Sprinkling experiments to simulate high and intense rainfall for process based investigations - a comparison of two methods

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, C.; Seeger, M.; Schneider, R.; Johst, M.; Casper, M.

2009-04-01

Land use and land management changes affect runoff and erosion dynamics. So, measures within this scope are often directed towards the mitigation of natural hazards such as floods and landslides. However, the effects of these changes (e.g. in soil physics after reforestation or a less extensive agriculture) are i) detectable first many years later or ii) hardly observable with conventional methods. Therefore, sprinkling experiments are frequently used for process based investigations of near-surface hydrological response as well as rill and interrill erosion. In this study, two different sprinkling systems have been applied under different land use and at different scales to elucidate and quantify dominant processes of runoff generation, as well as to relate them to the detachment and transport of solids. The studies take place at the micro-scale basin Zemmer and Frankelbach in Germany. At the Zemmer basin the sprinkling experiments were performed on agricultural land while the experiments in Frankelbach were performed at reforested sites. The experiments were carried out i) with a small mobile rainfall simulator of high rainfall intensities (40 mm h-1) and ii) with a larger one covering a slope segment and simulating high rainfall amounts (120 mm in 3 days). Both methods show basically comparable results. On the agricultural sites clear differences could be observed between different soil management types: contrasting to the conventionally tilled soils, deep loosened soils (in combination with conservative tillage) do not produce overland flow, but tend to transfer more water by interflow processes, retaining large amounts in the subsoil. For the forested sites runoff shows a high variability as determined the larger and the smaller rainfall simulations. This variability is rather due to the different forest and soil types than to methodologically different settings of the sprinkling systems. Both rainfall simulation systems characterized the runoff behavior in a

Simulated sensitivity of African terrestrial ecosystem photosynthesis to rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Kaiyu; Good, Stephen P.; Caylor, Kelly K.; Medvigy, David; Pan, Ming; Wood, Eric F.; Sato, Hisashi; Biasutti, Michela; Chen, Min; Ahlström, Anders; Xu, Xiangtao

2018-02-01

There is growing evidence of ongoing changes in the statistics of intra-seasonal rainfall variability over large parts of the world. Changes in annual total rainfall may arise from shifts, either singly or in a combination, of distinctive intra-seasonal characteristics -i.e. rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, and rainfall seasonality. Understanding how various ecosystems respond to the changes in intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics is critical for predictions of future biome shifts and ecosystem services under climate change, especially for arid and semi-arid ecosystems. Here, we use an advanced dynamic vegetation model (SEIB-DGVM) coupled with a stochastic rainfall/weather simulator to answer the following question: how does the productivity of ecosystems respond to a given percentage change in the total seasonal rainfall that is realized by varying only one of the three rainfall characteristics (rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length)? We conducted ensemble simulations for continental Africa for a realistic range of changes (-20% ~ +20%) in total rainfall amount. We find that the simulated ecosystem productivity (measured by gross primary production, GPP) shows distinctive responses to the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics. Specifically, increase in rainfall frequency can lead to 28% more GPP increase than the same percentage increase in rainfall intensity; in tropical woodlands, GPP sensitivity to changes in rainy season length is ~4 times larger than to the same percentage changes in rainfall frequency or intensity. In contrast, shifts in the simulated biome distribution are much less sensitive to intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics than they are to total rainfall amount. Our results reveal three major distinctive productivity responses to seasonal rainfall variability—‘chronic water stress’, ‘acute water stress’ and ‘minimum water stress’ - which are respectively associated with three broad spatial patterns of

Infiltration and Runoff Measurements on Steep Burned Hillslopes Using a Rainfall Simulator with Variable Rain Intensities

Science.gov (United States)

Kinner, David A.; Moody, John A.

2008-01-01

Multiple rainfall intensities were used in rainfall-simulation experiments designed to investigate the infiltration and runoff from 1-square-meter plots on burned hillslopes covered by an ash layer of varying thickness. The 1-square-meter plots were on north- and south-facing hillslopes in an area burned by the Overland fire northwest of Boulder near Jamestown on the Front Range of Colorado. A single-nozzle, wide-angle, multi-intensity rain simulator was developed to investigate the infiltration and runoff on steep (30- to 40-percent gradient) burned hillslopes covered with ash. The simulated rainfall was evaluated for spatial variability, drop size, and kinetic energy. Fourteen rainfall simulations, at three intensities (about 20 millimeters per hour [mm/h], 35 mm/h, and 50 mm/h), were conducted on four plots. Measurements during and after the simulations included runoff, rainfall, suspended-sediment concentrations, surface ash layer thickness, soil moisture, soil grain size, soil lost on ignition, and plot topography. Runoff discharge reached a steady state within 7 to 26 minutes. Steady infiltration rates with the 50-mm/h application rainfall intensity approached 20?35 mm/h. If these rates are projected to rainfall application intensities used in many studies of burned area runoff production (about 80 mm/h), the steady discharge rates are on the lower end of measurements from other studies. Experiments using multiple rainfall intensities (three) suggest that runoff begins at rainfall intensities around 20 mm/h at the 1-square-meter scale, an observation consistent with a 10-mm/h rainfall intensity threshold needed for runoff initiation that has been reported in the literature.

Comparison between intensity- duration thresholds and cumulative rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide

Science.gov (United States)

Lagomarsino, Daniela; Rosi, Ascanio; Rossi, Guglielmo; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo

2014-05-01

This work makes a quantitative comparison between the results of landslide forecasting obtained using two different rainfall threshold models, one using intensity-duration thresholds and the other based on cumulative rainfall thresholds in an area of northern Tuscany of 116 km2. The first methodology identifies rainfall intensity-duration thresholds by means a software called MaCumBA (Massive CUMulative Brisk Analyzer) that analyzes rain-gauge records, extracts the intensities (I) and durations (D) of the rainstorms associated with the initiation of landslides, plots these values on a diagram, and identifies thresholds that define the lower bounds of the I-D values. A back analysis using data from past events can be used to identify the threshold conditions associated with the least amount of false alarms. The second method (SIGMA) is based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering: the statistical distribution of the rainfall series is analyzed, and multiples of the standard deviation (σ) are used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. The name of the model, SIGMA, reflects the central role of the standard deviations in the proposed methodology. The definition of intensity-duration rainfall thresholds requires the combined use of rainfall measurements and an inventory of dated landslides, whereas SIGMA model can be implemented using only rainfall data. These two methodologies were applied in an area of 116 km2 where a database of 1200 landslides was available for the period 2000-2012. The results obtained are compared and discussed. Although several examples of visual comparisons between different intensity-duration rainfall thresholds are reported in the international literature, a quantitative comparison between thresholds obtained in the same area using different techniques and approaches is a relatively undebated research topic.

Automatic Extraction of High-Resolution Rainfall Series from Rainfall Strip Charts

Science.gov (United States)

Saa-Requejo, Antonio; Valencia, Jose Luis; Garrido, Alberto; Tarquis, Ana M.

2015-04-01

Soil erosion is a complex phenomenon involving the detachment and transport of soil particles, storage and runoff of rainwater, and infiltration. The relative magnitude and importance of these processes depends on a host of factors, including climate, soil, topography, cropping and land management practices among others. Most models for soil erosion or hydrological processes need an accurate storm characterization. However, this data are not always available and in some cases indirect models are generated to fill this gap. In Spain, the rain intensity data known for time periods less than 24 hours back to 1924 and many studies are limited by it. In many cases this data is stored in rainfall strip charts in the meteorological stations but haven't been transfer in a numerical form. To overcome this deficiency in the raw data a process of information extraction from large amounts of rainfall strip charts is implemented by means of computer software. The method has been developed that largely automates the intensive-labour extraction work based on van Piggelen et al. (2011). The method consists of the following five basic steps: 1) scanning the charts to high-resolution digital images, 2) manually and visually registering relevant meta information from charts and pre-processing, 3) applying automatic curve extraction software in a batch process to determine the coordinates of cumulative rainfall lines on the images (main step), 4) post processing the curves that were not correctly determined in step 3, and 5) aggregating the cumulative rainfall in pixel coordinates to the desired time resolution. A colour detection procedure is introduced that automatically separates the background of the charts and rolls from the grid and subsequently the rainfall curve. The rainfall curve is detected by minimization of a cost function. Some utilities have been added to improve the previous work and automates some auxiliary processes: readjust the bands properly, merge bands when

[Rainfall intensity effects on nutrients transport in surface runoff from farmlands in gentle slope hilly area of Taihu Lake Basin].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Rui-ling; Zhang, Yong-chun; Liu, Zhuang; Zeng, Yuan; Li, Wei-xin; Zhang, Hong-ling

2010-05-01

To investigate the effect of rainfall on agricultural nonpoint source pollution, watershed scale experiments were conducted to study the characteristics of nutrients in surface runoff under different rainfall intensities from farmlands in gentle slope hilly areas around Taihu Lake. Rainfall intensity significantly affected N and P concentrations in runoff. Rainfall intensity was positively related to TP, PO4(3-) -P and NH4+ -N event mean concentrations(EMC). However, this study have found the EMC of TN and NO3- -N to be positively related to rainfall intensity under light rain and negatively related to rainfall intensity under heavy rain. TN and TP site mean amounts (SMA) in runoff were positively related to rainfall intensity and were 1.91, 311.83, 127.65, 731.69 g/hm2 and 0.04, 7.77, 2.99, 32.02 g/hm2 with rainfall applied under light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain and rainstorm respectively. N in runoff was mainly NO3- -N and NH4+ -N and was primarily in dissolved form from Meilin soils. Dissolved P (DP) was the dominant form of TP under light rain, but particulate P (PP) mass loss increased with the increase of rainfall intensity and to be the dominant form when the rainfall intensity reaches rainstorm. Single relationships were used to describe the dependence of TN and TP mass losses in runoff on rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity, average rainfall intensity and rainfall duration respectively. The results showed a significant positive correlation between TN mass loss and rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity respectively (p < 0.01) and also TP mass loss and rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity respectively (p < 0.01).

Bivariate frequency analysis of rainfall intensity and duration for urban stormwater infrastructure design

Science.gov (United States)

Jun, Changhyun; Qin, Xiaosheng; Gan, Thian Yew; Tung, Yeou-Koung; De Michele, Carlo

2017-10-01

This study presents a storm-event based bivariate frequency analysis approach to determine design rainfalls in which, the number, intensity and duration of actual rainstorm events were considered. To derive more realistic design storms, the occurrence probability of an individual rainstorm event was determined from the joint distribution of storm intensity and duration through a copula model. Hourly rainfall data were used at three climate stations respectively located in Singapore, South Korea and Canada. It was found that the proposed approach could give a more realistic description of rainfall characteristics of rainstorm events and design rainfalls. As results, the design rainfall quantities from actual rainstorm events at the three studied sites are consistently lower than those obtained from the conventional rainfall depth-duration-frequency (DDF) method, especially for short-duration storms (such as 1-h). It results from occurrence probabilities of each rainstorm event and a different angle for rainfall frequency analysis, and could offer an alternative way of describing extreme rainfall properties and potentially help improve the hydrologic design of stormwater management facilities in urban areas.

Combining spray nozzle simulators with meshes: characterization of rainfall intensity and drop properties

Science.gov (United States)

Carvalho, Sílvia C. P.; de Lima, João L. M. P.; de Lima, M. Isabel P.

2013-04-01

Rainfall simulators can be a powerful tool to increase our understanding of hydrological and geomorphological processes. Nevertheless, rainfall simulators' design and operation might be rather demanding, for achieving specific rainfall intensity distributions and drop characteristics. The pressurized simulators have some advantages over the non-pressurized simulators: drops do not rely on gravity to reach terminal velocity, but are sprayed out under pressure; pressurized simulators also yield a broad range of drop sizes in comparison with drop-formers simulators. The main purpose of this study was to explore in the laboratory the potential of combining spray nozzle simulators with meshes in order to change rainfall characteristics (rainfall intensity and diameters and fall speed of drops). Different types of spray nozzles were tested, such as single full-cone and multiple full-cone nozzles. The impact of the meshes on the simulated rain was studied by testing different materials (i.e. plastic and steel meshes), square apertures and wire thicknesses, and different vertical distances between the nozzle and the meshes underneath. The diameter and fall speed of the rain drops were measured using a Laser Precipitation Monitor (Thies Clima). The rainfall intensity range and coefficients of uniformity of the sprays and the drop size distribution, fall speed and kinetic energy were analysed. Results show that when meshes intercept drop trajectories the spatial distribution of rainfall intensity and the drop size distribution are affected. As the spray nozzles generate typically small drop sizes and narrow drop size distributions, meshes can be used to promote the formation of bigger drops and random their landing positions.

Rainfall Intensity and Frequency Explain Production Basis Risk in Cumulative Rain Index Insurance

Science.gov (United States)

Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus P.; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Huffaker, Ray G.

2017-12-01

With minimal moral hazard and adverse selection, weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions through swift compensation at affordable premium. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing gives rise to production basis risk as the selected weather indexes do not sufficiently correspond to actual damages. To address this problem, we develop a stochastic yield model, built upon a stochastic soil moisture model driven by marked Poisson rainfall. Our analysis shows that even under similar temperature and rainfall amount yields can differ significantly; this was empirically supported by a 2-year field experiment in which rain-fed maize was grown under very similar total rainfall. Here, the year with more intense, less-frequent rainfall produces a better yield—a rare counter evidence to most climate change projections. Through a stochastic yield model, we demonstrate the crucial roles of rainfall intensity and frequency in determining the yield. Importantly, the model allows us to compute rainfall pattern-related basis risk inherent in cumulative rain index insurance. The model results and a case study herein clearly show that total rainfall is a poor indicator of yield, imposing unnecessary production basis risk on farmers and false-positive payouts on insurers. Incorporating rainfall intensity and frequency in the design of rain index insurance can offer farmers better protection, while maintaining the attractive features of the weather index insurance and thus fulfilling its promise of financial resilience.

Influence of rainfall intensity on infiltration and deformation of unsaturated soil slopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia Aristizabal, Edwin Fabian; Riveros Jerez, Carlos Alberto; Builes Brand, Manuel Alonso

2011-01-01

In order to improve the understanding of the influence of rainfall intensity on infiltration and deformation behavior of unsaturated soil slopes, numerical 2D analyses are carried out by a three-phase elasto-viscoplastic seepage-deformation coupled method. From the numerical results, it is shown that regardless of the saturated permeability of the soil slope, the increase in the pore water pressure (reduction in suction) during rainfall infiltration is localized close to the slope surface. In addition, the generation of the pore water pressure and the lateral displacement are mainly controlled by the ratio of the rainfall intensity to the saturated permeability of the soil.

Effect of Variations in Long-Duration Rainfall Intensity on Unsaturated Slope Stability

OpenAIRE

Hsin-Fu Yeh; Yi-Jin Tsai

2018-01-01

In recent years, many scientific methods have been used to prove that the Earth’s climate is changing. Climate change can affect rainfall patterns, which can in turn affect slope safety. Therefore, this study analyzed the effects of climate change on rainfall patterns from the perspective of rainfall intensity. This analysis was combined with numerical model analysis to examine the rainfall patterns of the Zengwen reservoir catchment area and its effects on slope stability. In this study, the...

Effects of Rainfall Intensity and Slope Angle on Splash Erosion in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Soil erosion is a critical global environmental problem, especially in the developing countries including Nigeria. In the humid and sub-humid tropics, splash erosion resulting from intense rainfall and slope degree pose severe land degradation problems. The objective of this study is to assess the effects of some rainfall ...

Assessing Climate Variability using Extreme Rainfall and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user1

extreme frequency); the average intensity of rainfall from extreme events ... frequency and extreme intensity indices, suggesting that extreme events are more frequent and intense during years with high rainfall. The proportion of total rainfall from ...

Probabilistic Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for the October 2015 Flooding in South Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, R.; Samadi, S. Z.; Meadows, M.

2017-12-01

The potential for the intensity of extreme rainfall to increase with climate change nonstationarity has emerged as a prevailing issue for the design of engineering infrastructure, underscoring the need to better characterize the statistical assumptions underlying hydrological frequency analysis. The focus of this study is on developing probabilistic rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for the major catchments in South Carolina (SC) where the October 02-05, 2015 floods caused infrastructure damages and several lives to be lost. Continuous to discrete probability distributions including Weibull, the generalized extreme value (GEV), the Generalized Pareto (GP), the Gumbel, the Fréchet, the normal, and the log-normal functions were fitted to the short duration (i.e., 24-hr) intense rainfall. Analysis suggests that the GEV probability distribution provided the most adequate fit to rainfall records. Rainfall frequency analysis indicated return periods above 500 years for urban drainage systems with a maximum return level of approximately 2,744 years, whereas rainfall magnitude was much lower in rural catchments. Further, the return levels (i.e., 2, 20, 50,100, 500, and 1000 years) computed by Monte Carlo method were consistently higher than the NOAA design IDF curves. Given the potential increase in the magnitude of intense rainfall, current IDF curves can substantially underestimate the frequency of extremes, indicating the susceptibility of the storm drainage and flood control structures in SC that were designed under assumptions of a stationary climate.

A space-time rainfall generator for highly convective Mediterranean rainstorms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Salsón

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Distributed hydrological models require fine resolution rainfall inputs, enhancing the practical interest of space-time rainfall models, capable of generating through numerical simulation realistic space-time rainfall intensity fields. Among different mathematical approaches, those based on point processes and built upon a convenient analytical description of the raincell as the fundamental unit, have shown to be particularly suitable and well adapted when extreme rainfall events of convective nature are considered. Starting from previous formulations, some analytical refinements have been considered, allowing practical generation of space-time rainfall intensity fields for that type of rainstorm events. Special attention is placed on the analytical description of the spatial and temporal evolution of the rainfall intensities produced by the raincells. After deriving the necessary analytical results, the seven parameters of the model have been estimated by the method of moments, for each of the 30 selected rainfall events in the Jucar River Basin (ValenciaSpain – period 1991 to 2000, using 5-min aggregated rainfall data series from an automatic raingauge network.

Intense rainfalls prediction models for the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil

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Sidney Pereira

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Rain intensity data are necessary to increase security of hydraulic projects. The objective of this study was to determine the relationships among intensity-duration-frequency (IDF and Bell’s model for the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil. The equations were obtained by disaggregation of 24 h rainfall data from 136 rain stations available in the National Water Agency (ANA data base. Employing Gumbel distribution, the rainfalls were estimated for each time duration and for the return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years, and thereafter for each season. The coefficients of IDF relationships and Bell’s models were adjusted by the minimum square method, for all seasons evaluated. The coefficients of determination and Willmott agreement index exceeded 0.98 and 0.85, respectively, for all stations, which classifies the adjustment of the rainfall models as great.

Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES): A product of a high temporal resolution rainfall data collection in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

2016-04-01

The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the (R)USLE model. The R-factor is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minutes rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years) which are not readily available at European scale. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland in order to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,541 rainfall stations in 2014 and has been updated with 134 additional stations in 2015. The interpolation of those point R-factor values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511, 801-815). The intra-annual variability of rainfall erosivity is crucial for modelling soil erosion on a monthly and seasonal basis. The monthly feature of rainfall erosivity has been added in 2015 as an advancement of REDES and the respective mean annual R-factor map. Almost 19,000 monthly R-factor values of REDES contributed to the seasonal and monthly assessments of rainfall erosivity in Europe. According to the first results, more than 50% of the total rainfall erosivity in Europe takes place in the period from June to September. The spatial patterns of rainfall erosivity have significant differences between Northern and Southern Europe as summer is the most erosive period in Central and Northern Europe and autumn in the

Rainfall intensity effects on removal of fecal indicator bacteria from solid dairy manure applied over grass-covered soil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blaustein, Ryan A., E-mail: rblauste@ufl.edu [USDA-ARS Environmental Microbial and Food Safety Laboratory, Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, Beltsville, MD (United States); Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Hill, Robert L. [Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Micallef, Shirley A. [Department of Plant Science and Landscape Architecture, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Center for Food Safety and Security Systems, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Shelton, Daniel R.; Pachepsky, Yakov A. [USDA-ARS Environmental Microbial and Food Safety Laboratory, Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, Beltsville, MD (United States)

2016-01-01

The rainfall-induced release of pathogens and microbial indicators from land-applied manure and their subsequent removal with runoff and infiltration precedes the impairment of surface and groundwater resources. It has been assumed that rainfall intensity and changes in intensity during rainfall do not affect microbial removal when expressed as a function of rainfall depth. The objective of this work was to test this assumption by measuring the removal of Escherichia coli, enterococci, total coliforms, and chloride ion from dairy manure applied in soil boxes containing fescue, under 3, 6, and 9 cm h{sup −1} of rainfall. Runoff and leachate were collected at increasing time intervals during rainfall, and post-rainfall soil samples were taken at 0, 2, 5, and 10 cm depths. Three kinetic-based models were fitted to the data on manure-constituent removal with runoff. Rainfall intensity appeared to have positive effects on rainwater partitioning to runoff, and removal with this effluent type occurred in two stages. While rainfall intensity generally did not impact the parameters of runoff-removal models, it had significant, inverse effects on the numbers of bacteria remaining in soil after rainfall. As rainfall intensity and soil profile depth increased, the numbers of indicator bacteria tended to decrease. The cumulative removal of E. coli from manure exceeded that of enterococci, especially in the form of removal with infiltration. This work may be used to improve the parameterization of models for bacteria removal with runoff and to advance estimations of depths of bacteria removal with infiltration, both of which are critical to risk assessment of microbial fate and transport in the environment. - Highlights: • Release and removal of indicator bacteria from manure was evaluated in soil boxes. • Rainfall intensity did not impact runoff-removal kinetics in three tested models. • Rainfall intensity had positive/inverse effects on bacterial release to runoff

Effect of Slope, Rainfall Intensity and Mulch on Erosion and Infiltration under Simulated Rain on Purple Soil of South-Western Sichuan Province, China

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Muhammad Naeem Khan

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Purple soil is widely distributed in the hilly areas of the Sichuan basin, southwest China, and is highly susceptible to water erosion. The triggering of this process is related to slope, rainfall intensity and surface cover. Therefore, this study assesses the effects of different simulated rainfall intensities with different slopes on hydrological and erosional processes in un-mulched and mulched purple soils. Results show that the sediment and water losses increased with an increase of rainfall intensity and slope steepness. Generally, the slope contribution (Sc on water and sediment losses decreased with increasing rainfall intensity and slope steepness under both un-mulched and mulched soil. In un-mulched conditions, water losses were independent of slope steepness (Sc < 50% during the highest rainfall intensity. However, in mulched soil, the higher contributions of slope (Sc and rainfall (Rc were found for water and sediment losses, respectively, i.e., >50%, except during the increase in slope steepness from 15° to 25° under the highest rainfall intensity (120 mm·h−1. The effectiveness of mulch was more pronounced in reducing sediment losses (81%–100% compared with water losses (14%–100%. The conservation effectiveness of mulch both decreased and increased with slope steepness for water and sediment losses, respectively, under higher rainfall intensities. Water infiltration and recharge coefficient (RC decreased with an increase of slope steepness, while with an increase in rainfall intensity, the water infiltration and RC were increased and decreased, respectively, in both un-mulched and mulched soil. On the other hand, mulched soil maintained a significantly (α = 0.05 higher infiltration capacity and RC compared to that of the un-mulched soil.

Untreated runoff quality from roof and road surfaces in a low intensity rainfall climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Charters, Frances J; Cochrane, Thomas A; O'Sullivan, Aisling D

2016-04-15

Sediment and heavy metals in stormwater runoff are key pollutants of urban waterways, and their presence in stormwater is driven by climatic factors such as rainfall intensity. This study describes the total suspended solids (TSS) and heavy metal concentrations found in runoff from four different urban surfaces within a residential/institutional catchment, in a climate where rainfall is typically of low intensity (runoff quality from a compilation of international studies. The road runoff had the highest TSS concentrations, while copper and galvanized roof runoff had the highest copper and zinc concentrations, respectively. Pollutant concentrations were found to be significantly different between surfaces; quantification and prediction of pollutant contributions from urban surfaces should thus take account of the different surface materials, instead of being aggregated into more generalized categories such as land use. The TSS and heavy metal concentrations were found to be at the low to medium end of ranges observed internationally, except for total copper and zinc concentrations generated by dissolution of copper and galvanized roofing material respectively; these concentrations were at least as high as those reported internationally. TSS wash-off from the roofs was seen to be a source-limited process, where all available TSS is washed off during the rain event despite the low intensity rainfall, whereas both road TSS and heavy metals wash-off from roof and road surfaces appeared to all be transport-limited and therefore some carryover of pollutants occurs between rain events. A first flush effect was seen from most surfaces for TSS, but not for heavy metals. This study demonstrates that in low intensity rainfall climates, quantification of untreated runoff quality from key individual surface types in a catchment are needed to enable development of targeted and appropriately sized stormwater treatment systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gross rainfall amount and maximum rainfall intensity in 60-minute influence on interception loss of shrubs: a 10-year observation in the Tengger Desert.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhi-Shan; Zhao, Yang; Li, Xin-Rong; Huang, Lei; Tan, Hui-Juan

2016-05-17

In water-limited regions, rainfall interception is influenced by rainfall properties and crown characteristics. Rainfall properties, aside from gross rainfall amount and duration (GR and RD), maximum rainfall intensity and rainless gap (RG), within rain events may heavily affect throughfall and interception by plants. From 2004 to 2014 (except for 2007), individual shrubs of Caragana korshinskii and Artemisia ordosica were selected to measure throughfall during 210 rain events. Various rainfall properties were auto-measured and crown characteristics, i.e., height, branch and leaf area index, crown area and volume of two shrubs were also measured. The relative interceptions of C. korshinskii and A. ordosica were 29.1% and 17.1%, respectively. Rainfall properties have more contributions than crown characteristics to throughfall and interception of shrubs. Throughfall and interception of shrubs can be explained by GR, RI60 (maximum rainfall intensities during 60 min), RD and RG in deceasing importance. However, relative throughfall and interception of two shrubs have different responses to rainfall properties and crown characteristics, those of C. korshinskii were closely related to rainfall properties, while those of A. ordosica were more dependent on crown characteristics. We highlight long-term monitoring is very necessary to determine the relationships between throughfall and interception with crown characteristics.

Exploring changes in rainfall intensity and seasonal variability in the Southeastern U.S.: Stakeholder engagement, observations, and adaptation

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Daniel R. Dourte

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The distribution of rainfall has major impacts in agriculture, affecting the soil, hydrology, and plant health in agricultural systems. The goal of this study was to test for recent changes in rainfall intensity and seasonal rainfall variability in the Southeastern U.S. by exploring the data collaboratively with agricultural stakeholders. Daily rainfall records from the Global Historical Climatology Network were used to analyze changes in rain intensity and seasonal rainfall variability. During the last 30 years (1985–2014, there has been a significant change (53% increase in the number of extreme rainfall days (>152.4 mm/day and there have been significant decreases in the number of moderate intensity (12.7–25.4 mm/day and heavy (25.4–76.2 mm/day rainfall days in the Southeastern U.S., when compared to the previous 30-year period (1955–1984. There have also been significant decreases in the return period of months in which greater than half of the monthly total rain occurred in a single day; this is an original, stakeholder-developed rainfall intensity metric. The variability in spring and summer rainfall increased during the last 30 years, but winter and fall showed less variability in seasonal totals in the last 30 years. In agricultural systems, rainfall is one of the leading factors affecting yield variability; so it can be expected that more variable rainfall and more intense rain events could bring new challenges to agricultural production. However, these changes can also present opportunities for producers who are taking measures to adjust management strategies to make their systems more resilient to increased rain intensity and variability.

Effects of Rainfall Intensity and Slope Gradient on Runoff and Soil Moisture Content on Different Growing Stages of Spring Maize

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenbin Mu

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The rainfall-runoff process (RRP is an important part of hydrologic process. There is an effective measure to study RRP through artificial rainfall simulation. This paper describes a study on three growing stages (jointing stage, tasseling stage, and mature stage of spring maize in which simulated rainfall events were used to study the effects of various factors (rainfall intensity and slope gradient on the RRP. The RRP was tested with three different rainfall intensities (0.67, 1.00, and 1.67 mm/min and subjected to three different slopes (5°, 15°, and 20° so as to study RRP characteristics in semiarid regions. Regression analysis was used to study the results of this test. The following key results were obtained: (1 With the increase in rainfall intensity and slope, the increasing relationship with rainfall duration, overland flow, and cumulative runoff, respectively, complied with logarithmic and quadratic functions before reaching stable runoff in each growing stage of spring maize; (2 The runoff coefficient increased with the increase in rainfall intensity and slope in each growing stages of spring maize. The relationship between runoff coefficient, slope, rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, antecedent soil moisture, and vegetation coverage was multivariate and nonlinear; (3 The runoff lag time decreased with the increase in rainfall intensity and slope within the same growing stage. In addition, the relationship between runoff lag time, slope, rainfall intensity, antecedent soil moisture, and vegetation coverage could also be expressed by a multivariate nonlinear equation; (4 The descent rate of soil infiltration rate curve increased with the increased rainfall intensity and slope in the same growing stage. Furthermore, by comparing the Kostiakov, Horton, and Philip models, it was found that the Horton infiltration model was the best for estimating soil infiltration rate and cumulative infiltration under the condition of test.

Modelling and assessment of urban flood hazards based on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves reformation

OpenAIRE

Ghazavi, Reza; Moafi Rabori, Ali; Ahadnejad Reveshty, Mohsen

2016-01-01

Estimate design storm based on rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves is an important parameter for hydrologic planning of urban areas. The main aim of this study was to estimate rainfall intensities of Zanjan city watershed based on overall relationship of rainfall IDF curves and appropriate model of hourly rainfall estimation (Sherman method, Ghahreman and Abkhezr method). Hydrologic and hydraulic impacts of rainfall IDF curves change in flood properties was evaluated via Stormw...

Estimate of annual daily maximum rainfall and intense rain equation for the Formiga municipality, MG, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovana Mara Rodrigues Borges

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of the probabilistic behavior of rainfall is extremely important to the design of drainage systems, dam spillways, and other hydraulic projects. This study therefore examined statistical models to predict annual daily maximum rainfall as well as models of heavy rain for the city of Formiga - MG. To do this, annual maximum daily rainfall data were ranked in decreasing order that best describes the statistical distribution by exceedance probability. Daily rainfall disaggregation methodology was used for the intense rain model studies and adjusted with Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF and Exponential models. The study found that the Gumbel model better adhered to the data regarding observed frequency as indicated by the Chi-squared test, and that the exponential model best conforms to the observed data to predict intense rains.

Research on the Relationship between Landslide of Farming Terraces and the Intensity of Rainfall and Slope Angle Based on the Indoor Rainfall Slide Slope Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dongqin Chen

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Due to the increase of geographical disaster in China, it is necessary to study the formation mechanism to make a preparation for the future prevention of geological disasters and effectively reduce the unnecessary financial loss and casualties. We found there is a powerful connection between heavy rainfall and landslide slope. Thus, this article takes the accumulation of gravel soil as the research material to set up indoor rainfall and landslide model test. By comparing the rules of pore water pressure and soil pressure responding to different rainfall intensity and slope angle, we discussed over the effects of rainfall intensity and slope angle on the sliding of accumulation gravelly soil.

Effects of sample size on estimation of rainfall extremes at high temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Boessenkool, Berry; Bürger, Gerd; Heistermann, Maik

2017-09-01

High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.

Effects of sample size on estimation of rainfall extremes at high temperatures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Boessenkool

2017-09-01

Full Text Available High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius–Clapeyron (CC scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.

Effects of rainfall intensity and slope gradient on runoff and sediment yield characteristics of bare loess soil.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Lei; Peng, Mengling; Qiao, Shanshan; Ma, Xiao-Yi

2018-02-01

Soil erosion is a universal phenomenon on the Loess Plateau but it exhibits complex and typical mechanism which makes it difficult to understand soil loss laws on slopes. We design artificial simulated rainfall experiments including six rainfall intensities (45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 120 mm/h) and five slopes (5°, 10°, 15°, 20°, 25°) to reveal the fundamental changing trends of runoff and sediment yield on bare loess soil. Here, we show that the runoff yield within the initial 15 min increased rapidly and its trend gradually became stable. Trends of sediment yield under different rainfall intensities are various. The linear correlation between runoff and rainfall intensity is obvious for different slopes, but the correlations between sediment yield and rainfall intensity are weak. Runoff and sediment yield on the slope surface both presents an increasing trend when the rainfall intensity increases from 45 mm/h to 120 mm/h, but the increasing trend of runoff yield is higher than that of sediment yield. The sediment yield also has an overall increasing trend when the slope changes from 5° to 25°, but the trend of runoff yield is not obvious. Our results may provide data support and underlying insights needed to guide the management of soil conservation planning on the Loess Plateau.

Distributed modelling of shallow landslides triggered by intense rainfall

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G. B. Crosta

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Hazard assessment of shallow landslides represents an important aspect of land management in mountainous areas. Among all the methods proposed in the literature, physically based methods are the only ones that explicitly includes the dynamic factors that control landslide triggering (rainfall pattern, land-use. For this reason, they allow forecasting both the temporal and the spatial distribution of shallow landslides. Physically based methods for shallow landslides are based on the coupling of the infinite slope stability analysis with hydrological models. Three different grid-based distributed hydrological models are presented in this paper: a steady state model, a transient "piston-flow" wetting front model, and a transient diffusive model. A comparative test of these models was performed to simulate landslide occurred during a rainfall event (27–28 June 1997 that triggered hundreds of shallow landslides within Lecco province (central Southern Alps, Italy. In order to test the potential for a completely distributed model for rainfall-triggered landslides, radar detected rainfall intensity has been used. A new procedure for quantitative evaluation of distributed model performance is presented and used in this paper. The diffusive model results in the best model for the simulation of shallow landslide triggering after a rainfall event like the one that we have analysed. Finally, radar data available for the June 1997 event permitted greatly improving the simulation. In particular, radar data allowed to explain the non-uniform distribution of landslides within the study area.

The Effect of Rainfall Intensity on Soil Erosion and Runoff for Latosol Soil in Indonesia

OpenAIRE

Sukartaatmadja, Sukandi; Sato, Yohei; Yamaji, Eiji; Ishikawa, Masaya

2003-01-01

Soil erosion is the most serious problem of land degradation in Indonesia. However, limited report has been documented. The erosion problem in Indonesia, particularly in Java, has been at an alarming rate. The fundamental 1 case of soil erosion is the rain effect upon the soil. Rainfall intensity and soil characteristics are related to soil erosion and runoff The objective of this research was to study the relationship of rainfall intensity, soil erosion and runoff in latosol s...

The Use of Satellite Microwave Rainfall Measurements to Predict Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

West, Derek

1998-01-01

.... Relationships between parameters obtained from an operational SSM/I based rainfall measuring algorithm and current intensity and ensuing 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 hour intensity changes from best...

Preliminary Investigation on the Behavior of Pore Air Pressure During Rainfall Infiltration

Science.gov (United States)

Ashraf Mohamad Ismail, Mohd; Min, Ng Soon; Hasliza Hamzah, Nur; Hazreek Zainal Abidin, Mohd; Madun, Aziman; Tajudin, Saiful Azhar Ahmad

2018-04-01

This paper focused on the preliminary investigation of pore air pressure behaviour during rainfall infiltration in order to substantiate the mechanism of rainfall induced slope failure. The actual behaviour or pore air pressure during infiltration is yet to be clearly understood as it is regularly assumed as atmospheric. Numerical modelling of one dimensional (1D) soil column was utilized in this study to provide a preliminary insight of this highlighted uncertainty. Parametric study was performed by using rainfall intensities of 1.85 x 10-3m/s and 1.16 x 10-4m/s applied on glass beads to simulate intense and modest rainfall conditions. Analysis results show that the high rainfall intensity causes more development of pore air pressure compared to low rainfall intensity. This is because at high rainfall intensity, the rainwater cannot replace the pore air smoothly thus confining the pore air. Therefore, the effect of pore air pressure has to be taken into consideration particularly during heavy rainfall.

Climate Change Impact on Variability of Rainfall Intensity in Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Worku, L. Y.

2015-12-01

Extreme rainfall events are major problems in Ethiopia with the resulting floods that usually could cause significant damage to agriculture, ecology, infrastructure, disruption to human activities, loss of property, loss of lives and disease outbreak. The aim of this study was to explore the likely changes of precipitation extreme changes due to future climate change. The study specifically focuses to understand the future climate change impact on variability of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency in Upper Blue Nile basin. Precipitations data from two Global Climate Models (GCMs) have been used in the study are HadCM3 and CGCM3. Rainfall frequency analysis was carried out to estimate quantile with different return periods. Probability Weighted Method (PWM) selected estimation of parameter distribution and L-Moment Ratio Diagrams (LMRDs) used to find the best parent distribution for each station. Therefore, parent distributions for derived from frequency analysis are Generalized Logistic (GLOG), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Gamma & Pearson III (P3) parent distribution. After analyzing estimated quantile simple disaggregation model was applied in order to find sub daily rainfall data. Finally the disaggregated rainfall is fitted to find IDF curve and the result shows in most parts of the basin rainfall intensity expected to increase in the future. As a result of the two GCM outputs, the study indicates there will be likely increase of precipitation extremes over the Blue Nile basin due to the changing climate. This study should be interpreted with caution as the GCM model outputs in this part of the world have huge uncertainty.

Sensitivity of point scale surface runoff predictions to rainfall resolution

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A. J. Hearman

2007-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of using non-linear, high resolution rainfall, compared to time averaged rainfall on the triggering of hydrologic thresholds and therefore model predictions of infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff at the point scale. The bounded random cascade model, parameterized to three locations in Western Australia, was used to scale rainfall intensities at various time resolutions ranging from 1.875 min to 2 h. A one dimensional, conceptual rainfall partitioning model was used that instantaneously partitioned water into infiltration excess, infiltration, storage, deep drainage, saturation excess and surface runoff, where the fluxes into and out of the soil store were controlled by thresholds. The results of the numerical modelling were scaled by relating soil infiltration properties to soil draining properties, and in turn, relating these to average storm intensities. For all soil types, we related maximum infiltration capacities to average storm intensities (k* and were able to show where model predictions of infiltration excess were most sensitive to rainfall resolution (ln k*=0.4 and where using time averaged rainfall data can lead to an under prediction of infiltration excess and an over prediction of the amount of water entering the soil (ln k*>2 for all three rainfall locations tested. For soils susceptible to both infiltration excess and saturation excess, total runoff sensitivity was scaled by relating drainage coefficients to average storm intensities (g* and parameter ranges where predicted runoff was dominated by infiltration excess or saturation excess depending on the resolution of rainfall data were determined (ln g*<2. Infiltration excess predicted from high resolution rainfall was short and intense, whereas saturation excess produced from low resolution rainfall was more constant and less intense. This has important implications for the accuracy of current hydrological models that use time

Magnified Sediment Export of Small Mountainous Rivers in Taiwan: Chain Reactions from Increased Rainfall Intensity under Global Warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Tsung-Yu; Huang, Jr-Chuan; Lee, Jun-Yi; Jien, Shih-Hao; Zehetner, Franz; Kao, Shuh-Ji

2015-01-01

Fluvial sediment export from small mountainous rivers in Oceania has global biogeochemical significance affecting the turnover rate and export of terrestrial carbon, which might be speeding up at the recognized conditions of increased rainfall intensity. In this study, the historical runoff and sediment export from 16 major rivers in Taiwan are investigated and separated into an early stage (1970-1989) and a recent stage (1990-2010) to illustrate the changes of both runoff and sediment export. The mean daily sediment export from Taiwan Island in the recent stage significantly increased by >80% with subtle increase in daily runoff, indicating more sediment being delivered to the ocean per unit of runoff in the recent stage. The medians of the runoff depth and sediment yield extremes (99.0-99.9 percentiles) among the 16 rivers increased by 6.5%-37% and 62%-94%, respectively, reflecting the disproportionately magnified response of sediment export to the increased runoff. Taiwan is facing increasing event rainfall intensity which has resulted in chain reactions on magnified runoff and sediment export responses. As the globe is warming, rainfall extremes, which are proved to be temperature-dependent, very likely intensify runoff and trigger more sediment associated hazards. Such impacts might occur globally because significant increases of high-intensity precipitation have been observed not only in Taiwan but over most land areas of the globe.

Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Hassan, Zulkarnain; Haidir, Ahmad; Saad, Farah Naemah Mohd; Ayob, Afizah; Rahim, Mustaqqim Abdul; Ghazaly, Zuhayr Md.

2018-03-01

The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015) data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM), as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM). Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hassan Zulkarnain

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015 data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM, as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM. Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

Rainfall characteristics and thresholds for periglacial debris flows in the Parlung Zangbo Basin, southeast Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Mingfeng; Chen, Ningsheng; Ding, Haitao

2018-02-01

The Parlung Zangbo Basin in the southeastern Tibet Plateau is affected by the summer monsoon from the Indian Ocean, which produces large rainfall gradients in the basin. Rainfall data during 2012-2015 from five new meteorological stations are used to analyse the rainfall characteristics. The daily rainfall, rainfall duration, mean rainfall intensity, and peak rainfall intensity are consistent, but sometimes contrasting. For example, these values decrease with increasing altitude, and the gradient is large downstream and small upstream, respectively. Moreover, the rainfall intensity peaks between 01:00 and 06:00 and increases during the afternoon. Based on the analysis of 14 debris flow cases in the basin, differences in the rainfall threshold differ depending on the location as sediment varieties. The sediment in the middle portions of the basin is wet and well structured; thus, long-duration, high-intensity rainfall is required to generate debris flows. Ravels in the upstream area are arid and not well structured, and short-duration rainfall is required to trigger debris flows. Between the above two locations, either long-duration, low-intensity rainfall or short-duration, high-intensity rainfall could provoke debris flows. Clearly, differences in rainfall characteristics and rainfall thresholds that are associated with the location must be considered in debris flow monitoring and warnings.

High Severity Wildfire Effect On Rainfall Infiltration And Runoff: A Cellular Automata Based Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Vergara-Blanco, J. E.; Leboeuf-Pasquier, J.; Benavides-Solorio, J. D. D.

2017-12-01

A simulation software that reproduces rainfall infiltration and runoff for a storm event in a particular forest area is presented. A cellular automaton is utilized to represent space and time. On the time scale, the simulation is composed by a sequence of discrete time steps. On the space scale, the simulation is composed of forest surface cells. The software takes into consideration rain intensity and length, individual forest cell soil absorption capacity evolution, and surface angle of inclination. The software is developed with the C++ programming language. The simulation is executed on a 100 ha area within La Primavera Forest in Jalisco, Mexico. Real soil texture for unburned terrain and high severity wildfire affected terrain is employed to recreate the specific infiltration profile. Historical rainfall data of a 92 minute event is used. The Horton infiltration equation is utilized for infiltration capacity calculation. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is employed to reproduce the surface topography. The DEM is displayed with a 3D mesh graph where individual surface cells can be observed. The plot colouring renders water content development at the cell level throughout the storm event. The simulation shows that the cumulative infiltration and runoff which take place at the surface cell level depend on the specific storm intensity, fluctuation and length, overall terrain topography, cell slope, and soil texture. Rainfall cumulative infiltration for unburned and high severity wildfire terrain are compared: unburned terrain exhibits a significantly higher amount of rainfall infiltration.It is concluded that a cellular automaton can be utilized with a C++ program to reproduce rainfall infiltration and runoff under diverse soil texture, topographic and rainfall conditions in a forest setting. This simulation is geared for an optimization program to pinpoint the locations of a series of forest land remediation efforts to support reforestation or to minimize runoff.

Freeze-thaw processes and intense winter rainfall: The one-two punch for high streambank legacy sediment and nutrient loads from Mid-Atlantic watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Inamdar, S. P.; Johnson, E. R.; Rowland, R. D.; Walter, R. C.; Merritts, D.

2017-12-01

Historic and contemporary anthropogenic soil erosion combined with early-American milldams resulted in large deposits of legacy sediments in the valley bottoms of Piedmont watersheds of the eastern US. Breaching of milldams subsequently yielded highly incised streams with exposed vertical streambanks that are vulnerable to erosion. Streambank erosion is attributed to fluvial scouring, freeze-thaw processes and mass wasting. While streambanks represent a large reservoir of fine sediments and nutrients, there is considerable uncertainty about the contribution of these sources to watershed nonpoint source pollution. Using high-frequency hydrologic, sediment, and turbidity data we show that freeze-thaw events followed by intense winter rainstorms can export unusually high concentrations of suspended sediment and particulate nutrients from watersheds. Data from a 12 ha forested, Piedmont, stream following an intense rain event (54 mm) on February 2016 yielded suspended sediment and particulate nutrient (organic carbon and nitrogen) concentrations and exports that exceeded those from tropical storms Irene, Lee, and Sandy that had much greater rainfall and discharge amounts, but which occurred later in the year. A similar response was also observed with regards to turbidity data for USGS stream monitoring locations at Brandywine Creek (813 km2) and White Clay Creek (153 km2). We hypothesize that much of the sediment export associated with winter storms is likely due to erosion of streambank sediments and was driven by the coupled occurrence of freeze-thaw conditions and intense rainfall events. We propose that freeze-thaw erosion represents an important and underappreciated mechanism in streams that "recharges" the sediment supply, which then is available for flushing by moderate to large storms. Future climate projections indicate increased intensification of storm events and increased variability of winter temperatures. Freeze-thaw cycles coupled with winter rain events

Analysis and stochastic modelling of Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationship from 88 years of 10 min rainfall data in North Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Delgado, Oihane; Campo-Bescós, Miguel A.; López, J. Javier

2017-04-01

Frequently, when we are trying to solve certain hydrological engineering problems, it is often necessary to know rain intensity values related to a specific probability or return period, T. Based on analyses of extreme rainfall events at different time scale aggregation, we can deduce the relationships among Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF), that are widely used in hydraulic infrastructure design. However, the lack of long time series of rainfall intensities for smaller time periods, minutes or hours, leads to use mathematical expressions to characterize and extend these curves. One way to deduce them is through the development of synthetic rainfall time series generated from stochastic models, which is evaluated in this work. From recorded accumulated rainfall time series every 10 min in the pluviograph of Igueldo (San Sebastian, Spain) for the time period between 1927-2005, their homogeneity has been checked and possible statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends have also been shown. Subsequently, two models have been calibrated: Bartlett-Lewis and Markov chains models, which are based on the successions of storms, composed for a series of rainfall events, separated by a short interval of time each. Finally, synthetic ten-minute rainfall time series are generated, which allow to estimate detailed IDF curves and compare them with the estimated IDF based on the recorded data.

Comparison of Adaline and Multiple Linear Regression Methods for Rainfall Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Sutawinaya, IP; Astawa, INGA; Hariyanti, NKD

2018-01-01

Heavy rainfall can cause disaster, therefore need a forecast to predict rainfall intensity. Main factor that cause flooding is there is a high rainfall intensity and it makes the river become overcapacity. This will cause flooding around the area. Rainfall factor is a dynamic factor, so rainfall is very interesting to be studied. In order to support the rainfall forecasting, there are methods that can be used from Artificial Intelligence (AI) to statistic. In this research, we used Adaline for AI method and Regression for statistic method. The more accurate forecast result shows the method that used is good for forecasting the rainfall. Through those methods, we expected which is the best method for rainfall forecasting here.

How would peak rainfall intensity affect runoff predictions using conceptual water balance models?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Yu

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Most hydrological models use continuous daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for streamflow estimation. With the projected increase in mean surface temperature, hydrological processes are set to intensify irrespective of the underlying changes to the mean precipitation. The effect of an increase in rainfall intensity on the long-term water balance is, however, not adequately accounted for in the commonly used hydrological models. This study follows from a previous comparative analysis of a non-stationary daily series of stream flow of a forested watershed (River Rimbaud in the French Alps (area = 1.478 km2 (1966–2006. Non-stationarity in the recorded stream flow occurred as a result of a severe wild fire in 1990. Two daily models (AWBM and SimHyd were initially calibrated for each of three distinct phases in relation to the well documented land disturbance. At the daily and monthly time scales, both models performed satisfactorily with the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE varying from 0.77 to 0.92. When aggregated to the annual time scale, both models underestimated the flow by about 22% with a reduced NSE at about 0.71. Exploratory data analysis was undertaken to relate daily peak hourly rainfall intensity to the discrepancy between the observed and modelled daily runoff amount. Preliminary results show that the effect of peak hourly rainfall intensity on runoff prediction is insignificant, and model performance is unlikely to improve when peak daily precipitation is included. Trend analysis indicated that the large decrease of precipitation when daily precipitation amount exceeded 10–20 mm may have contributed greatly to the decrease in stream flow of this forested watershed.

Monsoon Rainfall and Landslides in Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Dahal, R. K.; Hasegawa, S.; Bhandary, N. P.; Yatabe, R.

2009-12-01

A large number of human settlements on the Nepal Himalayas are situated either on old landslide mass or on landslide-prone areas. As a result, a great number of people are affected by large- and small-scale landslides all over the Himalayas especially during monsoon periods. In Nepal, only in the half monsoon period (June 10 to August 15), 70, 50 and 68 people were killed from landslides in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. In this context, this paper highlights monsoon rainfall and their implications in the Nepal Himalaya. In Nepal, monsoon is major source of rainfall in summer and approximately 80% of the annual total rainfall occurs from June to September. The measured values of mean annual precipitation in Nepal range from a low of approximately 250 mm at area north of the Himalaya to many areas exceeding 6,000 mm. The mean annual rainfall varying between 1500 mm and 2500 mm predominate over most of the country. In Nepal, the daily distribution of precipitation during rainy season is also uneven. Sometime 10% of the total annual precipitation can occur in a single day. Similarly, 50% total annual rainfall also can occur within 10 days of monsoon. This type of uneven distribution plays an important role in triggering many landslides in Nepal. When spatial distribution of landslides was evaluated from record of more than 650 landslides, it is found that more landslides events were concentrated at central Nepal in the area of high mean annual rainfall. When monsoon rainfall and landslide relationship was taken into consideration, it was noticed that a considerable number of landslides were triggered in the Himalaya by continuous rainfall of 3 to 90 days. It has been noticed that continuous rainfall of few days (5 days or 7 days or 10 days) are usually responsible for landsliding in the Nepal Himalaya. Monsoon rains usually fall with interruptions of 2-3 days and are generally characterized by low intensity and long duration. Thus, there is a strong role of

What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa?

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Kaiyu; Sultan, Benjamin; Biasutti, Michela; Baron, Christian; Lobell, David B.

2015-10-01

How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity, the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intraseasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500 mm/yr) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa.

The Influence of Soil Moisture and Wind on Rainfall Distribution and Intensity in Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, R. David; Lynn, Barry H.; Boone, Aaron; Tao, Wei-Kuo

1998-01-01

Land surface processes play a key role in water and energy budgets of the hydrological cycle. For example, the distribution of soil moisture will affect sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn may dramatically influence the location and intensity of precipitation. However, mean wind conditions also strongly influence the distribution of precipitation. The relative importance of soil moisture and wind on rainfall location and intensity remains uncertain. Here, we examine the influence of soil moisture distribution and wind distribution on precipitation in the Florida peninsula using the 3-D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud model Coupled with the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. This study utilizes data collected on 27 July 1991 in central Florida during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE). The idealized numerical experiments consider a block of land (the Florida peninsula) bordered on the east and on the west by ocean. The initial soil moisture distribution is derived from an offline PLACE simulation, and the initial environmental wind profile is determined from the CaPE sounding network. Using the factor separation technique, the precise contribution of soil moisture and wind to rainfall distribution and intensity is determined.

EFFECT OF RAINFALL INTENSITY AND ENERGY ON GULLY ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Also the galling impact of soil erosion on the study locations which were observed to have biophysical and socio-economic ramifications were looked at. Farming is the dominant land use of the area intensifies in two orders of magnitude annually. Also, the high rainfall belts of the study area, frail soil type, undulating ...

Recharge heterogeneity and high intensity rainfall events increase contamination risk for Mediterranean groundwater resources

Science.gov (United States)

Hartmann, Andreas; Jasechko, Scott; Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Andreo, Bartolomé; Barberá, Juan Antonio; Brielmann, Heike; Charlier, Jean-Baptiste; Darling, George; Filippini, Maria; Garvelmann, Jakob; Goldscheider, Nico; Kralik, Martin; Kunstmann, Harald; Ladouche, Bernard; Lange, Jens; Mudarra, Matías; Francisco Martín, José; Rimmer, Alon; Sanchez, Damián; Stumpp, Christine; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Karst develops through the dissolution of carbonate rock and results in pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity of hydrological processes. Karst groundwater in Europe is a major source of fresh water contributing up to half of the total drinking water supply in some countries like Austria or Slovenia. Previous work showed that karstic recharge processes enhance and alter the sensitivity of recharge to climate variability. The enhanced preferential flow from the surface to the aquifer may be followed by enhanced risk of groundwater contamination. In this study we assess the contamination risk of karst aquifers over Europe and the Mediterranean using simulated transit time distributions. Using a new type of semi-distributed model that considers the spatial heterogeneity of karst hydraulic properties, we were able to simulate karstic groundwater recharge including its heterogeneous spatiotemporal dynamics. The model is driven by gridded daily climate data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Transit time distributions are calculated using virtual tracer experiments. We evaluated our simulations by independent information on transit times derived from observed time series of water isotopes of >70 karst springs over Europe. The simulations indicate that, compared to humid, mountain and desert regions, the Mediterranean region shows a stronger risk of contamination in Europe because preferential flow processes are most pronounced given thin soil layers and the seasonal abundance of high intensity rainfall events in autumn and winter. Our modelling approach includes strong simplifications and its results cannot easily be generalized but it still highlights that the combined effects of variable climate and heterogeneous catchment properties constitute a strong risk on water quality.

Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones. Part I: contribution of deep convection and warm conveyor belt

Science.gov (United States)

Flaounas, Emmanouil; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Gray, Suzanne L.; Rysman, Jean-François; Claud, Chantal

2018-04-01

In this study, we provide an insight to the role of deep convection (DC) and the warm conveyor belt (WCB) as leading processes to Mediterranean cyclones' heavy rainfall. To this end, we use reanalysis data, lighting and satellite observations to quantify the relative contribution of DC and the WCB to cyclone rainfall, as well as to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of these processes with respect to the cyclone centre and life cycle. Results for the period 2005-2015 show that the relationship between cyclone rainfall and intensity has high variability and demonstrate that even intense cyclones may produce low rainfall amounts. However, when considering rainfall averages for cyclone intensity bins, a linear relationship was found. We focus on the 500 most intense tracked cyclones (responsible for about 40-50% of the total 11-year Mediterranean rainfall) and distinguish between the ones producing high and low rainfall amounts. DC and the WCB are found to be the main cause of rainfall for the former (producing up to 70% of cyclone rainfall), while, for the latter, DC and the WCB play a secondary role (producing up to 50% of rainfall). Further analysis showed that rainfall due to DC tends to occur close to the cyclones' centre and to their eastern sides, while the WCBs tend to produce rainfall towards the northeast. In fact, about 30% of rainfall produced by DC overlaps with rainfall produced by WCBs but this represents only about 8% of rainfall produced by WCBs. This suggests that a considerable percentage of DC is associated with embedded convection in WCBs. Finally, DC was found to be able to produce higher rain rates than WCBs, exceeding 50 mm in 3-h accumulated rainfall compared to a maximum of the order of 40 mm for WCBs. Our results demonstrate in a climatological framework the relationship between cyclone intensity and processes that lead to heavy rainfall, one of the most prominent environmental risks in the Mediterranean. Therefore, we set

A comprehensive continent-wide regionalisation investigation for daily design rainfall

OpenAIRE

F. Johnson; J. Green

2018-01-01

Study region: Australia. Study focus: Design rainfalls, in the form of Intensity Duration Frequency curves, are the standard input for most flood studies. Methods to combine rainfall data across space are required to provide optimal estimates of design rainfalls and constrain their uncertainty. This paper robustly investigates the use of a variety of regionalization methods to provide Australia wide design rainfall estimates using 8619 high quality rainfall stations. The influence of an indiv...

Optimization of typical diffuse herbicide pollution control by soil amendment configurations under four levels of rainfall intensities.

Science.gov (United States)

Ouyang, Wei; Huang, Weijia; Wei, Peng; Hao, Fanghua; Yu, Yongyong

2016-06-15

Herbicides are a main source of agricultural diffuse pollution due to their wide application in tillage practices. The aim of this study is to optimize the control efficiency of the herbicide atrazine with the aid of modified soil amendments. The soil amendments were composed of a combination of biochar and gravel. The biochar was created from corn straw with a catalytic pyrolysis of ammonium dihydrogen phosphate. The leaching experiments under four rainfall conditions were measured for the following designs: raw soil, soil amended with gravel, biochar individually and together with gravel. The control efficiency of each design was also identified. With the designed equipment, the atrazine content in the contaminant load layer, gravel substrate layer, biochar amendment layer and soil layer was measured under four types of rainfall intensities (1.25 mm/h, 2.50 mm/h, 5.00 mm/h and 10.00 mm/h). Furthermore, the vertical distribution of atrazine in the soil sections was also monitored. The results showed that the herbicide leaching load increased under the highest rainfall intensity in all designs. The soil with the combination of gravel and biochar provided the highest control efficiency of 87.85% on atrazine when the additional proportion of biochar was 3.0%. The performance assessment under the four kinds of rainfall intensity conditions provided the guideline for the soil amendment configuration. The combination of gravel and biochar is recommended as an efficient method for controlling diffuse herbicide pollution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of rainfall intensity and slope steepness on the development of soil erosion in the Southern Cis-Ural region (A model experiment)

Science.gov (United States)

Sobol, N. V.; Gabbasova, I. M.; Komissarov, M. A.

2017-09-01

The effect of rainfall intensity on the erosion of residual calcareous agrogray soils and clay-illuvial agrochernozems in the Southern Cis-Ural region on slopes of different inclination and vegetation type has been studied by simulating with a small-size sprinkler. It has been shown that soil loss linearly depends on rainfall intensity (2, 4, and 6 mm/min) and slope inclination (3° and 7°). When the rainfall intensity and duration, and the slope inclination increase, soil loss by erosion from agrogray soils increases higher than from agrochernozems. On the plowland with a slope of 3°, runoff begins 12, 10, and 5 min, on the average, after the beginning of rains at these intensities. When the slope increases to 7°, runoff begins earlier by 7, 6, and 4 min, respectively. After the beginning of runoff and with its increase by 1 mm, the soil loss from slopes of 3° and 7° reaches 4.2 and 25.7 t/ha on agrogray soils and 1.4 and 4.7 t/ha on agrochernozems, respectively. Fallow soils have higher erosion resistance, and the soil loss little depends on the slope gradient: it gradually increases to 0.3-1.0 t/ha per 1 mm of runoff with increasing rainfall intensity and duration. The content of physical clay in eroded material is higher than in the original soils. Fine fractions prevail in this material, which increases their humus content. The increase in rainfall intensity and duration to 4 and 6 mm/min results in the entrapment of coarse silt and sand by runoff.

Periods of high intensity rainfall and the safety of the Angra dos Reis nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicolli, D.

1993-01-01

The high precipitation rates aggravate the consequences of hypothetical accidental releases of radioactive material from the Angra dos Reis Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), as determined by probabilistic risk assessment. A 30-year rainfall series was analysed, aiming at calculating the probability of occurring a given amount q of precipitation during a certain period of n days. The nine highest precipitation amounts have also been determined. The results show there was a rainier climate in the '50 s and '60 s than in the '70 s and '80 s. The risk of catastrophic landslide has been enhanced as an environmental impact of the construction of the Rio-Santos highway and NPP which have not yet gone through an abnormal rainfall period. It has been suggested that criteria should be established to reduce the nuclear power and shut down the reactor when the precipitation accumulates to a dangerous limit. (author)

Rainfall Erosivity in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale

2015-01-01

Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the Rfactor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national...... and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based...

Characterizing rainfall parameters which influence erosivity in southeastern Nigeria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Obi, M.E.; Salako, F.K.

1993-12-01

An investigation was carried out to characterize some selected parameters which influence rainfall erosivity in southeastern Nigeria. Rainfall amount, distribution, duration, intensity, storm types, energy loads and frequency of rain events in the region were studied using data from stations located in three major agroecological zones. Raindrop size and detaching capacity were evaluated in one of the stations for two months. The mean annual rainfall erosivity values for southeastern Nigeria point to the fact that rainfall tend to be highly erosive. 25 refs, 6 figs, 8 tabs

The Effect of Rainfall Patterns on the Mechanisms of Shallow Slope Failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Suradi

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This paper examines how rainfall patterns affect the mechanisms of shallow slope failure. Numerical modelling, utilising the commercial software SVFlux and SVSlope, was carried out for a coupled analysis of rainfall-induced slope seepage and instability, with reference to a shallow landslide took place in Jabiru, Northern Territory (NT Australia in 2007. Rainfall events were varied in terms of pattern in this analysis. The results revealed that slopes are sensitive to rainfall pattern when the rainfall intensity has a high degree of fluctuation at around the same value as that of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Average rainfall intensity at the beginning of a rainfall period plays a primary role in determining the rate of decrease in initial factor of safety (Fi towards minimum factor of safety (Fmin. The effect of rainfall events on the slope instability is attributed to the amount of rainwater infiltration into slope associated with rainfall pattern.

Regionalization of monthly rainfall erosivity patternsin Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Simon; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos; Meusburger, Katrin

2016-10-01

One major controlling factor of water erosion is rainfall erosivity, which is quantified as the product of total storm energy and a maximum 30 min intensity (I30). Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). As rainfall erosivity is closely correlated with rainfall amount and intensity, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland can be expected to have a regional characteristic and seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This intra-annual variability was mapped by a monthly modeling approach to assess simultaneously spatial and monthly patterns of rainfall erosivity. So far only national seasonal means and regional annual means exist for Switzerland. We used a network of 87 precipitation gauging stations with a 10 min temporal resolution to calculate long-term monthly mean R-factors. Stepwise generalized linear regression (GLM) and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) were used to select spatial covariates which explain the spatial and temporal patterns of the R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The monthly R-factor is mapped by summarizing the predicted R-factor of the regression equation and the corresponding residues of the regression, which are interpolated by ordinary kriging (regression-kriging). As spatial covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included such as snow depths, a combination product of hourly precipitation measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), daily Alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD), and monthly precipitation sums (RhiresM). Topographic parameters (elevation, slope) were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of the 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed a distinct seasonality with the highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) influenced by intense rainfall events. Winter months have the lowest rainfall erosivity. A proportion of 62 % of

The capacity of radar, crowdsourced personal weather stations and commercial microwave links to monitor small scale urban rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Uijlenhoet, R.; de Vos, L. W.; Leijnse, H.; Overeem, A.; Raupach, T. H.; Berne, A.

2017-12-01

For the purpose of urban rainfall monitoring high resolution rainfall measurements are desirable. Typically C-band radar can provide rainfall intensities at km grid cells every 5 minutes. Opportunistic sensing with commercial microwave links yields rainfall intensities over link paths within cities. Additionally, recent developments have made it possible to obtain large amounts of urban in situ measurements from weather amateurs in near real-time. With a known high resolution simulated rainfall event the accuracy of these three techniques is evaluated, taking into account their respective existing layouts and sampling methods. Under ideal measurement conditions, the weather station networks proves to be most promising. For accurate estimation with radar, an appropriate choice for Z-R relationship is vital. Though both the microwave links and the weather station networks are quite dense, both techniques will underestimate rainfall if not at least one link path / station captures the high intensity rainfall peak. The accuracy of each technique improves when considering rainfall at larger scales, especially by increasing time intervals, with the steepest improvements found in microwave links.

Daily rainfall statistics of TRMM and CMORPH: A case for trans-boundary Gandak River basin

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Brijesh; Patra, Kanhu Charan; Lakshmi, Venkat

2016-07-01

Satellite precipitation products offer an opportunity to evaluate extreme events (flood and drought) for areas where rainfall data are not available or rain gauge stations are sparse. In this study, daily precipitation amount and frequency of TRMM 3B42V.7 and CMORPH products have been validated against daily rain gauge precipitation for the monsoon months (June-September or JJAS) from 2005-2010 in the trans-boundary Gandak River basin. The analysis shows that the both TRMM and CMORPH can detect rain and no-rain events, but they fail to capture the intensity of rainfall. The detection of precipitation amount is strongly dependent on the topography. In the plains areas, TRMM product is capable of capturing high-intensity rain events but in the hilly regions, it underestimates the amount of high-intensity rain events. On the other hand, CMORPH entirely fails to capture the high-intensity rain events but does well with low-intensity rain events in both hilly regions as well as the plain region. The continuous variable verification method shows better agreement of TRMM rainfall products with rain gauge data. TRMM fares better in the prediction of probability of occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events, but it underestimates intensity at high altitudes. This implies that TRMM precipitation estimates can be used for flood-related studies only after bias adjustment for the topography.

Equações de chuvas intensas para o estado do Pará Intense rainfall equations for the state of Pará, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodrigo O. R. de M. Souza

2012-09-01

Full Text Available As equações de chuvas intensas têm sido usadas como ferramenta importante para o dimensionamento de obras hidráulicas. Devido à grande carência de informações relativas às equações de chuvas intensas, o presente trabalho teve como objetivo a obtenção das relações de intensidade, duração e frequência de precipitação pluvial para o Estado do Pará, utilizando-se a metodologia da desagregação da chuva de 24 h. Foram utilizadas séries históricas de dados pluviométricos de 74 cidades do Estado do Pará, obtidas no Sistema de Informações Hidrológicas da Agência Nacional de Águas-ANA. As equações de intensidade-duração-frequência foram devidamente ajustadas e apresentaram bom ajuste, com coeficientes de determinação acima de 0,99. A maioria das estações (51,4% apresentou intensidade de precipitação entre 90 e 110 mm h-1, para uma duração de chuva de 30 min e um tempo de retorno de 15 anos. Pode-se perceber uma concentração das maiores precipitações na região próxima ao litoral do nordeste paraense e no sudeste da Ilha do Marajó.The intense rainfall equations have been used as an important tool for design of hydraulic structures. Considering the lack of intense rainfall equations, this study aimed to determine the relations of intensity, duration and frequency of intense rainfall in the Pará State (Brazil, using the one-day rain disaggregation method. In this research rainfall data of 74 cities in the State of Pará were used, obtained from the Hydrological Information System of the National Water Agency-ANA. The equations of intensity-duration-frequency were adjusted and presented good adjustment with coefficients of determination above 0.99. Most stations (51.4% showed intensity of precipitation between 90 and 110 mm h-1 for duration of 30 min and rainfall return period of 15 years. The highest rainfall intensities were in the region near the northeast coast of Pará State and southeast of the Marajo

Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Álvaro José Back

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

2015-04-01

To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

Estimation of Rainfall Erosivity via 1-Minute to Hourly Rainfall Data from Taipei, Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Ting-Yin; Yang, Ssu-Yao; Jan, Chyan-Deng

2017-04-01

Soil erosion is a natural process on hillslopes that threats people's life and properties, having a considerable environmental and economic implications for soil degradation, agricultural activity and water quality. The rainfall erosivity factor (R-factor) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), composed of total kinetic energy (E) and the maximum 30-min rainfall intensity (I30), is widely used as an indicator to measure the potential risks of soil loss caused by rainfall at a regional scale. This R factor can represent the detachment and entrainment involved in climate conditions on hillslopes, but lack of 30-min rainfall intensity data usually lead to apply this factor more difficult in many regions. In recent years, fixed-interval, hourly rainfall data is readily available and widely used due to the development of automatic weather stations. Here we assess the estimations of R, E, and I30 based on 1-, 5-, 10-, 15-, 30-, 60-minute rainfall data, and hourly rainfall data obtained from Taipei weather station during 2004 to 2010. Results show that there is a strong correlation among R-factors estimated from different interval rainfall data. Moreover, the shorter time-interval rainfall data (e.g., 1-min) yields larger value of R-factor. The conversion factors of rainfall erosivity (ratio of values estimated from the resolution lower than 30-min rainfall data to those estimated from 60-min and hourly rainfall data, respectively) range from 1.85 to 1.40 (resp. from 1.89 to 1.02) for 60-min (resp. hourly) rainfall data as the time resolution increasing from 30-min to 1-min. This paper provides useful information on estimating R-factor when hourly rainfall data is only available.

Flood risk reduction and flow buffering as ecosystem services - Part 2: Land use and rainfall intensity effects in Southeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

van Noordwijk, Meine; Tanika, Lisa; Lusiana, Betha

2017-05-01

Watersheds buffer the temporal pattern of river flow relative to the temporal pattern of rainfall. This ecosystem service is inherent to geology and climate, but buffering also responds to human use and misuse of the landscape. Buffering can be part of management feedback loops if salient, credible and legitimate indicators are used. The flow persistence parameter Fp in a parsimonious recursive model of river flow (Part 1, van Noordwijk et al., 2017) couples the transmission of extreme rainfall events (1 - Fp), to the annual base-flow fraction of a watershed (Fp). Here we compare Fp estimates from four meso-scale watersheds in Indonesia (Cidanau, Way Besai and Bialo) and Thailand (Mae Chaem), with varying climate, geology and land cover history, at a decadal timescale. The likely response in each of these four to variation in rainfall properties (including the maximum hourly rainfall intensity) and land cover (comparing scenarios with either more or less forest and tree cover than the current situation) was explored through a basic daily water-balance model, GenRiver. This model was calibrated for each site on existing data, before being used for alternative land cover and rainfall parameter settings. In both data and model runs, the wet-season (3-monthly) Fp values were consistently lower than dry-season values for all four sites. Across the four catchments Fp values decreased with increasing annual rainfall, but specific aspects of watersheds, such as the riparian swamp (peat soils) in Cidanau reduced effects of land use change in the upper watershed. Increasing the mean rainfall intensity (at constant monthly totals for rainfall) around the values considered typical for each landscape was predicted to cause a decrease in Fp values by between 0.047 (Bialo) and 0.261 (Mae Chaem). Sensitivity of Fp to changes in land use change plus changes in rainfall intensity depends on other characteristics of the watersheds, and generalisations made on the basis of one or two

Modeling jointly low, moderate, and heavy rainfall intensities without a threshold selection

KAUST Repository

Naveau, Philippe

2016-04-09

In statistics, extreme events are often defined as excesses above a given large threshold. This definition allows hydrologists and flood planners to apply Extreme-Value Theory (EVT) to their time series of interest. Even in the stationary univariate context, this approach has at least two main drawbacks. First, working with excesses implies that a lot of observations (those below the chosen threshold) are completely disregarded. The range of precipitation is artificially shopped down into two pieces, namely large intensities and the rest, which necessarily imposes different statistical models for each piece. Second, this strategy raises a nontrivial and very practical difficultly: how to choose the optimal threshold which correctly discriminates between low and heavy rainfall intensities. To address these issues, we propose a statistical model in which EVT results apply not only to heavy, but also to low precipitation amounts (zeros excluded). Our model is in compliance with EVT on both ends of the spectrum and allows a smooth transition between the two tails, while keeping a low number of parameters. In terms of inference, we have implemented and tested two classical methods of estimation: likelihood maximization and probability weighed moments. Last but not least, there is no need to choose a threshold to define low and high excesses. The performance and flexibility of this approach are illustrated on simulated and hourly precipitation recorded in Lyon, France.

Rainfall control of debris-flow triggering in the Réal Torrent, Southern French Prealps

Science.gov (United States)

Bel, Coraline; Liébault, Frédéric; Navratil, Oldrich; Eckert, Nicolas; Bellot, Hervé; Fontaine, Firmin; Laigle, Dominique

2017-08-01

This paper investigates the occurrence of debris flow due to rainfall forcing in the Réal Torrent, a very active debris flow-prone catchment in the Southern French Prealps. The study is supported by a 4-year record of flow responses and rainfall events, from three high-frequency monitoring stations equipped with geophones, flow stage sensors, digital cameras, and rain gauges measuring rainfall at 5-min intervals. The classic method of rainfall intensity-duration (ID) threshold was used, and a specific emphasis was placed on the objective identification of rainfall events, as well as on the discrimination of flow responses observed above the ID threshold. The results show that parameters used to identify rainfall events significantly affect the ID threshold and are likely to explain part of the threshold variability reported in the literature. This is especially the case regarding the minimum duration of rain interruption (MDRI) between two distinct rainfall events. In the Réal Torrent, a 3-h MDRI appears to be representative of the local rainfall regime. A systematic increase in the ID threshold with drainage area was also observed from the comparison of the three stations, as well as from the compilation of data from experimental debris-flow catchments. A logistic regression used to separate flow responses above the ID threshold, revealed that the best predictors are the 5-min maximum rainfall intensity, the 48-h antecedent rainfall, the rainfall amount and the number of days elapsed since the end of winter (used as a proxy of sediment supply). This emphasizes the critical role played by short intense rainfall sequences that are only detectable using high time-resolution rainfall records. It also highlights the significant influence of antecedent conditions and the seasonal fluctuations of sediment supply.

Accuracy of rainfall measurement for scales of hydrological interest

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. J. Wood

2000-01-01

Full Text Available The dense network of 49 raingauges over the 135 km2 Brue catchment in Somerset, England is used to examine the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained from raingauges and from weather radar. Methods for data quality control and classification of precipitation types are first described. A super-dense network comprising eight gauges within a 2 km grid square is employed to obtain a 'true value' of rainfall against which the 2 km radar grid and a single 'typical gauge' estimate can be compared. Accuracy is assessed as a function of rainfall intensity, for different periods of time-integration (15 minutes, 1 hour and 1 day and for two 8-gauge networks in areas of low and high relief. In a similar way, the catchment gauge network is used to provide the 'true catchment rainfall' and the accuracy of a radar estimate (an area-weighted average of radar pixel values and a single 'typical gauge' estimate of catchment rainfall evaluated as a function of rainfall intensity. A single gauge gives a standard error of estimate for rainfall in a 2 km square and over the catchment of 33% and 65% respectively, at rain rates of 4 mm in 15 minutes. Radar data at 2 km resolution give corresponding errors of 50% and 55%. This illustrates the benefit of using radar when estimating catchment scale rainfall. A companion paper (Wood et al., 2000 considers the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained using raingauge and radar in combination. Keywords: rainfall, accuracy, raingauge, radar

Probabilistic clustering of rainfall condition for landslide triggering

Science.gov (United States)

Rossi, Mauro; Luciani, Silvia; Cesare Mondini, Alessandro; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Valigi, Daniela; Guzzetti, Fausto

2013-04-01

Landslides are widespread natural and man made phenomena. They are triggered by earthquakes, rapid snow melting, human activities, but mostly by typhoons and intense or prolonged rainfall precipitations. In Italy mostly they are triggered by intense precipitation. The prediction of landslide triggered by rainfall precipitations over large areas is commonly based on the exploitation of empirical models. Empirical landslide rainfall thresholds are used to identify rainfall conditions for the possible landslide initiation. It's common practice to define rainfall thresholds by assuming a power law lower boundary in the rainfall intensity-duration or cumulative rainfall-duration space above which landslide can occur. The boundary is defined considering rainfall conditions associated to landslide phenomena using heuristic approaches, and doesn't consider rainfall events not causing landslides. Here we present a new fully automatic method to identify the probability of landslide occurrence associated to rainfall conditions characterized by measures of intensity or cumulative rainfall and rainfall duration. The method splits the rainfall events of the past in two groups: a group of events causing landslides and its complementary, then estimate their probabilistic distributions. Next, the probabilistic membership of the new event to one of the two clusters is estimated. The method doesn't assume a priori any threshold model, but simple exploits the real empirical distribution of rainfall events. The approach was applied in the Umbria region, Central Italy, where a catalogue of landslide timing, were obtained through the search of chronicles, blogs and other source of information in the period 2002-2012. The approach was tested using rain gauge measures and satellite rainfall estimates (NASA TRMM-v6), allowing in both cases the identification of the rainfall condition triggering landslides in the region. Compared to the other existing threshold definition methods, the prosed

Effect of variations in rainfall intensity on slope stability in Singapore

OpenAIRE

Christofer Kristo; Harianto Rahardjo; Alfrendo Satyanaga

2017-01-01

Numerous scientific evidence has given credence to the true existence and deleterious impacts of climate change. One aspect of climate change is the variations in rainfall patterns, which affect the flux boundary condition across ground surface. A possible disastrous consequence of this change is the occurrence of rainfall-induced slope failures. This paper aims to investigate the variations in rainfall patterns in Singapore and its effect on slope stability. Singapore's historical rainfall d...

Rainfall simulators - innovations seeking rainfall uniformity and automatic flow rate measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Miroslav; Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Luděk; Dostál, Tomáš; Krása, Josef

2016-04-01

Field rainfall simulators are used worldwide for many experimental purposes, such as runoff generation and soil erosion research. At CTU in Prague a laboratory simulator with swinging nozzles VeeJet has been operated since 2001. Since 2012 an additional terrain simulator is being used with 4 fixed FullJet 40WSQ nozzles with 2,4 m spacing and operating over two simultaneously sprinkled experimental plots sizing 8x2 and 1x1 m. In parallel to other research projects a specific problem was solved: improving rainfall spatial uniformity and overall intensity and surface runoff measurements. These fundamental variables significantly affect investigated processes as well as resulting water balance of the plot, therefore they need to be determined as accurately as possible. Although the original nozzles setting produced (commonly used) Christiansen uniformity index CU over 80 %, detailed measurements proved this index insufficient and showed many unrequired rainfall extremes within the plot. Moreover the number of rainfall intensity scenarios was limited and some of them required problematic multi-pressure operation of the water distribution system. Therefore the simulator was subjected to many substantial changes in 2015. Innovations ranged from pump intensification to control unit upgrade. As essential change was considered increase in number of nozzles to 9 in total and reducing their spacing to 1,2 m. However new uniformity measurements did not bring any significant improvement. Tested scenarios showed equal standard deviations of interpolated intensity rasters and equal or slightly lower CU index. Imperfections of sprinkling nozzles were found to be the limiting factor. Still many other benefits were brought with the new setup. Whole experimental plot 10x2 m is better covered with the rainfall while the water consumption is retained. Nozzles are triggered in triplets, which enables more rainfall intensity scenarios. Water distribution system is more stable due to

Constraining relationships between rainfall and landsliding with satellite derived rainfall measurements and landslide inventories.

Science.gov (United States)

Marc, Odin; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Stumpf, Andre; Gosset, Marielle

2017-04-01

In mountainous and hilly regions, landslides are an important source of damage and fatalities. Landsliding correlates with extreme rainfall events and may increase with climate change. Still, how precipitation drives landsliding at regional scales is poorly understood quantitatively in part because constraining simultaneously landsliding and rainfall across large areas is challenging. By combining optical images acquired from satellite observation platforms and rainfall measurements from satellite constellations we are building a database of landslide events caused by with single storm events. We present results from storm-induced landslides from Brazil, Taiwan, Micronesia, Central America, Europe and the USA. We present scaling laws between rainfall metrics derived by satellites (total rainfall, mean intensity, antecedent rainfall, ...) and statistical descriptors of landslide events (total area and volume, size distribution, mean runout, ...). Total rainfall seems to be the most important parameter driving non-linearly the increase in total landslide number, and area and volume. The maximum size of bedrock landslides correlates with the total number of landslides, and thus with total rainfall, within the limits of available topographic relief. In contrast, the power-law scaling exponent of the size distribution, controlling the relative abundance of small and large landslides, appears rather independent of the rainfall metrics (intensity, duration and total rainfall). These scaling laws seem to explain both the intra-storm pattern of landsliding, at the scale of satellite rainfall measurements ( 25kmx25km), and the different impacts observed for various storms. Where possible, we evaluate the limits of standard rainfall products (TRMM, GPM, GSMaP) by comparing them to in-situ data. Then we discuss how slope distribution and other geomorphic factors (lithology, soil presence,...) modulate these scaling laws. Such scaling laws at the basin scale and based only on a

Rainfall: State of the Science

Science.gov (United States)

Testik, Firat Y.; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

Rainfall: State of the Science offers the most up-to-date knowledge on the fundamental and practical aspects of rainfall. Each chapter, self-contained and written by prominent scientists in their respective fields, provides three forms of information: fundamental principles, detailed overview of current knowledge and description of existing methods, and emerging techniques and future research directions. The book discusses • Rainfall microphysics: raindrop morphodynamics, interactions, size distribution, and evolution • Rainfall measurement and estimation: ground-based direct measurement (disdrometer and rain gauge), weather radar rainfall estimation, polarimetric radar rainfall estimation, and satellite rainfall estimation • Statistical analyses: intensity-duration-frequency curves, frequency analysis of extreme events, spatial analyses, simulation and disaggregation, ensemble approach for radar rainfall uncertainty, and uncertainty analysis of satellite rainfall products The book is tailored to be an indispensable reference for researchers, practitioners, and graduate students who study any aspect of rainfall or utilize rainfall information in various science and engineering disciplines.

Reducing Production Basis Risk through Rainfall Intensity Frequency (RIF) Indexes: Global Sensitivity Analysis' Implication on Policy Design

Science.gov (United States)

Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus; Huffaker, Ray; Munoz-Carpena, Rafael

2016-04-01

The weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions with swift compensation at affordable premium thanks to its minimal adverse selection and moral hazard. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing causes the presence of "production basis risk" that the selected weather indexes and their thresholds do not correspond to actual damages. To reduce basis risk without additional data collection cost, we propose the use of rain intensity and frequency as indexes as it could offer better protection at the lower premium by avoiding basis risk-strike trade-off inherent in the total rainfall index. We present empirical evidences and modeling results that even under the similar cumulative rainfall and temperature environment, yield can significantly differ especially for drought sensitive crops. We further show that deriving the trigger level and payoff function from regression between historical yield and total rainfall data may pose significant basis risk owing to their non-unique relationship in the insured range of rainfall. Lastly, we discuss the design of index insurance in terms of contract specifications based on the results from global sensitivity analysis.

Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

OpenAIRE

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Høegh Ravn, Nanna; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Madsen, H.; Drews, Martin

2015-01-01

The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and thus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and...

Predicting rainfall erosivity by momentum and kinetic energy in Mediterranean environment

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Carollo, Francesco G.; Ferro, Vito; Serio, Maria A.

2018-05-01

Rainfall erosivity is an index that describes the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion and it is used around the world for assessing and predicting soil loss on agricultural lands. Erosivity can be represented in terms of both rainfall momentum and kinetic energy, both calculated per unit time and area. Contrasting results on the representativeness of these two variables are available: some authors stated that momentum and kinetic energy are practically interchangeable in soil loss estimation while other found that kinetic energy is the most suitable expression of rainfall erosivity. The direct and continuous measurements of momentum and kinetic energy by a disdrometer allow also to establish a relationship with rainfall intensity at the study site. At first in this paper a comparison between the momentum-rainfall intensity relationships measured at Palermo and El Teularet by an optical disdrometer is presented. For a fixed rainfall intensity the measurements showed that the rainfall momentum values measured at the two experimental sites are not coincident. However both datasets presented a threshold value of rainfall intensity over which the rainfall momentum assumes a quasi-constant value. Then the reliability of a theoretically deduced relationship, linking momentum, rainfall intensity and median volume diameter, is positively verified using measured raindrop size distributions. An analysis to assess which variable, momentum or kinetic energy per unit area and time, is the best predictor of erosivity in Italy and Spain was also carried out. This investigation highlighted that the rainfall kinetic energy per unit area and time can be substituted by rainfall momentum as index for estimating the rainfall erosivity, and this result does not depend on the site where precipitation occurs. Finally, rainfall intensity measurements and soil loss data collected from the bare plots equipped at Sparacia experimental area were used to verify the reliability of some

Potential of deterministic and geostatistical rainfall interpolation under high rainfall variability and dry spells: case of Kenya's Central Highlands

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Kisaka, M. Oscar; Mucheru-Muna, M.; Ngetich, F. K.; Mugwe, J.; Mugendi, D.; Mairura, F.; Shisanya, C.; Makokha, G. L.

2016-04-01

Drier parts of Kenya's Central Highlands endure persistent crop failure and declining agricultural productivity. These have, in part, attributed to high temperatures, prolonged dry spells and erratic rainfall. Understanding spatial-temporal variability of climatic indices such as rainfall at seasonal level is critical for optimal rain-fed agricultural productivity and natural resource management in the study area. However, the predominant setbacks in analysing hydro-meteorological events are occasioned by either lack, inadequate, or inconsistent meteorological data. Like in most other places, the sole sources of climatic data in the study region are scarce and only limited to single stations, yet with persistent missing/unrecorded data making their utilization a challenge. This study examined seasonal anomalies and variability in rainfall, drought occurrence and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in the drier regions of eastern Kenyan. Rainfall data from five stations (Machang'a, Kiritiri, Kiambere and Kindaruma and Embu) were sourced from both the Kenya Meteorology Department and on-site primary recording. Owing to some experimental work ongoing, automated recording for primary dailies in Machang'a have been ongoing since the year 2000 to date; thus, Machang'a was treated as reference (for period of record) station for selection of other stations in the region. The other stations had data sets of over 15 years with missing data of less than 10 % as required by the world meteorological organization whose quality check is subject to the Centre for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) through MeteoSwiss and EMPA bodies. The dailies were also subjected to homogeneity testing to evaluate whether they came from the same population. Rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance and probability were utilized in the analyses of rainfall variability. Spline, kriging and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and

Rainfall Characteristic on the Slopes of Mount Merapi Region (Empirical Formula, Duration, Distribution, And Critical Line Woro River

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Pudak Juni Laksana

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Debris flow on the slopes of Mount Merapi area became a serious natural disasters because it has great destructive force and velocity. Rainfall with a certain intensity and duration is one component triggering debris flow. Rainfall has variability of the temporal and spatial characteristics influenced by various factors, such as topography and climate. Dharma (2012 suggested to define the characteristics of the intensity of rainfall using rainfall data with a shorter duration with statistical tests to establish the best empirical IDF formula.  This research was using of 30 minutes rainfall data for short duration (<3 hours and a spreadsheet software representing duration and distribution of the rainfall. The most appropriate rainfall intensity formula was done by the empirical IDF formula, i.e. Sherman, Kimijima, Hasper and Mononobe. Rainfall intensity analysis applied Frequency Analysis Software (based on Microsoft Excel. Debris flow occurrence was analyzed using MLIT for method A to establish standard rainfall index.  Sherman formula performed the best fit to the IDF characteristics of rainfall in the region of the slopes of Mount Merapi. Rainfall distribution pattern showed high intensity rainfall in the first hour and then decreased in the next hour which means distribution for the duration of 3 hours, 12%, 28%, 25%, 16%, 12%, and 7%, respectively with an interval of 30 minutes. Based on critical line, 5 mm of standard rainfall index was gained in the case of warning (R1 and 28 mm in the case of evacuation (R2.

Satellite-based estimation of rainfall erosivity for Africa

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vrieling, A.; Sterk, G.; Jong, S.M. de

2010-01-01

Rainfall erosivity is a measure for the erosive force of rainfall. Rainfall kinetic energy determines the erosivity and is in turn greatly dependent on rainfall intensity. Attempts for its large-scale mapping are rare. Most are based on interpolation of erosivity values derived from rain gauge

Prediction of Rainfall-Induced Landslides

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Nadim, F.; Sandersen, F.

2009-12-01

Rainfall-induced landslides can be triggered by two main mechanisms: shear failure due to build-up of pore water pressure and erosion by surface water runoff when flow velocity exceeds a critical value. Field measurements indicate that, in the initial phase, the slip surface of a landslide often occurs along the top of a relatively impermeable layer located at some depth within the soil profile, e.g. at the contact with a shallow underlying bedrock or parent rock. The shear strength along this surface and hence the stability of the slope is governed by the pore water pressure. The pore pressure is in turn controlled by water seepage through the slope, either from infiltrated rain, or from groundwater that follows bedrock joints and soil layers with high permeability. When the infiltration rate of the underlying layer is too low for further downward penetration of water or when a wetting front is produced, pore water pressure builds up, reducing the soil shear strength. During high intensity rainfall, surface water runoff will exert shear stresses on the bed material. De-pending on the grain size distribution and specific gravity of the material, erosion might occur when the flow velocity exceeds a critical value. As erosion progresses and sediment concentration increases, the flow regime may become unstable with heavy erosion at high flow velocity locations triggering a debris flow. In many cases, previous landslides along steep gully walls have fed an abundance of loose soil material into the gullies. Landslides along gully walls that obstruct the water transport may also trigger debris flows when the landslide-dam collapses, creating a surge downstream. Both the long-duration (1 or more days) and short-duration precipitation (of the order of 1 hour) are significant in the triggering of shallow landslides, since the critical short-duration rainfall intensity reduces as the antecedent accumulated rainfall increases. Experiences in Norway indicate that the maxi

Automated reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for shallow landslides

Science.gov (United States)

Vessia, G.; Parise, M.; Brunetti, M. T.; Peruccacci, S.; Rossi, M.; Vennari, C.; Guzzetti, F.

2014-04-01

Over the last 40 years, many contributions have been devoted to identifying the empirical rainfall thresholds (e.g. intensity vs. duration ID, cumulated rainfall vs. duration ED, cumulated rainfall vs. intensity EI) for the initiation of shallow landslides, based on local as well as worldwide inventories. Although different methods to trace the threshold curves have been proposed and discussed in literature, a systematic study to develop an automated procedure to select the rainfall event responsible for the landslide occurrence has rarely been addressed. Nonetheless, objective criteria for estimating the rainfall responsible for the landslide occurrence (effective rainfall) play a prominent role on the threshold values. In this paper, two criteria for the identification of the effective rainfall events are presented: (1) the first is based on the analysis of the time series of rainfall mean intensity values over one month preceding the landslide occurrence, and (2) the second on the analysis of the trend in the time function of the cumulated mean intensity series calculated from the rainfall records measured through rain gauges. The two criteria have been implemented in an automated procedure written in R language. A sample of 100 shallow landslides collected in Italy by the CNR-IRPI research group from 2002 to 2012 has been used to calibrate the proposed procedure. The cumulated rainfall E and duration D of rainfall events that triggered the documented landslides are calculated through the new procedure and are fitted with power law in the (D,E) diagram. The results are discussed by comparing the (D,E) pairs calculated by the automated procedure and the ones by the expert method.

Analysis of rainfall infiltration law in unsaturated soil slope.

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Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

2014-01-01

In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering the characteristics of slope and rainfall, the key factors affecting rainfall infiltration of slope, including hydraulic properties, water storage capacity (θs - θr), soil types, rainfall intensities, and antecedent and subsequent infiltration rates on unsaturated soil slope, are discussed by using theory analysis and numerical simulation technology. Based on critical factors changing, this paper presents three calculation models of rainfall infiltrability for unsaturated slope, including (1) infiltration model considering rainfall intensity; (2) effective rainfall model considering antecedent rainfall; (3) infiltration model considering comprehensive factors. Based on the technology of system response, the relationship of rainfall and infiltration is described, and the prototype of regression model of rainfall infiltration is given, in order to determine the amount of rain penetration during a rain process.

Application of flood-intensity-duration curve, rainfall-intensity-duration curve and time of concentration to analyze the pattern of storms and their corresponding floods for the natural flood events

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Kim, Nam Won; Shin, Mun-Ju; Lee, Jeong Eun

2016-04-01

The analysis of storm effects on floods is essential step for designing hydraulic structure and flood plain. There are previous studies for analyzing the relationship between the storm patterns and peak flow, flood volume and durations for various sizes of the catchments, but they are not enough to analyze the natural storm effects on flood responses quantitatively. This study suggests a novel method of quantitative analysis using unique factors extracted from the time series of storms and floods to investigate the relationship between natural storms and their corresponding flood responses. We used a distributed rainfall-runoff model of Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) to generate the simulated flow and areal rainfall for 50 catchments in Republic of Korea size from 5.6 km2 to 1584.2 km2, which are including overlapped dependent catchments and non-overlapped independent catchments. The parameters of the GRM model were calibrated to get the good model performances of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Then Flood-Intensity-Duration Curve (FIDC) and Rainfall-Intensity-Duration Curve (RIDC) were generated by Flood-Duration-Frequency and Intensity-Duration-Frequency methods respectively using the time series of hydrographs and hyetographs. Time of concentration developed for the Korea catchments was used as a consistent measure to extract the unique factors from the FIDC and RIDC over the different size of catchments. These unique factors for the storms and floods were analyzed against the different size of catchments to investigate the natural storm effects on floods. This method can be easily used to get the intuition of the natural storm effects with various patterns on flood responses. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

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Mayowa, Olaniya Olusegun; Pour, Sahar Hadi; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Mohsenipour, Morteza; Harun, Sobri Bin; Heryansyah, Arien; Ismail, Tarmizi

2015-12-01

The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971-2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

Rainfall variation and child health: effect of rainfall on diarrhea among under 5 children in Rwanda, 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Mukabutera, Assumpta; Thomson, Dana; Murray, Megan; Basinga, Paulin; Nyirazinyoye, Laetitia; Atwood, Sidney; Savage, Kevin P; Ngirimana, Aimable; Hedt-Gauthier, Bethany L

2016-08-05

Diarrhea among children under 5 years of age has long been a major public health concern. Previous studies have suggested an association between rainfall and diarrhea. Here, we examined the association between Rwandan rainfall patterns and childhood diarrhea and the impact of household sanitation variables on this relationship. We derived a series of rain-related variables in Rwanda based on daily rainfall measurements and hydrological models built from daily precipitation measurements collected between 2009 and 2011. Using these data and the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey database, we measured the association between total monthly rainfall, monthly rainfall intensity, runoff water and anomalous rainfall and the occurrence of diarrhea in children under 5 years of age. Among the 8601 children under 5 years of age included in the survey, 13.2 % reported having diarrhea within the 2 weeks prior to the survey. We found that higher levels of runoff were protective against diarrhea compared to low levels among children who lived in households with unimproved toilet facilities (OR = 0.54, 95 % CI: [0.34, 0.87] for moderate runoff and OR = 0.50, 95 % CI: [0.29, 0.86] for high runoff) but had no impact among children in household with improved toilets. Our finding that children in households with unimproved toilets were less likely to report diarrhea during periods of high runoff highlights the vulnerabilities of those living without adequate sanitation to the negative health impacts of environmental events.

The impact of Indian Ocean high pressure system on rainfall and stream flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rehman, S.; Nasir, H.; Zia, S.S.; Ansari, W.A.; Salam, K.; Tayyab, N.

2012-01-01

Centre of Action approach is very useful in getting insight of rainfall and stream flow variability of specific region. Hameed et al. showed that Inter-annual variability of Gulf Stream north wall is influenced by low Icelandic pressure system and has more statistically significant correlation than North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with longitude of Icelandic low. This study also aims to explore possible relationships between rainfall and stream flow in Collie river catchment in Southwest Western Australia (SWWA) with Indian Ocean high pressure dynamics. The relationship between rainfall and stream flow with Indian Ocean high pressure system have been investigated using correlation analysis for early winter season (MJJA), lag correlation for MJJA versus SOND rainfall and stream flow are also calculated and found significant at 95% confidence level. By investigating the relationship between COA indices with rainfall and stream flow over the period 1976-2008, significant correlations suggests that rainfall and stream flow in Collie river basin is strongly influenced by COA indices. Multiple correlations between rainfall and stream flow with Indian Ocean high pressure (IOHPS and IOHLN) is 0.7 and 0.6 respectively. Centers of Action (COA) indices explain 51% and 36% of rainfall and stream flow respectively. The correlation between rainfall and stream flow with IOHPS is -0.4 and -0.3 whereas, with IOHLN is -0.47 and -0.52 respectively. (author)

Rainfall-threshold conditions for landslides in a humid-tropical system

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, Matthew C.; Simon, Andrew

1993-01-01

Landslides are triggered by factors such as heavy rainfall, seismic activity, and construction on hillslopes. The leading cause of landslides in Puerto Rico is intense and/or prolonged rainfall. A rainfall threshold for rainfall-triggered landsliding is delimited by 256 storms that occurred between 1959 and 1991 in the central mountains of Puerto Rico, where mean annual rainfall is close to or in excess of 2,000 mm. Forty one of the 256 storms produced intense and/or prolonged rainfall that resulted in tens to hundreds of landslides. A threshold fitted to the lower boundary of the field defined by landslide-triggering storms is expressed as

Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.

2016-02-01

Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as

A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

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U. Haberlandt

2008-12-01

Full Text Available For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series.

First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in

Potential rainfall-intensity and pH-driven shifts in the apparent fluorescent composition of dissolved organic matter in rainwater.

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Zhou, Yongqiang; Yao, Xiaolong; Zhang, Yibo; Shi, Kun; Zhang, Yunlin; Jeppesen, Erik; Gao, Guang; Zhu, Guangwei; Qin, Boqiang

2017-05-01

Perturbations of rainwater chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) fluorescence induced by changes in rainfall intensity and pH were investigated by field observations and laboratory pH titrations. Microbial humic-like fluorophores dominated the rainwater CDOM pool, followed by tryptophan-like and tyrosine-like substances. Increased rainfall intensity had notable dilution effects on all six fluorescent components (C1-C6) identified using parallel factor (PARAFAC) analysis, the effect being especially pronounced for the microbial humic-like C1, tryptophan-like C3, and tyrosine-like C5. The results also indicated that increasing pH from 7 to 9 led to decreased fluorescence intensity (F max ) of all the six components, while a pH increase from 5 to 7, resulted in increasing F max of terrestrial humic-like C2, tyrosine-like C5, and tryptophan-like C6 and decreasing microbial humic-like C1, tryptophan-like C3, and fulvic-like C4. Two-dimensional correlation spectroscopy (2D-COS) demonstrated that synchronous fluorescence responded first to pH modifications at fulvic-like wavelength (λ Ex /λ Em  = ∼316/416 nm), followed by tyrosine-like wavelength (λ Ex /λ Em  = ∼204/304 nm), tryptophan-like wavelength (λ Ex /λ Em  = ∼226/326 nm), microbial humic-like wavelength (∼295/395 nm), and finally terrestrial humic-like wavelength (∼360/460 nm). Our results suggest that a decrease in areas affected by acid rain in South China occurring at present may possibly result in apparent compositional changes of CDOM fluorescence. The decreased rainfall in South-West China and increased rainfall in North-West China during the past five decades may possibly accordingly result in increased and decreased F max of all the six components identified in South-West and North-West China, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-Resolution Discharge Forecasting for Snowmelt and Rainfall Mixed Events

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Tomasz Berezowski

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Discharge events induced by mixture of snowmelt and rainfall are strongly nonlinear due to consequences of rain-on-snow phenomena and snowmelt dependence on energy balance. However, they received relatively little attention, especially in high-resolution discharge forecasting. In this study, we use Random Forests models for 24 h discharge forecasting in 1 h resolution in a 105.9 km 2 urbanized catchment in NE Poland: Biala River. The forcing data are delivered by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model in 1 h temporal and 4 × 4 km spatial resolutions. The discharge forecasting models are set in two scenarios with snowmelt and rainfall and rainfall only predictors in order to highlight the effect of snowmelt on the results (both scenarios use also pre-forecast discharge based predictors. We show that inclusion of snowmelt decrease the forecast errors for longer forecasts’ lead times. Moreover, importance of discharge based predictors is higher in the rainfall only models then in the snowmelt and rainfall models. We conclude that the role of snowmelt for discharge forecasting in mixed snowmelt and rainfall environments is in accounting for nonlinear physical processes, such as initial wetting and rain on snow, which cannot be properly modelled by rainfall only.

Conditions for the Occurrence of Slaking and Other Disaggregation Processes under Rainfall

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Frédéric Darboux

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Under rainfall conditions, aggregates may suffer breakdown by different mechanisms. Slaking is a very efficient breakdown mechanism. However, its occurrence under rainfall conditions has not been demonstrated. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of slaking under rain. Two soils with silt loam (SL and clay loam (CL textures were analyzed. Two classes of aggregates were utilized: 1–3 mm and 3–5 mm. The aggregates were submitted to stability tests and to high intensity (90 mm·h−1 and low intensity (28 mm·h−1 rainfalls, and different kinetic energy impacts (large and small raindrops using a rainfall simulator. The fragment size distributions were determined both after the stability tests and rainfall simulations, with the calculation of the mean weighted diameter (MWD. After the stability tests the SL presented smaller MWDs for all stability tests when compared to the CL. In both soils the lowest MWD was obtained using the fast wetting test, showing they were sensitive to slaking. For both soils and the two aggregate classes evaluated, the MWDs were recorded from the early beginning of the rainfall event under the four rainfall conditions. The occurrence of slaking in the evaluated soils was not verified under the simulated rainfall conditions studied. The early disaggregation was strongly related to the cumulative kinetic energy, advocating for the occurrence of mechanical breakdown. Because slaking requires a very high wetting rate on initially dry aggregates, it seems unlikely to occur under field conditions, except perhaps for furrow irrigation.

Detection of Anomalies and Changes of Rainfall in the Yellow River Basin, China, through Two Graphical Methods

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Hao Wu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study aims to reveal rainfall anomalies and changes over the Yellow River Basin due to the fragile ecosystem and rainfall-related disasters. Common trend analyses relate to overall trends in mean values. Therefore, we used two graphical methods: the quantile perturbation method (QPM was used to investigate anomalies over time in extreme rainfall, and the partial trend method (PTM was used to analyze rainfall changes at different intensities. A nonparametric bootstrap procedure is proposed in order to identify significant PTM indices. The QPM indicated prevailing positive anomalies in extreme daily rainfall 50 years ago and in the middle reaches during the 1970s and 1980s. The PTM detected significant decreases in annual rainfall mainly in the latter half of the middle reaches, two-thirds of which occurred in high and heavy rainfall. Most stations in the middle and lower reaches showed significant decreases in rainy days. Daily rainfall intensity had a significant increase at 13 stations, where rainy days were generally decreasing. The combined effect of these opposing changes explains the prevailing absence of change in annual rainfall, and the observed decreases in annual rainfall can be attributed to the decreasing number of rainy days. The changes in rainy days and rainfall intensity were dominated by the wet season and dry season, respectively.

Analysis of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the Eastern Pyrenees

Science.gov (United States)

Portilla Gamboa, M.; Hürlimann, M.; Corominas, J.

2009-09-01

The inventory of rainfall-induced mass movements, rainfall data, and slope characteristics are considered the basis of the analysis determining appropriate rainfall thresholds for mass movements in a specific region. The rainfall-induced landslide thresholds established in the literature for the Catalan Pyrenees have been formulated referring to the rainfall events of November 1982, September 1992, December 1997, and others occurred after 1999. It has been shown that a rainfall intensity greater than 190 mm in 24 hours without antecedent rainfall would be necessary to produce mass movements (Corominas and Moya, 1999; Corominas et al, 2002) or 51mm in 24h with 61 mm of accumulated rainfall (Marco, 2007). Short duration-high intensity rainfalls have brought about several mass movements in some Catalonian regions throughout the course of twenty-first century (Berga, Bonaigua, Saldes, Montserrat, Port-Ainé, Riu Runer, and Sant Nicolau). Preliminary analysis of these events shows that it is necessary to review the thresholds defined so far and redo the existing inventory of mass movements for the Catalan Pyrenees. The present work shows the usefulness of aerial photographs in the reconstruction of the inventory of historic mass movements (Molló-Queralbs, 1940; Arties-Vielha, 1963; Barruera-Senet, 1940 and 1963, and Berga-Cercs, 1982, 1997 and 2008). Also, it highlights the treatment given to scarce and scattered rainfall data available inside these Catalonia’s regions, and the application of Geographic Information Systems (ArcGIS) in the management of the gathered information. The results acquired until now show that the historic rainfall events occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees have yielded many more mass movements than those reported in the literature. Besides, it can be said that the thresholds formulated for the Pyrenees are valid for longstanding regional rainfalls, and not for local downpours. In the latter cases it should be necessary to take into account the

Comparison and Evolution of Extreme Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Taiwan

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Chunhung WU

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This study analyzed the characteristics of, and locations prone to, extreme rainfall-induced landslides in three watersheds in Taiwan, as well as the long-term evolution of landslides in the Laonong River watershed (LRW, based on multiannual landslide inventories during 2003–2014. Extreme rainfall-induced landslides were centralized beside sinuous or meandering reaches, especially those with large sediment deposition. Landslide-prone strata during extreme rainfall events were sandstone and siltstone. Large-scale landslides were likely to occur when the maximum 6-h accumulated rainfall exceeded 420 mm. All of the large-scale landslides induced by short-duration and high-intensity rainfall developed from historical small-scale landslides beside the sinuous or meandering reaches or in the source area of rivers. However, most of the large-scale landslides induced by long-duration and high-intensity rainfall were new but were still located beside sinuous or meandering reaches or near the source. The frequency density of landslides under long-duration and high-intensity rainfall was larger by one order than those under short-duration rainfall, and the β values in the landslide frequency density-area analysis ranged from 1.22 to 1.348. The number of downslope landslides was three times larger than those of midslope and upslope landslides. The extreme rainfall-induced landslides occurred in the erosion gullies upstream of the watersheds, whereas those beside rivers were downstream. Analysis of the long-term evolution of landslides in the LRW showed that the geological setting, sinuousness of reaches, and sediment yield volume determined their location and evolution. Small-scale landslides constituted 71.9–96.2% of the total cases from 2003 to 2014, and were more easily induced after Typhoon Morakot (2009. The frequency density of landslides after Morakot was greater by one order than before, with 61% to 68% of total landslides located in the

Rainfall variation and child health: effect of rainfall on diarrhea among under 5 children in Rwanda, 2010

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Assumpta Mukabutera

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Diarrhea among children under 5 years of age has long been a major public health concern. Previous studies have suggested an association between rainfall and diarrhea. Here, we examined the association between Rwandan rainfall patterns and childhood diarrhea and the impact of household sanitation variables on this relationship. Methods We derived a series of rain-related variables in Rwanda based on daily rainfall measurements and hydrological models built from daily precipitation measurements collected between 2009 and 2011. Using these data and the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey database, we measured the association between total monthly rainfall, monthly rainfall intensity, runoff water and anomalous rainfall and the occurrence of diarrhea in children under 5 years of age. Results Among the 8601 children under 5 years of age included in the survey, 13.2 % reported having diarrhea within the 2 weeks prior to the survey. We found that higher levels of runoff were protective against diarrhea compared to low levels among children who lived in households with unimproved toilet facilities (OR = 0.54, 95 % CI: [0.34, 0.87] for moderate runoff and OR = 0.50, 95 % CI: [0.29, 0.86] for high runoff but had no impact among children in household with improved toilets. Conclusion Our finding that children in households with unimproved toilets were less likely to report diarrhea during periods of high runoff highlights the vulnerabilities of those living without adequate sanitation to the negative health impacts of environmental events.

Assessing the Regional Frequency, Intensity, and Spatial Extent of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Bosma, C.; Wright, D.; Nguyen, P.

2017-12-01

While the strength of a hurricane is generally classified based on its wind speed, the unprecedented rainfall-driven flooding experienced in southeastern Texas during Hurricane Harvey clearly highlights the need for better understanding of the hazards associated with extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. In this study, we seek to develop a framework for describing the joint probabilistic and spatio-temporal properties of extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. Furthermore, we argue that commonly-used terminology - such as the "500-year storm" - fail to convey the true properties of tropical cyclone rainfall occurrences in the United States. To quantify the magnitude and spatial extent of these storms, a database consisting of hundreds of unique rainfall volumetric shapes (or "voxels") was created. Each voxel is a four-dimensional object, created by connecting, in both space and time, gridded rainfall observations from the daily, gauge-based NOAA CPC-Unified precipitation dataset. Individual voxels were then associated with concurrent tropical cyclone tracks from NOAA's HURDAT-2 archive, to create distinct representations of the rainfall associated with every Atlantic tropical system making landfall over (or passing near) the United States since 1948. Using these voxels, a series of threshold-excess extreme value models were created to estimate the recurrence intervals of extreme tropical cyclone rainfall, both nationally and locally, for single and multi-day timescales. This voxel database also allows for the "indexing" of past events, placing recent extremes - such as the 50+ inches of rain observed during Hurricane Harvey - into a national context and emphasizing how rainfall totals that are rare at the point scale may be more frequent from a regional perspective.

Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Variables: Assessing Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Langousis, Andreas; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Kaleris, Vassilios

2014-05-01

Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, and the modeling parameterizations used, precipitation is one of the least well reproduced hydrologic variables by both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). This is especially the case at a regional level (where hydrologic risks are assessed) and at small temporal scales (e.g. daily) used to run hydrologic models. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings and assess the effect of climate change on rainfall statistics at hydrologically relevant scales, Langousis and Kaleris (2013) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables. The developed downscaling scheme was tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece, and was proved capable of reproducing several statistical properties of actual rainfall records, at both annual and seasonal levels. This was done solely by conditioning rainfall simulation on a vector of atmospheric predictors, properly selected to reflect the relative influence of upper-air variables on ground-level rainfall statistics. In this study, we apply the developed framework for conditional rainfall simulation using atmospheric data from different GCM/RCM combinations. This is done using atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com), and daily rainfall measurements for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy; i.e. the Flumendosa catchment. Since GCM/RCM products are suited to reproduce the local climatology in a statistical sense (i.e. in terms of relative frequencies), rather than ensuring a one-to-one temporal correspondence between observed and simulated fields (i.e. as is the case for ERA-interim reanalysis data), we proceed in three steps: a) we use statistical tools to establish a linkage between ERA-Interim upper-air atmospheric forecasts and

Estimating Vegetation Rainfall Interception Using Remote Sensing Observations at Very High Resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Y.; Zhao, P.; Hong, Y.; Fan, W.; Yan, B.; Xie, H.

2017-12-01

Abstract: As an important compont of evapotranspiration, vegetation rainfall interception is the proportion of gross rainfall that is intercepted, stored and subsequently evaporated from all parts of vegetation during or following rainfall. Accurately quantifying the vegetation rainfall interception at a high resolution is critical for rainfall-runoff modeling and flood forecasting, and is also essential for understanding its further impact on local, regional, and even global water cycle dynamics. In this study, the Remote Sensing-based Gash model (RS-Gash model) is developed based on a modified Gash model for interception loss estimation using remote sensing observations at the regional scale, and has been applied and validated in the upper reach of the Heihe River Basin of China for different types of vegetation. To eliminate the scale error and the effect of mixed pixels, the RS-Gash model is applied at a fine scale of 30 m with the high resolution vegetation area index retrieved by using the unified model of bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF-U) for the vegetation canopy. Field validation shows that the RMSE and R2 of the interception ratio are 3.7% and 0.9, respectively, indicating the model's strong stability and reliability at fine scale. The temporal variation of vegetation rainfall interception loss and its relationship with precipitation are further investigated. In summary, the RS-Gash model has demonstrated its effectiveness and reliability in estimating vegetation rainfall interception. When compared to the coarse resolution results, the application of this model at 30-m fine resolution is necessary to resolve the scaling issues as shown in this study. Keywords: rainfall interception; remote sensing; RS-Gash analytical model; high resolution

Enhanced Orographic Tropical Rainfall: An Study of the Colombia's rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Peñaranda, V. M.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Mesa, O. J.

2015-12-01

Convection in tropical regions may be enhanced by orographic barriers. The orographic enhancement is an intensification of rain rates caused by the forced lifting of air over a mountainous structure. Orographic heavy rainfall events, occasionally, comes along by flooding, debris flow and substantial amount of looses, either economics or human lives. Most of the heavy convective rainfall events, occurred in Colombia, have left a lot of victims and material damages by flash flooding. An urgent action is required by either scientific communities or society, helping to find preventive solutions against these kind of events. Various scientific literature reports address the feedback process between the convection and the local orographic structures. The orographic enhancement could arise by several physical mechanism: precipitation transport on leeward side, convection triggered by the forcing of air over topography, the seeder-feeder mechanism, among others. The identification of the physical mechanisms for orographic enhancement of rainfall has not been studied over Colombia. As far as we know, orographic convective tropical rainfall is just the main factor for the altitudinal belt of maximum precipitation, but the lack of detailed hydro-meteorological measurements have precluded a complete understanding of the tropical rainfall in Colombia and its complex terrain. The emergence of the multifractal theory for rainfall has opened a field of research which builds a framework for parsimonious modeling of physical process. Studies about the scaling behavior of orographic rainfall have found some modulating functions between the rainfall intensity probability distribution and the terrain elevation. The overall objective is to advance in the understanding of the orographic influence over the Colombian tropical rainfall based on observations and scaling-analysis techniques. We use rainfall maps, weather radars scans and ground-based rainfall data. The research strategy is

Seasonal variation and climate change impact in Rainfall Erosivity across Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine; Ballabio, Cristiano

2017-04-01

Rainfall erosivity quantifies the climatic effect on water erosion and is of high importance for soil scientists, land use planners, agronomists, hydrologists and environmental scientists in general. The rainfall erosivity combines the influence of rainfall duration, magnitude, frequency and intensity. Rainfall erosivity is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years). The European Commission's Joint Research Centr(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,675 stations. The interpolation of those point erosivity values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511: 801-815). In 2016, REDES extended with a monthly component, which allowed developing monthly and seasonal erosivity maps and assessing rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally for European Union and Switzerland. The monthly erosivity maps have been used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315). Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year. Finally, the identification of the most erosive month allows recommending certain agricultural management practices (crop

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in the Tocantins-Araguaia hydrographic region

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Glauber Epifanio Loureiro

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Current paper examines the space-time dynamics of yearly rainfall of the Tocantins-Araguaia Hydrographic Region (TAHR, foregrounded on rainfall volume from isohyet maps and interpolated by Kriging geo-statistical method.  Rainfall space dynamics was undertaken by the analysis of descriptive statistics, Index of Meteorological Irregularity (IMI and Variation Coefficient. Temporal dynamics was analyzed through the distribution of total annual volume precipitation for each TAHR sub-basin by the Standardized Anomaly Index, trend and magnitude test provided by Mann-Kendall and Sen Tests. Results correlated with meteorological anomalies of the Atlantic (Dipole and Pacific (ENOS Oceans show a highly heterogeneous rainfall behavior with temporal variability. Or rather, a decrease of rainfall extensiveness during years of intense meteorological anomaly with a rainfall increase south of the High Tocantins and Araguaia sub-basins and a decrease of rainfall in the Lower Tocantins sub-basin, with El Niño features. Although the Mann-Kendall test does not show statistically a significant trend for rainfall in the TAHR region, Sen’s estimator reveals a decrease in rainfall in the High Tocantins (-1.24 km³ year-1 and Araguaia (-1.13 km³ year-1 sub-basins and a rainfall increase in the Lower Tocantins sub-basin (0.53 km³ year-1 and in the TAHR region (-1.5 km³ year-1.

Rainfall erosivity in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Klik, Andreas; Rousseva, Svetla; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Michaelides, Silas; Hrabalíková, Michaela; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Beguería, Santiago; Alewell, Christine

2015-04-01

Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based on the best available datasets. Data have been collected from 1541 precipitation stations in all European Union (EU) Member States and Switzerland, with temporal resolutions of 5 to 60 min. The R-factor values calculated from precipitation data of different temporal resolutions were normalised to R-factor values with temporal resolutions of 30 min using linear regression functions. Precipitation time series ranged from a minimum of 5 years to a maximum of 40 years. The average time series per precipitation station is around 17.1 years, the most datasets including the first decade of the 21st century. Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months, average temperature), elevation and latitude/longitude. The mean R-factor for the EU plus Switzerland is 722 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1), with the highest values (>1000 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Mediterranean and alpine regions and the lowest (<500 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Nordic countries. The erosivity density (erosivity normalised to annual precipitation amounts) was also the highest in Mediterranean regions which implies high risk for erosive events and floods

Causes and Model Skill of the Persistent Intense Rainfall and Flooding in Paraguay during the Austral Summer 2015-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Doss-Gollin, J.; Munoz, A. G.; Pastén, M.

2017-12-01

During the austral summer 2015-16 severe flooding displaced over 150,000 people on the Paraguay River system in Paraguay, Argentina, and Southern Brazil. This flooding was out of phase with the typical seasonal cycle of the Paraguay River, and was driven by repeated intense rainfall events in the Lower Paraguay River basin. Using a weather typing approach within a diagnostic framework, we show that enhanced moisture inflow from the low-level jet and local convergence associated with baroclinic systems favored the development of mesoscale convective activity and enhanced precipitation. The observed circulation patterns were made more likely by the cross-timescale interactions of multiple climate mechanisms including the strong, mature El Niño event and an active Madden-Julien Oscillation in phases four and five. We also perform a comparison of the rainfall predictability using seasonal forecasts from the Latin American Observatory of Climate Events (OLE2) and sub-seasonal forecasts produced by the ECMWF. We find that the model output precipitation field exhibited limited skill at lead times beyond the synoptic timescale, but that a Model Output Statistics (MOS) approach, in which the leading principal components of the observed rainfall field are regressed on the leading principal components of model-simulated rainfall fields, substantially improves spatial representation of rainfall forecasts. Possible implications for flood preparedness are briefly discussed.

Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Høegh Ravn, Nanna; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2015-01-01

The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme...

Rainfall and runoff Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Washington State considering the change and uncertainty of observed and anticipated extreme rainfall and snow events

Science.gov (United States)

Demissie, Y. K.; Mortuza, M. R.; Li, H. Y.

2015-12-01

The observed and anticipated increasing trends in extreme storm magnitude and frequency, as well as the associated flooding risk in the Pacific Northwest highlighted the need for revising and updating the local intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, which are commonly used for designing critical water infrastructure. In Washington State, much of the drainage system installed in the last several decades uses IDF curves that are outdated by as much as half a century, making the system inadequate and vulnerable for flooding as seen more frequently in recent years. In this study, we have developed new and forward looking rainfall and runoff IDF curves for each county in Washington State using recently observed and projected precipitation data. Regional frequency analysis coupled with Bayesian uncertainty quantification and model averaging methods were used to developed and update the rainfall IDF curves, which were then used in watershed and snow models to develop the runoff IDF curves that explicitly account for effects of snow and drainage characteristic into the IDF curves and related designs. The resulted rainfall and runoff IDF curves provide more reliable, forward looking, and spatially resolved characteristics of storm events that can assist local decision makers and engineers to thoroughly review and/or update the current design standards for urban and rural storm water management infrastructure in order to reduce the potential ramifications of increasing severe storms and resulting floods on existing and planned storm drainage and flood management systems in the state.

Evaluate Hydrologic Response on Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Rainfall Using High Resolution Radar Rainfall Data and WRF-Hydro Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, S.; Fang, N. Z.

2017-12-01

A previously developed Dynamic Moving Storm (DMS) generator is a multivariate rainfall model simulating the complex nature of precipitation field: spatial variability, temporal variability, and storm movement. Previous effort by the authors has investigated the sensitivity of DMS parameters on corresponding hydrologic responses by using synthetic storms. In this study, the DMS generator has been upgraded to generate more realistic precipitation field. The dependence of hydrologic responses on rainfall features was investigated by dissecting the precipitation field into rain cells and modifying their spatio-temporal specification individually. To retrieve DMS parameters from radar rainfall data, rain cell segmentation and tracking algorithms were respectively developed and applied on high resolution radar rainfall data (1) to spatially determine the rain cells within individual radar image and (2) to temporally analyze their dynamic behavior. Statistics of DMS parameters were established by processing a long record of rainfall data (10 years) to keep the modification on real storms within the limit of regional climatology. Empirical distributions of the DMS parameters were calculated to reveal any preferential pattern and seasonality. Subsequently, the WRF-Hydro model forced by the remodeled and modified precipitation was used for hydrologic simulation. The study area was the Upper Trinity River Basin (UTRB) watershed, Texas; and two kinds of high resolution radar data i.e. the Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) level III Digital Hybrid Reflectivity (DHR) product and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) precipitation rate product, were utilized to establish parameter statistics and to recreate/remodel historical events respectively. The results demonstrated that rainfall duration is a significant linkage between DMS parameters and their hydrologic impacts—any combination of spatiotemporal characteristics that keep rain cells longer over the catchment will produce higher

Effects of Rainfall Characteristics on the Stability of Tropical Residual Soil Slope

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Rahardjo Harianto

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Global climate change has a significant impact on rainfall characteristics, sea water level and groundwater table. Changes in rainfall characteristics may affect stability of slopes and have severe impacts on sustainable urban living. Information on the intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall is often required by geotechnical engineers for performing slope stability analyses. Many seepage analyses are commonly performed using the most extreme rainfall possible which is uneconomical in designing a slope repair or slope failure preventive measure. In this study, the historical rainfall data were analyzed and investigated to understand the characteristics of rainfall in Singapore. The frequency distribution method was used to estimate future rainfall characteristics in Singapore. New intensity-duration-frequency (IDF curves for rainfall in Singapore were developed for six different durations (10, 20, 30 min and 1, 2 and 24 h and six frequencies (2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. The new IDF curves were used in the seepage and slope stability analyses to determine the variation of factor of safety of residual soil slopes under different rainfall intensities in Singapore.

Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

Science.gov (United States)

Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

2018-05-01

The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

Science.gov (United States)

Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

2013-01-01

Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

Multivariate Analysis of Erosivity Indices and Rainfall Physical Characteristics Associated with Rainfall Patterns in Rio de Janeiro

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Roriz Luciano Machado

2017-12-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The identification of areas with greater erosive potential is important for planning soil and water conservation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the physical characteristics of rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and their interactions with rainfall patterns through multivariate statistical analysis. Rainfall depth, kinetic energy, 30-min intensity (I30, duration of rainfall events, and the erosivity indices KE >10, KE >25, and EI30 in 36 locations (stations were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA and canonical discriminant analysis (CDA. Based on evaluation of the respective historical series of hyetographs, it was found that the advanced pattern occurs with highest frequency (51.8 %, followed by the delayed pattern (26.1 %, and by the intermediate pattern (22.1 %. All the evaluated rainfall characteristics have high response capacity in describing localities and rainfall patterns through PCA and CDA. In CDA, the Tukey test (p<0.05 applied to the scores of the first canonical discriminant function (CDF1 allowed differentiation of the stations with respect to the rainfall and erosivity characteristics for the advanced and delayed patterns. In the delayed pattern, the localities of Angra dos Reis, Campos, Eletrobrás, Manuel Duarte, Santa Isabel do Rio Preto, Tanguá, Teresópolis, Vila Mambucaba, and Xerém had the highest CDF1 scores, indicating that they have rainfalls with higher depth, I30, and duration because the standardized canonical coefficient (SCC and the correlation coefficient (“r” of these characteristics were positive. The rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro differ from one locality to another in relation to the advanced and delayed rainfall patterns, mainly due to the physical characteristics of rainfall depth, I30, and duration, indicating a higher risk of soil loss and runoff in the localities where rainfall events with the delayed pattern prevail.

Near-Surface Geophysical Mapping of the Hydrological Response to an Intense Rainfall Event at the Field Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez, G.; Vanderlinden, K.; Giraldez, J. V.; Espejo, A. J.; Muriel, J. L.

2009-12-01

Soil moisture plays an important role in a wide variety of biogeochemical fluxes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system and governs the (eco)hydrological response of a catchment to an external forcing such as rainfall. Near-surface electromagnetic induction (EMI) sensors that measure the soil apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) provide a fast and non-invasive means for characterizing this response at the field or catchment scale through high-resolution time-lapse mapping. Here we show how ECa maps, obtained before and after an intense rainfall event of 125 mm h-1, elucidate differences in soil moisture patterns and hydrologic response of an experimental field as a consequence of differed soil management. The dryland field (Vertisol) was located in SW Spain and cropped with a typical wheat-sunflower-legume rotation. Both, near-surface and subsurface ECa (ECas and ECad, respectively), were measured using the EM38-DD EMI sensor in a mobile configuration. Raw ECa measurements and Mean Relative Differences (MRD) provided information on soil moisture patterns while time-lapse maps were used to evaluate the hydrologic response of the field. ECa maps of the field, measured before and after the rainfall event showed similar patterns. The field depressions where most of water and sediments accumulated had the highest ECa and MRD values. The SE-oriented soil, which was deeper and more exposed to sun and wind, showed the lowest ECa and MRD. The largest differences raised in the central part of the field where a high ECa and MRD area appeared after the rainfall event as a consequence of the smaller soil depth and a possible subsurface flux concentration. Time-lapse maps of both ECa and MRD were also similar. The direct drill plots showed higher increments of ECa and MRD as a result of the smaller runoff production. Time-lapse ECa increments showed a bimodal distribution differentiating clearly the direct drill from the conventional and minimum tillage plots. However this kind

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF EXTREME RAINFALL ON THE SLOPE AREA OF MT. MERAPI

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Dhian Dharma Prayuda

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Rainfall has temporal and spatial characteristics with certain pattern which are affected by topographic variations and climatology of an area. The intensity of extreme rainfall is one of important characteristics related to the trigger factors for debris flow. This research will discuss the result of analysis on short duration rainfall data in the south and west slope of Mt. Merapi. Measured hourly rainfall data in 14 rainfall stations for the last 27 years were used as analysis input. The rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationship (IDF was derived using empirical formula of Sherman, Kimijima, Haspers, and Mononobe method. The analysis on the characteristics of extreme rainfall intensity was performed by conducting spatial interpolation using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW method. Result of analysis shows that IDF of rainfall in the research area fits to Sherman’s formula. Besides, the spatial distribution pattern of maximum rainfall intensity was assessed on the basis of area rainfall. Furthermore, the difference on the result of spatial map for one hour extreme rainfall based on isolated event and non-isolated event method can be evaluated. The result of this preliminary research is expected to be inputs in the establishment of debris flow early warning in Mt. Merapi slope area.

Dynamics of intense rainfalls in the southern half of European Russia for the period 1960-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Chizhikova, N.

2018-01-01

Two time periods (1960-1986 and 1986-2015) were compared in terms of mean annual frequency and mean annual sum of warm season rainfalls to quantify general trends in the changing regime of heavy precipitation over the southern part of European Russia, which is the area of the most intensive agricultural activity. The identified trends were compared with the published assessment of the intensity trends of soil erosion processes. The prevalence of the increasing tendency in the frequency and amount of precipitation is demonstrated, which undergoes against a decrease in the rate of eroded sediment accumulation and against a decrease of linear growth rate of gullies. This result rather proves the crucial contribution of the snowmelt to the soil erosion over the studied area.

Feasibility of High-Resolution Soil Erosion Measurements by Means of Rainfall Simulations and SfM Photogrammetry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Phoebe Hänsel

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The silty soils of the intensively used agricultural landscape of the Saxon loess province, eastern Germany, are very prone to soil erosion, mainly caused by water erosion. Rainfall simulations, and also increasingly structure-from-motion (SfM photogrammetry, are used as methods in soil erosion research not only to assess soil erosion by water, but also to quantify soil loss. This study aims to validate SfM photogrammetry determined soil loss estimations with rainfall simulations measurements. Rainfall simulations were performed at three agricultural sites in central Saxony. Besides the measured data runoff and soil loss by sampling (in mm, terrestrial images were taken from the plots with digital cameras before and after the rainfall simulation. Subsequently, SfM photogrammetry was used to reconstruct soil surface changes due to soil erosion in terms of high resolution digital elevation models (DEMs for the pre- and post-event (resolution 1 × 1 mm. By multi-temporal change detection, the digital elevation model of difference (DoD and an averaged soil loss (in mm is received, which was compared to the soil loss by sampling. Soil loss by DoD was higher than soil loss by sampling. The method of SfM photogrammetry-determined soil loss estimations also include a comparison of three different ground control point (GCP approaches, revealing that the most complex one delivers the most reliable soil loss by DoD. Additionally, soil bulk density changes and splash erosion beyond the plot were measured during the rainfall simulation experiments in order to separate these processes and associated surface changes from the soil loss by DoD. Furthermore, splash was negligibly small, whereas higher soil densities after the rainfall simulations indicated soil compaction. By means of calculated soil surface changes due to soil compaction, the soil loss by DoD achieved approximately the same value as the soil loss by rainfall simulation.

Deforestation and rainfall recycling in Brazil: Is decreased forest cover connectivity associated with decreased rainfall connectivity?

Science.gov (United States)

Adera, S.; Larsen, L.; Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.

2017-12-01

In the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone, deforestation has the potential to significantly affect rainfall by disrupting rainfall recycling, the process by which regional evapotranspiration contributes to regional rainfall. Understanding rainfall recycling in this region is important not only for sustaining Amazon and Cerrado ecosystems, but also for cattle ranching, agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water management. Simulations in previous studies suggest complex, scale-dependent interactions between forest cover connectivity and rainfall. For example, the size and distribution of deforested patches has been found to affect rainfall quantity and spatial distribution. Here we take an empirical approach, using the spatial connectivity of rainfall as an indicator of rainfall recycling, to ask: as forest cover connectivity decreased from 1981 - 2015, how did the spatial connectivity of rainfall change in the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone? We use satellite forest cover and rainfall data covering this period of intensive forest cover loss in the region (forest cover from the Hansen Global Forest Change dataset; rainfall from the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset). Rainfall spatial connectivity is quantified using transfer entropy, a metric from information theory, and summarized using network statistics. Networks of connectivity are quantified for paired deforested and non-deforested regions before deforestation (1981-1995) and during/after deforestation (2001-2015). Analyses reveal a decline in spatial connectivity networks of rainfall following deforestation.

ANALYSIS OF EFFECTIVE RAINFALL INTENSITY AND WORKING RAINFALL FOR BASIC WARNING CRITERIA DEVELOPMENT ON LAHAR FLOW EVENT

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Fitriyadi Fitriyadi

2015-05-01

The research results showed that the number of reviewed serial rain with total value ≥ 80 mm is 9.28% of the whole serial rain, and 12.5% of them caused lahar flow in Gendol River. Debris flow occurrence probability on total rainfall amount of ≥ 80 mm that may occur on Gendol River amounted to 1.89%. This value represents less possibility of debris flow in Gendol River, this is due to the rain conditions in the Gendol Watershed different from the situation in Japan as well as the limitations of the available data. It is recommended for further research on the limitation of total rainfall in accordance with the conditions in Gendol Watershed by considering other parameters becoming the lahar flow controller factor. Further, it is necessary to perform the analysis using rain catchment method by averaging rainfall values on each of serial rain.

Probabilistic Analysis of Cut-Slope Stability for Tropical Red Clay of Depok, West Java as an Effect of Rainfall Duration and Intensity

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Hakim Sagitaningrum Fathiyah

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Landslide in Indonesia, specifically in Java island, occurs during rainy seasons. In Java island, it is known that the tropical red clay has the ability to stand at steep angles, while in stability analysis due to rainfall, practitioners only consider the rise of groundwater table. Previous studies states that one of the factor affecting factor of safety (FS for tropical red clay slopes is the formation of saturated zones due to matric suction. This research studies the effect of rainfall intensity and duration to FS of cut-slopes as parametric study with probabilistic analysis for different height of 10m, 20m, and 30m also slope angles of 27°, 45°, 55°, and 70°. Rainfall parameter are taken from FTUI rainfall station for advanced pattern and three-days duration of rain. Analysis of seepage uses SEEP/W and slope stability uses SLOPE/W. It is known that the significant increase of probability of failure due to the three-days rainfall is achieved at the 10m height and 70°-angled slope. Increase of the probability of failure is mainly due to rainfall infiltration which saturates the surface and pore water pressure increase until certain time where infiltration stops and turn into surface run-off.

Soil erosion under multiple time-varying rainfall events

Science.gov (United States)

Heng, B. C. Peter; Barry, D. Andrew; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Sander, Graham C.

2010-05-01

Soil erosion is a function of many factors and process interactions. An erosion event produces changes in surface soil properties such as texture and hydraulic conductivity. These changes in turn alter the erosion response to subsequent events. Laboratory-scale soil erosion studies have typically focused on single independent rainfall events with constant rainfall intensities. This study investigates the effect of multiple time-varying rainfall events on soil erosion using the EPFL erosion flume. The rainfall simulator comprises ten Veejet nozzles mounted on oscillating bars 3 m above a 6 m × 2 m flume. Spray from the nozzles is applied onto the soil surface in sweeps; rainfall intensity is thus controlled by varying the sweeping frequency. Freshly-prepared soil with a uniform slope was subjected to five rainfall events at daily intervals. In each 3-h event, rainfall intensity was ramped up linearly to a maximum of 60 mm/h and then stepped down to zero. Runoff samples were collected and analysed for particle size distribution (PSD) as well as total sediment concentration. We investigate whether there is a hysteretic relationship between sediment concentration and discharge within each event and how this relationship changes from event to event. Trends in the PSD of the eroded sediment are discussed and correlated with changes in sediment concentration. Close-up imagery of the soil surface following each event highlight changes in surface soil structure with time. This study enhances our understanding of erosion processes in the field, with corresponding implications for soil erosion modelling.

Observed magnified runoff response to rainfall intensification under global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Jr-Chuan; Lee, Tsung-Yu; Lee, Jun-Yi

2014-01-01

Runoff response to rainfall intensification under global warming is crucial, but is poorly discussed due to the limited data length and human alteration. Historical rainfall and runoff records in pristine catchments in Taiwan were investigated through trend analysis and cross temperature difference analysis. Trend analysis showed that both rainfall and runoff in the 99.9-percentile have been significantly increasing in terms of frequency and intensity over the past four decades. Cross temperature difference analysis quantified that the rainfall and runoff extremes (including the 99.0–99.9-percentiles) may increase by 69.5% and 99.8%, respectively, under a future scenario of 1  ° C increase in temperature. This increase in intensity resembles the increase in intensity observed between 1971–1990 and 1991–2010. The amplified runoff response can be related to the limited catchment storage capacity being preoccupied by rainfall extremes. The quantified temperature effect on rainfall and runoff intensification can be a strong basis for designing scenarios, confirming and fusing GCMs’ results. In addition, the runoff amplification should be a warning for other regions with significant rainfall intensification. Appropriate strategies are indispensable and urgently needed to maintain and protect the development of societies. (paper)

Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a Fully Distributed Model and High-resolution rainfall data

Science.gov (United States)

Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire

2017-04-01

Nowadays, there is a growing interest on small-scale rainfall information, provided by weather radars, to be used in urban water management and decision-making. Therefore, an increasing interest is in parallel devoted to the development of fully distributed and grid-based models following the increase of computation capabilities, the availability of high-resolution GIS information needed for such models implementation. However, the choice of an appropriate implementation scale to integrate the catchment heterogeneity and the whole measured rainfall variability provided by High-resolution radar technologies still issues. This work proposes a two steps investigation of scale effects in urban hydrology and its effects on modeling works. In the first step fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependency observed within distributed data used to describe the catchment heterogeneity, both the structure of the sewer network and the distribution of impervious areas are analyzed. Then an intensive multi-scale modeling work is carried out to understand scaling effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations were conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model was implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 m to 5 m and modeling investigations were performed using both rain gauge rainfall information as well as high resolution X band radar data in order to assess the sensitivity of the model to small scale rainfall variability. Results coming out from this work demonstrate scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modeling. In fact, fractal concept highlights the scale dependency observed within distributed data used to implement hydrological models. Patterns of geophysical data change when we change the observation pixel size. The multi-scale modeling investigation performed with Multi-Hydro model at 17 spatial resolutions confirms scaling effect on hydrological model

Soil organic carbon loss and selective transportation under field simulated rainfall events.

Science.gov (United States)

Nie, Xiaodong; Li, Zhongwu; Huang, Jinquan; Huang, Bin; Zhang, Yan; Ma, Wenming; Hu, Yanbiao; Zeng, Guangming

2014-01-01

The study on the lateral movement of soil organic carbon (SOC) during soil erosion can improve the understanding of global carbon budget. Simulated rainfall experiments on small field plots were conducted to investigate the SOC lateral movement under different rainfall intensities and tillage practices. Two rainfall intensities (High intensity (HI) and Low intensity (LI)) and two tillage practices (No tillage (NT) and Conventional tillage (CT)) were maintained on three plots (2 m width × 5 m length): HI-NT, LI-NT and LI-CT. The rainfall lasted 60 minutes after the runoff generated, the sediment yield and runoff volume were measured and sampled at 6-min intervals. SOC concentration of sediment and runoff as well as the sediment particle size distribution were measured. The results showed that most of the eroded organic carbon (OC) was lost in form of sediment-bound organic carbon in all events. The amount of lost SOC in LI-NT event was 12.76 times greater than that in LI-CT event, whereas this measure in HI-NT event was 3.25 times greater than that in LI-NT event. These results suggest that conventional tillage as well as lower rainfall intensity can reduce the amount of lost SOC during short-term soil erosion. Meanwhile, the eroded sediment in all events was enriched in OC, and higher enrichment ratio of OC (ERoc) in sediment was observed in LI events than that in HI event, whereas similar ERoc curves were found in LI-CT and LI-NT events. Furthermore, significant correlations between ERoc and different size sediment particles were only observed in HI-NT event. This indicates that the enrichment of OC is dependent on the erosion process, and the specific enrichment mechanisms with respect to different erosion processes should be studied in future.

Multifractal rainfall extremes: Theoretical analysis and practical estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Langousis, Andreas; Veneziano, Daniele; Furcolo, Pierluigi; Lepore, Chiara

2009-01-01

We study the extremes generated by a multifractal model of temporal rainfall and propose a practical method to estimate the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The model assumes that rainfall is a sequence of independent and identically distributed multiplicative cascades of the beta-lognormal type, with common duration D. When properly fitted to data, this simple model was found to produce accurate IDF results [Langousis A, Veneziano D. Intensity-duration-frequency curves from scaling representations of rainfall. Water Resour Res 2007;43. (doi:10.1029/2006WR005245)]. Previous studies also showed that the IDF values from multifractal representations of rainfall scale with duration d and return period T under either d → 0 or T → ∞, with different scaling exponents in the two cases. We determine the regions of the (d, T)-plane in which each asymptotic scaling behavior applies in good approximation, find expressions for the IDF values in the scaling and non-scaling regimes, and quantify the bias when estimating the asymptotic power-law tail of rainfall intensity from finite-duration records, as was often done in the past. Numerically calculated exact IDF curves are compared to several analytic approximations. The approximations are found to be accurate and are used to propose a practical IDF estimation procedure.

Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for postfire debris-flow emergency-response planning

Science.gov (United States)

Cannon, S.H.; Boldt, E.M.; Laber, J.L.; Kean, J.W.; Staley, D.M.

2011-01-01

Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies can be faced with evacuation and resource-deployment decisions well in advance of coming winter storms and during storms themselves. Information critical to these decisions is provided for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storms from recently burned areas in southern California steeplands is used to develop a system for classifying magnitudes of hydrologic response. The four-class system describes combinations of reported volumes of individual debris flows, consequences of debris flows and floods in an urban setting, and spatial extents of the hydrologic response. The range of rainfall conditions associated with different magnitude classes is defined by integrating local rainfall data with the response magnitude information. Magnitude I events can be expected when within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) of given durations (D) fall above the threshold A = 0.4D0.5 and below A = 0.5D0.6 for durations greater than 1 h. Magnitude II events will be generated in response to rainfall accumulations and durations between A = 0.4D0.5 and A = 0.9D0.5 for durations less than 1 h, and between A = 0.5D0.6 and A = 0.9D0.5 or durations greater than 1 h. Magnitude III events can be expected in response to rainfall conditions above the threshold A = 0.9D0.5. Rainfall threshold-magnitude relations are linked with potential emergency-response actions as an emergency-response decision chart, which leads a user through steps to determine potential event magnitudes and identify possible evacuation and resource-deployment levels. Use of this information in planning and response decision-making process could result in increased safety for both the public and emergency responders. ?? 2011 US Government.

Developing empirical relationship between interrill erosion, rainfall ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In order to develop an empirical relationship for interrill erosion based on rainfall intensity, slope steepness and soil types, an interrill erosion experiment was conducted using laboratory rainfall simulator on three soil types (Vertisols, Cambisols and Leptosols) for the highlands of North Shewa Zone of Oromia Region.

Dynamic Hydrological Modeling in Drylands with TRMM Based Rainfall

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Elena Tarnavsky

2013-12-01

Full Text Available This paper introduces and evaluates DryMOD, a dynamic water balance model of the key hydrological process in drylands that is based on free, public-domain datasets. The rainfall model of DryMOD makes optimal use of spatially disaggregated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM datasets to simulate hourly rainfall intensities at a spatial resolution of 1-km. Regional-scale applications of the model in seasonal catchments in Tunisia and Senegal characterize runoff and soil moisture distribution and dynamics in response to varying rainfall data inputs and soil properties. The results highlight the need for hourly-based rainfall simulation and for correcting TRMM 3B42 rainfall intensities for the fractional cover of rainfall (FCR. Without FCR correction and disaggregation to 1 km, TRMM 3B42 based rainfall intensities are too low to generate surface runoff and to induce substantial changes to soil moisture storage. The outcomes from the sensitivity analysis show that topsoil porosity is the most important soil property for simulation of runoff and soil moisture. Thus, we demonstrate the benefit of hydrological investigations at a scale, for which reliable information on soil profile characteristics exists and which is sufficiently fine to account for the heterogeneities of these. Where such information is available, application of DryMOD can assist in the spatial and temporal planning of water harvesting according to runoff-generating areas and the runoff ratio, as well as in the optimization of agricultural activities based on realistic representation of soil moisture conditions.

Pattern Analysis of El Nino and La Nina Phenomenon Based on Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Rainfall Intensity using Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) in West Java Area

Science.gov (United States)

Prasetyo, Yudo; Nabilah, Farras

2017-12-01

Climate change occurs in 1998-2016 brings significant alteration in the earth surface. It is affects an extremely anomaly temperature such as El Nino and La Nina or mostly known as ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). West Java is one of the regions in Indonesia that encounters the impact of this phenomenon. Climate change due to ENSO also affects food production and other commodities. In this research, processing data method is conducted using programming language to process SST data and rainfall data from 1998 to 2016. The data are sea surface temperature from NOAA satellite, SST Reynolds (Sea Surface Temperature) and daily rainfall temperature from TRMM satellite. Data examination is done using analysis of rainfall spatial pattern and sea surface temperature (SST) where is affected by El Nino and La Nina phenomenon. This research results distribution map of SST and rainfall for each season to find out the impacts of El Nino and La Nina around West Java. El Nino and La Nina in Java Sea are occurring every August to February. During El Nino, sea surface temperature is between 27°C - 28°C with average temperature on 27.71°C. Rainfall intensity is 1.0 mm/day - 2.0 mm/day and the average are 1.63 mm/day. During La Nina, sea surface temperature is between 29°C - 30°C with average temperature on 29.06°C. Rainfall intensity is 9.0 mm/day - 10 mm/day, and the average is 9.74 mm/day. The correlation between rainfall and SST is 0,413 which is expresses a fairly strong correlation between parameters. The conclusion is, during La Nina SST and rainfall increase. While during El Nino SST and rainfall decrease. Hopefully this research could be a guideline to plan disaster mitigation in West Java region that is related extreme climate change.

Constraining continuous rainfall simulations for derived design flood estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sharma, A.; Mehrotra, R.; Westra, S.

2016-11-01

Stochastic rainfall generation is important for a range of hydrologic and water resources applications. Stochastic rainfall can be generated using a number of models; however, preserving relevant attributes of the observed rainfall-including rainfall occurrence, variability and the magnitude of extremes-continues to be difficult. This paper develops an approach to constrain stochastically generated rainfall with an aim of preserving the intensity-durationfrequency (IFD) relationships of the observed data. Two main steps are involved. First, the generated annual maximum rainfall is corrected recursively by matching the generated intensity-frequency relationships to the target (observed) relationships. Second, the remaining (non-annual maximum) rainfall is rescaled such that the mass balance of the generated rain before and after scaling is maintained. The recursive correction is performed at selected storm durations to minimise the dependence between annual maximum values of higher and lower durations for the same year. This ensures that the resulting sequences remain true to the observed rainfall as well as represent the design extremes that may have been developed separately and are needed for compliance reasons. The method is tested on simulated 6 min rainfall series across five Australian stations with different climatic characteristics. The results suggest that the annual maximum and the IFD relationships are well reproduced after constraining the simulated rainfall. While our presentation focusses on the representation of design rainfall attributes (IFDs), the proposed approach can also be easily extended to constrain other attributes of the generated rainfall, providing an effective platform for post-processing of stochastic rainfall generators.

[Runoff and sediment yielding processes on red soil engineering accumulation containing gravels by a simulated rainfall experiment].

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Qian-hua; Wang, Wen-long; Guo, Ming-ming; Bai, Yun; Deng, Li-qiang; Li, Jian-ming; Li, Yao-lin

2015-09-01

Engineering accumulation formed in production and construction projects is characterized by unique structure and complex material composition. Characteristics of soil erosion on the engineering accumulation significantly differ from those on farmland. An artificially simulated rainfall experiment was carried out to investigate the effects of rainfall intensity on the processes of runoff and sediment yielding on the engineering accumulation of different gravel contents (0%, 10%, 20% and 30%) in red soil regions. Results showed that the initial time of runoff generation decreased with increases in rainfall intensity and gravel content, the decreased amplitudes being about 48.5%-77.9% and 4.2%-34.2%, respectively. The initial time was found to be a power function of rainfall intensity. Both runoff velocity and runoff rate manifested a trend of first rising and then in a steady state with runoff duration. Rainfall intensity was found to be the main factor influencing runoff velocity and runoff rate, whereas the influence of gravel content was not significant. About 10% of gravel content was determined to be a critical value in the influence of gravel content on runoff volume. For the underlying surface of 10% gravel content, the runoff volume was least at rainfall intensity of 1.0 mm · min(-1) and maximum at rainfall intensity of greater than 1.0 mm · min(-1). The runoff volume in- creased 10%-60% with increase in rainfall intensity. Sediment concentration showed a sharp decline in first 6 min and then in a stable state in rest of time. Influence of rainfall intensity on sediment concentration decreased as gravel content increased. Gravels could reduce sediment yield significantly at rainfall intensity of greater than 1.0 mm · min(-1). Sediment yield was found to be a linear function of rainfall intensity and gravel content.

Effect of vegetal cover on runoff and soil erosion under light intensity events. Rainfall simulation over USLE plots.

Science.gov (United States)

Marques, María José; Bienes, Ramón; Jiménez, Luis; Pérez-Rodríguez, Raquel

2007-05-25

The erosive power of frequent light rainfalls is studied in this paper. Field experiments of simulated rainfall (Intensity, 21 mm h(-1) and kinetic energy, 13.5 J m(-2) mm(-1)) were conducted over 8 bounded USLE plots (80 m(2) each) with a slope of 10%. In 4 plots the soil was almost bare (<4% vegetation cover); the other 4 plots had almost full cover with natural vegetation in one year. Runoff and sediment yield was recorded. The results revealed the efficiency of vegetation cover reducing runoff and sediments. Runoff and sediments were negligible in covered plots. Therefore, in bare plots, although sediment yield was generally low, averaging 74+/-43 kg ha(-1), the mean of runoff achieved a coefficient of 35%, this magnitude has to be taken into consideration in this region verging on aridity. Rains around 13.5 J m(-2) mm(-1) of kinetic energy are quite frequent in the study area (34% of recorded rains en 12 years). If we would consider the usual lower limits from the literature, we would be ignoring an important percent of natural rainfall episodes.

Use of a large-scale rainfall simulator reveals novel insights into stemflow generation

Science.gov (United States)

Levia, D. F., Jr.; Iida, S. I.; Nanko, K.; Sun, X.; Shinohara, Y.; Sakai, N.

2017-12-01

Detailed knowledge of stemflow generation and its effects on both hydrological and biogoechemical cycling is important to achieve a holistic understanding of forest ecosystems. Field studies and a smaller set of experiments performed under laboratory conditions have increased our process-based knowledge of stemflow production. Building upon these earlier works, a large-scale rainfall simulator was employed to deepen our understanding of stemflow generation processes. The use of the large-scale rainfall simulator provides a unique opportunity to examine a range of rainfall intensities under constant conditions that are difficult under natural conditions due to the variable nature of rainfall intensities in the field. Stemflow generation and production was examined for three species- Cryptomeria japonica D. Don (Japanese cedar), Chamaecyparis obtusa (Siebold & Zucc.) Endl. (Japanese cypress), Zelkova serrata Thunb. (Japanese zelkova)- under both leafed and leafless conditions at several different rainfall intensities (15, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 100 mm h-1) using a large-scale rainfall simulator in National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (Tsukuba, Japan). Stemflow production and rates and funneling ratios were examined in relation to both rainfall intensity and canopy structure. Preliminary results indicate a dynamic and complex response of the funneling ratios of individual trees to different rainfall intensities among the species examined. This is partly the result of different canopy structures, hydrophobicity of vegetative surfaces, and differential wet-up processes across species and rainfall intensities. This presentation delves into these differences and attempts to distill them into generalizable patterns, which can advance our theories of stemflow generation processes and ultimately permit better stewardship of forest resources. ________________ Funding note: This research was supported by JSPS Invitation Fellowship for Research in

Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic

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Svoboda Vojtěch

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Projected changes of warm season (May–September rainfall events in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM simulations are assessed for the Czech Republic. Individual rainfall events are identified using the concept of minimum inter-event time and only heavy events are considered. The changes of rainfall event characteristics are evaluated between the control (1981–2000 and two scenario (2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods. Despite a consistent decrease in the number of heavy rainfall events, there is a large uncertainty in projected changes in seasonal precipitation total due to heavy events. Most considered characteristics (rainfall event depth, mean rainfall rate, maximum 60-min rainfall intensity and indicators of rainfall event erosivity are projected to increase and larger increases appear for more extreme values. Only rainfall event duration slightly decreases in the more distant scenario period according to the RCM simulations. As a consequence, the number of less extreme heavy rainfall events as well as the number of long events decreases in majority of the RCM simulations. Changes in most event characteristics (and especially in characteristics related to the rainfall intensity depend on changes in radiative forcing and temperature for the future periods. Only changes in the number of events and seasonal total due to heavy events depend significantly on altitude.

Rainfall simulation in education

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia

2016-04-01

Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

Relationship of Rainfall Distribution and Water Level on Major Flood 2014 in Pahang River Basin, Malaysia

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Nur Hishaam Sulaiman

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change gives impact on extreme hydrological events especially in extreme rainfall. This article discusses about the relationship of rainfall distribution and water level on major flood 2014 in Pahang River Basin, Malaysia in helping decision makers to flood management system. Based on DID Malaysia rainfall station, 56 stations have being use as point in this research and it is including Pahang, Terengganu, Kelantan and Perak. Data set for this study were analysed with GIS analysis using interpolation method to develop Isohyet map and XLstat statistical software for PCA and SPC analyses. The results that were obtained from the Isohyet Map for three months was mid-November, rainfall started to increase about in range of 800mm-1200mm and the intensity keep increased to 2200mm at mid-December 2014. The high rainfall intensity sense at highland that is upstream of Pahang River. The PCA and SPC analysis also indicates the high relationship between rainfall and water level of few places at Pahang River. The Sg. Yap station and Kg. Serambi station obtained the high relationship of rainfall and water level with factor loading value at 0.9330 and 0.9051 for each station. Hydrological pattern and trend are extremely affected by climate such as north east monsoon season that occurred in South China Sea and affected Pahang during November to March. The findings of this study are important to local authorities by providing basic data as guidelines to the integrated river management at Pahang River Basin.

The Rainfall Intensity Effects on 1–13 GHz UWB-Based 5G System for Outdoor Applications

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Joko Suryana

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper reports a research contribution on tropical outdoor channel characterization in 1–13 GHz band for 5G systems. This 1–13 GHz ultra-wideband (UWB channel characterization is formulated with rain intensity as the most important variable, from 20 mm/h to 200 mm/h. Tropical rain will cause pulse broadening and distorts the transmitted symbols, so the probability of symbol errors will increase. In this research, the bit error rate (BER performance evaluation is done using both matched filtering or correlator-based receivers. At no rain conditions, BER 10−6 will be attained at signal to noise ratio (SNR 5 dB, but at rainfall intensity 200 mm/h, the BER will fall to 10−2 for matched filter and 5×10-2 for correlator-based receivers. For improving the BER performance, an adaptive nonlinear phase equalizer is proposed which adopts multiple allpass biquad infinite impulse response (IIR filters combined with low-order finite impulse response (FIR filter to mitigate the nonlinearity phase and differential attenuation of magnitude responses due to antenna and tropical outdoor UWB channel effects. Our simulation results show that the proposed equalizer has worked successfully with BER 10−6 on the rain rate that is exceeded for 0.01% of the time (R0.01 rain intensity or 99.99% availability. In addition, at rainfall rate 120 mm/h, the proposed nonlinear phase equalizer can give 9 dB signal improvement.

Extreme value analysis of rainfall data for Kalpakkam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharma, Pramod Kumar; John Arul, A.; Ramkrishnan, M.; Bhuvana, V.

2016-01-01

Flood hazard evaluation is an important safety study for a Nuclear Power Plant. In the present study flood hazard at PFBR site due to rainfall is evaluated. Hazard estimation is a statistical procedure by which rainfall intensity versus occurrence frequency is estimated from historical records of rainfall data and extrapolated with asymptotic extreme value distribution. Rainfall data needed for flood hazard assessment is daily annual maximum rainfall (24 hrs data). The observed data points have been fitted using Gumbel, power law, and exponential distribution and return period has been estimated. The predicted 100 yrs return period rainfall for Kalpakkam ranges from 240 mm to 365 mm in a day and 1000 yrs return period rainfall ranges from 320 mm to 790 min in a day. To study the stationarity of rainfall data a moving window estimate of the parameters (exponential distribution) have also been performed. (author)

Derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide in Sicily

Science.gov (United States)

Caracciolo, Domenico; Arnone, Elisa; Noto, Leonardo V.

2015-04-01

Rainfall is the primary trigger of shallow landslides that can cause fatalities, damage to properties and economic losses in many areas of the world. For this reason, determining the rainfall amount/intensity responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to mitigate the related risk and save lives. Efforts have been made in different countries to investigate triggering conditions in order to define landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. The rainfall thresholds are generally described by a functional relationship of power in terms of cumulated or intensity event rainfall-duration, whose parameters are estimated empirically from the analysis of historical rainfall events that triggered landslides. The aim of this paper is the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy, by focusing particularly on the role of the antecedent wet conditions. The creation of the appropriate landslide-rainfall database likely represents one of main efforts in this type of analysis. For this work, historical landslide events occurred in Sicily from 1919 to 2001 were selected from the archive of the Sistema Informativo sulle Catastrofi Idrogeologiche, developed under the project Aree Vulnerabili Italiane. The corresponding triggering precipitations were screened from the raingauges network in Sicily, maintained by the Osservatorio delle Acque - Agenzia Regionale per i Rifiuti e le Acque. In particular, a detailed analysis was carried out to identify and reconstruct the hourly rainfall events that caused the selected landslides. A bootstrapping statistical technique has been used to determine the uncertainties associated with the threshold parameters. The rainfall thresholds at different exceedance probability levels, from 1% to 10%, were defined in terms of cumulated event rainfall, E, and rainfall duration, D. The role of rainfall prior to the damaging events was taken into account by including in the analysis

Reclaimed mineland curve number response to temporal distribution of rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Warner, R.C.; Agouridis, C.T.; Vingralek, P.T.; Fogle, A.W.

2010-01-01

The curve number (CN) method is a common technique to estimate runoff volume, and it is widely used in coal mining operations such as those in the Appalachian region of Kentucky. However, very little CN data are available for watersheds disturbed by surface mining and then reclaimed using traditional techniques. Furthermore, as the CN method does not readily account for variations in infiltration rates due to varying rainfall distributions, the selection of a single CN value to encompass all temporal rainfall distributions could lead engineers to substantially under- or over-size water detention structures used in mining operations or other land uses such as development. Using rainfall and runoff data from a surface coal mine located in the Cumberland Plateau of eastern Kentucky, CNs were computed for conventionally reclaimed lands. The effects of temporal rainfall distributions on CNs was also examined by classifying storms as intense, steady, multi-interval intense, or multi-interval steady. Results indicate that CNs for such reclaimed lands ranged from 62 to 94 with a mean value of 85. Temporal rainfall distributions were also shown to significantly affect CN values with intense storms having significantly higher CNs than multi-interval storms. These results indicate that a period of recovery is present between rainfall bursts of a multi-interval storm that allows depressional storage and infiltration rates to rebound. ?? 2010 American Water Resources Association.

Radar rainfall estimation for the identification of debris-flow precipitation thresholds

Science.gov (United States)

Marra, Francesco; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Borga, Marco

2014-05-01

Identification of rainfall thresholds for the prediction of debris-flow occurrence is a common approach for warning procedures. Traditionally the debris-flow triggering rainfall is derived from the closest available raingauge. However, the spatial and temporal variability of intense rainfall on mountainous areas, where debris flows take place, may lead to large uncertainty in point-based estimates. Nikolopoulos et al. (2014) have shown that this uncertainty translates into a systematic underestimation of the rainfall thresholds, leading to a step degradation of the performances of the rainfall threshold for identification of debris flows occurrence under operational conditions. A potential solution to this limitation lies on use of rainfall estimates from weather radar. Thanks to their high spatial and temporal resolutions, these estimates offer the advantage of providing rainfall information over the actual debris flow location. The aim of this study is to analyze the value of radar precipitation estimations for the identification of debris flow precipitation thresholds. Seven rainfall events that triggered debris flows in the Adige river basin (Eastern Italian Alps) are analyzed using data from a dense raingauge network and a C-Band weather radar. Radar data are elaborated by using a set of correction algorithms specifically developed for weather radar rainfall application in mountainous areas. Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of debris flows are identified in the form of average intensity-duration power law curves using a frequentist approach by using both radar rainfall estimates and raingauge data. Sampling uncertainty associated to the derivation of the thresholds is assessed by using a bootstrap technique (Peruccacci et al. 2012). Results show that radar-based rainfall thresholds are largely exceeding those obtained by using raingauge data. Moreover, the differences between the two thresholds may be related to the spatial characteristics (i.e., spatial

Investigation of the possible influence of Urbanization on Rainfall ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Higher rainfall is experienced on the western part of area as compared to the eastern side of the city. The reducing albedo over the city is a good indicator that the city is getting urbanized. The intensity of wet events is higher than dry events, characterized by high positive anomaly values. The number of rainy days is ...

Hydrological Modelling Using a Rainfall Simulator over an Experimental Hillslope Plot

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arpit Chouksey

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Hydrological processes are complex to compute in hilly areas when compared to plain areas. The governing processes behind runoff generation on hillslopes are subsurface storm flow, saturation excess flow, overland flow, return flow and pipe storage. The simulations of the above processes in the soil matrix require detailed hillslope hydrological modelling. In the present study, a hillslope experimental plot has been designed to study the runoff generation processes on the plot scale. The setup is designed keeping in view the natural hillslope conditions prevailing in the Northwestern Himalayas, India where high intensity rainfall events occur frequently. A rainfall simulator was installed over the experimental hillslope plot to generate rainfall with an intensity of 100 mm/h, which represents the dominating rainfall intensity range in the region. Soil moisture sensors were also installed at variable depths from 100 to 1000 mm at different locations of the plot to observe the soil moisture regime. From the experimental observations it was found that once the soil is saturated, it remains at field capacity for the next 24–36 h. Such antecedent moisture conditions are most favorable for the generation of rapid stormflow from hillslopes. A dye infiltration test was performed on the undisturbed soil column to observe the macropore fraction variability over the vegetated hillslopes. The estimated macropore fractions are used as essential input for the hillslope hydrological model. The main objective of the present study was to develop and test a method for estimating runoff responses from natural rainfall over hillslopes of the Northwestern Himalayas using a portable rainfall simulator. Using the experimental data and the developed conceptual model, the overland flow and the subsurface flow through a macropore-dominated area have been estimated/analyzed. The surface and subsurface runoff estimated using the developed hillslope hydrological model

Effects of rainfall patterns and land cover on the subsurface flow generation of sloping Ferralsols in southern China.

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Jian Duan

Full Text Available Rainfall patterns and land cover are two important factors that affect the runoff generation process. To determine the surface and subsurface flows associated with different rainfall patterns on sloping Ferralsols under different land cover types, observational data related to surface and subsurface flows from 5 m × 15 m plots were collected from 2010 to 2012. The experiment was conducted to assess three land cover types (grass, litter cover and bare land in the Jiangxi Provincial Soil and Water Conservation Ecological Park. During the study period, 114 natural rainfall events produced subsurface flow and were divided into four groups using k-means clustering according to rainfall duration, rainfall depth and maximum 30-min rainfall intensity. The results showed that the total runoff and surface flow values were highest for bare land under all four rainfall patterns and lowest for the covered plots. However, covered plots generated higher subsurface flow values than bare land. Moreover, the surface and subsurface flows associated with the three land cover types differed significantly under different rainfall patterns. Rainfall patterns with low intensities and long durations created more subsurface flow in the grass and litter cover types, whereas rainfall patterns with high intensities and short durations resulted in greater surface flow over bare land. Rainfall pattern I had the highest surface and subsurface flow values for the grass cover and litter cover types. The highest surface flow value and lowest subsurface flow value for bare land occurred under rainfall pattern IV. Rainfall pattern II generated the highest subsurface flow value for bare land. Therefore, grass or litter cover are able to convert more surface flow into subsurface flow under different rainfall patterns. The rainfall patterns studied had greater effects on subsurface flow than on total runoff and surface flow for covered surfaces, as well as a greater effect on surface

Comparing Approaches to Deal With Non-Gaussianity of Rainfall Data in Kriging-Based Radar-Gauge Rainfall Merging

Science.gov (United States)

Cecinati, F.; Wani, O.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

2017-11-01

Merging radar and rain gauge rainfall data is a technique used to improve the quality of spatial rainfall estimates and in particular the use of Kriging with External Drift (KED) is a very effective radar-rain gauge rainfall merging technique. However, kriging interpolations assume Gaussianity of the process. Rainfall has a strongly skewed, positive, probability distribution, characterized by a discontinuity due to intermittency. In KED rainfall residuals are used, implicitly calculated as the difference between rain gauge data and a linear function of the radar estimates. Rainfall residuals are non-Gaussian as well. The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of applying KED to non-Gaussian rainfall residuals, and to assess the best techniques to improve Gaussianity. We compare Box-Cox transformations with λ parameters equal to 0.5, 0.25, and 0.1, Box-Cox with time-variant optimization of λ, normal score transformation, and a singularity analysis technique. The results suggest that Box-Cox with λ = 0.1 and the singularity analysis is not suitable for KED. Normal score transformation and Box-Cox with optimized λ, or λ = 0.25 produce satisfactory results in terms of Gaussianity of the residuals, probability distribution of the merged rainfall products, and rainfall estimate quality, when validated through cross-validation. However, it is observed that Box-Cox transformations are strongly dependent on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and on the units used for the rainfall intensity. Overall, applying transformations results in a quantitative improvement of the rainfall estimates only if the correct transformations for the specific data set are used.

Determined of Rainfall Erosivity Indices (EI30, Lal, Hudson and Onchev for Namak Lake Basin

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Z.T. Alipour

2011-06-01

Full Text Available In this research the indices EI30, AIm,‎ KE>1‎ as well as P/√t‎ were determined for 16 pluviograph as well as for 3 Namak Lake Basin nearby stations. Regression relationships were established between the dependent variables of EI30, AIm, KE>1‎ as well as P/√t‎ Indices and other easily accessible rainfall indices of: fournier, modified fournier, maximum monthly rainfall, maximum daily rainfall, standard deviation of monthly and annual rainfall as well as pluviometer site elevations. This made the establishment of appropriate relationships between rainfall intensity dependent indices and the dependent variable of rainfall intensity (at stations where intensity was non-existent possible. In the next step, the indices as well as easily accessible rainfall data from pluviograph stations were exploited to find out EI30 ,AIm ,‎ KE>1‎ as well as P/√t‎ indices, while using the previously obtained regression relationships.

Performance of high-resolution X-band radar for rainfall measurement in The Netherlands

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C. Z. van de Beek

2010-02-01

Full Text Available This study presents an analysis of 195 rainfall events gathered with the X-band weather radar SOLIDAR and a tipping bucket rain gauge network near Delft, The Netherlands, between May 1993 and April 1994. The aim of this paper is to present a thorough analysis of a climatological dataset using a high spatial (120 m and temporal (16 s resolution X-band radar. This makes it a study of the potential for high-resolution rainfall measurements with non-polarimetric X-band radar over flat terrain. An appropriate radar reflectivity – rain rate relation is derived from measurements of raindrop size distributions and compared with radar – rain gauge data. The radar calibration is assessed using a long-term comparison of rain gauge measurements with corresponding radar reflectivities as well as by analyzing the evolution of the stability of ground clutter areas over time. Three different methods for ground clutter correction as well as the effectiveness of forward and backward attenuation correction algorithms have been studied. Five individual rainfall events are discussed in detail to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of high-resolution X-band radar and the effectiveness of the presented correction methods. X-band radar is found to be able to measure the space-time variation of rainfall at high resolution, far greater than what can be achieved by rain gauge networks or a typical operational C-band weather radar. On the other hand, SOLIDAR can suffer from receiver saturation, wet radome attenuation as well as signal loss along the path. During very strong convective situations the signal can even be lost completely. In combination with several rain gauges for quality control, high resolution X-band radar is considered to be suitable for rainfall monitoring over relatively small (urban catchments. These results offer great prospects for the new high resolution polarimetric doppler X-band radar IDRA.

Urbanization Induces Nonstationarity in Extreme Rainfall Characteristics over Contiguous United States

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Singh, J.; Paimazumder, D.; Mohanty, M. P.; Ghosh, S.; Karmakar, S.

2017-12-01

The statistical assumption of stationarity in hydrologic extreme time/event series has been relied heavily in frequency analysis. However, due to the perceivable impacts of climate change, urbanization and land use pattern, assumption of stationarity in hydrologic time series will draw erroneous results, which in turn may affect the policy and decision-making. Also, it may no longer be reasonable to model rainfall extremes as a stationary process, yet nearly all-existing infrastructure design, water resource planning methods assume that historical extreme rainfall events will remain unchanged in the future. Therefore, a comprehensive multivariate nonstationary frequency analysis has been conducted for the CONUS to identify the precipitation characteristics (intensity, duration and depth) responsible for significant nonstationarity. We use 0.250 resolution of precipitation data for a period of 1948-2006, in a Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) framework. A cluster of 74 GAMLSS models has been developed by considering nonstationarity in different combinations of distribution parameters through different regression techniques, and the best-fit model is further applied for bivariate analysis. Next, four demographic variables i.e. population density, housing unit, low income population and population below poverty line, have been utilized to identify the urbanizing regions through developing urbanization index. Furthermore to strengthen the analysis, Land cover map for 1992, 2001 and 2006 have been utilized to identify the location with the high change in impervious surface. The results show significant differences in the 50- and 100-year intensity, volume and duration estimated under the both stationary and nonstationary condition in urbanizing regions. Further results exhibit that rainfall duration has been decreased while, rainfall volume has been increased under nonstationary condition, which indicates increasing flood potential of

Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones

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Natalie Melissa McLean

2015-01-01

Full Text Available End-of-century changes in Caribbean climate extremes are derived from the Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS regional climate model (RCM under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios across five rainfall zones. Trends in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature extremes from the RCM are validated against meteorological stations over 1979–1989. The model displays greater skill at representing trends in consecutive wet days (CWD and extreme rainfall (R95P than consecutive dry days (CDD, wet days (R10, and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5. Trends in warm nights, cool days, and warm days were generally well reproduced. Projections for 2071–2099 relative to 1961–1989 are obtained from the ECHAM5 driven RCM. Northern and eastern zones are projected to experience more intense rainfall under A2 and B2. There is less consensus across scenarios with respect to changes in the dry and wet spell lengths. However, there is indication that a drying trend may be manifest over zone 5 (Trinidad and northern Guyana. Changes in the extreme temperature indices generally suggest a warmer Caribbean towards the end of century across both scenarios with the strongest changes over zone 4 (eastern Caribbean.

Quality-control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK.

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Blenkinsop, Stephen; Lewis, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven C; Fowler, Hayley J

2017-02-01

Sub-daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non-operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short-duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub-daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near-complete hourly records for 1992-2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n-largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north-south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub-daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality-controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality-control procedures for sub-daily data, the validation of the new generation of very high

Rainfall influence on plot-scale runoff and soil loss from repeated burning in a Mediterranean-shrub ecosystem, Valencia, Spain

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González-Pelayo, O.; Andreu, V.; Gimeno-García, E.; Campo, J.; Rubio, J. L.

2010-06-01

The effect of a repeated burning on soil hydrology and erosive parameters was studied on a Mediterranean forest soil (Rendzic leptosol) with the aim of identifying the effects of the fire and climatic parameters related to the post-fire runoff and soil loss. The study was carried out in an Experimental Permanent Field Station (La Concordia), close to Valencia (Spain). This field station is located on a calcareous hillside facing SSE, and is composed of nine erosion plots (20 × 4 m). Firstly, experimental fires were performed in June 1995 with two fire treatments (T1 or high severity fire and T2 or moderate severity fire) and a control one (unburnt, T3). The repeated fire (low severity) was carried out in July 2003. The studied period was focused from 18 months before the repeated fire (July 2003) until 18 months after it. Rainfall characteristics of each single event were recorded, which allowed us to statistically distinguish four time periods according to the rainfall intensity and duration: periods I (March 2002 to May 2003) and III (December 2003 to early May 2004) with low intensity and long duration rainfalls, and periods II (June 2003 to November 2003) and IV (late May 2004 to December 2004) with high intensity and short duration rainfalls. Before the 2003 fire, the partial recovery of soil and vegetation from the previous burning in 1995 led to a diminution in the runoff rates (6.5 L m - 2 in burned plots and 1.8 L m - 2 in unburnt ones). Six months later (period II), runoff increased in one order of magnitude (23.9 L m - 2 in burnt plots and 1.1 L m - 2 in the unburnt ones) due, in part, to the short time elapsed from fire until high intensity rainfalls. These differences in runoff production were maintained during the whole post-fire period. Fire effects were reflected in the erosion rates. Soil losses prior to the 2003 fire, in both fire treatments and in the control one, were scant relative to post-fire levels. However, six months after the repeated

Scale invariance properties of rainfall in AMMA-CATCH observatory ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

1International Chair in Physics Mathematics and Applications (CIPMA-Chair Unesco) , University of .... modeling the distribution of rainfall intensities, in time and space. There is particular lack of knowledge about rainfall variability at different scales [1].The knotty problem of .... Lovejoy [6] have provided the definition of.

Long term high resolution rainfall runoff observations for improved water balance uncertainty and database QA-QC in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed.

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Bitew, M. M.; Goodrich, D. C.; Demaria, E.; Heilman, P.; Kautz, M. A.

2017-12-01

Walnut Gulch is a semi-arid environment experimental watershed and Long Term Agro-ecosystem Research (LTAR) site managed by USDA-ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center for which high-resolution long-term hydro-climatic data are available across its 150 km2 drainage area. In this study, we present the analysis of 50 years of continuous hourly rainfall data to evaluate runoff control and generation processes for improving the QA-QC plans of Walnut Gulch to create high-quality data set that is critical for reducing water balance uncertainties. Multiple linear regression models were developed to relate rainfall properties, runoff characteristics and watershed properties. The rainfall properties were summarized to event based total depth, maximum intensity, duration, the location of the storm center with respect to the outlet, and storm size normalized to watershed area. We evaluated the interaction between the runoff and rainfall and runoff as antecedent moisture condition (AMC), antecedent runoff condition (ARC) and, runoff depth and duration for each rainfall events. We summarized each of the watershed properties such as contributing area, slope, shape, channel length, stream density, channel flow area, and percent of the area of retention stock ponds for each of the nested catchments in Walnut Gulch. The evaluation of the model using basic and categorical statistics showed good predictive skill throughout the watersheds. The model produced correlation coefficients ranging from 0.4-0.94, Nash efficiency coefficients up to 0.77, and Kling-Gupta coefficients ranging from 0.4 to 0.98. The model predicted 92% of all runoff generations and 98% of no-runoff across all sub-watersheds in Walnut Gulch. The regression model also indicated good potential to complement the QA-QC procedures in place for Walnut Gulch dataset publications developed over the years since the 1960s through identification of inconsistencies in rainfall and runoff relations.

Analyses of the temporal and spatial structures of heavy rainfall from a catalog of high-resolution radar rainfall fields

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Smith, James A.; Baeck, Mary Lynn

2014-01-01

that relate to size, structure and evolution of heavy rainfall. Extreme rainfall is also linked with severe weather (tornados, large hail and damaging wind). The diurnal cycle of rainfall for heavy rain days is characterized by an early peak in the largest rainfall rates, an afternoon-evening peak in rain...

Continuous rainfall simulation for regional flood risk assessment - application in the Austrian Alps

Science.gov (United States)

Salinas, Jose Luis; Nester, Thomas; Komma, Jürgen; Blöschl, Günter

2017-04-01

Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of the observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks. Furthermore, the replication of the observed rainfall spatial and temporal correlations allows to model important other hydrological features like antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events. In this work, we present an application in the Tirol region (Austrian alps) of a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is modeled on a station basis as a mutivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space, and then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space. For the sake of simplicity, the parameters of the Gamma distributions are assumed to vary monthly according to a sinusoidal function, and are calibrated trying to simultaneously reproduce i) mean annual rainfall, ii) mean daily rainfall amounts, iii) standard deviations of daily rainfall amounts, and iv) 24-hours intensity duration frequency curve. The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the intensity-duration-frequency curves aggregated at different spatial and temporal scales reproduce the measured ones. Bardossy, A., and E. J. Plate (1992), Space-time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric circulation patterns, Water Resour. Res., 28(5), 1247-1259, doi:10.1029/91WR02589.

A Metastatistical Approach to Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events

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Zorzetto, E.; Marani, M.

2017-12-01

The estimation of the average recurrence interval of intense rainfall events is a central issue for both hydrologic modeling and engineering design. These estimates require the inference of the properties of the right tail of the statistical distribution of precipitation, a task often performed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, estimated either from a samples of annual maxima (AM) or with a peaks over threshold (POT) approach. However, these approaches require long and homogeneous rainfall records, which often are not available, especially in the case of remote-sensed rainfall datasets. We use here, and tailor it to remotely-sensed rainfall estimates, an alternative approach, based on the metastatistical extreme value distribution (MEVD), which produces estimates of rainfall extreme values based on the probability distribution function (pdf) of all measured `ordinary' rainfall event. This methodology also accounts for the interannual variations observed in the pdf of daily rainfall by integrating over the sample space of its random parameters. We illustrate the application of this framework to the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis rainfall dataset, where MEVD optimally exploits the relatively short datasets of satellite-sensed rainfall, while taking full advantage of its high spatial resolution and quasi-global coverage. Accuracy of TRMM precipitation estimates and scale issues are here investigated for a case study located in the Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma, using a dense network of rain gauges for independent ground validation. The methodology contributes to our understanding of the risk of extreme rainfall events, as it allows i) an optimal use of the TRMM datasets in estimating the tail of the probability distribution of daily rainfall, and ii) a global mapping of daily rainfall extremes and distributional tail properties, bridging the existing gaps in rain gauges networks.

PDS-Modelling and Regional Bayesian Estimation of Extreme Rainfalls

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan; Harremoës, Poul

1994-01-01

rainfalls. The method is applied to two variables: the total precipitation depth and the maximum 10-minute rain intensity of individual storms. On the basis of the atsite modelling a regional analysis is carried out. It is shown that the previous assumption of spatial homogeneity of extreme rainfalls...

Variability in rainfall over tropical Australia during summer and relationships with the Bilybara High

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Reason, C. J. C.

2018-04-01

Variability in summer rainfall over tropical Australia, defined here as that part of the continent north of 25° S, and its linkages with regional circulation are examined. In particular, relationships with the mid-level anticyclone (termed the Bilybara High) that exists over the northwestern Australia/Timor Sea region between August and April are considered. This High forms to the southwest of the upper-level anticyclone via a balance between the upper-level divergence over the region of tropical precipitation maximum and planetary vorticity advection and moves south and strengthens during the spring and summer. It is shown that variations in the strength and position of the Bilybara High are related to anomalies in precipitation and temperature over large parts of tropical Australia as well as some areas in the south and southeast of the landmass. Some of the interannual variations in the High are related to ENSO, but there are also a number of neutral years with large anomalies in the High and hence in rainfall. On decadal time scales, a strong relationship exists between the leading mode of tropical Australian rainfall and the Bilybara High. On both interannual and decadal scales, the relationships between the High and the regional rainfall involve changes in the monsoonal northwesterlies blowing towards northern Australia, and further south, in the easterly trade winds over the region.

A global dataset of sub-daily rainfall indices

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Fowler, H. J.; Lewis, E.; Blenkinsop, S.; Guerreiro, S.; Li, X.; Barbero, R.; Chan, S.; Lenderink, G.; Westra, S.

2017-12-01

It is still uncertain how hydrological extremes will change with global warming as we do not fully understand the processes that cause extreme precipitation under current climate variability. The INTENSE project is using a novel and fully-integrated data-modelling approach to provide a step-change in our understanding of the nature and drivers of global precipitation extremes and change on societally relevant timescales, leading to improved high-resolution climate model representation of extreme rainfall processes. The INTENSE project is in conjunction with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges Project (GEWEX) Science questions. A new global sub-daily precipitation dataset has been constructed (data collection is ongoing). Metadata for each station has been calculated, detailing record lengths, missing data, station locations. A set of global hydroclimatic indices have been produced based upon stakeholder recommendations including indices that describe maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of storms, frequency of storms above specific thresholds and information about the diurnal cycle. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices will be freely available to the wider scientific community.

Hydrologic and Erosional Response to Natural Rainfall and Effects of Conservation and Rehabilitation Measures in a Degraded Dry Sub-Humid Watershed of the Ethiopian Highlands

Science.gov (United States)

McHugh, O. V.; Liu, B. M.; Steenhuis, T. S.

2005-12-01

A good understanding of runoff and erosion under actual field conditions is essential for effective planning of land conservation in the Ethiopian highlands. Hydrologic and sediment yield response to natural rainfall was measured during 3 rainy seasons (2003-2004) at plot and catchment scales with and without conservation practices. Results show that as expected surface runoff generation and erosion rates are significantly influenced by rainfall intensity, land use, scale of measurement, land slope, and the presence or not of conservation measures. Seasonal runoff coefficient and sediment yield were significantly better correlated to number of storms with high 30-minute maximum rainfall intensity (I30 > 20 mm h-1) than to total seasonal rainfall depth. Under conventional management systems cropland on slopes greater than 3 % generated significantly more (over twice) surface runoff and sediment yield compared with shrub and open forest grazing land on steep slopes (34 %). Plot measured surface runoff coefficients (for crop and grazing land uses which cover over 90 % of the catchment area) exceeded total catchment streamflow discharge demonstrating a scale effect. The observed scale effect, a stronger correlation of runoff with maximum rainfall intensity than rainfall depth and average rainfall intensity, and observed significant increases in runoff with steeper land slopes indicate that Hortonian overland flow is the primary runoff generation mechanism in the study zone. Concerning slope effects, cropland on mild slopes produced relatively low seasonal sediment yields (hillside conservation (areas with bench terracing, planted tree seedlings, and small area closure from livestock grazing) resulted in significantly lower catchment peak streamflow discharge and longer duration streamflow compared to a catchment in the same watershed without these measures. Cropland tied ridge and no till conservation practices reduced surface runoff and soil loss during seasons with

Nutrition of intensive pastures in the summer rainfall areas of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Keywords: Fertilizer nitrogen sources; Fertilizers; Grasses; Legumes; Lime; Nitrogen application responses; Phosphorous; Potassium; Soil acidity; cutting; fertilizer; grass; grazing; legume; minerals; nitrogen; persistence; phosphorus; productivity; soil test calibrations; utilization; soils; nutrition; pastures; summer rainfall area; ...

Impact of Rainfall on Multilane Roundabout Flowrate Contraction

Science.gov (United States)

PARKSHIR, Amir; BEN-EDIGBE, Johnnie

2017-08-01

In this study, roundabouts at two sites in the Malaysia were investigated under rainy and dry weather conditions. Two automatic traffic counters per roundabout arm as well as two rain gauge stations were used to collect data at each surveyed site. Nearly one million vehicles were investigated at four sites. Vehicle volume, speeds and headways for entry and circulating flows were collected continuously at each roundabout about arm for six weeks between November 2013 and January 2014. Empirical regression technique and gap-acceptance models were modified and used to analyze roundabout capacity. Good fits to the data were obtained; the results also fit models developed in other countries. It was assumed that entry capacity depends on the geometric characteristics of the roundabout, particularly the diameter of the outside circle of the intersection. It was also postulated that geometric characteristics determine the speed of vehicles around the central island and, therefore, have an impact on the gap-acceptance process and consequently the capacity. Only off-peak traffic data per light, moderate or heavy rainfall were analysed. Peak traffic data were not used because of the presence of peak traffic flow. Passenger car equivalent values being an instrument of conversion from traffic volume to flow were modified. Results show that, average entry capacity loss is about 22.6% under light rainfall, about 18.1% under moderate rainfall and about 5.6% under heavy rainfall. Significant entry capacity loss would result from rainfall irrespective of their intensity. It can be postulated that entry capacity loss under heavy rainfall is lowest because the advantage enjoyed by circulating flow would be greatly reduced with increased rainfall intensity. The paper concluded that rainfall has significant impact of flowrate contraction at roundabouts.

Technical note: Space-time analysis of rainfall extremes in Italy: clues from a reconciled dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Libertino, Andrea; Ganora, Daniele; Claps, Pierluigi

2018-05-01

Like other Mediterranean areas, Italy is prone to the development of events with significant rainfall intensity, lasting for several hours. The main triggering mechanisms of these events are quite well known, but the aim of developing rainstorm hazard maps compatible with their actual probability of occurrence is still far from being reached. A systematic frequency analysis of these occasional highly intense events would require a complete countrywide dataset of sub-daily rainfall records, but this kind of information was still lacking for the Italian territory. In this work several sources of data are gathered, for assembling the first comprehensive and updated dataset of extreme rainfall of short duration in Italy. The resulting dataset, referred to as the Italian Rainfall Extreme Dataset (I-RED), includes the annual maximum rainfalls recorded in 1 to 24 consecutive hours from more than 4500 stations across the country, spanning the period between 1916 and 2014. A detailed description of the spatial and temporal coverage of the I-RED is presented, together with an exploratory statistical analysis aimed at providing preliminary information on the climatology of extreme rainfall at the national scale. Due to some legal restrictions, the database can be provided only under certain conditions. Taking into account the potentialities emerging from the analysis, a description of the ongoing and planned future work activities on the database is provided.

Modifying rainfall patterns in a Mediterranean shrubland: system design, plant responses, and experimental burning.

Science.gov (United States)

Parra, Antonio; Ramírez, David A; Resco, Víctor; Velasco, Ángel; Moreno, José M

2012-11-01

Global warming is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the Mediterranean region, as well as the occurrence of large fires. Understanding the interactions between drought, fire and plant responses is therefore important. In this study, we present an experiment in which rainfall patterns were modified to simulate various levels of drought in a Mediterranean shrubland of central Spain dominated by Cistus ladanifer, Erica arborea and Phillyrea angustifolia. A system composed of automatic rainout shelters with an irrigation facility was used. It was designed to be applied in vegetation 2 m tall, treat relatively large areas (36 m2), and be quickly dismantled to perform experimental burning and reassembled back again. Twenty plots were subjected to four rainfall treatments from early spring: natural rainfall, long-term average rainfall (2 months drought), moderate drought (25% reduction from long-term rainfall, 5 months drought) and severe drought (45% reduction, 7 months drought). The plots were burned in late summer, without interfering with rainfall manipulations. Results indicated that rainfall manipulations caused differences in soil moisture among treatments, leading to reduced water availability and growth of C. ladanifer and E. arborea in the drought treatments. However, P. angustifolia was not affected by the manipulations. Rainout shelters had a negligible impact on plot microenvironment. Experimental burns were of high fire intensity, without differences among treatments. Our system provides a tool to study the combined effects of drought and fire on vegetation, which is important to assess the threats posed by climate change in Mediterranean environments.

Multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Willems, Patrick

2013-04-01

Many studies have anticipated a worldwide increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes and floods since the last decade(s). Natural variability by climate oscillations partly determines the observed evolution of precipitation extremes. Based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles, it is shown that hydrological extremes have oscillatory behaviour at multidecadal time scales. Results are based on nearly independent extremes extracted from long-term historical time series of precipitation intensities and river flows. Study regions include Belgium - The Netherlands (Meuse basin), Ethiopia (Blue Nile basin) and Ecuador (Paute basin). For Belgium - The Netherlands, the past 100 years showed larger and more hydrological extremes around the 1910s, 1950-1960s, and more recently during the 1990-2000s. Interestingly, the oscillations for southwestern Europe are anti-correlated with these of northwestern Europe, thus with oscillation highs in the 1930-1940s and 1970s. The precipitation oscillation peaks are explained by persistence in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic during periods of 10 to 15 years. References: Ntegeka V., Willems P. (2008), 'Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100 years time series of 10 minutes rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium', Water Resources Research, 44, W07402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006471 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water

Recovery of a soil under different vegetation one year after a high intensity wildfire

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Martín

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Studies on soil recovery in fragile ecosystems following high intensity wildfires are scarce. The aim of the present investigation is to evaluate the impact of a high intensity wildfire in an ecosystem under different vegetation (shrubland and pinewood located at Vilardevós (Galicia, NW Spain and highly susceptible to suffer soil erosion due to the steep relief and high erositivity of the rainfall. Soil samples were collected from the A horizon (0-5 cm 1 year after the fire and soil quality was evaluated by analysis of several physical, chemical and biochemical properties measured in the fraction chemical properties > physical properties. The data also showed that the fire impact was different depending on the soil vegetation considered (shrubland and pinewood. Moreover, the data confirmed the slow soil recovery in this fragile ecosystem and, therefore, the need of adopting post-fire stabilisation and rehabilitation treatments in order to minimize the post-fire erosion and soil degradation.

Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

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P. Skougaard Kaspersen

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and thus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach suitable for examining the susceptibility of European cities to pluvial flooding owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and future climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces based on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984–2014 are combined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future rainfall extremes to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood hazard assessments. The methodology is evaluated for the Danish city of Odense. Results suggest that the past 30 years of urban development alone has increased the city's exposure to pluvial flooding by 6% for 10-year rainfall up to 26% for 100-year rainfall. Corresponding estimates for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (2071–2100 are in the order of 40 and 100%, indicating that land cover changes within cities can play a central role for the cities' exposure to flooding and conversely also for their adaptation to a changed climate.

Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Skougaard Kaspersen, P.; Høegh Ravn, N.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Madsen, H.; Drews, M.

2015-06-01

The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and thus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach suitable for examining the susceptibility of European cities to pluvial flooding owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and future climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces based on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984-2014 are combined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future rainfall extremes to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood hazard assessments. The methodology is evaluated for the Danish city of Odense. Results suggest that the past 30 years of urban development alone has increased the city's exposure to pluvial flooding by 6% for 10-year rainfall up to 26% for 100-year rainfall. Corresponding estimates for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (2071-2100) are in the order of 40 and 100%, indicating that land cover changes within cities can play a central role for the cities' exposure to flooding and conversely also for their adaptation to a changed climate.

The effect of rainfall and competition intensity on forest response to drought: lessons learned from a dry extreme.

Science.gov (United States)

Dorman, Michael; Perevolotsky, Avi; Sarris, Dimitrios; Svoray, Tal

2015-04-01

We investigated forest responses to global warming by observing: (1) planted Pinus halepensis forests, (2) an aridity gradient-with annual precipitation (P) ranging from ~300 to ~700 mm, and (3) periods of wet and dry climate that included the driest period during at least the last 110 years. We examined: (1) how the length of climatic integration periods to which trees are most responsive varies in space and time, (2) the extent to which competition modulates growth decline during drought (2011) and subsequent recovery (2012) years. The temporal scale of rainfall that was most influential on growth shortened in progressing southward, and in the drier than in the wetter period. Long-term underground water storage, as reflected in the relationship of growth to multiple-year rainfall, remained significant up to the point where P ≈ 500 mm. Under drier conditions (P < 500 mm) in both space and time, influential rainfall scales shortened, probably reflecting a diminishing role of water storage. These drier locations are the first from which the species would be likely to retreat if global warming intensified. Competition appeared to set an upper limit to growth, while growth variation among individual trees increased as competition-intensity decreased. That upper limit increased in 2012 compared with 2011. The observed insensitivity of slow-growing trees to competition implies that mortality risk may be density independent, when even any potential for higher soil moisture availability in open stands is lost to evapotranspiration before it can benefit tree growth.

Effects of Rainfall Characteristics on the Stability of Tropical Residual Soil Slope

OpenAIRE

Rahardjo Harianto; Satyanaga Alfrendo; Leong Eng Choon

2016-01-01

Global climate change has a significant impact on rainfall characteristics, sea water level and groundwater table. Changes in rainfall characteristics may affect stability of slopes and have severe impacts on sustainable urban living. Information on the intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall is often required by geotechnical engineers for performing slope stability analyses. Many seepage analyses are commonly performed using the most extreme rainfall possible which is uneconomical in d...

Investigation of Rainfall-Runoff Processes and Soil Moisture Dynamics in Grassland Plots under Simulated Rainfall Conditions

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Nana Zhao

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The characteristics of rainfall-runoff are important aspects of hydrological processes. In this study, rainfall-runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics at different soil depths and slope positions of grassland with two different row spacings (5 cm and 10 cm, respectively, referred to as R5 and R10 were analyzed, by means of a solution of rainfall simulation experiments. Bare land was also considered as a comparison. The results showed that the mechanism of runoff generation was mainly excess infiltration overland flow. The surface runoff amount of R5 plot was greater than that of R10, while the interflow amount of R10 was larger than that of R5 plot, although the differences of the subsurface runoff processes between plots R5 and R10 were little. The effects of rainfall intensity on the surface runoff were significant, but not obvious on the interflow and recession curve, which can be described as a simple exponential equation, with a fitting degree of up to 0.854–0.996. The response of soil moisture to rainfall and evapotranspiration was mainly in the 0–20 cm layer, and the response at the 40 cm layer to rainfall was slower and generally occurred after the rainfall stopped. The upper slope generally responded fastest to rainfall, and the foot of the slope was the slowest. The results presented here could provide insights into understanding the surface and subsurface runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics for grasslands in semi-arid regions.

Evaluation of high intensity precipitation from 16 Regional climate models over a meso-scale catchment in the Midlands Regions of England

Science.gov (United States)

Wetterhall, F.; He, Y.; Cloke, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Freer, J.; Wilson, M.; McGregor, G.

2009-04-01

Local flooding events are often triggered by high-intensity rain-fall events, and it is important that these can be correctly modelled by Regional Climate Models (RCMs) if the results are to be used in climate impact assessment. In this study, daily precipitation from 16 RCMs was compared with observations over a meso-scale catchment in the Midlands Region of England. The RCM data was provided from the European research project ENSEMBLES and the precipitation data from the UK MetOffice. The RCMs were all driven by reanalysis data from the ERA40 dataset over the time period 1961-2000. The ENSEMBLES data is on the spatial scale of 25 x 25 km and it was disaggregated onto a 5 x 5 km grid over the catchment and compared with interpolated observational data with the same resolution. The mean precipitation was generally underestimated by the ENSEMBLES data, and the maximum and persistence of high intensity rainfall was even more underestimated. The inter-annual variability was not fully captured by the RCMs, and there was a systematic underestimation of precipitation during the autumn months. The spatial pattern in the modelled precipitation data was too smooth in comparison with the observed data, especially in the high altitudes in the western part of the catchment where the high precipitation usually occurs. The RCM outputs cannot reproduce the current high intensity precipitation events that are needed to sufficiently model extreme flood events. The results point out the discrepancy between climate model output and the high intensity precipitation input needs for hydrological impact modelling.

Relationships between High Impact Tropical Rainfall Events and Environmental Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Painter, C.; Varble, A.; Zipser, E. J.

2017-12-01

While rainfall increases as moisture and vertical motion increase, relationships between regional environmental conditions and rainfall event characteristics remain more uncertain. Of particular importance are long duration, heavy rain rate, and significant accumulation events that contribute sizable fractions of overall precipitation over short time periods. This study seeks to establish relationships between observed rainfall event properties and environmental conditions. Event duration, rain rate, and rainfall accumulation are derived using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 3-hourly, 0.25° resolution rainfall retrieval from 2002-2013 between 10°N and 10°S. Events are accumulated into 2.5° grid boxes and matched to monthly mean total column water vapor (TCWV) and 500-hPa vertical motion (omega) in each 2.5° grid box, retrieved from ERA-interim reanalysis. Only months with greater than 3 mm/day rainfall are included to ensure sufficient sampling. 90th and 99th percentile oceanic events last more than 20% longer and have rain rates more than 20% lower than those over land for a given TCWV-omega condition. Event duration and accumulation are more sensitive to omega than TCWV over oceans, but more sensitive to TCWV than omega over land, suggesting system size, propagation speed, and/or forcing mechanism differences for land and ocean regions. Sensitivities of duration, rain rate, and accumulation to TCWV and omega increase with increasing event extremity. For 3B42 and ERA-Interim relationships, the 90th percentile oceanic event accumulation increases by 0.93 mm for every 1 Pa/min change in rising motion, but this increases to 3.7 mm for every 1 Pa/min for the 99th percentile. Over land, the 90th percentile event accumulation increases by 0.55 mm for every 1 mm increase in TCWV, whereas the 99th percentile increases by 0.90 mm for every 1 mm increase in TCWV. These changes in event accumulation are highly correlated with changes in event

Performance of High Resolution Satellite Rainfall Products over Data Scarce Parts of Eastern Ethiopia

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Shimelis B. Gebere

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Accurate estimation of rainfall in mountainous areas is necessary for various water resource-related applications. Though rain gauges accurately measure rainfall, they are rarely found in mountainous regions and satellite rainfall data can be used as an alternative source over these regions. This study evaluated the performance of three high-resolution satellite rainfall products, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42, the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP_MVK+, and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely-Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN at daily, monthly, and seasonal time scales against rain gauge records over data-scarce parts of Eastern Ethiopia. TRMM 3B42 rain products show relatively better performance at the three time scales, while PERSIANN did much better than GSMaP. At the daily time scale, TRMM correctly detected 88% of the rainfall from the rain gauge. The correlation at the monthly time scale also revealed that the TRMM has captured the observed rainfall better than the other two. For Belg (short rain and Kiremt (long rain seasons, the TRMM did better than the others by far. However, during Bega (dry season, PERSIANN showed a relatively good estimate. At all-time scales, noticing the bias, TRMM tends to overestimate, while PERSIANN and GSMaP tend to underestimate the rainfall. The overall result suggests that monthly and seasonal TRMM rainfall performed better than daily rainfall. It has also been found that both GSMaP and PERSIANN performed better in relatively flat areas than mountainous areas. Before the practical use of TRMM, the RMSE value needs to be improved by considering the topography of the study area or adjusting the bias.

TRMM Applications for Rainfall-Induced Landslide Early Warning

Science.gov (United States)

Dok, A.; Fukuoka, H.; Hong, Y.

2012-04-01

(snake line) were independently plotted to investigate the impact of short-term rainfall intensity and accumulated effective rainfall volume respectively for obtaining some probabilistic threshold. Japanese SWI was also tested to distribute threshold regarding to highly nonlinear rainfall patterns in predicting the landslide occurrence through the plot of total water of 3 serial tank models and daily precipitation. As a result, the snake line plots using TMPA work well for landslide warning in the selected cities; while SWI plots shows unusual peak value on the day of the debris flow occurrence. Graph of daily precipitation vs SWI implies possible zone of critical line, and second peak appearance 1 day before, indicating possibility of early warning.

Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in Slovenia

Science.gov (United States)

Peternel, Tina; Jemec Auflič, Mateja; Rosi, Ascanio; Segoni, Samuele; Komac, Marko; Casagli, Nicola

2017-04-01

Both at the worldwide level and in Slovenia, precipitation and related phenomena represent one of the most important triggering factors for the occurrence of slope mass movements. In the past decade, extreme rainfall events with a very high amount of precipitation occurs in a relatively short rainfall period have become increasingly important and more frequent, that causing numerous undesirable consequences. Intense rainstorms cause flash floods and mostly trigger shallow landslides and soil slips. On the other hand, the damage of long lasting rainstorms depends on the region's adaptation and its capacity to store or infiltrate excessive water from the rain. The amount and, consequently, the intensity of daily precipitation that can cause floods in the eastern part of Slovenia is a rather common event for the north-western part of the country. Likewise, the effect of rainfall is very dependent on the prior soil moisture, periods of full soil saturation and the creation of drifts in groundwater levels due to the slow melting of snow, growing period, etc. Landslides could be identified and to some extent also prevent with better knowledge of the relation between landslides and rainfall. In this paper the definition of rainfall thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Slovenia is presented. The thresholds have been calculated by collecting approximately 900 landslide data and the relative rainfall amounts, which have been collected from 41 rain gauges all over the country. The thresholds have been defined by the (1) use of an existing procedure, characterized by a high degree of objectiveness and (2) software that was developed for a test site with very different geological and climatic characteristics (Tuscany, central Italy). Firstly, a single national threshold has been defined, later the country was divided into four zones, on the basis of major the river basins and a single threshold has been calculated for each of them. Validation of the calculated

Rainwater runoff retention on an aged intensive green roof.

Science.gov (United States)

Speak, A F; Rothwell, J J; Lindley, S J; Smith, C L

2013-09-01

Urban areas are characterised by large proportions of impervious surfaces which increases rainwater runoff and the potential for surface water flooding. Increased precipitation is predicted under current climate change projections, which will put further pressure on urban populations and infrastructure. Roof greening can be used within flood mitigation schemes to restore the urban hydrological balance of cities. Intensive green roofs, with their deeper substrates and higher plant biomass, are able to retain greater quantities of runoff, and there is a need for more studies on this less common type of green roof which also investigate the effect of factors such as age and vegetation composition. Runoff quantities from an aged intensive green roof in Manchester, UK, were analysed for 69 rainfall events, and compared to those on an adjacent paved roof. Average retention was 65.7% on the green roof and 33.6% on the bare roof. A comprehensive soil classification revealed the substrate, a mineral soil, to be in good general condition and also high in organic matter content which can increase the water holding capacity of soils. Large variation in the retention data made the use of predictive regression models unfeasible. This variation arose from complex interactions between Antecedant Dry Weather Period (ADWP), season, monthly weather trends, and rainfall duration, quantity and peak intensity. However, significantly lower retention was seen for high rainfall events, and in autumn, which had above average rainfall. The study period only covers one unusually wet year, so a longer study may uncover relationships to factors which can be applied to intensive roofs elsewhere. Annual rainfall retention for Manchester city centre could be increased by 2.3% by a 10% increase in intensive green roof construction. The results of this study will be of particular interest to practitioners implementing greenspace adaptation in temperate and cool maritime climates. Copyright © 2013

How important is the spatiotemporal structure of a rainfall field when generating a streamflow hydrograph? An investigation using Reverse Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Kretzschmar, Ann; Tych, Wlodek; Beven, Keith; Chappell, Nick

2017-04-01

Flooding is the most widely occurring natural disaster affecting thousands of lives and businesses worldwide each year, and the size and frequency of flood-events are predicted to increase with climate change. The main input-variable for models used in flood prediction is rainfall. Estimating the rainfall input is often based on a sparse network of raingauges, which may or may not be representative of the salient rainfall characteristics responsible for generating of storm-hydrographs. A method based on Reverse Hydrology (Kretzschmar et al 2014 Environ Modell Softw) has been developed and is being tested using the intensively-instrumented Brue catchment (Southwest England) to explore the spatiotemporal structure of the rainfall-field (using 23 rain gauges over the 135.2 km2 basin). We compare how well the rainfall measured at individual gauges, or averaged over the basin, represent the rainfall inferred from the streamflow signal. How important is it to get the detail of the spatiotemporal rainfall structure right? Rainfall is transformed by catchment processes as it moves to streams, so exact duplication of the structure may not be necessary. 'True' rainfall estimated using 23 gauges / 135.2 km2 is likely to be a good estimate of the overall-catchment-rainfall, however, the integration process 'smears' the rainfall patterns in time, i.e. reduces the number of and lengthens rain-events as they travel across the catchment. This may have little impact on the simulation of stream-hydrographs when events are extensive across the catchment (e.g., frontal rainfall events) but may be significant for high-intensity, localised convective events. The Reverse Hydrology approach uses the streamflow record to infer a rainfall sequence with a lower time-resolution than the original input time-series. The inferred rainfall series is, however, able simulate streamflow as well as the observed, high resolution rainfall (Kretzschmar et al 2015 Hydrol Res). Most gauged catchments in

Northward extent of East Asian monsoon covaries with intensity on orbital and millennial timescales

Science.gov (United States)

Goldsmith, Yonaton; Broecker, Wallace S.; Xu, Hai; Polissar, Pratigya J.; deMenocal, Peter B.; Porat, Naomi; Lan, Jianghu; Cheng, Peng; Zhou, Weijian; An, Zhisheng

2017-02-01

The magnitude, rate, and extent of past and future East Asian monsoon (EAM) rainfall fluctuations remain unresolved. Here, late Pleistocene-Holocene EAM rainfall intensity is reconstructed using a well-dated northeastern China closed-basin lake area record located at the modern northwestern fringe of the EAM. The EAM intensity and northern extent alternated rapidly between wet and dry periods on time scales of centuries. Lake levels were 60 m higher than present during the early and middle Holocene, requiring a twofold increase in annual rainfall, which, based on modern rainfall distribution, requires a ˜400 km northward expansion/migration of the EAM. The lake record is highly correlated with both northern and southern Chinese cave deposit isotope records, supporting rainfall “intensity based” interpretations of these deposits as opposed to an alternative “water vapor sourcing” interpretation. These results indicate that EAM intensity and the northward extent covary on orbital and millennial timescales. The termination of wet conditions at 5.5 ka BP (˜35 m lake drop) triggered a large cultural collapse of Early Neolithic cultures in north China, and possibly promoted the emergence of complex societies of the Late Neolithic.

Northward extent of East Asian monsoon covaries with intensity on orbital and millennial timescales.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldsmith, Yonaton; Broecker, Wallace S; Xu, Hai; Polissar, Pratigya J; deMenocal, Peter B; Porat, Naomi; Lan, Jianghu; Cheng, Peng; Zhou, Weijian; An, Zhisheng

2017-02-21

The magnitude, rate, and extent of past and future East Asian monsoon (EAM) rainfall fluctuations remain unresolved. Here, late Pleistocene-Holocene EAM rainfall intensity is reconstructed using a well-dated northeastern China closed-basin lake area record located at the modern northwestern fringe of the EAM. The EAM intensity and northern extent alternated rapidly between wet and dry periods on time scales of centuries. Lake levels were 60 m higher than present during the early and middle Holocene, requiring a twofold increase in annual rainfall, which, based on modern rainfall distribution, requires a ∼400 km northward expansion/migration of the EAM. The lake record is highly correlated with both northern and southern Chinese cave deposit isotope records, supporting rainfall "intensity based" interpretations of these deposits as opposed to an alternative "water vapor sourcing" interpretation. These results indicate that EAM intensity and the northward extent covary on orbital and millennial timescales. The termination of wet conditions at 5.5 ka BP (∼35 m lake drop) triggered a large cultural collapse of Early Neolithic cultures in north China, and possibly promoted the emergence of complex societies of the Late Neolithic.

Producing Daily and Embedded Hourly Rainfall Data Using a Novel Weather Generator

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Ching-Pin Tung

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The number of worldwide extreme drought and flood events has risen significantly in recent years. Many studies confer that climate change may cause more intensive and extreme events. Simulating the impact of climate change often requires weather data as inputs to assessment models. Stochastic weather generators have been developed to produce weather data with the same temporal resolution based on the outputs of GCMs. Reservoir simulation normally uses operational rules in daily and hourly time steps for water supply and flood reduction, respectively. Simulating consecutive drought and flood events simultaneously requires a weather generator to produce different temporal resolution data. This work develops a continuous weather generator to generate daily and hourly precipitation data for regular wet days and severe storms, respectively. Daily rainfall data is generated for regular wet days using Exponential distribution or Weibull distribution, while the total rainfall data for severe storms is generated using the Pearson type III or Log Pearson type III distribution. Moreover, hourly rainfall is determined based on generated hyetographs. Simulation results indicate that the proposed continuous weather generator can generate daily and hourly rainfall reasonably. The proposed weather generator is thus highly promising for use in evaluating how climate change impacts reservoir operations that are significantly influenced by more frequent and intensive consecutive drought and flood events.

Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models

Science.gov (United States)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Zhou, Wen

2018-05-01

Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976-2005, future changes (2070-2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future.

How is rainfall interception in urban area affected by meteorological parameters?

Science.gov (United States)

Zabret, Katarina; Rakovec, Jože; Mikoš, Matjaž; Šraj, Mojca

2017-04-01

Rainfall interception is part of the hydrological cycle. Precipitation, which hits vegetation, is retained on the leaves and branches, from which it eventually evaporates into the atmosphere (interception) or reaches the ground by dripping from the canopy, falling through the gaps (throughfall) and running down the stems (stemflow). The amount of rainfall reaching the ground depends on various meteorological and vegetation parameters. Rainfall, throughfall and stemflow have been measured in the city of Ljubljana, Slovenia since the beginning of 2014. Manual and automatic measurements are performed regularly under Betula pendula and Pinus nigra trees in urban area. In 2014, there were detected 178 rainfall events with total amount of 1672.1 mm. In average B. pendula intercepted 44% of rainfall and P. nigra intercepted 72% of rainfall. In 2015 we have detected 117 events with 1047.4 mm of rainfall, of which 37% was intercepted by B. pendula and 60% by P. nigra. The effect of various meteorological parameters on the rainfall interception was analysed in the study. The parameters included in the analysis were rainfall rate, rainfall duration, drop size distribution (average drop velocity and diameter), average wind speed, and average temperature. The results demonstrate decreasing rainfall interception with longer rainfall duration and higher rainfall intensity although the impact of the latter one is not statistically significant. In the case of very fast or very slow rainfall drops, the interception is higher than for the mean rain drop velocity values. In the case of P. nigra the impact of the rain drop diameter on interception is similar to the one of rain drop velocity while for B. pendula increasing of drop diameter also increases the interception. As expected, interception is higher for warmer events. This trend is more evident for P. nigra than for B. pendula. Furthermore, the amount of intercepted rainfall also increases with wind although it could be

Synergistic effects of seasonal rainfall, parasites and demography on fluctuations in springbok body condition

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Wendy C.; Versfeld, Wilferd D.; Kilian, J. Werner; Getz, Wayne M.

2011-01-01

Summary 1. Seasonality of rainfall can exert a strong influence on animal condition and on host-parasite interactions. The body condition of ruminants fluctuates seasonally in response to changes in energy requirements, foraging patterns and resource availability, and seasonal variation in parasite infections may further alter ruminant body condition. 2. This study disentangles effects of rainfall and gastrointestinal parasite infections on springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis) body condition and determines how these factors vary among demographic groups. 3. Using data from four years and three study areas, we investigated i) the influence of rainfall variation, demographic factors and parasite interactions on parasite prevalence or infection intensity, ii) whether parasitism or rainfall is a more important predictor of springbok body condition and iii) how parasitism and condition vary among study areas along a rainfall gradient. 4. We found that increased parasite intensity is associated with reduced body condition only for adult females. For all other demographic groups, body condition was significantly related to prior rainfall and not to parasitism. Rainfall lagged by two months had a positive effect on body condition. 5. Adult females showed evidence of a “periparturient rise” in parasite intensity, and had higher parasite intensity and lower body condition than adult males after parturition and during early lactation. After juveniles were weaned, adult females had lower parasite intensity than adult males. Sex differences in parasitism and condition may be due to differences between adult females and males in the seasonal timing of reproductive effort and its effects on host immunity, as well as documented sex differences in vulnerability to predation. 6. Our results highlight that parasites and the environment can synergistically affect host populations, but that these interactions might be masked by their interwoven relationships, their differential

Incident rainfall in Rome and its relation to biodeterioration of buildings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caneva, G; Gori, E; Danin, A [Instituto Centrale per il Restauro, Rome (Italy)

1992-06-01

A discussion is presented of the intensity and distribution of incident rainfall in Rome, and the degree of lithobiont cover of building walls. During all seasons the rainfall shows a significant peak in the south and the southeast exposures, where the highest cover of lithobionts is found. The results show the role of incident rainfall in the climatic conditions of Rome as the main driving factor for the growth of lithobionts on walls where rainfall is their principal source of water. 31 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

Regional frequency analysis of short duration rainfall extremes using gridded daily rainfall data as co-variate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, H.; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Rosbjerg, Dan

2017-01-01

with daily measurements. The Poisson rate is positively correlated to the mean annual precipitation for all durations considered (1 min to 48 hours). The mean intensity can be assumed constant over Denmark for durations up to 1 hour. For durations larger than 1 hour the mean intensity is significantly...... correlated to the mean extreme daily precipitation. A Generalised Pareto distribution with a regional constant shape parameter is adopted. Compared to previous regional studies in Denmark a general increase in extreme rainfall intensity for durations up to 1 hour is found, whereas for larger durations both...

Effect of Erosion on Productivity in Subtropical Red Soil Hilly Region: A Multi-Scale Spatio-Temporal Study by Simulated Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhongwu; Huang, Jinquan; Zeng, Guangming; Nie, Xiaodong; Ma, Wenming; Yu, Wei; Guo, Wang; Zhang, Jiachao

2013-01-01

The effects of water erosion (including long-term historical erosion and single erosion event) on soil properties and productivity in different farming systems were investigated. A typical sloping cropland with homogeneous soil properties was designed in 2009 and then protected from other external disturbances except natural water erosion. In 2012, this cropland was divided in three equally sized blocks. Three treatments were performed on these blocks with different simulated rainfall intensities and farming methods: (1) high rainfall intensity (1.5 - 1.7 mm min−1), no-tillage operation; (2) low rainfall intensity (0.5 - 0.7 mm min−1), no-tillage operation; and (3) low rainfall intensity, tillage operation. All of the blocks were divided in five equally sized subplots along the slope to characterize the three-year effects of historical erosion quantitatively. Redundancy analysis showed that the effects of long-term historical erosion significantly caused most of the variations in soil productivity in no-tillage and low rainfall erosion intensity systems. The intensities of the simulated rainfall did not exhibit significant effects on soil productivity in no-tillage systems. By contrast, different farming operations induced a statistical difference in soil productivity at the same single erosion intensity. Soil organic carbon (SOC) was the major limiting variable that influenced soil productivity. Most explanations of long-term historical erosion for the variation in soil productivity arose from its sharing with SOC. SOC, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus were found as the regressors of soil productivity because of tillage operation. In general, this study provided strong evidence that single erosion event could also impose significant constraints on soil productivity by integrating with tillage operation, although single erosion is not the dominant effect relative to the long-term historical erosion. Our study demonstrated that an effective management of

Significant Features of Warm Season Water Vapor Flux Related to Heavy Rainfall and Draught in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Nishiyama, Koji; Iseri, Yoshihiko; Jinno, Kenji

2009-11-01

In this study, our objective is to reveal complicated relationships between spatial water vapor inflow patterns and heavy rainfall activities in Kyushu located in the western part of Japan, using the outcomes of pattern recognition of water vapor inflow, based on the Self-Organizing Map. Consequently, it could be confirmed that water vapor inflow patterns control the distribution and the frequency of heavy rainfall depending on the direction of their fluxes and the intensity of Precipitable water. Historically serious flood disasters in South Kyushu in 1993 were characterized by high frequency of the water vapor inflow patterns linking to heavy rainfall. On the other hand, severe draught in 1994 was characterized by inactive frontal activity that do not related to heavy rainfall.

Climatology and Interannual Variability of Quasi-Global Intense Precipitation Using Satellite Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Ricko, Martina; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.

2016-01-01

Climatology and variations of recent mean and intense precipitation over a near-global (50 deg. S 50 deg. N) domain on a monthly and annual time scale are analyzed. Data used to derive daily precipitation to examine the effects of spatial and temporal coverage of intense precipitation are from the current Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 version 7 precipitation product, with high spatial and temporal resolution during 1998 - 2013. Intense precipitation is defined by several different parameters, such as a 95th percentile threshold of daily precipitation, a mean precipitation that exceeds that percentile, or a fixed threshold of daily precipitation value [e.g., 25 and 50 mm day(exp -1)]. All parameters are used to identify the main characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of intense precipitation. High correlations between examined parameters are observed, especially between climatological monthly mean precipitation and intense precipitation, over both tropical land and ocean. Among the various parameters examined, the one best characterizing intense rainfall is a fraction of daily precipitation Great than or equal to 25 mm day(exp. -1), defined as a ratio between the intense precipitation above the used threshold and mean precipitation. Regions that experience an increase in mean precipitation likely experience a similar increase in intense precipitation, especially during the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Improved knowledge of this intense precipitation regime and its strong connection to mean precipitation given by the fraction parameter can be used for monitoring of intense rainfall and its intensity on a global to regional scale.

Stochastic bias-correction of daily rainfall scenarios for hydrological applications

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I. Portoghese

2011-09-01

Full Text Available The accuracy of rainfall predictions provided by climate models is crucial for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes. In fact, the presence of bias in downscaled precipitation may produce large bias in the assessment of soil moisture dynamics, river flows and groundwater recharge.

In this study, a comparison between statistical properties of rainfall observations and model control simulations from a Regional Climate Model (RCM was performed through a robust and meaningful representation of the precipitation process. The output of the adopted RCM was analysed and re-scaled exploiting the structure of a stochastic model of the point rainfall process. In particular, the stochastic model is able to adequately reproduce the rainfall intermittency at the synoptic scale, which is one of the crucial aspects for the Mediterranean environments. Possible alteration in the local rainfall regime was investigated by means of the historical daily time-series from a dense rain-gauge network, which were also used for the analysis of the RCM bias in terms of dry and wet periods and storm intensity. The result is a stochastic scheme for bias-correction at the RCM-cell scale, which produces a realistic representation of the daily rainfall intermittency and precipitation depths, though a residual bias in the storm intensity of longer storm events persists.

Unusual rainfall shift during monsoon period of 2010 in Pakistan ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Floods due to “blocking event” in the jet stream during 2010 caused intense rainfall and flash floods in northern Pakistan which resulted to riverine flooding in southern Pakistan. In the beginning of July 2010, changes in summer monsoon rainfall patterns caused the most severe flooding in Pakistan history. Process control ...

Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy

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M. T. Brunetti

2010-03-01

Full Text Available In Italy, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides that frequently cause fatalities and large economic damage. Using a variety of information sources, we have compiled a catalogue listing 753 rainfall events that have resulted in landslides in Italy. For each event in the catalogue, the exact or approximate location of the landslide and the time or period of initiation of the slope failure is known, together with information on the rainfall duration D, and the rainfall mean intensity I, that have resulted in the slope failure. The catalogue represents the single largest collection of information on rainfall-induced landslides in Italy, and was exploited to determine the minimum rainfall conditions necessary for landslide occurrence in Italy, and in the Abruzzo Region, central Italy. For the purpose, new national rainfall thresholds for Italy and new regional rainfall thresholds for the Abruzzo Region were established, using two independent statistical methods, including a Bayesian inference method and a new Frequentist approach. The two methods proved complementary, with the Bayesian method more suited to analyze small data sets, and the Frequentist method performing better when applied to large data sets. The new regional thresholds for the Abruzzo Region are lower than the new national thresholds for Italy, and lower than the regional thresholds proposed in the literature for the Piedmont and Lombardy Regions in northern Italy, and for the Campania Region in southern Italy. This is important, because it shows that landslides in Italy can be triggered by less severe rainfall conditions than previously recognized. The Frequentist method experimented in this work allows for the definition of multiple minimum rainfall thresholds, each based on a different exceedance probability level. This makes the thresholds suited for the design of probabilistic schemes for the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides. A scheme based on four

Multifractal analysis of radar rainfall fields over the area of Rome

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G. Calenda

2005-01-01

Full Text Available A scale-invariance analysis of space and time rainfall events monitored by meteorological radar over the area of Rome (Italy is proposed. The study of the scale-invariance properties of intense precipitation storms, particularly important in flood forecast and risk mitigation, allows to transfer rainfall information from the large scale predictive meteorological models to the small scale hydrological rainfall-runoff models. Precipitation events are monitored using data collected by the polarimetric Doppler radar Polar 55C (ISAC-CNR, located 15 km Southeast from downtown. The meteorological radar provides the estimates of rainfall intensity over an area of about 10 000 km2 at a resolution of 2×2 km2 in space and 5 min in time. Many precipitation events have been observed from autumn 2001 up to now. A scale-invariance analysis is performed on some of these events with the aim at exploring the multifractal properties and at understanding their dependence on the meteorological large-scale conditions.

The evaluation of rainfall influence on combined sewer overflows characteristics: the Berlin case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandoval, S; Torres, A; Pawlowsky-Reusing, E; Riechel, M; Caradot, N

2013-01-01

The present study aims to explore the relationship between rainfall variables and water quality/quantity characteristics of combined sewer overflows (CSOs), by the use of multivariate statistical methods and online measurements at a principal CSO outlet in Berlin (Germany). Canonical correlation results showed that the maximum and average rainfall intensities are the most influential variables to describe CSO water quantity and pollutant loads whereas the duration of the rainfall event and the rain depth seem to be the most influential variables to describe CSO pollutant concentrations. The analysis of partial least squares (PLS) regression models confirms the findings of the canonical correlation and highlights three main influences of rainfall on CSO characteristics: (i) CSO water quantity characteristics are mainly influenced by the maximal rainfall intensities, (ii) CSO pollutant concentrations were found to be mostly associated with duration of the rainfall and (iii) pollutant loads seemed to be principally influenced by dry weather duration before the rainfall event. The prediction quality of PLS models is rather low (R² < 0.6) but results can be useful to explore qualitatively the influence of rainfall on CSO characteristics.

Engineering of an Extreme Rainfall Detection System using Grid Computing

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Olivier Terzo

2012-10-01

Full Text Available This paper describes a new approach for intensive rainfall data analysis. ITHACA's Extreme Rainfall Detection System (ERDS is conceived to provide near real-time alerts related to potential exceptional rainfalls worldwide, which can be used by WFP or other humanitarian assistance organizations to evaluate the event and understand the potentially floodable areas where their assistance is needed. This system is based on precipitation analysis and it uses rainfall data from satellite at worldwide extent. This project uses the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis dataset, a NASA-delivered near real-time product for current rainfall condition monitoring over the world. Considering the great deal of data to process, this paper presents an architectural solution based on Grid Computing techniques. Our focus is on the advantages of using a distributed architecture in terms of performances for this specific purpose.

A simulation of rainfall infiltration based on two-phase flow

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jun; Xi, Niannian; Liu, Gang; Hao, Shuang

2016-04-01

Rainfall infiltration in slope usually is one of major reasons cause landslide, which involves multiphase flow coupling with soil, water and gas. In order to study the mechanism of landslide caused by rainfall infiltration, a simulation of rainfall infiltration of DaPing slope, which locates in the Three Gorges Region of China, is presented based on the numerical solution of governing equations of two-phase flow in this paper. The results of this research suggest that there are two sections can be divided in the surface of slope, one is inflow area and the other is overflow area, according to where it is infiltration and discharge. The general inflow area is on the upside of slope, while the overflow area is on the underside. The middle section of slope is on a fluctuant position between inflow and overflow area, which is dramatically affected by the water content inside of slope. Moreover, the average rate of infiltration is more stable in both inflow and overflow area, whose numerical value is depend on the geometry and transmission characteristics of slope. And the factors of rainfall characteristics, surface flow and temperature have little effect on them. Furthermore, in the inflow area, when rainfall intensity is higher than infiltration the rain on the surface of slope will run off, otherwise water and gas will completely infiltrate through soil. The situation is different in the overflow area whose overland flow condition is depended on whether it is saturated or not inside of slope. When it is saturated in the slope, there is no infiltration in the overflow area. But when it is unsaturated, the infiltration intensity will equal to rainfall intensity. In a summary, the difference from inflow and overflow area is the evidence that the landslide may likely to happen on the slope of overflow area when it comes to a rainfall. It is disadvantageous for slope stability when transmitting the pressure of saturated water weight at the top of slope through the pore

The cross wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis of spatio-temporal rainfall-groundwater system in Pingtung plain, Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yuan-Chien; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2013-04-01

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events has been observed recently in Taiwan. Particularly, Typhoon Morakot, Typhoon Fanapi, and Typhoon Megi consecutively brought record-breaking intensity and magnitude of rainfalls to different locations of Taiwan in these two years. However, records show the extreme rainfall events did not elevate the amount of annual rainfall accordingly. Conversely, the increasing frequency of droughts has also been occurring in Taiwan. The challenges have been confronted by governmental agencies and scientific communities to come up with effective adaptation strategies for natural disaster reduction and sustainable environment establishment. Groundwater has long been a reliable water source for a variety of domestic, agricultural, and industrial uses because of its stable quantity and quality. In Taiwan, groundwater accounts for the largest proportion of all water resources for about 40%. This study plans to identify and quantify the nonlinear relationship between precipitation and groundwater recharge, find the non-stationary time-frequency relations between the variations of rainfall and groundwater levels to understand the phase difference of time series. Groundwater level data and over-50-years hourly rainfall records obtained from 20 weather stations in Pingtung Plain, Taiwan has been collected. Extract the space-time pattern by EOF method, which is a decomposition of a signal or data set in terms of orthogonal basis functions determined from the data for both time series and spatial patterns, to identify the important spatial pattern of groundwater recharge and using cross wavelet and wavelet coherence method to identify the relationship between rainfall and groundwater levels. Results show that EOF method can specify the spatial-temporal patterns which represents certain geological characteristics and other mechanisms of groundwater, and the wavelet coherence method can identify general correlation between

A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Daniel B.; Mantilla, Ricardo; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2018-01-01

RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, RainyDay can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, RainyDay can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. RainyDay can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions. PMID:29657544

Properties of Extreme Point Rainfall I

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harremoës, Poul; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

1995-01-01

Extreme rainfall has been recorded by the larger municipalities in Denmark since 1933. National intensity-duration-frequency curves were produced on this basis for engineering application in the whole of Denmark. In 1979, on the initiative of The Danish Water Pollution Control Committee under...

Hydrometeorological and statistical analyses of heavy rainfall in Midwestern USA

Science.gov (United States)

Thorndahl, S.; Smith, J. A.; Krajewski, W. F.

2012-04-01

During the last two decades the mid-western states of the United States of America has been largely afflicted by heavy flood producing rainfall. Several of these storms seem to have similar hydrometeorological properties in terms of pattern, track, evolution, life cycle, clustering, etc. which raise the question if it is possible to derive general characteristics of the space-time structures of these heavy storms. This is important in order to understand hydrometeorological features, e.g. how storms evolve and with what frequency we can expect extreme storms to occur. In the literature, most studies of extreme rainfall are based on point measurements (rain gauges). However, with high resolution and quality radar observation periods exceeding more than two decades, it is possible to do long-term spatio-temporal statistical analyses of extremes. This makes it possible to link return periods to distributed rainfall estimates and to study precipitation structures which cause floods. However, doing these statistical frequency analyses of rainfall based on radar observations introduces some different challenges, converting radar reflectivity observations to "true" rainfall, which are not problematic doing traditional analyses on rain gauge data. It is for example difficult to distinguish reflectivity from high intensity rain from reflectivity from other hydrometeors such as hail, especially using single polarization radars which are used in this study. Furthermore, reflectivity from bright band (melting layer) should be discarded and anomalous propagation should be corrected in order to produce valid statistics of extreme radar rainfall. Other challenges include combining observations from several radars to one mosaic, bias correction against rain gauges, range correction, ZR-relationships, etc. The present study analyzes radar rainfall observations from 1996 to 2011 based the American NEXRAD network of radars over an area covering parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and

Decadal features of heavy rainfall events in eastern China

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Huopo; Sun, Jianqi; Fan, Ke

2012-06-01

Based on daily precipitation data, the spatial-temporal features of heavy rainfall events (HREs) during 1960-2009 are investigated. The results indicate that the HREs experienced strong decadal variability in the past 50 years, and the decadal features varied across regions. More HRE days are observed in the 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s over Northeast China (NEC); in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1990s over North China (NC); in the early 1960s, 1980s, and 2000s over the Huaihe River basin (HR); in the 1970s-1990s over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YR); and in the 1970s and 1990s over South China (SC). These decadal changes of HRE days in eastern China are closely associated with the decadal variations of water content and stratification stability of the local atmosphere. The intensity of HREs in each sub-region is also characterized by strong decadal variability. The HRE intensity and frequency co-vary on the long-term trend, and show consistent variability over NEC, NC, and YR, but inconsistent variability over SC and HR. Further analysis of the relationships between the annual rainfall and HRE frequency as well as intensity indicates that the HRE frequency is the major contributor to the total rainfall variability in eastern China, while the HRE intensity shows only relative weak contribution.

Topographic Correction of Wind-driven Rainfall for Landslide Analysis in Central Taiwan with Validation from Aerial and Satellite Optical Images

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Jin-King Liu

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Rainfall intensity plays an important role in landslide prediction especially in mountain areas. However, the rainfall intensity of a location is usually interpolated from rainfall recorded at nearby gauges without considering any possible effects of topographic slopes. In order to obtain reliable rainfall intensity for disaster mitigation, this study proposes a rainfall-vector projection method for topographic-corrected rainfall. The topographic-corrected rainfall is derived from wind speed, terminal velocity of raindrops, and topographical factors from digital terrain model. In addition, scatter plot was used to present landslide distribution with two triggering factors and kernel density analysis is adopted to enhance the perception of the distribution. Numerical analysis is conducted for a historic event, typhoon Mindulle, which occurred in 2004, in a location in central Taiwan. The largest correction reaches 11%, which indicates that topographic correction is significant. The corrected rainfall distribution is then applied to the analysis of landslide triggering factors. The result with corrected rainfall distribution provides better agreement with the actual landslide occurrence than the result without correction.

Changes in precipitation frequency and intensity in the vicinity of Taiwan: typhoon versus non-typhoon events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tu, Jien-Yi; Chou Chia

2013-01-01

The hourly rainfall at 21 ground stations in Taiwan is used to investigate changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of rainfall, which can be divided into typhoon and non-typhoon rainfall, in the period of 1970–2010. As a whole, the frequency of rainfall shows a decreasing trend for lighter rain and an increasing trend for heavier rain. Also, the typhoon rainfall shows a significant increase for all intensities, while the non-typhoon rainfall exhibits a general trend of decreasing, particularly for lighter rain. In rainfall intensity, both typhoon and non-typhoon rainfall extremes become more intense, with an increased rate much greater than the Clausius–Clapeyron thermal scaling. Moreover, rainfall extremes associated with typhoons have tended to affect Taiwan rainfall for longer in recent decades. The more frequent, intense and long-lasting typhoon rainfall is mainly induced by the slower translation speed of the typhoons over the neighborhood of Taiwan, which could be associated with a weakening of steering flow in the western North Pacific and the northern South China Sea. (letter)

Enhancement of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks on the Australian summer monsoon by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Notaro, Michael

2018-01-01

A regional climate modeling analysis of the Australian monsoon system reveals a substantial modulation of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), both of which operate at similar sub-seasonal time scales, as evidence that the intensity of land-atmosphere interactions is sensitive to the background atmospheric state. Based on ensemble experiments with imposed modification of northern Australian leaf area index (LAI), the atmospheric responses to LAI anomalies are composited for negative and positive modes of the propagating MJO. In the regional climate model (RCM), northern Australian vegetation feedbacks are characterized by evapotranspiration (ET)-driven rainfall responses, with the moisture feedback mechanism dominating over albedo and roughness feedback mechanisms. During November-April, both Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and RCM data reveal MJO's pronounced influence on rainfall patterns across northern Australia, tropical Indian Ocean, Timor Sea, Arafura Sea, and Gulf of Carpentaria, with the MJO dominating over vegetation feedbacks in terms of regulating monsoon rainfall variability. Convectively-active MJO phases support an enhancement of positive vegetation feedbacks on monsoon rainfall. While the MJO imposes minimal regulation of ET responses to LAI anomalies, the vegetation feedback-induced responses in precipitable water, cloud water, and rainfall are greatly enhanced during convectively-active MJO phases over northern Australia, which are characterized by intense low-level convergence and efficient precipitable water conversion. The sub-seasonal response of vegetation-rainfall feedback intensity to the MJO is complex, with significant enhancement of rainfall responses to LAI anomalies in February during convectively-active MJO phases compared to minimal modulation by the MJO during prior and subsequent calendar months.

Throughfall and temporal trends of rainfall redistribution in an open tropical rainforest, south-western Amazonia (Rondônia, Brazil

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S. Germer

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Throughfall volumes and incident rainfall were measured between 23 August and 2 December 2004 as well as from 6 January to 15 April 2005 for individual rain events of differing intensities and magnitudes in an open tropical rainforest in Rondônia, Brazil. Temporal patterns of throughfall spatial variability were examined. Estimated interception was compared to modeled interception obtained by applying the revised Gash model in order to identify sources of throughfall variability in open tropical rainforests. Gross precipitation of 97 events amounted to 1309 mm, 89±5.6% (S.E. of which reached the forest floor as throughfall. The redistribution of water within the canopy was highly variable in time, which we attribute to the high density of babassu palms (Orbignya phalerata, their seasonal leaf growth, and their conducive morphology. We identified a 10-min rainfall intensity threshold of 30 mmh-1 above which interception was highly variable. This variability is amplified by funneling and shading effects of palms. This interaction between a rainfall variable and vegetation characteristics is relevant for understanding the hydrology of all tropical rainforests with a high palm density.

Deterministic Approach for Estimating Critical Rainfall Threshold of Rainfall-induced Landslide in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Ming-Chien; Tan, Chih-Hao; Chen, Mien-Min; Su, Tai-Wei

2013-04-01

Taiwan is an active mountain belt created by the oblique collision between the northern Luzon arc and the Asian continental margin. The inherent complexities of geological nature create numerous discontinuities through rock masses and relatively steep hillside on the island. In recent years, the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme natural events due to global warming or climate change brought significant landslides. The causes of landslides in these slopes are attributed to a number of factors. As is well known, rainfall is one of the most significant triggering factors for landslide occurrence. In general, the rainfall infiltration results in changing the suction and the moisture of soil, raising the unit weight of soil, and reducing the shear strength of soil in the colluvium of landslide. The stability of landslide is closely related to the groundwater pressure in response to rainfall infiltration, the geological and topographical conditions, and the physical and mechanical parameters. To assess the potential susceptibility to landslide, an effective modeling of rainfall-induced landslide is essential. In this paper, a deterministic approach is adopted to estimate the critical rainfall threshold of the rainfall-induced landslide. The critical rainfall threshold is defined as the accumulated rainfall while the safety factor of the slope is equal to 1.0. First, the process of deterministic approach establishes the hydrogeological conceptual model of the slope based on a series of in-situ investigations, including geological drilling, surface geological investigation, geophysical investigation, and borehole explorations. The material strength and hydraulic properties of the model were given by the field and laboratory tests. Second, the hydraulic and mechanical parameters of the model are calibrated with the long-term monitoring data. Furthermore, a two-dimensional numerical program, GeoStudio, was employed to perform the modelling practice. Finally

Regions Subject to Rainfall Oscillation in the 5–10 Year Band

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Jean-Louis Pinault

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The decadal oscillation of rainfall in Europe that has been observed since the end of the 20th century is a phenomenon well known to climatologists. Consequences are considerable because the succession of wet or dry years produces floods or, inversely, droughts. Moreover, much research has tried to answer the question about the possible link between the frequency and the intensity of extra-tropical cyclones, which are particularly devastating, and global warming. This work aims at providing an exhaustive description of the rainfall oscillation in the 5–10 year band during one century on a planetary scale. It is shown that the rainfall oscillation results from baroclinic instabilities over the oceans. For that, a joint analysis of the amplitude and the phase of sea surface temperature anomalies and rainfall anomalies is performed, which discloses the mechanisms leading to the alternation of high and low atmospheric pressure systems. For a prospective purpose, some milestones are suggested on a possible link with very long-period Rossby waves in the oceans.

Erosivity of rainfall in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil

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Jefferson Schick

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The erosive capacity of rainfall can be expressed by an index and knowing it allows recommendation of soil management and conservation practices to reduce water erosion. The objective of this study was to calculate various indices of rainfall erosivity in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil, identify the best one, and discover its temporal distribution. The study was conducted at the Center of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Lages, Santa Catarina, using daily rainfall charts from 1989 to 2012. Using the computer program Chuveros , 107 erosivity indices were obtained, which were based on maximum intensity in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 135, 150, 165, 180, 210, and 240 min of duration and on the combination of these intensities with the kinetic energy obtained by the equations of Brown & Foster, Wagner & Massambani, and Wischmeier & Smith. The indices of the time period from 1993 to 2012 were correlated with the respective soil losses from the standard plot of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE in order to select the erosivity index for the region. Erosive rainfall accounted for 83 % of the mean annual total volume of 1,533 mm. The erosivity index (R factor of rainfall recommended for Lages is the EI30, whose mean annual value is 5,033 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, and of this value, 66 % occurs from September to February. Mean annual erosivity has a return period estimated at two years with a 50 % probability of occurrence.

Impacts of the seasonal distribution of rainfall on vegetation productivity across the Sahel

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wenmin; Brandt, Martin; Tong, Xiaoye; Tian, Qingjiu; Fensholt, Rasmus

2018-01-01

Climate change in drylands has caused alterations in the seasonal distribution of rainfall including increased heavy-rainfall events, longer dry spells, and a shifted timing of the wet season. Yet the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in drylands is usually explained by annual-rainfall sums, disregarding the influence of the seasonal distribution of rainfall. This study tested the importance of rainfall metrics in the wet season (onset and cessation of the wet season, number of rainy days, rainfall intensity, number of consecutive dry days, and heavy-rainfall events) for growing season ANPP. We focused on the Sahel and northern Sudanian region (100-800 mm yr-1) and applied daily satellite-based rainfall estimates (CHIRPS v2.0) and growing-season-integrated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; MODIS) as a proxy for ANPP over the study period: 2001-2015. Growing season ANPP in the arid zone (100-300 mm yr-1) was found to be rather insensitive to variations in the seasonal-rainfall metrics, whereas vegetation in the semi-arid zone (300-700 mm yr-1) was significantly impacted by most metrics, especially by the number of rainy days and timing (onset and cessation) of the wet season. We analysed critical breakpoints for all metrics to test if vegetation response to changes in a given rainfall metric surpasses a threshold beyond which vegetation functioning is significantly altered. It was shown that growing season ANPP was particularly negatively impacted after > 14 consecutive dry days and that a rainfall intensity of ˜ 13 mm day-1 was detected for optimum growing season ANPP. We conclude that the number of rainy days and the timing of the wet season are seasonal-rainfall metrics that are decisive for favourable vegetation growth in the semi-arid Sahel and need to be considered when modelling primary productivity from rainfall in the drylands of the Sahel and elsewhere.

RAINLINK: Retrieval algorithm for rainfall monitoring employing microwave links from a cellular communication network

Science.gov (United States)

Uijlenhoet, R.; Overeem, A.; Leijnse, H.; Rios Gaona, M. F.

2017-12-01

The basic principle of rainfall estimation using microwave links is as follows. Rainfall attenuates the electromagnetic signals transmitted from one telephone tower to another. By measuring the received power at one end of a microwave link as a function of time, the path-integrated attenuation due to rainfall can be calculated, which can be converted to average rainfall intensities over the length of a link. Microwave links from cellular communication networks have been proposed as a promising new rainfall measurement technique for one decade. They are particularly interesting for those countries where few surface rainfall observations are available. Yet to date no operational (real-time) link-based rainfall products are available. To advance the process towards operational application and upscaling of this technique, there is a need for freely available, user-friendly computer code for microwave link data processing and rainfall mapping. Such software is now available as R package "RAINLINK" on GitHub (https://github.com/overeem11/RAINLINK). It contains a working example to compute link-based 15-min rainfall maps for the entire surface area of The Netherlands for 40 hours from real microwave link data. This is a working example using actual data from an extensive network of commercial microwave links, for the first time, which will allow users to test their own algorithms and compare their results with ours. The package consists of modular functions, which facilitates running only part of the algorithm. The main processings steps are: 1) Preprocessing of link data (initial quality and consistency checks); 2) Wet-dry classification using link data; 3) Reference signal determination; 4) Removal of outliers ; 5) Correction of received signal powers; 6) Computation of mean path-averaged rainfall intensities; 7) Interpolation of rainfall intensities ; 8) Rainfall map visualisation. Some applications of RAINLINK will be shown based on microwave link data from a

The Soil Moisture Dependence of TRMM Microwave Imager Rainfall Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Seyyedi, H.; Anagnostou, E. N.

2011-12-01

This study presents an in-depth analysis of the dependence of overland rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) on the soil moisture conditions at the land surface. TMI retrievals are verified against rainfall fields derived from a high resolution rain-gauge network (MESONET) covering Oklahoma. Soil moisture (SOM) patterns are extracted based on recorded data from 2000-2007 with 30 minutes temporal resolution. The area is divided into wet and dry regions based on normalized SOM (Nsom) values. Statistical comparison between two groups is conducted based on recorded ground station measurements and the corresponding passive microwave retrievals from TMI overpasses at the respective MESONET station location and time. The zero order error statistics show that the Probability of Detection (POD) for the wet regions (higher Nsom values) is higher than the dry regions. The Falls Alarm Ratio (FAR) and volumetric FAR is lower for the wet regions. The volumetric missed rain for the wet region is lower than dry region. Analysis of the MESONET-to-TMI ratio values shows that TMI tends to overestimate for surface rainfall intensities less than 12 (mm/h), however the magnitude of the overestimation over the wet regions is lower than the dry regions.

[Output characteristics of rainfall runoff phosphorus pollution from a typical small watershed in Yimeng mountainous area].

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Xing-xiu; Li, Zhen-wei; Liu, Qian-jin; Jing, Guang-hua

2012-08-01

Relationships between phosphorus pollutant concentrations and precipitation-runoff were analyzed by monitoring pollutant losses at outlets of the Menglianggu watershed in 2010. A typical small watershed was selected to examine the runoff and quality parameters such as total phosphorus (TP), particle phosphorus (PP), dissolve phosphorus (DP) and dissolve inorganic phosphorus (DIP) in rainfall-runoff of 10 rainfall events. Precipitation was above 2 mm for all the 10 rainfall events. The results showed that the peak of phosphorus concentrations occurred before the peak of water flows, whereas change processes of the phosphorus fluxes were consistent with that of the water flows and the phosphorus flux also have a strong linear relationship with the water flows. The minimums of the phosphorus concentrations in every 10 natural rainfall events have small differences with each other, but the maximum and EMCs of the phosphorus concentrations have significant differences with each rainfall event. This was mainly influenced by the precipitation, maximum rainfall intensity and mean rainfall intensity (EMCs) and was less influenced by rainfall duration. DP and TP were mainly composed of DIP and PP, respectively. There were no significant correlations between DIP/DP dynamic changes and rainfall characteristics, whereas significant correlations between PP/TP dynamic changes and maximum rainfall intensity were detected. The production of DIP, DP, AND TP were mainly influenced by the direct runoff (DR) and base flow (BF). The EMCs of DIP, DP, TP and the variations of DIP/DP were all found to have significant polynomial relationships with DR/TR., but the dynamic changes of PP/ TP and the EMCS of PP were less influenced by the DR/TR.

Changes in Intense Precipitation Events in West Africa and the central U.S. under Global Warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cook, Kerry H. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Vizy, Edward [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

2016-02-08

The purpose of the proposed project is to improve our understanding of the physical processes and large-scale connectivity of changes in intense precipitation events (high rainfall rates) under global warming in West Africa and the central U.S., including relationships with low-frequency modes of variability. This is in response to the requested subject area #2 “simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate … to better quantify the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events under climate change and elucidate the role of low frequency climate variability in modulating extremes.” We will use a regional climate model and emphasize an understanding of the physical processes that lead to an intensification of rainfall. The project objectives are as follows: 1. Understand the processes responsible for simulated changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency over West Africa and the Central U.S. associated with greenhouse gas-induced global warming 2. Understand the relationship between changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency, which generally occur on regional space scales, and the larger-scale global warming signal by considering modifications of low-frequency modes of variability. 3. Relate changes simulated on regional space scales to global-scale theories of how and why atmospheric moisture levels and rainfall should change as climate warms.

Study on the response of unsaturated soil slope based on the effects of rainfall intensity and slope angle

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, Mohd Ashraf Mohamad; Hamzah, Nur Hasliza

2017-07-01

Rainfall has been considered as the major cause of the slope failure. The mechanism leading to slope failures included the infiltration process, surface runoff, volumetric water content and pore-water pressure of the soil. This paper describes a study in which simulated rainfall events were used with 2-dimensional soil column to study the response of unsaturated soil behavior based on different slope angle. The 2-dimensional soil column is used in order to demonstrate the mechanism of the slope failure. These unsaturated soil were tested with four different slope (15°, 25°, 35° and 45°) and subjected to three different rainfall intensities (maximum, mean and minimum). The following key results were obtained: (1) the stability of unsaturated soil decrease as the rainwater infiltrates into the soil. Soil that initially in unsaturated state will start to reach saturated state when rainwater seeps into the soil. Infiltration of rainwater will reduce the matric suction in the soil. Matric suction acts in controlling soil shear strength. Reduction in matric suction affects the decrease in effective normal stress, which in turn diminishes the available shear strength to a point where equilibrium can no longer be sustained in the slope. (2) The infiltration rate of rainwater decreases while surface runoff increase when the soil nearly achieve saturated state. These situations cause the soil erosion and lead to slope failure. (3) The steepness of the soil is not a major factor but also contribute to slope failures. For steep slopes, rainwater that fall on the soil surface will become surface runoff within a short time compare to the water that infiltrate into the soil. While for gentle slopes, water that becomes surface runoff will move slowly and these increase the water that infiltrate into the soil.

An Evaluation of Subseasonal Intensity Variation of the South Asian High in the CMIP5 Models

Science.gov (United States)

Shang, W.; Ren, X.

2017-12-01

The South Asian High (SAH) is a vital member among the Asian summer monsoon circulations in the upper troposphere located over the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas during boreal summer. This study presents an evaluation of the characteristics of SAH's subseasonal intensity variation simulated by 18 coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is used on subseasonal anomalies in 100hPa geopotential height over 20°-40°N, 35°-110°E for June, July and August from 1979 to 2005. The first EOF mode from the ERA-Interim (denoted as observation) shows a monopole pattern capturing the strengthening/weakening of SAH. The power spectrum analysis of the corresponding principal component (PC1) time series shows a period about 10-30 days. In general, all the 18 coupled models can reproduce the monopole pattern and its subseasonal oscillation to a certain extent. The four well-simulated models are: ACCESS1-3, HadGEM2-CC, MRI-CGCM3 and BNU-ESM, which EOF1 show strong positive anomalies in the 100hPa geopotential height over the SAH's region and weak negative anomalies in their north side. Lead-lag regression shows that the evolution of the EOF1 from day -12 to +3 in the above four models is also reasonably simulated. In the observation, positive rainfall band moves northward from the equatorial Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengals and the Western North Pacific to the north of Indian Peninsula, south of Tibetan Plateau and Southeast China, accompanied by the increasing intensity of SAH. In the above four models, the northward movement of anomalous rainfall band can be well reproduced. In the observation, the spatial pattern of anomalies in integrated apparent heat source and integrated apparent moisture sink resemble that of rainfall, thus corresponding to anomalous condensation heat release. The anomalous heating stimulates positive height anomalies with an anomalous anticyclonic circulation to its

Characteristics of aggregation of daily rainfall in a middle-latitudes region during a climate variability in annual rainfall amount

Science.gov (United States)

Lucero, Omar A.; Rozas, Daniel

Climate variability in annual rainfall occurs because the aggregation of daily rainfall changes. A topic open to debate is whether that change takes place because rainfall becomes more intense, or because it rains more often, or a combination of both. The answer to this question is of interest for water resources planning, hydrometeorological design, and agricultural management. Change in the number of rainy days can cause major disruptions in hydrological and ecological systems, with important economic and social effects. Furthermore, the characteristics of daily rainfall aggregation in ongoing climate variability provide a reference to evaluate the capability of GCM to simulate changes in the hydrologic cycle. In this research, we analyze changes in the aggregation of daily rainfall producing a climate positive trend in annual rainfall in central Argentina, in the southern middle-latitudes. This state-of-the-art agricultural region has a semiarid climate with dry and wet seasons. Weather effects in the region influence world-market prices of several crops. Results indicate that the strong positive trend in seasonal and annual rainfall amount is produced by an increase in number of rainy days. This increase takes place in the 3-month periods January-March (summer) and April-June (autumn). These are also the 3-month periods showing a positive trend in the mean of annual rainfall. The mean of the distribution of annual number of rainy day (ANRD) increased in 50% in a 36-year span (starting at 44 days/year). No statistically significant indications on time changes in the probability distribution of daily rainfall amount were found. Non-periodic fluctuations in the time series of annual rainfall were analyzed using an integral wavelet transform. Fluctuations with a time scale of about 10 and 20 years construct the trend in annual rainfall amount. These types of non-periodic fluctuations have been observed in other regions of the world. This suggests that results of

Mechanism of shallow disrupted slide induced by extreme rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Igwe, O.; Fukuoka, H.

2010-12-01

On July 16, 2010, extreme rainfall attacked western Japan and it caused very intense rainfall in Shobara city, Hiroshima prefecture, Japan. This rainfall induced hundreds of shallow disrupted slides and many of those became debris flows. One of this debris flows attacked a house standing in front of the exit of a channel, and claimed a resident’s life. Western Japan had repeatedly similar disasters in the past. Last event took place from July 19 to 26, 2009, when western Japan had a severe rainstorms and caused floods and landslides. Most of the landslides are debris slide - debris flows. Most devastated case took place in Hofu city, Japan. On July 21, extremely intense rainstorm caused numerous debris flows and mud flows in the hillslopes. Some of the debris flows destroyed residential houses and home for elderly people, and finally killed 14 residents. One of the unusual feature of both disaster was that landslides are distributed in very narrow area. In the 2010 Shobara city disaster, all of the landslides were distributed in 5 km x 3 km, and in the 2009 Hofu city disaster, most devastated zone of landslides were 10 km x 5 km. Rain radars of Meteorological Agency of Government of Japan detected the intense rainfall, however, the spatial resolution is usually larger than 5 km and the disaster area is too small to predict landslides nor issue warning. Furthermore, it was found that the growth rate of baby clouds was very quick. The geology of both areas are rhyolite (Shobara) and granite (Hofu), so the areal assessment of landslide hazard should be prepared before those intense rainfall will come. As for the Hofu city case, it was proved that debris flows took place in the high precipitation area and covered by covered by weathered granite sands and silts which is called “masa". This sands has been proved susceptible against landslides under extreme rainfall conditions. However, the transition from slide - debris flow process is not well revealed, except

Abrupt state change of river water quality (turbidity): Effect of extreme rainfalls and typhoons.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Chih-Sheng; Lee, Yi-Chao; Chiang, Hui-Min

2016-07-01

River turbidity is of dynamic nature, and its stable state is significantly changed during the period of heavy rainfall events. The frequent occurrence of typhoons in Taiwan has caused serious problems in drinking water treatment due to extremely high turbidity. The aim of the present study is to evaluate impact of typhoons on river turbidity. The statistical methods used included analyses of paired annual mean and standard deviation, frequency distribution, and moving standard deviation, skewness, and autocorrelation; all clearly indicating significant state changes of river turbidity. Typhoon Morakot of 2009 (recorded high rainfall over 2000mm in three days, responsible for significant disaster in southern Taiwan) is assumed as a major initiated event leading to critical state change. In addition, increasing rate of turbidity in rainfall events is highly and positively correlated with rainfall intensity both for pre- and post-Morakot periods. Daily turbidity is also well correlated with daily flow rate for all the eleven events evaluated. That implies potential prediction of river turbidity by river flow rate during rainfall and typhoon events. Based on analysis of stable state changes, more effective regulations for better basin management including soil-water conservation in watershed are necessary. Furthermore, municipal and industrial water treatment plants need to prepare and ensure the adequate operation of water treatment with high raw water turbidity (e.g., >2000NTU). Finally, methodology used in the present of this study can be applied to other environmental problems with abrupt state changes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High-intensity laser physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohideen, U.

1993-01-01

This thesis is a study of the effect of high intensity lasers on atoms, free electrons and the generation of X-rays from solid density plasmas. The laser produced 50 milli Joule 180 femto sec pulses at 5 Hz. This translates to a maximum intensity of 5 x 10 18 W/cm 2 . At such high fields the AC stark shifts of atoms placed at the focus is much greater than the ionization energy. The characteristics of multiphoton ionization of atoms in intense laser fields was studied by angle resolved photoelectron spectroscopy. Free electrons placed in high intensity laser fields lead to harmonic generation. This phenomenon of Nonlinear Compton Scattering was theoretically investigated. Also, when these high intensity pulses are focused on solids a hot plasma is created. This plasma is a bright source of a short X-ray pulse. The pulse-width of X-rays from these solid density plasmas was measured by time-resolved X-ray spectroscopy

Rainfall Stochastic models

Science.gov (United States)

Campo, M. A.; Lopez, J. J.; Rebole, J. P.

2012-04-01

This work was carried out in north of Spain. San Sebastian A meteorological station, where there are available precipitation records every ten minutes was selected. Precipitation data covers from October of 1927 to September of 1997. Pulse models describe the temporal process of rainfall as a succession of rainy cells, main storm, whose origins are distributed in time according to a Poisson process and a secondary process that generates a random number of cells of rain within each storm. Among different pulse models, the Bartlett-Lewis was used. On the other hand, alternative renewal processes and Markov chains describe the way in which the process will evolve in the future depending only on the current state. Therefore they are nor dependant on past events. Two basic processes are considered when describing the occurrence of rain: the alternation of wet and dry periods and temporal distribution of rainfall in each rain event, which determines the rainwater collected in each of the intervals that make up the rain. This allows the introduction of alternative renewal processes and Markov chains of three states, where interstorm time is given by either of the two dry states, short or long. Thus, the stochastic model of Markov chains tries to reproduce the basis of pulse models: the succession of storms, each one composed for a series of rain, separated by a short interval of time without theoretical complexity of these. In a first step, we analyzed all variables involved in the sequential process of the rain: rain event duration, event duration of non-rain, average rainfall intensity in rain events, and finally, temporal distribution of rainfall within the rain event. Additionally, for pulse Bartlett-Lewis model calibration, main descriptive statistics were calculated for each month, considering the process of seasonal rainfall in each month. In a second step, both models were calibrated. Finally, synthetic series were simulated with calibration parameters; series

Spatial Analysis of High-Resolution Radar Rainfall and Citizen-Reported Flash Flood Data in Ultra-Urban New York City

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brianne Smith

2017-09-01

Full Text Available New York City (NYC is an ultra-urban region, with over 50% impervious cover and buried stream channels. Traditional flood studies rely on the presence of stream gages to detect flood stage and discharge, but these methods cannot be used in ultra-urban areas. Here we create a high-resolution radar rainfall dataset for NYC and utilize citizen and expert reports of flooding throughout the city to study flash flooding in NYC. Results indicate that interactions between the urban area and land–sea boundary have an important impact on the spatial variability of both heavy rainfall and flooding, sometimes in contrast to results obtained for other cities. Top days of daily and hourly rainfall exhibit a rainfall maximum over the city center and an extended region of higher rainfall downwind of the city. The mechanism for flooding appears to vary across the city, with high groundwater tables influencing more coastal areas and high rain rates or large rain volumes influencing more inland areas. There is also a strong relationship between sewer type and flood frequency, with fewer floods observed in combined sewer areas. Flooding is driven by maximum one-hour to one-day rainfall, which is often substantially less rain than observed for the city-wide daily maximum.

Precipitation intensity probability distribution modelling for hydrological and construction design purposes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koshinchanov, Georgy; Dimitrov, Dobri

2008-01-01

The characteristics of rainfall intensity are important for many purposes, including design of sewage and drainage systems, tuning flood warning procedures, etc. Those estimates are usually statistical estimates of the intensity of precipitation realized for certain period of time (e.g. 5, 10 min., etc) with different return period (e.g. 20, 100 years, etc). The traditional approach in evaluating the mentioned precipitation intensities is to process the pluviometer's records and fit probability distribution to samples of intensities valid for certain locations ore regions. Those estimates further become part of the state regulations to be used for various economic activities. Two problems occur using the mentioned approach: 1. Due to various factors the climate conditions are changed and the precipitation intensity estimates need regular update; 2. As far as the extremes of the probability distribution are of particular importance for the practice, the methodology of the distribution fitting needs specific attention to those parts of the distribution. The aim of this paper is to make review of the existing methodologies for processing the intensive rainfalls and to refresh some of the statistical estimates for the studied areas. The methodologies used in Bulgaria for analyzing the intensive rainfalls and produce relevant statistical estimates: - The method of the maximum intensity, used in the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology to process and decode the pluviometer's records, followed by distribution fitting for each precipitation duration period; - As the above, but with separate modeling of probability distribution for the middle and high probability quantiles. - Method is similar to the first one, but with a threshold of 0,36 mm/min of intensity; - Another method proposed by the Russian hydrologist G. A. Aleksiev for regionalization of estimates over some territory, improved and adapted by S. Gerasimov for Bulgaria; - Next method is considering only

Benefits and limitations of using the weather radar for the definition of rainfall thresholds for debris flows. Case study from Catalonia (Spain).

Science.gov (United States)

Abancó, C.; Hürlimann, M.; Sempere, D.; Berenguer, M.

2012-04-01

Torrential processes such as debris flows or hyperconcentrated flows are fast movements formed by a mix of water and different amounts of unsorted solid material. They occur in steep torrents and suppose a high risk for the human settlements. Rainfall is the most common triggering factor for debris flows. The rainfall threshold defines the rainfall conditions that, when reached or exceeded, are likely to provoke one or more events. Many different types of empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide triggering have been defined. Direct measurements of rainfall data are normally not available from a point next to or in the surroundings of the initiation area of the landslide. For this reason, most of the thresholds published for debris flows have been established by data measured at the nearest rain gauges (often located several km far from the landslide). Only in very few cases, the rainfall data to analyse the triggering conditions of the debris flows have been obtained by weather (Doppler) radar. Radar devices present certain limitations in mountainous regions due to undesired reboots, but their main advantage is that radar data can be obtained for any point of the territory. The objective of this work was to test the use of the weather radar data for the definition of rainfall thresholds for debris-flow triggering. Thus, rainfall data obtained from 3 to 5 rain gauges and from radar were compared for a dataset of events occurred in Catalonia (Spain). The goal was to determine in which cases the description of the rainfall episode (in particular the maximum intensity) had been more accurate. The analysed dataset consists of: 1) three events occurred in the Rebaixader debris-flow monitoring station (Axial Pyrenees) including two hyperconcentrated flows and one debris flow; 2) one debris-flow event occurred in the Port Ainé ski resort (Axial Pyrenees); 3) one debris-flow event in Montserrat (Mediterranean Coastal range). The comparison of the hyetographs from the

Using rainfall simulations to understand the relationship between precipitation, soil crust and infiltration in four agricultural soils

Science.gov (United States)

Angulo-Martinez, Marta; Alastrué, Juan; Moret-Fernández, David; Beguería, Santiago; López, Mariví; Navas, Ana

2017-04-01

Rainfall simulation experiments were carried out in order to study soil crust formation and its relation with soil infiltration parameters—sorptivity (S) and hydraulic conductivity (K)—on four common agricultural soils with contrasted properties; namely, Cambisol, Gypsisol, Solonchak, and Solonetz. Three different rainfall simulations, replicated three times each of them, were performed over the soils. Prior to rainfall simulations all soils were mechanically tilled with a rototiller to create similar soil surface conditions and homogeneous soils. Rainfall simulation parameters were monitored in real time by a Thies Laser Precipitation Monitor, allowing a complete characterization of simulated rainfall microphysics (drop size and velocity distributions) and integrated variables (accumulated rainfall, intensity and kinetic energy). Once soils dried after the simulations, soil penetration resistance was measured and soil hydraulic parameters, S and K, were estimated using the disc infiltrometry technique. There was little variation in rainfall parameters among simulations. Mean intensity and mean median diameter (D50) varied in simulations 1 ( 0.5 bar), 2 ( 0.8 bar) and 3 ( 1.2 bar) from 26.5 mm h-1 and 0.43 mm (s1) to 40.5 mm h-1 and 0.54 mm (s2) and 41.1 mm h-1 and 0.56 mm for (s3), respectively. Crust formation by soil was explained by D50 and subsequently by the total precipitation amount and the percentage of silt and clay in soil, being Cambisol and Gypsisol the soils that showed more increase in penetration resistance by simulation. All soils showed similar S values by simulations which were explained by rainfall intensity. Different patterns of K were shown by the four soils, which were explained by the combined effect of D50 and intensity, together with soil physico-chemical properties. This study highlights the importance of monitoring all precipitation parameters to determine their effect on different soil processes.

Error threshold inference from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite rainfall data and interpolated ground-based rainfall measurements in Metro Manila

Science.gov (United States)

Ampil, L. J. Y.; Yao, J. G.; Lagrosas, N.; Lorenzo, G. R. H.; Simpas, J.

2017-12-01

IMERG performs well for moderate to high intensity rainfall and that the interpolation remains effective only when rainfall exceeds a certain threshold value. Over Metro Manila, an F-RMSE threshold of 0.5 mm indicated better correspondence between ground measured and satellite measured rainfall.

[Response of sloping water erosion to rainfall and micro-earth pattern in the loess hilly area].

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Wei; Jia, Fu-yan; Chen, Li-ding; Wu, Dong-ping; Chen, Jin

2012-08-01

Severe water erosion in the key loess hilly area is affected by the coupling role of rainfall and earth surface features. In this study, rainfall simulation techniques at the micro-plot scale (1.2 m x 1.2 m; 2 m x 1.2 m) was used as the basic measures, the relations between rainfall depth, intensity and runoff-erosion under different plant morphology features as well as micro-landscape positions were quantified and analyzed. Several key findings were captured. Firstly, rainfall depth and intensity both affected water erosion significantly, while the role of the rainfall intensity was more important than that of the depth. Secondly, a strong negative correlation was found between the antecedent soil moisture content and the generation timing of surface runoff, while water erosion had a positive relation with the antecedent soil moisture. Thirdly, different plant morphology and micro-landscape positions of shrub plant (seabuckthorn) played different roles leading to different rates of surface runoff and soil erosion. Dominated by a rainfall intensity ranging from 50 to 60 mm x h(-1), runoff coefficient in those micro-plots covered by seabuckthorn was about 5%-8%, and changed into 25%, 45% and 63% in grassland-plots, bared plots covered by biological-crust and bared plots without any coverage, respectively. Fourthly, the specific landscape position of seabuckthorn in the plots was also found to play a key role in affecting water erosion processes, and seabuckthorn at the lower landscape position, rather than the upper and middle position, played a better buffering role in reducing runoff and soil loss.

The relationship of lightning activity and short-duation rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, F.; Cui, X.; Zhang, D. L.; Lin, Q.

2017-12-01

The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). To facilitate the analysis of the rainfall-lightning correlations, the SDR events are categorized into six different intensity grades according to their hourly rainfall rates (HRRs), and an optimal radius of 10 km from individual AWSs for counting their associated lightning flashes is used. Results show that the lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly with different intensity grades. Weak correlations (R 0.4) are found in the weak SDR events, and 40-50% of the events are no-flash ones. And moderate correlation (R 0.6) are found in the moderate SDR events, and > 10-20% of the events are no-flash ones. In contrast, high correlations (R 0.7) are obtained in the SDHR events, and < 10% of the events are no-flash ones. The results indicate that lightning activity is observed more frequently and correlated more robust with the rainfall in the SDHR events. Significant time lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. The percentages of SDR events with CG or total lightning activity preceding, lagging or coinciding with rainfall shows that (i) in about 55% of the SDR events lightning flashes preceded rainfall; (ii) the SDR events with lightning flashes lagging behind rainfall accounted for about 30%; and (iii) the SDR events without any time shifts accounted for the remaining 15%. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time

Trends in rainfall erosivity in NE Spain at annual, seasonal and daily scales, 1955–2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Beguería

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity refers to the ability of precipitation to erode soil, and depends on characteristics such as its total volume, duration, and intensity and amount of energy released by raindrops. Despite the relevance of rainfall erosivity for soil degradation prevention, very few studies have addressed its spatial and temporal variability. In this study the time variation of rainfall erosivity in the Ebro Valley (NE Spain is assessed for the period 1955–2006. The results show a general decrease in annual and seasonal rainfall erosivity, which is explained by a decrease of very intense rainfall events whilst the frequency of moderate and low events increased. This trend is related to prevailing positive conditions of the main atmospheric teleconnection indices affecting the West Mediterranean, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO.

Rainfall estimation with TFR model using Ensemble Kalman filter

Science.gov (United States)

Asyiqotur Rohmah, Nabila; Apriliani, Erna

2018-03-01

Rainfall fluctuation can affect condition of other environment, correlated with economic activity and public health. The increasing of global average temperature is influenced by the increasing of CO2 in the atmosphere, which caused climate change. Meanwhile, the forests as carbon sinks that help keep the carbon cycle and climate change mitigation. Climate change caused by rainfall intensity deviations can affect the economy of a region, and even countries. It encourages research on rainfall associated with an area of forest. In this study, the mathematics model that used is a model which describes the global temperatures, forest cover, and seasonal rainfall called the TFR (temperature, forest cover, and rainfall) model. The model will be discretized first, and then it will be estimated by the method of Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The result shows that the more ensembles used in estimation, the better the result is. Also, the accurateness of simulation result is influenced by measurement variable. If a variable is measurement data, the result of simulation is better.

Monitoring and Warning of Landslides Based On Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Yudhbir, Y.

Management issues of landslide hazards assume much greater significance in poorest segments of society living in landslide risk prone hilly areas in developing countries. Analysis of the temporal recurrence of landslides shows that disastrous events occur with a frequency higher than the social and economic capacity of these societies to recover from previous events. In the context of landslide hazard management in In- dian Himalayan states this problem assumes much greater significance. Majority of the population lives on hill slopes which experience repeated landsliding activity es- pecially during the summer monsoon rains. Considering the high cost of structural control measures and the lack of necessary spatial database in respect of Quaternary geology, detailed topography and geohydrology etc., there is an acute need to develop a monitoring and warning system which is economical, easy to operate and does not require high technological inputs. Since most of the landslides in these areas are triggered by high incidence of rain, it appears attractive to explore development of a monitoring and warning network based on critical rainfall intensity thresholds. Such an option for management of landslide hazards would also provide useful meteorological data required for assessment of wa- ter resources, soil loss due to erosion, agricultural practices and flood incidence. In this paper, available approaches to the prediction and warning of landslide based on rainfall data will be critically reviewed. Various criteria recommended in litera- ture for threshold rainfall values in rain induced ground movements/failures would be compared and these relationships will be contrasted with the limited data available for the Indian Himalayan landslides. A plan for a network of automatic rain gauges and a suitable warning system will be discussed.

Centrifuge model tests of rainfall-induced slope failures for the investigation of the initiation conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Matziaris, Vasileios; Marshall, Alec; Yu, Hai-Sui

2015-04-01

Rainfall-induced landslides are very common natural disasters which cause damage to properties and infrastructure and may result in the loss of human lives. These phenomena often take place in unsaturated soil slopes and are triggered by the saturation of the soil profile, due to rain infiltration, which leads to a loss of shear strength. The aim of this study is to determine rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides under different initial conditions. Model tests of rainfall-induced landslides are conducted in the Nottingham Centre for Geomechanics 50g-T geotechnical centrifuge. Initially unsaturated plane-strain slope models made with fine silica sand are prepared at varying densities at 1g and accommodated within a climatic chamber which provides controlled environmental conditions. During the centrifuge flight at 60g, rainfall events of varying intensity and duration are applied to the slope models causing the initiation of slope failure. The impact of soil state properties and rainfall characteristics on the landslide initiation process are discussed. The variation of pore water pressures within the slope before, during and after simulated rainfall events is recorded using miniature pore pressure transducers buried in the soil model. Slope deformation is determined by using a high-speed camera and digital image analysis techniques.

Impacts of different rainfall patterns on hyporheic zone under transient conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Suning; Chui, Ting Fong May

2018-06-01

The hyporheic zone (HZ) plays an important role in stream ecology. Previous studies have mainly focused on the factors influencing the HZ in the steady state. However, the exchange between surface water and groundwater in the HZ can become transient during a storm. This study investigates the impacts of different rainfall patterns (varying in intensity and duration) on the HZ under transient conditions. A two-dimensional numerical model of a 10-m long and 2-m deep domain is developed, in which the streambed consists of a series of dunes. Brinkman-Darcy and Navier-Stokes equations are respectively solved for groundwater and surface water, and velocity and pressure are coupled at the interface (i.e., the streambed surface). To compare the results under different transient conditions, this study proposes two indicators, i.e., the influential time (IT, the time required for the HZ to return to its initial state once it starts to change) and the influential depth (ID, the maximum increment in the HZ depth). To detect the extent to which the HZ undergoes significant spatial changes, moving split-window and inflection point tests are conducted. The results indicate that rainfall intensity (RI) and rainfall duration (RD) both display logarithmic relationships with the IT and ID with high coefficients of determination, but only between certain lower and upper thresholds of the RI and RD. Moreover, the distributions of the IT and ID as a function of the RI and RD are mapped using the surface spline and kriging interpolation methods to facilitate future prediction of the IT and ID. In addition, it is observed that the IT has a linear negative correlation with the groundwater response while the ID is not affected by different groundwater responses. All of the derived relationships can be used to predict the impacts of a future rainfall event on the HZ.

Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. P. Mittermaier

2008-05-01

Full Text Available A simple measure of the uncertainty associated with using radar-derived rainfall estimates as "truth" has been introduced to the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP verification process to assess the effect on forecast skill and errors. Deterministic precipitation forecasts from the mesoscale version of the UK Met Office Unified Model for a two-day high-impact event and for a month were verified at the daily and six-hourly time scale using a spatially-based intensity-scale method and various traditional skill scores such as the Equitable Threat Score (ETS and log-odds ratio. Radar-rainfall accumulations from the UK Nimrod radar-composite were used.

The results show that the inclusion of uncertainty has some effect, shifting the forecast errors and skill. The study also allowed for the comparison of results from the intensity-scale method and traditional skill scores. It showed that the two methods complement each other, one detailing the scale and rainfall accumulation thresholds where the errors occur, the other showing how skillful the forecast is. It was also found that for the six-hourly forecasts the error distributions remain similar with forecast lead time but skill decreases. This highlights the difference between forecast error and forecast skill, and that they are not necessarily the same.

Rainfall erosivity factor estimation in Republic of Moldova

Science.gov (United States)

Castraveš, Tudor; Kuhn, Nikolaus

2017-04-01

Rainfall erosivity represents a measure of the erosive force of rainfall. Typically, it is expressed as variable such as the R factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) (Wischmeier and Smith, 1965, 1978) or its derivates. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event (EI30) is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 minutes intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable for wide regions and countries. Usually, there are three issues regarding precipitation data: low temporal resolution, low spatial density and limited access to the data. This is especially true for some of postsoviet countries from Eastern Europe, such as Republic of Moldova, where soil erosion is a real and persistent problem (Summer, 2003) and where soils represents the main natural resource of the country. Consequently, researching and managing soil erosion is particularly important. The purpose of this study is to develop a model based on commonly available rainfall data, such as event, daily or monthly amounts, to calculate rainfall erosivity for the territory of Republic of Moldova. Rainfall data collected during 1994-2015 period at 15 meteorological stations in the Republic of Moldova, with 10 minutes temporal resolution, were used to develop and calibrate a model to generate an erosivity map of Moldova. References 1. Summer, W., (2003). Soil erosion in the Republic of Moldova — the importance of institutional arrangements. Erosion Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Integrating Methods and Techniques (Proceedings of symposium HS01 held during IUGG2003 at Sapporo. July 2003). IAHS Publ. no. 279. 2. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1965). Predicting rainfall-erosion losses from cropland east of the Rocky Mountains. Agr. Handbook No. 282, U.S. Dept. Agr., Washington, DC 3. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1978). Predicting rainfall erosion losses. Agr. handbook No. 537, U.S. Dept. of Agr., Science and Education Administration.

Using naive Bayes classifier for classification of convective rainfall ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

the rainfall intensity in the convective clouds is evaluated using weather radar over the northern Algeria. The results indicate an ... tropical and extratropical regions, are dominated .... MSG is a new series of European geostationary satellites ...

Drought-avoiding plants with low water use can achieve high rainfall retention without jeopardising survival on green roofs.

Science.gov (United States)

Szota, Christopher; Farrell, Claire; Williams, Nicholas S G; Arndt, Stefan K; Fletcher, Tim D

2017-12-15

Green roofs are increasingly being used among the suite of tools designed to reduce the volume of surface water runoff generated by cities. Plants provide the primary mechanism for restoring the rainfall retention capacity of green roofs, but selecting plants with high water use is likely to increase drought stress. Using empirically-derived plant physiological parameters, we used a water balance model to assess the trade-off between rainfall retention and plant drought stress under a 30-year climate scenario. We compared high and low water users with either drought avoidance or drought tolerance strategies. Green roofs with low water-using, drought-avoiding species achieved high rainfall retention (66-81%) without experiencing significant drought stress. Roofs planted with other strategies showed high retention (72-90%), but they also experienced >50days of drought stress per year. However, not all species with the same strategy behaved similarly, therefore selecting plants based on water use and drought strategy alone does not guarantee survival in shallow substrates where drought stress can develop quickly. Despite this, it is more likely that green roofs will achieve high rainfall retention with minimal supplementary irrigation if planted with low water users with drought avoidance strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The added value of stochastic spatial disaggregation for short-term rainfall forecasts currently available in Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Gagnon, Patrick; Rousseau, Alain N.; Charron, Dominique; Fortin, Vincent; Audet, René

2017-11-01

Several businesses and industries rely on rainfall forecasts to support their day-to-day operations. To deal with the uncertainty associated with rainfall forecast, some meteorological organisations have developed products, such as ensemble forecasts. However, due to the intensive computational requirements of ensemble forecasts, the spatial resolution remains coarse. For example, Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) data is freely available on a 1-degree grid (about 100 km), while those of the so-called High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) are available on a 2.5-km grid (about 40 times finer). Potential users are then left with the option of using either a high-resolution rainfall forecast without uncertainty estimation and/or an ensemble with a spectrum of plausible rainfall values, but at a coarser spatial scale. The objective of this study was to evaluate the added value of coupling the Gibbs Sampling Disaggregation Model (GSDM) with ECCC products to provide accurate, precise and consistent rainfall estimates at a fine spatial resolution (10-km) within a forecast framework (6-h). For 30, 6-h, rainfall events occurring within a 40,000-km2 area (Québec, Canada), results show that, using 100-km aggregated reference rainfall depths as input, statistics of the rainfall fields generated by GSDM were close to those of the 10-km reference field. However, in forecast mode, GSDM outcomes inherit of the ECCC forecast biases, resulting in a poor performance when GEPS data were used as input, mainly due to the inherent rainfall depth distribution of the latter product. Better performance was achieved when the Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS), available on a 10-km grid and aggregated at 100-km, was used as input to GSDM. Nevertheless, most of the analyzed ensemble forecasts were weakly consistent. Some areas of improvement are identified herein.

High intensity circular proton accelerators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Craddock, M.K.

1987-12-01

Circular machines suitable for the acceleration of high intensity proton beams include cyclotrons, FFAG accelerators, and strong-focusing synchrotrons. This paper discusses considerations affecting the design of such machines for high intensity, especially space charge effects and the role of beam brightness in multistage accelerators. Current plans for building a new generation of high intensity 'kaon factories' are reviewed. 47 refs

EVALUATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF EROSIVITY FACTOR FOR CAMERON HIGHLAND, PAHANG, MALAYSIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdulkadir Taofeeq Sholagberu

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Rainfall-runoff is the active agent of soil erosion which often resulted in land degradation and water quality deterioration. Its aggressiveness to induce erosion is usually termed as rainfall erosivity index or factor (R. R-factor is one of the factors to be parameterized in the evaluation of soil loss using the Universal Soil Loss Equation and its reversed versions (USLE/RUSLE. The computation of accurate R-factor for a particular watershed requires high temporal resolution rainfall (pluviograph data with less than 30-minutes intensities for at least 20 yrs, which is available only in a few regions of the world. As a result, various simplified models have been proposed by researchers to evaluate R-factor using readily available daily, monthly or annual precipitation data. This study is thus aimed at estimating R-factor and to establish an approximate relationship between R-factor and rainfall for subsequent usage in the estimation of soil loss in Cameron highlands watershed. The results of the analysis showed that the least and peak (critical R-factors occurred in the months of January and April with 660.82 and 2399.18 MJ mm ha-1 h-1year-1 respectively. Also, it was observed that erosivity power starts to increase from the month of January through April before started falling in the month of July. The monthly and annual peaks (critical periods may be attributed to increased rainfall amount due to climate change which in turn resulted to increased aggressiveness of rains to cause erosion in the study area. The correlation coefficient of 0.985 showed that there was a strong relationship rainfall and R-factor.

The partitioning of litter carbon during litter decomposition under different rainfall patterns: a laboratory study

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, X.; Szlavecz, K. A.; Langley, J. A.; Pitz, S.; Chang, C. H.

2017-12-01

Quantifying litter C into different C fluxes during litter decomposition is necessary to understand carbon cycling under changing climatic conditions. Rainfall patterns are predicted to change in the future, and their effects on the fate of litter carbon are poorly understood. Soils from deciduous forests in Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC) in Maryland, USA were collected to reconstruct soil columns in the lab. 13C labeled tulip poplar leaf litter was used to trace carbon during litter decomposition. Top 1% and the mean of 15-minute historical precipitation data from nearby weather stations were considered as extreme and control rainfall intensity, respectively. Both intensity and frequency of rainfall were manipulated, while the total amount was kept constant. A pulse of CO2 efflux was detected right after each rainfall event in the soil columns with leaf litter. After the first event, CO2 efflux of the control rainfall treatment soils increased to threefold of the CO2 efflux before rain event and that of the extreme treatment soils increased to fivefold. However, in soils without leaf litter, CO2 efflux was suppressed right after rainfall events. After each rainfall event, the leaf litter contribution to CO2 efflux first showed an increase, decreased sharply in the following two days, and then stayed relatively constant. In soil columns with leaf litter, the order of cumulative CO2 efflux was control > extreme > intermediate. The order of cumulative CO2 efflux in the bare soil treatment was extreme > intermediate > control. The order of volume of leachate from different treatments was extreme > intermediate > control. Our initial results suggest that more intense rainfall events result in larger pulses of CO2, which is rarely measured in the field. Additionally, soils with and without leaf litter respond differently to precipitation events. This is important to consider in temperate regions where leaf litter cover changes throughout the year

Multifractality, imperfect scaling and hydrological properties of rainfall time series simulated by continuous universal multifractal and discrete random cascade models

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F. Serinaldi

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Discrete multiplicative random cascade (MRC models were extensively studied and applied to disaggregate rainfall data, thanks to their formal simplicity and the small number of involved parameters. Focusing on temporal disaggregation, the rationale of these models is based on multiplying the value assumed by a physical attribute (e.g., rainfall intensity at a given time scale L, by a suitable number b of random weights, to obtain b attribute values corresponding to statistically plausible observations at a smaller L/b time resolution. In the original formulation of the MRC models, the random weights were assumed to be independent and identically distributed. However, for several studies this hypothesis did not appear to be realistic for the observed rainfall series as the distribution of the weights was shown to depend on the space-time scale and rainfall intensity. Since these findings contrast with the scale invariance assumption behind the MRC models and impact on the applicability of these models, it is worth studying their nature. This study explores the possible presence of dependence of the parameters of two discrete MRC models on rainfall intensity and time scale, by analyzing point rainfall series with 5-min time resolution. Taking into account a discrete microcanonical (MC model based on beta distribution and a discrete canonical beta-logstable (BLS, the analysis points out that the relations between the parameters and rainfall intensity across the time scales are detectable and can be modeled by a set of simple functions accounting for the parameter-rainfall intensity relationship, and another set describing the link between the parameters and the time scale. Therefore, MC and BLS models were modified to explicitly account for these relationships and compared with the continuous in scale universal multifractal (CUM model, which is used as a physically based benchmark model. Monte Carlo simulations point out

Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links

Science.gov (United States)

Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire

2015-04-01

Urban areas often lack rainfall information. To increase the number of rainfall observations in cities, microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed. Although this new potential source of rainfall information has been shown to be promising, its quality needs to be demonstrated more extensively. In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Part of this project is rainfall estimation using new measurement techniques. Innovative sensing techniques will be utilized such as rainfall estimation from microwave links, umbrellas for weather sensing, low-cost sensors at lamp posts and in drainage pipes for water level observation. These will be combined with information provided by citizens in an active way through smartphone apps and in a passive way through social media posts (Twitter, Flickr etc.). Sensor information will be integrated, visualized and made accessible to citizens to help raise citizen awareness of urban water management challenges and promote resilience by providing information on how citizens can contribute in addressing these. Moreover, citizens and businesses can benefit from reliable weather information in planning their social and commercial activities. In the end city-wide high-resolution rainfall maps will be derived, blending rainfall information from microwave links and weather radars. This information will be used for urban water management. This presentation focuses on rainfall estimation from commercial microwave links. Received signal levels from tens of microwave links within the Amsterdam region (roughly 1 million inhabitants) in the Netherlands are utilized to estimate rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolution. Rainfall maps will be presented and compared to a gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data set. Rainfall time series from gauge(s), radars and links will be compared.

State-space adjustment of radar rainfall and skill score evaluation of stochastic volume forecasts in urban drainage systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup

2013-01-01

Merging of radar rainfall data with rain gauge measurements is a common approach to overcome problems in deriving rain intensities from radar measurements. We extend an existing approach for adjustment of C-band radar data using state-space models and use the resulting rainfall intensities as input...... improves runoff forecasts compared with using the original radar data and that rain gauge measurements as forecast input are also outperformed. Combining the data merging approach with short-term rainfall forecasting algorithms may result in further improved runoff forecasts that can be used in real time...

State-space adjustment of radar rainfall and stochastic flow forecasting for use in real-time control of urban drainage systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Rasmussen, Michael R.

2013-01-01

Merging of radar rainfall data with rain gauge measurements is a common approach to overcome problems in deriving rain intensities from radar measurements. We extend an existing approach for adjustment of C-band radar data using state-space models and use the resulting rainfall intensities as input...

State-space adjustment of radar rainfall and stochastic flow forecasting for use in real-time control of urban drainage systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Rasmussen, Michael R.

2012-01-01

Merging of radar rainfall data with rain gauge measurements is a common approach to overcome problems in deriving rain intensities from radar measurements. We extend an existing approach for adjustment of C-band radar data using state-space models and use the resulting rainfall intensities as input...

Characterizing fluvial heavy metal pollutions under different rainfall conditions: Implication for aquatic environment protection.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Lixun; Zhao, Bo; Xu, Gang; Guan, Yuntao

2018-09-01

Globally, fluvial heavy metal (HM) pollution has recently become an increasingly severe problem. However, few studies have investigated the variational characteristics of fluvial HMs after rain over long periods (≥1 year). The Dakan River in Xili Reservoir watershed (China) was selected as a case study to investigate pollution levels, influencing factors, and sources of HMs under different rainfall conditions during 2015 and 2016. Fluvial HMs showed evident spatiotemporal variations attributable to the coupled effects of pollution generation and rainfall diffusion. Fluvial HM concentrations were significantly associated with rainfall characteristics (e.g., rainfall intensity, rainfall amount, and antecedent dry period) and river flow, which influenced the generation and the transmission of fluvial HMs in various ways. Moreover, this interrelationship depended considerably on the HM type and particle size distribution. Mn, Pb, Cr, and Ni were major contributors to high values of the comprehensive pollution index; therefore, they should be afforded special attention. Additionally, quantitative source apportionment of fluvial HMs was conducted by combining principal component analysis with multiple linear regression and chemical mass balance models to obtain comprehensive source profiles. Finally, an environment-friendly control strategy coupling "source elimination" and "transport barriers" was proposed for aquatic environment protection. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of rainfall structure on hydrograph simulation: Comparison of radar and interpolated methods, a study case in a tropical catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Velasquez, N.; Ochoa, A.; Castillo, S.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.

2017-12-01

The skill of river discharge simulation using hydrological models strongly depends on the quality and spatio-temporal representativeness of precipitation during storm events. All precipitation measurement strategies have their own strengths and weaknesses that translate into discharge simulation uncertainties. Distributed hydrological models are based on evolving rainfall fields in the same time scale as the hydrological simulation. In general, rainfall measurements from a dense and well maintained rain gauge network provide a very good estimation of the total volume for each rainfall event, however, the spatial structure relies on interpolation strategies introducing considerable uncertainty in the simulation process. On the other hand, rainfall retrievals from radar reflectivity achieve a better spatial structure representation but with higher uncertainty in the surface precipitation intensity and volume depending on the vertical rainfall characteristics and radar scan strategy. To assess the impact of both rainfall measurement methodologies on hydrological simulations, and in particular the effects of the rainfall spatio-temporal variability, a numerical modeling experiment is proposed including the use of a novel QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) method based on disdrometer data in order to estimate surface rainfall from radar reflectivity. The experiment is based on the simulation of 84 storms, the hydrological simulations are carried out using radar QPE and two different interpolation methods (IDW and TIN), and the assessment of simulated peak flow. Results show significant rainfall differences between radar QPE and the interpolated fields, evidencing a poor representation of storms in the interpolated fields, which tend to miss the precise location of the intense precipitation cores, and to artificially generate rainfall in some areas of the catchment. Regarding streamflow modelling, the potential improvement achieved by using radar QPE depends on

A Merging Framework for Rainfall Estimation at High Spatiotemporal Resolution for Distributed Hydrological Modeling in a Data-Scarce Area

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Yinping Long

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Merging satellite and rain gauge data by combining accurate quantitative rainfall from stations with spatial continuous information from remote sensing observations provides a practical method of estimating rainfall. However, generating high spatiotemporal rainfall fields for catchment-distributed hydrological modeling is a problem when only a sparse rain gauge network and coarse spatial resolution of satellite data are available. The objective of the study is to present a satellite and rain gauge data-merging framework adapting for coarse resolution and data-sparse designs. In the framework, a statistical spatial downscaling method based on the relationships among precipitation, topographical features, and weather conditions was used to downscale the 0.25° daily rainfall field derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA precipitation product version 7. The nonparametric merging technique of double kernel smoothing, adapting for data-sparse design, was combined with the global optimization method of shuffled complex evolution, to merge the downscaled TRMM and gauged rainfall with minimum cross-validation error. An indicator field representing the presence and absence of rainfall was generated using the indicator kriging technique and applied to the previously merged result to consider the spatial intermittency of daily rainfall. The framework was applied to estimate daily precipitation at a 1 km resolution in the Qinghai Lake Basin, a data-scarce area in the northeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The final estimates not only captured the spatial pattern of daily and annual precipitation with a relatively small estimation error, but also performed very well in stream flow simulation when applied to force the geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM. The proposed framework thus appears feasible for rainfall estimation at high spatiotemporal resolution in data-scarce areas.

Evaluation of rainfall infiltration characteristics in a volcanic ash soil by time domain reflectometry method

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S. Hasegawa

1997-01-01

Full Text Available Time domain reflectometry (TDR was used to monitor soil water conditions and to evaluate infiltration characteristics associated with rainfall into a volcanic-ash soil (Hydric Hapludand with a low bulk density. Four 1 m TDR probes were installed vertically along a 6 m line in a bare field. Three 30 cm and one 60 cm probes were installed between the 1 m probes. Soil water content was measured every half or every hour throughout the year. TDR enabled prediction of the soil water content precisely even though the empirical equation developed by Topp et al. (1980 underestimated the water content. Field capacity, defined as the amount of water stored to a depth of 1 m on the day following heavy rainfall, was 640 mm. There was approximately 100 mm difference in the amount of water stored between field capacity and the driest period. Infiltration characteristics of rainfall were investigated for 36 rainfall events exceeding 10 mm with a total amount of rain of 969 mm out of an annual rainfall of 1192 mm. In the case of 25 low intensity rainfall events with less than 10 mm h-1 on to dry soils, the increase in the amount of water stored to a depth of 1 m was equal to the cumulative rainfall. For rain intensity in excess of 10 mm h-1, non-uniform infiltration occurred. The increase in the amount of water stored at lower elevation locations was 1.4 to 1.6 times larger than at higher elevation locations even though the difference in ground height among the 1 m probes was 6 cm. In the two instances when rainfall exceeded 100 mm, including the amount of rain in a previous rainfall event, the increase in the amount of water stored to a depth of 1 m was 65 mm lower than the total quantity of rain on the two occasions (220 mm; this indicated that 65 mm of water or 5.5% of the annual rainfall had flowed away either by surface runoff or bypass flow. Hence, approximately 95% of the annual rainfall was absorbed by the soil matrix but it is not possible to simulate

The Unsaturated Hydromechanical Coupling Model of Rock Slope Considering Rainfall Infiltration Using DDA

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Xianshan Liu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Water flow and hydromechanical coupling process in fractured rocks is more different from that in general porous media because of heterogeneous spatial fractures and possible fracture-dominated flow; a saturated-unsaturated hydromechanical coupling model using a discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA similar to FEM and DEM was employed to analyze water movement in saturated-unsaturated deformed rocks, in which the Van-Genuchten model differently treated the rock and fractures permeable properties to describe the constitutive relationships. The calibrating results for the dam foundation indicated the validation and feasibility of the proposed model and are also in good agreement with the calculations based on DEM still demonstrating its superiority. And then, the rainfall infiltration in a reservoir rock slope was detailedly investigated to describe the water pressure on the fault surface and inside the rocks, displacement, and stress distribution under hydromechanical coupling conditions and uncoupling conditions. It was observed that greater rainfall intensity and longer rainfall time resulted in lower stability of the rock slope, and larger difference was very obvious between the hydromechanical coupling condition and uncoupling condition, demonstrating that rainfall intensity, rainfall time, and hydromechanical coupling effect had great influence on the saturated-unsaturated water flow behavior and mechanical response of the fractured rock slopes.

Rainfall prediction with backpropagation method

Science.gov (United States)

Wahyuni, E. G.; Fauzan, L. M. F.; Abriyani, F.; Muchlis, N. F.; Ulfa, M.

2018-03-01

Rainfall is an important factor in many fields, such as aviation and agriculture. Although it has been assisted by technology but the accuracy can not reach 100% and there is still the possibility of error. Though current rainfall prediction information is needed in various fields, such as agriculture and aviation fields. In the field of agriculture, to obtain abundant and quality yields, farmers are very dependent on weather conditions, especially rainfall. Rainfall is one of the factors that affect the safety of aircraft. To overcome the problems above, then it’s required a system that can accurately predict rainfall. In predicting rainfall, artificial neural network modeling is applied in this research. The method used in modeling this artificial neural network is backpropagation method. Backpropagation methods can result in better performance in repetitive exercises. This means that the weight of the ANN interconnection can approach the weight it should be. Another advantage of this method is the ability in the learning process adaptively and multilayer owned on this method there is a process of weight changes so as to minimize error (fault tolerance). Therefore, this method can guarantee good system resilience and consistently work well. The network is designed using 4 input variables, namely air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration and 3 output variables ie low rainfall, medium rainfall, and high rainfall. Based on the research that has been done, the network can be used properly, as evidenced by the results of the prediction of the system precipitation is the same as the results of manual calculations.

Validation of a global satellite rainfall product for real time monitoring of meteorological extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Cánovas-García, Fulgencio; García-Galiano, Sandra; Karbalaee, Negar

2017-10-01

The real time monitoring of storms is important for the management and prevention of flood risks. However, in the southeast of Spain, it seems that the density of the rain gauge network may not be sufficient to adequately characterize the rainfall spatial distribution or the high rainfall intensities that are reached during storms. Satellite precipitation products such as PERSIANN-CCS (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks - Cloud Classification System) could be used to complement the automatic rain gauge networks and so help solve this problem. However, the PERSIANN-CCS product has only recently become available, so its operational validity for areas such as south-eastern Spain is not yet known. In this work, a methodology for the hourly validation of PERSIANN-CCS is presented. We used the rain gauge stations of the SIAM (Sistema de Información Agraria de Murcia) network to study three storms with a very high return period. These storms hit the east and southeast of the Iberian Peninsula and resulted in the loss of human life, major damage to agricultural crops and a strong impact on many different types of infrastructure. The study area is the province of Murcia (Region of Murcia), located in the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula, covering an area of more than 11,000 km2 and with a population of almost 1.5 million. In order to validate the PERSIANN-CCS product for these three storms, contrasts were made with the hyetographs registered by the automatic rain gauges, analyzing statistics such as bias, mean square difference and Pearson's correlation coefficient. Although in some cases the temporal distribution of rainfall was well captured by PERSIANN-CCS, in several rain gauges high intensities were not properly represented. The differences were strongly correlated with the rain gauge precipitation, but not with satellite-obtained rainfall. The main conclusion concerns the need for specific local calibration

Relationship between rainfall and shallow landslides in the southern Apuan Alps (Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Giannecchini

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The Apuan Alps region is one of the rainiest areas in Italy (more than 3000 mm/year, in which frequently heavy and concentrated rainfall occurs. This is particularly due to its geographical position and conformation: the Apuan chain is located along the northern Tuscan coast, close to the Ligurian Sea, and the main peaks reach almost 2000 m. In several cases, the storms that hit the area have triggered many shallow landslides (soil slip-debris flows, which exposed the population to serious risks (during the 19 June 1996 rainstorm about 1000 landslides were triggered and 14 people died. The assessment of the rainfall thresholds is very important in order to prepare efficient alarm systems in a region particularly dedicated to tourism and marble activities. With the aim of contributing to the landslide hazard evaluation of the southern Apuan Alps territory (upper Versilia area, a detailed analysis of the main pluviometric events was carried out. The data recorded at the main rain gauge of the area from 1975 to 2002 were analysed and compared with the occurrence of soil slips, in order to examine the relationship between soil slip initiation and rainfall. The most important rainstorms which triggered shallow landslides occurred in 1984, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998 and 2000. Many attempts were made to obtain a possible correlation between rainfall parameters and the occurrence of soil slip phenomena and to identify the local rainfall threshold for triggering shallow landslides. A threshold for soil slip activity in terms of mean intensity, duration and mean annual precipitation (MAP was defined for the study area. The thresholds obtained for the southern Apuan Alps were also compared with those proposed by other authors for several regions in the world. This emphasized the high value of the rain threshold for shallow landslide activity in the Apuan area. The high threshold is probably also linked to the high mean annual precipitation and to the high

Gauge-adjusted rainfall estimates from commercial microwave links

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Fencl

2017-01-01

experimental layouts of ground truth from rain gauges (RGs with different spatial and temporal resolutions. The results suggest that CMLs adjusted by RGs with a temporal aggregation of up to 1 h (i provide precise high-resolution QPEs (relative error  < 7 %, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient  >  0.75 and (ii that the combination of both sensor types clearly outperforms each individual monitoring system. Unfortunately, adjusting CML observations to RGs with longer aggregation intervals of up to 24 h has drawbacks. Although it substantially reduces bias, it unfavourably smoothes out rainfall peaks of high intensities, which is undesirable for stormwater management. A similar, but less severe, effect occurs due to spatial averaging when CMLs are adjusted to remote RGs. Nevertheless, even here, adjusted CMLs perform better than RGs alone. Furthermore, we provide first evidence that the joint use of multiple CMLs together with RGs also reduces bias in their QPEs. In summary, we believe that our adjustment method has great potential to improve the space–time resolution of current urban rainfall monitoring networks. Nevertheless, future work should aim to better understand the reason for the observed systematic error in QPEs from CMLs.

Internationally coordinated multi-mission planning is now critical to sustain the space-based rainfall observations needed for managing floods globally

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reed, Patrick M; Herman, Jonathan D; Chaney, Nathaniel W; Wood, Eric F; Ferringer, Matthew P

2015-01-01

At present 4 of 10 dedicated rainfall observing satellite systems have exceeded their design life, some by more than a decade. Here, we show operational implications for flood management of a ‘collapse’ of space-based rainfall observing infrastructure as well as the high-value opportunities for a globally coordinated portfolio of satellite missions and data services. Results show that the current portfolio of rainfall missions fails to meet operational data needs for flood management, even when assuming a perfectly coordinated data product from all current rainfall-focused missions (i.e., the full portfolio). In the full portfolio, satellite-based rainfall data deficits vary across the globe and may preclude climate adaptation in locations vulnerable to increasing flood risks. Moreover, removing satellites that are currently beyond their design life (i.e., the reduced portfolio) dramatically increases data deficits globally and could cause entire high intensity flood events to be unobserved. Recovery from the reduced portfolio is possible with internationally coordinated replenishment of as few as 2 of the 4 satellite systems beyond their design life, yielding rainfall data coverages that outperform the current full portfolio (i.e., an optimized portfolio of eight satellites can outperform ten satellites). This work demonstrates the potential for internationally coordinated satellite replenishment and data services to substantially enhance the cost-effectiveness, sustainability and operational value of space-based rainfall observations in managing evolving flood risks. (letter)

Temporal sequencing of throughfall drop generation as revealed by use of a large-scale rainfall simulator

Science.gov (United States)

Nanko, K.; Levia, D. F., Jr.; Iida, S.; SUN, X.; Shinohara, Y.; Sakai, N.

2017-12-01

Scientists have been interested in throughfall drop size and its distribution because of its importance to soil erosion and the forest water balance. An indoor experiment was employed to deepen our understanding of throughfall drop generation processes to promote better management of forested ecosystems. The indoor experiment provides a unique opportunity to examine an array of constant rainfall intensities that are ideal conditions to pick up the effect of changing intensities and not found in the fields. Throughfall drop generation was examined for three species- Cryptomeria japonica D. Don (Japanese cedar), Chamaecyparis obtusa (Siebold & Zucc.) Endl. (Japanese cypress), and Zelkova serrata Thunb. (Japanese zelkova)- under both leafed and leafless conditions in the large-scale rainfall simulator in the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (Tsukuba, Japan) at varying rainfall intensities ranging from15 to 100 mm h-1. Drop size distributions of the applied rainfall and throughfall were measured simultaneously by 20 laser disdrometers. Utilizing the drop size dataset, throughfall was separated into three components: free throughfall, canopy drip, and splash throughfall. The temporal sequencing of the throughfall components were analyzed on a 1-min interval during each experimental run. The throughfall component percentage and drop size of canopy drip differed among tree species and rainfall intensities and by elapsed time from the beginning of the rainfall event. Preliminary analysis revealed that the time differences to produce branch drip as compared to leaf (or needle) drip was partly due to differential canopy wet-up processes and the disappearance of branch drips due to canopy saturation, leading to dissimilar throughfall drop size distributions beneath the various tree species examined. This research was supported by JSPS Invitation Fellowship for Research in Japan (Grant No.: S16088) and JSPS KAKENHI (Grant No.: JP15H05626).

Location-Based Rainfall Nowcasting Service for Public

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, Wang-chun

2013-04-01

The Hong Kong Observatory has developed the "Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems (SWIRLS)", a radar-based rainfall nowcasting system originally to support forecasters in rainstorm warning and severe weather forecasting such as hail, lightning and strong wind gusts in Hong Kong. The system has since been extended to provide rainfall nowcast service direct for the public in recent years. Following the launch of "Rainfall Nowcast for the Pearl River Delta Region" service provided via a Geographical Information System (GIS) platform in 2008, a location-based rainfall nowcast service served through "MyObservatory", a smartphone app for iOS and Android developed by the Observatory, debuted in September 2012. The new service takes advantage of the capability of smartphones to detect own locations and utilizes the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from SWIRLS to provide location-based rainfall nowcast to the public. The conversion of radar reflectivity data (at 2 or 3 km above ground) to rainfall in SWIRLS is based on the Z-R relationship (Z=aRb) with dynamical calibration of the coefficients a and b determined using real-time rain gauge data. Adopting the "Multi-scale Optical-flow by Variational Analysis (MOVA)" scheme to track the movement of radar echoes and Semi-Lagrangian Advection (SLA) scheme to extrapolate their movement, the system is capable of producing QPF for the next six hours in a grid of 480 x 480 that covers a domain of 256 km x 256 km once every 6 minutes. Referencing the closest point in a resampled 2-km grid over the territory of Hong Kong, a prediction as to whether there will be rainfall exceeding 0.5 mm in every 30 minute intervals for the next two hours at users' own or designated locations are made available to the users in both textual and graphical format. For those users who have opted to receive notifications, a message would pop up on the user's phone whenever rain is predicted in the next two hours in a user

Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Coughlan de Perez

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in southern and eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of western and central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers.

Bias adjustment and advection interpolation of long-term high resolution radar rainfall series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Rasmussen, Michael R.

2014-01-01

It is generally acknowledged that in order to apply radar rainfall data for hydrological proposes adjustment against ground observations are crucial. Traditionally, radar reflectivity is transformed into rainfall rates applying a fixed reflectivity – rainfall rate relationship even though...... this is known to depend on the changing drop size distribution of the specific rain. This creates a transient bias between the radar rainfall and the ground observations due to seasonal changes of the drop size distribution as well as other atmospheric effects and effects related to the radar observational...

Compton scattering at high intensities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heinzl, Thomas, E-mail: thomas.heinzl@plymouth.ac.u [University of Plymouth, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Drake Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA (United Kingdom)

2009-12-01

High-intensity Compton scattering takes place when an electron beam is brought into collision with a high power laser. We briefly review the main intensity signatures using the formalism of strong-field quantum electrodynamics.

The Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Devineni, N.; Xi, C.; Lall, U.; Rahill-Marier, B.

2013-12-01

Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (upto 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. A clear understanding of the space-time rainfall patterns for events or for a season will enable in assessing the spatial distribution of areas likely to have a high/low inundation potential for each type of rainfall forcing. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances. We also investigate the connection of persistent rainfall events at different latitudinal bands to large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO. Finally, we present the scaling phenomena of contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. This can be used for spatially distributed flood risk assessment conditional on a particular rainfall scenario. Statistical models for spatio-temporal loss simulation including model uncertainty to support regional and portfolio analysis can be developed.

Quantifying Changes in Future Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Using Multimodel Ensemble Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Ragno, Elisa; AghaKouchak, Amir; Love, Charlotte A.; Cheng, Linyin; Vahedifard, Farshid; Lima, Carlos H. R.

2018-03-01

During the last century, we have observed a warming climate with more intense precipitation extremes in some regions, likely due to increases in the atmosphere's water holding capacity. Traditionally, infrastructure design and rainfall-triggered landslide models rely on the notion of stationarity, which assumes that the statistics of extremes do not change significantly over time. However, in a warming climate, infrastructures and natural slopes will likely face more severe climatic conditions, with potential human and socioeconomical consequences. Here we outline a framework for quantifying climate change impacts based on the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events using bias corrected historical and multimodel projected precipitation extremes. The approach evaluates changes in rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves and their uncertainty bounds using a nonstationary model based on Bayesian inference. We show that highly populated areas across the United States may experience extreme precipitation events up to 20% more intense and twice as frequent, relative to historical records, despite the expectation of unchanged annual mean precipitation. Since IDF curves are widely used for infrastructure design and risk assessment, the proposed framework offers an avenue for assessing resilience of infrastructure and landslide hazard in a warming climate.

Testing the Beta-Lognormal Model in Amazonian Rainfall Fields Using the Generalized Space q-Entropy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hernán D. Salas

2017-12-01

Full Text Available We study spatial scaling and complexity properties of Amazonian radar rainfall fields using the Beta-Lognormal Model (BL-Model with the aim to characterize and model the process at a broad range of spatial scales. The Generalized Space q-Entropy Function (GSEF, an entropic measure defined as a continuous set of power laws covering a broad range of spatial scales, S q ( λ ∼ λ Ω ( q , is used as a tool to check the ability of the BL-Model to represent observed 2-D radar rainfall fields. In addition, we evaluate the effect of the amount of zeros, the variability of rainfall intensity, the number of bins used to estimate the probability mass function, and the record length on the GSFE estimation. Our results show that: (i the BL-Model adequately represents the scaling properties of the q-entropy, S q, for Amazonian rainfall fields across a range of spatial scales λ from 2 km to 64 km; (ii the q-entropy in rainfall fields can be characterized by a non-additivity value, q s a t, at which rainfall reaches a maximum scaling exponent, Ω s a t; (iii the maximum scaling exponent Ω s a t is directly related to the amount of zeros in rainfall fields and is not sensitive to either the number of bins to estimate the probability mass function or the variability of rainfall intensity; and (iv for small-samples, the GSEF of rainfall fields may incur in considerable bias. Finally, for synthetic 2-D rainfall fields from the BL-Model, we look for a connection between intermittency using a metric based on generalized Hurst exponents, M ( q 1 , q 2 , and the non-extensive order (q-order of a system, Θ q, which relates to the GSEF. Our results do not exhibit evidence of such relationship.

EVALUATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS FOR MEDITERRANEAN SUBCATCHMENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Cilek

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The development and the application of rainfall-runoff models have been a corner-stone of hydrological research for many decades. The amount of rainfall and its intensity and variability control the generation of runoff and the erosional processes operating at different scales. These interactions can be greatly variable in Mediterranean catchments with marked hydrological fluctuations. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of rainfall-runoff model, for rainfall-runoff simulation in a Mediterranean subcatchment. The Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA, a simplified hydrological process-based approach, was used in this study to combine hydrological surface runoff factors. In total 128 input layers derived from data set includes; climate, topography, land use, crop type, planting date, and soil characteristics, are required to run the model. Initial ground cover was estimated from the Landsat ETM data provided by ESA. This hydrological model was evaluated in terms of their performance in Goksu River Watershed, Turkey. It is located at the Central Eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. The area is approximately 2000 km2. The landscape is dominated by bare ground, agricultural and forests. The average annual rainfall is 636.4mm. This study has a significant importance to evaluate different model performances in a complex Mediterranean basin. The results provided comprehensive insight including advantages and limitations of modelling approaches in the Mediterranean environment.

Sediment yield during typhoon events in relation to landslides, rainfall, and catchment areas in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chi-Wen; Oguchi, Takashi; Hayakawa, Yuichi S.; Saito, Hitoshi; Chen, Hongey; Lin, Guan-Wei; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chao, Yi-Chiung

2018-02-01

Debris sourced from landslides will result in environmental problems such as increased sediment discharge in rivers. This study analyzed the sediment discharge of 17 main rivers in Taiwan during 14 typhoon events, selected from the catchment area and river length, that caused landslides according to government reports. The measured suspended sediment and water discharge, collected from hydrometric stations of the Water Resources Agency of Taiwan, were used to establish rating-curve relationships, a power-law relation between them. Then sediment discharge during typhoon events was estimated using the rating-curve method and the measured data of daily water discharge. Positive correlations between sediment discharge and rainfall conditions for each river indicate that sediment discharge increases when a greater amount of rainfall or a higher intensity of rainfall falls during a typhoon event. In addition, the amount of sediment discharge during a typhoon event is mainly controlled by the total amount of rainfall, not by peak rainfall. Differences in correlation equations among the rivers suggest that catchments with larger areas produce more sediment. Catchments with relatively low sediment discharge show more distinct increases in sediment discharge in response to increases in rainfall, owing to the little opportunity for deposition in small catchments with high connectivity to rivers and the transportation of the majority of landslide debris to rivers during typhoon events. Also, differences in geomorphic and geologic conditions among catchments around Taiwan lead to a variety of suspended sediment dynamics and the sediment budget. Positive correlation between average sediment discharge and average area of landslides during typhoon events indicates that when larger landslides are caused by heavier rainfall during a typhoon event, more loose materials from the most recent landslide debris are flushed into rivers, resulting in higher sediment discharge. The high

First results from comparison of rainfall estimations by GPM IMERG with rainfall measurements from the WegenerNet high density network

Science.gov (United States)

Oo, Sungmin; Foelsche, Ulrich; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Fuchsberger, Jürgen

2016-04-01

The research level products of the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG "Final" run datasets) were compared with rainfall measurements from the WegenerNet high density network as part of ground validation (GV) projects of GPM missions. The WegenerNet network comprises 151 ground level weather stations in an area of 15 km × 20 km in south-eastern Austria (Feldbach region, ˜46.93° N, ˜15.90° E) designed to serve as a long-term monitoring and validation facility for weather and climate research and applications. While the IMERG provides rainfall estimations every half hour at 0.1° resolution, the WegenerNet network measures rainfall every 5 minutes at around 2 km2 resolution and produces 200 m × 200 m gridded datasets. The study was conducted on the domain of the WegenerNet network; eight IMERG grids are overlapped with the network, two of which are entirely covered by the WegenerNet (40 and 39 stations in each grid). We investigated data from April to September of the years 2014 to 2015; the date of first two years after the launch of the GPM Core Observatory. Since the network has a flexibility to work with various spatial and temporal scales, the comparison could be conducted on average-points to pixel basis at both sub-daily and daily timescales. This presentation will summarize the first results of the comparison and future plans to explore the characteristics of errors in the IMERG datasets.

Effect of rainfall infiltration into unsaturated soil using soil column

Science.gov (United States)

Ibrahim, A.; Mukhlisin, M.; Jaafar, O.

2018-02-01

Rainfall especially in tropical region caused infiltration to the soil slope. The infiltration may change pore water pressure or matric suction of the soil. The event of rainfall infiltration into soil is a complex mechanism. Therefore, the main objectives of this research paper is to study the influence of rainfall intensity and duration that changed pore water pressure to soil. There are two types of soils used in this study; forest soil and kaolin. Soil column apparatus is used for experiments. Rainfall were applied to the soil and result for 3, 6, 12, 24, 72, 120 and 168 hours were retrieved. Result shows that for the both types of soil, the negative pore water pressures were increased during wetting process and gradually decreased towards drying process. The results also show that pore water pressure at top part was increased greatly as the wetting process started compared to the middle and bottom part of the column.

Estimating impact of rainfall change on hydrological processes in Jianfengling rainforest watershed, China using BASINS-HSPF-CAT modeling system

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang Zhou; Ying Ouyang; Yide Li; Zhijun Qiu; Matt Moran

2017-01-01

Climate change over the past several decades has resulted in shifting rainfall pattern and modifying rain-fall intensity, which has exacerbated hydrological processes and added the uncertainty and instability tothese processes. This study ascertained impacts of potential future rainfall change on hydrological pro-cesses at the Jianfengling (JFL) tropical mountain...

Rainfall and streamflow from small tree-covered and fern-covered and burned watersheds in Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

H. W. Anderson; P. D. Duffy; Teruo Yamamoto

1966-01-01

Streamflow from two 30-acre watersheds near Honolulu was studied by using principal components regression analysis. Models using data on monthly, storm, and peak discharges were tested against several variables expressing amount and intensity of rainfall, and against variables expressing antecedent rainfall. Explained variation ranged from 78 to 94 percent. The...

Assimilation of flood extent data with 2D flood inundation models for localised intense rainfall events

Science.gov (United States)

Neal, J. C.; Wood, M.; Bermúdez, M.; Hostache, R.; Freer, J. E.; Bates, P. D.; Coxon, G.

2017-12-01

Remote sensing of flood inundation extent has long been a potential source of data for constraining and correcting simulations of floodplain inundation. Hydrodynamic models and the computing resources to run them have developed to the extent that simulation of flood inundation in two-dimensional space is now feasible over large river basins in near real-time. However, despite substantial evidence that there is useful information content within inundation extent data, even from low resolution SAR such as that gathered by Envisat ASAR in wide swath mode, making use of the information in a data assimilation system has proved difficult. He we review recent applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Particle Filter for assimilating SAR data, with a focus on the River Severn UK and compare these with complementary research that has looked at the internal error sources and boundary condition errors using detailed terrestrial data that is not available in most locations. Previous applications of the EnKF to this reach have focused on upstream boundary conditions as the source of flow error, however this description of errors was too simplistic for the simulation of summer flood events where localised intense rainfall can be substantial. Therefore, we evaluate the introduction of uncertain lateral inflows to the ensemble. A further limitation of the existing EnKF based methods is the need to convert flood extent to water surface elevations by intersecting the shoreline location with a high quality digital elevation model (e.g. LiDAR). To simplify this data processing step, we evaluate a method to directly assimilate inundation extent as a EnKF model state rather than assimilating water heights, potentially allowing the scheme to be used where high-quality terrain data are sparse.

A small single-nozzle rainfall simulator to measure erosion response on different burn severities in southern British Columbia, Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Covert, Ashley; Jordan, Peter

2010-05-01

To study the effects of wildfire burn severity on runoff generation and soil erosion from high intensity rainfall, we constructed an effective yet simple rainfall simulator that was inexpensive, portable and easily operated by two people on steep, forested slopes in southern British Columbia, Canada. The entire apparatus, including simulator, pumps, hoses, collapsible water bladders and sample bottles, was designed to fit into a single full-sized pick-up truck. The three-legged simulator extended to approximately 3.3 metres above ground on steep slopes and used a single Spraying Systems 1/2HH-30WSQ nozzle which can easily be interchanged for other sized nozzles. Rainfall characteristics were measured using a digital camera which took images of the raindrops against a grid. Median drop size and velocity 5 cm above ground were measured and found to be 3/4 of the size of natural rain drops of that diameter class, and fell 7% faster than terminal velocity. The simulator was used for experiments on runoff and erosion on sites burned in 2007 by two wildfires in southern British Columbia. Simulations were repeated one and two years after the fires. Rainfall was simulated at an average rate of 67 mm hr-1 over a 1 m2 plot for 20 minutes. This rainfall rate is similar to the 100 year return period rainfall intensity for this duration at a nearby weather station. Simulations were conducted on five replicate 1 m2 plots in each experimental unit including high burn severity, moderate burn severity, unburned, and unburned with forest floor removed. During the simulation a sample was collected for 30 seconds every minute, with two additional samples until runoff ceased, resulting in 22 samples per simulation. Runoff, overland flow coefficient, infiltration and sediment yield were compared between treatments. Additional simulations were conducted immediately after a 2009 wildfire to test different mulch treatments. Typical results showed that runoff on plots with high burn

Assessment of Rainfall-induced Landslide Potential and Spatial Distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Jing-Wen; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Hsieh, Shun-Chieh; Chue, Yung-Sheng

2016-04-01

Recently, due to the global climate change, most of the time the rainfall in Taiwan is of short duration but with high intensity. Due to Taiwan's steep terrain, rainfall-induced landslides often occur and lead to human causalities and properties loss. Taiwan's government has invested huge reconstruction funds to the affected areas. However, after rehabilitation they still face the risk of secondary sediment disasters. Therefore, this study assesses rainfall-induced (secondary) landslide potential and spatial distribution in watershed of Southern Taiwan under extreme climate change. The study areas in this research are Baolai and Jianshan villages in the watershed of the Laonongxi River Basin in the Southern Taiwan. This study focused on the 3 years after Typhoon Morakot (2009 to 2011). During this period, the study area experienced six heavy rainfall events including five typhoons and one heavy rainfall. The genetic adaptive neural network, texture analysis and GIS were implemented in the analysis techniques for the interpretation of satellite images and to obtain surface information and hazard log data and to analyze land use change. A multivariate hazards evaluation method was applied to quantitatively analyze the weights of various natural environmental and slope development hazard factors. Furthermore, this study established a slope landslide potential assessment model and depicted a slope landslide potential diagram by using the GIS platform. The interaction between (secondary) landslide mechanism, scale, and location was analyzed using association analysis of landslide historical data and regional environmental characteristics. The results of image classification before and after six heavy rainfall events show that the values of coefficient of agreement are at medium-high level. By multivariate hazards evaluation method, geology and the effective accumulative rainfall (EAR) are the most important factors. Slope, distance from fault, aspect, land disturbance

Inter-annual rainfall variability and droughts occurrence during ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study examined the trends of rainfall and the intensity of drought during sowing season and mid-season of rice farming calendar in the rainforest belt of Nigeria using data spanning 52 years (1961-2012) for five synoptic weather stations. The trends were investigated using simple linear regression and second order ...

Rainfall thresholds as a landslide indicator for engineered slopes on the Irish Rail network

Science.gov (United States)

Martinović, Karlo; Gavin, Kenneth; Reale, Cormac; Mangan, Cathal

2018-04-01

Rainfall thresholds express the minimum levels of rainfall that need to be reached or exceeded in order for landslides to occur in a particular area. They are a common tool in expressing the temporal portion of landslide hazard analysis. Numerous rainfall thresholds have been developed for different areas worldwide, however none of these are focused on landslides occurring on the engineered slopes on transport infrastructure networks. This paper uses empirical method to develop the rainfall thresholds for landslides on the Irish Rail network earthworks. For comparison, rainfall thresholds are also developed for natural terrain in Ireland. The results show that particular thresholds involving relatively low rainfall intensities are applicable for Ireland, owing to the specific climate. Furthermore, the comparison shows that rainfall thresholds for engineered slopes are lower than those for landslides occurring on the natural terrain. This has severe implications as it indicates that there is a significant risk involved when using generic weather alerts (developed largely for natural terrain) for infrastructure management, and showcases the need for developing railway and road specific rainfall thresholds for landslides.

Geo-statistical model of Rainfall erosivity by using high temporal resolution precipitation data in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

2015-04-01

Rainfall erosivity (R-factor) is among the 6 input factors in estimating soil erosion risk by using the empirical Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). R-factor is a driving force for soil erosion modelling and potentially can be used in flood risk assessments, landslides susceptibility, post-fire damage assessment, application of agricultural management practices and climate change modelling. The rainfall erosivity is extremely difficult to model at large scale (national, European) due to lack of high temporal resolution precipitation data which cover long-time series. In most cases, R-factor is estimated based on empirical equations which take into account precipitation volume. The Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) is the output of an extensive data collection of high resolution precipitation data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland taking place during 2013-2014 in collaboration with national meteorological/environmental services. Due to different temporal resolutions of the data (5, 10, 15, 30, 60 minutes), conversion equations have been applied in order to homogenise the database at 30-minutes interval. The 1,541 stations included in REDES have been interpolated using the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model using as covariates the climatic data (monthly precipitation, monthly temperature, wettest/driest month) from WorldClim Database, Digital Elevation Model and latitude/longitude. GPR has been selected among other candidate models (GAM, Regression Kriging) due the best performance both in cross validation (R2=0.63) and in fitting dataset (R2=0.72). The highest uncertainty has been noticed in North-western Scotland, North Sweden and Finland due to limited number of stations in REDES. Also, in highlands such as Alpine arch and Pyrenees the diversity of environmental features forced relatively high uncertainty. The rainfall erosivity map of Europe available at 500m resolution plus the standard error

How spatial and temporal rainfall variability affect runoff across basin scales: insights from field observations in the (semi-)urbanised Charlotte watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Ten Veldhuis, M. C.; Smith, J. A.; Zhou, Z.

2017-12-01

Impacts of rainfall variability on runoff response are highly scale-dependent. Sensitivity analyses based on hydrological model simulations have shown that impacts are likely to depend on combinations of storm type, basin versus storm scale, temporal versus spatial rainfall variability. So far, few of these conclusions have been confirmed on observational grounds, since high quality datasets of spatially variable rainfall and runoff over prolonged periods are rare. Here we investigate relationships between rainfall variability and runoff response based on 30 years of radar-rainfall datasets and flow measurements for 16 hydrological basins ranging from 7 to 111 km2. Basins vary not only in scale, but also in their degree of urbanisation. We investigated temporal and spatial variability characteristics of rainfall fields across a range of spatial and temporal scales to identify main drivers for variability in runoff response. We identified 3 ranges of basin size with different temporal versus spatial rainfall variability characteristics. Total rainfall volume proved to be the dominant agent determining runoff response at all basin scales, independent of their degree of urbanisation. Peak rainfall intensity and storm core volume are of secondary importance. This applies to all runoff parameters, including runoff volume, runoff peak, volume-to-peak and lag time. Position and movement of the storm with respect to the basin have a negligible influence on runoff response, with the exception of lag times in some of the larger basins. This highlights the importance of accuracy in rainfall estimation: getting the position right but the volume wrong will inevitably lead to large errors in runoff prediction. Our study helps to identify conditions where rainfall variability matters for correct estimation of the rainfall volume as well as the associated runoff response.

Assessment of summer rainfall forecast skill in the Intra-Americas in GFDL high and low-resolution models

Science.gov (United States)

Krishnamurthy, Lakshmi; Muñoz, Ángel G.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Stern, Bill; Gudgel, Rich; Zeng, Fanrong

2018-05-01

The Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) is an important component of the atmospheric circulation over the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) which impacts the weather and climate both locally and remotely. It influences the rainfall variability in the Caribbean, Central America, northern South America, the tropical Pacific and the continental Unites States through the transport of moisture. We make use of high-resolution coupled and uncoupled models from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate the simulation of the CLLJ and its teleconnections and further compare with low-resolution models. The high-resolution coupled model FLOR shows improvements in the simulation of the CLLJ and its teleconnections with rainfall and SST over the IAS compared to the low-resolution coupled model CM2.1. The CLLJ is better represented in uncoupled models (AM2.1 and AM2.5) forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), emphasizing the role of SSTs in the simulation of the CLLJ. Further, we determine the forecast skill for observed rainfall using both high- and low-resolution predictions of rainfall and SSTs for the July-August-September season. We determine the role of statistical correction of model biases, coupling and horizontal resolution on the forecast skill. Statistical correction dramatically improves area-averaged forecast skill. But the analysis of spatial distribution in skill indicates that the improvement in skill after statistical correction is region dependent. Forecast skill is sensitive to coupling in parts of the Caribbean, Central and northern South America, and it is mostly insensitive over North America. Comparison of forecast skill between high and low-resolution coupled models does not show any dramatic difference. However, uncoupled models show improvement in the area-averaged skill in the high-resolution atmospheric model compared to lower resolution model. Understanding and improving the forecast skill over the IAS has important implications

Measurements of effective non-rainfall in soil with the use of time-domain reflectometry technique

Science.gov (United States)

Nakonieczna, Anna; Kafarski, Marcin; Wilczek, Andrzej; Szypłowska, Agnieszka; Skierucha, Wojciech

2014-05-01

The non-rainfall vectors are fog, dew, hoarfrost and vapour adsorption directly from the atmosphere. The measurements of the amount of water supplied to the soil due to their temporary existence are essential, because in dry areas such water uptake can exceed that of rainfall. Although several devices and methods were proposed for estimating the effective non-rainfall input into the soil, the measurement standard has not yet been established. This is mainly due to obstacles in measuring small water additions to the medium, problems with taking readings in actual soil samples and atmospheric disturbances during their course in natural environment. There still exists the need for automated devices capable of measuring water deposition on real-world soil surfaces, whose resolution is high enough to measure the non-rainfall intensity and increase rate, which are usually very low. In order to achieve the desirable resolution and accuracy of the effective non-rainfall measurements the time-domain reflectometry (TDR) technique was employed. The TDR sensor designed and made especially for the purpose was an untypical waveguide. It consisted of a base made of laminate covered with copper, which served as a bottom of a cuboidal open container in which the examined materials were placed, and a copper signal wire placed on the top of the container. The wire adhered along its entire length to the tested material in order to eliminate the formation of air gaps between the two, what enhanced the accuracy of the measurements. The tested porous materials were glass beads, rinsed sand and three soil samples, which were collected in south-eastern Poland. The diameter ranges of their constituent particles were measured with the use of the laser diffraction technique. The sensor filled with the wetted material was placed on a scale and connected to the TDR meter. The automated readings of mass and TDR time were collected simultaneously every minute. The TDR time was correlated with the

Soil losses from typic cambisols and red latosol as related to three erosive rainfall patterns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Regimeire Freitas Aquino

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity is one of the main factors related to water erosion in the tropics. This work focused on relating soil loss from a typic dystrophic Tb Haplic Cambisol (CXbd and a typic dystrophic Red Latosol (LVdf to different patterns of natural erosive rainfall. The experimental plots of approximately 26 m² (3 x 8.67 m consisted of a CXbd area with a 0.15 m m-1 slope and a LVdf area with 0.12 m m-1 slope, both delimited by galvanized plates. Drainpipes were installed at the lower part of these plots to collect runoff, interconnected with a Geib or multislot divisor. To calculate erosivity (EI30, rainfall data, recorded continuously at a weather station in Lavras, were used. The data of erosive rainfall events were measured (10 mm precipitation intervals, accuracy 0.2 mm, 24 h period, 20 min intervals, characterized as rainfall events with more than 10 mm precipitation, maximum intensity > 24 mm h-1 within 15 min, or kinetic energy > 3.6 MJ, which were used in this study to calculate the rainfall erosivity parameter, were classified according to the moment of peak precipitation intensity in advanced, intermediate and delayed patterns. Among the 139 erosive rainfall events with CXbd soil loss, 60 % were attributed to the advanced pattern, with a loss of 415.9 Mg ha-1, and total losses of 776.0 Mg ha-1. As for the LVdf, of the 93 erosive rainfall events with soil loss, 58 % were listed in the advanced pattern, with 37.8 Mg ha-1 soil loss and 50.9 Mg ha-1 of total soil loss. The greatest soil losses were observed in the advanced rain pattern, especially for the CXbd. From the Cambisol, the soil loss per rainfall event was greatest for the advanced pattern, being influenced by the low soil permeability.

Rainfall simulators in hydrological and geomorphological sciences: benefits, applications and future research directions

Science.gov (United States)

Iserloh, Thomas; Cerdà, Artemi; Fister, Wolfgang; Seitz, Steffen; Keesstra, Saskia; Green, Daniel; Gabriels, Donald

2017-04-01

Rainfall simulators are used extensively within the hydrological and geomorphological sciences and provide a useful investigative tool to understand many processes, such as: (i) plot-scale runoff, infiltration and erosion; (ii) irrigation and crop management, and; (iii) investigations into flooding within a laboratory setting. Although natural rainfall is desirable as it represents actual conditions in a given geographic location, data acquisition relying on natural rainfall is often hindered by its unpredictable nature. Furthermore, rainfall characteristics such as the intensity, duration, drop size distribution and kinetic energy cannot be spatially or temporally regulated or repeated between experimentation. Rainfall simulators provide a suitable method to overcome the issues associated with depending on potentially erratic and unpredictable natural rainfall as they allow: (i) multiple measurements to be taken quickly without waiting for suitable natural rainfall conditions; (ii) the simulation of spatially and/or temporally controlled rainfall patterns over a given plot area, and; (iii) the creation of a closed environment, allowing simplified measurement of input and output conditions. There is no standardisation of rainfall simulation and as such, rainfall simulators differ in their design, rainfall characteristics and research application. Although this impedes drawing meaningful comparisons between studies, this allows researchers to create a bespoke and tailored rainfall simulator for the specific research application. This paper summarises the rainfall simulators used in European research institutions (Universities of Trier, Valencia, Basel, Tuebingen, Wageningen, Loughborough and Ghent) to investigate a number of hydrological and geomorphological issues and includes details on the design specifications (such as the extent and characteristics of simulated rainfall), as well as a discussion of the purpose and application of the rainfall simulator.

Heterogeneity of Dutch rainfall

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Witter, J.V.

1984-01-01

Rainfall data for the Netherlands have been used in this study to investigate aspects of heterogeneity of rainfall, in particular local differences in rainfall levels, time trends in rainfall, and local differences in rainfall trend. The possible effect of urbanization and industrialization on the

Rainfall and Development of Zika Virus

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2017-11-01

Nov 1, 2017 ... between rainfall and incidence of arbovirus disease such as dengue is well demonstrated (2). For Zika virus an infection, a similar observation can be expected. A recent report from Thailand can also show the expected pattern of the prevalence of Zika virus infection in the areas with high rainfall (3).

Variation in Annual Rainfall Data of Forty Years (1978-2017) for ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

PROF HORSFALL

2018-04-07

Apr 7, 2018 ... differences between the two means of the equal-length time scales revealed variability of ... intensities within the Southern part of Nigeria, is ..... Assessing Seasonal Rainfall Variability in Guinea. Savanna Part of Nigeria.

Obtaining DDF Curves of Extreme Rainfall Data Using Bivariate Copula and Frequency Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sadri, Sara; Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2009-01-01

, situated near Copenhagen in Denmark. For rainfall extracted using method 2, the marginal distribution of depth was found to fit the Generalized Pareto distribution while duration was found to fit the Gamma distribution, using the method of L-moments. The volume was fit with a generalized Pareto...... with duration for a given return period and name them DDF (depth-duration-frequency) curves. The copula approach does not assume the rainfall variables are independent or jointly normally distributed. Rainfall series are extracted in three ways: (1) by maximum mean intensity; (2) by depth and duration...... distribution and the duration was fit with a Pearson type III distribution for rainfall extracted using method 3. The Clayton copula was found to be appropriate for bivariate analysis of rainfall depth and duration for both methods 2 and 3. DDF curves derived using the Clayton copula for depth and duration...

Rainfall Characteristics and Regionalization in Peninsular Malaysia Based on a High Resolution Gridded Data Set

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chee Loong Wong

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Daily gridded rainfall data over Peninsular Malaysia are delineated using an objective clustering algorithm, with the objective of classifying rainfall grids into groups of homogeneous regions based on the similarity of the rainfall annual cycles. It has been demonstrated that Peninsular Malaysia can be statistically delineated into eight distinct rainfall regions. This delineation is closely associated with the topographic and geographic characteristics. The variation of rainfall over the Peninsula is generally characterized by bimodal variations with two peaks, i.e., a primary peak occurring during the autumn transitional period and a secondary peak during the spring transitional period. The east coast zones, however, showed a single peak during the northeast monsoon (NEM. The influence of NEM is stronger compared to the southwest monsoon (SWM. Significantly increasing rainfall trends at 95% confidence level are not observed in all regions during the NEM, with exception of northwest zone (R1 and coastal band of west coast interior region (R3. During SWM, most areas have become drier over the last three decades. The study identifies higher variation of mean monthly rainfall over the east coast regions, but spatially, the rainfall is uniformly distributed. For the southwestern coast and west coast regions, a larger range of coefficients of variation is mostly obtained during the NEM, and to a smaller extent during the SWM. The inland region received least rainfall in February, but showed the largest spatial variation. The relationship between rainfall and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO was examined based on the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI. Although the concurrent relationships between rainfall in the different regions and ENSO are generally weak with negative correlations, the rainfall shows stronger positive correlation with preceding ENSO signals with a time lag of four to eight months.

Uganda rainfall variability and prediction

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Jury, Mark R.

2018-05-01

This study analyzes large-scale controls on Uganda's rainfall. Unlike past work, here, a May-October season is used because of the year-round nature of agricultural production, vegetation sensitivity to rainfall, and disease transmission. The Uganda rainfall record exhibits steady oscillations of ˜3 and 6 years over 1950-2013. Correlation maps at two-season lead time resolve the subtropical ridge over global oceans as an important feature. Multi-variate environmental predictors include Dec-May south Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, east African upper zonal wind, and South Atlantic wind streamfunction, providing a 33% fit to May-Oct rainfall time series. Composite analysis indicates that cool-phase El Niño Southern Oscillation supports increased May-Oct Uganda rainfall via a zonal overturning lower westerly/upper easterly atmospheric circulation. Sea temperature anomalies are positive in the east Atlantic and negative in the west Indian Ocean in respect of wet seasons. The northern Hadley Cell plays a role in limiting the northward march of the equatorial trough from May to October. An analysis of early season floods found that moist inflow from the west Indian Ocean converges over Uganda, generating diurnal thunderstorm clusters that drift southwestward producing high runoff.

Initial assessment of the infiltration and overland flow for different rainfall events in land constituted of sandstones of the Botucatu Formation (Guarani Aquifer), State of São Paulo, Brazil

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Zuquette, Lázaro Valentin; Palma, Janaina Barrios; Pejon, Osni José

2006-06-01

This study was carried out in the Córrego do Vaçununga basin constituted of eolic sandstones of Botucatu Formation and residual unconsolidated materials (>90%), considered the most important unconfined aquifer in Brazil, in the city of Luiz Antonio, State of São Paulo, Brazil. Laboratory and in situ tests were performed to characterize the unconsolidated materials in terms of basic physical properties, potential infiltration rate, suction and hydraulic conductivity. The results for infiltration and overland flow depths were obtained according to Morel-Seytoux and Khanji (Water Resour Res 10(4):795-800, 1976) and Chu (Water Resour Res 14(3):461-466, 1978) adaptation of the Green and Ampt [J Agr Sci 4(Part 1):1-24, 1911] model for steady and transient rainfalls, respectively. Rainfall data were collected from January of 2000 to December of 2002, and 12 scenarios were defined considering the intensity and durations. Rather than high homogeneity in terms of the texture of unconsolidated materials, the infiltration and overland flow ratio depends on the type of land use and associated management practices. The results showed that rainfall with high intensity and short duration do not produce high overland flow ratio as we have observed for transient scenarios with long duration and low intensities.

Return period curves for extreme 5-min rainfall amounts at the Barcelona urban network

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Lana, X.; Casas-Castillo, M. C.; Serra, C.; Rodríguez-Solà, R.; Redaño, A.; Burgueño, A.; Martínez, M. D.

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall episodes are relatively common in the conurbation of Barcelona and neighbouring cities (NE Spain), usually due to storms generated by convective phenomena in summer and eastern and south-eastern advections in autumn. Prevention of local flood episodes and right design of urban drainage have to take into account the rainfall intensity spread instead of a simple evaluation of daily rainfall amounts. The database comes from 5-min rain amounts recorded by tipping buckets in the Barcelona urban network along the years 1994-2009. From these data, extreme 5-min rain amounts are selected applying the peaks-over-threshold method for thresholds derived from both 95% percentile and the mean excess plot. The return period curves are derived from their statistical distribution for every gauge, describing with detail expected extreme 5-min rain amounts across the urban network. These curves are compared with those derived from annual extreme time series. In this way, areas in Barcelona submitted to different levels of flood risk from the point of view of rainfall intensity are detected. Additionally, global time trends on extreme 5-min rain amounts are quantified for the whole network and found as not statistically significant.

Assessment of the effect of rainfall dynamics on the storm overflow performance

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Szeląg Bartosz

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Assessment of the effect of rainfall dynamics on the storm overfl ow performance. This research study analyzes the effect of the rainfall characteristics (total and maximum 10-, 15- and 30-minute rainfall depth, its duration, the dry weather period on the performance of the emergency overflow weir located at the inflow to an existing treatment plant. The analyses used the numerical calculation results of the inflow hydrographs performed in the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model program on the basis of six-year-long rainfall measurement sequence. The obtained simulation results for the analysed catchment allowed for the performance of statistical analyses, which demonstrated that the volume of stormwater discharge, the maximum instantaneous flow and the share of stormwater volume discharged through the emergency overflow weir in relation to the total volume of the inflow hydrograph from the catchment are affected by the maximum 30-minute rainfall depth, whereas the discharge duration is affected by the depth of the catchment rainfall layer. Taking into account the results of statistical and hydraulic calculations it can be concluded that in the case of the analysed catchment the performance of the emergency overflow weir is affected to the greatest extent by the rainfall intensity distribution.

Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

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Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro

2018-01-01

Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

Vallerani Micro-Catchment Infiltration Dynamics and Erosion from Simulated Rainfall and Concentrated Flow

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Founds, M. J.; McGwire, K.; Weltz, M.

2017-12-01

Critical research gaps in rangeland hydrology still exist on the impact of conservation practices on erosion and subsequent mobilization of dissolved solids to streams. This study develops the scientific foundation necessary to better understand how a restoration strategy using a Vallerani Plow can be optimized to minimize erosion from rainfall impact and concentrated flow. Use of the Vallerani system has been proposed for use in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), where rapidly eroding rangelands contribute high salt loads to the Colorado River at a significant economic cost. The poster presentation will document the findings from a series of physical rainfall and concentrated flow simulations taking place at an experimental site northeast of Reno, NV in early August. A Walnut Gulch Rainfall simulator is used to apply variable intensity and duration rainfall events to micro-catchment structures created by the Vallerani Plow. The erosion and deposition caused by simulated rainfall will be captured from multi-angle photography using structure from motion (SFM) to create sub-centimeter 3-D models between each rainfall event. A rill-simulator also will be used to apply large volumes of concentrated flow to Vallerani micro-catchments, testing the point at which their infiltration capacity is exceeded and micro-catchments are overtopped. This information is important to adequately space structures on a given hillslope so that chances of failure are minimized. Measurements of saturated hydraulic conductivity and sorptivity from a Guelph Permeameter will be compared to the experimental results in order to develop an efficient method for surveying new terrain for treatment with the Vallerani plow. The effect of micro-catchments on surface flow and erosion will eventually be incorporated into the process-based Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM) to create a tool that provides decision makers with quantitative estimates of potential reductions in erosion when

Hydraulic properties for interrill erosion on steep slopes using a portable rainfall simulator

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Shin, Seung Sook; Hwang, Yoonhee; Deog Park, Sang; Yun, Minu; Park, Sangyeon

2017-04-01

The hydraulic parameters for sheet flow on steep slopes have been not frequently measured because the shallow flow depth and slow flow velocity are difficult to measure. In this study hydraulic values of sheet flow were analyzed to evaluate interrill erosion on steep slopes. A portable rainfall simulator was used to conduct interrill erosion test. The kinetic energy of rainfall simulator was obtained by disdrometer being capable of measuring the drop size distribution and velocity of falling raindrops. The sheet flow velocity was determined by the taken time for a dye transferring fixed points using video images. Surface runoff discharge and sediment yield increased with increase of rainfall intensity and kinetic energy and slope steepness. Especially sediment yield was strongly correlated with sheet flow velocity. The maximum velocity of sheet flow was 2.3cm/s under rainfall intensity of 126.8mm/h and slope steepness of 53.2%. The sheet flow was laminar and subcritical flow as the flow Reynolds number and Froude number are respectively the ranges of 10 22 and 0.05 0.25. The roughness coefficient (Manning's n) for sheet flow on steep slopes was relatively large compared to them on the gentle slope. Keywords: Sheet flow velocity; Rainfall simulator; Interrill erosion; Steep slope This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIP) (No. 2015R1C1A2A01055469).

Detecting Climate Variability in Tropical Rainfall

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Berg, W.

2004-05-01

A number of satellite and merged satellite/in-situ rainfall products have been developed extending as far back as 1979. While the availability of global rainfall data covering over two decades and encompassing two major El Niño events is a valuable resource for a variety of climate studies, significant differences exist between many of these products. Unfortunately, issues such as availability often determine the use of a product for a given application instead of an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the various products. Significant efforts have been made to address the impact of sparse sampling by satellite sensors of variable rainfall processes by merging various satellite and in-situ rainfall products. These combine high spatial and temporal frequency satellite infrared data with higher quality passive microwave observations and rain gauge observations. Combining such an approach with spatial and temporal averaging of the data can reduce the large random errors inherent in satellite rainfall estimates to very small levels. Unfortunately, systematic biases can and do result in artificial climate signals due to the underconstrained nature of the rainfall retrieval problem. Because all satellite retrieval algorithms make assumptions regarding the cloud structure and microphysical properties, systematic changes in these assumed parameters between regions and/or times results in regional and/or temporal biases in the rainfall estimates. These biases tend to be relatively small compared to random errors in the retrieval, however, when random errors are reduced through spatial and temporal averaging for climate applications, they become the dominant source of error. Whether or not such biases impact the results for climate studies is very much dependent on the application. For example, all of the existing satellite rainfall products capture the increased rainfall in the east Pacific associated with El Niño, however, the resulting tropical response to

High Intensity Exercise in Multiple Sclerosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wens, Inez; Dalgas, Ulrik; Vandenabeele, Frank

2015-01-01

Introduction Low-to-moderate intensity exercise improves muscle contractile properties and endurance capacity in multiple sclerosis (MS). The impact of high intensity exercise remains unknown. Methods Thirty-four MS patients were randomized into a sedentary control group (SED, n = 11) and 2...... exercise groups that performed 12 weeks of a high intensity interval (HITR, n = 12) or high intensity continuous cardiovascular training (HCTR, n = 11), both in combination with resistance training. M.vastus lateralis fiber cross sectional area (CSA) and proportion, knee-flexor/extensor strength, body...... composition, maximal endurance capacity and self-reported physical activity levels were assessed before and after 12 weeks. Results Compared to SED, 12 weeks of high intensity exercise increased mean fiber CSA (HITR: +21±7%, HCTR: +23±5%). Furthermore, fiber type I CSA increased in HCTR (+29±6%), whereas type...

Vegetation controls on weathering intensity during the last deglacial transition in southeast Africa

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Ivory, Sarah J.; McGlue, Michael M.; Ellis, Geoffrey S.; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Cohen, Andrew S.; Vincens, Annie

2015-01-01

Tropical climate is rapidly changing, but the effects of these changes on the geosphere are unknown, despite a likelihood of climatically-induced changes on weathering and erosion. The lack of long, continuous paleo-records prevents an examination of terrestrial responses to climate change with sufficient detail to answer questions about how systems behaved in the past and may alter in the future. We use high-resolution records of pollen, clay mineralogy, and particle size from a drill core from Lake Malawi, southeast Africa, to examine atmosphere-biosphere-geosphere interactions during the last deglaciation (~18–9 ka), a period of dramatic temperature and hydrologic changes. The results demonstrate that climatic controls on Lake Malawi vegetation are critically important to weathering processes and erosion patterns during the deglaciation. At 18 ka, afromontane forests dominated but were progressively replaced by tropical seasonal forest, as summer rainfall increased. Despite indication of decreased rainfall, drought-intolerant forest persisted through the Younger Dryas (YD) resulting from a shorter dry season. Following the YD, an intensified summer monsoon and increased rainfall seasonality were coeval with forest decline and expansion of drought-tolerant miombo woodland. Clay minerals closely track the vegetation record, with high ratios of kaolinite to smectite (K/S) indicating heavy leaching when forest predominates, despite variable rainfall. In the early Holocene, when rainfall and temperature increased (effective moisture remained low), open woodlands expansion resulted in decreased K/S, suggesting a reduction in chemical weathering intensity. Terrigenous sediment mass accumulation rates also increased, suggesting critical linkages among open vegetation and erosion during intervals of enhanced summer rainfall. This study shows a strong, direct influence of vegetation composition on weathering intensity in the tropics. As climate change will likely impact

Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Murla, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS......), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g.DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may...... cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized...

Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

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Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

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Freund, Mandy; Henley, Benjamin J.; Karoly, David J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Baker, Patrick J.

2017-11-01

Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April-September) and warm (October-March) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997-2009) appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental period (Federation Drought

Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Freund

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean–atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April–September and warm (October–March season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997–2009 appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental

Application of seasonal rainfall forecasts and satellite rainfall observations to crop yield forecasting for Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Greatrex, H. L.; Grimes, D. I. F.; Wheeler, T. R.

2009-04-01

Rain-fed agriculture is of utmost importance in sub-Saharan Africa; the FAO estimates that over 90% of food consumed in the region is grown in rain-fed farming systems. As the climate in sub-Saharan Africa has a high interannual variability, this dependence on rainfall can leave communities extremely vulnerable to food shortages, especially when coupled with a lack of crop management options. The ability to make a regional forecast of crop yield on a timescale of months would be of enormous benefit; it would enable both governmental and non-governmental organisations to be alerted in advance to crop failure and could facilitate national and regional economic planning. Such a system would also enable individual communities to make more informed crop management decisions, increasing their resilience to climate variability and change. It should be noted that the majority of crops in the region are rainfall limited, therefore the ability to create a seasonal crop forecast depends on the ability to forecast rainfall at a monthly or seasonal timescale and to temporally downscale this to a daily time-series of rainfall. The aim of this project is to develop a regional-scale seasonal forecast for sub-Saharan crops, utilising the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). GLAM would initially be driven using both dynamical and statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide an initial estimate of crop yield. The system would then be continuously updated throughout the season by replacing the seasonal rainfall forecast with daily weather observations. TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates are used rather than rain-gauge data due to the scarcity of ground based observations. An important feature of the system is the use of the geo-statistical method of sequential simulation to create an ensemble of daily weather inputs from both the statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts and the satellite rainfall estimates. This allows a range of possible yield outputs to be

Assessing the risk posed by high-turbidity water to water supplies.

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Chang, Chia-Ling; Liao, Chung-Sheng

2012-05-01

The objective of this study is to assess the risk of insufficient water supply posed by high-turbidity water. Several phenomena can pose risks to the sufficiency of a water supply; this study concerns risks to water treatment plants from particular properties of rainfall and raw water turbidity. High-turbidity water can impede water treatment plant operations; rainfall properties can influence the degree of soil erosion. Thus, water turbidity relates to rainfall characteristics. Exceedance probabilities are presented for different rainfall intensities and turbidities of water. When the turbidity of raw water is higher than 5,000 NTU, it can cause operational problems for a water treatment plant. Calculations show that the turbidity of raw water at the Ban-Sin water treatment plant will be higher than 5,000 NTU if the rainfall intensity is larger than 165 mm/day. The exceedance probability of high turbidity (turbidity >5,000 NTU) in the Ban-Sin water treatment plant is larger than 10%. When any water treatment plant cannot work regularly, its ability to supply water to its customers is at risk.

Implication of Negative Entropy Flow for Local Rainfall

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Zhaohui Li

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The relation between the atmospheric entropy flow field and local rainfall is examined in terms of the theory of dissipative structures. In this paper, the entropy balance equation in a form suitable for describing the entropy budget of the Earth’s atmosphere is derived starting from the Gibbs relation, and, as examples, the entropy flows of the two severe weather events associated with the development of an extratropical cyclone and a tropical storm are calculated, respectively. The results show that negative entropy flow (NEF has a significant effect on the precipitation intensity and scope with an apparent matching of the NEF’s pattern with the rainfall distribution revealed and, that the diagnosis of NEF is able to provide a good indicator for precipitation forecasting.

Extreme Rainfall In A City

Science.gov (United States)

Nkemdirim, Lawrence

industrialization. The development of small cloud droplets into larger particles requires time. A single thunderstorm cell has a mean development time of about 20 minutes and a life time of around 45 minutes with a mean mind of 10m/s, an air parcel would travel 12 km from the beginning of droplet formation to the first precipitation. That means that the precipitation field is shifted downwind of settlements. It could also explain the the higher frequency of the trace to small amounts observed in Calgary since those events occur under relatively calm weather. Whereas the majority of studies have focused on summer convectional type events, little appears to have been done on the extreme rainfall events on which most structural designs are based. Is there a detectable urban bias in these events? Do urban areas intensify them? What are the implications of point distribution of extreme rainfall events on flood frequency across a city. This paper examines the spatial distribution of the mean annual maximum rainfall event in Calgary, Canada, with a view to determining the relative contribution of geographical setting and urbanisation to point patterns. The data are subsequently maximized to produce maps of probable maximum precipitation for the city. The major results are as follows: (a) position along storm path is the most important variable determining maximum rainfall hazard, (b) higher grounds receive up to seventy percent more maximum rainfall than values based on spatial trend, (c) urban structure and geometry correlate negatively with maximum rainfall intensity, however, (d) zones of maximum flood peaks are found down slope of areas of maximum precipitation increasing flood hazard in the inner city in spite of its lower precipitation. Drainage networks based on point rainfall patterns have proved grossly inadequate for flood mitigation. The new design based on this study recognizes the strong moisture gradients caused by rapid movement of water and other elements down slope. Snow

Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Rainfall by Combining BME Theory and Satellite Rainfall Estimates

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Tingting Shi

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The accurate assessment of spatiotemporal rainfall variability is a crucial and challenging task in many hydrological applications, mainly due to the lack of a sufficient number of rain gauges. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of annual and monthly rainfall over Fujian province in China by combining the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME method and satellite rainfall estimates. Specifically, based on annual and monthly rainfall data at 20 meteorological stations from 2000 to 2012, (1 the BME method with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM estimates considered as soft data, (2 ordinary kriging (OK and (3 cokriging (CK were employed to model the spatiotemporal variations of rainfall in Fujian province. Subsequently, the performance of these methods was evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results demonstrated that BME with TRMM as soft data (BME-TRMM performed better than the other two methods, generating rainfall maps that represented the local rainfall disparities in a more realistic manner. Of the three interpolation (mapping methods, the mean absolute error (MAE and root mean square error (RMSE values of the BME-TRMM method were the smallest. In conclusion, the BME-TRMM method improved spatiotemporal rainfall modeling and mapping by integrating hard data and soft information. Lastly, the study identified new opportunities concerning the application of TRMM rainfall estimates.

On the Relationship of Rainfall and Temperature across Amazonia

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Ribeiro Lima, C. H.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme droughts in Amazonia seem to become more frequent and have been associated with local and global impacts on society and the ecosystem. The understanding of the dynamics and causes of Amazonia droughts have attracted some attention in the last years and pose several challenges for the scientific community. For instance, in previous work we have identified, based on empirical data, a compounding effect during Amazonia droughts: periods of low rainfall are always associated with positive anomalies of near surface air temperature. This inverse relationship of temperature and rainfall appears at multiple time scales and its intensity varies across Amazonia. To our knowledge, these findings have not been properly addressed in the literature, being not clear whether there is a causal relationship between these two variables, and in this case, which one leads the other one, or they are just responding to the same causal factor. Here we investigate the hypothesis that high temperatures during drought periods are a major response to an increase in the shortwave radiation (due to the lack of clouds) not compensating by an expected increase in the evapotranspiration from the rainforest. Our empirical analysis is based on observed series of daily temperature and rainfall over the Brazilian Amazonia and reanalysis data of cloud cover, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and moisture fluxes. The ability of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to reproduce such compounding effect is also investigated for the historical period and for future RCP scenarios of global climate change. Preliminary results show that this is a plausible hypothesis, despite the complexity of land-atmosphere processes of mass and energy fluxes in Amazonia. This work is a step forward in better understanding the compounding effects of rainfall and temperature on Amazonia droughts, and what changes one might expect in a future warming climate.

Case study: Rainfall partitioning across a natural-to-urban forest gradient during an extreme rain event

Science.gov (United States)

Akin, B. H.; Van Stan, J. T., II; Cote, J. F.; Jarvis, M. T.; Underwood, J.; Friesen, J.; Hildebrandt, A.; Maldonado, G.

2017-12-01

Trees' partitioning of rainfall is an important first process along the rainfall-to-runoff pathway that has economically significant influences on urban stormwater management. However, important knowledge gaps exist regarding (1) its role during extreme storms and (2) how this role changes as forest structure is altered by urbanization. Little research has been conducted on canopy rainfall partitioning during large, intense storms, likely because canopy water storage is rapidly overwhelmed (i.e., 1-3 mm) by short duration events exceeding, for example, 80 mm of rainfall. However, canopy structure controls more than just storage; it also affects the time for rain to drain to the surface (becoming throughfall) and the micrometeorological conditions that drive wet canopy evaporation. In fact, observations from an example extreme ( 100 mm with maximum 5-minute intensities exceeding 55 mm/h) storm across a urban-to-natural gradient in pine forests in southeast Georgia (USA), show that storm intensities were differentially dampened by 33% (tree row), 28% (forest fragment), and 17% (natural forests). In addition, maximum wet canopy evaporation rates were higher for the exposed tree row (0.18 mm/h) than for the partially-enclosed fragment canopy (0.14 mm/h) and the closed canopy natural forest site (0.11). This resulted in interception percentages decreasing from urban-to-natural stand structures (25% to 16%). A synoptic analysis of the extreme storm in this case study also shows that the mesoscale meteorological conditions that developed the heavy rainfall is expected to occur more often with projected climate changes.

Set-up and calibration of an indoor nozzle-type rainfall simulator for soil erosion studies

Science.gov (United States)

Lassu, T.; Seeger, M.

2012-04-01

Rainfall simulation is one of the most prevalent methods used in soil erosion studies on agricultural land. In-situ simulators have been used to relate soil surface characteristics and management to runoff generation, infiltration and erosion, eg. the influence of different cultivation systems, and to parameterise erosion models. Laboratory rainfall simulators have been used to determine the impact of the soil surface characteristics such as micro-topography, surface roughness, and soil chemistry on infiltration and erosion rates, and to elucidate the processes involved. The purpose of the following study is to demonstrate the set-up and the calibration of a large indoor, nozzle-type rainfall simulator (RS) for soil erosion, surface runoff and rill development studies. This RS is part of the Kraijenhoff van de Leur Laboratory for Water and Sediment Dynamics in Wageningen University. The rainfall simulator consists from a 6 m long and 2,5 m wide plot, with metal lateral frame and one open side. Infiltration can be collected in different segments. The plot can be inclined up to 15.5° slope. From 3,85 m height above the plot 2 Lechler nozzles 460.788 are sprinkling the water onto the surface with constant intensity. A Zehnder HMP 450 pump provides the constant water supply. An automatic pressure switch on the pump keeps the pressure constant during the experiments. The flow rate is controlled for each nozzle by independent valves. Additionally, solenoid valves are mounted at each nozzle to interrupt water flow. The flow is monitored for each nozzle with flow meters and can be recorded within the computer network. For calibration of the RS we measured the rainfall distribution with 60 gauges equally distributed over the plot during 15 minutes for each nozzle independently and for a combination of 2 identical nozzles. The rainfall energy was recorded on the same grid by measuring drop size distribution and fall velocity with a laser disdrometer. We applied 2 different

Rainfall Interception in Mangrove in the Southeastern Coast of Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emerson Galvani

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Mangroves are among the ecosystems biologically more productive and important in the world, providing unique goods and services to societies and coastal systems. These areas, however, are increasingly fragmented, contributing to the loss of their services and benefits. The rains have an important influence in this ecosystem is central to the dissolution of sea salts. This study investigated the total rainfall in the mangroves located in the Coastal System Cananeia-Iguape (SP at different time scales (daily, monthly, sea-sonal and annual and its interception by the mangrove canopy. It found an intercept of 8.8%, ranging from 13% to 4% in the annual scale, showing that the annual variation of rainfall, which reflects both its quantity and its intensity contributes to the percentage of that interception by the canopy. It was also found that as the intensity of precipitation increases, trapping the mangrove canopy reduces.

Raingauge-Based Rainfall Nowcasting with Artificial Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Liong, Shie-Yui; He, Shan

2010-05-01

Rainfall forecasting and nowcasting are of great importance, for instance, in real-time flood early warning systems. Long term rainfall forecasting demands global climate, land, and sea data, thus, large computing power and storage capacity are required. Rainfall nowcasting's computing requirement, on the other hand, is much less. Rainfall nowcasting may use data captured by radar and/or weather stations. This paper presents the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on rainfall nowcasting using data observed at weather and/or rainfall stations. The study focuses on the North-East monsoon period (December, January and February) in Singapore. Rainfall and weather data from ten stations, between 2000 and 2006, were selected and divided into three groups for training, over-fitting test and validation of the ANN. Several neural network architectures were tried in the study. Two architectures, Backpropagation ANN and Group Method of Data Handling ANN, yielded better rainfall nowcasting, up to two hours, than the other architectures. The obtained rainfall nowcasts were then used by a catchment model to forecast catchment runoff. The results of runoff forecast are encouraging and promising.With ANN's high computational speed, the proposed approach may be deliverable for creating the real-time flood early warning system.

The Chennai extreme rainfall event in 2015: The Bay of Bengal connection

Science.gov (United States)

Boyaj, Alugula; Ashok, Karumuri; Ghosh, Subimal; Devanand, Anjana; Dandu, Govardhan

2018-04-01

Southeast India experienced a heavy rainfall during 30 Nov-2 Dec 2015. Particularly, the Chennai city, the fourth major metropolitan city in India with a population of 5 million, experienced extreme flooding and causalities. Using various observed/reanalysed datasets, we find that the concurrent southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) sea surface temperatures (SST) were anomalously warm. Our analysis shows that BoB sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are indeed positively, and significantly, correlated with the northeastern Indian monsoonal rainfall during this season. Our sensitivity experiments carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 25 km resolution suggest that, while the strong concurrent El Niño conditions contributed to about 21.5% of the intensity of the extreme Chennai rainfall through its signals in the local SST mentioned above, the warming trend in BoB SST also contributed equally to the extremity of the event. Further, the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) impacts on the intensity of the synoptic events in the BoB during the northeast monsoon are manifested largely through the local SST in the BoB as compared through its signature in the atmospheric circulations over the BoB.

Comparison study between traditional and finite element methods for slopes under heavy rainfall

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Rabie

2014-08-01

Moreover, slope stability concerning rainfall and infiltration is analyzed. Specially, two kinds of infiltrations (saturated and unsaturated are considered. Many slopes become saturated during periods of intense rainfall or snowmelt, with the water table rising to the ground surface, and water flowing essentially parallel to the direction of the “slope” and “Influence” of the change in shear strength, density, pore-water pressure and seepage force in soil slices on the slope stability is explained. Finally, it is found that classical limit equilibrium methods are highly conservative compared to the finite element approach. For assessment the factor of safety for slope using the later technique, no assumption needs to be made in advance about the shape or location of the failure surface, slice side forces and their directions. This document outlines the capabilities of the finite element method in the analysis of slope stability problems.

Rainfall Simulator Experiments to Investigate Macropore Impacts on Hillslope Hydrological Response

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Smit, Y.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; van der Ploeg, Martine J.

2016-01-01

Understanding hillslope runoff response to intense rainfall is an important topic in hydrology, and is key to correct prediction of extreme stream flow, erosion and landslides. Although it is known that preferential flow processes activated by macropores are an important phenomena in understanding

Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Endris, Hussen Seid; Lennard, Christopher; Hewitson, Bruce; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Artan, Guleid A.

2018-05-01

This study examines the projected changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in terms of mean state, intensity and frequency, and associated rainfall anomalies over eastern Africa. Two regional climate models driven by the same four global climate models (GCMs) and the corresponding GCM simulations are used to investigate projected changes in teleconnection patterns and East African rainfall. The period 1976-2005 is taken as the reference for present climate and the far-future climate (2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) is analyzed for projected change. Analyses of projections based on GCMs indicate an El Niño-like (positive IOD-like) warming pattern over the tropical Pacific (Indian) Ocean. However, large uncertainties remain in the projected future changes in ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity with some GCMs show increase of ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity, and others a decrease or no/small change. Projected changes in mean rainfall over eastern Africa based on the GCM and RCM data indicate a decrease in rainfall over most parts of the region during JJAS and MAM seasons, and an increase in rainfall over equatorial and southern part of the region during OND, with the greatest changes in equatorial region. During ENSO and IOD years, important changes in the strength of the teleconnections are found. During JJAS, when ENSO is an important driver of rainfall variability over the region, both GCM and RCM projections show an enhanced La Niña-related rainfall anomaly compared to the present period. Although the long rains (MAM) have little association with ENSO in the reference period, both GCMs and RCMs project stronger ENSO teleconnections in the future. On the other hand, during the short rains (OND), a dipole future change in rainfall teleconnection associated with ENSO and IOD is found, with a stronger ENSO/IOD related rainfall anomaly over the eastern part of the domain

Strategy for introduction of rainwater management facility considering rainfall event applied on new apartment complex

Science.gov (United States)

KIM, H.; Lee, D. K.; Yoo, S.

2014-12-01

As regional torrential rains become frequent due to climate change, urban flooding happens very often. That is why it is necessary to prepare for integrated measures against a wide range of rainfall. This study proposes introduction of effective rainwater management facilities to maximize the rainwater runoff reductions and recover natural water circulation for unpredictable extreme rainfall in apartment complex scale. The study site is new apartment complex in Hanam located in east of Seoul, Korea. It has an area of 7.28ha and is analysed using the EPA-SWMM and STORM model. First, it is analyzed that green infrastructure(GI) had efficiency of flood reduction at the various rainfall events and soil characteristics, and then the most effective value of variables are derived. In case of rainfall event, Last 10 years data of 15 minutes were used for analysis. A comparison between A(686mm rainfall during 22days) and B(661mm/4days) knew that soil infiltration of A is 17.08% and B is 5.48% of the rainfall. Reduction of runoff after introduction of the GI of A is 24.76% and B is 6.56%. These results mean that GI is effective to small rainfall intensity, and artificial rainwater retarding reservoir is needed at extreme rainfall. Second, set of target year is conducted for the recovery of hydrological cycle at the predevelopment. And an amount of infiltration, evaporation, surface runoff of the target year and now is analysed on the basis of land coverage, and an arrangement of LID facilities. Third, rainwater management scenarios are established and simulated by the SWMM-LID. Rainwater management facilities include GI(green roof, porous pavement, vegetative swale, ecological pond, and raingarden), and artificial rainwater. Design scenarios are categorized five type: 1)no GI, 2)conventional GI design(current design), 3)intensive GI design, 4)GI design+rainwater retarding reservoir 5)maximized rainwater retarding reservoir. Intensive GI design is to have attribute value to

Soil erodibility variability in laboratory and field rainfall simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Szabó, Boglárka; Szabó, Judit; Jakab, Gergely; Centeri, Csaba; Szalai, Zoltán

2017-04-01

Rainfall simulation experiments are the most common way to observe and to model the soil erosion processes in in situ and ex situ circumstances. During modelling soil erosion, one of the most important factors are the annual soil loss and the soil erodibility which represent the effect of soil properties on soil loss and the soil resistance against water erosion. The amount of runoff and soil loss can differ in case of the same soil type, while it's characteristics determine the soil erodibility factor. This leads to uncertainties regarding soil erodibility. Soil loss and soil erodibility were examined with the investigation of the same soil under laboratory and field conditions with rainfall simulators. The comparative measurement was carried out in a laboratory on 0,5 m2, and in the field (Shower Power-02) on 6 m2 plot size where the applied slope angles were 5% and 12% with 30 and 90 mm/h rainfall intensity. The main idea was to examine and compare the soil erodibility and its variability coming from the same soil, but different rainfall simulator type. The applied model was the USLE, nomograph and other equations which concern single rainfall events. The given results show differences between the field and laboratory experiments and between the different calculations. Concerning for the whole rainfall events runoff and soil loss, were significantly higher at the laboratory experiments, which affected the soil erodibility values too. The given differences can originate from the plot size. The main research questions are that: How should we handle the soil erodibility factors and its significant variability? What is the best solution for soil erodibility determination?

Disturbance Driven Rainfall in O`ahu, Hawai`i (1990-2010)

Science.gov (United States)

Longman, R. J.; Elison Timm, O.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Kaiser, L.; Newman, A. J.; Arnold, J.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

Trade wind orographic rainfall is the most prevalent synoptic weather pattern in Hawai`i and provides a year-round source of moisture to the windward areas across the Island chain. Significant contributions to total and extreme precipitation have also been linked to one of four atmospheric disturbance situations that include: cold fronts, Kona storms, upper-tropospheric disturbances (upper level lows), and tropical systems. The primary objective of this research is to determine how these disturbance types contribute to total wet-season rainfall (RF) on the Island of O`ahu, Hawai`i and to identify any significant changes in the frequency of occurrence and or the intensity of these events. Atmospheric fronts that occurred in the Hawai`i region (17-26°N, 150-165°W) were extracted from a global dataset and combined with a Kona low and upper level low dataset to create a daily categorical weather classification time series (1990-2010). Mean rainfall was extracted from gridded daily O`ahu RF maps. Results show that the difference between a wet and dry year is predominantly explained by the RF contributions from disturbance events (r2 = 0.57, p cold fronts that cross the Island. During the wettest season on record, disturbances accounted for 48% of the total RF, while during the driest season they accounted for only 6% of the total RF. The event-based RF analysis also compared the RF intensity in the absence of disturbance events with the average RF intensity on days when atmospheric fronts are present but do not cross the island. The results show that non-crossing fronts reduce the average RF intensity. A possible explanation is that these events are too far away to produce RF, but close enough to disrupt normal trade wind flow, thus limiting orographic RF on the island. This new event-based RF analysis has important implications for the projection of regional climate change in Hawai`i. Our results suggest that if storm tracks were to shift poleward, O`ahu wet season

Development of extreme rainfall PRA methodology for sodium-cooled fast reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Yamano, Hidemasa

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology for extreme rainfall with focusing on decay heat removal system of a sodium-cooled fast reactor. For the extreme rainfall, annual excess probability depending on the hazard intensity was statistically estimated based on meteorological data. To identify core damage sequence, event trees were developed by assuming scenarios that structures, systems and components (SSCs) important to safety are flooded with rainwater coming into the buildings through gaps in the doors and the SSCs fail when the level of rainwater on the ground or on the roof of the building becomes higher than thresholds of doors on first floor or on the roof during the rainfall. To estimate the failure probability of the SSCs, the level of water rise was estimated by comparing the difference between precipitation and drainage capacity. By combining annual excess probability and the failure probability of SSCs, the event trees led to quantification of core damage frequency, and therefore the PRA methodology for rainfall was developed. (author)

Evaluation of Surface Runoff Generation Processes Using a Rainfall Simulator: A Small Scale Laboratory Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Danáčová, Michaela; Valent, Peter; Výleta, Roman

2017-12-01

Nowadays, rainfall simulators are being used by many researchers in field or laboratory experiments. The main objective of most of these experiments is to better understand the underlying runoff generation processes, and to use the results in the process of calibration and validation of hydrological models. Many research groups have assembled their own rainfall simulators, which comply with their understanding of rainfall processes, and the requirements of their experiments. Most often, the existing rainfall simulators differ mainly in the size of the irrigated area, and the way they generate rain drops. They can be characterized by the accuracy, with which they produce a rainfall of a given intensity, the size of the irrigated area, and the rain drop generating mechanism. Rainfall simulation experiments can provide valuable information about the genesis of surface runoff, infiltration of water into soil and rainfall erodibility. Apart from the impact of physical properties of soil, its moisture and compaction on the generation of surface runoff and the amount of eroded particles, some studies also investigate the impact of vegetation cover of the whole area of interest. In this study, the rainfall simulator was used to simulate the impact of the slope gradient of the irrigated area on the amount of generated runoff and sediment yield. In order to eliminate the impact of external factors and to improve the reproducibility of the initial conditions, the experiments were conducted in laboratory conditions. The laboratory experiments were carried out using a commercial rainfall simulator, which was connected to an external peristaltic pump. The pump maintained a constant and adjustable inflow of water, which enabled to overcome the maximum volume of simulated precipitation of 2.3 l, given by the construction of the rainfall simulator, while maintaining constant characteristics of the simulated precipitation. In this study a 12-minute rainfall with a constant intensity

High intensity hadron accelerators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teng, L.C.

1989-05-01

This rapporteur report consists mainly of two parts. Part I is an abridged review of the status of all High Intensity Hadron Accelerator projects in the world in semi-tabulated form for quick reference and comparison. Part II is a brief discussion of the salient features of the different technologies involved. The discussion is based mainly on my personal experiences and opinions, tempered, I hope, by the discussions I participated in in the various parallel sessions of the workshop. In addition, appended at the end is my evaluation and expression of the merits of high intensity hadron accelerators as research facilities for nuclear and particle physics

Effect of monthly areal rainfall uncertainty on streamflow simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Ndiritu, J. G.; Mkhize, N.

2017-08-01

Areal rainfall is mostly obtained from point rainfall measurements that are sparsely located and several studies have shown that this results in large areal rainfall uncertainties at the daily time step. However, water resources assessment is often carried out a monthly time step and streamflow simulation is usually an essential component of this assessment. This study set out to quantify monthly areal rainfall uncertainties and assess their effect on streamflow simulation. This was achieved by; i) quantifying areal rainfall uncertainties and using these to generate stochastic monthly areal rainfalls, and ii) finding out how the quality of monthly streamflow simulation and streamflow variability change if stochastic areal rainfalls are used instead of historic areal rainfalls. Tests on monthly rainfall uncertainty were carried out using data from two South African catchments while streamflow simulation was confined to one of them. A non-parametric model that had been applied at a daily time step was used for stochastic areal rainfall generation and the Pitman catchment model calibrated using the SCE-UA optimizer was used for streamflow simulation. 100 randomly-initialised calibration-validation runs using 100 stochastic areal rainfalls were compared with 100 runs obtained using the single historic areal rainfall series. By using 4 rain gauges alternately to obtain areal rainfall, the resulting differences in areal rainfall averaged to 20% of the mean monthly areal rainfall and rainfall uncertainty was therefore highly significant. Pitman model simulations obtained coefficient of efficiencies averaging 0.66 and 0.64 in calibration and validation using historic rainfalls while the respective values using stochastic areal rainfalls were 0.59 and 0.57. Average bias was less than 5% in all cases. The streamflow ranges using historic rainfalls averaged to 29% of the mean naturalised flow in calibration and validation and the respective average ranges using stochastic

Observed change in extreme daily rainfalls in the French Mediterranean

Science.gov (United States)

Ribes, Aurélien; Thao, Soulivanh; Vautard, Robert; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Somot, Samuel; Colin, Jeanne; Planton, Serge; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

2017-04-01

In spite of a relatively dry mean climate, the Mediterranean regions in Southern France use to experience heavy rainfalls over short durations - typically a few minutes to one day. Here we examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area, where many long homogeneous time-series are available. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series, according to their statistical dependence. This procedure substantially enhances the signal-to-noise ratio. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at +22% (+7% to +39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequencies for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200mm in one day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this risk ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events during the last decades. We argue that the diagnosed trends can hardly be explained without invoking the human influence on climate.

Based on the rainfall system platform raindrops research and analysis of pressure loss

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Gang; Sun, Jian

2018-01-01

With the rapid development of China’s military career, land, sea and air force all services and equipment of modern equipment need to be in the rain test, and verify its might suffer during transportation, storage or use a different environment temperature lower water or use underwater, the water is derived from the heavy rain, the wind and rain, sprinkler system, splash water, water wheel, a violent shock waves or use underwater, etcTest the product performance and quality, under the condition of rainfall system platform in the process of development, how to control the raindrops pressure loss becomes the key to whether the system can simulate the real rainfall [1], this paper is according to the rainfall intensity, nozzle flow resistance, meet water flow of rain pressure loss calculation and analysis, and system arrangement of the optimal solution of rainfall is obtained [2].

Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Belgium based on radar estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Goudenhoofdt

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In Belgium, only rain gauge time series have been used so far to study extreme rainfall at a given location. In this paper, the potential of a 12-year quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE from a single weather radar is evaluated. For the period 2005–2016, 1 and 24 h rainfall extremes from automatic rain gauges and collocated radar estimates are compared. The peak intensities are fitted to the exponential distribution using regression in Q-Q plots with a threshold rank which minimises the mean squared error. A basic radar product used as reference exhibits unrealistic high extremes and is not suitable for extreme value analysis. For 24 h rainfall extremes, which occur partly in winter, the radar-based QPE needs a bias correction. A few missing events are caused by the wind drift associated with convective cells and strong radar signal attenuation. Differences between radar and gauge rainfall values are caused by spatial and temporal sampling, gauge underestimations and radar errors. Nonetheless the fit to the QPE data is within the confidence interval of the gauge fit, which remains large due to the short study period. A regional frequency analysis for 1 h duration is performed at the locations of four gauges with 1965–2008 records using the spatially independent QPE data in a circle of 20 km. The confidence interval of the radar fit, which is small due to the sample size, contains the gauge fit for the two closest stations from the radar. In Brussels, the radar extremes are significantly higher than the gauge rainfall extremes, but similar to those observed by an automatic gauge during the same period. The extreme statistics exhibit slight variations related to topography. The radar-based extreme value analysis can be extended to other durations.

A simple stochastic rainstorm generator for simulating spatially and temporally varying rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Singer, M. B.; Michaelides, K.; Nichols, M.; Nearing, M. A.

2016-12-01

In semi-arid to arid drainage basins, rainstorms often control both water supply and flood risk to marginal communities of people. They also govern the availability of water to vegetation and other ecological communities, as well as spatial patterns of sediment, nutrient, and contaminant transport and deposition on local to basin scales. All of these landscape responses are sensitive to changes in climate that are projected to occur throughout western North America. Thus, it is important to improve characterization of rainstorms in a manner that enables statistical assessment of rainfall at spatial scales below that of existing gauging networks and the prediction of plausible manifestations of climate change. Here we present a simple, stochastic rainstorm generator that was created using data from a rich and dense network of rain gauges at the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in SE Arizona, but which is applicable anywhere. We describe our methods for assembling pdfs of relevant rainstorm characteristics including total annual rainfall, storm area, storm center location, and storm duration. We also generate five fitted intensity-duration curves and apply a spatial rainfall gradient to generate precipitation at spatial scales below gauge spacing. The model then runs by Monte Carlo simulation in which a total annual rainfall is selected before we generate rainstorms until the annual precipitation total is reached. The procedure continues for decadal simulations. Thus, we keep track of the hydrologic impact of individual storms and the integral of precipitation over multiple decades. We first test the model using ensemble predictions until we reach statistical similarity to the input data from WGEW. We then employ the model to assess decadal precipitation under simulations of climate change in which we separately vary the distribution of total annual rainfall (trend in moisture) and the intensity-duration curves used for simulation (trends in storminess). We

Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

2017-12-01

This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south

Darfur: rainfall and conflict

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie

2008-01-01

Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972-2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- and post-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, and is less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but the decline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysis suggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlier is a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa

Darfur: rainfall and conflict

Science.gov (United States)

Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie

2008-07-01

Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972 2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- and post-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, and is less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but the decline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysis suggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlier is a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa.

The all-year rainfall region of South Africa: Satellite rainfall-estimate perspective

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, CJ

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Climate predictability and variability studies over South Africa typically focus on the summer rainfall region and to a lesser extent on the winter rainfall region. The all-year rainfall region of South Africa, a narrow strip located along the Cape...

Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Moody, John A.

2016-03-21

Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects.Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [Qu]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m3 s-1 km-2]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [R2]=0.69) between Qu and the rainfall intensity (ITc, computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Qu=0.26(ITc-8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an

Assessment of satellite rainfall products over the Andean plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Satgé, Frédéric; Bonnet, Marie-Paule; Gosset, Marielle; Molina, Jorge; Hernan Yuque Lima, Wilson; Pillco Zolá, Ramiro; Timouk, Franck; Garnier, Jérémie

2016-01-01

Nine satellite rainfall estimations (SREs) were evaluated for the first time over the South American Andean plateau watershed by comparison with rain gauge data acquired between 2005 and 2007. The comparisons were carried out at the annual, monthly and daily time steps. All SREs reproduce the salient pattern of the annual rain field, with a marked north-south gradient and a lighter east-west gradient. However, the intensity of the gradient differs among SREs: it is well marked in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 (TMPA-3B42), Precipitation Estimation from remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) products, and it is smoothed out in the Climate prediction center MORPHing (CMORPH) products. Another interesting difference among products is the contrast in rainfall amounts between the water surfaces (Lake Titicaca) and the surrounding land. Some products (TMPA-3B42, PERSIANN and GSMaP) show a contradictory rainfall deficit over Lake Titicaca, which may be due to the emissivity contrast between the lake and the surrounding lands and warm rain cloud processes. An analysis differentiating coastal Lake Titicaca from inland pixels confirmed this trend. The raw or Real Time (RT) products have strong biases over the study region. These biases are strongly positive for PERSIANN (above 90%), moderately positive for TMPA-3B42 (28%), strongly negative for CMORPH (- 42%) and moderately negative for GSMaP (- 18%). The biases are associated with a deformation of the rain rate frequency distribution: GSMaP underestimates the proportion of rainfall events for all rain rates; CMORPH overestimates the proportion of rain rates below 2 mm day- 1; and the other products tend to overestimate the proportion of moderate to high rain rates. These biases are greatly reduced by the gauge adjustment in the TMPA-3B42, PERSIANN and CMORPH products, whereas a

Estimation of typhoon rainfall in GaoPing River: A Multivariate Maximum Entropy Method

Science.gov (United States)

Pei-Jui, Wu; Hwa-Lung, Yu

2016-04-01

The heavy rainfall from typhoons is the main factor of the natural disaster in Taiwan, which causes the significant loss of human lives and properties. Statistically average 3.5 typhoons invade Taiwan every year, and the serious typhoon, Morakot in 2009, impacted Taiwan in recorded history. Because the duration, path and intensity of typhoon, also affect the temporal and spatial rainfall type in specific region , finding the characteristics of the typhoon rainfall type is advantageous when we try to estimate the quantity of rainfall. This study developed a rainfall prediction model and can be divided three parts. First, using the EEOF(extended empirical orthogonal function) to classify the typhoon events, and decompose the standard rainfall type of all stations of each typhoon event into the EOF and PC(principal component). So we can classify the typhoon events which vary similarly in temporally and spatially as the similar typhoon types. Next, according to the classification above, we construct the PDF(probability density function) in different space and time by means of using the multivariate maximum entropy from the first to forth moment statistically. Therefore, we can get the probability of each stations of each time. Final we use the BME(Bayesian Maximum Entropy method) to construct the typhoon rainfall prediction model , and to estimate the rainfall for the case of GaoPing river which located in south of Taiwan.This study could be useful for typhoon rainfall predictions in future and suitable to government for the typhoon disaster prevention .

Rainfall and crop modeling-based water stress assessment for rainfed maize cultivation in peninsular India

Science.gov (United States)

Manivasagam, V. S.; Nagarajan, R.

2018-04-01

Water stress due to uneven rainfall distribution causes a significant impact on the agricultural production of monsoon-dependent peninsular India. In the present study, water stress assessment for rainfed maize crop is carried out for kharif (June-October) and rabi (October-February) cropping seasons which coincide with two major Indian monsoons. Rainfall analysis (1976-2010) shows that the kharif season receives sufficient weekly rainfall (28 ± 32 mm) during 26th-39th standard meteorological weeks (SMWs) from southwest monsoon, whereas the rabi season experiences a major portion of its weekly rainfall due to northeast monsoon between the 42nd and 51st SMW (31 ± 42 mm). The later weeks experience minimal rainfall (5.5 ± 15 mm) and thus expose the late sown maize crops to a severe water stress during its maturity stage. Wet and dry spell analyses reveal a substantial increase in the rainfall intensity over the last few decades. However, the distribution of rainfall shows a striking decrease in the number of wet spells, with prolonged dry spells in both seasons. Weekly rainfall classification shows that the flowering and maturity stages of kharif maize (33rd-39th SMWs) can suffer around 30-40% of the total water stress. In the case of rabi maize, the analysis reveals that a shift in the sowing time from the existing 42nd SMW (16-22 October) to the 40th SMW (1-7 October) can avoid terminal water stress. Further, AquaCrop modeling results show that one or two minimal irrigations during the flowering and maturity stages (33rd-39th SMWs) of kharif maize positively avoid the mild water stress exposure. Similarly, rabi maize requires an additional two or three lifesaving irrigations during its flowering and maturity stages (48th-53rd SMWs) to improve productivity. Effective crop planning with appropriate sowing time, short duration crop, and high yielding drought-resistant varieties will allow for better utilization of the monsoon rain, thus reducing water stress with

'J-KAREN' - high intensity, high contrast laser

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiriyama, Hiromitsu; Mori, Michiaki; Nakai, Yoshiki; Okada, Hajime; Sasao, Hajime; Sagisaka, Akito; Ochi, Yoshihiro; Tanaka, Momoko; Kondo, Kiminori; Tateno, Ryo; Sugiyama, Akira; Daido, Hiroyuki; Koike, Masato; Kawanishi, Syunichi; Shimomura, Takuya; Tanoue, Manabu; Wakai, Daisuke; Kondo, Shuji; Kanazawa, Shuhei

2010-01-01

We report on the high intensity, high contrast double chirped-pulse amplification (CPA) Ti:sapphire laser system (named J-KAREN). By use of an optical parametric chirped-pulse amplification (OPCPA) preamplifier that is seeded by a cleaned high-energy pulse, a background amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) level of 10 -10 relative to the peak main femtosecond pulse on the picosecond timescales demonstrated with an output energy of 1.7 J and a pulse duration of 30 fs, corresponding to a peak power of 60TW at a 10 Hz repetition rate. This system which uses a cryogenically-cooled Ti:sapphire final amplifier generates focused peak intensity in excess of 10 20 W/cm 2 at a 10 Hz repetition rate. (author)

A rainfall disaggregation scheme for sub-hourly time scales: Coupling a Bartlett-Lewis based model with adjusting procedures

Science.gov (United States)

Kossieris, Panagiotis; Makropoulos, Christos; Onof, Christian; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2018-01-01

Many hydrological applications, such as flood studies, require the use of long rainfall data at fine time scales varying from daily down to 1 min time step. However, in the real world there is limited availability of data at sub-hourly scales. To cope with this issue, stochastic disaggregation techniques are typically employed to produce possible, statistically consistent, rainfall events that aggregate up to the field data collected at coarser scales. A methodology for the stochastic disaggregation of rainfall at fine time scales was recently introduced, combining the Bartlett-Lewis process to generate rainfall events along with adjusting procedures to modify the lower-level variables (i.e., hourly) so as to be consistent with the higher-level one (i.e., daily). In the present paper, we extend the aforementioned scheme, initially designed and tested for the disaggregation of daily rainfall into hourly depths, for any sub-hourly time scale. In addition, we take advantage of the recent developments in Poisson-cluster processes incorporating in the methodology a Bartlett-Lewis model variant that introduces dependence between cell intensity and duration in order to capture the variability of rainfall at sub-hourly time scales. The disaggregation scheme is implemented in an R package, named HyetosMinute, to support disaggregation from daily down to 1-min time scale. The applicability of the methodology was assessed on a 5-min rainfall records collected in Bochum, Germany, comparing the performance of the above mentioned model variant against the original Bartlett-Lewis process (non-random with 5 parameters). The analysis shows that the disaggregation process reproduces adequately the most important statistical characteristics of rainfall at wide range of time scales, while the introduction of the model with dependent intensity-duration results in a better performance in terms of skewness, rainfall extremes and dry proportions.

Does the GPM mission improve the systematic error component in satellite rainfall estimates over TRMM? An evaluation at a pan-India scale

Science.gov (United States)

Beria, Harsh; Nanda, Trushnamayee; Singh Bisht, Deepak; Chatterjee, Chandranath

2017-12-01

The last couple of decades have seen the outburst of a number of satellite-based precipitation products with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) as the most widely used for hydrologic applications. Transition of TRMM into the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) promises enhanced spatio-temporal resolution along with upgrades to sensors and rainfall estimation techniques. The dependence of systematic error components in rainfall estimates of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and their variation with climatology and topography, was evaluated over 86 basins in India for year 2014 and compared with the corresponding (2014) and retrospective (1998-2013) TRMM estimates. IMERG outperformed TRMM for all rainfall intensities across a majority of Indian basins, with significant improvement in low rainfall estimates showing smaller negative biases in 75 out of 86 basins. Low rainfall estimates in TRMM showed a systematic dependence on basin climatology, with significant overprediction in semi-arid basins, which gradually improved in the higher rainfall basins. Medium and high rainfall estimates of TRMM exhibited a strong dependence on basin topography, with declining skill in higher elevation basins. The systematic dependence of error components on basin climatology and topography was reduced in IMERG, especially in terms of topography. Rainfall-runoff modeling using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over two flood-prone basins (Mahanadi and Wainganga) revealed that improvement in rainfall estimates in IMERG did not translate into improvement in runoff simulations. More studies are required over basins in different hydroclimatic zones to evaluate the hydrologic significance of IMERG.

Does the GPM mission improve the systematic error component in satellite rainfall estimates over TRMM? An evaluation at a pan-India scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Beria

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The last couple of decades have seen the outburst of a number of satellite-based precipitation products with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM as the most widely used for hydrologic applications. Transition of TRMM into the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM promises enhanced spatio-temporal resolution along with upgrades to sensors and rainfall estimation techniques. The dependence of systematic error components in rainfall estimates of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG, and their variation with climatology and topography, was evaluated over 86 basins in India for year 2014 and compared with the corresponding (2014 and retrospective (1998–2013 TRMM estimates. IMERG outperformed TRMM for all rainfall intensities across a majority of Indian basins, with significant improvement in low rainfall estimates showing smaller negative biases in 75 out of 86 basins. Low rainfall estimates in TRMM showed a systematic dependence on basin climatology, with significant overprediction in semi-arid basins, which gradually improved in the higher rainfall basins. Medium and high rainfall estimates of TRMM exhibited a strong dependence on basin topography, with declining skill in higher elevation basins. The systematic dependence of error components on basin climatology and topography was reduced in IMERG, especially in terms of topography. Rainfall-runoff modeling using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC model over two flood-prone basins (Mahanadi and Wainganga revealed that improvement in rainfall estimates in IMERG did not translate into improvement in runoff simulations. More studies are required over basins in different hydroclimatic zones to evaluate the hydrologic significance of IMERG.

The hydrological behaviour of extensive and intensive green roofs in a dry climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Razzaghmanesh, M; Beecham, S

2014-11-15

This paper presents the results of a hydrological investigation of four medium scale green roofs that were set up at the University of South Australia. In this study, the potential of green roofs as a source control device was investigated over a 2 year period using four medium size green roof beds comprised of two growth media types and two media depths. During the term of this study, 226 rainfall events were recorded and these were representative of the Adelaide climate. In general, there were no statistically significant differences between the rainfall and runoff parameters for the intensive and extensive beds except for peak attenuation and peak runoff delay, for which higher values were recorded in the intensive beds. Longer dry periods generally resulted in higher retention coefficients and higher retention was also recorded in warmer seasons. The average retention coefficient for intensive systems (89%) was higher than for extensive systems (74%). It was shown that rainfall depth, intensity, duration and also average dry weather period between events can change the retention performance and runoff volume of the green roofs. Comparison of green and simulated conventional roofs indicated that the former were able to mitigate the peak of runoff and could delay the start of runoff. These characteristics are important for most source control measures. The recorded rainfall and runoff data displayed a non-linear relationship. Also, the results indicated that continuous time series modelling would be a more appropriate technique than using peak rainfall intensity methods for green roof design and simulation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generation of intense high-order vortex harmonics.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiaomei; Shen, Baifei; Shi, Yin; Wang, Xiaofeng; Zhang, Lingang; Wang, Wenpeng; Xu, Jiancai; Yi, Longqiong; Xu, Zhizhan

2015-05-01

This Letter presents for the first time a scheme to generate intense high-order optical vortices that carry orbital angular momentum in the extreme ultraviolet region based on relativistic harmonics from the surface of a solid target. In the three-dimensional particle-in-cell simulation, the high-order harmonics of the high-order vortex mode is generated in both reflected and transmitted light beams when a linearly polarized Laguerre-Gaussian laser pulse impinges on a solid foil. The azimuthal mode of the harmonics scales with its order. The intensity of the high-order vortex harmonics is close to the relativistic region, with the pulse duration down to attosecond scale. The obtained intense vortex beam possesses the combined properties of fine transversal structure due to the high-order mode and the fine longitudinal structure due to the short wavelength of the high-order harmonics. In addition to the application in high-resolution detection in both spatial and temporal scales, it also presents new opportunities in the intense vortex required fields, such as the inner shell ionization process and high energy twisted photons generation by Thomson scattering of such an intense vortex beam off relativistic electrons.

Development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves at ungauged sites: risk management under changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Liew, San Chuin; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Liong, Shie-Yui

2014-12-01

The impact of a changing climate is already being felt on several hydrological systems both on a regional and sub-regional scale of the globe. Southeast Asia is one of the regions strongly affected by climate change. With climate change, one of the anticipated impacts is an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall which further increase the region's flood catastrophes, human casualties and economic loss. Optimal mitigation measures can be undertaken only when stormwater systems are designed using rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves derived from a long and good quality rainfall data. Developing IDF curves for the future climate can be even more challenging especially for ungauged sites. The current practice to derive current climate's IDF curves for ungauged sites is, for example, to `borrow' or `interpolate' data from regions of climatologically similar characteristics. Recent measures to derive IDF curves for present climate was performed by extracting rainfall data from a high spatial resolution Regional Climate Model driven by ERA-40 reanalysis dataset. This approach has been demonstrated on an ungauged site (Java, Indonesia) and the results were quite promising. In this paper, the authors extend the application of the approach to other ungauged sites particularly in Peninsular Malaysia. The results of the study undoubtedly have significance contribution in terms of local and regional hydrology (Malaysia and Southeast Asian countries). The anticipated impacts of climate change especially increase in rainfall intensity and its frequency appreciates the derivation of future IDF curves in this study. It also provides policy makers better information on the adequacy of storm drainage design, for the current climate at the ungauged sites, and the adequacy of the existing storm drainage to cope with the impacts of climate change.

The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Edward; Pierce, Harold; Adler, Robert

1999-01-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.

Characteristics of the event mean concentration (EMC) from rainfall runoff on an urban highway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Ju Young; Kim, Hyoungjun; Kim, Youngjin; Han, Moo Young

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the characterization of the event mean concentration (EMC) of runoff during heavy precipitation events on highways. Highway runoff quality data were collected from the 7th highway, in South Korea during 2007-2009. The samples were analyzed for runoff quantity and quality parameters such as COD cr , TSS, TPHs, TKN, NO 3 , TP, PO 4 and six heavy metals, e.g., As, Cu, Cd, Ni, Pb and Zn. Analysis of resulting hydrographs and pollutant graphs indicates that the peak of the pollutant concentrations in runoff occurs 20 min after the first rainfall runoff occurrence. The first flush effect depends on the preceding dry period and the rainfall intensity. The results of this study can be used as a reference for water quality management of urban highways. - Research highlights: → Field test on urban highway were performed to 50 of 100 storm events for 3 years. → The peak pollutant concentrations occurs 20 min after the first runoff. → The first flush effect depends on the preceding dry period and rainfall intensity. → Relationship between runoff and event mean concentration for SS and COD. → A crest of the EMC by 70-80 m 3 /event and decreasing EMC after 70-80 m 3 /event. - This study investigate the characterization of the EMC of runoff during rainfall event on highway.

Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand

Science.gov (United States)

Duangdai, Eakkapong; Likasiri, Chulin

2017-03-01

In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973-2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year.

Changing On Diurnal Cycle Of Rainfall In Northern Coastal Of West Java

Science.gov (United States)

Yulihastin, E.; Hadi, T. W.; Ningsih, N. S.

2017-12-01

The floods event in the north of Java was largely due to persistent of rainfall that occurred in the morning which indicated of deviation of diurnal pattern of rainfall. The shift of the phase of diurnal rainfall cycle using TRMM satellite hourly data of 3B41RT on the rainy period of 2000-2016 exhibits over land from Late Afternoon-Early Midnight (LA-EM) to morning. The peak of the cycle changes from diurnal to semidiurnal with a peak occurring in LA-EM and morning. Location of rainfall which usually occurs in the oceans shifted into near coastal area. The classification of diurnal rainfall cycles based on composite analysis shows four types: Normal (N) Type (45.6%) with one peak rainfall occurring in the afternoon until night, Diurnal (D) Type (26%) with one peak and phase opposite to normal type, Semidiurnal (SD) Type (6.5 %) with two peaks and the main peak occurring in the afternoon until night, Third Diurnal (TD) Type (21.7%) with three peaks and the main peak occurs in the morning. The classification was confirmed using the objective method of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and obtained three IMFs representing three diurnal cycle modes of Type TD (67.8%) with the main rain peak taking place in the afternoon, Type D with rain peak occurring in the early hours (18.9%), and SD type (9.9%) with the first peak occurred in the afternoon. For D Type, the results also prove that the diurnal cycle with significant deviations in amplitude occurred in February 2002, 2004, 2008, 2014, wich is the maximum rainfall occurs in the EM. It also seems that in those years, rainfall intensity is concentrated on the northern coast of West Java while in the Java Sea rainfall was minimum.

[Hydrology and water quality of rainfall-runoff in combined sewerage system along Suzhou Creek in central Shanghai].

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Jiang; Yang, Kai; Huang, Xiao-Fang; Lü, Yong-Peng

2009-07-15

In order to obtain the processes of hydrology and water quality of urban combined sewerage system (CSS) in highly urbanized region, the precipitation, discharge and pollutant concentration of four different intensity rainfall (light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain and storm) were measured from Jul. to Sep. 2007 in the Chendulu CSS along Suzhou Creek in Shanghai. The results show that the shapes of runoff graph are similar to rainfall graph, with a weaker fluctuation range and a 15-25 min delay between rainfall and runoff graph. Runoff coefficients of the four different rainfall are 0.33, 0.62, 0.67 and 0.73, respectively. The 30/30 first flush phenomenon is found in Chendulu CSS. The peak of pollutant concentration graph lags rainfall peak about 30-40 min. The pH and event mean concentration (EMC) of Cu, Zn, Cr, Cd, Pb and Ni totally measure up to environmental quality standards V for surface water of China besides COD, BOD5, NH4(+) -N and TP, and the EMC of COD, BOD5, NH4(+) -N and TP are 225.0-544.1, 31.5-98.9, 8.9-44.2 and 1.98-3.52 mg x L(-1), respectively. The rainfall-runoff pollutant concentration in Chendulu CSS is close to those of other foreign cites. At the confidence level of p < 0.01, good relationships exist between SS and COD, BOD5, NH4(+) -N and TP, respectively, and the average proportion of particulate organic pollutant and nutrient is 70.21%.

Concept for a new high resolution high intensity diffractometer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stuhr, U [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

1997-09-01

A concept of a new time-of-flight powder-diffractometer for a thermal neutral beam tube at SINQ is presented. The design of the instrument optimises the contradictory conditions of high intensity and high resolution. The high intensity is achieved by using many neutron pulses simultaneously. By analysing the time-angle-pattern of the detected neutrons an assignment of the neutrons to a single pulse is possible. (author) 3 figs., tab., refs.

Slope movements triggered by heavy rainfall, November 3–5, 1985, in Virginia and West Virginia, U.S.A.