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Sample records for histories accurately predict

  1. Predicting Falls in People with Multiple Sclerosis: Fall History Is as Accurate as More Complex Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle H. Cameron

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Many people with MS fall, but the best method for identifying those at increased fall risk is not known. Objective. To compare how accurately fall history, questionnaires, and physical tests predict future falls and injurious falls in people with MS. Methods. 52 people with MS were asked if they had fallen in the past 2 months and the past year. Subjects were also assessed with the Activities-specific Balance Confidence, Falls Efficacy Scale-International, and Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale-12 questionnaires, the Expanded Disability Status Scale, Timed 25-Foot Walk, and computerized dynamic posturography and recorded their falls daily for the following 6 months with calendars. The ability of baseline assessments to predict future falls was compared using receiver operator curves and logistic regression. Results. All tests individually provided similar fall prediction (area under the curve (AUC 0.60–0.75. A fall in the past year was the best predictor of falls (AUC 0.75, sensitivity 0.89, specificity 0.56 or injurious falls (AUC 0.69, sensitivity 0.96, specificity 0.41 in the following 6 months. Conclusion. Simply asking people with MS if they have fallen in the past year predicts future falls and injurious falls as well as more complex, expensive, or time-consuming approaches.

  2. Highly Accurate Prediction of Jobs Runtime Classes

    OpenAIRE

    Reiner-Benaim, Anat; Grabarnick, Anna; Shmueli, Edi

    2016-01-01

    Separating the short jobs from the long is a known technique to improve scheduling performance. In this paper we describe a method we developed for accurately predicting the runtimes classes of the jobs to enable this separation. Our method uses the fact that the runtimes can be represented as a mixture of overlapping Gaussian distributions, in order to train a CART classifier to provide the prediction. The threshold that separates the short jobs from the long jobs is determined during the ev...

  3. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A; Tamir, Diana I

    2017-06-06

    Successful social interactions depend on people's ability to predict others' future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others' current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others' future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others' emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others' future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1-3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants' ratings of emotion transitions predicted others' experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation-valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind-inform participants' mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants' accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone.

  4. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A.; Tamir, Diana I.

    2017-01-01

    Successful social interactions depend on people’s ability to predict others’ future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others’ current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others’ future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others’ emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others’ future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1–3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants’ ratings of emotion transitions predicted others’ experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation—valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind—inform participants’ mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants’ accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone. PMID:28533373

  5. Accurate predictions for the LHC made easy

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    The data recorded by the LHC experiments is of a very high quality. To get the most out of the data, precise theory predictions, including uncertainty estimates, are needed to reduce as much as possible theoretical bias in the experimental analyses. Recently, significant progress has been made in computing Next-to-Leading Order (NLO) computations, including matching to the parton shower, that allow for these accurate, hadron-level predictions. I shall discuss one of these efforts, the MadGraph5_aMC@NLO program, that aims at the complete automation of predictions at the NLO accuracy within the SM as well as New Physics theories. I’ll illustrate some of the theoretical ideas behind this program, show some selected applications to LHC physics, as well as describe the future plans.

  6. Hounsfield unit density accurately predicts ESWL success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, William J; Tomera, Kevin M; Lance, Raymond S

    2005-01-01

    Extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (ESWL) is a commonly used non-invasive treatment for urolithiasis. Helical CT scans provide much better and detailed imaging of the patient with urolithiasis including the ability to measure density of urinary stones. In this study we tested the hypothesis that density of urinary calculi as measured by CT can predict successful ESWL treatment. 198 patients were treated at Alaska Urological Associates with ESWL between January 2002 and April 2004. Of these 101 met study inclusion with accessible CT scans and stones ranging from 5-15 mm. Follow-up imaging demonstrated stone freedom in 74.2%. The overall mean Houndsfield density value for stone-free compared to residual stone groups were significantly different ( 93.61 vs 122.80 p ESWL for upper tract calculi between 5-15mm.

  7. A new, accurate predictive model for incident hypertension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Völzke, Henry; Fung, Glenn; Ittermann, Till

    2013-01-01

    Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures.......Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures....

  8. Accurate reconstruction of insertion-deletion histories by statistical phylogenetics.

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    Oscar Westesson

    Full Text Available The Multiple Sequence Alignment (MSA is a computational abstraction that represents a partial summary either of indel history, or of structural similarity. Taking the former view (indel history, it is possible to use formal automata theory to generalize the phylogenetic likelihood framework for finite substitution models (Dayhoff's probability matrices and Felsenstein's pruning algorithm to arbitrary-length sequences. In this paper, we report results of a simulation-based benchmark of several methods for reconstruction of indel history. The methods tested include a relatively new algorithm for statistical marginalization of MSAs that sums over a stochastically-sampled ensemble of the most probable evolutionary histories. For mammalian evolutionary parameters on several different trees, the single most likely history sampled by our algorithm appears less biased than histories reconstructed by other MSA methods. The algorithm can also be used for alignment-free inference, where the MSA is explicitly summed out of the analysis. As an illustration of our method, we discuss reconstruction of the evolutionary histories of human protein-coding genes.

  9. Accurate Multisteps Traffic Flow Prediction Based on SVM

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    Zhang Mingheng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate traffic flow prediction is prerequisite and important for realizing intelligent traffic control and guidance, and it is also the objective requirement for intelligent traffic management. Due to the strong nonlinear, stochastic, time-varying characteristics of urban transport system, artificial intelligence methods such as support vector machine (SVM are now receiving more and more attentions in this research field. Compared with the traditional single-step prediction method, the multisteps prediction has the ability that can predict the traffic state trends over a certain period in the future. From the perspective of dynamic decision, it is far important than the current traffic condition obtained. Thus, in this paper, an accurate multi-steps traffic flow prediction model based on SVM was proposed. In which, the input vectors were comprised of actual traffic volume and four different types of input vectors were compared to verify their prediction performance with each other. Finally, the model was verified with actual data in the empirical analysis phase and the test results showed that the proposed SVM model had a good ability for traffic flow prediction and the SVM-HPT model outperformed the other three models for prediction.

  10. Bayesian calibration of power plant models for accurate performance prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boksteen, Sowande Z.; Buijtenen, Jos P. van; Pecnik, Rene; Vecht, Dick van der

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Bayesian calibration is applied to power plant performance prediction. • Measurements from a plant in operation are used for model calibration. • A gas turbine performance model and steam cycle model are calibrated. • An integrated plant model is derived. • Part load efficiency is accurately predicted as a function of ambient conditions. - Abstract: Gas turbine combined cycles are expected to play an increasingly important role in the balancing of supply and demand in future energy markets. Thermodynamic modeling of these energy systems is frequently applied to assist in decision making processes related to the management of plant operation and maintenance. In most cases, model inputs, parameters and outputs are treated as deterministic quantities and plant operators make decisions with limited or no regard of uncertainties. As the steady integration of wind and solar energy into the energy market induces extra uncertainties, part load operation and reliability are becoming increasingly important. In the current study, methods are proposed to not only quantify various types of uncertainties in measurements and plant model parameters using measured data, but to also assess their effect on various aspects of performance prediction. The authors aim to account for model parameter and measurement uncertainty, and for systematic discrepancy of models with respect to reality. For this purpose, the Bayesian calibration framework of Kennedy and O’Hagan is used, which is especially suitable for high-dimensional industrial problems. The article derives a calibrated model of the plant efficiency as a function of ambient conditions and operational parameters, which is also accurate in part load. The article shows that complete statistical modeling of power plants not only enhances process models, but can also increases confidence in operational decisions

  11. A new, accurate predictive model for incident hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Völzke, Henry; Fung, Glenn; Ittermann, Till; Yu, Shipeng; Baumeister, Sebastian E; Dörr, Marcus; Lieb, Wolfgang; Völker, Uwe; Linneberg, Allan; Jørgensen, Torben; Felix, Stephan B; Rettig, Rainer; Rao, Bharat; Kroemer, Heyo K

    2013-11-01

    Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures. The primary study population consisted of 1605 normotensive individuals aged 20-79 years with 5-year follow-up from the population-based study, that is the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP). The initial set was randomly split into a training and a testing set. We used a probabilistic graphical model applying a Bayesian network to create a predictive model for incident hypertension and compared the predictive performance with the established Framingham risk score for hypertension. Finally, the model was validated in 2887 participants from INTER99, a Danish community-based intervention study. In the training set of SHIP data, the Bayesian network used a small subset of relevant baseline features including age, mean arterial pressure, rs16998073, serum glucose and urinary albumin concentrations. Furthermore, we detected relevant interactions between age and serum glucose as well as between rs16998073 and urinary albumin concentrations [area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC 0.76)]. The model was confirmed in the SHIP validation set (AUC 0.78) and externally replicated in INTER99 (AUC 0.77). Compared to the established Framingham risk score for hypertension, the predictive performance of the new model was similar in the SHIP validation set and moderately better in INTER99. Data mining procedures identified a predictive model for incident hypertension, which included innovative and easy-to-measure variables. The findings promise great applicability in screening settings and clinical practice.

  12. Accurate prediction of the enthalpies of formation for xanthophylls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lii, Jenn-Huei; Liao, Fu-Xing; Hu, Ching-Han

    2011-11-30

    This study investigates the applications of computational approaches in the prediction of enthalpies of formation (ΔH(f)) for C-, H-, and O-containing compounds. Molecular mechanics (MM4) molecular mechanics method, density functional theory (DFT) combined with the atomic equivalent (AE) and group equivalent (GE) schemes, and DFT-based correlation corrected atomization (CCAZ) were used. We emphasized on the application to xanthophylls, C-, H-, and O-containing carotenoids which consist of ∼ 100 atoms and extended π-delocaization systems. Within the training set, MM4 predictions are more accurate than those obtained using AE and GE; however a systematic underestimation was observed in the extended systems. ΔH(f) for the training set molecules predicted by CCAZ combined with DFT are in very good agreement with the G3 results. The average absolute deviations (AADs) of CCAZ combined with B3LYP and MPWB1K are 0.38 and 0.53 kcal/mol compared with the G3 data, and are 0.74 and 0.69 kcal/mol compared with the available experimental data, respectively. Consistency of the CCAZ approach for the selected xanthophylls is revealed by the AAD of 2.68 kcal/mol between B3LYP-CCAZ and MPWB1K-CCAZ. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Accurate Holdup Calculations with Predictive Modeling & Data Integration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Azmy, Yousry [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering; Cacuci, Dan [Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2017-04-03

    In facilities that process special nuclear material (SNM) it is important to account accurately for the fissile material that enters and leaves the plant. Although there are many stages and processes through which materials must be traced and measured, the focus of this project is material that is “held-up” in equipment, pipes, and ducts during normal operation and that can accumulate over time into significant quantities. Accurately estimating the holdup is essential for proper SNM accounting (vis-à-vis nuclear non-proliferation), criticality and radiation safety, waste management, and efficient plant operation. Usually it is not possible to directly measure the holdup quantity and location, so these must be inferred from measured radiation fields, primarily gamma and less frequently neutrons. Current methods to quantify holdup, i.e. Generalized Geometry Holdup (GGH), primarily rely on simple source configurations and crude radiation transport models aided by ad hoc correction factors. This project seeks an alternate method of performing measurement-based holdup calculations using a predictive model that employs state-of-the-art radiation transport codes capable of accurately simulating such situations. Inverse and data assimilation methods use the forward transport model to search for a source configuration that best matches the measured data and simultaneously provide an estimate of the level of confidence in the correctness of such configuration. In this work the holdup problem is re-interpreted as an inverse problem that is under-determined, hence may permit multiple solutions. A probabilistic approach is applied to solving the resulting inverse problem. This approach rates possible solutions according to their plausibility given the measurements and initial information. This is accomplished through the use of Bayes’ Theorem that resolves the issue of multiple solutions by giving an estimate of the probability of observing each possible solution. To use

  14. Simple Mathematical Models Do Not Accurately Predict Early SIV Dynamics

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    Cecilia Noecker

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Upon infection of a new host, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV replicates in the mucosal tissues and is generally undetectable in circulation for 1–2 weeks post-infection. Several interventions against HIV including vaccines and antiretroviral prophylaxis target virus replication at this earliest stage of infection. Mathematical models have been used to understand how HIV spreads from mucosal tissues systemically and what impact vaccination and/or antiretroviral prophylaxis has on viral eradication. Because predictions of such models have been rarely compared to experimental data, it remains unclear which processes included in these models are critical for predicting early HIV dynamics. Here we modified the “standard” mathematical model of HIV infection to include two populations of infected cells: cells that are actively producing the virus and cells that are transitioning into virus production mode. We evaluated the effects of several poorly known parameters on infection outcomes in this model and compared model predictions to experimental data on infection of non-human primates with variable doses of simian immunodifficiency virus (SIV. First, we found that the mode of virus production by infected cells (budding vs. bursting has a minimal impact on the early virus dynamics for a wide range of model parameters, as long as the parameters are constrained to provide the observed rate of SIV load increase in the blood of infected animals. Interestingly and in contrast with previous results, we found that the bursting mode of virus production generally results in a higher probability of viral extinction than the budding mode of virus production. Second, this mathematical model was not able to accurately describe the change in experimentally determined probability of host infection with increasing viral doses. Third and finally, the model was also unable to accurately explain the decline in the time to virus detection with increasing viral

  15. ACCURATE UNIVERSAL MODELS FOR THE MASS ACCRETION HISTORIES AND CONCENTRATIONS OF DARK MATTER HALOS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, D. H.; Jing, Y. P.; Mo, H. J.; Boerner, G.

    2009-01-01

    A large amount of observations have constrained cosmological parameters and the initial density fluctuation spectrum to a very high accuracy. However, cosmological parameters change with time and the power index of the power spectrum dramatically varies with mass scale in the so-called concordance ΛCDM cosmology. Thus, any successful model for its structural evolution should work well simultaneously for various cosmological models and different power spectra. We use a large set of high-resolution N-body simulations of a variety of structure formation models (scale-free, standard CDM, open CDM, and ΛCDM) to study the mass accretion histories, the mass and redshift dependence of concentrations, and the concentration evolution histories of dark matter halos. We find that there is significant disagreement between the much-used empirical models in the literature and our simulations. Based on our simulation results, we find that the mass accretion rate of a halo is tightly correlated with a simple function of its mass, the redshift, parameters of the cosmology, and of the initial density fluctuation spectrum, which correctly disentangles the effects of all these factors and halo environments. We also find that the concentration of a halo is strongly correlated with the universe age when its progenitor on the mass accretion history first reaches 4% of its current mass. According to these correlations, we develop new empirical models for both the mass accretion histories and the concentration evolution histories of dark matter halos, and the latter can also be used to predict the mass and redshift dependence of halo concentrations. These models are accurate and universal: the same set of model parameters works well for different cosmological models and for halos of different masses at different redshifts, and in the ΛCDM case the model predictions match the simulation results very well even though halo mass is traced to about 0.0005 times the final mass, when

  16. Learning Language Levels in Students Accurate with a History Academic Achievement History

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    Noorlela Binti Noordin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This study was aimed to evaluate the Malay proficiency among students in Form Two especially non-Malay students and its relationship to academic achievement History. To achieve the purpose of the study there are two objectives, the first is to look at the difference between mean of Malay Language test influences min of academic achievement of History subject among non-Malay students in Form Two and the second is the relationship between the level of Malay proficiency and their academic achievement for History. This study used quantitative methods, which involved 100 people of Form Two non-Malay students in one of the schools in Klang, Selangor. This study used quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and statistical inference with IBM SPSS Statistics v22 software. This study found that there was a relationship between the proficiency of Malay language among non-Malay students with achievements in the subject of History. The implications of this study are discussed in this article.

  17. An Overview of Practical Applications of Protein Disorder Prediction and Drive for Faster, More Accurate Predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Xin; Gumm, Jordan; Karki, Suman; Eickholt, Jesse; Cheng, Jianlin

    2015-07-07

    Protein disordered regions are segments of a protein chain that do not adopt a stable structure. Thus far, a variety of protein disorder prediction methods have been developed and have been widely used, not only in traditional bioinformatics domains, including protein structure prediction, protein structure determination and function annotation, but also in many other biomedical fields. The relationship between intrinsically-disordered proteins and some human diseases has played a significant role in disorder prediction in disease identification and epidemiological investigations. Disordered proteins can also serve as potential targets for drug discovery with an emphasis on the disordered-to-ordered transition in the disordered binding regions, and this has led to substantial research in drug discovery or design based on protein disordered region prediction. Furthermore, protein disorder prediction has also been applied to healthcare by predicting the disease risk of mutations in patients and studying the mechanistic basis of diseases. As the applications of disorder prediction increase, so too does the need to make quick and accurate predictions. To fill this need, we also present a new approach to predict protein residue disorder using wide sequence windows that is applicable on the genomic scale.

  18. An Overview of Practical Applications of Protein Disorder Prediction and Drive for Faster, More Accurate Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Deng

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Protein disordered regions are segments of a protein chain that do not adopt a stable structure. Thus far, a variety of protein disorder prediction methods have been developed and have been widely used, not only in traditional bioinformatics domains, including protein structure prediction, protein structure determination and function annotation, but also in many other biomedical fields. The relationship between intrinsically-disordered proteins and some human diseases has played a significant role in disorder prediction in disease identification and epidemiological investigations. Disordered proteins can also serve as potential targets for drug discovery with an emphasis on the disordered-to-ordered transition in the disordered binding regions, and this has led to substantial research in drug discovery or design based on protein disordered region prediction. Furthermore, protein disorder prediction has also been applied to healthcare by predicting the disease risk of mutations in patients and studying the mechanistic basis of diseases. As the applications of disorder prediction increase, so too does the need to make quick and accurate predictions. To fill this need, we also present a new approach to predict protein residue disorder using wide sequence windows that is applicable on the genomic scale.

  19. Feedforward signal prediction for accurate motion systems using digital filters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Butler, H.

    2012-01-01

    A positioning system that needs to accurately track a reference can benefit greatly from using feedforward. When using a force actuator, the feedforward needs to generate a force proportional to the reference acceleration, which can be measured by means of an accelerometer or can be created by

  20. Applying conversation analysis to foster accurate reporting in the diet history interview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapsell, L C; Brenninger, V; Barnard, J

    2000-07-01

    Inaccuracy in reporting dietary intakes is a major problem in managing diet-related disease. There is no single best method of dietary assessment, but the diet history lends itself well to the clinical setting. In many diet histories data are collected orally, so analysis of interviews can provide insights into reporting behaviors. Conversation analysis is a qualitative method that describes the systematic organization of talk between people. Patterns are identified and checked for consistency within and among individual interviews. The aim of this study was to describe consistent ways of reporting diet histories and to identify conversational features of problematic reporting. Diet history interviews from 62 overweight and insulin-resistant adult volunteers (50 women, 12 men) attending an outpatient clinic and 14 healthy volunteers (7 men, 7 women) participating in an energy balance study were audiotaped and transcribed. Conversation analysis identified a remarkably consistent pattern of reporting diet histories and 3 conversational features that indicated problematic reporting: "it depends," denoting variability (least of all at breakfast); "probably," suggesting guesswork (related to portion sizes); and elaborated talk on certain foods, distinguishing sensitive topics (e.g., alcohol, chocolate, butter/margarine, take-out foods) from safe topics. These findings indicate that there are ways in which dietetics practitioners may conduct the diet history interview to foster more accurate reporting.

  1. Producing accurate wave propagation time histories using the global matrix method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obenchain, Matthew B; Cesnik, Carlos E S

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a reliable method for producing accurate displacement time histories for wave propagation in laminated plates using the global matrix method. The existence of inward and outward propagating waves in the general solution is highlighted while examining the axisymmetric case of a circular actuator on an aluminum plate. Problems with previous attempts to isolate the outward wave for anisotropic laminates are shown. The updated method develops a correction signal that can be added to the original time history solution to cancel the inward wave and leave only the outward propagating wave. The paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the new method for circular and square actuators bonded to the surface of isotropic laminates, and these results are compared with exact solutions. Results for circular actuators on cross-ply laminates are also presented and compared with experimental results, showing the ability of the new method to successfully capture the displacement time histories for composite laminates. (paper)

  2. Accurate Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Using Bioinformatics Algorithms

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    Hajar Shafiee

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Cardiovascular disease is one of the main causes of death in developed and Third World countries. According to the statement of the World Health Organization, it is predicted that death due to heart disease will rise to 23 million by 2030. According to the latest statistics reported by Iran’s Minister of health, 3.39% of all deaths are attributed to cardiovascular diseases and 19.5% are related to myocardial infarction. The aim of this study was to predict coronary artery disease using data mining algorithms. Methods: In this study, various bioinformatics algorithms, such as decision trees, neural networks, support vector machines, clustering, etc., were used to predict coronary heart disease. The data used in this study was taken from several valid databases (including 14 data. Results: In this research, data mining techniques can be effectively used to diagnose different diseases, including coronary artery disease. Also, for the first time, a prediction system based on support vector machine with the best possible accuracy was introduced. Conclusion: The results showed that among the features, thallium scan variable is the most important feature in the diagnosis of heart disease. Designation of machine prediction models, such as support vector machine learning algorithm can differentiate between sick and healthy individuals with 100% accuracy.

  3. Towards more accurate and reliable predictions for nuclear applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goriely, S.

    2015-01-01

    The need for nuclear data far from the valley of stability, for applications such as nuclear astrophysics or future nuclear facilities, challenges the robustness as well as the predictive power of present nuclear models. Most of the nuclear data evaluation and prediction are still performed on the basis of phenomenological nuclear models. For the last decades, important progress has been achieved in fundamental nuclear physics, making it now feasible to use more reliable, but also more complex microscopic or semi-microscopic models in the evaluation and prediction of nuclear data for practical applications. In the present contribution, the reliability and accuracy of recent nuclear theories are discussed for most of the relevant quantities needed to estimate reaction cross sections and beta-decay rates, namely nuclear masses, nuclear level densities, gamma-ray strength, fission properties and beta-strength functions. It is shown that nowadays, mean-field models can be tuned at the same level of accuracy as the phenomenological models, renormalized on experimental data if needed, and therefore can replace the phenomenogical inputs in the prediction of nuclear data. While fundamental nuclear physicists keep on improving state-of-the-art models, e.g. within the shell model or ab initio models, nuclear applications could make use of their most recent results as quantitative constraints or guides to improve the predictions in energy or mass domain that will remain inaccessible experimentally. (orig.)

  4. Predicting life-history adaptations to pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maltby, L. [Univ. of Sheffield (United Kingdom). Dept. of Animal and Plant Sciences

    1995-12-31

    Animals may adapt to pollutant stress so that individuals from polluted environments are less susceptible than those from unpolluted environments. In addition to such direct adaptations, animals may respond to pollutant stress by life-history modifications; so-called indirect adaptations. This paper will demonstrate how, by combining life-history theory and toxicological data, it is possible to predict stress-induced alterations in reproductive output and offspring size. Pollutant-induced alterations in age-specific survival in favor of adults and reductions in juvenile growth, conditions are predicted to select for reduced investment in reproduction and the allocation of this investment into fewer, larger offspring. Field observations on the freshwater crustaceans, Asellus aquaticus and Gammarus pulex, support these predictions. Females from metal-polluted sites had lower investment in reproduction and produced larger offspring than females of the same species from unpolluted sites. Moreover, interpopulation differences in reproductive biology persisted in laboratory cultures indicating that they had a genetic basis and were therefore due to adaptation rather than acclimation. The general applicability of this approach will be considered.

  5. PredictSNP: robust and accurate consensus classifier for prediction of disease-related mutations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Bendl

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Single nucleotide variants represent a prevalent form of genetic variation. Mutations in the coding regions are frequently associated with the development of various genetic diseases. Computational tools for the prediction of the effects of mutations on protein function are very important for analysis of single nucleotide variants and their prioritization for experimental characterization. Many computational tools are already widely employed for this purpose. Unfortunately, their comparison and further improvement is hindered by large overlaps between the training datasets and benchmark datasets, which lead to biased and overly optimistic reported performances. In this study, we have constructed three independent datasets by removing all duplicities, inconsistencies and mutations previously used in the training of evaluated tools. The benchmark dataset containing over 43,000 mutations was employed for the unbiased evaluation of eight established prediction tools: MAPP, nsSNPAnalyzer, PANTHER, PhD-SNP, PolyPhen-1, PolyPhen-2, SIFT and SNAP. The six best performing tools were combined into a consensus classifier PredictSNP, resulting into significantly improved prediction performance, and at the same time returned results for all mutations, confirming that consensus prediction represents an accurate and robust alternative to the predictions delivered by individual tools. A user-friendly web interface enables easy access to all eight prediction tools, the consensus classifier PredictSNP and annotations from the Protein Mutant Database and the UniProt database. The web server and the datasets are freely available to the academic community at http://loschmidt.chemi.muni.cz/predictsnp.

  6. Can numerical simulations accurately predict hydrodynamic instabilities in liquid films?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denner, Fabian; Charogiannis, Alexandros; Pradas, Marc; van Wachem, Berend G. M.; Markides, Christos N.; Kalliadasis, Serafim

    2014-11-01

    Understanding the dynamics of hydrodynamic instabilities in liquid film flows is an active field of research in fluid dynamics and non-linear science in general. Numerical simulations offer a powerful tool to study hydrodynamic instabilities in film flows and can provide deep insights into the underlying physical phenomena. However, the direct comparison of numerical results and experimental results is often hampered by several reasons. For instance, in numerical simulations the interface representation is problematic and the governing equations and boundary conditions may be oversimplified, whereas in experiments it is often difficult to extract accurate information on the fluid and its behavior, e.g. determine the fluid properties when the liquid contains particles for PIV measurements. In this contribution we present the latest results of our on-going, extensive study on hydrodynamic instabilities in liquid film flows, which includes direct numerical simulations, low-dimensional modelling as well as experiments. The major focus is on wave regimes, wave height and wave celerity as a function of Reynolds number and forcing frequency of a falling liquid film. Specific attention is paid to the differences in numerical and experimental results and the reasons for these differences. The authors are grateful to the EPSRC for their financial support (Grant EP/K008595/1).

  7. Predicting accurate absolute binding energies in aqueous solution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jan Halborg

    2015-01-01

    Recent predictions of absolute binding free energies of host-guest complexes in aqueous solution using electronic structure theory have been encouraging for some systems, while other systems remain problematic. In this paper I summarize some of the many factors that could easily contribute 1-3 kcal......-represented by continuum models. While I focus on binding free energies in aqueous solution the approach also applies (with minor adjustments) to any free energy difference such as conformational or reaction free energy differences or activation free energies in any solvent....

  8. CFD-FEM coupling for accurate prediction of thermal fatigue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hannink, M.H.C.; Kuczaj, A.K.; Blom, F.J.; Church, J.M.; Komen, E.M.J.

    2009-01-01

    Thermal fatigue is a safety related issue in primary pipework systems of nuclear power plants. Life extension of current reactors and the design of a next generation of new reactors lead to growing importance of research in this direction. The thermal fatigue degradation mechanism is induced by temperature fluctuations in a fluid, which arise from mixing of hot and cold flows. Accompanied physical phenomena include thermal stratification, thermal striping, and turbulence [1]. Current plant instrumentation systems allow monitoring of possible causes as stratification and temperature gradients at fatigue susceptible locations [1]. However, high-cycle temperature fluctuations associated with turbulent mixing cannot be adequately detected by common thermocouple instrumentations. For a proper evaluation of thermal fatigue, therefore, numerical simulations are necessary that couple instantaneous fluid and solid interactions. In this work, a strategy for the numerical prediction of thermal fatigue is presented. The approach couples Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and the Finite Element Method (FEM). For the development of the computational approach, a classical test case for the investigation of thermal fatigue problems is studied, i.e. mixing in a T-junction. Due to turbulent mixing of hot and cold fluids in two perpendicularly connected pipes, temperature fluctuations arise in the mixing zone downstream in the flow. Subsequently, these temperature fluctuations are also induced in the pipes. The stresses that arise due to the fluctuations may eventually lead to thermal fatigue. In the first step of the applied procedure, the temperature fluctuations in both fluid and structure are calculated using the CFD method. Subsequently, the temperature fluctuations in the structure are imposed as thermal loads in a FEM model of the pipes. A mechanical analysis is then performed to determine the thermal stresses, which are used to predict the fatigue lifetime of the structure

  9. Change in BMI accurately predicted by social exposure to acquaintances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oloritun, Rahman O; Ouarda, Taha B M J; Moturu, Sai; Madan, Anmol; Pentland, Alex Sandy; Khayal, Inas

    2013-01-01

    Research has mostly focused on obesity and not on processes of BMI change more generally, although these may be key factors that lead to obesity. Studies have suggested that obesity is affected by social ties. However these studies used survey based data collection techniques that may be biased toward select only close friends and relatives. In this study, mobile phone sensing techniques were used to routinely capture social interaction data in an undergraduate dorm. By automating the capture of social interaction data, the limitations of self-reported social exposure data are avoided. This study attempts to understand and develop a model that best describes the change in BMI using social interaction data. We evaluated a cohort of 42 college students in a co-located university dorm, automatically captured via mobile phones and survey based health-related information. We determined the most predictive variables for change in BMI using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method. The selected variables, with gender, healthy diet category, and ability to manage stress, were used to build multiple linear regression models that estimate the effect of exposure and individual factors on change in BMI. We identified the best model using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and R(2). This study found a model that explains 68% (pchange in BMI. The model combined social interaction data, especially from acquaintances, and personal health-related information to explain change in BMI. This is the first study taking into account both interactions with different levels of social interaction and personal health-related information. Social interactions with acquaintances accounted for more than half the variation in change in BMI. This suggests the importance of not only individual health information but also the significance of social interactions with people we are exposed to, even people we may not consider as close friends.

  10. Change in BMI accurately predicted by social exposure to acquaintances.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahman O Oloritun

    Full Text Available Research has mostly focused on obesity and not on processes of BMI change more generally, although these may be key factors that lead to obesity. Studies have suggested that obesity is affected by social ties. However these studies used survey based data collection techniques that may be biased toward select only close friends and relatives. In this study, mobile phone sensing techniques were used to routinely capture social interaction data in an undergraduate dorm. By automating the capture of social interaction data, the limitations of self-reported social exposure data are avoided. This study attempts to understand and develop a model that best describes the change in BMI using social interaction data. We evaluated a cohort of 42 college students in a co-located university dorm, automatically captured via mobile phones and survey based health-related information. We determined the most predictive variables for change in BMI using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO method. The selected variables, with gender, healthy diet category, and ability to manage stress, were used to build multiple linear regression models that estimate the effect of exposure and individual factors on change in BMI. We identified the best model using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC and R(2. This study found a model that explains 68% (p<0.0001 of the variation in change in BMI. The model combined social interaction data, especially from acquaintances, and personal health-related information to explain change in BMI. This is the first study taking into account both interactions with different levels of social interaction and personal health-related information. Social interactions with acquaintances accounted for more than half the variation in change in BMI. This suggests the importance of not only individual health information but also the significance of social interactions with people we are exposed to, even people we may not consider as

  11. Towards accurate performance prediction of a vertical axis wind turbine operating at different tip speed ratios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rezaeiha, A.; Kalkman, I.; Blocken, B.J.E.

    2017-01-01

    Accurate prediction of the performance of a vertical-axis wind turbine (VAWT) using CFD simulation requires the employment of a sufficiently fine azimuthal increment (dθ) combined with a mesh size at which essential flow characteristics can be accurately resolved. Furthermore, the domain size needs

  12. Prediction of Accurate Mixed Mode Fatigue Crack Growth Curves using the Paris' Law

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajith, S.; Krishna Murthy, K. S. R.; Robi, P. S.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate information regarding crack growth times and structural strength as a function of the crack size is mandatory in damage tolerance analysis. Various equivalent stress intensity factor (SIF) models are available for prediction of mixed mode fatigue life using the Paris' law. In the present investigation these models have been compared to assess their efficacy in prediction of the life close to the experimental findings as there are no guidelines/suggestions available on selection of these models for accurate and/or conservative predictions of fatigue life. Within the limitations of availability of experimental data and currently available numerical simulation techniques, the results of present study attempts to outline models that would provide accurate and conservative life predictions.

  13. Accurate Prediction of Motor Failures by Application of Multi CBM Tools: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutta, Rana; Singh, Veerendra Pratap; Dwivedi, Jai Prakash

    2018-02-01

    Motor failures are very difficult to predict accurately with a single condition-monitoring tool as both electrical and the mechanical systems are closely related. Electrical problem, like phase unbalance, stator winding insulation failures can, at times, lead to vibration problem and at the same time mechanical failures like bearing failure, leads to rotor eccentricity. In this case study of a 550 kW blower motor it has been shown that a rotor bar crack was detected by current signature analysis and vibration monitoring confirmed the same. In later months in a similar motor vibration monitoring predicted bearing failure and current signature analysis confirmed the same. In both the cases, after dismantling the motor, the predictions were found to be accurate. In this paper we will be discussing the accurate predictions of motor failures through use of multi condition monitoring tools with two case studies.

  14. Influential Factors for Accurate Load Prediction in a Demand Response Context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wollsen, Morten Gill; Kjærgaard, Mikkel Baun; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2016-01-01

    Accurate prediction of a buildings electricity load is crucial to respond to Demand Response events with an assessable load change. However, previous work on load prediction lacks to consider a wider set of possible data sources. In this paper we study different data scenarios to map the influence....... Next, the time of day that is being predicted greatly influence the prediction which is related to the weather pattern. By presenting these results we hope to improve the modeling of building loads and algorithms for Demand Response planning.......Accurate prediction of a buildings electricity load is crucial to respond to Demand Response events with an assessable load change. However, previous work on load prediction lacks to consider a wider set of possible data sources. In this paper we study different data scenarios to map the influence...

  15. Heart rate during basketball game play and volleyball drills accurately predicts oxygen uptake and energy expenditure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scribbans, T D; Berg, K; Narazaki, K; Janssen, I; Gurd, B J

    2015-09-01

    There is currently little information regarding the ability of metabolic prediction equations to accurately predict oxygen uptake and exercise intensity from heart rate (HR) during intermittent sport. The purpose of the present study was to develop and, cross-validate equations appropriate for accurately predicting oxygen cost (VO2) and energy expenditure from HR during intermittent sport participation. Eleven healthy adult males (19.9±1.1yrs) were recruited to establish the relationship between %VO2peak and %HRmax during low-intensity steady state endurance (END), moderate-intensity interval (MOD) and high intensity-interval exercise (HI), as performed on a cycle ergometer. Three equations (END, MOD, and HI) for predicting %VO2peak based on %HRmax were developed. HR and VO2 were directly measured during basketball games (6 male, 20.8±1.0 yrs; 6 female, 20.0±1.3yrs) and volleyball drills (12 female; 20.8±1.0yrs). Comparisons were made between measured and predicted VO2 and energy expenditure using the 3 equations developed and 2 previously published equations. The END and MOD equations accurately predicted VO2 and energy expenditure, while the HI equation underestimated, and the previously published equations systematically overestimated VO2 and energy expenditure. Intermittent sport VO2 and energy expenditure can be accurately predicted from heart rate data using either the END (%VO2peak=%HRmax x 1.008-17.17) or MOD (%VO2peak=%HRmax x 1.2-32) equations. These 2 simple equations provide an accessible and cost-effective method for accurate estimation of exercise intensity and energy expenditure during intermittent sport.

  16. Accurate and dynamic predictive model for better prediction in medicine and healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alanazi, H O; Abdullah, A H; Qureshi, K N; Ismail, A S

    2018-05-01

    Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have changed the trend into new integrated operations and methods in all fields of life. The health sector has also adopted new technologies to improve the systems and provide better services to customers. Predictive models in health care are also influenced from new technologies to predict the different disease outcomes. However, still, existing predictive models have suffered from some limitations in terms of predictive outcomes performance. In order to improve predictive model performance, this paper proposed a predictive model by classifying the disease predictions into different categories. To achieve this model performance, this paper uses traumatic brain injury (TBI) datasets. TBI is one of the serious diseases worldwide and needs more attention due to its seriousness and serious impacts on human life. The proposed predictive model improves the predictive performance of TBI. The TBI data set is developed and approved by neurologists to set its features. The experiment results show that the proposed model has achieved significant results including accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

  17. NNLOPS accurate predictions for $W^+W^-$ production arXiv

    CERN Document Server

    Re, Emanuele; Zanderighi, Giulia

    We present novel predictions for the production of $W^+W^-$ pairs in hadron collisions that are next-to-next-to-leading order accurate and consistently matched to a parton shower (NNLOPS). All diagrams that lead to the process $pp\\to e^- \\bar \

  18. Towards cycle-accurate performance predictions for real-time embedded systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Triantafyllidis, K.; Bondarev, E.; With, de P.H.N.; Arabnia, H.R.; Deligiannidis, L.; Jandieri, G.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we present a model-based performance analysis method for component-based real-time systems, featuring cycle-accurate predictions of latencies and enhanced system robustness. The method incorporates the following phases: (a) instruction-level profiling of SW components, (b) modeling the

  19. Life history theory predicts fish assemblage response to hydrologic regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mims, Meryl C; Olden, Julian D

    2012-01-01

    The hydrologic regime is regarded as the primary driver of freshwater ecosystems, structuring the physical habitat template, providing connectivity, framing biotic interactions, and ultimately selecting for specific life histories of aquatic organisms. In the present study, we tested ecological theory predicting directional relationships between major dimensions of the flow regime and life history composition of fish assemblages in perennial free-flowing rivers throughout the continental United States. Using long-term discharge records and fish trait and survey data for 109 stream locations, we found that 11 out of 18 relationships (61%) tested between the three life history strategies (opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium) and six hydrologic metrics (two each describing flow variability, predictability, and seasonality) were statistically significant (P history strategies, with 82% of all significant relationships observed supporting predictions from life history theory. Specifically, we found that (1) opportunistic strategists were positively related to measures of flow variability and negatively related to predictability and seasonality, (2) periodic strategists were positively related to high flow seasonality and negatively related to variability, and (3) the equilibrium strategists were negatively related to flow variability and positively related to predictability. Our study provides important empirical evidence illustrating the value of using life history theory to understand both the patterns and processes by which fish assemblage structure is shaped by adaptation to natural regimes of variability, predictability, and seasonality of critical flow events over broad biogeographic scales.

  20. ASTRAL, DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict stroke outcome more accurately than physicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntaios, G; Gioulekas, F; Papavasileiou, V; Strbian, D; Michel, P

    2016-11-01

    ASTRAL, SEDAN and DRAGON scores are three well-validated scores for stroke outcome prediction. Whether these scores predict stroke outcome more accurately compared with physicians interested in stroke was investigated. Physicians interested in stroke were invited to an online anonymous survey to provide outcome estimates in randomly allocated structured scenarios of recent real-life stroke patients. Their estimates were compared to scores' predictions in the same scenarios. An estimate was considered accurate if it was within 95% confidence intervals of actual outcome. In all, 244 participants from 32 different countries responded assessing 720 real scenarios and 2636 outcomes. The majority of physicians' estimates were inaccurate (1422/2636, 53.9%). 400 (56.8%) of physicians' estimates about the percentage probability of 3-month modified Rankin score (mRS) > 2 were accurate compared with 609 (86.5%) of ASTRAL score estimates (P DRAGON score estimates (P DRAGON score estimates (P DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict outcome of acute ischaemic stroke patients with higher accuracy compared to physicians interested in stroke. © 2016 EAN.

  1. Accurate wavelength prediction of photonic crystal resonant reflection and applications in refractive index measurement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermannsson, Pétur Gordon; Vannahme, Christoph; Smith, Cameron L. C.

    2014-01-01

    and superstrate materials. The importance of accounting for material dispersion in order to obtain accurate simulation results is highlighted, and a method for doing so using an iterative approach is demonstrated. Furthermore, an application for the model is demonstrated, in which the material dispersion......In the past decade, photonic crystal resonant reflectors have been increasingly used as the basis for label-free biochemical assays in lab-on-a-chip applications. In both designing and interpreting experimental results, an accurate model describing the optical behavior of such structures...... is essential. Here, an analytical method for precisely predicting the absolute positions of resonantly reflected wavelengths is presented. The model is experimentally verified to be highly accurate using nanoreplicated, polymer-based photonic crystal grating reflectors with varying grating periods...

  2. A highly accurate predictive-adaptive method for lithium-ion battery remaining discharge energy prediction in electric vehicle applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Guangming; Ouyang, Minggao; Lu, Languang; Li, Jianqiu; Hua, Jianfeng

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • An energy prediction (EP) method is introduced for battery E RDE determination. • EP determines E RDE through coupled prediction of future states, parameters, and output. • The PAEP combines parameter adaptation and prediction to update model parameters. • The PAEP provides improved E RDE accuracy compared with DC and other EP methods. - Abstract: In order to estimate the remaining driving range (RDR) in electric vehicles, the remaining discharge energy (E RDE ) of the applied battery system needs to be precisely predicted. Strongly affected by the load profiles, the available E RDE varies largely in real-world applications and requires specific determination. However, the commonly-used direct calculation (DC) method might result in certain energy prediction errors by relating the E RDE directly to the current state of charge (SOC). To enhance the E RDE accuracy, this paper presents a battery energy prediction (EP) method based on the predictive control theory, in which a coupled prediction of future battery state variation, battery model parameter change, and voltage response, is implemented on the E RDE prediction horizon, and the E RDE is subsequently accumulated and real-timely optimized. Three EP approaches with different model parameter updating routes are introduced, and the predictive-adaptive energy prediction (PAEP) method combining the real-time parameter identification and the future parameter prediction offers the best potential. Based on a large-format lithium-ion battery, the performance of different E RDE calculation methods is compared under various dynamic profiles. Results imply that the EP methods provide much better accuracy than the traditional DC method, and the PAEP could reduce the E RDE error by more than 90% and guarantee the relative energy prediction error under 2%, proving as a proper choice in online E RDE prediction. The correlation of SOC estimation and E RDE calculation is then discussed to illustrate the

  3. Improving medical decisions for incapacitated persons: does focusing on "accurate predictions" lead to an inaccurate picture?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Scott Y H

    2014-04-01

    The Patient Preference Predictor (PPP) proposal places a high priority on the accuracy of predicting patients' preferences and finds the performance of surrogates inadequate. However, the quest to develop a highly accurate, individualized statistical model has significant obstacles. First, it will be impossible to validate the PPP beyond the limit imposed by 60%-80% reliability of people's preferences for future medical decisions--a figure no better than the known average accuracy of surrogates. Second, evidence supports the view that a sizable minority of persons may not even have preferences to predict. Third, many, perhaps most, people express their autonomy just as much by entrusting their loved ones to exercise their judgment than by desiring to specifically control future decisions. Surrogate decision making faces none of these issues and, in fact, it may be more efficient, accurate, and authoritative than is commonly assumed.

  4. LocARNA-P: Accurate boundary prediction and improved detection of structural RNAs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Will, Sebastian; Joshi, Tejal; Hofacker, Ivo L.

    2012-01-01

    Current genomic screens for noncoding RNAs (ncRNAs) predict a large number of genomic regions containing potential structural ncRNAs. The analysis of these data requires highly accurate prediction of ncRNA boundaries and discrimination of promising candidate ncRNAs from weak predictions. Existing...... methods struggle with these goals because they rely on sequence-based multiple sequence alignments, which regularly misalign RNA structure and therefore do not support identification of structural similarities. To overcome this limitation, we compute columnwise and global reliabilities of alignments based...... on sequence and structure similarity; we refer to these structure-based alignment reliabilities as STARs. The columnwise STARs of alignments, or STAR profiles, provide a versatile tool for the manual and automatic analysis of ncRNAs. In particular, we improve the boundary prediction of the widely used nc...

  5. Multi-fidelity machine learning models for accurate bandgap predictions of solids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pilania, Ghanshyam; Gubernatis, James E.; Lookman, Turab

    2016-01-01

    Here, we present a multi-fidelity co-kriging statistical learning framework that combines variable-fidelity quantum mechanical calculations of bandgaps to generate a machine-learned model that enables low-cost accurate predictions of the bandgaps at the highest fidelity level. Additionally, the adopted Gaussian process regression formulation allows us to predict the underlying uncertainties as a measure of our confidence in the predictions. In using a set of 600 elpasolite compounds as an example dataset and using semi-local and hybrid exchange correlation functionals within density functional theory as two levels of fidelities, we demonstrate the excellent learning performance of the method against actual high fidelity quantum mechanical calculations of the bandgaps. The presented statistical learning method is not restricted to bandgaps or electronic structure methods and extends the utility of high throughput property predictions in a significant way.

  6. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately under climate change conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Inaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2014-05-01

    The onset of the growing season of trees has been globally earlier by 2.3 days/decade during the last 50 years because of global warming and this trend is predicted to continue according to climate forecast. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is however not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud dormancy, and on the other hand higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cells growth afterwards. Increasing phenological changes in temperate woody species have strong impacts on forest trees distribution and productivity, as well as crops cultivation areas. Accurate predictions of trees phenology are therefore a prerequisite to understand and foresee the impacts of climate change on forests and agrosystems. Different process-based models have been developed in the last two decades to predict the date of budburst or flowering of woody species. They are two main families: (1) one-phase models which consider only the ecodormancy phase and make the assumption that endodormancy is always broken before adequate climatic conditions for cell growth occur; and (2) two-phase models which consider both the endodormancy and ecodormancy phases and predict a date of dormancy break which varies from year to year. So far, one-phase models have been able to predict accurately tree bud break and flowering under historical climate. However, because they do not consider what happens prior to ecodormancy, and especially the possible negative effect of winter temperature warming on dormancy break, it seems unlikely that they can provide accurate predictions in future climate conditions. It is indeed well known that a lack of low temperature results in abnormal pattern of bud break and development in temperate fruit trees. An accurate modelling of the dormancy break date has thus become a major issue in phenology modelling. Two-phases phenological models predict that global warming should delay

  7. Rapid and accurate prediction and scoring of water molecules in protein binding sites.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory A Ross

    Full Text Available Water plays a critical role in ligand-protein interactions. However, it is still challenging to predict accurately not only where water molecules prefer to bind, but also which of those water molecules might be displaceable. The latter is often seen as a route to optimizing affinity of potential drug candidates. Using a protocol we call WaterDock, we show that the freely available AutoDock Vina tool can be used to predict accurately the binding sites of water molecules. WaterDock was validated using data from X-ray crystallography, neutron diffraction and molecular dynamics simulations and correctly predicted 97% of the water molecules in the test set. In addition, we combined data-mining, heuristic and machine learning techniques to develop probabilistic water molecule classifiers. When applied to WaterDock predictions in the Astex Diverse Set of protein ligand complexes, we could identify whether a water molecule was conserved or displaced to an accuracy of 75%. A second model predicted whether water molecules were displaced by polar groups or by non-polar groups to an accuracy of 80%. These results should prove useful for anyone wishing to undertake rational design of new compounds where the displacement of water molecules is being considered as a route to improved affinity.

  8. Fast and Accurate Prediction of Stratified Steel Temperature During Holding Period of Ladle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deodhar, Anirudh; Singh, Umesh; Shukla, Rishabh; Gautham, B. P.; Singh, Amarendra K.

    2017-04-01

    Thermal stratification of liquid steel in a ladle during the holding period and the teeming operation has a direct bearing on the superheat available at the caster and hence on the caster set points such as casting speed and cooling rates. The changes in the caster set points are typically carried out based on temperature measurements at the end of tundish outlet. Thermal prediction models provide advance knowledge of the influence of process and design parameters on the steel temperature at various stages. Therefore, they can be used in making accurate decisions about the caster set points in real time. However, this requires both fast and accurate thermal prediction models. In this work, we develop a surrogate model for the prediction of thermal stratification using data extracted from a set of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, pre-determined using design of experiments technique. Regression method is used for training the predictor. The model predicts the stratified temperature profile instantaneously, for a given set of process parameters such as initial steel temperature, refractory heat content, slag thickness, and holding time. More than 96 pct of the predicted values are within an error range of ±5 K (±5 °C), when compared against corresponding CFD results. Considering its accuracy and computational efficiency, the model can be extended for thermal control of casting operations. This work also sets a benchmark for developing similar thermal models for downstream processes such as tundish and caster.

  9. An accurate model for numerical prediction of piezoelectric energy harvesting from fluid structure interaction problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amini, Y; Emdad, H; Farid, M

    2014-01-01

    Piezoelectric energy harvesting (PEH) from ambient energy sources, particularly vibrations, has attracted considerable interest throughout the last decade. Since fluid flow has a high energy density, it is one of the best candidates for PEH. Indeed, a piezoelectric energy harvesting process from the fluid flow takes the form of natural three-way coupling of the turbulent fluid flow, the electromechanical effect of the piezoelectric material and the electrical circuit. There are some experimental and numerical studies about piezoelectric energy harvesting from fluid flow in literatures. Nevertheless, accurate modeling for predicting characteristics of this three-way coupling has not yet been developed. In the present study, accurate modeling for this triple coupling is developed and validated by experimental results. A new code based on this modeling in an openFOAM platform is developed. (paper)

  10. Machine learning predictions of molecular properties: Accurate many-body potentials and nonlocality in chemical space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, Katja; Biegler, Franziska; Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan; Pronobis, Wiktor; Lilienfeld, O. Anatole von; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Tkatchenko, Alexandre

    2015-01-01

    Simultaneously accurate and efficient prediction of molecular properties throughout chemical compound space is a critical ingredient toward rational compound design in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Aiming toward this goal, we develop and apply a systematic hierarchy of efficient empirical methods to estimate atomization and total energies of molecules. These methods range from a simple sum over atoms, to addition of bond energies, to pairwise interatomic force fields, reaching to the more sophisticated machine learning approaches that are capable of describing collective interactions between many atoms or bonds. In the case of equilibrium molecular geometries, even simple pairwise force fields demonstrate prediction accuracy comparable to benchmark energies calculated using density functional theory with hybrid exchange-correlation functionals; however, accounting for the collective many-body interactions proves to be essential for approaching the 'holy grail' of chemical accuracy of 1 kcal/mol for both equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium geometries. This remarkable accuracy is achieved by a vectorized representation of molecules (so-called Bag of Bonds model) that exhibits strong nonlocality in chemical space. The same representation allows us to predict accurate electronic properties of molecules, such as their polarizability and molecular frontier orbital energies

  11. Accurate approximation method for prediction of class I MHC affinities for peptides of length 8, 10 and 11 using prediction tools trained on 9mers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundegaard, Claus; Lund, Ole; Nielsen, Morten

    2008-01-01

    Several accurate prediction systems have been developed for prediction of class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC):peptide binding. Most of these are trained on binding affinity data of primarily 9mer peptides. Here, we show how prediction methods trained on 9mer data can be used for accurate...

  12. Development and Validation of a Multidisciplinary Tool for Accurate and Efficient Rotorcraft Noise Prediction (MUTE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yi; Anusonti-Inthra, Phuriwat; Diskin, Boris

    2011-01-01

    A physics-based, systematically coupled, multidisciplinary prediction tool (MUTE) for rotorcraft noise was developed and validated with a wide range of flight configurations and conditions. MUTE is an aggregation of multidisciplinary computational tools that accurately and efficiently model the physics of the source of rotorcraft noise, and predict the noise at far-field observer locations. It uses systematic coupling approaches among multiple disciplines including Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Structural Dynamics (CSD), and high fidelity acoustics. Within MUTE, advanced high-order CFD tools are used around the rotor blade to predict the transonic flow (shock wave) effects, which generate the high-speed impulsive noise. Predictions of the blade-vortex interaction noise in low speed flight are also improved by using the Particle Vortex Transport Method (PVTM), which preserves the wake flow details required for blade/wake and fuselage/wake interactions. The accuracy of the source noise prediction is further improved by utilizing a coupling approach between CFD and CSD, so that the effects of key structural dynamics, elastic blade deformations, and trim solutions are correctly represented in the analysis. The blade loading information and/or the flow field parameters around the rotor blade predicted by the CFD/CSD coupling approach are used to predict the acoustic signatures at far-field observer locations with a high-fidelity noise propagation code (WOPWOP3). The predicted results from the MUTE tool for rotor blade aerodynamic loading and far-field acoustic signatures are compared and validated with a variation of experimental data sets, such as UH60-A data, DNW test data and HART II test data.

  13. The MIDAS touch for Accurately Predicting the Stress-Strain Behavior of Tantalum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jorgensen, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-03-02

    Testing the behavior of metals in extreme environments is not always feasible, so material scientists use models to try and predict the behavior. To achieve accurate results it is necessary to use the appropriate model and material-specific parameters. This research evaluated the performance of six material models available in the MIDAS database [1] to determine at which temperatures and strain-rates they perform best, and to determine to which experimental data their parameters were optimized. Additionally, parameters were optimized for the Johnson-Cook model using experimental data from Lassila et al [2].

  14. Accurate bearing remaining useful life prediction based on Weibull distribution and artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Ali, Jaouher; Chebel-Morello, Brigitte; Saidi, Lotfi; Malinowski, Simon; Fnaiech, Farhat

    2015-05-01

    Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of critical assets is an important challenge in condition based maintenance to improve reliability and decrease machine's breakdown and maintenance's cost. Bearing is one of the most important components in industries which need to be monitored and the user should predict its RUL. The challenge of this study is to propose an original feature able to evaluate the health state of bearings and to estimate their RUL by Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) techniques. In this paper, the proposed method is based on the data-driven prognostic approach. The combination of Simplified Fuzzy Adaptive Resonance Theory Map (SFAM) neural network and Weibull distribution (WD) is explored. WD is used just in the training phase to fit measurement and to avoid areas of fluctuation in the time domain. SFAM training process is based on fitted measurements at present and previous inspection time points as input. However, the SFAM testing process is based on real measurements at present and previous inspections. Thanks to the fuzzy learning process, SFAM has an important ability and a good performance to learn nonlinear time series. As output, seven classes are defined; healthy bearing and six states for bearing degradation. In order to find the optimal RUL prediction, a smoothing phase is proposed in this paper. Experimental results show that the proposed method can reliably predict the RUL of rolling element bearings (REBs) based on vibration signals. The proposed prediction approach can be applied to prognostic other various mechanical assets.

  15. Accurate prediction of severe allergic reactions by a small set of environmental parameters (NDVI, temperature).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notas, George; Bariotakis, Michail; Kalogrias, Vaios; Andrianaki, Maria; Azariadis, Kalliopi; Kampouri, Errika; Theodoropoulou, Katerina; Lavrentaki, Katerina; Kastrinakis, Stelios; Kampa, Marilena; Agouridakis, Panagiotis; Pirintsos, Stergios; Castanas, Elias

    2015-01-01

    Severe allergic reactions of unknown etiology,necessitating a hospital visit, have an important impact in the life of affected individuals and impose a major economic burden to societies. The prediction of clinically severe allergic reactions would be of great importance, but current attempts have been limited by the lack of a well-founded applicable methodology and the wide spatiotemporal distribution of allergic reactions. The valid prediction of severe allergies (and especially those needing hospital treatment) in a region, could alert health authorities and implicated individuals to take appropriate preemptive measures. In the present report we have collecterd visits for serious allergic reactions of unknown etiology from two major hospitals in the island of Crete, for two distinct time periods (validation and test sets). We have used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a satellite-based, freely available measurement, which is an indicator of live green vegetation at a given geographic area, and a set of meteorological data to develop a model capable of describing and predicting severe allergic reaction frequency. Our analysis has retained NDVI and temperature as accurate identifiers and predictors of increased hospital severe allergic reactions visits. Our approach may contribute towards the development of satellite-based modules, for the prediction of severe allergic reactions in specific, well-defined geographical areas. It could also probably be used for the prediction of other environment related diseases and conditions.

  16. XenoSite: accurately predicting CYP-mediated sites of metabolism with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaretzki, Jed; Matlock, Matthew; Swamidass, S Joshua

    2013-12-23

    Understanding how xenobiotic molecules are metabolized is important because it influences the safety, efficacy, and dose of medicines and how they can be modified to improve these properties. The cytochrome P450s (CYPs) are proteins responsible for metabolizing 90% of drugs on the market, and many computational methods can predict which atomic sites of a molecule--sites of metabolism (SOMs)--are modified during CYP-mediated metabolism. This study improves on prior methods of predicting CYP-mediated SOMs by using new descriptors and machine learning based on neural networks. The new method, XenoSite, is faster to train and more accurate by as much as 4% or 5% for some isozymes. Furthermore, some "incorrect" predictions made by XenoSite were subsequently validated as correct predictions by revaluation of the source literature. Moreover, XenoSite output is interpretable as a probability, which reflects both the confidence of the model that a particular atom is metabolized and the statistical likelihood that its prediction for that atom is correct.

  17. An Interpretable Machine Learning Model for Accurate Prediction of Sepsis in the ICU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemati, Shamim; Holder, Andre; Razmi, Fereshteh; Stanley, Matthew D; Clifford, Gari D; Buchman, Timothy G

    2018-04-01

    Sepsis is among the leading causes of morbidity, mortality, and cost overruns in critically ill patients. Early intervention with antibiotics improves survival in septic patients. However, no clinically validated system exists for real-time prediction of sepsis onset. We aimed to develop and validate an Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert algorithm for early prediction of sepsis. Observational cohort study. Academic medical center from January 2013 to December 2015. Over 31,000 admissions to the ICUs at two Emory University hospitals (development cohort), in addition to over 52,000 ICU patients from the publicly available Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III ICU database (validation cohort). Patients who met the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis (Sepsis-3) prior to or within 4 hours of their ICU admission were excluded, resulting in roughly 27,000 and 42,000 patients within our development and validation cohorts, respectively. None. High-resolution vital signs time series and electronic medical record data were extracted. A set of 65 features (variables) were calculated on hourly basis and passed to the Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert algorithm to predict onset of sepsis in the proceeding T hours (where T = 12, 8, 6, or 4). Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert was used to predict onset of sepsis in the proceeding T hours and to produce a list of the most significant contributing factors. For the 12-, 8-, 6-, and 4-hour ahead prediction of sepsis, Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic in the range of 0.83-0.85. Performance of the Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert on the development and validation cohorts was indistinguishable. Using data available in the ICU in real-time, Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert can accurately predict the onset of sepsis in an ICU patient 4-12 hours prior to clinical recognition. A prospective study is necessary to determine the

  18. An Extrapolation of a Radical Equation More Accurately Predicts Shelf Life of Frozen Biological Matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vore, Karl W; Fatahi, Nadia M; Sass, John E

    2016-08-01

    Arrhenius modeling of analyte recovery at increased temperatures to predict long-term colder storage stability of biological raw materials, reagents, calibrators, and controls is standard practice in the diagnostics industry. Predicting subzero temperature stability using the same practice is frequently criticized but nevertheless heavily relied upon. We compared the ability to predict analyte recovery during frozen storage using 3 separate strategies: traditional accelerated studies with Arrhenius modeling, and extrapolation of recovery at 20% of shelf life using either ordinary least squares or a radical equation y = B1x(0.5) + B0. Computer simulations were performed to establish equivalence of statistical power to discern the expected changes during frozen storage or accelerated stress. This was followed by actual predictive and follow-up confirmatory testing of 12 chemistry and immunoassay analytes. Linear extrapolations tended to be the most conservative in the predicted percent recovery, reducing customer and patient risk. However, the majority of analytes followed a rate of change that slowed over time, which was fit best to a radical equation of the form y = B1x(0.5) + B0. Other evidence strongly suggested that the slowing of the rate was not due to higher-order kinetics, but to changes in the matrix during storage. Predicting shelf life of frozen products through extrapolation of early initial real-time storage analyte recovery should be considered the most accurate method. Although in this study the time required for a prediction was longer than a typical accelerated testing protocol, there are less potential sources of error, reduced costs, and a lower expenditure of resources. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

  19. Microbiome Data Accurately Predicts the Postmortem Interval Using Random Forest Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aeriel Belk

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Death investigations often include an effort to establish the postmortem interval (PMI in cases in which the time of death is uncertain. The postmortem interval can lead to the identification of the deceased and the validation of witness statements and suspect alibis. Recent research has demonstrated that microbes provide an accurate clock that starts at death and relies on ecological change in the microbial communities that normally inhabit a body and its surrounding environment. Here, we explore how to build the most robust Random Forest regression models for prediction of PMI by testing models built on different sample types (gravesoil, skin of the torso, skin of the head, gene markers (16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA, 18S rRNA, internal transcribed spacer regions (ITS, and taxonomic levels (sequence variants, species, genus, etc.. We also tested whether particular suites of indicator microbes were informative across different datasets. Generally, results indicate that the most accurate models for predicting PMI were built using gravesoil and skin data using the 16S rRNA genetic marker at the taxonomic level of phyla. Additionally, several phyla consistently contributed highly to model accuracy and may be candidate indicators of PMI.

  20. Tracheobronchial foreign bodies in children: importance of accurate history and plain chest radiography in delayed presentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tokar, B. E-mail: btokar@ogu.edu.trbarantokar@hotmail.com; Ozkan, R.; Ilhan, H

    2004-07-01

    AIM: To evaluate the factors associated with delayed diagnosis of foreign body aspiration (FBA) in children and to compare clinical, radiological and bronchoscopic findings in the patients with suspected FBA. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The medical records of 214 children who underwent bronchoscopy for suspected FBA were reviewed. The data were analysed in three groups: the patients with negative bronchoscopy for FBA (group I), early (group II) and delayed diagnosis (group III). RESULTS: The majority of the patients with FBA were between 1 and 3 years of age. Choking episodes, coughing and decreased breath sounds were determined in a significantly higher number of the patients with FBA. The plain chest radiography revealed radio-opaque foreign bodies (FBs) in 19.7% of all patients with FBA. Emphysema was more common in children with FBA. Clinical and radiological findings of pneumonia and atelectasis were significantly more common in the groups with negative bronchoscopy and with delayed diagnosis (p<0.01). The FBs were most frequently of vegetable origin, such as seeds and peanuts. A significant tissue reaction with inflammation was more common in the delayed cases. CONCLUSION: To prevent delayed diagnosis, characteristic symptoms, signs and radiological findings of FBA should be checked in all suspected cases. As clinical and radiological findings of FBA in delayed cases may mimic other disorders, the clinician must be aware of the likelihood of FBA. Regardless of radiological findings, bronchoscopy should be considered in patients with an appropriate history.

  1. ILT based defect simulation of inspection images accurately predicts mask defect printability on wafer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deep, Prakash; Paninjath, Sankaranarayanan; Pereira, Mark; Buck, Peter

    2016-05-01

    At advanced technology nodes mask complexity has been increased because of large-scale use of resolution enhancement technologies (RET) which includes Optical Proximity Correction (OPC), Inverse Lithography Technology (ILT) and Source Mask Optimization (SMO). The number of defects detected during inspection of such mask increased drastically and differentiation of critical and non-critical defects are more challenging, complex and time consuming. Because of significant defectivity of EUVL masks and non-availability of actinic inspection, it is important and also challenging to predict the criticality of defects for printability on wafer. This is one of the significant barriers for the adoption of EUVL for semiconductor manufacturing. Techniques to decide criticality of defects from images captured using non actinic inspection images is desired till actinic inspection is not available. High resolution inspection of photomask images detects many defects which are used for process and mask qualification. Repairing all defects is not practical and probably not required, however it's imperative to know which defects are severe enough to impact wafer before repair. Additionally, wafer printability check is always desired after repairing a defect. AIMSTM review is the industry standard for this, however doing AIMSTM review for all defects is expensive and very time consuming. Fast, accurate and an economical mechanism is desired which can predict defect printability on wafer accurately and quickly from images captured using high resolution inspection machine. Predicting defect printability from such images is challenging due to the fact that the high resolution images do not correlate with actual mask contours. The challenge is increased due to use of different optical condition during inspection other than actual scanner condition, and defects found in such images do not have correlation with actual impact on wafer. Our automated defect simulation tool predicts

  2. Differential contribution of visual and auditory information to accurately predict the direction and rotational motion of a visual stimulus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Seoung Hoon; Kim, Seonjin; Kwon, MinHyuk; Christou, Evangelos A

    2016-03-01

    Vision and auditory information are critical for perception and to enhance the ability of an individual to respond accurately to a stimulus. However, it is unknown whether visual and auditory information contribute differentially to identify the direction and rotational motion of the stimulus. The purpose of this study was to determine the ability of an individual to accurately predict the direction and rotational motion of the stimulus based on visual and auditory information. In this study, we recruited 9 expert table-tennis players and used table-tennis service as our experimental model. Participants watched recorded services with different levels of visual and auditory information. The goal was to anticipate the direction of the service (left or right) and the rotational motion of service (topspin, sidespin, or cut). We recorded their responses and quantified the following outcomes: (i) directional accuracy and (ii) rotational motion accuracy. The response accuracy was the accurate predictions relative to the total number of trials. The ability of the participants to predict the direction of the service accurately increased with additional visual information but not with auditory information. In contrast, the ability of the participants to predict the rotational motion of the service accurately increased with the addition of auditory information to visual information but not with additional visual information alone. In conclusion, this finding demonstrates that visual information enhances the ability of an individual to accurately predict the direction of the stimulus, whereas additional auditory information enhances the ability of an individual to accurately predict the rotational motion of stimulus.

  3. Improvement of a land surface model for accurate prediction of surface energy and water balances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katata, Genki

    2009-02-01

    In order to predict energy and water balances between the biosphere and atmosphere accurately, sophisticated schemes to calculate evaporation and adsorption processes in the soil and cloud (fog) water deposition on vegetation were implemented in the one-dimensional atmosphere-soil-vegetation model including CO 2 exchange process (SOLVEG2). Performance tests in arid areas showed that the above schemes have a significant effect on surface energy and water balances. The framework of the above schemes incorporated in the SOLVEG2 and instruction for running the model are documented. With further modifications of the model to implement the carbon exchanges between the vegetation and soil, deposition processes of materials on the land surface, vegetation stress-growth-dynamics etc., the model is suited to evaluate an effect of environmental loads to ecosystems by atmospheric pollutants and radioactive substances under climate changes such as global warming and drought. (author)

  4. Crystal Graph Convolutional Neural Networks for an Accurate and Interpretable Prediction of Material Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Tian; Grossman, Jeffrey C.

    2018-04-01

    The use of machine learning methods for accelerating the design of crystalline materials usually requires manually constructed feature vectors or complex transformation of atom coordinates to input the crystal structure, which either constrains the model to certain crystal types or makes it difficult to provide chemical insights. Here, we develop a crystal graph convolutional neural networks framework to directly learn material properties from the connection of atoms in the crystal, providing a universal and interpretable representation of crystalline materials. Our method provides a highly accurate prediction of density functional theory calculated properties for eight different properties of crystals with various structure types and compositions after being trained with 1 04 data points. Further, our framework is interpretable because one can extract the contributions from local chemical environments to global properties. Using an example of perovskites, we show how this information can be utilized to discover empirical rules for materials design.

  5. Watershed area ratio accurately predicts daily streamflow in nested catchments in the Catskills, New York

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris C. Gianfagna

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Watershed area ratio was the most important basin parameter for estimating flow at upstream sites based on downstream flow. The area ratio alone explained 93% of the variance in the slopes of relationships between upstream and downstream flows. Regression analysis indicated that flow at any upstream point can be estimated by multiplying the flow at a downstream reference gage by the watershed area ratio. This method accurately predicted upstream flows at area ratios as low as 0.005. We also observed a very strong relationship (R2 = 0.79 between area ratio and flow–flow slopes in non-nested catchments. Our results indicate that a simple flow estimation method based on watershed area ratios is justifiable, and indeed preferred, for the estimation of daily streamflow in ungaged watersheds in the Catskills region.

  6. In vitro transcription accurately predicts lac repressor phenotype in vivo in Escherichia coli

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Almond Sochor

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available A multitude of studies have looked at the in vivo and in vitro behavior of the lac repressor binding to DNA and effector molecules in order to study transcriptional repression, however these studies are not always reconcilable. Here we use in vitro transcription to directly mimic the in vivo system in order to build a self consistent set of experiments to directly compare in vivo and in vitro genetic repression. A thermodynamic model of the lac repressor binding to operator DNA and effector is used to link DNA occupancy to either normalized in vitro mRNA product or normalized in vivo fluorescence of a regulated gene, YFP. An accurate measurement of repressor, DNA and effector concentrations were made both in vivo and in vitro allowing for direct modeling of the entire thermodynamic equilibrium. In vivo repression profiles are accurately predicted from the given in vitro parameters when molecular crowding is considered. Interestingly, our measured repressor–operator DNA affinity differs significantly from previous in vitro measurements. The literature values are unable to replicate in vivo binding data. We therefore conclude that the repressor-DNA affinity is much weaker than previously thought. This finding would suggest that in vitro techniques that are specifically designed to mimic the in vivo process may be necessary to replicate the native system.

  7. Measuring solar reflectance - Part I: Defining a metric that accurately predicts solar heat gain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levinson, Ronnen; Akbari, Hashem; Berdahl, Paul [Heat Island Group, Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

    2010-09-15

    Solar reflectance can vary with the spectral and angular distributions of incident sunlight, which in turn depend on surface orientation, solar position and atmospheric conditions. A widely used solar reflectance metric based on the ASTM Standard E891 beam-normal solar spectral irradiance underestimates the solar heat gain of a spectrally selective ''cool colored'' surface because this irradiance contains a greater fraction of near-infrared light than typically found in ordinary (unconcentrated) global sunlight. At mainland US latitudes, this metric R{sub E891BN} can underestimate the annual peak solar heat gain of a typical roof or pavement (slope {<=} 5:12 [23 ]) by as much as 89 W m{sup -2}, and underestimate its peak surface temperature by up to 5 K. Using R{sub E891BN} to characterize roofs in a building energy simulation can exaggerate the economic value N of annual cool roof net energy savings by as much as 23%. We define clear sky air mass one global horizontal (''AM1GH'') solar reflectance R{sub g,0}, a simple and easily measured property that more accurately predicts solar heat gain. R{sub g,0} predicts the annual peak solar heat gain of a roof or pavement to within 2 W m{sup -2}, and overestimates N by no more than 3%. R{sub g,0} is well suited to rating the solar reflectances of roofs, pavements and walls. We show in Part II that R{sub g,0} can be easily and accurately measured with a pyranometer, a solar spectrophotometer or version 6 of the Solar Spectrum Reflectometer. (author)

  8. A Machine Learned Classifier That Uses Gene Expression Data to Accurately Predict Estrogen Receptor Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastani, Meysam; Vos, Larissa; Asgarian, Nasimeh; Deschenes, Jean; Graham, Kathryn; Mackey, John; Greiner, Russell

    2013-01-01

    Background Selecting the appropriate treatment for breast cancer requires accurately determining the estrogen receptor (ER) status of the tumor. However, the standard for determining this status, immunohistochemical analysis of formalin-fixed paraffin embedded samples, suffers from numerous technical and reproducibility issues. Assessment of ER-status based on RNA expression can provide more objective, quantitative and reproducible test results. Methods To learn a parsimonious RNA-based classifier of hormone receptor status, we applied a machine learning tool to a training dataset of gene expression microarray data obtained from 176 frozen breast tumors, whose ER-status was determined by applying ASCO-CAP guidelines to standardized immunohistochemical testing of formalin fixed tumor. Results This produced a three-gene classifier that can predict the ER-status of a novel tumor, with a cross-validation accuracy of 93.17±2.44%. When applied to an independent validation set and to four other public databases, some on different platforms, this classifier obtained over 90% accuracy in each. In addition, we found that this prediction rule separated the patients' recurrence-free survival curves with a hazard ratio lower than the one based on the IHC analysis of ER-status. Conclusions Our efficient and parsimonious classifier lends itself to high throughput, highly accurate and low-cost RNA-based assessments of ER-status, suitable for routine high-throughput clinical use. This analytic method provides a proof-of-principle that may be applicable to developing effective RNA-based tests for other biomarkers and conditions. PMID:24312637

  9. Measuring solar reflectance Part I: Defining a metric that accurately predicts solar heat gain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levinson, Ronnen; Akbari, Hashem; Berdahl, Paul

    2010-05-14

    Solar reflectance can vary with the spectral and angular distributions of incident sunlight, which in turn depend on surface orientation, solar position and atmospheric conditions. A widely used solar reflectance metric based on the ASTM Standard E891 beam-normal solar spectral irradiance underestimates the solar heat gain of a spectrally selective 'cool colored' surface because this irradiance contains a greater fraction of near-infrared light than typically found in ordinary (unconcentrated) global sunlight. At mainland U.S. latitudes, this metric RE891BN can underestimate the annual peak solar heat gain of a typical roof or pavement (slope {le} 5:12 [23{sup o}]) by as much as 89 W m{sup -2}, and underestimate its peak surface temperature by up to 5 K. Using R{sub E891BN} to characterize roofs in a building energy simulation can exaggerate the economic value N of annual cool-roof net energy savings by as much as 23%. We define clear-sky air mass one global horizontal ('AM1GH') solar reflectance R{sub g,0}, a simple and easily measured property that more accurately predicts solar heat gain. R{sub g,0} predicts the annual peak solar heat gain of a roof or pavement to within 2 W m{sup -2}, and overestimates N by no more than 3%. R{sub g,0} is well suited to rating the solar reflectances of roofs, pavements and walls. We show in Part II that R{sub g,0} can be easily and accurately measured with a pyranometer, a solar spectrophotometer or version 6 of the Solar Spectrum Reflectometer.

  10. A machine learned classifier that uses gene expression data to accurately predict estrogen receptor status.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meysam Bastani

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Selecting the appropriate treatment for breast cancer requires accurately determining the estrogen receptor (ER status of the tumor. However, the standard for determining this status, immunohistochemical analysis of formalin-fixed paraffin embedded samples, suffers from numerous technical and reproducibility issues. Assessment of ER-status based on RNA expression can provide more objective, quantitative and reproducible test results. METHODS: To learn a parsimonious RNA-based classifier of hormone receptor status, we applied a machine learning tool to a training dataset of gene expression microarray data obtained from 176 frozen breast tumors, whose ER-status was determined by applying ASCO-CAP guidelines to standardized immunohistochemical testing of formalin fixed tumor. RESULTS: This produced a three-gene classifier that can predict the ER-status of a novel tumor, with a cross-validation accuracy of 93.17±2.44%. When applied to an independent validation set and to four other public databases, some on different platforms, this classifier obtained over 90% accuracy in each. In addition, we found that this prediction rule separated the patients' recurrence-free survival curves with a hazard ratio lower than the one based on the IHC analysis of ER-status. CONCLUSIONS: Our efficient and parsimonious classifier lends itself to high throughput, highly accurate and low-cost RNA-based assessments of ER-status, suitable for routine high-throughput clinical use. This analytic method provides a proof-of-principle that may be applicable to developing effective RNA-based tests for other biomarkers and conditions.

  11. Highly accurate prediction of food challenge outcome using routinely available clinical data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DunnGalvin, Audrey; Daly, Deirdre; Cullinane, Claire; Stenke, Emily; Keeton, Diane; Erlewyn-Lajeunesse, Mich; Roberts, Graham C; Lucas, Jane; Hourihane, Jonathan O'B

    2011-03-01

    Serum specific IgE or skin prick tests are less useful at levels below accepted decision points. We sought to develop and validate a model to predict food challenge outcome by using routinely collected data in a diverse sample of children considered suitable for food challenge. The proto-algorithm was generated by using a limited data set from 1 service (phase 1). We retrospectively applied, evaluated, and modified the initial model by using an extended data set in another center (phase 2). Finally, we prospectively validated the model in a blind study in a further group of children undergoing food challenge for peanut, milk, or egg in the second center (phase 3). Allergen-specific models were developed for peanut, egg, and milk. Phase 1 (N = 429) identified 5 clinical factors associated with diagnosis of food allergy by food challenge. In phase 2 (N = 289), we examined the predictive ability of 6 clinical factors: skin prick test, serum specific IgE, total IgE minus serum specific IgE, symptoms, sex, and age. In phase 3 (N = 70), 97% of cases were accurately predicted as positive and 94% as negative. Our model showed an advantage in clinical prediction compared with serum specific IgE only, skin prick test only, and serum specific IgE and skin prick test (92% accuracy vs 57%, and 81%, respectively). Our findings have implications for the improved delivery of food allergy-related health care, enhanced food allergy-related quality of life, and economized use of health service resources by decreasing the number of food challenges performed. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. ChIP-seq Accurately Predicts Tissue-Specific Activity of Enhancers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Visel, Axel; Blow, Matthew J.; Li, Zirong; Zhang, Tao; Akiyama, Jennifer A.; Holt, Amy; Plajzer-Frick, Ingrid; Shoukry, Malak; Wright, Crystal; Chen, Feng; Afzal, Veena; Ren, Bing; Rubin, Edward M.; Pennacchio, Len A.

    2009-02-01

    A major yet unresolved quest in decoding the human genome is the identification of the regulatory sequences that control the spatial and temporal expression of genes. Distant-acting transcriptional enhancers are particularly challenging to uncover since they are scattered amongst the vast non-coding portion of the genome. Evolutionary sequence constraint can facilitate the discovery of enhancers, but fails to predict when and where they are active in vivo. Here, we performed chromatin immunoprecipitation with the enhancer-associated protein p300, followed by massively-parallel sequencing, to map several thousand in vivo binding sites of p300 in mouse embryonic forebrain, midbrain, and limb tissue. We tested 86 of these sequences in a transgenic mouse assay, which in nearly all cases revealed reproducible enhancer activity in those tissues predicted by p300 binding. Our results indicate that in vivo mapping of p300 binding is a highly accurate means for identifying enhancers and their associated activities and suggest that such datasets will be useful to study the role of tissue-specific enhancers in human biology and disease on a genome-wide scale.

  13. Accurate and Reliable Prediction of the Binding Affinities of Macrocycles to Their Protein Targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Haoyu S; Deng, Yuqing; Wu, Yujie; Sindhikara, Dan; Rask, Amy R; Kimura, Takayuki; Abel, Robert; Wang, Lingle

    2017-12-12

    Macrocycles have been emerging as a very important drug class in the past few decades largely due to their expanded chemical diversity benefiting from advances in synthetic methods. Macrocyclization has been recognized as an effective way to restrict the conformational space of acyclic small molecule inhibitors with the hope of improving potency, selectivity, and metabolic stability. Because of their relatively larger size as compared to typical small molecule drugs and the complexity of the structures, efficient sampling of the accessible macrocycle conformational space and accurate prediction of their binding affinities to their target protein receptors poses a great challenge of central importance in computational macrocycle drug design. In this article, we present a novel method for relative binding free energy calculations between macrocycles with different ring sizes and between the macrocycles and their corresponding acyclic counterparts. We have applied the method to seven pharmaceutically interesting data sets taken from recent drug discovery projects including 33 macrocyclic ligands covering a diverse chemical space. The predicted binding free energies are in good agreement with experimental data with an overall root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.94 kcal/mol. This is to our knowledge the first time where the free energy of the macrocyclization of linear molecules has been directly calculated with rigorous physics-based free energy calculation methods, and we anticipate the outstanding accuracy demonstrated here across a broad range of target classes may have significant implications for macrocycle drug discovery.

  14. Do Dual-Route Models Accurately Predict Reading and Spelling Performance in Individuals with Acquired Alexia and Agraphia?

    OpenAIRE

    Rapcsak, Steven Z.; Henry, Maya L.; Teague, Sommer L.; Carnahan, Susan D.; Beeson, Pélagie M.

    2007-01-01

    Coltheart and colleagues (Coltheart, Rastle, Perry, Langdon, & Ziegler, 2001; Castles, Bates, & Coltheart, 2006) have demonstrated that an equation derived from dual-route theory accurately predicts reading performance in young normal readers and in children with reading impairment due to developmental dyslexia or stroke. In this paper we present evidence that the dual-route equation and a related multiple regression model also accurately predict both reading and spelling performance in adult...

  15. Accurate First-Principles Spectra Predictions for Planetological and Astrophysical Applications at Various T-Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, M.; Nikitin, A. V.; Tyuterev, V.

    2014-06-01

    Knowledge of near infrared intensities of rovibrational transitions of polyatomic molecules is essential for the modeling of various planetary atmospheres, brown dwarfs and for other astrophysical applications 1,2,3. For example, to analyze exoplanets, atmospheric models have been developed, thus making the need to provide accurate spectroscopic data. Consequently, the spectral characterization of such planetary objects relies on the necessity of having adequate and reliable molecular data in extreme conditions (temperature, optical path length, pressure). On the other hand, in the modeling of astrophysical opacities, millions of lines are generally involved and the line-by-line extraction is clearly not feasible in laboratory measurements. It is thus suggested that this large amount of data could be interpreted only by reliable theoretical predictions. There exists essentially two theoretical approaches for the computation and prediction of spectra. The first one is based on empirically-fitted effective spectroscopic models. Another way for computing energies, line positions and intensities is based on global variational calculations using ab initio surfaces. They do not yet reach the spectroscopic accuracy stricto sensu but implicitly account for all intramolecular interactions including resonance couplings in a wide spectral range. The final aim of this work is to provide reliable predictions which could be quantitatively accurate with respect to the precision of available observations and as complete as possible. All this thus requires extensive first-principles quantum mechanical calculations essentially based on three necessary ingredients which are (i) accurate intramolecular potential energy surface and dipole moment surface components well-defined in a large range of vibrational displacements and (ii) efficient computational methods combined with suitable choices of coordinates to account for molecular symmetry properties and to achieve a good numerical

  16. Does the emergency surgery score accurately predict outcomes in emergent laparotomies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peponis, Thomas; Bohnen, Jordan D; Sangji, Naveen F; Nandan, Anirudh R; Han, Kelsey; Lee, Jarone; Yeh, D Dante; de Moya, Marc A; Velmahos, George C; Chang, David C; Kaafarani, Haytham M A

    2017-08-01

    The emergency surgery score is a mortality-risk calculator for emergency general operation patients. We sought to examine whether the emergency surgery score predicts 30-day morbidity and mortality in a high-risk group of patients undergoing emergent laparotomy. Using the 2011-2012 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, we identified all patients who underwent emergent laparotomy using (1) the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program definition of "emergent," and (2) all Current Procedural Terminology codes denoting a laparotomy, excluding aortic aneurysm rupture. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to measure the correlation (c-statistic) between the emergency surgery score and (1) 30-day mortality, and (2) 30-day morbidity after emergent laparotomy. As sensitivity analyses, the correlation between the emergency surgery score and 30-day mortality was also evaluated in prespecified subgroups based on Current Procedural Terminology codes. A total of 26,410 emergent laparotomy patients were included. Thirty-day mortality and morbidity were 10.2% and 43.8%, respectively. The emergency surgery score correlated well with mortality (c-statistic = 0.84); scores of 1, 11, and 22 correlated with mortalities of 0.4%, 39%, and 100%, respectively. Similarly, the emergency surgery score correlated well with morbidity (c-statistic = 0.74); scores of 0, 7, and 11 correlated with complication rates of 13%, 58%, and 79%, respectively. The morbidity rates plateaued for scores higher than 11. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the emergency surgery score effectively predicts mortality in patients undergoing emergent (1) splenic, (2) gastroduodenal, (3) intestinal, (4) hepatobiliary, or (5) incarcerated ventral hernia operation. The emergency surgery score accurately predicts outcomes in all types of emergent laparotomy patients and may prove valuable as a bedside decision

  17. Microvascular remodelling in preeclampsia: quantifying capillary rarefaction accurately and independently predicts preeclampsia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonios, Tarek F T; Nama, Vivek; Wang, Duolao; Manyonda, Isaac T

    2013-09-01

    Preeclampsia is a major cause of maternal and neonatal mortality and morbidity. The incidence of preeclampsia seems to be rising because of increased prevalence of predisposing disorders, such as essential hypertension, diabetes, and obesity, and there is increasing evidence to suggest widespread microcirculatory abnormalities before the onset of preeclampsia. We hypothesized that quantifying capillary rarefaction could be helpful in the clinical prediction of preeclampsia. We measured skin capillary density according to a well-validated protocol at 5 consecutive predetermined visits in 322 consecutive white women, of whom 16 subjects developed preeclampsia. We found that structural capillary rarefaction at 20-24 weeks of gestation yielded a sensitivity of 0.87 with a specificity of 0.50 at the cutoff of 2 capillaries/field with the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic value of 0.70, whereas capillary rarefaction at 27-32 weeks of gestation yielded a sensitivity of 0.75 and a higher specificity of 0.77 at the cutoff of 8 capillaries/field with area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic value of 0.82. Combining capillary rarefaction with uterine artery Doppler pulsatility index increased the sensitivity and specificity of the prediction. Multivariable analysis shows that the odds of preeclampsia are increased in women with previous history of preeclampsia or chronic hypertension and in those with increased uterine artery Doppler pulsatility index, but the most powerful and independent predictor of preeclampsia was capillary rarefaction at 27-32 weeks. Quantifying structural rarefaction of skin capillaries in pregnancy is a potentially useful clinical marker for the prediction of preeclampsia.

  18. Can radiation therapy treatment planning system accurately predict surface doses in postmastectomy radiation therapy patients?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, Sharon; Back, Michael; Tan, Poh Wee; Lee, Khai Mun; Baggarley, Shaun; Lu, Jaide Jay

    2012-01-01

    Skin doses have been an important factor in the dose prescription for breast radiotherapy. Recent advances in radiotherapy treatment techniques, such as intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and new treatment schemes such as hypofractionated breast therapy have made the precise determination of the surface dose necessary. Detailed information of the dose at various depths of the skin is also critical in designing new treatment strategies. The purpose of this work was to assess the accuracy of surface dose calculation by a clinically used treatment planning system and those measured by thermoluminescence dosimeters (TLDs) in a customized chest wall phantom. This study involved the construction of a chest wall phantom for skin dose assessment. Seven TLDs were distributed throughout each right chest wall phantom to give adequate representation of measured radiation doses. Point doses from the CMS Xio® treatment planning system (TPS) were calculated for each relevant TLD positions and results correlated. There were no significant difference between measured absorbed dose by TLD and calculated doses by the TPS (p > 0.05 (1-tailed). Dose accuracy of up to 2.21% was found. The deviations from the calculated absorbed doses were overall larger (3.4%) when wedges and bolus were used. 3D radiotherapy TPS is a useful and accurate tool to assess the accuracy of surface dose. Our studies have shown that radiation treatment accuracy expressed as a comparison between calculated doses (by TPS) and measured doses (by TLD dosimetry) can be accurately predicted for tangential treatment of the chest wall after mastectomy.

  19. How accurate is anatomic limb alignment in predicting mechanical limb alignment after total knee arthroplasty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seung Ah; Choi, Sang-Hee; Chang, Moon Jong

    2015-10-27

    Anatomic limb alignment often differs from mechanical limb alignment after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). We sought to assess the accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity for each of three commonly used ranges for anatomic limb alignment (3-9°, 5-10° and 2-10°) in predicting an acceptable range (neutral ± 3°) for mechanical limb alignment after TKA. We also assessed whether the accuracy of anatomic limb alignment was affected by anatomic variation. This retrospective study included 314 primary TKAs. The alignment of the limb was measured with both anatomic and mechanical methods of measurement. We also measured anatomic variation, including the femoral bowing angle, tibial bowing angle, and neck-shaft angle of the femur. All angles were measured on the same full-length standing anteroposterior radiographs. The accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity for each range of anatomic limb alignment were calculated and compared using mechanical limb alignment as the reference standard. The associations between the accuracy of anatomic limb alignment and anatomic variation were also determined. The range of 2-10° for anatomic limb alignment showed the highest accuracy, but it was only 73 % (3-9°, 65 %; 5-10°, 67 %). The specificity of the 2-10° range was 81 %, which was higher than that of the other ranges (3-9°, 69 %; 5-10°, 67 %). However, the sensitivity of the 2-10° range to predict varus malalignment was only 16 % (3-9°, 35 %; 5-10°, 68 %). In addition, the sensitivity of the 2-10° range to predict valgus malalignment was only 43 % (3-9°, 71 %; 5-10°, 43 %). The accuracy of anatomical limb alignment was lower for knees with greater femoral (odds ratio = 1.2) and tibial (odds ratio = 1.2) bowing. Anatomic limb alignment did not accurately predict mechanical limb alignment after TKA, and its accuracy was affected by anatomic variation. Thus, alignment after TKA should be assessed by measuring mechanical alignment rather than anatomic

  20. Predicting loss of evolutionary history: Where are we?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veron, Simon; Davies, T Jonathan; Cadotte, Marc W; Clergeau, Philippe; Pavoine, Sandrine

    2017-02-01

    The Earth's evolutionary history is threatened by species loss in the current sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history. Such extinction events not only eliminate species but also their unique evolutionary histories. Here we review the expected loss of Earth's evolutionary history quantified by phylogenetic diversity (PD) and evolutionary distinctiveness (ED) at risk. Due to the general paucity of data, global evolutionary history losses have been predicted for only a few groups, such as mammals, birds, amphibians, plants, corals and fishes. Among these groups, there is now empirical support that extinction threats are clustered on the phylogeny; however this is not always a sufficient condition to cause higher loss of phylogenetic diversity in comparison to a scenario of random extinctions. Extinctions of the most evolutionarily distinct species and the shape of phylogenetic trees are additional factors that can elevate losses of evolutionary history. Consequently, impacts of species extinctions differ among groups and regions, and even if global losses are low within large groups, losses can be high among subgroups or within some regions. Further, we show that PD and ED are poorly protected by current conservation practices. While evolutionary history can be indirectly protected by current conservation schemes, optimizing its preservation requires integrating phylogenetic indices with those that capture rarity and extinction risk. Measures based on PD and ED could bring solutions to conservation issues, however they are still rarely used in practice, probably because the reasons to protect evolutionary history are not clear for practitioners or due to a lack of data. However, important advances have been made in the availability of phylogenetic trees and methods for their construction, as well as assessments of extinction risk. Some challenges remain, and looking forward, research should prioritize the assessment of expected PD and ED loss for more taxonomic

  1. A Novel Fibrosis Index Comprising a Non-Cholesterol Sterol Accurately Predicts HCV-Related Liver Cirrhosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ydreborg, Magdalena; Lisovskaja, Vera; Lagging, Martin

    2014-01-01

    of the present study was to create a model for accurate prediction of liver cirrhosis based on patient characteristics and biomarkers of liver fibrosis, including a panel of non-cholesterol sterols reflecting cholesterol synthesis and absorption and secretion. We evaluated variables with potential predictive...

  2. Cluster abundance in chameleon f ( R ) gravity I: toward an accurate halo mass function prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cataneo, Matteo; Rapetti, David [Dark Cosmology Centre, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen (Denmark); Lombriser, Lucas [Institute for Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, Royal Observatory, Blackford Hill, Edinburgh, EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom); Li, Baojiu, E-mail: matteoc@dark-cosmology.dk, E-mail: drapetti@dark-cosmology.dk, E-mail: llo@roe.ac.uk, E-mail: baojiu.li@durham.ac.uk [Institute for Computational Cosmology, Department of Physics, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom)

    2016-12-01

    We refine the mass and environment dependent spherical collapse model of chameleon f ( R ) gravity by calibrating a phenomenological correction inspired by the parameterized post-Friedmann framework against high-resolution N -body simulations. We employ our method to predict the corresponding modified halo mass function, and provide fitting formulas to calculate the enhancement of the f ( R ) halo abundance with respect to that of General Relativity (GR) within a precision of ∼< 5% from the results obtained in the simulations. Similar accuracy can be achieved for the full f ( R ) mass function on the condition that the modeling of the reference GR abundance of halos is accurate at the percent level. We use our fits to forecast constraints on the additional scalar degree of freedom of the theory, finding that upper bounds competitive with current Solar System tests are within reach of cluster number count analyses from ongoing and upcoming surveys at much larger scales. Importantly, the flexibility of our method allows also for this to be applied to other scalar-tensor theories characterized by a mass and environment dependent spherical collapse.

  3. ROCK I Has More Accurate Prognostic Value than MET in Predicting Patient Survival in Colorectal Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jian; Bharadwaj, Shruthi S; Guzman, Grace; Vishnubhotla, Ramana; Glover, Sarah C

    2015-06-01

    Colorectal cancer remains the second leading cause of death in the United States despite improvements in incidence rates and advancements in screening. The present study evaluated the prognostic value of two tumor markers, MET and ROCK I, which have been noted in other cancers to provide more accurate prognoses of patient outcomes than tumor staging alone. We constructed a tissue microarray from surgical specimens of adenocarcinomas from 108 colorectal cancer patients. Using immunohistochemistry, we examined the expression levels of tumor markers MET and ROCK I, with a pathologist blinded to patient identities and clinical outcomes providing the scoring of MET and ROCK I expression. We then used retrospective analysis of patients' survival data to provide correlations with expression levels of MET and ROCK I. Both MET and ROCK I were significantly over-expressed in colorectal cancer tissues, relative to the unaffected adjacent mucosa. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that patients' 5-year survival was inversely correlated with levels of expression of ROCK I. In contrast, MET was less strongly correlated with five-year survival. ROCK I provides better efficacy in predicting patient outcomes, compared to either tumor staging or MET expression. As a result, ROCK I may provide a less invasive method of assessing patient prognoses and directing therapeutic interventions. Copyright© 2015 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

  4. Fast and Accurate Prediction of Numerical Relativity Waveforms from Binary Black Hole Coalescences Using Surrogate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott E; Galley, Chad R; Szilágyi, Béla; Scheel, Mark A; Tiglio, Manuel; Hemberger, Daniel A

    2015-09-18

    Simulating a binary black hole coalescence by solving Einstein's equations is computationally expensive, requiring days to months of supercomputing time. Using reduced order modeling techniques, we construct an accurate surrogate model, which is evaluated in a millisecond to a second, for numerical relativity (NR) waveforms from nonspinning binary black hole coalescences with mass ratios in [1, 10] and durations corresponding to about 15 orbits before merger. We assess the model's uncertainty and show that our modeling strategy predicts NR waveforms not used for the surrogate's training with errors nearly as small as the numerical error of the NR code. Our model includes all spherical-harmonic _{-2}Y_{ℓm} waveform modes resolved by the NR code up to ℓ=8. We compare our surrogate model to effective one body waveforms from 50M_{⊙} to 300M_{⊙} for advanced LIGO detectors and find that the surrogate is always more faithful (by at least an order of magnitude in most cases).

  5. Absolute Hounsfield unit measurement on noncontrast computed tomography cannot accurately predict struvite stone composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchini, Giovanni Scala; Gebreselassie, Surafel; Liu, Xiaobo; Pynadath, Cindy; Snyder, Grace; Monga, Manoj

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of our study was to determine, in vivo, whether single-energy noncontrast computed tomography (NCCT) can accurately predict the presence/percentage of struvite stone composition. We retrospectively searched for all patients with struvite components on stone composition analysis between January 2008 and March 2012. Inclusion criteria were NCCT prior to stone analysis and stone size ≥4 mm. A single urologist, blinded to stone composition, reviewed all NCCT to acquire stone location, dimensions, and Hounsfield unit (HU). HU density (HUD) was calculated by dividing mean HU by the stone's largest transverse diameter. Stone analysis was performed via Fourier transform infrared spectrometry. Independent sample Student's t-test and analysis of variance (ANOVA) were used to compare HU/HUD among groups. Spearman's correlation test was used to determine the correlation between HU and stone size and also HU/HUD to % of each component within the stone. Significance was considered if pR=0.017; p=0.912) and negative with HUD (R=-0.20; p=0.898). Overall, 3 (6.8%) had stones (n=5) with other miscellaneous stones (n=39), no difference was found for HU (p=0.09) but HUD was significantly lower for pure stones (27.9±23.6 v 72.5±55.9, respectively; p=0.006). Again, significant overlaps were seen. Pure struvite stones have significantly lower HUD than mixed struvite stones, but overlap exists. A low HUD may increase the suspicion for a pure struvite calculus.

  6. Unilateral Prostate Cancer Cannot be Accurately Predicted in Low-Risk Patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isbarn, Hendrik; Karakiewicz, Pierre I.; Vogel, Susanne

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: Hemiablative therapy (HAT) is increasing in popularity for treatment of patients with low-risk prostate cancer (PCa). The validity of this therapeutic modality, which exclusively treats PCa within a single prostate lobe, rests on accurate staging. We tested the accuracy of unilaterally unremarkable biopsy findings in cases of low-risk PCa patients who are potential candidates for HAT. Methods and Materials: The study population consisted of 243 men with clinical stage ≤T2a, a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration of <10 ng/ml, a biopsy-proven Gleason sum of ≤6, and a maximum of 2 ipsilateral positive biopsy results out of 10 or more cores. All men underwent a radical prostatectomy, and pathology stage was used as the gold standard. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were tested for significant predictors of unilateral, organ-confined PCa. These predictors consisted of PSA, %fPSA (defined as the quotient of free [uncomplexed] PSA divided by the total PSA), clinical stage (T2a vs. T1c), gland volume, and number of positive biopsy cores (2 vs. 1). Results: Despite unilateral stage at biopsy, bilateral or even non-organ-confined PCa was reported in 64% of all patients. In multivariable analyses, no variable could clearly and independently predict the presence of unilateral PCa. This was reflected in an overall accuracy of 58% (95% confidence interval, 50.6-65.8%). Conclusions: Two-thirds of patients with unilateral low-risk PCa, confirmed by clinical stage and biopsy findings, have bilateral or non-organ-confined PCa at radical prostatectomy. This alarming finding questions the safety and validity of HAT.

  7. Large arterial occlusive strokes as a medical emergency: need to accurately predict clot location.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanacker, Peter; Faouzi, Mohamed; Eskandari, Ashraf; Maeder, Philippe; Meuli, Reto; Michel, Patrik

    2017-10-01

    Endovascular treatment for acute ischemic stroke with a large intracranial occlusion was recently shown to be effective. Timely knowledge of the presence, site, and extent of arterial occlusions in the ischemic territory has the potential to influence patient selection for endovascular treatment. We aimed to find predictors of large vessel occlusive strokes, on the basis of available demographic, clinical, radiological, and laboratory data in the emergency setting. Patients enrolled in ASTRAL registry with acute ischemic stroke and computed tomography (CT)-angiography within 12 h of stroke onset were selected and categorized according to occlusion site. Easily accessible variables were used in a multivariate analysis. Of 1645 patients enrolled, a significant proportion (46.2%) had a large vessel occlusion in the ischemic territory. The main clinical predictors of any arterial occlusion were in-hospital stroke [odd ratios (OR) 2.1, 95% confidence interval 1.4-3.1], higher initial National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (OR 1.1, 1.1-1.2), presence of visual field defects (OR 1.9, 1.3-2.6), dysarthria (OR 1.4, 1.0-1.9), or hemineglect (OR 2.0, 1.4-2.8) at admission and atrial fibrillation (OR 1.7, 1.2-2.3). Further, the following radiological predictors were identified: time-to-imaging (OR 0.9, 0.9-1.0), early ischemic changes (OR 2.3, 1.7-3.2), and silent lesions on CT (OR 0.7, 0.5-1.0). The area under curve for this analysis was 0.85. Looking at different occlusion sites, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale and early ischemic changes on CT were independent predictors in all subgroups. Neurological deficits, stroke risk factors, and CT findings accurately identify acute ischemic stroke patients at risk of symptomatic vessel occlusion. Predicting the presence of these occlusions may impact emergency stroke care in regions with limited access to noninvasive vascular imaging.

  8. Combining structural modeling with ensemble machine learning to accurately predict protein fold stability and binding affinity effects upon mutation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niklas Berliner

    Full Text Available Advances in sequencing have led to a rapid accumulation of mutations, some of which are associated with diseases. However, to draw mechanistic conclusions, a biochemical understanding of these mutations is necessary. For coding mutations, accurate prediction of significant changes in either the stability of proteins or their affinity to their binding partners is required. Traditional methods have used semi-empirical force fields, while newer methods employ machine learning of sequence and structural features. Here, we show how combining both of these approaches leads to a marked boost in accuracy. We introduce ELASPIC, a novel ensemble machine learning approach that is able to predict stability effects upon mutation in both, domain cores and domain-domain interfaces. We combine semi-empirical energy terms, sequence conservation, and a wide variety of molecular details with a Stochastic Gradient Boosting of Decision Trees (SGB-DT algorithm. The accuracy of our predictions surpasses existing methods by a considerable margin, achieving correlation coefficients of 0.77 for stability, and 0.75 for affinity predictions. Notably, we integrated homology modeling to enable proteome-wide prediction and show that accurate prediction on modeled structures is possible. Lastly, ELASPIC showed significant differences between various types of disease-associated mutations, as well as between disease and common neutral mutations. Unlike pure sequence-based prediction methods that try to predict phenotypic effects of mutations, our predictions unravel the molecular details governing the protein instability, and help us better understand the molecular causes of diseases.

  9. Towards Accurate Prediction of Unbalance Response, Oil Whirl and Oil Whip of Flexible Rotors Supported by Hydrodynamic Bearings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rob Eling

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Journal bearings are used to support rotors in a wide range of applications. In order to ensure reliable operation, accurate analyses of these rotor-bearing systems are crucial. Coupled analysis of the rotor and the journal bearing is essential in the case that the rotor is flexible. The accuracy of prediction of the model at hand depends on its comprehensiveness. In this study, we construct three bearing models of increasing modeling comprehensiveness and use these to predict the response of two different rotor-bearing systems. The main goal is to evaluate the correlation with measurement data as a function of modeling comprehensiveness: 1D versus 2D pressure prediction, distributed versus lumped thermal model, Newtonian versus non-Newtonian fluid description and non-mass-conservative versus mass-conservative cavitation description. We conclude that all three models predict the existence of critical speeds and whirl for both rotor-bearing systems. However, the two more comprehensive models in general show better correlation with measurement data in terms of frequency and amplitude. Furthermore, we conclude that a thermal network model comprising temperature predictions of the bearing surroundings is essential to obtain accurate predictions. The results of this study aid in developing accurate and computationally-efficient models of flexible rotors supported by plain journal bearings.

  10. Heterogeneity of long-history migration predicts emotion recognition accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Adrienne; Rychlowska, Magdalena; Niedenthal, Paula M

    2016-06-01

    Recent work (Rychlowska et al., 2015) demonstrated the power of a relatively new cultural dimension, historical heterogeneity, in predicting cultural differences in the endorsement of emotion expression norms. Historical heterogeneity describes the number of source countries that have contributed to a country's present-day population over the last 500 years. People in cultures originating from a large number of source countries may have historically benefited from greater and clearer emotional expressivity, because they lacked a common language and well-established social norms. We therefore hypothesized that in addition to endorsing more expressive display rules, individuals from heterogeneous cultures will also produce facial expressions that are easier to recognize by people from other cultures. By reanalyzing cross-cultural emotion recognition data from 92 papers and 82 cultures, we show that emotion expressions of people from heterogeneous cultures are more easily recognized by observers from other cultures than are the expressions produced in homogeneous cultures. Heterogeneity influences expression recognition rates alongside the individualism-collectivism of the perceivers' culture, as more individualistic cultures were more accurate in emotion judgments than collectivistic cultures. This work reveals the present-day behavioral consequences of long-term historical migration patterns and demonstrates the predictive power of historical heterogeneity. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Accurate diffraction data integration by the EVAL15 profile prediction method : Application in chemical and biological crystallography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xian, X.

    2009-01-01

    Accurate integration of reflection intensities plays an essential role in structure determination of the crystallized compound. A new diffraction data integration method, EVAL15, is presented in this thesis. This method uses the principle of general impacts to predict ab inito three-dimensional

  12. Searching for an Accurate Marker-Based Prediction of an Individual Quantitative Trait in Molecular Plant Breeding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yong-Bi; Yang, Mo-Hua; Zeng, Fangqin; Biligetu, Bill

    2017-01-01

    Molecular plant breeding with the aid of molecular markers has played an important role in modern plant breeding over the last two decades. Many marker-based predictions for quantitative traits have been made to enhance parental selection, but the trait prediction accuracy remains generally low, even with the aid of dense, genome-wide SNP markers. To search for more accurate trait-specific prediction with informative SNP markers, we conducted a literature review on the prediction issues in molecular plant breeding and on the applicability of an RNA-Seq technique for developing function-associated specific trait (FAST) SNP markers. To understand whether and how FAST SNP markers could enhance trait prediction, we also performed a theoretical reasoning on the effectiveness of these markers in a trait-specific prediction, and verified the reasoning through computer simulation. To the end, the search yielded an alternative to regular genomic selection with FAST SNP markers that could be explored to achieve more accurate trait-specific prediction. Continuous search for better alternatives is encouraged to enhance marker-based predictions for an individual quantitative trait in molecular plant breeding. PMID:28729875

  13. Searching for an Accurate Marker-Based Prediction of an Individual Quantitative Trait in Molecular Plant Breeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong-Bi Fu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Molecular plant breeding with the aid of molecular markers has played an important role in modern plant breeding over the last two decades. Many marker-based predictions for quantitative traits have been made to enhance parental selection, but the trait prediction accuracy remains generally low, even with the aid of dense, genome-wide SNP markers. To search for more accurate trait-specific prediction with informative SNP markers, we conducted a literature review on the prediction issues in molecular plant breeding and on the applicability of an RNA-Seq technique for developing function-associated specific trait (FAST SNP markers. To understand whether and how FAST SNP markers could enhance trait prediction, we also performed a theoretical reasoning on the effectiveness of these markers in a trait-specific prediction, and verified the reasoning through computer simulation. To the end, the search yielded an alternative to regular genomic selection with FAST SNP markers that could be explored to achieve more accurate trait-specific prediction. Continuous search for better alternatives is encouraged to enhance marker-based predictions for an individual quantitative trait in molecular plant breeding.

  14. Searching for an Accurate Marker-Based Prediction of an Individual Quantitative Trait in Molecular Plant Breeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yong-Bi; Yang, Mo-Hua; Zeng, Fangqin; Biligetu, Bill

    2017-01-01

    Molecular plant breeding with the aid of molecular markers has played an important role in modern plant breeding over the last two decades. Many marker-based predictions for quantitative traits have been made to enhance parental selection, but the trait prediction accuracy remains generally low, even with the aid of dense, genome-wide SNP markers. To search for more accurate trait-specific prediction with informative SNP markers, we conducted a literature review on the prediction issues in molecular plant breeding and on the applicability of an RNA-Seq technique for developing function-associated specific trait (FAST) SNP markers. To understand whether and how FAST SNP markers could enhance trait prediction, we also performed a theoretical reasoning on the effectiveness of these markers in a trait-specific prediction, and verified the reasoning through computer simulation. To the end, the search yielded an alternative to regular genomic selection with FAST SNP markers that could be explored to achieve more accurate trait-specific prediction. Continuous search for better alternatives is encouraged to enhance marker-based predictions for an individual quantitative trait in molecular plant breeding.

  15. Towards more accurate wind and solar power prediction by improving NWP model physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, Andrea; Köhler, Carmen; von Schumann, Jonas; Ritter, Bodo

    2014-05-01

    The growing importance and successive expansion of renewable energies raise new challenges for decision makers, economists, transmission system operators, scientists and many more. In this interdisciplinary field, the role of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is to reduce the errors and provide an a priori estimate of remaining uncertainties associated with the large share of weather-dependent power sources. For this purpose it is essential to optimize NWP model forecasts with respect to those prognostic variables which are relevant for wind and solar power plants. An improved weather forecast serves as the basis for a sophisticated power forecasts. Consequently, a well-timed energy trading on the stock market, and electrical grid stability can be maintained. The German Weather Service (DWD) currently is involved with two projects concerning research in the field of renewable energy, namely ORKA*) and EWeLiNE**). Whereas the latter is in collaboration with the Fraunhofer Institute (IWES), the project ORKA is led by energy & meteo systems (emsys). Both cooperate with German transmission system operators. The goal of the projects is to improve wind and photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts by combining optimized NWP and enhanced power forecast models. In this context, the German Weather Service aims to improve its model system, including the ensemble forecasting system, by working on data assimilation, model physics and statistical post processing. This presentation is focused on the identification of critical weather situations and the associated errors in the German regional NWP model COSMO-DE. First steps leading to improved physical parameterization schemes within the NWP-model are presented. Wind mast measurements reaching up to 200 m height above ground are used for the estimation of the (NWP) wind forecast error at heights relevant for wind energy plants. One particular problem is the daily cycle in wind speed. The transition from stable stratification during

  16. A machine learning approach to the accurate prediction of multi-leaf collimator positional errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Joel N. K.; Park, Jong Min; Park, So-Yeon; In Park, Jong; Choi, Yunseok; Ye, Sung-Joon

    2016-03-01

    Discrepancies between planned and delivered movements of multi-leaf collimators (MLCs) are an important source of errors in dose distributions during radiotherapy. In this work we used machine learning techniques to train models to predict these discrepancies, assessed the accuracy of the model predictions, and examined the impact these errors have on quality assurance (QA) procedures and dosimetry. Predictive leaf motion parameters for the models were calculated from the plan files, such as leaf position and velocity, whether the leaf was moving towards or away from the isocenter of the MLC, and many others. Differences in positions between synchronized DICOM-RT planning files and DynaLog files reported during QA delivery were used as a target response for training of the models. The final model is capable of predicting MLC positions during delivery to a high degree of accuracy. For moving MLC leaves, predicted positions were shown to be significantly closer to delivered positions than were planned positions. By incorporating predicted positions into dose calculations in the TPS, increases were shown in gamma passing rates against measured dose distributions recorded during QA delivery. For instance, head and neck plans with 1%/2 mm gamma criteria had an average increase in passing rate of 4.17% (SD  =  1.54%). This indicates that the inclusion of predictions during dose calculation leads to a more realistic representation of plan delivery. To assess impact on the patient, dose volumetric histograms (DVH) using delivered positions were calculated for comparison with planned and predicted DVHs. In all cases, predicted dose volumetric parameters were in closer agreement to the delivered parameters than were the planned parameters, particularly for organs at risk on the periphery of the treatment area. By incorporating the predicted positions into the TPS, the treatment planner is given a more realistic view of the dose distribution as it will truly be

  17. Dynamics of Flexible MLI-type Debris for Accurate Orbit Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    debris for accurate propagation under perturbations”, in Proceedings of 65th International Astronautical Congress (IAC 2014), Toronto, Canada , 2014...Surveillance Network ( SSN ) was able to detect more than 900 pieces of debris that were at risk to damage operational spacecraft. In February 10, 2009...created two large debris clouds and the SSN reported that 382 pieces of debris from Iridium 33 and 893 pieces from Cosmos 2251 were created, and

  18. Accurate microRNA target prediction correlates with protein repression levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simossis Victor A

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background MicroRNAs are small endogenously expressed non-coding RNA molecules that regulate target gene expression through translation repression or messenger RNA degradation. MicroRNA regulation is performed through pairing of the microRNA to sites in the messenger RNA of protein coding genes. Since experimental identification of miRNA target genes poses difficulties, computational microRNA target prediction is one of the key means in deciphering the role of microRNAs in development and disease. Results DIANA-microT 3.0 is an algorithm for microRNA target prediction which is based on several parameters calculated individually for each microRNA and combines conserved and non-conserved microRNA recognition elements into a final prediction score, which correlates with protein production fold change. Specifically, for each predicted interaction the program reports a signal to noise ratio and a precision score which can be used as an indication of the false positive rate of the prediction. Conclusion Recently, several computational target prediction programs were benchmarked based on a set of microRNA target genes identified by the pSILAC method. In this assessment DIANA-microT 3.0 was found to achieve the highest precision among the most widely used microRNA target prediction programs reaching approximately 66%. The DIANA-microT 3.0 prediction results are available online in a user friendly web server at http://www.microrna.gr/microT

  19. Sensor Data Fusion for Accurate Cloud Presence Prediction Using Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesse S. Jin

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Sensor data fusion technology can be used to best extract useful information from multiple sensor observations. It has been widely applied in various applications such as target tracking, surveillance, robot navigation, signal and image processing. This paper introduces a novel data fusion approach in a multiple radiation sensor environment using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The methodology is used to predict cloud presence based on the inputs of radiation sensors. Different radiation data have been used for the cloud prediction. The potential application areas of the algorithm include renewable power for virtual power station where the prediction of cloud presence is the most challenging issue for its photovoltaic output. The algorithm is validated by comparing the predicted cloud presence with the corresponding sunshine occurrence data that were recorded as the benchmark. Our experiments have indicated that comparing to the approaches using individual sensors, the proposed data fusion approach can increase correct rate of cloud prediction by ten percent, and decrease unknown rate of cloud prediction by twenty three percent.

  20. Do dual-route models accurately predict reading and spelling performance in individuals with acquired alexia and agraphia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapcsak, Steven Z; Henry, Maya L; Teague, Sommer L; Carnahan, Susan D; Beeson, Pélagie M

    2007-06-18

    Coltheart and co-workers [Castles, A., Bates, T. C., & Coltheart, M. (2006). John Marshall and the developmental dyslexias. Aphasiology, 20, 871-892; Coltheart, M., Rastle, K., Perry, C., Langdon, R., & Ziegler, J. (2001). DRC: A dual route cascaded model of visual word recognition and reading aloud. Psychological Review, 108, 204-256] have demonstrated that an equation derived from dual-route theory accurately predicts reading performance in young normal readers and in children with reading impairment due to developmental dyslexia or stroke. In this paper, we present evidence that the dual-route equation and a related multiple regression model also accurately predict both reading and spelling performance in adult neurological patients with acquired alexia and agraphia. These findings provide empirical support for dual-route theories of written language processing.

  1. NESmapper: accurate prediction of leucine-rich nuclear export signals using activity-based profiles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shunichi Kosugi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The nuclear export of proteins is regulated largely through the exportin/CRM1 pathway, which involves the specific recognition of leucine-rich nuclear export signals (NESs in the cargo proteins, and modulates nuclear-cytoplasmic protein shuttling by antagonizing the nuclear import activity mediated by importins and the nuclear import signal (NLS. Although the prediction of NESs can help to define proteins that undergo regulated nuclear export, current methods of predicting NESs, including computational tools and consensus-sequence-based searches, have limited accuracy, especially in terms of their specificity. We found that each residue within an NES largely contributes independently and additively to the entire nuclear export activity. We created activity-based profiles of all classes of NESs with a comprehensive mutational analysis in mammalian cells. The profiles highlight a number of specific activity-affecting residues not only at the conserved hydrophobic positions but also in the linker and flanking regions. We then developed a computational tool, NESmapper, to predict NESs by using profiles that had been further optimized by training and combining the amino acid properties of the NES-flanking regions. This tool successfully reduced the considerable number of false positives, and the overall prediction accuracy was higher than that of other methods, including NESsential and Wregex. This profile-based prediction strategy is a reliable way to identify functional protein motifs. NESmapper is available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/nesmapper.

  2. Accurate prediction of the ammonia probes of a variable proton-to-electron mass ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, A.; Yurchenko, S. N.; Thiel, W.; Špirko, V.

    2015-07-01

    A comprehensive study of the mass sensitivity of the vibration-rotation-inversion transitions of 14NH3, 15NH3, 14ND3 and 15ND3 is carried out variationally using the TROVE approach. Variational calculations are robust and accurate, offering a new way to compute sensitivity coefficients. Particular attention is paid to the Δk = ±3 transitions between the accidentally coinciding rotation-inversion energy levels of the ν2 = 0+, 0-, 1+ and 1- states, and the inversion transitions in the ν4 = 1 state affected by the `giant' l-type doubling effect. These transitions exhibit highly anomalous sensitivities, thus appearing as promising probes of a possible cosmological variation of the proton-to-electron mass ratio μ. Moreover, a simultaneous comparison of the calculated sensitivities reveals a sizeable isotopic dependence which could aid an exclusive ammonia detection.

  3. Are predictive equations for estimating resting energy expenditure accurate in Asian Indian male weightlifters?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mini Joseph

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The accuracy of existing predictive equations to determine the resting energy expenditure (REE of professional weightlifters remains scarcely studied. Our study aimed at assessing the REE of male Asian Indian weightlifters with indirect calorimetry and to compare the measured REE (mREE with published equations. A new equation using potential anthropometric variables to predict REE was also evaluated. Materials and Methods: REE was measured on 30 male professional weightlifters aged between 17 and 28 years using indirect calorimetry and compared with the eight formulas predicted by Harris–Benedicts, Mifflin-St. Jeor, FAO/WHO/UNU, ICMR, Cunninghams, Owen, Katch-McArdle, and Nelson. Pearson correlation coefficient, intraclass correlation coefficient, and multiple linear regression analysis were carried out to study the agreement between the different methods, association with anthropometric variables, and to formulate a new prediction equation for this population. Results: Pearson correlation coefficients between mREE and the anthropometric variables showed positive significance with suprailiac skinfold thickness, lean body mass (LBM, waist circumference, hip circumference, bone mineral mass, and body mass. All eight predictive equations underestimated the REE of the weightlifters when compared with the mREE. The highest mean difference was 636 kcal/day (Owen, 1986 and the lowest difference was 375 kcal/day (Cunninghams, 1980. Multiple linear regression done stepwise showed that LBM was the only significant determinant of REE in this group of sportspersons. A new equation using LBM as the independent variable for calculating REE was computed. REE for weightlifters = −164.065 + 0.039 (LBM (confidence interval −1122.984, 794.854]. This new equation reduced the mean difference with mREE by 2.36 + 369.15 kcal/day (standard error = 67.40. Conclusion: The significant finding of this study was that all the prediction equations

  4. A machine learning approach to the accurate prediction of monitor units for a compact proton machine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Baozhou; Lam, Dao; Yang, Deshan; Grantham, Kevin; Zhang, Tiezhi; Mutic, Sasa; Zhao, Tianyu

    2018-05-01

    Clinical treatment planning systems for proton therapy currently do not calculate monitor units (MUs) in passive scatter proton therapy due to the complexity of the beam delivery systems. Physical phantom measurements are commonly employed to determine the field-specific output factors (OFs) but are often subject to limited machine time, measurement uncertainties and intensive labor. In this study, a machine learning-based approach was developed to predict output (cGy/MU) and derive MUs, incorporating the dependencies on gantry angle and field size for a single-room proton therapy system. The goal of this study was to develop a secondary check tool for OF measurements and eventually eliminate patient-specific OF measurements. The OFs of 1754 fields previously measured in a water phantom with calibrated ionization chambers and electrometers for patient-specific fields with various range and modulation width combinations for 23 options were included in this study. The training data sets for machine learning models in three different methods (Random Forest, XGBoost and Cubist) included 1431 (~81%) OFs. Ten-fold cross-validation was used to prevent "overfitting" and to validate each model. The remaining 323 (~19%) OFs were used to test the trained models. The difference between the measured and predicted values from machine learning models was analyzed. Model prediction accuracy was also compared with that of the semi-empirical model developed by Kooy (Phys. Med. Biol. 50, 2005). Additionally, gantry angle dependence of OFs was measured for three groups of options categorized on the selection of the second scatters. Field size dependence of OFs was investigated for the measurements with and without patient-specific apertures. All three machine learning methods showed higher accuracy than the semi-empirical model which shows considerably large discrepancy of up to 7.7% for the treatment fields with full range and full modulation width. The Cubist-based solution

  5. Safe surgery: how accurate are we at predicting intra-operative blood loss?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    2012-02-01

    Introduction Preoperative estimation of intra-operative blood loss by both anaesthetist and operating surgeon is a criterion of the World Health Organization\\'s surgical safety checklist. The checklist requires specific preoperative planning when anticipated blood loss is greater than 500 mL. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of surgeons and anaesthetists at predicting intra-operative blood loss. Methods A 6-week prospective study of intermediate and major operations in an academic medical centre was performed. An independent observer interviewed surgical and anaesthetic consultants and registrars, preoperatively asking each to predict expected blood loss in millilitre. Intra-operative blood loss was measured and compared with these predictions. Parameters including the use of anticoagulation and anti-platelet therapy as well as intra-operative hypothermia and hypotension were recorded. Results One hundred sixty-eight operations were included in the study, including 142 elective and 26 emergency operations. Blood loss was predicted to within 500 mL of measured blood loss in 89% of cases. Consultant surgeons tended to underestimate blood loss, doing so in 43% of all cases, while consultant anaesthetists were more likely to overestimate (60% of all operations). Twelve patients (7%) had underestimation of blood loss of more than 500 mL by both surgeon and anaesthetist. Thirty per cent (n = 6\\/20) of patients requiring transfusion of a blood product within 24 hours of surgery had blood loss underestimated by more than 500 mL by both surgeon and anaesthetist. There was no significant difference in prediction between patients on anti-platelet or anticoagulation therapy preoperatively and those not on the said therapies. Conclusion Predicted intra-operative blood loss was within 500 mL of measured blood loss in 89% of operations. In 30% of patients who ultimately receive a blood transfusion, both the surgeon and anaesthetist significantly underestimate

  6. Fast and accurate covalent bond predictions using perturbation theory in chemical space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Kuang-Yu; von Lilienfeld, Anatole

    I will discuss the predictive accuracy of perturbation theory based estimates of changes in covalent bonding due to linear alchemical interpolations among systems of different chemical composition. We have investigated single, double, and triple bonds occurring in small sets of iso-valence-electronic molecular species with elements drawn from second to fourth rows in the p-block of the periodic table. Numerical evidence suggests that first order estimates of covalent bonding potentials can achieve chemical accuracy (within 1 kcal/mol) if the alchemical interpolation is vertical (fixed geometry) among chemical elements from third and fourth row of the periodic table. When applied to nonbonded systems of molecular dimers or solids such as III-V semiconductors, alanates, alkali halides, and transition metals, similar observations hold, enabling rapid predictions of van der Waals energies, defect energies, band-structures, crystal structures, and lattice constants.

  7. Beating Heart Motion Accurate Prediction Method Based on Interactive Multiple Model: An Information Fusion Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Weihong; Yu, Yang

    2017-01-01

    Robot-assisted motion compensated beating heart surgery has the advantage over the conventional Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG) in terms of reduced trauma to the surrounding structures that leads to shortened recovery time. The severe nonlinear and diverse nature of irregular heart rhythm causes enormous difficulty for the robot to realize the clinic requirements, especially under arrhythmias. In this paper, we propose a fusion prediction framework based on Interactive Multiple Model (IMM) estimator, allowing each model to cover a distinguishing feature of the heart motion in underlying dynamics. We find that, at normal state, the nonlinearity of the heart motion with slow time-variant changing dominates the beating process. When an arrhythmia occurs, the irregularity mode, the fast uncertainties with random patterns become the leading factor of the heart motion. We deal with prediction problem in the case of arrhythmias by estimating the state with two behavior modes which can adaptively “switch” from one to the other. Also, we employed the signal quality index to adaptively determine the switch transition probability in the framework of IMM. We conduct comparative experiments to evaluate the proposed approach with four distinguished datasets. The test results indicate that the new proposed approach reduces prediction errors significantly. PMID:29124062

  8. Beating Heart Motion Accurate Prediction Method Based on Interactive Multiple Model: An Information Fusion Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Liang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Robot-assisted motion compensated beating heart surgery has the advantage over the conventional Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG in terms of reduced trauma to the surrounding structures that leads to shortened recovery time. The severe nonlinear and diverse nature of irregular heart rhythm causes enormous difficulty for the robot to realize the clinic requirements, especially under arrhythmias. In this paper, we propose a fusion prediction framework based on Interactive Multiple Model (IMM estimator, allowing each model to cover a distinguishing feature of the heart motion in underlying dynamics. We find that, at normal state, the nonlinearity of the heart motion with slow time-variant changing dominates the beating process. When an arrhythmia occurs, the irregularity mode, the fast uncertainties with random patterns become the leading factor of the heart motion. We deal with prediction problem in the case of arrhythmias by estimating the state with two behavior modes which can adaptively “switch” from one to the other. Also, we employed the signal quality index to adaptively determine the switch transition probability in the framework of IMM. We conduct comparative experiments to evaluate the proposed approach with four distinguished datasets. The test results indicate that the new proposed approach reduces prediction errors significantly.

  9. Meta-analytic approach to the accurate prediction of secreted virulence effectors in gram-negative bacteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sato Yoshiharu

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many pathogens use a type III secretion system to translocate virulence proteins (called effectors in order to adapt to the host environment. To date, many prediction tools for effector identification have been developed. However, these tools are insufficiently accurate for producing a list of putative effectors that can be applied directly for labor-intensive experimental verification. This also suggests that important features of effectors have yet to be fully characterized. Results In this study, we have constructed an accurate approach to predicting secreted virulence effectors from Gram-negative bacteria. This consists of a support vector machine-based discriminant analysis followed by a simple criteria-based filtering. The accuracy was assessed by estimating the average number of true positives in the top-20 ranking in the genome-wide screening. In the validation, 10 sets of 20 training and 20 testing examples were randomly selected from 40 known effectors of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium LT2. On average, the SVM portion of our system predicted 9.7 true positives from 20 testing examples in the top-20 of the prediction. Removal of the N-terminal instability, codon adaptation index and ProtParam indices decreased the score to 7.6, 8.9 and 7.9, respectively. These discrimination features suggested that the following characteristics of effectors had been uncovered: unstable N-terminus, non-optimal codon usage, hydrophilic, and less aliphathic. The secondary filtering process represented by coexpression analysis and domain distribution analysis further refined the average true positive counts to 12.3. We further confirmed that our system can correctly predict known effectors of P. syringae DC3000, strongly indicating its feasibility. Conclusions We have successfully developed an accurate prediction system for screening effectors on a genome-wide scale. We confirmed the accuracy of our system by external validation

  10. Predictive performance of universal termination of resuscitation rules in an Asian community: are they accurate enough?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Wen-Chu; Ko, Patrick Chow-In; Chang, Anna Marie; Liu, Sot Shih-Hung; Wang, Hui-Chih; Yang, Chih-Wei; Hsieh, Ming-Ju; Chen, Shey-Ying; Lai, Mei-Shu; Ma, Matthew Huei-Ming

    2015-04-01

    Prehospital termination of resuscitation (TOR) rules have not been widely validated outside of Western countries. This study evaluated the performance of TOR rules in an Asian metropolitan with a mixed-tier emergency medical service (EMS). We analysed the Utstein registry of adult, non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCAs) in Taipei to test the performance of TOR rules for advanced life support (ALS) or basic life support (BLS) providers. ALS and BLS-TOR rules were tested in OHCAs among three subgroups: (1) resuscitated by ALS, (2) by BLS and (3) by mixed ALS and BLS. Outcome definition was in-hospital death. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value and decreased transport rate (DTR) among various provider combinations were calculated. Of the 3489 OHCAs included, 240 were resuscitated by ALS, 1727 by BLS and 1522 by ALS and BLS. Overall survival to hospital discharge was 197 patients (5.6%). Specificity and PPV of ALS-TOR and BLS-TOR for identifying death ranged from 70.7% to 81.8% and 95.1% to 98.1%, respectively. Applying the TOR rules would have a DTR of 34.2-63.9%. BLS rules had better predictive accuracy and DTR than ALS rules among all subgroups. Application of the ALS and BLS TOR rules would have decreased OHCA transported to the hospital, and BLS rules are reasonable as the universal criteria in a mixed-tier EMS. However, 1.9-4.9% of those who survived would be misclassified as non-survivors, raising concern of compromising patient safety for the implementation of the rules. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  11. Can magnetic resonance imaging accurately predict concordant pain provocation during provocative disc injection?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Chang Ho; Kim, Yun Hwan; Kim, Jung Hyuk; Chung, Kyoo Byung; Sung, Deuk Jae; Lee, Sang-Heon; Derby, Richard

    2009-01-01

    To correlate magnetic resonance (MR) image findings with pain response by provocation discography in patients with discogenic low back pain, with an emphasis on the combination analysis of a high intensity zone (HIZ) and disc contour abnormalities. Sixty-two patients (aged 17-68 years) with axial low back pain that was likely to be disc related underwent lumbar discography (178 discs tested). The MR images were evaluated for disc degeneration, disc contour abnormalities, HIZ, and endplate abnormalities. Based on the combination of an HIZ and disc contour abnormalities, four classes were determined: (1) normal or bulging disc without HIZ; (2) normal or bulging disc with HIZ; (3) disc protrusion without HIZ; (4) disc protrusion with HIZ. These MR image findings and a new combined MR classification were analyzed in the base of concordant pain determined by discography. Disc protrusion with HIZ [sensitivity 45.5%; specificity 97.8%; positive predictive value (PPV), 87.0%] correlated significantly with concordant pain provocation (P < 0.01). A normal or bulging disc with HIZ was not associated with reproduction of pain. Disc degeneration (sensitivity 95.4%; specificity 38.8%; PPV 33.9%), disc protrusion (sensitivity 68.2%; specificity 80.6%; PPV 53.6%), and HIZ (sensitivity 56.8%; specificity 83.6%; PPV 53.2%) were not helpful in the identification of a disc with concordant pain. The proposed MR classification is useful to predict a disc with concordant pain. Disc protrusion with HIZ on MR imaging predicted positive discography in patients with discogenic low back pain. (orig.)

  12. Does resident ranking during recruitment accurately predict subsequent performance as a surgical resident?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryer, Jonathan P; Corcoran, Noreen; George, Brian; Wang, Ed; Darosa, Debra

    2012-01-01

    While the primary goal of ranking applicants for surgical residency training positions is to identify the candidates who will subsequently perform best as surgical residents, the effectiveness of the ranking process has not been adequately studied. We evaluated our general surgery resident recruitment process between 2001 and 2011 inclusive, to determine if our recruitment ranking parameters effectively predicted subsequent resident performance. We identified 3 candidate ranking parameters (United States Medical Licensing Examination [USMLE] Step 1 score, unadjusted ranking score [URS], and final adjusted ranking [FAR]), and 4 resident performance parameters (American Board of Surgery In-Training Examination [ABSITE] score, PGY1 resident evaluation grade [REG], overall REG, and independent faculty rating ranking [IFRR]), and assessed whether the former were predictive of the latter. Analyses utilized Spearman correlation coefficient. We found that the URS, which is based on objective and criterion based parameters, was a better predictor of subsequent performance than the FAR, which is a modification of the URS based on subsequent determinations of the resident selection committee. USMLE score was a reliable predictor of ABSITE scores only. However, when we compared our worst residence performances with the performances of the other residents in this evaluation, the data did not produce convincing evidence that poor resident performances could be reliably predicted by any of the recruitment ranking parameters. Finally, stratifying candidates based on their rank range did not effectively define a ranking cut-off beyond which resident performance would drop off. Based on these findings, we recommend surgery programs may be better served by utilizing a more structured resident ranking process and that subsequent adjustments to the rank list generated by this process should be undertaken with caution. Copyright © 2012 Association of Program Directors in Surgery

  13. Accurate prediction of the dew points of acidic combustion gases by using an artificial neural network model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ZareNezhad, Bahman; Aminian, Ali

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach based on using an artificial neural network (ANN) model for predicting the acid dew points of the combustion gases in process and power plants. The most important acidic combustion gases namely, SO 3 , SO 2 , NO 2 , HCl and HBr are considered in this investigation. Proposed Network is trained using the Levenberg-Marquardt back propagation algorithm and the hyperbolic tangent sigmoid activation function is applied to calculate the output values of the neurons of the hidden layer. According to the network's training, validation and testing results, a three layer neural network with nine neurons in the hidden layer is selected as the best architecture for accurate prediction of the acidic combustion gases dew points over wide ranges of acid and moisture concentrations. The proposed neural network model can have significant application in predicting the condensation temperatures of different acid gases to mitigate the corrosion problems in stacks, pollution control devices and energy recovery systems.

  14. Can tritiated water-dilution space accurately predict total body water in chukar partridges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crum, B.G.; Williams, J.B.; Nagy, K.A.

    1985-01-01

    Total body water (TBW) volumes determined from the dilution space of injected tritiated water have consistently overestimated actual water volumes (determined by desiccation to constant mass) in reptiles and mammals, but results for birds are controversial. We investigated potential errors in both the dilution method and the desiccation method in an attempt to resolve this controversy. Tritiated water dilution yielded an accurate measurement of water mass in vitro. However, in vivo, this method yielded a 4.6% overestimate of the amount of water (3.1% of live body mass) in chukar partridges, apparently largely because of loss of tritium from body water to sites of dissociable hydrogens on body solids. An additional source of overestimation (approximately 2% of body mass) was loss of tritium to the solids in blood samples during distillation of blood to obtain pure water for tritium analysis. Measuring tritium activity in plasma samples avoided this problem but required measurement of, and correction for, the dry matter content in plasma. Desiccation to constant mass by lyophilization or oven-drying also overestimated the amount of water actually in the bodies of chukar partridges by 1.4% of body mass, because these values included water adsorbed onto the outside of feathers. When desiccating defeathered carcasses, oven-drying at 70 degrees C yielded TBW values identical to those obtained from lyophilization, but TBW was overestimated (0.5% of body mass) by drying at 100 degrees C due to loss of organic substances as well as water

  15. Surface temperatures in New York City: Geospatial data enables the accurate prediction of radiative heat transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghandehari, Masoud; Emig, Thorsten; Aghamohamadnia, Milad

    2018-02-02

    Despite decades of research seeking to derive the urban energy budget, the dynamics of thermal exchange in the densely constructed environment is not yet well understood. Using New York City as a study site, we present a novel hybrid experimental-computational approach for a better understanding of the radiative heat transfer in complex urban environments. The aim of this work is to contribute to the calculation of the urban energy budget, particularly the stored energy. We will focus our attention on surface thermal radiation. Improved understanding of urban thermodynamics incorporating the interaction of various bodies, particularly in high rise cities, will have implications on energy conservation at the building scale, and for human health and comfort at the urban scale. The platform presented is based on longwave hyperspectral imaging of nearly 100 blocks of Manhattan, in addition to a geospatial radiosity model that describes the collective radiative heat exchange between multiple buildings. Despite assumptions in surface emissivity and thermal conductivity of buildings walls, the close comparison of temperatures derived from measurements and computations is promising. Results imply that the presented geospatial thermodynamic model of urban structures can enable accurate and high resolution analysis of instantaneous urban surface temperatures.

  16. Improving the description of sunglint for accurate prediction of remotely sensed radiances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ottaviani, Matteo [Light and Life Laboratory, Department of Physics and Engineering Physics, Stevens Institute of Technology, Castle Point on Hudson, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States)], E-mail: mottavia@stevens.edu; Spurr, Robert [RT Solutions Inc., 9 Channing Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Stamnes, Knut; Li Wei [Light and Life Laboratory, Department of Physics and Engineering Physics, Stevens Institute of Technology, Castle Point on Hudson, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States); Su Wenying [Science Systems and Applications Inc., 1 Enterprise Parkway, Hampton, VA 23666 (United States); Wiscombe, Warren [NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States)

    2008-09-15

    The bidirectional reflection distribution function (BRDF) of the ocean is a critical boundary condition for radiative transfer calculations in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. Existing models express the extent of the glint-contaminated region and its contribution to the radiance essentially as a function of the wind speed. An accurate treatment of the glint contribution and its propagation in the atmosphere would improve current correction schemes and hence rescue a significant portion of data presently discarded as 'glint contaminated'. In current satellite imagery, a correction to the sensor-measured radiances is limited to the region at the edge of the glint, where the contribution is below a certain threshold. This correction assumes the sunglint radiance to be directly transmitted through the atmosphere. To quantify the error introduced by this approximation we employ a radiative transfer code that allows for a user-specified BRDF at the atmosphere-ocean interface and rigorously accounts for multiple scattering. We show that the errors incurred by ignoring multiple scattering are very significant and typically lie in the range 10-90%. Multiple reflections and shadowing at the surface can also be accounted for, and we illustrate the importance of such processes at grazing geometries.

  17. High-order accurate numerical algorithm for three-dimensional transport prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pepper, D W [Savannah River Lab., Aiken, SC; Baker, A J

    1980-01-01

    The numerical solution of the three-dimensional pollutant transport equation is obtained with the method of fractional steps; advection is solved by the method of moments and diffusion by cubic splines. Topography and variable mesh spacing are accounted for with coordinate transformations. First estimate wind fields are obtained by interpolation to grid points surrounding specific data locations. Numerical results agree with results obtained from analytical Gaussian plume relations for ideal conditions. The numerical model is used to simulate the transport of tritium released from the Savannah River Plant on 2 May 1974. Predicted ground level air concentration 56 km from the release point is within 38% of the experimentally measured value.

  18. Developing Metamodels for Fast and Accurate Prediction of the Draping of Physical Surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Esben Toke; Forrester, AIJ.; Lund, Erik

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, the use of methods from the meta- or surrogate modeling literature, for building models predicting the draping of physical surfaces, is examined. An example application concerning modeling of the behavior of a variable shape mold is treated. Four different methods are considered...... and local variants, are compared in terms of accuracy and numerical efficiency on data sets of different sizes for the treated application. It is shown that the POD-based methods are vastly superior to models based on kriging alone, and that the use of a difference model structure is advantageous...

  19. Accurate cut-offs for predicting endoscopic activity and mucosal healing in Crohn's disease with fecal calprotectin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan María Vázquez-Morón

    Full Text Available Background: Fecal biomarkers, especially fecal calprotectin, are useful for predicting endoscopic activity in Crohn's disease; however, the cut-off point remains unclear. The aim of this paper was to analyze whether faecal calprotectin and M2 pyruvate kinase are good tools for generating highly accurate scores for the prediction of the state of endoscopic activity and mucosal healing. Methods: The simple endoscopic score for Crohn's disease and the Crohn's disease activity index was calculated for 71 patients diagnosed with Crohn's. Fecal calprotectin and M2-PK were measured by the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay test. Results: A fecal calprotectin cut-off concentration of ≥ 170 µg/g (sensitivity 77.6%, specificity 95.5% and likelihood ratio +17.06 predicts a high probability of endoscopic activity, and a fecal calprotectin cut-off of ≤ 71 µg/g (sensitivity 95.9%, specificity 52.3% and likelihood ratio -0.08 predicts a high probability of mucosal healing. Three clinical groups were identified according to the data obtained: endoscopic activity (calprotectin ≥ 170, mucosal healing (calprotectin ≤ 71 and uncertainty (71 > calprotectin < 170, with significant differences in endoscopic values (F = 26.407, p < 0.01. Clinical activity or remission modified the probabilities of presenting endoscopic activity (100% vs 89% or mucosal healing (75% vs 87% in the diagnostic scores generated. M2-PK was insufficiently accurate to determine scores. Conclusions: The highly accurate scores for fecal calprotectin provide a useful tool for interpreting the probabilities of presenting endoscopic activity or mucosal healing, and are valuable in the specific clinical context.

  20. DisoMCS: Accurately Predicting Protein Intrinsically Disordered Regions Using a Multi-Class Conservative Score Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiheng Wang

    Full Text Available The precise prediction of protein intrinsically disordered regions, which play a crucial role in biological procedures, is a necessary prerequisite to further the understanding of the principles and mechanisms of protein function. Here, we propose a novel predictor, DisoMCS, which is a more accurate predictor of protein intrinsically disordered regions. The DisoMCS bases on an original multi-class conservative score (MCS obtained by sequence-order/disorder alignment. Initially, near-disorder regions are defined on fragments located at both the terminus of an ordered region connecting a disordered region. Then the multi-class conservative score is generated by sequence alignment against a known structure database and represented as order, near-disorder and disorder conservative scores. The MCS of each amino acid has three elements: order, near-disorder and disorder profiles. Finally, the MCS is exploited as features to identify disordered regions in sequences. DisoMCS utilizes a non-redundant data set as the training set, MCS and predicted secondary structure as features, and a conditional random field as the classification algorithm. In predicted near-disorder regions a residue is determined as an order or a disorder according to the optimized decision threshold. DisoMCS was evaluated by cross-validation, large-scale prediction, independent tests and CASP (Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction tests. All results confirmed that DisoMCS was very competitive in terms of accuracy of prediction when compared with well-established publicly available disordered region predictors. It also indicated our approach was more accurate when a query has higher homologous with the knowledge database.The DisoMCS is available at http://cal.tongji.edu.cn/disorder/.

  1. Accurate prediction of hot spot residues through physicochemical characteristics of amino acid sequences

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Peng

    2013-07-23

    Hot spot residues of proteins are fundamental interface residues that help proteins perform their functions. Detecting hot spots by experimental methods is costly and time-consuming. Sequential and structural information has been widely used in the computational prediction of hot spots. However, structural information is not always available. In this article, we investigated the problem of identifying hot spots using only physicochemical characteristics extracted from amino acid sequences. We first extracted 132 relatively independent physicochemical features from a set of the 544 properties in AAindex1, an amino acid index database. Each feature was utilized to train a classification model with a novel encoding schema for hot spot prediction by the IBk algorithm, an extension of the K-nearest neighbor algorithm. The combinations of the individual classifiers were explored and the classifiers that appeared frequently in the top performing combinations were selected. The hot spot predictor was built based on an ensemble of these classifiers and to work in a voting manner. Experimental results demonstrated that our method effectively exploited the feature space and allowed flexible weights of features for different queries. On the commonly used hot spot benchmark sets, our method significantly outperformed other machine learning algorithms and state-of-the-art hot spot predictors. The program is available at http://sfb.kaust.edu.sa/pages/software.aspx. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Neural network and SVM classifiers accurately predict lipid binding proteins, irrespective of sequence homology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakhtiarizadeh, Mohammad Reza; Moradi-Shahrbabak, Mohammad; Ebrahimi, Mansour; Ebrahimie, Esmaeil

    2014-09-07

    Due to the central roles of lipid binding proteins (LBPs) in many biological processes, sequence based identification of LBPs is of great interest. The major challenge is that LBPs are diverse in sequence, structure, and function which results in low accuracy of sequence homology based methods. Therefore, there is a need for developing alternative functional prediction methods irrespective of sequence similarity. To identify LBPs from non-LBPs, the performances of support vector machine (SVM) and neural network were compared in this study. Comprehensive protein features and various techniques were employed to create datasets. Five-fold cross-validation (CV) and independent evaluation (IE) tests were used to assess the validity of the two methods. The results indicated that SVM outperforms neural network. SVM achieved 89.28% (CV) and 89.55% (IE) overall accuracy in identification of LBPs from non-LBPs and 92.06% (CV) and 92.90% (IE) (in average) for classification of different LBPs classes. Increasing the number and the range of extracted protein features as well as optimization of the SVM parameters significantly increased the efficiency of LBPs class prediction in comparison to the only previous report in this field. Altogether, the results showed that the SVM algorithm can be run on broad, computationally calculated protein features and offers a promising tool in detection of LBPs classes. The proposed approach has the potential to integrate and improve the common sequence alignment based methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Accurate prediction of hot spot residues through physicochemical characteristics of amino acid sequences

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Peng; Li, Jinyan; Limsoon, Wong; Kuwahara, Hiroyuki; Huang, Jianhua Z.; Gao, Xin

    2013-01-01

    Hot spot residues of proteins are fundamental interface residues that help proteins perform their functions. Detecting hot spots by experimental methods is costly and time-consuming. Sequential and structural information has been widely used in the computational prediction of hot spots. However, structural information is not always available. In this article, we investigated the problem of identifying hot spots using only physicochemical characteristics extracted from amino acid sequences. We first extracted 132 relatively independent physicochemical features from a set of the 544 properties in AAindex1, an amino acid index database. Each feature was utilized to train a classification model with a novel encoding schema for hot spot prediction by the IBk algorithm, an extension of the K-nearest neighbor algorithm. The combinations of the individual classifiers were explored and the classifiers that appeared frequently in the top performing combinations were selected. The hot spot predictor was built based on an ensemble of these classifiers and to work in a voting manner. Experimental results demonstrated that our method effectively exploited the feature space and allowed flexible weights of features for different queries. On the commonly used hot spot benchmark sets, our method significantly outperformed other machine learning algorithms and state-of-the-art hot spot predictors. The program is available at http://sfb.kaust.edu.sa/pages/software.aspx. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Deep Learning Accurately Predicts Estrogen Receptor Status in Breast Cancer Metabolomics Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alakwaa, Fadhl M; Chaudhary, Kumardeep; Garmire, Lana X

    2018-01-05

    Metabolomics holds the promise as a new technology to diagnose highly heterogeneous diseases. Conventionally, metabolomics data analysis for diagnosis is done using various statistical and machine learning based classification methods. However, it remains unknown if deep neural network, a class of increasingly popular machine learning methods, is suitable to classify metabolomics data. Here we use a cohort of 271 breast cancer tissues, 204 positive estrogen receptor (ER+), and 67 negative estrogen receptor (ER-) to test the accuracies of feed-forward networks, a deep learning (DL) framework, as well as six widely used machine learning models, namely random forest (RF), support vector machines (SVM), recursive partitioning and regression trees (RPART), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), prediction analysis for microarrays (PAM), and generalized boosted models (GBM). DL framework has the highest area under the curve (AUC) of 0.93 in classifying ER+/ER- patients, compared to the other six machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, the biological interpretation of the first hidden layer reveals eight commonly enriched significant metabolomics pathways (adjusted P-value learning methods. Among them, protein digestion and absorption and ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters pathways are also confirmed in integrated analysis between metabolomics and gene expression data in these samples. In summary, deep learning method shows advantages for metabolomics based breast cancer ER status classification, with both the highest prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.93) and better revelation of disease biology. We encourage the adoption of feed-forward networks based deep learning method in the metabolomics research community for classification.

  5. Accurate prediction of hot spot residues through physicochemical characteristics of amino acid sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Peng; Li, Jinyan; Wong, Limsoon; Kuwahara, Hiroyuki; Huang, Jianhua Z; Gao, Xin

    2013-08-01

    Hot spot residues of proteins are fundamental interface residues that help proteins perform their functions. Detecting hot spots by experimental methods is costly and time-consuming. Sequential and structural information has been widely used in the computational prediction of hot spots. However, structural information is not always available. In this article, we investigated the problem of identifying hot spots using only physicochemical characteristics extracted from amino acid sequences. We first extracted 132 relatively independent physicochemical features from a set of the 544 properties in AAindex1, an amino acid index database. Each feature was utilized to train a classification model with a novel encoding schema for hot spot prediction by the IBk algorithm, an extension of the K-nearest neighbor algorithm. The combinations of the individual classifiers were explored and the classifiers that appeared frequently in the top performing combinations were selected. The hot spot predictor was built based on an ensemble of these classifiers and to work in a voting manner. Experimental results demonstrated that our method effectively exploited the feature space and allowed flexible weights of features for different queries. On the commonly used hot spot benchmark sets, our method significantly outperformed other machine learning algorithms and state-of-the-art hot spot predictors. The program is available at http://sfb.kaust.edu.sa/pages/software.aspx. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Size matters. The width and location of a ureteral stone accurately predict the chance of spontaneous passage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jendeberg, Johan; Geijer, Haakan; Alshamari, Muhammed; Liden, Mats [Oerebro University Hospital, Department of Radiology, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Oerebro (Sweden); Cierzniak, Bartosz [Oerebro University, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Oerebro (Sweden)

    2017-11-15

    To determine how to most accurately predict the chance of spontaneous passage of a ureteral stone using information in the diagnostic non-enhanced computed tomography (NECT) and to create predictive models with smaller stone size intervals than previously possible. Retrospectively 392 consecutive patients with ureteric stone on NECT were included. Three radiologists independently measured the stone size. Stone location, side, hydronephrosis, CRP, medical expulsion therapy (MET) and all follow-up radiology until stone expulsion or 26 weeks were recorded. Logistic regressions were performed with spontaneous stone passage in 4 weeks and 20 weeks as the dependent variable. The spontaneous passage rate in 20 weeks was 312 out of 392 stones, 98% in 0-2 mm, 98% in 3 mm, 81% in 4 mm, 65% in 5 mm, 33% in 6 mm and 9% in ≥6.5 mm wide stones. The stone size and location predicted spontaneous ureteric stone passage. The side and the grade of hydronephrosis only predicted stone passage in specific subgroups. Spontaneous passage of a ureteral stone can be predicted with high accuracy with the information available in the NECT. We present a prediction method based on stone size and location. (orig.)

  7. ABC/2 Method Does not Accurately Predict Cerebral Arteriovenous Malformation Volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roark, Christopher; Vadlamudi, Venu; Chaudhary, Neeraj; Gemmete, Joseph J; Seinfeld, Joshua; Thompson, B Gregory; Pandey, Aditya S

    2018-02-01

    Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) is a treatment option for cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) to prevent intracranial hemorrhage. The decision to proceed with SRS is usually based on calculated nidal volume. Physicians commonly use the ABC/2 formula, based on digital subtraction angiography (DSA), when counseling patients for SRS. To determine whether AVM volume calculated using the ABC/2 method on DSA is accurate when compared to the exact volume calculated from thin-cut axial sections used for SRS planning. Retrospective search of neurovascular database to identify AVMs treated with SRS from 1995 to 2015. Maximum nidal diameters in orthogonal planes on DSA images were recorded to determine volume using ABC/2 formula. Nidal target volume was extracted from operative reports of SRS. Volumes were then compared using descriptive statistics and paired t-tests. Ninety intracranial AVMs were identified. Median volume was 4.96 cm3 [interquartile range (IQR) 1.79-8.85] with SRS planning methods and 6.07 cm3 (IQR 1.3-13.6) with ABC/2 methodology. Moderate correlation was seen between SRS and ABC/2 (r = 0.662; P ABC/2 (t = -3.2; P = .002). When AVMs were dichotomized based on ABC/2 volume, significant differences remained (t = 3.1, P = .003 for ABC/2 volume ABC/2 volume > 7 cm3). The ABC/2 method overestimates cerebral AVM volume when compared to volumetric analysis from SRS planning software. For AVMs > 7 cm3, the overestimation is even greater. SRS planning techniques were also significantly different than values derived from equations for cones and cylinders. Copyright © 2017 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

  8. Prognostic breast cancer signature identified from 3D culture model accurately predicts clinical outcome across independent datasets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, Katherine J.; Patrick, Denis R.; Bissell, Mina J.; Fournier, Marcia V.

    2008-10-20

    One of the major tenets in breast cancer research is that early detection is vital for patient survival by increasing treatment options. To that end, we have previously used a novel unsupervised approach to identify a set of genes whose expression predicts prognosis of breast cancer patients. The predictive genes were selected in a well-defined three dimensional (3D) cell culture model of non-malignant human mammary epithelial cell morphogenesis as down-regulated during breast epithelial cell acinar formation and cell cycle arrest. Here we examine the ability of this gene signature (3D-signature) to predict prognosis in three independent breast cancer microarray datasets having 295, 286, and 118 samples, respectively. Our results show that the 3D-signature accurately predicts prognosis in three unrelated patient datasets. At 10 years, the probability of positive outcome was 52, 51, and 47 percent in the group with a poor-prognosis signature and 91, 75, and 71 percent in the group with a good-prognosis signature for the three datasets, respectively (Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, p<0.05). Hazard ratios for poor outcome were 5.5 (95% CI 3.0 to 12.2, p<0.0001), 2.4 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.6, p<0.0001) and 1.9 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.2, p = 0.016) and remained significant for the two larger datasets when corrected for estrogen receptor (ER) status. Hence the 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome in both ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, though individual genes differed in their prognostic ability in the two subtypes. Genes that were prognostic in ER+ patients are AURKA, CEP55, RRM2, EPHA2, FGFBP1, and VRK1, while genes prognostic in ER patients include ACTB, FOXM1 and SERPINE2 (Kaplan-Meier p<0.05). Multivariable Cox regression analysis in the largest dataset showed that the 3D-signature was a strong independent factor in predicting breast cancer outcome. The 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome across multiple datasets and holds prognostic

  9. Combining multiple regression and principal component analysis for accurate predictions for column ozone in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajab, Jasim M.; MatJafri, M. Z.; Lim, H. S.

    2013-06-01

    This study encompasses columnar ozone modelling in the peninsular Malaysia. Data of eight atmospheric parameters [air surface temperature (AST), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4), water vapour (H2Ovapour), skin surface temperature (SSKT), atmosphere temperature (AT), relative humidity (RH), and mean surface pressure (MSP)] data set, retrieved from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), for the entire period (2003-2008) was employed to develop models to predict the value of columnar ozone (O3) in study area. The combined method, which is based on using both multiple regressions combined with principal component analysis (PCA) modelling, was used to predict columnar ozone. This combined approach was utilized to improve the prediction accuracy of columnar ozone. Separate analysis was carried out for north east monsoon (NEM) and south west monsoon (SWM) seasons. The O3 was negatively correlated with CH4, H2Ovapour, RH, and MSP, whereas it was positively correlated with CO, AST, SSKT, and AT during both the NEM and SWM season periods. Multiple regression analysis was used to fit the columnar ozone data using the atmospheric parameter's variables as predictors. A variable selection method based on high loading of varimax rotated principal components was used to acquire subsets of the predictor variables to be comprised in the linear regression model of the atmospheric parameter's variables. It was found that the increase in columnar O3 value is associated with an increase in the values of AST, SSKT, AT, and CO and with a drop in the levels of CH4, H2Ovapour, RH, and MSP. The result of fitting the best models for the columnar O3 value using eight of the independent variables gave about the same values of the R (≈0.93) and R2 (≈0.86) for both the NEM and SWM seasons. The common variables that appeared in both regression equations were SSKT, CH4 and RH, and the principal precursor of the columnar O3 value in both the NEM and SWM seasons was SSKT.

  10. Disturbance observer based model predictive control for accurate atmospheric entry of spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chao; Yang, Jun; Li, Shihua; Li, Qi; Guo, Lei

    2018-05-01

    Facing the complex aerodynamic environment of Mars atmosphere, a composite atmospheric entry trajectory tracking strategy is investigated in this paper. External disturbances, initial states uncertainties and aerodynamic parameters uncertainties are the main problems. The composite strategy is designed to solve these problems and improve the accuracy of Mars atmospheric entry. This strategy includes a model predictive control for optimized trajectory tracking performance, as well as a disturbance observer based feedforward compensation for external disturbances and uncertainties attenuation. 500-run Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed composite control scheme achieves more precise Mars atmospheric entry (3.8 km parachute deployment point distribution error) than the baseline control scheme (8.4 km) and integral control scheme (5.8 km).

  11. nuMap: a web platform for accurate prediction of nucleosome positioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alharbi, Bader A; Alshammari, Thamir H; Felton, Nathan L; Zhurkin, Victor B; Cui, Feng

    2014-10-01

    Nucleosome positioning is critical for gene expression and of major biological interest. The high cost of experimentally mapping nucleosomal arrangement signifies the need for computational approaches to predict nucleosome positions at high resolution. Here, we present a web-based application to fulfill this need by implementing two models, YR and W/S schemes, for the translational and rotational positioning of nucleosomes, respectively. Our methods are based on sequence-dependent anisotropic bending that dictates how DNA is wrapped around a histone octamer. This application allows users to specify a number of options such as schemes and parameters for threading calculation and provides multiple layout formats. The nuMap is implemented in Java/Perl/MySQL and is freely available for public use at http://numap.rit.edu. The user manual, implementation notes, description of the methodology and examples are available at the site. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  12. nuMap: A Web Platform for Accurate Prediction of Nucleosome Positioning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bader A. Alharbi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Nucleosome positioning is critical for gene expression and of major biological interest. The high cost of experimentally mapping nucleosomal arrangement signifies the need for computational approaches to predict nucleosome positions at high resolution. Here, we present a web-based application to fulfill this need by implementing two models, YR and W/S schemes, for the translational and rotational positioning of nucleosomes, respectively. Our methods are based on sequence-dependent anisotropic bending that dictates how DNA is wrapped around a histone octamer. This application allows users to specify a number of options such as schemes and parameters for threading calculation and provides multiple layout formats. The nuMap is implemented in Java/Perl/MySQL and is freely available for public use at http://numap.rit.edu. The user manual, implementation notes, description of the methodology and examples are available at the site.

  13. How Accurately Do Consecutive Cohort Audits Predict Phase III Multisite Clinical Trial Recruitment in Palliative Care?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffrey, Nikki; Fazekas, Belinda; Cutri, Natalie; Currow, David C

    2016-04-01

    Audits have been proposed for estimating possible recruitment rates to randomized controlled trials (RCTs), but few studies have compared audit data with subsequent recruitment rates. To compare the accuracy of estimates of potential recruitment from a retrospective consecutive cohort audit of actual participating sites and recruitment to four Phase III multisite clinical RCTs. The proportion of potentially eligible study participants estimated from an inpatient chart review of people with life-limiting illnesses referred to six Australian specialist palliative care services was compared with recruitment data extracted from study prescreening information from three sites that participated fully in four Palliative Care Clinical Studies Collaborative RCTs. The predominant reasons for ineligibility in the audit and RCTs were analyzed. The audit overestimated the proportion of people referred to the palliative care services who could participate in the RCTs (pain 17.7% vs. 1.2%, delirium 5.8% vs. 0.6%, anorexia 5.1% vs. 0.8%, and bowel obstruction 2.8% vs. 0.5%). Approximately 2% of the referral base was potentially eligible for these effectiveness studies. Ineligibility for general criteria (language, cognition, and geographic proximity) varied between studies, whereas the reasons for exclusion were similar between the audit and pain and anorexia studies but not for delirium or bowel obstruction. The retrospective consecutive case note audit in participating sites did not predict realistic recruitment rates, mostly underestimating the impact of study-specific inclusion criteria. These findings have implications for the applicability of the results of RCTs. Prospective pilot studies are more likely to predict actual recruitment. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Simplified versus geometrically accurate models of forefoot anatomy to predict plantar pressures: A finite element study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telfer, Scott; Erdemir, Ahmet; Woodburn, James; Cavanagh, Peter R

    2016-01-25

    Integration of patient-specific biomechanical measurements into the design of therapeutic footwear has been shown to improve clinical outcomes in patients with diabetic foot disease. The addition of numerical simulations intended to optimise intervention design may help to build on these advances, however at present the time and labour required to generate and run personalised models of foot anatomy restrict their routine clinical utility. In this study we developed second-generation personalised simple finite element (FE) models of the forefoot with varying geometric fidelities. Plantar pressure predictions from barefoot, shod, and shod with insole simulations using simplified models were compared to those obtained from CT-based FE models incorporating more detailed representations of bone and tissue geometry. A simplified model including representations of metatarsals based on simple geometric shapes, embedded within a contoured soft tissue block with outer geometry acquired from a 3D surface scan was found to provide pressure predictions closest to the more complex model, with mean differences of 13.3kPa (SD 13.4), 12.52kPa (SD 11.9) and 9.6kPa (SD 9.3) for barefoot, shod, and insole conditions respectively. The simplified model design could be produced in 3h in the case of the more detailed model, and solved on average 24% faster. FE models of the forefoot based on simplified geometric representations of the metatarsal bones and soft tissue surface geometry from 3D surface scans may potentially provide a simulation approach with improved clinical utility, however further validity testing around a range of therapeutic footwear types is required. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. A New Approach for Accurate Prediction of Liquid Loading of Directional Gas Wells in Transition Flow or Turbulent Flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruiqing Ming

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Current common models for calculating continuous liquid-carrying critical gas velocity are established based on vertical wells and laminar flow without considering the influence of deviation angle and Reynolds number on liquid-carrying. With the increase of the directional well in transition flow or turbulent flow, the current common models cannot accurately predict the critical gas velocity of these wells. So we built a new model to predict continuous liquid-carrying critical gas velocity for directional well in transition flow or turbulent flow. It is shown from sensitivity analysis that the correction coefficient is mainly influenced by Reynolds number and deviation angle. With the increase of Reynolds number, the critical liquid-carrying gas velocity increases first and then decreases. And with the increase of deviation angle, the critical liquid-carrying gas velocity gradually decreases. It is indicated from the case calculation analysis that the calculation error of this new model is less than 10%, where accuracy is much higher than those of current common models. It is demonstrated that the continuous liquid-carrying critical gas velocity of directional well in transition flow or turbulent flow can be predicted accurately by using this new model.

  16. Predictive powertrain control using powertrain history and GPS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weslati, Feisel; Krupadanam, Ashish A

    2015-03-03

    A method and powertrain apparatus that predicts a route of travel for a vehicle and uses historical powertrain loads and speeds for the predicted route of travel to optimize at least one powertrain operation for the vehicle.

  17. Using Bronson Equation to Accurately Predict the Dog Brain Weight Based on Body Weight Parameter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Miguel Carreira

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The study used 69 brains (n = 69 from adult dog cadavers, divided by their skull type into three groups, brachi (B, dolicho (D and mesaticephalic (M (n = 23 each, and aimed: (1 to determine whether the Bronson equation may be applied, without reservation, to estimate brain weight (BW in brachy (B, dolicho (D, and mesaticephalic (M dog breeds; and (2 to evaluate which breeds are more closely related to each other in an evolutionary scenario. All subjects were identified by sex, age, breed, and body weight (bw. An oscillating saw was used for a circumferential craniotomy to open the skulls; the brains were removed and weighed using a digital scale. For statistical analysis, p-values < 0.05 were considered significant. The work demonstrated a strong relationship between the observed and predicted BW by using the Bronson equation. It was possible to hypothesize that groups B and D present a greater encephalization level than M breeds, that B and D dog breeds are more closely related to each other than to M, and from the three groups, the D individuals presented the highest brain mass mean.

  18. The human skin/chick chorioallantoic membrane model accurately predicts the potency of cosmetic allergens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slodownik, Dan; Grinberg, Igor; Spira, Ram M; Skornik, Yehuda; Goldstein, Ronald S

    2009-04-01

    The current standard method for predicting contact allergenicity is the murine local lymph node assay (LLNA). Public objection to the use of animals in testing of cosmetics makes the development of a system that does not use sentient animals highly desirable. The chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) of the chick egg has been extensively used for the growth of normal and transformed mammalian tissues. The CAM is not innervated, and embryos are sacrificed before the development of pain perception. The aim of this study was to determine whether the sensitization phase of contact dermatitis to known cosmetic allergens can be quantified using CAM-engrafted human skin and how these results compare with published EC3 data obtained with the LLNA. We studied six common molecules used in allergen testing and quantified migration of epidermal Langerhans cells (LC) as a measure of their allergic potency. All agents with known allergic potential induced statistically significant migration of LC. The data obtained correlated well with published data for these allergens generated using the LLNA test. The human-skin CAM model therefore has great potential as an inexpensive, non-radioactive, in vivo alternative to the LLNA, which does not require the use of sentient animals. In addition, this system has the advantage of testing the allergic response of human, rather than animal skin.

  19. Towards Relaxing the Spherical Solar Radiation Pressure Model for Accurate Orbit Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachut, M.; Bennett, J.

    2016-09-01

    The well-known cannonball model has been used ubiquitously to capture the effects of atmospheric drag and solar radiation pressure on satellites and/or space debris for decades. While it lends itself naturally to spherical objects, its validity in the case of non-spherical objects has been debated heavily for years throughout the space situational awareness community. One of the leading motivations to improve orbit predictions by relaxing the spherical assumption, is the ongoing demand for more robust and reliable conjunction assessments. In this study, we explore the orbit propagation of a flat plate in a near-GEO orbit under the influence of solar radiation pressure, using a Lambertian BRDF model. Consequently, this approach will account for the spin rate and orientation of the object, which is typically determined in practice using a light curve analysis. Here, simulations will be performed which systematically reduces the spin rate to demonstrate the point at which the spherical model no longer describes the orbital elements of the spinning plate. Further understanding of this threshold would provide insight into when a higher fidelity model should be used, thus resulting in improved orbit propagations. Therefore, the work presented here is of particular interest to organizations and researchers that maintain their own catalog, and/or perform conjunction analyses.

  20. Quasi-closed phase forward-backward linear prediction analysis of speech for accurate formant detection and estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gowda, Dhananjaya; Airaksinen, Manu; Alku, Paavo

    2017-09-01

    Recently, a quasi-closed phase (QCP) analysis of speech signals for accurate glottal inverse filtering was proposed. However, the QCP analysis which belongs to the family of temporally weighted linear prediction (WLP) methods uses the conventional forward type of sample prediction. This may not be the best choice especially in computing WLP models with a hard-limiting weighting function. A sample selective minimization of the prediction error in WLP reduces the effective number of samples available within a given window frame. To counter this problem, a modified quasi-closed phase forward-backward (QCP-FB) analysis is proposed, wherein each sample is predicted based on its past as well as future samples thereby utilizing the available number of samples more effectively. Formant detection and estimation experiments on synthetic vowels generated using a physical modeling approach as well as natural speech utterances show that the proposed QCP-FB method yields statistically significant improvements over the conventional linear prediction and QCP methods.

  1. The development and verification of a highly accurate collision prediction model for automated noncoplanar plan delivery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Victoria Y.; Tran, Angelia; Nguyen, Dan; Cao, Minsong; Ruan, Dan; Low, Daniel A.; Sheng, Ke

    2015-01-01

    attributed to phantom setup errors due to the slightly deformable and flexible phantom extremities. The estimated site-specific safety buffer distance with 0.001% probability of collision for (gantry-to-couch, gantry-to-phantom) was (1.23 cm, 3.35 cm), (1.01 cm, 3.99 cm), and (2.19 cm, 5.73 cm) for treatment to the head, lung, and prostate, respectively. Automated delivery to all three treatment sites was completed in 15 min and collision free using a digital Linac. Conclusions: An individualized collision prediction model for the purpose of noncoplanar beam delivery was developed and verified. With the model, the study has demonstrated the feasibility of predicting deliverable beams for an individual patient and then guiding fully automated noncoplanar treatment delivery. This work motivates development of clinical workflows and quality assurance procedures to allow more extensive use and automation of noncoplanar beam geometries

  2. The development and verification of a highly accurate collision prediction model for automated noncoplanar plan delivery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Victoria Y.; Tran, Angelia; Nguyen, Dan; Cao, Minsong; Ruan, Dan; Low, Daniel A.; Sheng, Ke, E-mail: ksheng@mednet.ucla.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90024 (United States)

    2015-11-15

    attributed to phantom setup errors due to the slightly deformable and flexible phantom extremities. The estimated site-specific safety buffer distance with 0.001% probability of collision for (gantry-to-couch, gantry-to-phantom) was (1.23 cm, 3.35 cm), (1.01 cm, 3.99 cm), and (2.19 cm, 5.73 cm) for treatment to the head, lung, and prostate, respectively. Automated delivery to all three treatment sites was completed in 15 min and collision free using a digital Linac. Conclusions: An individualized collision prediction model for the purpose of noncoplanar beam delivery was developed and verified. With the model, the study has demonstrated the feasibility of predicting deliverable beams for an individual patient and then guiding fully automated noncoplanar treatment delivery. This work motivates development of clinical workflows and quality assurance procedures to allow more extensive use and automation of noncoplanar beam geometries.

  3. The development and verification of a highly accurate collision prediction model for automated noncoplanar plan delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Victoria Y; Tran, Angelia; Nguyen, Dan; Cao, Minsong; Ruan, Dan; Low, Daniel A; Sheng, Ke

    2015-11-01

    errors due to the slightly deformable and flexible phantom extremities. The estimated site-specific safety buffer distance with 0.001% probability of collision for (gantry-to-couch, gantry-to-phantom) was (1.23 cm, 3.35 cm), (1.01 cm, 3.99 cm), and (2.19 cm, 5.73 cm) for treatment to the head, lung, and prostate, respectively. Automated delivery to all three treatment sites was completed in 15 min and collision free using a digital Linac. An individualized collision prediction model for the purpose of noncoplanar beam delivery was developed and verified. With the model, the study has demonstrated the feasibility of predicting deliverable beams for an individual patient and then guiding fully automated noncoplanar treatment delivery. This work motivates development of clinical workflows and quality assurance procedures to allow more extensive use and automation of noncoplanar beam geometries.

  4. Industrial Compositional Streamline Simulation for Efficient and Accurate Prediction of Gas Injection and WAG Processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Margot Gerritsen

    2008-10-31

    Gas-injection processes are widely and increasingly used for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). In the United States, for example, EOR production by gas injection accounts for approximately 45% of total EOR production and has tripled since 1986. The understanding of the multiphase, multicomponent flow taking place in any displacement process is essential for successful design of gas-injection projects. Due to complex reservoir geometry, reservoir fluid properties and phase behavior, the design of accurate and efficient numerical simulations for the multiphase, multicomponent flow governing these processes is nontrivial. In this work, we developed, implemented and tested a streamline based solver for gas injection processes that is computationally very attractive: as compared to traditional Eulerian solvers in use by industry it computes solutions with a computational speed orders of magnitude higher and a comparable accuracy provided that cross-flow effects do not dominate. We contributed to the development of compositional streamline solvers in three significant ways: improvement of the overall framework allowing improved streamline coverage and partial streamline tracing, amongst others; parallelization of the streamline code, which significantly improves wall clock time; and development of new compositional solvers that can be implemented along streamlines as well as in existing Eulerian codes used by industry. We designed several novel ideas in the streamline framework. First, we developed an adaptive streamline coverage algorithm. Adding streamlines locally can reduce computational costs by concentrating computational efforts where needed, and reduce mapping errors. Adapting streamline coverage effectively controls mass balance errors that mostly result from the mapping from streamlines to pressure grid. We also introduced the concept of partial streamlines: streamlines that do not necessarily start and/or end at wells. This allows more efficient coverage and avoids

  5. Mini-Mental Status Examination: a short form of MMSE was as accurate as the original MMSE in predicting dementia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz-Larsen, Kirsten; Lomholt, Rikke Kirstine; Kreiner, Svend

    2006-01-01

    .4%), and positive predictive value (71.0%) but equal area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Cross-validation on follow-up data confirmed the results. CONCLUSION: A short, valid MMSE, which is as sensitive and specific as the original MMSE for the screening of cognitive impairments and dementia......OBJECTIVES: This study assesses the properties of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) with the purpose of improving the efficiencies of the methods of screening for cognitive impairment and dementia. A specific purpose was to determine whether an abbreviated version would be as accurate...... is attractive for research and clinical practice, particularly if predictive power can be enhanced by combining the short MMSE with neuropsychological tests or informant reports....

  6. Deformation, Failure, and Fatigue Life of SiC/Ti-15-3 Laminates Accurately Predicted by MAC/GMC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

    2002-01-01

    NASA Glenn Research Center's Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) (ref.1) has been extended to enable fully coupled macro-micro deformation, failure, and fatigue life predictions for advanced metal matrix, ceramic matrix, and polymer matrix composites. Because of the multiaxial nature of the code's underlying micromechanics model, GMC--which allows the incorporation of complex local inelastic constitutive models--MAC/GMC finds its most important application in metal matrix composites, like the SiC/Ti-15-3 composite examined here. Furthermore, since GMC predicts the microscale fields within each constituent of the composite material, submodels for local effects such as fiber breakage, interfacial debonding, and matrix fatigue damage can and have been built into MAC/GMC. The present application of MAC/GMC highlights the combination of these features, which has enabled the accurate modeling of the deformation, failure, and life of titanium matrix composites.

  7. A Weibull statistics-based lignocellulose saccharification model and a built-in parameter accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mingyu; Han, Lijuan; Liu, Shasha; Zhao, Xuebing; Yang, Jinghua; Loh, Soh Kheang; Sun, Xiaomin; Zhang, Chenxi; Fang, Xu

    2015-09-01

    Renewable energy from lignocellulosic biomass has been deemed an alternative to depleting fossil fuels. In order to improve this technology, we aim to develop robust mathematical models for the enzymatic lignocellulose degradation process. By analyzing 96 groups of previously published and newly obtained lignocellulose saccharification results and fitting them to Weibull distribution, we discovered Weibull statistics can accurately predict lignocellulose saccharification data, regardless of the type of substrates, enzymes and saccharification conditions. A mathematical model for enzymatic lignocellulose degradation was subsequently constructed based on Weibull statistics. Further analysis of the mathematical structure of the model and experimental saccharification data showed the significance of the two parameters in this model. In particular, the λ value, defined the characteristic time, represents the overall performance of the saccharification system. This suggestion was further supported by statistical analysis of experimental saccharification data and analysis of the glucose production levels when λ and n values change. In conclusion, the constructed Weibull statistics-based model can accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis behavior and we can use the λ parameter to assess the overall performance of enzymatic lignocellulose degradation. Advantages and potential applications of the model and the λ value in saccharification performance assessment were discussed. Copyright © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  8. Predicted osteotomy planes are accurate when using patient-specific instrumentation for total knee arthroplasty in cadavers: a descriptive analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kievit, A J; Dobbe, J G G; Streekstra, G J; Blankevoort, L; Schafroth, M U

    2018-06-01

    Malalignment of implants is a major source of failure during total knee arthroplasty. To achieve more accurate 3D planning and execution of the osteotomy cuts during surgery, the Signature (Biomet, Warsaw) patient-specific instrumentation (PSI) was used to produce pin guides for the positioning of the osteotomy blocks by means of computer-aided manufacture based on CT scan images. The research question of this study is: what is the transfer accuracy of osteotomy planes predicted by the Signature PSI system for preoperative 3D planning and intraoperative block-guided pin placement to perform total knee arthroplasty procedures? The transfer accuracy achieved by using the Signature PSI system was evaluated by comparing the osteotomy planes predicted preoperatively with the osteotomy planes seen intraoperatively in human cadaveric legs. Outcomes were measured in terms of translational and rotational errors (varus, valgus, flexion, extension and axial rotation) for both tibia and femur osteotomies. Average translational errors between the osteotomy planes predicted using the Signature system and the actual osteotomy planes achieved was 0.8 mm (± 0.5 mm) for the tibia and 0.7 mm (± 4.0 mm) for the femur. Average rotational errors in relation to predicted and achieved osteotomy planes were 0.1° (± 1.2°) of varus and 0.4° (± 1.7°) of anterior slope (extension) for the tibia, and 2.8° (± 2.0°) of varus and 0.9° (± 2.7°) of flexion and 1.4° (± 2.2°) of external rotation for the femur. The similarity between osteotomy planes predicted using the Signature system and osteotomy planes actually achieved was excellent for the tibia although some discrepancies were seen for the femur. The use of 3D system techniques in TKA surgery can provide accurate intraoperative guidance, especially for patients with deformed bone, tailored to individual patients and ensure better placement of the implant.

  9. New and Accurate Predictive Model for the Efficacy of Extracorporeal Shock Wave Therapy in Managing Patients With Chronic Plantar Fasciitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Mengchen; Chen, Ni; Huang, Quan; Marla, Anastasia Sulindro; Ma, Junming; Ye, Jie; Mo, Wen

    2017-12-01

    Youden index was .4243, .3003, and .7189, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good fitting of the predictive model, with an overall accuracy of 89.6%. This study establishes a new and accurate predictive model for the efficacy of ESWT in managing patients with chronic plantar fasciitis. The use of these parameters, in the form of a predictive model for ESWT efficacy, has the potential to improve decision-making in the application of ESWT. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Limited Sampling Strategy for Accurate Prediction of Pharmacokinetics of Saroglitazar: A 3-point Linear Regression Model Development and Successful Prediction of Human Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Shuchi N; Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Parmar, Deven V

    2018-03-01

    Our aim was to develop and validate the extrapolative performance of a regression model using a limited sampling strategy for accurate estimation of the area under the plasma concentration versus time curve for saroglitazar. Healthy subject pharmacokinetic data from a well-powered food-effect study (fasted vs fed treatments; n = 50) was used in this work. The first 25 subjects' serial plasma concentration data up to 72 hours and corresponding AUC 0-t (ie, 72 hours) from the fasting group comprised a training dataset to develop the limited sampling model. The internal datasets for prediction included the remaining 25 subjects from the fasting group and all 50 subjects from the fed condition of the same study. The external datasets included pharmacokinetic data for saroglitazar from previous single-dose clinical studies. Limited sampling models were composed of 1-, 2-, and 3-concentration-time points' correlation with AUC 0-t of saroglitazar. Only models with regression coefficients (R 2 ) >0.90 were screened for further evaluation. The best R 2 model was validated for its utility based on mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error. Both correlations between predicted and observed AUC 0-t of saroglitazar and verification of precision and bias using Bland-Altman plot were carried out. None of the evaluated 1- and 2-concentration-time points models achieved R 2 > 0.90. Among the various 3-concentration-time points models, only 4 equations passed the predefined criterion of R 2 > 0.90. Limited sampling models with time points 0.5, 2, and 8 hours (R 2 = 0.9323) and 0.75, 2, and 8 hours (R 2 = 0.9375) were validated. Mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error were prediction of saroglitazar. The same models, when applied to the AUC 0-t prediction of saroglitazar sulfoxide, showed mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error model predicts the exposure of

  11. Accurate prediction of stability changes in protein mutants by combining machine learning with structure based computational mutagenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masso, Majid; Vaisman, Iosif I

    2008-09-15

    Accurate predictive models for the impact of single amino acid substitutions on protein stability provide insight into protein structure and function. Such models are also valuable for the design and engineering of new proteins. Previously described methods have utilized properties of protein sequence or structure to predict the free energy change of mutants due to thermal (DeltaDeltaG) and denaturant (DeltaDeltaG(H2O)) denaturations, as well as mutant thermal stability (DeltaT(m)), through the application of either computational energy-based approaches or machine learning techniques. However, accuracy associated with applying these methods separately is frequently far from optimal. We detail a computational mutagenesis technique based on a four-body, knowledge-based, statistical contact potential. For any mutation due to a single amino acid replacement in a protein, the method provides an empirical normalized measure of the ensuing environmental perturbation occurring at every residue position. A feature vector is generated for the mutant by considering perturbations at the mutated position and it's ordered six nearest neighbors in the 3-dimensional (3D) protein structure. These predictors of stability change are evaluated by applying machine learning tools to large training sets of mutants derived from diverse proteins that have been experimentally studied and described. Predictive models based on our combined approach are either comparable to, or in many cases significantly outperform, previously published results. A web server with supporting documentation is available at http://proteins.gmu.edu/automute.

  12. A NEW CLINICAL PREDICTION CRITERION ACCURATELY DETERMINES A SUBSET OF PATIENTS WITH BILATERAL PRIMARY ALDOSTERONISM BEFORE ADRENAL VENOUS SAMPLING.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocjan, Tomaz; Janez, Andrej; Stankovic, Milenko; Vidmar, Gaj; Jensterle, Mojca

    2016-05-01

    Adrenal venous sampling (AVS) is the only available method to distinguish bilateral from unilateral primary aldosteronism (PA). AVS has several drawbacks, so it is reasonable to avoid this procedure when the results would not affect clinical management. Our objective was to identify a clinical criterion that can reliably predict nonlateralized AVS as a surrogate for bilateral PA that is not treated surgically. A retrospective diagnostic cross-sectional study conducted at Slovenian national endocrine referral center included 69 consecutive patients (mean age 56 ± 8 years, 21 females) with PA who underwent AVS. PA was confirmed with the saline infusion test (SIT). AVS was performed sequentially during continuous adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH) infusion. The main outcome measures were variables associated with nonlateralized AVS to derive a clinical prediction rule. Sixty-seven (97%) patients had a successful AVS and were included in the statistical analysis. A total of 39 (58%) patients had nonlateralized AVS. The combined criterion of serum potassium ≥3.5 mmol/L, post-SIT aldosterone AVS. The best overall classification accuracy (50/67 = 75%) was achieved using the post-SIT aldosterone level AVS. Our clinical prediction criterion appears to accurately determine a subset of patients with bilateral PA who could avoid unnecessary AVS and immediately commence with medical treatment.

  13. PredictSNP2: A Unified Platform for Accurately Evaluating SNP Effects by Exploiting the Different Characteristics of Variants in Distinct Genomic Regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendl, Jaroslav; Musil, Miloš; Štourač, Jan; Zendulka, Jaroslav; Damborský, Jiří; Brezovský, Jan

    2016-05-01

    An important message taken from human genome sequencing projects is that the human population exhibits approximately 99.9% genetic similarity. Variations in the remaining parts of the genome determine our identity, trace our history and reveal our heritage. The precise delineation of phenotypically causal variants plays a key role in providing accurate personalized diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of inherited diseases. Several computational methods for achieving such delineation have been reported recently. However, their ability to pinpoint potentially deleterious variants is limited by the fact that their mechanisms of prediction do not account for the existence of different categories of variants. Consequently, their output is biased towards the variant categories that are most strongly represented in the variant databases. Moreover, most such methods provide numeric scores but not binary predictions of the deleteriousness of variants or confidence scores that would be more easily understood by users. We have constructed three datasets covering different types of disease-related variants, which were divided across five categories: (i) regulatory, (ii) splicing, (iii) missense, (iv) synonymous, and (v) nonsense variants. These datasets were used to develop category-optimal decision thresholds and to evaluate six tools for variant prioritization: CADD, DANN, FATHMM, FitCons, FunSeq2 and GWAVA. This evaluation revealed some important advantages of the category-based approach. The results obtained with the five best-performing tools were then combined into a consensus score. Additional comparative analyses showed that in the case of missense variations, protein-based predictors perform better than DNA sequence-based predictors. A user-friendly web interface was developed that provides easy access to the five tools' predictions, and their consensus scores, in a user-understandable format tailored to the specific features of different categories of variations. To

  14. Non-isothermal kinetics model to predict accurate phase transformation and hardness of 22MnB5 boron steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bok, H.-H.; Kim, S.N.; Suh, D.W. [Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology, POSTECH, San 31, Hyoja-dong, Nam-gu, Pohang, Gyeongsangbuk-do (Korea, Republic of); Barlat, F., E-mail: f.barlat@postech.ac.kr [Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology, POSTECH, San 31, Hyoja-dong, Nam-gu, Pohang, Gyeongsangbuk-do (Korea, Republic of); Lee, M.-G., E-mail: myounglee@korea.ac.kr [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Korea University, Anam-dong, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-02-25

    A non-isothermal phase transformation kinetics model obtained by modifying the well-known JMAK approach is proposed for application to a low carbon boron steel (22MnB5) sheet. In the modified kinetics model, the parameters are functions of both temperature and cooling rate, and can be identified by a numerical optimization method. Moreover, in this approach the transformation start and finish temperatures are variable instead of the constants that depend on chemical composition. These variable reference temperatures are determined from the measured CCT diagram using dilatation experiments. The kinetics model developed in this work captures the complex transformation behavior of the boron steel sheet sample accurately. In particular, the predicted hardness and phase fractions in the specimens subjected to a wide range of cooling rates were validated by experiments.

  15. Accurate density functional prediction of molecular electron affinity with the scaling corrected Kohn–Sham frontier orbital energies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, DaDi; Yang, Xiaolong; Zheng, Xiao; Yang, Weitao

    2018-04-01

    Electron affinity (EA) is the energy released when an additional electron is attached to an atom or a molecule. EA is a fundamental thermochemical property, and it is closely pertinent to other important properties such as electronegativity and hardness. However, accurate prediction of EA is difficult with density functional theory methods. The somewhat large error of the calculated EAs originates mainly from the intrinsic delocalisation error associated with the approximate exchange-correlation functional. In this work, we employ a previously developed non-empirical global scaling correction approach, which explicitly imposes the Perdew-Parr-Levy-Balduz condition to the approximate functional, and achieve a substantially improved accuracy for the calculated EAs. In our approach, the EA is given by the scaling corrected Kohn-Sham lowest unoccupied molecular orbital energy of the neutral molecule, without the need to carry out the self-consistent-field calculation for the anion.

  16. Effect of computational grid on accurate prediction of a wind turbine rotor using delayed detached-eddy simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bangga, Galih; Weihing, Pascal; Lutz, Thorsten; Krämer, Ewald [University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart (Germany)

    2017-05-15

    The present study focuses on the impact of grid for accurate prediction of the MEXICO rotor under stalled conditions. Two different blade mesh topologies, O and C-H meshes, and two different grid resolutions are tested for several time step sizes. The simulations are carried out using Delayed detached-eddy simulation (DDES) with two eddy viscosity RANS turbulence models, namely Spalart- Allmaras (SA) and Menter Shear stress transport (SST) k-ω. A high order spatial discretization, WENO (Weighted essentially non- oscillatory) scheme, is used in these computations. The results are validated against measurement data with regards to the sectional loads and the chordwise pressure distributions. The C-H mesh topology is observed to give the best results employing the SST k-ω turbulence model, but the computational cost is more expensive as the grid contains a wake block that increases the number of cells.

  17. Development of a method to accurately calculate the Dpb and quickly predict the strength of a chemical bond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du, Xia; Zhao, Dong-Xia; Yang, Zhong-Zhi

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A method from new respect to characterize and measure the bond strength is proposed. ► We calculate the D pb of a series of various bonds to justify our approach. ► A quite good linear relationship of the D pb with the bond lengths for series of various bonds is shown. ► Take the prediction of strengths of C–H and N–H bonds for base pairs in DNA as a practical application of our method. - Abstract: A new approach to characterize and measure bond strength has been developed. First, we propose a method to accurately calculate the potential acting on an electron in a molecule (PAEM) at the saddle point along a chemical bond in situ, denoted by D pb . Then, a direct method to quickly evaluate bond strength is established. We choose some familiar molecules as models for benchmarking this method. As a practical application, the D pb of base pairs in DNA along C–H and N–H bonds are obtained for the first time. All results show that C 7 –H of A–T and C 8 –H of G–C are the relatively weak bonds that are the injured positions in DNA damage. The significance of this work is twofold: (i) A method is developed to calculate D pb of various sizable molecules in situ quickly and accurately; (ii) This work demonstrates the feasibility to quickly predict the bond strength in macromolecules

  18. Genomic inference accurately predicts the timing and severity of a recent bottleneck in a non-model insect population

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Rajiv C.; Garud, Nandita R.; Kelley, Joanna L.; Boggs, Carol L.; Petrov, Dmitri A.

    2015-01-01

    The analysis of molecular data from natural populations has allowed researchers to answer diverse ecological questions that were previously intractable. In particular, ecologists are often interested in the demographic history of populations, information that is rarely available from historical records. Methods have been developed to infer demographic parameters from genomic data, but it is not well understood how inferred parameters compare to true population history or depend on aspects of experimental design. Here we present and evaluate a method of SNP discovery using RNA-sequencing and demographic inference using the program δaδi, which uses a diffusion approximation to the allele frequency spectrum to fit demographic models. We test these methods in a population of the checkerspot butterfly Euphydryas gillettii. This population was intentionally introduced to Gothic, Colorado in 1977 and has since experienced extreme fluctuations including bottlenecks of fewer than 25 adults, as documented by nearly annual field surveys. Using RNA-sequencing of eight individuals from Colorado and eight individuals from a native population in Wyoming, we generate the first genomic resources for this system. While demographic inference is commonly used to examine ancient demography, our study demonstrates that our inexpensive, all-in-one approach to marker discovery and genotyping provides sufficient data to accurately infer the timing of a recent bottleneck. This demographic scenario is relevant for many species of conservation concern, few of which have sequenced genomes. Our results are remarkably insensitive to sample size or number of genomic markers, which has important implications for applying this method to other non-model systems. PMID:24237665

  19. A novel fibrosis index comprising a non-cholesterol sterol accurately predicts HCV-related liver cirrhosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Ydreborg

    Full Text Available Diagnosis of liver cirrhosis is essential in the management of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV infection. Liver biopsy is invasive and thus entails a risk of complications as well as a potential risk of sampling error. Therefore, non-invasive diagnostic tools are preferential. The aim of the present study was to create a model for accurate prediction of liver cirrhosis based on patient characteristics and biomarkers of liver fibrosis, including a panel of non-cholesterol sterols reflecting cholesterol synthesis and absorption and secretion. We evaluated variables with potential predictive significance for liver fibrosis in 278 patients originally included in a multicenter phase III treatment trial for chronic HCV infection. A stepwise multivariate logistic model selection was performed with liver cirrhosis, defined as Ishak fibrosis stage 5-6, as the outcome variable. A new index, referred to as Nordic Liver Index (NoLI in the paper, was based on the model: Log-odds (predicting cirrhosis = -12.17+ (age × 0.11 + (BMI (kg/m(2 × 0.23 + (D7-lathosterol (μg/100 mg cholesterol×(-0.013 + (Platelet count (x10(9/L × (-0.018 + (Prothrombin-INR × 3.69. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC for prediction of cirrhosis was 0.91 (95% CI 0.86-0.96. The index was validated in a separate cohort of 83 patients and the AUROC for this cohort was similar (0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.98. In conclusion, the new index may complement other methods in diagnosing cirrhosis in patients with chronic HCV infection.

  20. A Deep Learning Framework for Robust and Accurate Prediction of ncRNA-Protein Interactions Using Evolutionary Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Hai-Cheng; You, Zhu-Hong; Huang, De-Shuang; Li, Xiao; Jiang, Tong-Hai; Li, Li-Ping

    2018-06-01

    The interactions between non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs) and proteins play an important role in many biological processes, and their biological functions are primarily achieved by binding with a variety of proteins. High-throughput biological techniques are used to identify protein molecules bound with specific ncRNA, but they are usually expensive and time consuming. Deep learning provides a powerful solution to computationally predict RNA-protein interactions. In this work, we propose the RPI-SAN model by using the deep-learning stacked auto-encoder network to mine the hidden high-level features from RNA and protein sequences and feed them into a random forest (RF) model to predict ncRNA binding proteins. Stacked assembling is further used to improve the accuracy of the proposed method. Four benchmark datasets, including RPI2241, RPI488, RPI1807, and NPInter v2.0, were employed for the unbiased evaluation of five established prediction tools: RPI-Pred, IPMiner, RPISeq-RF, lncPro, and RPI-SAN. The experimental results show that our RPI-SAN model achieves much better performance than other methods, with accuracies of 90.77%, 89.7%, 96.1%, and 99.33%, respectively. It is anticipated that RPI-SAN can be used as an effective computational tool for future biomedical researches and can accurately predict the potential ncRNA-protein interacted pairs, which provides reliable guidance for biological research. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Combining first-principles and data modeling for the accurate prediction of the refractive index of organic polymers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afzal, Mohammad Atif Faiz; Cheng, Chong; Hachmann, Johannes

    2018-06-01

    Organic materials with a high index of refraction (RI) are attracting considerable interest due to their potential application in optic and optoelectronic devices. However, most of these applications require an RI value of 1.7 or larger, while typical carbon-based polymers only exhibit values in the range of 1.3-1.5. This paper introduces an efficient computational protocol for the accurate prediction of RI values in polymers to facilitate in silico studies that can guide the discovery and design of next-generation high-RI materials. Our protocol is based on the Lorentz-Lorenz equation and is parametrized by the polarizability and number density values of a given candidate compound. In the proposed scheme, we compute the former using first-principles electronic structure theory and the latter using an approximation based on van der Waals volumes. The critical parameter in the number density approximation is the packing fraction of the bulk polymer, for which we have devised a machine learning model. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed RI protocol by testing its predictions against the experimentally known RI values of 112 optical polymers. Our approach to combine first-principles and data modeling emerges as both a successful and a highly economical path to determining the RI values for a wide range of organic polymers.

  2. Predicting suitable optoelectronic properties of monoclinic VON semiconductor crystals for photovoltaics using accurate first-principles computations

    KAUST Repository

    Harb, Moussab

    2015-01-01

    Using accurate first-principles quantum calculations based on DFT (including the perturbation theory DFPT) with the range-separated hybrid HSE06 exchange-correlation functional, we predict essential fundamental properties (such as bandgap, optical absorption coefficient, dielectric constant, charge carrier effective masses and exciton binding energy) of two stable monoclinic vanadium oxynitride (VON) semiconductor crystals for solar energy conversion applications. In addition to the predicted band gaps in the optimal range for making single-junction solar cells, both polymorphs exhibit relatively high absorption efficiencies in the visible range, high dielectric constants, high charge carrier mobilities and much lower exciton binding energies than the thermal energy at room temperature. Moreover, their optical absorption, dielectric and exciton dissociation properties are found to be better than those obtained for semiconductors frequently utilized in photovoltaic devices like Si, CdTe and GaAs. These novel results offer a great opportunity for this stoichiometric VON material to be properly synthesized and considered as a new good candidate for photovoltaic applications.

  3. Predicting suitable optoelectronic properties of monoclinic VON semiconductor crystals for photovoltaics using accurate first-principles computations

    KAUST Repository

    Harb, Moussab

    2015-08-26

    Using accurate first-principles quantum calculations based on DFT (including the perturbation theory DFPT) with the range-separated hybrid HSE06 exchange-correlation functional, we predict essential fundamental properties (such as bandgap, optical absorption coefficient, dielectric constant, charge carrier effective masses and exciton binding energy) of two stable monoclinic vanadium oxynitride (VON) semiconductor crystals for solar energy conversion applications. In addition to the predicted band gaps in the optimal range for making single-junction solar cells, both polymorphs exhibit relatively high absorption efficiencies in the visible range, high dielectric constants, high charge carrier mobilities and much lower exciton binding energies than the thermal energy at room temperature. Moreover, their optical absorption, dielectric and exciton dissociation properties are found to be better than those obtained for semiconductors frequently utilized in photovoltaic devices like Si, CdTe and GaAs. These novel results offer a great opportunity for this stoichiometric VON material to be properly synthesized and considered as a new good candidate for photovoltaic applications.

  4. Accurate X-Ray Spectral Predictions: An Advanced Self-Consistent-Field Approach Inspired by Many-Body Perturbation Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yufeng; Vinson, John; Pemmaraju, Sri; Drisdell, Walter S; Shirley, Eric L; Prendergast, David

    2017-03-03

    Constrained-occupancy delta-self-consistent-field (ΔSCF) methods and many-body perturbation theories (MBPT) are two strategies for obtaining electronic excitations from first principles. Using the two distinct approaches, we study the O 1s core excitations that have become increasingly important for characterizing transition-metal oxides and understanding strong electronic correlation. The ΔSCF approach, in its current single-particle form, systematically underestimates the pre-edge intensity for chosen oxides, despite its success in weakly correlated systems. By contrast, the Bethe-Salpeter equation within MBPT predicts much better line shapes. This motivates one to reexamine the many-electron dynamics of x-ray excitations. We find that the single-particle ΔSCF approach can be rectified by explicitly calculating many-electron transition amplitudes, producing x-ray spectra in excellent agreement with experiments. This study paves the way to accurately predict x-ray near-edge spectral fingerprints for physics and materials science beyond the Bethe-Salpether equation.

  5. Estimating the state of a geophysical system with sparse observations: time delay methods to achieve accurate initial states for prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Zhe; Rey, Daniel; Ye, Jingxin; Abarbanel, Henry D. I.

    2017-01-01

    The problem of forecasting the behavior of a complex dynamical system through analysis of observational time-series data becomes difficult when the system expresses chaotic behavior and the measurements are sparse, in both space and/or time. Despite the fact that this situation is quite typical across many fields, including numerical weather prediction, the issue of whether the available observations are "sufficient" for generating successful forecasts is still not well understood. An analysis by Whartenby et al. (2013) found that in the context of the nonlinear shallow water equations on a β plane, standard nudging techniques require observing approximately 70 % of the full set of state variables. Here we examine the same system using a method introduced by Rey et al. (2014a), which generalizes standard nudging methods to utilize time delayed measurements. We show that in certain circumstances, it provides a sizable reduction in the number of observations required to construct accurate estimates and high-quality predictions. In particular, we find that this estimate of 70 % can be reduced to about 33 % using time delays, and even further if Lagrangian drifter locations are also used as measurements.

  6. Accurate prediction of complex free surface flow around a high speed craft using a single-phase level set method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broglia, Riccardo; Durante, Danilo

    2017-11-01

    This paper focuses on the analysis of a challenging free surface flow problem involving a surface vessel moving at high speeds, or planing. The investigation is performed using a general purpose high Reynolds free surface solver developed at CNR-INSEAN. The methodology is based on a second order finite volume discretization of the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations (Di Mascio et al. in A second order Godunov—type scheme for naval hydrodynamics, Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 253-261, 2001; Proceedings of 16th international offshore and polar engineering conference, San Francisco, CA, USA, 2006; J Mar Sci Technol 14:19-29, 2009); air/water interface dynamics is accurately modeled by a non standard level set approach (Di Mascio et al. in Comput Fluids 36(5):868-886, 2007a), known as the single-phase level set method. In this algorithm the governing equations are solved only in the water phase, whereas the numerical domain in the air phase is used for a suitable extension of the fluid dynamic variables. The level set function is used to track the free surface evolution; dynamic boundary conditions are enforced directly on the interface. This approach allows to accurately predict the evolution of the free surface even in the presence of violent breaking waves phenomena, maintaining the interface sharp, without any need to smear out the fluid properties across the two phases. This paper is aimed at the prediction of the complex free-surface flow field generated by a deep-V planing boat at medium and high Froude numbers (from 0.6 up to 1.2). In the present work, the planing hull is treated as a two-degree-of-freedom rigid object. Flow field is characterized by the presence of thin water sheets, several energetic breaking waves and plungings. The computational results include convergence of the trim angle, sinkage and resistance under grid refinement; high-quality experimental data are used for the purposes of validation, allowing to

  7. Sexual victimization history predicts academic performance in college women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Majel R; Frazier, Patricia A; Greer, Christiaan; Paulsen, Jacob A; Howard, Kelli; Meredith, Liza N; Anders, Samantha L; Shallcross, Sandra L

    2016-11-01

    College women frequently report having experienced sexual victimization (SV) in their lifetime, including child sexual abuse and adolescent/adult sexual assault. Although the harmful mental health sequelae of SV have been extensively studied, recent research suggests that SV is also a risk factor for poorer college academic performance. The current studies examined whether exposure to SV uniquely predicted poorer college academic performance, even beyond contributions from three well-established predictors of academic performance: high school rank, composite standardized test scores (i.e., American College Testing [ACT]), and conscientiousness. Study 1 analyzed longitudinal data from a sample of female college students (N = 192) who were assessed at the beginning and end of one semester. SV predicted poorer cumulative end-of-semester grade point average (GPA) while controlling for well-established predictors of academic performance. Study 2 replicated these findings in a second longitudinal study of female college students (N = 390) and extended the analyses to include follow-up data on the freshmen and sophomore students (n = 206) 4 years later. SV predicted students' GPA in their final term at the university above the contributions of well-established academic predictors, and it was the only factor related to leaving college. These findings highlight the importance of expanding the scope of outcomes of SV to include academic performance, and they underscore the need to assess SV and other adverse experiences on college campuses to target students who may be at risk of poor performance or leaving college. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. A Real-Time Accurate Model and Its Predictive Fuzzy PID Controller for Pumped Storage Unit via Error Compensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhong Zhou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Model simulation and control of pumped storage unit (PSU are essential to improve the dynamic quality of power station. Only under the premise of the PSU models reflecting the actual transient process, the novel control method can be properly applied in the engineering. The contributions of this paper are that (1 a real-time accurate equivalent circuit model (RAECM of PSU via error compensation is proposed to reconcile the conflict between real-time online simulation and accuracy under various operating conditions, and (2 an adaptive predicted fuzzy PID controller (APFPID based on RAECM is put forward to overcome the instability of conventional control under no-load conditions with low water head. Respectively, all hydraulic factors in pipeline system are fully considered based on equivalent lumped-circuits theorem. The pretreatment, which consists of improved Suter-transformation and BP neural network, and online simulation method featured by two iterative loops are synthetically proposed to improve the solving accuracy of the pump-turbine. Moreover, the modified formulas for compensating error are derived with variable-spatial discretization to improve the accuracy of the real-time simulation further. The implicit RadauIIA method is verified to be more suitable for PSUGS owing to wider stable domain. Then, APFPID controller is constructed based on the integration of fuzzy PID and the model predictive control. Rolling prediction by RAECM is proposed to replace rolling optimization with its computational speed guaranteed. Finally, the simulation and on-site measurements are compared to prove trustworthy of RAECM under various running conditions. Comparative experiments also indicate that APFPID controller outperforms other controllers in most cases, especially low water head conditions. Satisfying results of RAECM have been achieved in engineering and it provides a novel model reference for PSUGS.

  9. Respiratory variation in peak aortic velocity accurately predicts fluid responsiveness in children undergoing neurosurgery under general anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morparia, Kavita G; Reddy, Srijaya K; Olivieri, Laura J; Spaeder, Michael C; Schuette, Jennifer J

    2018-04-01

    The determination of fluid responsiveness in the critically ill child is of vital importance, more so as fluid overload becomes increasingly associated with worse outcomes. Dynamic markers of volume responsiveness have shown some promise in the pediatric population, but more research is needed before they can be adopted for widespread use. Our aim was to investigate effectiveness of respiratory variation in peak aortic velocity and pulse pressure variation to predict fluid responsiveness, and determine their optimal cutoff values. We performed a prospective, observational study at a single tertiary care pediatric center. Twenty-one children with normal cardiorespiratory status undergoing general anesthesia for neurosurgery were enrolled. Respiratory variation in peak aortic velocity (ΔVpeak ao) was measured both before and after volume expansion using a bedside ultrasound device. Pulse pressure variation (PPV) value was obtained from the bedside monitor. All patients received a 10 ml/kg fluid bolus as volume expansion, and were qualified as responders if stroke volume increased >15% as a result. Utility of ΔVpeak ao and PPV and to predict responsiveness to volume expansion was investigated. A baseline ΔVpeak ao value of greater than or equal to 12.3% best predicted a positive response to volume expansion, with a sensitivity of 77%, specificity of 89% and area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.90. PPV failed to demonstrate utility in this patient population. Respiratory variation in peak aortic velocity is a promising marker for optimization of perioperative fluid therapy in the pediatric population and can be accurately measured using bedside ultrasonography. More research is needed to evaluate the lack of effectiveness of pulse pressure variation for this purpose.

  10. At the Nexus of History, Ecology, and Hydrobiogeochemistry: Improved Predictions across Scales through Integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stegen, James C

    2018-01-01

    To improve predictions of ecosystem function in future environments, we need to integrate the ecological and environmental histories experienced by microbial communities with hydrobiogeochemistry across scales. A key issue is whether we can derive generalizable scaling relationships that describe this multiscale integration. There is a strong foundation for addressing these challenges. We have the ability to infer ecological history with null models and reveal impacts of environmental history through laboratory and field experimentation. Recent developments also provide opportunities to inform ecosystem models with targeted omics data. A major next step is coupling knowledge derived from such studies with multiscale modeling frameworks that are predictive under non-steady-state conditions. This is particularly true for systems spanning dynamic interfaces, which are often hot spots of hydrobiogeochemical function. We can advance predictive capabilities through a holistic perspective focused on the nexus of history, ecology, and hydrobiogeochemistry.

  11. A rapid and accurate approach for prediction of interactomes from co-elution data (PrInCE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stacey, R Greg; Skinnider, Michael A; Scott, Nichollas E; Foster, Leonard J

    2017-10-23

    An organism's protein interactome, or complete network of protein-protein interactions, defines the protein complexes that drive cellular processes. Techniques for studying protein complexes have traditionally applied targeted strategies such as yeast two-hybrid or affinity purification-mass spectrometry to assess protein interactions. However, given the vast number of protein complexes, more scalable methods are necessary to accelerate interaction discovery and to construct whole interactomes. We recently developed a complementary technique based on the use of protein correlation profiling (PCP) and stable isotope labeling in amino acids in cell culture (SILAC) to assess chromatographic co-elution as evidence of interacting proteins. Importantly, PCP-SILAC is also capable of measuring protein interactions simultaneously under multiple biological conditions, allowing the detection of treatment-specific changes to an interactome. Given the uniqueness and high dimensionality of co-elution data, new tools are needed to compare protein elution profiles, control false discovery rates, and construct an accurate interactome. Here we describe a freely available bioinformatics pipeline, PrInCE, for the analysis of co-elution data. PrInCE is a modular, open-source library that is computationally inexpensive, able to use label and label-free data, and capable of detecting tens of thousands of protein-protein interactions. Using a machine learning approach, PrInCE offers greatly reduced run time, more predicted interactions at the same stringency, prediction of protein complexes, and greater ease of use over previous bioinformatics tools for co-elution data. PrInCE is implemented in Matlab (version R2017a). Source code and standalone executable programs for Windows and Mac OSX are available at https://github.com/fosterlab/PrInCE , where usage instructions can be found. An example dataset and output are also provided for testing purposes. PrInCE is the first fast and easy

  12. Accurate prediction of retention in hydrophilic interaction chromatography by back calculation of high pressure liquid chromatography gradient profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Nu; Boswell, Paul G

    2017-10-20

    Gradient retention times are difficult to project from the underlying retention factor (k) vs. solvent composition (φ) relationships. A major reason for this difficulty is that gradients produced by HPLC pumps are imperfect - gradient delay, gradient dispersion, and solvent mis-proportioning are all difficult to account for in calculations. However, we recently showed that a gradient "back-calculation" methodology can measure these imperfections and take them into account. In RPLC, when the back-calculation methodology was used, error in projected gradient retention times is as low as could be expected based on repeatability in the k vs. φ relationships. HILIC, however, presents a new challenge: the selectivity of HILIC columns drift strongly over time. Retention is repeatable in short time, but selectivity frequently drifts over the course of weeks. In this study, we set out to understand if the issue of selectivity drift can be avoid by doing our experiments quickly, and if there any other factors that make it difficult to predict gradient retention times from isocratic k vs. φ relationships when gradient imperfections are taken into account with the back-calculation methodology. While in past reports, the accuracy of retention projections was >5%, the back-calculation methodology brought our error down to ∼1%. This result was 6-43 times more accurate than projections made using ideal gradients and 3-5 times more accurate than the same retention projections made using offset gradients (i.e., gradients that only took gradient delay into account). Still, the error remained higher in our HILIC projections than in RPLC. Based on the shape of the back-calculated gradients, we suspect the higher error is a result of prominent gradient distortion caused by strong, preferential water uptake from the mobile phase into the stationary phase during the gradient - a factor our model did not properly take into account. It appears that, at least with the stationary phase

  13. Predicting thermal history a-priori for magnetic nanoparticle hyperthermia of internal carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhar, Purbarun; Sirisha Maganti, Lakshmi

    2017-08-01

    This article proposes a simplistic and realistic method where a direct analytical expression can be derived for the temperature field within a tumour during magnetic nanoparticle hyperthermia. The approximated analytical expression for thermal history within the tumour is derived based on the lumped capacitance approach and considers all therapy protocols and parameters. The present method is simplistic and provides an easy framework for estimating hyperthermia protocol parameters promptly. The model has been validated with respect to several experimental reports on animal models such as mice/rabbit/hamster and human clinical trials. It has been observed that the model is able to accurately estimate the thermal history within the carcinoma during the hyperthermia therapy. The present approach may find implications in a-priori estimation of the thermal history in internal tumours for optimizing magnetic hyperthermia treatment protocols with respect to the ablation time, tumour size, magnetic drug concentration, field strength, field frequency, nanoparticle material and size, tumour location, and so on.

  14. Prediction of hemoglobin levels in whole blood donors: how to model donation history

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baart, A.M.; Vergouwe, Y.; Atsma, F.; Moons, K.G.; Kort, W.L. de

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Recently, prediction models for hemoglobin (Hb) deferral risk have been developed. These models consider the previous Hb level plus change in Hb. Here, we investigated if the performance of models could be improved by considering more information on Hb level history. STUDY DESIGN AND

  15. Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

    2017-12-22

    Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life-history, and mating-system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics and the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev =24.3) and formulated predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N ev . The comparison of effective-size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female RS also affected N ev ; hf2=0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting Nev, namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life-history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting

  16. Herbivore-induced plant volatiles accurately predict history of coexistence, diet breadth, and feeding mode of herbivores.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danner, H.; Desurmont, G.A.; Cristescu, S.M.; Dam, N.M. van

    2017-01-01

    Herbivore-induced plant volatiles (HIPVs) serve as specific cues to higher trophic levels. Novel, exotic herbivores entering native foodwebs may disrupt the infochemical network as a result of changes in HIPV profiles. Here, we analysed HIPV blends of native Brassica rapa plants infested with one of

  17. Do Skilled Elementary Teachers Hold Scientific Conceptions and Can They Accurately Predict the Type and Source of Students' Preconceptions of Electric Circuits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jing-Wen

    2016-01-01

    Holding scientific conceptions and having the ability to accurately predict students' preconceptions are a prerequisite for science teachers to design appropriate constructivist-oriented learning experiences. This study explored the types and sources of students' preconceptions of electric circuits. First, 438 grade 3 (9 years old) students were…

  18. Understanding invasion history and predicting invasive niches using genetic sequencing technology in Australia: case studies from Cucurbitaceae and Boraginaceae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaik, Razia S; Zhu, Xiaocheng; Clements, David R; Weston, Leslie A

    2016-01-01

    Part of the challenge in dealing with invasive plant species is that they seldom represent a uniform, static entity. Often, an accurate understanding of the history of plant introduction and knowledge of the real levels of genetic diversity present in species and populations of importance is lacking. Currently, the role of genetic diversity in promoting the successful establishment of invasive plants is not well defined. Genetic profiling of invasive plants should enhance our understanding of the dynamics of colonization in the invaded range. Recent advances in DNA sequencing technology have greatly facilitated the rapid and complete assessment of plant population genetics. Here, we apply our current understanding of the genetics and ecophysiology of plant invasions to recent work on Australian plant invaders from the Cucurbitaceae and Boraginaceae. The Cucurbitaceae study showed that both prickly paddy melon ( Cucumis myriocarpus ) and camel melon ( Citrullus lanatus ) were represented by only a single genotype in Australia, implying that each was probably introduced as a single introduction event. In contrast, a third invasive melon, Citrullus colocynthis , possessed a moderate level of genetic diversity in Australia and was potentially introduced to the continent at least twice. The Boraginaceae study demonstrated the value of comparing two similar congeneric species; one, Echium plantagineum , is highly invasive and genetically diverse, whereas the other, Echium vulgare , exhibits less genetic diversity and occupies a more limited ecological niche. Sequence analysis provided precise identification of invasive plant species, as well as information on genetic diversity and phylogeographic history. Improved sequencing technologies will continue to allow greater resolution of genetic relationships among invasive plant populations, thereby potentially improving our ability to predict the impact of these relationships upon future spread and better manage invaders

  19. Prediction of collision cross section and retention time for broad scope screening in gradient reversed-phase liquid chromatography-ion mobility-high resolution accurate mass spectrometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mollerup, Christian Brinch; Mardal, Marie; Dalsgaard, Petur Weihe

    2018-01-01

    artificial neural networks (ANNs). Prediction was based on molecular descriptors, 827 RTs, and 357 CCS values from pharmaceuticals, drugs of abuse, and their metabolites. ANN models for the prediction of RT or CCS separately were examined, and the potential to predict both from a single model......Exact mass, retention time (RT), and collision cross section (CCS) are used as identification parameters in liquid chromatography coupled to ion mobility high resolution accurate mass spectrometry (LC-IM-HRMS). Targeted screening analyses are now more flexible and can be expanded for suspect...

  20. Predicting Risk of Suicide Attempt Using History of Physical Illnesses From Electronic Medical Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Wei; Tran, Truyen; Berk, Michael; Venkatesh, Svetha

    2016-01-01

    Background Although physical illnesses, routinely documented in electronic medical records (EMR), have been found to be a contributing factor to suicides, no automated systems use this information to predict suicide risk. Objective The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of physical illnesses on suicide risk, and develop a predictive model that captures this relationship using EMR data. Methods We used history of physical illnesses (except chapter V: Mental and behavioral disorders) from EMR data over different time-periods to build a lookup table that contains the probability of suicide risk for each chapter of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes. The lookup table was then used to predict the probability of suicide risk for any new assessment. Based on the different lengths of history of physical illnesses, we developed six different models to predict suicide risk. We tested the performance of developed models to predict 90-day risk using historical data over differing time-periods ranging from 3 to 48 months. A total of 16,858 assessments from 7399 mental health patients with at least one risk assessment was used for the validation of the developed model. The performance was measured using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results The best predictive results were derived (AUC=0.71) using combined data across all time-periods, which significantly outperformed the clinical baseline derived from routine risk assessment (AUC=0.56). The proposed approach thus shows potential to be incorporated in the broader risk assessment processes used by clinicians. Conclusions This study provides a novel approach to exploit the history of physical illnesses extracted from EMR (ICD-10 codes without chapter V-mental and behavioral disorders) to predict suicide risk, and this model outperforms existing clinical assessments of suicide risk. PMID:27400764

  1. Towards accurate prediction of unbalance response, oil whirl and oil whip of flexible rotors supported by hydrodynamic bearings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eling, R.P.T.; te Wierik, M.; van Ostayen, R.A.J.; Rixen, D.J.

    2016-01-01

    Journal bearings are used to support rotors in a wide range of applications. In order to ensure reliable operation, accurate analyses of these rotor-bearing systems are crucial. Coupled analysis of the rotor and the journal bearing is essential in the case that the rotor is flexible. The accuracy of

  2. Total reference air kerma can accurately predict isodose surface volumes in cervix cancer brachytherapy. A multicenter study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nkiwane, Karen S; Andersen, Else; Champoudry, Jerome

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: To demonstrate that V60 Gy, V75 Gy, and V85 Gy isodose surface volumes can be accurately estimated from total reference air kerma (TRAK) in cervix cancer MRI-guided brachytherapy (BT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: 60 Gy, 75 Gy, and 85 Gy isodose surface volumes levels were obtained from treatm...

  3. Accurate particle speed prediction by improved particle speed measurement and 3-dimensional particle size and shape characterization technique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cernuschi, Federico; Rothleitner, Christian; Clausen, Sønnik

    2017-01-01

    Accurate particle mass and velocity measurement is needed for interpreting test results in erosion tests of materials and coatings. The impact and damage of a surface is influenced by the kinetic energy of a particle, i.e. particle mass and velocity. Particle mass is usually determined with optic...

  4. Accurate pan-specific prediction of peptide-MHC class II binding affinity with improved binding core identification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreatta, Massimo; Karosiene, Edita; Rasmussen, Michael

    2015-01-01

    with known binding registers, the new method NetMHCIIpan-3.1 significantly outperformed the earlier 3.0 version. We illustrate the impact of accurate binding core identification for the interpretation of T cell cross-reactivity using tetramer double staining with a CMV epitope and its variants mapped...

  5. Measurement and prediction of thermochemical history effects on sensitization development in austenitic stainless steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruemmer, S.M.; Charlot, L.A.

    1985-11-01

    The effects of thermal and thermomechanical treatments on sensitization development in Type 304 and 316 stainless steels have been measured and compared to model predictions. Sensitization development resulting from isothermal, continuous cooling and pipe welding treatments has been evaluated. An empirically modified, theoretically based model is shown to accurately predict material degree of sensitization (DOS) as expressed by the electrochemical potentiokinetic reactivation (EPR) test after both simple and complex treatments. Material DOS is also examined using analytical electron microscopy to document grain boundary chromium depletion and is compared to EPR test results

  6. A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Costa, A.; Crespo, A.; Navarro, J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper makes a brief review on 30 years of history of the wind power short-term prediction, since the first ideas and sketches on the theme to the actual state of the art oil models and tools, giving emphasis to the most significant proposals and developments. The two principal lines of thought...... on short-term prediction (mathematical and physical) are indistinctly treated here and comparisons between models and tools are avoided, mainly because, on the one hand, a standard for a measure of performance is still not adopted and, on the other hand, it is very important that the data are exactly...

  7. Accurate and computationally efficient prediction of thermochemical properties of biomolecules using the generalized connectivity-based hierarchy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sengupta, Arkajyoti; Ramabhadran, Raghunath O; Raghavachari, Krishnan

    2014-08-14

    In this study we have used the connectivity-based hierarchy (CBH) method to derive accurate heats of formation of a range of biomolecules, 18 amino acids and 10 barbituric acid/uracil derivatives. The hierarchy is based on the connectivity of the different atoms in a large molecule. It results in error-cancellation reaction schemes that are automated, general, and can be readily used for a broad range of organic molecules and biomolecules. Herein, we first locate stable conformational and tautomeric forms of these biomolecules using an accurate level of theory (viz. CCSD(T)/6-311++G(3df,2p)). Subsequently, the heats of formation of the amino acids are evaluated using the CBH-1 and CBH-2 schemes and routinely employed density functionals or wave function-based methods. The calculated heats of formation obtained herein using modest levels of theory and are in very good agreement with those obtained using more expensive W1-F12 and W2-F12 methods on amino acids and G3 results on barbituric acid derivatives. Overall, the present study (a) highlights the small effect of including multiple conformers in determining the heats of formation of biomolecules and (b) in concurrence with previous CBH studies, proves that use of the more effective error-cancelling isoatomic scheme (CBH-2) results in more accurate heats of formation with modestly sized basis sets along with common density functionals or wave function-based methods.

  8. Can Social History Variables Predict Prison Inmates’ Risk for Latent Tuberculosis Infection?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyler E. Weant

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Improved screening and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI in correctional facilities may improve TB control. The Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction (ODRC consists of 32 prisons. Inmates are screened upon entry to ODRC and yearly thereafter. The objective of the study was to determine if social history factors such as tobacco, alcohol, and drug use are significant predictors of LTBI and treatment outcomes. We reviewed the medical charts of inmates and randomly selected age-matched controls at one ODRC facility for 2009. We used a conditional logistic regression to assess associations between selected social history variables and LTBI diagnosis. Eighty-nine inmates with a history of LTBI and 88 controls were identified. No social history variable was a significant predictor of LTBI. Medical comorbidities such as asthma, rheumatoid arthritis, and hepatitis C were significantly higher in inmates with LTBI. 84% of inmates diagnosed with LTBI had either completed or were on treatment. Annual TB screening may not be cost-effective in all inmate populations. Identification of factors to help target screening populations at risk for TB is critical. Social history variables did not predict LTBI in our inmate population. Additional studies are needed to identify inmates for the targeted TB testing.

  9. Accurate prediction of the functional significance of single nucleotide polymorphisms and mutations in the ABCA1 gene.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liam R Brunham

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available The human genome contains an estimated 100,000 to 300,000 DNA variants that alter an amino acid in an encoded protein. However, our ability to predict which of these variants are functionally significant is limited. We used a bioinformatics approach to define the functional significance of genetic variation in the ABCA1 gene, a cholesterol transporter crucial for the metabolism of high density lipoprotein cholesterol. To predict the functional consequence of each coding single nucleotide polymorphism and mutation in this gene, we calculated a substitution position-specific evolutionary conservation score for each variant, which considers site-specific variation among evolutionarily related proteins. To test the bioinformatics predictions experimentally, we evaluated the biochemical consequence of these sequence variants by examining the ability of cell lines stably transfected with the ABCA1 alleles to elicit cholesterol efflux. Our bioinformatics approach correctly predicted the functional impact of greater than 94% of the naturally occurring variants we assessed. The bioinformatics predictions were significantly correlated with the degree of functional impairment of ABCA1 mutations (r2 = 0.62, p = 0.0008. These results have allowed us to define the impact of genetic variation on ABCA1 function and to suggest that the in silico evolutionary approach we used may be a useful tool in general for predicting the effects of DNA variation on gene function. In addition, our data suggest that considering patterns of positive selection, along with patterns of negative selection such as evolutionary conservation, may improve our ability to predict the functional effects of amino acid variation.

  10. A hybrid solution using computational prediction and measured data to accurately determine process corrections with reduced overlay sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noyes, Ben F.; Mokaberi, Babak; Mandoy, Ram; Pate, Alex; Huijgen, Ralph; McBurney, Mike; Chen, Owen

    2017-03-01

    Reducing overlay error via an accurate APC feedback system is one of the main challenges in high volume production of the current and future nodes in the semiconductor industry. The overlay feedback system directly affects the number of dies meeting overlay specification and the number of layers requiring dedicated exposure tools through the fabrication flow. Increasing the former number and reducing the latter number is beneficial for the overall efficiency and yield of the fabrication process. An overlay feedback system requires accurate determination of the overlay error, or fingerprint, on exposed wafers in order to determine corrections to be automatically and dynamically applied to the exposure of future wafers. Since current and future nodes require correction per exposure (CPE), the resolution of the overlay fingerprint must be high enough to accommodate CPE in the overlay feedback system, or overlay control module (OCM). Determining a high resolution fingerprint from measured data requires extremely dense overlay sampling that takes a significant amount of measurement time. For static corrections this is acceptable, but in an automated dynamic correction system this method creates extreme bottlenecks for the throughput of said system as new lots have to wait until the previous lot is measured. One solution is using a less dense overlay sampling scheme and employing computationally up-sampled data to a dense fingerprint. That method uses a global fingerprint model over the entire wafer; measured localized overlay errors are therefore not always represented in its up-sampled output. This paper will discuss a hybrid system shown in Fig. 1 that combines a computationally up-sampled fingerprint with the measured data to more accurately capture the actual fingerprint, including local overlay errors. Such a hybrid system is shown to result in reduced modelled residuals while determining the fingerprint, and better on-product overlay performance.

  11. An evolutionary model-based algorithm for accurate phylogenetic breakpoint mapping and subtype prediction in HIV-1.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei L Kosakovsky Pond

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Genetically diverse pathogens (such as Human Immunodeficiency virus type 1, HIV-1 are frequently stratified into phylogenetically or immunologically defined subtypes for classification purposes. Computational identification of such subtypes is helpful in surveillance, epidemiological analysis and detection of novel variants, e.g., circulating recombinant forms in HIV-1. A number of conceptually and technically different techniques have been proposed for determining the subtype of a query sequence, but there is not a universally optimal approach. We present a model-based phylogenetic method for automatically subtyping an HIV-1 (or other viral or bacterial sequence, mapping the location of breakpoints and assigning parental sequences in recombinant strains as well as computing confidence levels for the inferred quantities. Our Subtype Classification Using Evolutionary ALgorithms (SCUEAL procedure is shown to perform very well in a variety of simulation scenarios, runs in parallel when multiple sequences are being screened, and matches or exceeds the performance of existing approaches on typical empirical cases. We applied SCUEAL to all available polymerase (pol sequences from two large databases, the Stanford Drug Resistance database and the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Comparing with subtypes which had previously been assigned revealed that a minor but substantial (approximately 5% fraction of pure subtype sequences may in fact be within- or inter-subtype recombinants. A free implementation of SCUEAL is provided as a module for the HyPhy package and the Datamonkey web server. Our method is especially useful when an accurate automatic classification of an unknown strain is desired, and is positioned to complement and extend faster but less accurate methods. Given the increasingly frequent use of HIV subtype information in studies focusing on the effect of subtype on treatment, clinical outcome, pathogenicity and vaccine design, the importance

  12. MFPred: Rapid and accurate prediction of protein-peptide recognition multispecificity using self-consistent mean field theory.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliza B Rubenstein

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Multispecificity-the ability of a single receptor protein molecule to interact with multiple substrates-is a hallmark of molecular recognition at protein-protein and protein-peptide interfaces, including enzyme-substrate complexes. The ability to perform structure-based prediction of multispecificity would aid in the identification of novel enzyme substrates, protein interaction partners, and enable design of novel enzymes targeted towards alternative substrates. The relatively slow speed of current biophysical, structure-based methods limits their use for prediction and, especially, design of multispecificity. Here, we develop a rapid, flexible-backbone self-consistent mean field theory-based technique, MFPred, for multispecificity modeling at protein-peptide interfaces. We benchmark our method by predicting experimentally determined peptide specificity profiles for a range of receptors: protease and kinase enzymes, and protein recognition modules including SH2, SH3, MHC Class I and PDZ domains. We observe robust recapitulation of known specificities for all receptor-peptide complexes, and comparison with other methods shows that MFPred results in equivalent or better prediction accuracy with a ~10-1000-fold decrease in computational expense. We find that modeling bound peptide backbone flexibility is key to the observed accuracy of the method. We used MFPred for predicting with high accuracy the impact of receptor-side mutations on experimentally determined multispecificity of a protease enzyme. Our approach should enable the design of a wide range of altered receptor proteins with programmed multispecificities.

  13. Accurate Traffic Flow Prediction in Heterogeneous Vehicular Networks in an Intelligent Transport System Using a Supervised Non-Parametric Classifier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hesham El-Sayed

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Heterogeneous vehicular networks (HETVNETs evolve from vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs, which allow vehicles to always be connected so as to obtain safety services within intelligent transportation systems (ITSs. The services and data provided by HETVNETs should be neither interrupted nor delayed. Therefore, Quality of Service (QoS improvement of HETVNETs is one of the topics attracting the attention of researchers and the manufacturing community. Several methodologies and frameworks have been devised by researchers to address QoS-prediction service issues. In this paper, to improve QoS, we evaluate various traffic characteristics of HETVNETs and propose a new supervised learning model to capture knowledge on all possible traffic patterns. This model is a refinement of support vector machine (SVM kernels with a radial basis function (RBF. The proposed model produces better results than SVMs, and outperforms other prediction methods used in a traffic context, as it has lower computational complexity and higher prediction accuracy.

  14. Modeling Patient No-Show History and Predicting Future Outpatient Appointment Behavior in the Veterans Health Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goffman, Rachel M; Harris, Shannon L; May, Jerrold H; Milicevic, Aleksandra S; Monte, Robert J; Myaskovsky, Larissa; Rodriguez, Keri L; Tjader, Youxu C; Vargas, Dominic L

    2017-05-01

    Missed appointments reduce the efficiency of the health care system and negatively impact access to care for all patients. Identifying patients at risk for missing an appointment could help health care systems and providers better target interventions to reduce patient no-shows. Our aim was to develop and test a predictive model that identifies patients that have a high probability of missing their outpatient appointments. Demographic information, appointment characteristics, and attendance history were drawn from the existing data sets from four Veterans Affairs health care facilities within six separate service areas. Past attendance behavior was modeled using an empirical Markov model based on up to 10 previous appointments. Using logistic regression, we developed 24 unique predictive models. We implemented the models and tested an intervention strategy using live reminder calls placed 24, 48, and 72 hours ahead of time. The pilot study targeted 1,754 high-risk patients, whose probability of missing an appointment was predicted to be at least 0.2. Our results indicate that three variables were consistently related to a patient's no-show probability in all 24 models: past attendance behavior, the age of the appointment, and having multiple appointments scheduled on that day. After the intervention was implemented, the no-show rate in the pilot group was reduced from the expected value of 35% to 12.16% (p value < 0.0001). The predictive model accurately identified patients who were more likely to miss their appointments. Applying the model in practice enables clinics to apply more intensive intervention measures to high-risk patients. Reprint & Copyright © 2017 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  15. Is demography destiny? Application of machine learning techniques to accurately predict population health outcomes from a minimal demographic dataset.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Luo

    Full Text Available For years, we have relied on population surveys to keep track of regional public health statistics, including the prevalence of non-communicable diseases. Because of the cost and limitations of such surveys, we often do not have the up-to-date data on health outcomes of a region. In this paper, we examined the feasibility of inferring regional health outcomes from socio-demographic data that are widely available and timely updated through national censuses and community surveys. Using data for 50 American states (excluding Washington DC from 2007 to 2012, we constructed a machine-learning model to predict the prevalence of six non-communicable disease (NCD outcomes (four NCDs and two major clinical risk factors, based on population socio-demographic characteristics from the American Community Survey. We found that regional prevalence estimates for non-communicable diseases can be reasonably predicted. The predictions were highly correlated with the observed data, in both the states included in the derivation model (median correlation 0.88 and those excluded from the development for use as a completely separated validation sample (median correlation 0.85, demonstrating that the model had sufficient external validity to make good predictions, based on demographics alone, for areas not included in the model development. This highlights both the utility of this sophisticated approach to model development, and the vital importance of simple socio-demographic characteristics as both indicators and determinants of chronic disease.

  16. Is demography destiny? Application of machine learning techniques to accurately predict population health outcomes from a minimal demographic dataset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Wei; Nguyen, Thin; Nichols, Melanie; Tran, Truyen; Rana, Santu; Gupta, Sunil; Phung, Dinh; Venkatesh, Svetha; Allender, Steve

    2015-01-01

    For years, we have relied on population surveys to keep track of regional public health statistics, including the prevalence of non-communicable diseases. Because of the cost and limitations of such surveys, we often do not have the up-to-date data on health outcomes of a region. In this paper, we examined the feasibility of inferring regional health outcomes from socio-demographic data that are widely available and timely updated through national censuses and community surveys. Using data for 50 American states (excluding Washington DC) from 2007 to 2012, we constructed a machine-learning model to predict the prevalence of six non-communicable disease (NCD) outcomes (four NCDs and two major clinical risk factors), based on population socio-demographic characteristics from the American Community Survey. We found that regional prevalence estimates for non-communicable diseases can be reasonably predicted. The predictions were highly correlated with the observed data, in both the states included in the derivation model (median correlation 0.88) and those excluded from the development for use as a completely separated validation sample (median correlation 0.85), demonstrating that the model had sufficient external validity to make good predictions, based on demographics alone, for areas not included in the model development. This highlights both the utility of this sophisticated approach to model development, and the vital importance of simple socio-demographic characteristics as both indicators and determinants of chronic disease.

  17. Microdosing of a Carbon-14 Labeled Protein in Healthy Volunteers Accurately Predicts Its Pharmacokinetics at Therapeutic Dosages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vlaming, M.L.; Duijn, E. van; Dillingh, M.R.; Brands, R.; Windhorst, A.D.; Hendrikse, N.H.; Bosgra, S.; Burggraaf, J.; Koning, M.C. de; Fidder, A.; Mocking, J.A.; Sandman, H.; Ligt, R.A. de; Fabriek, B.O.; Pasman, W.J.; Seinen, W.; Alves, T.; Carrondo, M.; Peixoto, C.; Peeters, P.A.; Vaes, W.H.

    2015-01-01

    Preclinical development of new biological entities (NBEs), such as human protein therapeutics, requires considerable expenditure of time and costs. Poor prediction of pharmacokinetics in humans further reduces net efficiency. In this study, we show for the first time that pharmacokinetic data of

  18. Accurate prediction of the toxicity of benzoic acid compounds in mice via oral without using any computer codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keshavarz, Mohammad Hossein; Gharagheizi, Farhad; Shokrolahi, Arash; Zakinejad, Sajjad

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A novel method is introduced for desk calculation of toxicity of benzoic acid derivatives. ► There is no need to use QSAR and QSTR methods, which are based on computer codes. ► The predicted results of 58 compounds are more reliable than those predicted by QSTR method. ► The present method gives good predictions for further 324 benzoic acid compounds. - Abstract: Most of benzoic acid derivatives are toxic, which may cause serious public health and environmental problems. Two novel simple and reliable models are introduced for desk calculations of the toxicity of benzoic acid compounds in mice via oral LD 50 with more reliance on their answers as one could attach to the more complex outputs. They require only elemental composition and molecular fragments without using any computer codes. The first model is based on only the number of carbon and hydrogen atoms, which can be improved by several molecular fragments in the second model. For 57 benzoic compounds, where the computed results of quantitative structure–toxicity relationship (QSTR) were recently reported, the predicted results of two simple models of present method are more reliable than QSTR computations. The present simple method is also tested with further 324 benzoic acid compounds including complex molecular structures, which confirm good forecasting ability of the second model.

  19. Exchange-Hole Dipole Dispersion Model for Accurate Energy Ranking in Molecular Crystal Structure Prediction II: Nonplanar Molecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittleton, Sarah R; Otero-de-la-Roza, A; Johnson, Erin R

    2017-11-14

    The crystal structure prediction (CSP) of a given compound from its molecular diagram is a fundamental challenge in computational chemistry with implications in relevant technological fields. A key component of CSP is the method to calculate the lattice energy of a crystal, which allows the ranking of candidate structures. This work is the second part of our investigation to assess the potential of the exchange-hole dipole moment (XDM) dispersion model for crystal structure prediction. In this article, we study the relatively large, nonplanar, mostly flexible molecules in the first five blind tests held by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre. Four of the seven experimental structures are predicted as the energy minimum, and thermal effects are demonstrated to have a large impact on the ranking of at least another compound. As in the first part of this series, delocalization error affects the results for a single crystal (compound X), in this case by detrimentally overstabilizing the π-conjugated conformation of the monomer. Overall, B86bPBE-XDM correctly predicts 16 of the 21 compounds in the five blind tests, a result similar to the one obtained using the best CSP method available to date (dispersion-corrected PW91 by Neumann et al.). Perhaps more importantly, the systems for which B86bPBE-XDM fails to predict the experimental structure as the energy minimum are mostly the same as with Neumann's method, which suggests that similar difficulties (absence of vibrational free energy corrections, delocalization error,...) are not limited to B86bPBE-XDM but affect GGA-based DFT-methods in general. Our work confirms B86bPBE-XDM as an excellent option for crystal energy ranking in CSP and offers a guide to identify crystals (organic salts, conjugated flexible systems) where difficulties may appear.

  20. Can Vrancea earthquakes be accurately predicted from unusual bio-system behavior and seismic-electromagnetic records?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enescu, D.; Chitaru, C.; Enescu, B.D.

    1999-01-01

    The relevance of bio-seismic research for the short-term prediction of strong Vrancea earthquakes is underscored. An unusual animal behavior before and during Vrancea earthquakes is described and illustrated in the individual case of the major earthquake of March 4, 1977. Several hypotheses to account for the uncommon behavior of bio-systems in relation to earthquakes in general and strong Vrancea earthquakes in particular are discussed in the second section. It is reminded that promising preliminary results concerning the identification of seismic-electromagnetic precursor signals have been obtained in the Vrancea seismogenic area using special, highly sensitive equipment. The need to correlate bio-seismic and seismic-electromagnetic researches is evident. Further investigations are suggested and urgent steps are proposed in order to achieve a successful short-term prediction of strong Vrancea earthquakes. (authors)

  1. Unsteady Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes: toward accurate predictions in fuel-bundles and T-junctions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merzari, E.; Ninokata, H.; Baglietto, E.

    2008-01-01

    Traditional steady-state simulation and turbulence modelling are not always reliable. Even in simple flows, the results can be not accurate when particular conditions occur. Examples are buoyancy, flow oscillations, and turbulent mixing. Often, unsteady simulations are necessary, but they tend to be computationally not affordable. The Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) approach holds promise to be less computational expensive than Large Eddy Simulation (LES) or Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS), reaching a considerable degree of accuracy. Moreover, URANS methodologies do not need complex boundary formulations for the inlet and the outlet like LES or DNS. The Test cases for this methodology will be Fuel Bundles and T-junctions. Tight-Fuel Rod-Bundles present large scale coherent structures than cannot be taken into account by a simple steady-state simulation. T-junctions where a hot fluid and a cold fluid mix present temperature fluctuations and therefore thermal fatigue. For both cases the capacity of the methodology to reproduce the flow field are assessed and it is evaluated that URANS holds promise to be the industrial standard in nuclear engineering applications that do not involve buoyancy. The codes employed are STAR-CD 3.26 and 4.06. (author)

  2. Accuration of Time Series and Spatial Interpolation Method for Prediction of Precipitation Distribution on the Geographical Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasetyo, S. Y. J.; Hartomo, K. D.

    2018-01-01

    The Spatial Plan of the Province of Central Java 2009-2029 identifies that most regencies or cities in Central Java Province are very vulnerable to landslide disaster. The data are also supported by other data from Indonesian Disaster Risk Index (In Indonesia called Indeks Risiko Bencana Indonesia) 2013 that suggest that some areas in Central Java Province exhibit a high risk of natural disasters. This research aims to develop an application architecture and analysis methodology in GIS to predict and to map rainfall distribution. We propose our GIS architectural application of “Multiplatform Architectural Spatiotemporal” and data analysis methods of “Triple Exponential Smoothing” and “Spatial Interpolation” as our significant scientific contribution. This research consists of 2 (two) parts, namely attribute data prediction using TES method and spatial data prediction using Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method. We conduct our research in 19 subdistricts in the Boyolali Regency, Central Java Province, Indonesia. Our main research data is the biweekly rainfall data in 2000-2016 Climatology, Meteorology, and Geophysics Agency (In Indonesia called Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika) of Central Java Province and Laboratory of Plant Disease Observations Region V Surakarta, Central Java. The application architecture and analytical methodology of “Multiplatform Architectural Spatiotemporal” and spatial data analysis methodology of “Triple Exponential Smoothing” and “Spatial Interpolation” can be developed as a GIS application framework of rainfall distribution for various applied fields. The comparison between the TES and IDW methods show that relative to time series prediction, spatial interpolation exhibit values that are approaching actual. Spatial interpolation is closer to actual data because computed values are the rainfall data of the nearest location or the neighbour of sample values. However, the IDW’s main weakness is that some

  3. A Simple PB/LIE Free Energy Function Accurately Predicts the Peptide Binding Specificity of the Tiam1 PDZ Domain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panel, Nicolas; Sun, Young Joo; Fuentes, Ernesto J; Simonson, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    PDZ domains generally bind short amino acid sequences at the C-terminus of target proteins, and short peptides can be used as inhibitors or model ligands. Here, we used experimental binding assays and molecular dynamics simulations to characterize 51 complexes involving the Tiam1 PDZ domain and to test the performance of a semi-empirical free energy function. The free energy function combined a Poisson-Boltzmann (PB) continuum electrostatic term, a van der Waals interaction energy, and a surface area term. Each term was empirically weighted, giving a Linear Interaction Energy or "PB/LIE" free energy. The model yielded a mean unsigned deviation of 0.43 kcal/mol and a Pearson correlation of 0.64 between experimental and computed free energies, which was superior to a Null model that assumes all complexes have the same affinity. Analyses of the models support several experimental observations that indicate the orientation of the α 2 helix is a critical determinant for peptide specificity. The models were also used to predict binding free energies for nine new variants, corresponding to point mutants of the Syndecan1 and Caspr4 peptides. The predictions did not reveal improved binding; however, they suggest that an unnatural amino acid could be used to increase protease resistance and peptide lifetimes in vivo . The overall performance of the model should allow its use in the design of new PDZ ligands in the future.

  4. An application of a relational database system for high-throughput prediction of elemental compositions from accurate mass values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakurai, Nozomu; Ara, Takeshi; Kanaya, Shigehiko; Nakamura, Yukiko; Iijima, Yoko; Enomoto, Mitsuo; Motegi, Takeshi; Aoki, Koh; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Shibata, Daisuke

    2013-01-15

    High-accuracy mass values detected by high-resolution mass spectrometry analysis enable prediction of elemental compositions, and thus are used for metabolite annotations in metabolomic studies. Here, we report an application of a relational database to significantly improve the rate of elemental composition predictions. By searching a database of pre-calculated elemental compositions with fixed kinds and numbers of atoms, the approach eliminates redundant evaluations of the same formula that occur in repeated calculations with other tools. When our approach is compared with HR2, which is one of the fastest tools available, our database search times were at least 109 times shorter than those of HR2. When a solid-state drive (SSD) was applied, the search time was 488 times shorter at 5 ppm mass tolerance and 1833 times at 0.1 ppm. Even if the search by HR2 was performed with 8 threads in a high-spec Windows 7 PC, the database search times were at least 26 and 115 times shorter without and with the SSD. These improvements were enhanced in a low spec Windows XP PC. We constructed a web service 'MFSearcher' to query the database in a RESTful manner. Available for free at http://webs2.kazusa.or.jp/mfsearcher. The web service is implemented in Java, MySQL, Apache and Tomcat, with all major browsers supported. sakurai@kazusa.or.jp Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  5. A Simple PB/LIE Free Energy Function Accurately Predicts the Peptide Binding Specificity of the Tiam1 PDZ Domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Panel

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available PDZ domains generally bind short amino acid sequences at the C-terminus of target proteins, and short peptides can be used as inhibitors or model ligands. Here, we used experimental binding assays and molecular dynamics simulations to characterize 51 complexes involving the Tiam1 PDZ domain and to test the performance of a semi-empirical free energy function. The free energy function combined a Poisson-Boltzmann (PB continuum electrostatic term, a van der Waals interaction energy, and a surface area term. Each term was empirically weighted, giving a Linear Interaction Energy or “PB/LIE” free energy. The model yielded a mean unsigned deviation of 0.43 kcal/mol and a Pearson correlation of 0.64 between experimental and computed free energies, which was superior to a Null model that assumes all complexes have the same affinity. Analyses of the models support several experimental observations that indicate the orientation of the α2 helix is a critical determinant for peptide specificity. The models were also used to predict binding free energies for nine new variants, corresponding to point mutants of the Syndecan1 and Caspr4 peptides. The predictions did not reveal improved binding; however, they suggest that an unnatural amino acid could be used to increase protease resistance and peptide lifetimes in vivo. The overall performance of the model should allow its use in the design of new PDZ ligands in the future.

  6. A 3D-CFD code for accurate prediction of fluid flows and fluid forces in seals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athavale, M. M.; Przekwas, A. J.; Hendricks, R. C.

    1994-01-01

    Current and future turbomachinery requires advanced seal configurations to control leakage, inhibit mixing of incompatible fluids and to control the rotodynamic response. In recognition of a deficiency in the existing predictive methodology for seals, a seven year effort was established in 1990 by NASA's Office of Aeronautics Exploration and Technology, under the Earth-to-Orbit Propulsion program, to develop validated Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) concepts, codes and analyses for seals. The effort will provide NASA and the U.S. Aerospace Industry with advanced CFD scientific codes and industrial codes for analyzing and designing turbomachinery seals. An advanced 3D CFD cylindrical seal code has been developed, incorporating state-of-the-art computational methodology for flow analysis in straight, tapered and stepped seals. Relevant computational features of the code include: stationary/rotating coordinates, cylindrical and general Body Fitted Coordinates (BFC) systems, high order differencing schemes, colocated variable arrangement, advanced turbulence models, incompressible/compressible flows, and moving grids. This paper presents the current status of code development, code demonstration for predicting rotordynamic coefficients, numerical parametric study of entrance loss coefficients for generic annular seals, and plans for code extensions to labyrinth, damping, and other seal configurations.

  7. Number of bodily symptoms predicts outcome more accurately than health anxiety in patients attending neurology, cardiology, and gastroenterology clinics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Judy; Fiddler, Maggie; Kapur, Navneet; Wells, Adrian; Tomenson, Barbara; Creed, Francis

    2006-04-01

    In consecutive new outpatients, we aimed to assess whether somatization and health anxiety predicted health care use and quality of life 6 months later in all patients or in those without demonstrable abnormalities. On the first clinic visit, participants completed the Illness Perception Questionnaire (IPQ), the Health Anxiety Questionnaire (HAQ), and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Outcome was assessed as: (a) the number of medical consultations over the subsequent 6 months, extracted from medical records, and (b) Short-Form Health Survey 36 (SF36) physical component score 6 months after index clinic visit. A total of 295 patients were recruited (77% response rate), and medical consultation data were available for 275. The number of bodily symptoms was associated with both outcomes in linear fashion (Psomatization and hypochondriasis.

  8. Prostate cancer risk prediction based on complete prostate cancer family history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albright, Frederick; Stephenson, Robert A; Agarwal, Neeraj; Teerlink, Craig C; Lowrance, William T; Farnham, James M; Albright, Lisa A Cannon

    2015-03-01

    Prostate cancer (PC) relative risks (RRs) are typically estimated based on status of close relatives or presence of any affected relatives. This study provides RR estimates using extensive and specific PC family history. A retrospective population-based study was undertaken to estimate RRs for PC based on complete family history of PC. A total of 635,443 males, all with ancestral genealogy data, were analyzed. RRs for PC were determined based upon PC rates estimated from males with no PC family history (without PC in first, second, or third degree relatives). RRs were determined for a variety of constellations, for example, number of first through third degree relatives; named (grandfather, father, uncle, cousins, brothers); maternal, paternal relationships, and age of onset. In the 635,443 males analyzed, 18,105 had PC. First-degree RRs ranged from 2.46 (=1 first-degree relative affected, CI = 2.39-2.53) to 7.65 (=4 first-degree relatives affected, CI = 6.28-9.23). Second-degree RRs for probands with 0 affected first-degree relatives ranged from 1.51 (≥1 second-degree relative affected, CI = 1.47-1.56) to 3.09 (≥5 second-degree relatives affected, CI = 2.32-4.03). Third-degree RRs with 0 affected first- and 0 affected second-degree relatives ranged from 1.15 (≥1 affected third-degree relative, CI = 1.12-1.19) to 1.50 (≥5 affected third-degree relatives, CI = 1.35-1.66). RRs based on age at diagnosis were higher for earlier age at diagnoses; for example, RR = 5.54 for ≥1 first-degree relative diagnosed before age 50 years (CI = 1.12-1.19) and RR = 1.78 for >1 second-degree relative diagnosed before age 50 years, CI = 1.33, 2.33. RRs for equivalent maternal versus paternal family history were not significantly different. A more complete PC family history using close and distant relatives and age at diagnosis results in a wider range of estimates of individual RR that are potentially more accurate than RRs estimated

  9. Automatic Earthquake Shear Stress Measurement Method Developed for Accurate Time- Prediction Analysis of Forthcoming Major Earthquakes Along Shallow Active Faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serata, S.

    2006-12-01

    The Serata Stressmeter has been developed to measure and monitor earthquake shear stress build-up along shallow active faults. The development work made in the past 25 years has established the Stressmeter as an automatic stress measurement system to study timing of forthcoming major earthquakes in support of the current earthquake prediction studies based on statistical analysis of seismological observations. In early 1982, a series of major Man-made earthquakes (magnitude 4.5-5.0) suddenly occurred in an area over deep underground potash mine in Saskatchewan, Canada. By measuring underground stress condition of the mine, the direct cause of the earthquake was disclosed. The cause was successfully eliminated by controlling the stress condition of the mine. The Japanese government was interested in this development and the Stressmeter was introduced to the Japanese government research program for earthquake stress studies. In Japan the Stressmeter was first utilized for direct measurement of the intrinsic lateral tectonic stress gradient G. The measurement, conducted at the Mt. Fuji Underground Research Center of the Japanese government, disclosed the constant natural gradients of maximum and minimum lateral stresses in an excellent agreement with the theoretical value, i.e., G = 0.25. All the conventional methods of overcoring, hydrofracturing and deformation, which were introduced to compete with the Serata method, failed demonstrating the fundamental difficulties of the conventional methods. The intrinsic lateral stress gradient determined by the Stressmeter for the Japanese government was found to be the same with all the other measurements made by the Stressmeter in Japan. The stress measurement results obtained by the major international stress measurement work in the Hot Dry Rock Projects conducted in USA, England and Germany are found to be in good agreement with the Stressmeter results obtained in Japan. Based on this broad agreement, a solid geomechanical

  10. Does 99mTc MAA study accurately predict the Hepatopulmonary shunt fraction of 90Y theraspheres?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jha, Ashish; Zade, A.; Monteiro, P.; Shah, S.; Purandare, N.C.; Rangarajan, V.; Kulkarni, S.; Kulkarni, A.; Shetty, Nitin

    2010-01-01

    Full text: Transarterial-radioembolisation (TARE) is FDA approved therapeutic option for primary and metastatic liver malignancy when patient is inoperable; which in addition to the embolic effect (as seen with Transarterial- chemoembolisation-TACE) also gives the benefit of selectively irradiation to the target lesions with minimal toxicity to adjacent normal hepatocytes. However there is a risk of shunting of radioactive spheres to pulmonary circulation and subsequent pulmonary toxicity if the hepatopulmonary shunt fraction is high. The estimated lung dose becomes the limiting factor for the dose that can be delivered trans-arterially for radioembolisation of hepatic neoplasms.This is achieved by a pretreatment 99m Tc MAA study. Aim: The accuracy of 99m Tc-MAA Scintigraphy to predict the hepatopulmonary shunt fraction of 90 Y Theraspheres was evaluated by comparing it with that obtained by post therapeutic Bremsstrahlung imaging. Materials and Methods: Patients: 13 patients who underwent 90 Y Theraspheres radioembolisation of hepatic malignancies (both primary and secondary) underwent pre therapeutic 99m Tc- MAA Scintigraphy and post therapeutic 90 Y Bremsstrahlung Scintigraphy. 10-12 mCi of freshly prepared 99m Tc MAA was administered by selective hepatic artery cauterization. Planar and tomographic images were acquired within 1hr of radiopharmaceutical administration. IMAGE ACQUISITION 99m Tc MAA static images were acquired in 256 x 256 matrix (1000 KCnts) and SPECT were a 128 x 128 matrix with 64 frames (20 s/frame). The scan parameters for CT were 140 kV, 2.5 mAs, and 1-cm slices. SPECT images were corrected for attenuation and scatter. Post therapeutic 90 Y Bremsstrahlung imaging was done with HEGP collimator with photo peak centered at 140 KeV - 64.29% and +56% window width. SPECT/CT images were obtained using a dual-detector gamma-camera with a mounted 1-row CT scanner (Infinia Hawkeye; GE medical systems) to evaluate hepatic and extra hepatic tracer

  11. Combining Mean and Standard Deviation of Hounsfield Unit Measurements from Preoperative CT Allows More Accurate Prediction of Urinary Stone Composition Than Mean Hounsfield Units Alone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tailly, Thomas; Larish, Yaniv; Nadeau, Brandon; Violette, Philippe; Glickman, Leonard; Olvera-Posada, Daniel; Alenezi, Husain; Amann, Justin; Denstedt, John; Razvi, Hassan

    2016-04-01

    The mineral composition of a urinary stone may influence its surgical and medical treatment. Previous attempts at identifying stone composition based on mean Hounsfield Units (HUm) have had varied success. We aimed to evaluate the additional use of standard deviation of HU (HUsd) to more accurately predict stone composition. We identified patients from two centers who had undergone urinary stone treatment between 2006 and 2013 and had mineral stone analysis and a computed tomography (CT) available. HUm and HUsd of the stones were compared with ANOVA. Receiver operative characteristic analysis with area under the curve (AUC), Youden index, and likelihood ratio calculations were performed. Data were available for 466 patients. The major components were calcium oxalate monohydrate (COM), uric acid, hydroxyapatite, struvite, brushite, cystine, and CO dihydrate (COD) in 41.4%, 19.3%, 12.4%, 7.5%, 5.8%, 5.4%, and 4.7% of patients, respectively. The HUm of UA and Br was significantly lower and higher than the HUm of any other stone type, respectively. HUm and HUsd were most accurate in predicting uric acid with an AUC of 0.969 and 0.851, respectively. The combined use of HUm and HUsd resulted in increased positive predictive value and higher likelihood ratios for identifying a stone's mineral composition for all stone types but COM. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of CT data aiding in the prediction of brushite stone composition. Both HUm and HUsd can help predict stone composition and their combined use results in higher likelihood ratios influencing probability.

  12. Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

    2014-03-01

    There is an urgent need to develop effective vulnerability assessments for evaluating the conservation status of species in a changing climate. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of species to climate change based on the expectation that established assessments such as the IUCN Red List need revising or superseding in light of the threat that climate change brings. However, although previous studies have identified ecological and life history attributes that characterize declining species or those listed as threatened, no study so far has undertaken a quantitative analysis of the attributes that cause species to be at high risk of extinction specifically due to climate change. We developed a simulation approach based on generic life history types to show here that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using a mixture of spatial and demographic variables that can be measured in the present day without the need for complex forecasting models. Most of the variables we found to be important for predicting extinction risk, including occupied area and population size, are already used in species conservation assessments, indicating that present systems may be better able to identify species vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Therefore, although climate change brings many new conservation challenges, we find that it may not be fundamentally different from other threats in terms of assessing extinction risks.

  13. Damage Level Prediction of Reinforced Concrete Building Based on Earthquake Time History Using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suryanita Reni

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The strong motion earthquake could cause the building damage in case of the building not considered in the earthquake design of the building. The study aims to predict the damage-level of building due to earthquake using Artificial Neural Networks method. The building model is a reinforced concrete building with ten floors and height between floors is 3.6 m. The model building received a load of the earthquake based on nine earthquake time history records. Each time history scaled to 0,5g, 0,75g, and 1,0g. The Artificial Neural Networks are designed in 4 architectural models using the MATLAB program. Model 1 used the displacement, velocity, and acceleration as input and Model 2 used the displacement only as the input. Model 3 used the velocity as input, and Model 4 used the acceleration just as input. The output of the Neural Networks is the damage level of the building with the category of Safe (1, Immediate Occupancy (2, Life Safety (3 or in a condition of Collapse Prevention (4. According to the results, Neural Network models have the prediction rate of the damage level between 85%-95%. Therefore, one of the solutions for analyzing the structural responses and the damage level promptly and efficiently when the earthquake occurred is by using Artificial Neural Network

  14. Integrating metabolic performance, thermal tolerance, and plasticity enables for more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to acute and chronic effects of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magozzi, Sarah; Calosi, Piero

    2015-01-01

    Predicting species vulnerability to global warming requires a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of sublethal and lethal thermal tolerances. To date, however, most studies investigating species physiological responses to increasing temperature have focused on the underlying physiological traits of either acute or chronic tolerance in isolation. Here we propose an integrative, synthetic approach including the investigation of multiple physiological traits (metabolic performance and thermal tolerance), and their plasticity, to provide more accurate and balanced predictions on species and assemblage vulnerability to both acute and chronic effects of global warming. We applied this approach to more accurately elucidate relative species vulnerability to warming within an assemblage of six caridean prawns occurring in the same geographic, hence macroclimatic, region, but living in different thermal habitats. Prawns were exposed to four incubation temperatures (10, 15, 20 and 25 °C) for 7 days, their metabolic rates and upper thermal limits were measured, and plasticity was calculated according to the concept of Reaction Norms, as well as Q10 for metabolism. Compared to species occupying narrower/more stable thermal niches, species inhabiting broader/more variable thermal environments (including the invasive Palaemon macrodactylus) are likely to be less vulnerable to extreme acute thermal events as a result of their higher upper thermal limits. Nevertheless, they may be at greater risk from chronic exposure to warming due to the greater metabolic costs they incur. Indeed, a trade-off between acute and chronic tolerance was apparent in the assemblage investigated. However, the invasive species P. macrodactylus represents an exception to this pattern, showing elevated thermal limits and plasticity of these limits, as well as a high metabolic control. In general, integrating multiple proxies for species physiological acute and chronic responses to increasing

  15. Clinical history and biologic age predicted falls better than objective functional tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerdhem, Paul; Ringsberg, Karin A M; Akesson, Kristina; Obrant, Karl J

    2005-03-01

    Fall risk assessment is important because the consequences, such as a fracture, may be devastating. The objective of this study was to find the test or tests that best predicted falls in a population-based sample of elderly women. The fall-predictive ability of a questionnaire, a subjective estimate of biologic age and objective functional tests (gait, balance [Romberg and sway test], thigh muscle strength, and visual acuity) were compared in 984 randomly selected women, all 75 years of age. A recalled fall was the most important predictor for future falls. Only recalled falls and intake of psycho-active drugs independently predicted future falls. Women with at least five of the most important fall predictors (previous falls, conditions affecting the balance, tendency to fall, intake of psychoactive medication, inability to stand on one leg, high biologic age) had an odds ratio of 11.27 (95% confidence interval 4.61-27.60) for a fall (sensitivity 70%, specificity 79%). The more time-consuming objective functional tests were of limited importance for fall prediction. A simple clinical history, the inability to stand on one leg, and a subjective estimate of biologic age were more important as part of the fall risk assessment.

  16. Accurate Predictions of Mean Geomagnetic Dipole Excursion and Reversal Frequencies, Mean Paleomagnetic Field Intensity, and the Radius of Earth's Core Using McLeod's Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voorhies, Coerte V.; Conrad, Joy

    1996-01-01

    The geomagnetic spatial power spectrum R(sub n)(r) is the mean square magnetic induction represented by degree n spherical harmonic coefficients of the internal scalar potential averaged over the geocentric sphere of radius r. McLeod's Rule for the magnetic field generated by Earth's core geodynamo says that the expected core surface power spectrum (R(sub nc)(c)) is inversely proportional to (2n + 1) for 1 less than n less than or equal to N(sub E). McLeod's Rule is verified by locating Earth's core with main field models of Magsat data; the estimated core radius of 3485 kn is close to the seismologic value for c of 3480 km. McLeod's Rule and similar forms are then calibrated with the model values of R(sub n) for 3 less than or = n less than or = 12. Extrapolation to the degree 1 dipole predicts the expectation value of Earth's dipole moment to be about 5.89 x 10(exp 22) Am(exp 2)rms (74.5% of the 1980 value) and the expected geomagnetic intensity to be about 35.6 (mu)T rms at Earth's surface. Archeo- and paleomagnetic field intensity data show these and related predictions to be reasonably accurate. The probability distribution chi(exp 2) with 2n+1 degrees of freedom is assigned to (2n + 1)R(sub nc)/(R(sub nc). Extending this to the dipole implies that an exceptionally weak absolute dipole moment (less than or = 20% of the 1980 value) will exist during 2.5% of geologic time. The mean duration for such major geomagnetic dipole power excursions, one quarter of which feature durable axial dipole reversal, is estimated from the modern dipole power time-scale and the statistical model of excursions. The resulting mean excursion duration of 2767 years forces us to predict an average of 9.04 excursions per million years, 2.26 axial dipole reversals per million years, and a mean reversal duration of 5533 years. Paleomagnetic data show these predictions to be quite accurate. McLeod's Rule led to accurate predictions of Earth's core radius, mean paleomagnetic field

  17. Prediction of collision cross section and retention time for broad scope screening in gradient reversed-phase liquid chromatography-ion mobility-high resolution accurate mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollerup, Christian Brinch; Mardal, Marie; Dalsgaard, Petur Weihe; Linnet, Kristian; Barron, Leon Patrick

    2018-03-23

    Exact mass, retention time (RT), and collision cross section (CCS) are used as identification parameters in liquid chromatography coupled to ion mobility high resolution accurate mass spectrometry (LC-IM-HRMS). Targeted screening analyses are now more flexible and can be expanded for suspect and non-targeted screening. These allow for tentative identification of new compounds, and in-silico predicted reference values are used for improving confidence and filtering false-positive identifications. In this work, predictions of both RT and CCS values are performed with machine learning using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Prediction was based on molecular descriptors, 827 RTs, and 357 CCS values from pharmaceuticals, drugs of abuse, and their metabolites. ANN models for the prediction of RT or CCS separately were examined, and the potential to predict both from a single model was investigated for the first time. The optimized combined RT-CCS model was a four-layered multi-layer perceptron ANN, and the 95th prediction error percentiles were within 2 min RT error and 5% relative CCS error for the external validation set (n = 36) and the full RT-CCS dataset (n = 357). 88.6% (n = 733) of predicted RTs were within 2 min error for the full dataset. Overall, when using 2 min RT error and 5% relative CCS error, 91.9% (n = 328) of compounds were retained, while 99.4% (n = 355) were retained when using at least one of these thresholds. This combined prediction approach can therefore be useful for rapid suspect/non-targeted screening involving HRMS, and will support current workflows. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Reliable and accurate point-based prediction of cumulative infiltration using soil readily available characteristics: A comparison between GMDH, ANN, and MLR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmati, Mehdi

    2017-08-01

    Developing accurate and reliable pedo-transfer functions (PTFs) to predict soil non-readily available characteristics is one of the most concerned topic in soil science and selecting more appropriate predictors is a crucial factor in PTFs' development. Group method of data handling (GMDH), which finds an approximate relationship between a set of input and output variables, not only provide an explicit procedure to select the most essential PTF input variables, but also results in more accurate and reliable estimates than other mostly applied methodologies. Therefore, the current research was aimed to apply GMDH in comparison with multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) to develop several PTFs to predict soil cumulative infiltration point-basely at specific time intervals (0.5-45 min) using soil readily available characteristics (RACs). In this regard, soil infiltration curves as well as several soil RACs including soil primary particles (clay (CC), silt (Si), and sand (Sa)), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), bulk (Db) and particle (Dp) densities, organic carbon (OC), wet-aggregate stability (WAS), electrical conductivity (EC), and soil antecedent (θi) and field saturated (θfs) water contents were measured at 134 different points in Lighvan watershed, northwest of Iran. Then, applying GMDH, MLR, and ANN methodologies, several PTFs have been developed to predict cumulative infiltrations using two sets of selected soil RACs including and excluding Ks. According to the test data, results showed that developed PTFs by GMDH and MLR procedures using all soil RACs including Ks resulted in more accurate (with E values of 0.673-0.963) and reliable (with CV values lower than 11 percent) predictions of cumulative infiltrations at different specific time steps. In contrast, ANN procedure had lower accuracy (with E values of 0.356-0.890) and reliability (with CV values up to 50 percent) compared to GMDH and MLR. The results also revealed

  19. Predicting College Students' First Year Success: Should Soft Skills Be Taken into Consideration to More Accurately Predict the Academic Achievement of College Freshmen?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Erica Dion

    2013-01-01

    This study presents a survey developed to measure the skills of entering college freshmen in the areas of responsibility, motivation, study habits, literacy, and stress management, and explores the predictive power of this survey as a measure of academic performance during the first semester of college. The survey was completed by 334 incoming…

  20. Noncontrast computed tomography can predict the outcome of shockwave lithotripsy via accurate stone measurement and abdominal fat distribution determination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiun-Hung Geng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Urolithiasis is a common disease of the urinary system. Extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (SWL has become one of the standard treatments for renal and ureteral stones; however, the success rates range widely and failure of stone disintegration may cause additional outlay, alternative procedures, and even complications. We used the data available from noncontrast abdominal computed tomography (NCCT to evaluate the impact of stone parameters and abdominal fat distribution on calculus-free rates following SWL. We retrospectively reviewed 328 patients who had urinary stones and had undergone SWL from August 2012 to August 2013. All of them received pre-SWL NCCT; 1 month after SWL, radiography was arranged to evaluate the condition of the fragments. These patients were classified into stone-free group and residual stone group. Unenhanced computed tomography variables, including stone attenuation, abdominal fat area, and skin-to-stone distance (SSD were analyzed. In all, 197 (60% were classified as stone-free and 132 (40% as having residual stone. The mean ages were 49.35 ± 13.22 years and 55.32 ± 13.52 years, respectively. On univariate analysis, age, stone size, stone surface area, stone attenuation, SSD, total fat area (TFA, abdominal circumference, serum creatinine, and the severity of hydronephrosis revealed statistical significance between these two groups. From multivariate logistic regression analysis, the independent parameters impacting SWL outcomes were stone size, stone attenuation, TFA, and serum creatinine. [Adjusted odds ratios and (95% confidence intervals: 9.49 (3.72–24.20, 2.25 (1.22–4.14, 2.20 (1.10–4.40, and 2.89 (1.35–6.21 respectively, all p < 0.05]. In the present study, stone size, stone attenuation, TFA and serum creatinine were four independent predictors for stone-free rates after SWL. These findings suggest that pretreatment NCCT may predict the outcomes after SWL. Consequently, we can use these

  1. Noncontrast computed tomography can predict the outcome of shockwave lithotripsy via accurate stone measurement and abdominal fat distribution determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Jiun-Hung; Tu, Hung-Pin; Shih, Paul Ming-Chen; Shen, Jung-Tsung; Jang, Mei-Yu; Wu, Wen-Jen; Li, Ching-Chia; Chou, Yii-Her; Juan, Yung-Shun

    2015-01-01

    Urolithiasis is a common disease of the urinary system. Extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (SWL) has become one of the standard treatments for renal and ureteral stones; however, the success rates range widely and failure of stone disintegration may cause additional outlay, alternative procedures, and even complications. We used the data available from noncontrast abdominal computed tomography (NCCT) to evaluate the impact of stone parameters and abdominal fat distribution on calculus-free rates following SWL. We retrospectively reviewed 328 patients who had urinary stones and had undergone SWL from August 2012 to August 2013. All of them received pre-SWL NCCT; 1 month after SWL, radiography was arranged to evaluate the condition of the fragments. These patients were classified into stone-free group and residual stone group. Unenhanced computed tomography variables, including stone attenuation, abdominal fat area, and skin-to-stone distance (SSD) were analyzed. In all, 197 (60%) were classified as stone-free and 132 (40%) as having residual stone. The mean ages were 49.35 ± 13.22 years and 55.32 ± 13.52 years, respectively. On univariate analysis, age, stone size, stone surface area, stone attenuation, SSD, total fat area (TFA), abdominal circumference, serum creatinine, and the severity of hydronephrosis revealed statistical significance between these two groups. From multivariate logistic regression analysis, the independent parameters impacting SWL outcomes were stone size, stone attenuation, TFA, and serum creatinine. [Adjusted odds ratios and (95% confidence intervals): 9.49 (3.72-24.20), 2.25 (1.22-4.14), 2.20 (1.10-4.40), and 2.89 (1.35-6.21) respectively, all p < 0.05]. In the present study, stone size, stone attenuation, TFA and serum creatinine were four independent predictors for stone-free rates after SWL. These findings suggest that pretreatment NCCT may predict the outcomes after SWL. Consequently, we can use these predictors for selecting

  2. In 'big bang' major incidents do triage tools accurately predict clinical priority?: a systematic review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilner, T M; Brace, S J; Cooke, M W; Stallard, N; Bleetman, A; Perkins, G D

    2011-05-01

    The term "big bang" major incidents is used to describe sudden, usually traumatic,catastrophic events, involving relatively large numbers of injured individuals, where demands on clinical services rapidly outstrip the available resources. Triage tools support the pre-hospital provider to prioritise which patients to treat and/or transport first based upon clinical need. The aim of this review is to identify existing triage tools and to determine the extent to which their reliability and validity have been assessed. A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify and evaluate published data validating the efficacy of the triage tools. Studies using data from trauma patients that report on the derivation, validation and/or reliability of the specific pre-hospital triage tools were eligible for inclusion.Purely descriptive studies, reviews, exercises or reports (without supporting data) were excluded. The search yielded 1982 papers. After initial scrutiny of title and abstract, 181 papers were deemed potentially applicable and from these 11 were identified as relevant to this review (in first figure). There were two level of evidence one studies, three level of evidence two studies and six level of evidence three studies. The two level of evidence one studies were prospective validations of Clinical Decision Rules (CDR's) in children in South Africa, all the other studies were retrospective CDR derivation, validation or cohort studies. The quality of the papers was rated as good (n=3), fair (n=7), poor (n=1). There is limited evidence for the validity of existing triage tools in big bang major incidents.Where evidence does exist it focuses on sensitivity and specificity in relation to prediction of trauma death or severity of injury based on data from single or small number patient incidents. The Sacco system is unique in combining survivability modelling with the degree by which the system is overwhelmed in the triage decision system. The

  3. Radiology clinical synopsis: a simple solution for obtaining an adequate clinical history for the accurate reporting of imaging studies on patients in intensive care units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, Mervyn D.; Alam, Khurshaid

    2005-01-01

    Lack of clinical history on radiology requisitions is a universal problem. We describe a simple Web-based system that readily provides radiology-relevant clinical history to the radiologist reading radiographs of intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Along with the relevant history, which includes primary and secondary diagnoses, disease progression and complications, the system provides the patient's name, record number and hospital location. This information is immediately available to reporting radiologists. New clinical information is immediately entered on-line by the radiologists as they are reviewing images. After patient discharge, the data are stored and immediately available if the patient is readmitted. The system has been in routine clinical use in our hospital for nearly 2 years. (orig.)

  4. Perceived Physician-informed Weight Status Predicts Accurate Weight Self-Perception and Weight Self-Regulation in Low-income, African American Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Charlie L; Strayhorn, Gregory; Moore, Sandra; Goldman, Brian; Martin, Michelle Y

    2016-01-01

    Obese African American women under-appraise their body mass index (BMI) classification and report fewer weight loss attempts than women who accurately appraise their weight status. This cross-sectional study examined whether physician-informed weight status could predict weight self-perception and weight self-regulation strategies in obese women. A convenience sample of 118 low-income women completed a survey assessing demographic characteristics, comorbidities, weight self-perception, and weight self-regulation strategies. BMI was calculated during nurse triage. Binary logistic regression models were performed to test hypotheses. The odds of obese accurate appraisers having been informed about their weight status were six times greater than those of under-appraisers. The odds of those using an "approach" self-regulation strategy having been physician-informed were four times greater compared with those using an "avoidance" strategy. Physicians are uniquely positioned to influence accurate weight self-perception and adaptive weight self-regulation strategies in underserved women, reducing their risk for obesity-related morbidity.

  5. An Accurate GPS-IMU/DR Data Fusion Method for Driverless Car Based on a Set of Predictive Models and Grid Constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shiyao; Deng, Zhidong; Yin, Gang

    2016-02-24

    A high-performance differential global positioning system (GPS)  receiver with real time kinematics provides absolute localization for driverless cars. However, it is not only susceptible to multipath effect but also unable to effectively fulfill precise error correction in a wide range of driving areas. This paper proposes an accurate GPS-inertial measurement unit (IMU)/dead reckoning (DR) data fusion method based on a set of predictive models and occupancy grid constraints. First, we employ a set of autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) equations that have different structural parameters to build maximum likelihood models of raw navigation. Second, both grid constraints and spatial consensus checks on all predictive results and current measurements are required to have removal of outliers. Navigation data that satisfy stationary stochastic process are further fused to achieve accurate localization results. Third, the standard deviation of multimodal data fusion can be pre-specified by grid size. Finally, we perform a lot of field tests on a diversity of real urban scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the method can significantly smooth small jumps in bias and considerably reduce accumulated position errors due to DR. With low computational complexity, the position accuracy of our method surpasses existing state-of-the-arts on the same dataset and the new data fusion method is practically applied in our driverless car.

  6. An Accurate GPS-IMU/DR Data Fusion Method for Driverless Car Based on a Set of Predictive Models and Grid Constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiyao Wang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available A high-performance differential global positioning system (GPS  receiver with real time kinematics provides absolute localization for driverless cars. However, it is not only susceptible to multipath effect but also unable to effectively fulfill precise error correction in a wide range of driving areas. This paper proposes an accurate GPS–inertial measurement unit (IMU/dead reckoning (DR data fusion method based on a set of predictive models and occupancy grid constraints. First, we employ a set of autoregressive and moving average (ARMA equations that have different structural parameters to build maximum likelihood models of raw navigation. Second, both grid constraints and spatial consensus checks on all predictive results and current measurements are required to have removal of outliers. Navigation data that satisfy stationary stochastic process are further fused to achieve accurate localization results. Third, the standard deviation of multimodal data fusion can be pre-specified by grid size. Finally, we perform a lot of field tests on a diversity of real urban scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the method can significantly smooth small jumps in bias and considerably reduce accumulated position errors due to DR. With low computational complexity, the position accuracy of our method surpasses existing state-of-the-arts on the same dataset and the new data fusion method is practically applied in our driverless car.

  7. Enhancement of a Turbulence Sub-Model for More Accurate Predictions of Vertical Stratifications in 3D Coastal and Estuarine Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenrui Huang

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an improvement of the Mellor and Yamada's 2nd order turbulence model in the Princeton Ocean Model (POM for better predictions of vertical stratifications of salinity in estuaries. The model was evaluated in the strongly stratified estuary, Apalachicola River, Florida, USA. The three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was applied to study the stratified flow and salinity intrusion in the estuary in response to tide, wind, and buoyancy forces. Model tests indicate that model predictions over estimate the stratification when using the default turbulent parameters. Analytic studies of density-induced and wind-induced flows indicate that accurate estimation of vertical eddy viscosity plays an important role in describing vertical profiles. Initial model revision experiments show that the traditional approach of modifying empirical constants in the turbulence model leads to numerical instability. In order to improve the performance of the turbulence model while maintaining numerical stability, a stratification factor was introduced to allow adjustment of the vertical turbulent eddy viscosity and diffusivity. Sensitivity studies indicate that the stratification factor, ranging from 1.0 to 1.2, does not cause numerical instability in Apalachicola River. Model simulations show that increasing the turbulent eddy viscosity by a stratification factor of 1.12 results in an optimal agreement between model predictions and observations in the case study presented in this study. Using the proposed stratification factor provides a useful way for coastal modelers to improve the turbulence model performance in predicting vertical turbulent mixing in stratified estuaries and coastal waters.

  8. Learning a weighted sequence model of the nucleosome core and linker yields more accurate predictions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Homo sapiens.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheila M Reynolds

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available DNA in eukaryotes is packaged into a chromatin complex, the most basic element of which is the nucleosome. The precise positioning of the nucleosome cores allows for selective access to the DNA, and the mechanisms that control this positioning are important pieces of the gene expression puzzle. We describe a large-scale nucleosome pattern that jointly characterizes the nucleosome core and the adjacent linkers and is predominantly characterized by long-range oscillations in the mono, di- and tri-nucleotide content of the DNA sequence, and we show that this pattern can be used to predict nucleosome positions in both Homo sapiens and Saccharomyces cerevisiae more accurately than previously published methods. Surprisingly, in both H. sapiens and S. cerevisiae, the most informative individual features are the mono-nucleotide patterns, although the inclusion of di- and tri-nucleotide features results in improved performance. Our approach combines a much longer pattern than has been previously used to predict nucleosome positioning from sequence-301 base pairs, centered at the position to be scored-with a novel discriminative classification approach that selectively weights the contributions from each of the input features. The resulting scores are relatively insensitive to local AT-content and can be used to accurately discriminate putative dyad positions from adjacent linker regions without requiring an additional dynamic programming step and without the attendant edge effects and assumptions about linker length modeling and overall nucleosome density. Our approach produces the best dyad-linker classification results published to date in H. sapiens, and outperforms two recently published models on a large set of S. cerevisiae nucleosome positions. Our results suggest that in both genomes, a comparable and relatively small fraction of nucleosomes are well-positioned and that these positions are predictable based on sequence alone. We believe that the

  9. Learning a weighted sequence model of the nucleosome core and linker yields more accurate predictions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Homo sapiens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Sheila M; Bilmes, Jeff A; Noble, William Stafford

    2010-07-08

    DNA in eukaryotes is packaged into a chromatin complex, the most basic element of which is the nucleosome. The precise positioning of the nucleosome cores allows for selective access to the DNA, and the mechanisms that control this positioning are important pieces of the gene expression puzzle. We describe a large-scale nucleosome pattern that jointly characterizes the nucleosome core and the adjacent linkers and is predominantly characterized by long-range oscillations in the mono, di- and tri-nucleotide content of the DNA sequence, and we show that this pattern can be used to predict nucleosome positions in both Homo sapiens and Saccharomyces cerevisiae more accurately than previously published methods. Surprisingly, in both H. sapiens and S. cerevisiae, the most informative individual features are the mono-nucleotide patterns, although the inclusion of di- and tri-nucleotide features results in improved performance. Our approach combines a much longer pattern than has been previously used to predict nucleosome positioning from sequence-301 base pairs, centered at the position to be scored-with a novel discriminative classification approach that selectively weights the contributions from each of the input features. The resulting scores are relatively insensitive to local AT-content and can be used to accurately discriminate putative dyad positions from adjacent linker regions without requiring an additional dynamic programming step and without the attendant edge effects and assumptions about linker length modeling and overall nucleosome density. Our approach produces the best dyad-linker classification results published to date in H. sapiens, and outperforms two recently published models on a large set of S. cerevisiae nucleosome positions. Our results suggest that in both genomes, a comparable and relatively small fraction of nucleosomes are well-positioned and that these positions are predictable based on sequence alone. We believe that the bulk of the

  10. Learning a Weighted Sequence Model of the Nucleosome Core and Linker Yields More Accurate Predictions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Homo sapiens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Sheila M.; Bilmes, Jeff A.; Noble, William Stafford

    2010-01-01

    DNA in eukaryotes is packaged into a chromatin complex, the most basic element of which is the nucleosome. The precise positioning of the nucleosome cores allows for selective access to the DNA, and the mechanisms that control this positioning are important pieces of the gene expression puzzle. We describe a large-scale nucleosome pattern that jointly characterizes the nucleosome core and the adjacent linkers and is predominantly characterized by long-range oscillations in the mono, di- and tri-nucleotide content of the DNA sequence, and we show that this pattern can be used to predict nucleosome positions in both Homo sapiens and Saccharomyces cerevisiae more accurately than previously published methods. Surprisingly, in both H. sapiens and S. cerevisiae, the most informative individual features are the mono-nucleotide patterns, although the inclusion of di- and tri-nucleotide features results in improved performance. Our approach combines a much longer pattern than has been previously used to predict nucleosome positioning from sequence—301 base pairs, centered at the position to be scored—with a novel discriminative classification approach that selectively weights the contributions from each of the input features. The resulting scores are relatively insensitive to local AT-content and can be used to accurately discriminate putative dyad positions from adjacent linker regions without requiring an additional dynamic programming step and without the attendant edge effects and assumptions about linker length modeling and overall nucleosome density. Our approach produces the best dyad-linker classification results published to date in H. sapiens, and outperforms two recently published models on a large set of S. cerevisiae nucleosome positions. Our results suggest that in both genomes, a comparable and relatively small fraction of nucleosomes are well-positioned and that these positions are predictable based on sequence alone. We believe that the bulk of the

  11. Lay perceptions of predictive testing for diabetes based on DNA test results versus family history assessment: a focus group study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijdenes-Pijl, Miranda; Dondorp, Wybo J; Timmermans, Danielle Rm; Cornel, Martina C; Henneman, Lidewij

    2011-07-05

    This study assessed lay perceptions of issues related to predictive genetic testing for multifactorial diseases. These perceived issues may differ from the "classic" issues, e.g. autonomy, discrimination, and psychological harm that are considered important in predictive testing for monogenic disorders. In this study, type 2 diabetes was used as an example, and perceptions with regard to predictive testing based on DNA test results and family history assessment were compared. Eight focus group interviews were held with 45 individuals aged 35-70 years with (n = 3) and without (n = 1) a family history of diabetes, mixed groups of these two (n = 2), and diabetes patients (n = 2). All interviews were transcribed and analysed using Atlas-ti. Most participants believed in the ability of a predictive test to identify people at risk for diabetes and to motivate preventive behaviour. Different reasons underlying motivation were considered when comparing DNA test results and a family history risk assessment. A perceived drawback of DNA testing was that diabetes was considered not severe enough for this type of risk assessment. In addition, diabetes family history assessment was not considered useful by some participants, since there are also other risk factors involved, not everyone has a diabetes family history or knows their family history, and it might have a negative influence on family relations. Respect for autonomy of individuals was emphasized more with regard to DNA testing than family history assessment. Other issues such as psychological harm, discrimination, and privacy were only briefly mentioned for both tests. The results suggest that most participants believe a predictive genetic test could be used in the prevention of multifactorial disorders, such as diabetes, but indicate points to consider before both these tests are applied. These considerations differ with regard to the method of assessment (DNA test or obtaining family history) and also differ from

  12. Lay perceptions of predictive testing for diabetes based on DNA test results versus family history assessment: a focus group study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornel Martina C

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study assessed lay perceptions of issues related to predictive genetic testing for multifactorial diseases. These perceived issues may differ from the "classic" issues, e.g. autonomy, discrimination, and psychological harm that are considered important in predictive testing for monogenic disorders. In this study, type 2 diabetes was used as an example, and perceptions with regard to predictive testing based on DNA test results and family history assessment were compared. Methods Eight focus group interviews were held with 45 individuals aged 35-70 years with (n = 3 and without (n = 1 a family history of diabetes, mixed groups of these two (n = 2, and diabetes patients (n = 2. All interviews were transcribed and analysed using Atlas-ti. Results Most participants believed in the ability of a predictive test to identify people at risk for diabetes and to motivate preventive behaviour. Different reasons underlying motivation were considered when comparing DNA test results and a family history risk assessment. A perceived drawback of DNA testing was that diabetes was considered not severe enough for this type of risk assessment. In addition, diabetes family history assessment was not considered useful by some participants, since there are also other risk factors involved, not everyone has a diabetes family history or knows their family history, and it might have a negative influence on family relations. Respect for autonomy of individuals was emphasized more with regard to DNA testing than family history assessment. Other issues such as psychological harm, discrimination, and privacy were only briefly mentioned for both tests. Conclusion The results suggest that most participants believe a predictive genetic test could be used in the prevention of multifactorial disorders, such as diabetes, but indicate points to consider before both these tests are applied. These considerations differ with regard to the method of assessment

  13. Prediction of Happy-Sad mood from daily behaviors and previous sleep history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sano, Akane; Yu, Amy Z; McHill, Andrew W; Phillips, Andrew J K; Taylor, Sara; Jaques, Natasha; Klerman, Elizabeth B; Picard, Rosalind W

    2015-01-01

    We collected and analyzed subjective and objective data using surveys and wearable sensors worn day and night from 68 participants for ~30 days each, to address questions related to the relationships among sleep duration, sleep irregularity, self-reported Happy-Sad mood and other daily behavioral factors in college students. We analyzed this behavioral and physiological data to (i) identify factors that classified the participants into Happy-Sad mood using support vector machines (SVMs); and (ii) analyze how accurately sleep duration and sleep regularity for the past 1-5 days classified morning Happy-Sad mood. We found statistically significant associations amongst Sad mood and poor health-related factors. Behavioral factors including the frequency of negative social interactions, and negative emails, and total academic activity hours showed the best performance in separating the Happy-Sad mood groups. Sleep regularity and sleep duration predicted daily Happy-Sad mood with 65-80% accuracy. The number of nights giving the best prediction of Happy-Sad mood varied for different individuals.

  14. Prediction of Happy-Sad Mood from Daily Behaviors and Previous Sleep History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sano, Akane; Yu, Amy; McHill, Andrew W.; Phillips, Andrew J. K.; Taylor, Sara; Jaques, Natasha; Klerman, Elizabeth B.; Picard, Rosalind W.

    2016-01-01

    We collected and analyzed subjective and objective data using surveys and wearable sensors worn day and night from 68 participants, for 30 days each, to address questions related to the relationships among sleep duration, sleep irregularity, self-reported Happy-Sad mood and other factors in college students. We analyzed daily and monthly behavior and physiology and identified factors that affect mood, including how accurately sleep duration and sleep regularity for the past 1-5 days classified the participants into high/low mood using support vector machines. We found statistically significant associations among sad mood and poor health-related factors. Behavioral factors such as the percentage of neutral social interactions and the total academic activity hours showed the best performance in separating the Happy-Sad mood groups. Sleep regularity was a more important discriminator of mood than sleep duration for most participants, although both variables predicted happy/sad mood with from 70-82% accuracy. The number of nights giving the best prediction of happy/sad mood varied for different groups of individuals. PMID:26737854

  15. A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, Alexandre; Navarro, Jorge [Wind Energy, Division of Renewable Energies, Department of Energy, CIEMAT, Av. Complutense, 22, Ed. 42, 28044 Madrid (Spain); Crespo, Antonio [Laboratorio de Mecanica de Fluidos, Departmento de Ingenieria Energetica y Fluidomecanica, ETSII, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, C/Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2-28006 Madrid (Spain); Lizcano, Gil [Oxford University Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling - IMM, Technical University of Denmark, Richard Petersens Plads, Building 321, Office 019, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Feitosa, Everaldo [Brazilian Wind Energy Centre - CBEE, Centro de Tecnologia e Geociencias, UFPE-50.740-530 Recife, PE (Brazil)

    2008-08-15

    This paper makes a brief review on 30 years of history of the wind power short-term prediction, since the first ideas and sketches on the theme to the actual state of the art on models and tools, giving emphasis to the most significant proposals and developments. The two principal lines of thought on short-term prediction (mathematical and physical) are indistinctly treated here and comparisons between models and tools are avoided, mainly because, on the one hand, a standard for a measure of performance is still not adopted and, on the other hand, it is very important that the data are exactly the same in order to compare two models (this fact makes it almost impossible to carry out a quantitative comparison between a huge number of models and methods). In place of a quantitative description, a qualitative approach is preferred for this review, remarking the contribution (and innovative aspect) of each model. On the basis of the review, some topics for future research are pointed out. (author)

  16. Prediction of the time-dependent failure rate for normally operating components taking into account the operational history

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vrbanic, I.; Simic, Z.; Sljivac, D.

    2008-01-01

    The prediction of the time-dependent failure rate has been studied, taking into account the operational history of a component used in applications such as system modeling in a probabilistic safety analysis in order to evaluate the impact of equipment aging and maintenance strategies on the risk measures considered. We have selected a time-dependent model for the failure rate which is based on the Weibull distribution and the principles of proportional age reduction by equipment overhauls. Estimation of the parameters that determine the failure rate is considered, including the definition of the operational history model and likelihood function for the Bayesian analysis of parameters for normally operating repairable components. The operational history is provided as a time axis with defined times of overhauls and failures. An example for demonstration is described with prediction of the future behavior for seven different operational histories. (orig.)

  17. Metabolite signal identification in accurate mass metabolomics data with MZedDB, an interactive m/z annotation tool utilising predicted ionisation behaviour 'rules'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Snowdon Stuart

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Metabolomics experiments using Mass Spectrometry (MS technology measure the mass to charge ratio (m/z and intensity of ionised molecules in crude extracts of complex biological samples to generate high dimensional metabolite 'fingerprint' or metabolite 'profile' data. High resolution MS instruments perform routinely with a mass accuracy of Results Metabolite 'structures' harvested from publicly accessible databases were converted into a common format to generate a comprehensive archive in MZedDB. 'Rules' were derived from chemical information that allowed MZedDB to generate a list of adducts and neutral loss fragments putatively able to form for each structure and calculate, on the fly, the exact molecular weight of every potential ionisation product to provide targets for annotation searches based on accurate mass. We demonstrate that data matrices representing populations of ionisation products generated from different biological matrices contain a large proportion (sometimes > 50% of molecular isotopes, salt adducts and neutral loss fragments. Correlation analysis of ESI-MS data features confirmed the predicted relationships of m/z signals. An integrated isotope enumerator in MZedDB allowed verification of exact isotopic pattern distributions to corroborate experimental data. Conclusion We conclude that although ultra-high accurate mass instruments provide major insight into the chemical diversity of biological extracts, the facile annotation of a large proportion of signals is not possible by simple, automated query of current databases using computed molecular formulae. Parameterising MZedDB to take into account predicted ionisation behaviour and the biological source of any sample improves greatly both the frequency and accuracy of potential annotation 'hits' in ESI-MS data.

  18. Discovery of a general method of solving the Schrödinger and dirac equations that opens a way to accurately predictive quantum chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakatsuji, Hiroshi

    2012-09-18

    Just as Newtonian law governs classical physics, the Schrödinger equation (SE) and the relativistic Dirac equation (DE) rule the world of chemistry. So, if we can solve these equations accurately, we can use computation to predict chemistry precisely. However, for approximately 80 years after the discovery of these equations, chemists believed that they could not solve SE and DE for atoms and molecules that included many electrons. This Account reviews ideas developed over the past decade to further the goal of predictive quantum chemistry. Between 2000 and 2005, I discovered a general method of solving the SE and DE accurately. As a first inspiration, I formulated the structure of the exact wave function of the SE in a compact mathematical form. The explicit inclusion of the exact wave function's structure within the variational space allows for the calculation of the exact wave function as a solution of the variational method. Although this process sounds almost impossible, it is indeed possible, and I have published several formulations and applied them to solve the full configuration interaction (CI) with a very small number of variables. However, when I examined analytical solutions for atoms and molecules, the Hamiltonian integrals in their secular equations diverged. This singularity problem occurred in all atoms and molecules because it originates from the singularity of the Coulomb potential in their Hamiltonians. To overcome this problem, I first introduced the inverse SE and then the scaled SE. The latter simpler idea led to immediate and surprisingly accurate solution for the SEs of the hydrogen atom, helium atom, and hydrogen molecule. The free complement (FC) method, also called the free iterative CI (free ICI) method, was efficient for solving the SEs. In the FC method, the basis functions that span the exact wave function are produced by the Hamiltonian of the system and the zeroth-order wave function. These basis functions are called complement

  19. Profiling crop pollinators: life history traits predict habitat use and crop visitation by Mediterranean wild bees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisanty, Gideon; Mandelik, Yael

    2015-04-01

    Wild pollinators, bees in particular, may greatly contribute to crop pollination and provide a safety net against declines in commercial pollinators. However, the identity, life history traits, and environmental sensitivities of main crop pollinator species.have received limited attention. These are crucial for predicting pollination services of different communities and for developing management practices that enhance crop pollinators. We sampled wild bees in three crop systems (almond, confection sunflower, and seed watermelon) in a mosaic Israeli Mediterranean landscape. Bees were sampled in field/orchard edges and interiors, and in seminatural scrub surrounding the fields/orchards. We also analyzed land cover at 50-2500 m radii around fields/orchards. We used this data to distinguish crop from non-crop pollinators based on a set of life history traits (nesting, lecty, sociality, body size) linked to habitat preference and crop visitation. Bee abundance and species richness decreased from the surrounding seminatural habitat to the field/orchard interior, especially across the seminatural habitat-field edge ecotone. Thus, although rich bee communities were found near fields, only small fractions crossed the ecotone and visited crop flowers in substantial numbers. The bee assemblage in agricultural fields/orchards and on crop flowers was dominated by ground-nesting bees of the tribe Halictini, which tend to nest within fields. Bees' habitat preferences were determined mainly by nesting guild, whereas crop visitation was determined mainly by sociality. Lecty and body size also affected both measures. The percentage of surrounding seminatural habitat at 250-2500 m radii had a positive effect on wild bee diversity in field edges, for all bee guilds, while at 50-100 m radii, only aboveground nesters were positively affected. In sum, we found that crop and non-crop pollinators are distinguished by behavioral and morphological traits. Hence, analysis of life-history

  20. Genome-Scale Metabolic Model for the Green Alga Chlorella vulgaris UTEX 395 Accurately Predicts Phenotypes under Autotrophic, Heterotrophic, and Mixotrophic Growth Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuñiga, Cristal; Li, Chien-Ting; Huelsman, Tyler; Levering, Jennifer; Zielinski, Daniel C; McConnell, Brian O; Long, Christopher P; Knoshaug, Eric P; Guarnieri, Michael T; Antoniewicz, Maciek R; Betenbaugh, Michael J; Zengler, Karsten

    2016-09-01

    The green microalga Chlorella vulgaris has been widely recognized as a promising candidate for biofuel production due to its ability to store high lipid content and its natural metabolic versatility. Compartmentalized genome-scale metabolic models constructed from genome sequences enable quantitative insight into the transport and metabolism of compounds within a target organism. These metabolic models have long been utilized to generate optimized design strategies for an improved production process. Here, we describe the reconstruction, validation, and application of a genome-scale metabolic model for C. vulgaris UTEX 395, iCZ843. The reconstruction represents the most comprehensive model for any eukaryotic photosynthetic organism to date, based on the genome size and number of genes in the reconstruction. The highly curated model accurately predicts phenotypes under photoautotrophic, heterotrophic, and mixotrophic conditions. The model was validated against experimental data and lays the foundation for model-driven strain design and medium alteration to improve yield. Calculated flux distributions under different trophic conditions show that a number of key pathways are affected by nitrogen starvation conditions, including central carbon metabolism and amino acid, nucleotide, and pigment biosynthetic pathways. Furthermore, model prediction of growth rates under various medium compositions and subsequent experimental validation showed an increased growth rate with the addition of tryptophan and methionine. © 2016 American Society of Plant Biologists. All rights reserved.

  1. Genome-Scale Metabolic Model for the Green Alga Chlorella vulgaris UTEX 395 Accurately Predicts Phenotypes under Autotrophic, Heterotrophic, and Mixotrophic Growth Conditions1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuñiga, Cristal; Li, Chien-Ting; Zielinski, Daniel C.; Guarnieri, Michael T.; Antoniewicz, Maciek R.; Zengler, Karsten

    2016-01-01

    The green microalga Chlorella vulgaris has been widely recognized as a promising candidate for biofuel production due to its ability to store high lipid content and its natural metabolic versatility. Compartmentalized genome-scale metabolic models constructed from genome sequences enable quantitative insight into the transport and metabolism of compounds within a target organism. These metabolic models have long been utilized to generate optimized design strategies for an improved production process. Here, we describe the reconstruction, validation, and application of a genome-scale metabolic model for C. vulgaris UTEX 395, iCZ843. The reconstruction represents the most comprehensive model for any eukaryotic photosynthetic organism to date, based on the genome size and number of genes in the reconstruction. The highly curated model accurately predicts phenotypes under photoautotrophic, heterotrophic, and mixotrophic conditions. The model was validated against experimental data and lays the foundation for model-driven strain design and medium alteration to improve yield. Calculated flux distributions under different trophic conditions show that a number of key pathways are affected by nitrogen starvation conditions, including central carbon metabolism and amino acid, nucleotide, and pigment biosynthetic pathways. Furthermore, model prediction of growth rates under various medium compositions and subsequent experimental validation showed an increased growth rate with the addition of tryptophan and methionine. PMID:27372244

  2. Albumin-Bilirubin and Platelet-Albumin-Bilirubin Grades Accurately Predict Overall Survival in High-Risk Patients Undergoing Conventional Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansmann, Jan; Evers, Maximilian J; Bui, James T; Lokken, R Peter; Lipnik, Andrew J; Gaba, Ron C; Ray, Charles E

    2017-09-01

    To evaluate albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) and platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) grades in predicting overall survival in high-risk patients undergoing conventional transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This single-center retrospective study included 180 high-risk patients (142 men, 59 y ± 9) between April 2007 and January 2015. Patients were considered high-risk based on laboratory abnormalities before the procedure (bilirubin > 2.0 mg/dL, albumin 1.2 mg/dL); presence of ascites, encephalopathy, portal vein thrombus, or transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt; or Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score > 15. Serum albumin, bilirubin, and platelet values were used to determine ALBI and PALBI grades. Overall survival was stratified by ALBI and PALBI grades with substratification by Child-Pugh class (CPC) and Barcelona Liver Clinic Cancer (BCLC) stage using Kaplan-Meier analysis. C-index was used to determine discriminatory ability and survival prediction accuracy. Median survival for 79 ALBI grade 2 patients and 101 ALBI grade 3 patients was 20.3 and 10.7 months, respectively (P  .05). ALBI and PALBI grades are accurate survival metrics in high-risk patients undergoing conventional transarterial chemoembolization for HCC. Use of these scores allows for more refined survival stratification within CPC and BCLC stage. Copyright © 2017 SIR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Improved predictive modeling of white LEDs with accurate luminescence simulation and practical inputs with TracePro opto-mechanical design software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsao, Chao-hsi; Freniere, Edward R.; Smith, Linda

    2009-02-01

    The use of white LEDs for solid-state lighting to address applications in the automotive, architectural and general illumination markets is just emerging. LEDs promise greater energy efficiency and lower maintenance costs. However, there is a significant amount of design and cost optimization to be done while companies continue to improve semiconductor manufacturing processes and begin to apply more efficient and better color rendering luminescent materials such as phosphor and quantum dot nanomaterials. In the last decade, accurate and predictive opto-mechanical software modeling has enabled adherence to performance, consistency, cost, and aesthetic criteria without the cost and time associated with iterative hardware prototyping. More sophisticated models that include simulation of optical phenomenon, such as luminescence, promise to yield designs that are more predictive - giving design engineers and materials scientists more control over the design process to quickly reach optimum performance, manufacturability, and cost criteria. A design case study is presented where first, a phosphor formulation and excitation source are optimized for a white light. The phosphor formulation, the excitation source and other LED components are optically and mechanically modeled and ray traced. Finally, its performance is analyzed. A blue LED source is characterized by its relative spectral power distribution and angular intensity distribution. YAG:Ce phosphor is characterized by relative absorption, excitation and emission spectra, quantum efficiency and bulk absorption coefficient. Bulk scatter properties are characterized by wavelength dependent scatter coefficients, anisotropy and bulk absorption coefficient.

  4. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Lundholm

    Full Text Available Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that

  5. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundholm, Jeremy; Heim, Amy; Tran, Stephanie; Smith, Tyler

    2014-01-01

    Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth) to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies) for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that favor less

  6. Accurate electrostatic and van der Waals pull-in prediction for fully clamped nano/micro-beams using linear universal graphs of pull-in instability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahani, Masoud; Askari, Amir R.

    2014-09-01

    In spite of the fact that pull-in instability of electrically actuated nano/micro-beams has been investigated by many researchers to date, no explicit formula has been presented yet which can predict pull-in voltage based on a geometrically non-linear and distributed parameter model. The objective of present paper is to introduce a simple and accurate formula to predict this value for a fully clamped electrostatically actuated nano/micro-beam. To this end, a non-linear Euler-Bernoulli beam model is employed, which accounts for the axial residual stress, geometric non-linearity of mid-plane stretching, distributed electrostatic force and the van der Waals (vdW) attraction. The non-linear boundary value governing equation of equilibrium is non-dimensionalized and solved iteratively through single-term Galerkin based reduced order model (ROM). The solutions are validated thorough direct comparison with experimental and other existing results reported in previous studies. Pull-in instability under electrical and vdW loads are also investigated using universal graphs. Based on the results of these graphs, non-dimensional pull-in and vdW parameters, which are defined in the text, vary linearly versus the other dimensionless parameters of the problem. Using this fact, some linear equations are presented to predict pull-in voltage, the maximum allowable length, the so-called detachment length, and the minimum allowable gap for a nano/micro-system. These linear equations are also reduced to a couple of universal pull-in formulas for systems with small initial gap. The accuracy of the universal pull-in formulas are also validated by comparing its results with available experimental and some previous geometric linear and closed-form findings published in the literature.

  7. Prediction of dynamic contact angle histories of a bubble growing at a wall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geld, Cees W.M. van der

    2004-01-01

    A fast growing boiling bubble at the verge of detaching from a plane wall is usually shaped as a truncated sphere, and experiences various hydrodynamic forces due to its expansion and the motion of its center of mass. In a homogeneous flow field, one of the forces is the so-called bubble growth force that is essentially due to inertia. This force is usually evaluated with the aid of approximate expressions [Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 36 (1993) 651, Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 38 (1995) 2075]. In the present study an exact expression for the expansion force is derived for the case of a truncated sphere attached to a plane, infinite wall. The Lagrange-Thomson formalism is applied. Two Euler-Lagrange equations are derived, one governing the motion of the center of mass, the other governing expansion a kind of extended Rayleigh-Plesset equation. If a constitutive equation for the gas-vapor content of the bubble is given, initial conditions and these two differential equations determine the dynamics of the growing truncated sphere that has its foot on a plane, infinite wall. Simulations are carried out for a given expansion rate to predict the history of the dynamic contact angle. The simulations increase the understanding of mechanisms controlling detachment, and yield realistic times of detachment

  8. Predictive value of pregnancy history in subfertile couples: results from a nationwide cohort study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Steeg, Jan W.; Steures, Pieternel; Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.; Habbema, J. Dik F.; Hompes, Peter G. A.; Michgelsen, Henri W. B.; van der Heijden, Pieter F. M.; Bossuyt, Patrick M. M.; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben W. J.

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess whether pregnancy history can predict the occurrence of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy in subfertile couples. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Thirty fertility centers in the Netherlands. PATIENT(S): Subfertile, ovulatory women with at least one patent tube and male

  9. Predictive value of pregnancy history in subfertile couples: results from a nationwide cohort study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Steeg, J.W.; Steures, P.; Eijkemans, M.J.C.; Habbema, J.D.F.; Hompes, P.G.A.; Michgelsen, H.W.B.; van der Heijden, P.F.M.; Bossuyt, P.M.M.; van der Veen, F.; Mol, B.W.J.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To assess whether pregnancy history can predict the occurrence of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy in subfertile couples. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Thirty fertility centers in the Netherlands. Patient(s): Subfertile, ovulatory women with at least one patent tube and male

  10. Preschool Speech Error Patterns Predict Articulation and Phonological Awareness Outcomes in Children with Histories of Speech Sound Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preston, Jonathan L.; Hull, Margaret; Edwards, Mary Louise

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To determine if speech error patterns in preschoolers with speech sound disorders (SSDs) predict articulation and phonological awareness (PA) outcomes almost 4 years later. Method: Twenty-five children with histories of preschool SSDs (and normal receptive language) were tested at an average age of 4;6 (years;months) and were followed up…

  11. A simple, fast, and accurate thermodynamic-based approach for transfer and prediction of gas chromatography retention times between columns and instruments Part III: Retention time prediction on target column.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Siyuan; Stevenson, Keisean A J M; Harynuk, James J

    2018-03-27

    This is the third part of a three-part series of papers. In Part I, we presented a method for determining the actual effective geometry of a reference column as well as the thermodynamic-based parameters of a set of probe compounds in an in-house mixture. Part II introduced an approach for estimating the actual effective geometry of a target column by collecting retention data of the same mixture of probe compounds on the target column and using their thermodynamic parameters, acquired on the reference column, as a bridge between both systems. Part III, presented here, demonstrates the retention time transfer and prediction from the reference column to the target column using experimental data for a separate mixture of compounds. To predict the retention time of a new compound, we first estimate its thermodynamic-based parameters on the reference column (using geometric parameters determined previously). The compound's retention time on a second column (of previously determined geometry) is then predicted. The models and the associated optimization algorithms were tested using simulated and experimental data. The accuracy of predicted retention times shows that the proposed approach is simple, fast, and accurate for retention time transfer and prediction between gas chromatography columns. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  12. History of major depressive disorder prospectively predicts worse quality of life in women with breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jim, Heather S L; Small, Brent J; Minton, Susan; Andrykowski, Michael; Jacobsen, Paul B

    2012-06-01

    Data are scarce about whether past history of major depressive disorder in the absence of current depression places breast cancer patients at risk for worse quality of life. The current study prospectively examined quality of life during chemotherapy in breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder (n = 29) and no history of depression (n = 144). Women with Stages 0-II breast cancer were assessed prior to and at the completion of chemotherapy. Major depressive disorder was assessed via structured interview and quality of life with the SF-36. Patients with past major depressive disorder displayed greater declines in physical functioning relative to patients with no history of depression (p ≤ 0.01). Findings suggest that breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder are at increased risk for declines in physical functioning during chemotherapy relative to patients with no history of depression.

  13. History of Major Depressive Disorder Prospectively Predicts Worse Quality of Life in Women with Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, Brent J.; Minton, Susan; Andrykowski, Michael; Jacobsen, Paul B.

    2012-01-01

    Background Data are scarce about whether past history of major depressive disorder in the absence of current depression places breast cancer patients at risk for worse quality of life. Purpose The current study prospectively examined quality of life during chemotherapy in breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder (n=29) and no history of depression (n=144). Methods Women with Stages 0–II breast cancer were assessed prior to and at the completion of chemotherapy. Major depressive disorder was assessed via structured interview and quality of life with the SF-36. Results Patients with past major depressive disorder displayed greater declines in physical functioning relative to patients with no history of depression (p≤0.01). Conclusions Findings suggest that breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder are at increased risk for declines in physical functioning during chemotherapy relative to patients with no history of depression. PMID:22167580

  14. Socioeconomic Status and Race Outperform Concussion History and Sport Participation in Predicting Collegiate Athlete Baseline Neurocognitive Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houck, Zac; Asken, Breton; Clugston, James; Perlstein, William; Bauer, Russell

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the contribution of socioeconomic status (SES) and other multivariate predictors to baseline neurocognitive functioning in collegiate athletes. Data were obtained from the Concussion Assessment, Research and Education (CARE) Consortium. Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT) baseline assessments for 403 University of Florida student-athletes (202 males; age range: 18-23) from the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 seasons were analyzed. ImPACT composite scores were consolidated into one memory and one speed composite score. Hierarchical linear regressions were used for analyses. In the overall sample, history of learning disability (β=-0.164; p=.001) and attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder (β=-0.102; p=.038) significantly predicted worse memory and speed performance, respectively. Older age predicted better speed performance (β=.176; pAmerican race predicted worse memory (β=-0.113; p=.026) and speed performance (β=-.242; pfootball players, higher maternal SES predicted better memory performance (β=0.308; p=.007); older age predicted better speed performance (β=0.346; p=.001); while Black/African American race predicted worse speed performance (β=-0.397; phistory of neurodevelopmental disorder, age, and race. In football players, specifically, maternal SES independently predicted baseline memory scores, but concussion history and years exposed to sport were not predictive. SES, race, and medical history beyond exposure to brain injury or subclinical brain trauma are important factors when interpreting variability in cognitive scores among collegiate athletes. Additionally, sport-specific differences in the proportional representation of various demographic variables (e.g., SES and race) may also be an important consideration within the broader biopsychosocial attributional model. (JINS, 2018, 24, 1-10).

  15. Smoking History Predicts Sensitivity to PARP Inhibitor Veliparib in Patients with Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reck, Martin; Blais, Normand; Juhasz, Erzsebet; Gorbunova, Vera; Jones, C Michael; Urban, Laszlo; Orlov, Sergey; Barlesi, Fabrice; Kio, Ebenezer; Keilholz, Ulrich; Qin, Qin; Qian, Jiang; Nickner, Caroline; Dziubinski, Juliann; Xiong, Hao; Mittapalli, Rajendar K; Dunbar, Martin; Ansell, Peter; He, Lei; McKee, Mark; Giranda, Vincent; Ramalingam, Suresh S

    2017-07-01

    Tobacco-related NSCLC is associated with reduced survival and greater genomic instability. Veliparib, a potent poly(adenosine diphosphate-ribose) polymerase inhibitor, augments platinum-induced DNA damage. A phase 2 trial of untreated advanced NSCLC showed a trend for improved outcomes (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.80, 95% confidence interval: 0.54-1.18, p = 0.27 for overall survival and HR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.45-1.15, p = 0.17 for progression-free survival) when veliparib was added to carboplatin/paclitaxel. Here we report an exploratory analysis by smoking history. Patients were randomized 2:1 to receive carboplatin/paclitaxel with veliparib, 120 mg (n = 105), or placebo (n = 53). Patients were stratified by histologic subtype and smoking history (recent smokers [n = 95], former smokers [n = 42], and never-smokers [n = 21]). Plasma cotinine level was measured as a chemical index of smoking. Mutation status was assessed by whole exome sequencing (n = 38). Smoking history, histologic subtype, age, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, sex, and geographic region predicted veliparib benefit in univariate analyses. In multivariate analysis, history of recent smoking was most predictive for veliparib benefit. Recent smokers treated with veliparib derived significantly greater progression-free survival and overall survival benefits (HR = 0.38 [p Smoking history predicted for efficacy with a veliparib-chemotherapy combination; toxicity was acceptable regardless of smoking history. A prespecified analysis of recent smokers is planned for ongoing phase 3 studies of veliparib in NSCLC. Copyright © 2017 International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. A history in-care predicts unique characteristics in a homeless population with mental illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roos, Leslie E; Distasio, Jino; Bolton, Shay-Lee; Katz, Laurence Y; Afifi, Tracie O; Isaak, Corinne; Goering, Paula; Bruce, Lucille; Sareen, Jitender

    2014-10-01

    Multiple studies of homeless persons report an increased prevalence of a history in-care, but there is a dearth of information on associated outcomes or relevant demographic profiles. This information is critical to understanding if certain individuals are at elevated risk or might benefit from specific intervention. Here, we investigate how a history in-care relates to demographics and multiple outcome measures in a homeless population with mental illness. Using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), the Short-Form 12, and a trauma questionnaire, we investigated baseline differences in demographics and length of homelessness in the At Home/Chez Soi Trial (N=504) Winnipeg homeless population with and without a history in-care. Approximately 50% of the homeless sample reported a history in-care. This group was significantly more likely to be young, female, married or cohabitating, of Aboriginal heritage, have less education, and have longer lifetime homelessness. Individuals of Aboriginal heritage with a history in-care were significantly more likely to report a familial history of residential school. Individuals with a history in-care experienced different prevalence rates of Axis 1 mental disorders. Those with a history in-care also reported significantly more traumatic events (particularly interpersonal). A distinctive high-risk profile emerged for individuals with a history in-care. Sociocultural factors of colonization and intergenerational transmission of trauma appear to be particularly relevant in the trajectories for individuals of Aboriginal heritage. Given the high prevalence of a history in-care, interventions and policy should reflect the specific vulnerability of this population, particularly in regards to trauma-informed services. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Confocal arthroscopy-based patient-specific constitutive models of cartilaginous tissues - II: prediction of reaction force history of meniscal cartilage specimens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Zeike A; Kirk, Thomas B; Miller, Karol

    2007-10-01

    The theoretical framework developed in a companion paper (Part I) is used to derive estimates of mechanical response of two meniscal cartilage specimens. The previously developed framework consisted of a constitutive model capable of incorporating confocal image-derived tissue microstructural data. In the present paper (Part II) fibre and matrix constitutive parameters are first estimated from mechanical testing of a batch of specimens similar to, but independent from those under consideration. Image analysis techniques which allow estimation of tissue microstructural parameters form confocal images are presented. The constitutive model and image-derived structural parameters are then used to predict the reaction force history of the two meniscal specimens subjected to partially confined compression. The predictions are made on the basis of the specimens' individual structural condition as assessed by confocal microscopy and involve no tuning of material parameters. Although the model does not reproduce all features of the experimental curves, as an unfitted estimate of mechanical response the prediction is quite accurate. In light of the obtained results it is judged that more general non-invasive estimation of tissue mechanical properties is possible using the developed framework.

  18. Stress sensitivity interacts with depression history to predict depressive symptoms among youth: Prospective changes following first depression onset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Technow, Jessica R.; Hazel, Nicholas A.; Abela, John R. Z.; Hankin, Benjamin L.

    2015-01-01

    Predictors of depressive symptoms may differ before and after the first onset of major depression due to stress sensitization. Dependent stressors, or those to which characteristics of individuals contribute, have been shown to predict depressive symptoms in youth. The current study sought to clarify how stressors’ roles may differ before and after the first depressive episode. Adolescents (N = 382, aged 11 to 15 at baseline) were assessed at baseline and every three months over the course of two years with measures of stressors and depressive symptoms. Semi-structured interviews were conducted every 6 months to assess for clinically significant depressive episodes. Hierarchical linear modeling showed a significant interaction between history of depression and idiographic fluctuations in dependent stressors to predict prospective elevations of symptoms, such that dependent stressors were more predictive of depressive symptoms after onset of disorder. Independent stressors predicted symptoms, but the strength of the association did not vary by depression history. These results suggest a synthesis of stress sensitization and generation processes that might maintain inter-episode depressive symptoms among youth with a history of clinical depression. PMID:25123081

  19. Stress sensitivity interacts with depression history to predict depressive symptoms among youth: prospective changes following first depression onset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Technow, Jessica R; Hazel, Nicholas A; Abela, John R Z; Hankin, Benjamin L

    2015-04-01

    Predictors of depressive symptoms may differ before and after the first onset of major depression due to stress sensitization. Dependent stressors, or those to which characteristics of individuals contribute, have been shown to predict depressive symptoms in youth. The current study sought to clarify how stressors' roles may differ before and after the first depressive episode. Adolescents (N = 382, aged 11 to 15 at baseline) were assessed at baseline and every 3 months over the course of 2 years with measures of stressors and depressive symptoms. Semi-structured interviews were conducted every 6 months to assess for clinically significant depressive episodes. Hierarchical linear modeling showed a significant interaction between history of depression and idiographic fluctuations in dependent stressors to predict prospective elevations of symptoms, such that dependent stressors were more predictive of depressive symptoms after onset of disorder. Independent stressors predicted symptoms, but the strength of the association did not vary by depression history. These results suggest a synthesis of dependent stress and stress sensitization processes that might maintain inter-episode depressive symptoms among youth with a history of clinical depression.

  20. Prediction of pathogen growth on iceberg lettuce under real temperature history during distribution from farm to table.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koseki, Shigenobu; Isobe, Seiichiro

    2005-10-25

    The growth of pathogenic bacteria Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella spp., and Listeria monocytogenes on iceberg lettuce under constant and fluctuating temperatures was modelled in order to estimate the microbial safety of this vegetable during distribution from the farm to the table. Firstly, we examined pathogen growth on lettuce at constant temperatures, ranging from 5 to 25 degrees C, and then we obtained the growth kinetic parameters (lag time, maximum growth rate (micro(max)), and maximum population density (MPD)) using the Baranyi primary growth model. The parameters were similar to those predicted by the pathogen modelling program (PMP), with the exception of MPD. The MPD of each pathogen on lettuce was 2-4 log(10) CFU/g lower than that predicted by PMP. Furthermore, the MPD of pathogens decreased with decreasing temperature. The relationship between mu(max) and temperature was linear in accordance with Ratkowsky secondary model as was the relationship between the MPD and temperature. Predictions of pathogen growth under fluctuating temperature used the Baranyi primary microbial growth model along with the Ratkowsky secondary model and MPD equation. The fluctuating temperature profile used in this study was the real temperature history measured during distribution from the field at harvesting to the retail store. Overall predictions for each pathogen agreed well with observed viable counts in most cases. The bias and root mean square error (RMSE) of the prediction were small. The prediction in which mu(max) was based on PMP showed a trend of overestimation relative to prediction based on lettuce. However, the prediction concerning E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella spp. on lettuce greatly overestimated growth in the case of a temperature history starting relatively high, such as 25 degrees C for 5 h. In contrast, the overall prediction of L. monocytogenes under the same circumstances agreed with the observed data.

  1. Can family history and cord blood IgE predict sensitization and allergic diseases up to adulthood?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borrits Pagh Nissen, Susanne; Fomsgaard Kjær, Henrik; Høst, Arne

    2015-01-01

    with high NPV and specificity, but low PPV and sensitivity. CONCLUSION: Although family history and elevated CB-IgE were significantly associated with primarily atopic disease until 26 yr, none of these were strong predictors for subsequent sensitization and allergic symptoms from childhood until early......BACKGROUND: Long-term studies of the predictive value of family history and cord blood IgE level until adulthood are few, and their conclusions have been contradictory. METHODS: Screening of total IgE in 1617 cord blood samples was performed in a Danish birth cohort. All infants with cord blood Ig...... used. RESULTS: A total of 455 infants were included, 188 with CB-IgE ≥0.5 kU/l and 267 with CB-IgE history and elevated CB-IgE were significantly associated to allergic disease until 26 yr. Concerning any allergic...

  2. Cosmological constraints from the CFHTLenS shear measurements using a new, accurate, and flexible way of predicting non-linear mass clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angulo, Raul E.; Hilbert, Stefan

    2015-03-01

    We explore the cosmological constraints from cosmic shear using a new way of modelling the non-linear matter correlation functions. The new formalism extends the method of Angulo & White, which manipulates outputs of N-body simulations to represent the 3D non-linear mass distribution in different cosmological scenarios. We show that predictions from our approach for shear two-point correlations at 1-300 arcmin separations are accurate at the ˜10 per cent level, even for extreme changes in cosmology. For moderate changes, with target cosmologies similar to that preferred by analyses of recent Planck data, the accuracy is close to ˜5 per cent. We combine this approach with a Monte Carlo Markov chain sampler to explore constraints on a Λ cold dark matter model from the shear correlation functions measured in the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS). We obtain constraints on the parameter combination σ8(Ωm/0.27)0.6 = 0.801 ± 0.028. Combined with results from cosmic microwave background data, we obtain marginalized constraints on σ8 = 0.81 ± 0.01 and Ωm = 0.29 ± 0.01. These results are statistically compatible with previous analyses, which supports the validity of our approach. We discuss the advantages of our method and the potential it offers, including a path to model in detail (i) the effects of baryons, (ii) high-order shear correlation functions, and (iii) galaxy-galaxy lensing, among others, in future high-precision cosmological analyses.

  3. Compound risk: History of traumatic stress predicts posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms and severity in sudden cardiac arrest survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosman, Lindsey; Ford, Jessica; Whited, Amanda; Cahill, John; Lampert, Rachel; Mosesso, Vincent N; Lawless, Christine; Sears, Samuel F

    2016-08-01

    Sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) survivors can develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) which is associated with worse clinical outcomes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and predictors of PTSD in a large sample of SCA survivors. Prior history of psychological trauma and the effects of repeated trauma exposure on subsequent PTSD and symptom severity after SCA were also explored. A retrospective, cross-sectional study of 188 SCA survivors from the Sudden Cardiac Arrest Association patient registry completed an online questionnaire that included measures of PTSD, trauma history, sociodemographics, general health, and cardiac history. Sixty-three (36.2%) SCA survivors in this sample scored above the clinical cutoff for PTSD. Female gender, worse general health, and younger age predicted PTSD symptoms after SCA. Additionally, 50.2% of SCA survivors (n = 95) reported a history of trauma exposure and 25.4% (n = 48) of the total sample endorsed a traumatic stress response to a historic trauma. Results indicated that a traumatic stress response to a historic trauma was a stronger predictor of PTSD after SCA (odds ratio = 4.77) than all other variables in the model. PTSD symptoms are present in over one-third of SCA survivors. While demographic or health history variables predicted PTSD after SCA, a history of traumatic stress response to a previous trauma emerged as the strongest predictor of these symptoms. Routine assessment and interdisciplinary management are discussed as potential ways to expedite survivors' recovery and return to daily living. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

  4. Prostate cancer risk prediction based on complete prostate cancer family history

    OpenAIRE

    Albright, Frederick; Stephenson, Robert A; Agarwal, Neeraj; Teerlink, Craig C; Lowrance, William T; Farnham, James M; Albright, Lisa A Cannon

    2014-01-01

    Background Prostate cancer (PC) relative risks (RRs) are typically estimated based on status of close relatives or presence of any affected relatives. This study provides RR estimates using extensive and specific PC family history. Methods A retrospective population-based study was undertaken to estimate RRs for PC based on complete family history of PC. A total of 635,443 males, all with ancestral genealogy data, were analyzed. RRs for PC were determined based upon PC rates estimated from ma...

  5. Sexual Anxiety and Eroticism Predict the Development of Sexual Problems in Youth With a History of Sexual Abuse

    OpenAIRE

    Simon, Valerie A.; Feiring, Candice

    2008-01-01

    Youth with confirmed histories of sexual abuse (N = 118) were followed longitudinally to examine associations between their initial sexual reactions to abuse and subsequent sexual functioning. Participants were interviewed at abuse discovery (ages 8 through 15) and again 1 and 6 years later. Eroticism and sexual anxiety emerged as distinct indices of abuse-specific sexual reactions and predicted subsequent sexual functioning. Eroticism was associated with indicators of heightened sexuality, i...

  6. Fracture predictive ability of physical performance tests and history of falls in elderly women: a 10-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wihlborg, A; Englund, M; Åkesson, K; Gerdhem, P

    2015-08-01

    In a large cohort of elderly women followed for 10 years, we found that balance, gait speed, and self-reported history of fall independently predicted fracture. These clinical risk factors are easily evaluated and therefore advantageous in a clinical setting. They would improve fracture risk assessment and thereby also fracture prevention. The aim of this study was to identify additional risk factors for osteoporosis-related fracture by investigating the fracture predictive ability of physical performance tests and self-reported history of falls. In the population-based Osteoporosis Prospective Risk Assessment study (OPRA), 1044 women were recruited at the age of 75 and followed for 10 years. At inclusion, knee extension force, standing balance, gait speed, and bone mineral density (BMD) were examined. Falls the year before investigation was assessed by questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to determine fracture hazard ratios (HR) with BMD, history of fracture, BMI, smoking habits, bisphosphonate, vitamin D, glucocorticoid, and alcohol use as covariates. Continuous variables were standardized and HR shown for each standard deviation change. Of all women, 427 (41%) sustained at least one fracture during the 10-year follow-up. Failing the balance test had an HR of 1.98 (1.18-3.32) for hip fracture. Each standard deviation decrease in gait speed was associated with an HR of 1.37 (1.14-1.64) for hip fracture. Previous fall had an HR of 1.30 (1.03-1.65) for any fracture; 1.39 (1.08-1.79) for any osteoporosis-related fracture; and 1.60 (1.03-2.48) for distal forearm fracture. Knee extension force did not show fracture predictability. The balance test, gait speed test, and self-reported history of fall all hold independent fracture predictability. Consideration of these clinical risk factors for fracture would improve the fracture risk assessment and subsequently also fracture prevention.

  7. A history of wind erosion prediction models in the United States Department of Agriculture: The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Development of the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) was officially inaugurated in 1985 by United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) scientists in response to customer requests, particularly those coming from the USDA Soil Conservation Service (SCS), for im...

  8. Bohmian histories and decoherent histories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartle, James B.

    2004-01-01

    The predictions of the Bohmian and the decoherent (or consistent) histories formulations of the quantum mechanics of a closed system are compared for histories--sequences of alternatives at a series of times. For certain kinds of histories, Bohmian mechanics and decoherent histories may both be formulated in the same mathematical framework within which they can be compared. In that framework, Bohmian mechanics and decoherent histories represent a given history by different operators. Their predictions for the probabilities of histories of a closed system therefore generally differ. However, in an idealized model of measurement, the predictions of Bohmian mechanics and decoherent histories coincide for the probabilities of records of measurement outcomes. The formulations are thus difficult to distinguish experimentally. They may differ in their accounts of the past history of the Universe in quantum cosmology

  9. Prediction of the pressure-time history due to fuel-sodium interaction in a subassembly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobs, H.

    1975-01-01

    A local cooling disturbance may lead to complete voiding of a subassembly and melt down of the fuel pins. Thus molten fuel may be accumulated and mixed with liquid sodium returning accidentally into the subassembly. The resulting fuel-sodium interaction (FSI) produces a pressure load on the surrounding core structures. It is necessary to prove that the corresponding core deformation neither initiates a nuclear excursion nor renders the shut down system inoperable. This requires the knowledge of the initiating FSI pressure time history. In this paper a theoretical pressure time history is presented which differs completely from all calculations known so far. (Auth.)

  10. Using Landsat-derived disturbance history (1972-2010) to predict current forest structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirk Pflugmacher; Warren B. Cohen; Robert E. Kennedy

    2012-01-01

    Lidar is currently the most accurate method for remote estimation of forest structure, but it has limited spatial and temporal coverage. Conversely, Landsat data are more widely available, but exhibit a weaker relationship with structure under medium to high leaf area conditions. One potentially valuable means of enhancing the relationship between Landsat reflectance...

  11. To help, or not to help, that is not the only question: An investigation of the interplay of different factors to predict helping behavior in an accurate and effective way.

    OpenAIRE

    Urschler, David F.

    2016-01-01

    Previous research has shown that people’s willingness to help those in need is influenced by a multitude of factors (e.g., perceived dangerousness of a situation, cost-benefit analysis, attributions of responsibility, kinship, status, and culture). However, past research has often focused on single factors to predict helping intentions. Therefore, the present thesis examines the interplay of different factors in order to predict helping intentions in the most accurate and effective way. Th...

  12. Does a history of bullying and abuse predict lower urinary tract symptoms, chronic pain, and sexual dysfunction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nault, Tori; Gupta, Priyanka; Ehlert, Michael; Dove-Medows, Emily; Seltzer, Marlene; Carrico, Donna J; Gilleran, Jason; Bartley, Jamie; Peters, Kenneth M; Sirls, Larry

    2016-11-01

    To investigate associations of bullying and abuse with pelvic floor symptoms, urogenital pain, and sexual health characteristics of women presenting to a multidisciplinary women's urology center. Retrospective review of a prospective database. Patients completed questions about bullying, abuse, sexual health and validated questionnaires including the Pelvic Floor Dysfunction Inventory (PFDI-20), Overactive Bladder Questionnaire (OAB-q), and visual analog scale (VAS 0-10) for genitourinary pain. Statistical analyses included Chi-squared and t tests, which compared victims of bullying and/or abuse to non-victims. Three hundred and eighty patients were reviewed. Three hundred and thirty-eight had data on bullying and abuse history. Out of 380, 94 (24.7 %) reported that they were victims of bullying. Out of 380, 104 (27.4 %) reported that they were victims of abuse. Women with a history of bullying and abuse had increased overall pain scores compared to those without a history of either. Women with a history of abuse and bullying had increased PFDI-20, POPDI, and UDI-6 scores compared to women who were not bullied or abused. There was no difference in being sexually active or in sexual satisfaction between the groups. Patients with a history of abuse and bullying had the greatest percentage of dyspareunia (p = 0.009). Women with a history of bullying, abuse, or both predict increased pelvic floor distress, urological symptoms, increased urogenital pain, and increased dyspareunia. Clinicians should screen for exposure to bullying or abuse in order to provide comprehensive resources to address these psychosocial issues.

  13. Family history predicts major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in young adults with psoriasis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Egeberg, Alexander; Bruun, Louise E; Mallbris, Lotus

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Patients with psoriasis may have increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular (CV) events (MACE), and a family history of CV disease (CVD) is an independent risk factor for MACE. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the risk of first-time MACE in patients with psoriasis with or without a fami....... The findings call for increased focus on a family history of CVD in CV risk assessment of patients with psoriasis.......BACKGROUND: Patients with psoriasis may have increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular (CV) events (MACE), and a family history of CV disease (CVD) is an independent risk factor for MACE. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the risk of first-time MACE in patients with psoriasis with or without a family...... history of CVD. METHODS: Between January 1, 1997, and December 31, 2011, we identified 2,722,375 individuals, including 25,774 and 4504 patients with mild and severe psoriasis, through administrative registers. Incidence rate ratios were estimated by Poisson regression. RESULTS: Mean baseline age was 26...

  14. History of preeclampsia is more predictive of cardiometabolic and cardiovascular risk factors than obesity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heidema, W.M.; Scholten, R.R.; Lotgering, F.K.; Spaanderman, M.E.A.

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine to what extent a history of preeclampsia affects traditional cardiometabolic (insulin resistance and dyslipidemia) and cardiovascular (hypertension and micro-albuminuria) risk factors of the metabolic syndrome irrespective of BMI. STUDY DESIGN: In a retrospective case-control

  15. Self-reported inhibition predicts history of suicide attempts in bipolar disorder and major depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponsoni, André; Branco, Laura Damiani; Cotrena, Charles; Shansis, Flávio Milman; Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo; Fonseca, Rochele Paz

    2018-04-01

    Studies have reliably identified an association between suicide attempts and executive functions such as decision making (DM) and inhibitory control (IC) in patients with mood disorders. As such, the present study aimed to investigate the association between inhibition, DM, impulsivity and the history of suicide attempts in individuals with bipolar (BD) or major depressive disorder (MDD), identifying which assessment instruments may be most strongly associated with suicide in clinical samples. The sample included 80 control subjects and two groups of patients with BD and MDD, matched by age and education (26 with a history of suicide attempts [MD+], and 26 with no such history [MD-]). Participants completed behavioral and self-report measures of DM and IC, which were compared between groups using ANCOVA, followed by logistic regression for patients with mood disorders only, and the presence or absence of a history of suicide as the outcome. Cognitive performance did not differ between groups. The MD+ group showed significantly higher motor and attentional impulsivity on the BIS-11 than the MD- and control groups. A regression analysis containing these scores showed that motor impulsivity was the only significant predictor of a history of suicide (OR = 1.14; 95%CI 1.00-1.30). Self-reported motor impulsivity was a significant predictor of suicide. These findings underscore the importance of self-report measures in neuropsychological assessment, and their contributions to the management and prognosis of patients with mood disorders. Lastly, they point to the role of impulsivity as a target for interventions and public policy on suicide prevention. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Family history of cancer predicts endometrial cancer risk independently of Lynch Syndrome: Implications for genetic counselling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnatty, Sharon E; Tan, Yen Y; Buchanan, Daniel D; Bowman, Michael; Walters, Rhiannon J; Obermair, Andreas; Quinn, Michael A; Blomfield, Penelope B; Brand, Alison; Leung, Yee; Oehler, Martin K; Kirk, Judy A; O'Mara, Tracy A; Webb, Penelope M; Spurdle, Amanda B

    2017-11-01

    To determine endometrial cancer (EC) risk according to family cancer history, including assessment by degree of relatedness, type of and age at cancer diagnosis of relatives. Self-reported family cancer history was available for 1353 EC patients and 628 controls. Logistic regression was used to quantify the association between EC and cancer diagnosis in ≥1 first or second degree relative, and to assess whether level of risk differed by degree of relationship and/or relative's age at diagnosis. Risk was also evaluated for family history of up to three cancers from known familial syndromes (Lynch, Cowden, hereditary breast and ovarian cancer) overall, by histological subtype and, for a subset of 678 patients, by EC tumor mismatch repair (MMR) gene expression. Report of EC in ≥1 first- or second-degree relative was associated with significantly increased risk of EC (P=3.8×10 -7 ), independent of lifestyle risk factors. There was a trend in increasing EC risk with closer relatedness and younger age at EC diagnosis in relatives (P Trend =4.43×10 -6 ), and with increasing numbers of Lynch cancers in relatives (P Trend ≤0.0001). EC risk associated with family history did not differ by proband tumor MMR status, or histological subtype. Reported EC in first- or second-degree relatives remained associated with EC risk after conservative correction for potential misreported family history (OR 2.0; 95% CI, 1.24-3.37, P=0.004). The strongest predictor of EC risk was closer relatedness and younger EC diagnosis age in ≥1 relative. Associations remained significant irrespective of proband MMR status, and after excluding MMR pathogenic variant carriers, indicating that Lynch syndrome genes do not fully explain familial EC risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Interrelationship between family history of alcoholism and generational status in the prediction of alcohol dependence in US Hispanics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chartier, K G; Thomas, N S; Kendler, K S

    2017-01-01

    Both a family history of alcoholism and migration-related factors like US v. foreign nativity increase the risk for developing alcohol use disorders in Hispanic Americans. For this study, we integrated these two lines of research to test whether the relationship between familial alcoholism and alcohol dependence changes with successive generations in the United States. Data were from the waves 1 and 2 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Subjects self-identified Hispanic ethnicity (N = 4122; n = 1784 first, n = 1169 second, and n = 1169 third or later generation) and reported ever consuming ⩾12 drinks in a 1-year period. A family history of alcoholism was assessed in first- and second-degree relatives. Analyses predicting the number of alcohol dependence symptoms were path models. Alcohol dependence symptoms were associated with a stronger family history of alcoholism and later generational status. There was a significant interaction effect between familial alcoholism and generational status; the relationship of familial alcoholism with alcohol dependence symptoms increased significantly with successive generations in the United States, more strongly in women than men. Acculturation partially mediated the interaction effect between familial alcoholism and generational status on alcohol dependence, although not in the expected direction. Familial alcoholism interacted with generational status in predicting alcohol dependence symptoms in US Hispanic drinkers. This relationship suggests that heritability for alcoholism is influenced by a higher-order environmental factor, likely characterized by a relaxing of social restrictions on drinking.

  18. Predicting the natural mortality of marine fish from life history characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gislason, Henrik

    For fish much of the life history is determined by body size. Body size and asymptotic size significantly influences important life history processes such as growth, maturity, egg production, and natural mortality. Futhermore, for a population to persist, offspring must be able to replace...... their parents on a one-for-one basis in the long run. Otherwise the population would either increase exponentially or become extinct. Combining data on growth and specific fecundity in a size-based fish community model of the North Sea and using the requirement of a one-for-one replacement provides...... the information necessary to estimate the scaling of natural mortality with size and asymptotic size. The estimated scaling is compared with output from multispecies fish stock models, with the empirical scaling of the maximum number of recruits per unit of spawning stock biomass with body size...

  19. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio predicting suicide risk in euthymic patients with bipolar disorder: Moderatory effect of family history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivković, Maja; Pantović-Stefanović, Maja; Dunjić-Kostić, Bojana; Jurišić, Vladimir; Lačković, Maja; Totić-Poznanović, Sanja; Jovanović, Aleksandar A; Damjanović, Aleksandar

    2016-04-01

    Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been independently related to bipolar disorder (BD) and factors associated with suicidal risk. The aim of our study was to explore the relationship between NLR and suicide risk in euthymic BD patients. We also sought to propose a model of interaction between NLR and stress-diathesis factors, leading to suicidal risk in BD. The study group consisted of 83 patients diagnosed with BD (36 suicide attempters; 47 suicide non-attempters), compared to the healthy control group (n=73) and matched according to age, gender, and body mass index (BMI). NLR was measured according to the complete blood count. Mood symptoms have been assessed by Young Mania Rating Scale and Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale. Early trauma and acute stress were evaluated by Early Trauma Inventory Self Report-Short Form and List of Threatening Experiences Questionnaire, respectively. Suicide risk has been assessed by Suicide Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised (SBQ-R). Significant correlation was found between NLR and SBQ-R score. The main effects of suicide attempts on NLR, after covarying for confounders, were observed, indicating increased NLR in BD suicide attempters compared to healthy controls. We found significant moderatory effects of family history on NLR relationship to suicidal risk, with NLR being significant positive predictor of suicidal risk only in the patients with positive family history of suicide attempts. The results suggest an enhancing effect of positive family history of suicide attempts on predictive effect of NLR on suicide risk. Our data support the idea that immune markers can predict suicide attempt risk in BD, but only in the subpopulation of BD patients with family history of suicide attempts. This could lead to prevention in suicide behavior in the patient population at particular risk of suicide. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. An index predictive of cognitive outcome in retired professional American Football players with a history of sports concussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Mathew J; Woo, Ellen; Birath, J Brandon; Siders, Craig A; Kelly, Daniel F; Wang, Christina; Swerdloff, Ronald; Romero, Elizabeth; Kernan, Claudia; Cantu, Robert C; Guskiewicz, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    Various concussion characteristics and personal factors are associated with cognitive recovery in athletes. We developed an index based on concussion frequency, severity, and timeframe, as well as cognitive reserve (CR), and we assessed its predictive power regarding cognitive ability in retired professional football players. Data from 40 retired professional American football players were used in the current study. On average, participants had been retired from football for 20 years. Current neuropsychological performances, indicators of CR, concussion history, and play data were used to create an index for predicting cognitive outcome. The sample displayed a range of concussions, concussion severities, seasons played, CR, and cognitive ability. Many of the participants demonstrated cognitive deficits. The index strongly predicted global cognitive ability (R(2) = .31). The index also predicted the number of areas of neuropsychological deficit, which varied as a function of the deficit classification system used (Heaton: R(2) = .15; Wechsler: R(2) = .28). The current study demonstrated that a unique combination of CR, sports concussion, and game-related data can predict cognitive outcomes in participants who had been retired from professional American football for an average of 20 years. Such indices may prove to be useful for clinical decision making and research.

  1. Evaluation of stress histories of reactor coolant loop piping for pipe rupture prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, S.C.; Larder, R.A.; Ma, S.M.

    1981-01-01

    This paper describes the analyses used to evaluate stress histories in the primary coolant loop piping of a selected four-loop PNR power station. In order to make the simulation as realistic as possible, best estimates rather than conservative assumptions were considered throughout. The best estimate solution, however, was aided by a sensitivity study to assess the possible variation of outcomes resulted from uncertainties associated with these assumptions. Sources of stresses considered in the evaluation were pressure, dead weight, thermal expansion, thermal gradients through the pipe wall, residual welding, pump vibrations, and finally seismic excitations. The best estimates of pressure and thermal transient histories arising from plant operations were based on actual plant operation records supplemented by specified plant design conditions. Seismic motions were generated from response spectrum curves developed specifically for the region surrounding the plant site. Stresses due to dead weight and thermal expansion were computed from a three dimensional finite element model which used a combination of pipe, truss, and beam elements to represent the coolant loop piping, the pressure vessel, coolant pumps, steam generators, and the pressurizer. Stresses due to pressure and thermal gradients were obtained by closed form solutions. Seismic stress calculations considered the soil structure interaction, the coupling effect between the containment structure and the reactor coolant system. A time history method was employed for the seismic analysis. Calculations of residual stresses accounted for the actual heat impact, welding speed, weld preparation geometry, and pre- and post-heat treatments. Vibrational stresses due to pump operation were estimated by a dynamic analysis using existing measurements of pump vibrations. (orig./HP)

  2. A History of Non-Parental Care in Childhood Predicts More Positive Adult Attitudes towards Non-Parental Care and Maternal Employment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shpancer, Noam; Schweitzer, Stefanie N.

    2018-01-01

    Data were collected over a 15-year span from three comparable cohorts of students at a Midwestern university about their childcare histories and current attitudes towards non-parental childcare and maternal employment. Across cohorts, a history of non-parental childcare predicted adult attitudes towards non-parental childcare and maternal…

  3. Substance Abuse among High-Risk Sexual Offenders: Do Measures of Lifetime History of Substance Abuse Add to the Prediction of Recidivism over Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Looman, Jan; Abracen, Jeffrey

    2011-01-01

    There has been relatively little research on the degree to which measures of lifetime history of substance abuse add to the prediction of risk based on actuarial measures alone among sexual offenders. This issue is of relevance in that a history of substance abuse is related to relapse to substance using behavior. Furthermore, substance use has…

  4. Predicting Prognosis for the Conduct-Problem Boy: Can Family History Help?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odgers, Candice L.; Milne, Barry J.; Caspi, Avshalom; Crump, Raewyn; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E.

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Many children with conduct disorder develop life-course persistent antisocial behavior; however, other children exhibit childhood-limited or adolescence-limited conduct disorder symptoms and escape poor adult outcomes. Prospective prediction of long-term prognosis in pediatric and adolescent clinical settings is difficult. Improved…

  5. Masculine norms, disclosure, and childhood adversities predict long-term mental distress among men with histories of child sexual abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easton, Scott D

    2014-02-01

    Child sexual abuse (CSA) can have a profound effect on the long-term mental health of boys/men. However, not all men with histories of CSA experience psychopathology. To improve prevention and intervention services, more research is needed to understand why some male survivors experience mental health problems and others do not. The purpose of this study was to examine factors related to mental distress among a large, non-clinical sample of men with histories of CSA (N=487). Using a cross-sectional design with purposive sampling from three national survivor organizations, data were collected through an anonymous Internet-based survey. Multivariate analyses found that only one of the four CSA severity variables-use of physical force by the abuser-was related to mental distress. Additional factors that were related to mental distress included the number of other childhood adversities, years until disclosure, overall response to disclosure, and conformity to masculine norms. Overall, the final model predicted 36% of the variance in the number of mental health symptoms. Mental health practitioners should include masculine norms, disclosure history, and childhood adversities in assessments and intervention planning with male survivors. To more fully explicate risk factors for psychopathology in this population, future studies with probability samples of men that focus on mediational processes and use longitudinal designs are needed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. NetMHC-3.0: accurate web accessible predictions of human, mouse and monkey MHC class I affinities for peptides of length 8-11.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundegaard, Claus; Lamberth, Kasper; Harndahl, Mikkel; Buus, Søren; Lund, Ole; Nielsen, Morten

    2008-07-01

    NetMHC-3.0 is trained on a large number of quantitative peptide data using both affinity data from the Immune Epitope Database and Analysis Resource (IEDB) and elution data from SYFPEITHI. The method generates high-accuracy predictions of major histocompatibility complex (MHC): peptide binding. The predictions are based on artificial neural networks trained on data from 55 MHC alleles (43 Human and 12 non-human), and position-specific scoring matrices (PSSMs) for additional 67 HLA alleles. As only the MHC class I prediction server is available, predictions are possible for peptides of length 8-11 for all 122 alleles. artificial neural network predictions are given as actual IC(50) values whereas PSSM predictions are given as a log-odds likelihood scores. The output is optionally available as download for easy post-processing. The training method underlying the server is the best available, and has been used to predict possible MHC-binding peptides in a series of pathogen viral proteomes including SARS, Influenza and HIV, resulting in an average of 75-80% confirmed MHC binders. Here, the performance is further validated and benchmarked using a large set of newly published affinity data, non-redundant to the training set. The server is free of use and available at: http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetMHC.

  7. Using life-histories to predict and interpret variability in yolk hormones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, O P; Gilchrist, H G; Bêty, J; Wynne-Edwards, K E; Berzins, L; Williams, T D

    2009-09-01

    Variation in yolk hormones is assumed to provide the plasticity necessary for mothers to individually optimize reproductive decisions via changes in offspring phenotype, the benefit being to maximise fitness. However, rather than routinely expecting adaptive variation within all species, the pattern and magnitude of yolk hormone deposition should theoretically relate to variation in life-histories. Here we present data on intra-clutch variation in yolk corticosterone in three species along a developmental continuum (European starling (Sturnus vulgaris): fully altricial; black guillemot (Cepphus grylle): semi-precocial; common eider (Somateria mollissima): fully precocial) to examine how and why variation in life-histories might relate to the evolution of variation in yolk steroids. Starlings and guillemots showed a significant increase in yolk corticosterone across the laying sequence; however, we found no pattern within eider clutches. Moreover, starlings showed the largest difference (94.6%) in yolk corticosterone between first- and last-laid eggs, whereas guillemots showed a moderate difference (58.9%). Despite these general species-specific patterns, individuals showed marked variation in the intra-clutch patterns of yolk corticosterone within each species indicating potential differences in intra-clutch flexibility among females. It is well documented that exposure to elevated yolk glucocorticoids reduces offspring quality at birth/hatching in many taxa and it has therefore been proposed that elevated yolk levels may modulate offspring competition and/or facilitate brood reduction under harsh conditions in birds. Our data suggests that intra-clutch variation in yolk corticosterone has the potential to act as an adaptive maternal effect in species where modulation of competition between nest-bound offspring would benefit mothers (starlings and guillemots). However, in precocial species where mothers would not benefit from a modulation of offspring quality

  8. History of preeclampsia is more predictive of cardiometabolic and cardiovascular risk factors than obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidema, Wieteke M; Scholten, Ralph R; Lotgering, Fred K; Spaanderman, Marc E A

    2015-11-01

    To determine to what extent a history of preeclampsia affects traditional cardiometabolic (insulin resistance and dyslipidemia) and cardiovascular (hypertension and micro-albuminuria) risk factors of the metabolic syndrome irrespective of BMI. In a retrospective case-control study we compared 90 formerly preeclamptic women, divided in 3 BMI-classes (BMI 19.5-24.9, 25.0-29.9, ≥30.0kg/m(2)) to 30 controls, matched for BMI, age and parity. Cardiometabolic and cardiovascular risk factors (WHO-criteria) were tested 6-18 months post partum. Statistical analysis included unpaired t-tests, Mann-Whitney U test, or Chi square test and two-way ANOVA. Constituents of the metabolic syndrome (glucose, insulin, HOMAIR, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, blood pressure, micro-albuminuria) were higher in formerly preeclamptic women than in BMI-matched controls. Resultantly, traditional risk factors were more prevalent in formerly preeclamptic women than in controls (insulin resistance 80% vs 30%, dyslipidemia 52% vs 3%, hypertension 24% vs 0%, micro-albuminuria 30% vs 0%). Cardiometabolic risk factors increased with BMI, to the same extent in both groups. Formerly preeclamptic women had metabolic syndrome more often than their BMI-matched controls (38% vs 3%, p<0.001). Traditional risk factors of the metabolic syndrome are more prevalent in formerly preeclamptic women than in BMI-matched controls and increase with BMI to the same extent in both groups. A history of preeclampsia seems to be a stronger indicator of cardiovascular risk than obesity per se. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Prediction of thermal and mechanical stress-strain responses of TMC's subjected to complex TMF histories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, W. S.; Mirdamadi, M.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents an experimental and analytical evaluation of cross-plied laminates of Ti-15V-3Cr-3Al-3Sn (Ti-15-3) matrix reinforced with continuous silicon-carbide fibers (SCS-6) subjected to a complex TMF loading profile. Thermomechanical fatigue test techniques were developed to conduct a simulation of a generic hypersonic flight profile. A micromechanical analysis was used. The analysis predicts the stress-strain response of the laminate and of the constituents in each ply during thermal and mechanical cycling by using only constituent properties as input. The fiber was modeled as elastic with transverse orthotropic and temperature-dependent properties. The matrix was modeled using a thermoviscoplastic constitutive relation. The fiber transverse modulus was reduced in the analysis to simulate the fiber-matrix interface failures. Excellent correlation was found between measured and predicted laminate stress-strain response due to generic hypersonic flight profile when fiber debonding was modeled.

  10. Space Shuttle Launch Probability Analysis: Understanding History so We Can Predict the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cates, Grant R.

    2014-01-01

    The Space Shuttle was launched 135 times and nearly half of those launches required 2 or more launch attempts. The Space Shuttle launch countdown historical data of 250 launch attempts provides a wealth of data that is important to analyze for strictly historical purposes as well as for use in predicting future launch vehicle launch countdown performance. This paper provides a statistical analysis of all Space Shuttle launch attempts including the empirical probability of launch on any given attempt and the cumulative probability of launch relative to the planned launch date at the start of the initial launch countdown. This information can be used to facilitate launch probability predictions of future launch vehicles such as NASA's Space Shuttle derived SLS. Understanding the cumulative probability of launch is particularly important for missions to Mars since the launch opportunities are relatively short in duration and one must wait for 2 years before a subsequent attempt can begin.

  11. Accurate prediction of subcellular location of apoptosis proteins combining Chou’s PseAAC and PsePSSM based on wavelet denoising

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cheng; Chen, Rui-Xin; Wang, Lei; Wang, Ming-Hui; Zhang, Yan

    2017-01-01

    Apoptosis proteins subcellular localization information are very important for understanding the mechanism of programmed cell death and the development of drugs. The prediction of subcellular localization of an apoptosis protein is still a challenging task because the prediction of apoptosis proteins subcellular localization can help to understand their function and the role of metabolic processes. In this paper, we propose a novel method for protein subcellular localization prediction. Firstly, the features of the protein sequence are extracted by combining Chou's pseudo amino acid composition (PseAAC) and pseudo-position specific scoring matrix (PsePSSM), then the feature information of the extracted is denoised by two-dimensional (2-D) wavelet denoising. Finally, the optimal feature vectors are input to the SVM classifier to predict subcellular location of apoptosis proteins. Quite promising predictions are obtained using the jackknife test on three widely used datasets and compared with other state-of-the-art methods. The results indicate that the method proposed in this paper can remarkably improve the prediction accuracy of apoptosis protein subcellular localization, which will be a supplementary tool for future proteomics research. PMID:29296195

  12. The predictive power of family history measures of alcohol and drug problems and internalizing disorders in a college population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendler, Kenneth S; Edwards, Alexis; Myers, John; Cho, Seung Bin; Adkins, Amy; Dick, Danielle

    2015-07-01

    A family history (FH) of psychiatric and substance use problems is a potent risk factor for common internalizing and externalizing disorders. In a large web-based assessment of mental health in college students, we developed a brief set of screening questions for a FH of alcohol problems (AP), drug problems (DP) and depression-anxiety in four classes of relatives (father, mother, aunts/uncles/grandparents, and siblings) as reported by the student. Positive reports of a history of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety were substantially correlated within relatives. These FH measures predicted in the student, in an expected pattern, dimensions of personality and impulsivity, alcohol consumption and problems, smoking and nicotine dependence, use of illicit drugs, and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Using the mean score from the four classes of relatives was more predictive than using a familial/sporadic dichotomy. Interactions were seen between the FH of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety and peer deviance in predicting symptoms of alcohol and tobacco dependence. As the students aged, the FH of AP became a stronger predictor of alcohol problems. While we cannot directly assess the validity of these FH reports, the pattern of findings suggest that our brief screening items were able to assess, with some accuracy, the FH of substance misuse and internalizing psychiatric disorders in relatives. If correct, these measures can play an important role in the creation of developmental etiologic models for substance and internalizing psychiatric disorders which constitute one of the central goals of the overall project. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Impossible Predictions of the Unprecedented: Analogy, History, and the Work of Prognostication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denning, Kathryn

    At the beginning of exobiology and SETI as research programs circa 1960, it was reasonable and responsible for scientists and others to consider the potential effects of a detection of other life, or contact with it, upon humanity. It is no coincidence that this was a time of reckoning with the power of science and technology. The Cold War was settling in, space programs were beginning, and the technologies of war and those of discovery were then, as now, intertwined, in a way that made Carl Sagan, Philip Morrison, Joshua Lederberg, and others, concerned for humanity's future, and the future of life. Those concerns are as well-founded as ever. However, 50 years on, after half a century of predictions and untested hypotheses, we still only know that a detection of extraterrestrial life could come tomorrow, in the next century, or never. Many potential scenarios have been identified and explored, planetary protection protocols have been implemented for astrobiology, policy concerning SETI detections has been created and debated, and some valuable empirical work has been done concerning potential cultural reactions. We might now reasonably ask: what are our real goals here? And do they match what we are actually accomplishing? Are these exercises still beneficial, or are they reaching the point of diminishing returns? Might there be undesirable effects of prognostications about detection and contact? Elsewhere, I have discussed at some length what I think can sensibly be done to prepare for a detection. This leaves me with a further argument to make here: first, that the use of historical analogies of intercultural contact on Earth to predict or explore the potential consequences of contact with ETI may now be essentially useless or perhaps worse than useless; second, that the longstanding practice of prediction about contact now also invites scrutiny in terms of its utility; and third, that turning our attention to pressing topics at the intersection of astrobiology

  14. Integrated predictive maintenance program vibration and lube oil analysis: Part I - history and the vibration program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maxwell, H.

    1996-12-01

    This paper is the first of two papers which describe the Predictive Maintenance Program for rotating machines at the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station. The organization has recently been restructured and significant benefits have been realized by the interaction, or {open_quotes}synergy{close_quotes} between the Vibration Program and the Lube Oil Analysis Program. This paper starts with the oldest part of the program - the Vibration Program and discusses the evolution of the program to its current state. The {open_quotes}Vibration{close_quotes} view of the combined program is then presented.

  15. Integrated predictive maintenance program vibration and lube oil analysis: Part I - history and the vibration program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maxwell, H.

    1996-01-01

    This paper is the first of two papers which describe the Predictive Maintenance Program for rotating machines at the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station. The organization has recently been restructured and significant benefits have been realized by the interaction, or open-quotes synergyclose quotes between the Vibration Program and the Lube Oil Analysis Program. This paper starts with the oldest part of the program - the Vibration Program and discusses the evolution of the program to its current state. The open-quotes Vibrationclose quotes view of the combined program is then presented

  16. The physics of Wall Street a brief history of predicting the unpredictable

    CERN Document Server

    Weatherall, James Owen

    2013-01-01

    After the economic meltdown of 2008, Warren Buffett famously warned, “beware of geeks bearing formulas.” But as James Weatherall demonstrates, not all geeks are created equal. While many of the mathematicians and software engineers on Wall Street failed when their abstractions turned ugly in practice, a special breed of physicists has a much deeper history of revolutionizing finance. Taking us from fin-de-siècle Paris to Rat Pack-era Las Vegas, from wartime government labs to Yippie communes on the Pacific coast, Weatherall shows how physicists successfully brought their science to bear on some of the thorniest problems in economics, from options pricing to bubbles. The crisis was partly a failure of mathematical modeling. But even more, it was a failure of some very sophisticated financial institutions to think like physicists. Models—whether in science or finance—have limitations; they break down under certain conditions. And in 2008, sophisticated models fell into the hands of people who didn’t...

  17. The accurate definition of metabolic volumes on 18F-FDG-PET before treatment allows the response to chemoradiotherapy to be predicted in the case of oesophagus cancers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatt, M.; Cheze-Le Rest, C.; Visvikis, D.; Pradier, O.

    2011-01-01

    This study aims at assessing the possibility of prediction of the response of locally advanced oesophagus cancers, even before the beginning of treatment, by using metabolic volume measurements performed on 18 F-FDG PET images made before the treatment. Medical files of 50 patients have been analyzed. According to the observed responses, and to metabolic volume and Total Lesion Glycosis (TLG) values, it appears that the images allow the extraction of parameters, such as the TLG, which are criteria for the prediction of the therapeutic response. Short communication

  18. Edaphic history over seedling characters predicts integration and plasticity of integration across geologically variable populations of Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousins, Elsa A; Murren, Courtney J

    2017-12-01

    Studies on phenotypic plasticity and plasticity of integration have uncovered functionally linked modules of aboveground traits and seedlings of Arabidopsis thaliana , but we lack details about belowground variation in adult plants. Functional modules can be comprised of additional suites of traits that respond to environmental variation. We assessed whether shoot and root responses to nutrient environments in adult A. thaliana were predictable from seedling traits or population-specific geologic soil characteristics at the site of origin. We compared 17 natural accessions from across the native range of A. thaliana using 14-day-old seedlings grown on agar or sand and plants grown to maturity across nutrient treatments in sand. We measured aboveground size, reproduction, timing traits, root length, and root diameter. Edaphic characteristics were obtained from a global-scale dataset and related to field data. We detected significant among-population variation in root traits of seedlings and adults and in plasticity in aboveground and belowground traits of adult plants. Phenotypic integration of roots and shoots varied by population and environment. Relative integration was greater in roots than in shoots, and integration was predicted by edaphic soil history, particularly organic carbon content, whereas seedling traits did not predict later ontogenetic stages. Soil environment of origin has significant effects on phenotypic plasticity in response to nutrients, and on phenotypic integration of root modules and shoot modules. Root traits varied among populations in reproductively mature individuals, indicating potential for adaptive and integrated functional responses of root systems in annuals. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

  19. A new approach for diagnosing type 1 diabetes in autoantibody-positive individuals based on prediction and natural history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosenko, Jay M; Skyler, Jay S; DiMeglio, Linda A; Beam, Craig A; Krischer, Jeffrey P; Greenbaum, Carla J; Boulware, David; Rafkin, Lisa E; Matheson, Della; Herold, Kevan C; Mahon, Jeffrey; Palmer, Jerry P

    2015-02-01

    We assessed whether type 1 diabetes (T1D) can be diagnosed earlier using a new approach based on prediction and natural history in autoantibody-positive individuals. Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) and TrialNet Natural History Study (TNNHS) participants were studied. A metabolic index, the T1D Diagnostic Index60 (Index60), was developed from 2-h oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) using the log fasting C-peptide, 60-min C-peptide, and 60-min glucose. OGTTs with Index60 ≥2.00 and 2-h glucose <200 mg/dL (Ind60+Only) were compared with Index60 <2.00 and 2-h glucose ≥200 mg/dL (2hglu+Only) OGTTs as criteria for T1D. Individuals were assessed for C-peptide loss from the first Ind60+Only OGTT to diagnosis. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves were significantly higher for Index60 than for the 2-h glucose (P < 0.001 for both DPT-1 and the TNNHS). As a diagnostic criterion, sensitivity was higher for Ind60+Only than for 2hglu+Only (0.44 vs. 0.15 in DPT-1; 0.26 vs. 0.17 in the TNNHS) OGTTs. Specificity was somewhat higher for 2hglu+Only OGTTs in DPT-1 (0.97 vs. 0.91) but equivalent in the TNNHS (0.98 for both). Positive and negative predictive values were higher for Ind60+Only OGTTs in both studies. Postchallenge C-peptide levels declined significantly at each OGTT time point from the first Ind60+Only OGTT to the time of standard diagnosis (range -22 to -34% in DPT-1 and -14 to -27% in the TNNHS). C-peptide and glucose patterns differed markedly between Ind60+Only and 2hglu+Only OGTTs. An approach based on prediction and natural history appears to have utility for diagnosing T1D. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

  20. Human glycemic response curves after intake of carbohydrate foods are accurately predicted by combining in vitro gastrointestinal digestion with in silico kinetic modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susann Bellmann

    2018-02-01

    Conclusion: Based on the demonstrated accuracy and predictive quality, this in vitro–in silico technology can be used for the testing of food products on their glycemic response under standardized conditions and may stimulate the production of (slow carbs for the prevention of metabolic diseases.

  1. NetMHC-3.0: accurate web accessible predictions of human, mouse and monkey MHC class I affinities for peptides of length 8-11

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundegaard, Claus; Lamberth, K; Harndahl, M

    2008-01-01

    NetMHC-3.0 is trained on a large number of quantitative peptide data using both affinity data from the Immune Epitope Database and Analysis Resource (IEDB) and elution data from SYFPEITHI. The method generates high-accuracy predictions of major histocompatibility complex (MHC): peptide binding...

  2. A history of childhood maltreatment among spouses predicts violence against women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Faris, Heba; Al-Faris, Huda; Al-Faris, Eiad; Naghma, Naeem; Jamal, Amr; AlQuaiz, Aljoharah Mohammed; Al-Thebaity, Rasha; Al-Zahrani, Monira; Qusti, Noor; Al-Ahmadi, Rawan; Hakami, Salha; Al-Mutairi, Sara Ghazi; Al-Moneef, Maha; Al-Osaimi, Shorooq; Al-Sulaim, Toka; Qureshi, Riaz; Irfan, Farhana; Feeley, Philip

    2013-01-01

    Violence against women (VAW) is a worldwide problem that adversely affects women physically, psychologically, sexually, and financially. The aim of this study was to investigate (1) the rate of self-reported physical violence from husbands among women who presented to outpatient clinics of a major teaching hospital (2) the variables associated with VAW and (3) the pattern and the consequences of abuse on the victims' health. This cross-sectional study was conducted over a 6-month period, commencing in December 2009 at King Khalid University Hospital (KKUH), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Women attending outpatient clinics regularly at KKUH, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, were eligible for the study. The WHO VAW Instrument was used with some modifications to accommodate for the local culture. A total of 222 Saudi women whose age ranged from 15 to 70 years were enrolled in the study. The rate of physical violence in the current study was 12.2%. Statistically significant associations were found between the self-reporting of VAW and the physical abuse of their husbands during childhood (odds ratio [OR]=8, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.2, 28.5, P=.002). Similarly living in rented houses resulted in higher likelihood of the wife being abused (OR=4.23, CI: 1.706, 10.49, P=.002). The likelihood increased if there was a history of wives being abused as a child (OR=3.563, CI: 1.438, 8.824, P=.008) and if their husbands were unemployed (OR=5.29, CI: 1.6, 17.57, P=.012). Furthermore, women who described family life as bad or disastrous were found more likely to be physically abused (OR=5.8, CI: 2.3, 14.5, P=.001). VAW is a significant social and public health problem in the Saudi society. Health professionals may need to consider the diagnosis, when the risk factors identified in the current study are found.

  3. Fecal Calprotectin is an Accurate Tool and Correlated to Seo Index in Prediction of Relapse in Iranian Patients With Ulcerative Colitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Seyed Vahid; Jafari, Peyman; Taghavi, Seyed Alireza; Safarpour, Ali Reza; Rezaianzadeh, Abbas; Moini, Maryam; Mehrabi, Manoosh

    2015-02-01

    The natural clinical course of Ulcerative Colitis (UC) is characterized by episodes of relapse and remission. Fecal Calprotectin (FC) is a relatively new marker of intestinal inflammation and is an available, non-expensive tool for predicting relapse of quiescent UC. The Seo colitis activity index is a clinical index for assessment of the severity of UC. The present study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of FC and the Seo colitis activity index and their correlation in prediction of UC exacerbation. In this prospective cohort study, 157 patients with clinical and endoscopic diagnosis of UC selected randomly from 1273 registered patients in Fars province's IBD registry center in Shiraz, Iran, were followed from October 2012 to October 2013 for 12 months or shorter, if they had a relapse. Two patients left the study before completion and one patient had relapse because of discontinuation of drugs. The participants' clinical and serum factors were evaluated every three months. Furthermore, stool samples were collected at the beginning of study and every three months and FC concentration (commercially available enzyme linked immunoassay) and the Seo Index were assessed. Then univariate analysis, multiple variable logistic regression, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis, and Pearson's correlation test (r) were used for statistical analysis of data. According to the results, 74 patients (48.1%) relapsed during the follow-up (33 men and 41 women). Mean ± SD of FC was 862.82 ± 655.97 μg/g and 163.19 ± 215.85 μg/g in relapsing and non-relapsing patients, respectively (P Seo index were significant predictors of relapse. ROC curve analysis of FC level and Seo activity index for prediction of relapse demonstrated area under the curve of 0.882 (P Seo index was significant in prediction of relapse (r = 0.63, P Seo activity index in prediction of relapse in the course of quiescent UC in Iranian patients.

  4. Climatic, Edaphic Factors and Cropping History Help Predict Click Beetle (Coleoptera: Elateridae) (Agriotes spp.) Abundance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozina, A; Lemic, D; Bazok, R; Mikac, K M; Mclean, C M; Ivezić, M; Igrc Barčić, J

    2015-01-01

    It is assumed that the abundance of Agriotes wireworms (Coleoptera: Elateridae) is affected by agro-ecological factors such as climatic and edaphic factors and the crop/previous crop grown at the sites investigated. The aim of this study, conducted in three different geographic counties in Croatia from 2007 to 2009, was to determine the factors that influence the abundance of adult click beetle of the species Agriotes brevis Cand., Agriotes lineatus (L.), Agriotes obscurus (L.), Agriotes sputator (L.), and Agriotes ustulatus Schall. The mean annual air temperature, total rainfall, percentage of coarse and fine sand, coarse and fine silt and clay, the soil pH, and humus were investigated as potential factors that may influence abundance. Adult click beetle emergence was monitored using sex pheromone traps (YATLORf and VARb3). Exploratory data analysis was preformed via regression tree models and regional differences in Agriotes species' abundance were predicted based on the agro-ecological factors measured. It was found that the best overall predictor of A. brevis abundance was the previous crop grown. Conversely, the best predictor of A. lineatus abundance was the current crop being grown and the percentage of humus. The best predictor of A. obscurus abundance was soil pH in KCl. The best predictor of A. sputator abundance was rainfall. Finally, the best predictors of A. ustulatus abundance were soil pH in KCl and humus. These results may be useful in regional pest control programs or for predicting future outbreaks of these species. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

  5. Comparison of loline alkaloid gene clusters across fungal endophytes: predicting the co-regulatory sequence motifs and the evolutionary history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutil, Brandi L; Greenwald, Charles; Liu, Gang; Spiering, Martin J; Schardl, Christopher L; Wilkinson, Heather H

    2007-10-01

    LOL, a fungal secondary metabolite gene cluster found in Epichloë and Neotyphodium species, is responsible for production of insecticidal loline alkaloids. To analyze the genetic architecture and to predict the evolutionary history of LOL, we compared five clusters from four fungal species (single clusters from Epichloë festucae, Neotyphodium sp. PauTG-1, Neotyphodium coenophialum, and two clusters we previously characterized in Neotyphodium uncinatum). Using PhyloCon to compare putative lol gene promoter regions, we have identified four motifs conserved across the lol genes in all five clusters. Each motif has significant similarity to known fungal transcription factor binding sites in the TRANSFAC database. Conservation of these motifs is further support for the hypothesis that the lol genes are co-regulated. Interestingly, the history of asexual Neotyphodium spp. includes multiple interspecific hybridization events. Comparing clusters from three Neotyphodium species and E. festucae allowed us to determine which Epichloë ancestors are the most likely contributors of LOL in these asexual species. For example, while no present day Epichloë typhina isolates are known to produce lolines, our data support the hypothesis that the E. typhina ancestor(s) of three asexual endophyte species contained a LOL gene cluster. Thus, these data support a model of evolution in which the polymorphism in loline alkaloid production phenotypes among endophyte species is likely due to the loss of the trait over time.

  6. Sex differences in cognitive ageing: testing predictions derived from life-history theory in a dioecious nematode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwoinska, Martyna K; Kolm, Niclas; Maklakov, Alexei A

    2013-12-01

    Life-history theory maintains that organisms allocate limited resources to different traits to maximize fitness. Learning ability and memory are costly and known to trade-off with longevity in invertebrates. However, since the relationship between longevity and fitness often differs between the sexes, it is likely that sexes will differentially resolve the trade-off between learning and longevity. We used an established associative learning paradigm in the dioecious nematode Caenorhabditis remanei, which is sexually dimorphic for lifespan, to study age-related learning ability in males and females. In particular, we tested the hypothesis that females (the shorter-lived sex) show higher learning ability than males early in life but senesce faster. Indeed, young females outperformed young males in learning a novel association between an odour (butanone) and food (bacteria). However, while learning ability and offspring production declined rapidly with age in females, males maintained high levels of these traits until mid-age. These results not only demonstrate sexual dimorphism in age-related learning ability but also suggest that it conforms to predictions derived from the life-history theory. © 2013.

  7. Efficient and accurate two-scale FE-FFT-based prediction of the effective material behavior of elasto-viscoplastic polycrystals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kochmann, Julian; Wulfinghoff, Stephan; Ehle, Lisa; Mayer, Joachim; Svendsen, Bob; Reese, Stefanie

    2017-09-01

    Recently, two-scale FE-FFT-based methods (e.g., Spahn et al. in Comput Methods Appl Mech Eng 268:871-883, 2014; Kochmann et al. in Comput Methods Appl Mech Eng 305:89-110, 2016) have been proposed to predict the microscopic and overall mechanical behavior of heterogeneous materials. The purpose of this work is the extension to elasto-viscoplastic polycrystals, efficient and robust Fourier solvers and the prediction of micromechanical fields during macroscopic deformation processes. Assuming scale separation, the macroscopic problem is solved using the finite element method. The solution of the microscopic problem, which is embedded as a periodic unit cell (UC) in each macroscopic integration point, is found by employing fast Fourier transforms, fixed-point and Newton-Krylov methods. The overall material behavior is defined by the mean UC response. In order to ensure spatially converged micromechanical fields as well as feasible overall CPU times, an efficient but simple solution strategy for two-scale simulations is proposed. As an example, the constitutive behavior of 42CrMo4 steel is predicted during macroscopic three-point bending tests.

  8. PredPPCrys: accurate prediction of sequence cloning, protein production, purification and crystallization propensity from protein sequences using multi-step heterogeneous feature fusion and selection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huilin Wang

    Full Text Available X-ray crystallography is the primary approach to solve the three-dimensional structure of a protein. However, a major bottleneck of this method is the failure of multi-step experimental procedures to yield diffraction-quality crystals, including sequence cloning, protein material production, purification, crystallization and ultimately, structural determination. Accordingly, prediction of the propensity of a protein to successfully undergo these experimental procedures based on the protein sequence may help narrow down laborious experimental efforts and facilitate target selection. A number of bioinformatics methods based on protein sequence information have been developed for this purpose. However, our knowledge on the important determinants of propensity for a protein sequence to produce high diffraction-quality crystals remains largely incomplete. In practice, most of the existing methods display poorer performance when evaluated on larger and updated datasets. To address this problem, we constructed an up-to-date dataset as the benchmark, and subsequently developed a new approach termed 'PredPPCrys' using the support vector machine (SVM. Using a comprehensive set of multifaceted sequence-derived features in combination with a novel multi-step feature selection strategy, we identified and characterized the relative importance and contribution of each feature type to the prediction performance of five individual experimental steps required for successful crystallization. The resulting optimal candidate features were used as inputs to build the first-level SVM predictor (PredPPCrys I. Next, prediction outputs of PredPPCrys I were used as the input to build second-level SVM classifiers (PredPPCrys II, which led to significantly enhanced prediction performance. Benchmarking experiments indicated that our PredPPCrys method outperforms most existing procedures on both up-to-date and previous datasets. In addition, the predicted crystallization

  9. Normal Tissue Complication Probability Estimation by the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman Method Does Not Accurately Predict Spinal Cord Tolerance to Stereotactic Radiosurgery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daly, Megan E.; Luxton, Gary; Choi, Clara Y.H.; Gibbs, Iris C.; Chang, Steven D.; Adler, John R.; Soltys, Scott G.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To determine whether normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) analyses of the human spinal cord by use of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model, supplemented by linear–quadratic modeling to account for the effect of fractionation, predict the risk of myelopathy from stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Methods and Materials: From November 2001 to July 2008, 24 spinal hemangioblastomas in 17 patients were treated with SRS. Of the tumors, 17 received 1 fraction with a median dose of 20 Gy (range, 18–30 Gy) and 7 received 20 to 25 Gy in 2 or 3 sessions, with cord maximum doses of 22.7 Gy (range, 17.8–30.9 Gy) and 22.0 Gy (range, 20.2–26.6 Gy), respectively. By use of conventional values for α/β, volume parameter n, 50% complication probability dose TD 50 , and inverse slope parameter m, a computationally simplified implementation of the LKB model was used to calculate the biologically equivalent uniform dose and NTCP for each treatment. Exploratory calculations were performed with alternate values of α/β and n. Results: In this study 1 case (4%) of myelopathy occurred. The LKB model using radiobiological parameters from Emami and the logistic model with parameters from Schultheiss overestimated complication rates, predicting 13 complications (54%) and 18 complications (75%), respectively. An increase in the volume parameter (n), to assume greater parallel organization, improved the predictive value of the models. Maximum-likelihood LKB fitting of α/β and n yielded better predictions (0.7 complications), with n = 0.023 and α/β = 17.8 Gy. Conclusions: The spinal cord tolerance to the dosimetry of SRS is higher than predicted by the LKB model using any set of accepted parameters. Only a high α/β value in the LKB model and only a large volume effect in the logistic model with Schultheiss data could explain the low number of complications observed. This finding emphasizes that radiobiological models traditionally used to estimate spinal cord NTCP

  10. A random forest based risk model for reliable and accurate prediction of receipt of transfusion in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hitinder S Gurm

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Transfusion is a common complication of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI and is associated with adverse short and long term outcomes. There is no risk model for identifying patients most likely to receive transfusion after PCI. The objective of our study was to develop and validate a tool for predicting receipt of blood transfusion in patients undergoing contemporary PCI. METHODS: Random forest models were developed utilizing 45 pre-procedural clinical and laboratory variables to estimate the receipt of transfusion in patients undergoing PCI. The most influential variables were selected for inclusion in an abbreviated model. Model performance estimating transfusion was evaluated in an independent validation dataset using area under the ROC curve (AUC, with net reclassification improvement (NRI used to compare full and reduced model prediction after grouping in low, intermediate, and high risk categories. The impact of procedural anticoagulation on observed versus predicted transfusion rates were assessed for the different risk categories. RESULTS: Our study cohort was comprised of 103,294 PCI procedures performed at 46 hospitals between July 2009 through December 2012 in Michigan of which 72,328 (70% were randomly selected for training the models, and 30,966 (30% for validation. The models demonstrated excellent calibration and discrimination (AUC: full model  = 0.888 (95% CI 0.877-0.899, reduced model AUC = 0.880 (95% CI, 0.868-0.892, p for difference 0.003, NRI = 2.77%, p = 0.007. Procedural anticoagulation and radial access significantly influenced transfusion rates in the intermediate and high risk patients but no clinically relevant impact was noted in low risk patients, who made up 70% of the total cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of transfusion among patients undergoing PCI can be reliably calculated using a novel easy to use computational tool (https://bmc2.org/calculators/transfusion. This risk prediction

  11. Benchmarking of density functionals for a soft but accurate prediction and assignment of (1) H and (13)C NMR chemical shifts in organic and biological molecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benassi, Enrico

    2017-01-15

    A number of programs and tools that simulate 1 H and 13 C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) chemical shifts using empirical approaches are available. These tools are user-friendly, but they provide a very rough (and sometimes misleading) estimation of the NMR properties, especially for complex systems. Rigorous and reliable ways to predict and interpret NMR properties of simple and complex systems are available in many popular computational program packages. Nevertheless, experimentalists keep relying on these "unreliable" tools in their daily work because, to have a sufficiently high accuracy, these rigorous quantum mechanical methods need high levels of theory. An alternative, efficient, semi-empirical approach has been proposed by Bally, Rablen, Tantillo, and coworkers. This idea consists of creating linear calibrations models, on the basis of the application of different combinations of functionals and basis sets. Following this approach, the predictive capability of a wider range of popular functionals was systematically investigated and tested. The NMR chemical shifts were computed in solvated phase at density functional theory level, using 30 different functionals coupled with three different triple-ζ basis sets. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Accurate quantum chemical calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.; Langhoff, Stephen R.; Taylor, Peter R.

    1989-01-01

    An important goal of quantum chemical calculations is to provide an understanding of chemical bonding and molecular electronic structure. A second goal, the prediction of energy differences to chemical accuracy, has been much harder to attain. First, the computational resources required to achieve such accuracy are very large, and second, it is not straightforward to demonstrate that an apparently accurate result, in terms of agreement with experiment, does not result from a cancellation of errors. Recent advances in electronic structure methodology, coupled with the power of vector supercomputers, have made it possible to solve a number of electronic structure problems exactly using the full configuration interaction (FCI) method within a subspace of the complete Hilbert space. These exact results can be used to benchmark approximate techniques that are applicable to a wider range of chemical and physical problems. The methodology of many-electron quantum chemistry is reviewed. Methods are considered in detail for performing FCI calculations. The application of FCI methods to several three-electron problems in molecular physics are discussed. A number of benchmark applications of FCI wave functions are described. Atomic basis sets and the development of improved methods for handling very large basis sets are discussed: these are then applied to a number of chemical and spectroscopic problems; to transition metals; and to problems involving potential energy surfaces. Although the experiences described give considerable grounds for optimism about the general ability to perform accurate calculations, there are several problems that have proved less tractable, at least with current computer resources, and these and possible solutions are discussed.

  13. Stress-Induced Impairment of a Working Memory Task: Role of Spiking Rate and Spiking History Predicted Discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devilbiss, David M.; Jenison, Rick L.; Berridge, Craig W.

    2012-01-01

    Stress, pervasive in society, contributes to over half of all work place accidents a year and over time can contribute to a variety of psychiatric disorders including depression, schizophrenia, and post-traumatic stress disorder. Stress impairs higher cognitive processes, dependent on the prefrontal cortex (PFC) and that involve maintenance and integration of information over extended periods, including working memory and attention. Substantial evidence has demonstrated a relationship between patterns of PFC neuron spiking activity (action-potential discharge) and components of delayed-response tasks used to probe PFC-dependent cognitive function in rats and monkeys. During delay periods of these tasks, persistent spiking activity is posited to be essential for the maintenance of information for working memory and attention. However, the degree to which stress-induced impairment in PFC-dependent cognition involves changes in task-related spiking rates or the ability for PFC neurons to retain information over time remains unknown. In the current study, spiking activity was recorded from the medial PFC of rats performing a delayed-response task of working memory during acute noise stress (93 db). Spike history-predicted discharge (SHPD) for PFC neurons was quantified as a measure of the degree to which ongoing neuronal discharge can be predicted by past spiking activity and reflects the degree to which past information is retained by these neurons over time. We found that PFC neuron discharge is predicted by their past spiking patterns for nearly one second. Acute stress impaired SHPD, selectively during delay intervals of the task, and simultaneously impaired task performance. Despite the reduction in delay-related SHPD, stress increased delay-related spiking rates. These findings suggest that neural codes utilizing SHPD within PFC networks likely reflects an additional important neurophysiological mechanism for maintenance of past information over time. Stress

  14. Alcohol levels do not accurately predict physical or mental impairment in ethanol-tolerant subjects: relevance to emergency medicine and dram shop laws.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, James R; Dollard, Denis

    2010-12-01

    The human body and the central nervous system can develop tremendous tolerance to ethanol. Mental and physical dysfunctions from ethanol, in an alcohol-tolerant individual, do not consistently correlate with ethanol levels traditionally used to define intoxication, or even lethality, in a nontolerant subject. Attempting to relate observed signs of alcohol intoxication or impairment, or to evaluate sobriety, by quantifying blood alcohol levels can be misleading, if not impossible. We report a case demonstrating the disconnect between alcohol levels and generally assigned parameters of intoxication and impairment. In this case, an alcohol-tolerant man, with a serum ethanol level of 515 mg/dl, appeared neurologically intact and cognitively normal. This individual was without objective signs of impairment or intoxication by repeated evaluations by experienced emergency physicians. In alcohol-tolerant individuals, blood alcohol levels cannot always be predicted by and do not necessarily correlate with outward appearance, overt signs of intoxication, or physical examination. This phenomenon must be acknowledged when analyzing medical decision making in the emergency department or when evaluating the ability of bartenders and party hosts to identify intoxication in dram shop cases.

  15. N0/N1, PNL, or LNR? The effect of lymph node number on accurate survival prediction in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valsangkar, Nakul P; Bush, Devon M; Michaelson, James S; Ferrone, Cristina R; Wargo, Jennifer A; Lillemoe, Keith D; Fernández-del Castillo, Carlos; Warshaw, Andrew L; Thayer, Sarah P

    2013-02-01

    We evaluated the prognostic accuracy of LN variables (N0/N1), numbers of positive lymph nodes (PLN), and lymph node ratio (LNR) in the context of the total number of examined lymph nodes (ELN). Patients from SEER and a single institution (MGH) were reviewed and survival analyses performed in subgroups based on numbers of ELN to calculate excess risk of death (hazard ratio, HR). In SEER and MGH, higher numbers of ELN improved the overall survival for N0 patients. The prognostic significance (N0/N1) and PLN were too variable as the importance of a single PLN depended on the total number of LN dissected. LNR consistently correlated with survival once a certain number of lymph nodes were dissected (≥13 in SEER and ≥17 in the MGH dataset). Better survival for N0 patients with increasing ELN likely represents improved staging. PLN have some predictive value but the ELN strongly influence their impact on survival, suggesting the need for a ratio-based classification. LNR strongly correlates with outcome provided that a certain number of lymph nodes is evaluated, suggesting that the prognostic accuracy of any LN variable depends on the total number of ELN.

  16. Accurate predictions of spectroscopic and molecular properties of 27 Λ-S and 73 Ω states of AsS radical

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Deheng; Song, Ziyue; Niu, Xianghong; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

    2016-01-01

    The PECs are calculated for the 27 Λ-S states and their corresponding 73 Ω states of AsS radical. Of these Λ-S states, only the 22Δ and 54Π states are replulsive. The 12Σ+, 22Σ+, 42Π, 34Δ, 34Σ+, and 44Π states possess double wells. The 32Σ+ state possesses three wells. The A2Π, 32Π, 12Φ, 24Π, 34Π, 24Δ, 34Δ, 16Σ+, and 16Π states are inverted with the SO coupling effect included. The 14Σ+, 24Σ+, 24Σ-, 24Δ, 14Φ, 16Σ+, and 16Π states, the second wells of 12Σ+, 34Σ+, 42Π, 44Π, and 34Δ states, and the third well of 32Σ+ state are very weakly-bound states. The PECs are extrapolated to the CBS limit. The effect of SO coupling on the PECs is discussed. The spectroscopic parameters are evaluated, and compared with available measurements and other theoretical ones. The vibrational properties of several weakly-bound states are determined. The spectroscopic properties reported here can be expected to be reliably predicted ones.

  17. Accurate predictions of spectroscopic and molecular properties of 27 Λ-S and 73 Ω states of AsS radical.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Deheng; Song, Ziyue; Niu, Xianghong; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

    2016-01-15

    The PECs are calculated for the 27 Λ-S states and their corresponding 73 Ω states of AsS radical. Of these Λ-S states, only the 2(2)Δ and 5(4)Π states are replulsive. The 1(2)Σ(+), 2(2)Σ(+), 4(2)Π, 3(4)Δ, 3(4)Σ(+), and 4(4)Π states possess double wells. The 3(2)Σ(+) state possesses three wells. The A(2)Π, 3(2)Π, 1(2)Φ, 2(4)Π, 3(4)Π, 2(4)Δ, 3(4)Δ, 1(6)Σ(+), and 1(6)Π states are inverted with the SO coupling effect included. The 1(4)Σ(+), 2(4)Σ(+), 2(4)Σ(-), 2(4)Δ, 1(4)Φ, 1(6)Σ(+), and 1(6)Π states, the second wells of 1(2)Σ(+), 3(4)Σ(+), 4(2)Π, 4(4)Π, and 3(4)Δ states, and the third well of 3(2)Σ(+) state are very weakly-bound states. The PECs are extrapolated to the CBS limit. The effect of SO coupling on the PECs is discussed. The spectroscopic parameters are evaluated, and compared with available measurements and other theoretical ones. The vibrational properties of several weakly-bound states are determined. The spectroscopic properties reported here can be expected to be reliably predicted ones. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. The M. D. Anderson Symptom Inventory-Head and Neck Module, a Patient-Reported Outcome Instrument, Accurately Predicts the Severity of Radiation-Induced Mucositis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenthal, David I.; Mendoza, Tito R.; Chambers, Mark; Burkett, V. Shannon; Garden, Adam S.; Hessell, Amy C.; Lewin, Jan S.; Ang, K. Kian; Kies, Merrill S.; Gning, Ibrahima; Wang, Xin S.; Cleeland, Charles S.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: To compare the M. D. Anderson Symptom Inventory-Head and Neck (MDASI-HN) module, a symptom burden instrument, with the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Head and Neck (FACT-HN) module, a quality-of-life instrument, for the assessment of mucositis in patients with head-and-neck cancer treated with radiotherapy and to identify the most distressing symptoms from the patient's perspective. Methods and Materials: Consecutive patients with head-and-neck cancer (n = 134) completed the MDASI-HN and FACT-HN before radiotherapy (time 1) and after 6 weeks of radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy (time 2). The mean global and subscale scores for each instrument were compared with the objective mucositis scores determined from the National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3.0. Results: The global and subscale scores for each instrument showed highly significant changes from time 1 to time 2 and a significant correlation with the objective mucositis scores at time 2. Only the MDASI scores, however, were significant predictors of objective Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events mucositis scores on multivariate regression analysis (standardized regression coefficient, 0.355 for the global score and 0.310 for the head-and-neck cancer-specific score). Most of the moderate and severe symptoms associated with mucositis as identified on the MDASI-HN are not present on the FACT-HN. Conclusion: Both the MDASI-HN and FACT-HN modules can predict the mucositis scores. However, the MDASI-HN, a symptom burden instrument, was more closely associated with the severity of radiation-induced mucositis than the FACT-HN on multivariate regression analysis. This greater association was most likely related to the inclusion of a greater number of face-valid mucositis-related items in the MDASI-HN compared with the FACT-HN

  19. Prediction of broadband ground-motion time histories: Hybrid low/high-frequency method with correlated random source parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, P.; Archuleta, R.J.; Hartzell, S.H.

    2006-01-01

    We present a new method for calculating broadband time histories of ground motion based on a hybrid low-frequency/high-frequency approach with correlated source parameters. Using a finite-difference method we calculate low- frequency synthetics (structure. We also compute broadband synthetics in a 1D velocity model using a frequency-wavenumber method. The low frequencies from the 3D calculation are combined with the high frequencies from the 1D calculation by using matched filtering at a crossover frequency of 1 Hz. The source description, common to both the 1D and 3D synthetics, is based on correlated random distributions for the slip amplitude, rupture velocity, and rise time on the fault. This source description allows for the specification of source parameters independent of any a priori inversion results. In our broadband modeling we include correlation between slip amplitude, rupture velocity, and rise time, as suggested by dynamic fault modeling. The method of using correlated random source parameters is flexible and can be easily modified to adjust to our changing understanding of earthquake ruptures. A realistic attenuation model is common to both the 3D and 1D calculations that form the low- and high-frequency components of the broadband synthetics. The value of Q is a function of the local shear-wave velocity. To produce more accurate high-frequency amplitudes and durations, the 1D synthetics are corrected with a randomized, frequency-dependent radiation pattern. The 1D synthetics are further corrected for local site and nonlinear soil effects by using a 1D nonlinear propagation code and generic velocity structure appropriate for the site’s National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site classification. The entire procedure is validated by comparison with the 1994 Northridge, California, strong ground motion data set. The bias and error found here for response spectral acceleration are similar to the best results that have been published by

  20. Family history of education predicts eating disorders across multiple generations among 2 million Swedish males and females.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Goodman

    Full Text Available To investigate which facets of parent and grandparent socio-economic position (SEP are associated with eating disorders (ED, and how this varies by ED subtype and over time.Total-population cohort study of 1,040,165 females and 1,098,188 males born 1973-1998 in Sweden, and followed for inpatient or outpatient ED diagnoses until 2010. Proportional hazards models estimated associations with parental education, income and social class, and with grandparental education and income.15,747 females and 1051 males in our sample received an ED diagnosis, with rates increasing in both sexes over time. ED incidence in females was independently predicted by greater educational level among the father, mother and maternal grandparents, but parent social class and parental income showed little or no independent effect. The associations with education were equally strong for anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa and ED not-otherwise-specified, and had increased over time. Among males, an apparently similar pattern was seen with respect to anorexia nervosa, but non-anorexia ED showed no association with parental education and an inverse association with parental income.Family history of education predicts ED in gender- and disorder-specific ways, and in females the effect is observed across multiple generations. Particularly given that these effects may have grown stronger in more recent cohorts, these findings highlight the need for further research to clarify the underlying mechanisms and identify promising targets for prevention. Speculatively, one such mechanism may involve greater internal and external demands for academic success in highly educated families.

  1. Family history of education predicts eating disorders across multiple generations among 2 million Swedish males and females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Anna; Heshmati, Amy; Koupil, Ilona

    2014-01-01

    To investigate which facets of parent and grandparent socio-economic position (SEP) are associated with eating disorders (ED), and how this varies by ED subtype and over time. Total-population cohort study of 1,040,165 females and 1,098,188 males born 1973-1998 in Sweden, and followed for inpatient or outpatient ED diagnoses until 2010. Proportional hazards models estimated associations with parental education, income and social class, and with grandparental education and income. 15,747 females and 1051 males in our sample received an ED diagnosis, with rates increasing in both sexes over time. ED incidence in females was independently predicted by greater educational level among the father, mother and maternal grandparents, but parent social class and parental income showed little or no independent effect. The associations with education were equally strong for anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa and ED not-otherwise-specified, and had increased over time. Among males, an apparently similar pattern was seen with respect to anorexia nervosa, but non-anorexia ED showed no association with parental education and an inverse association with parental income. Family history of education predicts ED in gender- and disorder-specific ways, and in females the effect is observed across multiple generations. Particularly given that these effects may have grown stronger in more recent cohorts, these findings highlight the need for further research to clarify the underlying mechanisms and identify promising targets for prevention. Speculatively, one such mechanism may involve greater internal and external demands for academic success in highly educated families.

  2. Incorporating Ninth-Grade PSAT/NMSQT® Scores into AP Potential™ Predictions for AP® European History and AP World History. Statistical Report 2014-1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiuyuan; Patel, Priyank; Ewing, Maureen

    2015-01-01

    Historically, AP Potential™ correlations and expectancy tables have been based on 10th-and 11th-grade PSAT/NMSQT® examinees and 11th-and 12th-grade AP® examinees for all subjects (Zhang, Patel, & Ewing,2014; Ewing, Camara, & Millsap, 2006; Camara & Millsap, 1998). However, a large number of students take AP European History and AP…

  3. Monitoring and predicting the risk of violence in residential facilities. No difference between patients with history or with no history of violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Girolamo, Giovanni; Buizza, Chiara; Sisti, Davide; Ferrari, Clarissa; Bulgari, Viola; Iozzino, Laura; Boero, Maria Elena; Cristiano, Giuseppe; De Francesco, Alessandra; Giobbio, Gian Marco; Maggi, Paolo; Rossi, Giuseppe; Segalini, Beatrice; Candini, Valentina

    2016-09-01

    Most people with mental disorders are not violent. However, the lack of specific studies in this area and recent radical changes in Italy, including the closure of six Forensic Mental Hospitals, has prompted a more detailed investigation of patients with aggressive behaviour. To compare socio-demographic, clinical and treatment-related characteristics of long-term inpatients with a lifetime history of serious violence with controls; to identify predictors of verbal and physical aggressive behaviour during 1-year follow-up. In a prospective cohort study, patients living in Residential Facilities (RFs) with a lifetime history of serious violence were assessed with a large set of standardized instruments and compared to patients with no violent history. Patients were evaluated bi-monthly with MOAS in order to monitor any aggressive behaviour. The sample included 139 inpatients, 82 violent and 57 control subjects; most patients were male. The bi-monthly monitoring during the 1-year follow-up did not show any statistically significant differences in aggressive behaviour rates between the two groups. The subscale explaining most of the MOAS total score was aggression against objects, although verbal aggression was the most common pattern. Furthermore, verbal aggression was significantly associated with aggression against objects and physical aggression. Patients with a history of violence in RFs, where treatment and clinical supervision are available, do not show higher rates of aggressiveness compared to patients with no lifetime history of violence. Since verbal aggression is associated with more severe forms of aggression, prompt intervention is warranted to reduce the risk of escalation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Living Slow and Being Moral : Life History Predicts the Dual Process of Other-Centered Reasoning and Judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Nan; Hawk, Skyler T; Chang, Lei

    2018-06-01

    Drawing from the dual process model of morality and life history theory, the present research examined the role of cognitive and emotional processes as bridges between basic environmental challenges (i.e., unpredictability and competition) and other-centered moral orientation (i.e., prioritizing the welfare of others). In two survey studies, cognitive and emotional processes represented by future-oriented planning and emotional attachment, respectively (Study 1, N = 405), or by perspective taking and empathic concern, respectively (Study 2, N = 424), positively predicted other-centeredness in prosocial moral reasoning (Study 1) and moral judgment dilemmas based on rationality or intuition (Study 2). Cognitive processes were more closely related to rational aspects of other-centeredness, whereas the emotional processes were more closely related to the intuitive aspects of other-centeredness (Study 2). Finally, the cognitive and emotional processes also mediated negative effects of unpredictability (i.e., negative life events and childhood financial insecurity), as well as positive effects of individual-level, contest competition (i.e., educational and occupational competition) on other-centeredness. Overall, these findings support the view that cognitive and emotional processes do not necessarily contradict each other. Rather, they might work in concert to promote other-centeredness in various circumstances and might be attributed to humans' developmental flexibility in the face of environmental challenges.

  5. Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A; Xu, Jing

    2015-01-01

    National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens' attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism), but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth--two key variables for climato-economic theory--predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks). Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history) significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories.

  6. Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinguang Zhang

    Full Text Available National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens' attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism, but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth--two key variables for climato-economic theory--predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks. Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories.

  7. Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A.; Xu, Jing

    2015-01-01

    National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens’ attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism), but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth—two key variables for climato-economic theory—predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks). Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history) significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories. PMID:26030736

  8. Can Selforganizing Maps Accurately Predict Photometric Redshifts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Way, Michael J.; Klose, Christian

    2012-01-01

    We present an unsupervised machine-learning approach that can be employed for estimating photometric redshifts. The proposed method is based on a vector quantization called the self-organizing-map (SOM) approach. A variety of photometrically derived input values were utilized from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey's main galaxy sample, luminous red galaxy, and quasar samples, along with the PHAT0 data set from the Photo-z Accuracy Testing project. Regression results obtained with this new approach were evaluated in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE) to estimate the accuracy of the photometric redshift estimates. The results demonstrate competitive RMSE and outlier percentages when compared with several other popular approaches, such as artificial neural networks and Gaussian process regression. SOM RMSE results (using delta(z) = z(sub phot) - z(sub spec)) are 0.023 for the main galaxy sample, 0.027 for the luminous red galaxy sample, 0.418 for quasars, and 0.022 for PHAT0 synthetic data. The results demonstrate that there are nonunique solutions for estimating SOM RMSEs. Further research is needed in order to find more robust estimation techniques using SOMs, but the results herein are a positive indication of their capabilities when compared with other well-known methods

  9. The Relative Importance of Family History, Gender, Mode of Onset, and Age at Onsetin Predicting Clinical Features of First-Episode Psychotic Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compton, Michael T; Berez, Chantal; Walker, Elaine F

    Family history of psychosis, gender, mode of onset, and age at onset are considered prognostic factors important to clinicians evaluating first-episode psychosis; yet, clinicians have little guidance as to how these four factors differentially predict early-course substance abuse, symptomatology, and functioning. We conducted a "head-to-head comparison" of these four factors regarding their associations with key clinical features at initial hospitalization. We also assessed potential interactions between gender and family history with regard to age at onset of psychosis and symptom severity. Consecutively admitted first-episode patients (n=334) were evaluated in two studies that rigorously assessed a number of early-course variables. Associations among variables of interest were examined using Pearson correlations, χ 2 tests, Student's t-tests, and 2×2 factorial analyses of variance. Substance (nicotine, alcohol, and cannabis) abuse and positive symptom severity were predicted only by male gender. Negative symptom severity and global functioning impairments were predicted by earlier age at onset of psychosis. General psychopathology symptom severity was predicted by both mode of onset and age at onset. Interaction effects were not observed with regard to gender and family history in predicting age at onset or symptom severity. The four prognostic features have differential associations with substance abuse, domains of symptom severity, and global functioning. Gender and age at onset of psychosis appear to be more predictive of clinical features at the time of initial evaluation (and thus presumably longer term outcomes) than the presence of a family history of psychosis and a more gradual mode of onset.

  10. Ethanol Exposure History and Alcoholic Reward Differentially Alter Dopamine Release in the Nucleus Accumbens to a Reward-Predictive Cue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiorenza, Amanda M; Shnitko, Tatiana A; Sullivan, Kaitlin M; Vemuru, Sudheer R; Gomez-A, Alexander; Esaki, Julie Y; Boettiger, Charlotte A; Da Cunha, Claudio; Robinson, Donita L

    2018-06-01

    Conditioned stimuli (CS) that predict reward delivery acquire the ability to induce phasic dopamine release in the nucleus accumbens (NAc). This dopamine release may facilitate conditioned approach behavior, which often manifests as approach to the site of reward delivery (called "goal-tracking") or to the CS itself (called "sign-tracking"). Previous research has linked sign-tracking in particular to impulsivity and drug self-administration, and addictive drugs may promote the expression of sign-tracking. Ethanol (EtOH) acutely promotes phasic release of dopamine in the accumbens, but it is unknown whether an alcoholic reward alters dopamine release to a CS. We hypothesized that Pavlovian conditioning with an alcoholic reward would increase dopamine release triggered by the CS and subsequent sign-tracking behavior. Moreover, we predicted that chronic intermittent EtOH (CIE) exposure would promote sign-tracking while acute administration of naltrexone (NTX) would reduce it. Rats received 14 doses of EtOH (3 to 5 g/kg, intragastric) or water followed by 6 days of Pavlovian conditioning training. Rewards were a chocolate solution with or without 10% (w/v) alcohol. We used fast-scan cyclic voltammetry to measure phasic dopamine release in the NAc core in response to the CS and the rewards. We also determined the effect of NTX (1 mg/kg, subcutaneous) on conditioned approach. Both CIE and alcoholic reward, individually but not together, associated with greater dopamine to the CS than control conditions. However, this increase in dopamine release was not linked to greater sign-tracking, as both CIE and alcoholic reward shifted conditioned approach from sign-tracking behavior to goal-tracking behavior. However, they both also increased sensitivity to NTX, which reduced goal-tracking behavior. While a history of EtOH exposure or alcoholic reward enhanced dopamine release to a CS, they did not promote sign-tracking under the current conditions. These findings are

  11. Toward a Predictive Framework for Convergent Evolution: Integrating Natural History, Genetic Mechanisms, and Consequences for the Diversity of Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, Anurag A

    2017-08-01

    A charm of biology as a scientific discipline is the diversity of life. Although this diversity can make laws of biology challenging to discover, several repeated patterns and general principles govern evolutionary diversification. Convergent evolution, the independent evolution of similar phenotypes, has been at the heart of one approach to understand generality in the evolutionary process. Yet understanding when and why organismal traits and strategies repeatedly evolve has been a central challenge. These issues were the focus of the American Society of Naturalists Vice Presidential Symposium in 2016 and are the subject of this collection of articles. Although naturalists have long made inferences about convergent evolution and its importance, there has been confusion in the interpretation of the pattern of convergence. Does convergence primarily indicate adaptation or constraint? How often should convergence be expected? Are there general principles that would allow us to predict where and when and by what mechanisms convergent evolution should occur? What role does natural history play in advancing our understanding of general evolutionary principles? In this introductory article, I address these questions, review several generalizations about convergent evolution that have emerged over the past 15 years, and present a framework for advancing the study and interpretation of convergence. Perhaps the most important emerging conclusion is that the genetic mechanisms of convergent evolution are phylogenetically conserved; that is, more closely related species tend to share the same genetic basis of traits, even when independently evolved. Finally, I highlight how the articles in this special issue further develop concepts, methodologies, and case studies at the frontier of our understanding of the causes and consequences of convergent evolution.

  12. Statistical analysis of accurate prediction of local atmospheric optical attenuation with a new model according to weather together with beam wandering compensation system: a season-wise experimental investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arockia Bazil Raj, A.; Padmavathi, S.

    2016-07-01

    Atmospheric parameters strongly affect the performance of Free Space Optical Communication (FSOC) system when the optical wave is propagating through the inhomogeneous turbulent medium. Developing a model to get an accurate prediction of optical attenuation according to meteorological parameters becomes significant to understand the behaviour of FSOC channel during different seasons. A dedicated free space optical link experimental set-up is developed for the range of 0.5 km at an altitude of 15.25 m. The diurnal profile of received power and corresponding meteorological parameters are continuously measured using the developed optoelectronic assembly and weather station, respectively, and stored in a data logging computer. Measured meteorological parameters (as input factors) and optical attenuation (as response factor) of size [177147 × 4] are used for linear regression analysis and to design the mathematical model that is more suitable to predict the atmospheric optical attenuation at our test field. A model that exhibits the R2 value of 98.76% and average percentage deviation of 1.59% is considered for practical implementation. The prediction accuracy of the proposed model is investigated along with the comparative results obtained from some of the existing models in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) during different local seasons in one-year period. The average RMSE value of 0.043-dB/km is obtained in the longer range dynamic of meteorological parameters variations.

  13. Seascape and life-history traits do not predict self-recruitment in a coral reef fish

    KAUST Repository

    Herrera Sarrias, Marcela; Nanninga, Gerrit B.; Planes, Serge; Jones, Geoffrey P.; Thorrold, Simon R.; Saenz Agudelo, Pablo; Almany, Glenn R.; Berumen, Michael L.

    2016-01-01

    pairs were sampled from separate reefs. Integrating our findings with earlier research from the same system suggests that geographical setting and life-history traits alone are not suitable predictors of SR and that high levels of localized recruitment

  14. Family history of suicide and exposure to interpersonal violence in childhood predict suicide in male suicide attempters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajalin, Mia; Hirvikoski, Tatja; Jokinen, Jussi

    2013-05-15

    Family studies, including twin and adoption designs, have shown familial transmission of suicidal behaviors. Early environmental risk factors have an important role in the etiology of suicidal behavior. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of family history of suicide and childhood trauma on suicide risk and on severity of suicide attempt in suicide attempters. A total of 181 suicide attempters were included. Family history of suicide was assessed with the Karolinska Suicide History Interview or through patient records. Childhood trauma was assessed with the Karolinska Interpersonal Violence Scale (KIVS) measuring exposure to violence and expressed violent behavior in childhood (between 6 and 14 years of age) and during adult life (15 years or older). Suicide intent was measured with the Freeman scale. Male suicide attempters with a positive family history of suicide made more serious and well planned suicide attempts and had a significantly higher suicide risk. In logistic regression, family history of suicide and exposure to interpersonal violence as a child were independent predictors of suicide in male suicide attempters. The information about family history of suicide and exposure to interpersonal violence as a child derives from the patients only. In the first part of the inclusion period the information was collected from patient records. The results of this study imply that suicides among those at biological risk might be prevented with the early recognition of environmental risks. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Spectrally accurate contour dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Buskirk, R.D.; Marcus, P.S.

    1994-01-01

    We present an exponentially accurate boundary integral method for calculation the equilibria and dynamics of piece-wise constant distributions of potential vorticity. The method represents contours of potential vorticity as a spectral sum and solves the Biot-Savart equation for the velocity by spectrally evaluating a desingularized contour integral. We use the technique in both an initial-value code and a newton continuation method. Our methods are tested by comparing the numerical solutions with known analytic results, and it is shown that for the same amount of computational work our spectral methods are more accurate than other contour dynamics methods currently in use

  16. Predicting Attrition, Performance, Reenlistment, and Hospitalizations from the Smoking History of Women Prior to Entering the Navy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Conway, Terry L

    2006-01-01

    This study of women sailors examined whether tobacco use prior to entering the Navy predicted subsequent career outcomes related to length of service, early attrition, misconduct, and hospitalizations...

  17. Predicting Adolescents' Organized Activity Involvement: The Role of Maternal Depression History, Family Relationship Quality, and Adolescent Cognitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohnert, Amy M.; Martin, Nina C.; Garber, Judy

    2007-01-01

    Although the potential benefits of organized activity involvement during high school have been documented, little is known about what familial and individual characteristics are associated with higher levels of participation. Using structural equation modeling, this longitudinal study examined the extent to which maternal depression history (i.e.,…

  18. Long-Term Deflection Prediction from Computer Vision-Measured Data History for High-Speed Railway Bridges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaebeom Lee

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Management of the vertical long-term deflection of a high-speed railway bridge is a crucial factor to guarantee traffic safety and passenger comfort. Therefore, there have been efforts to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on physics-based models representing various influential factors to vertical deflection such as concrete creep and shrinkage. However, it is not an easy task because the vertical deflection of a railway bridge generally involves several sources of uncertainty. This paper proposes a probabilistic method that employs a Gaussian process to construct a model to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on actual vision-based measurement and temperature. To deal with the sources of uncertainty which may cause prediction errors, a Gaussian process is modeled with multiple kernels and hyperparameters. Once the hyperparameters are identified through the Gaussian process regression using training data, the proposed method provides a 95% prediction interval as well as a predictive mean about the vertical deflection of the bridge. The proposed method is applied to an arch bridge under operation for high-speed trains in South Korea. The analysis results obtained from the proposed method show good agreement with the actual measurement data on the vertical deflection of the example bridge, and the prediction results can be utilized for decision-making on railway bridge maintenance.

  19. Long-Term Deflection Prediction from Computer Vision-Measured Data History for High-Speed Railway Bridges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jaebeom; Lee, Kyoung-Chan; Lee, Young-Joo

    2018-05-09

    Management of the vertical long-term deflection of a high-speed railway bridge is a crucial factor to guarantee traffic safety and passenger comfort. Therefore, there have been efforts to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on physics-based models representing various influential factors to vertical deflection such as concrete creep and shrinkage. However, it is not an easy task because the vertical deflection of a railway bridge generally involves several sources of uncertainty. This paper proposes a probabilistic method that employs a Gaussian process to construct a model to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on actual vision-based measurement and temperature. To deal with the sources of uncertainty which may cause prediction errors, a Gaussian process is modeled with multiple kernels and hyperparameters. Once the hyperparameters are identified through the Gaussian process regression using training data, the proposed method provides a 95% prediction interval as well as a predictive mean about the vertical deflection of the bridge. The proposed method is applied to an arch bridge under operation for high-speed trains in South Korea. The analysis results obtained from the proposed method show good agreement with the actual measurement data on the vertical deflection of the example bridge, and the prediction results can be utilized for decision-making on railway bridge maintenance.

  20. Cosmic growth history and expansion history

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linder, Eric V.

    2005-01-01

    The cosmic expansion history tests the dynamics of the global evolution of the universe and its energy density contents, while the cosmic growth history tests the evolution of the inhomogeneous part of the energy density. Precision comparison of the two histories can distinguish the nature of the physics responsible for the accelerating cosmic expansion: an additional smooth component--dark energy--or a modification of the gravitational field equations. With the aid of a new fitting formula for linear perturbation growth accurate to 0.05%-0.2%, we separate out the growth dependence on the expansion history and introduce a new growth index parameter γ that quantifies the gravitational modification

  1. Estimating the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus : a clinical prediction model based on patient characteristics and medical history

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leeuwen, M.; Opmeer, B. C.; Zweers, E. J. K.; van Ballegooie, E.; ter Brugge, H. G.; de Valk, H. W.; Visser, G. H. A.; Mol, B. W. J.

    Objective To develop a clinical prediction rule that can help the clinician to identify women at high and low risk for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) early in pregnancy in order to improve the efficiency of GDM screening. Design We used data from a prospective cohort study to develop the

  2. A Comprehensive Comparison of the Analytical and Numerical Prediction of the Thermal History and Solidification Microstructure of Inconel 718 Products Made by Laser Powder-Bed Fusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patcharapit Promoppatum

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The finite-element (FE model and the Rosenthal equation are used to study the thermal and microstructural phenomena in the laser powder-bed fusion of Inconel 718. A primary aim is to comprehend the advantages and disadvantages of the Rosenthal equation (which provides an analytical alternative to FE analysis, and to investigate the influence of underlying assumptions on estimated results. Various physical characteristics are compared among the FE model, Rosenthal equation, and experiments. The predicted melt pool shapes compared with reported experimental results from the literature show that both the FE model and the analytical (Rosenthal equation provide a reasonably accurate estimation. At high heat input, under conditions leading to keyholing, the reported melt width is narrower than predicted by the analytical equation. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis based on choices of the absorptivity is performed, which shows that the Rosenthal approach is more sensitive to absorptivity, compared with the FE approach. The primary reason could be the effect of radiative and convective losses, which are assumed to be negligible in the Rosenthal equation. In addition, both methods predict a columnar solidification microstructure, which agrees well with experimental reports, and the primary dendrite arm spacing (PDAS predicted with the two approaches is comparable with measurements.

  3. A history of wind erosion prediction models in the United States Department of Agriculture prior to the Wind Erosion Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatarko, John; Sporcic, Michael A.; Skidmore, Edward L.

    2013-09-01

    The Great Plains experienced an influx of settlers in the late 1850s-1900. Periodic drought was hard on both settlers and the soil and caused severe wind erosion. The period known as the Dirty Thirties, 1931-1939, produced many severe windstorms, and the resulting dusty sky over Washington, DC helped Hugh Hammond Bennett gain political support for the Soil Conservation Act of 1937 that started the USDA Soil Conservation Service (SCS). Austin W. Zingg and William S. Chepil began wind erosion studies at a USDA laboratory at Kansas State University in 1947. Neil P. Woodruff and Francis H. Siddoway published the first widely used model for wind erosion in 1965, called the Wind Erosion Equation (WEQ). The WEQ was solved using a series of charts and lookup tables. Subsequent improvements to WEQ included monthly magnitudes of the total wind, a computer version of WEQ programmed in FORTRAN, small-grain equivalents for range grasses, tillage systems, effects of residue management, crop row direction, cloddiness, monthly climate factors, and the weather. The SCS and the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) produced several computer versions of WEQ with the goal of standardizing and simplifying it for field personnel including a standalone version of WEQ was developed in the late 1990s using Microsoft Excel. Although WEQ was a great advancement to the science of prediction and control of wind erosion on cropland, it had many limitations that prevented its use on many lands throughout the United States and the world. In response to these limitations, the USDA developed a process-based model know as the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS). The USDA Agricultural Research Service has taken the lead in developing science and technology for wind erosion prediction.

  4. High neuroticism at age 20 predicts history of mental disorders and low self-esteem at age 35.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lönnqvist, Jan-Erik; Verkasalo, Markku; Mäkinen, Seppo; Henriksson, Markus

    2009-07-01

    The authors assessed whether neuroticism in emerging adulthood predicts mental disorders and self-esteem in early adulthood after controlling for possible confounding variables. A sample of 69 male military conscripts was initially assessed at age 20 and again as civilians at age 35. The initial assessment included a psychiatric interview, objective indicators of conscript competence, an intellectual performance test, and neuroticism questionnaires. The follow-up assessment included a Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV (SCID; First, Spitzer, Gibbon, & Williams, 1996) and the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (Rosenberg, 1965). Neuroticism predicted future mental disorders and low self-esteem beyond more objective indicators of adjustment. The results support the use of neuroticism as a predictor of future mental disorders, even over periods of time when personality is subject to change.

  5. Prediction of Long-Term Outcomes in Young Adults with a History of Adolescent Alcohol-Related Hospitalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groß, Cornelius; Kraus, Ludwig; Piontek, Daniela; Reis, Olaf; Zimmermann, Ulrich S

    2016-01-01

    Empirical data concerning the long-term psychosocial development of adolescents admitted to inpatient treatment with alcohol intoxication (AIA) are lacking. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that, at the time of admission, predict future substance use, alcohol use disorders (AUD), mental health treatment, delinquency and life satisfaction. We identified 1603 cases of AIA treated between 2000 and 2007 in one of five pediatric departments in Germany. These former patients were invited to participate in a telephone interview. Medical records were retrospectively analyzed extracting potential variables predicting long-term outcomes. Interviews were conducted with 277 individuals, 5-13 [mean 8.3 (SD 2.3)] years after treatment, with a response rate of 22.7%; of these, 44.8% were female. Mean age at the interview was 24.4 (SD 2.2) years. Logistic and linear regression models revealed that being male, using illicit substances and truancy or runaway behavior in adolescence predicted binge drinking, alcohol dependence, use of illicit substances and poor general life satisfaction in young adulthood, explaining between 13 and 24% of the variance for the different outcome variables. This naturalistic study confirms that known risk factors for the development of AUD also apply to AIA. This finding facilitates targeted prevention efforts for those cases of AIA who need more than the standard brief intervention for aftercare. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  6. Learning from history, predicting the future: the UK Dutch elm disease outbreak in relation to contemporary tree disease threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Clive; Harwood, Tom; Knight, Jon; Tomlinson, Isobel

    2011-01-01

    Expanding international trade and increased transportation are heavily implicated in the growing threat posed by invasive pathogens to biodiversity and landscapes. With trees and woodland in the UK now facing threats from a number of disease systems, this paper looks to historical experience with the Dutch elm disease (DED) epidemic of the 1970s to see what can be learned about an outbreak and attempts to prevent, manage and control it. The paper draws on an interdisciplinary investigation into the history, biology and policy of the epidemic. It presents a reconstruction based on a spatial modelling exercise underpinned by archival research and interviews with individuals involved in the attempted management of the epidemic at the time. The paper explores what, if anything, might have been done to contain the outbreak and discusses the wider lessons for plant protection. Reading across to present-day biosecurity concerns, the paper looks at the current outbreak of ramorum blight in the UK and presents an analysis of the unfolding epidemiology and policy of this more recent, and potentially very serious, disease outbreak. The paper concludes by reflecting on the continuing contemporary relevance of the DED experience at an important juncture in the evolution of plant protection policy. PMID:21624917

  7. Seascape and life-history traits do not predict self-recruitment in a coral reef fish

    KAUST Repository

    Herrera Sarrias, Marcela

    2016-08-10

    The persistence and resilience of many coral reef species are dependent on rates of connectivity among sub-populations. However, despite increasing research efforts, the spatial scale of larval dispersal remains unpredictable for most marine metapopulations. Here, we assess patterns of larval dispersal in the angelfish Centropyge bicolor in Kimbe Bay, Papua New Guinea, using parentage and sibling reconstruction analyses based on 23 microsatellite DNA loci. We found that, contrary to previous findings in this system, self-recruitment (SR) was virtually absent at both the reef (0.4-0.5% at 0.15 km2) and the lagoon scale (0.6-0.8% at approx. 700 km2). While approximately 25%of the collected juveniles were identified as potential siblings, the majority of sibling pairs were sampled from separate reefs. Integrating our findings with earlier research from the same system suggests that geographical setting and life-history traits alone are not suitable predictors of SR and that high levels of localized recruitment are not universal in coral reef fishes. © 2016 The Authors.

  8. The use of laboratory adsorption data and models to predict radionuclide releases from a geological repository: A brief history

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langmuir, D.

    1997-01-01

    Radionuclide (RN) adsorption has long been recognized as important to assure the isolation of nuclear wastes in a geological repository. Laboratory measured RN adsorption data have generally been expressed as distribution coefficient (K d ) values or adsorption isotherms. The surface complexation (SC) adsorption models were introduced in the late 1970''s. The best known of these models incorporate electrical double layer (EDL) theory. Their use requires that the water chemistry and surface properties of adsorbing rocks and minerals be fully characterized. Because the SC models are relatively mechanistic, they may allow extrapolation of adsorption results to repository conditions that lie outside the limited experimental range used to parameterize a given model. Turner has shown that the diffuse layer model (the simplest SC model) fits a wide range of RN adsorption data as well as the more complex models. Others have suggested ways to generalize and estimate SC model parameters for a variety of minerals, rocks and engineered materials. Degueldre and Werlni and Degueldre et al. have proposed a simplified SC model for RN adsorption that avoids EDL theory, in which the adsorption of RN species is estimated from linear free energy relationships. It is appropriate to ask how accurately RN adsorption behavior must be known or understood for total system performance analysis (TSPA). In most geological settings now being considered for repository development globally, it may suffice to select bounding K d values for the different rock types. Use of the SC models to describe RN adsorption can provide one with increased confidence that minimum K d ''s and the distribution of K d values the author might propose for TSPA are in fact conservative. 68 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  9. An Australian nationwide survey on medicinal cannabis use for epilepsy: History of antiepileptic drug treatment predicts medicinal cannabis use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suraev, Anastasia S; Todd, Lisa; Bowen, Michael T; Allsop, David J; McGregor, Iain S; Ireland, Carol; Lintzeris, Nicholas

    2017-05-01

    Epilepsy Action Australia conducted an Australian nationwide online survey seeking opinions on and experiences with the use of cannabis-based products for the treatment of epilepsy. The survey was promoted via the Epilepsy Action Australia's main website, on their Facebook page, and by word of mouth. The survey consisted of 39 questions assessing demographics, clinical factors, including diagnosis and seizure types, and experiences with and opinions towards cannabis use in epilepsy. A total of 976 responses met the inclusion criteria. Results show that 15% of adults with epilepsy and 13% of parents/guardians of children with epilepsy were currently using, or had previously used, cannabis products to treat epilepsy. Of those with a history of cannabis product use, 90% of adults and 71% of parents reported success in reducing seizure frequency after commencing cannabis products. The main reasons for medicinal cannabis use were to manage treatment-resistant epilepsy and to obtain a more favorable side-effect profile compared to standard antiepileptic drugs. The number of past antiepileptic drugs tried was a significant predictor of medicinal cannabis use in both adults and children with epilepsy. Fifty-six percent of adults with epilepsy and 62% of parents/guardians of children with epilepsy expressed willingness to participate in clinical trials of cannabinoids. This survey provides insight into the use of cannabis products for epilepsy, in particular some of the likely factors influencing use, as well as novel insights into the experiences of and attitudes towards medicinal cannabis in people with epilepsy in the Australian community. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled "Cannabinoids and Epilepsy". Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. The Cynomolgus Macaque Natural History Model of Pneumonic Tularemia for Predicting Clinical Efficacy Under the Animal Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guina, Tina; Lanning, Lynda L.; Omland, Kristian S.; Williams, Mark S.; Wolfraim, Larry A.; Heyse, Stephen P.; Houchens, Christopher R.; Sanz, Patrick; Hewitt, Judith A.

    2018-01-01

    Francisella tularensis is a highly infectious Gram-negative bacterium that is the etiologic agent of tularemia in animals and humans and a Tier 1 select agent. The natural incidence of pneumonic tularemia worldwide is very low; therefore, it is not feasible to conduct clinical efficacy testing of tularemia medical countermeasures (MCM) in human populations. Development and licensure of tularemia therapeutics and vaccines need to occur under the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) Animal Rule under which efficacy studies are conducted in well-characterized animal models that reflect the pathophysiology of human disease. The Tularemia Animal Model Qualification (AMQ) Working Group is seeking qualification of the cynomolgus macaque (Macaca fascicularis) model of pneumonic tularemia under Drug Development Tools Qualification Programs with the FDA based upon the results of studies described in this manuscript. Analysis of data on survival, average time to death, average time to fever onset, average interval between fever and death, and bacteremia; together with summaries of clinical signs, necropsy findings, and histopathology from the animals exposed to aerosolized F. tularensis Schu S4 in five natural history studies and one antibiotic efficacy study form the basis for the proposed cynomolgus macaque model. Results support the conclusion that signs of pneumonic tularemia in cynomolgus macaques exposed to 300–3,000 colony forming units (cfu) aerosolized F. tularensis Schu S4, under the conditions described herein, and human pneumonic tularemia cases are highly similar. Animal age, weight, and sex of animals challenged with 300–3,000 cfu Schu S4 did not impact fever onset in studies described herein. This study summarizes critical parameters and endpoints of a well-characterized cynomolgus macaque model of pneumonic tularemia and demonstrates this model is appropriate for qualification, and for testing efficacy of tularemia therapeutics under Animal Rule. PMID

  11. Family history and body mass index predict perceived risks of diabetes and heart attack among community-dwelling Caucasian, Filipino, Korean, and Latino Americans--DiLH Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukuoka, Yoshimi; Choi, JiWon; S Bender, Melinda; Gonzalez, Prisila; Arai, Shoshana

    2015-07-01

    The purpose of the study was to explore the perceived risk for diabetes and heart attack and associated health status of Caucasian, Filipino, Korean, and Latino Americans without diabetes. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 904 urban adults (mean age 44.3±16.1 years; 64.3% female) in English, Spanish or Korean between August and December 2013. Perceived risk for developing diabetes was indicated by 46.5% (n=421), and 14.3% (n=129) perceived themselves to be at risk for having a heart attack in their lifetime. Significant predictors of pessimistic diabetes risk perceptions: Filipino (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=1.7; 95% CI: 1.04-2.86) and Korean (AOR=2.4; 1.33-4.48) ethnicity, family history of diabetes (AOR=1.4; 1.00-1.84), female gender (AOR=1.4; 1.04-1.96), high cholesterol (AOR= 1.6; 1.09-2.37) and higher body mass index (BMI) (AOR=1.1; 1.08-1.15). Predictors of pessimistic heart attack risk perceptions were family history of an early heart attack (AOR=2.9; 1.69-5.02), high blood pressure (AOR=2.4; 1.45-3.84), and higher BMI (AOR=1.1; 1.04-1.12) after controlling for socio-demographic factors. Older age, physical inactivity, smoking, and low HDL levels were not associated with risk perceptions. Multiple risk factors were predictive of greater perceived diabetes risk, whereas, only family history of heart attack, high blood pressure and increases in BMI significantly contributed to perceived risk of heart attack among ethnically diverse at risk middle-aged adults. It is important that healthcare providers address the discordance between an individual's risk perceptions and the presence of actual risk factors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Report on approaches to predicting probability of cyanobacteria blooms or related indices based on nutrient inputs and other ecosystem attributes in lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Despite a lengthy history of research on cyanobacteria, many important questions about this diverse group of aquatic, photosynthetic “blue-green algae” remain unanswered. For example, how can we more accurately predict cyanobacteria blooms in freshwater systems? Whi...

  13. How accurately can 21cm tomography constrain cosmology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Yi; Tegmark, Max; McQuinn, Matthew; Zaldarriaga, Matias; Zahn, Oliver

    2008-07-01

    There is growing interest in using 3-dimensional neutral hydrogen mapping with the redshifted 21 cm line as a cosmological probe. However, its utility depends on many assumptions. To aid experimental planning and design, we quantify how the precision with which cosmological parameters can be measured depends on a broad range of assumptions, focusing on the 21 cm signal from 6noise, to uncertainties in the reionization history, and to the level of contamination from astrophysical foregrounds. We derive simple analytic estimates for how various assumptions affect an experiment’s sensitivity, and we find that the modeling of reionization is the most important, followed by the array layout. We present an accurate yet robust method for measuring cosmological parameters that exploits the fact that the ionization power spectra are rather smooth functions that can be accurately fit by 7 phenomenological parameters. We find that for future experiments, marginalizing over these nuisance parameters may provide constraints almost as tight on the cosmology as if 21 cm tomography measured the matter power spectrum directly. A future square kilometer array optimized for 21 cm tomography could improve the sensitivity to spatial curvature and neutrino masses by up to 2 orders of magnitude, to ΔΩk≈0.0002 and Δmν≈0.007eV, and give a 4σ detection of the spectral index running predicted by the simplest inflation models.

  14. The Role of Metacognitive Reading Strategies, Metacognitive Study and Learning Strategies, and Behavioral Study and Learning Strategies in Predicting Academic Success in Students With and Without a History of Reading Difficulties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevalier, Thérèse M; Parrila, Rauno; Ritchie, Krista C; Deacon, S Hélène

    2017-01-01

    We examined the self-reported use of reading, study, and learning strategies in university students with a history of reading difficulties (HRD; n = 77) and with no history of reading difficulties (NRD; n = 295). We examined both between-groups differences in strategy use and strategy use as a predictive measure of academic success. Participants completed online questionnaires regarding reading history and strategy use. GPA and frequency of use of academic support services were also obtained for all students. University students with HRD reported a different profile of strategy use than their NRD peers, and self-reported strategy use was differentially predictive of GPA for students with HRD and NRD. For students with HRD, the use of metacognitive reading strategies and the use of study aids predicted academic success. Implications for university student services providers are discussed. © Hammill Institute on Disabilities 2015.

  15. Life histories predict genetic diversity and population structure within three species of octopus targeted by small-scale fisheries in Northwest Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceballos-Vázquez, Bertha P.; Arellano-Martínez, Marcial; García-Rodríguez, Francisco J.; Culver, Melanie; Reyes-Bonilla, Hector

    2018-01-01

    The fishery for octopus in Northwest Mexico has increased to over 2,000 tons annually, but to date the specific composition of the catch has been ignored. With at least three main species targeted by artisanal fisheries in the region with distinct life histories, the lack of basic biological information about the distribution, metapopulation size and structure of each species could impede effective fisheries management to avoid overexploitation. We tested if different life histories of three species of octopus could help predict observed patterns of genetic diversity, population dynamics, structure and connectivity and how this information could be relevant to the sustainable management of the fishery. We sequenced two mitochondrial genes and genotyped seven nuclear microsatellite loci to identify the distribution of each species in 20 locations from the Gulf of California and the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. We tested five hypotheses derived from population genetic theory based on differences in the fecundity and dispersal potential for each species. We discovered that Octopus bimaculoides with low fecundity and direct development (without a planktonic phase) had lower average effective population size and genetic diversity, but higher levels of kinship, population structure, and richness of private alleles, than the other two species. These features indicated limited dispersal and high local recruitment. In contrast, O. bimaculatus and O. hubbsorum with higher fecundity and planktonic phase as paralarvae had higher effective population size and genetic diversity, and overall lower kinship and population structure than O. bimaculoides. These observations supported higher levels of gene flow over a larger geographical scale. O. bimaculatus with the longest planktonic paralarval duration and therefore larger dispersal potential had differences in the calculated parameters possibly associated with increased connectivity. We propose O

  16. Accurate Evaluation of Quantum Integrals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galant, D. C.; Goorvitch, D.; Witteborn, Fred C. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    Combining an appropriate finite difference method with Richardson's extrapolation results in a simple, highly accurate numerical method for solving a Schrodinger's equation. Important results are that error estimates are provided, and that one can extrapolate expectation values rather than the wavefunctions to obtain highly accurate expectation values. We discuss the eigenvalues, the error growth in repeated Richardson's extrapolation, and show that the expectation values calculated on a crude mesh can be extrapolated to obtain expectation values of high accuracy.

  17. New insights in the interpretation of array-CGH: autism spectrum disorder and positive family history for intellectual disability predict the detection of pathogenic variants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappuccio, Gerarda; Vitiello, Francesco; Casertano, Alberto; Fontana, Paolo; Genesio, Rita; Bruzzese, Dario; Ginocchio, Virginia Maria; Mormile, Angela; Nitsch, Lucio; Andria, Generoso; Melis, Daniela

    2016-04-12

    Array-CGH (aCGH) is presently used into routine clinical practice for diagnosis of patients with intellectual disability (ID), multiple congenital anomalies (MCA), and autism spectrum disorder (ASD). ACGH could detect small chromosomal imbalances, copy number variations (CNVs), and closely define their size and gene content. ACGH detects pathogenic imbalances in 14-20 % of patients with ID. The aims of this study were: to establish clinical clues potentially associated with pathogenic CNVs and to identify cytogenetic indicators to predict the pathogenicity of the variants of uncertain significance (VOUS) in a large cohort of paediatric patients. We enrolled 214 patients referred for either: ID, and/or ASD and/or MCA to genetic services at the Federico II University of Naples, Department of Translational Medicine. For each patient we collected clinical and imaging data. All the patients were tested with aCGH or as first-tier test or as part of a wider diagnostic work-up. Pathologic data were detected in 65 individuals (30 %) and 46 CNVs revealed a known syndrome. The pathological CNVs were usually deletions showing the highest gene-dosage content. The positive family history for ID/ASD/MCA and ASD were good indicators for detecting pathological chromosomal rearrangements. Other clinical features as eyes anomalies, hearing loss, neurological signs, cutaneous dyscromia and endocrinological problems seem to be potential predictors of pathological CNVs. Among patients carrying VOUS we analyzed genetic features including CNVs size, presence of deletion or duplication, genic density, multiple CNVs, to clinical features. Higher gene density was found in patients affected by ID. This result suggest that higher gene content has more chances to include pathogenic gene involved and causing ID in these patients. Our study suggest the use of aCGH as first-tier test in patients with neurdevelopmental phenotypes. The inferred results have been used for building a flow-chart to be

  18. Evaluation of the Apache II and the oncologic history, as indicative predictions of mortality in the unit of intensive care of the INC September 1996 -December 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camargo, David O; Gomez, Clara; Martinez, Teresa

    1999-01-01

    They are multiple the indexes of severity that have been carried out to value the predict and the quality of a patient's life, especially when this it enters to the unit of intensive care (UIC); however, the oncologic patient presents particularities in their mobility, that it supposes a different behavior in the results of the Indexes. Presently work is compared the Apache scale and the oncologic history like morbid mortality as predictors in the UCI. 207 patients were included that entered the UCI between September of 1996 and December of 1997. It was a mortality of 29%, the stay of most of this group of patient smaller than 24 hours or bigger than 8 days. To the entrance, 50% of the patients presented superior averages at 15 in the Apache Scale and at the 48 hours, alone 30.4% continued with this value. The patients with hematologic neoplasia presented superior average at 15 in 87%, with a mortality of 63.3% with average between 15 and 24 to the entrance, the risk of dying was 9.8 times but that with inferior average. In the hematologic patient, the risk of dying was 5.7 times but regarding the solid tumors. The system but altered it was the breathing one, with an increase in the risk of dying from 2,8 times for each increment utility in the scale. Contrary to described in the literature, the oncologic diagnoses and the neoplasia statistic they didn't influence in the mortality of the patients

  19. Systemic inflammatory response syndrome and model for end-stage liver disease score accurately predict the in-hospital mortality of black African patients with decompensated cirrhosis at initial hospitalization: a retrospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahassadi AK

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Alassan Kouamé Mahassadi,1 Justine Laure Konang Nguieguia,1 Henriette Ya Kissi,1 Anthony Afum-Adjei Awuah,2 Aboubacar Demba Bangoura,1 Stanislas Adjeka Doffou,1 Alain Koffi Attia1 1Medicine and Hepatogastroenterology Unit, Centre Hospitalier et Universitaire de Yopougon, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire; 2Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kumasi, Ghana Background: Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Prediction of mortality at initial hospitalization is unknown in black African patients with decompensated cirrhosis.Aim: This study aimed to look at the role of MELD score and SIRS as the predictors of morbidity and mortality at initial hospitalization.Patients and methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we enrolled 159 patients with cirrhosis (median age: 49 years, 70.4% males. The role of Child–Pugh–Turcotte (CPT score, MELD score, and SIRS on mortality was determined by the Kaplan–Meier method, and the prognosis factors were assessed with Cox regression model.Results: At initial hospitalization, 74.2%, 20.1%, and 37.7% of the patients with cirrhosis showed the presence of ascites, hepatorenal syndrome, and esophageal varices, respectively. During the in-hospital follow-up, 40 (25.2% patients died. The overall incidence of mortality was found to be 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI: 2.2–4.1] per 100 person-days. Survival probabilities were found to be high in case of patients who were SIRS negative (log-rank test= 4.51, p=0.03 and in case of patients with MELD score ≤16 (log-rank test=7.26, p=0.01 compared to the patients who were SIRS positive and those with MELD score >16. Only SIRS (hazard ratio (HR=3.02, [95% CI: 1.4–7.4], p=0.01 and MELD score >16 (HR=2.2, [95% CI: 1.1–4.3], p=0.02 were independent predictors of mortality in multivariate analysis except CPT, which was not relevant in our study

  20. Does the Spectrum model accurately predict trends in adult mortality? Evaluation of model estimates using empirical data from a rural HIV community cohort study in north-western Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denna Michael

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Spectrum epidemiological models are used by UNAIDS to provide global, regional and national HIV estimates and projections, which are then used for evidence-based health planning for HIV services. However, there are no validations of the Spectrum model against empirical serological and mortality data from populations in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: Serologic, demographic and verbal autopsy data have been regularly collected among over 30,000 residents in north-western Tanzania since 1994. Five-year age-specific mortality rates (ASMRs per 1,000 person years and the probability of dying between 15 and 60 years of age (45Q15, were calculated and compared with the Spectrum model outputs. Mortality trends by HIV status are shown for periods before the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (1994–1999, 2000–2005 and the first 5 years afterwards (2005–2009. Results: Among 30–34 year olds of both sexes, observed ASMRs per 1,000 person years were 13.33 (95% CI: 10.75–16.52 in the period 1994–1999, 11.03 (95% CI: 8.84–13.77 in 2000–2004, and 6.22 (95% CI; 4.75–8.15 in 2005–2009. Among the same age group, the ASMRs estimated by the Spectrum model were 10.55, 11.13 and 8.15 for the periods 1994–1999, 2000–2004 and 2005–2009, respectively. The cohort data, for both sexes combined, showed that the 45Q15 declined from 39% (95% CI: 27–55% in 1994 to 22% (95% CI: 17–29% in 2009, whereas the Spectrum model predicted a decline from 43% in 1994 to 37% in 2009. Conclusion: From 1994 to 2009, the observed decrease in ASMRs was steeper in younger age groups than that predicted by the Spectrum model, perhaps because the Spectrum model under-estimated the ASMRs in 30–34 year olds in 1994–99. However, the Spectrum model predicted a greater decrease in 45Q15 mortality than observed in the cohort, although the reasons for this over-estimate are unclear.

  1. Nonsurgical giant cell tumour of the tendon sheath or of the diffuse type: Are MRI or 18F-FDG PET/CT able to provide an accurate prediction of long-term outcome?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dercle, Laurent; Chisin, Roland; Ammari, Samy; Gillebert, Quentin; Ouali, Monia; Jaudet, Cyril; Dierickx, Lawrence; Zerdoud, Slimane; Courbon, Frederic; Delord, Jean-Pierre; Schlumberger, Martin

    2015-01-01

    To investigate whether MRI (RECIST 1.1, WHO criteria and the volumetric approach) or 18 F-FDG PET/CT (PERCIST 1.0) are able to predict long-term outcome in nonsurgical patients with giant cell tumour of the tendon sheath or of the diffuse type (GCT-TS/DT). Fifteen ''nonsurgical'' patients with a histological diagnosis of GCT-TS/DT were divided into two groups: symptomatic patients receiving targeted therapy and asymptomatic untreated patients. All 15 patients were evaluated by MRI of whom 10 were treated, and a subgroup of 7 patients were evaluated by PET/CT of whom 4 were treated. Early evolution was assessed according to MRI and PET/CT scans at baseline and during follow-up. Cohen's kappa coefficient was used to evaluate the degree of agreement between PERCIST 1.0, RECIST 1.1, WHO criteria, volumetric approaches and the reference standard (long-term outcome, delay 505 ± 457 days). The response rate in symptomatic patients with GCT-TS/DT receiving targeted therapy was also assessed in a larger population that included additional patients obtained from a review of the literature. The kappa coefficients for agreement between RECIST/WHO/volumetric criteria and outcome (15 patients) were respectively: 0.35 (p = 0.06), 0.26 (p = 0.17) and 0.26 (p = 0.17). In the PET/CT subgroup (7 patients), PERCIST was in perfect agreement with the late symptomatic evolution (kappa = 1, p 18 F-FDG PET/CT with PERCIST is a promising approach to the prediction of the long-term outcome in GCT-TS/DT and may avoid unnecessary treatments, toxicity and costs. On MRI, WHO and volumetric approaches are not more effective than RECIST using the current thresholds. (orig.)

  2. Towards accurate emergency response behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sargent, T.O.

    1981-01-01

    Nuclear reactor operator emergency response behavior has persisted as a training problem through lack of information. The industry needs an accurate definition of operator behavior in adverse stress conditions, and training methods which will produce the desired behavior. Newly assembled information from fifty years of research into human behavior in both high and low stress provides a more accurate definition of appropriate operator response, and supports training methods which will produce the needed control room behavior. The research indicates that operator response in emergencies is divided into two modes, conditioned behavior and knowledge based behavior. Methods which assure accurate conditioned behavior, and provide for the recovery of knowledge based behavior, are described in detail

  3. When Is Network Lasso Accurate?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Jung

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The “least absolute shrinkage and selection operator” (Lasso method has been adapted recently for network-structured datasets. In particular, this network Lasso method allows to learn graph signals from a small number of noisy signal samples by using the total variation of a graph signal for regularization. While efficient and scalable implementations of the network Lasso are available, only little is known about the conditions on the underlying network structure which ensure network Lasso to be accurate. By leveraging concepts of compressed sensing, we address this gap and derive precise conditions on the underlying network topology and sampling set which guarantee the network Lasso for a particular loss function to deliver an accurate estimate of the entire underlying graph signal. We also quantify the error incurred by network Lasso in terms of two constants which reflect the connectivity of the sampled nodes.

  4. History Matters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2017-01-01

    In 2002, she began working as alecturer at Minzu University of China.Now, she teaches English, historicalliterature, ancient Chinese history,historical theory and method, ancientsocial history of China, ancient palacepolitical history of China and the historyof the Sui and Tang dynasties and thePeriod of Five Dynasties.

  5. The Accurate Particle Tracer Code

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Yulei; Liu, Jian; Qin, Hong; Yu, Zhi

    2016-01-01

    The Accurate Particle Tracer (APT) code is designed for large-scale particle simulations on dynamical systems. Based on a large variety of advanced geometric algorithms, APT possesses long-term numerical accuracy and stability, which are critical for solving multi-scale and non-linear problems. Under the well-designed integrated and modularized framework, APT serves as a universal platform for researchers from different fields, such as plasma physics, accelerator physics, space science, fusio...

  6. Accurate x-ray spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deslattes, R.D.

    1987-01-01

    Heavy ion accelerators are the most flexible and readily accessible sources of highly charged ions. These having only one or two remaining electrons have spectra whose accurate measurement is of considerable theoretical significance. Certain features of ion production by accelerators tend to limit the accuracy which can be realized in measurement of these spectra. This report aims to provide background about spectroscopic limitations and discuss how accelerator operations may be selected to permit attaining intrinsically limited data

  7. Histories electromagnetism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burch, Aidan

    2004-01-01

    Working within the HPO (History Projection Operator) Consistent Histories formalism, we follow the work of Savvidou on (scalar) field theory [J. Math. Phys. 43, 3053 (2002)] and that of Savvidou and Anastopoulos on (first-class) constrained systems [Class. Quantum Gravt. 17, 2463 (2000)] to write a histories theory (both classical and quantum) of Electromagnetism. We focus particularly on the foliation-dependence of the histories phase space/Hilbert space and the action thereon of the two Poincare groups that arise in histories field theory. We quantize in the spirit of the Dirac scheme for constrained systems

  8. Accurate determination of antenna directivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dich, Mikael

    1997-01-01

    The derivation of a formula for accurate estimation of the total radiated power from a transmitting antenna for which the radiated power density is known in a finite number of points on the far-field sphere is presented. The main application of the formula is determination of directivity from power......-pattern measurements. The derivation is based on the theory of spherical wave expansion of electromagnetic fields, which also establishes a simple criterion for the required number of samples of the power density. An array antenna consisting of Hertzian dipoles is used to test the accuracy and rate of convergence...

  9. The role of stand history in assessing forest impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, V.H.; Doyle, T.W.

    1987-01-01

    Air pollution, harvesting practices, and natural disturbances can affect the growth of trees and forest development. To make predictions about anthropogenic impacts on forests, we need to understand how these factors affect tree growth. In this study the effect of disturbance history on tree growth and stand structure was examined by using a computer model of forest development. The model was run under the climatic conditions of east Tennessee, USA, and the results compared to stand structure and tree growth data from a yellow poplar-white oak forest. Basal area growth and forest biomass were more accurately projected when rough approximations of the thinning and fire history typical of the measured plots were included in the simulation model. Stand history can influence tree growth rates and forest structure and should be included in any attempt to assess forest impacts.

  10. WGS accurately predicts antimicrobial resistance in Escherichia coli

    Science.gov (United States)

    Objectives: To determine the effectiveness of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) in identifying resistance genotypes of multidrug-resistant Escherichia coli (E. coli) and whether these correlate with observed phenotypes. Methods: Seventy-six E. coli strains were isolated from farm cattle and measured f...

  11. Standardized EEG interpretation accurately predicts prognosis after cardiac arrest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Westhall, Erik; Rossetti, Andrea O.; van Rootselaar, Anne-Fleur; Wesenberg Kjaer, Troels; Horn, Janneke; Ullén, Susann; Friberg, Hans; Nielsen, Niklas; Rosén, Ingmar; Åneman, Anders; Erlinge, David; Gasche, Yvan; Hassager, Christian; Hovdenes, Jan; Kjaergaard, Jesper; Kuiper, Michael; Pellis, Tommaso; Stammet, Pascal; Wanscher, Michael; Wetterslev, Jørn; Wise, Matt P.; Cronberg, Tobias; Saxena, Manoj; Miller, Jennene; Inskip, Deborah; Macken, Lewis; Finfer, Simon; Eatough, Noel; Hammond, Naomi; Bass, Frances; Yarad, Elizabeth; O'Connor, Anne; Bird, Simon; Jewell, Timothy; Davies, Gareth; Ng, Karl; Coward, Sharon; Stewart, Antony; Micallef, Sharon; Parker, Sharyn; Cortado, Dennis; Gould, Ann; Harward, Meg; Thompson, Kelly; Glass, Parisa; Myburgh, John; Smid, Ondrej; Belholavek, Jan; Juffermans, Nicole P.; Boerma, EC

    2016-01-01

    To identify reliable predictors of outcome in comatose patients after cardiac arrest using a single routine EEG and standardized interpretation according to the terminology proposed by the American Clinical Neurophysiology Society. In this cohort study, 4 EEG specialists, blinded to outcome,

  12. Accurate prediction of secondary metabolite gene clusters in filamentous fungi

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikael Rørdam; Nielsen, Jakob Blæsbjerg; Klitgaard, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    Biosynthetic pathways of secondary metabolites from fungi are currently subject to an intense effort to elucidate the genetic basis for these compounds due to their large potential within pharmaceutics and synthetic biochemistry. The preferred method is methodical gene deletions to identify...... used A. nidulans for our method development and validation due to the wealth of available biochemical data, but the method can be applied to any fungus with a sequenced and assembled genome, thus supporting further secondary metabolite pathway elucidation in the fungal kingdom....

  13. Ethics and epistemology of accurate prediction in clinical research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hey, Spencer Phillips

    2015-07-01

    All major research ethics policies assert that the ethical review of clinical trial protocols should include a systematic assessment of risks and benefits. But despite this policy, protocols do not typically contain explicit probability statements about the likely risks or benefits involved in the proposed research. In this essay, I articulate a range of ethical and epistemic advantages that explicit forecasting would offer to the health research enterprise. I then consider how some particular confidence levels may come into conflict with the principles of ethical research. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  14. Entangled histories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cotler, Jordan; Wilczek, Frank

    2016-01-01

    We introduce quantum history states and their mathematical framework, thereby reinterpreting and extending the consistent histories approach to quantum theory. Through thought experiments, we demonstrate that our formalism allows us to analyze a quantum version of history in which we reconstruct the past by observations. In particular, we can pass from measurements to inferences about ‘what happened’ in a way that is sensible and free of paradox. Our framework allows for a richer understanding of the temporal structure of quantum theory, and we construct history states that embody peculiar, non-classical correlations in time. (paper)

  15. Accurate Modeling of Advanced Reflectarrays

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Min

    to the conventional phase-only optimization technique (POT), the geometrical parameters of the array elements are directly optimized to fulfill the far-field requirements, thus maintaining a direct relation between optimization goals and optimization variables. As a result, better designs can be obtained compared...... of the incident field, the choice of basis functions, and the technique to calculate the far-field. Based on accurate reference measurements of two offset reflectarrays carried out at the DTU-ESA Spherical NearField Antenna Test Facility, it was concluded that the three latter factors are particularly important...... using the GDOT to demonstrate its capabilities. To verify the accuracy of the GDOT, two offset contoured beam reflectarrays that radiate a high-gain beam on a European coverage have been designed and manufactured, and subsequently measured at the DTU-ESA Spherical Near-Field Antenna Test Facility...

  16. Accurate thickness measurement of graphene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shearer, Cameron J; Slattery, Ashley D; Stapleton, Andrew J; Shapter, Joseph G; Gibson, Christopher T

    2016-01-01

    Graphene has emerged as a material with a vast variety of applications. The electronic, optical and mechanical properties of graphene are strongly influenced by the number of layers present in a sample. As a result, the dimensional characterization of graphene films is crucial, especially with the continued development of new synthesis methods and applications. A number of techniques exist to determine the thickness of graphene films including optical contrast, Raman scattering and scanning probe microscopy techniques. Atomic force microscopy (AFM), in particular, is used extensively since it provides three-dimensional images that enable the measurement of the lateral dimensions of graphene films as well as the thickness, and by extension the number of layers present. However, in the literature AFM has proven to be inaccurate with a wide range of measured values for single layer graphene thickness reported (between 0.4 and 1.7 nm). This discrepancy has been attributed to tip-surface interactions, image feedback settings and surface chemistry. In this work, we use standard and carbon nanotube modified AFM probes and a relatively new AFM imaging mode known as PeakForce tapping mode to establish a protocol that will allow users to accurately determine the thickness of graphene films. In particular, the error in measuring the first layer is reduced from 0.1–1.3 nm to 0.1–0.3 nm. Furthermore, in the process we establish that the graphene-substrate adsorbate layer and imaging force, in particular the pressure the tip exerts on the surface, are crucial components in the accurate measurement of graphene using AFM. These findings can be applied to other 2D materials. (paper)

  17. Accurate Cross Sections for Microanalysis

    OpenAIRE

    Rez, Peter

    2002-01-01

    To calculate the intensity of x-ray emission in electron beam microanalysis requires a knowledge of the energy distribution of the electrons in the solid, the energy variation of the ionization cross section of the relevant subshell, the fraction of ionizations events producing x rays of interest and the absorption coefficient of the x rays on the path to the detector. The theoretical predictions and experimental data available for ionization cross sections are limited mainly to K shells of a...

  18. Intellectual History

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    In the 5 Questions book series, this volume presents a range of leading scholars in Intellectual History and the History of Ideas through their answers to a brief questionnaire. Respondents include Michael Friedman, Jacques le Goff, Hans Ulrich Gumbrecht, Jonathan Israel, Phiip Pettit, John Pocock...

  19. The accurate particle tracer code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yulei; Liu, Jian; Qin, Hong; Yu, Zhi; Yao, Yicun

    2017-11-01

    The Accurate Particle Tracer (APT) code is designed for systematic large-scale applications of geometric algorithms for particle dynamical simulations. Based on a large variety of advanced geometric algorithms, APT possesses long-term numerical accuracy and stability, which are critical for solving multi-scale and nonlinear problems. To provide a flexible and convenient I/O interface, the libraries of Lua and Hdf5 are used. Following a three-step procedure, users can efficiently extend the libraries of electromagnetic configurations, external non-electromagnetic forces, particle pushers, and initialization approaches by use of the extendible module. APT has been used in simulations of key physical problems, such as runaway electrons in tokamaks and energetic particles in Van Allen belt. As an important realization, the APT-SW version has been successfully distributed on the world's fastest computer, the Sunway TaihuLight supercomputer, by supporting master-slave architecture of Sunway many-core processors. Based on large-scale simulations of a runaway beam under parameters of the ITER tokamak, it is revealed that the magnetic ripple field can disperse the pitch-angle distribution significantly and improve the confinement of energetic runaway beam on the same time.

  20. Spherical near-field antenna measurements — The most accurate antenna measurement technique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinbjerg, Olav

    2016-01-01

    The spherical near-field antenna measurement technique combines several advantages and generally constitutes the most accurate technique for experimental characterization of radiation from antennas. This paper/presentation discusses these advantages, briefly reviews the early history and present...

  1. Fast reconstruction and prediction of frozen flow turbulence based on structured Kalman filtering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fraanje, P.R.; Rice, J.; Verhaegen, M.; Doelman, N.J.

    2010-01-01

    Efficient and optimal prediction of frozen flow turbulence using the complete observation history of the wavefront sensor is an important issue in adaptive optics for large ground-based telescopes. At least for the sake of error budgeting and algorithm performance, the evaluation of an accurate

  2. Family History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Your family history includes health information about you and your close relatives. Families have many factors in common, including their genes, ... as heart disease, stroke, and cancer. Having a family member with a disease raises your risk, but ...

  3. Accurately Detecting Students' Lies regarding Relational Aggression by Correctional Instructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickhauser, Oliver; Reinhard, Marc-Andre; Marksteiner, Tamara

    2012-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of correctional instructions when detecting lies about relational aggression. Based on models from the field of social psychology, we predict that correctional instruction will lead to a less pronounced lie bias and to more accurate lie detection. Seventy-five teachers received videotapes of students' true denial…

  4. The accurate definition of metabolic volumes on {sup 18}F-FDG-PET before treatment allows the response to chemoradiotherapy to be predicted in the case of oesophagus cancers; La definition precise des volumes metaboliques sur TEP au 18F-FDG avant traitement permet la prediction de la reponse a la chimioradiotherapie dans les cancers de l'oesophage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hatt, M.; Cheze-Le Rest, C.; Visvikis, D. [Inserm U650, Brest (France); Pradier, O. [Radiotherapie, CHRU Morvan, Brest (France)

    2011-10-15

    This study aims at assessing the possibility of prediction of the response of locally advanced oesophagus cancers, even before the beginning of treatment, by using metabolic volume measurements performed on {sup 18}F-FDG PET images made before the treatment. Medical files of 50 patients have been analyzed. According to the observed responses, and to metabolic volume and Total Lesion Glycosis (TLG) values, it appears that the images allow the extraction of parameters, such as the TLG, which are criteria for the prediction of the therapeutic response. Short communication

  5. Evolutionary rate variation and RNA secondary structure prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, B.; Andersen, E.S.; Damgaard, C.

    2004-01-01

    Predicting RNA secondary structure using evolutionary history can be carried out by using an alignment of related RNA sequences with conserved structure. Accurately determining evolutionary substitution rates for base pairs and single stranded nucleotides is a concern for methods based on this type...... by applying rates derived from tRNA and rRNA to the prediction of the much more rapidly evolving 5'-region of HIV-1. We find that the HIV-1 prediction is in agreement with experimental data, even though the relative evolutionary rate between A and G is significantly increased, both in stem and loop regions...

  6. Prediction of outcome in patients with low back pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kongsted, Alice; Andersen, Cathrine Hedegaard; Mørk Hansen, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The clinical course of low back pain (LBP) cannot be accurately predicted by existing prediction tools. Therefore clinicians rely largely on their experience and clinical judgement. The objectives of this study were to investigate 1) which patient characteristics were associated with chiropractors...... intensity (0-10) and disability (RMDQ) after 2-weeks, 3-months, and 12-months. The course of LBP in 859 patients was predicted to be short (54%), prolonged (36%), or chronic (7%). Clinicians' expectations were most strongly associated with education, LBP history, radiating pain, and neurological signs......' expectations of outcome from a LBP episode, 2) if clinicians' expectations related to outcome, 3) how accurate clinical predictions were as compared to those of the STarT Back Screening Tool (SBT), and 4) if accuracy was improved by combining clinicians' expectations and the SBT. Outcomes were measured as LBP...

  7. Sequence History Update Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanampompan, Teerapat; Gladden, Roy; Fisher, Forest; DelGuercio, Chris

    2008-01-01

    The Sequence History Update Tool performs Web-based sequence statistics archiving for Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). Using a single UNIX command, the software takes advantage of sequencing conventions to automatically extract the needed statistics from multiple files. This information is then used to populate a PHP database, which is then seamlessly formatted into a dynamic Web page. This tool replaces a previous tedious and error-prone process of manually editing HTML code to construct a Web-based table. Because the tool manages all of the statistics gathering and file delivery to and from multiple data sources spread across multiple servers, there is also a considerable time and effort savings. With the use of The Sequence History Update Tool what previously took minutes is now done in less than 30 seconds, and now provides a more accurate archival record of the sequence commanding for MRO.

  8. REDUCING UNCERTAINTIES IN MODEL PREDICTIONS VIA HISTORY MATCHING OF CO2 MIGRATION AND REACTIVE TRANSPORT MODELING OF CO2 FATE AT THE SLEIPNER PROJECT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Chen

    2015-03-31

    An important question for the Carbon Capture, Storage, and Utility program is “can we adequately predict the CO2 plume migration?” For tracking CO2 plume development, the Sleipner project in the Norwegian North Sea provides more time-lapse seismic monitoring data than any other sites, but significant uncertainties still exist for some of the reservoir parameters. In Part I, we assessed model uncertainties by applying two multi-phase compositional simulators to the Sleipner Benchmark model for the uppermost layer (Layer 9) of the Utsira Sand and calibrated our model against the time-lapsed seismic monitoring data for the site from 1999 to 2010. Approximate match with the observed plume was achieved by introducing lateral permeability anisotropy, adding CH4 into the CO2 stream, and adjusting the reservoir temperatures. Model-predicted gas saturation, CO2 accumulation thickness, and CO2 solubility in brine—none were used as calibration metrics—were all comparable with the interpretations of the seismic data in the literature. In Part II & III, we evaluated the uncertainties of predicted long-term CO2 fate up to 10,000 years, due to uncertain reaction kinetics. Under four scenarios of the kinetic rate laws, the temporal and spatial evolution of CO2 partitioning into the four trapping mechanisms (hydrodynamic/structural, solubility, residual/capillary, and mineral) was simulated with ToughReact, taking into account the CO2-brine-rock reactions and the multi-phase reactive flow and mass transport. Modeling results show that different rate laws for mineral dissolution and precipitation reactions resulted in different predicted amounts of trapped CO2 by carbonate minerals, with scenarios of the conventional linear rate law for feldspar dissolution having twice as much mineral trapping (21% of the injected CO2) as scenarios with a Burch-type or Alekseyev et al.–type rate law for feldspar dissolution (11%). So far, most reactive transport modeling (RTM) studies for

  9. Environmental history

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pawson, Eric; Christensen, Andreas Aagaard

    2017-01-01

    Environmental history is an interdisciplinary pursuit that has developed as a form of conscience to counter an increasingly powerful, forward-looking liberal theory of the environment. It deals with the relations between environmental ideas and materialities, from the work of the geographers George...... risks”. These are exposed by environmental history’s focus on long-run analysis and its narrative form that identifies the stories that we tell ourselves about nature. How a better understanding of past environmental transformations helps to analyse society and agency, and what this can mean...... for solutions and policies, is the agenda for an engaged environmental history from now on....

  10. Ildens historier

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen, Henrik Roesgaard

    have been written by Andersen. In several chapters the curiously forgotten history of fire-lighting technology is outlined, and it is demonstrated that "Tællelyset" is written by a person with a modern perspective on how to light a candle - among other things. The central argument in the book springs...... from a point-by-point tracing of 'the origins and history' of Hans Christian Andersen's famous fairy tales. Where did the come from? How did they become the iconic texts that we know today? On this background it becomes quite clear that "Tællelyset" is a modern pastiche and not a genuine Hans Christian...

  11. Life History of Aggression scores are predicted by childhood hyperactivity, conduct disorder, adult substance abuse, and low cooperativeness in adult psychiatric patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofvander, Björn; Ståhlberg, Ola; Nydén, Agneta; Wentz, Elisabet; degl'Innocenti, Alessio; Billstedt, Eva; Forsman, Anders; Gillberg, Christopher; Nilsson, Thomas; Rastam, Maria; Anckarsäter, Henrik

    2011-01-30

    The prevention of aggressive behaviours is a core priority for psychiatric clinical work, but the association between the diagnostic concepts used in psychiatry and aggression remains largely unknown. Outpatients referred for psychiatric evaluations of childhood-onset neuropsychiatric disorders (n=178) and perpetrators of violent crimes referred to pre-trial forensic psychiatric investigations (n=92) had comprehensive, instrument-based, psychiatric assessments, including the Life History of Aggression (LHA) scales. Total and subscale LHA scores were compared to the categorical and dimensional diagnoses of childhood and adult DSM-IV axis I and II mental disorders, general intelligence (IQ), Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), and personality traits according to the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI). Overall, the two groups had similar LHA scores, but the offender group scored higher on the Antisocial subscale. Higher total LHA scores were independently associated with the hyperactivity facet of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (AD/HD), childhood conduct disorder, substance-related disorders, and low scores on the Cooperativeness character dimension according to the TCI. IQ and GAF-scores were negatively correlated with the LHA subscale Self-directed aggression. Autistic traits were inversely correlated with aggression among outpatients, while the opposite pattern was noted in the forensic group. The findings call for assessments of aggression-related behaviours in all psychiatric settings. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Range-Space Predictive Control for Optimal Robot Motion

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Belda, Květoslav; Böhm, Josef

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 1 (2008), s. 1-7 ISSN 1998-0140 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP102/06/P275 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Accurate manipulation * Industrial robotics * Predictive control * Range-space control Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/historie/belda-0305644.pdf

  13. Approaches for the accurate definition of geological time boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaltegger, Urs; Baresel, Björn; Ovtcharova, Maria; Goudemand, Nicolas; Bucher, Hugo

    2015-04-01

    Which strategies lead to the most precise and accurate date of a given geological boundary? Geological units are usually defined by the occurrence of characteristic taxa and hence boundaries between these geological units correspond to dramatic faunal and/or floral turnovers and they are primarily defined using first or last occurrences of index species, or ideally by the separation interval between two consecutive, characteristic associations of fossil taxa. These boundaries need to be defined in a way that enables their worldwide recognition and correlation across different stratigraphic successions, using tools as different as bio-, magneto-, and chemo-stratigraphy, and astrochronology. Sedimentary sequences can be dated in numerical terms by applying high-precision chemical-abrasion, isotope-dilution, thermal-ionization mass spectrometry (CA-ID-TIMS) U-Pb age determination to zircon (ZrSiO4) in intercalated volcanic ashes. But, though volcanic activity is common in geological history, ashes are not necessarily close to the boundary we would like to date precisely and accurately. In addition, U-Pb zircon data sets may be very complex and difficult to interpret in terms of the age of ash deposition. To overcome these difficulties we use a multi-proxy approach we applied to the precise and accurate dating of the Permo-Triassic and Early-Middle Triassic boundaries in South China. a) Dense sampling of ashes across the critical time interval and a sufficiently large number of analysed zircons per ash sample can guarantee the recognition of all system complexities. Geochronological datasets from U-Pb dating of volcanic zircon may indeed combine effects of i) post-crystallization Pb loss from percolation of hydrothermal fluids (even using chemical abrasion), with ii) age dispersion from prolonged residence of earlier crystallized zircon in the magmatic system. As a result, U-Pb dates of individual zircons are both apparently younger and older than the depositional age

  14. Spectrally accurate initial data in numerical relativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battista, Nicholas A.

    Einstein's theory of general relativity has radically altered the way in which we perceive the universe. His breakthrough was to realize that the fabric of space is deformable in the presence of mass, and that space and time are linked into a continuum. Much evidence has been gathered in support of general relativity over the decades. Some of the indirect evidence for GR includes the phenomenon of gravitational lensing, the anomalous perihelion of mercury, and the gravitational redshift. One of the most striking predictions of GR, that has not yet been confirmed, is the existence of gravitational waves. The primary source of gravitational waves in the universe is thought to be produced during the merger of binary black hole systems, or by binary neutron stars. The starting point for computer simulations of black hole mergers requires highly accurate initial data for the space-time metric and for the curvature. The equations describing the initial space-time around the black hole(s) are non-linear, elliptic partial differential equations (PDE). We will discuss how to use a pseudo-spectral (collocation) method to calculate the initial puncture data corresponding to single black hole and binary black hole systems.

  15. Business History

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Per H.

    2012-01-01

    This article argues that a cultural and narrative perspective can enrich the business history field, encourage new and different questions and answers, and provide new ways of thinking about methods and empirical material. It discusses what culture is and how it relates to narratives. Taking...

  16. LCA History

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørn, Anders; Owsianiak, Mikołaj; Molin, Christine

    2018-01-01

    The idea of LCA was conceived in the 1960s when environmental degradation and in particular the limited access to resources started becoming a concern. This chapter gives a brief summary of the history of LCA since then with a focus on the fields of methodological development, application...

  17. Rewriting History.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez, Catherine Clark

    1994-01-01

    Suggests that the telling of vivid stories can help engage elementary students' emotions and increase the chances of fostering an interest in Texas history. Suggests that incorporating elements of the process approach to writing can merge with social studies objectives in creating a curriculum for wisdom. (RS)

  18. A case history of using high-resolution LiDAR data to support archaeological prediction models in a low-relief area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacskó, Vivien; Székely, Balázs; Stibrányi, Máté; Koma, Zsófia

    2016-04-01

    Hungary is situated in the crossroad of several large-scale infrastructural pathways like transnational pipelines and transcontinental motorways. At the same time the country is rich in known and potential archaeological sites. Archaeological prediction techniques aided by remote sensing are intended to help increase preparedness for archaeological surveying and rescue activities in response to planned new infrastructural developments (e.g., a new pipeline), as they try to estimate the number of potential archaeological sites, area to be surveyed, potential cost and time needed for these activities. In very low-relief areas microtopographic forms may indicate sites, high-resolution LiDAR DTMs are suitable for their detection. Main sources of archaeological prediction models are known archaeological sites, where optimal environmental conditions of settling down existed at historic ages. Hydrological characteristics, relief, geology, vegetation cover and soil are considered to be as most important natural factors. Sorting of the factors and accuracy of the sampling differentiate our models. Resolution of an inductive model depends on the spatial properties of the integrated data: a raster data set can be generated that contains probability values and the reliability of the estimation. The information content of the predictive model is highly influenced by the resolution of the used digital terrain model (DTM): its derivatives (slope, aspect, topographic features) are important inputs of the modelling. The quality of the DTM is even more important in low-relief areas as microtopographic features may indicate archaeological sites. The conventional digital elevation models (SRTM, ASTER GDEM) provide unsatisfying resolution (both in horizontal and vertical senses) as they are rather digital surface models containing the vegetation and the built-up structures. Processed multiecho LiDAR data can be used instead. Our study area is situated in the foothills of the

  19. Path tortuosity in everyday movements of elderly persons increases fall prediction beyond knowledge of fall history, medication use, and standardized gait and balance assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kearns, William D; Fozard, James L; Becker, Marion; Jasiewicz, Jan M; Craighead, Jeffrey D; Holtsclaw, Lori; Dion, Charles

    2012-09-01

    We hypothesized that variability in voluntary movement paths of assisted living facility (ALF) residents would be greater in the week preceding a fall compared with residents who did not fall. Prospective, observational study using telesurveillance technology. Two ALFs. The sample consisted of 69 older ALF residents (53 female) aged 76.9 (SD ± 11.9 years). Daytime movement in ALF common use areas was automatically tracked using a commercially available ultra-wideband radio real-time location sensor network with a spatial resolution of approximately 20 cm. Movement path variability (tortuosity) was gauged using fractal dimension (fractal D). A logistic regression was performed predicting movement related falls from fractal D, presence of a fall in the prior year, psychoactive medication use, and movement path length. Fallers and non-fallers were also compared on activities of daily living requiring supervision or assistance, performance on standardized static and dynamic balance, and stride velocity assessments gathered at the start of a 1-year fall observation period. Fall risk due to cognitive deficit was assessed by the Mini Mental Status Examination (MMSE), and by clinical dementia diagnoses from participant's activities of daily living health record. Logistic regression analysis revealed odds of falling increased 2.548 (P = .021) for every 0.1 increase in fractal D, and having a fall in the prior year increased odds of falling by 7.36 (P = .006). There was a trend for longer movement paths to reduce the odds of falling (OR .976 P = .08) but it was not significant. Number of psychoactive medications did not contribute significantly to fall prediction in the model. Fallers had more variable stride-to-stride velocities and required more activities of daily living assistance. High fractal D levels can be detected using commercially available telesurveillance technologies and offers a new tool for health services administrators seeking to reduce falls at their

  20. Analysis of K-net and Kik-net data: implications for ground motion prediction - acceleration time histories, response spectra and nonlinear site response; Analyse des donnees accelerometriques de K-net et Kik-net: implications pour la prediction du mouvement sismique - accelerogrammes et spectres de reponse - et la prise en compte des effets de site non-lineaire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pousse, G

    2005-10-15

    This thesis intends to characterize ground motion during earthquake. This work is based on two Japanese networks. It deals with databases of shallow events, depth less than 25 km, with magnitude between 4.0 and 7.3. The analysis of K-net allows to compute a spectral ground motion prediction equation and to review the shape of the Eurocode 8 design spectra. We show the larger amplification at short period for Japanese data and bring in light the soil amplification that takes place at large period. In addition, we develop a new empirical model for simulating synthetic stochastic nonstationary acceleration time histories. By specifying magnitude, distance and site effect, this model allows to produce many time histories, that a seismic event is liable to produce at the place of interest. Furthermore, the study of near-field borehole records of the Kik-net allows to explore the validity domain of predictive equations and to explain what occurs by extrapolating ground motion predictions. Finally, we show that nonlinearity reduces the dispersion of ground motion at the surface. (author)

  1. Stress history of the Tharsis Region, Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Robert A.

    1987-01-01

    The Tharsis topographic rise of Mars is roughly 5000 km wide and 10 km high and is believed to have originated more than 3.5 BY ago. Within its boundaries lie the four largest volcanoes on the planet. It is also the locus of a series of fracture traces which extend over approximately a hemisphere. The events leading to the formation of the Tharsis region continue to generate debate. Three geophysical models of the formation of Tharsis are now in general contention and each of these models has been used to predict a characteristic stress-field. These models are: the volcanic construct model, the isostatic compensation model, and the lithospheric uplift model. Each has been used by its proponents to predict some of the features observed in the Tharsis region but none accurately accounts for all of the fracture features observed. This is due, in part, to the use of fractures too young to be directly related to the origin of Tharsis. To constrain the origin of Tharsis, as opposed to its later history, one should look for the oldest fractures related to Tharsis and compare these to the predictions made by the models. Mapping of old terrains in and around the Tharsis rise has revealed 175 hitherto unknown old fracture features.

  2. Stress history of the Tharsis Region, Mars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francis, R.A.

    1987-01-01

    The Tharsis topographic rise of Mars is roughly 5000 km wide and 10 km high and is believed to have originated more than 3.5 BY ago. Within its boundaries lie the four largest volcanoes on the planet. It is also the locus of a series of fracture traces which extend over approximately a hemisphere. The events leading to the formation of the Tharsis region continue to generate debate. Three geophysical models of the formation of Tharsis are now in general contention and each of these models has been used to predict a characteristic stress-field. These models are: the volcanic construct model, the isostatic compensation model, and the lithospheric uplift model. Each has been used by its proponents to predict some of the features observed in the Tharsis region but none accurately accounts for all of the fracture features observed. This is due, in part, to the use of fractures too young to be directly related to the origin of Tharsis. To constrain the origin of Tharsis, as opposed to its later history, one should look for the oldest fractures related to Tharsis and compare these to the predictions made by the models. Mapping of old terrains in and around the Tharsis rise has revealed 175 hitherto unknown old fracture features

  3. Host immune status affects maturation time in two nematode species--but not as predicted by a simple life-history model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guinnee, M A; Gemmill, A W; Chan, B H K; Viney, M E; Read, A F

    2003-11-01

    In theory, the age at which maturation occurs in parasitic nematodes is inversely related to pre-maturational mortality rate, and cross-species data on mammalian nematodes are consistent with this prediction. Immunity is a major source of parasite mortality and parasites stand to gain sizeable fitness benefits through short-term adjustments of maturation time in response to variation in immune-mediated mortality. The effects of thymus-dependent immune responses on maturation in the nematode parasites Strongyloides ratti and Nippostrongylus brasiliensis were investigated using congenitally thymus-deficient (nude) rats. As compared with worms in normal rats, reproductive maturity of parasites (presence of eggs in utero) in nude rats occurred later in S. ratti but earlier in N. brasiliensis. Immune-mediated differences in maturation time were not associated with differences in worm length. Thymus-dependent immunity had no effect on prematurational mortality. Results are discussed in relation to theoretical expectations and possible explanations for the observed patterns in parasite maturation.

  4. Business History as Cultural History

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunde Jørgensen, Ida

    The paper engages with the larger question of how cultural heritage becomes taken for granted and offers a complimentary view to the anthropological ʻCopenhagen School’ of business history, one that draws attention to the way corporate wealth directly and indirectly influences the culture available...

  5. River history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vita-Finzi, Claudio

    2012-05-13

    During the last half century, advances in geomorphology-abetted by conceptual and technical developments in geophysics, geochemistry, remote sensing, geodesy, computing and ecology-have enhanced the potential value of fluvial history for reconstructing erosional and depositional sequences on the Earth and on Mars and for evaluating climatic and tectonic changes, the impact of fluvial processes on human settlement and health, and the problems faced in managing unstable fluvial systems. This journal is © 2012 The Royal Society

  6. Environmental History

    OpenAIRE

    Kearns, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    There was a time when almost all Western geography could be termed environmental history. In the late nineteenth century, physical geographers explained landscapes by describing how they had evolved. Likewise, human geographers saw society as shaped by the directing hands of the environment. By the 1960s this had very much changed. Process studies shortened the temporal framework in geographical explanation and cut the cord between nature and society. Now, physical and human...

  7. The natural history of partial rotator cuff tear evaluated by MRI. Can we predict the prognosis of partial rotator cuff tear by MRI?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuura, Koumei

    2010-01-01

    The cause and progress of the tear in the title are not fully understood and its treatment varies dependently on the injured site, depth, accompanied disease and symptom, and imaging profile. The author classified the tears in 4 types in MRI findings, followed their temporal progression and clinical symptom, and found that this classification in MRI finding was helpful to predict the prognosis, which is described in this paper. Subjects are 47 shoulders of 45 patients (M19/F26, av. age 71.0 y) who underwent conservative treatment of the disease during the time May, 2003-Oct. 2008, periodical MRI (2.7 times in av.) for 18.5 mo in av. and follow-up diagnosis until 24.9 mo in av. MRI is conducted with the machine 1.0 T Siemens harmonicdome to acquire the fast spin echo T1, T2 weighted images, and short inversion time inversion recovery (STIR) coronal, axial and sagittal ones. Tears in MRI are classified in Type 1 (abnormal signal type) (25 shoulders), Type 2 (abnormal signal and swelling type) (7 shoulders), Type 3 (cut off end type) (10 shoulders) and Type 4 (tapered end type) (5 shoulders). The partial rotator cuff tear is suggested to be originated from the denaturation of the cuff with a subsequent certain injury or loading to become Type 1 to 2 and to progress to Type 3 to 4 by continuous acrominal impingement. It is suggested that at the first diagnosis the Type 1 does not have so much serious symptom, but which tends to last long while the symptom is serious in Type 2 and 3: the prognosis in Type 4 is good. (K.T)

  8. Diffusion archeology for diffusion progression history reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sefer, Emre; Kingsford, Carl

    2016-11-01

    Diffusion through graphs can be used to model many real-world processes, such as the spread of diseases, social network memes, computer viruses, or water contaminants. Often, a real-world diffusion cannot be directly observed while it is occurring - perhaps it is not noticed until some time has passed, continuous monitoring is too costly, or privacy concerns limit data access. This leads to the need to reconstruct how the present state of the diffusion came to be from partial diffusion data. Here, we tackle the problem of reconstructing a diffusion history from one or more snapshots of the diffusion state. This ability can be invaluable to learn when certain computer nodes are infected or which people are the initial disease spreaders to control future diffusions. We formulate this problem over discrete-time SEIRS-type diffusion models in terms of maximum likelihood. We design methods that are based on submodularity and a novel prize-collecting dominating-set vertex cover (PCDSVC) relaxation that can identify likely diffusion steps with some provable performance guarantees. Our methods are the first to be able to reconstruct complete diffusion histories accurately in real and simulated situations. As a special case, they can also identify the initial spreaders better than the existing methods for that problem. Our results for both meme and contaminant diffusion show that the partial diffusion data problem can be overcome with proper modeling and methods, and that hidden temporal characteristics of diffusion can be predicted from limited data.

  9. Can Measured Synergy Excitations Accurately Construct Unmeasured Muscle Excitations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianco, Nicholas A; Patten, Carolynn; Fregly, Benjamin J

    2018-01-01

    Accurate prediction of muscle and joint contact forces during human movement could improve treatment planning for disorders such as osteoarthritis, stroke, Parkinson's disease, and cerebral palsy. Recent studies suggest that muscle synergies, a low-dimensional representation of a large set of muscle electromyographic (EMG) signals (henceforth called "muscle excitations"), may reduce the redundancy of muscle excitation solutions predicted by optimization methods. This study explores the feasibility of using muscle synergy information extracted from eight muscle EMG signals (henceforth called "included" muscle excitations) to accurately construct muscle excitations from up to 16 additional EMG signals (henceforth called "excluded" muscle excitations). Using treadmill walking data collected at multiple speeds from two subjects (one healthy, one poststroke), we performed muscle synergy analysis on all possible subsets of eight included muscle excitations and evaluated how well the calculated time-varying synergy excitations could construct the remaining excluded muscle excitations (henceforth called "synergy extrapolation"). We found that some, but not all, eight-muscle subsets yielded synergy excitations that achieved >90% extrapolation variance accounted for (VAF). Using the top 10% of subsets, we developed muscle selection heuristics to identify included muscle combinations whose synergy excitations achieved high extrapolation accuracy. For 3, 4, and 5 synergies, these heuristics yielded extrapolation VAF values approximately 5% lower than corresponding reconstruction VAF values for each associated eight-muscle subset. These results suggest that synergy excitations obtained from experimentally measured muscle excitations can accurately construct unmeasured muscle excitations, which could help limit muscle excitations predicted by muscle force optimizations.

  10. Uncovering History for Future History Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Fritz

    2010-01-01

    The art of history teaching is at a crossroads. Recent scholarship focuses on the need to change the teaching of history so students can better learn history, and insists that history teachers must move beyond traditional structures and methods of teaching in order to improve their students' abilities to think with history. This article presents…

  11. Decoding Galactic Merger Histories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric F. Bell

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Galaxy mergers are expected to influence galaxy properties, yet measurements of individual merger histories are lacking. Models predict that merger histories can be measured using stellar halos and that these halos can be quantified using observations of resolved stars along their minor axis. Such observations reveal that Milky Way-mass galaxies have a wide range of stellar halo properties and show a correlation between their stellar halo masses and metallicities. This correlation agrees with merger-driven models where stellar halos are formed by satellite galaxy disruption. In these models, the largest accreted satellite dominates the stellar halo properties. Consequently, the observed diversity in the stellar halos of Milky Way-mass galaxies implies a large range in the masses of their largest merger partners. In particular, the Milky Way’s low mass halo implies an unusually quiet merger history. We used these measurements to seek predicted correlations between the bulge and central black hole (BH mass and the mass of the largest merger partner. We found no significant correlations: while some galaxies with large bulges and BHs have large stellar halos and thus experienced a major or minor merger, half have small stellar halos and never experienced a significant merger event. These results indicate that bulge and BH growth is not solely driven by merger-related processes.

  12. Quantum histories and their implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kent, A.

    2000-01-01

    Classical mechanics and standard Copenhagen quantum mechanics respect subspace implications. For example, if a particle is confined in a particular region R of space, then in these theories we can deduce that it is confined in regions containing R. However, subspace implications are generally violated by versions of quantum theory that assign probabilities to histories, such as the consistent histories approach. I define here a new criterion, ordered consistency, which refines the criterion of consistency and has the property that inferences made by ordered consistent sets do not violate subspace relations. This raises the question: do the operators defining our observations form an ordered consistent history? If so, ordered consistency defines a version of quantum theory with greater predictive power than the consistent histories formalism. If not, and our observations are defined by a non-ordered consistent quantum history, then subspace implications are not generally valid. (orig.)

  13. Cygnus History

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson, David J.; Gignac, Raymond E.; Good, Douglas E.; Hansen, Mark D.; Mitton, Charles V.; Nelson, Daniel S.; Ormond, Eugene C.; Cordova, Steve R.; Molina, Isidro; Smith, John R.; Rose, Evan A.

    2009-01-01

    The Cygnus Dual Beam Radiographic Facility consists of two identical radiographic sources: Cygnus 1 and Cygnus 2. This Radiographic Facility is located in an underground tunnel test area at the Nevada Test Site. The sources were developed to produce high-resolution images for dynamic plutonium experiments. This work will recount and discuss salient maintenance and operational issues encountered during the history of Cygnus. A brief description of Cygnus systems and rational for design selections will set the stage for this historical narrative. It is intended to highlight the team-derived solutions for technical problems encountered during extended periods of maintenance and operation. While many of the issues are typical to pulsed power systems, some of the solutions are unique. It is hoped that other source teams will benefit from this presentation, as well as other necessary disciplines (e.g., source users, system architects, facility designers and managers, funding managers, and team leaders)

  14. Environmental history

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pawson, Eric; Christensen, Andreas Aagaard

    2017-01-01

    Environmental history is an interdisciplinary pursuit that has developed as a form of conscience to counter an increasingly powerful, forward-looking liberal theory of the environment. It deals with the relations between environmental ideas and materialities, from the work of the geographers George...... Perkins Marsh, Carl Sauer, and Clarence Glacken, to more recent global-scale assessments of the impact of the “great acceleration” since 1950. Today’s “runaway world” paradoxically embraces risk management in an attempt to determine its own future whilst generating a whole new category of “manufactured...... risks”. These are exposed by environmental history’s focus on long-run analysis and its narrative form that identifies the stories that we tell ourselves about nature. How a better understanding of past environmental transformations helps to analyse society and agency, and what this can mean...

  15. Equipment upgrade - Accurate positioning of ion chambers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doane, Harry J.; Nelson, George W.

    1990-01-01

    Five adjustable clamps were made to firmly support and accurately position the ion Chambers, that provide signals to the power channels for the University of Arizona TRIGA reactor. The design requirements, fabrication procedure and installation are described

  16. Exploring the relationship between sequence similarity and accurate phylogenetic trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantarel, Brandi L; Morrison, Hilary G; Pearson, William

    2006-11-01

    We have characterized the relationship between accurate phylogenetic reconstruction and sequence similarity, testing whether high levels of sequence similarity can consistently produce accurate evolutionary trees. We generated protein families with known phylogenies using a modified version of the PAML/EVOLVER program that produces insertions and deletions as well as substitutions. Protein families were evolved over a range of 100-400 point accepted mutations; at these distances 63% of the families shared significant sequence similarity. Protein families were evolved using balanced and unbalanced trees, with ancient or recent radiations. In families sharing statistically significant similarity, about 60% of multiple sequence alignments were 95% identical to true alignments. To compare recovered topologies with true topologies, we used a score that reflects the fraction of clades that were correctly clustered. As expected, the accuracy of the phylogenies was greatest in the least divergent families. About 88% of phylogenies clustered over 80% of clades in families that shared significant sequence similarity, using Bayesian, parsimony, distance, and maximum likelihood methods. However, for protein families with short ancient branches (ancient radiation), only 30% of the most divergent (but statistically significant) families produced accurate phylogenies, and only about 70% of the second most highly conserved families, with median expectation values better than 10(-60), produced accurate trees. These values represent upper bounds on expected tree accuracy for sequences with a simple divergence history; proteins from 700 Giardia families, with a similar range of sequence similarities but considerably more gaps, produced much less accurate trees. For our simulated insertions and deletions, correct multiple sequence alignments did not perform much better than those produced by T-COFFEE, and including sequences with expressed sequence tag-like sequencing errors did not

  17. Public History

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Gouveia de Oliveira Rovai

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo tem como proposta apresentar o conceito e as práticas de História Pública como um novo posicionamento da ciência histórica em diálogo com profissionais da comunicação, no sentido de produzir e divulgar as experiências humanas. Para isso, discute-se a origem do conceito de História Pública e as diferentes formas de educação histórica que a utilização das novas tecnologias podem proporcionar (dentre elas a internet. Nesse sentido, convida-se o leitor para a reflexão sobre as possibilidades de publicização e de democratização do conhecimento histórico e da cultura, ampliando-se a oportunidade de produção, de divulgação e de acesso do público a diferentes formas experiências no tempo. O artigo também intenciona chamar atenção dos profissionais que lidam com a História e com a Comunicação para os perigos de produções exclusivamente submetidas ao mercado que transformam a popularização da História no reforço de estigmas culturais.   PALAVRAS-CHAVE: História Pública; Educação histórica e Comunicação; democratização e estigmatização.     ABSTRACT This article aims to present the concept and practices of Public History as a new positioning of historical science in dialogue with communication professionals, in the sense of producing and disseminating human experiences. For this, the origin of the concept of Public History and the different forms of historical education that the use of the new technologies can provide (among them the Internet is discussed. In this sense, the reader is invited to reflect on the possibilities of publicizing and democratizing historical knowledge and culture, expanding the opportunity for production, dissemination and public access to different forms of experience in time. The article also intends to draw attention from professionals dealing with History and Communication to the dangers of exclusively commercialized productions that transform the popularization

  18. Modeling effects of environmental change on wolf population dynamics, trait evolution, and life history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulson, Tim; MacNulty, Daniel R; Stahler, Daniel R; vonHoldt, Bridgett; Wayne, Robert K; Smith, Douglas W

    2011-12-02

    Environmental change has been observed to generate simultaneous responses in population dynamics, life history, gene frequencies, and morphology in a number of species. But how common are such eco-evolutionary responses to environmental change likely to be? Are they inevitable, or do they require a specific type of change? Can we accurately predict eco-evolutionary responses? We address these questions using theory and data from the study of Yellowstone wolves. We show that environmental change is expected to generate eco-evolutionary change, that changes in the average environment will affect wolves to a greater extent than changes in how variable it is, and that accurate prediction of the consequences of environmental change will probably prove elusive.

  19. Accurate thermoelastic tensor and acoustic velocities of NaCl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marcondes, Michel L., E-mail: michel@if.usp.br [Physics Institute, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, 05508-090 (Brazil); Chemical Engineering and Material Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States); Shukla, Gaurav, E-mail: shukla@physics.umn.edu [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States); Minnesota supercomputer Institute, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States); Silveira, Pedro da [Chemical Engineering and Material Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States); Wentzcovitch, Renata M., E-mail: wentz002@umn.edu [Chemical Engineering and Material Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States); Minnesota supercomputer Institute, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States)

    2015-12-15

    Despite the importance of thermoelastic properties of minerals in geology and geophysics, their measurement at high pressures and temperatures are still challenging. Thus, ab initio calculations are an essential tool for predicting these properties at extreme conditions. Owing to the approximate description of the exchange-correlation energy, approximations used in calculations of vibrational effects, and numerical/methodological approximations, these methods produce systematic deviations. Hybrid schemes combining experimental data and theoretical results have emerged as a way to reconcile available information and offer more reliable predictions at experimentally inaccessible thermodynamics conditions. Here we introduce a method to improve the calculated thermoelastic tensor by using highly accurate thermal equation of state (EoS). The corrective scheme is general, applicable to crystalline solids with any symmetry, and can produce accurate results at conditions where experimental data may not exist. We apply it to rock-salt-type NaCl, a material whose structural properties have been challenging to describe accurately by standard ab initio methods and whose acoustic/seismic properties are important for the gas and oil industry.

  20. Accurate lithography simulation model based on convolutional neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Yuki; Kimura, Taiki; Matsunawa, Tetsuaki; Nojima, Shigeki

    2017-07-01

    Lithography simulation is an essential technique for today's semiconductor manufacturing process. In order to calculate an entire chip in realistic time, compact resist model is commonly used. The model is established for faster calculation. To have accurate compact resist model, it is necessary to fix a complicated non-linear model function. However, it is difficult to decide an appropriate function manually because there are many options. This paper proposes a new compact resist model using CNN (Convolutional Neural Networks) which is one of deep learning techniques. CNN model makes it possible to determine an appropriate model function and achieve accurate simulation. Experimental results show CNN model can reduce CD prediction errors by 70% compared with the conventional model.

  1. The FLUKA code: An accurate simulation tool for particle therapy

    CERN Document Server

    Battistoni, Giuseppe; Böhlen, Till T; Cerutti, Francesco; Chin, Mary Pik Wai; Dos Santos Augusto, Ricardo M; Ferrari, Alfredo; Garcia Ortega, Pablo; Kozlowska, Wioletta S; Magro, Giuseppe; Mairani, Andrea; Parodi, Katia; Sala, Paola R; Schoofs, Philippe; Tessonnier, Thomas; Vlachoudis, Vasilis

    2016-01-01

    Monte Carlo (MC) codes are increasingly spreading in the hadrontherapy community due to their detailed description of radiation transport and interaction with matter. The suitability of a MC code for application to hadrontherapy demands accurate and reliable physical models capable of handling all components of the expected radiation field. This becomes extremely important for correctly performing not only physical but also biologically-based dose calculations, especially in cases where ions heavier than protons are involved. In addition, accurate prediction of emerging secondary radiation is of utmost importance in innovative areas of research aiming at in-vivo treatment verification. This contribution will address the recent developments of the FLUKA MC code and its practical applications in this field. Refinements of the FLUKA nuclear models in the therapeutic energy interval lead to an improved description of the mixed radiation field as shown in the presented benchmarks against experimental data with bot...

  2. Quantifying the life-history response to increased male exposure in female Drosophila melanogaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edward, Dominic A; Fricke, Claudia; Gerrard, Dave T; Chapman, Tracey

    2011-02-01

    Precise estimates of costs and benefits, the fitness economics, of mating are of key importance in understanding how selection shapes the coevolution of male and female mating traits. However, fitness is difficult to define and quantify. Here, we used a novel application of an established analytical technique to calculate individual- and population-based estimates of fitness-including those sensitive to the timing of reproduction-to measure the effects on females of increased exposure to males. Drosophila melanogaster females were exposed to high and low frequencies of contact with males, and life-history traits for each individual female were recorded. We then compared different fitness estimates to determine which of them best described the changes in life histories. We predicted that rate-sensitive estimates would be more accurate, as mating influences the rate of offspring production in this species. The results supported this prediction. Increased exposure to males led to significantly decreased fitness within declining but not stable or increasing populations. There was a net benefit of increased male exposure in expanding populations, despite a significant decrease in lifespan. The study shows how a more accurate description of fitness, and new insights can be achieved by considering individual life-history strategies within the context of population growth. © 2010 The Author(s). Evolution© 2010 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  3. More accurate picture of human body organs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolar, J.

    1985-01-01

    Computerized tomography and nucler magnetic resonance tomography (NMRT) are revolutionary contributions to radiodiagnosis because they allow to obtain a more accurate image of human body organs. The principles are described of both methods. Attention is mainly devoted to NMRT which has clinically only been used for three years. It does not burden the organism with ionizing radiation. (Ha)

  4. Fast and accurate methods for phylogenomic analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Warnow Tandy

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Species phylogenies are not estimated directly, but rather through phylogenetic analyses of different gene datasets. However, true gene trees can differ from the true species tree (and hence from one another due to biological processes such as horizontal gene transfer, incomplete lineage sorting, and gene duplication and loss, so that no single gene tree is a reliable estimate of the species tree. Several methods have been developed to estimate species trees from estimated gene trees, differing according to the specific algorithmic technique used and the biological model used to explain differences between species and gene trees. Relatively little is known about the relative performance of these methods. Results We report on a study evaluating several different methods for estimating species trees from sequence datasets, simulating sequence evolution under a complex model including indels (insertions and deletions, substitutions, and incomplete lineage sorting. The most important finding of our study is that some fast and simple methods are nearly as accurate as the most accurate methods, which employ sophisticated statistical methods and are computationally quite intensive. We also observe that methods that explicitly consider errors in the estimated gene trees produce more accurate trees than methods that assume the estimated gene trees are correct. Conclusions Our study shows that highly accurate estimations of species trees are achievable, even when gene trees differ from each other and from the species tree, and that these estimations can be obtained using fairly simple and computationally tractable methods.

  5. Accurate overlaying for mobile augmented reality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pasman, W; van der Schaaf, A; Lagendijk, RL; Jansen, F.W.

    1999-01-01

    Mobile augmented reality requires accurate alignment of virtual information with objects visible in the real world. We describe a system for mobile communications to be developed to meet these strict alignment criteria using a combination of computer vision. inertial tracking and low-latency

  6. Accurate activity recognition in a home setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kasteren, T.; Noulas, A.; Englebienne, G.; Kröse, B.

    2008-01-01

    A sensor system capable of automatically recognizing activities would allow many potential ubiquitous applications. In this paper, we present an easy to install sensor network and an accurate but inexpensive annotation method. A recorded dataset consisting of 28 days of sensor data and its

  7. Highly accurate surface maps from profilometer measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medicus, Kate M.; Nelson, Jessica D.; Mandina, Mike P.

    2013-04-01

    Many aspheres and free-form optical surfaces are measured using a single line trace profilometer which is limiting because accurate 3D corrections are not possible with the single trace. We show a method to produce an accurate fully 2.5D surface height map when measuring a surface with a profilometer using only 6 traces and without expensive hardware. The 6 traces are taken at varying angular positions of the lens, rotating the part between each trace. The output height map contains low form error only, the first 36 Zernikes. The accuracy of the height map is ±10% of the actual Zernike values and within ±3% of the actual peak to valley number. The calculated Zernike values are affected by errors in the angular positioning, by the centering of the lens, and to a small effect, choices made in the processing algorithm. We have found that the angular positioning of the part should be better than 1?, which is achievable with typical hardware. The centering of the lens is essential to achieving accurate measurements. The part must be centered to within 0.5% of the diameter to achieve accurate results. This value is achievable with care, with an indicator, but the part must be edged to a clean diameter.

  8. Interrupting History: Rethinking History Curriculum after "The End of History". Counterpoints: Studies in the Postmodern Theory of Education. Volume 404

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkes, Robert John

    2011-01-01

    Since the emergence of postmodern social theory, history has been haunted by predictions of its imminent end. Postmodernism has been accused of making historical research and writing untenable, encouraging the proliferation of revisionist histories, providing fertile ground for historical denial, and promoting the adoption of a mournful view of…

  9. A Comparison of the Updated Diamond-Forrester, CAD Consortium, and CONFIRM History-Based Risk Scores for Predicting Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease in Patients With Stable Chest Pain: The SCOT-HEART Coronary CTA Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baskaran, Lohendran; Danad, Ibrahim; Gransar, Heidi; Ó Hartaigh, Bríain; Schulman-Marcus, Joshua; Lin, Fay Y; Peña, Jessica M; Hunter, Amanda; Newby, David E; Adamson, Philip D; Min, James K

    2018-04-13

    This study sought to compare the performance of history-based risk scores in predicting obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) among patients with stable chest pain from the SCOT-HEART study. Risk scores for estimating pre-test probability of CAD are derived from referral-based populations with a high prevalence of disease. The generalizability of these scores to lower prevalence populations in the initial patient encounter for chest pain is uncertain. We compared 3 scores among patients with suspected CAD in the coronary computed tomographic angiography (CTA) randomized arm of the SCOT-HEART study for the outcome of obstructive CAD by coronary CTA: the updated Diamond-Forrester score (UDF), CAD Consortium clinical score (CAD2), and CONFIRM risk score (CRS). We tested calibration with goodness-of-fit, discrimination with area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC), and reclassification with net reclassification improvement (NRI) to identify low-risk patients. In 1,738 patients (58 ± 10 years and 44.0% women), overall calibration was best for UDF, with underestimation by CRS and CAD2. Discrimination by AUC was highest for CAD2 at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77 to 0.81) than for UDF (0.77 [95% CI: 0.74 to 0.79]) or CRS (0.75 [95% CI: 0.73 to 0.77]) (p CAD2 (NRI 0.31, 95% CI: 0.27 to 0.35) followed by CRS (NRI 0.21, 95% CI: 0.17 to 0.25) compared with UDF (p CAD and uniform CAD evaluation by coronary CTA, CAD2 provided the best discrimination and classification, despite overestimation of obstructive CAD as evaluated by coronary CTA. CRS exhibited intermediate performance followed by UDF for discrimination and reclassification. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. Rapid and accurate evaluation of the quality of commercial organic fertilizers using near infrared spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chang; Huang, Chichao; Qian, Jian; Xiao, Jian; Li, Huan; Wen, Yongli; He, Xinhua; Ran, Wei; Shen, Qirong; Yu, Guanghui

    2014-01-01

    The composting industry has been growing rapidly in China because of a boom in the animal industry. Therefore, a rapid and accurate assessment of the quality of commercial organic fertilizers is of the utmost importance. In this study, a novel technique that combines near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy with partial least squares (PLS) analysis is developed for rapidly and accurately assessing commercial organic fertilizers quality. A total of 104 commercial organic fertilizers were collected from full-scale compost factories in Jiangsu Province, east China. In general, the NIR-PLS technique showed accurate predictions of the total organic matter, water soluble organic nitrogen, pH, and germination index; less accurate results of the moisture, total nitrogen, and electrical conductivity; and the least accurate results for water soluble organic carbon. Our results suggested the combined NIR-PLS technique could be applied as a valuable tool to rapidly and accurately assess the quality of commercial organic fertilizers.

  11. Rapid and accurate evaluation of the quality of commercial organic fertilizers using near infrared spectroscopy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Wang

    Full Text Available The composting industry has been growing rapidly in China because of a boom in the animal industry. Therefore, a rapid and accurate assessment of the quality of commercial organic fertilizers is of the utmost importance. In this study, a novel technique that combines near infrared (NIR spectroscopy with partial least squares (PLS analysis is developed for rapidly and accurately assessing commercial organic fertilizers quality. A total of 104 commercial organic fertilizers were collected from full-scale compost factories in Jiangsu Province, east China. In general, the NIR-PLS technique showed accurate predictions of the total organic matter, water soluble organic nitrogen, pH, and germination index; less accurate results of the moisture, total nitrogen, and electrical conductivity; and the least accurate results for water soluble organic carbon. Our results suggested the combined NIR-PLS technique could be applied as a valuable tool to rapidly and accurately assess the quality of commercial organic fertilizers.

  12. Anatomically accurate, finite model eye for optical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, H L; Brennan, N A

    1997-08-01

    There is a need for a schematic eye that models vision accurately under various conditions such as refractive surgical procedures, contact lens and spectacle wear, and near vision. Here we propose a new model eye close to anatomical, biometric, and optical realities. This is a finite model with four aspheric refracting surfaces and a gradient-index lens. It has an equivalent power of 60.35 D and an axial length of 23.95 mm. The new model eye provides spherical aberration values within the limits of empirical results and predicts chromatic aberration for wavelengths between 380 and 750 nm. It provides a model for calculating optical transfer functions and predicting optical performance of the eye.

  13. Can blind persons accurately assess body size from the voice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisanski, Katarzyna; Oleszkiewicz, Anna; Sorokowska, Agnieszka

    2016-04-01

    Vocal tract resonances provide reliable information about a speaker's body size that human listeners use for biosocial judgements as well as speech recognition. Although humans can accurately assess men's relative body size from the voice alone, how this ability is acquired remains unknown. In this study, we test the prediction that accurate voice-based size estimation is possible without prior audiovisual experience linking low frequencies to large bodies. Ninety-one healthy congenitally or early blind, late blind and sighted adults (aged 20-65) participated in the study. On the basis of vowel sounds alone, participants assessed the relative body sizes of male pairs of varying heights. Accuracy of voice-based body size assessments significantly exceeded chance and did not differ among participants who were sighted, or congenitally blind or who had lost their sight later in life. Accuracy increased significantly with relative differences in physical height between men, suggesting that both blind and sighted participants used reliable vocal cues to size (i.e. vocal tract resonances). Our findings demonstrate that prior visual experience is not necessary for accurate body size estimation. This capacity, integral to both nonverbal communication and speech perception, may be present at birth or may generalize from broader cross-modal correspondences. © 2016 The Author(s).

  14. Celebrate Women's History.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Carolyn M.; Baradar, Mariam

    This teachers' guide to activities celebrating Women's History Month focuses on women whose important contributions have been omitted from history textbooks. Women's History Month grew from a 1977 celebration of Women's History Week and is intended to bring women's history into the school curriculum. International Women's Day, celebrated on March…

  15. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  16. The economic value of accurate wind power forecasting to utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, S J [Rutherford Appleton Lab., Oxfordshire (United Kingdom); Giebel, G; Joensen, A [Risoe National Lab., Dept. of Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics, Roskilde (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    With increasing penetrations of wind power, the need for accurate forecasting is becoming ever more important. Wind power is by its very nature intermittent. For utility schedulers this presents its own problems particularly when the penetration of wind power capacity in a grid reaches a significant level (>20%). However, using accurate forecasts of wind power at wind farm sites, schedulers are able to plan the operation of conventional power capacity to accommodate the fluctuating demands of consumers and wind farm output. The results of a study to assess the value of forecasting at several potential wind farm sites in the UK and in the US state of Iowa using the Reading University/Rutherford Appleton Laboratory National Grid Model (NGM) are presented. The results are assessed for different types of wind power forecasting, namely: persistence, optimised numerical weather prediction or perfect forecasting. In particular, it will shown how the NGM has been used to assess the value of numerical weather prediction forecasts from the Danish Meteorological Institute model, HIRLAM, and the US Nested Grid Model, which have been `site tailored` by the use of the linearized flow model WA{sup s}P and by various Model output Statistics (MOS) and autoregressive techniques. (au)

  17. Accurate guitar tuning by cochlear implant musicians.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Lu

    Full Text Available Modern cochlear implant (CI users understand speech but find difficulty in music appreciation due to poor pitch perception. Still, some deaf musicians continue to perform with their CI. Here we show unexpected results that CI musicians can reliably tune a guitar by CI alone and, under controlled conditions, match simultaneously presented tones to <0.5 Hz. One subject had normal contralateral hearing and produced more accurate tuning with CI than his normal ear. To understand these counterintuitive findings, we presented tones sequentially and found that tuning error was larger at ∼ 30 Hz for both subjects. A third subject, a non-musician CI user with normal contralateral hearing, showed similar trends in performance between CI and normal hearing ears but with less precision. This difference, along with electric analysis, showed that accurate tuning was achieved by listening to beats rather than discriminating pitch, effectively turning a spectral task into a temporal discrimination task.

  18. Accurate estimation of indoor travel times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prentow, Thor Siiger; Blunck, Henrik; Stisen, Allan

    2014-01-01

    The ability to accurately estimate indoor travel times is crucial for enabling improvements within application areas such as indoor navigation, logistics for mobile workers, and facility management. In this paper, we study the challenges inherent in indoor travel time estimation, and we propose...... the InTraTime method for accurately estimating indoor travel times via mining of historical and real-time indoor position traces. The method learns during operation both travel routes, travel times and their respective likelihood---both for routes traveled as well as for sub-routes thereof. InTraTime...... allows to specify temporal and other query parameters, such as time-of-day, day-of-week or the identity of the traveling individual. As input the method is designed to take generic position traces and is thus interoperable with a variety of indoor positioning systems. The method's advantages include...

  19. Statistics of particle time-temperature histories.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hewson, John C.; Lignell, David O.; Sun, Guangyuan

    2014-10-01

    Particles in non - isothermal turbulent flow are subject to a stochastic environment tha t produces a distribution of particle time - temperature histories. This distribution is a function of the dispersion of the non - isothermal (continuous) gas phase and the distribution of particles relative to that gas phase. In this work we extend the one - dimensional turbulence (ODT) model to predict the joint dispersion of a dispersed particle phase and a continuous phase. The ODT model predicts the turbulent evolution of continuous scalar fields with a model for the cascade of fluctuations to smaller sc ales (the 'triplet map') at a rate that is a function of the fully resolved one - dimens ional velocity field . Stochastic triplet maps also drive Lagrangian particle dispersion with finite Stokes number s including inertial and eddy trajectory - crossing effect s included. Two distinct approaches to this coupling between triplet maps and particle dispersion are developed and implemented along with a hybrid approach. An 'instantaneous' particle displacement model matches the tracer particle limit and provide s an accurate description of particle dispersion. A 'continuous' particle displacement m odel translates triplet maps into a continuous velocity field to which particles respond. Particles can alter the turbulence, and modifications to the stochastic rate expr ession are developed for two - way coupling between particles and the continuous phase. Each aspect of model development is evaluated in canonical flows (homogeneous turbulence, free - shear flows and wall - bounded flows) for which quality measurements are ava ilable. ODT simulations of non - isothermal flows provide statistics for particle heating. These simulations show the significance of accurately predicting the joint statistics of particle and fluid dispersion . Inhomogeneous turbulence coupled with the in fluence of the mean flow fields on particles of varying properties

  20. On accurate determination of contact angle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concus, P.; Finn, R.

    1992-01-01

    Methods are proposed that exploit a microgravity environment to obtain highly accurate measurement of contact angle. These methods, which are based on our earlier mathematical results, do not require detailed measurement of a liquid free-surface, as they incorporate discontinuous or nearly-discontinuous behavior of the liquid bulk in certain container geometries. Physical testing is planned in the forthcoming IML-2 space flight and in related preparatory ground-based experiments.

  1. Software Estimation: Developing an Accurate, Reliable Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    based and size-based estimates is able to accurately plan, launch, and execute on schedule. Bob Sinclair, NAWCWD Chris Rickets , NAWCWD Brad Hodgins...Office by Carnegie Mellon University. SMPSP and SMTSP are service marks of Carnegie Mellon University. 1. Rickets , Chris A, “A TSP Software Maintenance...Life Cycle”, CrossTalk, March, 2005. 2. Koch, Alan S, “TSP Can Be the Building blocks for CMMI”, CrossTalk, March, 2005. 3. Hodgins, Brad, Rickets

  2. Accurate multiplicity scaling in isotopically conjugate reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golokhvastov, A.I.

    1989-01-01

    The generation of accurate scaling of mutiplicity distributions is presented. The distributions of π - mesons (negative particles) and π + mesons in different nucleon-nucleon interactions (PP, NP and NN) are described by the same universal function Ψ(z) and the same energy dependence of the scale parameter which determines the stretching factor for the unit function Ψ(z) to obtain the desired multiplicity distribution. 29 refs.; 6 figs

  3. Accurate SHAPE-directed RNA secondary structure modeling, including pseudoknots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajdin, Christine E; Bellaousov, Stanislav; Huggins, Wayne; Leonard, Christopher W; Mathews, David H; Weeks, Kevin M

    2013-04-02

    A pseudoknot forms in an RNA when nucleotides in a loop pair with a region outside the helices that close the loop. Pseudoknots occur relatively rarely in RNA but are highly overrepresented in functionally critical motifs in large catalytic RNAs, in riboswitches, and in regulatory elements of viruses. Pseudoknots are usually excluded from RNA structure prediction algorithms. When included, these pairings are difficult to model accurately, especially in large RNAs, because allowing this structure dramatically increases the number of possible incorrect folds and because it is difficult to search the fold space for an optimal structure. We have developed a concise secondary structure modeling approach that combines SHAPE (selective 2'-hydroxyl acylation analyzed by primer extension) experimental chemical probing information and a simple, but robust, energy model for the entropic cost of single pseudoknot formation. Structures are predicted with iterative refinement, using a dynamic programming algorithm. This melded experimental and thermodynamic energy function predicted the secondary structures and the pseudoknots for a set of 21 challenging RNAs of known structure ranging in size from 34 to 530 nt. On average, 93% of known base pairs were predicted, and all pseudoknots in well-folded RNAs were identified.

  4. Stonehenge: A Simple and Accurate Predictor of Lunar Eclipses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Challener, S.

    1999-12-01

    Over the last century, much has been written about the astronomical significance of Stonehenge. The rage peaked in the mid to late 1960s when new computer technology enabled astronomers to make the first complete search for celestial alignments. Because there are hundreds of rocks or holes at Stonehenge and dozens of bright objects in the sky, the quest was fraught with obvious statistical problems. A storm of controversy followed and the subject nearly vanished from print. Only a handful of these alignments remain compelling. Today, few astronomers and still fewer archaeologists would argue that Stonehenge served primarily as an observatory. Instead, Stonehenge probably served as a sacred meeting place, which was consecrated by certain celestial events. These would include the sun's risings and settings at the solstices and possibly some lunar risings as well. I suggest that Stonehenge was also used to predict lunar eclipses. While Hawkins and Hoyle also suggested that Stonehenge was used in this way, their methods are complex and they make use of only early, minor, or outlying areas of Stonehenge. In contrast, I suggest a way that makes use of the imposing, central region of Stonehenge; the area built during the final phase of activity. To predict every lunar eclipse without predicting eclipses that do not occur, I use the less familiar lunar cycle of 47 lunar months. By moving markers about the Sarsen Circle, the Bluestone Circle, and the Bluestone Horseshoe, all umbral lunar eclipses can be predicted accurately.

  5. Predicting Customers Churn in a Relational Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalin CIMPOERU

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores how two main classical classification models work and generate predictions through a commercial solution of relational database management system (Microsoft SQL Server 2012. The aim of the paper is to accurately predict churn among a set of customers defined by various discrete and continuous variables, derived from three main data sources: the commercial transactions history; the users’ behavior or events happening on their computers; the specific identity information provided by the customers themselves. On a theoretical side, the paper presents the main concepts and ideas underlying the Decision Tree and Naïve Bayes classifiers and exemplifies some of them with actual hand-made calculations of the data being modeled by the software. On an analytical and practical side, the paper analyzes the graphs and tables generated by the classifying models and also reveal the main data insights. In the end, the classifiers’ accuracy is evaluated based on the test data method. The most accurate one is chosen for generating predictions on the customers’ data where the values of the response variable are not known.

  6. Robust and accurate vectorization of line drawings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilaire, Xavier; Tombre, Karl

    2006-06-01

    This paper presents a method for vectorizing the graphical parts of paper-based line drawings. The method consists of separating the input binary image into layers of homogeneous thickness, skeletonizing each layer, segmenting the skeleton by a method based on random sampling, and simplifying the result. The segmentation method is robust with a best bound of 50 percent noise reached for indefinitely long primitives. Accurate estimation of the recognized vector's parameters is enabled by explicitly computing their feasibility domains. Theoretical performance analysis and expression of the complexity of the segmentation method are derived. Experimental results and comparisons with other vectorization systems are also provided.

  7. The first accurate description of an aurora

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröder, Wilfried

    2006-12-01

    As technology has advanced, the scientific study of auroral phenomena has increased by leaps and bounds. A look back at the earliest descriptions of aurorae offers an interesting look into how medieval scholars viewed the subjects that we study.Although there are earlier fragmentary references in the literature, the first accurate description of the aurora borealis appears to be that published by the German Catholic scholar Konrad von Megenberg (1309-1374) in his book Das Buch der Natur (The Book of Nature). The book was written between 1349 and 1350.

  8. Accurate Charge Densities from Powder Diffraction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bindzus, Niels; Wahlberg, Nanna; Becker, Jacob

    Synchrotron powder X-ray diffraction has in recent years advanced to a level, where it has become realistic to probe extremely subtle electronic features. Compared to single-crystal diffraction, it may be superior for simple, high-symmetry crystals owing to negligible extinction effects and minimal...... peak overlap. Additionally, it offers the opportunity for collecting data on a single scale. For charge densities studies, the critical task is to recover accurate and bias-free structure factors from the diffraction pattern. This is the focal point of the present study, scrutinizing the performance...

  9. Arbitrarily accurate twin composite π -pulse sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torosov, Boyan T.; Vitanov, Nikolay V.

    2018-04-01

    We present three classes of symmetric broadband composite pulse sequences. The composite phases are given by analytic formulas (rational fractions of π ) valid for any number of constituent pulses. The transition probability is expressed by simple analytic formulas and the order of pulse area error compensation grows linearly with the number of pulses. Therefore, any desired compensation order can be produced by an appropriate composite sequence; in this sense, they are arbitrarily accurate. These composite pulses perform equally well as or better than previously published ones. Moreover, the current sequences are more flexible as they allow total pulse areas of arbitrary integer multiples of π .

  10. Systematization of Accurate Discrete Optimization Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Ovchinnikov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The object of study of this paper is to define accurate methods for solving combinatorial optimization problems of structural synthesis. The aim of the work is to systemize the exact methods of discrete optimization and define their applicability to solve practical problems.The article presents the analysis, generalization and systematization of classical methods and algorithms described in the educational and scientific literature.As a result of research a systematic presentation of combinatorial methods for discrete optimization described in various sources is given, their capabilities are described and properties of the tasks to be solved using the appropriate methods are specified.

  11. Long Range Aircraft Trajectory Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Magister, Tone

    2009-01-01

    The subject of the paper is the improvement of the aircraft future trajectory prediction accuracy for long-range airborne separation assurance. The strategic planning of safe aircraft flights and effective conflict avoidance tactics demand timely and accurate conflict detection based upon future four–dimensional airborne traffic situation prediction which is as accurate as each aircraft flight trajectory prediction. The improved kinematics model of aircraft relative flight considering flight ...

  12. Does labor market history matter?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lesner, Rune Vammen

    2014-01-01

    This paper finds that labor market history plays an important role in the Danish labor market both by directly affecting the transitions between labor market states and indirectly through the wage. When comparing the relative importance of different types of state dependence, it is found that occ......This paper finds that labor market history plays an important role in the Danish labor market both by directly affecting the transitions between labor market states and indirectly through the wage. When comparing the relative importance of different types of state dependence, it is found...... that occurrence dependence from non-employment states seems to have the strongest effect on the employment rate, while employment history is the main driver of state dependence in the wage. Predictions based on the estimated model reveal potential negative long-term effects from external employment shocks...

  13. How accurate are the weather forecasts for Bierun (southern Poland)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawor, J.

    2012-04-01

    Weather forecast accuracy has increased in recent times mainly thanks to significant development of numerical weather prediction models. Despite the improvements, the forecasts should be verified to control their quality. The evaluation of forecast accuracy can also be an interesting learning activity for students. It joins natural curiosity about everyday weather and scientific process skills: problem solving, database technologies, graph construction and graphical analysis. The examination of the weather forecasts has been taken by a group of 14-year-old students from Bierun (southern Poland). They participate in the GLOBE program to develop inquiry-based investigations of the local environment. For the atmospheric research the automatic weather station is used. The observed data were compared with corresponding forecasts produced by two numerical weather prediction models, i.e. COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) developed by Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, USA; it runs operationally at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling in Warsaw, Poland and COSMO (The Consortium for Small-scale Modelling) used by the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The analysed data included air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind chill and sea level pressure. The prediction periods from 0 to 24 hours (Day 1) and from 24 to 48 hours (Day 2) were considered. The verification statistics that are commonly used in meteorology have been applied: mean error, also known as bias, for continuous data and a 2x2 contingency table to get the hit rate and false alarm ratio for a few precipitation thresholds. The results of the aforementioned activity became an interesting basis for discussion. The most important topics are: 1) to what extent can we rely on the weather forecasts? 2) How accurate are the forecasts for two considered time ranges? 3) Which precipitation threshold is the most predictable? 4) Why

  14. Accurate shear measurement with faint sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Jun; Foucaud, Sebastien; Luo, Wentao

    2015-01-01

    For cosmic shear to become an accurate cosmological probe, systematic errors in the shear measurement method must be unambiguously identified and corrected for. Previous work of this series has demonstrated that cosmic shears can be measured accurately in Fourier space in the presence of background noise and finite pixel size, without assumptions on the morphologies of galaxy and PSF. The remaining major source of error is source Poisson noise, due to the finiteness of source photon number. This problem is particularly important for faint galaxies in space-based weak lensing measurements, and for ground-based images of short exposure times. In this work, we propose a simple and rigorous way of removing the shear bias from the source Poisson noise. Our noise treatment can be generalized for images made of multiple exposures through MultiDrizzle. This is demonstrated with the SDSS and COSMOS/ACS data. With a large ensemble of mock galaxy images of unrestricted morphologies, we show that our shear measurement method can achieve sub-percent level accuracy even for images of signal-to-noise ratio less than 5 in general, making it the most promising technique for cosmic shear measurement in the ongoing and upcoming large scale galaxy surveys

  15. How Accurately can we Calculate Thermal Systems?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullen, D; Blomquist, R N; Dean, C; Heinrichs, D; Kalugin, M A; Lee, M; Lee, Y; MacFarlan, R; Nagaya, Y; Trkov, A

    2004-01-01

    I would like to determine how accurately a variety of neutron transport code packages (code and cross section libraries) can calculate simple integral parameters, such as K eff , for systems that are sensitive to thermal neutron scattering. Since we will only consider theoretical systems, we cannot really determine absolute accuracy compared to any real system. Therefore rather than accuracy, it would be more precise to say that I would like to determine the spread in answers that we obtain from a variety of code packages. This spread should serve as an excellent indicator of how accurately we can really model and calculate such systems today. Hopefully, eventually this will lead to improvements in both our codes and the thermal scattering models that they use in the future. In order to accomplish this I propose a number of extremely simple systems that involve thermal neutron scattering that can be easily modeled and calculated by a variety of neutron transport codes. These are theoretical systems designed to emphasize the effects of thermal scattering, since that is what we are interested in studying. I have attempted to keep these systems very simple, and yet at the same time they include most, if not all, of the important thermal scattering effects encountered in a large, water-moderated, uranium fueled thermal system, i.e., our typical thermal reactors

  16. Accurate control testing for clay liner permeability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitchell, R J

    1991-08-01

    Two series of centrifuge tests were carried out to evaluate the use of centrifuge modelling as a method of accurate control testing of clay liner permeability. The first series used a large 3 m radius geotechnical centrifuge and the second series a small 0.5 m radius machine built specifically for research on clay liners. Two permeability cells were fabricated in order to provide direct data comparisons between the two methods of permeability testing. In both cases, the centrifuge method proved to be effective and efficient, and was found to be free of both the technical difficulties and leakage risks normally associated with laboratory permeability testing of fine grained soils. Two materials were tested, a consolidated kaolin clay having an average permeability coefficient of 1.2{times}10{sup -9} m/s and a compacted illite clay having a permeability coefficient of 2.0{times}10{sup -11} m/s. Four additional tests were carried out to demonstrate that the 0.5 m radius centrifuge could be used for linear performance modelling to evaluate factors such as volumetric water content, compaction method and density, leachate compatibility and other construction effects on liner leakage. The main advantages of centrifuge testing of clay liners are rapid and accurate evaluation of hydraulic properties and realistic stress modelling for performance evaluations. 8 refs., 12 figs., 7 tabs.

  17. NOAA History - Main Page

    Science.gov (United States)

    NOAA History Banner gold bar divider home - takes you to index page about the site contacts noaa americas science and service noaa legacy 1807 - 2007 NOAA History is an intrinsic part of the history of Initiative scroll divider More NOAA History from Around the Nation scroll divider drawing of a tornado NOAA

  18. Reinventing Entrepreneurial History

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wadhwani, R. Daniel; Lubinski, Christina

    2017-01-01

    Research on entrepreneurship remains fragmented in business history. A lack of conceptual clarity inhibits comparisons between studies and dialogue among scholars. To address these issues, we propose to reinvent entrepreneurial history as a research field. We define “new entrepreneurial history...... and reconfiguring resources, and legitimizing novelty. The article elaborates on the historiography, premises, and potential contributions of new entrepreneurial history....

  19. Kiropraktikkens historie i Danmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Per

    Bogen er den første samlede, forskningsbaserede fremstilling om kiropraktikkens danske historie. Den har udblik til kiropraktikkens historie i USA.......Bogen er den første samlede, forskningsbaserede fremstilling om kiropraktikkens danske historie. Den har udblik til kiropraktikkens historie i USA....

  20. History of Cardiology in India

    OpenAIRE

    Das, Mrinal Kanti; Kumar, Soumitra; Deb, Pradip Kumar; Mishra, Sundeep

    2015-01-01

    History as a science revolves around memories, travellers' tales, fables and chroniclers' stories, gossip and trans-telephonic conversations. Medicine itself as per the puritan's definition is a non-exact science because of the probability-predictability-sensitivity-specificity factors. Howsoever, the chronicles of Cardiology in India is quite interesting and intriguing. Heart and circulation was known to humankind from pre-Vedic era. Various therapeutics measures including the role of Yoga a...

  1. Accurate Energies and Structures for Large Water Clusters Using the X3LYP Hybrid Density Functional

    OpenAIRE

    Su, Julius T.; Xu, Xin; Goddard, William A., III

    2004-01-01

    We predict structures and energies of water clusters containing up to 19 waters with X3LYP, an extended hybrid density functional designed to describe noncovalently bound systems as accurately as covalent systems. Our work establishes X3LYP as the most practical ab initio method today for calculating accurate water cluster structures and energies. We compare X3LYP/aug-cc-pVTZ energies to the most accurate theoretical values available (n = 2−6, 8), MP2 with basis set superposition error (BSSE)...

  2. Data cache organization for accurate timing analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoeberl, Martin; Huber, Benedikt; Puffitsch, Wolfgang

    2013-01-01

    it is important to classify memory accesses as either cache hit or cache miss. The addresses of instruction fetches are known statically and static cache hit/miss classification is possible for the instruction cache. The access to data that is cached in the data cache is harder to predict statically. Several...

  3. Lessons learned from family history in ocular genetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marino, Meghan J

    2015-07-01

    Given the vast genetic and phenotypic heterogeneity seen in ocular genetic disorders, considering a patient's clinical phenotype in the context of the family history is essential. Clinicians can improve patient care by appropriately incorporating a patient's family history into their evaluation. Obtaining, reviewing, and accurately interpreting the pedigree are skills geneticists and genetic counselors possess. However, with the field of ophthalmic genetics vastly growing, it is becoming essential for ophthalmologists to understand the utility of the pedigree and develop their abilities in eliciting this information. By not considering a patient's clinical history in the context of the family history, diagnoses can be missed or inaccurate. The purpose of this review is to inform ophthalmologists on the importance of the family history and highlight how the pedigree can aid in establishing an accurate genetic diagnosis. This review also provides to ophthalmologists helpful tips on eliciting and interpreting a patient's family history.

  4. Accurate metacognition for visual sensory memory representations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandenbroucke, Annelinde R E; Sligte, Ilja G; Barrett, Adam B; Seth, Anil K; Fahrenfort, Johannes J; Lamme, Victor A F

    2014-04-01

    The capacity to attend to multiple objects in the visual field is limited. However, introspectively, people feel that they see the whole visual world at once. Some scholars suggest that this introspective feeling is based on short-lived sensory memory representations, whereas others argue that the feeling of seeing more than can be attended to is illusory. Here, we investigated this phenomenon by combining objective memory performance with subjective confidence ratings during a change-detection task. This allowed us to compute a measure of metacognition--the degree of knowledge that subjects have about the correctness of their decisions--for different stages of memory. We show that subjects store more objects in sensory memory than they can attend to but, at the same time, have similar metacognition for sensory memory and working memory representations. This suggests that these subjective impressions are not an illusion but accurate reflections of the richness of visual perception.

  5. An accurate nonlinear Monte Carlo collision operator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, W.X.; Okamoto, M.; Nakajima, N.; Murakami, S.

    1995-03-01

    A three dimensional nonlinear Monte Carlo collision model is developed based on Coulomb binary collisions with the emphasis both on the accuracy and implementation efficiency. The operator of simple form fulfills particle number, momentum and energy conservation laws, and is equivalent to exact Fokker-Planck operator by correctly reproducing the friction coefficient and diffusion tensor, in addition, can effectively assure small-angle collisions with a binary scattering angle distributed in a limited range near zero. Two highly vectorizable algorithms are designed for its fast implementation. Various test simulations regarding relaxation processes, electrical conductivity, etc. are carried out in velocity space. The test results, which is in good agreement with theory, and timing results on vector computers show that it is practically applicable. The operator may be used for accurately simulating collisional transport problems in magnetized and unmagnetized plasmas. (author)

  6. Apparatus for accurately measuring high temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, D.D.

    The present invention is a thermometer used for measuring furnace temperatures in the range of about 1800/sup 0/ to 2700/sup 0/C. The thermometer comprises a broadband multicolor thermal radiation sensor positioned to be in optical alignment with the end of a blackbody sight tube extending into the furnace. A valve-shutter arrangement is positioned between the radiation sensor and the sight tube and a chamber for containing a charge of high pressure gas is positioned between the valve-shutter arrangement and the radiation sensor. A momentary opening of the valve shutter arrangement allows a pulse of the high gas to purge the sight tube of air-borne thermal radiation contaminants which permits the radiation sensor to accurately measure the thermal radiation emanating from the end of the sight tube.

  7. Accurate Modeling Method for Cu Interconnect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Kenta; Kitahara, Hiroshi; Asai, Yoshihiko; Sakamoto, Hideo; Okada, Norio; Yasuda, Makoto; Oda, Noriaki; Sakurai, Michio; Hiroi, Masayuki; Takewaki, Toshiyuki; Ohnishi, Sadayuki; Iguchi, Manabu; Minda, Hiroyasu; Suzuki, Mieko

    This paper proposes an accurate modeling method of the copper interconnect cross-section in which the width and thickness dependence on layout patterns and density caused by processes (CMP, etching, sputtering, lithography, and so on) are fully, incorporated and universally expressed. In addition, we have developed specific test patterns for the model parameters extraction, and an efficient extraction flow. We have extracted the model parameters for 0.15μm CMOS using this method and confirmed that 10%τpd error normally observed with conventional LPE (Layout Parameters Extraction) was completely dissolved. Moreover, it is verified that the model can be applied to more advanced technologies (90nm, 65nm and 55nm CMOS). Since the interconnect delay variations due to the processes constitute a significant part of what have conventionally been treated as random variations, use of the proposed model could enable one to greatly narrow the guardbands required to guarantee a desired yield, thereby facilitating design closure.

  8. Fast and accurate determination of modularity and its effect size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Treviño, Santiago III; Nyberg, Amy; Bassler, Kevin E; Del Genio, Charo I

    2015-01-01

    We present a fast spectral algorithm for community detection in complex networks. Our method searches for the partition with the maximum value of the modularity via the interplay of several refinement steps that include both agglomeration and division. We validate the accuracy of the algorithm by applying it to several real-world benchmark networks. On all these, our algorithm performs as well or better than any other known polynomial scheme. This allows us to extensively study the modularity distribution in ensembles of Erdős–Rényi networks, producing theoretical predictions for means and variances inclusive of finite-size corrections. Our work provides a way to accurately estimate the effect size of modularity, providing a z-score measure of it and enabling a more informative comparison of networks with different numbers of nodes and links. (paper)

  9. Accurate location estimation of moving object In Wireless Sensor network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinay Bhaskar Semwal

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the central issues in wirless sensor networks is track the location, of moving object which have overhead of saving data, an accurate estimation of the target location of object with energy constraint .We do not have any mechanism which control and maintain data .The wireless communication bandwidth is also very limited. Some field which is using this technique are flood and typhoon detection, forest fire detection, temperature and humidity and ones we have these information use these information back to a central air conditioning and ventilation.In this research paper, we propose protocol based on the prediction and adaptive based algorithm which is using less sensor node reduced by an accurate estimation of the target location. We had shown that our tracking method performs well in terms of energy saving regardless of mobility pattern of the mobile target. We extends the life time of network with less sensor node. Once a new object is detected, a mobile agent will be initiated to track the roaming path of the object.

  10. AMID: Accurate Magnetic Indoor Localization Using Deep Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Namkyoung Lee

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Geomagnetic-based indoor positioning has drawn a great attention from academia and industry due to its advantage of being operable without infrastructure support and its reliable signal characteristics. However, it must overcome the problems of ambiguity that originate with the nature of geomagnetic data. Most studies manage this problem by incorporating particle filters along with inertial sensors. However, they cannot yield reliable positioning results because the inertial sensors in smartphones cannot precisely predict the movement of users. There have been attempts to recognize the magnetic sequence pattern, but these attempts are proven only in a one-dimensional space, because magnetic intensity fluctuates severely with even a slight change of locations. This paper proposes accurate magnetic indoor localization using deep learning (AMID, an indoor positioning system that recognizes magnetic sequence patterns using a deep neural network. Features are extracted from magnetic sequences, and then the deep neural network is used for classifying the sequences by patterns that are generated by nearby magnetic landmarks. Locations are estimated by detecting the landmarks. AMID manifested the proposed features and deep learning as an outstanding classifier, revealing the potential of accurate magnetic positioning with smartphone sensors alone. The landmark detection accuracy was over 80% in a two-dimensional environment.

  11. Approaching system equilibrium with accurate or not accurate feedback information in a two-route system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiao-mei; Xie, Dong-fan; Li, Qi

    2015-02-01

    With the development of intelligent transport system, advanced information feedback strategies have been developed to reduce traffic congestion and enhance the capacity. However, previous strategies provide accurate information to travelers and our simulation results show that accurate information brings negative effects, especially in delay case. Because travelers prefer to the best condition route with accurate information, and delayed information cannot reflect current traffic condition but past. Then travelers make wrong routing decisions, causing the decrease of the capacity and the increase of oscillations and the system deviating from the equilibrium. To avoid the negative effect, bounded rationality is taken into account by introducing a boundedly rational threshold BR. When difference between two routes is less than the BR, routes have equal probability to be chosen. The bounded rationality is helpful to improve the efficiency in terms of capacity, oscillation and the gap deviating from the system equilibrium.

  12. Validity of Combining History Elements and Physical Examination Tests to Diagnose Patellofemoral Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Décary, Simon; Frémont, Pierre; Pelletier, Bruno; Fallaha, Michel; Belzile, Sylvain; Martel-Pelletier, Johanne; Pelletier, Jean-Pierre; Feldman, Debbie; Sylvestre, Marie-Pierre; Vendittoli, Pascal-André; Desmeules, François

    2018-04-01

    To assess the validity of diagnostic clusters combining history elements and physical examination tests to diagnose or exclude patellofemoral pain (PFP). Prospective diagnostic study. Orthopedic outpatient clinics, family medicine clinics, and community-dwelling. Consecutive patients (N=279) consulting one of the participating orthopedic surgeons (n=3) or sport medicine physicians (n=2) for any knee complaint. Not applicable. History elements and physical examination tests were obtained by a trained physiotherapist blinded to the reference standard: a composite diagnosis including both physical examination tests and imaging results interpretation performed by an expert physician. Penalized logistic regression (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) was used to identify history elements and physical examination tests associated with the diagnosis of PFP, and recursive partitioning was used to develop diagnostic clusters. Diagnostic accuracy measures including sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratios with associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Two hundred seventy-nine participants were evaluated, and 75 had a diagnosis of PFP (26.9%). Different combinations of history elements and physical examination tests including the age of participants, knee pain location, difficulty descending stairs, patellar facet palpation, and passive knee extension range of motion were associated with a diagnosis of PFP and used in clusters to accurately discriminate between individuals with PFP and individuals without PFP. Two diagnostic clusters developed to confirm the presence of PFP yielded a positive likelihood ratio of 8.7 (95% CI, 5.2-14.6) and 3 clusters to exclude PFP yielded a negative likelihood ratio of .12 (95% CI, .06-.27). Diagnostic clusters combining common history elements and physical examination tests that can accurately diagnose or exclude PFP compared to various knee

  13. Predicting poverty and wealth from mobile phone metadata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumenstock, Joshua; Cadamuro, Gabriel; On, Robert

    2015-11-27

    Accurate and timely estimates of population characteristics are a critical input to social and economic research and policy. In industrialized economies, novel sources of data are enabling new approaches to demographic profiling, but in developing countries, fewer sources of big data exist. We show that an individual's past history of mobile phone use can be used to infer his or her socioeconomic status. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the predicted attributes of millions of individuals can, in turn, accurately reconstruct the distribution of wealth of an entire nation or to infer the asset distribution of microregions composed of just a few households. In resource-constrained environments where censuses and household surveys are rare, this approach creates an option for gathering localized and timely information at a fraction of the cost of traditional methods. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  14. Accurate measurements of neutron activation cross sections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Semkova, V.

    1999-01-01

    The applications of some recent achievements of neutron activation method on high intensity neutron sources are considered from the view point of associated errors of cross sections data for neutron induced reaction. The important corrections in -y-spectrometry insuring precise determination of the induced radioactivity, methods for accurate determination of the energy and flux density of neutrons, produced by different sources, and investigations of deuterium beam composition are considered as factors determining the precision of the experimental data. The influence of the ion beam composition on the mean energy of neutrons has been investigated by measurement of the energy of neutrons induced by different magnetically analysed deuterium ion groups. Zr/Nb method for experimental determination of the neutron energy in the 13-15 MeV energy range allows to measure energy of neutrons from D-T reaction with uncertainty of 50 keV. Flux density spectra from D(d,n) E d = 9.53 MeV and Be(d,n) E d = 9.72 MeV are measured by PHRS and foil activation method. Future applications of the activation method on NG-12 are discussed. (author)

  15. Implicit time accurate simulation of unsteady flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Buuren, René; Kuerten, Hans; Geurts, Bernard J.

    2001-03-01

    Implicit time integration was studied in the context of unsteady shock-boundary layer interaction flow. With an explicit second-order Runge-Kutta scheme, a reference solution to compare with the implicit second-order Crank-Nicolson scheme was determined. The time step in the explicit scheme is restricted by both temporal accuracy as well as stability requirements, whereas in the A-stable implicit scheme, the time step has to obey temporal resolution requirements and numerical convergence conditions. The non-linear discrete equations for each time step are solved iteratively by adding a pseudo-time derivative. The quasi-Newton approach is adopted and the linear systems that arise are approximately solved with a symmetric block Gauss-Seidel solver. As a guiding principle for properly setting numerical time integration parameters that yield an efficient time accurate capturing of the solution, the global error caused by the temporal integration is compared with the error resulting from the spatial discretization. Focus is on the sensitivity of properties of the solution in relation to the time step. Numerical simulations show that the time step needed for acceptable accuracy can be considerably larger than the explicit stability time step; typical ratios range from 20 to 80. At large time steps, convergence problems that are closely related to a highly complex structure of the basins of attraction of the iterative method may occur. Copyright

  16. A stiffly accurate integrator for elastodynamic problems

    KAUST Repository

    Michels, Dominik L.

    2017-07-21

    We present a new integration algorithm for the accurate and efficient solution of stiff elastodynamic problems governed by the second-order ordinary differential equations of structural mechanics. Current methods have the shortcoming that their performance is highly dependent on the numerical stiffness of the underlying system that often leads to unrealistic behavior or a significant loss of efficiency. To overcome these limitations, we present a new integration method which is based on a mathematical reformulation of the underlying differential equations, an exponential treatment of the full nonlinear forcing operator as opposed to more standard partially implicit or exponential approaches, and the utilization of the concept of stiff accuracy which ensures that the efficiency of the simulations is significantly less sensitive to increased stiffness. As a consequence, we are able to tremendously accelerate the simulation of stiff systems compared to established integrators and significantly increase the overall accuracy. The advantageous behavior of this approach is demonstrated on a broad spectrum of complex examples like deformable bodies, textiles, bristles, and human hair. Our easily parallelizable integrator enables more complex and realistic models to be explored in visual computing without compromising efficiency.

  17. Geodetic analysis of disputed accurate qibla direction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saksono, Tono; Fulazzaky, Mohamad Ali; Sari, Zamah

    2018-04-01

    Muslims perform the prayers facing towards the correct qibla direction would be the only one of the practical issues in linking theoretical studies with practice. The concept of facing towards the Kaaba in Mecca during the prayers has long been the source of controversy among the muslim communities to not only in poor and developing countries but also in developed countries. The aims of this study were to analyse the geodetic azimuths of qibla calculated using three different models of the Earth. The use of ellipsoidal model of the Earth could be the best method for determining the accurate direction of Kaaba from anywhere on the Earth's surface. A muslim cannot direct himself towards the qibla correctly if he cannot see the Kaaba due to setting out process and certain motions during the prayer this can significantly shift the qibla direction from the actual position of the Kaaba. The requirement of muslim prayed facing towards the Kaaba is more as spiritual prerequisite rather than physical evidence.

  18. Magnetic Resonance Imaging: An accurate diagnostic tool in the precise localization of penile fracture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mujeeb M Rahiman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An 18-year-old male presented with history and clinical findings suggestive of penile fracture. An MRI demonstrated disruption of the tunica albuginea and corpora cavernosa on the left dorso-lateral aspect, mid-shaft of penis with adjacent hematoma, and subcutaneous edema. At surgery, imaging findings were found to be accurate, and the penis was successfully repaired with minimal postoperative morbidity.

  19. Time scale controversy: Accurate orbital calibration of the early Paleogene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roehl, U.; Westerhold, T.; Laskar, J.

    2012-12-01

    Timing is crucial to understanding the causes and consequences of events in Earth history. The calibration of geological time relies heavily on the accuracy of radioisotopic and astronomical dating. Uncertainties in the computations of Earth's orbital parameters and in radioisotopic dating have hampered the construction of a reliable astronomically calibrated time scale beyond 40 Ma. Attempts to construct a robust astronomically tuned time scale for the early Paleogene by integrating radioisotopic and astronomical dating are only partially consistent. Here, using the new La2010 and La2011 orbital solutions, we present the first accurate astronomically calibrated time scale for the early Paleogene (47-65 Ma) uniquely based on astronomical tuning and thus independent of the radioisotopic determination of the Fish Canyon standard. Comparison with geological data confirms the stability of the new La2011 solution back to 54 Ma. Subsequent anchoring of floating chronologies to the La2011 solution using the very long eccentricity nodes provides an absolute age of 55.530 ± 0.05 Ma for the onset of the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), 54.850 ± 0.05 Ma for the early Eocene ash -17, and 65.250 ± 0.06 Ma for the K/Pg boundary. The new astrochronology presented here indicates that the intercalibration and synchronization of U/Pb and 40Ar/39Ar radioisotopic geochronology is much more challenging than previously thought.

  20. History of Bioterrorism: Botulism

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... is Doing Blog: Public Health Matters Video: "The History of Bioterrorism" Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir ... as bioterrorist weapons. Watch the Complete Program "The History of Bioterroism" (26 min 38 sec) Watch Specific ...

  1. History of Bioterrorism: Botulism

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... is Doing Blog: Public Health Matters Video: "The History of Bioterrorism" Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir ... as bioterrorist weapons. Watch the Complete Program "The History of Bioterroism" (26 min 38 sec) Watch Specific ...

  2. "Hillary - en god historie"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerre, Thomas Ærvold

    2007-01-01

    Anmeldelse af Carl Bernsteins Hillary Rodham Clinton og Michael Ehrenreichs Hillary - En amerikansk historie Udgivelsesdato: 15. november......Anmeldelse af Carl Bernsteins Hillary Rodham Clinton og Michael Ehrenreichs Hillary - En amerikansk historie Udgivelsesdato: 15. november...

  3. Highly Accurate Calculations of the Phase Diagram of Cold Lithium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulenburger, Luke; Baczewski, Andrew

    The phase diagram of lithium is particularly complicated, exhibiting many different solid phases under the modest application of pressure. Experimental efforts to identify these phases using diamond anvil cells have been complemented by ab initio theory, primarily using density functional theory (DFT). Due to the multiplicity of crystal structures whose enthalpy is nearly degenerate and the uncertainty introduced by density functional approximations, we apply the highly accurate many-body diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) method to the study of the solid phases at low temperature. These calculations span many different phases, including several with low symmetry, demonstrating the viability of DMC as a method for calculating phase diagrams for complex solids. Our results can be used as a benchmark to test the accuracy of various density functionals. This can strengthen confidence in DFT based predictions of more complex phenomena such as the anomalous melting behavior predicted for lithium at high pressures. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. DOE's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  4. Accurate line intensities of methane from first-principles calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikitin, Andrei V.; Rey, Michael; Tyuterev, Vladimir G.

    2017-10-01

    In this work, we report first-principle theoretical predictions of methane spectral line intensities that are competitive with (and complementary to) the best laboratory measurements. A detailed comparison with the most accurate data shows that discrepancies in integrated polyad intensities are in the range of 0.4%-2.3%. This corresponds to estimations of the best available accuracy in laboratory Fourier Transform spectra measurements for this quantity. For relatively isolated strong lines the individual intensity deviations are in the same range. A comparison with the most precise laser measurements of the multiplet intensities in the 2ν3 band gives an agreement within the experimental error margins (about 1%). This is achieved for the first time for five-atomic molecules. In the Supplementary Material we provide the lists of theoretical intensities at 269 K for over 5000 strongest transitions in the range below 6166 cm-1. The advantage of the described method is that this offers a possibility to generate fully assigned exhaustive line lists at various temperature conditions. Extensive calculations up to 12,000 cm-1 including high-T predictions will be made freely available through the TheoReTS information system (http://theorets.univ-reims.fr, http://theorets.tsu.ru) that contains ab initio born line lists and provides a user-friendly graphical interface for a fast simulation of the absorption cross-sections and radiance.

  5. Predicting scholars' scientific impact.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Mazloumian

    Full Text Available We tested the underlying assumption that citation counts are reliable predictors of future success, analyzing complete citation data on the careers of ~150,000 scientists. Our results show that i among all citation indicators, the annual citations at the time of prediction is the best predictor of future citations, ii future citations of a scientist's published papers can be predicted accurately (r(2 = 0.80 for a 1-year prediction, P<0.001 but iii future citations of future work are hardly predictable.

  6. Canadian petroleum history bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cass, D.

    2003-09-27

    The Petroleum History Bibliography includes a list of more than 2,000 publications that record the history of the Canadian petroleum industry. The list includes books, theses, films, audio tapes, published articles, company histories, biographies, autobiographies, fiction, poetry, humour, and an author index. It was created over a period of several years to help with projects at the Petroleum History Society. It is an ongoing piece of work, and as such, invites comments and additions.

  7. Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S

    2014-01-01

    The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zon