Sample records for high rainfall tropics

  1. Relationships between High Impact Tropical Rainfall Events and Environmental Conditions (United States)

    Painter, C.; Varble, A.; Zipser, E. J.


    While rainfall increases as moisture and vertical motion increase, relationships between regional environmental conditions and rainfall event characteristics remain more uncertain. Of particular importance are long duration, heavy rain rate, and significant accumulation events that contribute sizable fractions of overall precipitation over short time periods. This study seeks to establish relationships between observed rainfall event properties and environmental conditions. Event duration, rain rate, and rainfall accumulation are derived using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 3-hourly, 0.25° resolution rainfall retrieval from 2002-2013 between 10°N and 10°S. Events are accumulated into 2.5° grid boxes and matched to monthly mean total column water vapor (TCWV) and 500-hPa vertical motion (omega) in each 2.5° grid box, retrieved from ERA-interim reanalysis. Only months with greater than 3 mm/day rainfall are included to ensure sufficient sampling. 90th and 99th percentile oceanic events last more than 20% longer and have rain rates more than 20% lower than those over land for a given TCWV-omega condition. Event duration and accumulation are more sensitive to omega than TCWV over oceans, but more sensitive to TCWV than omega over land, suggesting system size, propagation speed, and/or forcing mechanism differences for land and ocean regions. Sensitivities of duration, rain rate, and accumulation to TCWV and omega increase with increasing event extremity. For 3B42 and ERA-Interim relationships, the 90th percentile oceanic event accumulation increases by 0.93 mm for every 1 Pa/min change in rising motion, but this increases to 3.7 mm for every 1 Pa/min for the 99th percentile. Over land, the 90th percentile event accumulation increases by 0.55 mm for every 1 mm increase in TCWV, whereas the 99th percentile increases by 0.90 mm for every 1 mm increase in TCWV. These changes in event accumulation are highly correlated with changes in event

  2. Variability in rainfall over tropical Australia during summer and relationships with the Bilybara High (United States)

    Reason, C. J. C.


    Variability in summer rainfall over tropical Australia, defined here as that part of the continent north of 25° S, and its linkages with regional circulation are examined. In particular, relationships with the mid-level anticyclone (termed the Bilybara High) that exists over the northwestern Australia/Timor Sea region between August and April are considered. This High forms to the southwest of the upper-level anticyclone via a balance between the upper-level divergence over the region of tropical precipitation maximum and planetary vorticity advection and moves south and strengthens during the spring and summer. It is shown that variations in the strength and position of the Bilybara High are related to anomalies in precipitation and temperature over large parts of tropical Australia as well as some areas in the south and southeast of the landmass. Some of the interannual variations in the High are related to ENSO, but there are also a number of neutral years with large anomalies in the High and hence in rainfall. On decadal time scales, a strong relationship exists between the leading mode of tropical Australian rainfall and the Bilybara High. On both interannual and decadal scales, the relationships between the High and the regional rainfall involve changes in the monsoonal northwesterlies blowing towards northern Australia, and further south, in the easterly trade winds over the region.

  3. Simulation of Tropical Rainfall Variability (United States)

    Bader, J.; Latif, M.


    The impact of sea surface temperature (SST) - especially the role of the tropical Atlantic meridional SST gradient and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation - on precipitation is investigated with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4/T42. Ensemble experiments - driven with observed SST - show that Atlantic SST has a significant influence on precipitation over West Africa and northeast Brazil. SST sensitivity experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced or decreased by one Kelvin in certain ocean areas. Changing SST in the eastern tropical Atlantic caused only significant changes along the Guinea Coast, with a positive anomaly (SSTA) increasing rainfall and a negative SSTA reducing it. The response was nearly linear. Changing SST in other ocean areas caused significant changes over West Africa, especially in the Sahel area. The response is found to be non linear, with only negative SSTA leading to significant reduction in Sahel rainfall. Also, the impact of the SSTAs from the different ocean regions was not additive with respect to the rainfall. The influence of SST on precipitation over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) was also investigated. Three experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced/decreased or decreased/enhanced by one Kelvin in the North/South Atlantic and increased by two Kelvin in the Nino3 ocean area. All experiments caused significant changes over Nordeste, with an enhanced/reduced SST gradient in the Atlantic increasing/reducing rainfall. The response was nearly linear. The main effect of the Atlantic SST gradient was a shift of the ITCZ, caused by trade wind changes. The ''El Nino'' event generates a significant reduction in Nordeste rainfall. A significant positive SLP anomaly occurs in northeast Brazil which may be associated with the descending branch of the Walker circulation. Also a significant positive SLP over the Atlantic from 30S to 10N north occurs. This results in a reduced SLP

  4. Detecting Climate Variability in Tropical Rainfall (United States)

    Berg, W.


    A number of satellite and merged satellite/in-situ rainfall products have been developed extending as far back as 1979. While the availability of global rainfall data covering over two decades and encompassing two major El Niño events is a valuable resource for a variety of climate studies, significant differences exist between many of these products. Unfortunately, issues such as availability often determine the use of a product for a given application instead of an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the various products. Significant efforts have been made to address the impact of sparse sampling by satellite sensors of variable rainfall processes by merging various satellite and in-situ rainfall products. These combine high spatial and temporal frequency satellite infrared data with higher quality passive microwave observations and rain gauge observations. Combining such an approach with spatial and temporal averaging of the data can reduce the large random errors inherent in satellite rainfall estimates to very small levels. Unfortunately, systematic biases can and do result in artificial climate signals due to the underconstrained nature of the rainfall retrieval problem. Because all satellite retrieval algorithms make assumptions regarding the cloud structure and microphysical properties, systematic changes in these assumed parameters between regions and/or times results in regional and/or temporal biases in the rainfall estimates. These biases tend to be relatively small compared to random errors in the retrieval, however, when random errors are reduced through spatial and temporal averaging for climate applications, they become the dominant source of error. Whether or not such biases impact the results for climate studies is very much dependent on the application. For example, all of the existing satellite rainfall products capture the increased rainfall in the east Pacific associated with El Niño, however, the resulting tropical response to

  5. Enhanced Orographic Tropical Rainfall: An Study of the Colombia's rainfall (United States)

    Peñaranda, V. M.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Mesa, O. J.


    Convection in tropical regions may be enhanced by orographic barriers. The orographic enhancement is an intensification of rain rates caused by the forced lifting of air over a mountainous structure. Orographic heavy rainfall events, occasionally, comes along by flooding, debris flow and substantial amount of looses, either economics or human lives. Most of the heavy convective rainfall events, occurred in Colombia, have left a lot of victims and material damages by flash flooding. An urgent action is required by either scientific communities or society, helping to find preventive solutions against these kind of events. Various scientific literature reports address the feedback process between the convection and the local orographic structures. The orographic enhancement could arise by several physical mechanism: precipitation transport on leeward side, convection triggered by the forcing of air over topography, the seeder-feeder mechanism, among others. The identification of the physical mechanisms for orographic enhancement of rainfall has not been studied over Colombia. As far as we know, orographic convective tropical rainfall is just the main factor for the altitudinal belt of maximum precipitation, but the lack of detailed hydro-meteorological measurements have precluded a complete understanding of the tropical rainfall in Colombia and its complex terrain. The emergence of the multifractal theory for rainfall has opened a field of research which builds a framework for parsimonious modeling of physical process. Studies about the scaling behavior of orographic rainfall have found some modulating functions between the rainfall intensity probability distribution and the terrain elevation. The overall objective is to advance in the understanding of the orographic influence over the Colombian tropical rainfall based on observations and scaling-analysis techniques. We use rainfall maps, weather radars scans and ground-based rainfall data. The research strategy is

  6. Tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the CFSR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiande [I.M. System Group Inc. at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NOAA/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Fu, Xiouhua [University of Hawaii at Manoa, IPRC, SOEST, Honolulu, HI (United States); Seo, Kyong-Hwan [Pusan National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Busan (Korea, Republic of)


    While large-scale circulation fields from atmospheric reanalyses have been widely used to study the tropical intraseasonal variability, rainfall variations from the reanalyses are less focused. Because of the sparseness of in situ observations available in the tropics and strong coupling between convection and large-scale circulation, the accuracy of tropical rainfall from the reanalyses not only measures the quality of reanalysis rainfall but is also to some extent indicative of the accuracy of the circulations fields. This study analyzes tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the recently completed NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and its comparison with the widely used NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2). The R1 produces too weak rainfall variability while the R2 generates too strong westward propagation. Compared with the R1 and R2, the CFSR produces greatly improved tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability with the dominance of eastward propagation and more realistic amplitude. An analysis of the relationship between rainfall and large-scale fields using composites based on Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events shows that, in all three NCEP reanalyses, the moisture convergence leading the rainfall maximum is near the surface in the western Pacific but is above 925 hPa in the eastern Indian Ocean. However, the CFSR produces the strongest large-scale convergence and the rainfall from CFSR lags the column integrated precipitable water by 1 or 2 days while R1 and R2 rainfall tends to lead the respective precipitable water. Diabatic heating related to the MJO variability in the CFSR is analyzed and compared with that derived from large-scale fields. It is found that the amplitude of CFSR-produced total heating anomalies is smaller than that of the derived. Rainfall variability from the other two recently produced reanalyses, the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERAI), and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and

  7. Contribution of tropical cyclones to global rainfall (United States)

    Khouakhi, Abdou; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel; Smith, James


    Rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can have both devastating and beneficial impacts in different parts of the world. In this work, daily precipitation and historical six-hour best track TC datasets are used to quantify the contribution of TCs to global rainfall. We select 18607 rain gauge stations with at least 25 complete (at least 330 measurements per year) years between 1970 and 2014. We consider rainfall associated with TCs if the center of circulation of the storm passed within a given distance from the rain gauge and within a given time window. Spatial and temporal sensitivity analyses are performed with varying time windows (same day, ±1 day) and buffer radii (400 km and 500 km) around each rain gauge. Results highlight regional differences in TC-induced rainfall. The highest TC-induced precipitation totals (400 to 600+ mm/year) are prevalent along eastern Asia, western and northeastern Australia, and in the western Pacific islands. Stations along the southeast of the U.S. coast and surrounding the Gulf of Mexico receive up to 200 mm/year of TC rainfall. The highest annual fractional contributions of TCs to total rainfall (from 35 to 50%) are recorded in stations located in northwestern Australia, southeastern China, the northern Philippines and the southern Mexico peninsula. Seasonally, the highest proportions (40 to 50%) are recorded along eastern Australia and Mauritius in winter, and in eastern Asia and Mexico in summer and autumn. Analyses of the relative contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall using annual maximum (AM) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) approaches indicate notable differences among regions. The highest TC-AM rainfall proportions (45 to 60%) are found in stations located in Japan, eastern China, the Philippines, eastern and western Australia. Substantial contributions (25 to 40% of extreme rainfall) are also recorded in stations located along the U.S. East Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Mexico peninsula. We find similar

  8. On the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM): Bringing NASA's Earth System Science Program to the Classroom (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall


    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission is the first mission dedicated to measuring tropical and subtropical rainfall using a variety of remote sensing instrumentation, including the first spaceborne rain-measuring radar. Since the energy released when tropical rainfall occurs is a primary "fuel" supply for the weather and climate "engine"; improvements in computer models which predict future weather and climate states may depend on better measurements of global tropical rainfall and its energy. In support of the STANYS conference theme of Education and Space, this presentation focuses on one aspect of NASA's Earth Systems Science Program. We seek to present an overview of the TRMM mission. This overview will discuss the scientific motivation for TRMM, the TRMM instrument package, and recent images from tropical rainfall systems and hurricanes. The presentation also targets educational components of the TRMM mission in the areas of weather, mathematics, technology, and geography that can be used by secondary school/high school educators in the classroom.

  9. Rainfall interception from a lowland tropical rainforest in Brunei (United States)

    Dykes, A. P.


    Results from a programme of throughfall measurements in a lowland tropical rainforest in Brunei, northwest Borneo, indicate that interception losses amount to 18% of the gross incident rainfall. The high annual rainfall experienced by the study area results in annual interception losses of around 800 mm, which may result in total annual evapotranspiration losses significantly higher than in other rainforest locations. An improved version of Gash's analytical interception model is tested on the available data using assumed values for the "forest" parameters, and is found to predict interception losses extremely well. The model predictions are based on an estimated evaporation rate during rainfall of 0.71 mm h -1. This is significantly higher than has been reported in other tropical studies. It is concluded that these results are distinctive when compared with previous results from rainforests, and that further, detailed work is required to establish whether the enhanced evaporation rate is due to advective effects associated with the maritime setting of the study area.

  10. Tropical influence on Euro-Asian autumn rainfall variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariotti, A. [University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); ENEA, Rome (Italy); Ballabrera-Poy, J. [University of Maryland, ESSIC, College Park, MD (United States); Zeng, N. [University of Maryland, ESSIC, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Meteorology,, College Park, MD (United States)


    The connection between autumn rainfall variability in the Euro-Asian domain and tropical climate is documented using state-of-the-art global observational datasets and re-analyses. Results suggest a robust statistical relationship between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and autumn rainfall in parts of southwest Europe, northern Africa and southwest Asia. The correlation between area-mean anomalies over this region (P{sub ea}) and the NINO3.4 index is 0.68, stationary over the last 50 years. Global ENSO-like tropical climate anomalies are observed in conjunction with P{sub ea} anomalies confirming the relationship found with the NINO3.4 index. Overall, the connection with Indo-Pacific variability is stronger than that with the eastern Pacific.While rainfall anomalies in southwest Europe and southwest Asia appear to largely co-vary as one pattern under the influence of ENSO, our results suggest that different mechanisms may be contributing to the observed anomalies. In the North Atlantic/European region, it is speculated that while a PNA-like mode maybe the prevailing teleconnection mechanism for high P{sub ea}, for low P{sub ea} tropical Atlantic ENSO related SST anomalies may be playing a more relevant role forcing northeastward propagating Rossby waves. Over southwest Asia, a more direct connection to the Indo-Pacific region is suggested by the upper air anomaly observed over southern Asia, possibly the Rossby wave response to enhanced heating in the Indian Ocean. (orig.)

  11. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Future of Rainfall Estimation from Space (United States)

    Kakar, Ramesh; Adler, Robert; Smith, Eric; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)


    Tropical rainfall is important in the hydrological cycle and to the lives and welfare of humans. Three-fourths of the energy that drives the atmospheric wind circulation comes from the latent heat released by tropical precipitation. Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics, NASA for the U.S.A. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of a satellite mission to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated latent heat release. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched on November 27, 1997, and data from all the instruments first became available approximately 30 days after launch. Since then, much progress has been made in the calibration of the sensors, the improvement of the rainfall algorithms and applications of these results to areas such as Data Assimilation and model initialization. TRMM has reduced the uncertainty of climatological rainfall in tropics by over a factor of two, therefore establishing a standard for comparison with previous data sets and climatologies. It has documented the diurnal variation of precipitation over the oceans, showing a distinct early morning peak and this satellite mission has shown the utility of precipitation information for the improvement of numerical weather forecasts and climate modeling. This paper discusses some promising applications using TRMM data and introduces a measurement concept being discussed by NASA/NASDA and ESA for the future of rainfall estimation from space.

  12. Remote sensing entropy to assess the sustainability of rainfall in tropical catchment (United States)

    Mahmud, M. R.; Reba, M. N. M.; Wei, J. S.; Razak, N. H. Abdul


    This study demonstrated the utility of entropy computation using the satellite precipitation remote sensing data to assess the sustainability of rainfall in tropical catchments. There were two major issues need to be anticipated in monitoring the tropical catchments; first is the frequent monitoring of the rainfall and second is the appropriate indicator that sensitive to rainfall pattern changes or disorder. For the first issue, the use of satellite remote sensing precipitation data is suggested. Meanwhile for the second issue, the utilization of entropy concept in interpreting the disorder of temporal rainfall can be used to assess the sustain ability had been successfully adopted in some studies. Therefore, we hypothesized that the use of satellite precipitation as main data to compute entropy can be a novel tool in anticipating the above-mentioned conflict earlier. The remote sensing entropy results and in-situ river level showed good agreement indicating its reliability. 72% of the catchment has moderate to good rainfall supply during normal or non-drought condition. However, our result showed that the catchments were highly sensitive to drought especially in the west coast and southern part of the Peninsular Malaysia. High resiliency was identified in the east coast. We summarized that the proposed entropy-quantity scheme was a useful tool for cost-effective, quick, and operational sustainability assessment This study demonstrated the utility of entropy computation using the satellite precipitation remote sensing data to assess the sustainability of rainfall in tropical catchments.

  13. Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)


    The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

  14. Monsoon rainfall over India in June and link with northwest tropical pacific - June ISMR and link with northwest tropical pacific (United States)

    Surendran, Sajani; Gadgil, Sulochana; Rajendran, Kavirajan; Varghese, Stella Jes; Kitoh, Akio


    Recent years have witnessed large interannual variation of all-India rainfall (AIR) in June, with intermittent large deficits and excesses. Variability of June AIR is found to have the strongest link with variation of rainfall over northwest tropical Pacific (NWTP), with AIR deficit (excess) associated with enhancement (suppression) of NWTP rainfall. This association is investigated using high-resolution Meteorological Research Institute model which shows high skill in simulating important features of Asian summer monsoon, its variability and the inverse relationship between NWTP rainfall and AIR. Analysis of the variation of NWTP rainfall shows that it is associated with a change in the latitudinal position of subtropical westerly jet over the region stretching from West of Tibetan Plateau (WTP) to NWTP and the phase of Rossby wave steered in it with centres over NWTP and WTP. In years with large rainfall excess/deficit, the strong link between AIR and NWTP rainfall exists through differences in Rossby wave phase steered in the jet. The positive phase of the WTP-NWTP pattern, with troughs over WTP and west of NWTP, tends to be associated with increased rainfall over NWTP and decreased AIR. This scenario is reversed in the opposite phase. Thus, the teleconnection between NWTP rainfall and AIR is a manifestation of the difference in the phase of Rossby wave between excess and deficit years, with centres over WTP and NWTP. This brings out the importance of prediction of phase of Rossby waves over WTP and NWTP in advance, for prediction of June rainfall over India.

  15. Temperature and rainfall interact to control carbon cycling in tropical forests. (United States)

    Taylor, Philip G; Cleveland, Cory C; Wieder, William R; Sullivan, Benjamin W; Doughty, Christopher E; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Townsend, Alan R


    Tropical forests dominate global terrestrial carbon (C) exchange, and recent droughts in the Amazon Basin have contributed to short-term declines in terrestrial carbon dioxide uptake and storage. However, the effects of longer-term climate variability on tropical forest carbon dynamics are still not well understood. We synthesised field data from more than 150 tropical forest sites to explore how climate regulates tropical forest aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and organic matter decomposition, and combined those data with two existing databases to explore climate - C relationships globally. While previous analyses have focused on the effects of either temperature or rainfall on ANPP, our results highlight the importance of interactions between temperature and rainfall on the C cycle. In cool forests (forests (> 20 °C) it consistently enhanced both ANPP and decomposition. At the global scale, our analysis showed an increase in ANPP with rainfall in relatively warm sites, inconsistent with declines in ANPP with rainfall reported previously. Overall, our results alter our understanding of climate - C cycle relationships, with high precipitation accelerating rates of C exchange with the atmosphere in the most productive biome on earth. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  16. Validation of Satellite Estimates (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, TRMM for Rainfall Variability over the Pacific Slope and Coast of Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bolívar Erazo


    Full Text Available A dense rain-gauge network within continental Ecuador was used to evaluate the quality of various products of rainfall data over the Pacific slope and coast of Ecuador (EPSC. A cokriging interpolation method is applied to the rain-gauge data yielding a gridded product at 5-km resolution covering the period 1965–2015. This product is compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC dataset, the Climatic Research Unit–University of East Anglia (CRU dataset, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM/TMPA 3B43 Version 7 dataset and the ERA-Interim Reanalysis. The analysis reveals that TRMM data show the most realistic features. The relative bias index (Rbias indicates that TRMM data is closer to the observations, mainly over lowlands (mean Rbias of 7% but have more limitations in reproducing the rainfall variability over the Andes (mean Rbias of −28%. The average RMSE and Rbias of 68.7 and −2.8% of TRMM are comparable with the GPCC (69.8 and 5.7% and CRU (102.3 and −2.3% products. This study also focuses on the rainfall inter-annual variability over the study region which experiences floods that have caused high economic losses during extreme El Niño events. Finally, our analysis evaluates the ability of TRMM data to reproduce rainfall events during El Niño years over the study area and the large basins of Esmeraldas and Guayas rivers. The results show that TRMM estimates report reasonable levels of heavy rainfall detection (for the extreme 1998 El Niño event over the EPSC and specifically towards the center-south of the EPSC (Guayas basin but present underestimations for the moderate El Niño of 2002–2003 event and the weak 2009–2010 event. Generally, the rainfall seasonal features, quantity and long-term climatology patterns are relatively well estimated by TRMM.

  17. Multisite rainfall downscaling and disaggregation in a tropical urban area (United States)

    Lu, Y.; Qin, X. S.


    A systematic downscaling-disaggregation study was conducted over Singapore Island, with an aim to generate high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall data under future climate-change conditions. The study consisted of two major components. The first part was to perform an inter-comparison of various alternatives of downscaling and disaggregation methods based on observed data. This included (i) single-site generalized linear model (GLM) plus K-nearest neighbor (KNN) (S-G-K) vs. multisite GLM (M-G) for spatial downscaling, (ii) HYETOS vs. KNN for single-site disaggregation, and (iii) KNN vs. MuDRain (Multivariate Rainfall Disaggregation tool) for multisite disaggregation. The results revealed that, for multisite downscaling, M-G performs better than S-G-K in covering the observed data with a lower RMSE value; for single-site disaggregation, KNN could better keep the basic statistics (i.e. standard deviation, lag-1 autocorrelation and probability of wet hour) than HYETOS; for multisite disaggregation, MuDRain outperformed KNN in fitting interstation correlations. In the second part of the study, an integrated downscaling-disaggregation framework based on M-G, KNN, and MuDRain was used to generate hourly rainfall at multiple sites. The results indicated that the downscaled and disaggregated rainfall data based on multiple ensembles from HadCM3 for the period from 1980 to 2010 could well cover the observed mean rainfall amount and extreme data, and also reasonably keep the spatial correlations both at daily and hourly timescales. The framework was also used to project future rainfall conditions under HadCM3 SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. It was indicated that the annual rainfall amount could reduce up to 5% at the end of this century, but the rainfall of wet season and extreme hourly rainfall could notably increase.

  18. Linking Vital Rates of Landbirds on a Tropical Island to Rainfall and Vegetation Greenness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James F Saracco

    Full Text Available Remote tropical oceanic islands are of high conservation priority, and they are exemplified by range-restricted species with small global populations. Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall and plant productivity may be important in driving dynamics of these species. Yet, little is known about environmental influences on population dynamics for most islands and species. Here we leveraged avian capture-recapture, rainfall, and remote-sensed habitat data (enhanced vegetation index [EVI] to assess relationships between rainfall, vegetation greenness, and demographic rates (productivity, adult apparent survival of three native bird species on Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands: rufous fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons, bridled white-eye (Zosterops conspicillatus, and golden white-eye (Cleptornis marchei. Rainfall was positively related to vegetation greenness at all but the highest rainfall levels. Temporal variation in greenness affected the productivity of each bird species in unique ways. Predicted productivity of rufous fantail was highest when dry and wet season greenness values were high relative to site-specific 5-year seasonal mean values (i.e., relative greenness; while the white-eye species had highest predicted productivity when relative greenness contrasted between wet and dry seasons. Survival of rufous fantail and bridled white eye was positively related to relative dry-season greenness and negatively related to relative wet-season greenness. Bridled white-eye survival also showed evidence of a positive response to overall greenness. Our results highlight the potentially important role of rainfall regimes in affecting population dynamics of species on oceanic tropical islands. Understanding linkages between rainfall, vegetation, and animal population dynamics will be critical for developing effective conservation strategies in this and other regions where the seasonal timing, extent, and variability of rainfall is expected to change in the

  19. The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward; Pierce, Harold; Adler, Robert


    Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.

  20. Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites. (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.


    Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an 11-yr period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and interannual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important.To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444-km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain-rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared with those for nontropical cyclone systems.The main results of this study indicate that 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maximum tropical cyclone rainfall is poleward (5°-10° latitude depending on longitude) of the maximum nontropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% off the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the Intertropical Convergence Zone; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Niño years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

  1. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission: Monitoring the Global Tropics for 3 Years and Beyond. 1.1 (United States)

    Shepherd, Marshall; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)


    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) was launched in November 1997 as a joint U.S.-Japanese mission to advance understanding of the global energy and water cycle by providing distributions of rainfall and latent heating over the global tropics. As a part of NASA's Earth System Enterprise, TRMM seeks to understand the mechanisms through which changes in tropical rainfall influence global circulation. Additionally, a goal is to improve the ability to model these processes in order to predict global circulations and rainfall variability at monthly and longer time scales. Such understanding has implications for assessing climate processes related to El Nino/La Nina and Global Warming. TRMM has also provided unexpected and exciting new knowledge and applications in areas related to hurricane monitoring, lightning, pollution, hydrology, and other areas. This CD-ROM includes a self-contained PowerPoint presentation that provides an overview of TRMM and significant science results; a set of data movies or animation; and listings of current TRMM-related publications in the literature.

  2. Soil water storage, rainfall and runoff relationships in a tropical dry forest catchment (United States)

    Farrick, Kegan K.; Branfireun, Brian A.


    In forested catchments, the exceedance of rainfall and antecedent water storage thresholds is often required for runoff generation, yet to our knowledge these threshold relationships remain undescribed in tropical dry forest catchments. We, therefore, identified the controls of streamflow activation and the timing and magnitude of runoff in a tropical dry forest catchment near the Pacific coast of central Mexico. During a 52 day transition phase from the dry to wet season, soil water movement was dominated by vertical flow which continued until a threshold soil moisture content of 26% was reached at 100 cm below the surface. This satisfied a 162 mm storage deficit and activated streamflow, likely through lateral subsurface flow pathways. High antecedent soil water conditions were maintained during the wet phase but had a weak influence on stormflow. We identified a threshold value of 289 mm of summed rainfall and antecedent soil water needed to generate >4 mm of stormflow per event. Above this threshold, stormflow response and magnitude was almost entirely governed by rainfall event characteristics and not antecedent soil moisture conditions. Our results show that over the course of the wet season in tropical dry forests the dominant controls on runoff generation changed from antecedent soil water and storage to the depth of rainfall.

  3. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Vern Suomi 's Vital Role (United States)

    Simpson, Joanne; Kummerow, Christian


    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission was a new concept of measuring rainfall over the global tropics using a combination of instruments, including the first weather radar to be flown in space. An important objective of the mission was to obtain profiles of latent heat in order to initialize large-scale circulation models and to understand the relationship between short-term climate changes in relation to rainfall variability. The idea originated in the early 1980's from scientists at the Goddard Space Flight Center/NASA who had been involved with attempts to measure rain with a passive microwave instrument on Nimbus 5 and had compared its results with rain falling in the area covered by the GATE1 radar ships. Using an imaginary satellite flying over the GATE ships, scientists showed that a satellite with an inclined orbit of 30-35 degrees could obtain monthly rainfalls with a sampling error of less than 10 percent over 5 degree by 5 degree areas. The Japanese proposed that they could build a nadir-scanning rain radar for the satellite. Vern Suomi was excited by this mission from the outset, since he recognized the great importance of adequate rainfall measurements over the tropical oceans. He was a charter member of the Science Steering Team and prepared a large part of the Report. While the mission attracted strong support in the science community, it was opposed by some of the high-level NASA management who feared its competition for funds with some much larger Earth Science satellites. Vern was able to overcome this opposition and to generate Congressional support, so that the Project finally got underway on both sides of the Pacific in 1991. The paper will discuss the design of the satellite, its data system and ground validation program. TP.NM was successfully launched in late 1997. Early results will be described. 1 GATE stands for GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment and GARP stands for Global Atmospheric Research Program.

  4. Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics (United States)

    Sreekanth, T. S.

    Large Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics begin{center} begin{center} Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) , and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar, Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT Micro-physical parameters of rainfall such as rain drop size & fall speed distribution, mass weighted mean diameter, Total no. of rain drops, Normalisation parameters for rain intensity, maximum & minimum drop diameter from different rain intensity ranges, from both stratiform and convective rain events were analysed. Convective -Stratiform classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill was also used. Events which cannot be included in both types are termed as 'mixed precipitation' and identified separately. For the three years 2011, 2012 & 2013, rain events from both convective & stratiform origin are identified from three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Micro-physical characterisation was done for each rain events and analysed. Ground based and radar observations were made and classification of stratiform and convective rainfall was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001). Radar bright band and non bright band analysis was done for confimation of stratifom and convective rain respectievely. Atmospheric electric field data from electric field mill is also used for confirmation of convection during convective events. Statistical analyses revealed that the standard deviation of rain drop size in higher rain rates are higher than in lower rain rates. Normalised drop size distribution is ploted for selected events from both forms. Inter relations between various precipitation parameters were analysed in three

  5. Improving rainfall representation for large-scale hydrological modelling of tropical mountain basins (United States)

    Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Onof, Christian; Lavado, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup


    Errors in the forcing data are sometimes overlooked in hydrological studies even when they could be the most important source of uncertainty. The latter particularly holds true in tropical countries with short historical records of rainfall monitoring and remote areas with sparse rain gauge network. In such instances, alternative data such as the remotely sensed precipitation from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite have been used. These provide a good spatial representation of rainfall processes but have been established in the literature to contain volumetric biases that may impair the results of hydrological modelling or worse, are compensated during model calibration. In this study, we analysed precipitation time series from the TMPA (TRMM Multiple Precipitation Algorithm, version 6) against measurements from over 300 gauges in the Andes and Amazon regions of Peru and Ecuador. We found moderately good monthly correlation between the pixel and gauge pairs but a severe underestimation of rainfall amounts and wet days. The discrepancy between the time series pairs is particularly visible over the east side of the Andes and may be attributed to localized and orographic-driven high intensity rainfall, which the satellite product may have limited skills at capturing due to technical and scale issues. This consequently results in a low bias in the simulated streamflow volumes further downstream. In comparison, with the recently released TMPA, version 7, the biases reduce. This work further explores several approaches to merge the two sources of rainfall measurements, each of a different spatial and temporal support, with the objective of improving the representation of rainfall in hydrological simulations. The methods used are (1) mean bias correction (2) data assimilation using Kalman filter Bayesian updating. The results are evaluated by means of (1) a comparison of runoff ratios (the ratio of the total runoff and the total precipitation over an

  6. Assessing the Regional Frequency, Intensity, and Spatial Extent of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall (United States)

    Bosma, C.; Wright, D.; Nguyen, P.


    While the strength of a hurricane is generally classified based on its wind speed, the unprecedented rainfall-driven flooding experienced in southeastern Texas during Hurricane Harvey clearly highlights the need for better understanding of the hazards associated with extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. In this study, we seek to develop a framework for describing the joint probabilistic and spatio-temporal properties of extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. Furthermore, we argue that commonly-used terminology - such as the "500-year storm" - fail to convey the true properties of tropical cyclone rainfall occurrences in the United States. To quantify the magnitude and spatial extent of these storms, a database consisting of hundreds of unique rainfall volumetric shapes (or "voxels") was created. Each voxel is a four-dimensional object, created by connecting, in both space and time, gridded rainfall observations from the daily, gauge-based NOAA CPC-Unified precipitation dataset. Individual voxels were then associated with concurrent tropical cyclone tracks from NOAA's HURDAT-2 archive, to create distinct representations of the rainfall associated with every Atlantic tropical system making landfall over (or passing near) the United States since 1948. Using these voxels, a series of threshold-excess extreme value models were created to estimate the recurrence intervals of extreme tropical cyclone rainfall, both nationally and locally, for single and multi-day timescales. This voxel database also allows for the "indexing" of past events, placing recent extremes - such as the 50+ inches of rain observed during Hurricane Harvey - into a national context and emphasizing how rainfall totals that are rare at the point scale may be more frequent from a regional perspective.

  7. Multiscaling properties of tropical rainfall: Analysis of rain gauge datasets in Lesser Antilles island environment (United States)

    Bernard, Didier C.; Pasquier, Raphaël; Cécé, Raphaël; Dorville, Jean-François


    Changes in rainfall seem to be the main impact of climate change in the Caribbean area. The last conclusions of IPCC (2013), indicate that the end of this century will be marked by a rise of extreme rainfalls in tropical areas, linked with increase of the mean surface temperature. Moreover, most of the Lesser Antilles islands are characterized by a complex topography which tends to enhance the rainfall from synoptic disturbances by orographic effects. In the past five years, out of hurricanes passage, several extreme rainy events (approx. 16 mm in 6 minutes), including fatal cases, occurred in the Lesser Antilles Arc: in Guadeloupe (January 2011, May 2012 and 2013), in Martinique (May 2009, April 2011 and 2013), in Saint-Lucia (December 2013). These phenomena inducing floods, loss of life and material damages (agriculture sector and public infrastructures), inhibit the development of the islands. At this time, numerical weather prediction models as WRF, which are based on the equations of the atmospheric physics, do not show great results in the focused area (Bernard et al., 2013). Statistical methods may be used to examine explicitly local rainy updrafts, thermally and orographically induced at micro-scale. The main goal of the present insular tropical study is to characterize the multifractal symmetries occurring in the 6-min rainfall time series, registered since 2006 by the French Met. Office network weather stations. The universal multifractal model (Schertzer and Lovejoy, 1991) is used to define the statistical properties of measured rainfalls at meso-scale and micro-scale. This model is parametrized by a fundamental exponents set (H,a,C1,q) which are determined and compared with values found in the literature. The first three parameters characterize the mean pattern and the last parameter q, the extreme pattern. The occurrence ranges of multifractal regime are examined. The suggested links between the internal variability of the tropical rainy events and the

  8. Mixed memory, (non) Hurst effect, and maximum entropy of rainfall in the tropical Andes (United States)

    Poveda, Germán


    Diverse linear and nonlinear statistical parameters of rainfall under aggregation in time and the kind of temporal memory are investigated. Data sets from the Andes of Colombia at different resolutions (15 min and 1-h), and record lengths (21 months and 8-40 years) are used. A mixture of two timescales is found in the autocorrelation and autoinformation functions, with short-term memory holding for time lags less than 15-30 min, and long-term memory onwards. Consistently, rainfall variance exhibits different temporal scaling regimes separated at 15-30 min and 24 h. Tests for the Hurst effect evidence the frailty of the R/ S approach in discerning the kind of memory in high resolution rainfall, whereas rigorous statistical tests for short-memory processes do reject the existence of the Hurst effect. Rainfall information entropy grows as a power law of aggregation time, S( T) ˜ Tβ with = 0.51, up to a timescale, TMaxEnt (70-202 h), at which entropy saturates, with β = 0 onwards. Maximum entropy is reached through a dynamic Generalized Pareto distribution, consistently with the maximum information-entropy principle for heavy-tailed random variables, and with its asymptotically infinitely divisible property. The dynamics towards the limit distribution is quantified. Tsallis q-entropies also exhibit power laws with T, such that Sq( T) ˜ Tβ( q) , with β( q) ⩽ 0 for q ⩽ 0, and β( q) ≃ 0.5 for q ⩾ 1. No clear patterns are found in the geographic distribution within and among the statistical parameters studied, confirming the strong variability of tropical Andean rainfall.

  9. Modelling rainfall interception by a lowland tropical rain forest in northeastern Puerto Rico (United States)

    Schellekens, J.; Scatena, F. N.; Bruijnzeel, L. A.; Wickel, A. J.


    Recent surveys of tropical forest water use suggest that rainfall interception by the canopy is largest in wet maritime locations. To investigate the underlying processes at one such location—the Luquillo Experimental Forest in eastern Puerto Rico—66 days of detailed throughfall and above-canopy climatic data were collected in 1996 and analysed using the Rutter and Gash models of rainfall interception. Throughfall occurred on 80% of the days distributed over 80 rainfall events. Measured interception loss was 50% of gross precipitation. When Penman-Monteith based estimates for the wet canopy evaporation rate (0.11 mm h -1 on average) and a canopy storage of 1.15 mm were used, both models severely underestimated measured interception loss. A detailed analysis of four storms using the Rutter model showed that optimizing the model for the wet canopy evaporation component yielded much better results than increasing the canopy storage capacity. However, the Rutter model failed to properly estimate throughfall amounts during an exceptionally large event. The analytical model, on the other hand, was capable of representing interception during the extreme event, but once again optimizing wet canopy evaporation rates produced a much better fit than optimizing the canopy storage capacity. As such, the present results support the idea that it is primarily a high rate of evaporation from a wet canopy that is responsible for the observed high interception losses.

  10. An Updated TRMM Composite Climatology of Tropical Rainfall and Its Validation (United States)

    Wang, Jian-Jian; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Bolvin, David


    An updated 15-yr Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) composite climatology (TCC) is presented and evaluated. This climatology is based on a combination of individual rainfall estimates made with data from the primaryTRMMinstruments: theTRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the precipitation radar (PR). This combination climatology of passive microwave retrievals, radar-based retrievals, and an algorithm using both instruments simultaneously provides a consensus TRMM-based estimate of mean precipitation. The dispersion of the three estimates, as indicated by the standard deviation sigma among the estimates, is presented as a measure of confidence in the final estimate and as an estimate of the uncertainty thereof. The procedures utilized by the compositing technique, including adjustments and quality-control measures, are described. The results give a mean value of the TCC of 4.3mm day(exp -1) for the deep tropical ocean beltbetween 10 deg N and 10 deg S, with lower values outside that band. In general, the TCC values confirm ocean estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis, which is based on passive microwave results adjusted for sampling by infrared-based estimates. The pattern of uncertainty estimates shown by sigma is seen to be useful to indicate variations in confidence. Examples include differences between the eastern and western portions of the Pacific Ocean and high values in coastal and mountainous areas. Comparison of the TCC values (and the input products) to gauge analyses over land indicates the value of the radar-based estimates (small biases) and the limitations of the passive microwave algorithm (relatively large biases). Comparison with surface gauge information from western Pacific Ocean atolls shows a negative bias (16%) for all the TRMM products, although the representativeness of the atoll gauges of open-ocean rainfall is still in question.

  11. Large rainfall changes consistently projected over substantial areas of tropical land (United States)

    Chadwick, Robin; Good, Peter; Martin, Gill; Rowell, David P.


    Many tropical countries are exceptionally vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns, with floods or droughts often severely affecting human life and health, food and water supplies, ecosystems and infrastructure. There is widespread disagreement among climate model projections of how and where rainfall will change over tropical land at the regional scales relevant to impacts, with different models predicting the position of current tropical wet and dry regions to shift in different ways. Here we show that despite uncertainty in the location of future rainfall shifts, climate models consistently project that large rainfall changes will occur for a considerable proportion of tropical land over the twenty-first century. The area of semi-arid land affected by large changes under a higher emissions scenario is likely to be greater than during even the most extreme regional wet or dry periods of the twentieth century, such as the Sahel drought of the late 1960s to 1990s. Substantial changes are projected to occur by mid-century--earlier than previously expected--and to intensify in line with global temperature rise. Therefore, current climate projections contain quantitative, decision-relevant information on future regional rainfall changes, particularly with regard to climate change mitigation policy.

  12. Empirical studies of the microwave radiometric response to rainfall in the tropics and midlatitudes (United States)

    Petty, Grant W.; Katsaros, Kristina B.


    Results are presented from quantitative comparisons between satellite microwave radiometer observations and digital radar observations of equatorial convective cloud clusters and midlatitude frontal precipitation. Simultaneous data from the Winter Monsoon Experiment digital radar and the SMMR for December 1978 are analyzed. It is found that the most important differences between the microwave response to rainfall in the equatorial tropics and to stratiform rain in oceanic midlatitude fronts is caused by the different spatial characteristics of stratiform and convective rainfall and by the different background brightness temperature fields associated with tropical and midlatitude levels of atmospheric water vapor.

  13. Modelling rainfall interception by a lowland tropical rain forest in northeastern Puerto Rico.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schellekens, J.; Scatena, F.N.; Bruijnzeel, L.A.; Wickel, A.J.


    Recent surveys of tropical forest water use suggest that rainfall interception by the canopy is largest in wet maritime locations. To investigate the underlying processes at one such location-the Luquillo Experimental Forest in eastern Puerto Rico-66 days of detailed throughfall and above-canopy

  14. Observation-Based Estimates of Surface Cooling Inhibition by Heavy Rainfall under Tropical Cyclones

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jourdain, N; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Madec, G.; Menkes, C.E.; Vincent, E.M.; Jullien, E.; Barnier, B.

    Tropical cyclones drive intense ocean vertical mixing that explains most of the surface cooling observed in their wake (the "cold wake"). The influence of cyclonic rainfall on the cold wake at a global scale over the 2002-09 period is investigated...

  15. How temporal patterns in rainfall determine the geomorphology and carbon fluxes of tropical peatlands (United States)

    Hoyt, Alison M.; Gandois, Laure; Eri, Jangarun; Dommain, René; Abu Salim, Kamariah; Kai, Fuu Ming; Haji Su’ut, Nur Salihah; Harvey, Charles F.


    Tropical peatlands now emit hundreds of megatons of carbon dioxide per year because of human disruption of the feedbacks that link peat accumulation and groundwater hydrology. However, no quantitative theory has existed for how patterns of carbon storage and release accompanying growth and subsidence of tropical peatlands are affected by climate and disturbance. Using comprehensive data from a pristine peatland in Brunei Darussalam, we show how rainfall and groundwater flow determine a shape parameter (the Laplacian of the peat surface elevation) that specifies, under a given rainfall regime, the ultimate, stable morphology, and hence carbon storage, of a tropical peatland within a network of rivers or canals. We find that peatlands reach their ultimate shape first at the edges of peat domes where they are bounded by rivers, so that the rate of carbon uptake accompanying their growth is proportional to the area of the still-growing dome interior. We use this model to study how tropical peatland carbon storage and fluxes are controlled by changes in climate, sea level, and drainage networks. We find that fluctuations in net precipitation on timescales from hours to years can reduce long-term peat accumulation. Our mathematical and numerical models can be used to predict long-term effects of changes in temporal rainfall patterns and drainage networks on tropical peatland geomorphology and carbon storage. PMID:28607068

  16. How temporal patterns in rainfall determine the geomorphology and carbon fluxes of tropical peatlands. (United States)

    Cobb, Alexander R; Hoyt, Alison M; Gandois, Laure; Eri, Jangarun; Dommain, René; Abu Salim, Kamariah; Kai, Fuu Ming; Haji Su'ut, Nur Salihah; Harvey, Charles F


    Tropical peatlands now emit hundreds of megatons of carbon dioxide per year because of human disruption of the feedbacks that link peat accumulation and groundwater hydrology. However, no quantitative theory has existed for how patterns of carbon storage and release accompanying growth and subsidence of tropical peatlands are affected by climate and disturbance. Using comprehensive data from a pristine peatland in Brunei Darussalam, we show how rainfall and groundwater flow determine a shape parameter (the Laplacian of the peat surface elevation) that specifies, under a given rainfall regime, the ultimate, stable morphology, and hence carbon storage, of a tropical peatland within a network of rivers or canals. We find that peatlands reach their ultimate shape first at the edges of peat domes where they are bounded by rivers, so that the rate of carbon uptake accompanying their growth is proportional to the area of the still-growing dome interior. We use this model to study how tropical peatland carbon storage and fluxes are controlled by changes in climate, sea level, and drainage networks. We find that fluctuations in net precipitation on timescales from hours to years can reduce long-term peat accumulation. Our mathematical and numerical models can be used to predict long-term effects of changes in temporal rainfall patterns and drainage networks on tropical peatland geomorphology and carbon storage.

  17. Variations of Sea Surface Temperature, Wind Stress, and Rainfall over the Tropical Atlantic and South America. (United States)

    Nobre, Paulo; Srukla, J.


    Empirical orthogonal functions (E0Fs) and composite analyses are used to investigate the development of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns over the tropical Atlantic. The evolution of large-scale rainfall anomaly patterns over the equatorial Atlantic and South America are also investigated. 71e EOF analyses revealed that a pattern of anomalous SST and wind stress asymmetric relative to the equator is the dominant mode of interannual and longer variability over the tropical Atlantic. The most important findings of this study are as follows.Atmospheric circulation anomalies precede the development of basinwide anomalous SST patterns over the tropical Atlantic. Anomalous SST originate off the African coast simultaneously with atmospheric circulation anomalies and expand westward afterward. The time lag between wind stress relaxation (strengthening) and maximum SST warming (cooling) is about two months.Anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns over northern tropical Atlantic are phase locked to the seasonal cycle. Composite fields of SLP and wind stress over northern tropical Atlantic can be distinguished from random only within a few months preceding the March-May (MAM) season. Observational evidence is presented to show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the Pacific influences atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies over northern tropical Atlantic through atmospheric teleconnection patterns into higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.The well-known droughts over northeastern Brazil (Nordeste) are a local manifestation of a much larger-scale rainfall anomaly pattern encompassing the whole equatorial Atlantic and Amazon region. Negative rainfall anomalies to the south of the equator during MAM, which is the rainy season for the Nordeste region, are related to an early withdrawal of the intertropical convergence zone toward the warm SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic. Also, it is shown that precipitation anomalies

  18. Applying Spatially Distributed Rainfall to a Hydrological Model in a Tropical Watershed, Manoa Watershed, in Hawaii (United States)

    Huang, Y. F.; Tsang, Y. P.


    Rainfall in Hawaii is characterized with high spatial and temporal variability. In the south side of Oahu, the Manoa watershed, with an area of 11 km2, has the annual maximum rainfall of 3900mm and the minimum rainfall of 1000 mm. Despite this high spatial heterogeneity, the rain gage network seems insufficiently capture this pattern. When simulating stream flow and predicting floods with hydrological models in Hawaii, the model performance is often unsatisfactory because of inadequate representation of rainfall data. Longman et al. (in prep.) have developed the spatially distributed daily rainfall across the Hawaiian Islands by applying ordinary kriging, yet these data have not been applied to hydrological models. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to assess the streamflow simulation by applying spatially-distributed rainfall in the Manoa watershed. We first used point daily-rainfall at Lyon Arboretum from National Center of Environmental Information (NCEI) as the uniform rainfall input. Secondly, we summarized sub-watershed mean rainfall from the daily spatial-statistical rainfall. Both rainfall data are available from 1999 to 2014. The SWAT was set up for five-year warm-up, nine-year calibration, and two-year validation. The model parameters were calibrated and validated with four U.S. Geological Survey stream gages. We compared the calibrated watershed parameters, characteristics, and assess the streamflow hydrographs from these two rainfall inputs. The differences and improvement of using spatially distributed rainfall input in SWAT were discussed. In addition to improving the model by the representation of rainfall, this study helped us having a better understanding of the watershed hydrological response in Hawaii.

  19. A comparative study of mixed exponential and Weibull distributions in a stochastic model replicating a tropical rainfall process (United States)

    Abas, Norzaida; Daud, Zalina M.; Yusof, Fadhilah


    A stochastic rainfall model is presented for the generation of hourly rainfall data in an urban area in Malaysia. In view of the high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall within the tropical rain belt, the Spatial-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse model was used. The model, which is governed by the Neyman-Scott process, employs a reasonable number of parameters to represent the physical attributes of rainfall. A common approach is to attach each attribute to a mathematical distribution. With respect to rain cell intensity, this study proposes the use of a mixed exponential distribution. The performance of the proposed model was compared to a model that employs the Weibull distribution. Hourly and daily rainfall data from four stations in the Damansara River basin in Malaysia were used as input to the models, and simulations of hourly series were performed for an independent site within the basin. The performance of the models was assessed based on how closely the statistical characteristics of the simulated series resembled the statistics of the observed series. The findings obtained based on graphical representation revealed that the statistical characteristics of the simulated series for both models compared reasonably well with the observed series. However, a further assessment using the AIC, BIC and RMSE showed that the proposed model yields better results. The results of this study indicate that for tropical climates, the proposed model, using a mixed exponential distribution, is the best choice for generation of synthetic data for ungauged sites or for sites with insufficient data within the limit of the fitted region.

  20. Tropical Atlantic Contributions to Strong Rainfall Variability Along the Northeast Brazilian Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Hounsou-gbo


    Full Text Available Tropical Atlantic (TA Ocean-atmosphere interactions and their contributions to strong variability of rainfall along the Northeast Brazilian (NEB coast were investigated for the years 1974–2008. The core rainy seasons of March-April and June-July were identified for Fortaleza (northern NEB; NNEB and Recife (eastern NEB; ENEB, respectively. Lagged linear regressions between sea surface temperature (SST and pseudo wind stress (PWS anomalies over the entire TA and strong rainfall anomalies at Fortaleza and Recife show that the rainfall variability of these regions is differentially influenced by the dynamics of the TA. When the Intertropical Convergence Zone is abnormally displaced southward a few months prior to the NNEB rainy season, the associated meridional mode increases humidity and precipitation during the rainy season. Additionally, this study shows predictive effect of SST, meridional PWS, and barrier layer thickness, in the Northwestern equatorial Atlantic, on the NNEB rainfall. The dynamical influence of the TA on the June-July ENEB rainfall variability shows a northwestward-propagating area of strong, positively correlated SST from the southeastern TA to the southwestern Atlantic warm pool (SAWP offshore of Brazil. Our results also show predictive effect of SST, zonal PWS, and mixed layer depth, in the SAWP, on the ENEB rainfall.

  1. Final Scientific Report for "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiang, John C. H. [University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Wehner, Michael F. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)


    This is the final scientific report for grant DOE-FG02-08ER64588, "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall."The project investigates the role of the interhemispheric pattern in surface temperature – i.e. the contrast between the northern and southern temperature changes – in driving rapid changes to tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future climates. Previous observational and modeling studies have shown that the tropical rainband – the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over marine regions, and the summer monsoonal rainfall over land – are sensitive to the interhemispheric thermal contrast; but that the link between the two has not been applied to interpreting long-term tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future.The specific goals of the project were to i) develop dynamical mechanisms to explain the link between the interhemispheric pattern to abrupt changes of West African and Asian monsoonal rainfall; ii) Undertake a formal detection and attribution study on the interhemispheric pattern in 20th century climate; and iii) assess the likelihood of changes to this pattern in the future. In line with these goals, our project has produced the following significant results: 1.We have developed a case that suggests that the well-known abrupt weakening of the West African monsoon in the late 1960s was part of a wider co-ordinated weakening of the West African and Asian monsoons, and driven from an abrupt cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic sea surface temperature at the same time. Our modeling work suggests that the high-latitude North Atlantic cooling is effective in driving monsoonal weakening, through driving a cooling of the Northern hemisphere that is amplified by positive radiative feedbacks. 2.We have shown that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may have partially contributed to driving a progressively southward displacement of the Atlantic Intertropical

  2. Design and Performance of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Super NiCd Batteries (United States)

    Ahmad, Anisa J.; Rao, Gopalakrishna M.; Jallice, Doris E.; Moran Vickie E.


    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint mission between NASA and the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of Japan. The observatory is designed to monitor and study tropical rainfall and the associated release of energy that helps to power the global atmospheric circulation shaping both weather and climate around the globe. The spacecraft was launched from Japan on November 27,1997 via the NASDA H-2 launch vehicle. The TRMM Power Subsystem is a Peak Power Tracking system that can support the maximum TRMM load of 815 watts at the end of its three year life. The Power Subsystem consists of two 50 Ampere Hour Super NiCd batteries, Gallium Arsenide Solar Array and the Power System Electronics. This paper describes the TRMM Power Subsystem, battery design, cell and battery ground test performance, and in-orbit battery operations and performance.

  3. Attribution of Extreme Rainfall from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones to Climate Change for the Eastern United States (United States)

    Liu, M.; Yang, L.; Smith, J. A.; Vecchi, G. A.


    Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) is responsible for vast socioeconomic losses and fatalities. Landfalling tropical cyclones are an important element of extreme rainfall and flood peak distributions in the eastern United States. Record floods for USGS stream gauging stations over the eastern US are closely tied to landfalling hurricanes. A small number of storms account for the largest record floods, most notably Hurricanes Diane (1955) and Agnes (1972). The question we address is: if the synoptic conditions accompanying those hurricanes were to be repeated in the future, how would the thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties and associated extreme rainfall differ in response to climate change? We examine three hurricanes: Diane (1955), Agnes (1972) and Irene (2011), due to the contrasts in structure/evolution properties and their important roles in dictating the upper tail properties of extreme rainfall and flood frequency over eastern US. Extreme rainfall from Diane is more localized as the storm maintains tropical characteristics, while synoptic-scale vertical motion associated with extratropical transition is a central feature for extreme rainfall induced by Agnes. Our analyses are based on ensemble simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, considering combinations of different physics options (i.e., microphysics, boundary layer schemes). The initial and boundary conditions of WRF simulations for the present-day climate are using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20thCR). A sub-selection of GCMs is used, as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), to provide future climate projections. For future simulations, changes in model fields (i.e., temperature, humidity, geopotential height) between present-day and future climate are first derived and then added to the same 20thCR initial and boundary data used for the present-day simulations, and the ensemble is

  4. The bi-decadal rainfall cycle, Southern Annular Mode and tropical cyclones over the Limpopo River Basin, southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Malherbe, J


    Full Text Available contribution to rainfall by tropical cyclones and depressions. The findings suggest that a broadening of the Hadley circulation underpinned by an anomalous anticyclonic pattern to the east of southern Africa altered tropospheric steering flow, relative...

  5. Enhancement of seasonal prediction of East Asian summer rainfall related to the western tropical Pacific convection (United States)

    Lee, D. Y.; Ahn, J. B.; Yoo, J. H.


    The prediction skills of climate model simulations in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and East Asian region are assessed using the retrospective forecasts of seven state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for boreal summers (June-August) during the period 1983-2005, along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data. The prediction of summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia is difficult, while the WTP has a strong correlation between model prediction and observation. We focus on developing a new approach to further enhance the seasonal prediction skill for summer rainfall in East Asia and investigate the influence of convective activity in the WTP on East Asian summer rainfall. By analyzing the characteristics of the WTP convection, two distinct patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) developing and decaying modes are identified. Based on the multiple linear regression method, the East Asia Rainfall Index (EARI) is developed by using the interannual variability of the normalized Maritime continent-WTP indices (MPIs), as potentially useful predictors for rainfall prediction over East Asia, obtained from the above two main patterns. For East Asian summer rainfall, the EARI has superior performance to the East Asia summer monsoon index (EASMI) or each MP index (MPI). Therefore, the regressed rainfall from EARI also shows a strong relationship with the observed East Asian summer rainfall pattern. In addition, we evaluate the prediction skill of the East Asia reconstructed rainfall obtained by statistical-empirical approach using the cross-validated EARI from the individual models and their MME. The results show that the rainfalls reconstructed from simulations capture the general features of observed precipitation in East Asia quite well. This study convincingly demonstrates that rainfall prediction skill is considerably improved by using the statistical-empirical method compared to the dynamical models

  6. Global Lightning Climatology from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) (United States)

    Cecil, Daniel J.; Buechler, Dennis E.; Blakeslee, Richard J.


    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) has been collecting observations of total lightning in the global tropics and subtropics (roughly 38 deg S - 38 deg N) since December 1997. A similar instrument, the Optical Transient Detector, operated from 1995-2000 on another low earth orbit satellite that also saw high latitudes. Lightning data from these instruments have been used to create gridded climatologies and time series of lightning flash rate. These include a 0.5 deg resolution global annual climatology, and lower resolution products describing the annual cycle and the diurnal cycle. These products are updated annually. Results from the update through 2013 will be shown at the conference. The gridded products are publicly available for download. Descriptions of how each product can be used will be discussed, including strengths, weaknesses, and caveats about the smoothing and sampling used in various products.

  7. Contribution of landfalling tropical system rainfall to the hydroclimate of the eastern U.S. Corn Belt 1981–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivia Kellner


    Landfalling tropical system rainfall accounts for approximately 20% of the observed monthly rainfall during the tropical storm season (June–November across the eastern U.S. Corn Belt (1981–2012. Correlation between the annual number of landfalling tropical systems and annual yield by state results in no relationship, but correlation of August monthly observed rainfall by climate division to crop reporting district annual yields has a weak to moderate, statistically significant correlation in Ohio districts 30–60 and Indiana CRD 90. ANOVA analysis suggests that landfalling tropical rainfall may actually reduce yields in some state's climate divisions/crop reporting districts while increasing yield in others. Results suggest that there is a balance between landfalling tropical storms providing sufficient rainfall or too much rainfall to be of benefit to crops. Findings aim to provide information to producers, crop advisers, risk managers and commodity groups so that seasonal hurricane forecasts can potentially be utilized in planning for above or below normal precipitation during phenologically important portions of the growing season.

  8. Rainfall and Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Simulation, Prediction, and Projection (United States)

    Liu, Maofeng

    Rainfall and associated flood hazards are one of the major threats of tropical cyclones (TCs) to coastal and inland regions. The interaction of TCs with extratropical systems can lead to enhanced precipitation over enlarged areas through extratropical transition (ET). To achieve a comprehensive understanding of rainfall and ET associated with TCs, this thesis conducts weather-scale analyses by focusing on individual storms and climate-scale analyses by focusing on seasonal predictability and changing properties of climatology under global warming. The temporal and spatial rainfall evolution of individual storms, including Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Hanna (2008), and Hurricane Sandy (2012), is explored using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and a variety of hydrometeorological datasets. ET and Orographic mechanism are two key players in the rainfall distribution of Irene over regions experiencing most severe flooding. The change of TC rainfall under global warming is explored with the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Despite decreased TC frequency, FLOR projects increased landfalling TC rainfall over most regions of eastern United States, highlighting the risk of increased flood hazards. Increased storm rain rate is an important player of increased landfalling TC rainfall. A higher atmospheric resolution version of FLOR (HiFLOR) model projects increased TC rainfall at global scales. The increase of TC intensity and environmental water vapor content scaled by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation are two key factors that explain the projected increase of TC rainfall. Analyses on the simulation, prediction, and projection of the ET activity with FLOR are conducted in the North Atlantic. FLOR model exhibits good skills in simulating many aspects of present-day ET climatology. The 21st-century-projection under RCP4.5 scenario demonstrates the dominant role of ET

  9. Does δ18O of O2 record meridional shifts in tropical rainfall? (United States)

    Seltzer, Alan M.; Buizert, Christo; Baggenstos, Daniel; Brook, Edward J.; Ahn, Jinho; Yang, Ji-Woong; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.


    Marine sediments, speleothems, paleo-lake elevations, and ice core methane and δ18O of O2 (δ18Oatm) records provide ample evidence for repeated abrupt meridional shifts in tropical rainfall belts throughout the last glacial cycle. To improve understanding of the impact of abrupt events on the global terrestrial biosphere, we present composite records of δ18Oatm and inferred changes in fractionation by the global terrestrial biosphere (ΔɛLAND) from discrete gas measurements in the WAIS Divide (WD) and Siple Dome (SD) Antarctic ice cores. On the common WD timescale, it is evident that maxima in ΔɛLAND are synchronous with or shortly follow small-amplitude WD CH4 peaks that occur within Heinrich stadials 1, 2, 4, and 5 - periods of low atmospheric CH4 concentrations. These local CH4 maxima have been suggested as markers of abrupt climate responses to Heinrich events. Based on our analysis of the modern seasonal cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP)-weighted δ18O of terrestrial precipitation (the source water for atmospheric O2 production), we propose a simple mechanism by which ΔɛLAND tracks the centroid latitude of terrestrial oxygen production. As intense rainfall and oxygen production migrate northward, ΔɛLAND should decrease due to the underlying meridional gradient in rainfall δ18O. A southward shift should increase ΔɛLAND. Monsoon intensity also influences δ18O of precipitation, and although we cannot determine the relative contributions of the two mechanisms, both act in the same direction. Therefore, we suggest that abrupt increases in ΔɛLAND unambiguously imply a southward shift of tropical rainfall. The exact magnitude of this shift, however, remains under-constrained by ΔɛLAND.

  10. Does δ18O of O2 record meridional shifts in tropical rainfall?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Seltzer


    Full Text Available Marine sediments, speleothems, paleo-lake elevations, and ice core methane and δ18O of O2 (δ18Oatm records provide ample evidence for repeated abrupt meridional shifts in tropical rainfall belts throughout the last glacial cycle. To improve understanding of the impact of abrupt events on the global terrestrial biosphere, we present composite records of δ18Oatm and inferred changes in fractionation by the global terrestrial biosphere (ΔεLAND from discrete gas measurements in the WAIS Divide (WD and Siple Dome (SD Antarctic ice cores. On the common WD timescale, it is evident that maxima in ΔεLAND are synchronous with or shortly follow small-amplitude WD CH4 peaks that occur within Heinrich stadials 1, 2, 4, and 5 – periods of low atmospheric CH4 concentrations. These local CH4 maxima have been suggested as markers of abrupt climate responses to Heinrich events. Based on our analysis of the modern seasonal cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP-weighted δ18O of terrestrial precipitation (the source water for atmospheric O2 production, we propose a simple mechanism by which ΔεLAND tracks the centroid latitude of terrestrial oxygen production. As intense rainfall and oxygen production migrate northward, ΔεLAND should decrease due to the underlying meridional gradient in rainfall δ18O. A southward shift should increase ΔεLAND. Monsoon intensity also influences δ18O of precipitation, and although we cannot determine the relative contributions of the two mechanisms, both act in the same direction. Therefore, we suggest that abrupt increases in ΔεLAND unambiguously imply a southward shift of tropical rainfall. The exact magnitude of this shift, however, remains under-constrained by ΔεLAND.

  11. Forty years experience in developing and using rainfall simulators under tropical and Mediterranean conditions (United States)

    Pla-Sentís, Ildefonso; Nacci, Silvana


    Rainfall simulation has been used as a practical tool for evaluating the interaction of falling water drops on the soil surface, to measure both stability of soil aggregates to drop impact and water infiltration rates. In both cases it is tried to simulate the effects of natural rainfall, which usually occurs at very different, variable and erratic rates and intensities. One of the main arguments against the use of rainfall simulators is the difficulty to reproduce the size, final velocity and kinetic energy of the drops in natural rainfall. Since the early 70´s we have been developing and using different kinds of rainfall simulators, both at laboratory and field levels, and under tropical and Mediterranean soil and climate conditions, in flat and sloping lands. They have been mainly used to evaluate the relative effects of different land use and management, including different cropping systems, tillage practices, surface soil conditioning, surface covers, etc. on soil water infiltration, on runoff and on erosion. Our experience is that in any case it is impossible to reproduce the variable size distribution and terminal velocity of raindrops, and the variable changes in intensity of natural storms, under a particular climate condition. In spite of this, with the use of rainfall simulators it is possible to obtain very good information, which if it is properly interpreted in relation to each particular condition (land and crop management, rainfall characteristics, measurement conditions, etc.) may be used as one of the parameters for deducing and modelling soil water balance and soil moisture regime under different land use and management and variable climate conditions. Due to the possibility for a better control of the intensity of simulated rainfall and of the size of water drops, and the possibility to make more repeated measurements under very variable soil and land conditions, both in the laboratory and specially in the field, the better results have been

  12. On the relative role of fire and rainfall in determining vegetation patterns in tropical savannas: a simulation study (United States)

    Spessa, Allan; Fisher, Rosie


    Tropical savannas cover 18% of the world's land surface and are amongst the most productive terrestrial systems in the world. They comprise 15% of the total terrestrial carbon stock, with an estimated mean net primary productivity (NPP) of 7.2 tCha-1yr-1 or two thirds of NPP in tropical forests. Tropical savannas are the most frequently burnt biome, with fire return intervals in highly productive areas being typically 1-2 years. Fires shape vegetation species composition, tree to grass ratios and nutrient redistribution, as well as the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of trace gases, momentum and radiative energy. Tropical savannas are a major source of emissions, contributing 38 % of total annual CO2 from biomass burning, 30% CO, 19 % CH4 and 59 % NOx. Climatically, they occur in regions subject to a strongly seasonal ‘wet-dry' regime, usually under monsoonal control from the movement of the inter-tropical convergence zone. In general, rainfall during the prior wet season(s) determines the amount of grass fuel available for burning while the length of the dry season influences fuel moisture content. Rainfall in tropical savannas exhibits high inter-annual variability, and under future climate change, is projected to change significantly in much of Africa, South America and northern Australia. Process-based simulation models of fire-vegetation dynamics and feedbacks are critical for determining the impacts of wildfires under projected future climate change on i) ecosystem structure and function, and ii) emissions of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning. A new mechanistic global fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) has been designed to overcome many of the limitations in existing fire models set within Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). SPITFIRE has been applied in coupled mode globally and southern Africa, both as part of the LPJ DGVM. It has also been driven with MODIS burnt area data applied to sub-Saharan Africa, while coupled to the

  13. Impacts of the ENSO Modoki and other Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate-Drivers on African Rainfall. (United States)

    Preethi, B; Sabin, T P; Adedoyin, J A; Ashok, K


    The study diagnoses the relative impacts of the four known tropical Indo-Pacific drivers, namely, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Indian Ocean Basin-wide mode (IOBM) on African seasonal rainfall variability. The canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki are in general associated with anomalous reduction (enhancement) of rainfall in southern (northern) hemispheric regions during March-May season. However, both the El Niño flavours anomalously reduce the northern hemispheric rainfall during June-September. Interestingly, during boreal spring and summer, in many regions, the Indian Ocean drivers have influences opposite to those from tropical Pacific drivers. On the other hand, during the October-December season, the canonical El Niño and/or positive IOD are associated with an anomalous enhancement of rainfall in the Eastern Africa, while the El Niño Modoki events are associated with an opposite impact. In addition to the Walker circulation changes, the Indo-Pacific drivers influence the African rainfall through modulating jet streams. During boreal summer, the El Niño Modoki and canonical El Niño (positive IOD) tend to weaken (strengthen) the tropical easterly jet, and result in strengthening (weakening) and southward shift of African easterly jet. This anomalously reduces (enhances) rainfall in the tropical north, including Sahelian Africa.

  14. Mechanisms of northeastern Brazil rainfall anomalies due to Southern Tropical Atlantic variability (United States)

    Neelin, J.; Su, H.


    Observational studies have shown that the rainfall anomalies in eastern equatorial South America, including Nordeste Brazil, have a positive correlation with tropical southern Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Such relationships are reproduced in model simulations with the quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model (QTCM), which includes a simple land model. A suite of model ensemble experiments is analysed using observed SST over the tropical oceans, the tropical Atlantic and the tropical southern Atlantic (30S-0), respectively (with climatological SST in the remainder of the oceans). Warm tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies yield positive precipitation anomalies over the Nordeste and the southern edge of the Atlantic marine intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Mechanisms associated with moisture variations are responsible for the land precipitation changes. Increases in moisture over the Atlantic cause positive anomalies in moisture advection, spreading increased moisture downwind. Where the basic state is far from the convective stability threshold, moisture changes have little effect, but the margins of the climatological convection zone are affected. The increased moisture supply due to advection is enhanced by increases in low-level convergence required by moist static energy balances. The moisture convergence term is several times larger, but experiments altering the moisture advection confirm that the feedback is initiated by wind acting on moisture gradient. This mechanism has several features in common with the recently published "upped-ante" mechanism for El Nino impacts on this region. In that case, the moisture gradient is initiated by warm free tropospheric temperature anomalies increasing the typical value of low-level moisture required to sustain convection in the convection zones. Both mechanisms suggest the usefulness of coordinating ocean and land in situ observations of boundary layer moisture.

  15. Effect of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone on Atmospheric Condition and Distribution of Rainfall in Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong Regions (United States)

    Lumbangaol, A.; Serhalawan, Y. R.; Endarwin


    Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone is an atmospheric phenomenon that has claimed many lives in the Philippines. This super-typhoon cyclone grows in the Western Pacific Ocean, North of Papua. With the area directly contiguous to the trajectory of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone growth, it is necessary to study about the growth activity of this tropical cyclones in Indonesia, especially in 3 different areas, namely Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong. This study was able to determine the impact of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone on atmospheric dynamics and rainfall growth distribution based on the stages of tropical cyclone development. The data used in this study include Himawari-8 IR channel satellite data to see the development stage and movement track of Tropical Cyclone Nock-Ten, rainfall data from TRMM 3B42RT satellite product to know the rain distribution in Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong, and reanalysis data from ECMWF such as wind direction and speed, vertical velocity, and relative vorticity to determine atmospheric conditions at the time of development of the Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone. The results of data analysis processed using GrADS application showed the development stage of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone has effect of changes in atmospheric dynamics condition and wind direction pattern. In addition, tropical cyclones also contribute to very light to moderate scale intensity during the cycle period of tropical cyclone development in all three regions.

  16. Influence of declining mean annual rainfall on the behavior and yield of sediment and particulate organic carbon from tropical watersheds (United States)

    Strauch, Ayron M.; MacKenzie, Richard A.; Giardina, Christian P.; Bruland, Gregory L.


    The capacity to forecast climate and land-use driven changes to runoff, soil erosion and sediment transport in the tropics is hindered by a lack of long-term data sets and model study systems. To address these issues we utilized three watersheds characterized by similar shape, geology, soils, vegetation cover, and land use arranged across a 900 mm gradient in mean annual rainfall (MAR). Using this space-for-time design, we quantified suspended sediment (SS) and particulate organic carbon (POC) export over 18 months to examine how large-scale climate trends (MAR) affect sediment supply and delivery patterns (hysteresis) in tropical watersheds. Average daily SS yield ranged from 0.128 to 0.618 t km- 2 while average daily POC ranged from 0.002 to 0.018 t km- 2. For the largest storm events, we found that sediment delivery exhibited similar clockwise hysteresis patterns among the watersheds, with no significant differences in the similarity function between watershed pairs, indicating that: (1) in-stream and near-stream sediment sources drive sediment flux; and (2) the shape and timing of hysteresis is not affected by MAR. With declining MAR, the ratio of runoff to baseflow and inter-storm length between pulse events both increased. Despite increases in daily rainfall and the number of days with large rainfall events increasing with MAR, there was a decline in daily SS yield possibly due to the exhaustion of sediment supply by frequent runoff events in high MAR watersheds. By contrast, mean daily POC yield increased with increasing MAR, possibly as a result of increased soil organic matter decomposition, greater biomass, or increased carbon availability in higher MAR watersheds. We compared results to modeled values using the Load Estimator (LOADEST) FORTRAN model, confirming the negative relationship between MAR and sediment yield. However, because of its dependency on mean daily flow, LOADEST tended to under predict sediment yield, a result of its poor ability to

  17. Fires in Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest: Testing the Varying Constraints Hypothesis across a Regional Rainfall Gradient. (United States)

    Mondal, Nandita; Sukumar, Raman


    The "varying constraints hypothesis" of fire in natural ecosystems postulates that the extent of fire in an ecosystem would differ according to the relative contribution of fuel load and fuel moisture available, factors that vary globally along a spatial gradient of climatic conditions. We examined if the globally widespread seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) can be placed as a single entity in this framework by analyzing environmental influences on fire extent in a structurally diverse SDTF landscape in the Western Ghats of southern India, representative of similar forests in monsoonal south and southeast Asia. We used logistic regression to model fire extent with factors that represent fuel load and fuel moisture at two levels-the overall landscape and within four defined moisture regimes (between 700 and1700 mm yr-1)-using a dataset of area burnt and seasonal rainfall from 1990 to 2010. The landscape scale model showed that the extent of fire in a given year within this SDTF is dependent on the combined interaction of seasonal rainfall and extent burnt the previous year. Within individual moisture regimes the relative contribution of these factors to the annual extent burnt varied-early dry season rainfall (i.e., fuel moisture) was the predominant factor in the wettest regime, while wet season rainfall (i.e., fuel load) had a large influence on fire extent in the driest regime. Thus, the diverse structural vegetation types associated with SDTFs across a wide range of rainfall regimes would have to be examined at finer regional or local scales to understand the specific environmental drivers of fire. Our results could be extended to investigating fire-climate relationships in STDFs of monsoonal Asia.

  18. Interannual Tropical Rainfall Variability in General Circulation Model Simulations Associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. (United States)

    Sperber, K. R.; Palmer, T. N.


    variability was also best reproduced. However, for all regions the skill was less than that of the ECMWF model.The relationships of the all-India and Sahel rainfall/SST teleconnections with horizontal resolution, convection scheme closure, and numerics have been evaluated. Models with resolution T42 performed more poorly than lower-resolution models. The higher resolution models were predominantly spectral. At low resolution, spectral versus gridpoint numerics performed with nearly equal verisimilitude. At low resolution, moisture convergence closure was slightly more preferable than other convective closure techniques. At high resolution, the models that used moisture convergence closure performed very poorly, suggesting that moisture convergence may be problematic for models with horizontal resolution T42.

  19. Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests. (United States)

    Spracklen, D V; Arnold, S R; Taylor, C M


    Vegetation affects precipitation patterns by mediating moisture, energy and trace-gas fluxes between the surface and atmosphere. When forests are replaced by pasture or crops, evapotranspiration of moisture from soil and vegetation is often diminished, leading to reduced atmospheric humidity and potentially suppressing precipitation. Climate models predict that large-scale tropical deforestation causes reduced regional precipitation, although the magnitude of the effect is model and resolution dependent. In contrast, observational studies have linked deforestation to increased precipitation locally but have been unable to explore the impact of large-scale deforestation. Here we use satellite remote-sensing data of tropical precipitation and vegetation, combined with simulated atmospheric transport patterns, to assess the pan-tropical effect of forests on tropical rainfall. We find that for more than 60 per cent of the tropical land surface (latitudes 30 degrees south to 30 degrees north), air that has passed over extensive vegetation in the preceding few days produces at least twice as much rain as air that has passed over little vegetation. We demonstrate that this empirical correlation is consistent with evapotranspiration maintaining atmospheric moisture in air that passes over extensive vegetation. We combine these empirical relationships with current trends of Amazonian deforestation to estimate reductions of 12 and 21 per cent in wet-season and dry-season precipitation respectively across the Amazon basin by 2050, due to less-efficient moisture recycling. Our observation-based results complement similar estimates from climate models, in which the physical mechanisms and feedbacks at work could be explored in more detail.

  20. Performance of High Resolution Satellite Rainfall Products over Data Scarce Parts of Eastern Ethiopia

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    Shimelis B. Gebere


    Full Text Available Accurate estimation of rainfall in mountainous areas is necessary for various water resource-related applications. Though rain gauges accurately measure rainfall, they are rarely found in mountainous regions and satellite rainfall data can be used as an alternative source over these regions. This study evaluated the performance of three high-resolution satellite rainfall products, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42, the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP_MVK+, and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely-Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN at daily, monthly, and seasonal time scales against rain gauge records over data-scarce parts of Eastern Ethiopia. TRMM 3B42 rain products show relatively better performance at the three time scales, while PERSIANN did much better than GSMaP. At the daily time scale, TRMM correctly detected 88% of the rainfall from the rain gauge. The correlation at the monthly time scale also revealed that the TRMM has captured the observed rainfall better than the other two. For Belg (short rain and Kiremt (long rain seasons, the TRMM did better than the others by far. However, during Bega (dry season, PERSIANN showed a relatively good estimate. At all-time scales, noticing the bias, TRMM tends to overestimate, while PERSIANN and GSMaP tend to underestimate the rainfall. The overall result suggests that monthly and seasonal TRMM rainfall performed better than daily rainfall. It has also been found that both GSMaP and PERSIANN performed better in relatively flat areas than mountainous areas. Before the practical use of TRMM, the RMSE value needs to be improved by considering the topography of the study area or adjusting the bias.

  1. Determination of Areas Susceptible to Landsliding Using Spatial Patterns of Rainfall from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Data, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

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    Renato Fontes Guimarães


    Full Text Available Spatial patterns of shallow landslide initiation reflect both spatial patterns of heavy rainfall and areas susceptible to mass movements. We determine the areas most susceptible to shallow landslide occurrence through the calculation of critical soil cohesion and spatial patterns of rainfall derived from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data for Paraty County, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Our methodology involved: (a creating the digital elevation model (DEM and deriving attributes such as slope and contributing area; (b incorporating spatial patterns of rainfall derived from TRMM into the shallow slope stability model SHALSTAB; and (c quantitative assessment of the correspondence of mapped landslide scars to areas predicted to be most prone to shallow landsliding. We found that around 70% of the landslide scars occurred in less than 10% of the study area identified as potentially unstable. The greatest concentration of landslides occurred in areas where the root strength of vegetation is an important contribution to slope stability in regions of orographically-enhanced rainfall on the coastal topographic flank. This approach helps quantify landslide hazards in areas with similar geomorphological characteristics, but different spatial patterns of rainfall.

  2. Throughfall and temporal trends of rainfall redistribution in an open tropical rainforest, south-western Amazonia (Rondônia, Brazil

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    S. Germer


    Full Text Available Throughfall volumes and incident rainfall were measured between 23 August and 2 December 2004 as well as from 6 January to 15 April 2005 for individual rain events of differing intensities and magnitudes in an open tropical rainforest in Rondônia, Brazil. Temporal patterns of throughfall spatial variability were examined. Estimated interception was compared to modeled interception obtained by applying the revised Gash model in order to identify sources of throughfall variability in open tropical rainforests. Gross precipitation of 97 events amounted to 1309 mm, 89±5.6% (S.E. of which reached the forest floor as throughfall. The redistribution of water within the canopy was highly variable in time, which we attribute to the high density of babassu palms (Orbignya phalerata, their seasonal leaf growth, and their conducive morphology. We identified a 10-min rainfall intensity threshold of 30 mmh-1 above which interception was highly variable. This variability is amplified by funneling and shading effects of palms. This interaction between a rainfall variable and vegetation characteristics is relevant for understanding the hydrology of all tropical rainforests with a high palm density.

  3. A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Tropical Rainfall: I. Statistics of Spatial Averages (United States)

    Kundu, Prasun K.; Bell, Thomas L.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)


    Global maps of rainfall are of great importance in connection with modeling of the earth s climate. Comparison between the maps of rainfall predicted by computer-generated climate models with observation provides a sensitive test for these models. To make such a comparison, one typically needs the total precipitation amount over a large area, which could be hundreds of kilometers in size over extended periods of time of order days or months. This presents a difficult problem since rain varies greatly from place to place as well as in time. Remote sensing methods using ground radar or satellites detect rain over a large area by essentially taking a series of snapshots at infrequent intervals and indirectly deriving the average rain intensity within a collection of pixels , usually several kilometers in size. They measure area average of rain at a particular instant. Rain gauges, on the other hand, record rain accumulation continuously in time but only over a very small area tens of centimeters across, say, the size of a dinner plate. They measure only a time average at a single location. In making use of either method one needs to fill in the gaps in the observation - either the gaps in the area covered or the gaps in time of observation. This involves using statistical models to obtain information about the rain that is missed from what is actually detected. This paper investigates such a statistical model and validates it with rain data collected over the tropical Western Pacific from ship borne radars during TOGA COARE (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment). The model incorporates a number of commonly observed features of rain. While rain varies rapidly with location and time, the variability diminishes when averaged over larger areas or longer periods of time. Moreover, rain is patchy in nature - at any instant on the average only a certain fraction of the observed pixels contain rain. The fraction of area covered by

  4. Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release over the Global Tropics using TRMM Rainfall Products from December 1997 to November 2002 (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Lang, S.; Simpson, J.; Meneghini, R.; Halverson, J.; Johnson, R.; Adler, R.


    NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2000. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DJF 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs west Pacific, Africa vs. S. America ) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in stratiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model. Review of other latent heating algorithms will be discussed in the workshop.

  5. Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release over the Global Tropics using TRMM rainfall products from December 1997 to November 2001 (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Lang, S.; Simpson, J.; Meneghini, R.; Halverson, J.; Johnson, R.; Adler, R.


    NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2001. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DE 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs. west Pacific, Africa vs. S. America) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in strtaiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model.

  6. Dynamics of changing impacts of tropical Indo-Pacific variability on Indian and Australian rainfall (United States)

    Li, Ziguang; Cai, Wenju; Lin, Xiaopei


    A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduce rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and southern Australia. However, since the 1980s, El Niño’s influence has been decreasing, accompanied by a strengthening in the IOD’s influence on southern Australia but a reversal in the IOD’s influence on the Indian subcontinent. The dynamics are not fully understood. Here we show that a post-1980 weakening in the ENSO-IOD coherence plays a key role. During the pre-1980 high coherence, ENSO drives both the IOD and regional rainfall, and the IOD’s influence cannot manifest itself. During the post-1980 weak coherence, a positive IOD leads to increased Indian rainfall, offsetting the impact from El Niño. Likewise, the post-1980 weak ENSO-IOD coherence means that El Niño’s pathway for influencing southern Australia cannot fully operate, and as positive IOD becomes more independent and more frequent during this period, its influence on southern Australia rainfall strengthens. There is no evidence to support that greenhouse warming plays a part in these decadal fluctuations.

  7. Automatic Extraction of High-Resolution Rainfall Series from Rainfall Strip Charts (United States)

    Saa-Requejo, Antonio; Valencia, Jose Luis; Garrido, Alberto; Tarquis, Ana M.


    Soil erosion is a complex phenomenon involving the detachment and transport of soil particles, storage and runoff of rainwater, and infiltration. The relative magnitude and importance of these processes depends on a host of factors, including climate, soil, topography, cropping and land management practices among others. Most models for soil erosion or hydrological processes need an accurate storm characterization. However, this data are not always available and in some cases indirect models are generated to fill this gap. In Spain, the rain intensity data known for time periods less than 24 hours back to 1924 and many studies are limited by it. In many cases this data is stored in rainfall strip charts in the meteorological stations but haven't been transfer in a numerical form. To overcome this deficiency in the raw data a process of information extraction from large amounts of rainfall strip charts is implemented by means of computer software. The method has been developed that largely automates the intensive-labour extraction work based on van Piggelen et al. (2011). The method consists of the following five basic steps: 1) scanning the charts to high-resolution digital images, 2) manually and visually registering relevant meta information from charts and pre-processing, 3) applying automatic curve extraction software in a batch process to determine the coordinates of cumulative rainfall lines on the images (main step), 4) post processing the curves that were not correctly determined in step 3, and 5) aggregating the cumulative rainfall in pixel coordinates to the desired time resolution. A colour detection procedure is introduced that automatically separates the background of the charts and rolls from the grid and subsequently the rainfall curve. The rainfall curve is detected by minimization of a cost function. Some utilities have been added to improve the previous work and automates some auxiliary processes: readjust the bands properly, merge bands when

  8. Verification of the skill of numerical weather prediction models in forecasting rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones (United States)

    Luitel, Beda; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel A.


    The goal of this study is the evaluation of the skill of five state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK Met Office (UKMO), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC)] in forecasting rainfall from North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). Analyses focus on 15 North Atlantic TCs that made landfall along the U.S. coast over the 2007-2012 period. As reference data we use gridded rainfall provided by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). We consider forecast lead-times up to five days. To benchmark the skill of these models, we consider rainfall estimates from one radar-based (Stage IV) and four satellite-based [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA, both real-time and research version); Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN); the CPC MORPHing Technique (CMORPH)] rainfall products. Daily and storm total rainfall fields from each of these remote sensing products are compared to the reference data to obtain information about the range of errors we can expect from "observational data." The skill of the NWP models is quantified: (1) by visual examination of the distribution of the errors in storm total rainfall for the different lead-times, and numerical examination of the first three moments of the error distribution; (2) relative to climatology at the daily scale. Considering these skill metrics, we conclude that the NWP models can provide skillful forecasts of TC rainfall with lead-times up to 48 h, without a consistently best or worst NWP model.

  9. Nondestructive examination of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) reaction control subsystem (RCS) propellant tanks (United States)

    Free, James M.


    This paper assesses the feasibility of using eddy current nondestructive examination to determine flaw sizes in completely assembled hydrazine propellant tanks. The study was performed by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) project to help determine whether existing propellant tanks could meet the fracture analysis requirements of the current pressure vessel specification, MIL-STD-1522A and, therefore be used on the TRMM spacecraft. After evaluating several nondestructive test methods, eddy current testing was selected as the most promising method for determining flaw sizes on external and internal surfaces of completely assembled tanks. Tests were conducted to confirm the detection capability of the eddy current NDE, procedures were developed to inspect two candidate tanks, and the test support equipment was designed. The non-spherical tank eddy current NDE test program was terminated when the decision was made to procure new tanks for the TRMM propulsion subsystem. The information on the development phase of this test program is presented in this paper as a reference for future investigation on the subject.

  10. Rainfall-threshold conditions for landslides in a humid-tropical system (United States)

    Larsen, Matthew C.; Simon, Andrew


    Landslides are triggered by factors such as heavy rainfall, seismic activity, and construction on hillslopes. The leading cause of landslides in Puerto Rico is intense and/or prolonged rainfall. A rainfall threshold for rainfall-triggered landsliding is delimited by 256 storms that occurred between 1959 and 1991 in the central mountains of Puerto Rico, where mean annual rainfall is close to or in excess of 2,000 mm. Forty one of the 256 storms produced intense and/or prolonged rainfall that resulted in tens to hundreds of landslides. A threshold fitted to the lower boundary of the field defined by landslide-triggering storms is expressed as

  11. GHRSST Level 2P Regional Subskin Sea Surface Temperature from the Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) for the Atlantic Ocean (GDS version 1) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) is a well calibrated passive microwave radiometer, similar to SSM/I, that contains lower...

  12. GHRSST Level 2P Global Subskin Sea Surface Temperature from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) onboard Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite (GDS versions 1 and 2) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — GDS2 Version -The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) is a well calibrated passive microwave radiometer, similar to the Special Sensor...

  13. GHRSST L2P Gridded Global Subskin Sea Surface Temperature from the Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) (GDS version 1) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) is a well calibrated passive microwave radiometer, similar to SSM/I, that contains lower...

  14. Warm Water Pools of the Western Caribbean and Eastern Tropical Pacific: Their Influence on Intraseasonal Rainfall Regimes and Tropical Storm Activity in Mexico (United States)

    Douglas, A. V.; Englehart, P. J.


    A dipole in tropical cyclone development between the Caribbean and the eastern tropical Pacific will be examined relative to its affect on southern Mexican rainfall. With the change over in the AMO and PDO in 1994 and 1998, respectively, tropical storm genesis has been increasing in the Caribbean while declining in the tropical east Pacific. This dipole in tropical cyclone development appears to be related to changes in the pre storm season heat content of the two ocean basins (data Scripps Institution of Oceanography). Preliminary work indicates that if the Caribbean is warmer than the Pacific by late May the dipole will be accentuated with a pronounced decrease in tropical storms in the east Pacific with an early and prolonged season in the Caribbean. In recent years there appears to have been an increase in the intensity and duration of midsummer drought (Canicula) in Mexico associated with changes in the PDO and AMO. These long term ocean oscillations appear to control the dipole in the strength of the Caribbean and East Pacific warm pools. Mid summer drought is a normal occurrence in much of Mexico and Central America, but the intensified droughts of the recent period have stressed the agricultural community of the region. Based on preliminary work, it appears that the recent increased frequency of midsummer drought can be linked to a shift in the warmest pool from the East Pacific to the Caribbean.

  15. Effects of Rainfall Characteristics on the Stability of Tropical Residual Soil Slope


    Rahardjo Harianto; Satyanaga Alfrendo; Leong Eng Choon


    Global climate change has a significant impact on rainfall characteristics, sea water level and groundwater table. Changes in rainfall characteristics may affect stability of slopes and have severe impacts on sustainable urban living. Information on the intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall is often required by geotechnical engineers for performing slope stability analyses. Many seepage analyses are commonly performed using the most extreme rainfall possible which is uneconomical in d...

  16. Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES): A product of a high temporal resolution rainfall data collection in Europe (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine


    The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the (R)USLE model. The R-factor is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minutes rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years) which are not readily available at European scale. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland in order to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,541 rainfall stations in 2014 and has been updated with 134 additional stations in 2015. The interpolation of those point R-factor values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511, 801-815). The intra-annual variability of rainfall erosivity is crucial for modelling soil erosion on a monthly and seasonal basis. The monthly feature of rainfall erosivity has been added in 2015 as an advancement of REDES and the respective mean annual R-factor map. Almost 19,000 monthly R-factor values of REDES contributed to the seasonal and monthly assessments of rainfall erosivity in Europe. According to the first results, more than 50% of the total rainfall erosivity in Europe takes place in the period from June to September. The spatial patterns of rainfall erosivity have significant differences between Northern and Southern Europe as summer is the most erosive period in Central and Northern Europe and autumn in the

  17. Detecting the hydrological impacts of forest cover change in tropical mountain areas: need for detrending time series of rainfall and streamflow data. (United States)

    Molina, A.; Vanacker, V.; Brisson, E.; Balthazar, V.


    Interactions between human activities and the physical environment have increasingly transformed the hydrological functioning of Andean ecosystems. In these human-modified landscapes, land use/-cover change may have a profound effect on riverine water and sediment fluxes. The hydrological impacts of land use/-cover change are diverse, as changes in vegetation affect the various components of the hydrological cycle including evapotranspiration, infiltration and surface runoff. Quantitative data for tropical mountain regions are scarce, as few long time series on rainfall, water discharge and land use are available. Furthermore, time series of rainfall and streamflow data in tropical mountains are often highly influenced by large inter- and intra-annual variability. In this paper, we analyse the hydrological response to complex forest cover change for a catchment of 280 km2 located in the Ecuadorian Andes. Forest cover change in the Pangor catchment was reconstructed based on airphotos (1963, 1977), LANDSAT TM (1991) and ETM+ data (2001, 2009). From 1963, natural vegetation was converted to agricultural land and pine plantations: forests decreased by a factor 2, and paramo decreased by 20 km2 between 1963 and 2009. For this catchment, there exists an exceptionally long record of rainfall and streamflow data that dates back from the '70s till now, but large variability in hydrometeorological data exists that is partly related to ENSO events. Given the nonstationary and nonlinear character of the ENSO-related changes in rainfall, we used the Hilbert-Huang transformation to detrend the time series of the river flow data from inter- and intra-annual fluctuations in rainfall. After applying adaptive data analysis based on empirical model decomposition techniques, it becomes apparent that the long-term trend in streamflow is different from the long-term trend in rainfall data. While the streamflow data show a long-term decrease in monthly flow, the rainfall data have a

  18. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Data and Services for Research and Applications (United States)

    Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, Dana; Teng, William; Kempler, Steven


    Precipitation is a critical component of the Earth's hydrological cycle. Launched on 27 November 1997, TRMM is a joint U.S.-Japan satellite mission to provide the first detailed and comprehensive data set of the four-dimensional distribution of rainfall and latent heating over vastly under-sampled tropical and subtropical oceans and continents (40 S - 40 N). Over the past 14 years, TRMM has been a major data source for meteorological, hydrological and other research and application activities around the world. The purpose of this short article is to inform that the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) provides TRMM archive and near-real-time precipitation data sets and services for research and applications. TRMM data consist of orbital data from TRMM instruments at the sensor s resolution, gridded data at a range of spatial and temporal resolutions, subsets, ground-based instrument data, and ancillary data. Data analysis, display, and delivery are facilitated by the following services: (1) Mirador (data search and access); (2) TOVAS (TRMM Online Visualization and Analysis System); (3) OPeNDAP (Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol); (4) GrADS Data Server (GDS); and (5) Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Map Service (WMS) for the GIS community. Precipitation data application services are available to support a wide variety of applications around the world. Future plans include enhanced and new services to address data related issues from the user community. Meanwhile, the GES DISC is preparing for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission which is scheduled for launch in 2014.

  19. Evaluation of rainfall structure on hydrograph simulation: Comparison of radar and interpolated methods, a study case in a tropical catchment (United States)

    Velasquez, N.; Ochoa, A.; Castillo, S.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.


    the density of the rain gauge network and its distribution relative to the precipitation events. The results for the 84 storms show a better model skill using radar QPE than the interpolated fields. Results using interpolated fields are highly affected by the dominant rainfall type and the basin scale.

  20. Effects of Drought, Pest Pressure and Light Availability on Seedling Establishment and Growth: Their Role for Distribution of Tree Species across a Tropical Rainfall Gradient (United States)

    Gaviria, Julian; Engelbrecht, Bettina M. J.


    Tree species distributions associated with rainfall are among the most prominent patterns in tropical forests. Understanding the mechanisms shaping these patterns is important to project impacts of global climate change on tree distributions and diversity in the tropics. Beside direct effects of water availability, additional factors co-varying with rainfall have been hypothesized to play an important role, including pest pressure and light availability. While low water availability is expected to exclude drought-intolerant wet forest species from drier forests (physiological tolerance hypothesis), high pest pressure or low light availability are hypothesized to exclude dry forest species from wetter forests (pest pressure gradient and light availability hypothesis, respectively). To test these hypotheses at the seed-to-seedling transition, the potentially most critical stage for species discrimination, we conducted a reciprocal transplant experiment combined with a pest exclosure treatment at a wet and a dry forest site in Panama with seeds of 26 species with contrasting origin. Establishment success after one year did not reflect species distribution patterns. However, in the wet forest, wet origin species had a home advantage over dry forest species through higher growth rates. At the same time, drought limited survival of wet origin species in the dry forest, supporting the physiological tolerance hypothesis. Together these processes sort species over longer time frames, and exclude species outside their respective home range. Although we found pronounced effects of pests and some effects of light availability on the seedlings, they did not corroborate the pest pressure nor light availability hypotheses at the seed-to-seedling transition. Our results underline that changes in water availability due to climate change will have direct consequences on tree regeneration and distributions along tropical rainfall gradients, while indirect effects of light and pests

  1. Effects of Rainfall Characteristics on the Stability of Tropical Residual Soil Slope

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahardjo Harianto


    Full Text Available Global climate change has a significant impact on rainfall characteristics, sea water level and groundwater table. Changes in rainfall characteristics may affect stability of slopes and have severe impacts on sustainable urban living. Information on the intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall is often required by geotechnical engineers for performing slope stability analyses. Many seepage analyses are commonly performed using the most extreme rainfall possible which is uneconomical in designing a slope repair or slope failure preventive measure. In this study, the historical rainfall data were analyzed and investigated to understand the characteristics of rainfall in Singapore. The frequency distribution method was used to estimate future rainfall characteristics in Singapore. New intensity-duration-frequency (IDF curves for rainfall in Singapore were developed for six different durations (10, 20, 30 min and 1, 2 and 24 h and six frequencies (2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. The new IDF curves were used in the seepage and slope stability analyses to determine the variation of factor of safety of residual soil slopes under different rainfall intensities in Singapore.

  2. High hydrostatic pressure processing of tropical fruits. (United States)

    Lopes, Maria Lúcia M; Valente Mesquita, Vera L; Chiaradia, Ana Cristina N; Fernandes, Antônio Alberto R; Fernandes, Patricia M B


    Interest in the nonthermal method of high hydrostatic pressure (HHP) for food preservation has increased recently due to the possibility of inactivating microorganisms and enzymes while maintaining product sensorial and nutritional properties. This work deals with HHP use for the preservation of tropical fruit products. HHP is shown to be a practical approach to obtaining high-quality tropical fruit products that are both nutritive and safe.

  3. Synchrony, compensatory dynamics, and the functional trait basis of phenological diversity in a tropical dry forest tree community: effects of rainfall seasonality (United States)

    Lasky, Jesse R.; Uriarte, María; Muscarella, Robert


    Interspecific variation in phenology is a key axis of functional diversity, potentially mediating how communities respond to climate change. The diverse drivers of phenology act across multiple temporal scales. For example, abiotic constraints favor synchronous reproduction (positive covariance among species), while biotic interactions can favor synchrony or compensatory dynamics (negative covariance). We used wavelet analyses to examine phenology of community flower and seed production for 45 tree species across multiple temporal scales in a tropical dry forest in Puerto Rico with marked rainfall seasonality. We asked three questions: (1) do species exhibit synchronous or compensatory temporal dynamics in reproduction, (2) do interspecific differences in phenology reflect variable responses to rainfall, and (3) is interspecific variation in phenology and response to a major drought associated with functional traits that mediate responses to moisture? Community-level flowering was synchronized at seasonal scales (˜5-6 mo) and at short scales (˜1 mo, following rainfall). However, seed rain exhibited significant compensatory dynamics at intraseasonal scales (˜3 mo), suggesting interspecific variation in temporal niches. Species with large leaves (associated with sensitivity to water deficit) peaked in reproduction synchronously with the peak of seasonal rainfall (˜5 mo scale). By contrast, species with high wood specific gravity (associated with drought resistance) tended to flower in drier periods. Flowering of tall species and those with large leaves was most tightly linked to intraseasonal (˜2 mo scale) rainfall fluctuations. Although the 2015 drought dramatically reduced community-wide reproduction, functional traits were not associated with the magnitude of species-specific declines. Our results suggest opposing drivers of synchronous versus compensatory dynamics at different temporal scales. Phenology associations with functional traits indicated that

  4. Polarimetric rainfall retrieval from a C-Band weather radar in a tropical environment (The Philippines) (United States)

    Crisologo, I.; Vulpiani, G.; Abon, C. C.; David, C. P. C.; Bronstert, A.; Heistermann, Maik


    We evaluated the potential of polarimetric rainfall retrieval methods for the Tagaytay C-Band weather radar in the Philippines. For this purpose, we combined a method for fuzzy echo classification, an approach to extract and reconstruct the differential propagation phase, Φ DP , and a polarimetric self-consistency approach to calibrate horizontal and differential reflectivity. The reconstructed Φ DP was used to estimate path-integrated attenuation and to retrieve the specific differential phase, K DP . All related algorithms were transparently implemented in the Open Source radar processing software wradlib. Rainfall was then estimated from different variables: from re-calibrated reflectivity, from re-calibrated reflectivity that has been corrected for path-integrated attenuation, from the specific differential phase, and from a combination of reflectivity and specific differential phase. As an additional benchmark, rainfall was estimated by interpolating the rainfall observed by rain gauges. We evaluated the rainfall products for daily and hourly accumulations. For this purpose, we used observations of 16 rain gauges from a five-month period in the 2012 wet season. It turned out that the retrieval of rainfall from K DP substantially improved the rainfall estimation at both daily and hourly time scales. The measurement of reflectivity apparently was impaired by severe miscalibration while K DP was immune to such effects. Daily accumulations of rainfall retrieved from K DP showed a very low estimation bias and small random errors. Random scatter was, though, strongly present in hourly accumulations.

  5. The interaction rainfall vs. weight as determinant of total mercury concentration in fish from a tropical estuary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barletta, M.; Lucena, L.R.R.; Costa, M.F.; Barbosa-Cintra, S.C.T.; Cysneiros, F.J.A.


    Mercury loads in tropical estuaries are largely controlled by the rainfall regime that may cause biodilution due to increased amounts of organic matter (both live and non-living) in the system. Top predators, as Trichiurus lepturus, reflect the changing mercury bioavailability situations in their muscle tissues. In this work two variables [fish weight (g) and monthly total rainfall (mm)] are presented as being important predictors of total mercury concentration (T-Hg) in fish muscle. These important explanatory variables were identified by a Weibull Regression model, which best fit the dataset. A predictive model using readily available variables as rainfall is important, and can be applied for human and ecological health assessments and decisions. The main contribution will be to further protect vulnerable groups as pregnant women and children. Nature conservation directives could also improve by considering monitoring sample designs that include this hypothesis, helping to establish complete and detailed mercury contamination scenarios. - Highlights: ► Questions previous statistical approaches that used heterocedastic data after transformation. ► Corroborates other works that pointed seasonal variations of the mercury burden in fish muscle. ► Defines rainfall as a major driver of mercury in predatory fish at tropical latitudes. ► Progresses in environmental data analysis and steps forward from previous approaches to Hg in fish. ► Proposes a model to predict scenarios of Hg in fish as a function of biological and environmental variables. - The Weibull Regression model was the most appropriate fit for T-Hg in fish and therefore more ecological insights emerged from previous data.

  6. Does internal variability change in response to global warming? A large ensemble modelling study of tropical rainfall (United States)

    Milinski, S.; Bader, J.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Marotzke, J.


    There is some consensus on mean state changes of rainfall under global warming; changes of the internal variability, on the other hand, are more difficult to analyse and have not been discussed as much despite their importance for understanding changes in extreme events, such as droughts or floodings. We analyse changes in the rainfall variability in the tropical Atlantic region. We use a 100-member ensemble of historical (1850-2005) model simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1) to identify changes of internal rainfall variability. To investigate the effects of global warming on the internal variability, we employ an additional ensemble of model simulations with stronger external forcing (1% CO2-increase per year, same integration length as the historical simulations) with 68 ensemble members. The focus of our study is on the oceanic Atlantic ITCZ. We find that the internal variability of rainfall over the tropical Atlantic does change due to global warming and that these changes in variability are larger than changes in the mean state in some regions. From splitting the total variance into patterns of variability, we see that the variability on the southern flank of the ITCZ becomes more dominant, i.e. explaining a larger fraction of the total variance in a warmer climate. In agreement with previous studies, we find that changes in the mean state show an increase and narrowing of the ITCZ. The large ensembles allow us to do a statistically robust differentiation between the changes in variability that can be explained by internal variability and those that can be attributed to the external forcing. Furthermore, we argue that internal variability in a transient climate is only well defined in the ensemble domain and not in the temporal domain, which requires the use of a large ensemble.

  7. Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall over Northern Tropical Africa (United States)

    Vogel, Peter; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas H.; Schlueter, Andreas; Gneiting, Tilmann


    Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) relative to climatology-based forecasts for 1 to 5-day accumulated precipitation based on the monsoon seasons 2007-2014 for three regions within northern tropical Africa. To assess the full potential of raw ensemble forecasts across spatial scales, we apply state-of-the-art statistical postprocessing methods in form of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS), and verify against station and spatially aggregated, satellite-based gridded observations. Raw ensemble forecasts are uncalibrated, unreliable, and underperform relative to climatology, independently of region, accumulation time, monsoon season, and ensemble. Differences between raw ensemble and climatological forecasts are large, and partly stem from poor prediction for low precipitation amounts. BMA and EMOS postprocessed forecasts are calibrated, reliable, and strongly improve on the raw ensembles, but - somewhat disappointingly - typically do not outperform climatology. Most EPSs exhibit slight improvements over the period 2007-2014, but overall have little added value compared to climatology. We suspect that the parametrization of convection is a potential cause for the sobering lack of ensemble forecast skill in a region dominated by mesoscale convective systems.

  8. A Merging Framework for Rainfall Estimation at High Spatiotemporal Resolution for Distributed Hydrological Modeling in a Data-Scarce Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinping Long


    Full Text Available Merging satellite and rain gauge data by combining accurate quantitative rainfall from stations with spatial continuous information from remote sensing observations provides a practical method of estimating rainfall. However, generating high spatiotemporal rainfall fields for catchment-distributed hydrological modeling is a problem when only a sparse rain gauge network and coarse spatial resolution of satellite data are available. The objective of the study is to present a satellite and rain gauge data-merging framework adapting for coarse resolution and data-sparse designs. In the framework, a statistical spatial downscaling method based on the relationships among precipitation, topographical features, and weather conditions was used to downscale the 0.25° daily rainfall field derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA precipitation product version 7. The nonparametric merging technique of double kernel smoothing, adapting for data-sparse design, was combined with the global optimization method of shuffled complex evolution, to merge the downscaled TRMM and gauged rainfall with minimum cross-validation error. An indicator field representing the presence and absence of rainfall was generated using the indicator kriging technique and applied to the previously merged result to consider the spatial intermittency of daily rainfall. The framework was applied to estimate daily precipitation at a 1 km resolution in the Qinghai Lake Basin, a data-scarce area in the northeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The final estimates not only captured the spatial pattern of daily and annual precipitation with a relatively small estimation error, but also performed very well in stream flow simulation when applied to force the geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM. The proposed framework thus appears feasible for rainfall estimation at high spatiotemporal resolution in data-scarce areas.

  9. Tropical Rainfall Analysis Using TRMM in Combination With Other Satellite Gauge Data: Comparison with Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Results (United States)

    Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Curtis, Scott


    This paper describes recent results of using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) information as the key calibration tool in a merged analysis on a 1 deg x 1 deg latitude/longitude monthly scale based on multiple satellite sources and raingauge analysis. The procedure used to produce the GPCP data set is a stepwise approach which first combines the satellite low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous IR observations into a "multi-satellite" product and than merges that result with the raingauge analysis. Preliminary results produced with the still-stabilizing TRMM algorithms indicate that TRMM shows tighter spatial gradients in tropical rain maxima with higher peaks in the center of the maxima. The TRMM analyses will be used to evaluate the evolution of the 1998 ENSO variations, again in comparison with the GPCP analyses.

  10. Diurnal Variation of Rainfall Associated with Tropical Depression in South China and its Relationship to Land-Sea Contrast and Topography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuchun Zhao


    Full Text Available Convective precipitation associated with tropical depression (TD is one primary type of post-flooding season rainfall in South China (SC. Observations of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM satellite have shown specific diurnal features of convective rainfall in South China, which is somewhat different from that in other seasons or regions of China. Convective precipitation is usually organized into a rainfall band along the southeastern coast of South China in the early morning hours. The rainfall band develops and intensifies quickly in the morning, then moves inland in the afternoon and, finally, diminishes at night. The daily convective rainfall along the coast is much more than that in the inland region, and heavy rainfall is often found along the coast. A long-duration heavy rainfall event associated with tropical depression “Fitow” during the period from 28 August to 6 September 2001, is selected in this study to explore the diurnal feature of convective rainfall and its formation mechanism. Modeling results of the 10-day heavy rainfall event are compared with both rain-gauge observation and satellite-retrieved rainfall. Total precipitation and its spatial distribution, as well as diurnal variations are reasonably simulated and agree well with observations. Further analysis reveals that the development and movement of convective precipitation is mainly related to the land and sea breezes. The anomalous height-latitudinal circulation in the morning-to-noon hours is completely reversed in the afternoon-to-late-evening hours, with the convective rainfall swinging back and forth, following its updraft branch. Sensitivity experiments show that the afternoon convective rainfall in the inland region of SC is caused by the diurnal variation of solar radiation forcing. The mountain range along the coast and the complex topography in the inland region of SC plays a critical role in the enhancement of diurnal convective rainfall

  11. The Use of Satellite Microwave Rainfall Measurements to Predict Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    West, Derek


    .... Relationships between parameters obtained from an operational SSM/I based rainfall measuring algorithm and current intensity and ensuing 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 hour intensity changes from best...

  12. Adapting an existing visualization application for browser-based deployment: A case study from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (United States)

    Kelley, Owen A.


    THOR, the Tool for High-resolution Observation Review, is a data viewer for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. THOR began as a desktop application, but now it can be accessed with a web browser, making THOR one of the first online tools for visualizing TRMM satellite data ( In this effort, the reuse of the existing visualization code was maximized and the complexity of new code was minimized by avoiding unnecessary functionality, frameworks, or libraries. The simplicity of this approach makes it potentially attractive to researchers wishing to adapt their visualization applications for online deployment. To enable THOR to run within a web browser, three new pieces of code are written. First, the graphical user interface (GUI) of the desktop application is translated into HTML, JavaScript, and CSS. Second, a simple communication mechanism is developed over HTTP. Third, a virtual GUI is created on the server that interfaces with the image-generating routines of the existing desktop application so that these routines do not need to be modified for online use. While the basic functionality of THOR is now available online, prototyping is ongoing for enhanced 3D imaging and other aspects of both THOR Desktop and THOR Online. Because TRMM data products are complex and periodically reprocessed with improved algorithms, having a tool such as THOR is important to analysts at the Precipitation Processing System where the algorithms are tested and the products generated, stored, and distributed. Researchers also have found THOR useful for taking a first look at individual files before writing their own software to perform specialized calculations and analyses.

  13. Interannual rainfall variability in the Amazon basin and sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Oceans (United States)

    Ronchail, Josyane; Cochonneau, Gérard; Molinier, Michel; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Chaves, Adriana Goretti De Miranda; Guimarães, Valdemar; de Oliveira, Eurides


    Rainfall variability in the Amazon basin is studied in relation to sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific and the northern and southern tropical Atlantic during the 1977-99 period, using the HiBAm original rainfall data set and complementary cluster and composite analyses.The northeastern part of the basin, north of 5 °S and east of 60 °W, is significantly related with tropical SSTs: a rainier wet season is observed when the equatorial Pacific and the northern (southern) tropical Atlantic are anomalously cold (warm). A shorter and drier wet season is observed during El Niño events and negative rainfall anomalies are also significantly associated with a warm northern Atlantic in the austral autumn and a cold southern Atlantic in the spring. The northeastern Amazon rainfall anomalies are closely related with El Niño-southern oscillation during the whole year, whereas the relationships with the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies are mainly observed during the autumn. A time-space continuity is observed between El Niño-related rainfall anomalies in the northeastern Amazon, those in the northern Amazon and south-eastern Amazon, and those in northern South America and in the Nordeste of Brazil.A reinforcement of certain rainfall anomalies is observed when specific oceanic events combine. For instance, when El Niño and cold SSTs in the southern Atlantic are associated, very strong negative anomalies are observed in the whole northern Amazon basin. Nonetheless, the comparison of the cluster and the composite analyses results shows that the rainfall anomalies in the northeastern Amazon are not always associated with tropical SST anomalies.In the southern and western Amazon, significant tropical SST-related rainfall anomalies are very few and spatially variable. The precipitation origins differ from those of the northeastern Amazon: land temperature variability, extratropical perturbations and moisture advection are important rainfall factors, as well

  14. Climatic Variations in Tropical West African Rainfall and the Implications for Military Planners

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Montgomery, Christi S


    ...) and El Nino/La Nina (ENLN) events in the tropical Pacific. Our primary data sets were the National Centers for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis fields and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI...

  15. Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land (United States)

    Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Chen, Yang; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Lindsay, Keith; Pritchard, Michael S.; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Randerson, James T.


    Understanding how anthropogenic CO2 emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO2 is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO2 increases are isolated over individual continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO2 than Asian or African forests.

  16. Temperature and rainfall strongly drive temporal growth variation in Asian tropical forest trees. (United States)

    Vlam, Mart; Baker, Patrick J; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Zuidema, Pieter A


    Climate change effects on growth rates of tropical trees may lead to alterations in carbon cycling of carbon-rich tropical forests. However, climate sensitivity of broad-leaved lowland tropical trees is poorly understood. Dendrochronology (tree-ring analysis) provides a powerful tool to study the relationship between tropical tree growth and annual climate variability. We aimed to establish climate-growth relationships for five annual-ring forming tree species, using ring-width data from 459 canopy and understory trees from a seasonal tropical forest in western Thailand. Based on 183/459 trees, chronologies with total lengths between 29 and 62 years were produced for four out of five species. Bootstrapped correlation analysis revealed that climate-growth responses were similar among these four species. Growth was significantly negatively correlated with current-year maximum and minimum temperatures, and positively correlated with dry-season precipitation levels. Negative correlations between growth and temperature may be attributed to a positive relationship between temperature and autotrophic respiration rates. The positive relationship between growth and dry-season precipitation levels likely reflects the strong water demand during leaf flush. Mixed-effect models yielded results that were consistent across species: a negative effect of current wet-season maximum temperatures on growth, but also additive positive effects of, for example, prior dry-season maximum temperatures. Our analyses showed that annual growth variability in tropical trees is determined by a combination of both temperature and precipitation variability. With rising temperature, the predominantly negative relationship between temperature and growth may imply decreasing growth rates of tropical trees as a result of global warming.

  17. Validation and Analysis of Microwave-Derived Rainfall Over the Tropics (United States)


    Intraseasonal Oscillations In addition to the biennial signals identified by Meehl (1987), Lau and col- laborators (Peng 1987; Shen 1987) expound on...temporally integrated, over a 50 x 50 area for a minimum of one month, to create clima - tological rainfall composites. Validation of the ESMR-derived

  18. On the Characterization of Rainfall Associated with U.S. Landfalling North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Based on Satellite Data and Numerical Weather Prediction Outputs (United States)

    Luitel, B. N.; Villarini, G.; Vecchi, G. A.


    When we talk about tropical cyclones (TCs), the first things that come to mind are strong winds and storm surge affecting the coastal areas. However, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 59% of the deaths caused by TCs since 1970 is due to fresh water flooding. Heavy rainfall associated with TCs accounts for 13% of heavy rainfall events nationwide for the June-October months, with this percentage being much higher if the focus is on the eastern and southern United States. This study focuses on the evaluation of precipitation associated with the North Atlantic TCs that affected the continental United States over the period 2007 - 2012. We evaluate the rainfall associated with these TCs using four satellite based rainfall products: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA; both real-time and research version); Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN); Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHing technique (CMORPH). As a reference data we use gridded rainfall provided by CPC (Daily US Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Precipitation). Rainfall fields from each of these satellite products are compared to the reference data, providing valuable information about the realism of these products in reproducing the rainfall associated with TCs affecting the continental United States. In addition to the satellite products, we evaluate the forecasted rainfall produced by five state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK Met Office (UKMO), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC). The skill of these models in reproducing TC rainfall is quantified for different lead times, and discussed in light of the performance of the satellite products.

  19. Rainfall intensity characteristics at coastal and high altitude stations ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    a given amount of rain occurs is important because heavier rainfall leads to greater runoff, greater soil erosion and less infiltration into the water table. A knowledge of rainfall intensity therefore becomes. Keywords. Rainfall intensity; Kerala; cumulative distribution. J. Earth Syst. Sci. 116, No. 5, October 2007, pp. 451–463.

  20. Base flow-driven shifts in tropical stream temperature regimes across a mean annual rainfall gradient (United States)

    Ayron M. Strauch; Richard A. MacKenzie; Ralph W. Tingley


    Climate change is expected to affect air temperature and watershed hydrology, but the degree to which these concurrent changes affect stream temperature is not well documented in the tropics. How stream temperature varies over time under changing hydrologic conditions is difficult to isolate from seasonal changes in air temperature. Groundwater and bank storage...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Q. Liu


    Full Text Available The abundance or lack of rainfall affects peoples’ life and activities. As a major component of the global hydrological cycle (Chokngamwong & Chiu, 2007, accurate representations at various spatial and temporal scales are crucial for a lot of decision making processes. Climate models show a warmer and wetter climate due to increases of Greenhouse Gases (GHG. However, the models’ resolutions are often too coarse to be directly applicable to local scales that are useful for mitigation purposes. Hence disaggregation (downscaling procedures are needed to transfer the coarse scale products to higher spatial and temporal resolutions. The aim of this paper is to examine the changes in the statistical parameters of rainfall at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA at 0.25 degree, 3 hourly grid rainfall data for a summer is aggregated to 0.5,1.0, 2.0 and 2.5 degree and at 6, 12, 24 hourly, pentad (five days and monthly resolutions. The probability distributions (PDF and cumulative distribution functions(CDF of rain amount at these resolutions are computed and modeled as a mixed distribution. Parameters of the PDFs are compared using the Kolmogrov-Smironov (KS test, both for the mixed and the marginal distribution. These distributions are shown to be distinct. The marginal distributions are fitted with Lognormal and Gamma distributions and it is found that the Gamma distributions fit much better than the Lognormal.

  2. The Impact of Spatial and Temporal Resolutions in Tropical Summer Rainfall Distribution: Preliminary Results (United States)

    Liu, Q.; Chiu, L. S.; Hao, X.


    The abundance or lack of rainfall affects peoples' life and activities. As a major component of the global hydrological cycle (Chokngamwong & Chiu, 2007), accurate representations at various spatial and temporal scales are crucial for a lot of decision making processes. Climate models show a warmer and wetter climate due to increases of Greenhouse Gases (GHG). However, the models' resolutions are often too coarse to be directly applicable to local scales that are useful for mitigation purposes. Hence disaggregation (downscaling) procedures are needed to transfer the coarse scale products to higher spatial and temporal resolutions. The aim of this paper is to examine the changes in the statistical parameters of rainfall at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) at 0.25 degree, 3 hourly grid rainfall data for a summer is aggregated to 0.5,1.0, 2.0 and 2.5 degree and at 6, 12, 24 hourly, pentad (five days) and monthly resolutions. The probability distributions (PDF) and cumulative distribution functions(CDF) of rain amount at these resolutions are computed and modeled as a mixed distribution. Parameters of the PDFs are compared using the Kolmogrov-Smironov (KS) test, both for the mixed and the marginal distribution. These distributions are shown to be distinct. The marginal distributions are fitted with Lognormal and Gamma distributions and it is found that the Gamma distributions fit much better than the Lognormal.

  3. High-resolution stochastic generation of extreme rainfall intensity for urban drainage modelling applications (United States)

    Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo


    Urban drainage response is highly dependent on the spatial and temporal structure of rainfall. Therefore, measuring and simulating rainfall at a high spatial and temporal resolution is a fundamental step to fully assess urban drainage system reliability and related uncertainties. This is even more relevant when considering extreme rainfall events. However, the current space-time rainfall models have limitations in capturing extreme rainfall intensity statistics for short durations. Here, we use the STREAP (Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) model, which is a novel stochastic rainfall generator for simulating high-resolution rainfall fields that preserve the spatio-temporal structure of rainfall and its statistical characteristics. The model enables a generation of rain fields at 102 m and minute scales in a fast and computer-efficient way matching the requirements for hydrological analysis of urban drainage systems. The STREAP model was applied successfully in the past to generate high-resolution extreme rainfall intensities over a small domain. A sub-catchment in the city of Luzern (Switzerland) was chosen as a case study to: (i) evaluate the ability of STREAP to disaggregate extreme rainfall intensities for urban drainage applications; (ii) assessing the role of stochastic climate variability of rainfall in flow response and (iii) evaluate the degree of non-linearity between extreme rainfall intensity and system response (i.e. flow) for a small urban catchment. The channel flow at the catchment outlet is simulated by means of a calibrated hydrodynamic sewer model.

  4. Caribbean Sea rainfall variability during the rainy season and relationship to the equatorial Pacific and tropical Atlantic SST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Renguang [Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Kirtman, Ben P. [University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, FL (United States)


    The present study investigates the Caribbean Sea rainfall variability during the early and late rainy seasons and its association with sea surface temperature (SST) and air-sea interaction based on observational estimates, the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations, and the CFS retrospective forecasts. Analysis of the observational estimates indicates that air-sea interaction is important over the Caribbean Sea, whereas the atmospheric forcing of SST dominates over the Gulf of Mexico. The CFS simulation captures the basic elements of this observed air-sea relationship. The GFS simulation produces spurious SST forcing of the atmosphere over the Gulf of Mexico largely due to prescribing SST. The CFS forecasts capture the air-sea relationship in the late rainy season (August-October), but cannot reproduce the SST forcing of atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea in the early rainy season (May-July). An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis indicates that the leading modes of percent anomalies of the rainy season precipitation have the largest loading in the southern Caribbean Sea in observations. The model simulations and forecasts skillfully reproduce the spatial pattern, but not the temporal evolution. The Caribbean Sea rainfall variability in the early rainy season is mainly due to the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST anomalies in observations, is contributed by both the TNA and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) SST anomalies in the CFS simulation, and has an overly large impact from the EEP SST anomalies in the GFS simulation and the CFS forecasts. The observed Caribbean Sea rainfall variability in the late rainy season has a leading impact from the EEP SST anomalies, with a secondary contribution from the TNA SST anomalies. In comparison, the model simulations and forecasts overestimate the impacts of the EEP SST anomalies due to an earlier development and longer duration of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the CFS

  5. Probabilistic Analysis of Cut-Slope Stability for Tropical Red Clay of Depok, West Java as an Effect of Rainfall Duration and Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakim Sagitaningrum Fathiyah


    Full Text Available Landslide in Indonesia, specifically in Java island, occurs during rainy seasons. In Java island, it is known that the tropical red clay has the ability to stand at steep angles, while in stability analysis due to rainfall, practitioners only consider the rise of groundwater table. Previous studies states that one of the factor affecting factor of safety (FS for tropical red clay slopes is the formation of saturated zones due to matric suction. This research studies the effect of rainfall intensity and duration to FS of cut-slopes as parametric study with probabilistic analysis for different height of 10m, 20m, and 30m also slope angles of 27°, 45°, 55°, and 70°. Rainfall parameter are taken from FTUI rainfall station for advanced pattern and three-days duration of rain. Analysis of seepage uses SEEP/W and slope stability uses SLOPE/W. It is known that the significant increase of probability of failure due to the three-days rainfall is achieved at the 10m height and 70°-angled slope. Increase of the probability of failure is mainly due to rainfall infiltration which saturates the surface and pore water pressure increase until certain time where infiltration stops and turn into surface run-off.

  6. Rainfall variations over the Bay of Bengal and southern Tibetan Plateau and their connections with different tropical forcing during the early and middle summer (United States)

    Wang, Z.; Yang, S.


    Strong rainfall always occurs in the South Asia region during the summer monsoon time (May-September), especially over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Tibetan Plateau (STP). The latent heating associated with such rainfall drives large-scale circulation and further influences weather and climate anomalies over the world. Few studies have focused on the intraseasonal difference of the rainfall interannual variations. Generally, two precipitation centers appear over the BOB and STP respectively, which are corresponding to the southern and northern upward branches of the South Asian summer monsoon. Our results indicate that the interannual variability of precipitation over the BOB is consistent with that over the STP during the early summer (May-June), but it is contrary during the midsummer (July-August). In early summer, precipitation over the BOB and STP is mainly regulated by the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in tropical eastern Pacific (corresponding to the ENSO). Warm SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific weaken upward motion and further precipitation over the BOB and STP through the modulation of zonal walker circulation. However, the tropical forcing exists over the western Maritime Continent (WMC) during midsummer, which induces the contrary variations of rainfall over the BOB and STP. Warm WMC SST anomalies lead to an anticyclone over the BOB, which is unfavourable to the BOB rainfall. While the southwesterlies at the northwest of that anticyclone favor moisture transport to the Tibetan Plateau and thus an enhancement in rainfall over the STP.

  7. The preconditioning role of Tropical Atlantic Variability in the development of the ENSO teleconnection: implications for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall (United States)

    Giannini, A.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    A comparison of rainfall variability in the semi-arid Brazilian Nordeste in observations and in two sets of model simulations leads to the conclusion that the evolving interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can explain two puzzling features of ENSO's impact on the Nordeste: (1) the event-to-event unpredictability of ENSO's impact; (2) the greater impact of cold rather than warm ENSO events during the past 50 years. The explanation is in the `preconditioning' role of Tropical Atlantic Variability. When, in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO, the tropical Atlantic happens to be evolving consistently with the development expected of the ENSO teleconnection, ENSO and TAV add up to force large anomalies in Nordeste rainfall. When it happens to be evolving in opposition to the canonical development of ENSO, then the net outcome is less obvious, but also less anomalous. The more frequent occurrence of tropical Atlantic conditions consistent with those that develop during a cold ENSO event, i.e. of a negative meridional sea surface temperature gradient, explains the weaker warm ENSO and stronger cold ENSO anomalies in Nordeste rainfall of the latter part of the twentieth century. Close monitoring of the evolution of the tropical Atlantic in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO should lead to an enhanced forecast potential.

  8. Potential of deterministic and geostatistical rainfall interpolation under high rainfall variability and dry spells: case of Kenya's Central Highlands (United States)

    Kisaka, M. Oscar; Mucheru-Muna, M.; Ngetich, F. K.; Mugwe, J.; Mugendi, D.; Mairura, F.; Shisanya, C.; Makokha, G. L.


    Drier parts of Kenya's Central Highlands endure persistent crop failure and declining agricultural productivity. These have, in part, attributed to high temperatures, prolonged dry spells and erratic rainfall. Understanding spatial-temporal variability of climatic indices such as rainfall at seasonal level is critical for optimal rain-fed agricultural productivity and natural resource management in the study area. However, the predominant setbacks in analysing hydro-meteorological events are occasioned by either lack, inadequate, or inconsistent meteorological data. Like in most other places, the sole sources of climatic data in the study region are scarce and only limited to single stations, yet with persistent missing/unrecorded data making their utilization a challenge. This study examined seasonal anomalies and variability in rainfall, drought occurrence and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in the drier regions of eastern Kenyan. Rainfall data from five stations (Machang'a, Kiritiri, Kiambere and Kindaruma and Embu) were sourced from both the Kenya Meteorology Department and on-site primary recording. Owing to some experimental work ongoing, automated recording for primary dailies in Machang'a have been ongoing since the year 2000 to date; thus, Machang'a was treated as reference (for period of record) station for selection of other stations in the region. The other stations had data sets of over 15 years with missing data of less than 10 % as required by the world meteorological organization whose quality check is subject to the Centre for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) through MeteoSwiss and EMPA bodies. The dailies were also subjected to homogeneity testing to evaluate whether they came from the same population. Rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance and probability were utilized in the analyses of rainfall variability. Spline, kriging and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and

  9. Evaluate Hydrologic Response on Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Rainfall Using High Resolution Radar Rainfall Data and WRF-Hydro Model (United States)

    Gao, S.; Fang, N. Z.


    A previously developed Dynamic Moving Storm (DMS) generator is a multivariate rainfall model simulating the complex nature of precipitation field: spatial variability, temporal variability, and storm movement. Previous effort by the authors has investigated the sensitivity of DMS parameters on corresponding hydrologic responses by using synthetic storms. In this study, the DMS generator has been upgraded to generate more realistic precipitation field. The dependence of hydrologic responses on rainfall features was investigated by dissecting the precipitation field into rain cells and modifying their spatio-temporal specification individually. To retrieve DMS parameters from radar rainfall data, rain cell segmentation and tracking algorithms were respectively developed and applied on high resolution radar rainfall data (1) to spatially determine the rain cells within individual radar image and (2) to temporally analyze their dynamic behavior. Statistics of DMS parameters were established by processing a long record of rainfall data (10 years) to keep the modification on real storms within the limit of regional climatology. Empirical distributions of the DMS parameters were calculated to reveal any preferential pattern and seasonality. Subsequently, the WRF-Hydro model forced by the remodeled and modified precipitation was used for hydrologic simulation. The study area was the Upper Trinity River Basin (UTRB) watershed, Texas; and two kinds of high resolution radar data i.e. the Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) level III Digital Hybrid Reflectivity (DHR) product and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) precipitation rate product, were utilized to establish parameter statistics and to recreate/remodel historical events respectively. The results demonstrated that rainfall duration is a significant linkage between DMS parameters and their hydrologic impacts—any combination of spatiotemporal characteristics that keep rain cells longer over the catchment will produce higher

  10. Forestry and fiber crop production in the higher rainfall areas of tropical Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, I.M.; Volck, H.E.; Cameron, D.M.; Thomson, N.J.


    An analysis of the nearly 1 million square km of higher rainfall area shows that less than 4% has potential for arable agriculture or commercial forestry. Except for rain forest on the eastern Queensland coast (now largely protected), native forest has little potential for timber or pulp. Plantations of Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis offer the best potential for forest production in Queensland and Northern Territory. The most promising agricultural fiber crops for paper pulp are bagasse, which could be upgraded by mixing with pine mill wastes, and kenaf (Hibiscus cannabinus). The freight costs involved in a forestry and fiber project in northern Australia are analyzed and the possibility of some local processing is considered. (Refs. 33).

  11. Dynamical linkage of tropical and subtropical weather systems to the intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Part II: Simulations in the ENSEMBLES project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Shujie [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Rodo, Xavier [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Institut Catala de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Song, Yongjia [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Cash, Benjamin A. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)


    We assess the ability of individual models (single-model ensembles) and the multi-model ensemble (MME) in the European Union-funded ENSEMBLES project to simulate the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs; specifically in 10-20-day and 30-50-day frequency bands) of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the Western Ghats (WG) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), respectively. This assessment is made on the basis of the dynamical linkages identified from the analysis of observations in a companion study to this work. In general, all models show reasonable skill in simulating the active and break cycles of the 30-50-day ISOs over the Indian summer monsoon region. This skill is closely associated with the proper reproduction of both the northward propagation of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the variations of monsoon circulation in this band. However, the models do not manage to correctly simulate the eastward propagation of the 30-50-day ISOs in the western/central tropical Pacific and the eastward extension of the ITCZ in a northwest to southeast tilt. This limitation is closely associated with a limited capacity of models to accurately reproduce the magnitudes of intraseasonal anomalies of both the ITCZ in the Asian tropical summer monsoon regions and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Poor reproduction of the activity of the western Pacific subtropical high on intraseasonal time scales also amplify this limitation. Conversely, the models make good reproduction of the WG 10-20-day ISOs. This success is closely related to good performance of the models in the representation of the northward propagation of the ITCZ, which is partially promoted by local air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean in this higher-frequency band. Although the feature of westward propagation is generally represented in the simulated BoB 10-20-day ISOs, the air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean are spuriously active in the models. This leads to active WG rainfall, which is not

  12. Effects of rainfall exclusion on leaf gas exchange traits and osmotic adjustment in mature canopy trees of Dryobalanops aromatica (Dipterocarpaceae) in a Malaysian tropical rain forest. (United States)

    Inoue, Yuta; Ichie, Tomoaki; Kenzo, Tanaka; Yoneyama, Aogu; Kumagai, Tomo'omi; Nakashizuka, Tohru


    Climate change exposes vegetation to unusual levels of drought, risking a decline in productivity and an increase in mortality. It still remains unclear how trees and forests respond to such unusual drought, particularly Southeast Asian tropical rain forests. To understand leaf ecophysiological responses of tropical rain forest trees to soil drying, a rainfall exclusion experiment was conducted on mature canopy trees of Dryobalanops aromatica Gaertn.f. (Dipterocarpaceae) for 4 months in an aseasonal tropical rain forest in Sarawak, Malaysia. The rainfall was intercepted by using a soft vinyl chloride sheet. We compared the three control and three treatment trees with respect to leaf water use at the top of the crown, including stomatal conductance (gsmax), photosynthesis (Amax), leaf water potential (predawn: Ψpre; midday: Ψmid), leaf water potential at turgor loss point (πtlp), osmotic potential at full turgor (π100) and a bulk modulus of elasticity (ε). Measurements were taken using tree-tower and canopy-crane systems. During the experiment, the treatment trees suffered drought stress without evidence of canopy dieback in comparison with the control trees; e.g., Ψpre and Ψmid decreased with soil drying. Minimum values of Ψmid in the treatment trees decreased during the experiment, and were lower than πtlp in the control trees. However, the treatment trees also decreased their πtlp by osmotic adjustment, and the values were lower than the minimum values of their Ψmid. In addition, the treatment trees maintained gs and Amax especially in the morning, though at midday, values decreased to half those of the control trees. Decreasing leaf water potential by osmotic adjustment to maintain gs and Amax under soil drying in treatment trees was considered to represent anisohydric behavior. These results suggest that D. aromatica may have high leaf adaptability to drought by regulating leaf water consumption and maintaining turgor pressure to improve its leaf

  13. Agro-Science Journal of Tropical Agriculture, Food, Environment ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)



    Sep 3, 2009 ... Agro-Science Journal of Tropical Agriculture, Food, Environment and Extension. Volume 8 ... 3 International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, High Rainfall Station,. Onne, Rivers State ...... Biosciences proceedings. 6: 444-454.

  14. Roles of tropical SST patterns during two types of ENSO in modulating wintertime rainfall over southern China (United States)

    Xu, Kang; Huang, Qing-Lan; Tam, Chi-Yung; Wang, Weiqiang; Chen, Sheng; Zhu, Congwen


    The impacts of the eastern-Pacific (EP) and central-Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the southern China wintertime rainfall (SCWR) have been investigated. Results show that wintertime rainfall over most stations in southern China is enhanced (suppressed) during the EP (CP) El Niño, which are attributed to different atmospheric responses in the western North Pacific (WNP) and South China Sea (SCS) during two types of ENSO. When EP El Niño occurs, an anomalous low-level anticyclone is present over WNP/the Philippines region, resulting in stronger-than-normal southwesterlies over SCS. Such a wind branch acts to suppress East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and enhance moisture supply, implying surplus SCWR. During CP El Niño, however, anomalous sinking and low-level anticyclonic flow are found to cover a broad region in SCS. These circulation features are associated with moisture divergence over the northern part of SCS and suppressed SCWR. General circulation model experiments have also been conducted to study influence of various tropical sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on the EAWM atmospheric circulation. For EP El Niño, formation of anomalous low-level WNP anticyclone is jointly attributed to positive/negative SST anomalies (SSTA) over the central-to-eastern/ western equatorial Pacific. However, both positive and negative CP Niño-related-SSTA, located respectively over the central Pacific and WNP/SCS, offset each other and contribute a weak but broad-scale anticyclone centered at SCS. These results suggest that, besides the vital role of SST warming, SST cooling over SCS/WNP during two types of El Niño should be considered carefully for understanding the El Niño-EAWM relationship.

  15. Analyses of the temporal and spatial structures of heavy rainfall from a catalog of high-resolution radar rainfall fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Smith, James A.; Baeck, Mary Lynn


    that relate to size, structure and evolution of heavy rainfall. Extreme rainfall is also linked with severe weather (tornados, large hail and damaging wind). The diurnal cycle of rainfall for heavy rain days is characterized by an early peak in the largest rainfall rates, an afternoon-evening peak in rain...

  16. Hydrology and Soil Erosion in Tropical Rainforests and Pasture Lands on the Atherton Tablelands, North Queensland, Australia - a rainfall simulator study (United States)

    Joanne, Joanne; Ciesiolka, Cyril


    The Barron and Johnstone Rivers rise in the basaltic Atherton Tableland, North Queensland, Australia, and flow into the Coral Sea and Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA). Natural rainforest in this region was cleared for settlement in the early 20th century. Rapid decline in soil fertility during the 1940's and 50's forced landholders to turn to pasture based industries from row crop agriculture. Since then, these pasture based industries have intensified. The intensified land use has been linked to increases in sediment and nutrient levels in terrestrial runoff and identified as a major environmental threat to the GBRWHA, which has raised alarm for the tourist industry and resource managers. Studies linking land-use to pollutant discharge are often based on measurements and modelling of end of catchment measurements of water quality. Whilst such measurements can be a reasonable indicator of the effects of land use on pollutant discharge to waterways, they are often a gross assessment. This project used rainfall simulations to investigate the relationship between land use and management with sources and sinks of runoff and soil erosion within the Barron and Johnstone Rivers catchments. Rainfall simulations were conducted and pollutant loads measured in natural rainforest, as well as dairy and beef farming systems. The dairy farming systems included an effluent fed pasture, a high mineral fertilizer and supplementary irrigation farm, and a rainfed organic pasture that relied on tropical legumes and introduced grasses and returned organic material to the soil. One of the beef farming systems used a 7-10 day rotation with a low fertilizer regime (kikuyu mostly), while the other, used a long period- two paddock-rotation with no fertiliser and paspalum pastures. The rainforests were generally small isolated enclaves with a well developed shrub layer (1-3 m), and a presence of scattered, deciduous trees. Simulations were carried out on sites which were

  17. The impact of Indian Ocean high pressure system on rainfall and stream flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehman, S.; Nasir, H.; Zia, S.S.; Ansari, W.A.; Salam, K.; Tayyab, N.


    Centre of Action approach is very useful in getting insight of rainfall and stream flow variability of specific region. Hameed et al. showed that Inter-annual variability of Gulf Stream north wall is influenced by low Icelandic pressure system and has more statistically significant correlation than North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with longitude of Icelandic low. This study also aims to explore possible relationships between rainfall and stream flow in Collie river catchment in Southwest Western Australia (SWWA) with Indian Ocean high pressure dynamics. The relationship between rainfall and stream flow with Indian Ocean high pressure system have been investigated using correlation analysis for early winter season (MJJA), lag correlation for MJJA versus SOND rainfall and stream flow are also calculated and found significant at 95% confidence level. By investigating the relationship between COA indices with rainfall and stream flow over the period 1976-2008, significant correlations suggests that rainfall and stream flow in Collie river basin is strongly influenced by COA indices. Multiple correlations between rainfall and stream flow with Indian Ocean high pressure (IOHPS and IOHLN) is 0.7 and 0.6 respectively. Centers of Action (COA) indices explain 51% and 36% of rainfall and stream flow respectively. The correlation between rainfall and stream flow with IOHPS is -0.4 and -0.3 whereas, with IOHLN is -0.47 and -0.52 respectively. (author)

  18. Assessment of summer rainfall forecast skill in the Intra-Americas in GFDL high and low-resolution models (United States)

    Krishnamurthy, Lakshmi; Muñoz, Ángel G.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Stern, Bill; Gudgel, Rich; Zeng, Fanrong


    The Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) is an important component of the atmospheric circulation over the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) which impacts the weather and climate both locally and remotely. It influences the rainfall variability in the Caribbean, Central America, northern South America, the tropical Pacific and the continental Unites States through the transport of moisture. We make use of high-resolution coupled and uncoupled models from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate the simulation of the CLLJ and its teleconnections and further compare with low-resolution models. The high-resolution coupled model FLOR shows improvements in the simulation of the CLLJ and its teleconnections with rainfall and SST over the IAS compared to the low-resolution coupled model CM2.1. The CLLJ is better represented in uncoupled models (AM2.1 and AM2.5) forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), emphasizing the role of SSTs in the simulation of the CLLJ. Further, we determine the forecast skill for observed rainfall using both high- and low-resolution predictions of rainfall and SSTs for the July-August-September season. We determine the role of statistical correction of model biases, coupling and horizontal resolution on the forecast skill. Statistical correction dramatically improves area-averaged forecast skill. But the analysis of spatial distribution in skill indicates that the improvement in skill after statistical correction is region dependent. Forecast skill is sensitive to coupling in parts of the Caribbean, Central and northern South America, and it is mostly insensitive over North America. Comparison of forecast skill between high and low-resolution coupled models does not show any dramatic difference. However, uncoupled models show improvement in the area-averaged skill in the high-resolution atmospheric model compared to lower resolution model. Understanding and improving the forecast skill over the IAS has important implications

  19. Natural and near natural tropical forest values (United States)

    Daniel H. Henning


    This paper identifies and describes some of the values associated with tropical rain forests in their natural and near-natural conditions. Tropical rain forests are moist forests in the humid tropics where temperature and rainfall are high and the dry season is short. These closed (non-logged) and broad-leaved forests are a global resource. Located almost entirely in...

  20. High-Resolution Discharge Forecasting for Snowmelt and Rainfall Mixed Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Berezowski


    Full Text Available Discharge events induced by mixture of snowmelt and rainfall are strongly nonlinear due to consequences of rain-on-snow phenomena and snowmelt dependence on energy balance. However, they received relatively little attention, especially in high-resolution discharge forecasting. In this study, we use Random Forests models for 24 h discharge forecasting in 1 h resolution in a 105.9 km 2 urbanized catchment in NE Poland: Biala River. The forcing data are delivered by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model in 1 h temporal and 4 × 4 km spatial resolutions. The discharge forecasting models are set in two scenarios with snowmelt and rainfall and rainfall only predictors in order to highlight the effect of snowmelt on the results (both scenarios use also pre-forecast discharge based predictors. We show that inclusion of snowmelt decrease the forecast errors for longer forecasts’ lead times. Moreover, importance of discharge based predictors is higher in the rainfall only models then in the snowmelt and rainfall models. We conclude that the role of snowmelt for discharge forecasting in mixed snowmelt and rainfall environments is in accounting for nonlinear physical processes, such as initial wetting and rain on snow, which cannot be properly modelled by rainfall only.

  1. Impact of Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on Hadley Circulation Using a High-Resolution AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar


    The direct radiative effects of volcanic eruptions resulting in solar dimming, stratospheric warming, global surface cooling and reduction in rainfall are well documented. However, eruptions also cause indirect climatic impacts that are not well understood. For example, solar dimming induced by volcanic aerosols could cause changes in tropical Hadley circulation that in turn largely affect evaporation and precipitation patterns. Therefore, understanding the sensitivity of HC to volcanism is essential, as this circulation is directly related to precipitation changes in the tropics and with other large-scale circulations. Hence, to better understand the post-eruption sensitivity of HC and associated changes in the hydrologic cycle, simulations for the El Chichón and Pinatubo tropical eruptions were conducted using a high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM), effectively at 25 and 50 km grid spacing. The model simulated results are then compared with observational and reanalysis products. Both the model and observational analysis show posteruption weakening, shrinking and equatorward displacement of the updraft branch of HC caused by the equatorward shift of midlatitude jets and hemispheric land-sea thermal gradient. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is tightly coupled to the rising branch of HC, hence, post-eruption weakening and equatorward displacement of HC cause weakening of ITCZ that adversely affects rainfall distribution in the monsoon-fed regions, especially the South Asian and African tropical rain-belt regions. The modelproduced post-eruption distribution of cloud contents suggests a southward shift of ITCZ. The HIRAM results are largely in agreement with the reanalysis, observations and previous studies indicating that this model performs reasonably well in reproducing the global and regional-scale dynamic changes caused by volcanic radiative forcing.

  2. Impact of Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on Hadley Circulation Using a High-Resolution AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar


    The direct radiative effects of volcanic eruptions resulting in solar dimming, stratospheric warming, global surface cooling and reduction in rainfall are well documented. However, eruptions also cause indirect climatic impacts that are not well understood. For example, solar dimming induced by volcanic aerosols could cause changes in tropical Hadley circulation that in turn largely affect evaporation and precipitation patterns. Therefore, understanding the sensitivity of HC to volcanism is essential, as this circulation is directly related to precipitation changes in the tropics and with other large-scale circulations. Hence, to better understand the post-eruption sensitivity of HC and associated changes in the hydrologic cycle, simulations for the El Chichón and Pinatubo tropical eruptions were conducted using a high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM), effectively at 25 and 50 km grid spacing. The model simulated results are then compared with observational and reanalysis products. Both the model and observational analysis show posteruption weakening, shrinking and equatorward displacement of the updraft branch of HC caused by the equatorward shift of midlatitude jets and hemispheric land-sea thermal gradient. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is tightly coupled to the rising branch of HC, hence, post-eruption weakening and equatorward displacement of HC cause weakening of ITCZ that adversely affects rainfall distribution in the monsoon-fed regions, especially the South Asian and African tropical rain-belt regions. The modelproduced post-eruption distribution of cloud contents suggests a southward shift of ITCZ. The HIRAM results are largely in agreement with the reanalysis, observations and previous studies indicating that this model performs reasonably well in reproducing the global and regional-scale dynamic changes caused by volcanic radiative forcing.

  3. Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools: Tropical Island Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    Design guidelines outline high performance principles for the new or retrofit design of K-12 schools in tropical island climates. By incorporating energy improvements into construction or renovation plans, schools can reduce energy consumption and costs.

  4. Estimating Vegetation Rainfall Interception Using Remote Sensing Observations at Very High Resolution (United States)

    Cui, Y.; Zhao, P.; Hong, Y.; Fan, W.; Yan, B.; Xie, H.


    Abstract: As an important compont of evapotranspiration, vegetation rainfall interception is the proportion of gross rainfall that is intercepted, stored and subsequently evaporated from all parts of vegetation during or following rainfall. Accurately quantifying the vegetation rainfall interception at a high resolution is critical for rainfall-runoff modeling and flood forecasting, and is also essential for understanding its further impact on local, regional, and even global water cycle dynamics. In this study, the Remote Sensing-based Gash model (RS-Gash model) is developed based on a modified Gash model for interception loss estimation using remote sensing observations at the regional scale, and has been applied and validated in the upper reach of the Heihe River Basin of China for different types of vegetation. To eliminate the scale error and the effect of mixed pixels, the RS-Gash model is applied at a fine scale of 30 m with the high resolution vegetation area index retrieved by using the unified model of bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF-U) for the vegetation canopy. Field validation shows that the RMSE and R2 of the interception ratio are 3.7% and 0.9, respectively, indicating the model's strong stability and reliability at fine scale. The temporal variation of vegetation rainfall interception loss and its relationship with precipitation are further investigated. In summary, the RS-Gash model has demonstrated its effectiveness and reliability in estimating vegetation rainfall interception. When compared to the coarse resolution results, the application of this model at 30-m fine resolution is necessary to resolve the scaling issues as shown in this study. Keywords: rainfall interception; remote sensing; RS-Gash analytical model; high resolution

  5. Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools: Tropical Island Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    The Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools--Tropical Island Climates provides school boards, administrators, and design staff with guidance to help them make informed decisions about energy and environmental issues important to school systems and communities. These design guidelines outline high performance principles for the new or retrofit design of your K-12 school in tropical island climates. By incorporating energy improvements into their construction or renovation plans, schools can significantly reduce energy consumption and costs.

  6. Long term changes in flooding and heavy rainfall associated with North Atlantic tropical cyclones: Roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (United States)

    Aryal, Yog N.; Villarini, Gabriele; Zhang, Wei; Vecchi, Gabriel A.


    The aim of this study is to examine the contribution of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) to flooding and heavy rainfall across the continental United States. Analyses highlight the spatial variability in these hazards, their temporal changes in terms of frequency and magnitude, and their connection to large-scale climate, in particular to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use long-term stream and rain gage measurements, and our analyses are based on annual maxima (AMs) and peaks-over-threshold (POTs). TCs contribute to ∼20-30% of AMs and POTs over Florida and coastal areas of the eastern United States, and the contribution decreases as we move inland. We do not detect statistically significant trends in the magnitude or frequency of TC floods. Regarding the role of climate, NAO and ENSO do not play a large role in controlling the frequency and magnitude of TC flooding. The connection between heavy rainfall and TCs is comparable to what observed in terms of flooding. Unlike flooding, NAO plays a significant role in TC-related extreme rainfall along the U.S. East Coast, while ENSO is most strongly linked to the TC precipitation in Texas.

  7. Impacts of the leading modes of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly on sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer (United States)

    Liu, Senfeng; Duan, Anmin


    The two leading modes of the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly are the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM) from March to August. In this paper, the relationship between the TIO SST anomaly and the sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer is investigated by using correlation analysis and composite analysis based on multi-source observation data from 1979 to 2013, together with numerical simulations from an atmospheric general circulation model. The results indicate that the impacts of the IOBM on the circulation and rainfall over East Asia vary remarkably from spring to summer. The anomalous anticyclone over the tropical Northwest Pacific induced by the warm IOBM is closely linked with the Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific teleconnection pattern, which persists from March to August. In the upper troposphere over East Asia, the warm phase of the IOBM generates a significant anticyclonic response from March to May. In June and July, however, the circulation response is characterized by enhanced subtropical westerly flow. A distinct anomalous cyclone is found in August. Overall, the IOBM can exert significant influence on the western North Pacific subtropical high, the South Asian high, and the East Asian jet, which collectively modulate the precipitation anomaly over East Asia. In contrast, the effects of the IODM on the climate anomaly over East Asia are relatively weak in boreal spring and summer. Therefore, studying the impacts of the TIO SST anomaly on the climate anomaly in East Asia should take full account of the different sub-seasonal response during boreal spring and summer.

  8. High Severity Wildfire Effect On Rainfall Infiltration And Runoff: A Cellular Automata Based Simulation (United States)

    Vergara-Blanco, J. E.; Leboeuf-Pasquier, J.; Benavides-Solorio, J. D. D.


    A simulation software that reproduces rainfall infiltration and runoff for a storm event in a particular forest area is presented. A cellular automaton is utilized to represent space and time. On the time scale, the simulation is composed by a sequence of discrete time steps. On the space scale, the simulation is composed of forest surface cells. The software takes into consideration rain intensity and length, individual forest cell soil absorption capacity evolution, and surface angle of inclination. The software is developed with the C++ programming language. The simulation is executed on a 100 ha area within La Primavera Forest in Jalisco, Mexico. Real soil texture for unburned terrain and high severity wildfire affected terrain is employed to recreate the specific infiltration profile. Historical rainfall data of a 92 minute event is used. The Horton infiltration equation is utilized for infiltration capacity calculation. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is employed to reproduce the surface topography. The DEM is displayed with a 3D mesh graph where individual surface cells can be observed. The plot colouring renders water content development at the cell level throughout the storm event. The simulation shows that the cumulative infiltration and runoff which take place at the surface cell level depend on the specific storm intensity, fluctuation and length, overall terrain topography, cell slope, and soil texture. Rainfall cumulative infiltration for unburned and high severity wildfire terrain are compared: unburned terrain exhibits a significantly higher amount of rainfall infiltration.It is concluded that a cellular automaton can be utilized with a C++ program to reproduce rainfall infiltration and runoff under diverse soil texture, topographic and rainfall conditions in a forest setting. This simulation is geared for an optimization program to pinpoint the locations of a series of forest land remediation efforts to support reforestation or to minimize runoff.

  9. Performance of high-resolution X-band radar for rainfall measurement in The Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Z. van de Beek


    Full Text Available This study presents an analysis of 195 rainfall events gathered with the X-band weather radar SOLIDAR and a tipping bucket rain gauge network near Delft, The Netherlands, between May 1993 and April 1994. The aim of this paper is to present a thorough analysis of a climatological dataset using a high spatial (120 m and temporal (16 s resolution X-band radar. This makes it a study of the potential for high-resolution rainfall measurements with non-polarimetric X-band radar over flat terrain. An appropriate radar reflectivity – rain rate relation is derived from measurements of raindrop size distributions and compared with radar – rain gauge data. The radar calibration is assessed using a long-term comparison of rain gauge measurements with corresponding radar reflectivities as well as by analyzing the evolution of the stability of ground clutter areas over time. Three different methods for ground clutter correction as well as the effectiveness of forward and backward attenuation correction algorithms have been studied. Five individual rainfall events are discussed in detail to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of high-resolution X-band radar and the effectiveness of the presented correction methods. X-band radar is found to be able to measure the space-time variation of rainfall at high resolution, far greater than what can be achieved by rain gauge networks or a typical operational C-band weather radar. On the other hand, SOLIDAR can suffer from receiver saturation, wet radome attenuation as well as signal loss along the path. During very strong convective situations the signal can even be lost completely. In combination with several rain gauges for quality control, high resolution X-band radar is considered to be suitable for rainfall monitoring over relatively small (urban catchments. These results offer great prospects for the new high resolution polarimetric doppler X-band radar IDRA.

  10. Influence of declining mean annual rainfall on the behavior and yield of sediment and particulate organic carbon from tropical watersheds (United States)

    Ayron M. Strauch; Richard A. MacKenzie; Christian P. Giardina; Gregory L. Bruland


    The capacity to forecast climate and land-use driven changes to runoff, soil erosion and sediment transport in the tropics is hindered by a lack of long-term data sets and model study systems. To address these issues we utilized three watersheds characterized by similar shape, geology, soils, vegetation cover, and land use arranged across a 900 mm gradient in mean...

  11. 20-50-day oscillation of summer Yangtze rainfall in response to intraseasonal variations in the subtropical high over the western North Pacific and South China Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mao, Jiangyu; Wu, Guoxiong [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), P.O. Box 9804, Beijing (China); Sun, Zhang [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), P.O. Box 9804, Beijing (China); Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory, Hangzhou (China)


    The spatio-temporal variability in summer rainfall within eastern China is identified based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of daily rain-gauge precipitation data for the period 1979-2003. Spatial coherence of rainfall is found in the Yangtze Basin, and a wavelet transform is applied to the corresponding principal component to capture the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of Yangtze rainfall. The ensemble mean wavelet spectrum, representing statistically significant intraseasonal variability, shows a predominant oscillation in summer Yangtze rainfall with a period of 20-50 days; a 10-20-day oscillation is pronounced during June and July. This finding suggests that the 20-50-day oscillation is a major agent in regulating summer Yangtze rainfall. Composite analyses reveal that the 20-50-day oscillation of summer Yangtze rainfall arises in response to intraseasonal variations in the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), which in turn is modulated by a Rossby wave-like coupled circulation-convection system that propagates northward and northwestward from the equatorial western Pacific. When an anomalous cyclone associated with this Rossby wave-like system reaches the South China Sea (SCS) and Philippine Sea, the WNPSH retreats northeastward due to a reduction in local pressure. Under these conditions, strong monsoonal southwesterlies blow mainly toward the SCS-Philippine Sea, while dry conditions form in the Yangtze Basin, with a pronounced divergent flow pattern. In contrast, the movement of an anomalous anticyclone over the SCS-Philippine Sea results in the southwestward extension of the WNPSH; consequently, the tropical monsoonal southwesterlies veer to the northeast over the SCS and then converge toward the Yangtze Basin, producing wet conditions. Therefore, the 20-50-day oscillation of Yangtze rainfall is also manifest as a seesaw pattern in convective anomalies between the Yangtze Basin and the SCS-Philippine Sea. A considerable zonal

  12. Relationships between copepod community structure, rainfall regimes, and hydrological variables in a tropical mangrove estuary (Amazon coast, Brazil) (United States)

    Magalhães, André; Pereira, Luci Cajueiro Carneiro; da Costa, Rauquírio Marinho


    The influence of rainfall and hydrological variables on the abundance and diversity of the copepod community was investigated on a monthly basis over an annual cycle in the Taperaçu mangrove estuary. In general, the results show that there were no clear spatial or tidal patterns in any biological variables during the study period, which was related to the reduced horizontal gradient in abiotic parameters, determined mainly by the morphological and morphodynamic features of the estuary. Nevertheless, seasonal and monthly trends were recorded in both the hydrological data and the abundance of the dominant copepod species. In particular, Pseudodiaptomus marshi (6,004.6 ± 22,231.6 ind m-3; F = 5.0, p < 0.05) and Acartia tonsa (905.6 ± 2,400.9 ind m-3; F = 14.6, p < 0.001) predominated during the rainy season, whereas Acartia lilljeborgii (750.8 ± 808.3 ind m-3; U = 413.0, p < 0.01) was the most abundant species in the dry season. A distinct process of succession was observed in the relative abundance of these species, driven by the shift in the rainfall regime, which affected hydrological, in particular salinity, and consequently the abundance of copepod species. We suggest that this may be a general pattern governing the dynamics of copepod populations in the estuaries of the Brazilian Amazonian region.

  13. Tropical Cyclones Cause CaCO3 Undersaturation of Coral Reef Seawater in a High-CO2 World (United States)

    Manzello, D.; Enochs, I.; Carlton, R.; Musielewicz, S.; Gledhill, D. K.


    Ocean acidification is the global decline in seawater pH and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) saturation state (Ω) due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the world's oceans. Acidification impairs CaCO3 shell and skeleton construction by marine organisms. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable, as they are constructed by the CaCO3 skeletons of corals and other calcifiers. We understand relatively little about how coral reefs will respond to ocean acidification in combination with other disturbances, such as tropical cyclones. Seawater carbonate chemistry data collected from two reefs in the Florida Keys before, during, and after Tropical Storm Isaac provide the most thorough data to-date on how tropical cyclones affect the seawater CO2-system of coral reefs. Tropical Storm Isaac caused both an immediate and prolonged decline in seawater pH. Aragonite saturation state was depressed by 1.0 for a full week after the storm impact. Based on current 'business-as-usual' CO2 emissions scenarios, we show that tropical cyclones with high rainfall and runoff can cause periods of undersaturation (Ω negatively impact the structural persistence of coral reefs over this century.

  14. Synchronous fire activity in the tropical high Andes: an indication of regional climate forcing. (United States)

    Román-Cuesta, R M; Carmona-Moreno, C; Lizcano, G; New, M; Silman, M; Knoke, T; Malhi, Y; Oliveras, I; Asbjornsen, H; Vuille, M


    Global climate models suggest enhanced warming of the tropical mid and upper troposphere, with larger temperature rise rates at higher elevations. Changes in fire activity are amongst the most significant ecological consequences of rising temperatures and changing hydrological properties in mountainous ecosystems, and there is a global evidence of increased fire activity with elevation. Whilst fire research has become popular in the tropical lowlands, much less is known of the tropical high Andean region (>2000 masl, from Colombia to Bolivia). This study examines fire trends in the high Andes for three ecosystems, the Puna, the Paramo and the Yungas, for the period 1982-2006. We pose three questions: (i) is there an increased fire response with elevation? (ii) does the El Niño- Southern Oscillation control fire activity in this region? (iii) are the observed fire trends human driven (e.g., human practices and their effects on fuel build-up) or climate driven? We did not find evidence of increased fire activity with elevation but, instead, a quasicyclic and synchronous fire response in Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, suggesting the influence of high-frequency climate forcing on fire responses on a subcontinental scale, in the high Andes. ENSO variability did not show a significant relation to fire activity for these three countries, partly because ENSO variability did not significantly relate to precipitation extremes, although it strongly did to temperature extremes. Whilst ENSO did not individually lead the observed regional fire trends, our results suggest a climate influence on fire activity, mainly through a sawtooth pattern of precipitation (increased rainfall before fire-peak seasons (t-1) followed by drought spells and unusual low temperatures (t0), which is particularly common where fire is carried by low fuel loads (e.g., grasslands and fine fuel). This climatic sawtooth appeared as the main driver of fire trends, above local human influences and fuel build

  15. Intake of 238U and 232Th through the consumption of foodstuffs by tribal populations practicing slash and burn agriculture in an extremely high rainfall area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jha, S.K.; Gothankar, S.; Iongwai, P.S.; Kharbuli, B.; War, S.A.; Puranik, V.D.


    The concentration of naturally occurring radionuclides 232 Th, 238 U was determined using Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) in different food groups namely cereals, vegetables, leafy vegetables, roots and tubers cultivated and consumed by tribal population residing around the proposed uranium mine. The study area is a part of rural area K. P. Mawthabah (Domiasiat) in the west Khasi Hills District of Meghalaya, India located in the tropical region of high rainfall that remains steeped in tribal tradition without much outside influence. Agriculture by Jhum (slash and burn) cultivation and animal husbandry are the main occupation of the tribal populations. A total of 89 samples from locally grown food products were analyzed. The concentration of 238 U and 232 Th in the soil of the study area was found to vary 1.6–15.5 and 2.0–5.0 times respectively to the average mean value observed in India. The estimated daily dietary intake of 238 U and 232 Th were 2.0 μg d −1 (25 mBq d −1 ) and 3.4 μg d −1 (14 mBq d −1 ) is comparable with reported range 0.5–5.0 μg d −1 and 0.15–3.5 μg d −1 respectively for the Asian population. - Highlights: ► 232 Th, 238 U were determined using Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA). ► Study area located in the tropical region of high rainfall that remains steeped in tribal tradition. ► Agriculture by Jhum (slash and burn) cultivation and animal husbandry are the main occupation of the tribal populations. ► The estimated daily intake of 232 Th and 238 U in high rainfall area was found to be 3.4 and 2.0 μg respectively.

  16. Quantitative precipitation climatology over the Himalayas by using Precipitation Radar on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and a dense network of rain-gauges (United States)

    Yatagai, A.


    Quantified grid observation data at a reasonable resolution are indispensable for environmental monitoring as well as for predicting future change of mountain environment. However quantified datasets have not been available for the Himalayan region. Hence we evaluate climatological precipitation data around the Himalayas by using Precipitation Radar (PR) data acquired by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) over 10 years of observation. To validate and adjust these patterns, we used a dense network of rain gauges collected by the Asian Precipitation—Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE Water Resources) project ( We used more than 2600 stations which have more than 10-year monthly precipitation over the Himalayan region (75E-105E, 20-36N) including country data of Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Pakistan, India, Myanmar, and China. The region we studied is so topographically complicated that horizontal patterns are not uniform. Therefore, every path data of PR2A25 (near-surface rain) was averaged in a 0.05-degree grid and a 10-year monthly average was computed (hereafter we call PR). On the other hand, for rain-gauge, we first computed cell averages if each 0.05-degree grid cell has 10 years observation or more. Here we refer to the 0.05-degree rain-gauge climatology data as RG data. On the basis of comparisons between the RG and PR composite values, we defined the parameters of the regressions to correct the monthly climatology value based on the rain gauge observations. Compared with the RG, the PR systematically underestimated precipitation by 28-38% in summer (July-September). Significant correlation between TRMM/PR and rain-gauge data was found for all months, but the correlation is relatively low in winter. The relationship is investigated for different elevation zones, and the PR was found to underestimate RG data in most zones, except for certain zones in

  17. Effects of sample size on estimation of rainfall extremes at high temperatures (United States)

    Boessenkool, Berry; Bürger, Gerd; Heistermann, Maik


    High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.

  18. Effects of sample size on estimation of rainfall extremes at high temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Boessenkool


    Full Text Available High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius–Clapeyron (CC scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.

  19. Periods of high intensity rainfall and the safety of the Angra dos Reis nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolli, D.


    The high precipitation rates aggravate the consequences of hypothetical accidental releases of radioactive material from the Angra dos Reis Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), as determined by probabilistic risk assessment. A 30-year rainfall series was analysed, aiming at calculating the probability of occurring a given amount q of precipitation during a certain period of n days. The nine highest precipitation amounts have also been determined. The results show there was a rainier climate in the '50 s and '60 s than in the '70 s and '80 s. The risk of catastrophic landslide has been enhanced as an environmental impact of the construction of the Rio-Santos highway and NPP which have not yet gone through an abnormal rainfall period. It has been suggested that criteria should be established to reduce the nuclear power and shut down the reactor when the precipitation accumulates to a dangerous limit. (author)

  20. Comparison of online and offline based merging methods for high resolution rainfall intensities (United States)

    Shehu, Bora; Haberlandt, Uwe


    Accurate rainfall intensities with high spatial and temporal resolution are crucial for urban flow prediction. Commonly, raw or bias corrected radar fields are used for forecasting, while different merging products are employed for simulation. The merging products are proven to be adequate for rainfall intensities estimation, however their application in forecasting is limited as they are developed for offline mode. This study aims at adapting and refining the offline merging techniques for the online implementation, and at comparing the performance of these methods for high resolution rainfall data. Radar bias correction based on mean fields and quantile mapping are analyzed individually and also are implemented in conditional merging. Special attention is given to the impact of different spatial and temporal filters on the predictive skill of all methods. Raw radar data and kriging interpolation of station data are considered as a reference to check the benefit of the merged products. The methods are applied for several extreme events in the time period 2006-2012 caused by different meteorological conditions, and their performance is evaluated by split sampling. The study area is located within the 112 km radius of Hannover radar in Lower Saxony, Germany and the data set constitutes of 80 recording stations in 5 min time steps. The results of this study reveal how the performance of the methods is affected by the adjustment of radar data, choice of merging method and selected event. Merging techniques can be used to improve the performance of online rainfall estimation, which gives way to the application of merging products in forecasting.

  1. Experimental and model analysis of evapotranspiration and percolation losses in present and future rainfall scenarios in seasonally dry tropics (United States)

    Lima, J. D.; Gondim, P. S.; Silva, R. A.; Gomes, C. A.; Souza, E. S.; Vico, G.; Soares, W. A.; Feng, X.; Montenegro, S. M.; Antonino, A. C.; Porporato, A.


    Evapotranspiration losses with their link to the surface energy balance are a major determinant of the ecohydrological conditions of vegetation, especially in semi-arid ecosystems and crops. Grassland ecosystems account for approximately 32% of global natural vegetation, and cover 170 million ha in Brazil, with 2.5 million ha in the Pernambuco State of the semiarid-NE Brazil. The water balance (WB) and Bowen ratio - energy balance (EB) methods were used in conjunction to lysimeters and eddy covariance methods to come up with reliable estimates for water fluxes in the conditions of extreme seasonal and interannual variability of NE Brazil. The SiSPAT (Simple Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Transfer Model) model was also used to help quantify the seasonal and diurnal variations in energy and water vapour exchanges over grasslands. The ET estimates were obtained with WB and EB methods during the wet and dry season in a grassland in NE Brazil, using a rain gauge, a pyranometer, a net radiometer and sensors for measuring air temperature and relative humidity at two levels, as well as automated sensors for measuring soil water content at depths of 0.10, 0.20, 0.30 and 0.40 m. During the dry period, the low stored soil water limited the grass production and LAI, and as a consequence most of the net radiation (62%) was consumed in sensible heat flux (H) compared to during the wet period (52%). In both seasons, the water flow in the lower limit of soil (z = 0.30 m) occurred only in the downward direction, losing 23.68 mm by drainage in wet period and only 0.19 mm in dry period. The best results for evapotranspiration were obtained with the EB method and the SiSPAT model. These results were then used to estimate the hydrologic partitioning in future climatic conditions where seasonal and interannual rainfall variability is predicted to increase.

  2. Geo-statistical model of Rainfall erosivity by using high temporal resolution precipitation data in Europe (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine


    Rainfall erosivity (R-factor) is among the 6 input factors in estimating soil erosion risk by using the empirical Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). R-factor is a driving force for soil erosion modelling and potentially can be used in flood risk assessments, landslides susceptibility, post-fire damage assessment, application of agricultural management practices and climate change modelling. The rainfall erosivity is extremely difficult to model at large scale (national, European) due to lack of high temporal resolution precipitation data which cover long-time series. In most cases, R-factor is estimated based on empirical equations which take into account precipitation volume. The Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) is the output of an extensive data collection of high resolution precipitation data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland taking place during 2013-2014 in collaboration with national meteorological/environmental services. Due to different temporal resolutions of the data (5, 10, 15, 30, 60 minutes), conversion equations have been applied in order to homogenise the database at 30-minutes interval. The 1,541 stations included in REDES have been interpolated using the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model using as covariates the climatic data (monthly precipitation, monthly temperature, wettest/driest month) from WorldClim Database, Digital Elevation Model and latitude/longitude. GPR has been selected among other candidate models (GAM, Regression Kriging) due the best performance both in cross validation (R2=0.63) and in fitting dataset (R2=0.72). The highest uncertainty has been noticed in North-western Scotland, North Sweden and Finland due to limited number of stations in REDES. Also, in highlands such as Alpine arch and Pyrenees the diversity of environmental features forced relatively high uncertainty. The rainfall erosivity map of Europe available at 500m resolution plus the standard error

  3. Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets (United States)

    Adler, R.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G.; Bolvin, D.; Nelkin, E.


    This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe

  4. Structural Changes and Convective Processes in Tropical Cyclones as Seen in Infrared and Water Vapor Satellite Data (United States)


    tropical depression; yellow, a tropical storm ; red, a typhoon; and purple, an extratropical cyclone (after typhoon... storm (JTWC 2012). Tropical Storm Jelawat continued into the Sea of Japan, where it completed extratropical transition (JTWC 2012...including strong winds, storm surge, high waves, and heavy rainfall, threaten archipelagos, densely crowded coastlines, and naval forces ashore and

  5. Sensitivity of point scale surface runoff predictions to rainfall resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Hearman


    averaged rainfall under these soil and rainfall conditions and predictions of larger scale phenomena such as hillslope runoff and runon. It offers insight into how rainfall resolution can affect predicted amounts of water entering the soil and thus soil water storage and drainage, possibly changing our understanding of the ecological functioning of the system or predictions of agri-chemical leaching. The application of this sensitivity analysis to different rainfall regions in Western Australia showed that locations in the tropics with higher intensity rainfalls are more likely to have differences in infiltration excess predictions with different rainfall resolutions and that a general understanding of the prevailing rainfall conditions and the soil's infiltration capacity can help in deciding whether high rainfall resolutions (below 1 h are required for accurate surface runoff predictions.

  6. First results from comparison of rainfall estimations by GPM IMERG with rainfall measurements from the WegenerNet high density network (United States)

    Oo, Sungmin; Foelsche, Ulrich; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Fuchsberger, Jürgen


    The research level products of the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG "Final" run datasets) were compared with rainfall measurements from the WegenerNet high density network as part of ground validation (GV) projects of GPM missions. The WegenerNet network comprises 151 ground level weather stations in an area of 15 km × 20 km in south-eastern Austria (Feldbach region, ˜46.93° N, ˜15.90° E) designed to serve as a long-term monitoring and validation facility for weather and climate research and applications. While the IMERG provides rainfall estimations every half hour at 0.1° resolution, the WegenerNet network measures rainfall every 5 minutes at around 2 km2 resolution and produces 200 m × 200 m gridded datasets. The study was conducted on the domain of the WegenerNet network; eight IMERG grids are overlapped with the network, two of which are entirely covered by the WegenerNet (40 and 39 stations in each grid). We investigated data from April to September of the years 2014 to 2015; the date of first two years after the launch of the GPM Core Observatory. Since the network has a flexibility to work with various spatial and temporal scales, the comparison could be conducted on average-points to pixel basis at both sub-daily and daily timescales. This presentation will summarize the first results of the comparison and future plans to explore the characteristics of errors in the IMERG datasets.

  7. Critical Phenomena of Rainfall in Ecuador (United States)

    Serrano, Sh.; Vasquez, N.; Jacome, P.; Basile, L.


    Self-organized criticality (SOC) is characterized by a power law behavior over complex systems like earthquakes and avalanches. We study rainfall using data of one day, 3 hours and 10 min temporal resolution from INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia) station at Izobamba, DMQ (Metropolitan District of Quito), satellite data over Ecuador from Tropical Rainfall Measure Mission (TRMM,) and REMMAQ (Red Metropolitana de Monitoreo Atmosferico de Quito) meteorological stations over, respectively. Our results show a power law behavior of the number of rain events versus mm of rainfall measured for the high resolution case (10 min), and as the resolution decreases this behavior gets lost. This statistical property is the fingerprint of a self-organized critical process (Peter and Christensen, 2002) and may serve as a benchmark for models of precipitation based in phase transitions between water vapor and precipitation (Peter and Neeling, 2006).

  8. Rainfall Characteristics and Regionalization in Peninsular Malaysia Based on a High Resolution Gridded Data Set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chee Loong Wong


    Full Text Available Daily gridded rainfall data over Peninsular Malaysia are delineated using an objective clustering algorithm, with the objective of classifying rainfall grids into groups of homogeneous regions based on the similarity of the rainfall annual cycles. It has been demonstrated that Peninsular Malaysia can be statistically delineated into eight distinct rainfall regions. This delineation is closely associated with the topographic and geographic characteristics. The variation of rainfall over the Peninsula is generally characterized by bimodal variations with two peaks, i.e., a primary peak occurring during the autumn transitional period and a secondary peak during the spring transitional period. The east coast zones, however, showed a single peak during the northeast monsoon (NEM. The influence of NEM is stronger compared to the southwest monsoon (SWM. Significantly increasing rainfall trends at 95% confidence level are not observed in all regions during the NEM, with exception of northwest zone (R1 and coastal band of west coast interior region (R3. During SWM, most areas have become drier over the last three decades. The study identifies higher variation of mean monthly rainfall over the east coast regions, but spatially, the rainfall is uniformly distributed. For the southwestern coast and west coast regions, a larger range of coefficients of variation is mostly obtained during the NEM, and to a smaller extent during the SWM. The inland region received least rainfall in February, but showed the largest spatial variation. The relationship between rainfall and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO was examined based on the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI. Although the concurrent relationships between rainfall in the different regions and ENSO are generally weak with negative correlations, the rainfall shows stronger positive correlation with preceding ENSO signals with a time lag of four to eight months.

  9. A High-Resolution ENSO-Driven Rainfall Record Derived From an Exceptionally Fast Growing Stalagmite From Niue Island (South Pacific) (United States)

    Troy, S.; Aharon, P.; Lambert, W. J.


    El Niño-Southern Oscillation's (ENSO) dominant control over the present global climate and its unpredictable response to a global warming makes the study of paleo-ENSO important. So far corals, spanning the Tropical Pacific Ocean, are the most commonly used geological archives of paleo-ENSO. This is because corals typically exhibit high growth rates (>1 cm/yr), and reproduce reliably surface water temperatures at sub-annual resolution. However there are limitations to coral archives because their time span is relatively brief (in the order of centuries), thus far making a long and continuous ENSO record difficult to achieve. On the other hand stalagmites from island settings can offer long and continuous records of ENSO-driven rainfall. Niue Island caves offer an unusual opportunity to investigate ENSO-driven paleo-rainfall because the island is isolated from other large land masses, making it untainted by continental climate artifacts, and its geographical location is within the Tropical Pacific "rain pool" (South Pacific Convergence Zone; SPCZ) that makes the rainfall variability particularly sensitive to the ENSO phase switches. We present here a δ18O and δ13C time series from a stalagmite sampled on Niue Island (19°00' S, 169°50' W) that exhibits exceptionally high growth rates (~1.2 mm/yr) thus affording a resolution comparable to corals but for much longer time spans. A precise chronology, dating back to several millennia, was achieved by U/Th dating of the stalagmite. The stalagmite was sampled using a Computer Automated Mill (CAM) at 300 μm increments in order to receive sub-annual resolution (every 3 months) and calcite powders of 50-100 μg weight were analyzed for δ18O and δ13C using a Continuous Flow Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometer (CF-IRMS). The isotope time series contains variable shifts at seasonal, inter-annual, and inter-decadal periodicities. The δ13C and δ18O yield ranges of -3.0 to -13.0 (‰ VPDB) and -3.2 to -6.2 (‰ VPDB

  10. Bias adjustment and advection interpolation of long-term high resolution radar rainfall series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Rasmussen, Michael R.


    It is generally acknowledged that in order to apply radar rainfall data for hydrological proposes adjustment against ground observations are crucial. Traditionally, radar reflectivity is transformed into rainfall rates applying a fixed reflectivity – rainfall rate relationship even though...... this is known to depend on the changing drop size distribution of the specific rain. This creates a transient bias between the radar rainfall and the ground observations due to seasonal changes of the drop size distribution as well as other atmospheric effects and effects related to the radar observational...

  11. Ajustement statistique des simulations climatiques : l'exemple des précipitations saisonnières de l'Amérique tropicaleStatistical adjustment of simulated climate: example of seasonal rainfall of tropical America. (United States)

    Moron, Vincent; Navarra, Antonio


    This study presents the skill of the seasonal rainfall of tropical America from an ensemble of three 34-year general circulation model (ECHAM 4) simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature between 1961 and 1994. The skill gives a first idea of the amount of potential predictability if the sea surface temperatures are perfectly known some time in advance. We use statistical post-processing based on the leading modes (extracted from Singular Value Decomposition of the covariance matrix between observed and simulated rainfall fields) to improve the raw skill obtained by simple comparison between observations and simulations. It is shown that 36-55 % of the observed seasonal variability is explained by the simulations on a regional basis. Skill is greatest for Brazilian Nordeste (March-May), but also for northern South America or the Caribbean basin in June-September or northern Amazonia in September-November for example.

  12. High resolution analysis of tropical forest fragmentation and its impact on the global carbon cycle (United States)

    Brinck, Katharina; Fischer, Rico; Groeneveld, Jürgen; Lehmann, Sebastian; Dantas de Paula, Mateus; Pütz, Sandro; Sexton, Joseph O.; Song, Danxia; Huth, Andreas


    Deforestation in the tropics is not only responsible for direct carbon emissions but also extends the forest edge wherein trees suffer increased mortality. Here we combine high-resolution (30 m) satellite maps of forest cover with estimates of the edge effect and show that 19% of the remaining area of tropical forests lies within 100 m of a forest edge. The tropics house around 50 million forest fragments and the length of the world's tropical forest edges sums to nearly 50 million km. Edge effects in tropical forests have caused an additional 10.3 Gt (2.1-14.4 Gt) of carbon emissions, which translates into 0.34 Gt per year and represents 31% of the currently estimated annual carbon releases due to tropical deforestation. Fragmentation substantially augments carbon emissions from tropical forests and must be taken into account when analysing the role of vegetation in the global carbon cycle.

  13. A space-time rainfall generator for highly convective Mediterranean rainstorms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Salsón


    Full Text Available Distributed hydrological models require fine resolution rainfall inputs, enhancing the practical interest of space-time rainfall models, capable of generating through numerical simulation realistic space-time rainfall intensity fields. Among different mathematical approaches, those based on point processes and built upon a convenient analytical description of the raincell as the fundamental unit, have shown to be particularly suitable and well adapted when extreme rainfall events of convective nature are considered. Starting from previous formulations, some analytical refinements have been considered, allowing practical generation of space-time rainfall intensity fields for that type of rainstorm events. Special attention is placed on the analytical description of the spatial and temporal evolution of the rainfall intensities produced by the raincells. After deriving the necessary analytical results, the seven parameters of the model have been estimated by the method of moments, for each of the 30 selected rainfall events in the Jucar River Basin (ValenciaSpain – period 1991 to 2000, using 5-min aggregated rainfall data series from an automatic raingauge network.

  14. A TRMM-Calibrated Infrared Rainfall Algorithm Applied Over Brazil (United States)

    Negri, A. J.; Xu, L.; Adler, R. F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)


    The development of a satellite infrared technique for estimating convective and stratiform rainfall and its application in studying the diurnal variability of rainfall in Amazonia are presented. The Convective-Stratiform. Technique, calibrated by coincident, physically retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), is applied during January to April 1999 over northern South America. The diurnal cycle of rainfall, as well as the division between convective and stratiform rainfall is presented. Results compare well (a one-hour lag) with the diurnal cycle derived from Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) radar-estimated rainfall in Rondonia. The satellite estimates reveal that the convective rain constitutes, in the mean, 24% of the rain area while accounting for 67% of the rain volume. The effects of geography (rivers, lakes, coasts) and topography on the diurnal cycle of convection are examined. In particular, the Amazon River, downstream of Manaus, is shown to both enhance early morning rainfall and inhibit afternoon convection. Monthly estimates from this technique, dubbed CST/TMI, are verified over a dense rain gage network in the state of Ceara, in northeast Brazil. The CST/TMI showed a high bias equal to +33% of the gage mean, indicating that possibly the TMI estimates alone are also high. The root mean square difference (after removal of the bias) equaled 36.6% of the gage mean. The correlation coefficient was 0.77 based on 72 station-months.

  15. Feasibility of High-Resolution Soil Erosion Measurements by Means of Rainfall Simulations and SfM Photogrammetry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phoebe Hänsel


    Full Text Available The silty soils of the intensively used agricultural landscape of the Saxon loess province, eastern Germany, are very prone to soil erosion, mainly caused by water erosion. Rainfall simulations, and also increasingly structure-from-motion (SfM photogrammetry, are used as methods in soil erosion research not only to assess soil erosion by water, but also to quantify soil loss. This study aims to validate SfM photogrammetry determined soil loss estimations with rainfall simulations measurements. Rainfall simulations were performed at three agricultural sites in central Saxony. Besides the measured data runoff and soil loss by sampling (in mm, terrestrial images were taken from the plots with digital cameras before and after the rainfall simulation. Subsequently, SfM photogrammetry was used to reconstruct soil surface changes due to soil erosion in terms of high resolution digital elevation models (DEMs for the pre- and post-event (resolution 1 × 1 mm. By multi-temporal change detection, the digital elevation model of difference (DoD and an averaged soil loss (in mm is received, which was compared to the soil loss by sampling. Soil loss by DoD was higher than soil loss by sampling. The method of SfM photogrammetry-determined soil loss estimations also include a comparison of three different ground control point (GCP approaches, revealing that the most complex one delivers the most reliable soil loss by DoD. Additionally, soil bulk density changes and splash erosion beyond the plot were measured during the rainfall simulation experiments in order to separate these processes and associated surface changes from the soil loss by DoD. Furthermore, splash was negligibly small, whereas higher soil densities after the rainfall simulations indicated soil compaction. By means of calculated soil surface changes due to soil compaction, the soil loss by DoD achieved approximately the same value as the soil loss by rainfall simulation.

  16. A framework of integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic models using synthetic rainfall for flash flood hazard mapping of ungauged catchments in tropical zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Lohpaisankrit


    Full Text Available Flash flood hazard maps provide a scientific support to mitigate flash flood risk. The present study develops a practical framework with the help of integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling in order to estimate the potential flash floods. We selected a small pilot catchment which has already suffered from flash floods in the past. This catchment is located in the Nan River basin, northern Thailand. Reliable meteorological and hydrometric data are missing in the catchment. Consequently, the entire upper basin of the main river was modelled with the help of the hydrological modelling system PANTA RHEI. In this basin, three monitoring stations are located along the main river. PANTA RHEI was calibrated and validated with the extreme flood events in June 2011 and July 2008, respectively. The results show a good agreement with the observed discharge data. In order to create potential flash flood scenarios, synthetic rainfall series were derived from temporal rainfall patterns based on the radar-rainfall observation and different rainfall depths from regional rainfall frequency analysis. The temporal rainfall patterns were characterized by catchment-averaged rainfall series selected from 13 rainstorms in 2008 and 2011 within the region. For regional rainfall frequency analysis, the well-known L-moments approach and related criteria were used to examine extremely climatic homogeneity of the region. According to the L-moments approach, Generalized Pareto distribution was recognized as the regional frequency distribution. The synthetic rainfall series were fed into the PANTA RHEI model. The simulated results from PANTA RHEI were provided to a 2-D hydrodynamic model (MEADFLOW, and various simulations were performed. Results from the integrated modelling framework are used in the ongoing study to regionalize and map the spatial distribution of flash flood hazards with four levels of flood severities. As an overall outcome, the presented framework

  17. Thermodynamic ocean-atmosphere Coupling and the Predictability of Nordeste rainfall (United States)

    Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Giannini, A.


    The interannual variability of rainfall in the northeastern region of Brazil, or Nordeste, is known to be very strongly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) variability, of Atlantic and Pacific origin. For this reason the potential predictability of Nordeste rainfall is high. The current generation of state-of-the-art atmospheric models can replicate the observed rainfall variability with high skill when forced with the observed record of SST variability. The correlation between observed and modeled indices of Nordeste rainfall, in the AMIP-style integrations with two such models (NSIPP and CCM3) analyzed here, is of the order of 0.8, i.e. the models explain about 2/3 of the observed variability. Assuming that thermodynamic, ocean-atmosphere heat exchange plays the dominant role in tropical Atlantic SST variability on the seasonal to interannual time scale, we analyze its role in Nordeste rainfall predictability using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. Predictability experiments initialized with observed December SST show that thermodynamic coupling plays a significant role in enhancing the persistence of SST anomalies, both in the tropical Pacific and in the tropical Atlantic. We show that thermodynamic coupling is sufficient to provide fairly accurate forecasts of tropical Atlantic SST in the boreal spring that are significantly better than the persistence forecasts. The consequences for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall are analyzed.

  18. Using High-Resolution Data to Assess Land Use Impact on Nitrate Dynamics in East African Tropical Montane Catchments (United States)

    Jacobs, Suzanne R.; Weeser, Björn; Guzha, Alphonce C.; Rufino, Mariana C.; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Windhorst, David; Breuer, Lutz


    Land use change alters nitrate (NO3-N) dynamics in stream water by changing nitrogen cycling, nutrient inputs, uptake and hydrological flow paths. There is little empirical evidence of these processes for East Africa. We collected a unique 2 year high-resolution data set to assess the effects of land use (i.e., natural forest, smallholder agriculture and commercial tea plantations) on NO3-N dynamics in three subcatchments within a headwater catchment in the Mau Forest Complex, Kenya's largest tropical montane forest. The natural forest subcatchment had the lowest NO3-N concentrations (0.44 ± 0.043 mg N L-1) with no seasonal variation. NO3-N concentrations in the smallholder agriculture (1.09 ± 0.11 mg N L-1) and tea plantation (2.13 ± 0.19 mg N L-1) subcatchments closely followed discharge patterns, indicating mobilization of NO3-N during the rainy seasons. Hysteresis patterns of rainfall events indicate a shift from subsurface flow in the natural forest to surface runoff in agricultural subcatchments. Distinct peaks in NO3-N concentrations were observed during rainfall events after a longer dry period in the forest and tea subcatchments. The high-resolution data set enabled us to identify differences in NO3-N transport of catchments under different land use, such as enhanced NO3-N inputs to the stream during the rainy season and higher annual export in agricultural subcatchments (4.9 ± 0.3 to 12.0 ± 0.8 kg N ha-1 yr-1) than in natural forest (2.6 ± 0.2 kg N ha-1 yr-1). This emphasizes the usefulness of our monitoring approach to improve the understanding of land use effects on riverine N exports in tropical landscapes, but also the need to apply such methods in other regions.

  19. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario


    Pascale, Salvatore; Lucarini, Valerio; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; ul Hasson, Shabeh


    In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to qu...

  20. Drought-avoiding plants with low water use can achieve high rainfall retention without jeopardising survival on green roofs. (United States)

    Szota, Christopher; Farrell, Claire; Williams, Nicholas S G; Arndt, Stefan K; Fletcher, Tim D


    Green roofs are increasingly being used among the suite of tools designed to reduce the volume of surface water runoff generated by cities. Plants provide the primary mechanism for restoring the rainfall retention capacity of green roofs, but selecting plants with high water use is likely to increase drought stress. Using empirically-derived plant physiological parameters, we used a water balance model to assess the trade-off between rainfall retention and plant drought stress under a 30-year climate scenario. We compared high and low water users with either drought avoidance or drought tolerance strategies. Green roofs with low water-using, drought-avoiding species achieved high rainfall retention (66-81%) without experiencing significant drought stress. Roofs planted with other strategies showed high retention (72-90%), but they also experienced >50days of drought stress per year. However, not all species with the same strategy behaved similarly, therefore selecting plants based on water use and drought strategy alone does not guarantee survival in shallow substrates where drought stress can develop quickly. Despite this, it is more likely that green roofs will achieve high rainfall retention with minimal supplementary irrigation if planted with low water users with drought avoidance strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Conditional probability of intense rainfall producing high ground concentrations from radioactive plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wayland, J.R.


    The overlap of the expanding plume of radioactive material from a hypothetical nuclear accident with rainstorms over dense population areas is considered. The conditional probability of the occurrence of hot spots from intense cellular rainfall is presented

  2. Combined use of isotopic and hydrometric data to conceptualize ecohydrological processes in a high-elevation tropical ecosystem (United States)

    Mosquera, Giovanny M; Celleri, Rolando; Lazo, Patricio X; Vache, Kellie B; Perakis, Steven; Crespo, Patricio


    Few high-elevation tropical catchments worldwide are gauged and even fewer are studied using combined hydrometric and isotopic data. Consequently, we lack information needed to understand processes governing rainfall-runoff dynamics and to predict their influence on downstream ecosystem functioning. To address this need, we present a combination of hydrometric and water stable isotopic observations in the wet Andean páramo ecosystem of the Zhurucay Ecohydrological Observatory (7.53 km2). The catchment is located in the Andes of south Ecuador between 3400 and 3900 m a.s.l. Water samples for stable isotopic analysis were collected during 2 years (May 2011 – May 2013), while rainfall and runoff measurements were continuously recorded since late 2010. The isotopic data reveal that Andosol soils predominantly situated on hillslopes drain laterally to Histosols (Andean páramo wetlands) mainly located at the valley bottom. Histosols, in turn, feed water to creeks and small rivers throughout the year, establishing hydrologic connectivity between wetlands and the drainage network. Runoff is primarily comprised of pre-event water stored in the Histosols, which is replenished by rainfall that infiltrates through the Andosols. Contributions from the mineral horizon and the top of the fractured bedrock are small and only seem to influence discharge in small catchments during low flow generation (non-exceedance flows hydrological process and 2) (Histosols) wetlands are the major source of stream runoff. Our study highlights that detailed isotopic characterization during short time periods provides valuable information about ecohydrological processes in regions where very few basins are gauged.

  3. Assessing Climate Variability using Extreme Rainfall and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    extreme frequency); the average intensity of rainfall from extreme events ... frequency and extreme intensity indices, suggesting that extreme events are more frequent and intense during years with high rainfall. The proportion of total rainfall from ...

  4. Heavy Rainfall Episodes in the Eastern Northeast Brazil Linked to Large-Scale Ocean-Atmosphere Conditions in the Tropical Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yves K. Kouadio


    Full Text Available Relationships between simultaneous occurrences of distinctive atmospheric easterly wave (EW signatures that cross the south-equatorial Atlantic, intense mesoscale convective systems (lifespan > 2 hour that propagate westward over the western south-equatorial Atlantic, and subsequent strong rainfall episodes (anomaly > 10 mm·day−1 that occur in eastern Northeast Brazil (ENEB are investigated. Using a simple diagnostic analysis, twelve cases with EW lifespan ranging between 3 and 8 days and a mean velocity of 8 m·s−1 were selected and documented during each rainy season of 2004, 2005, and 2006. These cases, which represent 50% of the total number of strong rainfall episodes and 60% of the rainfall amount over the ENEB, were concomitant with an acceleration of the trade winds over the south-equatorial Atlantic, an excess of moisture transported westward from Africa to America, and a strengthening of the convective activity in the oceanic region close to Brazil. Most of these episodes occurred during positive sea surface temperature anomaly patterns over the entire south-equatorial Atlantic and low-frequency warm conditions within the oceanic mixing layer. A real-time monitoring and the simulation of this ocean-atmosphere relationship could help in forecasting such dramatic rainfall events.

  5. Rainfall over Friuli-Venezia Giulia: High amounts and strong geographical gradients (United States)

    Ceschia, M.; Micheletti, St.; Carniel, R.


    The precipitation distribution over Friuli-Venezia Giulia — the easternmost region of Northern Italy extending from the Adriatic Sea to the Alps — has been studied. Monthly rainfall data over the region and the bordering areas of Veneto and Slovenia during the period from 1951 to 1986 have been analyzed by standard statistical methods, including cluster analysis. The overall results emphasize a distribution with rainfall increasing from the sea to the prealpine areas. The highest precipitations were recorded over the Musi-Canin range, with average values exceeding 3 200 mm per year. Noteworthy is the unforeseen subdivision of the region by the clustering procedure by means of the Angot index.

  6. Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression (United States)

    Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel


    Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum

  7. Oviposition of aquatic insects in a tropical high altitude stream. (United States)

    Rios-Touma, Blanca; Encalada, A C; Prat, N


    The persistence of aquatic insect populations in streams depends on the recruitment of larval populations from egg masses deposited by adults, especially after disturbance. However, recruitment of aquatic populations by oviposition is a process that remains unstudied in streams and rivers. The objectives of our study were to document flying and oviposition patterns of aquatic insects in a high altitude tropical stream during both dry and wet seasons. In particular we studied 1) richness and abundance of adult forms of aquatic insects flying and ovipositing; 2) number of eggs (oviposition pattern), egg mass identity, and morphology; and 3) substrate preferences by ovipositing females. We found 2,383 aquatic insects corresponding to 28 families, with dipterans representing 89% of total individuals collected. Adult insects had lower richness (28 taxa) than larval diversity (up to 52 taxa) and distinct community composition. Richness and relative abundance of most taxa (adults) were not significantly different between seasons, behaviors, diel period, or all three. During both sampling periods we found females with eggs in a total of 15 different families (13 in the dry season and 14 in the wet season). There were no significant differences in the proportion of females with eggs between seasons, diel periods, or different behaviors (flying versus ovipositing traps) of the different female taxa. Few types of egg masses were found in rocks at the stream during both seasons, and most egg masses found corresponded to families Baetidae and Chironomidae. Finally, we provide the first description of eggs masses (size, shape, color, and number of eggs per female) of gravid females (10 taxa) and those found in the stream substrate (six taxa) of Andean macroinvertebrates. This is the first study reporting oviposition, adult diversity, and oviposition patterns of aquatic insects in the Andean region.

  8. Recharge heterogeneity and high intensity rainfall events increase contamination risk for Mediterranean groundwater resources (United States)

    Hartmann, Andreas; Jasechko, Scott; Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Andreo, Bartolomé; Barberá, Juan Antonio; Brielmann, Heike; Charlier, Jean-Baptiste; Darling, George; Filippini, Maria; Garvelmann, Jakob; Goldscheider, Nico; Kralik, Martin; Kunstmann, Harald; Ladouche, Bernard; Lange, Jens; Mudarra, Matías; Francisco Martín, José; Rimmer, Alon; Sanchez, Damián; Stumpp, Christine; Wagener, Thorsten


    Karst develops through the dissolution of carbonate rock and results in pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity of hydrological processes. Karst groundwater in Europe is a major source of fresh water contributing up to half of the total drinking water supply in some countries like Austria or Slovenia. Previous work showed that karstic recharge processes enhance and alter the sensitivity of recharge to climate variability. The enhanced preferential flow from the surface to the aquifer may be followed by enhanced risk of groundwater contamination. In this study we assess the contamination risk of karst aquifers over Europe and the Mediterranean using simulated transit time distributions. Using a new type of semi-distributed model that considers the spatial heterogeneity of karst hydraulic properties, we were able to simulate karstic groundwater recharge including its heterogeneous spatiotemporal dynamics. The model is driven by gridded daily climate data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Transit time distributions are calculated using virtual tracer experiments. We evaluated our simulations by independent information on transit times derived from observed time series of water isotopes of >70 karst springs over Europe. The simulations indicate that, compared to humid, mountain and desert regions, the Mediterranean region shows a stronger risk of contamination in Europe because preferential flow processes are most pronounced given thin soil layers and the seasonal abundance of high intensity rainfall events in autumn and winter. Our modelling approach includes strong simplifications and its results cannot easily be generalized but it still highlights that the combined effects of variable climate and heterogeneous catchment properties constitute a strong risk on water quality.

  9. Sprinkling experiments to simulate high and intense rainfall for process based investigations - a comparison of two methods (United States)

    Müller, C.; Seeger, M.; Schneider, R.; Johst, M.; Casper, M.


    Land use and land management changes affect runoff and erosion dynamics. So, measures within this scope are often directed towards the mitigation of natural hazards such as floods and landslides. However, the effects of these changes (e.g. in soil physics after reforestation or a less extensive agriculture) are i) detectable first many years later or ii) hardly observable with conventional methods. Therefore, sprinkling experiments are frequently used for process based investigations of near-surface hydrological response as well as rill and interrill erosion. In this study, two different sprinkling systems have been applied under different land use and at different scales to elucidate and quantify dominant processes of runoff generation, as well as to relate them to the detachment and transport of solids. The studies take place at the micro-scale basin Zemmer and Frankelbach in Germany. At the Zemmer basin the sprinkling experiments were performed on agricultural land while the experiments in Frankelbach were performed at reforested sites. The experiments were carried out i) with a small mobile rainfall simulator of high rainfall intensities (40 mm h-1) and ii) with a larger one covering a slope segment and simulating high rainfall amounts (120 mm in 3 days). Both methods show basically comparable results. On the agricultural sites clear differences could be observed between different soil management types: contrasting to the conventionally tilled soils, deep loosened soils (in combination with conservative tillage) do not produce overland flow, but tend to transfer more water by interflow processes, retaining large amounts in the subsoil. For the forested sites runoff shows a high variability as determined the larger and the smaller rainfall simulations. This variability is rather due to the different forest and soil types than to methodologically different settings of the sprinkling systems. Both rainfall simulation systems characterized the runoff behavior in a

  10. Partitioning washoff of manure-borne fecal indicators (Escherichia coli and stanols) into splash and hydraulic components: field rainfall simulations in a tropical agro-ecosystem. (United States)

    Ribolzi, Olivier; Rochelle-Newall, Emma J.; Janeau, Jean-Louis; Viguier, Marion; Jardé, Emilie; Latsachack, Keooudone; Henri-Des-Tureaux, Thierry; Thammahacksac, Chanthamousone; Mugler, Claude; Valentin, Christian; Sengtaheuanghoung, Oloth


    off each sub-plot. Rain splash reduced infiltration rate, enhanced overland flow generation and contributed greatly to sediment detachment and entrainment. It had a strong impact on the export of E. coli and stanols from the soil surface and particle bound, rather than free E. coli dominated, although some differences were observed between treatment. High stanol concentrations were measured in overland flow waters from amended plots and specific stanol fingerprints were found between plots amended with pig or poultry manure, suggesting that stanols can be used to determine the origin of the faecal matter at the catchment scale in tropical rural environments. This work underlines the importance of rain drop impacts on the washoff of manure-borne fecal indicator organisms and biomarkers; it also opens the door for the improvement of focused models on faecal bacteria and stanol export that take into account both hydraulic and splash effects of rain induced erosion.

  11. Developing a savanna burning emissions abatement methodology for tussock grasslands in high rainfall regions of northern Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Russell-Smith


    Full Text Available Fire-prone tropical savanna and grassland systems are a significant source of atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases.  In recent years, substantial research has been directed towards developing accounting methodologies for savanna burning emissions to be applied in Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, as well as for commercial carbon trading purposes.  That work has focused on woody savanna systems.  Here, we extend the methodological approach to include tussock grasslands and associated Melaleuca-dominated open woodlands (<10% foliage cover in higher rainfall (>1,000 mm/annum regions of northern Australia.  Field assessments under dry season conditions focused on deriving fuel accumulation, fire patchiness and combustion relationships for key fuel types: fine fuels − grass and litter; coarse woody fuels − twigs <6 mm diameter; heavy woody fuels − >6 mm diameter; and shrubs.  In contrast with previous savanna burning assessments, fire treatments undertaken under early dry season burning conditions resulted in negligible patchiness and very substantial consumption of fine fuels.  In effect, burning in the early dry season provides no benefits in greenhouse gas emissions and emissions reductions in tussock grasslands can be achieved only through reducing the extent of burning.  The practical implications of reduced burning in higher rainfall northern Australian grassland systems are discussed, indicating that there are significant constraints, including infrastructural, cultural and woody thickening issues.  Similar opportunities and constraints are observed in other international contexts, but especially project implementation challenges associated with legislative, political and governance issues.

  12. Deformation of high performance concrete plate under humid tropical weather (United States)

    Niken, C.; Elly, T.; Supartono, FX; Laksmi, I.


    This paper presents the relationship between surrounding relative humidity and temperature on deformation behavior of one sample concrete plate with compressive strength of 60MPa. This research was done in Indonesia that is in humid tropical weather. A specimens measuring 3000 mm × 1600 mm × 150 mm were used. The behavior was obtained by using four embedded vibrating wire strain gauges (VWESG). As a result there is a very strong relationship between humidity and deformation at the age range of 7 until 21 days. The largest deformation occurs in the corner and the fluctuation of deformation in side position is larger than in the corner and in the middle. The peaks of surrounding relative humidity were fully followed by the deepest valley of deformation on time in the corner, while in another position the range delay time was 8 - 11 hours. There is a strong relationship between surrounding temperature and deformation at the range of 7 until 14 days. The influenced of surrounding relative humidity to concrete behavior is faster and longer than surrounding temperature. The influence of surrounding temperature in humid tropical weather was shorter than in non-humid tropical weather.

  13. Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a Fully Distributed Model and High-resolution rainfall data (United States)

    Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire


    Nowadays, there is a growing interest on small-scale rainfall information, provided by weather radars, to be used in urban water management and decision-making. Therefore, an increasing interest is in parallel devoted to the development of fully distributed and grid-based models following the increase of computation capabilities, the availability of high-resolution GIS information needed for such models implementation. However, the choice of an appropriate implementation scale to integrate the catchment heterogeneity and the whole measured rainfall variability provided by High-resolution radar technologies still issues. This work proposes a two steps investigation of scale effects in urban hydrology and its effects on modeling works. In the first step fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependency observed within distributed data used to describe the catchment heterogeneity, both the structure of the sewer network and the distribution of impervious areas are analyzed. Then an intensive multi-scale modeling work is carried out to understand scaling effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations were conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model was implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 m to 5 m and modeling investigations were performed using both rain gauge rainfall information as well as high resolution X band radar data in order to assess the sensitivity of the model to small scale rainfall variability. Results coming out from this work demonstrate scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modeling. In fact, fractal concept highlights the scale dependency observed within distributed data used to implement hydrological models. Patterns of geophysical data change when we change the observation pixel size. The multi-scale modeling investigation performed with Multi-Hydro model at 17 spatial resolutions confirms scaling effect on hydrological model

  14. Monitoring coastal wetlands in a highly dynamic tropical environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saynor, M.J.; Finlayson, C.M.; Spiers, A.; Eliot, I.


    The Alligator Rivers Region in the wet-dry tropics of northern Australia has been selected by government and collaborating agencies as a key study area for the monitoring of natural and human-induced coastal change. The Region contains the floodplain wetlands of Kakadu National Park which have been recognised internationally for their natural and cultural heritage value. A coastal monitoring program for assessing and monitoring environmental change in the Alligator Rivers Region has been established at the Environmental Research Institute of the Supervising Scientist. This program has developed a regional capacity to measure and assess change on the wetlands, floodplains and coastline within the region. Field assessment and monitoring procedures have been developed for the program. The assessment procedures require use of georeferencing and data handling techniques to facilitate comparison and relational overlay of a wide variety of information. Monitoring includes regular survey of biophysical and cultural processes on the floodplains; such as the extension of tidal creeks and mangroves, shoreline movement, dieback in Melaleuca wetlands, and weed invasion of freshwater wetlands. A differential Global Positioning System is used to accurately georeference spatial data and a Geographic Information System is then used to store and assess information. The assessment and monitoring procedures can be applied to the wet-dry tropics in general. These studies are all particularly pertinent with the possibility of greenhouse gases causing global warming and potential sea-level rise, a major possible threat to the valued wetlands of Kakadu National Park, and across the wet-dry tropics in general

  15. Disdrometer-based C-Band Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) in a highly complex terrain region in tropical Colombia. (United States)

    Sepúlveda, J.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.


    An adequate quantification of precipitation over land is critical for many societal applications including agriculture, hydroelectricity generation, water supply, and risk management associated with extreme events. The use of rain gauges, a traditional method for precipitation estimation, and an excellent one, to estimate the volume of liquid water during a particular precipitation event, does not allow to fully capture the highly spatial variability of the phenomena which is a requirement for almost all practical applications. On the other hand, the weather radar, an active remote sensing sensor, provides a proxy for rainfall with fine spatial resolution and adequate temporary sampling, however, it does not measure surface precipitation. In order to fully exploit the capabilities of the weather radar, it is necessary to develop quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) techniques combining radar information with in-situ measurements. Different QPE methodologies are explored and adapted to local observations in a highly complex terrain region in tropical Colombia using a C-Band radar and a relatively dense network of rain gauges and disdrometers. One important result is that the expressions reported in the literature for extratropical locations are not representative of the conditions found in the tropical region studied. In addition to reproducing the state-of-the-art techniques, a new multi-stage methodology based on radar-derived variables and disdrometer data is proposed in order to achieve the best QPE possible. The main motivation for this new methodology is based on the fact that most traditional QPE methods do not directly take into account the different uncertainty sources involved in the process. The main advantage of the multi-stage model compared to traditional models is that it allows assessing and quantifying the uncertainty in the surface rain rate estimation. The sub-hourly rainfall estimations using the multi-stage methodology are realistic


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celso A. G. Santos


    Full Text Available The rainfall characteristics within Klang River basin is analyzed by the continuous wavelet transform using monthly rainfall data (1997–2009 from a raingauge and also using daily rainfall data (1998–2013 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM. The wavelet power spectrum showed that some frequency components were presented within the rainfall time series, but the observed time series is short to provide accurate information, thus the daily TRMM rainfall data were used. In such analysis, two main frequency components, i.e., 6 and 12 months, showed to be present during the entire period of 16 years. Such semiannual and annual frequencies were confirmed by the global wavelet power spectra. Finally, the modulation in the 8–16-month and 256– 512-day bands were examined by an average of all scales between 8 and 16 months, and 256 and 512 days, respectively, giving a measure of the average monthly/daily variance versus time, where the periods with low or high variance could be identified.

  17. Rainfall Modification by Urban Areas: New Perspectives from TRMM (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Pierce, Harold F.; Negri, Andrew


    Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) were employed to identify warm season rainfall (1998-2000) patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48% - 116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and with more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work is extending the investigation to Phoenix, Arizona, an arid U.S. city, and several international cities like Mexico City, Johannesburg, and Brasilia. The study establishes the possibility of utilizing satellite-based rainfall estimates for examining rainfall modification by urban areas on global scales and over longer time periods. Such research has implications for weather forecasting, urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment and climate.

  18. Freeze-thaw processes and intense winter rainfall: The one-two punch for high streambank legacy sediment and nutrient loads from Mid-Atlantic watersheds (United States)

    Inamdar, S. P.; Johnson, E. R.; Rowland, R. D.; Walter, R. C.; Merritts, D.


    Historic and contemporary anthropogenic soil erosion combined with early-American milldams resulted in large deposits of legacy sediments in the valley bottoms of Piedmont watersheds of the eastern US. Breaching of milldams subsequently yielded highly incised streams with exposed vertical streambanks that are vulnerable to erosion. Streambank erosion is attributed to fluvial scouring, freeze-thaw processes and mass wasting. While streambanks represent a large reservoir of fine sediments and nutrients, there is considerable uncertainty about the contribution of these sources to watershed nonpoint source pollution. Using high-frequency hydrologic, sediment, and turbidity data we show that freeze-thaw events followed by intense winter rainstorms can export unusually high concentrations of suspended sediment and particulate nutrients from watersheds. Data from a 12 ha forested, Piedmont, stream following an intense rain event (54 mm) on February 2016 yielded suspended sediment and particulate nutrient (organic carbon and nitrogen) concentrations and exports that exceeded those from tropical storms Irene, Lee, and Sandy that had much greater rainfall and discharge amounts, but which occurred later in the year. A similar response was also observed with regards to turbidity data for USGS stream monitoring locations at Brandywine Creek (813 km2) and White Clay Creek (153 km2). We hypothesize that much of the sediment export associated with winter storms is likely due to erosion of streambank sediments and was driven by the coupled occurrence of freeze-thaw conditions and intense rainfall events. We propose that freeze-thaw erosion represents an important and underappreciated mechanism in streams that "recharges" the sediment supply, which then is available for flushing by moderate to large storms. Future climate projections indicate increased intensification of storm events and increased variability of winter temperatures. Freeze-thaw cycles coupled with winter rain events

  19. Tropical Glaciers (United States)

    Fountain, Andrew

    The term "tropical glacier" calls to mind balmy nights and palm trees on one hand and cold, blue ice on the other. Certainly author Gabriel Garcia Marqez exploited this contrast in One Hundred Years of Solitude. We know that tropical fish live in warm, Sun-kissed waters and tropical plants provide lush, dense foliage populated by colorful tropical birds. So how do tropical glaciers fit into this scene? Like glaciers everywhere, tropical glaciers form where mass accumulation—usually winter snow—exceeds mass loss, which is generally summer melt. Thus, tropical glaciers exist at high elevations where precipitation can occur as snowfall exceeds melt and sublimation losses, such as the Rwenzori Mountains in east Africa and the Maoke Range of Irian Jaya.

  20. High burden of impetigo and scabies in a tropical country.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew C Steer


    Full Text Available Impetigo and scabies are endemic diseases in many tropical countries; however the epidemiology of these diseases is poorly understood in many areas, particularly in the Pacific.We conducted three epidemiological studies in 2006 and 2007 to determine the burden of disease due to impetigo and scabies in children in Fiji using simple and easily reproducible methodology. Two studies were performed in primary school children (one study was a cross-sectional study and the other a prospective cohort study over ten months and one study was performed in infants (cross-sectional. The prevalence of active impetigo was 25.6% (95% CI 24.1-27.1 in primary school children and 12.2% (95% CI 9.3-15.6 in infants. The prevalence of scabies was 18.5% (95% CI 17.2-19.8 in primary school children and 14.0% (95% CI 10.8-17.2 in infants. The incidence density of active impetigo, group A streptococcal (GAS impetigo, Staphylococcus aureus impetigo and scabies was 122, 80, 64 and 51 cases per 100 child-years respectively. Impetigo was strongly associated with scabies infestation (odds ratio, OR, 2.4, 95% CI 1.6-3.7 and was more common in Indigenous Fijian children when compared with children of other ethnicities (OR 3.6, 95% CI 2.7-4.7. The majority of cases of active impetigo in the children in our study were caused by GAS. S. aureus was also a common cause (57.4% in school aged children and 69% in infants.These data suggest that the impetigo and scabies disease burden in children in Fiji has been underestimated, and possibly other tropical developing countries in the Pacific. These diseases are more than benign nuisance diseases and consideration needs to be given to expanded public health initiatives to improve their control.

  1. Spatial Analysis of High-Resolution Radar Rainfall and Citizen-Reported Flash Flood Data in Ultra-Urban New York City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brianne Smith


    Full Text Available New York City (NYC is an ultra-urban region, with over 50% impervious cover and buried stream channels. Traditional flood studies rely on the presence of stream gages to detect flood stage and discharge, but these methods cannot be used in ultra-urban areas. Here we create a high-resolution radar rainfall dataset for NYC and utilize citizen and expert reports of flooding throughout the city to study flash flooding in NYC. Results indicate that interactions between the urban area and land–sea boundary have an important impact on the spatial variability of both heavy rainfall and flooding, sometimes in contrast to results obtained for other cities. Top days of daily and hourly rainfall exhibit a rainfall maximum over the city center and an extended region of higher rainfall downwind of the city. The mechanism for flooding appears to vary across the city, with high groundwater tables influencing more coastal areas and high rain rates or large rain volumes influencing more inland areas. There is also a strong relationship between sewer type and flood frequency, with fewer floods observed in combined sewer areas. Flooding is driven by maximum one-hour to one-day rainfall, which is often substantially less rain than observed for the city-wide daily maximum.

  2. A pervasive role for biomass burning in tropical high ozone/low water structures (United States)

    Anderson, Daniel C.; Nicely, Julie M.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Canty, Timothy P.; Dickerson, Russell R.; Hanisco, Thomas F.; Wolfe, Glenn M.; Apel, Eric C.; Atlas, Elliot; Bannan, Thomas; Bauguitte, Stephane; Blake, Nicola J.; Bresch, James F.; Campos, Teresa L.; Carpenter, Lucy J.; Cohen, Mark D.; Evans, Mathew; Fernandez, Rafael P.; Kahn, Brian H.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Hall, Samuel R.; Harris, Neil R. P.; Hornbrook, Rebecca S.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Le Breton, Michael; Lee, James D.; Percival, Carl; Pfister, Leonhard; Pierce, R. Bradley; Riemer, Daniel D.; Saiz-Lopez, Alfonso; Stunder, Barbara J. B.; Thompson, Anne M.; Ullmann, Kirk; Vaughan, Adam; Weinheimer, Andrew J.


    Air parcels with mixing ratios of high O3 and low H2O (HOLW) are common features in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) mid-troposphere (300-700 hPa). Here, using data collected during aircraft sampling of the TWP in winter 2014, we find strong, positive correlations of O3 with multiple biomass burning tracers in these HOLW structures. Ozone levels in these structures are about a factor of three larger than background. Models, satellite data and aircraft observations are used to show fires in tropical Africa and Southeast Asia are the dominant source of high O3 and that low H2O results from large-scale descent within the tropical troposphere. Previous explanations that attribute HOLW structures to transport from the stratosphere or mid-latitude troposphere are inconsistent with our observations. This study suggest a larger role for biomass burning in the radiative forcing of climate in the remote TWP than is commonly appreciated.

  3. A Two-year Record of Daily Rainfall Isotopes from Fiji: Implications for Reconstructing Precipitation from Speleothem δ18O (United States)

    Brett, M.; Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.


    Oxygen isotopes in speleothem provide opportunities to construct precisely dated records of palaeoclimate variability, underpinned by an understanding of both the regional climate and local controls on isotopes in rainfall and groundwater. For tropical islands, a potential means to reconstruct past rainfall variability is to exploit the generally high correlation between rainfall amount and δ18O: the 'amount effect'. The GNIP program provides δ18O data at monthly resolution for several tropical Pacific islands but there are few data for precipitation isotopes at daily resolution, for investigating the amount effect over different timescales in a tropical maritime setting. Timescales are important since meteoric water feeding a speleothem has undergone storage and mixing in the aquifer system and understanding how the isotope amount effect is preserved in aquifer recharge has fundamental implications on the interpretation of speleothem δ18O in terms of palaeo-precipitation. The islands of Fiji host speleothem caves. Seasonal precipitation is related to the movement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone, and interannual variations in rainfall are coupled to ENSO behaviour. Individual rainfall events are stratiform or convective, with proximal moisture sources. We have daily resolution isotope data for rainfall collected at the University of the South Pacific in Suva, covering every rain event in 2012 and 2013. δ18O varies between -18‰ and +3‰ with the annual weighted averages at -7.6‰ and -6.8‰ respectively, while total recorded rainfall amount is similar in both years. We shall present analysis of our data compared with GNIP, meteorological data and back trajectory analyses to demonstrate the nature of the relationship between rainfall amount and isotopic signatures over this short timescale. Comparison with GNIP data for 2012-13 will shed light on the origin of the amount effect at monthly and seasonal timescales in convective, maritime, tropical


    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GONG Zhen-song; HE Min


    Relationships between large-scale zonal wind anomalies and annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclones and possible mechanisms are investigated with the methods of correlation and composition.It is indicated that when △ U200-△U850 >0 in the eastern tropical Pacific and △ U200- △U850 <0 in western tropical Pacific, the Walker cell is stronger in the Pacific tropical region and the annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclone are above normal. In the years with zonal wind anomalies, the circulation of high and low troposphere and the vertical motions in the troposphere have significant characteristics. In the time scale of short-range climate prediction, zonal wind anomalies in high and low troposphere are useful as a preliminary signal of the annual frequency prediction of NW Pacific tropical cyclones.

  5. An Assessment of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Products Relative to Ground Observations over East Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret Wambui Kimani


    Full Text Available Accurate and consistent rainfall observations are vital for climatological studies in support of better agricultural and water management decision-making and planning. In East Africa, accurate rainfall estimation with an adequate spatial distribution is limited due to sparse rain gauge networks. Satellite rainfall products can potentially play a role in increasing the spatial coverage of rainfall estimates; however, their performance needs to be understood across space–time scales and factors relating to their errors. This study assesses the performance of seven satellite products: Tropical Applications of Meteorology using Satellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT, African Rainfall Climatology And Time series (TARCAT, Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-3B43, Climate Prediction Centre (CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR, CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP, and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, using locally developed gridded (0.05° rainfall data for 15 years (1998–2012 over East Africa. The products’ assessments were done at monthly and yearly timescales and were remapped to the gridded rain gauge data spatial scale during the March to May (MAM and October to December (OND rainy seasons. A grid-based statistical comparison between the two datasets was used, but only pixel values located at the rainfall stations were considered for validation. Additionally, the impact of topography on the performance of the products was assessed by analyzing the pixels in areas of highest negative bias. All the products could substantially replicate rainfall patterns, but their differences are mainly based on retrieving high rainfall amounts, especially of localized orographic types. The products exhibited systematic errors, which

  6. Modeling fire behavior on tropical islands with high-resolution weather data (United States)

    John W. Benoit; Francis M. Fujioka; David R. Weise


    In this study, we consider fire behavior simulation in tropical island scenarios such as Hawaii and Puerto Rico. The development of a system to provide real-time fire behavior prediction in Hawaii is discussed. This involves obtaining fuels and topography information at a fine scale, as well as supplying daily high-resolution weather forecast data for the area of...

  7. Nonrandom community assembly and high temporal turnover promote regional coexistence in tropics but not temperate zone. (United States)

    Freestone, Amy L; Inouye, Brian D


    A persistent challenge for ecologists is understanding the ecological mechanisms that maintain global patterns of biodiversity, particularly the latitudinal diversity gradient of peak species richness in the tropics. Spatial and temporal variation in community composition contribute to these patterns of biodiversity, but how this variation and its underlying processes change across latitude remains unresolved. Using a model system of sessile marine invertebrates across 25 degrees of latitude, from the temperate zone to the tropics, we tested the prediction that spatial and temporal patterns of taxonomic richness and composition, and the community assembly processes underlying these patterns, will differ across latitude. Specifically, we predicted that high beta diversity (spatial variation in composition) and high temporal turnover contribute to the high species richness of the tropics. Using a standardized experimental approach that controls for several confounding factors that hinder interpretation of prior studies, we present results that support our predictions. In the temperate zone, communities were more similar across spatial scales from centimeters to tens of kilometers and temporal scales up to one year than at lower latitudes. Since the patterns at northern latitudes were congruent with a null model, stochastic assembly processes are implicated. In contrast, the communities in the tropics were a dynamic spatial and temporal mosaic, with low similarity even across small spatial scales and high temporal turnover at both local and regional scales. Unlike the temperate zone, deterministic community assembly processes such as predation likely contributed to the high beta diversity in the tropics. Our results suggest that community assembly processes and temporal dynamics vary across latitude and help structure and maintain latitudinal patterns of diversity.

  8. Air-sea interaction in the tropical Pacific Ocean (United States)

    Allison, L. J.; Steranka, J.; Holub, R. J.; Hansen, J.; Godshall, F. A.; Prabhakara, C.


    Charts of 3-month sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean were produced for the period 1949 to 1970. The anomalies along the United States and South American west coasts and in the eastern tropical Pacific appeared to be oscillating in phase during this period. Similarly, the satellite-derived cloudiness for each of four quadrants of the Pacific Ocean (130 deg E to 100 deg W, 30 deg N to 25 deg S) appeared to be oscillating in phase. In addition, a global tropical cloudiness oscillation from 30 deg N to 30 deg S was noted from 1965 to 1970, by using monthly satellite television nephanalyses. The SST anomalies were found to have a good degree of correlation both positive and negative with the following monthly geophysical parameters: (1) satellite-derived cloudiness, (2) strength of the North and South Pacific semipermanent anticyclones, (3) tropical Pacific island rainfall, and (4) Darwin surface pressure. Several strong direct local and crossequatorial relationships were noted. In particular, the high degree of correlation between the tropical island rainfall and the SST anomalies (r = +0.93) permitted the derivation of SST's for the tropical Pacific back to 1905. The close occurrence of cold tropical SST and North Pacific 700-mb positive height anomalies with central United States drought conditions was noted.

  9. Some Implications of High Biodiversity for Management of Tropical Marine Ecosystems—An Australian Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Kenchington


    Full Text Available While high biodiversity has been widely reported from the tropics, we suggest that in reality there is a considerable underestimate of the total biodiversity. We have concentrated on the tropical regions of Australia and the Coral Triangle. The best known groups are the corals, fish, and commercially important invertebrates. In considering whether this is true, we have concentrated on the diversity of benthic communities and water column communities which are poorly known. Yet at the bottom of the food chain these communities are highly dynamic and susceptible to the anthropogenic changes that are occurring with the rapid development in this highly populated region. Tropical biodiversity is under increasing stress from a synergistic combination of changes in climate, oceanographic regimes, increasing coastal development, overfishing, and poor water quality, resulting in bleaching of corals and loss of habitat and of associated fauna. These changes on reefs have received substantial research attention; in comparison, there is limited data on inter-reefal areas and water column communities and limited understanding of the ecological interconnectivity of all these habitats. While in this region there is growing marine protected area coverage, the major focus is on coral reefs with other habitats based on surrogacy with little if any ground-truthing. Within this region, there is limited capacity or inclination to rectify this lack of knowledge of the structure and ecology of the broader non-commercial benthic and pelagic communities. We suggest this lack of knowledge and limited expertise may be widespread throughout the tropics and compromises our ability to understand and predict the changes that are occurring with increasing anthropogenic impacts on these tropical ecosystems.

  10. Using high resolution aridity and drainage position data to better predict rainfall-runoff relationships in complex upland topography (United States)

    Metzen, D.; Sheridan, G. J.; Benyon, R. G.; Lane, P. N. J.


    In topographically complex terrain, the interaction of aspect-dependent solar exposure and drainage-position-dependent flow accumulation results in energy and water partitioning that is highly spatially variable. Catchment scale rainfall-runoff relationships are dependent on these smaller scale spatial patterns. However, there remains considerable uncertainty as to how to represent this smaller scale variability within lumped parameter, catchment scale rainfall-runoff models. In this study we aim to measure and represent the key interactions between aridity and drainage position in complex terrain to inform the development of simple catchment-scale hydrologic model parameters. Six measurement plots were setup on opposing slopes in an east-west facing eucalypt forest headwater catchment. The field sites are spanning three drainage positions with two contrasting aridity indices each, while minimizing variations in other factors, e.g. geology and weather patterns. Sapflow, soil water content (SWC) and throughfall were continuously monitored on two convergent hillslopes with similar size (1.3 and 1.6ha) but contrasting aspects (north and south). Soil depth varied from 0.6m at the topslope to >2m at the bottomslope positions. Maximum tree heights ranged from 16.2m to 36.9m on the equator-facing slope and from 30.1m to 45.5m on the pole-facing slope, with height decreasing upslope on both aspects. Two evapotranspiration (ET) patterns emerged in relation to aridity and drainage position. On the equator-facing slope (AI~ 2.1), seasonal understorey and overstorey ET patterns were in sync, whereas on the pole-facing slope (AI~1.5) understorey ET showed larger seasonal fluctuations than overstorey ET. Seasonal ET patterns and competition between soil evaporation and root water uptake lead to distinct differences in profile SWC across the sites, likely caused by depletion from different depths. Topsoil water content on equator-facing slopes was generally lower and responded


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sisuru Sendanayake


    Full Text Available There are many correlations developed to predict incident solar radiation at a givenlocation developed based on geographical and meteorological parameters. However, allcorrelations depend on accurate measurement and availability of weather data such assunshine duration, cloud cover, relative humidity, maximum and minimumtemperatures etc, which essentially is a costly exercise in terms of equipment andlabour. Sri Lanka being a tropical island of latitudinal change of only 30 along thelength of the country, the meteorological factors govern the amount of incidentradiation. Considering the cloud formation and wind patterns over Sri Lanka as well asthe seasonal rainfall patterns, it can be observed that the mean number of rainy dayscan be used to predict the monthly average daily global radiation which can be used forcalculations in solar related activities conveniently.

  12. Daily TRMM and Others Rainfall Estimate (3B42 V7 derived) V7 (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint U.S.-Japan satellite mission to monitor tropical and subtropical precipitation and to estimate its...

  13. TRMM and Other Sources Rainfall Product (TRMM Product 3B43) V7 (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint U.S.-Japan satellite mission to monitor tropical and subtropical precipitation and to estimate its...

  14. Perspectives for an integrated understanding of tropical and temperate high-mountain lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordi Catalan


    Full Text Available High mountain lakes are extreme freshwater ecosystems and excellent sentinels of current global change. They are likely among the most comparable ecosystems across the world. The largest contrast occurs between lakes in temperate and tropical areas. The main difference arises from the seasonal patterns of heat exchange and the external loadings (carbon, phosphorus, metals. The consequence is a water column structure based on temperature, in temperate lakes, and oxygen, in tropical lakes. This essential difference implies that, in tropical lakes, one can expect a more sustained productivity throughout the year; a higher nutrient internal loading based on the mineralization of external organic matter; higher nitrification-denitrification potential related to the oxyclines; and a higher metal mobilization due to the permanently reduced bottom layer. Quantifying and linking these and other biogeochemical pathways to particular groups of organisms is in the current agenda of high-mountain limnology. The intrinsic difficulties of the taxonomic study of many of the organisms inhabiting these systems can be now overcome with the use of molecular techniques. These techniques will not only provide a much less ambiguous taxonomic knowledge of the microscopic world, but also will unveil new biogeochemical pathways that are difficult to measure chemically and will solve biogeographical puzzles of the distribution of some macroscopic organism, tracing the relationship with other areas. Daily variability and vertical gradients in the tropics are the main factors of phytoplankton species turnover in tropical lakes; whereas seasonality is the main driver in temperate communities. The study of phytoplankton in high-mountain lakes only makes sense in an integrated view of the microscopic ecosystem. A large part of the plankton biomass is in heterotrophic, and mixotrophic organisms and prokaryotes compete for dissolved resources with eukaryotic autotrophs. In fact

  15. Weekend Effect" in Summertime U.S. Rainfall: Evidence for Midweek Intensification of Storms by Pollution (United States)

    Bell, Thomas L.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Hahnenberger, Maura


    Persistent and strong dependence of rain rate on the day of the week has been found in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates of summer afternoon rainfall over the southeast U.S. and the nearby Atlantic from 1998 to 2005. Midweek (Tue-Thu) rain rates and rain area appear to increase over land, and this increase is accompanied by a corresponding diminution of rainfall over nearby waters. Reanalysis data from atmospheric models, suggest that there is a corresponding weekly variation in atmospheric winds consistent with the changes in rainfall. These variations are almost certainly caused by weekly variations in human activity. The most likely cause of the observed changes in rainfall is the well documented weekly variation in atmospheric pollution. Particulate pollution is highest in the middle of the week. Considerable observational and modeling evidence has accumulated concerning the effects of aerosols on precipitation. Most of this evidence relates to the suppression of precipitation by aerosols, but it has been argued that storms in highly unstable moist environments can be invigorated by aerosols, and some modeling studies seem to confirm this. The strong weekly cycle in rainfall observed over the southeast U.S. along with what appears to be dynamical suppression of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic, and the lack of an observable cycle over the southwest U.S., are consistent with this theory.

  16. Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST. (United States)

    Erfanian, Amir; Wang, Guiling; Fomenko, Lori


    Tropical and sub-tropical South America are highly susceptible to extreme droughts. Recent events include two droughts (2005 and 2010) exceeding the 100-year return value in the Amazon and recurrent extreme droughts in the Nordeste region, with profound eco-hydrological and socioeconomic impacts. In 2015-2016, both regions were hit by another drought. Here, we show that the severity of the 2015-2016 drought ("2016 drought" hereafter) is unprecedented based on multiple precipitation products (since 1900), satellite-derived data on terrestrial water storage (since 2002) and two vegetation indices (since 2004). The ecohydrological consequences from the 2016 drought are more severe and extensive than the 2005 and 2010 droughts. Empirical relationships between rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic are used to assess the role of tropical oceanic variability in the observed precipitation anomalies. Our results indicate that warmer-than-usual SSTs in the Tropical Pacific (including El Niño events) and Atlantic were the main drivers of extreme droughts in South America, but are unable to explain the severity of the 2016 observed rainfall deficits for a substantial portion of the Amazonia and Nordeste regions. This strongly suggests potential contribution of non-oceanic factors (e.g., land cover change and CO2-induced warming) to the 2016 drought.

  17. Effect of high ambient temperature on behavior of sheep under semi-arid tropical environment. (United States)

    De, Kalyan; Kumar, Davendra; Saxena, Vijay Kumar; Thirumurugan, Palanisamy; Naqvi, Syed Mohammed Khursheed


    High environmental temperature is a major constraint in sheep production under semi-arid tropical environment. Behavior is the earliest indicator of animal's adaptation and responses to the environmental alteration. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess the effects of high ambient temperature on the behavior of sheep under a semi-arid tropical environment. The experiment was conducted for 6 weeks on 16 Malpura cross (Garole × Malpura × Malpura (GMM)) rams. The rams were divided equally into two groups, designated as C and T. The rams of C were kept in comfortable environmental conditions served as control. The rams of T were exposed to a different temperature at different hours of the day in a climatic chamber, to simulate a high environmental temperature of summer in semi-arid tropic. The behavioral observations were taken by direct instantaneous observation at 15-min intervals for each animal individually. The feeding, ruminating, standing, and lying behaviors were recorded twice a week from morning (0800 hours) to afternoon (1700 hours) for 6 weeks. Exposure of rams to high temperature (T) significantly (P behavior of sheep which is directed to circumvent the effect of the stressor.

  18. Effect of high ambient temperature on behavior of sheep under semi-arid tropical environment (United States)

    De, Kalyan; Kumar, Davendra; Saxena, Vijay Kumar; Thirumurugan, Palanisamy; Naqvi, Syed Mohammed Khursheed


    High environmental temperature is a major constraint in sheep production under semi-arid tropical environment. Behavior is the earliest indicator of animal's adaptation and responses to the environmental alteration. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess the effects of high ambient temperature on the behavior of sheep under a semi-arid tropical environment. The experiment was conducted for 6 weeks on 16 Malpura cross (Garole × Malpura × Malpura (GMM)) rams. The rams were divided equally into two groups, designated as C and T. The rams of C were kept in comfortable environmental conditions served as control. The rams of T were exposed to a different temperature at different hours of the day in a climatic chamber, to simulate a high environmental temperature of summer in semi-arid tropic. The behavioral observations were taken by direct instantaneous observation at 15-min intervals for each animal individually. The feeding, ruminating, standing, and lying behaviors were recorded twice a week from morning (0800 hours) to afternoon (1700 hours) for 6 weeks. Exposure of rams to high temperature (T) significantly ( P animals of T spent significantly ( P behavior of sheep which is directed to circumvent the effect of the stressor.

  19. Rainfall erosivity in Europe. (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Klik, Andreas; Rousseva, Svetla; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Michaelides, Silas; Hrabalíková, Michaela; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Beguería, Santiago; Alewell, Christine


    Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based on the best available datasets. Data have been collected from 1541 precipitation stations in all European Union (EU) Member States and Switzerland, with temporal resolutions of 5 to 60 min. The R-factor values calculated from precipitation data of different temporal resolutions were normalised to R-factor values with temporal resolutions of 30 min using linear regression functions. Precipitation time series ranged from a minimum of 5 years to a maximum of 40 years. The average time series per precipitation station is around 17.1 years, the most datasets including the first decade of the 21st century. Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months, average temperature), elevation and latitude/longitude. The mean R-factor for the EU plus Switzerland is 722 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1), with the highest values (>1000 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Mediterranean and alpine regions and the lowest (<500 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Nordic countries. The erosivity density (erosivity normalised to annual precipitation amounts) was also the highest in Mediterranean regions which implies high risk for erosive events and floods

  20. Characterization of the Sahelian-Sudan rainfall based on observations and regional climate models (United States)

    Salih, Abubakr A. M.; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Tjernström, Michael; Zhang, Qiong


    The African Sahel region is known to be highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. We analyze rainfall in the Sahelian Sudan in terms of distribution of rain-days and amounts, and examine whether regional climate models can capture these rainfall features. Three regional models namely, Regional Model (REMO), Rossby Center Atmospheric Model (RCA) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM4), are evaluated against gridded observations (Climate Research Unit, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and ERA-interim reanalysis) and rain-gauge data from six arid and semi-arid weather stations across Sahelian Sudan over the period 1989 to 2008. Most of the observed rain-days are characterized by weak (0.1-1.0 mm/day) to moderate (> 1.0-10.0 mm/day) rainfall, with average frequencies of 18.5% and 48.0% of the total annual rain-days, respectively. Although very strong rainfall events (> 30.0 mm/day) occur rarely, they account for a large fraction of the total annual rainfall (28-42% across the stations). The performance of the models varies both spatially and temporally. RegCM4 most closely reproduces the observed annual rainfall cycle, especially for the more arid locations, but all of the three models fail to capture the strong rainfall events and hence underestimate its contribution to the total annual number of rain-days and rainfall amount. However, excessive moderate rainfall compensates this underestimation in the models in an annual average sense. The present study uncovers some of the models' limitations in skillfully reproducing the observed climate over dry regions, will aid model users in recognizing the uncertainties in the model output and will help climate and hydrological modeling communities in improving models.

  1. Genomics approaches to unlock the high yield potential of cassava, a tropical model plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengkui ZHANG,Ping'an MA,Haiyan WANG,Cheng LU,Xin CHEN,Zhiqiang XIA,Meiling ZOU,Xinchen ZHOU,Wenquan WANG


    Full Text Available Cassava, a tropical food, feed and biofuel crop, has great capacity for biomass accumulation and an extraordinary efficiency in water use and mineral nutrition, which makes it highly suitable as a model plant for tropical crops. However, the understanding of the metabolism and genomics of this important crop is limited. The recent breakthroughs in the genomics of cassava, including whole-genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis, as well as advances in the biology of photosynthesis, starch biosynthesis, adaptation to drought and high temperature, and resistance to virus and bacterial diseases, are reviewed here. Many of the new developments have come from comparative analyses between a wild ancestor and existing cultivars. Finally, the current challenges and future potential of cassava as a model plant are discussed.

  2. Heterogeneity of Dutch rainfall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Witter, J.V.


    Rainfall data for the Netherlands have been used in this study to investigate aspects of heterogeneity of rainfall, in particular local differences in rainfall levels, time trends in rainfall, and local differences in rainfall trend. The possible effect of urbanization and industrialization on the

  3. Model simulations of rainfall over southern Africa and its eastern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Jan 1, 2016 ... Rainfall simulations over southern and tropical Africa in the form of low-resolution Atmospheric Model ..... provision of sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of a host ...... with variability of the Atlantic Ocean. Bull.

  4. Using naive Bayes classifier for classification of convective rainfall ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    the rainfall intensity in the convective clouds is evaluated using weather radar over the northern Algeria. The results indicate an ... tropical and extratropical regions, are dominated .... MSG is a new series of European geostationary satellites ...

  5. Susceptibility of coarse-textured soils to soil erosion by water in the tropics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salako, F.K.


    The application of soil physics for the evaluation of factors of soil erosion in the tropics received considerable attention in the last four decades. In Nigeria, physical characteristics of rainfall such as drop size and drop-size distribution, rainfall intensity at short intervals and kinetic energy of rainfall were evaluated using different methods. Thus, compound erosivity indices were evaluated which showed a similar trend in annual rainfall erosivity with annual rainfall amounts. Attempts have also been made to use geostatistical tools and fractal theory to describe temporal variability in rainfall erosivity. High erosivity aggravates the vulnerability of coarse-textured soils to erosion. These soils, high in sand content were poorly aggregated and structurally weak. Thus, they were easily detached and transported by runoff. Long-term data are needed to describe factors of soil erosion in the tropics but quite often, equipment are not available or poorly maintained where available such that useful data are not collected. A greater cooperation of pure physicists, soil physicists and engineers in the developing nations is needed to improve or design equipment and methods for the characterization of factors of soil erosion in the tropics. (author)

  6. Functional over-redundancy and high functional vulnerability in global fish faunas on tropical reefs. (United States)

    Mouillot, David; Villéger, Sébastien; Parravicini, Valeriano; Kulbicki, Michel; Arias-González, Jesus Ernesto; Bender, Mariana; Chabanet, Pascale; Floeter, Sergio R; Friedlander, Alan; Vigliola, Laurent; Bellwood, David R


    When tropical systems lose species, they are often assumed to be buffered against declines in functional diversity by the ability of the species-rich biota to display high functional redundancy: i.e., a high number of species performing similar functions. We tested this hypothesis using a ninefold richness gradient in global fish faunas on tropical reefs encompassing 6,316 species distributed among 646 functional entities (FEs): i.e., unique combinations of functional traits. We found that the highest functional redundancy is located in the Central Indo-Pacific with a mean of 7.9 species per FE. However, this overall level of redundancy is disproportionately packed into few FEs, a pattern termed functional over-redundancy (FOR). For instance, the most speciose FE in the Central Indo-Pacific contains 222 species (out of 3,689) whereas 38% of FEs (180 out of 468) have no functional insurance with only one species. Surprisingly, the level of FOR is consistent across the six fish faunas, meaning that, whatever the richness, over a third of the species may still be in overrepresented FEs whereas more than one third of the FEs are left without insurance, these levels all being significantly higher than expected by chance. Thus, our study shows that, even in high-diversity systems, such as tropical reefs, functional diversity remains highly vulnerable to species loss. Although further investigations are needed to specifically address the influence of redundant vs. vulnerable FEs on ecosystem functioning, our results suggest that the promised benefits from tropical biodiversity may not be as strong as previously thought.

  7. Long term high resolution rainfall runoff observations for improved water balance uncertainty and database QA-QC in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed. (United States)

    Bitew, M. M.; Goodrich, D. C.; Demaria, E.; Heilman, P.; Kautz, M. A.


    Walnut Gulch is a semi-arid environment experimental watershed and Long Term Agro-ecosystem Research (LTAR) site managed by USDA-ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center for which high-resolution long-term hydro-climatic data are available across its 150 km2 drainage area. In this study, we present the analysis of 50 years of continuous hourly rainfall data to evaluate runoff control and generation processes for improving the QA-QC plans of Walnut Gulch to create high-quality data set that is critical for reducing water balance uncertainties. Multiple linear regression models were developed to relate rainfall properties, runoff characteristics and watershed properties. The rainfall properties were summarized to event based total depth, maximum intensity, duration, the location of the storm center with respect to the outlet, and storm size normalized to watershed area. We evaluated the interaction between the runoff and rainfall and runoff as antecedent moisture condition (AMC), antecedent runoff condition (ARC) and, runoff depth and duration for each rainfall events. We summarized each of the watershed properties such as contributing area, slope, shape, channel length, stream density, channel flow area, and percent of the area of retention stock ponds for each of the nested catchments in Walnut Gulch. The evaluation of the model using basic and categorical statistics showed good predictive skill throughout the watersheds. The model produced correlation coefficients ranging from 0.4-0.94, Nash efficiency coefficients up to 0.77, and Kling-Gupta coefficients ranging from 0.4 to 0.98. The model predicted 92% of all runoff generations and 98% of no-runoff across all sub-watersheds in Walnut Gulch. The regression model also indicated good potential to complement the QA-QC procedures in place for Walnut Gulch dataset publications developed over the years since the 1960s through identification of inconsistencies in rainfall and runoff relations.

  8. Phytoplankton dynamics in a highly eutrophic estuary in tropical Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilene Felipe Santiago


    Full Text Available The port of Recife in northeastern Brazil is an important ecological and social area but little is known about its environmental quality. Observations, sampling and measurements of phytoplankton were performed during spring and neap tides in the dry (January-February, 2005 and rainy (June, 2005 seasons to assess the environmental quality of the port of Recife. The area had chlorophyll-a concentrations ranging from 3.30 to 54.40 mg m-3, the highest values occurring at low tide during the dry season. A total of 129 species were identified: 53 of them in the dry season and 97 in the rainy season. Diatoms were the most diverse group and comprised 75.47% of the phytoplankton collected in the dry season and 60.82% of those collected in the rainy season. The dry season was characterized by Coscinodiscus sp. and Helicotheca tamesis; the rainy season by Oscillatoria sp. and Coscinodiscus centralis. Species diversity indices varied from 1.06 to 3.74 bits cel-1. Low indices were related to the dominance of Helicotheca tamesis, Coscinodiscus centralis, Coscinodiscus sp. and Aulacoseira granulata. Seasonal forcing, rather than the estuarine flux, determined the phytoplankton community structure. The area is exposed to seasonally varying negative impacts due to metropolitan degradation and the high level of eutrophication.Para avaliar a qualidade ambiental Porto do Recife (Nordeste do Brasil, uma área ecológica e socialmente importante mas pouco investigada, observações, medições e amostragem do fitoplâncton foram realizadas durante as marés de sizígia e quadratura no período de estiagem (janeiro-fevereiro / 2005 e chuvoso (junho/2005. A área apresentou concentração de clorofila a variando de 3,30 a 54,40 mg m-3, com maiores valores registrados durante a maré baixa no período de estiagem. Um total de 129 espécies foi identificada com 53 espécies durante o período de estiagem e 97 espécies no chuvoso. As diatomáceas formaram o grupo mais

  9. Tropical forest soil microbial communities couple iron and carbon biogeochemistry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubinsky, E.A.; Silver, W.L.; Firestone, M.K.


    We report that iron-reducing bacteria are primary mediators of anaerobic carbon oxidation in upland tropical soils spanning a rainfall gradient (3500 - 5000 mm yr-1) in northeast Puerto Rico. The abundant rainfall and high net primary productivity of these tropical forests provide optimal soil habitat for iron-reducing and iron-oxidizing bacteria. Spatially and temporally dynamic redox conditions make iron-transforming microbial communities central to the belowground carbon cycle in these wet tropical forests. The exceedingly high abundance of iron-reducing bacteria (up to 1.2 x 10{sup 9} cells per gram soil) indicated that they possess extensive metabolic capacity to catalyze the reduction of iron minerals. In soils from the higher rainfall sites, measured rates of ferric iron reduction could account for up to 44 % of organic carbon oxidation. Iron reducers appeared to compete with methanogens when labile carbon availability was limited. We found large numbers of bacteria that oxidize reduced iron at sites with high rates of iron reduction and large numbers of iron-reducers. the coexistence of large populations of ironreducing and iron-oxidizing bacteria is evidence for rapid iron cycling between its reduced and oxidized states, and suggests that mutualistic interactions among these bacteria ultimately fuel organic carbon oxidation and inhibit CH4 production in these upland tropical forests.

  10. Validation and correction of rainfall data from the WegenerNet high density network in southeast Austria (United States)

    O, Sungmin; Foelsche, U.; Kirchengast, G.; Fuchsberger, J.


    Eight years of daily rainfall data from WegenerNet were analyzed by comparison with data from Austrian national weather stations. WegenerNet includes 153 ground level weather stations in an area of about 15 km × 20 km in the Feldbach region in southeast Austria. Rainfall has been measured by tipping bucket gauges at 150 stations of the network since the beginning of 2007. Since rain gauge measurements are considered close to true rainfall, there are increasing needs for WegenerNet data for the validation of rainfall data products such as remote sensing based estimates or model outputs. Serving these needs, this paper aims at providing a clearer interpretation on WegenerNet rainfall data for users in hydro-meteorological communities. Five clusters - a cluster consists of one national weather station and its four closest WegenerNet stations - allowed us close comparison of datasets between the stations. Linear regression analysis and error estimation with statistical indices were conducted to quantitatively evaluate the WegenerNet daily rainfall data. It was found that rainfall data between the stations show good linear relationships with an average correlation coefficient (r) of 0.97 , while WegenerNet sensors tend to underestimate rainfall according to the regression slope (0.87). For the five clusters investigated, the bias and relative bias were - 0.97 mm d-1 and - 11.5 % on average (except data from new sensors). The average of bias and relative bias, however, could be reduced by about 80 % through a simple linear regression-slope correction, with the assumption that the underestimation in WegenerNet data was caused by systematic errors. The results from the study have been employed to improve WegenerNet data for user applications so that a new version of the data (v5) is now available at the WegenerNet data portal (

  11. Global-Scale Associations of Vegetation Phenology with Rainfall and Temperature at a High Spatio-Temporal Resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Clinton


    Full Text Available Phenology response to climatic variables is a vital indicator for understanding changes in biosphere processes as related to possible climate change. We investigated global phenology relationships to precipitation and land surface temperature (LST at high spatial and temporal resolution for calendar years 2008–2011. We used cross-correlation between MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI, MODIS LST and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN gridded rainfall to map phenology relationships at 1-km spatial resolution and weekly temporal resolution. We show these data to be rich in spatiotemporal information, illustrating distinct phenology patterns as a result of complex overlapping gradients of climate, ecosystem and land use/land cover. The data are consistent with broad-scale, coarse-resolution modeled ecosystem limitations to moisture, temperature and irradiance. We suggest that high-resolution phenology data are useful as both an input and complement to land use/land cover classifiers and for understanding climate change vulnerability in natural and anthropogenic landscapes.

  12. Heart rate reveals torpor at high body temperatures in lowland tropical free-tailed bats. (United States)

    O'Mara, M Teague; Rikker, Sebastian; Wikelski, Martin; Ter Maat, Andries; Pollock, Henry S; Dechmann, Dina K N


    Reduction in metabolic rate and body temperature is a common strategy for small endotherms to save energy. The daily reduction in metabolic rate and heterothermy, or torpor, is particularly pronounced in regions with a large variation in daily ambient temperature. This applies most strongly in temperate bat species (order Chiroptera), but it is less clear how tropical bats save energy if ambient temperatures remain high. However, many subtropical and tropical species use some daily heterothermy on cool days. We recorded the heart rate and the body temperature of free-ranging Pallas' mastiff bats ( Molossus molossus ) in Gamboa, Panamá, and showed that these individuals have low field metabolic rates across a wide range of body temperatures that conform to high ambient temperature. Importantly, low metabolic rates in controlled respirometry trials were best predicted by heart rate, and not body temperature . Molossus molossus enter torpor-like states characterized by low metabolic rate and heart rates at body temperatures of 32°C, and thermoconform across a range of temperatures. Flexible metabolic strategies may be far more common in tropical endotherms than currently known.

  13. Progress in tropical isotope dendroclimatology (United States)

    Evans, M. N.; Schrag, D. P.; Poussart, P. F.; Anchukaitis, K. J.


    The terrestrial tropics remain an important gap in the growing high resolution proxy network used to characterize the mean state and variability of the hydrological cycle. Here we review early efforts to develop a new class of proxy paleorainfall/humidity indicators using intraseasonal to interannual-resolution stable isotope data from tropical trees. The approach invokes a recently published model of oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose, rapid methods for cellulose extraction from raw wood, and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees, even those lacking annual rings. Isotopically-derived age models may be confirmed for modern intervals using trees of known age, radiocarbon measurements, direct measurements of tree diameter, and time series replication. Studies are now underway at a number of laboratories on samples from Costa Rica, northwestern coastal Peru, Indonesia, Thailand, New Guinea, Paraguay, Brazil, India, and the South American Altiplano. Improved sample extraction chemistry and online pyrolysis techniques should increase sample throughput, precision, and time series replication. Statistical calibration together with simple forward modeling based on the well-observed modern period can provide for objective interpretation of the data. Ultimately, replicated data series with well-defined uncertainties can be entered into multiproxy efforts to define aspects of tropical hydrological variability associated with ENSO, the meridional overturning circulation, and the monsoon systems.

  14. Explorative analysis of long time series of very high resolution spatial rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomassen, Emma Dybro; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Scheibel, Marc


    . For each method a set of 17 variables are used to describe the properties of each event, e.g. duration, maximum volumes, spatial coverage and heterogeneity, and movement of cells. A total of 5-9 dimensions can be found in the data, which can be interpreted as a rough indication of how many independent...... simple scaling across the set of variables, i.e. the level of each variable varies signicantly, but not the overall structure of the spatial precipitation. The analysis show that there is a good potential for making a spatial weather generator for high spatio-temporal precipitation for precipitation...

  15. Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Rainfall by Combining BME Theory and Satellite Rainfall Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tingting Shi


    Full Text Available The accurate assessment of spatiotemporal rainfall variability is a crucial and challenging task in many hydrological applications, mainly due to the lack of a sufficient number of rain gauges. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of annual and monthly rainfall over Fujian province in China by combining the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME method and satellite rainfall estimates. Specifically, based on annual and monthly rainfall data at 20 meteorological stations from 2000 to 2012, (1 the BME method with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM estimates considered as soft data, (2 ordinary kriging (OK and (3 cokriging (CK were employed to model the spatiotemporal variations of rainfall in Fujian province. Subsequently, the performance of these methods was evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results demonstrated that BME with TRMM as soft data (BME-TRMM performed better than the other two methods, generating rainfall maps that represented the local rainfall disparities in a more realistic manner. Of the three interpolation (mapping methods, the mean absolute error (MAE and root mean square error (RMSE values of the BME-TRMM method were the smallest. In conclusion, the BME-TRMM method improved spatiotemporal rainfall modeling and mapping by integrating hard data and soft information. Lastly, the study identified new opportunities concerning the application of TRMM rainfall estimates.

  16. Hydrological Evaluation of TRMM Rainfall over the Upper Senegal River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ansoumana Bodian


    Full Text Available The availability of climatic data, especially on a daily time step, has become very rare in West Africa over the last few years due to the high costs of climate data monitoring. This scarcity of climatic data is a huge obstacle to conduct hydrological studies over some watersheds. In this context, our study aimed to evaluate the capacity of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM satellite data to simulate the observed runoffs over the Bafing (the main important tributary of the Senegal River before their potential integration in hydrological studies. The conceptual hydrological model GR4J (modèle du Génie Rural (Agricultural Engineering Model à 4 paramètres Journalier (4 parameters Daily has been used, calibrated and validated over the 1961–1997 period with rainfall and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET as inputs. Then, the parameters that best reflect the rainfall-runoff relation, obtained during the cross-calibration-validation phase, were used to simulate runoff over the 1998–2004 period using observed and TRMM rainfalls. The findings of this study show that there is a high consistency between satellite-based estimates and ground-based observations of rainfall. Over the 1998–2004 simulation period, the two rainfall data series show quite satisfactorily results. The output hydrographs from satellite-based estimates and ground-based observations of rainfall coincide quite well with the shape of observed hydrographs with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE of 0.88 and 0.80 for observed rainfalls and TRMM rainfalls, respectively.

  17. Characterisation of Seasonal Rainfall for Cropping Schedules ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    El Nino-South Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon occurs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean and has been noted to account significantly for rainfall variability in many parts of the world, particularly tropical regions. This variability is very important in rainfed crop production and needs to be well understood. Thirty years of ...

  18. The Soil Moisture Dependence of TRMM Microwave Imager Rainfall Estimates (United States)

    Seyyedi, H.; Anagnostou, E. N.


    This study presents an in-depth analysis of the dependence of overland rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) on the soil moisture conditions at the land surface. TMI retrievals are verified against rainfall fields derived from a high resolution rain-gauge network (MESONET) covering Oklahoma. Soil moisture (SOM) patterns are extracted based on recorded data from 2000-2007 with 30 minutes temporal resolution. The area is divided into wet and dry regions based on normalized SOM (Nsom) values. Statistical comparison between two groups is conducted based on recorded ground station measurements and the corresponding passive microwave retrievals from TMI overpasses at the respective MESONET station location and time. The zero order error statistics show that the Probability of Detection (POD) for the wet regions (higher Nsom values) is higher than the dry regions. The Falls Alarm Ratio (FAR) and volumetric FAR is lower for the wet regions. The volumetric missed rain for the wet region is lower than dry region. Analysis of the MESONET-to-TMI ratio values shows that TMI tends to overestimate for surface rainfall intensities less than 12 (mm/h), however the magnitude of the overestimation over the wet regions is lower than the dry regions.

  19. Rainfall changes affect the algae dominance in tank bromeliad ecosystems (United States)

    Pires, Aliny Patricia Flauzino; Leal, Juliana da Silva; Peeters, Edwin T. H. M.


    Climate change and biodiversity loss have been reported as major disturbances in the biosphere which can trigger changes in the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems. Nonetheless, empirical studies demonstrating how both factors interact to affect shifts in aquatic ecosystems are still unexplored. Here, we experimentally test how changes in rainfall distribution and litter diversity affect the occurrence of the algae-dominated condition in tank bromeliad ecosystems. Tank bromeliads are miniature aquatic ecosystems shaped by the rainwater and allochthonous detritus accumulated in the bases of their leaves. Here, we demonstrated that changes in the rainfall distribution were able to reduce the chlorophyll-a concentration in the water of bromeliad tanks affecting significantly the occurrence of algae-dominated conditions. On the other hand, litter diversity did not affect the algae dominance irrespective to the rainfall scenario. We suggest that rainfall changes may compromise important self-reinforcing mechanisms responsible for maintaining high levels of algae on tank bromeliads ecosystems. We summarized these results into a theoretical model which suggests that tank bromeliads may show two different regimes, determined by the bromeliad ability in taking up nutrients from the water and by the total amount of light entering the tank. We concluded that predicted climate changes might promote regime shifts in tropical aquatic ecosystems by shaping their structure and the relative importance of other regulating factors. PMID:28422988

  20. Changes in the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high on Asian summer monsoon rainfall in the late 1990s (United States)

    Huang, Yanyan; Wang, Bin; Li, Xiaofan; Wang, Huijun


    The Year-to-year variability of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is primarily controlled by atmosphere-ocean interaction (AOI) between the WPSH and the Indo-Pacific warm pool dipole SST anomalies (AOI mode) and the anomalous SST forcing from the equatorial central Pacific (the CP forcing mode). In this study, we show that the impacts of the WPSH variability on Asian summer monsoon rainfall have changed after the late 1990s. Before the late 1990s (the PRE epoch), the WPSH primarily affects East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and had little influence on Indian summer monsoon (ISM), whereas after the late 1990s (the POST epoch), the WPSH has strengthened its linkage to the ISM while weakened its relationship with the EASM. This epochal change is associated with a change in the leading circulation mode in the Asia-WP region. During the PRE (POST) epoch the WPSH variation is mainly controlled by the AOI (CP forcing) that mainly affects EASM (ISM). The epochal change of the leading mode may be attributed to the change of the ENSO properties in late 1990s: the CP types of El Nino become a leading ENSO mode in the POST epoch. This work provides a new perspective for understanding decadal changes of the ENSO-monsoon relationship through subtropical dynamics.

  1. Where do forests influence rainfall? (United States)

    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; van der Ent, Ruud; Fetzer, Ingo; Keys, Patrick; Savenije, Hubert; Gordon, Line


    Forests play a major role in hydrology. Not only by immediate control of soil moisture and streamflow, but also by regulating climate through evaporation (i.e., transpiration, interception, and soil evaporation). The process of evaporation travelling through the atmosphere and returning as precipitation on land is known as moisture recycling. Whether evaporation is recycled depends on wind direction and geography. Moisture recycling and forest change studies have primarily focused on either one region (e.g. the Amazon), or one biome type (e.g. tropical humid forests). We will advance this via a systematic global inter-comparison of forest change impacts on precipitation depending on both biome type and geographic location. The rainfall effects are studied for three contemporary forest changes: afforestation, deforestation, and replacement of mature forest by forest plantations. Furthermore, as there are indications in the literature that moisture recycling in some places intensifies during dry years, we will also compare the rainfall impacts of forest change between wet and dry years. We model forest change effects on evaporation using the global hydrological model STEAM and trace precipitation changes using the atmospheric moisture tracking scheme WAM-2layers. This research elucidates the role of geographical location of forest change driven modifications on rainfall as a function of the type of forest change and climatic conditions. These knowledge gains are important at a time of both rapid forest and climate change. Our conclusions nuance our understanding of how forests regulate climate and pinpoint hotspot regions for forest-rainfall coupling.

  2. Rainfall Erosivity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale


    Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the Rfactor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national...... and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based...

  3. Spatio Temporal Detection and Virtual Mapping of Landslide Using High-Resolution Airborne Laser Altimetry (lidar) in Densely Vegetated Areas of Tropics (United States)

    Bibi, T.; Azahari Razak, K.; Rahman, A. Abdul; Latif, A.


    Landslides are an inescapable natural disaster, resulting in massive social, environmental and economic impacts all over the world. The tropical, mountainous landscape in generally all over Malaysia especially in eastern peninsula (Borneo) is highly susceptible to landslides because of heavy rainfall and tectonic disturbances. The purpose of the Landslide hazard mapping is to identify the hazardous regions for the execution of mitigation plans which can reduce the loss of life and property from future landslide incidences. Currently, the Malaysian research bodies e.g. academic institutions and government agencies are trying to develop a landslide hazard and risk database for susceptible areas to backing the prevention, mitigation, and evacuation plan. However, there is a lack of devotion towards landslide inventory mapping as an elementary input of landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk mapping. The developing techniques based on remote sensing technologies (satellite, terrestrial and airborne) are promising techniques to accelerate the production of landslide maps, shrinking the time and resources essential for their compilation and orderly updates. The aim of the study is to provide a better perception regarding the use of virtual mapping of landslides with the help of LiDAR technology. The focus of the study is spatio temporal detection and virtual mapping of landslide inventory via visualization and interpretation of very high-resolution data (VHR) in forested terrain of Mesilau river, Kundasang. However, to cope with the challenges of virtual inventory mapping on in forested terrain high resolution LiDAR derivatives are used. This study specifies that the airborne LiDAR technology can be an effective tool for mapping landslide inventories in a complex climatic and geological conditions, and a quick way of mapping regional hazards in the tropics.

  4. Rainfall prediction with backpropagation method (United States)

    Wahyuni, E. G.; Fauzan, L. M. F.; Abriyani, F.; Muchlis, N. F.; Ulfa, M.


    Rainfall is an important factor in many fields, such as aviation and agriculture. Although it has been assisted by technology but the accuracy can not reach 100% and there is still the possibility of error. Though current rainfall prediction information is needed in various fields, such as agriculture and aviation fields. In the field of agriculture, to obtain abundant and quality yields, farmers are very dependent on weather conditions, especially rainfall. Rainfall is one of the factors that affect the safety of aircraft. To overcome the problems above, then it’s required a system that can accurately predict rainfall. In predicting rainfall, artificial neural network modeling is applied in this research. The method used in modeling this artificial neural network is backpropagation method. Backpropagation methods can result in better performance in repetitive exercises. This means that the weight of the ANN interconnection can approach the weight it should be. Another advantage of this method is the ability in the learning process adaptively and multilayer owned on this method there is a process of weight changes so as to minimize error (fault tolerance). Therefore, this method can guarantee good system resilience and consistently work well. The network is designed using 4 input variables, namely air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration and 3 output variables ie low rainfall, medium rainfall, and high rainfall. Based on the research that has been done, the network can be used properly, as evidenced by the results of the prediction of the system precipitation is the same as the results of manual calculations.

  5. Contrasting vulnerability of drained tropical and high-latitude peatlands to fluvial loss of stored carbon (United States)

    Evans, Chris D.; Page, Susan E.; Jones, Tim; Moore, Sam; Gauci, Vincent; Laiho, Raija; Hruška, Jakub; Allott, Tim E. H.; Billett, Michael F.; Tipping, Ed; Freeman, Chris; Garnett, Mark H.


    Carbon sequestration and storage in peatlands rely on consistently high water tables. Anthropogenic pressures including drainage, burning, land conversion for agriculture, timber, and biofuel production, cause loss of pressures including drainage, burning, land conversion for agriculture, timber, and biofuel production, cause loss of peat-forming vegetation and exposure of previously anaerobic peat to aerobic decomposition. This can shift peatlands from net CO2 sinks to large CO2 sources, releasing carbon held for millennia. Peatlands also export significant quantities of carbon via fluvial pathways, mainly as dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We analyzed radiocarbon (14C) levels of DOC in drainage water from multiple peatlands in Europe and Southeast Asia, to infer differences in the age of carbon lost from intact and drained systems. In most cases, drainage led to increased release of older carbon from the peat profile but with marked differences related to peat type. Very low DOC-14C levels in runoff from drained tropical peatlands indicate loss of very old (centuries to millennia) stored peat carbon. High-latitude peatlands appear more resilient to drainage; 14C measurements from UK blanket bogs suggest that exported DOC remains young (use changes in the tropics. Data from the UK Peak District, an area where air pollution and intensive land management have triggered Sphagnum loss and peat erosion, suggest that additional anthropogenic pressures may trigger fluvial loss of much older (>500 year) carbon in high-latitude systems. Rewetting at least partially offsets drainage effects on DOC age.

  6. What do we know about Indonesian tropical lakes? Insights from high frequency measurement (United States)

    Budi Santoso, Arianto; Triwisesa, Endra; Fakhrudin, Muh.; Harsono, Eko; Agita Rustini, Hadiid


    When measuring ecological variables in lakes, sampling frequency is critical in capturing an environmental pattern. Discrete sampling of traditional monitoring programs is likely to result in vital knowledge gaps in understanding any processes particularly those with fine temporal scale characteristics. The development of high frequency measurements offer a sophisticated range of information in recording any events in lakes at a finer time scale. We present physical indices of a tropical deep Lake Maninjau arrayed from OnLine Monitoring System (OLM). It is revealed that Lake Maninjau mostly has a diurnal thermal stratification pattern. The calculated lake stability (Schmidt stability), however, follows a seasonal pattern; low in December-January and around August, and high in May and September. Using a 3D numerical model simulation (ELCOM), we infer how wind and solar radiation intensity control lake’s temperature profiles. In this review, we highlight the needs of high frequency measurement establishment in Indonesian tropical lakes to better understand the unique processes and to support the authorities’ decision making in maximizing the provision of ecosystem services supplied by lakes and reservoirs.

  7. Validation Of TRMM For Hazard Assessment In The Remote Context Of Tropical Africa (United States)

    Monsieurs, E.; Kirschbaum, D.; Tan, J.; Jacobs, L.; Kervyn, M.; Demoulin, A.; Dewitte, O.


    Accurate rainfall data is fundamental for understanding and mitigating the disastrous effects of many rainfall-triggered hazards, especially when one considers the challenges arising from climate change and rainfall variability. In tropical Africa in particular, the sparse operational rainfall gauging network hampers the ability to understand these hazards. Satellite rainfall estimates (SRE) can therefore be of great value. Yet, rigorous validation is required to identify the uncertainties when using SRE for hazard applications. We evaluated the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 Research Derived Daily Product from 1998 to 2017, at 0.25° x 0.25° spatial and 24 h temporal resolution. The validation was done over the western branch of the East African Rift, with the perspective of regional landslide hazard assessment in mind. Even though we collected an unprecedented dataset of 47 gauges with a minimum temporal resolution of 24 h, the sparse and heterogeneous temporal coverage in a region with high rainfall variability poses challenges for validation. In addition, the discrepancy between local-scale gauge data and spatially averaged ( 775 km²) TMPA data in the context of local convective storms and orographic rainfall is a crucial source of uncertainty. We adopted a flexible framework for SRE validation that fosters explorative research in a remote context. Results show that TMPA performs reasonably well during the rainy seasons for rainfall intensities controls on, and uncertainties of, TMPA revealed in this study. Moreover, it is found relevant in mapping regional-scale rainfall-triggered hazards that are in any case poorly covered by the sparse available gauges. We anticipate validation of TMPA's successor (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement; 10 km × 10 km, half-hourly) using the proposed framework, as soon as this product will be available in early 2018 for the

  8. Solar Variability Controls on Rainfall in the Last Millennia: Evidence from a Highly Resolved Stalagmite Record from DeSoto Caverns (USA) (United States)

    Aharon, P.; Lambert, W.; Hellstrom, J.


    Moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) inland has a considerable influence on both regional and continental rainfall patterns. Recent episodes of drought in the Southeastern USA exposed the vulnerability of the regional infrastructure to climate changes and gave rise to inter-state “water wars”. In order to better understand the cause of these periodic droughts and their controlling climate factors we have initiated a study of stalagmites from the DeSoto Caverns (Alabama, USA) that intersect the moisture flow from GOM. Combination of unusually high growth rates (up to 2 mm/decade), prominent dark and light seasonal layers, pristine aragonite mineralogy, precise U/Th dates acquired from mg-size samples and tight sampling (n=195) afforded generation of biannual (δ18O and δ13C of exceptional clarity spanning the last 700 yrs. The stalagmite (DSSG1) top yields isotope values (δ18O=-5.5 per-mill VPDB; δ13C=-10.1 per-mill VPDB) that are in good agreement with the predicted equilibrium isotope values. The oxygen and carbon isotope records exhibit a number of alternating negative and positive phase changes of correspond exactly with the Sun quiescence periods known as Dalton, Maunder, Spörer and Wolf Minima, and are corroborated by agreement with the positive shifts in atmospheric radiocarbon levels. Using a forward model we interpret the positive and negative δ18O and δ13C shifts during solar maxima and minima, respectively, as being primarily an expression of rapid shifts in rainfall sourced from GOM moisture and alternating between low and high rainfall intervals. The low and high rainfall intervals discerned in the stalagmite correspond to contemporaneous SST rise and fall in GOM and the Caribbean of about 1 oC amplitude. We suggest that small but measurable SST changes in the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP), controlled by solar radiation changes between maxima and minima cycles, have a pronounced effect on the continental rainfall pattern. The

  9. TRMM 3-Hourly 0.25 deg. TRMM and Other-GPI Calibration Rainfall Data V7 (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint U.S.-Japan satellite mission to monitor tropical and subtropical precipitation and to estimate its...

  10. The effects of high temperature on cardiovascular admissions in the most populous tropical city in Vietnam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phung, Dung; Guo, Yuming; Thai, Phong; Rutherford, Shannon; Wang, Xiaoming; Nguyen, Minh; Do, Cuong Manh; Nguyen, Nga Huy; Alam, Noore; Chu, Cordia


    This study examined the short-term effects of temperature on cardiovascular hospital admissions (CHA) in the largest tropical city in Southern Vietnam. We applied Poisson time-series regression models with Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model (DLNM) to examine the temperature-CHA association while adjusting for seasonal and long-term trends, day of the week, holidays, and humidity. The threshold temperature and added effects of heat waves were also evaluated. The exposure-response curve of temperature-CHA reveals a J-shape relationship with a threshold temperature of 29.6 °C. The delayed effects temperature-CHA lasted for a week (0–5 days). The overall risk of CHA increased 12.9% (RR, 1.129; 95%CI, 0.972–1.311) during heatwave events, which were defined as temperature ≥ the 99th percentile for ≥2 consecutive days. The modification roles of gender and age were inconsistent and non-significant in this study. An additional prevention program that reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease in relation to high temperatures should be developed. - Highlights: • The relationship between temperature and cardiovascular admissions is inconclusive. • There is lack of study in temperature–health effect in developing tropical country. • Heatwave events cause 12.9% increase in cardiovascular admissions. • A prevention program for temperature-cardiovascular risk should be developed. - The study reveals a positive relationship between temperature and cardiovascular admissions, which has been inconclusive from previous studies and has rarely been studied in tropical areas.

  11. Multilocus sequence analysis (MLSA) of Bradyrhizobium strains: revealing high diversity of tropical diazotrophic symbiotic bacteria. (United States)

    Delamuta, Jakeline Renata Marçon; Ribeiro, Renan Augusto; Menna, Pâmela; Bangel, Eliane Villamil; Hungria, Mariangela


    Symbiotic association of several genera of bacteria collectively called as rhizobia and plants belonging to the family Leguminosae (=Fabaceae) results in the process of biological nitrogen fixation, playing a key role in global N cycling, and also bringing relevant contributions to the agriculture. Bradyrhizobium is considered as the ancestral of all nitrogen-fixing rhizobial species, probably originated in the tropics. The genus encompasses a variety of diverse bacteria, but the diversity captured in the analysis of the 16S rRNA is often low. In this study, we analyzed twelve Bradyrhizobium strains selected from previous studies performed by our group for showing high genetic diversity in relation to the described species. In addition to the 16S rRNA, five housekeeping genes (recA, atpD, glnII, gyrB and rpoB) were analyzed in the MLSA (multilocus sequence analysis) approach. Analysis of each gene and of the concatenated housekeeping genes captured a considerably higher level of genetic diversity, with indication of putative new species. The results highlight the high genetic variability associated with Bradyrhizobium microsymbionts of a variety of legumes. In addition, the MLSA approach has proved to represent a rapid and reliable method to be employed in phylogenetic and taxonomic studies, speeding the identification of the still poorly known diversity of nitrogen-fixing rhizobia in the tropics.

  12. High-frequency DOC and nitrate measurements provide new insights into their export and their relationships to rainfall-runoff processes (United States)

    Schwab, Michael; Klaus, Julian; Pfister, Laurent; Weiler, Markus


    Over the past decades, stream sampling protocols for environmental tracers were often limited by logistical and technological constraints. Long-term sampling programs would typically rely on weekly sampling campaigns, while high-frequency sampling would remain restricted to a few days or hours at best. We stipulate that the currently predominant sampling protocols are too coarse to capture and understand the full amplitude of rainfall-runoff processes and its relation to water quality fluctuations. Weekly sampling protocols are not suited to get insights into the hydrological system during high flow conditions. Likewise, high frequency measurements of a few isolated events do not allow grasping inter-event variability in contributions and processes. Our working hypothesis is based on the potential of a new generation of field-deployable instruments for measuring environmental tracers at high temporal frequencies over an extended period. With this new generation of instruments we expect to gain new insights into rainfall-runoff dynamics, both at intra- and inter-event scales. Here, we present the results of one year of DOC and nitrate measurements with the field deployable UV-Vis spectrometer spectro::lyser (scan Messtechnik GmbH). The instrument measures the absorption spectrum from 220 to 720 nm in situ and at high frequencies and derives DOC and nitrate concentrations. The measurements were carried out at 15 minutes intervals in the Weierbach catchment (0.47 km2) in Luxemburg. This fully forested catchment is characterized by cambisol soils and fractured schist as underlying bedrock. The time series of DOC and nitrate give insights into the high frequency dynamics of stream water. Peaks in DOC concentrations are closely linked to discharge peaks that occur during or right after a rainfall event. Those first discharge peaks can be linked to fast near surface runoff processes and are responsible for a remarkable amount of DOC export. A special characterisation of

  13. Water vapor stable isotope observations from tropical Australia

    KAUST Repository

    Parkes, Stephen


    The response of the tropical hydrological cycle to anthropogenically induced changes in radiative forcing is one of the largest discrepancies between climate models. Paleoclimate archives of the stable isotopic composition of precipitation in the tropics indicate a relationship with precipitation amount that could be exploited to study past hydroclimate and improve our knowledge of how this region responds to changes in climate forcing. Recently modelling studies of convective parameterizations fitted with water isotopes and remote sensing of water vapor isotopes in the tropics have illustrated uncertainty in the assumed relationship with rainfall amount. Therefore there is a need to collect water isotope data in the tropics that can be used to evaluate these models and help identify the relationships between the isotopic composition of meteoric waters and rainfall intensity. However, data in this region is almost non-existent. Here we present in-situ water vapor isotopic measurements and the HDO retrievals from the co-located Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON) site at Darwin in Tropical Australia. The Darwin site is interestingly placed within the tropical western pacific region and is impacted upon by a clear monsoonal climate, and key climate cycles including ENSO and Madden Julian Oscillations. The analysis of the data illustrated relationships between water vapor isotopes and humidity which demonstrated the role of precipitation processes in the wet season and air mass mixing during the dry season. Further the wet season observations show complex relationships between humidity and isotopes. A simple Rayleigh distillation model was not obeyed, instead the importance of rainfall re-evaporation in generating the highly depleted signatures was demonstrated. These data potentially provide a useful tool for evaluating model parameterizations in monsoonal regions as they demonstrate relationships with precipitation processes that cannot be observed with

  14. Eventos extremos de precipitação no estado do Ceará e suas relações com a temperatura dos oceanos tropicais Extreme rainfall events in Ceará state and its relationship with tropical oceans temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos


    Full Text Available O principal objetivo deste trabalho é prover informações sobre as tendências recentes dos eventos extremos de precipitação sobre o Estado do Ceará, associando esses eventos extremos às anomalias de Temperatura da Superfície do Mar (TSM nos Oceanos Pacífico e Atlântico. Foram utilizados dados pluviométricos de 18 postos de 1971 a 2006 e o método de Mann-Kendall foi utilizado na obtenção das tendências. Os resultados mostram que existem características de aumento nas intensidades das secas e diminuição dos eventos de precipitação forte, e que o aumento nas anomalias de TSM no Pacífico e ao norte do equador, no Oceano Atlântico, acarreta em um aumento do número de dias consecutivos secos no norte do Ceará. Os índices extremos de precipitação mostraram correlações negativas com as anomalias de TSM nas regiões do Pacífico do Atlântico Tropical Norte e positivas com a região do Atlântico Tropical Sul. Entretanto, para a região sul do Ceará, o comportamento dos dias consecutivos chuvosos indica que o período chuvoso é governado por outros sistemas atmosféricos, necessitando assim, ser melhor estudado para o entendimento desse comportamento.The main objective of this study is to provide information about recent trends of extreme rainfall over Ceará State, associating these extreme events with Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Mann-Kendall method is applied to rainfall data of 18 rain gauges from 1971 to 2006 to obtain the trends. The results show that the drought intensity is increasing and the heavy precipitation events are decreasing and that the increase in the Pacific and north of equator Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies lead to an increase in the number of consecutive dry days in northern Ceará. Rainfall extreme indices have shown negative correlations with SST anomalies on Pacific and Tropical North Atlantic regions and positive with Tropical South Atlantic region

  15. Uncertainties of the rainfall regime in a tropical semi-arid region: the case of the State of Ceará. = Incertezas do regime pluviométrico no semiárido tropical: o caso do estado do Ceará

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eunice Maia de Andrade


    Full Text Available The rural population of a tropical semi-arid region such as the northeast of Brazil is directly dependent on rainfall for agricultural production, pasture for livestock, and the storage of drinking water for human consumption. The region is characterised by the frequent occurrence of dry years and consecutive dry days (CDD during the rainy season, demonstrating the vulnerability of rainfed agriculture. The aim of this study therefore, was to identify homogeneous regions of the State of Ceará where there is greater or lesser uncertainty of the rainfall regime. Accordingly, the occurrence of dry and very dry years were investigated as uncertainties between years, together with the occurrence of two classes of CDD (10-20 and 21-30 days during the rainy season. To define similar regions as to the uncertainty of the rainfall regime, the technique of Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA was used. The study considered time series of least 30 years, from 77 rain gauge stations around the state of Ceará. The use of HCA resulted in the formation of seven homogenous groups in both of the phenomena being investigated. Municipalities in the Central Backlands, the Inhamuns Backlands and the Jaguaribana Region displayed a higher frequency of both inter-annual (dry years and intra-annual (CDD uncertainty, demonstrating the greater vulnerability of rainfed agriculture. The occurrence of a CDD event is not dependent on the total annual rainfall, as several stations with an average rainfall higher than that of the state showed potential for the occurrence of CDD. The number of CDD events recorded in the 11-20 day class was higher than in the 21-30 day class. = A população rural das regiões semiáridas tropicais como o Nordeste brasileiro é diretamente dependente das chuvas para a produção agrícola, pasto para os animais domésticos e armazenamento de água potável para consumo humano. A região se caracteriza pela frequente ocorrência de anos secos e de

  16. Sensitivity of MENA Tropical Rainbelt to Dust Shortwave Absorption: A High Resolution AGCM Experiment

    KAUST Repository

    Bangalath, Hamza Kunhu


    Shortwave absorption is one of the most important, but the most uncertain, components of direct radiative effect by mineral dust. It has a broad range of estimates from different observational and modeling studies and there is no consensus on the strength of absorption. To elucidate the sensitivity of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) tropical summer rainbelt to a plausible range of uncertainty in dust shortwave absorption, AMIP-style global high resolution (25 km) simulations are conducted with and without dust, using the High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). Simulations with dust comprise three different cases by assuming dust as a very efficient, standard and inefficient absorber. Inter-comparison of these simulations shows that the response of the MENA tropical rainbelt is extremely sensitive to the strength of shortwave absorption. Further analyses reveal that the sensitivity of the rainbelt stems from the sensitivity of the multi-scale circulations that define the rainbelt. The maximum response and sensitivity are predicted over the northern edge of the rainbelt, geographically over Sahel. The sensitivity of the responses over the Sahel, especially that of precipitation, is comparable to the mean state. Locally, the response in precipitation reaches up to 50% of the mean, while dust is assumed to be a very efficient absorber. Taking into account that Sahel has a very high climate variability and is extremely vulnerable to changes in precipitation, the present study suggests the importance of reducing uncertainty in dust shortwave absorption for a better simulation and interpretation of the Sahel climate.

  17. Use of ancient sedimentary DNA as a novel conservation tool for high-altitude tropical biodiversity. (United States)

    Boessenkool, Sanne; McGlynn, Gayle; Epp, Laura S; Taylor, David; Pimentel, Manuel; Gizaw, Abel; Nemomissa, Sileshi; Brochmann, Christian; Popp, Magnus


    Conservation of biodiversity may in the future increasingly depend upon the availability of scientific information to set suitable restoration targets. In traditional paleoecology, sediment-based pollen provides a means to define preanthropogenic impact conditions, but problems in establishing the exact provenance and ecologically meaningful levels of taxonomic resolution of the evidence are limiting. We explored the extent to which the use of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) may complement pollen data in reconstructing past alpine environments in the tropics. We constructed a record of afro-alpine plants retrieved from DNA preserved in sediment cores from 2 volcanic crater sites in the Albertine Rift, eastern Africa. The record extended well beyond the onset of substantial anthropogenic effects on tropical mountains. To ensure high-quality taxonomic inference from the sedaDNA sequences, we built an extensive DNA reference library covering the majority of the afro-alpine flora, by sequencing DNA from taxonomically verified specimens. Comparisons with pollen records from the same sediment cores showed that plant diversity recovered with sedaDNA improved vegetation reconstructions based on pollen records by revealing both additional taxa and providing increased taxonomic resolution. Furthermore, combining the 2 measures assisted in distinguishing vegetation change at different geographic scales; sedaDNA almost exclusively reflects local vegetation, whereas pollen can potentially originate from a wide area that in highlands in particular can span several ecozones. Our results suggest that sedaDNA may provide information on restoration targets and the nature and magnitude of human-induced environmental changes, including in high conservation priority, biodiversity hotspots, where understanding of preanthropogenic impact (or reference) conditions is highly limited. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  18. Sensitivity of MENA Tropical Rainbelt to Dust Shortwave Absorption: A High Resolution AGCM Experiment

    KAUST Repository

    Bangalath, Hamza Kunhu; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.


    Shortwave absorption is one of the most important, but the most uncertain, components of direct radiative effect by mineral dust. It has a broad range of estimates from different observational and modeling studies and there is no consensus on the strength of absorption. To elucidate the sensitivity of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) tropical summer rainbelt to a plausible range of uncertainty in dust shortwave absorption, AMIP-style global high resolution (25 km) simulations are conducted with and without dust, using the High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). Simulations with dust comprise three different cases by assuming dust as a very efficient, standard and inefficient absorber. Inter-comparison of these simulations shows that the response of the MENA tropical rainbelt is extremely sensitive to the strength of shortwave absorption. Further analyses reveal that the sensitivity of the rainbelt stems from the sensitivity of the multi-scale circulations that define the rainbelt. The maximum response and sensitivity are predicted over the northern edge of the rainbelt, geographically over Sahel. The sensitivity of the responses over the Sahel, especially that of precipitation, is comparable to the mean state. Locally, the response in precipitation reaches up to 50% of the mean, while dust is assumed to be a very efficient absorber. Taking into account that Sahel has a very high climate variability and is extremely vulnerable to changes in precipitation, the present study suggests the importance of reducing uncertainty in dust shortwave absorption for a better simulation and interpretation of the Sahel climate.

  19. Predicting spatial variations of tree species richness in tropical forests from high-resolution remote sensing. (United States)

    Fricker, Geoffrey A; Wolf, Jeffrey A; Saatchi, Sassan S; Gillespie, Thomas W


    There is an increasing interest in identifying theories, empirical data sets, and remote-sensing metrics that can quantify tropical forest alpha diversity at a landscape scale. Quantifying patterns of tree species richness in the field is time consuming, especially in regions with over 100 tree species/ha. We examine species richness in a 50-ha plot in Barro Colorado Island in Panama and test if biophysical measurements of canopy reflectance from high-resolution satellite imagery and detailed vertical forest structure and topography from light detection and ranging (lidar) are associated with species richness across four tree size classes (>1, 1-10, >10, and >20 cm dbh) and three spatial scales (1, 0.25, and 0.04 ha). We use the 2010 tree inventory, including 204,757 individuals belonging to 301 species of freestanding woody plants or 166 ± 1.5 species/ha (mean ± SE), to compare with remote-sensing data. All remote-sensing metrics became less correlated with species richness as spatial resolution decreased from 1.0 ha to 0.04 ha and tree size increased from 1 cm to 20 cm dbh. When all stems with dbh > 1 cm in 1-ha plots were compared to remote-sensing metrics, standard deviation in canopy reflectance explained 13% of the variance in species richness. The standard deviations of canopy height and the topographic wetness index (TWI) derived from lidar were the best metrics to explain the spatial variance in species richness (15% and 24%, respectively). Using multiple regression models, we made predictions of species richness across Barro Colorado Island (BCI) at the 1-ha spatial scale for different tree size classes. We predicted variation in tree species richness among all plants (adjusted r² = 0.35) and trees with dbh > 10 cm (adjusted r² = 0.25). However, the best model results were for understory trees and shrubs (dbh 1-10 cm) (adjusted r² = 0.52) that comprise the majority of species richness in tropical forests. Our results indicate that high

  20. Tropical Peatland Geomorphology and Hydrology (United States)

    Cobb, A.; Harvey, C. F.


    Tropical peatlands cover many low-lying areas in the tropics. In tropical peatlands, a feedback between hydrology, landscape morphology, and carbon storage causes waterlogged organic matter to accumulate into gently mounded land forms called peat domes over thousands of years. Peat domes have a stable morphology in which peat production is balanced by loss and net precipitation is balanced by lateral flow, creating a link between peatland morphology, rainfall patterns and drainage networks. We show how landscape morphology can be used to make inferences about hydrologic processes in tropical peatlands. In particular, we show that approaches using simple storage-discharge relationships for catchments are especially well suited to tropical peatlands, allowing river forecasting based on peatland morphology in catchments with tropical peatland subcatchments.

  1. Engineering of an Extreme Rainfall Detection System using Grid Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Terzo


    Full Text Available This paper describes a new approach for intensive rainfall data analysis. ITHACA's Extreme Rainfall Detection System (ERDS is conceived to provide near real-time alerts related to potential exceptional rainfalls worldwide, which can be used by WFP or other humanitarian assistance organizations to evaluate the event and understand the potentially floodable areas where their assistance is needed. This system is based on precipitation analysis and it uses rainfall data from satellite at worldwide extent. This project uses the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis dataset, a NASA-delivered near real-time product for current rainfall condition monitoring over the world. Considering the great deal of data to process, this paper presents an architectural solution based on Grid Computing techniques. Our focus is on the advantages of using a distributed architecture in terms of performances for this specific purpose.

  2. An investigation of tropical Atlantic bias in a high-resolution coupled regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patricola, Christina M.; Saravanan, R.; Hsieh, Jen-Shan [Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States); Li, Mingkui; Xu, Zhao [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Chang, Ping [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Second Institute of Oceanography, State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou, Zhejiang (China)


    Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) commonly fail to simulate the eastern equatorial Atlantic boreal summer cold tongue and produce a westerly equatorial trade wind bias. This tropical Atlantic bias problem is investigated with a high-resolution (27-km atmosphere represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, 9-km ocean represented by the Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled regional climate model. Uncoupled atmospheric simulations test climate sensitivity to cumulus, land-surface, planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and radiation parameterizations and reveal that the radiation scheme has a pronounced impact in the tropical Atlantic. The CAM radiation simulates a dry precipitation (up to -90%) and cold land-surface temperature (up to -8 K) bias over the Amazon related to an over-representation of low-level clouds and almost basin-wide westerly trade wind bias. The Rapid Radiative Transfer Model and Goddard radiation simulates doubled Amazon and Congo Basin precipitation rates and a weak eastern Atlantic trade wind bias. Season-long high-resolution coupled regional model experiments indicate that the initiation of the warm eastern equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias is more sensitive to the local rather than basin-wide trade wind bias and to a wet Congo Basin instead of dry Amazon - which differs from AOGCM simulations. Comparisons between coupled and uncoupled simulations suggest a regional Bjerknes feedback confined to the eastern equatorial Atlantic amplifies the initial SST, wind, and deepened thermocline bias, while barrier layer feedbacks are relatively unimportant. The SST bias in some CRCM simulations resembles the typical AOGCM bias indicating that increasing resolution is unlikely a simple solution to this problem. (orig.)

  3. Calibration of cosmogenic 3He and 10Be production rates in the High Tropics (United States)

    Blard, Pierre-Henri; Martin, Léo; Lavé, Jérôme; Charreau, Julien; Condom, Thomas; Lupker, Maarten; Braucher, Régis; Bourlès, Didier


    It is critical to refine both the accuracy and the precision of the in situ cosmogenic dating tool, especially for establishing reliable glacial chronologies that can be compared to other paleoclimatic records. Recent cross-calibrations of cosmogenic 3He in pyroxene and 10Be in quartz [1, 2] showed that, both at low (1300 m) and high elevation (4850 m), the 3He/10Be production ratio was probably ~40% higher than the value of ~23 initially defined in the 90's. This recent update is consistent with the last independent determinations of the sea level high latitude production rates of 10Be and 3He, that are about 4 and 125 at.g-1.yr-1, respectively [e.g. 3, 4]. However, major questions remain about these production rates at high elevation, notably because existing calibration sites for both 3He and 10Be are scarce above 2000 m. It is thus crucial to produce new high precision calibration data at high elevation. Here we report cosmogenic 10Be data from boulders sampled on a glacial fan located at 3800 m in the Central Altiplano (Bolivia), whose age is independently constrained by stratigraphic correlations and radiocarbon dating at ca. 16 ka. These data can be used to calibrate the production rate of 10Be at high elevation, in the Tropics. After scaling to sea level and high latitude, these data yield a sea level high latitude P10 ranging from 3.8 to 4.2 at.g-1.yr-1, depending on the used scaling scheme. These new calibration data are in good agreement with recent absolute and cross-calibration of 3He in pyroxenes and 10Be in quartz, from dacitic moraines located at 4850 m in the Southern Altiplano (22° S, Tropical Andes) [2,5]. The so-obtained 3He/10Be production ratio of 33.3±0.9 (1σ) combined with an absolute 3He production rate locally calibrated in the Central Altiplano, at 3800 m, indeed yielded a sea level high latitude P10 ranging from 3.7±0.2 to 4.1±0.2 at.g-1.yr-1, depending on the scaling scheme [2,5]. These values are also consistent with the 10Be

  4. Darfur: rainfall and conflict (United States)

    Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie


    Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972 2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- and post-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, and is less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but the decline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysis suggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlier is a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa.

  5. Darfur: rainfall and conflict

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie


    Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972-2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- and post-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, and is less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but the decline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysis suggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlier is a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa

  6. Application of Statistical Downscaling Techniques to Predict Rainfall and Its Spatial Analysis Over Subansiri River Basin of Assam, India (United States)

    Barman, S.; Bhattacharjya, R. K.


    The River Subansiri is the major north bank tributary of river Brahmaputra. It originates from the range of Himalayas beyond the Great Himalayan range at an altitude of approximately 5340m. Subansiri basin extends from tropical to temperate zones and hence exhibits a great diversity in rainfall characteristics. In the Northern and Central Himalayan tracts, precipitation is scarce on account of high altitudes. On the other hand, Southeast part of the Subansiri basin comprising the sub-Himalayan and the plain tract in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, lies in the tropics. Due to Northeast as well as Southwest monsoon, precipitation occurs in this region in abundant quantities. Particularly, Southwest monsoon causes very heavy precipitation in the entire Subansiri basin during May to October. In this study, the rainfall over Subansiri basin has been studied at 24 different locations by multiple linear and non-linear regression based statistical downscaling techniques and by Artificial Neural Network based model. APHRODITE's gridded rainfall data of 0.25˚ x 0.25˚ resolutions and climatic parameters of HadCM3 GCM of resolution 2.5˚ x 3.75˚ (latitude by longitude) have been used in this study. It has been found that multiple non-linear regression based statistical downscaling technique outperformed the other techniques. Using this method, the future rainfall pattern over the Subansiri basin has been analyzed up to the year 2099 for four different time periods, viz., 2020-39, 2040-59, 2060-79, and 2080-99 at all the 24 locations. On the basis of historical rainfall, the months have been categorized as wet months, months with moderate rainfall and dry months. The spatial changes in rainfall patterns for all these three types of months have also been analyzed over the basin. Potential decrease of rainfall in the wet months and months with moderate rainfall and increase of rainfall in the dry months are observed for the future rainfall pattern of the Subansiri basin.

  7. Treatment of high-strength wastewater in tropical constructed wetlands planted with Sesbania sesban: Horizontal subsurface flow versus vertical downflow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dan, Truong Hoang; Quang, Le Nhat; Chiem, Nguyen Huu


    Treatment of various types of wastewaters is an urgent problem in densely populated areas of many tropical countries. We studied the potential of using Sesbania sesban, an N2-fixing shrub, in constructed wetland systems for the treatment of high-strength wastewater. A replicated horizontal subsur...

  8. High signal in the spinal cord on T2-weighted images in rapidly progressive tropical spastic paraparesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watanabe, M.; Hara, A.; Murakami, T.; Ando, Y.; Uyama, E.; Mita, S.; Uchino, M. [Kumamoto Univ. (Japan). School of Medicine; Yamashita, T. [Kumamoto Univ. (Japan). School of Medicine; Dept. of Neurology, Kumamoto Univ. (Japan)


    We report a 59-year-old woman with human T-cell lymphotrophic virus type-I (HTLV-I) associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis who showed high signal in the cervical and thoracic spinal cord on T2-weighted and contrast enhancement on T1-weighted images. (orig.)

  9. Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links (United States)

    Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire


    Urban areas often lack rainfall information. To increase the number of rainfall observations in cities, microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed. Although this new potential source of rainfall information has been shown to be promising, its quality needs to be demonstrated more extensively. In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Part of this project is rainfall estimation using new measurement techniques. Innovative sensing techniques will be utilized such as rainfall estimation from microwave links, umbrellas for weather sensing, low-cost sensors at lamp posts and in drainage pipes for water level observation. These will be combined with information provided by citizens in an active way through smartphone apps and in a passive way through social media posts (Twitter, Flickr etc.). Sensor information will be integrated, visualized and made accessible to citizens to help raise citizen awareness of urban water management challenges and promote resilience by providing information on how citizens can contribute in addressing these. Moreover, citizens and businesses can benefit from reliable weather information in planning their social and commercial activities. In the end city-wide high-resolution rainfall maps will be derived, blending rainfall information from microwave links and weather radars. This information will be used for urban water management. This presentation focuses on rainfall estimation from commercial microwave links. Received signal levels from tens of microwave links within the Amsterdam region (roughly 1 million inhabitants) in the Netherlands are utilized to estimate rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolution. Rainfall maps will be presented and compared to a gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data set. Rainfall time series from gauge(s), radars and links will be compared.

  10. Convective Mode and Mesoscale Heavy Rainfall Forecast Challenges during a High-Impact Weather Period along the Gulf Coast and Florida from 17-20 May 2016 (United States)

    Bosart, L. F.; Wallace, B. C.


    Two high-impact convective storm forecast challenges occurred between 17-20 May 2016 during NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecast Experiment (SFE) at the Storm Prediction Center. The first forecast challenge was 286 mm of unexpected record-breaking rain that fell on Vero Beach (VRB), Florida, between 1500 UTC 17 May and 0600 UTC 18 May, more than doubling the previous May daily rainfall record. The record rains in VRB occurred subsequent to the formation of a massive MCS over the central Gulf of Mexico between 0900-1000 UTC 17 May. This MCS, linked to the earlier convection associated with an anomalously strong subtropical jet (STJ) over the Gulf of Mexico, moved east-northeastward toward Florida. The second forecast challenge was a large MCS that formed over the Mexican mountains near the Texas-Mexican border, moved eastward and grew upscale prior to 1200 UTC 19 May. This MCS further strengthened offshore after 1800 UTC 19 May beneath the STJ. SPC SFE participants expected this MCS to move east-northeastward and bring heavy rain due to training echoes along the Gulf coast as far eastward as the Florida panhandle. Instead, this MCS transitioned into a bowing MCS that resembled a low-end derecho and produced a 4-6 hPa cold pool with widespread surface wind gusts between 35-50 kt. Both MCS events occurred in a large-scale baroclinic environment along the northern Gulf coast. Both MCS events responded to antecedent convection within this favorable large-scale environment. Rainfall amounts with the first heavy rain-producing MCS were severely underestimated by models and forecasters alike. The second MCS produced the greatest forecaster angst because rainfall totals were forecast too high (MCS propagated too fast) and severe wind reports were much more widespread than anticipated (because of cold pool formation). This presentation will attempt to untangle what happened and why it happened.

  11. Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes Under Warming Climate in Urban India (United States)

    Ali, H.; Mishra, V.


    Extreme rainfall events in urban India halted transportation, damaged infrastructure, and affected human lives. Rainfall extremes are projected to increase under the future climate. We evaluated the relationship (scaling) between rainfall extremes at different temporal resolutions (daily, 3-hourly, and 30 minutes), daily dewpoint temperature (DPT) and daily air temperature at 850 hPa (T850) for 23 urban areas in India. Daily rainfall extremes obtained from Global Surface Summary of Day Data (GSOD) showed positive regression slopes for most of the cities with median of 14%/K for the period of 1979-2013 for DPT and T850, which is higher than Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) rate ( 7%). Moreover, sub-daily rainfall extremes are more sensitive to both DPT and T850. For instance, 3-hourly rainfall extremes obtained from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7) showed regression slopes more than 16%/K aginst DPT and T850 for the period of 1998-2015. Half-hourly rainfall extremes from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERGE) of Global precipitation mission (GPM) also showed higher sensitivity against changes in DPT and T850. The super scaling of rainfall extremes against changes in DPT and T850 can be attributed to convective nature of precipitation in India. Our results show that urban India may witness non-stationary rainfall extremes, which, in turn will affect stromwater designs and frequency and magniture of urban flooding.

  12. Uganda rainfall variability and prediction (United States)

    Jury, Mark R.


    This study analyzes large-scale controls on Uganda's rainfall. Unlike past work, here, a May-October season is used because of the year-round nature of agricultural production, vegetation sensitivity to rainfall, and disease transmission. The Uganda rainfall record exhibits steady oscillations of ˜3 and 6 years over 1950-2013. Correlation maps at two-season lead time resolve the subtropical ridge over global oceans as an important feature. Multi-variate environmental predictors include Dec-May south Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, east African upper zonal wind, and South Atlantic wind streamfunction, providing a 33% fit to May-Oct rainfall time series. Composite analysis indicates that cool-phase El Niño Southern Oscillation supports increased May-Oct Uganda rainfall via a zonal overturning lower westerly/upper easterly atmospheric circulation. Sea temperature anomalies are positive in the east Atlantic and negative in the west Indian Ocean in respect of wet seasons. The northern Hadley Cell plays a role in limiting the northward march of the equatorial trough from May to October. An analysis of early season floods found that moist inflow from the west Indian Ocean converges over Uganda, generating diurnal thunderstorm clusters that drift southwestward producing high runoff.

  13. Comparison of Explicitly Simulated and Downscaled Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirofumi Tomita


    Full Text Available The response of tropical cyclone activity to climate change is a matter of great inherent interest and practical importance. Most current global climate models are not, however, capable of adequately resolving tropical cyclones; this has led to the development of downscaling techniques designed to infer tropical cyclone activity from the large-scale fields produced by climate models. Here we compare the statistics of tropical cyclones simulated explicitly in a very high resolution (~14 km grid mesh global climate model to the results of one such downscaling technique driven by the same global model. This is done for a simulation of the current climate and also for a simulation of a climate warmed by the addition of carbon dioxide. The explicitly simulated and downscaled storms are similarly distributed in space, but the intensity distribution of the downscaled events has a somewhat longer high-intensity tail, owing to the higher resolution of the downscaling model. Both explicitly simulated and downscaled events show large increases in the frequency of events at the high-intensity ends of their respective intensity distributions, but the downscaled storms also show increases in low-intensity events, whereas the explicitly simulated weaker events decline in number. On the regional scale, there are large differences in the responses of the explicitly simulated and downscaled events to global warming. In particular, the power dissipation of downscaled events shows a 175% increase in the Atlantic, while the power dissipation of explicitly simulated events declines there.

  14. Tropical tele-connections to the Mediterranean climate and weather

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Alpert


    Full Text Available Some strong natural fluctuations of climate in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM region are shown to be connected to the major tropical systems. Potential relations between EM rainfall extremes to tropical systems, e.g. El Niño, Indian Monsoon and hurricanes, are demonstrated. For a specific event, high resolution modelling of the severe flood on 3-5 December 2001 in Israel suggests a relation to hurricane Olga. In order to understand the factors governing the EM climate variability in the summer season, the relationship between extreme summer temperatures and the Indian Monsoon was examined. Other tropical factors like the Red-Sea Trough system and the Saharan dust are also likely to contribute to the EM climate variability.

  15. High-resolution mapping of biomass burning emissions in tropical regions across three continents (United States)

    Shi, Yusheng; Matsunaga, Tsuneo; Saito, Makoto


    Biomass burning emissions from open vegetation fires (forest fires, savanna fires, agricultural waste burning), human waste and biofuel combustion contain large amounts of trace gases (e.g., CO2, CH4, and N2O) and aerosols (BC and OC), which significantly impact ecosystem productivity, global atmospheric chemistry, and climate . With the help of recently released satellite products, biomass density based on satellite and ground-based observation data, and spatial variable combustion factors, this study developed a new high-resolution emissions inventory for biomass burning in tropical regions across three continents in 2010. Emissions of trace gases and aerosols from open vegetation burning are estimated from burned areas, fuel loads, combustion factors, and emission factors. Burned areas were derived from MODIS MCD64A1 burned area product, fuel loads were mapped from biomass density data sets for herbaceous and tree-covered land based on satellite and ground-based observation data. To account for spatial heterogeneity in combustion factors, global fractional tree cover (MOD44B) and vegetation cover maps (MCD12Q1) were introduced to estimate the combustion factors in different regions by using their relationship with tree cover under less than 40%, between 40-60% and above 60% conditions. For emission factors, the average values for each fuel type from field measurements are used. In addition to biomass burning from open vegetation fires, the emissions from human waste (residential and dump) burning and biofuel burning in 2010 were also estimated for 76 countries in tropical regions across the three continents and then allocated into each pixel with 1 km grid based on the population density (Gridded Population of the World v3). Our total estimates for the tropical regions across the three continents in 2010 were 17744.5 Tg CO2, 730.3 Tg CO, 32.0 Tg CH4, 31.6 Tg NOx, 119.2 Tg NMOC, 6.3 Tg SO2, 9.8 NH3 Tg, 81.8 Tg PM2.5, 48.0 Tg OC, and 5.7 Tg BC, respectively. Open

  16. Vegetation Dynamics and Rainfall Sensitivity of the Amazon (United States)

    Hilker, Thomas; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Tucker, Compton J.; Hall, Forrest G.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Wang, Yujie; Bi, Jian; Mendes de Moura, Yhasmin; Sellers, Piers J.


    We show that the vegetation canopy of the Amazon rainforest is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns and that reduction in rainfall since 2000 has diminished vegetation greenness across large parts of Amazonia. Large-scale directional declines in vegetation greenness may indicate decreases in carbon uptake and substantial changes in the energy balance of the Amazon. We use improved estimates of surface reflectance from satellite data to show a close link between reductions in annual precipitation, El Nino southern oscillation events, and photosynthetic activity across tropical and subtropical Amazonia. We report that, since the year 2000, precipitation has declined across 69% of the tropical evergreen forest (5.4 million sq km) and across 80% of the subtropical grasslands (3.3 million sq km). These reductions, which coincided with a decline in terrestrial water storage, account for about 55% of a satellite-observed widespread decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). During El Nino events, NDVI was reduced about 16.6% across an area of up to 1.6 million sq km compared with average conditions. Several global circulation models suggest that a rise in equatorial sea surface temperature and related displacement of the intertropical convergence zone could lead to considerable drying of tropical forests in the 21st century. Our results provide evidence that persistent drying could degrade Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics.

  17. Estimating impact of rainfall change on hydrological processes in Jianfengling rainforest watershed, China using BASINS-HSPF-CAT modeling system (United States)

    Zhang Zhou; Ying Ouyang; Yide Li; Zhijun Qiu; Matt Moran


    Climate change over the past several decades has resulted in shifting rainfall pattern and modifying rain-fall intensity, which has exacerbated hydrological processes and added the uncertainty and instability tothese processes. This study ascertained impacts of potential future rainfall change on hydrological pro-cesses at the Jianfengling (JFL) tropical mountain...

  18. A stable isotope-based approach to tropical dendroclimatology (United States)

    Evans, Michael N.; Schrag, Daniel P.


    We describe a strategy for development of chronological control in tropical trees lacking demonstrably annual ring formation, using high resolution δ 18O measurements in tropical wood. The approach applies existing models of the oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose (Roden et al., 2000), a rapid method for cellulose extraction from raw wood (Brendel et al., 2000), and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Brenna et al., 1998) to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees lacking visible annual ring structure. Consistent with model predictions, pilot datasets from the temperate US and Costa Rica having independent chronological control suggest that observed cyclic isotopic signatures of several permil (SMOW) represent the annual cycle of local rainfall and relative humidity. Additional data from a plantation tree of known age from ENSO-sensitive northwestern coastal Peru suggests that the 1997-8 ENSO warm phase event was recorded as an 8‰ anomaly in the δ 18O of α-cellulose. The results demonstrate reproducibility of the stable isotopic chronometer over decades, two different climatic zones, and three tropical tree genera, and point to future applications in paleoclimatology.

  19. Northern Hemisphere Influence on the Position of the SPCZ During MIS3: a High Resolution Glacial Rainfall Record from a Niuean Speleothem (United States)

    Sinclair, D.; Sherrell, R. M.; Tremaine, D. M.; Sweeney, J. R.; Rowe, H.; Wright, J. D.; Mortlock, R. A.; Hellstrom, J. C.; Cheng, H.; Min, A.; Edwards, R. L.


    Here we present a high-resolution glacial paleorainfall record from the heart of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extracted from a stalagmite from the remote island of Niue (19°03'S 169°52'W). The record spans much of MIS3 (25-45 ka) and captures rapid rainfall changes associated with shifts in the SPCZ. It is clear that rapid climate shifts in the Northern Hemisphere have a strong influence on the SPCZ. All of the warm Dansgaard-Oeschger (`D-O') interstadials across this period are represented by rainfall increases, with D-O Events 9-11 particularly strongly represented. Since Niue lies south of the core of the SPCZ, this implies that rather than shifting northwards (as the ITCZ does), the SPCZ instead rotates clockwise in response to northern Hemisphere warming (analogous to a shift between modern El Nino and La Nina states). We propose that changes to surface ocean temperature gradients in the Eastern Pacific modulate the strength of the Wind Evaporation SST feedback, changing the size and westward penetration of the eastern Pacific dry zone, resulting in changes to the diagonality of the SPCZ. Our record also captures a response to strong northern Hemisphere cooling. The 25-45 ka record is bounded by large hiatuses (inferred dry conditions) coincident with cold Heinrich Stadials (HS) 2 and 5, while HS3 and HS4 are captured as distinct reductions in speleothem growth rate and proxy evidence for declining rainfall. This is consistent with a counter-clockwise rotation of the SPCZ during Northern cooling, supporting our proposed mechanism. Interestingly, our record also captures several other (non-Heinrich) cooling events, including a strong 500-year dry interval at 26ka that is seen in Chinese and Brazilian speleothems and coincides with a strong cooling over Asia (inferred from Greenland dust records). We note the (possibly coincidental) timing between this event and the Oruanui super-eruption at 25.6 ka.

  20. Simulated sensitivity of African terrestrial ecosystem photosynthesis to rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length (United States)

    Guan, Kaiyu; Good, Stephen P.; Caylor, Kelly K.; Medvigy, David; Pan, Ming; Wood, Eric F.; Sato, Hisashi; Biasutti, Michela; Chen, Min; Ahlström, Anders; Xu, Xiangtao


    There is growing evidence of ongoing changes in the statistics of intra-seasonal rainfall variability over large parts of the world. Changes in annual total rainfall may arise from shifts, either singly or in a combination, of distinctive intra-seasonal characteristics -i.e. rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, and rainfall seasonality. Understanding how various ecosystems respond to the changes in intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics is critical for predictions of future biome shifts and ecosystem services under climate change, especially for arid and semi-arid ecosystems. Here, we use an advanced dynamic vegetation model (SEIB-DGVM) coupled with a stochastic rainfall/weather simulator to answer the following question: how does the productivity of ecosystems respond to a given percentage change in the total seasonal rainfall that is realized by varying only one of the three rainfall characteristics (rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length)? We conducted ensemble simulations for continental Africa for a realistic range of changes (-20% ~ +20%) in total rainfall amount. We find that the simulated ecosystem productivity (measured by gross primary production, GPP) shows distinctive responses to the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics. Specifically, increase in rainfall frequency can lead to 28% more GPP increase than the same percentage increase in rainfall intensity; in tropical woodlands, GPP sensitivity to changes in rainy season length is ~4 times larger than to the same percentage changes in rainfall frequency or intensity. In contrast, shifts in the simulated biome distribution are much less sensitive to intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics than they are to total rainfall amount. Our results reveal three major distinctive productivity responses to seasonal rainfall variability—‘chronic water stress’, ‘acute water stress’ and ‘minimum water stress’ - which are respectively associated with three broad spatial patterns of

  1. The response of tropical rainforests to drought-lessons from recent research and future prospects. (United States)

    Bonal, Damien; Burban, Benoit; Stahl, Clément; Wagner, Fabien; Hérault, Bruno

    We review the recent findings on the influence of drought on tree mortality, growth or ecosystem functioning in tropical rainforests. Drought plays a major role in shaping tropical rainforests and the response mechanisms are highly diverse and complex. The numerous gaps identified here require the international scientific community to combine efforts in order to conduct comprehensive studies in tropical rainforests on the three continents. These results are essential to simulate the future of these ecosystems under diverse climate scenarios and to predict the future of the global earth carbon balance. Tropical rainforest ecosystems are characterized by high annual rainfall. Nevertheless, rainfall regularly fluctuates during the year and seasonal soil droughts do occur. Over the past decades, a number of extreme droughts have hit tropical rainforests, not only in Amazonia but also in Asia and Africa. The influence of drought events on tree mortality and growth or on ecosystem functioning (carbon and water fluxes) in tropical rainforest ecosystems has been studied intensively, but the response mechanisms are complex. Herein, we review the recent findings related to the response of tropical forest ecosystems to seasonal and extreme droughts and the current knowledge about the future of these ecosystems. This review emphasizes the progress made over recent years and the importance of the studies conducted under extreme drought conditions or in through-fall exclusion experiments in understanding the response of these ecosystems. It also points to the great diversity and complexity of the response of tropical rainforest ecosystems to drought. The numerous gaps identified here require the international scientific community to combine efforts in order to conduct comprehensive studies in tropical forest regions. These results are essential to simulate the future of these ecosystems under diverse climate scenarios and to predict the future of the global earth carbon balance.

  2. Rainfall and Development of Zika Virus

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Nov 1, 2017 ... between rainfall and incidence of arbovirus disease such as dengue is well demonstrated (2). For Zika virus an infection, a similar observation can be expected. A recent report from Thailand can also show the expected pattern of the prevalence of Zika virus infection in the areas with high rainfall (3).

  3. Community-based management induces rapid recovery of a high-value tropical freshwater fishery (United States)

    Campos-Silva, João Vitor; Peres, Carlos A.


    Tropical wetlands are highly threatened socio-ecological systems, where local communities rely heavily on aquatic animal protein, such as fish, to meet food security. Here, we quantify how a ‘win-win’ community-based resource management program induced stock recovery of the world’s largest scaled freshwater fish (Arapaima gigas), providing both food and income. We analyzed stock assessment data over eight years and examined the effects of protected areas, community-based management, and landscape and limnological variables across 83 oxbow lakes monitored along a ~500-km section of the Juruá River of Western Brazilian Amazonia. Patterns of community management explained 71.8% of the variation in arapaima population sizes. Annual population counts showed that protected lakes on average contained 304.8 (±332.5) arapaimas, compared to only 9.2 (±9.8) in open-access lakes. Protected lakes have become analogous to a high-interest savings account, ensuring an average annual revenue of US$10,601 per community and US$1046.6 per household, greatly improving socioeconomic welfare. Arapaima management is a superb window of opportunity in harmonizing the co-delivery of sustainable resource management and poverty alleviation. We show that arapaima management deserves greater attention from policy makers across Amazonian countries, and highlight the need to include local stakeholders in conservation planning of Amazonian floodplains.

  4. Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes (United States)

    Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro


    Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

  5. Synchronous fire activity in the tropical high Andes: an indication of regional climate forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roman-Cuesta, R.M.; Carmona-Moreno, C.; Lizcano, G.; New, M.; Silman, M.R.; Knoke, T.; Malhi, Y.; Oliveras Menor, I.; Asbjornsen, H.; Vuille, M.


    Global climate models suggest enhanced warming of the tropical mid and upper troposphere, with larger temperature rise rates at higher elevations. Changes in fire activity are amongst the most significant ecological consequences of rising temperatures and changing hydrological properties in

  6. Species biogeography predicts drought responses in a seasonally dry tropical forest (United States)

    Schwartz, N.; Powers, J. S.; Vargas, G.; Xu, X.; Smith, C. M.; Brodribb, T.; Werden, L. K.; Becknell, J.; Medvigy, D.


    The timing, distribution, and amount of rainfall in the seasonal tropics have shifted in recent years, with consequences for seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF). SDTF are sensitive to changing rainfall regimes and drought conditions, but sensitivity to drought varies substantially across species. One potential explanation of species differences is that species that experience dry conditions more frequently throughout their range will be better able to cope with drought than species from wetter climates, because species from drier climates will be better adapted to drought. An El-Niño induced drought in 2015 presented an opportunity to assess species-level differences in mortality in SDTF, and to ask whether the ranges of rainfall conditions species experience and the average rainfall regimes in species' ranges predict differences in mortality rates in Costa Rican SDTF. We used field plot data from northwest Costa Rica to determine species' level mortality rates. Mortality rates ranged substantially across species, with some species having no dead individuals to as high as 50% mortality. To quantify rainfall conditions across species' ranges, we used species occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and rainfall data from the Chelsa climate dataset. We found that while the average and range of mean annual rainfall across species ranges did not predict drought-induced mortality in the field plots, across-range averages of the seasonality index, a measure of rainfall seasonality, was strongly correlated with species-level drought mortality (r = -0.62, p < 0.05), with species from more strongly seasonal climates experiencing less severe drought mortality. Furthermore, we found that the seasonality index was a stronger predictor of mortality than any individual functional trait we considered. This result shows that species' biogeography may be an important factor for how species will respond to future drought, and may be a more integrative

  7. Abiotic and biotic determinants of leaf carbon exchange capacity from tropical to high boreal biomes (United States)

    Smith, N. G.; Dukes, J. S.


    Photosynthesis and respiration on land represent the two largest fluxes of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and the Earth's surface. As such, the Earth System Models that are used to project climate change are high sensitive to these processes. Studies have found that much of this uncertainty is due to the formulation and parameterization of plant photosynthetic and respiratory capacity. Here, we quantified the abiotic and biotic factors that determine photosynthetic and respiratory capacity at large spatial scales. Specifically, we measured the maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax), the maximum rate of Ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate regeneration (Jmax), and leaf dark respiration (Rd) in >600 individuals of 98 plant species from the tropical to high boreal biomes of Northern and Central America. We also measured a bevy of covariates including plant functional type, leaf nitrogen content, short- and long-term climate, leaf water potential, plant size, and leaf mass per area. We found that plant functional type and leaf nitrogen content were the primary determinants of Vcmax, Jmax, and Rd. Mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation were not significant predictors of these rates. However, short-term climatic variables, specifically soil moisture and air temperature over the previous 25 days, were significant predictors and indicated that heat and soil moisture deficits combine to reduce photosynthetic capacity and increase respiratory capacity. Finally, these data were used as a model benchmarking tool for the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM 4.5). The benchmarking analyses determined errors in the leaf nitrogen allocation scheme of CLM 4.5. Under high leaf nitrogen levels within a plant type the model overestimated Vcmax and Jmax. This result suggested that plants were altering their nitrogen allocation patterns when leaf nitrogen levels were high, an effect that was not being captured by the model. These data, taken with models in mind

  8. Rainfall simulation in education (United States)

    Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia


    Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

  9. [Key to chironomid pupal exuviae (Diptera: Chironomidae) of tropical high Andean streams]. (United States)

    Pratt, Narcís; González-Trujillo, Juan David; Ospina-Torres, Rodulfo


    The Chironomidae is a cosmopolitan family of Nematoceran flies with more than 20,000 species described. However the diversity of genera and species of the family in the Andean region beyond the 2,000 m.a.s.l are scarcely known. We conducted faunal surveys and biomonitoring research in different streams of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru from May 2005 to October 2011. Based on specimens collections, a taxonomic key was developed to identify pupae and pupal exuviae of 46 genera of midges (Diptera, Chironomidae) collected from streams at high altitude areas on the Andean tropical mountains. We included illustrations and brief taxonomic descriptions for all genera, of which several ones have not yet been formally described; in this latter case we used the nomenclature of Roback & Coffman (1983). For two genera, Cricotopus and Genus 1, keys to the most com- mon morphospecies were provided. Results showed that in this area the chironomid assemblages are dominated by the members of the subfamily Orthocladiinae (22 genera) followed by the Chironominae (13). Six genera of Tanypodinae were identified, while only three and two genera were present from subfamilies Podonominae and Diamesinae. This key may be very useful for both studies about drift in streams, and for biomonitoring purposes.

  10. Low Functional β-Diversity Despite High Taxonomic β-Diversity among Tropical Estuarine Fish Communities (United States)

    Villéger, Sébastien; Miranda, Julia Ramos; Hernandez, Domingo Flores; Mouillot, David


    The concept of β-diversity, defined as dissimilarity among communities, has been widely used to investigate biodiversity patterns and community assembly rules. However, in ecosystems with high taxonomic β-diversity, due to marked environmental gradients, the level of functional β-diversity among communities is largely overlooked while it may reveal processes shaping community structure. Here, decomposing biodiversity indices into α (local) and γ (regional) components, we estimated taxonomic and functional β-diversity among tropical estuarine fish communities, through space and time. We found extremely low functional β-diversity values among fish communities (diversities, α and γ functional diversities were very close to the minimal value. These patterns were caused by two dominant functional groups which maintained a similar functional structure over space and time, despite the strong dissimilarity in taxonomic structure along environmental gradients. Our findings suggest that taxonomic and functional β-diversity deserve to be quantified simultaneously since these two facets can show contrasting patterns and the differences can in turn shed light on community assembly rules. PMID:22792395

  11. Persea schiedeana: A High Oil “Cinderella Species” Fruit with Potential for Tropical Agroforestry Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jay Bost


    Full Text Available Persea schiedeana, a close relative of avocado (Persea americana, is an important part of agroforestry systems and diets in parts of Mesoamerica, particularly in the coffee growing areas of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala, where it is known as chinene, coyo, and yas. Little research attention has been given to this species, other than as a rootstock for avocado. Research carried out in six villages composing the Comité de Recursos Naturales de la Chinantla Alta (CORENCHI in Oaxaca, Mexico shows that Persea schiedeana has potential as a supplement to avocado production in subsistence systems and as a potential oil crop in more market oriented agroforestry systems. This survey of Persea schiedeana in the Chinantla area reports on the ethnoecology and management of chinene, as well as on the morphological diversity of the fruit in the area. High morphological diversity for fruit characters was noted and it is suggested that artificial selection has occurred and been modestly successful for desired fruit characters. Superior fruiting trees, identified during village level “chinene fairs” were targeted for vegetative propagation as part of a participatory domestication project. Such superior genotypes hold potential for addressing food security and creating marketable products in tropical areas around the globe.

  12. Tropical cyclone turbulent mixing as observed by autonomous oceanic profilers with the high repetition rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranowski, D B; Malinowski, S P; Flatau, P J


    Changes in the ocean mixed layer caused by passage of two consecutive typhoons in the Western Pacific are presented. Ocean profiles were measured by a unique Argo float sampling the upper ocean in high repetition cycle with a period of about one day. It is shown that the typhoon passage coincides with cooling of the mixed layer and variations of its salinity. Independent data from satellite measurements of surface winds were used to set-up an and idealized numerical simulation of mixed layer evolution. Results, compared to Argo profiles, confirm known effect that cooling is a result of increased entrainment from the thermocline due to enhancement of turbulence in the upper ocean by the wind stress. Observed pattern of salinity changes in the mixed layer suggest important role of typhoon precipitation. Fast changes of the mixed layer in course of typhoon passage show that fast profiling (at least once a day) is crucial to study response of the upper ocean to tropical cyclone.

  13. Diversified Native Species Restoration for Recovery of Multiple Ecosystem Services in a Highly Disturbed Tropical Dry Forest Landscape of Southwestern Nicaragua (United States)

    Williams-Guillen, K.; Otterstrom, S.; Perla, C.


    Tropical dry forests have been reduced to a fraction of their original extent in the Neotropics due to conversion to agriculture and cattle pasture. While TDF can recover via natural regeneration, resulting forests are dominated by wind-dispersed pioneer species of limited value for frugivorous wildlife. Additionally, passive restoration can be perceived as "abandonment" resulting in neighbors casually invading property to rear livestock and extract timber. In 2007, the NGO Paso Pacífico initiated restoration in a highly degraded tropical dry forest landscape of southwestern Nicaragua; funded by an ex-ante carbon purchase, the project was designed to integrate multiple native tree species known to provide resources used by local wildlife. We restored roughly 400 hectares spanning a rainfall gradient from dry to transitional moist forest, using reforestation (planting 70 species of tree seedlings in degraded pastures on a 4x4 m grid, leaving occurring saplings) and assisted regeneration (clearing vines and competing vegetation from saplings in natural regeneration and strategically managing canopy cover). In just over seven years, mean carbon increased nearly threefold, from to 21.5±5.0 to 57.9±9.6 SE tonnes/ha. Current carbon stocks match those of 20-year-old forests in the area, accumulated in less than a decade. Stem density per 15-m radius plot decreased from 16.3±2.3 to 12.5±0.9 SE, while species richness increased from 3.9±0.4 to 18.4±1.4 SE. Alpha richness of woody stems across plots increased from 36 to 94 species, and over 20 tree species established as a result of natural dispersal and recruitment. We have observed sensitive species such as spider monkeys and parrots foraging in restoration areas. Managed reforestation is a highly effective method for rapidly restoring the functionality of multiple ecosystem services in degraded TDF, particularly when social and political realities force restoration to coexist with human productive activities

  14. Congo Basin rainfall climatology: can we believe the climate models? (United States)

    Washington, Richard; James, Rachel; Pearce, Helen; Pokam, Wilfried M; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran


    The Congo Basin is one of three key convective regions on the planet which, during the transition seasons, dominates global tropical rainfall. There is little agreement as to the distribution and quantity of rainfall across the basin with datasets differing by an order of magnitude in some seasons. The location of maximum rainfall is in the far eastern sector of the basin in some datasets but the far western edge of the basin in others during March to May. There is no consistent pattern to this rainfall distribution in satellite or model datasets. Resolving these differences is difficult without ground-based data. Moisture flux nevertheless emerges as a useful variable with which to study these differences. Climate models with weak (strong) or even divergent moisture flux over the basin are dry (wet). The paper suggests an approach, via a targeted field campaign, for generating useful climate information with which to confront rainfall products and climate models.

  15. Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the Accuracy of Tropical Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 Precipitation Data in Mid-High Latitudes of China (United States)

    Cai, Yancong; Jin, Changjie; Wang, Anzhi; Guan, Dexin; Wu, Jiabing; Yuan, Fenghui; Xu, Leilei


    Satellite-based precipitation data have contributed greatly to quantitatively forecasting precipitation, and provides a potential alternative source for precipitation data allowing researchers to better understand patterns of precipitation over ungauged basins. However, the absence of calibration satellite data creates considerable uncertainties for The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 product over high latitude areas beyond the TRMM satellites latitude band (38°NS). This study attempts to statistically assess TMPA V7 data over the region beyond 40°NS using data obtained from numerous weather stations in 1998–2012. Comparative analysis at three timescales (daily, monthly and annual scale) indicates that adoption of a monthly adjustment significantly improved correlation at a larger timescale increasing from 0.63 to 0.95; TMPA data always exhibits a slight overestimation that is most serious at a daily scale (the absolute bias is 103.54%). Moreover, the performance of TMPA data varies across all seasons. Generally, TMPA data performs best in summer, but worst in winter, which is likely to be associated with the effects of snow/ice-covered surfaces and shortcomings of precipitation retrieval algorithms. Temporal and spatial analysis of accuracy indices suggest that the performance of TMPA data has gradually improved and has benefited from upgrades; the data are more reliable in humid areas than in arid regions. Special attention should be paid to its application in arid areas and in winter with poor scores of accuracy indices. Also, it is clear that the calibration can significantly improve precipitation estimates, the overestimation by TMPA in TRMM-covered area is about a third as much as that in no-TRMM area for monthly and annual precipitation. The systematic evaluation of TMPA over mid-high latitudes provides a broader understanding of satellite-based precipitation estimates, and these data are

  16. Spatio-temporal analysis of the accuracy of tropical multisatellite precipitation analysis 3B42 precipitation data in mid-high latitudes of China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yancong Cai

    Full Text Available Satellite-based precipitation data have contributed greatly to quantitatively forecasting precipitation, and provides a potential alternative source for precipitation data allowing researchers to better understand patterns of precipitation over ungauged basins. However, the absence of calibration satellite data creates considerable uncertainties for The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA 3B42 product over high latitude areas beyond the TRMM satellites latitude band (38°NS. This study attempts to statistically assess TMPA V7 data over the region beyond 40°NS using data obtained from numerous weather stations in 1998-2012. Comparative analysis at three timescales (daily, monthly and annual scale indicates that adoption of a monthly adjustment significantly improved correlation at a larger timescale increasing from 0.63 to 0.95; TMPA data always exhibits a slight overestimation that is most serious at a daily scale (the absolute bias is 103.54%. Moreover, the performance of TMPA data varies across all seasons. Generally, TMPA data performs best in summer, but worst in winter, which is likely to be associated with the effects of snow/ice-covered surfaces and shortcomings of precipitation retrieval algorithms. Temporal and spatial analysis of accuracy indices suggest that the performance of TMPA data has gradually improved and has benefited from upgrades; the data are more reliable in humid areas than in arid regions. Special attention should be paid to its application in arid areas and in winter with poor scores of accuracy indices. Also, it is clear that the calibration can significantly improve precipitation estimates, the overestimation by TMPA in TRMM-covered area is about a third as much as that in no-TRMM area for monthly and annual precipitation. The systematic evaluation of TMPA over mid-high latitudes provides a broader understanding of satellite-based precipitation estimates, and these

  17. The Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall Extremes (United States)

    Devineni, N.; Xi, C.; Lall, U.; Rahill-Marier, B.


    Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (upto 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. A clear understanding of the space-time rainfall patterns for events or for a season will enable in assessing the spatial distribution of areas likely to have a high/low inundation potential for each type of rainfall forcing. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances. We also investigate the connection of persistent rainfall events at different latitudinal bands to large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO. Finally, we present the scaling phenomena of contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. This can be used for spatially distributed flood risk assessment conditional on a particular rainfall scenario. Statistical models for spatio-temporal loss simulation including model uncertainty to support regional and portfolio analysis can be developed.

  18. Does the GPM mission improve the systematic error component in satellite rainfall estimates over TRMM? An evaluation at a pan-India scale (United States)

    Beria, Harsh; Nanda, Trushnamayee; Singh Bisht, Deepak; Chatterjee, Chandranath


    The last couple of decades have seen the outburst of a number of satellite-based precipitation products with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) as the most widely used for hydrologic applications. Transition of TRMM into the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) promises enhanced spatio-temporal resolution along with upgrades to sensors and rainfall estimation techniques. The dependence of systematic error components in rainfall estimates of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and their variation with climatology and topography, was evaluated over 86 basins in India for year 2014 and compared with the corresponding (2014) and retrospective (1998-2013) TRMM estimates. IMERG outperformed TRMM for all rainfall intensities across a majority of Indian basins, with significant improvement in low rainfall estimates showing smaller negative biases in 75 out of 86 basins. Low rainfall estimates in TRMM showed a systematic dependence on basin climatology, with significant overprediction in semi-arid basins, which gradually improved in the higher rainfall basins. Medium and high rainfall estimates of TRMM exhibited a strong dependence on basin topography, with declining skill in higher elevation basins. The systematic dependence of error components on basin climatology and topography was reduced in IMERG, especially in terms of topography. Rainfall-runoff modeling using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over two flood-prone basins (Mahanadi and Wainganga) revealed that improvement in rainfall estimates in IMERG did not translate into improvement in runoff simulations. More studies are required over basins in different hydroclimatic zones to evaluate the hydrologic significance of IMERG.

  19. Does the GPM mission improve the systematic error component in satellite rainfall estimates over TRMM? An evaluation at a pan-India scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Beria


    Full Text Available The last couple of decades have seen the outburst of a number of satellite-based precipitation products with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM as the most widely used for hydrologic applications. Transition of TRMM into the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM promises enhanced spatio-temporal resolution along with upgrades to sensors and rainfall estimation techniques. The dependence of systematic error components in rainfall estimates of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG, and their variation with climatology and topography, was evaluated over 86 basins in India for year 2014 and compared with the corresponding (2014 and retrospective (1998–2013 TRMM estimates. IMERG outperformed TRMM for all rainfall intensities across a majority of Indian basins, with significant improvement in low rainfall estimates showing smaller negative biases in 75 out of 86 basins. Low rainfall estimates in TRMM showed a systematic dependence on basin climatology, with significant overprediction in semi-arid basins, which gradually improved in the higher rainfall basins. Medium and high rainfall estimates of TRMM exhibited a strong dependence on basin topography, with declining skill in higher elevation basins. The systematic dependence of error components on basin climatology and topography was reduced in IMERG, especially in terms of topography. Rainfall-runoff modeling using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC model over two flood-prone basins (Mahanadi and Wainganga revealed that improvement in rainfall estimates in IMERG did not translate into improvement in runoff simulations. More studies are required over basins in different hydroclimatic zones to evaluate the hydrologic significance of IMERG.

  20. Interannual Rainfall Variability in North-East Brazil: Observation and Model Simulation (United States)

    Harzallah, A.; Rocha de Aragão, J. O.; Sadourny, R.


    The relationship between interannual variability of rainfall in north-east Brazil and tropical sea-surface temperature is studied using observations and model simulations. The simulated precipitation is the average of seven independent realizations performed using the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique atmospheric general model forced by the 1970-1988 observed sea-surface temperature. The model reproduces very well the rainfall anomalies (correlation of 091 between observed and modelled anomalies). The study confirms that precipitation in north-east Brazil is highly correlated to the sea-surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Using the singular value decomposition method, we find that Nordeste rainfall is modulated by two independent oscillations, both governed by the Atlantic dipole, but one involving only the Pacific, the other one having a period of about 10 years. Correlations between precipitation in north-east Brazil during February-May and the sea-surface temperature 6 months earlier indicate that both modes are essential to estimate the quality of the rainy season.

  1. An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Zeng, Ning [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States)


    Rainfall variability over the Amazon basin has often been linked to variations in Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), and in particular, to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, only a fraction of Amazon rainfall variability can be explained by ENSO. Building upon the recent work of Zeng (Environ Res Lett 3:014002, 2008), here we provide further evidence for an influence on Amazon rainfall from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The strength of the North Atlantic influence is found to be comparable to the better-known Pacific ENSO connection. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean also shows some influence during the wet-to-dry season transition period. The Atlantic influence is through changes in the north-south divergent circulation and the movement of the ITCZ following warm SST. Therefore, it is strongest in the southern part of the Amazon basin during the Amazon's dry season (July-October). In contrast, the ENSO related teleconnection is through anomalous east-west Walker circulation with largely concentrated in the eastern (lower) Amazon. This ENSO connection is seasonally locked to boreal winter. A complication due to the influence of ENSO on Atlantic SST causes an apparent North Atlantic SST lag of Amazon rainfall. Removing ENSO from North Atlantic SST via linear regression resolves this causality problem in that the residual Atlantic variability correlates well and is in phase with the Amazon rainfall. A strong Atlantic influence during boreal summer and autumn is particularly significant in terms of the impact on the hydro-ecosystem which is most vulnerable during the dry season, as highlighted by the severe 2005 Amazon drought. Such findings have implications for both seasonal-interannual climate prediction and understanding the longer-term changes of the Amazon rainforest. (orig.)

  2. Defences against ammonia toxicity in tropical air-breathing fishes exposed to high concentrations of environmental ammonia: a review. (United States)

    Ip, Y K; Chew, S F; Wilson, J M; Randall, D J


    In the tropics, air-breathing fishes can be exposed to environmental ammonia when stranded in puddles of water during the dry season, during a stay inside a burrow, or after agricultural fertilization. At low concentrations of environmental ammonia, NH(3) excretion is impeded, as in aerial exposure, leading to the accumulation of endogenous ammonia. At high concentrations of environmental ammonia, which results in a reversed NH(3) partial pressure gradient (DeltaP(NH3)), there is retention of endogenous ammonia and uptake of exogenous ammonia. In this review, several tropical air-breathing fishes (giant mudskipper, African catfish, oriental weatherloach, swamp eel, four-eyed sleeper, abehaze and slender African lungfish), which can tolerate high environmental ammonia exposure, are used as examples to demonstrate how eight different adaptations can be involved in defence against ammonia toxicity. Four of these adaptations deal with ammonia toxicity at branchial and/or epithelial surfaces: (1) active excretion of NH(4)(+); (2) lowering of environmental pH; (3) low NH(3) permeability of epithelial surfaces; and (4) volatilization of NH(3), while another four adaptations ameliorate ammonia toxicity at the cellular and subcellular levels: (5) high tolerance of ammonia at the cellular and subcellular levels; (6) reduction in ammonia production; (7) glutamine synthesis; and (8) urea synthesis. The responses of tropical air-breathing fishes to high environmental ammonia are determined apparently by behavioural adaptations and the nature of their natural environments.

  3. Spatial Heterogeneity of Water Quality in a Highly Degraded Tropical Freshwater Ecosystem (United States)

    Zambrano, Luis; Contreras, Victoria; Mazari-Hiriart, Marisa; Zarco-Arista, Alba E.


    Awareness of environmental heterogeneity in ecosystems is critical for management and conservation. We used the Xochimilco freshwater system to describe the relationship between heterogeneity and human activities. This tropical aquatic ecosystem south of Mexico City is comprised of a network of interconnected canals and lakes that are influenced by agricultural and urban activities. Environmental heterogeneity was characterized by spatially extensive surveys within four regions of Xochimilco during rainy and dry seasons over 2 years. These surveys revealed a heterogeneous system that was shallow (1.1 m, SD = 0.4 ), warm (17°C, SD = 2.9), well oxygenated (5.0 mg l-1, SD = 3), turbid (45.7 NTU SD = 26.96), and extremely nutrient-rich (NO3-N = 15.9 mg l-1, SD=13.7; NH4-N = 2.88 mg l-1, SD = 4.24; and PO4-P = 8.3 mg l-1, SD = 2.4). Most of the variables were not significantly different between years, but did differ between seasons, suggesting a dynamic system within a span of a year but with a high resilience over longer periods of time. Maps were produced using interpolations to describe distributions of all variables. There was no correlation between individual variables and land use. Consequently, we searched for relationships using all variables together by generating a combined water quality index. Significant differences in the index were apparent among the four regions. Index values also differed within individual region and individual water bodies (e.g., within canals), indicating that Xochimilco has high local heterogeneity. Using this index on a map helped to relate water quality to human activities and provides a simple and clear tool for managers and policymakers.

  4. Tropical parabiotic ants: Highly unusual cuticular substances and low interspecific discrimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schmitt Thomas


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Associations between animal species require that at least one of the species recognizes its partner. Parabioses are associations of two ant species which co-inhabit the same nest. Ants usually possess an elaborate nestmate recognition system, which is based on cuticular hydrocarbons and allows them to distinguish nestmates from non-nestmates through quantitative or qualitative differences in the hydrocarbon composition. Hence, living in a parabiotic association probably necessitates changes of the nestmate recognition system in both species, since heterospecific ants have to be accepted as nestmates. Results In the present study we report highly unusual cuticular profiles in the parabiotic species Crematogaster modiglianii and Camponotus rufifemur from the tropical rainforest of Borneo. The cuticle of both species is covered by a set of steroids, which are highly unusual surface compounds. They also occur in the Dufour gland of Crematogaster modiglianii in high quantities. The composition of these steroids differed between colonies but was highly similar among the two species of a parabiotic nest. In contrast, hydrocarbon composition of Cr. modiglianii and Ca. rufifemur differed strongly and only overlapped in three regularly occurring and three trace compounds. The hydrocarbon profile of Camponotus rufifemur consisted almost exclusively of methyl-branched alkenes of unusually high chain lengths (up to C49. This species occurred in two sympatric, chemically distinct varieties with almost no hydrocarbons in common. Cr. modiglianii discriminated between these two varieties. It only tolerated workers of the Ca. rufifemur variety it was associated with, but attacked the respective others. However, Cr. modiglianii did not distinguish its own Ca. rufifemur partner from allocolonial Ca. rufifemur workers of the same variety. Conclusion We conclude that there is a mutual substance transfer between Cr. modiglianii and Ca. rufifemur

  5. Tree Carbohydrate Dynamics Across a Rainfall Gradient in Panama During the 2016 ENSO (United States)

    Dickman, L. T.; Xu, C.; Behar, H.; McDowell, N.


    Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) provide a measure of the carbon supply available to support respiration, growth, and defense. Support for a role of carbon starvation - or depletion of NSC stores - in drought induced tree mortality is varied without consensus for the tropics. The 2016 ENSO drought provided a unique opportunity to capture drought impacts on tropical forest carbohydrate dynamics. To quantify these impacts, we collected monthly NSC samples across a rainfall gradient in Panama for the duration of the ENSO. We observed high variability in foliar NSC among species within sites. Foliage contained very little starch, indicating that total NSC dynamics are driven by soluble sugars. Foliar NSC depletion did not progress with drought duration as predicted, but showed little variation over course of the ENSO. Foliar NSC did, however, increase with rainfall, suggesting NSC depletion may occur with longer-term drought. These results suggest that, while short-term droughts like the 2016 ENSO may not have a significant impact on carbon dynamics, we may observe greater impacts as drought progresses over longer timescales. These results will be used to evaluate whether the current implementation of carbon starvation in climate models are capturing observed trends in tropical forest carbon allocation and mortality, and to tune model parameters for improved predictive capability.

  6. Quantitative Assessment on Anthropogenic Contributions to the Rainfall Extremes Associated with Typhoon Morakot (2009) (United States)

    Chen, C. T.; Lo, S. H.; Wang, C. C.; Tsuboki, K.


    More than 2000 mm rainfall occurred over southern Taiwan when a category 1 Typhoon Morakot pass through Taiwan in early August 2009. Entire village and hundred of people were buried by massive mudslides induced by record-breaking precipitation. Whether the past anthropogenic warming played a significant role in such extreme event remained very controversial. On one hand, people argue it's nearly impossible to attribute an individual extreme event to global warming. On the other hand, the increase of heavy rainfall is consistent with the expected effects of climate change on tropical cyclone. To diagnose possible anthropogenic contributions to the odds of such heavy rainfall associated with Typhoon Morakot, we adapt an existing probabilistic event attribution framework to simulate a `world that was' and compare it with an alternative condition, 'world that might have been' that removed the historical anthropogenic drivers of climate. One limitation for applying such approach to high-impact weather system is that it will require models capable of capturing the essential processes lead to the studied extremes. Using a cloud system resolving model that can properly simulate the complicated interactions between tropical cyclone, large-scale background, topography, we first perform the ensemble `world that was' simulations using high resolution ECMWF YOTC analysis. We then re-simulate, having adjusted the analysis to `world that might have been conditions' by removing the regional atmospheric and oceanic forcing due to human influences estimated from the CMIP5 model ensemble mean conditions between all forcing and natural forcing only historical runs. Thus our findings are highly conditional on the driving analysis and adjustments therein, but the setup allows us to elucidate possible contribution of anthropogenic forcing to changes in the likelihood of heavy rainfall associated Typhoon Morakot in early August 2009.

  7. Long term picoplankton dynamics in a warm-monomictic, tropical high altitude lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfonso LUGO VÁZQUEZ


    Full Text Available Long term analyses of the microbial loop, centred on the picoplankton dynamics, were carried out over a five-year (1998 to 2002 period in Lake Alchichica (Puebla, Mexico, a high altitude tropical athalassohaline lake. The hydrodynamics of the lake followed a warm-monomictic pattern with mixing at a minimum temperature during the early dry season while the stratification was pronounced in the late dry season and throughout the rainy season; anoxic conditions in the hypolimnion lasted <9 months. The annual mean concentrations of chlorophyll-a were below 4 μg L-1 in 1998, 1999 and 2001, however, 6.1 and 5.2 μg L-1 in 2000 and 2002, respectively. Total picoplankton, TPP, displayed a temporal pattern that followed the mixing-stratification cycle. The highest TPP values (the whole water column ≥5×106 cells mL-1 were found during mixing and early stratification (January-March. The minimum numbers were present during late stratification (October-November. The maximum TPP numbers were observed within the layer 0-20 m, which corresponded to the epilimnion during the stratification period. Neither the thermocline nor the deep chlorophyll maximum showed an elevated TPP concentration. In the hypolimnion, TPP numbers were low (frequently <1×106 cells mL-1 apparently as a result of the long period of anoxia. Notwithstanding autotrophic picoplankton (APP contributed even ≥30% of TPP (2001 to 2002; no significant correlation was found between TPP and chlorophyll-a.

  8. Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia (United States)

    Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.


    Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as

  9. Effects of Rainfall Intensity and Slope Angle on Splash Erosion in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Soil erosion is a critical global environmental problem, especially in the developing countries including Nigeria. In the humid and sub-humid tropics, splash erosion resulting from intense rainfall and slope degree pose severe land degradation problems. The objective of this study is to assess the effects of some rainfall ...

  10. First-year evaluation of GPM rainfall over the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rios Gaona, M.F.; Overeem, A.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.


    The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is the successor to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), which orbited Earth for ~17 years. With Core Observatory launched on 27 February 2014, GPM offers global precipitation estimates between 60°N and 60°S at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution

  11. Extension of the TAMSAT satellite-based rainfall monitoring over Africa and from 1983 to present


    Tarnavsky, Elena; Grimes, David; Maidment, Ross; Black, Emily; Allan, Richard; Stringer, Marc; Chadwick, Robin; Kayitakire, Francois


    Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite Data and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainfall monitoring products have been extended to provide spatially contiguous rainfall estimates across Africa. This has been achieved through a new, climatology-based calibration, which varies in both space and time. As a result, cumulative estimates of rainfall are now issued at the end of each 10-day period (dekad) at 4-km spatial resolution with pan-African coverage. The utility of the produ...

  12. Regions Subject to Rainfall Oscillation in the 5–10 Year Band

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Louis Pinault


    Full Text Available The decadal oscillation of rainfall in Europe that has been observed since the end of the 20th century is a phenomenon well known to climatologists. Consequences are considerable because the succession of wet or dry years produces floods or, inversely, droughts. Moreover, much research has tried to answer the question about the possible link between the frequency and the intensity of extra-tropical cyclones, which are particularly devastating, and global warming. This work aims at providing an exhaustive description of the rainfall oscillation in the 5–10 year band during one century on a planetary scale. It is shown that the rainfall oscillation results from baroclinic instabilities over the oceans. For that, a joint analysis of the amplitude and the phase of sea surface temperature anomalies and rainfall anomalies is performed, which discloses the mechanisms leading to the alternation of high and low atmospheric pressure systems. For a prospective purpose, some milestones are suggested on a possible link with very long-period Rossby waves in the oceans.

  13. Mapping tropical forest trees using high-resolution aerial digital photographs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garzon-Lopez, C.X.; Bohlman, S.A.; Olff, H.; Jansen, P.A.


    The spatial arrangement of tree species is a key aspect of community ecology. Because tree species in tropical forests occur at low densities, it is logistically challenging to measure distributions across large areas. In this study, we evaluated the potential use of canopy tree crown maps, derived

  14. Observing and Modelling the HighWater Level from Satellite Radar Altimetry During Tropical Cyclones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deng, Xiaoli; Gharineiat, Zahra; Andersen, Ole Baltazar


    This paper investigates the capability of observing tropical cyclones using satellite radar altimetry. Two representative cyclones Yasi (February 2011) and Larry (March 2006) in the northeast Australian coastal area are selected based also on available tide gauge sea level measurements. It is sho...

  15. High resolution model projections of tropical cyclone landfall over southern Africa under enhanced anthropogenic forcing

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Malherbe, J


    Full Text Available , no such change has been noted when all closed warm-core low pressure systems are considered. Several studies have through the use of coupled global circulation models globally reported a projected decrease in the number of tropical cyclones expected under...

  16. High primary production contrasts with intense carbon emission in a eutrophic tropical reservoir

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida, Rafael M.; Nóbrega, Gabriel N.; Junger, Pedro C.; Figueiredo, Aline V.; Andrade, Anízio S.; Moura, de Caroline G.B.; Tonetta, Denise; Oliveira, Ernandes S.; Araújo, Fabiana; Rust, Felipe; Piñeiro-Guerra, Juan M.; Mendonça, Jurandir R.; Medeiros, Leonardo R.; Pinheiro, Lorena; Miranda, Marcela; Costa, Mariana R.A.; Melo, Michaela L.; Nobre, Regina L.G.; Benevides, Thiago; Roland, Fábio; Klein, de Jeroen; Barros, Nathan O.; Mendonça, Raquel; Becker, Vanessa; Huszar, Vera L.M.; Kosten, Sarian


    Recent studies from temperate lakes indicate that eutrophic systems tend to emit less carbon dioxide (CO2) and bury more organic carbon (OC) than oligotrophic ones, rendering them CO2 sinks in some cases. However, the scarcity of data from tropical systems is critical for a

  17. A power-driven increment borer for sampling high-density tropical wood

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krottenthaler, S.; Pitsch, P.; Helle, G.; Locosselli, G. M.; Ceccantini, G.; Altman, Jan; Svoboda, M.; Doležal, Jiří; Schleser, G.; Anhuf, D.


    Roč. 36, November (2015), s. 40-44 ISSN 1125-7865 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP504/12/1952; GA ČR(CZ) GA14-12262S Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : tropical dendrochronology * tree sampling methods * increment cores Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 2.107, year: 2015

  18. Consistent patterns of high alpha and low beta diversity in tropical parasitic and free-living protists. (United States)

    Lentendu, Guillaume; Mahé, Frédéric; Bass, David; Rueckert, Sonja; Stoeck, Thorsten; Dunthorn, Micah


    Tropical animals and plants are known to have high alpha diversity within forests, but low beta diversity between forests. By contrast, it is unknown whether microbes inhabiting the same ecosystems exhibit similar biogeographic patterns. To evaluate the biogeographies of tropical protists, we used metabarcoding data of species sampled in the soils of three lowland Neotropical rainforests. Taxa-area and distance-decay relationships for three of the dominant protist taxa and their subtaxa were estimated at both the OTU and phylogenetic levels, with presence-absence and abundance-based measures. These estimates were compared to null models. High local alpha and low regional beta diversity patterns were consistently found for both the parasitic Apicomplexa and the largely free-living Cercozoa and Ciliophora. Similar to animals and plants, the protists showed spatial structures between forests at the OTU and phylogenetic levels, and only at the phylogenetic level within forests. These results suggest that the biogeographies of macro- and micro-organismal eukaryotes in lowland Neotropical rainforests are partially structured by the same general processes. However, and unlike the animals and plants, the protist OTUs did not exhibit spatial structures within forests, which hinders our ability to estimate the local and regional diversity of protists in tropical forests. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Effect of monthly areal rainfall uncertainty on streamflow simulation (United States)

    Ndiritu, J. G.; Mkhize, N.


    Areal rainfall is mostly obtained from point rainfall measurements that are sparsely located and several studies have shown that this results in large areal rainfall uncertainties at the daily time step. However, water resources assessment is often carried out a monthly time step and streamflow simulation is usually an essential component of this assessment. This study set out to quantify monthly areal rainfall uncertainties and assess their effect on streamflow simulation. This was achieved by; i) quantifying areal rainfall uncertainties and using these to generate stochastic monthly areal rainfalls, and ii) finding out how the quality of monthly streamflow simulation and streamflow variability change if stochastic areal rainfalls are used instead of historic areal rainfalls. Tests on monthly rainfall uncertainty were carried out using data from two South African catchments while streamflow simulation was confined to one of them. A non-parametric model that had been applied at a daily time step was used for stochastic areal rainfall generation and the Pitman catchment model calibrated using the SCE-UA optimizer was used for streamflow simulation. 100 randomly-initialised calibration-validation runs using 100 stochastic areal rainfalls were compared with 100 runs obtained using the single historic areal rainfall series. By using 4 rain gauges alternately to obtain areal rainfall, the resulting differences in areal rainfall averaged to 20% of the mean monthly areal rainfall and rainfall uncertainty was therefore highly significant. Pitman model simulations obtained coefficient of efficiencies averaging 0.66 and 0.64 in calibration and validation using historic rainfalls while the respective values using stochastic areal rainfalls were 0.59 and 0.57. Average bias was less than 5% in all cases. The streamflow ranges using historic rainfalls averaged to 29% of the mean naturalised flow in calibration and validation and the respective average ranges using stochastic

  20. Rainfall: State of the Science (United States)

    Testik, Firat Y.; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

    Rainfall: State of the Science offers the most up-to-date knowledge on the fundamental and practical aspects of rainfall. Each chapter, self-contained and written by prominent scientists in their respective fields, provides three forms of information: fundamental principles, detailed overview of current knowledge and description of existing methods, and emerging techniques and future research directions. The book discusses • Rainfall microphysics: raindrop morphodynamics, interactions, size distribution, and evolution • Rainfall measurement and estimation: ground-based direct measurement (disdrometer and rain gauge), weather radar rainfall estimation, polarimetric radar rainfall estimation, and satellite rainfall estimation • Statistical analyses: intensity-duration-frequency curves, frequency analysis of extreme events, spatial analyses, simulation and disaggregation, ensemble approach for radar rainfall uncertainty, and uncertainty analysis of satellite rainfall products The book is tailored to be an indispensable reference for researchers, practitioners, and graduate students who study any aspect of rainfall or utilize rainfall information in various science and engineering disciplines.

  1. Role of dust direct radiative effect on the tropical rainbelt over Middle East and North Africa: A high resolution AGCM study

    KAUST Repository

    Bangalath, Hamza Kunhu; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.


    (AGCM),the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). Ensembles of Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP)-style simulations have been conducted with and without dust radiative impacts, to differentiate the influence of dust on the tropical

  2. Dynamic Hydrological Modeling in Drylands with TRMM Based Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Tarnavsky


    Full Text Available This paper introduces and evaluates DryMOD, a dynamic water balance model of the key hydrological process in drylands that is based on free, public-domain datasets. The rainfall model of DryMOD makes optimal use of spatially disaggregated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM datasets to simulate hourly rainfall intensities at a spatial resolution of 1-km. Regional-scale applications of the model in seasonal catchments in Tunisia and Senegal characterize runoff and soil moisture distribution and dynamics in response to varying rainfall data inputs and soil properties. The results highlight the need for hourly-based rainfall simulation and for correcting TRMM 3B42 rainfall intensities for the fractional cover of rainfall (FCR. Without FCR correction and disaggregation to 1 km, TRMM 3B42 based rainfall intensities are too low to generate surface runoff and to induce substantial changes to soil moisture storage. The outcomes from the sensitivity analysis show that topsoil porosity is the most important soil property for simulation of runoff and soil moisture. Thus, we demonstrate the benefit of hydrological investigations at a scale, for which reliable information on soil profile characteristics exists and which is sufficiently fine to account for the heterogeneities of these. Where such information is available, application of DryMOD can assist in the spatial and temporal planning of water harvesting according to runoff-generating areas and the runoff ratio, as well as in the optimization of agricultural activities based on realistic representation of soil moisture conditions.

  3. Radioactive pollution in rainfall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jemtland, R.


    Routine measurements of radioactivity in rainfall are carried out at the National Institute for Radiation Hygiene, Norway. The report discusses why the method of ion exchange was selected and gives details on how the measurements are performed

  4. Assessment of satellite rainfall products over the Andean plateau (United States)

    Satgé, Frédéric; Bonnet, Marie-Paule; Gosset, Marielle; Molina, Jorge; Hernan Yuque Lima, Wilson; Pillco Zolá, Ramiro; Timouk, Franck; Garnier, Jérémie


    Nine satellite rainfall estimations (SREs) were evaluated for the first time over the South American Andean plateau watershed by comparison with rain gauge data acquired between 2005 and 2007. The comparisons were carried out at the annual, monthly and daily time steps. All SREs reproduce the salient pattern of the annual rain field, with a marked north-south gradient and a lighter east-west gradient. However, the intensity of the gradient differs among SREs: it is well marked in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 (TMPA-3B42), Precipitation Estimation from remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) products, and it is smoothed out in the Climate prediction center MORPHing (CMORPH) products. Another interesting difference among products is the contrast in rainfall amounts between the water surfaces (Lake Titicaca) and the surrounding land. Some products (TMPA-3B42, PERSIANN and GSMaP) show a contradictory rainfall deficit over Lake Titicaca, which may be due to the emissivity contrast between the lake and the surrounding lands and warm rain cloud processes. An analysis differentiating coastal Lake Titicaca from inland pixels confirmed this trend. The raw or Real Time (RT) products have strong biases over the study region. These biases are strongly positive for PERSIANN (above 90%), moderately positive for TMPA-3B42 (28%), strongly negative for CMORPH (- 42%) and moderately negative for GSMaP (- 18%). The biases are associated with a deformation of the rain rate frequency distribution: GSMaP underestimates the proportion of rainfall events for all rain rates; CMORPH overestimates the proportion of rain rates below 2 mm day- 1; and the other products tend to overestimate the proportion of moderate to high rain rates. These biases are greatly reduced by the gauge adjustment in the TMPA-3B42, PERSIANN and CMORPH products, whereas a

  5. Summer monsoon rainfall variability over North East regions of India and its association with Eurasian snow, Atlantic Sea Surface temperature and Arctic Oscillation (United States)

    Prabhu, Amita; Oh, Jaiho; Kim, In-won; Kripalani, R. H.; Mitra, A. K.; Pandithurai, G.


    This observational study during the 29-year period from 1979 to 2007 evaluates the potential role of Eurasian snow in modulating the North East-Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall with a lead time of almost 6 months. This link is manifested by the changes in high-latitude atmospheric winter snow variability over Eurasia associated with Arctic Oscillation (AO). Excessive wintertime Eurasian snow leads to an anomalous cooling of the overlying atmosphere and is associated with the negative mode of AO, inducing a meridional wave-train descending over the tropical north Atlantic and is associated with cooling of this region. Once the cold anomalies are established over the tropical Atlantic, it persists up to the following summer leading to an anomalous zonal wave-train further inducing a descending branch over NE-India resulting in weak summer monsoon rainfall.

  6. Tropical Rainforests. (United States)

    Nigh, Ronald B.; Nations, James D.


    Presented is a summary of scientific knowledge about the rainforest environment, a tropical ecosystem in danger of extermination. Topics include the current state of tropical rainforests, the causes of rainforest destruction, and alternatives of rainforest destruction. (BT)

  7. Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro José Back


    Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

  8. Sensitivity of tropical cyclone simulations to microphysics parameterizations in WRF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reshmi Mohan, P.; Srinivas, C.V.; Bhaskaran, R.; Venkatraman, B.; Yesubabu, V.


    Tropical cyclones (TC) cause storm surge along coastal areas where these storms cross the coast. As major nuclear facilities are usually installed in coastal region, the surge predictions are highly important for DAE. The critical TC parameters needed in estimating storm surge are intensity (winds, central pressure and radius of maximum winds) and storm tracks. The predictions with numerical models are generally made by representing the clouds and precipitation processes using convective and microphysics parameterization. At high spatial resolutions (1-3Km) microphysics can act as cloud resolving NWP model to explicitly resolve the convective precipitation without using convection schemes. Recent simulation studies using WRF on severe weather phenomena such as thunderstorms and hurricanes indicated large sensitivity of predicted rainfall and hurricane tracks to microphysics due to variation in temperature and pressure gradients which generate winds that determine the storm track. In the present study the sensitivity of tropical cyclone tracks and intensity to different microphysics schemes has been conducted

  9. Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO2 world (United States)

    Couce, E.; Irvine, P. J.; Gregorie, L. J.; Ridgwell, A.; Hendy, E. J.


    Continued anthropogenic CO2 emissions are expected to impact tropical coral reefs by further raising sea surface temperatures (SST) and intensifying ocean acidification (OA). Although geoengineering by means of solar radiation management (SRM) may mitigate temperature increases, OA will persist, raising important questions regarding the impact of different stressor combinations. We apply statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models to project changes in shallow water tropical coral reef habitat as a single niche (without resolving biodiversity or community composition) under various representative concentration pathway and SRM scenarios, until 2070. We predict substantial reductions in habitat suitability centered on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool under net anthropogenic radiative forcing of ≥3.0 W/m2. The near-term dominant risk to coral reefs is increasing SSTs; below 3 W/m2 reasonably favorable conditions are maintained, even when achieved by SRM with persisting OA. "Optimal" mitigation occurs at 1.5 W/m2 because tropical SSTs overcool in a fully geoengineered (i.e., preindustrial global mean temperature) world.

  10. Diversity and Phenology of Wild Bees in a Highly Disturbed Tropical Dry Forest "Desierto de la Tatacoa", Huila-Colombia. (United States)

    Poveda-Coronel, C A; Riaño-Jiménez, D; Cure, J R


    Colombian tropical dry forest is considered the most endangered tropical biome due to anthropic activities. Desierto de la Tatacoa (DsT) is an example of high disturbed tropical dry forest which still maintains a high biodiversity. The objective of the study was to record the diversity and phenology of wild bees in this place by monthly sampling between December 2014 and December 2016 in a 9-km 2 area. During the study, there was a prolonged El Niño-Southern Oscillation period. Bees were collected by entomological nets, malaise traps, eugenol scent trapping, and nest traps. Shannon index was calculated to estimate diversity and Simpson index to determine dominance of a species. The effect of environmental conditions (wet and dry season) in richness and abundance was analyzed by paired T tests. A total of 3004 bee specimens were collected, belonging to 80 species from Apidae, Megachilidae, Halictidae, and Colletidae. Apidae was the most diverse. Shannon index value was 2.973 (discarding Apis mellifera Linnaeus 1758 data); thus, DsT can be considered as a zone of high wild bee diversity. Dry and rainy season showed differences in diversity (p < 0.05). Rainy season showed larger blooming periods and higher bee diversity than dry season. In both seasons, social species were dominant (e.g., A. mellifera or Trigona fulviventris Guérin 1844). Although DsT is a highly disturbed ecosystem, this study found it has the second highest number of genera and the fourth highest number of species reported in Colombia.

  11. The Impact of Amazonian Deforestation on Dry-Season Rainfall (United States)

    Negri, Andrew J.; Adler, Robert F.; Xu, Li-Ming; Surratt, Jason; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)


    Many modeling studies have concluded that widespread deforestation of Amazonia would lead to decreased rainfall. We analyze geosynchronous infrared satellite data with respect percent cloudiness, and analyze rain estimates from microwave sensors aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. We conclude that in the dry-season, when the effects of the surface are not overwhelmed by synoptic-scale weather disturbances, deep convective cloudiness, as well as rainfall occurrence, all increase over the deforested and non-forested (savanna) regions. This is in response to a local circulation initiated by the differential heating of the region's varying forestation. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of cloudiness reveals a shift toward afternoon hours in the deforested and savanna regions, compared to the forested regions. Analysis of 14 years of data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager data revealed that only in August did rainfall amounts increase over the deforested region.

  12. Effect of rainfall infiltration into unsaturated soil using soil column (United States)

    Ibrahim, A.; Mukhlisin, M.; Jaafar, O.


    Rainfall especially in tropical region caused infiltration to the soil slope. The infiltration may change pore water pressure or matric suction of the soil. The event of rainfall infiltration into soil is a complex mechanism. Therefore, the main objectives of this research paper is to study the influence of rainfall intensity and duration that changed pore water pressure to soil. There are two types of soils used in this study; forest soil and kaolin. Soil column apparatus is used for experiments. Rainfall were applied to the soil and result for 3, 6, 12, 24, 72, 120 and 168 hours were retrieved. Result shows that for the both types of soil, the negative pore water pressures were increased during wetting process and gradually decreased towards drying process. The results also show that pore water pressure at top part was increased greatly as the wetting process started compared to the middle and bottom part of the column.

  13. Observations of cloud and rainfall enhancement over irrigated agriculture in an arid environment (United States)

    Garcia-Carreras, Luis; Marsham, John H.; Spracklen, Dominick V.


    The impact of irrigated agriculture on clouds and rainfall remains uncertain, particularly in less studied arid regions. Irrigated crops account for 20% of global cropland area, and non-renewable groundwater accounts for 20% of global irrigation water demand. Quantifying the feedbacks between agriculture and the atmosphere are therefore not only necessary to better understand the climate impacts of land-use change, but are also crucial for predicting long-term water use in water-scarce regions. Here we use high spatial-resolution satellite data to show the impact of irrigated crops in the arid environment of northern Saudi Arabia on cloud cover and rainfall patterns. Land surface temperatures over the crops are 5-10 K lower than their surroundings, linked to evapotranspiration rates of up to 20 mm/ month. Daytime cloud cover is up to 30% higher over the cropland compared to its immediate surroundings, and this enhancement is highly correlated with the seasonal variability in leaf area index. The cloud enhancement is associated with a much more rapid cloud cloud development during the morning. Afternoon rainfall is 85% higher over, and just downwind, of the cropland during the growing season, although rainfall remains very low in absolute terms. The feedback sign we find is the opposite to what has been observed in tropical and semiarid regions, where temperature gradients promote convergence and clouds on the warmer side of land-surface type discontinuities. This suggests that different processes are responsible for the land-atmosphere feedback in very dry environments, where lack of moisture may be a stronger constraint. Increased cloud and rainfall, and associated increases in diffuse radiation and reductions in temperature, can affect vegetation growth thus producing an internal feedback. These effects will therefore need to be taken into account to properly assess the impact of climate change on crop productivity and water use, as well as how global land

  14. Drought on the North American High Plains: Modeling Effects of Vegetation, Temperature, and Rainfall Perturbations on Regional Hydrology (United States)

    Hein, A. E.; Condon, L. E.; Maxwell, R. M.


    Large scale droughts can disrupt the water supply for agriculture, municipalities and industrial use worldwide. For example, the Dustbowl drought of the 1930s severely damaged agriculture on the North American High Plains. The Dustbowl is generally attributed to three major factors: increased temperature, decreased precipitation, and a change from native grasses that might have tolerated these climate perturbations to dryland wheat farming, which did not. This study explores the individual importance of each of these factors and the feedbacks between them. Previous modeling studies have explored how the High Plains system responds to changes in precipitation or temperature, but these models often depend on simplified or lumped parameter approaches. These approaches may not fully represent all the relevant physical processes, especially those related to energy balance changes due to increased temperature. For this study, we built a high-resolution model of the High Plains using ParFlow-CLM, an integrated hydrologic model that solves both energy and water balances from the subsurface to the top of vegetation. Model inputs including geology and climate forcing, together with representative precipitation and temperature changes for a major drought were assembled from public data. Numerical experiments were run to perturb vegetation, precipitation and temperature separately, as well as a baseline scenario with no changes and a worst-case scenario with all three simultaneously. The impact of each factor on High Plains hydrology and water resources was examined by comparing soil moisture, stream flow and water table levels between the runs. The one-factor experiments were used to show which of these outputs was the most sensitive and responded most quickly to each change. The worst-case scenario revealed interactions between the three factors.

  15. The time series variations of tritium concentration in precipitation and its relationships to the rainfall-inducing air mass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Jun


    The author measured the tritium concentration in precipitation of Tokyo for every ten-day period from August 1972 to May 1974. Judging from the daily synoptic weather chart, the rainfall-inducing air masses in Japan were classified into five types; polar maritime air mass (Pm), polar continental air mass (Pc), tropical maritime air mass (Tm), tropical continental air mass (Tc), and equatorial maritime air mass (Em). And the precipitation for every ten-day period sampled for tritium measurement were classified into these five types. Based on this classification, it is confirmed that there exist clear difference in the tritium concentration between the rainfall from the continental air mass and ones from the maritime air mass. It is characteristic that the tritium concentration in rainfall induced by equatorial maritime air mass such as typhoon in summer and early fall season is very low whereas the tritium concentration in rainfall and snowfall induced directly by the polar continental air mass in late winter season is very high. The regional difference of the tritium concentration in intermonthly precipitation could considerably be explained by this synoptic meteological classification of rainfall-inducing air mass. In spite of these regional difference of tritium concentration in precipitation, use of the tritium concentration of Tokyo as a representative value of Japan may be allowed because of the similarities of the changing pattern and annual mean tritium concentration. The time series variations of tritium concentration in precipitation of Tokyo from August 1972 to December 1977, Tsukuba from December 1976 to April 1978, and Nagaoka from April 1977 to March 1978 are listed. (author)

  16. Regionalization of monthly rainfall erosivity patternsin Switzerland (United States)

    Schmidt, Simon; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos; Meusburger, Katrin


    the total annual rainfall erosivity is identified within four months only (June-September). The highest erosion risk can be expected in July, where not only rainfall erosivity but also erosivity density is high. In addition to the intra-annual temporal regime, a spatial variability of this seasonality was detectable between different regions of Switzerland. The assessment of the dynamic behavior of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of susceptible seasons and regions.

  17. What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa? (United States)

    Guan, Kaiyu; Sultan, Benjamin; Biasutti, Michela; Baron, Christian; Lobell, David B.


    How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity, the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intraseasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500 mm/yr) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa.

  18. Tropical radioecology

    CERN Document Server

    Baxter, M


    Tropical Radioecology is a guide to the wide range of scientific practices and principles of this multidisciplinary field. It brings together past and present studies in the tropical and sub-tropical areas of the planet, highlighting the unique aspects of tropical systems. Until recently, radioecological models for tropical environments have depended upon data derived from temperate environments, despite the differences of these regions in terms of biota and abiotic conditions. Since radioactivity can be used to trace environmental processes in humans and other biota, this book offers examples of studies in which radiotracers have been used to assess biokinetics in tropical biota. Features chapters, co-authored by world experts, that explain the origins, inputs, distribution, behaviour, and consequences of radioactivity in tropical and subtropical systems. Provides comprehensive lists of relevant data and identifies current knowledge gaps to allow for targeted radioecological research in the future. Integrate...

  19. Validation of the CHIRPS Satellite Rainfall Estimates over Eastern of Africa (United States)

    Dinku, T.; Funk, C. C.; Tadesse, T.; Ceccato, P.


    Long and temporally consistent rainfall time series are essential in climate analyses and applications. Rainfall data from station observations are inadequate over many parts of the world due to sparse or non-existent observation networks, or limited reporting of gauge observations. As a result, satellite rainfall estimates have been used as an alternative or as a supplement to station observations. However, many satellite-based rainfall products with long time series suffer from coarse spatial and temporal resolutions and inhomogeneities caused by variations in satellite inputs. There are some satellite rainfall products with reasonably consistent time series, but they are often limited to specific geographic areas. The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation (CHIRP) and CHIRP combined with station observations (CHIRPS) are recently produced satellite-based rainfall products with relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions and quasi-global coverage. In this study, CHIRP and CHIRPS were evaluated over East Africa at daily, dekadal (10-day) and monthly time scales. The evaluation was done by comparing the satellite products with rain gauge data from about 1200 stations. The is unprecedented number of validation stations for this region covering. The results provide a unique region-wide understanding of how satellite products perform over different climatic/geographic (low lands, mountainous regions, and coastal) regions. The CHIRP and CHIRPS products were also compared with two similar satellite rainfall products: the African Rainfall Climatology version 2 (ARC2) and the latest release of the Tropical Applications of Meteorology using Satellite data (TAMSAT). The results show that both CHIRP and CHIRPS products are significantly better than ARC2 with higher skill and low or no bias. These products were also found to be slightly better than the latest version of the TAMSAT product. A comparison was also done between the latest release of the TAMSAT product

  20. Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Zulkarnain


    Full Text Available The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015 data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM, as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM. Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

  1. Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia (United States)

    Hassan, Zulkarnain; Haidir, Ahmad; Saad, Farah Naemah Mohd; Ayob, Afizah; Rahim, Mustaqqim Abdul; Ghazaly, Zuhayr Md.


    The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015) data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM), as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM). Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

  2. Tropical storm Irene flood of August 2011 in northwestern Massachusetts (United States)

    Bent, Gardner C.; Olson, Scott A.; Massey, Andrew J.


    A Presidential disaster was declared in northwestern Massachusetts, following flooding from tropical storm Irene on August 28, 2011. During the storm, 3 to 10 inches of rain fell on soils that were susceptible to flash flooding because of wet antecedent conditions. The gage height at one U.S. Geological Survey streamgage rose nearly 20 feet in less than 4 hours because of the combination of saturated soils and intense rainfall. On August 28, 2011, in the Deerfield and Hoosic River Basins in northwestern Massachusetts, new peaks of record were set at six of eight U.S. Geological Survey long-term streamgages with 46 to 100 years of record. Additionally, high-water marks were surveyed and indirect measurements of peak discharge were calculated at two discontinued streamgages in the Deerfield and Hoosic River Basins with 24 and 61 years of record, respectively. This data resulted in new historic peaks of record at the two discontinued streamgages from tropical storm Irene.

  3. Snowmelt water drives higher soil erosion than rainfall water in a mid-high latitude upland watershed (United States)

    Wu, Yuyang; Ouyang, Wei; Hao, Zengchao; Yang, Bowen; Wang, Li


    The impacts of precipitation and temperature on soil erosion are pronounced in mid-high latitude areas, which lead to seasonal variations in soil erosion. Determining the critical erosion periods and the reasons behind the increased erosion loads are essential for soil management decisions. Hence, integrated approaches combining experiments and modelling based on field investigations were applied to investigate watershed soil erosion characteristics and the dynamics of water movement through soils. Long-term and continuous data for surface runoff and soil erosion variation characteristics of uplands in a watershed were observed via five simulations by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In addition, laboratory experiments were performed to quantify the actual soil infiltrabilities in snowmelt seasons (thawed treatment) and rainy seasons (non-frozen treatment). The results showed that over the course of a year, average surface runoff and soil erosion reached peak values of 31.38 mm and 1.46 t ha-1 a-1, respectively, in the month of April. They also ranked high in July and August, falling in the ranges of 23.73 mm to 24.91 mm and 0.55 t ha-1 a-1 to 0.59 t ha-1 a-1, respectively. With the infiltration time extended, thawed soils showed lower infiltrabilities than non-frozen soils, and the differences in soil infiltration amounts between these two were considerable. These results highlighted that soil erosion was very closely and positively correlated with surface runoff. Soil loss was higher in snowmelt periods than in rainy periods due to the higher surface runoff in early spring, and the decreased soil infiltrability in snowmelt periods contributed much to this higher surface runoff. These findings are helpful for identification of critical soil erosion periods when making soil management before critical months, especially those before snowmelt periods.

  4. High-resolution dynamic downscaling of CMIP5 output over the Tropical Andes (United States)

    Reichler, Thomas; Andrade, Marcos; Ohara, Noriaki


    Our project is targeted towards making robust predictions of future changes in climate over the tropical part of the South American Andes. This goal is challenging, since tropical lowlands, steep mountains, and snow covered subarctic surfaces meet over relatively short distances, leading to distinct climate regimes within the same domain and pronounced spatial gradients in virtually every climate quantity. We use an innovative approach to solve this problem, including several quadruple nested versions of WRF, a systematic validation strategy to find the version of WRF that best fits our study region, spatial resolutions at the kilometer scale, 20-year-long simulation periods, and bias-corrected output from various CMIP5 simulations that also include the multi-model mean of all CMIP5 models. We show that the simulated changes in climate are consistent with the results from the global climate models and also consistent with two different versions of WRF. We also discuss the expected changes in snow and ice, derived from off-line coupling the regional simulations to a carefully calibrated snow and ice model.

  5. Satellite observations of rainfall effect on sea surface salinity in the waters adjacent to Taiwan (United States)

    Ho, Chung-Ru; Hsu, Po-Chun; Lin, Chen-Chih; Huang, Shih-Jen


    Changes of oceanic salinity are highly related to the variations of evaporation and precipitation. To understand the influence of rainfall on the sea surface salinity (SSS) in the waters adjacent to Taiwan, satellite remote sensing data from the year of 2012 to 2014 are employed in this study. The daily rain rate data obtained from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Microwave Imager (TRMM/TMI), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR), and WindSat Polarimetric Radiometer. The SSS data was derived from the measurements of radiometer instruments onboard the Aquarius satellite. The results show the average values of SSS in east of Taiwan, east of Luzon and South China Sea are 33.83 psu, 34.05 psu, and 32.84 psu, respectively, in the condition of daily rain rate higher than 1 mm/hr. In contrast to the rainfall condition, the average values of SSS are 34.07 psu, 34.26 psu, and 33.09 psu in the three areas, respectively at no rain condition (rain rate less than 1 mm/hr). During the cases of heavy rainfall caused by spiral rain bands of typhoon, the SSS is diluted with an average value of -0.78 psu when the average rain rate is higher than 4 mm/hr. However, the SSS was increased after temporarily decreased during the typhoon cases. A possible reason to explain this phenomenon is that the heavy rainfall caused by the spiral rain bands of typhoon may dilute the sea surface water, but the strong winds can uplift the higher salinity of subsurface water to the sea surface.

  6. Sediment transport dynamics in steep, tropical volcanic catchments (United States)

    Birkel, Christian; Solano Rivera, Vanessa; Granados Bolaños, Sebastian; Brenes Cambronero, Liz; Sánchez Murillo, Ricardo; Geris, Josie


    How volcanic landforms in tropical mountainous regions are eroded, and how eroded materials move through these mostly steep landscapes from the headwaters to affect sediment fluxes are critical to water resources management in their downstream rivers. Volcanic landscapes are of particular importance because of the short timescales (transform. Owing to volcanism and seismic activity, landslides and other mass movements frequently occur. These processes are amplified by high intensity precipitation inputs resulting in significant, but natural runoff, erosion and sediment fluxes. Sediment transport is also directly linked to carbon and solute export. However, knowledge on the sediment sources and transport dynamics in the humid tropics remains limited and their fluxes largely unquantified. In order to increase our understanding of the dominant erosion and sediment transport dynamics in humid tropical volcanic landscapes, we conducted an extensive monitoring effort in a pristine and protected (biological reserve Alberto Manuel Brenes, ReBAMB) tropical forest catchment (3.2 km2), located in the Central Volcanic Cordillera of Costa Rica (Figure 1A). Typical for tropical volcanic and montane regions, deeply incised V-form headwaters (Figure 1B) deliver the majority of water (>70%) and sediments to downstream rivers. At the catchment outlet (Figure 1C) of the San Lorencito stream, we established high temporal resolution (5min) water quantity and sediment monitoring (turbidity). We also surveyed the river network on various occasions to characterize fluvial geomorphology including material properties. We could show that the rainfall-runoff-sediment relationships and their characteristic hysteresis patterns are directly linked to variations in the climatic input (storm intensity and duration) and the size, form and mineralogy of the transported material. Such a relationship allowed us to gain the following insights: (i) periodic landslides contribute significant volumes of

  7. Monsoon Rainfall and Landslides in Nepal (United States)

    Dahal, R. K.; Hasegawa, S.; Bhandary, N. P.; Yatabe, R.


    A large number of human settlements on the Nepal Himalayas are situated either on old landslide mass or on landslide-prone areas. As a result, a great number of people are affected by large- and small-scale landslides all over the Himalayas especially during monsoon periods. In Nepal, only in the half monsoon period (June 10 to August 15), 70, 50 and 68 people were killed from landslides in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. In this context, this paper highlights monsoon rainfall and their implications in the Nepal Himalaya. In Nepal, monsoon is major source of rainfall in summer and approximately 80% of the annual total rainfall occurs from June to September. The measured values of mean annual precipitation in Nepal range from a low of approximately 250 mm at area north of the Himalaya to many areas exceeding 6,000 mm. The mean annual rainfall varying between 1500 mm and 2500 mm predominate over most of the country. In Nepal, the daily distribution of precipitation during rainy season is also uneven. Sometime 10% of the total annual precipitation can occur in a single day. Similarly, 50% total annual rainfall also can occur within 10 days of monsoon. This type of uneven distribution plays an important role in triggering many landslides in Nepal. When spatial distribution of landslides was evaluated from record of more than 650 landslides, it is found that more landslides events were concentrated at central Nepal in the area of high mean annual rainfall. When monsoon rainfall and landslide relationship was taken into consideration, it was noticed that a considerable number of landslides were triggered in the Himalaya by continuous rainfall of 3 to 90 days. It has been noticed that continuous rainfall of few days (5 days or 7 days or 10 days) are usually responsible for landsliding in the Nepal Himalaya. Monsoon rains usually fall with interruptions of 2-3 days and are generally characterized by low intensity and long duration. Thus, there is a strong role of

  8. Prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India using the NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pattanaik, D.R. [India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi (India); Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)


    The performance of a dynamical seasonal forecast system is evaluated for the prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region during June to September (JJAS). The evaluation is based on the National Centre for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) climate forecast system (CFS) initialized during March, April and May and integrated for a period of 9 months with a 15 ensemble members for 25 years period from 1981 to 2005. The CFS's hindcast climatology during JJAS of March (lag-3), April (lag-2) and May (lag-1) initial conditions show mostly an identical pattern of rainfall similar to that of verification climatology with the rainfall maxima (one over the west-coast of India and the other over the head Bay of Bengal region) well simulated. The pattern correlation between verification and forecast climatology over the global tropics and Indian monsoon region (IMR) bounded by 50 E-110 E and 10 S-35 N shows significant correlation coefficient (CCs). The skill of simulation of broad scale monsoon circulation index (Webster and Yang; WY index) is quite good in the CFS with highly significant CC between the observed and predicted by the CFS from the March, April and May forecasts. High skill in forecasting El Nino event is also noted for the CFS March, April and May initial conditions, whereas, the skill of the simulation of Indian Ocean Dipole is poor and is basically due to the poor skill of prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Over the IMR the skill of monsoon rainfall forecast during JJAS as measured by the spatial Anomaly CC between forecast rainfall anomaly and the observed rainfall anomaly during 1991, 1994, 1997 and 1998 is high (almost of the order of 0.6), whereas, during the year 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987 and 1989 the ACC is only around 0.3. By using lower and upper tropospheric forecast winds during JJAS over the regions of significant CCs as predictors for the All India Summer Monsoon

  9. Submerged Humid Tropical Karst Landforms Observed By High-Resolution Multibeam Survey in Nagura Bay, Ishigaki Island, Southwestern Japan (United States)

    Kan, H.; Urata, K.; Nagao, M.; Hori, N.; Fujita, K.; Yokoyama, Y.; Nakashima, Y.; Ohashi, T.; Goto, K.; Suzuki, A.


    Submerged tropical karst features were discovered in Nagura Bay on Ishigaki Island in the South Ryukyu Islands, Japan. This is the first description of submerged humid tropical karst using multibeam bathymetry. We conducted a broadband multibeam survey in the central area of Nagura Bay (1.85 × 2.7 km) and visualized the high-resolution bathymetric results with a grid size of 1 m over a depth range of 1.6-58.5 m. Various types of humid tropical karst landforms were found to coexist within the bay, including fluviokarst, doline karst, cockpit karst, polygonal karst, uvalas, and mega-dolines. We assume that Nagura Bay was a large karst basin in which older limestone remained submerged, thus preventing corrosion and the accumulation of reef sediments during periods of submersion, whereas the limestone outcropping on land was corroded during multiple interglacial and glacial periods. Based on our bathymetric result together with aerial photographs of the coastal area, we conclude that the submerged karst landscape has likely developed throughout the whole of Nagura Bay, covering an area of ~6 × 5 km. Accordingly, this area hosts the largest submerged karst in Japan. We also observed abundant coral communities during our SCUBA observations. The present marine conditions of Nagura Bay are characterized by low energy (calm sea) and low irradiance owing to the terrestrial influence. Such conditions have been emphasized by the presence of large undulating landforms, which cause decreases in wave intensity and irradiance with depth. These characteristics have acted to establish unique conditions compared to other coral reef areas in the Ryukyu Islands. It may play an important role in supporting the regional coral reef ecosystem.

  10. Effect of Moxidectin Treatment at Peripartum on Gastrointestinal Parasite Infections in Ewes Raised under Tropical Andes High Altitude Conditions (United States)

    Vargas-Duarte, J. J.; Lozano-Márquez, H.; Grajales-Lombana, H. A.; Manrique-Perdomo, C.; Martínez-Bello, D. A.; Saegerman, C.; Raes, M.; Kirschvink, N.


    This study tested the impact of moxidectin at peripartum on nematode fecal egg count (FEC) and clinical parameters on ewes in the high altitude tropical Andes of Colombia. FEC and clinical evaluations were performed on 9 occasions in 43 naturally infected ewes before and during gestation and after lambing. Moxidectin (Mox, 200 µg kg−1) was applied at late pregnancy (T 1, n = 15) or 48 hours after parturition (T 2, n = 14). 14 untreated ewes served as controls (C). Suckling lambs (n = 58) remained untreated and underwent four clinical and parasitological evaluations until 8 weeks after birth. Mox efficacy equaled 99.3% (T 1) and 96.9% (T 2). Highest mean FEC value reflecting periparturient nematode egg rise (PPER) was recorded in C ewes at 4–6 weeks after lambing. Significant FEC reductions were found in T 1 (94.8%) and T 2 (96.7%) ewes (p ewes-group independent increase in FEC before weaning (p < 0.05). Clinical parameters (anemia and diarrhea) showed time- and treatment-related differences (p < 0.05). Monitoring of FEC and clinical parameters linked to gastrointestinal parasite infections allowed demonstrating that postpartum or preweaning are two critical periods to nematode infection for sheep raised under tropical Andes high altitude conditions. Use of Mox as anthelmintic treatment prevented PPER. PMID:26078913

  11. Enhanced Influence of the Tropical Atlantic SST on the Western North Pacific Subtropical High after late 1970s (United States)

    Hong, C. C.


    The western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in boreal summer shows a remarkable enhancement after the late 1970s. Whereas the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and the equatorial eastern Pacific (EEP) had been noted to have remarkable local or remote effects on enhancing the WNPSH, the influence of the Atlantic SST, so far, is hardly explored. This article reports a new finding: enhanced relationship between the tropical Atlantic (TA)-SST and the WNPSH after the late 1970s. Regression study suggests that the warm TA-SST produced a zonally overturning circulation anomaly, with descending over the central equatorial Pacific and ascending over the tropical Atlantic/eastern Pacific. The anomalous descending over the central equatorial Pacific likely induced low-level anticyclonic anomaly to the west and therefore enhanced the WNPSH. One implication of this new finding is for predictability. The well-known "spring predictability barrier" (i.e., the influence of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) falls dramatically during boreal spring) does not apply to the TA-SST/WNPSH relationship. Conversely, the TA-SST shows consistently high correlation starting from boreal spring when the ENSO influence continues declining. The TA-SST pushes the predictability of the WNPSH in boreal summer approximately one season earlier to boreal spring.

  12. Comparative study of enteric viruses, coliphages and indicator bacteria for evaluating water quality in a tropical high-altitude system. (United States)

    Espinosa, Ana C; Arias, Carlos F; Sánchez-Colón, Salvador; Mazari-Hiriart, Marisa


    Bacteria used as indicators for pathogenic microorganisms in water are not considered adequate as enteric virus indicators. Surface water from a tropical high-altitude system located in Mexico City that receives rainwater, treated and non-treated wastewater used for irrigation, and groundwater used for drinking, was studied. The presence of enterovirus, rotavirus, astrovirus, coliphage, coliform bacteria, and enterococci was determined during annual cycles in 2001 and 2002. Enteric viruses in concentrated water samples were detected by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Coliphages were detected using the double agar layer method. Bacteria analyses of the water samples were carried out by membrane filtration. The presence of viruses and bacteria in the water used for irrigation showed no relationship between current bacterial indicator detection and viral presence. Coliphages showed strong association with indicator bacteria and enterovirus, but weak association with other enteric viruses. Enterovirus and rotavirus showed significant seasonal differences in water used for irrigation, although this was not clear for astrovirus. Coliphages proved to be adequate faecal pollution indicators for the irrigation water studied. Viral presence in this tropical high-altitude system showed a similar trend to data previously reported for temperate zones.

  13. Comparative study of enteric viruses, coliphages and indicator bacteria for evaluating water quality in a tropical high-altitude system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazari-Hiriart Marisa


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bacteria used as indicators for pathogenic microorganisms in water are not considered adequate as enteric virus indicators. Surface water from a tropical high-altitude system located in Mexico City that receives rainwater, treated and non-treated wastewater used for irrigation, and groundwater used for drinking, was studied. Methods The presence of enterovirus, rotavirus, astrovirus, coliphage, coliform bacteria, and enterococci was determined during annual cycles in 2001 and 2002. Enteric viruses in concentrated water samples were detected by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR. Coliphages were detected using the double agar layer method. Bacteria analyses of the water samples were carried out by membrane filtration. Results The presence of viruses and bacteria in the water used for irrigation showed no relationship between current bacterial indicator detection and viral presence. Coliphages showed strong association with indicator bacteria and enterovirus, but weak association with other enteric viruses. Enterovirus and rotavirus showed significant seasonal differences in water used for irrigation, although this was not clear for astrovirus. Conclusion Coliphages proved to be adequate faecal pollution indicators for the irrigation water studied. Viral presence in this tropical high-altitude system showed a similar trend to data previously reported for temperate zones.

  14. Rainfall Stochastic models (United States)

    Campo, M. A.; Lopez, J. J.; Rebole, J. P.


    This work was carried out in north of Spain. San Sebastian A meteorological station, where there are available precipitation records every ten minutes was selected. Precipitation data covers from October of 1927 to September of 1997. Pulse models describe the temporal process of rainfall as a succession of rainy cells, main storm, whose origins are distributed in time according to a Poisson process and a secondary process that generates a random number of cells of rain within each storm. Among different pulse models, the Bartlett-Lewis was used. On the other hand, alternative renewal processes and Markov chains describe the way in which the process will evolve in the future depending only on the current state. Therefore they are nor dependant on past events. Two basic processes are considered when describing the occurrence of rain: the alternation of wet and dry periods and temporal distribution of rainfall in each rain event, which determines the rainwater collected in each of the intervals that make up the rain. This allows the introduction of alternative renewal processes and Markov chains of three states, where interstorm time is given by either of the two dry states, short or long. Thus, the stochastic model of Markov chains tries to reproduce the basis of pulse models: the succession of storms, each one composed for a series of rain, separated by a short interval of time without theoretical complexity of these. In a first step, we analyzed all variables involved in the sequential process of the rain: rain event duration, event duration of non-rain, average rainfall intensity in rain events, and finally, temporal distribution of rainfall within the rain event. Additionally, for pulse Bartlett-Lewis model calibration, main descriptive statistics were calculated for each month, considering the process of seasonal rainfall in each month. In a second step, both models were calibrated. Finally, synthetic series were simulated with calibration parameters; series

  15. [Seasonality of rotavirus infection in Venezuela: relationship between monthly rotavirus incidence and rainfall rates]. (United States)

    González Chávez, Rosabel


    In general, it has been reported that rotavirus infection was detected year round in tropical countries. However, studies in Venezuela and Brazil suggest a seasonal behavior of the infection. On the other hand, some studies link infection with climatic variables such as rainfall. This study analyzes the pattern of behavior of the rotavirus infection in Carabobo-Venezuela (2001-2005), associates the seasonality of the infection with rainfall, and according to the seasonal pattern, estimates the age of greatest risk for infection. The analysis of the rotavirus temporal series and accumulated precipitation was performed with the software SPSS. The infection showed two periods: high incidence (November-April) and low incidence (May-October). Accumulated precipitation presents an opposite behavior. The highest frequency of events (73.8% 573/779) for those born in the period with a low incidence of the virus was recorded at an earlier age (mean age 6.5 +/- 2.0 months) when compared with those born in the station of high incidence (63.5% 568/870, mean age 11.7 +/- 2.2 months). Seasonality of the infection and the inverse relationship between virus incidence and rainfall was demonstrated. In addition, it was found that the period of birth determines the age and risk of infection. This information generated during the preaccine period will be helpful to measure the impact of the vaccine against the rotavirus.

  16. Maintenance of Austral Summertime Upper-Tropospheric Circulation over Tropical South America: The Bolivian High-Nordeste Low System. (United States)

    Chen, Tsing-Chang; Weng, Shu-Ping; Schubert, Siegfried


    Using the NASA/GEOS reanalysis data for 1980-95, the austral-summer stationary eddies in the tropical-subtropical Southern Hemisphere are examined in two wave regimes: long and short wave (wave 1 and waves 2-6, respectively). The basic structure of the Bolivian high-Nordeste low (BH-NL) system is formed by a short-wave train across South America but modulated by the long-wave regime. The short-wave train exhibits a monsoonlike vertical phase reversal in the midtroposphere and a quarter-wave phase shift relative to the divergent circulation. As inferred from (a) the spatial relationship between the streamfunction and velocity potential and (b) the structure of the divergent circulation, the short-wave train forming the BH-NL system is maintained by South American local heating and remote African heating, while the long-wave regime is maintained by western tropical Pacific heating.The maintenance of the stationary waves in the two wave regimes is further illustrated by a simple diagnostic scheme that includes the velocity-potential maintenance equation (which links velocity potential and diabatic heating) and the streamfunction budget (which is the inverse Laplacian transform of the vorticity equation). Some simple relationships between streamfunction and velocity potential for both wave regimes are established to substantiate the links between diabatic heating and streamfunction; of particular interest is a Sverdrup balance in the short-wave regime. This simplified vorticity equation explains the vertical structure of the short-wave train associated with the BH-NL system and its spatial relationship with the divergent circulation.Based upon the diagnostic analysis of its maintenance a simple forced barotropic model is adopted to simulate the BH-NL system with idealized forcings, which imitates the real 200-mb divergence centers over South America, Africa, and the tropical Pacific. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the formation of the BH-NL system is affected

  17. Characteristic and Behavior of Rainfall Induced Landslides in Java Island, Indonesia : an Overview (United States)

    Christanto, N.; Hadmoko, D. S.; Westen, C. J.; Lavigne, F.; Sartohadi, J.; Setiawan, M. A.


    Landslides are important natural hazards occurring on mountainous area situated in the wet tropical climate like in Java, Indonesia. As a central of economic and government activity, Java become the most populated island in Indonesia and is increasing every year. This condition create population more vulnerable to hazard. Java is populated by 120 million inhabitants or equivalent with 60% of Indonesian population in only 6,9% of the total surface of Indonesia. Due to its geological setting, its topographical characteristics, and its climatic characteristics, Java is the most exposed regions to landslide hazard and closely related to several factors: (1) located on a subduction zone, 60% of Java is mountainous, with volcano-tectonic mountain chains and 36 active volcanoes out of the 129 in Indonesia, and these volcanic materials are intensively weathered (2) Java is under a humid tropical climate associated with heavy rainfall during the rainy season from October to April. On top of these "natural" conditions, the human activity is an additional factor of landslide occurrence, driven by a high demographic density The purpose of this paper was to collect and analyze spatial and temporal data concerning landslide hazard for the period 1981-2007 and to evaluate and analyze the characteristic and the behavior of landslide in Java. The results provides a new insight into our understanding of landslide hazard and characteristic in the humid tropics, and a basis for predicting future landslides and assessing related hazards at a regional scale. An overview of characteristic and behavior of landslides in Java is given. The result of this work would be valuable for decision makers and communities in the frame of future landslide risk reduction programs. Landslide inventory data was collected from internal database at the different institutions. The result is then georefenced. The temporal changes of landslide activities was done by examining the changes in number and

  18. Origins and interrelationship of Intraseasonal rainfall variations around the Maritime Continent during boreal winter (United States)

    Cao, Xi; Wu, Renguang


    Large intraseasonal rainfall variations are identified over the southern South China Sea (SSCS), tropical southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO), and east coast of the Philippines (EPHI) in boreal winter. The present study contrasts origins and propagations and investigates interrelations of intraseasonal rainfall variations on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales in these regions. Different origins are identified for intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the SSCS, SEIO, and EPHI on both time scales. On the 10-20-day time scale, strong northerly or northeasterly wind anomalies related to the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) play a major role in intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS and EPHI. On the 30-60-day time scale, both the intraseasonal signal from the tropical Indian Ocean and the EAWM-related wind anomalies contribute to intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS, whereas the EAWM-related wind anomalies have a major contribution to the intraseasonal rainfall variations over the EPHI. No relation is detected between the intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SEIO and the EAWM on both the 10-20-day and 30-60-day time scales. The anomalies associated with intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS and EPHI propagate northwestward and northeastward, respectively, on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales. The intraseasonal rainfall anomalies display northwestward and northward propagation over the Bay of Bengal, respectively, on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales.

  19. Comprehensive overview of FPL field testing conducted in the tropics (1945-2005) (United States)

    Grant T. Kirker; Stan L. Lebow; Mark E. Mankowski


    Tropical exposure often represents a more severe environment for treated wood and wood based products. Accelerated tropical decay rates are typically attributed to higher mean rainfall and temperatures. The Forest Products Laboratory (FPL) in Madison, WI has been conducting tropical field tests in a variety of locations since the early 1940’s. This paper summarizes FPL...

  20. Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions (United States)

    Freund, Mandy; Henley, Benjamin J.; Karoly, David J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Baker, Patrick J.


    Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April-September) and warm (October-March) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997-2009) appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental period (Federation Drought

  1. Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Freund


    Full Text Available Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean–atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April–September and warm (October–March season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997–2009 appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental

  2. High midday temperature stress has stronger effects on biomass than on photosynthesis: A mesocosm experiment on four tropical seagrass species. (United States)

    George, Rushingisha; Gullström, Martin; Mangora, Mwita M; Mtolera, Matern S P; Björk, Mats


    The effect of repeated midday temperature stress on the photosynthetic performance and biomass production of seagrass was studied in a mesocosm setup with four common tropical species, including Thalassia hemprichii , Cymodocea serrulata , Enhalus acoroides , and Thalassodendron ciliatum . To mimic natural conditions during low tides, the plants were exposed to temperature spikes of different maximal temperatures, that is, ambient (29-33°C), 34, 36, 40, and 45°C, during three midday hours for seven consecutive days. At temperatures of up to 36°C, all species could maintain full photosynthetic rates (measured as the electron transport rate, ETR) throughout the experiment without displaying any obvious photosynthetic stress responses (measured as declining maximal quantum yield, Fv/Fm). All species except T. ciliatum could also withstand 40°C, and only at 45°C did all species display significantly lower photosynthetic rates and declining Fv/Fm. Biomass estimation, however, revealed a different pattern, where significant losses of both above- and belowground seagrass biomass occurred in all species at both 40 and 45°C (except for C. serrulata in the 40°C treatment). Biomass losses were clearly higher in the shoots than in the belowground root-rhizome complex. The findings indicate that, although tropical seagrasses presently can cope with high midday temperature stress, a few degrees increase in maximum daily temperature could cause significant losses in seagrass biomass and productivity.

  3. A comprehensive continent-wide regionalisation investigation for daily design rainfall


    F. Johnson; J. Green


    Study region: Australia. Study focus: Design rainfalls, in the form of Intensity Duration Frequency curves, are the standard input for most flood studies. Methods to combine rainfall data across space are required to provide optimal estimates of design rainfalls and constrain their uncertainty. This paper robustly investigates the use of a variety of regionalization methods to provide Australia wide design rainfall estimates using 8619 high quality rainfall stations. The influence of an indiv...

  4. Precipitation isotopes link regional climate patterns to water supply in a tropical mountain forest, eastern Puerto Rico (United States)

    Scholl, Martha A.; Murphy, Sheila F.


    Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico have abundant rainfall and stream discharge and provide much of the water supply for the densely populated metropolitan areas nearby. Projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics as a result of global warming suggest that water availability will be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. It is essential to understand the relative importance of different weather systems to water supply to determine how changes in rainfall patterns, interacting with geology and vegetation, will affect the water balance. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, stable isotope signatures of precipitation from different weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Precipitation stable isotope values in the Luquillo Mountains had a large range, from fog/cloud water with δ2H, δ18O values as high as +12 ‰, -0.73 ‰ to tropical storm rain with values as low as -127 ‰, -16.8 ‰. Temporal isotope values exhibit a reverse seasonality from those observed in higher latitude continental watersheds, with higher isotopic values in the winter and lower values in the summer. Despite the higher volume of convective and low-pressure system rainfall, stable isotope analyses indicated that under the current rainfall regime, frequent trade -wind orographic showers contribute much of the groundwater recharge and stream base flow. Analysis of rain events using 20 years of 15 -minute resolution data at a mountain station (643 m) showed an increasing trend in rainfall amount, in agreement with increased precipitable water in the atmosphere, but differing from climate model projections of drying in the region. The mean intensity of rain events also showed an increasing trend. The determination of recharge sources from stable isotope tracers indicates that water supply

  5. Understanding the relationship between DOC and nitrate export and dominant rainfall-runoff processes through long-term high frequency measurements (United States)

    Schwab, Michael; Klaus, Julian; Pfister, Laurent; Weiler, Markus


    Over the past decades, stream sampling protocols for hydro-geochemical parameters were often limited by logistical and technological constraints. While long-term monitoring protocols were typically based on weekly sampling intervals, high frequency sampling was commonly limited to a few single events. In our study, we combined high frequency and long-term measurements to understand the DOC and nitrate behaviour and dynamics for different runoff events and seasons. Our study area is the forested Weierbach catchment (0.47 km2) in Luxembourg. The fractured schist bedrock is covered by cambisol soils. The runoff response of the catchment is characterized by a double peak behaviour. A first discharge peak occurs during or right after a rainfall event (triggered by fast near surface runoff generation processes), while a second delayed peak lasts several days (generated by subsurface flow/ shallow groundwater flow). Peaks in DOC concentrations are closely linked to the first discharge peak, whereas nitrate concentrations follow the second peak. Our observations were carried out with the field deployable instrument spectro::lyser (scan Messtechnik GmbH). This instrument relies on the principles of UV-Vis spectrometry and measures DOC and nitrate concentrations. The measurements were carried out at a high frequency of 15 minutes in situ in the Weierbach creek for more than two years. In addition, a long-term validation was carried out with data obtained from the analysis of water collected with automatic samplers. The long-term, high-frequency measurements allowed us to calculate a complete and detailed balance of DOC and nitrate export over two years. Transport behaviour of the DOC and nitrate showed different dynamics between the first and second hydrograph peaks. DOC is mainly exported during first peaks, while nitrate is mostly exported during the delayed second peaks. In combination with other measurements in the catchment, the long and detailed observations have

  6. Implementing a spinosad-based local bait station to control Bactrocera cucurbitae (Diptera: Tephritidae) in high rainfall areas of Reunion Island. (United States)

    Delpoux, Camille; Deguine, Jean-Philippe


    Three species of fruit flies cause serious damage to cucurbit crops on Reunion Island: Bactrocera cucurbitae (Diptera: Tephritidae) (Coquillett 1899), Dacus ciliatus (Loew 1901), and Dacus demmerezi (Bezzi 1917). To control them, a program of agroecological management of cucurbit flies has been implemented based on the application of Synéis-appât, especially spot sprays on corn borders. However, the high rainfall on Reunion Island limits the long-term efficiency of the bait; in addition, this method cannot be used for large chayote trellises, because corn borders cannot be planted around them. The aim of this study was to design a bait station adapted to prevailing conditions on Reunion Island. An 'umbrella trap' tested in Taiwan was used as a reference to compare its efficacy with our local bait station. Experiments were conducted in field cages on B. cucurbitae to test different characteristics of bait stations and to construct one using local materials. Results were validated in the field. The attractiveness of the bait station was related mainly to the color of the external surface, yellow being the most attractive color. The efficacy of the bait station with respect to fly mortality was found to be linked to the accessibility of the bait, and direct application of Synéis-appât on the bait station was found to be the most efficient. In the field, B. cucurbitae were more attracted to the local bait station than to the umbrella trap, while the two other fly species displayed equal attraction to both trap types. Our local bait station is a useful alternative to spot sprays of Synéis-appât and is now included in a local pest management program and is well accepted by farmers. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

  7. Evaluation of TRMM 3B42 V7 Rainfall Product over the Oum Er Rbia Watershed in Morocco


    Hamza Ouatiki; Abdelghani Boudhar; Yves Tramblay; Lionel Jarlan; Tarik Benabdelouhab; Lahoucine Hanich; M. Rachid El Meslouhi; Abdelghani Chehbouni


    In arid and semi-arid areas, rainfall is often characterized by a strong spatial and temporal variability. These environmental factors, combined with the sparsity of the measurement networks in developing countries, constitute real constraints for water resources management. In recent years, several spatial rainfall measurement sources have become available, such as TRMM data (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission). In this study, the TRMM 3B42 Version 7 product was evaluated using rain gauge...

  8. Regimes of Diurnal Variation of Summer Rainfall over Subtropical East Asia

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    Yuan W.; Lin W.; Yu, R.; Zhang, M.; Chen, H.; Li, J.


    Using hourly rain gauge records and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 from 1998 to 2006, the authors present an analysis of the diurnal characteristics of summer rainfall over subtropical East Asia. The study shows that there are four different regimes of distinct diurnal variation of rainfall in both the rain gauge and the satellite data. They are located over the Tibetan Plateau with late-afternoon and midnight peaks, in the western China plain with midnight to early-morning peaks, in the eastern China plain with double peaks in late afternoon and early morning, and over the East China Sea with an early-morning peak. No propagation of diurnal phases is found from the land to the ocean across the coastlines. The different diurnal regimes are highly correlated with the inhomogeneous underlying surface, such as the plateau, plain, and ocean, with physical mechanisms consistent with the large-scale 'mountain-valley' and 'land-sea' breezes and convective instability. These diurnal characteristics over subtropical East Asia can be used as diagnostic metrics to evaluate the physical parameterization and hydrological cycle of climate models over East Asia.

  9. Sensitivity of Horn of Africa Rainfall to Regional Sea Surface Temperature Forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zewdu T. Segele


    Full Text Available The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP version 4.4 Regional Climate Model (RegCM4 is used to investigate the rainfall response to cooler/warmer sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA forcing in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. The effect of SSTA forcing in a specific ocean basin is identified by ensemble, averaging 10 individual simulations in which a constant or linearly zonally varying SSTA is prescribed in individual basins while specifying the 1971–2000 monthly varying climatological sea surface temperature (SST across the remaining model domain. The nonlinear rainfall response to SSTA amplitude also is investigated by separately specifying +1K, +2K, and +4K SSTA forcing in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The simulation results show that warm SSTs over the entire Indian Ocean produce drier conditions across the larger Blue Nile catchment, whereas warming ≥ +2K generates large positive rainfall anomalies exceeding 10 mm·day−1 over drought prone regions of Northeastern Ethiopia. However, the June–September rainy season tends to be wetter (drier when the SST warming (cooling is limited to either the Northern or Southern Indian Ocean. Wet rainy seasons generally are characterized by deepening of the monsoon trough, east of 40°E, intensification of the Mascarene high, strengthening of the Somali low level jet and the tropical easterly jet, enhanced zonal and meridional vertically integrated moisture fluxes, and steeply vertically decreasing moist static energy. The opposite conditions hold for dry monsoon seasons.

  10. Accuracy of rainfall measurement for scales of hydrological interest

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    S. J. Wood


    Full Text Available The dense network of 49 raingauges over the 135 km2 Brue catchment in Somerset, England is used to examine the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained from raingauges and from weather radar. Methods for data quality control and classification of precipitation types are first described. A super-dense network comprising eight gauges within a 2 km grid square is employed to obtain a 'true value' of rainfall against which the 2 km radar grid and a single 'typical gauge' estimate can be compared. Accuracy is assessed as a function of rainfall intensity, for different periods of time-integration (15 minutes, 1 hour and 1 day and for two 8-gauge networks in areas of low and high relief. In a similar way, the catchment gauge network is used to provide the 'true catchment rainfall' and the accuracy of a radar estimate (an area-weighted average of radar pixel values and a single 'typical gauge' estimate of catchment rainfall evaluated as a function of rainfall intensity. A single gauge gives a standard error of estimate for rainfall in a 2 km square and over the catchment of 33% and 65% respectively, at rain rates of 4 mm in 15 minutes. Radar data at 2 km resolution give corresponding errors of 50% and 55%. This illustrates the benefit of using radar when estimating catchment scale rainfall. A companion paper (Wood et al., 2000 considers the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained using raingauge and radar in combination. Keywords: rainfall, accuracy, raingauge, radar

  11. Index of thermal stress for cows (ITSC) under high solar radiation in tropical environments (United States)

    Da Silva, Roberto Gomes; Maia, Alex Sandro C.; de Macedo Costa, Leonardo Lelis


    This paper presents a new thermal stress index for dairy cows in inter-tropical regions, with special mention to the semi-arid ones. Holstein cows were measured for rectal temperature ( T R), respiratory rate ( F R) and rates of heat exchange by convection ( C), radiation ( R), skin surface evaporation ( E S) and respiratory evaporation ( E R) in the north eastern region of Brazil, after exposure to sun for several hours. Average environmental measurements during the observations were air temperature ( T A) 32.4 °C (24.4-38.9°), wind speed ( U) 1.8 m.s-1 (0.01-11.0), relative humidity 63.6 % (36.8-81.5) and short-wave solar radiation 701.3 W m-2 (116-1,295). The effective radiant heat load (ERHL) was 838.5 ± 4.9 W m-2. Values for the atmospheric transmittance ( τ) were also determined for tropical regions, in order to permit adequate estimates of the solar radiation. The average value was τ = 0.611 ± 0.004 for clear days with some small moving clouds, with a range of 0.32 to 0.91 in the day period from 1000 to 1300 hours. Observed τ values were higher (0.62-0.66) for locations near the seacoast and in those regions well-provided with green fields. Effects of month, location and time of the day were all statistically significant ( P cows exposed for 1 to 8 h to sun during the day; in 7 months (February, March, April, July, August, September and November), 4 days per month on the average. A principal component analysis summarised the T R, F R, C, R, E S and E R measurements into just one synthetic variable ( y 1); several indexes were then obtained by multiple regression of y 1 on the four environmental variables and its combinations, by using Origin 8.1 software (OriginLab Corp.). The chosen equation was the index of thermal stress for cows, ITSC = 77.1747 + 4.8327 T A - 34.8189 U + 1.111 U 2 + 118.6981 P V - 14.7956 P V 2 - 0.1059 ERHL with r 2 = 0.812. The correlations of ITSC with T R, F R, C, E S, R and E R were 0.275, 0.255, -0.493, -0.647, -0.818 and 0

  12. Global Climatic Indices Influence on Rainfall Spatiotemporal Distribution : A Case Study from Morocco (United States)

    Elkadiri, R.; Zemzami, M.; Phillips, J.


    The climate of Morocco is affected by the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean the Sahara and the Atlas mountains, creating a highly variable spatial and temporal distribution. In this study, we aim to decompose the rainfall in Morocco into global and local signals and understand the contribution of the climatic indices (CIs) on rainfall. These analyses will contribute in understanding the Moroccan climate that is typical of other Mediterranean and North African climatic zones. In addition, it will contribute in a long-term prediction of climate. The constructed database ranges from 1950 to 2013 and consists of monthly data from 147 rainfall stations and 37 CIs data provided mostly by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. The next general steps were followed: (1) the study area was divided into 9 homogenous climatic regions and weighted precipitation was calculated for each region to reduce the local effects. (2) Each CI was decomposed into nine components of different frequencies (D1 to D9) using wavelet multiresolution analysis. The four lowest frequencies of each CI were selected. (3) Each of the original and resulting signals were shifted from one to six months to account for the effect of the global patterns. The application of steps two and three resulted in the creation of 1225 variables from the original 37 CIs. (4) The final 1225 variables were used to identify links between the global and regional CIs and precipitation in each of the nine homogenous regions using stepwise regression and decision tree. The preliminary analyses and results were focused on the north Atlantic zone and have shown that the North Atlantic Oscillation (PC-based) from NCAR (NAOPC), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WMO) and the Extreme Eastern Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (NINO12) have the highest correlation with rainfall (33%, 30%, 27%, 21% and -20%, respectively). In addition the 4-months lagged

  13. On the Breeding of Bivoltine Breeds of the Silkworm, Bombyx mori L. (Lepidoptera: Bombycidae, Tolerant to High Temperature and High Humidity Conditions of the Tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harjeet Singh


    Full Text Available The hot climatic conditions of tropics prevailing particularly in summer are contributing to the poor performance of the bivoltine breeds and the most important aspect is that many quantitative characters such as viability and cocoon traits decline sharply when temperature is high. Hence, in a tropical country like India, it is very essential to develop bivoltine breeds/hybrids which can withstand the high temperature stress conditions. This has resulted in the development of CSR18 × CSR19, compatible hybrid for rearing throughout the year by utilizing Japanese thermotolerant hybrids as breeding resource material. Though, the introduction of CSR18 × CSR19 in the field during summer months had considerable impact, the productivity level and returns realized do not match that of other productive CSR hybrids. Therefore, the acceptance level of this hybrid with the farmers was not up to the expected level. This has necessitated the development of a temperature tolerant hybrid with better productivity traits than CSR18 × CSR19. Though, it was a difficult task to break the negative correlation associated with survival and productivity traits, attempts on this line had resulted in the development of CSR46 × CSR47, a temperature tolerant bivoltine hybrid with better productivity traits than CSR18 × CSR19. However, though, these hybrids are tolerant to high temperature environments, they are not tolerant to many of the silkworm diseases. Keeping this in view, an attempt is made to develop silkworm hybrids tolerant to high temperature environments.

  14. Evaluation of rainfall retrievals from SEVIRI reflectances over West Africa using TRMM-PR and CMORPH (United States)

    Wolters, E. L. A.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Roebeling, R. A.


    by high correlation coefficients (~0.7) for both rain rate and rain occurrence frequency. The daytime cycle of rainfall from CPP-PP shows distinctly different patterns for three different regions in West Africa throughout the WAM, with a decrease in dynamical range of rainfall near the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The dynamical range as retrieved from CPP-PP is larger than that from CMORPH. It is suggested that this results from both the better spatio-temporal resolution of SEVIRI, as well as from thermal infrared radiances being partly used by CMORPH, which likely smoothes the daytime precipitation signal, especially in case of cold anvils from convective systems. The promising results show that the CPP-PP algorithm, taking advantage of the high spatio-temporal resolution of SEVIRI, is of added value for monitoring daytime precipitation patterns in tropical areas.

  15. Evaluation of rainfall retrievals from SEVIRI reflectances over West Africa using TRMM-PR and CMORPH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. L. A. Wolters


    correspondence between CPP-PP and CMORPH was found, which is reflected by high correlation coefficients (~0.7 for both rain rate and rain occurrence frequency. The daytime cycle of rainfall from CPP-PP shows distinctly different patterns for three different regions in West Africa throughout the WAM, with a decrease in dynamical range of rainfall near the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ. The dynamical range as retrieved from CPP-PP is larger than that from CMORPH. It is suggested that this results from both the better spatio-temporal resolution of SEVIRI, as well as from thermal infrared radiances being partly used by CMORPH, which likely smoothes the daytime precipitation signal, especially in case of cold anvils from convective systems. The promising results show that the CPP-PP algorithm, taking advantage of the high spatio-temporal resolution of SEVIRI, is of added value for monitoring daytime precipitation patterns in tropical areas.

  16. Rainfall characteristics and thresholds for periglacial debris flows in the Parlung Zangbo Basin, southeast Tibetan Plateau (United States)

    Deng, Mingfeng; Chen, Ningsheng; Ding, Haitao


    The Parlung Zangbo Basin in the southeastern Tibet Plateau is affected by the summer monsoon from the Indian Ocean, which produces large rainfall gradients in the basin. Rainfall data during 2012-2015 from five new meteorological stations are used to analyse the rainfall characteristics. The daily rainfall, rainfall duration, mean rainfall intensity, and peak rainfall intensity are consistent, but sometimes contrasting. For example, these values decrease with increasing altitude, and the gradient is large downstream and small upstream, respectively. Moreover, the rainfall intensity peaks between 01:00 and 06:00 and increases during the afternoon. Based on the analysis of 14 debris flow cases in the basin, differences in the rainfall threshold differ depending on the location as sediment varieties. The sediment in the middle portions of the basin is wet and well structured; thus, long-duration, high-intensity rainfall is required to generate debris flows. Ravels in the upstream area are arid and not well structured, and short-duration rainfall is required to trigger debris flows. Between the above two locations, either long-duration, low-intensity rainfall or short-duration, high-intensity rainfall could provoke debris flows. Clearly, differences in rainfall characteristics and rainfall thresholds that are associated with the location must be considered in debris flow monitoring and warnings.

  17. High yielding tropical energy crops for bioenergy production: Effects of plant components, harvest years and locations on biomass composition. (United States)

    Surendra, K C; Ogoshi, Richard; Zaleski, Halina M; Hashimoto, Andrew G; Khanal, Samir Kumar


    The composition of lignocellulosic feedstock, which depends on crop type, crop management, locations and plant parts, significantly affects the conversion efficiency of biomass into biofuels and biobased products. Thus, this study examined the composition of different parts of two high yielding tropical energy crops, Energycane and Napier grass, collected across three locations and years. Significantly higher fiber content was found in the leaves of Energycane than stems, while fiber content was significantly higher in the stems than the leaves of Napier grass. Similarly, fiber content was higher in Napier grass than Energycane. Due to significant differences in biomass composition between the plant parts within a crop type, neither biological conversion, including anaerobic digestion, nor thermochemical pretreatment alone is likely to efficiently convert biomass components into biofuels and biobased products. However, combination of anaerobic digestion with thermochemical conversion technologies could efficiently utilize biomass components in generating biofuels and biobased products. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. High density of tree-cavities and snags in tropical dry forest of western Mexico raises questions for a latitudinal gradient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leopoldo Vázquez

    Full Text Available It has been suggested that a latitudinal gradient exists of a low density of snags and high density of naturally-formed tree-cavities in tropical vs. temperate forests, though few cavities may have characteristics suitable for nesting by birds. We determined snag and cavity density, characteristics, and suitability for birds in a tropical dry forest biome of western Mexico, and evaluated whether our data fits the trend of snag and cavity density typically found in tropical moist and wet forests. We established five 0.25-ha transects to survey and measure tree-cavities and snags in each of three vegetation types of deciduous, semi-deciduous, and mono-dominant Piranhea mexicana forest, comprising a total of 3.75 ha. We found a high density of 77 cavities/ha, with 37 cavities suitable for birds/ha, where density, and characteristics of cavities varied significantly among vegetation types. Lowest abundance of cavities occurred in deciduous forest, and these were in smaller trees, at a lower height, and with a narrower entrance diameter. Only 8.6% of cavities were excavated by woodpeckers, and only 11% of cavities were occupied, mainly by arthropods, though 52% of all cavities were unsuitable for birds. We also found a high density of 56 snags/ha, with greatest density in deciduous forest (70 snags/ha, though these were of significantly smaller diameter, and snags of larger diameter were more likely to contain cavities. The Chamela-Cuixmala tropical dry forest had the highest density of snags recorded for any tropical or temperate forest, and while snag density was significantly correlated with mean snag dbh, neither latitude nor mean dbh predicted snag density in ten forest sites. The high spatial aggregation of snag and cavity resources in tropical dry forest may limit their availability, particularly for large-bodied cavity adopters, and highlights the importance of habitat heterogeneity in providing resources for primary and secondary cavity-nesters.

  19. High density of tree-cavities and snags in tropical dry forest of western Mexico raises questions for a latitudinal gradient. (United States)

    Vázquez, Leopoldo; Renton, Katherine


    It has been suggested that a latitudinal gradient exists of a low density of snags and high density of naturally-formed tree-cavities in tropical vs. temperate forests, though few cavities may have characteristics suitable for nesting by birds. We determined snag and cavity density, characteristics, and suitability for birds in a tropical dry forest biome of western Mexico, and evaluated whether our data fits the trend of snag and cavity density typically found in tropical moist and wet forests. We established five 0.25-ha transects to survey and measure tree-cavities and snags in each of three vegetation types of deciduous, semi-deciduous, and mono-dominant Piranhea mexicana forest, comprising a total of 3.75 ha. We found a high density of 77 cavities/ha, with 37 cavities suitable for birds/ha, where density, and characteristics of cavities varied significantly among vegetation types. Lowest abundance of cavities occurred in deciduous forest, and these were in smaller trees, at a lower height, and with a narrower entrance diameter. Only 8.6% of cavities were excavated by woodpeckers, and only 11% of cavities were occupied, mainly by arthropods, though 52% of all cavities were unsuitable for birds. We also found a high density of 56 snags/ha, with greatest density in deciduous forest (70 snags/ha), though these were of significantly smaller diameter, and snags of larger diameter were more likely to contain cavities. The Chamela-Cuixmala tropical dry forest had the highest density of snags recorded for any tropical or temperate forest, and while snag density was significantly correlated with mean snag dbh, neither latitude nor mean dbh predicted snag density in ten forest sites. The high spatial aggregation of snag and cavity resources in tropical dry forest may limit their availability, particularly for large-bodied cavity adopters, and highlights the importance of habitat heterogeneity in providing resources for primary and secondary cavity-nesters.

  20. The effect of time of day on cold water ingestion by high-level swimmers in a tropical climate. (United States)

    Hue, Olivier; Monjo, Roland; Lazzaro, Marc; Baillot, Michelle; Hellard, Philippe; Marlin, Laurent; Jean-Etienne, A


    The authors tested the effect of cold water ingestion during high-intensity training in the morning vs the evening on both core temperature (TC) and thermal perceptions of internationally ranked long-distance swimmers during a training period in a tropical climate. Nine internationally ranked long-distance swimmers (5 men and 4 women) performed 4 randomized training sessions (2 in the evening and 2 in the morning) with 2 randomized beverages with different temperatures for 3 consecutive days. After a standardized warm-up of 1000 m, the subjects performed a standardized training session that consisted of 10 x 100 m (start every 1'20″) at a fixed velocity. The swimmers were then followed for the next 3000 m of the training schedule. Heart rate (HR) was continuously monitored during the 10 x 100 m, whereas TC, thermal comfort, and thermal sensation (TS) were measured before and after each 1000-m session. Before and after each 1000 m, the swimmers were asked to drink 190 mL of neutral (26.5 ± 2.5°C) or cold (1.3 ± 0.3°C) water packaged in standardized bottles. Results demonstrated that cold water ingestion induced a significant effect on TC, with a pronounced decrease in the evening, resulting in significantly lower mean TC and lower mean delta TC in evening cold (EC) than in evening neutral (EN), concomitant with significantly lower TS in EC than in EN and a significant effect on exercise HR. Moreover, although TC increased significantly with time in MN, MC, and EN, TC was stabilized during exercise in EC. To conclude, we demonstrate that a cold beverage had a significant effect on TC, TS, and HR during training in high-level swimmers in a tropical climate, especially during evening training.

  1. A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part I: Interannual variability (United States)

    Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas Pappas; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew George; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang


    Interannual rainfall variability in China affects agriculture, infrastructure and water resource management. To improve its understanding and prediction, many studies have associated precipitation variability with particular causes for specific seasons and regions. Here, a consistent and objective method, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis, is applied to 1951-2007 high-resolution precipitation observations over China in all seasons. Instead of maximizing the explained space-time variance, the method identifies regions in China that best explain the temporal variability in domain-averaged rainfall. The EOT method is validated by the reproduction of known relationships to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): high positive correlations with ENSO are found in eastern China in winter, along the Yangtze River in summer, and in southeast China during spring. New findings include that wintertime rainfall variability along the southeast coast is associated with anomalous convection over the tropical eastern Atlantic and communicated to China through a zonal wavenumber-three Rossby wave. Furthermore, spring rainfall variability in the Yangtze valley is related to upper-tropospheric midlatitude perturbations that are part of a Rossby wave pattern with its origin in the North Atlantic. A circumglobal wave pattern in the northern hemisphere is also associated with autumn precipitation variability in eastern areas. The analysis is objective, comprehensive, and produces timeseries that are tied to specific locations in China. This facilitates the interpretation of associated dynamical processes, is useful for understanding the regional hydrological cycle, and allows the results to serve as a benchmark for assessing general circulation models.

  2. Characterizing rainfall parameters which influence erosivity in southeastern Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obi, M.E.; Salako, F.K.


    An investigation was carried out to characterize some selected parameters which influence rainfall erosivity in southeastern Nigeria. Rainfall amount, distribution, duration, intensity, storm types, energy loads and frequency of rain events in the region were studied using data from stations located in three major agroecological zones. Raindrop size and detaching capacity were evaluated in one of the stations for two months. The mean annual rainfall erosivity values for southeastern Nigeria point to the fact that rainfall tend to be highly erosive. 25 refs, 6 figs, 8 tabs

  3. Environmental management of a highly impacted, urbanized tropical estuary: rehabilitation and restoration (United States)

    Thorhaug, A.


    The principles of the dynamics and interrelationships within the dominant subtropical and tropical Caribbean seagrass community have been studied previously before, during, and after impact. From these and scores of observations of damage and recovery patterns in Thalassia ecosystems, a sense of management recovery strategy has emerged. Artificial restoring of Thalassia testudinum seeds into areas cut off from stock (fruit, seeds) appeared feasible on a large scale after the Turkey Point (Biscayne Bay, Miami, Florida) restoration and test sampling throughout North Biscayne Bay. Two large-scale seeding attempts were made; after 11 months they compared favorably with Turkey Point specimens with regard to growth parameters, despite the turbidity and other persistent pollution. Thus, the possible areas in which Thalassia seed restoration can be used has increased to include estuaries of multiple impact still in various stages of recovery after physical and sewage pollution. This technique should be especially useful to “developing” nations where important nearshore fisheries nurseries based on Thalassia ecosystems have been heavily damaged and now lie barren. Man's impact on the estuary where seed restoration was attempted includes the following activities: 50% of the bay bottom directly dredged or filled (leaving much unconsolidated sediment); 50 million gallons of domestic waste dumped directly into a low flushing part of the bay for 20 years; seven major causeways transecting the bay, restricting circulation and flushing; two artificial inlets made into navigational channels; freshwater sheet flow drastically changed due to channelization by flood-control canals; urban runoff from a million people entering the bay. Most of the impacts have now abated; however, their long-term effects remain.

  4. Propagation Measurement on Earth-Sky Signal Effects for High Speed Train Satellite Channel in Tropical Region at Ku-Band

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulmajeed H. J. Al-Jumaily


    Full Text Available Recent advances in satellite communication technologies in the tropical regions have led to significant increase in the demand for services and applications that require high channel quality for mobile satellite terminals. Determination and quantification of these requirements are important to optimize service quality, particularly in the Malaysian region. Moreover, the tests on current satellite propagation models were carried out at temperate regions whose environmental characteristics are much different from those in Malaysia. This difference renders these propagation models inapplicable and irrelevant to tropical regions in general. This paper presents the link characteristics observations and performance analysis with propagation measurements done in tropical region to provide an accurate database regarding rain and power arches supply (PAs attenuations in the tropics for mobile scenarios. Hence, an extension for improving the performance assessment and analysis of satellite/transmission has been achieved. The Malaysia propagation measurement for mobile scenario (Malaysia-PMMS enables first-hand coarse estimation and attenuation analysis, because the attenuation resulting from rain and PAs becomes easily amenable for measurement. Parallel to that, the measured attenuation has been compared with that of the simulated output at noise floor level. The underlying analytical tool is validated by measurements specific at tropical region, for dynamic model of mobile satellite links operating at higher than 10 GHz.

  5. Hurricane Agnes rainfall and floods, June-July 1972 (United States)

    Bailey, James F.; Patterson, James Lee; Paulhus, Joseph Louis Hornore


    Hurricane Agnes originated in the Caribbean Sea region in mid-June. Circulation barely reached hurricane intensity for a brief period in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm crossed the Florida Panhandle coastline on June 19, 1972, and followed an unusually extended overland trajectory combining with an extratropical system to bring very heavy rain from the Carolinas northward to New York. This torrential rain followed the abnormally wet May weather in the Middle Atlantic States and set the stage for the subsequent major flooding. The record-breaking floods occurred in the Middle Atlantic States in late June and early July 1972. Many streams in the affected area experienced peak discharges several times the previous maxima of record. Estimated recurrence intervals of peak flows at many gaging stations on major rivers and their tributaries exceeded 100 years. The suspended-sediment concentration and load of most flooded streams were also unusually high. The widespread flooding from this storm caused Agnes to be called the most destructive hurricane in United States history, claiming 117 lives and causing damage estimated at $3.1 billion in 12 States. Damage was particularly high in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia. The detailed life history of Hurricane Agnes, including the tropical depression and tropical storm stages, is traced. Associated rainfalls are analyzed and compared with climatologic recurrence values. These are followed by a detailed description of the flood and streamflows of each affected basin. A summary of peak stages and discharges and comparison data for previous floods at 989 stations are presented. Deaths and flood damage estimates are compiled.

  6. Impacts of Tropical Forest Disturbance Upon Avifauna on a Small Island with High Endemism: Implications for Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Thomas


    Full Text Available Tropical forests are rapidly being lost across Southeast Asia and this is predicted to have severe implications for many of the region′s bird species. However, relationships between forest disturbance and avifaunal assemblages remain poorly understood, particularly on small island ecosystems such as those found in the biodiversity ′hotspot′ of Wallacea. This study examines how avifaunal richness varies across a disturbance gradient in a forest reserve on Buton Island, southeast Sulawesi. Particular emphasis is placed upon examining responses in endemic and red-listed species with high conservation importance. Results indicate that overall avian richness increases between primary and 30-year-old regenerating secondary forest and then decreases through disturbed secondary forest, but is highest in cleared farmland. However, high species richness in farmland does not signify high species distinctiveness; bird community composition here differs significantly from that found in forest sites, and is poor in supporting forest specialists and endemic species. Certain large-bodied endemics such as the Knobbed Hornbill (Rhyticeros cassidix appear to be sensitive to moderate disturbance, with populations occurring at greatest density within primary forest. However, overall endemic species richness, as well as that of endemic frugivores and insectivores, is similar in primary and secondary forest types. Results indicate that well-established secondary forest in particular has an important role in supporting species with high conservational importance, possessing community composition similar to that found in primary forest and supporting an equally high richness of endemic species.

  7. Potential Predictability and Prediction Skill for Southern Peru Summertime Rainfall (United States)

    WU, S.; Notaro, M.; Vavrus, S. J.; Mortensen, E.; Block, P. J.; Montgomery, R. J.; De Pierola, J. N.; Sanchez, C.


    The central Andes receive over 50% of annual climatological rainfall during the short period of January-March. This summertime rainfall exhibits strong interannual and decadal variability, including severe drought events that incur devastating societal impacts and cause agricultural communities and mining facilities to compete for limited water resources. An improved seasonal prediction skill of summertime rainfall would aid in water resource planning and allocation across the water-limited southern Peru. While various underlying mechanisms have been proposed by past studies for the drivers of interannual variability in summertime rainfall across southern Peru, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), and extratropical forcings, operational forecasts continue to be largely based on rudimentary ENSO-based indices, such as NINO3.4, justifying further exploration of predictive skill. In order to bridge this gap between the understanding of driving mechanisms and the operational forecast, we performed systematic studies on the predictability and prediction skill of southern Peru summertime rainfall by constructing statistical forecast models using best available weather station and reanalysis datasets. At first, by assuming the first two empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of summertime rainfall are predictable, the potential predictability skill was evaluated for southern Peru. Then, we constructed a simple regression model, based on the time series of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and a more advanced Linear Inverse Model (LIM), based on the EOFs of tropical ocean SSTs and large-scale atmosphere variables from reanalysis. Our results show that the LIM model consistently outperforms the more rudimentary regression models on the forecast skill of domain averaged precipitation index and individual station indices. The improvement of forecast correlation skill ranges from 10% to over 200% for different

  8. ECOENVELOPES R&D. Passive architectural envelopes high thermal performance and low environmental impact for tropical geoclimatic zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varini, C.


    Full Text Available “Ecoenvelopes” is about the development of building envelope solutions for tropical humid climates involving passive control of thermal gains on their surfaces, allowing for better internal conditions and comfort without the use of thermal machines. Environmental principles, design, and technological aspects are specifically defined based on the peculiar conditions (geo-climatic, technological, of biodiversity, economic and anthropic present in the Colombian low altitude regions, marked by constant high temperatures. Thermal and CFD simulations orient the process of experimental verification in a permanent laboratory counting on partnerships and available know-how.“Ecoenvolventes” plantea el desarrollo de soluciones de envolventes arquitectónicas para clima tropical húmedo, que permiten el control pasivo de las ganancias térmicas en sus superficies permitiendo el mejoramiento de las condiciones internas e generar condiciones de confort sin el uso de máquinas térmicas. Principios, diseño, tecnologías y aspectos medioambientales son expresamente definidos en función de las peculiares condiciones (e.i. geo-climáticas, tecnológicas, de biodiversidad, económicas y antrópicas presentes en las regiones colombianas con baja altitud, caracterizadas por altas temperaturas a lo largo de todo el año. Simulaciones térmicas y CFD orientan el proceso de verificación experimental en un laboratorio permanente contando con convenios con empresas locales y know-how disponible in situ.

  9. A Stochastic Fractional Dynamics Model of Rainfall Statistics (United States)

    Kundu, Prasun; Travis, James


    Rainfall varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, that allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is designed to faithfully reflect the scale dependence and is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and times scales. The main restriction is the assumption that the statistics of the precipitation field is spatially homogeneous and isotropic and stationary in time. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and in Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to the second moment statistics of the radar data. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well without any further adjustment. Some data sets containing periods of non-stationary behavior that involves occasional anomalously correlated rain events, present a challenge for the model.

  10. Astronomical tuning of long pollen records reveals the dynamic history of montane biomes and lake levels in the tropical high Andes during the Quaternary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torres, V.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Lourens, L.; Tzedakis, P.C.


    Long pollen records from two sediment cores of the basin of Bogotá (Colombia) are presented, reflecting the dynamic history of environmental and vegetation changes in the tropical high Andes during the Quaternary. An astronomically tuned age model has been developed by using the visual correlation

  11. High-resolution model-projected changes in mid-tropospheric closed-lows and extreme rainfall events over southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, CJ


    Full Text Available Mid-tropospheric closed-lows (cold-core cut-off lows and warm-core tropical lows) are important rain producing weather systems for the southern Africa region. Over South Africa, most wide-spread flood events are caused by these systems...

  12. Using high resolution satellite multi-temporal interferometry for landslide hazard detection in tropical environments: the case of Haiti (United States)

    Wasowski, Janusz; Nutricato, Raffaele; Nitti, Davide Oscar; Bovenga, Fabio; Chiaradia, Maria Teresa; Piard, Boby Emmanuel; Mondesir, Philemon


    Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) multi-temporal interferometry (MTI) is one of the most promising satellite-based remote sensing techniques for fostering new opportunities in landslide hazard detection and assessment. MTI is attractive because it can provide very precise quantitative information on slow slope displacements of the ground surface over huge areas with limited vegetation cover. Although MTI is a mature technique, we are only beginning to realize the benefits of the high-resolution imagery that is currently acquired by the new generation radar satellites (e.g., COSMO-SkyMed, TerraSAR-X). In this work we demonstrate the potential of high resolution X-band MTI for wide-area detection of slope instability hazards even in tropical environments that are typically very harsh (eg. coherence loss) for differential interferometry applications. This is done by presenting an example from the island of Haiti, a tropical region characterized by dense and rapidly growing vegetation, as well as by significant climatic variability (two rainy seasons) with intense precipitation events. Despite the unfavorable setting, MTI processing of nearly 100 COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) mages (2011-2013) resulted in the identification of numerous radar targets even in some rural (inhabited) areas thanks to the high resolution (3 m) of CSK radar imagery, the adoption of a patch wise processing SPINUA approach and the presence of many man-made structures dispersed in heavily vegetated terrain. In particular, the density of the targets resulted suitable for the detection of some deep-seated and shallower landslides, as well as localized, very slow slope deformations. The interpretation and widespread exploitation of high resolution MTI data was facilitated by Google EarthTM tools with the associated high resolution optical imagery. Furthermore, our reconnaissance in situ checks confirmed that MTI results provided useful information on landslides and marginally stable slopes that can represent a

  13. Intraspecific variation in cadmium tolerance and accumulation of a high-biomass tropical tree Averrhoa carambola L.: implication for phytoextraction. (United States)

    Dai, Zi-yun; Shu, Wen-sheng; Liao, Bin; Wan, Cai-yun; Li, Jin-tian


    Averrhoa carambola L., a high-biomass tropical tree, has recently been shown to be a strong accumulator of cadmium (Cd) and has great potential for Cd phytoextraction. In the present study, field studies and a controlled-environment experiment were combined to establish the extent of variation in Cd tolerance and accumulation at the cultivar level using 14 to 19 cultivars of A. carambola. The results indicated that all cultivars tested could accumulate Cd at high but different levels, and that Cd tolerance also varied greatly between these cultivars. It is confirmed that the high Cd tolerance and accumulation capacity are species-level and constitutional traits in A. carambola. However, no correlation was detected between tolerance index and accumulation of Cd in different cultivars, suggesting that the two traits are independent in this woody Cd accumulator. More importantly, cultivar Wuchuan Sweet (WCT) was shown to have the highest Cd-extraction potential; it yielded a high shoot biomass of 30 t ha(-1) in 230 d, and extracted 330 g ha(-1) Cd in the aerial tissues grown in Cd-contaminated field soil, which accounted for 12.8% of the total soil Cd in the top 20 cm of the soil profile.

  14. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino


    regional level. This is done for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy, i.e. the Flumendosa catchment, using climate model rainfall and atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project ( In doing so, we split the historical rainfall record of mean areal precipitation (MAP) in 15-year calibration and 45-year validation periods, and compare the historical rainfall statistics to those obtained from: a) Q-Q corrected climate model rainfall products, and b) synthetic rainfall series generated by the suggested downscaling scheme. To our knowledge, this is the first time that climate model rainfall and statistically downscaled precipitation are compared to catchment-averaged MAP at a daily resolution. The obtained results are promising, since the proposed downscaling scheme is more accurate and robust in reproducing a number of historical rainfall statistics, independent of the climate model used and the length of the calibration period. This is particularly the case for the yearly rainfall maxima, where direct statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs shows increased sensitivity to the length of the calibration period and the climate model used. The robustness of the suggested downscaling scheme in modeling rainfall extremes at a daily resolution, is a notable feature that can effectively be used to assess hydrologic risk at a regional level under changing climatic conditions. Acknowledgments The research project is implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General Secretariat for Research and Technology), and is co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Greek State. CRS4 highly acknowledges the contribution of the Sardinian regional authorities.

  15. Rainfall Climatology over Asir Region, Saudi Arabia (United States)

    Sharif, H.; Furl, C.; Al-Zahrani, M.


    Arid and semi-arid lands occupy about one-third of the land surface of the earth and support about one-fifth of the world population. The Asir area in Saudi Arabia is an example of these areas faced with the problem of maintaining sustainable water resources. This problem is exacerbated by the high levels of population growth, land use changes, increasing water demand, and climate variability. In this study, the characteristics of decade-scale variations in precipitation are examined in more detail for Asir region. The spatio-temporal distributions of rainfall over the region are analyzed. The objectives are to identify the sensitivity, magnitude, and range of changes in annual and seasonal evapotranspiration resulting from observed decade-scale precipitation variations. An additional objective is to characterize orographic controls on the space-time variability of rainfall. The rainfall data is obtained from more than 30 rain gauges spread over the region.

  16. Variability of the Tropical Ocean Surface Temperatures at Decadal-Multidecadal Timescales. Part I: The Atlantic Ocean. (United States)

    Mehta, Vikram M.


    Gridded time series from the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas were analyzed with a variety of techniques to identify spatial structures and oscillation periods of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variations at decadal timescales, and to develop physical interpretations of statistical patterns of decadal SST variations. Each time series was 110 yr (1882-1991) long. The tropical Atlantic SST variations were compared with decadal variations in a 74-yr-long (1912-85) north Nordeste Brazil rainfall time series and a 106-yr-long (1886-1991) tropical Atlantic cyclone activity index time series. The tropical Atlantic SST variations were also compared with decadal variations in the extratropical Atlantic SST.Multiyear to multidecadal variations in the cross-equatorial dipole pattern identified as a dominant empirical pattern of the tropical Atlantic SST variations in earlier and present studies are shown to be variations in the approximately north-south gradient of SST anomalies. It is also shown that there was no dynamical-thermodynamical, dipole mode of SST variations during the analysis period. There was a distinct decadal timescale (12-13 yr) of SST variations in the tropical South Atlantic, whereas no distinct decadal timescale was found in the tropical North Atlantic SST variations. Approximately 80% of the coherent decadal variance in the cross-equatorial SST gradient was `explained' by coherent decadal oscillations in the tropical South Atlantic SSTs. There were three, possibly physical, modes of decadal variations in the tropical Atlantic SSTs during the analysis period. In the more energetic mode of the North Atlantic decadal SST variations, anomalies traveled into the tropical North Atlantic from the extratropical North Atlantic along the eastern boundary of the basin. The anomalies strengthened and resided in the tropical North Atlantic for several years, then frequently traveled northward into the mid-high-latitude North Atlantic along

  17. A Metastatistical Approach to Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events (United States)

    Zorzetto, E.; Marani, M.


    The estimation of the average recurrence interval of intense rainfall events is a central issue for both hydrologic modeling and engineering design. These estimates require the inference of the properties of the right tail of the statistical distribution of precipitation, a task often performed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, estimated either from a samples of annual maxima (AM) or with a peaks over threshold (POT) approach. However, these approaches require long and homogeneous rainfall records, which often are not available, especially in the case of remote-sensed rainfall datasets. We use here, and tailor it to remotely-sensed rainfall estimates, an alternative approach, based on the metastatistical extreme value distribution (MEVD), which produces estimates of rainfall extreme values based on the probability distribution function (pdf) of all measured `ordinary' rainfall event. This methodology also accounts for the interannual variations observed in the pdf of daily rainfall by integrating over the sample space of its random parameters. We illustrate the application of this framework to the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis rainfall dataset, where MEVD optimally exploits the relatively short datasets of satellite-sensed rainfall, while taking full advantage of its high spatial resolution and quasi-global coverage. Accuracy of TRMM precipitation estimates and scale issues are here investigated for a case study located in the Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma, using a dense network of rain gauges for independent ground validation. The methodology contributes to our understanding of the risk of extreme rainfall events, as it allows i) an optimal use of the TRMM datasets in estimating the tail of the probability distribution of daily rainfall, and ii) a global mapping of daily rainfall extremes and distributional tail properties, bridging the existing gaps in rain gauges networks.

  18. Rainfall erosivity map for Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oduro Afriyie, K.


    Monthly rainfall data, spanning over a period of more than thirty years, were used to compute rainfall erosivity indices for various stations in Ghana, using the Fournier index, c, defined as p 2 /P, where p is the rainfall amount in the wettest month and P is the annual rainfall amount. Values of the rainfall erosivity indices ranged from 24.5 mm at Sunyani in the mid-portion of Ghana to 180.9 mm at Axim in the south western coastal portion. The indices were used to construct a rainfall erosivity map for the country. The map revealed that Ghana may be broadly divided into five major erosion risk zones. The middle sector of Ghana is generally in the low erosion risk zone; the northern sector is in the moderate to severe erosion risk zone, while the coastal sector is in the severe to extreme severe erosion risk zone. (author). 11 refs, 1 fig., 1 tab

  19. Raingauge-Based Rainfall Nowcasting with Artificial Neural Network (United States)

    Liong, Shie-Yui; He, Shan


    Rainfall forecasting and nowcasting are of great importance, for instance, in real-time flood early warning systems. Long term rainfall forecasting demands global climate, land, and sea data, thus, large computing power and storage capacity are required. Rainfall nowcasting's computing requirement, on the other hand, is much less. Rainfall nowcasting may use data captured by radar and/or weather stations. This paper presents the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on rainfall nowcasting using data observed at weather and/or rainfall stations. The study focuses on the North-East monsoon period (December, January and February) in Singapore. Rainfall and weather data from ten stations, between 2000 and 2006, were selected and divided into three groups for training, over-fitting test and validation of the ANN. Several neural network architectures were tried in the study. Two architectures, Backpropagation ANN and Group Method of Data Handling ANN, yielded better rainfall nowcasting, up to two hours, than the other architectures. The obtained rainfall nowcasts were then used by a catchment model to forecast catchment runoff. The results of runoff forecast are encouraging and promising.With ANN's high computational speed, the proposed approach may be deliverable for creating the real-time flood early warning system.

  20. Mycorrhizas and tropical soil fertility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cardoso, I.M.; Kuyper, T.W.


    Major factors that constrain tropical soil fertility and sustainable agriculture are low nutrient capital, moisture stress, erosion, high P fixation, high acidity with aluminium toxicity, and low soil biodiversity. The fragility of many tropical soils limits food production in annual cropping

  1. Quantifying rainfall-runoff relationships on the Mieso Hypo Calcic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mean annual rainfall at Mieso is 738 mm. The soil is a Hypo Calcic Vertisol with a high clay and silt content and is very susceptible to crusting. To achieve the objective of the study, rainfall-runoff measurements were made during 2003 and 2004 on 2 m x 2 m plots provided with a runoff measuring system, and replicated ...

  2. Small changes in climate can profoundly alter the dynamics and ecosystem services of tropical crater lakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Émilie Saulnier-Talbot

    Full Text Available African tropical lakes provide vital ecosystem services including food and water to some of the fastest growing human populations, yet they are among the most understudied ecosystems in the world. The consequences of climate change and other stressors on the tropical lakes of Africa have been informed by long-term analyses, but these studies have largely focused on the massive Great Rift Valley lakes. Our objective was to evaluate how recent climate change has altered the functioning and services of smaller tropical lakes, which are far more abundant on the landscape. Based on a paired analysis of 20 years of high-resolution water column data and a paleolimnological record from a small crater lake in western Uganda, we present evidence that even a modest warming of the air (∼0.9°C increase over 20 years and changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall can have significant consequences on the dynamics of this common tropical lake type. For example, we observed a significant nonlinear increase (R(2 adj  = 0.23, e.d.f. = 7, p<0.0001 in thermal stability over the past 20 years. This resulted in the expansion of anoxic waters and consequent deterioration of fish habitat and appears to have abated primary production; processes that may impair ecosystem services for a vulnerable human population. This study on a system representative of small tropical crater lakes highlights the far-reaching effects of global climatic change on tropical waters. Increased research efforts into tropical aquatic ecosystem health and the development of sound management practices are necessary in order to strengthen adaptive capabilities in tropical regions.

  3. Small changes in climate can profoundly alter the dynamics and ecosystem services of tropical crater lakes. (United States)

    Saulnier-Talbot, Émilie; Gregory-Eaves, Irene; Simpson, Kyle G; Efitre, Jackson; Nowlan, Tobias E; Taranu, Zofia E; Chapman, Lauren J


    African tropical lakes provide vital ecosystem services including food and water to some of the fastest growing human populations, yet they are among the most understudied ecosystems in the world. The consequences of climate change and other stressors on the tropical lakes of Africa have been informed by long-term analyses, but these studies have largely focused on the massive Great Rift Valley lakes. Our objective was to evaluate how recent climate change has altered the functioning and services of smaller tropical lakes, which are far more abundant on the landscape. Based on a paired analysis of 20 years of high-resolution water column data and a paleolimnological record from a small crater lake in western Uganda, we present evidence that even a modest warming of the air (∼0.9°C increase over 20 years) and changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall can have significant consequences on the dynamics of this common tropical lake type. For example, we observed a significant nonlinear increase (R(2) adj  = 0.23, e.d.f. = 7, pdeterioration of fish habitat and appears to have abated primary production; processes that may impair ecosystem services for a vulnerable human population. This study on a system representative of small tropical crater lakes highlights the far-reaching effects of global climatic change on tropical waters. Increased research efforts into tropical aquatic ecosystem health and the development of sound management practices are necessary in order to strengthen adaptive capabilities in tropical regions.

  4. On the determination of trends in rainfall

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Feb 19, 2008 ... it was decided to start from the inherent distribution of rainfall and develop a method for determining temporal .... first log-transformed to stabilise the variance of the time series ... the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filter had a very high probability of ... seasonality, the SKT test and a t-test adjusted for seasonality.

  5. Extreme flood event analysis in Indonesia based on rainfall intensity and recharge capacity (United States)

    Narulita, Ida; Ningrum, Widya


    Indonesia is very vulnerable to flood disaster because it has high rainfall events throughout the year. Flood is categorized as the most important hazard disaster because it is causing social, economic and human losses. The purpose of this study is to analyze extreme flood event based on satellite rainfall dataset to understand the rainfall characteristic (rainfall intensity, rainfall pattern, etc.) that happened before flood disaster in the area for monsoonal, equatorial and local rainfall types. Recharge capacity will be analyzed using land cover and soil distribution. The data used in this study are CHIRPS rainfall satellite data on 0.05 ° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution, and GSMap satellite rainfall dataset operated by JAXA on 1-hour temporal resolution and 0.1 ° spatial resolution, land use and soil distribution map for recharge capacity analysis. The rainfall characteristic before flooding, and recharge capacity analysis are expected to become the important information for flood mitigation in Indonesia.

  6. The Effect of Rainfall Patterns on the Mechanisms of Shallow Slope Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Suradi


    Full Text Available This paper examines how rainfall patterns affect the mechanisms of shallow slope failure. Numerical modelling, utilising the commercial software SVFlux and SVSlope, was carried out for a coupled analysis of rainfall-induced slope seepage and instability, with reference to a shallow landslide took place in Jabiru, Northern Territory (NT Australia in 2007. Rainfall events were varied in terms of pattern in this analysis. The results revealed that slopes are sensitive to rainfall pattern when the rainfall intensity has a high degree of fluctuation at around the same value as that of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Average rainfall intensity at the beginning of a rainfall period plays a primary role in determining the rate of decrease in initial factor of safety (Fi towards minimum factor of safety (Fmin. The effect of rainfall events on the slope instability is attributed to the amount of rainwater infiltration into slope associated with rainfall pattern.

  7. Multivariate Analysis of Erosivity Indices and Rainfall Physical Characteristics Associated with Rainfall Patterns in Rio de Janeiro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roriz Luciano Machado


    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The identification of areas with greater erosive potential is important for planning soil and water conservation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the physical characteristics of rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and their interactions with rainfall patterns through multivariate statistical analysis. Rainfall depth, kinetic energy, 30-min intensity (I30, duration of rainfall events, and the erosivity indices KE >10, KE >25, and EI30 in 36 locations (stations were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA and canonical discriminant analysis (CDA. Based on evaluation of the respective historical series of hyetographs, it was found that the advanced pattern occurs with highest frequency (51.8 %, followed by the delayed pattern (26.1 %, and by the intermediate pattern (22.1 %. All the evaluated rainfall characteristics have high response capacity in describing localities and rainfall patterns through PCA and CDA. In CDA, the Tukey test (p<0.05 applied to the scores of the first canonical discriminant function (CDF1 allowed differentiation of the stations with respect to the rainfall and erosivity characteristics for the advanced and delayed patterns. In the delayed pattern, the localities of Angra dos Reis, Campos, Eletrobrás, Manuel Duarte, Santa Isabel do Rio Preto, Tanguá, Teresópolis, Vila Mambucaba, and Xerém had the highest CDF1 scores, indicating that they have rainfalls with higher depth, I30, and duration because the standardized canonical coefficient (SCC and the correlation coefficient (“r” of these characteristics were positive. The rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro differ from one locality to another in relation to the advanced and delayed rainfall patterns, mainly due to the physical characteristics of rainfall depth, I30, and duration, indicating a higher risk of soil loss and runoff in the localities where rainfall events with the delayed pattern prevail.

  8. Persistence Characteristics of Australian Rainfall Anomalies (United States)

    Simmonds, Ian; Hope, Pandora


    Using 79 years (1913-1991) of Australian monthly precipitation data we examined the nature of the persistence of rainfall anomalies. Analyses were performed for four climate regions covering the country, as well as for the entire Australian continent. We show that rainfall over these regions has high temporal variability and that annual rainfall amounts over all five sectors vary in phase and are, with the exception of the north-west region, significantly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). These relationships were particularly strong during the spring season.It is demonstrated that Australian rainfall exhibits statistically significant persistence on monthly, seasonal, and (to a limited extent) annual time-scales, up to lags of 3 months and one season and 1 year. The persistence showed strong seasonal dependence, with each of the five regions showing memory out to 4 or 5 months from winter and spring. Many aspects of climate in the Australasian region are known to have undergone considerable changes about 1950. We show this to be true for persistence also; its characteristics identified for the entire record were present during the 1951--1980 period, but virtually disappeared in the previous 30-year period.Much of the seasonal distribution of rainfall persistence on monthly time-scales, particularly in the east, is due to the influence of the SOI. However, most of the persistence identified in winter and spring in the north-west is independent of the ENSO phenomenon.Rainfall anomalies following extreme dry and wet months, seasons and years (lowest and highest two deciles) persisted more than would be expected by chance. For monthly extreme events this was more marked in the winter semester for the wet events, except in the south-east region. In general, less persistence was found for the extreme seasons. Although the persistence of dry years was less than would have been expected by chance, the wet years appear to display persistence.

  9. Runoff Analysis Considering Orographical Features Using Dual Polarization Radar Rainfall (United States)

    Noh, Hui-seong; Shin, Hyun-seok; Kang, Na-rae; Lee, Choong-Ke; Kim, Hung-soo


    performed. Then hydrologic component of the runoff hydrographs, peak flows and total runoffs from the estimated rainfall and the observed rainfall are compared. The results show that hydrologic components have high fluctuations depending on storm rainfall event. Thus, it is necessary to choose appropriate radar rainfall data derived from the above radar rainfall transform formulas to analyze the runoff of radar rainfall. The simulated hydrograph by radar in the three basins of agricultural areas is more similar to the observed hydrograph than the other three basins of mountainous areas. Especially the peak flow and shape of hydrograph of the agricultural areas is much closer to the observed ones than that of mountainous areas. This result comes from the difference of radar rainfall depending on the basin elevation. Therefore we need the examination of radar rainfall transform formulas following rainfall event and runoff analysis based on basin elevation for the improvement of radar rainfall application. Acknowledgment This study was financially supported by the Construction Technology Innovation Program(08-Tech-Inovation-F01) through the Research Center of Flood Defence Technology for Next Generation in Korea Institute of Construction & Transportation Technology Evaluation and Planning(KICTEP) of Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs(MLTM)

  10. North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: historical simulations and future changes with the new high-resolution Arpege AGCM. (United States)

    Pilon, R.; Chauvin, F.; Palany, P.; Belmadani, A.


    A new version of the variable high-resolution Meteo-France Arpege atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) has been developed for tropical cyclones (TC) studies, with a focus on the North Atlantic basin, where the model horizontal resolution is 15 km. Ensemble historical AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)-type simulations (1965-2014) and future projections (2020-2080) under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario have been produced. TC-like vortices tracking algorithm is used to investigate TC activity and variability. TC frequency, genesis, geographical distribution and intensity are examined. Historical simulations are compared to best-track and reanalysis datasets. Model TC frequency is generally realistic but tends to be too high during the rst decade of the historical simulations. Biases appear to originate from both the tracking algorithm and model climatology. Nevertheless, the model is able to simulate extremely well intense TCs corresponding to category 5 hurricanes in the North Atlantic, where grid resolution is highest. Interaction between developing TCs and vertical wind shear is shown to be contributing factor for TC variability. Future changes in TC activity and properties are also discussed.

  11. Relationships Between Land Use and Stream Nutrient Concentrations in a Highly Urbanized Tropical Region of Brazil: Thresholds and Riparian Zones. (United States)

    Tromboni, F; Dodds, W K


    Nutrient enrichment in streams due to land use is increasing globally, reducing water quality and causing eutrophication of downstream fresh and coastal waters. In temperate developed countries, the intensive use of fertilizers in agriculture is a main driver of increasing nutrient concentrations, but high levels and fast rates of urbanization can be a predominant issue in some areas of the developing world. We investigated land use in the highly urbanized tropical State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We collected total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and inorganic nutrient data from 35 independent watersheds distributed across the State and characterized land use at a riparian and entire watershed scales upstream from each sample station, using ArcGIS. We used regression models to explain land use influences on nutrient concentrations and to assess riparian protection relationships to water quality. We found that urban land use was the primary driver of nutrient concentration increases, independent of the scale of analyses and that urban land use was more concentrated in the riparian buffer of streams than in the entire watersheds. We also found significant thresholds that indicated strong increases in nutrient concentrations with modest increases in urbanization reaching maximum nutrient concentrations between 10 and 46% urban cover. These thresholds influenced calculation of reference nutrient concentrations, and ignoring them led to higher estimates of these concentrations. Lack of sewage treatment in concert with urban development in riparian zones apparently leads to the observation that modest increases in urban land use can cause large increases in nutrient concentrations.

  12. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Variables: Assessing Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Kaleris, Vassilios


    Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, and the modeling parameterizations used, precipitation is one of the least well reproduced hydrologic variables by both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). This is especially the case at a regional level (where hydrologic risks are assessed) and at small temporal scales (e.g. daily) used to run hydrologic models. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings and assess the effect of climate change on rainfall statistics at hydrologically relevant scales, Langousis and Kaleris (2013) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables. The developed downscaling scheme was tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (, and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece, and was proved capable of reproducing several statistical properties of actual rainfall records, at both annual and seasonal levels. This was done solely by conditioning rainfall simulation on a vector of atmospheric predictors, properly selected to reflect the relative influence of upper-air variables on ground-level rainfall statistics. In this study, we apply the developed framework for conditional rainfall simulation using atmospheric data from different GCM/RCM combinations. This is done using atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (, and daily rainfall measurements for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy; i.e. the Flumendosa catchment. Since GCM/RCM products are suited to reproduce the local climatology in a statistical sense (i.e. in terms of relative frequencies), rather than ensuring a one-to-one temporal correspondence between observed and simulated fields (i.e. as is the case for ERA-interim reanalysis data), we proceed in three steps: a) we use statistical tools to establish a linkage between ERA-Interim upper-air atmospheric forecasts and

  13. Frequency and distribution of forest, savanna, and crop fires over tropical regions during PEM-Tropics A (United States)

    Olson, Jennifer R.; Baum, Bryan A.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Crawford, James H.


    Advanced very high resolution radiometer 1.1 km resolution satellite radiance data were used to locate active fires throughout much of the tropical region during NASA's Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE) Pacific Exploratory Mission-Tropics (PEM-Tropics A) aircraft campaign, held in September and October 1996. The spatial and temporal distributions of the fires in Australia, southern Africa, and South America are presented here. The number of fires over northern Australia, central Africa, and South America appeared to decrease toward the end of the mission period. Fire over eastern Australia was widespread, and temporal patterns showed a somewhat consistent amount of burning with periodic episodes of enhanced fire counts observed. At least one episode of enhanced fire counts corresponded to the passage of a frontal system which brought conditions conducive to fire to the region, with strong westerlies originating over the hot, dry interior continent. Regions that were affected by lower than normal rainfall during the previous wet season (e.g., northern Australia and southwestern Africa) showed relatively few fires during this period. This is consistent with a drought-induced decrease in vegetation and therefore a decreased availability of fuel for burning. Alternatively, a heavier than normal previous wet season along the southeastern coast of South Africa may have contributed to high fuel loading and an associated relatively heavy amount of burning compared to data from previous years.

  14. Acidity in rainfall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tisue, G.T.; Kacoyannakis, J.


    The reported increasing acidity of rainfall raises many interesting ecological and chemical questions. In spite of extensive studies in Europe and North America there are, for example, great uncertainties in the relative contributions of strong and weak acids to the acid-base properties of rainwater. Unravelling this and similar problems may require even more rigorous sample collection and analytical procedures than previously employed. Careful analysis of titration curves permits inferences to be made regarding chemical composition, the possible response of rainwater to further inputs of acidic components to the atmosphere, and the behavior to be expected when rainwater interacts with the buffers present in biological materials and natural waters. Rainwater samples collected during several precipitation events at Argonne National Laboratory during October and November 1975 have been analyzed for pH, acid and base neutralizing properties, and the ions of ammonium, nitrate, chloride, sulfate, and calcium. The results are tabulated

  15. On the Importance of High Frequency Gravity Waves for Ice Nucleation in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (United States)

    Jensen, Eric J.


    Recent investigations of the influence of atmospheric waves on ice nucleation in cirrus have identified a number of key processes and sensitivities: (1) ice concentrations produced by homogeneous freezing are strongly dependent on cooling rates, with gravity waves dominating upper tropospheric cooling rates; (2) rapid cooling driven by high-frequency waves are likely responsible for the rare occurrences of very high ice concentrations in cirrus; (3) sedimentation and entrainment tend to decrease ice concentrations as cirrus age; and (4) in some situations, changes in temperature tendency driven by high-frequency waves can quench ice nucleation events and limit ice concentrations. Here we use parcel-model simulations of ice nucleation driven by long-duration, constant-pressure balloon temperature time series, along with an extensive dataset of cold cirrus microphysical properties from the recent ATTREX high-altitude aircraft campaign, to statistically examine the importance of high-frequency waves as well as the consistency between our theoretical understanding of ice nucleation and observed ice concentrations. The parcel-model simulations indicate common occurrence of peak ice concentrations exceeding several hundred per liter. Sedimentation and entrainment would reduce ice concentrations as clouds age, but 1-D simulations using a wave parameterization (which underestimates rapid cooling events) still produce ice concentrations higher than indicated by observations. We find that quenching of nucleation events by high-frequency waves occurs infrequently and does not prevent occurrences of large ice concentrations in parcel simulations of homogeneous freezing. In fact, the high-frequency variability in the balloon temperature data is entirely responsible for production of these high ice concentrations in the simulations.

  16. Monthly variations of diurnal rainfall in north coast of West Java Indonesia during boreal winter periods (United States)

    Yulihastin, E.; Trismidianto


    Diurnal rainfall during the active monsoon period is usually associated with the highest convective activity that often triggers extreme rainfall. Investigating diurnal rainfall behavior in the north coast of West Java is important to recognize the behavioral trends of data leading to such extreme events in strategic West Java because the city of Jakarta is located in this region. Variability of diurnal rainfall during the period of active monsoon on December-January-February (DJF) composite during the 2000-2016 period was investigated using hourly rainfall data from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B41RT dataset. Through the Empirical Mode Decomposition method was appears that the diurnal rain cycle during February has increased significantly in its amplitude and frequency. It is simultaneously shows that the indication of extreme rainfall events is related to diurnal rain divergences during February shown through phase shifts. The diurnal, semidiurnal, and terdiurnal cycles appear on the characteristics of the DJF composite rainfall data during the 2000-2016 period.The significant increases in amplitude occurred during February are the diurnal (IMF 3) and terdiurnal (IMF 1) of rainfall cycles.

  17. Coexistence of Dunes and Humid Conditions at Titan's Tropics (United States)

    Radebaugh, Jani; Lorenz, R. D.; Lunine, J. I.; Kirk, R. L.; Ori, G. G.; Farr, T. G.; Malaska, M.; Le Gall, A.; Liu, Z. Y. C.; Encrenaz, P. J.; Paillou, P.; Hayes, A.; Lopes, R. M. C.; Turtle, E. P.; Wall, S. D.; Stofan, E. R.; Wood, C. A.; Cassini RADAR Team


    At Titan's equatorial latitudes there are tens of thousands of dunes, a landform typical of desert environments where sand does not become anchored by vegetation or fluids. Model climate simulations predict generally dry conditions at the equator and humid conditions near the poles of Titan, where lakes of methane/ethane are found. However, moderate relative methane humidity was observed at the Huygens landing site, recent rainfall was seen by Cassini ISS near the Belet Sand Sea, and a putative transient lake in Shangri-La was observed by Cassini VIMS, all of which indicate abundant fluids may be present, at least periodically, at Titan's equatorial latitudes. Terrestrial observations and studies demonstrate dunes can exist and migrate in conditions of high humidity. Active dunes are found in humid climates, indicating the movement of sand is not always prohibited by the presence of fluids. Sand mobility is related to precipitation, evaporation and wind speed and direction. If dune surfaces become wetted by rainfall or rising subsurface fluids, they can become immobilized. However, winds can act to dry the uppermost layers, freeing sands for saltation and enabling dune migration in wet conditions. Active dunes are found in tropical NE Brazil and NE Australia, where there are alternating dry and wet periods, a condition possible for Titan's tropics. Rising and falling water levels lead to the alteration of dune forms, mainly from being anchored by vegetation, but also from cementation by carbonates or clays. Studies of Titan's dunes, which could undergo anchoring of organic sediments by hydrocarbon fluids, could inform the relative strength of vegetation vs. cementation at humid dune regions on Earth. Furthermore, a comprehensive survey of dune morphologies near regions deemed low by SARTopo and stereo, where liquids may collect in wet conditions, could reveal if bodies of liquid have recently existed at Titan's tropics.

  18. Radar rainfall image repair techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen M. Wesson


    Full Text Available There are various quality problems associated with radar rainfall data viewed in images that include ground clutter, beam blocking and anomalous propagation, to name a few. To obtain the best rainfall estimate possible, techniques for removing ground clutter (non-meteorological echoes that influence radar data quality on 2-D radar rainfall image data sets are presented here. These techniques concentrate on repairing the images in both a computationally fast and accurate manner, and are nearest neighbour techniques of two sub-types: Individual Target and Border Tracing. The contaminated data is estimated through Kriging, considered the optimal technique for the spatial interpolation of Gaussian data, where the 'screening effect' that occurs with the Kriging weighting distribution around target points is exploited to ensure computational efficiency. Matrix rank reduction techniques in combination with Singular Value Decomposition (SVD are also suggested for finding an efficient solution to the Kriging Equations which can cope with near singular systems. Rainfall estimation at ground level from radar rainfall volume scan data is of interest and importance in earth bound applications such as hydrology and agriculture. As an extension of the above, Ordinary Kriging is applied to three-dimensional radar rainfall data to estimate rainfall rate at ground level. Keywords: ground clutter, data infilling, Ordinary Kriging, nearest neighbours, Singular Value Decomposition, border tracing, computation time, ground level rainfall estimation

  19. Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall (United States)

    Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri


    This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

  20. Behaviour of {sup 210}Po in fresh water ecosystem located in high rainfall area around proposed uranium mining site in India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jha, S.K. [Environmental Radioactivity measurement Section, Health Physics Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai-400085 (India)


    Several naturally occurring alpha or beta emitting radionuclides such as {sup 238}U, {sup 226}Ra, {sup 210}Pb, {sup 228}Ra and others are frequently dissolved in water supplies and their concentrations vary over an extremely wide range, mainly depending upon the amount of radio elements present in bedrock and soil with which the water comes in contact. In Meghalaya, Kylleng-Pyndensohiong, Mawthabah (KP Mawthabah Domiasiat) in West Khasi Hills District and adjoining region receives highest rainfall, and is situated near a proposed uranium mineralization zone, therefore these regions can be considered as potential sources of naturally occurring radionuclides of uranium series to the biosphere via different media. The population of the region depends mainly on different surface water sources for drinking water and also for agricultural purposes. Under these conditions some Po can be allochthonous i.e. coming with rainwater as water supply comes from the naturally formed small storage basin between the rocks which accumulate rainwater. Apart from cultivation, the occupation of the local tribal people is production of wood charcoal. This leads to excess deforestation, escalating the erosion of soil exposing the uranium bearing rock at some places, may enhance the natural radioactivity levels in nearby water bodies. The physico chemical parameter, Fe, Mn, gross alpha and {sup 210}Po activities were estimated for radiological assessment of surface water quality and behavior of {sup 210}Po. The measurement of {sup 210}Po was carried out using the {sup 208}Po tracers. A tracer recovery of 85% was observed in the case of biological samples. Recovery in the range of 90% to 95% was observed in the case of water sample. The {sup 210}Po concentration ranged from 10 to 64 mBq L{sup -1}. The lowest concentrations of {sup 210}Po were detected in water samples from Wakhaji (10±0.03) and the highest concentration of {sup 210}Po was observed in the water bodies of Nongtynger (64±0

  1. Limited tolerance by insects to high temperatures across tropical elevational gradients and the implications of global warming for extinction. (United States)

    García-Robledo, Carlos; Kuprewicz, Erin K; Staines, Charles L; Erwin, Terry L; Kress, W John


    The critical thermal maximum (CTmax), the temperature at which motor control is lost in animals, has the potential to determine if species will tolerate global warming. For insects, tolerance to high temperatures decreases with latitude, suggesting that similar patterns may exist along elevational gradients as well. This study explored how CTmax varies among species and populations of a group of diverse tropical insect herbivores, the rolled-leaf beetles, across both broad and narrow elevational gradients. Data from 6,948 field observations and 8,700 museum specimens were used to map the elevational distributions of rolled-leaf beetles on two mountains in Costa Rica. CTmax was determined for 1,252 individual beetles representing all populations across the gradients. Initial morphological identifications suggested a total of 26 species with populations at different elevations displaying contrasting upper thermal limits. However, compared with morphological identifications, DNA barcodes (cytochrome oxidase I) revealed significant cryptic species diversity. DNA barcodes identified 42 species and haplotypes across 11 species complexes. These 42 species displayed much narrower elevational distributions and values of CTmax than the 26 morphologically defined species. In general, species found at middle elevations and on mountaintops are less tolerant to high temperatures than species restricted to lowland habitats. Species with broad elevational distributions display high CTmax throughout their ranges. We found no significant phylogenetic signal in CTmax, geography, or elevational range. The narrow variance in CTmax values for most rolled-leaf beetles, especially high-elevation species, suggests that the risk of extinction of insects may be substantial under some projected rates of global warming.

  2. Greenhouse gas (CO2 and CH4) emissions from a high altitude hydroelectric reservoir in the tropics (Riogrande II, Colombia) (United States)

    Guérin, Frédéric; Leon, Juan


    reservoir occur through hotspot and hot moments and that mountainous reservoir located in the tropics could have emission factors as high as Amazonian reservoirs.

  3. High genetic diversity in a potentially vulnerable tropical tree species despite extreme habitat loss.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annika M E Noreen

    Full Text Available Over the last 150 years, Singapore's primary forest has been reduced to less than 0.2% of its previous area, resulting in extinctions of native flora and fauna. Remaining species may be threatened by genetic erosion and inbreeding. We surveyed >95% of the remaining primary forest in Singapore and used eight highly polymorphic microsatellite loci to assess genetic diversity indices of 179 adults (>30 cm stem diameter, 193 saplings (>1 yr, and 1,822 seedlings (<1 yr of the canopy tree Koompassia malaccensis (Fabaceae. We tested hypotheses relevant to the genetic consequences of habitat loss: (1 that the K. malaccensis population in Singapore experienced a genetic bottleneck and a reduction in effective population size, and (2 K. malaccensis recruits would exhibit genetic erosion and inbreeding compared to adults. Contrary to expectations, we detected neither a population bottleneck nor a reduction in effective population size, and high genetic diversity in all age classes. Genetic diversity indices among age classes were not significantly different: we detected overall high expected heterozygosity (He = 0.843-0.854, high allelic richness (R = 16.7-19.5, low inbreeding co-efficients (FIS = 0.013-0.076, and a large proportion (30.1% of rare alleles (i.e. frequency <1%. However, spatial genetic structure (SGS analyses showed significant differences between the adults and the recruits. We detected significantly greater SGS intensity, as well as higher relatedness in the 0-10 m distance class, for seedlings and saplings compared to the adults. Demographic factors for this population (i.e. <200 adult trees are a cause for concern, as rare alleles could be lost due to stochastic factors. The high outcrossing rate (tm = 0.961, calculated from seedlings, may be instrumental in maintaining genetic diversity and suggests that pollination by highly mobile bee species in the genus Apis may provide resilience to acute habitat loss.

  4. Estimating the Risk of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics Along the United States Gulf of Mexico Coastline Using Different Statistical Approaches (United States)

    Trepanier, J. C.; Ellis, K.; Jagger, T.; Needham, H.; Yuan, J.


    Tropical cyclones, with their high wind speeds, high rainfall totals and deep storm surges, frequently strike the United States Gulf of Mexico coastline influencing millions of people and disrupting off shore economic activities. Events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Isaac in 2012, can be physically different but still provide detrimental effects due to their locations of influence. There are a wide variety of ways to estimate the risk of occurrence of extreme tropical cyclones. Here, the combined risk of tropical cyclone storm surge and nearshore wind speed using a statistical copula is provided for 22 Gulf of Mexico coastal cities. Of the cities considered, Bay St. Louis, Mississippi has the shortest return period for a tropical cyclone with at least a 50 m s-1 nearshore wind speed and a three meter surge (19.5 years, 17.1-23.5). Additionally, a multivariate regression model is provided estimating the compound effects of tropical cyclone tracks, landfall central pressure, the amount of accumulated precipitation, and storm surge for five locations around Lake Pontchartrain in Louisiana. It is shown the most intense tropical cyclones typically approach from the south and a small change in the amount of rainfall or landfall central pressure leads to a large change in the final storm surge depth. Data are used from the National Hurricane Center, U-Surge, SURGEDAT, and Cooperative Observer Program. The differences in the two statistical approaches are discussed, along with the advantages and limitations to each. The goal of combining the results of the two studies is to gain a better understanding of the most appropriate risk estimation technique for a given area.

  5. High temperatures and absence of light affect the hatching of resting eggs of Daphnia in the tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thécia A.S.V. Paes


    Full Text Available Temperature and light are acknowledged as important factors for hatching of resting eggs. The knowledge of how they affect hatching rates of this type of egg is important for the comprehension of the consequences of warming waters in recolonization of aquatic ecosystems dependent on dormant populations. This study aimed at comparing the influence of different temperature and light conditions on hatching rates of Daphnia ambigua andDaphnia laevis resting eggs from tropical environments. The ephippia were collected in the sediment of three aquatic ecosystems, in southeastern Brazil. For each lake, the resting eggs were exposed to temperatures of 20, 24, 28 and 32 °C, under light (12 h photoperiod and dark conditions. The results showed that the absence of light and high temperatures have a negative influence on the hatching rates. Statistical differences for hatching rates were also found when comparing the studied ecosystems (ranging from 0.6 to 31%, indicating the importance of local environmental factors for diapause and maintenance of active populations.

  6. Prolonged control of replication-competent dual- tropic human immunodeficiency virus-1 following cessation of highly active antiretroviral therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salgado Maria


    Full Text Available Abstract Background While initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART during primary HIV-1 infection occasionally results in transient control of viral replication after treatment interruption, the vast majority of patients eventually experience a rebound in plasma viremia. Results Here we report a case of a patient who was started on HAART during symptomatic primary infection and who has subsequently maintained viral loads of + T cells. In addition, he does not have any known protective HLA alleles. Thus it is unlikely that he was destined to become a natural elite controller or suppressor. The mechanism of control of viral replication is unclear; he is infected with a CCR5/CXCR4 dual-tropic virus that is fully replication-competent in vitro. In addition, his spouse, who transmitted the virus to him, developed AIDS. The patient's CD4+ T cells are fully susceptible to HIV-1 infection, and he has low titers of neutralizing antibodies to heterologous and autologous HIV-1 isolates. Furthermore, his CD8+ T cells do not have potent HIV suppressive activity. Conclusion This report suggests that some patients may be capable of controlling pathogenic HIV-1 isolates for extended periods of time after the cessation of HAART through a mechanism that is distinct from the potent cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL mediated suppression that has been reported in many elite suppressors.

  7. Root-induced Changes in the Rhizosphere of Extreme High Yield Tropical Rice: 2. Soil Solution Chemical Properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitsuru Osaki


    Full Text Available Our previous studies showed that the extreme high yield tropical rice (Padi Panjang produced 3-8 t ha-1 without fertilizers. We also found that the rice yield did not correlate with some soil properties. We thought that it may be due to ability of root in affecting soil properties in the root zone. Therefore, we studied the extent of rice root in affecting the chemical properties of soil solution surrounding the root zone. A homemade rhizobox (14x10x12 cm was used in this experiment. The rhizobox was vertically segmented 2 cm interval using nylon cloth that could be penetrated neither root nor mycorrhiza, but, soil solution was freely passing the cloth. Three soils of different origins (Kuin, Bunipah and Guntung Papuyu were used. The segment in the center was sown with 20 seeds of either Padi Panjang or IR64 rice varieties. After emerging, 10 seedlings were maintained for 5 weeks. At 4 weeks after sowing, some chemical properties of the soil solution were determined. These were ammonium (NH4+, nitrate (NO3-, phosphorus (P and iron (Fe2+ concentrations and pH, electric conductivity (EC and oxidation reduction potential (ORP. In general, the plant root changed solution chemical properties both in- and outside the soil rhizosphere. The patterns of changes were affected by the properties of soil origins. The release of exudates and change in ORP may have been responsible for the changes soil solution chemical properties.

  8. Inter-annual rainfall variability in the eastern Antilles and coupling with the regional and intra-seasonal circulation (United States)

    Jury, Mark R.


    Climate variability in the eastern Antilles island chain is analyzed via principal component analysis of high-resolution monthly rainfall in the period 1981-2013. The second mode reflecting higher rainfall in July-October season between Martinique and Grenada is the focus of this study. Higher rainfall corresponds with a weakened trade wind and boundary current along the southern edge of the Caribbean. This quells the coastal upwelling off Venezuela and builds the freshwater plume east of Trinidad. There is corresponding upper easterly wind flow that intensifies passing tropical waves. During a storm event over the Antilles on 4-5 October 2010, there was inflow from east of Guyana where low salinity and high sea temperatures enable surplus latent heat fluxes. A N-S convective rain band forms ˜500 km east of the cyclonic vortex. Many features at the weather timescale reflect the seasonal correlation and composite difference maps and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of oceanic inter-basin transfers.

  9. Revisiting the iris effect of tropical cirrus clouds with TRMM and A-Train satellite data (United States)

    Choi, Yong-Sang; Kim, WonMoo; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Masunaga, Hirohiko; Kwon, Min-Jae; Jo, Hyun-Su; Huang, Lei


    Just as the iris of human eye controls the light influx (iris effect), tropical anvil cirrus clouds may regulate the Earth's surface warming by controlling outgoing longwave radiation. This study examines this possible effect with monthly satellite observations such as Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer cirrus fraction, and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes averaged over different tropical domains from March 2000 to October 2014. To confirm that high-level cirrus is relevant to this study, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization high cloud observations were also analyzed from June 2006 to December 2015. Our analysis revealed that the increase in sea surface temperature in the tropical western Pacific tends to concentrate convective cloud systems. This concentration effect very likely induces the significant reduction of both stratiform rain rate and cirrus fraction, without appreciable change in the convective rain rate. This reduction of stratiform rain rate and cirrus fraction cannot be found over its subregion or the tropical eastern Pacific, where the concentration effect of anvil cirrus is weak. Consistently, over the tropical western Pacific, the higher ratio of convective rain rate to total rain rate (i.e., precipitation efficiency) significantly correlates with warmer sea surface temperature and lower cirrus fraction. The reduced cirrus eventually increased outgoing longwave radiation to a greater degree than absorbed solar radiation. Finally, the negative relationship between precipitation efficiency and cirrus fraction tends to correspond to a low global equilibrium climate sensitivity in the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This suggests that tropical anvil cirrus clouds exert a negative climate feedback in strong association with precipitation efficiency.

  10. A Stalagmite record of Holocene Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon variability from the Australian tropics (United States)

    Denniston, Rhawn F.; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Polyak, Victor J.; Brown, Josephine R.; Asmerom, Yemane; Wanamaker, Alan D.; LaPointe, Zachary; Ellerbroek, Rebecca; Barthelmes, Michael; Cleary, Daniel; Cugley, John; Woods, David; Humphreys, William F.


    Oxygen isotopic data from a suite of calcite and aragonite stalagmites from cave KNI-51, located in the eastern Kimberley region of tropical Western Australia, represent the first absolute-dated, high-resolution speleothem record of the Holocene Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (IASM) from the Australian tropics. Stalagmite oxygen isotopic values track monsoon intensity via amount effects in precipitation and reveal a dynamic Holocene IASM which strengthened in the early Holocene, decreased in strength by 4 ka, with a further decrease from ˜2 to 1 ka, before strengthening again at 1 ka to years to levels similar to those between 4 and 2 ka. The relationships between the KNI-51 IASM reconstruction and those from published speleothem time series from Flores and Borneo, in combination with other data sets, appear largely inconsistent with changes in the position and/or organization of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Instead, we argue that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may have played a dominant role in driving IASM variability since at least the middle Holocene. Given the muted modern monsoon rainfall responses to most El Niño events in the Kimberley, an impact of ENSO on regional monsoon precipitation over northwestern Australia would suggest non-stationarity in the long-term relationship between ENSO forcing and IASM rainfall, possibly due to changes in the mean state of the tropical Pacific over the Holocene.

  11. Pollination biology in a tropical high-altitude grassland in Brazil: Interactions at the community level


    Freitas, L; Sazima, M


    Surveys of local assemblages of plants and their pollinators are among the most useful ways to evaluate specialization in pollination and to discuss the patterns of plant-pollinator interactions among ecosystems. The high-altitude grasslands from southeastern Brazil constitute diminutive island-like formations surrounded by montane rainforests. We registered the floral traits of 124 species from the Serra da Bricaina grasslands (about 60% of the animal-pollinated species of this flora), and d...

  12. Seedling transplants reveal species-specific responses of high-elevation tropical treeline trees to climate change. (United States)

    Rehm, Evan M; Feeley, Kenneth J


    The elevations at which tropical treelines occur are believed to represent the point where low mean temperatures limit the growth of upright woody trees. Consequently, tropical treelines are predicted to shift to higher elevations with global warming. However, treelines throughout the tropics have remained stationary despite increasing global mean temperatures. The goal of the study reported here was to build a more comprehensive understanding of the effects of mean temperature, low-temperature extremes, shading, and their interactions on seedling survival at tropical treelines. We conducted a seedling transplant study using three dominant canopy-forming treeline species in the southern tropical Andes. We found species-specific differences and contrasting responses in seedling survival to changes in mean temperature. The most abundant naturally occurring species at the seedling stage outside the treeline, Weinmannia fagaroides, showed a negative relationship between the survival of transplanted seedlings and mean temperature, the opposite of a priori expectations. Conversely, Clethra cuneata showed increased survival at higher mean temperatures, but survival also increased with higher absolute low temperatures and the presence of shade. Finally, the survival of Gynoxys nitida seedlings was insensitive to temperature but increased under shade. These findings show that multiple factors can determine the upper distributional limit of species forming the current tropical treeline. As such, predictions of future local and regional tropical treeline shifts may need to consider several factors beyond changes in mean temperature. If the treeline remains stationary and cloud forests are unable to expand into higher elevations, there may be severe species loss in this biodiversity hotspot.

  13. Buoyancy-Driven Ventilation Generated by the Double-Skin Façade of a High-Rise Building in Tropical Climate: Case Study Bandung, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aziiz Akhlish Diinal


    Full Text Available High-rise buildings in tropical region is identical to the use of mechanical Air Conditioning in massive scale. Nevertheless, there is an encouragement to high-rise buildings to reduce its energy consumptions, since they consume quite large amount of energy. This challenge can be overcome with various of strategies, one of them, by means of reducing the cooling load of mechanical Air Conditioning in high-rise building. Prospects come from the modern tall building design strategies, for example the use of double-skin façade to give addition of building skin which could provide indoor temperature protection from outside. Double-skin façade system has continued to increase in buildings in a tropical region such as in Indonesia. However, there is another potential of double skin façade, which is the possibility to increase the buoyancy effect in the air gap between the skin and building envelope. The possibility needs to be studied in order to give a proper way in designing double-skin façade of a high-rise building, especially on Bandung-Indonesia tropical climate. This paper explores the potential of double-skin façade in driving the air inside the façade to generate natural ventilation for a high-rise building in Bandung climate condition. Two parameters are used in exploring the buoyancy force, the width of double-skin façade and the temperature of the skin façade. In general, double-skin façade of a high-rise building in tropical climate can generate buoyancy driven ventilation for the building, it relates strongly to the distance between of the double-skin façade and the building envelope.

  14. Black Swan Tropical Cyclones (United States)

    Emanuel, K.; Lin, N.


    Virtually all assessments of tropical cyclone risk are based on historical records, which are limited to a few hundred years at most. Yet stronger TCs may occur in the future and at places that have not been affected historically. Such events lie outside the realm of historically based expectations and may have extreme impacts. Their occurrences are also often made explainable after the fact (e.g., Hurricane Katrina). We nickname such potential future TCs, characterized by rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective predictability, "black swans" (Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007). As, by definition, black swan TCs have yet to happen, statistical methods that solely rely on historical track data cannot predict their occurrence. Global climate models lack the capability to predict intense storms, even with a resolution as high as 14 km (Emanuel et al. 2010). Also, most dynamic downscaling methods (e.g., Bender et al. 2010) are still limited in horizontal resolution and are too expensive to implement to generate enough events to include rare ones. In this study, we apply a simpler statistical/deterministic hurricane model (Emanuel et al. 2006) to simulate large numbers of synthetic storms under a given (observed or projected) climate condition. The method has been shown to generate realistic extremes in various basins (Emanuel et al. 2008 and 2010). We also apply a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC; Luettich et al. 1992) to simulate the storm surges generated by these storms. We then search for black swan TCs, in terms of the joint wind and surge damage potential, in the generated large databases. Heavy rainfall is another important TC hazard and will be considered in a future study. We focus on three areas: Tampa Bay in the U.S., the Persian Gulf, and Darwin in Australia. Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge as it is surrounded by shallow water and low-lying lands, much of which may be inundated by a storm tide of 6 m. High surges are generated by storms with a broad

  15. [Limnology of high mountain tropical lake, in Ecuador: characteristics of sediments and rate of sedimentation]. (United States)

    Gunkel, Günter


    Equatorial high mountain lakes are a special type of lake occurring mainly in the South American Andes as well as in Central Africa and Asia. They occur at altitudes of a few thousand meters above sea level and are cold-water lakes (limnological study was therefore undertaken at Lake San Pablo, Ecuador, to analyze the basic limnological processes of the lake, which has a tendency for eutrophication. Sediment quality of San Pablo Lake is given under consideration of horizontal and vertical distribution using sediment cores. Significance of sediments for eutrophication process of lakes is demonstrated using phosphorus concentration of sediments as well as the phosphorus retention capacity of the sediments by ratio Fe/P. Dating of the sediments is done using 137Cs and 210Pb, but the activity of 137Cs in the sediment was very low nearly at the detection level. Sedimentation rate is determined to be 3.5 mm/year and the sediment cores represent about 110 years. P concentration of the sediments is high (approximately 5 g/kg dry substance), and P retention capacity by Fe is insufficient (Fe/P = 4). The sediment quality did not change significantly during the past decades, and the trophic state of San Pablo Lake was already less or more eutrophic 110 years ago. The contamination of the lake sediments by heavy metals is insignificant.

  16. Improved rainfall estimation over the Indian monsoon region by synergistic use of Kalpana-1 and rain gauge data


    Gairola, R. M.; Prakash, Satya; Pal, P. K.


    In this paper, an attempt has been made to estimate rainfall over the Indian monsoon region by the synergistic use of the geostationary Kalpana-1 satellite-derived INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) rainfall estimates and rain gauge data, using a successive correction method in order to further refine the operational IMSRA rainfall estimates. The successive correction method benefits from high spatial and temporal resolutions of the Kalpana-1 satellite and accurate rainfall estima...

  17. Evaluation of Satellite Rainfall Estimates for Drought and Flood Monitoring in Mozambique


    Carolien Toté; Domingos Patricio; Hendrik Boogaard; Raymond van der Wijngaart; Elena Tarnavsky; Chris Funk


    Satellite derived rainfall products are useful for drought and flood early warning and overcome the problem of sparse, unevenly distributed and erratic rain gauge observations, provided their accuracy is well known. Mozambique is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as major droughts and floods and thus, an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different rainfall products is valuable. Three dekadal (10-day) gridded satellite rainfall products (TAMSAT African Rainfall Cl...

  18. Tropical Deforestation. (United States)

    Raven, Peter H.


    Outlines the deforestation problem and some efforts for solving the problem. Considers the impact of population growth, poverty, and ignorance. Includes a discussion of the current rapid decline in tropical forests, the consequences of destruction, and an outlook for the future. (YP)

  19. Tree height and tropical forest biomass estimation (United States)

    M.O. Hunter; M. Keller; D. Vitoria; D.C. Morton


    Tropical forests account for approximately half of above-ground carbon stored in global vegetation. However, uncertainties in tropical forest carbon stocks remain high because it is costly and laborious to quantify standing carbon stocks. Carbon stocks of tropical forests are determined using allometric relations between tree stem diameter and height and biomass....

  20. Functional traits, drought performance, and the distribution of tree species in tropical forests of Ghana

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amissah, L.


    Tropical forests occur along a rainfall gradient where annual amount, the length and intensity of dry season vary and water availability shapes therefore strongly the distribution of tree species. Annual rainfall in West Africa has declined at a rate of 4% per decade, and climate change

  1. Drought tolerance of tropical tree species : functional traits, trade-offs and species distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Markesteijn, L.


    Bolivia, drought tolerance, shade tolerance, functional traits, trade-offs, ecophysiology, species distribution
    Tropical forests occur under rainfall regimes that vary greatly in the rainfall pattern and frequency and intensity of drought. Consequently water availability is

  2. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons over a tropical urban and a high altitude Himalayan Station in India: Temporal variation and source apportionment (United States)

    Ray, Debajyoti; Chatterjee, Abhijit; Majumdar, Dipanjali; Ghosh, Sanjay K.; Raha, Sibaji


    The temporal variations and major sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) intrinsic to PM10 were investigated over a tropical urban atmosphere on the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and for the first time over a high altitude urban atmosphere at eastern Himalaya in India. Samples were collected over Kolkata, a megacity and Darjeeling, a high altitude (2200 m asl) hill station in eastern India during the dry season (October 2015-May 2016). Fourteen PAHs were detected and quantified over Kolkata and Darjeeling during three consecutive seasons, viz., post-monsoon, winter and pre-monsoon. The total-PAHs concentrations were in the order of winter (78.08-146.71 ngm- 3) > post-monsoon (83.42-113.52 ngm- 3) > pre-monsoon (37.65-109.27 ngm- 3) at Kolkata, whereas post-monsoon (22.72-36.60 ngm- 3) > winter (8.52-28.43 ngm- 3) > pre-monsoon (5.45-13.34 ngm- 3) at Darjeeling. The observed seasonality of PAHs at Kolkata vis-a-vis Darjeeling has been explored in the light of anthropogenic activities, boundary layer dynamics and meteorological parameters such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation. Negative correlation was observed between total-PAHs and temperature, wind speed and solar radiation over Kolkata and Darjeeling. The positive matrix factorization (PMF) model calculations suggested that coal (26%), petrol (24%) and diesel (17%) combustion, commercial and household kitchens (18%) and municipal solid waste incineration (15%) are the possible contributors to the PM10 associated PAHs over Kolkata whereas diesel (37%), commercial and household kitchens (23%), coal (21%) and petrol (20%) are the possible PM10 associated PAH sources over Darjeeling.

  3. Sensitivity of tropical rainbelt over Africa and Middle East to dust shortwave absorption: Experiments using a high resolution AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Bangalath, Hamza Kunhu; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.


    Response of the rainbelt over Africa to dust direct radiative forcing has been an area of lively debate and is a subject of ongoing research. Previous modeling studies have contrasting results producing different amplitudes or even signs of responses. Uncertainties in the dust radiative forcing are thought to be the major cause of discrepancies in the simulated responses among various studies. The imaginary part of mineral dust shortwave refractive index, which defines the dust absorptivity, has a wide range of values estimated from various observational and modeling studies, as it depends on dust chemical composition and mineralogy. Balkanski et al. (2007) estimated dust shortwave refractive indices by assuming 3 different hematite contents, 0.9%, 1.5% and 2.7% by volume, which corresponds to inefficient, standard, and very efficient dust shortwave absorption, respectively. To investigate the sensitivity of the position and intensity of the tropical rainbelt over Africa and its extension to the Arabian Peninsula to dust shortwave absorption, we have conducted ensembles of numerical simulations for each of the three dust absorptivity scenarios using a high resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM), GFDL's High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), at a spatial resolution of 25 km. We found that the strength and the latitudinal extent of the rainbelt are very sensitive to dust shortwave absorption, as well as circulations at various spatiotemporal scales that drive the climate of the region. Reference: Balkanski, Y., M. Schulz, T. Claquin, and S. Guibert (2007), Reevaluation of mineral aerosol radiative forcings suggests a better agreement with satellite and AERONET data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 81 - 95.

  4. Cadmium tolerance and accumulation in cultivars of a high-biomass tropical tree (Averrhoa carambola) and its potential for phytoextraction. (United States)

    Li, J T; Liao, B; Lan, C Y; Ye, Z H; Baker, A J M; Shu, W S


    Averrhoa carambola is a high-biomass tropical tree that has been identified as a Cd accumulator. In the present study, field survey, pot, and hydroponic experiments were conducted to investigate the variation of Cd tolerance and accumulation in cultivars of A. carambola as well as its potential for phytoextraction. In the field survey, it was found that concentrations of Cd in aerial tissues of A. carambola varied greatly among sites and cultivars. The Cd bioconcentration factors (BCFs) and Cd removals by the field-grown A. carambola differed significantly among sites but not among cultivars. Nonetheless, all four carambola cultivars investigated were able to accumulate considerably high concentrations of Cd in their shoots, which indicated that the 4-yr-old carambola stands could remove 0.3 to 51.8% of the total Cd content in the top 20-cm soil layer. When cultured in Cd-spiked soils, the carambola cultivar Hua-Di always showed higher Cd tolerance than the other cultivars; however, this tendency was not confirmed by hydroponic experiment. The Cd BCFs of cultivar Thailand grown in soils with 6 and 12 mg Cd kg(-1) were highest among cultivars, whereas this trend was reversed at 120 mg Cd kg(-1) treatment. Nevertheless, the pot- and hydroponics-grown carambola cultivars generally showed higher capacities to tolerate and accumulate Cd, compared with the control species. The present results indicate that a strong ability to tolerate and accumulate Cd seems to be a trait at the species level in A. carambola, although some degree of variances in both Cd tolerance and accumulation exists among cultivars.

  5. High frequency of parasitic and viral stool pathogens in patients with active ulcerative colitis: report from a tropical country. (United States)

    Banerjee, Debabrata; Deb, Rachana; Dar, Lalit; Mirdha, Bijay R; Pati, Sunil K; Thareja, Sandeep; Falodia, Sushil; Ahuja, Vineet


    Diarrhoeal relapses in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) may be associated with enteric infections and its diagnosis may lessen avoidable exposure to corticosteroids and/or immunosuppressants. The purpose of this study was to assess the frequency of stool pathogens (parasitic and viral) in patients with active UC. This prospective cross-sectional study included 49 consecutive patients (32 M, 17 F, mean age 35.8+/-12 years) with active UC. Three stool samples were collected from each patient and examined for parasitic infection. Rectal biopsies were obtained during sigmoidoscopy to demonstrate cytomegalovirus (CMV) inclusion bodies and to conduct qualitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for CMV and herpes simplex virus (HSV) DNA detection. Median duration of illness was 3.9+/-3.7 years and 83.7% of the patients had moderate to severe disease. The prevalence of parasitic infections in UC was 12%. The organisms isolated were Strongyloides stercoralis in 4%, Ankylostoma duodenale in 4%, Cryptosporidium in 2% and Entamoeba histolytica in 2% of the patients. The prevalence of CMV and HSV in rectal biopsies using qualitative PCR was 8% and 10%, respectively. No predictive factor was identified with CMV superinfection in patients with active UC. In India there is a high prevalence of parasitic and viral infections in patients with active UC. The results of the study suggest that, in tropical countries with a known high prevalence of parasitic diseases, aggressive evaluation for parasitic and viral infections should be carried out, as early identification and prompt treatment of such infections can improve the clinical course of patients with active UC.

  6. Sensitivity of tropical rainbelt over Africa and Middle East to dust shortwave absorption: Experiments using a high resolution AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Bangalath, Hamza Kunhu


    Response of the rainbelt over Africa to dust direct radiative forcing has been an area of lively debate and is a subject of ongoing research. Previous modeling studies have contrasting results producing different amplitudes or even signs of responses. Uncertainties in the dust radiative forcing are thought to be the major cause of discrepancies in the simulated responses among various studies. The imaginary part of mineral dust shortwave refractive index, which defines the dust absorptivity, has a wide range of values estimated from various observational and modeling studies, as it depends on dust chemical composition and mineralogy. Balkanski et al. (2007) estimated dust shortwave refractive indices by assuming 3 different hematite contents, 0.9%, 1.5% and 2.7% by volume, which corresponds to inefficient, standard, and very efficient dust shortwave absorption, respectively. To investigate the sensitivity of the position and intensity of the tropical rainbelt over Africa and its extension to the Arabian Peninsula to dust shortwave absorption, we have conducted ensembles of numerical simulations for each of the three dust absorptivity scenarios using a high resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM), GFDL\\'s High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), at a spatial resolution of 25 km. We found that the strength and the latitudinal extent of the rainbelt are very sensitive to dust shortwave absorption, as well as circulations at various spatiotemporal scales that drive the climate of the region. Reference: Balkanski, Y., M. Schulz, T. Claquin, and S. Guibert (2007), Reevaluation of mineral aerosol radiative forcings suggests a better agreement with satellite and AERONET data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 81 - 95.

  7. Temporal characteristics of rainfall events under three climate types in Slovenia (United States)

    Dolšak, Domen; Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca


    Temporal rainfall distribution can often have significant influence on other hydrological processes such as runoff generation or rainfall interception. High-frequency rainfall data from 30 stations in Slovenia were analysed in order to improve the knowledge about the temporal rainfall distribution within a rainfall event. Using the pre-processed rainfall data Huff curves were determined and the binary shape code (BSC) methodology was applied. Although Slovenia covers only about 20,000 km2, results indicate large temporal and spatial variability in the precipitation pattern of the analysed stations, which is in agreement with the different Slovenian climate types: sub-Mediterranean, temperate continental, and mountain climate. Statistically significant correlation was identified between the most frequent BSC types, mean annual precipitation, and rainfall erosivity for individual rainfall stations. Moreover, different temporal rainfall distributions were observed for rainfall events with shorter duration (less than 12 h) than those with longer duration (more than 24 h). Using the analysis of the Huff curves it was shown that the variability in the Huff curves decreases with increasing rainfall duration. Thus, it seems that for shorter duration convective storms a more diverse temporal rainfall distribution can be expected than for the longer duration frontal precipitation where temporal rainfall distribution shows less variability.

  8. Colonic perforation with peritonitis in amoebiasis: a tropical disease with high mortality. (United States)

    Jain, Bhupendra Kumar; Garg, Pankaj Kumar; Kumar, Anjay; Mishra, Kiran; Mohanty, Debajyoti; Agrawal, Vivek


    Invasive colonic amoebiasis presents primarily with dysentery; colonic perforation occurs rarely. Cases of amoebic colonic perforations have been reported sporadically over the past 20 years. A retrospective study was done in the surgical unit of a tertiary care hospital in North India. The case records of those patients were reviewed who underwent exploratory laparotomy from January 2011 to September 2012 and were diagnosed with amoebic colonic perforation on histopathological examination. Details concerning the clinical presentation, investigations, intraoperative findings, operative procedures, and postoperative outcomes were retrieved. Amongst, a total of 186 emergency exploratory laparotomies carried out during the study, 15 patients of amoebic colonic perforation were identified. The median age of the patients was 42 years (IQR 32.0-58.0) and the male to female ratio was 13:2. Previous history of colitis was present in only 1 patient. The preoperative diagnosis was perforation peritonitis in 12 patients; and intussusception, intestinal obstruction and ruptured liver abscess in 1 patient each. Ten patients had single perforation while 5 had multiple colonic perforations. All the patients except one had perforations in the right colon. Bowel resection was performed depending upon the site and extent of the colon involved-right hemicolectomy (8), limited ileocolic resection (6) and sigmoidectomy (1). Bowel continuity could be restored only in 2 of the 15 patients and a stoma was constructed in the remaining 13 patients. The overall mortality rate was found to be 40% (6/15). Amoebic colonic perforation is associated with unusually high mortality.

  9. Study on High energy efficiency photovoltaic facility agricultural system in tropical area of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ge Zhiwu


    Full Text Available The photovoltaic facility agriculture is developing rapidly in recent years, but there are many problems brought out, even in some important demonstration projects, due to the lack of standards. In order to solve some of these problems, we set up a photovoltaic facilities agricultural system in Guilinyang University City, Haikou, China and make an in-depth study on the photovoltaic facility agricultural system and its related problems. In this paper we disclose some of the experimental results. We plant corianders under two kinds of solar cell panels and general double glass assembly already sold on the market. Experiments showed that the square format cell panels are much better than row type, and the next one is general double glass assembly sold on the market, the last is the case without any shelter. 30 days after planting, the height of coriander plants are 50mm, 30mm, 23mm and 20mm correspondingly. The two typical solar cell panels have gaps between cells, and can save much more energy and improve power generation efficiency, we arrange the panels at optimum tilted angle, and design the system as open structure to save more energy. The photovoltaic facilities agricultural system we set up in Guilinyang University City can achieve much high solar energy efficiency than others and has broad application prospects.

  10. A comparison of methods for determining soil water availability in two sites in Panama with similar rainfall but distinct tree communities (United States)

    Thomas A. Kursar; Bettina M. J. Engelbrecht; Melvin T. Tyree


    Plant productivity, distribution and diversity in tropical rain forests correlate with water availability. Water availability is determined by rainfall and also by the available water capacity of the soil. However, while rainfall is recognized as important, linkages between plant distribution and differences among soils in available water capacity have not been...

  11. Evaluation of remote-sensing-based rainfall products through predictive capability in hydrological runoff modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stisen, Simon; Sandholt, Inge


    SRFEs, Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique (CMORPH), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN). The best performing SRFE, CPC-FEWS, produced good results with values of R2NS between 0...

  12. Comparison of Adaline and Multiple Linear Regression Methods for Rainfall Forecasting (United States)

    Sutawinaya, IP; Astawa, INGA; Hariyanti, NKD


    Heavy rainfall can cause disaster, therefore need a forecast to predict rainfall intensity. Main factor that cause flooding is there is a high rainfall intensity and it makes the river become overcapacity. This will cause flooding around the area. Rainfall factor is a dynamic factor, so rainfall is very interesting to be studied. In order to support the rainfall forecasting, there are methods that can be used from Artificial Intelligence (AI) to statistic. In this research, we used Adaline for AI method and Regression for statistic method. The more accurate forecast result shows the method that used is good for forecasting the rainfall. Through those methods, we expected which is the best method for rainfall forecasting here.

  13. Zooplankton abundance, species composition and ecology of tropical high-mountain crater lake Wonchi, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fasil Degefu


    Full Text Available The highlands of Ethiopia represent some of the remnants of undisturbed aquatic ecosystems; they are however highly threatened by significant socio–economic developments and associated anthropogenic impacts. Lake Wonchi is one of the few remaining fairly pristine high–mountain crater lakes in the central highlands and has never been investigated in detail. We present a first study on zooplankton taxa composition, abundance and biomass conducted over more than one year including the underlying environmental drivers. The lake is basic (pH 7.9-8.9, dilute (specific conductivity 185-245 µS cm-1 and oligotrophic with mean trophic status index of 36. The zooplankton community composition showed low species richness comprising a total of fourteen taxa with six cladocerans, one copepod and seven rotifers. Simpson´s index of diversity with values between 0.6 and 0.8 pointed towards a homogenous taxa occurrence within the single sample units. The overall mean (±SD standing biomass of zooplankton was 62.02±25.76 mg dry mass m-3,which is low compared to other highland and rift valley lakes in Ethiopia. Cyclopoid copepods, in particular Thermocyclops ethiopiensis were the most abundant group and contributed 50% to the total zooplankton abundance followed by cladocerans (38% and rotifers (12%. Non-metric multi-dimensional scaling resulted in a 3-dimensional model, which revealed similar community composition on successive sampling dates except in December/January and May. Temperature, alkalinity, conductivity and nitrate-N had significant influence on this seasonal pattern. A weak, but significant positive correlation (r=0.482, N=20, P=0.037 between Chlorophyll a and zooplankton biomass mirrors a bottom-up effect of phytoplankton biomass on zooplankton dynamics. The zooplankton of Lake Wonchi displayed some degree of segregation along the epi– and metalimnion during this study, but diel vertical migration was not observed. The results show that fish

  14. Application of seasonal rainfall forecasts and satellite rainfall observations to crop yield forecasting for Africa (United States)

    Greatrex, H. L.; Grimes, D. I. F.; Wheeler, T. R.


    Rain-fed agriculture is of utmost importance in sub-Saharan Africa; the FAO estimates that over 90% of food consumed in the region is grown in rain-fed farming systems. As the climate in sub-Saharan Africa has a high interannual variability, this dependence on rainfall can leave communities extremely vulnerable to food shortages, especially when coupled with a lack of crop management options. The ability to make a regional forecast of crop yield on a timescale of months would be of enormous benefit; it would enable both governmental and non-governmental organisations to be alerted in advance to crop failure and could facilitate national and regional economic planning. Such a system would also enable individual communities to make more informed crop management decisions, increasing their resilience to climate variability and change. It should be noted that the majority of crops in the region are rainfall limited, therefore the ability to create a seasonal crop forecast depends on the ability to forecast rainfall at a monthly or seasonal timescale and to temporally downscale this to a daily time-series of rainfall. The aim of this project is to develop a regional-scale seasonal forecast for sub-Saharan crops, utilising the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). GLAM would initially be driven using both dynamical and statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide an initial estimate of crop yield. The system would then be continuously updated throughout the season by replacing the seasonal rainfall forecast with daily weather observations. TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates are used rather than rain-gauge data due to the scarcity of ground based observations. An important feature of the system is the use of the geo-statistical method of sequential simulation to create an ensemble of daily weather inputs from both the statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts and the satellite rainfall estimates. This allows a range of possible yield outputs to be

  15. Tropical cyclone disasters in the Gulf of Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suphat Vongvisessomjai


    Full Text Available The origin of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea is over a vast deep sea, southeast of the Philippines. The severetropical cyclones in summer with northerly tracks attack the Philippines, China, Korea and Japan, while the moderate ones inthe rainy season with northwesterly tracks pass Vietnam, Laos and northern Thailand. In October, November and December, the tropical cyclones are weakened and tracks shift to a lower latitude passing the Gulf of Thailand. Tropical cyclone disasters in the Gulf of Thailand due to strong winds causing storm surges and big waves or heavy rainfall over high mountains in causing floods and land slides result in moderate damages and casualties. Analyses are made of six decades of data of tropical cyclones from 1951-2006 having averaged numbers of 3 and 13 in Thailand and the South China Sea respectively. Detailed calculation of surges and wave heights of the 5 disastrous tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Thailand reveal that the Upper Gulf of Thailand with a limited fetch length of about 100 km in north/south direction and about 100 km width in the east/west direction, resulted in a limited maximum wave height of 2.3-2.5 m and maximum storm surge height of 1.2 m generated by Typhoon Vae (1952, while the east coast, with longer fetch lengthbut still limited by the existence of its shoreline, resulted in an increased maximum wave height of 4 m and maximum storm surge height of 0.6 m in the Upper Gulf of Thailand generated by Typhoon Linda (1997. These are the Probable Maximum Cyclones here.The southern shoreline, with unlimited fetch length on the east by tropical cyclones approaching from the South China Sea, generated maximum wave height of 6-11 m by Typhoon Gay (1989, resulting in more casualties and damages. Note that storm surges on the southern shorelines with steep slopes are small due to the short distance of shallow shorelines in receiving wind stresses for piling up sea levels. These disasters can be

  16. Behavioral Strategies of Lanternfishes (Family Myctophidae) in a High-Latitude Fjord and the Tropical Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Dypvik, Eivind


    The diel vertical migration (DVM) and feeding periodicity of myctophids (lanternfishes) were studied in the high-latitude Masfjorden, Norway, and the tropical Red Sea. In Masfjorden, a bottom-mounted echo sounder permitted continuous studies throughout the year, and revealed a diverse seasonal DVM behavior. During spring and summer, when zooplankton peaks in the epipelagic zone, migrating glacier lanternfish performed normal DVM (NDVM), ascending to the epipelagic zone during night and residing below ~200m during daytime. During autumn and winter, when Calanus overwinters between ~150–300 m, migrating glacier lanternfish mainly performed inverse DVM (IDVM), ascending to feed on Calanus in mid-waters during daytime. Non migrating (NoDVM) individuals were present all year below ~300 m in Masfjorden. In the Red Sea, where zooplankton has an epipelagic distribution, the whole population of skinnycheek lanternfish performed NDVM, feeding in the epipelagic zone at night, while residing at ~500–750 m during daytime. The warm waters of the Red Sea were hypothesized to limit the time individuals can stay in the mesopelagic zone without migrating to feed in the epipelagic layers. The DVM behavior of myctophids largely seemed to relate to the distribution of zooplankton, and it was hypothesized that NDVM will prevail with epipelagic distribution of prey, while IDVM and NoDVM are common in areas where zooplankton migrate seasonally to mesopelagic depths. Potential predators were continuously present, found to apparently attack glacier lanternfish, at mesopelagic depth in Masfjorden. Thus, myctophids are under threat of predation even at mesopelagic depth.

  17. River catchment rainfall series analysis using additive Holt-Winters method (United States)

    Puah, Yan Jun; Huang, Yuk Feng; Chua, Kuan Chin; Lee, Teang Shui


    Climate change is receiving more attention from researchers as the frequency of occurrence of severe natural disasters is getting higher. Tropical countries like Malaysia have no distinct four seasons; rainfall has become the popular parameter to assess climate change. Conventional ways that determine rainfall trends can only provide a general result in single direction for the whole study period. In this study, rainfall series were modelled using additive Holt-Winters method to examine the rainfall pattern in Langat River Basin, Malaysia. Nine homogeneous series of more than 25 years data and less than 10% missing data were selected. Goodness of fit of the forecasted models was measured. It was found that seasonal rainfall model forecasts are generally better than the monthly rainfall model forecasts. Three stations in the western region exhibited increasing trend. Rainfall in southern region showed fluctuation. Increasing trends were discovered at stations in the south-eastern region except the seasonal analysis at station 45253. Decreasing trend was found at station 2818110 in the east, while increasing trend was shown at station 44320 that represents the north-eastern region. The accuracies of both rainfall model forecasts were tested using the recorded data of years 2010-2012. Most of the forecasts are acceptable.

  18. Comparison of Satellite Rainfall Estimates and Rain Gauge Measurements in Italy, and Impact on Landslide Modeling

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    Mauro Rossi


    Full Text Available Landslides can be triggered by intense or prolonged rainfall. Rain gauge measurements are commonly used to predict landslides even if satellite rainfall estimates are available. Recent research focuses on the comparison of satellite estimates and gauge measurements. The rain gauge data from the Italian network (collected in the system database “Verifica Rischio Frana”, VRF are compared with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM products. For the purpose, we couple point gauge and satellite rainfall estimates at individual grid cells, evaluating the correlation between gauge and satellite data in different morpho-climatological conditions. We then analyze the statistical distributions of both rainfall data types and the rainfall events derived from them. Results show that satellite data underestimates ground data, with the largest differences in mountainous areas. Power-law models, are more appropriate to correlate gauge and satellite data. The gauge and satellite-based products exhibit different statistical distributions and the rainfall events derived from them differ. In conclusion, satellite rainfall cannot be directly compared with ground data, requiring local investigation to account for specific morpho-climatological settings. Results suggest that satellite data can be used for forecasting landslides, only performing a local scaling between satellite and ground data.

  19. NEXRAD Rainfall Data: Eureka, California (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 (WSR-88D) measurements were used to support AMSR-E rainfall validation efforts in Eureka, California,...

  20. Massive post-fire flowering events in a tropical mountain region of Brazil: high episodic supply of floral resources

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    Abel Augusto Conceição


    Full Text Available The species Vellozia sincorana L.B.Sm. & Ayensu is key to biodiversity conservation in the tropical mountain region of Brazil. The massive post-fire flowering of this endemic species provides a large, episodic supply of floral resources, mostly nectar, to animals.

  1. High acetone concentrations throughout the 0-12 km altitude range over the tropical rainforest in Surinam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poschl, U; Williams, J; Hoor, P; Fischer, H; Crutzen, PJ; Warneke, C; Holzinger, R; Hansel, A; Jordan, A; Lindinger, W; Scheeren, HA; Peters, W; Lelieveld, J

    Airborne measurements of acetone were performed over the tropical rainforest in Surinam (2 degrees -7 degrees N, 54 degrees -58 degrees W, 0-12 km altitude) during the LBA-CLAIRE campaign in March 1998, using a novel proton transfer reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) that enables the on-line

  2. Nutrient stocks of short-term fallows on high base status soils in the humid tropics of Papua New Guinea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartemink, A.E.


    In order to understand nutrient dynamics in tropical farming systems with fallows, it is necessary to assess changes in nutrient stocks in plants, litter and soils. Nutrient stocks (soil, above ground biomass, litter) were assessed of one-year old fallows with Piper aduncum, Gliricidia sepium and

  3. Implication of Negative Entropy Flow for Local Rainfall

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    Zhaohui Li


    Full Text Available The relation between the atmospheric entropy flow field and local rainfall is examined in terms of the theory of dissipative structures. In this paper, the entropy balance equation in a form suitable for describing the entropy budget of the Earth’s atmosphere is derived starting from the Gibbs relation, and, as examples, the entropy flows of the two severe weather events associated with the development of an extratropical cyclone and a tropical storm are calculated, respectively. The results show that negative entropy flow (NEF has a significant effect on the precipitation intensity and scope with an apparent matching of the NEF’s pattern with the rainfall distribution revealed and, that the diagnosis of NEF is able to provide a good indicator for precipitation forecasting.

  4. Volcanically-Triggered Rainfall and the Effect on Volcanological Hazards at Soufriere Hills, Montserrat (United States)

    Poulidis, Alexandros-Panagiotis; Renfrew, Ian; Matthews, Adrian


    Atmospheric flow simulations over and around the Soufriere Hills volcano in the island of Montserrat in the Caribbean are studied, through a series of numerical model experiments, in order to link interactions between the volcano and the atmosphere. A heated surface is added on the top of the mountain, in order to simulate the dome of an active volcano that is not undergoing an eruption. A series of simulations with different atmospheric conditions and control parameters for the volc