WorldWideScience

Sample records for holocene climate event

  1. Early Holocene hydroclimate of Baffin Bay: Understanding the interplay between abrupt climate change events and ice sheet fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcoran, M. C.; Thomas, E. K.; Castañeda, I. S.; Briner, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the causes of ice sheet fluctuations resulting in sea level rise is essential in today's warming climate. In high-latitude ice-sheet-proximal environments such as Baffin Bay, studying both the cause and the rate of ice sheet variability during past abrupt climate change events aids in predictions. Past climate reconstructions are used to understand ice sheet responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. The 9,300 and 8,200 yr BP events are examples of abrupt climate change events in the Baffin Bay region during which there were multiple re-advances of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. High-resolution (decadal-scale) hydroclimate variability near the ice sheet margins during these abrupt climate change events is still unknown. We will generate a decadal-scale record of early Holocene temperature and precipitation using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes, δ2Hwax, from a lake sediment archive on Baffin Island, western Baffin Bay, to better understand abrupt climate change in this region. Shifts in temperature and moisture source result in changes in environmental water δ2H, which in turn is reflected in δ2Hwax, allowing for past hydroclimate to be determined from these compound-specific isotopes. The combination of terrestrial and aquatic δ2Hwax is used to determine soil evaporation and is ultimately used to reconstruct moisture variability. We will compare our results with a previous analysis of δ2Hwax and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a temperature and pH proxy, in lake sediment from western Greenland, eastern Baffin Bay, which indicates that cool and dry climate occurred in response to freshwater forcing events in the Labrador Sea. Reconstructing and comparing records on both the western and eastern sides of Baffin Bay during the early Holocene will allow for a spatial understanding of temperature and moisture balance changes during abrupt climate events, aiding in ice sheet modeling and predictions of future sea level

  2. An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

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    Yu Li

    Full Text Available The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to

  3. Holocene extreme hydrological events and their climatic implications: evidence from the middle Satluj valley, western Himalaya, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Shubhra; Shukla, Anil; Marh, Bhupinder; Bartarya, Sukesh; Juyal, Navin

    2016-04-01

    Extreme hydrological events and associated climatic processes are investigated and inferred through palaeoflood deposits preserved in the middle Satluj valley, India. Satluj River is the largest tributary of the Indus River having third largest catchment area in the Himalaya. Both Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the mid-latitude westerlies contribute to the hydrological budget of the river. The steep southern orographic front prevents the northward penetration of ISM, while the mid-latitude westerlies bring moisture in form of winter snow to the orogenic interiors. It has been observed that the floods in the Himalaya are intimately associated with the variability in the above climate systems. The optical chronology indicates that floods were clustered around three time domains. The oldest flood phase-1 is dated to ˜14-12 ka which climatically occurred during the initiation of the ISM after the Last Glacial Maximum. The second phase-2 is dated between 8-5 ka and is attributed to the moderate ISM. Whereas, the youngest phase-3 is assigned the Little Ice Age (LIA) and were associated with the variability in the mid-latitude westerlies. Geochemical analyses suggest that floods were generated in higher Himalayan crystalline (HHC) zone, as the extreme precipitation destabilised the precipitous slopes creating Landslide induced Lake Outbursts Floods (LLOFs). Further, the average interval between floods has decreased since 14 ka from 500 years, to 250 years and 100 years during respective flood phases. The southern slopes of Himalaya are influenced by both the monsoon and mid-latitude westerlies and any abrupt changes in the circulation pattern were found to associate with heavy rainfall events in this region. Although an interaction between the westerlies and the monsoon is implicated for extreme floods in the western Himalaya. However, exact mechanism of these interactions is still illusive except for the observational based studies which state that extreme floods

  4. Holocene Climate Variability on the Centennial and Millennial Time Scale

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    Eun Hee Lee

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available There have been many suggestions and much debate about climate variability during the Holocene. However, their complex forcing factors and mechanisms have not yet been clearly identified. In this paper, we have examined the Holocene climate cycles and features based on the wavelet analyses of 14C, 10Be, and 18O records. The wavelet results of the 14C and 10Be data show that the cycles of ~2180-2310, ~970, ~500-520, ~350-360, and ~210-220 years are dominant, and the ~1720 and ~1500 year cycles are relatively weak and subdominant. In particular, the ~2180-2310 year periodicity corresponding to the Hallstatt cycle is constantly significant throughout the Holocene, while the ~970 year cycle corresponding to the Eddy cycle is mainly prominent in the early half of the Holocene. In addition, distinctive signals of the ~210-220 year period corresponding to the de Vries cycle appear recurrently in the wavelet distribution of 14C and 10Be, which coincide with the grand solar minima periods. These de Vries cycle events occurred every ~2270 years on average, implying a connection with the Hallstatt cycle. In contrast, the wavelet results of 18O data show that the cycles of ~1900-2000, ~900-1000, and ~550-560 years are dominant, while the ~2750 and ~2500 year cycles are subdominant. The periods of ~2750, ~2500, and ~1900 years being derived from the 18O records of NGRIP, GRIP and GISP2 ice cores, respectively, are rather longer or shorter than the Hallstatt cycle derived from the 14C and 10Be records. The records of these three sites all show the ~900-1000 year periodicity corresponding to the Eddy cycle in the early half of the Holocene.

  5. Patagonian and southern South Atlantic view of Holocene climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, M. R.; Schaefer, J. M.; Strelin, J. A.; Denton, G. H.; Anderson, R. F.; Vandergoes, M. J.; Finkel, R. C.; Schwartz, R.; Travis, S. G.; Garcia, J. L.; Martini, M. A.; Nielsen, S. H. H.

    2016-06-01

    We present a comprehensive 10Be chronology for Holocene moraines in the Lago Argentino basin, on the east side of the South Patagonian Icefield. We focus on three different areas, where prior studies show ample glacier moraine records exist because they were formed by outlet glaciers sensitive to climate change. The 10Be dated records are from the Lago Pearson, Herminita Península-Brazo Upsala, and Lago Frías areas, which span a distance of almost 100 km adjacent to the modern Icefield. New 10Be ages show that expanded glaciers and moraine building events occurred at least at 6120 ± 390 (n = 13), 4450 ± 220 (n = 7), 1450 or 1410 ± 110 (n = 18), 360 ± 30 (n = 5), and 240 ± 20 (n = 8) years ago. Furthermore, other less well-dated glacier expansions of the Upsala Glacier occurred between 1400 and ∼1000 and ∼2300 and ∼2000 years ago. The most extensive glaciers occurred over the interval from ∼6100 to ∼4500 years ago, and their margins over the last ∼600 years were well within and lower than those in the middle Holocene. The 10Be ages agree with 14C-limiting data for the glacier histories in this area. We then link southern South American, adjacent South Atlantic, and other Southern Hemisphere records to elucidate broader regional patterns of climate and their possible causes. In the early Holocene, a far southward position of the westerly winds fostered warmth, small Patagonian glaciers, and reduced sea ice coverage over the South Atlantic. Although we infer a pronounced southward displacement of the westerlies during the early Holocene, these conditions did not occur throughout the southern mid-high latitudes, an important exception being over the southwest Pacific sector. Subsequently, a northward locus and/or expansion of the winds over the Patagonia-South Atlantic sector promoted the largest glaciers between ∼6100 and ∼4500 years ago and greatest sea ice coverage. Over the last few millennia, the South Patagonian Icefield has experienced

  6. A Holocene temperature reconstruction from northern New Zealand: a test of North Atlantic Holocene climate patterns as a global template

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    van den Bos, Valerie; Rees, Andrew; Newnham, Rewi; Augustinus, Paul

    2017-04-01

    Holocene climate variability has been well defined in the North Atlantic (Walker et al., 2012), but the global extent of this climate change stratigraphy is debatable. If the North Atlantic serves as a global template for Holocene climate, then New Zealand (NZ) is ideally positioned to test this assertion, as it is distal from the northern drivers. Additionally, it is one of the few landmasses in the Southern Hemisphere that is influenced by both sub-tropical and extra-tropical climatic regimes, which may be more important controls in the southern mid-latitudes. Although much work has been done to characterise the Holocene in NZ using pollen, most of these records lack the resolution or sensitivity to determine whether abrupt or short-lived events occurred. The NZ-INTIMATE climate event stratigraphy lacks a type section for the Holocene (Alloway et al., 2007). Records from northern NZ typically show little change, other than a possible early Holocene warming. Here, we present a combined pollen and chironomid temperature reconstruction from Lake Pupuke (northern NZ), the first of its kind in NZ that covers the entire Holocene. By comparing mean annual temperatures reconstructed from fossil pollen and mean summer temperatures inferred from chironomid remains, we can assess changes in seasonality. Mean summer temperature was reconstructed from the chironomid record using a weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) model (n comp = 2, r2booth = 0.77, RMSEP = 1.4°C) developed from an expanded version of Dieffenbacher-Krall et al. (2007)'s chironomid training set. Preliminary results show evidence for cool summers during the early Holocene as well as around the period of the Little Ice Age as defined in the North Atlantic region. These and other climate patterns determined from the Pupuke chironomid and pollen records will be compared with other evidence from northern New Zealand and with the North Atlantic record of Holocene climate variability. References

  7. Holocene climatic fluctuations from Lower Brahmaputra flood plain ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    BP which is well-matched with the peak period of the Holocene climatic optimum. However, during ... Warm Period and Little Ice Age (LIA) in this ... The maximum temperature is 30.4 ..... V 2007 Climatic changes during the last 1800 yrs from.

  8. Millennial Scale Variability of the AMOC and its Link to Climate During the Holocene

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    Thornalley, D. J.; Oppo, D.; Keigwin, L. D.; Hall, I. R.; Moffa Sanchez, P.

    2014-12-01

    centennial-millennial scale reductions in the inferred flow strength at sites bathed by Labrador Sea Water (LSW) which coincide with well-known climate events such as the Little Ice Age, suggesting an important role for LSW in Holocene centennial-millennial climate variability.

  9. North Atlantic-Fennoscandian Holocene climate trends and mechanisms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sejrup, H.P.; Seppä, H.; McKay, N.; Kaufman, D.S.; Geirsdottir, A.; de Vernal, A.; Renssen, H.; Husum, K.; Jennings, A.; Andrews, J.T.

    2016-01-01

    To investigate the mechanisms behind Holocene regional climate trends from north of 58°N in the North Atlantic-Fennoscandian region Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed and a temperature anomaly stack produced from 81 proxy derived summer temperature time series from 74 sites. The PC

  10. Holocene climate variability and oceanographic changes off western South Africa

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    Zhao, Xueqin; Dupont, Lydie; E Meadows, Michael; Schefuß, Enno; Bouimetarhan, Ilham; Wefer, Gerold

    2017-04-01

    South Africa is located at a critical transition zone between subtropical and warm-temperate climate zones influenced by the Indian and Atlantic oceans. Presently, the seasonal changes of atmospheric and oceanic systems induce a pronounced rainfall seasonality comprised of two different rainfall zones over South Africa. How did this seasonality develop during the Holocene? To obtain a better understanding of how South African climates have evolved during the Holocene, we conduct a comprehensive spatial-temporal approach including pollen and dinoflagellate cyst records from marine sediment samples retrieved from the Namaqualand mudbelt, a Holocene terrigenous mud deposit on the shelf of western South Africa. The representation of different vegetation communities in western South Africa is assessed through pollen analysis of surface sediments. This approach allows for climate reconstructions of the summer rainfall zone (SRZ) using Group 1 (Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Phragmites-type and Typha) and winter rainfall zone (WRZ) using Group 2 (Restionaceae, Ericaceae, Anthospermum, Stoebe/Elytropappus-type, Cliffortia, Passerina, Artemisia-type and Pentzia-type) from a single marine archive. The fossil pollen data from gravity core GeoB8331-4 indicate contrasting climate patterns in the SRZ and WRZ especially during the early and middle Holocene. The rainfall amount in the SRZ is dominated by insolation forcing, while in the WRZ it is mainly attributed to the latitudinal position of the southern westerlies. Dinoflagellate cyst data show significantly different oceanographic conditions associated with climate changes on land. High percentages of autotrophic taxa like Operculodinium centrocarpum and Spiniferites spp. indicate warm and stratified conditions during the early Holocene, suggesting reduced upwelling. In contrast, the middle Holocene is characterized by a strong increase in heterotrophic taxa in particular Lejeunecysta paratenella and Echinidinium spp., indicating cool

  11. Early Holocene climate oscillations recorded in three Greenland ice cores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Sune Olander; Vinther, Bo Møllesøe; Clausen, Henrik Brink

    2007-01-01

    around 9.3 ka before present, and the Preboreal Oscillation during the first centuries of the Holocene. For each of these sections, we present a d18O anomaly curve and a common accumulation signal that represents regional changes in the accumulation rate over the Greenland ice cap....... and accumulation anomalies that are common to the three cores in the Early Holocene (7.9–11.7 ka before present). Three time periods with significant and synchronous anomalies in the d18O and accumulation signals stand out: the well-known 8.2 ka event, an event of shorter duration but of almost similar amplitude...

  12. A multiple-proxy approach to understanding rapid Holocene climate change in Southeast Greenland

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    Davin, S. H.; Bradley, R. S.; Balascio, N. L.; de Wet, G.

    2012-12-01

    quantified via diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS), and validated by a traditional wet leaching method. The use of the emerging DRIFTS technology to obtain inferred biogenic silica concentrations has not been widely applied to arctic lacustrine sediments and will help to contribute to the presently limited pool of literature on the topic. Preliminary results of the data reveal high frequency fluctuations between laminations superimposed on long-term trends, which has revealed already some correlation with Holocene climatic events. The data provided by this barrage of proxies is to be presented and will contribute to the understanding of Holocene Arctic climate change at a sub-centennial scale.

  13. Holocene record of glacier variability from lake sediments reveals tripartite climate history for Svalbard

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    van der Bilt, Willem; Bakke, Jostein; Vasskog, Kristian; D`Andrea, William; Bradley, Raymond; Olafsdottir, Sædis

    2016-04-01

    The Arctic is responding sensitively to ongoing global climate change, warming and moistening faster than any other region on the planet. Holocene proxy paleoclimate time series are increasingly used to put this amplified response in perspective by understanding Arctic climate processes beyond the instrumental period. Glaciers rapidly respond to climate shifts as demonstrated by their current demise around the world. This response has a composite climate signature, marked by shifts in hydroclimate (winter precipitation) as well as (summer) temperature. Attendant changes in glacier size are recorded by variations in glacigenic rock flour that may be deposited in downstream lakes. Here, we present a Holocene reconstruction of glacier activity, based on sediments from Hajeren, a glacier-fed lake on northwest Spitsbergen in the High Arctic Svalbard archipelago. Owing to undisturbed sediments and robust age control, we could resolve variability on a sub-centennial scale. To ensure the accurate detection of glacier activity, we applied a toolbox of physical, magnetic and geochemical proxies in conjunction with multivariate statistics. Our findings indicate a three-stage Holocene climate history for Svalbard, driving by melt water pulses, episodic Atlantic cooling and a decline in orbitally driven summer insolation. Correspondence between inferred advances, including a Holocene glacier maximum around 9.5 ka BP, suggests forcing by the melting LIS during the Early Holocene. Following a late Holocene Thermal Maximum around 7.4 ka BP, glaciers disappeared from the catchment. Glaciers reformed around 4.2 ka BP during the regional onset of the Neoglacial, supporting previous findings. This transition did, however, not mark the onset of persistent glacier activity in the catchment, but a series of centennial-scale cycles of growth and decay, including events around 3.3 and 1.1 ka BP. As orbitally driven insolation declined towards the present, the glaciation threshold

  14. Sensitivity of sediment magnetic records to climate change during Holocene for the northern South China Sea

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    Ouyang, Tingping; Li, Mingkun; Zhao, Xiang; Zhu, Zhaoyu; Tian, Chengjing; Qiu, Yan; Peng, Xuechao; Hu, Qiao

    2016-05-01

    Magnetic property has been proved to be a sensitive proxy to climate change for both terrestrial and marine sediments. Based on the schedule frame established by AMS 14C dating of foraminifera, detail magnetic analyses were performed for core PC24 sediments at sampling intervals of 2 cm to discuss magnetic sensitivity of marine sediment to climate during Holocene for the northern South China Sea. The results indicated that: 1) Concentration dependent magnetic parameters are positive corresponding to variation of temperature. The frequency dependent susceptibility coefficient basically reflected the variation in humidity; 2) XARM/SIRM was more sensitive to detrital magnetite particles and SIRM/X was more effective to biogenic magnetite particles. Variations of XARM/SIRM and SIRM/X are corresponding to precipitation and temperature, respectively; 3) the Holocene Megathermal in the study area was identified as 7.5-3.4 cal. ka BP. The warmest stage of Holocene for the study area should be during 6.1 to 3.9 cal. ka BP; 4) The 8 ka cold event was characterized as cold and dry during 8.55 to 8.25 cal. ka BP; 5) During early and middle Holocene, the climate combinations were warm dry and cold wet. It turned to warm and wet after 2.7 cal. ka BP.

  15. Sensitivity of sediment magnetic records to climate change during Holocene for the northern South China Sea

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    Tingping eOuyang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Magnetic property has been proved to be a sensitive proxy to climate change for both terrestrial and marine sediments. Based on the schedule frame established by AMS 14C dating of foraminifera, detail magnetic analyses were performed for core PC24 sediments at sampling intervals of 2 cm to discuss magnetic sensitivity of marine sediment to climate during Holocene for the northern South China Sea. The results indicated that: 1 Concentration dependent magnetic parameters are positive corresponding to variation of temperature. The frequency dependent susceptibility coefficient basically reflected the variation in humidity; 2 XARM/SIRM was more sensitive to detrital magnetite particles and SIRM/X was more effective to biogenic magnetite particles. Variations of XARM/SIRM and SIRM/X are corresponding to precipitation and temperature, respectively; 3 the Holocene Megathermal in the study area was identified as 7.5-3.4 cal. ka BP. The warmest stage of Holocene for the study area should be during 6.1 to 3.9 cal. ka BP; 4 The 8 ka cold event was characterized as cold and dry during 8.55 to 8.25 cal. ka BP; 5 During early and middle Holocene, the climate combinations were warm dry and cold wet. It turned to warm and wet after 2.7 cal. ka BP.

  16. Paleohydrology reconstruction and Holocene climate variability in the South Adriatic Sea

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    G. Siani

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Holocene paleohydrology reconstruction is derived combining planktonic and benthic stable oxygen and carbon isotopes, sea surface temperatures (SSTs and oxygen isotope composition of seawater (δ18Ow from a high sedimentation core collected in the South Adriatic Sea (SAS. Core chronology is based on 10 AMS 14C measures on planktonic foraminifera and tephra layers. Results reveal two contrasted paleohydrological periods that reflect (i a marked lowering of δ18Ow/salinity during the early to mid-Holocene (11.5 ka to 6.3 ka, including the two-step sapropel S1 deposition, followed during the mid- to upper Holocene by (ii a prevailing period of increased salinity and enhanced arid conditions in the South Adriatic Basin. Superimposed on these trends, short-term centennial-scale hydrological events punctuated the Holocene period in the SAS. During the early to mid-Holocene, two main SST coolings together with prominent δ18Ow/salinity lowering delineate the sapropel S1 interruption and the post-sapropel phase between 7.3 to 6.3 ka. After 6 ka, centennial-scale δ18Ow and G. bulloides δ13C lowering, mostly centered between 3 to 0.6 ka, reflect short-term hydrological changes related to more intensive runoff of the Po and/or Apennine rivers. These short-term events, even of lesser amplitude compared to the early to mid-Holocene period, may have induced a lowering of sea surface density and consequently reduced and/or inhibited the formation of deep bottom waters in the SAS. Comparison of the emerging centennial- to millennial-scale hydrological record with previous climatic records from the central Mediterranean area and north of the Alps reveal possible synchronicities (within the radiocarbon-dating uncertainty between phases of lower salinity in the SAS and periods of wetter climatic conditions around the north-central Adriatic Sea. Finally, wavelet analyses provide new clues about the potential origin of climate variability in the SAS, confirming

  17. Biomarker records of Holocene climate variations in Asian interior

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    Song, M.; Liu, Z.; Liu, W.; Zhao, C.; Li, S.; He, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Understanding Holocene climate fluctuation may provide clues to projection of future climate change. Lake sediments in the arid central Asia (ACA), as an archive of past climate information, keep attracting considerable interest. We have retrieved several sediment cores from Lake Manas, an endorheic lake in Zunggar desert, Xinjiang Province, China. Biomarker proxies including alkenone Uk'37, %C37:4 and C37 concentration (C37 Conc), and physical proxies including density and magnetic susceptibility (MS) have been analyzed. We have found substantial climatic and environmental changes during the late Holocene. Density, MS and Uk'37 values are high during Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and C37 Conc is very low. During the Little Ice Age, density and MS decrease, Uk'37 values drop to near 0.1, C37 Conc is increased by 2 to 3 magnitude. Thus, warm and dry conditions dominated MWP while cold and wet conditions dominated LIA, a typical "Westerly" pattern which is opposite to the hydrological variation in Asian monsoonal regions. Biomarker records' correlation with solar irradiance (SI), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the 1000year ACA Moisture Index (ACAM), and the North Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) suggests SI as one of the forcing factor on temperature fluctuation and cold and wet LIA possibly resulting from westerly-jet shift, negative NAO oscillation and the lower evaporation induced by the decrease of temperature. Biomarker records for the whole Holocene will be also presented.

  18. Detrital events and hydroclimate variability in the Romanian Carpathians during the mid-to-late Holocene

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    Longman, Jack; Ersek, Vasile; Veres, Daniel; Salzmann, Ulrich

    2017-07-01

    The Romanian Carpathians are located at the confluence of three major atmospheric pressure fields: the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean and the Siberian. Despite its importance for understanding past human impact and climate change, high-resolution palaeoenvironmental reconstructions of Holocene hydroclimate variability, and in particular records of extreme precipitation events in the area, are rare. Here we present a 7500-year-long high-resolution record of past climatic change and human impact recorded in a peatbog from the Southern Carpathians, integrating palynological, geochemical and sedimentological proxies. Natural climate fluctuations appear to be dominant until 4500 years before present (yr BP), followed by increasing importance of human impact. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses document regular minerogenic deposition within the bog, linked to periods of high precipitation. Such minerogenic depositional events began 4000 yr BP, with increased depositional rates during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and during periods of societal upheaval (e.g. the Roman conquest of Dacia). The timing of minerogenic events appears to indicate a teleconnection between major shifts in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and hydroclimate variability in southeastern Europe, with increased minerogenic deposition correlating to low NAO index values. By linking the minerogenic deposition to precipitation variability, we state that this link persists throughout the mid-to-late Holocene.

  19. Climate fluctuations during the Holocene in NW Iberia: High and low latitude linkages

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    Pena, L. D.; Francés, G.; Diz, P.; Esparza, M.; Grimalt, J. O.; Nombela, M. A.; Alejo, I.

    2010-07-01

    High resolution benthic foraminiferal stable isotopes (δ 18O, δ 13C) and molecular biomarkers in the sediments are used here to infer rapid climatic changes for the last 8200 years in the Ría de Muros (NW Iberian Margin). Benthic foraminiferal δ 18O and δ 13C potentially register migrations in the position of the hydrographic front formed between two different intermediate water masses: Eastern North Atlantic Central Water of subpolar origin (ENACW sp) and subtropical origin (ENACW st). The molecular biomarkers in the sediment show a strong coupling between continental organic matter inputs and negative δ 13C values in benthic foraminifera. The rapid centennial and millennial events registered in these records have been compared with two well known North Atlantic Holocene records from the subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies off Cape Blanc, NW Africa and the subpolar Atlantic (Hematite Stained Grains percentage, subpolar North Atlantic). Comparison supports a strong link between high- and low-latitude climatic perturbations at centennial-millennial time scales during the Holocene. Spectral analyses also points to a pole-to-equator propagation of the so-called 1500 yr cycles. Our results demonstrate that during the Holocene, the NW Iberian Margin has undergone a series of rapid events which are likely triggered at high latitudes in the North Atlantic and are rapidly propagated towards lower latitudes. Conceivably, the propagation of these rapid climatic changes involves a shift in atmospheric and oceanic circulatory systems.

  20. Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activities in Languedoc (Southern France)

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    Azuara, J.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Lebreton, V.; Mazier, F.; Müller, S. D.; Dezileau, L.

    2015-09-01

    Holocene climate fluctuations and human activities since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediterranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to reconstruct Mediterranean paleoenvironments over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High resolution pollen analyses were undertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics over the last 4500 years. Results are compared with climatic, historical and archeological archives. A long-term aridification trend is highlighted during the Late Holocene and three superimposed arid events are recorded at 4600-4300, 2800-2400 and 1300-1100 cal BP. These periods of climatic instability coincide in time with the rapid climatic events depicted in the Atlantic Ocean (Bond et al., 2001). From the Bronze Age (4000 cal BP) to the end of the Iron Age (around 2000 cal BP), the spread of evergreen taxa and loss of forest cover result from anthropogenic impact. The Antiquity is characterized by a major reforestation event related to the concentration of rural activities and populations in coastal plains leading to forest recovery in the mountains. A major regional deforestation occurred at the beginning of the High Middle Ages. Around 1000 cal BP, forest cover is minimal while cover of olive, chestnut and walnut expands in relation to increasing human influence. The present day vegetation dominated by Mediterranean shrubland and pines has been in existence since the beginning of the 20th century.

  1. Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activity in Languedoc (southern France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azuara, J.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Lebreton, V.; Mazier, F.; Müller, S. D.; Dezileau, L.

    2015-12-01

    Holocene climate fluctuations and human activity since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediterranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to better understand Mediterranean paleoenvironmental changes over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High-resolution pollen analyses were undertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics over the last 4500 years. Results are compared with climatic, historical and archeological archives. A long-term aridification trend is highlighted during the late Holocene, and three superimposed arid events are recorded at 4600-4300, 2800-2400 and 1300-1100 cal BP. These periods of high-frequency climate variability coincide in time with the rapid climatic events observed in the Atlantic Ocean (Bond et al., 2001). From the Bronze Age (4000 cal BP) to the end of the Iron Age (around 2000 cal BP), the spread of sclerophyllous taxa and loss of forest cover result from anthropogenic impact. Classical Antiquity is characterized by a major reforestation event related to the concentration of rural activity and populations in coastal plains leading to forest recovery in the mountains. A major regional deforestation occurred at the beginning of the High Middle Ages. Around 1000 cal BP, forest cover is minimal while the cover of olive, chestnut and walnut expands in relation to increasing human influence. The present-day vegetation dominated by Mediterranean shrubland and pines has been in existence since the beginning of the 20th century.

  2. Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregoire, Lauren J.; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Valdes, Paul J.; Stevenson, Samantha

    2018-02-01

    The Laurentide ice sheet, which covered Canada during glacial periods, had a major influence on atmospheric circulation and surface climate, but its role in climate during the early Holocene (9-7 ka), when it was thinner and confined around Hudson Bay, is unclear. It has been suggested that the demise of the ice sheet played a role in the 8.2 ka event (an abrupt 1-3 °C Northern Hemisphere cooling lasting 160 years) through the influence of changing topography on atmospheric circulation. To test this hypothesis, and to investigate the broader implications of changing ice sheet topography for climate, we analyse a set of equilibrium climate simulations with ice sheet topographies taken at 500 year intervals from 9.5 to 8.0 ka. Between 9.5 and 8.0 ka, our simulations show a 2 °C cooling south of Iceland and a 1 °C warming between 40° and 50°N in the North Atlantic. These surface temperature changes are associated with a weakening of the subtropical and subpolar gyres caused by a decreasing wind stress curl over the mid-North Atlantic as the ice sheet lowers. The climate response is strongest during the period of peak ice volume change (9.5-8.5 ka), but becomes negligible after 8.5 ka. The climatic effects of the Laurentide ice sheet lowering during the Holocene are restricted to the North Atlantic sector. Thus, topographic forcing is unlikely to have played a major role in the 8.2 ka event and had only a small effect on Holocene climate change compared to the effects of changes in greenhouse gases, insolation and ice sheet meltwater.

  3. Quantifying the effects of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquer, Laurent; Gaillard, Marie-José; Sugita, Shinya; Poska, Anneli; Trondman, Anna-Kari; Mazier, Florence; Nielsen, Anne Birgitte; Fyfe, Ralph M.; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Smith, Benjamin; Kaplan, Jed O.; Alenius, Teija; Birks, H. John B.; Bjune, Anne E.; Christiansen, Jörg; Dodson, John; Edwards, Kevin J.; Giesecke, Thomas; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Kangur, Mihkel; Koff, Tiiu; Latałowa, Małgorzata; Lechterbeck, Jutta; Olofsson, Jörgen; Seppä, Heikki

    2017-09-01

    Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but quantification of the relative importance of climate and land use in influencing regional vegetation composition since the onset of agriculture is a topic that is rarely addressed. We present a novel approach that combines pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant cover with climate, anthropogenic land-cover and dynamic vegetation modelling results. This is used to quantify the relative impacts of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation at a sub-continental scale, i.e. northern and western Europe north of the Alps. We use redundancy analysis and variation partitioning to quantify the percentage of variation in vegetation composition explained by the climate and land-use variables, and Monte Carlo permutation tests to assess the statistical significance of each variable. We further use a similarity index to combine pollen-based REVEALS estimates with climate-driven dynamic vegetation modelling results. The overall results indicate that climate is the major driver of vegetation when the Holocene is considered as a whole and at the sub-continental scale, although land use is important regionally. Four critical phases of land-use effects on vegetation are identified. The first phase (from 7000 to 6500 BP) corresponds to the early impacts on vegetation of farming and Neolithic forest clearance and to the dominance of climate as a driver of vegetation change. During the second phase (from 4500 to 4000 BP), land use becomes a major control of vegetation. Climate is still the principal driver, although its influence decreases gradually. The third phase (from 2000 to 1500 BP) is characterised by the continued role of climate on vegetation as a consequence of late-Holocene climate shifts and specific climate events that influence vegetation as well as land use. The last phase (from 500 to 350 BP) shows an acceleration of vegetation changes, in particular during the last century, caused by new farming

  4. Holocene and latest Pleistocene climate and glacier fluctuations in Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford H.; Axford, Yarrow; Ólafsdóttir, Sædís

    2009-10-01

    Multiproxy climate records from Iceland document complex changes in terrestrial climate and glacier fluctuations through the Holocene, revealing some coherent patterns of change as well as significant spatial variability. Most studies on the Last Glacial Maximum and subsequent deglaciation reveal a dynamic Iceland Ice Sheet (IIS) that responded abruptly to changes in ocean currents and sea level. The IIS broke up catastrophically around 15 ka as the Polar Front migrated northward and sea level rose. Indications of regional advance or halt of the glaciers are seen in late Alleröd/early Younger Dryas time and again in PreBoreal time. Due to the apparent rise of relative sea level in Iceland during this time, most sites contain evidence for fluctuating, tidewater glacier termini occupying paleo fjords and bays. The time between the end of the Younger Dryas and the Preboreal was characterized by repeated jökulhlaups that eroded glacial deposits. By 10.3 ka, the main ice sheet was in rapid retreat across the highlands of Iceland. The Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) was reached after 8 ka with land temperatures estimated to be 3 °C higher than the 1961-1990 reference, and net precipitation similar to modern. Such temperatures imply largely ice-free conditions across Iceland in the early to mid-Holocene. Several marine and lacustrine sediment climate proxies record substantial summer temperature depression between 8.5 and 8 ka, but no moraines have been detected from that time. Termination of the HTM and onset of Neoglacial cooling took place sometime after 6 ka with increased glacier activity between 4.5 and 4.0 ka, intensifying between 3.0 and 2.5 ka. Although a distinct warming during the Medieval Warm Period is not dramatically apparent in Icelandic records, the interval from ca AD 0 to 1200 is commonly characterized by relative stability with slow rates of change. The literature most commonly describes Little Ice Age moraines (ca AD 1250-1900) as representing the

  5. Reconstruction of glacier variability from lake sediments reveals dynamic Holocene climate in Svalbard

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Bilt, Willem G. M.; Bakke, Jostein; Vasskog, Kristian; D'Andrea, William J.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Ólafsdóttir, Sædis

    2015-10-01

    The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth. Holocene proxy time-series are increasingly used to put this amplified response in perspective by understanding Arctic climate processes beyond the instrumental period. However, available datasets are scarce, unevenly distributed and often of coarse resolution. Glaciers are sensitive recorders of climate shifts and variations in rock-flour production transfer this signal to the lacustrine sediment archives of downstream lakes. Here, we present the first full Holocene record of continuous glacier variability on Svalbard from glacier-fed Lake Hajeren. This reconstruction is based on an undisturbed lake sediment core that covers the entire Holocene and resolves variability on centennial scales owing to 26 dating points. A toolbox of physical, geochemical (XRF) and magnetic proxies in combination with multivariate statistics has allowed us to fingerprint glacier activity in addition to other processes affecting the sediment record. Evidence from variations in sediment density, validated by changes in Ti concentrations, reveal glaciers remained present in the catchment following deglaciation prior to 11,300 cal BP, culminating in a Holocene maximum between 9.6 and 9.5 ka cal BP. Correspondence with freshwater pulses from Hudson Strait suggests that Early Holocene glacier advances were driven by the melting Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). We find that glaciers disappeared from the catchment between 7.4 and 6.7 ka cal BP, following a late Hypsithermal. Glacier reformation around 4250 cal BP marks the onset of the Neoglacial, supporting previous findings. Between 3380 and 3230 cal BP, we find evidence for a previously unreported centennial-scale glacier advance. Both events are concurrent with well-documented episodes of North Atlantic cooling. We argue that this brief forcing created suitable conditions for glaciers to reform in the catchment against a background of gradual orbital cooling. These findings highlight the

  6. Holocene vegetation and climate changes in the central Mediterranean inferred from a high-resolution marine pollen record (Adriatic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Combourieu-Nebout

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The high-resolution multiproxy study of the Adriatic marine core MD 90-917 provides new insights to reconstruct vegetation and regional climate changes over the southcentral Mediterranean during the Younger Dryas (YD and Holocene. Pollen records show the rapid forest colonization of the Italian and Balkan borderlands and the gradual installation of the Mediterranean association during the Holocene. Quantitative estimates based on pollen data provide Holocene precipitations and temperatures in the Adriatic Sea using a multi-method approach. Clay mineral ratios from the same core reflect the relative contributions of riverine (illite and smectite and eolian (kaolinite contributions to the site, and thus act as an additional proxy with which to evaluate precipitation changes in the Holocene. Vegetation climate reconstructions show the response to the Preboreal oscillation (PBO, most likely driven by changes in temperature and seasonal precipitation, which is linked to increasing river inputs from Adriatic rivers recorded by increase in clay mineral contribution to marine sediments. Pollen-inferred temperature declines during the early–mid Holocene, then increases during the mid–late Holocene, similar to southwestern Mediterranean climatic patterns during the Holocene. Several short vegetation and climatic events appear in the record, indicating the sensitivity of vegetation in the region to millennial-scale variability. Reconstructed summer precipitation shows a regional maximum (170–200 mm between 8000 and 7000 similar to the general pattern across southern Europe. Two important shifts in vegetation occur at 7700 cal yr BP (calendar years before present and between 7500 and 7000 cal yr BP and are correlated with increased river inputs around the Adriatic Basin respectively from the northern (7700 event and from the central Adriatic borderlands (7500–7000 event. During the mid-Holocene, the wet summers lead to permanent moisture all year

  7. Floodplain construction of the Rio Grande at El Paso, Texas, USA: response to Holocene climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Stephen A.; Peterson, John A.

    2013-04-01

    The Rio Grande is one of the larger rivers in North America, and the development of its floodplain is related to Holocene climate and climate change. The late Pleistocene through early Holocene channel is characterized by a meander or braided system with lateral cutting and backfilling, resulting in the valley-wide deposition of massive to cross-bedded, fine-to-medium textured sand. The late Pleistocene-early Holocene floodplain is also the sand source for the adjacent Bolson sand sheet. The sand sheet stopped accumulating new sand 5000 yrs ago, an event directly related to the shutting off of the sand supply caused by the deposition of overbank muds that covered and sealed the floodplain surface. During the middle Holocene, the river may have dried intermittently with the floodplain becoming deflated and local sand dunes forming on the floodplain. After 5000 yrs the climate was less arid and the river shifted to a regime of increased flooding and overbank deposition of silt and clay. By 2500 yrs, a late Holocene period of wet climate resulted in further overbank deposition and the formation of a cumulic Mollisol across the floodplain, the Socorro paleosol. The period of wet climate corresponds to the Audubon Neoglacial and active rock glaciers in the southern Rocky Mountains, speleothem growth in nearby caves, and other evidence for wet-cool conditions in the region. After 1000 yrs, the climate became drier, and the deposition and accumulation of overbank muds by the flooding Rio Grande came to a halt. Even though the river has flooded often in historic times, and presumably during late prehistoric times as well, there is little evidence for deposition of overbank sediments on the floodplain since A.D. 1000. Accordingly, the present-day surface of the Lower Valley is ten centuries old. Three channels occur on the US side of the Lower Valley floodplain, and during the past 2500 yrs stream flow has shifted from one to the other by the avulsion process of channel

  8. Holocene climate changes in eastern Beringia (NW North America) – A systematic review of multi-proxy evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Darrell S.; Axford, Yarrow L.; Henderson, Andrew C.G.; McKay, Nicolas P.; Oswald, W. Wyatt; Saenger, Casey; Anderson, R. Scott; Bailey, Hannah L.; Clegg, Benjamin; Gajewski, Konrad; Hu, Feng Sheng; Jones, Miriam C.; Massa, Charly; Routson, Cody C.; Werner, Al; Wooller, Matthew J.; Yu, Zicheng

    2016-01-01

    frequency of both peatland and thaw-lake initiation ages also occurred during the early Holocene. During the middle Holocene (8.2–4.2 ka), glaciers retreated as the regional average temperature increased to a maximum between 7 and 5 ka, as reflected in most proxy types. Following the middle Holocene thermal maximum, temperatures decreased starting between 4 and 3 ka, signaling the onset of Neoglacial cooling. Glaciers in the Brooks and Alaska Ranges advanced to their maximum Holocene extent as lakes generally rose to modern levels. Temperature differences for averaged 500-year time steps typically ranged by 1–2 °C for individual records in the Arctic Holocene database, with a transition to a cooler late Holocene that was neither abrupt nor spatially coherent. The longest and highest-resolution terrestrial water isotope records previously interpreted to represent changes in the Aleutian low-pressure system around this time are here shown to be largely contradictory. Furthermore, there are too few records with sufficient resolution to identify sub-centennial-scale climate anomalies, such as the 8.2 ka event. The review concludes by suggesting some priorities for future paleoclimate research in the region.

  9. Holocene environmental changes and climate development in Greenland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engels, Stefan; Helmens, Karin

    2010-12-01

    The primary aim of this report is to give an overview of the Holocene environmental and climatic changes in Greenland and to describe the development of the periglacial environment during the Holocene. Special emphasis is given to the influence of the ice sheet on its surroundings, both in terms of time (with respect to the response of the biosphere to deglaciation or ice sheet proximity) and in space (through the influence of the ice sheet on the regional climate, more specifically on temperature and aridity). Published records are reviewed, and regional trends are summarized. A range of different natural archives is available for such studies, including ice-core data, marine records, and continental sources of information, including peat profiles and lacustrine records. Because of the high number of lakes in all ice-free areas of Greenland, the lacustrine records offer the opportunity to get a spatial overview of past changes in environment and climate as well. This report focuses on (palaeo-) ecological studies, as it is intended to assemble basic information for future studies on adaptation of the biosphere to changes in climate. There is a bias towards pollen- and macro-remain-based reconstructions of past changes, as these dominate performed palaeoecological studies in Greenland; unfortunately, only a limited number of studies exist that include more modern proxies such as diatoms or chironomids (climate-indicators), but where available in the literature, these have been included. The report starts with an introduction where the current climatic and biological zonation of Greenland is discussed together with an overview of the geology of Greenland (on the full geological timescale) in order to put the following sections in perspective. Chapter 2 discusses the ice sheet history of Greenland from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) onward where special emphasis is given to the spatial variability of deglaciation at the onset of the Holocene. To enhance the

  10. Holocene environmental changes and climate development in Greenland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engels, Stefan; Helmens, Karin (Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    The primary aim of this report is to give an overview of the Holocene environmental and climatic changes in Greenland and to describe the development of the periglacial environment during the Holocene. Special emphasis is given to the influence of the ice sheet on its surroundings, both in terms of time (with respect to the response of the biosphere to deglaciation or ice sheet proximity) and in space (through the influence of the ice sheet on the regional climate, more specifically on temperature and aridity). Published records are reviewed, and regional trends are summarized. A range of different natural archives is available for such studies, including ice-core data, marine records, and continental sources of information, including peat profiles and lacustrine records. Because of the high number of lakes in all ice-free areas of Greenland, the lacustrine records offer the opportunity to get a spatial overview of past changes in environment and climate as well. This report focuses on (palaeo-) ecological studies, as it is intended to assemble basic information for future studies on adaptation of the biosphere to changes in climate. There is a bias towards pollen- and macro-remain-based reconstructions of past changes, as these dominate performed palaeoecological studies in Greenland; unfortunately, only a limited number of studies exist that include more modern proxies such as diatoms or chironomids (climate-indicators), but where available in the literature, these have been included. The report starts with an introduction where the current climatic and biological zonation of Greenland is discussed together with an overview of the geology of Greenland (on the full geological timescale) in order to put the following sections in perspective. Chapter 2 discusses the ice sheet history of Greenland from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) onward where special emphasis is given to the spatial variability of deglaciation at the onset of the Holocene. To enhance the

  11. Holocene climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenxiang; Niu, Jie; Ming, Qingzhong; Shi, Zhengtao; Lei, Guoliang; Huang, Linpei; Long, Xian'e.; Chang, Fengqin

    2018-05-01

    Climatic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon (ASWM) during the Holocene have become a topic of recent studies. It is important to understand the patterns and causes of Holocene climatic changes and their relationship with global changes. Based on the climate proxies and wavelet analysis of Lugu Lake in the ASWM region, the climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the ASWM region during the Holocene have been reconstructed with a high-precision chronology. The results indicate the intensification of ASWM began to increase with Northern Hemisphere low-latitude solar insolation (LSI) and solar activity during the early Holocene, and gradually decreased during the late Holocene, exhibiting an apparent synchrony with numerous records of ASWM region. Meanwhile, an apparent 1000-a quasi-periodic signal is present in the environment proxies, and it demonstrates that the environmental change in the ASWM region has been driven mainly by LSI and solar activity.

  12. Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanovic, R. F.; Gregoire, L. J.; Maycock, A.; Valdes, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Laurentide ice sheet, which covered Canada during glacial periods, had a major influence on atmospheric circulation and surface climate, but its role in climate during the early Holocene (9-7 ka), when it was thinner and confined around Hudson Bay, is unclear. It has been suggested that the demise of the ice sheet played a role in the 8.2 ka event (an abrupt 1-3 °C Northern Hemisphere cooling lasting 160 years) through the influence of changing topography on atmospheric circulation. To test this hypothesis, and to investigate the broader implications of changing ice sheet topography for climate, we analyse a set of equilibrium climate simulations with ice sheet topographies taken at 500 year intervals from 9.5 ka to 8.0 ka. Between 9.5 and 8.0 ka, our simulations show a 2 °C cooling south of Iceland and a 1 °C warming between 40-50° N in the North Atlantic. These surface temperature changes are associated with a weakening of the subtropical and subpolar gyres caused by a decreasing wind stress curl over the mid-North Atlantic as the ice sheet lowers. The climate response is strongest during the period of peak ice volume change (9.5 ka - 8.5 ka), but becomes negligible after 8.5 ka. The climatic effects of the Laurentide ice sheet lowering are restricted to the North Atlantic sector. Thus, topographic forcing did not play a significant role in the 8.2 ka event and had only a small effect on Holocene climate change compared to the effects of changes in greenhouse gases, insolation and ice sheet meltwater.

  13. Holocene Glacier Fluctuations in the Peruvian Andes Indicate Northern Climate Linkages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Licciardi, Joseph M.; Schaefer, Joerg M.; Taggart, Jean R.; Lund, David C.

    2009-09-01

    The role of the tropics in triggering, transmitting, and amplifying interhemispheric climate signals remains a key debate in paleoclimatology. Tropical glacier fluctuations provide important insight on regional paleoclimatic trends and forcings, but robust chronologies are scarce. Here, we report precise moraine ages from the Cordillera Vilcabamba (13°20‧S) of southern Peru that indicate prominent glacial events and associated climatic shifts in the outer tropics during the early Holocene and late in the “Little Ice Age” period. Our glacier chronologies differ from the New Zealand record but are broadly correlative with well-dated glacial records in Europe, suggesting climate linkages between the tropics and the North Atlantic region.

  14. Aquatic ecosystem responses to Holocene climate change and biome development in boreal, central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, Anson W.; Bezrukova, Elena V.; Leng, Melanie J.; Meaney, Miriam; Nunes, Ana; Piotrowska, Natalia; Self, Angela; Shchetnikov, Alexander; Shilland, Ewan; Tarasov, Pavel; Wang, Luo; White, Dustin

    2012-05-01

    Boreal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change, and severe ecological impacts in the near future are virtually certain to occur. We undertook a multiproxy study on an alpine lake (ESM-1) at the modern tree-line in boreal, southern Siberia. Steppe and tundra biomes were extensive in eastern Sayan landscapes during the early Holocene. Boreal forest quickly expanded by 9.1 ka BP, and dominated the landscape until c 0.7 ka BP, when the greatest period of compositional turnover occurred. At this time, alpine meadow landscape expanded and Picea obovata colonised new habitats along river valleys and lake shorelines, because of prevailing cool, moist conditions. During the early Holocene, chironomid assemblages were dominated by cold stenotherms. Diatoms for much of the Holocene were dominated by alkaliphilous, fragilarioid taxa, up until 0.2 ka BP, when epiphytic species expanded, indicative of increased habitat availability. C/N mass ratios ranged between 9.5 and 13.5 (11.1-15.8 C/N atomic ratios), indicative of algal communities dominating organic matter contributions to bottom sediments with small, persistent contributions from vascular plants. However, δ13C values increased steadily from -34.9‰ during the early Holocene (9.3 ka BP) to -24.8‰ by 0.6 ka BP. This large shift in magnitude may be due to a number of factors, including increasing within-lake productivity, increasing disequilibrium between the isotopic balance of the lake with the atmosphere as the lake became isotopically ‘mature’, and declining soil respiration linked to small, but distinct retreat in forest biomes. The influence of climatic variables on landscape vegetation was assessed using redundancy analysis (RDA), a linear, direct ordination technique. Changes in July insolation at 60 °N significantly explained over one-fifth of the variation in species composition, while changes in estimates of northern hemisphere temperature and ice-rafted debris events in the North Atlantic

  15. Timing, cause and consequences of mid-Holocene climate transition in the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Saraswat, R.; Naik, Dinesh K.; Nigam, R.; Gaur, A.S.

    -50,000 years cal BP. Radiocarbon 51, 1111-1150. Roberts, N., Brayshaw, D., Kuzucuoglu, C., Perez, R., Sadori, L., 2011. The mid-Holocene climatic transition in the Mediterranean: Causes and consequences. The Holocene 21, 3-13. Ruddiman, W.F., Ellis, E...

  16. Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes national parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Margaret; Douglas, Christine; Cole, K.L.; Winkler, Marge; Flaknes, Robyn

    2000-01-01

    We reconstruct Holocene climate history (last 10,000 years) for each of the U.S. National Park Service units in the western Great Lakes region in order to evaluate their sensitivity to global warming. Annual precipitation, annual temperature, and July and January temperatures were reconstructed by comparing fossil pollen in lake sediment with pollen in surface samples, assuming that ancient climates were similar to modern climate near analogous surface samples. In the early Holocene, most of the parks experienced colder winters, warmer summers, and lower precipitation than today. An exception is Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota where, by 8000 years ago, January temperatures were higher than today. The combination of high mean annual temperature and lower precipitation at Voyageurs resulted in a dry period between 8000 and 5000 years ago, similar to the Prairie Period in regions to the south and west. A mid-Holocene warm-dry period also occurred at other northern and central parks but was much less strongly developed. In southern parks there was no clear evidence of a mid-Holocene warm-dry period. These differences suggest that global model predictions of a warm, dry climate in the northern Great Plains under doubled atmospheric CO2 may be more applicable to Voyageurs than to the other parks. The contrast in reconstructed temperatures at Voyageurs and Isle Royale indicates that the ameliorating effect of the Great Lakes on temperatures has been in effect throughout the Holocene and presumably will continue in the future, thus reducing the potential for species loss caused by future temperature extremes. Increased numbers of mesic trees at all of the parks in the late Holocene reflect increasing annual precipitation. This trend toward more mesic conditions began 6000 years ago in the south and 4000 years ago in the north and increased sharply in recent millennia at parks located today in lake-effect snow belts. This suggests that lake-effect snowfall is

  17. Holocene hydrologic variation at Lake Titicaca, Bolivia/Peru, and its relationship to North Atlantic climate variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Garland, J.; Ekdahl, E.

    2005-10-01

    A growing number of sites in the Northern Hemisphere show centennial- to millennial-scale climate variation that has been correlated with change in solar variability or with change in North Atlantic circulation. However, it is unclear how (or whether) these oscillations in the climate system are manifest in the Southern Hemisphere because of a lack of sites with suitably high sampling resolution. In this paper, we reconstruct the lake-level history of Lake Titicaca, using the carbon isotopic content of sedimentary organic matter, to evaluate centennial- to millennial-scale precipitation variation and its phasing relative to sites in the Northern Hemisphere. The pattern and timing of lake-level change in Lake Titicaca is similar to the ice-rafted debris record of Holocene Bond events, demonstrating a possible coupling between precipitation variation on the Altiplano and North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The cold periods of the Holocene Bond events correspond with periods of increased precipitation on the Altiplano. Holocene precipitation variability on the Altiplano is anti-phased with respect to precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon region. More generally, the tropical Andes underwent large changes in precipitation on centennial-to-millennial timescales during the Holocene.

  18. Holocene evolution of the Tabasco delta – Mexico : impact of climate, volcanism and humans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nooren, C.A.M.

    2017-01-01

    This research revealed the impact of climate, volcanism and humans on the late Holocene evolution of a tropical delta in southern Mexico. Palynological, tephrochronological, limnological, geomorphological and sedimentological techniques have been applied to reconstruct the evolution of the

  19. Holocene geologic and climatic history around the Gulf of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, D.H.; Crowell, A.L.; Hamilton, T.D.; Finney, B.P.

    1998-01-01

    Though not as dramatic as during the last Ice Age, pronounced climatic changes occurred in the northeastern Pacific over the last 10,000 years. Summers warmer and drier than today's accompanied a Hypsithermal interval between 9 and 6 ka. Subsequent Neoglaciation was marked by glacier expansion after 5-6 ka and the assembly of modern-type plant communities by 3-4 ka. The Neoglacial interval contained alternating cold and warm intervals, each lasting several hundred years to one millennium, and including both the Medieval Warm Period (ca. AD 900-1350) and the Little Ice Age (ca. AD 1350-1900). Salmon abundance fluctuated during the Little Ice Age in response to local glaciation and probably also to changes in the intensity of the Aleutian Low. Although poorly understood at present, climate fluctuations at all time scales were intimately connected with oceanographic changes in the North Pacific Ocean. The Gulf of Alaska region is tectonically highly active, resulting in a history of frequent geological catastrophes during the Holocene. Twelve to 14 major volcanic eruptions occurred since 12 ka. At intervals of 20-100 years, large earthquakes have raised and lowered sea level instantaneously by meters and generated destructive tsunamis. Sea level has often varied markedly between sites only 50-100 km apart due to tectonism and the isostatic effects of glacier fluctuations.

  20. Mid-Holocene Climate and Culture Change in the Atacama Desert, Northern Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosjean, Martin; Núñez, Lautaro; Cartajena, Isabel; Messerli, Bruno

    1997-09-01

    Twenty archaeological campsites intercalated between more than 30 debris flows caused by heavy rainfall events between 6200 and 3100 14C yr B.P. have recently been discovered at Quebrada Puripica in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile. This record provides detailed information about extreme, short-lived climatic events during the hyperarid mid-Holocene period. For the first time, we found evidence of continuous human occupation in this area, filling the regional hiatus in the Atacama basin ("Silencio Arqueologico") between 8000 and 4800 14C yr B.P. The transformation of Early Archaic hunters into the complex Late Archaic cultural tradition was an adaptive process. During this time, the site was a local ecological refuge with abundant resources in a generally hostile environment.

  1. Proxy records of Holocene storm events in coastal barrier systems: Storm-wave induced markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goslin, Jérôme; Clemmensen, Lars B.

    2017-10-01

    Extreme storm events in the coastal zone are one of the main forcing agents of short-term coastal system behavior. As such, storms represent a major threat to human activities concentrated along the coasts worldwide. In order to better understand the frequency of extreme events like storms, climate science must rely on longer-time records than the century-scale records of instrumental weather data. Proxy records of storm-wave or storm-wind induced activity in coastal barrier systems deposits have been widely used worldwide in recent years to document past storm events during the last millennia. This review provides a detailed state-of-the-art compilation of the proxies available from coastal barrier systems to reconstruct Holocene storm chronologies (paleotempestology). The present paper aims (I) to describe the erosional and depositional processes caused by storm-wave action in barrier and back-barrier systems (i.e. beach ridges, storm scarps and washover deposits), (ii) to understand how storm records can be extracted from barrier and back-barrier sedimentary bodies using stratigraphical, sedimentological, micro-paleontological and geochemical proxies and (iii) to show how to obtain chronological control on past storm events recorded in the sedimentary successions. The challenges that paleotempestology studies still face in the reconstruction of representative and reliable storm-chronologies using these various proxies are discussed, and future research prospects are outlined.

  2. A multi-proxy reconstruction of Holocene climate change from Blessberg Cave, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Plessen, Birgit; Wenz, Sarah; Leonhardt, Jens; Tjallingii, Rik; Scholz, Denis; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Marwan, Norbert

    2016-04-01

    Although Holocene climate dynamics were relatively stable compared to glacial conditions, climatic changes had significant impact on ecosystems and human society on various timescales (Mayewski et al. 2004, Donges et al. 2015, Tan et al. 2015). Precious few high-resolution records on Holocene temperature and precipitation conditions in Central Europe are available (e.g., von Grafenstein et al. 1999, Fohlmeister et al. 2012). Here we present a speleothem-based reconstruction of past climate dynamics from Blessberg Cave, Thuringia, central Germany. Three calcitic stalagmites were recovered when the cave was discovered during tunneling operations in 2008. Samples BB-1, -2 and -3 were precisely dated by the 230Th/U-method, with errors between 10 and 160 years (2σ). The combined record covers large parts of the Holocene (10 - 0.4 ka BP). δ13C and δ18O were analysed at 100 μm resolution. To gain additional insights in infiltration conditions, Sr/Ca and S/Ca were measured on BB-1 and BB-3 using an Röntgenanalytik Eagle XXL μXRF scanner. Differences to other central European records (e.g., von Grafenstein et al. 1999, Fohlmeister et al. 2012) suggest complex interaction between multiple factors influencing speleothem δ18O in Blessberg Cave. Furthermore, no clear influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on our proxies is found. However, a link across the N Atlantic realm is indicated by a centennial-scale correlation between Blessberg δ18O values and minerogenic input into lake SS1220 in Greenland over the last 5 ka (Olsen et al. 2012). In addition, recurrence analysis indicates an imprint of Atlantic Bond events on Blessberg δ18O values (Marwan et al. 2014), corroborating the suggested link with high northern latitudes. Larger runoff into the Greenland lake seems to be associated with lower δ18O, higher δ13C and S/Ca ratios, as well as lower Sr/Ca ratios in Blessberg Cave speleothems. This might be linked to lower local temperature and/or changes in

  3. Impact of Earth's orbit and freshwater fluxes on Holocene climate mean seasonal cycle and ENSO characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braconnot, P.; Zheng, W. [unite mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Luan, Y. [unite mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Brewer, Simon [University of Wyoming, Department of Botany, Laramie, WY (United States)

    2012-03-15

    We use a state-of-the-art 3-dimensional coupled model to investigate the relative impact of long term variations in the Holocene insolation forcing and of a freshwater release in the North Atlantic. We show that insolation has a greater effect on seasonality and La Nina events and is the major driver of sea surface temperature changes. In contrast, the variations in precipitation reflect changes in El Nino events. The impact of ice-sheet melting may have offset the impact of insolation on El Nino Southern Oscillation variability at the beginning of the Holocene. These simulations provide a coherent framework to refine the interpretation of proxy data and show that changes in seasonality may bias the projection of relationships established between proxy indicators and climate variations in the east Pacific from present day records. (orig.)

  4. Reconstructing Holocene climate using a climate model: Model strategy and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberkorn, K.; Blender, R.; Lunkeit, F.; Fraedrich, K.

    2009-04-01

    An Earth system model of intermediate complexity (Planet Simulator; PlaSim) is used to reconstruct Holocene climate based on proxy data. The Planet Simulator is a user friendly general circulation model (GCM) suitable for palaeoclimate research. Its easy handling and the modular structure allow for fast and problem dependent simulations. The spectral model is based on the moist primitive equations conserving momentum, mass, energy and moisture. Besides the atmospheric part, a mixed layer-ocean with sea ice and a land surface with biosphere are included. The present-day climate of PlaSim, based on an AMIP II control-run (T21/10L resolution), shows reasonable agreement with ERA-40 reanalysis data. Combining PlaSim with a socio-technological model (GLUES; DFG priority project INTERDYNAMIK) provides improved knowledge on the shift from hunting-gathering to agropastoral subsistence societies. This is achieved by a data assimilation approach, incorporating proxy time series into PlaSim to initialize palaeoclimate simulations during the Holocene. For this, the following strategy is applied: The sensitivities of the terrestrial PlaSim climate are determined with respect to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Here, the focus is the impact of regionally varying SST both in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The inverse of these sensitivities is used to determine the SST conditions necessary for the nudging of land and coastal proxy climates. Preliminary results indicate the potential, the uncertainty and the limitations of the method.

  5. New evidence for "far-field" Holocene sea level oscillations and links to global climate records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, N. D.; Welsh, K. J.; Clark, T. R.; Feng, Y.-x.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Zhao, J.-x.

    2018-04-01

    Rising sea level in the coming century is of significant concern, yet predicting relative sea level change in response to eustatic sea level variability is complex. Potential analogues are provided by the recent geological past but, until recently, many sea level reconstructions have been limited to millennial scale interpretations due to age uncertainties and paucity in proxy derived records. Here we present a sea level history for the tectonically stable "far-field" Great Barrier Reef, Australia, derived from 94 high precision uranium-thorium dates of sub-fossil coral microatolls. Our results provide evidence for at least two periods of relative sea level instability during the Holocene. These sea level oscillations are broadly synchronous with Indo-Pacific negative sea surface temperature anomalies, rapid global cooling events and glacial advances. We propose that the pace and magnitude of these oscillations are suggestive of eustatic/thermosteric processes operating in conjunction with regional climatic controls.

  6. A Geochemical and Sedimentary Record of High Southern Latitude Holocene Climate Evolution from Lago Fagnano, Tierra del Fuego

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moy, C M; Dunbar, R B; Guilderson, T P; Waldmann, N; Mucciarone, D A; Recasens, C; Austin, J A; Anselmetti, F S

    2010-11-19

    Situated at the southern margin of the hemispheric westerly wind belt and immediately north of the Antarctic Polar Frontal zone, Tierra del Fuego is well-positioned to monitor coupled changes in the ocean-atmosphere system of the high southern latitudes. Here we describe a Holocene paleoclimate record from sediment cores obtained from Lago Fagnano, a large lake in southern Tierra del Fuego at 55{sup o}S, to investigate past changes in climate related to these two important features of the global climate system. We use an AMS radiocarbon chronology for the last 8,000 years based on pollen concentrates, thereby avoiding contamination from bedrock-derived lignite. Our chronology is consistent with a tephrochronologic age date for deposits from the middle Holocene Volcan Hudson eruption. Combining bulk organic isotopic ({delta}{sup 13}C and {delta}{sup 15}N) and elemental (C and N) parameters with physical sediment properties allow us to better understand sediment provenance and transport mechanisms and to interpret Holocene climate and tectonic change during the last 8,000 years. Co-variability and long-term trends in C/N ratio, carbon accumulation rate, and magnetic susceptibility reflect an overall Holocene increase in the delivery of terrestrial organic and lithogenic material to the deep eastern basin. We attribute this variability to westerly wind-derived precipitation. Increased wind strength and precipitation in the late Holocene drives the Nothofagus forest eastward and enhances run-off and terrigenous inputs to the lake. Superimposed on the long-term trend are a series of abrupt 9 negative departures in C/N ratio, which constrain the presence of seismically-driven mass flow events in the record. We identify an increase in bulk {delta}{sup 13}C between 7,000 and 5,000 cal yr BP that we attribute to enhanced aquatic productivity driven by warmer summer temperatures. The Lago Fagnano {delta}{sup 13}C record shows similarities with Holocene records of sea surface

  7. Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activities in Languedoc (Southern France)

    OpenAIRE

    J. Azuara; N. Combourieu-Nebout; V. Lebreton; F. Mazier; S. D. Müller; L. Dezileau

    2015-01-01

    Holocene climate fluctuations and human activities since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediterranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to reconstruct Mediterranean paleoenvironments over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High resolution pollen analyses were undertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics ove...

  8. Holocene glacier variability: three case studies using an intermediate-complexity climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weber, S.L.; Oerlemans, J.

    2003-01-01

    Synthetic glacier length records are generated for the Holocene epoch using a process-based glacier model coupled to the intermediate-complexity climate model ECBilt. The glacier model consists of a massbalance component and an ice-flow component. The climate model is forced by the insolation change

  9. Quantitative Holocene climatic reconstructions for the lower Yangtze region of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianyong; Dodson, John; Yan, Hong; Wang, Weiming; Innes, James B.; Zong, Yongqiang; Zhang, Xiaojian; Xu, Qinghai; Ni, Jian; Lu, Fengyan

    2018-02-01

    Quantitative proxy-based and high-resolution palaeoclimatic datasets are scarce for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River (LYR) basin. This region is in a transitional vegetation zone which is climatologically sensitive; and as a birthplace for prehistorical civilization in China, it is important to understand how palaeoclimatic dynamics played a role in affecting cultural development in the region. We present a pollen-based and regionally-averaged Holocene climatic twin-dataset for mean total annual precipitation (PANN) and mean annual temperature (TANN) covering the last 10,000 years for the LYR region. This is based on the technique of weighted averaging-partial least squares regression to establish robust calibration models for obtaining reliable climatic inferences. The pollen-based reconstructions generally show an early Holocene climatic optimum with both abundant monsoonal rainfall and warm thermal conditions, and a declining pattern of both PANN and TANN values in the middle to late Holocene. The main driving forces behind the Holocene climatic changes in the LYR area are likely summer solar insolation associated with tropical or subtropical macro-scale climatic circulations such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Regional multi-proxy comparisons indicate that the Holocene variations in precipitation and temperature for the LYR region display an in-phase relationship with other related proxy records from southern monsoonal China and the Indian monsoon-influenced regions, but are inconsistent with the Holocene moisture or temperature records from northern monsoonal China and the westerly-dominated region in northwestern China. Overall, our comprehensive palaeoclimatic dataset and models may be significant tools for understanding the Holocene Asian monsoonal evolution and for anticipating its future dynamics in eastern Asia.

  10. Climate variability during the deglaciation and Holocene in a high-altitude alpine lake deduced from the sedimentary record from Laguna Seca, Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camuera, Jon; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; José Ramos-Román, María; García-Alix, Antonio; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco; Anderson, R. Scott

    2017-04-01

    High-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF), magnetic susceptibility (MS), color and lithological analyses have been carried out on a 3.6 m-long sediment core from Laguna Seca, a high-elevation dry lake from Sierra Nevada mountain range, southern Spain. This is the longest sedimentary record retrieved from an alpine lake in southern Iberian Peninsula. Besides, alpine lakes are very sensitive environments to climate changes and previous studies showed that Laguna Seca could provide an excellent record to identify millennial-scale climate variations during deglaciation and the whole Holocene. XRF analyses, in particular high calcium and low K/Ca ratios, show aridity phases, very well represented during Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Younger Dryas (YD). Arid events are also shown at ca. 8.1 ka BP, ca. 4.4 ka BP and the latest Holocene. On the other hand, negative values in calcium and positive values in K/Ca appear in the Bølling-Allerød (BA) and during the early Holocene until ca. 6 ka BP, indicating more humidity and higher run-off. A progressive aridification trend is also observed in the Holocene, changing from more humid conditions during the early Holocene to more aridity during the late Holocene.

  11. Pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene vegetation and climate in southern Italy: the case of Lago Trifoglietti

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Joannin

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A high-resolution pollen record from Lago Trifoglietti in Calabria (southern Italy provides new insights into the paleoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic changes which characterise the Holocene period in the southern Italy. The chronology is based on 11 AMS radiocarbon dates from terrestrial organic material. The Holocene history of the vegetation cover shows the persistence of an important and relatively stable Fagus forest present over that entire period, offering a rare example of a beech woodstand able to withstand climate changes for more than 11 000 yr. Probably in relation with early Holocene dry climate conditions which affected southern Italy, the Trifoglietti pollen record supports a southward delay in thermophyllous forest expansion dated to ca. 13 500 cal BP at Monticchio, ca. 11 000 cal BP at Trifoglietti, and finally ca. 9800 cal BP in Sicily. Regarding the human impact history, the Trifoglietti pollen record shows only poor imprints of agricultural activities and anthopogenic indicators, apart from those indicating pastoralism activities beneath forest cover. The selective exploitation of Abies appears to have been the strongest human impact on the Trifoglietti surroundings. On the basis of (1 a specific ratio between hygrophilous and terrestrial taxa, and (2 the Modern Analogue Technique, the pollen data collected at Lago Trifoglietti led to the establishment of two palaeoclimatic records tracing changes in (1 lake depth and (2 annual precipitation. On a millennial scale, these records give evidence of increasing moisture from ca. 11 000 to ca. 9400 cal BP and maximum humidity from ca. 9400 to ca. 6200 cal BP, prior to a general trend towards the drier climate conditions that have prevailed up to the present. In addition, several successive centennial-scale oscillations appear to have punctuated the entire Holocene. The identification of a cold dry event around 11 300 cal BP, responsible for a marked decline in

  12. Holocene fluctuations in human population demonstrate repeated links to food production and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bevan, Andrew; Colledge, Sue; Fuller, Dorian; Fyfe, Ralph; Shennan, Stephen; Stevens, Chris

    2017-12-05

    We consider the long-term relationship between human demography, food production, and Holocene climate via an archaeological radiocarbon date series of unprecedented sampling density and detail. There is striking consistency in the inferred human population dynamics across different regions of Britain and Ireland during the middle and later Holocene. Major cross-regional population downturns in population coincide with episodes of more abrupt change in North Atlantic climate and witness societal responses in food procurement as visible in directly dated plants and animals, often with moves toward hardier cereals, increased pastoralism, and/or gathered resources. For the Neolithic, this evidence questions existing models of wholly endogenous demographic boom-bust. For the wider Holocene, it demonstrates that climate-related disruptions have been quasi-periodic drivers of societal and subsistence change. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  13. Attribution of climate extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Shepherd, Theodore G.

    2015-08-01

    There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

  14. Mid-Holocene to Present Climate Transition in Tropical South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turcq, B.; Cordeiro, R.; Sifeddine, A.; Braconnot, P.; Dias, P. S.; Costa, R.; Jorgetti, T.

    2008-12-01

    The classical illustration of Holocene climate changes in tropical South America is the huge rising of Titicaca lake level from 4400 to 4000 cal BP. Because the Amazon basin is the source of Andean rainfalls we have explored Amazonian data of climate changes during the Holocene to better understand the cause of this abrupt transition. Amazonian data confirm the existence of mid-Holocene dryness: (1) lacustrine level studies show a lower precipitation/evaporation budget than present, with the lowest lake levels between 8500 and 6800 cal BP; (2) although the dominant Holocene vegetation has always been the rainforest in the heart of Amazonia, this forest expanded towards the northwestern and southwestern regions from 6800 to 1550 cal BP, moreover, pioneer elements of the rainforest developed during the mid-Holocene and the best example is those of Cecropia, between 9000 and 5000 cal BP. (3) soil d13C indicates a forest expansion over savannas areas in Roraima (north), Mato Grosso and Rondonia (southwest), during the Holocene. (4) the mid-Holocene (8000- 4000 cal BP) is characterized by repeated occurrences of forest fires, marked by the presence of charcoals in soils and lacustrine sediments. However these different records are not characterized by abrupt transitions at the end of the Middle Holocene in Amazonia. In the Andean records there is a clear north-south shift in the timing of the transition. Analysis of coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model simulations suggest that convection in Amazon basin is directly controlled by insolation leading to an almost linear response of local climate to the global forcing. Differently, in the eastern and south-western regions where the rain is brought by the South American Monsoon, the climate transition appears more abrupt. It may be because the involved climate mechanisms are more complex and depend on Ocean/Atmosphere/Vegetation coupled process (ITCZ position, ZCAS formation, etc.). Tectonic movements or threshold links to

  15. Holocene climate variability in the western Mediterranean through a multiproxy analysis from Padul peat bog (Sierra Nevada, Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos-Román, María J.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Camuera, Jon; García-Alix, Antonio; Anderson, R. Scott; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Sachse, Dirk

    2017-04-01

    The Iberian Peninsula, located in the Mediterranean area, is an interesting location for paleoclimate studies due to its geographic situation between arid and humid climates. Sediments from peat bogs and lakes from Sierra Nevada, in southeastern Iberian Peninsula, have been very informative in terms of how vegetation and wetland environments were impacted by Holocene climate change. These studies are essential if we want to understand the past climate change in the area, which is the key to identify the possible environmental response of the Sierra Nevada ecosystems to future climate scenarios. Padul basin, located in the southwest of the Sierra Nevada mountain range, contains a ca. 100 m-thick peat bog sedimentary sequence that was deposited during the past 1 Ma making this area interesting for paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic reconstructions. A new 43 m-long sedimentary record has recently been retrieved from the Padul peat bog. In this study we have developed a multiproxy analysis of the Holocene part of the Padul-15-05 core including pollen analysis, XRF-core scanner, magnetic susceptibility and organic geochemistry, supported by an age control based on AMS radiocarbon dates, providing with information about vegetation and climate variability during the past 9.9 cal ka BP. This multiproxy reconstruction of the Padul-15-05 evidences the Mediterranean as a sensitive area with respect to global-scale climate system, showing relevant climate episodes such as the ca. 8, 7.5, 6.5 and 5.5 cal ka BP events during the early and middle Holocene. The trend to aridification to the late Holocene is interrupted by more arid and humid periods as the Iberian Roman Humid Period (from ca. 3 to 1.6 cal ka BP), the Dark Ages (from ca. 1.5 to 1.1 cal ka BP), the Medieval Climate Anomaly (from ca. 1.1 to 1.3 cal ka BP) and the Little Ice Age period (from ca. 500 to 100 cal yr BP).

  16. The 9.2 ka event in Asian summer monsoon area: the strongest millennial scale collapse of the monsoon during the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenchao; Yan, Hong; Dodson, John; Cheng, Peng; Liu, Chengcheng; Li, Jianyong; Lu, Fengyan; Zhou, Weijian; An, Zhisheng

    2018-04-01

    Numerous Holocene paleo-proxy records exhibit a series of centennial-millennial scale rapid climatic events. Unlike the widely acknowledged 8.2 ka climate anomaly, the likelihood of a significant climate excursion at around 9.2 cal ka BP, which has been notably recognized in some studies, remains to be fully clarified in terms of its magnitude and intensity, as well as its characteristics and spatial distributions in a range of paleoclimatic records. In this study, a peat sediment profile from the Dajiuhu Basin in central China was collected with several geochemical proxies and a pollen analysis carried out to help improve understanding of the climate changes around 9.2 cal ka BP. The results show that the peat development was interrupted abruptly at around 9.2 cal ka BP, when the chemical weathering strength decreased and the tree-pollen declined. This suggests that a strong drier regional climatic event occurred at around 9.2 cal ka BP in central China, which was, in turn, probably connected to the rapid 9.2 ka climate event co-developing worldwide. In addition, based on the synthesis of our peat records and the other Holocene hydrological records from Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region, we further found that the 9.2 ka event probably constituted the strongest abrupt collapse of the Asian monsoon system during the full Holocene interval. The correlations between ASM and the atmospheric 14C production rate, the North Atlantic drift ice records and Greenland temperature indicated that the weakened ASM event at around 9.2 cal ka BP could be interpreted by the co-influence of external and internal factors, related to the changes of the solar activity and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

  17. Holocene climate aridification trend and human impact interrupted by millennial- and centennial-scale climate fluctuations from a new sedimentary record from Padul (Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos-Román, María J.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Camuera, Jon; García-Alix, Antonio; Anderson, R. Scott; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Carrión, José S.

    2018-01-01

    Holocene centennial-scale paleoenvironmental variability has been described in a multiproxy analysis (i.e., lithology, geochemistry, macrofossil, and microfossil analyses) of a paleoecological record from the Padul Basin in Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula. This sequence covers a relevant time interval hitherto unreported in the studies of the Padul sedimentary sequence. The ˜ 4700-year record has preserved proxies of climate variability, with vegetation, lake levels, and sedimentological change during the Holocene in one of the most unique and southernmost wetlands in Europe. The progressive middle and late Holocene trend toward arid conditions identified by numerous authors in the western Mediterranean region, mostly related to a decrease in summer insolation, is also documented in this record; here it is also superimposed by centennial-scale variability in humidity. In turn, this record shows centennial-scale climate oscillations in temperature that correlate with well-known climatic events during the late Holocene in the western Mediterranean region, synchronous with variability in solar and atmospheric dynamics. The multiproxy Padul record first shows a transition from a relatively humid middle Holocene in the western Mediterranean region to more aridity from ˜ 4700 to ˜ 2800 cal yr BP. A relatively warm and humid period occurred between ˜ 2600 and ˜ 1600 cal yr BP, coinciding with persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions and the historic Iberian-Roman Humid Period. Enhanced arid conditions, co-occurring with overall positive NAO conditions and increasing solar activity, are observed between ˜ 1550 and ˜ 450 cal yr BP (˜ 400 to ˜ 1400 CE) and colder and warmer conditions occurred during the Dark Ages and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), respectively. Slightly wetter conditions took place during the end of the MCA and the first part of the Little Ice Age, which could be related to a change towards negative NAO conditions

  18. Holocene climate aridification trend and human impact interrupted by millennial- and centennial-scale climate fluctuations from a new sedimentary record from Padul (Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Ramos-Román

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Holocene centennial-scale paleoenvironmental variability has been described in a multiproxy analysis (i.e., lithology, geochemistry, macrofossil, and microfossil analyses of a paleoecological record from the Padul Basin in Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula. This sequence covers a relevant time interval hitherto unreported in the studies of the Padul sedimentary sequence. The  ∼  4700-year record has preserved proxies of climate variability, with vegetation, lake levels, and sedimentological change during the Holocene in one of the most unique and southernmost wetlands in Europe. The progressive middle and late Holocene trend toward arid conditions identified by numerous authors in the western Mediterranean region, mostly related to a decrease in summer insolation, is also documented in this record; here it is also superimposed by centennial-scale variability in humidity. In turn, this record shows centennial-scale climate oscillations in temperature that correlate with well-known climatic events during the late Holocene in the western Mediterranean region, synchronous with variability in solar and atmospheric dynamics. The multiproxy Padul record first shows a transition from a relatively humid middle Holocene in the western Mediterranean region to more aridity from  ∼  4700 to  ∼  2800 cal yr BP. A relatively warm and humid period occurred between  ∼  2600 and  ∼  1600 cal yr BP, coinciding with persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO conditions and the historic Iberian–Roman Humid Period. Enhanced arid conditions, co-occurring with overall positive NAO conditions and increasing solar activity, are observed between  ∼  1550 and  ∼  450 cal yr BP (∼  400 to  ∼  1400 CE and colder and warmer conditions occurred during the Dark Ages and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, respectively. Slightly wetter conditions took place during the end of

  19. Holocene vegetation and climate history of the northern Bighorn Basin, southern Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyford, M.E.; Betancourt, J.L.; Jackson, S.T.

    2002-01-01

    Records of Holocene vegetation and climate change at low elevations (treeline indicates wetter conditions between 4400 and 2700 14C yr B.P. Increased aridity after 2700 14C yr B.P. initiated expansion of J. osteosperma from the east to west side of the Pryor Mountains. ?? 2002 University of Washington.

  20. Simulation of the Holocene climate evolution in Nothern Africa: the termination of the African Humid Period.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renssen, H.; Brovkin, V.; Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H.

    2006-01-01

    The Holocene climate evolution in Northern Africa is studied in a 9000-yr-long transient simulation with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model forced by changes in insolation and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The model simulates in the monsoonal domains a significant decrease in

  1. Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activity in Languedoc (southern France)

    OpenAIRE

    Azuara , J; Combourieu-Nebout , N; Lebreton , V; Mazier , F; Müller , S D; Dezileau , L ,

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Holocene climate fluctuations and human activity since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediter-ranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to better understand Mediterranean pale-oenvironmental changes over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High-resolution pollen analyses were un-dertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamic...

  2. Lateglacial and Holocene climate, disturbance and permafrost peatland dynamics on the Seward Peninsula, western Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Stephanie D.; Yu, Zicheng; Jones, Miriam C.

    2013-01-01

    Northern peatlands have accumulated large carbon (C) stocks, acting as a long-term atmospheric C sink since the last deglaciation. How these C-rich ecosystems will respond to future climate change, however, is still poorly understood. Furthermore, many northern peatlands exist in regions underlain by permafrost, adding to the challenge of projecting C balance under changing climate and permafrost dynamics. In this study, we used a paleoecological approach to examine the effect of past climates and local disturbances on vegetation and C accumulation at a peatland complex on the southern Seward Peninsula, Alaska over the past ∼15 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP). We analyzed two cores about 30 m apart, NL10-1 (from a permafrost peat plateau) and NL10-2 (from an adjacent thermokarst collapse-scar bog), for peat organic matter (OM), C accumulation rates, macrofossil, pollen and grain size analysis.A wet rich fen occurred during the initial stages of peatland development at the thermokarst site (NL10-2). The presence of tree pollen from Picea spp. and Larix laricinia at 13.5–12.1 ka indicates a warm regional climate, corresponding with the well-documented Bølling–Allerød warm period. A cold and dry climate interval at 12.1–11.1 ka is indicated by the disappearance of tree pollen and increase in Poaceae pollen and an increase in woody material, likely representing a local expression of the Younger Dryas (YD) event. Following the YD, the warm Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) is characterized by the presence of Populus pollen, while the presence of Sphagnum spp. and increased C accumulation rates suggest high peatland productivity under a warm climate. Toward the end of the HTM and throughout the mid-Holocene a wet climate-induced several major flooding disturbance events at 10 ka, 8.1 ka, 6 ka, 5.4 ka and 4.7 ka, as evidenced by decreases in OM, and increases in coarse sand abundance and aquatic fossils (algae Chara and water fleas Daphnia). The initial

  3. A review on Holocene climate changes in Indian subcontinent

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naidu, P.D.

    and terrestrial records document that the climate started shifting from humid to dry arid from 5 ka and reached an arid phase at 3.5 ka. In other tropics of the world also onset of arid climate was documented during the same period. The onset of arid climate at 3...

  4. Millennial- to century-scale variability in Gulf of Mexico Holocene climate records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poore, R.Z.; Dowsett, H.J.; Verardo, S.; Quinn, T.M.

    2003-01-01

    Proxy records from two piston cores in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) provide a detailed (50-100 year resolution) record of climate variability over the last 14,000 years. Long-term (millennial-scale) trends and changes are related to the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions and movement of the average position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) related to orbital forcing. The ??18O of the surface-dwelling planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber show negative excursions between 14 and 10.2 ka (radiocarbon years) that reflect influx of meltwater into the western GOM during melting of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The relative abundance of the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer is related to transport of Caribbean water into the GOM. Maximum transport of Caribbean surface waters and moisture into the GOM associated with a northward migration of the average position of the ITCZ occurs between about 6.5 and 4.5 ka. In addition, abundance variations of G. sacculifer show century-scale variability throughout most of the Holocene. The GOM record is consistent with records from other areas, suggesting that century-scale variability is a pervasive feature of Holocene climate. The frequency of several cycles in the climate records is similar to cycles identified in proxy records of solar variability, indicating that at least some of the century-scale climate variability during the Holocene is due to external (solar) forcing.

  5. Chrysophyte cysts from lake sediments reveal the submillennial winter/spring climate variability in the northwestern Mediterranean region throughout the Holocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pla, Sergi [Queen' s University, PEARL, Department of Biology, Kingston, ON (Canada); Catalan, Jordi [CSIC, CSIC-UB Limnology Group, Centre for Advanced Studies of Blanes (CEAB), Blanes (Spain)

    2005-02-01

    In the last decade, much effort was dedicated to the reconstruction of past climate at high temporal resolution. Here, we show the suitability of chrysophyte cysts from lake sediments for revealing continental climate variability when used in sensitive sites, such as those in high mountains. We demonstrate that altitude is a main factor influencing the present distribution of chrysophytes and develop a transfer function to evaluate the local ''altitude anomaly'' on a lake site throughout time. Based on our knowledge of chrysophyte ecology, the altitude anomalies are interpreted as winter/spring climate signatures. The method was applied to a Holocene record from a lake in the Pyrenees showing submillennial climatic variability in this northwestern Mediterranean zone. A warming trend was present from the early Holocene to 4 kyear BP. Comparison with pollen-based reconstructions of summer temperatures denoted a contrasting decrease in continentality between the two parts of the Holocene. Oscillations of 1 cycle per ca. 2,000 years appeared throughout the record. The warmest Holocene winters were recorded during the Medieval Warm Period at ca. AD900 and 450 and the Roman Warm Period (2.7-2.4 kyear BP). Winters in the period AD1,050-1,175 were inferred to be as cold as in the Little Ice Age. The period between 3 and 7 kyear BPshowed lower intensity in the fluctuations than in early and late Holocene. The cold event, 8,200 years ago, appeared embedded in a warm fluctuation. Another cold fluctuation was recorded around 9 kyear BP, which is in agreement with Irish and Greenland records. (orig.)

  6. Dust fluxes and iron fertilization in Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Fabrice; Tagliabue, Alessandro; Shaffer, Gary; Lamy, Frank; Winckler, Gisela; Farias, Laura; Gallardo, Laura; De Pol-Holz, Ricardo

    2015-07-01

    Mineral dust aerosols play a major role in present and past climates. To date, we rely on climate models for estimates of dust fluxes to calculate the impact of airborne micronutrients on biogeochemical cycles. Here we provide a new global dust flux data set for Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions based on observational data. A comparison with dust flux simulations highlights regional differences between observations and models. By forcing a biogeochemical model with our new data set and using this model's results to guide a millennial-scale Earth System Model simulation, we calculate the impact of enhanced glacial oceanic iron deposition on the LGM-Holocene carbon cycle. On centennial timescales, the higher LGM dust deposition results in a weak reduction of pump. This is followed by a further ~10 ppm reduction over millennial timescales due to greater carbon burial and carbonate compensation.

  7. Detecting vegetation-precipitation feedbacks in mid-Holocene North Africa from two climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yi; Notaro, Michael; Liu, Zhengyu; Gallimore, Robert; Levis, Samuel; Kutzbach, John E.

    2008-03-31

    Using two climate-vegetation model simulations from the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 2), we investigate vegetation-precipitation feedbacks across North Africa during the mid-Holocene. From mid-Holocene snapshot runs of FOAM and CCSM2, we detect a negative feedback at the annual timescale with our statistical analysis. Using the Monte- Carlo bootstrap method, the annual negative feedback is further confirmed to be significant in both simulations. Additional analysis shows that this negative interaction is partially caused by the competition between evaporation and transpiration in North African grasslands. Furthermore, we find the feedbacks decrease with increasing timescales, and change signs from positive to negative at increasing timescales in FOAM. The proposed mechanism for this sign switch is associated with the different persistent timescales of upper and lower soil water contents, and their interactions with vegetation and atmospheric precipitation.

  8. Holocene vegetation and climate change on the Haanja heights, South-East Estonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saarse, Leili; Rajamaee, Raivo

    1997-01-01

    The development of forests on the Haanja Heights has been controlled by external factors, including climate, soils, hydrology, and human impact. The sediment sequence from Lake Kirikumaee, which covers about 12 000 years, records the vegetation history throughout the Late Glacial and Holocene. In the Alleroed, woodland tundra with sparse birch and willow was established. Grass-shrub tundra in the Younger Dryas was replaced by birch forest in the Pre-Boreal. During the Holocene two major shifts in vegetation dynamics occurred: the first about 8500 BP with a sharp decline in Betula-Pinus forest and development of broad-leaved forest, and the second about 3500 BP, with a decline in broad-leaved forest and regeneration of Pinus-Betula forest with a high share of Picea. The climate modelling, based on pollen record and lake-level changes, suggest cold, severe climate with low precipitation values in the early Pre-Boreal. Between 9500-8500 BP the climate was rather stable. The lake level first rose, then stabilized, and finally dropped. The sharp climate amelioration in the late Boreal together with the humidity increase resulted in a lake-level rise. The decreased precipitation and rather high summer temperatures, increased evapotranspiration, and reduced water balance are characteristic of the Sub-Boreal. Since 3500 BP, the climate deteriorated and mixed coniferous forest started to dominate. Several small climatic fluctuations, including the Little Ice Age cooling, have been traced by modelling. (author)

  9. Novel sedimentological fingerprints link shifting depositional processes to Holocene climate transitions in East Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Bilt, Willem G. M.; Rea, Brice; Spagnolo, Matteo; Roerdink, Desiree L.; Jørgensen, Steffen L.; Bakke, Jostein

    2018-05-01

    The Arctic warms faster than any other region of our planet. Besides melting glaciers, thawing permafrost and decreasing sea-ice, this amplified response affects earth surface processes. This geomorphological expression of climate change may alter landscapes and increase the frequency and magnitude of geohazards like floods or mass-movements. Beyond the short span of sparse monitoring time series, geological archives provide a valuable long-term context for future risk assessment. Lake sediment sequences are particularly promising in this respect as continuous recorders of surface process change. Over the past decade, the emergence of new techniques that characterize depositional signatures in more detail has enhanced this potential. Here, we present a well-dated Holocene-length lake sediment sequence from Ammassalik Island on southeast Greenland. This area is particularly sensitive to regional shifts in the Arctic climate system due to its location near the sea-ice limit, the Greenland Ice Sheet and the convergence of polar and Atlantic waters. The expression of Holocene change is fingerprinted using physical (grain size, organic content, density), visual (3-D Computed Tomography) and geochemical (X-Ray Fluorescence, X-Ray Diffraction) evidence. We show that three sharp transitions characterize the Holocene evolution of Ymer Lake. Between 10 and 9.5 cal. ka BP, rapid local glacier loss from the lake catchment culminated in an outburst flood. Following a quiescent Holocene climatic optimum, Neoglacial cooling, lengthening lake ice cover and shifting wind patterns prompted in-lake avalanching of sediments from 4.2 cal. ka BP onwards. Finally, glaciers reformed in the catchment around 1.2 cal. ka BP. The timing of these shifts is consistent with the regional expression of deglaciation, Neoglacial cooling and Little Ice Age-type glacier growth, respectively. The novel multi-proxy approach applied in this study rigorously links depositional sediment signatures to

  10. Impact of a drier Early-Mid-Holocene climate upon Amazonian forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayle, Francis E; Power, Mitchell J

    2008-05-27

    This paper uses a palaeoecological approach to examine the impact of drier climatic conditions of the Early-Mid-Holocene (ca 8000-4000 years ago) upon Amazonia's forests and their fire regimes. Palaeovegetation (pollen data) and palaeofire (charcoal) records are synthesized from 20 sites within the present tropical forest biome, and the underlying causes of any emergent patterns or changes are explored by reference to independent palaeoclimate data and present-day patterns of precipitation, forest cover and fire activity across Amazonia. During the Early-Mid-Holocene, Andean cloud forest taxa were replaced by lowland tree taxa as the cloud base rose while lowland ecotonal areas, which are presently covered by evergreen rainforest, were instead dominated by savannahs and/or semi-deciduous dry forests. Elsewhere in the Amazon Basin there is considerable spatial and temporal variation in patterns of vegetation disturbance and fire, which probably reflects the complex heterogeneous patterns in precipitation and seasonality across the basin, and the interactions between climate change, drought- and fire susceptibility of the forests, and Palaeo-Indian land use. Our analysis shows that the forest biome in most parts of Amazonia appears to have been remarkably resilient to climatic conditions significantly drier than those of today, despite widespread evidence of forest burning. Only in ecotonal areas is there evidence of biome replacement in the Holocene. From this palaeoecological perspective, we argue against the Amazon forest 'dieback' scenario simulated for the future.

  11. Holocene vegetation, fire and climate interactions on the westernmost fringe of the Mediterranean Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-Molino, César; García-Antón, Mercedes; Postigo-Mijarra, José M.; Morla, Carlos

    2013-01-01

    A new palaeoecological sequence from the western Iberian Central Range significantly contributes to the knowledge on the Holocene vegetation dynamics in central Iberia. This sequence supports the existence of time-transgressive changes in the vegetation cover during the beginning of the Holocene over these central Iberian mountains, specifically the replacement of boreal birch-pine forests with Mediterranean communities. Anthracological analyses also indicate the replacement of boreal pines (Pinus sylvestris) with Mediterranean ones (Pinus pinaster) during the early Holocene. The observed vegetation changes were generally synchronous with climatic phases previously reconstructed for the western Mediterranean region, and they suggest that the climatic trends were most similar to those recorded in the northern Mediterranean region and central Europe. Several cycles of secondary succession after fire ending with the recovery of mature forest have been identified, which demonstrates that the vegetation of western Iberia was highly resilient to fire disturbance. However, when the recurrence of fire crossed a certain threshold, the original forests were not able to completely recover and shrublands and grasslands became dominant; this occurred approximately 5800-5400 cal yr BP. Afterwards, heathlands established as the dominant vegetation, which were maintained by frequent and severe wildfires most likely associated with human activities in a climatic framework that was less suitable for temperate trees. Finally, our palaeoecological record provides guidelines on how to manage protected areas in Mediterranean mountains of southwestern Europe, especially regarding the conservation and restoration of temperate communities that are threatened there such as birch stands.

  12. Large floods and climatic change during the Holocene on the Ara River, Central Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossman, Michael J.

    2001-07-01

    A reconstruction of part of the Holocene large flood record for the Ara River in central Japan is presented. Maximum intermediate gravel-size dimensions of terrace and modern floodplain gravels were measured along an 18-km reach of the river and were used in tractive force equations to estimate minimum competent flood depths. Results suggest that the magnitudes of large floods on the Ara River have varied in a non-random fashion since the end of the last glacial period. Large floods with greater magnitudes occurred during the warming period of the post-glacial and the warmer early to middle Holocene (to ˜5500 years BP). A shift in the magnitudes of large floods occurred ˜5500-5000 years BP. From this time, during the cooler middle to late Holocene, large floods generally had lower magnitudes. In the modern period, large flood magnitudes are the largest in the data set. As typhoons are the main cause of large floods on the Ara River in the modern record, the variation in large flood magnitudes suggests that the incidence of typhoon visits to the central Japan changed as the climate changed during the Holocene. Further, significant dates in the large flood record on the Ara River correspond to significant dates in Europe and the USA.

  13. Cultural responses to climate change during the late Holocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    deMenocal, P B

    2001-04-27

    Modern complex societies exhibit marked resilience to interannual-to- decadal droughts, but cultural responses to multidecadal-to-multicentury droughts can only be addressed by integrating detailed archaeological and paleoclimatic records. Four case studies drawn from New and Old World civilizations document societal responses to prolonged drought, including population dislocations, urban abandonment, and state collapse. Further study of past cultural adaptations to persistent climate change may provide valuable perspective on possible responses of modern societies to future climate change.

  14. Paleoclimate from ice cores : abrupt climate change and the prolonged Holocene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, J.W.C.

    2001-01-01

    Ice cores provide valuable information about the Earth's past climates and past environments. They can also help in predicting future climates and the nature of climate change. Recent findings in ice cores have shown large and abrupt climate changes in the past. This paper addressed abrupt climate changes and the peculiar nature of the Holocene. An abrupt climate change is a shift of 5 degrees C in mean annual temperature in less than 50 years. This is considered to be the most threatening aspect of potential future climate change since it leaves very little time for adaptation by humans or any other part of the Earth's ecosystem. This paper also discussed the arrival of the next glacial period. In the past 50 years, scientists have recognized the importance of the Earth's orbit around the sun in pacing the occurrence of large ice sheets. The timing of orbital forcing suggests that the Earth is overdue for the next major glaciation. The reason for this anomaly was discussed. Abrupt climate shifts seem to be caused by mode changes in sensitive points in the climate system, such as the North Atlantic Deep Water Formation and its impact on sea ice cover in the North Atlantic. These changes have been observed in ice cores in Greenland but they are not restricted to Greenland. Evidence from Antarctic ice cores suggest that abrupt climate change may also occur in the Southern Hemisphere. The Vostok ice core in Antarctica indicates that the 11,000 year long interglacial period that we are in right now is longer than the previous four interglacial periods. The Holocene epoch is unique because both methane and carbon dioxide rise in the last 6,000 years, an atypical response from these greenhouse gases during an interglacial period. It was suggested that the rise in methane can be attributed to human activities. 13 refs., 2 figs

  15. Climate and vegetation changes during the Lateglacial and early–middle Holocene at Lake Ledro (southern Alps, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Joannin

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Adding to the on-going debate regarding vegetation recolonisation (more particularly the timing in Europe and climate change since the Lateglacial, this study investigates a long sediment core (LL081 from Lake Ledro (652 m a.s.l., southern Alps, Italy. Environmental changes were reconstructed using multiproxy analysis (pollen-based vegetation and climate reconstruction, lake levels, magnetic susceptibility and X-ray fluorescence (XRF measurements recorded climate and land-use changes during the Lateglacial and early–middle Holocene. The well-dated and high-resolution pollen record of Lake Ledro is compared with vegetation records from the southern and northern Alps to trace the history of tree species distribution. An altitude-dependent progressive time delay of the first continuous occurrence of Abies (fir and of the Larix (larch development has been observed since the Lateglacial in the southern Alps. This pattern suggests that the mid-altitude Lake Ledro area was not a refuge and that trees originated from lowlands or hilly areas (e.g. Euganean Hills in northern Italy. Preboreal oscillations (ca. 11 000 cal BP, Boreal oscillations (ca. 10 200, 9300 cal BP and the 8.2 kyr cold event suggest a centennial-scale climate forcing in the studied area. Picea (spruce expansion occurred preferentially around 10 200 and 8200 cal BP in the south-eastern Alps, and therefore reflects the long-lasting cumulative effects of successive boreal and the 8.2 kyr cold event. The extension of Abies is contemporaneous with the 8.2 kyr event, but its development in the southern Alps benefits from the wettest interval 8200–7300 cal BP evidenced in high lake levels, flood activity and pollen-based climate reconstructions. Since ca. 7500 cal BP, a weak signal of pollen-based anthropogenic activities suggest weak human impact. The period between ca. 5700 and ca. 4100 cal BP is considered as a transition period to colder and wetter conditions (particularly during

  16. Strength of forest-albedo feedback in mid-Holocene climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Otto

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Reconstructions of the mid-Holocene climate, 6000 years before present, suggest that spring temperatures were higher at high northern latitudes compared to the pre-industrial period. A positive feedback between expansion of forest and climate presumably contributed to this warming. In the presence of snow, forests have a lower albedo than grass land. Therefore, the expansion of forest likely favoured a warming in spring, counteracting the lower insolation at the mid-Holocene.

    We investigate the sensitivity of the vegetation-atmosphere interaction under mid-Holocene orbital forcing with respect to the strength of the forest-albedo feedback by using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere-vegetation model (ECHAM5/JSBACH. We perform two sets of model simulations: a first set of simulations with a relatively weak reduction of albedo of snow by forest; and a second set of simulations with a relatively strong reduction of the albedo of snow by forest.

    We show that the parameterisation of the albedo of snow leads to uncertainties in the temperature signal. Compared to the set with weak snow masking, the simulations with strong snow masking reveal a spring warming that is three times higher, by 0.34 °C north of 60° N. This warming is related to a forest expansion of only 13%.

  17. Anticyclonic atmospheric circulation as an analogue for the warm and dry mid-Holocene summer climate in central Scandinavia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Antonsson

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate reconstructions from central Scandinavia suggest that annual and summer temperatures were rising during the early Holocene and reached their maximum after 8000 cal yr BP. The period with highest temperatures was characterized by increasingly low lake-levels and dry climate, with driest and warmest conditions at about 7000 to 5000 cal yr BP. We compare the reconstructed climate pattern with simulations of a climate model for the last 9000 years and show that the model, which is predominantly driven by solar insolation patterns, suggests less prominent mid-Holocene dry and warm period in Scandinavia than the reconstructions. As an additional explanation for the reconstructed climate, we argue that the trend from the moist early Holocene towards dry and warm mid-Holocene was caused by a changing atmospheric circulation pattern with a mid-Holocene dominance of summer-time anticyclonic circulation. An extreme case of the anticyclonic conditions is the persistent blocking high, an atmospheric pressure pattern that at present often causes long spells of particularly dry and warm summer weather, or "Indian summers". The argument is tested with daily instrumental temperature and precipitation records in central Sweden and an objective circulation classification based on surface air pressure over the period 1900–2002. We conclude that the differences between the precipitation and temperature climates under anticyclonic and non-anticyclonic conditions are significant. Further, warm and dry combination, as indicated by mid-Holocene reconstructions, is a typical pattern under anticyclonic conditions. These results indicate that the presented hypothesis for the mid-Holocene climate is likely valid.

  18. Holocene climate dynamics in the central part of the East European plain (Russia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novenko, Elena

    2013-04-01

    The Holocene climate and vegetation dynamics in the broad-leaved forest zone of the central part of the East European plain have been reconstructed on the base of pollen, plant macrofossil, testate amoebae and radiocarbon data from the mire Klukva (N 53.834812, E 36.252488), located in the kast depression in the Upper Oka River basin (Tula region, European Russia). The reconstruction of main parameters of past climate (the mean annual temperature precipitation) was carried out by the "Best Modern Analog" approach. Reconstructions of vegetation show that in the early Holocene the territory was occupied mainly by birch and pine-birch forests. Significant changes in the plant cover of the Upper Oka River basin are attributed to the 7.5 cal kyr BP). The climatic conditions were favorable for development of the broad-leaved forests those persisted in this area up to industrial period. In the 17th century, when the population density greatly increased and watersheds were ploughed, natural vegetation communities were gradually destroyed and transformed into agricultural landscapes. According to obtained climatic reconstructions the period 10-8.5 cal kyr BP was relatively cold and wet, when the mean annual temperature was in 3°C lower and precipitation was in 50-100 mm higher then nowadays. The significant climate warming occurred in about 7.0-5.0 cal kyr BP (The Holocene thermal maximum): the mean annual temperature in 2°C exceeded the modern value and precipitation was close to that. The environment conditions were drier due to decrease of effective moisture. In the second part of the Holocene the sequence of second-, and even third-order climatic oscillations expressed against the background of the overall slight trend towards cooling have been determined. The most pronounced cool and wet intervals were reconstructed in 2.5-2.0 cal kyr BP and 1.5-1.3 cal kyr BP. The mean annual temperature decreased in 1.5-2 °C and precipitation rose in 200 mm in compare to modern

  19. Holocene Tree Line and Climate Change on the Queen Charlotte Islands, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellatt, Marlow G.; Mathewes, Rolf W.

    1997-07-01

    Palynological study of two subalpine ponds on the Queen Charlotte Islands reveals changes in tree line and climate during the Holocene. The findings agree with previous reconstructions, from nearby Louise Pond on the Queen Charlotte Islands, that suggest a warmer-than-present climate and higher-than-present tree lines in the early Holocene (ca. 9600-6600 14C yr B.P.). Basal ages at SC1 Pond and Shangri-La Bog indicate that the basins did not hold permanent water before 7200 14C yr B.P., consistent with a warmer and drier early Holocene previously inferred from Louise Pond. Pollen and plant macrofossils indicate the initial establishment of subalpine conditions by 6090 ± 90 14C yr B.P., similar to the 5790 ± 130 14C yr B.P. age for cooling inferred from Louise Pond. Conditions similar to present were established at SC1 Pond by 3460 ± 100 14C yr B.P., confirming the previous estimate of 3400 14C yr B.P. at Louise Pond. This 3400 14C yr B.P. vegetation shift on the Queen Charlotte Islands corresponds with the beginning of the Tiedemann glacial advance in the south-coastal mountains of British Columbia (ca. 3300 14C yr B.P.), the Peyto and Robson glacial advances between 3300 and 2800 14C yr B.P. in the Rocky Mountains, and climatic cooling inferred from palynological studies throughout southern British Columbia, northern Washington, and southeast Alaska. These findings confirm that changes in regional climate influenced changes in vegetation in coastal British Columbia.

  20. Pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene climate variability in the Eifel region evaluated with stable isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kühl, Norbert; Moschen, Robert; Wagner, Stefanie

    2010-05-01

    sediments might strongly react to anthropogenic deforestation, as carbon isotope time series from the adjacent Lake Holzmaar suggest. Reconstructions based on pollen with the pdf-method are robust to the human impact during the last 4000 years, but do not reproduce the fine scale climate variability that can be derived from the stable isotope series (Kühl et al., in press). In contrast, reconstructions on the basis of pollen data show relatively pronounced climate variability (here: January temperature) during the Mid-Holocene, which is known from many other European records. The oxygen isotope time series as available now indicate that at least some of the observed variability indeed reflects climate variability. However, stable carbon isotopes show little concordance. At this stage our results point in the direction that 1) the isotopic composition might reflect a shift in influencing factors during the Holocene, 2) climate trends can robustly be reconstructed with the pdf method and 3) fine scale climate variability can potentially be reconstructed using the pdf-method, given that climate sensitive taxa at their distribution limit are present. The latter two conclusions are of particular importance for the reconstruction of climatic trends and variability of interglacials older than the Holocene, when sites are rare and pollen is often the only suitable proxy in terrestrial records. Kühl, N., Moschen, R., Wagner, S., Brewer, S., Peyron, O., in press. A multiproxy record of Late Holocene natural and anthropogenic environmental change from the Sphagnum peat bog Dürres Maar, Germany: implications for quantitative climate reconstructions based on pollen. J. Quat. Sci., DOI: 10.1002/jqs.1342. Available online. Moschen, R., Kühl, N., Rehberger, I., Lücke, A., 2009. Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in sub-fossil Sphagnum: Assessment of their applicability for palaeoclimatology. Chemical Geology 259, 262-272.

  1. Late-glacial and Holocene Vegetation and Climate Variability, Including Major Droughts, in the Sky Lakes Region of Southeastern New York State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menking, Kirsten M.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Anderson, Roger Y.

    2012-01-01

    Sediment cores from Lakes Minnewaska and Mohonk in the Shawangunk Mountains of southeastern New York were analyzed for pollen, plantmacrofossils, macroscopic charcoal, organic carbon content, carbon isotopic composition, carbon/nitrogen ratio, and lithologic changes to determine the vegetation and landscape history of the greater Catskill Mountain region since deglaciation. Pollen stratigraphy generally matches the New England pollen zones identified by Deevey (1939) and Davis (1969), with boreal genera (Picea, Abies) present during the late Pleistocene yielding to a mixed Pinus, Quercus and Tsuga forest in the early Holocene. Lake Minnewaska sediments record the Younger Dryas and possibly the 8.2 cal kyr BP climatic events in pollen and sediment chemistry along with an 1400 cal yr interval of wet conditions (increasing Tsuga and declining Quercus) centered about 6400 cal yr BP. BothMinnewaska andMohonk reveal a protracted drought interval in themiddle Holocene, 5700-4100 cal yr BP, during which Pinus rigida colonized the watershed, lake levels fell, and frequent fires led to enhanced hillslope erosion. Together, the records show at least three wet-dry cycles throughout the Holocene and both similarities and differences to climate records in New England and central New York. Drought intervals raise concerns for water resources in the New York City metropolitan area and may reflect a combination of enhanced La Niña, negative phase NAO, and positive phase PNA climatic patterns and/or northward shifts of storm tracks.

  2. Erosion during extreme flood events dominates Holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Edwin R C; Attal, Mikaël; Niedermann, Samuel; Kirstein, Linda A; Dugmore, Andrew J; Naylor, Mark

    2015-02-24

    Extreme flood events have the potential to cause catastrophic landscape change in short periods of time (10(0) to 10(3) h). However, their impacts are rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution (>10(3) y), because the mechanisms of erosion during such floods are poorly constrained. Here we use topographic analysis and cosmogenic (3)He surface exposure dating of fluvially sculpted surfaces to determine the impact of extreme flood events within the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon (northeast Iceland) and to constrain the mechanisms of bedrock erosion during these events. Surface exposure ages allow identification of three periods of intense canyon cutting about 9 ka ago, 5 ka ago, and 2 ka ago during which multiple large knickpoints retreated large distances (>2 km). During these events, a threshold flow depth was exceeded, leading to the toppling and transportation of basalt lava columns. Despite continuing and comparatively large-scale (500 m(3)/s) discharge of sediment-rich glacial meltwater, there is no evidence for a transition to an abrasion-dominated erosion regime since the last erosive event because the vertical knickpoints have not diffused over time. We provide a model for the evolution of the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon through the reconstruction of the river profile and canyon morphology at different stages over the last 9 ka and highlight the dominant role played by extreme flood events in the shaping of this landscape during the Holocene.

  3. EVALUATING SHORT-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE LATE HOLOCENE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph H. Hartman

    1999-09-01

    This literature study investigated methods and areas to deduce climate change and climate patterns, looking for short-term cycle phenomena and the means to interpret them. Many groups are actively engaged in intensive climate-related research. Ongoing research might be (overly) simplified into three categories: (1) historic data on weather that can be used for trend analysis and modeling; (2) detailed geological, biological (subfossil), and analytical (geochemical, radiocarbon, etc.) studies covering the last 10,000 years (about since last glaciation); and (3) geological, paleontological, and analytical (geochemical, radiometric, etc.) studies over millions of years. Of importance is our ultimate ability to join these various lines of inquiry into an effective means of interpretation. At this point, the process of integration is fraught with methodological troubles and misconceptions about what each group can contribute. This project has met its goals to the extent that it provided an opportunity to study resource materials and consider options for future effort toward the goal of understanding the natural climate variation that has shaped our current civilization. A further outcome of this project is a proposed methodology based on ''climate sections'' that provides spatial and temporal correlation within a region. The method would integrate cultural and climate data to establish the climate history of a region with increasing accuracy with progressive study and scientific advancement (e. g., better integration of regional and global models). The goal of this project is to better understand natural climatic variations in the recent past (last 5000 years). The information generated by this work is intended to provide better context within which to examine global climate change. The ongoing project will help to establish a basis upon which to interpret late Holocene short-term climate variability as evidenced in various studies in the northern

  4. Blue Carbon Sequestration in Florida Coastal Wetlands - Response to Recent Climate Change and Holocene Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughn, D.; Bianchi, T. S.; Osborne, T.; Shields, M. R.; Kenney, W.

    2017-12-01

    Intertidal forests and salt marshes represent a major component of Florida's coasts and are essential to the health and integrity of coastal Florida's ecological and economic systems. In addition, coastal wetlands have been recognized as highly efficient carbon sinks with their ability to store carbon on time scales from centuries to millennia. Although losses of salt marshes, mangroves, and seagrass beds through both natural and anthropogenic forces are threatening their ability to act as carbon sinks globally, the poleward encroachment of mangroves into higher latitude salt marshes may lead to regional increases in carbon sequestration as mangroves store more carbon than salt marshes. For Florida, this encroachment of mangroves into salt marshes is prominent along the northern coasts where fewer freeze events have coincided with an increase in mangrove extent over the past several decades. Soil cores collected from a northeastern Florida wetland will allow us to determine whether the recent poleward encroachment of mangroves into northern Florida salt marshes has led to an increase in belowground carbon storage. The soil cores, which are approximately two to three meters in length, will also provide the first known record of carbon storage in a northern Florida wetland during the Holocene. Initial results from the top 40 cm, which represents 100 years based on dating of other northern Florida wetland cores, suggest more carbon is currently being stored within the transition between marsh and mangrove than in areas currently covered by salt marsh vegetation or mangroves. The transitional zone also has a much larger loss of carbon within the top 40 cm compared to the mangrove and marsh cores. Lignin-based degradation indices along with other biomarker data and 210Pb/137Cs ages will be presented to demonstrate how much of this loss of carbon may be related to degradation and how much may be related to changes in carbon sources.

  5. Insights Into Deglacial Through Holocene Climate Variability At The Peru-Chile Margin From Very High Sedimentation Rate Marine Cores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chazen, C.; Dejong, H.; Altabet, M.; Herbert, T.

    2007-12-01

    The Peru-Chile upwelling system is situated at the epicenter of the modern ENSO System. The high settling flux of organic materials and poor ventilation of subsurface waters makes the Peru upwelling system one of the world's three major oxygen minimum/denitrification zones (Codispoti and Christensen, 1985). Extremely high sedimentation rates and permanent hypoxic/anoxic subsurface waters create excellent conditions for the preservation of organic matter. Despite the significance of this region in regards to paleoceanography and paleoclimatology, relatively little work has been done to characterize past Peruvian climate because carbonate dissolution hinders the use of conventional paleoclimate methods and hiatuses frequently interrupt the record. However, using nitrogen isotopes and alkenone paleothermometry on multiple sediment cores from the Margin we have managed to overcome many of these challenges to create a nearly continuous SST (Uk`37), productivity (C37total), biogenic opal and denitrification (δN15) record from the LGM through the late Holocene. Remarkably, recent work has revealed an annually laminated core, which spans from 1.4-8.0ka uninterrupted, providing a unique window into Holocene climate variability. Modern-day upwelling induced climate at the Peru-Chile margin is characterized by cold temperatures (21.5°C) high productivity and strong denitrification, which has persisted since the mid Holocene (4ka). The mid Holocene also marks the beginning of a dramatic increase in seasonality and ENSO variability consistent with other tropical climate indicators. Climate variability in the Mid-early Holocene shows a distinctively different pattern from that of the late Holocene; unproductive warm temperatures persist through the early Holocene in what can be described as a permanent El Niño-like state. Early tropical warming occurred near 17ka along with an unprecedented increase in denitrification, which is decoupled from local productivity. Early onset

  6. Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Hargreaves

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Paleoclimate simulations provide us with an opportunity to critically confront and evaluate the performance of climate models in simulating the response of the climate system to changes in radiative forcing and other boundary conditions. Hargreaves et al. (2011 analysed the reliability of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, PMIP2 model ensemble with respect to the MARGO sea surface temperature data synthesis (MARGO Project Members, 2009 for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP. Here we extend that work to include a new comprehensive collection of land surface data (Bartlein et al., 2011, and introduce a novel analysis of the predictive skill of the models. We include output from the PMIP3 experiments, from the two models for which suitable data are currently available. We also perform the same analyses for the PMIP2 mid-Holocene (6 ka BP ensembles and available proxy data sets. Our results are predominantly positive for the LGM, suggesting that as well as the global mean change, the models can reproduce the observed pattern of change on the broadest scales, such as the overall land–sea contrast and polar amplification, although the more detailed sub-continental scale patterns of change remains elusive. In contrast, our results for the mid-Holocene are substantially negative, with the models failing to reproduce the observed changes with any degree of skill. One cause of this problem could be that the globally- and annually-averaged forcing anomaly is very weak at the mid-Holocene, and so the results are dominated by the more localised regional patterns in the parts of globe for which data are available. The root cause of the model-data mismatch at these scales is unclear. If the proxy calibration is itself reliable, then representativity error in the data-model comparison, and missing climate feedbacks in the models are other possible sources of error.

  7. Late Glacial to Early Holocene socio-ecological responses to climatic instability within the Mediterranean basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-López de Pablo, Javier; Jones, Samantha E.; Burjachs, Francesc

    2018-03-01

    The period spanning the Late Glacial and the Early Holocene (≈19-8.2 ka) witnessed a dramatic sequence of climate and palaeoenvironmental changes (Rasmussen et al., 2014). Interestingly, some of the most significant transformations ever documented in human Prehistory took place during this period such as the intensification of hunter-gatherer economic systems, the domestication process of wild plants and animals, and the spread of farming across Eurasia. Understanding the role of climate and environmental dynamics on long-term cultural and economic trajectories, as well as specific human responses to episodes of rapid climate change, still remains as one of the main challenges of archaeological research (Kintigh et al., 2014).

  8. Human responses to Middle Holocene climate change on California's Channel Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennett, Douglas J.; Kennett, James P.; Erlandson, Jon M.; Cannariato, Kevin G.

    2007-02-01

    High-resolution archaeological and paleoenvironmental records from California's Channel Islands provide a unique opportunity to examine potential relationships between climatically induced environmental changes and prehistoric human behavioral responses. Available climate records in western North America (7-3.8 ka) indicate a severe dry interval between 6.3 and 4.8 ka embedded within a generally warm and dry Middle Holocene. Very dry conditions in western North America between 6.3 and 4.8 ka correlate with cold to moderate sea-surface temperatures (SST) along the southern California Coast evident in Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Core 893A/B (Santa Barbara Basin). An episode of inferred high marine productivity between 6.3 and 5.8 ka corresponds with the coldest estimated SSTs of the Middle Holocene, otherwise marked by warm/low productivity marine conditions (7.5-3.8 ka). The impact of this severe aridity on humans was different between the northern and southern Channel Islands, apparently related to degree of island isolation, size and productivity of islands relative to population, fresh water availability, and on-going social relationships between island and continental populations. Northern Channel Islanders seem to have been largely unaffected by this severe arid phase. In contrast, cultural changes on the southern Channel Islands were likely influenced by the climatically induced environmental changes. We suggest that productive marine conditions coupled with a dry terrestrial climate between 6.3 and 5.8 ka stimulated early village development and intensified fishing on the more remote southern islands. Contact with people on the adjacent southern California Coast increased during this time with increased participation in a down-the-line trade network extending into the western Great Basin and central Oregon. Genetic similarities between Middle Holocene burial populations on the southern Channel Islands and modern California Uto-Aztecan populations suggest

  9. Response of northern hemisphere environmental and atmospheric conditions to climate changes using Greenland aerosol records from the Eemian to the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, H.

    2017-12-01

    The Northern Hemisphere experienced dramatic climate changes over the last glacial cycle, including vast ice sheet expansion and frequent abrupt climate events. Moreover, high northern latitudes during the last interglacial (Eemian) were warmer than today and may provide guidance for future climate change scenarios. However, little evidence exists regarding the environmental alterations connected to these climate changes. Using aerosol concentration records in decadal resolution from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) over the last 128,000 years we extract quantitative information on environmental changes, including the first comparison of northern hemisphere environmental conditions between the warmer than present Eemian and the early Holocene. Separating source changes from transport effects, we find that changes in the ice concentration greatly overestimate the changes in atmospheric concentrations in the aerosol source region, the latter mirroring changes in aerosol emissions. Glacial times were characterized by a strong reduction in terrestrial biogenic emissions (only 10-20% of the early Holocene value) reflecting the net loss of vegetated area in mid to high latitudes, while rapid climate changes during the glacial had essentially no effect on terrestrial biogenic aerosol emissions. An increase in terrestrial dust emissions of approximately a factor of eight during peak glacial and cold stadial intervals indicates higher aridity and dust storm activity in Asian deserts. Glacial sea salt aerosol emissions increased only moderately (by approximately 50%), likely due to sea ice expansion, while marked stadial/interstadial variations in sea salt concentrations in the ice reflect mainly changes in wet deposition en route. Eemian ice contains lower aerosol concentrations than ice from the early Holocene, due to shortened atmospheric residence time during the warmer Eemian, suggesting that generally 2°C warmer climate in high northern latitudes did not

  10. Macrophysical climate models and Holocene hunter-gatherer subsistence shifts in Central Texas, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauldin, R. P.; Munoz, C.

    2013-12-01

    We use stable carbon isotopic values from bone collagen, as well as carbon values from carbonate extracted from bone apatite from 69 prehistoric human skeletal samples to investigate past resource use and climate relationships over the Middle and Late Holocene in Central Texas. Bone samples come from seven archaeological sites and samples date from 6,900 BP to the close of the prehistoric sequence at about 350 BP. Carbon isotopes from these samples suggest four broad dietary trends. From 6,900 through about 3,800 BP, carbon isotopes suggest a gradual increase in the consumption of resources that ultimately use a C3 photosynthetic pathway. A decline in δ13C in both collagen and carbonate values follows, suggesting a decrease in C3 resource use through roughly 2,900 BP. A variable, but once again increasing pattern on C3 resource use by prehistoric hunter-gatherers is indicated in bone isotopes through about 1,000 BP. After that date, a decrease in C3 resource dependence, with hints at greater subsistence diversity, is suggested through the close of the sequence at 350 BP. To assess the impact of climate shifts on this isotopic pattern, we developed a series of macrophysical climate models (MCM) for several locations in Central Texas focusing on fall, winter, and early spring precipitation. This fall-spring rainfall should closely determine C3 production. If subsistence shifts are responding to climate-induced changes in resource availability, then the measured hunter-gatherer carbon isotope trends summarized above should pattern with C3 production as monitored by the modeled fall-spring precipitation values. For the Middle Holocene portion of the sequence, the precipitation models suggest increasing C3 production, consistent with increasing C3 dependence shown in the isotopic data. A decline in C3 production between 3,900 and 3,000 BP in the models is also consistent with the isotopic decline at that point. After 3,000 BP, however, the coupling between fall

  11. Megalake Chad impact on climate and vegetation during the late Pliocene and the mid-Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Contoux

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Given the growing evidence for megalakes in the geological record, assessing their impact on climate and vegetation is important for the validation of palaeoclimate simulations and therefore the accuracy of model–data comparison in lacustrine environments. Megalake Chad (MLC occurrences are documented not only for the mid-Holocene but also for the Mio-Pliocene (Schuster et al., 2009. At this time, the surface covered by water would have reached up to ~350 000 km2 (Ghienne et al., 2002; Schuster et al., 2005; Leblanc et al., 2006, making it an important evaporation source, possibly modifying climate and vegetation in the Chad Basin. We investigated the impact of such a giant continental water area in two different climatic backgrounds within the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (PMIP3: the late Pliocene (3.3 to 3 Ma, i.e. the mid-Piacenzian warm period and the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP. In all simulations including MLC, precipitation is drastically reduced above the lake surface because deep convection is inhibited by overlying colder air. Meanwhile, convective activity is enhanced around MLC because of the wind increase generated by the flat surface of the megalake, transporting colder and moister air towards the eastern shore of the lake. The effect of MLC on precipitation and temperature is not sufficient to widely impact vegetation patterns. Nevertheless, tropical savanna is present in the Chad Basin in all climatic configurations, even without MLC presence, showing that the climate itself is the driver of favourable environments for sustainable hominid habitats.

  12. Evaluation of different freshwater forcing scenarios for the 8.2 ka BP event in a coupled climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiersma, A.P.; Renssen, H. [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique George Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

    2006-12-15

    To improve our understanding of the mechanism causing the 8.2 ka BP event, we investigated the response of ocean circulation in the ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE (Version 3) model to various freshwater fluxes into the Labrador Sea. Starting from an early Holocene climate state we released freshwater pulses varying in volume and duration based on published estimates. In addition we tested the effect of a baseline flow (0.172 Sv) in the Labrador Sea to account for the background-melting of the Laurentide ice-sheet on the early Holocene climate and on the response of the overturning circulation. Our results imply that the amount of freshwater released is the decisive factor in the response of the ocean, while the release duration only plays a minor role, at least when considering the short release durations (1, 2 and 5 years) of the applied freshwater pulses. Furthermore, the experiments with a baseline flow produce a more realistic early Holocene climate state without Labrador Sea Water formation. Meltwater pulses introduced into this climate state produce a prolonged weakening of the overturning circulation compared to an early Holocene climate without baseline flow, and therefore less freshwater is needed to produce an event of similar duration. (orig.)

  13. Turbidite event history--Methods and implications for Holocene paleoseismicity of the Cascadia subduction zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldfinger, Chris; Nelson, C. Hans; Morey, Ann E.; Johnson, Joel E.; Patton, Jason R.; Karabanov, Eugene B.; Gutierrez-Pastor, Julia; Eriksson, Andrew T.; Gracia, Eulalia; Dunhill, Gita; Enkin, Randolph J.; Dallimore, Audrey; Vallier, Tracy; Kayen, Robert; Kayen, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Turbidite systems along the continental margin of Cascadia Basin from Vancouver Island, Canada, to Cape Mendocino, California, United States, have been investigated with swath bathymetry; newly collected and archive piston, gravity, kasten, and box cores; and accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dates. The purpose of this study is to test the applicability of the Holocene turbidite record as a paleoseismic record for the Cascadia subduction zone. The Cascadia Basin is an ideal place to develop a turbidite paleoseismologic method and to record paleoearthquakes because (1) a single subduction-zone fault underlies the Cascadia submarine-canyon systems; (2) multiple tributary canyons and a variety of turbidite systems and sedimentary sources exist to use in tests of synchronous turbidite triggering; (3) the Cascadia trench is completely sediment filled, allowing channel systems to trend seaward across the abyssal plain, rather than merging in the trench; (4) the continental shelf is wide, favoring disconnection of Holocene river systems from their largely Pleistocene canyons; and (5) excellent stratigraphic datums, including the Mazama ash and distinguishable sedimentological and faunal changes near the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary, are present for correlating events and anchoring the temporal framework. Multiple tributaries to Cascadia Channel with 50- to 150-km spacing, and a wide variety of other turbidite systems with different sedimentary sources contain 13 post-Mazama-ash and 19 Holocene turbidites. Likely correlative sequences are found in Cascadia Channel, Juan de Fuca Channel off Washington, and Hydrate Ridge slope basin and Astoria Fan off northern and central Oregon. A probable correlative sequence of turbidites is also found in cores on Rogue Apron off southern Oregon. The Hydrate Ridge and Rogue Apron cores also include 12-22 interspersed thinner turbidite beds respectively. We use 14C dates, relative-dating tests at channel confluences, and

  14. Late Holocene climate and environmental change from Asiul cave speleothems: interpretations in light of modern cave monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Andrew; Wynn, Peter; Barker, Philip; Leng, Melanie; Noble, Steve; Tych, Wlodek

    2017-04-01

    Northern Iberia offers an excellent location to study fluctuations in North Atlantic Ocean (NA) conditions and the impact that changes in the NA have on atmospheric systems, which dominate Europe's climate. Two speleothems from Cueva de Asiul (Matienzo, N. Spain) have been used to reconstruct rainfall variability in N. Spain throughout the Holocene (Smith et al., 2016a). The carbonate δ18O records from these speleothems are interpreted in the light of a rigorous modern cave monitoring program undertaken at Cueva de Asiul (Smith et al., 2016b). Drip water δ18O reflects a modern rainfall amount effect whilst δ13C appears influenced by Prior Calcite Precipitation (PCP) in the short term and changes in vegetation at long timescales. The speleothem δ18O shows that long duration ( 1500 year) cycles in wetting and drying are prevalent in N. Spain during the Holocene and that dry climate phases are related to the timing of cold events (Bond et al., 2001) in the NA. Here we look in more detail at one of these speleothems, assessing both δ18O and δ13C during the last two thousand years. We show that Cueva de Asiul speleothems not only preserve long duration climate cycles in δ18O, but that they also appear influenced by shorter duration changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in-sync with other NAO archives (Olsen et al., 2012). However, the Cueva de Asiul record does not appear to preserve a predominately positive NAO signal during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) as is common within many European archives (Trouet et al., 2009), possibly due to the sites' close proximity to the NA and localised oceanic weather systems (Moreno et al., 2012). Alongside climatic changes, the speleothem δ13C shows a clear transition toward higher isotope values around 360 years BP (BP=1950), signalling a major environmental change in the region possibly due to anthropogenic removal of vast swathes of natural forest to support ship building and industry related to the Spanish

  15. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  16. Late Holocene climate variability in the southwestern Mediterranean region: an integrated marine and terrestrial geochemical approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Martín-Puertas

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A combination of marine (Alboran Sea cores, ODP 976 and TTR 300 G and terrestrial (Zoñar Lake, Andalucia, Spain geochemical proxies provides a high-resolution reconstruction of climate variability and human influence in the southwestern Mediterranean region for the last 4000 years at inter-centennial resolution. Proxies respond to changes in precipitation rather than temperature alone. Our combined terrestrial and marine archive documents a succession of dry and wet periods coherent with the North Atlantic climate signal. A dry period occurred prior to 2.7 cal ka BP – synchronously to the global aridity crisis of the third-millennium BC – and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1.4–0.7 cal ka BP. Wetter conditions prevailed from 2.7 to 1.4 cal ka BP. Hydrological signatures during the Little Ice Age are highly variable but consistent with more humidity than the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Additionally, Pb anomalies in sediments at the end of the Bronze Age suggest anthropogenic pollution earlier than the Roman Empire development in the Iberian Peninsula. The Late Holocene climate evolution of the in the study area confirms the see-saw pattern between the eastern and western Mediterranean regions and the higher influence of the North Atlantic dynamics in the western Mediterranean.

  17. Decadal to millennial time scale climate variability in the Central Mediterranean during the Holocene: a reconstruction based on geochemical proxies from high resolution sedimentary records

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goudeau, M.S.

    2014-01-01

    To assess potential anthropogenic contributions to future climate change it is necessary to understand natural climate variability. This can be achieved by studying climate variability during the Holocene, when similar basic climate boundary conditions persisted as today. During this period climate

  18. Recent evolution and divergence among populations of a rare Mexican endemic, Chihuahua spruce, following holocene climatic warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Thomas Ledig; Virginia Jacob-Cervantes; Paul D. Hodgskiss

    1997-01-01

    Fragmentation and reduction in population size are expected to reduce genetic diversity. However, examples from natural populations of forest trees are scarce. The range of Chihuahua spruce retreated northward and fragmented coincident with the warming climate that marked the early Holocene. The isolated populations vary from 15 to 2441 trees, which provided an...

  19. Holocene alluvial stratigraphy and response to climate change in the Roaring River valley, Front Range, Colorado, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madole, Richard F.

    2012-09-01

    Stratigraphic analyses and radiocarbon geochronology of alluvial deposits exposed along the Roaring River, Colorado, lead to three principal conclusions: (1) the opinion that stream channels in the higher parts of the Front Range are relics of the Pleistocene and nonalluvial under the present climate, as argued in a water-rights trial USA v. Colorado, is untenable, (2) beds of clast-supported gravel alternate in vertical succession with beds of fine-grained sediment (sand, mud, and peat) in response to centennial-scale changes in snowmelt-driven peak discharges, and (3) alluvial strata provide information about Holocene climate history that complements the history provided by cirque moraines, periglacial deposits, and paleontological data. Most alluvial strata are of late Holocene age and record, among other things, that: (1) the largest peak flows since the end of the Pleistocene occurred during the late Holocene; (2) the occurrence of a mid- to late Holocene interval (~ 2450-1630(?) cal yr BP) of warmer climate, which is not clearly identified in palynological records; and (3) the Little Ice Age climate seems to have had little impact on stream channels, except perhaps for minor (~ 1 m) incision.

  20. Holocene changes in climate and vegetation in the Ammassalik area, East Greenland, recorded in lake sediments and soil profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Bjarne Holm; Fredskild, Bent; Pedersen, Jørn Bjarke Torp

    2008-01-01

    , appears to have experienced the warmest Holocene summer conditions, ice-free seas and limited snow covers. The climate situation seems to have been to a considerable extent based on internal regional meteorological processes and largely without strong and regular cyclonic impacts from lower latitudes...

  1. 8800 years of high-altitude vegetation and climate history at the Rutor Glacier forefield, Italian Alps. Evidence of middle Holocene timberline rise and glacier contraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badino, Federica; Ravazzi, Cesare; Vallè, Francesca; Pini, Roberta; Aceti, Amelia; Brunetti, Michele; Champvillair, Elena; Maggi, Valter; Maspero, Francesco; Perego, Renata; Orombelli, Giuseppe

    2018-04-01

    Sedimentary archives at or near the timberline ecotone in Alpine glaciated areas contain records to study Holocene climate change and the interplay between climate, ecosystems, and humans. We focused on records of timberline and glacier oscillations in the Rutor Glacier forefield (Western Italian Alps) in the last 8800 years. Human activity in this area was negligible for most of the Holocene. We adopted an integrative stratigraphic approach including proxies for glacier advance and timberline estimation, sedimentary events, and reconstructed temperatures. Changes in timberline ecotone correlate to climate until the Middle Ages. Pollen-stratigraphic evidence of a primary plant succession highlights a lag beween local deglaciation and the first reliable 14C age. The radiocarbon chronology points to a prolonged phase of glacier contraction between 8.8 and 3.7 ka cal BP. Even later the glacier remained within its LIA limits. Between 8.4 and 4 ka cal BP MAT-inferred TJuly fluctuated near 12.4 °C, ca. 3.1 °C higher than today. During this period, a Pinus cembra forest belt grew at 2600 m asl with an upper limit of tree groves placed 434 ± 310 m above the current open forest limit. This Holocene phase of thermal maximum ended between 3.98 and 3.51 ± 70 ka cal BP and with a substantial rearrangement of forest composition; temperature reconstruction shows a decrease of 1.8 °C. This climate deterioration concluded the Subboreal thermal optimum, mirroring glacial advances widely documented in the Alps. The Rutor Glacier advanced at ca. AD 1093 ± 65, and remained inside the LIA maximum extent. The LIA started since AD 1594, and culminated between AD 1751 and 1864.

  2. Mid-late Holocene climate and vegetation in northeastern part of the Altai Mountains recorded in Lake Teletskoye

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudaya, Natalia; Nazarova, Larisa; Novenko, Elena; Babich, Valery; Kalugin, Ivan; Daryin, Andrei

    2015-04-01

    intervals during the Late Holocene. Kravchinsky et al. (2013) presume that the 1000- and 500-year periodicities recorded in magnetic properties of soil layers correspond to solar activity induced climate changes in Southern Siberia; however, Stuiver&Braziunas (1993) relate the ~500-yr cycle to flux oscillations in the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation. The ˜210-year periodicities may reflect the ~200-year solar de Vries cycle that is commonly believed to be one of the most intense solar cycles (e.g. Wagner G. et al., 2001; Damon&Peristykh, 2000; Stuiver&Braziunas, 1993). Dendrochronlogical data obtained from the Tien Shan and Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau confirm the existence of 200-year climatic cycles associated with solar activity in Central Asia (Raspopov et al., 2008). Absence of 1500-year climatic cycles (Bond events) in Tel 2006 record may be explained by deep intercontinental location of the Lake Teletskoye whereas 1500-year cycles are linked with the North Atlantic oceanic circulation (Bond et al., 2001; Debret et al., 2007).

  3. Biomization and quantitative climate reconstruction techniques in northwestern Mexico—With an application to four Holocene pollen sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega-Rosas, C. I.; Guiot, J.; Peñalba, M. C.; Ortiz-Acosta, M. E.

    2008-04-01

    6 ka. Climate Dynamics 12, 185-194), we modified the pollen-PFT and PFT-biomes assignation of Thompson and Anderson (Thompson, R.S., Anderson, K.H., 2000. Biomes of western North America at 18,000; 6000 and 0 14C yr BP reconstructed from pollen and packrat midden data. Journal of Biogeography 27, 555-584) for a better representation of the modern vegetation of NW Mexico. The biome reconstruction method was validated with the modern pollen sites and applied to the fossil sites. Our results show that, during the early Holocene, a cool conifer forest extended at least down to 1700 m, while today this biome is present above 2000 m in the Chihuahua state. The Younger Dryas event was recorded in one site with cold and dry conditions. The reconstructed annual temperature for this period was 3°-6 °C colder than today, and annual precipitation was 250 mm lower than at present (900 mm/yr). The middle Holocene after 9200 cal yr BP was marked by a warming trend, reaching temperatures 2 °C warmer than today at 7000 cal yr BP, and by the installation of a warm mixed forest, the present day biome, at 1700 m elevation, while at higher elevations (1900 m) the cool conifer forest was still present. Summer precipitation was 200 mm/yr above the early Holocene values, suggesting that monsoon-like conditions strengthened since 9200 cal yr BP at this region. During the last 4000 yr, the same warm mixed forest was reconstructed below 1700 m and a conifer forest above 1700 m. A great variability of vegetation and climate patterns was recorded for the last 3000 yr particularly at high elevation sites, where warming and cooling trends would be coeval of the Medieval warm period and Little Ice Age, likely related to ENSO variability.

  4. Late-Holocene environment and climatic changes in Ameralik Fjord, southwest Greenland: evidence from the sedimentary record

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Henrik S.; Jensen, Karin G.; Kuijpers, Antoon

    2006-01-01

      Sedimentological and geochemical (XRF) data together with information from diatom and benthic foraminifera records of a 3.5 m long gravity core from Ameralik fjord, southern West Greenland, is used for reconstructing late Holocene environmental changes in this area. The changes are linked...... to large-scale North Atlantic ocean and climate variability. AMS 14C-dating of benthic foraminifera indicates that the sediment core covers the last 4400 years and may include the termination of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). The late HTM (4.4-3.2 ka BP) is characterized by high accumulation rates...

  5. High-resolution reconstruction of extreme storm events over the North Sea during the Late Holocene: inferences from aeolian sand influx in coastal mires, Western Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goslin, Jerome; Clemmensen, Lars B.

    2017-04-01

    Possessing long and accurate archives of storm events worldwide is the key for a better understanding of the atmospheric patterns driving these events and of the response of the coastal systems to storms. To be adequately addressed, the ongoing and potential future changes in wind regimes (including in particular the frequency and magnitude of storm events) have to be replaced in the context of long-time records of past storminess, i.e. longer than the century-scale records of instrumental weather data which do not allow the calculation of reliable return periods. During the last decade, several Holocene storminess chronologies have been based on storm-traces left by aeolian processes within coastal lakes, mires and peat bogs, (e.g. Björck and Clemmensen, 2004; De Jong et al., 2006; Clemmensen et al., 2009; Nielsen et al.; 2016; Orme et al., 2016). These data have shown to adequately complement the records which can be derived from the study of records related to wave-induced processes including e.g. washover deposits. Previous works along the west coast of Jutland, Denmark have revealed four main periods of dune building during the last 4200 yrs (Clemmensen et al., 2001; 2009). These were shown to be in phase with periods of climate deterioration (cold periods) recognized elsewhere in Europe and the North Atlantic region and suggest periods of increased aeolian activity. Yet, doubts remain on whether these periods where characterized by several big short-lived storm events or rather by an overall increase in wind energy. This study aims at constructing a high-resolution (centennial to multi-decadal) history of past storminess over the North Sea for the last millenaries. Plurimeter sequences of peat and gyttja have been retrieved from two coastal mires and were analyzed for their sand content. The quartz grains were systematically counted within centimetric slices (Aeolian Sand Influx method, Björck & Clemmensen, 2004), while the palaeo-environmental context and

  6. An ikaite record of late Holocene climate at the Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Zunli; Rickaby, Rosalind E. M.; Kennedy, Hilary; Kennedy, Paul; Pancost, Richard D.; Shaw, Samuel; Lennie, Alistair; Wellner, Julia; Anderson, John B.

    2012-04-01

    Calcium carbonate can crystallize in a hydrated form as ikaite at low temperatures. The hydration water in ikaite grown in laboratory experiments records the δ18O of ambient water, a feature potentially useful for reconstructing δ18O of local seawater. We report the first downcore δ18O record of natural ikaite hydration waters and crystals collected from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP), a region sensitive to climate fluctuations. We are able to establish the zone of ikaite formation within shallow sediments, based on porewater chemical and isotopic data. Having constrained the depth of ikaite formation and δ18O of ikaite crystals and hydration waters, we are able to infer local changes in fjord δ18O versus time during the late Holocene. This ikaite record qualitatively supports that both the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age extended to the Antarctic Peninsula.

  7. Diatom Stratigraphy of FA-1 Core, Qarun Lake, Records of Holocene Environmental and Climatic Change in Faiyum Oasis, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zalat Abdelfattah A.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates changes in the environmental and climatic conditions in the Faiyum Oasis during the Holocene based on diatom analyses of the sediment FA-1 core from the southern seashore of the Qarun Lake. The studied FA-1 core was 26 m long and covered the time span ca. 9.000 cal. yrs BP. Diatom taxa were abundant and moderately to well-preserved throughout the core sediments. Planktonic taxa were most abundant than the benthic and epiphytic forms, which were very rare and sparsely distributed. The most dominant planktonic genera were Aulacoseira and Stephanodiscus followed by frequently distribution of Cyclostephanos and Cyclotella species. The stratigraphic distribution patterns of the recorded diatoms through the Holocene sediments explained five ecological diatom groups. These groups represent distinctive environmental conditions, which were mainly related to climatic changes through the early and middle Holocene, in addition to anthropogenic activity during the late Holocene. Comparison of diatom assemblages in the studied sediment core suggests that considerable changes occurred in water level as well as salinity. There were several high stands of the freshwater lake level during humid, warmer-wet climatic phases marked by dominance of planktonic, oligohalobous and alkaliphilous diatoms alternated with lowering of the lake level and slight increases in salinity and alkalinity during warm arid conditions evident by prevalence of brackish water diatoms.

  8. Discontinuity surfaces and event stratigraphy of Okha Shell Limestone Member: Implications for Holocene sea level changes, western India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhonde, Uday; Desai, Bhawanisingh G.

    2011-08-01

    The Okha Shell Limestone Member of Chaya Formation is the coarse grained, shell rich deposit commonly recognized as the beach rocks. It has been age bracketed between Late Pleistocene and Holocene. Late Quaternary sea level changes have been studied with beach rocks along the Saurashtra coastal region. The present study has been carried out in the Okhamandal area of the Saurashtra peninsula especially on the Okha Shell Limestone Member as exposed at various locations along the coast from north to south. Temporal and spatial correlations of the observations have revealed three events in the Okha Shell Limestone Member of Chaya Formation that are correlated laterally. The events show depositional breaks represented by discontinuity surfaces, the taphofacies varieties and ichnological variations. The present study in the context of available geochrnological data of the region suggests a prominent depositional break representing low sea level stand (regression) during an Early Holocene during the deposition of Okha Shell Limestone Member.

  9. Multiproxy records of Holocene climate and glacier variability from sediment cores in the Cordillera Vilcabamba of southern Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweinsberg, A. D.; Licciardi, J. M.; Rodbell, D. T.; Stansell, N.; Tapia, P. M.

    2012-12-01

    Sediments contained in glacier-fed lakes and bogs provide continuous high-resolution records of glacial activity, and preserve multiproxy evidence of Holocene climate change. Tropical glacier fluctuations offer critical insight on regional paleoclimatic trends and controls, however, continuous sediment records of past tropical climates are limited. Recent cosmogenic 10Be surface exposure ages of moraine sequences in the Cordillera Vilcabamba of southern Peru (13°20'S latitude) reveal a glacial culmination during the early Holocene and a less extensive glaciation coincident with the Little Ice Age of the Northern Hemisphere. Here we supplement the existing 10Be moraine chronology with the first continuous records of multiproxy climate data in this mountain range from sediment cores recovered from bogs in direct stratigraphic contact with 10Be-dated moraines. Radiocarbon-dated sedimentological changes in a 2-meter long bog core reveal that the Holocene is characterized by alternating inorganic and organic-rich laminae, suggesting high-frequency climatic variability. Carbon measurements, bulk density, and bulk sedimentation rates are used to derive a record of clastic sediment flux that serves as a proxy indicator of former glacier activity. Preliminary analyses of the bog core reveal approximately 70 diatom taxa that indicate both rheophilic and lentic environments. Initial results show a general decrease in magnetic susceptibility and clastic flux throughout the early to mid-Holocene, which suggests an interval of deglaciation. An episode of high clastic flux from 3.8 to 2.0 ka may reflect a late Holocene glacial readvance. Volcanic glass fragments and an anomalous peak in magnetic susceptibility may correspond to the historical 1600 AD eruption of Huaynaputina. Ten new bog and lake sediment cores were collected during the 2012 field expedition and analytical measurements are underway. Ongoing efforts are focused on analyzing diatom assemblage data, developing

  10. Holocene fire, vegetation, and climate dynamics inferred from charcoal and pollen record in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wenwei; Zhao, Yan; Qin, Feng

    2017-10-01

    Understanding fire history and its driving mechanisms can provide valuable insights into present fire regime (intensity, severity and frequency), the interplay between vegetation and fire, and trigger of fire activities. Here we reconstruct the Holocene fire history in the Zoige Basin on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, on the basis of sedimentary micro-charcoal record over the last 10.0 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP) and discuss the influences of vegetation and climate on fire dynamics. Our results show that regional fire was active at 10.0-3.3 ka and a significant decrease in fire activity characterized the period after 3.3 ka. The high regional fire frequency at 10.0-3.3 ka is consistent with the forested landscape suggested by high affinity scores of cool mixed forest biome (mainly consisted of spruce), implying that fire dynamics during this period was generally controlled by the variations of arboreal biomass and summer temperature. During 6.3-4.6 ka the prevailing Asian summer monsoon provided increased moisture to this region and thus suppressed fire activities to an extent, despite the availability of abundant biomass. Declined tree biomass after 3.3 ka probably accounted for the decreased fire activities. In addition, two successive fire events at ca. 3.5-3.3 ka were likely responsible for the subsequent abrupt decline of forest components in the landscape.

  11. Middle and late Holocene climate change and human impact inferred from diatoms, algae and aquatic macrophyte pollen in sediments from Lake Montcortès (NE Iberian Peninsula)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scussolini, P.; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T.; Rull, V.; Corella, J.P.; Valero-Garcés, B.; Gomà, J.

    2011-01-01

    During the middle and late Holocene, the Iberian Peninsula underwent large climatic and hydrologic changes, but the temporal resolution and regional distribution of available palaeoenvironmental records is still insufficient for a comprehensive assessment of the regional variability. The high

  12. Late Holocene vegetation, climate, and land-use impacts on carbon dynamics in the Florida Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Miriam C.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Willard, Debra A.

    2014-01-01

    Tropical and subtropical peatlands are considered a significant carbon sink. The Florida Everglades includes 6000-km2 of peat-accumulating wetland; however, detailed carbon dynamics from different environments within the Everglades have not been extensively studied or compared. Here we present carbon accumulation rates from 13 cores and 4 different environments, including sawgrass ridges and sloughs, tree islands, and marl prairies, whose hydroperiods and vegetation communities differ. We find that the lowest rates of C accumulation occur in sloughs in the southern Everglades. The highest rates are found where hydroperiods are generally shorter, including near-tails of tree islands and drier ridges. Long-term average rates of 100 to >200 g C m−2 yr−1 are as high, and in some cases, higher than rates recorded from the tropics and 10–20 times higher than boreal averages. C accumulation rates were impacted by both the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, but the largest impacts to C accumulation rates over the Holocene record have been the anthropogenic changes associated with expansion of agriculture and construction of canals and levees to control movement of surface water. Water management practices in the 20th century have altered the natural hydroperiods and fire regimes of the Everglades. The Florida Everglades as a whole has acted as a significant carbon sink over the mid- to late-Holocene, but reduction of the spatial extent of the original wetland area, as well as the alteration of natural hydrology in the late 19th and 20th centuries, have significantly reduced the carbon sink capacity of this subtropical wetland.

  13. A multiproxy fjord sediment record of Holocene climate change from the subantarctic Auckland Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, I. M.; Moy, C. M.; Wilson, G. S.; Neil, H.; Riesselman, C. R.

    2014-12-01

    The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SHWW) and the associated oceanic fronts have a major influence on atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. Sediment cores recovered from fjords along the eastern margin of the sub-Antarctic Auckland Islands (51°S, 166°E) are ideally located to sensitively record changes in the strength and position of the SHWW throughout the Holocene. A 5.75m core from Hanfield Inlet preserves both marine and terrestrial environmental components, which we use to develop a multiproxy record of past climatic conditions. This core, composed entirely of brown marine mud and silt, was recovered from a depth of 44m. Based on the entrance sill depth of the fjord (10mbsl) and our knowledge of regional sea level rise, we infer that the base of the core will be early Holocene in age, which will be confirmed using radiocarbon age dating. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages (125-500μm fraction) in surface and downcore samples are dominated by three taxa, Nonionellina flemingi, Cassidulina carinata and Quinqueloculina seminula. These species are either shallow infaunal or infaunal. We will use stable carbon (δ¹³C) and oxygen (δ¹⁸O) isotope geochemistry of the benthic foraminifera Nonionellina flemingi, Bolivina cf. earlandi, Trifarina angulosa, Bulimina marginata f. marginata and Cibicides species (all identified from Rose Bengal stained box-core samples) to reconstruct water column fluctuations associated with frontal migration. These results will compliment bulk sediment C and N concentration and isotope reconstructions of terrestrial organic matter delivery to fjord sub-basins over the past 12,000 years.

  14. A proxy late Holocene climatic record deduced from northwest Alaskan beach ridges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mason, O.K.; Jordan, J.W.

    1991-01-01

    A climatically-sensitive, oscillatory pattern of progradation and erosion is revealed in late Holocene accretionary sand ridge and barrier island complexes of Seward Peninsula, northwest Alaska. Archaeological and geological radiocarbon dates constrain the authors chronology for the Cape Espenberg beach ridge plain and the Shishmaref barrier islands, 50 km to the southwest. Cape Espenberg, acts as the depositional sink for the northeastward longshore transport system and contains the oldest sedimentary deposits: based on 3700±90 B.P. (β-23170) old grass from a paleosol capping a low dune facies. The oldest date on the Shishmaref barrier islands is 1550±70 B.P. (β-23183) and implies that the modem barrier is a comparatively recent phenomenon. Late Holocene sedimentation varies between intervals of erosion and rapid progradation. During erosional periods higher dunes are built atop beach ridges: as between 3000-2000 yrs. BP and intermittently from 1000 BP to the present. At other times, rapid progradation predominated, generating wide swales and low beach ridges without dunes. Tentatively, dune formation is correlative with the Neo-glacial and Little Ice Age glacial advances and increased alluviation in north Alaska. Rapid progradation is contemporaneous with warmer intervals of soil and peat formation atop alluvial terraces, dated to ca. 4000-3500 and 2000-1000 yrs. B.P. In the record of the last 1000 years, dune building is correlative with heightened storminess, as reflected in northwest Alaska tree-ring chronologies and weather anomalies such as spring dust storms and winter thunderstorms in East Asian locations

  15. Punctuated Holocene climate of Vestfirðir, Iceland, linked to internal/external variables and oceanographic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harning, David J.; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford H.

    2018-06-01

    Emerging Holocene paleoclimate datasets point to a non-linear response of Icelandic climate against a background of steady orbital cooling. The Vestfirðir peninsula (NW Iceland) is an ideal target for continued climate reconstructions due to the presence of a small ice cap (Drangajökull) and numerous lakes, which provide two independent means to evaluate existing Icelandic climate records and to constrain the forcing mechanisms behind centennial-scale cold anomalies. Here, we present new evidence for Holocene expansions of Drangajökull based on 14C dates from entombed dead vegetation as well as two continuous Holocene lake sediment records. Lake sediments were analyzed for both bulk physical (MS) and biological (%TOC, δ13C, C/N, and BSi) parameters. Composite BSi and C/N records from the two lakes yield a sub-centennial qualitative perspective on algal (diatom) productivity and terrestrial landscape stability, respectively. The Vestfirðir lake proxies suggest initiation of the Holocene Thermal Maximum by ∼8.8 ka with subsequent and pronounced cooling not apparent until ∼3 ka. Synchronous periods of reduced algal productivity and accelerated landscape instability point to cold anomalies centered at ∼8.2, 6.6, 4.2, 3.3, 2.3, 1.8, 1, and 0.25 ka. Triggers for cold anomalies are linked to variable combinations of freshwater pulses, low total solar irradiance, explosive and effusive volcanism, and internal modes of climate variability, with cooling likely sustained by ocean/sea-ice feedbacks. The climate evolution reflected by our glacial and organic proxy records corresponds closely to marine records from the North Iceland Shelf.

  16. Mapping the Holocene forest formations with the use of key climate indicators – heat and moisture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. K. Farber

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the methodology of mapping the Holocene forest formations on the basis of the DEM and the key indicators of the climate – heat and moisture. The work is carried out by means of GIS. The test site is located within the boundaries of the axial West Sayan district of mountain taiga forests, which ensures homogeneity of natural and climatic conditions. Stages of the method: creation of rasters on groups of absolute heights, exposures and inclinations with their subsequent combination into a single Combine raster; obtaining the regularities of spatial distribution of heat and moisture and their representation in the form of rasters (digital models; and interactive mapping of the Holocene forests with various combinations of heat and moisture. The use of Combine raster makes it possible to refuse to use any other contours as – landscape, geomorphological, forest inventory. To determine parameters of climatic boundaries of forest formations, the types of forests are linked to the heat and moisture indicators. As a result of linking, a graphic image is produced, where forest formations and their productivity are located in a certain order. The mapping technique involves creating a dBASE table with a field containing information about forest formations. The row-wise change in the records of forest formations as they move to other values of heat and moisture is performed interactively. Each next combination of heat and moisture on maps corresponds to a certain distribution of forest formations and site productivity (bonitet classes. (1900 ± 65 years ago the river valleys were treeless, flat meadows occupied meadows, and the slopes were steppes. As the hypsometric level increases, larch stands, spruce-Siberian stone pine with an admixture of larch, Siberian stone pine-larch with an admixture of fir, and the Siberian stone pine formations appear. (2200 ± 100 years ago the tundra prevailed. Larch forests of V–Va classes of

  17. Western equatorial African forest-savanna mosaics: a legacy of late Holocene climatic change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ngomanda

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Past vegetation and climate changes reconstructed using two pollen records from Lakes Maridor and Nguène, located in the coastal savannas and inland rainforest of Gabon, respectively, provide new insights into the environmental history of western equatorial African rainforests during the last 4500 cal yr BP. These pollen records indicate that the coastal savannas of western equatorial Africa did not exist during the mid-Holocene and instead the region was covered by evergreen rainforests. From ca. 4000 cal yr BP a progressive decline of inland evergreen rainforest, accompanied by the expansion of semi-deciduous rainforest, occurred synchronously with grassland colonisation in the coastal region of Gabon. The contraction of moist evergreen rainforest and the establishment of coastal savannas in Gabon suggest decreasing humidity from ca. 4000 cal yr BP. The marked reduction in evergreen rainforest and subsequent savanna expansion was followed from 2700 cal yr BP by the colonization of secondary forests dominated by the palm, Elaeis guineensis, and the shrub, Alchornea cordifolia (Euphorbiaceae. A return to wetter climatic conditions from about 1400 cal yr BP led to the renewed spread of evergreen rainforest inland, whereas a forest-savanna mosaic still persists in the coastal region. There is no evidence to suggest that the major environmental changes observed were driven by human impact.

  18. Holocene climate variability revealed by oxygen isotope analysis of Sphagnum cellulose from Walton Moss, northern England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, T. J.; Barber, K. E.; Street-Perrott, F. A.; Loader, N. J.; Marshall, J. D.; Crowley, S. F.; Fisher, E. H.

    2010-07-01

    Stable isotope analyses of Sphagnum alpha-cellulose, precipitation and bog water from three sites across northwestern Europe (Raheenmore, Ireland, Walton Moss, northern England and Dosenmoor, northern Germany) over a total period of 26 months were used to investigate the nature of the climatic signal recorded by Sphagnum moss. The δ18O values of modern alpha-cellulose tracked precipitation more closely than bog water, with a mean isotopic fractionation factor αcellulose-precipitation of 1.0274 ± 0.001 (1 σ) (≈27‰). Sub-samples of isolated Sphagnum alpha-cellulose were subsequently analysed from core WLM22, Walton Moss, northern England yielding a Sphagnum-specific isotope record spanning the last 4300 years. The palaeo-record, calibrated using the modern data, provides evidence for large amplitude variations in the estimated oxygen isotope composition of precipitation during the mid- to late Holocene. Estimates of palaeotemperature change derived from statistical relationships between modern surface air temperatures and δ18O precipitation values for the British Isles give unrealistically large variation in comparison to proxies from other archives. We conclude that use of such relationships to calibrate mid-latitude palaeo-data must be undertaken with caution. The δ18O record from Sphagnum cellulose was highly correlated with a palaeoecologically-derived index of bog surface wetness (BSW), suggesting a common climatic driver.

  19. Different regional climatic drivers of Holocene large wildfires in boreal forests of northeastern America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remy, Cécile C.; Hély, Christelle; Blarquez, Olivier; Magnan, Gabriel; Bergeron, Yves; Lavoie, Martin; Ali, Adam A.

    2017-03-01

    Global warming could increase climatic instability and large wildfire activity in circumboreal regions, potentially impairing both ecosystem functioning and human health. However, links between large wildfire events and climatic and/or meteorological conditions are still poorly understood, partly because few studies have covered a wide range of past climate-fire interactions. We compared palaeofire and simulated climatic data over the last 7000 years to assess causes of large wildfire events in three coniferous boreal forest regions in north-eastern Canada. These regions span an east-west cline, from a hilly region influenced by the Atlantic Ocean currently dominated by Picea mariana and Abies balsamea to a flatter continental region dominated by Picea mariana and Pinus banksiana. The largest wildfires occurred across the entire study zone between 3000 and 1000 cal. BP. In western and central continental regions these events were triggered by increases in both the fire-season length and summer/spring temperatures, while in the eastern region close to the ocean they were likely responses to hydrological (precipitation/evapotranspiration) variability. The impact of climatic drivers on fire size varied spatially across the study zone, confirming that regional climate dynamics could modulate effects of global climate change on wildfire regimes.

  20. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.

    2008-01-01

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  1. Climate change and extreme events in weather

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    reported that the climate based extreme weather event is increasing throughout the world. One of the major chal- lenges before the scientists is to determine whether the ob- served change in extreme weather events exceeds the vari- ability expected through... was recorded in July 1943 on the hills of Mewar and Merwara. Unprecedent flood in Ajmer and Merwara devasted 50 villages and took a toll of 5000 lives (De et al., 2005). Severe Floods occurred to Godavari and Tungabhadra rivers in the last week of August...

  2. Prehistoric land use and Neolithisation in Europe in the context of regional climate events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmen, C.; Wirtz, K. W.; Gronenborn, D.

    2009-04-01

    We present a simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit model of pre-Bronze age socio-technological change, called the Global Land Use and Technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). The socio-technological realm is described by three characteristic traits: available technology, subsistence style ratio, and economic diversity. Human population and culture develop in the context of global paleoclimate and regional paleoclimate events. Global paleoclimate is derived from CLIMBER-2 Earth System Model anomalies superimposed on the IIASA temperature and precipitation database. Regional a forcing is provided by abrupt climate deteriorations from a compilation of 138 long-term high-resolution climate proxy time series from mostly terrestrial and near-shore archives. The GLUES simulator provides for a novel way to explore the interplay between climate, climate change, and cultural evolution both on the Holocene timescale as well as for short-term extreme event periods. We sucessfully simulate the migration of people and the diffusion of Neolithic technology from the Near East into Europe in the period 12000-4000 a BP. We find good agreement with recent archeological compilations of Western Eurasian Neolithic sites. No causal relationship between climate events and cultural evolution could be identified, but the speed of cultural development is found to be modulated by the frequency of climate events. From the demographic evolution and regional ressource consumption, we estimate regional land use change and prehistoric greenhouse gas emissions.

  3. Late-Holocene environment and climatic changes in Ameralik Fjord, southwest Greenland: evidence from the sedimentary record

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Henrik S.; Jensen, Karin G.; Kuijpers, Antoon

    2006-01-01

      Sedimentological and geochemical (XRF) data together with information from diatom and benthic foraminifera records of a 3.5 m long gravity core from Ameralik fjord, southern West Greenland, is used for reconstructing late Holocene environmental changes in this area. The changes are linked...... to large-scale North Atlantic ocean and climate variability. AMS 14C-dating of benthic foraminifera indicates that the sediment core covers the last 4400 years and may include the termination of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). The late HTM (4.4-3.2 ka BP) is characterized by high accumulation rates...... conditions were further characterised by limited sea ice probably related to a mild and relatively windy winter climate. After 3.2 ka BP lower fine-grained sedimentation rates, but a larger input from sea-ice rafted or aeolian coarse material prevailed. This can be related to colder atmospheric conditions...

  4. Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic impacts from Lago Paixban, a perennial wetland in Peten, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, David B.; Hansen, Richard D.; Byrne, Roger; Anderson, Lysanna; Schreiner, T.

    2016-01-01

    Analyses of an ~ 6 m sediment core from Lago Paixban in Peten, Guatemala, document the complex evolution of a perennial wetland over the last 10,300 years. The basal sediment is comprised of alluvial/colluvial fill deposited in the early Holocene. The absence of pollen and gastropods in the basal sediments suggests intermittently dry conditions until ~ 9000 cal yr. BP (henceforth BP) when the basin began to hold water perennially. Lowland tropical forest taxa dominated the local vegetation at this time. A distinct band of carbonate dating to ~ 8200 BP suggests regionally dry conditions, possibly associated with the 8.2 ka event. Wetter conditions during the Holocene Thermal Maximum are indicated by evidence of a raised water level and an open water lake. The timing of this interval coincides with strengthening of the Central American Monsoon. An abrupt change at 5500 BP involved the development of a sawgrass marsh and onset of peat deposition. The lowest recorded water levels date to 5500–4500 BP. Pollen, isotope, geochemical, and sedimentological data indicate that the coring site was near the edge of the marsh during this period. A rise in the water table after 4500 BP persisted until around 3500 BP. Clay marl deposition from 3500 to 210 BP corresponds to the period of Maya settlement. An increase in δ13C, the presence of Zea pollen, and a reduction in the percentage of forest taxa pollen indicate agricultural activity at this time. In contrast to several nearby paleoenvironmental studies, proxy evidence from Lago Paixban indicates human presence through the Classic/Postclassic period transition (~ 1000 BP) and persisting until the arrival of Europeans. Cessation of human activity around 210 BP resulted in local afforestation and the re-establishment of the current sawgrass marsh at Lago Paixban.

  5. Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic impacts from Lago Paixban, a perennial wetland in Peten, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, David; Hansen, Richard D.; Byrne, Roger; Anderson, Lysanna; Schreiner, Thomas

    2016-03-01

    Analyses of an 6 m sediment core from Lago Paixban in Peten, Guatemala, document the complex evolution of a perennial wetland over the last 10,300 years. The basal sediment is comprised of alluvial/colluvial fill deposited in the early Holocene. The absence of pollen and gastropods in the basal sediments suggests intermittently dry conditions until 9000 cal yr. BP (henceforth BP) when the basin began to hold water perennially. Lowland tropical forest taxa dominated the local vegetation at this time. A distinct band of carbonate dating to 8200 BP suggests regionally dry conditions, possibly associated with the 8.2 ka event. Wetter conditions during the Holocene Thermal Maximum are indicated by evidence of a raised water level and an open water lake. The timing of this interval coincides with strengthening of the Central American Monsoon. An abrupt change at 5500 BP involved the development of a sawgrass marsh and onset of peat deposition. The lowest recorded water levels date to 5500-4500 BP. Pollen, isotope, geochemical, and sedimentological data indicate that the coring site was near the edge of the marsh during this period. A rise in the water table after 4500 BP persisted until around 3500 BP. Clay marl deposition from 3500 to 210 BP corresponds to the period of Maya settlement. An increase in δ13C, the presence of Zea pollen, and a reduction in the percentage of forest taxa pollen indicate agricultural activity at this time. In contrast to several nearby paleoenvironmental studies, proxy evidence from Lago Paixban indicates human presence through the Classic/Postclassic period transition ( 1000 BP) and persisting until the arrival of Europeans. Cessation of human activity around 210 BP resulted in local afforestation and the re-establishment of the current sawgrass marsh at Lago Paixban.

  6. Effects of late Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic stressors on the vegetation of the Maya highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco-Gaviria, F.; Correa-Metrio, A.; Cordero-Oviedo, C.; López-Pérez, M.; Cárdenes-Sandí, G. M.; Romero, F. M.

    2018-06-01

    Climate variability and human activities have shaped the vegetation communities of the Maya region of southern Mexico and Central America on centennial to millennial timescales. Most research efforts in the region have focused on the lowlands, with relatively little known about the environmental history of the regional highlands. Here we present data from two sediment sequences collected from lakes in the highlands of Chiapas, Mexico. Our aim was to disentangle the relative contributions of climate and human activities in the development of regional vegetation during the late Holocene. The records reveal a long-term trend towards drier conditions with superimposed centennial-scale droughts. A declining moisture trend from 3400 to 1500 cal yr BP is consistent with previously reported southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, whereas periodic droughts were probably a consequence of drivers such as El Niño. These conditions, together with dense human occupation, converted the vegetation from forest to more open systems. According to the paleoecological records, cultural abandonment of the area occurred ca. 1500 cal yr BP, favoring forest recovery that was somewhat limited by low moisture availability. About 600 cal yr BP, wetter conditions promoted the establishment of modern montane cloud forests, which consist of a diverse mixture of temperate and tropical elements. The vegetation types that occupied the study area during the last few millennia have remained within the envelope defined by the modern vegetation mosaic. This finding highlights the importance of microhabitats in the maintenance biodiversity through time, even under scenarios of high climate variability and anthropogenic pressure.

  7. Impact of millennial-scale Holocene climate variability on eastern North American terrestrial ecosystems: Pollen-based climatic reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willard, D.A.; Bernhardt, C.E.; Korejwo, D.A.; Meyers, S.R.

    2005-01-01

    We present paleoclimatic evidence for a series of Holocene millennial-scale cool intervals in eastern North America that occurred every ???1400 years and lasted ???300-500 years, based on pollen data from Chesapeake Bay in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The cool events are indicated by significant decreases in pine pollen, which we interpret as representing decreases in January temperatures of between 0.2??and 2??C. These temperature decreases include excursions during the Little Ice Age (???1300-1600 AD) and the 8 ka cold event. The timing of the pine minima is correlated with a series of quasi-periodic cold intervals documented by various proxies in Greenland, North Atlantic, and Alaskan cores and with solar minima interpreted from cosmogenic isotope records. These events may represent changes in circumpolar vortex size and configuration in response to intervals of decreased solar activity, which altered jet stream patterns to enhance meridional circulation over eastern North America. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Unexpected early extinction of the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) in Sweden and climatic impact on its Holocene range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Robert S; Lindqvist, Charlotte; Persson, Arne; Bringsøe, Henrik; Rhodin, Anders G J; Schneeweiss, Norbert; Siroký, Pavel; Bachmann, Lutz; Fritz, Uwe

    2009-03-01

    Using ancient DNA sequences of subfossil European pond turtles (Emys orbicularis) from Britain, Central and North Europe and accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dating for turtle remains from most Swedish sites, we provide evidence for a Holocene range expansion of the pond turtle from the southeastern Balkans into Britain, Central Europe and Scandinavia, according to the 'grasshopper pattern' of Hewitt. Northeastern Europe and adjacent Asia were colonized from another refuge located further east. With increasing annual mean temperatures, pond turtles reached southern Sweden approximately 9800 years ago. Until approximately 5500 years ago, rising temperatures facilitated a further range expansion up to Ostergötland, Sweden (approximately 58 degrees 30'N). However, around 5500 years ago pond turtle records suddenly terminate in Sweden, some 1500 years before the Holocene thermal maximum ended in Scandinavia and distinctly earlier than previously thought. This extinction coincides with a temporary cooling oscillation during the Holocene thermal maximum and is likely related to lower summer temperatures deteriorating reproductive success. Although climatic conditions improved later again, recolonization of Sweden from southern source populations was prevented by the Holocene submergence of the previous land connection via the Danish Straits that occurred approximately 8500 years ago.

  9. Holocene Substrate Influences on Plant and Fire Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briles, C.; Whitlock, C. L.

    2011-12-01

    The role of substrates in facilitating plant responses to climate change in the past has received little attention. Ecological studies, documenting the relative role of fertile and infertile substrates in mediating the effects of climate change, lack the temporal information that paleoecological lake studies provide on how plants have responded under equal, larger and more rapid past climate events than today. In this paper, pollen and macroscopic charcoal preserved in the sediments of eight lakes surrounded by infertile ultramafic soils and more fertile soils in the Klamath Mountains of northern California were analyzed. Comparison of late-Quaternary paleoecological sites suggests that infertile and fertile substrates supported distinctly different plant communities. Trees and shrubs on infertile substrates were less responsive to climate change than those on fertile substrates, with the only major compositional change occurring at the glacial/interglacial transition (~11.5ka), when temperature rose 5oC. Trees and shrubs on fertile substrates were more responsive to climate changes, and tracked climate by moving along elevational gradients, including during more recent climate events such as the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Fire regimes were similar until 4ka on both substrate types. After 4ka, understory fuels on infertile substrates became sparse and fire activity decreased, while on fertile substrates forests became increasingly denser and fire activity increased. The complacency of plant communities on infertile sites to climate change contrasts with the individualistic and rapid adjustments of species on fertile sites. The findings differ from observations on shorter time scales that show the most change in herb cover and richness in the last 60 years on infertile substrates. Thus, the paleorecord provides unique long-term ecological data necessary to evaluate the response of plants to future climate change under different levels of soil

  10. Middle-Late Holocene environmental history of Kulunda (Southwestern Siberia): vegetation, climate, humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudaya, N.; Nazarova, L.; Papin, D.; Nourgaliev, D.

    2012-04-01

    Environmental reconstruction of Mid-Late Holocene vegetation and climate was inferred from pollen records of Lake Big Yarovoe (Kulunda steppe, Southwestern Siberia). Reconstruction suggests generally prevalence of steppe during last 4.45 ka. Relatively warm and dry climate, open semi-desert and dry steppes with patchy birch forest spread between 4.45 and 3.80 ka BP. The largest development of conifers forest started in Kulunda after 3.80 ka BP. Constant presence of dark-coniferous trees Abies and especially Picea between 3.80 and 2.7 ka BP indicates the most humid period in the region during studied time. Onset of the Late Holocene is characterised by dominance of steppe with birch and pine forests in lowlands and river valleys. After AD 1860, open steppe and semi-desert vegetation with fragmentary birch forest have been dominated parallel to sharp reduction of conifers in Kulunda. These results are in agreement with general scheme of Holocene environmental history of surrounding areas including Baraba forest-steppe, Kazakh Upland and Altai Mountains. Territory of Kulunda consists many archaeological sites of Bronze, Iron and Middle Ages. Second half of Bronze Age (4.45-3.80 ka BP) was represented by local human cultures or migrants from the North Kazakhstan. The main archaeological culture of Kulunda alike in the whole Ob`-Irtysh interfluve in this period was Elunino culture. The economical activities of Elunino community were connected with animal breeding especially with sheep and goats. The most humid period (~1795-710 BC; 3.8-2.7 ka BP) in Kulunda corresponded to the end of early Bronze Age and to the onset of the Iron Age. In 18 century BC Andronovo culture, associated with the Indo-Iranians and migrants from Central Kazakhstan, spread in the region. Cattle breeding economy was distinctive features of Andronovo people, however, increase of sheep, goats and horses with transition to nomadic life style was characteristic of the late Bronze Age. This trend is in

  11. Low-frequency and high-frequency changes in temperature and effective humidity during the Holocene in south-central Sweden: implications for atmospheric and oceanic forcings of climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seppae, H. [University of Helsinki, Department of Geology, 64, Helsinki (Finland); Hammarlund, D. [Lund University, GeoBiosphere Science Centre, Quaternary Sciences, Lund (Sweden); Antonsson, K. [Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2005-08-01

    An integrated use of independent palaeoclimatological proxy techniques that reflect different components of the climate system provides a potential key for functional analysis of past climate changes. Here we report a 10,000 year quantitative record of annual mean temperature (T{sub ann}), based on pollen-climate transfer functions and pollen-stratigraphical data from Lake Flarken, south-central Sweden. The pollen-based temperature reconstruction is compared with a reconstruction of effective humidity, as reflected by a {delta}{sup 18}O record obtained on stratigraphy of lacustrine carbonates from Lake Igelsjoen, c. 10 km from Lake Flarken, which gives evidence of pronounced changes in effective humidity. The relatively low T{sub ann}, and high effective humidity as reflected by a low evaporation/inflow ratio suggest a maritime early Holocene climate (10,000-8,300 cal year BP), seemingly incompatible with the highly seasonal solar insolation configuration. We argue that the maritime climate was due to the stronger-than-present zonal flow, enhanced by the high early Holocene sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The maritime climate mode was disrupted by the abrupt cold event at 8,200 cal year BP, followed at 8,000 cal year BP by a stable Holocene Thermal Maximum. The latter was characterized by T{sub ann} values about 2.5 C higher than at present and markedly dry conditions, indicative of stable summer-time anti-cyclonic circulation, possibly corresponding with modern blocking anticyclonic conditions. The last 4,300 year period is characterized by an increasingly cold, moist, and unstable climate. The results demonstrate the value of combining two independent palaeoclimatic proxies in enhancing the reliability, generality, and interpretability of the palaeoclimatic results. Further methodological refinements especially in resolving past seasonal climatic contrasts are needed to better understand the role of different forcing factors in driving millennial

  12. Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flueckiger, Jacqueline [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); White, James W.C. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2008-11-15

    Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed. (orig.)

  13. Rapid response of a marine mammal species to holocene climate and habitat change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark de Bruyn

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Environmental change drives demographic and evolutionary processes that determine diversity within and among species. Tracking these processes during periods of change reveals mechanisms for the establishment of populations and provides predictive data on response to potential future impacts, including those caused by anthropogenic climate change. Here we show how a highly mobile marine species responded to the gain and loss of new breeding habitat. Southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, remains were found along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, 2,500 km from the nearest extant breeding site on Macquarie Island (MQ. This habitat was released after retreat of the grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment 7,500-8,000 cal YBP, and is within the range of modern foraging excursions from the MQ colony. Using ancient mtDNA and coalescent models, we tracked the population dynamics of the now extinct VLC colony and the connectivity between this and extant breeding sites. We found a clear expansion signal in the VLC population approximately 8,000 YBP, followed by directional migration away from VLC and the loss of diversity at approximately 1,000 YBP, when sea ice is thought to have expanded. Our data suggest that VLC seals came initially from MQ and that some returned there once the VLC habitat was lost, approximately 7,000 years later. We track the founder-extinction dynamics of a population from inception to extinction in the context of Holocene climate change and present evidence that an unexpectedly diverse, differentiated breeding population was founded from a distant source population soon after habitat became available.

  14. Rapid response of a marine mammal species to holocene climate and habitat change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bruyn, Mark; Hall, Brenda L; Chauke, Lucas F; Baroni, Carlo; Koch, Paul L; Hoelzel, A Rus

    2009-07-01

    Environmental change drives demographic and evolutionary processes that determine diversity within and among species. Tracking these processes during periods of change reveals mechanisms for the establishment of populations and provides predictive data on response to potential future impacts, including those caused by anthropogenic climate change. Here we show how a highly mobile marine species responded to the gain and loss of new breeding habitat. Southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, remains were found along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC) in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, 2,500 km from the nearest extant breeding site on Macquarie Island (MQ). This habitat was released after retreat of the grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment 7,500-8,000 cal YBP, and is within the range of modern foraging excursions from the MQ colony. Using ancient mtDNA and coalescent models, we tracked the population dynamics of the now extinct VLC colony and the connectivity between this and extant breeding sites. We found a clear expansion signal in the VLC population approximately 8,000 YBP, followed by directional migration away from VLC and the loss of diversity at approximately 1,000 YBP, when sea ice is thought to have expanded. Our data suggest that VLC seals came initially from MQ and that some returned there once the VLC habitat was lost, approximately 7,000 years later. We track the founder-extinction dynamics of a population from inception to extinction in the context of Holocene climate change and present evidence that an unexpectedly diverse, differentiated breeding population was founded from a distant source population soon after habitat became available.

  15. A Pseudoproxy-Ensemble Study of Late-Holocene Climate Field Reconstructions Using CCA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amrhein, D. E.; Smerdon, J. E.

    2009-12-01

    Recent evaluations of late-Holocene multi-proxy reconstruction methods have used pseudoproxy experiments derived from millennial General Circulation Model (GCM) integrations. These experiments assess the performance of a reconstruction technique by comparing pseudoproxy reconstructions, which use restricted subsets of model data, against complete GCM data fields. Most previous studies have tested methodologies using different pseudoproxy noise levels, but only with single realizations for each noise classification. A more robust evaluation of performance is to create an ensemble of pseudoproxy networks with distinct sets of noise realizations and a corresponding reconstruction ensemble that can be evaluated for consistency and sensitivity to random error. This work investigates canonical correlation analysis (CCA) as a late-Holocene climate field reconstruction (CFR) technique using ensembles of pseudoproxy experiments derived from the NCAR CSM 1.4 millennial integration. Three 200-member reconstruction ensembles are computed using pseudoproxies with signal-to-noise ratios (by standard deviation) of 1, 0.5, and 0.25 and locations that approximate the spatial distribution of real-world multiproxy networks. An important component of these ensemble calculations is the independent optimization of the three CCA truncation parameters for each ensemble member. This task is accomplished using an inexpensive discrete optimization algorithm that minimizes both RMS error in the calibration interval and the number of free parameters in the reconstruction model to avoid artificial skill. Within this framework, CCA is investigated for its sensitivity to the level of noise in the pseudoproxy network and the spatial distribution of the network. Warm biases, variance losses, and validation-interval error increase with noise level and vary spatially within the reconstructed fields. Reconstruction skill, measured as grid-point correlations during the validation interval, is lowest in

  16. Tracking climate variability in the western Mediterranean during the Late Holocene: a multiproxy approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Nieto-Moreno

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate variability in the western Mediterranean is reconstructed for the last 4000 yr using marine sediments recovered in the west Algerian-Balearic Basin, near the Alboran Basin. Fluctuations in chemical and mineralogical sediment composition as well as grain size distribution are linked to fluvial-eolian oscillations, changes in redox conditions and paleocurrent intensity. Multivariate analyses allowed us to characterize three main groups of geochemical and mineralogical proxies determining the sedimentary record of this region. These three statistical groups were applied to reconstruct paleoclimate conditions at high resolution during the Late Holocene. An increase in riverine input (fluvial-derived elements – Rb/Al, Ba/Al, REE/Al, Si/Al, Ti/Al, Mg/Al and K/Al ratios, and a decrease in Saharan eolian input (Zr/Al ratio depict the Roman Humid Period and the Little Ice Age, while drier environmental conditions are recognized during the Late Bronze Age-Iron Age, the Dark Ages and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Additionally, faster bottom currents and more energetic hydrodynamic conditions for the former periods are evidenced by enhanced sortable silt (10-63 μm and quartz content, and by better oxygenated bottom waters – as reflected by decreasing redox-sensitive elements (V/Al, Cr/Al, Ni/Al and Zn/Al ratios. In contrast, opposite paleoceanographic conditions are distinguished during the latter periods, i.e. the Late Bronze Age-Iron Age, the Dark Ages and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Although no Ba excess was registered, other paleoproductivity indicators (total organic carbon content, Br/Al ratio, and organometallic ligands such as U and Cu display the highest values during the Roman Humid Period, and together with increasing preservation of organic matter, this period exhibits by far the most intense productivity of the last 4000 yr. Fluctuations in detrital input into the basin as the main process managing deposition, reflected by the

  17. Dendroclimate evidence for extreme hydrologic events over the late Holocene in the Northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearl, J. K.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Pederson, N.; Donnelly, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme hydrologic events pose a present and future threat to cities and infrastructure in the densely populated coastal corridor of the northeastern United States (NE). An understanding of the potential range and return interval of storms, floods, and droughts is important for improving coastal management and hazard planning, as well as the detection and attribution of trends in regional climate phenomena. Here, we examine a suite of evidence for Common Era paleohydroclimate extreme events in the NE. Our study analyzes a network of hydroclimate sensitive trees, subfossil 'drowned' forests and co-located sediment records, using both classical and isotope dendrochronology, radiocarbon analyses, and sediment stratigraphy. Atlantic White cedar (AWC) forests grow along the NE coast and are exposed to severe coastal weather, as they are typically most successful in near-shore, glacially formed depressions. Many coastal AWC sites are ombrotrophic and contain a precipitation or drought signal in their ring widths. Sub-fossil AWC forests are found where near-shore swamps were drowned and exposed to the ocean. Additionally, the rings of coastal AWC may contain the geochemical signature of landfalling tropical cyclones, which bring with them a large influx of precipitation with distinct oxygen isotopes, which can be used to identify these large storms. Dendrochronology, radiocarbon dating, and analysis of sediment cores are used here to identify and date the occurrence of large overwash events along the coastline of the northeastern United States associated with extreme storms.

  18. The greening of the McGill Paleoclimate Model. Part II: Simulation of Holocene millennial-scale natural climate changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yi; Mysak, Lawrence A.; Wang, Zhaomin [McGill University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Global Environmental and Climate Change Centre (GEC3), Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Brovkin, Victor [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 601203, Potsdam (Germany)

    2005-04-01

    Various proxy data reveal that in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the middle Holocene (6 kyr BP) was warmer than the early Holocene (8 kyr BP) as well as the later Holocene, up to the end of the pre-industrial period (1800 AD). This pattern of warming and then cooling in the NH represents the response of the climate system to changes in orbital forcing, vegetation cover and the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the Holocene. In an attempt to better understand these changes in the climate system, the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM) has been coupled to the dynamic global vegetation model known as VECODE (see Part I of this two-part paper), and a number of sensitivity experiments have been performed with the ''green'' MPM. The model results illustrate the following: (1) the orbital forcing together with the vegetation - albedo feedback result in the gradual cooling of global SAT from about 6 kyr BP to the end of the pre-industrial period; (2) the disappearance of the LIS over the period 8-6 kyr BP, associated with vegetation - albedo feedback, allows the global SAT to increase and reach its maximum at around 6 kyr BP; (3) the northern limit of the boreal forest moves northward during the period 8-6.4 kyr BP due to the LIS retreat; (4) during the period 6.4-0 kyr BP, the northern limit of the boreal forest moves southward about 120 km in response to the decreasing summer insolation in the NH; and (5) the desertification of northern Africa during the period 8-2.6 kyr BP is mainly explained by the decreasing summer monsoon precipitation. (orig.)

  19. Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, Heinrich Stadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorzi, Coralie; Fernanda Sanchez Goñi, Maria; Anupama, Krishnamurthy; Prasad, Srinivasan; Hanquiez, Vincent; Johnson, Joel; Giosan, Liviu

    2016-04-01

    In contrast to the East Asian and African monsoons the Indian monsoon is still poorly documented throughout the last climatic cycle (last 135,000 years). Pollen analysis from two marine sediment cores (NGHP-01-16A and NGHP-01-19B) collected from the offshore Godavari and Mahanadi basins, both located in the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) reveals changes in Indian summer monsoon variability and intensity during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, the Heinrich Stadial (HS) 2 and the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5/4 during the ice sheet growth transition. During the first part of the Holocene between 11,300 and 4,200 cal years BP, characterized by high insolation (minimum precession, maximum obliquity), the maximum extension of the coastal forest and mangrove reflects high monsoon rainfall. This climatic regime contrasts with that of the second phase of the Holocene, from 4,200 cal years BP to the present, marked by the development of drier vegetation in a context of low insolation (maximum precession, minimum obliquity). The historical period in India is characterized by an alternation of strong and weak monsoon centennial phases that may reflect the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During the HS 2, a period of low insolation and extensive iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic Ocean, vegetation was dominated by grassland and dry flora indicating pronounced aridity as the result of a weak Indian summer monsoon. The MIS 5/4 glaciation, also associated with low insolation but moderate freshwater fluxes, was characterized by a weaker reduction of the Indian summer monsoon and a decrease of seasonal contrast as recorded by the expansion of dry vegetation and the development of Artemisia, respectively. Our results support model predictions suggesting that insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric

  20. Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin; Carreira, José A; Linares, Juan C

    2017-11-21

    Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.

  1. Late holocene climate derived from vegetation history and plant cellulose stable isotope records from the Great Basin of western North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wigand, P.E.; Hemphill, M.L.; Patra, S.M.

    1994-01-01

    Integration of pollen records, and fossil woodrat midden data recovered from multiple strata of fossil woodrat (Neotoma spp.) dens (middens) in both northern and southern Nevada reveal a detailed paleoclimatic proxy record for the Great Basin during the last 45,000 years in growing detail. Clear, late Holocene climate-linked elevational depressions of plant species' distributions have occurred throughout the Great Basin of up to 200 m below today's and by as much as 1000 m below what they were during the middle Holocene. Horizontal plant range extentions during the Holocene reflecting the final northern most adjustments to Holocene climates range up to several hundred kilometers in the Great Basin. Well documented lags evidenced in the late Holocene response of vegetation communities to increased precipitation indicate reduced effectiveness in the ability of plant communities to assimilate excess precipitation. This resulted in significant runoff that was available for recharge. These responses, although indicating both rapid and dramatic fluctuations of climate for the Holocene, fall far short of the scale of such changes during the late Pleistocene. Extension of these results to Pleistocene woodrat den and pollen data evidence spans lasting several hundred to a thousand or more years during which significantly greater amounts of precipitation would have been available for runnoff or recharge

  2. Climatic-eustatic control of Holocene nearshore parasequence development, southeastern Texas coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.; Kindinger, Jack G.; Flocks, James G.; Stewart, Laura B.

    1999-01-01

    Sediment cores, seismic profiles, radiocarbon dates, and faunal assemblages were used to interpret the depositional setting and geological evolution of the southeastern Texas coast during the last glacio-eustatic cycle. Discrete lithofacies and biofacies zones in the ebb-dominated Sabine Lake estuary and adjacent chenier plain record alternating periods of rapid marine flooding and gradual shoaling related to linked climatic/eustatic fluctuations. Monospecific zones of the mollusks Rangia cuneata and Crassostrea virginica, respectively, indicate high fresh water outflow followed by invasion of marine water, whereas intervening organic-rich zones record bayhead delta deposition. High-frequency parasequence stacking patterns within the valley fill and across the adjacent interfluve reflect an initial rapid rise in sea level about 9 ka that flooded abandoned alluvial terraces and caused onlap of Holocene marsh in the incised valley. The rapid rise was followed by slowly rising and oscillating sea level that filled the deepest portions of the incised valleys with fluvially dominated estuarine deposits, and then a maximum highstand (+1 m msl) about 5 ka that flooded the former subaerial coastal plain between the incised valleys and constructed the highest beach ridges. Between 3.5 and 1.5 ka, sea level oscillated and gradually fell, causing a forced regression and rapid progradation of both the chenier plain and accretionary barrier islands. The only significant sands in the valley fill are (1) falling-stage and lowstand-fluvial sediments between the basal sequence boundary and transgressive surface unconformity, and (2) highstand beach-ridge sediments of the chenier plain.

  3. Late Glacial and Holocene Climate Change in the subantarctic Auckland Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmer, G.; Moy, C. M.; Vandergoes, M.; Gadd, P.; Riesselman, C. R.; Jacobsen, G. E.; Wilson, G. S.; Visinand, C.

    2017-12-01

    Situated within the core of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds, and between the subtropical and subantarctic fronts, the New Zealand subantarctic islands are uniquely positioned to evaluate past ocean and atmospheric change in the middle to high southern latitudes. We collected a series of sediment cores from Auckland Island fjords to produce a high-resolution record of climate change following the Last Glacial Maximum. Physical property and organic geochemical data, Itrax XRF, and visual core descriptions indicate the cores capture several phases of sedimentation. From these studies, we identify four primary sedimentary facies: 1) a deglacial facies exhibiting mm-scale laminae defined by magnetic susceptibility and density contrasts and high counts of elements associated with terrigenous sources; 2) a lacustrine facies defined by very low density, high organic carbon concentrations and low counts of lithophilic elements; 3) a marine transgression facies with moderate density, moderate bioturbation and alternating marine and lacustrine sedimentary components; 4) a marine facies that contains biogenic carbonate. Radiocarbon results indicate deglacial sedimentation was underway in the basin by approximately 19,000 cal yr BP. Lacustrine deposition in ice-free conditions began around 15,600 cal yr BP and continued until marine transgression at approximately 9,500 cal yr BP. During the early Holocene between 11 and 9.5 ka, we observe elevated n-alkane δD values and an overall increase in redox-sensitive elements that signal a combination of warmer atmospheric temperatures and reduced westerly wind strength that drives fjord stratification. Poleward-shifted westerlies south of the Auckland Islands could accommodate these results, but there are few records to corroborate this interpretation. We will discuss these results within the context of developing New Zealand and subantarctic paleoclimate records in order to provide a more comprehensive record of past change.

  4. Palaeoenvironmental transfer functions in a bayesian framework with application to holocene climate variability in the near east

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoelzel, C. [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.

    2006-07-01

    This thesis presents the development of statistical climatological-botanical transfer functions in order to provide reconstructions of Holocene climate variability in the Near East region. Two classical concepts, the biomisation as well as the indicator taxa approach, are translated into a Bayesian network. Fossil pollen spectra of laminated sediments from the Ein Gedi location at the western shoreline of the Dead Sea and from the crater lake Birkat Ram in the northern Golan serve as proxy data, covering the past 10000 and 6500 years, respectively. The climatological variables are winter temperature, summer temperature, and annual precipitation, obtained from the 0.5 x 0.5 degree climatology CRU TS 1.0. The Bayesian biome model is based on the three main vegetation territories, the Mediterranean, the Irano-Turanian, and the Saharo-Arabian territory, which are digitized on the same grid as the climate data. From their spatial extend, a classification in the phase space is described by estimating the conditional probability for the existence of a certain biome given the climate. These biome specific likelihood functions are modelled by a generalised linear model, including second order monomials of the climate variables. A statistical mixture model is applied to the biome probabilities as estimated by the Ein Gedi data, resulting in a posterior probability density function for the three dimensional climate state vector. The indicator taxa model is based on the distribution of 15 Mediterranean taxa. Their spatial extend allows to estimate the taxon specific likelihood functions. In this case, they are conditional probability density functions for the climate state vector given the existence of a certain taxon. In order to address the general problem of multivariate non-normally distributed populations, multivariate normal Copulas are used, which allow to create distribution functions with gamma as well as normal marginal distributions. Applying the model to the Birkat

  5. How Hot was Africa during the Mid-Holocene? Reexamining Africa's Thermal History via integrated Climate and Proxy System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dee, S.; Russell, J. M.; Morrill, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models predict Africa will warm by up to 5°C in the coming century. Reconstructions of African temperature since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have made fundamental contributions to our understanding of past, present, and future climate and can help constrain predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). However, many of these reconstructions are based on proxies of lake temperature, so the confounding influences of lacustrine processes may complicate our interpretations of past changes in tropical climate. These proxy-specific uncertainties require robust methodology for data-model comparison. We develop a new proxy system model (PSM) for paleolimnology to facilitate data-model comparison and to fully characterize uncertainties in climate reconstructions. Output from GCMs are used to force the PSM to simulate lake temperature, hydrology, and associated proxy uncertainties. We compare reconstructed East African lake and air temperatures in individual records and in a stack of 9 lake records to those predicted by our PSM forced with Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) simulations, focusing on the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP). We additionally employ single-forcing transient climate simulations from TraCE (10 kyr to 4 kyr B.P. and historical), as well as 200-yr time slice simulations from CESM1.0 to run the lake PSM. We test the sensitivity of African climate change during the mid-Holocene to orbital, greenhouse gas, and ice-sheet forcing in single-forcing simulations, and investigate dynamical hypotheses for these changes. Reconstructions of tropical African temperature indicate 1-2ºC warming during the mid-Holocene relative to the present, similar to changes predicted in the coming decades. However, most climate models underestimate the warming observed in these paleoclimate data (Fig. 1, 6kyr B.P.). We investigate this discrepancy using the new lake PSM and climate model simulations, with attention to the (potentially non

  6. Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2014-12-01

    During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in

  7. Holocene climate and fjord glaciations in Northeast Greenland: implications for IRD deposition in the North Atlantic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reeh, Niels

    2004-01-01

    been released by intensive sub-glacial melting during the long stay of the ice-islands in coastal waters. The Holocene glacial geological record from Northeast Greenland is compared to the record of ice rafted debris (IRD) from North Atlantic deep-sea sediment cores. The comparison shows that transport...... by icebergs in the form of basal debris is unlikely to be the dominant transport mechanism of IRD to deposition sites in the North Atlantic during the Holocene. The ice rafted debris is more likely to be carried at the surface of sea- (or glacier) ice. This supports the result of previous studies by other...... workers that changes of atmospheric and ocean-surface circulation and temperature are the likely causes of Holocene cycles in IRD concentration in North Atlantic deep-sea sediments....

  8. Human used upper montane ecosystem in the Horton Plains, central Sri Lanka - a link to Lateglacial and early Holocene climate and environmental changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Premathilake, Rathnasiri

    2012-09-01

    This study utilizes radiocarbon-dated pollen, spores, Sphagnum spp. macrofossils and total organic carbon proxies to examine variability of past climate, environment and human activity in montane rainforest, grassland and wetland of the Horton Plains (HP), central Sri Lanka since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The LGM is largely characterized by grasslands and xerophytic herbs dominated open habitats. Arid-LGM punctuated climatic ameliorations, which took place in short episodes. Humans appear to have reached the HP ecosystem after 18,000 cal yrs BP occasionally. The first Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) induced changes in South West Monsoon (SWM) rains occurred at low latitudes between 16,200 and 15,900 cal yrs BP suggesting an onset of monsoon rains. After this event, monsoon rains weakened for several millennia except the period 13,700-13,000 cal yrs BP, but human activity seems to have continued with biomass burning and clearances by slash and burn. Very large size grass pollen grains, which are morphologically similar to pollen from closer forms of Oryza nivara, were found after 13,800 cal yrs BP. Early Holocene extreme and abrupt climate changes seem to have promoted the forms of O. nivara populations in association with humans. New data from the HP would therefore be most interesting to investigate the dispersal and use of domesticated rice in South Asia.

  9. A 13,500 Year Record of Holocene Climate, Fire and Vegetation from Swan Lake, Idaho, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, D.; Anderson, L.; Miller, D. M.; Rosario, J. J.; Starratt, S.; McGeehin, J. P.; Bright, J. E.

    2015-12-01

    Modern climate dynamics in the western US are largely determined by a combination of two factors: 1) the strength and position of midlatitude pressure systems, which, in turn, are responsible for the generation and trajectory of winter storms, and 2) the strength of the North America Monsoon (NAM) which brings summer precipitation northward in response to northern hemisphere warming. Paleoclimate records from the Great Basin of the western US suggest some coherence in the timing of major climatic shifts during the Holocene. However, knowledge of the timing and magnitude of these changes at local scales, which can help explain the relative contribution of midlatitude winter storms vs. NAM, is lacking in many places. Here we present new data that constrain the timing and magnitude of late glacial and Holocene climate variability in the northeastern Great Basin, provide insight into past spatial variability of precipitation patterns in the western US, and improve our understanding of regional scale influences on Great Basin climate. In 2011, a 7.65 m sediment core was raised from Swan Lake, a small wetland located in southeastern Idaho that was formed in the spillway channel created by the catastrophic flooding of Lake Bonneville ~18 ka BP. Pollen, charcoal, clumped isotope, diatom, ostracod, and sedimentological data are used to reconstruct vegetation, fire history, and lake level/groundwater flux over the last 13,500 years. Age control is provided by 19 AMS radiocarbon determinations, which are reported as thousands of calibrated years before present (ka BP). This effort builds on earlier work by Bright (1966) who reported on pollen, macrofossils, and sediment type from Swan Lake. Our data suggest cool and wet conditions prevailed until around 12.3 ka BP, after which a drying trend begins. The early Holocene was marked by a warmer, drier climate, which persisted until around 6.2 ka BP. Moister conditions after 6.2 ka BP likely resulted from a combination of enhanced

  10. Late Holocene climate variability from Lake Pupuke maar, Auckland, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Striewski, B.; Shulmeister, J.; Augustinus, P. C.; Soderholm, J.

    2013-10-01

    Spectral analyses of quasi-annual organo-diatomaceous laminae couplets in an Auckland maar lake indicate brief (sub-decadal scale) episodes with strong spectral power and long periods of weak to no spectral power between c. 1700 to c. 550 cal. yr BP. Laminae couplet thickness appears to be a function of changes in wind flow over the basin, with enhanced wind flow deepening the mixing zone and providing additional nutrients for laminae formation. Aeolian dust from Australia amplifies the wind signal. Spectral signals in the high power episodes are focused in Auckland climate whereby strongly negative (positive) ENSO are associated with enhanced (diminished) SW airflow over Auckland. ENSO events interact in the modern climate and the spectral results indicate that this is the case when spectral power is strong in the laminae. These results highlight strong but intermittent ENSO activity between 600 and 1400 cal. yr BP.

  11. Evidence for a possible modern and mid-Holocene solar influence on climate from Lake Titicaca, South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theissen, K. M.; Dunbar, R. B.

    2005-12-01

    In tropical regions, there are few paleoclimate archives with the necessary resolution to investigate climate variability at interannual-to-decadal timescales prior to the onset of the instrumental record. Interannual variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented in the instrumental record and the importance of the precessional forcing of millennial variability has been established in studies of tropical paleoclimate records. In contrast, decade-to-century variability is still poorly understood. Here, we examine interannual to decadal variability in the northern Altiplano of South America using digital image analysis of a floating interval of varved sediments of middle Holocene age (~6160-6310 yr BP) from Lake Titicaca. Multi-taper method (MTM) and wavelet frequency-domain analyses were performed on a time series generated from a gray-scaled digital image of the mm-thick laminations. Our results indicate significant power at a decadal periodicity (10-12 years) associated with the Schwabe cycle of solar activity. Frequency-domain analysis also indicates power at 2-2.5 year periodicities associated with ENSO. Similarly, spectral analysis of a 75 year instrumental record of Titicaca lake level shows significant power at both solar and ENSO periodicities. Although both of the examined records are short, our results imply that during both the mid-Holocene and modern times, solar and ENSO variability may have contributed to high frequency climate fluctuations over the northern Altiplano. We suspect that solar influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation features may account for the decadal variability in the mid-Holocene and present-day water balance of the Altiplano.

  12. Testing the Millennial-Scale Holocene Solar-Climate Connection in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khider, D.; Emile-Geay, J.; McKay, N.; Jackson, C. S.; Routson, C.

    2016-12-01

    The existence of 1000 and 2500-year periodicities found in reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) and a number of Holocene climate records has led to the hypothesis of a causal relationship. However, attributing Holocene millennial-scale variability to solar forcing requires a mechanism by which small changes in total irradiance can influence a global climate response. One possible amplifier within the climate system is the ocean. If this is the case, then we need to know more about where and how this may be occurring. On the other hand, the similarity in spectral peaks could be merely coincidental, and this should be made apparent by a lack of coherence in how that power and phasing are distributed in time and space. The plausibility of the solar forcing hypothesis is assessed through a Bayesian model of the age uncertainties affecting marine sedimentary records that is propagated through spectral analysis of the climate and forcing signals at key frequencies. Preliminary work on Mg/Ca and alkenone records from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool suggests that despite large uncertainties in the location of the spectral peaks within each individual record arising from age model uncertainty, sea surface variability on timescales of 1025±36 years and 2427±133 years (±standard error of the mean of the median periodicity in each record) are present in at least 95% and 70% of the ensemble spectra, respectively. However, we find a long phase delay between the peak in forcing and the maximum response in at least one of the records, challenging the solar forcing hypothesis and requiring further investigation between low- and high-latitude signals. Remarkably, all records suggest a periodicity near 1470±85 years, reminiscent of the cycles characteristic of Marine Isotope Stage 3; these cycles are absent from existing records of TSI, further questioning the millennial solar-climate connection.

  13. Beaver Activity, Holocene Climate and Riparian Landscape Change Across Stream Scales in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, R.; Meyer, G. A.

    2013-12-01

    Beaver (Castor canadensis) have been part of the fluvial and riparian landscape across much of North America since the Pleistocene, increasing channel habitat complexity and expanding riparian landscapes. The fur trade, however, decimated beaver populations by the 1840s, and other human activities have limited beaver in many areas, including parts of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Understanding fluctuations in beaver occupation through the Holocene will aid in understanding the natural range of variability in beaver activity as well as climatic and anthropogenic impacts to fluvial systems. We are developing a detailed chronology of beaver-assisted sedimentation and overall fluvial activity for Odell and Red Rock Creeks (basin areas 83 and 99 km2) in Centennial Valley (CV), Montana, to augment related studies on the long-term effects of beaver on smaller GYE fluvial systems (basin areas 0.1-50 km2). In developing the CV chronology, we use the presence of concentrations of beaver-chewed sticks as a proxy for beaver occupancy. Beaver-stick deposits are found in paleochannel and fluvial terrace exposures. The relative ages of exposures were determined by elevation data from airborne LiDAR and ground surveys. Numerical ages were obtained from 36 14C ages (~30 more are pending) of beaver-stick wood collected during investigation of the stratigraphy. Most beaver-stick deposits are associated with ~ 1 meter of fine-grained sediment, interpreted as overbank deposits, commonly overlying gravelly sand or pebble gravel channel deposits which is consistent with enhanced overbank sedimentation associated with active beaver dams in CV streams. The CV deposits differ from those on smaller GYE streams where beaver-stick deposits are associated with abandoned dams (berms), infilled ponds and laminated sediments. The lack of pond-related deposition associated with CV beaver-stick deposits is consistent with frequent dam breaching (≤ 5 years) in the modern channel of Odell

  14. Late Holocene Vegetation and Climate at the Mid Altitudes of the Western Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    ROY, I.; Ranhotra, P. S.; Shekhar, M.; Bhattacharyya, A.; Agrawal, S.; Kumar, P.; Patil, S. K.; Pal, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    The palynological, stable carbon isotope and magnetic susceptibility studies of a 42 cm deep sedimentary core collected from palaeolacustrine deposit at the Nachiketa area ( 2,400 m amsl) near Uttarkashi of Western Himalaya provides the late Holocene vegetation and climatic scenario of the area. Between 3200 to 1650 cal yrs BP, the high susceptibility (χlf) values along with the good frequency of fern spores might indicate the prevailing moist conditions due to high summer monsoon with good influx of the sediments. However, the low pollen concentration between 3200 to 2680 cal years BP might be due to less ground vegetation cover or poor pollen preservation in the sediments. The well represented fern spores along with the other ground vegetation taxa in the period from 1650 cal yrs BP to 600 cal yrs BP also indicates the continuous prevalence of moist conditions that can be related with the globally known medieval warm period (MWP), supported by the δ13C values around -24‰ during this time and the high χLF values. Moreover, the good representation of Cyperaceae pollen suggests the in-filling of the lake followed by the invasion of ground vegetation viz. Cheno/Ams, Apiaceae, Poaceae etc. The good pollen frequency of broadleaved taxa viz. Quercus and Alnus also supports the moist conditions. Since 600 cal years BP the lowered χLF values signifies reduced input from the surrounding suggesting the filling of the lake. The marked increase in the pollen frequency of Cheno/Ams with low values of fern spores suggest less moist conditions with reduced summer monsoon that can be related to Little Ice Age (LIA) episode. Also the low negative δ13C values (around -21‰) indicates the less ground moisture supporting the C4 taxa. The Quercus and Alnus also reduced in their pollen presence. Whereas the Pinus pollen increased gradually since nearly before 410 cal years BP till recent showing the increased invasion of this taxa to near proximity of the area. The

  15. Accelerator mass spectrometry: An important tool for the geochronology of past climatic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jull, A.J.T.; Burr, G.S.; Beck, J.W.; Donahue, D.J.

    2002-01-01

    glacial, via a Bering land bridge. The rapid expansion of early man into central north America does not appear to have occurred until about 12,000 radiocarbon years BP. This is still consistent with the established idea of an ice barrier east of the Rockies which ceased to exist about this time. The Bering land bridge would have remained intact until ∼10,000 radiocarbon years BP. We can understand this However, recent evidence of some possible older occupations raises some questions about this model and there may also have been other modes of settlement. During the Holocene, we also observe climatic fluctuations. An excellent example is the periodicity of forest fires in western North America. Meyer et al. showed these can be correlated with periods of aridity. Other periodicities in the Holocene climatic record can often be related to solar fluctuations, the most obvious are the medieval warm period and the Maunder minimum, a time also associated with colder weather in Europe. In this paper, we will highlight paleoclimate studies which can be well dated using AMS radiocarbon. These signals manifest themselves not only in the climate record but affect the extinction of megafauna and archaeological events. There are also climatic effects in such varied reservoirs as Chinese loess deposits, forest fire recurrence, meteorite weathering rates and other phenomena will be discussed, as well as the more familiar ice cores and oceanic sediments. We will also focus on hiatuses in the radiocarbon calibration curve which appear to be related to some major climatic events. (author)

  16. Late Holocene monsoon climate as evidenced by proxy records from a lacustrine sediment sequence in western Guangdong, South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Wei; Cao, jiayuan; Xue, Jibin; Ouyang, Jun; Tang, Xiaohong; Yin, Huanling; Liao, Congyun; Long, Kun

    2014-02-01

    The study of a 300-cm-thick exposed lacustrine sediment section in the Hedong village in Zhaoqing area which is located in sub-tropical west Guangdong Province in South China, demonstrates that the lacustrine sedimentary sequence possibly contains evidence for exploring variation of Asian monsoon climate. Multi-proxy records, including the humification intensity, total organic carbon, and grain size fractions, reveal a general trend towards dry and cold conditions in the late Holocene that this is because of a decrease in solar insolation on an orbital scale. Three intensified Asian summer monsoon (ASM) intervals (˜3300-3000 cal yr BP, ˜2600-1600 cal yr BP, and ˜900-600 cal yr BP), and three weakened ASM intervals (˜4000-3300 cal yr BP, ˜3000-2600 cal yr BP, and ˜1600-900 cal yr BP) are identified. Our humification record (HDcal) shows a good correlation on multi-centennial scale with the tree ring Δ14C record, a proxy of solar activity. A spectral analysis of HDcal reveals four significant cycles, i.e., ˜1250 yr, 300 yr, 110 yr, and 70 yr, and most of these cycles are related to the solar activity. Our findings indicate that solar output and oceanic-atmospheric circulation probably have influenced the late Holocene climate variability in the study region.

  17. Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2013-12-01

    Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such

  18. Lake Ecosystem Responses to Holocene Climate Change at the Subarctic Tree-Line in Northern Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reuss, Nina Steenberg; Hammarlund, Dan; Rundgren, Mats

    2010-01-01

    sedimentary pigments, diatoms, chironomids, pollen, biogenic silica (BSi), carbon (C), nitrogen (N) elemental and stable-isotope records, and total lake-water organic carbon (TOC) concentration inferred from near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), suggest that the Holocene development of Lake Seukokjaure...

  19. A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

    2013-02-01

    We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

  20. Holocene aridification of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponton, C.; Giosan, L.; Eglinton, T.I.; Fuller, D.Q.; Johnson, J.E.; Kumar, P.; Collett, T.S.

    2012-01-01

    Spanning a latitudinal range typical for deserts, the Indian peninsula is fertile instead and sustains over a billion people through monsoonal rains. Despite the strong link between climate and society, our knowledge of the long-term monsoon variability is incomplete over the Indian subcontinent. Here we reconstruct the Holocene paleoclimate in the core monsoon zone (CMZ) of the Indian peninsula using a sediment core recovered offshore from the mouth of Godavari River. Carbon isotopes of sedimentary leaf waxes provide an integrated and regionally extensive record of the flora in the CMZ and document a gradual increase in aridity-adapted vegetation from ???4,000 until 1,700 years ago followed by the persistence of aridity-adapted plants after that. The oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber detects unprecedented high salinity events in the Bay of Bengal over the last 3,000 years, and especially after 1,700 years ago, which suggest that the CMZ aridification intensified in the late Holocene through a series of sub-millennial dry episodes. Cultural changes occurred across the Indian subcontinent as the climate became more arid after ???4,000 years. Sedentary agriculture took hold in the drying central and south India, while the urban Harappan civilization collapsed in the already arid Indus basin. The establishment of a more variable hydroclimate over the last ca. 1,700 years may have led to the rapid proliferation of water-conservation technology in south India. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.

  1. To what extent can global warming events influence scaling properties of climatic fluctuations in glacial periods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberti, Tommaso; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio; Carbone, Vincenzo

    2017-04-01

    The Earth's climate is an extremely unstable complex system consisting of nonlinear and still rather unknown interactions among atmosphere, land surface, ice and oceans. The system is mainly driven by solar irradiance, even if internal components as volcanic eruptions and human activities affect the atmospheric composition thus acting as a driver for climate changes. Since the extreme climate variability is the result of a set of phenomena operating from daily to multi-millennial timescales, with different correlation times, a study of the scaling properties of the system can evidence non-trivial persistent structures, internal or external physical processes. Recently, the scaling properties of the paleoclimate changes have been analyzed by distinguish between interglacial and glacial climates [Shao and Ditlevsen, 2016]. The results show that the last glacial record (20-120 kyr BP) presents some elements of multifractality, while the last interglacial period (0-10 kyr BP), say the Holocene period, seems to be characterized by a mono-fractal structure. This is associated to the absence of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events in the interglacial climate that could be the cause for the absence of multifractality. This hypothesis is supported by the analysis of the period between 18 and 27 kyr BP, i.e. during the Last Glacial Period, in which a single DO event have been registred. Through the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) we were able to detect a timescale separation within the Last Glacial Period (20-120 kyr BP) in two main components: a high-frequency component, related to the occurrence of DO events, and a low-frequency one, associated to the cooling/warming phase switch [Alberti et al., 2014]. Here, we investigate the scaling properties of the climate fluctuations within the Last Glacial Period, where abrupt climate changes, characterized by fast increase of temperature usually called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, have been particularly pronounced. By using the

  2. Spatially explicit modelling of extreme weather and climate events ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The reality of climate change continues to influence the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides. The impacts of the cumulative interplay of these extreme weather and climate events variation continue to perturb governments causing a scramble into formation ...

  3. Broadleaf deciduous forest counterbalanced the direct effect of climate on Holocene fire regime in hemiboreal/boreal region (NE Europe)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feurdean, Angelica; Veski, Siim; Florescu, Gabriela; Vannière, Boris; Pfeiffer, Mirjam; O'Hara, Robert B.; Stivrins, Normunds; Amon, Leeli; Heinsalu, Atko; Vassiljev, Jüri; Hickler, Thomas

    2017-08-01

    Disturbances by fire are essential for the functioning of boreal/hemiboreal forests, but knowledge of long-term fire regime dynamics is limited. We analysed macrocharcoal morphologies and pollen of a sediment record from Lake Lielais Svētiņu (eastern Latvia), and in conjunction with fire traits analysis present the first record of Holocene variability in fire regime, fuel sources and fire types in boreal forests of the Baltic region. We found a phase of moderate to high fire activity during the cool and moist early (mean fire return interval; mFRI of ∼280 years; 11,700-7500 cal yr BP) and the late (mFRI of ∼190 years; 4500-0 cal yr BP) Holocene and low fire activity (mFRI of ∼630 years) during the Holocene Thermal Optimum (7500-4500 cal yr BP). Charcoal morphotypes and the pollen record show the predominance of frequent surface fires, occasionally transitioning to the crown during Pinus sylvestris-Betula boreal forests and less frequent surface fires during the dominance of temperate deciduous forests. In contrast to the prevailing opinion that fires in boreal forests are mostly low to moderate severity surface fires, we found evidence for common occurrence of stand-replacing crown fires in Picea abies canopy. Our results highlight that charcoal morphotypes analysis allows for distinguishing the fuel types and surface from crown fires, therefore significantly advancing our interpretation of fire regime. Future warmer temperatures and increase in the frequency of dry spells and abundant biomass accumulation can enhance the fire risk on the one hand, but will probably promote the expansion of broadleaf deciduous forests to higher latitudes, on the other hand. By highlighting the capability of broadleaf deciduous forests to act as fire-suppressing landscape elements, our results suggest that fire activity may not increase in the Baltic area under future climate change.

  4. Latest Pleistocene and Holocene glacial events in the Colonia valley, Northern Patagonia Icefield, southern Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nimick, David A.; Mcgrath, Daniel; Mahan, Shannon; Friesen, Beverly A.; Leidich, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    The Northern Patagonia Icefield (NPI) is the primary glaciated terrain worldwide at its latitude (46.5–47.5°S), and constraining its glacial history provides unique information for reconstructing Southern Hemisphere paleoclimate. The Colonia Glacier is the largest outlet glacier draining the eastern NPI. Ages were determined using dendrochronology, lichenometry, radiocarbon, cosmogenic 10Be and optically stimulated luminescence. Dated moraines in the Colonia valley defined advances at 13.2 ± 0.95, 11.0 ± 0.47 and 4.96 ± 0.21 ka, with the last being the first constraint on the onset of Neoglaciation for the eastern NPI from a directly dated landform. Dating in the tributary Cachet valley, which contains an ice-dammed lake during periods of Colonia Glacier expansion, defined an advance at ca. 2.95 ± 0.21 ka, periods of advancement at 810 ± 49 cal a BP and 245 ± 13 cal a BP, and retreat during the intervening periods. Recent Colonia Glacier thinning, which began in the late 1800s, opened a lower-elevation outlet channel for Lago Cachet Dos in ca. 1960. Our data provide the most comprehensive set of Latest Pleistocene and Holocene ages for a single NPI outlet glacier and expand previously developed NPI glacial chronologies.

  5. Holocene glacial fluctuations in southern South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynhout, S.; Sagredo, E. A.; Kaplan, M. R.; Aravena, J. C.; Martini, M. A.; Strelin, J. A.; Schaefer, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding the timing and magnitude of former glacier fluctuations is critical to decipher long-term climatic trends and to unravel both natural cycles and human impact on the current glacial behavior. Despite more than seven decades of research efforts, a unifying model of Holocene glacial fluctuations in Southern South America remains elusive. Here, we present the state-of-the-art regarding the timing of Holocene glacial fluctuation in southern Patagonia-Tierra del Fuego, with a focus on a new generation of high-resolution radiocarbon and 10Be surface exposure dating chronologies. Recently acquired evidence suggest that after receding from advanced Late Glacial positions, Patagonian glaciers were for the most part close to, or even behind, present ice margins during the Early Holocene. On the other hand, emerging chronologies indicate that in some areas there were extensive expansions (century scale?) that punctuated the warm interval. Subsequently, we have evidence of multiple millennial timescale glacial advances starting in the middle Holocene. Several glacial maxima are defined by moraines and other landforms from 7000 years ago to the 19th century, with a gap sometime between 4,500 and 2,500 years ago. The last set of advances began around 800-600 years ago. Although glacial activity is documented in Patagonia at the same time as the European Little Ice Age, the extent of these glacial events are less prominent than those of the mid-Holocene. The causes that may explain these glacial fluctuations remain elusive. Finally, we discuss ongoing efforts to better define the timing and extent of Holocene glaciations in southern South America, and to establish the basis to test competing hypothesis of regional Holocene climate variability.

  6. Late Glacial to Holocene climate change and human impact in the Mediterranean : The last ca. 17ka diatom record of Lake Prespa (Macedonia/Albania/Greece)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cvetkoska, Aleksandra; Levkov, Zlatko; Reed, Jane M.; Wagner, Bernd

    2014-01-01

    Lake Prespa (Macedonia/Albania/Greece) occupies an important location between Mediterranean and central European climate zones. Although previous multi-proxy research on the Late Glacial to Holocene sequence, core Co1215 (320cm; ca. 17cal ka BP to present), has demonstrated its great value as an

  7. Millennial-scale climate variations in western Mediterranean during late Pleistocene-early Holocene: multi-proxy analyses from Padul peatbog (southern Iberian Peninsula)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camuera, Jon; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; José Ramos-Román, María; García-Alix, Antonio; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco; Toney, Jaime L.; Anderson, R. Scott; Kaufman, Darrell; Bright, Jordon; Sachse, Dirk

    2017-04-01

    Padul peatbog, located in southern Iberian Peninsula (western Mediterranean region) is a unique area for palaeoenvironmental studies due to its location, between arid and temperate climates. Previous studies showed that the Padul peatbog contains a continuous record of the last ca. 0.8-1 Ma, so it is an extraordinary site to identify glacial-interglacial phases as well as Heinrich and D-O events, linked to orbital- and suborbital-scale variations. In 2015, a new 42 m long core was taken from this area, providing an excellent sediment record probably for the last ca. 300,000 years. This study is focused on the paleoenvironmental and climatic reconstruction of the late Pleistocene and the early Holocene (ca. from 50,000 to 9,500 cal. yrs BP), using AMS 14C and AAR dating, high-resolution pollen analysis, lithology, continuous XRF-scanning, X-ray diffraction, magnetic susceptibility and organic geochemistry. These different proxies provide information not only about the regional environment change but also about local changes in the conditions of the Padul lake/peatbog due to variations in water temperature, pH or nutrients.

  8. Relation between the sedimentary organic record and the climatic oscilations in the Holocene attested by palynofacies and organic geochemical analyses from a pond of altitude in southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GABRIELLI T. GADENS-MARCON

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the quantitative and qualitative results obtained from palynofacies and geochemistry analyses carried out on a core covering approximately 8000 years of sedimentation of a pond of altitude located at the mining district of Ametista do Sul, southernmost Brazil. The main objective of this paper is to consider the paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental significance of these analyses. The hydrological isolation renders this pond climatically sensitive to variations in pluviometric regime and this enabled infer rainfall events during the early Holocene, which was responsible for the beginning of the processes of water accumulation in the gossan and the sedimentation of the pond. Changes in the pattern of moisture over the time become the drier environment, resulting in the intermittent pattern of water depth that currently exists at the site. The fluctuations in water depth are inferred from the frequency of Botryococcus and other algae, which tend to decrease progressively toward the top where the autochthonous elements are replaced by parautochthonous and allochthonous elements. Pseudoschizaea, in turn, appears to act as a biological marker of these transitional intervals. The present results are of great importance for understanding the extent of climate change and its environmental impacts at regional and global levels.

  9. Holocene environmental changes recorded in Dicksonfjorden and Woodfjorden, Svalbard: impacts of global climate changes in a glacial-marine system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joo, Y. J.; Nam, S. I.; Son, Y. J.; Forwick, M.

    2017-12-01

    Fjords in the Svalbard archipelago are characterized by an extreme environmental gradient between 1) the glacial system affected by tidewater glaciers and seasonal sea ice inside the fjords and 2) the warm Atlantic Water intrusion by the West Spitsbergen Current from open ocean. As sediment is largely supplied from the terrestrial source area exposed along the steep slopes of the fjords, the changes in the surface processes affected by glaciers are likely preserved in the sediments in the inner fjords. On the other hand, variations in the influence of the warm Atlantic Water in the marine realm (e.g. marine productivity) can be archived in the sediment deposited in the vicinity of the entrance to the fjords. Since the last deglaciation of the Svalbard-Barents ice sheet ( 13000 yrs BP), the Svalbard fjords have faced dramatic climate changes including the early Holocene Climate Optimum (HCO) and subsequent cooling that eventually led to the current cold and dry climate. We investigate the Holocene environmental changes in both terrestrial and marine realms based on stable isotopic and inorganic geochemical analyses of sediments deposited in Dicksonfjorden and Woodfjorden in the western and northern Spitsbergen, respectively. The two fjords are expected to provide intriguing information regarding how terrestrial and marine realms of the Arctic fjords system responded to regional and global climate changes. Being a branch of the larger Isfjorden, Dicksonfjorden penetrates deeply to the land, whereas Woodfjorden is rather directly connected to the open ocean. Accordingly, the results suggest that the Dicksonfjorden sediment records mainly terrestrial signals with marked fluctuations in sediment composition that coincide with major climate changes (e.g. HCO). On the contrary, the two Woodfjorden cores collected from different parts of the fjord exhibit contrasting results, likely illustrating differing response of terrestrial and marine realms to the climate changes in

  10. Adaptation to extreme climate events at a regional scale

    OpenAIRE

    Hoffmann, Christin

    2017-01-01

    A significant increase of the frequency, the intensity and the duration of extreme climate events in Switzerland induces the need to find a strategy to deal with the damages they cause. For more than two decades, mitigation has been the main objective of climate policy. However, due to already high atmospheric carbon concentrations and the inertia of the climate system, climate change is unavoidable to some degree, even if today’s emissions were almost completely cut back. Along with the high...

  11. Climate control on late Holocene high-energy sedimentation along coasts of the northeastern Atlantic Ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Poirier , Clément; Tessier , Bernadette; Chaumillon , Eric

    2017-01-01

    International audience; Abundant sedimentological and geochronological data gathered on European sandy coasts highlight major phases of increased high-energy sedimentation in the North Atlantic Ocean during the late Holocene. Owing to an inconsistent use of the terminology, it is often difficult to determine whether studies have described storm-built or wave-built deposits. Both deposits can be identified by overall similar coarse-grained sedimentary facies, but may provide contradictory pale...

  12. Compilation of information on the climate and evaluation of the hydrochemical and isotopic composition during Late Pleistocene and Holocene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Cecilia

    1998-01-01

    This report summarises and evaluates some of the existing information on the Late Pleistocene and Holocene climates, i.e. the last 130 000 years. An estimation of the conditions at the Aespoe island (southeast Sweden) has also been made during this time span. The knowledge about Late Pleistocene (Eemian Interglacial and Weichselian glacial) is not yet fully understood. There are still a lot of assumptions concerning this period and more information is needed to be able to establish the climatic conditions. This is not the case for the Weichselian deglaciation and the present interglacial, Holocene, for which the environmental conditions are quite certain. It has been concluded, however, that the Eemian climatic development probably was similar to the Holocene but perhaps somewhat warmer and more humid. The Eemian Baltic Sea level was probably also higher than the present Baltic Sea level and there was a connection between it and the White Sea in the northeast. Aespoe was probably situated below sea level during the greater part of Eemian. Not much is known about the last glacial period, the Weichselian glaciation, until the final deglaciation. The ice sheet during Early Weichselian was probably mostly concentrated to the Scandinavian mountain area and in northern Scandinavia. At least two intervals with higher temperatures have been recorded, the Broerup and Odderade interstadials. The Middle Weichselian substage is characterised by fluctuations, melting and re-advances. Aespoe was probably not glaciated until the middle or latter part of Middle Weichselian. The maximum extension of the Weichselian ice sheet occurred in Late Weichselian, around 20 to 18 ka BP, which was succeeded by the final deglaciation. The retreat of the Weichselian ice sheet is described by for example end moraines and glacial varved clay. The Aespoe area was glaciated until 12 500 BP. Huge quantities of glacial meltwater was released into the Baltic basin as the ice receded. Due to different

  13. Compilation of information on the climate and evaluation of the hydrochemical and isotopic composition during Late Pleistocene and Holocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Cecilia [Intera KB (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    This report summarises and evaluates some of the existing information on the Late Pleistocene and Holocene climates, i.e. the last 130 000 years. An estimation of the conditions at the Aespoe island (southeast Sweden) has also been made during this time span. The knowledge about Late Pleistocene (Eemian Interglacial and Weichselian glacial) is not yet fully understood. There are still a lot of assumptions concerning this period and more information is needed to be able to establish the climatic conditions. This is not the case for the Weichselian deglaciation and the present interglacial, Holocene, for which the environmental conditions are quite certain. It has been concluded, however, that the Eemian climatic development probably was similar to the Holocene but perhaps somewhat warmer and more humid. The Eemian Baltic Sea level was probably also higher than the present Baltic Sea level and there was a connection between it and the White Sea in the northeast. Aespoe was probably situated below sea level during the greater part of Eemian. Not much is known about the last glacial period, the Weichselian glaciation, until the final deglaciation. The ice sheet during Early Weichselian was probably mostly concentrated to the Scandinavian mountain area and in northern Scandinavia. At least two intervals with higher temperatures have been recorded, the Broerup and Odderade interstadials. The Middle Weichselian substage is characterised by fluctuations, melting and re-advances. Aespoe was probably not glaciated until the middle or latter part of Middle Weichselian. The maximum extension of the Weichselian ice sheet occurred in Late Weichselian, around 20 to 18 ka BP, which was succeeded by the final deglaciation. The retreat of the Weichselian ice sheet is described by for example end moraines and glacial varved clay. The Aespoe area was glaciated until 12 500 BP. Huge quantities of glacial meltwater was released into the Baltic basin as the ice receded. Due to different

  14. Climate and lake-level history of the northern Altiplano, Bolivia, as recorded in Holocene sediments of the Rio Desaguadero

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baucom, P.C.; Rigsby, C.A. [East Carolina Univ., Greenville, NC (United States). Dept. of Geology

    1999-05-01

    Strata exposed in terraces and modern cutbanks along the Rio Desaguadero contain a variety of lithofacies that were deposited in four distinct facies associations. These facies associations document a history of aggradation and downcutting that is linked to Holocene climate change on the Altiplano. Braided-stream, meandering-stream, deltaic and shoreline, and lacustrine sediments preserved in multi-level terraces in the northern Rio Desaguadero valley record two high-water intervals: one between 4,500 and 3,900 yr BP and another between 2,000 and 2,200 yr BP. These wet periods were interrupted by three periods of fluvial downcutting, centered at approximately 4,000 yr BP, 3,600 yr BP, and after 2,000 yr BP. Braided-river sediments preserved in a single terrace level in the southern Rio Desaguadero valley record a history of nearly continuous fluvial sedimentation from at least 7,000 yr BP until approximately 3,200 yr BP that was followed by a single episode (post-3,210 yr BP) of down-cutting and lateral migration. The deposition and subsequent fluvial downcutting of the northern strata was controlled by changes in effective moisture that can be correlated to Holocene water-level fluctuations of Lake Titicaca. The deposition and dissection of braided-stream sediments to the south are more likely controlled by a combination of base-level change and sediment input from the Rio Mauri.

  15. Inferring climate sensitivity from volcanic events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boer, G.J. [Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Stowasser, M.; Hamilton, K. [University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Centre, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2007-04-15

    The possibility of estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the earth-system from observations following explosive volcanic eruptions is assessed in the context of a perfect model study. Two modern climate models (the CCCma CGCM3 and the NCAR CCSM2) with different equilibrium climate sensitivities are employed in the investigation. The models are perturbed with the same transient volcano-like forcing and the responses analysed to infer climate sensitivities. For volcano-like forcing the global mean surface temperature responses of the two models are very similar, despite their differing equilibrium climate sensitivities, indicating that climate sensitivity cannot be inferred from the temperature record alone even if the forcing is known. Equilibrium climate sensitivities can be reasonably determined only if both the forcing and the change in heat storage in the system are known very accurately. The geographic patterns of clear-sky atmosphere/surface and cloud feedbacks are similar for both the transient volcano-like and near-equilibrium constant forcing simulations showing that, to a considerable extent, the same feedback processes are invoked, and determine the climate sensitivity, in both cases. (orig.)

  16. Fluvial response to the last Holocene rapid climate change in the Northwestern Mediterranean coastlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degeai, Jean-Philippe; Devillers, Benoît; Blanchemanche, Philippe; Dezileau, Laurent; Oueslati, Hamza; Tillier, Margaux; Bohbot, Hervé

    2017-05-01

    The variability of fluvial activity in the Northwestern Mediterranean coastal lowlands and its relationship with modes of climate change were analysed from the late 9th to the 18th centuries CE. Geochemical analyses were undertaken from a lagoonal sequence and surrounding sediments in order to track the fluvial inputs into the lagoon. An index based on the K/S and Rb/S ratios was used to evidence the main periods of fluvial activity. This index reveals that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) was a drier period characterized by a lower fluvial activity, while the Little Ice Age (LIA) was a wetter period with an increase of the river dynamics. Three periods of higher than average fluvial activity were evidenced at the end of the first millennium CE (ca. 900-950 cal yr CE), in the first half of the second millennium CE (ca. 1150-1550 cal yr CE), and during the 1600s-1700s CE (ca. 1650-1800 cal yr CE). The comparison of these fluvial periods with other records of riverine or lacustrine floods in Spain, Italy, and South of France seems to indicate a general increase in fluvial and flood patterns in the Northwestern Mediterranean in response to the climate change from the MCA to the LIA, although some episodes of flooding are not found in all records. Besides, the phases of higher than average fluvial dynamics are in good agreement with the North Atlantic cold events evidenced from records of ice-rafted debris. The evolution of fluvial activity in the Northwestern Mediterranean coastlands during the last millennium could have been driven by atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns.

  17. Holocene evolution of a montane lake catchment inferred from multiproxy sediment analysis : climatic and anthropic impacts in french prealps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajard, Manon; Sabatier, Pierre; Poulenard, Jérôme; David, Fernand; Arnaud, Fabien; Develle, Anne-Lise; Reyss, Jean-Louis; Fanget, Bernard; Malet, Emmanuel; Crouzet, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Lake La Thuile in the Massif des Bauges (874 m a.s.l. French Alps) provides a 18 meters sedimentary sequence. Due to its mid-altitude position, this lake is one of the first to be formed through the glacial retreat and documents the evolution of its catchment since the Late Glacial Maximum. The first 6 meters of the core cover the last 12 000 years, and allowed to study human/climate/environment interactions in a carbonated environment. This study is the first one to investigate a mid-altitude lake in the French Alps for paleoenvironment reconstruction from lake sediment archive. Its altitudinal position presents the advantage to be very accessible to human activities and allows more developed agriculture than in higher altitude. This study aims to determined how and when is expressed the erosive response of such an environment to human settlement. High resolution multiproxy analysis of the first 6 meters including sedimentological, palynological and geochemical data associated to a well-constrained chronology over the Holocene period allows us to understand the respective impacts of both climate and human on the evolution of Lake La Thuile environment. Five major phases of evolution have been highlighted over this period. From 12 000 to 10 000 yr cal. BP, the vegetation is developing with the onset of hardwood species and the disappearance of Pinus. From 10 000 to 4500 yr cal. BP the warmer climatic conditions of the middle of the Holocene allows the forest to densify and the very low sedimentation rate indicates that the forest stabilizes slopes and prevents from the erosion on the watershed. The climate cooling of the Neoglacial period triggers a first erosive phase with a decreasing of the forest around 3300 cal. BP. Human settlements are suggested at La Thuile from 2500 yr cal. BP by palynological evidence of anthropic taxa. The triggered clearing is accompanied by a second erosive phase related to anthropic activities during the Roman period. Erosion

  18. Climate, catchment runoff and limnological drivers of carbon and oxygen isotope composition of diatom frustules from the central andean altiplano during the Lateglacial and Early Holocene

    OpenAIRE

    Hernández, Armand; Bao, Roberto; Giralt, Santiago; Sáez, Alberto; Leng, Melanie J.; Barker, Philips A.; Kendrick, C.P.; Sloane, Hilary J.

    2013-01-01

    Diatom-based carbon and oxygen isotope analyses (δ13Cdiatom and δ18Odiatom) were performed on diatomrich laminated sediments of Lake Chungará (Andean Altiplano, northern Chile) deposited during the Lateglacial and Early Holocene (12,400e8300 cal years BP) to reconstruct climate change and environmental response across this major climate transition. The δ13Cdiatom data show both centennial-tomillennial scale changes related to fluctuations in lake productivity and CO2 concentration in the lake...

  19. Miscanti-1: Human occupation during the arid Mid-Holocene event in the high-altitude lakes of the Atacama Desert, South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Núñez, Lautaro; Loyola, Rodrigo; Cartajena, Isabel; López, Patricio; Santander, Boris; Maldonado, Antonio; de Souza, Patricio; Carrasco, Carlos

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents an interdisciplinary study of the Miscanti-1 archaeological site, located in the Holocene terrace deposits accumulated on the eastern margin of Miscanti Lake (4120 m.a.s.l.), northern Chile (23.7° S, 67.7° W). The human response to environmental and climatic variability in the Mid-Holocene (9500-4500 cal yr BP) is discussed through the zooarchaeological, lithic and paleoenvironmental records. We propose that, due to the increased aridity of the period, Miscanti Lake became a brackish paleowetland that attracted discrete groups of hunter-gatherers from lower elevation Andean areas. In contrast with the high frequency of human occupations known for the humid Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene (12600-9500 yr cal BP), the Miscanti-1 site is one of the few occupations recorded in the Atacama Highlands during the Mid-Holocene period. Data analysis suggests logistic and short-term campsite use for hunting the wild camelids that were attracted by the wetlands and fresh water (8100-8300 yr cal BP). In contrast to previous proposals for this period, we propose that access to high altitude environments did not cease, but was made possible by a shift to highly scheduled mobility and a specialized bifacial technology. Finally, the temporal and spatial links of Miscanti-1 are discussed in a regional context.

  20. Effective population size dynamics reveal impacts of historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressure in African elephants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okello, J B A; Wittemyer, G; Rasmussen, H B; Arctander, P; Nyakaana, S; Douglas-Hamilton, I; Siegismund, H R

    2008-09-01

    Two hundred years of elephant hunting for ivory, peaking in 1970-1980s, caused local extirpations and massive population declines across Africa. The resulting genetic impacts on surviving populations have not been studied, despite the importance of understanding the evolutionary repercussions of such human-mediated events on this keystone species. Using Bayesian coalescent-based genetic methods to evaluate time-specific changes in effective population size, we analysed genetic variation in 20 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci from 400 elephants inhabiting the greater Samburu-Laikipia region of northern Kenya. This area experienced a decline of between 80% and 90% in the last few decades when ivory harvesting was rampant. The most significant change in effective population size, however, occurred approximately 2500 years ago during a mid-Holocene period of climatic drying in tropical Africa. Contrary to expectations, detailed analyses of four contemporary age-based cohorts showed that the peak poaching epidemic in the 1970s caused detectable temporary genetic impacts, with genetic diversity rebounding as juveniles surviving the poaching era became reproductively mature. This study demonstrates the importance of climatic history in shaping the distribution and genetic history of a keystone species and highlights the utility of coalescent-based demographic approaches in unravelling ancestral demographic events despite a lack of ancient samples. Unique insights into the genetic signature of mid-Holocene climatic change in Africa and effects of recent poaching pressure on elephants are discussed.

  1. Latest Holocene Climate Variability revealed by a high-resolution multiple Proxy Record off Lisbon (Portugal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrantes, F.; Lebreiro, S.; Ferreira, A.; Gil, I.; Jonsdottir, H.; Rodrigues, T.; Kissel, C.; Grimalt, J.

    2003-04-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is known to have a major influence on the wintertime climate of the Atlantic basin and surrounding countries, determining precipitation and wind conditions at mid-latitudes. A comparison of Hurrel's NAO index to the mean winter (January-March) discharge of the Iberian Tagus River reveals a good negative correlation to negative NAO, while the years of largest upwelling anomalies, as referred in the literature, appear to be in good agreement with positive NAO. On this basis, a better understanding of the long-term variability of the NAO and Atlantic climate variability can be gained from high-resolution climate records from the Lisbon area. Climate variability of the last 2,000 years is assessed through a multiple proxy study of sedimentary sequences recovered from the Tagus prodelta deposition center, off Lisbon (Western Iberia). Physical properties, XRF and magnetic properties from core logging, grain size, δ18O, TOC, CaCO3, total alkenones, n-alkanes, alkenone SST, diatoms, benthic and planktonic foraminiferal assemblage compositions and fluxes are the proxies employed. The age model for site D13902 is based on AMS C-14 dates from mollusc and planktonic foraminifera shells, the reservoir correction for which was obtained by dating 3 pre-bomb, mollusc shells from the study area. Preliminary results indicate a Little Ice Age (LIA - 1300 - 1600 AD) alkenone derived SSTs around 15 degC followed by a sharp and rapid increase towards 19 degC. In spite the strong variability observed for most records, this low temperature interval is marked by a general increase in organic carbon, total alkenone concentration, diatom and foraminiferal abundances, as well as an increase in the sediment fine fraction and XRF determined Fe content, pointing to important river input and higher productivity. The Medieval Warm Period (1080 - 1300 AD) is characterized by 17-18 degC SSTs, increased mean grain size, but lower magnetic susceptibility and Fe

  2. Tropical climate and vegetation cover during Heinrich event 1: Simulations with coupled climate vegetation models

    OpenAIRE

    Handiani, Dian Noor

    2012-01-01

    This study focuses on the climate and vegetation responses to abrupt climate change in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial period. Two abrupt climate events are explored: the abrupt cooling of the Heinrich event 1 (HE1), followed by the abrupt warming of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial (BA). These two events are simulated by perturbing the freshwater balance of the Atlantic Ocean, with the intention of altering the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and also of in...

  3. Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A

    2017-06-19

    Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events

  4. Holocene climate and environmental change in the Palliser Triangle: a geoscientific context for evaluating the impacts of climate change on the southern Canadian prairies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemmen, D. S.; Vance, R. E. [eds.

    1999-07-01

    The Palliser Triangle is the driest portion of the Canadian Prairies, and one of the most climatically sensitive regions in Canada. As proof of that, it has suffered severe droughts in the 1920s, 1930s and the 1980s. General climatic models predict that future global warming will be most pronounced in northern regions and continental interiors, including the Great Plains of North America. Evidence of warming is already present in the regional climate record, suggesting that the Palliser Triangle is likely to become even more arid, and drought frequency may increase. This volume contains 18 papers related to major objectives of a project involving the use of the unique paleoenvironmental records available in the Palliser Triangle to assess the impacts of future climate change. Two major objectives of the project are of particular focus: the reconstruction of the Holocene (post-glacial) climatic and hydrological changes, and the evaluation of the relationship between climate and landscape processes. Each paper is capable of standing on its own as a contribution to a specific geoscience discipline; by bringing them together in one regionally focused volume, the editors intend to highlight the need for interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary approaches to the study of global climate change issues. The first paper provides a broad summary of the major results, followed by nine papers devoted to records of past climate and hydrological change documented in paleolimnological and hydrogeological studies. The remaining eight papers focus on geomorphic processes in the Palliser Triangle, and on explanations of how these processes respond to climate forcing. Since each contribution can stand its own, each paper has its own abstract in English and French and its own bibliography. There is an author index for the volume as whole.

  5. Origin and dynamics of the northern South American coastal savanna belt during the Holocene - the role of climate, sea-level, fire and humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh, Kamaleddin; Cohen, Marcelo; Behling, Hermann

    2015-08-01

    Presence of a coastal savanna belt expanding from British Guiana to northeastern Brazil cannot be explained by present-day climate. Using pollen and charcoal analyses on an 11.6 k old sediment core from a coastal depression in the savanna belt near the mouth of the Amazon River we investigated the paleoenvironmental history to shed light on this question. Results indicate that small areas of savanna accompanied by a forest type composed primarily by the genus Micropholis (Sapotaceae) that has no modern analog existed at the beginning of the Holocene. After 11,200 cal yr BP, savanna accompanied by few trees replaced the forest. In depressions swamp forest developed and by ca 10,000 cal yr BP replaced by Mauritia swamps. Between 8500 and 5600 cal yr BP gallery forest (composed mainly of Euphorbiaceae) and swamp forest succeeded the treeless savanna. The modern vegetation with alternating gallery forest and savanna developed after 5600 cal yr BP. We suggest that the early Holocene no-analog forest is a relict of previously more extensive forest under cooler and moister Lateglacial conditions. The early Holocene savanna expansion indicates a drier phase probably related to the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) towards its northernmost position. The mid-Holocene forest expansion is probably a result of the combined influence of equatorwards shift of ITCZ joining the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). The ecosystem variability during the last 5600 cal yr BP, formed perhaps under influence of intensified ENSO condition. High charcoal concentrations, especially during the early Holocene, indicate that natural and/or anthropogenic fires may have maintained the savanna. However, our results propose that climate change is the main driving factor for the formation of the coastal savanna in this region. Our results also show that the early Holocene sea level rise established mangroves near the study site until 7500 cal yr BP and promoted swamp formation in

  6. Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Flueckiger, J.; Knutti, R.; White, J.W.C.; Renssen, H.

    2008-01-01

    Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model

  7. Late Glacial and Early Holocene Climatic Changes Based on a Multiproxy Lacustrine Sediment Record from Northeast Siberia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kokorowski, H D; Anderson, P M; Sletten, R S; Lozhkin, A V; Brown, T A

    2008-05-20

    Palynological (species assemblage, pollen accumulation rate), geochemical (carbon to nitrogen ratios, organic carbon and biogenic silica content), and sedimentological (particle size, magnetic susceptibility) data combined with improved chronology and greater sampling resolution from a new core from Elikchan 4 Lake provide a stronger basis for defining paleoenvironmental changes than was previously possible. Persistence of herb-dominated tundra, slow expansion of Betula and Alnus shrubs, and low percentages of organic carbon and biogenic silica suggest that the Late-Glacial transition (ca. 16,000-11,000 cal. yr BP) was a period of gradual rather than abrupt vegetation and climatic change. Consistency of all Late-Glacial data indicates no Younger Dryas climatic oscillation. A dramatic peak in pollen accumulation rates (ca. 11,000-9800 cal. yr BP) suggests a possible summer temperature optimum, but finer grain-sizes, low magnetic susceptibility, and greater organic carbon and biogenic silica, while showing significant warming at ca. 11,000 cal. yr BP, offer no evidence of a Holocene thermal maximum. When compared to trends in other paleo-records, the new Elikchan data underscore the apparent spatial complexity of climatic responses in Northeast Siberia to global forcings between ca. 16,000-9000 cal. yr BP.

  8. Climate Change : Behavioral Responses from Extreme Events and Delayed Damages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghidoni, Riccardo; Calzolari, G.; Casari, Marco

    2017-01-01

    Understanding how to sustain cooperation in the climate change global dilemma is crucial to mitigate its harmful consequences. Damages from climate change typically occurs after long delays and can take the form of more frequent realizations of extreme and random events. These features generate a

  9. Climate change : Behavioral responses from extreme events and delayed damages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghidoni, Riccardo; Calzolari, Giacomo; Casari, Marco

    2017-01-01

    Understanding how to sustain cooperation in the climate change global dilemma is crucial to mitigate its harmful consequences. Damages from climate change typically occur after long delays and can take the form of more frequent realizations of extreme and random events. These features generate a

  10. Coping with extreme climate events: Institutional flocking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koppen, van C.S.A.; Mol, A.P.J.; Tatenhove, van J.P.M.

    2010-01-01

    The article explores the governance structures that would be needed to cope with extreme and unpredictable climate change. The impacts on the Netherlands of a Gulf Stream collapse in the Northern Atlantic are taken as a case. This hypothetical situation of serious risks and high uncertainties

  11. Climate change between the mid and late Holocene in northern high latitudes – Part 2: Model-data comparisons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Holmgren

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The climate response over northern high latitudes to the mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated in three types of PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project simulations with different complexity of the modelled climate system. By first undertaking model-data comparison, an objective selection method has been applied to evaluate the capability of the climate models to reproduce the spatial response pattern seen in proxy data. The possible feedback mechanisms behind the climate response have been explored based on the selected model simulations. Subsequent model-model comparisons indicate the importance of including the different physical feedbacks in the climate models. The comparisons between the proxy-based reconstructions and the best fit selected simulations show that over the northern high latitudes, summer temperature change follows closely the insolation change and shows a common feature with strong warming over land and relatively weak warming over ocean at 6 ka compared to 0 ka. Furthermore, the sea-ice-albedo positive feedback enhances this response. The reconstructions of temperature show a stronger response to enhanced insolation in the annual mean temperature than winter and summer temperature. This is verified in the model simulations and the behaviour is attributed to the larger contribution from the large response in autumn. Despite a smaller insolation during winter at 6 ka, a pronounced warming centre is found over Barents Sea in winter in the simulations, which is also supported by the nearby northern Eurasian continental and Fennoscandian reconstructions. This indicates that in the Arctic region, the response of the ocean and the sea ice to the enhanced summer insolation is more important for the winter temperature than the synchronous decrease of the insolation.

  12. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  13. A late Holocene record of arid events from the Cuzco region, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chepstow-Lusty, Alex; Frogley, Michael R.; Bauer, Brian S.; Bush, Mark. B.; Tupayachi Herrera, Alfredo

    2003-09-01

    The small recently infilled lake basin of Marcacocha (13°13S, 72°12W, 3355 m) in the Cuzco region of Peru has a morphology and location that renders it extremely sensitive to environmental change. A record of vegetation, human impact and climatic change during the past 4200 yr has been obtained from a highly organic core taken from the centre of the basin. Sustained arid episodes that affected the Peruvian Andes may be detectable using the proxy indicator of sedge (Cyperaceae) pollen abundances. As the lake-level was lowered during sustained drier conditions, the local catchment was colonised by Cyperaceae, whereas during lake floods, they retreated or were submerged and pollen production was correspondingly reduced. Drier episodes during prehistoric times occurred around 900 bc, 500 bc, ad 100 and ad 550, with a longer dry episode occurring from ad 900 to 1800. Evidence from the independently derived Quelccaya ice-core record and the archaeological chronology for the Cuzco region appears to support the climatic inferences derived from the sedge data. Many of these aridity episodes appear to correspond with important cultural changes in the Cuzco region and elsewhere in the Central Andes. Copyright

  14. Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayewski, Paul Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The demonstration using Greenland ice cores that abrupt shifts in climate, Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, existed during the last glacial period has had a transformational impact on our understanding of climate change in the naturally forced world. The demonstration that D-O events are globally distributed and that they operated during previous glacial periods has led to extensive research into the relative hemispheric timing and causes of these events. The emergence of civilization during our current interglacial, the Holocene, has been attributed to the "relative climate quiescence" of this period relative to the massive, abrupt shifts in climate that characterized glacial periods in the form of D-O events. But, everything is relative and climate change is no exception. The demise of past civilizations, (eg., Mesopatamian, Mayan and Norse) is integrally tied to abrupt climate change (ACC) events operating at regional scales. Regionally to globally distributed ACC events have punctuated the Holocene and extreme events have always posed significant challenges to humans and ecosystems. Current warming of the Arctic, in terms of length of the summer season, is as abrupt and massive, albeit not as extensive, as the transition from the last major D-O event, the Younger Dryas into the Holocene (Mayewski et al., 2013). Tropospheric source greenhouse gas rise and ozone depletion in the stratosphere over Antarctica are triggers for the modern advent of human emission instigated ACCs. Arctic warming and Antarctic ozone depletion have resulted in significance changes to the atmospheric circulation systems that transport heat, moisture, and pollutants in both hemispheres. Climate models offer a critical tool for assessing trends, but they cannot as yet predict ACC events, as evidenced by the inability of these models to predict the rapid onset of Arctic warming and resulting changes in atmospheric circulation; and in the model vs past analog differences in projections for

  15. Holocene Vegetation Succession and Response to Climate Change on the South Bank of the Heilongjiang-Amur River, Mohe County, Northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Zhao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Pollen samples from peat sediments on the south bank of the Heilongjiang River in northern Northeast China (NE China were analyzed to reconstruct the historical response of vegetation to climate change since 7800 cal yr BP. Vegetation was found to have experienced five successions from cold-temperate mixed coniferous and broadleaved forest to forest-steppe, steppe-woodland, steppe, and finally meadow-woodland. From 7800 to 7300 cal yr BP, the study area was warmer than present, and Betula, Larix, and Picea-dominated mixed coniferous and broadleaved forests thrived. Two cooling events at 7300 cal yr BP and 4500 cal yr BP led to a decrease in Betula and other broadleaved forests, whereas herbs of Poaceae expanded, leading to forest-steppe and then steppe-woodland environments. After 2500 cal yr BP, reduced temperatures and a decrease in evaporation rates are likely to have resulted in permafrost expansion and surface ponding, with meadow and isolated coniferous forests developing a resistance to the cold-wet environment. The Holocene warm period in NE China (7800–7300 cal yr BP could have resulted in a strengthening of precipitation in northernmost NE China and encouraged the development of broadleaved forests.

  16. Salinity-induced stratification and the onset of hypoxia during the Holocene Thermal Maximum and the Medieval Climate Anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadomanolaki, Nina; Dijkstra, Nikki; van Helmond, Niels; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Hagens, Mathilde; Kotthoff, Ulrich; Slomp, Caroline

    2016-04-01

    During the past ~8000 years the Baltic Sea has experienced three distinct intervals of hypoxia, of which the last one is still ongoing. These intervals are characterized by enhanced sedimentary organic matter burial and enrichment of redox-sensitive metals, such as molybdenum and iron. The first two of these intervals occurred during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), two phases with high temperatures and changed precipitation patterns. Studies focussing on the Holocene sedimentary record of the Baltic Sea aim at clarifying the causes of the initiation, evolution and termination of these hypoxic intervals, as well as their consequences. This information could help to potentially aid in finding solutions for the mitigation of present-day hypoxia in the Baltic Sea. The factors contributing to hypoxia development during the HTM and MCA are still debated. Here we present data from a core retrieved during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 347 in the Landsort Deep basin, the deepest basin of the Baltic Sea at 463m water depth. Sediments were analysed at a high resolution using inorganic geochemical and (mainly marine) palynological proxies. Dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages and total elemental compositions provide clues on the role of salinity in enhancing stratification, ultimately causing hypoxia. During the onset of the HTM changes in salinity, as indicated by the palynology, closely follow changes in sedimentary organic carbon burial and trace metal concentrations. This suggests that stratification was an important cause of hypoxia during the HTM. In contrast, the palynology suggests that reduced stratification did not contribute to re-oxygenation during the termination of the HTM. We did not observe major changes in the palynology throughout the hypoxic interval of the MCA. Our results thus suggest that changes in salinity did not cause the onset and termination of hypoxia during the MCA.

  17. Holocene environmental and parasequence development of the St. Jones Estuary, Delaware (USA): Foraminiferal proxies of natural climatic and anthropogenic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leorri, E.; Martin, R.; McLaughlin, P.

    2006-01-01

    The benthic foraminiferal record of marshes located along western Delaware Bay (St. Jones Estuary, USA) reflects the response of estuaries to sea-level and paleoclimate change during the Holocene. System tracts are recognized and within them parasequences based on sedimentological and foraminiferal assemblages identification. The parasequences defined by foraminiferal assemblages appear correlative with rapid Holocene climate changes that are of worldwide significance: 6000-5000, 4200-3800, 3500-2500, 1200-1000, and 600??cal years BP. Following postglacial sea-level rise, modern subestuaries and marshes in the region began to develop between 6000 and 4000??years BP, depending on their proximity to the mouth of Delaware Bay and coastal geomorphology. Initial sediments were fluvial in origin, with freshwater marshes established around 4000??years BP. The subsequent sea-level transgression occurred sufficiently slowly that freshwater marshes alternated with salt marshes at the same sites to around 3000??years BP. Locally another two transgressions are identified at 1800 and 1000??years BP respectively. Marine influence increased in the estuaries until 600??years BP (Little Ice Age), when regression occurred. Sea-level began to rise again during the mid-19th Century at the end of the Little Ice Age, when marshes became established. The presence of a sand lens in the upper and middle estuary and the reduction in the number of tests in the top samples in cores from the same area also suggest an anthropogenic influence. The estuary infill resulted in a sharp transgressive sequence, represented by salt marsh foraminiferal assemblages in the upper part of the cores. The increase in marsh foraminifera in both areas suggests an increase in marine influence that might be due to the transgression beginning at the end of the Little Ice Age about 150-180??years ago coupled with anthropogenic straightening of the channel in 1913. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stott, Peter A; Christidis, Nikolaos; Otto, Friederike E L; Sun, Ying; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Vautard, Robert; von Storch, Hans; Walton, Peter; Yiou, Pascal; Zwiers, Francis W

    2016-01-01

    Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

  19. Holocene climate variability in the winter rainfall zone of South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Weldeab

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We established a multi-proxy time series comprising analyses of major elements in bulk sediments, Sr and Nd isotopes, grain size of terrigenous fraction, and δ18O and δ13C in tests of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral from a marine sediment sequence recovered off the Orange River. The records reveal coherent patterns of variability that reflect changes in wind strength, precipitation over the river catchments, and upwelling of cold and nutrient-rich coastal waters off western South Africa. The wettest episode of the Holocene in the winter rainfall zone (WRZ of South Africa occurred during the "Little Ice Age" (700–100 cal years BP most likely in response to a northward shift of the austral westerlies. Wet phases and strengthened coastal water upwellings are companied by a decrease of Agulhas water leakage into the South Atlantic and a reduced dust incursion over Antarctica, as indicated in previous studies. A continuous aridification trend in the WRZ and a weakening of the southern Benguela Upwelling System (BUS between 9000 and 5500 cal years BP parallel with increase of dust deposition over Antarctica and an enhanced leakage of warm Agulhas water into the eastern South Atlantic. The temporal relationship between precipitation changes in the WRZ, the thermal state of the coastal surface water, and leakage of warm water in the South Atlantic, and variation of dust incursion over Antarctica suggests a causal link that most likely was related to latitudinal shifts of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies. Our results of the mid-Holocene time interval may serve as an analogue to a possible long-term consequence of the current and future southward shift of the westerlies. Furthermore, warming of the coastal surface water as a result of warm Agulhas water incursion into the southern BUS may affect coastal fog formation.

  20. Distribution of mountain wetlands and their response to Holocene climate change in the Hachimantai Volcanic Groups, northeastern Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasaki, N.; Sugai, T.

    2017-12-01

    Mountain wetlands, natural peatlands or lakes, with narrow catchment areas need abundant water supply and topography retaining water because of unstable water condition. This study examines wetland distribution with a focus on topography and snow accumulation, and discuss wetland evolution responding to Holocene climate change in the Hachimantai Volcanic Group, northeastern Japan, where the East Asian winter monsoon brings heavier snow and where has many wetlands of varied origin: crater lakes and wetlands in nivation hollows on original volcanic surfaces, and wetlands in depressions formed by landslides. We identified and classified wetlands using aerial photographs and 5-m and 10-m digital elevation models. Wetlands on the original volcanic surfaces tend to be concentrated under the small scarps with much snow or on saddles of the mountain ridge where snowmelt from surrounding slopes maintains a moist environment. More lake type wetlands are formed in the saddle than in the snowdrifts. That may represent that the saddles can correct more recharge water and may be a more suitable topographic condition for wetland formation and endurance. On the contrary, wetlands on landslides lie at the foot of the scarps where spring water can be abundantly supplied, regardless of snow accumulation. We used lithological analysis, 14C dating, tephra age data, and carbon contents of wetland cores to compare the evolution of wetlands, one (the Oyachi wetland) within a huge landslide and three (the Appi Highland wetlands) outside of a landslide area. We suggest that the evolution of the wetland in the landslide is primarily influenced by landslide movements and stream dissection rather than climate change. In the Appi Highland wetlands, peatlands appeared much later and at the almost same time in the Medieval Warm Period. We suggest that the development of mountain wetlands outside of landslide areas is primarily related to climate changes. Responsiveness of mountain wetlands to

  1. Population differentiation in the context of Holocene climate change for a migratory marine species, the southern elephant seal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corrigan, L J; Fabiani, A; Chauke, L F; McMahon, C R; de Bruyn, M; Bester, M N; Bastos, A; Campagna, C; Muelbert, M M C; Hoelzel, A R

    2016-09-01

    Understanding observed patterns of connectivity requires an understanding of the evolutionary processes that determine genetic structure among populations, with the most common models being associated with isolation by distance, allopatry or vicariance. Pinnipeds are annual breeders with the capacity for extensive range overlap during seasonal migrations, establishing the potential for the evolution of isolation by distance. Here, we assess the pattern of differentiation among six breeding colonies of the southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, based on mtDNA and 15 neutral microsatellite DNA markers, and consider measures of their demography and connectivity. We show that all breeding colonies are genetically divergent and that connectivity in this highly mobile pinniped is not strongly associated with geographic distance, but more likely linked to Holocene climate change and demographic processes. Estimates of divergence times between populations were all after the last glacial maximum, and there was evidence for directional migration in a clockwise pattern (with the prevailing current) around the Antarctic. We discuss the mechanisms by which climate change may have contributed to the contemporary genetic structure of southern elephant seal populations and the broader implications. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  2. Holocene glacier and climate variations in Vestfirðir, Iceland, from the modeling of Drangajökull ice cap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Leif S.; Flowers, Gwenn E.; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna Th; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford H.; Harning, David J.; Thorsteinsson, Thorsteinn; Magnússon, Eyjólfur; Pálsson, Finnur

    2018-06-01

    Drangajökull is a maritime ice cap located in northwest (Vestfirðir) Iceland. Drangajökull's evolution is therefore closely linked to atmospheric and ocean variability. In order to better constrain the Holocene climate and glacier history of Vestfirðir we model the past evolution of Drangajökull ice cap. Simulations from 10 ka to present are forced by general circulation model output, ice-core-based temperature reconstructions, and sea-surface temperature reconstructions. Based on these 10-thousand year simulations, Drangajökull did not persist through the Holocene. We estimate that air temperatures were 2.5-3.0 °C higher during the Holocene Thermal Maximum than the local 1960-1990 average. Simulations support Drangajökull's late Holocene inception between 2 and 1 ka, though intermittent ice likely occupied cirques as early as 2.6 ka. Drangajökull is primarily a Little Ice Age ice cap: it expanded between 1300 and 1750 CE, with the most rapid growth occurring between 1600 and 1750 CE. The maximum Holocene extent of Drangajökull occurred between 1700 and 1925 CE, despite the lowest late Holocene temperatures, occurring between 1650 and 1720 CE. Between 1700 and 1925 CE temperatures were likely 0.6-0.8 °C lower than the 1950-2015 reference temperature. The modern equilibrium line altitude (ELA) is bracketed by topographic thresholds: a 1 °C temperature increase from the modern ELA would eliminate the ice cap's accumulation area, while a reduction of 0.5 °C would lead to the rapid expansion of the ice cap across Vestfirðir. The proximity of Drangajökull to topographic thresholds may explain its late inception and rapid expansion during the Little Ice Age.

  3. Modern pollen–climate relationships in north Xinjiang, northwestern China : Implications for pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Furong; Zhao, Yan; Gaillard, Marie José; Li, Huan; Sun, Jinghui; Xu, Qinghai

    2017-01-01

    Fossil pollen records are widely used to reconstruct past climate. Such reconstructions require that the relationships between pollen assemblages, vegetation, and climate are well understood. These can be studied in present circumstances given we assume that modern vegetation and climate are

  4. Coring of Karakel’ Lake sediments (Teberda River valley and prospects for reconstruction of glaciation and Holocene climate history in the Caucasus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. N. Solomina

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Lacustrine sediments represent an important data source for glacial and palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Having a number of certain advantages, they can be successfully used as a means of specification of glacier situation and age of moraine deposits, as well as a basis for detailed climatic models of the Holocene. The article focuses on the coring of sediments of Lake Kakakel (Western Caucasus that has its goal to clarify the Holocene climatic history for the region, providing the sampling methods, lithologic description of the sediment core, obtained radiocarbon dating and the element composition of the sediments. The primary outlook over the results of coring of the sediments of the Lake Karakyol helped to reconsider the conventional opinion on the glacial fluctuations in the valley of Teberda and to assume the future possibility for high-definition palaeoclimatic reconstruction for Western Caucasus.

  5. Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene climate evolution controlled by sea-level change, Leeuwin Current, and Australian Monsoon in the Northwestern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishiwa, T.; Yokoyama, Y.; McHugh, C.; Reuning, L.; Gallagher, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    The transition from cold to warm conditions during the last deglaciation influenced climate variability in the Indian Ocean and Pacific as a result of submerge of continental shelf and variations in the Indonesian Throughflow and Australian Monsoon. The shallow continental shelf (Program Expedition 356 Indonesian Throughflow drilled in the northwestern Australian shallow continental shelf and recovered an interval from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene in Site U1461. Radiocarbon dating on macrofossils, foraminifera, and bulk organic matter provided a precise age-depth model, leading to high-resolved paleoclimate reconstruction. X-ray elemental analysis results are interpreted as an indicator of sedimentary environmental changes. The upper 20-m part of Site U1461 apparently records the climate transition from the LGM to Holocene in the northwestern Australia, which could be associated with sea-level change, Leeuwin Current activity, and the Australian Monsoon.

  6. Late Pleistocene and Holocene meltwater events in the western Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poore, R.Z.; Osterman, L.; Curry, W.B.; Phillips, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    Accelerator mass spectrometer 14C dated stable isotope data from Neogloboquadrina pachyerma in cores raised from the Mendeleyev Ridge and slope provide evidence for significant influx of meltwater to the western Arctic Ocean during the early part of marine oxygen isotope stage 1 (OIS 1) and during several intervals within OIS 3. The strongest OIS 3 meltwater event occurred before ca. 45 ka (conventional radiocarbon age) and was probably related to the deglaciation at the beginning of OIS 3. Major meltwater input to the western Arctic Ocean during the last deglaciation coincides closely with the maximum rate of global sea-level rise as determined from the Barbados sea-level record, demonstrating a strong link between the global record and changes in the central Arctic Ocean. OIS 2, which includes the last glacial maximum, is very condensed or absent in the cores. Abundance and ??13C values for N. pachyderma in the middle part of OIS 3 are similar to modern values, indicating high productivity and seasonal ice-free areas along the Arctic margin at that time. These records indicate that the Arctic Ocean was a source of heat and moisture to the northern polar atmosphere during parts of OIS 3.

  7. Holocene neoglacial events in the Bransfield Strait (Antarctica. Palaeocenographic and paleoclimatic significance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Ángeles Bárcena

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Geochemical analysis, micropalaeontological analysis and radiometric dating techniques were performed on four gravity cores, G-1, G-2, A-3 and A-6, recovered during the BIO Hesperides expeditions GEBRA-93 and FRUELA-96 from the Bransfield Strait (Antarctica. Moreover, in order to improve the sedimentation rate control we tentatively relate abundance variations in the sea-ice taxa group (SITG to air temperature estimations based on Deuterium contents in Vostok ice-core. The results of diatom analyses were related to the sequence of neoglacial events that have occurred over the last three millennia. For these periods, a restricted communication between the Weddell, Bransfield and Bellingshausen seas has been proposed. The abundance patterns of diatom valves, resting spores (RS of the diatom Chaetoceros and opal content agree with the high productivity values previously reported for the area. The significant reduction Chaetoceros RS towards the present is interpreted as a reduction in surface productivity. Trend differences between Chaetoceros RS and TOC contents are explained in terms of organic matter preservation. Diatom communities from the Bransfield Strait did not play an important role in the global CO2 cycle during cold periods. Bio- and geochemical changes have overprinted high frequency cyclicity at about 200-300 yr, which might be related to the 200-yr solar cycle.

  8. Holocene climate change and the evidence for solar and other forcings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beer, J.; van Geel, B.; Battarbee, R.W.; Binney, H.A.

    2008-01-01

    Future climate change may have considerable effects on the hydrologic cycle and temperature, with significant consequences for sea level, food production, world economy, health, and biodiversity. How and why does the natural climate system vary on decadal to millennial time-scales? Do we

  9. The diatom flora of Lake Kinneret (Israel) - Paleolimnological evidence for Holocene climate change and human impact in the southeastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vossel, Hannah; Reed, Jane M.; Litt, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    The Mediterranean basin is a region of highly complex topography and climatic variability, such that our understanding of the past environmental variability is still limited. Diatoms (single-celled siliceous algae, Bacillariophyceae) are abundant, diverse and sensitive to a wide range of environmental parameters. They are often well preserved in lake sediment records, and have well-recognised potential to generate high-quality paleolimnological data. Diatoms remain one of the least-exploited proxies in Mediterranean palaeoclimate research. Here, we present results of diatom analysis of an 18 m sediment core from Lake Kinneret (Israel) as part of a multi-proxy study of Holocene climate change and human impact in the Levant (http://www.sfb806.uni-koeln.de). Results are compared with other proxy data including pollen, and with output data from regional climate modelling, to strengthen interpretation of environmental change in the southeastern Mediterranean. The results show remarkable shifts in the diatom flora over the last ca. 8,000 years. Preliminary investigations show that 98% of the diatom taxa can be classified as oligohalobous-indifferent and as alkaliphilous, as is typical of freshwater, alkaline lakes of open hydrology in limestone, karst-dominated catchments. Changes in the diatom data over time can be interpreted mainly in terms of productivity shifts, with a clear trend from oligotrophic at the base to hypereutrophic in the modern lake. The eutrophication trend accelerates after ca. 3,000 cal. yrs. BP, indicating the influence of increased human activity in the catchment, identified previously by analysis of the vegetational history (Schiebel, 2013). The analysis of the composition of the diatom flora also provides some evidence for lake-level fluctuations, as a proxy for shifts in moisture availability. Low lake-level stands are characterized by low diatom concentration and increased relative abundance of littoral taxa. High lake-level stands are marked

  10. Holocene climate variability in arid Central Asia as revealed from high-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analyses of laminated sediments from Lake Chatyr Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauterbach, S.; Plessen, B.; Dulski, P.; Mingram, J.; Prasad, S.

    2013-12-01

    A pronounced trend from a predominantly wet climate during the early Holocene towards significantly drier conditions since the mid-Holocene, mainly attributed to the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), is documented in numerous palaeoclimate records from the monsoon-influenced parts of Asia, e.g. the Tibetan Plateau and north- and southeastern China. In contrast, climate in the adjacent regions of mid-latitude arid Central Asia, located north and northwest of the Tibetan Plateau, is supposed to have been characterized by pronounced dry conditions during the early Holocene, wet conditions during the mid-Holocene and a rather moderate drying during the late Holocene, which is mainly attributed to the complex interplay between the mid-latitude Westerlies and the ASM. However, although mid-latitude Central Asia thus might represent a key region for the understanding of teleconnections between the ASM system and the Westerlies, knowledge about past climate development in this region is still ambiguous due to the limited number of high-resolution palaeoclimate records. Hence, new well-dated and highly resolved palaeoclimate records from this region are expected to provide important information about spatio-temporal changes in the regional interplay between Westerlies and ASM and thus aid the understanding of global climate teleconnections. As a part of the project CADY (Central Asian Climate Dynamics), aiming at reconstructing past climatic and hydrological variability in Central Asia, a sediment core of about 6.25 m length has been recovered from alpine Lake Chatyr Kol (40°36' N, 75°14' E, 3530 m a. s. l., surface area ~170 km2, maximum depth ~20 m), located in the Central Tian Shan of Kyrgyzstan. Sediment microfacies analysis on large-scale petrographic thin sections reveals continuously sub-mm scale laminated sediments throughout the record except for the uppermost ca. 60 cm. Microsedimentological characterization of these laminae, which are most probably

  11. Late Holocene environmental reconstructions and their implications on flood events, typhoon, and agricultural activities in NE Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.-C.; Behling, H.; Lee, T.-Q.; Li, H.-C.; Huh, C.-A.; Shiau, L.-J.; Chang, Y.-P.

    2014-10-01

    We reconstructed paleoenvironmental changes from a sediment archive of a lake in the floodplain of the Ilan Plain of NE Taiwan on multi-decadal resolution for the last ca. 1900 years. On the basis of pollen and diatom records, we evaluated past floods, typhoons, and agricultural activities in this area which are sensitive to the hydrological conditions in the western Pacific. Considering the high sedimentation rates with low microfossil preservations in our sedimentary record, multiple flood events were. identified during the period AD 100-1400. During the Little Ice Age phase 1 (LIA 1 - AD 1400-1620), the abundant occurrences of wetland plant (Cyperaceae) and diatom frustules imply less flood events under stable climate conditions in this period. Between AD 500 and 700 and the Little Ice Age phase 2 (LIA 2 - AD 1630-1850), the frequent typhoons were inferred by coarse sediments and planktonic diatoms, which represented more dynamical climate conditions than in the LIA 1. By comparing our results with the reconstructed changes in tropical hydrological conditions, we suggested that the local hydrology in NE Taiwan is strongly influenced by typhoon-triggered heavy rainfalls, which could be influenced by the variation of global temperature, the expansion of the Pacific warm pool, and the intensification of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.

  12. Modelling extreme climatic events in Guadalquivir Estuary ( Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Juan; Moreno-Navas, Juan; Pulido, Antoine; García-Lafuente, Juan; Calero Quesada, Maria C.; García, Rodrigo

    2017-04-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves and severe storms are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their socio-ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in estuarine ecosystems. The Guadalquivir Estuary has been anthropologically modified several times, the original salt marshes have been transformed to grow rice and cotton and approximately one-fourth of the total surface of the estuary is now part of two protected areas, one of them is a UNESCO, MAB Biosphere Reserve. The climatic events are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades and a further understanding how these climatic disturbances drive abrupt changes in the Guadalquivir estuary is needed. A barotropic model has been developed to study how severe storm events affects the estuary by conducting paired control and climate-events simulations. The changes in the local wind and atmospheric pressure conditions in the estuary have been studied in detail and several scenarios are obtained by running the model under control and real storm conditions. The model output has been validated with in situ water elevation and good agreement between modelled and real measurements have been obtained. Our preliminary results show that the model demonstrated the capability describe of the tide-surge levels in the estuary, opening the possibility to study the interaction between climatic events and the port operations and food production activities. The barotropic hydrodynamic model provide spatially explicit information on the key variables governing the tide dynamics of estuarine areas under severe climatic scenarios . The numerical model will be a powerful tool in future climate change mitigation and adaptation programs in a complex socio-ecological system.

  13. Lake Sediment Records as an Indicator of Holocene Fluctuations of Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru and Regional Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroup, J. S.; Kelly, M. A.; Lowell, T. V.; Beal, S. A.; Smith, C. A.; Baranes, H. E.

    2012-12-01

    The past fluctuations of Quelccaya Ice Cap, (QIC; 13°S, 70°W, 5200 m asl) located in the southeastern Peruvian Andes, provide a record of tropical climate since the last glacial-interglacial transition. A detailed surficial geomorphic record of past glacial extents developed over the last several decades (e.g. Mercer and Palacios 1977; Buffen et al. 2009; Kelly et al. 2012 accepted) demonstrates that QIC is a dynamic glacial system. These records show that the ice cap was larger than present and retreating by ~11,500 yr BP, and smaller than present between ~7,000 and ~4,600 yr BP. The most recent advance occurred during the late Holocene (Little Ice Age;LIA), dated with 10Be surface exposure ages (510±90 yrs (n = 8)) (Stroup et al. in prep.). This overrode earlier deposits obscuring a complete Holocene record; we aim to address the gaps in glacial chronology using the sedimentary record archived in lakes. We retrieved two sets cores (8 and 5 m-long) from Laguna Challpacocha (13.91°S, 70.86°W, 5040 m asl), a lake that currently receives meltwater from QIC. Four radiocarbon ages from the cores suggest a continuous record dating to at least ~10,500 cal. yr BP. Variations in magnetic susceptibility, percent organic and inorganic carbon, bulk density, grayscale and X-ray fluorescence chemistry indicate changes in the amount of clastic sediment deposition. We interpret clastic sediments to have been deposited from ice cap meltwater, thus indicating more extensive ice. Clastic sediments compose the top of the core from 4 to 30 cm depth, below there is a sharp transition to organic sediments radiocarbon dated to (500±30 and 550±20 cal. yr BP). The radiocarbon ages are similar to the 10Be dated (LIA) glacial position. At least three other clastic units exist in the core; dating to ~2600-4300, ~4800-7300 and older then ~10,500 cal. yr BP based on a linear age model with four radiocarbon dates. We obtained two, ~4 m long, cores from Laguna Yanacocha (13.95°S,70.87

  14. Toward explaining the Holocene carbon dioxide and carbon isotope records: Results from transient ocean carbon cycle-climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menviel, L.; Joos, F.

    2012-03-01

    The Bern3D model was applied to quantify the mechanisms of carbon cycle changes during the Holocene (last 11,000 years). We rely on scenarios from the literature to prescribe the evolution of shallow water carbonate deposition and of land carbon inventory changes over the glacial termination (18,000 to 11,000 years ago) and the Holocene and modify these scenarios within uncertainties. Model results are consistent with Holocene records of atmospheric CO2 and δ13C as well as the spatiotemporal evolution of δ13C and carbonate ion concentration in the deep sea. Deposition of shallow water carbonate, carbonate compensation of land uptake during the glacial termination, land carbon uptake and release during the Holocene, and the response of the ocean-sediment system to marine changes during the termination contribute roughly equally to the reconstructed late Holocene pCO2 rise of 20 ppmv. The 5 ppmv early Holocene pCO2 decrease reflects terrestrial uptake largely compensated by carbonate deposition and ocean sediment responses. Additional small contributions arise from Holocene changes in sea surface temperature, ocean circulation, and export productivity. The Holocene pCO2 variations result from the subtle balance of forcings and processes acting on different timescales and partly in opposite direction as well as from memory effects associated with changes occurring during the termination. Different interglacial periods with different forcing histories are thus expected to yield different pCO2 evolutions as documented by ice cores.

  15. Environmental response to the cold climate event 8200 years ago as recorded at Hoejby Soe, Denmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rasmussen, Peter (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen (Denmark)); Ulfeldt Hede, M.; Noe-Nygaard, N. (Univ. of Copenhagen, Dept. of Geography and Geology, Copenhagen (Denmark)); Clarke, A.L. (APEM Manchester Lab., Stockport (United Kingdom)); Vinebrooke, R.D. (Univ. of Alberta, Dept. of Biological Science - Freshwater Biodiversity Lab., Edmonton (Canada))

    2008-07-15

    The need for accurate predictions of future environmental change under conditions of global warming has led to a great interest in the most pronounced climate change known from the Holocene: an abrupt cooling event around 8200 years before present (present = A.D. 1950), also known as the '8.2 ka cooling event' (ka = kilo-annum = 1000 years). This event has been recorded as a negative delta18OMICRON excursion in the central Greenland ice cores (lasting 160 years with the lowest temperature at 8150) and in a variety of other palaeoclimatic archives including lake sediments, ocean cores, speleothems, tree rings, and glacier oscillations from most of the Northern Hemisphere. In Greenland the maximum cooling was estimated to be 6 +- 2 deg. C while in southern Fennoscandia and the Baltic countries pollenbased quantitative temperature reconstructions indicate a maximum annual mean temperature decrease of around 1.5 deg. C. Today there is a general consensus that the primary cause of the cooling event was the final collapse of the Laurentide ice sheet near Hudson Bay and the associated sudden drainage of the proglacial Lake Agassiz into the North Atlantic Ocean around 8400 B.P. . This freshwater outflow, estimated to amount to c. 164,000 km3 of water, reduced the strength of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and thereby the heat transported to the North Atlantic region, resulting in an atmospheric cooling. The climatic consequences of this meltwater flood are assumed to be a good geological analogue for future climate-change scenarios, as a freshening of the North Atlantic is projected by almost all global-warming models and is also currently being registered in the region. In an ongoing project, the influence of the 8.2 ka cooling event on a Danish terrestrial and lake ecosystem is being investigated using a variety of biological and geochemical proxy data from a sediment core extracted from Hojby So, north-west Sjaelland. Here we present data on

  16. Roles of Sea Level and Climate Change in the Development of Holocene Deltaic Sequences in the Yellow Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Milliman, J. D.

    2002-12-01

    Both post-glacial sea-level and climatic changes are preserved in the the shallow, low gradient, sediment-dominated Yellow Sea. As a result of rapid flooding during melt-water pulse (MWP) 1A, 14.3-14.1 ka BP, sea level reached the southern edge of the North Yellow Sea (NYS), and after MWP-1B (11.6-11.4 ka BP) sea level entered the Bohai Sea. The first major Yellow River-derived deltaic deposit formed in the NYS during decelerated transgression following MWP-1B and increased river discharge in response to re-intensification of the summer monsoon about 11 ka cal BP. A second subaqueous delta formed in the South Yellow Sea about 9-7 ka BP during decelerated transgression after MWP-1C flooding and in response to the southern shift of the Yellow River mouth. The modern subaqueous and subaerial deltas in the west Bahai Gulf and (to a lesser extent) along the Jiangus coast have formed during the modern sea-level highstand. These changing Holocene patterns are most clearly illustrated by a short film clip.

  17. A complete Holocene record of trematode-bivalve infection and implications for the response of parasitism to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntley, John Warren; Fürsich, Franz T; Alberti, Matthias; Hethke, Manja; Liu, Chunlian

    2014-12-23

    Increasing global temperature and sea-level rise have led to concern about expansions in the distribution and prevalence of complex-lifecycle parasites (CLPs). Indeed, numerous environmental variables can influence the infectivity and reproductive output of many pathogens. Digenean trematodes are CLPs with intermediate invertebrate and definitive vertebrate hosts. Global warming and sea level rise may affect these hosts to varying degrees, and the effect of increasing temperature on parasite prevalence has proven to be nonlinear and difficult to predict. Projecting the response of parasites to anthropogenic climate change is vital for human health, and a longer term perspective (10(4) y) offered by the subfossil record is necessary to complement the experimental and historical approaches of shorter temporal duration (10(-1) to 10(3) y). We demonstrate, using a high-resolution 9,600-y record of trematode parasite traces in bivalve hosts from the Holocene Pearl River Delta, that prevalence was significantly higher during the earliest stages of sea level rise, significantly lower during the maximum transgression, and statistically indistinguishable in the other stages of sea-level rise and delta progradation. This stratigraphic paleobiological pattern represents the only long-term high-resolution record of pathogen response to global change, is consistent with fossil and recent data from other marine basins, and is instructive regarding the future of disease. We predict an increase in trematode prevalence concurrent with anthropogenic warming and marine transgression, with negative implications for estuarine macrobenthos, marine fisheries, and human health.

  18. Climate variations and changes in extreme climate events in Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulygina, O N; Razuvaev, V N; Korshunova, N N; Groisman, P Ya

    2007-01-01

    Daily temperature (mean, minimum and maximum) and atmospheric precipitation data from 857 stations are used to analyze variations in the space-time distribution of extreme temperatures and precipitation across Russia during the past six decades. The seasonal numbers of days (N) when daily air temperatures (diurnal temperature range, precipitation) were higher or lower than selected thresholds are used as indices of climatic extremes. Linear trends in N are calculated for each station for the time period of interest. The seasonal numbers of days (for each season) with maximum temperatures higher than the 95th percentile have increased over most of Russia, with minimum temperatures lower than the 5th percentile having decreased. A tendency for the decrease in the number of days with abnormally high diurnal temperature range is observed over most of Russia. In individual regions of Russia, however, a tendency for an increasing number of days with a large diurnal amplitude is found. The largest tendency for increasing number of days with heavy precipitation is observed in winter in Western Siberia and Yakutia

  19. Late holocene ice core records of climate and environment from the Tropical Andes, Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available DONNÉES CLIMATIQUES ET ENVIRONNEMENTALES DÉDUITES DES CAROTTES DE GLACE DES ANDES TROPICALES (PÉROU À L’HOLOCÈNE RÉCENT. On compare l’histoire du climat et de l’environnement reconstituée à partir des carottes extraites de la calotte de glace de Quelccaya (13º56’S, 70º50’O, 5 670 m et de la “Garganta” du Huascarán (9°06’S, 77°36’O, 6 048 m s.n.m. Les paramètres analysés sont le rapport isotopique de l’oxygène ( 18O considéré comme un indicateur des températures, les poussières non solubles et (pour le Huascarán seulement la concentration en nitrates (NO3-, qui est un indicateur des fluctuations de la végétation dans la forêt amazonienne. Les profils du  18O et du NO3- au Huascarán pour les derniers 3 000 ans montrent qu’il y a eu une baisse générale des températures accompagnée par une diminution de l’activité biologique dans le bassin amazonien, avec des valeurs minimales atteintes pendant le Petit Age de Glace, de 200 à 500 ans BP. Il y a eu après une augmentation rapide du  18O, qui a atteint les valeurs d’il y a 3 000 ans BP. Ce réchauffement rapide a dominé les deux derniers siècles sur les deux sites. Les niveaux de NO3- au Huascarán ont aussi augmenté pendant cette période, bien que moins rapidement. L’évidence d’un léger enrichissement isotopique (réchauffement existe entre 1 150 y 900 ans BP, qui pourrait être mis en relation avec “l’Optimum Médiéval”. Le niveau des poussières, constant depuis 3 000 ans, a été interrompu par un événement de fortes concentrations de poussières entre 2 000 y 1 800 ans BP (0-200 A.D. centré sur les années 1 900 BP (100 A.D.. Des pics de moindre importance sont observés de 1 400 à 1 600 ans BP (400 a 600 A.D. et entre 1300 et 1030 BP (entre 700 et 960 A.D.. L’analyse des poussières associées à cet épisode révèle un matériau déposé par les vents de même composition que celui qui affleure en Cordill

  20. Response of Landscapes of the Sikhote-Alin Western Slopes to the Middle-Late Holocene Climatic Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzhigaeva, N. G.; Ganzey, L. A.; Panichev, A. M.; Grebennikova, T. A.; Mokhova, L. M.; Kopoteva, T. A.; Kudryavtseva, E. P.; Arslanov, Kh. A.; Maksimov, F. E.; Starikova, A. A.; Zakusin, S. V.

    2017-12-01

    The response of landscape biotic components of the western slope of the Sikhote-Alin Mountains (Bikin River middle flow) to the Middle-Late Holocene climate changes is discussed. The paleoreconstruction object was the Krasny Yar mari, which developed under the control of multidirectional short-term climatic changes. The last millennium was marked by particularly rapid and frequent changes in the local landscapes. The closely spaced orographic barrier strongly affected the development of biotic components and changes in the swamp hydrological regime. The moisture dynamics within the river catchment considerably controlled the development and change of the peat-forming plants. Several stages of the mari development were reconstructed; each began from the accumulation of eutrophic peat. It was followed by the transitional eutrophic-mesotrophic stage, with a higher role of atmospheric supply. The larch forests appeared in this part of the valley within the Atlantic-Subboreal cooling period. Korean pine developed in the forest vegetation in the low mountain relief at the beginning of the Subboreal and became one of the leading trees 2.6-2.3 ka BP. The lower role of the Korean pine and birch forest expansion in the first half of the Subatlantic could be related to the fires. The broadleaf-Korean pine forests became widespread in the Medieval Warm Period. Local swamp landscapes changed dramatically in the Little Ice Age, while the slope vegetation was not subject to any major changes. The landscapes were also affected by the fires, which became more frequent. The derivative communities with birch appeared on the mari. Moreover, this part of the valley was occasionally subject to heavy flooding.

  1. Lateglacial and Holocene climatic changes in south-eastern Patagonia inferred from carbonate isotope records of Laguna Potrok Aike (Argentina)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oehlerich, M.; Mayr, C.; Gussone, N.; Hahn, A.; Hölzl, S.; Lücke, A.; Ohlendorf, C.; Rummel, S.; Teichert, B. M. A.; Zolitschka, B.

    2015-04-01

    First results of strontium, calcium, carbon and oxygen isotope analyses of bulk carbonates from a 106 m long sediment record of Laguna Potrok Aike, located in southern Patagonia are presented. Morphological and isotopic investigations of μm-sized carbonate crystals in the sediment reveal an endogenic origin for the entire Holocene. During this time period the calcium carbonate record of Laguna Potrok Aike turned out to be most likely ikaite-derived. As ikaite precipitation in nature has only been observed in a narrow temperature window between 0 and 7 °C, the respective carbonate oxygen isotope ratios serve as a proxy of hydrological variations rather than of palaeotemperatures. We suggest that oxygen isotope ratios are sensitive to changes of the lake water balance induced by intensity variations of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies and discuss the role of this wind belt as a driver for climate change in southern South America. In combination with other proxy records the evolution of westerly wind intensities is reconstructed. Our data suggest that weak SHW prevailed during the Lateglacial and the early Holocene, interrupted by an interval with strengthened Westerlies between 13.4 and 11.3 ka cal BP. Wind strength increased at 9.2 ka cal BP and significantly intensified until 7.0 ka cal BP. Subsequently, the wind intensity diminished and stabilised to conditions similar to present day after a period of reduced evaporation during the "Little Ice Age". Strontium isotopes (87Sr/86Sr ratio) were identified as a potential lake-level indicator and point to a lowering from overflow conditions during the Glacial (∼17 ka cal BP) to lowest lake levels around 8 ka cal BP. Thereafter the strontium isotope curve resembles the lake-level curve which is stepwise rising until the "Little Ice Age". The variability of the Ca isotope composition of the sediment reflects changes in the Ca budget of the lake, indicating higher degrees of Ca utilisation during the period with

  2. Inferring late-Holocene climate in the Ecuadorian Andes using a chironomid-based temperature inference model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews-Bird, Frazer; Brooks, Stephen J.; Holden, Philip B.; Montoya, Encarni; Gosling, William D.

    2016-06-01

    Presented here is the first chironomid calibration data set for tropical South America. Surface sediments were collected from 59 lakes across Bolivia (15 lakes), Peru (32 lakes), and Ecuador (12 lakes) between 2004 and 2013 over an altitudinal gradient from 150 m above sea level (a.s.l) to 4655 m a.s.l, between 0-17° S and 64-78° W. The study sites cover a mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient of 25 °C. In total, 55 chironomid taxa were identified in the 59 calibration data set lakes. When used as a single explanatory variable, MAT explains 12.9 % of the variance (λ1/λ2 = 1.431). Two inference models were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and Bayesian methods. The best-performing model using conventional statistical methods was a WA (inverse) model (R2jack = 0.890; RMSEPjack = 2.404 °C, RMSEP - root mean squared error of prediction; mean biasjack = -0.017 °C; max biasjack = 4.665 °C). The Bayesian method produced a model with R2jack = 0.909, RMSEPjack = 2.373 °C, mean biasjack = 0.598 °C, and max biasjack = 3.158 °C. Both models were used to infer past temperatures from a ca. 3000-year record from the tropical Andes of Ecuador, Laguna Pindo. Inferred temperatures fluctuated around modern-day conditions but showed significant departures at certain intervals (ca. 1600 cal yr BP; ca. 3000-2500 cal yr BP). Both methods (WA and Bayesian) showed similar patterns of temperature variability; however, the magnitude of fluctuations differed. In general the WA method was more variable and often underestimated Holocene temperatures (by ca. -7 ± 2.5 °C relative to the modern period). The Bayesian method provided temperature anomaly estimates for cool periods that lay within the expected range of the Holocene (ca. -3 ± 3.4 °C). The error associated with both reconstructions is consistent with a constant temperature of 20 °C for the past 3000 years. We would caution, however, against an over-interpretation at this stage. The reconstruction can only

  3. Changes in climatic conditions, vegetation cover and erosion during the Holocene in southeast Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bellin, N.; Vanacker, V.

    2009-07-01

    The present-day landscape in Southeast Spain is the result of a long occupation history. To have a better understanding of the impact of human societies on soil degradation, we analysed the main shifts in vegetation cover, climate and human occupation for the last 12000 years. Our analyses use recently published information from continental and marine pollen series. The data suggest that climatic factors appear to be important driving factors of vegetation degradation induced by an increased aridity that is already recorded at about 5000 years ago. (Author) 19 refs.

  4. Changes in climatic conditions, vegetation cover and erosion during the Holocene in southeast Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bellin, N.; Vanacker, V.

    2009-01-01

    The present-day landscape in Southeast Spain is the result of a long occupation history. To have a better understanding of the impact of human societies on soil degradation, we analysed the main shifts in vegetation cover, climate and human occupation for the last 12000 years. Our analyses use recently published information from continental and marine pollen series. The data suggest that climatic factors appear to be important driving factors of vegetation degradation induced by an increased aridity that is already recorded at about 5000 years ago. (Author) 19 refs.

  5. Moderate climate signature in cranial anatomy of late holocene human populations from Southern South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paula Menéndez, Lumila

    2018-02-01

    The aim of this study is to analyze the association between cranial variation and climate in order to discuss their role during the diversification of southern South American populations. Therefore, the specific objectives are: (1) to explore the spatial pattern of cranial variation with regard to the climatic diversity of the region, and (2) to evaluate the differential impact that the climatic factors may have had on the shape and size of the diverse cranial structures studied. The variation in shape and size of 361 crania was studied, registering 62 3D landmarks that capture shape and size variation in the face, cranial vault, and base. Mean, minimum, and maximum annual temperature, as well as mean annual precipitation, but also diet and altitude, were matched for each population sample. A PCA, as well as spatial statistical techniques, including kriging, regression, and multimodel inference were employed. The facial skeleton size presents a latitudinal pattern which is partially associated with temperature diversity. Both diet and altitude are the variables that mainly explain the skull shape variation, although mean annual temperature also plays a role. The association between climate factors and cranial variation is low to moderate, mean annual temperature explains almost 40% of the entire skull, facial skeleton and cranial vault shape variation, while annual precipitation and minimum annual temperature only contribute to the morphological variation when considered together with maximum annual temperature. The cranial base is the structure less associated with climate diversity. These results suggest that climate factors may have had a partial impact on the facial and vault shape, and therefore contributed moderately to the diversification of southern South American populations, while diet and altitude might have had a stronger impact. Therefore, cranial variation at the southern cone has been shaped both by random and nonrandom factors. Particularly, the

  6. Late Holocene environmental reconstructions and the implications on flood events, typhoon patterns, and agriculture activities in NE Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.-C.; Behling, H.; Lee, T.-Q.; Li, H.-C.; Huh, C.-A.; Shiau, L.-J.; Chang, Y.-P.

    2014-05-01

    In this study, we reconstructed the paleoenvironmental changes from a sediment archive of the floodplain lake in Ilan Plain of NE Taiwan on multi-decadal resolution for the last ca. 1900 years. On the basis of pollen and diatom records, we evaluated the record of past vegetation, floods, typhoons and agriculture activities of this area, which is sensitive to the hydrological conditions of the West Pacific. High sedimentation rates with low microfossil preservations reflected multiple flood events and humid climatic conditions during 100-1400 AD. A shortly interrupted dry phase can be found during 940-1010 AD. The driest phase corresponds to the Little Ice Age phase 1 (LIA1, 1400-1620 AD) with less disturbance by flood events, which enhanced the occurrence of wetlands (Cyperaceae) and diatom depositions. Humid phases with frequent typhoons are inferred by high percentages of Lagerstroemia and high ratios of planktonic/benthic diatoms, respectively, during 500-700 AD and Little Ice Age phase 2 (LIA2, 1630-1850 AD). The occurrences of cultivated Poaceae (Oryza) during 1250-1300 AD and the last ~400 years, reflect agriculture activities, which seems to implicate strongly with the environmental stability. Finally, we found flood events which dominated during the El Niño-like stage, but dry events as well as frequent typhoon events happened during the La Niña-like stage. After comparing our results with the reconstructed proxy for tropical hydrological conditions, we suggested that the local hydrology in coastal East Asia were strongly affected by the typhoon-triggered heavy rainfalls which were influenced by the variation of global temperature, expansion of the Pacific warm pool and intensification of ENSO events.

  7. Conceptualizing Holistic Community Resilience to Climate Events: Foundation for a Climate Resilience Screening Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of resilience has been evolving over the past decade as a way to address the current and future challenges nations, states, and cities face from a changing climate. Understanding how the environment (natural and built), climate event risk, societal interactions, and g...

  8. Late-Holocene palaeoenvironments of Southern Crimea: Soils, soil-climate relationship and human impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lisetskii, Fedor N.; Stolba, Vladimir; Pichura, Vitalii I.

    2017-01-01

    Occupying 4% of Crimea’s territory, the sub-Mediterranean landscapes of Southern Crimea stand out for their distinct soil-climatic conditions and record of human activity. This paper presents the results of study of the newly formed and well-dated soils from 21 archaeological sites, making...

  9. Subfossil bog-pine horizons document climate and ecosystem changes during the Mid-Holocene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eckstein, J.; Leuschner, H.H.; Bauerochse, A.; Sass-Klaassen, U.

    2009-01-01

    Extended dendrochronological investigations were performed on subfossil pine entombed in peat layers of former raised bogs in Lower Saxony (NW Germany). The aim was to study of dynamics in bog development in response to local environmental conditions and regional changes in climate throughout the

  10. Tracking climate variability in the western Mediterranean during the Late Holocene: A multiproxy approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieto-Moreno, V.; Martínez-Ruiz, F.; Giralt, S.; Jimenéz-Espejo, F.; Gallego-Torres, D.; Rodrigo-Gámiz, M.; Garcia-Orellana, J.; Ortega-Huertas, M.; de Lange, G.J.

    2011-01-01

    Climate variability in the western Mediterranean is reconstructed for the last 4000 yr using marine sediments recovered in the west Algerian-Balearic basin, near the Alboran basin. Fluctuations in chemical and mineralogical sediment composition as well as grain size distribution are linked to

  11. Evaluation of climate change impact on extreme hydrological event ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Changes in hydrological extremes will have implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on extreme hydrological events in the Akaki River catchment area in and around Addis Ababa city.

  12. A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Braun

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events to a few simple principles, namely (i the existence of two different climate states, (ii a threshold process and (iii an overshooting in the stability of the system at the start and the end of the events, which is followed by a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2, in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance and provide the first explicitly reported manifestation of ghost resonance in a geosystem, i.e. of a mechanism which could be relevant for other systems with thresholds and with multiple states of operation. Our work enables us to explicitly simulate realistic probability measures of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (e.g. waiting time distributions, which are a prerequisite for statistical analyses on the regularity of the events by means of Monte-Carlo simulations. We thus think that our study is an important advance in order to develop more adequate methods to test the statistical significance and the origin of the proposed glacial 1470-year climate cycle.

  13. Holocene climate on the Modoc Plateau, northern California, USA: The view from Medicine Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starratt, Scott W.

    2009-01-01

    available for colonization by benthic diatoms and Isoetes. These fluctuations are not typical of the small number of low-elevation Holocene lake records in the region, and probably reflect the hydrologic conditions unique to Medicine Lake.

  14. Application of /sup 14/C-dating to sedimentary geology and climatology: Sea-level and climate change during the Holocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakai, Nobuyuki; Ohishi, Shyoji; Kuriyama, Toyoko; Nakamura, Toshio

    1987-11-01

    AMS /sup 14/C dating of small sized fossil shells, wood chips and sedimentary humic matter has been applied to the investigation of paleoclimatic and sea-level changes in the Holocene, using three estuarine and brackish lake sediment cores, drilled in Kawasaki city and Lake Hamanako, Japan. Precise and detailed ages at differing depths clarified large transitions of Holocene sedimentation rates, of two orders of magnitude. The vertical variation in delta/sup 13/C and C/N results for sedimentary organic matter, combined with AMS /sup 14/C ages, established continous climatic and sea-level fluctuation patterns through time and indicated the existence of neoglaciation coincident with the marine regression at 7500 to 7000 yr BP.

  15. NASA Climate Days: Promoting Climate Literacy One Ambassador and One Event at a Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, H. M.; Lewis, P. M.; Chambers, L. H.; Millham, R. A.; Richardson, A.

    2012-12-01

    With so many informal outreach and education venues across the world, leveraging them for climate education allows vast amounts of information to be translated to the public in a familiar setting through trusted local sources. One of the challenges is the development of an effective process for training informal educators and providing them with adequate support materials. The 'NASA Climate Day Kit', and its related training strategy for Earth Ambassadors, is designed to address some of these issues. The purpose of the NASA Climate Day project is to collect existing NASA climate education materials, assemble a cadre of informal educators, and provide professional development on the subject of climate change. This training is accomplished through a series of exercises, games, science talks and place-based training. After their training and immersion in climate-related content, participants develop and implement a climate event at their local informal education venue. Throughout their training the Earth Ambassadors are exposed to a wide array of climate related exercises and background content. Some of these include one-on-one science content talks with NASA scientists who study climate on a daily basis. This allows the Ambassador to have direct access to new cutting edge data and information. To complement the science talks, participants explore activities and games that can engage all ages at their climate event. During their training, they also explore the 'Climate Day Kit'. This Kit is an assemblage of climate-related materials created by various NASA groups. Key components of this Kit include data visualizations, articles, electronic reference material, science talks, NASA Education and Public Outreach (E/PO) climate materials, and examples of Climate Day events that have been conducted in the past. As an on-going resource and to use for their own climate event, each group of Earth Ambassadors has access to a dynamic website that hosts all of the science

  16. Similar speleothem δ18O signals indicating diverging climate variations in inland central Asia and monsoonal south Asia during the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Liya; Zhang, Xiaojian

    2017-04-01

    High-resolution and precisely dated speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from Asia have provided key evidence for past monsoonal changes. It is found that δ18O records of stalagmites from Kesang Cave (42°52'N, 81°45'E, Xinjiang, China) in inland central Asia were very similar to those from Qunf Cave (17°10'N, 54°18'E, southern Oman) in South Asia, shifting from light to heavy throughout the Holocene, which was regarded as a signal that strong Asian summer monsoon (ASM) may have intruded into the Kesang Cave site and/or adjacent areas in inland central Asia to produce heavy rainfall during the high insolation times (e.g. the early Holocene). However, this is in contrast to conclusions based on other Holocene proxy records and modeling simulations, showing a persistent wetting trend in arid central Asia during the Holocene with a dryer condition in the early Holocene and the wettest condition in the late Holocene. With an analysis of model-proxy data comparison, we revealed a possible physical mechanism responsible for the Holocene evolution of moisture/precipitation in Asian summer monsoon (ASM)-dominated regions and that in the inland central Asia. It is revealed that a recurrent circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern in the summertime mid-latitude circulation of the Northern Hemisphere was closely related to the ASM and the climate of inland central Asia, acting as a bridge linking the ASM to insolation, high-latitude forcing (North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST)), and low-latitude forcing (tropical Ocean SST). Also, the CGT influence speleothem δ18O values in South Asia via its effect on the amount of precipitation. In addition, the moisture source from the Indian Ocean is associated with relatively high δ18O values compared with that from the North Atlantic Ocean, leading to increased precipitation δ18O values. Hence, the CGT has probably been the key factor responsible for the in-phase relationship in speleothem δ18O values (Kesang Cave

  17. Reconstructing Holocene (sub)tropical climate and cyclone variability using geochemical proxies

    OpenAIRE

    van Soelen, E.E.

    2012-01-01

    Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for a warming trend that cannot easily be reversed. This warming trend is expected to have a large impact on global weather patterns and local environmental conditions, for example by changing precipitation patterns, sea level rise and increasing tropical cyclone activity. Therefore, (sub)tropical coastal regions are expected to be heavily impacted by future climate change. To improve our understanding of the possible consequences of futu...

  18. Reconstructing Late Holocene Climate Variability in North East China From Varved Maar Lake Sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panizzo, V. N.; Mackay, A. W.; Rioual, P.; Chu, G.; Leng, M. J.

    2008-12-01

    Reconstructing climatic variability over the past c. 2 ka years is recognised as a key PAGES timeframe (focus 2). However few high-resolution records exist from the climate sensitive region of N) China which receives the majority of its precipitation from the east Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Interactions between the EASM and the global climate system have great resonance. Such examples include how the EASM responded to changes in climate over the documented e.g. "Medieval Warm Period" (c. AD 900 - 1300), "Little Ice Age" (c. AD 1350-1850) and recent warming. At present, literature remains contradictory to such environmental changes in NE China over this time-frame due to poor chronological control, low resolution of existing studies and even due to the inexact terminology of these climatic periods. Xiaolongwan Lake (XLW) is a small, closed, maar lake located in the Long Gang Volcanic Field, NE China (42°18'N; 126°19'E). It is at an elevation of 655 m a.s.l. with a maximum depth of 15 m. A varve chronology has been created for a 143 cm composite core (2 cores collected in 2006), and here we present diatoms and organic geochemistry (δ13C, TOC, C/N) evidence for environmental change over the past c. 2 ka years. Results show a gradual change in diatom species, moving from a composition where opportunistic species (e.g. Achnanthidium minutissimum) dominate (between c. 100 BC to 500 years AD) at the beginning of the record to one comprised of benthic/epiphytic species (e.g. Staurosira construens var venter, Punctastriata discoidea, Gomphonema parvulum). The introduction after c. 1850 years AD of the planktonic diatom species, Discotella woltereckii, not previously seen in the record, coincides with recent warming. This may be a response to changing limnological conditions, such as decreasing duration of lake ice-cover. Bulk organic δ13C results conducted on a short core collected from XLW in summer 2007, show that over the past c. 350 years there is a distinct

  19. Holocene vegetation and climatic variations in Central India: A study based on multiproxy evidences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauhan, M. S.; Sharma, Anupam; Phartiyal, Binita; Kumar, Kamlesh

    2013-11-01

    Palynology, texture, mineralogy, geochemistry, and magnetic susceptibility analysis of a 2 m deep sediment core from Padauna Swamp, southeastern Madhya Pradesh infers that between 8600 and 7500 cal yr BP a warm and relatively less-humid climate prevailed with open tree-savannahs dominated by grasses followed by sedges, Artemisia and members of Chenopodiaceae/Amaranthaceae with scanty trees viz., Schrebera, Aegle marmelos and Sterculia urens. This is well supported by lower organic to carbonate carbon ratio, coarser texture having relatively low CIA and magnetic susceptibility values and presence of some primary minerals. Between 7500 and 6250 cal yr BP the tree-savannahs were succeeded by open mixed deciduous forests with the invasion of a few more trees viz., Madhuca indica, Holoptelea, Emblica officinalis, Mitragyna parvifolia and members of Anacardiaceae in response to onset of a warm and humid climate. A considerable rise in organic carbon generated from the degradation of plentiful biomass along with increase in clay content with signs of kaolinite and increase in immobile over mobile elements with slightly higher CIA and magnetic susceptibility values also suggest climatic amelioration. The presence of ruderal plants such as Artemisia, Cannabis sativa and Cheno/Am further infers initiation of human activities in the region. Between 6250 and 2800 cal yr BP, the mixed deciduous forests became more diverse and dense, subduing grasses and other herbaceous elements. Sporadic incursion of Shorea robusta (Sal) in forest floristic was recorded around 5000 cal yr BP. The overall change in the vegetation mosaic reflects that a warm and more-humid climate prevailed in the region, probably on account of invigoration of southwest monsoon. This observation is further corroborated by other proxy data showing a spurt in organic/inorganic carbon ratio, increase in clay content with matured mineralogy, significantly higher CIA and magnetic susceptibility values. Since 2800 cal

  20. On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scafetta, Nicola; Milani, Franco; Bianchini, Antonio; Ortolani, Sergio

    2017-04-01

    evolves from more circular shapes (e≈0.590) to a more elliptical ones (e≈0.598), that is while the orbital system is slowly exploding or bursting outward. Since at this timescale the PMC eccentricity variation is relatively small (e=0.594±0.004), the physical origin of the astronomical 2318 yr cycle is better identified and distinguished from faster orbital oscillations by the times it takes the PMC to make pericycles and epicycles around the Sun and the times it takes to move from minimum to maximum distance from the Sun within those arcs. These particular proxies reveal a macroscopic 2318 yr period oscillation, together with other three stable outer planet orbital resonances with periods of 159, 171 and 185 yr. This 2318 yr oscillation is found to be spectrally coherent with the Δ14C Holocene record with a statistical confidence above 95%, as determined by spectral analysis and cross wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis. At the Hallstatt time scale, maxima of the radionucleotide production occurred when, within each pericycle-apocycle orbital arc, the time required by the PMC to move from the minimum to the maximum distance from the Sun varies from about 8 to 16 years while the time required by the same to move from the maximum to the minimum distance from the Sun varies from about 7 to 14 years, and viceversa. Thus, we found that a fast expansion of the Sun-PMC orbit followed by a slow contraction appears to prevent cosmic rays to enter within the system inner region while a slow expansion followed by a fast contraction favors it. Similarly, the same dynamics could modulate the amount of interplanetary/cosmic dust falling on Earth. Indeed, many other stable orbital resonance frequencies (e.g. at periods of 20 yr, 45 yr, 60 yr, 85 yr, 159-171-185 yr, etc.) are found in radionucleotide, solar, aurora and climate records, as determined in the scientific literature. Thus, the result supports a planetary theory of solar and/or climate variation that has recently

  1. Microbial Community Dynamics from Permafrost Across the Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary and Response to Abrupt Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammad, A.; Mahony, M.; Froese, D. G.; Lanoil, B. D.

    2014-12-01

    Earth is currently undergoing rapid warming similar to that observed about 10,000 years ago at the end of the Pleistocene. We know a considerable amount about the adaptations and extinctions of mammals and plants at the Pleistocene/Holocene (P/H) boundary, but relatively little about changes at the microbial level. Due to permafrost soils' freezing anoxic conditions, they act as microbial diversity archives allowing us to determine how microbial communities adapted to the abrupt warming at the end of P. Since microbial community composition only helps differentiate viable and extant microorganisms in frozen permafrost, microbial activity in thawing permafrost must be investigated to provide a clear understanding of microbial response to climate change. Current increased temperatures will result in warming and potential thaw of permafrost and release of stored organic carbon, freeing it for microbial utilization; turning permafrost into a carbon source. Studying permafrost viable microbial communities' diversity and activity will provide a better understanding of how these microorganisms respond to soil edaphic variability due to climate change across the P/H boundary, providing insight into the changes that the soil community is currently undergoing in this modern era of rapid climate change. Modern soil, H and P permafrost cores were collected from Lucky Lady II site outside Dawson City, Yukon. 16S rRNA high throughput sequencing of permafrost DNA showed the same trends for total and viable community richness and diversity with both decreasing with permafrost depth and only the richness increasing in mid and early P. The modern, H and P soils had 50.9, 33.9, and 27.3% unique viable species and only 14% of the total number of viable species were shared by all soils. Gas flux measurements of thawed permafrost showed metabolic activity in modern and permafrost soils, aerobic CH­­4 consumption in modern, some H and P soils, and anaerobic CH­­4 production in one H

  2. Evidence of climatic change during Holocene in the nearshore regions of Konkan (central west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gujar, A.R.; Guptha, M.V.S.

    grains, variation in the stability index and significantly poor diversity and scarcity of benthic foraminifera. In contrast, during the mid Holocene humid phase, the number of benthic foraminifera was very high. It is also remarked that Ammonia beccarii...

  3. Synchronous mid-Holocene climate deteriorations in circum-Mediterranean and their links with ancient civilizations: first speloethem and archeological evidences from N-Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Jiaoyang; Kherbouche, Farid; Genty, Dominique; Cheng, Hai; Dewilde, Fabien; Blamart, Dominique

    2015-04-01

    Over the last decades, ancient civilizations during the Holocene were heavily studied at many places around the Mediterranean region such as Libya and Italy, and changes in the past social activities were widely assumed to be linked to regional climate variability. However, in many cases the climatic records were apart from the archaeological sites and the archaeological chronologies were not well constrained, which makes these links uncertain. Here we present a 230Th-dated decadal resolution climate record for 6034-3185yr BP based on the δ18O and δ13C analyses of two overlapping stalagmites from Gueldaman GLD1 Cave (36°26'N, 4°34'E, 507 m asl), N-Algeria. Recent archaeological work in this cave brought first information about the Neolithisation process since ca 7000yr cal BP in the region where little was known before. Together with new charcoal 14C dates from the digging sections we test the link between past climate change and human activities in the cave. GLD1 stalagmite records reveal a dry event at ca 5700-5500yr BP and a drying trend toward extreme aridity, since ca 4700yr BP, peaking at ca 4200yr BP. These climatic deteriorations in N-Algeria, within dating errors, are synchronous with dry phases observed on speleothem records from central (Corchia Cave and Renella Cave, Italy) and eastern (Soreq Cave, Israel) Mediterranean. Specifically, climatic condition was harsher at ca 4200yr BP than at ca 5700-5500yr BP in central and W-Mediterranean; while it was harsher at ca 5700-5500yr BP in E-Mediterranean. The new 14C dates relatively well anchor the age of sediment layers with the richest anthropogenic deposits (i.e. charcoal, bone and Neolithic pottery) to ca 4900-4400yr cal BP, coinciding with the wettest period inferred from the stalagmite records. Shortly following this period, archaeological remains were becoming very rare in the sediments, which might be the consequence of establishing extremely arid phase at ca 4200yr BP. This suggests a possible

  4. Dansgaard–Oeschger events: bifurcation points in the climate system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Cimatoribus

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be the more correct for describing the palaeoclimatic signal. In this work, we assess the bimodality of the system, reconstructing the topology of the multi-dimensional attractor over which the climate system evolves. We use high-resolution ice core isotope data to investigate the statistical properties of the climate fluctuations in the period before the onset of the abrupt change. We show that Dansgaard–Oeschger events have weak early warning signals if the ensemble of events is considered. We find that the statistics are consistent with the switches between two different climate equilibrium states in response to a changing external forcing (e.g. solar, ice sheets, either forcing directly the transition or pacing it through stochastic resonance. These findings are most consistent with a model that associates Dansgaard–Oeschger with changing boundary conditions, and with the presence of a bifurcation point.

  5. Late Holocene climate and chemical change at high latitudes: case studies from contaminated sites in subarctic and arctic Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galloway, Jennifer M.; Cooney, Darryl; Crann, Carley; Falck, Hendrik; Howell, Dana; Jamieson, Heather; Macumber, Andrew; Nasser, Nawaf; Palmer, Michael; Patterson, R. Timothy; Parsons, Michael; Roe, Helen M.; Sanei, Hamed; Spence, Christopher; Stavinga, Drew; Swindles, Graeme T.

    2015-04-01

    preserved in the lake sediment cores are informed by our characterization of sediments from over 50 lakes in the region. In the longer record obtained from the Giant Mine area we show that the concentration of aqua regia leached As increases prior to resource development and that concentrations are variable over millennia. Lowest concentrations of As in the ~3500 cal yr BP record are coincident with regional Neoglacial cooling. As concentrations begin to increase from concentrations near 100 ppm to over 1000 ppm in the lastest Holocene, coincident with a period of regional warming associated with the Medieval Warm period, although at this point we cannot rule out post-depositional remobilization of As from higher in the sediment column. Concentrations in excess of 10,000 ppm at the top of the sediment core are likely associated with anthropogenic release of this contaminant. At the more northern Courageous Lake site, the sediment record extends back about a hundred years, and reveals that concentrations of As in lake sediments prior to development of the area were about 40 ppm. Increases in As are associated with drilling and mine production but continued increases after 1999 may be due to remobilization of As due to on-going climate warming, recent remediation efforts, or vertical movement of this element in the sediment column.

  6. Effective population size dynamics reveal impacts of historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressure in African elephants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Okello, J B A; Wittemyer, G; Rasmussen, Henrik Barner

    2008-01-01

    Two hundred years of elephant hunting for ivory, peaking in 1970-1980s, caused local extirpations and massive population declines across Africa. The resulting genetic impacts on surviving populations have not been studied, despite the importance of understanding the evolutionary repercussions...... of such human-mediated events on this keystone species. Using Bayesian coalescent-based genetic methods to evaluate time-specific changes in effective population size, we analysed genetic variation in 20 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci from 400 elephants inhabiting the greater Samburu-Laikipia region...... of northern Kenya. This area experienced a decline of between 80% and 90% in the last few decades when ivory harvesting was rampant. The most significant change in effective population size, however, occurred approximately 2500 years ago during a mid-Holocene period of climatic drying in tropical Africa...

  7. Comment on "Donders, T.H. 2014. Middle Holocene humidity increase in Florida: climate or sea-level? Quaternary Science Reviews 103:170-174."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaser, Paul H.; Hansen, Barbara CS; Donovan, Joseph J.; Givnish, Thomas J.; Stricker, Craig A.; Volin, John C.

    2015-01-01

    Donders (2014) has recently proposed that the climate of Florida became progressively wetter over the past 5000 years in response to a marked strengthening of the El Niño regime. This reconstruction is largely based on a re-analysis of pollen records from regions north of Lake Okeechobee (Fig. 1) using a new set of pollen transfer functions. Donders concluded that a latitudinal gradient in precipitation prevailed across Florida since the mid Holocene, but the overall trend was toward progressively wetter conditions from 5000 cal BP to the present.

  8. Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

  9. Modeling sensitivity study of the possible impact of snow and glaciers developing over Tibetan Plateau on Holocene African-Asian summer monsoon climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Jin

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of various scenarios of a gradual snow and glaciers developing over the Tibetan Plateau on climate change in Afro-Asian monsoon region and other regions during the Holocene (9 kyr BP–0 kyr BP are studied by using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2. The simulations show that the imposed snow and glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau in the mid-Holocene induce global summer temperature decreases over most of Eurasia but in the Southern Asia temperature response is opposite. With the imposed snow and glaciers, summer precipitation decreases strongly in North Africa and South Asia as well as northeastern China, while it increases in Southeast Asia and the Mediterranean. For the whole period of Holocene (9 kyr BP–0 kyr BP, the response of vegetation cover to the imposed snow and glaciers cover over the Tibetan Plateau is not synchronous in South Asia and in North Africa, showing an earlier and a more rapid decrease in vegetation cover in North Africa from 9 kyr BP to 6 kyr BP while it has only minor influence on that in South Asia until 5 kyr BP. The precipitation decreases rapidly in North Africa and South Asia while it decreases slowly or unchanged during 6 kyr BP to 0 kyr BP with imposed snow and glacier cover over the Tibetan Plateau. The different scenarios of snow and glacier developing over the Tibetan Plateau would result in differences in variation of temperature, precipitation and vegetation cover in North Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia. The model results suggest that the development of snow and ice cover over Tibetan Plateau represents an additional important climate feedback, which amplify orbital forcing and produces a significant synergy with the positive vegetation feedback.

  10. The Acridian plagues, a new Holocene and Pleistocene palaeoclimatic indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meco, Joaquín; Petit-Maire, Nicole; Ballester, Javier; Betancort, Juan F.; Ramos, Antonio J. G.

    2010-07-01

    Five palaeosols, intercalated within the Quaternary dune beds of Fuerteventura and Lanzarote (Canary Islands), off the Moroccan coast, mark wetter climatic episodes. In all of them, billions of calcified insect ootheca testify to past occurrences of Acridian plagues, such as those reaching the western Sahara following heavy rainfall events over the Sahel. The most massive infestation is in the Holocene, and should coincide with the climax of Saharo-Sahelian humidity at the peak of the present interglacial.

  11. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  12. Autochthonous Chikungunya Transmission and Extreme Climate Events in Southern France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roiz, David; Boussès, Philippe; Simard, Frédéric; Paupy, Christophe; Fontenille, Didier

    2015-06-01

    Extreme precipitation events are increasing as a result of ongoing global warming, but controversy surrounds the relationship between flooding and mosquito-borne diseases. A common view among the scientific community and public health officers is that heavy rainfalls have a flushing effect on breeding sites, which negatively affects vector populations, thereby diminishing disease transmission. During 2014 in Montpellier, France, there were at least 11 autochthonous cases of chikungunya caused by the invasive tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in the vicinity of an imported case. We show that an extreme rainfall event increased and extended the abundance of the disease vector Ae. albopictus, hence the period of autochthonous transmission of chikungunya. We report results from close monitoring of the adult and egg population of the chikungunya vector Ae. albopictus through weekly sampling over the entire mosquito breeding season, which revealed an unexpected pattern. Statistical analysis of the seasonal dynamics of female abundance in relation to climatic factors showed that these relationships changed after the heavy rainfall event. Before the inundations, accumulated temperatures are the most important variable predicting Ae. albopictus seasonal dynamics. However, after the inundations, accumulated rainfall over the 4 weeks prior to capture predicts the seasonal dynamics of this species and extension of the transmission period. Our empirical data suggests that heavy rainfall events did increase the risk of arbovirus transmission in Southern France in 2014 by favouring a rapid rise in abundance of vector mosquitoes. Further studies should now confirm these results in different ecological contexts, so that the impact of global change and extreme climatic events on mosquito population dynamics and the risk of disease transmission can be adequately understood.

  13. Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Mairesse; H. Goosse; P. Mathiot; H. Wanner; S. Dubinkina (Svetlana)

    2013-01-01

    htmlabstractThe mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP; thousand years before present) is a key period to study the consistency between model results and proxy-based reconstruction data as it corresponds to a standard test for models and a reasonable number of proxy-based records is available. Taking advantage of

  14. Modeling the sensitivity of sediment and water runoff dynamics to Holocene climate and land use changes at the catchment scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Notebaert, B.; Verstraeten, G.; Ward, P.J.; Renssen, H.; Van Rompaey, A.

    2011-01-01

    An increasing number of studies have indicated that soil erosion, sediment redistribution and water discharge during the Holocene have varied greatly under influence of environmental changes. In this paper we have used a modeling approach to study the driving forces for soil erosion and sediment

  15. The impact of early Holocene Arctic Shelf flooding on climate in an atmosphere–ocean–sea–ice model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blaschek, M.; Renssen, H.

    2013-01-01

    Glacial terminations are characterized by a strong rise in sea level related to melting ice sheets. This rise in sea level is not uniform all over the world, because regional effects (uplift and subsidence of coastal zones) are superimposed on global trends. During the early Holocene the Siberian

  16. On the differences between Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene climates in southern South America simulated by PMIP3 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Ana Laura; Silvestri, Gabriel E.; Tonello, Marcela S.

    2018-04-01

    Differences between climate conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Mid-Holocene (MH) in southern South America inferred from the state-of-the-art PMIP3 paleoclimatic simulations are described for the first time in this paper. The aim is to expose characteristics of past climate changes occurred without human influence. In this context, numerical simulations are an indispensable tool for inferring changes in near-surface air temperature and precipitation in regions where proxy information is scarce or absent. The analyzed PMIP3 models describe MH temperatures significantly warmer than those of LGM with magnitudes of change depending on the season and the specific geographic region. In addition, models indicate that seasonal mean precipitation during MH increased with respect to LGM values in wide southern continental areas to the east of the Andes Cordillera whereas seasonal precipitation developed in areas to the west of Patagonian Andes reduced from LGM to MH.

  17. Mid- to Late Holocene climate development in Central Asia as revealed from multi-proxy analyses of sediments from Lake Son Kol (Kyrgyzstan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauterbach, Stefan; Dulski, Peter; Gleixner, Gerd; Hettler-Riedel, Sabine; Mingram, Jens; Plessen, Birgit; Prasad, Sushma; Schwalb, Antje; Schwarz, Anja; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman

    2013-04-01

    A mid-Holocene shift from predominantly wet to significantly drier climate conditions, attributed to the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), is documented in numerous palaeoclimate records from the monsoon-influenced parts of Asia, e.g. the Tibetan Plateau and north- and southeastern China. In contrast, Holocene climate development in the arid regions of mid-latitude Central Asia, located north and northwest of the Tibetan Plateau, is less well-constrained but supposed to have been influenced by a complex interaction between the mid-latitude Westerlies and the ASM. Hence, well-dated and highly resolved palaeoclimate records from Central Asia might provide important information about spatio-temporal changes in the regional interplay between Westerlies and ASM and thus aid the understanding of global climate teleconnections. As a part of the project CADY (Central Asian Climate Dynamics), aiming at reconstructing past climatic and hydrological variability in Central Asia, several sediment cores were recovered from alpine Lake Son Kol (41° 48'N, 75° 12'E, 3016 m a. s. l.) in the Central Tian Shan of Kyrgyzstan. A radiocarbon-dated sediment sequence of 154.5 cm length, covering approximately the last 6000 years, was investigated by using a multi-proxy approach, including sedimentological, (bio)geochemical, isotopic and micropalaeontological analyses. Preliminary proxy data indicate hydrologically variable but predominantly wet conditions until ca. 5100 cal. a BP, characterized by the deposition of finely laminated organic-carbonatic sediments. In contrast to monsoonal Asia, where a distinct trend towards drier conditions is observed since the mid-Holocene, the hydrologically variable interval at Lake Son Kol was apparently followed by an only short-term dry episode between ca. 5100 and 4200 cal. a BP. This is characterized by a higher δD of the C29 n-alkanes, probably reflecting increased evapotranspiration. Also pollen, diatom and ostracod data point

  18. Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2009-12-01

    In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover. This implies that policy choices based on observable public opinion have lagged actual private concern over climate change's potential threat.

  19. Holocene aeolian activity in the Dinggye area (Southern Tibet, China)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Meihui; Wu, Yongqiu; Zheng, Yinghua; Tan, Lihua

    2014-03-01

    The Dinggye area (Southern Tibet) contains numerous aeolian sediments, including modern and ancient aeolian sand deposition. In this study, we determined the chronological sequences of several profiles of Holocene paleo-aeolian deposits using Optically Stimulate Luminescence (OSL) and radiocarbon (Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) 14C and conventional 14C) dating. Using the grain size, magnetic susceptibility, organic content and chrome characteristics of the deposits, we reconstructed the Holocene aeolian processes in the Dinggye area. The results from the paleo-aeolian depositional record indicate multiple changes in the intensity of aeolian activity and soil fixing with alternations between cool-dry and warm-humid climate conditions in the Dinggye area during the Holocene. From 12.8 ka B.P. to the present, the climate has fluctuated frequently. From 12.8 to 11.6 ka B.P. and from 9.3 to 4.9 ka B.P., the climate was warm and humid with weak aeolian activity, and a sandy paleosol developed. The peak Holocene megathermal period and the main period of pedogenesis in the study area was from 6.6 to 4.9 ka B.P. Between 11.6 and 9.3 ka B.P. and since 2.0 ka B.P., the sandlot expanded due to a cool, dry and windy climate; aeolian activity was strong and caused the development of moving dunes. The period between 4.9 and 2.0 ka B.P. was relatively cool and dry with slightly strengthened aeolian activity that developed stationary and semi-stationary dunes. In general, the Holocene events recorded by the paleo-aeolian deposits correspond well with those interpreted by other methods, such as records from ice-cores, lacustrine deposits and tree rings, but there are minor discrepancies between the methods.

  20. Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

    2018-01-01

    Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3 °C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2 °C per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

  1. Holocene River Dynamics, Climate Change and Floodwater Farming in the Watersheds of the Pamir and Tien Shan Mountains of Inner Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macklin, M. G.; Panyushkina, I. P.; Toonen, W. H. J.

    2014-12-01

    The Ili, Syr Dayra and Amu Dayra rivers of Inner Asia are emerging as critical areas for the development of irrigation-based agriculture in the ancient world. Following research by Russian archaeologists in the 1970s it is evident that these watersheds had flourishing riverine civilizations comparable to those in Mesopotamia and the Indus Valley. But unlike these areas where the relationship between Holocene river dynamics, climate change and floodwater farming is increasingly underpinned by radiometric dating, the alluvial archaeology of Inner Asia is significantly under researched. To address this, a major multi-disciplinary research program was begun in 2011 centred on the Talgar catchment, a south-bank tributary of the Ili river, southeast Kazakhstan. Building on archaeological excavations and surveys conducted over the past 20 years, we have undertaken one of the most detailed investigations of Holocene people-river environment interactions in Inner Asia. River development has been reconstructed over the last 20,000 years and human settlement histories from the Eneolithic to the Medieval period documented. Periods of Holocene river aggradation and high water levels in Lake Balkhash and Aral Sea correspond with cooler and wetter neoglacial episodes while river entrenchment and floodplain soil development are associated with warmer and drier conditions. Floodwater farming in the Talgar river reached its acme in the late Iron Age (400-200 cal. BC) with more than 60 settlement sites and 550 burial mounds. This corresponds to a period of reduced flood flows, river stability and glacier retreat in the Tien Shan headwaters. A new hydroclimatic-based model for the spatial and temporal dynamics of floodwater farming in the Ili, Syr Dayra and Amu Dayra watersheds is proposed, which explains the large scale expansion (down-river) and contraction (up-river) of settlements since the first use of irrigation in the Neolithic through to the late Medieval period.

  2. Extreme climatic events: reducing ecological and social systems vulnerabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decamps, H.; Amatore, C.; Bach, J.F.; Baccelli, F.; Balian, R.; Carpentier, A.; Charnay, P.; Cuzin, F.; Davier, M.; Dercourt, J.; Dumas, C.; Encrenaz, P.; Jeannerod, M.; Kahane, J.P.; Meunier, B.; Rebut, P.H.; Salencon, J.; Spitz, E.; Suquet, P.; Taquet, P.; Valleron, A.J.; Yoccoz, J.C.; Chapron, J.Y.; Fanon, J.; Andre, J.C.; Auger, P.; Bourrelier, P.H.; Combes, C.; Derrida, B.; Laubier, L.; Laval, K.; Le Maho, Y.; Marsily, G. De; Petit, M.; Schmidt-Laine, C.; Birot, Y.; Peyron, J.L.; Seguin, B.; Barles, S.; Besancenot, J.P.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Hallegatte, S.; Dumas, P.; Ancey, V.; Requier-Desjardins, M.; Ducharnes, A.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Kaniewski, D.; Van Campo, E.; Planton, S.; Manuguerra, J.C.; Le Bars, Y.; Lagadec, P.; Kessler, D.; Pontikis, C.; Nussbaum, R.

    2010-01-01

    The Earth has to face more and more devastating extreme events. Between 1970 and 2009, at the worldwide scale, the 25 most costly catastrophes all took place after 1987, and for more than half of them after 2001. Among these 25 catastrophes, 23 were linked to climate conditions. France was not spared: the December 1999 storms led to 88 deaths, deprived 3.5 million households of electricity and costed more than 9 billion euros. The 2003 heat wave led to about 15000 supernumerary deaths between August 1 and August 20. The recent Xynthia storm, with its flood barrier ruptures, provoked 53 deaths in addition to many other tragedies that took place in areas liable to flooding. In the present day context of climate change, we know that we must be prepared to even more dangerous events, sometimes unexpected before. These events can have amplified effects because of the urban development, the overpopulation of coastal areas and the anthropization of natural environments. They represent real 'poverty traps' for the poorest countries of the Earth. The anticipation need is real but is our country ready to answer it? Does it have a sufficient contribution to international actions aiming at reducing risks? Is his scientific information suitable? France is not less vulnerable than other countries. It must reinforce its prevention, its response and resilience capacities in the framework of integrated policies of catastrophes risk management as well as in the framework of climate change adaptation plans. This reinforcement supposes the development of vigilance systems with a better risk coverage and benefiting by the advances gained in the meteorology and health domains. It supposes a town and country planning allowing to improve the viability of ecological and social systems - in particular by protecting their diversity. Finally, this reinforcement requires inciting financial coverage solutions for catastrophes prevention and for their management once they have taken place. A

  3. Past Holocene detritism quantification and modeling from lacustrine archives in order to deconvoluate human-climate interactions on natural ecosystem over long time-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonneau, Anaëlle; Chapron, Emmanuel; Di Giovanni, Christian; Galop, Didier; Darboux, Frédéric

    2014-05-01

    Water budget is one of the main challenges to paleoclimate researchers in relation to present-day global warming and its consequences for human societies. Associated soil degradation and erosion are thereby becoming a major concern in many parts of the world and more particularly in the Alps. Moreover, humans are considered as geomorphologic agents since few thousand years and it is now recognized that such an impact on natural ecosystem profoundly modified soils properties as well as aquatic ecosystems dynamics over long-term periods. The quantification of such inference over long time-scale is therefore essential to establish new policies to reduce mechanic soil erosion, which is one of the dominant processes in Europe, and anticipate the potential consequences of future climate change on hydric erosion. The mechanical erosion of continental surfaces results from climatic forcing, but can be amplified by the anthropogenic one. We therefore suggest that quantifying and modelling soil erosion processes within comparable Holocene lacustrine archives, allows to estimate and date which and when past human activities have had an impact on soil fluxes over the last 10000 years. Based on the present-day geomorphology of the surrounding watershed and the evolution of the vegetation cover during the Holocene, we develop an interdisciplinary approach combining quantitative organic petrography (i.e. optical characterization and quantification of soil particles within lake sediments) with high-resolution seismic profiling, age-depth models on lacustrine sediment cores and soil erosional susceptibility modeling, in order to estimate the annual volume of soil eroded over the last 10000 years, and in fine to quantify the volume of human-induced soil erosion during the Holocene period. This method is applied to close but contrasted mountainous lacustrine environments from the western French Alps: lakes Blanc Huez and Paladru, sensitive to same climatic influences but where past

  4. Beach-ridge series in northern Peru: chronology, correlation, and relationship with major Late Holocene El Niño events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1993-01-01

    íos de la costa norte del Perú (Santa, Chira, Piura podrían reflejar los mayores eventos El Niño de la segunda mitad del Holoceno. Con el objetivo de averiguar esta interpretación, se reexamina aquí las principales características de las dos secuencias de cordones observadas en ambos lados de la desembocadura del río Chira, y en particular el conjunto de datos radiocronológicos obtenidos sobre estos cordones. Se confirma que los cordones de las dos secuencias difieren entre sí tanto por el tipo de sedimento como por su morfología, pero que en los dos casos su formación implicó condiciones meteorológicas y procesos oceanográficos que caracterizan eventos El Niño muy fuertes. Los fechamientos por radiocarbono de conchas marinas y carbón muestreados dentro y sobre los cordones sugieren que las dos series se fueron formando paralelamente en los últimos 4500 años. Los cordones se habrían formado a intervalos de tiempo de 100-600 años. La comparación geomorfológica de las dos series de cordones, su disposición geométrica y el conjunto de datos geocronológicos llevan a establecer una correlación cronológica entre las dos secuencias. Esta correlación tiende a confirmar que la formación de estas construcciones litorales fue ligada a los más violentos trastornos océano climáticos de tipo El Niño que ocurrieron en los últimos milenios. It has previously been hypothesized that the sequences of beach ridges observed at the mouth of the major rivers of the northern coast of Peru (Santa, Chira and Piura Rivers might record the most intense events of the El Niño phenomenon that occurred in the second half of the Holocene. The purpose of this paper is to reexamine this interpretation through a comparative study of the two sequences preserved north and south of the Chira River mouth. The beach ridges of the two sequences are different sedimentologically and geomorphologically but in both cases required, for their formation, particular meteorologic and

  5. Pollen record of the mid- to late-Holocene centennial climate change on the East coast of South Korea and its influential factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Bing; Yi, Sangheon; Jia, Hongjuan; Nahm, Wook-Hyun; Kim, Jin-Cheul; Lim, Jaesoo; Lee, Jin-Young; Sha, Longbin; Mao, Limi; Yang, Zhongyong; Nakanishi, Toshimichi; Hong, Wan; Li, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    To understand historical climate change in western Pacific coastal areas, a sediment core (SOJ-2) from the stable sedimentary environment of the Songjiho Lagoon on the east coast of South Korea was obtained for centennial-resolution palynological analysis. The ages of the SOJ-2 core is well controlled by carbon 14 dating with high-resolution accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS), and the results indicated a general warm to cold climate trend from the mid-Holocene to the present, which can be divided into two different stages: a warmer stage between 6842 and 1297 cal yr BP and a colder stage from 1297 cal yr BP to the present, with fluctuations during these stages. The climate was wetter from 6842 to 6227 cal yr BP and 4520 to 1297 cal yr BP and was drier from 6227 to 4520 cal yr BP. The climate changed to cold and dry during the period from 1297-425 cal yr BP. The impact of human activity on the climate began at approximately 1297 cal yr BP and became pronounced starting in 425 cal yr BP. The general cooling trend may represent a response to decreasing solar insolation; however, the relative dryness or wetness of the climate may have been co-determined by westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The climate had a teleconnection with the North Atlantic region, resulting from changes in solar activity. Nevertheless, EI Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity played an important role in impacting the EASM changes in western Pacific coastal areas.

  6. Potential influence of the late Holocene climate on settled farming versus nomadic cattle herding in the Minusinsk Hollow, south-central Siberia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blyakharchuk, T A; Tchebakova, N M; Parfenova, E I; Soja, A J

    2014-01-01

    Prehistoric and early historic human cultures are known to be closely connected to and dependent on their natural environments. We test the hypothesis that climate change influenced the means of subsistence of ancient tribes and favored agricultural or cattle herding economic strategies. Our study area is the Khakass–Minusinsk Hollow, located in the foothills of the Sayan Mountains, south-central Siberia, which was, for a few millennia, a buffer zone for human migrations across the Great Eurasian Steppe. Three different methods (the Montane BioClimatic Model, MontBCliM; the biomization method; and the actualizm method) are employed to reconstruct vegetation taken from the fossil pollen of sediment cores in two mountain lakes at eleven time slices related to successive human cultures back to the mid-Holocene. MontBCliM model is used inversely to convert site paleo-vegetation into site paleo-climates. Climate-based regression models are developed and applied to reconstructed climates to evaluate possible pasture and grain crops for these time slices. Pollen-based reconstructions of the climate fluctuations uncovered several dry periods with steppe and forest-steppe and wetter periods with forests since 6000 BP. Grasslands increased by an order of magnitude during the dry periods and provided extensive open space suitable for pastoralism; however, both grain and pasture yields decreased during these dry periods. During wetter climates, both grain and pasture yields increased twofold and supported more fixed human settlements centered around farming and cattle herding. Thus, the dry periods favored pastoralist rather than farming activities. Conversely, tribes that practiced agriculture had some advantage in the wet periods. (papers)

  7. Response of C3 and C4 plants to middle-Holocene climatic variation near the prairie-forest ecotone of Minnesota, U.S.A.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tian, J; Brown, T A; Hu, F S; Stefanova, I; Nelson, D M

    2003-12-24

    Paleorecords of the middle Holocene (MH) from the North American midcontinent can offer insights into ecological responses to pervasive drought that may accompany future climatic warming. We analyzed MH sediments from West Olaf Lake (WOL) and Steel Lake (SL) in Minnesota to examine the effects of warm/dry climatic conditions on prairie-woodland ecosystems. Mineral composition and carbonate {delta}{sup 18}O were used to determine climatic variations, whereas pollen assemblages, charcoal {delta}{sup 13}C, and charcoal accumulation rates were used to reconstruct vegetation composition, C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} plant abundance, and fire. The ratio of aragonite:calcite at WOL and {delta}{sup 18}O at SL suggest that pronounced droughts occurred during the MH but that drought severity decreased with time. From charcoal {delta}{sup 13}C data we estimated that the MH abundance of C{sub 4} plants averaged 50% at WOL and 43% at SL. At WOL C{sub 4} abundance was negatively correlated with aragonite:calcite, suggesting that severe moisture deficits suppressed C{sub 4} plants in favor of weedy C{sub 3} plants (e.g., Ambrosia). As climate ameliorated C{sub 4} abundance increased (from {approx}33 to 66%) at the expense of weedy species, enhancing fuel availability and fire occurrence. In contrast, farther east at SL climate was cooler and wetter than at WOL, and C{sub 4} abundance showed no correlation with {delta}{sup 18}O-inferred aridity. Woody C{sub 3} plants (e.g., Quercus) were more abundant, biomass flammability lower, and fires less important at SL than at WOL. Our results suggest that C{sub 4} plants are adapted to warm/dry climatic conditions, but not to extreme droughts, and that the fire regime is controlled by biomass-climate interactions.

  8. Re-Evaluating the Geological Evidence for Late Holocene Marine Incursion Events along the Guerrero Seismic Gap on the Pacific Coast of Mexico.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas A Bianchette

    Full Text Available Despite the large number of tsunamis that impact Mexico's Pacific coast, stratigraphic studies focusing on geological impacts are scanty, making it difficult to assess the long-term risks for this vulnerable region. Surface samples and six cores were taken from Laguna Mitla near Acapulco to examine sedimentological and geochemical evidence for marine incursion events. Sediment cores collected from behind the beach barrier are dominated by intercalated layers of peat and inorganic sediments, mostly silt and clay, with little or no sand. Sand- and shell-rich clastic layers with high levels of sulfur, calcium, and strontium only occur adjacent to the relict beach ridge remnants near the center of the lagoon. With the exception of one thin fine sand layer, the absence of sand in the near-shore cores and the predominance of the terrigenous element titanium in the inorganic layers, evidently eroded from the surrounding hillslopes, suggests that these large-grained intervals do not represent episodic marine incursions, but rather were likely formed by the erosion and redeposition of older marine deposits derived from the beach ridge remnants when water levels were high. These results do not support the occurrence of a large tsunami event at Laguna Mitla during the Late Holocene.

  9. Re-Evaluating the Geological Evidence for Late Holocene Marine Incursion Events along the Guerrero Seismic Gap on the Pacific Coast of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchette, Thomas A; McCloskey, Terrence A; Liu, Kam-Biu

    2016-01-01

    Despite the large number of tsunamis that impact Mexico's Pacific coast, stratigraphic studies focusing on geological impacts are scanty, making it difficult to assess the long-term risks for this vulnerable region. Surface samples and six cores were taken from Laguna Mitla near Acapulco to examine sedimentological and geochemical evidence for marine incursion events. Sediment cores collected from behind the beach barrier are dominated by intercalated layers of peat and inorganic sediments, mostly silt and clay, with little or no sand. Sand- and shell-rich clastic layers with high levels of sulfur, calcium, and strontium only occur adjacent to the relict beach ridge remnants near the center of the lagoon. With the exception of one thin fine sand layer, the absence of sand in the near-shore cores and the predominance of the terrigenous element titanium in the inorganic layers, evidently eroded from the surrounding hillslopes, suggests that these large-grained intervals do not represent episodic marine incursions, but rather were likely formed by the erosion and redeposition of older marine deposits derived from the beach ridge remnants when water levels were high. These results do not support the occurrence of a large tsunami event at Laguna Mitla during the Late Holocene.

  10. An Integrative Approach for Defining Plinian and Sub-Plinian Eruptive Scenarios at Andesitic Volcanoes: Event-Lithostratigraphy, Eruptive Parameters and Pyroclast Textural Variations of the Largest Late-Holocene Eruptions of Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Orozco, R.; Cronin, S. J.; Damaschke, M.; Kosik, S.; Pardo, N.

    2016-12-01

    Three eruptive scenarios were determined based on the event-lithostratigraphic reconstruction of the largest late-Holocene eruptions of the andesitic Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand: a) sustained dome-effusion followed by sudden stepwise collapse and unroofing of gas-rich magma; b) repeated plug and burst events generated by transient open-/closed-vent conditions; and c) open-vent conditions of more mafic magmas erupting from a satellite vent. Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are the most frequent outcome in every scenario. They can be produced in any/every eruption phase by formation and either repetitive-partial or total gravity-driven collapse of lava domes in the summit crater (block-and-ash flows), frequently followed by sudden magma decompression and violent, highly unsteady to quasi-steady lateral expansion (blast-like PDCs); by collapse or single-pulse fall-back of unsteady eruption columns (pyroclastic flow- and surge-type currents); or during highly unsteady and explosive hydromagmatic phases (wet surges). Fall deposits are produced during the climatic phase of each eruptive scenario by the emplacement of (i) high, sustained and steady, (ii) sustained and height-oscillating, (iii) quasi-steady and pulsating, or (iv) unsteady and totally collapsing eruption columns. Volumes, column heights and mass- and volume-eruption rates indicate that these scenarios correspond to VEI 4-5 plinian and sub-plinian multi-phase and style-shifting episodes, similar or larger than the most recent 1655 AD activity, and comparable to plinian eruptions of e.g. Apoyeque, Colima, Merapi and Tarawera volcanoes. Whole-rock chemistry, textural reconstructions and density-porosity determinations suggest that the different eruptive scenarios are mainly driven by variations in the density structure of magma in the upper conduit. Assuming a simple single conduit model, the style transitions can be explained by differing proportions of alternating gas-poor/degassed and gas-rich magma.

  11. Late-Holocene vegetation dynamics in response to a changing climate and anthropogenic influences - Insights from stratigraphic records and subfossil trees from southeast Lithuania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edvardsson, Johannes; Stančikaitė, Miglė; Miras, Yannick; Corona, Christophe; Gryguc, Gražyna; Gedminienė, Laura; Mažeika, Jonas; Stoffel, Markus

    2018-04-01

    To increase our understanding of long-term climate dynamics and its effects on different ecosystems, palaeoclimatic and long-term botanical reconstructions need to be improved, in particular in underutilized geographical regions. In this study, vegetation, (hydro)climate, and land-use changes were documented at two southeast Lithuanian peatland complexes - Čepkeliai and Rieznyčia - for the Late-Holocene period. The documentation was based on a combination of pollen, plant macrofossils, peat stratigraphic records, and subfossil trees. Our results cover the last two millennia and reveal the existence of moist conditions in Southern Lithuania between 300 and 500 CE and from 950 to 1850 CE. Conversely, changes towards warmer and/or dryer conditions have been recorded in 100, 600, and 750 CE, and since the 1850s. Significant differences with other Baltic proxies prevent deriving a complete and precise long-term reconstruction of past hydroclimatic variability at the regional scale. Yet, our results provide an important cornerstone for an improved understanding of regional climate change, i.e. in a region for which only (i) few detailed palaeobotanical studies exist and which has, in addition, been considered as (ii) an ecologically sensitive region at the interface between the temperate and boreal bioclimatic zones.

  12. Latest Pleistocene to Holocene thrust faulting paleoearthquakes at Monte Netto (Brescia, Italy): lessons learned from the Middle Ages seismic events in the Po Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michetti, Alessandro Maria; Berlusconi, Andrea; Livio, Franz; Sileo, Giancanio; Zerboni, Andrea; Serva, Leonello; Vittori, Eutizio; Rodnight, Helena; Spötl, Christoph

    2010-05-01

    The seismicity of the Po Plain in Northern Italy is characterized by two strong Middle Ages earthquakes, the 1117, I° X MCS Verona, and the December 25, 1222, I° IX-X Brescia, events. Historical reports from these events describe relevant coseismic environmental effects, such as drainage changes, ground rupture and landslides. Due to the difficult interpretation of intensity data from such old seismic events, considerable uncertainty exists about their source parameters, and therefore about their causative tectonic structures. In a recent review, Stucchi et al. (2008) concluded that 'the historical data do not significantly help to constrain the assessment of the seismogenic potential of the area, which remains one of the most unknown, although potentially dangerous, seismic areas of the Italian region'. This issue needs therefore to be addressed by using the archaeological and geological evidence of past earthquakes, that is, archeoseismology and paleoseismology. Earthquake damage to archaeological sites in the study area has been the subject of several recent papers. Here we focus on new paleoseismological evidence, and in particular on the first observation of Holocene paleoseismic surface faulting in the Po Plain identified at the Monte Netto site, located ca. 10 km S of Brescia, in the area where the highest damage from the Christmas 1222 earthquake have been recorded. Monte Netto is a small hill, ca. 30 m higher than the surrounding piedmont plain, which represent the top of a growing fault-related fold belonging to the Quaternary frontal sector of the Southern Alps; the causative deep structure is a N-verging back thrust, well imaged in the industrial seismic reflection profiles kindly made available by ENI E&P. New trenching investigations have been conducted at the Cava Danesi of Monte Netto in October 2009, focused on the 1:10 scale analysis of the upper part of the 7 m high mid-Pleistocene to Holocene stratigraphic section exposed along the quarry

  13. Investigating extreme flood response to Holocene palaeoclimate in the Chinese monsoonal zone: A palaeoflood case study from the Hanjiang River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yongqiang; Huang, Chun Chang; Pang, Jiangli; Zha, Xiaochun; Zhou, Yali; Wang, Longsheng; Zhang, Yuzhu; Hu, Guiming

    2015-06-01

    Palaeoflood events recorded by slackwater deposits (SWDs) were investigated extensively by sedimentological criteria of palaeohydrology along the upper Hanjiang River valley. Modern flood SWDs were collected for comparison with palaeoflood SWD in the same reaches. Three typical palaeoflood SWDs were observed within Holocene loess-soil blanket on the first river terrace land. The grain size distributions of palaeoflood SWDs are similar to modern flood SWDs, whereas they are different from eolian loess and soil. Palaeoflood SWD lies in three major pedo-stratigraphic boundaries (TS/L0, L0/S0, and S0/Lt) in the Holocene loess-soil profiles. The chronology of three palaeoflood episodes was established by OSL dating and pedo-stratigraphic correlation with the well-dated Holocene loess-soil profiles in the upper Hanjiang River basin. Holocene palaeoflood events were dated to 9500-8500, 3200-2800, and 1800-1700 a B.P., respectively. Palaeoflood discharges were estimated by the palaeoflood model (i.e., slope-area method and step-backwater method). The highest discharges are 51,680-53,950 m3 s- 1 at the 11,500-time scale in the Xunyang reach of the upper Hanjiang River valley. Holocene extraordinary hydroclimatic events in the Hanjiang River often result from abnormal atmospheric circulations from Southwest monsoons in the Chinese monsoonal zone. These results provide a regional expression of extreme flood response to Holocene palaeoclimate to understand the effects of global climatic variations on the river system dynamics.

  14. Atlantic Warm Pool Trigger for the Younger Dryas Climate Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.; Teneva, L. T.

    2011-12-01

    There is growing evidence that variability in the size and heat content of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool impacts circum-North Atlantic climate via the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation mode (Wang et al., 2008). The Atlantic Warm Pool spans the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and the western tropical North Atlantic. Barbados is located near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool and coupled ocean models suggest that Barbados remains near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool under varying wind stress simulations. Measurements of the oxygen isotope paleothermometer in Acropora palmata coral species recovered from cores offshore Barbados, show a 3oC monotonic decrease in sea surface temperature from 13106 ± 83 to 12744 ± 61 years before present (errors given as 2 sigma). This interval corresponds to a sea level rise from 71.4 meters to 67.1 meters below present levels at Barbados. The 3oC temperature decrease is captured in eight A. palmata specimens that are in stratigraphic sequence, 230Th/234U dated, and analyzed for oxygen isotopes. All measurements are replicated. We are confident that this is the warm pool equivalent of the Younger Dryas climate event. The initiation of this temperature drop in the Atlantic Warm Pool predates the Younger Dryas start in Greenland ice cores, reported to start at 12896 ± 138 years (relative to AD 2000) (Rasmussen et al., 2006), while few other Younger Dryas climate records are dated with similar accuracy to make the comparison. Rasmussen, S.O., Andersen, K.K., Svensson, A.M., Steffensen, J.P., Vinther, B.M., Clausen, H.B., Siggaard-Andersen, M.L., Johnsen, S.J., Larsen, L.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M.E., and Ruth, U., 2006, A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination: J. Geophys. Res., v. 111, p. D06102. Wang, C., Lee, S.-K., and Enfield, D.B., 2008, Atlantic Warm Pool acting as a link between Atlantic Multidecadal

  15. Liquefaction evidence for the strength of ground motions resulting from Late Holocene Cascadia subduction earthquakes, with emphasis on the event of 1700 A.D.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obermeier, S.F.; Dickenson, S.E.

    2000-01-01

    During the past decade, paleoseismic studies done by many researchers in the coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest have shown that regional downdropping and subsequent tsunami inundation occurred in response to a major earthquake along the Cascadia subduction zone. This earthquake occurred almost certainly in 1700 A.D., and is believed by many to have been of M 8.5-9 or perhaps larger. In order to characterize the severity of ground motions from this earthquake, we report on a field search and analysis of seismically induced liquefaction features. The search was conducted chiefly along the banks of islands in the lowermost Columbia River of Oregon and Washington and in stream banks along smaller rivers throughout southwestern Washington. To a lesser extent, the investigation included rivers in central Oregon. Numerous small- to moderate-sized liquefaction features from the earthquake of 1700 A.D. were found in some regions, but there was a notable lack of liquefaction features in others. The regional distribution of liquefaction features is evaluated as a function of geologic and geotechnical factors in different field settings near the coast. Our use of widely different field settings, each in which we independently assess the strength of shaking and arrive at the same conclusion, enhances the credibility of our interpretations. Our regional inventory of liquefaction features and preliminary geotechnical analysis of liquefaction potential provide substantial evidence for only moderate levels of ground shaking in coastal Washington and Oregon during the subduction earthquake of 1700 A.D. Additionally, it appears that a similar conclusion can be reached for an earlier subduction earthquake that occurred within the past 1100 years, which also has been characterized by others as being M 8 or greater. On the basis of more limited data for older events collected in our regional study, it appears that seismic shaking has been no stronger throughout Holocene time. Our

  16. Towards a climate event stratigraphy for New Zealand over the past 30 000 years (NZ-INTIMATE project)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alloway, Brent V.; Lowe, David J.; Barrell, David J. A.; Newnham, Rewi M.; Almond, Peter C.; Augustinus, Paul C.; Bertler, Nancy A. N.; Carter, Lionel; Litchfield, Nicola J.; McGlone, Matt S.; Shulmeister, Jamie; Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Williams, Paul W.; Members, Nz-Intimate

    2007-01-01

    on northwest South Island, Okarito wetland on southwestern South Island, are presented. Discontinuous (fragmentary) records comprising compilations of glacial sequences, fluvial sequences, loess accumulation, and aeolian quartz accumulation in an andesitic terrain are described. Comparisons with ice-core records from Antarctica (EPICA Dome C) and Greenland (GISP2) are discussed. A major advantage immediately evident from these records apart from the speleothem record, is that they are linked precisely by one or more tephra layers. Based on these New Zealand terrestrial and marine records, a reasonably coherent, regionally applicable, sequence of climatically linked stratigraphic events over the past 30 000 cal. yr is emerging. Three major climate events are recognised: (1) LGCP beginning at ca. 28 000 cal. yr BP, ending at Termination I, ca. 18 000 cal. yr BP, and including a warmer and more variable phase between ca. 27 000 and 21 000 cal. yr BP, (2) LGIT between ca. 18000 and 11600cal.yr BP, including a Lateglacial warm period from ca. 14800 to 13500cal.yr BP and a Lateglacial climate reversal between ca. 13500 and 11600cal.yr BP, and (3) Holocene interglacial conditions, with two phases of greatest warmth between ca. 11600 and 10800cal.yr BP and from ca. 6800 to 6500cal.yr BP. Some key boundaries coincide with volcanic tephras. Copyright

  17. Impacts of Evolutionary History on Endangerment in a Changing Climate: Miocene upwelling, Holocene Pluvial Cycles and Endemics at the Mouth of the Colorado River.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, D. K.

    2006-12-01

    The environmental conditions communities experienced during their diversification and recent geologic history informs us as to which environmental changes are most likely to impact species in those communities. Three examples follow: 1) Recent compilation of molecular and paleontological data document that higher aspects of the trophic chain in the Pacific Northwest, including the salmon genus Onchoyrhynchus, alcid birds (Auks & Puffins) and crabs of the genus Cancer speciated dramatically in response to enhanced upwelling of the mid Miocene (Jacobs et al. 2004). Consistent with this evolutionary origin, population dynamics and endangerment of these taxa are associated with the changing productivity regime of the Pacific as well as more direct human impacts. 2) Pluvials in the Eurasian and African continent respond to the precession cycle, as a result wetland habitats were much more expansive in the early and middle Holocene. Late Holocene wetland habitat contraction combines with increasing anthropogenic manipulation of these cyclically limited hydrologic resources to yield a suite of endangered taxa across these continents as is statistically documented by analysis of Redbook data. 3) Our recent work documents the evolution of endemic fish and Molluscan taxa in association with the Colorado River Delta. These endemic taxa are then vulnerable to the to impacts on the Colorado Delta where anthropogenic use of water resources combine with the threat of climate provide combined threats to this ecosystem. The Environmental/Evolutionary history of lineages clearly has strong implications for how anthropogenic changes impacts and endangers those lineages. Jacobs D.K. et al. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 2004. 32:601 52

  18. Holocene environmental change and archaeology, Yangtze River Valley, China: Review and prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Wu

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Holocene environmental change and environmental archaeology are important components of an international project studying the human-earth interaction system. This paper reviews the progress of Holocene environmental change and environmental archaeology research in the Yangtze River Valley over the last three decades, that includes the evolution of large freshwater lakes, Holocene transgression and sea-level changes, Holocene climate change and East Asian monsoon variation, relationship between the rise and fall of primitive civilizations and environmental changes, cultural interruptions and palaeoflood events, as well as relationship between the origin of agriculture and climate change. These research components are underpinned by the dating of lacustrine sediments, stalagmites and peat to establish a chronology of regional environmental and cultural evolution. Interdisciplinary and other environment proxy indicators need to be used in comparative studies of archaeological site formation and natural sedimentary environment in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley. Modern technology such as remote sensing, molecular bioarchaeology, and virtual reality, should be integrated with currently used dating, geochemical, sedimentological, and palaeobotanical methods of analysis in environmental archaeology macro- and micro-studies, so as to provide a greater comprehensive insight into Holocene environmental and cultural interaction and change in the Yangtze River Valley area.

  19. Role of neotectonics and climate in development of the Holocene geomorphology and soils of the Gangetic Plains between the Ramganga and Rapti rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Pankaj; Parkash, B.; Sehgal, J. L.; Kumar, Sudhir

    1994-12-01

    Fifteen soil-geomorphic units have been delineated from the Gangetic Plains between the Ramganga and Rapti rivers. They were identified by remote sensing and field checks. On the basis of degree of profile development, their soils are grouped into five members (QGH1 to QGH5, QGH5 being the oldest) of a soil chrono-association. Tentative ages assigned to QGH1 to QGH5 are 500, > 2500, 8000 and 13,5000 yr B.P., respectively. From the early Holocene to about 6500 yr. B.P. a cold, arid to semi-arid climate prevailed and pedogenic calcrete developed over large areas in the Gangetic Plains. Later, a warm and humid climate and improved drainage resulted in complete removal of calcrete from soil profiles in some areas or its dissolution and re-precipitation in lower horizons in other areas. Neotectonics seems to have played a significant role in the evolution of the geomorphology and soils of the area. It determined areas of active sedimentation, pedogenesis and erosion (in upland regions). It led to tilting and sagging of large blocks resulting in shifting and increase in sinuosity of the rivers. Tectonic slopes/faults determined the courses of large rivers.

  20. Effect of climate changes in the holocene on the distribution of humic substances in the profile of forest-tundra peat mounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasilevich, R. S.; Beznosikov, V. A.

    2017-11-01

    The molecular composition of humic substances in permafrost peatlands of the forest-tundra zone in northeastern European Russia has been characterized for the first time on the basis of systematic studies. Changes in the molar x(H): x(C) ratio along the peat profiles have been revealed, which is due to the activation of cryogenic processes in the upper part of the seasonally thawing layer, the natural selection of condensed humic molecules, and the botanical composition and degree of degradation of peat, which reflect the climatic features of the area in the Holocene. Dry-peat soils of mounds are worse heated during the summer period because of the buffering effect of moss litter, which results in a lower degree of condensation of humic and fulvic acid molecules in the peat horizons down to the permafrost table. Transformation of quantitative and qualitative parameters of specific organic compounds occurs at the permafrost boundary of peatlands, which can serve as an indicator of recent climate changes in high latitudes.

  1. Patterns of megaclasts along the coast of Eastern Samar (Philippines) - Implications for Holocene extreme-wave events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Max; Boesl, Fabian; Narod Eco, Rodrigo; Galang, Jam Albert; Gonzalo, Lia Anne; Llanes, Francesca; Quix, Eva; Schroeder-Ritzrau, Andrea; Frank, Norbert; Mahar Lagmay, Alfredo; Brückner, Helmut

    2017-04-01

    The Eastern Visayas region in the Philippines is hit by some of the most violent tropical cyclones on Earth on a regular basis, exemplified by Typhoon Haiyan, 7-9 November 2013, and a number of other category 4 and 5 events during the last decades. Moreover, strong earthquakes along the Philippine Trench have triggered several tsunamis in the historical past. Coastal flooding through extreme waves associated with these events represents a significant hazard for communities along the eastern coasts of Samar. However, not much is known about frequency-magnitude relationships of coastal flooding events and the maximum magnitude on centennial and millennial scales, which can be derived from geological traces and which have to be considered in a coastal hazard management process. We investigated a large boulder field in Eastern Samar distributed over an elevated, intertidal palaeo-reef platform in order to understand mechanisms of boulder transport and to derive implications for the maximum spatial extent, height, and velocity of coastal flooding. In the field, we recorded location, shape, morphological features as well as length and orientation of the main axes of more than 250 boulders, the a-axes of which were between 1.5 and 10.7 m. Eight samples were taken for Th/U dating of post-depositional, secondary calcite flowstones and pre-depostional coral, and four samples were taken for radiocarbon dating of pre-depositional, sessil organisms attached to the boulders. We 3D-mapped the most important parts of the boulder field using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and created structure-from-motion (SfM) models of the most prominent boulders, which will be used for inverse modelling of transport flows. Samples of the most common coralline lithofacies were taken for density estimations. We used interviews with elders of the local community as well as multi-temporal analysis of satellite images to reconstruct recent flooding patterns and boulder movement during recent events

  2. Past Holocene soil erosion modeling as a new way to decipher human-climate-environment interactions on natural geo-ecosystem over long time-scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonneau, Anaëlle; Di Giovanni, Christian; Chapron, Emmanuel

    2017-04-01

    Soil erosion is a global phenomenon dealing with both environmental, societal and economic issues. Soil erosion is also one of the key processes when it is a matter of Human-climate-environment interactions [1, 2] since if mechanical erosion of continental surfaces initially results from climatic forcing, it can be largely amplified by anthropogenic activities. Using multi-scalar datasets to model long-term (Holocene) erosion fluxes in contrasted areas, where human pressure is well documented by geoarchaeology, we address how landscape evolution, geomorphological processes, ecosystem response and human impacts have been connected over time. Beyond that, such interdisciplinary and integrative approach allow (1) to locally date, qualify, and in particular quantify, both climate variability (rainfall) and impacts of human activities on soils, and (2) to discuss of potential feedback mechanisms and the legacy of past socio-cultural systems on actual geo-ecosystems. Lacustrine sediment represents one of the more relevant natural archives in order to reconstruct environmental or climatic variability and human activities over the past thousand years. Over the last 50 years, the edges of lakes Paladru (low altitude site, 640 m a.s.l.) and Blanc Huez (high-altitude site, 2250 m a.s.l.), both located in Western French Alps and therefore sensitive to the same climatic influences, have been deeply studied by archaeologists who documented and dated periods of enhanced human pressures (agriculture, mining [3, 4]). In these two case-studies, we were therefore able to confront the specific calendars of local human activities with past landscape evolution (vegetation cover, 5) and soil erosion fluxes reconstituted from specific organic tracers quantified into the lacustrine sediments [3, 6]. Results demonstrated that, over the Holocene, climatic forcing, and more particularly glacial fluctuations, influenced human accessibility to high-altitude sites (lake Blanc Huez) and therefore

  3. Understanding the adaptation deficit: why are poor countries more vulnerable to climate events than rich countries?

    OpenAIRE

    Samuel Fankhauser; Thomas K. J. McDermott

    2014-01-01

    Poor countries are more heavily affected by extreme weather events and future climate change than rich countries. This discrepancy is sometimes known as an adaptation deficit. This paper analyses the link between income and adaptation to climate events theoretically and empirically. We postulate that the adaptation deficit is due to two factors: A demand effect, whereby the demand for the good �climate security� increases with income, and an efficiency effect, which works as a spill-over exte...

  4. The relationship between early holocene climate change and neolithic settlement in central Anatolia, Turkey: current issues and prospects for future research:

    OpenAIRE

    Asouti, Eleni

    2009-01-01

    Episodes of global climate change have traditionally been invoked as explanations for settlement re-organisation and socio-economic transformation in the prehistory of the Middle East (e.g., the Neolithic period). By focusing on the 8.2K event, this paper presents a theoretical and methodological argument against the assumption of unilinear, passive responses by prehistoric societies to global climate change, using as a case study datasets recently obtained from the Konya Plain in Central Ana...

  5. Climate Change Extreme Events: Meeting the Information Needs of Water Resource Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quay, R.; Garfin, G. M.; Dominguez, F.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Guido, Z.; White, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    Information about climate has long been used by water managers to develop short term and long term plans and strategies for regional and local water resources. Inherent within longer term forecasts is an element of uncertainty, which is particularly evident in Global Climate model results for precipitation. For example in the southwest estimates in the flow of the Colorado River based on GCM results indicate changes from 120% or current flow to 60%. Many water resource managers are now using global climate model down scaled estimates results as indications of potential climate change as part of that planning. They are addressing the uncertainty within these estimates by using an anticipatory planning approach looking at a range of possible futures. One aspect of climate that is important for such planning are estimates of future extreme storm (short term) and drought (long term) events. However, the climate science of future possible changes in extreme events is less mature than general climate change science. At a recent workshop among climate scientists and water managers in the southwest, it was concluded the science of climate change extreme events is at least a decade away from being robust enough to be useful for water managers in their water resource management activities. However, it was proposed that there are existing estimates and records of past flooding and drought events that could be combined with general climate change science to create possible future events. These derived events could be of sufficient detail to be used by water resource managers until such time that the science of extreme events is able to provide more detailed estimates. Based on the results of this workshop and other work being done by the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest center at University of Arizona., this article will 1) review what are the extreme event data needs of Water Resource Managers in the

  6. Late-Holocene climate evolution at the WAIS Divide site, West Antarctica: Bubble number-density estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fegyveresi, John M.; Alley, R.B.; Spencer, M.K.; Fitzpatrick, J.J.; Steig, E.J.; White, J.W.C.; McConnell, J.R.; Taylor, K.C.

    2011-01-01

    A surface cooling of ???1.7??C occurred over the ???two millennia prior to ???1700 CE at the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) Divide site, based on trends in observed bubble number-density of samples from the WDC06A ice core, and on an independently constructed accumulation-rate history using annual-layer dating corrected for density variations and thinning from ice flow. Density increase and grain growth in polar firn are both controlled by temperature and accumulation rate, and the integrated effects are recorded in the number-density of bubbles as the firn changes to ice. Numberdensity is conserved in bubbly ice following pore close-off, allowing reconstruction of either paleotemperature or paleo-accumulation rate if the other is known. A quantitative late-Holocene paleoclimate reconstruction is presented for West Antarctica using data obtained from the WAIS Divide WDC06A ice core and a steady-state bubble number-density model. The resultant temperature history agrees closely with independent reconstructions based on stable-isotopic ratios of ice. The ???1.7??C cooling trend observed is consistent with a decrease in Antarctic summer duration from changing orbital obliquity, although it remains possible that elevation change at the site contributed part of the signal. Accumulation rate and temperature dropped together, broadly consistent with control by saturation vapor pressure.

  7. Loco or no loco? Holocene climatic fluctuations, human demography and community base management of coastal resources in northern Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Calogero M.; Gayo, Eugenia M.; Carter, Chris; Standen, Vivien G.; Castro, Victoria; Valenzuela, Daniela; De Pol-Holz, Ricardo; Marquet, Pablo A.; Latorre, Claudio

    2017-10-01

    The abundance of the southern Pacific mollusk loco (Concholepas concholepas), among other conspicuous marine supplies, are often cited as critical resources behind the long-term cultural and demographic fluctuations of prehistoric hunter-gatherers at the coastal Atacama Desert. These societies inhabited one of the world’s most productive marine environments flanked by one the world’s driest deserts. Both of these environments have witnessed significant ecological variation since people first colonized them at the end of the Pleistocene (c. 13,000 cal yr BP). Here, we examine the relationship between the relative abundance of shellfish (a staple resource) along a 9,500-year sequence of archaeological shell midden accumulations at Caleta (a small inlet or cove) Vitor, with past demographic trends (established via summed probability distributions of radiocarbon ages) and technological innovations together with paleoceanographic data on past primary productivity. We find that shellfish extraction varied considerably from one cultural period to the next in terms of the number of species and their abundance, with diversity increasing during periods of regionally decreased productivity. Such shifts in consumption patterns are considered community based management decisions, and for the most part they were synchronous with large and unusual regional demographic fluctuations experienced by prehistoric coastal societies in northern Chile. When taken together with their technological innovations, our data illustrates how these human groups tailored their socio-cultural patterns to what were often abrupt and prolonged environmental changes throughout the Holocene.

  8. Loco or no Loco? Holocene Climatic Fluctuations, Human Demography, and Community Based Management of Coastal Resources in Northern Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Calogero M. Santoro

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The abundance of the southern Pacific mollusk loco (Concholepas concholepas, among other conspicuous marine supplies, are often cited as critical resources behind the long-term cultural and demographic fluctuations of prehistoric hunter-gatherers in the coastal Atacama Desert. These societies inhabited one of the world's most productive marine environments flanked by one the world's driest deserts. Both of these environments have witnessed significant ecological variation since people first colonized them at the end of the Pleistocene (c. 13,000 cal yr BP. Here, we examine the relationship between the relative abundance of shellfish (a staple resource along a 9,500-year sequence of archeological shell midden accumulations at Caleta (a small inlet or cove Vitor, with past demographic trends (established via summed probability distributions of radiocarbon ages and technological innovations together with paleoceanographic data on past primary productivity. We find that shellfish extraction varied considerably from one cultural period to the next in terms of the number of species and their abundance, with diversity increasing during periods of regionally decreased productivity. Such shifts in consumption patterns are considered community based management decisions, and for the most part they were synchronous with large and unusual regional demographic fluctuations experienced by prehistoric coastal societies in northern Chile. When taken together with their technological innovations, our data illustrates how these human groups tailored their socio-cultural patterns to what were often abrupt and prolonged environmental changes throughout the Holocene.

  9. Mid-Holocene palaeoflood events recorded at the Zhongqiao Neolithic cultural site in the Jianghan Plain, middle Yangtze River Valley, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Li; Zhu, Cheng; Ma, Chunmei; Li, Feng; Meng, Huaping; Liu, Hui; Li, Linying; Wang, Xiaocui; Sun, Wei; Song, Yougui

    2017-10-01

    Palaeo-hydrological and archaeological investigations were carried out in the Jianghan Plain in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Based on a comparative analysis of modern flood sediments and multidisciplinary approaches such as AMS14C and archaeological dating, zircon micromorphology, grain size, magnetic susceptibility, and geochemistry, we identified palaeoflood sediments preserved at the Zhongqiao archaeological site. The results indicate that three palaeoflood events (i.e. 4800-4597, 4479-4367, and 4168-3850 cal. yr BP) occurred at the Zhongqiao Site. Comparisons of palaeoflood deposit layers at a number of Neolithic cultural sites show that two extraordinary palaeoflood events occurred in the Jianghan Plain during approximately 4900-4600 cal. yr BP (i.e.mid-late Qujialing cultural period) and 4100-3800 cal. yr BP (i.e. from late Shijiahe cultural period to the Xia Dynasty). Further analysis of the environmental context suggests that these flooding events might have been connected with great climate variability during approximately 5000-4500 cal. yr BP and at ca. 4000 cal. yr BP. These two palaeoflood events were closely related to the expansion of the Jianghan lakes driven by the climatic change, which in turn influenced the rise and fall of the Neolithic cultures in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Other evidence also suggests that the intensified discrepancy between social development and environmental change processes (especially the hydrological process) during the late Shijiahe cultural period might be the key factor causing the collapse of the Shijiahe Culture. The extraordinary floods related to the climatic anomaly at ca. 4000 cal. yr BP and political conflicts from internal or other cultural areas all accelerated the collapse of the Shijiahe Culture.

  10. 8000-year monsoonal record from Himalaya revealing reinforcement of tropical and global climate systems since mid-Holocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Pradeep; Agnihotri, Rajesh; Sharma, Deepti; Meena, Narendra; Sundriyal, Y P; Saxena, Anju; Bhushan, Ravi; Sawlani, R; Banerji, Upasana S; Sharma, C; Bisht, P; Rana, N; Jayangondaperumal, R

    2017-11-06

    We provide the first continuous Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) climate record for the higher Himalayas (Kedarnath, India) by analyzing a 14 C-dated peat sequence covering the last ~8000 years, with ~50 years temporal resolution. The ISM variability inferred using various proxies reveal striking similarity with the Greenland ice core (GISP2) temperature record and rapid denitrification changes recorded in the sediments off Peru. The Kedarnath record provides compelling evidence for a reorganization of the global climate system taking place at ~5.5 ka BP possibly after sea level stabilization and the advent of inter-annual climate variability governed by the modern ENSO phenomenon. The ISM record also captures warm-wet and cold-dry conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, respectively.

  11. Molecules in the mud: Combining ancient DNA and lipid biomarkers to reconstruct vegetation response to climate variability during the Last Interglacial and the Holocene on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crump, S. E.; Sepúlveda, J.; Bunce, M.; Miller, G. H.

    2017-12-01

    Modern ecological studies are revealing that the "greening" of the Arctic, resulting from a poleward shift in woody vegetation ranges, is already underway. The increasing abundance of shrubs in tundra ecosystems plays an important role in the global climate system through multiple positive feedbacks, yet uncertainty in future predictions of terrestrial vegetation means that climate models are likely not capturing these feedbacks accurately. Recently developed molecular techniques for reconstructing past vegetation and climate allow for a closer look at the paleo-record in order to improve our understanding of tundra community responses to climate variability; our current research focus is to apply these tools to both Last Interglacial and Holocene warm times. Here we present initial results from a small lake on southern Baffin Island spanning the last 7.2 ka. We reconstruct climate with both bulk geochemical and biomarker proxies, primarily using biogenic silica and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) as temperature indicators. We assess shifts in plant community using multivariate analysis of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding data. This combination of approaches reveals that the vegetation community has responded sensitively to early Holocene warmth, Neoglacial cooling, and possibly modern anthropogenic warming. To our knowledge, this represents the first combination of a quantitative, biomarker-based climate reconstruction with a sedaDNA-based paleoecological reconstruction, and offers a glimpse at the potential of these molecular techniques used in tandem.

  12. Helpful and Hindering Multicultural Events in Group Supervision: Climate and Multicultural Competence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaduvettoor, Anju; O'Shaughnessy, Tiffany; Mori, Yoko; Beverly, Clyde, III; Weatherford, Ryan D.; Ladany, Nicholas

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between multicultural events in group supervision, group climate, and supervisee multicultural competence using a mixed qualitative/quantitative design. The discovery-oriented approach yielded 196 helpful and hindering multicultural events among 136 participants. The most common events included multicultural…

  13. Multi-Decadal to Millennial Scale Holocene Hydrologic Variation in the Southern Hemisphere Tropics of South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekdahl, E. J.; Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Burns, S. J.; Coley, K.; Rigsby, C. A.

    2005-12-01

    Numerous sites in the Northern Hemisphere show multi-decadal to millennial scale climate variation during the Holocene, many of which have been correlated with changes in atmospheric radiocarbon production or with changes in North Atlantic oceanic circulation. The manifestation of such climate variability in the hydrology of the Southern Hemisphere tropics of South America is unclear, because of the limited number of records at suitably high resolution. In the Lake Titicaca drainage basin of Bolivia and Peru, high-resolution lacustrine records reveal the overall pattern of Holocene lake-level change, the influence of precessional forcing of the South American Summer Monsoon, and the effects of high-frequency climate variability in records of lake productivity and lake ecology. Precessional forcing of regional precipitation is evident in the Lake Titicaca basin as a massive (ca. 85 m) mid-Holocene decline in lake level beginning about 7800 cal yr BP and a subsequent rise in lake level after 4000 cal yr BP. Here we show that multi-decadal to millennial-scale climate variability, superimposed upon the envelope of change at orbital time scales, is similar in timing and pattern to the ice-rafted debris record of Holocene Bond events in the North Atlantic. A high-resolution carbon isotopic record from Lake Titicaca that spans the entire Holocene suggests that cold intervals of Holocene Bond events are periods of increased precipitation, thus indicating an anti-phasing of precipitation variation on the Altiplano relative to the Northern Hemisphere tropics. A similar pattern of variation is also evident in high-resolution (2-30 yr spacing) diatom and geochemical records that span the last 7000 yr from two smaller lakes, Lagos Umayo and Lagunillas, in the Lake Titicaca drainage basin.

  14. Communicating Climate Uncertainties: Challenges and Opportunities Related to Spatial Scales, Extreme Events, and the Warming 'Hiatus'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casola, J. H.; Huber, D.

    2013-12-01

    Many media, academic, government, and advocacy organizations have achieved sophistication in developing effective messages based on scientific information, and can quickly translate salient aspects of emerging climate research and evolving observations. However, there are several ways in which valid messages can be misconstrued by decision makers, leading them to inaccurate conclusions about the risks associated with climate impacts. Three cases will be discussed: 1) Issues of spatial scale in interpreting climate observations: Local climate observations may contradict summary statements about the effects of climate change on larger regional or global spatial scales. Effectively addressing these differences often requires communicators to understand local and regional climate drivers, and the distinction between a 'signal' associated with climate change and local climate 'noise.' Hydrological statistics in Missouri and California are shown to illustrate this case. 2) Issues of complexity related to extreme events: Climate change is typically invoked following a wide range of damaging meteorological events (e.g., heat waves, landfalling hurricanes, tornadoes), regardless of the strength of the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency or severity of that type of event. Examples are drawn from media coverage of several recent events, contrasting useful and potentially confusing word choices and frames. 3) Issues revolving around climate sensitivity: The so-called 'pause' or 'hiatus' in global warming has reverberated strongly through political and business discussions of climate change. Addressing the recent slowdown in warming yields an important opportunity to raise climate literacy in these communities. Attempts to use recent observations as a wedge between climate 'believers' and 'deniers' is likely to be counterproductive. Examples are drawn from Congressional testimony and media stories. All three cases illustrate ways that decision

  15. Evaluation of PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations of mid-Holocene climate in the Indo-Pacific, Australasian and Southern Ocean regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Ackerley

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This study uses the simplified patterns of temperature and effective precipitation approach from the Australian component of the international palaeoclimate synthesis effort (INTegration of Ice core, MArine and TErrestrial records – OZ-INTIMATE to compare atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM simulations and proxy reconstructions. The approach is used in order to identify important properties (e.g. circulation and precipitation of past climatic states from the models and proxies, which is a primary objective of the Southern Hemisphere Assessment of PalaeoEnvironment (SHAPE initiative. The AOGCM data are taken from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP mid-Holocene (ca. 6000 years before present, 6 ka and pre-industrial control (ca. 1750 CE, 0 ka experiments. The synthesis presented here shows that the models and proxies agree on the differences in climate state for 6 ka relative to 0 ka, when they are insolation driven. The largest uncertainty between the models and the proxies occurs over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP. The analysis shows that the lower temperatures in the Pacific at around 6 ka in the models may be the result of an enhancement of an existing systematic error. It is therefore difficult to decipher which one of the proxies and/or the models is correct. This study also shows that a reduction in the Equator-to-pole temperature difference in the Southern Hemisphere causes the mid-latitude westerly wind strength to reduce in the models; however, the simulated rainfall actually increases over the southern temperate zone of Australia as a result of higher convective precipitation. Such a mechanism (increased convection may be useful for resolving disparities between different regional proxy records and model simulations. Finally, after assessing the available datasets (model and proxy, opportunities for better model–proxy integrated research are discussed.

  16. Evaluation of PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations of mid-Holocene climate in the Indo-Pacific, Australasian and Southern Ocean regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerley, Duncan; Reeves, Jessica; Barr, Cameron; Bostock, Helen; Fitzsimmons, Kathryn; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn; Gouramanis, Chris; McGregor, Helen; Mooney, Scott; Phipps, Steven J.; Tibby, John; Tyler, Jonathan

    2017-11-01

    This study uses the simplified patterns of temperature and effective precipitation approach from the Australian component of the international palaeoclimate synthesis effort (INTegration of Ice core, MArine and TErrestrial records - OZ-INTIMATE) to compare atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations and proxy reconstructions. The approach is used in order to identify important properties (e.g. circulation and precipitation) of past climatic states from the models and proxies, which is a primary objective of the Southern Hemisphere Assessment of PalaeoEnvironment (SHAPE) initiative. The AOGCM data are taken from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) mid-Holocene (ca. 6000 years before present, 6 ka) and pre-industrial control (ca. 1750 CE, 0 ka) experiments. The synthesis presented here shows that the models and proxies agree on the differences in climate state for 6 ka relative to 0 ka, when they are insolation driven. The largest uncertainty between the models and the proxies occurs over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP). The analysis shows that the lower temperatures in the Pacific at around 6 ka in the models may be the result of an enhancement of an existing systematic error. It is therefore difficult to decipher which one of the proxies and/or the models is correct. This study also shows that a reduction in the Equator-to-pole temperature difference in the Southern Hemisphere causes the mid-latitude westerly wind strength to reduce in the models; however, the simulated rainfall actually increases over the southern temperate zone of Australia as a result of higher convective precipitation. Such a mechanism (increased convection) may be useful for resolving disparities between different regional proxy records and model simulations. Finally, after assessing the available datasets (model and proxy), opportunities for better model-proxy integrated research are discussed.

  17. Mid- to late Holocene climate-driven regime shifts inferred from diatom, ostracod and stable isotope records from Lake Son Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Anja; Turner, Falko; Lauterbach, Stefan; Plessen, Birgit; Krahn, Kim J.; Glodniok, Sven; Mischke, Steffen; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman; Mingram, Jens; Schwalb, Antje

    2017-12-01

    Arid Central Asia represents a key region for understanding climate variability and interactions in the Northern Hemisphere. Patterns and mechanisms of Holocene climate change in arid Central Asia are, however, only partially understood. Multi-proxy data combining diatom, ostracod, sedimentological, geochemical and stable isotope analyses from a ca. 6000-year-old lake sediment core from Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) show distinct and repeated changes in species assemblages. Diatom- and ostracod-inferred conductivity shifts between meso-euhaline and freshwater conditions suggest water balance and regime shifts. Organism-derived data are corroborated by stable isotope, mineralogical and geochemical records, underlining that Son Kol was affected by strong lake level fluctuations of several meters. The δ13Ccarb/δ18Ocarb correlation shows repeated switchovers from a closed to an open lake system. From 6000 to 3800 and 3250 to 1950 cal. yr BP, Son Kol was a closed basin lake with higher conductivities, increased nutrient availability and a water level located below the modern outflow. Son Kol became again a hydrologically open lake at 3800 and 1950 cal. yr BP. Comparisons to other local and regional paleoclimate records indicate that these regime shifts were largely controlled by changing intensity and position of the Westerlies and the Siberian Anticyclone that triggered changes in the amount of winter precipitation. A strong influence of the Westerlies ca. 5000-4400, 3800-3250 and since 1950 cal. yr BP enhanced the amount of precipitation during spring, autumn and winter, whereas cold and dry winters prevailed during phases with a strong Siberian Anticyclone and southward shifted Westerlies at ca. 6000-5000, 4400-3800 and 3250-1950 cal. yr BP. Similarities between variations in winter precipitation at Son Kol and records of the predominant NAO-mode further suggest a teleconnection between wet (dry) winter climate in Central Asia and a positive (negative) NAO

  18. Mid-Holocene onset of high-amplitude decadal to centennial scale variability along the Peru Chile Margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chazen, C. R.; Altabet, M.; Herbert, T. D.

    2008-12-01

    Understanding the natural climate variations in the eastern tropical Pacific is crucial for predicting the evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system and for anticipating the ways in which increases in atmospheric CO2 will affect climate. Here we present the first continuous, high-resolution (11-12 yr) climate record across the mid-Holocene transition (10ka-1.4ka) from the Peru-Chile Margin near the epicenter of the modern ENSO system. Although the high productivity of the Peru margin should promote high deposition rates, and the anaerobic bottom water conditions should inhibit sediment mixing by benthic organisms, nearly all sediment cores recovered from this region suffer from major gaps in Holocene sedimentation. Our data comes from a ~5 meter piston core collected from the mid-Peruvian shelf (15° 15"S, 75° 58"W, ~250mwd) in the heart of the oxygen minimum/denitrification zone that provides the first uninterrupted archive of conditions along the Peru-Chile margin. A suite of geochemical proxies allow us to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST- Uk'37), phytoplankton productivity (C37total and %BSi), and thermocline ventilation (δ15N), variables that are tightly correlated to ENSO events today. Despite the observation that the mean late Holocene state of all three variables did not change over the last 10,000 years, our data reveal a dramatic increase in climate variability after the mid Holocene (~5ka); represented by prolonged periods (50-200yrs) of climate extremes, which are absent in the early Holocene. To further investigate these climate extremes we examine benthic foraminiferal assemblages and oxygen isotopes in combination with our other proxy records in selected late Holocene sections. The roughly centennial-scale oscillations do not show typical El Niño-La Niña correlations between proxies. We therefore posit that a significant fraction of super-ENSO variance during the course of the Holocene may originate outside the tropics

  19. Simulating the Holocene climate evolution at northern high latitudes using a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renssen, H.; Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T.; Brovkin, V.; Driesschaert, E.; Wolk, F.

    2005-01-01

    The response of the climate at high northern latitudes to slowly changing external forcings was studied in a 9,000-year long simulation with the coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE. Only long-term changes in insolation and atmospheric CO

  20. Human-environment interaction during the Mesolithic- Neolithic transition in the NE Iberian Peninsula. Vegetation history, climate change and human impact during the Early-Middle Holocene in the Eastern Pre-Pyrenees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revelles, J.; Burjachs, F.; Palomo, A.; Piqué, R.; Iriarte, E.; Pérez-Obiol, R.; Terradas, X.

    2018-03-01

    The synthetic analysis of several pollen records from sub-Mediterranean lowland Pre-Pyrenean regions evidences expansion of forests during the Early Holocene in Northeastern Iberia and the establishment of dense deciduous broadleaf forests during the Holocene Climate Optimum. Pollen records show the broadleaf deciduous forests resilience against cooling phases during the Mid-Holocene period, with slight regressions of oak woodlands and expansion of conifers or xerophytic taxa contemporary to some cooling episodes (i.e. 8.2 and 7.2 kyr cal. BP). Major vegetation changes influenced by climate change occurred in the transition to the Late Holocene, in terms of the start of a succession from broadleaf deciduous forests to evergreen sclerophyllous woodlands. The lack of evidence of previous occupation seems to support the Neolithisation of the NE Iberian Peninsula as a result of a process of migration of farming populations to uninhabited or sparsely inhabited territories. In that context, remarkable changes in vegetation were recorded from 7.3 kyr cal. BP onwards in the Lake Banyoles area, where the establishment of permanent farming settlements caused the deforestation of oak woodlands. In La Garrotxa region, short deforestation episodes affecting broadleaf deciduous forests, together with expansion of grasslands and presence of Cerealia-t were documented in the period 7.4-6.0 kyr cal. BP. Finally, in the coastal area, where less evidence of Early Neolithic occupations is recorded, evidence of Neolithic impact is reflected in the presence of Cerealia-t in 6.5-6.2 kyr cal. BP, but no strong human transformation of landscape was carried out until more recent chronologies.

  1. A role for icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiersma, A.P.; Jongma, J.I.

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the potential role of icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event, using a coupled climate model equipped with an iceberg component. First, we evaluate the effect of a large iceberg discharge originating from the decaying Laurentide ice sheet on ocean circulation, compared to a release of an

  2. Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events : Challenges and directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van de Pol, Martijn; Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Cornelissen, Johannes H.C.; Visser, Marcel E.

    2017-01-01

    More extreme climatic events (ECEs) are among the most prominent consequences of climate change. Despite a long-standing recognition of the importance of ECEs by paleo-ecologists and macro-evolutionary biologists, ECEs have only recently received a strong interest in the wider ecological and

  3. The relationship between Early Holocene climate change and Neolithic settlement in central Anatolia, Turkey: current issues and prospects for future research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleni Asouti

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Episodes of global climate change have traditionally been invoked as explanations for settlement re-organisation and socio-economic transformation in the prehistory of the Middle East (e.g., the Neolithic period. By focusing on the 8.2K event, this paper presents a theoretical and methodological argument against the assumption of unilinear, passive responses by prehistoric societies to global climate change, using as a case study datasets recently obtained from the Konya Plain in Central Anatolia, Turkey.

  4. Integrating the EMPD with an Alpine altitudinal training set to reconstruct climate variables in Holocene pollen records from high-altitude peat bogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlanetto, Giulia; Badino, Federica; Brunetti, Michele; Champvillair, Elena; De Amicis, Mattia; Maggi, Valter; Pini, Roberta; Ravazzi, Cesare; Vallé, Francesca

    2016-04-01

    ., 2014), starting from a dense and quality-controlled observational dataset. In the most advanced step, we designed calibration functions using modern pollen and climate data stored in the EMPD and integrated with the 27 samples from the altitudinal training set. Regression and calibration method (LWWA) and MAT (Modern Analogue Technique) were used to reconstruct temperatures and precipitation. We applied the models to our fossil site to infer temperatures of the coldest (Tjan) and warmest (Tjul) months and the mean annual precipitation (Pann). Finally we compared our results with established climate proxy records (oxygen isotope records from ice cores, records of Alpine Glaciers fluctuations, stalagmites). This research is promoted by the CNR-DTA NextData Project. Brunetti et al., 2014. International Journal of Climatology 34, 1278-1296. Cañellas-Boltà et al., 2009. The Holocene 19(8), 1185-1200. Davis et al., 2013. Vegetation History and Archaeobotany 22, 521-530.

  5. A composite pollen-based stratotype for inter-regional evaluation of climatic events in New Zealand over the past 30,000 years (NZ-INTIMATE project)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrell, David J. A.; Almond, Peter C.; Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Lowe, David J.; Newnham, Rewi M.

    2013-08-01

    Our review of paleoclimate information for New Zealand pertaining to the past 30,000 years has identified a general sequence of climatic events, spanning the onset of cold conditions marking the final phase of the Last Glaciation, through to the emergence to full interglacial conditions in the early Holocene. In order to facilitate more detailed assessments of climate variability and any leads or lags in the timing of climate changes across the region, a composite stratotype is proposed for New Zealand. The stratotype is based on terrestrial stratigraphic records and is intended to provide a standard reference for the intercomparison and evaluation of climate proxy records. We nominate a specific stratigraphic type record for each climatic event, using either natural exposure or drill core stratigraphic sections. Type records were selected on the basis of having very good numerical age control and a clear proxy record. In all cases the main proxy of the type record is subfossil pollen. The type record for the period from ca 30 to ca 18 calendar kiloyears BP (cal. ka BP) is designated in lake-bed sediments from a small morainic kettle lake (Galway tarn) in western South Island. The Galway tarn type record spans a period of full glacial conditions (Last Glacial Coldest Period, LGCP) within the Otira Glaciation, and includes three cold stadials separated by two cool interstadials. The type record for the emergence from glacial conditions following the termination of the Last Glaciation (post-Termination amelioration) is in a core of lake sediments from a maar (Pukaki volcanic crater) in Auckland, northern North Island, and spans from ca 18 to 15.64 ± 0.41 cal. ka BP. The type record for the Lateglacial period is an exposure of interbedded peat and mud at montane Kaipo bog, eastern North Island. In this high-resolution type record, an initial mild period was succeeded at 13.74 ± 0.13 cal. ka BP by a cooler period, which after 12.55 ± 0.14 cal. ka BP gave way to a

  6. Early-Holocene decoupled summer temperature and monsoon precipitation in southwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, D.; Chen, F.; Chen, X.; Lv, F.; Zhou, A.; Chen, J.; Abbott, M. B.; Yu, J.

    2017-12-01

    Proxy based reconstructions of Holocene temperature have shown that both the timing and magnitude of the thermal maximum vary substantially between different regions; the simulations results from climate models also show that summers were substantially cooler over regions directly influenced by the presence of the Laurentide ice sheet during the early Holocene, whereas other regions of the Northern Hemisphere were dominated by orbital forcing. However, for lack of summer temperature reconstruction in the low latitude regions like southwestern China dominated by the Indian summer monsoon, the Holocene summer temperature variations and it underlying forcing mechanism are ambiguous. Here we present a well-dated record of pollen-based quantitative summer temperature (mean July; MJT) over the last 14000 years from Xingyun Lake, Yunnan Province, southwest China. It was found that MJT decreased during the YD event, then increased slowly until 7400 yr BP, and decreased thereafter. The MJT shows a pattern with middle Holocene maximum of MJT, indicating a different changing pattern with the carbonate oxygen isotope record (d18O) from the same core during the early Holocene (11500-7400 yr BP), which has the similar variation with speleothem d18O record from Dongge cave, both indicate the variation of monsoon precipitation with the highest precipitation occurred during the early Holocene. Therefore, we propose that the variation of summer temperature and precipitation in southwest China was decoupled during the early Holocene. However, both MJT and monsoon precipitation decreased after the middle Holocene following the boreal summer insolation. We suggest that the high precipitation with strong summer monsoon and hence higher cloud cover may depress the temperature increasing forced by increasing summer insolation during the early Holocene; while melting ice-sheet in the high latitude regions had strongly influenced the summer temperature increase during the deglacial period

  7. Southern westerly winds: a pacemaker of Holocene glacial fluctuations in Patagonia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagredo, E. A.; Reynhout, S.; Kaplan, M. R.; Patricio, M. I.; Aravena, J. C.; Martini, M. A.; Schaefer, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    A well-resolved glacial chronology is crucial to compare sequences of glacial/climate events within and between regions, and thus, to unravel mechanisms underlying past climate changes. Important efforts have been made towards understanding the Holocene climate evolution of the Southern Andes; however, the timing, patterns and causes of glacial fluctuations during this period still remain elusive. Recent advances in terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating, together with the establishment of a Patagonian 10Be production rate, have opened new possibilities for establishing high-resolution glacial chronologies at centennial/decadal scale. Here we present a 10Be surface exposure chronology of fluctuations of a small, climate-sensitive mountain glacier at Mt. Fitz Roy area (49.3°S), spanning from the last glacial termination to the present. Thirty new 10Be ages show glacial advances and moraine building events at 17.1±0.9 ka, 13.5±0.5 ka, 10.2±0.7 ka or 9.9±0.5 ka, 6.9±0.2 ka, 6.1±0.3 ka, 4.5±0.2 ka and 0.5±0.1 ka. Similar to the pattern observed in New Zealand, this sequence features progressively less extensive glacial advances during the late-glacial and early Holocene, followed by advances of roughly similar extent during the mid- to late-Holocene. We suggest that while the magnitude of Holocene glacial fluctuations in Patagonia is modulated by SH summer insolation ("modulator"), the specific timing of these glacial events is influenced by centennial-scale shifts of the Southern Westerly Winds ("pacemaker").

  8. Characterising Late-Holocene glacier variability in the southern tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromley, G.; Winckler, G.; Hall, B. L.; Schaefer, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    Accurate resolution of both the timing and magnitude of Late-Holocene climate events, such as the Little Ice Age, is vital in order to test different hypotheses for the causes and propagation of such climate variability. However, in contrast to higher latitudes, well-dated records from the tropics are relatively rare and the overall climatic structure of the last millennium remains unresolved. Much of this uncertainty stems from difficulties associated with radiocarbon dating in these dry, often high-altitude environments, a situation that now is being addressed through the application and refinement of cosmogenic surface-exposure methods. We present detailed Late-Holocene moraine records, resolved with radiocarbon and surface-exposure dating, from sites across the Andes of southern Peru. Specifically, we describe glacial records from both the arid Western Cordillera, where glaciation is limited by moisture availability, and the humid Eastern Cordillera, where ablation is controlled primarily by air temperature. In both locations, the most recent advance is marked by two to three unweathered terminal moraines located several hundred metres beyond the modern ice margins. Our chronology indicates that, while the advance occurred broadly in step with the classic 'Little Ice Age', the maximum glacial extent in southern Peru was achieved relatively early on and that the 18th and 19th centuries were dominated by glacier retreat. In a broader temporal context, our data also confirm that, in contrast to northern temperate latitudes, the event in southern Peru was the most recent significant interruption in a progressive Holocene retreat. The consistency in glacier response between the different climate zones suggests (i) that this pattern of Late-Holocene climate variability was of at least regional extent and (ii) that temperature fluctuations were the primary driving mechanism.

  9. Impact of climate change on heavy precipitation events of the Mediterranean basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ricard, D.; Beaulant, A.L.; Deque, M.; Ducrocq, V.; Joly, A.; Joly, B.; Martin, E.; Nuissier, O.; Quintana Segui, P.; Ribes, A.; Sevault, F.; Somot, S.; Boe, J.

    2009-01-01

    A second topic covered by the CYPRIM project aims to characterize the evolution of heavy precipitation events in Mediterranean in the context of climate change. To this end, a continuous climate simulation from 1960 to 2099 has been run using a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model under IPCC A2 emission scenario. Various techniques of down-scaling, down to the very fine 2 km scale, and methods to highlight synoptic environments favourable to heavy rain, have been used to estimate the impact of climate change on precipitation and hydrology over South-East France, both for the whole autumn season and the heavy rain events. (authors)

  10. Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 2 (2014), s. 473-483 ISSN 1561-8633 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : weather extreme * climate extreme * extremity evaluation * return period * generalized extreme value distribution * region of influence Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.735, year: 2014 http://www.nat-hazards- earth -syst-sci.net/14/473/2014/nhess-14-473-2014.pdf

  11. Palynological Investigation of the Holocene Thermal Optimum in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newnham, R. M.; McGlone, M. S.; Wilmshurst, J. M.

    2005-12-01

    It has long been assumed in New Zealand (NZ) that the Holocene Thermal Optimum (HTO) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene. Nearly 40 years ago, Hendy and Wilson pioneered the use of 18O/16O composition of calcite in NZ speleothems to reconstruct past climate and in so doing showed an HTO occurring earlier in NZ than in comparable Northern Hemisphere records (Hendy & Wilson,1968). More recent work on NZ speleothems (Williams et al., 2005) corroborates the concept of an early HTO dated between ca 11.7 and 10.6 ka, but there is no definitive description of the event as a NZ-wide phenomenon, no intensive dating of it, nor temperature quantification. Moreover, there is no firm conclusion as to whether it is registered consistently between different proxies and across NZ regions. Until recently, attempts to quantify past climate change from NZ pollen data have been hindered by failure to demonstrate robust relationships between modern pollen assemblages and climate due, it is thought, to strong anthropogenic modification of natural vegetation patterns and steep climatic gradients (Norton et al., 1986). However, as deforestation commenced only ca 700 years ago, and is unambiguously detected in pollen records from throughout NZ, an almost unique opportunity exists to develop pollen-climate transfer functions using pre-human pollen-vegetation sources. McGlone and Wilmshurst have assembled an extensive (138-site) `modern' pollen database, based on ca 700 yr BP pre-deforestation pollen assemblages from peat and lake cores. This now provides a basis for more secure pollen-climate reconstruction than hitherto has been possible. Statistical modelling of the environmental determinants of patterns in the pre-deforestation pollen database indicates the strongest relationship (r2 > 0.8) is with Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) and suggests that this parameter can be reliably reconstructed, with error estimates, from Late Quaternary NZ pollen profiles. We use this database to

  12. Ancestral genetic diversity associated with the rapid spread of stress-tolerant coral symbionts in response to Holocene climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Hume, Benjamin C. C.

    2016-04-05

    Coral communities in the Persian/Arabian Gulf (PAG) withstand unusually high salinity levels and regular summer temperature maxima of up to ∼35 °C that kill conspecifics elsewhere. Due to the recent formation of the PAG and its subsequent shift to a hot climate, these corals have had only <6, 000 y to adapt to these extreme conditions and can therefore inform on how coral reefs may respond to global warming. One key to coral survival in the world\\'s warmest reefs are symbioses with a newly discovered alga, Symbiodinium thermophilum. Currently, it is unknown whether this symbiont originated elsewhere or emerged from unexpectedly fast evolution catalyzed by the extreme environment. Analyzing genetic diversity of symbiotic algae across >5, 000 km of the PAG, the Gulf of Oman, and the Red Sea coastline, we show that S. thermophilum is a member of a highly diverse, ancient group of symbionts cryptically distributed outside the PAG. We argue that the adjustment to temperature extremes by PAG corals was facilitated by the positive selection of preadapted symbionts. Our findings suggest that maintaining the largest possible pool of potentially stress-tolerant genotypes by protecting existing biodiversity is crucial to promote rapid adaptation to present-day climate change, not only for coral reefs, but for ecosystems in general.

  13. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts ...

  14. Heat export from the tropics drives mid to late Holocene palaeoceanographic changes offshore southern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perner, Kerstin; Moros, Matthias; De Deckker, Patrick; Blanz, Thomas; Wacker, Lukas; Telford, Richard; Siegel, Herbert; Schneider, Ralph; Jansen, Eystein

    2018-01-01

    The Leeuwin Current (LC), an eastern boundary current, transports tropical waters from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) towards southern latitudes and modulates oceanic conditions offshore southern Australia. New, high-resolution planktic foraminifer assemblage data and alkenone-derived sea surface temperatures (SST) provide an in-depth view on LC variability and mechanisms driving the current's properties during the mid to late Holocene (last c. 7.4 ka BP). Our marine reconstructions highlight a longer-term mid to late Holocene reduction of tropical heat export from the IPWP area into the LC. Mid Holocene (c. 7.4 to 3.5 ka BP) occurrence of high SSTs (>19.5 °C), tropical planktic foraminifera and a well-stratified water column document an enhanced heat export from the tropics. From c. 3.5 ka BP onwards, a weaker LC and a notably reduced tropical heat export cause oceanic cooling offshore southern Australia. The observed mid to late Holocene trends likely result from large-scale changes in the IPWP's heat storage linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. We propose that a strong and warm LC occurs in response to a La Niña-like state of ENSO during the mid Holocene. The late Holocene LC cooling, however, results from a shift towards an El Niño-like state and a more variable ENSO system that causes cooling of the IPWP. Superimposed on these longer-term trends we find evidence of distinct late Holocene millennial-scale phases of enhanced El Niño/La Niña development, which appear synchronous with northern hemispheric climatic variability. Phases of dominant El Niño-like states occur parallel to North Atlantic cold phases: the '2800 years BP cooling event', the 'Dark Ages' and the 'Little Ice Age', whereas the 'Roman Warm Period' and the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly' parallel periods of a predominant La Niña-like state. Our findings provide further evidence of coherent interhemispheric climatic and oceanic conditions during the mid to late

  15. Impact of Late Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic activities on Biscayne Bay (Florida, U.S.A.): evidence from diatoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wachnicka, Anna; Gaiser, Evelyn; Wingard, Lynn; Briceño, Henry; Harlem, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Shallow marine ecosystems are experiencing significant environmental alterations as a result of changing climate and increasing human activities along coasts. Intensive urbanization of the southeast Florida coast and intensification of climate change over the last few centuries changed the character of coastal ecosystems in the semi-enclosed Biscayne Bay, Florida. In order to develop management policies for the Bay, it is vital to obtain reliable scientific evidence of past ecological conditions. The long-term records of subfossil diatoms obtained from No Name Bank and Featherbed Bank in the Central Biscayne Bay, and from the Card Sound Bank in the neighboring Card Sound, were used to study the magnitude of the environmental change caused by climate variability and water management over the last ~ 600 yr. Analyses of these records revealed that the major shifts in the diatom assemblage structures at No Name Bank occurred in 1956, at Featherbed Bank in 1966, and at Card Sound Bank in 1957. Smaller magnitude shifts were also recorded at Featherbed Bank in 1893, 1942, 1974 and 1983. Most of these changes coincided with severe drought periods that developed during the cold phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), or when AMO was in warm phase and PDO was in the cold phase. Only the 1983 change coincided with an unusually wet period that developed during the warm phases of ENSO and PDO. Quantitative reconstructions of salinity using the weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) diatom-based salinity model revealed a gradual increase in salinity at the three coring locations over the last ~ 600 yr, which was primarily caused by continuously rising sea level and in the last several decades also by the reduction of the amount of freshwater inflow from the mainland. Concentration of sediment total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) increased in the

  16. Changes in the probability of co-occurring extreme climate events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and severe storms exert acute stresses on natural and human systems. When multiple extreme events co-occur, either in space or time, the impacts can be substantially compounded. A diverse set of human interests - including supply chains, agricultural commodities markets, reinsurance, and deployment of humanitarian aid - have historically relied on the rarity of extreme events to provide a geographic hedge against the compounded impacts of co-occuring extremes. However, changes in the frequency of extreme events in recent decades imply that the probability of co-occuring extremes is also changing, and is likely to continue to change in the future in response to additional global warming. This presentation will review the evidence for historical changes in extreme climate events and the response of extreme events to continued global warming, and will provide some perspective on methods for quantifying changes in the probability of co-occurring extremes in the past and future.

  17. Methodology for featuring and assessing extreme climatic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malleron, N.; Bernardara, P.; Benoit, M.; Parey, S.; Perret, C.

    2013-01-01

    The setting up of a nuclear power plant on a particular site requires the assessment of risks linked to extreme natural events like flooding or earthquakes. As a consequence of the Fukushima accident EDF proposes to take into account even rarer events in order to improve the robustness of the facility all over its operating life. This article presents the methodology used by EDF to analyse a set of data in a statistical way in order to extract extreme values. This analysis is based on the theory of extreme values and is applied to the extreme values of the flow rate in the case of a river overflowing. This methodology is made of 6 steps: 1) selection of the event, of its featuring parameter and of its probability, for instance the question is what is the flow rate of a flooding that has a probability of 10 -3 to happen, 2) to collect data over a long period of time (or to recover data from past periods), 3) to extract extreme values from the data, 4) to find an adequate statistical law that fits the spreading of the extreme values, 5) the selected statistical law must be validated through visual or statistical tests, and 6) the computation of the flow rate of the event itself. (A.C.)

  18. Research frontiers in climate change: Effects of extreme meteorological events on ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jentsch, A.; Jentsch, A.; Beierkuhnlein, C.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change will increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. Evidence suggests that modifications in extreme weather events pose stronger threats to ecosystem functioning than global trends and shifts in average conditions. As ecosystem functioning is connected with ecological services, this has far-reaching effects on societies in the 21. century. Here, we: (i) present the rationale for the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events in the near future; (ii) discuss recent findings on meteorological extremes and summarize their effects on ecosystems and (iii) identify gaps in current ecological climate change research. (authors)

  19. Late Holocene flood probabilities in the Black Hills, South Dakota with emphasis on the Medieval Climate Anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harden, Tessa M.; O'Connor, James E.; Driscoll, Daniel G.

    2015-01-01

    A stratigraphic record of 35 large paleofloods and four large historical floods during the last 2000 years for four basins in the Black Hills of South Dakota reveals three long-term flooding episodes, identified using probability distributions, at A.D.: 120–395, 900–1290, and 1410 to present. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~ A.D. 900–1300) the four basins collectively experienced 13 large floods compared to nine large floods in the previous 800 years, including the largest floods of the last 2000 years for two of the four basins. This high concentration of extreme floods is likely caused by one or more of the following: 1) instability of air masses caused by stronger than normal westerlies; 2) larger or more frequent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean; and/or 3) reduced land covering vegetation or increased forest fires caused by persistent regional drought.

  20. Late-Holocene Climate Change and Human Impact; Palaeoecological Evidence From Peat Deposits in Sweden and Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Linden, M.; van Geel, B.

    2006-12-01

    With the aim of investigating the effects of climate change and human impact on vegetation and carbon accumulation, we took peat cores of ca. 1 meter depth from four raised bogs situated on a North-South transect, at intervals of c. 500 km, Umeå in Sweden to Angermünde in northern Germany. A number of analyses were conducted (plant macrofossils, pollen/non-pollen microfossils, colorimetric humification, carbon/nitrogen ratios, bulk densities, loss on ignition), and 14C wiggle-match dating was applied to obtain a fine-resolution chronology. The cores from the northern and southern site encompass ca. 1000 years of vegetation history, showing evidence for the end of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the twentieth century warming. The middle Swedish and German sites are high resolution records of the last 400 years. The end of the MWP and the cooling at the start of the LIA are reflected by a decline in thermophilous tree species. Changes in the macrofossil composition may also represent changes in climate. Shifts in Sphagnum composition, the dominant peat former, reflect changes in precipitation. Evidence for wet conditions and increased carbon accumulation is found during the Little Ice Age. Human activities affected the peat bog and the surrounding vegetation. Sweden suffered many wars during the 16^{th} and 17^{th} century, which caused a decline in population density. Diseases such as the plague and famines caused by crop failures fastened the population decrease. As a consequence, agricultural land was abandoned, resulting in reforestation by Betula. Later, in the modern part of the records, land-use change and planting of trees comprised the major regional vegetation changes. In the southern site, human activities (drainage to facilitate peat cutting) affected the raised bog itself. A part of the peat archive was lost owing to secondary decomposition which resulted in very low carbon accumulation.

  1. Holocene fire dynamics in Fennoscandia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clear, Jennifer; Seppa, Heikki; Kuosmanen, Niina; Molinari, Chiara; Lehsten, Veiko; Allen, Katherine; Bradshaw, Richard

    2015-04-01

    Prescribed burning is advocated in Fennoscandia to promote regeneration and to encourage biodiversity. This method of forest management is based on the perception that fire was much more frequent in the recent past and over a century of active fire suppression has created a boreal forest ecosystem almost free of natural fire. The absence of fire is thought to have contributed to the widespread dominance of Picea abies (Norway spruce) with the successive spruce dominated forest further reducing fire ignition potential. However, humans have altered the natural fire dynamics of Fennoscandia since the early- to mid-Holocene and disentangling the anthropogenic driven fire dynamics from the natural fire dynamics is challenging. Through palaeoecology and sedimentary charcoal deposits we are able to explore the Holocene spatial and temporal variability and changing drivers of fire and vegetation dynamics in Fennoscandia. At the local-scale, two forest hollow environments (history are compared to identify unique and mutual changes in disturbance history. Pollen derived quantitative reconstruction of vegetation at both the local- and regional-scale identifies local-scale disturbance dynamics and large-scale ecosystem response. Spatio-temporal heterogeneity and variability in biomass burning is explored throughout Fennoscandia and Denmark to identify the changing drives of fire dynamics throughout the Holocene. Palaeo-vegetation reconstructions are compared to process-based, climate driven dynamic vegetation model output to test the significance of fire frequency as a driver of vegetation composition and dynamics. Early-Holocene fire regimes in Fennoscandia are driven by natural climate variations and fuel availability. The establishment and spread of Norway spruce is driven by an increase in continentality of climate, but local natural and anthropogenic ecosystem disturbance may have aided this spread. The expansion of spruce led to a step-wise reduction in regional biomass

  2. Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to extreme events: Climate change implications (Conference paper)

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A.; Pfenninger, S.; Lilliestam, J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight -- thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) -- and identify critical extreme event vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabili...

  3. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  4. Climatization: A critical perspective of framing disasters as climate change events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Grant

    2015-01-01

    The study found recent examples of climatization related to Cyclone Aila (2009 and salt water intrusion in Bangladesh. In most cases these disasters were climatized in order to create a sense of urgency in order to push for an increase in financial aid to Bangladesh and to deflect responsibility for inaction that led up to the disaster. This study urges caution as there is a potential for climatization to be used as a means to cover up negligence or bad management and there is a risk that by climatizing a disaster key vulnerabilities may be overlooked.

  5. The Late-Glacial and Holocene Marboré Lake sequence (2612 m a.s.l., Central Pyrenees, Spain): Testing high altitude sites sensitivity to millennial scale vegetation and climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leunda, Maria; González-Sampériz, Penélope; Gil-Romera, Graciela; Aranbarri, Josu; Moreno, Ana; Oliva-Urcia, Belén; Sevilla-Callejo, Miguel; Valero-Garcés, Blas

    2017-10-01

    This paper presents the environmental, climate and vegetation changes reconstructed for the last 14.6 kyr cal BP from the Marboré Lake sedimentary sequence, the highest altitude record (2612 m a.s.l.) in the Pyrenees studied up to date. We investigate the sensitivity of this high altitude site to vegetational and climate dynamics and altitudinal shifts during the Holocene by comparing palynological spectra of the fossil sequence and pollen rain content from current moss pollsters. We hypothesize that the input of sediments in lakes at such altitude is strongly controlled by ice phenology (ice-free summer months) and that during cold periods Pollen Accumulation Rate (PAR) and Pollen Concentration (PC) reflect changes in ice-cover and thus is linked to temperature changes. Low sedimentation rates and low PC and PAR occurred during colder periods as the Younger Dryas (GS-1) and the Holocene onset (12.6-10.2 kyr cal BP), suggesting that the lake-surface remained ice-covered for most of the year during these periods. Warmer conditions are not evident until 10.2 kyr cal BP, when an abrupt increase in sedimentation rate, PC and PAR occur, pointing to a delayed onset of the Holocene temperature increase at high altitude. Well-developed pinewoods and deciduous forest dominated the mid montane belt since 9.3 kyr cal BP until mid-Holocene (5.2 kyr cal BP). A downwards shift in the deciduous forest occurred after 5.2 kyr cal BP, in agreement with the aridity trend observed at a regional and Mediterranean context. The increase of herbaceous taxa during the late-Holocene (3.5 kyr cal BP-present) reflects a general trend to reduced montane forest, as anthropogenic disturbances were not evident until 1.3 kyr cal BP when Olea proportions from lowland areas and other anthropogenic indicators clearly expand. Our study demonstrates the need to perform local experimental approaches to check the effect of ice phenology on high altitude lakes sensitivity to vegetation changes to obtain

  6. A late Holocene metal record of Andean climate and anthropogenic activity in lake sediments near Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beal, S. A.; Kelly, M. A.; Jackson, B. P.; Stroup, J. S.; Osterberg, E. C.

    2011-12-01

    The tropical hypothesis maintains that major changes in global climate are motivated by phenomena based at tropical latitudes. Evidence for this hypothesis lies in: modern-day observations of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); East African lake sediment records of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position that precede high-latitude changes; and the potential for ITCZ shifts to cause major CO2 degassing from the Southern Ocean. In order to improve the understanding of these phenomena we present an ~1800 year record of atmospheric metal deposition in a lake sediment core near Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru (13.9 °S). In June, 2010 we collected a 1.45 meter-long core from Yanacocha - a small, closed-basin tarn that has been isolated from glacial input since ~11,200 BP. The chronology for the core is based on 4 of 6 AMS 14C dates on aquatic macrofossils and one sharp Zr/Ti anomaly at 36 cm, likely derived from the 350 BP eruption of Huaynaputina. We completely digested organic-rich core samples at 1 cm resolution using HNO3, HCl, and HF in a closed-vessel microwave system, and then analyzed the digestates for 67 metals by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Here we show fluxes of lithogenic metals (Fe, Nb, Ti, and Zr) that reflect changes in wind strength and aridity, fluxes of lithogenic metal isotopes (REEs and Pb) that reflect wind direction, and enrichment factors (EFs) of metals (Ag, As, Cd, Cu, Hg, and Pb) that reflect anthropogenic activity. Five episodic peaks in lithogenic metal fluxes, centered around 1800, 1300, 900, 600, and 100 yrs BP, are thought to result from either drier or windier conditions, potentially caused by a northern ITCZ position or a more persistent El Niño state. The provenance of atmospheric deposition, evidenced by REE ratios (light REEs / heavy REEs), suggest that high lithogenic fluxes are associated with a change in wind direction, possibly caused by a change in the ENSO state, which will be explored with forthcoming Pb

  7. Using a Family Science Day Event to Engage Youth in Climate Change Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brevik, C.; Brevik, E. C.

    2015-12-01

    Each fall, Dickinson State University organizes four Family Science Day events for elementary-aged children to increase their engagement in the sciences. Offered on Saturday afternoons, each event focuses on a different science-related theme. Families can attend these events free of charge, and the kids participate in a large variety of hands-on activities which center around the event's theme. This year, the November event focused on climate change and the roles soil plays in the climate system. The timing of this topic was carefully chosen. 2015 has been declared the International Year of Soil by the United Nations, and the Soil Science Society of America theme for the month of November was Soils and Climate. This public outreach event was an amazing opportunity to help the youth in our community learn about climate change and soil in a fun, interactive environment. The activities also helped the children learn how science is a process of discovery that allows them to better understand the world they live in. In addition to the hands-on activities, a planetarium show focusing on climate change was also offered during the event. The fully immersive, 360-degree show allowed the kids and their parents to personally observe phenomena that are otherwise difficult to visualize. All of the activities at the Family Science Day event were staffed by university students, and this proved to be a very valuable experience for them as well. Some of the students who helped are majoring in a science field, and for them, the experience taught public communication. They learned to break complicated concepts down into simpler terms that young kids can understand. Education majors who participated practiced communicating science concepts to children, and students in other majors who helped with this event gained experiences that reinforced various concepts they had learned in their general education science courses.

  8. Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting

  9. Interpreting the climatic effects on xylem functional traits in two Mediterranean oak species: the role of extreme climatic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelo Rita

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of i detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and ii exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport

  10. Spatial-temporal event detection in climate parameter imagery.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKenna, Sean Andrew; Gutierrez, Karen A.

    2011-10-01

    Previously developed techniques that comprise statistical parametric mapping, with applications focused on human brain imaging, are examined and tested here for new applications in anomaly detection within remotely-sensed imagery. Two approaches to analysis are developed: online, regression-based anomaly detection and conditional differences. These approaches are applied to two example spatial-temporal data sets: data simulated with a Gaussian field deformation approach and weekly NDVI images derived from global satellite coverage. Results indicate that anomalies can be identified in spatial temporal data with the regression-based approach. Additionally, la Nina and el Nino climatic conditions are used as different stimuli applied to the earth and this comparison shows that el Nino conditions lead to significant decreases in NDVI in both the Amazon Basin and in Southern India.

  11. An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.

    2017-12-01

    A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

  12. Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

    2007-01-01

    -90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...

  13. Semi-supervised tracking of extreme weather events in global spatio-temporal climate datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. K.; Prabhat, M.; Williams, D. N.

    2017-12-01

    Deep neural networks have been successfully applied to solve problem to detect extreme weather events in large scale climate datasets and attend superior performance that overshadows all previous hand-crafted methods. Recent work has shown that multichannel spatiotemporal encoder-decoder CNN architecture is able to localize events in semi-supervised bounding box. Motivated by this work, we propose new learning metric based on Variational Auto-Encoders (VAE) and Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) to track extreme weather events in spatio-temporal dataset. We consider spatio-temporal object tracking problems as learning probabilistic distribution of continuous latent features of auto-encoder using stochastic variational inference. For this, we assume that our datasets are i.i.d and latent features is able to be modeled by Gaussian distribution. In proposed metric, we first train VAE to generate approximate posterior given multichannel climate input with an extreme climate event at fixed time. Then, we predict bounding box, location and class of extreme climate events using convolutional layers given input concatenating three features including embedding, sampled mean and standard deviation. Lastly, we train LSTM with concatenated input to learn timely information of dataset by recurrently feeding output back to next time-step's input of VAE. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we show the first semi-supervised end-to-end architecture based on VAE to track extreme weather events which can apply to massive scaled unlabeled climate datasets. Second, the information of timely movement of events is considered for bounding box prediction using LSTM which can improve accuracy of localization. To our knowledge, this technique has not been explored neither in climate community or in Machine Learning community.

  14. Holocene vegetation and climate change recorded in alpine bog sediments from the Borreguiles de la Virgen, Sierra Nevada, southern Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Anderson, R. Scott

    2012-01-01

    High-resolution pollen and magnetic susceptibility (MS) analyses have been carried out on a sediment core taken from a high-elevation alpine bog area located in Sierra Nevada, southern Spain. The earliest part of the record, from 8200 to about 7000 cal yr BP, is characterized by the highest abundance of arboreal pollen and Pediastrum, indicating the warmest and wettest conditions in the area at that time. The pollen record shows a progressive aridification since 7000 cal yr BP that occurred in two steps, first shown by a decrease in Pinus, replaced by Poaceae from 7000 to 4600 cal yr BP and then by Cyperaceae, Artemisia and Amaranthaceae from 4600 to 1200 cal yr BP. Pediastrum also decreased progressively and totally disappeared at ca. 3000 yr ago. The progressive aridification is punctuated by periodically enhanced drought at ca. 6500, 5200 and 4000 cal yr BP that coincide in timing and duration with well-known dry events in the Mediterranean and other areas. Since 1200 cal yr BP, several changes are observed in the vegetation that probably indicate the high-impact of humans in the Sierra Nevada, with pasturing leading to nutrient enrichment and eutrophication of the bog, Pinus reforestation and Olea cultivation at lower elevations.

  15. Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

  16. Causes of early Holocene desertification in arid central Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Liya [Lanzhou University, Key Laboratory of Western China' s Environmental System, Lanzhou, Gansu (China); University of Kiel, Institute of Geosciences, Kiel (Germany); Chen, Fahu [Lanzhou University, Key Laboratory of Western China' s Environmental System, Lanzhou, Gansu (China); Morrill, Carrie [University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO (United States); NOAA' s National Climatic Data Center, Paleoclimatology Branch, Boulder, CO (United States); Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Rosenbloom, Nan [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2012-04-15

    Paleoclimate records of effective moisture (precipitation minus evaporation, or P-E) show a dry (low effective moisture) period in mid-latitude arid/semi-arid central Asia during the early Holocene (11,000-8,000 years ago) relative to the middle and late Holocene, in contrast to evidence for greater-than-present precipitation at the same time in the south and east Asian monsoonal areas. To investigate the spatial differences in climate response over mid-latitude central Asia and monsoonal Asia we conducted a series of simulations with the Community Climate System Model version 3 coupled climate model for the early, middle and late Holocene. The simulations test the climatic impact of all important forcings for the early Holocene, including changes in orbital parameters, the presence of the remnant Laurentide ice sheet and deglacial freshening of the North Atlantic. Model results clearly show the early Holocene patterns indicated by proxy records, including both the decreased effective moisture in arid central Asia, which occurs in the model primarily during the winter months, and the increase in summer monsoon precipitation in south and east Asia. The model results suggest that dry conditions in the early Holocene in central Asia are closely related to decreased water vapor advection due to reduced westerly wind speed and less evaporation upstream from the Mediterranean, Black, and Caspian Seas in boreal winter. As an extra forcing to the early Holocene climate system, the Laurentide ice sheet and meltwater fluxes have a substantial cooling effect over high latitudes, especially just over and downstream of the ice sheets, but contribute only to a small degree to the early Holocene aridity in central Asia. Instead, most of the effective moisture signal can be explained by orbital forcing decreasing the early Holocene latitudinal temperature gradient and wintertime surface temperature. We find little evidence for regional subsidence related to a stronger summer Asian

  17. New high-resolution record of Holocene climate change in the Weddell Sea from combined biomarker analysis of the Patriot Hills blue ice area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogwill, Christopher; Turney, Chris; Baker, Andy; Ellis, Bethany; Cooper, Alan; Etheridge, David; Rubino, Mauro; Thornton, David; Fernando, Francisco; Bird, Michale; Munksgaard, Niels

    2017-04-01

    We report preliminary analysis of biomarkers (including dissolved organic matter (DOM) and DNA) from the Patriot Hills blue ice area (BIA), from the Ellsworth Mountains in the Weddell Sea Embayment. Preliminary isotopic and multiple gas analysis (CO2, CH4, N2O and CO) demonstrate that the Holocene comprises more than 50% of the 800m long BIA record, and in combination isotopic and biomarker analysis reveals a remarkable record of centennial variability through the Holocene in this sector of the Weddell Sea. Analysis using a Horiba Aqualog - which measures the fluorescence of DOM by producing a map of the fluorescence through an excitation-emission matrix (EEM) - identifies the presence of two marine protein-like components in both modern snow pit samples and within the Holocene part of Patriot Hills BIA transect. Intriguingly, the modern seasonal trends in DOM, recorded in contemporary snow pits, have relatively low signals compared to those recorded in the mid-Holocene record, suggesting a reduction in DOM signal in contemporary times. Given that the δD excess data suggests the source of precipitation has remained constant through the Holocene, the biomarker signal must relate to multi-year marine productivity signals from the Weddell Sea. The marked variability in DOM between the mid-Holocene and contemporary times can only relate to periods of sustained, enhanced biological productivity in the Weddell Sea associated with shifts in Southern Annular Mode, sea ice variability, changes in ventilation or polynya activity. Here we discuss the possible drivers of these changes and describe how this approach at this BIA could benefit conventional ice core records regionally.

  18. Holocene seasonal variability inferred from multiple proxy records from Crevice Lake, Yellowstone National Park, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitlock, Cathy; Dean, Walter E.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Stevens, Lora R.; Stone, Jeffery R.; Power, Mitchell J.; Rosenbaum, Joseph R.; Pierce, Kenneth L.; Bracht-Flyr, Brandi B.

    2012-01-01

    A 9400-yr-old record from Crevice Lake, a semi-closed alkaline lake in northern Yellowstone National Park, was analyzed for pollen, charcoal, geochemistry, mineralogy, diatoms, and stable isotopes to develop a nuanced understanding of Holocene environmental history in a region of northern Rocky Mountains that receives both summer and winter precipitation. The limited surface area, conical bathymetry, and deep water (> 31 m) of Crevice Lake create oxygen-deficient conditions in the hypolimnion and preserve annually laminated sediment (varves) for much of the record. Pollen data indicate that the watershed supported a closed Pinus-dominated forest and low fire frequency prior to 8200 cal yr BP, followed by open parkland until 2600 cal yr BP, and open mixed-conifer forest thereafter. Fire activity shifted from infrequent stand-replacing fires initially to frequent surface fires in the middle Holocene and stand-replacing events in recent centuries. Low values of δ18O suggest high winter precipitation in the early Holocene, followed by steadily drier conditions after 8500 cal yr BP. Carbonate-rich sediments before 5000 cal yr BP imply warmer summer conditions than after 5000 cal yr BP. High values of molybdenum (Mo), uranium (U), and sulfur (S) indicate anoxic bottom-waters before 8000 cal yr BP, between 4400 and 3900 cal yr BP, and after 2400 cal yr BP. The diatom record indicates extensive water-column mixing in spring and early summer through much of the Holocene, but a period between 2200 and 800 cal yr BP had strong summer stratification, phosphate limitation, and oxygen-deficient bottom waters. Together, the proxy data suggest wet winters, protracted springs, and warm effectively wet summers in the early Holocene and less snowpack, cool springs, warm dry summers in the middle Holocene. In the late Holocene, the region and lake experienced extreme changes in winter, spring, and summer conditions, with particularly short springs and dry summers and winters during

  19. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    A. Mahmud; M. Hixson; M. J. Kleeman

    2012-01-01

    The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for ...

  20. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    A. Mahmud; M. Hixson; M. J. Kleeman

    2012-01-01

    The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days ...

  1. Soil archives of mardel deposits: the impact of Late Holocene vegetation development, climatic oscillations and historical land use on soil erosion in Luxembourg

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Mourik, Jan; Slotboom, Ruud

    2014-05-01

    Mardel genesis. Mardels are small scale circular to elongated closed depressions (Ø > 50 m). They occur in Luxembourg on the Lias plateau in the Gutland, but also in other regions with landscapes, developed on Keuper and Lias deposits (as Lorraine). We can distinguish geogenetic and anthropogenic mardels. There are two types of genetic mardels, sink holes (controlled by diaclases in the Luxembourger sandstone and 'true mardels' or subsidence basins (controlled by dissolved gypsic lenses in marls of the Keuper deposits). These mardels developed during the Holocene. The age of the mardel sediments is Subatlantic; the sediments have been deposited on a palaeosol. Anthropogenic mardels are the result of historic clay excavation (Roman Time or younger). The age of these mardels is Subatlantic. The age of the sediments is also Subatlantic; the sediments have been deposited on a truncated soil in excavations. In all the genetic types of mardels, the sediments can consist of peat, peaty loam, or colluvic clayloam and the mardel sediments contain always valuable soil archives for the reconstruction of the impact of vegetation development, climatic oscillations and land use on soil erosion and deposition. Comparison of mardel deposits and valley deposits. - Pre-Holocene mardels have been eroded during the Weichselian. Geogenic mardels have been developed during the Holocene, anthropogenic mardels have been excavated since Roman Time. The age of the clastic (colluvic) deposits in mardels is Subatlantic - In the Late Glacial, valley bottoms were rather broad and covered with a gravelly bed load. Till the Subboreal river incision was active in primary valleys and peat accumulation took place on broad valley bottoms of secondary valleys. Since Celtic/Roman Time deforestation and extension of agriculture. During the Subatlantic colluvic/alluvic sedimentation took place on all the valley bottoms. The Subatlantic is a period of accelerated sedimentation of clastic sediments in

  2. Late Pleistocene Climate Events and The Origin of Agriculture In SW Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossignol-Strick, M.

    In the Eastern Mediterranean sea, the climate succession of the last deglaciation is documented and dated in marine cores by the d18-O variation of foraminiferal cal- cite and pollen records. The Last Glacial Maximum is identified by a large abundance of grass pollen from a prairie-type vegetal cover with low annual precipitation in the mountainous north and east borderlands of the sea, where the pollen mainly origi- nates. During the first phase of the last deglaciation, the Bolling/Allerod chronozone, the moisture availability increases and makes possible the spread of a deciduous for- est, as shown by the increasing pollen abundance of the deciduous oak. The cold and arid Younger Dryas is identified by a reversal to semi-desert conditions, with the in- crease of sage-brush (Artemisia) and the saline-tolerant Chenopodiaceae. The climate of the earliest Holocene is Optimum for at least 3000 years (9000-6000yr BP), with the largest spread of the deciduous forest at low-middle elevations signalling wet sum- mers and of the Pistacia woodland at low elevations signalling mild, no-frost winters. This is the time when the most recent sapropel deposited in the eastern Mediterranean under anoxic bottom conditions generated by a surface lid of lower salinity due to the concomitant largest floods of the Nile River fed by the strongest African monsoon rains in the Ethiopian Highlands. In SW Asia, the pollen records of lakes and marshes have been correlated with those of the marine cores, thereby obtaining a robust time-frame. In that area, the archaeo- logical data of human settlements are independently dated by 14C. Thus the archaeo- logical succession can be securely set against the well-dated climatic succession. The Late Palaeolithic populations of SW Asia were wandering hunter-gatherers in the prairies of the Last Glacial Maximum, where they already collected wild wheat, barley and fruit. With the Bolling/Allerod wetter and warmer climate, they began to settle in

  3. Isotope heterogeneity of Pre-Holocene groundwater in Iceland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sveinbjörnsdóttir, Á.E.; Arnorsson, S.; Heinemeier, Jan

    2007-01-01

    In recent years, it has been shown that groundwater with a Pre-Holocene component is more common in the Icelandic bedrock than previously thought. Some of the Pre-Holocene water samples are more depleted in delta H-2 and delta O-18 than any mean annual precipitation in Iceland today due to the cold...... climate at that time. However, most often Pre-Holocene water components cannot be detected based on the water isotopes alone due to mixing with younger and isotopically heavier water. The Cl concentration in relation to the water isotopes in specific areas has proved to be a good indicator of a Pre......-Holocene component in the groundwater. The deuterium excess value may also help to identify water from a different climate regime, if no oxygen shift has occurred. The relative abundance of a Pre-Holocene water component of the Icelandic groundwater has led to the understanding that combined interpretation of water...

  4. Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.

    2018-01-01

    The United Nations Paris Agreement creates a specific need to compare consequences of cumulative emissions for pledged national commitments and aspirational targets of 1.5° to 2°C global warming. We find that humans have already increased the probability of historically unprecedented hot, warm, wet, and dry extremes, including over 50 to 90% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. Emissions consistent with national commitments are likely to cause substantial and widespread additional increases, including more than fivefold for warmest night over ~50% of Europe and >25% of East Asia and more than threefold for wettest days over >35% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. In contrast, meeting aspirational targets to keep global warming below 2°C reduces the area experiencing more than threefold increases to 90% of North America, Europe, East Asia, and much of the tropics—still exhibit sizable increases in the probability of record-setting hot, wet, and/or dry events. PMID:29457133

  5. [Extreme Climatic Events in the Altai Republic According to Dendrochronological Data].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barinov, V V; Myglan, V S; Nazarov, A N; Vaganov, E A; Agatova, A R; Nepop, R K

    2016-01-01

    The results of dating of extreme climatic events by damage to the anatomical structure and missing tree rings of the Siberian larch in the upper forest boundary of the Altai Republic are given. An analysis of the spatial distribution of the revealed dates over seven plots (Kokcy, Chind, Ak-ha, Jelo, Tute, Tara, and Sukor) allowed us to distinguish the extreme events on interregional (1700, 1783, 1788, 1812, 1814, 1884), regional (1724, 1775, 1784, 1835, 1840, 1847, 1850, 1852, 1854, 1869, 1871, 1910, 1917, 1927, 1938, 1958, 1961), and local (1702, 1736, 1751, 1785, 1842, 1843,1874, 1885, 1886, 1919, 2007, and 2009) scales. It was shown that the events of an interregional scale correspond with the dates of major volcanic eruptions (Grimsvotn, Lakagigar, Etna, Awu, Tambora, Soufriere St. Vinsent, Mayon, and Krakatau volcanos) and extreme climatic events, crop failures, lean years, etc., registered in historical sources.

  6. 18 Ka BP records of climatic changes, Bay of Bengal: Isotopic and sedimentological evidences

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chauhan, O.S.; Suneethi, J.

    are also identified at 10.3 and 11.5 Ka BP. The later event matches well with that of the ‘Younger Dryas’ event of world climate models. The beginning of the Holocene is marked by lighter d18O values (at around 9.5 Ka BP), which has been interpreted...

  7. Climate change and heavy rain events in the central U.S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunkel, K.E.

    1994-01-01

    Floods are one of the most destructive weather-related natural hazards, annually responsible for hundreds of millions of dollars of damage in the United States. The 1993 Upper Mississippi River flood was particularly devastating, with losses estimate at $15--20 billion. Climate change caused by anthropogenic releases of trace gases into the atmosphere may potentially affect the frequency and/or intensity of the meteorological conditions that cause floods. Flood control structures often have lifetimes of 50 to 100 years or more. Since design decisions are being made today for flood control structures that will still be in operation in the late 21st century, it is important to study the possibility that changes in flooding may result due to possible climate change. In this paper, the authors describe an analysis of heavy precipitation events. In particular, they identify the principal meteorological conditions that are associated with these events. An approach to assessing the impacts of climate change on flood-producing heavy rain events is outlined. Kunkel et al. (1993) found that floods on small streams in the central US could be closely related to large rain accumulations over 5--10-day periods. Typically, these accumulations are the result of two or more sizable individual events. The first event may set the stage by creating wet topsoils. The following events then result in high runoff. The present study focuses on these multiday events as a primary meteorological cause of floods. Obviously other factors, such as antecedent soil moisture, play a role in determining the exact amount and temporal distribution of runoff for any particular event. This analysis thus represents a first-order look at possible changes in flooding due to climate change

  8. Middle Holocene rapid environmental changes and human adaptation in Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lespez, Laurent; Glais, Arthur; Lopez-Saez, José-Antonio; Le Drezen, Yann; Tsirtsoni, Zoï; Davidson, Robert; Biree, Laetitia; Malamidou, Dimitra

    2016-03-01

    Numerous researchers discuss of the collapse of civilizations in response to abrupt climate change in the Mediterranean region. The period between 6500 and 5000 cal yr BP is one of the least studied episodes of rapid climate change at the end of the Late Neolithic. This period is characterized by a dramatic decline in settlement and a cultural break in the Balkans. High-resolution paleoenvironmental proxy data obtained in the Lower Angitis Valley enables an examination of the societal responses to rapid climatic change in Greece. Development of a lasting fluvio-lacustrine environment followed by enhanced fluvial activity is evident from 6000 cal yr BP. Paleoecological data show a succession of dry events at 5800-5700, 5450 and 5000-4900 cal yr BP. These events correspond to incursion of cold air masses to the eastern Mediterranean, confirming the climatic instability of the middle Holocene climate transition. Two periods with farming and pastural activities (6300-5600 and 5100-4700 cal BP) are evident. The intervening period is marked by environmental changes, but the continuous occurrence of anthropogenic taxa suggests the persistence of human activities despite the absence of archaeological evidence. The environmental factors alone were not sufficient to trigger the observed societal changes.

  9. Sedimentary and hydrological studies of the Holocene palaeofloods in the Shanxi-Shaanxi Gorge of the middle Yellow River, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaogang; Huang, Chun Chang; Pang, Jiangli; Zha, Xiaochun; Ma, Yugai

    2015-01-01

    Holocene slackwater deposits along the river channels were used to study the magnitude and frequency of the palaeofloods that occurred prior to gauged and historical data sets all over the world. Palaeohydrological investigations along the Shanxi-Shaanxi Gorge of the middle Yellow River, China, identified palaeoflood slackwater deposits (SWDs) at several sites along the cliffs bordering the river channel. The SWDs are intercalated within Holocene eolian loess-soil profiles and clastic slope deposits. The palaeoflood SWDs were differentiated from eolian loess and soil by the sedimentary criteria and analytical results including magnetic susceptibility and particle-size distribution, similar to the flood SWDs in 2012, which indicated that these well-sorted palaeoflood SWD beds were deposited from the suspended sediment load in floodwaters. They have recorded the extraordinary palaeoflood events which occurred between 3200 and 3000 a BP as dated by the optically stimulated luminescence method in combination with pedostratigraphic correlations with the previously studied Holocene pedo-stratigraphy in the Yellow River drainage basin. Manning slope-area calculations estimate the peak discharged for these palaeoflood events to range from 43,290 to 49,830 m3/s. The drainage area of the study site is 489,900 km2. It is 2.0-2.5 times the largest gauged flood (21,000 m3/s) that has ever occurred since 1934. These events also occurred on Yellow River tributaries, including the Weihe, Jinghe and Qishuihe Rivers. These flood events are therefore considered to be a regional expression of known climatic events in the northern hemisphere and demonstrate Holocene climatic instability. This study provides important data in understanding the interactions between regional hydro-climatic systems and global change in semiarid and subhumid regions.

  10. Paleoclimate Records from New Zealand Maar Lakes, Insights into ENSO Teleconnections and Climatic Events in the South (West) Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulmeister, J.; Nobes, D. C.; Striewski, B.

    2008-05-01

    The maar craters of the New Zealand Auckland Volcanic Field (36.5°S, 174.5°E) contain some of the highest resolution late-Quaternary paleoclimate records in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we integrate laminae count results from recent drilling in the Hopua Crater with existing records from the nearby Onepoto Crater (Pepper et al., 2004). In total these records cover many thousands of years between the onset of the last glaciation maximum and the early mid-Holocene. The cores are strongly laminated. Individual laminae in both craters are very fine (sub-mm to mm scale) and form couplets which comprise a darker mineralogenic rich layer and a lighter diatomaceous layer. In places these couplets are annual, and may reflect seasonal algal blooms, but in other sections of the record, notably through the late-Glacial and Holocene, the couplets are deposited at inter-annual time scales. Spectral analyses of couplet thickness counts using a fast Fourier transform (FFT) with 64 to 256-year running windows, and a 50 per cent overlap indicate strong spectral power during the LGM and markedly weaker power during both the deglaciation and early Holocene. In fact there is no spectral strength for most of these periods. Three brief (centennial duration) events punctuate this extended period of low spectral power. These occur at c. 16 ka, c. 14.8 ka and during the early Holocene. They display spectral power in the 5-7yr ENSO window and also at longer time intervals that may be consistent with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We infer the local switching on (or up) of ENSO and PDO teleconnections and suspect these are embedded in circum-polar circulation changes. In addition to these spectral power episodes, there is a general increase in the number of couplet cycles per century between the deglaciation and the early mid-Holocene. This matches observations from Equador and Peru and suggests that trans-Pacific ENSO responses are in phase between western tropical South America and New

  11. Geomorphic and sedimentary responses of the Bull Creek Valley (Southern High Plains, USA) to Pleistocene and Holocene environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arauza, Hanna M.; Simms, Alexander R.; Bement, Leland C.; Carter, Brian J.; Conley, Travis; Woldergauy, Ammanuel; Johnson, William C.; Jaiswal, Priyank

    2016-01-01

    Fluvial geomorphology and stratigraphy often reflect past environmental and climate conditions. This study examines the response of Bull Creek, a small ephemeral creek in the Oklahoma panhandle, to environmental conditions through the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Fluvial terraces were mapped and their stratigraphy and sedimentology documented throughout the course of the main valley. Based on their elevations, terraces were broadly grouped into a late-Pleistocene fill terrace (T3) and two Holocene fill-cut terrace sets (T2 and T1). Terrace systems are marked by similar stratigraphies recording the general environmental conditions of the time. Sedimentary sequences preserved in terrace fills record the transition from a perennial fluvial system during the late glacial period and the Younger Dryas to a semiarid environment dominated by loess accumulation and punctuated by flood events during the middle to late Holocene. The highest rates of aeolian accumulation within the valley occurred during the early to middle Holocene. Our data provide significant new information regarding the late-Pleistocene and Holocene environmental history for this region, located between the well-studied Southern and Central High Plains of North America.

  12. Late mid-Holocene sea-level oscillation: A possible cause

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, D. B.; Collins, E. S.

    Sea level oscillated between 5500 and 3500 years ago at Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, Chezzetcook and Baie Verte, Nova Scotia and Montmagny, Quebec. The oscillation is well constrained by foraminiferal marsh zonations in three locations and by diatoms in the fourth one. The implications are: (1) there was a eustatic sea-level oscillation of about 2-10 m in the late mid-Holocene on the southeast coast of North America (South Carolina to Quebec) that is not predicted by present geophysical models of relative sea-level change; (2) this oscillation coincides with oceanographic cooling on the east coast of Canada that we associate with melting ice; and (3) this sea- level oscillation/climatic event coincides exactly with the end of pyramid building in Egypt which is suggested to have resulted from a climate change (i.e. drought, cooling). This sea-level/climatic change is a prime example of feedback where climatic warming in the mid-Holocene promoted ice melt in the Arctic which subsequently caused climatic cooling by opening up Arctic channels releasing cold water into the Inner Labrador Current that continued to intensify until 4000 years ago. This sea-level event may also be the best way of measuring when the final ice melted since most estimates of the ages of the last melting are based on end moraine dates in the Arctic which may not coincide with when the last ice actually melted out, since there is no way of dating the final ice positions.

  13. The Holocene History of Placentia Bay, Newfoundland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sheldon, Christina; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Reynisson, Njall

    2013-01-01

    Marine sediments analyzed from cores taken in Placentia Bay, Newfoundland, located in the Labrador Sea, captured oceanographic and climatic changes from the end of the Younger Dryas through the Holocene. Placentia Bay is an ideal site to capture changes in both the south-flowing Labrador Current ...

  14. Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.

    2013-12-01

    Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban

  15. Coping Strategies to Deal with Environmental Variability and Extreme Climatic Events in the Peruvian Anchovy Fishery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilú Bouchon

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The Peruvian anchovy fishery is the largest worldwide in terms of catches. The fishery started during the mid 1950s, and since then it has been highly dependent on natural stock fluctuations, due to the sensitivity of anchovy stocks to ocean-climate variability. The main driver of anchovy stock variability is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, and three extreme ENSO warm events were recorded in 1972–1973, 1983–1984 and 1997–1998. This study investigates the evolution of coping strategies developed by the anchovy fisheries to deal with climate variability and extreme ENSO events. Results showed eight coping strategies to reduce impacts on the fishery. These included: decentralized installation of anchovy processing factories; simultaneous ownership of fishing fleet and processing factories; use of low-cost unloading facilities; opportunistic utilization of invading fish populations; low cost intensive monitoring; rapid flexible management; reduction of fishmeal price uncertainty through controlled production based on market demand; and decoupling of fishmeal prices from those of other protein-rich feed substitutes like soybean. This research shows that there are concrete lessons to be learned from successful adaptations to cope with climate change-related extreme climatic events that impact the supply of natural resources. The lessons can contribute to improved policies for coping with climate change in the commercial fishery sector.

  16. Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Berg, M.P.; Callaghan, T.V.; Kirby-Lambert, C.; Bjerke, J.W.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect

  17. Records of climatic changes and volcanic events in an ice core from ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    the volcanic event that occurred in 1815 AD, has been identified based on electrical conductance ... tions and accumulation rates of ice, climatic and ..... The peak saturated values of currents (µ amp) at about 5 and 30m depths identify the past volcanic episodes Augung ..... in promoting the scientific activities by allowing us.

  18. Holocene vegetation, environment, and tephra recorded from Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horrocks, M.; Augustinus, P.; Deng, Y.; Shane, P.; Andersson, S.

    2005-01-01

    Lake Pupuke provides a near-complete, high-resolution environmental record of the Holocene from northern New Zealand. Tephra beds constrain the timing of a range of proxy indicators of environmental change, and demonstrate errors in a radiocarbon chronology. Agathis australis forest progressively increases from c. 7000 yr BP and, in conjunction with indicators of reduced biomass productivity, support a model of long-term climate change to drier conditions over the Holocene. However, except for Agathis, conifer-hardwood forest dominated mainly by Dacrydium cupressinum shows little change throughout the pre-human Holocene, suggesting environmental stability. Dramatic vegetation change occurred only within the last millennium as a result of large-scale Polynesian deforestation by fire. This happened a short time before the local eruption of c. 638 cal. yr BP Rangitoto Tephra. The identification of two eruptions of tephra from Rangitoto volcano has implications for future hazard planning in the Auckland region, because the volcanoes were previously considered single event centres. Changes in atmospheric circulation since the Late Glacial, possibly causing lower frequency of distal ashfall in Auckland during the Holocene, complicates the use of long-term records in hazard frequency assessment. (author). 39 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  19. Public health and climate change. The example of extreme weather events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascal, M.; Pirard, P.; Medina, S.; Viso, A.C.; Caserio-Schonemann, C.; Beaudeau, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Health surveillance Systems can be used 1) to trigger early warning Systems, 2) to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, 3) to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and 4) to evaluate these measures. InVS proposed a method to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for strengthened health surveillance Systems, taking into account environment, individual and social behaviors, demography and health state. Extreme climate events are illustrated here. These events have short, medium and long term impacts that could be reduced through efficient prevention. To better understand these impacts and orientate prevention, interdisciplinary studies will be needed. (authors)

  20. Climate network analysis of regional precipitation extremes: The true story told by event synchronization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odenweller, Adrian; Donner, Reik V.

    2017-04-01

    Over the last decade, complex network methods have been frequently used for characterizing spatio-temporal patterns of climate variability from a complex systems perspective, yielding new insights into time-dependent teleconnectivity patterns and couplings between different components of the Earth climate. Among the foremost results reported, network analyses of the synchronicity of extreme events as captured by the so-called event synchronization have been proposed to be powerful tools for disentangling the spatio-temporal organization of particularly extreme rainfall events and anticipating the timing of monsoon onsets or extreme floodings. Rooted in the analysis of spike train synchrony analysis in the neurosciences, event synchronization has the great advantage of automatically classifying pairs of events arising at two distinct spatial locations as temporally close (and, thus, possibly statistically - or even dynamically - interrelated) or not without the necessity of selecting an additional parameter in terms of a maximally tolerable delay between these events. This consideration is conceptually justified in case of the original application to spike trains in electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings, where the inter-spike intervals show relatively narrow distributions at high temporal sampling rates. However, in case of climate studies, precipitation extremes defined by daily precipitation sums exceeding a certain empirical percentile of their local distribution exhibit a distinctively different type of distribution of waiting times between subsequent events. This raises conceptual concerns if event synchronization is still appropriate for detecting interlinkages between spatially distributed precipitation extremes. In order to study this problem in more detail, we employ event synchronization together with an alternative similarity measure for event sequences, event coincidence rates, which requires a manual setting of the tolerable maximum delay between two

  1. Climate Resiliency Planning: Making Extreme Event Science Useful for Managers and Planners in Northern Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, M.; Kenneston, A.; Wall, T. U.; Brown, T. J.; Redmond, K. T.

    2014-12-01

    Effective climate resiliency planning at the regional level requires extensive interactive dialogue among climate scientists, emergency managers, public health officials, urban planners, social scientists, and policy makers. Engaging federal, tribal, state, local governments and private sector business and infrastructure owners/operators in defining, assessing and characterizing the impacts of extreme events allows communities to understand how different events "break the system" forcing local communities to seek support and resources from state/federal governments and/or the private sector and what actions can be taken proactively to mitigate consequences and accelerate recovery. The Washoe County Regional Resiliency Study was prepared in response to potential climate variability related impacts specific to the Northern Nevada Region. The last several decades have seen dramatic growth in the region, coupled with increased resource demands that have forced local governments to consider how those impacts will affect the region and may, in turn, impact the region's ability to provide essential services. The Western Regional Climate Center of the Desert Research Institute provided a synthesis of climate studies with predictions regarding plausible changes in the local climate of Northern California and Nevada for the next 50 years. In general, these predictions indicate that the region's climate is undergoing a gradual shift, which will primarily affect the frequency, amount, and form of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin. Changes in water availability and other extreme events may have serious and long lasting effects in the Northern Nevada Region, and create a variety of social, environmental and economic concerns. A range of extreme events were considered including Adverse Air Quality, Droughts, Floods, Heat Waves, High Wind, Structure Fires, Wildland Fires, and Major Winter Storms. Due to the complexity of our climate systems, and the difficulty in

  2. Transformation of soil organics under extreme climate events: a project description

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blagodatskaya, Evgenia

    2017-04-01

    Recent climate scenarios predict not only continued global warming but also an increased frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as strong changes in temperature and precipitation with unusual regional dynamics. Weather anomalies at European territory of Russia are currently revealed as long-term drought and strong showers in summer and as an increased frequency of soil freezing-thawing cycles. Climate extremes totally change biogeochemical processes and elements cycling both at the ecosystem level and at the level of soil profile mainly affecting soil biota. Misbalance in these processes can cause a reduction of soil carbon stock and an increase of greenhouse gases emission. Our project aims to reveal the transformation mechanisms of soil organic matter caused by extreme weather events taking into consideration the role of biotic-abiotic interactions in regulation of formation, maintenance and turnover of soil carbon stock. Our research strategy is based on the novel concept considering extreme climatic events (showers after long-term droughts, soil flooding, freezing-thawing) as abiotic factors initiating a microbial succession. Study on stoichiometric flexibility of plants under climate extremes as well as on resulting response of soil heterotrophs on stoichiometric changes in substrate will be used for experimental prove and further development of the theory of ecological stoichiometry. The results enable us to reveal the mechanisms of biotic - abiotic interactions responsible for the balance between mobilization and stabilization of soil organic matter. Identified mechanisms will form the basis of an ecosystem model enabled to predict the effects of extreme climatic events on biogenic carbon cycle in the biosphere.

  3. The Holocene warm-humid phases in the North China Plain as recorded by multi-proxy records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jianxin; Zhou, Shangzhe; Chang, Hong

    2009-02-01

    The grain size and palinology of sediment and the frequency of 14C dada provide an integrated reconstruction of the Holocene warm-humid phases of the North China Plain. Two clear intense and long-lasting warm-humid phases were identified by comprehensive research in this region. The first phase was dated back to the early Holocene (9 000-7 000 a BP), and the second was centered at 5 000-3 000 a BP. The warm-humid episode between 9 000 and 7 000 a BP was also recognized at other sites showing global climatic trends rather than local events. Compared with the concern to the warm-humid phase of the early Holocene, the second one was not paid enough attention in the last few decades. The compilation of the Holocene paleoclimate data suggests that perhaps the second warm-humid phase was pervasive in monsoon region of China. In perspective of environmental archaeology, much attention should be devoted to it, because the flourish and adaptation of the Neolithic cultures and the building up of the first state seem to corresponding to the general warm-humid climatic conditions of this period. In addition, a warm-humid interval at 7 200-6 500 a BP was recognized by the grain size data from three sites. However, this warm-humid event was not shown in pollen assemblage and temporal distribution of 14C data. Perhaps, the resolution for climatic reconstruction from pollen and temporal distribution of 14C data cited here is relatively low and small-amplitude and short-period climatic events cannot be well reflected by the data. Due to the difference in locality and elevation of sampling site, as well as in resolution of proxy records, it is difficult to make precise correlation. Further work is needed in the future.

  4. Science-based risk assessments for rare events in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, A. H.; Tippett, M. K.; Camargo, S. J.; Lee, C. Y.; Allen, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    History shows that substantial investments in protection against any specific type of natural disaster usually occur only after (usually shortly after) that specific type of disaster has happened in a given place. This is true even when it was well known before the event that there was a significant risk that it could occur. Presumably what psychologists Kahneman and Tversky have called "availability bias" is responsible, at least in part, for these failures to act on known but out-of-sample risks. While understandable, this human tendency prepares us poorly for events which are very rare (on the time scales of human lives) and even more poorly for a changing climate, as historical records become a poorer guide. A more forward-thinking and rational approach would require scientific risk assessments that can place meaningful probabilities on events that are rare enough to be absent from the historical record, and that can account for the influences of both anthropogenic climate change and low-frequency natural climate variability. The set of tools available for doing such risk assessments is still quite limited, particularly for some of the most extreme events such as tropical cyclones and tornadoes. We will briefly assess the state of the art for these events in particular, and describe some of our ongoing research to develop new tools for quantitative risk assessment using hybrids of statistical methods and physical understanding of the hazards.

  5. Tracking Lateglacial and early Holocene environmental change: a palaeolimnological study of sediment at Preluca Tiganului, NW Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelica Feurdean

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Palaeoecological, palaeohydrological, and paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the Late Glacial and the early Holocene have been performed from sediment accumulated in a small former crater lake, in the GutâI Mountains, NW Romania. Pollen, lithology, mineral magnetic, and loss-on-ignition analyses in conjunction to radiocarbon dating have been use for this purpose. The data indicates that during the Late Glacial period, vegetation dynamics were likely driven by climatic fluctuations. The climate events during the Late Glacial are well mirrored in local vegetation assemblage development, and past lake level fluctuations. These climatic events recorded in south-eastern Europe, are well correlated with the climate events from the North Western Europe and Greenland ice core stratigraphy.

  6. Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Drought Events in the Weihe River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Yuan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative evaluation of future climate change impacts on hydrological drought characteristics is one of important measures for implementing sustainable water resources management and effective disaster mitigation in drought-prone regions under the changing environment. In this study, a modeling system for projecting the potential future climate change impacts on hydrological droughts in the Weihe River basin (WRB in North China is presented. This system consists of a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from three climate models (CMs for future streamflow projections, a probabilistic model for univariate drought assessment, and a copula-based bivariate model for joint drought frequency analysis under historical and future climates. With the observed historical climate data as the inputs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model projects an overall runoff reduction in the WRB under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. The univariate drought assessment found that although fewer hydrological drought events would occur under A1B scenario, drought duration and severity tend to increase remarkably. Moreover, the bivariate drought assessment reveals that future droughts in the same return period as the baseline droughts would become more serious. With these trends in the future, the hydrological drought situation in the WRB would be further deteriorated.

  7. Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leeson, Amber A.; Eastoe, Emma; Fettweis, Xavier

    2018-03-01

    Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 1.7-6.12 mm to global sea level between 1993 and 2010 and is expected to contribute 20-110 mm to future sea level rise by 2100. These estimates were produced by regional climate models (RCMs) which are known to be robust at the ice sheet scale but occasionally miss regional- and local-scale climate variability (e.g. Leeson et al., 2017; Medley et al., 2013). To date, the fidelity of these models in the context of short-period variability in time (i.e. intra-seasonal) has not been fully assessed, for example their ability to simulate extreme temperature events. We use an event identification algorithm commonly used in extreme value analysis, together with observations from the Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net), to assess the ability of the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) RCM to reproduce observed extreme positive-temperature events at 14 sites around Greenland. We find that MAR is able to accurately simulate the frequency and duration of these events but underestimates their magnitude by more than half a degree Celsius/kelvin, although this bias is much smaller than that exhibited by coarse-scale Era-Interim reanalysis data. As a result, melt energy in MAR output is underestimated by between 16 and 41 % depending on global forcing applied. Further work is needed to precisely determine the drivers of extreme temperature events, and why the model underperforms in this area, but our findings suggest that biases are passed into MAR from boundary forcing data. This is important because these forcings are common between RCMs and their range of predictions of past and future ice sheet melting. We propose that examining extreme events should become a routine part of global and regional climate model evaluation and that addressing shortcomings in this area should be a priority for model development.

  8. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

    2012-08-01

    The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines

  9. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mahmud

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44 global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV, the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB. Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events.

    The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; −3% and organic carbon (OC; −3% due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (−3% and food cooking (−4%. In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3. In general, climate

  10. Developing research about extreme events and impacts to support international climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike; James, Rachel; Parker, Hannah; Boyd, Emily; Jones, Richard; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Cornforth, Rosalind

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to have some of its most significant impacts through changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events. There is a pressing need for policy to support adaptation to changing climate risks, and to deal with residual loss and damage from climate change. In 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism was established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address loss and damage in developing countries. Strategies to help vulnerable regions cope with losses from extreme events will presumably require information about the influence of anthropogenic forcing on extreme weather. But what kind of scientific evidence will be most useful for the Warsaw Mechanism? And how can the scientific communities working on extreme events and impacts develop their research to support the advance of this important policy? As climate scientists conducting probabilistic event attribution studies, we have been working with social scientists to investigate these questions. Our own research seeks to examine the role of external drivers, including greenhouse gas emissions, on the risk of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, and drought. We use large ensembles of climate models to compute the probability of occurrence of extreme events under current conditions and in a world which might have been without anthropogenic interference. In cases where the models are able to simulate extreme weather, the analysis allows for conclusions about the extent to which climate change may have increased, decreased, or made no change to the risk of the event occurring. These results could thus have relevance for the UNFCCC negotiations on loss and damage, and we have been communicating with policymakers and observers to the policy process to better understand how we can develop our research to support their work; by attending policy meetings, conducting interviews, and using a participatory game developed with the Red Cross

  11. From products to processes: Academic events to foster interdisciplinary and iterative dialogue in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addor, Nans; Ewen, Tracy; Johnson, Leigh; Ćöltekin, Arzu; Derungs, Curdin; Muccione, Veruska

    2015-08-01

    In the context of climate change, both climate researchers and decision makers deal with uncertainties, but these uncertainties differ in fundamental ways. They stem from different sources, cover different temporal and spatial scales, might or might not be reducible or quantifiable, and are generally difficult to characterize and communicate. Hence, a mutual understanding between current and future climate researchers and decision makers must evolve for adaptation strategies and planning to progress. Iterative two-way dialogue can help to improve the decision making process by bridging current top-down and bottom-up approaches. One way to cultivate such interactions is by providing venues for these actors to interact and exchange on the uncertainties they face. We use a workshop-seminar series involving academic researchers, students, and decision makers as an opportunity to put this idea into practice and evaluate it. Seminars, case studies, and a round table allowed participants to reflect upon and experiment with uncertainties. An opinion survey conducted before and after the workshop-seminar series allowed us to qualitatively evaluate its influence on the participants. We find that the event stimulated new perspectives on research products and communication processes, and we suggest that similar events may ultimately contribute to the midterm goal of improving support for decision making in a changing climate. Therefore, we recommend integrating bridging events into university curriculum to foster interdisciplinary and iterative dialogue among researchers, decision makers, and students.

  12. Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; hide

    2017-01-01

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  13. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2017-05-09

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  14. Preface: Impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances on carbon dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Jingfeng; Liu, Shuguang; Stoy, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    The impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances (ECE&D) on the carbon cycle have received growing attention in recent years. This special issue showcases a collection of recent advances in understanding the impacts of ECE&D on carbon cycling. Notable advances include quantifying how harvesting activities impact forest structure, carbon pool dynamics, and recovery processes; observed drastic increases of the concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved methane in thermokarst lakes in western Siberia during a summer warming event; disentangling the roles of herbivores and fire on forest carbon dioxide flux; direct and indirect impacts of fire on the global carbon balance; and improved atmospheric inversion of regional carbon sources and sinks by incorporating disturbances. Combined, studies herein indicate several major research needs. First, disturbances and extreme events can interact with one another, and it is important to understand their overall impacts and also disentangle their effects on the carbon cycle. Second, current ecosystem models are not skillful enough to correctly simulate the underlying processes and impacts of ECE&D (e.g., tree mortality and carbon consequences). Third, benchmark data characterizing the timing, location, type, and magnitude of disturbances must be systematically created to improve our ability to quantify carbon dynamics over large areas. Finally, improving the representation of ECE&D in regional climate/earth system models and accounting for the resulting feedbacks to climate are essential for understanding the interactions between climate and ecosystem dynamics.

  15. Development of a Climate Resilience Screening Index (CRSI): An Assessment of Resilience to Acute Meteorological Events and Selected Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    We developed a conceptual model of climate resilience (CRSI – Climate Resilience Screening Index ) designed to be sensitive to changes in the natural environment, built environment, governance, and social structure and vulnerability or risk to climate events. CRSI has been used ...

  16. Tropical climate and vegetation changes during Heinrich Event 1: a model-data comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Handiani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abrupt climate changes from 18 to 15 thousand years before present (kyr BP associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1 had a strong impact on vegetation patterns not only at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean. To gain a better understanding of the linkage between high and low latitudes, we used the University of Victoria (UVic Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial. We calculated mega-biomes from the plant-functional types (PFTs generated by the model to allow for a direct comparison between model results and palynological vegetation reconstructions.

    Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well with biome reconstructions of the modern and LGM time slices, respectively, except that our pre-industrial simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in southern Europe and our LGM simulation resulted in more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America.

    The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea-surface temperature patterns and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. We found that the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those PFTs that are indicative of an increased desertification and a retreat of broadleaf forests in West Africa and northern South America. The mega-biomes from our HE1 simulation agreed well with paleovegetation data from tropical Africa and northern South America. Thus, according to our model-data comparison, the reconstructed vegetation changes for the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean were physically consistent with the remote

  17. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  18. Using Critical Thresholds to Customize Climate Projections of Extreme Events to User Needs and Support Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfin, G. M.; Petersen, A.; Shafer, M.; MacClune, K.; Hayhoe, K.; Riley, R.; Nasser, E.; Kos, L.; Allan, C.; Stults, M.; LeRoy, S. R.

    2016-12-01

    Many communities in the United States are already vulnerable to extreme events; many of these vulnerabilities are likely to increase with climate change. In order to promote the development of effective community responses to climate change, we tested a participatory process for developing usable climate science, in which our project team worked with decision-makers to identify extreme event parameters and critical thresholds associated with policy development and adaptation actions. Our hypothesis is that conveying climate science and data through user-defined parameters and thresholds will help develop capacity to streamline the use of climate projections in developing strategies and actions, and motivate participation by a variety of preparedness planners. Our team collaborated with urban decision-makers, in departments that included resilience, planning, public works, public health, emergency management, and others, in four cities in the semi-arid south-central plains and intermountain areas of Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. Through an iterative process, we homed in on both simple and hybrid indicators for which we could develop credible city-specific projections, to stimulate discussion about adaptation actions; throughout the process, we communicated information about confidence and uncertainty, in order to develop a blend of historic and projected climate data, as appropriate, depending on levels of uncertainty. Our collaborations have resulted in (a) the identification of more than 50 unique indicators and thresholds across the four communities, (b) the development of adaptation action strategies in each community, and (c) the implementation of actions, ranging from a climate leadership training program for city staff members, to a rainwater capture project to improve responses to expected increases in both stormwater runoff and water capture for drought episodes.

  19. Abrupt decadal-to-centennial hydroclimate changes in the Mediterranean region since the mid-Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Hsun-Ming; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Jiang, Xiuyang; Wang, Yongjin; Mii, Horng-Sheng; Michel, Véronique

    2016-04-01

    A series of severe drought events in the Mediterranean region over the past two decades has posed a threat on both human society and biosystem. Holocene hydrological dynamics can offer valuable clues for understanding future climate and making proper adaption strategy. Here, we present a decadal-resolved stalagmite record documenting various hydroclimatic fluctuations in the north central Mediterranean region since the middle Holocene. The stalagmite δ18O sequence shows dramatic instability, characterized by abrupt shifts between dry and wet conditions Mycenaean Greece, Akkadian Empire, Egyptian Old Kingdom, and Uruk, occurred during the drought events, suggesting an important role of climate impact on human civilization. The unstable hydroclimate evolution is related to transferred North Atlantic Oscillation states. Rate of rapid transfer of precipitation patterns, which can be pin-pointed by our good chronology, improves the prediction to future climate changes in North Atlantic region. We also found that a strong correlation between this stalagmite δ18O and sea surface temperatures especially in Pacific Ocean. This agreement suggests a distant interregional climate teleconnection.

  20. Reconstruction of Holocene environmental changes in Southern Kurils (North-Western Pacific) based on palaeolake sediment proxies from Shikotan Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazarova, Larisa; Grebennikova, Tatiana A.; Razjigaeva, Nadezhda G.; Ganzey, Larisa A.; Belyanina, Nina I.; Arslanov, Khikmat A.; Kaistrenko, Victor M.; Gorbunov, Aleksey O.; Kharlamov, Andrey A.; Rudaya, Natalia; Palagushkina, Olga; Biskaborn, Boris K.; Diekmann, Bernhard

    2017-12-01

    We investigated a well-dated sediment section of a palaeolake situated in the coastal zone of Shikotan Island (Lesser Kurils) for organic sediment-geochemistry and biotic components (diatoms, chironomids, pollen) in order to provide a reconstruction of the palaeoenvironmental changes and palaeo-events (tsunamis, sea-level fluctuations and landslides) in Holocene. During the ca 8000 years of sedimentation the changes in organic sediment-geochemistry and in composition of the diatoms and chironomids as well as the shifts in composition of terrestrial vegetation suggest that the period until ca 5800 cal yr BP was characterized by a warm and humid climate (corresponds to middle Holocene optimum) with climate cooling thereafter. A warm period reconstructed from ca 900 to at least ca 580 cal yr BP corresponds to a transition to a Nara-Heian-Kamakura warm stage and can be correlated to a Medieval Warm Period. After 580 cal yr PB, the lake gradually dried out and climatic signals could not be obtained from the declining lacustrine biological communities, but the increasing role of spruce and disappearance of the oak from the vegetation give evidences of the climate cooling that can be correlated with the LIA. The marine regression stages at the investigated site are identified for ca 6200-5900 (at the end of the middle Holocene transgression), ca 5500-5100 (Middle Jomon regression or Kemigawa regression), and ca 1070-360 cal yr BP (at the end of Heian transgression). The lithological structure of sediments and the diatom compositions give evidences for the multiple tsunami events of different strengths in the Island. Most remarkable of them can be dated at around ca 7000, 6460, 5750, 4800, 950 cal yr BP. The new results help to understand the Holocene environmental history of the Southern Kurils as a part of the Kuril-Kamchatka and Aleutian Marginal Sea-Island Arc Systems in the North-Western Pacific region.

  1. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

    2016-03-01

    The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity. © 2015 APJPH.

  2. Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

    2014-05-01

    Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

  3. A Late Glacial to Holocene record of environmental change from Lake Dojran (Macedonia, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Francke

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available A Late Glacial to Holocene sediment sequence (Co1260, 717 cm from Lake Dojran, located at the boarder of the F.Y.R. of Macedonia and Greece, has been investigated to provide information on climate variability in the Balkan region. A robust age-model was established from 13 radiocarbon ages, and indicates that the base of the sequence was deposited at ca. 12 500 cal yr BP, when the lake-level was low. Variations in sedimentological (H2O, TOC, CaCO3, TS, TOC/TN, TOC/TS, grain-size, XRF, δ18Ocarb, δ13Ccarb, δ13Corg data were linked to hydro-acoustic data and indicate that warmer and more humid climate conditions characterised the remaining period of the Younger Dryas until the beginning of the Holocene. The Holocene exhibits significant environmental variations, including the 8.2 and 4.2 ka cooling events, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. Human induced erosion processes in the catchment of Lake Dojran intensified after 2800 cal yr BP.

  4. Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Kivinen

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available We studied climate trends and the occurrence of rare and extreme temperature and precipitation events in northern Fennoscandia in 1914–2013. Weather data were derived from nine observation stations located in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Russia. The results showed that spring and autumn temperatures and to a lesser extent summer temperatures increased significantly in the study region, the observed changes being the greatest for daily minimum temperatures. The number of frost days declined both in spring and autumn. Rarely cold winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons had a low occurrence and rarely warm spring and autumn seasons a high occurrence during the last 20-year interval (1994–2013, compared to the other 20-year intervals. That period was also characterized by a low number of days with extremely low temperature in all seasons (4–9% of all extremely cold days and a high number of April and October days with extremely high temperature (36–42% of all extremely warm days. A tendency of exceptionally high daily precipitation sums to grow even higher towards the end of the study period was also observed. To summarize, the results indicate a shortening of the cold season in northern Fennoscandia. Furthermore, the results suggest significant declines in extremely cold climate events in all seasons and increases in extremely warm climate events particularly in spring and autumn seasons.

  5. Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

    2016-04-01

    Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

  6. Antarctic Climate Change: Extreme Events Disrupt Plastic Phenotypic Response in Adélie Penguins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G.

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A ‘natural experiment’ brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The ‘natural experiment’ uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

  7. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amélie Lescroël

    Full Text Available In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  8. Development of FEP database for geological and climatic disruptive events. Uplift, subsidence, earthquake activity, and climate change (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakai, Ryutaro; Takeda, Seiji; Kimura, Hideo; Matsuba, Hisashi

    2011-06-01

    In the safety assessment for a geological disposal of radioactive waste such as high-level radioactive waste, it is necessary to estimate the hydrological environmental changes affected by external factors such as long-termed earthquake activity and volcanic activity. Therefore it is important to perform the informations including a wide range of future processes and conditions of engineered barriers and geosphere in a systematic manner and to construct scenarios considering external factors. Generation of geological and climatic disruptive events such as earthquake activity, volcanic activity, uplift, subsidence, climatic change and sea-level change and propagation process of their impacts and their types are needed to be clarified in order to understand the phenomena of their influence on a disposal system in case of our country. Japan Atomic Energy Agency started to develop FEP database including the correlation of FEPs and FEP data sheet. This paper presents the FEP data base of upheaval, submergence, earthquake activity and climate change in this study and also presents the results of the questionnaire survey to external experts to update the technical reliability and to keep the objective view in selecting the critical safety correlations. (author)

  9. Web processing service for climate impact and extreme weather event analyses. Flyingpigeon (Version 1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hempelmann, Nils; Ehbrecht, Carsten; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen; Brockmann, Patrick; Falk, Wolfgang; Hoffmann, Jörg; Kindermann, Stephan; Koziol, Ben; Nangini, Cathy; Radanovics, Sabine; Vautard, Robert; Yiou, Pascal

    2018-01-01

    Analyses of extreme weather events and their impacts often requires big data processing of ensembles of climate model simulations. Researchers generally proceed by downloading the data from the providers and processing the data files ;at home; with their own analysis processes. However, the growing amount of available climate model and observation data makes this procedure quite awkward. In addition, data processing knowledge is kept local, instead of being consolidated into a common resource of reusable code. These drawbacks can be mitigated by using a web processing service (WPS). A WPS hosts services such as data analysis processes that are accessible over the web, and can be installed close to the data archives. We developed a WPS named 'flyingpigeon' that communicates over an HTTP network protocol based on standards defined by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), to be used by climatologists and impact modelers as a tool for analyzing large datasets remotely. Here, we present the current processes we developed in flyingpigeon relating to commonly-used processes (preprocessing steps, spatial subsets at continent, country or region level, and climate indices) as well as methods for specific climate data analysis (weather regimes, analogues of circulation, segetal flora distribution, and species distribution models). We also developed a novel, browser-based interactive data visualization for circulation analogues, illustrating the flexibility of WPS in designing custom outputs. Bringing the software to the data instead of transferring the data to the code is becoming increasingly necessary, especially with the upcoming massive climate datasets.

  10. Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmaveer Singh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, past (1970-2005 as well as future long term (2011-2099 trends in various extreme events of temperature and precipitation have been investigated over selected hydro-meteorological stations in the Sutlej river basin. The ensembles of two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 models: third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model and Hadley Centre Coupled Model have been used for simulation of future daily time series of temperature (maximum and minimum and precipitation under A2 emission scenario. Large scale atmospheric variables of both models and National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets have been downscaled using statistical downscaling technique at individual stations. A total number of 25 extreme indices of temperature (14 and precipitation (11 as specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability are derived for the past and future periods. Trends in extreme indices are detected over time using the modified Mann-Kendall test method. The stations which have shown either decrease or no change in hot extreme events (i.e., maximum TMax, warm days, warm nights, maximum TMin, tropical nights, summer days and warm spell duration indicators for 1970–2005 and increase in cold extreme events (cool days, cool nights, frost days and cold spell duration indicators are predicted to increase and decrease respectively in the future. In addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also predicted.

  11. Holocene Lake and Shallow Water Sediments at Mograt Island, Sudan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dittrich Annett

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of stratigraphic excavation and soil studies carried out at Mograt Island, the largest of the Nilotic islands in Sudan. Due to its restricted insular environments, Holocene alluvial deposits were observed to be interlocked with archaeological remains of different periods, allowing for a combined chronostratigraphic approach to study both cultural and climatic events. To better understand the environmental context through soil components and pedological features at a microscopic scale, soil block samples were accordingly collected and studied by the application of soil micromorphology. This approach provides insights into the history of Nile terrace aggradation through the suspension of Nile sediment loads under stillwater conditions as well as of the periodical establishment of shallow water pools at the islands′ plateaus by the surface run-off from local rains. Since these patterns vary significantly from the present situation, they offer a key to the scenario in which specific early agricultural and animal herding practices evolved.

  12. Three distinct Holocene intervals of stalagmite deposition and nondeposition revealed in NW Madagascar, and their paleoclimate implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riavo Gilbertinie Voarintsoa, Ny; Railsback, Loren Bruce; Brook, George Albert; Wang, Lixin; Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Li, Xianglei; Edwards, Richard Lawrence; Rakotondrazafy, Amos Fety Michel; Olga Madison Razanatseheno, Marie

    2017-12-01

    Petrographic features, mineralogy, and stable isotopes from two stalagmites, ANJB-2 and MAJ-5, respectively from Anjohibe and Anjokipoty caves, allow distinction of three intervals of the Holocene in NW Madagascar. The Malagasy early Holocene (between ca. 9.8 and 7.8 ka) and late Holocene (after ca. 1.6 ka) intervals (MEHI and MLHI, respectively) record evidence of stalagmite deposition. The Malagasy middle Holocene interval (MMHI, between ca. 7.8 and 1.6 ka) is marked by a depositional hiatus of ca. 6500 years. Deposition of these stalagmites indicates that the two caves were sufficiently supplied with water to allow stalagmite formation. This suggests that the MEHI and MLHI intervals may have been comparatively wet in NW Madagascar. In contrast, the long-term depositional hiatus during the MMHI implies it was relatively drier than the MEHI and the MLHI. The alternating wet-dry-wet conditions during the Holocene may have been linked to the long-term migrations of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). When the ITCZ's mean position is farther south, NW Madagascar experiences wetter conditions, such as during the MEHI and MLHI, and when it moves north, NW Madagascar climate becomes drier, such as during the MMHI. A similar wet-dry-wet succession during the Holocene has been reported in neighboring locations, such as southeastern Africa. Beyond these three subdivisions, the records also suggest wet conditions around the cold 8.2 ka event, suggesting a causal relationship. However, additional Southern Hemisphere high-resolution data will be needed to confirm this.

  13. Climate Products and Services to Meet the Challenges of Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCalla, M. R.

    2008-12-01

    The 2002 Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM1)-sponsored report, Weather Information for Surface Transportation: National Needs Assessment Report, addressed meteorological needs for six core modes of surface transportation: roadway, railway, transit, marine transportation/operations, pipeline, and airport ground operations. The report's goal was to articulate the weather information needs and attendant surface transportation weather products and services for those entities that use, operate, and manage America's surface transportation infrastructure. The report documented weather thresholds and associated impacts which are critical for decision-making in surface transportation. More recently, the 2008 Climate Change Science Program's (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 4.7 entitled, Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I, included many of the impacts from the OFCM- sponsored report in Table 1.1 of this SAP.2 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that since 1950, there has been an increase in the number of heat waves, heavy precipitation events, and areas of drought. Moreover, the IPCC indicated that greater wind speeds could accompany more severe tropical cyclones.3 Taken together, the OFCM, CCSP, and IPCC reports indicate not only the significance of extreme events, but also the potential increasing significance of many of the weather thresholds and associated impacts which are critical for decision-making in surface transportation. Accordingly, there is a real and urgent need to understand what climate products and services are available now to address the weather thresholds within the surface transportation arena. It is equally urgent to understand what new climate products and services are needed to address these weather thresholds, and articulate what can be done to fill the gap between the

  14. Evolution of extreme temperature events in short term climate projection for Iberian Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Alfredo; Tarquis, Ana M.; Sanchez, Enrique; Dosio, Alessandro; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2014-05-01

    Extreme events of maximum and minimum temperatures are a main hazard for agricultural production in Iberian Peninsula. For this purpose, in this study we analyze projections of their evolution that could be valid for the next decade, represented in this study by the 30-year period 2004-2034 (target period). For this purpose two kinds of data were used in this study: 1) observations from the station network of AEMET (Spanish National Meteorological Agency) for five Spanish locations, and 2) simulated data at a resolution of 50 ×50 km horizontal grid derived from the outputs of twelve Regional Climate Models (RCMs) taken from project ENSEMBLES (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009), with a bias correction (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012) regarding the observational dataset Spain02 (Herrera et al., 2012). To validate the simulated climate, the available period of observations was compared to a baseline period (1964-1994) of simulated climate for all locations. Then, to analyze the changes for the present/very next future, probability of extreme temperature events for 2004-2034 were compared to that of the baseline period. Although only minor changes are expected, small variations in variability may have a significant impact in crop performance. The objective of the work is to evaluate the utility of these short term projections for potential users, as for instance insurance companies. References Dosio A. and Paruolo P., 2011. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 116,D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A., Paruolo P. and Rojas R., 2012. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research,Volume 117, D17, doi: 0.1029/2012JD017968 Herrera et. al. (2012) Development and Analysis of a 50 year high

  15. Investigating the impact of climate change on crop phenological events in Europe with a phenology model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Shaoxiu; Churkina, Galina; Trusilova, Kristina

    2012-07-01

    Predicting regional and global carbon and water dynamics requires a realistic representation of vegetation phenology. Vegetation models including cropland models exist (e.g. LPJmL, Daycent, SIBcrop, ORCHIDEE-STICS, PIXGRO) but they have various limitations in predicting cropland phenological events and their responses to climate change. Here, we investigate how leaf onset and offset days of major European croplands responded to changes in climate from 1971 to 2000 using a newly developed phenological model, which solely relies on climate data. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data measured with eddy covariance technique at seven sites in Europe were used to adjust model parameters for wheat, barley, and rapeseed. Observational data from the International Phenology Gardens were used to corroborate modeled phenological responses to changes in climate. Enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and a crop calendar were explored as alternative predictors of leaf onset and harvest days, respectively, over a large spatial scale. In each spatial model simulation, we assumed that all European croplands were covered by only one crop type. Given this assumption, the model estimated that the leaf onset days for wheat, barley, and rapeseed in Germany advanced by 1.6, 3.4, and 3.4 days per decade, respectively, during 1961-2000. The majority of European croplands (71.4%) had an advanced mean leaf onset day for wheat, barley, and rapeseed (7.0% significant), whereas 28.6% of European croplands had a delayed leaf onset day (0.9% significant) during 1971-2000. The trend of advanced onset days estimated by the model is similar to observations from the International Phenology Gardens in Europe. The developed phenological model can be integrated into a large-scale ecosystem model to simulate the dynamics of phenological events at different temporal and spatial scales. Crop calendars and enhanced vegetation index have substantial uncertainties in predicting phenological events of croplands. Caution

  16. Characteristics and Future Changes of Great Mississippi Flood Events in a Global Coupled Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Wiel, K.; Kapnick, S. B.; Vecchi, G.; Smith, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    The Mississippi-Missouri river catchment houses millions of people and much of the U.S. national agricultural production. Severe flooding events can therefore have large negative societal, natural and economic impacts. GFDL FLOR, a global coupled climate model (atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice with integrated river routing module) is used to investigate the characteristics of great Mississippi floods with an average return period of 100 years. Model experiments under pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing were conducted for 3400 years, such that the most extreme flooding events were explicitly modeled and the land and/or atmospheric causes could be investigated. It is shown that melt of snow pack and frozen sub-surface water in the Missouri and Upper Mississippi basins prime the river system, subsequently sensitizing it to above average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee basins. The months preceding the greatest flooding events are above average wet, leading to moist sub-surface conditions. Anomalous melt depends on the availability of frozen water in the catchment, therefore anomalous amounts of sub-surface frozen water and anomalous large snow pack in winter (Nov-Feb) make the river system susceptible for these great flooding events in spring (Feb-Apr). An additional experiment of 1200 years under transient greenhouse gas forcing (RCP4.5, 5 members) was done to investigate potential future change in flood risk. Based on a peak-over-threshold method, it is found that the number of great flooding events decreases in a warmer future. This decrease coincides with decreasing occurrence of large melt events, but is despite increasing numbers of large precipitation events. Though the model results indicate a decreasing risk for the greatest flooding events, the predictability of events might decrease in a warmer future given the changing characters of melt and precipitation.

  17. An unusual early Holocene diatom event north of the Getz Ice Shelf (Amundsen Sea): Implications for West Antarctic Ice Sheet development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esper, O.; Gersonde, R.; Hillenbrand, C.; Kuhn, G.; Smith, J.

    2011-12-01

    Modern global change affects not only the polar north but also, and to increasing extent, the southern high latitudes, especially the Antarctic regions covered by the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Consequently, knowledge of the mechanisms controlling past WAIS dynamics and WAIS behaviour at the last deglaciation is critical to predict its development in a future warming world. Geological and palaeobiological information from major drainage areas of the WAIS, like the Amundsen Sea Embayment, shed light on the history of the WAIS glaciers. Sediment records obtained from a deep inner shelf basin north of Getz Ice Shelf document a deglacial warming in three phases. Above a glacial diamicton and a sediment package barren of microfossils that document sediment deposition by grounded ice and below an ice shelf or perennial sea ice cover (possibly fast ice), respectively, a sediment section with diatom assemblages dominated by sea ice taxa indicates ice shelf retreat and seasonal ice-free conditions. This conclusion is supported by diatom-based summer temperature reconstructions. The early retreat was followed by a phase, when exceptional diatom ooze was deposited around 12,500 cal. years B.P. [1]. Microscopical inspection of this ooze revealed excellent preservation of diatom frustules of the species Corethron pennatum together with vegetative Chaetoceros, thus an assemblage usually not preserved in the sedimentary record. Sediments succeeding this section contain diatom assemblages indicating rather constant Holocene cold water conditions with seasonal sea ice. The deposition of the diatom ooze can be related to changes in hydrographic conditions including strong advection of nutrients. However, sediment focussing in the partly steep inner shelf basins cannot be excluded as a factor enhancing the thickness of the ooze deposits. It is not only the presence of the diatom ooze but also the exceptional preservation and the species composition of the diatom assemblage

  18. Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2015-05-01

    The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

  19. A climate-based multivariate extreme emulator of met-ocean-hydrological events for coastal flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camus, Paula; Rueda, Ana; Mendez, Fernando J.; Tomas, Antonio; Del Jesus, Manuel; Losada, Iñigo J.

    2015-04-01

    Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are useful to analyze large-scale climate variability (long-term historical periods, future climate projections). However, applications such as coastal flood modeling require climate information at finer scale. Besides, flooding events depend on multiple climate conditions: waves, surge levels from the open-ocean and river discharge caused by precipitation. Therefore, a multivariate statistical downscaling approach is adopted to reproduce relationships between variables and due to its low computational cost. The proposed method can be considered as a hybrid approach which combines a probabilistic weather type downscaling model with a stochastic weather generator component. Predictand distributions are reproduced modeling the relationship with AOGCM predictors based on a physical division in weather types (Camus et al., 2012). The multivariate dependence structure of the predictand (extreme events) is introduced linking the independent marginal distributions of the variables by a probabilistic copula regression (Ben Ayala et al., 2014). This hybrid approach is applied for the downscaling of AOGCM data to daily precipitation and maximum significant wave height and storm-surge in different locations along the Spanish coast. Reanalysis data is used to assess the proposed method. A commonly predictor for the three variables involved is classified using a regression-guided clustering algorithm. The most appropriate statistical model (general extreme value distribution, pareto distribution) for daily conditions is fitted. Stochastic simulation of the present climate is performed obtaining the set of hydraulic boundary conditions needed for high resolution coastal flood modeling. References: Camus, P., Menéndez, M., Méndez, F.J., Izaguirre, C., Espejo, A., Cánovas, V., Pérez, J., Rueda, A., Losada, I.J., Medina, R. (2014b). A weather-type statistical downscaling framework for ocean wave climate. Journal of

  20. Identifying evidence of climate change impact on extreme events in permeable chalk catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, A. P.; Nubert, S.

    2009-12-01

    The permeable chalk catchments of southern England are vital for the economy and well being of the UK. Not only important as a water resource, their freely draining soils support intensive agricultural production, and the rolling downs and chalk streams provide important habitants for many protected plant and animal species. Consequently, there are concerns about the potential impact of climate change on such catchments, particularly in relation to groundwater recharge. Of major concern are possible changes in extreme events, such as groundwater floods and droughts, as any increase in the frequency and/or severity of these has important consequences for water resources, ecological systems and local infrastructure. Studies of climate change impact on extreme events for such catchments have indicated that, under medium and high emissions scenarios, droughts are likely to become more severe whilst floods less so. However, given the uncertainties in such predictions and the inherent variability in historic data, producing definitive evidence of changes in flood/drought frequency/severity poses a significant challenge. Thus, there is a need for specific extreme event statistics that can be used as indicators of actual climate change in streamflow and groundwater level observations. Identifying such indicators that are sufficiently robust requires catchments with long historic time series data. One such catchment is the River Lavant, an intermittent chalk stream in West Sussex, UK. Located within this catchment is Chilgrove House, the site of the UK’s longest groundwater monitoring well (with a continuous record of water level observations of varying frequency dating back to 1836). Using a variety of meteorological datasets, the behaviour of the catchment has been modelled, from 1855 to present, using a 'leaky aquifer' conceptual model. Model calibration was based on observed daily streamflow, at a gauging station just outside the town of Chichester, from 1970. Long

  1. Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hlavčová, Kamila; Lapin, Milan; Valent, Peter; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Rončák, Peter

    2015-09-01

    In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia, a simple physically-based concept for climate change-induced changes in extreme 5-day precipitation totals is proposed in the paper. It utilizes regionally downscaled scenarios of the long-term monthly means of the air temperature, specific air humidity and precipitation projected for Central Slovakia by two regional (RCM) and two global circulation models (GCM). A simplified physically-based model for the calculation of short-term precipitation totals over the course of changing air temperatures, which is used to drive a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was proposed. In the paper a case study of this approach in the upper Hron river basin in Central Slovakia is presented. From the 1981-2010 period, 20 events of the basin's most extreme average of 5-day precipitation totals were selected. Only events with continual precipitation during 5 days were considered. These 5-day precipitation totals were modified according to the RCM and GCM-based scenarios for the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2075. For modelling runoff under changed 5-day precipitation totals, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model developed at the Slovak University of Technology was used. Changes in extreme mean daily discharges due to climate change were compared with the original flood events and discussed.

  2. Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, M. A.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 12, č. 12 (2016), s. 1-7 ISSN 1742-5689 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * extreme events * food security * winter wheat Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.579, year: 2016

  3. Glacial-interglacial changes and Holocene variations in Arabian Sea denitrification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaye, Birgit; Böll, Anna; Segschneider, Joachim; Burdanowitz, Nicole; Emeis, Kay-Christian; Ramaswamy, Venkitasubramani; Lahajnar, Niko; Lückge, Andreas; Rixen, Tim

    2018-01-01

    At present, the Arabian Sea has a permanent oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) at water depths between about 100 and 1200 m. Active denitrification in the upper part of the OMZ is recorded by enhanced δ15N values in the sediments. Sediment cores show a δ15N increase during the middle and late Holocene, which is contrary to the trend in the other two regions of water column denitrification in the eastern tropical North and South Pacific. We calculated composite sea surface temperature (SST) and δ15N ratios in time slices of 1000 years of the last 25 kyr to better understand the reasons for the establishment of the Arabian Sea OMZ and its response to changes in the Asian monsoon system. Low δ15N values of 4-7 ‰ during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and stadials (Younger Dryas and Heinrich events) suggest that denitrification was inactive or weak during Pleistocene cold phases, while warm interstadials (ISs) had elevated δ15N. Fast changes in upwelling intensities and OMZ ventilation from the Antarctic were responsible for these strong millennial-scale variations during the glacial. During the entire Holocene δ15N values > 6 ‰ indicate a relatively stable OMZ with enhanced denitrification. The OMZ develops parallel to the strengthening of the SW monsoon and monsoonal upwelling after the LGM. Despite the relatively stable climatic conditions of the Holocene, the δ15N records show regionally different trends in the Arabian Sea. In the upwelling areas in the western part of the basin, δ15N values are lower during the mid-Holocene (4.2-8.2 ka BP) compared to the late Holocene ( ventilation of the OMZ during the period of the most intense southwest monsoonal upwelling. In contrast, δ15N values in the northern and eastern Arabian Sea rose during the last 8 kyr. The displacement of the core of the OMZ from the region of maximum productivity in the western Arabian Sea to its present position in the northeast was established during the middle and late Holocene. This was

  4. Do changes in the frequency, magnitude and timing of extreme climatic events threaten the population viability of coastal birds?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Ens, Bruno J.; Heg, Dik; Brouwer, Lyanne; Krol, Johan; Maier, Martin; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Oosterbeek, Kees; Lok, Tamar; Eising, Corine M.; Koffijberg, Kees

    P>1. Climate change encompasses changes in both the means and the extremes of climatic variables, but the population consequences of the latter are intrinsically difficult to study. 2. We investigated whether the frequency, magnitude and timing of rare but catastrophic flooding events have changed

  5. Quantitative Temperature Reconstructions from Holocene and Late Glacial Lake Sediments in the Tropical Andes using Chironomidae (non-biting midges)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews-Bird, F.; Gosling, W. D.; Brooks, S. J.; Montoya, E.; Coe, A. L.

    2014-12-01

    Chironomidae (non-biting midges) is a family of two-winged aquatic insects of the order Diptera. They are globally distributed and one of the most diverse families within aquatic ecosystems. The insects are stenotopic, and the rapid turnover of species and their ability to colonise quickly favourable habitats means chironomids are extremely sensitive to environmental change, notably temperature. Through the development of quantitative temperature inference models chironomids have become important palaeoecological tools. Proxies capable of generating independent estimates of past climate are crucial to disentangling climate signals and ecosystem response in the palaeoecological record. This project has developed the first modern environmental calibration data set in order to use chironomids from the Tropical Andes as quantitative climate proxies. Using surface sediments from c. 60 lakes from Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador we have developed an inference model capable of reconstructing temperatures, with a prediction error of 1-2°C, from fossil assemblages. Here we present the first Lateglacial and Holocene chironomid-inferred temperature reconstructions from two sites in the tropical Andes. The first record, from a high elevation (4153 m asl) lake in the Bolivian Andes, shows persistently cool temperatures for the past 15 kyr, punctuated by warm episodes in the early Holocene (9-10 kyr BP). The chironomid-inferred Holocene temperature trends from a lake sediment record on the eastern Andean flank of Ecuador (1248 m asl) spanning the last 5 millennia are synchronous with temperature changes in the NGRIP ice core record. The temperature estimates suggest along the eastern flank of the Andes, at lower latitudes (~1°S), climate closely resemble the well-established fluctuations of the Northern Hemisphere for this time period. Late-glacial climate fluctuations across South America are still disputed with some palaeoecological records suggesting evidence for Younger Dryas

  6. Mountain Rivers and Climate Change: Analysis of hazardous events in torrents of small alpine watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutzmann, Silke; Sass, Oliver

    2016-04-01

    Torrential processes like flooding, heavy bedload transport or debris flows in steep mountain channels emerge during intense, highly localized rainfall events. They pose a serious risk on the densely populated Alpine region. Hydrogeomorphic hazards are profoundly nonlinear, threshold mediated phenomena frequently causing costly damage to infrastructure and people. Thus, in the context of climate change, there is an ever rising interest in whether sediment cascades of small alpine catchments react to changing precipitation patterns and how the climate signal is propagated through the fluvial system. We intend to answer the following research questions: (i) What are critical meteorological characteristics triggering torrential events in the Eastern Alps of Austria? (ii) The effect of external triggers is strongly mediated by the internal disposition of catchments to respond. Which factors control the internal susceptibility? (iii) Do torrential processes show an increase in magnitude and frequency or a shift in seasonality in the recent past? (iv) Which future changes can be expected under different climate scenarios? Quantifications of bedload transport in small alpine catchments are rare and often associated with high uncertainties. Detailed knowledge though exists for the Schöttlbach catchment, a 71 km2 study area in Styria in the Eastern Alps. The torrent is monitored since a heavy precipitation event resulted in a disastrous flood in July 2011. Sediment mobilisation from slopes as well as within-channel storage and fluxes are regularly measured by photogrammetric methods and sediment impact sensors (SIS). The associated hydro-meteorological conditions are known from a dense station network. Changing states of connectivity can thus be related to precipitation and internal dynamics (sediment availability, cut-and-fill cycles). The site-specific insights are then conceptualized for application to a broader scale. Therefore, a Styria wide database of torrential

  7. Projected health impacts of heat events in Washington State associated with climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaksen, Tania Busch; Yost, Michael; Hom, Elizabeth; Fenske, Richard

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and duration of extreme-heat events and associated health outcomes. This study used data from the historical heat-health outcome relationship, and a unique prediction model, to estimate mortality for 2025 and 2045. For each one degree change in humidex above threshold, we find a corresponding 1.83% increase in mortality for all ages, all non-traumatic causes of death in King County, Washington. Mortality is projected to increase significantly in 2025 and 2045 for the 85 and older age group (2.3-8.0 and 4.0-22.3 times higher than baseline, respectively).

  8. Assessment of future extreme climate events over the Porto wine Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viceto, Carolina; Cardoso, Susana; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Rocha, Alfredo

    2017-04-01

    to be produced (Porto and Douro wine), while climate variability affects the annual productivity and quality of the grape harvest. Our study investigates changes in the extreme climate events in the future model runs, through a set of climate change indicators defined by the WRCP's Expert Team in Climate Change Detection and Indices, which uses variables such as daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation amounts. Furthermore, we explore heat waves and their properties (duration, intensity and recovery factor). The analysis shows an increase of the mean temperature in the DDR higher than 2°C by the mid-21st century and 4.5°C by the end of the century, relatively to the reference period. Moreover, we found a major predisposition towards higher values of minimum and maximum daily temperatures and a decrease in the total precipitation during both future periods. These preliminary results indicate increased climatic stress on the DDR wine production and increased vulnerability of the wine varieties in this region.

  9. The Response of Different Audiences to Place-based Communication about the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halperin, A.; Walton, P.

    2015-12-01

    As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.

  10. What are the Best Practices of Using to Twitter in Climate Change Communication?: A Case Study of Two Climate Related Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeal, K.; Luginbuhl, S.; Ngo, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is a major environmental issue that is often discussed throughout the world using social media outlets. One major social media site that is commonly utilized by the public is Twitter, with over 300 million active users. Using a Twitter account and Ncapture we were able to collect tens of thousands of tweets around the COP21 event, a United Nations climate change conference held on Dec. 7-8, 2015 in Paris, and the 2015 Encyclical Release by the Pope, using the hashtags @climate, pope, and COP21. This research aimed to follow and collect tweets about what and who the major influencers on Twitter are concerning these events, and subsequently climate change in general, and what content was most persistent. Specifically, we examined Twitter users with high numbers of followers (>10,000), the number of re-tweets, the frequency of tweets, and the content of the tweet. We have tabulated the top 10 most influential Tweeters among each of the months (August, September, October, November and December) of 2015 leading up to and following the COP21 event, which included an array of Twitter users from NGOs, Politicians, Celebrities, Religious Leaders, Governmental Organizations, among others. We also examined tweets about climate change as they relate to the two events and interpret why these tweets may have persisted in the twitter space. From our observations, we have established some best practices in how to create climate messages that have high reach and longevity. We hope our results assist climate change communicators in understanding the role Twitter plays in regard to climate change discourse and how to most efficiently utilize it for reaching broad audiences and engaging them in the climate conversation.

  11. Vegetation response to extreme climate events on the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    John, Ranjeet; Chen Jiquan; Ouyang Zutao; Becker, Richard; Xiao Jingfeng; Samanta, Arindam; Ganguly, Sangram; Yuan Wenping; Batkhishig, Ochirbat

    2013-01-01

    Climate change has led to more frequent extreme winters (aka, dzud) and summer droughts on the Mongolian Plateau during the last decade. Among these events, the 2000–2002 combined summer drought–dzud and 2010 dzud were the most severe on vegetation. We examined the vegetation response to these extremes through the past decade across the Mongolian Plateau as compared to decadal means. We first assessed the severity and extent of drought using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). We then examined the effects of drought by mapping anomalies in vegetation indices (EVI, EVI2) and land surface temperature derived from MODIS and AVHRR for the period of 2000–2010. We found that the standardized anomalies of vegetation indices exhibited positively skewed frequency distributions in dry years, which were more common for the desert biome than for grasslands. For the desert biome, the dry years (2000–2001, 2005 and 2009) were characterized by negative anomalies with peak values between −1.5 and −0.5 and were statistically different (P 2 = 65 and 60, p 2 = 53, p < 0.05). Our results showed significant differences in the responses to extreme climatic events (summer drought and dzud) between the desert and grassland biomes on the Plateau. (letter)

  12. Simulation of Greenhouse Climate Monitoring and Control with Wireless Sensor Network and Event-Based Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Pawlowski

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring and control of the greenhouse environment play a decisive role in greenhouse production processes. Assurance of optimal climate conditions has a direct influence on crop growth performance, but it usually increases the required equipment cost. Traditionally, greenhouse installations have required a great effort to connect and distribute all the sensors and data acquisition systems. These installations need many data and power wires to be distributed along the greenhouses, making the system complex and expensive. For this reason, and others such as unavailability of distributed actuators, only individual sensors are usually located in a fixed point that is selected as representative of the overall greenhouse dynamics. On the other hand, the actuation system in greenhouses is usually composed by mechanical devices controlled by relays, being desirable to reduce the number of commutations of the control signals from security and economical point of views. Therefore, and in order to face these drawbacks, this paper describes how the greenhouse climate control can be represented as an event-based system in combination with wireless sensor networks, where low-frequency dynamics variables have to be controlled and control actions are mainly calculated against events produced by external disturbances. The proposed control system allows saving costs related with wear minimization and prolonging the actuator life, but keeping promising performance results. Analysis and conclusions are given by means of simulation results.

  13. Simulation of Greenhouse Climate Monitoring and Control with Wireless Sensor Network and Event-Based Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawlowski, Andrzej; Guzman, Jose Luis; Rodríguez, Francisco; Berenguel, Manuel; Sánchez, José; Dormido, Sebastián

    2009-01-01

    Monitoring and control of the greenhouse environment play a decisive role in greenhouse production processes. Assurance of optimal climate conditions has a direct influence on crop growth performance, but it usually increases the required equipment cost. Traditionally, greenhouse installations have required a great effort to connect and distribute all the sensors and data acquisition systems. These installations need many data and power wires to be distributed along the greenhouses, making the system complex and expensive. For this reason, and others such as unavailability of distributed actuators, only individual sensors are usually located in a fixed point that is selected as representative of the overall greenhouse dynamics. On the other hand, the actuation system in greenhouses is usually composed by mechanical devices controlled by relays, being desirable to reduce the number of commutations of the control signals from security and economical point of views. Therefore, and in order to face these drawbacks, this paper describes how the greenhouse climate control can be represented as an event-based system in combination with wireless sensor networks, where low-frequency dynamics variables have to be controlled and control actions are mainly calculated against events produced by external disturbances. The proposed control system allows saving costs related with wear minimization and prolonging the actuator life, but keeping promising performance results. Analysis and conclusions are given by means of simulation results. PMID:22389597

  14. Temporal characteristics of rainfall events under three climate types in Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolšak, Domen; Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca

    2016-10-01

    Temporal rainfall distribution can often have significant influence on other hydrological processes such as runoff generation or rainfall interception. High-frequency rainfall data from 30 stations in Slovenia were analysed in order to improve the knowledge about the temporal rainfall distribution within a rainfall event. Using the pre-processed rainfall data Huff curves were determined and the binary shape code (BSC) methodology was applied. Although Slovenia covers only about 20,000 km2, results indicate large temporal and spatial variability in the precipitation pattern of the analysed stations, which is in agreement with the different Slovenian climate types: sub-Mediterranean, temperate continental, and mountain climate. Statistically significant correlation was identified between the most frequent BSC types, mean annual precipitation, and rainfall erosivity for individual rainfall stations. Moreover, different temporal rainfall distributions were observed for rainfall events with shorter duration (less than 12 h) than those with longer duration (more than 24 h). Using the analysis of the Huff curves it was shown that the variability in the Huff curves decreases with increasing rainfall duration. Thus, it seems that for shorter duration convective storms a more diverse temporal rainfall distribution can be expected than for the longer duration frontal precipitation where temporal rainfall distribution shows less variability.

  15. An Assessment of Direct and Indirect Economic Losses of Climatic Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, C.; Willner, S. N.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Risk of extreme weather events like storms, heat extremes, and floods has already risen due to anthropogenic climate change and is likely to increase further under future global warming. Additionally, the structure of the global economy has changed importantly in the last decades. In the process of globalization, local economies have become more and more interwoven forming a complex network. Together with a trend towards lean production, this has resulted in a strong dependency of local manufacturers on global supply and value added chains, which may render the economic network more vulnerable to climatic extremes; outages of local manufacturers trigger indirect losses, which spread along supply chains and can even outstrip direct losses. Accordingly, in a comprehensive climate risk assessment these inter-linkages should be considered. Here, we present acclimate, an agent based dynamic damage propagation model. Its agents are production and consumption sites, which are interlinked by economic flows accounting for the complexity as well as the heterogeneity of the global supply network. Assessing the economic response on the timescale of the adverse event, the model permits to study temporal and spatial evolution of indirect production losses during the disaster and in the subsequent recovery phase of the economy. In this study, we focus on the dynamic economic resilience defined here as the ratio of direct to total losses. This implies that the resilience of the system under consideration is low if the high indirect losses are high. We find and assess a nonlinear dependence of the resilience on the disaster size. Further, we analyze the influence of the network structure upon resilience and discuss the potential of warehousing as an adaptation option.

  16. Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events: challenges and directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Visser, Marcel E

    2017-06-19

    More extreme climatic events (ECEs) are among the most prominent consequences of climate change. Despite a long-standing recognition of the importance of ECEs by paleo-ecologists and macro-evolutionary biologists, ECEs have only recently received a strong interest in the wider ecological and evolutionary community. However, as with many rapidly expanding fields, it lacks structure and cohesiveness, which strongly limits scientific progress. Furthermore, due to the descriptive and anecdotal nature of many ECE studies it is still unclear what the most relevant questions and long-term consequences are of ECEs. To improve synthesis, we first discuss ways to define ECEs that facilitate comparison among studies. We then argue that biologists should adhere to more rigorous attribution and mechanistic methods to assess ECE impacts. Subsequently, we discuss conceptual and methodological links with climatology and disturbance-, tipping point- and paleo-ecology. These research fields have close linkages with ECE research, but differ in the identity and/or the relative severity of environmental factors. By summarizing the contributions to this theme issue we draw parallels between behavioural, ecological and evolutionary ECE studies, and suggest that an overarching challenge is that most empirical and theoretical evidence points towards responses being highly idiosyncratic, and thus predictability being low. Finally, we suggest a roadmap based on the proposition that an increased focus on the mechanisms behind the biological response function will be crucial for increased understanding and predictability of the impacts of ECE.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  17. Neoglacial Antarctic sea-ice expansion driven by mid-Holocene retreat of the Ross Ice Shelf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendle, J. A.; Newton, K.; Mckay, R. M.; Crosta, X.; Etourneau, J.; Anya, A. B.; Seki, O.; Golledge, N. R.; Bertler, N. A. N.; Willmott, V.; Schouten, S.; Riesselman, C. R.; Masse, G.; Dunbar, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    Recent decades have seen expanding Antarctic sea-ice coverage, coeval with thinning West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) ice shelves and the rapid freshening of surface and bottom waters along the Antarctic margin. The mid-Holocene Neoglacial transition represents the last comparable baseline shift in sea-ice behaviour. The drivers and feedbacks involved in both the recent and Holocene events are poorly understood and characterised by large proxy-model mismatches. We present new records of compound specific fatty acid isotope analyses (δ2H-FA), highly-branched isoprenoid alkenes (HBIs) TEX86L temperatures, grain-size, mass accumulations rates (MARs) and image analyses from a 171m Holocene sediment sequence from Site U1357 (IODP leg 318). In combination with published records we reconstruct Holocene changes in glacial meltwater, sedimentary inputs and sea-ice. The early Holocene (11 to 10 ka) is characterised by large fluctuations in inputs of deglacial meltwater and sediments and seismic evidence of downlapping material from the south, suggesting a dominating influence from glacial retreat of the local outlet glaciers. From 10 to 8 ka there is decreasing meltwater inputs, an onlapping drift and advection of material from the east. After ca. 8 ka positively correlated δ2H-FA and MARs infer that pulses of glacial melt correlate to stronger easterly currents, driving erosion of material from upstream banks and that the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) becomes a major influence. A large mid-Holocene meltwater pulse (preceded by warming TEX86L temperatures) is evident between ca. 6 to 4.5 ka, culminating in a rapid and permanent increase in sea-ice from 4.5 ka. This is coeval with cosmogenic nuclide evidence for a rapid thinning of the Antarctic ice sheet during the mid-Holocene (Hein et al., 2016). We suggest this represents a final major pulse of deglaciation from the Ross Ice Shelf, which initiates the Neoglacial, driving cool surface waters along the coast and greater sea

  18. Paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental reconstruction for middle and late holocene in Uruguay southeastern New contributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Del Puerto, L.; Bracco, R.; Inda, H.; Garcia, F.; Panario, D.; Castineira, C.; Capdepont, I.

    2012-01-01

    This work is about the study carried out within the framework of the environmental evolution and the prehistoric human occupation on coastal lagoons in the east of Uruguay. The analysis of the sediments in the zone enable the reconstruction of the Holocene climate history as well as the construction of the Paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental model belong to the middle and late Holocene

  19. Impact of extreme weather events and climate change for health and social care systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Sarah; Fair, Alistair; Wistow, Jonathan; Val, Dimitri V; Oven, Katie

    2017-12-05

    This review, commissioned by the Research Councils UK Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) programme, concerns research on the impacts on health and social care systems in the United Kingdom of extreme weather events, under conditions of climate change. Extreme weather events considered include heatwaves, coldwaves and flooding. Using a structured review method, we consider evidence regarding the currently observed and anticipated future impacts of extreme weather on health and social care systems and the potential of preparedness and adaptation measures that may enhance resilience. We highlight a number of general conclusions which are likely to be of international relevance, although the review focussed on the situation in the UK. Extreme weather events impact the operation of health services through the effects on built, social and institutional infrastructures which support health and health care, and also because of changes in service demand as extreme weather impacts on human health. Strategic planning for extreme weather and impacts on the care system should be sensitive to within country variations. Adaptation will require changes to built infrastructure systems (including transport and utilities as well as individual care facilities) and also to institutional and social infrastructure supporting the health care system. Care sector organisations, communities and individuals need to adapt their practices to improve resilience of health and health care to extreme weather. Preparedness and emergency response strategies call for action extending beyond the emergency response services, to include health and social care providers more generally.

  20. Identifying Typhoon Tracks based on Event Synchronization derived Spatially Embedded Climate Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozturk, Ugur; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

    2017-04-01

    Complex networks are commonly used for investigating spatiotemporal dynamics of complex systems, e.g. extreme rainfall. Especially directed networks are very effective tools in identifying climatic patterns on spatially embedded networks. They can capture the network flux, so as the principal dynamics of spreading significant phenomena. Network measures, such as network divergence, bare the source-receptor relation of the directed networks. However, it is still a challenge how to catch fast evolving atmospheric events, i.e. typhoons. In this study, we propose a new technique, namely Radial Ranks, to detect the general pattern of typhoons forward direction based on the strength parameter of the event synchronization over Japan. We suggest to subset a circular zone of high correlation around the selected grid based on the strength parameter. Radial sums of the strength parameter along vectors within this zone, radial ranks are measured for potential directions, which allows us to trace the network flux over long distances. We employed also the delay parameter of event synchronization to identify and separate the frontal storms' and typhoons' individual behaviors.

  1. Climate change and forest fires synergistically drive widespread melt events of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keegan, Kaitlin M; Albert, Mary R; McConnell, Joseph R; Baker, Ian

    2014-06-03

    In July 2012, over 97% of the Greenland Ice Sheet experienced surface melt, the first widespread melt during the era of satellite remote sensing. Analysis of six Greenland shallow firn cores from the dry snow region confirms that the most recent prior widespread melt occurred in 1889. A firn core from the center of the ice sheet demonstrated that exceptionally warm temperatures combined with black carbon sediments from Northern Hemisphere forest fires reduced albedo below a critical threshold in the dry snow region, and caused the melting events in both 1889 and 2012. We use these data to project the frequency of widespread melt into the year 2100. Since Arctic temperatures and the frequency of forest fires are both expected to rise with climate change, our results suggest that widespread melt events on the Greenland Ice Sheet may begin to occur almost annually by the end of century. These events are likely to alter the surface mass balance of the ice sheet, leaving the surface susceptible to further melting.

  2. The resilience of postglacial hunter-gatherers to abrupt climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blockley, Simon; Candy, Ian; Matthews, Ian; Langdon, Pete; Langdon, Cath; Palmer, Adrian; Lincoln, Paul; Abrook, Ashley; Taylor, Barry; Conneller, Chantal; Bayliss, Alex; MacLeod, Alison; Deeprose, Laura; Darvill, Chris; Kearney, Rebecca; Beavan, Nancy; Staff, Richard; Bamforth, Michael; Taylor, Maisie; Milner, Nicky

    2018-05-01

    Understanding the resilience of early societies to climate change is an essential part of exploring the environmental sensitivity of human populations. There is significant interest in the role of abrupt climate events as a driver of early Holocene human activity, but there are very few well-dated records directly compared with local climate archives. Here, we present evidence from the internationally important Mesolithic site of Star Carr showing occupation during the early Holocene, which is directly compared with a high-resolution palaeoclimate record from neighbouring lake beds. We show that-once established-there was intensive human activity at the site for several hundred years when the community was subject to multiple, severe, abrupt climate events that impacted air temperatures, the landscape and the ecosystem of the region. However, these results show that occupation and activity at the site persisted regardless of the environmental stresses experienced by this society. The Star Carr population displayed a high level of resilience to climate change, suggesting that postglacial populations were not necessarily held hostage to the flickering switch of climate change. Instead, we show that local, intrinsic changes in the wetland environment were more significant in determining human activity than the large-scale abrupt early Holocene climate events.

  3. Towards a climate event stratigraphy for New Zealand over the past 30,000 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrell, D.J.A.; Alloway, B.V.; Shulmeister, J.; Newnham, R.M.

    2005-01-01

    A poster summarizing a representative selection of evidence for environmental conditions and climate change in New Zealand during the last 30,000 years has been prepared as a 'first-step' contribution to the INTIMATE (INTegration of Ice-core, Marine and TerrEstrial records) initiative of the INQUA Paleoclimate Commission. This international initiative aims to establish a more detailed knowledge of the nature, timing and regional to global extent of climatic and environmental changes associated with the Last Termination. The poster depicts key New Zealand onshore and offshore records for the Last Glacial Maximum and the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition, from a variety of latitudes and elevations. Inset maps show New Zealand's oceanographic setting, principal currents and water masses, extent of glaciers, and distribution of vegetation zones at approximately 22,000 calendar years ago and at modern times (incorporating the inferred vegetation distribution at c. 1250 AD, before deforestation associated with human settlement). A calendar-age timescale is based on a combination of volcanic ash (tephra) and radiometric dates. Paleoclimate records from ice cores from Antarctica and Greenland are presented for comparison with New Zealand records. High-resolution records are presented for sediment-filled volcanic craters in Auckland (total carbon, carbon isotopes and pollen), wetlands in northeast North Island, central North Island and western South Island (pollen), marine sediments off eastern North Island (oxygen isotopes), and stalagmites in caves in northwest South Island (carbon and oxygen isotopes). In addition, the poster includes a range of lower resolution or fragmentary records of climate events, based on glacial landforms and deposits (central Southern Alps, South Island), river terraces and deposits, loess deposits (eastern North and South Islands), and Aeolian quartz silt in non-quartzose, loess-like, andesitic tephric deposits of western North Island. The

  4. Observed Variability of Tsunamigenic Potential of Enormous Submarine Landslides Explained Through Modeling - A Comparison of the Holocene Storegga and Trænadjupet Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Løvholt, F.; Kim, J.; Laberg, J. S.

    2016-12-01

    The continental margin offshore Norway have experienced a range of giant submarine landslides having volumes ranging from hundreds to thousands of km3. The most recent and well documented of these events, are the 4500 BP Trænadjupet and the 8100 BP Storegga landslides. Both of these landslides are clay-rich, and involve common features such as retrogressive mass and momentum release mechanisms and weak layers that affect the tsunami generation. The retrogressive behaviour involved the release of several slide blocks which made the multistage failure and landslide evolution complex. The Storegga Slide reveals a rich and well documented onshore footprint in terms of paleotsunami deposits along the coastlines of Denmark, UK, the Faroe Islands, and Norway. In striking contrast, there exists no firm evidence of similar paleotsunami deposits from the younger Trænadjupet landslide. Here, we use a suit of new retrogressive and viscoplastic landslide models to simulate the run-out of both of these landslide events, and then couple the landslide to dispersive tsunami models. By using the new landslide models, we are able to obtain a better agreement with the observed paleotsunami deposits from the Storegga Slide compared to previous studies, and at the same time, to link the results to a landslide model that comply better with the slide morphology. Using the landslide model and soil parameters established for the Storegga Slide as the starting point, we set up a similar set of model scenarios for the Trænadjupet Slide. We discuss how the scenarios for the Trænadjupet landslide with different soil parameters produce different landslide velocities and tsunami heights. We then compare the resulting tsunami heights with constraints from the lack of onshore tsunami observations taking into account the contemporary shoreline position. Finally we briefly discuss the findings from the modeling in terms of both differences in tsunami observations and landslide morphology. The

  5. A high-resolution Holocene speleothem record from NE Romania: the nexus of Arctic and North Atlantic atmospheric circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constantin, S.; Pourmand, A.; Moldovan, O.; Sharifi, A.; Mehterian, S.; Swart, P. K.

    2017-12-01

    The Romanian Carpathians act as a geomorphological barrier between different atmospheric circulation systems over Central and Eastern Europe; the NW of Romania lies under the remote influence of the North Atlantic oscillation, while the NE is influenced by the Arctic climate. In NW Romania, previous stable isotope studies of speleothems have not yielded a clear account of abrupt climate oscillations during the Holocene. Here we present results from a stalagmite collected from the Tauşoare Cave, located in NE Carpathians. The chronology of stalagmite T141 is based on 15 high-precision Th/U dates ranging between 32 and 1.1 ka with a continuous growth between 13.3 and 1.1 ka. The portion of the record within the Holocene was analyzed for δ18O and δ13C at a resolution ranging between 15 to 200 years/sample. The resulting δ18O record captures the Younger Dryas (YD) event centered at 12.9 ka, with δ18O values about 4 ‰ more depleted than those corresponding to the Holocene Climatic Optimum. The 8.2 ka event appears to be also captured in the record, although less prominent. The T141 isotope record is significantly different when compared to coeval records measured in speleothems from NW Carpathians, which do not exhibit marked changes during the YD or 8.2 ka events. This is likely due to the contrasting effect of temperature and atmospheric transport on δ18O signal in NW Romania. Within a distance of 200 km to the east, on the eastern flank of the Carpathian range, the δ18O signal of the Arctic circulation appears to be more prominent and clearly exhibits a positive relationship with temperature changes.

  6. Corrigendum to "Upper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene Insolation Maximum – a model study" published in Clim. Past, 7, 1103–1122, 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Schmiedl

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Nine thousand years ago (9 ka BP, the Northern Hemisphere experienced enhanced seasonality caused by an orbital configuration close to the minimum of the precession index. To assess the impact of this "Holocene Insolation Maximum" (HIM on the Mediterranean Sea, we use a regional ocean general circulation model forced by atmospheric input derived from global simulations. A stronger seasonal cycle is simulated by the model, which shows a relatively homogeneous winter cooling and a summer warming with well-defined spatial patterns, in particular, a subsurface warming in the Cretan and western Levantine areas. The comparison between the SST simulated for the HIM and a reconstruction from planktonic foraminifera transfer functions shows a poor agreement, especially for summer, when the vertical temperature gradient is strong. As a novel approach, we propose a reinterpretation of the reconstruction, to consider the conditions throughout the upper water column rather than at a single depth. We claim that such a depth-integrated approach is more adequate for surface temperature comparison purposes in a situation where the upper ocean structure in the past was different from the present-day. In this case, the depth-integrated interpretation of the proxy data strongly improves the agreement between modelled and reconstructed temperature signal with the subsurface summer warming being recorded by both model and proxies, with a small shift to the south in the model results. The mechanisms responsible for the peculiar subsurface pattern are found to be a combination of enhanced downwelling and wind mixing due to strengthened Etesian winds, and enhanced thermal forcing due to the stronger summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Together, these processes induce a stronger heat transfer from the surface to the subsurface during late summer in the western Levantine; this leads to an enhanced heat piracy in this region, a process never identified before

  7. Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events - Risks and Perspectives for Water Management in Bavaria and Québec

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, R.

    2017-12-01

    There is as yet no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for `virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the

  8. Tambora and the mackerel year: phenology and fisheries during an extreme climate event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Karen E.; Leavenworth, William B.; Hall, Carolyn; Mattocks, Steven; Bittner, Steven M.; Klein, Emily; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Bryan, Alexander; Rosset, Julianne; Willis, Theodore V.; Carr, Benjamin H.; Jordaan, Adrian

    2017-01-01

    Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme climate events, yet responses of biological and human communities are poorly understood, particularly for aquatic ecosystems and fisheries. Retrospective analysis of known outcomes may provide insights into the nature of adaptations and trajectory of subsequent conditions. We consider the 1815 eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora and its impact on Gulf of Maine (GoM) coastal and riparian fisheries in 1816. Applying complex adaptive systems theory with historical methods, we analyzed fish export data and contemporary climate records to disclose human and piscine responses to Tambora’s extreme weather at different spatial and temporal scales while also considering sociopolitical influences. Results identified a tipping point in GoM fisheries induced by concatenating social and biological responses to extreme weather. Abnormal daily temperatures selectively affected targeted fish species—alewives, shad, herring, and mackerel—according to their migration and spawning phenologies and temperature tolerances. First to arrive, ale