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Sample records for historical declination curve

  1. ROBUST DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutawanir Darwis

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Empirical decline curve analysis of oil production data gives reasonable answer in hyperbolic type curves situations; however the methodology has limitations in fitting real historical production data in present of unusual observations due to the effect of the treatment to the well in order to increase production capacity. The development ofrobust least squares offers new possibilities in better fitting production data using declinecurve analysis by down weighting the unusual observations. This paper proposes a robustleast squares fitting lmRobMM approach to estimate the decline rate of daily production data and compares the results with reservoir simulation results. For case study, we usethe oil production data at TBA Field West Java. The results demonstrated that theapproach is suitable for decline curve fitting and offers a new insight in decline curve analysis in the present of unusual observations.

  2. US Historic Declination Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This programs derives a table of secular change in magnetic declination for a specified point in the conterminous United States. It utilizes the USD polynomial and...

  3. Interpreting Gas Production Decline Curves By Combining Geometry and Topology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, R. P.; Hu, Q.

    2014-12-01

    Shale gas production forms an increasing fraction of domestic US energy supplies, but individual gas production wells show steep production declines. Better understanding of this production decline would allow better economic forecasting; better understanding of the reasons behind the decline would allow better production management. Yet despite these incentives, production declines curves remain poorly understood, and current analyses range from Arps' purely empirical equation to new sophisticated approaches requiring multiple unavailable parameters. Models often fail to capture salient features: for example, in log-log space many wells decline with an exponent markedly different from the -0.5 expected from diffusion, and often show a transition from one decline mode to another. We propose a new approach based on the assumption that the rate-limiting step is gas movement from the matrix to the induced fracture network. The matrix is represented as an assemblage of equivalent spheres (geometry), with low matrix pore connectivity (topology) that results in a distance-dependent accessible porosity profile given by percolation theory. The basic theory has just 2 parameters: the sphere size distribution (geometry), and the crossover distance (topology) that characterizes the porosity distribution. The theory is readily extended to include e.g. alternative geometries and bi-modal size distributions. Comparisons with historical data are promising.

  4. Decline curve based models for predicting natural gas well performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arash Kamari

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The productivity of a gas well declines over its production life as cannot cover economic policies. To overcome such problems, the production performance of gas wells should be predicted by applying reliable methods to analyse the decline trend. Therefore, reliable models are developed in this study on the basis of powerful artificial intelligence techniques viz. the artificial neural network (ANN modelling strategy, least square support vector machine (LSSVM approach, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, and decision tree (DT method for the prediction of cumulative gas production as well as initial decline rate multiplied by time as a function of the Arps' decline curve exponent and ratio of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate. It was concluded that the results obtained based on the models developed in current study are in satisfactory agreement with the actual gas well production data. Furthermore, the results of comparative study performed demonstrates that the LSSVM strategy is superior to the other models investigated for the prediction of both cumulative gas production, and initial decline rate multiplied by time.

  5. Historical amphibian declines and extinctions in Brazil linked to chytridiomycosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Tamilie; Becker, C Guilherme; Toledo, Luís Felipe

    2017-02-08

    The recent increase in emerging fungal diseases is causing unprecedented threats to biodiversity. The origin of spread of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ) is a matter of continued debate. To date, the historical amphibian declines in Brazil could not be attributed to chytridiomycosis; the high diversity of hosts coupled with the presence of several Bd lineages predating the reported declines raised the hypothesis that a hypervirulent Bd genotype spread from Brazil to other continents causing the recent global amphibian crisis. We tested for a spatio-temporal overlap between Bd and areas of historical amphibian population declines and extinctions in Brazil. A spatio-temporal convergence between Bd and declines would support the hypothesis that Brazilian amphibians were not adapted to Bd prior to the reported declines, thus weakening the hypothesis that Brazil was the global origin of Bd emergence. Alternatively, a lack of spatio-temporal association between Bd and frog declines would indicate an evolution of host resistance in Brazilian frogs predating Bd 's global emergence , further supporting Brazil as the potential origin of the Bd panzootic. Here, we Bd -screened over 30 000 museum-preserved tadpoles collected in Brazil between 1930 and 2015 and overlaid spatio-temporal Bd data with areas of historical amphibian declines. We detected an increase in the proportion of Bd -infected tadpoles during the peak of amphibian declines (1979-1987). We also found that clusters of Bd -positive samples spatio-temporally overlapped with most records of amphibian declines in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Our findings indicate that Brazil is post epizootic for chytridiomycosis and provide another piece to the puzzle to explain the origin of Bd globally. © 2017 The Author(s).

  6. Historical amphibian declines and extinctions in Brazil linked to chytridiomycosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Tamilie; Becker, C. Guilherme

    2017-01-01

    The recent increase in emerging fungal diseases is causing unprecedented threats to biodiversity. The origin of spread of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a matter of continued debate. To date, the historical amphibian declines in Brazil could not be attributed to chytridiomycosis; the high diversity of hosts coupled with the presence of several Bd lineages predating the reported declines raised the hypothesis that a hypervirulent Bd genotype spread from Brazil to other continents causing the recent global amphibian crisis. We tested for a spatio-temporal overlap between Bd and areas of historical amphibian population declines and extinctions in Brazil. A spatio-temporal convergence between Bd and declines would support the hypothesis that Brazilian amphibians were not adapted to Bd prior to the reported declines, thus weakening the hypothesis that Brazil was the global origin of Bd emergence. Alternatively, a lack of spatio-temporal association between Bd and frog declines would indicate an evolution of host resistance in Brazilian frogs predating Bd's global emergence, further supporting Brazil as the potential origin of the Bd panzootic. Here, we Bd-screened over 30 000 museum-preserved tadpoles collected in Brazil between 1930 and 2015 and overlaid spatio-temporal Bd data with areas of historical amphibian declines. We detected an increase in the proportion of Bd-infected tadpoles during the peak of amphibian declines (1979–1987). We also found that clusters of Bd-positive samples spatio-temporally overlapped with most records of amphibian declines in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Our findings indicate that Brazil is post epizootic for chytridiomycosis and provide another piece to the puzzle to explain the origin of Bd globally. PMID:28179514

  7. Decline Curve Based Models for Predicting Natural Gas Well Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Kamari, Arash; Mohammadi, Amir H.; Lee, Moonyong; Mahmood, Tariq; Bahadori, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    The productivity of a gas well declines over its production life as cannot cover economic policies. To overcome such problems, the production performance of gas wells should be predicted by applying reliable methods to analyse the decline trend. Therefore, reliable models are developed in this study on the basis of powerful artificial intelligence techniques viz. the artificial neural network (ANN) modelling strategy, least square support vector machine (LSSVM) approach, adaptive neuro-fuzzy ...

  8. Application of decline curve analysis to estimate recovery factors for carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahediesfanjani, Hossein

    2017-07-17

    IntroductionIn the decline curve analysis (DCA) method of estimating recoverable hydrocarbon volumes, the analyst uses historical production data from a well, lease, group of wells (or pattern), or reservoir and plots production rates against time or cumu­lative production for the analysis. The DCA of an individual well is founded on the same basis as the fluid-flow principles that are used for pressure-transient analysis of a single well in a reservoir domain and therefore can provide scientifically reasonable and accurate results. However, when used for a group of wells, a lease, or a reservoir, the DCA becomes more of an empirical method. Plots from the DCA reflect the reservoir response to the oil withdrawal (or production) under the prevailing operating and reservoir conditions, and they continue to be good tools for estimating recoverable hydrocarbon volumes and future production rates. For predicting the total recov­erable hydrocarbon volume, the DCA results can help the analyst to evaluate the reservoir performance under any of the three phases of reservoir productive life—primary, secondary (waterflood), or tertiary (enhanced oil recovery) phases—so long as the historical production data are sufficient to establish decline trends at the end of the three phases.

  9. Correlation between use time of machine and decline curve for emerging enterprise information systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yao-Chung; Lai, Chin-Feng; Chuang, Chi-Cheng; Hou, Cheng-Yu

    2018-04-01

    With the progress of science and technology, more and more machines are adpot to help human life better and more convenient. When the machines have been used for a longer period of time so that the machine components are getting old, the amount of power comsumption will increase and easily cause the machine to overheat. This also causes a waste of invisible resources. If the Internet of Everything (IoE) technologies are able to be applied into the enterprise information systems for monitoring the machines use time, it can not only make energy can be effectively used, but aslo create a safer living environment. To solve the above problem, the correlation predict model is established to collect the data of power consumption converted into power eigenvalues. This study takes the power eigenvalue as the independent variable and use time as the dependent variable in order to establish the decline curve. Ultimately, the scoring and estimation modules are employed to seek the best power eigenvalue as the independent variable. To predict use time, the correlation is discussed between the use time and the decline curve to improve the entire behavioural analysis of the facilitate recognition of the use time of machines.

  10. Reconstructing Historical Light Curves of Symbiotic Stars and Novae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurdana-Šepić R.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available We reconstructed photometric histories of symbiotic stars and novae from direct inspection and measurement of photographic plates preserved at historical archives. We have completed the digging of the rich Asiago archive, and have started working on the Harvard plate stack, while other plate collections should be added soon. For homogeneity, we use the same UBV RCIC photometric comparison sequences used in current CCD observations. This data harvest has permitted the discovery of past undetected outbursts and secular trends, or to derive previously unknown orbital periods and recurrence times, which are essential to constrain the nature of these capricious and variegated active binaries.

  11. Stage discharge curve for Guillemard Bridge streamflow sation based on rating curve method using historical flood event data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ros, F C; Sidek, L M; Desa, M N; Arifin, K; Tosaka, H

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the stage-discharge curves varies from water quality study, flood modelling study, can be used to project climate change scenarios and so on. As the bed of the river often changes due to the annual monsoon seasons that sometimes cause by massive floods, the capacity of the river will changed causing shifting controlled to happen. This study proposes to use the historical flood event data from 1960 to 2009 in calculating the stage-discharge curve of Guillemard Bridge located in Sg. Kelantan. Regression analysis was done to check the quality of the data and examine the correlation between the two variables, Q and H. The mean values of the two variables then were adopted to find the value of difference between zero gauge height and the level of zero flow, 'a', K and 'n' to fit into rating curve equation and finally plotting the stage-discharge rating curve. Regression analysis of the historical flood data indicate that 91 percent of the original uncertainty has been explained by the analysis with the standard error of 0.085.

  12. Historical Cost Curves for Hydrogen Masers and Cesium Beam Frequency and Timing Standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.; Moore, R. C.

    1985-01-01

    Historical cost curves were developed for hydrogen masers and cesium beam standards used for frequency and timing calibration in the Deep Space Network. These curves may be used to calculate the cost of future hydrogen masers or cesium beam standards in either future or current dollars. The cesium beam standards are decreasing in cost by about 2.3% per year since 1966, and hydrogen masers are decreasing by about 0.8% per year since 1978 relative to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration inflation index.

  13. [Historic record of Gastrotheca ovifera (Anura: Hemiphractidae): decline evidence in Venezuelan coastal cloud forests].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valera-Leal, Javier; Acevedo, Aldemar; Pérez-Sánchez, Antonio; Vega, Jorge; Manzanilla, Jesús

    2011-03-01

    G. ovifera is a marsupial frog of the cloud and riparian forest from Western and Litoral sections of the Venezuelan Cordillera de la Costa (820-2 000m). This amphibian is considered as an endangered species by the IUCN Species Red List, due to its population decline in pristine and well preserved environments. This conservation status is based on anecdotic interpretations. We collected disperse data from museum records (national and international) and explored the possible association between collection records and precipitation data available for the Henri Pittier National Park (PNHP). Likewise, we carried out a systematic population monitoring of G. ovifera in historic and additional localities among the cloud forest of Rancho Grande, PNHP. We found 106 individuals in 11 zoological collections deposited during 1929-2007. After an effort of 646 hours/person we did not detect G. ovifera individuals in the evaluated localities; as well as no statistical significant associations between the annual precipitation average and the historic records of the species during 1941-1997 period (r = -0.054, p = 0.820, n = 19). We discussed the distribution, fluctuation and population changes of this species, analyzing it conservation status.

  14. Production data from five major geothermal fields in Nevada analysed using a physiostatistical algorithm developed for oil and gas: temperature decline forecasts and type curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, H. A.; Golubkova, A.; Eklund, C.

    2015-12-01

    Nevada has the second largest output of geothermal energy in the United States (after California) with 14 major power plants producing over 425 megawatts of electricity meeting 7% of the state's total energy needs. A number of wells, particularly older ones, have shown significant temperature and pressure declines over their lifetimes, adversely affecting economic returns. Production declines are almost universal in the oil and gas (O&G) industry. BetaZi (BZ) is a proprietary algorithm which uses a physiostatistical model to forecast production from the past history of O&G wells and to generate "type curves" which are used to estimate the production of undrilled wells. Although BZ was designed and calibrated for O&G, it is a general purpose diffusion equation solver, capable of modeling complex fluid dynamics in multi-phase systems. In this pilot study, it is applied directly to the temperature data from five Nevada geothermal fields. With the data appropriately normalized, BZ is shown to accurately predict temperature declines. The figure shows several examples of BZ forecasts using historic data from Steamboat Hills field near Reno. BZ forecasts were made using temperature on a normalized scale (blue) with two years of data held out for blind testing (yellow). The forecast is returned in terms of percentiles of probability (red) with the median forecast marked (solid green). Actual production is expected to fall within the majority of the red bounds 80% of the time. Blind tests such as these are used to verify that the probabilistic forecast can be trusted. BZ is also used to compute and accurate type temperature profile for wells that have yet to be drilled. These forecasts can be combined with estimated costs to evaluate the economics and risks of a project or potential capital investment. It is remarkable that an algorithm developed for oil and gas can accurately predict temperature in geothermal wells without significant recasting.

  15. Validation and diagnostic accuracy of predictive curves for age-associated longitudinal cognitive decline in older adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernier, Patrick J.; Gourdeau, Christian; Carmichael, Pierre-Hugues; Beauchemin, Jean-Pierre; Verreault, René; Bouchard, Rémi W.; Kröger, Edeltraut; Laforce, Robert

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Mini-Mental State Examination continues to be used frequently to screen for cognitive impairment in older adults, but it remains unclear how to interpret changes in its score over time to distinguish age-associated cognitive decline from an early degenerative process. We aimed to generate cognitive charts for use in clinical practice for longitudinal evaluation of age-associated cognitive decline. METHODS: We used data from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging from 7569 participants aged 65 years or older who completed a Mini-Mental State Examination at baseline, and at 5 and 10 years later to develop a linear regression model for the Mini-Mental State Examination score as a function of age and education. Based on this model, we generated cognitive charts designed to optimize accuracy for distinguishing participants with dementia from healthy controls. We validated our model using a separate data set of 6501 participants from the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center’s Uniform Data Set. RESULTS: For baseline measurement, the cognitive charts had a sensitivity of 80% (95% confidence interval [CI] 75% to 84%) and a specificity of 89% (95% CI 88% to 90%) for distinguishing healthy controls from participants with dementia. Similar sensitivities and specificities were observed for a decline over time greater than 1 percentile zone from the first measurement. Results in the validation sample were comparable, albeit with lower sensitivities. Negative predictive value was 99%. INTERPRETATION: Our innovative model, which factors in age and education, showed validity and diagnostic accuracy for determining whether older patients show abnormal performance on serial Mini-Mental State Examination measurements. Similar to growth curves used in pediatrics, cognitive charts allow longitudinal cognitive evaluation and enable prompt initiation of investigation and treatment when appropriate. PMID:29203616

  16. Socioeconomic status and fertility decline: Insights from historical transitions in Europe and North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dribe, Martin; Breschi, Marco; Gagnon, Alain; Gauvreau, Danielle; Hanson, Heidi A.; Maloney, Thomas N.; Mazzoni, Stanislao; Molitoris, Joseph; Pozzi, Lucia; Smith, Ken R.; Vézina, Hélène

    2016-01-01

    We have good knowledge of the timing of the historical fertility transitions in different regions, but we know much less regarding specific features and causes. In this study, we used longitudinal micro-level data for five local populations in Europe and North America to study the relationship between socioeconomic status and fertility during the transition. Using the same analytical model and identical class scheme, we examined the development of socioeconomic differences in marital fertility and related it to common theories on fertility behaviour. Our results do not provide support for the hypothesis of universally high fertility among the upper classes in pre-transitional society but support the idea that they acted as forerunners in the transition by reducing their fertility before other groups. Farmers and unskilled workers were latest to start to limit their fertility. Apart from this regularity, the patterns of class differences in fertility varied significantly among populations. PMID:27884093

  17. Electiveness of photorepair, influence of dark-repair on shape of dose-response curves, and high-dose decline, in UV-induced colour mutations of Serratia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, R.W.

    1978-01-01

    Strain CV of Serratia marcescens mutates by UV with high frequency to 3 groups of mutants (w, h, s) differing in colour from the red wild-type. The mutational dose-response curve has a curvature corresponding to about 3 hits. It reaches a peak and declines at high doses. Inactivation curves have a broad shoulder and mostly, but not always, a break to a lesser slope at UV doses near the peak of mutations. Photo reactivation (PR) gives a dose reduction of about 2 for both inactivation and mutation including the break and peak. The dose curve with PR for w-mutations shows 1 hit-, the other types 2-hit curvature leading to a change of mutation spectrum with dose due to PR. The UV-sensitive mutant uvs21 of CV has a survival curve with a small shoulder and a long upward concavity without a break, and the mutation curve is of the one-hit type without a peak and decline. PR gives a dose reduction of 12 for inactivation and of 7.5 for mutation. The 3-hit mutation curve of CV is interpreted by assuming that 2 further hits are required to protect the 1-hit pre-mutations from being abolished by the repair lacking in uvs21. UV induction of SOS repair cannot be responsible for the 3-hit curvature because UVR of phages and induction of prophage are already saturated at rather low doses. As high-dose decline is not observed in uvs21, possibly the non-mutagenic repair lacking from uvs21 interferes with the mutation finishing processes at high doses in the repair-proficient strain CV. However, UV induction of this interference cannot be a one-hit process but requires a very large number of hits. (Auth.)

  18. Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline

    KAUST Repository

    Vignaud, Thomas M.

    2014-05-01

    This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks from the Gulf of Mexico with sharks from the Indo-Pacific. If mixing occurs between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, it is not sufficient to counter genetic drift. This suggests whale sharks are not all part of a single global metapopulation. The significant population expansion we found was indicated by both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA. The expansion may have happened during the Holocene, when tropical species could expand their range due to sea-level rise, eliminating dispersal barriers and increasing plankton productivity. However, the historic trend of population increase may have reversed recently. Declines in genetic diversity are found for 6 consecutive years at Ningaloo Reef in Australia. The declines in genetic diversity being seen now in Australia may be due to commercial-scale harvesting of whale sharks and collision with boats in past decades in other countries in the Indo-Pacific. The study findings have implications for models of population connectivity for whale sharks and advocate for continued focus on effective protection of the world\\'s largest fish at multiple spatial scales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vignaud, Thomas M; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Leblois, Raphael; Meekan, Mark G; Vázquez-Juárez, Ricardo; Ramírez-Macías, Dení; Pierce, Simon J; Rowat, David; Berumen, Michael L; Beeravolu, Champak; Baksay, Sandra; Planes, Serge

    2014-05-01

    This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks from the Gulf of Mexico with sharks from the Indo-Pacific. If mixing occurs between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, it is not sufficient to counter genetic drift. This suggests whale sharks are not all part of a single global metapopulation. The significant population expansion we found was indicated by both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA. The expansion may have happened during the Holocene, when tropical species could expand their range due to sea-level rise, eliminating dispersal barriers and increasing plankton productivity. However, the historic trend of population increase may have reversed recently. Declines in genetic diversity are found for 6 consecutive years at Ningaloo Reef in Australia. The declines in genetic diversity being seen now in Australia may be due to commercial-scale harvesting of whale sharks and collision with boats in past decades in other countries in the Indo-Pacific. The study findings have implications for models of population connectivity for whale sharks and advocate for continued focus on effective protection of the world's largest fish at multiple spatial scales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Historical and contemporary DNA indicate fisher decline and isolation occurred prior to the European settlement of California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jody M Tucker

    Full Text Available Establishing if species contractions were the result of natural phenomena or human induced landscape changes is essential for managing natural populations. Fishers (Martes pennanti in California occur in two geographically and genetically isolated populations in the northwestern mountains and southern Sierra Nevada. Their isolation is hypothesized to have resulted from a decline in abundance and distribution associated with European settlement in the 1800s. However, there is little evidence to establish that fisher occupied the area between the two extant populations at that time. We analyzed 10 microsatellite loci from 275 contemporary and 21 historical fisher samples (1880-1920 to evaluate the demographic history of fisher in California. We did not find any evidence of a recent (post-European bottleneck in the northwestern population. In the southern Sierra Nevada, genetic subdivision within the population strongly influenced bottleneck tests. After accounting for genetic subdivision, we found a bottleneck signal only in the northern and central portions of the southern Sierra Nevada, indicating that the southernmost tip of these mountains may have acted as a refugium for fisher during the anthropogenic changes of the late 19(th and early 20(th centuries. Using a coalescent-based Bayesian analysis, we detected a 90% decline in effective population size and dated the time of decline to over a thousand years ago. We hypothesize that fisher distribution in California contracted to the two current population areas pre-European settlement, and that portions of the southern Sierra Nevada subsequently experienced another more recent bottleneck post-European settlement.

  1. The implications of the historical decline in US energy intensity for long-run CO2 emission projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sue Wing, Ian; Eckaus, Richard S.

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes the influence of the long-run decline in US energy intensity on projections of energy use and carbon emissions to the year 2050. We build on our own recent work which decomposes changes in the aggregate US energy-GDP ratio into shifts in sectoral composition (structural change) and adjustments in the energy demand of individual industries (intensity change), and identifies the impact on the latter of price-induced substitution of variable inputs, shifts in the composition of capital and embodied and disembodied technical progress. We employ a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the US economy to analyze the implications of these findings for future energy use and carbon emissions. Comparison of the simulation results against projections of historical trends in GDP, energy use and emissions reveals that the range of values for the rate of autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) conventionally used in CGE models is consistent with the effects of structural changes at the sub-sector level, rather than disembodied technological change. Even so, our results suggest that US emissions may well grow faster in the future than in the recent past

  2. Assessment of blood lead level declines in an area of historical mining with a holistic remediation and abatement program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoof, Rosalind A; Johnson, Dina L; Handziuk, Emma R; Landingham, Cynthia Van; Feldpausch, Alma M; Gallagher, Alexa E; Dell, Linda D; Kephart, Amy

    2016-10-01

    Lead exposure and blood lead levels (BLLs) in the United States have declined dramatically since the 1970s as many widespread lead uses have been discontinued. Large scale mining and mineral processing represents an additional localized source of potential lead exposure in many historical mining communities, such as Butte, Montana. After 25 years of ongoing remediation efforts and a residential metals abatement program that includes blood lead monitoring of Butte children, examination of blood lead trends offers a unique opportunity to assess the effectiveness of Butte's lead source and exposure reduction measures. This study examined BLL trends in Butte children ages 1-5 (n= 2796) from 2003-2010 as compared to a reference dataset matched for similar demographic characteristics over the same period. Blood lead differences across Butte during the same period are also examined. Findings are interpreted with respect to effectiveness of remediation and other factors potentially contributing to ongoing exposure concerns. BLLs from Butte were compared with a reference dataset (n=2937) derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The reference dataset was initially matched for child age and sample dates. Additional demographic factors associated with higher BLLs were then evaluated. Weights were applied to make the reference dataset more consistent with the Butte dataset for the three factors that were most disparate (poverty-to-income ratio, house age, and race/ethnicity). A weighted linear mixed regression model showed Butte geometric mean BLLs were higher than reference BLLs for 2003-2004 (3.48vs. 2.05µg/dL), 2005-2006 (2.65vs. 1.80µg/dL), and 2007-2008 (2.2vs. 1.72µg/dL), but comparable for 2009-2010 (1.53vs. 1.51µg/dL). This trend suggests that, over time, the impact of other factors that may be associated with Butte BLLs has been reduced. Neighborhood differences were examined by dividing the Butte dataset into the older area called "Uptown

  3. Evaluating changes to reservoir rule curves using historical water-level data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mower, Ethan; Miranda, Leandro E.

    2013-01-01

    Flood control reservoirs are typically managed through rule curves (i.e. target water levels) which control the storage and release timing of flood waters. Changes to rule curves are often contemplated and requested by various user groups and management agencies with no information available about the actual flood risk of such requests. Methods of estimating flood risk in reservoirs are not easily available to those unfamiliar with hydrological models that track water movement through a river basin. We developed a quantile regression model that uses readily available daily water-level data to estimate risk of spilling. Our model provided a relatively simple process for estimating the maximum applicable water level under a specific flood risk for any day of the year. This water level represents an upper-limit umbrella under which water levels can be operated in a variety of ways. Our model allows the visualization of water-level management under a user-specified flood risk and provides a framework for incorporating the effect of a changing environment on water-level management in reservoirs, but is not designed to replace existing hydrological models. The model can improve communication and collaboration among agencies responsible for managing natural resources dependent on reservoir water levels.

  4. Canary in the coal mine: Historical oxygen decline in the Gulf of St. Lawrence due to large scale climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claret, M.; Galbraith, E. D.; Palter, J. B.; Gilbert, D.; Bianchi, D.; Dunne, J. P.

    2016-02-01

    The regional signature of anthropogenic climate change on the atmosphere and upper ocean is often difficult to discern from observational timeseries, dominated as they are by decadal climate variability. Here we argue that a long-term decline of dissolved oxygen concentrations observed in the Gulf of S. Lawrence (GoSL) is consistent with anthropogenic climate change. Oxygen concentrations in the GoSL have declined markedly since 1930 due primarily to an increase of oxygen-poor North Atlantic Central Waters relative to Labrador Current Waters (Gilbert et al. 2005). We compare these observations to a climate warming simulation using a very high-resolution global coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model. The numerical model (CM2.6), developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, is strongly eddying and includes a biogeochemical module with dissolved oxygen. The warming scenario shows that oxygen in the GoSL decreases and it is associated to changes in western boundary currents and wind patterns in the North Atlantic. We speculate that the large-scale changes behind the simulated decrease in GoSL oxygen have also been at play in the real world over the past century, although they are difficult to resolve in noisy atmospheric data.

  5. Experts correctly describe demography associated with historical decline of the endangered Indiana bat, but not recent period of stationarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Szymanski, Jennifer; Pruitt, Lori; Runge, Michael C.

    2017-01-01

    Demographic characteristics of bats are often insufficiently described for modeling populations. In data poor situations, experts are often relied upon for characterizing ecological systems. In concert with the development of a matrix model describing Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) demography, we elicited estimates for parameterizing this model from 12 experts. We conducted this elicitation in two stages, requesting expert values for 12 demographic rates. These rates were adult and juvenile seasonal (winter, summer, fall) survival rates, pup survival in fall, and propensity and success at breeding. Experts were most in agreement about adult fall survival (3% Coefficient of Variation) and least in agreement about propensity of juveniles to breed (37% CV). The experts showed greater concordance for adult ( mean CV, adult = 6.2%) than for juvenile parameters ( mean CV, juvenile = 16.4%), and slightly more agreement for survival (mean CV, survival = 9.8%) compared to reproductive rates ( mean CV, reproduction = 15.1%). However, survival and reproduction were negatively and positively biased, respectively, relative to a stationary dynamic. Despite the species exhibiting near stationary dynamics for two decades prior to the onset of a potential extinction-causing agent, white-nose syndrome, expert estimates indicated a population decline of -11% per year (95% CI = -2%, -20%); quasi-extinction was predicted within a century ( mean = 61 years to QE, range = 32, 97) by 10 of the 12 experts. Were we to use these expert estimates in our modeling efforts, we would have errantly trained our models to a rapidly declining demography asymptomatic of recent demographic behavior. While experts are sometimes the only source of information, a clear understanding of the temporal and spatial context of the information being elicited is necessary to guard against wayward predictions.

  6. The J-shaped Curve for Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Disease Risk: Historical Context and Recent Updates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Faisal; McEvoy, John W

    2017-08-01

    The definition and treatment of hypertension have both changed dramatically over the last century, with recent trials suggesting benefit for lower blood pressure (BP) targets than ever before considered. However, tempering the enthusiasm for more intensive BP targets are long-held concerns that BP reduction below a certain threshold may pose dangers, the so-called "J-curve." In this review, we summarize the evidence for a J-curve in the treatment of hypertension. The Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) reported that achieving a systolic BP target of 120 mmHg reduces cardiovascular disease in high-risk individuals, supporting more intensive BP reduction. However, contemporary observational studies consistently demonstrate a BP J-curve, the threshold of which is often close to the SPRINT target. Studies also suggest that the BP level of this J-curve may vary based on patient characteristics, including age and comorbidities. There is also more compelling evidence for the specific presence of a J-curve between diastolic BP and coronary events, in contrast to conflicting evidence of a J-curve with systolic BP and cardiovascular disease more generally. There is increased risk of coronary events below a diastolic BP of 60-70 mmHg. In comparison, the presence of a systolic J-curve is less clear and some persons at high risk may actually benefit from systolic levels down to 120 mmHg. Therefore, we suggest a personalized approach to BP management considering individual risks, benefits, and preferences when choosing therapeutic targets. Further, well-designed studies are required to support our suggestions and to define J-curve thresholds more clearly.

  7. The catastrophic decline of the Sumatran rhino (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis harrissoni in Sabah: Historic exploitation, reduced female reproductive performance and population viability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Kretzschmar

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The reasons for catastrophic declines of Sumatran rhinos are far from clear and data necessary to improve decisions for conservation management are often lacking. We reviewed literature and assembled a comprehensive data set on surveys of the Sumatran rhino subspecies (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis harrissoni in the Malaysian state of Sabah on Borneo to chart the historical development of the population in Sabah and its exploitation until the present day. We fitted resource selection functions to identify habitat features preferred by a remnant population of rhinos living in the Tabin Wildlife Reserve in Sabah, and ran a series of population viability analyses (PVAs to extract the key demographic parameters most likely to affect population dynamics. We show that as preferred habitat, the individuals in the reserve were most likely encountered in elevated areas away from roads, in close distance to mud-volcanoes, with a low presence of human trespassers and a wallow on site, and within a neighbourhood of dense forest and grassland patches preferably on Fluvisols and Acrisols. Our population viability analyses identified the percentage of breeding females and female lifetime reproductive period as the crucial parameters driving population dynamics, in combination with total protection even moderate improvements could elevate population viability substantially. The analysis also indicates that unrestrained hunting between 1930 and 1950 drastically reduced the historical rhino population in Sabah and that the remnant population could be rescued by combining the effort of total protection and stimulation of breeding activity. Based on our results, we recommend to translocate isolated reproductively healthy individuals to protected locations and to undertake measures to maximise conceptions, or running state-of-the-art reproductive management with assisted reproduction techniques. Our study demonstrates that a judicious combination of techniques can do

  8. Declination Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Declination is calculated using the current International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model. Declination is calculated using the current World Magnetic Model...

  9. Peak oil analyzed with a logistic function and idealized Hubbert curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallagher, Brian

    2011-01-01

    A logistic function is used to characterize peak and ultimate production of global crude oil and petroleum-derived liquid fuels. Annual oil production data were incrementally summed to construct a logistic curve in its initial phase. Using a curve-fitting approach, a population-growth logistic function was applied to complete the cumulative production curve. The simulated curve was then deconstructed into a set of annual oil production data producing an 'idealized' Hubbert curve. An idealized Hubbert curve (IHC) is defined as having properties of production data resulting from a constant growth-rate under fixed resource limits. An IHC represents a potential production curve constructed from cumulative production data and provides a new perspective for estimating peak production periods and remaining resources. The IHC model data show that idealized peak oil production occurred in 2009 at 83.2 Mb/d (30.4 Gb/y). IHC simulations of truncated historical oil production data produced similar results and indicate that this methodology can be useful as a prediction tool. - Research Highlights: →Global oil production data were analyzed by a simple curve fitting method. →Best fit-curve results were obtained using two logistic functions on select data. →A broad potential oil production peak is forecast for the years from 2004 to 2014. →Similar results were obtained using historical data from about 10 to 30 years ago. →Two potential oil production decline scenarios were presented and compared.

  10. Novel Method of Production Decline Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Shan; Lan, Yifei; He, Lei; Jiao, Yang; Wu, Yong

    2018-02-01

    ARPS decline curves is the most commonly used in oil and gas field due to its minimal data requirements and ease application. And prediction of production decline which is based on ARPS analysis rely on known decline type. However, when coefficient index are very approximate under different decline type, it is difficult to directly recognize decline trend of matched curves. Due to difficulties above, based on simulation results of multi-factor response experiments, a new dynamic decline prediction model is introduced with using multiple linear regression of influence factors. First of all, according to study of effect factors of production decline, interaction experimental schemes are designed. Based on simulated results, annual decline rate is predicted by decline model. Moreover, the new method is applied in A gas filed of Ordos Basin as example to illustrate reliability. The result commit that the new model can directly predict decline tendency without needing recognize decline style. From arithmetic aspect, it also take advantage of high veracity. Finally, the new method improves the evaluation method of gas well production decline in low permeability gas reservoir, which also provides technical support for further understanding of tight gas field development laws.

  11. Five decades on: Use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ella Clausius

    Full Text Available The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later.

  12. The evolving price of household LED lamps: Recent trends and historical comparisons for the US market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerke, Brian F.; Ngo, Allison T.; Alstone, Andrea L.; Fisseha, Kibret S.

    2014-10-14

    In recent years, household LED light bulbs (LED A lamps) have undergone a dramatic price decline. Since late 2011, we have been collecting data, on a weekly basis, for retail offerings of LED A lamps on the Internet. The resulting data set allows us to track the recent price decline in detail. LED A lamp prices declined roughly exponentially with time in 2011-2014, with decline rates of 28percent to 44percent per year depending on lumen output, and with higher-lumen lamps exhibiting more rapid price declines. By combining the Internet price data with publicly available lamp shipments indices for the US market, it is also possible to correlate LED A lamp prices against cumulative production, yielding an experience curve for LED A lamps. In 2012-2013, LED A lamp prices declined by 20-25percent for each doubling in cumulative shipments. Similar analysis of historical data for other lighting technologies reveals that LED prices have fallen significantly more rapidly with cumulative production than did their technological predecessors, which exhibited a historical decline of 14-15percent per doubling of production.

  13. Are our forests declining. Why

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leygonie, R.

    1991-01-01

    This article first presents the historical background of recent events popularized under the names: acid rains, forests declines. The first major crisis was soil and lake acidifications in Scandinavian countries, then a fast forest decay, first in Germany, in the early eighties, then in a number of European countries, including France. These phenomena were attributed to atmospheric pollutions, essentially acidic pollution. The consequences were drastic legislations in Germany, then the European Directive on large combustion plants (November 1988). Another consequence was the UNECE Convention on long range transport of pollutants (1979). Observations in the field on tree declines (loss of needles or leaves, abnormal yellowings, soil studies, etc.) and laboratory experiments showed that causes are very complex, involving the low quality of soils, abnormal droughts, presence of pollutants in atmosphere, mainly ozone [fr

  14. Historical perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landsberg, H. E.

    It was a pleasure to learn, from a recent (May 4) issue of Eos, of the formation of a permanent Committee on History of Geophysics. There is a dire need for reference material, books, and articles on geophysical history.Let me recommend to them that they take a good look at the Dictionary of the History of Science (W.F. Bynum, E.J. Browne, Roy Porter (Eds.), Princeton University Press, 494 pp., 1981). What follows is not a book review, although it may appear so. It is meant to be a challenge to place geophysics on the map in historical context. In this book, hydrology is dealt with in one sentence under the heading ‘cycle,’ geomagnetism under ‘declination and dip,’ and its history ends with Edward Sabine. Seismology appears under earthquakes. No important seismologist is mentioned. In the biographical index, Wiechert is included only for a contribution to physics. Where are Sir Harold Jeffreys, Galitzin, Gutenberg, Mohorovičić, Lehman, and many others? Meteorology ends with V. Bjerknes and Solberg; Köppen, Richardson, Rossby, and other notables [of] the last century do not seem to exist.

  15. Decline traffic information system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du Plessis, K [Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC), Sydney (Australia)

    2007-09-06

    BHP Billion (BHPB) Cannington has experienced problems in regards to their traffic flow in the decline at the mine. The problems related to reports on near misses of vehicles moving towards each other in the decline. The decline is also to narrow for trucks to pass each other and the operators need to be aware of oncoming traffic in the decline to ensure they could take early evasive steps to ensure the rules of right of way in the decline are adhered to. BHPB Cannington requested CSC to conduct a problem analysis and to provide a solutions proposal to Cannington. The solution was put forward as an augmentation of their current safety procedures used with in the decline. During this phase of the project CSC developed a solutions architecture which involved the use of Active (Radio Frequency Identification) RFID tagging which will enable vehicle movement tracking on a real time basis after which the appropriate traffic movement can be relayed to the operators in the decline. The primary objective of the DTIS is to provide accurate information of traffic movement in the decline and present that information to the operators of the decline IN THE DECLINE upon which they would make their decisions. (orig.)

  16. Modelling socio-metabolic transitions: The historical take-off, the acceleration of fossil fuel use, and the 1970s oil price shock - the first trigger of a future decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedenhofer, Dominik; Rovenskaya, Elena; Krausmann, Fridolin; Haas, Willi; Fischer-Kowalski, Marina

    2013-04-01

    By talking about socio-metabolic transitions, we talk about changes in the energy base of socio-economic systems, leading to fundamental changes in social and environmental relations. This refers to the historical shift from a biomass-based (agrarian) economy to a fossil fuel based (industrial) economy just as much as to a future shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy carriers. In our presentation, • We will first show that this pattern of transition can be identified for most high income industrial countries: the later the transition started, the faster it proceeded, and the turning point to stabilization of metabolic rates in all of them happened in the early 1970ies. Due to the inherent non-linearity of this process, two approaches will be aplied to estimate parameters for the starting point, transition speed and saturation level: firstly a combination of an expontential and a generalized logistic function and secondly a Gompertz function. For both an iterative test procedure is applied to find the global minimum of the residual error for the whole function and all its parameters. This theory-based approach allows us to apply a robust methodology across all cases, thereby yielding results which can be generalized. • Next, we will show that this was not just a "historical" socio-ecological transition, however. Currently, a substantial number of countries comprising more than half of the world's population are following a similar transitional pathway at an ever accelerating pace. Based on empirical data on physical resource use and the above sketched methodology, we can show that these so-called emerging economies are currently in the take-off or acceleration phase of the very same transition. • Apart from these "endogenous" processes of socio-metabolic transition, we will investigate the effect of external shocks and their impact on the dynamics of energy and materials use. The first such shock we will explore is the oil crisis of 1972 that possibly

  17. What Makes Clusters Decline?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Christian Richter; Park, Eun Kyung

    2015-01-01

    Most studies on regional clusters focus on identifying factors and processes that make clusters grow. However, sometimes technologies and market conditions suddenly shift, and clusters decline. This paper analyses the process of decline of the wireless communication cluster in Denmark. The longit...... but being quick to withdraw in times of crisis....

  18. State of pine decline in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lori Eckhardt; Mary Anne Sword Sayer; Don Imm

    2010-01-01

    Pine decline is an emerging forest health issue in the southeastern United States. Observations suggest pine decline is caused by environmental stress arising from competition, weather, insects and fungi, anthropogenic disturbances, and previous management. The problem is most severe for loblolly pine on sites that historically supported longleaf pine, are highly...

  19. Decline in breast cancer mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Njor, Sisse Helle; Schwartz, Walter; Blichert-Toft, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: When estimating the decline in breast cancer mortality attributable to screening, the challenge is to provide valid comparison groups and to distinguish the screening effect from other effects. In Funen, Denmark, multidisciplinary breast cancer management teams started before screening...... was introduced; both activities came later in the rest of Denmark. Because Denmark had national protocols for breast cancer treatment, but hardly any opportunistic screening, Funen formed a "natural experiment", providing valid comparison groups and enabling the separation of the effect of screening from other...... factors. METHODS: Using Poisson regression we compared the observed breast cancer mortality rate in Funen after implementation of screening with the expected rate without screening. The latter was estimated from breast cancer mortality in the rest of Denmark controlled for historical differences between...

  20. Lagrangian Curves on Spectral Curves of Monopoles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guilfoyle, Brendan; Khalid, Madeeha; Ramon Mari, Jose J.

    2010-01-01

    We study Lagrangian points on smooth holomorphic curves in TP 1 equipped with a natural neutral Kaehler structure, and prove that they must form real curves. By virtue of the identification of TP 1 with the space LE 3 of oriented affine lines in Euclidean 3-space, these Lagrangian curves give rise to ruled surfaces in E 3 , which we prove have zero Gauss curvature. Each ruled surface is shown to be the tangent lines to a curve in E 3 , called the edge of regression of the ruled surface. We give an alternative characterization of these curves as the points in E 3 where the number of oriented lines in the complex curve Σ that pass through the point is less than the degree of Σ. We then apply these results to the spectral curves of certain monopoles and construct the ruled surfaces and edges of regression generated by the Lagrangian curves.

  1. The fertility decline in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, W C; Harbison, S F

    1995-01-01

    In Sub-Saharan Africa Kenya is a prime example of a country experiencing a rapid decline in fertility and greater contraceptive prevalence. These changes have occurred since 1980 when fertility was high at 8.0 children per woman. In 1993 the total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.4, and the growth rate declined to about 2.0%. This transition is swifter than any country in contemporary Asia or historical Europe. The likely projection for Kenya is attainment of replacement level fertility during the 2020s and a leveling of population at about 100 million persons. Fertility has declined the most in urban areas and central and eastern regions. Bongaarts' proximate determinants (TFR, total marital fertility rate, total natural marital fertility rate, and total fecundity) are reduced to the proportion of currently married women using contraception, the proportion in lactational nonfecund status, and the proportion currently married. Actual fertility change is accounted for by total fertility change of 3.0 children. Lactational infecundability accounts for 0.5 potential births, and changes in marital fertility account for 1.0 reduced births per woman. About 70% of fertility reduction is accounted for by contraception and abortion. During 1977-78 80% of fertility control was due to lactational nonfecundity, 10% to nonmarriage, and 10% to contraception. In 1993 lactational nonfecundity accounted for 50% of the reduction, nonmarriage for 20%, and abortion about 30%. Future fertility is expected to be dependent on contraceptive prevalence. Kenya has experienced the Coale paradigm of preconditions necessary for demographic transition (willing, ready, and able). High fertility in Africa is not intractable. Creating the change in attitudes that leads to readiness is linked to education, health, and exposure to modernizing media and urban lifestyles. The public sector family planning program in Kenya has created the opportunity for access and availability of contraception. The key

  2. Backcasting the decline of a vulnerable Great Plains reproductive ecotype: identifying threats and conservation priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worthington, Thomas A.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Grabowski, Timothy B.; Mueller, Julia

    2014-01-01

    Conservation efforts for threatened or endangered species are challenging because the multi-scale factors that relate to their decline or inhibit their recovery are often unknown. To further exacerbate matters, the perceptions associated with the mechanisms of species decline are often viewed myopically rather than across the entire species range. We used over 80 years of fish presence data collected from the Great Plains and associated ecoregions of the United States, to investigate the relative influence of changing environmental factors on the historic and current truncated distributions of the Arkansas River shiner Notropis girardi. Arkansas River shiner represent a threatened reproductive ecotype considered especially well adapted to the harsh environmental extremes of the Great Plains. Historic (n = 163 records) and current (n = 47 records) species distribution models were constructed using a vector-based approach in MaxEnt by splitting the available data at a time when Arkansas River shiner dramatically declined. Discharge and stream order were significant predictors in both models; however, the shape of the relationship between the predictors and species presence varied between time periods. Drift distance (river fragment length available for ichthyoplankton downstream drift before meeting a barrier) was a more important predictor in the current model and indicated river segments 375–780 km had the highest probability of species presence. Performance for the historic and current models was high (area under the curve; AUC > 0.95); however, forecasting and backcasting to alternative time periods suggested less predictive power. Our results identify fragments that could be considered refuges for endemic plains fish species and we highlight significant environmental factors (e.g., discharge) that could be manipulated to aid recovery.

  3. Forest decline through radioactivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reichelt, G.; Kollert, R.

    1985-01-01

    Is more serious damage of forest observed in the vicinity of nuclear reactors. How are those decline patterns to be explained. Does the combined effect of radioactivity and different air pollutants (such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, oxidants etc.) have an influence in the decline of the forest. In what way do synergisms, i.e. mutually enhanced effects, participate. How does natural and artificial radioactivity affect the chemistry of air in the polluted atmosphere. What does this mean for the extension of nuclear energy, especially for the reprocessing plant planned. Damage in the forests near nuclear and industrial plants was mapped and the resulting hypotheses on possible emittors were statistically verified. Quantitative calculations as to the connection between nuclear energy and forest decline were carried through: they demand action. (orig./HP) [de

  4. Cluster Decline and Resilience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Christian Richter; Park, Eun Kyung

    Most studies on regional clusters focus on identifying factors and processes that make clusters grow. However, sometimes technologies and market conditions suddenly shift, and clusters decline. This paper analyses the process of decline of the wireless communication cluster in Denmark, 1963......-2011. Our longitudinal study reveals that technological lock-in and exit of key firms have contributed to impairment of the cluster’s resilience in adapting to disruptions. Entrepreneurship has a positive effect on cluster resilience, while multinational companies have contradicting effects by bringing...... in new resources to the cluster but being quick to withdraw in times of crisis....

  5. ECM using Edwards curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernstein, Daniel J.; Birkner, Peter; Lange, Tanja

    2013-01-01

    -arithmetic level are as follows: (1) use Edwards curves instead of Montgomery curves; (2) use extended Edwards coordinates; (3) use signed-sliding-window addition-subtraction chains; (4) batch primes to increase the window size; (5) choose curves with small parameters and base points; (6) choose curves with large...

  6. Problems of a Declining Hungarian Birth Rate: A Historical Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ildikó Szántó

    2015-01-01

    about 0.15 – 0.20 percent per year, and currently fertility in Hungary is one of the lowest in Europe. The Hungarian age structure will become increasingly problematic as the fertile age group of the population continues to shrink.

  7. Decline and infiltrated lung

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraldo Estrada, Horacio; Arboleda Casas, Felipe; Duarte, Monica; Triana Harker, Ricardo

    2001-01-01

    The paper describes the decline and infiltrated lung in a patient of 45 years, with diagnosis of arthritis rheumatoid from the 43 years, asymptomatic, without treatment, married, of the 15 to the 35 years of 3 to 10 cigarettes daily, she refers of 7 months of evolution episodes of moderate dyspnoea with exercises and dry cough with occasional mucous expectoration between others

  8. Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemet, Gregory F.

    2006-01-01

    The extent and timing of cost-reducing improvements in low-carbon energy systems are important sources of uncertainty in future levels of greenhouse-gas emissions. Models that assess the costs of climate change mitigation policy, and energy policy in general, rely heavily on learning curves to include technology dynamics. Historically, no energy technology has changed more dramatically than photovoltaics (PV), the cost of which has declined by a factor of nearly 100 since the 1950s. Which changes were most important in accounting for the cost reductions that have occurred over the past three decades? Are these results consistent with the notion that learning from experience drove technical change? In this paper, empirical data are assembled to populate a simple model identifying the most important factors affecting the cost of PV. The results indicate that learning from experience, the theoretical mechanism used to explain learning curves, only weakly explains change in the most important factors-plant size, module efficiency, and the cost of silicon. Ways in which the consideration of a broader set of influences, such as technical barriers, industry structure, and characteristics of demand, might be used to inform energy technology policy are discussed

  9. Contractibility of curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janusz Charatonik

    1991-11-01

    Full Text Available Results concerning contractibility of curves (equivalently: of dendroids are collected and discussed in the paper. Interrelations tetween various conditions which are either sufficient or necessary for a curve to be contractible are studied.

  10. Logistic curves, extraction costs and effective peak oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brecha, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Debates about the possibility of a near-term maximum in world oil production have become increasingly prominent over the past decade, with the focus often being on the quantification of geologically available and technologically recoverable amounts of oil in the ground. Economically, the important parameter is not a physical limit to resources in the ground, but whether market price signals and costs of extraction will indicate the efficiency of extracting conventional or nonconventional resources as opposed to making substitutions over time for other fuels and technologies. We present a hybrid approach to the peak-oil question with two models in which the use of logistic curves for cumulative production are supplemented with data on projected extraction costs and historical rates of capacity increase. While not denying the presence of large quantities of oil in the ground, even with foresight, rates of production of new nonconventional resources are unlikely to be sufficient to make up for declines in availability of conventional oil. Furthermore we show how the logistic-curve approach helps to naturally explain high oil prices even when there are significant quantities of low-cost oil yet to be extracted. - Highlights: ► Extraction cost information together with logistic curves to model oil extraction. ► Two models of extraction sequence for different oil resources. ► Importance of time-delay and extraction rate limits for new resources. ► Model results qualitatively reproduce observed extraction cost dynamics. ► Confirmation of “effective” peak oil, even though resources are in ground.

  11. Technological Progress and the Future of Kuznets Curve's

    OpenAIRE

    Shin, Inyong; Kim, Hyunho; Yamamura, Eiji

    2008-01-01

    We use OECD members' data to ascertain that new-born technological inventions increase the degree of inequality but that this declines as the technology disperses into the overall economy (e.g., Galor and Tsiddon, 1997; Weil, 2005). Therefore, we show explicitly that Kuznets curve does not converge to a single inverted U-curve but fluctuates through technological progress as a sine curve.

  12. Mangrove forest decline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malik, Abdul; Mertz, Ole; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2017-01-01

    Mangrove forests in the tropics and subtropics grow in saline sediments in coastal and estuarine environments. Preservation of mangrove forests is important for many reasons, including the prevention of coastal erosion and seawater intrusion; the provision of spawning, nursery, and feeding grounds...... of diverse marine biota; and for direct use (such as firewood, charcoal, and construction material)—all of which benefit the sustainability of local communities. However, for many mangrove areas of the world, unsustainable resource utilization and the profit orientation of communities have often led to rapid...... and severe mangrove loss with serious consequences. The mangrove forests of the Takalar District, South Sulawesi, are studied here as a case area that has suffered from degradation and declining spatial extent during recent decades. On the basis of a post-classification comparison of change detection from...

  13. Historical review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamora C, H.H.

    1989-01-01

    Short history of the ''Instituto de Asuntos Nucleares''. A short historical review about IAN is made: from 1956 when it was called Instituto Colombiano de Asuntos Nucleares, showing its scientific and technical development and the most important events that have occurred in the last 30 years. The people who had contributed to the progress of the institution are also considered, making emphasis in the important happenings that have guided the routes of the IAN

  14. JUMPING THE CURVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René Pellissier

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the notion ofjump ing the curve,following from Handy 's S-curve onto a new curve with new rules policies and procedures. . It claims that the curve does not generally lie in wait but has to be invented by leadership. The focus of this paper is the identification (mathematically and inferentially ofthat point in time, known as the cusp in catastrophe theory, when it is time to change - pro-actively, pre-actively or reactively. These three scenarios are addressed separately and discussed in terms ofthe relevance ofeach.

  15. Investigation of learning and experience curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krawiec, F.; Thornton, J.; Edesess, M.

    1980-04-01

    The applicability of learning and experience curves for predicting future costs of solar technologies is assessed, and the major test case is the production economics of heliostats. Alternative methods for estimating cost reductions in systems manufacture are discussed, and procedures for using learning and experience curves to predict costs are outlined. Because adequate production data often do not exist, production histories of analogous products/processes are analyzed and learning and aggregated cost curves for these surrogates estimated. If the surrogate learning curves apply, they can be used to estimate solar technology costs. The steps involved in generating these cost estimates are given. Second-generation glass-steel and inflated-bubble heliostat design concepts, developed by MDAC and GE, respectively, are described; a costing scenario for 25,000 units/yr is detailed; surrogates for cost analysis are chosen; learning and aggregate cost curves are estimated; and aggregate cost curves for the GE and MDAC designs are estimated. However, an approach that combines a neoclassical production function with a learning-by-doing hypothesis is needed to yield a cost relation compatible with the historical learning curve and the traditional cost function of economic theory.

  16. Tornado-Shaped Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, Sol Sáez; de la Rosa, Félix Martínez; Rojas, Sergio

    2017-01-01

    In Advanced Calculus, our students wonder if it is possible to graphically represent a tornado by means of a three-dimensional curve. In this paper, we show it is possible by providing the parametric equations of such tornado-shaped curves.

  17. Simulating Supernova Light Curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Even, Wesley Paul; Dolence, Joshua C.

    2016-01-01

    This report discusses supernova light simulations. A brief review of supernovae, basics of supernova light curves, simulation tools used at LANL, and supernova results are included. Further, it happens that many of the same methods used to generate simulated supernova light curves can also be used to model the emission from fireballs generated by explosions in the earth's atmosphere.

  18. Simulating Supernova Light Curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Even, Wesley Paul [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dolence, Joshua C. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-05

    This report discusses supernova light simulations. A brief review of supernovae, basics of supernova light curves, simulation tools used at LANL, and supernova results are included. Further, it happens that many of the same methods used to generate simulated supernova light curves can also be used to model the emission from fireballs generated by explosions in the earth’s atmosphere.

  19. Image scaling curve generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2012-01-01

    The present invention relates to a method of generating an image scaling curve, where local saliency is detected in a received image. The detected local saliency is then accumulated in the first direction. A final scaling curve is derived from the detected local saliency and the image is then

  20. Image scaling curve generation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2011-01-01

    The present invention relates to a method of generating an image scaling curve, where local saliency is detected in a received image. The detected local saliency is then accumulated in the first direction. A final scaling curve is derived from the detected local saliency and the image is then

  1. Tempo curves considered harmful

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Desain, P.; Honing, H.

    1993-01-01

    In the literature of musicology, computer music research and the psychology of music, timing or tempo measurements are mostly presented in the form of continuous curves. The notion of these tempo curves is dangerous, despite its widespread use, because it lulls its users into the false impression

  2. The curve shortening problem

    CERN Document Server

    Chou, Kai-Seng

    2001-01-01

    Although research in curve shortening flow has been very active for nearly 20 years, the results of those efforts have remained scattered throughout the literature. For the first time, The Curve Shortening Problem collects and illuminates those results in a comprehensive, rigorous, and self-contained account of the fundamental results.The authors present a complete treatment of the Gage-Hamilton theorem, a clear, detailed exposition of Grayson''s convexity theorem, a systematic discussion of invariant solutions, applications to the existence of simple closed geodesics on a surface, and a new, almost convexity theorem for the generalized curve shortening problem.Many questions regarding curve shortening remain outstanding. With its careful exposition and complete guide to the literature, The Curve Shortening Problem provides not only an outstanding starting point for graduate students and new investigations, but a superb reference that presents intriguing new results for those already active in the field.

  3. Learning Curve? Which One?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Prochno

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available Learning curves have been studied for a long time. These studies provided strong support to the hypothesis that, as organizations produce more of a product, unit costs of production decrease at a decreasing rate (see Argote, 1999 for a comprehensive review of learning curve studies. But the organizational mechanisms that lead to these results are still underexplored. We know some drivers of learning curves (ADLER; CLARK, 1991; LAPRE et al., 2000, but we still lack a more detailed view of the organizational processes behind those curves. Through an ethnographic study, I bring a comprehensive account of the first year of operations of a new automotive plant, describing what was taking place on in the assembly area during the most relevant shifts of the learning curve. The emphasis is then on how learning occurs in that setting. My analysis suggests that the overall learning curve is in fact the result of an integration process that puts together several individual ongoing learning curves in different areas throughout the organization. In the end, I propose a model to understand the evolution of these learning processes and their supporting organizational mechanisms.

  4. Global experience curves for wind farms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Junginger, M.; Faaij, A.; Turkenburg, W.C.

    2005-01-01

    In order to forecast the technological development and cost of wind turbines and the production costs of wind electricity, frequent use is made of the so-called experience curve concept. Experience curves of wind turbines are generally based on data describing the development of national markets, which cause a number of problems when applied for global assessments. To analyze global wind energy price development more adequately, we compose a global experience curve. First, underlying factors for past and potential future price reductions of wind turbines are analyzed. Also possible implications and pitfalls when applying the experience curve methodology are assessed. Second, we present and discuss a new approach of establishing a global experience curve and thus a global progress ratio for the investment cost of wind farms. Results show that global progress ratios for wind farms may lie between 77% and 85% (with an average of 81%), which is significantly more optimistic than progress ratios applied in most current scenario studies and integrated assessment models. While the findings are based on a limited amount of data, they may indicate faster price reduction opportunities than so far assumed. With this global experience curve we aim to improve the reliability of describing the speed with which global costs of wind power may decline

  5. The crime kuznets curve

    OpenAIRE

    Buonanno, Paolo; Fergusson, Leopoldo; Vargas, Juan Fernando

    2014-01-01

    We document the existence of a Crime Kuznets Curve in US states since the 1970s. As income levels have risen, crime has followed an inverted U-shaped pattern, first increasing and then dropping. The Crime Kuznets Curve is not explained by income inequality. In fact, we show that during the sample period inequality has risen monotonically with income, ruling out the traditional Kuznets Curve. Our finding is robust to adding a large set of controls that are used in the literature to explain the...

  6. Updated Hubbert curves analyze world oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanhoe, L.F.

    1996-01-01

    The question is not whether, but when, world crude oil production will start to decline, ushering in the permanent oil shock era. While global information for predicting this event is not so straightforward as the data M. King Hubbert used in creating his famous Hubbert Curve that predicted the US (Lower 48 states, or US/48) 1970 oil production peak, there are strong indications that most of the world's large exploration targets have now been found. Meanwhile, the earth's population is exploding along with the oil needs of Asia's developing nations. This article reviews Hubbert's original analyses on oil discovery and production curves for the US/48 and projects his proven methodology onto global oil discoveries and production as of 1992. The world's oil discovery curve peaked in 1962, and thence declined, as a Hubbert Curve predicts. However, global production was restricted after the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Otherwise, world production would have peaked in the mid-1990s. Two graphs show alternate versions of future global oil production

  7. Bond yield curve construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kožul Nataša

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the broadest sense, yield curve indicates the market's view of the evolution of interest rates over time. However, given that cost of borrowing it closely linked to creditworthiness (ability to repay, different yield curves will apply to different currencies, market sectors, or even individual issuers. As government borrowing is indicative of interest rate levels available to other market players in a particular country, and considering that bond issuance still remains the dominant form of sovereign debt, this paper describes yield curve construction using bonds. The relationship between zero-coupon yield, par yield and yield to maturity is given and their usage in determining curve discount factors is described. Their usage in deriving forward rates and pricing related derivative instruments is also discussed.

  8. SRHA calibration curve

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — an UV calibration curve for SRHA quantitation. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Chang, X., and D. Bouchard. Surfactant-Wrapped Multiwalled...

  9. Bragg Curve Spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruhn, C.R.

    1981-05-01

    An alternative utilization is presented for the gaseous ionization chamber in the detection of energetic heavy ions, which is called Bragg Curve Spectroscopy (BCS). Conceptually, BCS involves using the maximum data available from the Bragg curve of the stopping heavy ion (HI) for purposes of identifying the particle and measuring its energy. A detector has been designed that measures the Bragg curve with high precision. From the Bragg curve the range from the length of the track, the total energy from the integral of the specific ionization over the track, the dE/dx from the specific ionization at the beginning of the track, and the Bragg peak from the maximum of the specific ionization of the HI are determined. This last signal measures the atomic number, Z, of the HI unambiguously

  10. Power Curve Measurements FGW

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Georgieva Yankova, Ginka; Federici, Paolo

    This report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given turbine in a chosen period. The measurements are carried out in accordance to IEC 61400-12-1 Ed. 1 and FGW Teil 2.......This report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given turbine in a chosen period. The measurements are carried out in accordance to IEC 61400-12-1 Ed. 1 and FGW Teil 2....

  11. Curves and Abelian varieties

    CERN Document Server

    Alexeev, Valery; Clemens, C Herbert; Beauville, Arnaud

    2008-01-01

    This book is devoted to recent progress in the study of curves and abelian varieties. It discusses both classical aspects of this deep and beautiful subject as well as two important new developments, tropical geometry and the theory of log schemes. In addition to original research articles, this book contains three surveys devoted to singularities of theta divisors, of compactified Jacobians of singular curves, and of "strange duality" among moduli spaces of vector bundles on algebraic varieties.

  12. Mobility decline in old age

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rantakokko, Merja; Mänty, Minna Regina; Rantanen, Taina

    2013-01-01

    Mobility is important for community independence. With increasing age, underlying pathologies, genetic vulnerabilities, physiological and sensory impairments, and environmental barriers increase the risk for mobility decline. Understanding how mobility declines is paramount to finding ways...... to promote mobility in old age....

  13. Additional pest surveyed: hickory decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer Juzwik; Ji-Hyun. Park

    2011-01-01

    A five year investigation of the cause of rapid crown decline and mortality of bitternut hickory was concluded in September 2011. Results of a series of related studies found that multiple cankers and xylem (the water conducting tissue) dysfunction caused by Ceratocystis smalleyi are correlated with rapid crown decline typical of a limited vascular...

  14. Historical prologue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, D.; Bethe, H.A.; Blair, B.G.; Bracken, P.; Carter, A.B.; Dickinson, H.; Garwin, R.L.; Holloway, D.; Kendall, H.W.

    1988-01-01

    The organizations and machines engaged in a severe nuclear crisis would be its tangible and partially quantifiable factors. For that reason they often dominate our thinking about superpower confrontations. Military organizations, however, are not automatons that can run amok on their own. The perceptions of leaders and populations propel the course of events, and their mindsets are shaped by what experience, history, and myth claim to say about war. Since there has never been combat between nuclear-armed states, it is debatable whether the past has any relevance to what we now face. But the part is all we have to go on. Thus soldiers and statesmen are still haunted by the manner in which this century's two great wars began, and the past thereby influences the thoughts that lead to weapons, to military plans, and to decisions that could turn peace into war. It is therefore essential to have some appreciation for the historical roots that nourish our expectations about international conflict. This paper describes some of these roots

  15. Approximation by planar elastic curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, David; Gravesen, Jens; Nørbjerg, Toke Bjerge

    2016-01-01

    We give an algorithm for approximating a given plane curve segment by a planar elastic curve. The method depends on an analytic representation of the space of elastic curve segments, together with a geometric method for obtaining a good initial guess for the approximating curve. A gradient......-driven optimization is then used to find the approximating elastic curve....

  16. Declining Academic Fields in U.S. Four-Year Colleges and Universities, 1970-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brint, Steven; Proctor, Kristopher; Mulligan, Kerry; Rotondi, Matthew B.; Hanneman, Robert A.

    2012-01-01

    This research identifies 22 fields that declined in absolute numbers and/or prevalence over a 35-year period. Most were basic fields in the arts and sciences. Steep declines were evident only in a few fields, notably European languages and literatures. Larger, higher status, and historically liberal arts oriented institutions were less likely to…

  17. Incorporating experience curves in appliance standards analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desroches, Louis-Benoit; Garbesi, Karina; Kantner, Colleen; Van Buskirk, Robert; Yang, Hung-Chia

    2013-01-01

    There exists considerable evidence that manufacturing costs and consumer prices of residential appliances have decreased in real terms over the last several decades. This phenomenon is generally attributable to manufacturing efficiency gained with cumulative experience producing a certain good, and is modeled by an empirical experience curve. The technical analyses conducted in support of U.S. energy conservation standards for residential appliances and commercial equipment have, until recently, assumed that manufacturing costs and retail prices remain constant during the projected 30-year analysis period. This assumption does not reflect real market price dynamics. Using price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we present U.S. experience curves for room air conditioners, clothes dryers, central air conditioners, furnaces, and refrigerators and freezers. These experience curves were incorporated into recent energy conservation standards analyses for these products. Including experience curves increases the national consumer net present value of potential standard levels. In some cases a potential standard level exhibits a net benefit when considering experience, whereas without experience it exhibits a net cost. These results highlight the importance of modeling more representative market prices. - Highlights: ► Past appliance standards analyses have assumed constant equipment prices. ► There is considerable evidence of consistent real price declines. ► We incorporate experience curves for several large appliances into the analysis. ► The revised analyses demonstrate larger net present values of potential standards. ► The results imply that past standards analyses may have undervalued benefits.

  18. World oil prices flat to declining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adelman, M.A.

    1993-01-01

    A forecast is presented of the likely trends in world oil prices over the short to medium term. A historical background is presented of the OPEC cartel and its role in influencing oil prices. The incentives and disincentives for OPEC to raise prices, and the tensions within the cartel are explored. Slower demand growth and the expansion of natural gas are expected to put downward pressure on oil prices, which are currently artificially high. The impacts of high taxes on development and exploration are examined, and it is shown that state ownership poses an obstacle to improved performance. Threats of price decline are expected to continue to lead to threats of hasty, or even violent action on the part of OPEC members, as happened in 1990. Privatization and tax codes designed to skim rent are positive trends

  19. Power Curve Measurements REWS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gómez Arranz, Paula; Vesth, Allan

    This report describes the power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine in a chosen period. The measurements were carried out following the measurement procedure in the draft of IEC 61400-12-1 Ed.2 [1], with some deviations mostly regarding uncertainty calculation. Here, the refere......This report describes the power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine in a chosen period. The measurements were carried out following the measurement procedure in the draft of IEC 61400-12-1 Ed.2 [1], with some deviations mostly regarding uncertainty calculation. Here......, the reference wind speed used in the power curve is the equivalent wind speed obtained from lidar measurements at several heights between lower and upper blade tip, in combination with a hub height meteorological mast. The measurements have been performed using DTU’s measurement equipment, the analysis...

  20. Historical perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, E.M.

    1982-01-01

    A historical perspective of the nuclear waste issue is presented, beginning from the Atoms for Peace Legislation which made nuclear technology available to private industry in 1953 to 1954. Once the nuclear process had been demonstrated to be a technically and economically feasible method to convert thermal energy for electric power generation, commercial application began. The issue of nuclear waste management did not keep up with higher priorities. As early as 1957, research into storing the waste in geological structures was conducted by the National Academy of Sciences, and considerable technical progress was made in the 60's. During the 60's and 70's, numerous legislative actions (e.g., Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, Environmental Policy Act) had a significant impact on nuclear waste dipsosal decisions. In 1971 to 1972 the Atomic Energy Commission authorized a nuclear waste repository in Kansas, a decision which was amended the following year and finally abandoned altogether in 1974. The OPEC oil embargo and ensuing price actions moved nuclear power into a more prominent position in the United States' plans for energy independence. This increased the stress between environmental concerns and economic need. The Carter Administration indefinitely deferred reprocessing of spent fuel and initiated a government-wide review of nuclear policy issues. The Congress did not actively begin to fashion a nuclear waste program until February 1980. The legislation which passed the Senate in the Spring of '82, and a compromise version pending before the House, may resolve the issue by establishing a long-term stable policy which will contain milestones, goals and specific decision making processes; it will include a mechanism for the public and the states to be involved; and it will insure adequate financing provisions

  1. Curved electromagnetic missiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Myers, J.M.; Shen, H.M.; Wu, T.T.

    1989-01-01

    Transient electromagnetic fields can exhibit interesting behavior in the limit of great distances from their sources. In situations of finite total radiated energy, the energy reaching a distant receiver can decrease with distance much more slowly than the usual r - 2 . Cases of such slow decrease have been referred to as electromagnetic missiles. All of the wide variety of known missiles propagate in essentially straight lines. A sketch is presented here of a missile that can follow a path that is strongly curved. An example of a curved electromagnetic missile is explicitly constructed and some of its properties are discussed. References to details available elsewhere are given

  2. Algebraic curves and cryptography

    CERN Document Server

    Murty, V Kumar

    2010-01-01

    It is by now a well-known paradigm that public-key cryptosystems can be built using finite Abelian groups and that algebraic geometry provides a supply of such groups through Abelian varieties over finite fields. Of special interest are the Abelian varieties that are Jacobians of algebraic curves. All of the articles in this volume are centered on the theme of point counting and explicit arithmetic on the Jacobians of curves over finite fields. The topics covered include Schoof's \\ell-adic point counting algorithm, the p-adic algorithms of Kedlaya and Denef-Vercauteren, explicit arithmetic on

  3. IGMtransmission: Transmission curve computation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Christopher M.; Meiksin, Avery; Stock, David

    2015-04-01

    IGMtransmission is a Java graphical user interface that implements Monte Carlo simulations to compute the corrections to colors of high-redshift galaxies due to intergalactic attenuation based on current models of the Intergalactic Medium. The effects of absorption due to neutral hydrogen are considered, with particular attention to the stochastic effects of Lyman Limit Systems. Attenuation curves are produced, as well as colors for a wide range of filter responses and model galaxy spectra. Photometric filters are included for the Hubble Space Telescope, the Keck telescope, the Mt. Palomar 200-inch, the SUBARU telescope and UKIRT; alternative filter response curves and spectra may be readily uploaded.

  4. Cognitive decline affects diabetic women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perzyński Adam

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: DM provokes peripheral complications and changes in central nervous system. Central changes in the course of diabetes mellitus (DM include changes in brain tissue structure, electrophysiological abnormalities but also disturbances in neurotransmission leading to cognitive decline.

  5. Learning from uncertain curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mallasto, Anton; Feragen, Aasa

    2017-01-01

    We introduce a novel framework for statistical analysis of populations of nondegenerate Gaussian processes (GPs), which are natural representations of uncertain curves. This allows inherent variation or uncertainty in function-valued data to be properly incorporated in the population analysis. Us...

  6. Power Curve Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Federici, Paolo; Kock, Carsten Weber

    This report describes the power curve measurements performed with a nacelle LIDAR on a given wind turbine in a wind farm and during a chosen measurement period. The measurements and analysis are carried out in accordance to the guidelines in the procedure “DTU Wind Energy-E-0019” [1]. The reporting...

  7. Power Curve Measurements, FGW

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vesth, Allan; Kock, Carsten Weber

    The report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine. The measurements are carried out in accordance to Ref. [1]. A site calibration has been carried out; see Ref. [2], and the measured flow correction factors for different wind directions are used in the present...... analyze of power performance of the turbine....

  8. Power Curve Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Federici, Paolo; Vesth, Allan

    The report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine. The measurements are carried out in accordance to Ref. [1]. A site calibration has been carried out; see Ref. [2], and the measured flow correction factors for different wind directions are used in the present...... analyze of power performance of the turbine....

  9. Power Curve Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Villanueva, Héctor; Gómez Arranz, Paula

    The report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine. The measurements are carried out in accordance to Ref. [1]. A site calibration has been carried out; see Ref. [2], and the measured flow correction factors for different wind directions are used in the present...... analyze of power performance of the turbine...

  10. Carbon Lorenz Curves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, L.F.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073642398

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it exhibits that standard tools in the measurement of income inequality, such as the Lorenz curve and the Gini-index, can successfully be applied to the issues of inequality measurement of carbon emissions and the equity of abatement policies across

  11. The Axial Curve Rotator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Walter M.

    This document contains detailed directions for constructing a device that mechanically produces the three-dimensional shape resulting from the rotation of any algebraic line or curve around either axis on the coordinate plant. The device was developed in response to student difficulty in visualizing, and thus grasping the mathematical principles…

  12. Nacelle lidar power curve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gómez Arranz, Paula; Wagner, Rozenn

    This report describes the power curve measurements performed with a nacelle LIDAR on a given wind turbine in a wind farm and during a chosen measurement period. The measurements and analysis are carried out in accordance to the guidelines in the procedure “DTU Wind Energy-E-0019” [1]. The reporting...

  13. Power curve report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vesth, Allan; Kock, Carsten Weber

    The report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine. The measurements are carried out in accordance to Ref. [1]. A site calibration has been carried out; see Ref. [2], and the measured flow correction factors for different wind directions are used in the present...

  14. Textbook Factor Demand Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Joe C.

    1994-01-01

    Maintains that teachers and textbook graphics follow the same basic pattern in illustrating changes in demand curves when product prices increase. Asserts that the use of computer graphics will enable teachers to be more precise in their graphic presentation of price elasticity. (CFR)

  15. ECM using Edwards curves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bernstein, D.J.; Birkner, P.; Lange, T.; Peters, C.P.

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces EECM-MPFQ, a fast implementation of the elliptic-curve method of factoring integers. EECM-MPFQ uses fewer modular multiplications than the well-known GMP-ECM software, takes less time than GMP-ECM, and finds more primes than GMP-ECM. The main improvements above the

  16. Power Curve Measurements FGW

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Federici, Paolo; Kock, Carsten Weber

    The report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine. The measurements are carried out in accordance to Ref. [1]. A site calibration has been carried out; see Ref. [2], and the measured flow correction factors for different wind directions are used in the present...... analyze of power performance of the turbine...

  17. National Register Historic Districts

    Data.gov (United States)

    Iowa State University GIS Support and Research Facility — The National Register Historic District layer is a shape file showing the boundaries of Historic Districts that are listed on the National Register of Historic Places.

  18. Codes and curves

    CERN Document Server

    Walker, Judy L

    2000-01-01

    When information is transmitted, errors are likely to occur. Coding theory examines efficient ways of packaging data so that these errors can be detected, or even corrected. The traditional tools of coding theory have come from combinatorics and group theory. Lately, however, coding theorists have added techniques from algebraic geometry to their toolboxes. In particular, by re-interpreting the Reed-Solomon codes, one can see how to define new codes based on divisors on algebraic curves. For instance, using modular curves over finite fields, Tsfasman, Vladut, and Zink showed that one can define a sequence of codes with asymptotically better parameters than any previously known codes. This monograph is based on a series of lectures the author gave as part of the IAS/PCMI program on arithmetic algebraic geometry. Here, the reader is introduced to the exciting field of algebraic geometric coding theory. Presenting the material in the same conversational tone of the lectures, the author covers linear codes, inclu...

  19. Carbon Lorenz Curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groot, L. [Utrecht University, Utrecht School of Economics, Janskerkhof 12, 3512 BL Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2008-11-15

    The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it exhibits that standard tools in the measurement of income inequality, such as the Lorenz curve and the Gini-index, can successfully be applied to the issues of inequality measurement of carbon emissions and the equity of abatement policies across countries. These tools allow policy-makers and the general public to grasp at a single glance the impact of conventional distribution rules such as equal caps or grandfathering, or more sophisticated ones, on the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions. Second, using the Samuelson rule for the optimal provision of a public good, the Pareto-optimal distribution of carbon emissions is compared with the distribution that follows if countries follow Nash-Cournot abatement strategies. It is shown that the Pareto-optimal distribution under the Samuelson rule can be approximated by the equal cap division, represented by the diagonal in the Lorenz curve diagram.

  20. Dynamics of curved fronts

    CERN Document Server

    Pelce, Pierre

    1989-01-01

    In recent years, much progress has been made in the understanding of interface dynamics of various systems: hydrodynamics, crystal growth, chemical reactions, and combustion. Dynamics of Curved Fronts is an important contribution to this field and will be an indispensable reference work for researchers and graduate students in physics, applied mathematics, and chemical engineering. The book consist of a 100 page introduction by the editor and 33 seminal articles from various disciplines.

  1. International Wage Curves

    OpenAIRE

    David G. Blanchflower; Andrew J. Oswald

    1992-01-01

    The paper provides evidence for the existence of a negatively sloped locus linking the level of pay to the rate of regional (or industry) unemployment. This "wage curve" is estimated using microeconomic data for Britain, the US, Canada, Korea, Austria, Italy, Holland, Switzerland, Norway, and Germany, The average unemployment elasticity of pay is approximately -0.1. The paper sets out a multi-region efficiency wage model and argues that its predictions are consistent with the data.

  2. Anatomical curve identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, Adrian W.; Katina, Stanislav; Smith, Joanna; Brown, Denise

    2015-01-01

    Methods for capturing images in three dimensions are now widely available, with stereo-photogrammetry and laser scanning being two common approaches. In anatomical studies, a number of landmarks are usually identified manually from each of these images and these form the basis of subsequent statistical analysis. However, landmarks express only a very small proportion of the information available from the images. Anatomically defined curves have the advantage of providing a much richer expression of shape. This is explored in the context of identifying the boundary of breasts from an image of the female torso and the boundary of the lips from a facial image. The curves of interest are characterised by ridges or valleys. Key issues in estimation are the ability to navigate across the anatomical surface in three-dimensions, the ability to recognise the relevant boundary and the need to assess the evidence for the presence of the surface feature of interest. The first issue is addressed by the use of principal curves, as an extension of principal components, the second by suitable assessment of curvature and the third by change-point detection. P-spline smoothing is used as an integral part of the methods but adaptations are made to the specific anatomical features of interest. After estimation of the boundary curves, the intermediate surfaces of the anatomical feature of interest can be characterised by surface interpolation. This allows shape variation to be explored using standard methods such as principal components. These tools are applied to a collection of images of women where one breast has been reconstructed after mastectomy and where interest lies in shape differences between the reconstructed and unreconstructed breasts. They are also applied to a collection of lip images where possible differences in shape between males and females are of interest. PMID:26041943

  3. Estimating Corporate Yield Curves

    OpenAIRE

    Antionio Diaz; Frank Skinner

    2001-01-01

    This paper represents the first study of retail deposit spreads of UK financial institutions using stochastic interest rate modelling and the market comparable approach. By replicating quoted fixed deposit rates using the Black Derman and Toy (1990) stochastic interest rate model, we find that the spread between fixed and variable rates of interest can be modeled (and priced) using an interest rate swap analogy. We also find that we can estimate an individual bank deposit yield curve as a spr...

  4. LCC: Light Curves Classifier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vo, Martin

    2017-08-01

    Light Curves Classifier uses data mining and machine learning to obtain and classify desired objects. This task can be accomplished by attributes of light curves or any time series, including shapes, histograms, or variograms, or by other available information about the inspected objects, such as color indices, temperatures, and abundances. After specifying features which describe the objects to be searched, the software trains on a given training sample, and can then be used for unsupervised clustering for visualizing the natural separation of the sample. The package can be also used for automatic tuning parameters of used methods (for example, number of hidden neurons or binning ratio). Trained classifiers can be used for filtering outputs from astronomical databases or data stored locally. The Light Curve Classifier can also be used for simple downloading of light curves and all available information of queried stars. It natively can connect to OgleII, OgleIII, ASAS, CoRoT, Kepler, Catalina and MACHO, and new connectors or descriptors can be implemented. In addition to direct usage of the package and command line UI, the program can be used through a web interface. Users can create jobs for ”training” methods on given objects, querying databases and filtering outputs by trained filters. Preimplemented descriptors, classifier and connectors can be picked by simple clicks and their parameters can be tuned by giving ranges of these values. All combinations are then calculated and the best one is used for creating the filter. Natural separation of the data can be visualized by unsupervised clustering.

  5. Lung function decline in COPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tantucci C

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Claudio Tantucci, Denise ModinaUnit of Respiratory Medicine, Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Brescia, Brescia, ItalyAbstract: The landmark study of Fletcher and Peto on the natural history of tobacco smoke-related chronic airflow obstruction suggested that decline in the forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1 in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD is slow at the beginning, becoming faster with more advanced disease. The present authors reviewed spirometric data of COPD patients included in the placebo arms of recent clinical trials to assess the lung function decline of each stage, defined according to the severity of airflow obstruction as proposed by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD guidelines. In large COPD populations the mean rate of FEV1 decline in GOLD stages II and III is between 47 and 79 mL/year and 56 and 59 mL/year, respectively, and lower than 35 mL/year in GOLD stage IV. Few data on FEV1 decline are available for GOLD stage I. Hence, the loss of lung function, assessed as expiratory airflow reduction, seems more accelerated and therefore more relevant in the initial phases of COPD. To have an impact on the natural history of COPD, it is logical to look at the effects of treatment in the earlier stages.Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, decline, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, FEV1

  6. Marital fertility decline in the Netherlands: child mortality, real wages, and unemployment, 1860-1939.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schellekens, Jona; van Poppel, Frans

    2012-08-01

    Previous studies of the fertility decline in Europe are often limited to an earlier stage of the marital fertility decline, when the decline tended to be slower and before the large increase in earnings in the 1920s. Starting in 1860 (before the onset of the decline), this study follows marital fertility trends until 1939, when fertility reached lower levels than ever before. Using data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN), this study shows that mortality decline, a rise in real income, and unemployment account for the decline in the Netherlands. This finding suggests that marital fertility decline was an adjustment to social and economic change, leaving little room for attitudinal change that is independent of social and economic change.

  7. PV experience curves for the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerwig, R.

    2005-01-01

    Experience curves are one of several tools used by policy makers to take a look at market development. Numerous curves have been constructed for PV but none specific to the Netherlands. The objective of this report is to take a look at the price development of grid-connected PV systems in the Netherlands using the experience curve theory. After a literature and internet search and attempts to acquire information from PV companies information on 51% of the totally installed capacity was found. Curves for the period 1991-2001 were constructed based on system price, BOS (balance-of-system) price and inverter price. The progress ratio of the locally learning BOS was similar to the globally learning module market. This indicates that the pace of development of the Dutch PV market is similar to the globally followed pace. Improvement of the detail of the data might help to get a better idea of which BOS components have declined most. The similar progress ratio also shows the importance of investing both in module and system research as is the case in the Netherlands

  8. With Prudhoe Bay in decline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, J.M.; Pollock, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    Almost every day, it seems, someone is mentioning Prudhoe Bay---its development activities, the direction of its oil production, and more recently its decline rate. Almost as frequently, someone is mentioning the number of companies abandoning exploration in Alaska. The state faces a double-edged dilemma: decline of its most important oil field and a diminished effort to find a replacement for the lost production. ARCO has seen the Prudhoe Bay decline coming for some time and has been planning for it. We have reduced staff, and ARCO and BP Exploration are finding cost-effective ways to work more closely together through such vehicles as shared services. At the same time, ARCO is continuing its high level of Alaskan exploration. This article will assess the future of Prudhoe Bay from a technical perspective, review ARCO's exploration plans for Alaska, and suggest what the state can do to encourage other companies to invest in this crucial producing region and exploratory frontier

  9. Uniformization of elliptic curves

    OpenAIRE

    Ülkem, Özge; Ulkem, Ozge

    2015-01-01

    Every elliptic curve E defined over C is analytically isomorphic to C*=qZ for some q ∊ C*. Similarly, Tate has shown that if E is defined over a p-adic field K, then E is analytically isomorphic to K*=qZ for some q ∊ K . Further the isomorphism E(K) ≅ K*/qZ respects the action of the Galois group GK/K, where K is the algebraic closure of K. I will explain the construction of this isomorphism.

  10. Strong families and declining fertility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilevych, Yuliya

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on the role of family and social relationships in individuals’ reproductive careers during the fertility decline in Soviet Ukraine from around 1950 to 1975. These three decades after the Second World War signified the end of the First Demographic Transition in Ukraine

  11. French Wines on the Decline?:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Bodo

    2004-01-01

    French wines, differentiated by geographic origin, served for many decades as a basis for the French success in the British wine market. However in the early 1990s, market share began to decline. This article explores the values that market participants placed on labelling information on French...

  12. Introducing errors in progress ratios determined from experience curves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Sark, W.G.J.H.M.

    2008-01-01

    Progress ratios (PRs) derived from historical data in experience curves are used for forecasting development of many technologies as a means to model endogenous technical change in for instance climate–economy models. These forecasts are highly sensitive to uncertainties in the progress ratio. As a

  13. Chinese culture and fertility decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C; Jia, S

    1992-01-01

    Coale has suggested that cultural factors exert a significant influence on fertility reduction; countries in the "Chinese cultural circle" would be the first to show fertility decline. In China, the view was that traditional Chinese culture contributed to increased population. This paper examines the nature of the relationship between Chinese culture and fertility. Attention was directed to a comparison of fertility rates of developing countries with strong Chinese cultural influence and of fertility within different regions of China. Discussion was followed by an explanation of the theoretical impact of Chinese culture on fertility and direct and indirect beliefs and practices that might either enhance or hinder fertility decline. Emigration to neighboring countries occurred after the Qing dynasty. Fertility after the 1950s declined markedly in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China: all countries within the Chinese cultural circle. Other countries within the Chinese circle which have higher fertility, yet lower fertility than other non-Chinese cultural countries, are Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Within China, regions with similar fertility patterns are identified as coastal regions, central plains, and mountainous and plateau regions. The Han ethnic group has lower fertility than that of ethnic minorities; regions with large Han populations have lower fertility. Overseas Chinese in East Asian countries also tend to have lower fertility than their host populations. Chinese culture consisted of the assimilation of other cultures over 5000 years. Fertility decline was dependent on the population's desire to limit reproduction, favorable social mechanisms, and availability of contraception: all factors related to economic development. Chinese culture affects fertility reduction by affecting reproductive views and social mechanisms directly, and indirectly through economics. Confucianism emphasizes collectivism, self

  14. Roc curves for continuous data

    CERN Document Server

    Krzanowski, Wojtek J

    2009-01-01

    Since ROC curves have become ubiquitous in many application areas, the various advances have been scattered across disparate articles and texts. ROC Curves for Continuous Data is the first book solely devoted to the subject, bringing together all the relevant material to provide a clear understanding of how to analyze ROC curves.The fundamental theory of ROC curvesThe book first discusses the relationship between the ROC curve and numerous performance measures and then extends the theory into practice by describing how ROC curves are estimated. Further building on the theory, the authors prese

  15. Developing Novel Reservoir Rule Curves Using Seasonal Inflow Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Hsin-yi; Tung, Ching-pin

    2015-04-01

    Due to significant seasonal rainfall variations, reservoirs and their flexible operational rules are indispensable to Taiwan. Furthermore, with the intensifying impacts of climate change on extreme climate, the frequency of droughts in Taiwan has been increasing in recent years. Drought is a creeping phenomenon, the slow onset character of drought makes it difficult to detect at an early stage, and causes delays on making the best decision of allocating water. For these reasons, novel reservoir rule curves using projected seasonal streamflow are proposed in this study, which can potentially reduce the adverse effects of drought. This study dedicated establishing new rule curves which consider both current available storage and anticipated monthly inflows with leading time of two months to reduce the risk of water shortage. The monthly inflows are projected based on the seasonal climate forecasts from Central Weather Bureau (CWB), which a weather generation model is used to produce daily weather data for the hydrological component of the GWLF. To incorporate future monthly inflow projections into rule curves, this study designs a decision flow index which is a linear combination of current available storage and inflow projections with leading time of 2 months. By optimizing linear relationship coefficients of decision flow index, the shape of rule curves and the percent of water supply in each zone, the best rule curves to decrease water shortage risk and impacts can be developed. The Shimen Reservoir in the northern Taiwan is used as a case study to demonstrate the proposed method. Existing rule curves (M5 curves) of Shimen Reservoir are compared with two cases of new rule curves, including hindcast simulations and historic seasonal forecasts. The results show new rule curves can decrease the total water shortage ratio, and in addition, it can also allocate shortage amount to preceding months to avoid extreme shortage events. Even though some uncertainties in

  16. Curved Josephson junction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobrowolski, Tomasz

    2012-01-01

    The constant curvature one and quasi-one dimensional Josephson junction is considered. On the base of Maxwell equations, the sine–Gordon equation that describes an influence of curvature on the kink motion was obtained. It is showed that the method of geometrical reduction of the sine–Gordon model from three to lower dimensional manifold leads to an identical form of the sine–Gordon equation. - Highlights: ► The research on dynamics of the phase in a curved Josephson junction is performed. ► The geometrical reduction is applied to the sine–Gordon model. ► The results of geometrical reduction and the fundamental research are compared.

  17. Curved-Duct

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Je Hyun Baekt

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available A numerical study is conducted on the fully-developed laminar flow of an incompressible viscous fluid in a square duct rotating about a perpendicular axis to the axial direction of the duct. At the straight duct, the rotation produces vortices due to the Coriolis force. Generally two vortex cells are formed and the axial velocity distribution is distorted by the effect of this Coriolis force. When a convective force is weak, two counter-rotating vortices are shown with a quasi-parabolic axial velocity profile for weak rotation rates. As the rotation rate increases, the axial velocity on the vertical centreline of the duct begins to flatten and the location of vorticity center is moved near to wall by the effect of the Coriolis force. When the convective inertia force is strong, a double-vortex secondary flow appears in the transverse planes of the duct for weak rotation rates but as the speed of rotation increases the secondary flow is shown to split into an asymmetric configuration of four counter-rotating vortices. If the rotation rates are increased further, the secondary flow restabilizes to a slightly asymmetric double-vortex configuration. Also, a numerical study is conducted on the laminar flow of an incompressible viscous fluid in a 90°-bend square duct that rotates about axis parallel to the axial direction of the inlet. At a 90°-bend square duct, the feature of flow by the effect of a Coriolis force and a centrifugal force, namely a secondary flow by the centrifugal force in the curved region and the Coriolis force in the downstream region, is shown since the centrifugal force in curved region and the Coriolis force in downstream region are dominant respectively.

  18. Elliptic curves for applications (Tutorial)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lange, T.; Bernstein, D.J.; Chatterjee, S.

    2011-01-01

    More than 25 years ago, elliptic curves over finite fields were suggested as a group in which the Discrete Logarithm Problem (DLP) can be hard. Since then many researchers have scrutinized the security of the DLP on elliptic curves with the result that for suitably chosen curves only exponential

  19. Titration Curves: Fact and Fiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, John

    1997-01-01

    Discusses ways in which datalogging equipment can enable titration curves to be measured accurately and how computing power can be used to predict the shape of curves. Highlights include sources of error, use of spreadsheets to generate titration curves, titration of a weak acid with a strong alkali, dibasic acids, weak acid and weak base, and…

  20. Energy consumption declined in 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    On presenting the energy consumption figures for 1993 the Minister for Economic Affairs of Baden-Wuerttemberg Dieter Spoeri (SPD) spoke of the eternal task of saving energy. In his view the slight decline in energy consumption from 1992 to 1993 should not be interpreted as a greater willingness to save energy; its main cause is rather to be seen in the course of the economy. According to estimations, total energy consumption fell 0.5% and electricity consumption 1.0% from 1992 to 1993. The economy on the other hand, still a decisive factor in energy consumption, is estimated to have declined 3% during that period. In the ten years from 1983 to 1993 total energy consumption in the Land rose an average annual 1.8% while electricity consumption kept astride with the economy with an average annual rise 2.7%, he said. (orig./HP) [de

  1. Cardiovascular Prevention of Cognitive Decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Jacques Monsuez

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Midlife cardiovascular risk factors, including diabetes, hypertension, dyslipemia, and an unhealthy lifestyle, have been linked to subsequent incidence, delay of onset, and progression rate of Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia. Conversely, optimal treatment of cardiovascular risk factors prevents and slows down age-related cognitive disorders. The impact of antihypertensive therapy on cognitive outcome in patients with hypertension was assessed in large trials which demonstrated a reduction in progression of MRI white matter hyperintensities, in cognitive decline and in incidence of dementia. Large-scale database correlated statin use and reduction in the incidence of dementia, mainly in patients with documented atherosclerosis, but clinical trials failed to reach similar conclusions. Whether a multitargeted intervention would substantially improve protection, quality of life, and reduce medical cost expenditures in patients with lower risk profile has not been ascertained. This would require appropriately designed trials targeting large populations and focusing on cognitive decline as a primary outcome endpoint.

  2. Cognitive decline in Parkinson disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarsland, Dag; Creese, Byron; Politis, Marios; Chaudhuri, K. Ray; ffytche, Dominic H.; Weintraub, Daniel; Ballard, Clive

    2017-01-01

    Dementia is a frequent problem encountered in advanced stages of Parkinson disease (PD). In recent years, research has focused on the pre-dementia stages of cognitive impairment in PD, including mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Several longitudinal studies have shown that MCI is a harbinger of dementia in PD, although the course is variable, and stabilization of cognition — or even reversal to normal cognition — is not uncommon. In addition to limbic and cortical spread of Lewy pathology, several other mechanisms are likely to contribute to cognitive decline in PD, and a variety of biomarker studies, some using novel structural and functional imaging techniques, have documented in vivo brain changes associated with cognitive impairment. The evidence consistently suggests that low cerebrospinal fluid levels of amyloid-β42, a marker of comorbid Alzheimer disease (AD), predict future cognitive decline and dementia in PD. Emerging genetic evidence indicates that in addition to the APOE*ε4 allele (an established risk factor for AD), GBA mutations and SCNA mutations and triplications are associated with cognitive decline in PD, whereas the findings are mixed for MAPT polymorphisms. Cognitive enhancing medications have some effect in PD dementia, but no convincing evidence that progression from MCI to dementia can be delayed or prevented is available, although cognitive training has shown promising results. PMID:28257128

  3. Variation of curve number with storm depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banasik, K.; Hejduk, L.

    2012-04-01

    The NRCS Curve Number (known also as SCS-CN) method is well known as a tool in predicting flood runoff depth from small ungauged catchment. The traditional way of determination the CNs, based on soil characteristics, land use and hydrological conditions, seemed to have tendency to overpredict the floods in some cases. Over 30 year rainfall-runoff data, collected in two small (A=23.4 & 82.4 km2), lowland, agricultural catchments in Center of Poland (Banasik & Woodward 2010), were used to determine runoff Curve Number and to check a tendency of changing. The observed CN declines with increasing storm size, which according recent views of Hawkins (1993) could be classified as a standard response of watershed. The analysis concluded, that using CN value according to the procedure described in USDA-SCS Handbook one receives representative value for estimating storm runoff from high rainfall depths in the analyzes catchments. This has been confirmed by applying "asymptotic approach" for estimating the watershed curve number from the rainfall-runoff data. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that CN, estimated from mean retention parameter S of recorded events with rainfall depth higher than initial abstraction, is also approaching the theoretical CN. The observed CN, ranging from 59.8 to 97.1 and from 52.3 to 95.5, in the smaller and the larger catchment respectively, declines with increasing storm size, which has been classified as a standard response of watershed. The investigation demonstrated also changeability of the CN during a year, with much lower values during the vegetation season. Banasik K. & D.E. Woodward (2010). "Empirical determination of curve number for a small agricultural watrshed in Poland". 2nd Joint Federal Interagency Conference, Las Vegas, NV, June 27 - July 1, 2010 (http://acwi.gov/sos/pubs/2ndJFIC/Contents/10E_Banasik_ 28_02_10. pdf). Hawkins R. H. (1993). "Asymptotic determination of curve numbers from data". Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

  4. Statistical re-evaluation of the ASME KIC and KIR fracture toughness reference curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallin, K.

    1999-01-01

    Historically the ASME reference curves have been treated as representing absolute deterministic lower bound curves of fracture toughness. In reality, this is not the case. They represent only deterministic lower bound curves to a specific set of data, which represent a certain probability range. A recently developed statistical lower bound estimation method called the 'master curve', has been proposed as a candidate for a new lower bound reference curve concept. From a regulatory point of view, the master curve is somewhat problematic in that it does not claim to be an absolute deterministic lower bound, but corresponds to a specific theoretical failure probability that can be chosen freely based on application. In order to be able to substitute the old ASME reference curves with lower bound curves based on the master curve concept, the inherent statistical nature (and confidence level) of the ASME reference curves must be revealed. In order to estimate the true inherent level of safety, represented by the reference curves, the original database was re-evaluated with statistical methods and compared to an analysis based on the master curve concept. The analysis reveals that the 5% lower bound master curve has the same inherent degree of safety as originally intended for the K IC -reference curve. Similarly, the 1% lower bound master curve corresponds to the K IR -reference curve. (orig.)

  5. Statistical re-evaluation of the ASME KIC and KIR fracture toughness reference curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallin, K.; Rintamaa, R.

    1998-01-01

    Historically the ASME reference curves have been treated as representing absolute deterministic lower bound curves of fracture toughness. In reality, this is not the case. They represent only deterministic lower bound curves to a specific set of data, which represent a certain probability range. A recently developed statistical lower bound estimation method called the 'Master curve', has been proposed as a candidate for a new lower bound reference curve concept. From a regulatory point of view, the Master curve is somewhat problematic in that it does not claim to be an absolute deterministic lower bound, but corresponds to a specific theoretical failure probability that can be chosen freely based on application. In order to be able to substitute the old ASME reference curves with lower bound curves based on the master curve concept, the inherent statistical nature (and confidence level) of the ASME reference curves must be revealed. In order to estimate the true inherent level of safety, represented by the reference curves, the original data base was re-evaluated with statistical methods and compared to an analysis based on the master curve concept. The analysis reveals that the 5% lower bound Master curve has the same inherent degree of safety as originally intended for the K IC -reference curve. Similarly, the 1% lower bound Master curve corresponds to the K IR -reference curve. (orig.)

  6. Microvascular Anastomosis: Proposition of a Learning Curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhtari, Pooneh; Tayebi Meybodi, Ali; Benet, Arnau; Lawton, Michael T

    2018-04-14

    Learning to perform a microvascular anastomosis is one of the most difficult tasks in cerebrovascular surgery. Previous studies offer little regarding the optimal protocols to maximize learning efficiency. This failure stems mainly from lack of knowledge about the learning curve of this task. To delineate this learning curve and provide information about its various features including acquisition, improvement, consistency, stability, and recall. Five neurosurgeons with an average surgical experience history of 5 yr and without any experience in bypass surgery performed microscopic anastomosis on progressively smaller-caliber silastic tubes (Biomet, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida) during 24 consecutive sessions. After a 1-, 2-, and 8-wk retention interval, they performed recall test on 0.7-mm silastic tubes. The anastomoses were rated based on anastomosis patency and presence of any leaks. Improvement rate was faster during initial sessions compared to the final practice sessions. Performance decline was observed in the first session of working on a smaller-caliber tube. However, this rapidly improved during the following sessions of practice. Temporary plateaus were seen in certain segments of the curve. The retention interval between the acquisition and recall phase did not cause a regression to the prepractice performance level. Learning the fine motor task of microvascular anastomosis adapts to the basic rules of learning such as the "power law of practice." Our results also support the improvement of performance during consecutive sessions of practice. The objective evidence provided may help in developing optimized learning protocols for microvascular anastomosis.

  7. A Journey Between Two Curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Cherkis

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available A typical solution of an integrable system is described in terms of a holomorphic curve and a line bundle over it. The curve provides the action variables while the time evolution is a linear flow on the curve's Jacobian. Even though the system of Nahm equations is closely related to the Hitchin system, the curves appearing in these two cases have very different nature. The former can be described in terms of some classical scattering problem while the latter provides a solution to some Seiberg-Witten gauge theory. This note identifies the setup in which one can formulate the question of relating the two curves.

  8. VT Historic Preservation Grant

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — The State-funded Historic Preservation Grant Program helps municipalities and non-profit organizations rehabilitate the historic buildings that are a vital part of...

  9. Soil Water Retention Curve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, L. E.; Kim, J.; Cifelli, R.; Chandra, C. V.

    2016-12-01

    Potential water retention, S, is one of parameters commonly used in hydrologic modeling for soil moisture accounting. Physically, S indicates total amount of water which can be stored in soil and is expressed in units of depth. S can be represented as a change of soil moisture content and in this context is commonly used to estimate direct runoff, especially in the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number (CN) method. Generally, the lumped and the distributed hydrologic models can easily use the SCS-CN method to estimate direct runoff. Changes in potential water retention have been used in previous SCS-CN studies; however, these studies have focused on long-term hydrologic simulations where S is allowed to vary at the daily time scale. While useful for hydrologic events that span multiple days, the resolution is too coarse for short-term applications such as flash flood events where S may not recover its full potential. In this study, a new method for estimating a time-variable potential water retention at hourly time-scales is presented. The methodology is applied for the Napa River basin, California. The streamflow gage at St Helena, located in the upper reaches of the basin, is used as the control gage site to evaluate the model performance as it is has minimal influences by reservoirs and diversions. Rainfall events from 2011 to 2012 are used for estimating the event-based SCS CN to transfer to S. As a result, we have derived the potential water retention curve and it is classified into three sections depending on the relative change in S. The first is a negative slope section arising from the difference in the rate of moving water through the soil column, the second is a zero change section representing the initial recovery the potential water retention, and the third is a positive change section representing the full recovery of the potential water retention. Also, we found that the soil water moving has traffic jam within 24 hours after finished first

  10. Democracy and Historical Writing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Baets, Antoon

    2015-01-01

    In this essay, we try to clarify the relationship between democracy and historical writing. The strategy is first exploring the general relationship between democracy and historical awareness, and then, studying the relationship between democracy and historical writing itself to find out whether

  11. Fermions in curved spacetimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lippoldt, Stefan

    2016-01-21

    In this thesis we study a formulation of Dirac fermions in curved spacetime that respects general coordinate invariance as well as invariance under local spin base transformations. We emphasize the advantages of the spin base invariant formalism both from a conceptual as well as from a practical viewpoint. This suggests that local spin base invariance should be added to the list of (effective) properties of (quantum) gravity theories. We find support for this viewpoint by the explicit construction of a global realization of the Clifford algebra on a 2-sphere which is impossible in the spin-base non-invariant vielbein formalism. The natural variables for this formulation are spacetime-dependent Dirac matrices subject to the Clifford-algebra constraint. In particular, a coframe, i.e. vielbein field is not required. We disclose the hidden spin base invariance of the vielbein formalism. Explicit formulas for the spin connection as a function of the Dirac matrices are found. This connection consists of a canonical part that is completely fixed in terms of the Dirac matrices and a free part that can be interpreted as spin torsion. The common Lorentz symmetric gauge for the vielbein is constructed for the Dirac matrices, even for metrics which are not linearly connected. Under certain criteria, it constitutes the simplest possible gauge, demonstrating why this gauge is so useful. Using the spin base formulation for building a field theory of quantized gravity and matter fields, we show that it suffices to quantize the metric and the matter fields. This observation is of particular relevance for field theory approaches to quantum gravity, as it can serve for a purely metric-based quantization scheme for gravity even in the presence of fermions. Hence, in the second part of this thesis we critically examine the gauge, and the field-parametrization dependence of renormalization group flows in the vicinity of non-Gaussian fixed points in quantum gravity. While physical

  12. History, Historical and Historicity in Heidegger

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Manuel CHILLÓN

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to the “Historie” is possible as “Geschichte”, that is, so that the events are more than mere collections of past vestiges, it is necessary that the historical (geschichtlich of history is understood as enshrined in the historicity, in Geschichtlichkeit. In § 6 of the Introduction to ‘Being and Time’ Heidegger understands that the historicity refers to the temporality of Dasein, to its finitude. Thiking of the historicity requires, as its main task, overcoming history as history of entities, in terms of history of forgotten being. And, of course, to think the being, the happening of being and Dasein which, as such event, is being, is occurring , it is historicizing .

  13. TOWARD CHARACTERIZATION OF THE TYPE IIP SUPERNOVA PROGENITOR POPULATION: A STATISTICAL SAMPLE OF LIGHT CURVES FROM Pan-STARRS1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanders, N. E.; Soderberg, A. M.; Chornock, R.; Berger, E.; Challis, P.; Drout, M.; Kirshner, R. P.; Lunnan, R.; Marion, G. H.; Margutti, R.; McKinnon, R.; Milisavljevic, D. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Gezari, S. [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742-2421 (United States); Betancourt, M. [Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry (United Kingdom); Foley, R. J. [Astronomy Department, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1002 West Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Narayan, G. [National Optical Astronomy Observatory, 950 North Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85719 (United States); Rest, A. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Kankare, E.; Mattila, S. [Finnish Centre for Astronomy with ESO (FINCA), University of Turku, Väisäläntie 20, 21500 Piikkiö (Finland); Smartt, S. J., E-mail: nsanders@cfa.harvard.edu [Astrophysics Research Centre, School of Mathematics and Physics, Queens University, BT7 1NN, Belfast (United Kingdom); and others

    2015-02-01

    In recent years, wide-field sky surveys providing deep multiband imaging have presented a new path for indirectly characterizing the progenitor populations of core-collapse supernovae (SNe): systematic light-curve studies. We assemble a set of 76 grizy-band Type IIP SN light curves from Pan-STARRS1, obtained over a constant survey program of 4 yr and classified using both spectroscopy and machine-learning-based photometric techniques. We develop and apply a new Bayesian model for the full multiband evolution of each light curve in the sample. We find no evidence of a subpopulation of fast-declining explosions (historically referred to as ''Type IIL'' SNe). However, we identify a highly significant relation between the plateau phase decay rate and peak luminosity among our SNe IIP. These results argue in favor of a single parameter, likely determined by initial stellar mass, predominantly controlling the explosions of red supergiants. This relation could also be applied for SN cosmology, offering a standardizable candle good to an intrinsic scatter of ≲ 0.2 mag. We compare each light curve to physical models from hydrodynamic simulations to estimate progenitor initial masses and other properties of the Pan-STARRS1 Type IIP SN sample. We show that correction of systematic discrepancies between modeled and observed SN IIP light-curve properties and an expanded grid of progenitor properties are needed to enable robust progenitor inferences from multiband light-curve samples of this kind. This work will serve as a pathfinder for photometric studies of core-collapse SNe to be conducted through future wide-field transient searches.

  14. Predicting functional decline and survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Mei-Lyn; Tan, Pei Fang; Holbrook, Joanna D

    2017-01-01

    Better predictors of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease course could enable smaller and more targeted clinical trials. Partially to address this aim, the Prize for Life foundation collected de-identified records from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis sufferers who participated in clinical trials of investigational drugs and made them available to researchers in the PRO-ACT database. In this study, time series data from PRO-ACT subjects were fitted to exponential models. Binary classes for decline in the total score of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis functional rating scale revised (ALSFRS-R) (fast/slow progression) and survival (high/low death risk) were derived. Data was segregated into training and test sets via cross validation. Learning algorithms were applied to the demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters in the training set to predict ALSFRS-R decline and the derived fast/slow progression and high/low death risk categories. The performance of predictive models was assessed by cross-validation in the test set using Receiver Operator Curves and root mean squared errors. A model created using a boosting algorithm containing the decline in four parameters (weight, alkaline phosphatase, albumin and creatine kinase) post baseline, was able to predict functional decline class (fast or slow) with fair accuracy (AUC = 0.82). However similar approaches to build a predictive model for decline class by baseline subject characteristics were not successful. In contrast, baseline values of total bilirubin, gamma glutamyltransferase, urine specific gravity and ALSFRS-R item score-climbing stairs were sufficient to predict survival class. Using combinations of small numbers of variables it was possible to predict classes of functional decline and survival across the 1-2 year timeframe available in PRO-ACT. These findings may have utility for design of future ALS clinical trials.

  15. The continuing decline of coral reefs in Bahrain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, John A; Al-Khalifa, Khalifa; Khalaf, Ebtesam; Alshuwaikh, Bassem; Abdulwahab, Ahmed

    2013-07-30

    Historically coral reefs of Bahrain were among the most extensive in the southern basin of the Arabian Gulf. However, Bahrain's reefs have undergone significant decline in the last four decades as a result of large-scale coastal development and elevated sea surface temperature events. Here we quantitatively surveyed six sites including most major coral reef habitats around Bahrain and a reef located 72 km offshore. Fleshy and turf algae now dominate Bahrain's reefs (mean: 72% cover), and live coral cover is low (mean: 5.1%). Formerly dominant Acropora were not observed at any site. The offshore Bulthama reef had the highest coral cover (16.3%) and species richness (22 of the 23 species observed, 13 of which were exclusive to this site). All reefs for which recent and historical data are available show continued degradation, and it is unlikely that they will recover under continuing coastal development and projected climate change impacts. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Models of genus one curves

    OpenAIRE

    Sadek, Mohammad

    2010-01-01

    In this thesis we give insight into the minimisation problem of genus one curves defined by equations other than Weierstrass equations. We are interested in genus one curves given as double covers of P1, plane cubics, or complete intersections of two quadrics in P3. By minimising such a curve we mean making the invariants associated to its defining equations as small as possible using a suitable change of coordinates. We study the non-uniqueness of minimisations of the genus one curves des...

  17. The birth rate decline in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robey, B

    1993-01-01

    Family planning programs historically have played an important role in providing information and counseling and supplying modern methods. Most programs are effective due to socioeconomic development and strong political support. Potential demand for services will be growing. This means that donor agencies must commit additional funding, and users must begin paying or paying more for contraceptives. Services and method choices need to be expanded, and quality of care needs to be improved. Three primary factors will impact on fertility decline: 1) the rate of social development, 2) the speed with which small family norms spread and contraception is adopted, and 3) the facility of private and public suppliers to meet contraceptive demand. Other factors influence reproductive decisions (women's roles and status, economic hardships or opportunities, religion, ethnicity, culture, and tradition). Contraceptive prevalence has increased from under 10% in the 1960s to 38% of all married, reproductive age women in the developing world, excluding China, which has contraceptive prevalence of 72%. Regional differences are wide. In Latin America, contraceptive use averages nearly 60% and ranges from over 50% in 10 countries and below 38% in Bolivia, Guatemala, and Haiti. Contraceptive prevalence is above average in Indonesia (50%), Sri Lanka (62%), and Thailand (68%) and just below average in Bangladesh (40%), India (45%), Philippines (34%), and Vietnam (53%). Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest prevalence, except for Zimbabwe (45%), Botswana (35%), and Kenya (27%). 80% of current users rely on modern methods. In most surveyed countries, 20-30% of married women have unmet demand. Fertility decline, unmet demand, and contraceptive use have all been affected by the diffusion of ideas about the use of family planning and the small family norm. Innovators are usually high status, educated women, who spread their views to other social groups or geographic areas. The spread can be rapid

  18. Who fears and who welcomes population decline?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik P. Van Dalen

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available European countries are experiencing population decline and the tacit assumption in most analyses is that the decline may have detrimental welfare effects. In this paper we use a survey among the population in the Netherlands to discover whether population decline is always met with fear. A number of results stand out: population size preferences differ by geographic proximity: at a global level the majority of respondents favors a (global population decline, but closer to home one supports a stationary population. Population decline is clearly not always met with fear: 31 percent would like the population to decline at the national level and they generally perceive decline to be accompanied by immaterial welfare gains (improvement environment as well as material welfare losses (tax increases, economic stagnation. In addition to these driving forces it appears that the attitude towards immigrants is a very strong determinant at all geographical levels: immigrants seem to be a stronger fear factor than population decline.

  19. Are snake populations in widespread decline?

    OpenAIRE

    Reading, C. J.; Luiselli, L. M.; Akani, G. C.; Bonnet, X.; Amori, G.; Ballouard, J. M.; Filippi, E.; Naulleau, G.; Pearson, D.; Rugiero, L.

    2010-01-01

    Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined ...

  20. Altered Reproductive Function and Amphibian Declines

    OpenAIRE

    Gallipeau, Sherrie

    2014-01-01

    Agrochemical exposure is one of the factors that contributes to worldwide amphibian declines. Most studies that examine agrochemicals and amphibian declines focus on toxicity. However, declines are more likely caused by the sub-lethal effects of agrochemical exposure. Past emphases on the lethal effects of agrochemical exposure have overshadowed the contribution of decreased recruitment in amphibian declines. Additionally, studies that examine agrochemicals and reproductive function tend to f...

  1. Quantum fields in curved space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birrell, N.D.; Davies, P.C.W.

    1982-01-01

    The book presents a comprehensive review of the subject of gravitational effects in quantum field theory. Quantum field theory in Minkowski space, quantum field theory in curved spacetime, flat spacetime examples, curved spacetime examples, stress-tensor renormalization, applications of renormalization techniques, quantum black holes and interacting fields are all discussed in detail. (U.K.)

  2. Extended analysis of cooling curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Djurdjevic, M.B.; Kierkus, W.T.; Liliac, R.E.; Sokolowski, J.H.

    2002-01-01

    Thermal Analysis (TA) is the measurement of changes in a physical property of a material that is heated through a phase transformation temperature range. The temperature changes in the material are recorded as a function of the heating or cooling time in such a manner that allows for the detection of phase transformations. In order to increase accuracy, characteristic points on the cooling curve have been identified using the first derivative curve plotted versus time. In this paper, an alternative approach to the analysis of the cooling curve has been proposed. The first derivative curve has been plotted versus temperature and all characteristic points have been identified with the same accuracy achieved using the traditional method. The new cooling curve analysis also enables the Dendrite Coherency Point (DCP) to be detected using only one thermocouple. (author)

  3. The Decline of Play and the Rise of Psychopathology in Children and Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Over the past half century, in the United States and other developed nations, children's free play with other children has declined sharply. Over the same period, anxiety, depression, suicide, feelings of helplessness, and narcissism have increased sharply in children, adolescents, and young adults. This article documents these historical changes…

  4. Historical Dictionaries and Historical Dictionary Research: Papers

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    rbr

    Resensies / Reviews. 309 ... and Historical Dictionary Research: Papers from the International ... "Cambridge, Trinity College Library MS 0.5.4: A Fifteenth-century ... There are among others ten types of manuscript collections that need attention, ..... The collection is rounded off by a selective index, supplementing the Table.

  5. Computational aspects of algebraic curves

    CERN Document Server

    Shaska, Tanush

    2005-01-01

    The development of new computational techniques and better computing power has made it possible to attack some classical problems of algebraic geometry. The main goal of this book is to highlight such computational techniques related to algebraic curves. The area of research in algebraic curves is receiving more interest not only from the mathematics community, but also from engineers and computer scientists, because of the importance of algebraic curves in applications including cryptography, coding theory, error-correcting codes, digital imaging, computer vision, and many more.This book cove

  6. Lagos Historical Review

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Lagos Historical Review is an international and interdisciplinary journal publishing papers with a historical focus. The journal generates and participates in debates to advance the discipline of history and promote its relevance to development. The journal aims to serve the academic community with a bias towards ...

  7. HMI - historical flashback

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiss, B.

    1993-01-01

    This brochure is based on a paper read at a HMI colloquium on 14 Juni 1993. The historical information is based on a detailed historical study published in book form under the title ''Industrial-scale Research in Berlin''. (orig./HSCH) [de

  8. Historizing epistemology in psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jovanović, Gordana

    2010-12-01

    The conflict between the psychometric methodological framework and the particularities of human experiences reported in psychotherapeutic context led Michael Schwarz to raise the question whether psychology is based on a methodological error. I take this conflict as a heuristic tool for the reconstruction of the early history of psychology, which bears witness to similar epistemological conflicts, though the dominant historiography of psychology has largely forgotten alternative conceptions and their valuable insights into complexities of psychic phenomena. In order to work against the historical amnesia in psychology I suggest to look at cultural-historical contexts which decisively shaped epistemological choices in psychology. Instead of keeping epistemology and history of psychology separate, which nurtures individualism and naturalism in psychology, I argue for historizing epistemology and for historical psychology. From such a historically reflected perspective psychology in contemporary world can be approached more critically.

  9. The geometry of trifocal curves with applications in architecture, urban and spatial planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Maja

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we consider historical genesis of trifocal curve as an optimal curve for solving the Fermat’s problem (minimizing the sum of distance of one point to three given points in the plane. Trifocal curves are basic plane geometric forms which appear in location problems. We also analyze algebraic equation of these curves and some of their applications in architecture, urbanism and spatial planning. The area and perimeter of trifocal curves are calculated using a Java application. The Java applet is developed for determining numerical value for the Fermat-Torricelli-Weber point and optimal curve with three foci, when starting points are given on an urban map. We also present an application of trifocal curves through the analysis of one specific solution in South Stream gas pipeline project.

  10. 51Cr - erythrocyte survival curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paiva Costa, J. de.

    1982-07-01

    Sixteen patients were studied, being fifteen patients in hemolytic state, and a normal individual as a witness. The aim was to obtain better techniques for the analysis of the erythrocytes, survival curves, according to the recommendations of the International Committee of Hematology. It was used the radiochromatic method as a tracer. Previously a revisional study of the International Literature was made in its aspects inherent to the work in execution, rendering possible to establish comparisons and clarify phonomena observed in cur investigation. Several parameters were considered in this study, hindering both the exponential and the linear curves. The analysis of the survival curves of the erythrocytes in the studied group, revealed that the elution factor did not present a homogeneous answer quantitatively to all, though, the result of the analysis of these curves have been established, through listed programs in the electronic calculator. (Author) [pt

  11. Melting curves of gammairradiated DNA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofer, H.; Altmann, H.; Kehrer, M.

    1978-08-01

    Melting curves of gammairradiated DNA and data derived of them, are reported. The diminished stability is explained by basedestruction. DNA denatures completely at room temperature, if at least every fifth basepair is broken or weakened by irradiation. (author)

  12. Management of the learning curve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Peter-Christian; Slepniov, Dmitrij

    2016-01-01

    Purpose – This paper focuses on the management of the learning curve in overseas capacity expansions. The purpose of this paper is to unravel the direct as well as indirect influences on the learning curve and to advance the understanding of how these affect its management. Design...... the dimensions of the learning process involved in a capacity expansion project and identified the direct and indirect labour influences on the production learning curve. On this basis, the study proposes solutions to managing learning curves in overseas capacity expansions. Furthermore, the paper concludes...... with measures that have the potential to significantly reduce the non-value-added time when establishing new capacities overseas. Originality/value – The paper uses a longitudinal in-depth case study of a Danish wind turbine manufacturer and goes beyond a simplistic treatment of the lead time and learning...

  13. The HISTMAG database: combining historical, archaeomagnetic and volcanic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arneitz, Patrick; Leonhardt, Roman; Schnepp, Elisabeth; Heilig, Balázs; Mayrhofer, Franziska; Kovacs, Peter; Hejda, Pavel; Valach, Fridrich; Vadasz, Gergely; Hammerl, Christa; Egli, Ramon; Fabian, Karl; Kompein, Niko

    2017-09-01

    Records of the past geomagnetic field can be divided into two main categories. These are instrumental historical observations on the one hand, and field estimates based on the magnetization acquired by rocks, sediments and archaeological artefacts on the other hand. In this paper, a new database combining historical, archaeomagnetic and volcanic records is presented. HISTMAG is a relational database, implemented in MySQL, and can be accessed via a web-based interface (http://www.conrad-observatory.at/zamg/index.php/data-en/histmag-database). It combines available global historical data compilations covering the last ∼500 yr as well as archaeomagnetic and volcanic data collections from the last 50 000 yr. Furthermore, new historical and archaeomagnetic records, mainly from central Europe, have been acquired. In total, 190 427 records are currently available in the HISTMAG database, whereby the majority is related to historical declination measurements (155 525). The original database structure was complemented by new fields, which allow for a detailed description of the different data types. A user-comment function provides the possibility for a scientific discussion about individual records. Therefore, HISTMAG database supports thorough reliability and uncertainty assessments of the widely different data sets, which are an essential basis for geomagnetic field reconstructions. A database analysis revealed systematic offset for declination records derived from compass roses on historical geographical maps through comparison with other historical records, while maps created for mining activities represent a reliable source.

  14. Growth curves for Laron syndrome.

    OpenAIRE

    Laron, Z; Lilos, P; Klinger, B

    1993-01-01

    Growth curves for children with Laron syndrome were constructed on the basis of repeated measurements made throughout infancy, childhood, and puberty in 24 (10 boys, 14 girls) of the 41 patients with this syndrome investigated in our clinic. Growth retardation was already noted at birth, the birth length ranging from 42 to 46 cm in the 12/20 available measurements. The postnatal growth curves deviated sharply from the normal from infancy on. Both sexes showed no clear pubertal spurt. Girls co...

  15. Flow over riblet curved surfaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loureiro, J B R; Freire, A P Silva, E-mail: atila@mecanica.ufrj.br [Mechanical Engineering Program, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), C.P. 68503, 21.941-972, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2011-12-22

    The present work studies the mechanics of turbulent drag reduction over curved surfaces by riblets. The effects of surface modification on flow separation over steep and smooth curved surfaces are investigated. Four types of two-dimensional surfaces are studied based on the morphometric parameters that describe the body of a blue whale. Local measurements of mean velocity and turbulence profiles are obtained through laser Doppler anemometry (LDA) and particle image velocimetry (PIV).

  16. The Paradigm of Decline-Metamorphosis-Rebirth in Fine Arts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tine Germ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The triad of decline-metamorphosis-rebirth constantly reappears in the history of civilisation, it is current in all historical periods and cultural environments, in different areas and the most diverse contexts. Its manifestations are countless and the same is true of its interpretations. They are especially frequent in the area of art, because the evolutionary model, grounded in the idea of cyclic development comes very handy for explanations and illustrations which seek to present complicated things in a simple and clear way. The history of art, mainly in the 19th century, advocated a tripartite development of art which seeks greater perfection and maturity and reaches its peak just to be then inevitably followed by a decline in artistic originality and power. Already for some time now the evolutionary model has been shown too ineffective in addressing scholarly questions, especially due to oversimplification and a priori classification of subject matter which cannot possibly be classified. The perception that the art of the Early Renaissance was a preliminary period for more mature and accomplished achievements of High Renaissance which at some point began to lose its drive and went into decline either by repeating outmoded forms or their decomposition, is not only naive, but simply wrong and represents a misunderstanding of the essence of art. In much the same way it would be equally wrong to label in advance the early works of a certain artist as not-mature-yet or possessing less artistic authenticity.

  17. Intersection numbers of spectral curves

    CERN Document Server

    Eynard, B.

    2011-01-01

    We compute the symplectic invariants of an arbitrary spectral curve with only 1 branchpoint in terms of integrals of characteristic classes in the moduli space of curves. Our formula associates to any spectral curve, a characteristic class, which is determined by the laplace transform of the spectral curve. This is a hint to the key role of Laplace transform in mirror symmetry. When the spectral curve is y=\\sqrt{x}, the formula gives Kontsevich--Witten intersection numbers, when the spectral curve is chosen to be the Lambert function \\exp{x}=y\\exp{-y}, the formula gives the ELSV formula for Hurwitz numbers, and when one chooses the mirror of C^3 with framing f, i.e. \\exp{-x}=\\exp{-yf}(1-\\exp{-y}), the formula gives the Marino-Vafa formula, i.e. the generating function of Gromov-Witten invariants of C^3. In some sense this formula generalizes ELSV, Marino-Vafa formula, and Mumford formula.

  18. Dissolution glow curve in LLD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haverkamp, U.; Wiezorek, C.; Poetter, R.

    1990-01-01

    Lyoluminescence dosimetry is based upon light emission during dissolution of previously irradiated dosimetric materials. The lyoluminescence signal is expressed in the dissolution glow curve. These curves begin, depending on the dissolution system, with a high peak followed by an exponentially decreasing intensity. System parameters that influence the graph of the dissolution glow curve, are, for example, injection speed, temperature and pH value of the solution and the design of the dissolution cell. The initial peak does not significantly correlate with the absorbed dose, it is mainly an effect of the injection. The decay of the curve consists of two exponential components: one fast and one slow. The components depend on the absorbed dose and the dosimetric materials used. In particular, the slow component correlates with the absorbed dose. In contrast to the fast component the argument of the exponential function of the slow component is independent of the dosimetric materials investigated: trehalose, glucose and mannitol. The maximum value, following the peak of the curve, and the integral light output are a measure of the absorbed dose. The reason for the different light outputs of various dosimetric materials after irradiation with the same dose is the differing solubility. The character of the dissolution glow curves is the same following irradiation with photons, electrons or neutrons. (author)

  19. LOW COST METHODOLOGIES TO ANALYZE AND CORRECT ABNORMAL PRODUCTION DECLINE IN STRIPPER GAS WELLS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jerry James; Gene Huck; Tim Knobloch

    2001-01-01

    A study group of 376 Clinton Sand wells in Ohio provided data to determine the historic frequency of the problem of abnormal production declines in stripper gas wells and the causes of the abnormal production decline. Analysis of the historic frequency of the problem indicates over 70% of the wells experienced abnormal production decline. The most frequently occurring causes of abnormal production declines were determined to be fluid accumulation (46%), gas gathering restrictions (24%), and mechanical failures (23%). Data collection forms and decision trees were developed to cost-effectively diagnose the abnormal production declines and suggest corrective action. The decision trees and data collection sheets were incorporated into a procedure guide to provide stripper gas well operators with a methodology to analyze and correct abnormal production declines. The systematic methodologies and techniques developed should increase the efficiency of problem well assessment and implementation of solutions for stripper gas wells. This eight quarterly technical progress report provides a summary of the deliverables completed to date, including the results of the remediations, the procedure guide, and the technology transfer. Due to the successful results of the study to date and the efficiency of the methodology development, two to three additional wells will be selected for remediation for inclusion into the study. The results of the additional remediations will be included in the final report

  20. Historically low mitochondrial DNA diversity in koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsangaras, Kyriakos; Avila Arcos, Maria del Carmen; Ishida, Yasuko

    2012-01-01

    The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) is an arboreal marsupial that was historically widespread across eastern Australia until the end of the 19th century when it suffered a steep population decline. Hunting for the fur trade, habitat conversion, and disease contributed to a precipitous reduction...

  1. Curve Boxplot: Generalization of Boxplot for Ensembles of Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzargar, Mahsa; Whitaker, Ross T; Kirby, Robert M

    2014-12-01

    In simulation science, computational scientists often study the behavior of their simulations by repeated solutions with variations in parameters and/or boundary values or initial conditions. Through such simulation ensembles, one can try to understand or quantify the variability or uncertainty in a solution as a function of the various inputs or model assumptions. In response to a growing interest in simulation ensembles, the visualization community has developed a suite of methods for allowing users to observe and understand the properties of these ensembles in an efficient and effective manner. An important aspect of visualizing simulations is the analysis of derived features, often represented as points, surfaces, or curves. In this paper, we present a novel, nonparametric method for summarizing ensembles of 2D and 3D curves. We propose an extension of a method from descriptive statistics, data depth, to curves. We also demonstrate a set of rendering and visualization strategies for showing rank statistics of an ensemble of curves, which is a generalization of traditional whisker plots or boxplots to multidimensional curves. Results are presented for applications in neuroimaging, hurricane forecasting and fluid dynamics.

  2. The historical supernovae

    CERN Document Server

    Clark, David H

    1977-01-01

    The Historical Supernovae is an interdisciplinary study of the historical records of supernova. This book is composed of 12 chapters that particularly highlight the history of the Far East. The opening chapter briefly describes the features of nova and supernova, stars which spontaneously explode with a spectacular and rapid increase in brightness. The succeeding chapter deals with the search for the historical records of supernova from Medieval European monastic chronicles, Arabic chronicles, astrological works etc., post renaissance European scientific writings, and Far Eastern histories and

  3. Amphibian decline and extinction: what we know and what we need to learn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, James P

    2010-11-01

    For over 350 million yr, thousands of amphibian species have lived on Earth. Since the 1980s, amphibians have been disappearing at an alarming rate, in many cases quite suddenly. What is causing these declines and extinctions? In the modern era (post 1500) there are 6 leading causes of biodiversity loss in general, and all of these acting alone or together are responsible for modern amphibian declines: commercial use; introduced/exotic species that compete with, prey on, and parasitize native frogs and salamanders; land use change; contaminants; climate change; and infectious disease. The first 3 causes are historical in the sense that they have been operating for hundreds of years, although the rate of change due to each accelerated greatly after about the mid-20th century. Contaminants, climate change, and emerging infectious diseases are modern causes suspected of being responsible for the so-called 'enigmatic decline' of amphibians in protected areas. Introduced/exotic pathogens, land use change, and infectious disease are the 3 causes with a clear role in amphibian decline as well as extinction; thus far, the other 3 causes are only implicated in decline and not extinction. The present work is a review of the 6 causes with a focus on pathogens and suggested areas where new research is needed. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a chytrid fungus that is an emerging infectious disease causing amphibian population decline and species extinction. Historically, pathogens have not been seen as a major cause of extinction, but Bd is an exception, which is why it is such an interesting, important pathogen to understand. The late 20th and early 21st century global biodiversity loss is characterized as a sixth extinction event. Amphibians are a striking example of these losses as they disappear at a rate that greatly exceeds historical levels. Consequently, modern amphibian decline and extinction is a lens through which we can view the larger story of biodiversity

  4. Considerations for reference pump curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stockton, N.B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper examines problems associated with inservice testing (IST) of pumps to assess their hydraulic performance using reference pump curves to establish acceptance criteria. Safety-related pumps at nuclear power plants are tested under the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (the Code), Section 11. The Code requires testing pumps at specific reference points of differential pressure or flow rate that can be readily duplicated during subsequent tests. There are many cases where test conditions cannot be duplicated. For some pumps, such as service water or component cooling pumps, the flow rate at any time depends on plant conditions and the arrangement of multiple independent and constantly changing loads. System conditions cannot be controlled to duplicate a specific reference value. In these cases, utilities frequently request to use pump curves for comparison of test data for acceptance. There is no prescribed method for developing a pump reference curve. The methods vary and may yield substantially different results. Some results are conservative when compared to the Code requirements; some are not. The errors associated with different curve testing techniques should be understood and controlled within reasonable bounds. Manufacturer's pump curves, in general, are not sufficiently accurate to use as reference pump curves for IST. Testing using reference curves generated with polynomial least squares fits over limited ranges of pump operation, cubic spline interpolation, or cubic spline least squares fits can provide a measure of pump hydraulic performance that is at least as accurate as the Code required method. Regardless of the test method, error can be reduced by using more accurate instruments, by correcting for systematic errors, by increasing the number of data points, and by taking repetitive measurements at each data point

  5. Historical Trends in the Use of Radiation Therapy for Pediatric Cancers: 1973-2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jairam, Vikram; Roberts, Kenneth B.; Yu, James B.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: This study was undertaken to assess historical trends in the use of radiation therapy (RT) for pediatric cancers over the past 4 decades. Methods: The National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database of the 9 original tumor registries (SEER-9) was queried to identify patients aged 0 to 19 years with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, acute myeloid leukemia, bone and joint cancer, cancer of the brain and nervous system, Hodgkin lymphoma, neuroblastoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, soft tissue cancer, Wilms tumor, or retinoblastoma from 1973 to 2008. Patients were grouped into 4-year time epochs. The number and percentage of patients who received RT as part of their initial treatment were calculated per epoch by each diagnosis group from 1973 to 2008. Results: RT use for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and retinoblastoma declined sharply from 57%, 57%, and 30% in 1973 to 1976 to 11%, 15%, and 2%, respectively, in 2005 to 2008. Similarly, smaller declines in RT use were also seen in brain cancer (70%-39%), bone cancer (41%-21%), Wilms tumor (75%-53%), and neuroblastoma (60%-25%). RT use curves for Wilms tumor and neuroblastoma were nonlinear with nadirs in 1993 to 1996 at 39% and 19%, respectively. There were minimal changes in RT use for Hodgkin lymphoma, soft tissue cancer, or acute myeloid leukemia, roughly stable at 72%, 40%, and 11%, respectively. Almost all patients treated with RT were given external beam RT exclusively. However, from 1985 to 2008, treatments involving brachytherapy, radioisotopes, or combination therapy increased in frequency, comprising 1.8%, 4.6%, and 11.9% of RT treatments in brain cancer, soft tissue cancer, and retinoblastoma, respectively. Conclusions: The use of RT is declining over time in 7 of 10 pediatric cancer categories. A limitation of this study is a potential under-ascertainment of RT use in the SEER-9 database including the delayed use of RT

  6. Historical Trends in the Use of Radiation Therapy for Pediatric Cancers: 1973-2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jairam, Vikram [Yale School of Medicine, Department of Therapeutic Radiology, New Haven, Connecticut (United States); Roberts, Kenneth B. [Yale School of Medicine, Department of Therapeutic Radiology, New Haven, Connecticut (United States); Yale Cancer Center, New Haven, Connecticut (United States); Cancer Outcomes, Public Policy, and Effectiveness Research (COPPER) Center at Yale, New Haven, Connecticut (United States); Yu, James B., E-mail: james.b.yu@yale.edu [Yale School of Medicine, Department of Therapeutic Radiology, New Haven, Connecticut (United States); Yale Cancer Center, New Haven, Connecticut (United States); Cancer Outcomes, Public Policy, and Effectiveness Research (COPPER) Center at Yale, New Haven, Connecticut (United States)

    2013-03-01

    Purpose: This study was undertaken to assess historical trends in the use of radiation therapy (RT) for pediatric cancers over the past 4 decades. Methods: The National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database of the 9 original tumor registries (SEER-9) was queried to identify patients aged 0 to 19 years with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, acute myeloid leukemia, bone and joint cancer, cancer of the brain and nervous system, Hodgkin lymphoma, neuroblastoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, soft tissue cancer, Wilms tumor, or retinoblastoma from 1973 to 2008. Patients were grouped into 4-year time epochs. The number and percentage of patients who received RT as part of their initial treatment were calculated per epoch by each diagnosis group from 1973 to 2008. Results: RT use for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and retinoblastoma declined sharply from 57%, 57%, and 30% in 1973 to 1976 to 11%, 15%, and 2%, respectively, in 2005 to 2008. Similarly, smaller declines in RT use were also seen in brain cancer (70%-39%), bone cancer (41%-21%), Wilms tumor (75%-53%), and neuroblastoma (60%-25%). RT use curves for Wilms tumor and neuroblastoma were nonlinear with nadirs in 1993 to 1996 at 39% and 19%, respectively. There were minimal changes in RT use for Hodgkin lymphoma, soft tissue cancer, or acute myeloid leukemia, roughly stable at 72%, 40%, and 11%, respectively. Almost all patients treated with RT were given external beam RT exclusively. However, from 1985 to 2008, treatments involving brachytherapy, radioisotopes, or combination therapy increased in frequency, comprising 1.8%, 4.6%, and 11.9% of RT treatments in brain cancer, soft tissue cancer, and retinoblastoma, respectively. Conclusions: The use of RT is declining over time in 7 of 10 pediatric cancer categories. A limitation of this study is a potential under-ascertainment of RT use in the SEER-9 database including the delayed use of RT.

  7. Historical trends in the use of radiation therapy for pediatric cancers: 1973-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jairam, Vikram; Roberts, Kenneth B; Yu, James B

    2013-03-01

    This study was undertaken to assess historical trends in the use of radiation therapy (RT) for pediatric cancers over the past 4 decades. The National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database of the 9 original tumor registries (SEER-9) was queried to identify patients aged 0 to 19 years with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, acute myeloid leukemia, bone and joint cancer, cancer of the brain and nervous system, Hodgkin lymphoma, neuroblastoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, soft tissue cancer, Wilms tumor, or retinoblastoma from 1973 to 2008. Patients were grouped into 4-year time epochs. The number and percentage of patients who received RT as part of their initial treatment were calculated per epoch by each diagnosis group from 1973 to 2008. RT use for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and retinoblastoma declined sharply from 57%, 57%, and 30% in 1973 to 1976 to 11%, 15%, and 2%, respectively, in 2005 to 2008. Similarly, smaller declines in RT use were also seen in brain cancer (70%-39%), bone cancer (41%-21%), Wilms tumor (75%-53%), and neuroblastoma (60%-25%). RT use curves for Wilms tumor and neuroblastoma were nonlinear with nadirs in 1993 to 1996 at 39% and 19%, respectively. There were minimal changes in RT use for Hodgkin lymphoma, soft tissue cancer, or acute myeloid leukemia, roughly stable at 72%, 40%, and 11%, respectively. Almost all patients treated with RT were given external beam RT exclusively. However, from 1985 to 2008, treatments involving brachytherapy, radioisotopes, or combination therapy increased in frequency, comprising 1.8%, 4.6%, and 11.9% of RT treatments in brain cancer, soft tissue cancer, and retinoblastoma, respectively. The use of RT is declining over time in 7 of 10 pediatric cancer categories. A limitation of this study is a potential under-ascertainment of RT use in the SEER-9 database including the delayed use of RT. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Statistical re-evaluation of the ASME K{sub IC} and K{sub IR} fracture toughness reference curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallin, K.; Rintamaa, R. [Valtion Teknillinen Tutkimuskeskus, Espoo (Finland)

    1998-11-01

    Historically the ASME reference curves have been treated as representing absolute deterministic lower bound curves of fracture toughness. In reality, this is not the case. They represent only deterministic lower bound curves to a specific set of data, which represent a certain probability range. A recently developed statistical lower bound estimation method called the `Master curve`, has been proposed as a candidate for a new lower bound reference curve concept. From a regulatory point of view, the Master curve is somewhat problematic in that it does not claim to be an absolute deterministic lower bound, but corresponds to a specific theoretical failure probability that can be chosen freely based on application. In order to be able to substitute the old ASME reference curves with lower bound curves based on the master curve concept, the inherent statistical nature (and confidence level) of the ASME reference curves must be revealed. In order to estimate the true inherent level of safety, represented by the reference curves, the original data base was re-evaluated with statistical methods and compared to an analysis based on the master curve concept. The analysis reveals that the 5% lower bound Master curve has the same inherent degree of safety as originally intended for the K{sub IC}-reference curve. Similarly, the 1% lower bound Master curve corresponds to the K{sub IR}-reference curve. (orig.)

  9. Curve Digitizer – A software for multiple curves digitizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentin ŞPERLEA

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The Curve Digitizer is software that extracts data from an image file representing a graphicand returns them as pairs of numbers which can then be used for further analysis and applications.Numbers can be read on a computer screen stored in files or copied on paper. The final result is adata set that can be used with other tools such as MSEXCEL. Curve Digitizer provides a useful toolfor any researcher or engineer interested in quantifying the data displayed graphically. The image filecan be obtained by scanning a document

  10. Premier Hospital Historical Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — To provide a historical overview of the participating hospitals, before the first project report, Premier Healthcare Informatics has used data already available for...

  11. Iowa Historic Cemeteries

    Data.gov (United States)

    Iowa State University GIS Support and Research Facility — This shape file represents Iowa Historic Cemeteries. Originally it was based on an Iowa DNR point file marking cemetery locations as found on 7.5 min. USGS quad...

  12. VT Roadside Historic Markers

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — Roadside Historic Site Marker program has proven an effective way to commemorate Vermont’s many people, events, and places of regional, statewide, or national...

  13. Historical Climatology Series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Historical Climatology Series (HCS) is a set of climate-related publications published by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center beginning in 1978. HCS is...

  14. Putting experience curves in context : links to and between technology development, market diffusion, learning mechanisms and systems innovation theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Junginger, M.; Suurs, R.; Verbong, G.P.J.; Schaeffer, G.J.; Sark, W. van; Faaij, A. xx

    2010-01-01

    As far as the experience curve approach goes, the focus is mainly on quantifying the cost reductions of the technological artefact (e.g. a wind turbine or biomass power plant) due to technological development. However, the experience curve by itself offers no explanation why costs should decline in

  15. Calibration curves for biological dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guerrero C, C.; Brena V, M. . E-mail cgc@nuclear.inin.mx

    2004-01-01

    The generated information by the investigations in different laboratories of the world, included the ININ, in which settles down that certain class of chromosomal leisure it increases in function of the dose and radiation type, has given by result the obtaining of calibrated curves that are applied in the well-known technique as biological dosimetry. In this work is presented a summary of the work made in the laboratory that includes the calibrated curves for gamma radiation of 60 Cobalt and X rays of 250 k Vp, examples of presumed exposure to ionizing radiation, resolved by means of aberration analysis and the corresponding dose estimate through the equations of the respective curves and finally a comparison among the dose calculations in those people affected by the accident of Ciudad Juarez, carried out by the group of Oak Ridge, USA and those obtained in this laboratory. (Author)

  16. Vertex algebras and algebraic curves

    CERN Document Server

    Frenkel, Edward

    2004-01-01

    Vertex algebras are algebraic objects that encapsulate the concept of operator product expansion from two-dimensional conformal field theory. Vertex algebras are fast becoming ubiquitous in many areas of modern mathematics, with applications to representation theory, algebraic geometry, the theory of finite groups, modular functions, topology, integrable systems, and combinatorics. This book is an introduction to the theory of vertex algebras with a particular emphasis on the relationship with the geometry of algebraic curves. The notion of a vertex algebra is introduced in a coordinate-independent way, so that vertex operators become well defined on arbitrary smooth algebraic curves, possibly equipped with additional data, such as a vector bundle. Vertex algebras then appear as the algebraic objects encoding the geometric structure of various moduli spaces associated with algebraic curves. Therefore they may be used to give a geometric interpretation of various questions of representation theory. The book co...

  17. Curve collection, extension of databases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillemot, F.

    1992-01-01

    Full text: Databases: generally calculated data only. The original measurements: diagrams. Information loss between them Expensive research eg. irradiation, aging, creep etc. Original curves should be stored for reanalysing. The format of the stored curves: a. Data in ASCII files, only numbers b. Other information in strings in a second file Same name, but different extension. Extensions shows the type of the test and the type of the file. EXAMPLES. TEN is tensile information, TED is tensile data, CHN is Charpy informations, CHD is Charpy data. Storing techniques: digitalised measurements, digitalising old curves stored on paper. Use: making catalogues, reanalysing, comparison with new data. Tools: mathematical software packages like quattro, genplot, exel, mathcad, qbasic, pascal, fortran, mathlab, grapher etc. (author)

  18. Rational points on elliptic curves

    CERN Document Server

    Silverman, Joseph H

    2015-01-01

    The theory of elliptic curves involves a pleasing blend of algebra, geometry, analysis, and number theory. This book stresses this interplay as it develops the basic theory, thereby providing an opportunity for advanced undergraduates to appreciate the unity of modern mathematics. At the same time, every effort has been made to use only methods and results commonly included in the undergraduate curriculum. This accessibility, the informal writing style, and a wealth of exercises make Rational Points on Elliptic Curves an ideal introduction for students at all levels who are interested in learning about Diophantine equations and arithmetic geometry. Most concretely, an elliptic curve is the set of zeroes of a cubic polynomial in two variables. If the polynomial has rational coefficients, then one can ask for a description of those zeroes whose coordinates are either integers or rational numbers. It is this number theoretic question that is the main subject of this book. Topics covered include the geometry and ...

  19. Theoretical melting curve of caesium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simozar, S.; Girifalco, L.A.; Pennsylvania Univ., Philadelphia

    1983-01-01

    A statistical-mechanical model is developed to account for the complex melting curve of caesium. The model assumes the existence of three different species of caesium defined by three different electronic states. On the basis of this model, the free energy of melting and the melting curve are computed up to 60 kbar, using the solid-state data and the initial slope of the fusion curve as input parameters. The calculated phase diagram agrees with experiment to within the experimental error. Other thermodynamic properties including the entropy and volume of melting were also computed, and they agree with experiment. Since the theory requires only one adjustable constant, this is taken as strong evidence that the three-species model is satisfactory for caesium. (author)

  20. Migration and the Wage Curve:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brücker, Herbert; Jahn, Elke J.

    in a general equilibrium framework. For the empirical analysis we employ the IABS, a two percent sample of the German labor force. We find that the elasticity of the wage curve is particularly high for young workers and workers with a university degree, while it is low for older workers and workers......  Based on a wage curve approach we examine the labor market effects of migration in Germany. The wage curve relies on the assumption that wages respond to a change in the unemployment rate, albeit imperfectly. This allows one to derive the wage and employment effects of migration simultaneously...... with a vocational degree. The wage and employment effects of migration are moderate: a 1 percent increase in the German labor force through immigration increases the aggregate unemployment rate by less than 0.1 percentage points and reduces average wages by less 0.1 percent. While native workers benefit from...

  1. Laffer Curves and Home Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kotamäki Mauri

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In the earlier related literature, consumption tax rate Laffer curve is found to be strictly increasing (see Trabandt and Uhlig (2011. In this paper, a general equilibrium macro model is augmented by introducing a substitute for private consumption in the form of home production. The introduction of home production brings about an additional margin of adjustment – an increase in consumption tax rate not only decreases labor supply and reduces the consumption tax base but also allows a substitution of market goods with home-produced goods. The main objective of this paper is to show that, after the introduction of home production, the consumption tax Laffer curve exhibits an inverse U-shape. Also the income tax Laffer curves are significantly altered. The result shown in this paper casts doubt on some of the earlier results in the literature.

  2. Complexity of Curved Glass Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosić, T.; Svetel, I.; Cekić, Z.

    2017-11-01

    Despite the increasing number of research on the architectural structures of curvilinear forms and technological and practical improvement of the glass production observed over recent years, there is still a lack of comprehensive codes and standards, recommendations and experience data linked to real-life curved glass structures applications regarding design, manufacture, use, performance and economy. However, more and more complex buildings and structures with the large areas of glass envelope geometrically complex shape are built every year. The aim of the presented research is to collect data on the existing design philosophy on curved glass structure cases. The investigation includes a survey about how architects and engineers deal with different design aspects of curved glass structures with a special focus on the design and construction process, glass types and structural and fixing systems. The current paper gives a brief overview of the survey findings.

  3. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    OpenAIRE

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

  4. Optimization on Spaces of Curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller-Andersen, Jakob

    in Rd, and methods to solve the initial and boundary value problem for geodesics allowing us to compute the Karcher mean and principal components analysis of data of curves. We apply the methods to study shape variation in synthetic data in the Kimia shape database, in HeLa cell nuclei and cycles...... of cardiac deformations. Finally we investigate a new application of Riemannian shape analysis in shape optimization. We setup a simple elliptic model problem, and describe how to apply shape calculus to obtain directional derivatives in the manifold of planar curves. We present an implementation based...

  5. Tracing a planar algebraic curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Falai; Kozak, J.

    1994-09-01

    In this paper, an algorithm that determines a real algebraic curve is outlined. Its basic step is to divide the plane into subdomains that include only simple branches of the algebraic curve without singular points. Each of the branches is then stably and efficiently traced in the particular subdomain. Except for the tracing, the algorithm requires only a couple of simple operations on polynomials that can be carried out exactly if the coefficients are rational, and the determination of zeros of several polynomials of one variable. (author). 5 refs, 4 figs

  6. The New Keynesian Phillips Curve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ólafsson, Tjörvi

    This paper provides a survey on the recent literature on the new Keynesian Phillips curve: the controversies surrounding its microfoundation and estimation, the approaches that have been tried to improve its empirical fit and the challenges it faces adapting to the open-economy framework. The new......, learning or state-dependant pricing. The introduction of openeconomy factors into the new Keynesian Phillips curve complicate matters further as it must capture the nexus between price setting, inflation and the exchange rate. This is nevertheless a crucial feature for any model to be used for inflation...... forecasting in a small open economy like Iceland....

  7. Are snake populations in widespread decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reading, C J; Luiselli, L M; Akani, G C; Bonnet, X; Amori, G; Ballouard, J M; Filippi, E; Naulleau, G; Pearson, D; Rugiero, L

    2010-12-23

    Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root.

  8. The South Carolina bridge-scour envelope curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedict, Stephen T.; Feaster, Toby D.; Caldwell, Andral W.

    2016-09-30

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the South Carolina Department of Transportation, conducted a series of three field investigations to evaluate historical, riverine bridge scour in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain regions of South Carolina. These investigations included data collected at 231 riverine bridges, which lead to the development of bridge-scour envelope curves for clear-water and live-bed components of scour. The application and limitations of the South Carolina bridge-scour envelope curves were documented in four reports, each report addressing selected components of bridge scour. The current investigation (2016) synthesizes the findings of these previous reports into a guidance manual providing an integrated procedure for applying the envelope curves. Additionally, the investigation provides limited verification for selected bridge-scour envelope curves by comparing them to field data collected outside of South Carolina from previously published sources. Although the bridge-scour envelope curves have limitations, they are useful supplementary tools for assessing the potential for scour at riverine bridges in South Carolina.

  9. Signature Curves Statistics of DNA Supercoils

    OpenAIRE

    Shakiban, Cheri; Lloyd, Peter

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we describe the Euclidean signature curves for two dimensional closed curves in the plane and their generalization to closed space curves. The focus will be on discrete numerical methods for approximating such curves. Further we will apply these numerical methods to plot the signature curves related to three-dimensional simulated DNA supercoils. Our primary focus will be on statistical analysis of the data generated for the signature curves of the supercoils. We will try to esta...

  10. Are infant mortality rate declines exponential? The general pattern of 20th century infant mortality rate decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Opuni Marjorie

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Time trends in infant mortality for the 20th century show a curvilinear pattern that most demographers have assumed to be approximately exponential. Virtually all cross-country comparisons and time series analyses of infant mortality have studied the logarithm of infant mortality to account for the curvilinear time trend. However, there is no evidence that the log transform is the best fit for infant mortality time trends. Methods We use maximum likelihood methods to determine the best transformation to fit time trends in infant mortality reduction in the 20th century and to assess the importance of the proper transformation in identifying the relationship between infant mortality and gross domestic product (GDP per capita. We apply the Box Cox transform to infant mortality rate (IMR time series from 18 countries to identify the best fitting value of lambda for each country and for the pooled sample. For each country, we test the value of λ against the null that λ = 0 (logarithmic model and against the null that λ = 1 (linear model. We then demonstrate the importance of selecting the proper transformation by comparing regressions of ln(IMR on same year GDP per capita against Box Cox transformed models. Results Based on chi-squared test statistics, infant mortality decline is best described as an exponential decline only for the United States. For the remaining 17 countries we study, IMR decline is neither best modelled as logarithmic nor as a linear process. Imposing a logarithmic transform on IMR can lead to bias in fitting the relationship between IMR and GDP per capita. Conclusion The assumption that IMR declines are exponential is enshrined in the Preston curve and in nearly all cross-country as well as time series analyses of IMR data since Preston's 1975 paper, but this assumption is seldom correct. Statistical analyses of IMR trends should assess the robustness of findings to transformations other than the log

  11. Dual Smarandache Curves of a Timelike Curve lying on Unit dual Lorentzian Sphere

    OpenAIRE

    Kahraman, Tanju; Hüseyin Ugurlu, Hasan

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we give Darboux approximation for dual Smarandache curves of time like curve on unit dual Lorentzian sphere. Firstly, we define the four types of dual Smarandache curves of a timelike curve lying on dual Lorentzian sphere.

  12. Electro-Mechanical Resonance Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenslade, Thomas B., Jr.

    2018-01-01

    Recently I have been investigating the frequency response of galvanometers. These are direct-current devices used to measure small currents. By using a low-frequency function generator to supply the alternating-current signal and a stopwatch smartphone app to measure the period, I was able to take data to allow a resonance curve to be drawn. This…

  13. Texas curve margin of safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    This software can be used to assist with the assessment of margin of safety for a horizontal curve. It is intended for use by engineers and technicians responsible for safety analysis or management of rural highway pavement or traffic control devices...

  14. Principal Curves on Riemannian Manifolds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauberg, Soren

    2016-09-01

    Euclidean statistics are often generalized to Riemannian manifolds by replacing straight-line interpolations with geodesic ones. While these Riemannian models are familiar-looking, they are restricted by the inflexibility of geodesics, and they rely on constructions which are optimal only in Euclidean domains. We consider extensions of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to Riemannian manifolds. Classic Riemannian approaches seek a geodesic curve passing through the mean that optimizes a criteria of interest. The requirements that the solution both is geodesic and must pass through the mean tend to imply that the methods only work well when the manifold is mostly flat within the support of the generating distribution. We argue that instead of generalizing linear Euclidean models, it is more fruitful to generalize non-linear Euclidean models. Specifically, we extend the classic Principal Curves from Hastie & Stuetzle to data residing on a complete Riemannian manifold. We show that for elliptical distributions in the tangent of spaces of constant curvature, the standard principal geodesic is a principal curve. The proposed model is simple to compute and avoids many of the pitfalls of traditional geodesic approaches. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the Riemannian principal curves on several manifolds and datasets.

  15. Elliptic curves and primality proving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkin, A. O. L.; Morain, F.

    1993-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to describe the theory and implementation of the Elliptic Curve Primality Proving algorithm. Problema, numeros primos a compositis dignoscendi, hosque in factores suos primos resolvendi, ad gravissima ac utilissima totius arithmeticae pertinere, et geometrarum tum veterum tum recentiorum industriam ac sagacitatem occupavisse, tam notum est, ut de hac re copiose loqui superfluum foret.

  16. A Curve for all Reasons

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    from biology, feel that every pattern in the living world, ranging from the folding of ... curves band c have the same rate of increase but reach different asymptotes. If these .... not at x = 0, but at xo' which is the minimum size at birth that will permit ...

  17. Survival curves for irradiated cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibson, D.K.

    1975-01-01

    The subject of the lecture is the probability of survival of biological cells which have been subjected to ionising radiation. The basic mathematical theories of cell survival as a function of radiation dose are developed. A brief comparison with observed survival curves is made. (author)

  18. Mentorship, learning curves, and balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Meryl S; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Quintessenza, James A; Chai, Paul J; Lindberg, Harald L; Dickey, Jamie; Ungerleider, Ross M

    2007-09-01

    Professionals working in the arena of health care face a variety of challenges as their careers evolve and develop. In this review, we analyze the role of mentorship, learning curves, and balance in overcoming challenges that all such professionals are likely to encounter. These challenges can exist both in professional and personal life. As any professional involved in health care matures, complex professional skills must be mastered, and new professional skills must be acquired. These skills are both technical and judgmental. In most circumstances, these skills must be learned. In 2007, despite the continued need for obtaining new knowledge and learning new skills, the professional and public tolerance for a "learning curve" is much less than in previous decades. Mentorship is the key to success in these endeavours. The success of mentorship is two-sided, with responsibilities for both the mentor and the mentee. The benefits of this relationship must be bidirectional. It is the responsibility of both the student and the mentor to assure this bidirectional exchange of benefit. This relationship requires time, patience, dedication, and to some degree selflessness. This mentorship will ultimately be the best tool for mastering complex professional skills and maturing through various learning curves. Professional mentorship also requires that mentors identify and explicitly teach their mentees the relational skills and abilities inherent in learning the management of the triad of self, relationships with others, and professional responsibilities.Up to two decades ago, a learning curve was tolerated, and even expected, while professionals involved in healthcare developed the techniques that allowed for the treatment of previously untreatable diseases. Outcomes have now improved to the point that this type of learning curve is no longer acceptable to the public. Still, professionals must learn to perform and develop independence and confidence. The responsibility to

  19. Early-Transition Output Decline Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crt Kostevc

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we revisit the issue of aggregate output decline that took place in the early transition period. We propose an alternative explanation of output decline that is applicable to Central- and Eastern-European countries. In the first part of the paper we develop a simple dynamic general equilibrium model that builds on work by Gomulka and Lane (2001. In particular, we consider price liberalization, interpreted as elimination of distortionary taxation, as a trigger of the output decline. We show that price liberalization in interaction with heterogeneous adjustment costs and non-employment benefits lead to aggregate output decline and surge in wage inequality. While these patterns are consistent with actual dynamics in CEE countries, this model cannot generate output decline in all sectors. Instead sectors that were initially taxed even exhibit output growth. Thus, in the second part we consider an alternative general equilibrium model with only one production sector and two types of labor and distortion in a form of wage compression during the socialist era. The trigger for labor mobility and consequently output decline is wage liberalization. Assuming heterogeneity of workers in terms of adjustment costs and non-employment benefits can explain output decline in all industries.

  20. Drivers and moderators of business decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Pretorius

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Reports of business failure elicit various reactions, while research in this domain often appears to be limited by a lack of access to information about failure and by the negativity that surrounds it. Those who have experienced failure do not readily talk about it, or they disappear from the radar screen of researchers. Yet failure is preceded by decline which, when focused on strategically, can reduce eventual failures if early action is taken. The main purpose of this study is to develop a conceptual framework or typology of the drivers and moderators of business decline. Design/methodology/approach: After applying the "grounded theory" approach to the academic literature on decline and failure, a conceptual framework for the variables that drive and moderate business decline is proposed. Findings: The study proposes that decline has three core drivers, three peripheral drivers and four moderators. The core drivers identified are: resource munificence; leadership as origin; and causality (strategic versus operational origin of decline. The three peripheral drivers are: unique preconditions; continuous decisions impact; and extremes dichotomy. The study describes four moderators of the drivers: life cycle stage; stakeholder perspective; quantitative versus qualitative nature of signs and causes; and finally the age and size effects. Research limitations/implications: The proposed conceptual framework is based on literature only, although it has found support during discussions with practitioners. It is proposed to readers of this journal for scrutiny and validation. Practical implications: Strategists need to understand what drives decline in order to act timeously; practitioners who have an insight into the moderators with their impacts could make better decisions in response to decline in organisations and possibly avoid business failure. Originality/Value: Understanding business decline is still a huge theoretical challenge, which

  1. Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis. A Survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinda, Soumyananda

    2004-01-01

    The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis postulates an inverted-U-shaped relationship between different pollutants and per capita income, i.e., environmental pressure increases up to a certain level as income goes up; after that, it decreases. An EKC actually reveals how a technically specified measurement of environmental quality changes as the fortunes of a country change. A sizeable literature on EKC has grown in recent period. The common point of all the studies is the assertion that the environmental quality deteriorates at the early stages of economic development/growth and subsequently improves at the later stages. In other words, environmental pressure increases faster than income at early stages of development and slows down relative to GDP growth at higher income levels. This paper reviews some theoretical developments and empirical studies dealing with EKC phenomenon. Possible explanations for this EKC are seen in (1) the progress of economic development, from clean agrarian economy to polluting industrial economy to clean service economy; (2) tendency of people with higher income having higher preference for environmental quality, etc. Evidence of the existence of the EKC has been questioned from several corners. Only some air quality indicators, especially local pollutants, show the evidence of an EKC. However, an EKC is empirically observed, till there is no agreement in the literature on the income level at which environmental degradation starts declining. This paper provides an overview of the EKC literature, background history, conceptual insights, policy and the conceptual and methodological critique

  2. Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis. A Survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dinda, Soumyananda [Economic Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, 203, B.T. Road, Kolkata-108 (India)

    2004-08-01

    The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis postulates an inverted-U-shaped relationship between different pollutants and per capita income, i.e., environmental pressure increases up to a certain level as income goes up; after that, it decreases. An EKC actually reveals how a technically specified measurement of environmental quality changes as the fortunes of a country change. A sizeable literature on EKC has grown in recent period. The common point of all the studies is the assertion that the environmental quality deteriorates at the early stages of economic development/growth and subsequently improves at the later stages. In other words, environmental pressure increases faster than income at early stages of development and slows down relative to GDP growth at higher income levels. This paper reviews some theoretical developments and empirical studies dealing with EKC phenomenon. Possible explanations for this EKC are seen in (1) the progress of economic development, from clean agrarian economy to polluting industrial economy to clean service economy; (2) tendency of people with higher income having higher preference for environmental quality, etc. Evidence of the existence of the EKC has been questioned from several corners. Only some air quality indicators, especially local pollutants, show the evidence of an EKC. However, an EKC is empirically observed, till there is no agreement in the literature on the income level at which environmental degradation starts declining. This paper provides an overview of the EKC literature, background history, conceptual insights, policy and the conceptual and methodological critique.

  3. Path Integrals and Anomalies in Curved Space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Louko, Jorma

    2007-01-01

    Bastianelli and van Nieuwenhuizen's monograph 'Path Integrals and Anomalies in Curved Space' collects in one volume the results of the authors' 15-year research programme on anomalies that arise in Feynman diagrams of quantum field theories on curved manifolds. The programme was spurred by the path-integral techniques introduced in Alvarez-Gaume and Witten's renowned 1983 paper on gravitational anomalies which, together with the anomaly cancellation paper by Green and Schwarz, led to the string theory explosion of the 1980s. The authors have produced a tour de force, giving a comprehensive and pedagogical exposition of material that is central to current research. The first part of the book develops from scratch a formalism for defining and evaluating quantum mechanical path integrals in nonlinear sigma models, using time slicing regularization, mode regularization and dimensional regularization. The second part applies this formalism to quantum fields of spin 0, 1/2, 1 and 3/2 and to self-dual antisymmetric tensor fields. The book concludes with a discussion of gravitational anomalies in 10-dimensional supergravities, for both classical and exceptional gauge groups. The target audience is researchers and graduate students in curved spacetime quantum field theory and string theory, and the aims, style and pedagogical level have been chosen with this audience in mind. Path integrals are treated as calculational tools, and the notation and terminology are throughout tailored to calculational convenience, rather than to mathematical rigour. The style is closer to that of an exceedingly thorough and self-contained review article than to that of a textbook. As the authors mention, the first part of the book can be used as an introduction to path integrals in quantum mechanics, although in a classroom setting perhaps more likely as supplementary reading than a primary class text. Readers outside the core audience, including this reviewer, will gain from the book a

  4. The decline of hysterectomy for benign disease.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Horgan, R P

    2012-01-31

    Hysterectomy is one of the most common gynaecological surgical procedures performed but there appears to be a decline in the performance of this procedure in Ireland in recent times. We set out to establish the extent of the decline of hysterectomy and to explore possible explanations. Data for hysterectomy for benign disease from Ireland was obtained from the Hospital In-Patient Enquiry Scheme (HIPE) section of the Economic and Social Research Institute for the years 1999 to 2006. The total number of hysterectomies performed for benign disease showed a consistent decline during this time. There was a 36% reduction in the number of abdominal hysterectomy procedures performed.

  5. Bayesian Inference of Nonstationary Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Infrastructure Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    each IDF curve and subsequently used to force a calibrated and validated precipitation - runoff model. Probability-based, risk-informed hydrologic...ERDC/CHL CHETN-X-2 March 2016 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Bayesian Inference of Nonstationary Precipitation Intensity...based means by which to develop local precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves using historical rainfall time series data collected for

  6. Biblical Interpretation Beyond Historicity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biblical Interpretation beyond Historicity evaluates the new perspectives that have emerged since the crisis over historicity in the 1970s and 80s in the field of biblical scholarship. Several new studies in the field, as well as the ‘deconstructive’ side of literary criticism that emerged from...... writers such as Derrida and Wittgenstein, among others, lead biblical scholars today to view the texts of the Bible more as literary narratives than as sources for a history of Israel. Increased interest in archaeological and anthropological studies in writing the history of Palestine and the ancient Near...... and the commitment to a new approach to both the history of Palestine and the Bible’s place in ancient history. This volume features essays from a range of highly regarded scholars, and is divided into three sections: “Beyond Historicity”, which explores alternative historical roles for the Bible, “Greek Connections...

  7. Why were historical period ports of Goa located away from the coast? The decline of Gopakapatana

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Tripati, S.; Mascarenhas, A.; ManiMurali, R.

    are: (a) bigger ships which had to carry more cargo, (b) larger vessels could withstand the flow of current, (c) advancement in shipbuilding and navigation techniques, and (d) sediment deposition leading to navigational hazards In the case of Goa...

  8. The growth and decline of health community centres in the Netherlands: a macro-historical analysis.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batenburg, R.; Eyck, A.

    2011-01-01

    Several threats affect the survival of small, independent retail companies. Adoption and use of Point-of-Sale (POS) systems may offer important benefits to counter these threats. POS systems are not widely used by these retailers, however. This research investigates the determinants of the adoption

  9. Brain Metastases Treatment Worsens Cognitive Decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    In some patients with cancer that has spread to the brain, whole brain radiation following radiosurgery causes more severe cognitive decline and does not improve survival compared with radiosurgery alone, a new study has found.

  10. Predictors of combined cognitive and physical decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Atkinson, H.H.; Cesari, M.; Kritchevsky, S.B.; Penninx, B.W.J.H.; Fried, L.P.; Guralnik, J.M.; Williamson, J.D.

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence and correlates of combined declines in cognitive and physical performance. DESIGN: Cohort study of community-dwelling older women with moderate to severe disability. SETTING: The community surrounding Baltimore, Maryland. PARTICIPANTS: Participants in the

  11. Decline and conservation of bumble bees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goulson, D; Lye, G C; Darvill, B

    2008-01-01

    Declines in bumble bee species in the past 60 years are well documented in Europe, where they are driven primarily by habitat loss and declines in floral abundance and diversity resulting from agricultural intensification. Impacts of habitat degradation and fragmentation are likely to be compounded by the social nature of bumble bees and their largely monogamous breeding system, which renders their effective population size low. Hence, populations are susceptible to stochastic extinction events and inbreeding. In North America, catastrophic declines of some bumble bee species since the 1990s are probably attributable to the accidental introduction of a nonnative parasite from Europe, a result of global trade in domesticated bumble bee colonies used for pollination of greenhouse crops. Given the importance of bumble bees as pollinators of crops and wildflowers, steps must be taken to prevent further declines. Suggested measures include tight regulation of commercial bumble bee use and targeted use of environmentally comparable schemes to enhance floristic diversity in agricultural landscapes.

  12. Is racial prejudice declining in Britain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Robert

    2008-12-01

    This article employs two previously neglected indicators of racial prejudice from the British Social Attitudes surveys to examine the social distribution of prejudices against black and Asian Britons. Three hypotheses are proposed and tested: that racial prejudice is declining in Britain; that this decline is principally generational in nature; and that greater prejudice is shown towards more culturally distinct Asian minorities than black minorities. Strong evidence is found for the first two hypotheses, with evidence of an overall decline in prejudice and of a sharp decline in prejudices among generations who have grown up since mass black and Asian immigration began in the 1950s. Little evidence is found for the third hypothesis: British reactions towards black and Asian minorities are broadly similar suggesting racial differences may still be the main factor prompting white hostility to British minorities.

  13. The Decline in America's Reputation: Why

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2008-01-01

    .... ( We are all Americans now. ) Since then, polls conducted by the U.S. Government and respected private firms have revealed a precipitous decline in favorability toward the United States and its foreign policy...

  14. Understanding Amphibian Declines Through Geographic Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallant, Alisa

    2006-01-01

    Growing concern over worldwide amphibian declines warrants serious examination. Amphibians are important to the proper functioning of ecosystems and provide many direct benefits to humans in the form of pest and disease control, pharmaceutical compounds, and even food. Amphibians have permeable skin and rely on both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems during different seasons and stages of their lives. Their association with these ecosystems renders them likely to serve as sensitive indicators of environmental change. While much research on amphibian declines has centered on mysterious causes, or on causes that directly affect humans (global warming, chemical pollution, ultraviolet-B radiation), most declines are the result of habitat loss and habitat alteration. Improving our ability to characterize, model, and monitor the interactions between environmental variables and amphibian habitats is key to addressing amphibian conservation. In 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) to address issues surrounding amphibian declines.

  15. The global financial crisis and neighborhood decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwiers, Merle; Bolt, Gideon; Van Ham, Maarten; Van Kempen, Ronald

    2016-01-01

    Neighborhood decline is a complex and multidimensional process. National and regional variations in economic and political structures (including varieties in national welfare state arrangements), combined with differences in neighborhood history, development, and population composition, make it

  16. The Management of Decline: An International Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altbach, Philip G.

    1984-01-01

    The responses of higher education institutions in the United States, England, Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, and the rest of Western Europe to declining enrollments, changing financial support, fiscal problems, and changes in the professoriate and academic careers are compared. (MSE)

  17. Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brienen, R J W; Phillips, O L; Feldpausch, T R; Gloor, E; Baker, T R; Lloyd, J; Lopez-Gonzalez, G; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A; Malhi, Y; Lewis, S L; Vásquez Martinez, R; Alexiades, M; Álvarez Dávila, E; Alvarez-Loayza, P; Andrade, A; Aragão, L E O C; Araujo-Murakami, A; Arets, E J M M; Arroyo, L; Aymard C, G A; Bánki, O S; Baraloto, C; Barroso, J; Bonal, D; Boot, R G A; Camargo, J L C; Castilho, C V; Chama, V; Chao, K J; Chave, J; Comiskey, J A; Cornejo Valverde, F; da Costa, L; de Oliveira, E A; Di Fiore, A; Erwin, T L; Fauset, S; Forsthofer, M; Galbraith, D R; Grahame, E S; Groot, N; Hérault, B; Higuchi, N; Honorio Coronado, E N; Keeling, H; Killeen, T J; Laurance, W F; Laurance, S; Licona, J; Magnussen, W E; Marimon, B S; Marimon-Junior, B H; Mendoza, C; Neill, D A; Nogueira, E M; Núñez, P; Pallqui Camacho, N C; Parada, A; Pardo-Molina, G; Peacock, J; Peña-Claros, M; Pickavance, G C; Pitman, N C A; Poorter, L; Prieto, A; Quesada, C A; Ramírez, F; Ramírez-Angulo, H; Restrepo, Z; Roopsind, A; Rudas, A; Salomão, R P; Schwarz, M; Silva, N; Silva-Espejo, J E; Silveira, M; Stropp, J; Talbot, J; ter Steege, H; Teran-Aguilar, J; Terborgh, J; Thomas-Caesar, R; Toledo, M; Torello-Raventos, M; Umetsu, R K; van der Heijden, G M F; van der Hout, P; Guimarães Vieira, I C; Vieira, S A; Vilanova, E; Vos, V A; Zagt, R J

    2015-03-19

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

  18. A catalog of special plane curves

    CERN Document Server

    Lawrence, J Dennis

    2014-01-01

    Among the largest, finest collections available-illustrated not only once for each curve, but also for various values of any parameters present. Covers general properties of curves and types of derived curves. Curves illustrated by a CalComp digital incremental plotter. 12 illustrations.

  19. Computation of undulator tuning curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dejus, Roger J.

    1997-01-01

    Computer codes for fast computation of on-axis brilliance tuning curves and flux tuning curves have been developed. They are valid for an ideal device (regular planar device or a helical device) using the Bessel function formalism. The effects of the particle beam emittance and the beam energy spread on the spectrum are taken into account. The applicability of the codes and the importance of magnetic field errors of real insertion devices are addressed. The validity of the codes has been experimentally verified at the APS and observed discrepancies are in agreement with predicted reduction of intensities due to magnetic field errors. The codes are distributed as part of the graphical user interface XOP (X-ray OPtics utilities), which simplifies execution and viewing of the results

  20. Curved canals: Ancestral files revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jain Nidhi

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to provide an insight into different techniques of cleaning and shaping of curved root canals with hand instruments. Although a plethora of root canal instruments like ProFile, ProTaper, LightSpeed ® etc dominate the current scenario, the inexpensive conventional root canal hand files such as K-files and flexible files can be used to get optimum results when handled meticulously. Special emphasis has been put on the modifications in biomechanical canal preparation in a variety of curved canal cases. This article compiles a series of clinical cases of root canals with curvatures in the middle and apical third and with S-shaped curvatures that were successfully completed by employing only conventional root canal hand instruments.

  1. Invariance for Single Curved Manifold

    KAUST Repository

    Castro, Pedro Machado Manhaes de

    2012-01-01

    Recently, it has been shown that, for Lambert illumination model, solely scenes composed by developable objects with a very particular albedo distribution produce an (2D) image with isolines that are (almost) invariant to light direction change. In this work, we provide and investigate a more general framework, and we show that, in general, the requirement for such in variances is quite strong, and is related to the differential geometry of the objects. More precisely, it is proved that single curved manifolds, i.e., manifolds such that at each point there is at most one principal curvature direction, produce invariant is surfaces for a certain relevant family of energy functions. In the three-dimensional case, the associated energy function corresponds to the classical Lambert illumination model with albedo. This result is also extended for finite-dimensional scenes composed by single curved objects. © 2012 IEEE.

  2. Invariance for Single Curved Manifold

    KAUST Repository

    Castro, Pedro Machado Manhaes de

    2012-08-01

    Recently, it has been shown that, for Lambert illumination model, solely scenes composed by developable objects with a very particular albedo distribution produce an (2D) image with isolines that are (almost) invariant to light direction change. In this work, we provide and investigate a more general framework, and we show that, in general, the requirement for such in variances is quite strong, and is related to the differential geometry of the objects. More precisely, it is proved that single curved manifolds, i.e., manifolds such that at each point there is at most one principal curvature direction, produce invariant is surfaces for a certain relevant family of energy functions. In the three-dimensional case, the associated energy function corresponds to the classical Lambert illumination model with albedo. This result is also extended for finite-dimensional scenes composed by single curved objects. © 2012 IEEE.

  3. Curved Folded Plate Timber Structures

    OpenAIRE

    Buri, Hans Ulrich; Stotz, Ivo; Weinand, Yves

    2011-01-01

    This work investigates the development of a Curved Origami Prototype made with timber panels. In the last fifteen years the timber industry has developed new, large size, timber panels. Composition and dimensions of these panels and the possibility of milling them with Computer Numerical Controlled machines shows great potential for folded plate structures. To generate the form of these structures we were inspired by Origami, the Japanese art of paper folding. Common paper tessellations are c...

  4. Historical Collage Drawings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billington, Lisa

    2010-01-01

    Helping students learn how to interpret and analyze imagery is an important skill. With last year's historical election of the first African American president, it was an opportune time to explore where Americans are going as a nation and what kind of future they envision. Middle-school students are eager to give their opinions, but learning to…

  5. Historical centres: changing definitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Lazzarotti

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Since the end of the Second World War, the architectural and planning culture has been showing a fluctuating attention to the theme of historical centres and their enhancement. First of all this uneven progress explains the difficulty to reach a homogeneous definition and this is still lacking. During a long phase of this period, the historical parts of the town were considered as objects to be preserved in an integral way, as urban monuments. This is mostly due to the high symbolic value of these settlements, that represent fundamental landmarks. Identity building and empowerment of local communities are indispensable conditions for any development programme, especially in the case of centres or other historic environments at risk of abandonment. The progressive evolution of this concept brings awareness of the impossibility of separating – either in analytical or in planning terms ­ historical centres from their urban and territorial contexts, which are linked by mutual, deep relationships. This article attempts to retrace the steps signaled by the publication of international documents and conventions, from the Charter of Gubbio (1960 to the Charter of Krakow and the European Landscape Convention (2000; they obviously represent particular points of view, not exhaustive of the richness of the positions in the debate, but extremely significant in terms of diffusion and consensus.

  6. Political Correctness, Historically Speaking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipset, Seymour Martin

    1992-01-01

    This historical review examines conservative and liberal attitudes on U.S. campuses in terms of political, ethnic, racial, gender, and religious issues. Discussed are the era of protest (1960s), the era of quiescence and move toward conservatism (1970-84), reversing the trend via increasing faculty liberalism, and contemporary opinion (a…

  7. Historical dictionary of librarianship

    CERN Document Server

    Quinn, Mary Ellen

    2014-01-01

    The Historical Dictionary of Librarianship focuses on librarianship as a modern, organized profession, emphasizing the period beginning in the mid-nineteenth century. Author Mary Ellen Quinn relates the history of this profession through a chronology, an introductory essay, appendixes, and an extensive bibliography.

  8. A historical overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dan Scurlock; Deborah M. Finch

    1997-01-01

    This chapter reviews the historical: 1) occupancy, use of and impacts on ponderosa pine forests by early American Indians and European settlers; and 2) the human use of and impacts on birds in ponderosa pine forests. Contemporary ecology and human use of ponderosa pine forests are described in this publication by Moir et al. and Raish et al. Recent human impacts on...

  9. Projection-based curve clustering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auder, Benjamin; Fischer, Aurelie

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on unsupervised curve classification in the context of nuclear industry. At the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), Cadarache (France), the thermal-hydraulic computer code CATHARE is used to study the reliability of reactor vessels. The code inputs are physical parameters and the outputs are time evolution curves of a few other physical quantities. As the CATHARE code is quite complex and CPU time-consuming, it has to be approximated by a regression model. This regression process involves a clustering step. In the present paper, the CATHARE output curves are clustered using a k-means scheme, with a projection onto a lower dimensional space. We study the properties of the empirically optimal cluster centres found by the clustering method based on projections, compared with the 'true' ones. The choice of the projection basis is discussed, and an algorithm is implemented to select the best projection basis among a library of orthonormal bases. The approach is illustrated on a simulated example and then applied to the industrial problem. (authors)

  10. Growth curves for Laron syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laron, Z; Lilos, P; Klinger, B

    1993-01-01

    Growth curves for children with Laron syndrome were constructed on the basis of repeated measurements made throughout infancy, childhood, and puberty in 24 (10 boys, 14 girls) of the 41 patients with this syndrome investigated in our clinic. Growth retardation was already noted at birth, the birth length ranging from 42 to 46 cm in the 12/20 available measurements. The postnatal growth curves deviated sharply from the normal from infancy on. Both sexes showed no clear pubertal spurt. Girls completed their growth between the age of 16-19 years to a final mean (SD) height of 119 (8.5) cm whereas the boys continued growing beyond the age of 20 years, achieving a final height of 124 (8.5) cm. At all ages the upper to lower body segment ratio was more than 2 SD above the normal mean. These growth curves constitute a model not only for primary, hereditary insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) deficiency (Laron syndrome) but also for untreated secondary IGF-I deficiencies such as growth hormone gene deletion and idiopathic congenital isolated growth hormone deficiency. They should also be useful in the follow up of children with Laron syndrome treated with biosynthetic recombinant IGF-I. PMID:8333769

  11. Elementary particles in curved spaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazanu, I.

    2004-01-01

    The theories in particle physics are developed currently, in Minkowski space-time starting from the Poincare group. A physical theory in flat space can be seen as the limit of a more general physical theory in a curved space. At the present time, a theory of particles in curved space does not exist, and thus the only possibility is to extend the existent theories in these spaces. A formidable obstacle to the extension of physical models is the absence of groups of motion in more general Riemann spaces. A space of constant curvature has a group of motion that, although differs from that of a flat space, has the same number of parameters and could permit some generalisations. In this contribution we try to investigate some physical implications of the presumable existence of elementary particles in curved space. In de Sitter space (dS) the invariant rest mass is a combination of the Poincare rest mass and the generalised angular momentum of a particle and it permits to establish a correlation with the vacuum energy and with the cosmological constant. The consequences are significant because in an experiment the local structure of space-time departs from the Minkowski space and becomes a dS or AdS space-time. Discrete symmetry characteristics of the dS/AdS group suggest some arguments for the possible existence of the 'mirror matter'. (author)

  12. Dual Smarandache Curves and Smarandache Ruled Surfaces

    OpenAIRE

    Tanju KAHRAMAN; Mehmet ÖNDER; H. Hüseyin UGURLU

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, by considering dual geodesic trihedron (dual Darboux frame) we define dual Smarandache curves lying fully on dual unit sphere S^2 and corresponding to ruled surfaces. We obtain the relationships between the elements of curvature of dual spherical curve (ruled surface) x(s) and its dual Smarandache curve (Smarandache ruled surface) x1(s) and we give an example for dual Smarandache curves of a dual spherical curve.

  13. Geometry of minimal rational curves on Fano manifolds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, J -M [Korea Institute for Advanced Study, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-12-15

    This lecture is an introduction to my joint project with N. Mok where we develop a geometric theory of Fano manifolds of Picard number 1 by studying the collection of tangent directions of minimal rational curves through a generic point. After a sketch of some historical background, the fundamental object of this project, the variety of minimal rational tangents, is defined and various examples are examined. Then some results on the variety of minimal rational tangents are discussed including an extension theorem for holomorphic maps preserving the geometric structure. Some applications of this theory to the stability of the tangent bundles and the rigidity of generically finite morphisms are given. (author)

  14. The Remarkable Place of the UV-Curve in Economic Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Rodenburg, Peter

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of the impact the UV-curve had on economic theory and to provide an account of the subsequent radical changes in its place and role over the decades since its first appearance in 1958. The paper traces the historical development of the UV-curve and argues that the role of the UV-curve has changed from a measuring device to a graphical representation of full employment to an axiom necessary for matching models of unemployment. This changing r...

  15. New modelling of transient well test and rate decline analysis for a horizontal well in a multiple-zone reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nie, Ren-Shi; Guo, Jian-Chun; Jia, Yong-Lu; Zhu, Shui-Qiao; Rao, Zheng; Zhang, Chun-Guang

    2011-01-01

    The no-type curve with negative skin of a horizontal well has been found in the current research. Negative skin is very significant to transient well test and rate decline analysis. This paper first presents the negative skin problem where the type curves with negative skin of a horizontal well are oscillatory. In order to solve the problem, we propose a new model of transient well test and rate decline analysis for a horizontal well in a multiple-zone composite reservoir. A new dimensionless definition of r D is introduced in the dimensionless mathematical modelling under different boundaries. The model is solved using the Laplace transform and separation of variables techniques. In Laplace space, the solutions for both constant rate production and constant wellbore pressure production are expressed in a unified formula. We provide graphs and thorough analysis of the new standard type curves for both well test and rate decline analysis; the characteristics of type curves are the reflections of horizontal well production in a multiple-zone reservoir. An important contribution of our paper is that our model removed the oscillation in type curves and thus solved the negative skin problem. We also show that the characteristics of type curves depend heavily on the properties of different zones, skin factor, well length, formation thickness, etc. Our research can be applied to a real case study

  16. A note on families of fragility curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, S.; Bier, V.M.; Bley, D.C.

    1989-01-01

    In the quantitative assessment of seismic risk, uncertainty in the fragility of a structural component is usually expressed by putting forth a family of fragility curves, with probability serving as the parameter of the family. Commonly, a lognormal shape is used both for the individual curves and for the expression of uncertainty over the family. A so-called composite single curve can also be drawn and used for purposes of approximation. This composite curve is often regarded as equivalent to the mean curve of the family. The equality seems intuitively reasonable, but according to the authors has never been proven. The paper presented proves this equivalence hypothesis mathematically. Moreover, the authors show that this equivalence hypothesis between fragility curves is itself equivalent to an identity property of the standard normal probability curve. Thus, in the course of proving the fragility curve hypothesis, the authors have also proved a rather obscure, but interesting and perhaps previously unrecognized, property of the standard normal curve

  17. Periodontitis and Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer's Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Ide

    Full Text Available Periodontitis is common in the elderly and may become more common in Alzheimer's disease because of a reduced ability to take care of oral hygiene as the disease progresses. Elevated antibodies to periodontal bacteria are associated with an increased systemic pro-inflammatory state. Elsewhere raised serum pro-inflammatory cytokines have been associated with an increased rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease. We hypothesized that periodontitis would be associated with increased dementia severity and a more rapid cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease. We aimed to determine if periodontitis in Alzheimer's disease is associated with both increased dementia severity and cognitive decline, and an increased systemic pro inflammatory state. In a six month observational cohort study 60 community dwelling participants with mild to moderate Alzheimer's Disease were cognitively assessed and a blood sample taken for systemic inflammatory markers. Dental health was assessed by a dental hygienist, blind to cognitive outcomes. All assessments were repeated at six months. The presence of periodontitis at baseline was not related to baseline cognitive state but was associated with a six fold increase in the rate of cognitive decline as assessed by the ADAS-cog over a six month follow up period. Periodontitis at baseline was associated with a relative increase in the pro-inflammatory state over the six month follow up period. Our data showed that periodontitis is associated with an increase in cognitive decline in Alzheimer's Disease, independent to baseline cognitive state, which may be mediated through effects on systemic inflammation.

  18. Observable Zitterbewegung in curved spacetimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobakhidze, Archil; Manning, Adrian; Tureanu, Anca

    2016-06-01

    Zitterbewegung, as it was originally described by Schrödinger, is an unphysical, non-observable effect. We verify whether the effect can be observed in non-inertial reference frames/curved spacetimes, where the ambiguity in defining particle states results in a mixing of positive and negative frequency modes. We explicitly demonstrate that such a mixing is in fact necessary to obtain the correct classical value for a particle's velocity in a uniformly accelerated reference frame, whereas in cosmological spacetime a particle does indeed exhibit Zitterbewegung.

  19. Observable Zitterbewegung in curved spacetimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobakhidze, Archil, E-mail: archilk@physics.usyd.edu.au [ARC Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Terascale, School of Physics, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); Manning, Adrian, E-mail: a.manning@physics.usyd.edu.au [ARC Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Terascale, School of Physics, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); Tureanu, Anca, E-mail: anca.tureanu@helsinki.fi [Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, 00014 Helsinki (Finland)

    2016-06-10

    Zitterbewegung, as it was originally described by Schrödinger, is an unphysical, non-observable effect. We verify whether the effect can be observed in non-inertial reference frames/curved spacetimes, where the ambiguity in defining particle states results in a mixing of positive and negative frequency modes. We explicitly demonstrate that such a mixing is in fact necessary to obtain the correct classical value for a particle's velocity in a uniformly accelerated reference frame, whereas in cosmological spacetime a particle does indeed exhibit Zitterbewegung.

  20. Differential geometry curves, surfaces, manifolds

    CERN Document Server

    Kohnel, Wolfgang

    2002-01-01

    This carefully written book is an introduction to the beautiful ideas and results of differential geometry. The first half covers the geometry of curves and surfaces, which provide much of the motivation and intuition for the general theory. Special topics that are explored include Frenet frames, ruled surfaces, minimal surfaces and the Gauss-Bonnet theorem. The second part is an introduction to the geometry of general manifolds, with particular emphasis on connections and curvature. The final two chapters are insightful examinations of the special cases of spaces of constant curvature and Einstein manifolds. The text is illustrated with many figures and examples. The prerequisites are undergraduate analysis and linear algebra.

  1. LINS Curve in Romanian Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilian Dobrescu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents theoretical considerations and empirical evidence to test the validity of the Laffer in Narrower Sense (LINS curve as a parabola with a maximum. Attention is focused on the so-called legal-effective tax gap (letg. The econometric application is based on statistical data (1990-2013 for Romania as an emerging European economy. Three cointegrating regressions (fully modified least squares, canonical cointegrating regression and dynamic least squares and three algorithms, which are based on instrumental variables (two-stage least squares, generalized method of moments, and limited information maximum likelihood, are involved.

  2. Historic Eastern Canadian earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asmis, G.J.K.; Atchinson, R.J.

    1981-01-01

    Nuclear power plants licensed in Canada have been designed to resist earthquakes: not all plants, however, have been explicitly designed to the same level of earthquake induced forces. Understanding the nature of strong ground motion near the source of the earthquake is still very tentative. This paper reviews historical and scientific accounts of the three strongest earthquakes - St. Lawrence (1925), Temiskaming (1935), Cornwall (1944) - that have occurred in Canada in 'modern' times, field studies of near-field strong ground motion records and their resultant damage or non-damage to industrial facilities, and numerical modelling of earthquake sources and resultant wave propagation to produce accelerograms consistent with the above historical record and field studies. It is concluded that for future construction of NPP's near-field strong motion must be explicitly considered in design

  3. Fractal Property in the Light Curve of BL Lac Object S5 0716+714

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2016-01-27

    Jan 27, 2016 ... In this paper, we compile the historical R-band data of S5 0716+714 from literature and obtain its fractal dimension by using a fractal method and then simulate the data with the Weierstrass–Mandelbrot (W–M) function. It is considered that the light curve has a fractal property.

  4. Potential errors when fitting experience curves by means of spreadsheet software

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Sark, W.G.J.H.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074628526; Alsema, E.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073416258

    2010-01-01

    Progress ratios (PRs) are widely used in forecasting development of many technologies; they are derived from historical data represented in experience curves. Fitting the double logarithmic graphs is easily done with spreadsheet software like Microsoft Excel, by adding a trend line to the graph.

  5. Accuracy of progress ratios determined from experience curves: the case of photovoltaic technology development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Sark, W.G.J.H.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074628526; Alsema, E.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073416258; Junginger, H.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/202130703; de Moor, H.H.C.; Schaeffer, G.J.

    2008-01-01

    Learning curves are extensively used in policy and scenario studies. Progress ratios (PRs) are derived from historical data and are used for forecasting cost development of many technologies, including photovoltaics (PV). Forecasts are highly sensitive to uncertainties in the PR. A PR usually is

  6. Historical review of radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onai, Yoshio

    1993-01-01

    The techniques of radiotherapy have been improved by development of particle accelerators, radionuclides and computers. This paper presents a historical review of the physical and technical aspects of radiotherapy in Japan. Changes in the kinds of radiation, such as X-rays, gamma rays, electrons, neutrons and protons used for external radiotherapy, and the equipment involved are described chronologically, and historical changes in the quality of radiotherapy apparatus are outlined. Patient data acquisition equipment, such as X-ray simulator and X-ray CT, beam modifying devices, patient setup devices, and devices to verify treatment fields and patient doses are reviewed historically. Radiation sources for brachytherapy and internal radiotherapy, and remotely controlled afterloading systems are reviewed chronologically. Historical changes in methods to evaluate absorbed doses, dose monitor systems and beam data acquisition systems are outlined. Changes in methods of calculating dose distributions for external X-ray and electron therapy, brachytherapy and internal radiotherapy by unsealded radionuclides are described and calculation techniques for treatment planning system are reviewed. Annual figures in the numbers of radiotherapy equipment, such as telecobalt and telecesium units, linear accelerators, betatrons, microtrons, stereotactic gamma units, conformation radiotherapy units, remotely controlled afterloading systems, and associated equipment such as X-ray simulators and treatment planning systems are provided, as are changes in the number of accelerators by maximum X-ray energy and maximum electron energy, and in the number of licensed hospitals and clinics using small sealed sources. Changes in techniques of external radiotherapy and brachytherapy are described briefly from the point of view of dose distributions. (author)

  7. Historic timber roof structures

    OpenAIRE

    Magina, Miguel Jorge

    2013-01-01

    Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil – Estruturas e Geotecnia This dissertation covers the study of historic timber roof structures in Transylvania area - Romania, the structures type, its elements and connection variety between them. Procedures to study a structure of this category are approached. It is also referred semi and non-destructive tests that can be done to better understand the present wood characteristics, and potential reparation or strengthening...

  8. Why Digitise Historical Television?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Ellis

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Digitisation of historic TV material is driven by the widespread perception that archival material should be made available to diverse users. Yet digitisation alters the material, taking away any lingering sense of presence. Digitisation and online access, however, offer startling new possibilities. The article offers three: use of material in language teaching and learning; use in dementia therapy; and applications as data in medical research. All depend on ordinary TV for their effectivity.

  9. Differential geometry and topology of curves

    CERN Document Server

    Animov, Yu

    2001-01-01

    Differential geometry is an actively developing area of modern mathematics. This volume presents a classical approach to the general topics of the geometry of curves, including the theory of curves in n-dimensional Euclidean space. The author investigates problems for special classes of curves and gives the working method used to obtain the conditions for closed polygonal curves. The proof of the Bakel-Werner theorem in conditions of boundedness for curves with periodic curvature and torsion is also presented. This volume also highlights the contributions made by great geometers. past and present, to differential geometry and the topology of curves.

  10. Kinship and the decline of fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y

    1996-01-01

    China's family planning and population control policies, together with the move toward a more market-oriented economy since the 1980s, have led to significant change in people's reproductive values and behavior and a substantial decline in fertility. Traditional kinship in China, its terminology, and the impact of fertility decline on kinship in China and Chinese society are discussed. The decline in fertility is affecting or will affect China's kinship system, the corresponding pattern of terminology, and the social structure. In the more market-oriented economy which has been developing in China, the simplification of the kinship system will help change the structure of Chinese society and weaken the traditional patriarchal culture. A more individualized, contractualized social structure and relationships will result.

  11. APFO Historical Availability of Imagery

    Data.gov (United States)

    Farm Service Agency, Department of Agriculture — The APFO Historical Availability ArcGIS Online web map provides an easy to use reference of what historical imagery is available by county from the Aerial...

  12. ACHP | Tribal Historic Preservation Officers

    Science.gov (United States)

    preservation of significant historic properties. Those functions include identifying and maintaining Working with Section 106 Federal, State, & Tribal Programs Training & Education Publications Search skip specific nav links Home arrow Historic Preservation Programs & Officers arrow THPOs

  13. USGS Historical Topographic Map Collection

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — USGS Historical Quadrangle in GeoPDF. The USGS Historical Quadrangle Scanning Project (HQSP) is scanning all scales and all editions of topographic maps published by...

  14. Flow characteristics of curved ducts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudolf P.

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Curved channels are very often present in real hydraulic systems, e.g. curved diffusers of hydraulic turbines, S-shaped bulb turbines, fittings, etc. Curvature brings change of velocity profile, generation of vortices and production of hydraulic losses. Flow simulation using CFD techniques were performed to understand these phenomena. Cases ranging from single elbow to coupled elbows in shapes of U, S and spatial right angle position with circular cross-section were modeled for Re = 60000. Spatial development of the flow was studied and consequently it was deduced that minor losses are connected with the transformation of pressure energy into kinetic energy and vice versa. This transformation is a dissipative process and is reflected in the amount of the energy irreversibly lost. Least loss coefficient is connected with flow in U-shape elbows, biggest one with flow in Sshape elbows. Finally, the extent of the flow domain influenced by presence of curvature was examined. This isimportant for proper placement of mano- and flowmeters during experimental tests. Simulations were verified with experimental results presented in literature.

  15. Improved capacitive melting curve measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sebedash, Alexander; Tuoriniemi, Juha; Pentti, Elias; Salmela, Anssi

    2009-01-01

    Sensitivity of the capacitive method for determining the melting pressure of helium can be enhanced by loading the empty side of the capacitor with helium at a pressure nearly equal to that desired to be measured and by using a relatively thin and flexible membrane in between. This way one can achieve a nanobar resolution at the level of 30 bar, which is two orders of magnitude better than that of the best gauges with vacuum reference. This extends the applicability of melting curve thermometry to lower temperatures and would allow detecting tiny anomalies in the melting pressure, which must be associated with any phenomena contributing to the entropy of the liquid or solid phases. We demonstrated this principle in measurements of the crystallization pressure of isotopic helium mixtures at millikelvin temperatures by using partly solid pure 4 He as the reference substance providing the best possible universal reference pressure. The achieved sensitivity was good enough for melting curve thermometry on mixtures down to 100 μK. Similar system can be used on pure isotopes by virtue of a blocked capillary giving a stable reference condition with liquid slightly below the melting pressure in the reference volume. This was tested with pure 4 He at temperatures 0.08-0.3 K. To avoid spurious heating effects, one must carefully choose and arrange any dielectric materials close to the active capacitor. We observed some 100 pW loading at moderate excitation voltages.

  16. Classical optics and curved spaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailyn, M.; Ragusa, S.

    1976-01-01

    In the eikonal approximation of classical optics, the unit polarization 3-vector of light satisfies an equation that depends only on the index, n, of refraction. It is known that if the original 3-space line element is d sigma 2 , then this polarization direction propagates parallely in the fictitious space n 2 d sigma 2 . Since the equation depends only on n, it is possible to invent a fictitious curved 4-space in which the light performs a null geodesic, and the polarization 3-vector behaves as the 'shadow' of a parallely propagated 4-vector. The inverse, namely, the reduction of Maxwell's equation, on a curve 'dielectric free) space, to a classical space with dielectric constant n=(-g 00 ) -1 / 2 is well known, but in the latter the dielectric constant epsilon and permeability μ must also equal (-g 00 ) -1 / 2 . The rotation of polarization as light bends around the sun by utilizing the reduction to the classical space, is calculated. This (non-) rotation may then be interpreted as parallel transport in the 3-space n 2 d sigma 2 [pt

  17. Idaho Power's reverses decline with employee increase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    Following several years of decline, the number of full-time Idaho Power employees increased to 1,528 at the end of 1989, up from 1,500 in 1988. The increase reversed a steady decline that began in 1984 when the company had a peak employment of 1,725. Last year's increase in the work force in part reflects recent additions in customers served and the electric demands of an expanding economy in the service area, as well as new regulatory requirements, the company said

  18. Historically low mitochondrial DNA diversity in koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus)

    OpenAIRE

    Tsangaras, Kyriakos; Ávila-Arcos, María C; Ishida, Yasuko; Helgen, Kristofer M; Roca, Alfred L; Greenwood, Alex D

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) is an arboreal marsupial that was historically widespread across eastern Australia until the end of the 19th century when it suffered a steep population decline. Hunting for the fur trade, habitat conversion, and disease contributed to a precipitous reduction in koala population size during the late 1800s and early 1900s. To examine the effects of these reductions in population size on koala genetic diversity, we sequenced part of the hyp...

  19. Intermediate Genre Study. Historical Fiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novelli, Joan; Lasky, Kathryn

    1996-01-01

    Students can learn to appreciate history as readers and writers of historical fiction. This section presents an introduction to historical fiction, a display idea, a mystery history game, discussion of character-building, charts for students to fill in with information on historical characters, suggestions for customizing writing centers and for…

  20. Atlas of stress-strain curves

    CERN Document Server

    2002-01-01

    The Atlas of Stress-Strain Curves, Second Edition is substantially bigger in page dimensions, number of pages, and total number of curves than the previous edition. It contains over 1,400 curves, almost three times as many as in the 1987 edition. The curves are normalized in appearance to aid making comparisons among materials. All diagrams include metric (SI) units, and many also include U.S. customary units. All curves are captioned in a consistent format with valuable information including (as available) standard designation, the primary source of the curve, mechanical properties (including hardening exponent and strength coefficient), condition of sample, strain rate, test temperature, and alloy composition. Curve types include monotonic and cyclic stress-strain, isochronous stress-strain, and tangent modulus. Curves are logically arranged and indexed for fast retrieval of information. The book also includes an introduction that provides background information on methods of stress-strain determination, on...

  1. Transition curves for highway geometric design

    CERN Document Server

    Kobryń, Andrzej

    2017-01-01

    This book provides concise descriptions of the various solutions of transition curves, which can be used in geometric design of roads and highways. It presents mathematical methods and curvature functions for defining transition curves. .

  2. Comparison and evaluation of mathematical lactation curve ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2492989

    A mathematical model of the lactation curve provides summary information about culling and milking strategies ..... Table 2 Statistics of the edited data for first lactation Holstein cows ..... Application of different models to the lactation curves of.

  3. Learning from the Sun. Analysis of the use of experience curves for energy policy purposes. The case of photovoltaic power. Final report of the Photex project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaeffer, G.J.; Seebregts, A.J.; Beurskens, L.W.M.; De Moor, H.H.C.; Alsema, E.; Sark, W.; Durstewicz, M.; Perrin, M.; Boulanger, P.; Laukamp, H.; Zuccaro, C.

    2004-08-01

    Since the 1990s energy policy scientists have started to explore the possibilities of using the experience curve approach for energy policy making. The concept of the experience curve is simple, at least in principle. It states that, for every doubling of cumulative produced capacity of a product or technology, the cost for making it declines with a fixed percentage (learning rate). Historical statistical analysis can be used to define this percentage. Extrapolating the trend thus found, into the future will then give relevant information about future cost developments and will also give information how much 'learning money' will be needed to get to the break-even point. The Photex project used the development of solar PV as a case to further explore this approach, and also to deduce lessons for PV policy. Other aims were to look at learning rates of the different components of PV-systems and to combine the experience curve analyses with bottom-up engineering studies. The main conclusion with regard to the use of experience curves for energy policy making is that this is an interesting approach, but that such an analysis should be done with much care. For the historical analysis the availability of reliable and firm data is essential. As cost data often are not available, price data could be used as a proxy, as long as sufficient long time ranges are used. Also, the analyst should take care he considers the right learning system boundaries. Furthermore the number of years to be included in the statistical analysis should at least be 10 years and this period sample should not over-represent stable price periods or periods of steep price decline. If possible, data uncertainties should be taken into account as well. An interesting finding was that, at least in the case of PV, the learning rate is not a constant, but can vary over time. In the case of PV it improved from 20% to 23%. Extrapolations into the future should take uncertainties into account and always be

  4. Handgrip strength predicts functional decline at discharge in hospitalized male elderly: a hospital cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen García-Peña

    Full Text Available Functional decline after hospitalization is a common adverse outcome in elderly. An easy to use, reproducible and accurate tool to identify those at risk would aid focusing interventions in those at higher risk. Handgrip strength has been shown to predict adverse outcomes in other settings. The aim of this study was to determine if handgrip strength measured upon admission to an acute care facility would predict functional decline (either incident or worsening of preexisting at discharge among older Mexican, stratified by gender. In addition, cutoff points as a function of specificity would be determined. A cohort study was conducted in two hospitals in Mexico City. The primary endpoint was functional decline on discharge, defined as a 30-point reduction in the Barthel Index score from that of the baseline score. Handgrip strength along with other variables was measured at initial assessment, including: instrumental activities of daily living, cognition, depressive symptoms, delirium, hospitalization length and quality of life. All analyses were stratified by gender. Logistic regression to test independent association between handgrip strength and functional decline was performed, along with estimation of handgrip strength test values (specificity, sensitivity, area under the curve, etc.. A total of 223 patients admitted to an acute care facility between 2007 and 2009 were recruited. A total of 55 patients (24.7% had functional decline, 23.46% in male and 25.6% in women. Multivariate analysis showed that only males with low handgrip strength had an increased risk of functional decline at discharge (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79-0.98, p = 0.01, with a specificity of 91.3% and a cutoff point of 20.65 kg for handgrip strength. Females had not a significant association between handgrip strength and functional decline. Measurement of handgrip strength on admission to acute care facilities may identify male elderly patients at risk of having functional decline

  5. The natural history of cardiac and pulmonary function decline in patients with duchenne muscular dystrophy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberto, Rolando; Fritz, Anto; Hagar, Yolanda; Boice, Braden; Skalsky, Andrew; Hwang, Hosun; Beckett, Laurel; McDonald, Craig; Gupta, Munish

    2011-07-01

    Retrospective review of scoliosis progression, pulmonary and cardiac function in a series of patients with Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD). To determine whether operative treatment of scoliosis decreases the rate of pulmonary function loss in patients with DMD. It is generally accepted that surgical intervention should be undertaken in DMD scoliosis once curve sizes reach 35° to allow intervention before critical respiratory decline has occurred. There are conflicting reports, however, regarding the effect of scoliosis stabilization on the rate of pulmonary function decline when compared to nonoperative cohorts. We reviewed spinal radiographs, echocardiograms, and spirometry, hospital, and operative records of all patients seen at our tertiary referral center from July 1, 1992 to June 1, 2007. Data were recorded to Microsoft Excel (Microsoft, Redmond, WA) and analyzed with SAS (SAS Institute, Cary, NC) and R statistical processing software (www.r-project.org). The percent predicted forced vital capacity (PPFVC) decreased 5% per year before operation. The mean PPFVC was 54% (SD = 21%) before operation with a mean postoperative PPFVC of 43% (SD = 14%). Surgical treatment was associated with a 12% decline in PPFVC independent of other treatment variables. PPFVC after operation declined at a rate of 1% per year and while this rate was lower, it was not significantly different than the rate of decline present before operation (P = 0.18). Cardiac function as measured by left ventricular fractional shortening declined at a rate of 1% per year with most individuals exhibiting a left ventricular fractional shortening rate of more than 30 before operation. Operative treatment of scoliosis in DMD using the Luque Galveston method was associated with a reduction of forced vital capacity related to operation. The rate of pulmonary function decline after operation was not significantly reduced when compared with the rate of preoperative forced vital capacity decline.

  6. Handgrip Strength Predicts Functional Decline at Discharge in Hospitalized Male Elderly: A Hospital Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Peña, Carmen; García-Fabela, Luis C.; Gutiérrez-Robledo, Luis M.; García-González, Jose J.; Arango-Lopera, Victoria E.; Pérez-Zepeda, Mario U.

    2013-01-01

    Functional decline after hospitalization is a common adverse outcome in elderly. An easy to use, reproducible and accurate tool to identify those at risk would aid focusing interventions in those at higher risk. Handgrip strength has been shown to predict adverse outcomes in other settings. The aim of this study was to determine if handgrip strength measured upon admission to an acute care facility would predict functional decline (either incident or worsening of preexisting) at discharge among older Mexican, stratified by gender. In addition, cutoff points as a function of specificity would be determined. A cohort study was conducted in two hospitals in Mexico City. The primary endpoint was functional decline on discharge, defined as a 30-point reduction in the Barthel Index score from that of the baseline score. Handgrip strength along with other variables was measured at initial assessment, including: instrumental activities of daily living, cognition, depressive symptoms, delirium, hospitalization length and quality of life. All analyses were stratified by gender. Logistic regression to test independent association between handgrip strength and functional decline was performed, along with estimation of handgrip strength test values (specificity, sensitivity, area under the curve, etc.). A total of 223 patients admitted to an acute care facility between 2007 and 2009 were recruited. A total of 55 patients (24.7%) had functional decline, 23.46% in male and 25.6% in women. Multivariate analysis showed that only males with low handgrip strength had an increased risk of functional decline at discharge (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79–0.98, p = 0.01), with a specificity of 91.3% and a cutoff point of 20.65 kg for handgrip strength. Females had not a significant association between handgrip strength and functional decline. Measurement of handgrip strength on admission to acute care facilities may identify male elderly patients at risk of having functional decline, and

  7. UNSUPERVISED TRANSIENT LIGHT CURVE ANALYSIS VIA HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN INFERENCE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanders, N. E.; Soderberg, A. M. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Betancourt, M., E-mail: nsanders@cfa.harvard.edu [Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL (United Kingdom)

    2015-02-10

    Historically, light curve studies of supernovae (SNe) and other transient classes have focused on individual objects with copious and high signal-to-noise observations. In the nascent era of wide field transient searches, objects with detailed observations are decreasing as a fraction of the overall known SN population, and this strategy sacrifices the majority of the information contained in the data about the underlying population of transients. A population level modeling approach, simultaneously fitting all available observations of objects in a transient sub-class of interest, fully mines the data to infer the properties of the population and avoids certain systematic biases. We present a novel hierarchical Bayesian statistical model for population level modeling of transient light curves, and discuss its implementation using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. As a test case, we apply this model to the Type IIP SN sample from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey, consisting of 18,837 photometric observations of 76 SNe, corresponding to a joint posterior distribution with 9176 parameters under our model. Our hierarchical model fits provide improved constraints on light curve parameters relevant to the physical properties of their progenitor stars relative to modeling individual light curves alone. Moreover, we directly evaluate the probability for occurrence rates of unseen light curve characteristics from the model hyperparameters, addressing observational biases in survey methodology. We view this modeling framework as an unsupervised machine learning technique with the ability to maximize scientific returns from data to be collected by future wide field transient searches like LSST.

  8. UNSUPERVISED TRANSIENT LIGHT CURVE ANALYSIS VIA HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN INFERENCE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanders, N. E.; Soderberg, A. M.; Betancourt, M.

    2015-01-01

    Historically, light curve studies of supernovae (SNe) and other transient classes have focused on individual objects with copious and high signal-to-noise observations. In the nascent era of wide field transient searches, objects with detailed observations are decreasing as a fraction of the overall known SN population, and this strategy sacrifices the majority of the information contained in the data about the underlying population of transients. A population level modeling approach, simultaneously fitting all available observations of objects in a transient sub-class of interest, fully mines the data to infer the properties of the population and avoids certain systematic biases. We present a novel hierarchical Bayesian statistical model for population level modeling of transient light curves, and discuss its implementation using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. As a test case, we apply this model to the Type IIP SN sample from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey, consisting of 18,837 photometric observations of 76 SNe, corresponding to a joint posterior distribution with 9176 parameters under our model. Our hierarchical model fits provide improved constraints on light curve parameters relevant to the physical properties of their progenitor stars relative to modeling individual light curves alone. Moreover, we directly evaluate the probability for occurrence rates of unseen light curve characteristics from the model hyperparameters, addressing observational biases in survey methodology. We view this modeling framework as an unsupervised machine learning technique with the ability to maximize scientific returns from data to be collected by future wide field transient searches like LSST

  9. Why Employee Motivation Has Declined in America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Philip C.

    1982-01-01

    Examines possible reasons for declining employee motivation: greater instability and diversity of values; more guaranteed rewards; inability of rewards to satisfy emerging needs; disappearing work ethic; reduced costs of failure; rising income and progressive taxation; more group production and problem solving; decreased employee loyalty; less…

  10. Understanding spatial differentiation in urban decline levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekveld, J.J.

    2014-01-01

    The economic and demographic changes currently manifest in many Western cities—referred to as urban decline or urban shrinkage—are receiving increased attention in public and academic debates. Although the general processes driving these changes have been identified, such processes cannot explain

  11. Predicting flux decline of reverse osmosis membranes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schippers, J.C.; Hanemaayer, J.H.; Smolders, C.A.; Kostense, A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model predicting flux decline of reverse osmosis membranes due to colloidal fouling has been verified. This mathema- tical model is based on the theory of cake or gel filtration and the Modified Fouling Index (MFI). Research was conducted using artificial colloidal solutions and a

  12. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  13. Disease management strategy for macadamia quick decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trees infected with Macadamia Quick Decline (MQD) exhibit excessive sap bleeding from the trunk, frass from ambrosia beetle feeding, orange fruiting bodies of the fungus Nectria rugulosa and yellowing and browning of the leaves within the tree canopy. MQD threatens commercial and residential product...

  14. Exploring the Global Decline of Music Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aróstegui, José Luis

    2016-01-01

    This article seeks to explain the disjuncture between the decline of music education in schools and the importance music has in popular youth culture and in creativity within the new knowledge economy. The data discussed in this article have been derived from analyses of major documents on curriculum reform as well as e-mail responses from music…

  15. Declining national park visitation: An economic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas H. Stevens; Thomas A. More; Marla. Markowski-Lindsay

    2014-01-01

    Visitation to the major nature-based national parks has been declining. This paper specifies an econometric model that estimates the relative impact of consumer incomes, travel costs, entry fees and other factors on per capita attendance from 1993 to 2010. Results suggest that entrance fees have had a statistically significant but small impact on per capita attendance...

  16. Conflict Management in Declining School Districts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, William Lowe; Wheaton, Dennis R.

    1983-01-01

    Professional literature about managing conflicts associated with declining enrollments indicates the existing tension in this area. A research study shows that, while upper-middle class districts may succeed using a rational approach to decision making, lower class districts, for various reasons, may not. Special problems of urban districts are…

  17. Why Do Patients with COPD Decline Rehabilitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mathar, Helle; Fastholm, Pernille; Hansen, Ida Rode

    2016-01-01

    AIM: This paper aimed to suggest possible answers to the question: Why do patients with COPD decline pulmonary rehabilitation (PR)? METHOD: The study is a metasynthesis inspired by Noblit of the existing qualitative research on the area. The data were collected during 2014. Six studies were found...

  18. The Decline of Literature: A Public Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albalawi, Mohammed

    2015-01-01

    After centuries of dominance, literature has not been in a robust health for the last few decades. Several scholars have addressed the decline of literature in a number of books and articles attributing it to institutional and economic reasons. However, a major factor has not been taken into account. It is the larger audience who receives and…

  19. Gelfond–Bézier curves

    KAUST Repository

    Ait-Haddou, Rachid; Sakane, Yusuke; Nomura, Taishin

    2013-01-01

    We show that the generalized Bernstein bases in Müntz spaces defined by Hirschman and Widder (1949) and extended by Gelfond (1950) can be obtained as pointwise limits of the Chebyshev–Bernstein bases in Müntz spaces with respect to an interval [a,1][a,1] as the positive real number a converges to zero. Such a realization allows for concepts of curve design such as de Casteljau algorithm, blossom, dimension elevation to be transferred from the general theory of Chebyshev blossoms in Müntz spaces to these generalized Bernstein bases that we termed here as Gelfond–Bernstein bases. The advantage of working with Gelfond–Bernstein bases lies in the simplicity of the obtained concepts and algorithms as compared to their Chebyshev–Bernstein bases counterparts.

  20. Bubble Collision in Curved Spacetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Dong-il; Lee, Bum-Hoon; Lee, Wonwoo; Yeom, Dong-han

    2014-01-01

    We study vacuum bubble collisions in curved spacetime, in which vacuum bubbles were nucleated in the initial metastable vacuum state by quantum tunneling. The bubbles materialize randomly at different times and then start to grow. It is known that the percolation by true vacuum bubbles is not possible due to the exponential expansion of the space among the bubbles. In this paper, we consider two bubbles of the same size with a preferred axis and assume that two bubbles form very near each other to collide. The two bubbles have the same field value. When the bubbles collide, the collided region oscillates back-and-forth and then the collided region eventually decays and disappears. We discuss radiation and gravitational wave resulting from the collision of two bubbles

  1. Bacterial streamers in curved microchannels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusconi, Roberto; Lecuyer, Sigolene; Guglielmini, Laura; Stone, Howard

    2009-11-01

    Biofilms, generally identified as microbial communities embedded in a self-produced matrix of extracellular polymeric substances, are involved in a wide variety of health-related problems ranging from implant-associated infections to disease transmissions and dental plaque. The usual picture of these bacterial films is that they grow and develop on surfaces. However, suspended biofilm structures, or streamers, have been found in natural environments (e.g., rivers, acid mines, hydrothermal hot springs) and are always suggested to stem from a turbulent flow. We report the formation of bacterial streamers in curved microfluidic channels. By using confocal laser microscopy we are able to directly image and characterize the spatial and temporal evolution of these filamentous structures. Such streamers, which always connect the inner corners of opposite sides of the channel, are always located in the middle plane. Numerical simulations of the flow provide evidences for an underlying hydrodynamic mechanism behind the formation of the streamers.

  2. Gelfond–Bézier curves

    KAUST Repository

    Ait-Haddou, Rachid

    2013-02-01

    We show that the generalized Bernstein bases in Müntz spaces defined by Hirschman and Widder (1949) and extended by Gelfond (1950) can be obtained as pointwise limits of the Chebyshev–Bernstein bases in Müntz spaces with respect to an interval [a,1][a,1] as the positive real number a converges to zero. Such a realization allows for concepts of curve design such as de Casteljau algorithm, blossom, dimension elevation to be transferred from the general theory of Chebyshev blossoms in Müntz spaces to these generalized Bernstein bases that we termed here as Gelfond–Bernstein bases. The advantage of working with Gelfond–Bernstein bases lies in the simplicity of the obtained concepts and algorithms as compared to their Chebyshev–Bernstein bases counterparts.

  3. DETERMINISTIC COMPONENTS IN THE LIGHT CURVE AMPLITUDE OF Y OPH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pop, Alexandru; Turcu, Vlad; Vamos, Calin

    2010-01-01

    About two decades after the discovery of the amplitude decline of the light curve of the classical Cepheid Y Oph, its study is resumed using an increased amount of homogenized data and an extended time base. In our approach, the investigation of different time series concerning the light curve amplitude of Y Oph is not only the reason for the present study, but also a stimulus for developing a coherent methodology for studying long- and short-term variability phenomena in variable stars, taking into account the details of concrete observing conditions: amount of data, data sampling, time base, and individual errors of observational data. The statistical significance of this decreasing trend was estimated by assuming its linearity. We approached the decision-making process by formulating adequate null and alternative hypotheses, and testing the value of the regression line slope for different data sets via Monte Carlo simulations. A variability analysis, through various methods, of the original data and of the residuals obtained after removing the linear trend was performed. We also proposed a new statistical test, based on amplitude spectrum analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, intended to evaluate how detectible is a given (linear) trend in well-defined observing conditions: the trend detection probability. The main conclusion of our study on Y Oph is that, even if the false alarm probability is low enough to consider the decreasing trend to be statistically significant, the available data do not allow us to obtain a reasonably powerful test. We are able to confirm the light curve amplitude decline, and the order of magnitude of its slope with a better statistical substantiation. According to the obtained values of the trend detection probability, it seems that the trend we are dealing with is marked by a low detectibility. Our attempt to find signs of possible variability phenomena at shorter timescales ended by emphasizing the relative constancy of our data

  4. Sibling curves of quadratic polynomials | Wiggins | Quaestiones ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sibling curves were demonstrated in [1, 2] as a novel way to visualize the zeroes of real valued functions. In [3] it was shown that a polynomial of degree n has n sibling curves. This paper focuses on the algebraic and geometric properites of the sibling curves of real and complex quadratic polynomials. Key words: Quadratic ...

  5. GLOBAL AND STRICT CURVE FITTING METHOD

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nakajima, Y.; Mori, S.

    2004-01-01

    To find a global and smooth curve fitting, cubic B­Spline method and gathering­ line methods are investigated. When segmenting and recognizing a contour curve of character shape, some global method is required. If we want to connect contour curves around a singular point like crossing points,

  6. Trigonometric Characterization of Some Plane Curves

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    (Figure 1). A relation between tan θ and tanψ gives the trigonometric equation of the family of curves. In this article, trigonometric equations of some known plane curves are deduced and it is shown that these equations reveal some geometric characteristics of the families of the curves under consideration. In Section 2,.

  7. M-curves and symmetric products

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Indranil Biswas

    2017-08-03

    Aug 3, 2017 ... is bounded above by g + 1, where g is the genus of X [11]. Curves which have exactly the maximum number (i.e., genus +1) of components of the real part are called M-curves. Classifying real algebraic curves up to homeomorphism is straightforward, however, classifying even planar non-singular real ...

  8. Holomorphic curves in exploded manifolds: Kuranishi structure

    OpenAIRE

    Parker, Brett

    2013-01-01

    This paper constructs a Kuranishi structure for the moduli stack of holomorphic curves in exploded manifolds. To avoid some technicalities of abstract Kuranishi structures, we embed our Kuranishi structure inside a moduli stack of curves. The construction also works for the moduli stack of holomorphic curves in any compact symplectic manifold.

  9. Automated Blazar Light Curves Using Machine Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Spencer James [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-07-27

    This presentation describes a problem and methodology pertaining to automated blazar light curves. Namely, optical variability patterns for blazars require the construction of light curves and in order to generate the light curves, data must be filtered before processing to ensure quality.

  10. Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsui, A O; Bogue, D J

    1978-10-01

    This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."

  11. Einstein: A Historical Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kormos-Buchwald, Diana

    2015-04-01

    In late 1915, Albert Einstein (1879-1955) completed as series of papers on a generalized theory of gravitation that were to constitute a major conceptual change in the history of modern physics and the crowning achievement of his scientific career. But this accomplishment came after a decade of intense intellectual struggle and was received with muted enthusiasm. Einstein's previously unpublished writings and massive correspondence, edited by the Einstein Papers Project, provide vivid insights into the historical, personal, and scientific context of the formulation, completion, and reception of GR during the first decades of the 20th century.

  12. [Historical roles of salt].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritz, E; Ritz, C

    2004-12-17

    Recently increasing evidence has been provided pointing to a close relation of salt consumption to hypertension as well as to target organ damage. It is interesting to note that the discussion concerning salt is unusually emotional. This may be explained, at least in part, by the fact that since ancient times salt had deep symbolic significance, as exemplified, mostly subconsciously, by many customs and expressions still in current use. In the past salt was essential to preserve food. The past importance of salt as a commodity can well be compared with that of oil today. These and further historical aspects of the role of salt are briefly dealt with in this article.

  13. Retrieving Historical Electrorefining Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wheeler, Meagan Daniella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-08-18

    Pyrochemical Operations began at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) during 1962 (1). Electrorefining (ER) has been implemented as a routine process since the 1980’s. The process data that went through the ER operation was recorded but had never been logged in an online database. Without a database new staff members are hindered in their work by the lack of information. To combat the issue a database in Access was created to collect the historical data. The years from 2000 onward were entered and queries were created to analyze trends. These trends will aid engineering and operations staff to reach optimal performance for the startup of the new lines.

  14. Expiration of Historical Databases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toman, David

    2001-01-01

    We present a technique for automatic expiration of data in a historical data warehouse that preserves answers to a known and fixed set of first-order queries. In addition, we show that for queries with output size bounded by a function of the active data domain size (the number of values that have...... ever appeared in the warehouse), the size of the portion of the data warehouse history needed to answer the queries is also bounded by a function of the active data do-main size and therefore does not depend on the age of the warehouse (the length of the history)....

  15. Method of construction spatial transition curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Didanov

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The movement of rail transport (speed rolling stock, traffic safety, etc. is largely dependent on the quality of the track. In this case, a special role is the transition curve, which ensures smooth insertion of the transition from linear to circular section of road. The article deals with modeling of spatial transition curve based on the parabolic distribution of the curvature and torsion. This is a continuation of research conducted by the authors regarding the spatial modeling of curved contours. Methodology. Construction of the spatial transition curve is numerical methods for solving nonlinear integral equations, where the initial data are taken coordinate the starting and ending points of the curve of the future, and the inclination of the tangent and the deviation of the curve from the tangent plane at these points. System solutions for the numerical method are the partial derivatives of the equations of the unknown parameters of the law of change of torsion and length of the transition curve. Findings. The parametric equations of the spatial transition curve are calculated by finding the unknown coefficients of the parabolic distribution of the curvature and torsion, as well as the spatial length of the transition curve. Originality. A method for constructing the spatial transition curve is devised, and based on this software geometric modeling spatial transition curves of railway track with specified deviations of the curve from the tangent plane. Practical value. The resulting curve can be applied in any sector of the economy, where it is necessary to ensure a smooth transition from linear to circular section of the curved space bypass. An example is the transition curve in the construction of the railway line, road, pipe, profile, flat section of the working blades of the turbine and compressor, the ship, plane, car, etc.

  16. Historically low mitochondrial DNA diversity in koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsangaras Kyriakos

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus is an arboreal marsupial that was historically widespread across eastern Australia until the end of the 19th century when it suffered a steep population decline. Hunting for the fur trade, habitat conversion, and disease contributed to a precipitous reduction in koala population size during the late 1800s and early 1900s. To examine the effects of these reductions in population size on koala genetic diversity, we sequenced part of the hypervariable region of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA in koala museum specimens collected in the 19th and 20th centuries, hypothesizing that the historical samples would exhibit greater genetic diversity. Results The mtDNA haplotypes present in historical museum samples were identical to haplotypes found in modern koala populations, and no novel haplotypes were detected. Rarefaction analyses suggested that the mtDNA genetic diversity present in the museum samples was similar to that of modern koalas. Conclusions Low mtDNA diversity may have been present in koala populations prior to recent population declines. When considering management strategies, low genetic diversity of the mtDNA hypervariable region may not indicate recent inbreeding or founder events but may reflect an older historical pattern for koalas.

  17. Historically low mitochondrial DNA diversity in koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsangaras, Kyriakos; Ávila-Arcos, María C; Ishida, Yasuko; Helgen, Kristofer M; Roca, Alfred L; Greenwood, Alex D

    2012-10-24

    The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) is an arboreal marsupial that was historically widespread across eastern Australia until the end of the 19th century when it suffered a steep population decline. Hunting for the fur trade, habitat conversion, and disease contributed to a precipitous reduction in koala population size during the late 1800s and early 1900s. To examine the effects of these reductions in population size on koala genetic diversity, we sequenced part of the hypervariable region of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) in koala museum specimens collected in the 19th and 20th centuries, hypothesizing that the historical samples would exhibit greater genetic diversity. The mtDNA haplotypes present in historical museum samples were identical to haplotypes found in modern koala populations, and no novel haplotypes were detected. Rarefaction analyses suggested that the mtDNA genetic diversity present in the museum samples was similar to that of modern koalas. Low mtDNA diversity may have been present in koala populations prior to recent population declines. When considering management strategies, low genetic diversity of the mtDNA hypervariable region may not indicate recent inbreeding or founder events but may reflect an older historical pattern for koalas.

  18. Power forward curves: a managerial perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagarajan, Shankar

    1999-01-01

    This chapter concentrates on managerial application of power forward curves, and examines the determinants of electricity prices such as transmission constraints, its inability to be stored in a conventional way, its seasonality and weather dependence, the generation stack, and the swing risk. The electricity forward curve, classical arbitrage, constructing a forward curve, volatilities, and electricity forward curve models such as the jump-diffusion model, the mean-reverting heteroscedastic volatility model, and an econometric model of forward prices are examined. A managerial perspective of the applications of the forward curve is presented covering plant valuation, capital budgeting, performance measurement, product pricing and structuring, asset optimisation, valuation of transmission options, and risk management

  19. Retrograde curves of solidus and solubility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasil'ev, M.V.

    1979-01-01

    The investigation was concerned with the constitutional diagrams of the eutectic type with ''retrograde solidus'' and ''retrograde solubility curve'' which must be considered as diagrams with degenerate monotectic transformation. The solidus and the solubility curves form a retrograde curve with a common retrograde point representing the solubility maximum. The two branches of the Aetrograde curve can be described with the aid of two similar equations. Presented are corresponding equations for the Cd-Zn system and shown is the possibility of predicting the run of the solubility curve

  20. Rethinking historical trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirmayer, Laurence J; Gone, Joseph P; Moses, Joshua

    2014-06-01

    Recent years have seen the rise of historical trauma as a construct to describe the impact of colonization, cultural suppression, and historical oppression of Indigenous peoples in North America (e.g., Native Americans in the United States, Aboriginal peoples in Canada). The discourses of psychiatry and psychology contribute to the conflation of disparate forms of violence by emphasizing presumptively universal aspects of trauma response. Many proponents of this construct have made explicit analogies to the Holocaust as a way to understand the transgenerational effects of genocide. However, the social, cultural, and psychological contexts of the Holocaust and of post-colonial Indigenous "survivance" differ in many striking ways. Indeed, the comparison suggests that the persistent suffering of Indigenous peoples in the Americas reflects not so much past trauma as ongoing structural violence. The comparative study of genocide and other forms of massive, organized violence can do much to illuminate both common mechanisms and distinctive features, and trace the looping effects from political processes to individual experience and back again. The ethics and pragmatics of individual and collective healing, restitution, resilience, and recovery can be understood in terms of the self-vindicating loops between politics, structural violence, public discourse, and embodied experience. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  1. Unmet need and fertility decline: a comparative perspective on prospects in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casterline, John B; El-Zeini, Laila O

    2014-06-01

    This study assesses how changes in unmet need for family planning have contributed to contemporary fertility declines, and the implications of this historical record for further fertility decline, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. We examine joint trends at the national level in fertility, unintended fertility, and unmet need. We bring unintended fertility into the analysis because the underlying rationale for reducing unmet need is to avert unintended pregnancies and births. The association over time between unmet need and fertility is investigated using survey data from 45 countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean from the mid-1970s to the present. The empirical analysis finds that reduction in unmet need, especially unmet need for limiting, is strongly associated with fertility decline in Latin America and the Caribbean and in Asia and North Africa. Fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa is weakly associated with trends in unmet need (and satisfaction of demand). We propose that the stark regional difference is due to measurement problems and to the fundamentally different character of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, itself reflective of basic differences in pretransition reproductive regimes. © 2013 The Population Council, Inc.

  2. Delta smelt: Life history and decline of a once abundant species in the San Francisco Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyle, Peter B.; Brown, Larry R.; Durand, John R; Hobbs, James A.

    2016-01-01

    This paper reviews what has been learned about Delta Smelt and its status since the publication of The State of Bay-Delta Science, 2008 (Healey et al. 2008). The Delta Smelt is endemic to the upper San Francisco Estuary. Much of its historic habitat is no longer available and remaining habitat is increasingly unable to sustain the population. As a listed species living in the central node of California’s water supply system, Delta Smelt has been the focus of a large research effort to understand causes of decline and identify ways to recover the species. Since 2008, a remarkable record of innovative research on Delta Smelt has been achieved, which is summarized here. Unfortunately, research has not prevented the smelt’s continued decline, which is the result of multiple, interacting factors. A major driver of decline is change to the Delta ecosystem from water exports, resulting in reduced outflows and high levels of entrainment in the large pumps of the South Delta. Invasions of alien species, encouraged by environmental change, have also played a contributing role in the decline. Severe drought effects have pushed Delta Smelt to record low levels in 2014–2015. The rapid decline of the species and failure of recovery efforts demonstrate an inability to manage the Delta for the “co-equal goals” of maintaining a healthy ecosystem and providing a reliable water supply for Californians. Diverse and substantial management actions are needed to preserve Delta Smelt.

  3. Analyzing price and efficiency dynamics of large appliances with the experience curve approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiss, Martin; Patel, Martin K.; Junginger, Martin; Blok, Kornelis

    2010-01-01

    Large appliances are major power consumers in households of industrialized countries. Although their energy efficiency has been increasing substantially in past decades, still additional energy efficiency potentials exist. Energy policy that aims at realizing these potentials faces, however, growing concerns about possible adverse effects on commodity prices. Here, we address these concerns by applying the experience curve approach to analyze long-term price and energy efficiency trends of three wet appliances (washing machines, laundry dryers, and dishwashers) and two cold appliances (refrigerators and freezers). We identify a robust long-term decline in both specific price and specific energy consumption of large appliances. Specific prices of wet appliances decline at learning rates (LR) of 29±8% and thereby much faster than those of cold appliances (LR of 9±4%). Our results demonstrate that technological learning leads to substantial price decline, thus indicating that the introduction of novel and initially expensive energy efficiency technologies does not necessarily imply adverse price effects in the long term. By extending the conventional experience curve approach, we find a steady decline in the specific energy consumption of wet appliances (LR of 20-35%) and cold appliances (LR of 13-17%). Our analysis suggests that energy policy might be able to bend down energy experience curves. (author)

  4. The writhe of open and closed curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berger, Mitchell A; Prior, Chris

    2006-01-01

    Twist and writhe measure basic geometric properties of a ribbon or tube. While these measures have applications in molecular biology, materials science, fluid mechanics and astrophysics, they are under-utilized because they are often considered difficult to compute. In addition, many applications involve curves with endpoints (open curves); but for these curves the definition of writhe can be ambiguous. This paper provides simple expressions for the writhe of closed curves, and provides a new definition of writhe for open curves. The open curve definition is especially appropriate when the curve is anchored at endpoints on a plane or stretches between two parallel planes. This definition can be especially useful for magnetic flux tubes in the solar atmosphere, and for isotropic rods with ends fixed to a plane

  5. Historical Slovenian Language Resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomaž Erjavec

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available EXTENDED ABSTRACT:The paper presents three language resources enabling better full-text access to digitised printed historical Slovenian texts: a hand-annotated corpus, a hand-annotated lexicon of historical words and a collection of transcribed texts. The aim of the resources is twofold: on one hand they support empirical linguistic research (corpus, collection and represent a reference tool for the research of historical Slovenian (lexicon while on the other hand they may serve as training data for the development of Human Language Technologies enabling better full-text search in digital libraries containing Slovenian written cultural heritage, modernisation of historical texts, and the development of better technological solutions for text recognition and scanning. The hand annotated corpus of historical Slovenian contains the text from 1,000 pages sampled from the years 1750 to 1900, two texts date to the end of the 16th or 17th century. The corpus contains a little more than 250,000 word tokens; each of them being annotated with hand validated linguistic features: modernised form, lemma or base form, and morhpo-syntactic description. Thus the word token »ajfram« is annotated with the normalised form »ajfrom«, by the lemma »ajfer« and morphosyntactic description »Som« or »Samostalnik« (noun, »občni« (common, »moški« (masculine and a modernised form »gorečnost« (fervour. At first the corpus was annotated automatically and then manually verified and corrected. The lexicon was created automatically from the hand-annotated corpus. It contains only attested word-forms and examples of use. The word-forms are ordered under their modern equivalents. All the modern forms of a particular word constitute a dictionary entry, defined by its lemma with conjoint information i.e. the morpho-syntactic description and the closest contemporary synonyms. Thus the entry »ajfrer/Som/gorečnost« is annotated by two modernised words »ajfra

  6. The decline of North American freshwater fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Jelks, Howard L.; Burkhead, Noel M.

    2009-01-01

    North America has a broad array of freshwater ecosystems because of the continent's complex geography and geological history. Within a multitude of habitats—that include streams, large rivers, natural lakes, springs, and wetlands—rich assemblages of fishes reside, representing diverse taxonomic groups with unique ecological requirements. They face an unprecedented conservation crisis.1 In the last few decades, the proportion of inland fishes of North America, which are considered imperiled or extinct, increased from 20 to 40%.2 Although extinctions have occurred, many species and populations are declining in range size and abundance. The fish biota of the continent as a whole remains diverse; however, we can take action to stem any further declines.

  7. The Rise and Decline of Japanese Pacifism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Cai

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The Japanese pacifist constitution has been a symbol of Japan’s commitment to peace and more importantly its renunciation of wartime militarism. There has been strong support for its continuing existence amongst the Japanese populace despite persistent attempts by the Japanese government to amend it. However, the prevalent pacifist sentiment is showing signs of fading vitality in recent times. This article purports to examine the underlying forces that contributed to the development and the decline of Japanese pacifism. A host of domestic and international factors were responsible for the growth of pacifism and its subsequent decline, but only three important domestic factors will be examined in detail: the concept of victimhood in the development of pacifism and its implication for its continuing strength, the importance of peace education and the role played by the influential Japan’s Teachers’ Union on the formation of pacifist conscience and finally, the influence of leftist organisations on the organised peace movement.

  8. The rise (and decline?) of biotechnology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinch, Michael S

    2014-11-01

    Since the 1970s, biotechnology has been a key innovator in drug development. An analysis of FDA-approved therapeutics demonstrates pharmaceutical companies outpace biotechs in terms of new approvals but biotechnology companies are now responsible for earlier-stage activities (patents, INDs or clinical development). The number of biotechnology organizations that contributed to an FDA approval began declining in the 2000s and is at a level not seen since the 1980s. Whereas early biotechnology companies had a decade from first approval until acquisition, the average acquisition of a biotechnology company now occurs months before their first FDA approval. The number of hybrid organizations that arise when pharmaceutical companies acquire biotechnology is likewise declining, raising questions about the sustainability of biotechnology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Functional and cognitive decline in hospitalized elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EUGÉNIA MENDES

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Aim – Understand if functional and cognitive decline is accentuated during hospitalization in elderly patients. Method – It was design a descriptive and correlational study. The Functional Independence Measure (FIM and the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE were used. Results – Were evaluated at admission and discharge 51 elderly (75.53 ± 7.16 years, 53% women, admitted in an internal medicine unit with a length of stay of 14.27±6.45 days. For FIM and MMSE were found statistically significant differences with lower scores from admission to discharge. Negative correlations between age and length of stay and the scores of all measures were found. Except for the Cognitive FIM at admission, all elderly residents at home fared better than the institutionalized in all measures. Conclusions – The hospitalization contributes to a greater weakness/frailty of the elderly and is considered high risk for decline in physical fitness and cognitive function.

  10. Regional decline of an iconic amphibian associated with elevation, land-use change, and invasive species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Pieter T J; McKenzie, Valerie J; Peterson, Anna C; Kerby, Jacob L; Brown, Jennifer; Blaustein, Andrew R; Jackson, Tina

    2011-06-01

    Ecological theory predicts that species with restricted geographic ranges will have the highest probability of extinction, but species with extensive distributions and high population densities can also exhibit widespread population losses. In the western United States populations of northern leopard frogs (Lithobates pipiens)-historically one of the most widespread frogs in North America-have declined dramatically in abundance and geographic distribution. To assess the status of leopard frogs in Colorado and evaluate causes of decline, we coupled statewide surveys of 196 historically occupied sites with intensive sampling of 274 wetlands stratified by land use. We used an information-theoretic approach to evaluate the contributions of factors at multiple spatial extents in explaining the contemporary distribution of leopard frogs. Our results indicate leopard frogs have declined in Colorado, but this decline was regionally variable. The lowest proportion of occupied wetlands occurred in eastern Colorado (2-28%), coincident with urban development and colonization by non-native bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus). Variables at several spatial extents explained observed leopard frog distributional patterns. In low-elevation wetlands introduced fishes, bullfrogs, and urbanization or suburbanization associated negatively with leopard frog occurrence, whereas wetland area was positively associated with occurrence. Leopard frogs were more abundant and widespread west of the Continental Divide, where urban development and bullfrog abundance were low. Although the pathogenic chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) was not selected in our best-supported models, the nearly complete extirpation of leopard frogs from montane wetlands could reflect the individual or interactive effects of Bd and climate patterns. Our results highlight the importance of considering multiple, competing hypotheses to explain species declines, particularly when implicated factors operate at

  11. Path integrals on curved manifolds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grosche, C.; Steiner, F.

    1987-01-01

    A general framework for treating path integrals on curved manifolds is presented. We also show how to perform general coordinate and space-time transformations in path integrals. The main result is that one has to subtract a quantum correction ΔV ∝ ℎ 2 from the classical Lagrangian L, i.e. the correct effective Lagrangian to be used in the path integral is L eff = L-ΔV. A general prescription for calculating the quantum correction ΔV is given. It is based on a canonical approach using Weyl-ordering and the Hamiltonian path integral defined by the midpoint prescription. The general framework is illustrated by several examples: The d-dimensional rotator, i.e. the motion on the sphere S d-1 , the path integral in d-dimensional polar coordinates, the exact treatment of the hydrogen atom in R 2 and R 3 by performing a Kustaanheimo-Stiefel transformation, the Langer transformation and the path integral for the Morse potential. (orig.)

  12. Page curves for tripartite systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Junha; Lee, Deok Sang; Nho, Dongju; Oh, Jeonghun; Park, Hyosub; Zoe, Heeseung; Yeom, Dong-han

    2017-01-01

    We investigate information flow and Page curves for tripartite systems. We prepare a tripartite system (say, A , B , and C ) of a given number of states and calculate information and entropy contents by assuming random states. Initially, every particle was in A (this means a black hole), and as time goes on, particles move to either B (this means Hawking radiation) or C (this means a broadly defined remnant, including a non-local transport of information, the last burst, an interior large volume, or a bubble universe, etc). If the final number of states of the remnant is smaller than that of Hawking radiation, then information will be stored by both the radiation and the mutual information between the radiation and the remnant, while the remnant itself does not contain information. On the other hand, if the final number of states of the remnant is greater than that of Hawking radiation, then the radiation contains negligible information, while the remnant and the mutual information between the radiation and the remnant contain information. Unless the number of states of the remnant is large enough compared to the entropy of the black hole, Hawking radiation must contain information; and we meet the menace of black hole complementarity again. Therefore, this contrasts the tension between various assumptions and candidates of the resolution of the information loss problem. (paper)

  13. Vacuum polarization in curved spacetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guy, R.W.

    1979-01-01

    A necessary step in the process of understanding the quantum theory of gravity is the calculation of the stress-energy tensor of quantized fields in curved space-times. The determination of the stress tensor, a formally divergent object, is made possible in this dissertation by utilizing the zeta-function method of regularization and renormalization. By employing this scheme's representation of the renormalized effective action functional, an expression of the stress tensor for a massless, conformally invariant scalar field, first given by DeWitt, is derived. The form of the renormalized stress tensor is first tested in various examples of flat space-times. It is shown to vanish in Minkowski space and to yield the accepted value of the energy density in the Casimir effect. Next, the stress tensor is calculated in two space-times of constant curvature, the Einstein universe and the deSitter universe, and the results are shown to agree with those given by an expression of the stress tensor that is valid in conformally flat space-times. This work culminates in the determination of the stress tensor on the horizon of a Schwarzschild black hole. This is accomplished by approximating the radial part of the eigen-functions and the metric in the vicinity of the horizon. The stress tensor at this level approximation is found to be pure trace. The approximated forms of the Schwarzschild metric describes a conformally flat space-time that possesses horizons

  14. Respiratory muscle decline in Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khirani, Sonia; Ramirez, Adriana; Aubertin, Guillaume; Boulé, Michèle; Chemouny, Chrystelle; Forin, Véronique; Fauroux, Brigitte

    2014-05-01

    Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) causes progressive respiratory muscle weakness. The aim of the study was to analyze the trend of a large number of respiratory parameters to gain further information on the course of the disease. Retrospective study. 48 boys with DMD, age range between 6 and 19 year old, who were followed in our multidisciplinary neuromuscular clinic between 2001 and 2011. Lung function, blood gases, respiratory mechanics, and muscle strength were measured during routine follow-up over a 10-year period. Only data from patients with at least two measurements were retained. The data of 28 patients were considered for analysis. Four parameters showed an important decline with age. Gastric pressure during cough (Pgas cough) was below normal in all patients with a mean decline of 5.7 ± 3.8 cmH2 O/year. Sniff nasal inspiratory pressure (SNIP) tended to increase first followed by a rapid decline (mean decrease 4.8 ± 4.9 cmH2 O; 5.2 ± 4.4% predicted/year). Absolute forced vital capacity (FVC) values peaked around the age of 13-14 years and remained mainly over 1 L but predicted values showed a mean 4.1 ± 4.4% decline/year. Diaphragmatic tension-time index (TTdi) increased above normal values after the age of 14 years with a mean increase of 0.04 ± 0.04 point/year. This study confirms the previous findings that FVC and SNIP are among the most important parameters to monitor the evolution of DMD. Expiratory muscle strength, assessed by Pgas cough, and the endurance index, TTdi, which are reported for the first time in a large cohort, appeared to be informative too, even though measured through an invasive method. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Postcolonial Bombay : decline of a cosmopolitan city?

    OpenAIRE

    McFarlane, C.

    2008-01-01

    Discussions of cosmopolitanism in Bombay often focus on the rubrics of communal tension, tolerance, and violence, and frequently report the decline of a once cosmopolitan city, especially as a result of the communal riots and bombings that occurred in the early 1990s. However, claims that the city has undergone a general social transformation since the 1990s need to be tempered by the multiple forms of cosmopolitan imaginations and practices that exist in the city. There is a wide variety ...

  16. Nuclear power : decline, prolongation or renewal?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldberg, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    In an international context still under the shock of Fukushima, and at a time when France is committed to an energy transition, the details of which still have to be decided, the future of nuclear power in the world is provoking intense and contradictory debate. What to expert: a decline, business as usual, or a renewal of the sector throughout its value chain? Some answers are to be found in an analysis by Colombus Consulting. (author)

  17. Lung function decline in bronchial asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cibella, Fabio; Cuttitta, Giuseppina; Bellia, Vincenzo; Bucchieri, Salvatore; D'Anna, Silvestre; Guerrera, Daniela; Bonsignore, Giovanni

    2002-12-01

    We evaluated the longitudinal changes in lung function and the factors associated with FEV(1) changes over time in a sample of asthmatic subjects. FEV(1) measures were recorded every 3 months over a 5-year follow-up period. To compare all subjects independently of body size, FEV(1) values were normalized for the subject's height at the third power. We evaluated the possible effect of age, baseline FEV(1), disease duration, and FEV(1) variability on the rate of change of FEV(1). We studied 142 subjects with asthma diagnosed on the basis of validated clinical and functional criteria. FEV(1) showed a linear decay with aging in each subject. For a subject 1.65 m in height, the median overall FEV(1) decay was 40.9 mL/yr. FEV(1) decay slopes were significantly influenced by age and sex, being steeper in younger male subjects. A significant interaction was found between age and baseline FEV(1): the FEV(1) decay was significantly higher among younger asthmatics with a poorer baseline functional condition. A longer disease duration was associated with a lower FEV(1) slope. FEV(1) variability was strongly associated with an increased rate of FEV(1) decline. FEV(1) decline in patients with bronchial asthma is significantly influenced by baseline FEV(1), disease duration, and FEV(1) variability. Moreover, the rate of FEV(1) decline seems to increase in younger subjects only when the baseline function is poorer.

  18. Farmer's lung is now in decline.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Arya, A

    2012-02-03

    Farmer\\'s lung incidence in Ireland was constant until 1996, even though hay making methods were revolutionised in late 1980\\'s. We undertook this study to find out the incidence of farmer\\'s lung in Ireland from 1982-2002 and its correlation with rainfall and the effect of changing farm practices. The primary cases of farmer\\'s lung were identified from Hospital in Patients Enquiry (HIPE) unit of the national Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI) Dublin. Rainfall data were obtained from Met Eireann whereas population, hay production and silage production were obtained from the Central Statistics Office, Dublin. As the farming population is in decline, we used the annual working unit (AWU), which reflects the true population at risk. An AWU is the equivalent of 1800 hours per farm worker per year. The incidence rates were constant from 1982-1996, but from 1997-2002 a marked decline was observed. There was strong positive correlation with hay production (r = 0.81) and strong negative correlation with silage production (r = -0.82). This study indicates that the incidence of farmer\\'s lung is now in decline.

  19. Bulgaria: Ethnic differentials in rapidly declining fertility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimiter Philipov

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This chapter provides a detailed description of the fertility changes in Bulgaria during recent decades and discusses possible reasons and consequences. It also gives an overview of the steps that the government has undertaken to offset the considerable decline in fertility. Before the fall of communism, fertility trends in Bulgaria were stable and characterized by a nearly universal entry into parenthood, dominance of a two-child family model, an early start and early end of childbearing, stable mean ages at entry into childbearing and marriage, and low percentages of non-marital births. During the 1990s and in the first years of the new century, we observe a marked, rapid change in fertility behaviour. Together with the severe decline in overall fertility rates, demographic data reveal a significant postponement of entry into motherhood and marriage, a decline of the two-child family model, and an emergence of new family forms. Most research attributes these changes to the particular political and social situation in Bulgaria since 1989.

  20. Earliest functional declines in Huntington disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beglinger, Leigh J.; O'Rourke, Justin J.F.; Wang, Chiachi; Langbehn, Douglas R.; Duff, Kevin; Paulsen, Jane S.

    2013-01-01

    We examined the gold standard for Huntington disease (HD) functional assessment, the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS), in a group of at-risk participants not yet diagnosed but who later phenoconverted to manifest HD. We also sought to determine which skill domains first weaken and the clinical correlates of declines. Using the UHDRS Total Functional Capacity (TFC) and Functional Assessment Scale (FAS), we examined participants from Huntington Study Group clinics who were not diagnosed at their baseline visit but were diagnosed at a later visit (N = 265). Occupational decline was the most common with 65.1% (TFC) and 55.6% (FAS) reporting some loss of ability to engage in their typical work. Inability to manage finances independently (TFC 49.2%, FAS 35.1%) and drive safely (FAS 33.5%) were also found. Functional decline was significantly predicted by motor, cognitive, and depressive symptoms. The UHDRS captured early functional losses in individuals with HD prior to formal diagnosis, however, fruitful areas for expanded assessment of early functional changes are performance at work, ability to manage finances, and driving. These are also important areas for clinical monitoring and treatment planning as up to 65% experienced loss in at least one area prior to diagnosis. PMID:20471695

  1. Critique of historical reason

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David B. Richardson

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available El enfoque aquí desarrollado presupone una nueva visión del mundo civilizado (Weltanschauungen. La idea del historiador de los hechos históricos presupone una visión global del mundo, a excepción de las sociedades que carecen de un lenguaje escrito. Por eso, la razón histórica discutida aquí se limita al tipo de historia que trata de civilizaciones más elevadas. El análisis de visiones del mundo aquí utilizado presupone que los símbolos son muy importantes y que pierden su poder simbólico si se cristalizan en un único sentido. Como en la teoría de Jung, un símbolo tiene la capacidad de estar activo en la mente como un transformador de la conciencia, libre de asociarse con nuevas experiencias y pensamientos. Esta teoría presta especial atención al problema de Dilthey: es decir, el problema de la calidad racional de los hechos históricos. Las visiones del mundo, que dan un significado profundo a muchos hechos históricos, se componen de símbolos y metáforas, incluyendo ideas, imágenes, valores y emociones. Estos tipos de visiones son casi todos instintivos. Es cierto que los historiadores pueden haber formulado, consciente definiciones de estos tipos de visiones del mundo así como ocurrió por las civilizaciones griega y china. Dado que la actual Weltbilt es mucho más compleja e inconsciente, se necesita algo más que una definición lógica para entenderla. Este artículo indica la forma en que puede ser alcanzada una comprensión racional de estas visiones del mundo._____________ABSTRACT:The approach here entertained presupposes a fresh theory of world pictures (Weltanschauungen of higher civilizations. For the historian's idea of historical facts presupposes a world picture, except for societies which lack a written language. That is why the historical reason discussed here is limited to the kind of history which deals with higher civilizations. The analysis of world pictures used here itself presupposes that symbols are

  2. Basavarajeeyam: A historical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishteswar, K

    2011-10-01

    Basavarajeeyam is an important handbook for an Ayurvedic physician of Andhra region. It is a bilingual work and the content was presented in Sanskrit and Telugu languages. With regard to the place and date of Basavarajeeyam there is no common opinion among the present day scholars. Pt Govardhana Sharma Changani in his introduction to the Sanskrit version of Basavarajeeyam exposed a historical profile of Basavrajeeyam picturising him as Basava who was a staunch follower of Veerashaivism and a contemporary of king Bijjala (end of 12(th) cent. AD). The same statement is carried out in the works of Ayurvedic Itihasa written by Atredeva Vidyawalkan and Acharya Priyavrata Sharma. It appears that the historical evidence shown by these scholars is one sided and cannot stand any reason. Basavraju stated that he had started writing this work after a thorough study of many works such as Charaka, Nithyanatheeyam (1360 AD), Revenakalpam, Pujyapadiyam, Bahatam, Kashikhandam (1435 AD) etc. Basavraju has faithfully reproduced certain chapter of Vaidyachintamani, which is considered to be a work of 15(th) century. Basavraju not only mentioned Phirangiroga in the index of diseases described by him at the end of the book, but also indicated Phirangichekka (Madhusnuhi) in the management of Meharoga and Granthi. By this evidence Basavarajiyam should be considered as the work of post Bhavaprakasha period. Basavraju indicates in the Gulmaroga Chikitsa that Sankhadravaka should be administered in the dose of 'Ekanni'. The name Ekanni was given for a copper coin which came in to circulation of money during British India produced from Madras mint (1794 AD). Based on these internal evidences, it can be safely concluded that Basavraju belong to 18(th)century.

  3. Consistent Valuation across Curves Using Pricing Kernels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Macrina

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The general problem of asset pricing when the discount rate differs from the rate at which an asset’s cash flows accrue is considered. A pricing kernel framework is used to model an economy that is segmented into distinct markets, each identified by a yield curve having its own market, credit and liquidity risk characteristics. The proposed framework precludes arbitrage within each market, while the definition of a curve-conversion factor process links all markets in a consistent arbitrage-free manner. A pricing formula is then derived, referred to as the across-curve pricing formula, which enables consistent valuation and hedging of financial instruments across curves (and markets. As a natural application, a consistent multi-curve framework is formulated for emerging and developed inter-bank swap markets, which highlights an important dual feature of the curve-conversion factor process. Given this multi-curve framework, existing multi-curve approaches based on HJM and rational pricing kernel models are recovered, reviewed and generalised and single-curve models extended. In another application, inflation-linked, currency-based and fixed-income hybrid securities are shown to be consistently valued using the across-curve valuation method.

  4. Extinction debt as a driver of amphibian declines: An example with imperiled flatwoods salamanders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semiltsch, Raymond D; Walls, Susan; Barichivich, William J.; O'Donnell, Katherine

    2017-01-01

    A comprehensive view of population declines and their underlying causes is necessary to reverse species loss. Historically, in many cases, a narrow view may have allowed species declines to continue, virtually undetected, for long periods of time (perhaps even decades). We suggest that extinction debt is likely responsible for numerous (perhaps most) amphibian declines and that this perspective should be incorporated into the structure of amphibian research and management. Extinction debt, originally proposed to explain changes in species richness following environmental disturbance, also may refer to the proportion of populations of an individual species that is expected to eventually be lost because of habitat change. A conservation framework to address extinction debt focuses research on threats at the individual, population, and metapopulation levels. This approach will help enhance, restore, and protect specific processes and habitats at the proper scale by directing management to the most vulnerable level and stage of a species. We illustrate this approach using Flatwoods Salamanders, Ambystoma cingulatumand Ambystoma bishopi, which occurred historically throughout the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States but have experienced a greater than 85% loss of populations in recent years. Reversal of these losses is possible only if conservation and recovery efforts encompass individual, population, and metapopulation levels. We illustrate our framework by outlining actions that could be taken at each of these levels to help guide conservation and management of amphibians with complex life cycles and provide options for how to prioritize conservation actions in the face of logistical and budgetary shortfalls.

  5. Construction of calibration curve for accountancy tank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Takayuki; Goto, Yoshiki; Nidaira, Kazuo

    2009-01-01

    Tanks are equipped in a reprocessing plant for accounting solution of nuclear material. The careful measurement of volume in tanks is very important to implement rigorous accounting of nuclear material. The calibration curve relating the volume and level of solution needs to be constructed, where the level is determined by differential pressure of dip tubes. Several calibration curves are usually employed, but it's not explicitly decided how many segment are used, where to select segment, or what should be the degree of polynomial curve. These parameters, i.e., segment and degree of polynomial curve are mutually interrelated to give the better performance of calibration curve. Here we present the construction technique of giving optimum calibration curves and their characteristics. (author)

  6. MICA: Multiple interval-based curve alignment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Martin; Kahle, Hans-Peter; Beck, Matthias; Bender, Bela Johannes; Spiecker, Heinrich; Backofen, Rolf

    2018-01-01

    MICA enables the automatic synchronization of discrete data curves. To this end, characteristic points of the curves' shapes are identified. These landmarks are used within a heuristic curve registration approach to align profile pairs by mapping similar characteristics onto each other. In combination with a progressive alignment scheme, this enables the computation of multiple curve alignments. Multiple curve alignments are needed to derive meaningful representative consensus data of measured time or data series. MICA was already successfully applied to generate representative profiles of tree growth data based on intra-annual wood density profiles or cell formation data. The MICA package provides a command-line and graphical user interface. The R interface enables the direct embedding of multiple curve alignment computation into larger analyses pipelines. Source code, binaries and documentation are freely available at https://github.com/BackofenLab/MICA

  7. Inverse Diffusion Curves Using Shape Optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shuang; Durand, Fredo; Zheng, Changxi

    2018-07-01

    The inverse diffusion curve problem focuses on automatic creation of diffusion curve images that resemble user provided color fields. This problem is challenging since the 1D curves have a nonlinear and global impact on resulting color fields via a partial differential equation (PDE). We introduce a new approach complementary to previous methods by optimizing curve geometry. In particular, we propose a novel iterative algorithm based on the theory of shape derivatives. The resulting diffusion curves are clean and well-shaped, and the final image closely approximates the input. Our method provides a user-controlled parameter to regularize curve complexity, and generalizes to handle input color fields represented in a variety of formats.

  8. Expanding the Notion of Historical Text through Historic Building Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Christine; Dobbs, Christina

    2015-01-01

    Among the disciplinary skills necessary for understanding in the social studies classroom is the ability to determine context and build meaning from past events. Historical buildings are an important component of historical study, and they serve as a type of nontraditional text that students can decode and use to construct meaning about multiple…

  9. Historical consciousness - Contemporary history and the problem of historical perception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Den Hollander, JC

    2002-01-01

    Historical consciousness is an elusive concept, as long as we try to understand it from the narrow perspective of professional historians. Therefore, a wider perspective is needed. If we accept that historical understanding has become a general trait of modern culture, we may try to explain it in

  10. Historicity and theology, and the quest for historical Jesus1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Geyser

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available The issue of history and historicity is reviewed in this article. The efforts of New Historicism is brought to bear on this question in an effort to find a way out of the impasse created by the modernist demand for objectivity and the postmodern resignation to radical relativism. The possibility of historiography is explored in conjunction with the pragmatic approach and leads to the conclusion that a kind of historical knowledge is attainable which can be described as useful even if not perfect. The author concurs with Crossan and his working definition of history as the past reconstructed interactively by the present through argued evidence in public discourse. The intersubjective nature of any historical enterprise leads the author to the conclusion that the search for the historical Jesus can only be done in the dialectical approach of a both ... and: both the historical Jesus and the kerygmatic Christ

  11. Understanding the reductions in US corn ethanol production costs: An experience curve approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hettinga, W.G.; Junginger, H.M.; Dekker, S.C.; Hoogwijk, M.; McAloon, A.J.; Hicks, K.B.

    2009-01-01

    The US is currently the world's largest ethanol producer. An increasing percentage is used as transportation fuel, but debates continue on its costs competitiveness and energy balance. In this study, technological development of ethanol production and resulting cost reductions are investigated by using the experience curve approach, scrutinizing costs of dry grind ethanol production over the timeframe 1980-2005. Cost reductions are differentiated between feedstock (corn) production and industrial (ethanol) processing. Corn production costs in the US have declined by 62% over 30 years, down to 100$ 2005 /tonne in 2005, while corn production volumes almost doubled since 1975. A progress ratio (PR) of 0.55 is calculated indicating a 45% cost decline over each doubling in cumulative production. Higher corn yields and increasing farm sizes are the most important drivers behind this cost decline. Industrial processing costs of ethanol have declined by 45% since 1983, to below 130$ 2005 /m 3 in 2005 (excluding costs for corn and capital), equivalent to a PR of 0.87. Total ethanol production costs (including capital and net corn costs) have declined approximately 60% from 800$ 2005 /m 3 in the early 1980s, to 300$ 2005 /m 3 in 2005. Higher ethanol yields, lower energy use and the replacement of beverage alcohol-based production technologies have mostly contributed to this substantial cost decline. In addition, the average size of dry grind ethanol plants increased by 235% since 1990. For the future it is estimated that solely due to technological learning, production costs of ethanol may decline 28-44%, though this excludes effects of the current rising corn and fossil fuel costs. It is also concluded that experience curves are a valuable tool to describe both past and potential future cost reductions in US corn-based ethanol production

  12. A Latent Curve Model of Parental Motivational Practices and Developmental Decline in Math and Science Academic Intrinsic Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottfried, Adele Eskeles; Marcoulides, George A.; Gottfried, Allen W.; Oliver, Pamella H.

    2009-01-01

    A longitudinal approach was used to examine the effects of parental task-intrinsic and task-extrinsic motivational practices on academic intrinsic motivation in the subject areas of math and science. Parental task-intrinsic practices comprise encouragement of children's pleasure and engagement in the learning process, whereas task-extrinsic…

  13. String Sigma Models on Curved Supermanifolds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Catenacci

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We use the techniques of integral forms to analyze the easiest example of two-dimensional sigma models on a supermanifold. We write the action as an integral of a top integral form over a D = 2 supermanifold, and we show how to interpolate between different superspace actions. Then, we consider curved supermanifolds, and we show that the definitions used for flat supermanifolds can also be used for curved supermanifolds. We prove it by first considering the case of a curved rigid supermanifold and then the case of a generic curved supermanifold described by a single superfield E.

  14. Regional Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for NOx

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Data underlying the figures included in the manuscript "Marginal abatement cost curve for NOx incorporating controls, renewable electricity, energy efficiency and...

  15. UBVRIz LIGHT CURVES OF 51 TYPE II SUPERNOVAE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galbany, Lluis; Hamuy, Mario; Jaeger, Thomas de; Moraga, Tania; González-Gaitán, Santiago; Gutiérrez, Claudia P.; Phillips, Mark M.; Morrell, Nidia I.; Thomas-Osip, Joanna; Suntzeff, Nicholas B.; Maza, José; González, Luis; Antezana, Roberto; Wishnjewski, Marina; Krisciunas, Kevin; Krzeminski, Wojtek; McCarthy, Patrick; Anderson, Joseph P.; Stritzinger, Maximilian; Folatelli, Gastón

    2016-01-01

    We present a compilation of UBVRIz light curves of 51 type II supernovae discovered during the course of four different surveys during 1986–2003: the Cerro Tololo Supernova Survey, the Calán/Tololo Supernova Program (C and T), the Supernova Optical and Infrared Survey (SOIRS), and the Carnegie Type II Supernova Survey (CATS). The photometry is based on template-subtracted images to eliminate any potential host galaxy light contamination, and calibrated from foreground stars. This work presents these photometric data, studies the color evolution using different bands, and explores the relation between the magnitude at maximum brightness and the brightness decline parameter (s) from maximum light through the end of the recombination phase. This parameter is found to be shallower for redder bands and appears to have the best correlation in the B band. In addition, it also correlates with the plateau duration, being shorter (longer) for larger (smaller) s values

  16. UBVRIz LIGHT CURVES OF 51 TYPE II SUPERNOVAE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galbany, Lluis; Hamuy, Mario; Jaeger, Thomas de; Moraga, Tania; González-Gaitán, Santiago; Gutiérrez, Claudia P. [Millennium Institute of Astrophysics, Universidad de Chile (Chile); Phillips, Mark M.; Morrell, Nidia I.; Thomas-Osip, Joanna [Carnegie Observatories, Las Campanas Observatory, Casilla 60, La Serena (Chile); Suntzeff, Nicholas B. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Maza, José; González, Luis; Antezana, Roberto; Wishnjewski, Marina [Departamento de Astronomía, Universidad de Chile, Camino El Observatorio 1515, Las Condes, Santiago (Chile); Krisciunas, Kevin [George P. and Cynthia Woods Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy, Texas A. and M. University, Department of Physics and Astronomy, 4242 TAMU, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Krzeminski, Wojtek [N. Copernicus Astronomical Center, ul. Bartycka 18, 00-716 Warszawa (Poland); McCarthy, Patrick [The Observatories of the Carnegie Institution for Science, 813 Santa Barbara Street, Pasadena, CA 91101 (United States); Anderson, Joseph P. [European Southern Observatory, Alonso de Cordova 3107, Vitacura, Casilla 19001, Santiago (Chile); Stritzinger, Maximilian [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University (Denmark); Folatelli, Gastón, E-mail: lgalbany@das.uchile.cl [Instituto de Astrofísica de La Plata (IALP, CONICET) (Argentina); and others

    2016-02-15

    We present a compilation of UBVRIz light curves of 51 type II supernovae discovered during the course of four different surveys during 1986–2003: the Cerro Tololo Supernova Survey, the Calán/Tololo Supernova Program (C and T), the Supernova Optical and Infrared Survey (SOIRS), and the Carnegie Type II Supernova Survey (CATS). The photometry is based on template-subtracted images to eliminate any potential host galaxy light contamination, and calibrated from foreground stars. This work presents these photometric data, studies the color evolution using different bands, and explores the relation between the magnitude at maximum brightness and the brightness decline parameter (s) from maximum light through the end of the recombination phase. This parameter is found to be shallower for redder bands and appears to have the best correlation in the B band. In addition, it also correlates with the plateau duration, being shorter (longer) for larger (smaller) s values.

  17. Retrospective North American CFL Experience Curve Analysis and Correlation to Deployment Programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Sarah J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wei, Max [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-07-01

    Retrospective experience curves are a useful tool for understanding historic technology development, and can contribute to investment program analysis and future cost estimation efforts. This work documents our development of an analysis approach for deriving retrospective experience curves with a variable learning rate, and its application to develop an experience curve for compact fluorescent lamps for the global and North American markets over the years 1990-2007. Uncertainties and assumptions involved in interpreting data for our experience curve development are discussed, including the processing and transformation of empirical data, the selection of system boundaries, and the identification of historical changes in the learning rate over the course of 15 years. In the results that follow, we find that that the learning rate has changed at least once from 1990-2007. We also explore if, and to what degree, public deployment programs may have contributed to an increased technology learning rate in North America. We observe correlations between the changes in the learning rate and the initiation of new policies, abrupt technological advances, including improvements to ballast technology, and economic and political events such as trade tariffs and electricity prices. Finally, we discuss how the findings of this work (1) support the use of segmented experience curves for retrospective and prospective analysis and (2) may imply that investments in technological research and development have contributed to a change in market adoption and penetration.

  18. Differentiated decline in Danish outskirt areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Lea Louise Holst; Andersson, Lasse

    2011-01-01

    The latest figures show that minor Danish villages and rural areas through the last 20 years have suffered from depopulation and economical decline, and it is a development that seems to accelerate. The negative consequences of this development are low house prizes, a higher unemployment rate than...... in Danish rural areas can be reverted and a general growth can be created. But it will argue that on a local level using a landscape orientated and cultural planning approach new cohesion on a spatial, architectonic as well as economic and cultural level can be created. Throughout the studies of the Village...

  19. Decline in male circumcision in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, DaiSik; Koo, Sung-Ae; Pang, Myung-Geol

    2012-12-11

    To investigate the changing circumcision rate in South Korea in the last decade and to propose underlying causes for this change, in the context of the present fluctuating world-wide trends in circumcision. From 2009 to 2011, 3,296 South Korean males (or their parents) aged 0-64 years were asked about their circumcision status, their age at circumcision, and their information level regarding circumcision. We employed non-probability sampling considering the sensitive questions on the study theme. Currently the age-standardized circumcision rate for South Korean males aged 14-29 is found to be 75.8%. In an earlier study performed in 2002, the rate for the same age group was 86.3%. Of particular interest, males aged 14-16 show a circumcision rate of 56.4%, while the same age group 10 years ago displayed a much higher percentage, at 88.4%. In addition, the extraordinarily high circumcision rate of 95.2% found 10 years ago for the 17-19 age group is now reduced to 74.4%. Interestingly, of the circumcised males, the percentage circumcised in the last decade was only 25.2%; i.e., the majority of the currently circumcised males had undergone the operation prior to 2002, indicating that the actual change in the last decade is far greater. Consistent with this conjecture, the 2002 survey showed that the majority of circumcised males (75.7%) had undergone the operation in the decade prior to that point. Focusing on the flagship age group of 14-16, this drop suggests that, considering the population structure of Korean males, approximately one million fewer circumcision operations have been performed in the last decade relative to the case of non-decline. This decline is strongly correlated with the information available through internet, newspapers, lectures, books, and television: within the circumcised population, both the patients and their parents had less prior knowledge regarding circumcision, other than information obtained from person to person by oral communication

  20. HISTORICAL ASPECTS OF PHALLOPLASTY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. S. Kyzlasov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Reconstruction of the penis in transgender operations, amputation of the penis, congenital deformities and anomalies of the penis was and remains today an important issue in plastic surgery of the urogenital region. The only method to restore the penis is phalloplasty. In general, over the past decades, generations of clinicians have different ways and flaps for total fallouretheral reconstruction. Thus was formulated the characteristics of an ideal flap for the formation of neophallos, which should be safe, sensitive, without hair, and with long leg. However, despite the fact that the characteristics of a perfect flap, nowadays there is no “gold standard” in the formation of neophallos, as phalloplasty is a fairly complicated surgery, and the choice of method depends on many factors. The choice of methodology is determined by the plastics surgeon and to each patient is individual, depends on the etiology of the disease and the possibility of choosing the form of the donor’s transplant. This article presents a literature review devoted to the historical aspects of phalloplasty. In the article, in chronological order reflected the evolution of the different forming methods neofallos, phallourethrоplasty, describes their advantages and disadvantages.

  1. Analyzing and Interpreting Historical Sources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kipping, Matthias; Wadhwani, Dan; Bucheli, Marcelo

    2014-01-01

    This chapter outlines a methodology for the interpretation of historical sources, helping to realize their full potential for the study of organization, while overcoming their challenges in terms of distortions created by time, changes in context, and selective production or preservation. Drawing....... The chapter contributes to the creation of a language for describing the use of historical sources in management research....

  2. What Is Linked Historical Data?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meroño-Peñuela, Albert; Hoekstra, Rinke; Janowicz, Krzysztof; Schlobach, Stefan; Lambrix, Patrick; Hyvönen, Eero

    2014-01-01

    Datasets that represent historical sources are relative new- comers in the Linked Open Data (LOD) cloud. Following the standard LOD practices for publishing historical sources raises several questions: how can we distinguish between RDF graphs of primary and secondary sources? Should we treat

  3. The Aggregate Dutch Historical Censuses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ashkpour, Ashkan; Meroño-Peñuela, Albert; Mandemakers, Kees

    2015-01-01

    Historical censuses have an enormous potential for research. In order to fully use this potential, harmonization of these censuses is essential. During the last decades, enormous efforts have been undertaken in digitizing the published aggregated outcomes of the Dutch historical censuses

  4. The Aggregate Dutch Historical Censuses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Ashkpour (Ashkan); A. Meronõ-Peñuela (Albert); C.A. Mandemakers (Kees)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractHistorical censuses have an enormous potential for research. In order to fully use this potential, harmonization of these censuses is essential. During the last decades, enormous efforts have been undertaken in digitizing the published aggregated outcomes of the Dutch historical censuses

  5. The Return of Historical Fiction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rycik, Mary Taylor; Rosler, Brenda

    2009-01-01

    Recently, historical fiction has begun to dominate major children's book awards. This article describes the values of using high-quality historical fiction in the classroom and presents different ways to respond to this genre including using modern technology. Two tables, one of picture books and one of novels, with paired nonfiction texts, are…

  6. NEW CONCEPTS AND TEST METHODS OF CURVE PROFILE AREA DENSITY IN SURFACE: ESTIMATION OF AREAL DENSITY ON CURVED SPATIAL SURFACE

    OpenAIRE

    Hong Shen

    2011-01-01

    The concepts of curve profile, curve intercept, curve intercept density, curve profile area density, intersection density in containing intersection (or intersection density relied on intersection reference), curve profile intersection density in surface (or curve intercept intersection density relied on intersection of containing curve), and curve profile area density in surface (AS) were defined. AS expressed the amount of curve profile area of Y phase in the unit containing surface area, S...

  7. Potential errors when fitting experience curves by means of spreadsheet software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sark, W.G.J.H.M. van; Alsema, E.A.

    2010-01-01

    Progress ratios (PRs) are widely used in forecasting development of many technologies; they are derived from historical data represented in experience curves. Fitting the double logarithmic graphs is easily done with spreadsheet software like Microsoft Excel, by adding a trend line to the graph. However, it is unknown to many that these data are transformed to linear data before a fit is performed. This leads to erroneous results or a transformation bias in the PR, as we demonstrate using the experience curve for photovoltaic technology: logarithmic transformation leads to overestimates of progress ratios and underestimates of goodness of fit. Therefore, other graphing and analysis software is recommended.

  8. Polar representation of centrifugal pump homologous curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veloso, Marcelo Antonio; Mattos, Joao Roberto Loureiro de

    2008-01-01

    Essential for any mathematical model designed to simulate flow transient events caused by pump operations is the pump performance data. The performance of a centrifugal pump is characterized by four basic parameters: the rotational speed, the volumetric flow rate, the dynamic head, and the hydraulic torque. Any one of these quantities can be expressed as a function of any two others. The curves showing the relationships between these four variables are called the pump characteristic curves, also referred to as four-quadrant curves. The characteristic curves are empirically developed by the pump manufacturer and uniquely describe head and torque as functions of volumetric flow rate and rotation speed. Because of comprising a large amount of points, the four-quadrant configuration is not suitable for computational purposes. However, it can be converted to a simpler form by the development of the homologous curves, in which dynamic head and hydraulic torque ratios are expressed as functions of volumetric flow and rotation speed ratios. The numerical use of the complete set of homologous curves requires specification of sixteen partial curves, being eight for the dynamic head and eight for the hydraulic torque. As a consequence, the handling of homologous curves is still somewhat complicated. In solving flow transient problems that require the pump characteristic data for all the operation zones, the polar form appears as the simplest way to represent the homologous curves. In the polar method, the complete characteristics of a pump can be described by only two closed curves, one for the dynamic head and other for the hydraulic torque, both in function of a single angular coordinate defined adequately in terms of the quotient between volumetric flow ratio and rotation speed ratio. The usefulness and advantages of this alternative method are demonstrated through a practical example in which the homologous curves for a pump of the type used in the main coolant loops of a

  9. Modeling climate impact on an emerging disease, the Phytophthora alni-induced alder decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguayo, Jaime; Elegbede, Fabrice; Husson, Claude; Saintonge, François-Xavier; Marçais, Benoît

    2014-10-01

    Alder decline caused by Phytophthora alni is one of the most important emerging diseases in natural ecosystems in Europe, where it has threatened riparian ecosystems for the past 20 years. Environmental factors, such as mean site temperature and soil characteristics, play an important role in the occurrence of the disease. The objective of the present work was to model and forecast the effect of environment on the severity of alder Phytophthora outbreaks, and to determine whether recent climate change might explain the disease emergence. Two alder sites networks in NE and SW France were surveyed to assess the crown health of trees; the oomycete soil inoculum was also monitored in the NE network. The main factors explaining the temporal annual variation in alder crown decline or crown recovery were the mean previous winter and previous summer temperatures. Both low winter temperatures and high summer temperatures were unfavorable to the disease. Cold winters promoted tree recovery because of poor survival of the pathogen, while hot summer temperature limited the incidence of tree decline. An SIS model explaining the dynamics of the P. alni-induced alder decline was developed using the data of the NE site network and validated using the SW site network. This model was then used to simulate the frequency of declining alder over time with historical climate data. The last 40 years' weather conditions have been generally favorable to the establishment of the disease, indicating that others factors may be implicated in its emergence. The model, however, showed that the climate of SW France was much more favorable for the disease than that of the Northeast, because it seldom limited the overwintering of the pathogen. Depending on the European area, climate change could either enhance or decrease the severity of the alder decline. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Decline of the world's saline lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurtsbaugh, Wayne A.; Miller, Craig; Null, Sarah E.; Derose, R. Justin; Wilcock, Peter; Hahnenberger, Maura; Howe, Frank; Moore, Johnnie

    2017-11-01

    Many of the world's saline lakes are shrinking at alarming rates, reducing waterbird habitat and economic benefits while threatening human health. Saline lakes are long-term basin-wide integrators of climatic conditions that shrink and grow with natural climatic variation. In contrast, water withdrawals for human use exert a sustained reduction in lake inflows and levels. Quantifying the relative contributions of natural variability and human impacts to lake inflows is needed to preserve these lakes. With a credible water balance, causes of lake decline from water diversions or climate variability can be identified and the inflow needed to maintain lake health can be defined. Without a water balance, natural variability can be an excuse for inaction. Here we describe the decline of several of the world's large saline lakes and use a water balance for Great Salt Lake (USA) to demonstrate that consumptive water use rather than long-term climate change has greatly reduced its size. The inflow needed to maintain bird habitat, support lake-related industries and prevent dust storms that threaten human health and agriculture can be identified and provides the information to evaluate the difficult tradeoffs between direct benefits of consumptive water use and ecosystem services provided by saline lakes.

  11. The cultural evolution of fertility decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colleran, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    Cultural evolutionists have long been interested in the problem of why fertility declines as populations develop. By outlining plausible mechanistic links between individual decision-making, information flow in populations and competition between groups, models of cultural evolution offer a novel and powerful approach for integrating multiple levels of explanation of fertility transitions. However, only a modest number of models have been published. Their assumptions often differ from those in other evolutionary approaches to social behaviour, but their empirical predictions are often similar. Here I offer the first overview of cultural evolutionary research on demographic transition, critically compare it with approaches taken by other evolutionary researchers, identify gaps and overlaps, and highlight parallel debates in demography. I suggest that researchers divide their labour between three distinct phases of fertility decline—the origin, spread and maintenance of low fertility—each of which may be driven by different causal processes, at different scales, requiring different theoretical and empirical tools. A comparative, multi-level and mechanistic framework is essential for elucidating both the evolved aspects of our psychology that govern reproductive decision-making, and the social, ecological and cultural contingencies that precipitate and sustain fertility decline. PMID:27022079

  12. The impact of freedom on fertility decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martha M; Prata, Ndola; Potts, Malcolm

    2013-01-01

    Although fertility decline often correlates with improvements in socioeconomic conditions, many demographers have found flaws in demographic transition theories that depend on changes in distal factors such as increased wealth or education. Human beings worldwide engage in sexual intercourse much more frequently than is needed to conceive the number of children they want, and for women who do not have access to the information and means they need to separate sex from childbearing, the default position is a large family. In many societies, male patriarchal drives to control female reproduction give rise to unnecessary medical rules constraining family planning (including safe abortion) or justifying child marriage. Widespread misinformation about contraception makes women afraid to adopt modern family planning. The barriers to family planning can be so deeply infused that for many women the idea of managing their fertility is not considered an option. Conversely, there is evidence that once family planning is introduced into a society, then it is normal consumer behaviour for individuals to welcome a new technology they had not wanted until it became realistically available. We contend that in societies free from child marriage, wherever women have access to a range of contraceptive methods, along with correct information and backed up by safe abortion, family size will always fall. Education and wealth can make the adoption of family planning easier, but they are not prerequisites for fertility decline. By contrast, access to family planning itself can accelerate economic development and the spread of education.

  13. The Decline of Traditional Banking Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Cornelia Piciu

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The decline of traditional banking activities raise the issue of efficiency of financial stability, in terms ofquantitative and qualitative aspects – the increasing danger of banking failures as well as of susceptibility due toincreased propensity of banking institutions to assume additional to risks either in the form of riskier loans offer orengaging in other "non-traditional" financial activities which give a promise for greater profitability, but also higherrisks. Non-traditional activities of banking as financial products dealers (financial derivatives, generate an increasingrisks and vulnerabilities in the form of moral hazard issues. That is the reason why and these activities should beregulated as well as are the traditional activities. Challenges posed by the decline of traditional banking activities istwofold: the stability of the banking system must be maintained, while the banking system needs to be restructured toachieve financial stability in the long run. One possible way is an appropriate regulatory framework to encourage atransition period of changing the structure of banking activity(reduction of traditional activities and expanding nontraditional activities to enable banking institutions to perform a deep methodic analysis of non traditional activities,oriented to the financial banking efficiency.

  14. The legacy of slavery and contemporary declines in heart disease mortality in the U.S. South

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Kramer

    2017-12-01

    Conclusions: Nearly 50 years of declining heart disease mortality is a major public health success, but one marked by uneven progress by place and race. At the county level, progress in heart disease mortality reduction among Blacks is associated with place-based historical legacy of slavery. Effective and equitable public health prevention efforts should consider the historical context of place and the social and economic institutions that may play a role in facilitating or impeding diffusion of prevention efforts thereby producing heart healthy places and populations.

  15. Quantitative historical change in bumblebee (Bombus spp. assemblages of red clover fields.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoko L Dupont

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Flower visiting insects provide a vitally important pollination service for many crops and wild plants. Recent decline of pollinating insects due to anthropogenic modification of habitats and climate, in particular from 1950's onwards, is a major and widespread concern. However, few studies document the extent of declines in species diversity, and no studies have previously quantified local abundance declines. We here make a quantitative assessment of recent historical changes in bumblebee assemblages by comparing contemporary and historical survey data. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We take advantage of detailed, quantitative historical survey data from the 1930's on bumblebee (Bombus spp. abundances and species composition in red clover (Trifolium pratense fields, an important floral resource and an attractant of all bumblebee species. We used the historical survey data as a pre-industrialization baseline, and repeated the same sampling protocol at nearly the same localities at present, hence setting up a historical experiment. We detected historical changes in abundances (bees/m(2 of both workers (the "pollinatory units" and queens (effective population size, in addition to species composition. In particular, long-tongued bumblebee species showed consistent and dramatic declines in species richness and abundances throughout the flowering season of red clover, while short-tongued species were largely unaffected. Of 12 Bombus species observed in the 1930's, five species were not observed at present. The latter were all long-tongued, late-emerging species. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Because bumblebees are important pollinators, historical changes in local bumblebee assemblages are expected to severely affect plant reproduction, in particular long-tubed species, which are pollinated by long-tongued bumblebees.

  16. Status and trends of amphibian declines and extinctions worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart, Simon N; Chanson, Janice S; Cox, Neil A; Young, Bruce E; Rodrigues, Ana S L; Fischman, Debra L; Waller, Robert W

    2004-12-03

    The first global assessment of amphibians provides new context for the well-publicized phenomenon of amphibian declines. Amphibians are more threatened and are declining more rapidly than either birds or mammals. Although many declines are due to habitat loss and overutilization, other, unidentified processes threaten 48% of rapidly declining species and are driving species most quickly to extinction. Declines are nonrandom in terms of species' ecological preferences, geographic ranges, and taxonomic associations and are most prevalent among Neotropical montane, stream-associated species. The lack of conservation remedies for these poorly understood declines means that hundreds of amphibian species now face extinction.

  17. Migration and the Wage-Settings Curve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brücker, Herbert; Jahn, Elke

    Germany on basis of a wage-setting curve. The wage-setting curve relies on the assumption that wages respond to a hange in the unemployment rate, albeit imperfectly. This allows one to derive the wage and employment effects of migration simultaneously in a general equilibrium framework. Using...

  18. Learning curves in energy planning models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barreto, L; Kypreos, S [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    This study describes the endogenous representation of investment cost learning curves into the MARKAL energy planning model. A piece-wise representation of the learning curves is implemented using Mixed Integer Programming. The approach is briefly described and some results are presented. (author) 3 figs., 5 refs.

  19. The Koch curve as a smooth manifold

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epstein, Marcelo; Sniatycki, Jedrzej

    2008-01-01

    We show that there exists a homeomorphism between the closed interval [0,1] is contained in R and the Koch curve endowed with the subset topology of R 2 . We use this homeomorphism to endow the Koch curve with the structure of a smooth manifold with boundary

  20. Fermionic fields on ZN-curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bershadsky, M.; Radul, A.

    1988-01-01

    The line bundles of degree g-1 on Z N -curves corresponding to 1/N nonsingular characteristics are considered. The determinants of Dirac operators defined on these line bundles are evaluated in terms of branch points. The generalization of Thomae's formula for Z N -curves is derived. (orig.)

  1. Measuring Model Rocket Engine Thrust Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penn, Kim; Slaton, William V.

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes a method and setup to quickly and easily measure a model rocket engine's thrust curve using a computer data logger and force probe. Horst describes using Vernier's LabPro and force probe to measure the rocket engine's thrust curve; however, the method of attaching the rocket to the force probe is not discussed. We show how a…

  2. A minicourse on moduli of curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Looijenga, E.

    2000-01-01

    These are notes that accompany a short course given at the School on Algebraic Geometry 1999 at the ICTP, Trieste. A major goal is to outline various approaches to moduli spaces of curves. In the last part I discuss the algebraic classes that naturally live on these spaces; these can be thought of as the characteristic classes for bundles of curves. (author)

  3. Minimal families of curves on surfaces

    KAUST Repository

    Lubbes, Niels

    2014-01-01

    A minimal family of curves on an embedded surface is defined as a 1-dimensional family of rational curves of minimal degree, which cover the surface. We classify such minimal families using constructive methods. This allows us to compute the minimal

  4. Symmetry Properties of Potentiometric Titration Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macca, Carlo; Bombi, G. Giorgio

    1983-01-01

    Demonstrates how the symmetry properties of titration curves can be efficiently and rigorously treated by means of a simple method, assisted by the use of logarithmic diagrams. Discusses the symmetry properties of several typical titration curves, comparing the graphical approach and an explicit mathematical treatment. (Author/JM)

  5. Deep-learnt classification of light curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahabal, Ashish; Gieseke, Fabian; Pai, Akshay Sadananda Uppinakudru

    2017-01-01

    Astronomy light curves are sparse, gappy, and heteroscedastic. As a result standard time series methods regularly used for financial and similar datasets are of little help and astronomers are usually left to their own instruments and techniques to classify light curves. A common approach is to d...

  6. Hyper-and-elliptic-curve cryptography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bernstein, D.J.; Lange, T.

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces ‘hyper-and-elliptic-curve cryptography’, in which a single high-security group supports fast genus-2-hyperelliptic-curve formulas for variable-base-point single-scalar multiplication (for example, Diffie–Hellman shared-secret computation) and at the same time supports fast

  7. Curve Matching with Applications in Medical Imaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bauer, Martin; Bruveris, Martins; Harms, Philipp

    2015-01-01

    In the recent years, Riemannian shape analysis of curves and surfaces has found several applications in medical image analysis. In this paper we present a numerical discretization of second order Sobolev metrics on the space of regular curves in Euclidean space. This class of metrics has several...

  8. Twentieth-century warming and the dendroclimatology of declining yellow-cedar forests in southeastern Alaska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beier, C.M. [Alaska Fairbanks Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Biology and Wildlife; Sink, S.E.; Juday, G.P. [Alaska Fairbanks Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences; Hennon, P.E.; D' Amore, D.V. [United States Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service, Juneau, AK (United States). Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory

    2008-06-15

    The decline of yellow cedar in temperate rainforests in southeastern Alaska was investigated. Dieback of the species has been observed as early as 1909. The dehardening process for the species is highly temperature-dependent. Declining stands have been found in open-canopy forests on poorly drained sites. Historical climate data sets were compiled suing extensive tree-ring chronologies. The aim of the study was to test the hypothesis that a specific suite of microclimatic conditions that occur during late winter involving early dehardening, reduced snowpack, and freezing injury are responsible. The assumption was tested by examining regional climatic trends and growth responses of declining cedar populations. Results of the study showed increasing winter temperatures in the region which have resulted in the frequent occurrence of severe thaw-freeze events. Late winter weather was the best predictor of annual growth for surviving trees. Results of the study also verified the impact of elevational gradients of temperature and snow cover on the exposure of the trees to climatic stressors. It was concluded that yellow cedars may continue to decline with continued climatic warming. 36 refs., 6 tabs., 8 figs.

  9. Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Hans; Chapron, Guillaume; Nowell, Kristin; Henschel, Philipp; Funston, Paul; Hunter, Luke T B; Macdonald, David W; Packer, Craig

    2015-12-01

    We compiled all credible repeated lion surveys and present time series data for 47 lion (Panthera leo) populations. We used a Bayesian state space model to estimate growth rate-λ for each population and summed these into three regional sets to provide conservation-relevant estimates of trends since 1990. We found a striking geographical pattern: African lion populations are declining everywhere, except in four southern countries (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe). Population models indicate a 67% chance that lions in West and Central Africa decline by one-half, while estimating a 37% chance that lions in East Africa also decline by one-half over two decades. We recommend separate regional assessments of the lion in the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species: already recognized as critically endangered in West Africa, our analysis supports listing as regionally endangered in Central and East Africa and least concern in southern Africa. Almost all lion populations that historically exceeded ∼ 500 individuals are declining, but lion conservation is successful in southern Africa, in part because of the proliferation of reintroduced lions in small, fenced, intensively managed, and funded reserves. If management budgets for wild lands cannot keep pace with mounting levels of threat, the species may rely increasingly on these southern African areas and may no longer be a flagship species of the once vast natural ecosystems across the rest of the continent.

  10. Sequential Gaussian co-simulation of rate decline parameters of longwall gob gas ventholes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karacan, C. Özgen; Olea, Ricardo A.

    2013-01-01

    Gob gas ventholes (GGVs) are used to control methane inflows into a longwall mining operation by capturing the gas within the overlying fractured strata before it enters the work environment. Using geostatistical co-simulation techniques, this paper maps the parameters of their rate decline behaviors across the study area, a longwall mine in the Northern Appalachian basin. Geostatistical gas-in-place (GIP) simulations were performed, using data from 64 exploration boreholes, and GIP data were mapped within the fractured zone of the study area. In addition, methane flowrates monitored from 10 GGVs were analyzed using decline curve analyses (DCA) techniques to determine parameters of decline rates. Surface elevation showed the most influence on methane production from GGVs and thus was used to investigate its relation with DCA parameters using correlation techniques on normal-scored data. Geostatistical analysis was pursued using sequential Gaussian co-simulation with surface elevation as the secondary variable and with DCA parameters as the primary variables. The primary DCA variables were effective percentage decline rate, rate at production start, rate at the beginning of forecast period, and production end duration. Co-simulation results were presented to visualize decline parameters at an area-wide scale. Wells located at lower elevations, i.e., at the bottom of valleys, tend to perform better in terms of their rate declines compared to those at higher elevations. These results were used to calculate drainage radii of GGVs using GIP realizations. The calculated drainage radii are close to ones predicted by pressure transient tests.

  11. Remote sensing used for power curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, R; Joergensen, H E; Paulsen, U S; Larsen, T J; Antoniou, I; Thesbjerg, L

    2008-01-01

    Power curve measurement for large wind turbines requires taking into account more parameters than only the wind speed at hub height. Based on results from aerodynamic simulations, an equivalent wind speed taking the wind shear into account was defined and found to reduce the power standard deviation in the power curve significantly. Two LiDARs and a SoDAR are used to measure the wind profile in front of a wind turbine. These profiles are used to calculate the equivalent wind speed. The comparison of the power curves obtained with the three instruments to the traditional power curve, obtained using a cup anemometer measurement, confirms the results obtained from the simulations. Using LiDAR profiles reduces the error in power curve measurement, when these are used as relative instrument together with a cup anemometer. Results from the SoDAR do not show such promising results, probably because of noisy measurements resulting in distorted profiles

  12. The legacy of slavery and contemporary declines in heart disease mortality in the U.S. South.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Michael R; Black, Nyesha C; Matthews, Stephen A; James, Sherman A

    2017-12-01

    This study aims to characterize the role of county-specific legacy of slavery in patterning temporal (i.e., 1968-2014), and geographic (i.e., Southern counties) declines in heart disease mortality. In this context, the U.S. has witnessed dramatic declines in heart disease mortality since the 1960's, which have benefitted place and race groups unevenly, with slower declines in the South, especially for the Black population. Age-adjusted race- and county-specific mortality rates from 1968-2014 for all diseases of the heart were calculated for all Southern U.S. counties. Candidate confounding and mediating covariates from 1860, 1930, and 1970, were combined with mortality data in multivariable regression models to estimate the ecological association between the concentration of slavery in1860 and declines in heart disease mortality from 1968-2014. Black populations, in counties with a history of highest versus lowest concentration of slavery, experienced a 17% slower decline in heart disease mortality. The association for Black populations varied by region (stronger in Deep South than Upper South states) and was partially explained by intervening socioeconomic factors. In models accounting for spatial autocorrelation, there was no association between slave concentration and heart disease mortality decline for Whites. Nearly 50 years of declining heart disease mortality is a major public health success, but one marked by uneven progress by place and race. At the county level, progress in heart disease mortality reduction among Blacks is associated with place-based historical legacy of slavery. Effective and equitable public health prevention efforts should consider the historical context of place and the social and economic institutions that may play a role in facilitating or impeding diffusion of prevention efforts thereby producing heart healthy places and populations. Graphical abstract.

  13. Parametric representation of centrifugal pump homologous curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veloso, Marcelo A.; Mattos, Joao R.L. de

    2015-01-01

    Essential for any mathematical model designed to simulate flow transient events caused by pump operations is the pump performance data. The performance of a centrifugal pump is characterized by four basic quantities: the rotational speed, the volumetric flow rate, the dynamic head, and the hydraulic torque. The curves showing the relationships between these four variables are called the pump characteristic curves. The characteristic curves are empirically developed by the pump manufacturer and uniquely describe head and torque as functions of volumetric flow rate and rotation speed. Because of comprising a large amount of points, this configuration is not suitable for computational purposes. However, it can be converted to a simpler form by the development of the homologous curves, in which dynamic head and hydraulic torque ratios are expressed as functions of volumetric flow and rotation speed ratios. The numerical use of the complete set of homologous curves requires specification of sixteen partial curves, being eight for the dynamic head and eight for the hydraulic torque. As a consequence, the handling of homologous curves is still somewhat complicated. In solving flow transient problems that require the pump characteristic data for all the operation zones, the parametric form appears as the simplest way to deal with the homologous curves. In this approach, the complete characteristics of a pump can be described by only two closed curves, one for the dynamic head and other for the hydraulic torque, both in function of a single angular coordinate defined adequately in terms of the quotient between volumetric flow ratio and rotation speed ratio. The usefulness and advantages of this alternative method are demonstrated through a practical example in which the homologous curves for a pump of the type used in the main coolant loops of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) are transformed to the parametric form. (author)

  14. Insulin is Differentially Related to Cognitive Decline and Atrophy in Alzheimer’s Disease and Aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Jeffrey M.; Honea, Robyn A.; Vidoni, Eric D.; Hutfles, Lewis; Brooks, William M.; Swerdlow, Russell H.

    2012-01-01

    We assessed the relationship of insulin resistance with cognitive decline and brain atrophy over two years in early Alzheimer’s disease (AD, n=48) and nondemented controls (n=61). Intravenous glucose tolerance tests were conducted at baseline to determine insulin area-under-the-curve (AUC). A standard battery of cognitive tasks and MRI were conducted at baseline and 2-year follow-up. In nondemented controls, higher baseline insulin AUC was associated with 2-year decline in global cognitive performance (beta=−0.36, p=0.005). In early AD, however, higher insulin AUC was associated with less decline in global cognitive performance (beta=0.26, p=0.06), slower global brain atrophy (beta=0.40, p=0.01) and less regional atrophy in the bilateral hippocampi and cingulate cortices. While insulin resistance is associated with cognitive decline in nondemented aging, higher peripheral insulin may have AD-specific benefits or insulin signaling may be affected by systemic physiologic changes associated with AD. PMID:21745566

  15. Nanostructural control of methane release in kerogen and its implications to wellbore production decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Tuan Anh; Criscenti, Louise J.; Wang, Yifeng

    2016-06-01

    Despite massive success of shale gas production in the US in the last few decades there are still major concerns with the steep decline in wellbore production and the large uncertainty in a long-term projection of decline curves. A reliable projection must rely on a mechanistic understanding of methane release in shale matrix-a limiting step in shale gas extraction. Using molecular simulations, we here show that methane release in nanoporous kerogen matrix is characterized by fast release of pressurized free gas (accounting for ~30-47% recovery) followed by slow release of adsorbed gas as the gas pressure decreases. The first stage is driven by the gas pressure gradient while the second stage is controlled by gas desorption and diffusion. We further show that diffusion of all methane in nanoporous kerogen behaves differently from the bulk phase, with much smaller diffusion coefficients. The MD simulations also indicate that a significant fraction (3-35%) of methane deposited in kerogen can potentially become trapped in isolated nanopores and thus not recoverable. Our results shed a new light on mechanistic understanding gas release and production decline in unconventional reservoirs. The long-term production decline appears controlled by the second stage of gas release.

  16. P wave dispersion and maximum P wave duration are independently associated with rapid renal function decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Ho-Ming; Tsai, Wei-Chung; Lin, Tsung-Hsien; Hsu, Po-Chao; Lee, Wen-Hsien; Lin, Ming-Yen; Chen, Szu-Chia; Lee, Chee-Siong; Voon, Wen-Chol; Lai, Wen-Ter; Sheu, Sheng-Hsiung

    2012-01-01

    The P wave parameters measured by 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) are commonly used as noninvasive tools to assess for left atrial enlargement. There are limited studies to evaluate whether P wave parameters are independently associated with decline in renal function. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to assess whether P wave parameters are independently associated with progression to renal end point of ≥25% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). This longitudinal study included 166 patients. The renal end point was defined as ≥25% decline in eGFR. We measured two ECG P wave parameters corrected by heart rate, i.e. corrected P wave dispersion (PWdisperC) and corrected P wave maximum duration (PWdurMaxC). Heart function and structure were measured from echocardiography. Clinical data, P wave parameters, and echocardiographic measurements were compared and analyzed. Forty-three patients (25.9%) reached renal end point. Kaplan-Meier curves for renal end point-free survival showed PWdisperC > median (63.0 ms) (log-rank P = 0.004) and PWdurMaxC > median (117.9 ms) (log-rank Pfunction decline.

  17. Computerised curve deconvolution of TL/OSL curves using a popular spreadsheet program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afouxenidis, D; Polymeris, G S; Tsirliganis, N C; Kitis, G

    2012-05-01

    This paper exploits the possibility of using commercial software for thermoluminescence and optically stimulated luminescence curve deconvolution analysis. The widely used software package Microsoft Excel, with the Solver utility has been used to perform deconvolution analysis to both experimental and reference glow curves resulted from the GLOw Curve ANalysis INtercomparison project. The simple interface of this programme combined with the powerful Solver utility, allows the analysis of complex stimulated luminescence curves into their components and the evaluation of the associated luminescence parameters.

  18. Computerised curve deconvolution of TL/OSL curves using a popular spreadsheet program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afouxenidis, D.; Polymeris, G. S.; Tsirliganis, N. C.; Kitis, G.

    2012-01-01

    This paper exploits the possibility of using commercial software for thermoluminescence and optically stimulated luminescence curve deconvolution analysis. The widely used software package Microsoft Excel, with the Solver utility has been used to perform deconvolution analysis to both experimental and reference glow curves resulted from the Glow Curve Analysis Intercomparison project. The simple interface of this programme combined with the powerful Solver utility, allows the analysis of complex stimulated luminescence curves into their components and the evaluation of the associated luminescence parameters. (authors)

  19. The decline in Australian young male suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrell, Stephen; Page, Andrew N; Taylor, Richard J

    2007-02-01

    Since the late 1990s there has been a sharp downward trend in Australian young male suicide. It is possible that a major government youth suicide prevention initiative, the National Youth Suicide Prevention Strategy (NYSPS), implemented during 1995-1999 may have influenced the decline. In this article, we examine time trends in age- and means-specific male and female Australian suicide rates in relation to unemployment rates and the NYSPS. Based on Australian suicide data over the period 1966-2003, we assess secular changes in the 20-24 year male suicide to total (crude) male suicide rate ratio in relation to the NYSPS, using interrupted time series analysis (ARIMA), since this was previously found to be significantly associated with the 20-24 year male unemployment to total employment ratio. Results show that a dramatic reduction in Australian young male (aged 20-34 years) suicide has occurred since 1997-1998, declining from approximately 40 per 100,000 in 1997-1998 to approximately 20 per 100,000 in 2003. Most of the decline is due to a decrease in suicide by hanging and to a lesser extent from motor vehicle carbon monoxide and other gases. Further, the previously established strong secular association (lasting over 3 decades from 1966) between the rate ratio of 20-24 year male suicide to total (crude) male suicide, and the rate ratio of 20-24 year male unemployment to total unemployment, appears to have been disrupted. ARIMA modelling of the suicide ratio against the initiative indicates a highly significant statistical association between the NYSPS and the suicide ratio reduction but not between the NYSPS and the unemployment indicator trend, suggesting a break in the link between young male suicide and unemployment. The recent sudden turnaround in Australian young male suicide trends and its extent appears to preclude explanations centring on slow-moving social indices traditionally associated with suicide, or on possible cohort effects. This sudden decrease

  20. Do Historical Changes in Parent-Child Relationships Explain Increases in Youth Conduct Problems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collishaw, Stephan; Gardner, Frances; Maughan, Barbara; Scott, Jacqueline; Pickles, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    The coincidence of historical trends in youth antisocial behavior and change in family demographics has led to speculation of a causal link, possibly mediated by declining quality of parenting and parent-child relationships. No study to date has directly assessed whether and how parenting and parent-child relationships have changed. Two national…

  1. Mannheim Partner D-Curves in the Euclidean 3-space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Kazaz

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the idea of Mannheim partner curves for curves lying on surfaces. By considering the Darboux frames of surface curves, we define Mannheim partner D-curves and give the characterizations for these curves. We also find the relations between geodesic curvatures, normal curvatures and geodesic torsions of these associated curves. Furthermore, we show that definition and characterizations of Mannheim partner D-curves include those of Mannheim partner curves in some special cases.

  2. A versatile curve-fit model for linear to deeply concave rank abundance curves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neuteboom, J.H.; Struik, P.C.

    2005-01-01

    A new, flexible curve-fit model for linear to concave rank abundance curves was conceptualized and validated using observational data. The model links the geometric-series model and log-series model and can also fit deeply concave rank abundance curves. The model is based ¿ in an unconventional way

  3. FACTORS IMPLICATED IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES IN THE UNITED STATES

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study identified the factors responsible for the decline of native amphibians in the U.S. The type of land use, the introduction of exotic animal species, and chemical contamination were identified as the most likely causes of decline.

  4. Accuracy of progress ratios determined from experience curves: the case of photovoltaic technology development

    OpenAIRE

    van Sark, W.G.J.H.M.; Alsema, E.A.; Junginger, H.M.; de Moor, H.H.C.; Schaeffer, G.J.

    2008-01-01

    Learning curves are extensively used in policy and scenario studies. Progress ratios (PRs) are derived from historical data and are used for forecasting cost development of many technologies, including photovoltaics (PV). Forecasts are highly sensitive to uncertainties in the PR. A PR usually is determined together with the coefficient of determination R2, which should approach unity for a good fit of the available data. Although the R2 is instructive, we recommend using the error in the PR d...

  5. Capacity market design and renewable energy: Performance incentives, qualifying capacity, and demand curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Botterud, Audun; Levin, Todd; Byers, Conleigh

    2018-01-01

    A review of capacity markets in the United States in the context of increasing levels of variable renewable energy finds substantial differences with respect to incentives for operational performance, methods to calculate qualifying capacity for variable renewable energy and energy storage, and demand curves for capacity. The review also reveals large differences in historical capacity market clearing prices. The authors conclude that electricity market design must continue to evolve to achieve cost-effective policies for resource adequacy.

  6. Russia's defense spending and the economic decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Oxenstierna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to explore the development of Russian military spending in light of weak and negative growth of the Russian economy and to look at the reasons for the economic decline that has developed after the economic crisis in 2009 and is due to long-term internal structural factors that have existed since the mid-2000s. The confidence crisis resulting from Russia's aggression against Ukraine 2014, Western sanctions and falling oil prices has further aggravated these tendencies and the economy is now contracting. The main conclusions are that the share of the defense budget in GDP has risen substantially, but there is still a trade-off between defense and other public spending in the budget. Political reform would be necessary to implement market institutions and revive the economy.

  7. Differential diagnosis for cognitive decline in elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Om Prakash

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive decline has a spectrum of presentations, which manifest from normality as part of senility to the established form of various neurodegenerative illnesses causing dementia. Understanding these various differential diagnoses is of great clinical significance as they have different management and interventional strategies. The neuropsychological deficits which are identified should follow known neuropathological disease patterns that helps in distinguishing different types of cognitive impairment to established dementia. It is important to look at different cognitive impairment in elderly with core diagnostic sense to define severity, type of cognitive impairments, identifying patients need for accommodation or adaptation, associated risks, effectiveness of therapies and predict mortality. This would help clinicians to identify and plan management based on individual needs in cases with variable cognitive impairment.

  8. Condensate recovery by cycling at declining pressures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Havlena, Z G; Griffith, J D; Pot, R; Kiel, O G

    1967-06-05

    Cycling condensate reservoirs under conditions of declining pressure, rather than constant pressure, is advantageous from both a recovery and an economic standpoint. Wet gas displaced from the swept areas is recovered concurrently with wet gas recovered by gas expansion from the unswept portions of the reservoir. Any liquid condensed in the swept areas is revaporized by dry injection gas and recovered as an enriched gas. By this mode of operation, high condensate recovery is obtained, gas sales may be possible at an earlier stage of depletion, more flexibility in field and plant operations is feasible and reduction of 15% in investment and operating costs is achieved. Injection gas requirements are reduced by 40%. The Windfall reservoir in Canada has been successfully produced in this manner, starting in 1962. It is a typical retrograde type reservoir which in 1965 represented 15% of reservoirs exploited in North America.

  9. Diverging patterns of fertility decline in Uruguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathías Nathan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The total fertility rate (TFR in Uruguay fell from 2.5 to 1.9 children per woman between 1996 and 2011. However, no study to date has examined the decline of the TFR by observing changes in fertility patterns by birth order. Objective: The main aim of this study is to analyze recent changes in fertility level and timing of childbearing by birth order in Uruguay. Methods: We estimate unconditional and conditional age- and birth-order-specific fertility rates for 1996-2011 using data from vital statistics, population census, and national population estimates. Additionally, three period summary measures of birth-order-specific fertility quantum are calculated: TFR, PATFR and TFRp*. Timing changes by birth order are examined with MAB and TMAB, focusing on MAB1 and its standard deviation and comparing their evolutions in Uruguay with those of selected countries. Results: Fertility decline fits a parity-specific stopping model with a moderate increase in the mean ages of first, second, and third births. The distribution of conditional fertility rates for first and second births depicts an asymmetric bimodal shape linked to the increasing heterogeneity of the timing of childbearing. Compared to countries with similar fertility trends, heterogeneity in the age at first birth in Uruguay is remarkably high. Conclusions: Previous studies suggest that heterogeneity in first and second birth timing is related to structural social inequalities, as women from lower social strata have not significantly changed the age at which they bear a first child, whereas women of middle to high social strata have started to postpone it. The new evidence reinforces the idea that postponement transition in Uruguay cannot be studied without considering this consolidation of social status polarization in fertility timing.

  10. Modelling curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soloninko K.S.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors research the issue of functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand. Settlement of the problem, and its connection with important scientific and practical tasks. According to its nature, the market economy is unstable and is in constant movement. Economy has an effective instrument for explanation of changes in economic environment; this tool is called the modelling of economic processes. The modelling of economic processes depends first and foremost on the building of economic model which is the base for the formalization of economic process, that is, the building of mathematical model. The effective means for formalization of economic process is the creation of the model of hypothetic or imaginary economy. The building of demand model is significant for the market of goods and services. The problem includes the receiving (as the result of modelling definite functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand according to which one can determine their mathematical model. Another problem lies in obtaining majorant properties of curves of joint demand on the market of goods and services. Analysis of the latest researches and publications. Many domestic and foreign scientists dedicated their studies to the researches and building of the models of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand. In spite of considerable work of the scientists, such problems as functional properties of the curves and their practical use in modelling. The purpose of the article is to describe functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand on the market of goods and services on the base of modelling of their building. Scientific novelty and practical value. The theoretical regulations (for functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand received as a result of the present research, that is convexity, give extra practical possibilities in a microeconomic

  11. Rotation curve of our galaxy; how well do we know it

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pismis, P [Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City. Inst. de Astronomia

    1981-01-01

    Following an historical sketch of the relevant circumstances leading to the formulation of the rotation of the galaxy, the differential rotation formulae are recalled. The necessity of obtaining an overall rotation curve at the advent of radioastronomy is stressed; only through the knowledge of such a curve can the kinematic distances of H I profiles, H II regions and molecular clouds be obtained. The existence of the deviations from a smooth rotation curve are pointed out; in particular it is shown that the curve exhibits ''waves'', a phenomenon at present known to be rather common in spiral galaxies. Maxima and minima correspond to arm and interarm regions, respectively. The interpretation of these waves as population effects suggested earlier by this author is emphasized once again. Recent observations of H II regions and CO clouds suggest that the sun is located close to the minimum of a wave. Another irregularity, the presumed difference in the north and south rotation curves, is also briefly discussed. Based on a plausible assumption that the spiral structure can be represented by a pair of symmetrically located logarithmic spirals, it is shown that if waves do indeed exist - irrespective of the cause of such waves - the rotation curve in our galaxy and in others will be a function of direction from the galactic center. Unlike external galaxies, from the location of the sun we are not able to obtain the rotation velocity in all directions. An average rotation curve where the waves are smoothed out can be obtained from the mean over directions within a central angle of 180/sup 0/. However, from our eccentric position in the galaxy we can obtain information on the rotation law at best within a central angle of 120/sup 0/. Finally, it is emphazied that the rotation curve discussed usually is that of the fastest rotating system, the population I, which contains not more than 10% of the total mass of the galaxy. The rotation curve is, therefore, not unique.

  12. Reflected Light Curves of Extrasolar Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, D.; Matthews, J.; Kuschnig, R.; Seager, S.

    The planned launches of ultra-precise photometric satellites such as MOST, COROT and MONS should provide the first opportunity to study the reflected light curves from extrasolar planets. To predict the capabilities of these missions, we have constructed a series of models of such light curves, improving upon the Monte Carlo simulations by Seager et al. (2000). These models include more realistic features such limb darkening of the star and broad band photometry. For specific models, the resulting planet light curves exhibit unique behavior with the variation of radius, inclination and presence or absence of clouds.

  13. Neck curve polynomials in neck rupture model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurniadi, Rizal; Perkasa, Yudha S.; Waris, Abdul

    2012-01-01

    The Neck Rupture Model is a model that explains the scission process which has smallest radius in liquid drop at certain position. Old fashion of rupture position is determined randomly so that has been called as Random Neck Rupture Model (RNRM). The neck curve polynomials have been employed in the Neck Rupture Model for calculation the fission yield of neutron induced fission reaction of 280 X 90 with changing of order of polynomials as well as temperature. The neck curve polynomials approximation shows the important effects in shaping of fission yield curve.

  14. Morse theory on timelike and causal curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Everson, J.; Talbot, C.J.

    1976-01-01

    It is shown that the set of timelike curves in a globally hyperbolic space-time manifold can be given the structure of a Hilbert manifold under a suitable definition of 'timelike.' The causal curves are the topological closure of this manifold. The Lorentzian energy (corresponding to Milnor's energy, except that the Lorentzian inner product is used) is shown to be a Morse function for the space of causal curves. A fixed end point index theorem is obtained in which a lower bound for the index of the Hessian of the Lorentzian energy is given in terms of the sum of the orders of the conjugate points between the end points. (author)

  15. Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fleten, S.-E.; Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard

    2003-01-01

    We present and analyze a method for constructing approximated high-resolution forward price curves in electricity markets. Because a limited number of forward or futures contracts are traded in the market, only a limited picture of the theoretical continuous forward price curve is available...... to the analyst. Our method combines the information contained in observed bid and ask prices with information from the forecasts generated by bottom-up models. As an example, we use information concerning the shape of the seasonal variation from a bottom-up model to improve the forward price curve quoted...

  16. Curves of restricted type in euclidean spaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bengü Kılıç Bayram

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Submanifolds of restricted type were introduced in [7]. In the present study we consider restricted type of curves in Em. We give some special examples. We also show that spherical curve in S2(r C E3 is of restricted type if and only if either ƒ(s is constant or a linear function of s of the form ƒ(s = ±s + b and every closed W - curve of rank k and of length 2(r in E2k is of restricted type.

  17. Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleten, Stein-Erik; Lemming, Jacob

    2003-01-01

    We present and analyze a method for constructing approximated high-resolution forward price curves in electricity markets. Because a limited number of forward or futures contracts are traded in the market, only a limited picture of the theoretical continuous forward price curve is available to the analyst. Our method combines the information contained in observed bid and ask prices with information from the forecasts generated by bottom-up models. As an example, we use information concerning the shape of the seasonal variation from a bottom-up model to improve the forward price curve quoted on the Nordic power exchange

  18. Growth curves for twins in Slovenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bricelj, Katja; Blickstein, Isaac; Bržan-Šimenc, Gabrijela; Janša, Vid; Lučovnik, Miha; Verdenik, Ivan; Trojner-Bregar, Andreja; Tul, Nataša

    2017-02-01

    Abnormalities of fetal growth are more common in twins. We introduce the growth curves for monitoring fetal growth in twin pregnancies in Slovenia. Slovenian National Perinatal Information System for the period between 2002 and 2010 was used to calculate birth weight percentiles for all live born twins for each week from 22nd to 40th week. The calculated percentiles of birth weight for all live-born twins in Slovenia served as the basis for drawing 'growth' curves. The calculated growth curves for twins will help accurately diagnose small or large twin fetuses for their gestational age in the native central European population.

  19. Wind Turbine Power Curves Incorporating Turbulence Intensity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Emil Hedevang Lohse

    2014-01-01

    . The model and method are parsimonious in the sense that only a single function (the zero-turbulence power curve) and a single auxiliary parameter (the equivalent turbulence factor) are needed to predict the mean power at any desired turbulence intensity. The method requires only ten minute statistics......The performance of a wind turbine in terms of power production (the power curve) is important to the wind energy industry. The current IEC-61400-12-1 standard for power curve evaluation recognizes only the mean wind speed at hub height and the air density as relevant to the power production...

  20. Ecological consequences of forest elephant declines for Afrotropical forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulsen, John R; Rosin, Cooper; Meier, Amelia; Mills, Emily; Nuñez, Chase L; Koerner, Sally E; Blanchard, Emily; Callejas, Jennifer; Moore, Sarah; Sowers, Mark

    2017-10-27

    Poaching is rapidly extirpating African forest elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis) from most of their historical range, leaving vast areas of elephant-free tropical forest. Elephants are ecological engineers that create and maintain forest habitat; thus, their loss will have large consequences for the composition and structure of Afrotropical forests. Through a comprehensive literature review, we evaluated the roles of forest elephants in seed dispersal, nutrient recycling, and herbivory and physical damage to predict the cascading ecological effects of their population declines. Loss of seed dispersal by elephants will favor tree species dispersed abiotically and by smaller dispersal agents, and tree species composition will depend on the downstream effects of changes in elephant nutrient cycling and browsing. Loss of trampling and herbivory of seedlings and saplings will result in high tree density with release from browsing pressures. Diminished seed dispersal by elephants and high stem density are likely to reduce the recruitment of large trees and thus increase homogeneity of forest structure and decrease carbon stocks. The loss of ecological services by forest elephants likely means Central African forests will be more like Neotropical forests, from which megafauna were extirpated thousands of years ago. Without intervention, as much as 96% of Central African forests will have modified species composition and structure as elephants are compressed into remaining protected areas. Stopping elephant poaching is an urgent first step to mitigating these effects, but long-term conservation will require land-use planning that incorporates elephant habitat into forested landscapes that are being rapidly transformed by industrial agriculture and logging. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  1. Solar UV Variations During the Decline of Cycle 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLand, Matthew, T.; Cebula, Richard P.

    2011-01-01

    Characterization of temporal and spectral variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance over a solar cycle is essential for understanding the forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. Satellite measurements of solar UV variability for solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 show consistent solar cycle irradiance changes at key wavelengths (e.g. 205 nm, 250 nm) within instrumental uncertainties. All historical data sets also show the same relative spectral dependence for both short-term (rotational) and long-term (solar cycle) variations. Empirical solar irradiance models also produce long-term solar UV variations that agree well with observational data. Recent UV irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) and Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instruments covering the declining phase of Cycle 23 present a different picture oflong-term solar variations from previous results. Time series of SIM and SOLSTICE spectral irradiance data between 2003 and 2007 show solar variations that greatly exceed both previous measurements and predicted irradiance changes over this period, and the spectral dependence of the SIM and SOLSTICE variations during these years do not show features expected from solar physics theory. The use of SORCE irradiance variations in atmospheric models yields substantially different middle atmosphere ozone responses in both magnitude and vertical structure. However, short-term solar variability derived from SIM and SOLSTICE UV irradiance data is consistent with concurrent solar UV measurements from other instruments, as well as previous results, suggesting no change in solar physics. Our analysis of short-term solar variability is much less sensitive to residual instrument response changes than the observations of long-term variations. The SORCE long-term UV results can be explained by under-correction of instrument response changes during the first few years of measurements

  2. Systematic musicology meets historical musicology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.

    findings for Austro-German (linear increase, Adj. R2 = .489, F(1, 19) = 20.138, p analysis, we provide quantitative support for music-historical accounts of an Italian-dominated Baroque (composer birth years 1600...

  3. Historical and Documentary Data Sets

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Records of past climate and environment from historical references and documentary evidence such as church records, harvest dates, and diaries. Parameter keywords...

  4. 2nd Historic Mortars Conference

    CERN Document Server

    Hughes, John; Groot, Caspar; Historic Mortars : Characterisation, Assessment and Repair

    2012-01-01

    This volume focuses on research and practical issues connected with mortars on historic structures. The book is divided into four sections: Characterisation of Historic Mortars, Repair Mortars and Design Issues, Experimental Research into Properties of Repair Mortars, and Assessment and Testing. The papers present the latest work of researchers in their field. The individual contributions were selected from the contributions to the 2nd Historic Mortars Conference, which took place in Prague, September, 22-24, 2010. All papers were reviewed and improved as necessary before publication. This peer review process by the editors resulted in the 34 individual contributions included in here. One extra paper reviewing and summarising State-of-the-Art knowledge covered by this publication was added as a starting and navigational point for the reader. The editors believe that having these papers in print is important and they hope that it will stimulate further research into historic mortars and related subjects. 

  5. FEMA Historical Disaster Declarations - shp

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The Historical Disaster Declarations provides geospatial view to the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (referred to as the Stafford Act...

  6. A Composite Light Curve Model of the Symbiotic Nova PU Vul (1979

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kato M.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available PU Vul (1979 is a symbiotic nova that shows a long-lasting flat optical peak followed by a slow decline. We made a quasi-evolution model for outbursts on a 0.6 M⊙ white dwarf consisting of a series of static solutions with optically-thin winds. Our theoretical models reproduce well the observed visual/UV light curves as well as the new estimates of the temperature and radius of the hot component. We also modeled the light curve of the 1980 and 1994 eclipses as the total eclipse occulted by a pulsating M-giant companion star. In the second eclipse, the visual magnitude is dominated by nebular emission which is possibly ejected from the hot component between 1990 to 2000. We have quantitatively estimated three components of emission, i.e., the white dwarf, companion and nebular, and made a composite light curve that represents well the evolution of the PU Vul outburst.

  7. Technological change in energy systems. Learning curves, logistic curves and input-output coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan, Haoran; Koehler, Jonathan

    2007-01-01

    Learning curves have recently been widely adopted in climate-economy models to incorporate endogenous change of energy technologies, replacing the conventional assumption of an autonomous energy efficiency improvement. However, there has been little consideration of the credibility of the learning curve. The current trend that many important energy and climate change policy analyses rely on the learning curve means that it is of great importance to critically examine the basis for learning curves. Here, we analyse the use of learning curves in energy technology, usually implemented as a simple power function. We find that the learning curve cannot separate the effects of price and technological change, cannot reflect continuous and qualitative change of both conventional and emerging energy technologies, cannot help to determine the time paths of technological investment, and misses the central role of R and D activity in driving technological change. We argue that a logistic curve of improving performance modified to include R and D activity as a driving variable can better describe the cost reductions in energy technologies. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the top-down Leontief technology can incorporate the bottom-up technologies that improve along either the learning curve or the logistic curve, through changing input-output coefficients. An application to UK wind power illustrates that the logistic curve fits the observed data better and implies greater potential for cost reduction than the learning curve does. (author)

  8. Evaluating Amphibian Declines with Site Revisits and Occupancy Models: Status of Montane Anurans in the Pacific Northwest USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brome McCreary

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian declines have been reported in mountainous areas around the western USA. Few data quantify the extent of population losses in the Pacific Northwest, a region in which amphibian declines have received much attention. From 2001–2004, we resurveyed historical breeding sites of two species of conservation concern, the Western Toad (Bufo [=Anaxyrus] boreas and Cascades Frog (Rana cascadae. We detected B. boreas breeding at 75.9% and R. cascadae breeding at 66.6% of historical sites. When we analyzed the data using occupancy models that accounted for detection probability, we estimated the current use of historically occupied sites in our study area was 84.9% (SE = 4.9 for B. boreas and 72.4% (SE = 6.6 for R. cascadae. Our ability to detect B. boreas at sites where they were present was lower in the first year of surveys (a low snowpack year and higher at sites with introduced fish. Our ability to detect R. cascadae was lower at sites with fish. The probability that B. boreas still uses a historical site for breeding was related to the easting of the site (+ and the age of record (-. None of the variables we analyzed was strongly related to R. cascadae occupancy. Both species had increased odds of occupancy with higher latitude, but model support for this variable was modest. Our analysis suggests that while local losses are possible, these two amphibians have not experienced recent, broad population losses in the Oregon Cascades. Historical site revisitation studies such as ours cannot distinguish between population losses and site switching, and do not account for colonization of new habitats, so our analysis may overestimate declines in occupancy within our study area.

  9. Development of Future Rule Curves for Multipurpose Reservoir Operation Using Conditional Genetic and Tabu Search Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anongrit Kangrang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Optimal rule curves are necessary guidelines in the reservoir operation that have been used to assess performance of any reservoir to satisfy water supply, irrigation, industrial, hydropower, and environmental conservation requirements. This study applied the conditional genetic algorithm (CGA and the conditional tabu search algorithm (CTSA technique to connect with the reservoir simulation model in order to search optimal reservoir rule curves. The Ubolrat Reservoir located in the northeast region of Thailand was an illustrative application including historic monthly inflow, future inflow generated by the SWAT hydrological model using 50-year future climate data from the PRECIS regional climate model in case of B2 emission scenario by IPCC SRES, water demand, hydrologic data, and physical reservoir data. The future and synthetic inflow data of reservoirs were used to simulate reservoir system for evaluating water situation. The situations of water shortage and excess water were shown in terms of frequency magnitude and duration. The results have shown that the optimal rule curves from CGA and CTSA connected with the simulation model can mitigate drought and flood situations than the existing rule curves. The optimal future rule curves were more suitable for future situations than the other rule curves.

  10. Social History and Historical Sociology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Knöbl

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with exchanges and misunderstandings between the German school of social history (most prominently represented by scholars from the University of Bielefeld (such as Hans-Ulrich Wehler and Anglo-American trends in historical sociology (exemplified by the works of Barrington Moore, Theda Skocpol and Michael Mann. The social historians tended to dismiss historical sociology as too dependent on modernization theory, without taking into account the critique of that tradition by authors who brought processes of state formation and revolutionary change into the debate. On the other side, mainstream historical sociology worked with assumptions that limited its ability to change the terms and directions of sociological discourse, and to assimilate lessons from history. Among these inbuilt biases, organizational realism and materialism – particularly pronounced in the work of Michael Mann – stand out as particularly important. The paper closes with arguments in favour of bringing more history into historical sociology, with particular emphasis on three sets of problems. There is a need for more historical approaches to differentiation, less dependent on functionalist premises than the hitherto prevalent paradigm. A more explicit thematization of temporality in history and society would, among other things, help to clarify issues linked to the notion of path dependency. Finally, a reconsideration of the models and types of explanation in historical sociology would place more emphasis on their interpretive dimension.

  11. Social History and Historical Sociology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Knöbl

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with exchanges and misunderstandings between the German school of social history (most prominently represented by scholars from the University of Bielefeld (such as Hans-Ulrich Wehler and Anglo-American trends in historical sociology (exemplified by the works of Barrington Moore, Theda Skocpol and Michael Mann. The social historians tended to dismiss historical sociology as too dependent on modernization theory, without taking into account the critique of that tradition by authors who brought processes of state formation and revolutionary change into the debate. On the other side, mainstream historical sociology worked with assumptions that limited its ability to change the terms and directions of sociological discourse, and to assimilate lessons from history. Among these inbuilt biases, organizational realism and materialism - particularly pronounced in the work of Michael Mann - stand out as particularly important. The paper closes with arguments in favour of bringing more history into historical sociology, with particular emphasis on three sets of problems. There is a need for more historical approaches to differentiation, less dependent on functionalist premises than the hitherto prevalent paradigm. A more explicit thematization of temporality in history and society would, among other things, help to clarify issues linked to the notion of path dependency. Finally, a reconsideration of the models and types of explanation in historical sociology would place more emphasis on their interpretive dimension.

  12. A simple Lissajous curves experimental setup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Şahin Kızılcık, Hasan; Damlı, Volkan

    2018-05-01

    The aim of this study is to develop an experimental setup to produce Lissajous curves. The setup was made using a smartphone, a powered speaker (computer speaker), a balloon, a laser pointer and a piece of mirror. Lissajous curves are formed as follows: a piece of mirror is attached to a balloon. The balloon is vibrated with the sound signal provided by the speaker that is connected to a smartphone. The laser beam is reflected off the mirror and the reflection is shaped as a Lissajous curve. Because of the intersection of two frequencies (frequency of the sound signal and natural vibration frequency of the balloon), these curves are formed. They can be used to measure the ratio of frequencies.

  13. On ``minimally curved spacetimes'' in general relativity

    OpenAIRE

    Dadhich, Naresh

    1997-01-01

    We consider a spacetime corresponding to uniform relativistic potential analogus to Newtonian potential as an example of ``minimally curved spacetime''. We also consider a radially symmetric analogue of the Rindler spacetime of uniform proper acceleration relative to infinity.

  14. Utilization of curve offsets in additive manufacturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haseltalab, Vahid; Yaman, Ulas; Dolen, Melik

    2018-05-01

    Curve offsets are utilized in different fields of engineering and science. Additive manufacturing, which lately becomes an explicit requirement in manufacturing industry, utilizes curve offsets widely. One of the necessities of offsetting is for scaling which is required if there is shrinkage after the fabrication or if the surface quality of the resulting part is unacceptable. Therefore, some post-processing is indispensable. But the major application of curve offsets in additive manufacturing processes is for generating head trajectories. In a point-wise AM process, a correct tool-path in each layer can reduce lots of costs and increase the surface quality of the fabricated parts. In this study, different curve offset generation algorithms are analyzed to show their capabilities and disadvantages through some test cases and improvements on their drawbacks are suggested.

  15. Quaternion orders, quadratic forms, and Shimura curves

    CERN Document Server

    Alsina, Montserrat

    2004-01-01

    Shimura curves are a far-reaching generalization of the classical modular curves. They lie at the crossroads of many areas, including complex analysis, hyperbolic geometry, algebraic geometry, algebra, and arithmetic. The text provides an introduction to the subject from a theoretic and algorithmic perspective. The main topics covered in it are Shimura curves defined over the rational number field, the construction of their fundamental domains, and the determination of their complex multiplication points. The study of complex multiplication points in Shimura curves leads to the study of families of binary quadratic forms with algebraic coefficients and to their classification by arithmetic Fuchsian groups. In this regard, the authors develop a theory full of new possibilities which parallels Gauss' theory on the classification of binary quadratic forms with integral coefficients by the action of the modular group. Each topic covered in the book begins with a theoretical discussion followed by carefully worked...

  16. Uncovering the skewness news impact curve

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Anatolyev, Stanislav; Petukhov, A.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 4 (2016), s. 746-771 ISSN 1479-8409 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : conditional skewness * news impact curve * stock returns Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.800, year: 2016

  17. Classification of ASKAP Vast Radio Light Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebbapragada, Umaa; Lo, Kitty; Wagstaff, Kiri L.; Reed, Colorado; Murphy, Tara; Thompson, David R.

    2012-01-01

    The VAST survey is a wide-field survey that observes with unprecedented instrument sensitivity (0.5 mJy or lower) and repeat cadence (a goal of 5 seconds) that will enable novel scientific discoveries related to known and unknown classes of radio transients and variables. Given the unprecedented observing characteristics of VAST, it is important to estimate source classification performance, and determine best practices prior to the launch of ASKAP's BETA in 2012. The goal of this study is to identify light curve characterization and classification algorithms that are best suited for archival VAST light curve classification. We perform our experiments on light curve simulations of eight source types and achieve best case performance of approximately 90% accuracy. We note that classification performance is most influenced by light curve characterization rather than classifier algorithm.

  18. Automorphisms of double coverings of curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, F.

    1994-11-01

    We study automorphisms of curves that commute with each other. We prove that the order and the number of fixed points of one of them satisfy certain relations involving those of the other. Then, we specialize our results to the case of double coverings of curves. For instance, if the genus of the curve is at least 4γ + 2 and γ >= 1 (γ = the genus of the covered curve) we prove that the order of an automorphism is bounded above by 2γ + 1 (resp. 4γ + 2) provided it is prime (resp. it has at least five fixed points). We also improve Farkas' bound on the number of fixed points namely 4γ + 4 by showing that it involves the order of the automorphism except in the case of even order when such an improvement is obtained provided the automorphism and the γ-involution has at least one common fixed point. (author). 15 refs

  19. Uncovering the skewness news impact curve

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Anatolyev, Stanislav; Petukhov, A.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 4 (2016), s. 746-771 ISSN 1479-8409 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : conditional skewness * news impact curve * stock returns Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.800, year: 2016

  20. Transmission of wave energy in curved ducts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostafinski, W.

    1973-01-01

    A formation of wave energy flow was developed for motion in curved ducts. A parametric study over a range of frequencies determined the ability of circular bends to transmit energy for the case of perfectly rigid walls.

  1. Twisted Vector Bundles on Pointed Nodal Curves

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Motivated by the quest for a good compactification of the moduli space of -bundles on a nodal curve we establish a striking relationship between Abramovich's and Vistoli's twisted bundles and Gieseker vector bundles.

  2. Statistics from dynamics in curved spacetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parker, L.; Wang, Y.

    1989-01-01

    We consider quantum fields of spin 0, 1/2, 1, 3/2, and 2 with a nonzero mass in curved spacetime. We show that the dynamical Bogolubov transformations associated with gravitationally induced particle creation imply the connection between spin and statistics: By embedding two flat regions in a curved spacetime, we find that only when one imposes Bose-Einstein statistics for an integer-spin field and Fermi-Dirac statistics for a half-integer-spin field in the first flat region is the same type of statistics propagated from the first to the second flat region. This derivation of the flat-spacetime spin-statistics theorem makes use of curved-spacetime dynamics and does not reduce to any proof given in flat spacetime. We also show in the same manner that parastatistics, up to the fourth order, are consistent with the dynamical evolution of curved spacetime

  3. RMS fatigue curves for random vibrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenneman, B.; Talley, J.G.

    1984-01-01

    Fatigue usage factors for deterministic or constant amplitude vibration stresses may be calculated with well known procedures and fatigue curves given in the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code. However, some phenomena produce nondeterministic cyclic stresses which can only be described and analyzed with statistical concepts and methods. Such stresses may be caused by turbulent fluid flow over a structure. Previous methods for solving this statistical fatigue problem are often difficult to use and may yield inaccurate results. Two such methods examined herein are Crandall's method and the ''3sigma'' method. The objective of this paper is to provide a method for creating ''RMS fatigue curves'' which accurately incorporate the requisite statistical information. These curves are given and may be used by analysts with the same ease and in the same manner as the ASME fatigue curves

  4. Neutron cross sections: Book of curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLane, V.; Dunford, C.L.; Rose, P.F.

    1988-01-01

    Neuton Cross Sections: Book of Curves represents the fourth edition of what was previously known as BNL-325, Neutron Cross Sections, Volume 2, CURVES. Data is presented only for (i.e., intergrated) reaction cross sections (and related fission parameters) as a function of incident-neutron energy for the energy range 0.01 eV to 200 MeV. For the first time, isometric state production cross sections have been included. 11 refs., 4 figs

  5. Constructing elliptic curves from Galois representations

    OpenAIRE

    Snowden, Andrew; Tsimerman, Jacob

    2017-01-01

    Given a non-isotrivial elliptic curve over an arithmetic surface, one obtains a lisse $\\ell$-adic sheaf of rank two over the surface. This lisse sheaf has a number of straightforward properties: cyclotomic determinant, finite ramification, rational traces of Frobenius, and somewhere not potentially good reduction. We prove that any lisse sheaf of rank two possessing these properties comes from an elliptic curve.

  6. Curved twistor spaces and H-space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tod, K.P.

    1980-01-01

    The curved twistor space construction of Penrose for anti-self-dual solutions to the Einstein vacuum equations is described. Curved twistor spaces are defined and it is shown with the aid of an example how to obtain them by deforming the complex structure of regions of flat twistor space. The connection of this procedure with Newman's H-space construction via asymptotic twistor space is outlined. (Auth.)

  7. Potential Energy Curve of N2 Revisited

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Špirko, Vladimír; Xiangzhu, L.; Paldus, J.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 76, č. 4 (2011), s. 327-341 ISSN 0010-0765 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC512; GA ČR GAP208/11/0436 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40550506 Keywords : reduced multireference coupled-cluster method * reduced potential curve method * nitrogen molecule potential energy curves Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 1.283, year: 2011

  8. Curvature Entropy for Curved Profile Generation

    OpenAIRE

    Ujiie, Yoshiki; Kato, Takeo; Sato, Koichiro; Matsuoka, Yoshiyuki

    2012-01-01

    In a curved surface design, the overall shape features that emerge from combinations of shape elements are important. However, controlling the features of the overall shape in curved profiles is difficult using conventional microscopic shape information such as dimension. Herein two types of macroscopic shape information, curvature entropy and quadrature curvature entropy, quantitatively represent the features of the overall shape. The curvature entropy is calculated by the curvature distribu...

  9. Anomalies in curved spacetime at finite temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boschi-Filho, H.; Natividade, C.P.

    1993-01-01

    We discuss the problem of the breakdown of conformal and gauge symmetries at finite temperature in curved spacetime background, when the changes in the background are gradual. We obtain the expressions for the Seeley's coefficients and the heat kernel expansion in this regime. As applications, we consider the self-interacting lambda phi''4 and chiral Schwinger models in curved backgrounds at finite temperature. (Author) 9 refs

  10. Learning curves in health professions education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pusic, Martin V; Boutis, Kathy; Hatala, Rose; Cook, David A

    2015-08-01

    Learning curves, which graphically show the relationship between learning effort and achievement, are common in published education research but are not often used in day-to-day educational activities. The purpose of this article is to describe the generation and analysis of learning curves and their applicability to health professions education. The authors argue that the time is right for a closer look at using learning curves-given their desirable properties-to inform both self-directed instruction by individuals and education management by instructors.A typical learning curve is made up of a measure of learning (y-axis), a measure of effort (x-axis), and a mathematical linking function. At the individual level, learning curves make manifest a single person's progress towards competence including his/her rate of learning, the inflection point where learning becomes more effortful, and the remaining distance to mastery attainment. At the group level, overlaid learning curves show the full variation of a group of learners' paths through a given learning domain. Specifically, they make overt the difference between time-based and competency-based approaches to instruction. Additionally, instructors can use learning curve information to more accurately target educational resources to those who most require them.The learning curve approach requires a fine-grained collection of data that will not be possible in all educational settings; however, the increased use of an assessment paradigm that explicitly includes effort and its link to individual achievement could result in increased learner engagement and more effective instructional design.

  11. Environmental bias and elastic curves on surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guven, Jemal; María Valencia, Dulce; Vázquez-Montejo, Pablo

    2014-01-01

    The behavior of an elastic curve bound to a surface will reflect the geometry of its environment. This may occur in an obvious way: the curve may deform freely along directions tangent to the surface, but not along the surface normal. However, even if the energy itself is symmetric in the curve's geodesic and normal curvatures, which control these modes, very distinct roles are played by the two. If the elastic curve binds preferentially on one side, or is itself assembled on the surface, not only would one expect the bending moduli associated with the two modes to differ, binding along specific directions, reflected in spontaneous values of these curvatures, may be favored. The shape equations describing the equilibrium states of a surface curve described by an elastic energy accommodating environmental factors will be identified by adapting the method of Lagrange multipliers to the Darboux frame associated with the curve. The forces transmitted to the surface along the surface normal will be determined. Features associated with a number of different energies, both of physical relevance and of mathematical interest, are described. The conservation laws associated with trajectories on surface geometries exhibiting continuous symmetries are also examined. (paper)

  12. Geometric invariant theory for polarized curves

    CERN Document Server

    Bini, Gilberto; Melo, Margarida; Viviani, Filippo

    2014-01-01

    We investigate GIT quotients of polarized curves. More specifically, we study the GIT problem for the Hilbert and Chow schemes of curves of degree d and genus g in a projective space of dimension d-g, as d decreases with respect to g. We prove that the first three values of d at which the GIT quotients change are given by d=a(2g-2) where a=2, 3.5, 4. We show that, for a>4, L. Caporaso's results hold true for both Hilbert and Chow semistability. If 3.5curves. If 2curves. We also analyze in detail the critical values a=3.5 and a=4, where the Hilbert semistable locus is strictly smaller than the Chow semistable locus. As an application, we obtain three compactications of the universal Jacobian over the moduli space of stable curves, weakly-pseudo-stable curves and pseu...

  13. The growth and decline of cryonics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Sanders Stodolsky

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Cryogenic storage has become known as an alternative to burial. While a substantial fraction of the public finds cryonics acceptable, enrollment remains miniscule. One of the greatest unknowns is whether cryonics companies will be able to operate continuously until reanimation of those in storage becomes possible. Two failure modes are considered; organizational decline and political attack. The cryonics industry has adopted a strategy that implicitly targets atheist millionaires and alienates women. This is a result of neglecting science in its marketing efforts. American cryonics organizations have also incurred an avoidable political risk by refusing to use the funeral industry as a sales channel. Two alternative strategies are suggested that could minimize failure risk by reversing the stagnation of the industry. A “repackaging” of cryonics could accelerate growth and improve services, as well as the political position of the industry. This repackaging includes a restructuring of the channels for funding cryonics. Integration with the mainstream assumes using the funeral industry as a sales channel. While both political experiences and research results have made the need for these developments apparent, pioneers of the industry have resisted them.

  14. Population Genetic Aspects of Pollinator Decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurence Packer

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available We reviewed the theory of conservation genetics, with special emphasis on the influence of haplodiploidy and other aspects of bee biology upon conservation genetic parameters. We then investigated the possibility that pollinator decline can be addressed in this way, using two meta-analytical approaches on genetic data from the Hymenoptera and the Lepidoptera. First, we compared levels of heterozygosity between the orders. As has been found previously, the haplodiploid Hymenoptera had markedly lower levels of genetic variation than the Lepidoptera. Bees had even lower levels, and bumble bees, in particular, often seemed almost monomorphic genetically. However, the statistically confounding effects of phylogeny render detailed interpretation of such data difficult. Second, we investigated patterns of gene flow among populations of these insects. Hymenoptera were far more likely to show genetic effects of population fragmentation than are Lepidoptera, even at similar geographic distances between populations. The reduced effective population sizes resulting from haplodiploidy probably contributed to this result. The proportion of species with low levels of gene flow did not vary among the different taxonomic groups within the Hymenoptera.

  15. Development and decline of upright gait stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco eIosa

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Upright gait is a peculiar characteristic of humans that requires the ability to manage upper body dynamic balance while walking, despite the perturbations that are generated by movements of the lower limbs. Most of the studies on upright gait stability have compared young adults and the elderly to determine the effects of aging. In other studies the comparison was between healthy subjects and patients to examine specific pathologies. Fewer researches have also investigated the development of upright gait stability in children.This review discusses these studies in order to provide an overview of this relevant aspect of human locomotion. A clear trend from development to decline of upright gait stability has been depicted across the entire lifespan, from toddlers at first steps to elderly. In old individuals, even if healthy, the deterioration of skeletal muscle, combined with sensorial and cognitive performance, reduces the ability to maintain an upright trunk during walking, increasing the instability and the risk of falls. Further, the pathological causes of altered development or of a sudden loss of gait stability, as well as the environmental influence are investigated. The last part of this review is focused on the control of upper body accelerations during walking, a particularly interesting topic for the recent development of low-cost wearable accelerometers.

  16. Neotropical Amphibian Declines Affect Stream Ecosystem Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connelly, S.; Pringle, C. M.; Bixby, R. J.; Whiles, M. R.; Lips, K. R.; Brenes, R.; Colon-Gaud, J. C.; Kilham, S.; Hunte-Brown, M.

    2005-05-01

    Global declines of amphibians are well documented, yet effects of these dramatic losses on ecosystem structure and function are poorly understood. As part of a larger collaborative project, we compared two upland Panamanian streams. Both streams are biologically and geologically similar; however, one stream (Fortuna) has recently experienced almost complete extirpation of stream-dwelling frogs, while the other (Cope) still has intact populations. We experimentally excluded tadpoles from localized areas in each stream. We then compared chlorophyll a, algal community composition, ash-free dry mass (AFDM), inorganic matter, and insect assemblages in control and exclusion areas. Additionally, we sampled the natural substrate of both streams monthly for chlorophyll a, algal community composition, AFDM, and inorganic matter. At Cope, chlorophyll a, AFDM, and inorganic matter were greater in areas where tadpoles were excluded than in their presence. Numbers of dominant algal species (e.g., Nupela praecipua and Eunotia siolii) were greater in the exclusion versus control treatments. Monthly sampling of natural substrate indicated higher chlorophyll a and AFDM at Cope compared to Fortuna. Our data suggest that stream-dwelling anuran larvae have significant impacts on algal communities. These results also have implications for predicting the relevance of short-term experimental manipulations to long-term, whole-stream processes.

  17. Egg production in a coastal seabird, the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens, declines during the last century.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise K Blight

    Full Text Available Seabirds integrate information about oceanic ecosystems across time and space, and are considered sensitive indicators of marine conditions. To assess whether hypothesized long-term foodweb changes such as forage fish declines may be reflected in a consumer's life history traits over time, I used meta-regression to evaluate multi-decadal changes in aspects of egg production in the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens, a common coastal bird. Study data were derived from literature searches of published papers and unpublished historical accounts, museum egg collections, and modern field studies, with inclusion criteria based on data quality and geographic area of the original study. Combined historical and modern data showed that gull egg size declined at an average of 0.04 cc y(-1 from 1902 (108 y, equivalent to a decline of 5% of mean egg volume, while clutch size decreased over 48 y from a mean of 2.82 eggs per clutch in 1962 to 2.25 in 2009. There was a negative relationship between lay date and mean clutch size in a given year, with smaller clutches occurring in years where egg laying commenced later. Lay date itself advanced over time, with commencement of laying presently (2008-2010 7 d later than in previous studies (1959-1986. This study demonstrates that glaucous-winged gull investment in egg production has declined significantly over the past ∼50-100 y, with such changes potentially contributing to recent population declines. Though gulls are generalist feeders that should readily be able to buffer themselves against food web changes, they are likely nutritionally constrained during the early breeding period, when egg production requirements are ideally met by consumption of high-quality prey such as forage fish. This study's results suggest a possible decline in the availability of such prey, and the incremental long-term impoverishment of a coastal marine ecosystem bordering one of North America's rapidly growing urban areas.

  18. Egg Production in a Coastal Seabird, the Glaucous-Winged Gull (Larus glaucescens), Declines during the Last Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blight, Louise K.

    2011-01-01

    Seabirds integrate information about oceanic ecosystems across time and space, and are considered sensitive indicators of marine conditions. To assess whether hypothesized long-term foodweb changes such as forage fish declines may be reflected in a consumer's life history traits over time, I used meta-regression to evaluate multi-decadal changes in aspects of egg production in the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens), a common coastal bird. Study data were derived from literature searches of published papers and unpublished historical accounts, museum egg collections, and modern field studies, with inclusion criteria based on data quality and geographic area of the original study. Combined historical and modern data showed that gull egg size declined at an average of 0.04 cc y−1 from 1902 (108 y), equivalent to a decline of 5% of mean egg volume, while clutch size decreased over 48 y from a mean of 2.82 eggs per clutch in 1962 to 2.25 in 2009. There was a negative relationship between lay date and mean clutch size in a given year, with smaller clutches occurring in years where egg laying commenced later. Lay date itself advanced over time, with commencement of laying presently (2008–2010) 7 d later than in previous studies (1959–1986). This study demonstrates that glaucous-winged gull investment in egg production has declined significantly over the past ∼50–100 y, with such changes potentially contributing to recent population declines. Though gulls are generalist feeders that should readily be able to buffer themselves against food web changes, they are likely nutritionally constrained during the early breeding period, when egg production requirements are ideally met by consumption of high-quality prey such as forage fish. This study's results suggest a possible decline in the availability of such prey, and the incremental long-term impoverishment of a coastal marine ecosystem bordering one of North America's rapidly growing urban areas. PMID

  19. The S-curve for forecasting waste generation in construction projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Weisheng; Peng, Yi; Chen, Xi; Skitmore, Martin; Zhang, Xiaoling

    2016-10-01

    Forecasting construction waste generation is the yardstick of any effort by policy-makers, researchers, practitioners and the like to manage construction and demolition (C&D) waste. This paper develops and tests an S-curve model to indicate accumulative waste generation as a project progresses. Using 37,148 disposal records generated from 138 building projects in Hong Kong in four consecutive years from January 2011 to June 2015, a wide range of potential S-curve models are examined, and as a result, the formula that best fits the historical data set is found. The S-curve model is then further linked to project characteristics using artificial neural networks (ANNs) so that it can be used to forecast waste generation in future construction projects. It was found that, among the S-curve models, cumulative logistic distribution is the best formula to fit the historical data. Meanwhile, contract sum, location, public-private nature, and duration can be used to forecast construction waste generation. The study provides contractors with not only an S-curve model to forecast overall waste generation before a project commences, but also with a detailed baseline to benchmark and manage waste during the course of construction. The major contribution of this paper is to the body of knowledge in the field of construction waste generation forecasting. By examining it with an S-curve model, the study elevates construction waste management to a level equivalent to project cost management where the model has already been readily accepted as a standard tool. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Executive Summary - Historical background

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    matter physics experiments at the High Flux Reactor of The Laue Langevin Institute and the ISIS spallation source at Rutherford-Appleton. Recently, we very actively entered the ICARUS neutrino collaboration and were invited to the PIERRE AUGER collaboration which will search for the highest energies in the Universe. Having close ties with CERN we are very actively engaged in CROSS-GRID, a large computer network project. To better understand the historical background of the INP development, it is necessary to add a few comments on financing of science in Poland. During the 70's and the 80's, research was financed through the so-called Central Research Projects for Science and Technical Development. The advantage of this system was that state-allocated research funds were divided only by a few representatives of the scientific community, which allowed realistic allocation of money to a small number of projects. After 1989 we were able to purchase commercially available equipment, which led to the closure of our large and very experienced electronic workshop. We also considerably reduced our well equipped mechanical shop. During the 90's the reduced state financing of science was accompanied by a newly established Committee of Scientific Research which led to the creation of a system of small research projects. This precluded the development of more ambitious research projects and led to the dispersion of equipment among many smaller laboratories and universities. A large research establishment, such as our Institute, could not develop properly under such conditions. In all, between 1989 and 2004 we reduced our personnel from about 800 to 470 and our infrastructure became seriously undercapitalised. However, with energetic search for research funds, from European rather than national research programs, we hope to improve and modernize our laboratories and their infrastructure in the coming years

  1. Stenting for curved lesions using a novel curved balloon: Preliminary experimental study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomita, Hideshi; Higaki, Takashi; Kobayashi, Toshiki; Fujii, Takanari; Fujimoto, Kazuto

    2015-08-01

    Stenting may be a compelling approach to dilating curved lesions in congenital heart diseases. However, balloon-expandable stents, which are commonly used for congenital heart diseases, are usually deployed in a straight orientation. In this study, we evaluated the effect of stenting with a novel curved balloon considered to provide better conformability to the curved-angled lesion. In vitro experiments: A Palmaz Genesis(®) stent (Johnson & Johnson, Cordis Co, Bridgewater, NJ, USA) mounted on the Goku(®) curve (Tokai Medical Co. Nagoya, Japan) was dilated in vitro to observe directly the behavior of the stent and balloon assembly during expansion. Animal experiment: A short Express(®) Vascular SD (Boston Scientific Co, Marlborough, MA, USA) stent and a long Express(®) Vascular LD stent (Boston Scientific) mounted on the curved balloon were deployed in the curved vessel of a pig to observe the effect of stenting in vivo. In vitro experiments: Although the stent was dilated in a curved fashion, stent and balloon assembly also rotated conjointly during expansion of its curved portion. In the primary stenting of the short stent, the stent was dilated with rotation of the curved portion. The excised stent conformed to the curved vessel. As the long stent could not be negotiated across the mid-portion with the balloon in expansion when it started curving, the mid-portion of the stent failed to expand fully. Furthermore, the balloon, which became entangled with the stent strut, could not be retrieved even after complete deflation. This novel curved balloon catheter might be used for implantation of the short stent in a curved lesion; however, it should not be used for primary stenting of the long stent. Post-dilation to conform the stent to the angled vessel would be safer than primary stenting irrespective of stent length. Copyright © 2014 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. THE IMPORTANCE OF {sup 56}Ni IN SHAPING THE LIGHT CURVES OF TYPE II SUPERNOVAE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakar, Ehud; Poznanski, Dovi [The Raymond and Beverly Sackler School of Physics and Astronomy, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978 (Israel); Katz, Boaz [Department of Particle Physics and Astrophysics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot 76100 (Israel)

    2016-06-01

    What intrinsic properties shape the light curves of SNe II? To address this question we derive observational measures that are robust (i.e., insensitive to detailed radiative transfer) and constrain the contribution from {sup 56}Ni as well as a combination of the envelope mass, progenitor radius, and explosion energy. By applying our methods to a sample of SNe II from the literature, we find that a {sup 56}Ni contribution is often significant. In our sample, its contribution to the time-weighted integrated luminosity during the photospheric phase ranges between 8% and 72% with a typical value of 30%. We find that the {sup 56}Ni relative contribution is anti-correlated with the luminosity decline rate. When added to other clues, this in turn suggests that the flat plateaus often observed in SNe II are not a generic feature of the cooling envelope emission, and that without {sup 56}Ni many of the SNe that are classified as II-P would have shown a decline rate that is steeper by up to 1 mag/100 days. Nevertheless, we find that the cooling envelope emission, and not {sup 56}Ni contribution, is the main driver behind the observed range of decline rates. Furthermore, contrary to previous suggestions, our findings indicate that fast decline rates are not driven by lower envelope masses. We therefore suggest that the difference in observed decline rates is mainly a result of different density profiles of the progenitors.

  3. Thinner cortex in patients with subjective cognitive decline is associated with steeper decline of memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaillie, Sander C J; Slot, Rosalinde E; Tijms, Betty M; Bouwman, Femke; Benedictus, Marije R; Overbeek, Jozefien M; Koene, Teddy; Vrenken, Hugo; Scheltens, Philip; Barkhof, Frederik; van der Flier, Wiesje M

    2018-01-01

    We aimed to investigate associations between regional cortical thickness and rate of decline over time in 4 cognitive domains in patients with subjective cognitive decline (SCD). We included 233 SCD patients with the total number of 654 neuropsychological assessments (median = 3, range = 2-8) and available baseline magnetic resonance imaging from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort (125 males, age: 63 ± 9, Mini-Mental State Examination score: 28 ± 2). We assessed longitudinal cognitive functioning at baseline and follow-up in 4 cognitive domains (composite Z-scores): memory, attention, executive function, and language. Thickness (millimeter) was estimated using FreeSurfer for frontal, temporal, parietal, cingulate, and occipital cortices. We used linear mixed models to estimate effects of cortical thickness on cognitive performance (dependent variables). There were no associations between cortical thickness and baseline cognition, but a faster subsequent rate of memory loss was associated with thinner cortex of the frontal [β (SE) = 0.20 (0.07)], temporal [β (SE) = 0.18 (0.07)], and occipital [β (SE) = 0.22 (0.09)] cortices (all p cognitive decline related to neurodegenerative diseases, most prominently Alzheimer's disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Cognitive declines precede and predict functional declines in aging and Alzheimer's disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura B Zahodne

    Full Text Available To investigate the temporal ordering of cognitive and functional declines separately in older adults with or without Alzheimer's disease (AD.A community-based longitudinal study of aging and dementia in Northern Manhattan (Washington Heights/Hamilton Heights Inwood Columbia Aging Project and a multicenter, clinic-based longitudinal study of prevalent AD at Columbia University Medical Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, and the Hôpital de la Salpêtrière in Paris, France (the Predictors Study.3,443 initially non-demented older adults (612 with eventual incident dementia and 517 patients with AD.Cognitive measures included the modified Mini-Mental State Exam and composite scores of memory and language derived from a standardized neuropsychological battery. Function was measured with the Blessed Dementia Rating Scale, completed by the participant (in the sample of non-demented older adults or an informant (in the sample of prevalent AD patients. Data were analyzed with autoregressive cross-lagged panel analysis.Cognitive scores more consistently predicted subsequent functional abilities than vice versa in non-demented older adults, participants with eventual incident dementia, and patients with prevalent AD.Cognitive declines appear to precede and cause functional declines prior to and following dementia diagnosis. Standardized neuropsychological tests are valid predictors of later functional changes in both non-demented and demented older adults.

  5. The Nordic Prudent Diet Reduces Risk of Cognitive Decline in the Swedish Older Adults: A Population-Based Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behnaz Shakersain

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Appropriate dietary pattern for preserving cognitive function in northern Europe remains unknown. We aimed to identify a Nordic dietary pattern index associated with slower cognitive decline compared to the Mediterranean-DASH Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay, Mediterranean Diet, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, and Baltic Sea Diet indices. A total of 2223 dementia-free adults aged ≥60 were followed for 6 years. Mini-Mental State Examination was administrated at baseline and follow-ups. Dietary intake was assessed by 98-item food frequency questionnaire, and the Nordic Prudent Dietary Pattern (NPDP was identified. Data were analysed using mixed-effects and parametric survival models and receiver operating characteristic curves with adjustment for potential confounders. Moderate (β = 0.139, 95% CI 0.077−0.201 and high adherence (β = 0.238, 95% CI 0.175−0.300 to NPDP were associated with less cognitive decline compared to other four indices. High adherence to NPDP was also associated with the lowest risk of MMSE decline to ≤24 (HR = 0.176, 95% CI 0.080−0.386 and had the greatest ability to predict such decline (area under the curve = 0.70. Moderate-to-high adherence to the NPDP may predict a better-preserved cognitive function among older adults in Nordic countries. Regional dietary habits should be considered in developing dietary guidelines for the prevention of cognitive impairment and dementia.

  6. The Nordic Prudent Diet Reduces Risk of Cognitive Decline in the Swedish Older Adults: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakersain, Behnaz; Rizzuto, Debora; Larsson, Susanna C; Faxén-Irving, Gerd; Fratiglioni, Laura; Xu, Wei-Li

    2018-02-17

    Appropriate dietary pattern for preserving cognitive function in northern Europe remains unknown. We aimed to identify a Nordic dietary pattern index associated with slower cognitive decline compared to the Mediterranean-DASH Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay, Mediterranean Diet, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, and Baltic Sea Diet indices. A total of 2223 dementia-free adults aged ≥60 were followed for 6 years. Mini-Mental State Examination was administrated at baseline and follow-ups. Dietary intake was assessed by 98-item food frequency questionnaire, and the Nordic Prudent Dietary Pattern (NPDP) was identified. Data were analysed using mixed-effects and parametric survival models and receiver operating characteristic curves with adjustment for potential confounders. Moderate (β = 0.139, 95% CI 0.077-0.201) and high adherence (β = 0.238, 95% CI 0.175-0.300) to NPDP were associated with less cognitive decline compared to other four indices. High adherence to NPDP was also associated with the lowest risk of MMSE decline to ≤24 (HR = 0.176, 95% CI 0.080-0.386) and had the greatest ability to predict such decline (area under the curve = 0.70). Moderate-to-high adherence to the NPDP may predict a better-preserved cognitive function among older adults in Nordic countries. Regional dietary habits should be considered in developing dietary guidelines for the prevention of cognitive impairment and dementia.

  7. Development of the curve of Spee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Steven D; Caspersen, Matthew; Hardinger, Rachel R; Franciscus, Robert G; Aquilino, Steven A; Southard, Thomas E

    2008-09-01

    Ferdinand Graf von Spee is credited with characterizing human occlusal curvature viewed in the sagittal plane. This naturally occurring phenomenon has clinical importance in orthodontics and restorative dentistry, yet we have little understanding of when, how, or why it develops. The purpose of this study was to expand our understanding by examining the development of the curve of Spee longitudinally in a sample of untreated subjects with normal occlusion from the deciduous dentition to adulthood. Records of 16 male and 17 female subjects from the Iowa Facial Growth Study were selected and examined. The depth of the curve of Spee was measured on their study models at 7 time points from ages 4 (deciduous dentition) to 26 (adult dentition) years. The Wilcoxon signed rank test was used to compare changes in the curve of Spee depth between time points. For each subject, the relative eruption of the mandibular teeth was measured from corresponding cephalometric radiographs, and its contribution to the developing curve of Spee was ascertained. In the deciduous dentition, the curve of Spee is minimal. At mean ages of 4.05 and 5.27 years, the average curve of Spee depths are 0.24 and 0.25 mm, respectively. With change to the transitional dentition, corresponding to the eruption of the mandibular permanent first molars and central incisors (mean age, 6.91 years), the curve of Spee depth increases significantly (P < 0.0001) to a mean maximum depth of 1.32 mm. The curve of Spee then remains essentially unchanged until eruption of the second molars (mean age, 12.38 years), when the depth increases (P < 0.0001) to a mean maximum depth of 2.17 mm. In the adolescent dentition (mean age, 16.21 years), the depth decreases slightly (P = 0.0009) to a mean maximum depth of 1.98 mm, and, in the adult dentition (mean age 26.98 years), the curve remains unchanged (P = 0.66), with a mean maximum depth of 2.02 mm. No significant differences in curve of Spee development were found between

  8. Subjective cognitive decline and fall risk in community-dwelling older adults with or without objective cognitive decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirooka, Hidehiko; Nishiguchi, Shu; Fukutani, Naoto; Tashiro, Yuto; Nozaki, Yuma; Aoyama, Tomoki

    2018-05-01

    The association between subjective cognitive decline and falls has not been clearly determined. Our aim was to explore the effect of subjective cognitive decline on falls in community-dwelling older adults with or without objective cognitive decline. We included 470 older adults (mean age 73.6 ± 5.2; 329 women) living in the community and obtained data on fall history directly from the participants. Subjective cognitive decline was assessed using a self-administered question. Objective cognitive function was measured using the Mini-Mental State Examination. Statistical analyses were carried out separately for participants with objective cognitive decline and those without. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed that, among participants without objective cognitive decline, subjective cognitive decline was positively associated with falls [OR 1.91; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-3.12; p = 0.01). Conversely, among participants with objective cognitive decline, subjective cognitive decline was negatively associated with falls (OR 0.07; 95% CI 0.01-0.85, p = 0.04). The result suggests that the objective-subjective disparity may affect falls in community-dwelling older adults. The presence of subjective cognitive decline was significantly positively associated with falls among cognitively intact older adults. However, among their cognitively impaired peers, the absence of subjective cognitive decline was positively associated with falls.

  9. Historical earthquake research in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammerl, Christa

    2017-12-01

    Austria has a moderate seismicity, and on average the population feels 40 earthquakes per year or approximately three earthquakes per month. A severe earthquake with light building damage is expected roughly every 2 to 3 years in Austria. Severe damage to buildings ( I 0 > 8° EMS) occurs significantly less frequently, the average period of recurrence is about 75 years. For this reason the historical earthquake research has been of special importance in Austria. The interest in historical earthquakes in the past in the Austro-Hungarian Empire is outlined, beginning with an initiative of the Austrian Academy of Sciences and the development of historical earthquake research as an independent research field after the 1978 "Zwentendorf plebiscite" on whether the nuclear power plant will start up. The applied methods are introduced briefly along with the most important studies and last but not least as an example of a recently carried out case study, one of the strongest past earthquakes in Austria, the earthquake of 17 July 1670, is presented. The research into historical earthquakes in Austria concentrates on seismic events of the pre-instrumental period. The investigations are not only of historical interest, but also contribute to the completeness and correctness of the Austrian earthquake catalogue, which is the basis for seismic hazard analysis and as such benefits the public, communities, civil engineers, architects, civil protection, and many others.

  10. Prognostic significance of an early decline in serum alpha-fetoprotein during chemotherapy for ovarian yolk sac tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Motte Rouge, Thibault; Pautier, Patricia; Genestie, Catherine; Rey, Annie; Gouy, Sébastien; Leary, Alexandra; Haie-Meder, Christine; Kerbrat, Pierre; Culine, Stéphane; Fizazi, Karim; Lhommé, Catherine

    2016-09-01

    The ovarian yolk sac tumor (OYST) is a very rare malignancy arising in young women. Our objective was to determine whether an early decline in serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) during chemotherapy has a prognostic impact. This retrospective study is based on prospectively recorded OYST cases at Gustave Roussy (Cancer Treatment Center). Survival curves were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The serum AFP decline was calculated with the formula previously developed and validated in male patients with poor prognosis non-seminomatous germ cell tumors. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the log-rank test and logistic regression, respectively. Data on AFP were available to calculate an early AFP decline in 57 patients. All patients had undergone surgery followed by chemotherapy. The 5-year overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) rates were 86% (95% CI: 74%-93%) and 84% (95% CI: 73%-91%), respectively. The disease stage, presence of ascites at presentation, use of the BEP regimen, serum AFP half-life and an early AFP decline were significantly predictive factors for OS and EFS in the univariate analysis. The OS rate was 100% and 49% (95% CI: 26%-72%) in patients with a favorable AFP decline and in those with an unfavorable decline, respectively (p<0.001). In the multivariate analysis, only the presence of ascites at diagnosis (RR=7.3, p=0.03) and an unfavorable early AFP decline (RR=16.9, p<0.01) were significant negative predictive factors for OS. An early AFP decline during chemotherapy is an independent prognostic factor in patients with OYSTs. No conflict of interest. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  11. Estimates of connectivity reveal non-equilibrium epiphyte occurrence patterns almost 180 years after habitat decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Victor; Snäll, Tord; Ranius, Thomas

    2013-06-01

    Habitat loss is a major cause of species decline and extinction. Immediately after habitat loss, species occurrences are not in equilibrium with the new landscape and more closely reflect the previous landscape structure. Species with slow colonisation-extinction dynamics may display long time-lags before reaching a new equilibrium. We investigated the importance of connectivity to current and historical dispersal sources with the aim of explaining the occurrence pattern of epiphytic lichens with different traits among 104 old oaks. We used oak survey data collected from 1830 and 2009 for a Swedish landscape where oak densities declined drastically shortly after 1830. We fitted a commonly used connectivity measure and estimated the confidence interval for the spatial scale parameter. Small differences in the spatial scale parameter resulted in large differences in model fit. Connectivity to trees in 1830 better explained the occurrence of three of the four species compared to the connectivity in 2009. The explanatory power of the historical landscape structure was highest for the species with traits that may result in a low colonisation rate--both a narrow niche (here few suitable trees) and large dispersal propagules. The results suggest that oak-dependent epiphytic lichens have not reached equilibrium with the spatial landscape structure 180 years after the drastic decline in habitat. For the long-term persistence of epiphytes associated with old trees, conservation efforts should focus on (1) protecting and restoring stands where specialised species with large dispersal propagules (i.e. with low colonisation rates) occur today and (2) promoting tree regeneration in their near vicinity.

  12. Impacts of Declining Mississippi River Sediment Load on Subaqueous Delta Front Sedimentation and Geomorphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloney, J. M.; Bentley, S. J.; Xu, K.; Georgiou, I. Y.; Miner, M. D.

    2016-02-01

    The Mississippi River delta system is undergoing unprecedented changes due to the effects of climate change and anthropogenic alterations to the river and its delta. Since the 1950s, the suspended sediment load of the Mississippi River has decreased by approximately 50% due to the construction of >50,000 dams in the Mississippi basin. The impact of this decreased sediment load has been observed in subaerial environments, but the impact on sedimentation and geomorphology of the subaqueous delta front has yet to be examined. To identify historic trends in sedimentation patterns, we compiled bathymetric datasets, including historical charts, industry and academic surveys, and NOAA data, collected between 1764 and 2009. Sedimentation rates are variable across the delta front, but are highest near the mouth of Southwest Pass, which carries the largest percentage of Mississippi River flow and sediment into the Gulf of Mexico. The progradation rate of Southwest Pass (measured at the 10 m depth contour) has slowed from 67 m/yr between 1764 and 1940 to 26 m/yr between 1940 and 1979, with evidence of further deceleration from 1979-2009. Decreased rates of progradation are also observed at South Pass and Pass A Loutre, with the 10 m contour retreating at rates >20 m/yr at both passes. Advancement of the delta front also decelerated in deeper water (15-90 m) offshore from Southwest Pass. In this area, from 1940-1979, depth contours advanced seaward 30 m/yr, but rates declined from 1979-2005. Furthermore, over the same area, the sediment accumulation rate decreased by 81% for the same period. The Mississippi River delta front appears to be entering a phase of decline, which will likely be accelerated by future upstream management practices. This decline has implications for offshore ecosystems, biogeochemical cycling, pollutant dispersal, mudflow hazard, and the continued use of the delta as an economic and population center.

  13. Decline of shortjaw cisco in Lake Superior: the role of overfishing and risk of extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bronte, Charles R.; Hoff, Michael H.; Gorman, Owen T.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Schneeberger, Philip J.; Todd, Thomas N.

    2010-01-01

    Recent reviews have further documented the decline of the shortjaw cisco Coregonus zenithicus in Lake Superior. This fish was the most abundant deepwater cisco species in Lake Superior in the early 1920s but presently makes up less than 1% of all deepwater ciscoes (i.e., including shortjaw cisco, bloater C. hoyi, and kiyi C. kiyi) captured in biological surveys. Directed overfishing of deepwater cisco species during the 1930s and again during the mid-1960s and 1970s has been suggested as the cause of the shortjaw cisco's demise. In this paper, we re-examined the overfishing hypothesis by using historical and recent survey data to estimate the proportion of the historical commercial fishery landings that comprised shortjaw ciscoes. We developed time series of estimated harvest and relative abundance for all statistical districts in Michigan waters of Lake Superior during 1929–1996, for which aggregate catch and effort data were available but not previously examined. The spatial distribution of the fishery and the relationships of catch to fishing effort were examined for evidence of overfishing. Our analysis suggested that directed overfishing was probably not the cause of shortjaw cisco demise, as this species appeared to be declining in all statistical districts regardless of the intensity of the fishery. A count-based population viability analysis indicated that quasi-extinction of the shortjaw cisco is highly probable in the near future. We propose an alternative hypothesis based on the decline of Lake Superior's keystone predator, the lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, which resulted in an expansion of the population of its principal prey, the cisco C. artedi, due to release from predation pressure. Competitive or predation interactions between the cisco and shortjaw cisco may be more likely explanations for the demise of the latter species.

  14. The lognormal handwriter: learning, performing and declining.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Réjean ePlamondon

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The generation of handwriting is a complex neuromotor skill requiring the interaction of many cognitive processes. It aims at producing a message to be imprinted as an ink trace left on a writing medium. The generated trajectory of the pen tip is made up of strokes superimposed over time. The Kinematic Theory of rapid human movements and its family of lognormal models provide analytical representations of these strokes, often considered as the basic unit of handwriting. This paradigm has not only been experimentally confirmed in numerous predictive and physiologically significant tests but it has also been shown to be the ideal mathematical description for the impulse response of a neuromuscular system. This latter demonstration suggests that the lognormality of the velocity patterns can be interpreted as reflecting the behaviour of subjects who are in perfect control of their movements. To illustrate this interpretation, we present a short overview of the main concepts behind the Kinematic Theory and briefly describe how its models can be exploited, using various software tools, to investigate these ideal lognormal behaviors. We emphasize that the parameters extracted during various tasks can be used to analyze some underlying processes associated with their realization. To investigate the operational convergence hypothesis, we report on two original studies. First, we focus on the early steps of the motor learning process as seen as a converging behaviour toward the production of more precise lognormal patterns as young children practicing handwriting start to become more fluent writers. Second, we illustrate how aging affects handwriting by pointing out the increasing departure from the ideal lognormal behaviour as the control of the fine motricity begins to decline. Overall, the paper highlights this developmental process of merging toward a lognormal behaviour with learning, mastering this behaviour to succeed in performing a given task

  15. Conifer Decline and Mortality in Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, V.; Im, S.; Ranson, K.

    2015-12-01

    "Dark needle conifer" (DNC: Abies sibirica, Pinus sibirica and Picea obovata) decline and mortality increase were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed causes and scale of Siberian pine and fir mortality in Altai-Sayan and Baikal Lake Regions and West Siberian Plane based on in situdata and remote sensing (QuickBird, Landsat, GRACE). Geographically, mortality began on the margins of the DNC range (i.e., within the forest-steppe and conifer-broadleaf ecotones) and on terrain features with maximal water stress risk (narrow-shaped hilltops, convex steep south facing slopes, shallow well-drained soils). Within ridges, mortality occurred mainly along mountain passes, where stands faced drying winds. Regularly mortality was observed to decrease with elevation increase with the exception of Baikal Lake Mountains, where it was minimal near the lake shore and increased with elevation (up to about 1000 m a.s.l.). Siberian pine and fir mortality followed a drying trend with consecutive droughts since the 1980s. Dendrochronology analysis showed that mortality was correlated with vapor pressure deficit increase, drought index, soil moisture decrease and occurrence of late frosts. In Baikal region Siberian pine mortality correlated with Baikal watershed meteorological variables. An impact of previous year climate conditions on the current growth was found (r2 = 0.6). Thus, water-stressed trees became sensitive to bark beetles and fungi impact (including Polygraphus proximus and Heterobasidion annosum). At present, an increase in mortality is observed within the majority of DNC range. Results obtained also showed a primary role of water stress in that phenomenon with a secondary role of bark beetles and fungi attacks. In future climate with increased drought severity and frequency Siberian pine and fir will partly disappear from its current range, and will be substituted by drought-tolerant species (e.g., Pinus silvestris, Larix sibirica).

  16. The late Quaternary decline and extinction of palms on oceanic Pacific islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prebble, M.; Dowe, J. L.

    2008-12-01

    Late Quaternary palaeoecological records of palm decline, extirpation and extinction are explored from the oceanic islands of the Pacific Ocean. Despite the severe reduction of faunal diversity coincidental with human colonisation of these previously uninhabited oceanic islands, relatively few plant extinctions have been recorded. At low taxonomic levels, recent faunal extinctions on oceanic islands are concentrated in larger bodied representatives of certain genera and families. Fossil and historic records of plant extinction show a similar trend with high representation of the palm family, Arecaceae. Late Holocene decline of palm pollen types is demonstrated from most islands where there are palaeoecological records including the Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, the Hawaiian Islands, the Juan Fernandez Islands and Rapanui. A strong correspondence between human impact and palm decline is measured from palynological proxies including increased concentrations of charcoal particles and pollen from cultivated plants and invasive weeds. Late Holocene extinctions or extirpations are recorded across all five of the Arecaceae subfamilies of the oceanic Pacific islands. These are most common for the genus Pritchardia but also many sedis fossil palm types were recorded representing groups lacking diagnostic morphological characters.

  17. The decline of sectorial components of the world's energy intensity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldemberg, José; Siqueira Prado, Luiz Tadeo

    2013-01-01

    The world's primary energy consumption in the last 40 years has been increasing at 2.2%/year while GDP growth has been 3.4%/years over the same period. The decline of the energy intensity (I=E/GDP) has been, therefore, of 1.2%/year. In order to reduce the world's consumption growth proposal have been made to reduce the world's energy intensity by 40% by 2030 which corresponds to a reduction of 2.5%/year, roughly the double of the historical decline. Our analysis shoes that such goal could only be achieved by an unprecedented reduction of the energy intensity of “services” (which represent less than half the world energy consumption) since energy intensity of industry has remained practically constant in the last 40 years. - Highlights: ► GDP and world's energy consumption are split in 2 main sectors: industry and “services”, etc. ► The evolution of the energy intensity for these sectors since 1971 is calculated. ► The energy intensity of the industry sector is practically constant since 1971. ► All the decline of the energy intensity since 1971 comes from the “services” sector

  18. The global decline of cheetah Acinonyx jubatus and what it means for conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durant, Sarah M; Mitchell, Nicholas; Groom, Rosemary; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Ipavec, Audrey; Jacobson, Andrew P; Woodroffe, Rosie; Böhm, Monika; Hunter, Luke T B; Becker, Matthew S; Broekhuis, Femke; Bashir, Sultana; Andresen, Leah; Aschenborn, Ortwin; Beddiaf, Mohammed; Belbachir, Farid; Belbachir-Bazi, Amel; Berbash, Ali; Brandao de Matos Machado, Iracelma; Breitenmoser, Christine; Chege, Monica; Cilliers, Deon; Davies-Mostert, Harriet; Dickman, Amy J; Ezekiel, Fabiano; Farhadinia, Mohammad S; Funston, Paul; Henschel, Philipp; Horgan, Jane; de Iongh, Hans H; Jowkar, Houman; Klein, Rebecca; Lindsey, Peter Andrew; Marker, Laurie; Marnewick, Kelly; Melzheimer, Joerg; Merkle, Johnathan; M'soka, Jassiel; Msuha, Maurus; O'Neill, Helen; Parker, Megan; Purchase, Gianetta; Sahailou, Samaila; Saidu, Yohanna; Samna, Abdoulkarim; Schmidt-Küntzel, Anne; Selebatso, Eda; Sogbohossou, Etotépé A; Soultan, Alaaeldin; Stone, Emma; van der Meer, Esther; van Vuuren, Rudie; Wykstra, Mary; Young-Overton, Kim

    2017-01-17

    Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) are key tools for biodiversity conservation. However, this approach is insufficient for many species, particularly those that are wide-ranging and sparse. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus exemplifies such a species and faces extreme challenges to its survival. Here, we show that the global population is estimated at ∼7,100 individuals and confined to 9% of its historical distributional range. However, the majority of current range (77%) occurs outside of PAs, where the species faces multiple threats. Scenario modeling shows that, where growth rates are suppressed outside PAs, extinction rates increase rapidly as the proportion of population protected declines. Sensitivity analysis shows that growth rates within PAs have to be high if they are to compensate for declines outside. Susceptibility of cheetah to rapid decline is evidenced by recent rapid contraction in range, supporting an uplisting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List threat assessment to endangered. Our results are applicable to other protection-reliant species, which may be subject to systematic underestimation of threat when there is insufficient information outside PAs. Ultimately, conserving many of these species necessitates a paradigm shift in conservation toward a holistic approach that incentivizes protection and promotes sustainable human-wildlife coexistence across large multiple-use landscapes.

  19. F(α) curves: Experimental results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glazier, J.A.; Gunaratne, G.; Libchaber, A.

    1988-01-01

    We study the transition to chaos at the golden and silver means for forced Rayleigh-Benard (RB) convection in mercury. We present f(α) curves below, at, and above the transition, and provide comparisons to the curves calculated for the one-dimensional circle map. We find good agreement at both the golden and silver means. This confirms our earlier observation that for low amplitude forcing, forced RB convection is well described by the one-dimensional circle map and indicates that the f(α) curve is a good measure of the approach to criticality. For selected subcritical experimental data sets we calculate the degree of subcriticality. We also present both experimental and calculated results for f(α) in the presence of a third frequency. Again we obtain agreement: The presence of random noise or a third frequency narrows the right-hand (negative q) side of the f(α) curve. Subcriticality results in symmetrically narrowed curves. We can also distinguish these cases by examining the power spectra and Poincare sections of the time series

  20. Multiwavelength light curve parameters of Cepheid variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhardwaj Anupam

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a comparative analysis of theoretical and observed light curves of Cepheid variables using Fourier decomposition. The theoretical light curves at multiple wavelengths are generated using stellar pulsation models for chemical compositions representative of Cepheids in the Galaxy and Magellanic Clouds. The observed light curves at optical (VI, near-infrared (JHKs and mid-infrared (3.6 & 4.5-μm bands are compiled from the literature. We discuss the variation of light curve parameters as a function of period, wavelength and metallicity. Theoretical and observed Fourier amplitude parameters decrease with increase in wavelength while the phase parameters increase with wavelength. We find that theoretical amplitude parameters obtained using canonical mass-luminosity levels exhibit a greater offset with respect to observations when compared to non-canonical relations. We also discuss the impact of variation in convective efficiency on the light curve structure of Cepheid variables. The increase in mixing length parameter results in a zero-point offset in bolometric mean magnitudes and reduces the systematic large difference in theoretical amplitudes with respect to observations.

  1. Comparison of power curve monitoring methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cambron Philippe

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Performance monitoring is an important aspect of operating wind farms. This can be done through the power curve monitoring (PCM of wind turbines (WT. In the past years, important work has been conducted on PCM. Various methodologies have been proposed, each one with interesting results. However, it is difficult to compare these methods because they have been developed using their respective data sets. The objective of this actual work is to compare some of the proposed PCM methods using common data sets. The metric used to compare the PCM methods is the time needed to detect a change in the power curve. Two power curve models will be covered to establish the effect the model type has on the monitoring outcomes. Each model was tested with two control charts. Other methodologies and metrics proposed in the literature for power curve monitoring such as areas under the power curve and the use of statistical copulas have also been covered. Results demonstrate that model-based PCM methods are more reliable at the detecting a performance change than other methodologies and that the effectiveness of the control chart depends on the types of shift observed.

  2. Asymptotic scalings of developing curved pipe flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ault, Jesse; Chen, Kevin; Stone, Howard

    2015-11-01

    Asymptotic velocity and pressure scalings are identified for the developing curved pipe flow problem in the limit of small pipe curvature and high Reynolds numbers. The continuity and Navier-Stokes equations in toroidal coordinates are linearized about Dean's analytical curved pipe flow solution (Dean 1927). Applying appropriate scaling arguments to the perturbation pressure and velocity components and taking the limits of small curvature and large Reynolds number yields a set of governing equations and boundary conditions for the perturbations, independent of any Reynolds number and pipe curvature dependence. Direct numerical simulations are used to confirm these scaling arguments. Fully developed straight pipe flow is simulated entering a curved pipe section for a range of Reynolds numbers and pipe-to-curvature radius ratios. The maximum values of the axial and secondary velocity perturbation components along with the maximum value of the pressure perturbation are plotted along the curved pipe section. The results collapse when the scaling arguments are applied. The numerically solved decay of the velocity perturbation is also used to determine the entrance/development lengths for the curved pipe flows, which are shown to scale linearly with the Reynolds number.

  3. Critical Factors for Inducing Curved Somatosensory Saccades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamami Nakano

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available We are able to make a saccade toward a tactile stimuli to one hand, but trajectories of many saccades curved markedly when the arms were crossed (Groh & Sparks, 2006. However, it remains unknown why some curved and others did not. We therefore examined critical factors for inducing the curved somatosensory saccades. Participants made a saccade as soon as possible from a central fixation point toward a tactile stimulus delivered to one of the two hands, and switched between arms-crossed and arms-uncrossed postures every 6 trials. Trajectories were generally straight when the arms were uncrossed, but all participants made curved saccades when the arms were crossed (12–64%. We found that the probability of curved saccades depended critically on the onset latency: the probability was less than 5% when the latency was larger than 250 ms, but the probability increased up to 70–80% when the onset latency was 160 ms. This relationship was shared across participants. The results suggest that a touch in the arms-crossed posture was always mapped to the wrong hand in the initial phase up to 160 ms, and then remapped to the correct hand during the next 100 ms by some fundamental neural mechanisms shared across participants.

  4. 32 CFR 174.18 - Historic preservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Historic preservation. 174.18 Section 174.18... Historic preservation. (a) The transfer, lease, or sale of National Register-eligible historic property to... the regulations implementing the National Historic Preservation Act (36 CFR 800.5(a)(2)(vii)). One way...

  5. Historical earthquake investigations in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Makropoulos

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The active tectonics of the area of Greece and its seismic activity have always been present in the country?s history. Many researchers, tempted to work on Greek historical earthquakes, have realized that this is a task not easily fulfilled. The existing catalogues of strong historical earthquakes are useful tools to perform general SHA studies. However, a variety of supporting datasets, non-uniformly distributed in space and time, need to be further investigated. In the present paper, a review of historical earthquake studies in Greece is attempted. The seismic history of the country is divided into four main periods. In each one of them, characteristic examples, studies and approaches are presented.

  6. Real Analysis A Historical Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Stahl, Saul

    2011-01-01

    A provocative look at the tools and history of real analysis This new edition of Real Analysis: A Historical Approach continues to serve as an interesting read for students of analysis. Combining historical coverage with a superb introductory treatment, this book helps readers easily make the transition from concrete to abstract ideas. The book begins with an exciting sampling of classic and famous problems first posed by some of the greatest mathematicians of all time. Archimedes, Fermat, Newton, and Euler are each summoned in turn, illuminating the utility of infinite, power, and trigonome

  7. The Supercritical Pile Gamma-Ray Burst Model: The GRB Afterglow Steep Decline and Plateau Phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultana, Joseph; Kazanas, D.; Mastichiadis, A.

    2013-01-01

    We present a process that accounts for the steep decline and plateau phase of the Swift X-Ray Telescope (XRT) light curves, vexing features of gamma-ray burst (GRB) phenomenology. This process is an integral part of the "supercritical pile" GRB model, proposed a few years ago to account for the conversion of the GRB kinetic energy into radiation with a spectral peak at E(sub pk) is approx. m(sub e)C(exp 2). We compute the evolution of the relativistic blast wave (RBW) Lorentz factor Gamma to show that the radiation-reaction force due to the GRB emission can produce an abrupt, small (approx. 25%) decrease in Gamma at a radius that is smaller (depending on conditions) than the deceleration radius R(sub D). Because of this reduction, the kinematic criticality criterion of the "supercritical pile" is no longer fulfilled. Transfer of the proton energy into electrons ceases and the GRB enters abruptly the afterglow phase at a luminosity smaller by approx. m(sub p)/m(sub e) than that of the prompt emission. If the radius at which this slow-down occurs is significantly smaller than R(sub D), the RBW internal energy continues to drive the RBW expansion at a constant (new) Gamma and its X-ray luminosity remains constant until R(sub D) is reached, at which point it resumes its more conventional decay, thereby completing the "unexpected" XRT light curve phase. If this transition occurs at R is approx. equal to R(sub D), the steep decline is followed by a flux decrease instead of a "plateau," consistent with the conventional afterglow declines. Besides providing an account of these peculiarities, the model suggests that the afterglow phase may in fact begin before the RBW reaches R is approx. equal to R(sub D), thus providing novel insights into GRB phenomenology.

  8. Predicting loss of employment over three years in multiple sclerosis: clinically meaningful cognitive decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Sarah A; Drake, Allison; Zivadinov, Robert; Munschauer, Frederick; Weinstock-Guttman, Bianca; Benedict, Ralph H B

    2010-10-01

    Cognitive dysfunction is common in multiple sclerosis (MS), yet the magnitude of change on objective neuropsychological (NP) tests that is clinically meaningful is unclear. We endeavored to determine NP markers of the transition from employment to work disability in MS, as indicated by degree of decline on individual tests. Participants were 97 employed MS patients followed over 41.3 ± 17.6 months with a NP battery covering six domains of cognitive function. Deterioration at follow-up was designated as documented and paid disability benefits (conservative definition) or a reduction in hours/work responsibilities (liberal definition). Using the conservative definition, 28.9% reported deteriorated employment status and for the liberal definition, 45.4%. The Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) and California Verbal Learning Test, Total Learning (CVLT2-TL) measures distinguished employed and disabled patients at follow-up. Controlling for demographic and MS characteristics, the odds ratio of a deterioration based on a change of 2.0 on the CVLT2-TL was 3.7 (95% CI 1.2-11.4 and SDMT by 4.0 was 4.2 (95% CI 1.2-14.8), accounting for 86.7% of the area under the ROC curve. We conclude that decline on NP testing over time is predictive of deterioration in vocational status, establishing a magnitude of decline on NP tests that is clinically meaningful.

  9. Surface growth kinematics via local curve evolution

    KAUST Repository

    Moulton, Derek E.

    2012-11-18

    A mathematical framework is developed to model the kinematics of surface growth for objects that can be generated by evolving a curve in space, such as seashells and horns. Growth is dictated by a growth velocity vector field defined at every point on a generating curve. A local orthonormal basis is attached to each point of the generating curve and the velocity field is given in terms of the local coordinate directions, leading to a fully local and elegant mathematical structure. Several examples of increasing complexity are provided, and we demonstrate how biologically relevant structures such as logarithmic shells and horns emerge as analytical solutions of the kinematics equations with a small number of parameters that can be linked to the underlying growth process. Direct access to cell tracks and local orientation enables for connections to be made to the underlying growth process. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  10. Asymmetry dependence of the nuclear caloric curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McIntosh, A.B.; Bonasera, A.; Cammarata, P.; Hagel, K.; Heilborn, L.; Kohley, Z.; Mabiala, J.; May, L.W.; Marini, P.; Raphelt, A.; Souliotis, G.A.; Wuenschel, S.; Zarrella, A.; Yennello, S.J.

    2013-01-01

    A basic feature of the nuclear equation of state is not yet understood: the dependence of the nuclear caloric curve on the neutron–proton asymmetry. Predictions of theoretical models differ on the magnitude and even the sign of this dependence. In this work, the nuclear caloric curve is examined for fully reconstructed quasi-projectiles around mass A=50. The caloric curve extracted with the momentum quadrupole fluctuation thermometer shows that the temperature varies linearly with quasi-projectile asymmetry (N−Z)/A . An increase in asymmetry of 0.15 units corresponds to a decrease in temperature on the order of 1 MeV. These results also highlight the importance of a full quasi-projectile reconstruction in the study of thermodynamic properties of hot nuclei

  11. The genus curve of the Abell clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoads, James E.; Gott, J. Richard, III; Postman, Marc

    1994-01-01

    We study the topology of large-scale structure through a genus curve measurement of the recent Abell catalog redshift survey of Postman, Huchra, and Geller (1992). The structure is found to be spongelike near median density and to exhibit isolated superclusters and voids at high and low densities, respectively. The genus curve shows a slight shift toward 'meatball' topology, but remains consistent with the hypothesis of Gaussian random phase initial conditions. The amplitude of the genus curve corresponds to a power-law spectrum with index n = 0.21-0.47+0.43 on scales of 48/h Mpc or to a cold dark matter power spectrum with omega h = 0.36-0.17+0.46.

  12. Differential geometry of curves and surfaces

    CERN Document Server

    Banchoff, Thomas F

    2010-01-01

    Students and professors of an undergraduate course in differential geometry will appreciate the clear exposition and comprehensive exercises in this book that focuses on the geometric properties of curves and surfaces, one- and two-dimensional objects in Euclidean space. The problems generally relate to questions of local properties (the properties observed at a point on the curve or surface) or global properties (the properties of the object as a whole). Some of the more interesting theorems explore relationships between local and global properties. A special feature is the availability of accompanying online interactive java applets coordinated with each section. The applets allow students to investigate and manipulate curves and surfaces to develop intuition and to help analyze geometric phenomena.

  13. Experimental simulation of closed timelike curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringbauer, Martin; Broome, Matthew A; Myers, Casey R; White, Andrew G; Ralph, Timothy C

    2014-06-19

    Closed timelike curves are among the most controversial features of modern physics. As legitimate solutions to Einstein's field equations, they allow for time travel, which instinctively seems paradoxical. However, in the quantum regime these paradoxes can be resolved, leaving closed timelike curves consistent with relativity. The study of these systems therefore provides valuable insight into nonlinearities and the emergence of causal structures in quantum mechanics--essential for any formulation of a quantum theory of gravity. Here we experimentally simulate the nonlinear behaviour of a qubit interacting unitarily with an older version of itself, addressing some of the fascinating effects that arise in systems traversing a closed timelike curve. These include perfect discrimination of non-orthogonal states and, most intriguingly, the ability to distinguish nominally equivalent ways of preparing pure quantum states. Finally, we examine the dependence of these effects on the initial qubit state, the form of the unitary interaction and the influence of decoherence.

  14. Design fatigue curve for Hastelloy-X

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishiguchi, Isoharu; Muto, Yasushi; Tsuji, Hirokazu

    1983-12-01

    In the design of components intended for elevated temperature service as the experimental Very High-Temperature gas-cooled Reactor (VHTR), it is essential to prevent fatigue failure and creep-fatigue failure. The evaluation method which uses design fatigue curves is adopted in the design rules. This report discussed several aspects of these design fatigue curves for Hastelloy-X (-XR) which is considered for use as a heat-resistant alloy in the VHTR. Examination of fatigue data gathered by a literature search including unpublished data showed that Brinkman's equation is suitable for the design curve of Hastelloy-X (-XR), where total strain range Δ epsilon sub(t) is used as independent variable and fatigue life Nsub(f) is transformed into log(log Nsub(f)). (author)

  15. The genus curve of the Abell clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoads, James E.; Gott, J. Richard, III; Postman, Marc

    1994-01-01

    We study the topology of large-scale structure through a genus curve measurement of the recent Abell catalog redshift survey of Postman, Huchra, and Geller (1992). The structure is found to be spongelike near median density and to exhibit isolated superclusters and voids at high and low densities, respectively. The genus curve shows a slight shift toward 'meatball' topology, but remains consistent with the hypothesis of Gaussian random phase initial conditions. The amplitude of the genus curve corresponds to a power-law spectrum with index n = 0.21(sub -0.47 sup +0.43) on scales of 48/h Mpc or to a cold dark matter power spectrum with omega h = 0.36(sub -0.17 sup +0.46).

  16. Deep-learnt classification of light curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahabal, Ashish; Gieseke, Fabian; Pai, Akshay Sadananda Uppinakudru

    2017-01-01

    is to derive statistical features from the time series and to use machine learning methods, generally supervised, to separate objects into a few of the standard classes. In this work, we transform the time series to two-dimensional light curve representations in order to classify them using modern deep......Astronomy light curves are sparse, gappy, and heteroscedastic. As a result standard time series methods regularly used for financial and similar datasets are of little help and astronomers are usually left to their own instruments and techniques to classify light curves. A common approach...... learning techniques. In particular, we show that convolutional neural networks based classifiers work well for broad characterization and classification. We use labeled datasets of periodic variables from CRTS survey and show how this opens doors for a quick classification of diverse classes with several...

  17. Energy efficiency and load curve impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feilberg, Nicolai

    2002-01-01

    One of SINTEF Energy Research's European RTD projects is the two-year EFFLOCOM (Energy EFFiciency and LOad curve impacts of COMmercial development in competitive markets). This project will determine the end-user response of different market-related services offered in deregulated power markets. The project will investigate the possibility of influencing load curves by using different price signals and two-way communications via Internet. The partners are from Denmark. Finland, England, France and Norway. SINTEF Energy Research is in charge of the project management. During the project, the changes in load curves will he studied in the in the participating countries before and after deregulation. Specific issues are the use of ICT, time- and situation-dependent tariffs and smart-house technology. The project will consist of 5 work packages that will give recommendations about new methods, guidelines and tools to promote effective use of energy in the partner countries. The total budget is EUR 692 000. (author)

  18. Trend curve data development and testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McElroy, W.N.; Gold, R.; Simons, R.L.; Roberts, J.H.

    1986-01-01

    Existing trend curves do not account for previous and more recently observed test and power reactor flux-level, thermal neutron and γ-ray field-induced effects. Any agreement between measured data and trend curve predictions that does not adequately represent the important neutron environmental and temperature effects as well as the microstructural damage processes, therefore, could be fortuitous. Empirically derived end-of-life (EOL) and life-extension-range (LER) trend curves are presented and discussed in this paper for high temperature [∼288 0 C (550 0 F)] irradiation of two weld, two plate, and two forging pressure vessel (PV) steels and low-temperature [∼60 0 C (140 0 F)] irradiation of one support structure-type steel

  19. Minimal families of curves on surfaces

    KAUST Repository

    Lubbes, Niels

    2014-11-01

    A minimal family of curves on an embedded surface is defined as a 1-dimensional family of rational curves of minimal degree, which cover the surface. We classify such minimal families using constructive methods. This allows us to compute the minimal families of a given surface.The classification of minimal families of curves can be reduced to the classification of minimal families which cover weak Del Pezzo surfaces. We classify the minimal families of weak Del Pezzo surfaces and present a table with the number of minimal families of each weak Del Pezzo surface up to Weyl equivalence.As an application of this classification we generalize some results of Schicho. We classify algebraic surfaces that carry a family of conics. We determine the minimal lexicographic degree for the parametrization of a surface that carries at least 2 minimal families. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

  20. Energy and GHG abatement cost curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvarenga, Rafael [BHP Billiton Base Metals (Australia)

    2010-07-01

    Global warming due to various reasons but especially to emission of green house gases (GHGs) has become a cause for serious concern. This paper discusses the steps taken by BHP Billiton to reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions using cost curves. According to forecasts, global warming is expected to impact Chile badly and the rise in temperature could be between 1 and more than 5 degrees Celsius. Mining in Chile consumes a lot of energy, particularly electricity. Total energy and electricity consumption in 2007 was 13 and 36 % respectively. BHP base metals developed a set of abatement cost curves for energy and GHG in Chile and these are shown in figures. The methodology for the curves consisted of consultant visits to each mine operation. The study also includes mass energy balance and feasibility maps. The paper concludes that it is important to evaluate the potential for reducing emissions and energy and their associated costs.

  1. The Blind Spot. Borderline Questions of Historical Semantics between Reinhart Koselleck and Niklas Luhmann

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maurizio Merlo

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the wide critical reviews that the enterprise of Begriffsgeschichte has triggered, the difficult relationship that conceptual history – in its Koselleckian declination – entertains with systemic theory has remained maybe underexposed until now. Moving from the tension between experience and historicity in Koselleck, the article reflects on the tensions that the historical-conceptual structure reveals as soon as it comes into contact with the problems of historical semantics that accompany the Luhmannian attempt of operating, in the register of second order observation, a temporal dislocation and a de-paradoxification of the paradox activated by Derrida’s différance, as constitutive of historicity. The blind spot at the bottom of Luhmannian gaze cuts out the borders of the “history” continent along the lines of the shipwreck of the classic semantics of modernity.

  2. Ohia forest decline: its spread and severity in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwin Q. P. Petteys; Robert E. Burgan; Robert E. Nelson

    1975-01-01

    Ohia forest decline–its severity and rate of spread–was studied by aerial photographic techniques on a 197,000-acre (80,000-ha) portion of the island of Hawaii. In 1954, only 300 acres (121 ha) showed signs of severe decline; by 1972, the acreage of severely affected forest had increased to 85,200 acres (34,480 ha). Rate of decline and current severity were related to...

  3. POSSIBLE RECESSION CURVE APPLICATIONS FOR RETENTION EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Liberacki

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the article was to present possible applications of recession flow curve in a small lowland watershed retention discharge size evaluation. The examined woodland micro catchment area of 0.52 sq km is located in Puszcza Zielonka in central Wielkopolska. The Hutka catchment is typically woody with high retention abilities. The catchment of the Hutka watercourse is forested in 89%, the other 11% is covered by swamps and wasteland. The predominant sites are fresh mixed coniferous forest (BMśw, fresh coniferous forest (Bśw and alder carr forest (Ol. Landscape in catchment is characterized by a large number of interior depressions, filled partly with rainwater or peatbogs, with poorly developed natural drainage. The watercourses do not exceed 1 km in length, the mean width is approx. 0.5 m, while mean depth ranges from 0.2 to 0.3 m. During hydrological research conducted in 1997/1998–1999/2000, 35 major (characteristic raised water stages were observed in Hutka after substantial precipitation. The recession curve dating from 18–24 September 2000 has the α and n rates nearest to average. Comparing the model curve and the curve created by observing watercourse flow, one can notice their resemblance and that they have similar ordinate values as well as shape. In the case of other recession curves, the maximum differences of ordinate values are also about 0.1–0.2 l/s/km2. The measuured α and n rates do not reveal any regularities. There are no significant statistical Horton model parameter (for recession flow curves dependencies between α and n and e.g. initial flows (Qo or the whole period of high water waves (Qp. Consequently, calculated relation between these parameters is only an approximation for the general evaluation of the retention discharge in the catchment area towards retention with flow function.

  4. Declining sustained virological response in hepatitis c

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batool, U.; Qureshi, S.

    2006-01-01

    gender, baseline ALT and necro inflammatory stage assessed by liver biopsy, probable risk factors and positive family history. Conclusion: Management of hepatitis C with genotype 3a, with standard Interferon and Ribazole for six months appear to show declining SVR compared to that reported in previous international and local data. (author)

  5. A unique UV flare in the optical light curve of the quasar J004457.9+412344

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hatzidimitriou D.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available We found that the nova candidate J004457.9+412344 is a radio-quiet quasar at z ∼ 2. Its optical long-term light curve, covering more than half a century, shows quasar typical flux variations superimposed by a spectacular single flare lasting more than one year (observer frame. We could not find comparable light curves among the several thousand catalogued radio-quiet quasars in the stripe 82 of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The decreasing part of the flare light curve roughly follows a power law t−5/3. The quasar spectrum, the total energy of the flare, and the decline of the light curve are consistent with the tidal disruption of a ∼10 Mʘ giant star by a supermassive black hole of a few 108 Mʘ. We argue that the alternative explanation by gravitational microlensing is less likely, though it cannot be definitely excluded.

  6. Fractal properties of critical invariant curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunt, B.R.; Yorke, J.A.; Khanin, K.M.; Sinai, Y.G.

    1996-01-01

    We examine the dimension of the invariant measure for some singular circle homeomorphisms for a variety of rotation numbers, through both the thermodynamic formalism and numerical computation. The maps we consider include those induced by the action of the standard map on an invariant curve at the critical parameter value beyond which the curve is destroyed. Our results indicate that the dimension is universal for a given type of singularity and rotation number, and that among all rotation numbers, the golden mean produces the largest dimension

  7. Trend curve data development and testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McElroy, W.N.; Gold, R.; Simons, R.L.; Roberts, J.H.

    1986-08-01

    Existing trend curves do not account for previous and more recently observed test and power reactor flux-level, thermal neutron and gamma-ray field-induced effects. Any agreement between measured data and trend curve predictions that does not adequately represent the important neutron environmental and temperature effects as well as the microstructural damage processes, therefore, could be fortuitous. Two principal questions asked concerning the metallurgical condition of the pressure vessel and its support structures are: What are the controlling variables; and What effects do they have on changing the metallurgical properties of the vessel and its support structures throughout their lifetimes

  8. Linear Titration Curves of Acids and Bases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, N R

    1959-05-29

    The Henderson-Hasselbalch equation, by a simple transformation, becomes pH - pK = pA - pB, where pA and pB are the negative logarithms of acid and base concentrations. Sigmoid titration curves then reduce to straight lines; titration curves of polyelectrolytes, to families of straight lines. The method is applied to the titration of the dipeptide glycyl aminotricarballylic acid, with four titrable groups. Results are expressed as Cartesian and d'Ocagne nomograms. The latter is of a general form applicable to polyelectrolytes of any degree of complexity.

  9. From Curve Fitting to Machine Learning

    CERN Document Server

    Zielesny, Achim

    2011-01-01

    The analysis of experimental data is at heart of science from its beginnings. But it was the advent of digital computers that allowed the execution of highly non-linear and increasingly complex data analysis procedures - methods that were completely unfeasible before. Non-linear curve fitting, clustering and machine learning belong to these modern techniques which are a further step towards computational intelligence. The goal of this book is to provide an interactive and illustrative guide to these topics. It concentrates on the road from two dimensional curve fitting to multidimensional clus

  10. Phonon dispersion curves for CsCN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaur, N.K.; Singh, Preeti; Rini, E.G.; Galgale, Jyostna; Singh, R.K.

    2004-01-01

    The motivation for the present work was gained from the recent publication on phonon dispersion curves (PDCs) of CsCN from the neutron scattering technique. We have applied the extended three-body force shell model (ETSM) by incorporating the effect of coupling between the translation modes and the orientation of cyanide molecules for the description of phonon dispersion curves of CsCN between the temperatures 195 and 295 K. Our results on PDCs in symmetric direction are in good agreement with the experimental data measured with inelastic neutron scattering technique. (author)

  11. Bound states in curved quantum waveguides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Exner, P.; Seba, P.

    1987-01-01

    We study free quantum particle living on a curved planar strip Ω of a fixed width d with Dirichlet boundary conditions. It can serve as a model for electrons in thin films on a cylindrical-type substrate, or in a curved quantum wire. Assuming that the boundary of Ω is infinitely smooth and its curvature decays fast enough at infinity, we prove that a bound state with energy below the first transversal mode exists for all sufficiently small d. A lower bound on the critical width is obtained using the Birman-Schwinger technique. (orig.)

  12. Strange Curves, Counting Rabbits, & Other Mathematical Explorations

    CERN Document Server

    Ball, Keith

    2011-01-01

    How does mathematics enable us to send pictures from space back to Earth? Where does the bell-shaped curve come from? Why do you need only 23 people in a room for a 50/50 chance of two of them sharing the same birthday? In Strange Curves, Counting Rabbits, and Other Mathematical Explorations, Keith Ball highlights how ideas, mostly from pure math, can answer these questions and many more. Drawing on areas of mathematics from probability theory, number theory, and geometry, he explores a wide range of concepts, some more light-hearted, others central to the development of the field and used dai

  13. Boiling curve in high quality flow boiling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiralkar, B.S.; Hein, R.A.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1980-01-01

    The post dry-out heat transfer regime of the flow boiling curve was investigated experimentally for high pressure water at high qualities. The test section was a short round tube located downstream of a hot patch created by a temperature controlled segment of tubing. Results from the experiment showed that the distance from the dryout point has a significant effect on the downstream temperatures and there was no unique boiling curve. The heat transfer coefficients measured sufficiently downstream of the dryout point could be correlated using the Heineman correlation for superheated steam, indicating that the droplet deposition effects could be neglected in this region

  14. Light Curve Analysis of SAO23229

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho-Il Kim

    1993-06-01

    Full Text Available We have made UBV light curves of a newly discovered eclipsing binary, SAO23229 at Sobaeksan Astronomy Observatory. We determined a minimum light time of HJD2448636.1170+/-0.0005 that is 3 minutes later than predicted time, and founda peculiar light variation at phase 0.75 that may not be secondary eclipse. Orbital period of SAO23229 would be 4.2 days rather than 2.1 days. Our analysis of the light curves shows that SAO23229 has a detached configuration consisting of two almost identical F type main sequence stars.

  15. What distinguishes passive recipients from active decliners of sales flyers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Orquin, Jacob Lund; Bech-Larsen, Tino

    2014-01-01

    While sales flyer ad spending in Denmark has increased over the last decade ,the proportion of consumers declining to receive such flyers has been ever-increasing. To address this paradox, attitudinal and behavioural factors distinguishing passive recipients from active decliners of sales flyers ...... on the Internet.To reach the decliners, retailers could focus on the possibilities of the Internet, but to stop the trend of escalating numbers of decliners, retailers will have to address the perceived inconvenience and uselessness of sales flyers....

  16. Evaluating the Association between Diabetes, Cognitive Decline and Dementia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omorogieva Ojo

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to review the association between diabetes mellitus, cognitive decline and dementia, including the effects of cognitive decline and dementia on self management of diabetes. This is a literature review of primary research articles. A number of contemporary research articles that met the inclusion criteria were selected for this review paper. These articles were selected using a number of search strategies and electronic databases, such as EBSCOhost Research and SwetsWise databases. The duration of diabetes, glycated haemoglobin levels and glycaemic fluctuations were associated with cognitive decline and dementia. Similarly, hypoglycaemia was significantly related to increased risk of developing cognitive decline and dementia. Furthermore, cognitive decline and dementia were associated with poorer diabetes management. There is evidence of the association between diabetes, cognitive decline and dementia including the shared pathogenesis between diabetes and Alzheimer’s disease. In addition, the self management of diabetes is affected by dementia and cognitive decline. It could be suggested that the association between diabetes and dementia is bidirectional with the potential to proceed to a vicious cycle. Further studies are needed in order to fully establish the relationship between diabetes, cognitive decline and dementia. Patients who have diabetes and dementia could benefit from structured education strategies, which should involve empowerment programmes and lifestyle changes. The detection of cognitive decline should highlight the need for education strategies.

  17. Analysis of characteristic performance curves in radiodiagnosis by an observer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kossovoj, A.L.

    1988-01-01

    Methods and ways of construction of performance characteristic curves (PX-curves) in roentgenology, their qualitative and quantitative estimation are described. Estimation of PX curves application for analysis of scintigraphic and sonographic images is presented

  18. a new approach of Analysing GRB light curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varga, B.; Horvath, I.

    2005-01-01

    We estimated the T xx quantiles of the cumulative GRB light curves using our recalculated background. The basic information of the light curves was extracted by multivariate statistical methods. The possible classes of the light curves are also briefly discussed

  19. A Declining Region: Provincial Renaissance Revisited (Case of Volgograd Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drozdova Yuliya

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes findings yielded by the empirical study performed in the framework of an RGNF grant entitled “Image of a region as a communicative strategy for the authorities and mass media”. The methods of study included expert survey and formal survey (N=1000, July-September 2013, studying the opinion of respondents who were either internal experts residing in the Volgograd region (N=20; May-September 2013 or external experts who reside outside the region but maintain stable ties with the representatives of state and municipal authorities, regional mass media and business. The findings indicate that the Volgograd region has fallen behind other modernized Russian regions, that young people tend to leave it, that a negative image of the region as a declining territory persists. Answers to the open question “What is unacceptable for you in the existing image of the Volgograd region?” revealed major problems determining the local context of a declining region, and those were issues associated with inefficient regional/municipal administration: “the condition of the roads”, “constant replacement of people in the administration”, “politics as a whole”, “a destitute region without a good manager”, “unemployment”, “countryside is dying off”, “indifference of the authorities”, “roads, housing and public utilities and the administration”, “the authorities are not responsible for the people”, “the authorities do not solve the problems of the city or its people”, “thieving”, “dishonest authorities”, “the region goes to rack and ruin, no kindergartens or jobs”, “one cannot even walk in the streets”, “corruption”, “a stagnant region with low pay”, “no perspectives in the future”, “the region is stagnating due to corruption among officials”. According to the local Census Bureau, the Volgograd region can be classified as a declining territory where the population decline

  20. Decline in word-finding: The objective cognitive finding most relevant to patients after mesial temporal lobe epilepsy surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauli, Carla; de Oliveira Thais, Maria Emilia Rodrigues; Guarnieri, Ricardo; Schwarzbold, Marcelo Liborio; Diaz, Alexandre Paim; Ben, Juliana; Linhares, Marcelo Neves; Markowitsch, Hans Joachim; Wolf, Peter; Wiebe, Samuel; Lin, Katia; Walz, Roger

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the following: i) the objective impairment in neuropsychological tests that were associated with the subjective perception of cognitive function decline in Brazilian patients who underwent mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE) surgery and ii) the predictive variables for those impaired objective neuropsychological tests. Forty-eight adults with MTLE (27 right HS and 23 male) were divided according to their perception of changes (Decline or No-decline) of cognitive function domain of the QOLIE-31 questionnaire applied before and 1year after the ATL. The mean (SD) of changes in the raw score difference of the neuropsychological tests before and after the ATL was compared between Decline and No-decline groups. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were used to assess the optimum cutoff points of neuropsychological test score changes to predict patient-reported subjective cognitive decline. Six (12.5%) patients reported a perception of cognitive function decline after ATL. Among the 25 cognitive tests analyzed, only changes in the Boston Naming Test (BNT) were associated with subjective cognitive decline reported by patients. A reduction of ≥8 points in the raw score of BNT after surgery had 91% of sensitivity and 45% specificity for predicting subjective perception of cognitive function decline by the patient. Left side surgery and age older than 40years were more associated with an important BNT reduction with overall accuracy of 91.7%, 95% predictive ability for no impairment, and 75% for impairment of cognitive function. Impairment in word-finding seems to be the objective cognitive finding most relevant to Brazilian patients after mesial temporal lobe epilepsy surgery. Similar to American patients, the side of surgery and age are good predictors for no decline in the BNT, but shows a lower accuracy to predict its decline. If replicated in other populations, the