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Sample records for histories accurately predict

  1. Predicting Falls in People with Multiple Sclerosis: Fall History Is as Accurate as More Complex Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle H. Cameron

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Many people with MS fall, but the best method for identifying those at increased fall risk is not known. Objective. To compare how accurately fall history, questionnaires, and physical tests predict future falls and injurious falls in people with MS. Methods. 52 people with MS were asked if they had fallen in the past 2 months and the past year. Subjects were also assessed with the Activities-specific Balance Confidence, Falls Efficacy Scale-International, and Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale-12 questionnaires, the Expanded Disability Status Scale, Timed 25-Foot Walk, and computerized dynamic posturography and recorded their falls daily for the following 6 months with calendars. The ability of baseline assessments to predict future falls was compared using receiver operator curves and logistic regression. Results. All tests individually provided similar fall prediction (area under the curve (AUC 0.60–0.75. A fall in the past year was the best predictor of falls (AUC 0.75, sensitivity 0.89, specificity 0.56 or injurious falls (AUC 0.69, sensitivity 0.96, specificity 0.41 in the following 6 months. Conclusion. Simply asking people with MS if they have fallen in the past year predicts future falls and injurious falls as well as more complex, expensive, or time-consuming approaches.

  2. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A; Tamir, Diana I

    2017-06-06

    Successful social interactions depend on people's ability to predict others' future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others' current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others' future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others' emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others' future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1-3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants' ratings of emotion transitions predicted others' experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation-valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind-inform participants' mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants' accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone.

  3. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A.; Tamir, Diana I.

    2017-01-01

    Successful social interactions depend on people’s ability to predict others’ future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others’ current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others’ future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others’ emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others’ future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1–3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants’ ratings of emotion transitions predicted others’ experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation—valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind—inform participants’ mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants’ accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone. PMID:28533373

  4. A new, accurate predictive model for incident hypertension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Völzke, Henry; Fung, Glenn; Ittermann, Till

    2013-01-01

    Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures.......Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures....

  5. Accurate Multisteps Traffic Flow Prediction Based on SVM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Mingheng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate traffic flow prediction is prerequisite and important for realizing intelligent traffic control and guidance, and it is also the objective requirement for intelligent traffic management. Due to the strong nonlinear, stochastic, time-varying characteristics of urban transport system, artificial intelligence methods such as support vector machine (SVM are now receiving more and more attentions in this research field. Compared with the traditional single-step prediction method, the multisteps prediction has the ability that can predict the traffic state trends over a certain period in the future. From the perspective of dynamic decision, it is far important than the current traffic condition obtained. Thus, in this paper, an accurate multi-steps traffic flow prediction model based on SVM was proposed. In which, the input vectors were comprised of actual traffic volume and four different types of input vectors were compared to verify their prediction performance with each other. Finally, the model was verified with actual data in the empirical analysis phase and the test results showed that the proposed SVM model had a good ability for traffic flow prediction and the SVM-HPT model outperformed the other three models for prediction.

  6. Highly Accurate Prediction of Jobs Runtime Classes

    OpenAIRE

    Reiner-Benaim, Anat; Grabarnick, Anna; Shmueli, Edi

    2016-01-01

    Separating the short jobs from the long is a known technique to improve scheduling performance. In this paper we describe a method we developed for accurately predicting the runtimes classes of the jobs to enable this separation. Our method uses the fact that the runtimes can be represented as a mixture of overlapping Gaussian distributions, in order to train a CART classifier to provide the prediction. The threshold that separates the short jobs from the long jobs is determined during the ev...

  7. ACCURATE UNIVERSAL MODELS FOR THE MASS ACCRETION HISTORIES AND CONCENTRATIONS OF DARK MATTER HALOS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, D. H.; Jing, Y. P.; Mo, H. J.; Boerner, G.

    2009-01-01

    A large amount of observations have constrained cosmological parameters and the initial density fluctuation spectrum to a very high accuracy. However, cosmological parameters change with time and the power index of the power spectrum dramatically varies with mass scale in the so-called concordance ΛCDM cosmology. Thus, any successful model for its structural evolution should work well simultaneously for various cosmological models and different power spectra. We use a large set of high-resolution N-body simulations of a variety of structure formation models (scale-free, standard CDM, open CDM, and ΛCDM) to study the mass accretion histories, the mass and redshift dependence of concentrations, and the concentration evolution histories of dark matter halos. We find that there is significant disagreement between the much-used empirical models in the literature and our simulations. Based on our simulation results, we find that the mass accretion rate of a halo is tightly correlated with a simple function of its mass, the redshift, parameters of the cosmology, and of the initial density fluctuation spectrum, which correctly disentangles the effects of all these factors and halo environments. We also find that the concentration of a halo is strongly correlated with the universe age when its progenitor on the mass accretion history first reaches 4% of its current mass. According to these correlations, we develop new empirical models for both the mass accretion histories and the concentration evolution histories of dark matter halos, and the latter can also be used to predict the mass and redshift dependence of halo concentrations. These models are accurate and universal: the same set of model parameters works well for different cosmological models and for halos of different masses at different redshifts, and in the ΛCDM case the model predictions match the simulation results very well even though halo mass is traced to about 0.0005 times the final mass, when

  8. Influential Factors for Accurate Load Prediction in a Demand Response Context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wollsen, Morten Gill; Kjærgaard, Mikkel Baun; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2016-01-01

    Accurate prediction of a buildings electricity load is crucial to respond to Demand Response events with an assessable load change. However, previous work on load prediction lacks to consider a wider set of possible data sources. In this paper we study different data scenarios to map the influence....... Next, the time of day that is being predicted greatly influence the prediction which is related to the weather pattern. By presenting these results we hope to improve the modeling of building loads and algorithms for Demand Response planning.......Accurate prediction of a buildings electricity load is crucial to respond to Demand Response events with an assessable load change. However, previous work on load prediction lacks to consider a wider set of possible data sources. In this paper we study different data scenarios to map the influence...

  9. Accurate predictions for the LHC made easy

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    The data recorded by the LHC experiments is of a very high quality. To get the most out of the data, precise theory predictions, including uncertainty estimates, are needed to reduce as much as possible theoretical bias in the experimental analyses. Recently, significant progress has been made in computing Next-to-Leading Order (NLO) computations, including matching to the parton shower, that allow for these accurate, hadron-level predictions. I shall discuss one of these efforts, the MadGraph5_aMC@NLO program, that aims at the complete automation of predictions at the NLO accuracy within the SM as well as New Physics theories. I’ll illustrate some of the theoretical ideas behind this program, show some selected applications to LHC physics, as well as describe the future plans.

  10. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately under climate change conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Inaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2014-05-01

    The onset of the growing season of trees has been globally earlier by 2.3 days/decade during the last 50 years because of global warming and this trend is predicted to continue according to climate forecast. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is however not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud dormancy, and on the other hand higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cells growth afterwards. Increasing phenological changes in temperate woody species have strong impacts on forest trees distribution and productivity, as well as crops cultivation areas. Accurate predictions of trees phenology are therefore a prerequisite to understand and foresee the impacts of climate change on forests and agrosystems. Different process-based models have been developed in the last two decades to predict the date of budburst or flowering of woody species. They are two main families: (1) one-phase models which consider only the ecodormancy phase and make the assumption that endodormancy is always broken before adequate climatic conditions for cell growth occur; and (2) two-phase models which consider both the endodormancy and ecodormancy phases and predict a date of dormancy break which varies from year to year. So far, one-phase models have been able to predict accurately tree bud break and flowering under historical climate. However, because they do not consider what happens prior to ecodormancy, and especially the possible negative effect of winter temperature warming on dormancy break, it seems unlikely that they can provide accurate predictions in future climate conditions. It is indeed well known that a lack of low temperature results in abnormal pattern of bud break and development in temperate fruit trees. An accurate modelling of the dormancy break date has thus become a major issue in phenology modelling. Two-phases phenological models predict that global warming should delay

  11. Prediction of Accurate Mixed Mode Fatigue Crack Growth Curves using the Paris' Law

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    Sajith, S.; Krishna Murthy, K. S. R.; Robi, P. S.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate information regarding crack growth times and structural strength as a function of the crack size is mandatory in damage tolerance analysis. Various equivalent stress intensity factor (SIF) models are available for prediction of mixed mode fatigue life using the Paris' law. In the present investigation these models have been compared to assess their efficacy in prediction of the life close to the experimental findings as there are no guidelines/suggestions available on selection of these models for accurate and/or conservative predictions of fatigue life. Within the limitations of availability of experimental data and currently available numerical simulation techniques, the results of present study attempts to outline models that would provide accurate and conservative life predictions.

  12. Producing accurate wave propagation time histories using the global matrix method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obenchain, Matthew B; Cesnik, Carlos E S

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a reliable method for producing accurate displacement time histories for wave propagation in laminated plates using the global matrix method. The existence of inward and outward propagating waves in the general solution is highlighted while examining the axisymmetric case of a circular actuator on an aluminum plate. Problems with previous attempts to isolate the outward wave for anisotropic laminates are shown. The updated method develops a correction signal that can be added to the original time history solution to cancel the inward wave and leave only the outward propagating wave. The paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the new method for circular and square actuators bonded to the surface of isotropic laminates, and these results are compared with exact solutions. Results for circular actuators on cross-ply laminates are also presented and compared with experimental results, showing the ability of the new method to successfully capture the displacement time histories for composite laminates. (paper)

  13. NNLOPS accurate predictions for $W^+W^-$ production arXiv

    CERN Document Server

    Re, Emanuele; Zanderighi, Giulia

    We present novel predictions for the production of $W^+W^-$ pairs in hadron collisions that are next-to-next-to-leading order accurate and consistently matched to a parton shower (NNLOPS). All diagrams that lead to the process $pp\\to e^- \\bar \

  14. ASTRAL, DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict stroke outcome more accurately than physicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntaios, G; Gioulekas, F; Papavasileiou, V; Strbian, D; Michel, P

    2016-11-01

    ASTRAL, SEDAN and DRAGON scores are three well-validated scores for stroke outcome prediction. Whether these scores predict stroke outcome more accurately compared with physicians interested in stroke was investigated. Physicians interested in stroke were invited to an online anonymous survey to provide outcome estimates in randomly allocated structured scenarios of recent real-life stroke patients. Their estimates were compared to scores' predictions in the same scenarios. An estimate was considered accurate if it was within 95% confidence intervals of actual outcome. In all, 244 participants from 32 different countries responded assessing 720 real scenarios and 2636 outcomes. The majority of physicians' estimates were inaccurate (1422/2636, 53.9%). 400 (56.8%) of physicians' estimates about the percentage probability of 3-month modified Rankin score (mRS) > 2 were accurate compared with 609 (86.5%) of ASTRAL score estimates (P DRAGON score estimates (P DRAGON score estimates (P DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict outcome of acute ischaemic stroke patients with higher accuracy compared to physicians interested in stroke. © 2016 EAN.

  15. Applying conversation analysis to foster accurate reporting in the diet history interview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapsell, L C; Brenninger, V; Barnard, J

    2000-07-01

    Inaccuracy in reporting dietary intakes is a major problem in managing diet-related disease. There is no single best method of dietary assessment, but the diet history lends itself well to the clinical setting. In many diet histories data are collected orally, so analysis of interviews can provide insights into reporting behaviors. Conversation analysis is a qualitative method that describes the systematic organization of talk between people. Patterns are identified and checked for consistency within and among individual interviews. The aim of this study was to describe consistent ways of reporting diet histories and to identify conversational features of problematic reporting. Diet history interviews from 62 overweight and insulin-resistant adult volunteers (50 women, 12 men) attending an outpatient clinic and 14 healthy volunteers (7 men, 7 women) participating in an energy balance study were audiotaped and transcribed. Conversation analysis identified a remarkably consistent pattern of reporting diet histories and 3 conversational features that indicated problematic reporting: "it depends," denoting variability (least of all at breakfast); "probably," suggesting guesswork (related to portion sizes); and elaborated talk on certain foods, distinguishing sensitive topics (e.g., alcohol, chocolate, butter/margarine, take-out foods) from safe topics. These findings indicate that there are ways in which dietetics practitioners may conduct the diet history interview to foster more accurate reporting.

  16. Life history theory predicts fish assemblage response to hydrologic regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mims, Meryl C; Olden, Julian D

    2012-01-01

    The hydrologic regime is regarded as the primary driver of freshwater ecosystems, structuring the physical habitat template, providing connectivity, framing biotic interactions, and ultimately selecting for specific life histories of aquatic organisms. In the present study, we tested ecological theory predicting directional relationships between major dimensions of the flow regime and life history composition of fish assemblages in perennial free-flowing rivers throughout the continental United States. Using long-term discharge records and fish trait and survey data for 109 stream locations, we found that 11 out of 18 relationships (61%) tested between the three life history strategies (opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium) and six hydrologic metrics (two each describing flow variability, predictability, and seasonality) were statistically significant (P history strategies, with 82% of all significant relationships observed supporting predictions from life history theory. Specifically, we found that (1) opportunistic strategists were positively related to measures of flow variability and negatively related to predictability and seasonality, (2) periodic strategists were positively related to high flow seasonality and negatively related to variability, and (3) the equilibrium strategists were negatively related to flow variability and positively related to predictability. Our study provides important empirical evidence illustrating the value of using life history theory to understand both the patterns and processes by which fish assemblage structure is shaped by adaptation to natural regimes of variability, predictability, and seasonality of critical flow events over broad biogeographic scales.

  17. Towards cycle-accurate performance predictions for real-time embedded systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Triantafyllidis, K.; Bondarev, E.; With, de P.H.N.; Arabnia, H.R.; Deligiannidis, L.; Jandieri, G.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we present a model-based performance analysis method for component-based real-time systems, featuring cycle-accurate predictions of latencies and enhanced system robustness. The method incorporates the following phases: (a) instruction-level profiling of SW components, (b) modeling the

  18. Accurate Prediction of Motor Failures by Application of Multi CBM Tools: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutta, Rana; Singh, Veerendra Pratap; Dwivedi, Jai Prakash

    2018-02-01

    Motor failures are very difficult to predict accurately with a single condition-monitoring tool as both electrical and the mechanical systems are closely related. Electrical problem, like phase unbalance, stator winding insulation failures can, at times, lead to vibration problem and at the same time mechanical failures like bearing failure, leads to rotor eccentricity. In this case study of a 550 kW blower motor it has been shown that a rotor bar crack was detected by current signature analysis and vibration monitoring confirmed the same. In later months in a similar motor vibration monitoring predicted bearing failure and current signature analysis confirmed the same. In both the cases, after dismantling the motor, the predictions were found to be accurate. In this paper we will be discussing the accurate predictions of motor failures through use of multi condition monitoring tools with two case studies.

  19. Predicting life-history adaptations to pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maltby, L. [Univ. of Sheffield (United Kingdom). Dept. of Animal and Plant Sciences

    1995-12-31

    Animals may adapt to pollutant stress so that individuals from polluted environments are less susceptible than those from unpolluted environments. In addition to such direct adaptations, animals may respond to pollutant stress by life-history modifications; so-called indirect adaptations. This paper will demonstrate how, by combining life-history theory and toxicological data, it is possible to predict stress-induced alterations in reproductive output and offspring size. Pollutant-induced alterations in age-specific survival in favor of adults and reductions in juvenile growth, conditions are predicted to select for reduced investment in reproduction and the allocation of this investment into fewer, larger offspring. Field observations on the freshwater crustaceans, Asellus aquaticus and Gammarus pulex, support these predictions. Females from metal-polluted sites had lower investment in reproduction and produced larger offspring than females of the same species from unpolluted sites. Moreover, interpopulation differences in reproductive biology persisted in laboratory cultures indicating that they had a genetic basis and were therefore due to adaptation rather than acclimation. The general applicability of this approach will be considered.

  20. Accurate approximation method for prediction of class I MHC affinities for peptides of length 8, 10 and 11 using prediction tools trained on 9mers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundegaard, Claus; Lund, Ole; Nielsen, Morten

    2008-01-01

    Several accurate prediction systems have been developed for prediction of class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC):peptide binding. Most of these are trained on binding affinity data of primarily 9mer peptides. Here, we show how prediction methods trained on 9mer data can be used for accurate...

  1. Heart rate during basketball game play and volleyball drills accurately predicts oxygen uptake and energy expenditure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scribbans, T D; Berg, K; Narazaki, K; Janssen, I; Gurd, B J

    2015-09-01

    There is currently little information regarding the ability of metabolic prediction equations to accurately predict oxygen uptake and exercise intensity from heart rate (HR) during intermittent sport. The purpose of the present study was to develop and, cross-validate equations appropriate for accurately predicting oxygen cost (VO2) and energy expenditure from HR during intermittent sport participation. Eleven healthy adult males (19.9±1.1yrs) were recruited to establish the relationship between %VO2peak and %HRmax during low-intensity steady state endurance (END), moderate-intensity interval (MOD) and high intensity-interval exercise (HI), as performed on a cycle ergometer. Three equations (END, MOD, and HI) for predicting %VO2peak based on %HRmax were developed. HR and VO2 were directly measured during basketball games (6 male, 20.8±1.0 yrs; 6 female, 20.0±1.3yrs) and volleyball drills (12 female; 20.8±1.0yrs). Comparisons were made between measured and predicted VO2 and energy expenditure using the 3 equations developed and 2 previously published equations. The END and MOD equations accurately predicted VO2 and energy expenditure, while the HI equation underestimated, and the previously published equations systematically overestimated VO2 and energy expenditure. Intermittent sport VO2 and energy expenditure can be accurately predicted from heart rate data using either the END (%VO2peak=%HRmax x 1.008-17.17) or MOD (%VO2peak=%HRmax x 1.2-32) equations. These 2 simple equations provide an accessible and cost-effective method for accurate estimation of exercise intensity and energy expenditure during intermittent sport.

  2. PredictSNP: robust and accurate consensus classifier for prediction of disease-related mutations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Bendl

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Single nucleotide variants represent a prevalent form of genetic variation. Mutations in the coding regions are frequently associated with the development of various genetic diseases. Computational tools for the prediction of the effects of mutations on protein function are very important for analysis of single nucleotide variants and their prioritization for experimental characterization. Many computational tools are already widely employed for this purpose. Unfortunately, their comparison and further improvement is hindered by large overlaps between the training datasets and benchmark datasets, which lead to biased and overly optimistic reported performances. In this study, we have constructed three independent datasets by removing all duplicities, inconsistencies and mutations previously used in the training of evaluated tools. The benchmark dataset containing over 43,000 mutations was employed for the unbiased evaluation of eight established prediction tools: MAPP, nsSNPAnalyzer, PANTHER, PhD-SNP, PolyPhen-1, PolyPhen-2, SIFT and SNAP. The six best performing tools were combined into a consensus classifier PredictSNP, resulting into significantly improved prediction performance, and at the same time returned results for all mutations, confirming that consensus prediction represents an accurate and robust alternative to the predictions delivered by individual tools. A user-friendly web interface enables easy access to all eight prediction tools, the consensus classifier PredictSNP and annotations from the Protein Mutant Database and the UniProt database. The web server and the datasets are freely available to the academic community at http://loschmidt.chemi.muni.cz/predictsnp.

  3. A new, accurate predictive model for incident hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Völzke, Henry; Fung, Glenn; Ittermann, Till; Yu, Shipeng; Baumeister, Sebastian E; Dörr, Marcus; Lieb, Wolfgang; Völker, Uwe; Linneberg, Allan; Jørgensen, Torben; Felix, Stephan B; Rettig, Rainer; Rao, Bharat; Kroemer, Heyo K

    2013-11-01

    Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures. The primary study population consisted of 1605 normotensive individuals aged 20-79 years with 5-year follow-up from the population-based study, that is the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP). The initial set was randomly split into a training and a testing set. We used a probabilistic graphical model applying a Bayesian network to create a predictive model for incident hypertension and compared the predictive performance with the established Framingham risk score for hypertension. Finally, the model was validated in 2887 participants from INTER99, a Danish community-based intervention study. In the training set of SHIP data, the Bayesian network used a small subset of relevant baseline features including age, mean arterial pressure, rs16998073, serum glucose and urinary albumin concentrations. Furthermore, we detected relevant interactions between age and serum glucose as well as between rs16998073 and urinary albumin concentrations [area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC 0.76)]. The model was confirmed in the SHIP validation set (AUC 0.78) and externally replicated in INTER99 (AUC 0.77). Compared to the established Framingham risk score for hypertension, the predictive performance of the new model was similar in the SHIP validation set and moderately better in INTER99. Data mining procedures identified a predictive model for incident hypertension, which included innovative and easy-to-measure variables. The findings promise great applicability in screening settings and clinical practice.

  4. An Overview of Practical Applications of Protein Disorder Prediction and Drive for Faster, More Accurate Predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Xin; Gumm, Jordan; Karki, Suman; Eickholt, Jesse; Cheng, Jianlin

    2015-07-07

    Protein disordered regions are segments of a protein chain that do not adopt a stable structure. Thus far, a variety of protein disorder prediction methods have been developed and have been widely used, not only in traditional bioinformatics domains, including protein structure prediction, protein structure determination and function annotation, but also in many other biomedical fields. The relationship between intrinsically-disordered proteins and some human diseases has played a significant role in disorder prediction in disease identification and epidemiological investigations. Disordered proteins can also serve as potential targets for drug discovery with an emphasis on the disordered-to-ordered transition in the disordered binding regions, and this has led to substantial research in drug discovery or design based on protein disordered region prediction. Furthermore, protein disorder prediction has also been applied to healthcare by predicting the disease risk of mutations in patients and studying the mechanistic basis of diseases. As the applications of disorder prediction increase, so too does the need to make quick and accurate predictions. To fill this need, we also present a new approach to predict protein residue disorder using wide sequence windows that is applicable on the genomic scale.

  5. An Overview of Practical Applications of Protein Disorder Prediction and Drive for Faster, More Accurate Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Deng

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Protein disordered regions are segments of a protein chain that do not adopt a stable structure. Thus far, a variety of protein disorder prediction methods have been developed and have been widely used, not only in traditional bioinformatics domains, including protein structure prediction, protein structure determination and function annotation, but also in many other biomedical fields. The relationship between intrinsically-disordered proteins and some human diseases has played a significant role in disorder prediction in disease identification and epidemiological investigations. Disordered proteins can also serve as potential targets for drug discovery with an emphasis on the disordered-to-ordered transition in the disordered binding regions, and this has led to substantial research in drug discovery or design based on protein disordered region prediction. Furthermore, protein disorder prediction has also been applied to healthcare by predicting the disease risk of mutations in patients and studying the mechanistic basis of diseases. As the applications of disorder prediction increase, so too does the need to make quick and accurate predictions. To fill this need, we also present a new approach to predict protein residue disorder using wide sequence windows that is applicable on the genomic scale.

  6. Multi-fidelity machine learning models for accurate bandgap predictions of solids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pilania, Ghanshyam; Gubernatis, James E.; Lookman, Turab

    2016-01-01

    Here, we present a multi-fidelity co-kriging statistical learning framework that combines variable-fidelity quantum mechanical calculations of bandgaps to generate a machine-learned model that enables low-cost accurate predictions of the bandgaps at the highest fidelity level. Additionally, the adopted Gaussian process regression formulation allows us to predict the underlying uncertainties as a measure of our confidence in the predictions. In using a set of 600 elpasolite compounds as an example dataset and using semi-local and hybrid exchange correlation functionals within density functional theory as two levels of fidelities, we demonstrate the excellent learning performance of the method against actual high fidelity quantum mechanical calculations of the bandgaps. The presented statistical learning method is not restricted to bandgaps or electronic structure methods and extends the utility of high throughput property predictions in a significant way.

  7. Rapid and accurate prediction and scoring of water molecules in protein binding sites.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory A Ross

    Full Text Available Water plays a critical role in ligand-protein interactions. However, it is still challenging to predict accurately not only where water molecules prefer to bind, but also which of those water molecules might be displaceable. The latter is often seen as a route to optimizing affinity of potential drug candidates. Using a protocol we call WaterDock, we show that the freely available AutoDock Vina tool can be used to predict accurately the binding sites of water molecules. WaterDock was validated using data from X-ray crystallography, neutron diffraction and molecular dynamics simulations and correctly predicted 97% of the water molecules in the test set. In addition, we combined data-mining, heuristic and machine learning techniques to develop probabilistic water molecule classifiers. When applied to WaterDock predictions in the Astex Diverse Set of protein ligand complexes, we could identify whether a water molecule was conserved or displaced to an accuracy of 75%. A second model predicted whether water molecules were displaced by polar groups or by non-polar groups to an accuracy of 80%. These results should prove useful for anyone wishing to undertake rational design of new compounds where the displacement of water molecules is being considered as a route to improved affinity.

  8. Differential contribution of visual and auditory information to accurately predict the direction and rotational motion of a visual stimulus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Seoung Hoon; Kim, Seonjin; Kwon, MinHyuk; Christou, Evangelos A

    2016-03-01

    Vision and auditory information are critical for perception and to enhance the ability of an individual to respond accurately to a stimulus. However, it is unknown whether visual and auditory information contribute differentially to identify the direction and rotational motion of the stimulus. The purpose of this study was to determine the ability of an individual to accurately predict the direction and rotational motion of the stimulus based on visual and auditory information. In this study, we recruited 9 expert table-tennis players and used table-tennis service as our experimental model. Participants watched recorded services with different levels of visual and auditory information. The goal was to anticipate the direction of the service (left or right) and the rotational motion of service (topspin, sidespin, or cut). We recorded their responses and quantified the following outcomes: (i) directional accuracy and (ii) rotational motion accuracy. The response accuracy was the accurate predictions relative to the total number of trials. The ability of the participants to predict the direction of the service accurately increased with additional visual information but not with auditory information. In contrast, the ability of the participants to predict the rotational motion of the service accurately increased with the addition of auditory information to visual information but not with additional visual information alone. In conclusion, this finding demonstrates that visual information enhances the ability of an individual to accurately predict the direction of the stimulus, whereas additional auditory information enhances the ability of an individual to accurately predict the rotational motion of stimulus.

  9. Searching for an Accurate Marker-Based Prediction of an Individual Quantitative Trait in Molecular Plant Breeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yong-Bi; Yang, Mo-Hua; Zeng, Fangqin; Biligetu, Bill

    2017-01-01

    Molecular plant breeding with the aid of molecular markers has played an important role in modern plant breeding over the last two decades. Many marker-based predictions for quantitative traits have been made to enhance parental selection, but the trait prediction accuracy remains generally low, even with the aid of dense, genome-wide SNP markers. To search for more accurate trait-specific prediction with informative SNP markers, we conducted a literature review on the prediction issues in molecular plant breeding and on the applicability of an RNA-Seq technique for developing function-associated specific trait (FAST) SNP markers. To understand whether and how FAST SNP markers could enhance trait prediction, we also performed a theoretical reasoning on the effectiveness of these markers in a trait-specific prediction, and verified the reasoning through computer simulation. To the end, the search yielded an alternative to regular genomic selection with FAST SNP markers that could be explored to achieve more accurate trait-specific prediction. Continuous search for better alternatives is encouraged to enhance marker-based predictions for an individual quantitative trait in molecular plant breeding.

  10. A Novel Fibrosis Index Comprising a Non-Cholesterol Sterol Accurately Predicts HCV-Related Liver Cirrhosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ydreborg, Magdalena; Lisovskaja, Vera; Lagging, Martin

    2014-01-01

    of the present study was to create a model for accurate prediction of liver cirrhosis based on patient characteristics and biomarkers of liver fibrosis, including a panel of non-cholesterol sterols reflecting cholesterol synthesis and absorption and secretion. We evaluated variables with potential predictive...

  11. LocARNA-P: Accurate boundary prediction and improved detection of structural RNAs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Will, Sebastian; Joshi, Tejal; Hofacker, Ivo L.

    2012-01-01

    Current genomic screens for noncoding RNAs (ncRNAs) predict a large number of genomic regions containing potential structural ncRNAs. The analysis of these data requires highly accurate prediction of ncRNA boundaries and discrimination of promising candidate ncRNAs from weak predictions. Existing...... methods struggle with these goals because they rely on sequence-based multiple sequence alignments, which regularly misalign RNA structure and therefore do not support identification of structural similarities. To overcome this limitation, we compute columnwise and global reliabilities of alignments based...... on sequence and structure similarity; we refer to these structure-based alignment reliabilities as STARs. The columnwise STARs of alignments, or STAR profiles, provide a versatile tool for the manual and automatic analysis of ncRNAs. In particular, we improve the boundary prediction of the widely used nc...

  12. Do Dual-Route Models Accurately Predict Reading and Spelling Performance in Individuals with Acquired Alexia and Agraphia?

    OpenAIRE

    Rapcsak, Steven Z.; Henry, Maya L.; Teague, Sommer L.; Carnahan, Susan D.; Beeson, Pélagie M.

    2007-01-01

    Coltheart and colleagues (Coltheart, Rastle, Perry, Langdon, & Ziegler, 2001; Castles, Bates, & Coltheart, 2006) have demonstrated that an equation derived from dual-route theory accurately predicts reading performance in young normal readers and in children with reading impairment due to developmental dyslexia or stroke. In this paper we present evidence that the dual-route equation and a related multiple regression model also accurately predict both reading and spelling performance in adult...

  13. Towards accurate performance prediction of a vertical axis wind turbine operating at different tip speed ratios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rezaeiha, A.; Kalkman, I.; Blocken, B.J.E.

    2017-01-01

    Accurate prediction of the performance of a vertical-axis wind turbine (VAWT) using CFD simulation requires the employment of a sufficiently fine azimuthal increment (dθ) combined with a mesh size at which essential flow characteristics can be accurately resolved. Furthermore, the domain size needs

  14. Bayesian calibration of power plant models for accurate performance prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boksteen, Sowande Z.; Buijtenen, Jos P. van; Pecnik, Rene; Vecht, Dick van der

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Bayesian calibration is applied to power plant performance prediction. • Measurements from a plant in operation are used for model calibration. • A gas turbine performance model and steam cycle model are calibrated. • An integrated plant model is derived. • Part load efficiency is accurately predicted as a function of ambient conditions. - Abstract: Gas turbine combined cycles are expected to play an increasingly important role in the balancing of supply and demand in future energy markets. Thermodynamic modeling of these energy systems is frequently applied to assist in decision making processes related to the management of plant operation and maintenance. In most cases, model inputs, parameters and outputs are treated as deterministic quantities and plant operators make decisions with limited or no regard of uncertainties. As the steady integration of wind and solar energy into the energy market induces extra uncertainties, part load operation and reliability are becoming increasingly important. In the current study, methods are proposed to not only quantify various types of uncertainties in measurements and plant model parameters using measured data, but to also assess their effect on various aspects of performance prediction. The authors aim to account for model parameter and measurement uncertainty, and for systematic discrepancy of models with respect to reality. For this purpose, the Bayesian calibration framework of Kennedy and O’Hagan is used, which is especially suitable for high-dimensional industrial problems. The article derives a calibrated model of the plant efficiency as a function of ambient conditions and operational parameters, which is also accurate in part load. The article shows that complete statistical modeling of power plants not only enhances process models, but can also increases confidence in operational decisions

  15. Learning Language Levels in Students Accurate with a History Academic Achievement History

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noorlela Binti Noordin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This study was aimed to evaluate the Malay proficiency among students in Form Two especially non-Malay students and its relationship to academic achievement History. To achieve the purpose of the study there are two objectives, the first is to look at the difference between mean of Malay Language test influences min of academic achievement of History subject among non-Malay students in Form Two and the second is the relationship between the level of Malay proficiency and their academic achievement for History. This study used quantitative methods, which involved 100 people of Form Two non-Malay students in one of the schools in Klang, Selangor. This study used quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and statistical inference with IBM SPSS Statistics v22 software. This study found that there was a relationship between the proficiency of Malay language among non-Malay students with achievements in the subject of History. The implications of this study are discussed in this article.

  16. Accurate Holdup Calculations with Predictive Modeling & Data Integration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Azmy, Yousry [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering; Cacuci, Dan [Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2017-04-03

    In facilities that process special nuclear material (SNM) it is important to account accurately for the fissile material that enters and leaves the plant. Although there are many stages and processes through which materials must be traced and measured, the focus of this project is material that is “held-up” in equipment, pipes, and ducts during normal operation and that can accumulate over time into significant quantities. Accurately estimating the holdup is essential for proper SNM accounting (vis-à-vis nuclear non-proliferation), criticality and radiation safety, waste management, and efficient plant operation. Usually it is not possible to directly measure the holdup quantity and location, so these must be inferred from measured radiation fields, primarily gamma and less frequently neutrons. Current methods to quantify holdup, i.e. Generalized Geometry Holdup (GGH), primarily rely on simple source configurations and crude radiation transport models aided by ad hoc correction factors. This project seeks an alternate method of performing measurement-based holdup calculations using a predictive model that employs state-of-the-art radiation transport codes capable of accurately simulating such situations. Inverse and data assimilation methods use the forward transport model to search for a source configuration that best matches the measured data and simultaneously provide an estimate of the level of confidence in the correctness of such configuration. In this work the holdup problem is re-interpreted as an inverse problem that is under-determined, hence may permit multiple solutions. A probabilistic approach is applied to solving the resulting inverse problem. This approach rates possible solutions according to their plausibility given the measurements and initial information. This is accomplished through the use of Bayes’ Theorem that resolves the issue of multiple solutions by giving an estimate of the probability of observing each possible solution. To use

  17. Fast and Accurate Prediction of Stratified Steel Temperature During Holding Period of Ladle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deodhar, Anirudh; Singh, Umesh; Shukla, Rishabh; Gautham, B. P.; Singh, Amarendra K.

    2017-04-01

    Thermal stratification of liquid steel in a ladle during the holding period and the teeming operation has a direct bearing on the superheat available at the caster and hence on the caster set points such as casting speed and cooling rates. The changes in the caster set points are typically carried out based on temperature measurements at the end of tundish outlet. Thermal prediction models provide advance knowledge of the influence of process and design parameters on the steel temperature at various stages. Therefore, they can be used in making accurate decisions about the caster set points in real time. However, this requires both fast and accurate thermal prediction models. In this work, we develop a surrogate model for the prediction of thermal stratification using data extracted from a set of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, pre-determined using design of experiments technique. Regression method is used for training the predictor. The model predicts the stratified temperature profile instantaneously, for a given set of process parameters such as initial steel temperature, refractory heat content, slag thickness, and holding time. More than 96 pct of the predicted values are within an error range of ±5 K (±5 °C), when compared against corresponding CFD results. Considering its accuracy and computational efficiency, the model can be extended for thermal control of casting operations. This work also sets a benchmark for developing similar thermal models for downstream processes such as tundish and caster.

  18. Accurate prediction of the enthalpies of formation for xanthophylls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lii, Jenn-Huei; Liao, Fu-Xing; Hu, Ching-Han

    2011-11-30

    This study investigates the applications of computational approaches in the prediction of enthalpies of formation (ΔH(f)) for C-, H-, and O-containing compounds. Molecular mechanics (MM4) molecular mechanics method, density functional theory (DFT) combined with the atomic equivalent (AE) and group equivalent (GE) schemes, and DFT-based correlation corrected atomization (CCAZ) were used. We emphasized on the application to xanthophylls, C-, H-, and O-containing carotenoids which consist of ∼ 100 atoms and extended π-delocaization systems. Within the training set, MM4 predictions are more accurate than those obtained using AE and GE; however a systematic underestimation was observed in the extended systems. ΔH(f) for the training set molecules predicted by CCAZ combined with DFT are in very good agreement with the G3 results. The average absolute deviations (AADs) of CCAZ combined with B3LYP and MPWB1K are 0.38 and 0.53 kcal/mol compared with the G3 data, and are 0.74 and 0.69 kcal/mol compared with the available experimental data, respectively. Consistency of the CCAZ approach for the selected xanthophylls is revealed by the AAD of 2.68 kcal/mol between B3LYP-CCAZ and MPWB1K-CCAZ. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Searching for an Accurate Marker-Based Prediction of an Individual Quantitative Trait in Molecular Plant Breeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong-Bi Fu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Molecular plant breeding with the aid of molecular markers has played an important role in modern plant breeding over the last two decades. Many marker-based predictions for quantitative traits have been made to enhance parental selection, but the trait prediction accuracy remains generally low, even with the aid of dense, genome-wide SNP markers. To search for more accurate trait-specific prediction with informative SNP markers, we conducted a literature review on the prediction issues in molecular plant breeding and on the applicability of an RNA-Seq technique for developing function-associated specific trait (FAST SNP markers. To understand whether and how FAST SNP markers could enhance trait prediction, we also performed a theoretical reasoning on the effectiveness of these markers in a trait-specific prediction, and verified the reasoning through computer simulation. To the end, the search yielded an alternative to regular genomic selection with FAST SNP markers that could be explored to achieve more accurate trait-specific prediction. Continuous search for better alternatives is encouraged to enhance marker-based predictions for an individual quantitative trait in molecular plant breeding.

  20. Searching for an Accurate Marker-Based Prediction of an Individual Quantitative Trait in Molecular Plant Breeding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yong-Bi; Yang, Mo-Hua; Zeng, Fangqin; Biligetu, Bill

    2017-01-01

    Molecular plant breeding with the aid of molecular markers has played an important role in modern plant breeding over the last two decades. Many marker-based predictions for quantitative traits have been made to enhance parental selection, but the trait prediction accuracy remains generally low, even with the aid of dense, genome-wide SNP markers. To search for more accurate trait-specific prediction with informative SNP markers, we conducted a literature review on the prediction issues in molecular plant breeding and on the applicability of an RNA-Seq technique for developing function-associated specific trait (FAST) SNP markers. To understand whether and how FAST SNP markers could enhance trait prediction, we also performed a theoretical reasoning on the effectiveness of these markers in a trait-specific prediction, and verified the reasoning through computer simulation. To the end, the search yielded an alternative to regular genomic selection with FAST SNP markers that could be explored to achieve more accurate trait-specific prediction. Continuous search for better alternatives is encouraged to enhance marker-based predictions for an individual quantitative trait in molecular plant breeding. PMID:28729875

  1. XenoSite: accurately predicting CYP-mediated sites of metabolism with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaretzki, Jed; Matlock, Matthew; Swamidass, S Joshua

    2013-12-23

    Understanding how xenobiotic molecules are metabolized is important because it influences the safety, efficacy, and dose of medicines and how they can be modified to improve these properties. The cytochrome P450s (CYPs) are proteins responsible for metabolizing 90% of drugs on the market, and many computational methods can predict which atomic sites of a molecule--sites of metabolism (SOMs)--are modified during CYP-mediated metabolism. This study improves on prior methods of predicting CYP-mediated SOMs by using new descriptors and machine learning based on neural networks. The new method, XenoSite, is faster to train and more accurate by as much as 4% or 5% for some isozymes. Furthermore, some "incorrect" predictions made by XenoSite were subsequently validated as correct predictions by revaluation of the source literature. Moreover, XenoSite output is interpretable as a probability, which reflects both the confidence of the model that a particular atom is metabolized and the statistical likelihood that its prediction for that atom is correct.

  2. Accurate reconstruction of insertion-deletion histories by statistical phylogenetics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Westesson

    Full Text Available The Multiple Sequence Alignment (MSA is a computational abstraction that represents a partial summary either of indel history, or of structural similarity. Taking the former view (indel history, it is possible to use formal automata theory to generalize the phylogenetic likelihood framework for finite substitution models (Dayhoff's probability matrices and Felsenstein's pruning algorithm to arbitrary-length sequences. In this paper, we report results of a simulation-based benchmark of several methods for reconstruction of indel history. The methods tested include a relatively new algorithm for statistical marginalization of MSAs that sums over a stochastically-sampled ensemble of the most probable evolutionary histories. For mammalian evolutionary parameters on several different trees, the single most likely history sampled by our algorithm appears less biased than histories reconstructed by other MSA methods. The algorithm can also be used for alignment-free inference, where the MSA is explicitly summed out of the analysis. As an illustration of our method, we discuss reconstruction of the evolutionary histories of human protein-coding genes.

  3. Microbiome Data Accurately Predicts the Postmortem Interval Using Random Forest Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aeriel Belk

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Death investigations often include an effort to establish the postmortem interval (PMI in cases in which the time of death is uncertain. The postmortem interval can lead to the identification of the deceased and the validation of witness statements and suspect alibis. Recent research has demonstrated that microbes provide an accurate clock that starts at death and relies on ecological change in the microbial communities that normally inhabit a body and its surrounding environment. Here, we explore how to build the most robust Random Forest regression models for prediction of PMI by testing models built on different sample types (gravesoil, skin of the torso, skin of the head, gene markers (16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA, 18S rRNA, internal transcribed spacer regions (ITS, and taxonomic levels (sequence variants, species, genus, etc.. We also tested whether particular suites of indicator microbes were informative across different datasets. Generally, results indicate that the most accurate models for predicting PMI were built using gravesoil and skin data using the 16S rRNA genetic marker at the taxonomic level of phyla. Additionally, several phyla consistently contributed highly to model accuracy and may be candidate indicators of PMI.

  4. Towards Accurate Prediction of Unbalance Response, Oil Whirl and Oil Whip of Flexible Rotors Supported by Hydrodynamic Bearings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rob Eling

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Journal bearings are used to support rotors in a wide range of applications. In order to ensure reliable operation, accurate analyses of these rotor-bearing systems are crucial. Coupled analysis of the rotor and the journal bearing is essential in the case that the rotor is flexible. The accuracy of prediction of the model at hand depends on its comprehensiveness. In this study, we construct three bearing models of increasing modeling comprehensiveness and use these to predict the response of two different rotor-bearing systems. The main goal is to evaluate the correlation with measurement data as a function of modeling comprehensiveness: 1D versus 2D pressure prediction, distributed versus lumped thermal model, Newtonian versus non-Newtonian fluid description and non-mass-conservative versus mass-conservative cavitation description. We conclude that all three models predict the existence of critical speeds and whirl for both rotor-bearing systems. However, the two more comprehensive models in general show better correlation with measurement data in terms of frequency and amplitude. Furthermore, we conclude that a thermal network model comprising temperature predictions of the bearing surroundings is essential to obtain accurate predictions. The results of this study aid in developing accurate and computationally-efficient models of flexible rotors supported by plain journal bearings.

  5. Accurate wavelength prediction of photonic crystal resonant reflection and applications in refractive index measurement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermannsson, Pétur Gordon; Vannahme, Christoph; Smith, Cameron L. C.

    2014-01-01

    and superstrate materials. The importance of accounting for material dispersion in order to obtain accurate simulation results is highlighted, and a method for doing so using an iterative approach is demonstrated. Furthermore, an application for the model is demonstrated, in which the material dispersion......In the past decade, photonic crystal resonant reflectors have been increasingly used as the basis for label-free biochemical assays in lab-on-a-chip applications. In both designing and interpreting experimental results, an accurate model describing the optical behavior of such structures...... is essential. Here, an analytical method for precisely predicting the absolute positions of resonantly reflected wavelengths is presented. The model is experimentally verified to be highly accurate using nanoreplicated, polymer-based photonic crystal grating reflectors with varying grating periods...

  6. Meta-analytic approach to the accurate prediction of secreted virulence effectors in gram-negative bacteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sato Yoshiharu

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many pathogens use a type III secretion system to translocate virulence proteins (called effectors in order to adapt to the host environment. To date, many prediction tools for effector identification have been developed. However, these tools are insufficiently accurate for producing a list of putative effectors that can be applied directly for labor-intensive experimental verification. This also suggests that important features of effectors have yet to be fully characterized. Results In this study, we have constructed an accurate approach to predicting secreted virulence effectors from Gram-negative bacteria. This consists of a support vector machine-based discriminant analysis followed by a simple criteria-based filtering. The accuracy was assessed by estimating the average number of true positives in the top-20 ranking in the genome-wide screening. In the validation, 10 sets of 20 training and 20 testing examples were randomly selected from 40 known effectors of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium LT2. On average, the SVM portion of our system predicted 9.7 true positives from 20 testing examples in the top-20 of the prediction. Removal of the N-terminal instability, codon adaptation index and ProtParam indices decreased the score to 7.6, 8.9 and 7.9, respectively. These discrimination features suggested that the following characteristics of effectors had been uncovered: unstable N-terminus, non-optimal codon usage, hydrophilic, and less aliphathic. The secondary filtering process represented by coexpression analysis and domain distribution analysis further refined the average true positive counts to 12.3. We further confirmed that our system can correctly predict known effectors of P. syringae DC3000, strongly indicating its feasibility. Conclusions We have successfully developed an accurate prediction system for screening effectors on a genome-wide scale. We confirmed the accuracy of our system by external validation

  7. At the Nexus of History, Ecology, and Hydrobiogeochemistry: Improved Predictions across Scales through Integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stegen, James C

    2018-01-01

    To improve predictions of ecosystem function in future environments, we need to integrate the ecological and environmental histories experienced by microbial communities with hydrobiogeochemistry across scales. A key issue is whether we can derive generalizable scaling relationships that describe this multiscale integration. There is a strong foundation for addressing these challenges. We have the ability to infer ecological history with null models and reveal impacts of environmental history through laboratory and field experimentation. Recent developments also provide opportunities to inform ecosystem models with targeted omics data. A major next step is coupling knowledge derived from such studies with multiscale modeling frameworks that are predictive under non-steady-state conditions. This is particularly true for systems spanning dynamic interfaces, which are often hot spots of hydrobiogeochemical function. We can advance predictive capabilities through a holistic perspective focused on the nexus of history, ecology, and hydrobiogeochemistry.

  8. Bohmian histories and decoherent histories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartle, James B.

    2004-01-01

    The predictions of the Bohmian and the decoherent (or consistent) histories formulations of the quantum mechanics of a closed system are compared for histories--sequences of alternatives at a series of times. For certain kinds of histories, Bohmian mechanics and decoherent histories may both be formulated in the same mathematical framework within which they can be compared. In that framework, Bohmian mechanics and decoherent histories represent a given history by different operators. Their predictions for the probabilities of histories of a closed system therefore generally differ. However, in an idealized model of measurement, the predictions of Bohmian mechanics and decoherent histories coincide for the probabilities of records of measurement outcomes. The formulations are thus difficult to distinguish experimentally. They may differ in their accounts of the past history of the Universe in quantum cosmology

  9. ChIP-seq Accurately Predicts Tissue-Specific Activity of Enhancers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Visel, Axel; Blow, Matthew J.; Li, Zirong; Zhang, Tao; Akiyama, Jennifer A.; Holt, Amy; Plajzer-Frick, Ingrid; Shoukry, Malak; Wright, Crystal; Chen, Feng; Afzal, Veena; Ren, Bing; Rubin, Edward M.; Pennacchio, Len A.

    2009-02-01

    A major yet unresolved quest in decoding the human genome is the identification of the regulatory sequences that control the spatial and temporal expression of genes. Distant-acting transcriptional enhancers are particularly challenging to uncover since they are scattered amongst the vast non-coding portion of the genome. Evolutionary sequence constraint can facilitate the discovery of enhancers, but fails to predict when and where they are active in vivo. Here, we performed chromatin immunoprecipitation with the enhancer-associated protein p300, followed by massively-parallel sequencing, to map several thousand in vivo binding sites of p300 in mouse embryonic forebrain, midbrain, and limb tissue. We tested 86 of these sequences in a transgenic mouse assay, which in nearly all cases revealed reproducible enhancer activity in those tissues predicted by p300 binding. Our results indicate that in vivo mapping of p300 binding is a highly accurate means for identifying enhancers and their associated activities and suggest that such datasets will be useful to study the role of tissue-specific enhancers in human biology and disease on a genome-wide scale.

  10. Accurate cut-offs for predicting endoscopic activity and mucosal healing in Crohn's disease with fecal calprotectin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan María Vázquez-Morón

    Full Text Available Background: Fecal biomarkers, especially fecal calprotectin, are useful for predicting endoscopic activity in Crohn's disease; however, the cut-off point remains unclear. The aim of this paper was to analyze whether faecal calprotectin and M2 pyruvate kinase are good tools for generating highly accurate scores for the prediction of the state of endoscopic activity and mucosal healing. Methods: The simple endoscopic score for Crohn's disease and the Crohn's disease activity index was calculated for 71 patients diagnosed with Crohn's. Fecal calprotectin and M2-PK were measured by the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay test. Results: A fecal calprotectin cut-off concentration of ≥ 170 µg/g (sensitivity 77.6%, specificity 95.5% and likelihood ratio +17.06 predicts a high probability of endoscopic activity, and a fecal calprotectin cut-off of ≤ 71 µg/g (sensitivity 95.9%, specificity 52.3% and likelihood ratio -0.08 predicts a high probability of mucosal healing. Three clinical groups were identified according to the data obtained: endoscopic activity (calprotectin ≥ 170, mucosal healing (calprotectin ≤ 71 and uncertainty (71 > calprotectin < 170, with significant differences in endoscopic values (F = 26.407, p < 0.01. Clinical activity or remission modified the probabilities of presenting endoscopic activity (100% vs 89% or mucosal healing (75% vs 87% in the diagnostic scores generated. M2-PK was insufficiently accurate to determine scores. Conclusions: The highly accurate scores for fecal calprotectin provide a useful tool for interpreting the probabilities of presenting endoscopic activity or mucosal healing, and are valuable in the specific clinical context.

  11. Machine learning predictions of molecular properties: Accurate many-body potentials and nonlocality in chemical space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, Katja; Biegler, Franziska; Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan; Pronobis, Wiktor; Lilienfeld, O. Anatole von; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Tkatchenko, Alexandre

    2015-01-01

    Simultaneously accurate and efficient prediction of molecular properties throughout chemical compound space is a critical ingredient toward rational compound design in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Aiming toward this goal, we develop and apply a systematic hierarchy of efficient empirical methods to estimate atomization and total energies of molecules. These methods range from a simple sum over atoms, to addition of bond energies, to pairwise interatomic force fields, reaching to the more sophisticated machine learning approaches that are capable of describing collective interactions between many atoms or bonds. In the case of equilibrium molecular geometries, even simple pairwise force fields demonstrate prediction accuracy comparable to benchmark energies calculated using density functional theory with hybrid exchange-correlation functionals; however, accounting for the collective many-body interactions proves to be essential for approaching the 'holy grail' of chemical accuracy of 1 kcal/mol for both equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium geometries. This remarkable accuracy is achieved by a vectorized representation of molecules (so-called Bag of Bonds model) that exhibits strong nonlocality in chemical space. The same representation allows us to predict accurate electronic properties of molecules, such as their polarizability and molecular frontier orbital energies

  12. Predicting loss of evolutionary history: Where are we?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veron, Simon; Davies, T Jonathan; Cadotte, Marc W; Clergeau, Philippe; Pavoine, Sandrine

    2017-02-01

    The Earth's evolutionary history is threatened by species loss in the current sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history. Such extinction events not only eliminate species but also their unique evolutionary histories. Here we review the expected loss of Earth's evolutionary history quantified by phylogenetic diversity (PD) and evolutionary distinctiveness (ED) at risk. Due to the general paucity of data, global evolutionary history losses have been predicted for only a few groups, such as mammals, birds, amphibians, plants, corals and fishes. Among these groups, there is now empirical support that extinction threats are clustered on the phylogeny; however this is not always a sufficient condition to cause higher loss of phylogenetic diversity in comparison to a scenario of random extinctions. Extinctions of the most evolutionarily distinct species and the shape of phylogenetic trees are additional factors that can elevate losses of evolutionary history. Consequently, impacts of species extinctions differ among groups and regions, and even if global losses are low within large groups, losses can be high among subgroups or within some regions. Further, we show that PD and ED are poorly protected by current conservation practices. While evolutionary history can be indirectly protected by current conservation schemes, optimizing its preservation requires integrating phylogenetic indices with those that capture rarity and extinction risk. Measures based on PD and ED could bring solutions to conservation issues, however they are still rarely used in practice, probably because the reasons to protect evolutionary history are not clear for practitioners or due to a lack of data. However, important advances have been made in the availability of phylogenetic trees and methods for their construction, as well as assessments of extinction risk. Some challenges remain, and looking forward, research should prioritize the assessment of expected PD and ED loss for more taxonomic

  13. DisoMCS: Accurately Predicting Protein Intrinsically Disordered Regions Using a Multi-Class Conservative Score Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiheng Wang

    Full Text Available The precise prediction of protein intrinsically disordered regions, which play a crucial role in biological procedures, is a necessary prerequisite to further the understanding of the principles and mechanisms of protein function. Here, we propose a novel predictor, DisoMCS, which is a more accurate predictor of protein intrinsically disordered regions. The DisoMCS bases on an original multi-class conservative score (MCS obtained by sequence-order/disorder alignment. Initially, near-disorder regions are defined on fragments located at both the terminus of an ordered region connecting a disordered region. Then the multi-class conservative score is generated by sequence alignment against a known structure database and represented as order, near-disorder and disorder conservative scores. The MCS of each amino acid has three elements: order, near-disorder and disorder profiles. Finally, the MCS is exploited as features to identify disordered regions in sequences. DisoMCS utilizes a non-redundant data set as the training set, MCS and predicted secondary structure as features, and a conditional random field as the classification algorithm. In predicted near-disorder regions a residue is determined as an order or a disorder according to the optimized decision threshold. DisoMCS was evaluated by cross-validation, large-scale prediction, independent tests and CASP (Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction tests. All results confirmed that DisoMCS was very competitive in terms of accuracy of prediction when compared with well-established publicly available disordered region predictors. It also indicated our approach was more accurate when a query has higher homologous with the knowledge database.The DisoMCS is available at http://cal.tongji.edu.cn/disorder/.

  14. Simple Mathematical Models Do Not Accurately Predict Early SIV Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia Noecker

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Upon infection of a new host, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV replicates in the mucosal tissues and is generally undetectable in circulation for 1–2 weeks post-infection. Several interventions against HIV including vaccines and antiretroviral prophylaxis target virus replication at this earliest stage of infection. Mathematical models have been used to understand how HIV spreads from mucosal tissues systemically and what impact vaccination and/or antiretroviral prophylaxis has on viral eradication. Because predictions of such models have been rarely compared to experimental data, it remains unclear which processes included in these models are critical for predicting early HIV dynamics. Here we modified the “standard” mathematical model of HIV infection to include two populations of infected cells: cells that are actively producing the virus and cells that are transitioning into virus production mode. We evaluated the effects of several poorly known parameters on infection outcomes in this model and compared model predictions to experimental data on infection of non-human primates with variable doses of simian immunodifficiency virus (SIV. First, we found that the mode of virus production by infected cells (budding vs. bursting has a minimal impact on the early virus dynamics for a wide range of model parameters, as long as the parameters are constrained to provide the observed rate of SIV load increase in the blood of infected animals. Interestingly and in contrast with previous results, we found that the bursting mode of virus production generally results in a higher probability of viral extinction than the budding mode of virus production. Second, this mathematical model was not able to accurately describe the change in experimentally determined probability of host infection with increasing viral doses. Third and finally, the model was also unable to accurately explain the decline in the time to virus detection with increasing viral

  15. Improving medical decisions for incapacitated persons: does focusing on "accurate predictions" lead to an inaccurate picture?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Scott Y H

    2014-04-01

    The Patient Preference Predictor (PPP) proposal places a high priority on the accuracy of predicting patients' preferences and finds the performance of surrogates inadequate. However, the quest to develop a highly accurate, individualized statistical model has significant obstacles. First, it will be impossible to validate the PPP beyond the limit imposed by 60%-80% reliability of people's preferences for future medical decisions--a figure no better than the known average accuracy of surrogates. Second, evidence supports the view that a sizable minority of persons may not even have preferences to predict. Third, many, perhaps most, people express their autonomy just as much by entrusting their loved ones to exercise their judgment than by desiring to specifically control future decisions. Surrogate decision making faces none of these issues and, in fact, it may be more efficient, accurate, and authoritative than is commonly assumed.

  16. The MIDAS touch for Accurately Predicting the Stress-Strain Behavior of Tantalum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jorgensen, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-03-02

    Testing the behavior of metals in extreme environments is not always feasible, so material scientists use models to try and predict the behavior. To achieve accurate results it is necessary to use the appropriate model and material-specific parameters. This research evaluated the performance of six material models available in the MIDAS database [1] to determine at which temperatures and strain-rates they perform best, and to determine to which experimental data their parameters were optimized. Additionally, parameters were optimized for the Johnson-Cook model using experimental data from Lassila et al [2].

  17. A highly accurate predictive-adaptive method for lithium-ion battery remaining discharge energy prediction in electric vehicle applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Guangming; Ouyang, Minggao; Lu, Languang; Li, Jianqiu; Hua, Jianfeng

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • An energy prediction (EP) method is introduced for battery E RDE determination. • EP determines E RDE through coupled prediction of future states, parameters, and output. • The PAEP combines parameter adaptation and prediction to update model parameters. • The PAEP provides improved E RDE accuracy compared with DC and other EP methods. - Abstract: In order to estimate the remaining driving range (RDR) in electric vehicles, the remaining discharge energy (E RDE ) of the applied battery system needs to be precisely predicted. Strongly affected by the load profiles, the available E RDE varies largely in real-world applications and requires specific determination. However, the commonly-used direct calculation (DC) method might result in certain energy prediction errors by relating the E RDE directly to the current state of charge (SOC). To enhance the E RDE accuracy, this paper presents a battery energy prediction (EP) method based on the predictive control theory, in which a coupled prediction of future battery state variation, battery model parameter change, and voltage response, is implemented on the E RDE prediction horizon, and the E RDE is subsequently accumulated and real-timely optimized. Three EP approaches with different model parameter updating routes are introduced, and the predictive-adaptive energy prediction (PAEP) method combining the real-time parameter identification and the future parameter prediction offers the best potential. Based on a large-format lithium-ion battery, the performance of different E RDE calculation methods is compared under various dynamic profiles. Results imply that the EP methods provide much better accuracy than the traditional DC method, and the PAEP could reduce the E RDE error by more than 90% and guarantee the relative energy prediction error under 2%, proving as a proper choice in online E RDE prediction. The correlation of SOC estimation and E RDE calculation is then discussed to illustrate the

  18. Do dual-route models accurately predict reading and spelling performance in individuals with acquired alexia and agraphia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapcsak, Steven Z; Henry, Maya L; Teague, Sommer L; Carnahan, Susan D; Beeson, Pélagie M

    2007-06-18

    Coltheart and co-workers [Castles, A., Bates, T. C., & Coltheart, M. (2006). John Marshall and the developmental dyslexias. Aphasiology, 20, 871-892; Coltheart, M., Rastle, K., Perry, C., Langdon, R., & Ziegler, J. (2001). DRC: A dual route cascaded model of visual word recognition and reading aloud. Psychological Review, 108, 204-256] have demonstrated that an equation derived from dual-route theory accurately predicts reading performance in young normal readers and in children with reading impairment due to developmental dyslexia or stroke. In this paper, we present evidence that the dual-route equation and a related multiple regression model also accurately predict both reading and spelling performance in adult neurological patients with acquired alexia and agraphia. These findings provide empirical support for dual-route theories of written language processing.

  19. Predicting thermal history a-priori for magnetic nanoparticle hyperthermia of internal carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhar, Purbarun; Sirisha Maganti, Lakshmi

    2017-08-01

    This article proposes a simplistic and realistic method where a direct analytical expression can be derived for the temperature field within a tumour during magnetic nanoparticle hyperthermia. The approximated analytical expression for thermal history within the tumour is derived based on the lumped capacitance approach and considers all therapy protocols and parameters. The present method is simplistic and provides an easy framework for estimating hyperthermia protocol parameters promptly. The model has been validated with respect to several experimental reports on animal models such as mice/rabbit/hamster and human clinical trials. It has been observed that the model is able to accurately estimate the thermal history within the carcinoma during the hyperthermia therapy. The present approach may find implications in a-priori estimation of the thermal history in internal tumours for optimizing magnetic hyperthermia treatment protocols with respect to the ablation time, tumour size, magnetic drug concentration, field strength, field frequency, nanoparticle material and size, tumour location, and so on.

  20. ILT based defect simulation of inspection images accurately predicts mask defect printability on wafer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deep, Prakash; Paninjath, Sankaranarayanan; Pereira, Mark; Buck, Peter

    2016-05-01

    At advanced technology nodes mask complexity has been increased because of large-scale use of resolution enhancement technologies (RET) which includes Optical Proximity Correction (OPC), Inverse Lithography Technology (ILT) and Source Mask Optimization (SMO). The number of defects detected during inspection of such mask increased drastically and differentiation of critical and non-critical defects are more challenging, complex and time consuming. Because of significant defectivity of EUVL masks and non-availability of actinic inspection, it is important and also challenging to predict the criticality of defects for printability on wafer. This is one of the significant barriers for the adoption of EUVL for semiconductor manufacturing. Techniques to decide criticality of defects from images captured using non actinic inspection images is desired till actinic inspection is not available. High resolution inspection of photomask images detects many defects which are used for process and mask qualification. Repairing all defects is not practical and probably not required, however it's imperative to know which defects are severe enough to impact wafer before repair. Additionally, wafer printability check is always desired after repairing a defect. AIMSTM review is the industry standard for this, however doing AIMSTM review for all defects is expensive and very time consuming. Fast, accurate and an economical mechanism is desired which can predict defect printability on wafer accurately and quickly from images captured using high resolution inspection machine. Predicting defect printability from such images is challenging due to the fact that the high resolution images do not correlate with actual mask contours. The challenge is increased due to use of different optical condition during inspection other than actual scanner condition, and defects found in such images do not have correlation with actual impact on wafer. Our automated defect simulation tool predicts

  1. Prognostic breast cancer signature identified from 3D culture model accurately predicts clinical outcome across independent datasets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, Katherine J.; Patrick, Denis R.; Bissell, Mina J.; Fournier, Marcia V.

    2008-10-20

    One of the major tenets in breast cancer research is that early detection is vital for patient survival by increasing treatment options. To that end, we have previously used a novel unsupervised approach to identify a set of genes whose expression predicts prognosis of breast cancer patients. The predictive genes were selected in a well-defined three dimensional (3D) cell culture model of non-malignant human mammary epithelial cell morphogenesis as down-regulated during breast epithelial cell acinar formation and cell cycle arrest. Here we examine the ability of this gene signature (3D-signature) to predict prognosis in three independent breast cancer microarray datasets having 295, 286, and 118 samples, respectively. Our results show that the 3D-signature accurately predicts prognosis in three unrelated patient datasets. At 10 years, the probability of positive outcome was 52, 51, and 47 percent in the group with a poor-prognosis signature and 91, 75, and 71 percent in the group with a good-prognosis signature for the three datasets, respectively (Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, p<0.05). Hazard ratios for poor outcome were 5.5 (95% CI 3.0 to 12.2, p<0.0001), 2.4 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.6, p<0.0001) and 1.9 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.2, p = 0.016) and remained significant for the two larger datasets when corrected for estrogen receptor (ER) status. Hence the 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome in both ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, though individual genes differed in their prognostic ability in the two subtypes. Genes that were prognostic in ER+ patients are AURKA, CEP55, RRM2, EPHA2, FGFBP1, and VRK1, while genes prognostic in ER patients include ACTB, FOXM1 and SERPINE2 (Kaplan-Meier p<0.05). Multivariable Cox regression analysis in the largest dataset showed that the 3D-signature was a strong independent factor in predicting breast cancer outcome. The 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome across multiple datasets and holds prognostic

  2. Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

    2017-12-22

    Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life-history, and mating-system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics and the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev =24.3) and formulated predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N ev . The comparison of effective-size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female RS also affected N ev ; hf2=0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting Nev, namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life-history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting

  3. Accurate diffraction data integration by the EVAL15 profile prediction method : Application in chemical and biological crystallography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xian, X.

    2009-01-01

    Accurate integration of reflection intensities plays an essential role in structure determination of the crystallized compound. A new diffraction data integration method, EVAL15, is presented in this thesis. This method uses the principle of general impacts to predict ab inito three-dimensional

  4. Combining structural modeling with ensemble machine learning to accurately predict protein fold stability and binding affinity effects upon mutation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niklas Berliner

    Full Text Available Advances in sequencing have led to a rapid accumulation of mutations, some of which are associated with diseases. However, to draw mechanistic conclusions, a biochemical understanding of these mutations is necessary. For coding mutations, accurate prediction of significant changes in either the stability of proteins or their affinity to their binding partners is required. Traditional methods have used semi-empirical force fields, while newer methods employ machine learning of sequence and structural features. Here, we show how combining both of these approaches leads to a marked boost in accuracy. We introduce ELASPIC, a novel ensemble machine learning approach that is able to predict stability effects upon mutation in both, domain cores and domain-domain interfaces. We combine semi-empirical energy terms, sequence conservation, and a wide variety of molecular details with a Stochastic Gradient Boosting of Decision Trees (SGB-DT algorithm. The accuracy of our predictions surpasses existing methods by a considerable margin, achieving correlation coefficients of 0.77 for stability, and 0.75 for affinity predictions. Notably, we integrated homology modeling to enable proteome-wide prediction and show that accurate prediction on modeled structures is possible. Lastly, ELASPIC showed significant differences between various types of disease-associated mutations, as well as between disease and common neutral mutations. Unlike pure sequence-based prediction methods that try to predict phenotypic effects of mutations, our predictions unravel the molecular details governing the protein instability, and help us better understand the molecular causes of diseases.

  5. Confocal arthroscopy-based patient-specific constitutive models of cartilaginous tissues - II: prediction of reaction force history of meniscal cartilage specimens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Zeike A; Kirk, Thomas B; Miller, Karol

    2007-10-01

    The theoretical framework developed in a companion paper (Part I) is used to derive estimates of mechanical response of two meniscal cartilage specimens. The previously developed framework consisted of a constitutive model capable of incorporating confocal image-derived tissue microstructural data. In the present paper (Part II) fibre and matrix constitutive parameters are first estimated from mechanical testing of a batch of specimens similar to, but independent from those under consideration. Image analysis techniques which allow estimation of tissue microstructural parameters form confocal images are presented. The constitutive model and image-derived structural parameters are then used to predict the reaction force history of the two meniscal specimens subjected to partially confined compression. The predictions are made on the basis of the specimens' individual structural condition as assessed by confocal microscopy and involve no tuning of material parameters. Although the model does not reproduce all features of the experimental curves, as an unfitted estimate of mechanical response the prediction is quite accurate. In light of the obtained results it is judged that more general non-invasive estimation of tissue mechanical properties is possible using the developed framework.

  6. Predicting Risk of Suicide Attempt Using History of Physical Illnesses From Electronic Medical Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Wei; Tran, Truyen; Berk, Michael; Venkatesh, Svetha

    2016-01-01

    Background Although physical illnesses, routinely documented in electronic medical records (EMR), have been found to be a contributing factor to suicides, no automated systems use this information to predict suicide risk. Objective The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of physical illnesses on suicide risk, and develop a predictive model that captures this relationship using EMR data. Methods We used history of physical illnesses (except chapter V: Mental and behavioral disorders) from EMR data over different time-periods to build a lookup table that contains the probability of suicide risk for each chapter of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes. The lookup table was then used to predict the probability of suicide risk for any new assessment. Based on the different lengths of history of physical illnesses, we developed six different models to predict suicide risk. We tested the performance of developed models to predict 90-day risk using historical data over differing time-periods ranging from 3 to 48 months. A total of 16,858 assessments from 7399 mental health patients with at least one risk assessment was used for the validation of the developed model. The performance was measured using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results The best predictive results were derived (AUC=0.71) using combined data across all time-periods, which significantly outperformed the clinical baseline derived from routine risk assessment (AUC=0.56). The proposed approach thus shows potential to be incorporated in the broader risk assessment processes used by clinicians. Conclusions This study provides a novel approach to exploit the history of physical illnesses extracted from EMR (ICD-10 codes without chapter V-mental and behavioral disorders) to predict suicide risk, and this model outperforms existing clinical assessments of suicide risk. PMID:27400764

  7. Quasi-closed phase forward-backward linear prediction analysis of speech for accurate formant detection and estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gowda, Dhananjaya; Airaksinen, Manu; Alku, Paavo

    2017-09-01

    Recently, a quasi-closed phase (QCP) analysis of speech signals for accurate glottal inverse filtering was proposed. However, the QCP analysis which belongs to the family of temporally weighted linear prediction (WLP) methods uses the conventional forward type of sample prediction. This may not be the best choice especially in computing WLP models with a hard-limiting weighting function. A sample selective minimization of the prediction error in WLP reduces the effective number of samples available within a given window frame. To counter this problem, a modified quasi-closed phase forward-backward (QCP-FB) analysis is proposed, wherein each sample is predicted based on its past as well as future samples thereby utilizing the available number of samples more effectively. Formant detection and estimation experiments on synthetic vowels generated using a physical modeling approach as well as natural speech utterances show that the proposed QCP-FB method yields statistically significant improvements over the conventional linear prediction and QCP methods.

  8. An accurate model for numerical prediction of piezoelectric energy harvesting from fluid structure interaction problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amini, Y; Emdad, H; Farid, M

    2014-01-01

    Piezoelectric energy harvesting (PEH) from ambient energy sources, particularly vibrations, has attracted considerable interest throughout the last decade. Since fluid flow has a high energy density, it is one of the best candidates for PEH. Indeed, a piezoelectric energy harvesting process from the fluid flow takes the form of natural three-way coupling of the turbulent fluid flow, the electromechanical effect of the piezoelectric material and the electrical circuit. There are some experimental and numerical studies about piezoelectric energy harvesting from fluid flow in literatures. Nevertheless, accurate modeling for predicting characteristics of this three-way coupling has not yet been developed. In the present study, accurate modeling for this triple coupling is developed and validated by experimental results. A new code based on this modeling in an openFOAM platform is developed. (paper)

  9. Modeling Patient No-Show History and Predicting Future Outpatient Appointment Behavior in the Veterans Health Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goffman, Rachel M; Harris, Shannon L; May, Jerrold H; Milicevic, Aleksandra S; Monte, Robert J; Myaskovsky, Larissa; Rodriguez, Keri L; Tjader, Youxu C; Vargas, Dominic L

    2017-05-01

    Missed appointments reduce the efficiency of the health care system and negatively impact access to care for all patients. Identifying patients at risk for missing an appointment could help health care systems and providers better target interventions to reduce patient no-shows. Our aim was to develop and test a predictive model that identifies patients that have a high probability of missing their outpatient appointments. Demographic information, appointment characteristics, and attendance history were drawn from the existing data sets from four Veterans Affairs health care facilities within six separate service areas. Past attendance behavior was modeled using an empirical Markov model based on up to 10 previous appointments. Using logistic regression, we developed 24 unique predictive models. We implemented the models and tested an intervention strategy using live reminder calls placed 24, 48, and 72 hours ahead of time. The pilot study targeted 1,754 high-risk patients, whose probability of missing an appointment was predicted to be at least 0.2. Our results indicate that three variables were consistently related to a patient's no-show probability in all 24 models: past attendance behavior, the age of the appointment, and having multiple appointments scheduled on that day. After the intervention was implemented, the no-show rate in the pilot group was reduced from the expected value of 35% to 12.16% (p value < 0.0001). The predictive model accurately identified patients who were more likely to miss their appointments. Applying the model in practice enables clinics to apply more intensive intervention measures to high-risk patients. Reprint & Copyright © 2017 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  10. Cosmic growth history and expansion history

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linder, Eric V.

    2005-01-01

    The cosmic expansion history tests the dynamics of the global evolution of the universe and its energy density contents, while the cosmic growth history tests the evolution of the inhomogeneous part of the energy density. Precision comparison of the two histories can distinguish the nature of the physics responsible for the accelerating cosmic expansion: an additional smooth component--dark energy--or a modification of the gravitational field equations. With the aid of a new fitting formula for linear perturbation growth accurate to 0.05%-0.2%, we separate out the growth dependence on the expansion history and introduce a new growth index parameter γ that quantifies the gravitational modification

  11. Highly accurate prediction of food challenge outcome using routinely available clinical data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DunnGalvin, Audrey; Daly, Deirdre; Cullinane, Claire; Stenke, Emily; Keeton, Diane; Erlewyn-Lajeunesse, Mich; Roberts, Graham C; Lucas, Jane; Hourihane, Jonathan O'B

    2011-03-01

    Serum specific IgE or skin prick tests are less useful at levels below accepted decision points. We sought to develop and validate a model to predict food challenge outcome by using routinely collected data in a diverse sample of children considered suitable for food challenge. The proto-algorithm was generated by using a limited data set from 1 service (phase 1). We retrospectively applied, evaluated, and modified the initial model by using an extended data set in another center (phase 2). Finally, we prospectively validated the model in a blind study in a further group of children undergoing food challenge for peanut, milk, or egg in the second center (phase 3). Allergen-specific models were developed for peanut, egg, and milk. Phase 1 (N = 429) identified 5 clinical factors associated with diagnosis of food allergy by food challenge. In phase 2 (N = 289), we examined the predictive ability of 6 clinical factors: skin prick test, serum specific IgE, total IgE minus serum specific IgE, symptoms, sex, and age. In phase 3 (N = 70), 97% of cases were accurately predicted as positive and 94% as negative. Our model showed an advantage in clinical prediction compared with serum specific IgE only, skin prick test only, and serum specific IgE and skin prick test (92% accuracy vs 57%, and 81%, respectively). Our findings have implications for the improved delivery of food allergy-related health care, enhanced food allergy-related quality of life, and economized use of health service resources by decreasing the number of food challenges performed. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Prediction of outcome in patients with low back pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kongsted, Alice; Andersen, Cathrine Hedegaard; Mørk Hansen, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The clinical course of low back pain (LBP) cannot be accurately predicted by existing prediction tools. Therefore clinicians rely largely on their experience and clinical judgement. The objectives of this study were to investigate 1) which patient characteristics were associated with chiropractors...... intensity (0-10) and disability (RMDQ) after 2-weeks, 3-months, and 12-months. The course of LBP in 859 patients was predicted to be short (54%), prolonged (36%), or chronic (7%). Clinicians' expectations were most strongly associated with education, LBP history, radiating pain, and neurological signs......' expectations of outcome from a LBP episode, 2) if clinicians' expectations related to outcome, 3) how accurate clinical predictions were as compared to those of the STarT Back Screening Tool (SBT), and 4) if accuracy was improved by combining clinicians' expectations and the SBT. Outcomes were measured as LBP...

  13. An Interpretable Machine Learning Model for Accurate Prediction of Sepsis in the ICU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemati, Shamim; Holder, Andre; Razmi, Fereshteh; Stanley, Matthew D; Clifford, Gari D; Buchman, Timothy G

    2018-04-01

    Sepsis is among the leading causes of morbidity, mortality, and cost overruns in critically ill patients. Early intervention with antibiotics improves survival in septic patients. However, no clinically validated system exists for real-time prediction of sepsis onset. We aimed to develop and validate an Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert algorithm for early prediction of sepsis. Observational cohort study. Academic medical center from January 2013 to December 2015. Over 31,000 admissions to the ICUs at two Emory University hospitals (development cohort), in addition to over 52,000 ICU patients from the publicly available Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III ICU database (validation cohort). Patients who met the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis (Sepsis-3) prior to or within 4 hours of their ICU admission were excluded, resulting in roughly 27,000 and 42,000 patients within our development and validation cohorts, respectively. None. High-resolution vital signs time series and electronic medical record data were extracted. A set of 65 features (variables) were calculated on hourly basis and passed to the Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert algorithm to predict onset of sepsis in the proceeding T hours (where T = 12, 8, 6, or 4). Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert was used to predict onset of sepsis in the proceeding T hours and to produce a list of the most significant contributing factors. For the 12-, 8-, 6-, and 4-hour ahead prediction of sepsis, Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic in the range of 0.83-0.85. Performance of the Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert on the development and validation cohorts was indistinguishable. Using data available in the ICU in real-time, Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert can accurately predict the onset of sepsis in an ICU patient 4-12 hours prior to clinical recognition. A prospective study is necessary to determine the

  14. Development and Validation of a Multidisciplinary Tool for Accurate and Efficient Rotorcraft Noise Prediction (MUTE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yi; Anusonti-Inthra, Phuriwat; Diskin, Boris

    2011-01-01

    A physics-based, systematically coupled, multidisciplinary prediction tool (MUTE) for rotorcraft noise was developed and validated with a wide range of flight configurations and conditions. MUTE is an aggregation of multidisciplinary computational tools that accurately and efficiently model the physics of the source of rotorcraft noise, and predict the noise at far-field observer locations. It uses systematic coupling approaches among multiple disciplines including Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Structural Dynamics (CSD), and high fidelity acoustics. Within MUTE, advanced high-order CFD tools are used around the rotor blade to predict the transonic flow (shock wave) effects, which generate the high-speed impulsive noise. Predictions of the blade-vortex interaction noise in low speed flight are also improved by using the Particle Vortex Transport Method (PVTM), which preserves the wake flow details required for blade/wake and fuselage/wake interactions. The accuracy of the source noise prediction is further improved by utilizing a coupling approach between CFD and CSD, so that the effects of key structural dynamics, elastic blade deformations, and trim solutions are correctly represented in the analysis. The blade loading information and/or the flow field parameters around the rotor blade predicted by the CFD/CSD coupling approach are used to predict the acoustic signatures at far-field observer locations with a high-fidelity noise propagation code (WOPWOP3). The predicted results from the MUTE tool for rotor blade aerodynamic loading and far-field acoustic signatures are compared and validated with a variation of experimental data sets, such as UH60-A data, DNW test data and HART II test data.

  15. Lay perceptions of predictive testing for diabetes based on DNA test results versus family history assessment: a focus group study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijdenes-Pijl, Miranda; Dondorp, Wybo J; Timmermans, Danielle Rm; Cornel, Martina C; Henneman, Lidewij

    2011-07-05

    This study assessed lay perceptions of issues related to predictive genetic testing for multifactorial diseases. These perceived issues may differ from the "classic" issues, e.g. autonomy, discrimination, and psychological harm that are considered important in predictive testing for monogenic disorders. In this study, type 2 diabetes was used as an example, and perceptions with regard to predictive testing based on DNA test results and family history assessment were compared. Eight focus group interviews were held with 45 individuals aged 35-70 years with (n = 3) and without (n = 1) a family history of diabetes, mixed groups of these two (n = 2), and diabetes patients (n = 2). All interviews were transcribed and analysed using Atlas-ti. Most participants believed in the ability of a predictive test to identify people at risk for diabetes and to motivate preventive behaviour. Different reasons underlying motivation were considered when comparing DNA test results and a family history risk assessment. A perceived drawback of DNA testing was that diabetes was considered not severe enough for this type of risk assessment. In addition, diabetes family history assessment was not considered useful by some participants, since there are also other risk factors involved, not everyone has a diabetes family history or knows their family history, and it might have a negative influence on family relations. Respect for autonomy of individuals was emphasized more with regard to DNA testing than family history assessment. Other issues such as psychological harm, discrimination, and privacy were only briefly mentioned for both tests. The results suggest that most participants believe a predictive genetic test could be used in the prevention of multifactorial disorders, such as diabetes, but indicate points to consider before both these tests are applied. These considerations differ with regard to the method of assessment (DNA test or obtaining family history) and also differ from

  16. Predictive Models of Li-ion Battery Lifetime (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G.; Shi, Y.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-09-01

    Predictive models of Li-ion battery reliability must consider a multiplicity of electrochemical, thermal and mechanical degradation modes experienced by batteries in application environments. Complicating matters, Li-ion batteries can experience several path dependent degradation trajectories dependent on storage and cycling history of the application environment. Rates of degradation are controlled by factors such as temperature history, electrochemical operating window, and charge/discharge rate. Lacking accurate models and tests, lifetime uncertainty must be absorbed by overdesign and warranty costs. Degradation models are needed that predict lifetime more accurately and with less test data. Models should also provide engineering feedback for next generation battery designs. This presentation reviews both multi-dimensional physical models and simpler, lumped surrogate models of battery electrochemical and mechanical degradation. Models are compared with cell- and pack-level aging data from commercial Li-ion chemistries. The analysis elucidates the relative importance of electrochemical and mechanical stress-induced degradation mechanisms in real-world operating environments. Opportunities for extending the lifetime of commercial battery systems are explored.

  17. Accurate First-Principles Spectra Predictions for Planetological and Astrophysical Applications at Various T-Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, M.; Nikitin, A. V.; Tyuterev, V.

    2014-06-01

    Knowledge of near infrared intensities of rovibrational transitions of polyatomic molecules is essential for the modeling of various planetary atmospheres, brown dwarfs and for other astrophysical applications 1,2,3. For example, to analyze exoplanets, atmospheric models have been developed, thus making the need to provide accurate spectroscopic data. Consequently, the spectral characterization of such planetary objects relies on the necessity of having adequate and reliable molecular data in extreme conditions (temperature, optical path length, pressure). On the other hand, in the modeling of astrophysical opacities, millions of lines are generally involved and the line-by-line extraction is clearly not feasible in laboratory measurements. It is thus suggested that this large amount of data could be interpreted only by reliable theoretical predictions. There exists essentially two theoretical approaches for the computation and prediction of spectra. The first one is based on empirically-fitted effective spectroscopic models. Another way for computing energies, line positions and intensities is based on global variational calculations using ab initio surfaces. They do not yet reach the spectroscopic accuracy stricto sensu but implicitly account for all intramolecular interactions including resonance couplings in a wide spectral range. The final aim of this work is to provide reliable predictions which could be quantitatively accurate with respect to the precision of available observations and as complete as possible. All this thus requires extensive first-principles quantum mechanical calculations essentially based on three necessary ingredients which are (i) accurate intramolecular potential energy surface and dipole moment surface components well-defined in a large range of vibrational displacements and (ii) efficient computational methods combined with suitable choices of coordinates to account for molecular symmetry properties and to achieve a good numerical

  18. Modeling effects of environmental change on wolf population dynamics, trait evolution, and life history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulson, Tim; MacNulty, Daniel R; Stahler, Daniel R; vonHoldt, Bridgett; Wayne, Robert K; Smith, Douglas W

    2011-12-02

    Environmental change has been observed to generate simultaneous responses in population dynamics, life history, gene frequencies, and morphology in a number of species. But how common are such eco-evolutionary responses to environmental change likely to be? Are they inevitable, or do they require a specific type of change? Can we accurately predict eco-evolutionary responses? We address these questions using theory and data from the study of Yellowstone wolves. We show that environmental change is expected to generate eco-evolutionary change, that changes in the average environment will affect wolves to a greater extent than changes in how variable it is, and that accurate prediction of the consequences of environmental change will probably prove elusive.

  19. Prediction of the time-dependent failure rate for normally operating components taking into account the operational history

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vrbanic, I.; Simic, Z.; Sljivac, D.

    2008-01-01

    The prediction of the time-dependent failure rate has been studied, taking into account the operational history of a component used in applications such as system modeling in a probabilistic safety analysis in order to evaluate the impact of equipment aging and maintenance strategies on the risk measures considered. We have selected a time-dependent model for the failure rate which is based on the Weibull distribution and the principles of proportional age reduction by equipment overhauls. Estimation of the parameters that determine the failure rate is considered, including the definition of the operational history model and likelihood function for the Bayesian analysis of parameters for normally operating repairable components. The operational history is provided as a time axis with defined times of overhauls and failures. An example for demonstration is described with prediction of the future behavior for seven different operational histories. (orig.)

  20. Prediction of hemoglobin levels in whole blood donors: how to model donation history

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baart, A.M.; Vergouwe, Y.; Atsma, F.; Moons, K.G.; Kort, W.L. de

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Recently, prediction models for hemoglobin (Hb) deferral risk have been developed. These models consider the previous Hb level plus change in Hb. Here, we investigated if the performance of models could be improved by considering more information on Hb level history. STUDY DESIGN AND

  1. Can Social History Variables Predict Prison Inmates’ Risk for Latent Tuberculosis Infection?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyler E. Weant

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Improved screening and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI in correctional facilities may improve TB control. The Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction (ODRC consists of 32 prisons. Inmates are screened upon entry to ODRC and yearly thereafter. The objective of the study was to determine if social history factors such as tobacco, alcohol, and drug use are significant predictors of LTBI and treatment outcomes. We reviewed the medical charts of inmates and randomly selected age-matched controls at one ODRC facility for 2009. We used a conditional logistic regression to assess associations between selected social history variables and LTBI diagnosis. Eighty-nine inmates with a history of LTBI and 88 controls were identified. No social history variable was a significant predictor of LTBI. Medical comorbidities such as asthma, rheumatoid arthritis, and hepatitis C were significantly higher in inmates with LTBI. 84% of inmates diagnosed with LTBI had either completed or were on treatment. Annual TB screening may not be cost-effective in all inmate populations. Identification of factors to help target screening populations at risk for TB is critical. Social history variables did not predict LTBI in our inmate population. Additional studies are needed to identify inmates for the targeted TB testing.

  2. A New Approach for Accurate Prediction of Liquid Loading of Directional Gas Wells in Transition Flow or Turbulent Flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruiqing Ming

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Current common models for calculating continuous liquid-carrying critical gas velocity are established based on vertical wells and laminar flow without considering the influence of deviation angle and Reynolds number on liquid-carrying. With the increase of the directional well in transition flow or turbulent flow, the current common models cannot accurately predict the critical gas velocity of these wells. So we built a new model to predict continuous liquid-carrying critical gas velocity for directional well in transition flow or turbulent flow. It is shown from sensitivity analysis that the correction coefficient is mainly influenced by Reynolds number and deviation angle. With the increase of Reynolds number, the critical liquid-carrying gas velocity increases first and then decreases. And with the increase of deviation angle, the critical liquid-carrying gas velocity gradually decreases. It is indicated from the case calculation analysis that the calculation error of this new model is less than 10%, where accuracy is much higher than those of current common models. It is demonstrated that the continuous liquid-carrying critical gas velocity of directional well in transition flow or turbulent flow can be predicted accurately by using this new model.

  3. Range-Space Predictive Control for Optimal Robot Motion

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Belda, Květoslav; Böhm, Josef

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 1 (2008), s. 1-7 ISSN 1998-0140 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP102/06/P275 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Accurate manipulation * Industrial robotics * Predictive control * Range-space control Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/historie/belda-0305644.pdf

  4. Accurate and dynamic predictive model for better prediction in medicine and healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alanazi, H O; Abdullah, A H; Qureshi, K N; Ismail, A S

    2018-05-01

    Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have changed the trend into new integrated operations and methods in all fields of life. The health sector has also adopted new technologies to improve the systems and provide better services to customers. Predictive models in health care are also influenced from new technologies to predict the different disease outcomes. However, still, existing predictive models have suffered from some limitations in terms of predictive outcomes performance. In order to improve predictive model performance, this paper proposed a predictive model by classifying the disease predictions into different categories. To achieve this model performance, this paper uses traumatic brain injury (TBI) datasets. TBI is one of the serious diseases worldwide and needs more attention due to its seriousness and serious impacts on human life. The proposed predictive model improves the predictive performance of TBI. The TBI data set is developed and approved by neurologists to set its features. The experiment results show that the proposed model has achieved significant results including accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

  5. Understanding invasion history and predicting invasive niches using genetic sequencing technology in Australia: case studies from Cucurbitaceae and Boraginaceae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaik, Razia S; Zhu, Xiaocheng; Clements, David R; Weston, Leslie A

    2016-01-01

    Part of the challenge in dealing with invasive plant species is that they seldom represent a uniform, static entity. Often, an accurate understanding of the history of plant introduction and knowledge of the real levels of genetic diversity present in species and populations of importance is lacking. Currently, the role of genetic diversity in promoting the successful establishment of invasive plants is not well defined. Genetic profiling of invasive plants should enhance our understanding of the dynamics of colonization in the invaded range. Recent advances in DNA sequencing technology have greatly facilitated the rapid and complete assessment of plant population genetics. Here, we apply our current understanding of the genetics and ecophysiology of plant invasions to recent work on Australian plant invaders from the Cucurbitaceae and Boraginaceae. The Cucurbitaceae study showed that both prickly paddy melon ( Cucumis myriocarpus ) and camel melon ( Citrullus lanatus ) were represented by only a single genotype in Australia, implying that each was probably introduced as a single introduction event. In contrast, a third invasive melon, Citrullus colocynthis , possessed a moderate level of genetic diversity in Australia and was potentially introduced to the continent at least twice. The Boraginaceae study demonstrated the value of comparing two similar congeneric species; one, Echium plantagineum , is highly invasive and genetically diverse, whereas the other, Echium vulgare , exhibits less genetic diversity and occupies a more limited ecological niche. Sequence analysis provided precise identification of invasive plant species, as well as information on genetic diversity and phylogeographic history. Improved sequencing technologies will continue to allow greater resolution of genetic relationships among invasive plant populations, thereby potentially improving our ability to predict the impact of these relationships upon future spread and better manage invaders

  6. Accurate prediction of severe allergic reactions by a small set of environmental parameters (NDVI, temperature).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notas, George; Bariotakis, Michail; Kalogrias, Vaios; Andrianaki, Maria; Azariadis, Kalliopi; Kampouri, Errika; Theodoropoulou, Katerina; Lavrentaki, Katerina; Kastrinakis, Stelios; Kampa, Marilena; Agouridakis, Panagiotis; Pirintsos, Stergios; Castanas, Elias

    2015-01-01

    Severe allergic reactions of unknown etiology,necessitating a hospital visit, have an important impact in the life of affected individuals and impose a major economic burden to societies. The prediction of clinically severe allergic reactions would be of great importance, but current attempts have been limited by the lack of a well-founded applicable methodology and the wide spatiotemporal distribution of allergic reactions. The valid prediction of severe allergies (and especially those needing hospital treatment) in a region, could alert health authorities and implicated individuals to take appropriate preemptive measures. In the present report we have collecterd visits for serious allergic reactions of unknown etiology from two major hospitals in the island of Crete, for two distinct time periods (validation and test sets). We have used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a satellite-based, freely available measurement, which is an indicator of live green vegetation at a given geographic area, and a set of meteorological data to develop a model capable of describing and predicting severe allergic reaction frequency. Our analysis has retained NDVI and temperature as accurate identifiers and predictors of increased hospital severe allergic reactions visits. Our approach may contribute towards the development of satellite-based modules, for the prediction of severe allergic reactions in specific, well-defined geographical areas. It could also probably be used for the prediction of other environment related diseases and conditions.

  7. A Machine Learned Classifier That Uses Gene Expression Data to Accurately Predict Estrogen Receptor Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastani, Meysam; Vos, Larissa; Asgarian, Nasimeh; Deschenes, Jean; Graham, Kathryn; Mackey, John; Greiner, Russell

    2013-01-01

    Background Selecting the appropriate treatment for breast cancer requires accurately determining the estrogen receptor (ER) status of the tumor. However, the standard for determining this status, immunohistochemical analysis of formalin-fixed paraffin embedded samples, suffers from numerous technical and reproducibility issues. Assessment of ER-status based on RNA expression can provide more objective, quantitative and reproducible test results. Methods To learn a parsimonious RNA-based classifier of hormone receptor status, we applied a machine learning tool to a training dataset of gene expression microarray data obtained from 176 frozen breast tumors, whose ER-status was determined by applying ASCO-CAP guidelines to standardized immunohistochemical testing of formalin fixed tumor. Results This produced a three-gene classifier that can predict the ER-status of a novel tumor, with a cross-validation accuracy of 93.17±2.44%. When applied to an independent validation set and to four other public databases, some on different platforms, this classifier obtained over 90% accuracy in each. In addition, we found that this prediction rule separated the patients' recurrence-free survival curves with a hazard ratio lower than the one based on the IHC analysis of ER-status. Conclusions Our efficient and parsimonious classifier lends itself to high throughput, highly accurate and low-cost RNA-based assessments of ER-status, suitable for routine high-throughput clinical use. This analytic method provides a proof-of-principle that may be applicable to developing effective RNA-based tests for other biomarkers and conditions. PMID:24312637

  8. Accurate bearing remaining useful life prediction based on Weibull distribution and artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Ali, Jaouher; Chebel-Morello, Brigitte; Saidi, Lotfi; Malinowski, Simon; Fnaiech, Farhat

    2015-05-01

    Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of critical assets is an important challenge in condition based maintenance to improve reliability and decrease machine's breakdown and maintenance's cost. Bearing is one of the most important components in industries which need to be monitored and the user should predict its RUL. The challenge of this study is to propose an original feature able to evaluate the health state of bearings and to estimate their RUL by Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) techniques. In this paper, the proposed method is based on the data-driven prognostic approach. The combination of Simplified Fuzzy Adaptive Resonance Theory Map (SFAM) neural network and Weibull distribution (WD) is explored. WD is used just in the training phase to fit measurement and to avoid areas of fluctuation in the time domain. SFAM training process is based on fitted measurements at present and previous inspection time points as input. However, the SFAM testing process is based on real measurements at present and previous inspections. Thanks to the fuzzy learning process, SFAM has an important ability and a good performance to learn nonlinear time series. As output, seven classes are defined; healthy bearing and six states for bearing degradation. In order to find the optimal RUL prediction, a smoothing phase is proposed in this paper. Experimental results show that the proposed method can reliably predict the RUL of rolling element bearings (REBs) based on vibration signals. The proposed prediction approach can be applied to prognostic other various mechanical assets.

  9. Stress sensitivity interacts with depression history to predict depressive symptoms among youth: prospective changes following first depression onset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Technow, Jessica R; Hazel, Nicholas A; Abela, John R Z; Hankin, Benjamin L

    2015-04-01

    Predictors of depressive symptoms may differ before and after the first onset of major depression due to stress sensitization. Dependent stressors, or those to which characteristics of individuals contribute, have been shown to predict depressive symptoms in youth. The current study sought to clarify how stressors' roles may differ before and after the first depressive episode. Adolescents (N = 382, aged 11 to 15 at baseline) were assessed at baseline and every 3 months over the course of 2 years with measures of stressors and depressive symptoms. Semi-structured interviews were conducted every 6 months to assess for clinically significant depressive episodes. Hierarchical linear modeling showed a significant interaction between history of depression and idiographic fluctuations in dependent stressors to predict prospective elevations of symptoms, such that dependent stressors were more predictive of depressive symptoms after onset of disorder. Independent stressors predicted symptoms, but the strength of the association did not vary by depression history. These results suggest a synthesis of dependent stress and stress sensitization processes that might maintain inter-episode depressive symptoms among youth with a history of clinical depression.

  10. Stress sensitivity interacts with depression history to predict depressive symptoms among youth: Prospective changes following first depression onset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Technow, Jessica R.; Hazel, Nicholas A.; Abela, John R. Z.; Hankin, Benjamin L.

    2015-01-01

    Predictors of depressive symptoms may differ before and after the first onset of major depression due to stress sensitization. Dependent stressors, or those to which characteristics of individuals contribute, have been shown to predict depressive symptoms in youth. The current study sought to clarify how stressors’ roles may differ before and after the first depressive episode. Adolescents (N = 382, aged 11 to 15 at baseline) were assessed at baseline and every three months over the course of two years with measures of stressors and depressive symptoms. Semi-structured interviews were conducted every 6 months to assess for clinically significant depressive episodes. Hierarchical linear modeling showed a significant interaction between history of depression and idiographic fluctuations in dependent stressors to predict prospective elevations of symptoms, such that dependent stressors were more predictive of depressive symptoms after onset of disorder. Independent stressors predicted symptoms, but the strength of the association did not vary by depression history. These results suggest a synthesis of stress sensitization and generation processes that might maintain inter-episode depressive symptoms among youth with a history of clinical depression. PMID:25123081

  11. Microvascular remodelling in preeclampsia: quantifying capillary rarefaction accurately and independently predicts preeclampsia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonios, Tarek F T; Nama, Vivek; Wang, Duolao; Manyonda, Isaac T

    2013-09-01

    Preeclampsia is a major cause of maternal and neonatal mortality and morbidity. The incidence of preeclampsia seems to be rising because of increased prevalence of predisposing disorders, such as essential hypertension, diabetes, and obesity, and there is increasing evidence to suggest widespread microcirculatory abnormalities before the onset of preeclampsia. We hypothesized that quantifying capillary rarefaction could be helpful in the clinical prediction of preeclampsia. We measured skin capillary density according to a well-validated protocol at 5 consecutive predetermined visits in 322 consecutive white women, of whom 16 subjects developed preeclampsia. We found that structural capillary rarefaction at 20-24 weeks of gestation yielded a sensitivity of 0.87 with a specificity of 0.50 at the cutoff of 2 capillaries/field with the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic value of 0.70, whereas capillary rarefaction at 27-32 weeks of gestation yielded a sensitivity of 0.75 and a higher specificity of 0.77 at the cutoff of 8 capillaries/field with area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic value of 0.82. Combining capillary rarefaction with uterine artery Doppler pulsatility index increased the sensitivity and specificity of the prediction. Multivariable analysis shows that the odds of preeclampsia are increased in women with previous history of preeclampsia or chronic hypertension and in those with increased uterine artery Doppler pulsatility index, but the most powerful and independent predictor of preeclampsia was capillary rarefaction at 27-32 weeks. Quantifying structural rarefaction of skin capillaries in pregnancy is a potentially useful clinical marker for the prediction of preeclampsia.

  12. Prostate cancer risk prediction based on complete prostate cancer family history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albright, Frederick; Stephenson, Robert A; Agarwal, Neeraj; Teerlink, Craig C; Lowrance, William T; Farnham, James M; Albright, Lisa A Cannon

    2015-03-01

    Prostate cancer (PC) relative risks (RRs) are typically estimated based on status of close relatives or presence of any affected relatives. This study provides RR estimates using extensive and specific PC family history. A retrospective population-based study was undertaken to estimate RRs for PC based on complete family history of PC. A total of 635,443 males, all with ancestral genealogy data, were analyzed. RRs for PC were determined based upon PC rates estimated from males with no PC family history (without PC in first, second, or third degree relatives). RRs were determined for a variety of constellations, for example, number of first through third degree relatives; named (grandfather, father, uncle, cousins, brothers); maternal, paternal relationships, and age of onset. In the 635,443 males analyzed, 18,105 had PC. First-degree RRs ranged from 2.46 (=1 first-degree relative affected, CI = 2.39-2.53) to 7.65 (=4 first-degree relatives affected, CI = 6.28-9.23). Second-degree RRs for probands with 0 affected first-degree relatives ranged from 1.51 (≥1 second-degree relative affected, CI = 1.47-1.56) to 3.09 (≥5 second-degree relatives affected, CI = 2.32-4.03). Third-degree RRs with 0 affected first- and 0 affected second-degree relatives ranged from 1.15 (≥1 affected third-degree relative, CI = 1.12-1.19) to 1.50 (≥5 affected third-degree relatives, CI = 1.35-1.66). RRs based on age at diagnosis were higher for earlier age at diagnoses; for example, RR = 5.54 for ≥1 first-degree relative diagnosed before age 50 years (CI = 1.12-1.19) and RR = 1.78 for >1 second-degree relative diagnosed before age 50 years, CI = 1.33, 2.33. RRs for equivalent maternal versus paternal family history were not significantly different. A more complete PC family history using close and distant relatives and age at diagnosis results in a wider range of estimates of individual RR that are potentially more accurate than RRs estimated

  13. Measuring solar reflectance - Part I: Defining a metric that accurately predicts solar heat gain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levinson, Ronnen; Akbari, Hashem; Berdahl, Paul [Heat Island Group, Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

    2010-09-15

    Solar reflectance can vary with the spectral and angular distributions of incident sunlight, which in turn depend on surface orientation, solar position and atmospheric conditions. A widely used solar reflectance metric based on the ASTM Standard E891 beam-normal solar spectral irradiance underestimates the solar heat gain of a spectrally selective ''cool colored'' surface because this irradiance contains a greater fraction of near-infrared light than typically found in ordinary (unconcentrated) global sunlight. At mainland US latitudes, this metric R{sub E891BN} can underestimate the annual peak solar heat gain of a typical roof or pavement (slope {<=} 5:12 [23 ]) by as much as 89 W m{sup -2}, and underestimate its peak surface temperature by up to 5 K. Using R{sub E891BN} to characterize roofs in a building energy simulation can exaggerate the economic value N of annual cool roof net energy savings by as much as 23%. We define clear sky air mass one global horizontal (''AM1GH'') solar reflectance R{sub g,0}, a simple and easily measured property that more accurately predicts solar heat gain. R{sub g,0} predicts the annual peak solar heat gain of a roof or pavement to within 2 W m{sup -2}, and overestimates N by no more than 3%. R{sub g,0} is well suited to rating the solar reflectances of roofs, pavements and walls. We show in Part II that R{sub g,0} can be easily and accurately measured with a pyranometer, a solar spectrophotometer or version 6 of the Solar Spectrum Reflectometer. (author)

  14. Measuring solar reflectance Part I: Defining a metric that accurately predicts solar heat gain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levinson, Ronnen; Akbari, Hashem; Berdahl, Paul

    2010-05-14

    Solar reflectance can vary with the spectral and angular distributions of incident sunlight, which in turn depend on surface orientation, solar position and atmospheric conditions. A widely used solar reflectance metric based on the ASTM Standard E891 beam-normal solar spectral irradiance underestimates the solar heat gain of a spectrally selective 'cool colored' surface because this irradiance contains a greater fraction of near-infrared light than typically found in ordinary (unconcentrated) global sunlight. At mainland U.S. latitudes, this metric RE891BN can underestimate the annual peak solar heat gain of a typical roof or pavement (slope {le} 5:12 [23{sup o}]) by as much as 89 W m{sup -2}, and underestimate its peak surface temperature by up to 5 K. Using R{sub E891BN} to characterize roofs in a building energy simulation can exaggerate the economic value N of annual cool-roof net energy savings by as much as 23%. We define clear-sky air mass one global horizontal ('AM1GH') solar reflectance R{sub g,0}, a simple and easily measured property that more accurately predicts solar heat gain. R{sub g,0} predicts the annual peak solar heat gain of a roof or pavement to within 2 W m{sup -2}, and overestimates N by no more than 3%. R{sub g,0} is well suited to rating the solar reflectances of roofs, pavements and walls. We show in Part II that R{sub g,0} can be easily and accurately measured with a pyranometer, a solar spectrophotometer or version 6 of the Solar Spectrum Reflectometer.

  15. Socioeconomic Status and Race Outperform Concussion History and Sport Participation in Predicting Collegiate Athlete Baseline Neurocognitive Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houck, Zac; Asken, Breton; Clugston, James; Perlstein, William; Bauer, Russell

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the contribution of socioeconomic status (SES) and other multivariate predictors to baseline neurocognitive functioning in collegiate athletes. Data were obtained from the Concussion Assessment, Research and Education (CARE) Consortium. Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT) baseline assessments for 403 University of Florida student-athletes (202 males; age range: 18-23) from the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 seasons were analyzed. ImPACT composite scores were consolidated into one memory and one speed composite score. Hierarchical linear regressions were used for analyses. In the overall sample, history of learning disability (β=-0.164; p=.001) and attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder (β=-0.102; p=.038) significantly predicted worse memory and speed performance, respectively. Older age predicted better speed performance (β=.176; pAmerican race predicted worse memory (β=-0.113; p=.026) and speed performance (β=-.242; pfootball players, higher maternal SES predicted better memory performance (β=0.308; p=.007); older age predicted better speed performance (β=0.346; p=.001); while Black/African American race predicted worse speed performance (β=-0.397; phistory of neurodevelopmental disorder, age, and race. In football players, specifically, maternal SES independently predicted baseline memory scores, but concussion history and years exposed to sport were not predictive. SES, race, and medical history beyond exposure to brain injury or subclinical brain trauma are important factors when interpreting variability in cognitive scores among collegiate athletes. Additionally, sport-specific differences in the proportional representation of various demographic variables (e.g., SES and race) may also be an important consideration within the broader biopsychosocial attributional model. (JINS, 2018, 24, 1-10).

  16. Size matters. The width and location of a ureteral stone accurately predict the chance of spontaneous passage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jendeberg, Johan; Geijer, Haakan; Alshamari, Muhammed; Liden, Mats [Oerebro University Hospital, Department of Radiology, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Oerebro (Sweden); Cierzniak, Bartosz [Oerebro University, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Oerebro (Sweden)

    2017-11-15

    To determine how to most accurately predict the chance of spontaneous passage of a ureteral stone using information in the diagnostic non-enhanced computed tomography (NECT) and to create predictive models with smaller stone size intervals than previously possible. Retrospectively 392 consecutive patients with ureteric stone on NECT were included. Three radiologists independently measured the stone size. Stone location, side, hydronephrosis, CRP, medical expulsion therapy (MET) and all follow-up radiology until stone expulsion or 26 weeks were recorded. Logistic regressions were performed with spontaneous stone passage in 4 weeks and 20 weeks as the dependent variable. The spontaneous passage rate in 20 weeks was 312 out of 392 stones, 98% in 0-2 mm, 98% in 3 mm, 81% in 4 mm, 65% in 5 mm, 33% in 6 mm and 9% in ≥6.5 mm wide stones. The stone size and location predicted spontaneous ureteric stone passage. The side and the grade of hydronephrosis only predicted stone passage in specific subgroups. Spontaneous passage of a ureteral stone can be predicted with high accuracy with the information available in the NECT. We present a prediction method based on stone size and location. (orig.)

  17. The role of stand history in assessing forest impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, V.H.; Doyle, T.W.

    1987-01-01

    Air pollution, harvesting practices, and natural disturbances can affect the growth of trees and forest development. To make predictions about anthropogenic impacts on forests, we need to understand how these factors affect tree growth. In this study the effect of disturbance history on tree growth and stand structure was examined by using a computer model of forest development. The model was run under the climatic conditions of east Tennessee, USA, and the results compared to stand structure and tree growth data from a yellow poplar-white oak forest. Basal area growth and forest biomass were more accurately projected when rough approximations of the thinning and fire history typical of the measured plots were included in the simulation model. Stand history can influence tree growth rates and forest structure and should be included in any attempt to assess forest impacts.

  18. Lay perceptions of predictive testing for diabetes based on DNA test results versus family history assessment: a focus group study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornel Martina C

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study assessed lay perceptions of issues related to predictive genetic testing for multifactorial diseases. These perceived issues may differ from the "classic" issues, e.g. autonomy, discrimination, and psychological harm that are considered important in predictive testing for monogenic disorders. In this study, type 2 diabetes was used as an example, and perceptions with regard to predictive testing based on DNA test results and family history assessment were compared. Methods Eight focus group interviews were held with 45 individuals aged 35-70 years with (n = 3 and without (n = 1 a family history of diabetes, mixed groups of these two (n = 2, and diabetes patients (n = 2. All interviews were transcribed and analysed using Atlas-ti. Results Most participants believed in the ability of a predictive test to identify people at risk for diabetes and to motivate preventive behaviour. Different reasons underlying motivation were considered when comparing DNA test results and a family history risk assessment. A perceived drawback of DNA testing was that diabetes was considered not severe enough for this type of risk assessment. In addition, diabetes family history assessment was not considered useful by some participants, since there are also other risk factors involved, not everyone has a diabetes family history or knows their family history, and it might have a negative influence on family relations. Respect for autonomy of individuals was emphasized more with regard to DNA testing than family history assessment. Other issues such as psychological harm, discrimination, and privacy were only briefly mentioned for both tests. Conclusion The results suggest that most participants believe a predictive genetic test could be used in the prevention of multifactorial disorders, such as diabetes, but indicate points to consider before both these tests are applied. These considerations differ with regard to the method of assessment

  19. Evolutionary rate variation and RNA secondary structure prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, B.; Andersen, E.S.; Damgaard, C.

    2004-01-01

    Predicting RNA secondary structure using evolutionary history can be carried out by using an alignment of related RNA sequences with conserved structure. Accurately determining evolutionary substitution rates for base pairs and single stranded nucleotides is a concern for methods based on this type...... by applying rates derived from tRNA and rRNA to the prediction of the much more rapidly evolving 5'-region of HIV-1. We find that the HIV-1 prediction is in agreement with experimental data, even though the relative evolutionary rate between A and G is significantly increased, both in stem and loop regions...

  20. An Extrapolation of a Radical Equation More Accurately Predicts Shelf Life of Frozen Biological Matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vore, Karl W; Fatahi, Nadia M; Sass, John E

    2016-08-01

    Arrhenius modeling of analyte recovery at increased temperatures to predict long-term colder storage stability of biological raw materials, reagents, calibrators, and controls is standard practice in the diagnostics industry. Predicting subzero temperature stability using the same practice is frequently criticized but nevertheless heavily relied upon. We compared the ability to predict analyte recovery during frozen storage using 3 separate strategies: traditional accelerated studies with Arrhenius modeling, and extrapolation of recovery at 20% of shelf life using either ordinary least squares or a radical equation y = B1x(0.5) + B0. Computer simulations were performed to establish equivalence of statistical power to discern the expected changes during frozen storage or accelerated stress. This was followed by actual predictive and follow-up confirmatory testing of 12 chemistry and immunoassay analytes. Linear extrapolations tended to be the most conservative in the predicted percent recovery, reducing customer and patient risk. However, the majority of analytes followed a rate of change that slowed over time, which was fit best to a radical equation of the form y = B1x(0.5) + B0. Other evidence strongly suggested that the slowing of the rate was not due to higher-order kinetics, but to changes in the matrix during storage. Predicting shelf life of frozen products through extrapolation of early initial real-time storage analyte recovery should be considered the most accurate method. Although in this study the time required for a prediction was longer than a typical accelerated testing protocol, there are less potential sources of error, reduced costs, and a lower expenditure of resources. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

  1. Quantifying the life-history response to increased male exposure in female Drosophila melanogaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edward, Dominic A; Fricke, Claudia; Gerrard, Dave T; Chapman, Tracey

    2011-02-01

    Precise estimates of costs and benefits, the fitness economics, of mating are of key importance in understanding how selection shapes the coevolution of male and female mating traits. However, fitness is difficult to define and quantify. Here, we used a novel application of an established analytical technique to calculate individual- and population-based estimates of fitness-including those sensitive to the timing of reproduction-to measure the effects on females of increased exposure to males. Drosophila melanogaster females were exposed to high and low frequencies of contact with males, and life-history traits for each individual female were recorded. We then compared different fitness estimates to determine which of them best described the changes in life histories. We predicted that rate-sensitive estimates would be more accurate, as mating influences the rate of offspring production in this species. The results supported this prediction. Increased exposure to males led to significantly decreased fitness within declining but not stable or increasing populations. There was a net benefit of increased male exposure in expanding populations, despite a significant decrease in lifespan. The study shows how a more accurate description of fitness, and new insights can be achieved by considering individual life-history strategies within the context of population growth. © 2010 The Author(s). Evolution© 2010 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  2. Does the emergency surgery score accurately predict outcomes in emergent laparotomies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peponis, Thomas; Bohnen, Jordan D; Sangji, Naveen F; Nandan, Anirudh R; Han, Kelsey; Lee, Jarone; Yeh, D Dante; de Moya, Marc A; Velmahos, George C; Chang, David C; Kaafarani, Haytham M A

    2017-08-01

    The emergency surgery score is a mortality-risk calculator for emergency general operation patients. We sought to examine whether the emergency surgery score predicts 30-day morbidity and mortality in a high-risk group of patients undergoing emergent laparotomy. Using the 2011-2012 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, we identified all patients who underwent emergent laparotomy using (1) the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program definition of "emergent," and (2) all Current Procedural Terminology codes denoting a laparotomy, excluding aortic aneurysm rupture. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to measure the correlation (c-statistic) between the emergency surgery score and (1) 30-day mortality, and (2) 30-day morbidity after emergent laparotomy. As sensitivity analyses, the correlation between the emergency surgery score and 30-day mortality was also evaluated in prespecified subgroups based on Current Procedural Terminology codes. A total of 26,410 emergent laparotomy patients were included. Thirty-day mortality and morbidity were 10.2% and 43.8%, respectively. The emergency surgery score correlated well with mortality (c-statistic = 0.84); scores of 1, 11, and 22 correlated with mortalities of 0.4%, 39%, and 100%, respectively. Similarly, the emergency surgery score correlated well with morbidity (c-statistic = 0.74); scores of 0, 7, and 11 correlated with complication rates of 13%, 58%, and 79%, respectively. The morbidity rates plateaued for scores higher than 11. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the emergency surgery score effectively predicts mortality in patients undergoing emergent (1) splenic, (2) gastroduodenal, (3) intestinal, (4) hepatobiliary, or (5) incarcerated ventral hernia operation. The emergency surgery score accurately predicts outcomes in all types of emergent laparotomy patients and may prove valuable as a bedside decision

  3. A machine learned classifier that uses gene expression data to accurately predict estrogen receptor status.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meysam Bastani

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Selecting the appropriate treatment for breast cancer requires accurately determining the estrogen receptor (ER status of the tumor. However, the standard for determining this status, immunohistochemical analysis of formalin-fixed paraffin embedded samples, suffers from numerous technical and reproducibility issues. Assessment of ER-status based on RNA expression can provide more objective, quantitative and reproducible test results. METHODS: To learn a parsimonious RNA-based classifier of hormone receptor status, we applied a machine learning tool to a training dataset of gene expression microarray data obtained from 176 frozen breast tumors, whose ER-status was determined by applying ASCO-CAP guidelines to standardized immunohistochemical testing of formalin fixed tumor. RESULTS: This produced a three-gene classifier that can predict the ER-status of a novel tumor, with a cross-validation accuracy of 93.17±2.44%. When applied to an independent validation set and to four other public databases, some on different platforms, this classifier obtained over 90% accuracy in each. In addition, we found that this prediction rule separated the patients' recurrence-free survival curves with a hazard ratio lower than the one based on the IHC analysis of ER-status. CONCLUSIONS: Our efficient and parsimonious classifier lends itself to high throughput, highly accurate and low-cost RNA-based assessments of ER-status, suitable for routine high-throughput clinical use. This analytic method provides a proof-of-principle that may be applicable to developing effective RNA-based tests for other biomarkers and conditions.

  4. In vitro transcription accurately predicts lac repressor phenotype in vivo in Escherichia coli

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Almond Sochor

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available A multitude of studies have looked at the in vivo and in vitro behavior of the lac repressor binding to DNA and effector molecules in order to study transcriptional repression, however these studies are not always reconcilable. Here we use in vitro transcription to directly mimic the in vivo system in order to build a self consistent set of experiments to directly compare in vivo and in vitro genetic repression. A thermodynamic model of the lac repressor binding to operator DNA and effector is used to link DNA occupancy to either normalized in vitro mRNA product or normalized in vivo fluorescence of a regulated gene, YFP. An accurate measurement of repressor, DNA and effector concentrations were made both in vivo and in vitro allowing for direct modeling of the entire thermodynamic equilibrium. In vivo repression profiles are accurately predicted from the given in vitro parameters when molecular crowding is considered. Interestingly, our measured repressor–operator DNA affinity differs significantly from previous in vitro measurements. The literature values are unable to replicate in vivo binding data. We therefore conclude that the repressor-DNA affinity is much weaker than previously thought. This finding would suggest that in vitro techniques that are specifically designed to mimic the in vivo process may be necessary to replicate the native system.

  5. A Weibull statistics-based lignocellulose saccharification model and a built-in parameter accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mingyu; Han, Lijuan; Liu, Shasha; Zhao, Xuebing; Yang, Jinghua; Loh, Soh Kheang; Sun, Xiaomin; Zhang, Chenxi; Fang, Xu

    2015-09-01

    Renewable energy from lignocellulosic biomass has been deemed an alternative to depleting fossil fuels. In order to improve this technology, we aim to develop robust mathematical models for the enzymatic lignocellulose degradation process. By analyzing 96 groups of previously published and newly obtained lignocellulose saccharification results and fitting them to Weibull distribution, we discovered Weibull statistics can accurately predict lignocellulose saccharification data, regardless of the type of substrates, enzymes and saccharification conditions. A mathematical model for enzymatic lignocellulose degradation was subsequently constructed based on Weibull statistics. Further analysis of the mathematical structure of the model and experimental saccharification data showed the significance of the two parameters in this model. In particular, the λ value, defined the characteristic time, represents the overall performance of the saccharification system. This suggestion was further supported by statistical analysis of experimental saccharification data and analysis of the glucose production levels when λ and n values change. In conclusion, the constructed Weibull statistics-based model can accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis behavior and we can use the λ parameter to assess the overall performance of enzymatic lignocellulose degradation. Advantages and potential applications of the model and the λ value in saccharification performance assessment were discussed. Copyright © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  6. Fast reconstruction and prediction of frozen flow turbulence based on structured Kalman filtering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fraanje, P.R.; Rice, J.; Verhaegen, M.; Doelman, N.J.

    2010-01-01

    Efficient and optimal prediction of frozen flow turbulence using the complete observation history of the wavefront sensor is an important issue in adaptive optics for large ground-based telescopes. At least for the sake of error budgeting and algorithm performance, the evaluation of an accurate

  7. Measurement and prediction of thermochemical history effects on sensitization development in austenitic stainless steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruemmer, S.M.; Charlot, L.A.

    1985-11-01

    The effects of thermal and thermomechanical treatments on sensitization development in Type 304 and 316 stainless steels have been measured and compared to model predictions. Sensitization development resulting from isothermal, continuous cooling and pipe welding treatments has been evaluated. An empirically modified, theoretically based model is shown to accurately predict material degree of sensitization (DOS) as expressed by the electrochemical potentiokinetic reactivation (EPR) test after both simple and complex treatments. Material DOS is also examined using analytical electron microscopy to document grain boundary chromium depletion and is compared to EPR test results

  8. A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Costa, A.; Crespo, A.; Navarro, J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper makes a brief review on 30 years of history of the wind power short-term prediction, since the first ideas and sketches on the theme to the actual state of the art oil models and tools, giving emphasis to the most significant proposals and developments. The two principal lines of thought...... on short-term prediction (mathematical and physical) are indistinctly treated here and comparisons between models and tools are avoided, mainly because, on the one hand, a standard for a measure of performance is still not adopted and, on the other hand, it is very important that the data are exactly...

  9. Smoking History Predicts Sensitivity to PARP Inhibitor Veliparib in Patients with Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reck, Martin; Blais, Normand; Juhasz, Erzsebet; Gorbunova, Vera; Jones, C Michael; Urban, Laszlo; Orlov, Sergey; Barlesi, Fabrice; Kio, Ebenezer; Keilholz, Ulrich; Qin, Qin; Qian, Jiang; Nickner, Caroline; Dziubinski, Juliann; Xiong, Hao; Mittapalli, Rajendar K; Dunbar, Martin; Ansell, Peter; He, Lei; McKee, Mark; Giranda, Vincent; Ramalingam, Suresh S

    2017-07-01

    Tobacco-related NSCLC is associated with reduced survival and greater genomic instability. Veliparib, a potent poly(adenosine diphosphate-ribose) polymerase inhibitor, augments platinum-induced DNA damage. A phase 2 trial of untreated advanced NSCLC showed a trend for improved outcomes (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.80, 95% confidence interval: 0.54-1.18, p = 0.27 for overall survival and HR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.45-1.15, p = 0.17 for progression-free survival) when veliparib was added to carboplatin/paclitaxel. Here we report an exploratory analysis by smoking history. Patients were randomized 2:1 to receive carboplatin/paclitaxel with veliparib, 120 mg (n = 105), or placebo (n = 53). Patients were stratified by histologic subtype and smoking history (recent smokers [n = 95], former smokers [n = 42], and never-smokers [n = 21]). Plasma cotinine level was measured as a chemical index of smoking. Mutation status was assessed by whole exome sequencing (n = 38). Smoking history, histologic subtype, age, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, sex, and geographic region predicted veliparib benefit in univariate analyses. In multivariate analysis, history of recent smoking was most predictive for veliparib benefit. Recent smokers treated with veliparib derived significantly greater progression-free survival and overall survival benefits (HR = 0.38 [p Smoking history predicted for efficacy with a veliparib-chemotherapy combination; toxicity was acceptable regardless of smoking history. A prespecified analysis of recent smokers is planned for ongoing phase 3 studies of veliparib in NSCLC. Copyright © 2017 International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. PredictSNP2: A Unified Platform for Accurately Evaluating SNP Effects by Exploiting the Different Characteristics of Variants in Distinct Genomic Regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendl, Jaroslav; Musil, Miloš; Štourač, Jan; Zendulka, Jaroslav; Damborský, Jiří; Brezovský, Jan

    2016-05-01

    An important message taken from human genome sequencing projects is that the human population exhibits approximately 99.9% genetic similarity. Variations in the remaining parts of the genome determine our identity, trace our history and reveal our heritage. The precise delineation of phenotypically causal variants plays a key role in providing accurate personalized diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of inherited diseases. Several computational methods for achieving such delineation have been reported recently. However, their ability to pinpoint potentially deleterious variants is limited by the fact that their mechanisms of prediction do not account for the existence of different categories of variants. Consequently, their output is biased towards the variant categories that are most strongly represented in the variant databases. Moreover, most such methods provide numeric scores but not binary predictions of the deleteriousness of variants or confidence scores that would be more easily understood by users. We have constructed three datasets covering different types of disease-related variants, which were divided across five categories: (i) regulatory, (ii) splicing, (iii) missense, (iv) synonymous, and (v) nonsense variants. These datasets were used to develop category-optimal decision thresholds and to evaluate six tools for variant prioritization: CADD, DANN, FATHMM, FitCons, FunSeq2 and GWAVA. This evaluation revealed some important advantages of the category-based approach. The results obtained with the five best-performing tools were then combined into a consensus score. Additional comparative analyses showed that in the case of missense variations, protein-based predictors perform better than DNA sequence-based predictors. A user-friendly web interface was developed that provides easy access to the five tools' predictions, and their consensus scores, in a user-understandable format tailored to the specific features of different categories of variations. To

  11. Accurate prediction of the dew points of acidic combustion gases by using an artificial neural network model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ZareNezhad, Bahman; Aminian, Ali

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach based on using an artificial neural network (ANN) model for predicting the acid dew points of the combustion gases in process and power plants. The most important acidic combustion gases namely, SO 3 , SO 2 , NO 2 , HCl and HBr are considered in this investigation. Proposed Network is trained using the Levenberg-Marquardt back propagation algorithm and the hyperbolic tangent sigmoid activation function is applied to calculate the output values of the neurons of the hidden layer. According to the network's training, validation and testing results, a three layer neural network with nine neurons in the hidden layer is selected as the best architecture for accurate prediction of the acidic combustion gases dew points over wide ranges of acid and moisture concentrations. The proposed neural network model can have significant application in predicting the condensation temperatures of different acid gases to mitigate the corrosion problems in stacks, pollution control devices and energy recovery systems.

  12. How accurately can 21cm tomography constrain cosmology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Yi; Tegmark, Max; McQuinn, Matthew; Zaldarriaga, Matias; Zahn, Oliver

    2008-07-01

    There is growing interest in using 3-dimensional neutral hydrogen mapping with the redshifted 21 cm line as a cosmological probe. However, its utility depends on many assumptions. To aid experimental planning and design, we quantify how the precision with which cosmological parameters can be measured depends on a broad range of assumptions, focusing on the 21 cm signal from 6noise, to uncertainties in the reionization history, and to the level of contamination from astrophysical foregrounds. We derive simple analytic estimates for how various assumptions affect an experiment’s sensitivity, and we find that the modeling of reionization is the most important, followed by the array layout. We present an accurate yet robust method for measuring cosmological parameters that exploits the fact that the ionization power spectra are rather smooth functions that can be accurately fit by 7 phenomenological parameters. We find that for future experiments, marginalizing over these nuisance parameters may provide constraints almost as tight on the cosmology as if 21 cm tomography measured the matter power spectrum directly. A future square kilometer array optimized for 21 cm tomography could improve the sensitivity to spatial curvature and neutrino masses by up to 2 orders of magnitude, to ΔΩk≈0.0002 and Δmν≈0.007eV, and give a 4σ detection of the spectral index running predicted by the simplest inflation models.

  13. Predicting falls in older adults using the four square step test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleary, Kimberly; Skornyakov, Elena

    2017-10-01

    The Four Square Step Test (FSST) is a performance-based balance tool involving stepping over four single-point canes placed on the floor in a cross configuration. The purpose of this study was to evaluate properties of the FSST in older adults who lived independently. Forty-five community dwelling older adults provided fall history and completed the FSST, Berg Balance Scale (BBS), Timed Up and Go (TUG), and Tinetti in random order. Future falls were recorded for 12 months following testing. The FSST accurately distinguished between non-fallers and multiple fallers, and the 15-second threshold score accurately distinguished multiple fallers from non-multiple fallers based on fall history. The FSST predicted future falls, and performance on the FSST was significantly correlated with performance on the BBS, TUG, and Tinetti. However, the test is not appropriate for older adults who use walkers. Overall, the FSST is a valid yet underutilized measure of balance performance and fall prediction tool that physical therapists should consider using in ambulatory community dwelling older adults.

  14. Predicting Customers Churn in a Relational Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalin CIMPOERU

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores how two main classical classification models work and generate predictions through a commercial solution of relational database management system (Microsoft SQL Server 2012. The aim of the paper is to accurately predict churn among a set of customers defined by various discrete and continuous variables, derived from three main data sources: the commercial transactions history; the users’ behavior or events happening on their computers; the specific identity information provided by the customers themselves. On a theoretical side, the paper presents the main concepts and ideas underlying the Decision Tree and Naïve Bayes classifiers and exemplifies some of them with actual hand-made calculations of the data being modeled by the software. On an analytical and practical side, the paper analyzes the graphs and tables generated by the classifying models and also reveal the main data insights. In the end, the classifiers’ accuracy is evaluated based on the test data method. The most accurate one is chosen for generating predictions on the customers’ data where the values of the response variable are not known.

  15. Heterogeneity of long-history migration predicts emotion recognition accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Adrienne; Rychlowska, Magdalena; Niedenthal, Paula M

    2016-06-01

    Recent work (Rychlowska et al., 2015) demonstrated the power of a relatively new cultural dimension, historical heterogeneity, in predicting cultural differences in the endorsement of emotion expression norms. Historical heterogeneity describes the number of source countries that have contributed to a country's present-day population over the last 500 years. People in cultures originating from a large number of source countries may have historically benefited from greater and clearer emotional expressivity, because they lacked a common language and well-established social norms. We therefore hypothesized that in addition to endorsing more expressive display rules, individuals from heterogeneous cultures will also produce facial expressions that are easier to recognize by people from other cultures. By reanalyzing cross-cultural emotion recognition data from 92 papers and 82 cultures, we show that emotion expressions of people from heterogeneous cultures are more easily recognized by observers from other cultures than are the expressions produced in homogeneous cultures. Heterogeneity influences expression recognition rates alongside the individualism-collectivism of the perceivers' culture, as more individualistic cultures were more accurate in emotion judgments than collectivistic cultures. This work reveals the present-day behavioral consequences of long-term historical migration patterns and demonstrates the predictive power of historical heterogeneity. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

    2014-03-01

    There is an urgent need to develop effective vulnerability assessments for evaluating the conservation status of species in a changing climate. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of species to climate change based on the expectation that established assessments such as the IUCN Red List need revising or superseding in light of the threat that climate change brings. However, although previous studies have identified ecological and life history attributes that characterize declining species or those listed as threatened, no study so far has undertaken a quantitative analysis of the attributes that cause species to be at high risk of extinction specifically due to climate change. We developed a simulation approach based on generic life history types to show here that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using a mixture of spatial and demographic variables that can be measured in the present day without the need for complex forecasting models. Most of the variables we found to be important for predicting extinction risk, including occupied area and population size, are already used in species conservation assessments, indicating that present systems may be better able to identify species vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Therefore, although climate change brings many new conservation challenges, we find that it may not be fundamentally different from other threats in terms of assessing extinction risks.

  17. Predicting suitable optoelectronic properties of monoclinic VON semiconductor crystals for photovoltaics using accurate first-principles computations

    KAUST Repository

    Harb, Moussab

    2015-01-01

    Using accurate first-principles quantum calculations based on DFT (including the perturbation theory DFPT) with the range-separated hybrid HSE06 exchange-correlation functional, we predict essential fundamental properties (such as bandgap, optical absorption coefficient, dielectric constant, charge carrier effective masses and exciton binding energy) of two stable monoclinic vanadium oxynitride (VON) semiconductor crystals for solar energy conversion applications. In addition to the predicted band gaps in the optimal range for making single-junction solar cells, both polymorphs exhibit relatively high absorption efficiencies in the visible range, high dielectric constants, high charge carrier mobilities and much lower exciton binding energies than the thermal energy at room temperature. Moreover, their optical absorption, dielectric and exciton dissociation properties are found to be better than those obtained for semiconductors frequently utilized in photovoltaic devices like Si, CdTe and GaAs. These novel results offer a great opportunity for this stoichiometric VON material to be properly synthesized and considered as a new good candidate for photovoltaic applications.

  18. Predicting suitable optoelectronic properties of monoclinic VON semiconductor crystals for photovoltaics using accurate first-principles computations

    KAUST Repository

    Harb, Moussab

    2015-08-26

    Using accurate first-principles quantum calculations based on DFT (including the perturbation theory DFPT) with the range-separated hybrid HSE06 exchange-correlation functional, we predict essential fundamental properties (such as bandgap, optical absorption coefficient, dielectric constant, charge carrier effective masses and exciton binding energy) of two stable monoclinic vanadium oxynitride (VON) semiconductor crystals for solar energy conversion applications. In addition to the predicted band gaps in the optimal range for making single-junction solar cells, both polymorphs exhibit relatively high absorption efficiencies in the visible range, high dielectric constants, high charge carrier mobilities and much lower exciton binding energies than the thermal energy at room temperature. Moreover, their optical absorption, dielectric and exciton dissociation properties are found to be better than those obtained for semiconductors frequently utilized in photovoltaic devices like Si, CdTe and GaAs. These novel results offer a great opportunity for this stoichiometric VON material to be properly synthesized and considered as a new good candidate for photovoltaic applications.

  19. A novel fibrosis index comprising a non-cholesterol sterol accurately predicts HCV-related liver cirrhosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Ydreborg

    Full Text Available Diagnosis of liver cirrhosis is essential in the management of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV infection. Liver biopsy is invasive and thus entails a risk of complications as well as a potential risk of sampling error. Therefore, non-invasive diagnostic tools are preferential. The aim of the present study was to create a model for accurate prediction of liver cirrhosis based on patient characteristics and biomarkers of liver fibrosis, including a panel of non-cholesterol sterols reflecting cholesterol synthesis and absorption and secretion. We evaluated variables with potential predictive significance for liver fibrosis in 278 patients originally included in a multicenter phase III treatment trial for chronic HCV infection. A stepwise multivariate logistic model selection was performed with liver cirrhosis, defined as Ishak fibrosis stage 5-6, as the outcome variable. A new index, referred to as Nordic Liver Index (NoLI in the paper, was based on the model: Log-odds (predicting cirrhosis = -12.17+ (age × 0.11 + (BMI (kg/m(2 × 0.23 + (D7-lathosterol (μg/100 mg cholesterol×(-0.013 + (Platelet count (x10(9/L × (-0.018 + (Prothrombin-INR × 3.69. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC for prediction of cirrhosis was 0.91 (95% CI 0.86-0.96. The index was validated in a separate cohort of 83 patients and the AUROC for this cohort was similar (0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.98. In conclusion, the new index may complement other methods in diagnosing cirrhosis in patients with chronic HCV infection.

  20. Reliable and accurate point-based prediction of cumulative infiltration using soil readily available characteristics: A comparison between GMDH, ANN, and MLR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmati, Mehdi

    2017-08-01

    Developing accurate and reliable pedo-transfer functions (PTFs) to predict soil non-readily available characteristics is one of the most concerned topic in soil science and selecting more appropriate predictors is a crucial factor in PTFs' development. Group method of data handling (GMDH), which finds an approximate relationship between a set of input and output variables, not only provide an explicit procedure to select the most essential PTF input variables, but also results in more accurate and reliable estimates than other mostly applied methodologies. Therefore, the current research was aimed to apply GMDH in comparison with multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) to develop several PTFs to predict soil cumulative infiltration point-basely at specific time intervals (0.5-45 min) using soil readily available characteristics (RACs). In this regard, soil infiltration curves as well as several soil RACs including soil primary particles (clay (CC), silt (Si), and sand (Sa)), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), bulk (Db) and particle (Dp) densities, organic carbon (OC), wet-aggregate stability (WAS), electrical conductivity (EC), and soil antecedent (θi) and field saturated (θfs) water contents were measured at 134 different points in Lighvan watershed, northwest of Iran. Then, applying GMDH, MLR, and ANN methodologies, several PTFs have been developed to predict cumulative infiltrations using two sets of selected soil RACs including and excluding Ks. According to the test data, results showed that developed PTFs by GMDH and MLR procedures using all soil RACs including Ks resulted in more accurate (with E values of 0.673-0.963) and reliable (with CV values lower than 11 percent) predictions of cumulative infiltrations at different specific time steps. In contrast, ANN procedure had lower accuracy (with E values of 0.356-0.890) and reliability (with CV values up to 50 percent) compared to GMDH and MLR. The results also revealed

  1. Perceived Physician-informed Weight Status Predicts Accurate Weight Self-Perception and Weight Self-Regulation in Low-income, African American Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Charlie L; Strayhorn, Gregory; Moore, Sandra; Goldman, Brian; Martin, Michelle Y

    2016-01-01

    Obese African American women under-appraise their body mass index (BMI) classification and report fewer weight loss attempts than women who accurately appraise their weight status. This cross-sectional study examined whether physician-informed weight status could predict weight self-perception and weight self-regulation strategies in obese women. A convenience sample of 118 low-income women completed a survey assessing demographic characteristics, comorbidities, weight self-perception, and weight self-regulation strategies. BMI was calculated during nurse triage. Binary logistic regression models were performed to test hypotheses. The odds of obese accurate appraisers having been informed about their weight status were six times greater than those of under-appraisers. The odds of those using an "approach" self-regulation strategy having been physician-informed were four times greater compared with those using an "avoidance" strategy. Physicians are uniquely positioned to influence accurate weight self-perception and adaptive weight self-regulation strategies in underserved women, reducing their risk for obesity-related morbidity.

  2. Predicted osteotomy planes are accurate when using patient-specific instrumentation for total knee arthroplasty in cadavers: a descriptive analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kievit, A J; Dobbe, J G G; Streekstra, G J; Blankevoort, L; Schafroth, M U

    2018-06-01

    Malalignment of implants is a major source of failure during total knee arthroplasty. To achieve more accurate 3D planning and execution of the osteotomy cuts during surgery, the Signature (Biomet, Warsaw) patient-specific instrumentation (PSI) was used to produce pin guides for the positioning of the osteotomy blocks by means of computer-aided manufacture based on CT scan images. The research question of this study is: what is the transfer accuracy of osteotomy planes predicted by the Signature PSI system for preoperative 3D planning and intraoperative block-guided pin placement to perform total knee arthroplasty procedures? The transfer accuracy achieved by using the Signature PSI system was evaluated by comparing the osteotomy planes predicted preoperatively with the osteotomy planes seen intraoperatively in human cadaveric legs. Outcomes were measured in terms of translational and rotational errors (varus, valgus, flexion, extension and axial rotation) for both tibia and femur osteotomies. Average translational errors between the osteotomy planes predicted using the Signature system and the actual osteotomy planes achieved was 0.8 mm (± 0.5 mm) for the tibia and 0.7 mm (± 4.0 mm) for the femur. Average rotational errors in relation to predicted and achieved osteotomy planes were 0.1° (± 1.2°) of varus and 0.4° (± 1.7°) of anterior slope (extension) for the tibia, and 2.8° (± 2.0°) of varus and 0.9° (± 2.7°) of flexion and 1.4° (± 2.2°) of external rotation for the femur. The similarity between osteotomy planes predicted using the Signature system and osteotomy planes actually achieved was excellent for the tibia although some discrepancies were seen for the femur. The use of 3D system techniques in TKA surgery can provide accurate intraoperative guidance, especially for patients with deformed bone, tailored to individual patients and ensure better placement of the implant.

  3. Mini-Mental Status Examination: a short form of MMSE was as accurate as the original MMSE in predicting dementia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz-Larsen, Kirsten; Lomholt, Rikke Kirstine; Kreiner, Svend

    2006-01-01

    .4%), and positive predictive value (71.0%) but equal area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Cross-validation on follow-up data confirmed the results. CONCLUSION: A short, valid MMSE, which is as sensitive and specific as the original MMSE for the screening of cognitive impairments and dementia......OBJECTIVES: This study assesses the properties of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) with the purpose of improving the efficiencies of the methods of screening for cognitive impairment and dementia. A specific purpose was to determine whether an abbreviated version would be as accurate...... is attractive for research and clinical practice, particularly if predictive power can be enhanced by combining the short MMSE with neuropsychological tests or informant reports....

  4. Deformation, Failure, and Fatigue Life of SiC/Ti-15-3 Laminates Accurately Predicted by MAC/GMC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

    2002-01-01

    NASA Glenn Research Center's Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) (ref.1) has been extended to enable fully coupled macro-micro deformation, failure, and fatigue life predictions for advanced metal matrix, ceramic matrix, and polymer matrix composites. Because of the multiaxial nature of the code's underlying micromechanics model, GMC--which allows the incorporation of complex local inelastic constitutive models--MAC/GMC finds its most important application in metal matrix composites, like the SiC/Ti-15-3 composite examined here. Furthermore, since GMC predicts the microscale fields within each constituent of the composite material, submodels for local effects such as fiber breakage, interfacial debonding, and matrix fatigue damage can and have been built into MAC/GMC. The present application of MAC/GMC highlights the combination of these features, which has enabled the accurate modeling of the deformation, failure, and life of titanium matrix composites.

  5. Limited Sampling Strategy for Accurate Prediction of Pharmacokinetics of Saroglitazar: A 3-point Linear Regression Model Development and Successful Prediction of Human Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Shuchi N; Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Parmar, Deven V

    2018-03-01

    Our aim was to develop and validate the extrapolative performance of a regression model using a limited sampling strategy for accurate estimation of the area under the plasma concentration versus time curve for saroglitazar. Healthy subject pharmacokinetic data from a well-powered food-effect study (fasted vs fed treatments; n = 50) was used in this work. The first 25 subjects' serial plasma concentration data up to 72 hours and corresponding AUC 0-t (ie, 72 hours) from the fasting group comprised a training dataset to develop the limited sampling model. The internal datasets for prediction included the remaining 25 subjects from the fasting group and all 50 subjects from the fed condition of the same study. The external datasets included pharmacokinetic data for saroglitazar from previous single-dose clinical studies. Limited sampling models were composed of 1-, 2-, and 3-concentration-time points' correlation with AUC 0-t of saroglitazar. Only models with regression coefficients (R 2 ) >0.90 were screened for further evaluation. The best R 2 model was validated for its utility based on mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error. Both correlations between predicted and observed AUC 0-t of saroglitazar and verification of precision and bias using Bland-Altman plot were carried out. None of the evaluated 1- and 2-concentration-time points models achieved R 2 > 0.90. Among the various 3-concentration-time points models, only 4 equations passed the predefined criterion of R 2 > 0.90. Limited sampling models with time points 0.5, 2, and 8 hours (R 2 = 0.9323) and 0.75, 2, and 8 hours (R 2 = 0.9375) were validated. Mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error were prediction of saroglitazar. The same models, when applied to the AUC 0-t prediction of saroglitazar sulfoxide, showed mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error model predicts the exposure of

  6. A History of Non-Parental Care in Childhood Predicts More Positive Adult Attitudes towards Non-Parental Care and Maternal Employment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shpancer, Noam; Schweitzer, Stefanie N.

    2018-01-01

    Data were collected over a 15-year span from three comparable cohorts of students at a Midwestern university about their childcare histories and current attitudes towards non-parental childcare and maternal employment. Across cohorts, a history of non-parental childcare predicted adult attitudes towards non-parental childcare and maternal…

  7. Clinical history and biologic age predicted falls better than objective functional tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerdhem, Paul; Ringsberg, Karin A M; Akesson, Kristina; Obrant, Karl J

    2005-03-01

    Fall risk assessment is important because the consequences, such as a fracture, may be devastating. The objective of this study was to find the test or tests that best predicted falls in a population-based sample of elderly women. The fall-predictive ability of a questionnaire, a subjective estimate of biologic age and objective functional tests (gait, balance [Romberg and sway test], thigh muscle strength, and visual acuity) were compared in 984 randomly selected women, all 75 years of age. A recalled fall was the most important predictor for future falls. Only recalled falls and intake of psycho-active drugs independently predicted future falls. Women with at least five of the most important fall predictors (previous falls, conditions affecting the balance, tendency to fall, intake of psychoactive medication, inability to stand on one leg, high biologic age) had an odds ratio of 11.27 (95% confidence interval 4.61-27.60) for a fall (sensitivity 70%, specificity 79%). The more time-consuming objective functional tests were of limited importance for fall prediction. A simple clinical history, the inability to stand on one leg, and a subjective estimate of biologic age were more important as part of the fall risk assessment.

  8. The Relative Importance of Family History, Gender, Mode of Onset, and Age at Onsetin Predicting Clinical Features of First-Episode Psychotic Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compton, Michael T; Berez, Chantal; Walker, Elaine F

    Family history of psychosis, gender, mode of onset, and age at onset are considered prognostic factors important to clinicians evaluating first-episode psychosis; yet, clinicians have little guidance as to how these four factors differentially predict early-course substance abuse, symptomatology, and functioning. We conducted a "head-to-head comparison" of these four factors regarding their associations with key clinical features at initial hospitalization. We also assessed potential interactions between gender and family history with regard to age at onset of psychosis and symptom severity. Consecutively admitted first-episode patients (n=334) were evaluated in two studies that rigorously assessed a number of early-course variables. Associations among variables of interest were examined using Pearson correlations, χ 2 tests, Student's t-tests, and 2×2 factorial analyses of variance. Substance (nicotine, alcohol, and cannabis) abuse and positive symptom severity were predicted only by male gender. Negative symptom severity and global functioning impairments were predicted by earlier age at onset of psychosis. General psychopathology symptom severity was predicted by both mode of onset and age at onset. Interaction effects were not observed with regard to gender and family history in predicting age at onset or symptom severity. The four prognostic features have differential associations with substance abuse, domains of symptom severity, and global functioning. Gender and age at onset of psychosis appear to be more predictive of clinical features at the time of initial evaluation (and thus presumably longer term outcomes) than the presence of a family history of psychosis and a more gradual mode of onset.

  9. Compound risk: History of traumatic stress predicts posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms and severity in sudden cardiac arrest survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosman, Lindsey; Ford, Jessica; Whited, Amanda; Cahill, John; Lampert, Rachel; Mosesso, Vincent N; Lawless, Christine; Sears, Samuel F

    2016-08-01

    Sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) survivors can develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) which is associated with worse clinical outcomes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and predictors of PTSD in a large sample of SCA survivors. Prior history of psychological trauma and the effects of repeated trauma exposure on subsequent PTSD and symptom severity after SCA were also explored. A retrospective, cross-sectional study of 188 SCA survivors from the Sudden Cardiac Arrest Association patient registry completed an online questionnaire that included measures of PTSD, trauma history, sociodemographics, general health, and cardiac history. Sixty-three (36.2%) SCA survivors in this sample scored above the clinical cutoff for PTSD. Female gender, worse general health, and younger age predicted PTSD symptoms after SCA. Additionally, 50.2% of SCA survivors (n = 95) reported a history of trauma exposure and 25.4% (n = 48) of the total sample endorsed a traumatic stress response to a historic trauma. Results indicated that a traumatic stress response to a historic trauma was a stronger predictor of PTSD after SCA (odds ratio = 4.77) than all other variables in the model. PTSD symptoms are present in over one-third of SCA survivors. While demographic or health history variables predicted PTSD after SCA, a history of traumatic stress response to a previous trauma emerged as the strongest predictor of these symptoms. Routine assessment and interdisciplinary management are discussed as potential ways to expedite survivors' recovery and return to daily living. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

  10. Do Skilled Elementary Teachers Hold Scientific Conceptions and Can They Accurately Predict the Type and Source of Students' Preconceptions of Electric Circuits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jing-Wen

    2016-01-01

    Holding scientific conceptions and having the ability to accurately predict students' preconceptions are a prerequisite for science teachers to design appropriate constructivist-oriented learning experiences. This study explored the types and sources of students' preconceptions of electric circuits. First, 438 grade 3 (9 years old) students were…

  11. Prediction of pathogen growth on iceberg lettuce under real temperature history during distribution from farm to table.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koseki, Shigenobu; Isobe, Seiichiro

    2005-10-25

    The growth of pathogenic bacteria Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella spp., and Listeria monocytogenes on iceberg lettuce under constant and fluctuating temperatures was modelled in order to estimate the microbial safety of this vegetable during distribution from the farm to the table. Firstly, we examined pathogen growth on lettuce at constant temperatures, ranging from 5 to 25 degrees C, and then we obtained the growth kinetic parameters (lag time, maximum growth rate (micro(max)), and maximum population density (MPD)) using the Baranyi primary growth model. The parameters were similar to those predicted by the pathogen modelling program (PMP), with the exception of MPD. The MPD of each pathogen on lettuce was 2-4 log(10) CFU/g lower than that predicted by PMP. Furthermore, the MPD of pathogens decreased with decreasing temperature. The relationship between mu(max) and temperature was linear in accordance with Ratkowsky secondary model as was the relationship between the MPD and temperature. Predictions of pathogen growth under fluctuating temperature used the Baranyi primary microbial growth model along with the Ratkowsky secondary model and MPD equation. The fluctuating temperature profile used in this study was the real temperature history measured during distribution from the field at harvesting to the retail store. Overall predictions for each pathogen agreed well with observed viable counts in most cases. The bias and root mean square error (RMSE) of the prediction were small. The prediction in which mu(max) was based on PMP showed a trend of overestimation relative to prediction based on lettuce. However, the prediction concerning E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella spp. on lettuce greatly overestimated growth in the case of a temperature history starting relatively high, such as 25 degrees C for 5 h. In contrast, the overall prediction of L. monocytogenes under the same circumstances agreed with the observed data.

  12. Crystal Graph Convolutional Neural Networks for an Accurate and Interpretable Prediction of Material Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Tian; Grossman, Jeffrey C.

    2018-04-01

    The use of machine learning methods for accelerating the design of crystalline materials usually requires manually constructed feature vectors or complex transformation of atom coordinates to input the crystal structure, which either constrains the model to certain crystal types or makes it difficult to provide chemical insights. Here, we develop a crystal graph convolutional neural networks framework to directly learn material properties from the connection of atoms in the crystal, providing a universal and interpretable representation of crystalline materials. Our method provides a highly accurate prediction of density functional theory calculated properties for eight different properties of crystals with various structure types and compositions after being trained with 1 04 data points. Further, our framework is interpretable because one can extract the contributions from local chemical environments to global properties. Using an example of perovskites, we show how this information can be utilized to discover empirical rules for materials design.

  13. Accurate X-Ray Spectral Predictions: An Advanced Self-Consistent-Field Approach Inspired by Many-Body Perturbation Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yufeng; Vinson, John; Pemmaraju, Sri; Drisdell, Walter S; Shirley, Eric L; Prendergast, David

    2017-03-03

    Constrained-occupancy delta-self-consistent-field (ΔSCF) methods and many-body perturbation theories (MBPT) are two strategies for obtaining electronic excitations from first principles. Using the two distinct approaches, we study the O 1s core excitations that have become increasingly important for characterizing transition-metal oxides and understanding strong electronic correlation. The ΔSCF approach, in its current single-particle form, systematically underestimates the pre-edge intensity for chosen oxides, despite its success in weakly correlated systems. By contrast, the Bethe-Salpeter equation within MBPT predicts much better line shapes. This motivates one to reexamine the many-electron dynamics of x-ray excitations. We find that the single-particle ΔSCF approach can be rectified by explicitly calculating many-electron transition amplitudes, producing x-ray spectra in excellent agreement with experiments. This study paves the way to accurately predict x-ray near-edge spectral fingerprints for physics and materials science beyond the Bethe-Salpether equation.

  14. Development of a method to accurately calculate the Dpb and quickly predict the strength of a chemical bond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du, Xia; Zhao, Dong-Xia; Yang, Zhong-Zhi

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A method from new respect to characterize and measure the bond strength is proposed. ► We calculate the D pb of a series of various bonds to justify our approach. ► A quite good linear relationship of the D pb with the bond lengths for series of various bonds is shown. ► Take the prediction of strengths of C–H and N–H bonds for base pairs in DNA as a practical application of our method. - Abstract: A new approach to characterize and measure bond strength has been developed. First, we propose a method to accurately calculate the potential acting on an electron in a molecule (PAEM) at the saddle point along a chemical bond in situ, denoted by D pb . Then, a direct method to quickly evaluate bond strength is established. We choose some familiar molecules as models for benchmarking this method. As a practical application, the D pb of base pairs in DNA along C–H and N–H bonds are obtained for the first time. All results show that C 7 –H of A–T and C 8 –H of G–C are the relatively weak bonds that are the injured positions in DNA damage. The significance of this work is twofold: (i) A method is developed to calculate D pb of various sizable molecules in situ quickly and accurately; (ii) This work demonstrates the feasibility to quickly predict the bond strength in macromolecules

  15. Prediction of Happy-Sad mood from daily behaviors and previous sleep history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sano, Akane; Yu, Amy Z; McHill, Andrew W; Phillips, Andrew J K; Taylor, Sara; Jaques, Natasha; Klerman, Elizabeth B; Picard, Rosalind W

    2015-01-01

    We collected and analyzed subjective and objective data using surveys and wearable sensors worn day and night from 68 participants for ~30 days each, to address questions related to the relationships among sleep duration, sleep irregularity, self-reported Happy-Sad mood and other daily behavioral factors in college students. We analyzed this behavioral and physiological data to (i) identify factors that classified the participants into Happy-Sad mood using support vector machines (SVMs); and (ii) analyze how accurately sleep duration and sleep regularity for the past 1-5 days classified morning Happy-Sad mood. We found statistically significant associations amongst Sad mood and poor health-related factors. Behavioral factors including the frequency of negative social interactions, and negative emails, and total academic activity hours showed the best performance in separating the Happy-Sad mood groups. Sleep regularity and sleep duration predicted daily Happy-Sad mood with 65-80% accuracy. The number of nights giving the best prediction of Happy-Sad mood varied for different individuals.

  16. Lessons learned from family history in ocular genetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marino, Meghan J

    2015-07-01

    Given the vast genetic and phenotypic heterogeneity seen in ocular genetic disorders, considering a patient's clinical phenotype in the context of the family history is essential. Clinicians can improve patient care by appropriately incorporating a patient's family history into their evaluation. Obtaining, reviewing, and accurately interpreting the pedigree are skills geneticists and genetic counselors possess. However, with the field of ophthalmic genetics vastly growing, it is becoming essential for ophthalmologists to understand the utility of the pedigree and develop their abilities in eliciting this information. By not considering a patient's clinical history in the context of the family history, diagnoses can be missed or inaccurate. The purpose of this review is to inform ophthalmologists on the importance of the family history and highlight how the pedigree can aid in establishing an accurate genetic diagnosis. This review also provides to ophthalmologists helpful tips on eliciting and interpreting a patient's family history.

  17. Fracture predictive ability of physical performance tests and history of falls in elderly women: a 10-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wihlborg, A; Englund, M; Åkesson, K; Gerdhem, P

    2015-08-01

    In a large cohort of elderly women followed for 10 years, we found that balance, gait speed, and self-reported history of fall independently predicted fracture. These clinical risk factors are easily evaluated and therefore advantageous in a clinical setting. They would improve fracture risk assessment and thereby also fracture prevention. The aim of this study was to identify additional risk factors for osteoporosis-related fracture by investigating the fracture predictive ability of physical performance tests and self-reported history of falls. In the population-based Osteoporosis Prospective Risk Assessment study (OPRA), 1044 women were recruited at the age of 75 and followed for 10 years. At inclusion, knee extension force, standing balance, gait speed, and bone mineral density (BMD) were examined. Falls the year before investigation was assessed by questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to determine fracture hazard ratios (HR) with BMD, history of fracture, BMI, smoking habits, bisphosphonate, vitamin D, glucocorticoid, and alcohol use as covariates. Continuous variables were standardized and HR shown for each standard deviation change. Of all women, 427 (41%) sustained at least one fracture during the 10-year follow-up. Failing the balance test had an HR of 1.98 (1.18-3.32) for hip fracture. Each standard deviation decrease in gait speed was associated with an HR of 1.37 (1.14-1.64) for hip fracture. Previous fall had an HR of 1.30 (1.03-1.65) for any fracture; 1.39 (1.08-1.79) for any osteoporosis-related fracture; and 1.60 (1.03-2.48) for distal forearm fracture. Knee extension force did not show fracture predictability. The balance test, gait speed test, and self-reported history of fall all hold independent fracture predictability. Consideration of these clinical risk factors for fracture would improve the fracture risk assessment and subsequently also fracture prevention.

  18. Long-term studies of the natural history of asthma in childhood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisgaard, Hans; Bønnelykke, Klaus

    2010-01-01

    Segmentation of children with asthma and other wheezy disorders remains the main research challenge today, as it was when described 2 centuries ago. Early childhood wheezy disorders follow different temporal trajectories, probably representing different underlying mechanisms (endophenotypes...... secondary prevention through the use of inhaled corticosteroids can effectively halt the long-term disease progression in childhood. In conclusion, the natural history of asthma and the associated airway changes is still poorly understood, and we have not managed to translate findings from long-term studies......). Prospective identification of endophenotypes allowing accurate prediction of the clinical course is currently not possible. The variability of the clinical course remains an enigma and difficult to predict. Three of 4 school-aged children with asthma have outgrown disease by midadulthood. The risk...

  19. Report on approaches to predicting probability of cyanobacteria blooms or related indices based on nutrient inputs and other ecosystem attributes in lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Despite a lengthy history of research on cyanobacteria, many important questions about this diverse group of aquatic, photosynthetic “blue-green algae” remain unanswered. For example, how can we more accurately predict cyanobacteria blooms in freshwater systems? Whi...

  20. Predictive value of pregnancy history in subfertile couples: results from a nationwide cohort study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Steeg, Jan W.; Steures, Pieternel; Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.; Habbema, J. Dik F.; Hompes, Peter G. A.; Michgelsen, Henri W. B.; van der Heijden, Pieter F. M.; Bossuyt, Patrick M. M.; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben W. J.

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess whether pregnancy history can predict the occurrence of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy in subfertile couples. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Thirty fertility centers in the Netherlands. PATIENT(S): Subfertile, ovulatory women with at least one patent tube and male

  1. Predictive value of pregnancy history in subfertile couples: results from a nationwide cohort study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Steeg, J.W.; Steures, P.; Eijkemans, M.J.C.; Habbema, J.D.F.; Hompes, P.G.A.; Michgelsen, H.W.B.; van der Heijden, P.F.M.; Bossuyt, P.M.M.; van der Veen, F.; Mol, B.W.J.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To assess whether pregnancy history can predict the occurrence of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy in subfertile couples. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Thirty fertility centers in the Netherlands. Patient(s): Subfertile, ovulatory women with at least one patent tube and male

  2. Can family history and cord blood IgE predict sensitization and allergic diseases up to adulthood?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borrits Pagh Nissen, Susanne; Fomsgaard Kjær, Henrik; Høst, Arne

    2015-01-01

    with high NPV and specificity, but low PPV and sensitivity. CONCLUSION: Although family history and elevated CB-IgE were significantly associated with primarily atopic disease until 26 yr, none of these were strong predictors for subsequent sensitization and allergic symptoms from childhood until early......BACKGROUND: Long-term studies of the predictive value of family history and cord blood IgE level until adulthood are few, and their conclusions have been contradictory. METHODS: Screening of total IgE in 1617 cord blood samples was performed in a Danish birth cohort. All infants with cord blood Ig...... used. RESULTS: A total of 455 infants were included, 188 with CB-IgE ≥0.5 kU/l and 267 with CB-IgE history and elevated CB-IgE were significantly associated to allergic disease until 26 yr. Concerning any allergic...

  3. Accurate Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Using Bioinformatics Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajar Shafiee

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Cardiovascular disease is one of the main causes of death in developed and Third World countries. According to the statement of the World Health Organization, it is predicted that death due to heart disease will rise to 23 million by 2030. According to the latest statistics reported by Iran’s Minister of health, 3.39% of all deaths are attributed to cardiovascular diseases and 19.5% are related to myocardial infarction. The aim of this study was to predict coronary artery disease using data mining algorithms. Methods: In this study, various bioinformatics algorithms, such as decision trees, neural networks, support vector machines, clustering, etc., were used to predict coronary heart disease. The data used in this study was taken from several valid databases (including 14 data. Results: In this research, data mining techniques can be effectively used to diagnose different diseases, including coronary artery disease. Also, for the first time, a prediction system based on support vector machine with the best possible accuracy was introduced. Conclusion: The results showed that among the features, thallium scan variable is the most important feature in the diagnosis of heart disease. Designation of machine prediction models, such as support vector machine learning algorithm can differentiate between sick and healthy individuals with 100% accuracy.

  4. A Deep Learning Framework for Robust and Accurate Prediction of ncRNA-Protein Interactions Using Evolutionary Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Hai-Cheng; You, Zhu-Hong; Huang, De-Shuang; Li, Xiao; Jiang, Tong-Hai; Li, Li-Ping

    2018-06-01

    The interactions between non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs) and proteins play an important role in many biological processes, and their biological functions are primarily achieved by binding with a variety of proteins. High-throughput biological techniques are used to identify protein molecules bound with specific ncRNA, but they are usually expensive and time consuming. Deep learning provides a powerful solution to computationally predict RNA-protein interactions. In this work, we propose the RPI-SAN model by using the deep-learning stacked auto-encoder network to mine the hidden high-level features from RNA and protein sequences and feed them into a random forest (RF) model to predict ncRNA binding proteins. Stacked assembling is further used to improve the accuracy of the proposed method. Four benchmark datasets, including RPI2241, RPI488, RPI1807, and NPInter v2.0, were employed for the unbiased evaluation of five established prediction tools: RPI-Pred, IPMiner, RPISeq-RF, lncPro, and RPI-SAN. The experimental results show that our RPI-SAN model achieves much better performance than other methods, with accuracies of 90.77%, 89.7%, 96.1%, and 99.33%, respectively. It is anticipated that RPI-SAN can be used as an effective computational tool for future biomedical researches and can accurately predict the potential ncRNA-protein interacted pairs, which provides reliable guidance for biological research. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Watershed area ratio accurately predicts daily streamflow in nested catchments in the Catskills, New York

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris C. Gianfagna

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Watershed area ratio was the most important basin parameter for estimating flow at upstream sites based on downstream flow. The area ratio alone explained 93% of the variance in the slopes of relationships between upstream and downstream flows. Regression analysis indicated that flow at any upstream point can be estimated by multiplying the flow at a downstream reference gage by the watershed area ratio. This method accurately predicted upstream flows at area ratios as low as 0.005. We also observed a very strong relationship (R2 = 0.79 between area ratio and flow–flow slopes in non-nested catchments. Our results indicate that a simple flow estimation method based on watershed area ratios is justifiable, and indeed preferred, for the estimation of daily streamflow in ungaged watersheds in the Catskills region.

  6. Accurate and Reliable Prediction of the Binding Affinities of Macrocycles to Their Protein Targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Haoyu S; Deng, Yuqing; Wu, Yujie; Sindhikara, Dan; Rask, Amy R; Kimura, Takayuki; Abel, Robert; Wang, Lingle

    2017-12-12

    Macrocycles have been emerging as a very important drug class in the past few decades largely due to their expanded chemical diversity benefiting from advances in synthetic methods. Macrocyclization has been recognized as an effective way to restrict the conformational space of acyclic small molecule inhibitors with the hope of improving potency, selectivity, and metabolic stability. Because of their relatively larger size as compared to typical small molecule drugs and the complexity of the structures, efficient sampling of the accessible macrocycle conformational space and accurate prediction of their binding affinities to their target protein receptors poses a great challenge of central importance in computational macrocycle drug design. In this article, we present a novel method for relative binding free energy calculations between macrocycles with different ring sizes and between the macrocycles and their corresponding acyclic counterparts. We have applied the method to seven pharmaceutically interesting data sets taken from recent drug discovery projects including 33 macrocyclic ligands covering a diverse chemical space. The predicted binding free energies are in good agreement with experimental data with an overall root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.94 kcal/mol. This is to our knowledge the first time where the free energy of the macrocyclization of linear molecules has been directly calculated with rigorous physics-based free energy calculation methods, and we anticipate the outstanding accuracy demonstrated here across a broad range of target classes may have significant implications for macrocycle drug discovery.

  7. Towards more accurate and reliable predictions for nuclear applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goriely, S.

    2015-01-01

    The need for nuclear data far from the valley of stability, for applications such as nuclear astrophysics or future nuclear facilities, challenges the robustness as well as the predictive power of present nuclear models. Most of the nuclear data evaluation and prediction are still performed on the basis of phenomenological nuclear models. For the last decades, important progress has been achieved in fundamental nuclear physics, making it now feasible to use more reliable, but also more complex microscopic or semi-microscopic models in the evaluation and prediction of nuclear data for practical applications. In the present contribution, the reliability and accuracy of recent nuclear theories are discussed for most of the relevant quantities needed to estimate reaction cross sections and beta-decay rates, namely nuclear masses, nuclear level densities, gamma-ray strength, fission properties and beta-strength functions. It is shown that nowadays, mean-field models can be tuned at the same level of accuracy as the phenomenological models, renormalized on experimental data if needed, and therefore can replace the phenomenogical inputs in the prediction of nuclear data. While fundamental nuclear physicists keep on improving state-of-the-art models, e.g. within the shell model or ab initio models, nuclear applications could make use of their most recent results as quantitative constraints or guides to improve the predictions in energy or mass domain that will remain inaccessible experimentally. (orig.)

  8. A Prediction Method of Airport Noise Based on Hybrid Ensemble Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao XU

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Using monitoring history data to build and to train a prediction model for airport noise is a normal method in recent years. However, the single model built in different ways has various performances in the storage, efficiency and accuracy. In order to predict the noise accurately in some complex environment around airport, this paper presents a prediction method based on hybrid ensemble learning. The proposed method ensembles three algorithms: artificial neural network as an active learner, nearest neighbor as a passive leaner and nonlinear regression as a synthesized learner. The experimental results show that the three learners can meet forecast demands respectively in on- line, near-line and off-line. And the accuracy of prediction is improved by integrating these three learners’ results.

  9. Feedforward signal prediction for accurate motion systems using digital filters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Butler, H.

    2012-01-01

    A positioning system that needs to accurately track a reference can benefit greatly from using feedforward. When using a force actuator, the feedforward needs to generate a force proportional to the reference acceleration, which can be measured by means of an accelerometer or can be created by

  10. Prediction of collision cross section and retention time for broad scope screening in gradient reversed-phase liquid chromatography-ion mobility-high resolution accurate mass spectrometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mollerup, Christian Brinch; Mardal, Marie; Dalsgaard, Petur Weihe

    2018-01-01

    artificial neural networks (ANNs). Prediction was based on molecular descriptors, 827 RTs, and 357 CCS values from pharmaceuticals, drugs of abuse, and their metabolites. ANN models for the prediction of RT or CCS separately were examined, and the potential to predict both from a single model......Exact mass, retention time (RT), and collision cross section (CCS) are used as identification parameters in liquid chromatography coupled to ion mobility high resolution accurate mass spectrometry (LC-IM-HRMS). Targeted screening analyses are now more flexible and can be expanded for suspect...

  11. Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A; Xu, Jing

    2015-01-01

    National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens' attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism), but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth--two key variables for climato-economic theory--predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks). Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history) significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories.

  12. Accurate microRNA target prediction correlates with protein repression levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simossis Victor A

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background MicroRNAs are small endogenously expressed non-coding RNA molecules that regulate target gene expression through translation repression or messenger RNA degradation. MicroRNA regulation is performed through pairing of the microRNA to sites in the messenger RNA of protein coding genes. Since experimental identification of miRNA target genes poses difficulties, computational microRNA target prediction is one of the key means in deciphering the role of microRNAs in development and disease. Results DIANA-microT 3.0 is an algorithm for microRNA target prediction which is based on several parameters calculated individually for each microRNA and combines conserved and non-conserved microRNA recognition elements into a final prediction score, which correlates with protein production fold change. Specifically, for each predicted interaction the program reports a signal to noise ratio and a precision score which can be used as an indication of the false positive rate of the prediction. Conclusion Recently, several computational target prediction programs were benchmarked based on a set of microRNA target genes identified by the pSILAC method. In this assessment DIANA-microT 3.0 was found to achieve the highest precision among the most widely used microRNA target prediction programs reaching approximately 66%. The DIANA-microT 3.0 prediction results are available online in a user friendly web server at http://www.microrna.gr/microT

  13. Prediction of Happy-Sad Mood from Daily Behaviors and Previous Sleep History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sano, Akane; Yu, Amy; McHill, Andrew W.; Phillips, Andrew J. K.; Taylor, Sara; Jaques, Natasha; Klerman, Elizabeth B.; Picard, Rosalind W.

    2016-01-01

    We collected and analyzed subjective and objective data using surveys and wearable sensors worn day and night from 68 participants, for 30 days each, to address questions related to the relationships among sleep duration, sleep irregularity, self-reported Happy-Sad mood and other factors in college students. We analyzed daily and monthly behavior and physiology and identified factors that affect mood, including how accurately sleep duration and sleep regularity for the past 1-5 days classified the participants into high/low mood using support vector machines. We found statistically significant associations among sad mood and poor health-related factors. Behavioral factors such as the percentage of neutral social interactions and the total academic activity hours showed the best performance in separating the Happy-Sad mood groups. Sleep regularity was a more important discriminator of mood than sleep duration for most participants, although both variables predicted happy/sad mood with from 70-82% accuracy. The number of nights giving the best prediction of happy/sad mood varied for different groups of individuals. PMID:26737854

  14. Improvement of a land surface model for accurate prediction of surface energy and water balances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katata, Genki

    2009-02-01

    In order to predict energy and water balances between the biosphere and atmosphere accurately, sophisticated schemes to calculate evaporation and adsorption processes in the soil and cloud (fog) water deposition on vegetation were implemented in the one-dimensional atmosphere-soil-vegetation model including CO 2 exchange process (SOLVEG2). Performance tests in arid areas showed that the above schemes have a significant effect on surface energy and water balances. The framework of the above schemes incorporated in the SOLVEG2 and instruction for running the model are documented. With further modifications of the model to implement the carbon exchanges between the vegetation and soil, deposition processes of materials on the land surface, vegetation stress-growth-dynamics etc., the model is suited to evaluate an effect of environmental loads to ecosystems by atmospheric pollutants and radioactive substances under climate changes such as global warming and drought. (author)

  15. Integrating metabolic performance, thermal tolerance, and plasticity enables for more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to acute and chronic effects of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magozzi, Sarah; Calosi, Piero

    2015-01-01

    Predicting species vulnerability to global warming requires a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of sublethal and lethal thermal tolerances. To date, however, most studies investigating species physiological responses to increasing temperature have focused on the underlying physiological traits of either acute or chronic tolerance in isolation. Here we propose an integrative, synthetic approach including the investigation of multiple physiological traits (metabolic performance and thermal tolerance), and their plasticity, to provide more accurate and balanced predictions on species and assemblage vulnerability to both acute and chronic effects of global warming. We applied this approach to more accurately elucidate relative species vulnerability to warming within an assemblage of six caridean prawns occurring in the same geographic, hence macroclimatic, region, but living in different thermal habitats. Prawns were exposed to four incubation temperatures (10, 15, 20 and 25 °C) for 7 days, their metabolic rates and upper thermal limits were measured, and plasticity was calculated according to the concept of Reaction Norms, as well as Q10 for metabolism. Compared to species occupying narrower/more stable thermal niches, species inhabiting broader/more variable thermal environments (including the invasive Palaemon macrodactylus) are likely to be less vulnerable to extreme acute thermal events as a result of their higher upper thermal limits. Nevertheless, they may be at greater risk from chronic exposure to warming due to the greater metabolic costs they incur. Indeed, a trade-off between acute and chronic tolerance was apparent in the assemblage investigated. However, the invasive species P. macrodactylus represents an exception to this pattern, showing elevated thermal limits and plasticity of these limits, as well as a high metabolic control. In general, integrating multiple proxies for species physiological acute and chronic responses to increasing

  16. Can radiation therapy treatment planning system accurately predict surface doses in postmastectomy radiation therapy patients?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, Sharon; Back, Michael; Tan, Poh Wee; Lee, Khai Mun; Baggarley, Shaun; Lu, Jaide Jay

    2012-01-01

    Skin doses have been an important factor in the dose prescription for breast radiotherapy. Recent advances in radiotherapy treatment techniques, such as intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and new treatment schemes such as hypofractionated breast therapy have made the precise determination of the surface dose necessary. Detailed information of the dose at various depths of the skin is also critical in designing new treatment strategies. The purpose of this work was to assess the accuracy of surface dose calculation by a clinically used treatment planning system and those measured by thermoluminescence dosimeters (TLDs) in a customized chest wall phantom. This study involved the construction of a chest wall phantom for skin dose assessment. Seven TLDs were distributed throughout each right chest wall phantom to give adequate representation of measured radiation doses. Point doses from the CMS Xio® treatment planning system (TPS) were calculated for each relevant TLD positions and results correlated. There were no significant difference between measured absorbed dose by TLD and calculated doses by the TPS (p > 0.05 (1-tailed). Dose accuracy of up to 2.21% was found. The deviations from the calculated absorbed doses were overall larger (3.4%) when wedges and bolus were used. 3D radiotherapy TPS is a useful and accurate tool to assess the accuracy of surface dose. Our studies have shown that radiation treatment accuracy expressed as a comparison between calculated doses (by TPS) and measured doses (by TLD dosimetry) can be accurately predicted for tangential treatment of the chest wall after mastectomy.

  17. Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinguang Zhang

    Full Text Available National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens' attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism, but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth--two key variables for climato-economic theory--predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks. Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories.

  18. Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A.; Xu, Jing

    2015-01-01

    National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens’ attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism), but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth—two key variables for climato-economic theory—predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks). Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history) significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories. PMID:26030736

  19. Accurate Predictions of Mean Geomagnetic Dipole Excursion and Reversal Frequencies, Mean Paleomagnetic Field Intensity, and the Radius of Earth's Core Using McLeod's Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voorhies, Coerte V.; Conrad, Joy

    1996-01-01

    The geomagnetic spatial power spectrum R(sub n)(r) is the mean square magnetic induction represented by degree n spherical harmonic coefficients of the internal scalar potential averaged over the geocentric sphere of radius r. McLeod's Rule for the magnetic field generated by Earth's core geodynamo says that the expected core surface power spectrum (R(sub nc)(c)) is inversely proportional to (2n + 1) for 1 less than n less than or equal to N(sub E). McLeod's Rule is verified by locating Earth's core with main field models of Magsat data; the estimated core radius of 3485 kn is close to the seismologic value for c of 3480 km. McLeod's Rule and similar forms are then calibrated with the model values of R(sub n) for 3 less than or = n less than or = 12. Extrapolation to the degree 1 dipole predicts the expectation value of Earth's dipole moment to be about 5.89 x 10(exp 22) Am(exp 2)rms (74.5% of the 1980 value) and the expected geomagnetic intensity to be about 35.6 (mu)T rms at Earth's surface. Archeo- and paleomagnetic field intensity data show these and related predictions to be reasonably accurate. The probability distribution chi(exp 2) with 2n+1 degrees of freedom is assigned to (2n + 1)R(sub nc)/(R(sub nc). Extending this to the dipole implies that an exceptionally weak absolute dipole moment (less than or = 20% of the 1980 value) will exist during 2.5% of geologic time. The mean duration for such major geomagnetic dipole power excursions, one quarter of which feature durable axial dipole reversal, is estimated from the modern dipole power time-scale and the statistical model of excursions. The resulting mean excursion duration of 2767 years forces us to predict an average of 9.04 excursions per million years, 2.26 axial dipole reversals per million years, and a mean reversal duration of 5533 years. Paleomagnetic data show these predictions to be quite accurate. McLeod's Rule led to accurate predictions of Earth's core radius, mean paleomagnetic field

  20. A simple, fast, and accurate thermodynamic-based approach for transfer and prediction of gas chromatography retention times between columns and instruments Part III: Retention time prediction on target column.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Siyuan; Stevenson, Keisean A J M; Harynuk, James J

    2018-03-27

    This is the third part of a three-part series of papers. In Part I, we presented a method for determining the actual effective geometry of a reference column as well as the thermodynamic-based parameters of a set of probe compounds in an in-house mixture. Part II introduced an approach for estimating the actual effective geometry of a target column by collecting retention data of the same mixture of probe compounds on the target column and using their thermodynamic parameters, acquired on the reference column, as a bridge between both systems. Part III, presented here, demonstrates the retention time transfer and prediction from the reference column to the target column using experimental data for a separate mixture of compounds. To predict the retention time of a new compound, we first estimate its thermodynamic-based parameters on the reference column (using geometric parameters determined previously). The compound's retention time on a second column (of previously determined geometry) is then predicted. The models and the associated optimization algorithms were tested using simulated and experimental data. The accuracy of predicted retention times shows that the proposed approach is simple, fast, and accurate for retention time transfer and prediction between gas chromatography columns. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  1. Unilateral Prostate Cancer Cannot be Accurately Predicted in Low-Risk Patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isbarn, Hendrik; Karakiewicz, Pierre I.; Vogel, Susanne

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: Hemiablative therapy (HAT) is increasing in popularity for treatment of patients with low-risk prostate cancer (PCa). The validity of this therapeutic modality, which exclusively treats PCa within a single prostate lobe, rests on accurate staging. We tested the accuracy of unilaterally unremarkable biopsy findings in cases of low-risk PCa patients who are potential candidates for HAT. Methods and Materials: The study population consisted of 243 men with clinical stage ≤T2a, a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration of <10 ng/ml, a biopsy-proven Gleason sum of ≤6, and a maximum of 2 ipsilateral positive biopsy results out of 10 or more cores. All men underwent a radical prostatectomy, and pathology stage was used as the gold standard. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were tested for significant predictors of unilateral, organ-confined PCa. These predictors consisted of PSA, %fPSA (defined as the quotient of free [uncomplexed] PSA divided by the total PSA), clinical stage (T2a vs. T1c), gland volume, and number of positive biopsy cores (2 vs. 1). Results: Despite unilateral stage at biopsy, bilateral or even non-organ-confined PCa was reported in 64% of all patients. In multivariable analyses, no variable could clearly and independently predict the presence of unilateral PCa. This was reflected in an overall accuracy of 58% (95% confidence interval, 50.6-65.8%). Conclusions: Two-thirds of patients with unilateral low-risk PCa, confirmed by clinical stage and biopsy findings, have bilateral or non-organ-confined PCa at radical prostatectomy. This alarming finding questions the safety and validity of HAT.

  2. Spherical near-field antenna measurements — The most accurate antenna measurement technique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinbjerg, Olav

    2016-01-01

    The spherical near-field antenna measurement technique combines several advantages and generally constitutes the most accurate technique for experimental characterization of radiation from antennas. This paper/presentation discusses these advantages, briefly reviews the early history and present...

  3. Accurate prediction of stability changes in protein mutants by combining machine learning with structure based computational mutagenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masso, Majid; Vaisman, Iosif I

    2008-09-15

    Accurate predictive models for the impact of single amino acid substitutions on protein stability provide insight into protein structure and function. Such models are also valuable for the design and engineering of new proteins. Previously described methods have utilized properties of protein sequence or structure to predict the free energy change of mutants due to thermal (DeltaDeltaG) and denaturant (DeltaDeltaG(H2O)) denaturations, as well as mutant thermal stability (DeltaT(m)), through the application of either computational energy-based approaches or machine learning techniques. However, accuracy associated with applying these methods separately is frequently far from optimal. We detail a computational mutagenesis technique based on a four-body, knowledge-based, statistical contact potential. For any mutation due to a single amino acid replacement in a protein, the method provides an empirical normalized measure of the ensuing environmental perturbation occurring at every residue position. A feature vector is generated for the mutant by considering perturbations at the mutated position and it's ordered six nearest neighbors in the 3-dimensional (3D) protein structure. These predictors of stability change are evaluated by applying machine learning tools to large training sets of mutants derived from diverse proteins that have been experimentally studied and described. Predictive models based on our combined approach are either comparable to, or in many cases significantly outperform, previously published results. A web server with supporting documentation is available at http://proteins.gmu.edu/automute.

  4. Combining Mean and Standard Deviation of Hounsfield Unit Measurements from Preoperative CT Allows More Accurate Prediction of Urinary Stone Composition Than Mean Hounsfield Units Alone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tailly, Thomas; Larish, Yaniv; Nadeau, Brandon; Violette, Philippe; Glickman, Leonard; Olvera-Posada, Daniel; Alenezi, Husain; Amann, Justin; Denstedt, John; Razvi, Hassan

    2016-04-01

    The mineral composition of a urinary stone may influence its surgical and medical treatment. Previous attempts at identifying stone composition based on mean Hounsfield Units (HUm) have had varied success. We aimed to evaluate the additional use of standard deviation of HU (HUsd) to more accurately predict stone composition. We identified patients from two centers who had undergone urinary stone treatment between 2006 and 2013 and had mineral stone analysis and a computed tomography (CT) available. HUm and HUsd of the stones were compared with ANOVA. Receiver operative characteristic analysis with area under the curve (AUC), Youden index, and likelihood ratio calculations were performed. Data were available for 466 patients. The major components were calcium oxalate monohydrate (COM), uric acid, hydroxyapatite, struvite, brushite, cystine, and CO dihydrate (COD) in 41.4%, 19.3%, 12.4%, 7.5%, 5.8%, 5.4%, and 4.7% of patients, respectively. The HUm of UA and Br was significantly lower and higher than the HUm of any other stone type, respectively. HUm and HUsd were most accurate in predicting uric acid with an AUC of 0.969 and 0.851, respectively. The combined use of HUm and HUsd resulted in increased positive predictive value and higher likelihood ratios for identifying a stone's mineral composition for all stone types but COM. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of CT data aiding in the prediction of brushite stone composition. Both HUm and HUsd can help predict stone composition and their combined use results in higher likelihood ratios influencing probability.

  5. Dynamics of Flexible MLI-type Debris for Accurate Orbit Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    debris for accurate propagation under perturbations”, in Proceedings of 65th International Astronautical Congress (IAC 2014), Toronto, Canada , 2014...Surveillance Network ( SSN ) was able to detect more than 900 pieces of debris that were at risk to damage operational spacecraft. In February 10, 2009...created two large debris clouds and the SSN reported that 382 pieces of debris from Iridium 33 and 893 pieces from Cosmos 2251 were created, and

  6. An Accurate GPS-IMU/DR Data Fusion Method for Driverless Car Based on a Set of Predictive Models and Grid Constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shiyao; Deng, Zhidong; Yin, Gang

    2016-02-24

    A high-performance differential global positioning system (GPS)  receiver with real time kinematics provides absolute localization for driverless cars. However, it is not only susceptible to multipath effect but also unable to effectively fulfill precise error correction in a wide range of driving areas. This paper proposes an accurate GPS-inertial measurement unit (IMU)/dead reckoning (DR) data fusion method based on a set of predictive models and occupancy grid constraints. First, we employ a set of autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) equations that have different structural parameters to build maximum likelihood models of raw navigation. Second, both grid constraints and spatial consensus checks on all predictive results and current measurements are required to have removal of outliers. Navigation data that satisfy stationary stochastic process are further fused to achieve accurate localization results. Third, the standard deviation of multimodal data fusion can be pre-specified by grid size. Finally, we perform a lot of field tests on a diversity of real urban scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the method can significantly smooth small jumps in bias and considerably reduce accumulated position errors due to DR. With low computational complexity, the position accuracy of our method surpasses existing state-of-the-arts on the same dataset and the new data fusion method is practically applied in our driverless car.

  7. An Accurate GPS-IMU/DR Data Fusion Method for Driverless Car Based on a Set of Predictive Models and Grid Constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiyao Wang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available A high-performance differential global positioning system (GPS  receiver with real time kinematics provides absolute localization for driverless cars. However, it is not only susceptible to multipath effect but also unable to effectively fulfill precise error correction in a wide range of driving areas. This paper proposes an accurate GPS–inertial measurement unit (IMU/dead reckoning (DR data fusion method based on a set of predictive models and occupancy grid constraints. First, we employ a set of autoregressive and moving average (ARMA equations that have different structural parameters to build maximum likelihood models of raw navigation. Second, both grid constraints and spatial consensus checks on all predictive results and current measurements are required to have removal of outliers. Navigation data that satisfy stationary stochastic process are further fused to achieve accurate localization results. Third, the standard deviation of multimodal data fusion can be pre-specified by grid size. Finally, we perform a lot of field tests on a diversity of real urban scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the method can significantly smooth small jumps in bias and considerably reduce accumulated position errors due to DR. With low computational complexity, the position accuracy of our method surpasses existing state-of-the-arts on the same dataset and the new data fusion method is practically applied in our driverless car.

  8. Validity of Combining History Elements and Physical Examination Tests to Diagnose Patellofemoral Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Décary, Simon; Frémont, Pierre; Pelletier, Bruno; Fallaha, Michel; Belzile, Sylvain; Martel-Pelletier, Johanne; Pelletier, Jean-Pierre; Feldman, Debbie; Sylvestre, Marie-Pierre; Vendittoli, Pascal-André; Desmeules, François

    2018-04-01

    To assess the validity of diagnostic clusters combining history elements and physical examination tests to diagnose or exclude patellofemoral pain (PFP). Prospective diagnostic study. Orthopedic outpatient clinics, family medicine clinics, and community-dwelling. Consecutive patients (N=279) consulting one of the participating orthopedic surgeons (n=3) or sport medicine physicians (n=2) for any knee complaint. Not applicable. History elements and physical examination tests were obtained by a trained physiotherapist blinded to the reference standard: a composite diagnosis including both physical examination tests and imaging results interpretation performed by an expert physician. Penalized logistic regression (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) was used to identify history elements and physical examination tests associated with the diagnosis of PFP, and recursive partitioning was used to develop diagnostic clusters. Diagnostic accuracy measures including sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratios with associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Two hundred seventy-nine participants were evaluated, and 75 had a diagnosis of PFP (26.9%). Different combinations of history elements and physical examination tests including the age of participants, knee pain location, difficulty descending stairs, patellar facet palpation, and passive knee extension range of motion were associated with a diagnosis of PFP and used in clusters to accurately discriminate between individuals with PFP and individuals without PFP. Two diagnostic clusters developed to confirm the presence of PFP yielded a positive likelihood ratio of 8.7 (95% CI, 5.2-14.6) and 3 clusters to exclude PFP yielded a negative likelihood ratio of .12 (95% CI, .06-.27). Diagnostic clusters combining common history elements and physical examination tests that can accurately diagnose or exclude PFP compared to various knee

  9. How accurate is anatomic limb alignment in predicting mechanical limb alignment after total knee arthroplasty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seung Ah; Choi, Sang-Hee; Chang, Moon Jong

    2015-10-27

    Anatomic limb alignment often differs from mechanical limb alignment after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). We sought to assess the accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity for each of three commonly used ranges for anatomic limb alignment (3-9°, 5-10° and 2-10°) in predicting an acceptable range (neutral ± 3°) for mechanical limb alignment after TKA. We also assessed whether the accuracy of anatomic limb alignment was affected by anatomic variation. This retrospective study included 314 primary TKAs. The alignment of the limb was measured with both anatomic and mechanical methods of measurement. We also measured anatomic variation, including the femoral bowing angle, tibial bowing angle, and neck-shaft angle of the femur. All angles were measured on the same full-length standing anteroposterior radiographs. The accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity for each range of anatomic limb alignment were calculated and compared using mechanical limb alignment as the reference standard. The associations between the accuracy of anatomic limb alignment and anatomic variation were also determined. The range of 2-10° for anatomic limb alignment showed the highest accuracy, but it was only 73 % (3-9°, 65 %; 5-10°, 67 %). The specificity of the 2-10° range was 81 %, which was higher than that of the other ranges (3-9°, 69 %; 5-10°, 67 %). However, the sensitivity of the 2-10° range to predict varus malalignment was only 16 % (3-9°, 35 %; 5-10°, 68 %). In addition, the sensitivity of the 2-10° range to predict valgus malalignment was only 43 % (3-9°, 71 %; 5-10°, 43 %). The accuracy of anatomical limb alignment was lower for knees with greater femoral (odds ratio = 1.2) and tibial (odds ratio = 1.2) bowing. Anatomic limb alignment did not accurately predict mechanical limb alignment after TKA, and its accuracy was affected by anatomic variation. Thus, alignment after TKA should be assessed by measuring mechanical alignment rather than anatomic

  10. Predicting poverty and wealth from mobile phone metadata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumenstock, Joshua; Cadamuro, Gabriel; On, Robert

    2015-11-27

    Accurate and timely estimates of population characteristics are a critical input to social and economic research and policy. In industrialized economies, novel sources of data are enabling new approaches to demographic profiling, but in developing countries, fewer sources of big data exist. We show that an individual's past history of mobile phone use can be used to infer his or her socioeconomic status. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the predicted attributes of millions of individuals can, in turn, accurately reconstruct the distribution of wealth of an entire nation or to infer the asset distribution of microregions composed of just a few households. In resource-constrained environments where censuses and household surveys are rare, this approach creates an option for gathering localized and timely information at a fraction of the cost of traditional methods. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  11. Stress history of the Tharsis Region, Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Robert A.

    1987-01-01

    The Tharsis topographic rise of Mars is roughly 5000 km wide and 10 km high and is believed to have originated more than 3.5 BY ago. Within its boundaries lie the four largest volcanoes on the planet. It is also the locus of a series of fracture traces which extend over approximately a hemisphere. The events leading to the formation of the Tharsis region continue to generate debate. Three geophysical models of the formation of Tharsis are now in general contention and each of these models has been used to predict a characteristic stress-field. These models are: the volcanic construct model, the isostatic compensation model, and the lithospheric uplift model. Each has been used by its proponents to predict some of the features observed in the Tharsis region but none accurately accounts for all of the fracture features observed. This is due, in part, to the use of fractures too young to be directly related to the origin of Tharsis. To constrain the origin of Tharsis, as opposed to its later history, one should look for the oldest fractures related to Tharsis and compare these to the predictions made by the models. Mapping of old terrains in and around the Tharsis rise has revealed 175 hitherto unknown old fracture features.

  12. Stress history of the Tharsis Region, Mars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francis, R.A.

    1987-01-01

    The Tharsis topographic rise of Mars is roughly 5000 km wide and 10 km high and is believed to have originated more than 3.5 BY ago. Within its boundaries lie the four largest volcanoes on the planet. It is also the locus of a series of fracture traces which extend over approximately a hemisphere. The events leading to the formation of the Tharsis region continue to generate debate. Three geophysical models of the formation of Tharsis are now in general contention and each of these models has been used to predict a characteristic stress-field. These models are: the volcanic construct model, the isostatic compensation model, and the lithospheric uplift model. Each has been used by its proponents to predict some of the features observed in the Tharsis region but none accurately accounts for all of the fracture features observed. This is due, in part, to the use of fractures too young to be directly related to the origin of Tharsis. To constrain the origin of Tharsis, as opposed to its later history, one should look for the oldest fractures related to Tharsis and compare these to the predictions made by the models. Mapping of old terrains in and around the Tharsis rise has revealed 175 hitherto unknown old fracture features

  13. Early follow-up data from seizure diaries can be used to predict subsequent seizures in same cohort by borrowing strength across participants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Charles B.; Lipton, Richard B.; Tennen, Howard; Haut, Sheryl R.

    2014-01-01

    Accurate prediction of seizures in persons with epilepsy offers opportunities for both precautionary measures and preemptive treatment. Previously identified predictors of seizures include patient-reported seizure anticipation, as well as stress, anxiety, and decreased sleep. In this study, we developed three models using 30 days of nightly seizure diary data in a cohort of 71 individuals with a history of uncontrolled seizures to predict subsequent seizures in the same cohort over a 30-day follow-up period. The best model combined the individual’s seizure history with that of the remainder of the cohort, resulting in 72% sensitivity for 80% specificity, and 0.83 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The possibility of clinically relevant prediction should be examined through electronic data capture and more specific and more frequent sampling, and with patient training to improve prediction. PMID:19138755

  14. Genomic inference accurately predicts the timing and severity of a recent bottleneck in a non-model insect population

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Rajiv C.; Garud, Nandita R.; Kelley, Joanna L.; Boggs, Carol L.; Petrov, Dmitri A.

    2015-01-01

    The analysis of molecular data from natural populations has allowed researchers to answer diverse ecological questions that were previously intractable. In particular, ecologists are often interested in the demographic history of populations, information that is rarely available from historical records. Methods have been developed to infer demographic parameters from genomic data, but it is not well understood how inferred parameters compare to true population history or depend on aspects of experimental design. Here we present and evaluate a method of SNP discovery using RNA-sequencing and demographic inference using the program δaδi, which uses a diffusion approximation to the allele frequency spectrum to fit demographic models. We test these methods in a population of the checkerspot butterfly Euphydryas gillettii. This population was intentionally introduced to Gothic, Colorado in 1977 and has since experienced extreme fluctuations including bottlenecks of fewer than 25 adults, as documented by nearly annual field surveys. Using RNA-sequencing of eight individuals from Colorado and eight individuals from a native population in Wyoming, we generate the first genomic resources for this system. While demographic inference is commonly used to examine ancient demography, our study demonstrates that our inexpensive, all-in-one approach to marker discovery and genotyping provides sufficient data to accurately infer the timing of a recent bottleneck. This demographic scenario is relevant for many species of conservation concern, few of which have sequenced genomes. Our results are remarkably insensitive to sample size or number of genomic markers, which has important implications for applying this method to other non-model systems. PMID:24237665

  15. Interrupting History: Rethinking History Curriculum after "The End of History". Counterpoints: Studies in the Postmodern Theory of Education. Volume 404

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkes, Robert John

    2011-01-01

    Since the emergence of postmodern social theory, history has been haunted by predictions of its imminent end. Postmodernism has been accused of making historical research and writing untenable, encouraging the proliferation of revisionist histories, providing fertile ground for historical denial, and promoting the adoption of a mournful view of…

  16. Preschool Speech Error Patterns Predict Articulation and Phonological Awareness Outcomes in Children with Histories of Speech Sound Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preston, Jonathan L.; Hull, Margaret; Edwards, Mary Louise

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To determine if speech error patterns in preschoolers with speech sound disorders (SSDs) predict articulation and phonological awareness (PA) outcomes almost 4 years later. Method: Twenty-five children with histories of preschool SSDs (and normal receptive language) were tested at an average age of 4;6 (years;months) and were followed up…

  17. Accurate thermoelastic tensor and acoustic velocities of NaCl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marcondes, Michel L., E-mail: michel@if.usp.br [Physics Institute, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, 05508-090 (Brazil); Chemical Engineering and Material Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States); Shukla, Gaurav, E-mail: shukla@physics.umn.edu [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States); Minnesota supercomputer Institute, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States); Silveira, Pedro da [Chemical Engineering and Material Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States); Wentzcovitch, Renata M., E-mail: wentz002@umn.edu [Chemical Engineering and Material Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States); Minnesota supercomputer Institute, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States)

    2015-12-15

    Despite the importance of thermoelastic properties of minerals in geology and geophysics, their measurement at high pressures and temperatures are still challenging. Thus, ab initio calculations are an essential tool for predicting these properties at extreme conditions. Owing to the approximate description of the exchange-correlation energy, approximations used in calculations of vibrational effects, and numerical/methodological approximations, these methods produce systematic deviations. Hybrid schemes combining experimental data and theoretical results have emerged as a way to reconcile available information and offer more reliable predictions at experimentally inaccessible thermodynamics conditions. Here we introduce a method to improve the calculated thermoelastic tensor by using highly accurate thermal equation of state (EoS). The corrective scheme is general, applicable to crystalline solids with any symmetry, and can produce accurate results at conditions where experimental data may not exist. We apply it to rock-salt-type NaCl, a material whose structural properties have been challenging to describe accurately by standard ab initio methods and whose acoustic/seismic properties are important for the gas and oil industry.

  18. A NEW CLINICAL PREDICTION CRITERION ACCURATELY DETERMINES A SUBSET OF PATIENTS WITH BILATERAL PRIMARY ALDOSTERONISM BEFORE ADRENAL VENOUS SAMPLING.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocjan, Tomaz; Janez, Andrej; Stankovic, Milenko; Vidmar, Gaj; Jensterle, Mojca

    2016-05-01

    Adrenal venous sampling (AVS) is the only available method to distinguish bilateral from unilateral primary aldosteronism (PA). AVS has several drawbacks, so it is reasonable to avoid this procedure when the results would not affect clinical management. Our objective was to identify a clinical criterion that can reliably predict nonlateralized AVS as a surrogate for bilateral PA that is not treated surgically. A retrospective diagnostic cross-sectional study conducted at Slovenian national endocrine referral center included 69 consecutive patients (mean age 56 ± 8 years, 21 females) with PA who underwent AVS. PA was confirmed with the saline infusion test (SIT). AVS was performed sequentially during continuous adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH) infusion. The main outcome measures were variables associated with nonlateralized AVS to derive a clinical prediction rule. Sixty-seven (97%) patients had a successful AVS and were included in the statistical analysis. A total of 39 (58%) patients had nonlateralized AVS. The combined criterion of serum potassium ≥3.5 mmol/L, post-SIT aldosterone AVS. The best overall classification accuracy (50/67 = 75%) was achieved using the post-SIT aldosterone level AVS. Our clinical prediction criterion appears to accurately determine a subset of patients with bilateral PA who could avoid unnecessary AVS and immediately commence with medical treatment.

  19. Learning a Weighted Sequence Model of the Nucleosome Core and Linker Yields More Accurate Predictions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Homo sapiens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Sheila M.; Bilmes, Jeff A.; Noble, William Stafford

    2010-01-01

    DNA in eukaryotes is packaged into a chromatin complex, the most basic element of which is the nucleosome. The precise positioning of the nucleosome cores allows for selective access to the DNA, and the mechanisms that control this positioning are important pieces of the gene expression puzzle. We describe a large-scale nucleosome pattern that jointly characterizes the nucleosome core and the adjacent linkers and is predominantly characterized by long-range oscillations in the mono, di- and tri-nucleotide content of the DNA sequence, and we show that this pattern can be used to predict nucleosome positions in both Homo sapiens and Saccharomyces cerevisiae more accurately than previously published methods. Surprisingly, in both H. sapiens and S. cerevisiae, the most informative individual features are the mono-nucleotide patterns, although the inclusion of di- and tri-nucleotide features results in improved performance. Our approach combines a much longer pattern than has been previously used to predict nucleosome positioning from sequence—301 base pairs, centered at the position to be scored—with a novel discriminative classification approach that selectively weights the contributions from each of the input features. The resulting scores are relatively insensitive to local AT-content and can be used to accurately discriminate putative dyad positions from adjacent linker regions without requiring an additional dynamic programming step and without the attendant edge effects and assumptions about linker length modeling and overall nucleosome density. Our approach produces the best dyad-linker classification results published to date in H. sapiens, and outperforms two recently published models on a large set of S. cerevisiae nucleosome positions. Our results suggest that in both genomes, a comparable and relatively small fraction of nucleosomes are well-positioned and that these positions are predictable based on sequence alone. We believe that the bulk of the

  20. Learning a weighted sequence model of the nucleosome core and linker yields more accurate predictions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Homo sapiens.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheila M Reynolds

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available DNA in eukaryotes is packaged into a chromatin complex, the most basic element of which is the nucleosome. The precise positioning of the nucleosome cores allows for selective access to the DNA, and the mechanisms that control this positioning are important pieces of the gene expression puzzle. We describe a large-scale nucleosome pattern that jointly characterizes the nucleosome core and the adjacent linkers and is predominantly characterized by long-range oscillations in the mono, di- and tri-nucleotide content of the DNA sequence, and we show that this pattern can be used to predict nucleosome positions in both Homo sapiens and Saccharomyces cerevisiae more accurately than previously published methods. Surprisingly, in both H. sapiens and S. cerevisiae, the most informative individual features are the mono-nucleotide patterns, although the inclusion of di- and tri-nucleotide features results in improved performance. Our approach combines a much longer pattern than has been previously used to predict nucleosome positioning from sequence-301 base pairs, centered at the position to be scored-with a novel discriminative classification approach that selectively weights the contributions from each of the input features. The resulting scores are relatively insensitive to local AT-content and can be used to accurately discriminate putative dyad positions from adjacent linker regions without requiring an additional dynamic programming step and without the attendant edge effects and assumptions about linker length modeling and overall nucleosome density. Our approach produces the best dyad-linker classification results published to date in H. sapiens, and outperforms two recently published models on a large set of S. cerevisiae nucleosome positions. Our results suggest that in both genomes, a comparable and relatively small fraction of nucleosomes are well-positioned and that these positions are predictable based on sequence alone. We believe that the

  1. Learning a weighted sequence model of the nucleosome core and linker yields more accurate predictions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Homo sapiens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Sheila M; Bilmes, Jeff A; Noble, William Stafford

    2010-07-08

    DNA in eukaryotes is packaged into a chromatin complex, the most basic element of which is the nucleosome. The precise positioning of the nucleosome cores allows for selective access to the DNA, and the mechanisms that control this positioning are important pieces of the gene expression puzzle. We describe a large-scale nucleosome pattern that jointly characterizes the nucleosome core and the adjacent linkers and is predominantly characterized by long-range oscillations in the mono, di- and tri-nucleotide content of the DNA sequence, and we show that this pattern can be used to predict nucleosome positions in both Homo sapiens and Saccharomyces cerevisiae more accurately than previously published methods. Surprisingly, in both H. sapiens and S. cerevisiae, the most informative individual features are the mono-nucleotide patterns, although the inclusion of di- and tri-nucleotide features results in improved performance. Our approach combines a much longer pattern than has been previously used to predict nucleosome positioning from sequence-301 base pairs, centered at the position to be scored-with a novel discriminative classification approach that selectively weights the contributions from each of the input features. The resulting scores are relatively insensitive to local AT-content and can be used to accurately discriminate putative dyad positions from adjacent linker regions without requiring an additional dynamic programming step and without the attendant edge effects and assumptions about linker length modeling and overall nucleosome density. Our approach produces the best dyad-linker classification results published to date in H. sapiens, and outperforms two recently published models on a large set of S. cerevisiae nucleosome positions. Our results suggest that in both genomes, a comparable and relatively small fraction of nucleosomes are well-positioned and that these positions are predictable based on sequence alone. We believe that the bulk of the

  2. A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, Alexandre; Navarro, Jorge [Wind Energy, Division of Renewable Energies, Department of Energy, CIEMAT, Av. Complutense, 22, Ed. 42, 28044 Madrid (Spain); Crespo, Antonio [Laboratorio de Mecanica de Fluidos, Departmento de Ingenieria Energetica y Fluidomecanica, ETSII, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, C/Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2-28006 Madrid (Spain); Lizcano, Gil [Oxford University Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling - IMM, Technical University of Denmark, Richard Petersens Plads, Building 321, Office 019, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Feitosa, Everaldo [Brazilian Wind Energy Centre - CBEE, Centro de Tecnologia e Geociencias, UFPE-50.740-530 Recife, PE (Brazil)

    2008-08-15

    This paper makes a brief review on 30 years of history of the wind power short-term prediction, since the first ideas and sketches on the theme to the actual state of the art on models and tools, giving emphasis to the most significant proposals and developments. The two principal lines of thought on short-term prediction (mathematical and physical) are indistinctly treated here and comparisons between models and tools are avoided, mainly because, on the one hand, a standard for a measure of performance is still not adopted and, on the other hand, it is very important that the data are exactly the same in order to compare two models (this fact makes it almost impossible to carry out a quantitative comparison between a huge number of models and methods). In place of a quantitative description, a qualitative approach is preferred for this review, remarking the contribution (and innovative aspect) of each model. On the basis of the review, some topics for future research are pointed out. (author)

  3. Cluster abundance in chameleon f ( R ) gravity I: toward an accurate halo mass function prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cataneo, Matteo; Rapetti, David [Dark Cosmology Centre, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen (Denmark); Lombriser, Lucas [Institute for Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, Royal Observatory, Blackford Hill, Edinburgh, EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom); Li, Baojiu, E-mail: matteoc@dark-cosmology.dk, E-mail: drapetti@dark-cosmology.dk, E-mail: llo@roe.ac.uk, E-mail: baojiu.li@durham.ac.uk [Institute for Computational Cosmology, Department of Physics, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom)

    2016-12-01

    We refine the mass and environment dependent spherical collapse model of chameleon f ( R ) gravity by calibrating a phenomenological correction inspired by the parameterized post-Friedmann framework against high-resolution N -body simulations. We employ our method to predict the corresponding modified halo mass function, and provide fitting formulas to calculate the enhancement of the f ( R ) halo abundance with respect to that of General Relativity (GR) within a precision of ∼< 5% from the results obtained in the simulations. Similar accuracy can be achieved for the full f ( R ) mass function on the condition that the modeling of the reference GR abundance of halos is accurate at the percent level. We use our fits to forecast constraints on the additional scalar degree of freedom of the theory, finding that upper bounds competitive with current Solar System tests are within reach of cluster number count analyses from ongoing and upcoming surveys at much larger scales. Importantly, the flexibility of our method allows also for this to be applied to other scalar-tensor theories characterized by a mass and environment dependent spherical collapse.

  4. Prediction of hearing loss among the noise-exposed workers in a steel factory using artificial intelligence approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aliabadi, Mohsen; Farhadian, Maryam; Darvishi, Ebrahim

    2015-08-01

    Prediction of hearing loss in noisy workplaces is considered to be an important aspect of hearing conservation program. Artificial intelligence, as a new approach, can be used to predict the complex phenomenon such as hearing loss. Using artificial neural networks, this study aims to present an empirical model for the prediction of the hearing loss threshold among noise-exposed workers. Two hundred and ten workers employed in a steel factory were chosen, and their occupational exposure histories were collected. To determine the hearing loss threshold, the audiometric test was carried out using a calibrated audiometer. The personal noise exposure was also measured using a noise dosimeter in the workstations of workers. Finally, data obtained five variables, which can influence the hearing loss, were used for the development of the prediction model. Multilayer feed-forward neural networks with different structures were developed using MATLAB software. Neural network structures had one hidden layer with the number of neurons being approximately between 5 and 15 neurons. The best developed neural networks with one hidden layer and ten neurons could accurately predict the hearing loss threshold with RMSE = 2.6 dB and R(2) = 0.89. The results also confirmed that neural networks could provide more accurate predictions than multiple regressions. Since occupational hearing loss is frequently non-curable, results of accurate prediction can be used by occupational health experts to modify and improve noise exposure conditions.

  5. Does a history of bullying and abuse predict lower urinary tract symptoms, chronic pain, and sexual dysfunction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nault, Tori; Gupta, Priyanka; Ehlert, Michael; Dove-Medows, Emily; Seltzer, Marlene; Carrico, Donna J; Gilleran, Jason; Bartley, Jamie; Peters, Kenneth M; Sirls, Larry

    2016-11-01

    To investigate associations of bullying and abuse with pelvic floor symptoms, urogenital pain, and sexual health characteristics of women presenting to a multidisciplinary women's urology center. Retrospective review of a prospective database. Patients completed questions about bullying, abuse, sexual health and validated questionnaires including the Pelvic Floor Dysfunction Inventory (PFDI-20), Overactive Bladder Questionnaire (OAB-q), and visual analog scale (VAS 0-10) for genitourinary pain. Statistical analyses included Chi-squared and t tests, which compared victims of bullying and/or abuse to non-victims. Three hundred and eighty patients were reviewed. Three hundred and thirty-eight had data on bullying and abuse history. Out of 380, 94 (24.7 %) reported that they were victims of bullying. Out of 380, 104 (27.4 %) reported that they were victims of abuse. Women with a history of bullying and abuse had increased overall pain scores compared to those without a history of either. Women with a history of abuse and bullying had increased PFDI-20, POPDI, and UDI-6 scores compared to women who were not bullied or abused. There was no difference in being sexually active or in sexual satisfaction between the groups. Patients with a history of abuse and bullying had the greatest percentage of dyspareunia (p = 0.009). Women with a history of bullying, abuse, or both predict increased pelvic floor distress, urological symptoms, increased urogenital pain, and increased dyspareunia. Clinicians should screen for exposure to bullying or abuse in order to provide comprehensive resources to address these psychosocial issues.

  6. Statistics of particle time-temperature histories.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hewson, John C.; Lignell, David O.; Sun, Guangyuan

    2014-10-01

    Particles in non - isothermal turbulent flow are subject to a stochastic environment tha t produces a distribution of particle time - temperature histories. This distribution is a function of the dispersion of the non - isothermal (continuous) gas phase and the distribution of particles relative to that gas phase. In this work we extend the one - dimensional turbulence (ODT) model to predict the joint dispersion of a dispersed particle phase and a continuous phase. The ODT model predicts the turbulent evolution of continuous scalar fields with a model for the cascade of fluctuations to smaller sc ales (the 'triplet map') at a rate that is a function of the fully resolved one - dimens ional velocity field . Stochastic triplet maps also drive Lagrangian particle dispersion with finite Stokes number s including inertial and eddy trajectory - crossing effect s included. Two distinct approaches to this coupling between triplet maps and particle dispersion are developed and implemented along with a hybrid approach. An 'instantaneous' particle displacement model matches the tracer particle limit and provide s an accurate description of particle dispersion. A 'continuous' particle displacement m odel translates triplet maps into a continuous velocity field to which particles respond. Particles can alter the turbulence, and modifications to the stochastic rate expr ession are developed for two - way coupling between particles and the continuous phase. Each aspect of model development is evaluated in canonical flows (homogeneous turbulence, free - shear flows and wall - bounded flows) for which quality measurements are ava ilable. ODT simulations of non - isothermal flows provide statistics for particle heating. These simulations show the significance of accurately predicting the joint statistics of particle and fluid dispersion . Inhomogeneous turbulence coupled with the in fluence of the mean flow fields on particles of varying properties

  7. Fast and Accurate Prediction of Numerical Relativity Waveforms from Binary Black Hole Coalescences Using Surrogate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott E; Galley, Chad R; Szilágyi, Béla; Scheel, Mark A; Tiglio, Manuel; Hemberger, Daniel A

    2015-09-18

    Simulating a binary black hole coalescence by solving Einstein's equations is computationally expensive, requiring days to months of supercomputing time. Using reduced order modeling techniques, we construct an accurate surrogate model, which is evaluated in a millisecond to a second, for numerical relativity (NR) waveforms from nonspinning binary black hole coalescences with mass ratios in [1, 10] and durations corresponding to about 15 orbits before merger. We assess the model's uncertainty and show that our modeling strategy predicts NR waveforms not used for the surrogate's training with errors nearly as small as the numerical error of the NR code. Our model includes all spherical-harmonic _{-2}Y_{ℓm} waveform modes resolved by the NR code up to ℓ=8. We compare our surrogate model to effective one body waveforms from 50M_{⊙} to 300M_{⊙} for advanced LIGO detectors and find that the surrogate is always more faithful (by at least an order of magnitude in most cases).

  8. Accurate prediction of complex free surface flow around a high speed craft using a single-phase level set method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broglia, Riccardo; Durante, Danilo

    2017-11-01

    This paper focuses on the analysis of a challenging free surface flow problem involving a surface vessel moving at high speeds, or planing. The investigation is performed using a general purpose high Reynolds free surface solver developed at CNR-INSEAN. The methodology is based on a second order finite volume discretization of the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations (Di Mascio et al. in A second order Godunov—type scheme for naval hydrodynamics, Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 253-261, 2001; Proceedings of 16th international offshore and polar engineering conference, San Francisco, CA, USA, 2006; J Mar Sci Technol 14:19-29, 2009); air/water interface dynamics is accurately modeled by a non standard level set approach (Di Mascio et al. in Comput Fluids 36(5):868-886, 2007a), known as the single-phase level set method. In this algorithm the governing equations are solved only in the water phase, whereas the numerical domain in the air phase is used for a suitable extension of the fluid dynamic variables. The level set function is used to track the free surface evolution; dynamic boundary conditions are enforced directly on the interface. This approach allows to accurately predict the evolution of the free surface even in the presence of violent breaking waves phenomena, maintaining the interface sharp, without any need to smear out the fluid properties across the two phases. This paper is aimed at the prediction of the complex free-surface flow field generated by a deep-V planing boat at medium and high Froude numbers (from 0.6 up to 1.2). In the present work, the planing hull is treated as a two-degree-of-freedom rigid object. Flow field is characterized by the presence of thin water sheets, several energetic breaking waves and plungings. The computational results include convergence of the trim angle, sinkage and resistance under grid refinement; high-quality experimental data are used for the purposes of validation, allowing to

  9. Interrelationship between family history of alcoholism and generational status in the prediction of alcohol dependence in US Hispanics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chartier, K G; Thomas, N S; Kendler, K S

    2017-01-01

    Both a family history of alcoholism and migration-related factors like US v. foreign nativity increase the risk for developing alcohol use disorders in Hispanic Americans. For this study, we integrated these two lines of research to test whether the relationship between familial alcoholism and alcohol dependence changes with successive generations in the United States. Data were from the waves 1 and 2 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Subjects self-identified Hispanic ethnicity (N = 4122; n = 1784 first, n = 1169 second, and n = 1169 third or later generation) and reported ever consuming ⩾12 drinks in a 1-year period. A family history of alcoholism was assessed in first- and second-degree relatives. Analyses predicting the number of alcohol dependence symptoms were path models. Alcohol dependence symptoms were associated with a stronger family history of alcoholism and later generational status. There was a significant interaction effect between familial alcoholism and generational status; the relationship of familial alcoholism with alcohol dependence symptoms increased significantly with successive generations in the United States, more strongly in women than men. Acculturation partially mediated the interaction effect between familial alcoholism and generational status on alcohol dependence, although not in the expected direction. Familial alcoholism interacted with generational status in predicting alcohol dependence symptoms in US Hispanic drinkers. This relationship suggests that heritability for alcoholism is influenced by a higher-order environmental factor, likely characterized by a relaxing of social restrictions on drinking.

  10. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio predicting suicide risk in euthymic patients with bipolar disorder: Moderatory effect of family history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivković, Maja; Pantović-Stefanović, Maja; Dunjić-Kostić, Bojana; Jurišić, Vladimir; Lačković, Maja; Totić-Poznanović, Sanja; Jovanović, Aleksandar A; Damjanović, Aleksandar

    2016-04-01

    Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been independently related to bipolar disorder (BD) and factors associated with suicidal risk. The aim of our study was to explore the relationship between NLR and suicide risk in euthymic BD patients. We also sought to propose a model of interaction between NLR and stress-diathesis factors, leading to suicidal risk in BD. The study group consisted of 83 patients diagnosed with BD (36 suicide attempters; 47 suicide non-attempters), compared to the healthy control group (n=73) and matched according to age, gender, and body mass index (BMI). NLR was measured according to the complete blood count. Mood symptoms have been assessed by Young Mania Rating Scale and Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale. Early trauma and acute stress were evaluated by Early Trauma Inventory Self Report-Short Form and List of Threatening Experiences Questionnaire, respectively. Suicide risk has been assessed by Suicide Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised (SBQ-R). Significant correlation was found between NLR and SBQ-R score. The main effects of suicide attempts on NLR, after covarying for confounders, were observed, indicating increased NLR in BD suicide attempters compared to healthy controls. We found significant moderatory effects of family history on NLR relationship to suicidal risk, with NLR being significant positive predictor of suicidal risk only in the patients with positive family history of suicide attempts. The results suggest an enhancing effect of positive family history of suicide attempts on predictive effect of NLR on suicide risk. Our data support the idea that immune markers can predict suicide attempt risk in BD, but only in the subpopulation of BD patients with family history of suicide attempts. This could lead to prevention in suicide behavior in the patient population at particular risk of suicide. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Chimpanzee choice rates in competitive games match equilibrium game theory predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Christopher Flynn; Bhui, Rahul; Bossaerts, Peter; Matsuzawa, Tetsuro; Camerer, Colin

    2014-06-05

    The capacity for strategic thinking about the payoff-relevant actions of conspecifics is not well understood across species. We use game theory to make predictions about choices and temporal dynamics in three abstract competitive situations with chimpanzee participants. Frequencies of chimpanzee choices are extremely close to equilibrium (accurate-guessing) predictions, and shift as payoffs change, just as equilibrium theory predicts. The chimpanzee choices are also closer to the equilibrium prediction, and more responsive to past history and payoff changes, than two samples of human choices from experiments in which humans were also initially uninformed about opponent payoffs and could not communicate verbally. The results are consistent with a tentative interpretation of game theory as explaining evolved behavior, with the additional hypothesis that chimpanzees may retain or practice a specialized capacity to adjust strategy choice during competition to perform at least as well as, or better than, humans have.

  12. Damage Level Prediction of Reinforced Concrete Building Based on Earthquake Time History Using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suryanita Reni

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The strong motion earthquake could cause the building damage in case of the building not considered in the earthquake design of the building. The study aims to predict the damage-level of building due to earthquake using Artificial Neural Networks method. The building model is a reinforced concrete building with ten floors and height between floors is 3.6 m. The model building received a load of the earthquake based on nine earthquake time history records. Each time history scaled to 0,5g, 0,75g, and 1,0g. The Artificial Neural Networks are designed in 4 architectural models using the MATLAB program. Model 1 used the displacement, velocity, and acceleration as input and Model 2 used the displacement only as the input. Model 3 used the velocity as input, and Model 4 used the acceleration just as input. The output of the Neural Networks is the damage level of the building with the category of Safe (1, Immediate Occupancy (2, Life Safety (3 or in a condition of Collapse Prevention (4. According to the results, Neural Network models have the prediction rate of the damage level between 85%-95%. Therefore, one of the solutions for analyzing the structural responses and the damage level promptly and efficiently when the earthquake occurred is by using Artificial Neural Network

  13. Hounsfield unit density accurately predicts ESWL success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, William J; Tomera, Kevin M; Lance, Raymond S

    2005-01-01

    Extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (ESWL) is a commonly used non-invasive treatment for urolithiasis. Helical CT scans provide much better and detailed imaging of the patient with urolithiasis including the ability to measure density of urinary stones. In this study we tested the hypothesis that density of urinary calculi as measured by CT can predict successful ESWL treatment. 198 patients were treated at Alaska Urological Associates with ESWL between January 2002 and April 2004. Of these 101 met study inclusion with accessible CT scans and stones ranging from 5-15 mm. Follow-up imaging demonstrated stone freedom in 74.2%. The overall mean Houndsfield density value for stone-free compared to residual stone groups were significantly different ( 93.61 vs 122.80 p ESWL for upper tract calculi between 5-15mm.

  14. Respiratory variation in peak aortic velocity accurately predicts fluid responsiveness in children undergoing neurosurgery under general anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morparia, Kavita G; Reddy, Srijaya K; Olivieri, Laura J; Spaeder, Michael C; Schuette, Jennifer J

    2018-04-01

    The determination of fluid responsiveness in the critically ill child is of vital importance, more so as fluid overload becomes increasingly associated with worse outcomes. Dynamic markers of volume responsiveness have shown some promise in the pediatric population, but more research is needed before they can be adopted for widespread use. Our aim was to investigate effectiveness of respiratory variation in peak aortic velocity and pulse pressure variation to predict fluid responsiveness, and determine their optimal cutoff values. We performed a prospective, observational study at a single tertiary care pediatric center. Twenty-one children with normal cardiorespiratory status undergoing general anesthesia for neurosurgery were enrolled. Respiratory variation in peak aortic velocity (ΔVpeak ao) was measured both before and after volume expansion using a bedside ultrasound device. Pulse pressure variation (PPV) value was obtained from the bedside monitor. All patients received a 10 ml/kg fluid bolus as volume expansion, and were qualified as responders if stroke volume increased >15% as a result. Utility of ΔVpeak ao and PPV and to predict responsiveness to volume expansion was investigated. A baseline ΔVpeak ao value of greater than or equal to 12.3% best predicted a positive response to volume expansion, with a sensitivity of 77%, specificity of 89% and area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.90. PPV failed to demonstrate utility in this patient population. Respiratory variation in peak aortic velocity is a promising marker for optimization of perioperative fluid therapy in the pediatric population and can be accurately measured using bedside ultrasonography. More research is needed to evaluate the lack of effectiveness of pulse pressure variation for this purpose.

  15. Non-isothermal kinetics model to predict accurate phase transformation and hardness of 22MnB5 boron steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bok, H.-H.; Kim, S.N.; Suh, D.W. [Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology, POSTECH, San 31, Hyoja-dong, Nam-gu, Pohang, Gyeongsangbuk-do (Korea, Republic of); Barlat, F., E-mail: f.barlat@postech.ac.kr [Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology, POSTECH, San 31, Hyoja-dong, Nam-gu, Pohang, Gyeongsangbuk-do (Korea, Republic of); Lee, M.-G., E-mail: myounglee@korea.ac.kr [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Korea University, Anam-dong, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-02-25

    A non-isothermal phase transformation kinetics model obtained by modifying the well-known JMAK approach is proposed for application to a low carbon boron steel (22MnB5) sheet. In the modified kinetics model, the parameters are functions of both temperature and cooling rate, and can be identified by a numerical optimization method. Moreover, in this approach the transformation start and finish temperatures are variable instead of the constants that depend on chemical composition. These variable reference temperatures are determined from the measured CCT diagram using dilatation experiments. The kinetics model developed in this work captures the complex transformation behavior of the boron steel sheet sample accurately. In particular, the predicted hardness and phase fractions in the specimens subjected to a wide range of cooling rates were validated by experiments.

  16. Constraining proposed combinations of ice history and Earth rheology using VLBI determined baseline length rates in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrovica, J. X.; Davis, J. L.; Shapiro, I. I.

    1993-01-01

    We predict the present-day rates of change of the lengths of 19 North American baselines due to the glacial isostatic adjustment process. Contrary to previously published research, we find that the three dimensional motion of each of the sites defining a baseline, rather than only the radial motions of these sites, needs to be considered to obtain an accurate estimate of the rate of change of the baseline length. Predictions are generated using a suite of Earth models and late Pleistocene ice histories, these include specific combinations of the two which have been proposed in the literature as satisfying a variety of rebound related geophysical observations from the North American region. A number of these published models are shown to predict rates which differ significantly from the VLBI observations.

  17. Accurate density functional prediction of molecular electron affinity with the scaling corrected Kohn–Sham frontier orbital energies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, DaDi; Yang, Xiaolong; Zheng, Xiao; Yang, Weitao

    2018-04-01

    Electron affinity (EA) is the energy released when an additional electron is attached to an atom or a molecule. EA is a fundamental thermochemical property, and it is closely pertinent to other important properties such as electronegativity and hardness. However, accurate prediction of EA is difficult with density functional theory methods. The somewhat large error of the calculated EAs originates mainly from the intrinsic delocalisation error associated with the approximate exchange-correlation functional. In this work, we employ a previously developed non-empirical global scaling correction approach, which explicitly imposes the Perdew-Parr-Levy-Balduz condition to the approximate functional, and achieve a substantially improved accuracy for the calculated EAs. In our approach, the EA is given by the scaling corrected Kohn-Sham lowest unoccupied molecular orbital energy of the neutral molecule, without the need to carry out the self-consistent-field calculation for the anion.

  18. Effect of computational grid on accurate prediction of a wind turbine rotor using delayed detached-eddy simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bangga, Galih; Weihing, Pascal; Lutz, Thorsten; Krämer, Ewald [University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart (Germany)

    2017-05-15

    The present study focuses on the impact of grid for accurate prediction of the MEXICO rotor under stalled conditions. Two different blade mesh topologies, O and C-H meshes, and two different grid resolutions are tested for several time step sizes. The simulations are carried out using Delayed detached-eddy simulation (DDES) with two eddy viscosity RANS turbulence models, namely Spalart- Allmaras (SA) and Menter Shear stress transport (SST) k-ω. A high order spatial discretization, WENO (Weighted essentially non- oscillatory) scheme, is used in these computations. The results are validated against measurement data with regards to the sectional loads and the chordwise pressure distributions. The C-H mesh topology is observed to give the best results employing the SST k-ω turbulence model, but the computational cost is more expensive as the grid contains a wake block that increases the number of cells.

  19. Combining first-principles and data modeling for the accurate prediction of the refractive index of organic polymers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afzal, Mohammad Atif Faiz; Cheng, Chong; Hachmann, Johannes

    2018-06-01

    Organic materials with a high index of refraction (RI) are attracting considerable interest due to their potential application in optic and optoelectronic devices. However, most of these applications require an RI value of 1.7 or larger, while typical carbon-based polymers only exhibit values in the range of 1.3-1.5. This paper introduces an efficient computational protocol for the accurate prediction of RI values in polymers to facilitate in silico studies that can guide the discovery and design of next-generation high-RI materials. Our protocol is based on the Lorentz-Lorenz equation and is parametrized by the polarizability and number density values of a given candidate compound. In the proposed scheme, we compute the former using first-principles electronic structure theory and the latter using an approximation based on van der Waals volumes. The critical parameter in the number density approximation is the packing fraction of the bulk polymer, for which we have devised a machine learning model. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed RI protocol by testing its predictions against the experimentally known RI values of 112 optical polymers. Our approach to combine first-principles and data modeling emerges as both a successful and a highly economical path to determining the RI values for a wide range of organic polymers.

  20. Predicting accurate absolute binding energies in aqueous solution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jan Halborg

    2015-01-01

    Recent predictions of absolute binding free energies of host-guest complexes in aqueous solution using electronic structure theory have been encouraging for some systems, while other systems remain problematic. In this paper I summarize some of the many factors that could easily contribute 1-3 kcal......-represented by continuum models. While I focus on binding free energies in aqueous solution the approach also applies (with minor adjustments) to any free energy difference such as conformational or reaction free energy differences or activation free energies in any solvent....

  1. A rapid and accurate approach for prediction of interactomes from co-elution data (PrInCE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stacey, R Greg; Skinnider, Michael A; Scott, Nichollas E; Foster, Leonard J

    2017-10-23

    An organism's protein interactome, or complete network of protein-protein interactions, defines the protein complexes that drive cellular processes. Techniques for studying protein complexes have traditionally applied targeted strategies such as yeast two-hybrid or affinity purification-mass spectrometry to assess protein interactions. However, given the vast number of protein complexes, more scalable methods are necessary to accelerate interaction discovery and to construct whole interactomes. We recently developed a complementary technique based on the use of protein correlation profiling (PCP) and stable isotope labeling in amino acids in cell culture (SILAC) to assess chromatographic co-elution as evidence of interacting proteins. Importantly, PCP-SILAC is also capable of measuring protein interactions simultaneously under multiple biological conditions, allowing the detection of treatment-specific changes to an interactome. Given the uniqueness and high dimensionality of co-elution data, new tools are needed to compare protein elution profiles, control false discovery rates, and construct an accurate interactome. Here we describe a freely available bioinformatics pipeline, PrInCE, for the analysis of co-elution data. PrInCE is a modular, open-source library that is computationally inexpensive, able to use label and label-free data, and capable of detecting tens of thousands of protein-protein interactions. Using a machine learning approach, PrInCE offers greatly reduced run time, more predicted interactions at the same stringency, prediction of protein complexes, and greater ease of use over previous bioinformatics tools for co-elution data. PrInCE is implemented in Matlab (version R2017a). Source code and standalone executable programs for Windows and Mac OSX are available at https://github.com/fosterlab/PrInCE , where usage instructions can be found. An example dataset and output are also provided for testing purposes. PrInCE is the first fast and easy

  2. Prediction of microstructure, residual stress, and deformation in laser powder bed fusion process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y. P.; Jamshidinia, M.; Boulware, P.; Kelly, S. M.

    2017-12-01

    Laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) process has been investigated significantly to build production parts with a complex shape. Modeling tools, which can be used in a part level, are essential to allow engineers to fine tune the shape design and process parameters for additive manufacturing. This study focuses on developing modeling methods to predict microstructure, hardness, residual stress, and deformation in large L-PBF built parts. A transient sequentially coupled thermal and metallurgical analysis method was developed to predict microstructure and hardness on L-PBF built high-strength, low-alloy steel parts. A moving heat-source model was used in this analysis to accurately predict the temperature history. A kinetics based model which was developed to predict microstructure in the heat-affected zone of a welded joint was extended to predict the microstructure and hardness in an L-PBF build by inputting the predicted temperature history. The tempering effect resulting from the following built layers on the current-layer microstructural phases were modeled, which is the key to predict the final hardness correctly. It was also found that the top layers of a build part have higher hardness because of the lack of the tempering effect. A sequentially coupled thermal and mechanical analysis method was developed to predict residual stress and deformation for an L-PBF build part. It was found that a line-heating model is not suitable for analyzing a large L-PBF built part. The layer heating method is a potential method for analyzing a large L-PBF built part. The experiment was conducted to validate the model predictions.

  3. Prediction of microstructure, residual stress, and deformation in laser powder bed fusion process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y. P.; Jamshidinia, M.; Boulware, P.; Kelly, S. M.

    2018-05-01

    Laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) process has been investigated significantly to build production parts with a complex shape. Modeling tools, which can be used in a part level, are essential to allow engineers to fine tune the shape design and process parameters for additive manufacturing. This study focuses on developing modeling methods to predict microstructure, hardness, residual stress, and deformation in large L-PBF built parts. A transient sequentially coupled thermal and metallurgical analysis method was developed to predict microstructure and hardness on L-PBF built high-strength, low-alloy steel parts. A moving heat-source model was used in this analysis to accurately predict the temperature history. A kinetics based model which was developed to predict microstructure in the heat-affected zone of a welded joint was extended to predict the microstructure and hardness in an L-PBF build by inputting the predicted temperature history. The tempering effect resulting from the following built layers on the current-layer microstructural phases were modeled, which is the key to predict the final hardness correctly. It was also found that the top layers of a build part have higher hardness because of the lack of the tempering effect. A sequentially coupled thermal and mechanical analysis method was developed to predict residual stress and deformation for an L-PBF build part. It was found that a line-heating model is not suitable for analyzing a large L-PBF built part. The layer heating method is a potential method for analyzing a large L-PBF built part. The experiment was conducted to validate the model predictions.

  4. Can Measured Synergy Excitations Accurately Construct Unmeasured Muscle Excitations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianco, Nicholas A; Patten, Carolynn; Fregly, Benjamin J

    2018-01-01

    Accurate prediction of muscle and joint contact forces during human movement could improve treatment planning for disorders such as osteoarthritis, stroke, Parkinson's disease, and cerebral palsy. Recent studies suggest that muscle synergies, a low-dimensional representation of a large set of muscle electromyographic (EMG) signals (henceforth called "muscle excitations"), may reduce the redundancy of muscle excitation solutions predicted by optimization methods. This study explores the feasibility of using muscle synergy information extracted from eight muscle EMG signals (henceforth called "included" muscle excitations) to accurately construct muscle excitations from up to 16 additional EMG signals (henceforth called "excluded" muscle excitations). Using treadmill walking data collected at multiple speeds from two subjects (one healthy, one poststroke), we performed muscle synergy analysis on all possible subsets of eight included muscle excitations and evaluated how well the calculated time-varying synergy excitations could construct the remaining excluded muscle excitations (henceforth called "synergy extrapolation"). We found that some, but not all, eight-muscle subsets yielded synergy excitations that achieved >90% extrapolation variance accounted for (VAF). Using the top 10% of subsets, we developed muscle selection heuristics to identify included muscle combinations whose synergy excitations achieved high extrapolation accuracy. For 3, 4, and 5 synergies, these heuristics yielded extrapolation VAF values approximately 5% lower than corresponding reconstruction VAF values for each associated eight-muscle subset. These results suggest that synergy excitations obtained from experimentally measured muscle excitations can accurately construct unmeasured muscle excitations, which could help limit muscle excitations predicted by muscle force optimizations.

  5. Accurate anisotropic material modelling using only tensile tests for hot and cold forming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abspoel, M.; Scholting, M. E.; Lansbergen, M.; Neelis, B. M.

    2017-09-01

    Accurate material data for simulations require a lot of effort. Advanced yield loci require many different kinds of tests and a Forming Limit Curve (FLC) needs a large amount of samples. Many people use simple material models to reduce the effort of testing, however some models are either not accurate enough (i.e. Hill’48), or do not describe new types of materials (i.e. Keeler). Advanced yield loci describe the anisotropic materials behaviour accurately, but are not widely adopted because of the specialized tests, and data post-processing is a hurdle for many. To overcome these issues, correlations between the advanced yield locus points (biaxial, plane strain and shear) and mechanical properties have been investigated. This resulted in accurate prediction of the advanced stress points using only Rm, Ag and r-values in three directions from which a Vegter yield locus can be constructed with low effort. FLC’s can be predicted with the equations of Abspoel & Scholting depending on total elongation A80, r-value and thickness. Both predictive methods are initially developed for steel, aluminium and stainless steel (BCC and FCC materials). The validity of the predicted Vegter yield locus is investigated with simulation and measurements on both hot and cold formed parts and compared with Hill’48. An adapted specimen geometry, to ensure a homogeneous temperature distribution in the Gleeble hot tensile test, was used to measure the mechanical properties needed to predict a hot Vegter yield locus. Since for hot material, testing of stress states other than uniaxial is really challenging, the prediction for the yield locus adds a lot of value. For the hot FLC an A80 sample with a homogeneous temperature distribution is needed which is due to size limitations not possible in the Gleeble tensile tester. Heating the sample in an industrial type furnace and tensile testing it in a dedicated device is a good alternative to determine the necessary parameters for the FLC

  6. Sexual Anxiety and Eroticism Predict the Development of Sexual Problems in Youth With a History of Sexual Abuse

    OpenAIRE

    Simon, Valerie A.; Feiring, Candice

    2008-01-01

    Youth with confirmed histories of sexual abuse (N = 118) were followed longitudinally to examine associations between their initial sexual reactions to abuse and subsequent sexual functioning. Participants were interviewed at abuse discovery (ages 8 through 15) and again 1 and 6 years later. Eroticism and sexual anxiety emerged as distinct indices of abuse-specific sexual reactions and predicted subsequent sexual functioning. Eroticism was associated with indicators of heightened sexuality, i...

  7. Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S

    2014-01-01

    The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones

  8. Designing Predictive Models for Beta-Lactam Allergy Using the Drug Allergy and Hypersensitivity Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiriac, Anca Mirela; Wang, Youna; Schrijvers, Rik; Bousquet, Philippe Jean; Mura, Thibault; Molinari, Nicolas; Demoly, Pascal

    Beta-lactam antibiotics represent the main cause of allergic reactions to drugs, inducing both immediate and nonimmediate allergies. The diagnosis is well established, usually based on skin tests and drug provocation tests, but cumbersome. To design predictive models for the diagnosis of beta-lactam allergy, based on the clinical history of patients with suspicions of allergic reactions to beta-lactams. The study included a retrospective phase, in which records of patients explored for a suspicion of beta-lactam allergy (in the Allergy Unit of the University Hospital of Montpellier between September 1996 and September 2012) were used to construct predictive models based on a logistic regression and decision tree method; a prospective phase, in which we performed an external validation of the chosen models in patients with suspicion of beta-lactam allergy recruited from 3 allergy centers (Montpellier, Nîmes, Narbonne) between March and November 2013. Data related to clinical history and allergy evaluation results were retrieved and analyzed. The retrospective and prospective phases included 1991 and 200 patients, respectively, with a different prevalence of confirmed beta-lactam allergy (23.6% vs 31%, P = .02). For the logistic regression method, performances of the models were similar in both samples: sensitivity was 51% (vs 60%), specificity 75% (vs 80%), positive predictive value 40% (vs 57%), and negative predictive value 83% (vs 82%). The decision tree method reached a sensitivity of 29.5% (vs 43.5%), specificity of 96.4% (vs 94.9%), positive predictive value of 71.6% (vs 79.4%), and negative predictive value of 81.6% (vs 81.3%). Two different independent methods using clinical history predictors were unable to accurately predict beta-lactam allergy and replace a conventional allergy evaluation for suspected beta-lactam allergy. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Enhancement of a Turbulence Sub-Model for More Accurate Predictions of Vertical Stratifications in 3D Coastal and Estuarine Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenrui Huang

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an improvement of the Mellor and Yamada's 2nd order turbulence model in the Princeton Ocean Model (POM for better predictions of vertical stratifications of salinity in estuaries. The model was evaluated in the strongly stratified estuary, Apalachicola River, Florida, USA. The three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was applied to study the stratified flow and salinity intrusion in the estuary in response to tide, wind, and buoyancy forces. Model tests indicate that model predictions over estimate the stratification when using the default turbulent parameters. Analytic studies of density-induced and wind-induced flows indicate that accurate estimation of vertical eddy viscosity plays an important role in describing vertical profiles. Initial model revision experiments show that the traditional approach of modifying empirical constants in the turbulence model leads to numerical instability. In order to improve the performance of the turbulence model while maintaining numerical stability, a stratification factor was introduced to allow adjustment of the vertical turbulent eddy viscosity and diffusivity. Sensitivity studies indicate that the stratification factor, ranging from 1.0 to 1.2, does not cause numerical instability in Apalachicola River. Model simulations show that increasing the turbulent eddy viscosity by a stratification factor of 1.12 results in an optimal agreement between model predictions and observations in the case study presented in this study. Using the proposed stratification factor provides a useful way for coastal modelers to improve the turbulence model performance in predicting vertical turbulent mixing in stratified estuaries and coastal waters.

  10. Neural Fuzzy Inference System-Based Weather Prediction Model and Its Precipitation Predicting Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Lu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.

  11. Childhood sexual abuse history and role reversal in parenting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, P C; Teti, L; Anderson, C L

    2000-06-01

    This study explored the main and interactive effects of sexual abuse history and relationship satisfaction on self-reported parenting, controlling for histories of physical abuse and parental alcoholism. The community sample consisted of 90 mothers of 5- to 8-year-old children. The sample was limited to those mothers currently in an intimate relationship, 19 of whom reported a history of childhood sexual abuse. Participants completed the Child Behavior Checklist, the Parenting Stress Inventory, the Family Cohesion Index, and questions assessing parent-child role reversal, history of abuse and parental alcoholism, and current relationship satisfaction. Results of analyses and multivariate analyses of covariance suggested that sexual abuse survivors with an unsatisfactory intimate relationship were more likely than either sexual abuse survivors with a satisfactory relationship or nonabused women to endorse items on a questionnaire of role reversal (defined as emotional overdependence upon one's child). Role reversal was not significantly predicted by histories of physical abuse or parental alcoholism or child's gender. While parenting stress was inversely predicted by the significant main effect of relationship satisfaction, neither parenting stress nor child behavior problems were predicted by the main effect of sexual abuse history or by the interaction between sexual abuse history and relationship satisfaction. These results suggest the unique relevance of sexual abuse history and relationship satisfaction in the prediction of a specific type of parent-child role reversal--namely, a mother's emotional overdependence upon her child.

  12. Long Range Aircraft Trajectory Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Magister, Tone

    2009-01-01

    The subject of the paper is the improvement of the aircraft future trajectory prediction accuracy for long-range airborne separation assurance. The strategic planning of safe aircraft flights and effective conflict avoidance tactics demand timely and accurate conflict detection based upon future four–dimensional airborne traffic situation prediction which is as accurate as each aircraft flight trajectory prediction. The improved kinematics model of aircraft relative flight considering flight ...

  13. Predicting Tunnel Squeezing Using Multiclass Support Vector Machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Sun

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Tunnel squeezing is one of the major geological disasters that often occur during the construction of tunnels in weak rock masses subjected to high in situ stresses. It could cause shield jamming, budget overruns, and construction delays and could even lead to tunnel instability and casualties. Therefore, accurate prediction or identification of tunnel squeezing is extremely important in the design and construction of tunnels. This study presents a modified application of a multiclass support vector machine (SVM to predict tunnel squeezing based on four parameters, that is, diameter (D, buried depth (H, support stiffness (K, and rock tunneling quality index (Q. We compiled a database from the literature, including 117 case histories obtained from different countries such as India, Nepal, and Bhutan, to train the multiclass SVM model. The proposed model was validated using 8-fold cross validation, and the average error percentage was approximately 11.87%. Compared with existing approaches, the proposed multiclass SVM model yields a better performance in predictive accuracy. More importantly, one could estimate the severity of potential squeezing problems based on the predicted squeezing categories/classes.

  14. Substance Abuse among High-Risk Sexual Offenders: Do Measures of Lifetime History of Substance Abuse Add to the Prediction of Recidivism over Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Looman, Jan; Abracen, Jeffrey

    2011-01-01

    There has been relatively little research on the degree to which measures of lifetime history of substance abuse add to the prediction of risk based on actuarial measures alone among sexual offenders. This issue is of relevance in that a history of substance abuse is related to relapse to substance using behavior. Furthermore, substance use has…

  15. To help, or not to help, that is not the only question: An investigation of the interplay of different factors to predict helping behavior in an accurate and effective way.

    OpenAIRE

    Urschler, David F.

    2016-01-01

    Previous research has shown that people’s willingness to help those in need is influenced by a multitude of factors (e.g., perceived dangerousness of a situation, cost-benefit analysis, attributions of responsibility, kinship, status, and culture). However, past research has often focused on single factors to predict helping intentions. Therefore, the present thesis examines the interplay of different factors in order to predict helping intentions in the most accurate and effective way. Th...

  16. Parental depressive history, parenting styles, and child psychopathology over 6 years: The contribution of each parent's depressive history to the other's parenting styles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopala-Sibley, Daniel C; Jelinek, Caitlin; Kessel, Ellen M; Frost, Allison; Allmann, Anna E S; Klein, Daniel N

    2017-10-01

    The link between parental depressive history and parenting styles is well established, as is the association of parenting with child psychopathology. However, little research has examined whether a depressive history in one parent predicts the parenting style of the other parent. As well, relatively little research has tested transactional models of the parenting-child psychopathology relationship in the context of parents' depressive histories. In this study, mothers and fathers of 392 children were assessed for a lifetime history of major depression when their children were 3 years old. They then completed measures of permissiveness and authoritarianism and their child's internalizing and externalizing symptoms when children were 3, 6, and 9 years old. The results showed that a depressive history in one parent predicted the other parent's permissiveness. Analyses then showed that child externalizing symptoms at age 3 predicted maternal permissiveness and authoritarianism and paternal permissiveness at age 6. Maternal permissiveness at age 6 predicted child externalizing symptoms at age 9. No relationships in either direction were found between parenting styles and child internalizing symptoms. The results highlight the importance of considering both parents' depressive histories when understanding parenting styles, and support transactional models of parenting styles and child externalizing symptoms.

  17. Absolute Hounsfield unit measurement on noncontrast computed tomography cannot accurately predict struvite stone composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchini, Giovanni Scala; Gebreselassie, Surafel; Liu, Xiaobo; Pynadath, Cindy; Snyder, Grace; Monga, Manoj

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of our study was to determine, in vivo, whether single-energy noncontrast computed tomography (NCCT) can accurately predict the presence/percentage of struvite stone composition. We retrospectively searched for all patients with struvite components on stone composition analysis between January 2008 and March 2012. Inclusion criteria were NCCT prior to stone analysis and stone size ≥4 mm. A single urologist, blinded to stone composition, reviewed all NCCT to acquire stone location, dimensions, and Hounsfield unit (HU). HU density (HUD) was calculated by dividing mean HU by the stone's largest transverse diameter. Stone analysis was performed via Fourier transform infrared spectrometry. Independent sample Student's t-test and analysis of variance (ANOVA) were used to compare HU/HUD among groups. Spearman's correlation test was used to determine the correlation between HU and stone size and also HU/HUD to % of each component within the stone. Significance was considered if pR=0.017; p=0.912) and negative with HUD (R=-0.20; p=0.898). Overall, 3 (6.8%) had stones (n=5) with other miscellaneous stones (n=39), no difference was found for HU (p=0.09) but HUD was significantly lower for pure stones (27.9±23.6 v 72.5±55.9, respectively; p=0.006). Again, significant overlaps were seen. Pure struvite stones have significantly lower HUD than mixed struvite stones, but overlap exists. A low HUD may increase the suspicion for a pure struvite calculus.

  18. Sex differences in cognitive ageing: testing predictions derived from life-history theory in a dioecious nematode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwoinska, Martyna K; Kolm, Niclas; Maklakov, Alexei A

    2013-12-01

    Life-history theory maintains that organisms allocate limited resources to different traits to maximize fitness. Learning ability and memory are costly and known to trade-off with longevity in invertebrates. However, since the relationship between longevity and fitness often differs between the sexes, it is likely that sexes will differentially resolve the trade-off between learning and longevity. We used an established associative learning paradigm in the dioecious nematode Caenorhabditis remanei, which is sexually dimorphic for lifespan, to study age-related learning ability in males and females. In particular, we tested the hypothesis that females (the shorter-lived sex) show higher learning ability than males early in life but senesce faster. Indeed, young females outperformed young males in learning a novel association between an odour (butanone) and food (bacteria). However, while learning ability and offspring production declined rapidly with age in females, males maintained high levels of these traits until mid-age. These results not only demonstrate sexual dimorphism in age-related learning ability but also suggest that it conforms to predictions derived from the life-history theory. © 2013.

  19. A new approach for diagnosing type 1 diabetes in autoantibody-positive individuals based on prediction and natural history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosenko, Jay M; Skyler, Jay S; DiMeglio, Linda A; Beam, Craig A; Krischer, Jeffrey P; Greenbaum, Carla J; Boulware, David; Rafkin, Lisa E; Matheson, Della; Herold, Kevan C; Mahon, Jeffrey; Palmer, Jerry P

    2015-02-01

    We assessed whether type 1 diabetes (T1D) can be diagnosed earlier using a new approach based on prediction and natural history in autoantibody-positive individuals. Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) and TrialNet Natural History Study (TNNHS) participants were studied. A metabolic index, the T1D Diagnostic Index60 (Index60), was developed from 2-h oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) using the log fasting C-peptide, 60-min C-peptide, and 60-min glucose. OGTTs with Index60 ≥2.00 and 2-h glucose <200 mg/dL (Ind60+Only) were compared with Index60 <2.00 and 2-h glucose ≥200 mg/dL (2hglu+Only) OGTTs as criteria for T1D. Individuals were assessed for C-peptide loss from the first Ind60+Only OGTT to diagnosis. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves were significantly higher for Index60 than for the 2-h glucose (P < 0.001 for both DPT-1 and the TNNHS). As a diagnostic criterion, sensitivity was higher for Ind60+Only than for 2hglu+Only (0.44 vs. 0.15 in DPT-1; 0.26 vs. 0.17 in the TNNHS) OGTTs. Specificity was somewhat higher for 2hglu+Only OGTTs in DPT-1 (0.97 vs. 0.91) but equivalent in the TNNHS (0.98 for both). Positive and negative predictive values were higher for Ind60+Only OGTTs in both studies. Postchallenge C-peptide levels declined significantly at each OGTT time point from the first Ind60+Only OGTT to the time of standard diagnosis (range -22 to -34% in DPT-1 and -14 to -27% in the TNNHS). C-peptide and glucose patterns differed markedly between Ind60+Only and 2hglu+Only OGTTs. An approach based on prediction and natural history appears to have utility for diagnosing T1D. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

  20. Estimating the state of a geophysical system with sparse observations: time delay methods to achieve accurate initial states for prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Zhe; Rey, Daniel; Ye, Jingxin; Abarbanel, Henry D. I.

    2017-01-01

    The problem of forecasting the behavior of a complex dynamical system through analysis of observational time-series data becomes difficult when the system expresses chaotic behavior and the measurements are sparse, in both space and/or time. Despite the fact that this situation is quite typical across many fields, including numerical weather prediction, the issue of whether the available observations are "sufficient" for generating successful forecasts is still not well understood. An analysis by Whartenby et al. (2013) found that in the context of the nonlinear shallow water equations on a β plane, standard nudging techniques require observing approximately 70 % of the full set of state variables. Here we examine the same system using a method introduced by Rey et al. (2014a), which generalizes standard nudging methods to utilize time delayed measurements. We show that in certain circumstances, it provides a sizable reduction in the number of observations required to construct accurate estimates and high-quality predictions. In particular, we find that this estimate of 70 % can be reduced to about 33 % using time delays, and even further if Lagrangian drifter locations are also used as measurements.

  1. A Real-Time Accurate Model and Its Predictive Fuzzy PID Controller for Pumped Storage Unit via Error Compensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhong Zhou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Model simulation and control of pumped storage unit (PSU are essential to improve the dynamic quality of power station. Only under the premise of the PSU models reflecting the actual transient process, the novel control method can be properly applied in the engineering. The contributions of this paper are that (1 a real-time accurate equivalent circuit model (RAECM of PSU via error compensation is proposed to reconcile the conflict between real-time online simulation and accuracy under various operating conditions, and (2 an adaptive predicted fuzzy PID controller (APFPID based on RAECM is put forward to overcome the instability of conventional control under no-load conditions with low water head. Respectively, all hydraulic factors in pipeline system are fully considered based on equivalent lumped-circuits theorem. The pretreatment, which consists of improved Suter-transformation and BP neural network, and online simulation method featured by two iterative loops are synthetically proposed to improve the solving accuracy of the pump-turbine. Moreover, the modified formulas for compensating error are derived with variable-spatial discretization to improve the accuracy of the real-time simulation further. The implicit RadauIIA method is verified to be more suitable for PSUGS owing to wider stable domain. Then, APFPID controller is constructed based on the integration of fuzzy PID and the model predictive control. Rolling prediction by RAECM is proposed to replace rolling optimization with its computational speed guaranteed. Finally, the simulation and on-site measurements are compared to prove trustworthy of RAECM under various running conditions. Comparative experiments also indicate that APFPID controller outperforms other controllers in most cases, especially low water head conditions. Satisfying results of RAECM have been achieved in engineering and it provides a novel model reference for PSUGS.

  2. Utility of formulas predicting the optimal nasal continuous positive airway pressure in a Greek population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiza, Sophia E; Bouloukaki, Izolde; Mermigkis, Charalampos; Panagou, Panagiotis; Tzanakis, Nikolaos; Moniaki, Violeta; Tzortzaki, Eleni; Siafakas, Nikolaos M

    2011-09-01

    There have been reports that optimal CPAP pressure can be predicted from a previously derived formula, with the Hoffstein formula being the most accurate and accepted in the literature so far. However, the validation of this predictive model has not been applied in different clinical settings. Our aim was to compare both the Hoffstein prediction formula and a newly derived formula to the CPAP pressure setting assessed during a formal CPAP titration study. We prospectively studied 1,111 patients (871 males/240 females) with obstructive sleep apnea hypopnea syndrome (OSAHS) undergoing a CPAP titration procedure. In this large population sample, we tested the Hoffstein formula, utilizing body mass index (BMI), neck circumference and apnea/hypopnea index (AHI), and we compared it with our new formula that included not only AHI and BMI but also smoking history and gender adjustment. We found that using the Hoffstein prediction formula, successful prediction (predicted CPAP pressure within ±2 cm H(2)O compared to the finally assessed optimum CPAP pressure during titration) was accomplished in 873 patients (79%), with significant correlation between CPAP predicted pressure (CPAPpred(1)) and the optimum CPAP pressure (CPAPopt) [r = 0.364, p history and gender adjustment, successful prediction was accomplished in 1,057 patients (95%), with significant correlation between CPAP predicted pressure (CPAPpred(2)) and the CPAPopt (r = 0.392, p titration. It may also be possible to shorten CPAP titration and perhaps in selected cases to combine it with the initial diagnostic study.

  3. An index predictive of cognitive outcome in retired professional American Football players with a history of sports concussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Mathew J; Woo, Ellen; Birath, J Brandon; Siders, Craig A; Kelly, Daniel F; Wang, Christina; Swerdloff, Ronald; Romero, Elizabeth; Kernan, Claudia; Cantu, Robert C; Guskiewicz, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    Various concussion characteristics and personal factors are associated with cognitive recovery in athletes. We developed an index based on concussion frequency, severity, and timeframe, as well as cognitive reserve (CR), and we assessed its predictive power regarding cognitive ability in retired professional football players. Data from 40 retired professional American football players were used in the current study. On average, participants had been retired from football for 20 years. Current neuropsychological performances, indicators of CR, concussion history, and play data were used to create an index for predicting cognitive outcome. The sample displayed a range of concussions, concussion severities, seasons played, CR, and cognitive ability. Many of the participants demonstrated cognitive deficits. The index strongly predicted global cognitive ability (R(2) = .31). The index also predicted the number of areas of neuropsychological deficit, which varied as a function of the deficit classification system used (Heaton: R(2) = .15; Wechsler: R(2) = .28). The current study demonstrated that a unique combination of CR, sports concussion, and game-related data can predict cognitive outcomes in participants who had been retired from professional American football for an average of 20 years. Such indices may prove to be useful for clinical decision making and research.

  4. The Role of Metacognitive Reading Strategies, Metacognitive Study and Learning Strategies, and Behavioral Study and Learning Strategies in Predicting Academic Success in Students With and Without a History of Reading Difficulties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevalier, Thérèse M; Parrila, Rauno; Ritchie, Krista C; Deacon, S Hélène

    2017-01-01

    We examined the self-reported use of reading, study, and learning strategies in university students with a history of reading difficulties (HRD; n = 77) and with no history of reading difficulties (NRD; n = 295). We examined both between-groups differences in strategy use and strategy use as a predictive measure of academic success. Participants completed online questionnaires regarding reading history and strategy use. GPA and frequency of use of academic support services were also obtained for all students. University students with HRD reported a different profile of strategy use than their NRD peers, and self-reported strategy use was differentially predictive of GPA for students with HRD and NRD. For students with HRD, the use of metacognitive reading strategies and the use of study aids predicted academic success. Implications for university student services providers are discussed. © Hammill Institute on Disabilities 2015.

  5. Metabolite signal identification in accurate mass metabolomics data with MZedDB, an interactive m/z annotation tool utilising predicted ionisation behaviour 'rules'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Snowdon Stuart

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Metabolomics experiments using Mass Spectrometry (MS technology measure the mass to charge ratio (m/z and intensity of ionised molecules in crude extracts of complex biological samples to generate high dimensional metabolite 'fingerprint' or metabolite 'profile' data. High resolution MS instruments perform routinely with a mass accuracy of Results Metabolite 'structures' harvested from publicly accessible databases were converted into a common format to generate a comprehensive archive in MZedDB. 'Rules' were derived from chemical information that allowed MZedDB to generate a list of adducts and neutral loss fragments putatively able to form for each structure and calculate, on the fly, the exact molecular weight of every potential ionisation product to provide targets for annotation searches based on accurate mass. We demonstrate that data matrices representing populations of ionisation products generated from different biological matrices contain a large proportion (sometimes > 50% of molecular isotopes, salt adducts and neutral loss fragments. Correlation analysis of ESI-MS data features confirmed the predicted relationships of m/z signals. An integrated isotope enumerator in MZedDB allowed verification of exact isotopic pattern distributions to corroborate experimental data. Conclusion We conclude that although ultra-high accurate mass instruments provide major insight into the chemical diversity of biological extracts, the facile annotation of a large proportion of signals is not possible by simple, automated query of current databases using computed molecular formulae. Parameterising MZedDB to take into account predicted ionisation behaviour and the biological source of any sample improves greatly both the frequency and accuracy of potential annotation 'hits' in ESI-MS data.

  6. CFD-FEM coupling for accurate prediction of thermal fatigue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hannink, M.H.C.; Kuczaj, A.K.; Blom, F.J.; Church, J.M.; Komen, E.M.J.

    2009-01-01

    Thermal fatigue is a safety related issue in primary pipework systems of nuclear power plants. Life extension of current reactors and the design of a next generation of new reactors lead to growing importance of research in this direction. The thermal fatigue degradation mechanism is induced by temperature fluctuations in a fluid, which arise from mixing of hot and cold flows. Accompanied physical phenomena include thermal stratification, thermal striping, and turbulence [1]. Current plant instrumentation systems allow monitoring of possible causes as stratification and temperature gradients at fatigue susceptible locations [1]. However, high-cycle temperature fluctuations associated with turbulent mixing cannot be adequately detected by common thermocouple instrumentations. For a proper evaluation of thermal fatigue, therefore, numerical simulations are necessary that couple instantaneous fluid and solid interactions. In this work, a strategy for the numerical prediction of thermal fatigue is presented. The approach couples Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and the Finite Element Method (FEM). For the development of the computational approach, a classical test case for the investigation of thermal fatigue problems is studied, i.e. mixing in a T-junction. Due to turbulent mixing of hot and cold fluids in two perpendicularly connected pipes, temperature fluctuations arise in the mixing zone downstream in the flow. Subsequently, these temperature fluctuations are also induced in the pipes. The stresses that arise due to the fluctuations may eventually lead to thermal fatigue. In the first step of the applied procedure, the temperature fluctuations in both fluid and structure are calculated using the CFD method. Subsequently, the temperature fluctuations in the structure are imposed as thermal loads in a FEM model of the pipes. A mechanical analysis is then performed to determine the thermal stresses, which are used to predict the fatigue lifetime of the structure

  7. The predictive power of family history measures of alcohol and drug problems and internalizing disorders in a college population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendler, Kenneth S; Edwards, Alexis; Myers, John; Cho, Seung Bin; Adkins, Amy; Dick, Danielle

    2015-07-01

    A family history (FH) of psychiatric and substance use problems is a potent risk factor for common internalizing and externalizing disorders. In a large web-based assessment of mental health in college students, we developed a brief set of screening questions for a FH of alcohol problems (AP), drug problems (DP) and depression-anxiety in four classes of relatives (father, mother, aunts/uncles/grandparents, and siblings) as reported by the student. Positive reports of a history of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety were substantially correlated within relatives. These FH measures predicted in the student, in an expected pattern, dimensions of personality and impulsivity, alcohol consumption and problems, smoking and nicotine dependence, use of illicit drugs, and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Using the mean score from the four classes of relatives was more predictive than using a familial/sporadic dichotomy. Interactions were seen between the FH of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety and peer deviance in predicting symptoms of alcohol and tobacco dependence. As the students aged, the FH of AP became a stronger predictor of alcohol problems. While we cannot directly assess the validity of these FH reports, the pattern of findings suggest that our brief screening items were able to assess, with some accuracy, the FH of substance misuse and internalizing psychiatric disorders in relatives. If correct, these measures can play an important role in the creation of developmental etiologic models for substance and internalizing psychiatric disorders which constitute one of the central goals of the overall project. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Parental depressive history, parenting styles, and child psychopathology over six years: The contribution of each parent’s depressive history to the other’s parenting styles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopala-Sibley, Daniel C.; Jelinek, Caitlin; Kessel, Ellen; Frost, Allison; Allmann, Anna E.S.; Klein, Daniel N.

    2017-01-01

    The link between parental depressive history and parenting styles is well established, as is the association of parenting with child psychopathology. However, little research has examined whether a depressive history in one parent predicts the parenting style of the other parent. As well, relatively little research has tested transactional models of the parenting-child psychopathology relationship in the context of parents’ depressive histories. In this study, mothers and fathers of 392 children were assessed for a lifetime history of major depression when their children were 3 years old. They then completed measures of permissiveness and authoritarianism and their child’s internalizing and externalizing symptoms when children were 3, 6, and 9 years old. Results showed that a depressive history in one parent predicted the other parent’s permissiveness. Analyses then showed that child externalizing symptoms at age 3 predicted maternal permissiveness and authoritarianism and paternal permissiveness at age 6. Maternal permissiveness at age 6 predicted child externalizing symptoms at age 9. No relationships in either direction were found between parenting styles and child internalizing symptoms. Results highlight the importance of considering both parents’ depressive histories when understanding parenting styles, and support transactional models of parenting styles and child externalizing symptoms. PMID:28414019

  9. Sensor Data Fusion for Accurate Cloud Presence Prediction Using Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesse S. Jin

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Sensor data fusion technology can be used to best extract useful information from multiple sensor observations. It has been widely applied in various applications such as target tracking, surveillance, robot navigation, signal and image processing. This paper introduces a novel data fusion approach in a multiple radiation sensor environment using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The methodology is used to predict cloud presence based on the inputs of radiation sensors. Different radiation data have been used for the cloud prediction. The potential application areas of the algorithm include renewable power for virtual power station where the prediction of cloud presence is the most challenging issue for its photovoltaic output. The algorithm is validated by comparing the predicted cloud presence with the corresponding sunshine occurrence data that were recorded as the benchmark. Our experiments have indicated that comparing to the approaches using individual sensors, the proposed data fusion approach can increase correct rate of cloud prediction by ten percent, and decrease unknown rate of cloud prediction by twenty three percent.

  10. Accurate lithography simulation model based on convolutional neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Yuki; Kimura, Taiki; Matsunawa, Tetsuaki; Nojima, Shigeki

    2017-07-01

    Lithography simulation is an essential technique for today's semiconductor manufacturing process. In order to calculate an entire chip in realistic time, compact resist model is commonly used. The model is established for faster calculation. To have accurate compact resist model, it is necessary to fix a complicated non-linear model function. However, it is difficult to decide an appropriate function manually because there are many options. This paper proposes a new compact resist model using CNN (Convolutional Neural Networks) which is one of deep learning techniques. CNN model makes it possible to determine an appropriate model function and achieve accurate simulation. Experimental results show CNN model can reduce CD prediction errors by 70% compared with the conventional model.

  11. Anatomically accurate, finite model eye for optical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, H L; Brennan, N A

    1997-08-01

    There is a need for a schematic eye that models vision accurately under various conditions such as refractive surgical procedures, contact lens and spectacle wear, and near vision. Here we propose a new model eye close to anatomical, biometric, and optical realities. This is a finite model with four aspheric refracting surfaces and a gradient-index lens. It has an equivalent power of 60.35 D and an axial length of 23.95 mm. The new model eye provides spherical aberration values within the limits of empirical results and predicts chromatic aberration for wavelengths between 380 and 750 nm. It provides a model for calculating optical transfer functions and predicting optical performance of the eye.

  12. Accurately Detecting Students' Lies regarding Relational Aggression by Correctional Instructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickhauser, Oliver; Reinhard, Marc-Andre; Marksteiner, Tamara

    2012-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of correctional instructions when detecting lies about relational aggression. Based on models from the field of social psychology, we predict that correctional instruction will lead to a less pronounced lie bias and to more accurate lie detection. Seventy-five teachers received videotapes of students' true denial…

  13. Diffusion archeology for diffusion progression history reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sefer, Emre; Kingsford, Carl

    2016-11-01

    Diffusion through graphs can be used to model many real-world processes, such as the spread of diseases, social network memes, computer viruses, or water contaminants. Often, a real-world diffusion cannot be directly observed while it is occurring - perhaps it is not noticed until some time has passed, continuous monitoring is too costly, or privacy concerns limit data access. This leads to the need to reconstruct how the present state of the diffusion came to be from partial diffusion data. Here, we tackle the problem of reconstructing a diffusion history from one or more snapshots of the diffusion state. This ability can be invaluable to learn when certain computer nodes are infected or which people are the initial disease spreaders to control future diffusions. We formulate this problem over discrete-time SEIRS-type diffusion models in terms of maximum likelihood. We design methods that are based on submodularity and a novel prize-collecting dominating-set vertex cover (PCDSVC) relaxation that can identify likely diffusion steps with some provable performance guarantees. Our methods are the first to be able to reconstruct complete diffusion histories accurately in real and simulated situations. As a special case, they can also identify the initial spreaders better than the existing methods for that problem. Our results for both meme and contaminant diffusion show that the partial diffusion data problem can be overcome with proper modeling and methods, and that hidden temporal characteristics of diffusion can be predicted from limited data.

  14. An analytical model to predict the volume of sand during drilling and production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoof Gholami

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Sand production is an undesired phenomenon occurring in unconsolidated formations due to shear failure and hydrodynamic forces. There have been many approaches developed to predict sand production and prevent it by changing drilling or production strategies. However, assumptions involved in these approaches have limited their applications to very specific scenarios. In this paper, an elliptical model based on the borehole shape is presented to predict the volume of sand produced during the drilling and depletion stages of oil and gas reservoirs. A shape factor parameter is introduced to estimate the changes in the geometry of the borehole as a result of shear failure. A carbonate reservoir from the south of Iran with a solid production history is used to show the application of the developed methodology. Deriving mathematical equations for determination of the shape factor based on different failure criteria indicate that the effect of the intermediate principal stress should be taken into account to achieve an accurate result. However, it should be noticed that the methodology presented can only be used when geomechanical parameters are accurately estimated prior to the production stage when using wells and field data.

  15. New and Accurate Predictive Model for the Efficacy of Extracorporeal Shock Wave Therapy in Managing Patients With Chronic Plantar Fasciitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Mengchen; Chen, Ni; Huang, Quan; Marla, Anastasia Sulindro; Ma, Junming; Ye, Jie; Mo, Wen

    2017-12-01

    Youden index was .4243, .3003, and .7189, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good fitting of the predictive model, with an overall accuracy of 89.6%. This study establishes a new and accurate predictive model for the efficacy of ESWT in managing patients with chronic plantar fasciitis. The use of these parameters, in the form of a predictive model for ESWT efficacy, has the potential to improve decision-making in the application of ESWT. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Effect of Curing Temperature Histories on the Compressive Strength Development of High-Strength Concrete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keun-Hyeok Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the relative strength-maturity relationship of high-strength concrete (HSC specifically developed for nuclear facility structures while considering the economic efficiency and durability of the concrete. Two types of mixture proportions with water-to-binder ratios of 0.4 and 0.28 were tested under different temperature histories including (1 isothermal curing conditions of 5°C, 20°C, and 40°C and (2 terraced temperature histories of 20°C for an initial age of individual 1, 3, or 7 days and a constant temperature of 5°C for the subsequent ages. On the basis of the test results, the traditional maturity function of an equivalent age was modified to consider the offset maturity and the insignificance of subsequent curing temperature after an age of 3 days on later strength of concrete. To determine the key parameters in the maturity function, the setting behavior, apparent activation energy, and rate constant of the prepared mixtures were also measured. This study reveals that the compressive strength development of HSC cured at the reference temperature for an early age of 3 days is insignificantly affected by the subsequent curing temperature histories. The proposed maturity approach with the modified equivalent age accurately predicts the strength development of HSC.

  17. Single grains, thermal histories, and the 40Ar/39Ar method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, Norrie

    1989-01-01

    A key part in unraveling the history of the physical evolution of the earth is knowledge of the earth's thermal history. 40 Ar/ 39 Ar step heating of mineral samples provides a means of defining a local thermal history. to do this accurately the challenge is to extract meaningful diffusion parameters from a mineral's Arrhenius plot. In the case of biotite single grains, where the laboratory release of argon is a complex process, this can be a difficult task. (12 refs., 5 figs.)

  18. Reionization history and CMB parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dizgah, Azadeh Moradinezhad; Kinney, William H.; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.

    2013-01-01

    We study how uncertainty in the reionization history of the universe affects estimates of other cosmological parameters from the Cosmic Microwave Background. We analyze WMAP7 data and synthetic Planck-quality data generated using a realistic scenario for the reionization history of the universe obtained from high-resolution numerical simulation. We perform parameter estimation using a simple sudden reionization approximation, and using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique proposed by Mortonson and Hu. We reach two main conclusions: (1) Adopting a simple sudden reionization model does not introduce measurable bias into values for other parameters, indicating that detailed modeling of reionization is not necessary for the purpose of parameter estimation from future CMB data sets such as Planck. (2) PCA analysis does not allow accurate reconstruction of the actual reionization history of the universe in a realistic case

  19. Reionization history and CMB parameter estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dizgah, Azadeh Moradinezhad; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Kinney, William H.

    2013-05-01

    We study how uncertainty in the reionization history of the universe affects estimates of other cosmological parameters from the Cosmic Microwave Background. We analyze WMAP7 data and synthetic Planck-quality data generated using a realistic scenario for the reionization history of the universe obtained from high-resolution numerical simulation. We perform parameter estimation using a simple sudden reionization approximation, and using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique proposed by Mortonson and Hu. We reach two main conclusions: (1) Adopting a simple sudden reionization model does not introduce measurable bias into values for other parameters, indicating that detailed modeling of reionization is not necessary for the purpose of parameter estimation from future CMB data sets such as Planck. (2) PCA analysis does not allow accurate reconstruction of the actual reionization history of the universe in a realistic case.

  20. Exploring the relationship between sequence similarity and accurate phylogenetic trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantarel, Brandi L; Morrison, Hilary G; Pearson, William

    2006-11-01

    We have characterized the relationship between accurate phylogenetic reconstruction and sequence similarity, testing whether high levels of sequence similarity can consistently produce accurate evolutionary trees. We generated protein families with known phylogenies using a modified version of the PAML/EVOLVER program that produces insertions and deletions as well as substitutions. Protein families were evolved over a range of 100-400 point accepted mutations; at these distances 63% of the families shared significant sequence similarity. Protein families were evolved using balanced and unbalanced trees, with ancient or recent radiations. In families sharing statistically significant similarity, about 60% of multiple sequence alignments were 95% identical to true alignments. To compare recovered topologies with true topologies, we used a score that reflects the fraction of clades that were correctly clustered. As expected, the accuracy of the phylogenies was greatest in the least divergent families. About 88% of phylogenies clustered over 80% of clades in families that shared significant sequence similarity, using Bayesian, parsimony, distance, and maximum likelihood methods. However, for protein families with short ancient branches (ancient radiation), only 30% of the most divergent (but statistically significant) families produced accurate phylogenies, and only about 70% of the second most highly conserved families, with median expectation values better than 10(-60), produced accurate trees. These values represent upper bounds on expected tree accuracy for sequences with a simple divergence history; proteins from 700 Giardia families, with a similar range of sequence similarities but considerably more gaps, produced much less accurate trees. For our simulated insertions and deletions, correct multiple sequence alignments did not perform much better than those produced by T-COFFEE, and including sequences with expressed sequence tag-like sequencing errors did not

  1. Prediction of collision cross section and retention time for broad scope screening in gradient reversed-phase liquid chromatography-ion mobility-high resolution accurate mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollerup, Christian Brinch; Mardal, Marie; Dalsgaard, Petur Weihe; Linnet, Kristian; Barron, Leon Patrick

    2018-03-23

    Exact mass, retention time (RT), and collision cross section (CCS) are used as identification parameters in liquid chromatography coupled to ion mobility high resolution accurate mass spectrometry (LC-IM-HRMS). Targeted screening analyses are now more flexible and can be expanded for suspect and non-targeted screening. These allow for tentative identification of new compounds, and in-silico predicted reference values are used for improving confidence and filtering false-positive identifications. In this work, predictions of both RT and CCS values are performed with machine learning using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Prediction was based on molecular descriptors, 827 RTs, and 357 CCS values from pharmaceuticals, drugs of abuse, and their metabolites. ANN models for the prediction of RT or CCS separately were examined, and the potential to predict both from a single model was investigated for the first time. The optimized combined RT-CCS model was a four-layered multi-layer perceptron ANN, and the 95th prediction error percentiles were within 2 min RT error and 5% relative CCS error for the external validation set (n = 36) and the full RT-CCS dataset (n = 357). 88.6% (n = 733) of predicted RTs were within 2 min error for the full dataset. Overall, when using 2 min RT error and 5% relative CCS error, 91.9% (n = 328) of compounds were retained, while 99.4% (n = 355) were retained when using at least one of these thresholds. This combined prediction approach can therefore be useful for rapid suspect/non-targeted screening involving HRMS, and will support current workflows. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Some Recent Developments in the Endochronic Theory with Application to Cyclic Histories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valanis, K. C.; Lee, C. F.

    1983-01-01

    Constitutive equations with only two easily determined material constants predict the stress (strain) response of normalized mild steel to a variety of general strain (stress) histories, without a need for special unloading-reloading rules. The equations are derived from the endochronic theory of plasticity of isotropic materials with an intrinsic time scale defined in the plastic strain space. Agreement between theoretical predictions and experiments are are excellent quantitatively in cases of various uniaxial constant amplitude histories, variable uniaxial strain amplitude histories and cyclic relaxation. The cyclic ratcheting phenomenon is predicted by the present theory.

  3. Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. V. Drisya

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that deterministic forecasting methods can make accurate short-term predictions of wind speed using past data, at locations where the wind dynamics exhibit chaotic behaviour. The predictions are remarkably accurate up to 1 h with a normalised RMSE (root mean square error of less than 0.02 and reasonably accurate up to 3 h with an error of less than 0.06. Repeated application of these methods at 234 different geographical locations for predicting wind speeds at 30-day intervals for 3 years reveals that the accuracy of prediction is more or less the same across all locations and time periods. Comparison of the results with f-ARIMA model predictions shows that the deterministic models with suitable parameters are capable of returning improved prediction accuracy and capturing the dynamical variations of the actual time series more faithfully. These methods are simple and computationally efficient and require only records of past data for making short-term wind speed forecasts within practically tolerable margin of errors.

  4. Surgical history of ancient China: part 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Louis

    2009-12-01

    Although surgery was an accepted and quite proficient craft very early on in Chinese history, it has deteriorated through the ages. Despite the fact that anaesthetic agents in major surgery were employed during the third century, Chinese surgery is conspicuous by its stagnation. Reverence for the dead, filial piety, abhorrence of shedding blood and other conservative attitudes make it impossible for any accurate knowledge of the human anatomy and physiology, without which surgery cannot progress. This article surveys some highlights in the history of surgery in ancient China and examines the factors responsible for its decline. The second concluding part deals with orthopaedics.

  5. Safe surgery: how accurate are we at predicting intra-operative blood loss?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    2012-02-01

    Introduction Preoperative estimation of intra-operative blood loss by both anaesthetist and operating surgeon is a criterion of the World Health Organization\\'s surgical safety checklist. The checklist requires specific preoperative planning when anticipated blood loss is greater than 500 mL. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of surgeons and anaesthetists at predicting intra-operative blood loss. Methods A 6-week prospective study of intermediate and major operations in an academic medical centre was performed. An independent observer interviewed surgical and anaesthetic consultants and registrars, preoperatively asking each to predict expected blood loss in millilitre. Intra-operative blood loss was measured and compared with these predictions. Parameters including the use of anticoagulation and anti-platelet therapy as well as intra-operative hypothermia and hypotension were recorded. Results One hundred sixty-eight operations were included in the study, including 142 elective and 26 emergency operations. Blood loss was predicted to within 500 mL of measured blood loss in 89% of cases. Consultant surgeons tended to underestimate blood loss, doing so in 43% of all cases, while consultant anaesthetists were more likely to overestimate (60% of all operations). Twelve patients (7%) had underestimation of blood loss of more than 500 mL by both surgeon and anaesthetist. Thirty per cent (n = 6\\/20) of patients requiring transfusion of a blood product within 24 hours of surgery had blood loss underestimated by more than 500 mL by both surgeon and anaesthetist. There was no significant difference in prediction between patients on anti-platelet or anticoagulation therapy preoperatively and those not on the said therapies. Conclusion Predicted intra-operative blood loss was within 500 mL of measured blood loss in 89% of operations. In 30% of patients who ultimately receive a blood transfusion, both the surgeon and anaesthetist significantly underestimate

  6. ROCK I Has More Accurate Prognostic Value than MET in Predicting Patient Survival in Colorectal Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jian; Bharadwaj, Shruthi S; Guzman, Grace; Vishnubhotla, Ramana; Glover, Sarah C

    2015-06-01

    Colorectal cancer remains the second leading cause of death in the United States despite improvements in incidence rates and advancements in screening. The present study evaluated the prognostic value of two tumor markers, MET and ROCK I, which have been noted in other cancers to provide more accurate prognoses of patient outcomes than tumor staging alone. We constructed a tissue microarray from surgical specimens of adenocarcinomas from 108 colorectal cancer patients. Using immunohistochemistry, we examined the expression levels of tumor markers MET and ROCK I, with a pathologist blinded to patient identities and clinical outcomes providing the scoring of MET and ROCK I expression. We then used retrospective analysis of patients' survival data to provide correlations with expression levels of MET and ROCK I. Both MET and ROCK I were significantly over-expressed in colorectal cancer tissues, relative to the unaffected adjacent mucosa. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that patients' 5-year survival was inversely correlated with levels of expression of ROCK I. In contrast, MET was less strongly correlated with five-year survival. ROCK I provides better efficacy in predicting patient outcomes, compared to either tumor staging or MET expression. As a result, ROCK I may provide a less invasive method of assessing patient prognoses and directing therapeutic interventions. Copyright© 2015 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

  7. Gaussian Process Regression for WDM System Performance Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wass, Jesper; Thrane, Jakob; Piels, Molly

    2017-01-01

    Gaussian process regression is numerically and experimentally investigated to predict the bit error rate of a 24 x 28 CiBd QPSK WDM system. The proposed method produces accurate predictions from multi-dimensional and sparse measurement data.......Gaussian process regression is numerically and experimentally investigated to predict the bit error rate of a 24 x 28 CiBd QPSK WDM system. The proposed method produces accurate predictions from multi-dimensional and sparse measurement data....

  8. Life History Theory and Social Deviance: The Mediating Role of Executive Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenner, C. J.; Bianchi, J.; Figueredo, A. J.; Rushton, J. Philippe; Jacobs, W. J.

    2013-01-01

    The present work examined predicted relations among Life History strategies, Executive Functions, socially antagonistic attitudes, socially antagonistic behaviors, and general intelligence. Life History (LH) theory predicts that Executive Functions and socially antagonistic attitudes and behaviors underpin an interrelated and coherent set of…

  9. Discovery of a general method of solving the Schrödinger and dirac equations that opens a way to accurately predictive quantum chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakatsuji, Hiroshi

    2012-09-18

    Just as Newtonian law governs classical physics, the Schrödinger equation (SE) and the relativistic Dirac equation (DE) rule the world of chemistry. So, if we can solve these equations accurately, we can use computation to predict chemistry precisely. However, for approximately 80 years after the discovery of these equations, chemists believed that they could not solve SE and DE for atoms and molecules that included many electrons. This Account reviews ideas developed over the past decade to further the goal of predictive quantum chemistry. Between 2000 and 2005, I discovered a general method of solving the SE and DE accurately. As a first inspiration, I formulated the structure of the exact wave function of the SE in a compact mathematical form. The explicit inclusion of the exact wave function's structure within the variational space allows for the calculation of the exact wave function as a solution of the variational method. Although this process sounds almost impossible, it is indeed possible, and I have published several formulations and applied them to solve the full configuration interaction (CI) with a very small number of variables. However, when I examined analytical solutions for atoms and molecules, the Hamiltonian integrals in their secular equations diverged. This singularity problem occurred in all atoms and molecules because it originates from the singularity of the Coulomb potential in their Hamiltonians. To overcome this problem, I first introduced the inverse SE and then the scaled SE. The latter simpler idea led to immediate and surprisingly accurate solution for the SEs of the hydrogen atom, helium atom, and hydrogen molecule. The free complement (FC) method, also called the free iterative CI (free ICI) method, was efficient for solving the SEs. In the FC method, the basis functions that span the exact wave function are produced by the Hamiltonian of the system and the zeroth-order wave function. These basis functions are called complement

  10. Quantum histories and their implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kent, A.

    2000-01-01

    Classical mechanics and standard Copenhagen quantum mechanics respect subspace implications. For example, if a particle is confined in a particular region R of space, then in these theories we can deduce that it is confined in regions containing R. However, subspace implications are generally violated by versions of quantum theory that assign probabilities to histories, such as the consistent histories approach. I define here a new criterion, ordered consistency, which refines the criterion of consistency and has the property that inferences made by ordered consistent sets do not violate subspace relations. This raises the question: do the operators defining our observations form an ordered consistent history? If so, ordered consistency defines a version of quantum theory with greater predictive power than the consistent histories formalism. If not, and our observations are defined by a non-ordered consistent quantum history, then subspace implications are not generally valid. (orig.)

  11. Accurate, model-based tuning of synthetic gene expression using introns in S. cerevisiae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ido Yofe

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Introns are key regulators of eukaryotic gene expression and present a potentially powerful tool for the design of synthetic eukaryotic gene expression systems. However, intronic control over gene expression is governed by a multitude of complex, incompletely understood, regulatory mechanisms. Despite this lack of detailed mechanistic understanding, here we show how a relatively simple model enables accurate and predictable tuning of synthetic gene expression system in yeast using several predictive intron features such as transcript folding and sequence motifs. Using only natural Saccharomyces cerevisiae introns as regulators, we demonstrate fine and accurate control over gene expression spanning a 100 fold expression range. These results broaden the engineering toolbox of synthetic gene expression systems and provide a framework in which precise and robust tuning of gene expression is accomplished.

  12. Prostate cancer risk prediction based on complete prostate cancer family history

    OpenAIRE

    Albright, Frederick; Stephenson, Robert A; Agarwal, Neeraj; Teerlink, Craig C; Lowrance, William T; Farnham, James M; Albright, Lisa A Cannon

    2014-01-01

    Background Prostate cancer (PC) relative risks (RRs) are typically estimated based on status of close relatives or presence of any affected relatives. This study provides RR estimates using extensive and specific PC family history. Methods A retrospective population-based study was undertaken to estimate RRs for PC based on complete family history of PC. A total of 635,443 males, all with ancestral genealogy data, were analyzed. RRs for PC were determined based upon PC rates estimated from ma...

  13. JCZS: An Intermolecular Potential Database for Performing Accurate Detonation and Expansion Calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baer, M.R.; Hobbs, M.L.; McGee, B.C.

    1998-11-03

    Exponential-13,6 (EXP-13,6) potential pammeters for 750 gases composed of 48 elements were determined and assembled in a database, referred to as the JCZS database, for use with the Jacobs Cowperthwaite Zwisler equation of state (JCZ3-EOS)~l) The EXP- 13,6 force constants were obtained by using literature values of Lennard-Jones (LJ) potential functions, by using corresponding states (CS) theory, by matching pure liquid shock Hugoniot data, and by using molecular volume to determine the approach radii with the well depth estimated from high-pressure isen- tropes. The JCZS database was used to accurately predict detonation velocity, pressure, and temperature for 50 dif- 3 Accurate predictions were also ferent explosives with initial densities ranging from 0.25 glcm3 to 1.97 g/cm . obtained for pure liquid shock Hugoniots, static properties of nitrogen, and gas detonations at high initial pressures.

  14. A machine learning approach to the accurate prediction of multi-leaf collimator positional errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Joel N. K.; Park, Jong Min; Park, So-Yeon; In Park, Jong; Choi, Yunseok; Ye, Sung-Joon

    2016-03-01

    Discrepancies between planned and delivered movements of multi-leaf collimators (MLCs) are an important source of errors in dose distributions during radiotherapy. In this work we used machine learning techniques to train models to predict these discrepancies, assessed the accuracy of the model predictions, and examined the impact these errors have on quality assurance (QA) procedures and dosimetry. Predictive leaf motion parameters for the models were calculated from the plan files, such as leaf position and velocity, whether the leaf was moving towards or away from the isocenter of the MLC, and many others. Differences in positions between synchronized DICOM-RT planning files and DynaLog files reported during QA delivery were used as a target response for training of the models. The final model is capable of predicting MLC positions during delivery to a high degree of accuracy. For moving MLC leaves, predicted positions were shown to be significantly closer to delivered positions than were planned positions. By incorporating predicted positions into dose calculations in the TPS, increases were shown in gamma passing rates against measured dose distributions recorded during QA delivery. For instance, head and neck plans with 1%/2 mm gamma criteria had an average increase in passing rate of 4.17% (SD  =  1.54%). This indicates that the inclusion of predictions during dose calculation leads to a more realistic representation of plan delivery. To assess impact on the patient, dose volumetric histograms (DVH) using delivered positions were calculated for comparison with planned and predicted DVHs. In all cases, predicted dose volumetric parameters were in closer agreement to the delivered parameters than were the planned parameters, particularly for organs at risk on the periphery of the treatment area. By incorporating the predicted positions into the TPS, the treatment planner is given a more realistic view of the dose distribution as it will truly be

  15. Prediction of mortality using on-line, self-reported health data: empirical test of the RealAge score.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William R Hobbs

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We validate an online, personalized mortality risk measure called "RealAge" assigned to 30 million individuals over the past 10 years. METHODS: 188,698 RealAge survey respondents were linked to California Department of Public Health death records using a one-way cryptographic hash of first name, last name, and date of birth. 1,046 were identified as deceased. We used Cox proportional hazards models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves to estimate the relative scales and predictive accuracies of chronological age, the RealAge score, and the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (HCHD in this data. To address concerns about selection and to examine possible heterogeneity, we compared the results by time to death at registration, underlying cause of death, and relative health among users. RESULTS: THE REALAGE SCORE IS ACCURATELY SCALED (HAZARD RATIOS: age 1.076; RealAge-age 1.084 and more accurate than chronological age (age c-statistic: 0.748; RealAge c-statistic: 0.847 in predicting mortality from hard coronary heart disease following survey completion. The score is more accurate than the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (c-statistic: 0.814, perhaps because self-reported cholesterol levels are relatively uninformative in the RealAge user sample. RealAge predicts deaths from malignant neoplasms, heart disease, and external causes. The score does not predict malignant neoplasm deaths when restricted to users with no smoking history, no prior cancer diagnosis, and no indicated health interest in cancer (p-value 0.820. CONCLUSION: The RealAge score is a valid measure of mortality risk in its user population.

  16. Accurate quantum chemical calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.; Langhoff, Stephen R.; Taylor, Peter R.

    1989-01-01

    An important goal of quantum chemical calculations is to provide an understanding of chemical bonding and molecular electronic structure. A second goal, the prediction of energy differences to chemical accuracy, has been much harder to attain. First, the computational resources required to achieve such accuracy are very large, and second, it is not straightforward to demonstrate that an apparently accurate result, in terms of agreement with experiment, does not result from a cancellation of errors. Recent advances in electronic structure methodology, coupled with the power of vector supercomputers, have made it possible to solve a number of electronic structure problems exactly using the full configuration interaction (FCI) method within a subspace of the complete Hilbert space. These exact results can be used to benchmark approximate techniques that are applicable to a wider range of chemical and physical problems. The methodology of many-electron quantum chemistry is reviewed. Methods are considered in detail for performing FCI calculations. The application of FCI methods to several three-electron problems in molecular physics are discussed. A number of benchmark applications of FCI wave functions are described. Atomic basis sets and the development of improved methods for handling very large basis sets are discussed: these are then applied to a number of chemical and spectroscopic problems; to transition metals; and to problems involving potential energy surfaces. Although the experiences described give considerable grounds for optimism about the general ability to perform accurate calculations, there are several problems that have proved less tractable, at least with current computer resources, and these and possible solutions are discussed.

  17. Sequence History Update Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanampompan, Teerapat; Gladden, Roy; Fisher, Forest; DelGuercio, Chris

    2008-01-01

    The Sequence History Update Tool performs Web-based sequence statistics archiving for Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). Using a single UNIX command, the software takes advantage of sequencing conventions to automatically extract the needed statistics from multiple files. This information is then used to populate a PHP database, which is then seamlessly formatted into a dynamic Web page. This tool replaces a previous tedious and error-prone process of manually editing HTML code to construct a Web-based table. Because the tool manages all of the statistics gathering and file delivery to and from multiple data sources spread across multiple servers, there is also a considerable time and effort savings. With the use of The Sequence History Update Tool what previously took minutes is now done in less than 30 seconds, and now provides a more accurate archival record of the sequence commanding for MRO.

  18. A history in-care predicts unique characteristics in a homeless population with mental illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roos, Leslie E; Distasio, Jino; Bolton, Shay-Lee; Katz, Laurence Y; Afifi, Tracie O; Isaak, Corinne; Goering, Paula; Bruce, Lucille; Sareen, Jitender

    2014-10-01

    Multiple studies of homeless persons report an increased prevalence of a history in-care, but there is a dearth of information on associated outcomes or relevant demographic profiles. This information is critical to understanding if certain individuals are at elevated risk or might benefit from specific intervention. Here, we investigate how a history in-care relates to demographics and multiple outcome measures in a homeless population with mental illness. Using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), the Short-Form 12, and a trauma questionnaire, we investigated baseline differences in demographics and length of homelessness in the At Home/Chez Soi Trial (N=504) Winnipeg homeless population with and without a history in-care. Approximately 50% of the homeless sample reported a history in-care. This group was significantly more likely to be young, female, married or cohabitating, of Aboriginal heritage, have less education, and have longer lifetime homelessness. Individuals of Aboriginal heritage with a history in-care were significantly more likely to report a familial history of residential school. Individuals with a history in-care experienced different prevalence rates of Axis 1 mental disorders. Those with a history in-care also reported significantly more traumatic events (particularly interpersonal). A distinctive high-risk profile emerged for individuals with a history in-care. Sociocultural factors of colonization and intergenerational transmission of trauma appear to be particularly relevant in the trajectories for individuals of Aboriginal heritage. Given the high prevalence of a history in-care, interventions and policy should reflect the specific vulnerability of this population, particularly in regards to trauma-informed services. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Magnetic Resonance Imaging: An accurate diagnostic tool in the precise localization of penile fracture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mujeeb M Rahiman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An 18-year-old male presented with history and clinical findings suggestive of penile fracture. An MRI demonstrated disruption of the tunica albuginea and corpora cavernosa on the left dorso-lateral aspect, mid-shaft of penis with adjacent hematoma, and subcutaneous edema. At surgery, imaging findings were found to be accurate, and the penis was successfully repaired with minimal postoperative morbidity.

  20. Chromosomal fragility syndrome and family history of radiosensitivity as indicators for radiotherapy dose modification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alsbeih, Ghazi; Story, Michael D.; Maor, Moshe H.; Geara, Fady B.; Brock, William A.

    2003-01-01

    Beside a few known radiosensitive syndromes, a patient's reaction to radiotherapy is difficult to predict. In this report we describe the management of a pediatric cancer patient presented with a family history of radiosensitivity and cancer proneness. Laboratory investigations revealed a chromosomal fragility syndrome and an increased cellular radiosensitivity in vitro. AT gene sequencing revealed no mutations. The patient was treated with reduced radiation doses to avoid the presumed increased risks of toxicity to normal tissues. The patient tolerated well the treatment with no significant acute or late radiation sequelae. Five years later, the patient remains both disease and complications free. While an accurate laboratory test for radiosensitivity is still lacking, assessments of chromosomal fragility, cell survival and clinical medicine will continue to be useful for a small number of patients

  1. Atmospheric Metal Pollutants-Archives, Methods, and History

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norton, Stephen A.

    2007-01-01

    Pollution of the atmosphere with cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb) is a consequence of human activities. Natural archives are necessary to reconstruct the long-term history of metal deposition because accurate measurement of atmospheric deposition is a recent accomplishment. Reconstructions require: (1) accurate determination of concentrations of elements and isotopes, (2) accurate chronology of archives, and (3) archives that faithfully record atmosphere deposition. The most useful long-term archives are accumulations of ice and snow, peat, and lake sediment. Quantification of Cd deposition is uncommon because of its low concentration and substantial chemical mobility. Nonetheless, trends in peat and lake sediment are similar to those of Hg and Pb since ca. 1800 a.d. Both Hg and Pb are relatively chemically immobile and thus the peat and lake archives are believed to record historic trends of atmospheric deposition. Isotopic and concentration studies of Pb indicate a history of northern hemisphere atmospheric pollution extending back prior to 0 a.d. Although measurements of Hg concentration are now routine, isotopic measurements are in their infancy. Some Hg pollution sources have unique isotopic ratios, thereby contributing unique signals to the total Hg. Maximum accumulation rates of Hg and Pb occur up to 10 years later than for Cd (1970s versus 1960s in eastern North America, perhaps slightly later in Europe). By 2004, deposition of Cd, Hg, and Pb had declined from peak values in eastern North America more than 75, 75, and 90%, respectively

  2. NESmapper: accurate prediction of leucine-rich nuclear export signals using activity-based profiles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shunichi Kosugi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The nuclear export of proteins is regulated largely through the exportin/CRM1 pathway, which involves the specific recognition of leucine-rich nuclear export signals (NESs in the cargo proteins, and modulates nuclear-cytoplasmic protein shuttling by antagonizing the nuclear import activity mediated by importins and the nuclear import signal (NLS. Although the prediction of NESs can help to define proteins that undergo regulated nuclear export, current methods of predicting NESs, including computational tools and consensus-sequence-based searches, have limited accuracy, especially in terms of their specificity. We found that each residue within an NES largely contributes independently and additively to the entire nuclear export activity. We created activity-based profiles of all classes of NESs with a comprehensive mutational analysis in mammalian cells. The profiles highlight a number of specific activity-affecting residues not only at the conserved hydrophobic positions but also in the linker and flanking regions. We then developed a computational tool, NESmapper, to predict NESs by using profiles that had been further optimized by training and combining the amino acid properties of the NES-flanking regions. This tool successfully reduced the considerable number of false positives, and the overall prediction accuracy was higher than that of other methods, including NESsential and Wregex. This profile-based prediction strategy is a reliable way to identify functional protein motifs. NESmapper is available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/nesmapper.

  3. Pharmacy collected medication histories in an observation unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabrielle L Procopio

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clear processes to facilitate medication reconciliation in a hospital setting are still undefined. The observation unit allows for a high patient turnover rate, where obtaining accurate medication histories is critical. Objectives: The objective of this study was to assess the ability of pharmacists and student pharmacists to identify discrepancies in medication histories obtained at triage in observation patients. Methods: Pharmacists and student pharmacists obtained a medication history for each patient placed in observation status. Patients were excluded if they were unable to provide a medication history and family, caregiver, or community pharmacy was also unable to provide the history. A comparison was made between triage and pharmacy collected medication histories to identify discrepancies. Results: A total of 501 medications histories were collected, accounting for 3213 medication records. There were 1176 (37% matched medication records and 1467 discrepancies identified, including 808 (55% omissions, 296 (20.2% wrong frequency, 278 (19% wrong dose, 51 (3.5% discontinued, and 34 (2.3% wrong medication. There was an average of 2.9 discrepancies per patient profile. In all, 76 (15% of the profiles were matched. The median time to obtain a medication history was 4 min (range: 1–48 min. Conclusion: Pharmacy collected medication histories in an observation unit identify discrepancies that can be reconciled by the interdisciplinary team.

  4. Predictive powertrain control using powertrain history and GPS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weslati, Feisel; Krupadanam, Ashish A

    2015-03-03

    A method and powertrain apparatus that predicts a route of travel for a vehicle and uses historical powertrain loads and speeds for the predicted route of travel to optimize at least one powertrain operation for the vehicle.

  5. A Kinematic Model of Slow Slip Constrained by Tremor-Derived Slip Histories in Cascadia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, D. A.; Houston, H.

    2016-12-01

    We explore new ways to constrain the kinematic slip distributions for large slow slip events using constraints from tremor. Our goal is to prescribe one or more slip pulses that propagate across the fault and scale appropriately to satisfy the observations. Recent work (Houston, 2015) inferred a crude representative stress time history at an average point using the tidal stress history, the static stress drop, and the timing of the evolution of tidal sensitivity of tremor over several days of slip. To convert a stress time history into a slip time history, we use simulations to explore the stressing history of a small locked patch due to an approaching rupture front. We assume that the locked patch releases strain through a series of tremor bursts whose activity rate is related to the stressing history. To test whether the functional form of a slip pulse is reasonable, we assume a hypothetical slip time history (Ohnaka pulse) timed with the occurrence of tremor to create a rupture front that propagates along the fault. The duration of the rupture front for a fault patch is constrained by the observed tremor catalog for the 2010 ETS event. The slip amplitude is scaled appropriately to match the observed surface displacements from GPS. Through a forward simulation, we evaluate the ability of the tremor-derived slip history to accurately predict the pattern of surface displacements observed by GPS. We find that the temporal progression of surface displacements are well modeled by a 2-4 day slip pulse, suggesting that some of the longer duration of slip typically found in time-dependent GPS inversions is biased by the temporal smoothing. However, at some locations on the fault, the tremor lingers beyond the passage of the slip pulse. A small percentage (5-10%) of the tremor appears to be activated ahead of the approaching slip pulse, and tremor asperities experience a driving stress on the order of 10 kPa/day. Tremor amplitude, rather than just tremor counts, is needed

  6. Improved predictive modeling of white LEDs with accurate luminescence simulation and practical inputs with TracePro opto-mechanical design software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsao, Chao-hsi; Freniere, Edward R.; Smith, Linda

    2009-02-01

    The use of white LEDs for solid-state lighting to address applications in the automotive, architectural and general illumination markets is just emerging. LEDs promise greater energy efficiency and lower maintenance costs. However, there is a significant amount of design and cost optimization to be done while companies continue to improve semiconductor manufacturing processes and begin to apply more efficient and better color rendering luminescent materials such as phosphor and quantum dot nanomaterials. In the last decade, accurate and predictive opto-mechanical software modeling has enabled adherence to performance, consistency, cost, and aesthetic criteria without the cost and time associated with iterative hardware prototyping. More sophisticated models that include simulation of optical phenomenon, such as luminescence, promise to yield designs that are more predictive - giving design engineers and materials scientists more control over the design process to quickly reach optimum performance, manufacturability, and cost criteria. A design case study is presented where first, a phosphor formulation and excitation source are optimized for a white light. The phosphor formulation, the excitation source and other LED components are optically and mechanically modeled and ray traced. Finally, its performance is analyzed. A blue LED source is characterized by its relative spectral power distribution and angular intensity distribution. YAG:Ce phosphor is characterized by relative absorption, excitation and emission spectra, quantum efficiency and bulk absorption coefficient. Bulk scatter properties are characterized by wavelength dependent scatter coefficients, anisotropy and bulk absorption coefficient.

  7. Masculine norms, disclosure, and childhood adversities predict long-term mental distress among men with histories of child sexual abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easton, Scott D

    2014-02-01

    Child sexual abuse (CSA) can have a profound effect on the long-term mental health of boys/men. However, not all men with histories of CSA experience psychopathology. To improve prevention and intervention services, more research is needed to understand why some male survivors experience mental health problems and others do not. The purpose of this study was to examine factors related to mental distress among a large, non-clinical sample of men with histories of CSA (N=487). Using a cross-sectional design with purposive sampling from three national survivor organizations, data were collected through an anonymous Internet-based survey. Multivariate analyses found that only one of the four CSA severity variables-use of physical force by the abuser-was related to mental distress. Additional factors that were related to mental distress included the number of other childhood adversities, years until disclosure, overall response to disclosure, and conformity to masculine norms. Overall, the final model predicted 36% of the variance in the number of mental health symptoms. Mental health practitioners should include masculine norms, disclosure history, and childhood adversities in assessments and intervention planning with male survivors. To more fully explicate risk factors for psychopathology in this population, future studies with probability samples of men that focus on mediational processes and use longitudinal designs are needed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Predictive Manufacturing: A Classification Strategy to Predict Product Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Abdul Rauf; Schiøler, Henrik; Kulahci, Murat

    2018-01-01

    manufacturing analytics model that employs a big data approach to predicting product failures; third, we illustrate the issue of high dimensionality, along with statistically redundant information; and, finally, our proposed method will be compared against the well-known classification methods (SVM, K......-nearest neighbor, artificial neural networks). The results from real data show that our predictive manufacturing analytics approach, using genetic algorithms and Voronoi tessellations, is capable of predicting product failure with reasonable accuracy. The potential application of this method contributes...... to accurately predicting product failures, which would enable manufacturers to reduce production costs without compromising product quality....

  9. Computer-based personality judgments are more accurate than those made by humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youyou, Wu; Kosinski, Michal; Stillwell, David

    2015-01-27

    Judging others' personalities is an essential skill in successful social living, as personality is a key driver behind people's interactions, behaviors, and emotions. Although accurate personality judgments stem from social-cognitive skills, developments in machine learning show that computer models can also make valid judgments. This study compares the accuracy of human and computer-based personality judgments, using a sample of 86,220 volunteers who completed a 100-item personality questionnaire. We show that (i) computer predictions based on a generic digital footprint (Facebook Likes) are more accurate (r = 0.56) than those made by the participants' Facebook friends using a personality questionnaire (r = 0.49); (ii) computer models show higher interjudge agreement; and (iii) computer personality judgments have higher external validity when predicting life outcomes such as substance use, political attitudes, and physical health; for some outcomes, they even outperform the self-rated personality scores. Computers outpacing humans in personality judgment presents significant opportunities and challenges in the areas of psychological assessment, marketing, and privacy.

  10. A hybrid method for accurate star tracking using star sensor and gyros.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Jiazhen; Yang, Lie; Zhang, Hao

    2017-10-01

    Star tracking is the primary operating mode of star sensors. To improve tracking accuracy and efficiency, a hybrid method using a star sensor and gyroscopes is proposed in this study. In this method, the dynamic conditions of an aircraft are determined first by the estimated angular acceleration. Under low dynamic conditions, the star sensor is used to measure the star vector and the vector difference method is adopted to estimate the current angular velocity. Under high dynamic conditions, the angular velocity is obtained by the calibrated gyros. The star position is predicted based on the estimated angular velocity and calibrated gyros using the star vector measurements. The results of the semi-physical experiment show that this hybrid method is accurate and feasible. In contrast with the star vector difference and gyro-assisted methods, the star position prediction result of the hybrid method is verified to be more accurate in two different cases under the given random noise of the star centroid.

  11. Accurate Energies and Structures for Large Water Clusters Using the X3LYP Hybrid Density Functional

    OpenAIRE

    Su, Julius T.; Xu, Xin; Goddard, William A., III

    2004-01-01

    We predict structures and energies of water clusters containing up to 19 waters with X3LYP, an extended hybrid density functional designed to describe noncovalently bound systems as accurately as covalent systems. Our work establishes X3LYP as the most practical ab initio method today for calculating accurate water cluster structures and energies. We compare X3LYP/aug-cc-pVTZ energies to the most accurate theoretical values available (n = 2−6, 8), MP2 with basis set superposition error (BSSE)...

  12. Reconstruction of fire history of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sae-lim, J.; Mann, P. J.; Russell, J. M.; Natali, S.; Vachula, R. S.; Schade, J. D.; Holmes, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Wildfire is an important disturbance in Arctic ecosystems and can cause abrupt perturbations in global carbon cycling and atmospheric chemistry. Over the next few decades, arctic fire frequency, intensity and extent is projected to increase due to anthropogenic climate change, as regional air temperatures are increasing at more than twice the global average. In order to more accurately predict the anthropogenic impacts of climate change on tundra fire regimes, it is critical to have detailed knowledge of the natural frequency and extent of past wildfires. However, reliable historical records only extend back a few hundred years, whereas climatic shifts have affected fire regimes for thousands of years. In this work we analyzed a lake sediment core collected from the Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) Delta, Alaska, a region that has recently experienced fire and is predicted to see increasing fire frequency in the near future. Our primary lake site is situated adjacent to recent burned areas, providing a `calibration' point and also attesting to the sensitivity of the sites. We used charcoal counts alongside geochemical measurements (C:N, 13C, 15N, 210Pb, X-ray fluorescence analyses of elemental chemistry) to reconstruct past fire history and ecosystem responses during the late Holocene. Average C (%C) and N concentrations (%N) in the core were 8.10 ±0.74% and 0.48 ±0.05%, resulting in C:N ratios of 16.80 ±0.74. The values are generally stable, with no obvious trend in C, N or C:N with depth; however, fluctuations in sediment composition in other nearby lake sediment cores possibly suggests shifts in lake conditions (oxic, anoxic) over time that might result from paleofires. This study provides a baseline for estimated fire return intervals in the YK Delta that will support more accurate projections of tundra fire frequencies under a changing climate.

  13. Determination of Stress Histories in Structures by Natural Input Modal Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjelm, Henrik P.; Brincker, Rune; Graugaard-Jensen, Jesper

    2005-01-01

    In this paper it is shown that stress histories can be estimated with high accuracy by integrating measured accelerations to obtain displacement and then performing a modal decomposition of the so estimated displacements. The relation between the modal coordinate and the stress in an arbitrary....... It is shown that the so estimated stress histories can replace strain gauge measurements in many cases, and it allows for an accurate estimation of fatigue damage....

  14. Inverse and Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-27

    The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

  15. Albumin-Bilirubin and Platelet-Albumin-Bilirubin Grades Accurately Predict Overall Survival in High-Risk Patients Undergoing Conventional Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansmann, Jan; Evers, Maximilian J; Bui, James T; Lokken, R Peter; Lipnik, Andrew J; Gaba, Ron C; Ray, Charles E

    2017-09-01

    To evaluate albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) and platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) grades in predicting overall survival in high-risk patients undergoing conventional transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This single-center retrospective study included 180 high-risk patients (142 men, 59 y ± 9) between April 2007 and January 2015. Patients were considered high-risk based on laboratory abnormalities before the procedure (bilirubin > 2.0 mg/dL, albumin 1.2 mg/dL); presence of ascites, encephalopathy, portal vein thrombus, or transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt; or Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score > 15. Serum albumin, bilirubin, and platelet values were used to determine ALBI and PALBI grades. Overall survival was stratified by ALBI and PALBI grades with substratification by Child-Pugh class (CPC) and Barcelona Liver Clinic Cancer (BCLC) stage using Kaplan-Meier analysis. C-index was used to determine discriminatory ability and survival prediction accuracy. Median survival for 79 ALBI grade 2 patients and 101 ALBI grade 3 patients was 20.3 and 10.7 months, respectively (P  .05). ALBI and PALBI grades are accurate survival metrics in high-risk patients undergoing conventional transarterial chemoembolization for HCC. Use of these scores allows for more refined survival stratification within CPC and BCLC stage. Copyright © 2017 SIR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Exploring the knowledge behind predictions in everyday cognition: an iterated learning study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Rachel G; Dunn, John C; Rao, Li-Lin; Li, Shu

    2015-10-01

    Making accurate predictions about events is an important but difficult task. Recent work suggests that people are adept at this task, making predictions that reflect surprisingly accurate knowledge of the distributions of real quantities. Across three experiments, we used an iterated learning procedure to explore the basis of this knowledge: to what extent is domain experience critical to accurate predictions and how accurate are people when faced with unfamiliar domains? In Experiment 1, two groups of participants, one resident in Australia, the other in China, predicted the values of quantities familiar to both (movie run-times), unfamiliar to both (the lengths of Pharaoh reigns), and familiar to one but unfamiliar to the other (cake baking durations and the lengths of Beijing bus routes). While predictions from both groups were reasonably accurate overall, predictions were inaccurate in the selectively unfamiliar domains and, surprisingly, predictions by the China-resident group were also inaccurate for a highly familiar domain: local bus route lengths. Focusing on bus routes, two follow-up experiments with Australia-resident groups clarified the knowledge and strategies that people draw upon, plus important determinants of accurate predictions. For unfamiliar domains, people appear to rely on extrapolating from (not simply directly applying) related knowledge. However, we show that people's predictions are subject to two sources of error: in the estimation of quantities in a familiar domain and extension to plausible values in an unfamiliar domain. We propose that the key to successful predictions is not simply domain experience itself, but explicit experience of relevant quantities.

  17. Decoding Galactic Merger Histories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric F. Bell

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Galaxy mergers are expected to influence galaxy properties, yet measurements of individual merger histories are lacking. Models predict that merger histories can be measured using stellar halos and that these halos can be quantified using observations of resolved stars along their minor axis. Such observations reveal that Milky Way-mass galaxies have a wide range of stellar halo properties and show a correlation between their stellar halo masses and metallicities. This correlation agrees with merger-driven models where stellar halos are formed by satellite galaxy disruption. In these models, the largest accreted satellite dominates the stellar halo properties. Consequently, the observed diversity in the stellar halos of Milky Way-mass galaxies implies a large range in the masses of their largest merger partners. In particular, the Milky Way’s low mass halo implies an unusually quiet merger history. We used these measurements to seek predicted correlations between the bulge and central black hole (BH mass and the mass of the largest merger partner. We found no significant correlations: while some galaxies with large bulges and BHs have large stellar halos and thus experienced a major or minor merger, half have small stellar halos and never experienced a significant merger event. These results indicate that bulge and BH growth is not solely driven by merger-related processes.

  18. Can numerical simulations accurately predict hydrodynamic instabilities in liquid films?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denner, Fabian; Charogiannis, Alexandros; Pradas, Marc; van Wachem, Berend G. M.; Markides, Christos N.; Kalliadasis, Serafim

    2014-11-01

    Understanding the dynamics of hydrodynamic instabilities in liquid film flows is an active field of research in fluid dynamics and non-linear science in general. Numerical simulations offer a powerful tool to study hydrodynamic instabilities in film flows and can provide deep insights into the underlying physical phenomena. However, the direct comparison of numerical results and experimental results is often hampered by several reasons. For instance, in numerical simulations the interface representation is problematic and the governing equations and boundary conditions may be oversimplified, whereas in experiments it is often difficult to extract accurate information on the fluid and its behavior, e.g. determine the fluid properties when the liquid contains particles for PIV measurements. In this contribution we present the latest results of our on-going, extensive study on hydrodynamic instabilities in liquid film flows, which includes direct numerical simulations, low-dimensional modelling as well as experiments. The major focus is on wave regimes, wave height and wave celerity as a function of Reynolds number and forcing frequency of a falling liquid film. Specific attention is paid to the differences in numerical and experimental results and the reasons for these differences. The authors are grateful to the EPSRC for their financial support (Grant EP/K008595/1).

  19. Predicting beta-turns and their types using predicted backbone dihedral angles and secondary structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kountouris, Petros; Hirst, Jonathan D

    2010-07-31

    Beta-turns are secondary structure elements usually classified as coil. Their prediction is important, because of their role in protein folding and their frequent occurrence in protein chains. We have developed a novel method that predicts beta-turns and their types using information from multiple sequence alignments, predicted secondary structures and, for the first time, predicted dihedral angles. Our method uses support vector machines, a supervised classification technique, and is trained and tested on three established datasets of 426, 547 and 823 protein chains. We achieve a Matthews correlation coefficient of up to 0.49, when predicting the location of beta-turns, the highest reported value to date. Moreover, the additional dihedral information improves the prediction of beta-turn types I, II, IV, VIII and "non-specific", achieving correlation coefficients up to 0.39, 0.33, 0.27, 0.14 and 0.38, respectively. Our results are more accurate than other methods. We have created an accurate predictor of beta-turns and their types. Our method, called DEBT, is available online at http://comp.chem.nottingham.ac.uk/debt/.

  20. Rapid and accurate evaluation of the quality of commercial organic fertilizers using near infrared spectroscopy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Wang

    Full Text Available The composting industry has been growing rapidly in China because of a boom in the animal industry. Therefore, a rapid and accurate assessment of the quality of commercial organic fertilizers is of the utmost importance. In this study, a novel technique that combines near infrared (NIR spectroscopy with partial least squares (PLS analysis is developed for rapidly and accurately assessing commercial organic fertilizers quality. A total of 104 commercial organic fertilizers were collected from full-scale compost factories in Jiangsu Province, east China. In general, the NIR-PLS technique showed accurate predictions of the total organic matter, water soluble organic nitrogen, pH, and germination index; less accurate results of the moisture, total nitrogen, and electrical conductivity; and the least accurate results for water soluble organic carbon. Our results suggested the combined NIR-PLS technique could be applied as a valuable tool to rapidly and accurately assess the quality of commercial organic fertilizers.

  1. Rapid and accurate evaluation of the quality of commercial organic fertilizers using near infrared spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chang; Huang, Chichao; Qian, Jian; Xiao, Jian; Li, Huan; Wen, Yongli; He, Xinhua; Ran, Wei; Shen, Qirong; Yu, Guanghui

    2014-01-01

    The composting industry has been growing rapidly in China because of a boom in the animal industry. Therefore, a rapid and accurate assessment of the quality of commercial organic fertilizers is of the utmost importance. In this study, a novel technique that combines near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy with partial least squares (PLS) analysis is developed for rapidly and accurately assessing commercial organic fertilizers quality. A total of 104 commercial organic fertilizers were collected from full-scale compost factories in Jiangsu Province, east China. In general, the NIR-PLS technique showed accurate predictions of the total organic matter, water soluble organic nitrogen, pH, and germination index; less accurate results of the moisture, total nitrogen, and electrical conductivity; and the least accurate results for water soluble organic carbon. Our results suggested the combined NIR-PLS technique could be applied as a valuable tool to rapidly and accurately assess the quality of commercial organic fertilizers.

  2. Limitations of the condensed history method for low-energy electrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, W.R.; Ballinger, C.T.; Rathkopf, J.A.

    1991-01-01

    A systematic evaluation of the conventional, condensed history electron transport methodology has been performed through comparisons with more accurate single-scatter Monte Carlo calculations. These comparisons highlight the inaccuracies associated with the condensed history method and indicate its range of validity. The condensed history method is used in codes such as MCNP4, SANDYL, ETRAN, ITS, and EGS and requires a number of restrictive assumptions about the scattering characteristics to make tractable the analytical solution to the infinite-medium transport equation. Distributions describing electron characteristics after multiple collisions (multiscatter distributions) are constructed from such solutions and serve as the heart of the condensed history codes. A two-level approach is taken to quantify the errors inherent in condensed history. First, conventional condensed history multiscattering distributions in energy and angle are compared directly with analogous distributions generated with a single-scatter Monte Carlo code. This recently developed code directly simulates individual electron interactions. Second, the conventional distributions are replaced in the condensed history code by distributions constructed via a single-scatter Monte Carlo simulation

  3. Childhood asthma-predictive phenotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guilbert, Theresa W; Mauger, David T; Lemanske, Robert F

    2014-01-01

    Wheezing is a fairly common symptom in early childhood, but only some of these toddlers will experience continued wheezing symptoms in later childhood. The definition of the asthma-predictive phenotype is in children with frequent, recurrent wheezing in early life who have risk factors associated with the continuation of asthma symptoms in later life. Several asthma-predictive phenotypes were developed retrospectively based on large, longitudinal cohort studies; however, it can be difficult to differentiate these phenotypes clinically as the expression of symptoms, and risk factors can change with time. Genetic, environmental, developmental, and host factors and their interactions may contribute to the development, severity, and persistence of the asthma phenotype over time. Key characteristics that distinguish the childhood asthma-predictive phenotype include the following: male sex; a history of wheezing, with lower respiratory tract infections; history of parental asthma; history of atopic dermatitis; eosinophilia; early sensitization to food or aeroallergens; or lower lung function in early life. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Mini-review: history of organized teratology information services in North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leen-Mitchell, M; Martinez, L; Gallegos, S; Robertson, J; Carey, J C

    2000-04-01

    A history of the Organization of Teratology Information Services (OTIS) is presented in context of the history of teratology information services. During the late 1970s, teratology information services grew out of the need for current and accurate information about fetal effects of environmental exposures in pregnancy. Over the next decade, teratology information services networked and collaborated, developing their own professional organization. A description of the activities of OTIS is described. Copyright 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  5. Calorimetry end-point predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fox, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    This paper describes a portion of the work presently in progress at Rocky Flats in the field of calorimetry. In particular, calorimetry end-point predictions are outlined. The problems associated with end-point predictions and the progress made in overcoming these obstacles are discussed. The two major problems, noise and an accurate description of the heat function, are dealt with to obtain the most accurate results. Data are taken from an actual calorimeter and are processed by means of three different noise reduction techniques. The processed data are then utilized by one to four algorithms, depending on the accuracy desired to determined the end-point

  6. Large arterial occlusive strokes as a medical emergency: need to accurately predict clot location.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanacker, Peter; Faouzi, Mohamed; Eskandari, Ashraf; Maeder, Philippe; Meuli, Reto; Michel, Patrik

    2017-10-01

    Endovascular treatment for acute ischemic stroke with a large intracranial occlusion was recently shown to be effective. Timely knowledge of the presence, site, and extent of arterial occlusions in the ischemic territory has the potential to influence patient selection for endovascular treatment. We aimed to find predictors of large vessel occlusive strokes, on the basis of available demographic, clinical, radiological, and laboratory data in the emergency setting. Patients enrolled in ASTRAL registry with acute ischemic stroke and computed tomography (CT)-angiography within 12 h of stroke onset were selected and categorized according to occlusion site. Easily accessible variables were used in a multivariate analysis. Of 1645 patients enrolled, a significant proportion (46.2%) had a large vessel occlusion in the ischemic territory. The main clinical predictors of any arterial occlusion were in-hospital stroke [odd ratios (OR) 2.1, 95% confidence interval 1.4-3.1], higher initial National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (OR 1.1, 1.1-1.2), presence of visual field defects (OR 1.9, 1.3-2.6), dysarthria (OR 1.4, 1.0-1.9), or hemineglect (OR 2.0, 1.4-2.8) at admission and atrial fibrillation (OR 1.7, 1.2-2.3). Further, the following radiological predictors were identified: time-to-imaging (OR 0.9, 0.9-1.0), early ischemic changes (OR 2.3, 1.7-3.2), and silent lesions on CT (OR 0.7, 0.5-1.0). The area under curve for this analysis was 0.85. Looking at different occlusion sites, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale and early ischemic changes on CT were independent predictors in all subgroups. Neurological deficits, stroke risk factors, and CT findings accurately identify acute ischemic stroke patients at risk of symptomatic vessel occlusion. Predicting the presence of these occlusions may impact emergency stroke care in regions with limited access to noninvasive vascular imaging.

  7. Comparative utility of the BESTest, mini-BESTest, and brief-BESTest for predicting falls in individuals with Parkinson disease: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Ryan P; Leddy, Abigail L; Cavanaugh, James T; Dibble, Leland E; Ellis, Terry D; Ford, Matthew P; Foreman, K Bo; Earhart, Gammon M

    2013-04-01

    The newly developed brief-balance evaluation system test (brief-BESTest) may be useful for measuring balance and predicting falls in individuals with Parkinson disease (PD). The purposes of this study were: (1) to describe the balance performance of those with PD using the brief-BESTest, (2) to determine the relationships among the scores derived from the 3 versions of the BESTest (i.e., full BESTest, mini-BESTest, and brief-BESTest), and (3) to compare the accuracy of the brief-BESTest with that of the mini-BESTest and BESTest in identifying recurrent fallers among people with PD. This was a prospective cohort study. Eighty participants with PD completed a baseline balance assessment. All participants reported a fall history during the previous 6 months. Fall history was again collected 6 months (n=51) and 12 months (n=40) later. At baseline, participants had varying levels of balance impairment, and brief-BESTest scores were significantly correlated with mini-BESTest (r=.94, PBrief-BESTest was moderately high (area under the curve [AUC]=0.82, sensitivity=0.76, and specificity=0.84). Prospective fall prediction accuracy over 6 months was similarly accurate (AUC=0.88, sensitivity=0.71, and specificity=0.87), but was less sensitive over 12 months (AUC=0.76, sensitivity=0.53, and specificity=0.93). The sample included primarily individuals with mild to moderate PD. Also, there was a moderate dropout rate at 6 and 12 months. All versions of the BESTest were reasonably accurate in identifying future recurrent fallers, especially during the 6 months following assessment. Clinicians can reasonably rely on the brief-BESTest for predicting falls, particularly when time and equipment constraints are of concern.

  8. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Lundholm

    Full Text Available Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that

  9. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundholm, Jeremy; Heim, Amy; Tran, Stephanie; Smith, Tyler

    2014-01-01

    Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth) to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies) for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that favor less

  10. Remaining dischargeable time prediction for lithium-ion batteries using unscented Kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Guangzhong; Wei, Jingwen; Chen, Zonghai; Sun, Han; Yu, Xiaowei

    2017-10-01

    To overcome the range anxiety, one of the important strategies is to accurately predict the range or dischargeable time of the battery system. To accurately predict the remaining dischargeable time (RDT) of a battery, a RDT prediction framework based on accurate battery modeling and state estimation is presented in this paper. Firstly, a simplified linearized equivalent-circuit-model is developed to simulate the dynamic characteristics of a battery. Then, an online recursive least-square-algorithm method and unscented-Kalman-filter are employed to estimate the system matrices and SOC at every prediction point. Besides, a discrete wavelet transform technique is employed to capture the statistical information of past dynamics of input currents, which are utilized to predict the future battery currents. Finally, the RDT can be predicted based on the battery model, SOC estimation results and predicted future battery currents. The performance of the proposed methodology has been verified by a lithium-ion battery cell. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method can provide an accurate SOC and parameter estimation and the predicted RDT can solve the range anxiety issues.

  11. Host responses in life-history traits and tolerance to virus infection in Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israel Pagán

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Knowing how hosts respond to parasite infection is paramount in understanding the effects of parasites on host populations and hence host-parasite co-evolution. Modification of life-history traits in response to parasitism has received less attention than other defence strategies. Life-history theory predicts that parasitised hosts will increase reproductive effort and accelerate reproduction. However, empirical analyses of these predictions are few and mostly limited to animal-parasite systems. We have analysed life-history trait responses in 18 accessions of Arabidopsis thaliana infected at two different developmental stages with three strains of Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV. Accessions were divided into two groups according to allometric relationships; these groups differed also in their tolerance to CMV infection. Life-history trait modification upon virus infection depended on the host genotype and the stage at infection. While all accessions delayed flowering, only the more tolerant allometric group modified resource allocation to increase the production of reproductive structures and progeny, and reduced the length of reproductive period. Our results are in agreement with modifications of life-history traits reported for parasitised animals and with predictions from life-history theory. Thus, we provide empirical support for the general validity of theoretical predictions. In addition, this experimental approach allowed us to quantitatively estimate the genetic determinism of life-history trait plasticity and to evaluate the role of life-history trait modification in defence against parasites, two largely unexplored issues.

  12. Life history theory and breast cancer risk: methodological and theoretical challenges: Response to "Is estrogen receptor negative breast cancer risk associated with a fast life history strategy?".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aktipis, Athena

    2016-01-01

    In a meta-analysis published by myself and co-authors, we report differences in the life history risk factors for estrogen receptor negative (ER-) and estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancers. Our meta-analysis did not find the association of ER- breast cancer risk with fast life history characteristics that Hidaka and Boddy suggest in their response to our article. There are a number of possible explanations for the differences between their conclusions and the conclusions we drew from our meta-analysis, including limitations of our meta-analysis and methodological challenges in measuring and categorizing estrogen receptor status. These challenges, along with the association of ER+ breast cancer with slow life history characteristics, may make it challenging to find a clear signal of ER- breast cancer with fast life history characteristics, even if that relationship does exist. The contradictory results regarding breast cancer risk and life history characteristics illustrate a more general challenge in evolutionary medicine: often different sub-theories in evolutionary biology make contradictory predictions about disease risk. In this case, life history models predict that breast cancer risk should increase with faster life history characteristics, while the evolutionary mismatch hypothesis predicts that breast cancer risk should increase with delayed reproduction. Whether life history tradeoffs contribute to ER- breast cancer is still an open question, but current models and several lines of evidence suggest that it is a possibility. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Foundation for Evolution, Medicine, and Public Health.

  13. Eliciting comprehensive medication histories in the emergency department: the role of the pharmacist.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crook M

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The Australian Pharmaceutical Advisory Committee guidelines call for a detailed medication history to be taken at the first point of admission to hospital. Accurate medication histories are vital in optimising health outcomes and have been shown to reduce mortality rates. This study aimed to examine the accuracy of medication histories taken in the Emergency Department of the Royal Adelaide Hospital. Medication histories recorded by medical staff were compared to those elicited by a pharmacy researcher. The study, conducted over a six-week period, included 100 patients over the age of 70, who took five or more regular medications, had three or more clinical co-morbidities and/or had been discharged from hospital in three months prior to the study. Following patient interviews, the researcher contacted the patient’s pharmacist and GP for confirmation and completion of the medication history. Out of the 1152 medications recorded as being used by the 100 patients, discrepancies were found for 966 medications (83.9%. There were 563 (48.9% complete omissions of medications. The most common discrepancies were incomplete or omitted dosage and frequency information. Discrepancies were mostly medications that treated dermatological and ear, nose and throat disorders but approximately 29% were used to treat cardiovascular disorders. This study provides support for the presence of an Emergency Department pharmacist who can compile a comprehensive and accurate medication history to enhance medication management along the continuum of care. It is recommended that the patient’s community pharmacy and GP be contacted for clarification and confirmation of the medication history.

  14. Family history predicts major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in young adults with psoriasis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Egeberg, Alexander; Bruun, Louise E; Mallbris, Lotus

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Patients with psoriasis may have increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular (CV) events (MACE), and a family history of CV disease (CVD) is an independent risk factor for MACE. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the risk of first-time MACE in patients with psoriasis with or without a fami....... The findings call for increased focus on a family history of CVD in CV risk assessment of patients with psoriasis.......BACKGROUND: Patients with psoriasis may have increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular (CV) events (MACE), and a family history of CV disease (CVD) is an independent risk factor for MACE. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the risk of first-time MACE in patients with psoriasis with or without a family...... history of CVD. METHODS: Between January 1, 1997, and December 31, 2011, we identified 2,722,375 individuals, including 25,774 and 4504 patients with mild and severe psoriasis, through administrative registers. Incidence rate ratios were estimated by Poisson regression. RESULTS: Mean baseline age was 26...

  15. Fast-slow continuum and reproductive strategies structure plant life-history variation worldwide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Jones, Owen R; Jongejans, Eelke

    2016-01-01

    The identification of patterns in life-history strategies across the tree of life is essential to our prediction of population persistence, extinction, and diversification. Plants exhibit a wide range of patterns of longevity, growth, and reproduction, but the general determinants of this enormous...... variation in life history are poorly understood. We use demographic data from 418 plant species in the wild, from annual herbs to supercentennial trees, to examine how growth form, habitat, and phylogenetic relationships structure plant life histories and to develop a framework to predict population...

  16. High-order accurate numerical algorithm for three-dimensional transport prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pepper, D W [Savannah River Lab., Aiken, SC; Baker, A J

    1980-01-01

    The numerical solution of the three-dimensional pollutant transport equation is obtained with the method of fractional steps; advection is solved by the method of moments and diffusion by cubic splines. Topography and variable mesh spacing are accounted for with coordinate transformations. First estimate wind fields are obtained by interpolation to grid points surrounding specific data locations. Numerical results agree with results obtained from analytical Gaussian plume relations for ideal conditions. The numerical model is used to simulate the transport of tritium released from the Savannah River Plant on 2 May 1974. Predicted ground level air concentration 56 km from the release point is within 38% of the experimentally measured value.

  17. Accurate SHAPE-directed RNA secondary structure modeling, including pseudoknots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajdin, Christine E; Bellaousov, Stanislav; Huggins, Wayne; Leonard, Christopher W; Mathews, David H; Weeks, Kevin M

    2013-04-02

    A pseudoknot forms in an RNA when nucleotides in a loop pair with a region outside the helices that close the loop. Pseudoknots occur relatively rarely in RNA but are highly overrepresented in functionally critical motifs in large catalytic RNAs, in riboswitches, and in regulatory elements of viruses. Pseudoknots are usually excluded from RNA structure prediction algorithms. When included, these pairings are difficult to model accurately, especially in large RNAs, because allowing this structure dramatically increases the number of possible incorrect folds and because it is difficult to search the fold space for an optimal structure. We have developed a concise secondary structure modeling approach that combines SHAPE (selective 2'-hydroxyl acylation analyzed by primer extension) experimental chemical probing information and a simple, but robust, energy model for the entropic cost of single pseudoknot formation. Structures are predicted with iterative refinement, using a dynamic programming algorithm. This melded experimental and thermodynamic energy function predicted the secondary structures and the pseudoknots for a set of 21 challenging RNAs of known structure ranging in size from 34 to 530 nt. On average, 93% of known base pairs were predicted, and all pseudoknots in well-folded RNAs were identified.

  18. The economic value of accurate wind power forecasting to utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, S J [Rutherford Appleton Lab., Oxfordshire (United Kingdom); Giebel, G; Joensen, A [Risoe National Lab., Dept. of Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics, Roskilde (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    With increasing penetrations of wind power, the need for accurate forecasting is becoming ever more important. Wind power is by its very nature intermittent. For utility schedulers this presents its own problems particularly when the penetration of wind power capacity in a grid reaches a significant level (>20%). However, using accurate forecasts of wind power at wind farm sites, schedulers are able to plan the operation of conventional power capacity to accommodate the fluctuating demands of consumers and wind farm output. The results of a study to assess the value of forecasting at several potential wind farm sites in the UK and in the US state of Iowa using the Reading University/Rutherford Appleton Laboratory National Grid Model (NGM) are presented. The results are assessed for different types of wind power forecasting, namely: persistence, optimised numerical weather prediction or perfect forecasting. In particular, it will shown how the NGM has been used to assess the value of numerical weather prediction forecasts from the Danish Meteorological Institute model, HIRLAM, and the US Nested Grid Model, which have been `site tailored` by the use of the linearized flow model WA{sup s}P and by various Model output Statistics (MOS) and autoregressive techniques. (au)

  19. Clonality and evolutionary history of rhabdomyosarcoma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Chen

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available To infer the subclonality of rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS and predict the temporal order of genetic events for the tumorigenic process, and to identify novel drivers, we applied a systematic method that takes into account germline and somatic alterations in 44 tumor-normal RMS pairs using deep whole-genome sequencing. Intriguingly, we find that loss of heterozygosity of 11p15.5 and mutations in RAS pathway genes occur early in the evolutionary history of the PAX-fusion-negative-RMS (PFN-RMS subtype. We discover several early mutations in non-RAS mutated samples and predict them to be drivers in PFN-RMS including recurrent mutation of PKN1. In contrast, we find that PAX-fusion-positive (PFP subtype tumors have undergone whole-genome duplication in the late stage of cancer evolutionary history and have acquired fewer mutations and subclones than PFN-RMS. Moreover we predict that the PAX3-FOXO1 fusion event occurs earlier than the whole genome duplication. Our findings provide information critical to the understanding of tumorigenesis of RMS.

  20. History matching and parameter estimation of surface deformation data for a CO2 sequestration field project using ensemble-based algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ping, J.; Tavakoli, R.; Min, B.; Srinivasan, S.; Wheeler, M. F.

    2015-12-01

    Optimal management of subsurface processes requires the characterization of the uncertainty in reservoir description and reservoir performance prediction. The application of ensemble-based algorithms for history matching reservoir models has been steadily increasing over the past decade. However, the majority of implementations in the reservoir engineering have dealt only with production history matching. During geologic sequestration, the injection of large quantities of CO2 into the subsurface may alter the stress/strain field which in turn can lead to surface uplift or subsidence. Therefore, it is essential to couple multiphase flow and geomechanical response in order to predict and quantify the uncertainty of CO2 plume movement for long-term, large-scale CO2 sequestration projects. In this work, we simulate and estimate the properties of a reservoir that is being used to store CO2 as part of the In Salah Capture and Storage project in Algeria. The CO2 is separated from produced natural gas and is re-injected into downdip aquifer portion of the field from three long horizontal wells. The field observation data includes ground surface deformations (uplift) measured using satellite-based radar (InSAR), injection well locations and CO2 injection rate histories provided by the operators. We implement ensemble-based algorithms for assimilating both injection rate data as well as geomechanical observations (surface uplift) into reservoir model. The preliminary estimation results of horizontal permeability and material properties such as Young Modulus and Poisson Ratio are consistent with available measurements and previous studies in this field. Moreover, the existence of high-permeability channels/fractures within the reservoir; especially in the regions around the injection wells are confirmed. This estimation results can be used to accurately and efficiently predict and monitor the movement of CO2 plume.

  1. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  2. Accurate van der Waals force field for gas adsorption in porous materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Lei; Yang, Li; Zhang, Ya-Dong; Shi, Qi; Lu, Rui-Feng; Deng, Wei-Qiao

    2017-09-05

    An accurate van der Waals force field (VDW FF) was derived from highly precise quantum mechanical (QM) calculations. Small molecular clusters were used to explore van der Waals interactions between gas molecules and porous materials. The parameters of the accurate van der Waals force field were determined by QM calculations. To validate the force field, the prediction results from the VDW FF were compared with standard FFs, such as UFF, Dreiding, Pcff, and Compass. The results from the VDW FF were in excellent agreement with the experimental measurements. This force field can be applied to the prediction of the gas density (H 2 , CO 2 , C 2 H 4 , CH 4 , N 2 , O 2 ) and adsorption performance inside porous materials, such as covalent organic frameworks (COFs), zeolites and metal organic frameworks (MOFs), consisting of H, B, N, C, O, S, Si, Al, Zn, Mg, Ni, and Co. This work provides a solid basis for studying gas adsorption in porous materials. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Computer-based personality judgments are more accurate than those made by humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youyou, Wu; Kosinski, Michal; Stillwell, David

    2015-01-01

    Judging others’ personalities is an essential skill in successful social living, as personality is a key driver behind people’s interactions, behaviors, and emotions. Although accurate personality judgments stem from social-cognitive skills, developments in machine learning show that computer models can also make valid judgments. This study compares the accuracy of human and computer-based personality judgments, using a sample of 86,220 volunteers who completed a 100-item personality questionnaire. We show that (i) computer predictions based on a generic digital footprint (Facebook Likes) are more accurate (r = 0.56) than those made by the participants’ Facebook friends using a personality questionnaire (r = 0.49); (ii) computer models show higher interjudge agreement; and (iii) computer personality judgments have higher external validity when predicting life outcomes such as substance use, political attitudes, and physical health; for some outcomes, they even outperform the self-rated personality scores. Computers outpacing humans in personality judgment presents significant opportunities and challenges in the areas of psychological assessment, marketing, and privacy. PMID:25583507

  4. Fast and accurate covalent bond predictions using perturbation theory in chemical space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Kuang-Yu; von Lilienfeld, Anatole

    I will discuss the predictive accuracy of perturbation theory based estimates of changes in covalent bonding due to linear alchemical interpolations among systems of different chemical composition. We have investigated single, double, and triple bonds occurring in small sets of iso-valence-electronic molecular species with elements drawn from second to fourth rows in the p-block of the periodic table. Numerical evidence suggests that first order estimates of covalent bonding potentials can achieve chemical accuracy (within 1 kcal/mol) if the alchemical interpolation is vertical (fixed geometry) among chemical elements from third and fourth row of the periodic table. When applied to nonbonded systems of molecular dimers or solids such as III-V semiconductors, alanates, alkali halides, and transition metals, similar observations hold, enabling rapid predictions of van der Waals energies, defect energies, band-structures, crystal structures, and lattice constants.

  5. The prognostic value of family history among patients with urinary bladder cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egbers, Lieke; Grotenhuis, Anne J; Aben, Katja K; Alfred Witjes, J; Kiemeney, Lambertus A; Vermeulen, Sita H

    2015-03-01

    A history of urinary bladder cancer (UBC) in first-degree relatives increases UBC risk by twofold. The influence of positive family history on UBC prognosis is unknown. Here, we investigated association of first-degree UBC family history with clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis of UBC patients. Detailed clinical data of 1,465 non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) and 250 muscle-invasive or metastatic bladder cancer (MIBC) patients, diagnosed from 1995 to 2010, were collected through medical file review. Competing risk analyses were used to compare recurrence-free survival (RFS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of NMIBC patients according to self-reported UBC family history. Overall survival in MIBC patients was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. The added value of family history in prediction of NMIBC prognosis was quantified with Harrell's concordance-index. Hundred (6.8%) NMIBC and 14 (5.6%) MIBC patients reported UBC in first-degree relatives. Positive family history was statistically significantly associated with smaller tumor size and non-significantly with more favorable distribution of other tumor characteristics. In univariable analyses, positive family history correlated with longer RFS (p = 0.11) and PFS (p = 0.04). Hazard ratios for positive vs. negative family history after adjustment for clinicopathological characteristics were 0.75 (95% CI = 0.53-1.07) and 0.45 (95% CI = 0.18-1.12) for RFS and PFS, respectively. Five familial and 48 sporadic MIBC patients (Kaplan-Meier 10-year risk: 41% and 25%) died within 10 years. Family history did not improve the c-index of prediction models. This study shows that a first-degree family history of UBC is not clearly associated with NMIBC prognosis. Family history does not aid in prediction of NMIBC recurrence or progression. © 2014 The Authors. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of UICC.

  6. Predictive value of diminutive colonic adenoma trial: the PREDICT trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoenfeld, Philip; Shad, Javaid; Ormseth, Eric; Coyle, Walter; Cash, Brooks; Butler, James; Schindler, William; Kikendall, Walter J; Furlong, Christopher; Sobin, Leslie H; Hobbs, Christine M; Cruess, David; Rex, Douglas

    2003-05-01

    Diminutive adenomas (1-9 mm in diameter) are frequently found during colon cancer screening with flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS). This trial assessed the predictive value of these diminutive adenomas for advanced adenomas in the proximal colon. In a multicenter, prospective cohort trial, we matched 200 patients with normal FS and 200 patients with diminutive adenomas on FS for age and gender. All patients underwent colonoscopy. The presence of advanced adenomas (adenoma >or= 10 mm in diameter, villous adenoma, adenoma with high grade dysplasia, and colon cancer) and adenomas (any size) was recorded. Before colonoscopy, patients completed questionnaires about risk factors for adenomas. The prevalence of advanced adenomas in the proximal colon was similar in patients with diminutive adenomas and patients with normal FS (6% vs. 5.5%, respectively) (relative risk, 1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.5-2.6). Diminutive adenomas on FS did not accurately predict advanced adenomas in the proximal colon: sensitivity, 52% (95% CI, 32%-72%); specificity, 50% (95% CI, 49%-51%); positive predictive value, 6% (95% CI, 4%-8%); and negative predictive value, 95% (95% CI, 92%-97%). Male gender (odds ratio, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.01-2.61) was associated with an increased risk of proximal colon adenomas. Diminutive adenomas on sigmoidoscopy may not accurately predict advanced adenomas in the proximal colon.

  7. [Establishment of A Clinical Prediction Model of Prolonged Air Leak 
after Anatomic Lung Resection].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xianning; Xu, Shibin; Ke, Li; Fan, Jun; Wang, Jun; Xie, Mingran; Jiang, Xianliang; Xu, Meiqing

    2017-12-20

    Prolonged air leak (PAL) after anatomic lung resection is a common and challenging complication in thoracic surgery. No available clinical prediction model of PAL has been established in China. The aim of this study was to construct a model to identify patients at increased risk of PAL by using preoperative factors exclusively. We retrospectively reviewed clinical data and PAL occurrence of patients after anatomic lung resection, in department of thoracic surgery, Anhui Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Anhui Medical University, from January 2016 to October 2016. 359 patients were in group A, clinical data including age, body mass index (BMI), gender, smoking history, surgical methods, pulmonary function index, pleural adhesion, pathologic diagnosis, side and site of resected lung were analyzed. By using univariate and multivariate analysis, we found the independent predictors of PAL after anatomic lung resection and subsequently established a clinical prediction model. Then, another 112 patients (group B), who underwent anatomic lung resection in different time by different team, were chosen to verify the accuracy of the prediction model. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed using the prediction model. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to identify six clinical characteristics [BMI, gender, smoking history, forced expiratory volume in one second to forced vital capacity ratio (FEV1%), pleural adhesion, site of resection] as independent predictors of PAL after anatomic lung resection. The area under the ROC curve for our model was 0.886 (95%CI: 0.835-0.937). The best predictive P value was 0.299 with sensitivity of 78.5% and specificity of 93.2%. Our prediction model could accurately identify occurrence risk of PAL in patients after anatomic lung resection, which might allow for more effective use of intraoperative prophylactic strategies.
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  8. Genome-Scale Metabolic Model for the Green Alga Chlorella vulgaris UTEX 395 Accurately Predicts Phenotypes under Autotrophic, Heterotrophic, and Mixotrophic Growth Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuñiga, Cristal; Li, Chien-Ting; Huelsman, Tyler; Levering, Jennifer; Zielinski, Daniel C; McConnell, Brian O; Long, Christopher P; Knoshaug, Eric P; Guarnieri, Michael T; Antoniewicz, Maciek R; Betenbaugh, Michael J; Zengler, Karsten

    2016-09-01

    The green microalga Chlorella vulgaris has been widely recognized as a promising candidate for biofuel production due to its ability to store high lipid content and its natural metabolic versatility. Compartmentalized genome-scale metabolic models constructed from genome sequences enable quantitative insight into the transport and metabolism of compounds within a target organism. These metabolic models have long been utilized to generate optimized design strategies for an improved production process. Here, we describe the reconstruction, validation, and application of a genome-scale metabolic model for C. vulgaris UTEX 395, iCZ843. The reconstruction represents the most comprehensive model for any eukaryotic photosynthetic organism to date, based on the genome size and number of genes in the reconstruction. The highly curated model accurately predicts phenotypes under photoautotrophic, heterotrophic, and mixotrophic conditions. The model was validated against experimental data and lays the foundation for model-driven strain design and medium alteration to improve yield. Calculated flux distributions under different trophic conditions show that a number of key pathways are affected by nitrogen starvation conditions, including central carbon metabolism and amino acid, nucleotide, and pigment biosynthetic pathways. Furthermore, model prediction of growth rates under various medium compositions and subsequent experimental validation showed an increased growth rate with the addition of tryptophan and methionine. © 2016 American Society of Plant Biologists. All rights reserved.

  9. Wind prediction in Malaysia using Mycielski-1 approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S. W.; Kok, B. C.; Goh, K. C.; Goh, H. H.

    2012-11-01

    In this paper, the wind speed prediction in Kudat, Malaysia had been done by using Mycielski-1 approach. There is some improvement in obtaining the random number of Mycielski-1. The wind prediction is important to study a favorable site's wind potential. The prediction is based on 3 years history data provided by Meteorology Department of Malaysia and 1 year data as the reference to check the accuracy of this algorithm. The basic concept of this algorithm is to predict the next value by looking to history data. The result shows the prediction of Mycielski-1 algorithm is promising. The wind speed is predicted in order to obtain the mean power for energy planning.

  10. Accurate prediction of retention in hydrophilic interaction chromatography by back calculation of high pressure liquid chromatography gradient profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Nu; Boswell, Paul G

    2017-10-20

    Gradient retention times are difficult to project from the underlying retention factor (k) vs. solvent composition (φ) relationships. A major reason for this difficulty is that gradients produced by HPLC pumps are imperfect - gradient delay, gradient dispersion, and solvent mis-proportioning are all difficult to account for in calculations. However, we recently showed that a gradient "back-calculation" methodology can measure these imperfections and take them into account. In RPLC, when the back-calculation methodology was used, error in projected gradient retention times is as low as could be expected based on repeatability in the k vs. φ relationships. HILIC, however, presents a new challenge: the selectivity of HILIC columns drift strongly over time. Retention is repeatable in short time, but selectivity frequently drifts over the course of weeks. In this study, we set out to understand if the issue of selectivity drift can be avoid by doing our experiments quickly, and if there any other factors that make it difficult to predict gradient retention times from isocratic k vs. φ relationships when gradient imperfections are taken into account with the back-calculation methodology. While in past reports, the accuracy of retention projections was >5%, the back-calculation methodology brought our error down to ∼1%. This result was 6-43 times more accurate than projections made using ideal gradients and 3-5 times more accurate than the same retention projections made using offset gradients (i.e., gradients that only took gradient delay into account). Still, the error remained higher in our HILIC projections than in RPLC. Based on the shape of the back-calculated gradients, we suspect the higher error is a result of prominent gradient distortion caused by strong, preferential water uptake from the mobile phase into the stationary phase during the gradient - a factor our model did not properly take into account. It appears that, at least with the stationary phase

  11. Genome-Scale Metabolic Model for the Green Alga Chlorella vulgaris UTEX 395 Accurately Predicts Phenotypes under Autotrophic, Heterotrophic, and Mixotrophic Growth Conditions1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuñiga, Cristal; Li, Chien-Ting; Zielinski, Daniel C.; Guarnieri, Michael T.; Antoniewicz, Maciek R.; Zengler, Karsten

    2016-01-01

    The green microalga Chlorella vulgaris has been widely recognized as a promising candidate for biofuel production due to its ability to store high lipid content and its natural metabolic versatility. Compartmentalized genome-scale metabolic models constructed from genome sequences enable quantitative insight into the transport and metabolism of compounds within a target organism. These metabolic models have long been utilized to generate optimized design strategies for an improved production process. Here, we describe the reconstruction, validation, and application of a genome-scale metabolic model for C. vulgaris UTEX 395, iCZ843. The reconstruction represents the most comprehensive model for any eukaryotic photosynthetic organism to date, based on the genome size and number of genes in the reconstruction. The highly curated model accurately predicts phenotypes under photoautotrophic, heterotrophic, and mixotrophic conditions. The model was validated against experimental data and lays the foundation for model-driven strain design and medium alteration to improve yield. Calculated flux distributions under different trophic conditions show that a number of key pathways are affected by nitrogen starvation conditions, including central carbon metabolism and amino acid, nucleotide, and pigment biosynthetic pathways. Furthermore, model prediction of growth rates under various medium compositions and subsequent experimental validation showed an increased growth rate with the addition of tryptophan and methionine. PMID:27372244

  12. Predicting changes in hypertension control using electronic health records from a chronic disease management program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jimeng; McNaughton, Candace D; Zhang, Ping; Perer, Adam; Gkoulalas-Divanis, Aris; Denny, Joshua C; Kirby, Jacqueline; Lasko, Thomas; Saip, Alexander; Malin, Bradley A

    2014-01-01

    Common chronic diseases such as hypertension are costly and difficult to manage. Our ultimate goal is to use data from electronic health records to predict the risk and timing of deterioration in hypertension control. Towards this goal, this work predicts the transition points at which hypertension is brought into, as well as pushed out of, control. In a cohort of 1294 patients with hypertension enrolled in a chronic disease management program at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center, patients are modeled as an array of features derived from the clinical domain over time, which are distilled into a core set using an information gain criteria regarding their predictive performance. A model for transition point prediction was then computed using a random forest classifier. The most predictive features for transitions in hypertension control status included hypertension assessment patterns, comorbid diagnoses, procedures and medication history. The final random forest model achieved a c-statistic of 0.836 (95% CI 0.830 to 0.842) and an accuracy of 0.773 (95% CI 0.766 to 0.780). This study achieved accurate prediction of transition points of hypertension control status, an important first step in the long-term goal of developing personalized hypertension management plans.

  13. Predicting changes in hypertension control using electronic health records from a chronic disease management program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jimeng; McNaughton, Candace D; Zhang, Ping; Perer, Adam; Gkoulalas-Divanis, Aris; Denny, Joshua C; Kirby, Jacqueline; Lasko, Thomas; Saip, Alexander; Malin, Bradley A

    2014-01-01

    Objective Common chronic diseases such as hypertension are costly and difficult to manage. Our ultimate goal is to use data from electronic health records to predict the risk and timing of deterioration in hypertension control. Towards this goal, this work predicts the transition points at which hypertension is brought into, as well as pushed out of, control. Method In a cohort of 1294 patients with hypertension enrolled in a chronic disease management program at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center, patients are modeled as an array of features derived from the clinical domain over time, which are distilled into a core set using an information gain criteria regarding their predictive performance. A model for transition point prediction was then computed using a random forest classifier. Results The most predictive features for transitions in hypertension control status included hypertension assessment patterns, comorbid diagnoses, procedures and medication history. The final random forest model achieved a c-statistic of 0.836 (95% CI 0.830 to 0.842) and an accuracy of 0.773 (95% CI 0.766 to 0.780). Conclusions This study achieved accurate prediction of transition points of hypertension control status, an important first step in the long-term goal of developing personalized hypertension management plans. PMID:24045907

  14. Taxi-Out Time Prediction for Departures at Charlotte Airport Using Machine Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hanbong; Malik, Waqar; Jung, Yoon C.

    2016-01-01

    Predicting the taxi-out times of departures accurately is important for improving airport efficiency and takeoff time predictability. In this paper, we attempt to apply machine learning techniques to actual traffic data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport for taxi-out time prediction. To find the key factors affecting aircraft taxi times, surface surveillance data is first analyzed. From this data analysis, several variables, including terminal concourse, spot, runway, departure fix and weight class, are selected for taxi time prediction. Then, various machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural networks model are applied to actual flight data. Different traffic flow and weather conditions at Charlotte airport are also taken into account for more accurate prediction. The taxi-out time prediction results show that linear regression and random forest techniques can provide the most accurate prediction in terms of root-mean-square errors. We also discuss the operational complexity and uncertainties that make it difficult to predict the taxi times accurately.

  15. Predictability of the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone on medium-range timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamagami, Akio; Matsueda, Mio; Tanaka, Hiroshi L.

    2018-03-01

    Arctic Cyclones (ACs) can have a significant impact on the Arctic region. Therefore, the accurate prediction of ACs is important in anticipating their associated environmental and societal costs. This study investigates the predictability of the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone (AC12) that exhibited a minimum central pressure of 964 hPa on 6 August 2012, using five medium-range ensemble forecasts. We show that the development and position of AC12 were better predicted in forecasts initialized on and after 4 August 2012. In addition, the position of AC12 was more predictable than its development. A comparison of ensemble members, classified by the error in predictability of the development and position of AC12, revealed that an accurate prediction of upper-level fields, particularly temperature, was important for the prediction of this event. The predicted position of AC12 was influenced mainly by the prediction of the polar vortex, whereas the predicted development of AC12 was dependent primarily on the prediction of the merging of upper-level warm cores. Consequently, an accurate prediction of the polar vortex position and the development of the warm core through merging resulted in better prediction of AC12.

  16. Evolutionary history, immigration history, and the extent of diversification in community assembly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knope, Matthew L; Forde, Samantha E; Fukami, Tadashi

    2011-01-01

    During community assembly, species may accumulate not only by immigration, but also by in situ diversification. Diversification has intrigued biologists because its extent varies even among closely related lineages under similar ecological conditions. Recent research has suggested that some of this puzzling variation may be caused by stochastic differences in the history of immigration (relative timing and order of immigration by founding populations), indicating that immigration and diversification may affect community assembly interactively. However, the conditions under which immigration history affects diversification remain unclear. Here we propose the hypothesis that whether or not immigration history influences the extent of diversification depends on the founding populations' prior evolutionary history, using evidence from a bacterial experiment. To create genotypes with different evolutionary histories, replicate populations of Pseudomonas fluorescens were allowed to adapt to a novel environment for a short or long period of time (approximately 10 or 100 bacterial generations) with or without exploiters (viral parasites). Each evolved genotype was then introduced to a new habitat either before or after a standard competitor genotype. Most genotypes diversified to a greater extent when introduced before, rather than after, the competitor. However, introduction order did not affect the extent of diversification when the evolved genotype had previously adapted to the environment for a long period of time without exploiters. Diversification of these populations was low regardless of introduction order. These results suggest that the importance of immigration history in diversification can be predicted by the immigrants' evolutionary past. The hypothesis proposed here may be generally applicable in both micro- and macro-organisms.

  17. Probability-based collaborative filtering model for predicting gene–disease associations

    OpenAIRE

    Zeng, Xiangxiang; Ding, Ningxiang; Rodríguez-Patón, Alfonso; Zou, Quan

    2017-01-01

    Background Accurately predicting pathogenic human genes has been challenging in recent research. Considering extensive gene–disease data verified by biological experiments, we can apply computational methods to perform accurate predictions with reduced time and expenses. Methods We propose a probability-based collaborative filtering model (PCFM) to predict pathogenic human genes. Several kinds of data sets, containing data of humans and data of other nonhuman species, are integrated in our mo...

  18. Predicting scholars' scientific impact.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Mazloumian

    Full Text Available We tested the underlying assumption that citation counts are reliable predictors of future success, analyzing complete citation data on the careers of ~150,000 scientists. Our results show that i among all citation indicators, the annual citations at the time of prediction is the best predictor of future citations, ii future citations of a scientist's published papers can be predicted accurately (r(2 = 0.80 for a 1-year prediction, P<0.001 but iii future citations of future work are hardly predictable.

  19. Accurate and computationally efficient prediction of thermochemical properties of biomolecules using the generalized connectivity-based hierarchy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sengupta, Arkajyoti; Ramabhadran, Raghunath O; Raghavachari, Krishnan

    2014-08-14

    In this study we have used the connectivity-based hierarchy (CBH) method to derive accurate heats of formation of a range of biomolecules, 18 amino acids and 10 barbituric acid/uracil derivatives. The hierarchy is based on the connectivity of the different atoms in a large molecule. It results in error-cancellation reaction schemes that are automated, general, and can be readily used for a broad range of organic molecules and biomolecules. Herein, we first locate stable conformational and tautomeric forms of these biomolecules using an accurate level of theory (viz. CCSD(T)/6-311++G(3df,2p)). Subsequently, the heats of formation of the amino acids are evaluated using the CBH-1 and CBH-2 schemes and routinely employed density functionals or wave function-based methods. The calculated heats of formation obtained herein using modest levels of theory and are in very good agreement with those obtained using more expensive W1-F12 and W2-F12 methods on amino acids and G3 results on barbituric acid derivatives. Overall, the present study (a) highlights the small effect of including multiple conformers in determining the heats of formation of biomolecules and (b) in concurrence with previous CBH studies, proves that use of the more effective error-cancelling isoatomic scheme (CBH-2) results in more accurate heats of formation with modestly sized basis sets along with common density functionals or wave function-based methods.

  20. Time dependent patient no-show predictive modelling development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yu-Li; Hanauer, David A

    2016-05-09

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to develop evident-based predictive no-show models considering patients' each past appointment status, a time-dependent component, as an independent predictor to improve predictability. Design/methodology/approach - A ten-year retrospective data set was extracted from a pediatric clinic. It consisted of 7,291 distinct patients who had at least two visits along with their appointment characteristics, patient demographics, and insurance information. Logistic regression was adopted to develop no-show models using two-thirds of the data for training and the remaining data for validation. The no-show threshold was then determined based on minimizing the misclassification of show/no-show assignments. There were a total of 26 predictive model developed based on the number of available past appointments. Simulation was employed to test the effective of each model on costs of patient wait time, physician idle time, and overtime. Findings - The results demonstrated the misclassification rate and the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic gradually improved as more appointment history was included until around the 20th predictive model. The overbooking method with no-show predictive models suggested incorporating up to the 16th model and outperformed other overbooking methods by as much as 9.4 per cent in the cost per patient while allowing two additional patients in a clinic day. Research limitations/implications - The challenge now is to actually implement the no-show predictive model systematically to further demonstrate its robustness and simplicity in various scheduling systems. Originality/value - This paper provides examples of how to build the no-show predictive models with time-dependent components to improve the overbooking policy. Accurately identifying scheduled patients' show/no-show status allows clinics to proactively schedule patients to reduce the negative impact of patient no-shows.

  1. Predicting galaxy star formation rates via the co-evolution of galaxies and haloes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Douglas F.; Hearin, Andrew P.; Berlind, Andreas A.; Becker, Matthew R.; Behroozi, Peter S.; Skibba, Ramin A.; Reyes, Reinabelle; Zentner, Andrew R.; van den Bosch, Frank C.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we test the age matching hypothesis that the star formation rate (SFR) of a galaxy of fixed stellar mass is determined by its dark matter halo formation history, e.g. more quiescent galaxies reside in older haloes. We present new Sloan Digital Sky Survey measurements of the galaxy two-point correlation function and galaxy-galaxy lensing as a function of stellar mass and SFR, separated into quenched and star-forming galaxy samples to test this simple model. We find that our age matching model is in excellent agreement with these new measurements. We also find that our model is able to predict: (1) the relative SFRs of central and satellite galaxies, (2) the SFR dependence of the radial distribution of satellite galaxy populations within galaxy groups, rich groups, and clusters and their surrounding larger scale environments, and (3) the interesting feature that the satellite quenched fraction as a function of projected radial distance from the central galaxy exhibits an ˜r-.15 slope, independent of environment. These accurate predictions are intriguing given that we do not explicitly model satellite-specific processes after infall, and that in our model the virial radius does not mark a special transition region in the evolution of a satellite. The success of the model suggests that present-day galaxy SFR is strongly correlated with halo mass assembly history.

  2. Accurate determination of rates from non-uniformly sampled relaxation data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stetz, Matthew A.; Wand, A. Joshua, E-mail: wand@upenn.edu [University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Johnson Research Foundation and Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics (United States)

    2016-08-15

    The application of non-uniform sampling (NUS) to relaxation experiments traditionally used to characterize the fast internal motion of proteins is quantitatively examined. Experimentally acquired Poisson-gap sampled data reconstructed with iterative soft thresholding are compared to regular sequentially sampled (RSS) data. Using ubiquitin as a model system, it is shown that 25 % sampling is sufficient for the determination of quantitatively accurate relaxation rates. When the sampling density is fixed at 25 %, the accuracy of rates is shown to increase sharply with the total number of sampled points until eventually converging near the inherent reproducibility of the experiment. Perhaps contrary to some expectations, it is found that accurate peak height reconstruction is not required for the determination of accurate rates. Instead, inaccuracies in rates arise from inconsistencies in reconstruction across the relaxation series that primarily manifest as a non-linearity in the recovered peak height. This indicates that the performance of an NUS relaxation experiment cannot be predicted from comparison of peak heights using a single RSS reference spectrum. The generality of these findings was assessed using three alternative reconstruction algorithms, eight different relaxation measurements, and three additional proteins that exhibit varying degrees of spectral complexity. From these data, it is revealed that non-linearity in peak height reconstruction across the relaxation series is strongly correlated with errors in NUS-derived relaxation rates. Importantly, it is shown that this correlation can be exploited to reliably predict the performance of an NUS-relaxation experiment by using three or more RSS reference planes from the relaxation series. The RSS reference time points can also serve to provide estimates of the uncertainty of the sampled intensity, which for a typical relaxation times series incurs no penalty in total acquisition time.

  3. Factors Influencing the Predictive Power of Models for Predicting Mortality and/or Heart Failure Hospitalization in Patients With Heart Failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouwerkerk, Wouter; Voors, Adriaan A.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

    2014-01-01

    The present paper systematically reviews and compares existing prediction models in order to establish the strongest variables, models, and model characteristics in patients with heart failure predicting outcome. To improve decision making accurately predicting mortality and heart-failure

  4. Predicting early cognitive decline in newly-diagnosed Parkinson's patients: A practical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogue, Olivia; Fernandez, Hubert H; Floden, Darlene P

    2018-06-19

    To create a multivariable model to predict early cognitive decline among de novo patients with Parkinson's disease, using brief, inexpensive assessments that are easily incorporated into clinical flow. Data for 351 drug-naïve patients diagnosed with idiopathic Parkinson's disease were obtained from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative. Baseline demographic, disease history, motor, and non-motor features were considered as candidate predictors. Best subsets selection was used to determine the multivariable baseline symptom profile that most accurately predicted individual cognitive decline within three years. Eleven per cent of the sample experienced cognitive decline. The final logistic regression model predicting decline included five baseline variables: verbal memory retention, right-sided bradykinesia, years of education, subjective report of cognitive impairment, and REM behavior disorder. Model discrimination was good (optimism-adjusted concordance index = .749). The associated nomogram provides a tool to determine individual patient risk of meaningful cognitive change in the early stages of the disease. Through the consideration of easily-implemented or routinely-gathered assessments, we have identified a multidimensional baseline profile and created a convenient, inexpensive tool to predict cognitive decline in the earliest stages of Parkinson's disease. The use of this tool would generate prediction at the individual level, allowing clinicians to tailor medical management for each patient and identify at-risk patients for clinical trials aimed at disease modifying therapies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Methods for Efficiently and Accurately Computing Quantum Mechanical Free Energies for Enzyme Catalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kearns, F L; Hudson, P S; Boresch, S; Woodcock, H L

    2016-01-01

    Enzyme activity is inherently linked to free energies of transition states, ligand binding, protonation/deprotonation, etc.; these free energies, and thus enzyme function, can be affected by residue mutations, allosterically induced conformational changes, and much more. Therefore, being able to predict free energies associated with enzymatic processes is critical to understanding and predicting their function. Free energy simulation (FES) has historically been a computational challenge as it requires both the accurate description of inter- and intramolecular interactions and adequate sampling of all relevant conformational degrees of freedom. The hybrid quantum mechanical molecular mechanical (QM/MM) framework is the current tool of choice when accurate computations of macromolecular systems are essential. Unfortunately, robust and efficient approaches that employ the high levels of computational theory needed to accurately describe many reactive processes (ie, ab initio, DFT), while also including explicit solvation effects and accounting for extensive conformational sampling are essentially nonexistent. In this chapter, we will give a brief overview of two recently developed methods that mitigate several major challenges associated with QM/MM FES: the QM non-Boltzmann Bennett's acceptance ratio method and the QM nonequilibrium work method. We will also describe usage of these methods to calculate free energies associated with (1) relative properties and (2) along reaction paths, using simple test cases with relevance to enzymes examples. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Towards cancer-aware life-history modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokko, Hanna; Hochberg, Michael E

    2015-07-19

    Studies of body size evolution, and life-history theory in general, are conducted without taking into account cancer as a factor that can end an organism's reproductive lifespan. This reflects a tacit assumption that predation, parasitism and starvation are of overriding importance in the wild. We argue here that even if deaths directly attributable to cancer are a rarity in studies of natural populations, it remains incorrect to infer that cancer has not been of importance in shaping observed life histories. We present first steps towards a cancer-aware life-history theory, by quantifying the decrease in the length of the expected reproductively active lifespan that follows from an attempt to grow larger than conspecific competitors. If all else is equal, a larger organism is more likely to develop cancer, but, importantly, many factors are unlikely to be equal. Variations in extrinsic mortality as well as in the pace of life--larger organisms are often near the slow end of the fast-slow life-history continuum--can make realized cancer incidences more equal across species than what would be observed in the absence of adaptive responses to cancer risk (alleviating the so-called Peto's paradox). We also discuss reasons why patterns across species can differ from within-species predictions. Even if natural selection diminishes cancer susceptibility differences between species, within-species differences can remain. In many sexually dimorphic cases, we predict males to be more cancer-prone than females, forming an understudied component of sexual conflict.

  7. Does labor market history matter?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lesner, Rune Vammen

    2014-01-01

    This paper finds that labor market history plays an important role in the Danish labor market both by directly affecting the transitions between labor market states and indirectly through the wage. When comparing the relative importance of different types of state dependence, it is found that occ......This paper finds that labor market history plays an important role in the Danish labor market both by directly affecting the transitions between labor market states and indirectly through the wage. When comparing the relative importance of different types of state dependence, it is found...... that occurrence dependence from non-employment states seems to have the strongest effect on the employment rate, while employment history is the main driver of state dependence in the wage. Predictions based on the estimated model reveal potential negative long-term effects from external employment shocks...

  8. Assessment of MRI-Based Automated Fetal Cerebral Cortical Folding Measures in Prediction of Gestational Age in the Third Trimester.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, J; Awate, S P; Licht, D J; Clouchoux, C; du Plessis, A J; Avants, B B; Vossough, A; Gee, J C; Limperopoulos, C

    2015-07-01

    Traditional methods of dating a pregnancy based on history or sonographic assessment have a large variation in the third trimester. We aimed to assess the ability of various quantitative measures of brain cortical folding on MR imaging in determining fetal gestational age in the third trimester. We evaluated 8 different quantitative cortical folding measures to predict gestational age in 33 healthy fetuses by using T2-weighted fetal MR imaging. We compared the accuracy of the prediction of gestational age by these cortical folding measures with the accuracy of prediction by brain volume measurement and by a previously reported semiquantitative visual scale of brain maturity. Regression models were constructed, and measurement biases and variances were determined via a cross-validation procedure. The cortical folding measures are accurate in the estimation and prediction of gestational age (mean of the absolute error, 0.43 ± 0.45 weeks) and perform better than (P = .024) brain volume (mean of the absolute error, 0.72 ± 0.61 weeks) or sonography measures (SDs approximately 1.5 weeks, as reported in literature). Prediction accuracy is comparable with that of the semiquantitative visual assessment score (mean, 0.57 ± 0.41 weeks). Quantitative cortical folding measures such as global average curvedness can be an accurate and reliable estimator of gestational age and brain maturity for healthy fetuses in the third trimester and have the potential to be an indicator of brain-growth delays for at-risk fetuses and preterm neonates. © 2015 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  9. Are predictive equations for estimating resting energy expenditure accurate in Asian Indian male weightlifters?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mini Joseph

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The accuracy of existing predictive equations to determine the resting energy expenditure (REE of professional weightlifters remains scarcely studied. Our study aimed at assessing the REE of male Asian Indian weightlifters with indirect calorimetry and to compare the measured REE (mREE with published equations. A new equation using potential anthropometric variables to predict REE was also evaluated. Materials and Methods: REE was measured on 30 male professional weightlifters aged between 17 and 28 years using indirect calorimetry and compared with the eight formulas predicted by Harris–Benedicts, Mifflin-St. Jeor, FAO/WHO/UNU, ICMR, Cunninghams, Owen, Katch-McArdle, and Nelson. Pearson correlation coefficient, intraclass correlation coefficient, and multiple linear regression analysis were carried out to study the agreement between the different methods, association with anthropometric variables, and to formulate a new prediction equation for this population. Results: Pearson correlation coefficients between mREE and the anthropometric variables showed positive significance with suprailiac skinfold thickness, lean body mass (LBM, waist circumference, hip circumference, bone mineral mass, and body mass. All eight predictive equations underestimated the REE of the weightlifters when compared with the mREE. The highest mean difference was 636 kcal/day (Owen, 1986 and the lowest difference was 375 kcal/day (Cunninghams, 1980. Multiple linear regression done stepwise showed that LBM was the only significant determinant of REE in this group of sportspersons. A new equation using LBM as the independent variable for calculating REE was computed. REE for weightlifters = −164.065 + 0.039 (LBM (confidence interval −1122.984, 794.854]. This new equation reduced the mean difference with mREE by 2.36 + 369.15 kcal/day (standard error = 67.40. Conclusion: The significant finding of this study was that all the prediction equations

  10. Parental depressive history, parenting styles, and child psychopathology over six years: The contribution of each parent’s depressive history to the other’s parenting styles

    OpenAIRE

    Kopala-Sibley, Daniel C.; Jelinek, Caitlin; Kessel, Ellen; Frost, Allison; Allmann, Anna E.S.; Klein, Daniel N.

    2017-01-01

    The link between parental depressive history and parenting styles is well established, as is the association of parenting with child psychopathology. However, little research has examined whether a depressive history in one parent predicts the parenting style of the other parent. As well, relatively little research has tested transactional models of the parenting-child psychopathology relationship in the context of parents’ depressive histories. In this study, mothers and fa...

  11. Prediction degradation trend of nuclear equipment based on GM (1, 1)-Markov chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Liming; Zhao Xinwen; Cai Qi; Wu Guangjiang

    2010-01-01

    The degradation trend prediction results are important references for nuclear equipment in-service inspection and maintenance plan. But it is difficult to predict the nuclear equipment degradation trend accurately by the traditional statistical probability due to the small samples, lack of degradation data and the wavy degradation locus. Therefore, a method of equipment degradation trend prediction based on GM (1, l)-Markov chain was proposed in this paper. The method which makes use of the advantages of both GM (1, 1) method and Markov chain could improve the prediction precision of nuclear equipment degradation trend. The paper collected degradation data as samples and accurately predicted the degradation trend of canned motor pump. Compared with the prediction results by GM (1, 1) method, the prediction precision by GM (1, l)-Markov chain is more accurate. (authors)

  12. Daily FOUR score assessment provides accurate prognosis of long-term outcome in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, N; Venot, M; Verdonk, F; Chardon, A; Le Guennec, L; Llerena, M C; Raimbourg, Q; Taldir, G; Luque, Y; Fagon, J-Y; Guerot, E; Diehl, J-L

    2015-05-01

    The accurate prediction of outcome after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is of major importance. The recently described Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) is well adapted to mechanically ventilated patients and does not depend on verbal response. To evaluate the ability of FOUR assessed by intensivists to accurately predict outcome in OHCA. We prospectively identified patients admitted for OHCA with a Glasgow Coma Scale below 8. Neurological assessment was performed daily. Outcome was evaluated at 6 months using Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Categories (GP-CPC). Eighty-five patients were included. At 6 months, 19 patients (22%) had a favorable outcome, GP-CPC 1-2, and 66 (78%) had an unfavorable outcome, GP-CPC 3-5. Compared to both brainstem responses at day 3 and evolution of Glasgow Coma Scale, evolution of FOUR score over the three first days was able to predict unfavorable outcome more precisely. Thus, absence of improvement or worsening from day 1 to day 3 of FOUR had 0.88 (0.79-0.97) specificity, 0.71 (0.66-0.76) sensitivity, 0.94 (0.84-1.00) PPV and 0.54 (0.49-0.59) NPV to predict unfavorable outcome. Similarly, the brainstem response of FOUR score at 0 evaluated at day 3 had 0.94 (0.89-0.99) specificity, 0.60 (0.50-0.70) sensitivity, 0.96 (0.92-1.00) PPV and 0.47 (0.37-0.57) NPV to predict unfavorable outcome. The absence of improvement or worsening from day 1 to day 3 of FOUR evaluated by intensivists provides an accurate prognosis of poor neurological outcome in OHCA. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  13. Adolescents' knowledge of medical terminology and family health history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastrup, J L; Phillips, S M; Vullo, K; Kang, G; Slomka, L

    1992-01-01

    Compared 309 youths ages 11 to 15 years and their parents with respect to their comprehension of terms for seven common medical disorders: heart attack, stroke, atherosclerosis, ulcer, hypertension, diabetes, and cancer. For two thirds of the adolescent sample, accuracy of reporting of these disorders among the parents and grandparents was assessed. Results indicated considerable variation among disorders with respect to both comprehension of terms and accuracy of family health history. Adolescents' age was a major predictor of knowledge of medical terms (r = .41). Age was not related to accuracy of family health information. Consonant with this finding, adolescents' level of accuracy regarding family health history was generally similar to that of previous adult samples, suggesting that family health information is acquired and retained at an early age. Adolescents were more accurate concerning parents' compared with grandparents' history of hypertension.

  14. Fast-slow continuum and reproductive strategies structure plant life-history variation worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Jones, Owen R; Jongejans, Eelke; Blomberg, Simon P; Hodgson, David J; Mbeau-Ache, Cyril; Zuidema, Pieter A; de Kroon, Hans; Buckley, Yvonne M

    2016-01-05

    The identification of patterns in life-history strategies across the tree of life is essential to our prediction of population persistence, extinction, and diversification. Plants exhibit a wide range of patterns of longevity, growth, and reproduction, but the general determinants of this enormous variation in life history are poorly understood. We use demographic data from 418 plant species in the wild, from annual herbs to supercentennial trees, to examine how growth form, habitat, and phylogenetic relationships structure plant life histories and to develop a framework to predict population performance. We show that 55% of the variation in plant life-history strategies is adequately characterized using two independent axes: the fast-slow continuum, including fast-growing, short-lived plant species at one end and slow-growing, long-lived species at the other, and a reproductive strategy axis, with highly reproductive, iteroparous species at one extreme and poorly reproductive, semelparous plants with frequent shrinkage at the other. Our findings remain consistent across major habitats and are minimally affected by plant growth form and phylogenetic ancestry, suggesting that the relative independence of the fast-slow and reproduction strategy axes is general in the plant kingdom. Our findings have similarities with how life-history strategies are structured in mammals, birds, and reptiles. The position of plant species populations in the 2D space produced by both axes predicts their rate of recovery from disturbances and population growth rate. This life-history framework may complement trait-based frameworks on leaf and wood economics; together these frameworks may allow prediction of responses of plants to anthropogenic disturbances and changing environments.

  15. Risk prediction for chronic kidney disease progression using heterogeneous electronic health record data and time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotte, Adler; Ranganath, Rajesh; Hirsch, Jamie S; Blei, David; Elhadad, Noémie

    2015-07-01

    As adoption of electronic health records continues to increase, there is an opportunity to incorporate clinical documentation as well as laboratory values and demographics into risk prediction modeling. The authors develop a risk prediction model for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression from stage III to stage IV that includes longitudinal data and features drawn from clinical documentation. The study cohort consisted of 2908 primary-care clinic patients who had at least three visits prior to January 1, 2013 and developed CKD stage III during their documented history. Development and validation cohorts were randomly selected from this cohort and the study datasets included longitudinal inpatient and outpatient data from these populations. Time series analysis (Kalman filter) and survival analysis (Cox proportional hazards) were combined to produce a range of risk models. These models were evaluated using concordance, a discriminatory statistic. A risk model incorporating longitudinal data on clinical documentation and laboratory test results (concordance 0.849) predicts progression from state III CKD to stage IV CKD more accurately when compared to a similar model without laboratory test results (concordance 0.733, P<.001), a model that only considers the most recent laboratory test results (concordance 0.819, P < .031) and a model based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (concordance 0.779, P < .001). A risk prediction model that takes longitudinal laboratory test results and clinical documentation into consideration can predict CKD progression from stage III to stage IV more accurately than three models that do not take all of these variables into consideration. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

  16. Foreign body in the knee with no history of trauma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesudoss Prabhakaran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Foreign bodies in the knee joint are not uncommon. We report a case of sewing needle that migrated and embedded inside the knee with no history of trauma. Searching for any small foreign body in the knee joint is not easy in either open or arthroscopic procedures. In this case, the surgery was made by open method avoiding arthroscopy due to technical reasons. We emphasize careful history taking, clinical examination and, preferably, an open procedure for migrating tiny foreign bodies to facilitate accurate diagnosis, superior visualization and easier instrumentation to remove embedded foreign bodies in the knee.

  17. The FLUKA code: An accurate simulation tool for particle therapy

    CERN Document Server

    Battistoni, Giuseppe; Böhlen, Till T; Cerutti, Francesco; Chin, Mary Pik Wai; Dos Santos Augusto, Ricardo M; Ferrari, Alfredo; Garcia Ortega, Pablo; Kozlowska, Wioletta S; Magro, Giuseppe; Mairani, Andrea; Parodi, Katia; Sala, Paola R; Schoofs, Philippe; Tessonnier, Thomas; Vlachoudis, Vasilis

    2016-01-01

    Monte Carlo (MC) codes are increasingly spreading in the hadrontherapy community due to their detailed description of radiation transport and interaction with matter. The suitability of a MC code for application to hadrontherapy demands accurate and reliable physical models capable of handling all components of the expected radiation field. This becomes extremely important for correctly performing not only physical but also biologically-based dose calculations, especially in cases where ions heavier than protons are involved. In addition, accurate prediction of emerging secondary radiation is of utmost importance in innovative areas of research aiming at in-vivo treatment verification. This contribution will address the recent developments of the FLUKA MC code and its practical applications in this field. Refinements of the FLUKA nuclear models in the therapeutic energy interval lead to an improved description of the mixed radiation field as shown in the presented benchmarks against experimental data with bot...

  18. Accurate electrostatic and van der Waals pull-in prediction for fully clamped nano/micro-beams using linear universal graphs of pull-in instability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahani, Masoud; Askari, Amir R.

    2014-09-01

    In spite of the fact that pull-in instability of electrically actuated nano/micro-beams has been investigated by many researchers to date, no explicit formula has been presented yet which can predict pull-in voltage based on a geometrically non-linear and distributed parameter model. The objective of present paper is to introduce a simple and accurate formula to predict this value for a fully clamped electrostatically actuated nano/micro-beam. To this end, a non-linear Euler-Bernoulli beam model is employed, which accounts for the axial residual stress, geometric non-linearity of mid-plane stretching, distributed electrostatic force and the van der Waals (vdW) attraction. The non-linear boundary value governing equation of equilibrium is non-dimensionalized and solved iteratively through single-term Galerkin based reduced order model (ROM). The solutions are validated thorough direct comparison with experimental and other existing results reported in previous studies. Pull-in instability under electrical and vdW loads are also investigated using universal graphs. Based on the results of these graphs, non-dimensional pull-in and vdW parameters, which are defined in the text, vary linearly versus the other dimensionless parameters of the problem. Using this fact, some linear equations are presented to predict pull-in voltage, the maximum allowable length, the so-called detachment length, and the minimum allowable gap for a nano/micro-system. These linear equations are also reduced to a couple of universal pull-in formulas for systems with small initial gap. The accuracy of the universal pull-in formulas are also validated by comparing its results with available experimental and some previous geometric linear and closed-form findings published in the literature.

  19. Machine-Learning-Based Electronic Triage More Accurately Differentiates Patients With Respect to Clinical Outcomes Compared With the Emergency Severity Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Scott; Toerper, Matthew; Hamrock, Eric; Hinson, Jeremiah S; Barnes, Sean; Gardner, Heather; Dugas, Andrea; Linton, Bob; Kirsch, Tom; Kelen, Gabor

    2018-05-01

    Standards for emergency department (ED) triage in the United States rely heavily on subjective assessment and are limited in their ability to risk-stratify patients. This study seeks to evaluate an electronic triage system (e-triage) based on machine learning that predicts likelihood of acute outcomes enabling improved patient differentiation. A multisite, retrospective, cross-sectional study of 172,726 ED visits from urban and community EDs was conducted. E-triage is composed of a random forest model applied to triage data (vital signs, chief complaint, and active medical history) that predicts the need for critical care, an emergency procedure, and inpatient hospitalization in parallel and translates risk to triage level designations. Predicted outcomes and secondary outcomes of elevated troponin and lactate levels were evaluated and compared with the Emergency Severity Index (ESI). E-triage predictions had an area under the curve ranging from 0.73 to 0.92 and demonstrated equivalent or improved identification of clinical patient outcomes compared with ESI at both EDs. E-triage provided rationale for risk-based differentiation of the more than 65% of ED visits triaged to ESI level 3. Matching the ESI patient distribution for comparisons, e-triage identified more than 10% (14,326 patients) of ESI level 3 patients requiring up triage who had substantially increased risk of critical care or emergency procedure (1.7% ESI level 3 versus 6.2% up triaged) and hospitalization (18.9% versus 45.4%) across EDs. E-triage more accurately classifies ESI level 3 patients and highlights opportunities to use predictive analytics to support triage decisionmaking. Further prospective validation is needed. Copyright © 2017 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Predicting the natural mortality of marine fish from life history characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gislason, Henrik

    For fish much of the life history is determined by body size. Body size and asymptotic size significantly influences important life history processes such as growth, maturity, egg production, and natural mortality. Futhermore, for a population to persist, offspring must be able to replace...... their parents on a one-for-one basis in the long run. Otherwise the population would either increase exponentially or become extinct. Combining data on growth and specific fecundity in a size-based fish community model of the North Sea and using the requirement of a one-for-one replacement provides...... the information necessary to estimate the scaling of natural mortality with size and asymptotic size. The estimated scaling is compared with output from multispecies fish stock models, with the empirical scaling of the maximum number of recruits per unit of spawning stock biomass with body size...

  1. Nothing Else Matters: Model-Agnostic Explanations By Identifying Prediction Invariance

    OpenAIRE

    Ribeiro, Marco Tulio; Singh, Sameer; Guestrin, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    At the core of interpretable machine learning is the question of whether humans are able to make accurate predictions about a model's behavior. Assumed in this question are three properties of the interpretable output: coverage, precision, and effort. Coverage refers to how often humans think they can predict the model's behavior, precision to how accurate humans are in those predictions, and effort is either the up-front effort required in interpreting the model, or the effort required to ma...

  2. Accurate pan-specific prediction of peptide-MHC class II binding affinity with improved binding core identification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreatta, Massimo; Karosiene, Edita; Rasmussen, Michael

    2015-01-01

    with known binding registers, the new method NetMHCIIpan-3.1 significantly outperformed the earlier 3.0 version. We illustrate the impact of accurate binding core identification for the interpretation of T cell cross-reactivity using tetramer double staining with a CMV epitope and its variants mapped...

  3. CMASA: an accurate algorithm for detecting local protein structural similarity and its application to enzyme catalytic site annotation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Gong-Hua

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The rapid development of structural genomics has resulted in many "unknown function" proteins being deposited in Protein Data Bank (PDB, thus, the functional prediction of these proteins has become a challenge for structural bioinformatics. Several sequence-based and structure-based methods have been developed to predict protein function, but these methods need to be improved further, such as, enhancing the accuracy, sensitivity, and the computational speed. Here, an accurate algorithm, the CMASA (Contact MAtrix based local Structural Alignment algorithm, has been developed to predict unknown functions of proteins based on the local protein structural similarity. This algorithm has been evaluated by building a test set including 164 enzyme families, and also been compared to other methods. Results The evaluation of CMASA shows that the CMASA is highly accurate (0.96, sensitive (0.86, and fast enough to be used in the large-scale functional annotation. Comparing to both sequence-based and global structure-based methods, not only the CMASA can find remote homologous proteins, but also can find the active site convergence. Comparing to other local structure comparison-based methods, the CMASA can obtain the better performance than both FFF (a method using geometry to predict protein function and SPASM (a local structure alignment method; and the CMASA is more sensitive than PINTS and is more accurate than JESS (both are local structure alignment methods. The CMASA was applied to annotate the enzyme catalytic sites of the non-redundant PDB, and at least 166 putative catalytic sites have been suggested, these sites can not be observed by the Catalytic Site Atlas (CSA. Conclusions The CMASA is an accurate algorithm for detecting local protein structural similarity, and it holds several advantages in predicting enzyme active sites. The CMASA can be used in large-scale enzyme active site annotation. The CMASA can be available by the

  4. Design of a fusion reaction-history measurement system with high temporal resolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng Xiaoshi; Wang Feng; Liu Shenye; Jiang Xiaohua; Tang Qi

    2010-01-01

    In order to accurately measure the history of fusion reaction for experimental study of inertial confinement fusion, we advance the design of a fusion reaction-history measurement system with high temporal resolution. The diagnostic system is composed of plastic scintillator and nose cone, an optical imaging system and the system of optic streak camera. Analyzing the capability of the system indicated that the instrument measured fusion reaction history at temporal resolution as low as 55ps and 40ps correspond to 2.45MeV DD neutrons and 14.03MeV DT neutrons. The instrument is able to measure the fusion reaction history at yields 1.5 x 10 9 DD neutrons, about 4 x 10 8 DT neutrons are required for a similar quality signal. (authors)

  5. Life history dependent morphometric variation in stream-dwelling Atlantic salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letcher, B.H.

    2003-01-01

    The time course of morphometric variation among life histories for stream-dwelling Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) parr (age-0+ to age-2+) was analyzed. Possible life histories were combinations of parr maturity status in the autumn (mature or immature) and age at outmigration (smolt at age-2+ or later age). Actual life histories expressed with enough fish for analysis in the 1997 cohort were immature/age-2+ smolt, mature/age-2 +smolt, and mature/age-2+ non-smolt. Tagged fish were assigned to one of the three life histories and digital pictures from the field were analyzed using landmark-based geometric morphometrics. Results indicated that successful grouping of fish according to life history varied with fish age, but that fish could be grouped before the actual expression of the life histories. By March (age-1+), fish were successfully grouped using a descriptive discriminant function and successful assignment ranged from 84 to 97% for the remainder of stream residence. A jackknife of the discriminant function revealed an average life history prediction success of 67% from age-1+ summer to smolting. Low sample numbers for one of the life histories may have limited prediction success. A MANOVA on the shape descriptors (relative warps) also indicated significant differences in shape among life histories from age-1+ summer through to smolting. Across all samples, shape varied significantly with size. Within samples, shape did not vary significantly with size for samples from December (age-0+) to May (age-1+). During the age-1+ summer however, shape varied significantly with size, but the relationship between shape and size was not different among life histories. In the autumn (age-1+) and winter (age-2+), life history differences explained a significant portion of the change in shape with size. Life history dependent morphometric variation may be useful to indicate the timing of early expressions of life history variation and as a tool to explore temporal and

  6. On the consistent histories approach to quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowker, F.; Kent, A.

    1996-01-01

    We review the consistent histories formulations of quantum mechanics developed by Griffiths, Omnes, Gell-Man, and Hartle, and we describe the classifications of consistent sets. We illustrate some general features of consistent sets by a few lemmas and examples. We also consider various interpretations of the formalism, and we examine the new problems which arise in reconstructing the past and predicting the future. It is shown that Omnes characterization of true statements---statements that can be deduced unconditionally in his interpretation---is incorrect. We examine critically Gell-Mann and Hartle's interpretation of the formalism, and in particular, their discussions of communication, prediction, and retrodiction, and we conclude that their explanation of the apparent persistence of quasiclassicality relies on assumptions about an as-yet-unknown theory of experience. Our overall conclusion is that the consistent histories approach illustrates the need to supplement quantum mechanics by some selection principle in order to produce a fundamental theory capable of unconditional predictions

  7. An Accurate Gaussian Process-Based Early Warning System for Dengue Fever

    OpenAIRE

    Albinati, Julio; Meira Jr, Wagner; Pappa, Gisele Lobo

    2016-01-01

    Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease present in all Brazilian territory. Brazilian government, however, lacks an accurate early warning system to quickly predict future dengue outbreaks. Such system would help health authorities to plan their actions and to reduce the impact of the disease in the country. However, most attempts to model dengue fever use parametric models which enforce a specific expected behaviour and fail to capture the inherent complexity of dengue dynamics. Therefore, ...

  8. Prediction of dynamic contact angle histories of a bubble growing at a wall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geld, Cees W.M. van der

    2004-01-01

    A fast growing boiling bubble at the verge of detaching from a plane wall is usually shaped as a truncated sphere, and experiences various hydrodynamic forces due to its expansion and the motion of its center of mass. In a homogeneous flow field, one of the forces is the so-called bubble growth force that is essentially due to inertia. This force is usually evaluated with the aid of approximate expressions [Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 36 (1993) 651, Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 38 (1995) 2075]. In the present study an exact expression for the expansion force is derived for the case of a truncated sphere attached to a plane, infinite wall. The Lagrange-Thomson formalism is applied. Two Euler-Lagrange equations are derived, one governing the motion of the center of mass, the other governing expansion a kind of extended Rayleigh-Plesset equation. If a constitutive equation for the gas-vapor content of the bubble is given, initial conditions and these two differential equations determine the dynamics of the growing truncated sphere that has its foot on a plane, infinite wall. Simulations are carried out for a given expansion rate to predict the history of the dynamic contact angle. The simulations increase the understanding of mechanisms controlling detachment, and yield realistic times of detachment

  9. Can blind persons accurately assess body size from the voice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisanski, Katarzyna; Oleszkiewicz, Anna; Sorokowska, Agnieszka

    2016-04-01

    Vocal tract resonances provide reliable information about a speaker's body size that human listeners use for biosocial judgements as well as speech recognition. Although humans can accurately assess men's relative body size from the voice alone, how this ability is acquired remains unknown. In this study, we test the prediction that accurate voice-based size estimation is possible without prior audiovisual experience linking low frequencies to large bodies. Ninety-one healthy congenitally or early blind, late blind and sighted adults (aged 20-65) participated in the study. On the basis of vowel sounds alone, participants assessed the relative body sizes of male pairs of varying heights. Accuracy of voice-based body size assessments significantly exceeded chance and did not differ among participants who were sighted, or congenitally blind or who had lost their sight later in life. Accuracy increased significantly with relative differences in physical height between men, suggesting that both blind and sighted participants used reliable vocal cues to size (i.e. vocal tract resonances). Our findings demonstrate that prior visual experience is not necessary for accurate body size estimation. This capacity, integral to both nonverbal communication and speech perception, may be present at birth or may generalize from broader cross-modal correspondences. © 2016 The Author(s).

  10. Profiling crop pollinators: life history traits predict habitat use and crop visitation by Mediterranean wild bees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisanty, Gideon; Mandelik, Yael

    2015-04-01

    Wild pollinators, bees in particular, may greatly contribute to crop pollination and provide a safety net against declines in commercial pollinators. However, the identity, life history traits, and environmental sensitivities of main crop pollinator species.have received limited attention. These are crucial for predicting pollination services of different communities and for developing management practices that enhance crop pollinators. We sampled wild bees in three crop systems (almond, confection sunflower, and seed watermelon) in a mosaic Israeli Mediterranean landscape. Bees were sampled in field/orchard edges and interiors, and in seminatural scrub surrounding the fields/orchards. We also analyzed land cover at 50-2500 m radii around fields/orchards. We used this data to distinguish crop from non-crop pollinators based on a set of life history traits (nesting, lecty, sociality, body size) linked to habitat preference and crop visitation. Bee abundance and species richness decreased from the surrounding seminatural habitat to the field/orchard interior, especially across the seminatural habitat-field edge ecotone. Thus, although rich bee communities were found near fields, only small fractions crossed the ecotone and visited crop flowers in substantial numbers. The bee assemblage in agricultural fields/orchards and on crop flowers was dominated by ground-nesting bees of the tribe Halictini, which tend to nest within fields. Bees' habitat preferences were determined mainly by nesting guild, whereas crop visitation was determined mainly by sociality. Lecty and body size also affected both measures. The percentage of surrounding seminatural habitat at 250-2500 m radii had a positive effect on wild bee diversity in field edges, for all bee guilds, while at 50-100 m radii, only aboveground nesters were positively affected. In sum, we found that crop and non-crop pollinators are distinguished by behavioral and morphological traits. Hence, analysis of life-history

  11. History of major depressive disorder prospectively predicts worse quality of life in women with breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jim, Heather S L; Small, Brent J; Minton, Susan; Andrykowski, Michael; Jacobsen, Paul B

    2012-06-01

    Data are scarce about whether past history of major depressive disorder in the absence of current depression places breast cancer patients at risk for worse quality of life. The current study prospectively examined quality of life during chemotherapy in breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder (n = 29) and no history of depression (n = 144). Women with Stages 0-II breast cancer were assessed prior to and at the completion of chemotherapy. Major depressive disorder was assessed via structured interview and quality of life with the SF-36. Patients with past major depressive disorder displayed greater declines in physical functioning relative to patients with no history of depression (p ≤ 0.01). Findings suggest that breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder are at increased risk for declines in physical functioning during chemotherapy relative to patients with no history of depression.

  12. U.S. History through the Eyes of South Korean Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Sohyun; Kim, Myung Jung; Delacruz, Stacy

    2014-01-01

    The study begins with the premise of the critical need of increased understanding of others in our global times. Given the intensive and extensive, and often complicated and controversial relations between the United States and South Korea in its modern history, it is critical for South Korean youth to build a more accurate understanding of their…

  13. The Coverage of the Holocaust in High School History Textbooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindquist, David

    2009-01-01

    The Holocaust is now a regular part of high school history curricula throughout the United States and, as a result, coverage of the Holocaust has become a standard feature of high school textbooks. As with any major event, it is important for textbooks to provide a rigorously accurate and valid historical account. In dealing with the Holocaust,…

  14. Prediction of Bispectral Index during Target-controlled Infusion of Propofol and Remifentanil: A Deep Learning Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyung-Chul; Ryu, Ho-Geol; Chung, Eun-Jin; Jung, Chul-Woo

    2018-03-01

    The discrepancy between predicted effect-site concentration and measured bispectral index is problematic during intravenous anesthesia with target-controlled infusion of propofol and remifentanil. We hypothesized that bispectral index during total intravenous anesthesia would be more accurately predicted by a deep learning approach. Long short-term memory and the feed-forward neural network were sequenced to simulate the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parts of an empirical model, respectively, to predict intraoperative bispectral index during combined use of propofol and remifentanil. Inputs of long short-term memory were infusion histories of propofol and remifentanil, which were retrieved from target-controlled infusion pumps for 1,800 s at 10-s intervals. Inputs of the feed-forward network were the outputs of long short-term memory and demographic data such as age, sex, weight, and height. The final output of the feed-forward network was the bispectral index. The performance of bispectral index prediction was compared between the deep learning model and previously reported response surface model. The model hyperparameters comprised 8 memory cells in the long short-term memory layer and 16 nodes in the hidden layer of the feed-forward network. The model training and testing were performed with separate data sets of 131 and 100 cases. The concordance correlation coefficient (95% CI) were 0.561 (0.560 to 0.562) in the deep learning model, which was significantly larger than that in the response surface model (0.265 [0.263 to 0.266], P deep learning model-predicted bispectral index during target-controlled infusion of propofol and remifentanil more accurately compared to the traditional model. The deep learning approach in anesthetic pharmacology seems promising because of its excellent performance and extensibility.

  15. Gene expression signatures of radiation response are specific, durable and accurate in mice and humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah K Meadows

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Previous work has demonstrated the potential for peripheral blood (PB gene expression profiling for the detection of disease or environmental exposures.We have sought to determine the impact of several variables on the PB gene expression profile of an environmental exposure, ionizing radiation, and to determine the specificity of the PB signature of radiation versus other genotoxic stresses. Neither genotype differences nor the time of PB sampling caused any lessening of the accuracy of PB signatures to predict radiation exposure, but sex difference did influence the accuracy of the prediction of radiation exposure at the lowest level (50 cGy. A PB signature of sepsis was also generated and both the PB signature of radiation and the PB signature of sepsis were found to be 100% specific at distinguishing irradiated from septic animals. We also identified human PB signatures of radiation exposure and chemotherapy treatment which distinguished irradiated patients and chemotherapy-treated individuals within a heterogeneous population with accuracies of 90% and 81%, respectively.We conclude that PB gene expression profiles can be identified in mice and humans that are accurate in predicting medical conditions, are specific to each condition and remain highly accurate over time.

  16. Monitoring and predicting the risk of violence in residential facilities. No difference between patients with history or with no history of violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Girolamo, Giovanni; Buizza, Chiara; Sisti, Davide; Ferrari, Clarissa; Bulgari, Viola; Iozzino, Laura; Boero, Maria Elena; Cristiano, Giuseppe; De Francesco, Alessandra; Giobbio, Gian Marco; Maggi, Paolo; Rossi, Giuseppe; Segalini, Beatrice; Candini, Valentina

    2016-09-01

    Most people with mental disorders are not violent. However, the lack of specific studies in this area and recent radical changes in Italy, including the closure of six Forensic Mental Hospitals, has prompted a more detailed investigation of patients with aggressive behaviour. To compare socio-demographic, clinical and treatment-related characteristics of long-term inpatients with a lifetime history of serious violence with controls; to identify predictors of verbal and physical aggressive behaviour during 1-year follow-up. In a prospective cohort study, patients living in Residential Facilities (RFs) with a lifetime history of serious violence were assessed with a large set of standardized instruments and compared to patients with no violent history. Patients were evaluated bi-monthly with MOAS in order to monitor any aggressive behaviour. The sample included 139 inpatients, 82 violent and 57 control subjects; most patients were male. The bi-monthly monitoring during the 1-year follow-up did not show any statistically significant differences in aggressive behaviour rates between the two groups. The subscale explaining most of the MOAS total score was aggression against objects, although verbal aggression was the most common pattern. Furthermore, verbal aggression was significantly associated with aggression against objects and physical aggression. Patients with a history of violence in RFs, where treatment and clinical supervision are available, do not show higher rates of aggressiveness compared to patients with no lifetime history of violence. Since verbal aggression is associated with more severe forms of aggression, prompt intervention is warranted to reduce the risk of escalation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Prediction of postoperative pain: a systematic review of predictive experimental pain studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Werner, Mads Utke; Mjöbo, Helena N; Nielsen, Per R

    2010-01-01

    Quantitative testing of a patient's basal pain perception before surgery has the potential to be of clinical value if it can accurately predict the magnitude of pain and requirement of analgesics after surgery. This review includes 14 studies that have investigated the correlation between...... preoperative responses to experimental pain stimuli and clinical postoperative pain and demonstrates that the preoperative pain tests may predict 4-54% of the variance in postoperative pain experience depending on the stimulation methods and the test paradigm used. The predictive strength is much higher than...

  18. History of Major Depressive Disorder Prospectively Predicts Worse Quality of Life in Women with Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, Brent J.; Minton, Susan; Andrykowski, Michael; Jacobsen, Paul B.

    2012-01-01

    Background Data are scarce about whether past history of major depressive disorder in the absence of current depression places breast cancer patients at risk for worse quality of life. Purpose The current study prospectively examined quality of life during chemotherapy in breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder (n=29) and no history of depression (n=144). Methods Women with Stages 0–II breast cancer were assessed prior to and at the completion of chemotherapy. Major depressive disorder was assessed via structured interview and quality of life with the SF-36. Results Patients with past major depressive disorder displayed greater declines in physical functioning relative to patients with no history of depression (p≤0.01). Conclusions Findings suggest that breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder are at increased risk for declines in physical functioning during chemotherapy relative to patients with no history of depression. PMID:22167580

  19. Sleep-Wake State Tradeoffs, Impulsivity and Life History Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alissa A. Miller

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Evolutionary ecological theory predicts that sleep-wake state tradeoffs may be related to local environmental conditions and should therefore correlate to alterations in behavioral life history strategies. It was predicted that firefighters who slept more and reported better quality sleep on average would exhibit lower impulsivity inclinations related to slower life history trajectories. UPPS impulsivity scores and self-reported sleep averages were analyzed and indicated a negative association between sleep variables and urgency and a positive association with premeditation. Perseverance, and in some cases premeditation, however, disclosed an unpredicted marginally significant positive association between increased and emergency nighttime waking-related sleep deprivation. Sensation seeking was not associated with sleep variables, but was strongly associated with number of biological children. This research contributes to understanding the implications of human sleep across ecological and behavioral contexts and implies further research is necessary for constructing evolutionarily oriented measures of impulsivity inclination and its meaning in the context of life history strategies.

  20. "Life history space": a multivariate analysis of life history variation in extant and extinct Malagasy lemurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catlett, Kierstin K; Schwartz, Gary T; Godfrey, Laurie R; Jungers, William L

    2010-07-01

    Studies of primate life history variation are constrained by the fact that all large-bodied extant primates are haplorhines. However, large-bodied strepsirrhines recently existed. If we can extract life history information from their skeletons, these species can contribute to our understanding of primate life history variation. This is particularly important in light of new critiques of the classic "fast-slow continuum" as a descriptor of variation in life history profiles across mammals in general. We use established dental histological methods to estimate gestation length and age at weaning for five extinct lemur species. On the basis of these estimates, we reconstruct minimum interbirth intervals and maximum reproductive rates. We utilize principal components analysis to create a multivariate "life history space" that captures the relationships among reproductive parameters and brain and body size in extinct and extant lemurs. Our data show that, whereas large-bodied extinct lemurs can be described as "slow" in some fashion, they also varied greatly in their life history profiles. Those with relatively large brains also weaned their offspring late and had long interbirth intervals. These were not the largest of extinct lemurs. Thus, we distinguish size-related life history variation from variation that linked more strongly to ecological factors. Because all lemur species larger than 10 kg, regardless of life history profile, succumbed to extinction after humans arrived in Madagascar, we argue that large body size increased the probability of extinction independently of reproductive rate. We also provide some evidence that, among lemurs, brain size predicts reproductive rate better than body size. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  1. Edaphic history over seedling characters predicts integration and plasticity of integration across geologically variable populations of Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousins, Elsa A; Murren, Courtney J

    2017-12-01

    Studies on phenotypic plasticity and plasticity of integration have uncovered functionally linked modules of aboveground traits and seedlings of Arabidopsis thaliana , but we lack details about belowground variation in adult plants. Functional modules can be comprised of additional suites of traits that respond to environmental variation. We assessed whether shoot and root responses to nutrient environments in adult A. thaliana were predictable from seedling traits or population-specific geologic soil characteristics at the site of origin. We compared 17 natural accessions from across the native range of A. thaliana using 14-day-old seedlings grown on agar or sand and plants grown to maturity across nutrient treatments in sand. We measured aboveground size, reproduction, timing traits, root length, and root diameter. Edaphic characteristics were obtained from a global-scale dataset and related to field data. We detected significant among-population variation in root traits of seedlings and adults and in plasticity in aboveground and belowground traits of adult plants. Phenotypic integration of roots and shoots varied by population and environment. Relative integration was greater in roots than in shoots, and integration was predicted by edaphic soil history, particularly organic carbon content, whereas seedling traits did not predict later ontogenetic stages. Soil environment of origin has significant effects on phenotypic plasticity in response to nutrients, and on phenotypic integration of root modules and shoot modules. Root traits varied among populations in reproductively mature individuals, indicating potential for adaptive and integrated functional responses of root systems in annuals. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

  2. Herbivore-induced plant volatiles accurately predict history of coexistence, diet breadth, and feeding mode of herbivores.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danner, H.; Desurmont, G.A.; Cristescu, S.M.; Dam, N.M. van

    2017-01-01

    Herbivore-induced plant volatiles (HIPVs) serve as specific cues to higher trophic levels. Novel, exotic herbivores entering native foodwebs may disrupt the infochemical network as a result of changes in HIPV profiles. Here, we analysed HIPV blends of native Brassica rapa plants infested with one of

  3. Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes From Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavian, Narges; Blecker, Saul; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Smith-McLallen, Aaron; Nigam, Somesh; Sontag, David

    2015-12-01

    We present a new approach to population health, in which data-driven predictive models are learned for outcomes such as type 2 diabetes. Our approach enables risk assessment from readily available electronic claims data on large populations, without additional screening cost. Proposed model uncovers early and late-stage risk factors. Using administrative claims, pharmacy records, healthcare utilization, and laboratory results of 4.1 million individuals between 2005 and 2009, an initial set of 42,000 variables were derived that together describe the full health status and history of every individual. Machine learning was then used to methodically enhance predictive variable set and fit models predicting onset of type 2 diabetes in 2009-2011, 2010-2012, and 2011-2013. We compared the enhanced model with a parsimonious model consisting of known diabetes risk factors in a real-world environment, where missing values are common and prevalent. Furthermore, we analyzed novel and known risk factors emerging from the model at different age groups at different stages before the onset. Parsimonious model using 21 classic diabetes risk factors resulted in area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.75 for diabetes prediction within a 2-year window following the baseline. The enhanced model increased the AUC to 0.80, with about 900 variables selected as predictive (p differences between AUCs). Similar improvements were observed for models predicting diabetes onset 1-3 years and 2-4 years after baseline. The enhanced model improved positive predictive value by at least 50% and identified novel surrogate risk factors for type 2 diabetes, such as chronic liver disease (odds ratio [OR] 3.71), high alanine aminotransferase (OR 2.26), esophageal reflux (OR 1.85), and history of acute bronchitis (OR 1.45). Liver risk factors emerge later in the process of diabetes development compared with obesity-related factors such as hypertension and high hemoglobin A1c. In conclusion, population-level risk

  4. A self-interaction-free local hybrid functional: Accurate binding energies vis-à-vis accurate ionization potentials from Kohn-Sham eigenvalues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, Tobias; Kümmel, Stephan; Kraisler, Eli; Makmal, Adi; Kronik, Leeor

    2014-01-01

    We present and test a new approximation for the exchange-correlation (xc) energy of Kohn-Sham density functional theory. It combines exact exchange with a compatible non-local correlation functional. The functional is by construction free of one-electron self-interaction, respects constraints derived from uniform coordinate scaling, and has the correct asymptotic behavior of the xc energy density. It contains one parameter that is not determined ab initio. We investigate whether it is possible to construct a functional that yields accurate binding energies and affords other advantages, specifically Kohn-Sham eigenvalues that reliably reflect ionization potentials. Tests for a set of atoms and small molecules show that within our local-hybrid form accurate binding energies can be achieved by proper optimization of the free parameter in our functional, along with an improvement in dissociation energy curves and in Kohn-Sham eigenvalues. However, the correspondence of the latter to experimental ionization potentials is not yet satisfactory, and if we choose to optimize their prediction, a rather different value of the functional's parameter is obtained. We put this finding in a larger context by discussing similar observations for other functionals and possible directions for further functional development that our findings suggest

  5. A universal PWR spectral history correction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutt, P.K.; Nunn, D.L.

    1989-01-01

    The accuracy of a form of universal correction for the difference between depletion conditions assumed in PWR assembly lattice calculations and those experienced in a reactor burn-up is investigated. The correction is based on lattice calculations in which only one such depletion history difference, depletion at two different water densities, is explicitly represented by lattice calculations. The assumption is made that other historical effects bear the same relationship to an appropriate time-average of the two-group neutron flux spectrum. The correction is shown to be accurate for the most important historical effects, depletion with burnable absorbers inserted, control rods inserted or at a different soluble boron level, in addition to density itself. The correction is less accurate for representing depletion at a different fuel or coolant temperature but even in these cases gives an improvement over no correction. In addition it is argued that these historic temperature effects are likely to be of minor importance. (author)

  6. An evolutionary model-based algorithm for accurate phylogenetic breakpoint mapping and subtype prediction in HIV-1.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei L Kosakovsky Pond

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Genetically diverse pathogens (such as Human Immunodeficiency virus type 1, HIV-1 are frequently stratified into phylogenetically or immunologically defined subtypes for classification purposes. Computational identification of such subtypes is helpful in surveillance, epidemiological analysis and detection of novel variants, e.g., circulating recombinant forms in HIV-1. A number of conceptually and technically different techniques have been proposed for determining the subtype of a query sequence, but there is not a universally optimal approach. We present a model-based phylogenetic method for automatically subtyping an HIV-1 (or other viral or bacterial sequence, mapping the location of breakpoints and assigning parental sequences in recombinant strains as well as computing confidence levels for the inferred quantities. Our Subtype Classification Using Evolutionary ALgorithms (SCUEAL procedure is shown to perform very well in a variety of simulation scenarios, runs in parallel when multiple sequences are being screened, and matches or exceeds the performance of existing approaches on typical empirical cases. We applied SCUEAL to all available polymerase (pol sequences from two large databases, the Stanford Drug Resistance database and the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Comparing with subtypes which had previously been assigned revealed that a minor but substantial (approximately 5% fraction of pure subtype sequences may in fact be within- or inter-subtype recombinants. A free implementation of SCUEAL is provided as a module for the HyPhy package and the Datamonkey web server. Our method is especially useful when an accurate automatic classification of an unknown strain is desired, and is positioned to complement and extend faster but less accurate methods. Given the increasingly frequent use of HIV subtype information in studies focusing on the effect of subtype on treatment, clinical outcome, pathogenicity and vaccine design, the importance

  7. Lingua patientis: new words for patient communication and history taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Donald F

    2017-11-01

    The English language sometimes fails in its ability to describe the severity or complexity of medical symptoms and complaints. In frustration, patients (or families) occasionally create new words to convey the subtleties of their medical history. Although medicine has created a comprehensive technical lexicon for physicians, we have failed to develop a corresponding patient-centric vocabulary (lingua patientis) that provides more accurate symptom description. The social networking of lingua patientis words might enhance history taking and afford improved appreciation of disease impact on individual patients. The English language is renowned for its capacity for flexibility and adaptability - we need to exploit this capacity for the benefit of our patients.

  8. Simplified non-linear time-history analysis based on the Theory of Plasticity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Costa, Joao Domingues

    2005-01-01

    This paper aims at giving a contribution to the problem of developing simplified non-linear time-history (NLTH) analysis of structures which dynamical response is mainly governed by plastic deformations, able to provide designers with sufficiently accurate results. The method to be presented...... is based on the Theory of Plasticity. Firstly, the formulation and the computational procedure to perform time-history analysis of a rigid-plastic single degree of freedom (SDOF) system are presented. The necessary conditions for the method to incorporate pinching as well as strength degradation...

  9. Crashworthiness Assessment of Auto-body Members Considering the Fabrication Histories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huh, Hoon; Song, Jung-Han; Kim, Kee-Poong; Kim, Hyun-Sub

    2005-01-01

    This paper is concerned with crashworthiness of auto-body members considering the effect of fabrication. Most auto-body members are fabricated with sheet metal forming process and welding process that induce fabrication histories such as the plastic work hardening, non-uniform thickness distribution and residual stress. Crash simulation is carried out for auto-body members with LS-DYNA3D in order to identify the fabrication effect on the crashworthiness. The analysis calculated crash mode, the reaction force and the energy absorption for crashworthiness assessment with the forming effect. The result shows that the crash analysis with considering the forming history leads to a different result from that without considering the forming effect. The analysis results demonstrate that the design of auto-body members should be carried out considering the forming history for accurate assessment of the crashworthiness.

  10. Microarray-based cancer prediction using soft computing approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaosheng; Gotoh, Osamu

    2009-05-26

    One of the difficulties in using gene expression profiles to predict cancer is how to effectively select a few informative genes to construct accurate prediction models from thousands or ten thousands of genes. We screen highly discriminative genes and gene pairs to create simple prediction models involved in single genes or gene pairs on the basis of soft computing approach and rough set theory. Accurate cancerous prediction is obtained when we apply the simple prediction models for four cancerous gene expression datasets: CNS tumor, colon tumor, lung cancer and DLBCL. Some genes closely correlated with the pathogenesis of specific or general cancers are identified. In contrast with other models, our models are simple, effective and robust. Meanwhile, our models are interpretable for they are based on decision rules. Our results demonstrate that very simple models may perform well on cancerous molecular prediction and important gene markers of cancer can be detected if the gene selection approach is chosen reasonably.

  11. Quasi-static analysis of flexible pavements based on predicted frequencies using Fast Fourier Transform and Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Reza Ghanizadeh

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available New trend in design of flexible pavements is mechanistic-empirical approach. The first step for applying this method is analyzing the pavement structure for several times and computation of critical stresses and strains, which needs a fast analysis method with good accuracy. This paper aims to introduce a new rapid pavement analysis approach, which can consider the history of loading and rate effect. To this end, 1200 flexible pavement sections were analyzed, and equivalent frequencies (EF were calculated using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT method at various depths of asphalt layer. A nonlinear regression equation has been presented for determining EF at different depths of asphalt layer. For more accurate predicting of EF at low frequencies, a feed-forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN was employed, which allows accurate prediction of EF. The frequencies obtained by the proposed regression equation and ANN were compared with frequencies observed in Virginia Smart Road project, and it was found that there is a good agreement between observed and predicted frequencies. Comparison of quasi-static analysis of flexible pavements by frequencies obtained using FFT method and full dynamic analysis by 3D-Move program approves that the critical responses of pavement computed by proposed quasi-static analysis approach are comparable to critical responses computed using full dynamic analysis. Keywords: Equivalent frequency, Fast Fourier Transform (FFT, Pavement quasi-static analysis, Dynamic modulus, Artificial Neural Network (ANN

  12. The Cambridge Illustrated History of Astronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoskin, Michael

    Expertly written and lavishly illustrated, The Cambridge Illustrated History of Astronomy offers a unique account of astronomical theory and practice from antiquity to the present day. How did Moslems of the Middle Ages use astronomy to calculate the direction of Mecca from far-flung corners of the Islamic world? Who was the only ancient Greek to suspect that the earth might revolve around the sun? How did Christopher Columbus abuse his knowledge of a lunar eclipse predicted by an astronomical almanac? Packed with anecdotes and intriguing detail, this book describes how we observed the sky and interpreted what we saw at different periods of history; how this influenced our beliefs and mythology; and how great astronomers contributed to what we now know. The result is a lively and highly visual history of astronomy - a compelling read for specialists and non-specialists alike.

  13. Stress-Induced Impairment of a Working Memory Task: Role of Spiking Rate and Spiking History Predicted Discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devilbiss, David M.; Jenison, Rick L.; Berridge, Craig W.

    2012-01-01

    Stress, pervasive in society, contributes to over half of all work place accidents a year and over time can contribute to a variety of psychiatric disorders including depression, schizophrenia, and post-traumatic stress disorder. Stress impairs higher cognitive processes, dependent on the prefrontal cortex (PFC) and that involve maintenance and integration of information over extended periods, including working memory and attention. Substantial evidence has demonstrated a relationship between patterns of PFC neuron spiking activity (action-potential discharge) and components of delayed-response tasks used to probe PFC-dependent cognitive function in rats and monkeys. During delay periods of these tasks, persistent spiking activity is posited to be essential for the maintenance of information for working memory and attention. However, the degree to which stress-induced impairment in PFC-dependent cognition involves changes in task-related spiking rates or the ability for PFC neurons to retain information over time remains unknown. In the current study, spiking activity was recorded from the medial PFC of rats performing a delayed-response task of working memory during acute noise stress (93 db). Spike history-predicted discharge (SHPD) for PFC neurons was quantified as a measure of the degree to which ongoing neuronal discharge can be predicted by past spiking activity and reflects the degree to which past information is retained by these neurons over time. We found that PFC neuron discharge is predicted by their past spiking patterns for nearly one second. Acute stress impaired SHPD, selectively during delay intervals of the task, and simultaneously impaired task performance. Despite the reduction in delay-related SHPD, stress increased delay-related spiking rates. These findings suggest that neural codes utilizing SHPD within PFC networks likely reflects an additional important neurophysiological mechanism for maintenance of past information over time. Stress

  14. Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part I: Forward models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

    2011-01-01

    Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights.

  15. Accuracy of ultrasound for the prediction of placenta accreta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, Zachary S; Eller, Alexandra G; Kennedy, Anne M; Richards, Douglas S; Winter, Thomas C; Woodward, Paula J; Silver, Robert M

    2014-08-01

    Ultrasound has been reported to be greater than 90% sensitive for the diagnosis of accreta. Prior studies may be subject to bias because of single expert observers, suspicion for accreta, and knowledge of risk factors. We aimed to assess the accuracy of ultrasound for the prediction of accreta. Patients with accreta at a single academic center were matched to patients with placenta previa, but no accreta, by year of delivery. Ultrasound studies with views of the placenta were collected, deidentified, blinded to clinical history, and placed in random sequence. Six investigators prospectively interpreted each study for the presence of accreta and findings reported to be associated with its diagnosis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive, negative predictive value, and accuracy were calculated. Characteristics of accurate findings were compared using univariate and multivariate analyses. Six investigators examined 229 ultrasound studies from 55 patients with accreta and 56 controls for 1374 independent observations. 1205/1374 (87.7% overall, 90% controls, 84.9% cases) studies were given a diagnosis. There were 371 (27.0%) true positives; 81 (5.9%) false positives; 533 (38.8%) true negatives, 220 (16.0%) false negatives, and 169 (12.3%) with uncertain diagnosis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy were 53.5%, 88.0%, 82.1%, 64.8%, and 64.8%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, true positives were more likely to have placental lacunae (odds ratio [OR], 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-1.6), loss of retroplacental clear space (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.1-4.9), or abnormalities on color Doppler (OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.8-2.4). Ultrasound for the prediction of placenta accreta may not be as sensitive as previously described. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Accurate Gas Phase Formation Enthalpies of Alloys and Refractories Decomposition Products

    KAUST Repository

    Minenkov, Yury

    2017-01-17

    Accurate gas phase formation enthalpies, ΔHf, of metal oxides and halides are critical for the prediction of the stability of high temperature materials used in the aerospace and nuclear industries. Unfortunately, the experimental ΔHf values of these compounds in the most used databases, such as the NIST-JANAF database, are often reported with large inaccuracy, while some other ΔHf values clearly differ from the value predicted by CCSD(T) methods. To address this point, in this work we systematically predicted the ΔHf values of a series of these compounds having a group 4, 6, or 14 metal. The ΔHf values in question were derived within a composite Feller-Dixon-Peterson (FDP) scheme based protocol that combines the DLPNO-CCSD(T) enthalpy of ad hoc designed reactions and the experimental ΔHf values of few reference complexes. In agreement with other theoretical studies, we predict the ΔHf values for TiOCl2, TiOF2, GeF2, and SnF4 to be significantly different from the values tabulated in NIST-JANAF and other sources, which suggests that the tabulated experimental values are inaccurate. Similarly, the predicted ΔHf values for HfCl2, HfBr2, HfI2, MoOF4, MoCl6, WOF4, WOCl4, GeO2, SnO2, PbBr4, PbI4, and PbO2 also clearly differ from the tabulated experimental values, again suggesting large inaccuracy in the experimental values. In the case when largely different experimental values are available, we point to the value that is in better agreement with our results. We expect the ΔHf values reported in this work to be quite accurate, and thus, they might be used in thermodynamic calculations, because the effects from core correlation, relativistic effects, and basis set incompleteness were included in the DLPNO-CCSD(T) calculations. T1 and T2 values were thoroughly monitored as indicators of the quality of the reference Hartree-Fock orbitals (T1) and potential multireference character of the systems (T2).

  17. Molecular acidity: An accurate description with information-theoretic approach in density functional reactivity theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Xiaofang; Rong, Chunying; Zhong, Aiguo; Lu, Tian; Liu, Shubin

    2018-01-15

    Molecular acidity is one of the important physiochemical properties of a molecular system, yet its accurate calculation and prediction are still an unresolved problem in the literature. In this work, we propose to make use of the quantities from the information-theoretic (IT) approach in density functional reactivity theory and provide an accurate description of molecular acidity from a completely new perspective. To illustrate our point, five different categories of acidic series, singly and doubly substituted benzoic acids, singly substituted benzenesulfinic acids, benzeneseleninic acids, phenols, and alkyl carboxylic acids, have been thoroughly examined. We show that using IT quantities such as Shannon entropy, Fisher information, Ghosh-Berkowitz-Parr entropy, information gain, Onicescu information energy, and relative Rényi entropy, one is able to simultaneously predict experimental pKa values of these different categories of compounds. Because of the universality of the quantities employed in this work, which are all density dependent, our approach should be general and be applicable to other systems as well. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Material security, life history, and moralistic religions: A cross-cultural examination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Cody T.; Apicella, Coren; Atkinson, Quentin D.; Cohen, Emma; McNamara, Rita Anne; Willard, Aiyana K.; Xygalatas, Dimitris; Norenzayan, Ara; Henrich, Joseph

    2018-01-01

    Researchers have recently proposed that “moralistic” religions—those with moral doctrines, moralistic supernatural punishment, and lower emphasis on ritual—emerged as an effect of greater wealth and material security. One interpretation appeals to life history theory, predicting that individuals with “slow life history” strategies will be more attracted to moralistic traditions as a means to judge those with “fast life history” strategies. As we had reservations about the validity of this application of life history theory, we tested these predictions with a data set consisting of 592 individuals from eight diverse societies. Our sample includes individuals from a wide range of traditions, including world religions such as Buddhism, Hinduism and Christianity, but also local traditions rooted in beliefs in animism, ancestor worship, and worship of spirits associated with nature. We first test for the presence of associations between material security, years of formal education, and reproductive success. Consistent with popular life history predictions, we find evidence that material security and education are associated with reduced reproduction. Building on this, we then test whether or not these demographic factors predict the moral concern, punitiveness, attributed knowledge-breadth, and frequency of ritual devotions towards two deities in each society. Here, we find no reliable evidence of a relationship between number of children, material security, or formal education and the individual-level religious beliefs and behaviors. We conclude with a discussion of why life-history theory is an inadequate interpretation for the emergence of factors typifying the moralistic traditions. PMID:29513766

  19. Can magnetic resonance imaging accurately predict concordant pain provocation during provocative disc injection?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Chang Ho; Kim, Yun Hwan; Kim, Jung Hyuk; Chung, Kyoo Byung; Sung, Deuk Jae; Lee, Sang-Heon; Derby, Richard

    2009-01-01

    To correlate magnetic resonance (MR) image findings with pain response by provocation discography in patients with discogenic low back pain, with an emphasis on the combination analysis of a high intensity zone (HIZ) and disc contour abnormalities. Sixty-two patients (aged 17-68 years) with axial low back pain that was likely to be disc related underwent lumbar discography (178 discs tested). The MR images were evaluated for disc degeneration, disc contour abnormalities, HIZ, and endplate abnormalities. Based on the combination of an HIZ and disc contour abnormalities, four classes were determined: (1) normal or bulging disc without HIZ; (2) normal or bulging disc with HIZ; (3) disc protrusion without HIZ; (4) disc protrusion with HIZ. These MR image findings and a new combined MR classification were analyzed in the base of concordant pain determined by discography. Disc protrusion with HIZ [sensitivity 45.5%; specificity 97.8%; positive predictive value (PPV), 87.0%] correlated significantly with concordant pain provocation (P < 0.01). A normal or bulging disc with HIZ was not associated with reproduction of pain. Disc degeneration (sensitivity 95.4%; specificity 38.8%; PPV 33.9%), disc protrusion (sensitivity 68.2%; specificity 80.6%; PPV 53.6%), and HIZ (sensitivity 56.8%; specificity 83.6%; PPV 53.2%) were not helpful in the identification of a disc with concordant pain. The proposed MR classification is useful to predict a disc with concordant pain. Disc protrusion with HIZ on MR imaging predicted positive discography in patients with discogenic low back pain. (orig.)

  20. Base pair probability estimates improve the prediction accuracy of RNA non-canonical base pairs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael F Sloma

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of RNA tertiary structure from sequence is an important problem, but generating accurate structure models for even short sequences remains difficult. Predictions of RNA tertiary structure tend to be least accurate in loop regions, where non-canonical pairs are important for determining the details of structure. Non-canonical pairs can be predicted using a knowledge-based model of structure that scores nucleotide cyclic motifs, or NCMs. In this work, a partition function algorithm is introduced that allows the estimation of base pairing probabilities for both canonical and non-canonical interactions. Pairs that are predicted to be probable are more likely to be found in the true structure than pairs of lower probability. Pair probability estimates can be further improved by predicting the structure conserved across multiple homologous sequences using the TurboFold algorithm. These pairing probabilities, used in concert with prior knowledge of the canonical secondary structure, allow accurate inference of non-canonical pairs, an important step towards accurate prediction of the full tertiary structure. Software to predict non-canonical base pairs and pairing probabilities is now provided as part of the RNAstructure software package.

  1. Base pair probability estimates improve the prediction accuracy of RNA non-canonical base pairs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloma, Michael F; Mathews, David H

    2017-11-01

    Prediction of RNA tertiary structure from sequence is an important problem, but generating accurate structure models for even short sequences remains difficult. Predictions of RNA tertiary structure tend to be least accurate in loop regions, where non-canonical pairs are important for determining the details of structure. Non-canonical pairs can be predicted using a knowledge-based model of structure that scores nucleotide cyclic motifs, or NCMs. In this work, a partition function algorithm is introduced that allows the estimation of base pairing probabilities for both canonical and non-canonical interactions. Pairs that are predicted to be probable are more likely to be found in the true structure than pairs of lower probability. Pair probability estimates can be further improved by predicting the structure conserved across multiple homologous sequences using the TurboFold algorithm. These pairing probabilities, used in concert with prior knowledge of the canonical secondary structure, allow accurate inference of non-canonical pairs, an important step towards accurate prediction of the full tertiary structure. Software to predict non-canonical base pairs and pairing probabilities is now provided as part of the RNAstructure software package.

  2. The prediction and discovery of Rayleigh line fine structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabelinskii, Immanuil L

    2000-01-01

    The history of the theoretical prediction and experimental discovery of the Rayleigh line fine structure (which belongs to one of the most important phenomena in optics and physics of condensed matter) is discussed along with the history of first publications concerning this topic. (from the history of physics)

  3. AMID: Accurate Magnetic Indoor Localization Using Deep Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Namkyoung Lee

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Geomagnetic-based indoor positioning has drawn a great attention from academia and industry due to its advantage of being operable without infrastructure support and its reliable signal characteristics. However, it must overcome the problems of ambiguity that originate with the nature of geomagnetic data. Most studies manage this problem by incorporating particle filters along with inertial sensors. However, they cannot yield reliable positioning results because the inertial sensors in smartphones cannot precisely predict the movement of users. There have been attempts to recognize the magnetic sequence pattern, but these attempts are proven only in a one-dimensional space, because magnetic intensity fluctuates severely with even a slight change of locations. This paper proposes accurate magnetic indoor localization using deep learning (AMID, an indoor positioning system that recognizes magnetic sequence patterns using a deep neural network. Features are extracted from magnetic sequences, and then the deep neural network is used for classifying the sequences by patterns that are generated by nearby magnetic landmarks. Locations are estimated by detecting the landmarks. AMID manifested the proposed features and deep learning as an outstanding classifier, revealing the potential of accurate magnetic positioning with smartphone sensors alone. The landmark detection accuracy was over 80% in a two-dimensional environment.

  4. Parenting in infancy and self-regulation in preschool: an investigation of the role of attachment history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birmingham, R S; Bub, K L; Vaughn, B E

    2017-04-01

    Parenting and attachment are critical in the emergence of self-regulation (SR) in preschool. However, most studies use general indexes of parenting quality, failing to explore the unique contributions of sensitivity and home quality to SR. Further, the nature of the interplay between parenting and attachment history is not well understood. Using a sample of 938 children from The National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, a series of structural equation models were fit to determine whether sensitivity and home quality concurrently predicted SR at 54 months, and whether attachment mediated or moderated these pathways. Results suggest that both sensitivity and home quality uniquely predict SR. Further, these early parenting variables were each indirectly associated with SR through children's attachment history. That is, higher levels of sensitivity and home quality predicted secure attachment history, which, along with parenting, predicted more advanced SR skills at 54 months. No moderated pathways emerged, suggesting that attachment history may be best conceptualized as a mediating mechanism.

  5. Primates and the Evolution of Long-Slow Life Histories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, James Holland

    2011-01-01

    Summary Primates are characterized by relatively late ages at first reproduction, long lives and low fertility. Together, these traits define a life-history of reduced reproductive effort. Understanding the optimal allocation of reproductive effort, and specifically reduced reproductive effort, has been one of the key problems motivating the development of life history theory. Because of their unusual constellation of life-history traits, primates play an important role in the continued development of life history theory. In this review, I present the evidence for the reduced reproductive effort life histories of primates and discuss the ways that such life-history tactics are understood in contemporary theory. Such tactics are particularly consistent with the predictions of stochastic demographic models, suggesting a key role for environmental variability in the evolution of primate life histories. The tendency for primates to specialize in high-quality, high-variability food items may make them particularly susceptible to environmental variability and explain their low reproductive-effort tactics. I discuss recent applications of life history theory to human evolution and emphasize the continuity between models used to explain peculiarities of human reproduction and senescence with the long, slow life histories of primates more generally. PMID:21959161

  6. Profit Driven Decision Trees for Churn Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Höppner, Sebastiaan; Stripling, Eugen; Baesens, Bart; Broucke, Seppe vanden; Verdonck, Tim

    2017-01-01

    Customer retention campaigns increasingly rely on predictive models to detect potential churners in a vast customer base. From the perspective of machine learning, the task of predicting customer churn can be presented as a binary classification problem. Using data on historic behavior, classification algorithms are built with the purpose of accurately predicting the probability of a customer defecting. The predictive churn models are then commonly selected based on accuracy related performan...

  7. NetMHCpan, a method for MHC class I binding prediction beyond humans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoof, Ilka; Peters, B; Sidney, J

    2009-01-01

    molecules. We show that the NetMHCpan-2.0 method can accurately predict binding to uncharacterized HLA molecules, including HLA-C and HLA-G. Moreover, NetMHCpan-2.0 is demonstrated to accurately predict peptide binding to chimpanzee and macaque MHC class I molecules. The power of NetMHCpan-2.0 to guide...

  8. History of geological mapping of the Holocene Rhine-Meuse delta, the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berendsen, H.J.A.

    2007-01-01

    A brief overview is given of the history of geological mapping of the Holocene Rhine-Meuse delta. The first accurate map of the delta, based on field observations, was made by Vink (1926). The geological map of the Netherlands, scale 1 : 50,000, made by the ‘Geologische Stichting’ (1927 - 1938)

  9. Towards more accurate wind and solar power prediction by improving NWP model physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, Andrea; Köhler, Carmen; von Schumann, Jonas; Ritter, Bodo

    2014-05-01

    The growing importance and successive expansion of renewable energies raise new challenges for decision makers, economists, transmission system operators, scientists and many more. In this interdisciplinary field, the role of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is to reduce the errors and provide an a priori estimate of remaining uncertainties associated with the large share of weather-dependent power sources. For this purpose it is essential to optimize NWP model forecasts with respect to those prognostic variables which are relevant for wind and solar power plants. An improved weather forecast serves as the basis for a sophisticated power forecasts. Consequently, a well-timed energy trading on the stock market, and electrical grid stability can be maintained. The German Weather Service (DWD) currently is involved with two projects concerning research in the field of renewable energy, namely ORKA*) and EWeLiNE**). Whereas the latter is in collaboration with the Fraunhofer Institute (IWES), the project ORKA is led by energy & meteo systems (emsys). Both cooperate with German transmission system operators. The goal of the projects is to improve wind and photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts by combining optimized NWP and enhanced power forecast models. In this context, the German Weather Service aims to improve its model system, including the ensemble forecasting system, by working on data assimilation, model physics and statistical post processing. This presentation is focused on the identification of critical weather situations and the associated errors in the German regional NWP model COSMO-DE. First steps leading to improved physical parameterization schemes within the NWP-model are presented. Wind mast measurements reaching up to 200 m height above ground are used for the estimation of the (NWP) wind forecast error at heights relevant for wind energy plants. One particular problem is the daily cycle in wind speed. The transition from stable stratification during

  10. Prediction of tides using back-propagation neural networks

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.

    Prediction of tides is very much essential for human activities and to reduce the construction cost in marine environment. This paper presents an application of the artificial neural network with back-propagation procedures for accurate prediction...

  11. Comparison of Predictive Modeling Methods of Aircraft Landing Speed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diallo, Ousmane H.

    2012-01-01

    Expected increases in air traffic demand have stimulated the development of air traffic control tools intended to assist the air traffic controller in accurately and precisely spacing aircraft landing at congested airports. Such tools will require an accurate landing-speed prediction to increase throughput while decreasing necessary controller interventions for avoiding separation violations. There are many practical challenges to developing an accurate landing-speed model that has acceptable prediction errors. This paper discusses the development of a near-term implementation, using readily available information, to estimate/model final approach speed from the top of the descent phase of flight to the landing runway. As a first approach, all variables found to contribute directly to the landing-speed prediction model are used to build a multi-regression technique of the response surface equation (RSE). Data obtained from operations of a major airlines for a passenger transport aircraft type to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport are used to predict the landing speed. The approach was promising because it decreased the standard deviation of the landing-speed error prediction by at least 18% from the standard deviation of the baseline error, depending on the gust condition at the airport. However, when the number of variables is reduced to the most likely obtainable at other major airports, the RSE model shows little improvement over the existing methods. Consequently, a neural network that relies on a nonlinear regression technique is utilized as an alternative modeling approach. For the reduced number of variables cases, the standard deviation of the neural network models errors represent over 5% reduction compared to the RSE model errors, and at least 10% reduction over the baseline predicted landing-speed error standard deviation. Overall, the constructed models predict the landing-speed more accurately and precisely than the current state-of-the-art.

  12. Predictive genomics: A cancer hallmark network framework for predicting tumor clinical phenotypes using genome sequencing data

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Edwin; Zaman, Naif; Mcgee, Shauna; Milanese, Jean-Sébastien; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali; O'Connor, Maureen

    2014-01-01

    We discuss a cancer hallmark network framework for modelling genome-sequencing data to predict cancer clonal evolution and associated clinical phenotypes. Strategies of using this framework in conjunction with genome sequencing data in an attempt to predict personalized drug targets, drug resistance, and metastasis for a cancer patient, as well as cancer risks for a healthy individual are discussed. Accurate prediction of cancer clonal evolution and clinical phenotypes will have substantial i...

  13. A Review of Computational Methods to Predict the Risk of Rupture of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tejas Canchi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Computational methods have played an important role in health care in recent years, as determining parameters that affect a certain medical condition is not possible in experimental conditions in many cases. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD methods have been used to accurately determine the nature of blood flow in the cardiovascular and nervous systems and air flow in the respiratory system, thereby giving the surgeon a diagnostic tool to plan treatment accordingly. Machine learning or data mining (MLD methods are currently used to develop models that learn from retrospective data to make a prediction regarding factors affecting the progression of a disease. These models have also been successful in incorporating factors such as patient history and occupation. MLD models can be used as a predictive tool to determine rupture potential in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA along with CFD-based prediction of parameters like wall shear stress and pressure distributions. A combination of these computer methods can be pivotal in bridging the gap between translational and outcomes research in medicine. This paper reviews the use of computational methods in the diagnosis and treatment of AAA.

  14. Comparison of loline alkaloid gene clusters across fungal endophytes: predicting the co-regulatory sequence motifs and the evolutionary history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutil, Brandi L; Greenwald, Charles; Liu, Gang; Spiering, Martin J; Schardl, Christopher L; Wilkinson, Heather H

    2007-10-01

    LOL, a fungal secondary metabolite gene cluster found in Epichloë and Neotyphodium species, is responsible for production of insecticidal loline alkaloids. To analyze the genetic architecture and to predict the evolutionary history of LOL, we compared five clusters from four fungal species (single clusters from Epichloë festucae, Neotyphodium sp. PauTG-1, Neotyphodium coenophialum, and two clusters we previously characterized in Neotyphodium uncinatum). Using PhyloCon to compare putative lol gene promoter regions, we have identified four motifs conserved across the lol genes in all five clusters. Each motif has significant similarity to known fungal transcription factor binding sites in the TRANSFAC database. Conservation of these motifs is further support for the hypothesis that the lol genes are co-regulated. Interestingly, the history of asexual Neotyphodium spp. includes multiple interspecific hybridization events. Comparing clusters from three Neotyphodium species and E. festucae allowed us to determine which Epichloë ancestors are the most likely contributors of LOL in these asexual species. For example, while no present day Epichloë typhina isolates are known to produce lolines, our data support the hypothesis that the E. typhina ancestor(s) of three asexual endophyte species contained a LOL gene cluster. Thus, these data support a model of evolution in which the polymorphism in loline alkaloid production phenotypes among endophyte species is likely due to the loss of the trait over time.

  15. Plague in Iran: its history and current status

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdolrazagh Hashemi Shahraki

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Plague remains a public health concern worldwide, particularly in old foci. Multiple epidemics of this disease have been recorded throughout the history of Iran. Despite the long-standing history of human plague in Iran, it remains difficult to obtain an accurate overview of the history and current status of plague in Iran. METHODS: In this review, available data and reports on cases and outbreaks of human plague in the past and present in Iran and in neighboring countries were collected, and information was compiled regarding when, where, and how many cases occurred. RESULTS: This paper considers the history of plague in Persia (the predecessor of today’s Iran and has a brief review of plague in countries in the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region, including a range of countries in the Middle East and North Africa. CONCLUSIONS: Since Iran has experienced outbreaks of plague for several centuries, neighboring countries have reported the disease in recent years, the disease can be silent for decades, and the circulation of Yersinia pestis has been reported among rodents and dogs in western Iran, more attention should be paid to disease monitoring in areas with previously reported human cases and in high-risk regions with previous epizootic and enzootic activity.

  16. Plague in Iran: its history and current status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashemi Shahraki, Abdolrazagh; Carniel, Elizabeth; Mostafavi, Ehsan

    2016-01-01

    Plague remains a public health concern worldwide, particularly in old foci. Multiple epidemics of this disease have been recorded throughout the history of Iran. Despite the long-standing history of human plague in Iran, it remains difficult to obtain an accurate overview of the history and current status of plague in Iran. In this review, available data and reports on cases and outbreaks of human plague in the past and present in Iran and in neighboring countries were collected, and information was compiled regarding when, where, and how many cases occurred. This paper considers the history of plague in Persia (the predecessor of today's Iran) and has a brief review of plague in countries in the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region, including a range of countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Since Iran has experienced outbreaks of plague for several centuries, neighboring countries have reported the disease in recent years, the disease can be silent for decades, and the circulation of Yersinia pestis has been reported among rodents and dogs in western Iran, more attention should be paid to disease monitoring in areas with previously reported human cases and in high-risk regions with previous epizootic and enzootic activity.

  17. PSORTb 3.0: improved protein subcellular localization prediction with refined localization subcategories and predictive capabilities for all prokaryotes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Nancy Y; Wagner, James R; Laird, Matthew R; Melli, Gabor; Rey, Sébastien; Lo, Raymond; Dao, Phuong; Sahinalp, S Cenk; Ester, Martin; Foster, Leonard J; Brinkman, Fiona S L

    2010-07-01

    PSORTb has remained the most precise bacterial protein subcellular localization (SCL) predictor since it was first made available in 2003. However, the recall needs to be improved and no accurate SCL predictors yet make predictions for archaea, nor differentiate important localization subcategories, such as proteins targeted to a host cell or bacterial hyperstructures/organelles. Such improvements should preferably be encompassed in a freely available web-based predictor that can also be used as a standalone program. We developed PSORTb version 3.0 with improved recall, higher proteome-scale prediction coverage, and new refined localization subcategories. It is the first SCL predictor specifically geared for all prokaryotes, including archaea and bacteria with atypical membrane/cell wall topologies. It features an improved standalone program, with a new batch results delivery system complementing its web interface. We evaluated the most accurate SCL predictors using 5-fold cross validation plus we performed an independent proteomics analysis, showing that PSORTb 3.0 is the most accurate but can benefit from being complemented by Proteome Analyst predictions. http://www.psort.org/psortb (download open source software or use the web interface). psort-mail@sfu.ca Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  18. Self-reported inhibition predicts history of suicide attempts in bipolar disorder and major depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponsoni, André; Branco, Laura Damiani; Cotrena, Charles; Shansis, Flávio Milman; Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo; Fonseca, Rochele Paz

    2018-04-01

    Studies have reliably identified an association between suicide attempts and executive functions such as decision making (DM) and inhibitory control (IC) in patients with mood disorders. As such, the present study aimed to investigate the association between inhibition, DM, impulsivity and the history of suicide attempts in individuals with bipolar (BD) or major depressive disorder (MDD), identifying which assessment instruments may be most strongly associated with suicide in clinical samples. The sample included 80 control subjects and two groups of patients with BD and MDD, matched by age and education (26 with a history of suicide attempts [MD+], and 26 with no such history [MD-]). Participants completed behavioral and self-report measures of DM and IC, which were compared between groups using ANCOVA, followed by logistic regression for patients with mood disorders only, and the presence or absence of a history of suicide as the outcome. Cognitive performance did not differ between groups. The MD+ group showed significantly higher motor and attentional impulsivity on the BIS-11 than the MD- and control groups. A regression analysis containing these scores showed that motor impulsivity was the only significant predictor of a history of suicide (OR = 1.14; 95%CI 1.00-1.30). Self-reported motor impulsivity was a significant predictor of suicide. These findings underscore the importance of self-report measures in neuropsychological assessment, and their contributions to the management and prognosis of patients with mood disorders. Lastly, they point to the role of impulsivity as a target for interventions and public policy on suicide prevention. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Revised estimates of Greenland ice sheet thinning histories based on ice-core records

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lecavalier, B.S.; Milne, G.A.; Fisher, D.A.

    2013-01-01

    -based reconstructions and, to some extent, the estimated elevation histories. A key component of the ice core analysis involved removing the influence of vertical surface motion on the dO signal measured from the Agassiz and Renland ice caps. We re-visit the original analysis with the intent to determine if the use...... of more accurate land uplift curves can account for some of the above noted discrepancy. To improve on the original analysis, we apply a geophysical model of glacial isostatic adjustment calibrated to sea-level records from the Queen Elizabeth Islands and Greenland to calculate the influence of land...... in this selection is further complicated by the possible influence of Innuitian ice during the early Holocene (12-8 ka BP). Our results indicate that a more accurate treatment of the uplift correction leads to elevation histories that are, in general, shifted down relative to the original curves at GRIP, NGRIP, DYE...

  20. Stonehenge: A Simple and Accurate Predictor of Lunar Eclipses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Challener, S.

    1999-12-01

    Over the last century, much has been written about the astronomical significance of Stonehenge. The rage peaked in the mid to late 1960s when new computer technology enabled astronomers to make the first complete search for celestial alignments. Because there are hundreds of rocks or holes at Stonehenge and dozens of bright objects in the sky, the quest was fraught with obvious statistical problems. A storm of controversy followed and the subject nearly vanished from print. Only a handful of these alignments remain compelling. Today, few astronomers and still fewer archaeologists would argue that Stonehenge served primarily as an observatory. Instead, Stonehenge probably served as a sacred meeting place, which was consecrated by certain celestial events. These would include the sun's risings and settings at the solstices and possibly some lunar risings as well. I suggest that Stonehenge was also used to predict lunar eclipses. While Hawkins and Hoyle also suggested that Stonehenge was used in this way, their methods are complex and they make use of only early, minor, or outlying areas of Stonehenge. In contrast, I suggest a way that makes use of the imposing, central region of Stonehenge; the area built during the final phase of activity. To predict every lunar eclipse without predicting eclipses that do not occur, I use the less familiar lunar cycle of 47 lunar months. By moving markers about the Sarsen Circle, the Bluestone Circle, and the Bluestone Horseshoe, all umbral lunar eclipses can be predicted accurately.

  1. Can We Predict Patient Wait Time?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pianykh, Oleg S; Rosenthal, Daniel I

    2015-10-01

    The importance of patient wait-time management and predictability can hardly be overestimated: For most hospitals, it is the patient queues that drive and define every bit of clinical workflow. The objective of this work was to study the predictability of patient wait time and identify its most influential predictors. To solve this problem, we developed a comprehensive list of 25 wait-related parameters, suggested in earlier work and observed in our own experiments. All parameters were chosen as derivable from a typical Hospital Information System dataset. The parameters were fed into several time-predicting models, and the best parameter subsets, discovered through exhaustive model search, were applied to a large sample of actual patient wait data. We were able to discover the most efficient wait-time prediction factors and models, such as the line-size models introduced in this work. Moreover, these models proved to be equally accurate and computationally efficient. Finally, the selected models were implemented in our patient waiting areas, displaying predicted wait times on the monitors located at the front desks. The limitations of these models are also discussed. Optimal regression models based on wait-line sizes can provide accurate and efficient predictions for patient wait time. Copyright © 2015 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Temperament of juvenile delinquents with history of substance abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hsueh-Ling; Chen, Sue-Huei; Huang, Chien

    2007-01-01

    The etiological factors and interrelations of juvenile delinquents, with psychiatric morbidity and substance abuse have been continuously debated. Cloninger's Tridimensional Theory of Temperament has been reported to predict patterns of substance abuse and comorbidity. In the current study, we aimed to examine the usability of the theory in predicting juvenile delinquency and substance abuse. Sixty consecutive and newly incarcerated male delinquents with history of substance abuse were recruited from a juvenile correctional facility in northwestern Taiwan from January 2002 through December 2003. All subjects were assessed of their temperament, behavioral problems, and psychiatric disorders on an individual base. The juvenile delinquent subjects with childhood history of attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) were significantly younger, consumed less betel nuts, and had more siblings with history of drug abuse. Consistent with the results of Cloninger's studies, novelty seeking positively correlated to the amount of substance abuse, while harm avoidance inversely correlated in juvenile delinquents. Endemic trend of choice of substance abuse needs to be taken into consideration in future research projects.

  3. Semi-analytic models for the CANDELS survey: comparison of predictions for intrinsic galaxy properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Yu; Wechsler, Risa H.; Somerville, Rachel S.; Croton, Darren; Porter, Lauren; Primack, Joel; Moody, Chris; Behroozi, Peter S.; Ferguson, Henry C.; Koo, David C.; Guo, Yicheng; Safarzadeh, Mohammadtaher; White, Catherine E.; Finlator, Kristian; Castellano, Marco; Sommariva, Veronica

    2014-01-01

    We compare the predictions of three independently developed semi-analytic galaxy formation models (SAMs) that are being used to aid in the interpretation of results from the CANDELS survey. These models are each applied to the same set of halo merger trees extracted from the 'Bolshoi' high-resolution cosmological N-body simulation and are carefully tuned to match the local galaxy stellar mass function using the powerful method of Bayesian Inference coupled with Markov Chain Monte Carlo or by hand. The comparisons reveal that in spite of the significantly different parameterizations for star formation and feedback processes, the three models yield qualitatively similar predictions for the assembly histories of galaxy stellar mass and star formation over cosmic time. Comparing SAM predictions with existing estimates of the stellar mass function from z = 0-8, we show that the SAMs generally require strong outflows to suppress star formation in low-mass halos to match the present-day stellar mass function, as is the present common wisdom. However, all of the models considered produce predictions for the star formation rates (SFRs) and metallicities of low-mass galaxies that are inconsistent with existing data. The predictions for metallicity-stellar mass relations and their evolution clearly diverge between the models. We suggest that large differences in the metallicity relations and small differences in the stellar mass assembly histories of model galaxies stem from different assumptions for the outflow mass-loading factor produced by feedback. Importantly, while more accurate observational measurements for stellar mass, SFR and metallicity of galaxies at 1 < z < 5 will discriminate between models, the discrepancies between the constrained models and existing data of these observables have already revealed challenging problems in understanding star formation and its feedback in galaxy formation. The three sets of models are being used to construct catalogs

  4. Semi-analytic models for the CANDELS survey: comparison of predictions for intrinsic galaxy properties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Yu; Wechsler, Risa H. [Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Physics Department, and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Somerville, Rachel S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Rutgers University, 136 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, NJ 08854 (United States); Croton, Darren [Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology, P.O. Box 218, Hawthorn, VIC 3122 (Australia); Porter, Lauren; Primack, Joel; Moody, Chris [Department of Physics, University of California at Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Behroozi, Peter S.; Ferguson, Henry C. [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Koo, David C.; Guo, Yicheng [UCO/Lick Observatory, Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Safarzadeh, Mohammadtaher; White, Catherine E. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, The Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Finlator, Kristian [Dark Cosmology Centre, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, DK-2100 Copenhagen (Denmark); Castellano, Marco; Sommariva, Veronica, E-mail: luyu@stanford.edu, E-mail: rwechsler@stanford.edu [INAF-Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma, via Frascati 33, I-00040 Monteporzio (Italy)

    2014-11-10

    We compare the predictions of three independently developed semi-analytic galaxy formation models (SAMs) that are being used to aid in the interpretation of results from the CANDELS survey. These models are each applied to the same set of halo merger trees extracted from the 'Bolshoi' high-resolution cosmological N-body simulation and are carefully tuned to match the local galaxy stellar mass function using the powerful method of Bayesian Inference coupled with Markov Chain Monte Carlo or by hand. The comparisons reveal that in spite of the significantly different parameterizations for star formation and feedback processes, the three models yield qualitatively similar predictions for the assembly histories of galaxy stellar mass and star formation over cosmic time. Comparing SAM predictions with existing estimates of the stellar mass function from z = 0-8, we show that the SAMs generally require strong outflows to suppress star formation in low-mass halos to match the present-day stellar mass function, as is the present common wisdom. However, all of the models considered produce predictions for the star formation rates (SFRs) and metallicities of low-mass galaxies that are inconsistent with existing data. The predictions for metallicity-stellar mass relations and their evolution clearly diverge between the models. We suggest that large differences in the metallicity relations and small differences in the stellar mass assembly histories of model galaxies stem from different assumptions for the outflow mass-loading factor produced by feedback. Importantly, while more accurate observational measurements for stellar mass, SFR and metallicity of galaxies at 1 < z < 5 will discriminate between models, the discrepancies between the constrained models and existing data of these observables have already revealed challenging problems in understanding star formation and its feedback in galaxy formation. The three sets of models are being used to construct catalogs

  5. PVT characterization and viscosity modeling and prediction of crude oils

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cisneros, Eduardo Salvador P.; Dalberg, Anders; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    2004-01-01

    In previous works, the general, one-parameter friction theory (f-theory), models have been applied to the accurate viscosity modeling of reservoir fluids. As a base, the f-theory approach requires a compositional characterization procedure for the application of an equation of state (EOS), in most...... pressure, is also presented. The combination of the mass characterization scheme presented in this work and the f-theory, can also deliver accurate viscosity modeling results. Additionally, depending on how extensive the compositional characterization is, the approach,presented in this work may also...... deliver accurate viscosity predictions. The modeling approach presented in this work can deliver accurate viscosity and density modeling and prediction results over wide ranges of reservoir conditions, including the compositional changes induced by recovery processes such as gas injection....

  6. Characterization of a signal recording system for accurate velocity estimation using a VISAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rav, Amit; Joshi, K. D.; Singh, Kulbhushan; Kaushik, T. C.

    2018-02-01

    The linearity of a signal recording system (SRS) in time as well as in amplitude are important for the accurate estimation of the free surface velocity history of a moving target during shock loading and unloading when measured using optical interferometers such as a velocity interferometer system for any reflector (VISAR). Signal recording being the first step in a long sequence of signal processes, the incorporation of errors due to nonlinearity, and low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) affects the overall accuracy and precision of the estimation of velocity history. In shock experiments the small duration (a few µs) of loading/unloading, the reflectivity of moving target surface, and the properties of optical components, control the amount of input of light to the SRS of a VISAR and this in turn affects the linearity and SNR of the overall measurement. These factors make it essential to develop in situ procedures for (i) minimizing the effect of signal induced noise and (ii) determine the linear region of operation for the SRS. Here we report on a procedure for the optimization of SRS parameters such as photodetector gain, optical power, aperture etc, so as to achieve a linear region of operation with a high SNR. The linear region of operation so determined has been utilized successfully to estimate the temporal history of the free surface velocity of the moving target in shock experiments.

  7. Life History Strategy and Young Adult Substance Use

    OpenAIRE

    George B. Richardson; Ching-Chen Chen; Chia-Liang Dai; Patrick H. Hardesty; Christopher M. Swoboda

    2014-01-01

    This study tested whether life history strategy (LHS) and its intergenerational transmission could explain young adult use of common psychoactive substances. We tested a sequential structural equation model using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. During young adulthood, fast LHS explained 61% of the variance in overall liability for substance use. Faster parent LHS predicted poorer health and lesser alcohol use, greater neuroticism and cigarette smoking, but did not predict...

  8. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  9. Accurate location estimation of moving object In Wireless Sensor network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinay Bhaskar Semwal

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the central issues in wirless sensor networks is track the location, of moving object which have overhead of saving data, an accurate estimation of the target location of object with energy constraint .We do not have any mechanism which control and maintain data .The wireless communication bandwidth is also very limited. Some field which is using this technique are flood and typhoon detection, forest fire detection, temperature and humidity and ones we have these information use these information back to a central air conditioning and ventilation.In this research paper, we propose protocol based on the prediction and adaptive based algorithm which is using less sensor node reduced by an accurate estimation of the target location. We had shown that our tracking method performs well in terms of energy saving regardless of mobility pattern of the mobile target. We extends the life time of network with less sensor node. Once a new object is detected, a mobile agent will be initiated to track the roaming path of the object.

  10. Assessing Prediction Performance of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Response in Bladder Cancer

    OpenAIRE

    Cremer, Chris

    2016-01-01

    Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is a treatment routinely prescribed to patients diagnosed with muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Unfortunately, not all patients are responsive to this treatment and would greatly benefit from an accurate prediction of their expected response to chemotherapy. In this project, I attempt to develop a model that will predict response using tumour microarray data. I show that using my dataset, every method is insufficient at accurately classifying responders and non-respond...

  11. Life stress and family history for depression: the moderating role of past depressive episodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroe, Scott M; Slavich, George M; Gotlib, Ian H

    2014-02-01

    Three of the most consistently reported and powerful predictors of depression are a recent major life event, a positive family history for depression, and a personal history of past depressive episodes. Little research, however, has evaluated the inter-relations among these predictors in depressed samples. Such information is descriptively valuable and potentially etiologically informative. In the present article we summarize the existing literature and test four predictions in a sample of 62 clinically depressed individuals: (1) participants who experienced a major life event prior to onset would be less likely than participants who did not experience a major life event to have a positive family history for depression; (2) participants with a recent major life event would have fewer lifetime episodes of depression than would participants without; (3) participants with a positive family history for depression would have more lifetime episodes of depression than would participants with a negative family history for depression; and (4) we would obtain a 3-way interaction in which participants with a positive family history and without a major life event would have the most lifetime episodes, whereas participants with a negative family history and a major life event would have the fewest lifetime episodes. The first three predictions were confirmed, and the fourth prediction partially confirmed. These novel findings begin to elucidate the complex relations among these three prominent risk factors for depression, and point to avenues of research that may help illuminate the origins of depressive episodes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk Factors and Predictive Model Development of Thirty-Day Post-Operative Surgical Site Infection in the Veterans Administration Surgical Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xinli; Nylander, William; Smith, Tracy; Han, Soonhee; Gunnar, William

    2018-04-01

    Surgical site infection (SSI) complicates approximately 2% of surgeries in the Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals. Surgical site infections are responsible for increased morbidity, length of hospital stay, cost, and mortality. Surgical site infection can be minimized by modifying risk factors. In this study, we identified risk factors and developed accurate predictive surgical specialty-specific SSI risk prediction models for the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) surgery population. In a retrospective observation study, surgical patients who underwent surgery from October 2013 to September 2016 from 136 VA hospitals were included. The Veteran Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) database was used for the pre-operative demographic and clinical characteristics, intra-operative characteristics, and 30-day post-operative outcomes. The study population represents 11 surgical specialties: neurosurgery, urology, podiatry, otolaryngology, general, orthopedic, plastic, thoracic, vascular, cardiac coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), and cardiac valve/other surgery. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed for the 30-day post-operative SSIs. Among 354,528 surgical procedures, 6,538 (1.8%) had SSIs within 30 days. Surgical site infection rates varied among surgical specialty (0.7%-3.0%). Surgical site infection rates were higher in emergency procedures, procedures with long operative duration, greater complexity, and higher relative value units. Other factors associated with increased SSI risk were high level of American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification (level 4 and 5), dyspnea, open wound/infection, wound classification, ascites, bleeding disorder, chemotherapy, smoking, history of severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), radiotherapy, steroid use for chronic conditions, and weight loss. Each surgical specialty had a distinct combination of risk factors. Accurate SSI risk-predictive surgery specialty

  13. Star-Formation Histories, Abundances, and Kinematics of Dwarf Galaxies in the Local Group

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tolstoy, Eline; Hill, Vanessa; Tosi, Monica; Blandford, R; Kormendy, J; VanDishoeck, E

    2009-01-01

    Within the Local Universe galaxies can be studied in great detail star by star, and here we review the results of quantitative studies in nearby dwarf galaxies. The color-magnitude diagram synthesis method is well established as the most accurate way to determine star-formation histories of galaxies

  14. Uncovering History for Future History Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Fritz

    2010-01-01

    The art of history teaching is at a crossroads. Recent scholarship focuses on the need to change the teaching of history so students can better learn history, and insists that history teachers must move beyond traditional structures and methods of teaching in order to improve their students' abilities to think with history. This article presents…

  15. History Matching and Parameter Estimation of Surface Deformation Data for a CO2 Sequestration Field Project Using Ensemble-Based Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavakoli, Reza; Srinivasan, Sanjay; Wheeler, Mary

    2015-04-01

    The application of ensemble-based algorithms for history matching reservoir models has been steadily increasing over the past decade. However, the majority of implementations in the reservoir engineering have dealt only with production history matching. During geologic sequestration, the injection of large quantities of CO2 into the subsurface may alter the stress/strain field which in turn can lead to surface uplift or subsidence. Therefore, it is essential to couple multiphase flow and geomechanical response in order to predict and quantify the uncertainty of CO2 plume movement for long-term, large-scale CO2 sequestration projects. In this work, we simulate and estimate the properties of a reservoir that is being used to store CO2 as part of the In Salah Capture and Storage project in Algeria. The CO2 is separated from produced natural gas and is re-injected into downdip aquifer portion of the field from three long horizontal wells. The field observation data includes ground surface deformations (uplift) measured using satellite-based radar (InSAR), injection well locations and CO2 injection rate histories provided by the operators. We implement variations of ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble smoother algorithms for assimilating both injection rate data as well as geomechanical observations (surface uplift) into reservoir model. The preliminary estimation results of horizontal permeability and material properties such as Young Modulus and Poisson Ratio are consistent with available measurements and previous studies in this field. Moreover, the existence of high-permeability channels (fractures) within the reservoir; especially in the regions around the injection wells are confirmed. This estimation results can be used to accurately and efficiently predict and quantify the uncertainty in the movement of CO2 plume.

  16. Does resident ranking during recruitment accurately predict subsequent performance as a surgical resident?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryer, Jonathan P; Corcoran, Noreen; George, Brian; Wang, Ed; Darosa, Debra

    2012-01-01

    While the primary goal of ranking applicants for surgical residency training positions is to identify the candidates who will subsequently perform best as surgical residents, the effectiveness of the ranking process has not been adequately studied. We evaluated our general surgery resident recruitment process between 2001 and 2011 inclusive, to determine if our recruitment ranking parameters effectively predicted subsequent resident performance. We identified 3 candidate ranking parameters (United States Medical Licensing Examination [USMLE] Step 1 score, unadjusted ranking score [URS], and final adjusted ranking [FAR]), and 4 resident performance parameters (American Board of Surgery In-Training Examination [ABSITE] score, PGY1 resident evaluation grade [REG], overall REG, and independent faculty rating ranking [IFRR]), and assessed whether the former were predictive of the latter. Analyses utilized Spearman correlation coefficient. We found that the URS, which is based on objective and criterion based parameters, was a better predictor of subsequent performance than the FAR, which is a modification of the URS based on subsequent determinations of the resident selection committee. USMLE score was a reliable predictor of ABSITE scores only. However, when we compared our worst residence performances with the performances of the other residents in this evaluation, the data did not produce convincing evidence that poor resident performances could be reliably predicted by any of the recruitment ranking parameters. Finally, stratifying candidates based on their rank range did not effectively define a ranking cut-off beyond which resident performance would drop off. Based on these findings, we recommend surgery programs may be better served by utilizing a more structured resident ranking process and that subsequent adjustments to the rank list generated by this process should be undertaken with caution. Copyright © 2012 Association of Program Directors in Surgery

  17. Deep Learning Accurately Predicts Estrogen Receptor Status in Breast Cancer Metabolomics Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alakwaa, Fadhl M; Chaudhary, Kumardeep; Garmire, Lana X

    2018-01-05

    Metabolomics holds the promise as a new technology to diagnose highly heterogeneous diseases. Conventionally, metabolomics data analysis for diagnosis is done using various statistical and machine learning based classification methods. However, it remains unknown if deep neural network, a class of increasingly popular machine learning methods, is suitable to classify metabolomics data. Here we use a cohort of 271 breast cancer tissues, 204 positive estrogen receptor (ER+), and 67 negative estrogen receptor (ER-) to test the accuracies of feed-forward networks, a deep learning (DL) framework, as well as six widely used machine learning models, namely random forest (RF), support vector machines (SVM), recursive partitioning and regression trees (RPART), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), prediction analysis for microarrays (PAM), and generalized boosted models (GBM). DL framework has the highest area under the curve (AUC) of 0.93 in classifying ER+/ER- patients, compared to the other six machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, the biological interpretation of the first hidden layer reveals eight commonly enriched significant metabolomics pathways (adjusted P-value learning methods. Among them, protein digestion and absorption and ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters pathways are also confirmed in integrated analysis between metabolomics and gene expression data in these samples. In summary, deep learning method shows advantages for metabolomics based breast cancer ER status classification, with both the highest prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.93) and better revelation of disease biology. We encourage the adoption of feed-forward networks based deep learning method in the metabolomics research community for classification.

  18. Thermal history regulates methylbutenol basal emission rate in Pinus ponderosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Dennis W; Goldstein, Allen H; Lerdau, Manuel T

    2006-07-01

    Methylbutenol (MBO) is a 5-carbon alcohol that is emitted by many pines in western North America, which may have important impacts on the tropospheric chemistry of this region. In this study, we document seasonal changes in basal MBO emission rates and test several models predicting these changes based on thermal history. These models represent extensions of the ISO G93 model that add a correction factor C(basal), allowing MBO basal emission rates to change as a function of thermal history. These models also allow the calculation of a new emission parameter E(standard30), which represents the inherent capacity of a plant to produce MBO, independent of current or past environmental conditions. Most single-component models exhibited large departures in early and late season, and predicted day-to-day changes in basal emission rate with temporal offsets of up to 3 d relative to measured basal emission rates. Adding a second variable describing thermal history at a longer time scale improved early and late season model performance while retaining the day-to-day performance of the parent single-component model. Out of the models tested, the T(amb),T(max7) model exhibited the best combination of day-to-day and seasonal predictions of basal MBO emission rates.

  19. Applying species-tree analyses to deep phylogenetic histories: challenges and potential suggested from a survey of empirical phylogenetic studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanier, Hayley C; Knowles, L Lacey

    2015-02-01

    Coalescent-based methods for species-tree estimation are becoming a dominant approach for reconstructing species histories from multi-locus data, with most of the studies examining these methodologies focused on recently diverged species. However, deeper phylogenies, such as the datasets that comprise many Tree of Life (ToL) studies, also exhibit gene-tree discordance. This discord may also arise from the stochastic sorting of gene lineages during the speciation process (i.e., reflecting the random coalescence of gene lineages in ancestral populations). It remains unknown whether guidelines regarding methodologies and numbers of loci established by simulation studies at shallow tree depths translate into accurate species relationships for deeper phylogenetic histories. We address this knowledge gap and specifically identify the challenges and limitations of species-tree methods that account for coalescent variance for deeper phylogenies. Using simulated data with characteristics informed by empirical studies, we evaluate both the accuracy of estimated species trees and the characteristics associated with recalcitrant nodes, with a specific focus on whether coalescent variance is generally responsible for the lack of resolution. By determining the proportion of coalescent genealogies that support a particular node, we demonstrate that (1) species-tree methods account for coalescent variance at deep nodes and (2) mutational variance - not gene-tree discord arising from the coalescent - posed the primary challenge for accurate reconstruction across the tree. For example, many nodes were accurately resolved despite predicted discord from the random coalescence of gene lineages and nodes with poor support were distributed across a range of depths (i.e., they were not restricted to a particular recent divergences). Given their broad taxonomic scope and large sampling of taxa, deep level phylogenies pose several potential methodological complications including

  20. Body composition and menstrual status in adults with a history of anorexia nervosa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winkler, Laura Al-Dakhiel; Frølich, Jacob Stampe; Schulpen, Maya

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To study the association between body composition measures and menstrual status in a large sample of adult patients with a history of anorexia nervosa and to calculate the predicted probability of resumption of menstrual function. Furthermore, to establish whether fat percentage...... is superior to body mass index in predicting the resumption of menses. METHOD: One hundred and thirteen adult women with a history of anorexia nervosa underwent a dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan and completed questionnaires regarding medication prescription and menstrual function. RESULTS: Fifty...

  1. History of Cardiology in India

    OpenAIRE

    Das, Mrinal Kanti; Kumar, Soumitra; Deb, Pradip Kumar; Mishra, Sundeep

    2015-01-01

    History as a science revolves around memories, travellers' tales, fables and chroniclers' stories, gossip and trans-telephonic conversations. Medicine itself as per the puritan's definition is a non-exact science because of the probability-predictability-sensitivity-specificity factors. Howsoever, the chronicles of Cardiology in India is quite interesting and intriguing. Heart and circulation was known to humankind from pre-Vedic era. Various therapeutics measures including the role of Yoga a...

  2. Using electronic health records and Internet search information for accurate influenza forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Brownstein, John S; Gray, Josh; Richardson, Stewart; Kou, S C

    2017-05-08

    Accurate influenza activity forecasting helps public health officials prepare and allocate resources for unusual influenza activity. Traditional flu surveillance systems, such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) influenza-like illnesses reports, lag behind real-time by one to 2 weeks, whereas information contained in cloud-based electronic health records (EHR) and in Internet users' search activity is typically available in near real-time. We present a method that combines the information from these two data sources with historical flu activity to produce national flu forecasts for the United States up to 4 weeks ahead of the publication of CDC's flu reports. We extend a method originally designed to track flu using Google searches, named ARGO, to combine information from EHR and Internet searches with historical flu activities. Our regularized multivariate regression model dynamically selects the most appropriate variables for flu prediction every week. The model is assessed for the flu seasons within the time period 2013-2016 using multiple metrics including root mean squared error (RMSE). Our method reduces the RMSE of the publicly available alternative (Healthmap flutrends) method by 33, 20, 17 and 21%, for the four time horizons: real-time, one, two, and 3 weeks ahead, respectively. Such accuracy improvements are statistically significant at the 5% level. Our real-time estimates correctly identified the peak timing and magnitude of the studied flu seasons. Our method significantly reduces the prediction error when compared to historical publicly available Internet-based prediction systems, demonstrating that: (1) the method to combine data sources is as important as data quality; (2) effectively extracting information from a cloud-based EHR and Internet search activity leads to accurate forecast of flu.

  3. Total reference air kerma can accurately predict isodose surface volumes in cervix cancer brachytherapy. A multicenter study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nkiwane, Karen S; Andersen, Else; Champoudry, Jerome

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: To demonstrate that V60 Gy, V75 Gy, and V85 Gy isodose surface volumes can be accurately estimated from total reference air kerma (TRAK) in cervix cancer MRI-guided brachytherapy (BT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: 60 Gy, 75 Gy, and 85 Gy isodose surface volumes levels were obtained from treatm...

  4. Statistical analysis of accurate prediction of local atmospheric optical attenuation with a new model according to weather together with beam wandering compensation system: a season-wise experimental investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arockia Bazil Raj, A.; Padmavathi, S.

    2016-07-01

    Atmospheric parameters strongly affect the performance of Free Space Optical Communication (FSOC) system when the optical wave is propagating through the inhomogeneous turbulent medium. Developing a model to get an accurate prediction of optical attenuation according to meteorological parameters becomes significant to understand the behaviour of FSOC channel during different seasons. A dedicated free space optical link experimental set-up is developed for the range of 0.5 km at an altitude of 15.25 m. The diurnal profile of received power and corresponding meteorological parameters are continuously measured using the developed optoelectronic assembly and weather station, respectively, and stored in a data logging computer. Measured meteorological parameters (as input factors) and optical attenuation (as response factor) of size [177147 × 4] are used for linear regression analysis and to design the mathematical model that is more suitable to predict the atmospheric optical attenuation at our test field. A model that exhibits the R2 value of 98.76% and average percentage deviation of 1.59% is considered for practical implementation. The prediction accuracy of the proposed model is investigated along with the comparative results obtained from some of the existing models in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) during different local seasons in one-year period. The average RMSE value of 0.043-dB/km is obtained in the longer range dynamic of meteorological parameters variations.

  5. Time and activity sequence prediction of business process instances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Polato, Mirko; Sperduti, Alessandro; Burattin, Andrea

    2018-01-01

    The ability to know in advance the trend of running process instances, with respect to different features, such as the expected completion time, would allow business managers to timely counteract to undesired situations, in order to prevent losses. Therefore, the ability to accurately predict...... future features of running business process instances would be a very helpful aid when managing processes, especially under service level agreement constraints. However, making such accurate forecasts is not easy: many factors may influence the predicted features. Many approaches have been proposed...

  6. Using Landsat-derived disturbance history (1972-2010) to predict current forest structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirk Pflugmacher; Warren B. Cohen; Robert E. Kennedy

    2012-01-01

    Lidar is currently the most accurate method for remote estimation of forest structure, but it has limited spatial and temporal coverage. Conversely, Landsat data are more widely available, but exhibit a weaker relationship with structure under medium to high leaf area conditions. One potentially valuable means of enhancing the relationship between Landsat reflectance...

  7. Ab Initio Predictions of Structures and Densities of Energetic Solids

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rice, Betsy M; Sorescu, Dan C

    2004-01-01

    We have applied a powerful simulation methodology known as ab initio crystal prediction to assess the ability of a generalized model of CHNO intermolecular interactions to predict accurately crystal...

  8. Using life-histories to predict and interpret variability in yolk hormones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, O P; Gilchrist, H G; Bêty, J; Wynne-Edwards, K E; Berzins, L; Williams, T D

    2009-09-01

    Variation in yolk hormones is assumed to provide the plasticity necessary for mothers to individually optimize reproductive decisions via changes in offspring phenotype, the benefit being to maximise fitness. However, rather than routinely expecting adaptive variation within all species, the pattern and magnitude of yolk hormone deposition should theoretically relate to variation in life-histories. Here we present data on intra-clutch variation in yolk corticosterone in three species along a developmental continuum (European starling (Sturnus vulgaris): fully altricial; black guillemot (Cepphus grylle): semi-precocial; common eider (Somateria mollissima): fully precocial) to examine how and why variation in life-histories might relate to the evolution of variation in yolk steroids. Starlings and guillemots showed a significant increase in yolk corticosterone across the laying sequence; however, we found no pattern within eider clutches. Moreover, starlings showed the largest difference (94.6%) in yolk corticosterone between first- and last-laid eggs, whereas guillemots showed a moderate difference (58.9%). Despite these general species-specific patterns, individuals showed marked variation in the intra-clutch patterns of yolk corticosterone within each species indicating potential differences in intra-clutch flexibility among females. It is well documented that exposure to elevated yolk glucocorticoids reduces offspring quality at birth/hatching in many taxa and it has therefore been proposed that elevated yolk levels may modulate offspring competition and/or facilitate brood reduction under harsh conditions in birds. Our data suggests that intra-clutch variation in yolk corticosterone has the potential to act as an adaptive maternal effect in species where modulation of competition between nest-bound offspring would benefit mothers (starlings and guillemots). However, in precocial species where mothers would not benefit from a modulation of offspring quality

  9. Sexual victimization history predicts academic performance in college women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Majel R; Frazier, Patricia A; Greer, Christiaan; Paulsen, Jacob A; Howard, Kelli; Meredith, Liza N; Anders, Samantha L; Shallcross, Sandra L

    2016-11-01

    College women frequently report having experienced sexual victimization (SV) in their lifetime, including child sexual abuse and adolescent/adult sexual assault. Although the harmful mental health sequelae of SV have been extensively studied, recent research suggests that SV is also a risk factor for poorer college academic performance. The current studies examined whether exposure to SV uniquely predicted poorer college academic performance, even beyond contributions from three well-established predictors of academic performance: high school rank, composite standardized test scores (i.e., American College Testing [ACT]), and conscientiousness. Study 1 analyzed longitudinal data from a sample of female college students (N = 192) who were assessed at the beginning and end of one semester. SV predicted poorer cumulative end-of-semester grade point average (GPA) while controlling for well-established predictors of academic performance. Study 2 replicated these findings in a second longitudinal study of female college students (N = 390) and extended the analyses to include follow-up data on the freshmen and sophomore students (n = 206) 4 years later. SV predicted students' GPA in their final term at the university above the contributions of well-established academic predictors, and it was the only factor related to leaving college. These findings highlight the importance of expanding the scope of outcomes of SV to include academic performance, and they underscore the need to assess SV and other adverse experiences on college campuses to target students who may be at risk of poor performance or leaving college. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. On the Predictability of Hub Height Winds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Draxl, Caroline

    Wind energy is a major source of power in over 70 countries across the world, and the worldwide share of wind energy in electricity consumption is growing. The introduction of signicant amounts of wind energy into power systems makes accurate wind forecasting a crucial element of modern electrical...... grids. These systems require forecasts with temporal scales of tens of minutes to a few days in advance at wind farm locations. Traditionally these forecasts predict the wind at turbine hub heights; this information is then converted by transmission system operators and energy companies into predictions...... of power output at wind farms. Since the power available in the wind is proportional to the wind speed cubed, even small wind forecast errors result in large power prediction errors. Accurate wind forecasts are worth billions of dollars annually; forecast improvements will result in reduced costs...

  11. Improving the description of sunglint for accurate prediction of remotely sensed radiances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ottaviani, Matteo [Light and Life Laboratory, Department of Physics and Engineering Physics, Stevens Institute of Technology, Castle Point on Hudson, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States)], E-mail: mottavia@stevens.edu; Spurr, Robert [RT Solutions Inc., 9 Channing Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Stamnes, Knut; Li Wei [Light and Life Laboratory, Department of Physics and Engineering Physics, Stevens Institute of Technology, Castle Point on Hudson, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States); Su Wenying [Science Systems and Applications Inc., 1 Enterprise Parkway, Hampton, VA 23666 (United States); Wiscombe, Warren [NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States)

    2008-09-15

    The bidirectional reflection distribution function (BRDF) of the ocean is a critical boundary condition for radiative transfer calculations in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. Existing models express the extent of the glint-contaminated region and its contribution to the radiance essentially as a function of the wind speed. An accurate treatment of the glint contribution and its propagation in the atmosphere would improve current correction schemes and hence rescue a significant portion of data presently discarded as 'glint contaminated'. In current satellite imagery, a correction to the sensor-measured radiances is limited to the region at the edge of the glint, where the contribution is below a certain threshold. This correction assumes the sunglint radiance to be directly transmitted through the atmosphere. To quantify the error introduced by this approximation we employ a radiative transfer code that allows for a user-specified BRDF at the atmosphere-ocean interface and rigorously accounts for multiple scattering. We show that the errors incurred by ignoring multiple scattering are very significant and typically lie in the range 10-90%. Multiple reflections and shadowing at the surface can also be accounted for, and we illustrate the importance of such processes at grazing geometries.

  12. iBEST: a program for burnup history estimation of spent fuels based on ORIGEN-S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Do Yeon; Hong, Ser Gi; Ahn, Gil Hoon

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we describe a computer program, iBEST (inverse Burnup ESTimator), that we developed to accurately estimate the burnup histories of spent nuclear fuels based on sample measurement data. The burnup history parameters include initial uranium enrichment, burnup, cooling time after discharge from reactor, and reactor type. The program uses algebraic equations derived using the simplified burnup chains of major actinides for initial estimations of burnup and uranium enrichment, and it uses the ORIGEN-S code to correct its initial estimations for improved accuracy. In addition, we newly developed a stable bisection method coupled with ORIGEN-S to correct burnup and enrichment values and implemented it in iBEST in order to fully take advantage of the new capabilities of ORIGEN-S for improving accuracy. The iBEST program was tested using several problems for verification and well-known realistic problems with measurement data from spent fuel samples from the Mihama-3 reactor for validation. The test results show that iBEST accurately estimates the burnup history parameters for the test problems and gives an acceptable level of accuracy for the realistic Mihama-3 problems

  13. Toward an accurate description of solid-state properties of superheavy elements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schwerdtfeger Peter

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last two decades cold and hot fusion experiments lead to the production of new elements for the Periodic Table up to nuclear charge 118. Recent developments in relativistic quantum theory have made it possible to obtain accurate electronic properties for the trans-actinide elements with the aim to predict their potential chemical and physical behaviour. Here we report on first results of solid-state calculations for Og (element 118 to support future atom-at-a-time gas-phase adsorption experiments on surfaces such as gold or quartz.

  14. The History of Otolaryngology In New Orleans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, George D

    2016-01-01

    George D. Lyons, MD, now becoming "an elder statesman," he decided summarize the early history of otolaryngology as it developed in New Orleans. Francis LeJeune, MD, Sr., a much admired and loved otolaryngologist, has afforded a great insight through his memoirs in the early development of our specialty in his report of Otolaryngology in the South. Dr. LeJune, Sr. began his brief paper just before his death. Excerpts from this paper have been used by the American Laryngological Association. There will be no bibliography. Most of this information was obtained from Dr. LeJeune's memoirs, history departments of the Academy, Touro Infirmary, Eye, Ear, Nose, and Throat (EENT) archives and interviews with descendants of our early leaders. A special thanks to them for their time, research, and generosity of information. There has been some debate regarding the precision of some of the dates, but they are as chronologically accurate as possible.

  15. The rate-size trade-off structures intraspecific variation in Daphnia ambigua life history parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLong, John P; Hanley, Torrance C

    2013-01-01

    The identification of trade-offs is necessary for understanding the evolution and maintenance of diversity. Here we employ the supply-demand (SD) body size optimization model to predict a trade-off between asymptotic body size and growth rate. We use the SD model to quantitatively predict the slope of the relationship between asymptotic body size and growth rate under high and low food regimes and then test the predictions against observations for Daphnia ambigua. Close quantitative agreement between observed and predicted slopes at both food levels lends support to the model and confirms that a 'rate-size' trade-off structures life history variation in this population. In contrast to classic life history expectations, growth and reproduction were positively correlated after controlling for the rate-size trade-off. We included 12 Daphnia clones in our study, but clone identity explained only some of the variation in life history traits. We also tested the hypothesis that growth rate would be positively related to intergenic spacer length (i.e. the growth rate hypothesis) across clones, but we found that clones with intermediate intergenic spacer lengths had larger asymptotic sizes and slower growth rates. Our results strongly support a resource-based optimization of body size following the SD model. Furthermore, because some resource allocation decisions necessarily precede others, understanding interdependent life history traits may require a more nested approach.

  16. The rate-size trade-off structures intraspecific variation in Daphnia ambigua life history parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John P DeLong

    Full Text Available The identification of trade-offs is necessary for understanding the evolution and maintenance of diversity. Here we employ the supply-demand (SD body size optimization model to predict a trade-off between asymptotic body size and growth rate. We use the SD model to quantitatively predict the slope of the relationship between asymptotic body size and growth rate under high and low food regimes and then test the predictions against observations for Daphnia ambigua. Close quantitative agreement between observed and predicted slopes at both food levels lends support to the model and confirms that a 'rate-size' trade-off structures life history variation in this population. In contrast to classic life history expectations, growth and reproduction were positively correlated after controlling for the rate-size trade-off. We included 12 Daphnia clones in our study, but clone identity explained only some of the variation in life history traits. We also tested the hypothesis that growth rate would be positively related to intergenic spacer length (i.e. the growth rate hypothesis across clones, but we found that clones with intermediate intergenic spacer lengths had larger asymptotic sizes and slower growth rates. Our results strongly support a resource-based optimization of body size following the SD model. Furthermore, because some resource allocation decisions necessarily precede others, understanding interdependent life history traits may require a more nested approach.

  17. Simple exercise test for the prediction of relative heat tolerance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenney, W.L.; Lewis, D.A.; Anderson, R.K.; Kamon, E.

    1986-01-01

    A medical screening exercise test is presented which accurately predicts relative heat tolerance during work in very hot environments. The test consisted of 15-20 min of exercise at a standard absolute intensity of about 600 kcal/hr (140W) with the subject wearing a vapor-barrier suit. Five minutes after the subject exercised, recovery heart rate was measured. When this heart rate is used, a physiological limit (+/- approximately 5 min) can be predicted with 95% confidence for the most intense work-heat conditions found in nuclear power stations. In addition, site health and safety personnel can establish qualification criteria for work on hot jobs, based on the test results. The test as developed can be performed in an office environment with the use of a minimum of equipment by personnel with minimal expertise and training. Total maximal test duration is about 20-25 min per person and only heart rate need be monitored (simple pulse palpation will suffice). Test modality is adaptable to any ergometer, the most readily available and least expensive of which is bench-stepping. It is recommended that this test be available for use for those persons who, based upon routine medical examination or past history, are suspected of being relatively heat intolerant

  18. Parents' attachment histories and children's externalizing and internalizing behaviors: exploring family systems models of linkage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan, P A; Cowan, C P; Cohn, D A; Pearson, J L

    1996-02-01

    Twenty-seven mothers and 27 fathers were given the Adult Attachment Interview (M. Main & R. Goldwyn, in press) when their children were 3.5 years old. Continuous ratings of narrative coherence, probable experience quality (parents perceived as loving), and state of mind (current anger at parents) were entered as latent variables in partial least squares structural equation models that included observational measures of marital quality and parenting style. Models that include fathers' attachment histories predicted more variance in kindergarten teachers' descriptions of children's externalizing behavior, whereas models that include mothers' attachment histories predicted more variance in children's internalizing behavior. Marital data added predictive power to the equations. Discussion is focused on the importance of integrating attachment and family systems approaches, and of parents' gender and marital quality, in understanding specific links between parents' attachment histories and their young children's externalizing and internalizing behaviors.

  19. Asian American Women's Victimization History and In-The-Moment Responses to Partner Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hong V; Schacht, Rebecca L; Yang, Joyce P; George, William H; Pantalone, David W

    2018-04-01

    Between 20% and 50% of Asian American women report experiencing partner violence (PV). Furthermore, nearly half of PV victims experience their first assault between the age of 18 and 24 years, suggesting that Asian American college women may be particularly at risk of PV. Experiencing childhood abuse (CA) may impair women's capacity to perceive risk during a potential PV situation, increasing their risk for revictimization. The purpose of the current study was to examine differences among Asian American college women's ( N = 324) in-the-moment behavioral intention, risk perception, and likelihood to stay in an abusive relationship during a progressively threatening PV scenario, based on victimization history and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. We tested three path models, each assessing the relations among CA, PV, PTSD, current and future risk perception, likelihood of staying in the relationship, and one of three behavioral intentions (soothe the perpetrator, escape, and escalation/resistance). As hypothesized, CA history positively predicted PV history and PTSD symptoms. Furthermore, CA and PV predicted more in-the-moment soothe behavioral intentions and fewer escape behavioral intentions which, in turn, predicted diminished current and future risk perception. CA and PV also predicted stronger escalation/resistance behavioral intentions, such that escalation/resistance intentions were associated with higher risk perception during a more violent part of the scenario but lower risk perception during a less violent part of the scenario. Finally, higher risk perception predicted lower likelihood of staying in the relationship. Findings indicate that victimization history is associated with increased risky behavioral intentions among Asian American college women and suggest that targeted interventions to improve assault-exposed Asian American women's awareness of risk cues may be warranted.

  20. Life history strategies of fish species and biodiversity in eastern USA streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meador, Michael R.; Brown, Larry M.

    2015-01-01

    Predictive models have been used to determine fish species that occur less frequently than expected (decreasers) and those that occur more frequently than expected (increasers) in streams in the eastern U.S. Coupling life history traits with 51 decreaser and 38 increaser fish species provided the opportunity to examine potential mechanisms associated with predicted changes in fish species distributions in eastern streams. We assigned six life history traits – fecundity, longevity, maturation age, maximum total length, parental care, and spawning season duration – to each fish species. Decreaser species were significantly smaller in size and shorter-lived with reduced fecundity and shorter spawning seasons compared to increaser species. Cluster analysis of traits revealed correspondence with a life history model defining equilibrium (low fecundity, high parental care), opportunistic (early maturation, low parental care), and periodic (late maturation, high fecundity, low parental care) end-point strategies. Nearly 50 % of decreaser species were associated with an intermediate opportunistic-periodic strategy, suggesting that abiotic factors such as habitat specialization and streamflow alteration may serve as important influences on life history traits and strategies of decreaser species. In contrast, the percent of increaser species among life history strategy groups ranged from 21 to 32 %, suggesting that life history strategies of increaser species were more diverse than those of decreaser species. This study highlights the utility of linking life history theory to biodiversity to better understand mechanisms that contribute to fish species distributions in the eastern U.S.

  1. ABC/2 Method Does not Accurately Predict Cerebral Arteriovenous Malformation Volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roark, Christopher; Vadlamudi, Venu; Chaudhary, Neeraj; Gemmete, Joseph J; Seinfeld, Joshua; Thompson, B Gregory; Pandey, Aditya S

    2018-02-01

    Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) is a treatment option for cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) to prevent intracranial hemorrhage. The decision to proceed with SRS is usually based on calculated nidal volume. Physicians commonly use the ABC/2 formula, based on digital subtraction angiography (DSA), when counseling patients for SRS. To determine whether AVM volume calculated using the ABC/2 method on DSA is accurate when compared to the exact volume calculated from thin-cut axial sections used for SRS planning. Retrospective search of neurovascular database to identify AVMs treated with SRS from 1995 to 2015. Maximum nidal diameters in orthogonal planes on DSA images were recorded to determine volume using ABC/2 formula. Nidal target volume was extracted from operative reports of SRS. Volumes were then compared using descriptive statistics and paired t-tests. Ninety intracranial AVMs were identified. Median volume was 4.96 cm3 [interquartile range (IQR) 1.79-8.85] with SRS planning methods and 6.07 cm3 (IQR 1.3-13.6) with ABC/2 methodology. Moderate correlation was seen between SRS and ABC/2 (r = 0.662; P ABC/2 (t = -3.2; P = .002). When AVMs were dichotomized based on ABC/2 volume, significant differences remained (t = 3.1, P = .003 for ABC/2 volume ABC/2 volume > 7 cm3). The ABC/2 method overestimates cerebral AVM volume when compared to volumetric analysis from SRS planning software. For AVMs > 7 cm3, the overestimation is even greater. SRS planning techniques were also significantly different than values derived from equations for cones and cylinders. Copyright © 2017 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

  2. Family history of education predicts eating disorders across multiple generations among 2 million Swedish males and females.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Goodman

    Full Text Available To investigate which facets of parent and grandparent socio-economic position (SEP are associated with eating disorders (ED, and how this varies by ED subtype and over time.Total-population cohort study of 1,040,165 females and 1,098,188 males born 1973-1998 in Sweden, and followed for inpatient or outpatient ED diagnoses until 2010. Proportional hazards models estimated associations with parental education, income and social class, and with grandparental education and income.15,747 females and 1051 males in our sample received an ED diagnosis, with rates increasing in both sexes over time. ED incidence in females was independently predicted by greater educational level among the father, mother and maternal grandparents, but parent social class and parental income showed little or no independent effect. The associations with education were equally strong for anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa and ED not-otherwise-specified, and had increased over time. Among males, an apparently similar pattern was seen with respect to anorexia nervosa, but non-anorexia ED showed no association with parental education and an inverse association with parental income.Family history of education predicts ED in gender- and disorder-specific ways, and in females the effect is observed across multiple generations. Particularly given that these effects may have grown stronger in more recent cohorts, these findings highlight the need for further research to clarify the underlying mechanisms and identify promising targets for prevention. Speculatively, one such mechanism may involve greater internal and external demands for academic success in highly educated families.

  3. Family history of education predicts eating disorders across multiple generations among 2 million Swedish males and females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Anna; Heshmati, Amy; Koupil, Ilona

    2014-01-01

    To investigate which facets of parent and grandparent socio-economic position (SEP) are associated with eating disorders (ED), and how this varies by ED subtype and over time. Total-population cohort study of 1,040,165 females and 1,098,188 males born 1973-1998 in Sweden, and followed for inpatient or outpatient ED diagnoses until 2010. Proportional hazards models estimated associations with parental education, income and social class, and with grandparental education and income. 15,747 females and 1051 males in our sample received an ED diagnosis, with rates increasing in both sexes over time. ED incidence in females was independently predicted by greater educational level among the father, mother and maternal grandparents, but parent social class and parental income showed little or no independent effect. The associations with education were equally strong for anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa and ED not-otherwise-specified, and had increased over time. Among males, an apparently similar pattern was seen with respect to anorexia nervosa, but non-anorexia ED showed no association with parental education and an inverse association with parental income. Family history of education predicts ED in gender- and disorder-specific ways, and in females the effect is observed across multiple generations. Particularly given that these effects may have grown stronger in more recent cohorts, these findings highlight the need for further research to clarify the underlying mechanisms and identify promising targets for prevention. Speculatively, one such mechanism may involve greater internal and external demands for academic success in highly educated families.

  4. Estimating Time-Varying PCB Exposures Using Person-Specific Predictions to Supplement Measured Values: A Comparison of Observed and Predicted Values in Two Cohorts of Norwegian Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Breivik, Knut; Wania, Frank; Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

    2016-03-01

    Studies on the health effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) call for an understanding of past and present human exposure. Time-resolved mechanistic models may supplement information on concentrations in individuals obtained from measurements and/or statistical approaches if they can be shown to reproduce empirical data. Here, we evaluated the capability of one such mechanistic model to reproduce measured PCB concentrations in individual Norwegian women. We also assessed individual life-course concentrations. Concentrations of four PCB congeners in pregnant (n = 310, sampled in 2007-2009) and postmenopausal (n = 244, 2005) women were compared with person-specific predictions obtained using CoZMoMAN, an emission-based environmental fate and human food-chain bioaccumulation model. Person-specific predictions were also made using statistical regression models including dietary and lifestyle variables and concentrations. CoZMoMAN accurately reproduced medians and ranges of measured concentrations in the two study groups. Furthermore, rank correlations between measurements and predictions from both CoZMoMAN and regression analyses were strong (Spearman's r > 0.67). Precision in quartile assignments from predictions was strong overall as evaluated by weighted Cohen's kappa (> 0.6). Simulations indicated large inter-individual differences in concentrations experienced in the past. The mechanistic model reproduced all measurements of PCB concentrations within a factor of 10, and subject ranking and quartile assignments were overall largely consistent, although they were weak within each study group. Contamination histories for individuals predicted by CoZMoMAN revealed variation between study subjects, particularly in the timing of peak concentrations. Mechanistic models can provide individual PCB exposure metrics that could serve as valuable supplements to measurements.

  5. Lemur Biorhythms and Life History Evolution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell T Hogg

    Full Text Available Skeletal histology supports the hypothesis that primate life histories are regulated by a neuroendocrine rhythm, the Havers-Halberg Oscillation (HHO. Interestingly, subfossil lemurs are outliers in HHO scaling relationships that have been discovered for haplorhine primates and other mammals. We present new data to determine whether these species represent the general lemur or strepsirrhine condition and to inform models about neuroendocrine-mediated life history evolution. We gathered the largest sample to date of HHO data from histological sections of primate teeth (including the subfossil lemurs to assess the relationship of these chronobiological measures with life history-related variables including body mass, brain size, age at first female reproduction, and activity level. For anthropoids, these variables show strong correlations with HHO conforming to predictions, though body mass and endocranial volume are strongly correlated with HHO periodicity in this group. However, lemurs (possibly excepting Daubentonia do not follow this pattern and show markedly less variability in HHO periodicity and lower correlation coefficients and slopes. Moreover, body mass is uncorrelated, and brain size and activity levels are more strongly correlated with HHO periodicity in these animals. We argue that lemurs evolved this pattern due to selection for risk-averse life histories driven by the unpredictability of the environment in Madagascar. These results reinforce the idea that HHO influences life history evolution differently in response to specific ecological selection regimes.

  6. Lemur Biorhythms and Life History Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogg, Russell T; Godfrey, Laurie R; Schwartz, Gary T; Dirks, Wendy; Bromage, Timothy G

    2015-01-01

    Skeletal histology supports the hypothesis that primate life histories are regulated by a neuroendocrine rhythm, the Havers-Halberg Oscillation (HHO). Interestingly, subfossil lemurs are outliers in HHO scaling relationships that have been discovered for haplorhine primates and other mammals. We present new data to determine whether these species represent the general lemur or strepsirrhine condition and to inform models about neuroendocrine-mediated life history evolution. We gathered the largest sample to date of HHO data from histological sections of primate teeth (including the subfossil lemurs) to assess the relationship of these chronobiological measures with life history-related variables including body mass, brain size, age at first female reproduction, and activity level. For anthropoids, these variables show strong correlations with HHO conforming to predictions, though body mass and endocranial volume are strongly correlated with HHO periodicity in this group. However, lemurs (possibly excepting Daubentonia) do not follow this pattern and show markedly less variability in HHO periodicity and lower correlation coefficients and slopes. Moreover, body mass is uncorrelated, and brain size and activity levels are more strongly correlated with HHO periodicity in these animals. We argue that lemurs evolved this pattern due to selection for risk-averse life histories driven by the unpredictability of the environment in Madagascar. These results reinforce the idea that HHO influences life history evolution differently in response to specific ecological selection regimes.

  7. Improvement of energy expenditure prediction from heart rate during running

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charlot, Keyne; Borne, Rachel; Richalet, Jean-Paul; Chapelot, Didier; Pichon, Aurélien; Cornolo, Jérémy; Brugniaux, Julien Vincent

    2014-01-01

    We aimed to develop new equations that predict exercise-induced energy expenditure (EE) more accurately than previous ones during running by including new parameters as fitness level, body composition and/or running intensity in addition to heart rate (HR). Original equations predicting EE were created from data obtained during three running intensities (25%, 50% and 70% of HR reserve) performed by 50 subjects. Five equations were conserved according to their accuracy assessed from error rates, interchangeability and correlations analyses: one containing only basic parameters, two containing VO 2max  or speed at VO 2max  and two including running speed with or without HR. Equations accuracy was further tested in an independent sample during a 40 min validation test at 50% of HR reserve. It appeared that: (1) the new basic equation was more accurate than pre-existing equations (R 2  0.809 versus. 0,737 respectively); (2) the prediction of EE was more accurate with the addition of VO 2max  (R 2  = 0.879); and (3) the equations containing running speed were the most accurate and were considered to have good agreement with indirect calorimetry. In conclusion, EE estimation during running might be significantly improved by including running speed in the predictive models, a parameter readily available with treadmill or GPS. (paper)

  8. Protein docking prediction using predicted protein-protein interface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Bin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many important cellular processes are carried out by protein complexes. To provide physical pictures of interacting proteins, many computational protein-protein prediction methods have been developed in the past. However, it is still difficult to identify the correct docking complex structure within top ranks among alternative conformations. Results We present a novel protein docking algorithm that utilizes imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction for guiding protein docking. Since the accuracy of protein binding site prediction varies depending on cases, the challenge is to develop a method which does not deteriorate but improves docking results by using a binding site prediction which may not be 100% accurate. The algorithm, named PI-LZerD (using Predicted Interface with Local 3D Zernike descriptor-based Docking algorithm, is based on a pair wise protein docking prediction algorithm, LZerD, which we have developed earlier. PI-LZerD starts from performing docking prediction using the provided protein-protein binding interface prediction as constraints, which is followed by the second round of docking with updated docking interface information to further improve docking conformation. Benchmark results on bound and unbound cases show that PI-LZerD consistently improves the docking prediction accuracy as compared with docking without using binding site prediction or using the binding site prediction as post-filtering. Conclusion We have developed PI-LZerD, a pairwise docking algorithm, which uses imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction to improve docking accuracy. PI-LZerD consistently showed better prediction accuracy over alternative methods in the series of benchmark experiments including docking using actual docking interface site predictions as well as unbound docking cases.

  9. Protein docking prediction using predicted protein-protein interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bin; Kihara, Daisuke

    2012-01-10

    Many important cellular processes are carried out by protein complexes. To provide physical pictures of interacting proteins, many computational protein-protein prediction methods have been developed in the past. However, it is still difficult to identify the correct docking complex structure within top ranks among alternative conformations. We present a novel protein docking algorithm that utilizes imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction for guiding protein docking. Since the accuracy of protein binding site prediction varies depending on cases, the challenge is to develop a method which does not deteriorate but improves docking results by using a binding site prediction which may not be 100% accurate. The algorithm, named PI-LZerD (using Predicted Interface with Local 3D Zernike descriptor-based Docking algorithm), is based on a pair wise protein docking prediction algorithm, LZerD, which we have developed earlier. PI-LZerD starts from performing docking prediction using the provided protein-protein binding interface prediction as constraints, which is followed by the second round of docking with updated docking interface information to further improve docking conformation. Benchmark results on bound and unbound cases show that PI-LZerD consistently improves the docking prediction accuracy as compared with docking without using binding site prediction or using the binding site prediction as post-filtering. We have developed PI-LZerD, a pairwise docking algorithm, which uses imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction to improve docking accuracy. PI-LZerD consistently showed better prediction accuracy over alternative methods in the series of benchmark experiments including docking using actual docking interface site predictions as well as unbound docking cases.

  10. Techniques for discrimination-free predictive models (Chapter 12)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamiran, F.; Calders, T.G.K.; Pechenizkiy, M.; Custers, B.H.M.; Calders, T.G.K.; Schermer, B.W.; Zarsky, T.Z.

    2013-01-01

    In this chapter, we give an overview of the techniques developed ourselves for constructing discrimination-free classifiers. In discrimination-free classification the goal is to learn a predictive model that classifies future data objects as accurately as possible, yet the predicted labels should be

  11. Towards context aware food sales prediction (Extended abstract)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zliobaite, I.; Bakker, J.; Pechenizkiy, M.; Calders, T.; Tuyls, K.; Pechenizkiy, M.

    2009-01-01

    Introduction: Demand prediction is essential part of business planning. An accurate and timely sales prediction is essential for stock management. That is a crucial part for food wholesales and retail profitability. The stock includes large assortment of goods, some of them require special storage

  12. GMAT versus Alternatives: Predictive Validity Evidence from Central Europe and the Middle East

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koys, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    The author found that the GPA at the end of the MBA program is most accurately predicted by the Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT) and the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL). MBA GPA is also predicted, though less accurately, by the Scholastic Level Exam, a mathematics test, undergraduate GPA, and previous career progression. If…

  13. nuMap: A Web Platform for Accurate Prediction of Nucleosome Positioning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bader A. Alharbi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Nucleosome positioning is critical for gene expression and of major biological interest. The high cost of experimentally mapping nucleosomal arrangement signifies the need for computational approaches to predict nucleosome positions at high resolution. Here, we present a web-based application to fulfill this need by implementing two models, YR and W/S schemes, for the translational and rotational positioning of nucleosomes, respectively. Our methods are based on sequence-dependent anisotropic bending that dictates how DNA is wrapped around a histone octamer. This application allows users to specify a number of options such as schemes and parameters for threading calculation and provides multiple layout formats. The nuMap is implemented in Java/Perl/MySQL and is freely available for public use at http://numap.rit.edu. The user manual, implementation notes, description of the methodology and examples are available at the site.

  14. Life History Strategy and Disordered Eating Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Salmon

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available A sample of female undergraduates completed a packet of questionnaires consisting of the Arizona Life History Battery, a modified version of the Eating Disorders Inventory, the Behavioral Regulation scales from the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function, and two measures of Female Intrasexual Competitiveness that distinguished between competition for mates and competition for status. As predicted, Executive Functions completely mediated the relation between Slow Life History Strategy and Disordered Eating Behavior. Surprisingly, however, the relation between Female Intrasexual Competitiveness (competition for mates and competition for status and Disordered Eating Behavior was completely spurious, with executive functions serving as a common cause underlying the inhibition of both Disordered Eating Behavior and Female Intrasexual Competitiveness. The protective function of Slow Life History Strategy with respect to Disordered Eating Behavior apparently resides in a higher degree of Behavioral Regulation, a type of Executive Function. The enhanced Behavioral Regulation or self-control, of individuals with a Slow Life History Strategy is also protective against hazardously escalated levels of Female Intrasexual Competitiveness.

  15. Prediction of failure strain and burst pressure in high yield-to-tensile strength ratio linepipe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Law, M.; Bowie, G.

    2007-01-01

    Failure pressures and strains were predicted for a number of burst tests as part of a project to explore failure strain in high yield-to-tensile strength ratio linepipe. Twenty-three methods for predicting the burst pressure and six methods of predicting the failure strain are compared with test results. Several methods were identified which gave accurate and reliable estimates of burst pressure. No method of accurately predicting the failure strain was found, though the best was noted

  16. Prediction of failure strain and burst pressure in high yield-to-tensile strength ratio linepipe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Law, M. [Institute of Materials and Engineering Science, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Lucas Heights, NSW (Australia)]. E-mail: mlx@ansto.gov.au; Bowie, G. [BlueScope Steel Ltd., Level 11, 120 Collins St, Melbourne, Victoria 3000 (Australia)

    2007-08-15

    Failure pressures and strains were predicted for a number of burst tests as part of a project to explore failure strain in high yield-to-tensile strength ratio linepipe. Twenty-three methods for predicting the burst pressure and six methods of predicting the failure strain are compared with test results. Several methods were identified which gave accurate and reliable estimates of burst pressure. No method of accurately predicting the failure strain was found, though the best was noted.

  17. Improving risk assessment in schizophrenia: epidemiological investigation of criminal history factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Katrina; Lichtenstein, Paul; Fazel, Seena

    2015-05-01

    Violence risk assessment in schizophrenia relies heavily on criminal history factors. To investigate which criminal history factors are most strongly associated with violent crime in schizophrenia. A total of 13 806 individuals (8891 men and 4915 women) with two or more hospital admissions for schizophrenia were followed up for violent convictions. Multivariate hazard ratios for 15 criminal history factors included in different risk assessment tools were calculated. The incremental predictive validity of these factors was estimated using tests of discrimination, calibration and reclassification. Over a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 17.3% of men (n = 1535) and 5.7% of women (n = 281) were convicted of a violent offence. Criminal history factors most strongly associated with subsequent violence for both men and women were a previous conviction for a violent offence; for assault, illegal threats and/or intimidation; and imprisonment. However, only a previous conviction for a violent offence was associated with incremental predictive validity in both genders following adjustment for young age and comorbid substance use disorder. Clinical and actuarial approaches to assess violence risk can be improved if included risk factors are tested using multiple measures of performance. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2015.

  18. Understanding the natural history of Gaucher disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mistry, Pramod K; Belmatoug, Nadia; vom Dahl, Stephan; Giugliani, Roberto

    2015-07-01

    Gaucher disease is a rare and extraordinarily heterogeneous inborn error of metabolism that exhibits diverse manifestations, a broad range of age of onset of symptoms, and a wide clinical spectrum of disease severity, from lethal disease during infancy to first age of onset of symptoms in octogenarians. Before the advent of the International Collaborative Gaucher Group (ICGG) Gaucher Registry, the understanding of the natural history and phenotypic range of Gaucher disease was based on isolated case reports and small case series. Limited data hindered understanding of the full spectrum of the disease leading to some early misconceptions about Gaucher disease, notably, that nonneuronopathic (type 1) disease was a disease of adults only. The global scope of the ICGG Gaucher Registry, with its vast body of longitudinal data, has enabled a real appreciation of both the phenotypic spectrum of Gaucher disease and its natural history. This body of evidence represents the foundation for accurate assessment of the response to specific therapies for Gaucher disease and to the development of standard-of-care to monitor disease activity. Here, we outline the key developments in delineating the natural history of this highly complex disease and role of the ICGG Gaucher Registry in this effort. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. MFPred: Rapid and accurate prediction of protein-peptide recognition multispecificity using self-consistent mean field theory.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliza B Rubenstein

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Multispecificity-the ability of a single receptor protein molecule to interact with multiple substrates-is a hallmark of molecular recognition at protein-protein and protein-peptide interfaces, including enzyme-substrate complexes. The ability to perform structure-based prediction of multispecificity would aid in the identification of novel enzyme substrates, protein interaction partners, and enable design of novel enzymes targeted towards alternative substrates. The relatively slow speed of current biophysical, structure-based methods limits their use for prediction and, especially, design of multispecificity. Here, we develop a rapid, flexible-backbone self-consistent mean field theory-based technique, MFPred, for multispecificity modeling at protein-peptide interfaces. We benchmark our method by predicting experimentally determined peptide specificity profiles for a range of receptors: protease and kinase enzymes, and protein recognition modules including SH2, SH3, MHC Class I and PDZ domains. We observe robust recapitulation of known specificities for all receptor-peptide complexes, and comparison with other methods shows that MFPred results in equivalent or better prediction accuracy with a ~10-1000-fold decrease in computational expense. We find that modeling bound peptide backbone flexibility is key to the observed accuracy of the method. We used MFPred for predicting with high accuracy the impact of receptor-side mutations on experimentally determined multispecificity of a protease enzyme. Our approach should enable the design of a wide range of altered receptor proteins with programmed multispecificities.

  20. Generation time, life history and the substitution rate of neutral mutations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtonen, Jussi; Lanfear, Robert

    2014-11-01

    Our understanding of molecular evolution is hampered by a lack of quantitative predictions about how life-history (LH) traits should correlate with substitution rates. Comparative studies have shown that neutral substitution rates vary substantially between species, and evidence shows that much of this diversity is associated with variation in LH traits. However, while these studies often agree, some unexplained and contradictory results have emerged. Explaining these results is difficult without a clear theoretical understanding of the problem. In this study, we derive predictions for the relationships between LH traits and substitution rates in iteroparous species by using demographic theory to relate commonly measured life-history traits to genetic generation time, and by implication to neutral substitution rates. This provides some surprisingly simple explanations for otherwise confusing patterns, such as the association between fecundity and substitution rates. The same framework can be applied to more complex life histories if full life-tables are available. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  1. Accurate prediction of the functional significance of single nucleotide polymorphisms and mutations in the ABCA1 gene.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liam R Brunham

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available The human genome contains an estimated 100,000 to 300,000 DNA variants that alter an amino acid in an encoded protein. However, our ability to predict which of these variants are functionally significant is limited. We used a bioinformatics approach to define the functional significance of genetic variation in the ABCA1 gene, a cholesterol transporter crucial for the metabolism of high density lipoprotein cholesterol. To predict the functional consequence of each coding single nucleotide polymorphism and mutation in this gene, we calculated a substitution position-specific evolutionary conservation score for each variant, which considers site-specific variation among evolutionarily related proteins. To test the bioinformatics predictions experimentally, we evaluated the biochemical consequence of these sequence variants by examining the ability of cell lines stably transfected with the ABCA1 alleles to elicit cholesterol efflux. Our bioinformatics approach correctly predicted the functional impact of greater than 94% of the naturally occurring variants we assessed. The bioinformatics predictions were significantly correlated with the degree of functional impairment of ABCA1 mutations (r2 = 0.62, p = 0.0008. These results have allowed us to define the impact of genetic variation on ABCA1 function and to suggest that the in silico evolutionary approach we used may be a useful tool in general for predicting the effects of DNA variation on gene function. In addition, our data suggest that considering patterns of positive selection, along with patterns of negative selection such as evolutionary conservation, may improve our ability to predict the functional effects of amino acid variation.

  2. Catalogue of Meteor Showers and Storms in Korean History

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Hyeon Ahn

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available We present a more complete and accurate catalogue of astronomical records for meteor showers and meteor storms appeared in primary official Korean history books, such as Samguk-sagi, Koryo-sa, Seungjeongwon-ilgi, and Choson-Wangjo-Sillok. So far the catalogue made by Imoto and Hasegawa in 1958 has been widely used in the international astronomical society. The catalogue is based on a report by Sekiguchi in 1917 that is mainly based on secondary history books. We observed that the catalogue has a number of errors in either dates or sources of the records. We have thoroughly checked the primary official history books, instead of the secondary ones, in order to make a corrected and extended catalogue. The catalogue contains 25 records of meteor storms, four records of intense meteor-showers, and five records of usual showers in Korean history. We also find that some of those records seem to correspond to some presently active meteor showers such as the Leonids, the Perseids, and the ¥ç-Aquarids-Orionids pair. However, a large number of those records do not correspond to such present showers. This catalogue we obtained can be useful for various astrophysical studies in the future.

  3. Predicting and Supplying Human Resource Requirements for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blake, Larry J.

    After asserting that public institutions should not provide training for nonexistent jobs, this paper reviews problems associated with the accurate prediction of future manpower needs. The paper reviews the processes currently used to project labor force needs and notes the difficulty of accurately forecasting labor market "surprises,"…

  4. Prediction methods and databases within chemoinformatics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsdóttir, Svava Osk; Jørgensen, Flemming Steen; Brunak, Søren

    2005-01-01

    MOTIVATION: To gather information about available databases and chemoinformatics methods for prediction of properties relevant to the drug discovery and optimization process. RESULTS: We present an overview of the most important databases with 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional structural information...... about drugs and drug candidates, and of databases with relevant properties. Access to experimental data and numerical methods for selecting and utilizing these data is crucial for developing accurate predictive in silico models. Many interesting predictive methods for classifying the suitability...

  5. Towards accurate emergency response behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sargent, T.O.

    1981-01-01

    Nuclear reactor operator emergency response behavior has persisted as a training problem through lack of information. The industry needs an accurate definition of operator behavior in adverse stress conditions, and training methods which will produce the desired behavior. Newly assembled information from fifty years of research into human behavior in both high and low stress provides a more accurate definition of appropriate operator response, and supports training methods which will produce the needed control room behavior. The research indicates that operator response in emergencies is divided into two modes, conditioned behavior and knowledge based behavior. Methods which assure accurate conditioned behavior, and provide for the recovery of knowledge based behavior, are described in detail

  6. Interpreting Disruption Prediction Models to Improve Plasma Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Matthew

    2017-10-01

    In order for the tokamak to be a feasible design for a fusion reactor, it is necessary to minimize damage to the machine caused by plasma disruptions. Accurately predicting disruptions is a critical capability for triggering any mitigative actions, and a modest amount of attention has been given to efforts that employ machine learning techniques to make these predictions. By monitoring diagnostic signals during a discharge, such predictive models look for signs that the plasma is about to disrupt. Typically these predictive models are interpreted simply to give a `yes' or `no' response as to whether a disruption is approaching. However, it is possible to extract further information from these models to indicate which input signals are more strongly correlated with the plasma approaching a disruption. If highly accurate predictive models can be developed, this information could be used in plasma control schemes to make better decisions about disruption avoidance. This work was supported by a Grant from the 2016-2017 Fulbright U.S. Student Program, administered by the Franco-American Fulbright Commission in France.

  7. DIOPS: A PC-Based Wave, Tide and Surf Prediction System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Allard, Richard; Dykes, James; Kaihatu, James; Wakeham, Dean

    2005-01-01

    The Distributed Integrated Ocean Prediciton System (DIOPS) is a PC-based wave tide and surf prediction system designed to provide DoD accurate and timely surf predictions for essentially any world-wide location...

  8. Predictive ability of machine learning methods for massive crop yield prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Gonzalez-Sanchez

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available An important issue for agricultural planning purposes is the accurate yield estimation for the numerous crops involved in the planning. Machine learning (ML is an essential approach for achieving practical and effective solutions for this problem. Many comparisons of ML methods for yield prediction have been made, seeking for the most accurate technique. Generally, the number of evaluated crops and techniques is too low and does not provide enough information for agricultural planning purposes. This paper compares the predictive accuracy of ML and linear regression techniques for crop yield prediction in ten crop datasets. Multiple linear regression, M5-Prime regression trees, perceptron multilayer neural networks, support vector regression and k-nearest neighbor methods were ranked. Four accuracy metrics were used to validate the models: the root mean square error (RMS, root relative square error (RRSE, normalized mean absolute error (MAE, and correlation factor (R. Real data of an irrigation zone of Mexico were used for building the models. Models were tested with samples of two consecutive years. The results show that M5-Prime and k-nearest neighbor techniques obtain the lowest average RMSE errors (5.14 and 4.91, the lowest RRSE errors (79.46% and 79.78%, the lowest average MAE errors (18.12% and 19.42%, and the highest average correlation factors (0.41 and 0.42. Since M5-Prime achieves the largest number of crop yield models with the lowest errors, it is a very suitable tool for massive crop yield prediction in agricultural planning.

  9. Selecting Optimal Random Forest Predictive Models: A Case Study on Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Seabed Hardness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jin; Tran, Maggie; Siwabessy, Justy

    2016-01-01

    Spatially continuous predictions of seabed hardness are important baseline environmental information for sustainable management of Australia’s marine jurisdiction. Seabed hardness is often inferred from multibeam backscatter data with unknown accuracy and can be inferred from underwater video footage at limited locations. In this study, we classified the seabed into four classes based on two new seabed hardness classification schemes (i.e., hard90 and hard70). We developed optimal predictive models to predict seabed hardness using random forest (RF) based on the point data of hardness classes and spatially continuous multibeam data. Five feature selection (FS) methods that are variable importance (VI), averaged variable importance (AVI), knowledge informed AVI (KIAVI), Boruta and regularized RF (RRF) were tested based on predictive accuracy. Effects of highly correlated, important and unimportant predictors on the accuracy of RF predictive models were examined. Finally, spatial predictions generated using the most accurate models were visually examined and analysed. This study confirmed that: 1) hard90 and hard70 are effective seabed hardness classification schemes; 2) seabed hardness of four classes can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy; 3) the typical approach used to pre-select predictive variables by excluding highly correlated variables needs to be re-examined; 4) the identification of the important and unimportant predictors provides useful guidelines for further improving predictive models; 5) FS methods select the most accurate predictive model(s) instead of the most parsimonious ones, and AVI and Boruta are recommended for future studies; and 6) RF is an effective modelling method with high predictive accuracy for multi-level categorical data and can be applied to ‘small p and large n’ problems in environmental sciences. Additionally, automated computational programs for AVI need to be developed to increase its computational efficiency and

  10. nuMap: a web platform for accurate prediction of nucleosome positioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alharbi, Bader A; Alshammari, Thamir H; Felton, Nathan L; Zhurkin, Victor B; Cui, Feng

    2014-10-01

    Nucleosome positioning is critical for gene expression and of major biological interest. The high cost of experimentally mapping nucleosomal arrangement signifies the need for computational approaches to predict nucleosome positions at high resolution. Here, we present a web-based application to fulfill this need by implementing two models, YR and W/S schemes, for the translational and rotational positioning of nucleosomes, respectively. Our methods are based on sequence-dependent anisotropic bending that dictates how DNA is wrapped around a histone octamer. This application allows users to specify a number of options such as schemes and parameters for threading calculation and provides multiple layout formats. The nuMap is implemented in Java/Perl/MySQL and is freely available for public use at http://numap.rit.edu. The user manual, implementation notes, description of the methodology and examples are available at the site. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Genomic Prediction from Whole Genome Sequence in Livestock: The 1000 Bull Genomes Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hayes, Benjamin J; MacLeod, Iona M; Daetwyler, Hans D

    Advantages of using whole genome sequence data to predict genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) include better persistence of accuracy of GEBV across generations and more accurate GEBV across breeds. The 1000 Bull Genomes Project provides a database of whole genome sequenced key ancestor bulls....... In a dairy data set, predictions using BayesRC and imputed sequence data from 1000 Bull Genomes were 2% more accurate than with 800k data. We could demonstrate the method identified causal mutations in some cases. Further improvements will come from more accurate imputation of sequence variant genotypes...

  12. Requirements for accurately diagnosing chronic partial upper urinary tract obstruction in children with hydronephrosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koff, Stephen A.

    2008-01-01

    Successful management of hydronephrosis in the newborn requires early accurate diagnosis to identify or exclude ureteropelvic junction obstruction. However, the presence of hydronephrosis does not define obstruction and displays unique behavior in the newborn. The hydronephrotic kidney usually has nearly normal differential renal function at birth, has not been subjected to progressive dilation and except for pelvocaliectasis does not often show signs of high-grade obstruction. Furthermore, severe hydronephrosis resolves spontaneously in more than 65% of newborns with differential renal function stable or improving. The diagnosis of obstruction in newborn hydronephrosis is challenging because the currently available diagnostic tests, ultrasonography and diuretic renography have demonstrated inaccuracy in diagnosing obstruction and predicting which hydronephrotic kidney will undergo deterioration if untreated. Accurate diagnosis of obstruction is possible but it requires an understanding of the uniqueness of both the pathophysiology of obstruction and the biology of the kidney and renal collecting system in this age group. We examine here the requirements for making an accurate diagnosis of obstruction in the young child with hydronephrosis. (orig.)

  13. Requirements for accurately diagnosing chronic partial upper urinary tract obstruction in children with hydronephrosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koff, Stephen A. [Ohio State University College of Medicine, Section of Pediatric Urology, Columbus Children' s Hospital, Columbus, OH (United States)

    2008-01-15

    Successful management of hydronephrosis in the newborn requires early accurate diagnosis to identify or exclude ureteropelvic junction obstruction. However, the presence of hydronephrosis does not define obstruction and displays unique behavior in the newborn. The hydronephrotic kidney usually has nearly normal differential renal function at birth, has not been subjected to progressive dilation and except for pelvocaliectasis does not often show signs of high-grade obstruction. Furthermore, severe hydronephrosis resolves spontaneously in more than 65% of newborns with differential renal function stable or improving. The diagnosis of obstruction in newborn hydronephrosis is challenging because the currently available diagnostic tests, ultrasonography and diuretic renography have demonstrated inaccuracy in diagnosing obstruction and predicting which hydronephrotic kidney will undergo deterioration if untreated. Accurate diagnosis of obstruction is possible but it requires an understanding of the uniqueness of both the pathophysiology of obstruction and the biology of the kidney and renal collecting system in this age group. We examine here the requirements for making an accurate diagnosis of obstruction in the young child with hydronephrosis. (orig.)

  14. Oxidative stress and life histories: unresolved issues and current needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speakman, John R; Blount, Jonathan D; Bronikowski, Anne M; Buffenstein, Rochelle; Isaksson, Caroline; Kirkwood, Tom B L; Monaghan, Pat; Ozanne, Susan E; Beaulieu, Michaël; Briga, Michael; Carr, Sarah K; Christensen, Louise L; Cochemé, Helena M; Cram, Dominic L; Dantzer, Ben; Harper, Jim M; Jurk, Diana; King, Annette; Noguera, Jose C; Salin, Karine; Sild, Elin; Simons, Mirre J P; Smith, Shona; Stier, Antoine; Tobler, Michael; Vitikainen, Emma; Peaker, Malcolm; Selman, Colin

    2015-12-01

    Life-history theory concerns the trade-offs that mold the patterns of investment by animals between reproduction, growth, and survival. It is widely recognized that physiology plays a role in the mediation of life-history trade-offs, but the details remain obscure. As life-history theory concerns aspects of investment in the soma that influence survival, understanding the physiological basis of life histories is related, but not identical, to understanding the process of aging. One idea from the field of aging that has gained considerable traction in the area of life histories is that life-history trade-offs may be mediated by free radical production and oxidative stress. We outline here developments in this field and summarize a number of important unresolved issues that may guide future research efforts. The issues are as follows. First, different tissues and macromolecular targets of oxidative stress respond differently during reproduction. The functional significance of these changes, however, remains uncertain. Consequently there is a need for studies that link oxidative stress measurements to functional outcomes, such as survival. Second, measurements of oxidative stress are often highly invasive or terminal. Terminal studies of oxidative stress in wild animals, where detailed life-history information is available, cannot generally be performed without compromising the aims of the studies that generated the life-history data. There is a need therefore for novel non-invasive measurements of multi-tissue oxidative stress. Third, laboratory studies provide unrivaled opportunities for experimental manipulation but may fail to expose the physiology underpinning life-history effects, because of the benign laboratory environment. Fourth, the idea that oxidative stress might underlie life-history trade-offs does not make specific enough predictions that are amenable to testing. Moreover, there is a paucity of good alternative theoretical models on which contrasting

  15. Approaches for the accurate definition of geological time boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaltegger, Urs; Baresel, Björn; Ovtcharova, Maria; Goudemand, Nicolas; Bucher, Hugo

    2015-04-01

    Which strategies lead to the most precise and accurate date of a given geological boundary? Geological units are usually defined by the occurrence of characteristic taxa and hence boundaries between these geological units correspond to dramatic faunal and/or floral turnovers and they are primarily defined using first or last occurrences of index species, or ideally by the separation interval between two consecutive, characteristic associations of fossil taxa. These boundaries need to be defined in a way that enables their worldwide recognition and correlation across different stratigraphic successions, using tools as different as bio-, magneto-, and chemo-stratigraphy, and astrochronology. Sedimentary sequences can be dated in numerical terms by applying high-precision chemical-abrasion, isotope-dilution, thermal-ionization mass spectrometry (CA-ID-TIMS) U-Pb age determination to zircon (ZrSiO4) in intercalated volcanic ashes. But, though volcanic activity is common in geological history, ashes are not necessarily close to the boundary we would like to date precisely and accurately. In addition, U-Pb zircon data sets may be very complex and difficult to interpret in terms of the age of ash deposition. To overcome these difficulties we use a multi-proxy approach we applied to the precise and accurate dating of the Permo-Triassic and Early-Middle Triassic boundaries in South China. a) Dense sampling of ashes across the critical time interval and a sufficiently large number of analysed zircons per ash sample can guarantee the recognition of all system complexities. Geochronological datasets from U-Pb dating of volcanic zircon may indeed combine effects of i) post-crystallization Pb loss from percolation of hydrothermal fluids (even using chemical abrasion), with ii) age dispersion from prolonged residence of earlier crystallized zircon in the magmatic system. As a result, U-Pb dates of individual zircons are both apparently younger and older than the depositional age

  16. Prospects for determination of thermal history after inflation with future gravitational wave detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuroyanagi, Sachiko; Nakayama, Kazunori; Saito, Shun

    2011-01-01

    Thermal history of the Universe between inflation and big-bang nucleosynthesis has not yet been revealed observationally. It will be probed by the detection of primordial gravitational waves generated during inflation, which contain information on the reheating temperature as well as the equation of state of the Universe after inflation. Based on the Fisher information formalism, we examine how accurately the tensor-to-scalar ratio and reheating temperature after inflation can be simultaneously determined with space-based gravitational wave detectors such as the DECI-hertz Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory and the Big-Bang Observer. We show that the reheating temperature is best determined if it is around 10 7 GeV for tensor-to-scalar ratio of around 0.1, and explore the detectable parameter space. We also find that equation of state of the early Universe can be also determined accurately enough to distinguish different equation-of-state parameters if the inflationary gravitational waves are successfully detected. Thus, future gravitational wave detectors provide a unique and promising opportunity to reveal the thermal history of the Universe around 10 7 GeV.

  17. Prediction of Hydrocarbon Reservoirs Permeability Using Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Gholami

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Permeability is a key parameter associated with the characterization of any hydrocarbon reservoir. In fact, it is not possible to have accurate solutions to many petroleum engineering problems without having accurate permeability value. The conventional methods for permeability determination are core analysis and well test techniques. These methods are very expensive and time consuming. Therefore, attempts have usually been carried out to use artificial neural network for identification of the relationship between the well log data and core permeability. In this way, recent works on artificial intelligence techniques have led to introduce a robust machine learning methodology called support vector machine. This paper aims to utilize the SVM for predicting the permeability of three gas wells in the Southern Pars field. Obtained results of SVM showed that the correlation coefficient between core and predicted permeability is 0.97 for testing dataset. Comparing the result of SVM with that of a general regression neural network (GRNN revealed that the SVM approach is faster and more accurate than the GRNN in prediction of hydrocarbon reservoirs permeability.

  18. Nuclear power history calculation for subcritical systems using Euler-MacLaurin formula

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henrice Junior, Edson; Goncalves, Alessandro da Cruz

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an efficient method for calculating the reactivity using inverse point kinetic equation for subcritical systems by applying the Euler-MacLaurin summation formula to calculate the nuclear power history. In accordance with the accuracy of the numerical results, this method does not require a large number of points for calculation, providing accurate results with low computational cost. (author)

  19. Final Technical Report: Increasing Prediction Accuracy.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King, Bruce Hardison [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hansen, Clifford [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stein, Joshua [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-12-01

    PV performance models are used to quantify the value of PV plants in a given location. They combine the performance characteristics of the system, the measured or predicted irradiance and weather at a site, and the system configuration and design into a prediction of the amount of energy that will be produced by a PV system. These predictions must be as accurate as possible in order for finance charges to be minimized. Higher accuracy equals lower project risk. The Increasing Prediction Accuracy project at Sandia focuses on quantifying and reducing uncertainties in PV system performance models.

  20. Prediction of the pressure-time history due to fuel-sodium interaction in a subassembly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobs, H.

    1975-01-01

    A local cooling disturbance may lead to complete voiding of a subassembly and melt down of the fuel pins. Thus molten fuel may be accumulated and mixed with liquid sodium returning accidentally into the subassembly. The resulting fuel-sodium interaction (FSI) produces a pressure load on the surrounding core structures. It is necessary to prove that the corresponding core deformation neither initiates a nuclear excursion nor renders the shut down system inoperable. This requires the knowledge of the initiating FSI pressure time history. In this paper a theoretical pressure time history is presented which differs completely from all calculations known so far. (Auth.)

  1. Accurate prediction of the ammonia probes of a variable proton-to-electron mass ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, A.; Yurchenko, S. N.; Thiel, W.; Špirko, V.

    2015-07-01

    A comprehensive study of the mass sensitivity of the vibration-rotation-inversion transitions of 14NH3, 15NH3, 14ND3 and 15ND3 is carried out variationally using the TROVE approach. Variational calculations are robust and accurate, offering a new way to compute sensitivity coefficients. Particular attention is paid to the Δk = ±3 transitions between the accidentally coinciding rotation-inversion energy levels of the ν2 = 0+, 0-, 1+ and 1- states, and the inversion transitions in the ν4 = 1 state affected by the `giant' l-type doubling effect. These transitions exhibit highly anomalous sensitivities, thus appearing as promising probes of a possible cosmological variation of the proton-to-electron mass ratio μ. Moreover, a simultaneous comparison of the calculated sensitivities reveals a sizeable isotopic dependence which could aid an exclusive ammonia detection.

  2. An update to the HIV-TRePS system: the development of new computational models that do not require a genotype to predict HIV treatment outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revell, Andrew D; Wang, Dechao; Wood, Robin; Morrow, Carl; Tempelman, Hugo; Hamers, Raph; Alvarez-Uria, Gerardo; Streinu-Cercel, Adrian; Ene, Luminita; Wensing, Annemarie; Reiss, Peter; van Sighem, Ard I; Nelson, Mark; Emery, Sean; Montaner, Julio S G; Lane, H Clifford; Larder, Brendan A

    2014-04-01

    The optimal individualized selection of antiretroviral drugs in resource-limited settings is challenging because of the limited availability of drugs and genotyping. Here we describe the development of the latest computational models to predict the response to combination antiretroviral therapy without a genotype, for potential use in such settings. Random forest models were trained to predict the probability of a virological response to therapy (HIV RNA/mL) following virological failure using the following data from 22,567 treatment-change episodes including 1090 from southern Africa: baseline viral load and CD4 cell count, treatment history, drugs in the new regimen, time to follow-up and follow-up viral load. The models were assessed during cross-validation and with an independent global test set of 1000 cases including 100 from southern Africa. The models' accuracy [area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC)] was evaluated and compared with genotyping using rules-based interpretation systems for those cases with genotypes available. The models achieved AUCs of 0.79-0.84 (mean 0.82) during cross-validation, 0.80 with the global test set and 0.78 with the southern African subset. The AUCs were significantly lower (0.56-0.57) for genotyping. The models predicted virological response to HIV therapy without a genotype as accurately as previous models that included a genotype. They were accurate for cases from southern Africa and significantly more accurate than genotyping. These models will be accessible via the online treatment support tool HIV-TRePS and have the potential to help optimize antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings where genotyping is not generally available.

  3. Risk score for predicting long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chuntao; Camacho, Fabian T; Wechsler, Andrew S; Lahey, Stephen; Culliford, Alfred T; Jordan, Desmond; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R; Hannan, Edward L

    2012-05-22

    No simplified bedside risk scores have been created to predict long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The New York State Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to identify 8597 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in July through December 2000. The National Death Index was used to ascertain patients' vital statuses through December 31, 2007. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after CABG surgery using preprocedural risk factors. Then, points were assigned to significant predictors of death on the basis of the values of their regression coefficients. For each possible point total, the predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 were calculated. It was found that the 7-year mortality rate was 24.2 in the study population. Significant predictors of death included age, body mass index, ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, left main coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, renal failure, and history of open heart surgery. The points assigned to these risk factors ranged from 1 to 7; possible point totals for each patient ranged from 0 to 28. The observed and predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 across patient groups stratified by point totals were highly correlated. The simplified risk score accurately predicted the risk of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery and can be used for informed consent and as an aid in determining treatment choice.

  4. Programming Useful Life Prediction (PULP), Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Accurately predicting Remaining Useful Life (RUL) provides significant benefits—it increases safety and reduces financial and labor resource requirements. Relying on...

  5. Parsimony in personality: predicting sexual prejudice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Audrey K; Wagner, Maverick M; Hunt, Amy N

    2012-01-01

    Extant research has established numerous demographic, personal-history, attitudinal, and ideological correlates of sexual prejudice, also known as homophobia. The present study investigated whether Five-Factor Model (FFM) personality domains, particularly Openness, and FFM facets, particularly Openness to Values, contribute independent and incremental variance to the prediction of sexual prejudice beyond these established correlates. Participants were 117 college students who completed a comprehensive FFM measure, measures of sexual prejudice, and a demographics, personal-history, and attitudes-and-ideologies questionnaire. Results of stepwise multiple regression analyses demonstrated that, whereas Openness domain score predicted only marginal incremental variance in sexual prejudice, Openness facet scores (particularly Openness to Values) predicted independent and substantial incremental variance beyond numerous other zero-order correlates of sexual prejudice. The importance of integrating FFM personality variables, especially facet-level variables, into conceptualizations of sexual prejudice is highlighted. Study strengths and weaknesses are discussed as are potential implications for prejudice-reduction interventions.

  6. Spectrally accurate contour dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Buskirk, R.D.; Marcus, P.S.

    1994-01-01

    We present an exponentially accurate boundary integral method for calculation the equilibria and dynamics of piece-wise constant distributions of potential vorticity. The method represents contours of potential vorticity as a spectral sum and solves the Biot-Savart equation for the velocity by spectrally evaluating a desingularized contour integral. We use the technique in both an initial-value code and a newton continuation method. Our methods are tested by comparing the numerical solutions with known analytic results, and it is shown that for the same amount of computational work our spectral methods are more accurate than other contour dynamics methods currently in use

  7. Accurate particle speed prediction by improved particle speed measurement and 3-dimensional particle size and shape characterization technique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cernuschi, Federico; Rothleitner, Christian; Clausen, Sønnik

    2017-01-01

    Accurate particle mass and velocity measurement is needed for interpreting test results in erosion tests of materials and coatings. The impact and damage of a surface is influenced by the kinetic energy of a particle, i.e. particle mass and velocity. Particle mass is usually determined with optic...

  8. Disturbance observer based model predictive control for accurate atmospheric entry of spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chao; Yang, Jun; Li, Shihua; Li, Qi; Guo, Lei

    2018-05-01

    Facing the complex aerodynamic environment of Mars atmosphere, a composite atmospheric entry trajectory tracking strategy is investigated in this paper. External disturbances, initial states uncertainties and aerodynamic parameters uncertainties are the main problems. The composite strategy is designed to solve these problems and improve the accuracy of Mars atmospheric entry. This strategy includes a model predictive control for optimized trajectory tracking performance, as well as a disturbance observer based feedforward compensation for external disturbances and uncertainties attenuation. 500-run Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed composite control scheme achieves more precise Mars atmospheric entry (3.8 km parachute deployment point distribution error) than the baseline control scheme (8.4 km) and integral control scheme (5.8 km).

  9. History or histories of socio-economic rights?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Christian O.

    2016-01-01

    The German historian Reinhart Koselleck was once described as a partisan for histories in the plural (as opposed to history in the singular). His point was that history has many different layers, logics, and temporalities and that the modernist idea of one, overarching history with one direction ......) at work in the histories and dynamics of socio-economic rights. More specifically, I propose a list of eight important variables that may help explain the dynamics of the histories of socio-economic rights - their failures as well as their successes....... (telos) – be it towards progress or decline – was inadequate for the multi-faceted geographies, rhythms and dynamics of life. In these reflections on a two-days research workshop in Paris, I argue that Koselleck’s point also applies to the field of the history of socio-economic rights. Instead of writing...... the history of socio-economic rights, I would propose thinking about the histories of socio-economic rights. There are three main reasons for this: the non-teleological histories of socioeconomic rights; the distinctiveness between different socio-economic rights; and the complexity (multiple variables...

  10. Subjective Sleep Quality in Women With Divorce Histories: The Role of Intimate Partner Victimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Tamara L; Burns, Vicki Ellison; Miller, James J; Fernandez-Botran, G Rafael

    2016-05-01

    A marital status of divorced or separated, as opposed to married, predicts increased risk of health problems, but not for all persons. Focusing on one established health risk that has been linked with divorce--poor subjective sleep quality--the present cross-sectional study examined whether a history of physical intimate partner victimization (IPV) helps identify divorced women at potentially greater risk of health problems. Community midlife women with divorce histories, all of whom were free of current IPV, reported on their past month sleep quality and lifetime IPV. The predicted odds of poor sleep quality were significantly greater for women with, versus without, IPV histories. This held after adjusting for socioemotional, medical, or sociodemographic risks. A dose-response relationship between IPV chronicity and poor quality sleep was observed. IPV history may help identify divorced women at increased risk of poor quality sleep and, more broadly, poor health. © The Author(s) 2015.

  11. The choice of a 'Best' assisted history matching algorithm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hanea, R.G.; Przybysz-Jarnut, J.K.; Krymskaya, M.V.; Heemink, A.W.; Jansen, J.D.

    2010-01-01

    Computer-assisted history matching is the act of systematicalty adjusting a ‘prior’ reservoir model using measured data until its simulated production response closely reproduces the past behavior of the reservoir. Thereafler, the updated, ‘posterior’, model is expected to predict future reservoir

  12. Towards accurate prediction of unbalance response, oil whirl and oil whip of flexible rotors supported by hydrodynamic bearings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eling, R.P.T.; te Wierik, M.; van Ostayen, R.A.J.; Rixen, D.J.

    2016-01-01

    Journal bearings are used to support rotors in a wide range of applications. In order to ensure reliable operation, accurate analyses of these rotor-bearing systems are crucial. Coupled analysis of the rotor and the journal bearing is essential in the case that the rotor is flexible. The accuracy of

  13. Retesting of liquefaction and nonliquefaction case histories from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moss, R.E.S.; Kayen, R.E.; Tong, L.-Y.; Liu, S.-Y.; Cai, G.-J.; Wu, J.

    2011-01-01

    A field investigation was performed to retest liquefaction and nonliquefaction sites from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake in China. These sites were carefully investigated in 1978 and 1979 by using standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) equipment; however, the CPT measurements are obsolete because of the now nonstandard cone that was used at the time. In 2007, a modern cone was mobilized to retest 18 selected sites that are particularly important because of the intense ground shaking they sustained despite their high fines content and/or because the site did not liquefy. Of the sites reinvestigated and carefully reprocessed, 13 were considered accurate representative case histories. Two of the sites that were originally investigated for liquefaction have been reinvestigated for cyclic failure of fine-grained soil and removed from consideration for liquefaction triggering. The most important outcome of these field investigations was the collection of more accurate data for three nonliquefaction sites that experienced intense ground shaking. Data for these three case histories is now included in an area of the liquefaction triggering database that was poorly populated and will help constrain the upper bound of future liquefaction triggering curves. ?? 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.

  14. Accurate prediction of hot spot residues through physicochemical characteristics of amino acid sequences

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Peng; Li, Jinyan; Limsoon, Wong; Kuwahara, Hiroyuki; Huang, Jianhua Z.; Gao, Xin

    2013-01-01

    Hot spot residues of proteins are fundamental interface residues that help proteins perform their functions. Detecting hot spots by experimental methods is costly and time-consuming. Sequential and structural information has been widely used in the computational prediction of hot spots. However, structural information is not always available. In this article, we investigated the problem of identifying hot spots using only physicochemical characteristics extracted from amino acid sequences. We first extracted 132 relatively independent physicochemical features from a set of the 544 properties in AAindex1, an amino acid index database. Each feature was utilized to train a classification model with a novel encoding schema for hot spot prediction by the IBk algorithm, an extension of the K-nearest neighbor algorithm. The combinations of the individual classifiers were explored and the classifiers that appeared frequently in the top performing combinations were selected. The hot spot predictor was built based on an ensemble of these classifiers and to work in a voting manner. Experimental results demonstrated that our method effectively exploited the feature space and allowed flexible weights of features for different queries. On the commonly used hot spot benchmark sets, our method significantly outperformed other machine learning algorithms and state-of-the-art hot spot predictors. The program is available at http://sfb.kaust.edu.sa/pages/software.aspx. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Accurate prediction of hot spot residues through physicochemical characteristics of amino acid sequences

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Peng

    2013-07-23

    Hot spot residues of proteins are fundamental interface residues that help proteins perform their functions. Detecting hot spots by experimental methods is costly and time-consuming. Sequential and structural information has been widely used in the computational prediction of hot spots. However, structural information is not always available. In this article, we investigated the problem of identifying hot spots using only physicochemical characteristics extracted from amino acid sequences. We first extracted 132 relatively independent physicochemical features from a set of the 544 properties in AAindex1, an amino acid index database. Each feature was utilized to train a classification model with a novel encoding schema for hot spot prediction by the IBk algorithm, an extension of the K-nearest neighbor algorithm. The combinations of the individual classifiers were explored and the classifiers that appeared frequently in the top performing combinations were selected. The hot spot predictor was built based on an ensemble of these classifiers and to work in a voting manner. Experimental results demonstrated that our method effectively exploited the feature space and allowed flexible weights of features for different queries. On the commonly used hot spot benchmark sets, our method significantly outperformed other machine learning algorithms and state-of-the-art hot spot predictors. The program is available at http://sfb.kaust.edu.sa/pages/software.aspx. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Accurate prediction of hot spot residues through physicochemical characteristics of amino acid sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Peng; Li, Jinyan; Wong, Limsoon; Kuwahara, Hiroyuki; Huang, Jianhua Z; Gao, Xin

    2013-08-01

    Hot spot residues of proteins are fundamental interface residues that help proteins perform their functions. Detecting hot spots by experimental methods is costly and time-consuming. Sequential and structural information has been widely used in the computational prediction of hot spots. However, structural information is not always available. In this article, we investigated the problem of identifying hot spots using only physicochemical characteristics extracted from amino acid sequences. We first extracted 132 relatively independent physicochemical features from a set of the 544 properties in AAindex1, an amino acid index database. Each feature was utilized to train a classification model with a novel encoding schema for hot spot prediction by the IBk algorithm, an extension of the K-nearest neighbor algorithm. The combinations of the individual classifiers were explored and the classifiers that appeared frequently in the top performing combinations were selected. The hot spot predictor was built based on an ensemble of these classifiers and to work in a voting manner. Experimental results demonstrated that our method effectively exploited the feature space and allowed flexible weights of features for different queries. On the commonly used hot spot benchmark sets, our method significantly outperformed other machine learning algorithms and state-of-the-art hot spot predictors. The program is available at http://sfb.kaust.edu.sa/pages/software.aspx. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. A Comprehensive Comparison of the Analytical and Numerical Prediction of the Thermal History and Solidification Microstructure of Inconel 718 Products Made by Laser Powder-Bed Fusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patcharapit Promoppatum

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The finite-element (FE model and the Rosenthal equation are used to study the thermal and microstructural phenomena in the laser powder-bed fusion of Inconel 718. A primary aim is to comprehend the advantages and disadvantages of the Rosenthal equation (which provides an analytical alternative to FE analysis, and to investigate the influence of underlying assumptions on estimated results. Various physical characteristics are compared among the FE model, Rosenthal equation, and experiments. The predicted melt pool shapes compared with reported experimental results from the literature show that both the FE model and the analytical (Rosenthal equation provide a reasonably accurate estimation. At high heat input, under conditions leading to keyholing, the reported melt width is narrower than predicted by the analytical equation. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis based on choices of the absorptivity is performed, which shows that the Rosenthal approach is more sensitive to absorptivity, compared with the FE approach. The primary reason could be the effect of radiative and convective losses, which are assumed to be negligible in the Rosenthal equation. In addition, both methods predict a columnar solidification microstructure, which agrees well with experimental reports, and the primary dendrite arm spacing (PDAS predicted with the two approaches is comparable with measurements.

  18. Eco-genetic modeling of contemporary life-history evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunlop, Erin S; Heino, Mikko; Dieckmann, Ulf

    2009-10-01

    We present eco-genetic modeling as a flexible tool for exploring the course and rates of multi-trait life-history evolution in natural populations. We build on existing modeling approaches by combining features that facilitate studying the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of realistically structured populations. In particular, the joint consideration of age and size structure enables the analysis of phenotypically plastic populations with more than a single growth trajectory, and ecological feedback is readily included in the form of density dependence and frequency dependence. Stochasticity and life-history trade-offs can also be implemented. Critically, eco-genetic models permit the incorporation of salient genetic detail such as a population's genetic variances and covariances and the corresponding heritabilities, as well as the probabilistic inheritance and phenotypic expression of quantitative traits. These inclusions are crucial for predicting rates of evolutionary change on both contemporary and longer timescales. An eco-genetic model can be tightly coupled with empirical data and therefore may have considerable practical relevance, in terms of generating testable predictions and evaluating alternative management measures. To illustrate the utility of these models, we present as an example an eco-genetic model used to study harvest-induced evolution of multiple traits in Atlantic cod. The predictions of our model (most notably that harvesting induces a genetic reduction in age and size at maturation, an increase or decrease in growth capacity depending on the minimum-length limit, and an increase in reproductive investment) are corroborated by patterns observed in wild populations. The predicted genetic changes occur together with plastic changes that could phenotypically mask the former. Importantly, our analysis predicts that evolutionary changes show little signs of reversal following a harvest moratorium. This illustrates how predictions offered by

  19. Validity of resting energy expenditure predictive equations before and after an energy-restricted diet intervention in obese women.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonatan R Ruiz

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We investigated the validity of REE predictive equations before and after 12-week energy-restricted diet intervention in Spanish obese (30 kg/m(2>BMI<40 kg/m(2 women. METHODS: We measured REE (indirect calorimetry, body weight, height, and fat mass (FM and fat free mass (FFM, dual X-ray absorptiometry in 86 obese Caucasian premenopausal women aged 36.7±7.2 y, before and after (n = 78 women the intervention. We investigated the accuracy of ten REE predictive equations using weight, height, age, FFM and FM. RESULTS: At baseline, the most accurate equation was the Mifflin et al. (Am J Clin Nutr 1990; 51: 241-247 when using weight (bias:-0.2%, P = 0.982, 74% of accurate predictions. This level of accuracy was not reached after the diet intervention (24% accurate prediction. After the intervention, the lowest bias was found with the Owen et al. (Am J Clin Nutr 1986; 44: 1-19 equation when using weight (bias:-1.7%, P = 0.044, 81% accurate prediction, yet it provided 53% accurate predictions at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: There is a wide variation in the accuracy of REE predictive equations before and after weight loss in non-morbid obese women. The results acquire especial relevance in the context of the challenging weight regain phenomenon for the overweight/obese population.

  20. Beating Heart Motion Accurate Prediction Method Based on Interactive Multiple Model: An Information Fusion Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Weihong; Yu, Yang

    2017-01-01

    Robot-assisted motion compensated beating heart surgery has the advantage over the conventional Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG) in terms of reduced trauma to the surrounding structures that leads to shortened recovery time. The severe nonlinear and diverse nature of irregular heart rhythm causes enormous difficulty for the robot to realize the clinic requirements, especially under arrhythmias. In this paper, we propose a fusion prediction framework based on Interactive Multiple Model (IMM) estimator, allowing each model to cover a distinguishing feature of the heart motion in underlying dynamics. We find that, at normal state, the nonlinearity of the heart motion with slow time-variant changing dominates the beating process. When an arrhythmia occurs, the irregularity mode, the fast uncertainties with random patterns become the leading factor of the heart motion. We deal with prediction problem in the case of arrhythmias by estimating the state with two behavior modes which can adaptively “switch” from one to the other. Also, we employed the signal quality index to adaptively determine the switch transition probability in the framework of IMM. We conduct comparative experiments to evaluate the proposed approach with four distinguished datasets. The test results indicate that the new proposed approach reduces prediction errors significantly. PMID:29124062