A regional approach to the environmental risk assessment in the Campania region

Science.gov (United States)

Minolfi, Giulia; Albanese, Stefano; Lima, Annamaria; De Vivo, Benedetto

2016-04-01

Environmental risk assessment and analysis has a crucial role for guaranteeing the safety of the population, especially in intensive urbanized and industrialized areas, such as the Campania region (Italy). In Italy, since 2006, the human health risk assessment has become mandatory for contaminated soil and waters at contaminated sites. While traditional risk assessment procedures are usually run at site specific level (brownfields), with this work we would like to introduce a freshly developed method to assess risks at regional level by means of GIS, considering the hazard due to the presence in the environment of a contaminated media, the land use variability and the actual distribution of the population. 3535 top soils were collected across the whole Campania region (Italy) with a sampling density of 1 sample/4 km2. Samples were analyzed at ACME Analytical Lab. Ltd (Vancouver, Canada), to determine the concentration of 52 elements, with a combined methods of ICP-MS and ICP-ES following an aqua regia digestion. After a detailed statistical data analysis and geochemical mapping, we reclassified the interpolated maps of some potentially toxic elements (Sb, As, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb, Se, Sn, Tl, V, Zn), in accordance with the Italian environmental law (D.Lgs 152/2006), on the base of the trigger and action limits (CSC) for human safety established by this latter. The obtained maps were summed up in the GIS environment in order to get a cumulative map of the potential hazard for the topsoils of Campania region. Considering that environmental risk for the population is strongly influenced by the exposure pathways followed by contaminants to reach the human target, in the case of Campania region we evaluated as relevant pathways both the soil/dust and food ingestion. Furthermore to consider the influence of the land use in the onset of the risk, each land use type was associated with a specific value of a Land Use Risk Coefficient (LURC) which is also dependent on

Social and economic factors of the natural risk increasing: estimation of the Russian regions

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E. Petrova

2004-01-01

Full Text Available This study is an attempt to assess quantitatively social and economic factors that determine vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk, to trace the space differences of the considered factors, and to group the regions by their similarity. In order to indicate the regional differences in social and economic development, equipment condition, dangerous substances accumulation, and social trouble four the most suitable parameters were estimated, including the per capita production of Gross Regional Product (GRP, capital consumption, volume of total toxic waste, and crime rate. Increase of the first parameter causes vulnerability reducing, the increase of the last three causes its increasing. Using multidimensional cluster analysis five types of regions were found for Russia according to similarity of the considered parameters. These types are characterized with higher value of a single (rarely two chosen parameter, which seems to be sufficient enough to affect natural risks increasing in these regions in near future. Only few regions belonging to the fifth type proved to have rather high value of GRP and relatively low values of the other parameters. The negative correlation was found between a number of natural disasters (ND and the per capita GRP in case when some parameters reached anomalously high value. The distinctions between regions by prevailing different parameters, which result in natural risk increasing, help risk management to find directions where to focus on.

Prevalence and risk factors of underweight, overweight and obesity among a geriatric population living in a high-altitude region of rural Uttarakhand, India.

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Aakriti; Kapil, Umesh; Khandelwal, Ritika; Khenduja, Preetika; Sareen, Neha; Pandey, Ravindra Mohan; Upadhyay, Ashish Datt

2018-03-15

To assess the prevalence and risk factors of underweight, overweight and obesity among a geriatric population living in a high-altitude region of India. Community-based cross-sectional study. Data were collected on sociodemographic profile and anthropometric parameters. Weight and height measurements were utilized for calculation of BMI. Nutrient intake data were collected using 24 h dietary recall. High-altitude region of Nainital District, Uttarakhand State, North India. Community-dwelling geriatric subjects (n 981) aged 60 years or above. We found that 26·6 % of the elderly subjects were underweight (BMI<18·5 kg/m2). Overweight (BMI 25·0-29·9 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI≥30·0 kg/m2) was seen among 18·0 % and 4·6 %, respectively. After controlling for potential cofounders, risk factors such as low level of education and income, chewing problems and lower number of daily meals were found to be associated with underweight. On the other hand, risk factors for overweight/obesity were lower age, high income and unskilled work. There is a need to develop and implement intervention strategies to prevent underweight, overweight and obesity among the geriatric population of India.

Regional risk assessment approaches to land planning for industrial polluted areas in China: the Hulunbeier region case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Daiqing; Zhang, Chen; Pizzol, Lisa; Critto, Andrea; Zhang, Haibo; Lv, Shihai; Marcomini, Antonio

2014-04-01

The rapid industrial development and urbanization processes that occurred in China over the past 30years has increased dramatically the consumption of natural resources and raw materials, thus exacerbating the human pressure on environmental ecosystems. In result, large scale environmental pollution of soil, natural waters and urban air were recorded. The development of effective industrial planning to support regional sustainable economy development has become an issue of serious concern for local authorities which need to select safe sites for new industrial settlements (i.e. industrial plants) according to assessment approaches considering cumulative impacts, synergistic pollution effects and risks of accidental releases. In order to support decision makers in the development of efficient and effective regional land-use plans encompassing the identification of suitable areas for new industrial settlements and areas in need of intervention measures, this study provides a spatial regional risk assessment methodology which integrates relative risk assessment (RRA) and socio-economic assessment (SEA) and makes use of spatial analysis (GIS) methodologies and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. The proposed methodology was applied to the Chinese region of Hulunbeier which is located in eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, adjacent to the Republic of Mongolia. The application results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in the identification of the most hazardous and risky industrial settlements, the most vulnerable regional receptors and the regional districts which resulted to be the most relevant for intervention measures since they are characterized by high regional risk and excellent socio-economic development conditions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of extreme risk regions under multivariate regular variation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cai, J.; Einmahl, J.H.J.; de Haan, L.F.M.

2011-01-01

When considering d possibly dependent random variables, one is often interested in extreme risk regions, with very small probability p. We consider risk regions of the form {z ∈ Rd : f (z) ≤ β}, where f is the joint density and β a small number. Estimation of such an extreme risk region is difficult

Improving cluster-based methods for investigating potential for insect pest species establishment: region-specific risk factors

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Michael J. Watts

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Existing cluster-based methods for investigating insect species assemblages or profiles of a region to indicate the risk of new insect pest invasion have a major limitation in that they assign the same species risk factors to each region in a cluster. Clearly regions assigned to the same cluster have different degrees of similarity with respect to their species profile or assemblage. This study addresses this concern by applying weighting factors to the cluster elements used to calculate regional risk factors, thereby producing region-specific risk factors. Using a database of the global distribution of crop insect pest species, we found that we were able to produce highly differentiated region-specific risk factors for insect pests. We did this by weighting cluster elements by their Euclidean distance from the target region. Using this approach meant that risk weightings were derived that were more realistic, as they were specific to the pest profile or species assemblage of each region. This weighting method provides an improved tool for estimating the potential invasion risk posed by exotic species given that they have an opportunity to establish in a target region.

Hazard risk and vulnerability assessment : Regional District of Nanaimo : final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-06-01

A Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (HRVA) is a mandated regulatory requirement in British Columbia that requires local authorities to prepare emergency plans that reflect the local authority's assessment of the relative risk of occurrence and the potential impact on people and property of the hazards, emergencies or disasters that could affect the jurisdictional area for which the local authority has responsibility. This report constituted an HRVA for the Regional District of Nanaimo, British Columbia. It presented the study scope and methodology and provided an overview of the Regional District of Nanaimo. This included information on the setting, demographics, and economy. Next, it discussed social vulnerability; critical response and recovery facilities; and critical infrastructure such as water, energy, telecommunications and transportation. A summary of the Regional District of Nanaimo's response capabilities that were considered when assessing the Regional District's overall risk to the hazards was also presented. Response capabilities were discussed with reference to fire and rescue; police; ambulance; and search and rescue. Emergency support and preparedness organizations were also identified. These included the Emergency Coordination Centre, environmental services, emergency social services, amateur radio and health authorities. Last, 33 hazards that could affect the Regional District of Nanaimo were identified and discussed. The study identified the following hazards as high risk: flooding; forest fires and wildland urban interface fires; and human diseases and pandemic. It was recommended that the advancement of business continuity planning in the Regional District of Nanaimo would help to reduce the impact of a possible human disease and pandemic risk outbreak affecting the population. 75 refs., 25 figs., 14 tabs., 2 appendices

Geographical Analysis for Detecting High-Risk Areas for Bovine/Human Rabies Transmitted by the Common Hematophagous Bat in the Amazon Region, Brazil.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernanda A G de Andrade

Full Text Available The common hematophagous bat, Desmodus rotundus, is one of the main wild reservoirs of rabies virus in several regions in Latin America. New production practices and changed land use have provided environmental features that have been very favorable for D. rotundus bat populations, making this species the main transmitter of rabies in the cycle that involves humans and herbivores. In the Amazon region, these features include a mosaic of environmental, social, and economic components, which together creates areas with different levels of risk for human and bovine infections, as presented in this work in the eastern Brazilian Amazon.We geo-referenced a total of 175 cases of rabies, of which 88% occurred in bovines and 12% in humans, respectively, and related these cases to a number of different geographical and biological variables. The spatial distribution was analyzed using the Kernel function, while the association with independent variables was assessed using a multi-criterion Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP technique.The spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of rabies in bovines and humans found reduction in the number of cases in the eastern state of Pará, where no more cases were recorded in humans, whereas high infection rates were recorded in bovines in the northeastern part of the state, and low rates in the southeast. The areas of highest risk for bovine rabies are found in the proximity of rivers and highways. In the case of human rabies, the highest concentration of high-risk areas was found where the highway network coincides with high densities of rural and indigenous populations.The high-risk areas for human and bovine rabies are patchily distributed, and related to extensive deforested areas, large herds of cattle, and the presence of highways. These findings provide an important database for the generation of epidemiological models that could support the development of effective prevention measures and controls.

Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michalopoulos Evangelos

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

2011-07-01

Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Identification of Major Risk Sources for Surface Water Pollution by Risk Indexes (RI) in the Multi-Provincial Boundary Region of the Taihu Basin, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Hong; Li, Weixin; Qian, Xin

2015-08-21

Environmental safety in multi-district boundary regions has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Act of 2014. Five types were categorized concerning the risk sources for surface water pollution in the multi-provincial boundary region of the Taihu basin: production enterprises, waste disposal sites, chemical storage sites, agricultural non-point sources and waterway transportations. Considering the hazard of risk sources, the purification property of environmental medium and the vulnerability of risk receptors, 52 specific attributes on the risk levels of each type of risk source were screened out. Continuous piecewise linear function model, expert consultation method and fuzzy integral model were used to calculate the integrated risk indexes (RI) to characterize the risk levels of pollution sources. In the studied area, 2716 pollution sources were characterized by RI values. There were 56 high-risk sources screened out as major risk sources, accounting for about 2% of the total. The numbers of sources with high-moderate, moderate, moderate-low and low pollution risk were 376, 1059, 101 and 1124, respectively, accounting for 14%, 38%, 5% and 41% of the total. The procedure proposed could be included in the integrated risk management systems of the multi-district boundary region of the Taihu basin. It could help decision makers to identify major risk sources in the risk prevention and reduction of surface water pollution.

Telomerase activation by genomic rearrangements in high-risk neuroblastoma

Science.gov (United States)

Peifer, Martin; Hertwig, Falk; Roels, Frederik; Dreidax, Daniel; Gartlgruber, Moritz; Menon, Roopika; Krämer, Andrea; Roncaioli, Justin L.; Sand, Frederik; Heuckmann, Johannes M.; Ikram, Fakhera; Schmidt, Rene; Ackermann, Sandra; Engesser, Anne; Kahlert, Yvonne; Vogel, Wenzel; Altmüller, Janine; Nürnberg, Peter; Thierry-Mieg, Jean; Thierry-Mieg, Danielle; Mariappan, Aruljothi; Heynck, Stefanie; Mariotti, Erika; Henrich, Kai-Oliver; Glöckner, Christian; Bosco, Graziella; Leuschner, Ivo; Schweiger, Michal R.; Savelyeva, Larissa; Watkins, Simon C.; Shao, Chunxuan; Bell, Emma; Höfer, Thomas; Achter, Viktor; Lang, Ulrich; Theissen, Jessica; Volland, Ruth; Saadati, Maral; Eggert, Angelika; de Wilde, Bram; Berthold, Frank; Peng, Zhiyu; Zhao, Chen; Shi, Leming; Ortmann, Monika; Büttner, Reinhard; Perner, Sven; Hero, Barbara; Schramm, Alexander; Schulte, Johannes H.; Herrmann, Carl; O’Sullivan, Roderick J.; Westermann, Frank; Thomas, Roman K.; Fischer, Matthias

2016-01-01

Neuroblastoma is a malignant paediatric tumour of the sympathetic nervous system1. Roughly half of these tumours regress spontaneously or are cured by limited therapy. By contrast, high-risk neuroblastomas have an unfavourable clinical course despite intensive multimodal treatment, and their molecular basis has remained largely elusive2–4. Here we have performed whole-genome sequencing of 56 neuroblastomas (high-risk, n = 39; low-risk, n = 17) and discovered recurrent genomic rearrangements affecting a chromosomal region at 5p15.33 proximal of the telomerase reverse transcriptase gene (TERT). These rearrangements occurred only in high-risk neuroblastomas (12/39, 31%) in a mutually exclusive fashion with MYCN amplifications and ATRX mutations, which are known genetic events in this tumour type1,2,5. In an extended case series (n = 217), TERT rearrangements defined a subgroup of high-risk tumours with particularly poor outcome. Despite a large structural diversity of these rearrangements, they all induced massive transcriptional upregulation of TERT. In the remaining high-risk tumours, TERT expression was also elevated in MYCN-amplified tumours, whereas alternative lengthening of telomeres was present in neuroblastomas without TERT or MYCN alterations, suggesting that telomere lengthening represents a central mechanism defining this subtype. The 5p15.33 rearrangements juxtapose the TERT coding sequence to strong enhancer elements, resulting in massive chromatin remodelling and DNA methylation of the affected region. Supporting a functional role of TERT, neuroblastoma cell lines bearing rearrangements or amplified MYCN exhibited both upregulated TERT expression and enzymatic telomerase activity. In summary, our findings show that remodelling of the genomic context abrogates transcriptional silencing of TERT in high-risk neuroblastoma and places telomerase activation in the centre of transformation in a large fraction of these tumours. PMID:26466568

Development of innovative methods for risk assessment in high-rise construction based on clustering of risk factors

Science.gov (United States)

Okolelova, Ella; Shibaeva, Marina; Shalnev, Oleg

2018-03-01

The article analyses risks in high-rise construction in terms of investment value with account of the maximum probable loss in case of risk event. The authors scrutinized the risks of high-rise construction in regions with various geographic, climatic and socio-economic conditions that may influence the project environment. Risk classification is presented in general terms, that includes aggregated characteristics of risks being common for many regions. Cluster analysis tools, that allow considering generalized groups of risk depending on their qualitative and quantitative features, were used in order to model the influence of the risk factors on the implementation of investment project. For convenience of further calculations, each type of risk is assigned a separate code with the number of the cluster and the subtype of risk. This approach and the coding of risk factors makes it possible to build a risk matrix, which greatly facilitates the task of determining the degree of impact of risks. The authors clarified and expanded the concept of the price risk, which is defined as the expected value of the event, 105 which extends the capabilities of the model, allows estimating an interval of the probability of occurrence and also using other probabilistic methods of calculation.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention based on a rapid human papillomavirus screening test in a high-risk region of China.

Science.gov (United States)

Levin, Carol E; Sellors, John; Shi, Ju-Fang; Ma, Li; Qiao, You-lin; Ortendahl, Jesse; O'Shea, Meredith K H; Goldie, Sue J

2010-09-01

This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of a new, rapid human papillomavirus (HPV)-DNA screening test for cervical cancer prevention in the high-risk region of Shanxi, China. Using micro-costing methods, we estimated the resources needed to implement preventive strategies using cervical cytology or HPV-DNA testing, including the Hybrid Capture 2 (hc2) test (QIAGEN Corp., Gaithersburg, MD) and the rapid HPV-DNA careHPV test (QIAGEN). Data were used in a previously published model and empirically calibrated to country-specific epidemiological data. Strategies differed by initial test, targeted age, frequency of screening, number of clinic visits required (1, 2 or 3) and service delivery setting (national, county and township levels). Outcomes included lifetime risk of cancer, years of life saved (YLS), lifetime costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (cost per YLS). For all screening frequencies, the most efficient strategy used 2-visit rapid HPV-DNA testing at the county level, including screening and diagnostics in the first visit, and treatment in the second visit. Screening at ages 35, 40 and 45 reduced cancer risk by 50% among women compliant with all 3 screening rounds, and was US$ 150 per YLS, compared with this same strategy applied twice per lifetime. This would be considered very cost-effective evaluated against China's per-capita gross domestic product (US$ 1,702). By enhancing the linkage between screening and treatment through a reduced number of visits, rapid HPV-DNA testing 3 times per lifetime is more effective than traditional cytology, and is likely to be cost-effective in high-risk regions of China.

High risk behaviour near OPG dams and power stations : results from two surveys

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giesbrecht, N.; Schmidt, R.; Ialomiteanu, A. [Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON (Canada)

2009-07-01

High risk behaviour near dams is not uncommon. This presentation discussed the results from 2 surveys on high risk behaviour near dams and power stations operated by Ontario Power Generation (OPG). The main components of the project were presented, with particular reference to analyses of recent literature on high-risk behaviour; interviews with OPG managers and staff in 4 regions; main survey of respondents from 4 regions; follow-up interviews with high-risk respondents; interviews with community members and contacts from recreational associations; and recommendations. Specific questions and results were provided from each survey. From the first survey, the characteristics of respondents that used OPG sites for recreation were identified. One hundred high risk respondents completed a follow-up interview. The survey showed that although high-risk behaviour is not uncommon, the main reason people use the facilities are for recreation and relaxation, and not for thrill seeking purposes. Recommendations stemming from the surveys included the need for definition of boundaries and delivery of messages via children, recreational associations, and law enforcement personnel. tabs., figs.

Identification of Major Risk Sources for Surface Water Pollution by Risk Indexes (RI in the Multi-Provincial Boundary Region of the Taihu Basin, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong Yao

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Environmental safety in multi-district boundary regions has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Act of 2014. Five types were categorized concerning the risk sources for surface water pollution in the multi-provincial boundary region of the Taihu basin: production enterprises, waste disposal sites, chemical storage sites, agricultural non-point sources and waterway transportations. Considering the hazard of risk sources, the purification property of environmental medium and the vulnerability of risk receptors, 52 specific attributes on the risk levels of each type of risk source were screened out. Continuous piecewise linear function model, expert consultation method and fuzzy integral model were used to calculate the integrated risk indexes (RI to characterize the risk levels of pollution sources. In the studied area, 2716 pollution sources were characterized by RI values. There were 56 high-risk sources screened out as major risk sources, accounting for about 2% of the total. The numbers of sources with high-moderate, moderate, moderate-low and low pollution risk were 376, 1059, 101 and 1124, respectively, accounting for 14%, 38%, 5% and 41% of the total. The procedure proposed could be included in the integrated risk management systems of the multi-district boundary region of the Taihu basin. It could help decision makers to identify major risk sources in the risk prevention and reduction of surface water pollution.

Identification of Major Risk Sources for Surface Water Pollution by Risk Indexes (RI) in the Multi-Provincial Boundary Region of the Taihu Basin, China

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Hong; Li, Weixin; Qian, Xin

2015-01-01

Environmental safety in multi-district boundary regions has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Act of 2014. Five types were categorized concerning the risk sources for surface water pollution in the multi-provincial boundary region of the Taihu basin: production enterprises, waste disposal sites, chemical storage sites, agricultural non-point sources and waterway transportations. Considering the hazard of risk sources, the purification property of environmental medium and the vulnerability of risk receptors, 52 specific attributes on the risk levels of each type of risk source were screened out. Continuous piecewise linear function model, expert consultation method and fuzzy integral model were used to calculate the integrated risk indexes (RI) to characterize the risk levels of pollution sources. In the studied area, 2716 pollution sources were characterized by RI values. There were 56 high-risk sources screened out as major risk sources, accounting for about 2% of the total. The numbers of sources with high-moderate, moderate, moderate-low and low pollution risk were 376, 1059, 101 and 1124, respectively, accounting for 14%, 38%, 5% and 41% of the total. The procedure proposed could be included in the integrated risk management systems of the multi-district boundary region of the Taihu basin. It could help decision makers to identify major risk sources in the risk prevention and reduction of surface water pollution. PMID:26308032

Social determinants of common metabolic risk factors (high blood pressure, high blood sugar, high body mass index and high waist-hip ratio) of major non-communicable diseases in South Asia region: a systematic review protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Sudesh Raj; Mishra, Shiva Raj; Wagle, Kusum; Page, Rachel; Matheson, Anna; Lambrick, Danielle; Faulkner, James; Lounsbury, David; Vaidya, Abhinav

2017-09-07

Prevalence of non-communicable diseases has been increasing at a greater pace in developing countries and, in particular, the South Asia region. Various behavioral, social and environmental factors present in this region perpetuate common metabolic risk factors of non-communicable diseases. This study will identify social determinants of common metabolic risk factors of major non-communicable diseases in the context of the South Asian region and map their causal pathway. A systematic review of selected articles will be carried out following Cochrane guidelines. Review will be guided by Social Determinants of Health Framework developed by the World Health Organization to extract social determinants of metabolic risk factors of non-communicable diseases from studies. A distinct search strategy will be applied using key words to screen relevant studies from online databases. Primary and grey literature published from the year 2000 to 2016 and studies with discussion on proximal and distal determinants of non-communicable risk factors among adults of the South Asia region will be selected. They will be further checked for quality, and a matrix illustrating contents of selected articles will be developed. Thematic content analysis will be done to trace social determinants and their interaction with metabolic risk factors. Findings will be illustrated in causal loop diagrams with social determinants of risk factors along with their interaction (feedback mechanism). The review will describe the interplay of social determinants of common NCD metabolic risk factors in the form of causal loop diagram. Findings will be structured in two parts: the first part will explain the linkage between proximal determinants with the metabolic risk factors and the second part will describe the linkage among the risk factors, proximal determinants and distal determinants. Evidences across different regions will be discussed to compare and validate and/or contrast the findings. Possible

A climate-based prediction model in the high-risk clusters of the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam: towards improving dengue prevention and control.

Science.gov (United States)

Phung, Dung; Talukder, Mohammad Radwanur Rahman; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia

2016-10-01

To develop a prediction score scheme useful for prevention practitioners and authorities to implement dengue preparedness and controls in the Mekong Delta region (MDR). We applied a spatial scan statistic to identify high-risk dengue clusters in the MDR and used generalised linear-distributed lag models to examine climate-dengue associations using dengue case records and meteorological data from 2003 to 2013. The significant predictors were collapsed into categorical scales, and the β-coefficients of predictors were converted to prediction scores. The score scheme was validated for predicting dengue outbreaks using ROC analysis. The north-eastern MDR was identified as the high-risk cluster. A 1 °C increase in temperature at lag 1-4 and 5-8 weeks increased the dengue risk 11% (95% CI, 9-13) and 7% (95% CI, 6-8), respectively. A 1% rise in humidity increased dengue risk 0.9% (95% CI, 0.2-1.4) at lag 1-4 and 0.8% (95% CI, 0.2-1.4) at lag 5-8 weeks. Similarly, a 1-mm increase in rainfall increased dengue risk 0.1% (95% CI, 0.05-0.16) at lag 1-4 and 0.11% (95% CI, 0.07-0.16) at lag 5-8 weeks. The predicted scores performed with high accuracy in diagnosing the dengue outbreaks (96.3%). This study demonstrates the potential usefulness of a dengue prediction score scheme derived from complex statistical models for high-risk dengue clusters. We recommend a further study to examine the possibility of incorporating such a score scheme into the dengue early warning system in similar climate settings. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Regional risk associated with the transport of hazardous materials

OpenAIRE

Nardini, L.; Aparicio, L.; Bandoni, A.; Tonelli, S. M.

2003-01-01

An increasing concern over the level of risk associated with hazardous materials transportation has led international efforts to focus on risk assessment at regional level. Following this trend, the aim of this work is to review the latest procedures for analysing the regional risks resulting from hazardous materials transportation by means of road and rail. In particular, two methodologies are reviewed and discussed, a method recently developed at Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [1] an...

Methodical Approaches to Risk Management in a Regional Commercial Bank

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Vladimirovna Altukhova

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article presents the results of the research of the methodological and information infrastructure of the integrated risk management in a regional commercial bank. Within the study of the general development tendencies of the regional banking services market, the most significant risks for a regional bank are revealed. The analysis is carried out on the basis of the stress testing technique developed at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. It is based on a technique of dynamic economic and mathematical modeling with the application of information technologies. The created combination of the methodological and instrumental tools allows to carry out the dynamic scenario analysis of the activity of a commercial bank for the identification of potential risks and for the development of the strategy of financial management reducing the potential risks and leveling the consequences of their realization. The received tool allows during the computer test to watch the predicted dynamics of the condition of the key indicators of the activity of a regional commercial bank changing under the influence of the exogenous regulatory measures and instruments of bank management applied to decrease risk and at the same time to introduce adjustments in the perspective strategy of management. As the result of the analysis, the universal management model of the main bank risks in a regional commercial bank within three alternative scenarios is created. The software product allowing to develop and acquire the practical skills of the students in banking is developed. It also may help to develop the methodological support for the regulation of the organizational procedures of risk management in a regional commercial bank. The received software product may be used in a system of the improving the professional skills, and also for obtaining the expected data in a risk management system in a regional commercial bank.

Integrated, regional approach to risk management of industrial systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, S.

1992-01-01

This paper focuses on the following four main issues: (1) necessity for an integrated, regional approach to risk management of industrial systems; (2) principles of risk management; (3) integrated approach and overall methodology; and (4) implementation of risk management strategies on a regional basis. The U.N. Interagency project on risk management for large industrial areas, which is a pioneer type of international initiative for an integrated approach to risk management, is discussed in this context. Another encouraging activity for further development of overall methodologies for risk management is the ongoing project on the risk and safety of technical systems at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Aurich. The concept of integral risk management takes into account multidimensional factors including technical, economic, political, social, and ethical considerations to allow a well-balanced decision-making process

An economic assessment of population health risk in region

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Nina Vladimirovna Zaytseva

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a method of economic assessment of population health risk as a tool of life qualitymanagement and qualityof labor resources in the region (as factors of a region’s economic security. The technique is based on the cost of reducing the period of disability in the implementation of population health risk and takes into account the effects of risk prevention on levels of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation. The method intends to support making decisions on planning measures to reduce population health risk at the level of regions, territories and separate objects to assess their cost-performance, optimization of investment and operating costs to reduce the population health risk and sustainable development of the territory

Integration of industrial risk in regional policy management. Possibilities of evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Philippe; Pages, Pierre

1990-02-01

Since the responsibility for risk management depends more and more on regional factors, evaluation methods and management regulations are not developed enough. This study start from the fact that an important methods exist for evaluation transport of dangerous materials in cities, risk analysis and emergency plans related to classified installations, management of quality of water, 'chronic' industrial risks at local and regional level, probabilistic estimation for industrial plants. The objective is in fact to show what risk analysis could bring to the municipality, the city or the region [fr

High-Risk List

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

economy. The World Bank has said that “corruption creates an unfavorable business environment by undermining the operation efficiency of firms and... Bank Began as ‘Ponzi Scheme,’” 11/27/2012. 64 Independent Joint Anti-Corruption Monitoring and Evaluation Committee, Unfinished Business : The Follow...HIGH RISK AREA 7: Oversight 51 HIGH-RISK AREA 8: Strategy and Planning 55 CONCLUSION HIGH RISK LIST I JANUARY 11, 2017 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Risk-adaptive optimization: Selective boosting of high-risk tumor subvolumes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Yusung; Tome, Wolfgang A.

2006-01-01

Background and Purpose: A tumor subvolume-based, risk-adaptive optimization strategy is presented. Methods and Materials: Risk-adaptive optimization employs a biologic objective function instead of an objective function based on physical dose constraints. Using this biologic objective function, tumor control probability (TCP) is maximized for different tumor risk regions while at the same time minimizing normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for organs at risk. The feasibility of risk-adaptive optimization was investigated for a variety of tumor subvolume geometries, risk-levels, and slopes of the TCP curve. Furthermore, the impact of a correlation parameter, δ, between TCP and NTCP on risk-adaptive optimization was investigated. Results: Employing risk-adaptive optimization, it is possible in a prostate cancer model to increase the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) by up to 35.4 Gy in tumor subvolumes having the highest risk classification without increasing predicted normal tissue complications in organs at risk. For all tumor subvolume geometries investigated, we found that the EUD to high-risk tumor subvolumes could be increased significantly without increasing normal tissue complications above those expected from a treatment plan aiming for uniform dose coverage of the planning target volume. We furthermore found that the tumor subvolume with the highest risk classification had the largest influence on the design of the risk-adaptive dose distribution. The parameter δ had little effect on risk-adaptive optimization. However, the clinical parameters D 5 and γ 5 that represent the risk classification of tumor subvolumes had the largest impact on risk-adaptive optimization. Conclusions: On the whole, risk-adaptive optimization yields heterogeneous dose distributions that match the risk level distribution of different subvolumes within the tumor volume

Improving of State Regional Policy Mechanism at Risks` Conditions

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Roman Tarasovich Lukysha

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Modernization and innovatization were defined as the ways of improvement of the state policy of regional development from the safety perspective. They stipulate the following: 1 avoidance of the possible risks of the development of regions providing for the refusal of the unreliable programs and projects, unreasonable taking on credit and other kinds of loans; 2 risk sharing and convergence, as well as the reduction of their influence on the results of administrative activity; 3 determination and prevention of negative effect of risks. It was offered to carry out the improvement of the state policy of the development of regions with the help of the forming of stable organizational and informational network and system. It was specified that the difference between the latter is in the fact that the organizational and informational system concerns the financial side of administrative activity in regions. This means that it ensures the observance of the principle of transparency. While the organizational and informational network reflects its procedural side with the concept of openness being the basis of such activity. The improvement of the procedure of the organization of state administration of risks of the regional development was proved. It was established that organization of the state administration of the risks of regions development has a form of a chain: “provision of power and powers to the public authority → establishment of the new structural unit or addition of the existing administrative formations, approval of the functional regulations, official duties, etc. → competitive selection of the officials, their training, retraining, consulting → performance by them of the direct tasks on the detection and the prevention of the negative influence of dangers and threats.”

Towards a comprehensive assessment and framework for low and high flow water risks

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Motschmann, Alina; Huggel, Christian; Drenkhan, Fabian; León, Christian

2017-04-01

Driven by international organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the past years have seen a move from a vulnerability concept of climate change impacts towards a risk framework. Risk is now conceived at the intersection of climate-driven hazard and socioeconomic-driven vulnerability and exposure. The concept of risk so far has been mainly adopted for sudden-onset events. However, for slow-onset and cumulative climate change impacts such as changing water resources there is missing clarity and experience how to apply a risk framework. Research has hardly dealt with the challenge of how to integrate both low and high flow risks in a common framework. Comprehensive analyses of risks related to water resources considering climate change within multi-dimensional drivers across different scales are complex and often missing in climate-sensitive mountain regions where data scarcity and inconsistencies represent important limitations. Here we review existing vulnerability and risk assessments of low and high flow water conditions and identify critical conceptual and practical gaps. Based on this, we develop an integrated framework for low and high flow water risks which is applicable to both past and future conditions. The framework explicitly considers a water balance model simulating both water supply and demand on a daily basis. We test and apply this new framework in the highly glacierized Santa River catchment (SRC, Cordillera Blanca, Peru), representative for many developing mountain regions with both low and high flow water risks and poor data availability. In fact, in the SRC, both low and high flow hazards, such as droughts and floods, play a central role especially for agricultural, hydropower, domestic and mining use. During the dry season (austral winter) people are increasingly affected by water scarcity due to shrinking glaciers supplying melt water. On the other hand during the wet season (austral summer) high flow water

Management of Skin Cancer in the High-Risk Patient.

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Behan, James W; Sutton, Adam; Wysong, Ashley

2016-12-01

Skin cancer is the most common of human cancers and outnumbers all other types of cancer combined in the USA by over threefold. The majority of non-melanoma skin cancers are easily treated with surgery or locally destructive techniques performed under local anesthesia in the cost-effective outpatient setting. However, there is a subset of "high-risk" cases that prove challenging in terms of morbidity, mortality, adjuvant treatment required, as well as overall cost to the health care system. In our opinion, the term "high risk" when applied to skin cancer can mean one of three things: a high-risk tumor with aggressive histologic and/or clinical features with an elevated risk for local recurrence or regional/distant metastasis, a high-risk patient with the ongoing development of multiple skin cancers, and a high-risk patient based on immunosuppression. We have recently proposed classifying NMSC as a chronic disease in a certain subset of patients. Although no consensus definition exists for a chronic disease in medicine, there are three components that are present in most definitions: duration of at least 1 year, need for ongoing medical care, and functional impairment and/or alteration of activities of daily living (ADLs) and quality of life (QOL). Immunosuppression can refer to exogenous (organ or stem cell transplant patients,) or endogenous (HIV, leukemia, lymphoma, genodermatoses with DNA mismatch repair problems or other immunosuppression) causes. These patients are at risk for high-risk tumors and/or the development of multiple tumors.

High-Risk Stress Fractures: Diagnosis and Management.

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McInnis, Kelly C; Ramey, Lindsay N

2016-03-01

Stress fractures are common overuse injuries in athletes. They occur during periods of increased training without adequate rest, disrupting normal bone reparative mechanisms. There are a host of intrinsic and extrinsic factors, including biochemical and biomechanical, that put athletes at risk. In most stress fractures, the diagnosis is primarily clinical, with imaging indicated at times, and management focused on symptom-free relative rest with advancement of activity as tolerated. Overall, stress fractures in athletes have an excellent prognosis for return to sport, with little risk of complication. There is a subset of injuries that have a greater risk of fracture progression, delayed healing, and nonunion and are generally more challenging to treat with nonoperative care. Specific locations of high-risk stress fracture include the femoral neck (tension side), patella, anterior tibia, medial malleolus, talus, tarsal navicular, proximal fifth metatarsal, and great toe sesamoids. These sites share a characteristic region of high tensile load and low blood flow. High-risk stress fractures require a more aggressive approach to evaluation, with imaging often necessary, to confirm early and accurate diagnosis and initiate immediate treatment. Treatment consists of nonweight-bearing immobilization, often with a prolonged period away from sport, and a more methodic and careful reintroduction to athletic activity. These stress fractures may require surgical intervention. A high index of suspicion is essential to avoid delayed diagnosis and optimize outcomes in this subset of stress fractures. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

9 CFR 93.436 - Ruminants from regions of minimal risk for BSE.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... each animal's right hip, high on the tail-head (over the junction of the sacral and first cocygeal... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Ruminants from regions of minimal risk for BSE. 93.436 Section 93.436 Animals and Animal Products ANIMAL AND PLANT HEALTH INSPECTION SERVICE...

Disturbed functional connectivity of cortical activation during semantic discrimination in patients with schizophrenia and subjects at genetic high-risk.

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Li, Xiaobo; Branch, Craig A; Nierenberg, Jay; Delisi, Lynn E

2010-03-01

Schizophrenia has a strong genetic component that is relevant to the understanding of the pathophysiology of the syndrome. Thus, recent investigations have shifted from studies of diagnosed patients with schizophrenia to examining their unaffected relatives. Previous studies found that during language processing, relatives thought to be at genetic high-risk for the disorder exhibit aberrant functional activation in regions of language processing, specifically in the left inferior frontal gyrus (Broca's area). However, functional connectivity among the regions involved in language pathways is not well understood. In this study, we examined the functional connectivity between a seed located in Broca's area and the remainder of the brain during a visual lexical decision task, in 20 schizophrenia patients, 21 subjects at genetic high risk for the disorder and 21 healthy controls. Both the high-risk subjects and patients showed significantly reduced activation correlations between seed and regions related to visual language processing. Compared to the high-risk subjects, the schizophrenia patients showed even fewer regions that were correlated with the seed regions. These results suggest that there is aberrant functional connectivity within cortical language circuitry in high-risk subjects and patients with schizophrenia. Broca's area, which is one of the important regions for language processing in healthy controls, had a significantly reduced role in the high-risk subjects and patients with schizophrenia. Our findings are consistent with the existence of an underlying biological disturbance that begins in genetically at risk individuals and progresses to a greater extent in those who eventually develop schizophrenia.

Collateral Determinats In Bank Risk Mananagement: The Regional Case

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A. M. Karminsky

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Regional banks are struggling with significant obstacles in the modern Russian economy. Among them are strong competition with major big banks, strong resource restrictions, tightening the Bank of Russia’s requirements, and quite rapid expansion of financial technologies. Thus, the reduction of regional banks occurs, that produces both a negative impact on the development of small and medium enterprises (SMEs and challenges for balanced competition on the Russian market. Basically, these banks provide the settlement of region’s social and economic problems while maintaining local companies and enterprises. Collateral, as a source for losses covering, became the essential element of credit risk management in banks. Providing lenders to implement such instruments, it helps to reduce bank losses under borrower’s default. The purpose of the article relates to revealing of collateral determinants with higher impact on bank risk with the application of empirical methods (including regional level. This study is based on linear regression models evaluated by the least square method. Private data of secured small and medium business loans is used. This article presents LTV (loan-to-value as a major collateral determinant. The empirical evidence of interlinkage between collateral requirements, by the means of LTV, and risk premium is provided for loan portfolio of Russian regional banks. The hypothesis that LTV conversely correlates with risk premium is statistically proved.

High prevalence of suicide risk in people living with HIV: who is at higher risk?

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Passos, Susane Müller Klug; Souza, Luciano Dias de Mattos; Spessato, Bárbara Coiro

2014-01-01

A cross-sectional study was developed to evaluate suicide risk and associated factors in HIV/AIDS patients at a regional reference center for the treatment of HIV/AIDS in southern Brazil. We assessed 211 patients in regard to suicide risk, clinical and sociodemographic characteristics, drug use, depression, and anxiety. Suicide risk was assessed with Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview, Module C. Multivariate analysis was performed using Poisson regression. Of the total sample, 34.1% were at risk of suicide. In the multivariate analysis, the following variables were independently associated with suicide risk: female gender; age up to 47 years; unemployment; indicative of anxiety; indicative of depression; and abuse or addiction on psychoactive substances. Suicide risk is high in this population. Psychosocial factors should be included in the physical and clinical evaluation, given their strong association with suicide risk.

Northeast Regional Cancer Institute's Cancer Surveillance and Risk Factor Program

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Lesko, Samuel M.

2007-07-31

OBJECTIVES The Northeast Regional Cancer Institute is conducting a program of ongoing epidemiologic research to address cancer disparities in northeast Pennsylvania. Of particular concern are disparities in the incidence of, stage at diagnosis, and mortality from colorectal cancer. In northeast Pennsylvania, age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for colorectal cancer are higher, and a significantly smaller proportion of new colorectal cancer cases are diagnosed with local stage disease than is observed in comparable national data. Further, estimates of the prevalence of colorectal cancer screening in northeast Pennsylvania are lower than the US average. The Northeast Regional Cancer Institute’s research program supports surveillance of common cancers, investigations of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors, and the development of resources to further cancer research in this community. This project has the following specific objectives: I. To conduct cancer surveillance in northeast Pennsylvania. a. To monitor incidence and mortality for all common cancers, and colorectal cancer, in particular, and b. To document changes in the stage at diagnosis of colorectal cancer in this high-risk, underserved community. II. To conduct a population-based study of cancer risk factors and screening behavior in a six county region of northeast Pennsylvania. a. To monitor and document changes in colorectal cancer screening rates, and b. To document the prevalence of cancer risk factors (especially factors that increase the risk of colorectal cancer) and to identify those risk factors that are unusually common in this community. APPROACH Cancer surveillance was conducted using data from the Northeast Regional Cancer Institute’s population-based Regional Cancer Registry, the Pennsylvania Cancer Registry, and NCI’s SEER program. For common cancers, incidence and mortality were examined by county within the region and compared to data for similar populations in the US

Tiny Turtles Purchased at Pet Stores are a Potential High Risk for Salmonella Human Infection in the Valencian Region, Eastern Spain.

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Marin, Clara; Vega, Santiago; Marco-Jiménez, Francisco

2016-07-01

Turtles may be considered unsafe pets, particularly in households with children. This study aimed to assess Salmonella carriage by turtles in pet stores and in private ownership to inform the public of the potential health risk, enabling informed choices around pet selection. During the period between September and October 2013, 24 pet stores and 96 private owners were sampled in the Valencian Region (Eastern Spain). Salmonella identification procedure was based on ISO 6579: 2002 recommendations (Annex D). Salmonella strains were serotyped in accordance with Kauffman-White-Le-Minor technique. The rate of isolation of Salmonella was very high from pet store samples (75.0% ± 8.8%) and moderate for private owners (29.0% ± 4.6%). Serotyping revealed 18 different serotypes among two Salmonella enterica subspecies: S. enterica subsp. enterica and S. enterica subsp. diarizonae. Most frequently isolated serotypes were Salmonella Typhimurium (39.5%, 17/43) and Salmonella Pomona (9.3%, 4/43). Serotypes identified have previously been reported in turtles, and child Salmonella infections associate with pet turtle exposure. The present study clearly demonstrates that turtles in pet stores, as well as in private owners, could be a direct or indirect source of a high risk of human Salmonella infections. In addition, pet stores should advise their customers of the potential risks associated with reptile ownership.

Regional differences in self-reported screening, prevalence and management of cardiovascular risk factors in Switzerland

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2012-01-01

Background In Switzerland, health policies are decided at the local level, but little is known regarding their impact on the screening and management of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs). We thus aimed at assessing geographical levels of CVRFs in Switzerland. Methods Swiss Health Survey for 2007 (N = 17,879). Seven administrative regions were defined: West (Leman), West-Central (Mittelland), Zurich, South (Ticino), North-West, East and Central Switzerland. Obesity, smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes prevalence, treatment and screening within the last 12 months were assessed by interview. Results After multivariate adjustment for age, gender, educational level, marital status and Swiss citizenship, no significant differences were found between regions regarding prevalence of obesity or current smoking. Similarly, no differences were found regarding hypertension screening and prevalence. Two thirds of subjects who had been told they had high blood pressure were treated, the lowest treatment rates being found in East Switzerland: odds-ratio and [95% confidence interval] 0.65 [0.50-0.85]. Screening for hypercholesterolemia was more frequently reported in French (Leman) and Italian (Ticino) speaking regions. Four out of ten participants who had been told they had high cholesterol levels were treated and the lowest treatment rates were found in German-speaking regions. Screening for diabetes was higher in Ticino (1.24 [1.09 - 1.42]). Six out of ten participants who had been told they had diabetes were treated, the lowest treatment rates were found for German-speaking regions. Conclusions In Switzerland, cardiovascular risk factor screening and management differ between regions and these differences cannot be accounted for by differences in populations' characteristics. Management of most cardiovascular risk factors could be improved. PMID:22452881

Expanding pedestrian injury risk to the body region level: how to model passive safety systems in pedestrian injury risk functions.

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Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko; Achmus, Stefanie

2015-01-01

Assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) plays a crucial role in accident research. A common way to evaluate the effectiveness of new systems is to determine the potentials for injury severity reduction. Because injury risk functions describe the probability of an injury of a given severity conditional on a technical accident severity (closing speed, delta V, barrier equivalent speed, etc.), they are predestined for such evaluations. Recent work has stated an approach on how to model the pedestrian injury risk in pedestrian-to-passenger car accidents as a family of functions. This approach gave explicit and easily interpretable formulae for the injury risk conditional on the closing speed of the car. These results are extended to injury risk functions for pedestrian body regions. Starting with a double-checked German In-depth Accident Study (GIDAS) pedestrian-to-car accident data set (N = 444) and a functional-anatomical definition of the body regions, investigations on the influence of specific body regions on the overall injury severity will be presented. As the measure of injury severity, the ISSx, a rescaled version of the well-known Injury Severity Score (ISS), was used. Though traditional ISS is computed by summation of the squares of the 3 most severe injured body regions, ISSx is computed by the summation of the exponentials of the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) severities of the 3 most severely injured body regions. The exponentials used are scaled to fit the ISS range of values between 0 and 75. Three body regions (head/face/neck, thorax, hip/legs) clearly dominated abdominal and upper extremity injuries; that is, the latter 2 body regions had no influence at all on the overall injury risk over the range of technical accident severities. Thus, the ISSx is well described by use of the injury codes from the same body regions for any pedestrian injury severity. As a mathematical consequence, the ISSx becomes explicitly

Tourism sector preparedness in zones with a high seismic risk: Case study of the Capital Region of Japan

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Lihui, W.; Wang, D.

2017-12-01

Japan is a country highly vulnerable to natural disasters, especially earthquakes. Tourism, as a strategic industry in Japan, is especially vulnerable to destructive earthquake disasters owing to the characteristics of vulnerability, sensitivity and substitutability. Here we aim to provide theoretical understanding of the perception and responses of tourism managers towards damaging disasters in tourism destinations with high seismic risks. We conducted surveys among the mangers of tourism businesses in the capital area of Japan in 2014 and applied structural equation modeling techniques to empirically test the proposed model with four latent variables, which are risk perception, threat knowledge, disaster preparedness and earthquake preparedness. Our results show that threat knowledge affects risk perception and disaster preparedness positively. In addition, disaster preparedness positively affects earthquake preparedness. However, the proposed paths from risk perception to disaster preparedness, risk perception to earthquake preparedness, and threat knowledge to earthquake preparedness were not statistically significant. Our results may provide references for policymakers in promoting crisis planning in tourism destination with high seismic risks.

Social and Psychological Factors Related to Risk of Eating Disorders Among High School Girls.

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Alfoukha, Marwa M; Hamdan-Mansour, Ayman M; Banihani, Manar Ali

2017-01-01

Prevalence of eating disorders (EDs) has increased among adolescents in Arabic and Western countries. The purposes are to identify the risk of ED and psychosocial correlates of risk of ED among high school girls in Jordan. The researchers employed a cross-sectional, correlational design using 799 high school girls from governmental and private schools in the central region of Jordan. The results indicate that prevalence of the risk of ED was 12%. The risk of ED had significant and positive correlation with body shape dissatisfaction, self-esteem, psychological distress, and pressure from family, peers, and media ( p self-esteem, negative peer pressure, and being young were significant predictors of the risk of EDs. Risk of ED is highly prevalent among high school girls, and school nurses need to adopt a model of care addressing the risk factors while caring for high school girls.

Context and Cardiovascular Risk Modification in Two Regions of Ontario, Canada: A Photo Elicitation Study

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Renée Chevrier-Lamoureux

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Cardiovascular diseases, which include coronary heart diseases (CHD, remain the leading cause of death in Canada and other industrialized countries. This qualitative study used photo-elicitation, focus groups and in-depth interviews to understand health behaviour change from the perspectives of 38 people who were aware of their high risk for CHD and had received information about cardiovascular risk modification while participating in a larger intervention study. Participants were drawn from two selected regions: Sudbury and District (northern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area (southern Ontario. Analysis drew on concepts of place and space to capture the complex interplay between geographic location, sociodemographic position, and people‟s efforts to understand and modify their risk for CHD. Three major sites of difference and ambiguity emerged: 1 place and access to health resources; 2 time and food culture; and 3 itineraries or travels through multiple locations. All participants reported difficulties in learning and adhering to new lifestyle patterns, but access to supportive health resources was different in the two regions. Even within regions, subgroups experienced different patterns of constraint and advantage. In each region, “fast” food and traditional foods were entrenched within different temporal and social meanings. Finally, different and shifting strategies for risk modification were required at various points during daily and seasonal travels through neighbourhoods, to workplaces, or on vacation. Thus health education for CHD risk modification should be place-specific and tailored to the needs and resources of specific communities.

A regional-scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations

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O'Brien, Gordon C.; Dickens, Chris; Hines, Eleanor; Wepener, Victor; Stassen, Retha; Quayle, Leo; Fouchy, Kelly; MacKenzie, James; Graham, P. Mark; Landis, Wayne G.

2018-02-01

Environmental flow (E-flow) frameworks advocate holistic, regional-scale, probabilistic E-flow assessments that consider flow and non-flow drivers of change in a socio-ecological context as best practice. Regional-scale ecological risk assessments of multiple stressors to social and ecological endpoints, which address ecosystem dynamism, have been undertaken internationally at different spatial scales using the relative-risk model since the mid-1990s. With the recent incorporation of Bayesian belief networks into the relative-risk model, a robust regional-scale ecological risk assessment approach is available that can contribute to achieving the best practice recommendations of E-flow frameworks. PROBFLO is a holistic E-flow assessment method that incorporates the relative-risk model and Bayesian belief networks (BN-RRM) into a transparent probabilistic modelling tool that addresses uncertainty explicitly. PROBFLO has been developed to evaluate the socio-ecological consequences of historical, current and future water resource use scenarios and generate E-flow requirements on regional spatial scales. The approach has been implemented in two regional-scale case studies in Africa where its flexibility and functionality has been demonstrated. In both case studies the evidence-based outcomes facilitated informed environmental management decision making, with trade-off considerations in the context of social and ecological aspirations. This paper presents the PROBFLO approach as applied to the Senqu River catchment in Lesotho and further developments and application in the Mara River catchment in Kenya and Tanzania. The 10 BN-RRM procedural steps incorporated in PROBFLO are demonstrated with examples from both case studies. PROBFLO can contribute to the adaptive management of water resources and contribute to the allocation of resources for sustainable use of resources and address protection requirements.

Regional probabilistic nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment by integration of mathematical modelling land GIS-analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rigina, O.; Baklanov, A.

2002-01-01

The Kola Peninsula, Russian Arctic exceeds all other regions in the world in the number of nuclear reactors. The study was aimed at estimating possible radiation risks to the population in the Nordic countries in case of a severe accident in the Kola Peninsula. A new approach based on probabilistic analysis of modelled possible pathways of radionuclide transport and precipitation was developed. For the general population, Finland is at most risk with respect to the Kola NPP, because of: high population density or proximity to the radiation-risk sites and relatively high probability of an airflow trajectory there, and precipitation. After considering the critical group, northern counties in Norway, Finland and Sweden appear to be most vulnerable. (au)

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Murcia Region, a southern European Mediterranean area with low cardiovascular risk and high obesity

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Huerta José M

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Metabolic syndrome (MS is associated with subsequent appearance of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. As compared to other Spanish regions, Murcia (southern Spain registers increased obesity as well as cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of MS and its components, awareness of obesity as a health risk and associated lifestyles. Methods A population-based, cross-sectional study was conducted in 2003, covering a sample of 1555 individuals 20 years and over. MS was defined according to the Revised National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (R-ATPIII, International Diabetes Federation (IDF and Joint Interim Statement (JIS criteria. Both low (94/80 and high (102/88 waist circumference (WC thresholds were considered. Results Prevalence of MS was 27.2% (95%CI: 25.2-29.2, 32.2% (95%CI: 30.1-34.3 and 33.2% (95%CI: 31.2-35.3 according to the R-ATPIII, IDF and JIS94/80 respectively. It increased with age until reaching 52.6% (R-ATPIII or 60.3% (JIS94/80 among persons aged 70 years and over, and was higher in persons with little or no formal education (51.7% R-ATPIII, 57.3% JIS94/80. The most common risk factors were hypertension (46.6% and central obesity (40.7% and 66.1% according to high and low WC cut-off points respectively. Although most persons were aware that obesity increased health risks, regular exercise was very unusual (13.0% centrally obese, 27.2% non-centrally obese. Adherence to dietary recommendations was similar among centrally obese and non-centrally obese subjects. Conclusions Prevalence of MS is high in our population, is comparable to that found in northern Europe and varies with the definition used. Adherence to preventive recommendations and to adequate weight promotion is very low. In the absence of a specific treatment for MS, integrated intervention based on a sustained increase in physical activity and changes in diet should be

Danger ahead: the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2015.

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2018-05-01

The Eastern Mediterranean Region faces several health challenges at a difficult time with wars, unrest, and economic change. We used the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the Eastern Mediterranean Region from 1990 to 2015. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of death in the region in 2015, followed by cerebrovascular disease. Changes in total deaths ranged from a reduction of 25% for diarrheal diseases to an increase of about 42% for diabetes and tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer. Collective violence and legal intervention increased by 850% during the time period. Diet was the leading risk factor for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for men compared to maternal malnutrition for females. Childhood undernutrition was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 1990 and 2005, but the second in 2015 after high blood pressure. Our study shows that the region is facing several health challenges and calls for global efforts to stabilise the region and to address the current and future burden of disease.

Risk assessment of water pollution sources based on an integrated k-means clustering and set pair analysis method in the region of Shiyan, China.

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Li, Chunhui; Sun, Lian; Jia, Junxiang; Cai, Yanpeng; Wang, Xuan

2016-07-01

Source water areas are facing many potential water pollution risks. Risk assessment is an effective method to evaluate such risks. In this paper an integrated model based on k-means clustering analysis and set pair analysis was established aiming at evaluating the risks associated with water pollution in source water areas, in which the weights of indicators were determined through the entropy weight method. Then the proposed model was applied to assess water pollution risks in the region of Shiyan in which China's key source water area Danjiangkou Reservoir for the water source of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is located. The results showed that eleven sources with relative high risk value were identified. At the regional scale, Shiyan City and Danjiangkou City would have a high risk value in term of the industrial discharge. Comparatively, Danjiangkou City and Yunxian County would have a high risk value in terms of agricultural pollution. Overall, the risk values of north regions close to the main stream and reservoir of the region of Shiyan were higher than that in the south. The results of risk level indicated that five sources were in lower risk level (i.e., level II), two in moderate risk level (i.e., level III), one in higher risk level (i.e., level IV) and three in highest risk level (i.e., level V). Also risks of industrial discharge are higher than that of the agricultural sector. It is thus essential to manage the pillar industry of the region of Shiyan and certain agricultural companies in the vicinity of the reservoir to reduce water pollution risks of source water areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk Diagnostics and Management for Welfare in Regions (in the Example of the Ural Federal District

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Aleksandr Anatolyevich Kuklin

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Welfare is one of the indicators that characterizes the functioning of socio-economic system at any level, which is influenced by many factors. It increases the importance of necessity of choice, estimating risks that affect welfare, and managing their influence. The authors view welfare in the region from two viewpoints: an individual and a territory, which implies definition and estimation of risks for each of them. The goal of the study is to estimate the risks to welfare of an individual and a territory, which means solving the following tasks: 1 defining the category ‘risk to welfare of an individual and a territory’; 2 estimating integral risks for the Ural Federal District’s territories; 3 estimating the probability of integral risk reaching critical zone. The methods of study used by the authors: indicative analysis, integration of objective function through Monte Carlo statistical trials method. The object of the study is the regions of the Ural Federal District (subjects of the Russian Federation, timeframe – 2001–2016, information mass – official data of Russian Federal State Statistics Service. Based on the calculations, the authors conclude the following: all regions of the Ural Federal District are in the high-risk zone and have low probability of reaching critical risk zone. The results can be used in managing the risks through development of roadmaps on minimization of risk and probability of aggravation. The proposed measures allow decreasing the integral risk and increasing welfare level of an individual and a territory

A Regional Decision Support Scheme for Pest Risk Analysis in Southeast Asia.

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Soliman, T; MacLeod, A; Mumford, J D; Nghiem, T P L; Tan, H T W; Papworth, S K; Corlett, R T; Carrasco, L R

2016-05-01

A key justification to support plant health regulations is the ability of quarantine services to conduct pest risk analyses (PRA). Despite the supranational nature of biological invasions and the close proximity and connectivity of Southeast Asian countries, PRAs are conducted at the national level. Furthermore, some countries have limited experience in the development of PRAs, which may result in inadequate phytosanitary responses that put their plant resources at risk to pests vectored via international trade. We review existing decision support schemes for PRAs and, following international standards for phytosanitary measures, propose new methods that adapt existing practices to suit the unique characteristics of Southeast Asia. Using a formal written expert elicitation survey, a panel of regional scientific experts was asked to identify and rate unique traits of Southeast Asia with respect to PRA. Subsequently, an expert elicitation workshop with plant protection officials was conducted to verify the potential applicability of the developed methods. Rich biodiversity, shortage of trained personnel, social vulnerability, tropical climate, agriculture-dependent economies, high rates of land-use change, and difficulties in implementing risk management options were identified as challenging Southeast Asian traits. The developed methods emphasize local Southeast Asian conditions and could help support authorities responsible for carrying out PRAs within the region. These methods could also facilitate the creation of other PRA schemes in low- and middle-income tropical countries. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Stephen S; Vos, Theo; Flaxman, Abraham D; Danaei, Goodarz; Shibuya, Kenji; Adair-Rohani, Heather; Amann, Markus; Anderson, H Ross; Andrews, Kathryn G; Aryee, Martin; Atkinson, Charles; Bacchus, Loraine J; Bahalim, Adil N; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balmes, John; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; Baxter, Amanda; Bell, Michelle L; Blore, Jed D; Blyth, Fiona; Bonner, Carissa; Borges, Guilherme; Bourne, Rupert; Boussinesq, Michel; Brauer, Michael; Brooks, Peter; Bruce, Nigel G; Brunekreef, Bert; Bryan-Hancock, Claire; Bucello, Chiara; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bull, Fiona; Burnett, Richard T; Byers, Tim E; Calabria, Bianca; Carapetis, Jonathan; Carnahan, Emily; Chafe, Zoe; Charlson, Fiona; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Jian Shen; Cheng, Andrew Tai-Ann; Child, Jennifer Christine; Cohen, Aaron; Colson, K Ellicott; Cowie, Benjamin C; Darby, Sarah; Darling, Susan; Davis, Adrian; Degenhardt, Louisa; Dentener, Frank; Des Jarlais, Don C; Devries, Karen; Dherani, Mukesh; Ding, Eric L; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim; Edmond, Karen; Ali, Suad Eltahir; Engell, Rebecca E; Erwin, Patricia J; Fahimi, Saman; Falder, Gail; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferrari, Alize; Finucane, Mariel M; Flaxman, Seth; Fowkes, Francis Gerry R; Freedman, Greg; Freeman, Michael K; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Ghosh, Santu; Giovannucci, Edward; Gmel, Gerhard; Graham, Kathryn; Grainger, Rebecca; Grant, Bridget; Gunnell, David; Gutierrez, Hialy R; Hall, Wayne; Hoek, Hans W; Hogan, Anthony; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian; Hu, Howard; Hubbell, Bryan J; Hutchings, Sally J; Ibeanusi, Sydney E; Jacklyn, Gemma L; Jasrasaria, Rashmi; Jonas, Jost B; Kan, Haidong; Kanis, John A; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Kawakami, Norito; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khoo, Jon-Paul; Kok, Cindy; Laden, Francine; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lan, Qing; Lathlean, Tim; Leasher, Janet L; Leigh, James; Li, Yang; Lin, John Kent; Lipshultz, Steven E; London, Stephanie; Lozano, Rafael; Lu, Yuan; Mak, Joelle; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mallinger, Leslie; Marcenes, Wagner; March, Lyn; Marks, Robin; Martin, Randall; McGale, Paul; McGrath, John; Mehta, Sumi; Mensah, George A; Merriman, Tony R; Micha, Renata; Michaud, Catherine; Mishra, Vinod; Mohd Hanafiah, Khayriyyah; Mokdad, Ali A; Morawska, Lidia; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Murphy, Tasha; Naghavi, Mohsen; Neal, Bruce; Nelson, Paul K; Nolla, Joan Miquel; Norman, Rosana; Olives, Casey; Omer, Saad B; Orchard, Jessica; Osborne, Richard; Ostro, Bart; Page, Andrew; Pandey, Kiran D; Parry, Charles D H; Passmore, Erin; Patra, Jayadeep; Pearce, Neil; Pelizzari, Pamela M; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Pope, Dan; Pope, C Arden; Powles, John; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Rehfuess, Eva A; Rehm, Jürgen T; Ritz, Beate; Rivara, Frederick P; Roberts, Thomas; Robinson, Carolyn; Rodriguez-Portales, Jose A; Romieu, Isabelle; Room, Robin; Rosenfeld, Lisa C; Roy, Ananya; Rushton, Lesley; Salomon, Joshua A; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sanman, Ella; Sapkota, Amir; Seedat, Soraya; Shi, Peilin; Shield, Kevin; Shivakoti, Rupak; Singh, Gitanjali M; Sleet, David A; Smith, Emma; Smith, Kirk R; Stapelberg, Nicolas J C; Steenland, Kyle; Stöckl, Heidi; Stovner, Lars Jacob; Straif, Kurt; Straney, Lahn; Thurston, George D; Tran, Jimmy H; Van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Veerman, J Lennert; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Weintraub, Robert; Weissman, Myrna M; White, Richard A; Whiteford, Harvey; Wiersma, Steven T; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Williams, Warwick; Wilson, Nicholas; Woolf, Anthony D; Yip, Paul; Zielinski, Jan M; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher J L; Ezzati, Majid; AlMazroa, Mohammad A; Memish, Ziad A

2012-12-15

Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved

Assessing Watershed-Wildfire Risks on National Forest System Lands in the Rocky Mountain Region of the United States

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Jessica R. Haas

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Wildfires can cause significant negative impacts to water quality with resultant consequences for the environment and human health and safety, as well as incurring substantial rehabilitation and water treatment costs. In this paper we will illustrate how state-of-the-art wildfire simulation modeling and geospatial risk assessment methods can be brought to bear to identify and prioritize at-risk watersheds for risk mitigation treatments, in both pre-fire and post-fire planning contexts. Risk assessment results can be particularly useful for prioritizing management of hazardous fuels to lessen the severity and likely impacts of future wildfires, where budgetary and other constraints limit the amount of area that can be treated. Specifically we generate spatially resolved estimates of wildfire likelihood and intensity, and couple that information with spatial data on watershed location and watershed erosion potential to quantify watershed exposure and risk. For a case study location we focus on National Forest System lands in the Rocky Mountain Region of the United States. The Region houses numerous watersheds that are critically important to drinking water supplies and that have been impacted or threatened by large wildfires in recent years. Assessment results are the culmination of a broader multi-year science-management partnership intended to have direct bearing on wildfire management decision processes in the Region. Our results suggest substantial variation in the exposure of and likely effects to highly valued watersheds throughout the Region, which carry significant implications for prioritization. In particular we identified the San Juan National Forest as having the highest concentration of at-risk highly valued watersheds, as well as the greatest amount of risk that can be mitigated via hazardous fuel reduction treatments. To conclude we describe future opportunities and challenges for management of wildfire-watershed interactions.

Brachytherapy boost and cancer-specific mortality in favorable high-risk versus other high-risk prostate cancer

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Vinayak Muralidhar

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Purpose : Recent retrospective data suggest that brachytherapy (BT boost may confer a cancer-specific survival benefit in radiation-managed high-risk prostate cancer. We sought to determine whether this survival benefit would extend to the recently defined favorable high-risk subgroup of prostate cancer patients (T1c, Gleason 4 + 4 = 8, PSA 20 ng/ml. Material and methods: We identified 45,078 patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database with cT1c-T3aN0M0 intermediate- to high-risk prostate cancer diagnosed 2004-2011 treated with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT only or EBRT plus BT. We used multivariable competing risks regression to determine differences in the rate of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM after EBRT + BT or EBRT alone in patients with intermediate-risk, favorable high-risk, or other high-risk disease after adjusting for demographic and clinical factors. Results : EBRT + BT was not associated with an improvement in 5-year PCSM compared to EBRT alone among patients with favorable high-risk disease (1.6% vs. 1.8%; adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.21-1.52, p = 0.258, and intermediate-risk disease (0.8% vs. 1.0%, AHR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.59-1.16, p = 0.270. Others with high-risk disease had significantly lower 5-year PCSM when treated with EBRT + BT compared with EBRT alone (3.9% vs. 5.3%; AHR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.55-0.95; p = 0.022. Conclusions : Brachytherapy boost is associated with a decreased rate of PCSM in some men with high-risk prostate cancer but not among patients with favorable high-risk disease. Our results suggest that the recently-defined “favorable high-risk” category may be used to personalize therapy for men with high-risk disease.

Treatment recommendations in patients diagnosed with high-risk cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veness, M.J.

2005-01-01

Non-melanoma cutaneous cancers occur at an epidemic rate in Australia. With an ageing population, more Australians will develop these cancers and at an increasing rate. In the majority of cases local treatment is highly curative. However, a subset of the population will be diagnosed with a high-risk cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma. These can be defined as patients at risk of having subclinical metastases to regional lymph nodes based on unfavourable primary lesion features (including inadequately excised and recurrent lesions), patients with metastatic squamous cell carcinoma to regional lymph nodes, and squamous cell carcinoma in immunosuppressed patients. The mortality and morbidity associated with high-risk cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma is usually as a consequence of uncontrolled metastatic nodal disease and, to a lesser extent, distant metastases. Radiotherapy has an essential role in treating these patients and in many cases the addition of adjuvant radiotherapy may be life saving. It is therefore important that all clinicians treating skin cancers have an understanding and awareness of the optimal approach to these patients. The aim of this article is to present treatment recommendations based on an overview of the current published literature. Copyright (2005) Blackwell Science Pty Ltd

Seismic Hazard and risk assessment for Romania -Bulgaria cross-border region

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Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Alexandrova, Irena; Vaseva, Elena; Trifonova, Petya; Raykova, Plamena

2016-04-01

Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are steadily increasing as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The assessment of the seismic hazard and risk is particularly important, because it provides valuable information for seismic safety and disaster mitigation, and it supports decision making for the benefit of society. Romania and Bulgaria, situated in the Balkan Region as a part of the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt, are characterized by high seismicity, and are exposed to a high seismic risk. Over the centuries, both countries have experienced strong earthquakes. The cross-border region encompassing the northern Bulgaria and southern Romania is a territory prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The area is significantly affected by earthquakes occurred in both countries, on the one hand the events generated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source in Romania, and on the other hand by the crustal seismicity originated in the seismic sources: Shabla (SHB), Dulovo, Gorna Orjahovitza (GO) in Bulgaria. The Vrancea seismogenic zone of Romania is a very peculiar seismic source, often described as unique in the world, and it represents a major concern for most of the northern part of Bulgaria as well. In the present study the seismic hazard for Romania-Bulgaria cross-border region on the basis of integrated basic geo-datasets is assessed. The hazard results are obtained by applying two alternative approaches - probabilistic and deterministic. The MSK64 intensity (MSK64 scale is practically equal to the new EMS98) is used as output parameter for the hazard maps. We prefer to use here the macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, because it is directly related to the degree of damages and, moreover, the epicentral intensity is the original

Karst risk assessment for engineering in Nizhny Novgorod region, Russia

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Tolmachev Vladimir

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Federal Standards of the Russian include the requirement of mandatory assessment of the risks induced by natural processes in order to make sure their values do not exceed acceptable limits. To meet the requirement a number of karst risk assessment methods have been developed for the regions of the country where the most significant hazard is presented by karst sinkholes. For this particular application karst risk is understood as specific probability of sinkhole development on a unit area per a unit time span with account of probable economic, social and environmental components of damage. The probability of sinkhole development is evaluated by specialists in engineering karstology and designers. They make use of the acceptable data on the environmental conditions and apply stochastic laws of sinkhole development in time and space, alongside with focusing on all other relevant specificity of the building or facility to be built. Acceptable limits of karst risks should be specified by a multidisciplinary team including designers, lawyers, economists, insurers, environmentalists, engineering karstologists and other specialists on the basis of their expert knowledge. It has been demonstrated that a ratio between predicted and acceptable karst risk values can serve a practically meaningful karst risk level indicator for the purposes of building on karst. This ratio can be used with a rather high degree of objectiveness to develop a programme of antikarst activities during both facilities construction and operation.

High resolution fire risk mapping in Italy

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Fiorucci, Paolo; Biondi, Guido; Campo, Lorenzo; D'Andrea, Mirko

2014-05-01

The high topographic and vegetation heterogeneity makes Italy vulnerable to forest fires both in the summer and in winter. In particular, northern regions are predominantly characterized by a winter fire regime, mainly due to frequent extremely dry winds from the north, while southern and central regions and the large islands are characterized by a severe summer fire regime, because of the higher temperatures and prolonged lack of precipitation. The threat of wildfires in Italy is not confined to wooded areas as they extend to agricultural areas and urban-forest interface areas. The agricultural and rural areas, in the last century, have been gradually abandoned, especially in areas with complex topography. Many of these areas were subject to reforestation, leading to the spread of pioneer species mainly represented by Mediterranean conifer, which are highly vulnerable to fire. Because of the frequent spread of fire, these areas are limited to the early successional stages, consisting mainly of shrub vegetation; its survival in the competition with the climax species being ensured by the spread of fire itself. Due to the frequency of fire ignition — almost entirely man caused — the time between fires on the same area is at least an order of magnitude less than the time that would allow the establishment of forest climax species far less vulnerable to fire. In view of the limited availability of fire risk management resources, most of which are used in the management of national and regional air services, it is necessary to precisely identify the areas most vulnerable to fire risk. The few resources available can thus be used on a yearly basis to mitigate problems in the areas at highest risk by defining a program of forest management interventions, which is expected to make a significant contribution to the problem in a few years' time. The goal of such detailed planning is to dramatically reduce the costs associated with water bombers fleet management and fire

Targeted cardiopulmonary resuscitation training focused on the family members of high-risk patients at a regional medical center: A comparison between family members of high-risk and no-risk patients.

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Han, Kap Su; Lee, Ji Sung; Kim, Su Jin; Lee, Sung Woo

2018-05-01

We developed a hospital-based cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) training model focused on the target population (family members of patients with potential risks for cardiac arrest) and compared the outcome of CPR training between target and non-target populations for validity. Family members of patients in training were divided into three groups on the basis of patients' diseases, as follows: 1) the cardio-specific (CS) risk group, including family members of patients with cardiac disease at risk of cardiac arrest; 2) the cardiovascular (CV) risk group, including family members of patients with risk factors for cardiovascular disease; and 3) the no-risk group. Pre- and posttraining surveys and skill tests as well as a post-training 3-month telephone survey were conducted. Educational outcomes were analyzed. A total of 203 family members were enrolled into 21 CPR training classes. The CS group (n=88) included elderly persons and housewives with a lower level of education compared with the CV (n=79) and no-risk groups (n=36). The CS group was motivated by healthcare professionals and participated in the training course. The CS, CV, and no-risk groups showed improvements in knowledge, willingness to perform CPR, and skills. Despite the older age and lower level of education in the CS group, the effects of education were similar to those in the other groups. A high rate of response and secondary propagation of CPR training were observed in the CS group. Family members of patients with heart disease could be an appropriate target population for CPR training, particularly in terms of recruitment and secondary propagation. Targeted intervention may be an effective training strategy to improve bystander CPR rates.

Disaster risk reduction in the Omusati and Oshana regions of Namibia

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Elina Amadhila

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Namibia often experiences heavy rains in the north and north-eastern parts of the country, which results in severe flooding. For this reason, the country has endorsed the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA which seeks to develop the resilience of nations and communities to disasters and to assist countries to move away from the approach of emergency response to one of integrated disaster risk reduction. The aim of this article is to assess the resilience of the communities within the identified regions. A quantitative questionnaire was designed to assess people at risk of disaster related impacts. The questionnaire used 20 indicators to measure the level of progress at local level and how local governance plays a role in the mitigation and management of disasters. Analysis of data was done on a limited number of descriptors such as age, gender and local governance involvement, amongst others. There was generally a very high perception of threat (38% in the study regions. Women perceived threat more accurately (mean = 4.09 than men. The community perceived threat more accurately than local government and civil society (mean = 4.08.

fMRI investigation of response inhibition, emotion, impulsivity, and clinical high-risk behaviour in adolescents

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Matthew R G Brown

2015-09-01

Full Text Available High-risk behaviour in adolescents is associated with injury, mental health problems, and poor outcomes in later life. Improved understanding of the neurobiology of high-risk behaviour and impulsivity shows promise for informing clinical treatment and prevention as well as policy to better address high-risk behaviour. We recruited 21 adolescents (age 14-17 with a wide range of high-risk behaviour tendencies, including medically high-risk participants recruited from psychiatric clinics. Risk tendencies were assessed using the Adolescent Risk Behaviour Screen (ARBS. ARBS risk scores correlated highly (0.78 with impulsivity scores from the Barratt Impulsivity scale (BIS. Participants underwent 4.7 Tesla functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI while performing an emotional Go/NoGo task. This task presented an aversive or neutral distractor image simultaneously with each Go or NoGo stimulus. Risk behaviour and impulsivity tendencies exhibited similar but not identical associations with fMRI activation patterns in prefrontal brain regions. We interpret these results as reflecting differences in response inhibition, emotional stimulus processing, and emotion regulation in relation to participant risk behaviour tendencies and impulsivity levels. The results are consistent with high impulsivity playing an important role in determining high risk tendencies in this sample containing clinically high-risk adolescents.

fMRI investigation of response inhibition, emotion, impulsivity, and clinical high-risk behavior in adolescents.

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Brown, Matthew R G; Benoit, James R A; Juhás, Michal; Dametto, Ericson; Tse, Tiffanie T; MacKay, Marnie; Sen, Bhaskar; Carroll, Alan M; Hodlevskyy, Oleksandr; Silverstone, Peter H; Dolcos, Florin; Dursun, Serdar M; Greenshaw, Andrew J

2015-01-01

High-risk behavior in adolescents is associated with injury, mental health problems, and poor outcomes in later life. Improved understanding of the neurobiology of high-risk behavior and impulsivity shows promise for informing clinical treatment and prevention as well as policy to better address high-risk behavior. We recruited 21 adolescents (age 14-17) with a wide range of high-risk behavior tendencies, including medically high-risk participants recruited from psychiatric clinics. Risk tendencies were assessed using the Adolescent Risk Behavior Screen (ARBS). ARBS risk scores correlated highly (0.78) with impulsivity scores from the Barratt Impulsivity scale (BIS). Participants underwent 4.7 Tesla functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while performing an emotional Go/NoGo task. This task presented an aversive or neutral distractor image simultaneously with each Go or NoGo stimulus. Risk behavior and impulsivity tendencies exhibited similar but not identical associations with fMRI activation patterns in prefrontal brain regions. We interpret these results as reflecting differences in response inhibition, emotional stimulus processing, and emotion regulation in relation to participant risk behavior tendencies and impulsivity levels. The results are consistent with high impulsivity playing an important role in determining high risk tendencies in this sample containing clinically high-risk adolescents.

Hygienic assessment of drinking water quality and risks to public health in Krasnoyarsk region

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D.V. Goryaev

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The article presents the hygienic assessment of water quality in water sources of the Krasnoyarsk region used for centralized drinking water supply. It is shown that the exceeding of hygienic standards was registered at such indicators as iron (iron content is noted at the level to 1.8 mg/dm 3 or 6 MPC; fluorine (up to 6 MPC; ammonia and ammonium nitrogen (up to 2 MPC, nitrates (up to 5 MPC, organochlorine compounds (chloroform, carbon tetrachloride up to 5 MPC, manganese (up to 5.5 MPC, aluminium (up to 2 MPC. In water carcinogenic contaminants are recorded in significant concentrations: benzo(apyrene, cadmium, arsenic, nickel, lead. It is determined that the total lifetime carcinogenic risk to public health in the cities and districts of the Krasnoyarsk region due to oral intake from drinking water of chemicals of carcinogenic nature is negligible in 22 areas, and requires no additional measures to reduce. 23 territories of the region have carcinogenic risk ranged 1.0E-6 to 1.0E-5, which meets the criteria of acceptable risk. 9 territories (the town of Borodino, Lesosibirsk, Yeniseisk, Kazachinskiy, Partizansky, Pirovskiy, Rybinskiy, Sayanskiy, Uyarskiy areas show the level of lifetime individual cancer risk from 1.0E-5 to 2.0E-4, which is unacceptable for the population in general. The main contribution to the risk level (80.8–98.4 % makes the contents of arsenic in the drinking water. There is an increased risk of district (NI=1.2 and NI=1.17, respectively; bone and teeth from residents of the Sukhobuzimsky district (NI=1.04. High hazard indexes due to the nitrate and fluoride. Providing the population of urban districts and municipal districts of the Krasnoyarsk region with safe drinking water requires a set of various measures with the development and implementation of programs on improvement of water supply of populated areas

Not all risks are equal: the risk taking inventory for high-risk sports.

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Woodman, Tim; Barlow, Matt; Bandura, Comille; Hill, Miles; Kupciw, Dominika; Macgregor, Alexandra

2013-10-01

Although high-risk sport participants are typically considered a homogenous risk-taking population, attitudes to risk within the high-risk domain can vary considerably. As no validated measure allows researchers to assess risk taking within this domain, we validated the Risk Taking Inventory (RTI) for high-risk sport across four studies. The RTI comprises seven items across two factors: deliberate risk taking and precautionary behaviors. In Study 1 (n = 341), the inventory was refined and tested via a confirmatory factor analysis used in an exploratory fashion. The subsequent three studies confirmed the RTI's good model-data fit via three further separate confirmatory factor analyses. In Study 2 (n = 518) and in Study 3 (n = 290), concurrent validity was also confirmed via associations with other related traits (sensation seeking, behavioral activation, behavioral inhibition, impulsivity, self-esteem, extraversion, and conscientiousness). In Study 4 (n = 365), predictive validity was confirmed via associations with mean accidents and mean close calls in the high-risk domain. Finally, in Study 4, the self-report version of the inventory was significantly associated with an informant version of the inventory. The measure will allow researchers and practitioners to investigate risk taking as a variable that is conceptually distinct from participation in a high-risk sport.

Case Study of Cardiovascular Risk Reduction in the Northwest Region and TRICARE Region 11

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Murphy, Rosemary

2003-01-01

... and TRICARE Lead Agent Region 11. The outcomes management team developed a cardiovascular risk reduction scorecard and metrics in which to evaluate the care being given to the TRICARE prime enrollees with a cardiovascular disease diagnosis...

Basic Practices Aiding High-Performance Homeland Security Regional Partnerships

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Caudle, Sharon

2006-01-01

....1 A national priority under the Goal is the use of geographic regions across the nation to share risk, engage in joint planning, and share resources to develop and sustain risk-based capability levels...

High-Risk Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck

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Michael J. Veness

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Nonmelanoma skin cancers (squamous cell and basal cell carcinomas occur at an epidemic rate in many countries with the worldwide incidence increasing. The sun-exposed head and neck are the most frequent sites for these cancers to arise and in most patients diagnosed with a cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, local treatment is usually curative. However, a subset is diagnosed with a high-risk cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma. High-risk factors include size (> 2 cm, thickness/depth of invasion (> 4 mm, recurrent lesions, the presence of perineural invasion, location near the parotid gland, and immunosuppression. These patients have a higher risk (> 10–20% of developing metastases to regional lymph nodes (often parotid nodes, and in some cases also of experiencing local morbidity (perineural invasion, based on unfavourable primary lesion and patient factors. Despite treatment, many patients developing metastatic cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma experience mortality and morbidity usually as a consequence of uncontrolled metastatic nodal disease. It is therefore important that clinicians treating nonmelanoma skin cancers have an understanding and awareness of these high-risk patients. The aim of this article is to discuss the factors that define a high-risk patient and to present some of the issues pertinent to their management.

Early Primary Care Provider Follow-up and Readmission After High-Risk Surgery

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Brooke, Benjamin S.; Stone, David H.; Cronenwett, Jack L.; Nolan, Brian; DeMartino, Randall R.; MacKenzie, Todd A.; Goodman, David C.; Goodney, Philip P.

2014-01-01

IMPORTANCE Follow-up with a primary care provider (PCP) in addition to the surgical team is routinely recommended to patients discharged after major surgery despite no clear evidence that it improves outcomes. OBJECTIVE To test whether PCP follow-up is associated with lower 30-day readmission rates after open thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA) repair and ventral hernia repair (VHR), surgical procedures known to have a high and low risk of readmission, respectively. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In a cohort of Medicare beneficiaries discharged to home after open TAA repair (n = 12 679) and VHR (n = 52 807) between 2003 to 2010, we compared 30-day readmission rates between patients seen and not seen by a PCP within 30 days of discharge and across tertiles of regional primary care use. We stratified our analysis by the presence of complications during the surgical (index) admission. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Thirty-day readmission rate. RESULTS Overall, 2619 patients (20.6%) undergoing open TAA repair and 4927 patients (9.3%) undergoing VHR were readmitted within 30 days after surgery. Complications occurred in 4649 patients (36.6%) undergoing open TAA repair and 4528 patients (8.6%) undergoing VHR during their surgical admission. Early follow-up with a PCP significantly reduced the risk of readmission among open TAA patients who experienced perioperative complications, from 35.0% (without follow-up) to 20.4% (with follow-up) (P < .001). However, PCP follow-up made no significant difference in patients whose hospital course was uncomplicated (19.4% with follow-up vs 21.9% without follow-up; P = .31). In comparison, early follow-up with a PCP after VHR did not reduce the risk of readmission, regardless of complications. In adjusted regional analyses, undergoing open TAA repair in regions with high compared with low primary care use was associated with an 18% lower likelihood of 30-day readmission (odds ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71–0.96; P = .02), whereas no significant

Dysfunctional Brain Networking among Autonomic Regulatory Structures in Temporal Lobe Epilepsy Patients at High Risk of Sudden Unexpected Death in Epilepsy

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Luke A. Allen

2017-10-01

Full Text Available BackgroundSudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP is common among young people with epilepsy. Individuals who are at high risk of SUDEP exhibit regional brain structural and functional connectivity (FC alterations compared with low-risk patients. However, less is known about network-based FC differences among critical cortical and subcortical autonomic regulatory brain structures in temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE patients at high risk of SUDEP.Methods32 TLE patients were risk-stratified according to the following clinical criteria: age of epilepsy onset, duration of epilepsy, frequency of generalized tonic–clonic seizures, and presence of nocturnal seizures, resulting in 14 high-risk and 18 low-risk cases. Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI signal time courses were extracted from 11 bilateral cortical and subcortical brain regions involved in autonomic and other regulatory processes. After computing all pairwise correlations, FC matrices were analyzed using the network-based statistic. FC strength among the 11 brain regions was compared between the high- and low-risk patients. Increases and decreases in FC were sought, using high-risk > low-risk and low-risk > high-risk contrasts (with covariates age, gender, lateralization of epilepsy, and presence of hippocampal sclerosis.ResultsHigh-risk TLE patients showed a subnetwork with significantly reduced FC (t = 2.5, p = 0.029 involving the thalamus, brain stem, anterior cingulate, putamen and amygdala, and a second subnetwork with significantly elevated FC (t = 2.1, p = 0.031, which extended to medial/orbital frontal cortex, insula, hippocampus, amygdala, subcallosal cortex, brain stem, thalamus, caudate, and putamen.ConclusionTLE patients at high risk of SUDEP showed widespread FC differences between key autonomic regulatory brain regions compared to those at low risk. The altered FC revealed here may help to shed light on the functional

Dysfunctional Brain Networking among Autonomic Regulatory Structures in Temporal Lobe Epilepsy Patients at High Risk of Sudden Unexpected Death in Epilepsy.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Luke A; Harper, Ronald M; Kumar, Rajesh; Guye, Maxime; Ogren, Jennifer A; Lhatoo, Samden D; Lemieux, Louis; Scott, Catherine A; Vos, Sjoerd B; Rani, Sandhya; Diehl, Beate

2017-01-01

Sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) is common among young people with epilepsy. Individuals who are at high risk of SUDEP exhibit regional brain structural and functional connectivity (FC) alterations compared with low-risk patients. However, less is known about network-based FC differences among critical cortical and subcortical autonomic regulatory brain structures in temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) patients at high risk of SUDEP. 32 TLE patients were risk-stratified according to the following clinical criteria: age of epilepsy onset, duration of epilepsy, frequency of generalized tonic-clonic seizures, and presence of nocturnal seizures, resulting in 14 high-risk and 18 low-risk cases. Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) signal time courses were extracted from 11 bilateral cortical and subcortical brain regions involved in autonomic and other regulatory processes. After computing all pairwise correlations, FC matrices were analyzed using the network-based statistic. FC strength among the 11 brain regions was compared between the high- and low-risk patients. Increases and decreases in FC were sought, using high-risk > low-risk and low-risk > high-risk contrasts (with covariates age, gender, lateralization of epilepsy, and presence of hippocampal sclerosis). High-risk TLE patients showed a subnetwork with significantly reduced FC ( t  = 2.5, p  = 0.029) involving the thalamus, brain stem, anterior cingulate, putamen and amygdala, and a second subnetwork with significantly elevated FC ( t  = 2.1, p  = 0.031), which extended to medial/orbital frontal cortex, insula, hippocampus, amygdala, subcallosal cortex, brain stem, thalamus, caudate, and putamen. TLE patients at high risk of SUDEP showed widespread FC differences between key autonomic regulatory brain regions compared to those at low risk. The altered FC revealed here may help to shed light on the functional correlates of autonomic disturbances in epilepsy

Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong-Liang Qi

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China. The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun

2015-10-29

Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

Use of support services in a sample of patients with high-risk primary melanomas in urban, regional and rural Queensland.

Science.gov (United States)

von Schuckmann, Lena A; Smithers, Bernhard M; Khosrotehrani, Kiarash; Beesley, Vanessa L; van der Pols, Jolieke C; Hughes, Maria B; Green, Adele C

2017-06-01

To characterise use of support services in patients diagnosed with high-risk primary melanoma by their location of residence. In a cross-sectional study of 787 patients with histologically-confirmed clinical stage 1B-2 melanoma, we estimated odds ratios (ORs) using regression models to assess the association of support service use with residence in rural, regional or urban areas. We also evaluated demographic and clinical correlates of support service use. Among 113 rural patients, 33 (29%) used support services around time of diagnosis compared to 88 (39%) of 224 regional participants and 164 of 448 (37%) urban participants. Regional participants more commonly used support services compared to rural participants (OR 1.84; CI 1.09-3.10), but there was no association with urban versus rural residence (OR 1.32; CI 0.82-2.13). As well, females (OR 1.58; CI 1.15-2.18), those <65 years (OR 1.96; CI 1.42-2.71), or with higher education (OR 2.30; CI 1.53-3.44), or those with T-stage 4B (OR 2.69; CI 1.36-5.32) were more likely to use support services than other patients. Use of support services is lower among rural patients and other sub-groups of primary melanoma patients who have poorer prognoses than others. Implications for public health: Appropriate triage to support services is required for rural and other vulnerable patient groups to ensure optimal patient care. © 2017 The Authors.

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Diabetic Nephropathy in Omani Type 2 Diabetics in Al-Dakhiliyah Region

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Abdulhakeem Hamood Alrawahi

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Objective: To assess the prevalence and risk factors of diabetic nephropathy among Omani type 2 diabetics in Al-Dakhiliyah region of the Sultanate of Oman.Methods: A cross-sectional and a case control study designs were used to assess the prevalence and risk factors respectively. For the prevalence study a sample of 699 diabetic subjects were selected randomly from two polyclinics in Al-Dakhiliyah region; Sumail and Nizwa polyclinics. For the case control study, a sample consisting of 215 cases and 358 controls were randomly selected from those who were included in the cross-sectional study. A well designed questionnaire has been used to collect data regarding the disease and risk factors. Data was analyzed using SPSS19 statistical program.Results: Total prevalence of diabetic nephropathy was calculated as 42.5% (95% C.I: 38.83% - 46.15%. The difference in the prevalence in the two polyclinic catchment area was not significant. The prevalence was significantly higher among males (51.6% compared to females (36.5%. Crude analysis of the risk factors showed significant association between diabetic nephropathy and the following factors; male gender, decreased literacy, long duration of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, retinopathy, neuropathy, family history of diabetic nephropathy, poor glycemic control (high HbA1c, and hypertriglyceridemia. Multivariate analysis showed the following factors to be independent risk factors; male gender, decreased literacy, long duration of diabetes, family history of diabetic nephropathy and poor glycaemic control (high HbA1c.Conclusion: The prevalence of diabetic nephropathy in this study was 42.5% and the significant risk factors associated with it included male gender, decreased literacy, long duration of diabetes, family history of diabetic nephropathy and poor glycemic control (high HbA1c.

CYP1A1 gene polymorphisms increase lung cancer risk in a high-incidence region of Spain: a case control study

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San Jose Carmen

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A rural region in south-west Spain has one of the highest lung cancer incidence rates of the country, as revealed by a previous epidemiological 10-year follow-up study. The present work was undertaken to ascertain the role of CYP1A1 gene polymorphisms and their interaction with tobacco smoking in the development of the disease in this location. Methods One-hundred-and-three cases of lung cancer and 265 controls participated in the study. The participants were screened for the presence of four CYP1A1 polymorphisms, namely MspI, Ile462Val, T3205C, and Thr461Asn. Lung cancer risk was estimated as odds ratios (OR and 95% confidence intervals (CI using unconditional logistic regression models adjusting for age, sex, and smoking. Results The distribution of the variant CYP1A1 alleles was different from that described for other Caucasian populations, with CYP1A1*2A showing an uncommonly high frequency (p CYP1A1*2B allele (carrying MspI and Ile462Val mutations was strongly associated with high lung cancer risk (OR = 4.59, CI:1.4-12.6, p p p = 0.04. Moreover, the Thr461Asn polymorphism was found to be associated with SCLC in a Caucasian population for the first time to our knowledge (OR = 8.33, CI: 1.3-15.2, p = 0.04. Conclusion The results suggest that CYP1A1 polymorphisms contribute to increase lung cancer susceptibility in an area with an uncommon high incidence rate.

Does Discrimination Explain High Risk of Depression among High-Income African American Men?

Science.gov (United States)

Assari, Shervin; Lankarani, Maryam Moghani; Caldwell, Cleopatra Howard

2018-04-19

Background: Higher socioeconomic status is known to decrease the risk for poor mental health overall. However, African American males of higher socioeconomic status (SES) are at an increased risk for having a major depressive episode (MDE). It is not known whether perceived discrimination (PD) explains this risk. The current study used nationally representative data to explore the role of PD in explaining the association between high-SES and having MDE among African American men. Methods: The National Survey of American Life (NSAL), 2003, included 4461 American adults including 1271 African American men. SES indicators (i.e., household income, educational attainment, employment status, and marital status) were the independent variables. 12-month MDE measured using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) was the outcome. Age, gender, and region were the covariates. PD was the potential mediator. For data analysis, we used logistic regression. Results: Among African American men, household income was positively associated with odds of 12-month MDE. The positive association between household income and odds of MDE remained unchanged after adding PD to the model, suggesting that PD may not explain why high-income African American men are at a higher risk of MDE. Conclusions: Perceived discrimination does not explain the increased risk for depression among African American males of higher SES. Future research should explore the role of other potential mechanisms such as stress, coping, social isolation, and/or negative social interaction that may increase psychological costs of upward social mobility for African American males.

The Effect of High Ambient Temperature on the Elderly Population in Three Regions of Sweden

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Joacim Rocklöv

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The short-term effects of high temperatures are a serious concern in the context of climate change. In areas that today have mild climates the research activity has been rather limited, despite the fact that differences in temperature susceptibility will play a fundamental role in understanding the exposure, acclimatization, adaptation and health risks of a changing climate. In addition, many studies employ biometeorological indexes without careful investigation of the regional heterogeneity in the impact of relative humidity. We aimed to investigate the effects of summer temperature and relative humidity and regional differences in three regions of Sweden allowing for heterogeneity of the effect over the scale of summer temperature. To do so, we collected mortality data for ages 65+ from Stockholm, Göteborg and Skåne from the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute for the years 1998 through 2005. In Stockholm and Skåne on average 22 deaths per day occurred, while in Göteborg the mean frequency of daily deaths was 10. We fitted time-series regression models to estimate relative risks of high ambient temperatures on daily mortality using smooth functions to control for confounders, and estimated non-linear effects of exposure while allowing for auto-regressive correlation of observations within summers. The effect of temperature on mortality was found distributed over the same or following day, with statistically significant cumulative combined relative risk of about 5.1% (CI = 0.3, 10.1 per °C above the 90th percentile of summer temperature. The effect of high relative humidity was statistically significant in only one of the regions, as was the effect of relative humidity (above 80th percentile and temperature (above 90th percentile. In the southernmost region studied there appeared to be a significant increase in mortality with decreasing low summer temperatures that was not

High Center Volume Does Not Mitigate Risk Associated with Using High Donor Risk Organs in Liver Transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Beal, Eliza W; Black, Sylvester M; Mumtaz, Khalid; Hayes, Don; El-Hinnawi, Ashraf; Washburn, Kenneth; Tumin, Dmitry

2017-09-01

High-risk donor allografts increase access to liver transplant, but potentially reduce patient and graft survival. It is unclear whether the risk associated with using marginal donor livers is mitigated by increasing center experience. The United Network for Organ Sharing registry was queried for adult first-time liver transplant recipients between 2/2002 and 12/2015. High donor risk was defined as donor risk index >1.9, and 1-year patient and graft survival were compared according to donor risk index in small and large centers. Multivariable Cox regression estimated the hazard ratio (HR) associated with using high-risk donor organs, according to a continuous measure of annual center volume. The analysis included 51,770 patients. In 67 small and 67 large centers, high donor risk index predicted increased mortality (p = 0.001). In multivariable analysis, high-donor risk index allografts predicted greater mortality hazard at centers performing 20 liver transplants per year (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.22, 1.49; p donor risk index and center volume was not statistically significant (p = 0.747), confirming that the risk associated with using marginal donor livers was comparable between smaller and larger centers. Results were consistent when examining graft loss. At both small and large centers, high-risk donor allografts were associated with reduced patient and graft survival after liver transplant. Specific strategies to mitigate the risk of liver transplant involving high-risk donors are needed, in addition to accumulation of center expertise.

Modern Risk Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants High-Voltage Substations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ioan, S.; Hurdubetiu, S.; Marza, F.; Mocanu, M.; Stefan, M.

2002-01-01

The paper describes a first Romanian attempt to set up the methodology for risk assessment and control within high-voltage substations, developed for the Nuclear power plant in Cernavoda (Romania). Considering the present risk assessment methods the MENER Project will develop a new methodology, in line with the European Community legislation and with the specific regional needs. In order to correctly shape the necessary resources required by a risk analysis a large size enterprise (a nuclear power plant) is selected and the following five indicators will be estimated: the economic profit, environmental risk, indirect (future) risk, technology improvement and physic and psychological risk. The results are expected to considerably facilitate risk assessment, by: evaluating project acceptability; evaluating equipment compliance to regulatory criteria; estimating excluding clearances; easing the design of emergency programmes; identifying the equipment use restrictions; identifying the risk sources; selecting the maintenance and risk reduction methods; testing the procedures leading to future regulatory norms; suitability of the risk management system modification. The immediate result of employing modern risk assessment methods could be the decrease by one third of the expenses required by environment protection, staff health and labor safety and quality management. (author)

High tech in the Öresund region

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Povl Adler; Serin, Göran Folke

This book discusses the development conditions in the high tech sector for both high tech manufacturing and services. A central issue in the book is the differences in externalities which exist between various industries in the high tech sector. In this connection the confusion of externalities...... related to different parts of the high tech sector will be addressed. The location of the high tech sector in the Öresund region will be analysed and the region will also be related to other high tech regions in Europe....

fMRI study of language activation in schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder and in individuals genetically at high risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiaobo; Branch, Craig A; Ardekani, Babak A; Bertisch, Hilary; Hicks, Chindo; DeLisi, Lynn E

2007-11-01

Structural and functional abnormalities have been found in language-related brain regions in patients with schizophrenia. We previously reported findings pointing to differences in word processing between people with schizophrenia and individuals who are at high-risk for schizophrenia using a voxel-based (whole brain) fMRI approach. We now extend this finding to specifically examine functional activity in three language related cortical regions using a larger cohort of individuals. A visual lexical discrimination task was performed by 36 controls, 21 subjects at high genetic-risk for schizophrenia, and 20 patients with schizophrenia during blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) fMRI scanning. Activation in bilateral inferior frontal gyri (Brodmann's area 44-45), bilateral inferior parietal lobe (Brodmann's area 39-40), and bilateral superior temporal gyri (Brodmann's area 22) was investigated. For all subjects, two-tailed Pearson correlations were calculated between the computed laterality index and a series of cognitive test scores determining language functioning. Regional activation in Brodmann's area 44-45 was left lateralized in normal controls, while high-risk subjects and patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder showed more bilateral activation. No significant differences among the three diagnostic groups in the other two regions of interest (Brodmann's area 22 or areas 39-40) were found. Furthermore, the apparent reasons for loss of leftward language lateralization differed between groups. In high-risk subjects, the loss of lateralization was based on reduced left hemisphere activation, while in the patient group, it was due to increased right side activation. Language ability related cognitive scores were positively correlations with the laterality indices obtained from Brodmann's areas 44-45 in the high-risk group, and with the laterality indices from Brodmann's areas 22 and 44-45 in the patient group. This study reinforces previous

Potential risk of regional disease spread in West Africa through cross-border cattle trade.

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Anna S Dean

Full Text Available Transboundary animal movements facilitate the spread of pathogens across large distances. Cross-border cattle trade is of economic and cultural importance in West Africa. This study explores the potential disease risk resulting from large-scale, cross-border cattle trade between Togo, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Benin, and Nigeria for the first time.A questionnaire-based survey of livestock movements of 226 cattle traders was conducted in the 9 biggest cattle markets of northern Togo in February-March 2012. More than half of the traders (53.5% operated in at least one other country. Animal flows were stochastically simulated based on reported movements and the risk of regional disease spread assessed. More than three quarters (79.2%, range: 78.1-80.0% of cattle flowing into the market system originated from other countries. Through the cattle market system of northern Togo, non-neighbouring countries were connected via potential routes for disease spread. Even for diseases with low transmissibility and low prevalence in a given country, there was a high risk of disease introduction into other countries.By stochastically simulating data collected by interviewing cattle traders in northern Togo, this study identifies potential risks for regional disease spread in West Africa through cross-border cattle trade. The findings highlight that surveillance for emerging infectious diseases as well as control activities targeting endemic diseases in West Africa are likely to be ineffective if only conducted at a national level. A regional approach to disease surveillance, prevention and control is essential.

Potential Risk of Regional Disease Spread in West Africa through Cross-Border Cattle Trade

Science.gov (United States)

Dean, Anna S.; Fournié, Guillaume; Kulo, Abalo E.; Boukaya, G. Aboudou; Schelling, Esther; Bonfoh, Bassirou

2013-01-01

Background Transboundary animal movements facilitate the spread of pathogens across large distances. Cross-border cattle trade is of economic and cultural importance in West Africa. This study explores the potential disease risk resulting from large-scale, cross-border cattle trade between Togo, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Benin, and Nigeria for the first time. Methods and Principal Findings A questionnaire-based survey of livestock movements of 226 cattle traders was conducted in the 9 biggest cattle markets of northern Togo in February-March 2012. More than half of the traders (53.5%) operated in at least one other country. Animal flows were stochastically simulated based on reported movements and the risk of regional disease spread assessed. More than three quarters (79.2%, range: 78.1–80.0%) of cattle flowing into the market system originated from other countries. Through the cattle market system of northern Togo, non-neighbouring countries were connected via potential routes for disease spread. Even for diseases with low transmissibility and low prevalence in a given country, there was a high risk of disease introduction into other countries. Conclusions By stochastically simulating data collected by interviewing cattle traders in northern Togo, this study identifies potential risks for regional disease spread in West Africa through cross-border cattle trade. The findings highlight that surveillance for emerging infectious diseases as well as control activities targeting endemic diseases in West Africa are likely to be ineffective if only conducted at a national level. A regional approach to disease surveillance, prevention and control is essential. PMID:24130721

Risk assessment of PM2.5 to child residents in Brazilian Amazon region with biofuel production

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de Oliveira Beatriz Fátima

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Exposure to fine fractions of particulate matter (PM2.5 is associated with increased hospital admissions and mortality for respiratory and cardiovascular disease in children and the elderly. This study aims to estimate the toxicological risk of PM2.5 from biomass burning in children and adolescents between the age of 6 and 14 in Tangará da Serra, a municipality of Subequatorial Brazilian Amazon. Methods Risk assessment methodology was applied to estimate the risk quotient in two scenarios of exposure according to local seasonality. The potential dose of PM2.5 was estimated using the Monte Carlo simulation, stratifying the population by age, gender, asthma and Body Mass Index (BMI. Results Male asthmatic children under the age of 8 at normal body rate had the highest risk quotient among the subgroups. The general potential average dose of PM2.5 was 1.95 μg/kg.day (95% CI: 1.62 – 2.27 during the dry scenario and 0.32 μg/kg.day (95% CI: 0.29 – 0.34 in the rainy scenario. During the dry season, children and adolescents showed a toxicological risk to PM2.5 of 2.07 μg/kg.day (95% CI: 1.85 – 2 .30. Conclusions Children and adolescents living in the Subequatorial Brazilian Amazon region were exposed to high levels of PM2.5 resulting in toxicological risk for this multi-pollutant. The toxicological risk quotients of children in this region were comparable or higher to children living in metropolitan regions with PM2.5 air pollution above the recommended limits to human health.

Regional development via high-speed rail : A study of the Stockholm-Mälaren region and possibilities for Melbourne-regional Victoria

OpenAIRE

Bayley, Michael

2012-01-01

The purpose of this thesis is to examine, based on a study of the regional high-speed corridors in the Stockholm-Mälaren Region, the possibilities for regional high-speed rail in Melbourne-regional Victoria (Australia) to improve accessibility, and achieve regional development and balanced growth between the capital and its surrounding regions. It deals with the concept of 'regional' high-speed rail, a variant of classic high-speed rail that serves centres along regional corridors stemming fr...

A metasynthesis of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Suzanne; Ayers, Susan; Holden, Des

2014-04-01

risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies affects their decisions about perinatal care and is of interest to anyone involved in the care of pregnant women. This paper provides a metasynthesis of qualitative studies of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies. a systematic search of eight electronic databases was conducted. Additional papers were obtained through searching references of identified articles. Six studies were identified that reported qualitative research into risk perception in relation to high risk pregnancy. A metasynthesis was developed to describe and interpret the studies. the synthesis resulted in the identification of five themes: determinants of risk perception; not seeing it the way others do; normality versus risk; if the infant is ok, I׳m ok; managing risk. this metasynthesis suggests women at high risk during pregnancy use multiple sources of information to determine their risk status. It shows women are aware of the risks posed by their pregnancies but do not perceive risk in the same way as healthcare professionals. They will take steps to ensure the health of themselves and their infants but these may not include following all medical recommendations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Detecting high risk pregnancy].

Science.gov (United States)

Doret, Muriel; Gaucherand, Pascal

2009-12-20

Antenatal care is aiming to reduce maternal land foetal mortality and morbidity. Maternal and foetal mortality can be due to different causes. Their knowledge allows identifying pregnancy (high risk pregnancy) with factors associated with an increased risk for maternal and/or foetal mortality and serious morbidity. Identification of high risk pregnancies and initiation of appropriate treatment and/or surveillance should improve maternal and/or foetal outcome. New risk factors are continuously described thanks to improvement in antenatal care and development in biology and cytopathology, increasing complexity in identifying high risk pregnancies. Level of risk can change all over the pregnancy. Ideally, it should be evaluated prior to the pregnancy and at each antenatal visit. Clinical examination is able to screen for intra-uterin growth restriction, pre-eclampsia, threatened for preterm labour; ultrasounds help in the diagnosis of foetal morphological anomalies, foetal chromosomal anomalies, placenta praevia and abnormal foetal growth; biological exams are used to screen for pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, trisomy 21 (for which screening method just changed), rhesus immunisation, seroconversion for toxoplasmosis or rubeola, unknown infectious disease (syphilis, hepatitis B, VIH). During pregnancy, most of the preventive strategies have to be initiated during the first trimester or even before conception. Prevention for neural-tube defects, neonatal hypocalcemia and listeriosis should be performed for all women. On the opposite, some measures are concerning only women with risk factors such as prevention for toxoplasmosis, rhesus immunization (which recently changed), tobacco complications and pre-eclampsia and intra-uterine growth factor restriction.

Antibiotics in the coastal environment of the Hailing Bay region, South China Sea: Spatial distribution, source analysis and ecological risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Hui; Liu, Shan; Xu, Xiang-Rong; Zhou, Guang-Jie; Liu, Shuang-Shuang; Yue, Wei-Zhong; Sun, Kai-Feng; Ying, Guang-Guo

2015-06-15

In this study, the occurrence and spatial distribution of 38 antibiotics in surface water and sediment samples of the Hailing Bay region, South China Sea, were investigated. Twenty-one, 16 and 15 of 38 antibiotics were detected with the concentrations ranging from antibiotics in the water phase were correlated positively with chemical oxygen demand and nitrate. The source analysis indicated that untreated domestic sewage was the primary source of antibiotics in the study region. Fluoroquinolones showed strong sorption capacity onto sediments due to their high pseudo-partitioning coefficients. Risk assessment indicated that oxytetracycline, norfloxacin and erythromycin-H2O posed high risks to aquatic organisms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing a high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalysis for Australia

Science.gov (United States)

White, Christopher; Fox-Hughes, Paul; Su, Chun-Hsu; Jakob, Dörte; Kociuba, Greg; Eisenberg, Nathan; Steinle, Peter; Harris, Rebecca; Corney, Stuart; Love, Peter; Remenyi, Tomas; Chladil, Mark; Bally, John; Bindoff, Nathan

2017-04-01

A dynamically consistent, long-term atmospheric reanalysis can be used to support high-quality assessments of environmental risk and likelihood of extreme events. Most reanalyses are presently based on coarse-scale global systems that are not suitable for regional assessments in fire risk, water and natural resources, amongst others. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is currently working to close this gap by producing a high-resolution reanalysis over the Australian and New Zealand region to construct a sequence of atmospheric conditions at sub-hourly intervals over the past 25 years from 1990. The Australia reanalysis consists of a convective-scale analysis nested within a 12 km regional-scale reanalysis, which is bounded by a coarse-scale ERA-Interim reanalysis that provides the required boundary and initial conditions. We use an unchanging atmospheric modelling suite based on the UERRA system used at the UK Met Office and the more recent version of the Bureau of Meteorology's operational numerical prediction model used in ACCESS-R (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator-Regional system). An advanced (4-dimensional variational) data assimilation scheme is used to optimally combine model physics with multiple observations from aircrafts, sondes, surface observations and satellites to create a best estimate of state of the atmosphere over a 6-hour moving window. This analysis is in turn used to drive a higher-resolution (1.5 km) downscaling model over selected subdomains within Australia, currently eastern New South Wales and Tasmania, with the capability to support this anywhere in the Australia-New Zealand domain. The temporal resolution of the gridded analysis fields for both the regional and higher-resolution subdomains are generally one hour, with many fields such as 10 m winds and 2 m temperatures available every 10 minutes. The reanalysis also produces many other variables that include wind, temperature, moisture, pressure, cloud cover

Does Discrimination Explain High Risk of Depression among High-Income African American Men?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shervin Assari

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Background: Higher socioeconomic status is known to decrease the risk for poor mental health overall. However, African American males of higher socioeconomic status (SES are at an increased risk for having a major depressive episode (MDE. It is not known whether perceived discrimination (PD explains this risk. The current study used nationally representative data to explore the role of PD in explaining the association between high-SES and having MDE among African American men. Methods: The National Survey of American Life (NSAL, 2003, included 4461 American adults including 1271 African American men. SES indicators (i.e., household income, educational attainment, employment status, and marital status were the independent variables. 12-month MDE measured using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI was the outcome. Age, gender, and region were the covariates. PD was the potential mediator. For data analysis, we used logistic regression. Results: Among African American men, household income was positively associated with odds of 12-month MDE. The positive association between household income and odds of MDE remained unchanged after adding PD to the model, suggesting that PD may not explain why high-income African American men are at a higher risk of MDE. Conclusions: Perceived discrimination does not explain the increased risk for depression among African American males of higher SES. Future research should explore the role of other potential mechanisms such as stress, coping, social isolation, and/or negative social interaction that may increase psychological costs of upward social mobility for African American males.

Risk perception in women with high-risk pregnancies

OpenAIRE

Lee, S.

2014-01-01

Risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies affects the decisions they make about antenatal care and so may therefore influence the wellbeing of mother and baby. This article addresses the factors which influence women when making risk assessments and how these assessments may differ from those of healthcare professionals.\\ud \\ud Women use multiple sources of information to determine their risk status including advice from professionals, from other trusted sources, and their own intui...

Evaluation model for safety capacity of chemical industrial park based on acceptable regional risk

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Guohua Chen; Shukun Wang; Xiaoqun Tan

2015-01-01

The paper defines the Safety Capacity of Chemical Industrial Park (SCCIP) from the perspective of acceptable regional risk. For the purpose of exploring the evaluation model for the SCCIP, a method based on quantitative risk assessment was adopted for evaluating transport risk and to confirm reasonable safety transport capacity of chemical industrial park, and then by combining with the safety storage capacity, a SCCIP evaluation model was put forward. The SCCIP was decided by the smaller one between the largest safety storage capacity and the maximum safety transport capacity, or else, the regional risk of the park will exceed the acceptable level. The developed method was applied to a chemical industrial park in Guangdong province to obtain the maximum safety transport capacity and the SCCIP. The results can be realized in the regional risk control of the park effectively.

DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOCIAL TENSION RISK PREDICTING ALGORITHM IN THE POPULATION OF CERTAIN REGIONS OF RUSSIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. B. Mulik

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Aim. The aim of the study was development of approaches to predict the risk of social tension for population of the Russian Federation regions.Methods. Theoretical studies based on the analysis of cartographic material from the National Atlas of Russia. The use of geo-information technologies has provided modeling of environmental load in the territory of certain regions of Russia. Experimental studies were performed using standard methods of psycho-physiological testing involving 336 persons 18-23 years old of both sexes.Results. As a fundamental biologically significant factor of the environment, differentiating the Russian Federation territory to areas with discrete actual physical effects, total solar radiation was determined. The subsequent allocation of model regions (Republic of Crimea, Rostov and Saratov regions based on the principle of minimizing regional differences associated factors of environmental pressure per person. Experimental studies have revealed persistent systemic relationships of phenotypic characteristics and tendency of person to neuropsychic tension. The risk of social tension for the study area population is predicted on the condition of finding more than two thirds of the representatives of sample within the borders of a high level of general non-specific reactivity of an organism.Main conclusions. The expediency of using the northern latitude as an integral index of differentiation of areas on the specifics of the severity of the physical factors of environmental impact on human activity is justified. The possibility of the application for the level of general nonspecific reactivity of an organism as a phenotypic trait marker of social tension risk is identified. An algorithm for predicting the risk of social tension among the population, compactly living in certain territories of the Russian Federation is designed. 

Myocardial infarction in the conscious dog: three dimensional mapping of infarct, collateral flow and region at risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jugdutt, B.I.; Hutchins, G.M.; Bulkley, B.H.; Becker, L.C.

1979-01-01

Myocardial infarcts were examined in dogs to determine the spatial distribution of infarction in the region at risk and the relation between infarction and collateral blood flow. Permanent occlusion of the left circumflex (LC) coronary artery at a constant site was made in 27 conscious dogs that were sacrificed 2 days later. The anatomic region at risk was defined by postmortem coronary arteriography as the volume of the occluded LC coronary bed. The masses of the left ventricle (LV), infarct (I) and risk region (R) were calculated from planimetered areas of weighted bread-loaf sections of LV. Infarct size was directly related to the mass of the risk region (I = 0.53 R - 9.87; r = 0.97; p < 0.001). There was no infarction when R was less than about 20 g or 20% of the LV. The infarcts were mainly subendocardial and tapered from base to apex of the LV; 34% of the risk region became infarcted at the base compared with 22% at the apex. In all dogs, a significant rim of noninfarcted myocardium was identified at lateral aspects of the risk region, even at the endocardial surface. Using 9-μ radioactive microspheres, initial postocclusion flow at the margin of the infarct, but well within the risk region, was higher than at the center, and outer flows were higher than inner flows. Postocclusion flow was even higher in the noninfarcted rim within the risk region, but was still significantly less than flow to normal, nonrisk areas. Collateral flows throughout the risk region increased during the first hour after occlusion, and were even higher at 2 days.Epicardially and laterally within the anatomic risk region there is a substantial amount of tissue that does not infarct despite initally reduced blood flow

Risk factors for bovine tuberculosis in low incidence regions related to the movements of cattle

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

and the volume of cattle imported from endemic regions. Conclusions Although the most likely source of bTB infections in Scotland was cattle previously imported from endemic regions, we found indirect evidence of transmission within Scottish cattle farms and cannot rule out the possibility of low level transmission between farms. Further investigation is needed to determine whether targeting herds with unconfirmed reactors and a history of importing cattle from high risk regions would benefit control efforts. PMID:24206865

Disrupted resting brain graph measures in individuals at high risk for alcoholism.

Science.gov (United States)

Holla, Bharath; Panda, Rajanikant; Venkatasubramanian, Ganesan; Biswal, Bharat; Bharath, Rose Dawn; Benegal, Vivek

2017-07-30

Familial susceptibility to alcoholism is likely to be linked to the externalizing diathesis seen in high-risk offspring from high-density alcohol use disorder (AUD) families. The present study aimed at comparing resting brain functional connectivity and their association with externalizing symptoms and alcoholism familial density in 40 substance-naive high-risk (HR) male offspring from high-density AUD families and 30 matched healthy low-risk (LR) males without a family history of substance dependence using graph theory-based network analysis. The HR subjects from high-density AUD families compared with LR, showed significantly reduced clustering, small-worldness, and local network efficiency. The frontoparietal, cingulo-opercular, sensorimotor and cerebellar networks exhibited significantly reduced functional segregation. These disruptions exhibited independent incremental value in predicting the externalizing symptoms over and above the demographic variables. The reduction of functional segregation in HR subjects was significant across both the younger and older age groups and was proportional to the family loading of AUDs. Detection and estimation of these developmentally relevant disruptions in small-world architecture at critical brain regions sub-serving cognitive, affective, and sensorimotor processes are vital for understanding the familial risk for early onset alcoholism as well as for understanding the pathophysiological mechanism of externalizing behaviors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Occupational risk factors have to be considered in the definition of high-risk lung cancer populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Wild, P; Gonzalez, M; Bourgkard, E; Courouble, N; Clément-Duchêne, C; Martinet, Y; Févotte, J; Paris, C

2012-03-27

The aim of this study was to compute attributable fractions (AF) to occupational factors in an area in North-Eastern France with high lung cancer rates and a past of mining and steel industry. A population-based case-control study among males aged 40-79 was conducted, including confirmed primary lung cancer cases from all hospitals of the study region. Controls were stratified by broad age-classes, district and socioeconomic classes. Detailed occupational and personal risk factors were obtained in face-to-face interviews. Cumulative occupational exposure indices were obtained from the questionnaires. Attributable fractions were computed from multiple unconditional logistic regression models. A total of 246 cases and 531 controls were included. The odds ratios (ORs) adjusted on cumulative smoking and family history of lung cancer increased significantly with the cumulative exposure indices to asbestos, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and crystalline silica, and with exposure to diesel motor exhaust. The AF for occupational factors exceeded 50%, the most important contributor being crystalline silica and asbestos. These AFs are higher than most published figures. This can be because of the highly industrialised area or methods for exposure assessments. Occupational factors are important risk factors and should not be forgotten when defining high-risk lung cancer populations.

Postoperative chemoradiotherapy in high risk locally advanced gastric cancer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Song, Sang Hyuk; Chie, Eui Kyu; Kim, Kyu Bo; Lee, Hyuk Joon; Yang, Han Kwang; Han, Sae Won; Oh, Do Youn; Im, Seok Ah; Bang, Yung Jue; Ha, Sung W. [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul(Korea, Republic of)

2012-12-15

To evaluate treatment outcome of patients with high risk locally advanced gastric cancer after postoperative chemoradiotherapy. Between May 2003 and May 2012, thirteen patients who underwent postoperative chemoradiotherapy for gastric cancer with resection margin involvement or adjacent structure invasion were retrospectively analyzed. Concurrent chemotherapy was administered in 10 patients. Median dose of radiation was 50.4 Gy (range, 45 to 55.8 Gy). The median follow-up duration for surviving patients was 48 months (range, 5 to 108 months). The 5-year overall survival rate was 42% and the 5-year disease-free survival rate was 28%. Major pattern of failure was peritoneal seeding with 46%. Loco-regional recurrence was reported in only one patient. Grade 2 or higher gastrointestinal toxicity occurred in 54% of the patients. However, there was only one patient with higher than grade 3 toxicity. Despite reported suggested role of adjuvant radiotherapy with combination chemotherapy in gastric cancer, only very small portion of the patients underwent the treatment. Results from this study show that postoperative chemoradiotherapy provided excellent locoregional control with acceptable and manageable treatment related toxicity in patients with high risk locally advanced gastric cancer. Thus, postoperative chemoradiotherapy may improve treatment result in terms of locoregional control in these high risk patients. However, as these findings are based on small series, validation with larger cohort is suggested.

Prescription of the High Risk Narcotics and Trading or Illicit Purchasing of High Risk Narcotics

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Nicoleta-Elena Buzatu

2012-05-01

Full Text Available The present essay will analyze the offence of prescribing high risk narcotics and trading or illicit purchasing of high risk narcotics, as it was regulated - together with other offences - by Law no 143 of July 26, 2000 on preventing and fighting against the traffic and illicit consumption of narcotics. The same law defines the meaning of such a phrase “substances which are under national control” by mentioning the fact that they are the narcotics and their precursors listed in Annexes I-IV of the law. The analysis of the offence of prescribing the high risk narcotics and trading or illicit purchasing of high risk narcotics is following the already known structure mentioned in the doctrine and which consists of: object and subjects of the offence, its constituent content: the objective side with its material element, the immediate consequence and causality connections; the subjective side of the offence, as well as forms and modalities of these offences, and the applicable sanctions, of course.

Production of high-resolution digital terrain models in mountain regions to support risk assessment

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Gianfranco Forlani

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Demand for high-accuracy digital terrain models (DTMs in the Alpine region has been steadily increasing in recent years in valleys as well as high mountains. In the former, the determination of the geo-mechanical parameters of rock masses is the main objective; global warming, which causes the retreat of glaciers and the reduction of permafrost, is the main drive of the latter. The consequence is the instability of rock masses in high mountains: new cost-effective monitoring techniques are required to deal with the peculiar characteristics of such environment, delivering results at short notice. After discussing the design and execution of photogrammetric surveys in such areas, with particular reference to block orientation and block control, the paper describes the production of DTMs of rock faces and glacier fronts with light instrumentation and data acquisition techniques, allowing highly automated data processing. To this aim, the PhotoGPS technique and structure from motion algorithms are used to speed up the orientation process, while dense matching area-based correlation techniques are used to generate the DTMs.

Radical prostatectomy for high-risk prostate cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Yossepowitch, Ofer; Eastham, James A

2008-06-01

Consensus recommendations for the identification and treatment of men whose apparent organ confined prostate cancer has high risk features are lacking. Despite ongoing refinements in surgical technique and improvements in morbidity and functional outcomes, the tradition of steering high-risk patients away from radical prostatectomy (RP) remains steadfast. We performed a medical literature search in English using MEDLINE/PubMed that addressed high risk prostate cancer. We analyzed the literature with respect to the historical evolution of this concept, current risk stratification schemes and treatment guidelines and related short and long term outcomes following RP. Contemporary evidence suggest that patients classified with high-risk prostate cancer by commonly used definitions do not have a uniformly poor prognosis after RP. Many cancers categorized clinically as high risk are actually pathologically confined to the prostate, and most men with such cancers who undergo RP are alive and free of additional therapy long after surgery. RP in the high-risk setting appears to be associated with a similar morbidity as in lower-risk patients. Men with clinically localized high-risk prostate cancer should not be categorically disqualified from local definitive therapy with RP. With careful attention to surgical technique, cancer control rates should improve further, and adverse effects on quality of life after RP should continue to decrease.

Deficient Suppression of Default Mode Regions during Working Memory in Individuals with Early Psychosis and at Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Fryer, Susanna L; Woods, Scott W; Kiehl, Kent A; Calhoun, Vince D; Pearlson, Godfrey D; Roach, Brian J; Ford, Judith M; Srihari, Vinod H; McGlashan, Thomas H; Mathalon, Daniel H

2013-01-01

The default mode network (DMN) is a set of brain regions typically activated at rest and suppressed during extrinsic cognition. Schizophrenia has been associated with deficient DMN suppression, though the extent to which DMN dysfunction predates psychosis onset is unclear. This study examined DMN suppression during working memory (WM) performance in youth at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis, early schizophrenia (ESZ) patients, and healthy controls (HC). We hypothesized that the DMN would show load-dependent suppression during WM retrieval in HC but not in ESZ, with CHR participants showing an intermediate pattern. fMRI data were collected from CHR (n = 32), ESZ (n = 22), and HC (n = 54) participants, ages 12-30. DMN regions were defined via seed-based connectivity analysis of resting-state fMRI data from an independent HC sample. Load-dependent deactivations of these DMN regions in response to WM probes were interrogated. Healthy controls showed linear load-dependent increases in DMN deactivation. Significant Group-by-Load interactions were observed in DMN regions including medial prefrontal and lateral posterior parietal cortices. Group-by-Load effects in posterior DMN nodes resulted from less suppression at higher WM loads in ESZ relative to HC, with CHR differing from neither group. In medial prefrontal cortex, suppression of activity at higher WM loads was significantly diminished in both CHR and ESZ groups, relative to HC. In addition, investigation of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) activations revealed that ESZ activated right DLPFC significantly more than HC, with CHR differing from neither group. While HC showed WM load-dependent modulation of DMN suppression, CHR individuals had deficient higher-load DMN suppression that was similar to, but less pronounced than, the distributed suppression deficits evident in ESZ patients. These results suggest that DMN dysregulation associated with schizophrenia predates psychosis onset.

Chromosomal imbalance in the progression of high-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zieger, Karsten; Wiuf, Carsten; Jensen, Klaus Møller-Ernst; Ørntoft, Torben Falck; Dyrskjøt, Lars

2009-01-01

Non-muscle invasive bladder neoplasms with invasion of the lamina propria (stage T1) or high grade of dysplasia are at 'high risk' of progression to life-threatening cancer. However, the individual course is difficult to predict. Chromosomal instability (CI) is associated with high tumor stage and grade, and possibly with the risk of progression. To investigate the relationship between CI and subsequent disease progression, we performed a case-control-study of 125 patients with 'high-risk' non-muscle invasive bladder neoplasms, 67 with later disease progression, and 58 with no progression. Selection criteria were conservative (non-radical) resections and full prospective clinical follow-up (> 5 years). We investigated primary lesions in 59, and recurrent lesions in 66 cases. We used Affymetrix GeneChip ® Mapping 10 K and 50 K SNP microarrays to evaluate genome wide chromosomal imbalance (loss-of-heterozygosity and DNA copy number changes) in 48 representative tumors. DNA copy number changes of 15 key instability regions were further investigated using QPCR in 101 tumors (including 25 tumors also analysed on 50 K SNP microarrays). Chromosomal instability did not predict any higher risk of subsequent progression. Stage T1 and high-grade tumors had generally more unstable genomes than tumors of lower stage and grade (mostly non-primary tumors following a 'high-risk' tumor). However, about 25% of the 'high-risk' tumors had very few alterations. This was independent of subsequent progression. Recurrent lesions represent underlying field disease. A separate analysis of these lesions did neither reflect any difference in the risk of progression. Of specific chromosomal alterations, a possible association between loss of chromosome 8p11 and the risk of progression was found. However, the predictive value was limited by the heterogeneity of the changes. Chromosomal instability (CI) was associated with 'high risk' tumors

Client experiences with perinatal healthcare for high-risk and low-risk women

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Stenus, Cherelle M.V.; Boere-Boonekamp, Magda M.; Kerkhof, Erna F.G.M.; Need, Ariana

2018-01-01

Problem: It is unknown if client experiences with perinatal healthcare differ between low-risk and high-risk women. Background: In the Netherlands, risk selection divides pregnant women into low- and high-risk groups. Receiving news that a pregnancy or childbirth has an increased likelihood of

Regional risk assessment of reuse of ash in civil engineering applications; Regional riskanalys av askanvaendning i anlaeggningsbyggande

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wik, Ola

2009-07-15

A previously proposal (Vaermeforsk report 979, 2006) for common environmental guidelines for reuse of ash in civil engineering applications has only to a limited extent considered eventual additive effects of pollutants from other sources than recycled aggregates. Furthermore the assessment had a strict focus on local effects not considering the possible outcome of a large-scale use of alternative recycled aggregates. The objective of this project has been to characterize the risk of a large-scale use of ashes produced within a regional area. The project targeted at analysing: 1. The possible large-scale negative environmental effects of recycling all ashes fitting for civil engineering applications within a regional watershed area. 2. If environmental effects on a regional scale motivates adjustment of the proposed common environmental guidelines for reuse of ash. In order to perform a regional risk assessment information on the material flow of ashes and traditional aggregates as well as other anthropogenic and natural sources and flows of substances to be analysed is needed. The prime research task of this project was to: Generate material and substance flow information for two different watershed areas, Motala Stroem and Emaan, with respect to lead, cadmium and mercury; and to Compare the generated data with environmental quality standards for surface waters and draft river basin management plans presented by Swedish river basin district authorities. Data on material and substance flow was complied using the following practise; Ashes - data on material flow, substance content and emissions collected from all productions sites. Emissions was estimated using L/S 10 data from standardised leaching test. Missing data was assigned using expert judgement. Aggregates - data on material flow compiled from regional databases. Substance content and emissions calculated based on national generic data. Emissions was estimated using L/S 10 data from standardised leaching

Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Lerner-Lam, A.; Chen, R.; Dilley, M.

2005-12-01

The "Hotspots Project" is a collaborative study of the global distribution and occurrence of multiple natural hazards and the associated exposures of populations and their economic output. In this study we assess the global risks of two disaster-related outcomes: mortality and economic losses. We estimate risk levels by combining hazard exposure with historical vulnerability for two indicators of elements at risk-gridded population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per unit area - for six major natural hazards: earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones. By calculating relative risks for each grid cell rather than for countries as a whole, we are able to estimate risk levels at sub-national scales. These can then be used to estimate aggregate relative multiple hazard risk at regional and national scales. Mortality-related risks are assessed on a 2.5' x 2.5' latitude-longitude grid of global population (GPW Version 3). Economic risks are assessed at the same resolution for gridded GDP per unit area, using World Bank estimates of GDP based on purchasing power parity. Global hazard data were compiled from multiple sources. The project collaborated directly with UNDP and UNEP, the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) at Columbia, and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) in the creation of data sets for several hazards for which global data sets did not previously exist. Drought, flood and volcano hazards are characterized in terms of event frequency, storms by frequency and severity, earthquakes by frequency and ground acceleration exceedance probability, and landslides by an index derived from probability of occurrence. The global analysis undertaken in this project is clearly limited by issues of scale as well as by the availability and quality of data. For some hazards, there exist only 15- to 25-year global records with relatively crude spatial information. Data on historical disaster losses, and particularly on

Chromosome 5p Region SNPs Are Associated with Risk of NSCLC among Women

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dyke, A. L. V.

2009-01-01

In a population-based case-control study, we explored the associations between 42 polymorphisms in seven genes in this region and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) risk among Caucasian (364 cases; 380 controls) and African American (95 cases; 103 controls) women. Two TERT region SNPs, rs2075786 and rs2853677, conferred an increased risk of developing NSCLC, especially among African American women, and TERT-rs2735940 was associated with a decreased risk of lung cancer among African Americans. Five of the 20 GHR polymorphisms and SEPP1-rs6413428 were associated with a marginally increased risk of NSCLC among Caucasians. Random forest analysis reinforced the importance of GHR among Caucasians and identified AMACR, TERT, and GHR among African Americans, which were also significant using gene-based risk scores. Smoking-SNP interactions were explored, and haplotype in TERT and GHR associated with NSCLC risk were identified. The roles of TERT, GHR, AMACR and SEPP1 genes in lung carcinogenesis warrant further exploration

Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

2015-01-01

Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

[A model list of high risk drugs].

Science.gov (United States)

Cotrina Luque, J; Guerrero Aznar, M D; Alvarez del Vayo Benito, C; Jimenez Mesa, E; Guzman Laura, K P; Fernández Fernández, L

2013-12-01

«High-risk drugs» are those that have a very high «risk» of causing death or serious injury if an error occurs during its use. The Institute for Safe Medication Practices (ISMP) has prepared a high-risk drugs list applicable to the general population (with no differences between the pediatric and adult population). Thus, there is a lack of information for the pediatric population. The main objective of this work is to develop a high-risk drug list adapted to the neonatal or pediatric population as a reference model for the pediatric hospital health workforce. We made a literature search in May 2012 to identify any published lists or references in relation to pediatric and/or neonatal high-risk drugs. A total of 15 studies were found, from which 9 were selected. A model list was developed mainly based on the ISMP one, adding strongly perceived pediatric risk drugs and removing those where the pediatric use was anecdotal. There is no published list that suits pediatric risk management. The list of pediatric and neonatal high-risk drugs presented here could be a «reference list of high-risk drugs » for pediatric hospitals. Using this list and training will help to prevent medication errors in each drug supply chain (prescribing, transcribing, dispensing and administration). Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Comparison of the large-scale radon risk map for southern Belgium with results of high resolution surveys

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, H.-C.; Charlet, J.M.; Poffijn, A.

2000-01-01

A large-scale radon survey consisting of long-term measurements in about 5200 singe-family houses in the southern part of Belgium was carried from 1995 to 1999. A radon risk map for the region was produced using geostatistical and GIS approaches. Some communes or villages situated within high risk areas were chosen for detailed surveys. A high resolution radon survey with about 330 measurements was performed in half part of the commune of Burg-Reuland. Comparison of radon maps on quite different scales shows that the general Rn risk map has similar pattern as the radon map for the detailed study area. Another detailed radon survey in the village of Hatrival, situated in a high radon area, found very high proportion of houses with elevated radon concentrations. The results of this detailed survey are comparable to the expectation for high risk areas on the large-scale radon risk map. The good correspondence between the findings of the general risk map and the analysis of the limited detailed surveys, suggests that the large-scale radon risk map is likely reliable. (author)

Trends and risk factors for syphilis infection in Piedmont Region, Italy, 2002-2008.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Federica Vigna-Taglianti

2011-03-01

Full Text Available

Abstract:
Background: This work aims to analyze trends of syphilis infections in the Piedmont Region (Italy between 2002 and 2008, and to evaluate risk factors for infection. Methods: Syphilis trends were described according to socio-demographic characteristics, sexual behavior, condom use, number of partners and HIV infection. Independent risk factors for syphilis among men having sex with men (MSM, men having sex with women (MSW, and women were identified through logistic regression comparing cases with 12,773 negative patients. Results: Between 2002 and 2008, 1,046 cases of syphilis were diagnosed, with peaks in 2004 and 2007. The risk of a syphilis diagnosis was independently associated with being older than 24, having a low education level, homosexual behavior, HIV self-reported infection (for MSM and MSW, number of partners (for MSW and women and non- consistent condom use (for women. Conclusions: Recent outbreaks suggest that the attention to syphilis can’t be lowered. Screening, treatment of cases and notification of partners should be reinforced and integrated with sexual health education and counselling in high-risk environments. Surveillance data must be continuously collected.

A metasynthesis of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies

OpenAIRE

Lee, S.; Ayers, S.; Holden, D.

2014-01-01

Introduction: Risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies affects their decisions about perinatal care and is of interest to anyone involved in the care of pregnant women. This paper provides a metasynthesis of qualitative studies of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies.\\ud \\ud Methods: A systematic search of eight electronic databases was conducted. Additional papers were obtained through searching references of identified articles. Six studies were identified that rep...

Risk factors associated with hantavirosis fatality: a regional analysis from a case-control study in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Cristina Antunes Willemann

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: In Brazil, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS has a high lethality rate that varies by region. This study aimed to identify the risk factors associated with fatal hantavirosis. Methods: This study was a case-control study that included all laboratory confirmed cases of hantavirosis. The cases were stratified by the different Brazilian regions using data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System. “Cases” were patients who progressed to death, whereas “controls” were patients who were cured. The odds ratio (OR and the adjusted OR were calculated. Results: Overall, 158 cases and 281 controls were included in this study. In the Midwest region, the cases were 60% less likely to present with flank pain, and the time between the beginning of symptoms and death was shorter than the time between the beginning of symptoms and a cure. In the Southeast region, the cases were 60% less likely to present with thrombocytopenia or reside in rural areas compared to those who progressed to a cure. Additionally, the cases sought medical assistance, notification and investigation more quickly than the controls. In the Southern region, the cases that died were 70% less likely to be male compared to the controls. Conclusions: HCPS manifests with nonspecific symptoms, and there are few published studies related to the condition, so determining a patient's therapeutic strategy is difficult. This study presents findings from different Brazilian regions and highlights the need for further investigations to improve comprehension about regional risk factors associated with hantavirosis and to reduce morbimortality.

Identification of high risk patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in a northern Greek population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karvounis Charalambos

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The percentage of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM patients who are in high risk for Sudden Death (SD constitutes only a minority of all HCM population but the incidence of SD in this subset is high (at least 5% annually. The identification of this small but important proportion of high risk HCM patients has been the clue in the clinical evaluation of these patients. Methods Our study cohort consisted from 123 patients with HCM who are currently followed up in our Institution. Five clinical risk factors were assessed: a family history of premature SD, unexplained syncope, Non Sustained Ventricular Tachycardia (NSVT on 24-h ECG monitoring, Abnormal Blood Pressure Response (ABPR during upright exercise testing and Maximum left ventricular Wall Thickness (MWT ≥30 mm. The purpose of our study was the identification of high risk HCM patients coming from Northern Greece. Results Fifteen patients (12.2% of the whole cohort had MWT ≥ 30 mm, 30 patients (24.4% had an ABPR to exercise, 17 patients (13.8% had episodes of NSVT in 24-h Holter monitoring, 17 patients (13.8% suffered from syncope, and 8 patients (6.5% had a positive family history of premature SD. Data analysis revealed that 74 patients (60.1% had none risk factor. Twenty four patients (19.5% had 1 risk factor, 17 patients (13.8% had 2 risk factors, 4 patients (3.25% had 3 risk factors, and 4 patients (3.25% had 4 risk factors, while none patient had 5 risk factors. Twenty five patients (20.3% had 2 or more risk factors. Conclusion This study for the first time confirms that, although a 60% of patients with HCM coming from a regional Greek population are in low risk for SD, a substantial proportion (almost 20% carries a high risk for SD justifying prophylactic therapy with amiodaron or ICD implantation.

Risk Assessment of Geologic Formation Sequestration in The Rocky Mountain Region, USA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Si-Yong; McPherson, Brian

2013-08-01

The purpose of this report is to describe the outcome of a targeted risk assessment of a candidate geologic sequestration site in the Rocky Mountain region of the USA. Specifically, a major goal of the probabilistic risk assessment was to quantify the possible spatiotemporal responses for Area of Review (AoR) and injection-induced pressure buildup associated with carbon dioxide (CO₂) injection into the subsurface. Because of the computational expense of a conventional Monte Carlo approach, especially given the likely uncertainties in model parameters, we applied a response surface method for probabilistic risk assessment of geologic CO₂ storage in the Permo-Penn Weber formation at a potential CCS site in Craig, Colorado. A site-specific aquifer model was built for the numerical simulation based on a regional geologic model.

Imaging Frontostriatal Function in Ultra-High-Risk, Early, and Chronic Schizophrenia During Executive Processing

Science.gov (United States)

Morey, Rajendra A.; Inan, Seniha; Mitchell, Teresa V.; Perkins, Diana O.; Lieberman, Jeffrey A.; Belger, Aysenil

2009-01-01

Context Individuals experiencing prodromal symptoms of schizophrenia (ultra-high-risk group) demonstrate impaired performance on tasks of executive function, attention, and working memory. The neurobiological underpinnings of such executive deficits in ultra-high-risk individuals remains unclear. Objective We assessed frontal and striatal functions during a visual oddball continuous performance task, in ultra-high-risk, early, and chronic schizophrenic patients with the use of functional magnetic resonance imaging. Design Cross-sectional case-control design. Setting Community; outpatient clinic. Patients Fifty-two individuals (control, n = 16; ultra-high risk, n = 10; early, n = 15; chronic, n = 11) from a referred clinical sample and age- and sex-matched control volunteers underwent scanning. Main Outcome Measures Percentage of active voxels and percentage signal change calculated for the anterior cingulate gyrus (ACG), middle frontal gyrus (MFG), inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), basal ganglia, and thalamus. Performance on the visual oddball task was measured with percentage of hits and d′ (a measure based on the hit rate and the false-alarm rate). Results The ultra-high-risk group showed significantly smaller differential activation between task-relevant and task-irrelevant stimuli in the frontal regions (ACG, IFG, MFG) than the control group. Frontostriatal activation associated with target stimuli in the early and chronic groups was significantly lower than the control group, while the ultra-high-risk group showed a trend toward the early group. Conclusions Our findings suggest that prefrontal function begins to decline before the onset of syndromally defined illness and hence may represent a vulnerability marker in assessing the risk of developing psychotic disorders among ultra-high-risk individuals. PMID:15753238

A comparative review of multi-risk modelling methodologies for climate change adaptation in mountain regions

Science.gov (United States)

Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

2017-04-01

Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies. This study aims to provide a literature review of available qualitative and quantitative tools, methodological guidelines and best practices to conduct multi-risk assessments in the mountain environment within the context of climate change. We analyzed multi-risk modelling and assessment methods applied in alpine regions (e.g. event trees, Bayesian Networks, Agent Based Models) in order to identify key concepts (exposure, resilience, vulnerability, risk, adaptive capacity), climatic drivers, cause-effect relationships and socio-ecological systems to be integrated in a comprehensive framework. The main outcomes of the review, including a comparison of existing techniques based on different criteria (e.g. scale of analysis, targeted questions, level of complexity) and a snapshot of the developed multi-risk framework for climate change adaptation will be here presented and discussed.

[Clinical features, care pathways and behaviors of patients with high level of cardiovascular risk: transversal study in south-west region of France].

Science.gov (United States)

Gay, Bernard; Couffinhal, Thierry; Saillour-Glénisson, Florence; Sevin, Floriane; Kret, Marion; Michel, Philippe

2013-11-01

To screen and to follow-up the patients with high cardiovascular risk in general practice may amplify the decrease of the cardiovascular morbi-mortality observed since a few years. The objective of this study is to identify the patients with high cardiovascular risk and to describe the management of these patients by general practitioners in Aquitaine. Transversal study of a sample of patients from 18 to 70 years old with high cardiovascular risk (combining at least 3 factors), included by voluntary general practitioners (GP). Forty-seven GP included 102 patients, presenting on average 3.7 risk factors among which 2.6 modifiable. The target values were reached for 59 % of patients with high blood pressure, 56 % of patients with diabetes and 53 % of patients with high cholesterol level. The analysis of care pathways identified the cardiologist as the privileged interlocutor. The doctors thought that seven patients out of 10 could change their risk behaviors. For the patients, the scale of declared importance to change was 6.6 on 10 for tobacco, 6.0 for food habits and 6.2 for physical activity. The confidence in their capacity to change was 3.8 on 10 for the tobacco, 5.2 for the food habits and 4.7 for the physical activity. Although doctors' sample is not representative, these results give an original overview of the management of patients with high cardiovascular risk and their care pathways. Medical treatments were globally in accordance with guidelines. The difficulty to change risk behaviors illustrates the necessity of patient therapeutic education. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Risk-based consequences of extreme natural hazard processes in mountain regions - Multi-hazard analysis in Tyrol (Austria)

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Huttenlau, Matthias; Stötter, Johann

2010-05-01

Reinsurance companies are stating a high increase in natural hazard related losses, both insured and economic losses, within the last decades on a global scale. This ongoing trend can be described as a product of the dynamic in the natural and in the anthroposphere. To analyze the potential impact of natural hazard process to a certain insurance portfolio or to the society in general, reinsurance companies or risk management consultants have developed loss models. However, those models are generally not fitting the scale dependent demand on regional scales like it is appropriate (i) for analyses on the scale of a specific province or (ii) for portfolio analyses of regional insurance companies. Moreover, the scientific basis of most of the models is not transparent documented and therefore scientific evaluations concerning the methodology concepts are not possible (black box). This is contrary to the scientific principles of transparency and traceability. Especially in mountain regions like the European Alps with their inherent (i) specific characteristic on small scales, (ii) the relative high process dynamics in general, (iii) the occurrence of gravitative mass movements which are related to high relief energy and thus only exists in mountain regions, (iv) the small proportion of the area of permanent settlement on the overall area, (v) the high value concentration in the valley floors, (vi) the exposition of important infrastructures and lifelines, and others, analyses must consider these circumstances adequately. Therefore, risk-based analyses are methodically estimating the potential consequences of hazard process on the built environment standardized with the risk components (i) hazard, (ii) elements at risk, and (iii) vulnerability. However, most research and progress have been made in the field of hazard analyses, whereas the other both components are not developed accordingly. Since these three general components are influencing factors without any

Non-detection of Epstein-Barr virus and human papillomavirus in a region of high gastric cancer risk indicates a lack of a role for these viruses in gastric carcinomas

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Xiao-yan Yuan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Gastric mucosa tissue was collected from patients with gastroduodenal diseases in a region of norrteastern China showing a high risk of gastric cancer incidence. The presence of EBV and HPV were assayed to investigate the relationship between gastric carcinomas and virus infection. Neither EBV nor HPV DNA was detected in tissue from the patients. The role of EBV and HPV in gastric cancer is not well understood and still needs to be clarified.

Brain structure in people at ultra-high risk of psychosis, patients with first-episode schizophrenia, and healthy controls: a VBM study.

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Nenadic, Igor; Dietzek, Maren; Schönfeld, Nils; Lorenz, Carsten; Gussew, Alexander; Reichenbach, Jürgen R; Sauer, Heinrich; Gaser, Christian; Smesny, Stefan

2015-02-01

Early intervention research in schizophrenia has suggested that brain structural alterations might be present in subjects at high risk of developing psychosis. The heterogeneity of regional effects of these changes, which is established in schizophrenia, however, has not been explored in prodromal or high-risk populations. We used high-resolution MRI and voxel-based morphometry (VBM8) to analyze grey matter differences in 43 ultra high-risk subjects for psychosis (meeting ARMS criteria, identified through CAARMS interviews), 24 antipsychotic-naïve first-episode schizophrenia patients and 49 healthy controls (groups matched for age and gender). Compared to healthy controls, resp., first-episode schizophrenia patients had reduced regional grey matter in left prefrontal, insula, right parietal and left temporal cortices, while the high-risk group showed reductions in right middle temporal and left anterior frontal cortices. When dividing the ultra-high-risk group in those with a genetic risk vs. those with attenuated psychotic symptoms, the former showed left anterior frontal, right caudate, as well as a smaller right hippocampus, and amygdala reduction, while the latter subgroup showed right middle temporal cortical reductions (each compared to healthy controls). Our findings in a clinical psychosis high-risk cohort demonstrate variability of brain structural changes according to subgroup and background of elevated risk, suggesting frontal and possibly also hippocampal/amygdala changes in individuals with genetic susceptibility. Heterogeneity of structural brain changes (as seen in schizophrenia) appears evident even at high-risk stage, prior to potential onset of psychosis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Resuscitation of newborn in high risk deliveries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yousaf, U.F.; Hayat, S.

2015-01-01

High risk deliveries are usually associated with increased neonatal mortality and morbidity. Neonatal resuscitation can appreciably affect the outcome in these types of deliveries. Presence of personnel trained in basic neonatal resuscitation at the time of delivery can play an important role in reducing perinatal complications in neonates at risk. The study was carried out to evaluate the effects of newborn resuscitation on neonatal outcome in high risk deliveries. Methods: This descriptive case series was carried out at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Jinnah Hospital, Lahore. Ninety consecutive high risk deliveries were included and attended by paediatricians trained in newborn resuscitation. Babies delivered by elective Caesarean section, normal spontaneous vaginal deliveries and still births were excluded. Neonatal resuscitation was performed in babies who failed to initiate breathing in the first minute after birth. Data was analyzed using SPSS-16.0. Results: A total of 90 high risk deliveries were included in the study. Emergency caesarean section was the mode of delivery in 94.4% (n=85) cases and spontaneous vaginal delivery in 5.6% (n=5). Preterm pregnancy was the major high risk factor. Newborn resuscitation was required in 37.8% (n=34) of all high risk deliveries (p=0.013). All the new-borns who required resuscitation survived. Conclusion: New-born resuscitation is required in high risk pregnancies and personnel trained in newborn resuscitation should be available at the time of delivery. (author)

A systematic review of childhood obesity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Prevalence and risk factors meta-analysis.

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Farrag, Nesrine S; Cheskin, Lawrence J; Farag, Mohamed K

2017-01-01

Obesity rates are rising globally, but there is evidence that young people in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are at particularly high risk. We systematically searched the literature to map the MENA region for prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity, and examine the underlying risk factors and adverse effects associated with obesity in this region. Inclusion criteria were: English-language, non-basic-science focused articles that used any of the standard obesity definitions and were conducted in the MENA countries within the last five years. We searched PubMed using combinations of key terms ((childhood) OR adolescence) AND obesity) AND (MENA or each country) AND ("last five years" [PDat]). Studies demonstrated an increasing prevalence of obesity among many countries in the MENA region, especially in the Gulf area. Notably, in Kuwait, prevalence rates of overweight and obesity were 25.6% and 34.8% among young males and 20.8% and 20.5% among females. A meta-analysis revealed that physical inactivity, increased screen time, and higher social status were risk factors for childhood obesity. Childhood and adolescent obesity is a major challenge facing countries of the MENA region. Further research is needed to fully investigate the role of nutrition and other specific risk factors and evaluate various interventions to manage this pervasive and growing health problem.

High-resolution sampling and analysis of ambient particulate matter in the Pearl River Delta region of southern China: source apportionment and health risk implications

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Zhou, Shengzhen; Davy, Perry K.; Huang, Minjuan; Duan, Jingbo; Wang, Xuemei; Fan, Qi; Chang, Ming; Liu, Yiming; Chen, Weihua; Xie, Shanju; Ancelet, Travis; Trompetter, William J.

2018-02-01

Hazardous air pollutants, such as trace elements in particulate matter (PM), are known or highly suspected to cause detrimental effects on human health. To understand the sources and associated risks of PM to human health, hourly time-integrated major trace elements in size-segregated coarse (PM2.5-10) and fine (PM2.5) particulate matter were collected at the industrial city of Foshan in the Pearl River Delta region, China. Receptor modeling of the data set by positive matrix factorization (PMF) was used to identify six sources contributing to PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations at the site. Dominant sources included industrial coal combustion, secondary inorganic aerosol, motor vehicles and construction dust along with two intermittent sources (biomass combustion and marine aerosol). The biomass combustion source was found to be a significant contributor to peak PM2.5 episodes along with motor vehicles and industrial coal combustion. Conditional probability function (CPF) analysis was applied to estimate the source locations using the PMF-resolved source contribution coupled with the surface wind direction data. Health exposure risk of hazardous trace elements (Pb, As, Si, Cr, Mn and Ni) and source-specific values were estimated. The total hazard quotient (HQ) of PM2.5 was 2.09, higher than the acceptable limit (HQ = 1). The total carcinogenic risk (CR) was 3.37 × 10-3 for PM2.5, which was 3 times higher than the least stringent limit (1.0 × 10-4). Among the selected trace elements, As and Pb posed the highest non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks to human health, respectively. In addition, our results show that the industrial coal combustion source is the dominant non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risk contributor, highlighting the need for stringent control of this source. This study provides new insight for policy makers to prioritize sources in air quality management and health risk reduction.

Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

2012-12-01

Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant

Ecological risk of methylmercury to piscivorous fish of the Great Lakes region.

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Sandheinrich, Mark B; Bhavsar, Satyendra P; Bodaly, R A; Drevnick, Paul E; Paul, Eric A

2011-10-01

Contamination of fish populations with methylmercury is common in the region of the Laurentian Great Lakes as a result of atmospheric deposition and methylation of inorganic mercury. Using fish mercury monitoring data from natural resource agencies and information on tissue concentrations injurious to fish, we conducted a screening-level risk assessment of mercury to sexually mature female walleye (Sander vitreus), northern pike (Esox lucius), smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) in the Great Lakes and in interior lakes, impoundments, and rivers of the Great Lakes region. The assessment included more than 43,000 measurements of mercury in fish from more than 2000 locations. Sexually mature female fish that exceeded threshold-effect tissue concentrations of 0.20 μg g(-1) wet weight in the whole body occurred at 8% (largemouth bass) to 43% (walleye) of sites. Fish at 3% to 18% of sites were at risk of injury and exceeded 0.30 μg g(-1) where an alteration in reproduction or survival is predicted to occur. Most fish at increased risk were from interior lakes and impoundments. In the Great Lakes, no sites had sexually mature fish that exceeded threshold-effect concentrations. Results of this screening-level assessment indicate that fish at a substantive number of locations within the Great Lakes region are potentially at risk from methylmercury contamination and would benefit from reduction in mercury concentrations.

Implementation of equity in resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation using two-stage stochastic programming.

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Zolfaghari, Mohammad R; Peyghaleh, Elnaz

2015-03-01

This article presents a new methodology to implement the concept of equity in regional earthquake risk mitigation programs using an optimization framework. It presents a framework that could be used by decisionmakers (government and authorities) to structure budget allocation strategy toward different seismic risk mitigation measures, i.e., structural retrofitting for different building structural types in different locations and planning horizons. A two-stage stochastic model is developed here to seek optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing mitigation expenditures, reconstruction expenditures, and especially large losses in highly seismically active countries. To consider fairness in the distribution of financial resources among different groups of people, the equity concept is incorporated using constraints in model formulation. These constraints limit inequity to the user-defined level to achieve the equity-efficiency tradeoff in the decision-making process. To present practical application of the proposed model, it is applied to a pilot area in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Building stocks, structural vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are incorporated to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot area. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures by location and structural type for buildings. These expenditures are sensitive to the amount of available budget and equity consideration for the constant risk aversion. Most significantly, equity is more easily achieved if the budget is unlimited. Conversely, increasing equity where the budget is limited decreases the efficiency. The risk-return tradeoff, equity-reconstruction expenditures tradeoff, and variation of per-capita expected earthquake loss in different income classes are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Single and Cumulative Relations of Social Risk Factors with Children's Dental Health and Care-Utilization Within Regions of the United States.

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Yang, Alyssa J; Gromoske, Andrea N; Olson, Melissa A; Chaffin, Jeffrey G

2016-03-01

The purpose is to examine the relation of social risk factors, and the cumulative burden of social risk factors, on parent-reported dental health and dental care-seeking behavior. National Survey of Children's Health data (2011-2012) were analyzed for US children by Title V Block Grant regions. Multivariate logistic regressions were estimated for ten social risk factors, as well as a cumulative risk index, to find any associations with poor condition of teeth, presence of dental caries, and no dental care visits. Almost all of the risk factors were significantly associated with poor condition of teeth and presence of dental caries for the US. Models associating no dental care visits suggested that low family income (OR 1.58), poor maternal mental health (OR 1.54), high school education or less (OR 1.34), and multi-racial/other race (OR 1.18) were significant factors for the US. Regional variation existed for those risk factors and their association with the outcomes, but income, education, and poor maternal mental health consistently played a significant role in adverse outcomes. The cumulative risk index was strongly related to poor oral health outcomes, with a weaker relationship to dental care utilization. US children experiencing certain social risk factors, such as low family income, high school education or less, and poor maternal mental health, are likely to be at greater risk for poor dental health and low levels of dental-care seeking behavior. Children experiencing multiple social risks are at greater risk for poor oral outcomes than children who experience fewer social risks. An approach that involves the social determinants of health is needed to address these issues.

Incidence, risk factors and clinical epidemiology of melioidosis: a complex socio-ecological emerging infectious disease in the Alor Setar region of Kedah, Malaysia

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Vijayalakshmi Natesan

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Melioidosis, a severe and fatal infectious disease caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei, is believed to an emerging global threat. However, data on the natural history, risk factors, and geographic epidemiology of the disease are still limited. Methods We undertook a retrospective analysis of 145 confirmed cases extracted from a hospital-based Melioidosis Registry set up from 2005 in Hospital Sultanah Bahiyah, Alor Setar, Kedah state, Malaysia, in order to provide a first description of the contemporary incidence, risk factors, and clinical epidemiology of the disease in this putatively high risk region of the country. Results The incidence of melioidosis in Alor Setar is remarkably high at 16.35 per 100,000 population per year. The mean age of patients was 50.40 years, with infection varying nonlinearly with age. Males (75.2%; P 2 = 30.57, P Conclusions Melioidosis represents a complex socio-ecological public health problem in Kedah, being strongly related with age, occupation, rainfall and predisposing chronic diseases, such as diabetes mellitus. Among cases, bacteremic patients were associated with significantly high mortality despite provision of the recommended antibacterial therapy. The burden of this disease is likely to grow in this region unless better informed interventions targeted at high-risk groups and associated diseases are urgently implemented.

A near real time scenario at regional scale for the hydrogeological risk

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Ponziani, F.; Stelluti, M.; Zauri, R.; Berni, N.; Brocca, L.; Moramarco, T.; Salciarini, D.; Tamagnini, C.

2012-04-01

The early warning systems dedicated to landslides and floods represent the Umbria Region Civil Protection Service new generation tools for hydraulic and hydrogeological risk reduction. Following past analyses performed by the Functional Centre (part of the civil protection service dedicated to the monitoring and the evaluation of natural hazards) on the relationship between saturated soil conditions and rainfall thresholds, we have developed an automated early warning system for the landslide risk, called LANDWARN, which generates daily and 72h forecast risk matrix with a dense mesh of 100 x 100m, throughout the region. The system is based on: (a) the 20 days -observed and 72h -predicted rainfall, provided by the local meteorological network and the Local scale Meteorological Model COSMO ME, (b) the assessment of the saturation of soils by: daily extraction of ASCAT satellite data, data from a network of 16 TDR sensors, and a water balance model (developed by the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, CNR, Perugia, Italy) that allows for the prediction of a saturation index for each point of the analysis grid up to a window of 72 h, (c) a Web-GIS platform that combines the data grids of calculated hazard indicators with layers of landslide susceptibility and vulnerability of the territory, in order to produce dynamic risk scenarios. The system is still under development and it's implemented at different scales: the entire region, and a set of known high-risk landslides in Umbria. The system is monitored and regularly reviewed through the back analysis of landslide reports for which the activation date is available. Up to now, the development of the system involves: a) the improvement of the reliability assessment of the condition of soil saturation, a key parameter which is used to dynamically adjust the values of rainfall thresholds used for the declaration of levels of landslide hazard. For this purpose, a procedure was created for the ASCAT

Exploring geographic distributions of high-risk water, sanitation, and hygiene practices and their association with child diarrhea in Uganda

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Mitsuaki Hirai

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Background: High-risk water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH practices are still prevalent in most low-income countries. Because of limited access to WASH, children may be put at an increased risk of diarrheal diseases. Objectives: This study aims to 1 develop a new measure of WASH-induced burden, the WASH Resource Index (WRI, and estimate its correlation with child diarrhea and an additive index of high-risk WASH practices; 2 explore the geographic distribution of high-risk WASH practices, child diarrhea, and summary indices at the cluster level; and 3 examine the association between the WRI and child diarrhea at the individual level. Design: A sample of 7,019 children from the Uganda Demographic and Health Survey 2011 were included in this study. Principal component analysis was used to develop a WRI, and households were classified as WASH poorest, poorer, middle, richer, and richest. A hot spot analysis was conducted to assess whether and how high-risk WASH practices and child diarrhea were geographically clustered. A potential association between the WRI and child diarrhea was examined through a nested regression analysis. Results: High-risk WASH practices were clustered at geographically distant regions from Kampala. The 2-week prevalence of child diarrhea, however, was concentrated in Eastern and East Central regions where high-risk WASH practices were not prevalent. At the individual level, none of the high-risk WASH practices were significantly associated with child diarrhea. Being in the highest WASH quintile was, however, significantly associated with 24.9% lower prevalence of child diarrhea compared to being in the lowest quintile (p<0.05. Conclusions: Only a weak association was found between the WRI and child diarrhea in this study. Future research should explore the potential utility of the WRI to examine WASH-induced burden.

Application of a regional hurricane wind risk forecasting model for wood-frame houses.

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Jain, Vineet Kumar; Davidson, Rachel Ann

2007-02-01

Hurricane wind risk in a region changes over time due to changes in the number, type, locations, vulnerability, and value of buildings. A model was developed to quantitatively estimate changes over time in hurricane wind risk to wood-frame houses (defined in terms of potential for direct economic loss), and to estimate how different factors, such as building code changes and population growth, contribute to that change. The model, which is implemented in a simulation, produces a probability distribution of direct economic losses for each census tract in the study region at each time step in the specified time horizon. By changing parameter values and rerunning the analysis, the effects of different changes in the built environment on the hurricane risk trends can be estimated and the relative effectiveness of hypothetical mitigation strategies can be evaluated. Using a case study application for wood-frame houses in selected counties in North Carolina from 2000 to 2020, this article demonstrates how the hurricane wind risk forecasting model can be used: (1) to provide insight into the dynamics of regional hurricane wind risk-the total change in risk over time and the relative contribution of different factors to that change, and (2) to support mitigation planning. Insights from the case study include, for example, that the many factors contributing to hurricane wind risk for wood-frame houses interact in a way that is difficult to predict a priori, and that in the case study, the reduction in hurricane losses due to vulnerability changes (e.g., building code changes) is approximately equal to the increase in losses due to building inventory growth. The potential for the model to support risk communication is also discussed.

Antibiotics in the coastal environment of the Hailing Bay region, South China Sea: Spatial distribution, source analysis and ecological risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Hui; Liu, Shan; Xu, Xiang-Rong; Zhou, Guang-Jie; Liu, Shuang-Shuang; Yue, Wei-Zhong; Sun, Kai-Feng; Ying, Guang-Guo

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Thirty-eight antibiotics were systematically investigated in marine environment. • The distribution of antibiotics was significantly correlated with COD and NO 3 –N. • Untreated domestic sewage was the primary source of antibiotics. • Fluoroquinolones showed a strong sorption capacity onto sediments. • Oxytetracycline, norfloxacin and erythromycin–H 2 O indicated high risks. - Abstract: In this study, the occurrence and spatial distribution of 38 antibiotics in surface water and sediment samples of the Hailing Bay region, South China Sea, were investigated. Twenty-one, 16 and 15 of 38 antibiotics were detected with the concentrations ranging from <0.08 (clarithromycin) to 15,163 ng/L (oxytetracycline), 2.12 (methacycline) to 1318 ng/L (erythromycin–H 2 O), <1.95 (ciprofloxacin) to 184 ng/g (chlortetracycline) in the seawater, discharged effluent and sediment samples, respectively. The concentrations of antibiotics in the water phase were correlated positively with chemical oxygen demand and nitrate. The source analysis indicated that untreated domestic sewage was the primary source of antibiotics in the study region. Fluoroquinolones showed strong sorption capacity onto sediments due to their high pseudo-partitioning coefficients. Risk assessment indicated that oxytetracycline, norfloxacin and erythromycin–H 2 O posed high risks to aquatic organisms

The high-risk plaque initiative

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Falk, Erling; Sillesen, Henrik; Muntendam, Pieter

2011-01-01

The High-Risk Plaque (HRP) Initiative is a research and development effort to advance the understanding, recognition, and management of asymptomatic individuals at risk for a near-term atherothrombotic event such as myocardial infarction or stroke. Clinical studies using the newest technologies...... have been initiated, including the BioImage Study in which novel approaches are tested in a typical health plan population. Asymptomatic at-risk individuals were enrolled, including a survey-only group (n = 865), a group undergoing traditional risk factor scoring (n = 718), and a group in which all...

Assessing and Responding to the Risks of Global and Societal Changes in the MENA Region

Science.gov (United States)

Lange, Manfred

2017-04-01

Interactions and feedbacks between rapidly increasing multiple pressures on water, energy and food security drive social-ecological systems at multiple scales towards critical thresholds in countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA Region). The MENA Region is expected to experience significantly above-global-mean changes in climatic conditions and has been designated as one of the global "climate change hot spots" (Giorgi, F., 2006). The MENA region is also characterized by one of the highest rates of population growth on Earth, having seen a 3.7-fold increase in population between 1950 to 2000. The region is expected to continue to see a roughly doubling of its population until 2050 (Population Reference Bureau, 2001). Significant gender inequalities and an extremely high rate of youth unemployment are repercussions of such developments that exacerbate the societal pressures and tensions in the region. In addition, the events of the "Arab Spring", have resulted in major political, economic and societal transitions and have frequently been accompanied by significant armed struggles within and between countries of the MENA Region. These developments and the still ongoing conflicts in parts of the region render this region to one of the global "political, societal and humanitarian hot-spots". Responding to these challenges requires integrated science and a close relationship between policy makers and stakeholders, a need that Future Earth (www.futureearth.org) has been designed to respond to. In order to address the requirements of nation states and local communities, Future Earth has adopted a regional governance structure. This has resulted in the establishment of the Future Earth MENA Regional Center at the Cyprus Institute (FEMRC) in Nicosia, Cyprus, as one of five Regional Centers worldwide. One of the major challenges in establishing a regional Future-Earth-related research agenda lies in a comprehensive assessments of the

Gender-specific differences in high-risk sexual behaviors among methamphetamine users in Myanmar-China border city, Muse, Myanmar: who is at risk?

Science.gov (United States)

Saw, Yu Mon; Saw, Thu Nandar; Chan, Nyein; Cho, Su Myat; Jimba, Masamine

2018-02-01

Methamphetamine (MA) use is a significant public health concern due to its negative effects on health. However, to date, no epidemiological research has examined high-risk sexual behaviors (inconsistent condom use, having multiple sexual partners and having a history of sexually transmitted infections) among MA users. This topic is particularly important in Myanmar, which is recognized as one of the key MA production countries in the Southeast Asia region. Therefore, this study examined factors associated with high-risk sexual behaviors among MA users in Muse city, Myanmar. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from January to March 2013 in Muse city, Northern Shan State, Myanmar. In total, 1183 MA users (772 male; 411 female) were recruited using respondent-driven sampling and a computer assisted self-interviewing method. Generalized estimating equation models were used to examine factors associated with high-risk sexual behaviors. A large proportion of MA users engaged in high-risk sexual behaviors (inconsistent condom use: males, 90.7%, females, 85.2%; multiple sexual partners: males, 94.2%, females, 47.2%; and history of STIs: males, 55.7%, females, 56.0%). Among males, being a multiple stimulants drug user (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] =1.77; 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.30-2.41) and being a client of sex workers (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.08-1.83) were risk factors for engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Among females, being a migrant worker (AOR = 2.70; 95% CI = 1.86-3.93) and being employed (AOR = 1.57; 95% CI = 1.13-2.18) were risk factors for engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors as well. High-risk sexual behaviors were particularly pronounced among both male and female MA users. MA prevention programs that reflect gender considerations should be developed to pay more attention to vulnerable populations such as migrants, clients of sex workers, and less educated female MA users.

A procedure for seismic risk reduction in Campania Region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zuccaro, G.; Palmieri, M.; Cicalese, S.; Grassi, V.; Rauci, M.; Maggio, F.

2008-01-01

The Campania Region has set and performed a peculiar procedure in the field of seismic risk reduction. Great attention has been paid to public strategic buildings such as town halls, civil protection buildings and schools. The Ordinance 3274 promulgate in the 2004 by the Italian central authority obliged the owners of strategic buildings to perform seismic analyses within 2008 in order to check the safety of the structures and the adequacy to the use. In the procedure the Campania region, instead of the local authorities, ensure the complete drafting of seismic checks through financial resources of the Italian Government. A regional scientific technical committee has been constituted, composed of scientific experts, academics in seismic engineering. The committee has drawn up guidelines for the processing of seismic analyses. At the same time, the Region has issued a public competition to select technical seismic engineering experts to appoint seismic analysis in accordance with guidelines. The scientific committee has the option of requiring additional documents and studies in order to approve the safety checks elaborated. The Committee is supported by a technical and administrative secretariat composed of a group of expert in seismic engineering. At the moment several seismic safety checks have been completed. The results will be presented in this paper. Moreover, the policy to mitigate the seismic risk, set by Campania region, was to spend the most of the financial resources available on structural strengthening of public strategic buildings rather than in safety checks. A first set of buildings of which the response under seismic action was already known by data and studies of vulnerability previously realised, were selected for immediate retrofitting designs. Secondly, an other set of buildings were identified for structural strengthening. These were selected by using the criteria specified in the Guide Line prepared by the Scientific Committee and based on

A procedure for seismic risk reduction in Campania Region

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Zuccaro, G.; Palmieri, M.; Maggiò, F.; Cicalese, S.; Grassi, V.; Rauci, M.

2008-07-01

The Campania Region has set and performed a peculiar procedure in the field of seismic risk reduction. Great attention has been paid to public strategic buildings such as town halls, civil protection buildings and schools. The Ordinance 3274 promulgate in the 2004 by the Italian central authority obliged the owners of strategic buildings to perform seismic analyses within 2008 in order to check the safety of the structures and the adequacy to the use. In the procedure the Campania region, instead of the local authorities, ensure the complete drafting of seismic checks through financial resources of the Italian Government. A regional scientific technical committee has been constituted, composed of scientific experts, academics in seismic engineering. The committee has drawn up guidelines for the processing of seismic analyses. At the same time, the Region has issued a public competition to select technical seismic engineering experts to appoint seismic analysis in accordance with guidelines. The scientific committee has the option of requiring additional documents and studies in order to approve the safety checks elaborated. The Committee is supported by a technical and administrative secretariat composed of a group of expert in seismic engineering. At the moment several seismic safety checks have been completed. The results will be presented in this paper. Moreover, the policy to mitigate the seismic risk, set by Campania region, was to spend the most of the financial resources available on structural strengthening of public strategic buildings rather than in safety checks. A first set of buildings of which the response under seismic action was already known by data and studies of vulnerability previously realised, were selected for immediate retrofitting designs. Secondly, an other set of buildings were identified for structural strengthening. These were selected by using the criteria specified in the Guide Line prepared by the Scientific Committee and based on

Hazard-to-Risk: High-Performance Computing Simulations of Large Earthquake Ground Motions and Building Damage in the Near-Fault Region

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Miah, M.; Rodgers, A. J.; McCallen, D.; Petersson, N. A.; Pitarka, A.

2017-12-01

We are running high-performance computing (HPC) simulations of ground motions for large (magnitude, M=6.5-7.0) earthquakes in the near-fault region (steel moment frame buildings throughout the near-fault domain. For ground motions, we are using SW4, a fourth order summation-by-parts finite difference time-domain code running on 10,000-100,000's of cores. Earthquake ruptures are generated using the Graves and Pitarka (2017) method. We validated ground motion intensity measurements against Ground Motion Prediction Equations. We considered two events (M=6.5 and 7.0) for vertical strike-slip ruptures with three-dimensional (3D) basin structures, including stochastic heterogeneity. We have also considered M7.0 scenarios for a Hayward Fault rupture scenario which effects the San Francisco Bay Area and northern California using both 1D and 3D earth structure. Dynamic, inelastic response of canonical buildings is computed with the NEVADA, a nonlinear, finite-deformation finite element code. Canonical buildings include 3-, 9-, 20- and 40-story steel moment frame buildings. Damage potential is tracked by the peak inter-story drift (PID) ratio, which measures the maximum displacement between adjacent floors of the building and is strongly correlated with damage. PID ratios greater 1.0 generally indicate non-linear response and permanent deformation of the structure. We also track roof displacement to identify permanent deformation. PID (damage) for a given earthquake scenario (M, slip distribution, hypocenter) is spatially mapped throughout the SW4 domain with 1-2 km resolution. Results show that in the near fault region building damage is correlated with peak ground velocity (PGV), while farther away (> 20 km) it is better correlated with peak ground acceleration (PGA). We also show how simulated ground motions have peaks in the response spectra that shift to longer periods for larger magnitude events and for locations of forward directivity, as has been reported by

Trends and patterns of modern contraceptive use and relationships with high-risk births and child mortality in Burkina Faso

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Abdoulaye Maïga

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Background: In sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have stressed the importance of spatial heterogeneity analysis in modern contraceptive use and the relationships with high-risk births. Objective: This paper aims to analyse the association between modern contraceptive use, distribution of birth risk, and under-five child mortality at both national and regional levels in Burkina Faso. Design: The last three Demographic and Health Surveys – conducted in Burkina Faso in 1998, 2003, and 2010 – enabled descriptions of differentials, trends, and associations between modern contraceptive use, total fertility rates (TFR, and factors associated with high-risk births and under-five child mortality. Multivariate models, adjusted by covariates of cultural and socio-economic background and contact with health system, were used to investigate the relationship between birth risk factors and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR. Results: Overall, Burkina Faso's modern contraception level remains low (15.4% in 2010, despite significant increases during the last decade. However, there are substantial variations in mCPR by region, and health facility contact was positively associated with mCPR increase. Women's fertility history and cultural and socio-economic background were also significant factors in predicting use of modern contraception. Low modern contraceptive use is associated with higher birth risks and increased child mortality. This association is stronger in the Sahel, Est, and Sud-Ouest regions. Even though all factors in high-risk births were associated with under-five mortality, it should be stressed that short birth spacing ranked as the highest risk in relation to mortality of children. Conclusions: Programmes that target sub-national differentials and leverage women's health system contacts to inform women about family planning opportunities may be effective in improving coverage, quality, and equity of modern contraceptive use. Improving

Risk factors for prevalence of pig parasitoses in Mbeya Region, Tanzania.

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Kabululu, Mwemezi Lutakyawa; Ngowi, Helena Aminiel; Kimera, Sharadhuli Iddi; Lekule, Faustin Paul; Kimbi, Eliakunda Casmir; Johansen, Maria Vang

2015-09-15

A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine risk factors for prevalence of common endo- and ectoparasites of pigs kept by smallholder farmers in Mbozi and Mbeya (Rural) districts of Mbeya Region, in Tanzania. A total of 482 pigs from 220 households of 16 villages, eight in each district were randomly selected and examined. Prevalence of Taenia solium cysticercosis was 11.5%, gastrointestinal nematodes 63.7% and ectoparasites 21.2% based on Ag-ELISA, McMaster technique and full body searches/ear scrapings, respectively. Nematode eggs identified were strongyles (Oesophagostomum spp. and Trichostrongylus spp.), Ascaris suum, Trichuris suis and Strongyloides ransomi with prevalence of 57.4%, 17.5%, 5.3% and 1.1%, respectively. Four groups of ectoparasites were identified, i.e. lice (Haematopinus suis), ticks (Rhipicephalus spp., Amblyomma spp., Haemaphysalis spp. and Boophilus spp.), fleas (Ctenocephalides canis) and mites (Sarcoptes scabiei var. suis and Demodex phylloides), with prevalence of 19.1%, 2.1%, 0.4%, and 1.2%, respectively. Pigs in Mbeya (Rural) District had higher odds for porcine cysticercosis (OR=2.63, 95% CI: [1.22-5.55]). Poor pen hygiene and infrequent antiparasitic treatment were identified to be risk factors for prevalence of nematode infections (OR=1.95 [1.09-3.52] and OR=1.78 [1.06-2.94], respectively). The odds for high nematode burdens increased in cases of poor pen hygiene (OR=4.20 [2.54-6.62]) and poor feed quality (OR=3.7 [1.66-8.33]). Pigs not treated with antiparasitic drugs within the last three months had higher odds for ectoparasite (OR=4.0 [1.78-9.09]) and lice infestations (OR=8.33 [1.96-14.28]) than treated pigs. This study has shown that parasitoses constitute a major burden for smallholder pigs in Mbeya Region and major risk factors included infrequent antiparasitic treatment, poor pen hygiene and poor feed quality. Cost-effective intervention strategies are needed to improve pork production, secure pig welfare and ensure

Risk factors control in patients with cardiovascular diseases in Ivanovo region: possibilities of a regional registry

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Belova O.A.

2016-03-01

Conclusion ― In primary care units of Ivanovo region in 2015 patients were insufficiently asked about their lifestyle (smoking, physical activity, eating habits, as well as their body weight was measured. If a patient had a risk factor he usually receive a proper advice. For BP, weight and blood lipids the goals were achieved rare.

Regional flood reconstruction in Kullu District (Himachal Pradesh, India): implication for Disaster Risk Management

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Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; Stoffel, Markus; Trappmann, Daniel; Shekhar, Mayank; Bhattacharyya, Amalava

2016-04-01

Floods are a common natural hazard in the Western Indian Himalayas. They usually occur when humid monsoon airs are lifted along the Himalayan relief, thereby creating intense orographic rainfall and runoff, a process which is often enhanced by simultaneous snowmelt. Monsoon floods are considered a major threat in the region and frequently affect inhabited valleys, disturbing the status quo of communities, stressing the future welfare and condition of their economic development. Given the assumption that ongoing and future climatic changes may impact on monsoon patterns and extreme precipitation, the implementation of adaptation policies in this region is critically needed in order to improve local resilience of Himalayan communities. However, its success implementation is highly dependent on system knowledge and hence reliable baseline data of past disasters. In this communication, we demonstrate how newly gained knowledge on past flood incidents may improve flood hazard and risk assessments. Based on growth-ring analysis of trees growing in the floodplains and other, more classical paleo-hydrology techniques, we reconstruct the regional flood activity for the last decades. This information is then included as non-systematic data into the regional flood frequency by using Bayesian Markov Monte Carlo Chain algorithms, so as to analyse the impact of the additional data on flood hazard assessments. Moreover, through a detailed analysis of three flood risk hotspots, we demonstrate how the newly gained knowledge on past flood disasters derived from indirect proxies can explain failures in the implementation of disaster risk management (DRM). Our methodology allowed identification of thirty-four unrecorded flood events at the study sites located in the upper reaches since the early 20th century, and thus completion of the existing flood history in the region based on flow measurements in the lower part of the catchment. We observe that 56% of the floods occurred

Regional Ecological Risk Assessment in the Huai River Watershed during 2010–2015

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Yan Lu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Ecosystem deterioration has been and is still a serious threat to human survival and regional economic development. Theoretical and methodological challenges exist in assessing ecological risk of watershed ecosystem that is imposed by natural changes or human activities. To fill this research gap, this research proposes an interdisciplinary and quantitative methodology based on some techniques such as the Procedure for Ecological Tiered Assessment of Risk (PETAR, the Entropy, and the Celluar Automata Markov (CA-Markov. We focused on six vulnerable environmental variables, namely land-use change, water quantity, water quality, gross domestic product (GDP, environmental pollutants, and soil erosion in the Huai River watershed in the Henan Province in order to build multi-dimensional quantitative method. Further, the Coupling Coordination Degree Model is constructed, and the “threshold index” is also addressed to reflect the limitation of ecological risk. Our results show that the spatio-temperal distribution of the eco-environmental quality has greatly varied across this study area during different time spans. Natural eco-environmental quality has moderately degraded in 70% of this study area (mainly agricultural region, at a prefectural level from 2000 to 2010, and has slightly improved over the agricultural region (<170 m above sea level during 2010–2015. However, when considering negative stressors from human social system on the natural ecosystem, the extent and distribution of the ecological risk varied across the whole area during 2000–2015. The results show that there was almost 90.40% of this region under the ecological risk, with varying extents over the study time, e.g., Kaifeng, Shangqiu, Xuchang, and Xinyang, with a moderate deterioration in the eco-environmental quality, and Zhengzhou with a slight deterioration in the eco-environmental quality. This paper provides a valuable perspective for governments at all levels to manage

Patients at High-Risk for Surgical Site Infection.

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Mueck, Krislynn M; Kao, Lillian S

Surgical site infections (SSIs) are a significant healthcare quality issue, resulting in increased morbidity, disability, length of stay, resource utilization, and costs. Identification of high-risk patients may improve pre-operative counseling, inform resource utilization, and allow modifications in peri-operative management to optimize outcomes. Review of the pertinent English-language literature. High-risk surgical patients may be identified on the basis of individual risk factors or combinations of factors. In particular, statistical models and risk calculators may be useful in predicting infectious risks, both in general and for SSIs. These models differ in the number of variables; inclusion of pre-operative, intra-operative, or post-operative variables; ease of calculation; and specificity for particular procedures. Furthermore, the models differ in their accuracy in stratifying risk. Biomarkers may be a promising way to identify patients at high risk of infectious complications. Although multiple strategies exist for identifying surgical patients at high risk for SSIs, no one strategy is superior for all patients. Further efforts are necessary to determine if risk stratification in combination with risk modification can reduce SSIs in these patient populations.

Under-utilisation of high-dose-rate brachytherapy boost in men with intermediate-high risk prostate cancer treated with external beam radiotherapy.

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Ong, Wee Loon; Evans, Sue M; Millar, Jeremy L

2018-04-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of high-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDR-BT) boost with definitive external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) in prostate cancer (CaP) management. The study population comprised men with intermediate-high risk CaP captured in the population-based Prostate Cancer Outcome Registry Victoria (PCOR-Vic), treated with EBRT from January 2010 to December 2015. The primary outcome is the proportion of men who received HDR-BT boost. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to evaluate the effect of patient-, tumour- and treatment-factors on the likelihood of HDR-BT use. Medicare Benefit Schedule (MBS) data was accessed to evaluate the Australia-wide pattern of HDR-BT use. One thousand eight hundred and six patients were included in this study - 886 (49%) intermediate-risk, and 920 (51%) high-risk CaP patients. Overall, only 124 (7%) patients had EBRT + HDR-BT - 47 (5%) intermediate-risk and 77 (8%) high-risk CaP patients (P = 0.01). There is higher proportion of patients who had HDR-BT in public institutions (7% public vs. 3% private, P = 0.005) and in metropolitan centres (9% metropolitan vs. 2% regional, P Victorian men with CaP. The decline in HDR-BT use was also observed nationally. © 2017 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists.

ECONOMIC MECHANISMS OF POPULATION PROTECTION AGAINST PENSION RISKS AS A TOOL FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION

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Lyubov V. Grigoryeva

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The problem of finding effective economic instruments for socio-economic development of the regions has recently become of increasing relevance. Strengthening the regional differentiation, highlighting the leading and lagging regions, the lack of own resources in the regions has forced regional authorities to use new instruments of territorial development, in particular, economic mechanisms of protection against pension risks. The use of these mechanisms has a dual effect (economic and social, due to the attraction of the regions with additional financial resources in the form of “long money” and increasing the protection of citizens against pension risks (the increase in the level of pension payments. The analysis of the current use of economic mechanisms of protection against pension risks in the regions of the Southern Federal District helped to articulate key issues of their use, in particular, low pension literacy of the population, distrust towards specialized financial institutions, the investment policy of the regions does not take into account the possibility of attracting private pension funds into regional projects, and there is no mechanism to support regional National Pension Fund. Territorial analysis revealed the potential application of economic mechanisms to protect against pension risks in the regions of the Southern Federal District as a tool for socio-economic development, which is based on the existence of regional pension funds and insurance companies (providing services for pension insurance, as well as participation in private pension provision. The Krasnodar, Rostov and Volgograd regions have the highest potential among the regions of the Southern Federal District, as there already exist regional National Pension Fund, and the participation in private pension insurance is confirmed by the statistics of the contributions paid. The study of existing economic mechanisms to protect against pension risks will provide the

Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

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Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2013-04-01

Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge

A high-resolution regional reanalysis for the European CORDEX region

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Bollmeyer, Christoph; Keller, Jan; Ohlwein, Christian; Wahl, Sabrina

2015-04-01

Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Weather Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations, renewable energy applications). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. The work presented here focuses on two regional reanalyses for Europe and Germany. The European reanalysis COSMO-REA6 matches the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km). Nested into COSMO-REA6 is COSMO-REA2, a convective-scale reanalysis with 2km resolution for Germany. COSMO-REA6 comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO and is complemented by a special soil moisture analysis and boundary conditions given by ERA-Interim data. COSMO-REA2 also uses the nudging scheme complemented by a latent heat nudging of radar information. The reanalysis data set currently covers 17 years (1997-2013) for COSMO-REA6 and 4 years (2010-2013) for COSMO-REA2 with a very large set of output variables and a high temporal output step of hourly 3D-fields and quarter-hourly 2D-fields. The evaluation

Regional radiotherapy in high-risk breast cancer: is the issue solved?

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Krause, M; Petersen, C; Offersen, B V

2015-01-01

Adjuvant radiotherapy is the treatment standard for breast cancer with lymph node metastases after breast-conserving surgery or mastectomy. The inclusion of regional lymph nodes into the treatment volumes has been a question in recent clinical trials. Their impact on treatment standards and open...

Governance of innovation and appropriateness of hospitalization for high-risk pregnancy: the TOCOMAT system.

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Tagliaferri, Salvatore; Ippolito, Adelaide; Cuccaro, Patrizia; Annunziata, Maria Laura; Campanile, Marta; Di Lieto, Andrea

2013-07-01

Over the last 30 years, a great increase in the application of technologies in public health, with an undisputed impact on both the effectiveness of performance and the investment and management costs, has occurred. This evidence has induced the development of assessment tools to clarify the relationships among resources, outputs, and outcomes of technological innovations. This analysis was developed in order to examine the use of a telematic system for reporting remotely transmitted cardiotocographic traces, specifically (1) its impact on the health organization and on the appropriateness of the care setting used and (2) the efficiency of its adoption in a regional network. We adopted a case-control study on patients' medical records during the first 4 months of 2009, 2010, and 2011 and a cost analysis of resources used for the creation of a computerized telecardiotocography network connecting eight peripheral areas to the operations center. The case-control study showed a reduction in the average hospital stay days for high-risk patients (1.32) and for low-risk patient (1.7) with a total of cost savings of €89,628 for high-risk patients and €170,170 for low-risk patients. The cost savings of the regional network was €20,769.04. The adoption of a remote transmission system of cardiotocography provided a managerial and economic advantage in the reduction of inappropriate admissions for prepartum symptoms and an improvement in the admission indicators (hospital stay days).

Hepatitis B Infection among high risk population: a seroepidemiological survey in Southwest of Iran

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Khosravani Abdolmajid

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Hepatitis B virus (HBV infection remains a major global health problem. This study aimed to assess the prevalence and risk behaviors for HBV infection among high risk groups in Kohgiloyeh and Boyerahmad province, in Southwest of Iran. Methods Blood samples were collected from 2009 subjects, between 2009 and 2010 in Kohgiloyeh and Boyerahmad province, in southwest of Iran. Recruited subjects were the high risk groups for HBV infection, including inmates, injecting drug users, health care workers, patients on maintenance haemodialysis, hemophilic patients and patients with a history of blood transfusion. Their serum samples were tested for the presence of antibodies to hepatitis B core antigen (HBc IgM, IgG by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA. Seropositive specimens were tested for HBsAg. Demographic features of participants were recorded during sample collecting. Results HBsAg was detected in 24 of the 2009 subjects, giving an overall prevalence of 1.2%. All HBsAg positive cases were males. The prevalence of HBsAg among injection drug users was 3.2%. Significant correlation was found between HBV infection and drug abuse, level of education and place of residence (p Conclusion Based on the findings of this study, incarceration and drug abuse are the most important risk factors for acquiring HBV infection in this region. Modifying behavior, improving the individual education and expanding the HBV vaccination coverage may reduce the rate of infection in the region.

Prevalence and risk factors associated with Theileria parva infection in cattle in three regions of Tanzania

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Kerario, Isack I.; Simuunza, Martin C; Chenyambuga, Sebastian W

2017-01-01

of ECF in Tanzania has continued to be a challenge due to inadequate epidemiological information. The main objective of this study was to determine the epidemiological situation of Theileria parva infections in cattle kept under pastoral and agro-pastoral farming systems in Mara, Singida, and Mbeya...... not found to be significant predictors of being PCR positive for T. parva. The present study showed high variation in tick burden and T. parva prevalence across the regions. Therefore, different strategic planning and cost-effective control measures for ticks and T. parva infection should be implemented...... regions of Tanzania. Blood samples were collected from 648 cattle in the three regions. Genomic DNA was extracted and amplified in a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using T. parva-specific primers targeting the 104-kD antigen (P104) gene. In addition, information was collected on the possible risk factors...

Mortality and recurrence rates among systemically untreated high risk breast cancer patients included in the DBCG 77 trials

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Jensen, Maj Britt; Nielsen, Torsten O.; Knoop, Ann S.

2018-01-01

Background: Following loco-regional treatment for early breast cancer accurate prognostication is essential for communicating benefits of systemic treatment. The aim of this study was to determine time to recurrence and long-term mortality rates in high risk patients according to patient characte......Background: Following loco-regional treatment for early breast cancer accurate prognostication is essential for communicating benefits of systemic treatment. The aim of this study was to determine time to recurrence and long-term mortality rates in high risk patients according to patient...... and EGFR positive. Multivariate categorical and fractional polynomials (MFP) models were used to construct prognostic subsets by clinicopathologic characteristics. Results: In a multivariate model, mortality rate was significantly associated with age, tumor size, nodal status, invasion, histological type...

Enrichment of risk SNPs in regulatory regions implicate diverse tissues in Parkinson's disease etiology.

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Coetzee, Simon G; Pierce, Steven; Brundin, Patrik; Brundin, Lena; Hazelett, Dennis J; Coetzee, Gerhard A

2016-07-27

Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of Parkinson's disease (PD) revealed at least 26 risk loci, with associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located in non-coding DNA having unknown functions in risk. In order to explore in which cell types these SNPs (and their correlated surrogates at r(2) ≥ 0.8) could alter cellular function, we assessed their location overlap with histone modification regions that indicate transcription regulation in 77 diverse cell types. We found statistically significant enrichment of risk SNPs at 12 loci in active enhancers or promoters. We investigated 4 risk loci in depth that were most significantly enriched (-logeP > 14) and contained 8 putative enhancers in the different cell types. These enriched loci, along with eQTL associations, were unexpectedly present in non-neuronal cell types. These included lymphocytes, mesendoderm, liver- and fat-cells, indicating that cell types outside the brain are involved in the genetic predisposition to PD. Annotating regulatory risk regions within specific cell types may unravel new putative risk mechanisms and molecular pathways that contribute to PD development.

Automated breast tissue density assessment using high order regional texture descriptors in mammography

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Law, Yan Nei; Lieng, Monica Keiko; Li, Jingmei; Khoo, David Aik-Aun

2014-03-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer and second leading cause of cancer death among women in the US. The relative survival rate is lower among women with a more advanced stage at diagnosis. Early detection through screening is vital. Mammography is the most widely used and only proven screening method for reliably and effectively detecting abnormal breast tissues. In particular, mammographic density is one of the strongest breast cancer risk factors, after age and gender, and can be used to assess the future risk of disease before individuals become symptomatic. A reliable method for automatic density assessment would be beneficial and could assist radiologists in the evaluation of mammograms. To address this problem, we propose a density classification method which uses statistical features from different parts of the breast. Our method is composed of three parts: breast region identification, feature extraction and building ensemble classifiers for density assessment. It explores the potential of the features extracted from second and higher order statistical information for mammographic density classification. We further investigate the registration of bilateral pairs and time-series of mammograms. The experimental results on 322 mammograms demonstrate that (1) a classifier using features from dense regions has higher discriminative power than a classifier using only features from the whole breast region; (2) these high-order features can be effectively combined to boost the classification accuracy; (3) a classifier using these statistical features from dense regions achieves 75% accuracy, which is a significant improvement from 70% accuracy obtained by the existing approaches.

Variation in mutation spectrum partly explains regional differences in the breast cancer risk of female BRCA mutation carriers in the Netherlands.

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Vos, Janet R; Teixeira, Natalia; van der Kolk, Dorina M; Mourits, Marian J E; Rookus, Matti A; van Leeuwen, Flora E; Collée, Margriet; van Asperen, Christi J; Mensenkamp, Arjen R; Ausems, Margreet G E M; van Os, Theo A M; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne E J; Gómez-Garcia, Encarna B; Vasen, Hans F; Brohet, Richard M; van der Hout, Annemarie H; Jansen, Liesbeth; Oosterwijk, Jan C; de Bock, Geertruida H

2014-11-01

We aimed to quantify previously observed relatively high cancer risks in BRCA2 mutation carriers (BRCA2 carriers) older than 60 in the Northern Netherlands, and to analyze whether these could be explained by mutation spectrum or population background risk. This consecutive cohort study included all known pathogenic BRCA1/2 carriers in the Northern Netherlands (N = 1,050). Carrier and general reference populations were: BRCA1/2 carriers in the rest of the Netherlands (N = 2,013) and the general population in both regions. Regional differences were assessed with HRs and ORs. HRs were adjusted for birth year and mutation spectrum. All BRCA1 carriers and BRCA2 carriers younger than 60 had a significantly lower breast cancer risk in the Northern Netherlands; HRs were 0.66 and 0.64, respectively. Above age 60, the breast cancer risk in BRCA2 carriers in the Northern Netherlands was higher than in the rest of the Netherlands [HR, 3.99; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.11-14.35]. Adjustment for mutational spectrum changed the HRs for BRCA1, BRCA2 <60, and BRCA2 ≥60 years by -3%, +32%, and +11% to 0.75, 0.50, and 2.61, respectively. There was no difference in background breast cancer incidence between the two regions (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.97-1.09). Differences in mutation spectrum only partly explain the regional differences in breast cancer risk in BRCA2 carriers, and for an even smaller part in BRCA1 carriers. The increased risk in BRCA2 carriers older than 60 may warrant extension of intensive breast screening beyond age 60. ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

High-resolution sampling and analysis of air particulate matter in the Pear River Delta region of Southern China: source apportionment and health risk assessment

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Zhou, S.; Day, P. K.; Wang, X.

2017-12-01

Hazardous air pollutants, such as trace elements in particulate matters (PM), are known or highly suspected to cause detrimental effects on human health. To understand the sources and associated risks of PM to human health, hourly time-integrated major trace elements in size-segregated coarse (PM10-2.5) and fine (PM2.5) particulate matter were collected and examined in an industrial city of Foshan in the Pearl River Delta region, China. Receptor modeling of the dataset by positive matrix factorization (PMF) was used to identify six sources contributing to PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations at the site. Dominant sources included industrial coal combustion, secondary inorganic aerosol, motor vehicles and construction dust along with two intermittent sources, biomass combustion and marine aerosol. The biomass combustion source was found to be a significant contributor to peak PM2.5 episodes along with motor vehicles and industrial coal combustion. Conditional probability function (CPF) was applied to estimate the local source effects from wind direction using the PMF-resolved source contribution coupled with the surface wind direction data. Health exposure risk for hazardous trace elements (Pb, As, Cr, Ni, Zn, V, Cu, Mn, Fe) and source-specific values were estimated. The total hazard quotient (total HQ =HI) of PM2.5 was 2.09, which is two times higher than the acceptable limit (HQ = 1). The total carcinogenic risk was 3.37*10-3 for PM2.5, which was three orders higher than the acceptable limit (i.e. 1.0*10-6). Among the selected trace elements, As and Pb posed the highest non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks for human health, respectively. In additional, our results showed that industrial coal combustion source was the dominant non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks contributor, highlighting the need for stringent control of this source. This study can provide new insight for policy makers to prioritize sources in air quality management and health risk reduction.

High-resolution sampling and analysis of ambient particulate matter in the Pearl River Delta region of southern China: source apportionment and health risk implications

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S. Zhou

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Hazardous air pollutants, such as trace elements in particulate matter (PM, are known or highly suspected to cause detrimental effects on human health. To understand the sources and associated risks of PM to human health, hourly time-integrated major trace elements in size-segregated coarse (PM2.5–10 and fine (PM2.5 particulate matter were collected at the industrial city of Foshan in the Pearl River Delta region, China. Receptor modeling of the data set by positive matrix factorization (PMF was used to identify six sources contributing to PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations at the site. Dominant sources included industrial coal combustion, secondary inorganic aerosol, motor vehicles and construction dust along with two intermittent sources (biomass combustion and marine aerosol. The biomass combustion source was found to be a significant contributor to peak PM2.5 episodes along with motor vehicles and industrial coal combustion. Conditional probability function (CPF analysis was applied to estimate the source locations using the PMF-resolved source contribution coupled with the surface wind direction data. Health exposure risk of hazardous trace elements (Pb, As, Si, Cr, Mn and Ni and source-specific values were estimated. The total hazard quotient (HQ of PM2.5 was 2.09, higher than the acceptable limit (HQ = 1. The total carcinogenic risk (CR was 3.37 × 10−3 for PM2.5, which was 3 times higher than the least stringent limit (1.0 × 10−4. Among the selected trace elements, As and Pb posed the highest non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks to human health, respectively. In addition, our results show that the industrial coal combustion source is the dominant non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risk contributor, highlighting the need for stringent control of this source. This study provides new insight for policy makers to prioritize sources in air quality management and health risk reduction.

Influences of Regional Development on Land Use of Nagara Basin and Flood Risk Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Banba Michiko

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Land developments, and construction of factories or logistic centers should be implemented with the wellconsidered land use plans by taking account of disaster risks to improve the resilience of region to mitigate damages. In this paper, the relationship between regional development and land use from the perspective of flood risk control. Nagara basin in Gifu prefecture (Gifu, Mino, and Seki City, where transportation network has been developed to raise the potential for more development, is selected as a case study site. First, changes of industrial structures of the region and its influences on land use were analyzed. Then, possible flood control measures were summarized, and issues from the land use perspective are analysed

Developing high-resolution spatial data of migration corridors for avian species of concern in regions of high potential wind development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Katzner, Todd [West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, WV (United States)

2014-06-15

The future of the US economy, our national security, and our environmental quality all depend on decreasing our reliance on foreign oil and on fossil fuels. An essential component of decreasing this reliance is the development of alternative energy sources. Wind power is among the most important alternative energy sources currently available, and the mid-Atlantic region is a primary focus for wind power development. In addition to being important to the development of wind power, the mid-Atlantic region holds a special responsibility for the conservation of the eastern North America's golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). This small population breeds in northeastern Canada, winters in the southern Appalachians, and nearly all of these birds pass through the mid-Atlantic region twice each year. Movement of these birds is not random and, particularly during spring and autumn, migrating golden eagles concentrate in a narrow 30-50 mile wide corridor in central Pennsylvania. Thus, because the fate of these rare birds may depend on responsible management of the habitat they use it is critical to use research to identify ways to mitigate prospective impacts on this and similar raptor species. The goal of this project was to develop high-resolution spatial risk maps showing migration corridors of and habitat use by eastern golden eagles in regions of high potential for wind development. To accomplish this, we first expanded existing models of raptor migration for the eastern USA to identify broad-scale migration patterns. We then used data from novel high-resolution tracking devices to discover routes of passage and detailed flight behavior of individual golden eagles throughout the eastern USA. Finally, we integrated these data and models to predict population-level migration patterns and individual eagle flight behavior on migration. We then used this information to build spatially explicit, probabilistic maps showing relative risk to birds from wind development. This

A multicriteria framework for producing local, regional, and national insect and disease risk maps

Science.gov (United States)

Frank J. Jr. Krist; Frank J. Sapio

2010-01-01

The construction of the 2006 National Insect and Disease Risk Map, compiled by the USDA Forest Service, State and Private Forestry Area, Forest Health Protection Unit, resulted in the development of a GIS-based, multicriteria approach for insect and disease risk mapping that can account for regional variations in forest health concerns and threats. This risk mapping...

A high-resolution regional reanalysis for Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Ohlwein, C.

2015-12-01

Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. The regional reanalysis for Europe matches the domain of the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km) and comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO complemented by a special soil moisture analysis with boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim data. The reanalysis data set covers the past 20 years. Extensive evaluation of the reanalysis is performed using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations indicating a better representation of small scale variability. Further, the evaluation shows an added value of the regional reanalysis with respect to the forcing ERA Interim reanalysis and compared to a pure high-resolution dynamical downscaling approach without data assimilation.

Rapid Point-of-Care Diagnostic Test for Syphilis in High-Risk Populations, Manaus, Brazil

OpenAIRE

Sabid?, Meritxell; Benzaken, Adele S.; de Andrade Rodrigues, ?nio Jos?; Mayaud, Philippe

2009-01-01

: We assessed the acceptability and operational suitability of a rapid point-of-care syphilis test and identified barriers to testing among high-risk groups and healthcare professionals in a sexually transmitted infections clinic in Manaus, Brazil. Use of this test could considerably alleviate the impact of syphilis in hard-to-reach populations in the Amazon region of Brazil.

Potential Risk Factors for the Onset of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome Type 1: A Systematic Literature Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tracey Pons

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Anaesthetists in the acute and chronic pain teams are often involved in treating Complex Regional Pain Syndromes. Current literature about the risk factors for the onset of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome Type 1 (CRPS 1 remains sparse. This syndrome has a low prevalence, a highly variable presentation, and no gold standard for diagnosis. In the research setting, the pathogenesis of the syndrome continues to be elusive. There is a growing body of literature that addresses efficacy of a wide range of interventions as well as the likely mechanisms that contribute to the onset of CRPS 1. The objective for this systematic search of the literature focuses on determining the potential risk factors for the onset of CRPS 1. Eligible articles were analysed, dated 1996 to April 2014, and potential risk factors for the onset of CRPS 1 were identified from 10 prospective and 6 retrospective studies. Potential risk factors for the onset of CRPS 1 were found to include being female, particularly postmenopausal female, ankle dislocation or intra-articular fracture, immobilisation, and a report of higher than usual levels of pain in the early phases of trauma. It is not possible to draw definite conclusions as this evidence is heterogeneous and of mixed quality, relevance, and weighting strength against bias and has not been confirmed across multiple trials or in homogenous studies.

Ecological risk analysis as a key factor in environmental safety system development in the Arctic region of the Russian Federation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bolsunovskaya, Y A; Bolsunovskaya, L M

2015-01-01

Due to specific natural and climatic conditions combined with human intervention, the Arctic is regarded as a highly sensitive region to any environmental pressures. Arctic projects require continuous environmental monitoring. This poses for the government of the Russian Federation (RF) a tremendous task concerning the formation and implementation of sustainable nature management policy within the international framework. The current article examines the basic constraints to the effective ecological safety system implementation in the Arctic region of the RF. The ecological risks and their effects which influence the sustainable development of the region were analyzed. The model of complex environmental safety system was proposed

Risk Factors and Spatial Clusters of Cryptosporidium Infection among School-Age Children in a Rural Region of Eastern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Hao; He, Jianfeng; Wang, Li; Zhang, Rong; Ding, Zhen; Hu, Wenbiao

2018-05-06

The epidemiological features of Cryptosporidium infection among school-age children in China still remain unclear. Hereby, a cross-sectional study of 1637 children aged 3⁻9 years was designed to investigate the risk factors and spatial clusters of Cryptosporidium infection in a rural region of Eastern China. Stool specimens collected from participants were examined using the auramine-phenol and modified acid-fast staining. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to identify the risk factors of Cryptospordium infection. The spatial clusters were analyzed by a discrete Poisson model using SaTScan software. Our results showed that the overall prevalence of Cryptosporidium infection was 11‰ in the research region. At the age of 3⁻6 years (odds ratios (OR) = 3.072, 95% confidence intervals (CI) : 1.001⁻9.427), not washing hands before eating and after defecation (OR = 3.003, 95% CI: 1.060⁻8.511) were recognized as risk factors. Furthermore, a high-risk spatial cluster (relative risk = 4.220, p = 0.025) was identified. These findings call for effective sustainable interventions including family and school-based hygienic education to reduce the prevalence of Cryptosporidium infection. Therefore, an early warning system based spatiotemporal models with risk factors is required to further improve the effectiveness and efficiency of cryptosporidiosis control in the future.

Regional probabilistic risk assessment of heavy metals in different environmental media and land uses: An urbanization-affected drinking water supply area

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Chi; Cai, Yimin; Wang, Tieyu; Xiao, Rongbo; Chen, Weiping

2016-11-01

In this study, we proposed a Regional Probabilistic Risk Assessment (RPRA) to estimate the health risks of exposing residents to heavy metals in different environmental media and land uses. The mean and ranges of heavy metal concentrations were measured in water, sediments, soil profiles and surface soils under four land uses along the Shunde Waterway, a drinking water supply area in China. Hazard quotients (HQs) were estimated for various exposure routes and heavy metal species. Riverbank vegetable plots and private vegetable plots had 95th percentiles of total HQs greater than 3 and 1, respectively, indicating high risks of cultivation on the flooded riverbank. Vegetable uptake and leaching to groundwater were the two transfer routes of soil metals causing high health risks. Exposure risks during outdoor recreation, farming and swimming along the Shunde Waterway are theoretically safe. Arsenic and cadmium were identified as the priority pollutants that contribute the most risk among the heavy metals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the exposure route, variations in exposure parameters, mobility of heavy metals in soil, and metal concentrations all influenced the risk estimates.

Association of high-risk sexual behaviour with diversity of the vaginal microbiota and abundance of Lactobacillus.

Science.gov (United States)

Wessels, Jocelyn M; Lajoie, Julie; Vitali, Danielle; Omollo, Kenneth; Kimani, Joshua; Oyugi, Julius; Cheruiyot, Juliana; Kimani, Makubo; Mungai, John N; Akolo, Maureen; Stearns, Jennifer C; Surette, Michael G; Fowke, Keith R; Kaushic, Charu

2017-01-01

To compare the vaginal microbiota of women engaged in high-risk sexual behaviour (sex work) with women who are not engaged in high-risk sexual behaviour. Diverse vaginal microbiota, low in Lactobacillus species, like those in bacterial vaginosis (BV), are associated with increased prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition. Although high-risk sexual behaviour increases risk for STIs, the vaginal microbiota of sex workers is understudied. A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted comparing vaginal microbiota of women who are not engaged in sex work (non-sex worker controls, NSW, N = 19) and women engaged in sex work (female sex workers, FSW, N = 48), using Illumina sequencing (16S rRNA, V3 region). Bacterial richness and diversity were significantly less in controls, than FSW. Controls were more likely to have Lactobacillus as the most abundant genus (58% vs. 17%; P = 0.002) and composition of their vaginal microbiota differed from FSW (PERMANOVA, P = 0.001). Six microbiota clusters were detected, including a high diversity cluster with three sub-clusters, and 55% of women with low Nugent Scores fell within this cluster. High diversity was observed by 16S sequencing in FSW, regardless of Nugent Scores, suggesting that Nugent Score may not be capable of capturing the diversity present in the FSW vaginal microbiota. High-risk sexual behaviour is associated with diversity of the vaginal microbiota and lack of Lactobacillus. These factors could contribute to increased risk of STIs and HIV in women engaged in high-risk sexual behaviour.

Association of high-risk sexual behaviour with diversity of the vaginal microbiota and abundance of Lactobacillus.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jocelyn M Wessels

Full Text Available To compare the vaginal microbiota of women engaged in high-risk sexual behaviour (sex work with women who are not engaged in high-risk sexual behaviour. Diverse vaginal microbiota, low in Lactobacillus species, like those in bacterial vaginosis (BV, are associated with increased prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV acquisition. Although high-risk sexual behaviour increases risk for STIs, the vaginal microbiota of sex workers is understudied.A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted comparing vaginal microbiota of women who are not engaged in sex work (non-sex worker controls, NSW, N = 19 and women engaged in sex work (female sex workers, FSW, N = 48, using Illumina sequencing (16S rRNA, V3 region.Bacterial richness and diversity were significantly less in controls, than FSW. Controls were more likely to have Lactobacillus as the most abundant genus (58% vs. 17%; P = 0.002 and composition of their vaginal microbiota differed from FSW (PERMANOVA, P = 0.001. Six microbiota clusters were detected, including a high diversity cluster with three sub-clusters, and 55% of women with low Nugent Scores fell within this cluster. High diversity was observed by 16S sequencing in FSW, regardless of Nugent Scores, suggesting that Nugent Score may not be capable of capturing the diversity present in the FSW vaginal microbiota.High-risk sexual behaviour is associated with diversity of the vaginal microbiota and lack of Lactobacillus. These factors could contribute to increased risk of STIs and HIV in women engaged in high-risk sexual behaviour.

Association of high-risk sexual behaviour with diversity of the vaginal microbiota and abundance of Lactobacillus

Science.gov (United States)

Wessels, Jocelyn M.; Lajoie, Julie; Vitali, Danielle; Omollo, Kenneth; Kimani, Joshua; Oyugi, Julius; Cheruiyot, Juliana; Kimani, Makubo; Mungai, John N.; Akolo, Maureen; Stearns, Jennifer C.; Surette, Michael G.; Fowke, Keith R.

2017-01-01

Objective To compare the vaginal microbiota of women engaged in high-risk sexual behaviour (sex work) with women who are not engaged in high-risk sexual behaviour. Diverse vaginal microbiota, low in Lactobacillus species, like those in bacterial vaginosis (BV), are associated with increased prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition. Although high-risk sexual behaviour increases risk for STIs, the vaginal microbiota of sex workers is understudied. Methods A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted comparing vaginal microbiota of women who are not engaged in sex work (non-sex worker controls, NSW, N = 19) and women engaged in sex work (female sex workers, FSW, N = 48), using Illumina sequencing (16S rRNA, V3 region). Results Bacterial richness and diversity were significantly less in controls, than FSW. Controls were more likely to have Lactobacillus as the most abundant genus (58% vs. 17%; P = 0.002) and composition of their vaginal microbiota differed from FSW (PERMANOVA, P = 0.001). Six microbiota clusters were detected, including a high diversity cluster with three sub-clusters, and 55% of women with low Nugent Scores fell within this cluster. High diversity was observed by 16S sequencing in FSW, regardless of Nugent Scores, suggesting that Nugent Score may not be capable of capturing the diversity present in the FSW vaginal microbiota. Conclusions High-risk sexual behaviour is associated with diversity of the vaginal microbiota and lack of Lactobacillus. These factors could contribute to increased risk of STIs and HIV in women engaged in high-risk sexual behaviour. PMID:29095928

X-ray absorption intensity at high-energy region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujikawa, Takashi; Kaneko, Katsumi

2012-01-01

We theoretically discuss X-ray absorption intensity in high-energy region far from the deepest core threshold to explain the morphology-dependent mass attenuation coefficient of some carbon systems, carbon nanotubes (CNTs), highly oriented pyrolytic graphite (HOPG) and fullerenes (C 60 ). The present theoretical approach is based on the many-body X-ray absorption theory including the intrinsic losses (shake-up losses). In the high-energy region the absorption coefficient has correction term dependent on the solid state effects given in terms of the polarization part of the screened Coulomb interaction W p . We also discuss the tail of the valence band X-ray absorption intensity. In the carbon systems C 2s contribution has some influence on the attenuation coefficient even in the high energy region at 20 keV.

Play-fairway analysis for geothermal resources and exploration risk in the Modoc Plateau region

Science.gov (United States)

Siler, Drew; Zhang, Yingqi; Spycher, Nicolas F.; Dobson, Patrick; McClain, James S.; Gasperikova, Erika; Zierenberg, Robert A.; Schiffman, Peter; Ferguson, Colin; Fowler, Andrew; Cantwell, Carolyn

2017-01-01

The region surrounding the Modoc Plateau, encompassing parts of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and northwestern Nevada, lies at an intersection between two tectonic provinces; the Basin and Range province and the Cascade volcanic arc. Both of these provinces have substantial geothermal resource base and resource potential. Geothermal systems with evidence of magmatic heat, associated with Cascade arc magmatism, typify the western side of the region. Systems on the eastern side of the region appear to be fault controlled with heat derived from high crustal heat flow, both of which are typical of the Basin and Range. As it has the potential to host Cascade arc-type geothermal resources, Basin and Range-type geothermal resources, and/or resources with characteristics of both provinces, and because there is relatively little current development, the Modoc Plateau region represents an intriguing potential for undiscovered geothermal resources. It remains unclear however, what specific set(s) of characteristics are diagnostic of Modoc-type geothermal systems and how or if those characteristics are distinct from Basin and Range-type or Cascade arc-type geothermal systems. In order to evaluate the potential for undiscovered geothermal resources in the Modoc area, we integrate a wide variety of existing data in order to evaluate geothermal resource potential and exploration risk utilizing ‘play-fairway’ analysis. We consider that the requisite parameters for hydrothermal circulation are: 1) heat that is sufficient to drive circulation, and 2) permeability that is sufficient to allow for fluid circulation in the subsurface. We synthesize data that indicate the extent and distribution of these parameters throughout the Modoc region. ‘Fuzzy logic’ is used to incorporate expert opinion into the utility of each dataset as an indicator of either heat or permeability, and thus geothermal favorability. The results identify several geothermal prospects, areas that

Logic-probable approach to the determination of the risk-sustainable strategy of the region and enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu. M. Sokolinskaya

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article describes a logical-probabilistic approach to the definition of crisis situations that threaten economic security. The onset of risk events of any kind entails two types of damage - direct economic and social damage, and indirect damage, which can be much more significant. The main strategic goal of ensuring economic security is the stable and most efficient functioning of the enterprise at present and ensuring its high potential for future development. The lack of a unified management mechanism due to systemic threats imposed on the economy as a whole led to an exacerbation of the situation primarily in the basic sectors (infrastructure, health, education, law enforcement. This, in turn, is the destructor of the basis for development and ensuring national security of the regions and the country as a whole, contributing to a decrease in the standard of living and quality of life of the population. Methods and methods of risk and safety management require the use of analysis covering all types of possible threats, such as engineering, economic, social factors, etc. And they must also take into account not only existing, but also remote consequences of the decisions made. The choice of a strategy for responding to a risk situation relies on the results of a comprehensive risk assessment, additional analysis of the technological and economic potential of the Voronezh region and industrial enterprise, the projected external environment, the current legal and regulatory framework (taxes, inflation, increase in the number of competitors, marketing and other studies. The organization of a risk management system based on their integrated assessment allows tracking and timely signaling of undesirable events in business activities.

[Targeting high-risk drugs to optimize clinical pharmacists' intervention].

Science.gov (United States)

Mouterde, Anne-Laure; Bourdelin, Magali; Maison, Ophélie; Coursier, Sandra; Bontemps, Hervé

2016-12-01

By the Order of 6 April 2011, the pharmacist must validate all the prescriptions containing "high-risk drugs" or those of "patients at risk". To optimize this clinical pharmacy activity, we identified high-risk drugs. A list of high-risk drugs has been established using literature, pharmacists' interventions (PI) performed in our hospital and a survey sent to hospital pharmacists. In a prospective study (analysis of 100 prescriptions for each high-risk drug selected), we have identified the most relevant to target. We obtained a statistically significant PI rate (P<0.05) for digoxin, oral anticoagulants direct, oral methotrexate and colchicine. This method of targeted pharmaceutical validation based on high-risk drugs is relevant to detect patients with high risk of medicine-related illness. Copyright © 2016 Société française de pharmacologie et de thérapeutique. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Forecasting high-priority infectious disease surveillance regions: a socioeconomic model.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Emily H; Scales, David A; Brewer, Timothy F; Madoff, Lawrence C; Pollack, Marjorie P; Hoen, Anne G; Choden, Tenzin; Brownstein, John S

2013-02-01

Few researchers have assessed the relationships between socioeconomic inequality and infectious disease outbreaks at the population level globally. We use a socioeconomic model to forecast national annual rates of infectious disease outbreaks. We constructed a multivariate mixed-effects Poisson model of the number of times a given country was the origin of an outbreak in a given year. The dataset included 389 outbreaks of international concern reported in the World Health Organization's Disease Outbreak News from 1996 to 2008. The initial full model included 9 socioeconomic variables related to education, poverty, population health, urbanization, health infrastructure, gender equality, communication, transportation, and democracy, and 1 composite index. Population, latitude, and elevation were included as potential confounders. The initial model was pared down to a final model by a backwards elimination procedure. The dependent and independent variables were lagged by 2 years to allow for forecasting future rates. Among the socioeconomic variables tested, the final model included child measles immunization rate and telephone line density. The Democratic Republic of Congo, China, and Brazil were predicted to be at the highest risk for outbreaks in 2010, and Colombia and Indonesia were predicted to have the highest percentage of increase in their risk compared to their average over 1996-2008. Understanding socioeconomic factors could help improve the understanding of outbreak risk. The inclusion of the measles immunization variable suggests that there is a fundamental basis in ensuring adequate public health capacity. Increased vigilance and expanding public health capacity should be prioritized in the projected high-risk regions.

Risk assessments of regional climate change over Europe: generation of probabilistic ensemble and uncertainty assessment for EURO-CODEX

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, J.; Kopp, R. E.

2017-12-01

Quantitative risk analysis of regional climate change is crucial for risk management and impact assessment of climate change. Two major challenges to assessing the risks of climate change are: CMIP5 model runs, which drive EURO-CODEX downscaling runs, do not cover the full range of uncertainty of future projections; Climate models may underestimate the probability of tail risks (i.e. extreme events). To overcome the difficulties, this study offers a viable avenue, where a set of probabilistic climate ensemble is generated using the Surrogate/Model Mixed Ensemble (SMME) method. The probabilistic ensembles for temperature and precipitation are used to assess the range of uncertainty covered by five bias-corrected simulations from the high-resolution (0.11º) EURO-CODEX database, which are selected by the PESETA (The Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis) III project. Results show that the distribution of SMME ensemble is notably wider than both distribution of raw ensemble of GCMs and the spread of the five EURO-CORDEX in RCP8.5. Tail risks are well presented by the SMME ensemble. Both SMME ensemble and EURO-CORDEX projections are aggregated to administrative level, and are integrated into impact functions of PESETA III to assess climate risks in Europe. To further evaluate the uncertainties introduced by the downscaling process, we compare the 5 runs from EURO-CORDEX with runs from the corresponding GCMs. Time series of regional mean, spatial patterns, and climate indices are examined for the future climate (2080-2099) deviating from the present climate (1981-2010). The downscaling processes do not appear to be trend-preserving, e.g. the increase in regional mean temperature from EURO-CORDEX is slower than that from the corresponding GCM. The spatial pattern comparison reveals that the differences between each pair of GCM and EURO-CORDEX are small in winter. In summer, the temperatures of EURO

Regional risk assessment of environmental contamination from oil pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pelmulder, S.D.; Eguchi, R.T.

1991-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for assessing the risk of environmental contamination from oil pipeline leaks due to earthquakes. Risk is measured both as volume of oil released and remediation cost. The methodology was developed for use on a regional scale and thus relies on a limited amount of input data. Monte Carlo techniques are used to simulate earthquake events, while a deterministic model is used to estimate the volume of oil released at a particular site. A library of cost models is used to estimate the contamination and resulting remediation cost based on the volume of oil released and the general site conditions. This methodology has been implemented in a computer program, OILOSS, and the results are presented as annual frequency of exceedence curves for volume of oil released and cost of remediation

Preliminary results of an oilspill risk analysis for the Bombay High Region

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Mascarenhas, A.A.M.Q.; Gouveia, A.D.; Sitaraman, R.

oil were analysed, covering estimates of the time between spill occurrence and contact with resources. The combined results yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with production within the developmental area. Preliminary results...

Risk of flooding: Activities, parameters and regional peculiarities, Case study: Varbitsa watershed basin, Bulgaria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lubenov Todor

2009-01-01

Full Text Available An overview of the activities overtaken during risk of flooding situations, in one of the more often flooding region - the watershed of Varbitsa river (Southeastern part of Bulgaria - has been performed. The main cognitive parameters for risk perception and risk definition, depending on regional, social and historical factors have been examined. The existing information and instructions for mass media communication in relation to the process of interaction in a disaster situation have been discussed. In connection to determination of the risky segments in the basin and plans for announcement, the prevention communication measures have been outlined. On the basis of the Bulgarian normative legislation, the activities concerning organization of communications in a risk-of-disaster situation and mutual aid between authorities, which are part of the Integrated Help System have been indicated. It has been accented on the necessity of a more effective realization of the action plans during natural disasters and especially flooding, in order to improve the partnership between authorities and participants in the communication process during risk-of-flooding situations.

High-Risk and Low-Risk Human Papillomavirus and the Absolute Risk of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia or Cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Louise T; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Munk, Christian

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine the absolute risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or cervical cancer (CIN 3 or worse) after detection of low-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) and after a negative high-risk HPV test. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, consecutive liquid......-based cervical cytology samples were collected from women screened for cervical cancer in Copenhagen, Denmark, during 2002-2005. Samples were tested with a clinical test for 13 high-risk and five low-risk HPV types. The cohort (N=35,539; aged 14-90 years) was monitored in a nationwide pathology register for up...... cytology. Detection of low-risk HPV does not predict CIN 3 or worse. Cervical cancer screening should not include testing for low-risk HPV types. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II....

Association between dietary pattern and risk of cardiovascular disease among adults in the Middle East and North Africa region: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Aljefree, Najlaa; Ahmed, Faruk

2015-01-01

This paper reviews the evidence related to the association of dietary pattern with coronary heart disease (CHD), strokes, and the associated risk factors among adults in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. A systematic review of published articles between January 1990 and March 2015 was conducted using Pro-Quest Public Health, MEDLINE, and Google Scholar. The term 'dietary pattern' refers to data derived from dietary pattern analyses and individual food component analyses. The search identified 15 studies. The available data in the MENA region showed that Western dietary pattern has been predominant among adults with fewer adherences to the traditional diet, such as the Mediterranean diet. The Western dietary pattern was found to be associated with an increased risk of dyslipidaemia, diabetes, metabolic syndrome (MetS), body mass index (BMI), and hypertension. The Mediterranean diet, labelled in two studies as 'the traditional Lebanese diet', was negatively associated with BMI, waist circumference (WC), and the risk of diabetes, while one study found no association between the Mediterranean diet and MetS. Two randomised controlled trials conducted in Iran demonstrated the effect of the dietary approach to stop hypertension (DASH) in reducing metabolic risk among patients with diabetes and MetS. Likewise, the consumption of dairy products was associated with decreased blood pressure and WC, while the intake of whole grains was associated with reduced WC. In addition, the high consumption of black tea was found to be associated with decreased serum lipids. The intake of fish, vegetable oils, and tea had a protective effect on CHD, whereas the intake of full-fat yoghurt and hydrogenated fats was associated with an increased risk of CHD. There appears to be a significant association of Western dietary pattern with the increased risk of CHD, strokes, and associated risk factors among adults in the MENA region. Conversely, increased adherence to Mediterranean

Association between high risk foot, retinopathy and HBA1c in Saudi diabetic population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mehmood, K.; Aziz, A.

2010-01-01

Background: One of the important complications of diabetes is diabetic-foot-ulcer, also reported in Saudi Arabia, like other countries. Similarly, the complications, like retinopathy and nephropathy are also occurring in diabetic patients of this region. Apart from the care and monitoring of these patients, it is important to find out association between these complications and their relation with common factors, like HbA1c levels. Such relation is not yet reported in literature. Objective: Therefore, this study was planned to find out association between neuropathy (leading to high risk foot) and retinopathy by the estimation of HbA1c levels in Saudi population. Methods: After exclusion of the cases of gestational diabetes and children with type-1 diabetes, 333 Patients having age 21 to 97 years were examined in the Diabetology Clinic of Diabetes Centre, Aseer Central Hospital, Abha. All patients were screened for neuropathy (High risk of the foot) and retinopathy (by Fundus Photography). HbA1c levels were determined, using standardised procedure. The obtained data was analysed statistically by SPSS-12 for Windows. Results: HbA1c levels of less than or equal to have been found to be associated with neuropathy, high risk foot, and as well as non- proliferative and proliferative retinopathy. Pearson chi square test has demonstrated association between progressive retinopathy and development of high risk foot. Conclusion: The observed data indicate poor glycemic or diabetes control on the basis of higher HbA1c levels and strong association between high risk foot and the development of progressive retinopathy. (author)

DNA Methylation Analysis of BRD1 Promoter Regions and the Schizophrenia rs138880 Risk Allele.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mads Dyrvig

Full Text Available The bromodomain containing 1 gene, BRD1 is essential for embryogenesis and CNS development. It encodes a protein that participates in histone modifying complexes and thereby regulates the expression of a large number of genes. Genetic variants in the BRD1 locus show association with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder and risk alleles in the promoter region correlate with reduced BRD1 expression. Insights into the transcriptional regulation of BRD1 and the pathogenic mechanisms associated with BRD1 risk variants, however, remain sparse. By studying transcripts in human HeLa and SH-SY5Y cells we provide evidence for differences in relative expression of BRD1 transcripts with three alternative 5' UTRs (exon 1C, 1B, and 1A. We further show that expression of these transcript variants covaries negatively with DNA methylation proportions in their upstream promoter regions suggesting that promoter usage might be regulated by DNA methylation. In line with findings that the risk allele of the rs138880 SNP in the BRD1 promoter region correlates with reduced BRD1 expression, we find that it is also associated with moderate regional BRD1 promoter hypermethylation in both adipose tissue and blood. Importantly, we demonstrate by inspecting available DNA methylation and expression data that these regions undergo changes in methylation during fetal brain development and that differences in their methylation proportions in fetal compared to postnatal frontal cortex correlate significantly with BRD1 expression. These findings suggest that BRD1 may be dysregulated in both the developing and mature brain of risk allele carriers. Finally, we demonstrate that commonly used mood stabilizers Lithium, Valproate, and Carbamazepine affect the expression of BRD1 in SH-SY5Y cells. Altogether this study indicates a link between genetic risk and epigenetic dysregulation of BRD1 which raises interesting perspectives for targeting the mechanisms pharmacologically.

Highlighting High Performance: Whitman Hanson Regional High School; Whitman, Massachusetts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2006-06-01

This brochure describes the key high-performance building features of the Whitman-Hanson Regional High School. The brochure was paid for by the Massachusetts Technology Collaborative as part of their Green Schools Initiative. High-performance features described are daylighting and energy-efficient lighting, indoor air quality, solar and wind energy, building envelope, heating and cooling systems, water conservation, and acoustics. Energy cost savings are also discussed.

Mapping regional soil water erosion risk in the Brittany-Loire basin for water management agency

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Degan, Francesca; Cerdan, Olivier; Salvador-Blanes, Sébastien; Gautier, Jean-Noël

2014-05-01

Soil water erosion is one of the main degradation processes that affect soils through the removal of soil particles from the surface. The impacts for environment and agricultural areas are diverse, such as water pollution, crop yield depression, organic matter loss and reduction in water storage capacity. There is therefore a strong need to produce maps at the regional scale to help environmental policy makers and soil and water management bodies to mitigate the effect of water and soil pollution. Our approach aims to model and map soil erosion risk at regional scale (155 000 km²) and high spatial resolution (50 m) in the Brittany - Loire basin. The factors responsible for soil erosion are different according to the spatial and time scales considered. The regional scale entails challenges about homogeneous data sets availability, spatial resolution of results, various erosion processes and agricultural practices. We chose to improve the MESALES model (Le Bissonnais et al., 2002) to map soil erosion risk, because it was developed specifically for water erosion in agricultural fields in temperate areas. The MESALES model consists in a decision tree which gives for each combination of factors the corresponding class of soil erosion risk. Four factors that determine soil erosion risk are considered: soils, land cover, climate and topography. The first main improvement of the model consists in using newly available datasets that are more accurate than the initial ones. The datasets used cover all the study area homogeneously. Soil dataset has a 1/1 000 000 scale and attributes such as texture, soil type, rock fragment and parent material are used. The climate dataset has a spatial resolution of 8 km and a temporal resolution of mm/day for 12 years. Elevation dataset has a spatial resolution of 50 m. Three different land cover datasets are used where the finest spatial resolution is 50 m over three years. Using these datasets, four erosion factors are characterized and

High-risk PCI: how to define it today?

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DE Marzo, Vincenzo; D'Amario, Domenico; Galli, Mattia; Vergallo, Rocco; Porto, Italo

2018-04-11

Before the percutaneous spread, the mortality rate of patients with coronary heart disease not suitable for cardiac surgery was markedly high. This limit has been progressively exceeded with the advent of minimally invasive approaches, which, although was initially intended exclusively for low risk patients, was then employed in complex patients often too compromised to undergo cardiac surgery. Given to the rising of high-risk population, due to an increase of patients with multiple chronic conditions linked to the best care offered, we are witnessing an expansion of the high-risk percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) population. Despite defining what high-risk is remains still unclear, all proposed definitions of high-risk PCI combine features related to three clinical areas: 1) patient risk factors and comorbidities (incorporating those which preclude surgical or percutaneous revascularization such as diabetes, COPD, CKD, lung disease, frailty, advanced age); 2) location of the disease and complexity of coronary anatomy (including multi-vessel disease, left main disease, CTO, bifurcations); 3) hemodynamic clinical status (ventricular dysfunction, concomitant valvular disease or unstable characteristics). Since cardiologists have ascertained the encouraging results in terms of efficacy and rewards compared to the low-risks patients, the important role of treating high-risk patients is becoming more and more relevant to the point that current guidelines have now changed the appropriateness of percutaneous interventions indications. Considering the complexity in managing higher-risk patients with coronary artery disease, the next step to ensure the best care for this type of patients is to create a team-based model of cooperation in order to properly establish the right treatment for the right patient.

Ecological risk caused by land use change in the coastal zone: a case study in the Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Ecological Economic Zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di, X H; Wang, Y D; Hou, X Y

2014-01-01

China's coastal zone plays an important role in ecological services production and social-economic development; however, extensive and intensive land resource utilization and land use change have lead to high ecological risk in this area during last decade. Regional ecological risk assessment can provide fundamental knowledge and scientific basis for better understanding of the relationship between regional landscape ecosystem and human activities or climate changes, facilitating the optimization strategy of land use structure and improving the ecological risk prevention capability. In this paper, the Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Ecological Economic Zone is selected as the study site, which is undergoing a new round of coastal zone exploitation and has endured substantial land use change in the past decade. Land use maps of 2000, 2005 and 2010 were generated based on Landsat images by visual interpretation method, and the ecological risk index was then calculated. The index was 0.3314, 0.3461 and 0.3176 in 2000, 2005 and 2010 respectively, which showed a positive transition of regional ecological risk in 2005

High Birth Weight Increases the Risk for Bone Tumor: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

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Songfeng Chen

2015-09-01

Full Text Available There have been several epidemiologic studies on the relationship between high birth weight and the risk for bone tumor in the past decades. However, due to the rarity of bone tumors, the sample size of individual studies was generally too small for reliable conclusions. Therefore, we have performed a meta-analysis to pool all published data on electronic databases with the purpose to clarify the potential relationship. According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 18 independent studies with more than 2796 cases were included. As a result, high birth weight was found to increase the risk for bone tumor with an Odds Ratio (OR of 1.13, with the 95% confidence interval (95% CI ranging from 1.01 to 1.27. The OR of bone tumor for an increase of 500 gram of birth weight was 1.01 (95% CI 1.00–1.02; p = 0.048 for linear trend. Interestingly, individuals with high birth weight had a greater risk for osteosarcoma (OR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.06–1.40, p = 0.006 than those with normal birth weight. In addition, in the subgroup analysis by geographical region, elevated risk was detected among Europeans (OR = 1.14, 95% CI 1.00–1.29, p = 0.049. The present meta-analysis supported a positive association between high birth weight and bone tumor risk.

Exome sequencing generates high quality data in non-target regions

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Guo Yan

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Exome sequencing using next-generation sequencing technologies is a cost efficient approach to selectively sequencing coding regions of human genome for detection of disease variants. A significant amount of DNA fragments from the capture process fall outside target regions, and sequence data for positions outside target regions have been mostly ignored after alignment. Result We performed whole exome sequencing on 22 subjects using Agilent SureSelect capture reagent and 6 subjects using Illumina TrueSeq capture reagent. We also downloaded sequencing data for 6 subjects from the 1000 Genomes Project Pilot 3 study. Using these data, we examined the quality of SNPs detected outside target regions by computing consistency rate with genotypes obtained from SNP chips or the Hapmap database, transition-transversion (Ti/Tv ratio, and percentage of SNPs inside dbSNP. For all three platforms, we obtained high-quality SNPs outside target regions, and some far from target regions. In our Agilent SureSelect data, we obtained 84,049 high-quality SNPs outside target regions compared to 65,231 SNPs inside target regions (a 129% increase. For our Illumina TrueSeq data, we obtained 222,171 high-quality SNPs outside target regions compared to 95,818 SNPs inside target regions (a 232% increase. For the data from the 1000 Genomes Project, we obtained 7,139 high-quality SNPs outside target regions compared to 1,548 SNPs inside target regions (a 461% increase. Conclusions These results demonstrate that a significant amount of high quality genotypes outside target regions can be obtained from exome sequencing data. These data should not be ignored in genetic epidemiology studies.

Improving Magnet Designs With High and Low Field Regions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjørk, Rasmus; Bahl, Christian Robert Haffenden; Smith, Anders

2011-01-01

A general scheme for increasing the difference in magnetic flux density between a high and a low magnetic field region by removing unnecessary magnet material is presented. This is important in, e.g., magnetic refrigeration where magnet arrays have to deliver high field regions in close proximity...... to low field regions. Also, a general way to replace magnet material with a high permeability soft magnetic material where appropriate is discussed. As an example, these schemes are applied to a two dimensional concentric Halbach cylinder design resulting in a reduction of the amount of magnet material...

High-risk bladder cancer: improving outcomes with perioperative chemotherapy

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Daniel Y.C. Heng

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Despite treatment with radical cystectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection, muscle invasive bladder cancer has a relapse rate of 50%. Patients can develop regionally advanced or metastatic disease that ultimately leads to death. The addition of neoadjuvant or adjuvant chemotherapy to reduce the risk of relapse and death has been extensively studied over the past two decades. Two contemporary trials coupled with a recent meta-analysis evaluating neoadjuvant chemotherapy demonstrated a modest but real improvement in overall survival. This has made neoadjuvant chemotherapy a standard of care. Clinical trials evaluating adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with high-risk disease have been plagued with statistical flaws and have, therefore, been unable to define the survival impact of this approach. It is hoped that ongoing adjuvant trials that are powered to detect small but meaningful clinical differences will clarify the benefit of chemotherapy after cystectomy. Since there are theoretical advantages and disadvantages to each of these approaches, both are widely used in North America. The evidence behind each approach and potential future developments in this field will be described.

Enrichment of risk SNPs in regulatory regions implicate diverse tissues in Parkinson’s disease etiology

Science.gov (United States)

Coetzee, Simon G.; Pierce, Steven; Brundin, Patrik; Brundin, Lena; Hazelett, Dennis J.; Coetzee, Gerhard A.

2016-01-01

Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of Parkinson’s disease (PD) revealed at least 26 risk loci, with associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located in non-coding DNA having unknown functions in risk. In order to explore in which cell types these SNPs (and their correlated surrogates at r2 ≥ 0.8) could alter cellular function, we assessed their location overlap with histone modification regions that indicate transcription regulation in 77 diverse cell types. We found statistically significant enrichment of risk SNPs at 12 loci in active enhancers or promoters. We investigated 4 risk loci in depth that were most significantly enriched (−logeP > 14) and contained 8 putative enhancers in the different cell types. These enriched loci, along with eQTL associations, were unexpectedly present in non-neuronal cell types. These included lymphocytes, mesendoderm, liver- and fat-cells, indicating that cell types outside the brain are involved in the genetic predisposition to PD. Annotating regulatory risk regions within specific cell types may unravel new putative risk mechanisms and molecular pathways that contribute to PD development. PMID:27461410

Sheep gastrointestinal helminthiasis in the Sertão region of Paraíba State, Northeastern Brazil: prevalence and risk factors.

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Vieira, Vanessa Diniz; Vilela, Vinícius Longo Ribeiro; Feitosa, Thais Ferreira; Athayde, Ana Célia Rodrigues; Azevedo, Sérgio Santos; Souto, Diego Vagner de Oliveira; Silveira, Gian Libânio da; Melo, Lídio Ricardo Bezerra de

2014-01-01

In this study, we aimed to establish the prevalence and risk factors relating to gastrointestinal helminthiasis, and to characterize the sanitary management practiced among sheep herds in the Sertão region of the state of Paraíba, northeastern Brazil, based on factors that condition the ways of controlling these parasites in these herds. The research was carried out between April and July 2012. We visited 54 farms, where fecal and blood samples were individually collected from 465 animals. On each farm, a questionnaire was applied to gather information on variables relating to potential risk factors. The prevalence of sheep gastrointestinal helminthiasis in the region was 75.9%. At least one animal tested positive for this helminthiasis on 53 (98.1%) of the 54 farms evaluated. The eggs per gram of feces (EPG) analysis showed the following infection burdens: 51.8% with mild infection, 27.1% moderate infection, 9.9% heavy infection and 11.2% fatal infection. Among the sheep farms visited, anthelmintics were used on 81.5% (p helminthiasis, because the animals are more prone to reinfection. The Sertão region of Paraíba presents high prevalence of gastrointestinal helminthiasis among sheep, and the farm area is the most relevant risk factor for the development of these parasites.

Risk Factors for Post-treatment Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Pelle B; Mikkelsen, Kim Lyngby; Lauritzen, Jes B

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Complex regional pain syndrome is a challenging condition that includes a broad spectrum of sensory, autonomic, and motor features predominantly in extremities recovering from a trauma. Few large-scale studies have addressed occurrence of and factors associated with complex regional......, gender, initial diagnosis, treatment, and amount of compensation were extracted. Multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify variables associated with approval of the claim. For carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) patients, we registered whether symptoms were bilateral or unilateral...... normal neurophysiology. CONCLUSIONS: Female gender, surgical treatment, and treatment to the upper limb were risk factors. Elective surgery accounted for a large number of post-treatment CRPS patients. In CTS patients developing CRPS, normal neurophysiological examination findings were common...

Prevalence and risk factors associated with nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean region

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Musaiger, Abdulrahman O; Al-Hazzaa, Hazzaa M

2012-01-01

This paper reviews the current situation concerning nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases (N-NCDs) and the risk factors associated with these diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR). A systematic literature review of studies and reports published between January 1, 1990 and September 15, 2011 was conducted using the PubMed and Google Scholar databases. Cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, obesity, cancer, and osteoporosis have become the main causes of morbidity and mortality, especially with progressive aging of the population. The estimated mortality rate due to cardiovascular disease and diabetes ranged from 179.8 to 765.2 per 100,000 population, with the highest rates in poor countries. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was very high, ranging from 19% to 45%. The prevalence of overweight and obesity (body mass index ≥25 kg/m2) has reached an alarming level in most countries of the region, ranging from 25% to 82%, with a higher prevalence among women. The estimated mortality rate for cancer ranged from 61.9 to 151 per 100,000 population. Osteoporosis has become a critical problem, particularly among women. Several risk factors may be contributing to the high prevalence of N-NCDs in EMR, including nutrition transition, low intake of fruit and vegetables, demographic transition, urbanization, physical inactivity, hypertension, tobacco smoking, stunting of growth of preschool children, and lack of nutrition and health awareness. Intervention programs to prevent and control N-NCDs are urgently needed, with special focus on promotion of healthy eating and physical activity. PMID:22399864

Renal transplantation in high cardiovascular risk patients.

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Bittar, Julio; Arenas, Paula; Chiurchiu, Carlos; de la Fuente, Jorge; de Arteaga, Javier; Douthat, Walter; Massari, Pablo U

2009-10-01

Current transplant success allows recipients with previous contraindications to transplant to have access to this procedure with more frequency and safety. The concept of high-risk patient has changed since the first stages of transplantation. In the first studies, the high-risk concept was based on probability of early graft failure or on a patient's clinical condition to cope with high perioperatory morbimortality. Later on, this concept implied immunological factors that were crucial to ensure transplant success because hypersensitized or polytransfused patients experienced a higher risk of acute rejection and subsequent graft loss. Afterward, the presence of various comorbidities would redefine the high-risk concept for renal transplant mainly considering recipient's clinical aspects. Currently, the change in epidemiological characteristics of patients starting dialysis causes that we now deal with a greater increase of elderly patients, diabetic patients, and patients with history of cardiovascular disease. Today, high-risk patients are those with clinical features that predict an increase in the risk of perioperative morbimortality or death with functioning graft. In this review, we will attempted to analyze currents results of renal transplant outcomes in terms of patients and graft survival in elderly patients, diabetic patients, and patients with previous cardiovascular disease from the most recent experiences in the literature and from experiences in our center. In any of the groups previously analyzed, survival offered by renal transplant is significantly higher compared to dialysis. Besides, these patients are the recipient group that benefit the most with the transplant because their mortality while remaining on dialysis is extremely high. Hence, renal transplantation should be offered more frequently to older patients, diabetic patients, and patients with pretransplant cardiac and peripheral vascular disease. A positive attitude toward renal

Prevalence of and risk factors for high-risk human papillomavirus infection: a population-based study from Hetian, Xinjiang, China

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Mayinuer Niyazi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Human papillomavirus (HPV infection contributes to most cases of cervical cancer, and HPV genotypes exhibit different distributions according to geographic region. This study evaluates the prevalence of HPV infection in Hetian Prefecture, Xinjiang, and establishes risk factors associated with high-risk HPV (HR-HPV genotypes in this region. In this cross-sectional, population-based study, 883 healthy women 15-54 years of age were enrolled. All participants completed a questionnaire regarding sociocultural and sexual activity characteristics. Visual inspections with acetic acid, colposcopies and biopsies were performed using the Preventive Oncology International microbiopsy protocol for pathological diagnosis. Cervical epithelial tissue specimens were collected and tested for HPV using linear array assays. According to the results of HR-HPV infection status, individuals infected with HR-HPV were classified into one group, and the remaining individuals were classified into the control group. The risk factors for HR-HPF infection were analyzed. The participants included 66 women (7.47% with HR-HPV, 10 women (1.13% with low-risk HPV, and 14 women (1.59% with HPV of unknown risk. The five most prevalent types of HR-HPV were HPV-16 (0.31%, HPV-51 (0.08%, HPV-31 (0.07%, HPV-58 (0.07%, and HPV-39 (0.06%. Vulvovaginal ulcers and vulvovaginal inflammation were found in 190 participants (21.52% and 256 participants (28.99%, respectively. The HR-HPV and control groups significantly differed with respect to age at first marriage, number of marriages, and the presence of vulvovaginal ulcers and vulvovaginal inflammation (p<0.05. Based on this study, an immunization strategy targeting HPV-16 should be prioritized in Hetian Prefecture. These findings contribute to the understanding of HPV infection.

Sporadic-E and spread-F in high latitude region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tao, Kazuhiko

1974-01-01

The heretofore made morphological studies of sporadic-E and spread-F as the typical irregularities of electron density are reviewed. These phenomena have close correlation with other geophysical phenomena which occur in the atmosphere of superhigh altitude in high latitude region. Many of these phenomena occur from same causes. Although the quantitative data are insufficient, the sporadic-E and spread-F in high latitude region are supposed to be caused by the precipitating charged particles falling from magnetosphere. A system, which can observe such phenomena simultaneously using the measuring instruments carried by satellites in the atmosphere of high altitude over high latitude region, is desirable to solve such problems. In detail, the morphological study on sporadic-E obtained from the observation of vertically projected ionosphere and the morphological study on sporadic-E from the observation of forward scattering and slanting entrance are reviewed. The correlation of the occurrence frequency of sporadic-E with solar activity, geomagnetic activity and other phenomena was studied. The morphological study on spread-F occurrence is reviewed. The observation of the spread-F in high latitude region by the application of top side sounding is reviewed. The correlation of the sporadic-E and spread-F in high latitude region with other geophysical phenomena is discussed. Finally, the discrete phenomenon and the diffuse phenomenon are discussed too. (Iwakiri, K.)

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

Science.gov (United States)

2016-10-08

�6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI

Evaluation of Environmental Risk Due to Metro System Construction in Jinan, China

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Guo-Fu Wang

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Jinan is a famous spring city in China. Construction of underground metro system may block groundwater seepage, inducing the depletion risk of springs. This paper presents an assessment of the risk due to metro line construction to groundwater in Jinan City using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP and Geographic International System (GIS. Based on the characteristics of hydrogeology and engineering geology, the assessment model is established from the perspectives of surface index and underground index. The assessment results show that the high and very high risk levels of surface index exceed 98% in the north region; and high and very high risk levels of underground index exceed 56% in urban center and southern region. The assessment result also shows that about 14% of the urban area belongs to very high risk level; regions of high risk are 20% in urban area, 9% in Changqing County and 43% in Pingyin County. In the high risk region, metro lines R1 to R3, which are under construction, and metro lines L1 to L5, which are planned, have very high and high risk. Therefore, risk control measures are proposed to protect the groundwater seepage path to spring.

Evaluation of Environmental Risk Due to Metro System Construction in Jinan, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Guo-Fu; Lyu, Hai-Min; Shen, Jack Shuilong; Lu, Lin-Hai; Li, Gang; Arulrajah, Arul

2017-09-25

Jinan is a famous spring city in China. Construction of underground metro system may block groundwater seepage, inducing the depletion risk of springs. This paper presents an assessment of the risk due to metro line construction to groundwater in Jinan City using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic International System (GIS). Based on the characteristics of hydrogeology and engineering geology, the assessment model is established from the perspectives of surface index and underground index. The assessment results show that the high and very high risk levels of surface index exceed 98% in the north region; and high and very high risk levels of underground index exceed 56% in urban center and southern region. The assessment result also shows that about 14% of the urban area belongs to very high risk level; regions of high risk are 20% in urban area, 9% in Changqing County and 43% in Pingyin County. In the high risk region, metro lines R1 to R3, which are under construction, and metro lines L1 to L5, which are planned, have very high and high risk. Therefore, risk control measures are proposed to protect the groundwater seepage path to spring.

Specialized surveillance for individuals at high risk for melanoma: a cost analysis of a high-risk clinic.

Science.gov (United States)

Watts, Caroline G; Cust, Anne E; Menzies, Scott W; Coates, Elliot; Mann, Graham J; Morton, Rachael L

2015-02-01

Regular surveillance of individuals at high risk for cutaneous melanoma improves early detection and reduces unnecessary excisions; however, a cost analysis of this specialized service has not been undertaken. To determine the mean cost per patient of surveillance in a high-risk clinic from the health service and societal perspectives. We used a bottom-up microcosting method to measure resource use in a consecutive sample of 102 patients treated in a high-risk hospital-based clinic in Australia during a 12-month period. Surveillance and treatment of melanoma. All surveillance and treatment procedures were identified through direct observation, review of medical records, and interviews with staff and were valued using scheduled fees from the Australian government. Societal costs included transportation and loss of productivity. The mean number of clinic visits per year was 2.7 (95% CI, 2.5-2.8) for surveillance and 3.8 (95% CI, 3.4-4.1) for patients requiring surgical excisions. The mean annual cost per patient to the health system was A $882 (95% CI, A $783-$982) (US $599 [95% CI, US $532-$665]); the cost discounted across 20 years was A $11,546 (95% CI, A $10,263-$12,829) (US $7839 [95% CI, US $6969-$8710]). The mean annual societal cost per patient (excluding health system costs) was A $972 (95% CI, A $899-$1045) (US $660 [95% CI, US $611-$710]); the cost discounted across 20 years was A $12,721 (95% CI, A $12,554-$14,463) (US $8637 [95% CI, US $8523-$9820]). Diagnosis of melanoma or nonmelanoma skin cancer and frequent excisions for benign lesions in a relatively small number of patients was responsible for positively skewed health system costs. Microcosting techniques provide an accurate cost estimate for the provision of a specialized service. The high societal cost reflects the time that patients are willing to invest to attend the high-risk clinic. This alternative model of care for a high-risk population has relevance for decision making about health policy.

Cortico-Striatal GABAergic and Glutamatergic Dysregulations in Subjects at Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis Investigated with Proton Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Reyes-Madrigal, Francisco; Mao, Xiangling; León-Ortiz, Pablo; Rodríguez-Mayoral, Oscar; Solís-Vivanco, Rodolfo; Favila, Rafael; Graff-Guerrero, Ariel; Shungu, Dikoma C.

2016-01-01

Background: Dysregulations of the major inhibitory and excitatory amino neurotransmitter systems of γ-aminobutyric acid and glutamate, respectively, have been described in patients with schizophrenia. However, it is unclear whether these abnormalities are present in subjects at ultra-high risk for psychosis. Methods: Twenty-three antipsychotic naïve subjects at ultra-high risk and 24 healthy control subjects, matched for age, sex, handedness, cigarette smoking, and parental education, underwent proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy scans in the dorsal caudate bilaterally and the medial prefrontal cortex at 3T. Levels of γ-aminobutyric acid and of the combined resonance of glutamate and glutamine (Glx) were obtained using the standard J-editing technique and expressed as peak area ratios relative to the synchronously acquired unsuppressed voxel water signal. Results: Higher levels of γ-aminobutyric acid (P<.001) and Glx (P=.007) were found in the dorsal caudate of the subjects at ultra-high risk than in the healthy controls. In the medial prefrontal cortex, likewise, both γ-aminobutyric acid (P=.03) and Glx (P=.006) levels were higher in the ultra-high risk group than in the healthy controls. No group differences were found for any of the other metabolites (N-acetylaspartate, total choline, or total creatine) in the 2 regions of interest. Conclusions: This study presents the first evidence of abnormal elevations, in subjects at ultra-high risk, of γ-aminobutyric acid and Glx in 2 brain regions that have been implicated in the pathophysiology of psychosis, warranting longitudinal studies to assess whether these neurotransmitter abnormalities can serve as noninvasive biomarkers of conversion risk to psychosis as well as of illness progression and treatment response. PMID:26364273

Risk-based prioritization of ground water threatening point sources at catchment and regional scales

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Overheu, Niels Døssing; Tuxen, Nina; Flyvbjerg, John

2014-01-01

framework has been developed to enable a systematic and transparent risk assessment and prioritization of contaminant point sources, considering the local, catchment, or regional scales (Danish EPA, 2011, 2012). The framework has been tested in several catchments in Denmark with different challenges...... and needs, and two of these are presented. Based on the lessons learned, the Danish EPA has prepared a handbook to guide the user through the steps in a risk-based prioritization (Danish EPA, 2012). It provides guidance on prioritization both in an administratively defined area such as a Danish Region...... of the results are presented using the case studies as examples. The methodology was developed by a broad industry group including the Danish EPA, the Danish Regions, the Danish Nature Agency, the Technical University of Denmark, and consultants — and the framework has been widely accepted by the professional...

Hygienic assessment of ambient air quality and health risks to population of Krasnoyarsk region

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D.V. Goryaev

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This study fulfills the hygienic assessment of ambient air quality in the populated areas of the Krasnoyarsk Region. It is shown that the total number of emission sources in the region is more than 23 600 units, what is higher than in previous years. Around 90.7 % out of them correspond to the set standards of permissible emissions. Air monitoring was carried by the establishments of Roshydromet, Rospotrebnadzor and by other organizations at 94 observation posts in eight urban districts and 2 municipal districts of the region. The status of the ambient air in a sequence of the populated areas of Krasnoyarsk region, namely in the cities Achinsk, Kansk, Krasnoyarsk, Lesosibirsk, Minusinsk, Norilsk, is characterized by the presence of certain pollutants, the level of which exceeds the hygienic standards. Prioritized pollutants are benzo(apyrene, suspended solids, nitrogen, and sulfur dioxide, formaldehyde and others. In the settlements the economic entities violate the legal requirements in the field of sanitary and epidemiological welfare of the population. The probability of the population’s health deterioration grows along with the growth of risk factors. The risks of respiratory diseases, immune system, blood and blood-forming organs and the additional mortality are assessed as unacceptable. Ensuring air quality of the urban residential areas and municipal districts of the Krasnoyarsk Territory requires the introducing the complex measures to improve it. The established levels of human health risk associated with exposure to polluted air are an additional criterion for selection of the priority objects when planning the implementation of risk-based model for supervisory activities in the field of sanitary and epidemiological welfare of the population.

Dosimetric comparison of axilla and groin radiotherapy techniques for high-risk and locally advanced skin cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mattes, Malcolm D.; Zhou, Ying; Berry, Sean L.; Barker, Christopher A.

2016-01-01

Radiation therapy targeting axilla and groin lymph nodes improves regional disease control in locally advanced and high-risk skin cancers. However, trials generally used conventional two-dimensional radiotherapy (2D-RT), contributing towards relatively high rates of side effects from treatment. The goal of this study is to determine if three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT), intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), or volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) may improve radiation delivery to the target while avoiding organs at risk in the clinical context of skin cancer regional nodal irradiation. Twenty patients with locally advanced/high-risk skin cancers underwent computed tomography simulation. The relevant axilla or groin planning target volumes and organs at risk were delineated using standard definitions. Paired t-tests were used to compare the mean values of several dose-volumetric parameters for each of the 4 techniques. In the axilla, the largest improvement for 3D-CRT compared to 2D-RT was for homogeneity index (13.9 vs. 54.3), at the expense of higher lung V 20 (28.0% vs. 12.6%). In the groin, the largest improvements for 3D-CRT compared to 2D-RT were for anorectum D max (13.6 vs. 38.9 Gy), bowel D 200cc (7.3 vs. 23.1 Gy), femur D 50 (34.6 vs. 57.2 Gy), and genitalia D max (37.6 vs. 51.1 Gy). IMRT had further improvements compared to 3D-CRT for humerus D mean (16.9 vs. 22.4 Gy), brachial plexus D 5 (57.4 vs. 61.3 Gy), bladder D 5 (26.8 vs. 36.5 Gy), and femur D 50 (18.7 vs. 34.6 Gy). Fewer differences were observed between IMRT and VMAT. Compared to 2D-RT and 3D-CRT, IMRT and VMAT had dosimetric advantages in the treatment of nodal regions of skin cancer patients

Dosimetric comparison of axilla and groin radiotherapy techniques for high-risk and locally advanced skin cancer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mattes, Malcolm D.; Zhou, Ying; Berry, Sean L.; Barker, Christopher A. [Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York (United States)

2016-06-15

Radiation therapy targeting axilla and groin lymph nodes improves regional disease control in locally advanced and high-risk skin cancers. However, trials generally used conventional two-dimensional radiotherapy (2D-RT), contributing towards relatively high rates of side effects from treatment. The goal of this study is to determine if three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT), intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), or volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) may improve radiation delivery to the target while avoiding organs at risk in the clinical context of skin cancer regional nodal irradiation. Twenty patients with locally advanced/high-risk skin cancers underwent computed tomography simulation. The relevant axilla or groin planning target volumes and organs at risk were delineated using standard definitions. Paired t-tests were used to compare the mean values of several dose-volumetric parameters for each of the 4 techniques. In the axilla, the largest improvement for 3D-CRT compared to 2D-RT was for homogeneity index (13.9 vs. 54.3), at the expense of higher lung V{sub 20} (28.0% vs. 12.6%). In the groin, the largest improvements for 3D-CRT compared to 2D-RT were for anorectum D{sub max} (13.6 vs. 38.9 Gy), bowel D{sub 200cc} (7.3 vs. 23.1 Gy), femur D{sub 50} (34.6 vs. 57.2 Gy), and genitalia D{sub max} (37.6 vs. 51.1 Gy). IMRT had further improvements compared to 3D-CRT for humerus D{sub mean} (16.9 vs. 22.4 Gy), brachial plexus D{sub 5} (57.4 vs. 61.3 Gy), bladder D{sub 5} (26.8 vs. 36.5 Gy), and femur D{sub 50} (18.7 vs. 34.6 Gy). Fewer differences were observed between IMRT and VMAT. Compared to 2D-RT and 3D-CRT, IMRT and VMAT had dosimetric advantages in the treatment of nodal regions of skin cancer patients.

Physical activity barriers and motivators among high-risk employees.

Science.gov (United States)

Paguntalan, John C; Gregoski, Mathew

2016-11-22

Worksite wellness programs offer an ideal setting to target high-risk sedentary workers to improve health status. Lack of physical activity is associated with increased risk for coronary heart disease and mortality. Despite the risks, the number of sedentary workers is increasing. This study examined the perceived barriers and motivators for physical activity among employees at high-risk for coronary heart disease. A purposive sample of 24 high-risk workers participating in a wellness program in rural South Carolina were enrolled in the study. Qualitative data was obtained through semi-structured face-to-face interviews. Grounded theory was used to analyze qualitative data, and identify overarching themes. Physical limitations due to pain and weakness, lack of motivation, and lack of time emerged as the main barriers to physical activity. Family relationships were reported as the strongest motivator along with social support and potential health benefits. Findings highlight the unique experience of high-risk workers with physical activity. The findingsunderscore the need to design and implement effective interventions specifically designed to meet the needs of high-risk employees.

Turbine component casting core with high resolution region

Science.gov (United States)

Kamel, Ahmed; Merrill, Gary B.

2014-08-26

A hollow turbine engine component with complex internal features can include a first region and a second, high resolution region. The first region can be defined by a first ceramic core piece formed by any conventional process, such as by injection molding or transfer molding. The second region can be defined by a second ceramic core piece formed separately by a method effective to produce high resolution features, such as tomo lithographic molding. The first core piece and the second core piece can be joined by interlocking engagement that once subjected to an intermediate thermal heat treatment process thermally deform to form a three dimensional interlocking joint between the first and second core pieces by allowing thermal creep to irreversibly interlock the first and second core pieces together such that the joint becomes physically locked together providing joint stability through thermal processing.

Targeted outreach hepatitis B vaccination program in high-risk adults : The fundamental challenge of the last mile

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mangen, M. J.J.; Stibbe, H; Urbanus, A.; Siedenburg, E C; Waldhober, Q; de Wit, G. A.; Steenbergen, Eric J

2017-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the on-going decentralised targeted hepatitis B vaccination program for behavioural high-risk groups operated by regional public health services in the Netherlands since 1-November-2002. Target groups for free vaccination are

Laser prostatectomy in high-risk patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tayib, Abdulmalik M.

2008-01-01

Objective was to evaluate the short-term tolerability and outcome of high power green light potassium titanyl phosphate laser prostatectomy in high-risk patients with symptomatic benign prostatic hyperplasia. Eleven high risk operative patients were included in this study at the International Medical Center, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, between January and September 2007. Patients enrolled in this study underwent preoperative and postoperative, cardiac and anesthesia evaluation. Clinical presentations, ultrasound of urinary tract and preoperative laboratory investigation were recorded. All patients underwent high power green light laser prostatectomy using the green light photo vaporization system with setting of 120 watts. The intraoperative and postoperative complications and follow-up were recorded. The patient's age varied between 65-82 years with a mean age of 75.3+-8.6 years old. Seven patients presented with refractory acute urinary retention and 4 patients presented with severe lower urinary tract symptoms. The average prostate volume was 61.22 cc. All patients had uneventful intra- and postoperative course, without the intensive care. The average blood loss was insignificant and only one of the patients required blood transfusion. Foley catheters were removed one day after the procedure. All patients voided satisfactorily after removal of catheter and 8 patients complained of urgency. High power green light laser prostatectomy is a safe and effective method of treating symptomatic benign prostatic hyperplasia in patients with high operative risk. (author)

PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

2013-04-01

The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

[Study on distribution characteristics and potential ecological risk of soil heavy metals in the Yellow River beach region in Kaifeng City].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Peng-yan; Qin, Ming-zhou; Chen, Long; Hu, Chang-hui; Zhao, Ya-ping; Dong, Wei-jun

2013-09-01

The distributions, soil environment status and potential ecological risk of heavy metals were studied in beach soil of returning the cropland into Yellow River beach region in Kaifeng by the Nemerows and Håkansons methods. The results showed that (1) as Among the average contents of the five heavy metals Pb, Cr, Hg, As and Cd, the highest was the average content of Cr, and the lowest was the average content of Pb and Hg. In addition to Hg, the coefficients of variation of other heavy metals were relatively small, indicating that the content of heavy metals was quite different at different sites, and to some extent, relecting that Hg, As and Pb were the major elements polluting the soil, among which, Pb pollution was the pollution with universality. There was little difference in the contents of Cr and Cd from village to village the coefficient of variation was small, and the contents were below the national standard level. (2) There was significant difference in the spatial distribution of soil heavy metal elements in the upper, the middle and lower sections of the study area. The upper section was clean, the middle section was slightly polluted, and the lower section was enriched with pollutants. (3) The distribution of heavy metals in the beach region inside and outside the levees of Yellow River was closely related to the distribution of the residential regions. In the upper section of the beach region (southwest), the population was large and the contents of heavy metals were high. The contents of heavy metals were lower in the near river zone than outside the levees of Yellow River. And the heavy metal contents in the middle and lower section were higher than those outside the levees of Yellow River, while the lower section (northwest) showed a tendency of pollution enrichment. (4) In the view of the average individual potential ecological risk index of heavy metals (E(r)i), the potential ecological risk of Hg reached intense levels, and the potential

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Alexander, Lily; Anderson, H Ross; Bachman, Victoria F; Biryukov, Stan; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Casey, Daniel; Coates, Matthew M; Cohen, Aaron; Delwiche, Kristen; Estep, Kara; Frostad, Joseph J; Astha, K C; Kyu, Hmwe H; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Ng, Marie; Slepak, Erica Leigh; Thomas, Bernadette A; Wagner, Joseph; Aasvang, Gunn Marit; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw F; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Aburto, Tania C; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsène K; Adsuar, José C; Afshin, Ashkan; Agardh, Emilie E; Al Khabouri, Mazin J; Al Lami, Faris H; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I; Alegretti, Miguel A; Aleman, Alicia V; Alemu, Zewdie A; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Ali, Mohammed K; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Peter J; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amankwaa, Adansi A; Amare, Azmeraw T; Ameh, Emmanuel A; Ameli, Omid; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Anderson, Benjamin O; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Argeseanu Cunningham, Solveig; Arnlöv, Johan; Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic; Artaman, Al; Asghar, Rana J; Assadi, Reza; Atkins, Lydia S; Atkinson, Charles; Avila, Marco A; Awuah, Baffour; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C; Bakfalouni, Talal; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balalla, Shivanthi; Balu, Ravi Kumar; Banerjee, Amitava; Barber, Ryan M; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Basto-Abreu, Ana C; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Basulaiman, Mohammed O; Batis Ruvalcaba, Carolina; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L; Benjet, Corina; Bennett, Derrick A; Benzian, Habib; Bernabé, Eduardo; Beyene, Tariku J; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bikbov, Boris; Bin Abdulhak, Aref A; Blore, Jed D; Blyth, Fiona M; Bohensky, Megan A; Bora Başara, Berrak; Borges, Guilherme; Bornstein, Natan M; Bose, Dipan; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert R; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J; Brenner, Hermann; Briggs, Adam D M; Broday, David M; Brooks, Peter M; Bruce, Nigel G; Brugha, Traolach S; Brunekreef, Bert; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bui, Linh N; Bukhman, Gene; Bulloch, Andrew G; Burch, Michael; Burney, Peter G J; Campos-Nonato, Ismael R; Campuzano, Julio C; Cantoral, Alejandra J; Caravanos, Jack; Cárdenas, Rosario; Cardis, Elisabeth; Carpenter, David O; Caso, Valeria; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Castro, Ruben E; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Çavlin, Alanur; Chadha, Vineet K; Chang, Jung-Chen; Charlson, Fiona J; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Wanqing; Chen, Zhengming; Chiang, Peggy P; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christophi, Costas A; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Chugh, Sumeet S; Cirillo, Massimo; Claßen, Thomas K D; Colistro, Valentina; Colomar, Mercedes; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Contreras, Alejandra G; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooperrider, Kimberly; Cooper, Leslie T; Coresh, Josef; Courville, Karen J; Criqui, Michael H; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia; Damsere-Derry, James; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I; Davis, Adrian; Davitoiu, Dragos V; Dayama, Anand; de Castro, E Filipa; De la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa; De Leo, Diego; de Lima, Graça; Degenhardt, Louisa; del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Dellavalle, Robert P; Deribe, Kebede; Derrett, Sarah; Des Jarlais, Don C; Dessalegn, Muluken; deVeber, Gabrielle A; Devries, Karen M; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dherani, Mukesh K; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric L; Dokova, Klara; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Durrani, Adnan M; Ebel, Beth E; Ellenbogen, Richard G; Elshrek, Yousef M; Endres, Matthias; Ermakov, Sergey P; Erskine, Holly E; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Fahimi, Saman; Faraon, Emerito Jose A; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Derek F J; Feigin, Valery L; Feigl, Andrea B; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Ferrari, Alize J; Ferri, Cleusa P; Flaxman, Abraham D; Fleming, Thomas D; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle J; Paleo, Urbano Fra; Franklin, Richard C; Gabbe, Belinda; Gaffikin, Lynne; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Gankpé, Fortuné G; Gansevoort, Ron T; García-Guerra, Francisco A; Gasana, Evariste; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Gething, Pete; Gibney, Katherine B; Gillum, Richard F; Ginawi, Ibrahim A M; Giroud, Maurice; Giussani, Giorgia; Goenka, Shifalika; Goginashvili, Ketevan; Gomez Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Gonzalez de Cosio, Teresita; González-Castell, Dinorah; Gotay, Carolyn C; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Guerrant, Richard L; Gugnani, Harish C; Guillemin, Francis; Gunnell, David; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gutiérrez, Reyna A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hagan, Holly; Hagstromer, Maria; Halasa, Yara A; Hamadeh, Randah R; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hankey, Graeme J; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L; Haregu, Tilahun Nigatu; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Simon I; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Heredia-Pi, Ileana B; Hernandez, Lucia; Heuton, Kyle R; Heydarpour, Pouria; Hijar, Martha; Hoek, Hans W; Hoffman, Howard J; Hornberger, John C; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Hu, Howard; Huang, Cheng; Huang, John J; Hubbell, Bryan J; Huiart, Laetitia; Husseini, Abdullatif; Iannarone, Marissa L; Iburg, Kim M; Idrisov, Bulat T; Ikeda, Nayu; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Ismayilova, Samaya; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jansen, Henrica A; Jarvis, Deborah L; Jassal, Simerjot K; Jauregui, Alejandra; Jayaraman, Sudha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Fan; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jonas, Jost B; Juel, Knud; Kan, Haidong; Kany Roseline, Sidibe S; Karam, Nadim E; Karch, André; Karema, Corine K; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazi, Dhruv S; Kemp, Andrew H; Kengne, Andre P; Keren, Andre; Khader, Yousef S; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan; Khan, Ejaz A; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khonelidze, Irma; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Sungroul; Kim, Yunjin; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M; Kissela, Brett M; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kose, M Rifat; Kosen, Soewarta; Kraemer, Alexander; Kravchenko, Michael; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kromhout, Hans; Ku, Tiffany; Kuate Defo, Barthelemy; Kucuk Bicer, Burcu; Kuipers, Ernst J; Kulkarni, Chanda; Kulkarni, Veena S; Kumar, G Anil; Kwan, Gene F; Lai, Taavi; Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C; Larson, Heidi J; Larsson, Anders; Laryea, Dennis O; Lavados, Pablo M; Lawrynowicz, Alicia E; Leasher, Janet L; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liang, Juan; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S; Lindsay, M Patrice; Lipshultz, Steven E; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K; Logroscino, Giancarlo; London, Stephanie J; Lopez, Nancy; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lozano, Rafael; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Ma, Jixiang; Ma, Stefan; Machado, Vasco M P; MacIntyre, Michael F; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mahdi, Abbas A; Majdan, Marek; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mapoma, Christopher C; Marape, Marape; Marcenes, Wagner; Margolis, David J; Margono, Christopher; Marks, Guy B; Martin, Randall V; Marzan, Melvin B; Mashal, Mohammad T; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M; Mazorodze, Tasara T; McKay, Abigail C; McKee, Martin; McLain, Abigail; Meaney, Peter A; Medina, Catalina; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Melaku, Yohannes A; Meltzer, Michele; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Mensah, George A; Meretoja, Atte; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Misganaw, Awoke; Mishra, Santosh; Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah; Mohammad, Karzan A; Mokdad, Ali H; Mola, Glen L; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montañez Hernandez, Julio C; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Moschandreas, Joanna; Moturi, Wilkister N; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mueller, Ulrich O; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru; Mullany, Erin C; Murthy, Kinnari S; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nahas, Ziad; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S; Naldi, Luigi; Nand, Devina; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, K M Venkat; Nash, Denis; Neal, Bruce; Nejjari, Chakib; Neupane, Sudan P; Newton, Charles R; Ngalesoni, Frida N; Ngirabega, Jean de Dieu; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Nhung T; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Nisar, Muhammad I; Nogueira, José R; Nolla, Joan M; Nolte, Sandra; Norheim, Ole F; Norman, Rosana E; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Oh, In-Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olusanya, Bolajoko O; Omer, Saad B; Opio, John Nelson; Orozco, Ricardo; Pagcatipunan, Rodolfo S; Pain, Amanda W; Pandian, Jeyaraj D; Panelo, Carlo Irwin A; Papachristou, Christina; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J; Patten, Scott B; Paul, Vinod K; Pavlin, Boris I; Pearce, Neil; Pedraza, Lilia S; Pedroza, Andrea; Pejin Stokic, Ljiljana; Pekericli, Ayfer; Pereira, David M; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando; Perico, Norberto; Perry, Samuel A L; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Peterson, Carrie B; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Phua, Hwee Pin; Plass, Dietrich; Poenaru, Dan; Polanczyk, Guilherme V; Polinder, Suzanne; Pond, Constance D; Pope, C Arden; Pope, Daniel; Popova, Svetlana; Pourmalek, Farshad; Powles, John; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Prasad, Noela M; Qato, Dima M; Quezada, Amado D; Quistberg, D Alex A; Racapé, Lionel; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Raju, Murugesan; Rakovac, Ivo; Rana, Saleem M; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Reddy, K Srinath; Refaat, Amany H; Rehm, Jürgen; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Ribeiro, Antonio L; Riccio, Patricia M; Richardson, Lee; Riederer, Anne; Robinson, Margaret; Roca, Anna; Rodriguez, Alina; Rojas-Rueda, David; Romieu, Isabelle; Ronfani, Luca; Room, Robin; Roy, Nobhojit; Ruhago, George M; Rushton, Lesley; Sabin, Nsanzimana; Sacco, Ralph L; Saha, Sukanta; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Salomon, Joshua A; Salvo, Deborah; Sampson, Uchechukwu K; Sanabria, Juan R; Sanchez, Luz Maria; Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sandar, Logan; Santos, Itamar S; Sapkota, Amir; Satpathy, Maheswar; Saunders, James E; Sawhney, Monika; Saylan, Mete I; Scarborough, Peter; Schmidt, Jürgen C; Schneider, Ione J C; Schöttker, Ben; Schwebel, David C; Scott, James G; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Serdar, Berrin; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Shaddick, Gavin; Shahraz, Saeid; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Shangguan, Siyi; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin H; Shinohara, Yukito; Shiri, Rahman; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga D; Silberberg, Donald H; Simard, Edgar P; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Gitanjali M; Singh, Jasvinder A; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soljak, Michael; Soneji, Samir; Søreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stapelberg, Nicolas J C; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steckling, Nadine; Stein, Dan J; Stein, Murray B; Stephens, Natalie; Stöckl, Heidi; Straif, Kurt; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sturua, Lela; Sunguya, Bruno F; Swaminathan, Soumya; Swaroop, Mamta; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabb, Karen M; Takahashi, Ken; Talongwa, Roberto T; Tandon, Nikhil; Tanne, David; Tanner, Marcel; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Te Ao, Braden J; Teixeira, Carolina M; Téllez Rojo, Martha M; Terkawi, Abdullah S; Texcalac-Sangrador, José Luis; Thackway, Sarah V; Thomson, Blake; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Thrift, Amanda G; Thurston, George D; Tillmann, Taavi; Tobollik, Myriam; Tonelli, Marcello; Topouzis, Fotis; Towbin, Jeffrey A; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach X; Trasande, Leonardo; Trillini, Matias; Trujillo, Ulises; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Tuzcu, Emin Murat; Uchendu, Uche S; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Uzun, Selen B; van de Vijver, Steven; Van Dingenen, Rita; van Gool, Coen H; van Os, Jim; Varakin, Yuri Y; Vasankari, Tommi J; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria N; Vavilala, Monica S; Veerman, Lennert J; Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo; Venketasubramanian, N; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Villalpando, Salvador; Violante, Francesco S; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wagner, Gregory R; Waller, Stephen G; Wallin, Mitchell T; Wan, Xia; Wang, Haidong; Wang, JianLi; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Wenzhi; Wang, Yanping; Warouw, Tati S; Watts, Charlotte H; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Werdecker, Andrea; Wessells, K Ryan; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Williams, Thomas N; Woldeyohannes, Solomon M; Wolfe, Charles D A; Wong, John Q; Woolf, Anthony D; Wright, Jonathan L; Wurtz, Brittany; Xu, Gelin; Yan, Lijing L; Yang, Gonghuan; Yano, Yuichiro; Ye, Pengpeng; Yenesew, Muluken; Yentür, Gökalp K; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z; Younoussi, Zourkaleini; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaki, Maysaa E; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Zhu, Shankuan; Zou, Xiaonong; Zunt, Joseph R; Lopez, Alan D; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J

2015-12-05

[UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options

Risk Reduction Methods for Managing the Development of Regional Electric Power Industry

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Mikhail Kozhevnikov

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The development of the regional electric power industry has come to the forefront due to the changing scale, quality, and configuration of electric power infrastructure, and the spread of distributed generation. This gives rise to more stringent requirements regarding the reliability, safety, and environmental impact of electric power supply. This article aims to justify a package of methods that make it possible to identify and minimize investment, production, financial, and environmental risks in order to ensure sustainable development of the regional electric power industry that performs anti-crisis functions, and of individual energy companies. The key method to be employed is integrated resource planning (IRP. As a part of the method, energy conservation, renewable energy sources, and combined heat and power production are considered as equally valid ways of meeting future demand. The authors have designed a methodology for taking into account uncertainty and risk when implementing IRP. The methodology includes analysis of scenarios and decision making processes by calculating past and projected values of profit indicators. When conducting the environmental and economic assessment of an investment project in the electric power industry, the authors suggest using an aggregate indicator of environmental and economic effectiveness that is calculated on the basis of a combination of locally significant positive and negative environmental and economic impacts of the project. The authors formulate conceptual provisions that serve as the foundation for a promising model of the regional electric power industry and which contain recommendations for managing the development of the industry while minimizing organizational, market, and technological risks.

The contribution of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia to seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Central Asian region

Science.gov (United States)

Parolai, S.; Bindi, D.; Haberland, C. A.; Pittore, M.; Pilz, M.; Rosenau, M.; Schurr, B.; Wieland, M.; Yuan, X.

2012-12-01

Central Asia has one of the world's highest levels of earthquake hazard, owing to its exceptionally high deformation rates. Moreover, vulnerability to natural disasters in general is increasing, due to rising populations and a growing dependence on complex lifelines and technology. Therefore, there is an urgent need to undertake seismic hazard and risk assessment in this region, while at the same time improving upon existing methodologies, including the consideration of temporal variability in the seismic hazard, and in structural and social vulnerability. Over the last few years, the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), in collaboration with local partners, has initiated a number of scientific activities within the framework of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia (GCO-CA). The work is divided into projects with specific concerns: - The installation and maintenance of the Central-Asian Real-time Earthquake MOnitoring Network (CAREMON) and the setup of a permanent wireless mesh network for structural health monitoring in Bishkek. - The TIPAGE and TIPTIMON projects focus on the geodynamics of the Tien-Shan, Pamir and Hindu Kush region, the deepest and most active intra-continental subduction zone in the world. The work covers time scales from millions of years to short-term snapshots based on geophysical measurements of seismotectonic activity and of the physical properties of the crust and upper mantle, as well as their coupling with other surface processes (e.g., landslides). - Existing risk analysis methods assume time-independent earthquake hazard and risk, although temporal changes are likely to occur due to, for example, co- and post-seismic changes in the regional stress field. We therefore aim to develop systematic time-dependent hazard and risk analysis methods in order to undertake the temporal quantification of earthquake activity (PROGRESS). - To improve seismic hazard assessment for better loss estimation, detailed site effects studies

Patterns of white matter microstructure in individuals at ultra-high-risk for psychosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krakauer, K; Ebdrup, B H; Glenthøj, B Y

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Individuals at ultra-high-risk (UHR) for psychosis present with emerging symptoms and decline in functioning. Previous univariate analyses have indicated widespread white matter (WM) aberrations in multiple brain regions in UHR individuals and patients with schizophrenia. Using multiv......, MO, and higher RD. CONCLUSIONS: UHR individuals demonstrate complex brain patterns of WM abnormalities. Despite the subtle psychopathology of UHR individuals, aberrations in WM appear associated with positive and negative symptoms as well as level of functioning....

Chernobyl nuclear catastrophe and the high risk potential for mental retardation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holowinsky, I.Z.

1993-01-01

The nuclear explosion at Chernobyl nuclear reactor on April 26, 1986, continues to have wide political, social, and medical ramifications. Hot debris from the Chernobyl reactor covered an area of more than 5,000 square kilometers with nearly 20 million curies of radionuclides. Eleven regions with a population of nearly 17 million people, of whom 2.5 million were children below the age of 5 years, suffered some degree of radioactive contamination. These children are currently of elementary school age. One of the tragedies of the explosion is that thousands of these children are at high risk for mental retardation and learning disorders

Who Takes Risks in High-Risk Sports? A Typological Personality Approach

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Castanier, Carole; Le Scanff, Christine; Woodman, Tim

2010-01-01

We investigated the risk-taking behaviors of 302 men involved in high-risk sports (downhill skiing, mountaineering, rock climbing, paragliding, or skydiving). The sportsmen were classified using a typological approach to personality based on eight personality types, which were constructed from combinations of neuroticism, extraversion, and…

Differences in Neural Correlates of Speech Perception in 3 Month Olds at High and Low Risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder.

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Edwards, Laura A; Wagner, Jennifer B; Tager-Flusberg, Helen; Nelson, Charles A

2017-10-01

In this study, we investigated neural precursors of language acquisition as potential endophenotypes of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in 3-month-old infants at high and low familial ASD risk. Infants were imaged using functional near-infrared spectroscopy while they listened to auditory stimuli containing syllable repetitions; their neural responses were analyzed over left and right temporal regions. While female low risk infants showed initial neural activation that decreased over exposure to repetition-based stimuli, potentially indicating a habituation response to repetition in speech, female high risk infants showed no changes in neural activity over exposure. This finding may indicate a potential neural endophenotype of language development or ASD specific to females at risk for the disorder.

Is Miscanthus a High Risk Biofuel Feedstock Prospect for the Upper Midwest US?

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Kucharik, C. J.; VanLoocke, A. D.

2011-12-01

Miscanthus is a highly productive C4 perennial rhizomatous grass that is native to Southeast Asia, but its potential as a feedstock for cellulosic biofuel in the Midwest US is intriguing given extremely high productivity for low amounts of agrochemical inputs. However, Miscanthus x giganteus, a key variety currently studied is not planted from seed, but rather from rhizomes planted at a soil depth of 5 to 10 cm. Therefore, it is costly to establish on the basis of both time and money, making it a potentially risky investment in geographic regions that experience cold wintertime temperatures that can effectively kill the crop. The 50% kill threshold for M. giganteus rhizomes occurs when soil temperatures fall below -3.5C, which may contribute to a high risk of improper establishment during the first few seasons. Our first objective here was to study a historical, simulated reconstruction of daily wintertime soil temperatures at high spatial resolution (5 min) across the Midwest US from 1948-2007, and use this information to quantify the frequency that lethal soil temperature thresholds for Miscanthus were reached. A second objective was to investigate how the use of crop residues could impact wintertime soil temperatures. In this study, a dynamic agroecosystem model (Agro-IBIS) that has been modified to simulate Miscanthus growth and phenology was used in conjunction with high-resolution datasets of soil texture and daily gridded weather data. Model simulations suggest that across the states of North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and the northern half of Iowa, the kill threshold of -3.5C at a 10cm soil depth was reached in 70-95% of the simulation years. A boundary representing a 50% likelihood of reaching -3.5C at 10cm depth in any given year runs approximately from east central Colorado, thought northern Kansas and Missouri, through central Illinois, central Indiana, and central Ohio. An analysis of monthly mean 10cm soil temperatures

A social work study high-risk behavior among teenagers

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Mohammad Reza Iravani

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Teenagers are believed the people who are supposed to build the world's future. High-risk behaviors such as addiction to drugs, smoking cigarettes, sex, etc. could significantly hurts teenagers and there must be some supporting programs to reduce these issues as much as possible. This paper performs an empirical investigation to study the different factors influencing high- risk behavior among teenagers who live in a city of Esfahan, Iran. The proposed study designs a questionnaire and distribute between two groups of female and male teenagers. The results indicate that while there is a meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and average high school marks among male students there is no meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and high school grades among female students. The results also indicate that there is a meaningful difference between gender and high-risk behavior. The season of birth for female and male students is another important factor for having high-risk behaviors. While the order of birth plays an important role among male students, the order of birth is not an important factor among female teenagers. Finally, the results indicate that teenagers' parental financial affordability plays a vital role on both female and male teenagers.

The high-resolution regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6

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Ohlwein, C.

2016-12-01

Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. The regional reanalysis for Europe matches the domain of the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km) and comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO complemented by a special soil moisture analysis with boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim data. The reanalysis data set covers the past 20 years. Extensive evaluation of the reanalysis is performed using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations indicating a better representation of small scale variability. Further, the evaluation shows an added value of the regional reanalysis with respect to the forcing ERA Interim reanalysis and compared to a pure high-resolution dynamical downscaling approach without data assimilation.

Evaluation of Risk Management Strategies for a Low-Cost, High-Risk Project

Science.gov (United States)

Shishko, Robert; Jorgensen, Edward J.

1996-01-01

This paper summarizes work in progress to define and implement a risk management process tailored to a low-cost, high-risk, NASA mission -the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX, commonly called the Mars microrover).

Association between dietary pattern and risk of cardiovascular disease among adults in the Middle East and North Africa region: a systematic review

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Najlaa Aljefree

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Objective: This paper reviews the evidence related to the association of dietary pattern with coronary heart disease (CHD, strokes, and the associated risk factors among adults in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region. Methods: A systematic review of published articles between January 1990 and March 2015 was conducted using Pro-Quest Public Health, MEDLINE, and Google Scholar. The term ‘dietary pattern’ refers to data derived from dietary pattern analyses and individual food component analyses. Results: The search identified 15 studies. The available data in the MENA region showed that Western dietary pattern has been predominant among adults with fewer adherences to the traditional diet, such as the Mediterranean diet. The Western dietary pattern was found to be associated with an increased risk of dyslipidaemia, diabetes, metabolic syndrome (MetS, body mass index (BMI, and hypertension. The Mediterranean diet, labelled in two studies as ‘the traditional Lebanese diet’, was negatively associated with BMI, waist circumference (WC, and the risk of diabetes, while one study found no association between the Mediterranean diet and MetS. Two randomised controlled trials conducted in Iran demonstrated the effect of the dietary approach to stop hypertension (DASH in reducing metabolic risk among patients with diabetes and MetS. Likewise, the consumption of dairy products was associated with decreased blood pressure and WC, while the intake of whole grains was associated with reduced WC. In addition, the high consumption of black tea was found to be associated with decreased serum lipids. The intake of fish, vegetable oils, and tea had a protective effect on CHD, whereas the intake of full-fat yoghurt and hydrogenated fats was associated with an increased risk of CHD. Conclusion: There appears to be a significant association of Western dietary pattern with the increased risk of CHD, strokes, and associated risk factors among adults in

Inconsistencies of Breast Cancer Risk Factors between the Northern and Southern Regions of Vietnam

Science.gov (United States)

Trieu, Phuong Dung (Yun); Mello-Thoms, Claudia; Peat, Jennifer K; Do, Thuan Doan; Brennan, Patrick C

2017-10-26

Background: In recent decades the amount of new breast cancer cases in the southern region has been reported to increase more rapidly than in the northernVietnam. The aim of this study is to compare breast cancer risk factors between the two regions and establish if westernized influences have an impact on any reported differences. Method: Data was collected from the two largest oncology hospitals in the north and the south of Vietnam in 2015. Breast density, demographic, reproductive and lifestyle data of 127 cases and 269 controls were collected in the north and 141 cases and 250 controls were gathered from the south. Baseline differences in factors between cases and age-matched controls in each region were assessed using chi-square tests and independent t-tests. Odds ratios (OR) for independent risk factors for breast cancer were obtained from conditional logistic regression. Results: In northern Vietnam significantly increased risks in developing breast cancer were observed for women with age at first menstrual period less than 14 years old (OR=2.1; Pcup of coffee per day (OR=1.9; P<0.05) were more likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer. Conclusion: We found that women living in the south had some breast cancer associations, such as increased mammographic density and coffee consumption, which are closer to the risks in westernized populations than women in the north. Creative Commons Attribution License

Potential Bias in Projecting Future Regional Megadrought Risk: Insights From A Global Data-Model Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T.; Cole, J. E.; Fasullo, J.; Loope, G. R.; Parsons, L. A.; Stevenson, S.

2015-12-01

Megadrought is one of the most significant and costly climate extremes, and one that stakeholders (e.g., water and other resource managers) the world over wish to understand better; in particular, they need estimates of the risk of severe droughts as a function of drought frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. In many dry-climate regions of the globe, megadrought is synonymous with multi-decadal drought. However, in other regions, megadrought can be defined as extended drought, mostly not seen in the period of instrumental observations, and that would have large impacts if it were to occur in the future. New and published paleoclimatic observations allow us to understand the spectrum of drought in many regions of the globe; droughts exceeding 50 years have occurred in recent Earth history in southwestern North America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Mediterranean and Australia, whereas shorter megadroughts have occurred in Monsoon Asia, Amazonia and elsewhere. Data-model comparisons for regions with sufficiently long (e.g., 1000-2000 years) records of observed hydroclimatic variability suggest that state-of-the-art models can provide realistic estimates of interannual to decadal drought risk, but underestimate the risk of megadrought. Likely reasons for this shortcoming are the lack of sufficient multi-decadal variability in simulations of the past and future, plus an underappreciated understanding about how temperature variability and land-surface feedbacks interact with hydrological and ecological drought, as well as the roles played by unusually wet hydroclimatic extremes (e.g., ENSO related) in ending droughts of long duration. Paleoclimatic records also provide the opportunity to estimate how much models underestimate megadrought risk as a function of locale, frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration; they also aid in providing stakeholders with bias-corrected estimates of megadrought risk.

Fine mapping in the MHC region accounts for 18% additional genetic risk for celiac disease

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gutierrez-Achury, Javier; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Pulit, Sara L.; Trynka, Gosia; Hunt, Karen A.; Romanos, Jihane; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; van Heel, David A.; Wijmenga, Cisca; de Balcker, Paul I. W.

Although dietary gluten is the trigger for celiac disease, risk is strongly influenced by genetic variation in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region. We fine mapped the MHC association signal to identify additional risk factors independent of the HLA-DQA1 and HLA-DQB1 alleles and

Functional Dysconnection of the Inferior Frontal Gyrus in Young People With Bipolar Disorder or at Genetic High Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Gloria; Lord, Anton; Frankland, Andrew; Wright, Adam; Lau, Phoebe; Levy, Florence; Lenroot, Rhoshel K; Mitchell, Philip B; Breakspear, Michael

2017-04-15

Bipolar disorder (BD) is characterized by a dysregulation of affect and impaired integration of emotion with cognition. These traits are also expressed in probands at high genetic risk of BD. The inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) is a key cortical hub in the circuits of emotion and cognitive control, and it has been frequently associated with BD. Here, we studied resting-state functional connectivity of the left IFG in participants with BD and in those at increased genetic risk. Using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging we compared 49 young BD participants, 71 individuals with at least one first-degree relative with BD (at-risk), and 80 control subjects. We performed between-group analyses of the functional connectivity of the left IFG and used graph theory to study its local functional network topology. We also used machine learning to study classification based solely on the functional connectivity of the IFG. In BD, the left IFG was functionally dysconnected from a network of regions, including bilateral insulae, ventrolateral prefrontal gyri, superior temporal gyri, and the putamen (p < .001). A small network incorporating neighboring insular regions and the anterior cingulate cortex showed weaker functional connectivity in at-risk than control participants (p < .006). These constellations of regions overlapped with frontolimbic regions that a machine learning classifier selected as predicting group membership with an accuracy significantly greater than chance. Functional dysconnectivity of the IFG from regions involved in emotional regulation may represent a trait abnormality for BD and could potentially aid clinical diagnosis. Copyright © 2016 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors and the occurrence of cerebral palsy in high risk infants

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Setyo Handryastuti

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Background The incidence of cerebral palsy (CP has increased due to better survival rates of high-risk babies. Early detection and time to the occurrence of CP in the first year of life is important in order to provide early intervention. Objectives To determine the proportion of CP in high-risk babies, the time to the occurrence of CP in the first year, and assess possible associations between risk factors of CP and time to the occurrence of CP. Methods A prospective cohort study was done on 150 high-risk babies up to the age of 12 months. We obtained history of motor ability and assessed primitive reflexes and postural reactions of subjects at the ages of 4 and 6 months. The diagnosis of CP was established at 6 and 12 months of age. Results The proportion of CP was 26% at 6 months and 24% at 12 months of age. Significant risk factors associated with CP at 6 and 12 months of age were cerebral ultrasound abnormalities, hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy, and intracranial hemorrhage. In 88.7% of subjects with CP, CP was detected in the first 6 months. Mean age at the occurrence of CP was 9.99 months (95%CI 9.46 to 10.53. Risk factors that significantly affected the time to the occurrence of CP by survival analysis were ultrasound abnormalities and hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy. Conclusions Cerebral palsy can be detected as early as the first 6 months of life. Cerebral ultrasound abnormalities and hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy are the risk factors associated with CP.

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92%) used an observational design and focused on women (70%) with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups) and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although evolving, is still

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tilburt Jon C

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92% used an observational design and focused on women (70% with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although

Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

Science.gov (United States)

Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

2015-04-01

The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors

Risk of contamination of wild berries from upper Orava region by cadmium

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Stanislav Zupka

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The upper Orava region is located at the North Slovakia, near of potential sources of environmental contamination due by mining of coal, zinc and lead ores. The aim of the study was to evaluate the risk of consumption of wild forest fruit from Upper Orava region from the aspect of cadmium content. Ten sampling points were found by random search. From these points samples of soil, leaves and fruits of wild berries (9 samples of blueberries Vaccinium Myrtillus and 1 sample of strawberries Fragaria Vesca were collected. In soil samples the active soil reaction (pH/H2O ranged from 3.53 (strong acidity to 4.56 (extremly strong acidity, and the determined percentage of humus ranged from 1.66 (low humic soil to 4.90 (high humic soil.  In two soil samples the total content of cadmium determinated in soil extracts by aqua regia exceeded limit 0.70 mg.kg-1 given by the legislation in tne Slovak Republic. In three soil samples the determined content of cadmium mobile forms determined in soil extracts by NH4NO3 exceeded the limit 0.10 mg.kg-1. The content of Cd determined in leaves as well as in fruits was evaluated according to Food Codex of the Slovak Republic. Only in one sample of leaf samples the limit 1.00 mg.kg-1 was exceeded. The other leaf samples are safely when used as an ingredient in tea mixtures. On the other hand even in 7 fruit samples the limit 0.05 mg.kg-1 was exceeded. This fruit can pose a risk for the human organism when is directly consumed as well as may negatively affect the human health when is used as raw materials in the food industry. 

One size does not fit all: HIV testing preferences differ among high-risk groups in Northern Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Ostermann, Jan; Njau, Bernard; Mtuy, Tara; Brown, Derek S; Mühlbacher, Axel; Thielman, Nathan

2015-01-01

In order to maximize the effectiveness of "Seek, Test, and Treat" strategies for curbing the HIV epidemic, new approaches are needed to increase the uptake of HIV testing services, particularly among high-risk groups. Low HIV testing rates among such groups suggest that current testing services may not align well with the testing preferences of these populations. Female bar workers and male mountain porters have been identified as two important high-risk groups in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania. We used conventional survey methods and a discrete choice experiment (DCE), a preference elicitation method increasingly applied by economists and policy-makers to inform health policy and services, to analyze trade-offs made by individuals and quantify preferences for HIV testing services. Bivariate descriptive statistics were used to analyze differences in survey responses across groups. Compared to 486 randomly selected community members, 162 female bar workers and 194 male Kilimanjaro porters reported 2-3 times as many lifetime sexual partners (p porters preferred testing in venues where antiretroviral therapy was readily available. Both high-risk groups were less averse to traveling longer distances to test compared to their community counterparts. These results expose systematic differences in HIV testing preferences across high-risk populations compared to their community peers. Tailoring testing options to the preferences of high-risk populations should be evaluated as a means of improving uptake of testing in these populations.

Effects of Urbanization Expansion on Landscape Pattern and Region Ecological Risk in Chinese Coastal City: A Case Study of Yantai City

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, D.; Yu, J.; Li, Y.; Zhan, C.

2017-12-01

Applied with remote sensing, GIS, and mathematical statistics, the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of urbanization expansion of Yantai city from1974 to 2009 was studied. Based on landscape pattern metrics and ecological risk index, the landscape ecological risk from the landscape pattern dynamics was evaluated. The results showed that the area of urban land increased by 189.77 km2 with average expansion area of 5.42 km2 y-1 from1974 to 2009.The urbanization intensity index during 2004-2009 was 3.92 times of that during 1974-1990. The land use types of urban land and farmland changed greatly. The changes of landscape pattern metrics for land use patterns indicated that the intensity of human activities had strengthened gradually in study period. The landscape ecological risk pattern of Yantai city shaped half-round rings along the coastline. The ecological risk index decreased with increase of the distance to the coastline. The ratio of high ecological risk to sub-high ecological risk zones in 2009 was 2.23 times of that in 1990.The significant linear relationship of urbanization intensity index and regional ecological risk indicated that the anthropological economic activities were decisive factors for sustainable development of costal ecological environment.

Psychological characteristics in high-risk MSM in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen Guanzhi

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Men who have sex with men (MSM have become a high-risk group of HIV infection in China. To date, little is known regarding the behavioral, social and psychological characteristics in Chinese MSM, which makes the implementation of preventive and therapeutic strategies for this high-risk subpopulation of people extremely difficult. Methods A total of 714 questionnaires were retrieved from the database of a Chinese government-sponsored National Key Research Project titled "Risk Analysis and Strategic Prevention of HIV Transmission from MSM to the General Population in China". The respondents were categorized into a high-risk group and a control group. Their behavioral, social and psychological characteristics were comparatively analyzed. Results Of the 714 MSM analyzed, 59 (8.26% had high-risk homosexual behaviors. This sub-group of MSM had a higher in-marriage rate, a higher monthly income, heavier alcohol consumption and more serious problems with sexual abuse in childhood, intentional suicide attempts and mistaken assumption on condom's role in protecting HIV infection, as compared with the control group (P P > 0.05. A vast majority of the individuals in both behavior categories expressed support of legally protected gay clubs as well as gay marriage legislation in China. There was a strong correlation between high-risk behaviors and sexual abuse in childhood, alcohol drinking, income level and a mistaken belief in perfect HIV protection through the use of condoms. Conclusions MSM with and without high-risk homosexual behaviors have different social and psychological characteristics, which should be taken into account when implementing behavioral and therapeutic interventions aimed at preventing HIV/AIDS transmission among MSM as well as from MSM to the general population in China.

Predictive risk modelling under different data access scenarios: who is identified as high risk and for how long?

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Tracy L; Kaldor, Jill; Sutherland, Kim; Humphries, Jacob; Jorm, Louisa R; Levesque, Jean-Frederic

2018-01-01

Objective This observational study critically explored the performance of different predictive risk models simulating three data access scenarios, comparing: (1) sociodemographic and clinical profiles; (2) consistency in high-risk designation across models; and (3) persistence of high-risk status over time. Methods Cross-sectional health survey data (2006–2009) for more than 260 000 Australian adults 45+ years were linked to longitudinal individual hospital, primary care, pharmacy and mortality data. Three risk models predicting acute emergency hospitalisations were explored, simulating conditions where data are accessed through primary care practice management systems, or through hospital-based electronic records, or through a hypothetical ‘full’ model using a wider array of linked data. High-risk patients were identified using different risk score thresholds. Models were reapplied monthly for 24 months to assess persistence in high-risk categorisation. Results The three models displayed similar statistical performance. Three-quarters of patients in the high-risk quintile from the ‘full’ model were also identified using the primary care or hospital-based models, with the remaining patients differing according to age, frailty, multimorbidity, self-rated health, polypharmacy, prior hospitalisations and imminent mortality. The use of higher risk prediction thresholds resulted in lower levels of agreement in high-risk designation across models and greater morbidity and mortality in identified patient populations. Persistence of high-risk status varied across approaches according to updated information on utilisation history, with up to 25% of patients reassessed as lower risk within 1 year. Conclusion/implications Small differences in risk predictors or risk thresholds resulted in comparatively large differences in who was classified as high risk and for how long. Pragmatic predictive risk modelling design decisions based on data availability or projected

Can Regional Climate Models be used in the assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events?

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Nunes, Ana

2015-04-01

Extreme meteorological events played an important role in catastrophic occurrences observed in the past over densely populated areas in Brazil. This motived the proposal of an integrated system for analysis and assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events in urban areas that are particularly affected by complex topography. That requires a multi-scale approach, which is centered on a regional modeling system, consisting of a regional (spectral) climate model coupled to a land-surface scheme. This regional modeling system employs a boundary forcing method based on scale-selective bias correction and assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Scale-selective bias correction is a method similar to the spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling that allows internal modes to develop in agreement with the large-scale features, while the precipitation assimilation procedure improves the modeled deep-convection and drives the land-surface scheme variables. Here, the scale-selective bias correction acts only on the rotational part of the wind field, letting the precipitation assimilation procedure to correct moisture convergence, in order to reconstruct South American current climate within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. The hydroclimate reconstruction outputs might eventually produce improved initial conditions for high-resolution numerical integrations in metropolitan regions, generating more reliable short-term precipitation predictions, and providing accurate hidrometeorological variables to higher resolution geomorphological models. Better representation of deep-convection from intermediate scales is relevant when the resolution of the regional modeling system is refined by any method to meet the scale of geomorphological dynamic models of stability and mass movement, assisting in the assessment of risk areas and estimation of terrain stability over complex topography. The reconstruction of past extreme

Common and rare variants in the exons and regulatory regions of osteoporosis-related genes improve osteoporotic fracture risk prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Seung Hun; Kang, Moo Il; Ahn, Seong Hee; Lim, Kyeong-Hye; Lee, Gun Eui; Shin, Eun-Soon; Lee, Jong-Eun; Kim, Beom-Jun; Cho, Eun-Hee; Kim, Sang-Wook; Kim, Tae-Ho; Kim, Hyun-Ju; Yoon, Kun-Ho; Lee, Won Chul; Kim, Ghi Su; Koh, Jung-Min; Kim, Shin-Yoon

2014-11-01

Osteoporotic fracture risk is highly heritable, but genome-wide association studies have explained only a small proportion of the heritability to date. Genetic data may improve prediction of fracture risk in osteopenic subjects and assist early intervention and management. To detect common and rare variants in coding and regulatory regions related to osteoporosis-related traits, and to investigate whether genetic profiling improves the prediction of fracture risk. This cross-sectional study was conducted in three clinical units in Korea. Postmenopausal women with extreme phenotypes (n = 982) were used for the discovery set, and 3895 participants were used for the replication set. We performed targeted resequencing of 198 genes. Genetic risk scores from common variants (GRS-C) and from common and rare variants (GRS-T) were calculated. Nineteen common variants in 17 genes (of the discovered 34 functional variants in 26 genes) and 31 rare variants in five genes (of the discovered 87 functional variants in 15 genes) were associated with one or more osteoporosis-related traits. Accuracy of fracture risk classification was improved in the osteopenic patients by adding GRS-C to fracture risk assessment models (6.8%; P risk in an osteopenic individual.

Iodine supply in diet in various european regions and risks of iodine prophylaxis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumont, J.E.

1991-01-01

The main risk of low level irradiation of the thyroid is the induction of thyroid neoplasia. In the case of nuclear accidents this risk depends on the level of radioiodine uptake and half life in the thyroid, on the size of the gland and on the relative biological efficiency of the emitted radiation especially at low doses. The level of radioiodine uptake is inversely related to stable iodine supply in the diet. In this study it was proposed to: 1. systematically survey iodine supply in the diet, radioiodine uptake and thyroid kinetics in various European regions. Most of these data are readily available. Taken together with presently accepted estimates of relative biological efficiency, the radiation doses at various contamination levels and risks could be computed and tabulated as an easy-to-use basis for decision guidelines. 2. to obtain in vitro from human autopsy material, radioiodine kinetics data in fetal thyroid to complement data in vivo in a model animal close to man (the chimpanzee) at various dietary iodine levels. Urinary iodine excretions vary in Europe from one region to another from 16 to 250 ug/day. The full spectrum from severe iodine deficiency to normal dietary intake exists in Europe. It is therefore quite to be expected that 24h thyroid radioiodine uptakes vary from 19 to 83%. Therefore for a similar radioiodide contamination the thyroid exposure will vary from one region to another by a factor of 4

Groundwater chemistry and human health risk assessment in the mining region of East Singhbhum, Jharkhand, India.

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Singh, Umesh Kumar; Ramanathan, A L; Subramanian, V

2018-08-01

Groundwater chemistry of mining region of East Singhbhum district having complex contaminant sources were investigated based on heavy metals loads and other hydrochemical constituents. This study aimed to identify the degree of heavy metals exposure and their potential health risk to local population. The results of hydrochemical analysis showed that Na + , K + , and Ca 2+ ions are the dominant cations in the groundwater, while HCO 3 - , F - and Cl - ions dominate the anionic part of the groundwater. The weathering process was considered the dominant factor to determine the major ionic composition in the study area. Compositional analysis for heavy metal has identified that groundwater of the study area is contaminated by Cd, Pb and Cr elements. Source of these metals have been identified as an anthropogenic inputs from mining activities and mineral processing units. Health risk analysis of individual heavy metal for chronic daily intake (CDI) and hazard quotient (HQ) was found in the order of Cr > As > Cd > Pb which is indicating high health risk for the population. In addition, Hazard Index (HI) analysis for heavy metals was found significantly high (>1) which is considered as a threat for human population because they have the tendency to accumulate in the body and cause variety of diseases like kidney problem, dysfunction of liver and renal cortex as well as cancer. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of modifiable risk factors on geographic mortality differentials: a modelling study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stevenson Christopher E

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Australian mortality rates are higher in regional and remote areas than in major cities. The degree to which this is driven by variation in modifiable risk factors is unknown. Methods We applied a risk prediction equation incorporating smoking, cholesterol and blood pressure to a national, population based survey to project all-causes mortality risk by geographic region. We then modelled life expectancies at different levels of mortality risk by geographic region using a risk percentiles model. Finally we set high values of each risk factor to a target level and modelled the subsequent shift in the population to lower levels of mortality risk and longer life expectancy. Results Survival is poorer in both Inner Regional and Outer Regional/Remote areas compared to Major Cities for men and women at both high and low levels of predicted mortality risk. For men smoking, high cholesterol and high systolic blood pressure were each associated with the mortality difference between Major Cities and Outer Regional/Remote areas--accounting for 21.4%, 20.3% and 7.7% of the difference respectively. For women smoking and high cholesterol accounted for 29.4% and 24.0% of the difference respectively but high blood pressure did not contribute to the observed mortality differences. The three risk factors taken together accounted for 45.4% (men and 35.6% (women of the mortality difference. The contribution of risk factors to the corresponding differences for inner regional areas was smaller, with only high cholesterol and smoking contributing to the difference in men-- accounting for 8.8% and 6.3% respectively-- and only smoking contributing to the difference in women--accounting for 12.3%. Conclusions These results suggest that health intervention programs aimed at smoking, blood pressure and total cholesterol could have a substantial impact on mortality inequities for Outer Regional/Remote areas.

The "polyenviromic risk score": Aggregating environmental risk factors predicts conversion to psychosis in familial high-risk subjects.

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Padmanabhan, Jaya L; Shah, Jai L; Tandon, Neeraj; Keshavan, Matcheri S

2017-03-01

Young relatives of individuals with schizophrenia (i.e. youth at familial high-risk, FHR) are at increased risk of developing psychotic disorders, and show higher rates of psychiatric symptoms, cognitive and neurobiological abnormalities than non-relatives. It is not known whether overall exposure to environmental risk factors increases risk of conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Subjects consisted of a pilot longitudinal sample of 83 young FHR subjects. As a proof of principle, we examined whether an aggregate score of exposure to environmental risk factors, which we term a 'polyenviromic risk score' (PERS), could predict conversion to psychosis. The PERS combines known environmental risk factors including cannabis use, urbanicity, season of birth, paternal age, obstetric and perinatal complications, and various types of childhood adversity, each weighted by its odds ratio for association with psychosis in the literature. A higher PERS was significantly associated with conversion to psychosis in young, familial high-risk subjects (OR=1.97, p=0.009). A model combining the PERS and clinical predictors had a sensitivity of 27% and specificity of 96%. An aggregate index of environmental risk may help predict conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Drugs use in pregnancy in the Valencia Region and the risk of congenital anomalies].

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Cavero-Carbonell, Clara; Gimeno-Martos, Silvia; Páramo-Rodríguez, Lucía; Rabanaque-Hernández, María José; Martos-Jiménez, Carmen; Zurriaga, Óscar

2017-09-01

Despite the potential risks of drug use during pregnancy, consumption has increased in recent decades. To identify the risk of congenital anomalies (CA) associated with the use of drugs in primary care in pregnant women residents in the Valencia Region. A case-control study, considering a case as a less than one year old live birth in 2009-2010, diagnosed with a CA and resident in the Valencia Region, obtained from the CA population-based registry. Controls were selected from the Metabolic Disease Registry, and the drugs prescribed and dispensed from the Integral Management of Pharmaceutical Services. Crude odds ratio (OR) was calculated with its 95% confidence intervals and adjusted OR was calculated using logistic regression. A total of 1,913 cases and 3,826 controls were identified. The most frequently used drug groups were those acting on the musculoskeletal, nervous and respiratory systems, on the blood and blood forming organs, and anti-infection drugs. The most common drugs used were ibuprofen, dexketoprofen, paracetamol, amoxicillin, ferrous sulphate, and a combination of folic acid. A significantly increased risk of CA was identified for drugs acting on the musculoskeletal system (adjusted OR 1.14 [95% confidence interval 1.02-1.28]). A significantly decreased risk was observed for drugs acting on the blood and blood forming organs (adjusted OR 0.87 [95% confidence interval 0.78-0.98]). Associations between drugs and CA in pregnant women resident in the Valencia Region have been identified for drugs that act as risk factors of CA, and for drugs that act as protective factors of CA. Copyright © 2016 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

White rice consumption and risk of esophageal cancer in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, northwest China: a case-control study

OpenAIRE

Tang, Li; Xu, Fenglian; Zhang, Taotao; Lei, Jun; Binns, Colin W.; Lee, Andy H.

2015-01-01

This study investigated the association between white rice consumption and the risk of esophageal cancer in remote northwest China, where the cancer incidence is known to be high. A case-control study was conducted during 2008?2009 in Urumqi and Shihezi, Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China. Participants were 359 incident esophageal cancer patients and 380 hospital-based controls. Information on habitual white rice consumption was obtained by personal interview using a validated semi-qu...

Prevalence of intestinal parasitic infections and associated risk factors among schoolchildren in the Plateau Central and Centre-Ouest regions of Burkina Faso.

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Erismann, Séverine; Diagbouga, Serge; Odermatt, Peter; Knoblauch, Astrid M; Gerold, Jana; Shrestha, Akina; Grissoum, Tarnagda; Kaboré, Aminata; Schindler, Christian; Utzinger, Jürg; Cissé, Guéladio

2016-10-18

Unsafe drinking water, unimproved sanitation and lack of hygiene pose health risks, particularly to children in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to assess the prevalence and risk factors of intestinal parasitic infections in school-aged children in two regions of Burkina Faso. A cross-sectional survey was carried out in February 2015 with 385 children aged 8-14 years from eight randomly selected schools in the Plateau Central and Centre-Ouest regions of Burkina Faso. Stool samples were subjected to the Kato-Katz and a formalin-ether concentration method for the diagnosis of helminths and intestinal protozoa infections. Urine samples were examined with a urine filtration technique for Schistosoma haematobium eggs. Water samples from community sources (n = 37), children's households (n = 95) and children's drinking water cups (n = 113) were analysed for contamination with coliform bacteria and faecal streptococci. Data on individual and family-level risk factors were obtained using a questionnaire. Mixed logistic regression models were employed to determine factors associated with intestinal parasitic infections in schoolchildren. Intestinal parasitic infections were highly prevalent; 84.7 % of the children harboured intestinal protozoa, while helminth infections were diagnosed in 10.7 % of the children. We found significantly lower odds of pathogenic intestinal protozoa infection (Entamoeba histolytica/E. dispar and Giardia intestinalis) among children from the Plateau Central, compared to the Centre-Ouest region (P parasitic infections in children. Intestinal protozoa but not helminths were highly prevalent among schoolchildren in randomly selected schools in two regions of Burkina Faso. Our findings call for specific public health measures tailored to school-aged children and rural communities in this part of Burkina Faso. It will be interesting to assess the effect of water, sanitation and hygiene interventions on the

Correlation between high-risk pregnancy and developmental delay ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: The future development of children is considered more than ever now due to the advances in medical knowledge and thus the increase in survival rates of high-risk infants. This study investigated the correlation between high-risk pregnancy and developmental delay in children aged 4- 60 months. Methods: ...

The carcinogenic risks of low-LET and high-LET ionizing radiations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fabrikant, J.I.

1991-08-01

This report presents a discussion on risk from ionizing radiations to human populations. Important new information on human beings has come mainly from further follow-up of existing epidemiological studies, notably the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and the ankylosing spondylitis patients; from new epidemiological surveys, such as the patients treated for cancer of the uterine cervix; and from combined surveys, including workers exposed in underground mines. Since the numerous and complex differences among the different study populations introduce factors that influence the risk estimates derived in ways that are not completely understood, it is not clear how to combine the different risk estimates obtained. These factors involve complex biological and physical variables distributed over time. Because such carcinogenic effects occur too infrequently to be demonstrated at low doses, the risks of low-dose radiation can be estimated only by interpolation from observations at high doses on the basis of theoretical concepts, mathematical models and available empirical evidence, primarily the epidemiological surveys of large populations exposed to ionizing radiation. In spite of a considerable amount of research, only recently has there has been efforts to apply the extensive laboratory data in animals to define the dose-incidence relationship in the low dose region. There simply are insufficient data in the epidemiological studies of large human populations to estimate risk coefficients directly from exposure to low doses. The risk estimates for the carcinogenic effects of radiation have been, in the past, somewhat low and reassessment of the numerical values is now necessary

Analysis of risk factors for persistent infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus.

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Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui

2017-06-03

This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the

[Risk Assessment of Heavy Metal Contamination in Farmland Soil in Du'an Autonomous County of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China].

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Wu, Yang; Yang, Jun; Zhou, Xiao-yong; Lei, Mei; Gao, Ding; Qiao, Peng-wei; Du, Guo-dong

2015-08-01

For a comprehensive understanding of the pollution characteristics and ecological risk of heavy metals of farmland soil in Du'an Autonomous County of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China, this study evaluated the cadmium (Cd), arsenic (As), nickel (Ni), zinc (Zn), chromium (Cr), antimony (Sb), copper (Cu) and lead ( Pb) pollution situation using the single factor index, the Nemerow pollution index and the Hakanson ecological risk index. The results showed that heavy-metal pollution of farmland soil in Du'an County was serious. 74.6% of the soil samples had heavy metals concentrations higher than the Grade II of National Soil Environmental Quality Standard (GB 15618-1995). The over standard rates of Cd, As, Ni, Zn, Cr, Sb, Cu, Pb were 70.6%, 42.9%, 34.9%, 19.8%, 19.6%, 2.94%, 1.59%, 0.79%, respectively. Cd and As were the main contaminants in Du'an County, the pollution was far more serious than those of the national and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. In terms of the ecological risk, heavy metals of farmland soil in Du'an County showed a "middle" ecological risk, with Cd accounting for 88% of the total ecological risk. The north-west of Jiudu Town and the zone between Bao'an Town and Dongmiao Town were two areas with high ecological risk in Du'an County. The contamination of farmland soils in Du'an County was caused by two main sources, whereas the pollution of As and Sb of farmland soils near Diaojiang River was mainly caused by the upstream mining industry.

High seasonal variation in entomologic inoculation rates in Eritrea, a semi-arid region of unstable malaria in Africa.

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Shililu, Josephat; Ghebremeskel, Tewolde; Mengistu, Solomon; Fekadu, Helen; Zerom, Mehari; Mbogo, Charles; Githure, John; Novak, Robert; Brantly, Eugene; Beier, John C

2003-12-01

Entomologic studies were conducted in eight villages to investigate the patterns of malaria transmission in different ecologic zones in Eritrea. Mosquito collections were conducted for 24 months between September 1999 and January 2002. The biting rates of Anopheles arabiensis were highly seasonal, with activity concentrated in the wet season between June and October in the highlands and western lowlands, and between December and March in the coastal region. The biting rates in the western lowlands were twice as high as in the western escarpment and 20 times higher than in the coastal region. Sporozoite rates were not significantly different among villages. The risk of infection ranged from zero on the coast to 70.6 infective bites per year in the western lowlands. The number of days it would take for an individual to receive an infective bite from an infected An. arabiensis was variable among villages (range = 2.8-203.1 days). The data revealed the presence of only one main malaria transmission period between July and October for the highlands and western lowlands. Peak inoculation rates were recorded in August and September (range = 0.29-43.6 infective bits/person/month) at all sites over the two-year period. The annual entomologic inoculation rates (EIRs) varied greatly depending on year. The EIR profiles indicated that the risk of exposure to infected mosquitoes is highly heterogeneous and seasonal, with high inoculation rates during the rainy season, and with little or no transmission during the dry season. This study demonstrates the need to generate spatial and temporal data on transmission intensity on smaller scales to guide targeted control of malaria operations in semi-arid regions. Furthermore, EIR estimates derived in the present study provide a means of quantifying levels of exposure to infected mosquitoes in different regions of the country and could be important for evaluating the efficacy of vector control measures, since Eritrea has made

Region-dependent hamstrings activity in Nordic hamstring exercise and stiff-leg deadlift defined with high-density electromyography.

Science.gov (United States)

Hegyi, A; Péter, A; Finni, T; Cronin, N J

2018-03-01

Recent studies suggest region-specific metabolic activity in hamstring muscles during injury prevention exercises, but the neural representation of this phenomenon is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine whether regional differences are evident in the activity of biceps femoris long head (BFlh) and semitendinosus (ST) muscles during two common injury prevention exercises. Twelve male participants without a history of hamstring injury performed the Nordic hamstring exercise (NHE) and stiff-leg deadlift (SDL) while BFlh and ST activities were recorded with high-density electromyography (HD-EMG). Normalized activity was calculated from the distal, middle, and proximal regions in the eccentric phase of each exercise. In NHE, ST overall activity was substantially higher than in BFlh (d = 1.06 ± 0.45), compared to trivial differences between muscles in SDL (d = 0.19 ± 0.34). Regional differences were found in NHE for both muscles, with different proximal-distal patterns: The distal region showed the lowest activity level in ST (regional differences, d range = 0.55-1.41) but the highest activity level in BFlh (regional differences, d range = 0.38-1.25). In SDL, regional differences were smaller in both muscles (d range = 0.29-0.67 and 0.16-0.63 in ST and BFlh, respectively) than in NHE. The use of HD-EMG in hamstrings revealed heterogeneous hamstrings activity during typical injury prevention exercises. High-density EMG might be useful in future studies to provide a comprehensive overview of hamstring muscle activity in other exercises and high-injury risk tasks. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Very High Risk Prostate Cancer – a Contemporary Update

Science.gov (United States)

Mano, Roy; Eastham, James; Yossepowitch, Ofer

2017-01-01

Background Treatment of high-risk prostate cancer has evolved considerably over the past two decades, yet patients with very high-risk features may still experience poor outcome despite aggressive therapy. We review the contemporary literature focusing on current definitions, role of modern imaging and treatment alternatives in very high-risk prostate cancer. Methods We searched the MEDLINE database for all clinical trials or practice guidelines published in English between 2000 – 2016 with the following search terms: ‘prostatic neoplasms’ (MeSH Terms) AND (‘high risk’ (keyword) OR ‘locally advanced’ (keyword) OR ‘node positive’ (keyword)). Abstracts pertaining to very high-risk prostate cancer were evaluated and 40 pertinent studies served as the basis for this review. Results The term ‘very’ high-risk prostate cancer remains ill defined. The EAU and NCCN guidelines provide the only available definitions, categorizing those with clinical stage T3-4 or minimal nodal involvement as very-high risk irrespective of PSA level or biopsy Gleason score. Modern imaging with mpMRI and PET-PSMA scans plays a role in pretreatment assessment. Local definitive therapy by external beam radiation combined with androgen deprivation is supported by several randomized clinical trials whereas the role of surgery in the very high-risk setting combined with adjuvant radiation/ androgen deprivation therapy is emerging. Growing evidence suggest neoadjuvant taxane based chemotherapy in the context of a multimodal approach may be beneficial. Conclusions Men with very high-risk tumors may benefit from local definitive treatment in the setting of a multimodal regimen, offering local control and possibly cure in well selected patients. Further studies are necessary to better characterize the ‘very’ high-risk category and determine the optimal therapy for the individual patient. PMID:27618950

An approach for a complex assessment of the geo-ecological risk from natural disasters in a geographic region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zlateva, Plamena; Stoyanov, Krasimir

2009-01-01

The paper proposes an approach for a complex assessment of the geo-ecological risk of a certain geographic region on the basis of quantitative and qualitative datum about the potential natural disasters. A fuzzy logic model is designed. The type of the threats, consequences and interdependencies between infrastructure objects are taken into account. The geographic region is considered as a complex system of interconnected and mutually influencing elements. The expected damages are directly and/or indirectly connected with life quality deterioration. Keywords: Risk, Geo-ecological risk, Damages, Threats, Vulnerabilities, Natural disasters

Increased risk of flooding on the coast of Alicante (Region of Valencia, Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Olcina Cantos

2010-11-01

Full Text Available In the past two decades, episodes of flooding on the coast of Alicante (Spain have led to substantial losses in human life in economic terms. With increased exposure to these phenomena comes also increased vulnerability. Given the various effects of flooding in areas of similar exposure, differences in vulnerability across regions at risk need to be analysed also in terms of the socioeconomic factors of the groups of society that may be affected, and of their perception of risk. This paper studies the increased risk of flooding in three locations on the Alicante coast as a result of urban occupation of areas subject to this hazard. The consequences of the most recent episodes in this area are analysed and a risk assessment, using survey-based research in the affected areas, is performed.

The profile of high-risk pregnancy in El-Mansoura city.

Science.gov (United States)

Yassin, Shadia A T; Gamal El-Deen, Amany A; Emam, Mohamed A; Omer, Abeer K F

2005-01-01

Proper screening techniques should be used for all pregnant women attending antenatal clinics to pick up the factors that qualify the pregnant women for a risky pregnancy. High-risk pregnancy identification is a challenging work. This study aimed to describe the profile of high-risk pregnancy in El-Mansoura city. The study was conducted on 750 pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in three hospitals in El-Mansoura city, where 250 women were chosen from each setting. A modified version of Morrison and Olsen (1979) high risk scoring inventory tool was used to collect the socioeconomic, biological, medical, reproductive and current pregnancy risk factors in the study sample. It also assessed the risk level whether low, moderate or high. The results revealed that among all women, 63.8% of the sample were at a high-risk, while 25.0 % of them were at a moderate-risk and only 11.2% were at low-risk. About 70.0% of the high-risk pregnant women were in their third trimester followed by 23.0% in the second trimester and only 7.1% were in the first trimester. About 5.9% of the women were at a high-risk because of polluted housing condition, 1.9% because of heart diseases Class capital I, Ukrainian or II, 5.2% because of diabetes mellitus, 4.2% because of hypertension and 14.9% because of previous cesarean section. On the other hand 14.8% women were at moderate risk because of their illiteracy, 29.2% of them for being short, 14.7%, 10.6% of them because of being teenagers or over 35 years of age, respectively, 12.6% of because they had a history of gestational diabetes and 32.8%of them because of anemia, 23.2% because urinary tract infection, 16.9% because of albuminuria, and 12.0% because of glucoseuria. Finally identifying the profile of high -risk pregnancy women is mandatory.

Contamination risk and drinking water protection for a large-scale managed aquifer recharge site in a semi-arid karst region, Jordan

Science.gov (United States)

Xanke, Julian; Liesch, Tanja; Goeppert, Nadine; Klinger, Jochen; Gassen, Niklas; Goldscheider, Nico

2017-09-01

Karst aquifers in semi-arid regions are particularly threatened by surface contamination, especially during winter seasons when extremely variable rainfall of high intensities prevails. An additional challenge is posed when managed recharge of storm water is applied, since karst aquifers display a high spatial variability of hydraulic properties. In these cases, adapted protection concepts are required to address the interaction of surface water and groundwater. In this study a combined protection approach for the surface catchment of the managed aquifer recharge site at the Wala reservoir in Jordan and the downstream Hidan wellfield, which are both subject to frequent bacteriological contamination, is developed. The variability of groundwater quality was evaluated by correlating contamination events to rainfall, and to recharge from the reservoir. Both trigger increased wadi flow downstream of the reservoir by surface runoff generation and groundwater seepage, respectively. A tracer test verified the major pathway of the surface flow into the underground by infiltrating from pools along Wadi Wala. An intrinsic karst vulnerability and risk map was adapted to the regional characteristics and developed to account for the catchment separation by the Wala Dam and the interaction of surface water and groundwater. Implementation of the proposed protection zones for the wellfield and the reservoir is highly recommended, since the results suggest an extreme contamination risk resulting from livestock farming, arable agriculture and human occupation along the wadi. The applied methods can be transferred to other managed aquifer recharge sites in similar karstic environments of semi-arid regions.

Navigation safety and risk assessment challenges in the High North

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marchenko, N.A.; Borch, O.J.; Andreassen, N.

2017-01-01

marine accidents. Therefore, in this study a mostly qualitative analysis and expert judgement is the basis for the risk assessments. Implications for the emergency preparedness system of the region are discussed. The consequences of incidents depend on the incident type, scale and location,....... In this paper we look into the risks of accidents in the Atlantic Arctic based on previous ship accidents and the changes in maritime activity. The risk has to be assessed to ensure a proper level of response in emergency situations. As accidents are rare, there are limited statistics available for Arctic...

Establishing a Program for Individuals at High Risk for Breast Cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Cadiz, Fernando; Kuerer, Henry M.; Puga, Julio; Camacho, Jamile; Cunill, Eduardo; Arun, Banu

2013-01-01

Our need to create a program for individuals at high risk for breast cancer development led us to research the available data on such programs. In this paper, we summarize our findings and our thinking process as we developed our own program. Breast cancer incidence is increasing worldwide. Even though there are known risk factors for breast cancer development, approximately 60% of patients with breast cancer have no known risk factor, although this situation will probably change with further research, especially in genetics. For patients with risk factors based on personal or family history, different models are available for assessing and quantifying risk. Assignment of risk levels permits tailored screening and risk reduction strategies. Potential benefits of specialized programs for women with high breast cancer risk include more cost -effective interventions as a result of patient stratification on the basis of risk; generation of valuable data to advance science; and differentiation of breast programs from other breast cancer units, which can result in increased revenue that can be directed to further improvements in patient care. Guidelines for care of patients at high risk for breast cancer are available from various groups. However, running a high-risk breast program involves much more than applying a guideline. Each high-risk program needs to be designed by its institution with consideration of local resources and country legislation, especially related to genetic issues. Development of a successful high-risk program includes identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats; developing a promotion plan; choosing a risk assessment tool; defining “high risk”; and planning screening and risk reduction strategies for the specific population served by the program. The information in this article may be useful for other institutions considering creation of programs for patients with high breast cancer risk. PMID:23833688

Drug response prediction in high-risk multiple myeloma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vangsted, A J; Helm-Petersen, S; Cowland, J B

2018-01-01

from high-risk patients by GEP70 at diagnosis from Total Therapy 2 and 3A to predict the response by the DRP score of drugs used in the treatment of myeloma patients. The DRP score stratified patients further. High-risk myeloma with a predicted sensitivity to melphalan by the DRP score had a prolonged...

Seroepidemiological Study of Brucellosis in High Risk Groups in Boyerahmad 1384

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

AM Khosravani

2007-01-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Introduction & Objective: Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease that may have a major public health and economic impact in most countries. The disease appears as a Malt fever in humans and abortion in animals. This study was designed to determine the serologic titer of Brucella in high risk and non high risk people in Boyerahmad. Materials & Methods: A retrospective seroepidemiological study was performed on samples collected from 604 high risk and non high risk people using Rose Bengol test, tube standard test as a rapid test and 2 mercaptoethanol (2ME and comb's wright as a confirmatory test. The data collected were analyzed by X2 test via SPSS. Results: Seroprevalence of Brucellosis in high risk people appeared to be high in the Rose Bengal and tube standard test (TST 6.62 at titer ≥1/40 whereas for non high risk it was 0%. Confirmation test in high risk people was shown with 2ME in four people. Conclusion: Brucellosis is a major cause of disease in high risk people which can be due to direct or indirect contact with diary products of the related animals.

Evaluation of organ dose and estimation of risk due to the abdominal region radiography in Indian adults

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumaresan, M.; Chaubey, Ajay; Kantharia, Surita; Karira, V.; Kumar, Rajesh; Biju, K.; Rao, B.S.

2006-01-01

Organ dose, risk of carcinogenesis and genetic effect due to the abdominal region radiography in Indian adult with the help of Monte-Carlo MCNP code by measuring the entrance skin dose by LiF: Mg, Cu, P TL phosphor and the risk coefficients provided by ICRP 60 were estimated. The entrance skin dose for abdominal region radiography was ranges from 2.75 mSv to 18.88 mSv while average entrance skin dose was 8.3 mSv. The bladder, testes and ovary are the important organ those are getting higher dose. The maximum dose for testes, ovary and bladder is 5.37 mSv, 1.45 mSv and 4.74 mSv respectively. The frequency of occurrence of fatal cancers and serious genetic disorders as a consequence of abdominal region radiography ranges from 0.1 to 38.8 risk/10 6 of fatal cancer. Although the estimated risks are small but cannot be neglected. It is important to avoid unnecessary repetitions and also to carry out proper quality assurance tests on the equipment and in the long run it will help reduce the risks and maximize the benefits of radiodiagnosis. These studies may lead to setting up of national reference levels for the diagnostic procedures India. (author)

Network Connectedness, Sense of Community, and Risk Perception of Climate Change Professionals in the Pacific Islands Region

Science.gov (United States)

Corlew, L. K.; Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.

2013-12-01

The Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (Pacific RISA) Program conducted social network analysis research of climate change professionals (broadly defined) who are from or work in Hawaii and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) region. This study is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC) to address an identified need for a resource that quantifies the region's collaborative network of climate change professionals, and that supports the further development of cross-regional and inter-sectoral collaborations for future research and adaptation activities. A survey was distributed to nearly 1,200 people who are from and/or work in climate change related fields in the region. The Part One Survey questions (not confidential) created a preferential attachment network by listing major players in Hawaii and the USAPI, with additional open fields to identify important contacts in the greater professional network. Participants (n=340) identified 975 network contacts and frequency of communications (weekly, monthly, seasonally, yearly, at least once ever). Part Two Survey questions (confidential, n=302) explored climate change risk perceptions, Psychological Sense of Community (PSOC), sense of control over climate change impacts, sense of responsibility to act, policy beliefs and preferences regarding climate change actions, concern and optimism scales about specific impacts, and demographic information. Graphical representations of the professional network are being developed for release in September 2013 as a free online tool to promote and assist collaboration building among climate professionals in the region. The graphs are partitioned according to network 'hubs' (high centrality), participant location, and profession to clearly identify network strengths and opportunities for future collaborations across spatial and professional boundaries. For additional

Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

People at High Risk of Developing Flu-Related Complications

Science.gov (United States)

... Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other People at High Risk of Developing Flu–Related Complications ... related complications if they get sick with influenza. People at High Risk for Developing Flu-Related Complications ...

Diagnostic accuracy of high-definition CT coronary angiography in high-risk patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iyengar, S.S.; Morgan-Hughes, G.; Ukoumunne, O.; Clayton, B.; Davies, E.J.; Nikolaou, V.; Hyde, C.J.; Shore, A.C.; Roobottom, C.A.

2016-01-01

Aim: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) using a combination of high-definition CT (HD-CTCA) and high level of reader experience, with invasive coronary angiography (ICA) as the reference standard, in high-risk patients for the investigation of coronary artery disease (CAD). Materials and methods: Three hundred high-risk patients underwent HD-CTCA and ICA. Independent experts evaluated the images for the presence of significant CAD, defined primarily as the presence of moderate (≥50%) stenosis and secondarily as the presence of severe (≥70%) stenosis in at least one coronary segment, in a blinded fashion. HD-CTCA was compared to ICA as the reference standard. Results: No patients were excluded. Two hundred and six patients (69%) had moderate and 178 (59%) had severe stenosis in at least one vessel at ICA. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 97.1%, 97.9%, 99% and 93.9% for moderate stenosis, and 98.9%, 93.4%, 95.7% and 98.3%, for severe stenosis, on a per-patient basis. Conclusion: The combination of HD-CTCA and experienced readers applied to a high-risk population, results in high diagnostic accuracy comparable to ICA. Modern generation CT systems in experienced hands might be considered for an expanded role. - Highlights: • Diagnostic accuracy of High-Definition CT Angiography (HD-CTCA) has been assessed. • Invasive Coronary angiography (ICA) is the reference standard. • Diagnostic accuracy of HD-CTCA is comparable to ICA. • Diagnostic accuracy is not affected by coronary calcium or stents. • HD-CTCA provides a non-invasive alternative in high-risk patients.

Characterizing and reaching high-risk drinkers using audience segmentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Moss, Howard B; Kirby, Susan D; Donodeo, Fred

2009-08-01

-savvy singles and couples living in fashionable neighborhoods on the urban fringe." Almost 65% of Cyber Millenials households are found in the Pacific and Middle Atlantic regions of the United States. Additional consumer behaviors of the Cyber Millenials and other segments are also described. Audience segmentation can assist in identifying and describing target audience segments, as well as identifying places where segments congregate on- or offline. This information can be helpful for recruiting subjects for alcohol prevention research as well as planning health promotion campaigns. Through commercial data about high-risk drinkers as "consumers," planners can develop interventions that have heightened salience in terms of opportunities, perceptions, and motivations, and have better media channel identification.

Ecological risk assessment for the terrestrial ecosystem under chronic radioactive pollution - Ecological risk assessment for the biota on regional radioactive waste storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavrentyeva, G.V.; Synzynys, B.I.; Shoshina, R.R.; Mirzeabasov, O.A. [Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering, branch of the National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Department of Ecology, Studgorodok,1, 249040 Obninsk, Kaluga region (Russian Federation)

2014-07-01

Now the methods of ecological regulation of a radiation factor from risk assessment are developed poorly. The paper attempts to assess and forecast the terrestrial ecosystem conditions under chronic ionizing radiation by calculating the critical loads. The paper is aimed at developing a methodology to assess the ecological risk for a terrestrial ecosystem under chronic radioactive pollution in a biotope of a regional radioactive waste storage. Objects and Methods: Biotope monitoring of a radioactive waste storage makes clear that the radioecological situation in this territory is stipulated by technogenic {sup 90}Sr found in soil, ground water and biota. Terrestrial mollusks of a shrubby Snail type (Bradybaena fruticum) were chosen as reference species due to their activity to accumulate {sup 90}Sr in shells and the number of colony-forming soil units (CFU) as reference indices. The number of CFU was determined by inoculation of solid medium. Soil and mollusk samples have been collected at most representative sites identified in the previous studies. To assess {sup 90}Sr content in the samples collected, radiochemical separation was used with further radionuclide activity measurements by a 'BETA-01C' scintillation beta-ray spectrometer according to a standard procedure of {sup 90}Sr content assessment from beta-radiation of its daughter radionuclide {sup 90}Y. Ecological risk was calculated from analyzed critical loads using a 'dose-effect' dependence. Statistical data processing was realized with Excell 2007 and R software programs [R Development Core Team, 2010]. The software R was also used for GIS creation. Results and Discussion: A methodology of ecological risk assessment for the terrestrial ecosystem under chronic radioactive pollution of a biotope near a regional radioactive waste storage has been developed in terms of the critical environmental loads analyzed. It consists of five stages: determination of effect indicators and assessment

High risk Merkel cell carcinoma of the skin treated with synchronous carboplatin/etoposide and radiation: a trans-Tasman radiation oncology group study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poulsen, M.G.; Rischin, D.; Ainslie, J.; Walpole, E.; Harvey, J.; Mackintosh, J.; Hamilton, C.; Tripcony, L.

2003-01-01

The effectiveness of synchronous carboplatin, etoposide and radiation therapy was prospectively assessed in a group of patients with high risk Merkel Cell Carcinoma of the skin. Patients were eligible if they had disease localised to the primary site and nodes and were required to have at least one of the following high risk features: recurrence after initial therapy, involved nodes, primary size greater than 1 cm, gross residual disease after surgery or occult primary with nodes. Radiation was delivered to the primary site and nodes to a dose of 50 Gy in 25 fractions over 5 weeks and synchronous carboplatin (AUC 4.5) and etoposide 80 mg/M2 intravenously days 1-3 was given in weeks 1, 4, 7 and 10. The median age of the group was 67 [43-86] years and there were 39 males and 14 females. Involved nodes (stageII) were present in 33 (62%) cases. The sites involved in decreasing order were head and neck (22), occult primary (13), upper limb (8), lower limb (8) and trunk (2). Fifty-three patients were entered between 1996 and 2001.The median potential follow up was 48 months. There were no treatment related deaths. The 3 year overall survival, loco-regional control and distant control were 76%, 75% and 76% respectively. Factors that were predictive for local control and survival were tumour site and the presence of nodes. Multivariate analysis indicated that the major factor influencing survival was the presence of nodes. However this was not a significant factor in loco-regional control. High levels of loco-regional control and survival have been achieved with the addition of chemotherapy to radiation treatment for high risk Merkel cell carcinoma of skin. The role of chemo-radiotherapy for high risk MCC warrants further investigation

Concomitant Radiotherapy and Chemotherapy for High-Risk Nonmelanoma Skin Carcinomas of the Head and Neck

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smith Apisarnthanarax

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Background. To report on the use and feasibility of a multimodality approach using concomitant radiotherapy and chemotherapy in patients with high-risk nonmelanoma skin carcinoma (NMSC of the head and neck. Methods. Records of patients with NMSC of the head and neck who received concomitant CRT at the University of North Carolina between 2001 and 2007 were reviewed. Results. Fifteen identified patients had at least one of the following high-risk factors: T4 disease (93%, unresectability (60%, regional nodal involvement (40%, and/or recurrence (47%. Ten patients were treated in the definitive setting and five in the postoperative setting. Platinum based chemotherapy was given in 14 (93% patients. Ten of fifteen (67% patients completed all planned chemotherapy treatments, and thirteen patients (87% completed at least 80% of planned chemotherapy. Mild radiation dermatitis occurred in all patients and reached grade 3 in 13% of patients. No patients experienced grade 4 or 5 toxicity. With a median followup of 31 months in surviving patients, the 2-year actuarial locoregional control and relapse-free survival were 79% and 49%, respectively. Conclusions. Definitive or postoperative chemoradiotherapy for patients with locally advanced or regionally metastasized NMSC of the head and neck appears feasible with acceptable toxicities and favorable locoregional control.

A novel polymorphic repeat in the upstream regulatory region of the estrogen-induced gene EIG121 is not associated with the risk of developing breast or endometrial cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Bolton, Katherine A; Holliday, Elizabeth G; Attia, John; Bowden, Nikola A; Avery-Kiejda, Kelly A; Scott, Rodney J

2016-05-26

The estrogen-induced gene 121 (EIG121) has been associated with breast and endometrial cancers, but its mechanism of action remains unknown. In a genome-wide search for tandem repeats, we found that EIG121 contains a short tandem repeat (STR) in its upstream regulatory region which has the potential to alter gene expression. The presence of this STR has not previously been analysed in relation to breast or endometrial cancer risk. In this study, the lengths of this STR were determined by PCR, fragment analysis and sequencing using DNA from 223 breast cancer patients, 204 endometrial cancer patients and 220 healthy controls to determine if they were associated with the risk of developing breast or endometrial cancer. We found this repeat to be highly variable with the number of copies of the AG motif ranging from 27 to 72 and having a bimodal distribution. No statistically significant association was identified between the length of this STR and the risk of developing breast or endometrial cancer or age at diagnosis. The STR in the upstream regulatory region of EIG121 is highly polymorphic, but is not associated with the risk of developing breast or endometrial cancer in the cohorts analysed here. While this polymorphic STR in the regulatory region of EIG121 appears to have no impact on the risk of developing breast or endometrial cancer, its association with disease recurrence or overall survival remains to be determined.

The clinical profile of high-risk mentally disordered offenders.

Science.gov (United States)

Yiend, Jenny; Freestone, Mark; Vazquez-Montes, Maria; Holland, Josephine; Burns, Tom

2013-07-01

High-risk mentally disordered offenders present a diverse array of clinical characteristics. To contain and effectively treat this heterogeneous population requires a full understanding of the group's clinical profile. This study aimed to identify and validate clusters of clinically coherent profiles within one high-risk mentally disordered population in the UK. Latent class analysis (a statistical technique to identify clustering of variance from a set of categorical variables) was applied to 174 cases using clinical diagnostic information to identify the most parsimonious model of best fit. Validity analyses were performed. Three identified classes were a 'delinquent' group (n = 119) characterised by poor educational history, strong criminal careers and high recidivism risk; a 'primary psychopathy' group (n = 38) characterised by good educational profiles and homicide offences and an 'expressive psychopathy' group (n = 17) presenting the lowest risk and characterised by more special educational needs and sexual offences. Individuals classed as high-risk mentally disordered offenders can be loosely segregated into three discrete subtypes: 'delinquent', 'psychopathic' or 'expressive psychopathic', respectively. These groups represent different levels of risk to society and reflect differing treatment needs.

Carotid Stenting in Patients With High Risk Versus Standard Risk for Open Carotid Endarterectomy (REAL-1 Trial).

Science.gov (United States)

De Haro, Joaquin; Michel, Ignacio; Bleda, Silvia; Cañibano, Cristina; Acin, Francisco

2017-07-15

Carotid stenting (CAS) has been mainly offered to those patients considered at "high risk" for open carotid endarterectomy based on available data from large randomized clinical trials. However, several recent studies have called medical "high risk" into question for CAS indication. The REAL-1 trial evaluated the safety and perioperative and long-term effectiveness in patients with significant carotid artery stenosis with "high-risk" criteria treated with CAS and proximal protection device (MOMA) compared with those with standard surgical-risk features. This nonrandomized double-arm registry included 125 patients (40% symptomatic), 71 (56%) with "standard-risk" and 54 (44%) with "high-risk" criteria. The primary end point was the cumulative incidence of any major adverse event, a composite of stroke, myocardial infarction, and death within 30 days after the intervention or ipsilateral stroke after 30 days and up to 4 years. There was no significant difference in primary end point rate at 30 days between patients at "standard risk" and those with "high risk" (1.4% vs 1.9% respectively; hazard ratio for "standard risk" 1.1; 95% CI 0.8 to 1.2, p = 0.77) nor estimated 4-year rate of ipsilateral stroke (1.3% vs 1.8%; hazard ratio for "standard risk" 1.05, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.14, p = 0.9). In conclusion, 4-year postprocedure results demonstrated that CAS with proximal device (MOMA) is safe and effective for patients with and without "high-risk" for carotid endarterectomy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Checking the predictive accuracy of basic symptoms against ultra high-risk criteria and testing of a multivariable prediction model: Evidence from a prospective three-year observational study of persons at clinical high-risk for psychosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hengartner, M P; Heekeren, K; Dvorsky, D; Walitza, S; Rössler, W; Theodoridou, A

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to critically examine the prognostic validity of various clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria alone and in combination with additional clinical characteristics. A total of 188 CHR positive persons from the region of Zurich, Switzerland (mean age 20.5 years; 60.2% male), meeting ultra high-risk (UHR) and/or basic symptoms (BS) criteria, were followed over three years. The test battery included the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS), verbal IQ and many other screening tools. Conversion to psychosis was defined according to ICD-10 criteria for schizophrenia (F20) or brief psychotic disorder (F23). Altogether n=24 persons developed manifest psychosis within three years and according to Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, the projected conversion rate was 17.5%. The predictive accuracy of UHR was statistically significant but poor (area under the curve [AUC]=0.65, Pthinking of binary at-risk criteria is necessary in order to improve the prognosis of psychotic disorders. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Climate risk management information, sources and responses in a pastoral region in East Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anthony Egeru

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Pastoralists in East Africa face a range of stressors, climate variability and change being one of them. Effective climate risk management involves managing the full range of variability and balancing hazard management with efforts to capitalise on opportunity; climate risk management information is central in this process. In this study, pastoralists’ perceptions of climate change, climate risk management information types, sources and attendant responses in a pastoral region in East Africa are examined. Through a multi-stage sampling process, a total of 198 heads of households in three districts were selected and interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire. In addition, 29 focus group discussions and 10 key informant interviews were conducted to generate qualitative information to supplement survey data. Descriptive and thematic analysis were utilised in summarizing the data. Ninety-nine percent of the pastoralists noted that the climate had changed evidenced by high but erratic rainfall, occurrence of floods and variation in rainfall onset and cessation among other indicators. This change in climate had led to emergence of ‘new’ livestock and crop diseases, crop failure and low yields leading to frequent food shortages, water shortages, poor market access, and variation in pasture availability among other effects. Climate risk management information was received from multiple sources including; radio, diviners, community meetings, shrine elders, humanitarian agencies, and Uganda People’s defence forces (UPDF. Community meetings were however perceived as most accessible, reliable and dependable sources of information. Shifting livestock to dry season grazing and watering areas, selling firewood and charcoal, seeking for military escorts to grazing areas, purchasing veterinary drugs, shifting livestock to disease ‘free’ areas, and performing rituals (depending on the perceived risk constituted a set of responses undertaken in

Predicting reattendance at a high-risk breast cancer clinic.

Science.gov (United States)

Ormseth, Sarah R; Wellisch, David K; Aréchiga, Adam E; Draper, Taylor L

2015-10-01

The research about follow-up patterns of women attending high-risk breast-cancer clinics is sparse. This study sought to profile daughters of breast-cancer patients who are likely to return versus those unlikely to return for follow-up care in a high-risk clinic. Our investigation included 131 patients attending the UCLA Revlon Breast Center High Risk Clinic. Predictor variables included age, computed breast-cancer risk, participants' perceived personal risk, clinically significant depressive symptomatology (CES-D score ≥ 16), current level of anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory), and survival status of participants' mothers (survived or passed away from breast cancer). A greater likelihood of reattendance was associated with older age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.07, p = 0.004), computed breast-cancer risk (AOR = 1.10, p = 0.017), absence of depressive symptomatology (AOR = 0.25, p = 0.009), past psychiatric diagnosis (AOR = 3.14, p = 0.029), and maternal loss to breast cancer (AOR = 2.59, p = 0.034). Also, an interaction was found between mother's survival and perceived risk (p = 0.019), such that reattendance was associated with higher perceived risk among participants whose mothers survived (AOR = 1.04, p = 0.002), but not those whose mothers died (AOR = 0.99, p = 0.685). Furthermore, a nonlinear inverted "U" relationship was observed between state anxiety and reattendance (p = 0.037); participants with moderate anxiety were more likely to reattend than those with low or high anxiety levels. Demographic, medical, and psychosocial factors were found to be independently associated with reattendance to a high-risk breast-cancer clinic. Explication of the profiles of women who may or may not reattend may serve to inform the development and implementation of interventions to increase the likelihood of follow-up care.

Relationship between Background Parenchymal Enhancement on High-risk Screening MRI and Future Breast Cancer Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Grimm, Lars J; Saha, Ashirbani; Ghate, Sujata V; Kim, Connie; Soo, Mary Scott; Yoon, Sora C; Mazurowski, Maciej A

2018-03-27

To determine if background parenchymal enhancement (BPE) on screening breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in high-risk women correlates with future cancer. All screening breast MRIs (n = 1039) in high-risk women at our institution from August 1, 2004, to July 30, 2013, were identified. Sixty-one patients who subsequently developed breast cancer were matched 1:2 by age and high-risk indication with patients who did not develop breast cancer (n = 122). Five fellowship-trained breast radiologists independently recorded the BPE. The median reader BPE for each case was calculated and compared between the cancer and control cohorts. Cancer cohort patients were high-risk because of a history of radiation therapy (10%, 6 of 61), high-risk lesion (18%, 11 of 61), or breast cancer (30%, 18 of 61); BRCA mutation (18%, 11 of 61); or family history (25%, 15 of 61). Subsequent malignancies were invasive ductal carcinoma (64%, 39 of 61), ductal carcinoma in situ (30%, 18 of 61) and invasive lobular carcinoma (7%, 4of 61). BPE was significantly higher in the cancer cohort than in the control cohort (P = 0.01). Women with mild, moderate, or marked BPE were 2.5 times more likely to develop breast cancer than women with minimal BPE (odds ratio = 2.5, 95% confidence interval: 1.3-4.8, P = .005). There was fair interreader agreement (κ = 0.39). High-risk women with greater than minimal BPE at screening MRI have increased risk of future breast cancer. Copyright © 2018 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A High-resolution Reanalysis for the European CORDEX Region

Science.gov (United States)

Bentzien, Sabrina; Bollmeyer, Christoph; Crewell, Susanne; Friederichs, Petra; Hense, Andreas; Keller, Jan; Keune, Jessica; Kneifel, Stefan; Ohlwein, Christian; Pscheidt, Ieda; Redl, Stephanie; Steinke, Sandra

2014-05-01

A High-resolution Reanalysis for the European CORDEX Region Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. The work presented here focuses on the regional reanalysis for Europe with a domain matching the CORDEX-EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km). The COSMO reanalysis system comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO and is complemented by a special soil moisture analysis and boundary conditions given by ERA-interim data. The reanalysis data set currently covers 6 years (2007-2012). The evaluation of the reanalyses is done using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations. The development and evaluation of the COSMO-based reanalysis for the CORDEX-Euro domain can be seen as a preparation for joint European activities on the development of an ensemble system of regional reanalyses for Europe.

Lower Risk of Cancer in the Areas Inhabited by the German Minority in the Region of Opole, Poland.

Science.gov (United States)

Chawińska, Ewa; Tukiendorf, Andrzej; Miszczyk, Leszek

2015-01-01

The lower risk of cancer in the areas inhabited by the German minority in the region of Opole, Poland, at the turn of the 1980's and 1990's has been already reported. A reanalysis of the present-day data was conducted. All the cancer cases (at all sites combined) registered within the years 2008-2012 with data collected by the Regional Cancer Registry in Opole were analyzed in this study. To estimate the risk of cancer in different spatial contexts, such as trends, clusters, and levels, modern geostatistical tools were applied. A statistically significant reduction of the cancer risk was reported in administrative units with ≥ 10% of the German minority. Average decreases in relative risk of 13% in men and 16% in women were estimated. The geographical patterns of the estimates are illustrated. The observed differences in the risk of cancer between the ethnic groups (Germans and repatriates) confirm a historical trend of the disease in the region of Opole, Poland. Some genetic, nutritional, or cultural aspects together with economic issues may play a role in the specified spatial disease patterns. © 2015 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

Oral Microbiota and Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in a High-Risk Area of China

OpenAIRE

Chen, Xingdong; Winckler, Bj?rn; Lu, Ming; Cheng, Hongwei; Yuan, Ziyu; Yang, Yajun; Jin, Li; Ye, Weimin

2015-01-01

Poor oral health has been linked with an increased risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We investigated whether alteration of oral microbiota is associated with ESCC risk. Fasting saliva samples were collected from 87 incident and histopathologicallly diagnosed ESCC cases, 63 subjects with dysplasia and 85 healthy controls. All subjects were also interviewed with a questionnaire. V3-V4 region of 16S rRNA was amplified and sequenced by 454-pyrosequencing platform. Carriage of eac...

Animal Fascioliasis: Perspectives from high altitudinal regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Lyngdoh, Damanbha; Sharma, Sunil; Roy, Bishnupada; Tandon, Veena

2016-12-15

The parasitic flukes of the genus Fasciola (Platyhelminthes: Trematoda: Digenea) cause fascioliasis or liver-rot disease in ruminant livestock in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Classically, two species of Fasciola- F. hepatica and F. gigantica, are universally recognized as taxonomically valid species. Our survey studies on ovid and bovid animals including yak and mithun from high altitudinal mountainous regions in Northeast India revealed the occurrence of Fasciola gigantica and also Fasciola sp.- an intermediate form, at altitudes between 5000 and 14,085 feet above sea level (asl). Two morphotypes- F. hepatica - like and F. gigantica - like, of Fasciola species were reported from the high altitudinal areas of Northeast India; most of these locales constitute new-locality and first records for the occurrence of these liver flukes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of a High-Resolution Regional Reanalysis for Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Ohlwein, C.; Wahl, S.; Keller, J. D.; Bollmeyer, C.

2014-12-01

Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. The regional reanalysis for Europe matches the domain of the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km) and comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO complemented by a special soil moisture analysis with boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim data. The reanalysis data set covers 6 years (2007-2012) and is currently extended to 16 years. Extensive evaluation of the reanalysis is performed using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations indicating a better representation of small scale variability. Further, the evaluation shows an added value of the regional reanalysis with respect to the forcing ERA Interim reanalysis and compared to a pure high-resolution dynamical downscaling approach without data assimilation.

[High-grade pressure sores in frail older high-risk persons. A retrospective postmortem case-control-study].

Science.gov (United States)

Von Renteln-Kruse, W; Krause, T; Anders, J; Kühl, M; Heinemann, A; Püschel, K

2004-04-01

Some old persons at risk do develop, but others, at comparable risk, do not develop high-grade pressure sores. To evaluate potentially different risk factors, we performed a post mortem case-control study in old persons who developed high-grade pressure sores within six months until 14 days before death. Consecutive cases with pressure sores grade >/=3 and potential controls at comparably high risk for pressure sores were examined before cremation. After written informed consent had been obtained by the next relatives, all available nursing and medical records of the deceased were thoroughly evaluated. Cases and controls were matched according to age, gender, immobility, and cachexia.A total of 100 cases with 71 pressure sores grade 3 and 29 pressure sores grade 4 were compared to 100 controls with 27 pressure sores grade pressure sores in frail older high-risk persons. Sedative drug effects and impaired patient compliance with preventive and therapeutic measures may also be associated with the development of high-grade pressure sores in old persons at high risk.

Shared susceptibility loci at 2q33 region for lung and esophageal cancers in high-incidence areas of esophageal cancer in northern China.

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Xue Ke Zhao

Full Text Available Cancers from lung and esophagus are the leading causes of cancer-related deaths in China and share many similarities in terms of histological type, risk factors and genetic variants. Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS in Chinese esophageal cancer patients have demonstrated six high-risk candidate single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs. Thus, the present study aimed to determine the risk of these SNPs predisposing to lung cancer in Chinese population.A total of 1170 lung cancer patients and 1530 normal subjects were enrolled in this study from high-incidence areas for esophageal cancer in Henan, northern China. Five milliliters of blood were collected from all subjects for genotyping. Genotyping of 20 high-risk SNP loci identified from genome-wide association studies (GWAS on esophageal, lung and gastric cancers was performed using TaqMan allelic discrimination assays. Polymorphisms were examined for deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE using Х2 test. Bonferroni correction was performed to correct the statistical significance of 20 SNPs with the risk of lung cancer. The Pearson's Х2 test was used to compare the distributions of gender, TNM stage, histopathological type, smoking and family history by lung susceptibility genotypes. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were carried out to evaluate the associations between genetic variants and overall survival.Four of the 20 SNPs identified as high-risk SNPs in Chinese esophageal cancer showed increased risk for Chinese lung cancer, which included rs3769823 (OR = 1.26; 95% CI = 1.107-1.509; P = 0.02, rs10931936 (OR = 1.283; 95% CI = 1.100-1.495; P = 0.04, rs2244438 (OR = 1.294; 95% CI = 1.098-1.525; P = 0.04 and rs13016963 (OR = 1.268; 95% CI = 1.089-1.447; P = 0.04. All these SNPs were located at 2q33 region harboringgenes of CASP8, ALS2CR12 and TRAK2. However, none of these susceptibility SNPs was observed to be significantly associated with gender, TNM stage

Shared susceptibility loci at 2q33 region for lung and esophageal cancers in high-incidence areas of esophageal cancer in northern China.

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Zhao, Xue Ke; Mao, Yi Min; Meng, Hui; Song, Xin; Hu, Shou Jia; Lv, Shuang; Cheng, Rang; Zhang, Tang Juan; Han, Xue Na; Ren, Jing Li; Qi, Yi Jun; Wang, Li Dong

2017-01-01

Cancers from lung and esophagus are the leading causes of cancer-related deaths in China and share many similarities in terms of histological type, risk factors and genetic variants. Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in Chinese esophageal cancer patients have demonstrated six high-risk candidate single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Thus, the present study aimed to determine the risk of these SNPs predisposing to lung cancer in Chinese population. A total of 1170 lung cancer patients and 1530 normal subjects were enrolled in this study from high-incidence areas for esophageal cancer in Henan, northern China. Five milliliters of blood were collected from all subjects for genotyping. Genotyping of 20 high-risk SNP loci identified from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on esophageal, lung and gastric cancers was performed using TaqMan allelic discrimination assays. Polymorphisms were examined for deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) using Х2 test. Bonferroni correction was performed to correct the statistical significance of 20 SNPs with the risk of lung cancer. The Pearson's Х2 test was used to compare the distributions of gender, TNM stage, histopathological type, smoking and family history by lung susceptibility genotypes. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were carried out to evaluate the associations between genetic variants and overall survival. Four of the 20 SNPs identified as high-risk SNPs in Chinese esophageal cancer showed increased risk for Chinese lung cancer, which included rs3769823 (OR = 1.26; 95% CI = 1.107-1.509; P = 0.02), rs10931936 (OR = 1.283; 95% CI = 1.100-1.495; P = 0.04), rs2244438 (OR = 1.294; 95% CI = 1.098-1.525; P = 0.04) and rs13016963 (OR = 1.268; 95% CI = 1.089-1.447; P = 0.04). All these SNPs were located at 2q33 region harboringgenes of CASP8, ALS2CR12 and TRAK2. However, none of these susceptibility SNPs was observed to be significantly associated with gender, TNM stage, histopathological type

Accumulation, transfer, and environmental risk of soil mercury in a rapidly industrializing region of the Yangtze River Delta, China

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Huang, Biao; Yan, Lianxiang; Sun, Weixia; Zhao, Yongcun; Shi, Xuezheng [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing (China). State Key Lab. of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture; Wang, Mei [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing (China). State Key Lab. of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture; Graduate Univ. of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Weindorf, David C. [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA (United States). AgCenter

2011-06-15

Purpose: Mercury (Hg) accumulation and transfer in soil ecosystems has been altered on local, regional, and even global scales, and their environmental risk has increasingly been a concern to the public and the scientific community. Materials and methods: A county level region in Zhangjiagang County, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China and a factory with Hg-contaminated wastewater discharging within the region were selected to study the accumulation, bioavailability, and transfer of Hg from different sources in soils and crops under rapid industrialization, urbanization, and intensive agricultural activities. Regional soil samples close to and away from factories and local soil and crop samples around a typical factory were collected in the YRD region of China. Soil and crop Hg and basic soil properties were examined. Results and discussion: Significant soil Hg accumulation was found in soils away from factories regardless of Cambosols (Entisols) and Anthrosols (Inceptisols), while the mobile HCl-extractable Hg (HCl-Hg) were greater in soils closer to factories due to a decrease and increase in soil pH and organic matter. A high level of soil total Hg (T-Hg) was found around the factory, and soil and crop Hg accumulation in the vicinity of the factory was localized with an exponential decrease as distance away from the wastewater discharge outlet increased. Although Hg accumulated in these soils, the T-Hg levels at only a few sampling sites in acidic Anthrosols area were found to exceed the second most stringent critical value of Chinese Environmental Quality Standards for Soils. Conclusions: Considering the cessation of Hg-containing agrochemicals and limitation of effects of industrial activities on Hg accumulation, more attention should be paid to the changes in soil properties and crop rotations than controlling the pathways of Hg entering soils because the current environmental risk is mobilization of accumulated soil Hg. (orig.)

Trends in the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in five Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996

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Maria de Fátima Marinho de Souza

2001-12-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE - To analyze the trends in risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the northern, northeastern, southern, southeastern, and central western Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996. METHODS - Data on mortality due to cardiovascular, cardiac ischemic, and cerebrovascular diseases in 5 Brazilian geographic regions were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Population estimates for the time period from 1978 to 1996 in the 5 Brazilian geographic regions were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method, based on the census data from 1970, 1980, 1991, and the population count of 1996, for each age bracket and sex. Trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS - Cardiovascular diseases showed a declining trend in the southern, southeastern, and northern Brazilian geographic regions in all age brackets and for both sexes. In the northeastern and central western regions, an increasing trend in the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases occurred, except for the age bracket from 30 to 39 years, which showed a slight reduction. This resulted from the trends of cardiac ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The analysis of the trend in the northeastern and northern regions was impaired by the great proportion of poorly defined causes of death. CONCLUSION - The risk of death due to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and cardiac ischemic diseases decreased in the southern and southeastern regions, which are the most developed regions in the country, and increased in the least developed regions, mainly in the central western region.

A Comparison of the Diabetes Risk Score in HIV/AIDS Patients on Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART and HAART-Naïve Patients at the Limbe Regional Hospital, Cameroon.

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Christian Akem Dimala

Full Text Available Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART has been associated with dysglycaemia. However, there is scarce data on the risk of developing diabetes mellitus (DM in HIV/AIDS patients in Africa.Primarily to quantify and compare the risk of having diabetes mellitus in HIV/AIDS patients on HAART and HAART-naïve patients in Limbe, Cameroon; and secondarily to determine if there is an association between HAART and increased DM risk.A cross-sectional study was conducted at the Limbe Regional Hospital HIV treatment center between April and June 2013, involving 200 HIV/AIDS patients (100 on first-line HAART regimens for at least 12 months matched by age and gender to 100 HAART-naïve patients. The Diabetes Risk Score (DRS was calculated using a clinically validated model based on routinely recorded primary care parameters. A DRS ≥ 7% was considered as indicative of an increased risk of developing DM.The median DRS was significantly higher in patients on HAART (2.30% than in HAART-naïve patients (1.62%, p = 0.002. The prevalence of the increased DM risk (DRS ≥ 7% was significantly higher in patients on HAART, 31% (95% CI: 22.13-41.03 than in HAART-naïve patients, 17% (95% CI: 10.23-25.82, p = 0.020. HAART was significantly associated with an increased DM risk, the odds ratio of the HAART group compared to the HAART-naïve group was 2.19 (95% CI: 1.12-4.30, p = 0.020. However, no association was found after adjusting for BMI-defined overweight, hypertension, age, sex, family history of DM and smoking (Odds ratio = 1.22, 95% CI: 0.42-3.59, p = 0.708. Higher BMI and hypertension accounted for the increased risk of DM in patients on HAART. Also, more than 82% of the participants were receiving or had ever used Zidovudine based HAART regimens.HIV/AIDS patients on HAART could be at a greater risk of having DM than HAART-naïve patients as a result of the effect of HAART on risk factors of DM such as BMI and blood pressure.

Interest of comparative risk assessment in economic development and proposals on a regional level: a practical example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouville, A.; Coulon, R.; Aigueperse, J.

1983-01-01

As major human activities develop, those responsible for orienting these activities and making decisions must take more and more account, notably due to pressure from the public, of risks likely to arise, together with other elements of choice such as technical, economic, social and political considerations. It is therefore essential to make an objective assessment of these risks to which individual are exposed naturally or because of their life styles. Because most decisions are made on a regional level and because it is also at this level that can be realistically defined the environmental characteristics, the way of life and the economic and social structure which determine the risks to which the regional population is exposed, it is on this scale that a comparative assessment is of maximum value. This assessment should be as exhaustive as possible and should take into account all the risks whether natural or artificial, and from whatever source (industrial, domestic, medical, etc.). It should take into account successively the exposure to various hazards, and the resulting consequences to health based on the choice of appropriate indicators and on available knowledge of exposure-effects relationships. Subjective aspects of risk perception should also be considered. A study program has been begun covering the region called the ''Grand Delta'' which includes the Rhone valley and its banks to the mediterraneen coast in the South East part of France [fr

High Framingham risk score decreases quality of life in adults

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Christian Yosaputra

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors, such as diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, and obesity tend to occur together in the general population. Increasing prevalence of multiple CVD risk factors has been related to increased risk of death from coronary heart disease and stroke. Studies have suggested that people with several risk factors of CVD may have impaired health-related quality of life. The objective of this study was to assess the association of CVD risk factors with quality of life (QOL among adults aged 40 to 65 years. A cross-sectional study was conducted involving 220 subjects 40 - 65 years of age at a health center. The CVD risk factors were assessed using the Framingham risk score that is the standard instrument for assessment of the risk of a first cardiac event. The risk factors assessed were age, smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol and high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations. QOL was assessed by means of the WHOQOL-BREF instrument that had been prevalidated. The results of the study showed that 28.2% of subjects were smokers, 56.4% had stage 1 hypertension, 42.8% high total cholesterol and 13.6% low HDL cholesterol. The high risk group amounted to 45.5% and 42.3% constitued an intermediate risk group. High CVD risk scores were significantly associated with a low QOL for all domains (physical, psychological, social and environment (p=0.000. Preventing or reducing the multiple CVD risk factors to improve QOL is necessary among adults.

A review of soil heavy metal pollution from industrial and agricultural regions in China: Pollution and risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Qianqi; Li, Zhiyuan; Lu, Xiaoning; Duan, Qiannan; Huang, Lei; Bi, Jun

2018-06-14

Soil heavy metal pollution has been becoming serious and widespread in China. To date, there are few studies assessing the nationwide soil heavy metal pollution induced by industrial and agricultural activities in China. This review obtained heavy metal concentrations in soils of 402 industrial sites and 1041 agricultural sites in China throughout the document retrieval. Based on the database, this review assessed soil heavy metal concentration and estimated the ecological and health risks on a national scale. The results revealed that heavy metal pollution and associated risks posed by cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb) and arsenic (As) are more serious. Besides, heavy metal pollution and associated risks in industrial regions are severer than those in agricultural regions, meanwhile, those in southeast China are severer than those in northwest China. It is worth noting that children are more likely to be affected by heavy metal pollution than adults. Based on the assessment results, Cd, Pb and As are determined as the priority control heavy metals; mining areas are the priority control areas compared to other areas in industrial regions; food crop plantations are the priority control areas in agricultural regions; and children are determined as the priority protection population group. This paper provides a comprehensive ecological and health risk assessment on the heavy metals in soils in Chinese industrial and agricultural regions and thus provides insights for the policymakers regarding exposure reduction and management. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Smoking is the most frequent risk factor for cardiovascular diseases in Croatian Western region: findings of the Croatian health survey 2003

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Henrietta Benčević-Striehl,

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Aim To estimate the prevalence of selected behavioral risk factorsfor cardiovascular diseases in the western region of Croatia and todetermine the differences based on age and gender.Methods A national survey on health status and health behavior ofthe adult population has been conducted. The representative sampleof 10,766 households for six officially defined regions of Croatiahas been determined, and Western region has been included with1,562 inhabitants, aged 18 years and older. The overall responserate of administered face-to-face questionnaire was 85-6%. Prevalencerates per 100 inhabitants (smoking, eating habits, alcoholconsumption, physical activity, socio-economic characteristics,chronic conditions have been determined.Results Nearly half (46.3% of the adults were smokers or hadquit smoking less than 10 years ago. Prevalence of high bloodpressure was high amounting to 40.6% and it was higher in middleaged males (46.7%, p<0.01 and young males (13.7%, p<0.01.Prevalence of obesity was 38.9%, highest in females aged 35-64(51.2%, p<0.001 and 65 and older (73.8%, p<0.01.Almost a quarter of respondents (23.3% has been insufficientlyphysically active, especially young females 22.5%, p<0.01.Conclusion There was a significant difference in the prevalenceof all observed behavioral risk factors according to the gender andage. Moreover, smoking tobacco has been found as the most frequentrisk factor in the observed population.

Flash Flood Risk Perception in an Italian Alpine Region. From Research into Adaptive Strategies.

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Scolobig, A.; de Marchi, B.; Borga, M.

2009-04-01

Flash floods are characterised by short lead times and high levels of uncertainty. Adaptive strategies to face them need to take into account not only the physical characteristics of the hydro-geological phenomena, but also peoples' risk perceptions, attitudes and behaviours in case of an emergency. It is quite obvious that a precondition for an effective adaptation, e.g. in the case of a warning, is the awareness of being endangered. At the same time the perceptions of those at risk and their likely actions inform hazard warning strategies and recovery programmes following such events. Usually low risk awareness or "wrong perceptions" of the residents are considered among the causes of an inadequate preparedness or response to flash floods as well as a symptom of a scarce self-protection culture. In this paper we will focus on flood risk perception and on how research on this topic may contribute to design adaptive strategies and give inputs to flood policy decisions. We will report on a flood risk perception study of the population residing in four villages in an Italian Alpine Region (Trentino Alto-Adige), carried out between October 2005 and January 2006. A total of 400 standardised questionnaires were submitted to local residents by face to face interviews. The surveys were preceded by focus groups with officers from agencies in charge of flood risk management and semi-structured and in-depth interviews with policy, scientific and technical experts. Survey results indicated that people are not so worried about hydro-geological phenomena, and think that their community is more endangered than themselves. The knowledge of the territory and danger sources, the unpredictability of flash floods and the feeling of safety induced by structural devices are the main elements which make the difference in shaping residents' perceptions. The study also demonstrated a widespread lack of adoption of preparatory measures among residents, together with a general low

Recharge heterogeneity and high intensity rainfall events increase contamination risk for Mediterranean groundwater resources

Science.gov (United States)

Hartmann, Andreas; Jasechko, Scott; Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Andreo, Bartolomé; Barberá, Juan Antonio; Brielmann, Heike; Charlier, Jean-Baptiste; Darling, George; Filippini, Maria; Garvelmann, Jakob; Goldscheider, Nico; Kralik, Martin; Kunstmann, Harald; Ladouche, Bernard; Lange, Jens; Mudarra, Matías; Francisco Martín, José; Rimmer, Alon; Sanchez, Damián; Stumpp, Christine; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Karst develops through the dissolution of carbonate rock and results in pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity of hydrological processes. Karst groundwater in Europe is a major source of fresh water contributing up to half of the total drinking water supply in some countries like Austria or Slovenia. Previous work showed that karstic recharge processes enhance and alter the sensitivity of recharge to climate variability. The enhanced preferential flow from the surface to the aquifer may be followed by enhanced risk of groundwater contamination. In this study we assess the contamination risk of karst aquifers over Europe and the Mediterranean using simulated transit time distributions. Using a new type of semi-distributed model that considers the spatial heterogeneity of karst hydraulic properties, we were able to simulate karstic groundwater recharge including its heterogeneous spatiotemporal dynamics. The model is driven by gridded daily climate data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Transit time distributions are calculated using virtual tracer experiments. We evaluated our simulations by independent information on transit times derived from observed time series of water isotopes of >70 karst springs over Europe. The simulations indicate that, compared to humid, mountain and desert regions, the Mediterranean region shows a stronger risk of contamination in Europe because preferential flow processes are most pronounced given thin soil layers and the seasonal abundance of high intensity rainfall events in autumn and winter. Our modelling approach includes strong simplifications and its results cannot easily be generalized but it still highlights that the combined effects of variable climate and heterogeneous catchment properties constitute a strong risk on water quality.

[Ecological risk assessment of human activity of rapid economic development regions in southern Jiangsu, China: a case study of Dantu District of Zhenjiang City].

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Guang-Ling; Xiang, Bao; Wang, Bao-Liang; Jin, Xia; Hu, Yu; Zhang, Li-Kun

2014-04-01

This article investigated the spatiotemporal variation of landscape ecological risk in Dantu District of Zhenjiang City with statistical method based on the ETM remote sensing data in 2000 and 2005, and the TM remote sensing data in 2010, and quantitative index of regional ecological risk assessment was established with the employment of landscape index, so as to enhance the ecosystem management, prevent and reduce the regional ecological risk in southern Jiangsu with rapid economic development. The results showed that the fragmentations, divergence, and ecological losses of natural landscape types, such as forestland, wetland, waters, etc., were deteriorated with the expansion of built-up lands from 2000 to 2010. The higher ecological risk zone took up 5.7%, 9.0%, and 10.2% of the whole region in 2000, 2005, and 2010, respectively, which mainly distributed in the plain hilly region. During the study period, the area aggravating to the higher ecological risk zone was approximately 296.2 km2, 48% of the whole region. The ecological risk rose up in most of the region. The interference of rapid economic development to landscape patterns was even more intensive, with obvious spatial differences in ecological risk distribution. The measures of exploiting resources near the port, utilizing natural wetlands, constructing industrial parks, and rapid urbanization, etc., intensified the ecological risk and accelerated the conversion rate. Prompt strategies should be established to manage the ecological risk of this region.

Healthcare waste management practices and risk perceptions: findings from hospitals in the Algarve region, Portugal.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira, Vera; Teixeira, Margarida Ribau

2010-12-01

The management of healthcare wastes is receiving greater attention because of the risks to both human health and the environment caused by inadequate waste management practices. In that context, the objective of this study was to analyse the healthcare waste management practices in hospitals of the Algarve region, Portugal, and in particular to assess the risk perceptions of, and actual risk to, healthcare staff. The study included three of the six hospitals in the region, covering 41% of the bed capacity. Data were collected via surveys, interviews, and on-site observations. The results indicate that waste separation is the main deficiency in healthcare waste practice, with correct separation being positively related to the degree of daily contact with the waste. Risk perceptions of healthcare staff show the highest levels for the environment (4.24) and waste workers (4.08), and the lowest for patients (3.29) and visitors (2.80), again being positively associated with the degree of daily contact. Risk perceptions of healthcare staff are related to the difficulties of the correct separation of wastes and the lack of knowledge concerning the importance of that separation. The risk of infection with needlesticks/sharps is higher during patient care than during waste handling, and the frequency of these injuries is related to the daily tasks of each healthcare group (doctors, nurses, and housekeepers). Furthermore, legislative definitions and classifications of healthcare wastes appear to have conditioned the management practices associated with, and the perceptions of risk concerning, healthcare wastes. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Technique for axillary radiotherapy using computer-assisted planning for high-risk skin cancerΤ

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fogarty, G.B.; Martin, J.M.; Fay, M.; Ainslie J; Cassumbhoy, R.

2007-01-01

High-risk skin cancer arising on the upper limb or trunk can cause axillary nodal metastases. Previous studies have shown that axillary radiotherapy improves regional control. There is little published work on technique. Technique standardization is important in quality assurance and comparison of results especially for trials. Our technique, planned with CT assistance, is presented. To assess efficacy, an audit of patients treated in our institution over a 15-month period was conducted. Of 24 patients treated, 13 were treated with radical intent, 11 with this technique. With a follow up of over 2 years, the technique had more than a 90% (10/11) regional control in this radical group. Both of the radical patients who were not treated according to the technique had regional failure. One case of late toxicity was found, of asymptomatic lymphoedema in a radically treated patient. This technique for axillary radiotherapy for regional control of skin cancer is acceptable in terms of disease control and toxicity as validated by audit at 2 years

High-sensitivity C-reactive protein and risk of sepsis.

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Henry E Wang

Full Text Available Conventional C-reactive protein assays have been used to detect or guide the treatment of acute sepsis. The objective of this study was to determine the association between elevated baseline high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP and the risk of future sepsis events.We studied data from 30,239 community dwelling, black and white individuals, age ≥45 years old enrolled in the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS cohort. Baseline hsCRP and participant characteristics were determined at the start of the study. We identified sepsis events through review of hospital records. Elevated hsCRP was defined as values >3.0 mg/L. Using Cox regression, we determined the association between elevated hsCRP and first sepsis event, adjusting for sociodemographic factors (age, sex, race, region, education, income, health behaviors (tobacco and alcohol use, chronic medical conditions (coronary artery disease, diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, chronic lung disease and statin use.Over the mean observation time of 5.7 years (IQR 4.5-7.1, 974 individuals experienced a sepsis event, and 11,447 (37.9% had elevated baseline hsCRP (>3.0 mg/L. Elevated baseline hsCRP was independently associated with subsequent sepsis (adjusted HR 1.56; 95% CI 1.36-1.79, adjusted for sociodemographics, health behaviors, chronic medical conditions and statin use.Elevated baseline hsCRP was associated with increased risk of future sepsis events. hsCRP may help to identify individuals at increased risk for sepsis.

Assessment of landslide risk using gis and statistical methods in kysuce region

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Barančoková Mária

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The landslide susceptibility was assessed based on multivariation analysis. The input parameters were represented by lithology, land use, slope inclination and average annual precipitation. These parameters were evaluated as independent variables, and the existing landslides as dependent variables. The individual input parameters were reclassified and spatially adjusted. Spatial analysis resulted in 15 988 combinations of input parameters representing the homogeneous condition unit (HCU . Based on the landslide density within individual units, the HCU polygons have been classified according to landslide risk into stable, conditionally stable, conditionally stable and unstable (subdivided into low, medium and high landslide risk. A total of 2002 HCU s were affected by landslides, and the remaining 13 986 were not affected. The total HCU area affected by landslides is about 156.92 km2 (20.1%. Stable areas covered 623.01 km2 (79.8%, and conditionally stable areas covered 228.77 km2 (29.33% out of this area. Unstable areas were divided into three levels of landslide risk - low, medium and high risk. An area of 111.19 km2 (14.3% represents low landslide risk, medium risk 29.7 km2 (3.8% and 16.01 km2 (2% represents high risk. Since Zlín Formation lithological unit covers approximately one-third of the study area, it also influences the overall landslide risk assessment. This lithological formation covers the largest area within all landslide risk classes as well as in conditionally stable areas. The most frequent slope class was in the range of 14-19. The higher susceptibility of Zlín Formation to landslides is caused mainly by different geomorphological value of claystone and sandstone sequence. The higher share of claystone results in higher susceptibility of this formation to exogenous degradation processes.

Comparison between seismic and domestic risk in moderate seismic hazard prone region: the Grenoble City (France test site

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F. Dunand

2012-02-01

Full Text Available France has a moderate level of seismic activity, characterized by diffuse seismicity, sometimes experiencing earthquakes of a magnitude of more than 5 in the most active zones. In this seismicity context, Grenoble is a city of major economic and social importance. However, earthquakes being rare, public authorities and the decision makers are only vaguely committed to reducing seismic risk: return periods are long and local policy makers do not have much information available. Over the past 25 yr, a large number of studies have been conducted to improve our knowledge of seismic hazard in this region. One of the decision-making concerns of Grenoble's public authorities, as managers of a large number of public buildings, is to know not only the seismic-prone regions, the variability of seismic hazard due to site effects and the city's overall vulnerability, but also the level of seismic risk and exposure for the entire city, also compared to other natural or/and domestic hazards. Our seismic risk analysis uses a probabilistic approach for regional and local hazards and the vulnerability assessment of buildings. Its applicability to Grenoble offers the advantage of being based on knowledge acquired by previous projects conducted over the years. This paper aims to compare the level of seismic risk with that of other risks and to introduce the notion of risk acceptability in order to offer guidance in the management of seismic risk. This notion of acceptability, which is now part of seismic risk consideration for existing buildings in Switzerland, is relevant in moderately seismic-prone countries like France.

Forests at risk: integrating risk science into fuel management strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Jonathan. Thompson

2008-01-01

The threat from wildland fire continues to grow across many regions of the Western United States. Drought, urbanization, and a buildup of fuels over the last century have contributed to increasing wildfire risk to property and highly valued natural resources. Fuel treatments, including thinning overly dense forests to reduce fuel and lower fire risk, have become a...

Very High-Risk Localized Prostate Cancer: Outcomes Following Definitive Radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narang, Amol K.; Gergis, Carol; Robertson, Scott P.; He, Pei; Ram, Ashwin N.; McNutt, Todd R.; Griffith, Emily; DeWeese, Theodore A.; Honig, Stephanie; Singh, Harleen; Song, Danny Y.; Tran, Phuoc T.; DeWeese, Theodore L.

2016-01-01

Purpose: Existing definitions of high-risk prostate cancer consist of men who experience significant heterogeneity in outcomes. As such, criteria that identify a subpopulation of National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) high-risk prostate cancer patients who are at very high risk (VHR) for poor survival outcomes following prostatectomy were recently developed at our institution and include the presence of any of the following disease characteristics: multiple NCCN high-risk factors, primary Gleason pattern 5 disease and/or ≥5 biopsy cores with Gleason sums of 8 to 10. Whether these criteria also apply to men undergoing definitive radiation is unclear, as is the optimal treatment regimen in these patients. Methods and Materials: All men consecutively treated with definitive radiation by a single provider from 1993 to 2006 and who fulfilled criteria for NCCN high-risk disease were identified (n=288), including 99 patients (34%) with VHR disease. Multivariate-adjusted competing risk regression models were constructed to assess associations between the VHR definition and biochemical failure (BF), distant metastasis (DM), and prostate cancer–specific mortality (PCSM). Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression analysis assessed the association of the VHR definition with overall mortality (OM). Cumulative incidences of failure endpoints were compared between VHR men and other NCCN high-risk men. Results: Men with VHR disease compared to other NCCN high-risk men experienced a higher 10-year incidence of BF (54.0% vs 35.4%, respectively, P<.001), DM (34.9% vs 13.4%, respectively, P<.001), PCSM (18.5% vs 5.9%, respectively, P<.001), and OM (36.4% vs 27.0%, respectively, P=.04). VHR men with a detectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration at the end of radiation (EOR) remained at high risk of 10-year PCSM compared to VHR men with an undetectable EOR PSA (31.0% vs 13.7%, respectively, P=.05). Conclusions: NCCN high-risk prostate cancer patients who meet VHR

The Prevalence of High-Risk HPV Types and Factors Determining Infection in Female Colombian Adolescents.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luisa Del Río-Ospina

Full Text Available This study reports six HR-HPV types' infection prevalence discriminated by species and multiple infection in unvaccinated Colombian female adolescents, as well as some factors modulating the risk of infection. HPV DNA for six high-risk viral types was identified in cervical samples taken from 2,134 12-19 year-old females using conventional generic and type-specific PCR. Binomial logistical regression analysis was used for modelling HR-HPV infection and multiple infection risk. The interaction between variables in a stepwise model was also included in such analysis. Viral DNA was detected in 48.97% of the females; 28.52% of them had multiple infections, HPV-16 being the most frequently occurring type (37.44%. Cytological abnormality prevalence was 15.61%. Being over 16 years-old (1.66: 1.01-2.71 95%CI, white ethnicity (4.40: 1.16-16.73 95%CI, having had 3 or more sexual partners (1.77: 1.11-2.81 95%CI and prior sexually-transmitted infections (STI (1.65: 1.17-2.32 95%CI were associated with a greater risk of HPV infection. Having given birth was related to a higher risk of infection by A7 species and antecedent of abortion to less risk of coinfection. Where the females in this study came from also influenced the risk of infection by A7 species as female adolescents from the Andean region had a lower risk of infection (0.42: 0.18-0.99 95%CI. The presence of factors related to risky sexual behaviour in the study population indicated that public health services should pay special attention to female adolescents to modify the risk of infection by high-risk HPV types and decrease their impact on this age group.

Child Maltreatment and Clinical Outcome in Individuals at Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis in the EU-GEI High Risk Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kraan, Tamar C.; Velthorst, Eva; Themmen, Manouk; Valmaggia, Lucia; Kempton, Matthew J.; McGuire, Phillip; Van Os, Jim; Rutten, Bart P.F.; Smit, Filip; De Haan, Lieuwe; Van Der Gaag, Mark; McGuire, Philip; Valmaggia, Lucia R.; Calem, Maria; Tognin, Stefania; Modinos, Gemma; Burger, Nadine; Van Dam, Daniella S.; Barrantes-Vidal, Neus; Domínguez-Martínez, Tecelli; Cristóbal-Narváez, Paula; Kwapil, Thomas R.; Monsonet-Bardají, Manel; Hinojosa, Lídia; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Borgwardt, Stefan; Rapp, Charlotte; Ittig, Sarah; Studerus, Erich; Smieskova, Renata; Bressan, Rodrigo; Gadelha, Ary; Brietzke, Elisa; Asevedo, Graccielle; Asevedo, Elson; Zugman, Andre; Ruhrmann, Stephan; Gebhard, Dominika; Arnhold, Julia; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Nordholm, Dorte; Randers, Lasse; Krakauer, Kristine; Naumann, Tanya Louise; Glenthøj, Louise Birkedal; Nordentoft, Merete; De Hert, Marc; Van Winkel, Ruud; Nelson, Barnaby; McGorry, Patrick

2018-01-01

Background: Child maltreatment has been associated with a wide range of mental disorders in adulthood. Whether child maltreatment is specifically associated with psychosis risk in individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis, or leads to a general vulnerability for overall psychopathology in

InSAR deformation monitoring of high risk landslides

Science.gov (United States)

Singhroy, V.; Li, J.

2013-05-01

During the past year there were at least twenty five media reports of landslides and seismic activities some fatal, occurring in various areas in Canada. These high risk geohazards sites requires high resolution monitoring both spatially and temporally for mitigation purposes, since they are near populated areas and energy, transportation and communication corridors. High resolution air photos, lidar and satellite images are quite common in areas where the landslides can be fatal. Radar interferometry (InSAR) techniques using images from several radar satellites are increasingly being used in slope stability assessment. This presentation provides examples of using high-resolution (1-3m) frequent revisits InSAR techniques from RADARSAT 2 and TerraSAR X to monitor several types of high-risk landslides affecting transportation and energy corridors and populated areas. We have analyses over 200 high resolution InSAR images over a three year period on geologically different landslides. The high-resolution InSAR images are effective in characterizing differential motion within these low velocity landslides. The low velocity landslides become high risk during the active wet spring periods. The wet soils are poor coherent targets and corner reflectors provide an effective means of InSAR monitoring the slope activities.

Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India.

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Singh, Kuntal; McClean, Colin J; Büker, Patrick; Hartley, Sue E; Hill, Jane K

2017-09-01

Global warming is predicted to increase in the future, with detrimental consequences for rainfed crops that are dependent on natural rainfall (i.e. non-irrigated). Given that many crops grown under rainfed conditions support the livelihoods of low-income farmers, it is important to highlight the vulnerability of rainfed areas to climate change in order to anticipate potential risks to food security. In this paper, we focus on India, where ~ 50% of rice is grown under rainfed conditions, and we employ statistical models (climate envelope models (CEMs) and boosted regression trees (BRTs)) to map changes in climate suitability for rainfed rice cultivation at a regional level (~ 18 × 18 km cell resolution) under projected future (2050) climate change (IPCC RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, using three GCMs: BCC-CSM1.1, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and HadGEM2-ES). We quantify the occurrence of rice (whether or not rainfed rice is commonly grown, using CEMs) and rice extent (area under cultivation, using BRTs) during the summer monsoon in relation to four climate variables that affect rice growth and yield namely ratio of precipitation to evapotranspiration ( PER ), maximum and minimum temperatures ( T max and T min ), and total rainfall during harvesting. Our models described the occurrence and extent of rice very well (CEMs for occurrence, ensemble AUC = 0.92; BRTs for extent, Pearson's r = 0.87). PER was the most important predictor of rainfed rice occurrence, and it was positively related to rainfed rice area, but all four climate variables were important for determining the extent of rice cultivation. Our models project that 15%-40% of current rainfed rice growing areas will be at risk (i.e. decline in climate suitability or become completely unsuitable). However, our models project considerable variation across India in the impact of future climate change: eastern and northern India are the locations most at risk, but parts of central and western India may benefit from increased

Update on the Management of High-Risk Penetrating Keratoplasty.

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Jabbehdari, Sayena; Rafii, Alireza Baradaran; Yazdanpanah, Ghasem; Hamrah, Pedram; Holland, Edward J; Djalilian, Ali R

2017-03-01

In this article, we review the indications and latest management of high-risk penetrating keratoplasty. Despite the immune-privilege status of the cornea, immune-mediated graft rejection still remains the leading cause of corneal graft failure. This is particularly a problem in the high-risk graft recipients, namely patients with previous graft failure due to rejection and those with inflamed and vascularized corneal beds. A number of strategies including both local and systemic immunosuppression are currently used to increase the success rate of high-risk corneal grafts. Moreover, in cases of limbal stem cell deficiency, limbal stem cells transplantation is employed. Corticosteroids are still the top medication for prevention and treatment in cases of corneal graft rejection. Single and combined administration of immunosuppressive agents e.g. tacrolimus, cyclosporine and mycophenolate are promising adjunctive therapies for prolonging graft survival. In the future, cellular and molecular therapies should allow us to achieve immunologic tolerance even in high-risk grafts.

Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation in sandy regions: A case study in the Loess Plateau, China

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Guo, Aijun; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Huang, Qiang; Zhou, Shuai

2018-05-01

Traditional flood risk analysis focuses on the probability of flood events exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures while neglecting the influence of sedimentation in river channels on regional flood control systems. This work advances traditional flood risk analysis by proposing a univariate and copula-based bivariate hydrological risk framework which incorporates both flood control and sediment transport. In developing the framework, the conditional probabilities of different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated by exploiting the copula-based model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm is designed to quantify the sampling uncertainty associated with univariate and bivariate hydrological risk analyses. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions: the upper catchments of the Xianyang and Huaxian stations (denoted as UCX and UCH, respectively). The univariate and bivariate return periods, risk and reliability in the context of uncertainty for the purposes of flood control and sediment transport are assessed for the study regions. The results indicate that sedimentation triggers higher risks of damaging the safety of local flood control systems compared with the event that AMF exceeds the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures in the UCX and UCH. Moreover, there is considerable sampling uncertainty affecting the univariate and bivariate hydrologic risk evaluation, which greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. In addition, results also confirm that the developed framework can estimate conditional probabilities associated with different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios aiming for flood control and sediment transport. The proposed hydrological risk framework offers a promising technical reference for flood risk analysis in sandy regions worldwide.

High risk process control system assessment methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

2009-07-01

The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

Mother-Child Interactional Patterns in High- and Low-Risk Mothers.

Science.gov (United States)

Dolz, Laura; Cerezo, M. Angeles; Milner, Joel S.

1997-01-01

A study of 10 high-risk (of child physical abuse) and 10 demographically similar low-risk Spanish mother-child dyads investigated interactional patterns in the home. High-risk mothers made fewer neutral approaches to their children, displayed more negative behaviors toward their children, and made more indiscriminate responses to their children's…

Lipid profile, cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean high-risk population: The ESCARVAL-RISK study.

Science.gov (United States)

Orozco-Beltran, Domingo; Gil-Guillen, Vicente F; Redon, Josep; Martin-Moreno, Jose M; Pallares-Carratala, Vicente; Navarro-Perez, Jorge; Valls-Roca, Francisco; Sanchis-Domenech, Carlos; Fernandez-Gimenez, Antonio; Perez-Navarro, Ana; Bertomeu-Martinez, Vicente; Bertomeu-Gonzalez, Vicente; Cordero, Alberto; Pascual de la Torre, Manuel; Trillo, Jose L; Carratala-Munuera, Concepcion; Pita-Fernandez, Salvador; Uso, Ruth; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramon; Cooper, Richard; Sanz, Gines; Castellano, Jose M; Ascaso, Juan F; Carmena, Rafael; Tellez-Plaza, Maria

2017-01-01

The potential impact of targeting different components of an adverse lipid profile in populations with multiple cardiovascular risk factors is not completely clear. This study aims to assess the association between different components of the standard lipid profile with all-cause mortality and hospitalization due to cardiovascular events in a high-risk population. This prospective registry included high risk adults over 30 years old free of cardiovascular disease (2008-2012). Diagnosis of hypertension, dyslipidemia or diabetes mellitus was inclusion criterion. Lipid biomarkers were evaluated. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and hospital admission due to coronary heart disease or stroke. We estimated adjusted rate ratios (aRR), absolute risk differences and population attributable risk associated with adverse lipid profiles. 51,462 subjects were included with a mean age of 62.6 years (47.6% men). During an average follow-up of 3.2 years, 919 deaths, 1666 hospitalizations for coronary heart disease and 1510 hospitalizations for stroke were recorded. The parameters that showed an increased rate for total mortality, coronary heart disease and stroke hospitalization were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.25, 1.29 and 1.23; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.22, 1.38 and 1.25; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.21, 1.30, 1.09. The parameters that showed highest population attributable risk (%) were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: 7.70, 11.42, 8.40; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: 6.55, 12.47, 8.73; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: 8.94, 15.09, 6.92. In a population with cardiovascular risk factors, HDL-cholesterol, Total/HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratios were associated with a higher population attributable risk for cardiovascular disease compared to other common biomarkers.

Rapidly developing marketing regions : Southeast Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Howe, J.

1997-01-01

The risks and opportunities in the rapidly developing markets in Southeast Asia, China in particular, were discussed. It was asserted that no other region in the world can match the long-term market opportunities that China and Southeast Asia promise. The forces driving the economic development in Southeast Asia were described, including the great potential the region holds for the petrochemical industry. Graphs showing total polyethylene production vs. demand for year 2005 were included as illustrative examples. By 2005, China is projected to be importing almost one-half of the products it consumes. Every country with excess capacity will supply China with polyethylene. The political uncertainties that makes doing business in the region a high risk undertaking were reviewed, along with other risks relevant to the petrochemical industry such as (1) high capital costs, (2) over-building to the point that there is more supply than demand for the product, (3) low-cost producers may drive down prices to maintain market share, and (4) the uncertain nature of projections regarding economic growth and (5) inflated estimates of demand for petrochemicals. 1 tab., 4 figs

Detection of high GS risk group prostate tumors by diffusion tensor imaging and logistic regression modelling.

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Ertas, Gokhan

2018-07-01

To assess the value of joint evaluation of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) measures by using logistic regression modelling to detect high GS risk group prostate tumors. Fifty tumors imaged using DTI on a 3 T MRI device were analyzed. Regions of interests focusing on the center of tumor foci and noncancerous tissue on the maps of mean diffusivity (MD) and fractional anisotropy (FA) were used to extract the minimum, the maximum and the mean measures. Measure ratio was computed by dividing tumor measure by noncancerous tissue measure. Logistic regression models were fitted for all possible pair combinations of the measures using 5-fold cross validation. Systematic differences are present for all MD measures and also for all FA measures in distinguishing the high risk tumors [GS ≥ 7(4 + 3)] from the low risk tumors [GS ≤ 7(3 + 4)] (P Logistic regression modelling provides a favorable solution for the joint evaluations easily adoptable in clinical practice. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reducing sexual risk behavior among high-risk couples in Northern India.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Deborah; Bagga, Rashmi; Nehra, Ritu; Deepika; Sethi, Sunil; Walia, Kamini; Kumar, Mahendra; Villar-Loubet, Olga; Lopez, Maria; Weiss, Stephen M

2013-09-01

With a population of 1.1 billion, India is considered to be a country in which effective prevention interventions could contain the development of a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic. Heterosexual transmission accounts for 85 % of the extant HIV infections. This study sought to assess the feasibility of conducting a group, culturally tailored behavioral intervention and its impact on sexual barrier use, self-efficacy, knowledge, conflict resolution, and coping among high-risk heterosexual couples in Northern India. This pilot study was conducted at the Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research (PGIMER), Chandigarh, India from February 2008 to January 2009. Thirty sexually active high-risk couples were drawn from a convenience sample of PGIMER patients attending infectious disease and family planning clinics. Couples participated in 1 month of three weekly gender-concordant behavioral intervention groups and were individually administered assessments preintervention and post-intervention. The intervention was tailored to the Northern Indian context and addressed sexual barrier use, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/sexually transmitted infection transmission, and cognitive behavioral skill building focusing on sexual negotiation and communication. The participants had a mean age of 32 years (men) and 29 years (women), and the majority had at least 10 years of education. At baseline, the majority reported inconsistent condom use (knowledge, and women increased their use of positive coping tactics. The results highlight the potential to successfully utilize a group intervention to discuss sensitive issues such as sexual risk behavior among both men and women. Strategies to improve condom use and communication without increasing intimate partner violence in high-risk couples may be an important adjunct to preventing the development of a generalized epidemic in India.

Data-driven directions for effective footwear provision for the high-risk diabetic foot.

Science.gov (United States)

Arts, M L J; de Haart, M; Waaijman, R; Dahmen, R; Berendsen, H; Nollet, F; Bus, S A

2015-06-01

Custom-made footwear is used to offload the diabetic foot to prevent plantar foot ulcers. This prospective study evaluates the offloading effects of modifying custom-made footwear and aims to provide data-driven directions for the provision of effectively offloading footwear in clinical practice. Eighty-five people with diabetic neuropathy and a recently healed plantar foot ulcer, who participated in a clinical trial on footwear effectiveness, had their custom-made footwear evaluated with in-shoe plantar pressure measurements at three-monthly intervals. Footwear was modified when peak pressure was ≥ 200 kPa. The effect of single and combined footwear modifications on in-shoe peak pressure at these high-pressure target locations was assessed. All footwear modifications significantly reduced peak pressure at the target locations compared with pre-modification levels (range -6.7% to -24.0%, P diabetic neuropathy and a recently healed plantar foot ulcer, significant offloading can be achieved at high-risk foot regions by modifying custom-made footwear. These results provide data-driven directions for the design and evaluation of custom-made footwear for high-risk people with diabetes, and essentially mean that each shoe prescribed should incorporate those design features that effectively offload the foot. © 2015 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2015 Diabetes UK.

At-risk high school seniors: Science remediation for Georgia's High School Graduation Test

Science.gov (United States)

Carroll, Carolyn M.

State departments of education have created a system of accountability for the academic achievement of students under the mandate of the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001. The Georgia Department of Education established the Georgia High School Graduation Test (GHSGT) as their method of evaluating the academic achievement of high school students. The GHSGT consist of five sections and students must pass all five sections before students they are eligible to receive a diploma. The purpose of the study was to examine the effects of teacher-lead and computer based remediation for a group of high school seniors who have been unsuccessful in passing the science portion of the GHSGT. The objectives of this study include (a) Identify the most effective method of remediation for at-risk students on the science section of the GHSGT, and (b) evaluate the methods of remediation for at-risk students on the science section of GHSGT available to high school students. The participants of this study were at-risk seniors enrolled in one high school during the 2007-2008 school year. The findings of this research study indicated that at-risk students who participated in both types of remediation, teacher-led and computer-based, scored significantly higher than the computer-based remediation group alone. There was no significant relationship between the test scores and the number of times the students were tested.

Screening for Hypoglycemia in Exclusively Breastfed High-risk Neonates.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Princy; Upadhyay, Amit; Sreenivas, Vishnubhatla; Jaiswal, Vijay; Saxena, Pranjali

2017-06-15

To determine incidence of hypoglycemia in exclusively breastfed, high-risk but healthy newborns, and risk factors for its development. This observational study enrolled 407 exclusively breastfed high-risk (low birth weight newborns (1800-2499 g), late preterms, small-for-gestation, large-for-gestation and infant of diabetic mother), who did not require admission to neonatal intensive care unit and were kept in postnatal wards with mother. Hypoglycemia was defined as blood glucose £46 mg/dL (2.6 mmol/L). Blood glucose was monitored till 48 hours of life. 27% of the screened newborns developed hypoglycemia in first 48 hours. 31 (7.6%) developed recurrent (>2) episodes, 28 (6.8%) had moderate (<37mg/dL) while 8 (1.9%) developed symptomatic hypoglycemia. With increase in birthweight, risk of hypoglycemia reduced significantly (P=0.003). Hypoglycemia was observed more frequently in first 2 hours as compared to next 48 hours (P=0.0001). Low birth- weight, preterm gestation and male gender was significantly associated with increased risk of hypoglycemia. Healthy, high-risk exclusively breastfed newborns in postnatal wards need close monitoring for hypoglycemia in first 24 hrs of life.

Assessing Risk in Costing High-energy Accelerators: from Existing Projects to the Future Linear Collider

CERN Document Server

Lebrun, Philippe

2010-01-01

High-energy accelerators are large projects funded by public money, developed over the years and constructed via major industrial contracts both in advanced technology and in more conventional domains such as civil engineering and infrastructure, for which they often constitute one-of markets. Assessing their cost, as well as the risk and uncertainty associated with this assessment is therefore an essential part of project preparation and a justified requirement by the funding agencies. Stemming from the experience with large circular colliders at CERN, LEP and LHC, as well as with the Main Injector, the Tevatron Collider Experiments and Accelerator Upgrades, and the NOvA Experiment at Fermilab, we discuss sources of cost variance and derive cost risk assessment methods applicable to the future linear collider, through its two technical approaches for ILC and CLIC. We also address disparities in cost risk assessment imposed by regional differences in regulations, procedures and practices.

Presence of High-Risk HPV mRNA in Relation to Future High-Grade Lesions among High-Risk HPV DNA Positive Women with Minor Cytological Abnormalities.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanna Johansson

Full Text Available Continuous expression of E6- and E7-oncogenes of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV types is necessary for the development and maintenance of the dysplastic phenotype. The aim of the study was to determine the sensitivity and specificity of the APTIMA HPV mRNA assay (Hologic in predicting future development of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN among high-risk HPV-DNA-positive women with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS or low-grade squamous epithelial lesion (LSIL cytology.Archived SurePath cervical samples of women ≥ 35 years of age with high-risk HPV DNA-positive ASCUS (n = 211 or LSIL, (n = 131 were tested for the presence of high-risk HPV E6/E7 mRNA using the APTIMA HPV assay, and the women were monitored for development of histopathologically verified CIN2+.Twenty-nine percent (61/211 of the women in the ASCUS group, and 34.3% (45/131 in the LSIL group developed CIN2+ within 4.5 years of follow-up. The prevalence of HPV mRNA was 90.0% (95% CI 85.9-94.0 among women with ASCUS and 95.4% (95% CI 91.8-99.0 among women with LSIL. The presence of HPV E6/E7 mRNA was associated with future development of CIN2+ among women with ASCUS and LSIL (p=0.02. The mRNA assay demonstrated high sensitivity in predicting future CIN2+ and CIN3 for index ASCUS (96.7%; 95% CI 87.6-99.4 and 100%; 95% CI 82.2-100, respectively and LSIL (97.8%, 95% CI 86.8-99.9 and 100%, 95% CI 79.9-100, respectively. The corresponding specificity was low, 12.7% (95% CI 7.9-19.3 and 5.8% (95% CI 2.2-13.6, for future CIN2+, respectively. The negative predictive value of the HPV mRNA assay for detecting future CIN3 was 100%, since no mRNA-negative woman developed CIN3 (0/27 as compared to 13.6% (43/315 of the mRNA-positive women (p = 0.03.The APTIMA mRNA assay demonstrated high sensitivity but low specificity in predicting future CIN2+ among women with minor cytological abnormalities. The assay had high negative predictive value for future

Presence of High-Risk HPV mRNA in Relation to Future High-Grade Lesions among High-Risk HPV DNA Positive Women with Minor Cytological Abnormalities

Science.gov (United States)

Johansson, Hanna; Bjelkenkrantz, Kaj; Darlin, Lotten; Dilllner, Joakim; Forslund, Ola

2015-01-01

Objective Continuous expression of E6- and E7-oncogenes of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) types is necessary for the development and maintenance of the dysplastic phenotype. The aim of the study was to determine the sensitivity and specificity of the APTIMA HPV mRNA assay (Hologic) in predicting future development of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) among high-risk HPV-DNA-positive women with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) or low-grade squamous epithelial lesion (LSIL) cytology. Methods Archived SurePath cervical samples of women ≥ 35 years of age with high-risk HPV DNA-positive ASCUS (n = 211) or LSIL, (n = 131) were tested for the presence of high-risk HPV E6/E7 mRNA using the APTIMA HPV assay, and the women were monitored for development of histopathologically verified CIN2+. Results Twenty-nine percent (61/211) of the women in the ASCUS group, and 34.3% (45/131) in the LSIL group developed CIN2+ within 4.5 years of follow-up. The prevalence of HPV mRNA was 90.0% (95% CI 85.9-94.0) among women with ASCUS and 95.4% (95% CI 91.8-99.0) among women with LSIL. The presence of HPV E6/E7 mRNA was associated with future development of CIN2+ among women with ASCUS and LSIL (p=0.02). The mRNA assay demonstrated high sensitivity in predicting future CIN2+ and CIN3 for index ASCUS (96.7%; 95% CI 87.6-99.4 and 100%; 95% CI 82.2-100, respectively) and LSIL (97.8%, 95% CI 86.8-99.9 and 100%, 95% CI 79.9-100, respectively). The corresponding specificity was low, 12.7% (95% CI 7.9-19.3) and 5.8% (95% CI 2.2-13.6), for future CIN2+, respectively. The negative predictive value of the HPV mRNA assay for detecting future CIN3 was 100%, since no mRNA-negative woman developed CIN3 (0/27) as compared to 13.6% (43/315) of the mRNA-positive women (p = 0.03). Conclusion The APTIMA mRNA assay demonstrated high sensitivity but low specificity in predicting future CIN2+ among women with minor cytological abnormalities. The assay had

Mortality trends and risk of dying from pulmonary tuberculosis in the 7 socioeconomic regions and the 32 States of Mexico, 2000-2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez-Barriga, Juan Jesús

2015-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) is a world public health problem that still has a high morbidity and mortality rate mainly in countries with significant wealth gaps. Poverty, malnutrition, HIV infection, drug resistance, diabetes and addictions (mainly alcoholism) have been seen to contribute to the persistence of TB as an important health problem in Mexico. Death certificates associated with pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) for 2000-2009 were obtained from the National Information System of the Secretariat of Health. Rates of mortality nationwide, by state, and by socioeconomic region were calculated. The strength of association between states where individuals resided, socioeconomic regions, and education with mortality from PTB was determined. Age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants who died from PTB decreased from 4.1 to 2 between 2000 and 2009. Men (67.7%) presented higher mortality than women (32.3%). Individuals failing to complete elementary education presented a higher risk of dying from PTB (RR 1.08 [95%CI: 1.05-1.12]). The socioeconomic region and the entities with the strongest association were region 1, 5, Chiapas and Baja California. Region 1 in 2007 presented RR 7.34 (95%CI: 5.32-10.13), and region 5 in 2009 had RR 10.08 (95%CI: 6.83-14.88). In Mexico, the annual mortality rate from PTB decreased. Men presented higher mortality than women. Individuals failing to complete elementary education showed a higher risk of dying from PTB. The states and regions of Mexico that presented a stronger association with mortality from PTB were Chiapas and Baja California, region 1 and 5. Copyright © 2014 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Fractional laser-mediated photodynamic therapy of high-risk basal cell carcinomas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haak, C S; Togsverd-Bo, K; Thaysen-Petersen, D

2015-01-01

efficacy and safety of AFXL-mediated PDT (AFXL-PDT) compared with conventional PDT of high-risk nBCC. METHODS: Patients with histologically verified facial nBCC (n = 32) defined as high-risk tumours were included; diameter > 15 mm, tumours located in high-risk zones, or on severely sun-damaged skin...

The high-risk HPV infection and urinary system tumor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Wenyan

2018-04-01

Full Text Available HPV is classified into high-risk and low-risk types depending on its probability of leading to tumorigenesis. Many studies have shown that HPV infection, especially the infection caused by the high-risk type, is always related to prostate cancer, bladder cancer, penile cancer, testicular cancer, and other urinary system tumors. However, previous studies differed in sexual openness and racial genetic susceptibility of the study object, sample size, and experimental methods. Hence, the correlation between high-risk HPV infection and urinary system tumors remains controversial. The early open reading frame of the HPV genome is composed of E1–E7, among which E6 and E7 are the key transfer proteins. The combination of these proteins with oncogene and anti-oncogene may be one of the mechanisms leading to tumorigenesis.

An Overview. High Risk Series.

Science.gov (United States)

General Accounting Office, Washington, DC.

This report provides an overview of efforts undertaken by the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) in 1990 to review and report on federal program areas its work identified as high risk because of vulnerabilities to waste, fraud, abuse, and mismanagement. It reviews the current status of efforts to address these concerns. The six categories of…

Characterizing and Reaching High-Risk Drinkers Using Audience Segmentation

Science.gov (United States)

Moss, Howard B.; Kirby, Susan D.; Donodeo, Fred

2010-01-01

and couples living in fashionable neighborhoods on the urban fringe. Almost 65% of Cyber Millenials households are found in the Pacific and Middle Atlantic regions of the U.S. Additional consumer behaviors of the Cyber Millenials and other segments are also described. Conclusions Audience segmentation can assist in identifying and describing target audience segments, as well as identifying places where segments congregate on- or offline. This information can be helpful for recruiting subjects for alcohol prevention research, as well as planning health promotion campaigns. Through commercial data about high-risk drinkers as “consumers,” planners can develop interventions that have heightened salience in terms of opportunities, perceptions, and motivations, and have better media channel identification. PMID:19413650

An assessment of high risk sexual behaviour and HIV transmission ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An assessment of high risk sexual behaviour and HIV transmission among migrant oil workers in the Niger Delta area of Nigeria. ... questionnaires to evaluate key high – risk sexual behavioral parameters such as multiplicity of sexual partners, bisexuality (closet homosexuality), high grade sexual behaviour and lesbianism.

Alcohol consumption and high risk sexual behaviour among female ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Alcohol consumption has been associated with high risk sexual behaviour among key populations such as female sex workers. We explored the drivers of alcohol consumption and its relationship to high risk sexual behaviour. Participants were drawn from a cohort of 1 027 women selected from 'hot spots' in the suburbs of ...

Serving high-risk foods in a high-risk setting: survey of hospital food service practices after an outbreak of listeriosis in a hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Cokes, Carolyn; France, Anne Marie; Reddy, Vasudha; Hanson, Heather; Lee, Lillian; Kornstein, Laura; Stavinsky, Faina; Balter, Sharon

2011-04-01

Prepared ready-to-eat salads and ready-to-eat delicatessen-style meats present a high risk for Listeria contamination. Because no foodborne illness risk management guidelines exist specifically for US hospitals, a survey of New York City (NYC) hospitals was conducted to characterize policies and practices after a listeriosis outbreak occurred in a NYC hospital. From August through October 2008, a listeriosis outbreak in a NYC hospital was investigated. From February through April 2009, NYC's 61 acute-care hospitals were asked to participate in a telephone survey regarding food safety practices and policies, specifically service of high-risk foods to patients at increased risk for listeriosis. Five patients with medical conditions that put them at high risk for listeriosis had laboratory-confirmed Listeria monocytogenes infection. The Listeria outbreak strain was isolated from tuna salad prepared in the hospital. Fifty-four (89%) of 61 hospitals responded to the survey. Overall, 81% of respondents reported serving ready-to-eat deli meats to patients, and 100% reported serving prepared ready-to-eat salads. Pregnant women, patients receiving immunosuppressive drugs, and patients undergoing chemotherapy were served ready-to-eat deli meats at 77%, 59%, and 49% of hospitals, respectively, and were served prepared ready-to-eat salads at 94%, 89%, and 73% of hospitals, respectively. Only 4 (25%) of 16 respondents reported having a policy that ready-to-eat deli meats must be heated until steaming hot before serving. Despite the potential for severe outcomes of Listeria infection among hospitalized patients, the majority of NYC hospitals had no food preparation policies to minimize risk. Hospitals should implement policies to avoid serving high-risk foods to patients at risk for listeriosis.

Screening for breast cancer in a high-risk series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woodard, E.D.; Hempelmann, L.H.; Janus, J.; Logan, W.; Dean, P.

1982-01-01

A unique cohort of women at increased risk of breast cancer because of prior X-ray treatment of acute mastitis and their selected high-risk siblings were offered periodic breast cancer screening including physical examination of the breasts, mammography, and thermography. Twelve breast cancers were detected when fewer than four would have been expected based on age-specific breast cancer detection rates from the National Cancer institute/American Cancer Society Breast Cancer Demonstration Detection Projects. Mammograpy was positive in all cases but physical examination was positive in only three cases. Thermography was an unreliable indicator of disease. Given the concern over radiation-induced risk, use of low-dose technique and of criteria for participation that select women at high risk of breast cancer will maximize the benefit/risk ratio for mammography screening

Vigilance and iconic memory in children at high risk for alcoholism.

Science.gov (United States)

Steinhauer, S R; Locke, J; Hill, S Y

1997-07-01

Previous studies report reduced visual event-related potential (ERP) amplitudes in young males at high risk for alcoholism. These findings could involve difficulties at several stages of visual processing. This study was aimed at examining vigilance performance and iconic memory functions in children at high risk or low risk for alcoholism. Sustained vigilance and retrieval from iconic memory were evaluated in 54 (29 male) white children at high risk and 47 (25 male) white children at low risk for developing alcoholism. Children were also grouped according to gender and age (younger: 8-12 years; older: 13-18 years). No differences is visual sensitivity, response criterion or reaction time were associated with risk status on the degraded visual stimulus version of the Continuous Performance Test. For the Span of Apprehension, no differences were found due to risk status when only 1 or 5 distractors were presented, although with 9 distractors a significant effect of risk status was found when it was tested as an interaction with gender and age (decreased accuracy for older high-risk boys compared to older low-risk boys). These findings suggest that ERP deviations are not attributable to stages of visual processing deficits, but represent difficulty involving more complex utilization of information. Implications of these results are that the differences between high- and low-risk children that have been reported previously for visual ERP components (e.g., P300) are not attributable to deficits of attentional or iconic memory mechanisms.

On risk, leverage and banks: do highly leveraged banks take on excessive risk?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koudstaal, M.; van Wijnbergen, S.

2012-01-01

This paper deals with the relation between excessive risk taking and capital structure in banks. Examining a quarterly dataset of U.S. banks between 1993 and 2010, we find that equity is valued higher when more risky portfolios are chosen when leverage is high, and that more risk taking has a

Diagnosis and Management of High Risk Group for Gastric Cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, Hyuk; Kim, Nayoung

2015-01-01

Gastric cancer is associated with high morbidity and mortality worldwide. To reduce the socioeconomic burden related to gastric cancer, it is very important to identify and manage high risk group for gastric cancer. In this review, we describe the general risk factors for gastric cancer and define high risk group for gastric cancer. We discuss strategies for the effective management of patients for the prevention and early detection of gastric cancer. Atrophic gastritis (AG) and intestinal metaplasia (IM) are the most significant risk factors for gastric cancer. Therefore, the accurate selection of individuals with AG and IM may be a key strategy for the prevention and/or early detection of gastric cancer. Although endoscopic evaluation using enhanced technologies such as narrow band imaging-magnification, the serum pepsinogen test, Helicobacter pylori serology, and trefoil factor 3 have been evaluated, a gold standard method to accurately select individuals with AG and IM has not emerged. In terms of managing patients at high risk of gastric cancer, it remains uncertain whether H. pylori eradication reverses and/or prevents the progression of AG and IM. Although endoscopic surveillance in high risk patients is expected to be beneficial, further prospective studies in large populations are needed to determine the optimal surveillance interval. PMID:25547086

Coupling HYDRUS-1D with ArcGIS to estimate pesticide accumulation and leaching risk on a regional basis.

Science.gov (United States)

Anlauf, Ruediger; Schaefer, Jenny; Kajitvichyanukul, Puangrat

2018-07-01

HYDRUS-1D is a well-established reliable instrument to simulate water and pesticide transport in soils. It is, however, a point-specific model which is usually used for site-specific simulations. Aim of the investigation was the development of pesticide accumulation and leaching risk maps for regions combining HYDRUS-1D as a model for pesticide fate with regional data in a geographical information system (GIS). It was realized in form of a python tool in ArcGIS. Necessary high resolution local soil information, however, is very often not available. Therefore, worldwide interpolated 250-m-grid soil data (SoilGrids.org) were successfully incorporated to the system. The functionality of the system is shown by examples from Thailand, where example regions that differ in soil properties and climatic conditions were exposed in the model system to pesticides with different properties. A practical application of the system will be the identification of areas where measures to optimize pesticide use should be implemented with priority. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The polygenic risk for bipolar disorder influences brain regional function relating to visual and default state processing of emotional information.

Science.gov (United States)

Dima, Danai; de Jong, Simone; Breen, Gerome; Frangou, Sophia

2016-01-01

Genome-wise association studies have identified a number of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), each of small effect, associated with risk to bipolar disorder (BD). Several risk-conferring SNPs have been individually shown to influence regional brain activation thus linking genetic risk for BD to altered brain function. The current study examined whether the polygenic risk score method, which models the cumulative load of all known risk-conferring SNPs, may be useful in the identification of brain regions whose function may be related to the polygenic architecture of BD. We calculated the individual polygenic risk score for BD (PGR-BD) in forty-one patients with the disorder, twenty-five unaffected first-degree relatives and forty-six unrelated healthy controls using the most recent Psychiatric Genomics Consortium data. Functional magnetic resonance imaging was used to define task-related brain activation patterns in response to facial affect and working memory processing. We found significant effects of the PGR-BD score on task-related activation irrespective of diagnostic group. There was a negative association between the PGR-BD score and activation in the visual association cortex during facial affect processing. In contrast, the PGR-BD score was associated with failure to deactivate the ventromedial prefrontal region of the default mode network during working memory processing. These results are consistent with the threshold-liability model of BD, and demonstrate the usefulness of the PGR-BD score in identifying brain functional alternations associated with vulnerability to BD. Additionally, our findings suggest that the polygenic architecture of BD is not regionally confined but impacts on the task-dependent recruitment of multiple brain regions.

Highly Enhanced Risk Management Emergency Satellite

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dalmeir, Michael; Gataullin, Yunir; Indrajit, Agung

HERMES (Highly Enhanced Risk Management Emergency Satellite) is potential European satellite mission for global flood management, being implemented by Technical University Munich and European Space Agency. With its main instrument - a reliable and precise Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) antenna...

REDUCING THE IMPACT OF RADIATION FACTORS IN AREAS WITH HIGH LEVEL OF RISK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. A. Zaredinov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the modern problems of radioecology. The study reveals the problems of radioecological situation in some regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The main attention of the authors is paid to the ecologically hazardous objects in the uranium mining industry. The characteristics of wastes from uranium mining and stages of development of the mining industry are described. The historical background of the accumulation of the wastes in dumps, the ore-bearing rocks, and other off-balance ores is given. The practical experience and directions radio-ecological safety are generalized, achieving improvements of the environmental quality in areas with high risk. In conclusion, the authors recommend carrying out some measures to reduce an impact of the radiation factor on human health and to stabilize the radioecological situation at the studied regions.

High familial risk for mood disorder is associated with low dorsolateral prefrontal cortex serotonin transporter binding

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frokjaer, Vibe G; Vinberg, Maj; Erritzoe, David

2009-01-01

at risk for developing depression. The aim of this study was to explore whether abnormalities in SERT might be present in healthy individuals with familial predisposition to mood disorder. Nine individuals at high familial risk (mean age 32.2+/-4.2 years) and 11 individuals at low risk (mean age 32......Mood disorders are elicited through a combination of genetic and environmental stress factors, and treatment with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors ameliorates depressive symptoms. Changes in the serotonin transporter (SERT) binding may therefore occur in depressive patients and in subjects.......4+/-5.0 years) for developing mood disorder were included. The subjects were healthy twins with or without a co-twin history of mood disorder identified by linking information from the Danish Twin Register and the Danish Psychiatric Central Register. Regional in vivo brain serotonin transporter binding...

Nitrogen removal in shallow groundwater below three arable land systems in a high nitrogen loading region

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, X.; Zhou, W.

2017-12-01

The Taihu Lake region (TLR) is one of the most intensive agricultural regions with high nitrogen (N) loading in eastern China. Large inputs of synthetic N fertilizer have led to a series of environmental problems including eutrophication of surface waters, nitrate (NO3-) pollution of groundwater. To fully evaluate the risk of NO3- on groundwater environments, it is necessary to know the natural NO3- removal ability. In this study, denitrification capacity was assessed for two years through measuring the concentration of different N species (NO3-, NH4+, TN, excess N2 and dissolved N2O) in groundwater below three typical agricultural land-use types in the TLR. The results suggested that the conversion of paddy field (PF) to vineyard (VY) and vegetable (VF) significantly increased the groundwater NO3-N concentration, but denitrification consumed 76%, 83% and 65% of the groundwater NO3-N in VY, VF and PF, respectively. Because of the low O2 and high DOC concentrations in groundwater, denitrification activity was high in the study sites, resulting in high excess N2 accumulation in groundwater, and the concentration even exceeded the total active N in the deep layer. The large amounts of excess N2 observed in the VY and VF over all the sample times indicated that considerable N was stored as gaseous N2 in groundwater and should not be ignored in balancing N budgets in aquifers where denitrification is high. Our results also demonstrated that the indirect N2O emission factor (EF5-g) in VY (0.0052)and VF (0.0057)was significantly higher than PF (0.0011)as well as higher than the IPCC default values (0.0025. In view of the increasing trend of paddy fields being converted to uplands combined with the low GWT in the TLR, we thus concluded that the risk of NO3- contamination in groundwater and indirect N2O emission will intensify below arable land.

Anal HPV genotypes and related displasic lesions in Italian and foreign born high-risk males.

Science.gov (United States)

Orlando, Giovanna; Beretta, Rosangela; Fasolo, M Michela; Amendola, Antonella; Bianchi, Silvia; Mazza, Francesca; Rizzardini, Giuliano; Tanzi, Elisabetta

2009-05-29

Anal intraepithelial neoplasia and anal cancer are closely related to infection from high-risk Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) genotypes. Since HPVs involved in disease progression are reported to vary by geographical regions, this study focuses on HPV genotypes spectrum in 289 males attending a Sexual Transmitted Diseases (STD) unit according to their nationality. Anal cytology, Digene Hybrid Capture Assay (HC2) and HPV genotyping were evaluated in 226 Italian (IT) and 63 foreign born (FB) subjects, recruited between January 2003 and December 2006. FB people were younger (median 32y-IQR 27-35 vs 36y-IQR 31-43, respectively; Mann-Whitney test por=atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS)) on anal cytology (95.0% vs 84.04%) (p=0.032; OR 3.61; 95% CI 1.04-1.23). HPV-16 is by far the most common genotype found in anal cytological samples independently from nationality while differences in distribution of other HPV genotypes were observed. The probability of infection from high-risk HPVs was higher in FB (OR 1.69; 95% CI 1.07-2.68) and is due to a higher rate of HPV-58 (OR 4.98; 95% CI 2.06-12.04), to a lower rate of HPV-11 (OR 0.35; 95% CI 0.16-0.77), to the presence of other high-risk genotypes (HPV-45, HPV-66, HPV-69). Multiple infections rate was high and comparable between IT and FB people. The relative contribution of each HPV genotype in the development of pre-neoplastic disease to an early age in the FB group cannot be argued by this study and more extensive epidemiological evaluations are needed to define the influence of each genotype and the association with the most prevalent high-risk HPVs on cytological intraepithelial lesions development.

High-risk factors of parotid lymph node metastasis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a case-control study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Hong-zhi; Cao, Cai-neng; Luo, Jing-wei; Yi, Jun-lin; Huang, Xiao-dong; Zhang, Shi-ping; Wang, Kai; Qu, Yuan; Xiao, Jian-ping; Li, Su-yan; Gao, Li; Xu, Guo-zhen

2016-01-01

Although parotid-sparing IMRT decreased the dose distribution of parotid, parotid region recurrence has been reported. Prophylactic irradiation in parotid area would be necessary in patients with high risk of parotid lymph node metastasis (PLNM). This study was to detect the high-risk factors of PLNM in nasopharyngeal carcinoma. This was a 1:2 case-control study. All patients in this study were newly diagnosed NPC with N2-3 classification from January 2005 to December 2012. Cases were 22 sides with ipsilateral PLNM. Controls were 44 patients who were randomly selected from N2-3 disease in database. 20/1096 (1.82 %) NPC patients were found PLNM. Sum of the longest diameter for multiple lymph nodes (SLD) in level II was larger in case group than that in control group (6.0 cm vs. 3.6 cm, p = 0.003). Level II lymph node necrosis, level Va/b involvement, and rare neck areas involvement were more common in case group (p = 0.016, p = 0.034, and p < 0.001, respectively). RPN, level III, and level IV metastases showed no significant difference between the two groups. Multivariate analysis in logistic regression showed that only SLD ≥5 cm in II area (OR = 4.11, p = 0.030) and rare neck areas involvement (OR = 3.95, p = 0.045) were associated with PLNM in NPC patients. PLNM was an uncommon event in NPC patients. SLD ≥5 cm in level II and involvement in rare-neck areas may be potentially high-risk factors for PLNM. Sparing parotid in IMRT was not recommended for NPC patients with high risks of PLNM

Risk forewarning of regional development sustainability based on a natural resources and environmental carrying index in China

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Jie; Wang, Yafei; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Li, Lijuan; Xu, Yong; Zhang, Wenzhong; Wang, Chuansheng; Xu, Weihua; Li, Jiuyi; Yu, Jianhui; Zhou, Kan

2017-02-01

It is a matter of public consensus that China's high growth rate has been achieved at the expense of natural resources and the environment, leading to serious risks to sustainability. This research, which proposes a theoretical model to forewarn of risks to regional developmental sustainability in China, constitutes the first empirical evaluation of this to be undertaken there. The results show that: (a) the areas at risk cover almost 43% of the land and 44% of the population of mainland China. In those areas, 83.56% of people at risk are threatened by the low carrying capacity of the environment and limited water resources. (b) With 70% of the total population living in "at risk" areas, urbanization zones remain as the primary category suffering from overload across China. Extensive industrialization has resulted in environmental pollution, which contributes the most to the forewarning status, while the secondary cause is found to be the special coupling of the scarcity of natural water resources and their inefficient use. In addition, most urban conglomerations suffer from pollution by industrial production and household consumption, which tends to extend to their surrounding agricultural areas. Extensive mineral exploitation in ecologically fragile areas has made them increasingly more vulnerable to disturbances from their neighboring resource-driven urban areas. The paper uses these findings to suggest how to intensify the special regulatory administration of resources and the environment, and to transform approaches to industrialization, in order to address sustainable development issues in developing countries.

High-risk facilities. Emergency management in nuclear, chemical and hazardous waste facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kloepfer, Michael

2012-01-01

The book on emergency management in high-risk facilities covers the following topics: Change in the nuclear policy, risk management of high-risk facilities as a constitutional problem - emergency management in nuclear facilities, operational mechanisms of risk control in nuclear facilities, regulatory surveillance responsibilities for nuclear facilities, operational mechanism of the risk control in chemical plants, regulatory surveillance responsibilities for chemical facilities, operational mechanisms of the risk control in hazardous waste facilities, regulatory surveillance responsibilities for hazardous waste facilities, civil law consequences in case of accidents in high-risk facilities, criminal prosecution in case of accidents in high-risk facilities, safety margins as site risk for emission protection facilities, national emergency management - strategic emergency management structures, warning and self-protection of the public in case of CBRN hazards including aspects of the psych-social emergency management.

Clinical outcomes of image guided radiation therapy (IGRT) with gold fiducial vaginal cuff markers for high-risk endometrial cancer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Monroe, Alan T.; Peddada, Anuj V. [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Penrose Cancer Center, Colorado Springs (United States); Pikaart, Dirk [Dept. of Gynecologic Oncology, Penrose Cancer Center, Colorado Springs (United States)

2013-06-15

Objective. To report two year clinical outcomes of image guided radiation therapy (IGRT) to the vaginal cuff and pelvic lymph nodes in a series of high-risk endometrial cancer patients. Methods . Twenty-six consecutive high-risk endometrial cancer patients requiring adjuvant radiation to the vaginal cuff and regional lymph nodes were treated with vaginal cuff fiducial-based IGRT. Seventeen (65%) received sequential chemotherapy, most commonly with a sandwich technique. Brachytherapy followed external radiation in 11 patients to a median dose of 18 Gy in 3 fractions. The median external beam dose delivered was 47.5 Gy in 25 fractions. Results. All 656 fractions were successfully imaged and treated. The median overall translational shift required for correction was 9.1 mm (standard deviation, 5.2 mm) relative to clinical set-up with skin tattoos. Shifts of 1 cm, 1.5 cm, and 2 cm or greater were performed in 43%, 14%, and 4% of patients, respectively. Acute grade 2 gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity occurred in eight patients (30%) and grade 3 toxicity occurred in one. At two years, there have been no local or regional failures and actuarial overall survival is 95%. Conclusion. Daily image guidance for high-risk endometrial cancer results in a low incidence of acute GI/genitourinary (GU) toxicity with uncompromised tumor control at two years. Vaginal cuff translations can be substantial and may possibly result in underdosing if not properly considered.

Clinical outcomes of image guided radiation therapy (IGRT) with gold fiducial vaginal cuff markers for high-risk endometrial cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)