Sample records for high rainfall area

  1. A Merging Framework for Rainfall Estimation at High Spatiotemporal Resolution for Distributed Hydrological Modeling in a Data-Scarce Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinping Long


    Full Text Available Merging satellite and rain gauge data by combining accurate quantitative rainfall from stations with spatial continuous information from remote sensing observations provides a practical method of estimating rainfall. However, generating high spatiotemporal rainfall fields for catchment-distributed hydrological modeling is a problem when only a sparse rain gauge network and coarse spatial resolution of satellite data are available. The objective of the study is to present a satellite and rain gauge data-merging framework adapting for coarse resolution and data-sparse designs. In the framework, a statistical spatial downscaling method based on the relationships among precipitation, topographical features, and weather conditions was used to downscale the 0.25° daily rainfall field derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA precipitation product version 7. The nonparametric merging technique of double kernel smoothing, adapting for data-sparse design, was combined with the global optimization method of shuffled complex evolution, to merge the downscaled TRMM and gauged rainfall with minimum cross-validation error. An indicator field representing the presence and absence of rainfall was generated using the indicator kriging technique and applied to the previously merged result to consider the spatial intermittency of daily rainfall. The framework was applied to estimate daily precipitation at a 1 km resolution in the Qinghai Lake Basin, a data-scarce area in the northeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The final estimates not only captured the spatial pattern of daily and annual precipitation with a relatively small estimation error, but also performed very well in stream flow simulation when applied to force the geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM. The proposed framework thus appears feasible for rainfall estimation at high spatiotemporal resolution in data-scarce areas.

  2. Flash flood occurrence and relation to the rainfall hazard in a highly urbanized area (United States)

    Papagiannaki, K.; Lagouvardos, K.; Kotroni, V.; Bezes, A.


    The paper examines the flash flood events that occurred over a decade in the Attica prefecture, the most urbanized region of Greece, with the aim of identifying triggering rainfall thresholds, as well as assessing the effect of rainfall upon the magnitude of the induced damages. The analysis incorporates rainfall records from a network of 28 surface meteorological stations and information on the spatial distribution of the flash flood events that is derived from the active database of damaging weather events maintained by the atmospheric modelling group of the National Observatory of Athens. The main findings concern firstly the relation between the flash flood impact, as measured by the fire service operations in flooded properties, and precipitation in various time intervals. In the period 2005-2014, 48 damaging flash flood events occurred in the target area and caused more than 3500 fire service operations in flooded properties. Most of the events are associated with maximum accumulated rainfall of more than 20 mm in 24 h and 3 mm in 10 min. However, the flash flood impact intensity, as measured by the number of the fire service operations per event, increases significantly above the levels of 60 mm in 24 h and 10 mm in 10 min. Secondly, graphs of rainfall intensity versus duration are developed for 15 sub-areas of Attica in order to define rainfall intensity thresholds for flood triggering at a more local level. It is shown that conclusions regarding the reliability of the estimated thresholds should take into account the representativity of the rain gauges, which is determined by the local network's density, the gauges' location and record length.

  3. Fine-scale Characteristics of Rainfall in Beijing Urban Area Based on A High-density Autonomous Weather Stations (AWS) Dataset (United States)

    Yang, Ping


    On the basis of a quality controlled hourly rainfall dataset from autonomous weather stations (AWS) for the past 8 years (2007-2014), the general and fine-scale characteristics of rainfall in Beijing were analyzed. Results show that there are two high rainfall centers in all area of Beijing. The urban heat island has an important effect on rainfall events. The rainfall events distribute unevenly both on seasonal scale and on daily scale. The study also found that the influence of urban heat island on rainfall events is different among different seasons. Events with high values of rainfall and 1-3 h and 4-6 h durations in the summer largely occur over central and northeastern Beijing, where the urban heat island has significant influences. However, there are fewer events of low rainfall with 6- h and longer duration in urban area in the summer. The features of rainfall distributions in the spring and autumn are opposite to that in the summer. Differences in diurnal variations of rainfall in different seasons are distinguished. The diurnal variation of precipitation displays a two-peak feature in the spring and autumn, while it only shows a single peak in the summer. These features are in accordance with the distributions of occurrence time of maximum rainfall amount over Beijing. Keywords Rainfall events, Hourly rainfall dataset, Fine-scale characteristics, Seasonal

  4. Flash flood occurrence and relation to the rainfall hazard in a highly urbanized area


    Papagiannaki, K.; K. Lagouvardos; V. Kotroni; A. Bezes


    The paper examines the flash flood events that occurred over a decade in the Attica prefecture, the most urbanized region of Greece, with the aim of identifying triggering rainfall thresholds, as well as assessing the effect of rainfall upon the magnitude of the induced damages. The analysis incorporates rainfall records from a network of 28 surface meteorological stations and information on the spatial distribution of the flash flood events that is derived from the active d...

  5. Flash flood occurrence and relation to the rainfall hazard in a highly urbanized area

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Papagiannaki, K; Lagouvardos, K; Kotroni, V; Bezes, A


    The paper examines the flash flood events that occurred over a decade in the Attica prefecture, the most urbanized region of Greece, with the aim of identifying triggering rainfall thresholds, as well...

  6. Flash flood occurrence and relation to the rainfall hazard in a highly urbanized area


    Papagiannaki, K.; K. Lagouvardos; V. Kotroni; A. Bezes


    The paper examines the flash flood events that occurred during a decade in the Attica prefecture, the most urbanized region of Greece, with the aim of assessing the local vulnerability to the flash flood hazard and the effect of rainfall upon the magnitude of the induced damages. The analysis incorporates rainfall records from a network of 28 surface meteorological stations and information on the spatial distribution of the flash flood events that is derived from the active ...

  7. Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature. (United States)

    Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua


    Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates.

  8. Urban areas impact on surface water quality during rainfall events (United States)

    Ferreira, C. S. S.; Soares, D.; Ferreira, A. J. D.; Costa, M. L.; Steenhuis, T. S.; Coelho, C. O. A.; Walsh, R. P. D.


    Increasing population and welfare puts water management under stress, especially in what concerns water quality. Surface water properties are strongly linked with hydrological processes and are affected by stream flow variability. Changes in some chemical substances concentrations can be ascribed to different water sources. Runoff generated in urban areas is considered the main responsible for water quality degradation inside catchments. This poster presents the methodology and first results of a study that is being developed to assess the impact of urbanization on surface water quality, during rainfall events. It focuses on the Ribeira dos Covões catchment (620 ha) located in central Portugal. Due to its proximity to the Coimbra city in central region, the urban areas sprawled during the last decades. In 2008, urban areas represented 32% of the area. Recently a highway was constructed crossing the catchment and a technological industrial park is being build-up in the headwaters. Several water samples were collected at four different locations: the catchment outlet and in three sub-catchments with distinct urbanization patterns - Espírito Santo that represents a highly urbanized area (45%) located over sandstone, Porto do Bordalo with 30% of urbanized area located over limestone, and IParque, mainly forest and just downstream the disturbed technological industrial park construction area. The samples were collected at different times during rainfall events to monitor the variability along the hydrograph. Six monitoring campaigns were performed: two in April 2011, at the end of the winter period, and the others between October and November 2011, after the dry summer. The number of samples collected per monitoring campaign is variable according with rainfall pattern. Parameters such as pH, conductivity, turbidity and total suspended sediments were immediately analyzed. The samples were then preserved, after filtered (0.45µm), and later analyzed for dissolved

  9. Assessment of runoff contributing catchment areas in rainfall runoff modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld


    In numerical modelling of rainfall caused runoff in urban sewer systems an essential parameter is the hydrological reduction factor which defines the percentage of the impervious area contributing to the surface flow towards the sewer. As the hydrological processes during a rainfall are difficult...... to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...... recommended literature values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literature values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchment. In addition, different catchment descriptions...

  10. Assessment of Runoff Contributing Catchment Areas in Rainfall Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld


    In numerical modelling of rainfall caused runoff in urban sewer systems an essential parameter is the hydrological reduction factor which defines the percentage of the impervious area contributing to the surface flow towards the sewer. As the hydrological processes during a rainfall are difficult...... to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...... recommended literary values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literary values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchments. In addition, different catchment descriptions...

  11. Synthesis of rainfall time series in a high temporal resolution (United States)

    Callau Poduje, Ana Claudia; Haberlandt, Uwe


    In order to optimize the design and operation of urban drainage systems, long and continuous rain series in a high temporal resolution are essential. As the length of the rainfall records is often short, particularly the data available with the temporal and regional resolutions required for urban hydrology, it is necessary to find some numerical representation of the precipitation phenomenon to generate long synthetic rainfall series. An Alternating Renewal Model (ARM) is applied for this purpose, which consists of two structures: external and internal. The former is the sequence of wet and dry spells, described by their durations which are simulated stochastically. The internal structure is characterized by the amount of rain corresponding to each wet spell and its distribution within the spell. A multivariate frequency analysis is applied to analyze the internal structure of the wet spells and to generate synthetic events. The stochastic time series must reproduce the statistical characteristics of observed high resolution precipitation measurements used to generate them. The spatio-temporal interdependencies between stations are addressed by resampling the continuous synthetic series based on the Simulated Annealing (SA) procedure. The state of Lower-Saxony and surrounding areas, located in the north-west of Germany is used to develop the ARM. A total of 26 rainfall stations with high temporal resolution records, i.e. rainfall data every 5 minutes, are used to define the events, find the most suitable probability distributions, calibrate the corresponding parameters, simulate long synthetic series and evaluate the results. The length of the available data ranges from 10 to 20 years. The rainfall series involved in the different steps of calculation are compared using a rainfall-runoff model to simulate the runoff behavior in urban areas. The EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is applied for this evaluation. The results show a good representation of the

  12. Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Muchuru, S


    Full Text Available The Lake Kariba catchment area in southern Africa has one of the most variable climates of any major river basin, with an extreme range of conditions across the catchment and through time. Marked seasonal and interannual fluctuations in rainfall...

  13. The effects of rainfall regimes and terracing on runoff and erosion in the Three Gorges area, China. (United States)

    Xu, Qin-Xue; Wu, Pan; Dai, Jun-Feng; Wang, Tian-Wei; Li, Zhao-Xia; Cai, Chong-Fa; Shi, Zhi-Hua


    Changes in natural rainfall regimes have taken place and are expected to become more pronounced in future decades. These changes are also likely to be accompanied by changes in crop management practices. The main purpose of this study was to analyze runoff and soil loss in relation to rainfall regimes and terracing in the Three Gorges area, China. Based on 10 years of field observation and k-mean clusters, 101 rainfall events were grouped into three rainfall regimes. Rainfall regime I was the group of events with strong rainfall intensity, high frequency, and short duration. Rainfall regime III consisted of events with low intensity, long duration, and high rainfall amount. Rainfall regime II was the aggregation of events of high intensity and amount, and less frequent occurrence. The results showed that event runoff coefficients were not significantly different among rainfall regimes. However, the average soil erosion rates in rainfall regimes I and II were significantly higher than that in regime III. The average erosion rates under rainfall regimes I, II, and III were 21.6, 39.7, and 9.8 g m -2 , respectively. The effect of rainfall regime on soil erosion also was changed by terracing. On unterraced cropland, soil erosion rate in rainfall regime I is significantly higher than that in regime III. However, the situation did not exist in unterraced orchard. Terracing significantly reduced runoff and soil erosion, and compensated the effects of rainfall regime on soil erosion, which indicated that runoff and erosion in terraced system may be little influenced by climate change. Based on these results, it was suggested more attention should be paid to the timing of rainfall events in relation to crop development and the high erosion on unterraced citrus orchard to control soil erosion in this area.

  14. Behaviour of {sup 210}Po in fresh water ecosystem located in high rainfall area around proposed uranium mining site in India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jha, S.K. [Environmental Radioactivity measurement Section, Health Physics Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai-400085 (India)


    .03). Mean Gross alpha activity measured in 189 samples from nine locations varies from 45 - 114 mBq L{sup -1}. The maximum gross alpha radioactivity 114 mBq L{sup -1} was observed in surface water samples from phud Syngkai. The gross alpha activity concentrations for drinking water were exceeded beyond the recommended WHO guideline at two locations namely at Phud Syngkai and Nongtynger. The water samples from Mawthabah and Nongtynger contains highest concentration of {sup 210}Po having lowest Mn concentration whereas reverse pattern was observed at Wahkaji. The similar behavior was not observed for the Fe. The water samples of the prevailing physico-chemical condition supports increase in {sup 210}Po concentration with decrease in Mn concentration as Mn(IV) oxides adsorb or incorporate substantial amounts of {sup 210}Po. The maximum water radioactivity concentrations for gross alpha were 114 mBq L{sup -1} obtained in Phud Syngkai. The studied water was characterized by low dissolved oxygen and their acidic, slightly acidic nature. Low ionic concentration and high polonium concentration in the waters of the study areas comprised the most interesting feature of present observations. Water having minimum specific conductivity and Mn concentration shows highest {sup 210}Po concentration of 64 mBqL{sup -1}. The Mn concentration influences the presence of {sup 210}Po in water in comparison to Fe. (authors)

  15. Global rainfall erosivity assessment based on high-temporal resolution rainfall records. (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Yu, Bofu; Klik, Andreas; Jae Lim, Kyoung; Yang, Jae E; Ni, Jinren; Miao, Chiyuan; Chattopadhyay, Nabansu; Sadeghi, Seyed Hamidreza; Hazbavi, Zeinab; Zabihi, Mohsen; Larionov, Gennady A; Krasnov, Sergey F; Gorobets, Andrey V; Levi, Yoav; Erpul, Gunay; Birkel, Christian; Hoyos, Natalia; Naipal, Victoria; Oliveira, Paulo Tarso S; Bonilla, Carlos A; Meddi, Mohamed; Nel, Werner; Al Dashti, Hassan; Boni, Martino; Diodato, Nazzareno; Van Oost, Kristof; Nearing, Mark; Ballabio, Cristiano


    The exposure of the Earth's surface to the energetic input of rainfall is one of the key factors controlling water erosion. While water erosion is identified as the most serious cause of soil degradation globally, global patterns of rainfall erosivity remain poorly quantified and estimates have large uncertainties. This hampers the implementation of effective soil degradation mitigation and restoration strategies. Quantifying rainfall erosivity is challenging as it requires high temporal resolution(<30 min) and high fidelity rainfall recordings. We present the results of an extensive global data collection effort whereby we estimated rainfall erosivity for 3,625 stations covering 63 countries. This first ever Global Rainfall Erosivity Database was used to develop a global erosivity map at 30 arc-seconds(~1 km) based on a Gaussian Process Regression(GPR). Globally, the mean rainfall erosivity was estimated to be 2,190 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1, with the highest values in South America and the Caribbean countries, Central east Africa and South east Asia. The lowest values are mainly found in Canada, the Russian Federation, Northern Europe, Northern Africa and the Middle East. The tropical climate zone has the highest mean rainfall erosivity followed by the temperate whereas the lowest mean was estimated in the cold climate zone.

  16. Satellite-based high-resolution mapping of rainfall over southern Africa (United States)

    Meyer, Hanna; Drönner, Johannes; Nauss, Thomas


    A spatially explicit mapping of rainfall is necessary for southern Africa for eco-climatological studies or nowcasting but accurate estimates are still a challenging task. This study presents a method to estimate hourly rainfall based on data from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). Rainfall measurements from about 350 weather stations from 2010-2014 served as ground truth for calibration and validation. SEVIRI and weather station data were used to train neural networks that allowed the estimation of rainfall area and rainfall quantities over all times of the day. The results revealed that 60 % of recorded rainfall events were correctly classified by the model (probability of detection, POD). However, the false alarm ratio (FAR) was high (0.80), leading to a Heidke skill score (HSS) of 0.18. Estimated hourly rainfall quantities were estimated with an average hourly correlation of ρ = 0. 33 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.72. The correlation increased with temporal aggregation to 0.52 (daily), 0.67 (weekly) and 0.71 (monthly). The main weakness was the overestimation of rainfall events. The model results were compared to the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Despite being a comparably simple approach, the presented MSG-based rainfall retrieval outperformed GPM IMERG in terms of rainfall area detection: GPM IMERG had a considerably lower POD. The HSS was not significantly different compared to the MSG-based retrieval due to a lower FAR of GPM IMERG. There were no further significant differences between the MSG-based retrieval and GPM IMERG in terms of correlation with the observed rainfall quantities. The MSG-based retrieval, however, provides rainfall in a higher spatial resolution. Though estimating rainfall from satellite data remains challenging, especially at high temporal resolutions, this study showed promising results

  17. High-resolution studies of rainfall on Norfolk Island. Part II: Interpolation of rainfall data (United States)

    Dirks, K. N.; Hay, J. E.; Stow, C. D.; Harris, D.


    Four spatial interpolation methods are compared using rainfall data from a network of thirteen rain gauges on Norfolk Island (area 35 km 2). The purpose is to obtain spatially continuous rainfall estimates across the island, from point measurements and for different integration times, by the most effective means. The more computationally demanding method of kriging provided no significant improvement over any of the much simpler inverse-distance, Thiessen, or areal-mean methods. In order to assimilate some of the characteristics of spatially varying rainfall, and based on the comparisons performed, the inverse-distance method is recommended for interpolations using spatially dense networks.

  18. Implementing a spinosad-based local bait station to control Bactrocera cucurbitae (Diptera: Tephritidae) in high rainfall areas of Reunion Island. (United States)

    Delpoux, Camille; Deguine, Jean-Philippe


    Three species of fruit flies cause serious damage to cucurbit crops on Reunion Island: Bactrocera cucurbitae (Diptera: Tephritidae) (Coquillett 1899), Dacus ciliatus (Loew 1901), and Dacus demmerezi (Bezzi 1917). To control them, a program of agroecological management of cucurbit flies has been implemented based on the application of Synéis-appât, especially spot sprays on corn borders. However, the high rainfall on Reunion Island limits the long-term efficiency of the bait; in addition, this method cannot be used for large chayote trellises, because corn borders cannot be planted around them. The aim of this study was to design a bait station adapted to prevailing conditions on Reunion Island. An 'umbrella trap' tested in Taiwan was used as a reference to compare its efficacy with our local bait station. Experiments were conducted in field cages on B. cucurbitae to test different characteristics of bait stations and to construct one using local materials. Results were validated in the field. The attractiveness of the bait station was related mainly to the color of the external surface, yellow being the most attractive color. The efficacy of the bait station with respect to fly mortality was found to be linked to the accessibility of the bait, and direct application of Synéis-appât on the bait station was found to be the most efficient. In the field, B. cucurbitae were more attracted to the local bait station than to the umbrella trap, while the two other fly species displayed equal attraction to both trap types. Our local bait station is a useful alternative to spot sprays of Synéis-appât and is now included in a local pest management program and is well accepted by farmers. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

  19. Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas - A review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cristiano, E.; ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; van de Giesen, N.C.


    In urban areas, hydrological processes are characterized by high variability in space and time, making them sensitive to small-scale temporal and spatial rainfall variability. In the last decades new instruments, techniques, and methods have been developed to capture rainfall and hydrological

  20. The Impact of Climate Change in Rainfall Erosivity Index on Humid Mudstone Area (United States)

    Yang, Ci-Jian; Lin, Jiun-Chuan


    It has been quite often pointed out in many relevant studies that climate change may result in negative impacts on soil erosion. Then, humid mudstone area is highly susceptible to climate change. Taiwan has extreme erosion in badland area, with annual precipitation over 2000 mm/y which is a considerably 3 times higher than other badland areas around the world, and with around 9-13 cm/y in denudation rate. This is the reason why the Erren River, a badland dominated basin has the highest mean sediment yield in the world, over 105 t km2 y. This study aims to know how the climate change would affect soil erosion from the source in the Erren River catchment. Firstly, the data of hourly precipitation from 1992 to 2016 are used to establish the regression between rainfall erosivity index (R, one of component for USLE) and precipitation. Secondly, using the 10 climate change models (provide form IPCC AR5) simulates the changes of monthly precipitation in different scenario from 2017 to 2216, and then over 200 years prediction R values can be use to describe the tendency of soil erosion in the future. The results show that (1) the relationship between rainfall erosion index and precipitation has high correction (>0.85) during 1992-2016. (2) From 2017 to 2216, 7 scenarios show that annual rainfall erosion index will increase over 2-18%. In contrast, the others will decrease over 7-14%. Overall, the variations of annual rainfall erosion index fall in the range of -14 to 18%, but it is important to pay attention to the variation of annual rainfall erosion index in extreme years. These fall in the range of -34 to 239%. This explains the extremity of soil erosion will occur easily in the future. Keywords: Climate Change, Mudstone, Rainfall Erosivity Index, IPCC AR5

  1. On Rainfall Modification by Major Urban Areas. Part 1; Observations from Space-borne Rain Radar Aboard TRMM (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshell; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)


    A novel approach is introduced to correlating urbanization and rainfall modification. This study represents one of the first published attempts (possibly the first) to identify and quantify rainfall modification by urban areas using satellite-based rainfall measurements. Previous investigations successfully used rain gauge networks and around-based radar to investigate this phenomenon but still encountered difficulties due to limited, specialized measurements and separation of topographic and other influences. Three years of mean monthly rainfall rates derived from the first space-based rainfall radar, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar, are employed. Analysis of data at half-degree latitude resolution enables identification of rainfall patterns around major metropolitan areas of Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas during the warm season. Preliminary results reveal an average increase of 5.6% in monthly rainfall rates (relative to a mean upwind CONTROL area) over the metropolis but an average increase of approx. 28%, in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis. Some portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates found in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind CONTROL area by 48%-116% and were generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. These results are quite consistent studies of St. Louis (e.g' METROMEX) and Chicago almost two decades ago and more recent studies in the Atlanta and Mexico City areas.

  2. On Rainfall Modification by Major Urban Areas. Part 1; Observations from Space-borne Rain Radar on TRMM (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Pierce, Harold; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)


    This study represents one of the first published attempts to identify rainfall modification by urban areas using satellite-based rainfall measurements. Data from the first space-based rain-radar, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar, are employed. Analysis of the data enables identification of rainfall patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas during the warm season. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage chances are relative to an upwind CONTROL area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area can exceed the mean value in the upwind CONTROL area by 48%-116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. These results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work will investi(yate hypothesized factors causing rainfall modification by urban areas. Additional work is also needed to provide more robust validation of space-based rain estimates near major urban areas. Such research has implications for urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment.

  3. Rainfall interception by two arboreal species in urban green area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luzia Ferreira da Silva


    Full Text Available Rainfall interception by the two most usual species in forest urban spaces was analysed by measuring of interception (I or interception losses, through fall (Th, stem flow (St and gross precipitation (Pg. The chosen species were Caesalpinia pluviosa DC. (Fabaceae: Caesalpinoideae or sibipiruna, and Tipuana tipu O. Kuntze (Fabaceae: Faboideae or tipuana. The individuals analysed were more than 50 years old, with three separate individuals and three individuals in each studied group of species at the campus of ”Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture (University of Sao Paulo, Piracicaba. The experiments were carried out from January to February 2007. Water was collected using seven-litre pails, in the edges and in the centre of the canopies. A high correlation of Th with Pg was observed on the centre of the crow of tipuana and by the edges of sibipiruna. St and I had low correlation with Pg for both species. The average of rain interception was greater in the edges of the crow of sibipiruna individuals, 60.6%, and in the centre of tipuana crow, 59.40%. Thus, both species intercepted up to 60% of the water rainfall, which indicates a great potential of both species for arborisation in urban environments.

  4. Potential of deterministic and geostatistical rainfall interpolation under high rainfall variability and dry spells: case of Kenya's Central Highlands (United States)

    Kisaka, M. Oscar; Mucheru-Muna, M.; Ngetich, F. K.; Mugwe, J.; Mugendi, D.; Mairura, F.; Shisanya, C.; Makokha, G. L.


    Drier parts of Kenya's Central Highlands endure persistent crop failure and declining agricultural productivity. These have, in part, attributed to high temperatures, prolonged dry spells and erratic rainfall. Understanding spatial-temporal variability of climatic indices such as rainfall at seasonal level is critical for optimal rain-fed agricultural productivity and natural resource management in the study area. However, the predominant setbacks in analysing hydro-meteorological events are occasioned by either lack, inadequate, or inconsistent meteorological data. Like in most other places, the sole sources of climatic data in the study region are scarce and only limited to single stations, yet with persistent missing/unrecorded data making their utilization a challenge. This study examined seasonal anomalies and variability in rainfall, drought occurrence and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in the drier regions of eastern Kenyan. Rainfall data from five stations (Machang'a, Kiritiri, Kiambere and Kindaruma and Embu) were sourced from both the Kenya Meteorology Department and on-site primary recording. Owing to some experimental work ongoing, automated recording for primary dailies in Machang'a have been ongoing since the year 2000 to date; thus, Machang'a was treated as reference (for period of record) station for selection of other stations in the region. The other stations had data sets of over 15 years with missing data of less than 10 % as required by the world meteorological organization whose quality check is subject to the Centre for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) through MeteoSwiss and EMPA bodies. The dailies were also subjected to homogeneity testing to evaluate whether they came from the same population. Rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance and probability were utilized in the analyses of rainfall variability. Spline, kriging and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhian Dharma Prayuda


    Full Text Available Rainfall has temporal and spatial characteristics with certain pattern which are affected by topographic variations and climatology of an area. The intensity of extreme rainfall is one of important characteristics related to the trigger factors for debris flow. This research will discuss the result of analysis on short duration rainfall data in the south and west slope of Mt. Merapi. Measured hourly rainfall data in 14 rainfall stations for the last 27 years were used as analysis input. The rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationship (IDF was derived using empirical formula of Sherman, Kimijima, Haspers, and Mononobe method. The analysis on the characteristics of extreme rainfall intensity was performed by conducting spatial interpolation using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW method. Result of analysis shows that IDF of rainfall in the research area fits to Sherman’s formula. Besides, the spatial distribution pattern of maximum rainfall intensity was assessed on the basis of area rainfall. Furthermore, the difference on the result of spatial map for one hour extreme rainfall based on isolated event and non-isolated event method can be evaluated. The result of this preliminary research is expected to be inputs in the establishment of debris flow early warning in Mt. Merapi slope area.

  6. Topological Data Analysis of High-Resolution Temporal Rainfall (United States)

    Carsteanu, Alin Andrei; Fernández Méndez, Félix; Vásquez Aguilar, Raciel


    This study applies topological data analysis (TDA) to the state space representations of high-resolution temporal rainfall intensity data from Iowa City (IIHR, U of Iowa). Using a sufficient embedding dimension, topological properties of the underlying manifold are depicted.

  7. Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Retroactive forecasts are produced for lead times of up to 5 months and probabilistic forecast performances evaluated for extreme rainfall thresholds of the 25th and 75th percentile values of the climatological record. The verification of the retroactive forecasts shows that rainfall over the catchment is predictable at extended ...

  8. Satellite-based high-resolution mapping of rainfall over southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Meyer


    Full Text Available A spatially explicit mapping of rainfall is necessary for southern Africa for eco-climatological studies or nowcasting but accurate estimates are still a challenging task. This study presents a method to estimate hourly rainfall based on data from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI. Rainfall measurements from about 350 weather stations from 2010–2014 served as ground truth for calibration and validation. SEVIRI and weather station data were used to train neural networks that allowed the estimation of rainfall area and rainfall quantities over all times of the day. The results revealed that 60 % of recorded rainfall events were correctly classified by the model (probability of detection, POD. However, the false alarm ratio (FAR was high (0.80, leading to a Heidke skill score (HSS of 0.18. Estimated hourly rainfall quantities were estimated with an average hourly correlation of ρ = 0. 33 and a root mean square error (RMSE of 0.72. The correlation increased with temporal aggregation to 0.52 (daily, 0.67 (weekly and 0.71 (monthly. The main weakness was the overestimation of rainfall events. The model results were compared to the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM mission. Despite being a comparably simple approach, the presented MSG-based rainfall retrieval outperformed GPM IMERG in terms of rainfall area detection: GPM IMERG had a considerably lower POD. The HSS was not significantly different compared to the MSG-based retrieval due to a lower FAR of GPM IMERG. There were no further significant differences between the MSG-based retrieval and GPM IMERG in terms of correlation with the observed rainfall quantities. The MSG-based retrieval, however, provides rainfall in a higher spatial resolution. Though estimating rainfall from satellite data remains challenging, especially at high temporal resolutions, this study showed

  9. Applications of high resolution rainfall radar data to quantify water temperature dynamics in urban catchments (United States)

    Croghan, Danny; Van Loon, Anne; Bradley, Chris; Sadler, Jon; Hannnah, David


    question the validity of using station based data for small scale studies, particularly in urban areas, with high variation apparent in rainfall intensity both spatially and temporally. Variation was particularly high within the heavily urbanised catchment. For water quality studies, high resolution rainfall radar can be implemented to increase the reliability of interpretations of the response of water quality variables to storm water inputs in urban catchments.

  10. High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate. (United States)

    Thompson, Vikki; Dunstone, Nick J; Scaife, Adam A; Smith, Doug M; Slingo, Julia M; Brown, Simon; Belcher, Stephen E


    In winter 2013/14 a succession of storms hit the UK leading to record rainfall and flooding in many regions including south east England. In the Thames river valley there was widespread flooding, with clean-up costs of over £1 billion. There was no observational precedent for this level of rainfall. Here we present analysis of a large ensemble of high-resolution initialised climate simulations to show that this event could have been anticipated, and that in the current climate there remains a high chance of exceeding the observed record monthly rainfall totals in many regions of the UK. In south east England there is a 7% chance of exceeding the current rainfall record in at least one month in any given winter. Expanding our analysis to some other regions of England and Wales the risk increases to a 34% chance of breaking a regional record somewhere each winter.A succession of storms during the 2013-2014 winter led to record flooding in the UK. Here, the authors use high-resolution climate simulations to show that this event could have been anticipated and that there remains a high chance of exceeding observed record monthly rainfall totals in many parts of the UK.

  11. Characterization of space-time rainfall patterns over Switzerland based on high-resolution radar images (United States)

    Benoit, Lionel; Mariethoz, Gregoire; Vrac, Mathieu


    Rainfall is generated by diverse and complex processes that produce rain fields with a large variability of patterns. High-resolution measurements of rainfall, provided for instance by networks of terrestrial weather radars, allow observing the spatial variability of rainfall patterns and its temporal evolution. The characterization of these space-time rainfall patterns is important for both the understanding of rain generation processes and the study of environmental impacts of rainfall on hydrology, erosion or plants growth, among others. Here we propose to study rainfall patterns using image processing methods on high-resolution radar images (1km x 1km x 1min) over Switzerland. The time series of radar images is first segmented in rain events. Then, the spatial structure of each rain event is characterized by computing statistics over several geometrical indices extracted from radar images, by adapting to the context of mid-latitude rainfalls the indices proposed by Aghakouchak, Nasrollahi et al. (2011) and Zick and Matyas (2016) for tropical rainfall characterization. Finally, the dynamics of rainfall patterns is characterized by estimating rain advection through image correlation, and by quantifying the temporal morphing of spatial patterns in a Lagrangian reference frame, where radar images are re-projected to cancel out rain advection. Two years of data (2015 - 2016) are used to investigate the variability of rainfall patterns over Switzerland. Typical values of the indicators measuring rainfall patterns and their dynamics are extracted for different areas, namely the Jura Mountain, the Swiss Plateau and the Alps. These measures of rainfall variability could be subsequently used to parameterize local weather generators or to investigate the relationships between rainfall patterns and atmospheric synoptic conditions. References: Aghakouchak, A., N. Nasrollahi, J. Li, B. Imam and S. Sorooshian (2011). "Geometrical Characterization of Precipitation Patterns

  12. Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Oct 24, 2013 ... southern part of southern Africa have been linked to SST vari- ations in the ... was to open, almost immediately, all of the spillway gates of. Cahora Bassa that ... The rainfall data used for downscaling and verification was the ...

  13. Analysis of shallow landslides and soil erosion induced by rainfall over large areas (United States)

    Cuomo, Sabatino; Della Sala, Maria


    soil initial suction. On the other hand, the source areas for erosion phenomena depend on rainfall characteristics and soil cover, with simulated eroded areas larger in autumn season. In addition, for a past event, the simulated source areas of shallow landslides are smaller than those observed in the field while the simulated eroded areas with thickness greater than 5 cm are comparable with the in-situ evidences if the analysis takes into account high rainfall intensity and a spatially variable soil cover use, thus providing a consistent interpretation of the event. References Acharya, G., Cochrane, T., Davies, T., Bowman, E. (2011). Quantifying and modeling postfailure sediment yields from laboratory-scale soil erosion and shallow landslide experiments with silty loess. Geomorphology 129, 49-58. Cascini L., Cuomo S., Della Sala M. (2011). Spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides of flow type: A case of Sarno-Quindici, Italy. Geomorphology, 126(1-2), 148-158. Cascini, L., Sorbino, G., Cuomo, S., Ferlisi, S. (2013). Seasonal effects of rainfall on the shallow pyroclastic deposits of the Campania region (southern Italy). Landslides, 1-14, DOI: 10.1007/s10346-013-0395-3. Cuomo S., Della Sala M. (2013). Spatially distributed analysis of shallow landslides and soil erosion induced by rainfall. (submitted to Natural Hazards). Fell, R., Corominas J., Bonnard, C., Cascini, L., Leroi E., Savage, W.Z., on behalf of the JTC-1 Joint Technical Committee on Landslides and Engineered Slopes (2008). Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land use planning. Engineering Geolology, 102(3-4):85-98. Merritt, W.S., Latcher, R.A., Jakeman, A.J. (2003). A review of erosion and sediment transport models. Environmental Modelling and Software 18, 761- 799. Sorbino G., Sica C., Cascini L. (2010). Susceptibility analysis of shallow landslides source areas using physically based models. Natural Hazards, 53(2), 313-332.

  14. Variability of rainfall over Lake Kariba catchment area in the Zambezi river basin, Zimbabwe (United States)

    Muchuru, Shepherd; Botai, Joel O.; Botai, Christina M.; Landman, Willem A.; Adeola, Abiodun M.


    In this study, average monthly and annual rainfall totals recorded for the period 1970 to 2010 from a network of 13 stations across the Lake Kariba catchment area of the Zambezi river basin were analyzed in order to characterize the spatial-temporal variability of rainfall across the catchment area. In the analysis, the data were subjected to intervention and homogeneity analysis using the Cumulative Summation (CUSUM) technique and step change analysis using rank-sum test. Furthermore, rainfall variability was characterized by trend analysis using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistic. Additionally, the rainfall series were decomposed and the spectral characteristics derived using Cross Wavelet Transform (CWT) and Wavelet Coherence (WC) analysis. The advantage of using the wavelet-based parameters is that they vary in time and can therefore be used to quantitatively detect time-scale-dependent correlations and phase shifts between rainfall time series at various localized time-frequency scales. The annual and seasonal rainfall series were homogeneous and demonstrated no apparent significant shifts. According to the inhomogeneity classification, the rainfall series recorded across the Lake Kariba catchment area belonged to category A (useful) and B (doubtful), i.e., there were zero to one and two absolute tests rejecting the null hypothesis (at 5 % significance level), respectively. Lastly, the long-term variability of the rainfall series across the Lake Kariba catchment area exhibited non-significant positive and negative trends with coherent oscillatory modes that are constantly locked in phase in the Morlet wavelet space.

  15. Flexible Strategies for Coping with Rainfall Variability: Seasonal Adjustments in Cropped Area in the Ganges Basin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Siderius

    Full Text Available One of the main manifestations of climate change will be increased rainfall variability. How to deal with this in agriculture will be a major societal challenge. In this paper we explore flexibility in land use, through deliberate seasonal adjustments in cropped area, as a specific strategy for coping with rainfall variability. Such adjustments are not incorporated in hydro-meteorological crop models commonly used for food security analyses. Our paper contributes to the literature by making a comprehensive model assessment of inter-annual variability in crop production, including both variations in crop yield and cropped area. The Ganges basin is used as a case study. First, we assessed the contribution of cropped area variability to overall variability in rice and wheat production by applying hierarchical partitioning on time-series of agricultural statistics. We then introduced cropped area as an endogenous decision variable in a hydro-economic optimization model (WaterWise, coupled to a hydrology-vegetation model (LPJmL, and analyzed to what extent its performance in the estimation of inter-annual variability in crop production improved. From the statistics, we found that in the period 1999-2009 seasonal adjustment in cropped area can explain almost 50% of variability in wheat production and 40% of variability in rice production in the Indian part of the Ganges basin. Our improved model was well capable of mimicking existing variability at different spatial aggregation levels, especially for wheat. The value of flexibility, i.e. the foregone costs of choosing not to crop in years when water is scarce, was quantified at 4% of gross margin of wheat in the Indian part of the Ganges basin and as high as 34% of gross margin of wheat in the drought-prone state of Rajasthan. We argue that flexibility in land use is an important coping strategy to rainfall variability in water stressed regions.

  16. Unexpected high losses of Anopheles gambiae larvae due to rainfall.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krijn P Paaijmans

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Immature stages of the malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae experience high mortality, but its cause is poorly understood. Here we study the impact of rainfall, one of the abiotic factors to which the immatures are frequently exposed, on their mortality. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We show that rainfall significantly affected larval mosquitoes by flushing them out of their aquatic habitat and killing them. Outdoor experiments under natural conditions in Kenya revealed that the additional nightly loss of larvae caused by rainfall was on average 17.5% for the youngest (L1 larvae and 4.8% for the oldest (L4 larvae; an additional 10.5% (increase from 0.9 to 11.4% of the L1 larvae and 3.3% (from 0.1 to 3.4% of the L4 larvae were flushed away and larval mortality increased by 6.9% (from 4.6 to 11.5% and 1.5% (from 4.1 to 5.6% for L1 and L4 larvae, respectively, compared to nights without rain. On rainy nights, 1.3% and 0.7% of L1 and L4 larvae, respectively, were lost due to ejection from the breeding site. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates that immature populations of malaria mosquitoes suffer high losses during rainfall events. As these populations are likely to experience several rain showers during their lifespan, rainfall will have a profound effect on the productivity of mosquito breeding sites and, as a result, on the transmission of malaria. These findings are discussed in the light of malaria risk and changing rainfall patterns in response to climate change.

  17. Simulation of High Impact Rainfall Events Over Southeastern Hilly Region of Bangladesh Using MM5 Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Ahasan


    Full Text Available Simulation of high impact rainfall events over southeastern hilly region of Bangladesh has been carried out using Fifth-Generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5 conducting two historical rainfall events, namely, 21 June, 2004 and 11 July, 2004. These extraordinary rainfall events were localized over the Rangamati region and recorded 304 mm and 337 mm rainfall on 21 June, 2004 and 11 July, 2004, respectively, over Rangamati within a span of 24 h. The model performance was evaluated by examining the different predicted and derived parameters. It is found that the seasonal monsoon trough has northerly position compared to normal and pass through Bangladesh extending up to northeast India for both cases. The heat low was found to be intense (996 hPa with strong north-south pressure gradient (12–15 hPa. The analysis of the geopotential height field at 200 hPa shows that the Tibetan high is shifted towards south by 7-8° latitudes with axis along 22–25°N for both cases. The analysis of the wind field shows that the areas of high impact rainfall exhibit strong convergence of low level monsoon circulation (~19–58 knots. The strong southwesterlies were found to exist up to 500 hPa level in both cases. The lower troposphere (925–500 hPa was characterized by the strong vertical wind shear (~9–18 ms−1 and high relative vorticity (~20–40 × 10−5 s−1. The analysis also shows that the areas of high impact rainfall events and neighbourhoods are characterized by strong low level convergence and upper level divergence. The strong southwesterly flow causes transportation of large amount of moisture from the Bay of Bengal towards Bangladesh, especially over the areas of Rangamati and neighbourhoods. The high percentage of relative humidity extends up to the upper troposphere along a narrow vertical column. Model produced details structure of the spatial patterns of rainfall over Bangladesh reasonably well though there are some


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guellouh SAMI


    Full Text Available Statistical estimation of rainfall associated with extreme events is of major interest for hydrologists in terms of risk prevention. Comprehending the spatial distribution of extreme rainfalls that cover the entire catchment area, the impluvium, of Batna, requires as a first step a frequency analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall time series with the application of empirical distributions, namely the GEV distribution, the Gumbel distribution and the log-normal distribution. This has allowed us to estimate the quantiles of extreme rainfall with return periods of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years for ten rainfall stations. Subsequently, this has allowed us to map the quantiles matching the centennial return period using three types of interpolations.

  19. Influence of meteorological variables on rainfall partitioning for deciduous and coniferous tree species in urban area (United States)

    Zabret, Katarina; Rakovec, Jože; Šraj, Mojca


    Rainfall partitioning is an important part of the ecohydrological cycle, influenced by numerous variables. Rainfall partitioning for pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) and birch (Betula pendula Roth.) trees was measured from January 2014 to June 2017 in an urban area of Ljubljana, Slovenia. 180 events from more than three years of observations were analyzed, focusing on 13 meteorological variables, including the number of raindrops, their diameter, and velocity. Regression tree and boosted regression tree analyses were performed to evaluate the influence of the variables on rainfall interception loss, throughfall, and stemflow in different phenoseasons. The amount of rainfall was recognized as the most influential variable, followed by rainfall intensity and the number of raindrops. Higher rainfall amount, intensity, and the number of drops decreased percentage of rainfall interception loss. Rainfall amount and intensity were the most influential on interception loss by birch and pine trees during the leafed and leafless periods, respectively. Lower wind speed was found to increase throughfall, whereas wind direction had no significant influence. Consideration of drop size spectrum properties proved to be important, since the number of drops, drop diameter, and median volume diameter were often recognized as important influential variables.

  20. Changes of rainfall extremes around the haor basin areas of Bangladesh using multi-member ensemble RCM (United States)

    Nowreen, Sara; Murshed, Sonia Binte; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful; Bhaskaran, B.; Hasan, Mohammad Alfi


    Haors are large, round-shaped floodplain depressions located in the North-Eastern region of Bangladesh. Extreme events such as heavy rainfall routinely affect the haor basin with flash floods. These haors are predicted to experience severe stress because of changes in rainfall and temperature patterns. The biotic community of the wetlands may not have enough time to adjust itself in such varying temperature and rainfall extremes. This paper evaluates various aspects of the future projections of rainfall and temperature extremes, including magnitudes and frequencies thereof. The impacts of extreme events are examined using Hadley Centre's high-resolution regional climate model known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies). Daily temperature and rainfall simulations of the 17-member ensembles are generated through Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3). These simulations are used in Rclimdex—a software specially designed for this study. A total of 12 core climate indices are computed, analyzed, and statistically examined (Mann-Whitney U test) over the space of three time slices—(1) short (2020s, i.e., 2011-2040), (2) medium (2050s, i.e., 2041-2070), and (3) long (2080s, i.e., 2071-2098). Here, the 1980s (1971-2000) are considered as the baseline period. The study has found that the highest significant variability in both rainfalls and temperatures was during the pre-monsoon season when flash floods normally occur. Also, rainy days are projected to be less frequent albeit more intense where the deeply flooded haors are located. Though the annual total rainfall does not show any difference in spatial distribution (except for in magnitude), the seasonal patterns of most extreme events show that the probable affected areas have shifted from North-east to further North. In addition, a significant increase in both RX1 (1-day maximum rainfall) and RX5 (5-day maximum rainfall) are projected during the 2080's pre-monsoon season near Sunamganj. This

  1. Observations of Heavy Rainfall in a Post Wildland Fire Area Using X-Band Polarimetric Radar (United States)

    Cifelli, R.; Matrosov, S. Y.; Gochis, D. J.; Kennedy, P.; Moody, J. A.


    Polarimetric X-band radar systems have been used increasingly over the last decade for rainfall measurements. Since X-band radar systems are generally less costly, more mobile, and have narrower beam widths (for same antenna sizes) than those operating at lower frequencies (e.g., C and S-bands), they can be used for the "gap-filling" purposes for the areas when high resolution rainfall measurements are needed and existing operational radars systems lack adequate coverage and/or resolution for accurate quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). The main drawback of X-band systems is attenuation of radar signals, which is significantly stronger compared to frequencies used by "traditional" precipitation radars operating at lower frequencies. The use of different correction schemes based on polarimetric data can, to a certain degree, overcome this drawback when attenuation does not cause total signal extinction. This presentation will focus on examining the use of high-resolution data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) mobile X-band dual polarimetric radar for the purpose of estimating precipitation in a post-wildland fire area. The NOAA radar was deployed in the summer of 2011 to examine the impact of gap-fill radar on QPE and the resulting hydrologic response during heavy rain events in the Colorado Front Range in collaboration with colleagues from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Colorado State University (CSU), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). A network of rain gauges installed by NCAR, the Denver Urban Drainage Flood Control District (UDFCD), and the USGS are used to compare with the radar estimates. Supplemental data from NEXRAD and the CSU-CHILL dual polarimetric radar are also used to compare with the NOAA X-band and rain gauges. It will be shown that rainfall rates and accumulations estimated from specific differential phase measurements (KDP) at X-band are in good agreement with the measurements from the gauge

  2. Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas – a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Cristiano


    Full Text Available In urban areas, hydrological processes are characterized by high variability in space and time, making them sensitive to small-scale temporal and spatial rainfall variability. In the last decades new instruments, techniques, and methods have been developed to capture rainfall and hydrological processes at high resolution. Weather radars have been introduced to estimate high spatial and temporal rainfall variability. At the same time, new models have been proposed to reproduce hydrological response, based on small-scale representation of urban catchment spatial variability. Despite these efforts, interactions between rainfall variability, catchment heterogeneity, and hydrological response remain poorly understood. This paper presents a review of our current understanding of hydrological processes in urban environments as reported in the literature, focusing on their spatial and temporal variability aspects. We review recent findings on the effects of rainfall variability on hydrological response and identify gaps where knowledge needs to be further developed to improve our understanding of and capability to predict urban hydrological response.

  3. Recent changes in rainfall characteristics and their influence on thresholds for debris flow triggering in the Dolomitic area of Cortina d'Ampezzo, north-eastern Italian Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Floris


    Full Text Available In this paper, we examine variations in climate characteristics near the area of Cortina d'Ampezzo (Dolomites, Eastern Italian Alps, with particular reference to the possible implications for debris-flow occurrence. The study area is prone to debris-flow release in response to summer high-intensity short-duration rainfalls and, therefore, it is of the utmost importance to investigate the potential increase in debris-flow triggering rainfall events. The critical rainfall threshold is agreed to be a crucial triggering factor for debris-flows. Data from a monitoring system, placed in a catchment near Cortina (Acquabona, show that debris-flows were triggered by rainfalls with peak rainfall intensities ranging from 4.9 to 17.4 mm/10 min.

    The analyses of meteorological data, collected from 1921 to 1994 at several stations in the study area, show a negative trend of annual rainfall, a considerable variation in the monthly rainfall distribution, and an increase in the temperature range, possibly related to global climate changes. Moreover, high-intensity and short-duration rainfall events, derived from data collected from 1990 and 2008, show an increase in exceptional rainfall events. The results obtained in a peak-over-threshold framework, applied to the rainfall data measured at the Faloria rain gauge station from 1990 to 2008, clearly show that the interarrival time of over-threshold events computed for different threshold values decreased in the last decade. This suggests that local climatic changes might produce an increase in the frequency of rainfall events, potentially triggering debris flows in the study area.


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, C.


    The objective of the study was to evaluate rainfall and water table elevation data in search of a correlation that could be used to understand and predict water elevation changes. This information will be useful in placing screen zones for future monitoring wells and operations of groundwater treatment units. Fifteen wells in the General Separations Area (GSA) at Savannah River Site were evaluated from 1986 through 2001. The study revealed that the water table does respond to rainfall with minimal delay. (Water level information was available monthly, which restricted the ability to evaluate a shorter delay period.) Water elevations were found to be related to the cumulative sum (Q-Delta Sum) of the difference between the average rainfall for a specific month and the actual rainfall for that month, calculated from an arbitrary starting point. Water table elevations could also be correlated between wells, but using the right well for correlation was very important. The strongest correlation utilized a quadratic equation that takes into account the rainfall in a specific area and the rainfall from an adjacent area that contributes through a horizontal flow. Specific values vary from well to well as a result of geometry and underground variations. R2's for the best models ranged up to 0.96. The data in the report references only GSA wells but other wells (including confined water tables) on the site have been observed to return similar water level fluctuation patterns.

  5. Abrupt changes in rainfall in the Eastern area of La Pampa Province, Argentina (United States)

    Pérez, S.; Sierra, E.; López, E.; Nizzero, G.; Momo, F.; Massobrio, M.


    The eastern area of La Pampa Province, Argentina, lies in a transition zone between the humid temperate climate stretching east and the steppe climate stretching west. The area is thus very sensitive to abrupt changes in rainfall. In order to determine the long-term occurrence of such phenomena, long-term annual precipitation series (1921-2004) from 17 stations in the study area were analyzed using the Buishand and Pettitt tests. Results showed a sharp increase in annual rainfall at the southern stations in the 1960s and at the northern and central stations in the 1970s. Increased rainfall can be considered one of the reasons for the subsequent expansion in land planted to crops in the region. While a rapid increase in rainfall can be seen as positive, some researchers believe that if an abrupt decrease in rainfall occurred in future and continued for long, the carrying capacity of the environment could be exceeded, leading to decreased production and environmental degradation.

  6. Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Oct 24, 2013 ... 1Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa. 2Council for ... ABSTRACT. The Lake Kariba catchment area in southern Africa has one of the most variable climates of any major river basin, with ...... and a Southern Hemisphere semi-annual cycle.

  7. Flexible strategies for coping with rainfall variability : seasonal adjustments in cropped area in the Ganges basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siderius, C.; Biemans, H.J.A.; Walsum, van P.E.V.; Ierland, van E.C.; Hellegers, P.J.G.J.


    One of the main manifestations of climate change is expected to be increased rainfall variability. How to deal with this in agriculture will be a major societal challenge. In this paper we explore flexibility in land use, through deliberate seasonal adjustments in cropped area, as a specific

  8. A Regional Stable Carbon Isotope Dendro-Climatology from the South African Summer Rainfall Area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephan Woodborne

    Full Text Available Carbon isotope analysis of four baobab (Adansonia digitata L. trees from the Pafuri region of South Africa yielded a 1000-year proxy rainfall record. The Pafuri record age model was based on 17 radiocarbon dates, cross correlation of the climate record, and ring structures that were presumed to be annual for two of the trees. Here we present the analysis of five additional baobabs from the Mapungubwe region, approximately 200km west of Pafuri. The Mapungubwe chronology demonstrates that ring structures are not necessarily annually formed, and accordingly the Pafuri chronology is revised. Changes in intrinsic water-use efficiency indicate an active response by the trees to elevated atmospheric CO2, but this has little effect on the environmental signal. The revised Pafuri record, and the new Mapungubwe record correlate significantly with local rainfall. Both records confirm that the Medieval Warm Period was substantially wetter than present, and the Little Ice Age was the driest period in the last 1000 years. Although Mapungubwe is generally drier than Pafuri, both regions experience elevated rainfall peaking between AD 1570 and AD 1620 after which dry conditions persist in the Mapungubwe area until about AD 1840. Differences between the two records correlate with Agulhas Current sea-surface temperature variations suggesting east/west displacement of the temperate tropical trough system as an underlying mechanism. The Pafuri and Mapungubwe records are combined to provide a regional climate proxy record for the northern summer rainfall area of southern Africa.

  9. A Regional Stable Carbon Isotope Dendro-Climatology from the South African Summer Rainfall Area. (United States)

    Woodborne, Stephan; Gandiwa, Patience; Hall, Grant; Patrut, Adrian; Finch, Jemma


    Carbon isotope analysis of four baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) trees from the Pafuri region of South Africa yielded a 1000-year proxy rainfall record. The Pafuri record age model was based on 17 radiocarbon dates, cross correlation of the climate record, and ring structures that were presumed to be annual for two of the trees. Here we present the analysis of five additional baobabs from the Mapungubwe region, approximately 200km west of Pafuri. The Mapungubwe chronology demonstrates that ring structures are not necessarily annually formed, and accordingly the Pafuri chronology is revised. Changes in intrinsic water-use efficiency indicate an active response by the trees to elevated atmospheric CO2, but this has little effect on the environmental signal. The revised Pafuri record, and the new Mapungubwe record correlate significantly with local rainfall. Both records confirm that the Medieval Warm Period was substantially wetter than present, and the Little Ice Age was the driest period in the last 1000 years. Although Mapungubwe is generally drier than Pafuri, both regions experience elevated rainfall peaking between AD 1570 and AD 1620 after which dry conditions persist in the Mapungubwe area until about AD 1840. Differences between the two records correlate with Agulhas Current sea-surface temperature variations suggesting east/west displacement of the temperate tropical trough system as an underlying mechanism. The Pafuri and Mapungubwe records are combined to provide a regional climate proxy record for the northern summer rainfall area of southern Africa.

  10. Multifractal analysis of radar rainfall fields over the area of Rome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Calenda


    Full Text Available A scale-invariance analysis of space and time rainfall events monitored by meteorological radar over the area of Rome (Italy is proposed. The study of the scale-invariance properties of intense precipitation storms, particularly important in flood forecast and risk mitigation, allows to transfer rainfall information from the large scale predictive meteorological models to the small scale hydrological rainfall-runoff models. Precipitation events are monitored using data collected by the polarimetric Doppler radar Polar 55C (ISAC-CNR, located 15 km Southeast from downtown. The meteorological radar provides the estimates of rainfall intensity over an area of about 10 000 km2 at a resolution of 2×2 km2 in space and 5 min in time. Many precipitation events have been observed from autumn 2001 up to now. A scale-invariance analysis is performed on some of these events with the aim at exploring the multifractal properties and at understanding their dependence on the meteorological large-scale conditions.

  11. Rainfall intensity characteristics at coastal and high altitude stations ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This could be an indication of the relative prevalence of stratiform and cumuliform clouds.Rainfall was of intensity > 5 mm/hr for more than 95%of the time in Kochi in July 2002,which was a month seriously deficient in rainfall,indicating that the deficiency was probably due to the relative absence of cumuliform clouds.

  12. The estimation of convective rainfall by area integrals. I - The theoretical and empirical basis. II - The height-area rainfall threshold (HART) method (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Daniel; Short, David A.; Atlas, David


    A theory is developed which establishes the basis for the use of rainfall areas within present thresholds as a measure of either the instantaneous areawide rain rate of convective storms or the total volume of rain from an individual storm over its lifetime. The method is based upon the existence of a well-behaved pdf of rain rate either from the many storms at one instant or from a single storm during its life. The generality of the instantaneous areawide method was examined by applying it to quantitative radar data sets from the GARP Tropical Atlantic Experiment for South Africa, Texas, and Darwin (Australia). It is shown that the pdf's developed for each of these areas are consistent with the theory.

  13. Evaluation of QPE for the Rainfall-Runoff Analysis in Urban Area (United States)

    Choi, Sumin; Son, Along; Yoon, Seong-sim; Lee, Byungjoo; Choi, Youngjean


    The occurrence of local torrential rainfall has been increased. The local torrential rainfall resulted huge casualties and property damage from 2010 to 2012 in Seoul, Korea. Especially, the southern areas (Gangnam area) of Seoul incurred huge damages due to flash floods that occurred on September 21, 2010 and July 27, 2011. In this study, runoff analysis was performed focus on a significant area around Gangnam Station. For these, five drainage basins near Gangnam Station including one each in Nonhyun, Yeoksam and Seocho 3, 4, 5 were selected as target areas. The areas of these basins are 1.8 km2, 1.9 km2, 1.8 km2, 1.1 km2 and 0.8 km2, respectively. The drainage system of these basins consists of 4,170 manholes and total 200,698 km-length of pipelines. To obtain input data for runoff analysis, the Seoul drainage network map was used. In total, 773 manholes, 1,059 pipes, and 772 sub-catchments were used for the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) as input data. The average area of sub-catchments was 0.01 km2. The average slope, calculated by using 5-m resolution DEM (Digital Elevation Model), was 1.801%. Also, CN (Curve Numbers) and impervious ratio were determined by using the Seoul Biotope Map, and the distribution were 47~95 and 10.6~100%, respectively. This analysis was performed for six rainfall events that occurred on July 2, 4, 12~14, 15, 22, and 23, 2013. There are two AWS (Automatic Weather Station) around this area, however, QPE rain fields were used to consider spatial distribution of local rainfall. Rainfall input data was constructed by MAP (Mean Areal Precipitation) for each sub-catchments estimated by using four types of QPE rain fields. The four QPEs were determined by 190 AWS data and radar data in Seoul, and the QPEs have 10min/250m resolution. To calibrate and evaluate the analysis, water depth data in manhole were collected for July 2013. There are six water depth gauge in the study area, three of them were used for the calibration and evaluation

  14. Rainfall variability and its impact on large mammal populations in a complex of semi-arid African savanna protected areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gandiwa, Edson; Heitkönig, I.M.A.; Eilers, Paul H.C.; Prins, Herbert H.T.


    We investigated the rainfall patterns and associated fluctuations of wild large herbivore species in the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area (GLTFCA), southern Africa. The study objectives were to: (i) establish the synchrony in rainfall and drought occurrence patterns in Gonarezhou

  15. Urban Flooding Analysis Using Radar Rainfall Data and 2-D Hydrodynamic Model: A Pilot Study of Back Cover Area, Portland, Maine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan, Eugene [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Pierce, Julia [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Mahat, Vinod [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Jared, Alissa [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Collis, Scott [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Verner, Duane [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wall, Thomas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)


    This project is a part of the Regional Resiliency Assessment Program, led by the Department of Homeland Security, to address flooding hazards of regional significance for Portland, Maine. The pilot study was performed by Argonne National Laboratory to identify differences in spatial rainfall distributions between the radar-derived and rain-gauge rainfall datasets and to evaluate their impacts on urban flooding. The flooding impact analysis utilized a high-resolution 2-dimensional (2-D) hydrodynamic model (15 ft by 15 ft) incorporating the buildings, streets, stream channels, hydraulic structures, an existing city storm drain system, and assuming a storm surge along the coast coincident with a heavy rainfall event. Two historical storm events from April 16, 2007, and September 29, 2015, were selected for evaluation. The radar-derived rainfall data at a 200-m resolution provide spatially-varied rainfall patterns with a wide range of intensities for each event. The resultant maximum flood depth using data from a single rain gauge within the study area could be off (either under- or over-estimated) by more than 10% in the 2007 storm and more than 60% in the 2015 storm compared to the radar-derived rainfall data. The model results also suggest that the inundation area with a flow depth at or greater than 0.5 ft could reach 11% (2007 storm) and 17% (2015 storm) of the total study area, respectively. The lowland areas within the neighborhoods of North Deering, East Deering, East and West Baysides and northeastern Parkside, appear to be more vulnerable to the flood hazard in both storm events. The high-resolution 2-D hydrodynamic model with high-resolution radar-derived rainfall data provides an excellent tool for detailed urban flood analysis and vulnerability assessment. The model developed in this study could be potentially used to evaluate any proposed mitigation measures and optimize their effects in the future for Portland, ME.

  16. Analyses of the temporal and spatial structures of heavy rainfall from a catalog of high-resolution radar rainfall fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Smith, James A.; Baeck, Mary Lynn


    that relate to size, structure and evolution of heavy rainfall. Extreme rainfall is also linked with severe weather (tornados, large hail and damaging wind). The diurnal cycle of rainfall for heavy rain days is characterized by an early peak in the largest rainfall rates, an afternoon-evening peak in rain...

  17. Transport of sediments, carbon and nutrients in areas of reforestation and grassland based on simulated rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adilson Pinheiro


    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to evaluate the soil losses, as well as carbon and chemical samples in runoff through areas of pine (Pinus taeda, eucalyptus (Eucalyptus dunni and a consortium of pasture with oat (Avena stringosa and ryegrass (Lolium multiflorium in the Fragosos river basin, in Concordia, SC. For this, rainfall simulations with mean intensities of 94 mm h-1 were conducted in September and November 2011, in plots of 1 m2 established in the three areas. Runoff, loads carried of the sediment, and carbon and chemical concentrations were quantified in the experiment. The results showed that the concentrations of sediment and organic carbon were higher in the eucalyptus area. The largest concentrations of chemicals for all areas were nitrate, calcium, magnesium and potassium. Total carbon, organic carbon, sediment and nitrate were transported in higher loads in the eucalyptus area. With the exception of nitrate and chloride, the chemical loads carried were higher in the pasture area.

  18. Rainfall Characteristics and Regionalization in Peninsular Malaysia Based on a High Resolution Gridded Data Set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chee Loong Wong


    Full Text Available Daily gridded rainfall data over Peninsular Malaysia are delineated using an objective clustering algorithm, with the objective of classifying rainfall grids into groups of homogeneous regions based on the similarity of the rainfall annual cycles. It has been demonstrated that Peninsular Malaysia can be statistically delineated into eight distinct rainfall regions. This delineation is closely associated with the topographic and geographic characteristics. The variation of rainfall over the Peninsula is generally characterized by bimodal variations with two peaks, i.e., a primary peak occurring during the autumn transitional period and a secondary peak during the spring transitional period. The east coast zones, however, showed a single peak during the northeast monsoon (NEM. The influence of NEM is stronger compared to the southwest monsoon (SWM. Significantly increasing rainfall trends at 95% confidence level are not observed in all regions during the NEM, with exception of northwest zone (R1 and coastal band of west coast interior region (R3. During SWM, most areas have become drier over the last three decades. The study identifies higher variation of mean monthly rainfall over the east coast regions, but spatially, the rainfall is uniformly distributed. For the southwestern coast and west coast regions, a larger range of coefficients of variation is mostly obtained during the NEM, and to a smaller extent during the SWM. The inland region received least rainfall in February, but showed the largest spatial variation. The relationship between rainfall and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO was examined based on the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI. Although the concurrent relationships between rainfall in the different regions and ENSO are generally weak with negative correlations, the rainfall shows stronger positive correlation with preceding ENSO signals with a time lag of four to eight months.

  19. Rainfall can explain adaptive phenotypic variation with high gene flow in the New Holland Honeyeater (Phylidonyris novaehollandiae). (United States)

    Myers, Steven A; Donnellan, Stephen; Kleindorfer, Sonia


    Identifying environmentally driven changes in traits that serve an ecological function is essential for predicting evolutionary outcomes of climate change. We examined population genetic structure, sex-specific dispersal patterns, and morphology in relation to rainfall patterns across an island and three peninsulas in South Australia. The study system was the New Holland Honeyeater (Phylidonyris novaehollandiae), a nectarivorous passerine that is a key pollinator species. We predicted that rainfall-related mechanisms would be driving local adaptation of morphological traits, such that in areas of lower rainfall, where nectar is less available, more insectivorous traits - shorter, deeper bills, longer tarsi, and longer wings - would be favored. The study populations differed in phenotype across the Eyre, Yorke, and Fleurieu Peninsulas and Kangaroo Island despite high gene flow (single continuous population) and sex-biased dispersal (males were philopatric and females dispersed). We tested the role of rainfall in shaping the observed phenotypic differences, and found strong support for our predicted relationships: birds in areas of higher rainfall had higher condition indices, as well as longer bill-head length, deeper bills, and shorter tarsi. Bill depth in males in high-rainfall sites showed signals of stabilizing selection, suggesting local adaptation. In addition to these local indications of selection, a global pattern of directional selection toward larger size for bill-head length, bill-nostril length, and wing length was also observed. We suggest this pattern may reflect an adaptive response to the relatively dry conditions that South Australia has experienced over the last decade. We conclude that rainfall has shaped aspects of phenology in P. novaehollandiae, both locally, with different patterns of stabilizing and directional selection, and globally, with evidence of adaptive divergence at a landscape scale.

  20. Simple Method for Assessing Spread of Flood Prone Areas under Historical and Future Rainfall in the Upper Citarum Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bambang Dwi Dasanto


    Full Text Available From 1931 to 2010 the flood frequency in Upper Citarum Watershed had increased sharply indicating the decline of the wateshed quality. With the change of climate, risk of the flood may get worse. This study aims to determine effective rainfall that caused flooding and to evaluate the impact of future rainfall changes on the flood prone areas. Effective rainfall which contributes to direct runoff (DRO and leads to flooding was determined using regression equation relating the DRO and cumulative rainfall of a number of consecutive days. Mapping the flood prone areas was developed using the GIS techniques. Results showed that the effective rainfall which caused flooding was the rainfall accumulation for four consecutive days before occurrence of peak of DRO. The percentage of accuracy between estimated and actual flood maps was about 76.9%. According to historical rainfall, the flood prone areas spreaded at right and left directions of the Upstream Citarum River. If this area experiences the climate change, the frequency and flood extents will increase. This study can only identify locations and possibility of flood occurrence but it cannot demonstrate widespread of flood inundation precisely. However, this simple approach can evaluate the flood frequency and intensity quite well.

  1. Effects of rainfall and salinity increase on prevalence of vector mosquitoes in coastal areas of Alappuzha district, Kerala. (United States)

    Balasubramanian, R; Nikhil, T L


    Seasonal abundance patterns for Japanese encephalitis vectors along climatic variations were studied in the coastal areas of Alappuzha district from June 2012 to May 2013. A total of 10563 female mosquitoes belonging to eleven species were collected. Culex gelidusTheobald (50.04%), Cx. tritaeniorhynchus Giles (26.50%), and Cx. sitiens Wiedemann (7.55%) were found to be most common in these areas. Cx. sitiens females were collected from each sampling occasion from early monsoon season June to late summer May with a distinct peak in April at 7.18 electrical conductivity (EC). Cx. sitiens abundance increased rapidly when monthly salinity level consistently exceeded 7.76, occurring in March at 7.76 and April at 7.18 electrical conductivity (EC). While analyzing correlation of Cx. sitiens density with salinity and rainfall was significant. High density of Cx. gelidus was greatly influenced by total rainfall and it was found to be significantly correlated with Per Man Hour (PMH) (P areas may develop in to brackish and saline water populated by Cx. sitiens, which can be new vectors for Japanese encephalitis or West Nile virus in these areas.

  2. Interaction between Typhoon Vicente (1208) and the western Pacific subtropical high during the Beijing extreme rainfall of 21 July 2012 (United States)

    Wen, Yongren; Xue, Lin; Li, Ying; Wei, Na; Lü, Aimin


    The heaviest rainfall in recent six decades fell in Beijing on 21 July 2012, reaching a record of 460 mm within 18 h. This rainfall was a typical remote precipitation event related to Typhoon Vicente (1208). Observational analysis indicates that Vicente influenced distant heavy rainfall by transporting water vapor northward to the Beijing area. This moisture transport was mainly driven by the interaction between Vicente and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) associated with the formation of a low-level southeasterly moisture channel. A set of numerical sensitivity experiments were performed with prescribed typhoons of different intensities to investigate the interaction between Vicente and the WPSH and its effects on this rainstorm process. The results indicate that the WPSH interacting with typhoons of different intensities may exert varying degrees of influence on the development of a southeasterly moisture channel, resulting in a change in rain rate and location over the Beijing area. Specifically, in the presence of an enhanced typhoon, the WPSH shows remarkable withdrawal to the east, which is favorable for a northward extension of the southeasterly moisture channel, thereby increasing moisture supply for the rainstorm. The WPSH tends to stretch westward in a zonal pattern if the typhoon is weakened or removed, hindering the northward extension of the moisture channel. Thus, the rainfall area may be expected to expand or contract, with corresponding increases or decreases in rain rate over the Beijing area with a strengthened or weakened typhoon, respectively.

  3. Bias adjustment and advection interpolation of long-term high resolution radar rainfall series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Rasmussen, Michael R.


    this is known to depend on the changing drop size distribution of the specific rain. This creates a transient bias between the radar rainfall and the ground observations due to seasonal changes of the drop size distribution as well as other atmospheric effects and effects related to the radar observational...... technology. In this study different bias adjustment techniques is investigated, developing a complete 10-year dataset (2002–2012) of high spatio-temporal resolution radar rainfall based on a radar observations from a single C-band radar from Denmark. Results show that hourly adjustment mean field bias......It is generally acknowledged that in order to apply radar rainfall data for hydrological proposes adjustment against ground observations are crucial. Traditionally, radar reflectivity is transformed into rainfall rates applying a fixed reflectivity – rainfall rate relationship even though...

  4. Estimation of Areal Mean Rainfall in Remote Areas Using B-SHADE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Zhang


    Full Text Available This study presented a method to estimate areal mean rainfall (AMR using a Biased Sentinel Hospital Based Area Disease Estimation (B-SHADE model, together with biased rain gauge observations and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM data, for remote areas with a sparse and uneven distribution of rain gauges. Based on the B-SHADE model, the best linear unbiased estimation of AMR could be obtained. A case study was conducted for the Three-River Headwaters region in the Tibetan Plateau of China, and its performance was compared with traditional methods. The results indicated that B-SHADE obtained the least estimation biases, with a mean error and root mean square error of −0.63 and 3.48 mm, respectively. For the traditional methods including arithmetic average, Thiessen polygon, and ordinary kriging, the mean errors were 7.11, −1.43, and 2.89 mm, which were up to 1027.1%, 127.0%, and 358.3%, respectively, greater than for the B-SHADE model. The root mean square errors were 10.31, 4.02, and 6.27 mm, which were up to 196.1%, 15.5%, and 80.0%, respectively, higher than for the B-SHADE model. The proposed technique can be used to extend the AMR record to the presatellite observation period, when only the gauge data are available.

  5. Forecasting Rainfall Induced Landslide using High Resolution DEM and Simple Water Budget Model (United States)

    Luzon, P. K. D.; Lagmay, A. M. F. A.


    Philippines is hit by an average of 20 typhoons per year bringing large amount of rainfall. Monsoon carrying rain coming from the southwest of the country also contributes to the annual total rainfall that causes different hazards. Such is shallow landslide mainly triggered by high saturation of soil due to continuous downpour which could take up from hours to days. Recent event like this happened in Zambales province September of 2013 where torrential rain occurred for 24 hours amounting to half a month of rain. Rainfall intensity measured by the nearest weather station averaged to 21 mm/hr from 10 pm of 22 until 10 am the following day. The monsoon rains was intensified by the presence of Typhoon Usagi positioned north and heading northwest of the country. A number of landslides due to this happened in 3 different municipalities; Subic, San Marcelino and Castillejos. The disaster have taken 30 lives from the province. Monitoring these areas for the entire country is but a big challenge in all aspect of disaster preparedness and management. The approach of this paper is utilizing the available forecast of rainfall amount to monitor highly hazardous area during the rainy seasons and forecasting possible landslide that could happen. A simple water budget model following the equation Perct=Pt-R/Ot-∆STt-AETt (where as the terms are Percolation, Runoff, Change in Storage, and Actual Evapotraspiration) was implemented in quantifying all the water budget component. Computations are in Python scripted grid system utilizing the widely used GIS forms for easy transfer of data and faster calculation. Results of successive runs will let percolation and change in water storage as indicators of possible landslide.. This approach needs three primary sets of data; weather data, topographic data, and soil parameters. This research uses 5 m resolution DEM (IfSAR) to define the topography. Soil parameters are from fieldworks conducted. Weather data are from the Philippine

  6. Prediction of Experimental Rainfall-Eroded Soil Area Based on S-Shaped Growth Curve Model Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Nie


    Full Text Available Rainfall-induced soil erosion of a mountain area plays a significant role in supplying sediment and shaping the landscape. The related area of soil erosion, as an index of the changed landscape, is easier to calculate visually using some popular imaging tools. By image analysis, our work shows that the changing of the soil erosion area admits the structure of an S-growth curve. Therefore, we propose to establish an S-curve model, based on incremental learning, to predict the soil erosion area. In the process of incremental learning, we dynamically update the accumulative rainfall and rainfall intensity to train the parameters of our S-curve model. In order to verify our prediction model, the index of area is utilized to express the output of eroded soil in a series of experiments. The results show that the proposed S-growth curve model can be used to estimate the growth of the soil erosion area (average relative error 3%–9.7% according to variable soil material and rainfall intensity. The original S-growth curve model can calculate the erosion areas of just one soil material and one rainfall condition whose average relative error is 7.5%–12.2%; compared to the simple time series analysis-moving average method (average relative error 5.7%–12.1%, our proposed S-growth curve model can reveal the physical mechanism and evolution of the research object.

  7. Extreme rainfall events in karst environments: the case study of September 2014 in the Gargano area (southern Italy) (United States)

    Martinotti, Maria Elena; Pisano, Luca; Trabace, Maria; Marchesini, Ivan; Peruccacci, Silvia; Rossi, Mauro; Amoruso, Giuseppe; Loiacono, Pierluigi; Vennari, Carmela; Vessia, Giovanna; Parise, Mario; Brunetti, Maria Teresa


    In the first week of September 2014, the Gargano Promontory (Apulia, SE Italy) was hit by an extreme rainfall event that caused several landslides, floods and sinkholes. As a consequence of the floods, two people lost their lives and severe socio-economic damages were reported. The highest peaks of rainfall were recorded between September 3rd and 6th at the Cagnano Varano and San Marco in Lamis rain gauges with a maximum daily rainfall (over 230 mm) that is about 30% the mean annual rainfall. The Gargano Promontory is characterized by complex orographic conditions, with the highest elevation of about 1000 m a.s.l. The geological setting consists of different types of carbonate deposits affected by intensive development of karst processes. The morphological and climatic settings of the area, associated with frequent extreme rainfall events can cause various types of geohazards (e.g., landslides, floods, sinkholes). A further element enhancing the natural predisposition of the area to the occurrence of landslides, floods and sinkholes is an intense human activity, characterized by an inappropriate land use and management. In order to obtain consistent and reliable data on the effects produced by the storm, a systematic collection of information through field observations, a critical analysis of newspaper articles and web-news, and a co-operation with the Regional Civil Protection and local geologists started immediately after the event. The information collected has been organized in a database including the location, the occurrence time and the type of geohazard documented with photographs. The September 2014 extreme rainfall event in the Gargano Promontory was also analyzed to validate the forecasts issued by the Italian national early-warning system for rainfall-induced landslides (SANF), developed by the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection (IRPI) for the Italian national Department for Civil Protection (DPC). SANF compares rainfall measurements and

  8. Sediment reallocations due to erosive rainfall events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, Central China (United States)

    Stumpf, Felix; Goebes, Philipp; Schmidt, Karsten; Schindewolf, Marcus; Schönbrodt-Stitt, Sarah; Wadoux, Alexandre; Xiang, Wei; Scholten, Thomas


    Soil erosion by water outlines a major threat to the Three Gorges Reservoir Area in China. A detailed assessment of soil conservation measures requires a tool that spatially identifies sediment reallocations due to rainfall-runoff events in catchments. We applied EROSION 3D as a physically based soil erosion and deposition model in a small mountainous catchment. Generally, we aim to provide a methodological frame that facilitates the model parametrization in a data scarce environment and to identify sediment sources and deposits. We used digital soil mapping techniques to generate spatially distributed soil property information for parametrization. For model calibration and validation, we continuously monitored the catchment on rainfall, runoff and sediment yield for a period of 12 months. The model performed well for large events (sediment yield>1 Mg) with an averaged individual model error of 7.5%, while small events showed an average error of 36.2%. We focused on the large events to evaluate reallocation patterns. Erosion occurred in 11.1% of the study area with an average erosion rate of 49.9Mgha 1. Erosion mainly occurred on crop rotation areas with a spatial proportion of 69.2% for 'corn-rapeseed' and 69.1% for 'potato-cabbage'. Deposition occurred on 11.0%. Forested areas (9.7%), infrastructure (41.0%), cropland (corn-rapeseed: 13.6%, potatocabbage: 11.3%) and grassland (18.4%) were affected by deposition. Because the vast majority of annual sediment yields (80.3%) were associated to a few large erosive events, the modelling approach provides a useful tool to spatially assess soil erosion control and conservation measures.

  9. Integrating X-MP radar data to estimate rainfall induced debris flow in the Merapi volcanic area (United States)

    Syarifuddin, Magfira; Oishi, Satoru; Legono, Djoko; Hapsari, Ratih Indri; Iguchi, Masato


    After the 2010 eruption, more than 50 volcanic debris flow (lahar) events occurred during the rainy season of 2010-2011 at Mount Merapi, Indonesia. The lahars occurred following rainfall of severe intensity in the upstream area, where remaining volcanic material was deposited. Estimation of rainfall-induced lahars at Mt. Merapi is difficult and uncertain because the upstream area is dangerous and inaccessible. On 17 February 2016, a lahar occurred in the upstream region of the Gendol River on the southeastern flank of Mt. Merapi after a maximum rainfall intensity of 69 mm/h was monitored on the peak of Mt. Merapi by X-band multi-parameter (X-MP) radar. In this study, rainfall intensity estimates from X-MP radar were applied to generate boundary discharge of a numerical model of debris flow at the catchment scale. The numerical simulation was able to estimate volcanic debris flow occurrence and magnitude. The reliability of radar-rainfall data and the effects of the sabo dam on reducing the impacts of lahar disaster were also examined. The numerical lahar simulation showed relevant results that were comparable to the real condition. The closed type sabo dam caused more than 50% lahar sediment decrement and a flow delay time of 40 min. However, the sediment accumulation has caused increasing flow velocity and higher erosion rate in the 2D area. This study demonstrated the effectiveness of remote monitoring of rainfall combined with numerical debris flow modeling for applied practical use in disaster management.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available The maximum amounts of rainfall are usually characterized by high intensity, and their effects on the substrate are revealed, at slope level, by the deepening of the existing forms of torrential erosion and also by the formation of new ones, and by landslide processes. For the 1971-2000 period, for the weather stations in the hilly area of Cluj County: Cluj- Napoca, Dej, Huedin and Turda the highest values of rainfall amounts fallen in 24, 48 and 72 hours were analyzed and extracted, based on which the variation and the spatial and temporal distribution of the precipitation were analyzed. The annual probability of exceedance of maximum rainfall amounts fallen in short time intervals (24, 48 and 72 hours, based on thresholds and class values was determined, using climatological practices and the Hyfran program facilities.

  11. High-Resolution Discharge Forecasting for Snowmelt and Rainfall Mixed Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Berezowski


    Full Text Available Discharge events induced by mixture of snowmelt and rainfall are strongly nonlinear due to consequences of rain-on-snow phenomena and snowmelt dependence on energy balance. However, they received relatively little attention, especially in high-resolution discharge forecasting. In this study, we use Random Forests models for 24 h discharge forecasting in 1 h resolution in a 105.9 km 2 urbanized catchment in NE Poland: Biala River. The forcing data are delivered by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model in 1 h temporal and 4 × 4 km spatial resolutions. The discharge forecasting models are set in two scenarios with snowmelt and rainfall and rainfall only predictors in order to highlight the effect of snowmelt on the results (both scenarios use also pre-forecast discharge based predictors. We show that inclusion of snowmelt decrease the forecast errors for longer forecasts’ lead times. Moreover, importance of discharge based predictors is higher in the rainfall only models then in the snowmelt and rainfall models. We conclude that the role of snowmelt for discharge forecasting in mixed snowmelt and rainfall environments is in accounting for nonlinear physical processes, such as initial wetting and rain on snow, which cannot be properly modelled by rainfall only.

  12. High surface area calcite (United States)

    Schultz, L. N.; Andersson, M. P.; Dalby, K. N.; Müter, D.; Okhrimenko, D. V.; Fordsmand, H.; Stipp, S. L. S.


    Calcite (CaCO3) is important in many fields—in nature, because it is a component of aquifers, oil reservoirs and prospective CO2 storage sites, and in industry, where it is used in products as diverse as paper, toothpaste, paint, plastic and aspirin. It is difficult to obtain high purity calcite with a high surface area but such material is necessary for industrial applications and for fundamental calcite research. Commercial powder is nearly always contaminated with growth inhibitors such as sugars, citrate or pectin and most laboratory synthesis methods deliver large precipitates, often containing vaterite or aragonite. To address this problem, we (i) adapted the method of carbonating a Ca(OH)2 slurry with CO2 gas to develop the first simple, cheap, safe and reproducible procedure using common laboratory equipment, to obtain calcite that reproducibly had a surface area of 14-17 m2/g and (ii) conducted a thorough characterization of the product. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) revealed nanometer scale, rhombohedral crystals. X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and infrared spectroscopy (IR) confirmed highly crystalline, pure calcite that more closely resembles the dimensions of the biogenic calcite produced by algae in coccoliths than other methods for synthesizing calcite. We suggest that this calcite is useful when purity and high surface area are important.

  13. Trends and variability of East African rainfall and its relationship to the Mascarene High pressure system (United States)

    Seregina, Larisa; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Fink, Andreas H.; Ermert, Volker


    In the recent decades, East Africa needs to deal with strong fluctuations in seasonal rainfall including precipitation extremes. In context of climate change, such extremes can become more frequent in the future. However, regional climate projections are uncertain about the future development of seasonal precipitation in the region. Rainfall regimes over East Africa are influenced by multiple factors, including two monsoon systems, several convergence zones and the Rift Valley lakes. In addition, local conditions, like topography, modulate the large-scale rainfall pattern. East African rainfall variability is also influenced by various teleconnections like the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The study of past climate variability in East Africa requires sufficient observational data coverage in the region. As East Africa does not have a dense observational network of meteorological stations, satellite rainfall observations gain on importance in studies on climate variability in the region. The specific aim of the present study is the analysis of historic data from weather stations in East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Ruanda and Uganda), the use of gridded satellite products, and three-dimensional atmospheric reanalysis (e.g., ERA-Interim) to quantify climate variability in the recent past and to understand its causes. Climate variability and trends, including changes in extreme events, are evaluated using ETCCDI climate change and standardized precipitation indices. These climate indices are determined in order to investigate the variability of rainfall and its trends with the focus on recent decades. For seasonal trend analysis, an independent and non-calendaric rainfall onset criterion is introduced. In the follow-up, statistical and dynamical analyses are conducted to quantify the local impact of Mascarene High as a part of the Subtropical High Pressure Ridge on East African seasonal rainfall. Possible connections to pertinent large

  14. Depth-area-duration characteristics of storm rainfall in Texas using Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimates (United States)

    McEnery, J. A.; Jitkajornwanich, K.


    This presentation will describe the methodology and overall system development by which a benchmark dataset of precipitation information has been used to characterize the depth-area-duration relations in heavy rain storms occurring over regions of Texas. Over the past two years project investigators along with the National Weather Service (NWS) West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC) have developed and operated a gateway data system to ingest, store, and disseminate NWS multi-sensor precipitation estimates (MPE). As a pilot project of the Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS) initiative, this testbed uses a Standard Query Language (SQL) server to maintain a full archive of current and historic MPE values within the WGRFC service area. These time series values are made available for public access as web services in the standard WaterML format. Having this volume of information maintained in a comprehensive database now allows the use of relational analysis capabilities within SQL to leverage these multi-sensor precipitation values and produce a valuable derivative product. The area of focus for this study is North Texas and will utilize values that originated from the West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC); one of three River Forecast Centers currently represented in the holdings of this data system. Over the past two decades, NEXRAD radar has dramatically improved the ability to record rainfall. The resulting hourly MPE values, distributed over an approximate 4 km by 4 km grid, are considered by the NWS to be the "best estimate" of rainfall. The data server provides an accepted standard interface for internet access to the largest time-series dataset of NEXRAD based MPE values ever assembled. An automated script has been written to search and extract storms over the 18 year period of record from the contents of this massive historical precipitation database. Not only can it extract site-specific storms, but also duration-specific storms and

  15. High resolution modeling in urban hydrology: comparison between two modeling approaches and their sensitivity to high rainfall variability (United States)

    Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Bompard, Philippe; Schertzer, Daniel


    Urban water management is becoming increasingly complex, due to the rapid increase of impervious areas, and the potential effects of climate change. The large amount of water generated in a very short period of time and the limited capacity of sewer systems increase the vulnerability of urban environments to flooding risk and make it necessary to implement specific devices in order to handle the volume of water generated. This complex situation in urban environments makes the use of hydrological models as well as the implementation of more accurate and reliable tools for flow and rainfall measurements essential for a good pluvial network management, the use of decision support tools such as real-time radar forecasting system, the developpement of general public communication and warning systems, and the implementation of management strategy participate on limiting the flood damages. The very high spatial variability characteristic of urban environments makes it necessary to integrate the variability of physical properties and precipitation at fine scales in modeling processes, suggesting a high resolution modeling approach. In this paper we suggest a comparison between two modeling approaches and their sensitivity to small-scale rainfall variability on a 2.15 km2 urban area located in the County of Val-de-Marne (South-East of Paris, France). The first model used in this study is CANOE, which is a semi-distributed model widely used in France by practitioners for urban hydrology and urban water management. Two configurations of this model are be used in this study, the first one integrate 9 sub-catchments with sizes range from (1ha to 76ha), in the second configuration, the spatial resolution of this model has been improved with 45 sub-catchments with sizes range from (1ha to 14ha), the aim is to see how the semi-distributed model resolution affects it sensitivity to rainfall variability. The second model is Multi-Hydro fully distributed model developed at the Ecole

  16. Generation of future high-resolution rainfall time series with a disaggregation model (United States)

    Müller, Hannes; Haberlandt, Uwe


    High-resolution rainfall data are needed in many fields of hydrology and water resources management. For analyzes of future rainfall condition climate scenarios exist with hourly values of rainfall. However, the direct usage of these data is associated with uncertainties which can be indicated by comparisons of observations and C20 control runs. An alternative is the derivation of changes of rainfall behavior over the time from climate simulations. Conclusions about future rainfall conditions can be drawn by adding these changes to observed time series. A multiplicative cascade model is used in this investigation for the disaggregation of daily rainfall amounts to hourly values. Model parameters can be estimated by REMO rainfall time series (UBA-, BfG- and ENS-realization), based on ECHAM5. Parameter estimation is carried out for C20 period as well as near term and long term future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100). Change factors for both future periods are derived by parameter comparisons and added to the parameters estimated from observed time series. This enables the generation of hourly rainfall time series from observed daily values with respect to future changes. The investigation is carried out for rain gauges in Lower Saxony. Generated Time series are analyzed regarding statistical characteristics, e.g. extreme values, event-based (wet spell duration and amounts, dry spell duration, …) and continuum characteristics (average intensity, fraction of dry intervals,…). The generation of the time series is validated by comparing the changes in the statistical characteristics from the REMO data and from the disaggregated data.

  17. The Effectiveness of Canopy Trees to Reduce Rainfall Acidity in the Industrial Area at Medan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyas Mutiara Basuki


    Full Text Available The term of acid rain is referred to the mean rainfall with a pH less than 5,65. The element of Sox and Nox are the major sources of aid rain. These two elements are oxidized into SO4 and NO3 respectively in the air. Sulfate and Nitrate are water soluble and the primary sources of hydrogen ions in acid precipitation. Rain passing through a tree canopy may lose or gain mineral elements trough some combination of natural process of absorption and leaching. By this process, the canopy may reduce rainfall acidity and negatif effects of the acid rain which will enter into the soil. Due to characteristic differences among tree canopies, a study to evaluate effectiveness of the trees in reducing rainfall acidity was done. In this study, rainfall and troughfall were collected every single rain and the pH measure by portable pH-meter. Based on data collection during 3 months in Medan Industrial Estate, it found that the mean pH of rainfall was 5,15. The highest pH of throughfall was found from Gnetum gnemon, that was 5,70; following by Mimusops elengi, Filicium decipiens, Acacia mangium, and the lowest was Nephelium lappacum. G. Gnemon was able to reduce 11% of rainfall acidity, but N. Lappacum caused 13% increasing rainfall acidity. In this study, the main source of rainfall acidity was hidrogen from sulfate acid (54%, following by chloride acid (30%, and nitrate acid (16%.

  18. [Monitoring and analysis on evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality in urban area]. (United States)

    Dong, Wen; Li, Huai-En; Li, Jia-Ke


    In order to find the water quality evolution law and pollution characteristics of the rainfall runoff from undisturbed to the neighborhood exit, 6 times evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality were monitored and analyzed from July to October in 2011, and contrasted the clarification efficiency of the grassland to the roof runoff rudimentarily at the same time. The research showed: 1. the results of the comparison from "undisturbed, rainfall-roof, rainfall runoff-road, rainfall-runoff the neighborhood exit runoff " showed that the water quality of the undisturbed rain was better than that from the roof and the neighborhood exist, but the road rainfall runoff water quality was the worst; 2. the average concentrations of the parameters such as COD, ammonia nitrogen and total nitrogen all exceeded the Fifth Class of the Surface Water Quality Standard except for the soluble total phosphorus from undisturbed rainfall to the neighborhood exit; 3. the runoff water quality of the short early fine days was better than that of long early fine days, and the last runoff water quality was better than that of the initial runoff in the same rainfall process; 4. the concentration reduction of the grassland was notable, and the reduction rate of the grassland which is 1.0 meter wide of the roof runoff pollutants such as COD and nitrogen reached 30%.

  19. Autocorrelation structure of convective rainfall in semiarid-arid climate derived from high-resolution X-Band radar estimates (United States)

    Marra, Francesco; Morin, Efrat


    Small scale rainfall variability is a key factor driving runoff response in fast responding systems, such as mountainous, urban and arid catchments. In this paper, the spatial-temporal autocorrelation structure of convective rainfall is derived with extremely high resolutions (60 m, 1 min) using estimates from an X-Band weather radar recently installed in a semiarid-arid area. The 2-dimensional spatial autocorrelation of convective rainfall fields and the temporal autocorrelation of point-wise and distributed rainfall fields are examined. The autocorrelation structures are characterized by spatial anisotropy, correlation distances 1.5-2.8 km and rarely exceeding 5 km, and time-correlation distances 1.8-6.4 min and rarely exceeding 10 min. The observed spatial variability is expected to negatively affect estimates from rain gauges and microwave links rather than satellite and C-/S-Band radars; conversely, the temporal variability is expected to negatively affect remote sensing estimates rather than rain gauges. The presented results provide quantitative information for stochastic weather generators, cloud-resolving models, dryland hydrologic and agricultural models, and multi-sensor merging techniques.

  20. A Partial Contributing Area Model for Linking Rainfall Simulation Data With Hydrographs of a Small Arid Watershed (United States)

    Ben-Asher, J.; Humborg, G.


    Four years of runoff measurement (29 events) in Kangussano, Mali, were analyzed on the basis of the partial area contribution concept. The study region is semiarid and the use of runoff water to satisfy crop of high importance. A first-order basin which included two flow channels draining an area of 1.14 106 ha (1.14 km2) was used for this purpose. The objective of this study was to develop and test a conceptual model to predict runoff on natural catchments of about this size. The model assumes that a basin is composed of a large number of pixels (satellite picture elements). Each pixel covers an area of 900 m2. The hydraulic properties of a representative pixel are determined by runoff simulation experiments. The model calculates the number of runoff generating pixels at a given time and rain depth. The areal runoff is a product of these two factors. Analysis of satellite images from LANDSAT and SPOT indicated similarities of soil cover complexes between the study area and an experimental area in Upper Volta. Results of runoff simulation from this area were adapted for the study area and used for the calculations. A good agreement between predicted and measured contributing area was obtained when the number of runoff generating pixels was 80 pixels/ram effective rain. Predicted and measured hydrographs were also in good agreement. It was therefore concluded that the model can satisfactorily predict actual hydrographs from data generated by rainfall-runoff simulators. Dividing the watershed to surface elements of pixel's size makes the model capable of linking remote sensing information with simulation data in order to predict areal runoff.

  1. Characterization of nested watershed hydrologic response from high-resolution rainfall and runoff data in the Baltimore Ecosystem Study LTER (United States)

    Miller, A. J.; Lindner, G. A.; Smith, J. A.; Baeck, M. L.; Welty, C.; Miller, J.; Meierdiercks, K. L.


    This presentation reports initial results from analysis of data collected at a set of six stream gages representing three nested watershed scales (1-2 km2, 5-6 km2, 14 km2) in Dead Run, a highly impervious suburban watershed in Baltimore County, MD, USA. Streamflow data collected at 5-minute temporal resolution during the period 2007-2011 are compared with 1-km2 gridded and watershed-average precipitation data with 15-minute temporal resolution provided by the HydroNEXRAD project for the Baltimore metropolitan area. The period of overlapping precipitation and runoff data currently available for all six nested watersheds includes calendar years 2008 and 2009. Analyses include mass balance for monthly time periods as well as individual storm events; comparison of hydrologic response among nested watersheds of similar scale and across scales; and characterization of spatial and temporal patterns in storm-period rainfall, drainage network structure, watershed morphometry, and urban infrastructure as potential influences on patterns of hydrologic response. We attempted to isolate the effects of watershed characteristics by selecting a subset of storm events with a rainfall "pulse" defined by minimum accumulation of ~10 mm and >80% of storm-total rainfall arriving within a one-hour period at all six nested subwatersheds. Hydrographs were compared to assess characteristic shape, runoff ratio, and timing. We also examined several longer, more complex storm events with multiple rainfall pulses in order to observe the response at multiple watershed scales. Despite the constraints imposed on storm structure we find that even slight variations in the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall may be associated with major differences in watershed response (volume and timing) at the 1-2 km2 and 5-6 km2 scales. Some of these variations would be difficult to explain without availability of high-resolution rainfall data. In multiple events we observe that the 5-6 km2 watersheds

  2. From rainfall to slope instability: an automatic GIS procedure for susceptibility analyses over wide areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bianca Federici


    Full Text Available The paper proposes an automatic procedure in geographic information system (GIS for the analysis and prediction of landslides due to rainfall events over wide areas. It runs, for each unit cell, a hydrological balance based on the Curve Number method (USDA-SCS 1985–1986, computing the evolution of groundwater as a result of precipitation and then checks the overcoming, or not, of limit equilibrium conditions of the land in the domain of interest. The mathematical model was implemented in the free and open source GIS GRASS. For any sequence of consecutive days of rain, according to the conditions of soil moisture prior to the time history under study, the hydro-geotechnical model allows (1 the determination of the oscillations of the phreatic table, (2 the part of saturated soil and (3 the slope stability analysis, by taking into proper account the pore pressures buildup. The results of this procedure are returned in raster format, allowing an easy and intuitive interpretation of the land mass sensitivity to meteoric actions. The suggested procedure was applied on an extensive kinematic phenomenon surrounding the city of Santo Stefano d’Aveto (Liguria, Italy. The realized maps of landslide susceptibility are in excellent agreement with what is evident on site.

  3. Multiscaling analysis of high resolution space-time lidar-rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. V. Mandapaka


    Full Text Available In this study, we report results from scaling analysis of 2.5 m spatial and 1 s temporal resolution lidar-rainfall data. The high resolution spatial and temporal data from the same observing system allows us to investigate the variability of rainfall at very small scales ranging from few meters to ~1 km in space and few seconds to ~30 min in time. The results suggest multiscaling behaviour in the lidar-rainfall with the scaling regime extending down to the resolution of the data. The results also indicate the existence of a space-time transformation of the form t~Lz at very small scales, where t is the time lag, L is the spatial averaging scale and z is the dynamic scaling exponent.

  4. Relationships between cloud-to-ground lightning and surface rainfall during 1992-1996 in the Spanish Basque Country area (United States)

    Ezcurra, A.; Areitio, J.; Herrero, I.

    The relationship between rainfall surface amounts and cloud-to-ground lightning stroke activity was studied during 1992-1996 in three locations in the Spanish Basque Country. In this area the surface distribution of ground strokes presents an average density of about 1 flash km -2 year -1 and the mean annual rain depth is about 10 3 mm. Most of the electrical storms analyzed (87%) were produced under two separate meteorological conditions: Oceanic and Continental. Continental events present the highest number of daily CG counts: counts that can reach values on the order of 5×10 3. Rainfall yield estimates during the periods researched were 23, 38, 21×10 4 m 3 per CG flash at the three locations used in this paper: Bilbao, San Sebastian and Vitoria, respectively. The rainfall yield was evaluated from the ratio between total precipitation collected at every station and total number of CG counts per unit of surface measured inside a pixel of 20×20 km 2 centred over the collecting points. It was observed that daily rainfall yield values present great disparity with standard deviation values of 122, 268 and 218×10 4 m 3 per CG flash for Bilbao, San Sebastian and Vitoria, respectively. Associated mean daily rainfall yield was 68, 136 and 120×10 4 m 3 per CG flash. These observations clearly indicate that daily rain depth and daily CG counts do not bear linear correlation. Rainfall yield in the Oceanic and Continental class present significant different mean values at the three locations and is always higher in Oceanic events. Likewise, rainfall yield in both situations—Oceanic and Continental—generally evolves during the year, reducing in value during the hot season, indicating that the environmental conditions of cloud formation could play a major role in the lightning-rainfall relationship. However; in two cases, Oceanic events in Bilbao during February and Continental events in Vitoria during July, rain depths and CG counts are correlated with r values of 0

  5. Spatial Variability of Rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, N.E.; Pedersen, Lisbeth


    As a part of a Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) calibration exercise 15 km south of Århus, Denmark, the variability in accumulated rainfall within a single radar pixel (500 by 500 m) was measured using nine high-resolution rain gauges. The measured values indicate up to a 100% variation between ne...

  6. The water budget of heterogeneous areas : impact of soil and rainfall variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kim, C.P.


    In this thesis the heterogeneity of the soil water budget components is investigated. Heterogeneity of soil hydraulic properties and rainfall rate are taken into account by using stochastic methods. The importance of lateral groundwater flow in causing heterogeneity of the water budget

  7. Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a Fully Distributed Model and High-resolution rainfall data (United States)

    Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire


    Nowadays, there is a growing interest on small-scale rainfall information, provided by weather radars, to be used in urban water management and decision-making. Therefore, an increasing interest is in parallel devoted to the development of fully distributed and grid-based models following the increase of computation capabilities, the availability of high-resolution GIS information needed for such models implementation. However, the choice of an appropriate implementation scale to integrate the catchment heterogeneity and the whole measured rainfall variability provided by High-resolution radar technologies still issues. This work proposes a two steps investigation of scale effects in urban hydrology and its effects on modeling works. In the first step fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependency observed within distributed data used to describe the catchment heterogeneity, both the structure of the sewer network and the distribution of impervious areas are analyzed. Then an intensive multi-scale modeling work is carried out to understand scaling effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations were conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model was implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 m to 5 m and modeling investigations were performed using both rain gauge rainfall information as well as high resolution X band radar data in order to assess the sensitivity of the model to small scale rainfall variability. Results coming out from this work demonstrate scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modeling. In fact, fractal concept highlights the scale dependency observed within distributed data used to implement hydrological models. Patterns of geophysical data change when we change the observation pixel size. The multi-scale modeling investigation performed with Multi-Hydro model at 17 spatial resolutions confirms scaling effect on hydrological model

  8. Effects of sample size on estimation of rainfall extremes at high temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Boessenkool


    Full Text Available High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius–Clapeyron (CC scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.

  9. Effects of sample size on estimation of rainfall extremes at high temperatures (United States)

    Boessenkool, Berry; Bürger, Gerd; Heistermann, Maik


    High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.

  10. Explorative analysis of long time series of very high resolution spatial rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomassen, Emma Dybro; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Scheibel, Marc


    variables a weather generator should employ. Both principal component analysis and cluster analysis show patterns that are in accordance with our understanding of physical properties of rainfall. In particular it seems that the differences between hourly and daily extremes can be described by relatively...... and daily extreme rainfall with the purpose of identifying suitable characteristics that can be used in a spatial weather generator of similar resolution. The spatial and temporal properties of the extreme events are explored by means of principal component analysis, cluster analysis, and linear models...... simple scaling across the set of variables, i.e. the level of each variable varies signicantly, but not the overall structure of the spatial precipitation. The analysis show that there is a good potential for making a spatial weather generator for high spatio-temporal precipitation for precipitation...

  11. Evapotranspiration from agricultural plant communities in the high rainfall zone of the southwest of Western Australia (United States)

    Scott, P. R.; Sudmeyer, R. A.


    The clearing of native vegetation and its replacement with shallow rooted, annual crops and pastures has resulted in rising groundwater levels and concentration of salts in the surface soils of resulting groundwater discharge areas in the southwest of Western Australia. The potential to manipulate the recharge rates to groundwaters by using agronomic techniques to change catchment evapotranspiration ( Et), has been the subject of much discussion. From 1986 to 1989, annual Et was estimated from daytime measurements of Et from annual pasture (existing pasture, subterranean clover, Medicago murex), crops (lupins, oats, rape, barley and wheat) and two perennial pastures (lucerne and phalaris) at a site near Collie in the southwest of Western Australia. The ventilated chamber technique was used to measure Et rates, together with ancillary measurements of above ground biomass and rooting depth. Seasonal values of Et are presented and combined to allow a boundary analysis of annual Et for each species. Et was found to be influenced by the amount and timing of biomass production, and by the rooting depth. The median annual evapotranspiration of annual pasture was shown to be the least (339 mm), and lupins the most (471 mm). The site environment combined high rainfall and low evaporative demand in winter, and low moisture-holding capacity of duplex soils with preferred pathways through subsoil clays. In this context, the potential of deeper rooted, perennial species to use more water, was apparent. It is argued that the smaller the difference in annual evapotranspiration between alternative and current agricultural practice (annual pasture), the larger the proportion of a catchment likely to be required for treatment to affect groundwater levels. Recharge manipulation alone, using the species tested, may not be sufficient for catchment salinity control. A wide range of other strategies exist; a combination of these, to suit the practical and economic constraints of the

  12. Geo-statistical model of Rainfall erosivity by using high temporal resolution precipitation data in Europe (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine


    Rainfall erosivity (R-factor) is among the 6 input factors in estimating soil erosion risk by using the empirical Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). R-factor is a driving force for soil erosion modelling and potentially can be used in flood risk assessments, landslides susceptibility, post-fire damage assessment, application of agricultural management practices and climate change modelling. The rainfall erosivity is extremely difficult to model at large scale (national, European) due to lack of high temporal resolution precipitation data which cover long-time series. In most cases, R-factor is estimated based on empirical equations which take into account precipitation volume. The Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) is the output of an extensive data collection of high resolution precipitation data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland taking place during 2013-2014 in collaboration with national meteorological/environmental services. Due to different temporal resolutions of the data (5, 10, 15, 30, 60 minutes), conversion equations have been applied in order to homogenise the database at 30-minutes interval. The 1,541 stations included in REDES have been interpolated using the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model using as covariates the climatic data (monthly precipitation, monthly temperature, wettest/driest month) from WorldClim Database, Digital Elevation Model and latitude/longitude. GPR has been selected among other candidate models (GAM, Regression Kriging) due the best performance both in cross validation (R2=0.63) and in fitting dataset (R2=0.72). The highest uncertainty has been noticed in North-western Scotland, North Sweden and Finland due to limited number of stations in REDES. Also, in highlands such as Alpine arch and Pyrenees the diversity of environmental features forced relatively high uncertainty. The rainfall erosivity map of Europe available at 500m resolution plus the standard error

  13. Arrowleaf Clover (Trifolium vesiculosum Savi: A New Species of Annual Legumes for High Rainfall Areas of the Mediterranean Climate Zone of Chile Trébol Vesiculoso (Trifolium vesiculosum Savi: Una Nueva Especie de Leguminosa Anual para Áreas de Alta Precipitación en la Zona Mediterránea de Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Ovalle M


    Full Text Available The present review examines the main attributes and agronomic characteristics of arrowleaf clover (Trifolium vesiculosum Savi and its incorporation into production systems in dryland areas of the Andean foothills of the humid Mediterranean climate zone of Chile. It is a new species of annual legume in Chile for light and medium textured soils. The root system can reach a depth of 1.5 m and its seeds have a high percentage of hardseedness (99.8%. It is an upright plant, with purplish-white flowers. The mature plant has large arrow-shaped leaves up to 50 mm long, often marked with a large white “V”. Dry matter and seed production in the Andean foothills is high (3.9-8.8 t DM ha-1 and 700-900 kg ha-1, respectively, surpassing the productivity of sub clover (Trifolium subterraneum L. cv. Mount Barker and crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum L.. However, DM production in the second year was lower, possibly because the high percentage of hardseedness inhibited plant emergence. The phenological records and productive performance suggest that arrowleaf clover could contribute to improving pastoral production in dryland areas with annual rainfall levels of more than 800 mm, such as the Andean foothills in the central-southern region of Chile.En la presente revisión se examinan los principales atributos y características agronómicas del trébol vesiculoso (Trifolium vesiculosum Savi y su eventual incorporación a sistemas de producción en la precordillera andina de la zona de clima mediterráneo húmedo de Chile. Se trata de una nueva especie de leguminosa forrajera anual para suelos de textura liviana y media. El sistema radical puede alcanzar 1,5 m de profundidad y las semillas tienen un alto porcentaje de dureza seminal (99,8%. Es una planta de crecimiento erecto, flores de color blanco con una leve coloración púrpura. Las plantas adultas tienen grandes hojas con forma de flecha de más de 50 mm de largo, a menudo muestran una marca blanca en

  14. The use of rainfall simulations to study the erodibility of post-mining reclaimed lands in hyper-arid areas in southern Israel (United States)

    Cohen Golan, Aya; Argaman, Eli; Ben-Hur, Meni; Laronne, Jonathan


    Disturbed landscapes, such as mining areas, appear to experience accelerated erosion rates in comparison to natural mature landscapes. This implies a difficulty of these landforms to reach equilibrium and allow the rehabilitation of bio-diversity. Despite previous studies of post-mining reclamation in other locations, still little is known about the behavior of such landscapes in hyper-arid climates. Our goal is to obtain initial data related to erosional processes in post-mining hillslopes in a hyper-arid environment by using rainfall simulations. Such new knowledge may serve to design reliable reclamation procedures that will satisfy erosional stability criteria. Rainfall simulator experiments were carried out under lab and field conditions in natural soils and in reclaimed post-mining lands in the hyper-arid region of 'Rotem Amfert Negev' phosphate plants in the Negev, Israel. The objectives were to examine infiltration rates and soil loss in disturbed material (>4mm aggregates from 0-20 cm soil layer) in lab conditions, and to examine runoff rates, runoff-rainfall relationships, and soil loss in small plots (0.8 m2) of undisturbed soils (in situ). In the Lab experiment, the effects of stone cover, slope gradient (9 and 15 degrees), and physical crust formation on infiltration, runoff, and soil loss were tested. Lab results show that final infiltration rates of the crusted materials from reclaimed and natural areas were ˜5 and ˜2 mm/h, respectively, regardless of stone cover or slope gradient. In contrast, final infiltration rates of the non-crusted materials were ˜20 and ˜5 mm/h, respectively, for reclaimed and natural materials. Soil loss amounts were higher for natural material regardless of rainfall simulation conditions. The lowest soil loss in the natural material was ˜32 [g / (m2 mm)], and, in comparison, the highest soil loss in the reclaimed material was ˜21 [g/(m2 mm)]. In the field, the runoff threshold was significantly higher in reclaimed

  15. Assessing the effect of biochar on erosion by using a high precision rainfall simulator (United States)

    Goldman, Nina; Mayer, Marius; Fister, Wolfgang


    Numerus studies have explored the effect of biochar as a soil amendment and its beneficial effects on different soil properties. Adding biochar to soils might also act as a long-term carbon sink, which would mitigate the anthropogenic climate change. However, there are limitations regarding the current process knowledge on the effects of biochar on soil erosion and its erodibility. First test results point towards lower erosion rates of the substrates, which were enriched with biochar. In contrast, biochar concurrently shows relatively high erosion rates due to its lower bulk density, which makes it more susceptible to erosion. However, the number of conducted experiments does not yet allow quantitative statements. The overall objectives of this study are to gain insight into the process knowledge of erodibility of soils with incorporated biochar, and to develop new techniques for their observation. A drip type rainfall simulator is used on a microscale flume (0.2m2) to be able to control and monitor the thin surface flows and rainfall characteristics precisely. Two different types of biochars (high and low temperature pyrolysis) are used in combination with different substrates ranging from pure sand to naturally developed soils. Depending on the particle size and density of the biochar, different erosion rates can be observed. Particle analysis of the eroded material produces insights into which particle sizes and forms are preferably eroded. Since differentiation between eroded soil organic matter and biochar is very difficult without the use of heavy acids, two new methods are being developed and tested to monitor erosion rates of biochar. Comparing the original substrate with the eroded sediment by means of photogrammetry and isotope analysis, it should be possible to infer how much biochar was discharged and to assess the actual particle movement on the erosion flume. The results of this study could provide guidelines for the types of biochar that should be

  16. a High-Performance Method for Simulating Surface Rainfall-Runoff Dynamics Using Particle System (United States)

    Zhang, Fangli; Zhou, Qiming; Li, Qingquan; Wu, Guofeng; Liu, Jun


    The simulation of rainfall-runoff process is essential for disaster emergency and sustainable development. One common disadvantage of the existing conceptual hydrological models is that they are highly dependent upon specific spatial-temporal contexts. Meanwhile, due to the inter-dependence of adjacent flow paths, it is still difficult for the RS or GIS supported distributed hydrological models to achieve high-performance application in real world applications. As an attempt to improve the performance efficiencies of those models, this study presents a high-performance rainfall-runoff simulating framework based on the flow path network and a separate particle system. The vector-based flow path lines are topologically linked to constrain the movements of independent rain drop particles. A separate particle system, representing surface runoff, is involved to model the precipitation process and simulate surface flow dynamics. The trajectory of each particle is constrained by the flow path network and can be tracked by concurrent processors in a parallel cluster system. The result of speedup experiment shows that the proposed framework can significantly improve the simulating performance just by adding independent processors. By separating the catchment elements and the accumulated water, this study provides an extensible solution for improving the existing distributed hydrological models. Further, a parallel modeling and simulating platform needs to be developed and validate to be applied in monitoring real world hydrologic processes.

  17. Characterisation of acid mine drainage in a high rainfall mountain environment, New Zealand. (United States)

    Davies, Hugh; Weber, Paul; Lindsay, Phil; Craw, Dave; Pope, James


    The Stockton coal mine lies at 700-1100 m above sea level in a mountainous orographic precipitation zone on the West Coast of the South Island of New Zealand. Rainfall exceeds 6000 mm/year and arrives with frequent flood events that can deliver > 200 mm/day. Streams vary in discharges by up to two orders of magnitude over a time scale of hours. Pyritic waste rock at the mine interacts chemically with even the most intense rainfall, and almost all runoff is acidic to some degree. In the most intense rain event recorded in this study (> 10 mm/hour), dilution of acid mine drainage (AMD) occurred and pH rose from 3 to >5 over several hours, with stream discharge at a monitoring point rising from 100 cumecs. However, most rain events of similar magnitude are less intense, longer duration, and only raise AMD pH to ~4 with similar high discharges. Results presented here for Stockton confirm that it is the intensity of rain events on the hourly scale, rather than the total amount of rainwater delivered to the site, that governs the amount and composition of AMD generated during flood events. Stream discharge loads of dissolved iron and aluminium range from ~20 to 1000 kg/hour. Dissolved sulfate and acidity loads are typically ~500 kg/hour but can exceed 20 tonnes/hour in rain events. First flush effects observable elsewhere around the world involving peak metal loads following dry periods or seasonal changes are not obvious at Stockton due to the high and variable rainfall environment. Dissolved Fe concentrations may be limited in runoff waters by precipitation of jarosite and schwertmannite, especially when rainfall is sufficiently intense to raise pH to 4 or higher. These minerals are widespread in the exposed waste rock on site. Likewise, precipitation of alunite may occur as pH rises in rain events, but no field evidence for this has been observed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Validation and correction of rainfall data from the WegenerNet high density network in southeast Austria (United States)

    O, Sungmin; Foelsche, U.; Kirchengast, G.; Fuchsberger, J.


    Eight years of daily rainfall data from WegenerNet were analyzed by comparison with data from Austrian national weather stations. WegenerNet includes 153 ground level weather stations in an area of about 15 km × 20 km in the Feldbach region in southeast Austria. Rainfall has been measured by tipping bucket gauges at 150 stations of the network since the beginning of 2007. Since rain gauge measurements are considered close to true rainfall, there are increasing needs for WegenerNet data for the validation of rainfall data products such as remote sensing based estimates or model outputs. Serving these needs, this paper aims at providing a clearer interpretation on WegenerNet rainfall data for users in hydro-meteorological communities. Five clusters - a cluster consists of one national weather station and its four closest WegenerNet stations - allowed us close comparison of datasets between the stations. Linear regression analysis and error estimation with statistical indices were conducted to quantitatively evaluate the WegenerNet daily rainfall data. It was found that rainfall data between the stations show good linear relationships with an average correlation coefficient (r) of 0.97 , while WegenerNet sensors tend to underestimate rainfall according to the regression slope (0.87). For the five clusters investigated, the bias and relative bias were - 0.97 mm d-1 and - 11.5 % on average (except data from new sensors). The average of bias and relative bias, however, could be reduced by about 80 % through a simple linear regression-slope correction, with the assumption that the underestimation in WegenerNet data was caused by systematic errors. The results from the study have been employed to improve WegenerNet data for user applications so that a new version of the data (v5) is now available at the WegenerNet data portal (

  19. Assessing topsoil and bedrock hydrodynamic properties from natural and artificial rainfalls over a 10m2 steep plot in Cevennes area (France) (United States)

    Adamovic, Marko; Bouvier, Christophe; Brunet, Pascal; Ayral, Pierre-Alain


    Flash floods are feature of Mediterranean climate characterized by heavy rainfalls in a few hours. Hydrological processes depend on both the topsoil and bedrock properties, which are still poorly known in the mountainous areas. Thus, special attention was paid to characterize the water fluxes in the shallow near-surface area. This study focuses on a 10-m2plot within a granitic hillslope in Cevennes area. Water content was monitored at several depths (up to 70cm) during both intense artificial and natural rainfall events, in order to study both infiltration and saturation processes in both extreme and normal conditions. Inverse modeling was performed in order to estimate parameters, such as θs, θr, α, n, Ks associated to the Mualem-Van Genuchten formulation, using the HYDRUS-1D software. The deep boundary condition was also calibrated to assess the properties of the deep layers. Although the topsoil depth is rather small (˜40 cm), the water storage during the rainfalls was estimated to be some hundreds millimeters, which largely exceeds the topsoil capacity. It suggests that the weathered area (and maybe the fractured rock area) below the soil, can have an active role in the water storage and sub-surface flow dynamics. Similar parameters were used to perform correct simulations under both artificial and natural rainfalls: thus artificial rainfalls enhance extreme conditions corresponding to flash floods occurrence, and the identified flux patterns are robust in natural conditions.

  20. The Coupling Effect of Rainfall and Reservoir Water Level Decline on the Baijiabao Landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nenghao Zhao


    Full Text Available Rainfall and reservoir level fluctuation are two of the main factors contributing to reservoir landslides. However, in China’s Three Gorges Reservoir Area, when the reservoir water level fluctuates significantly, it comes at a time of abundant rainfall, which makes it difficult to distinguish which factor dominates the deformation of the landslide. This study focuses on how rainfall and reservoir water level decline affect the seepage and displacement field of Baijiabao landslide spatially and temporally during drawdown of reservoir water level in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, thus exploring its movement mechanism. The monitoring data of the landslide in the past 10 years were analyzed, and the correlation between rainfall, reservoir water level decline, and landslide displacement was clarified. By the numerical simulation method, the deformation evolution mechanism of this landslide during drawdown of reservoir water level was revealed, respectively, under three conditions, namely, rainfall, reservoir water level decline, and coupling of the above two conditions. The results showed that the deformation of the Baijiabao landslide was the coupling effect of rainfall and reservoir water level decline, while the latter effect is more pronounced.

  1. The potential of urban rainfall monitoring with crowdsourced automatic weather stations in Amsterdam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, De Lotte; Leijnse, Hidde; Overeem, Aart; Uijlenhoet, Remko


    The high density of built-up areas and resulting imperviousness of the land surface makes urban areas vulnerable to extreme rainfall, which can lead to considerable damage. In order to design and manage cities to be able to deal with the growing number of extreme rainfall events, rainfall data are

  2. Estimating rainfall distributions at high temporal resolutions using a multifractal model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Pathirana


    Full Text Available Rainfall data from 18 stations in the vicinity of Tokyo city, measured to a precision of 1 mm, were analysed for multifractal properties. A multifractal model based on the scaling properties of temporal distribution of rainfall intensities was formulated to investigate the intensity distribution relationships in the available scaling regime. Although conventional analysis did not provide encouraging results with these measurements, an alternative approach that could be applied to rainfall data of widely variable quality and duration was used to establish a scaling relationship between daily and hourly rainfall intensities. Using a discrete cascade algorithm based on the log-Lèvy generator, synthetic hourly rainfall series were generated from the multifractal statistics of daily-accumulated rainfall. Several properties of rainfall time series that are relevant to the use of rainfall data in surface hydrological studies were used to determine, statistically, the degree of agreement between the synthetic hourly series and observed hourly rainfall. Keywords: rainfall modelling, cascades, multifractal, downscaling

  3. Boom and bust: rapid feedback responses between insect outbreak dynamics and canopy leaf area impacted by rainfall and CO2. (United States)

    Gherlenda, Andrew N; Esveld, Jessica L; Hall, Aidan A G; Duursma, Remko A; Riegler, Markus


    Frequency and severity of insect outbreaks in forest ecosystems are predicted to increase with climate change. How this will impact canopy leaf area in future climates is rarely tested. Here, we document function of insect outbreaks that fortuitously and rapidly occurred in an ecosystem under free-air CO2 enrichment. Over the first 2 years of CO2 fumigation of a naturally established mature Eucalyptus woodland, we continuously assessed population responses of three sap-feeding insect species of the psyllid genera Cardiaspina, Glycaspis and Spondyliaspis for up to ten consecutive generations. Concurrently, we quantified changes in the canopy leaf area index (LAI). Large and rapid shifts in psyllid community composition were recorded between species with either flush (Glycaspis) or senescence-inducing (Cardiaspina, Spondyliaspis) feeding strategies. Within the second year, two psyllid species experienced significant and rapid population build-up resulting in two consecutive outbreaks: first, rainfall stimulated Eucalyptus leaf production increasing LAI, which supported population growth of flush-feeding Glycaspis without impacting LAI. Glycaspis numbers then crashed and were followed by the outbreak of senescence-feeding Cardiaspina fiscella that led to significant defoliation and reduction in LAI. For all three psyllid species, the abundance of lerps, protective coverings excreted by the sessile nymphs, decreased at e[CO2 ]. Higher lerp weight at e[CO2 ] for Glycaspis but not the other psyllid species provided evidence for compensatory feeding by the flush feeder but not the two senescence feeders. Our study demonstrates that rainfall drives leaf phenology, facilitating the rapid boom-and-bust succession of psyllid species, eventually leading to significant defoliation due to the second but not the first outbreaking psyllid species. In contrast, e[CO2 ] may impact psyllid abundance and feeding behaviour, with psyllid species-specific outcomes for defoliation

  4. Effect of Different Mulches under Rainfall Concentration System on Corn Production in the Semi-arid Areas of the Loess Plateau (United States)

    Ren, Xiaolong; Zhang, Peng; Chen, Xiaoli; Guo, Jingjing; Jia, Zhikuan


    The ridge and furrow farming system for rainfall concentration (RC) has gradually been popularized to improve the water availability for crops and to increase the water use efficiency (WUE), thereby stabilizing high yields. In the RC system, plastic-covered ridges are rainfall harvesting zones and furrows are planting zones. In this study, we optimized the mulching patterns for RC planting to mitigate the risks of drought during crop production in semi-arid agricultural areas. We conducted a four-year field study to determine the effects on corn production of mulching with 0.08-mm plastic film, maize straw, 8% biodegradable film, liquid film, bare furrow, and conventional flat (CF) farming. We found that RC significantly increased (P > 0.05) the soil moisture storage in the top 0-100 cm layer and the topsoil temperature (0-10 cm) during the corn-growing season. Combining RC with mulching further improved the rain-harvesting, moisture-retaining, and yield-increasing effects in furrows. Compared with CF, the four-year average yield increased by 1497.1 kg ha-1 to 2937.3 kg ha-1 using RC with mulch treatments and the WUE increased by 2.3 kg ha-1 mm-1 to 5.1 kg ha-1 mm-1.

  5. Methods to determine the impact of rainfall on fuels and burned area in southern African savannas

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Archibald, S


    Full Text Available /Aux fins d'examen seulement Southern African re regimes as revealed by remote sensing S. Archibald1;2;6, R.J. Scholes1;2, D.P. Roy3, G.Roberts4, L. Boschetti5 April 9, 2010 1CSIR, Ecosystems Processes and Dynamics, PO Box 395, Pretoria 0001, South... uncultivated but grazed land; cultivated land; and settlements). While annual mean burnt381 area fraction (Figure 5A), maximum re size (Figure 5D), Fire Radiative Power (Figure 5E),382 and cumulative re-a ected area (Figure 3) decrease as human impact...

  6. Objective definition of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire flash floods and debris flows in the area burned by the Waldo Canyon fire, Colorado, USA (United States)

    Staley, Dennis M.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Kean, Jason W.


    We present an objectively defined rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) threshold for the initiation of flash floods and debris flows for basins recently burned in the 2012 Waldo Canyon fire near Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA. Our results are based on 453 rainfall records which include 8 instances of hazardous flooding and debris flow from 10 July 2012 to 14 August 2013. We objectively defined the thresholds by maximizing the number of correct predictions of debris flow or flood occurrence while minimizing the rate of both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) errors. The equation I = 11.6D−0.7 represents the I-D threshold (I, in mm/h) for durations (D, in hours) ranging from 0.083 h (5 min) to 1 h for basins burned by the 2012 Waldo Canyon fire. As periods of high-intensity rainfall over short durations (less than 1 h) produced all of the debris flow and flood events, real-time monitoring of rainfall conditions will result in very short lead times for early-warning. Our results highlight the need for improved forecasting of the rainfall rates during short-duration, high-intensity convective rainfall events.

  7. Change of Rainfall-runoff event hysteresis in suspended sediments due to surface decontamination in the area affected by the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident (United States)

    Onda, Y.; Yoshimura, K.; Taniguchi, K.; Kubo, T.; Smith, H.; Brake, W.; Kuramoto, T.; Sato, T.


    The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) on March 2011 accident released massive amounts of radiocesium into the terrestrial environment such as Cs-137 and Cs-134. Where deposition density of Cs-137 exceeds loughly 500 kBq/m2, evacuation has been ordered, and the cropland and paddy field have become grassland in the summer of 2011.A large scale government funded research program has been started (Saito and Onda, 2015) to monitor the amount of radiocesium wash off from the catchments started June, 2011 (Yamashiki et al 2013) starting initial 6 sites in the Abukuma river watershed in the nested structure. Two stations were installed on the main river channel (Iwanuma; 5313 km2 and Fushiguro; 3645 km2), and the more highly-contaminated Kuchibuto sub-basin (Mizusakai; 7.5km2, Kuchibuto Upstream; 21.4 km2, Kuchibuto middle stream; 63 km2, Kuchibuto downstream; 135 km2) was selected for detailed monitoring. The sites are increased to 30 sites (Yoshimura et al., 2015) to cover the most of the area within 80 km from the FDNPP in 2013.Continuous measurements of flow and turbidity (for estimating suspended sediment concentration) were made at each monitoring station. Turbidity meters (Analyte turbidity meter, MacVan 3000-NTU) calibrated with bottom sediment of the Horai reservoir upstream the Abukuma river, and water level gauges (RuggedTROLL100) . During our monitoring of topsoil up to 5 cm and replaced with lower part of the soil taken nearby in the two upstream catchments (Kuchibuto upstream, Mizusakai ) mainly in 2014 to 2015.The change of rainfall-runoff event hysteresis in suspended sediments before and after the decontamination was significant. From 2011 to 2013. Most of the response of suspended sediment occurs before the rainfall peak. However, after 2014, the response occurs after the runoff events, and suspended sediment concentration has been increased especially in the stations where decontamination area ratio are high.

  8. A space-time rainfall generator for highly convective Mediterranean rainstorms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Salsón


    Full Text Available Distributed hydrological models require fine resolution rainfall inputs, enhancing the practical interest of space-time rainfall models, capable of generating through numerical simulation realistic space-time rainfall intensity fields. Among different mathematical approaches, those based on point processes and built upon a convenient analytical description of the raincell as the fundamental unit, have shown to be particularly suitable and well adapted when extreme rainfall events of convective nature are considered. Starting from previous formulations, some analytical refinements have been considered, allowing practical generation of space-time rainfall intensity fields for that type of rainstorm events. Special attention is placed on the analytical description of the spatial and temporal evolution of the rainfall intensities produced by the raincells. After deriving the necessary analytical results, the seven parameters of the model have been estimated by the method of moments, for each of the 30 selected rainfall events in the Jucar River Basin (ValenciaSpain – period 1991 to 2000, using 5-min aggregated rainfall data series from an automatic raingauge network.

  9. Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia (United States)

    Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.


    Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as

  10. Feasibility of High-Resolution Soil Erosion Measurements by Means of Rainfall Simulations and SfM Photogrammetry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phoebe Hänsel


    Full Text Available The silty soils of the intensively used agricultural landscape of the Saxon loess province, eastern Germany, are very prone to soil erosion, mainly caused by water erosion. Rainfall simulations, and also increasingly structure-from-motion (SfM photogrammetry, are used as methods in soil erosion research not only to assess soil erosion by water, but also to quantify soil loss. This study aims to validate SfM photogrammetry determined soil loss estimations with rainfall simulations measurements. Rainfall simulations were performed at three agricultural sites in central Saxony. Besides the measured data runoff and soil loss by sampling (in mm, terrestrial images were taken from the plots with digital cameras before and after the rainfall simulation. Subsequently, SfM photogrammetry was used to reconstruct soil surface changes due to soil erosion in terms of high resolution digital elevation models (DEMs for the pre- and post-event (resolution 1 × 1 mm. By multi-temporal change detection, the digital elevation model of difference (DoD and an averaged soil loss (in mm is received, which was compared to the soil loss by sampling. Soil loss by DoD was higher than soil loss by sampling. The method of SfM photogrammetry-determined soil loss estimations also include a comparison of three different ground control point (GCP approaches, revealing that the most complex one delivers the most reliable soil loss by DoD. Additionally, soil bulk density changes and splash erosion beyond the plot were measured during the rainfall simulation experiments in order to separate these processes and associated surface changes from the soil loss by DoD. Furthermore, splash was negligibly small, whereas higher soil densities after the rainfall simulations indicated soil compaction. By means of calculated soil surface changes due to soil compaction, the soil loss by DoD achieved approximately the same value as the soil loss by rainfall simulation.

  11. Applicability of satellite rainfall estimates for erosion studies in small offshore areas: a case study in Cape Verde Islands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moreno, J.F.S.; Mannaerts, C.M.; Jetten, V.G.


    To assess the usability of satellite rainfall estimates for erosion studies in Cape Verde, the 3B42 and 3B43 products from TRMM, and the Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate MPE from Meteosat are compared to daily and monthly ground rainfall measured between 1998 and 2010. TRMM estimates from 1998

  12. Examining Spatio-Temporal Intensity-Frequency Variations in Extreme Monsoon Rainfall using High Resolution Data (United States)

    Devak, M.; Rajendran, V.; C T, D.


    The study of extreme events has gained the attention of hydrologists in recent times. Though these events are rare, the effects are catastrophic. It is reported that the frequency of the occurrence of these events has increased in recent decades, and is attributed to the recent revelation of climate change. Numerous studies have pointed out significant changes in extremely heavy precipitation over India, using coarse resolution data. Though there are disagreements in the results and its spatial uniformity, all these studies emphasize the need of fine resolution analysis. Fine resolution analysis is necessary mainly due to the highly heterogeneous characteristics of Indian monsoon, and for the proper employment in flood hazard preparedness and water resources management. The present study aims to analyse the spatio-temporal variation and trends in the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation during Indian monsoon using 0.25°×0.25° resolution gridded data for a period of 113 years (1901-2013). The exceedance threshold is fixed at 90th percentile of rainfall over 113 years and parameters are defined accordingly. The maximum intensity of each extreme rainfall episode of 30 year moving window has been modelled using Peak Over Threshold based Extreme Value Theory to compute return level (considered for intensity). In addition, the number of such episodes in a particular year has been termed as frequency. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test has been carried out for both intensity and frequency, to compute the statistical trend. In addition, moving block bootstrap approach has been used to incorporate the serial correlation. The significance of the trend has been evaluated at different significance levels and finally, change in trend over last century has been examined.

  13. Effect on runoff of rainfall redistribution by the impluvium-shaped canopy of banana cultivated on an Andosol with a high infiltration rate (United States)

    Cattan, P.; Ruy, S. M.; Cabidoche, Y.-M.; Findeling, A.; Desbois, P.; Charlier, J. B.


    SummaryRainfall redistribution by plant canopy, notably the water flow down the plant stem (stemflow), modifies the incident rainfall rate at the soil surface and may affect runoff generation. To test this hypothesis, we observed and measured runoff at the plant scale with banana cultivated on tropical Andosol. Observation of runoff by video and matrix potential monitoring showed that, during a runoff event, the matrix potential increased mainly downstream from the pseudostem in line with the slope, delimiting a saturated zone of runoff propagation that appeared on video monitoring. The results indicate that rainfall redistribution by plant canopy, i.e. stemflow and dripping areas, enhances runoff even on soil with a high infiltration rate (mean hydraulic conductivity at saturation Ks of 67 mm h -1). Data analysis of 40 runoff events showed that events were composed of at least two runoff phases characterized by an abrupt increase in runoff coefficient (RC) from 0.16 to 0.65 between the first and the second phase. The change in RC was related to rainfall rate. Also, between the first and the second runoff phase, the apparent infiltration rate at the plot scale decreased from 30 to 10 mm h -1. This was related to an increase in runoff contributing areas (RCA), from an estimated 18% to 93% of the plot surface. However, data analysis and model simulations showed that the increase in mean rainfall rate in RCA due to stemflow was not sufficient to account for large runoff volumes. Hence, one must also take into account the spatial variation of hydraulic conductivity at saturation with low values relative to RCA (estimation for the second runoff phase was 7.6 mm h -1). Moreover, simulation results implied Ks decreases with time. Finally, rainfall redistribution may have an impact at a larger scale. In banana plantations, the hydraulic connectivity of runoff areas can enhance the stemflow effect up to the plot scale. From this point of view, the two-compartment scheme we

  14. Validation of Satellite Rainfall Products over the Upper Blue Nile Basin: Comparison with Dense Rain Gauge Networks at Low- and High-Elevation Sites (United States)

    Gebremichael, M.; Tesfaye, G.; Bitew, M. M.; Hirpa, F. A.


    The demand for accurate satellite rainfall products is increasing particularly in Africa where ground-based data are mostly unreliable and unavailable. In this study, the accuracy of three widely-used, near-global, high-resolution satellite rainfall products (CMORPH, TMPA-RT v7, TMPA-RP v7) is assessed using relatively dense networks of rain gauges deployed at two experimental sites that represent extreme topographic features of the Blue Nile River Basin: (1) low-elevation grid located in the lowland plain of the basin, and (2) high-elevation grid located in the highland mountainous region of the basin. Results show that the accuracy of satellite rainfall estimates depends on rainfall rate, underlying topography, and retrieval algorithm. The satellite estimates produce a positive bias for light rainfall and negative bias for moderate and heavy rainfall, and are less capable of detecting rainfall at the high-elevation site. CMORPH and TMPA-RT overestimate mean rainfall at the low-elevation site but underestimate it at the high-elevation site. TMPA-RT and TMPA-RP underestimate frequency but overestimate intensity of rainfall in both regions. Of all the products, CMORPH shows superior performance in estimating the temporal fluctuation of rainfall, detecting rain, and capturing the diurnal cycle of rainfall. However, CMORPH is the most biased estimate. TMPA-RT and TMPA-RP provide lower bias, but this comes as the result of two substantially large errors that tend to cancel each other while computing the bias: substantial underestimation of rainfall occurrence and substantial overestimation of rain intensity. Although the TMPA-RP estimates are primarily developed to remove the bias and improve the overall accuracy of the TMPA-RT estimates, the TMPA-RP estimates show by far inferior performance than the TMPA-RT estimates by all accounts including bias. Of all three satellite rainfall products considered, TMPA-RP shows the worst and unacceptable performance by all

  15. Spatial estimation of debris flows-triggering rainfall and its dependence on rainfall severity (United States)

    Destro, Elisa; Marra, Francesco; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios; Zoccatelli, Davide; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Borga, Marco


    Forecasting the occurrence of landslides and debris flows (collectively termed 'debris flows' hereinafter) is fundamental for issuing hazard warnings, and focuses largely on rainfall as a triggering agent. Debris flow forecasting relies very often on the identification of combinations of depth and duration of rainfall - rainfall thresholds - that trigger widespread debris flows. Rainfall estimation errors related to the sparse nature of raingauge data are enhanced in case of convective rainfall events characterized by limited spatial extent. Such errors have been shown to cause underestimation of the rainfall thresholds and, thus, less efficient forecasts of debris flows occurrence. This work examines the spatial organization of debris flows-triggering rainfall around the debris flow initiation points using high-resolution, carefully corrected radar data for a set of short duration (Alps. The set includes eleven debris-flow triggering rainfall events that occurred in the study area between 2005 and 2014. The selected events are among the most severe in the region during this period and triggered a total of 99 debris flows that caused significant damage to people and infrastructures. We show that the spatial rainfall organisation depends on the severity (measured via the estimated return time-RT) of the debris flow-triggering rainfall. For more frequent events (RTdebris flow location coincides with a local minimum, whereas for less frequent events (RT>20 yrs) the triggering rainfall presents a local peak corresponding to the debris flow initiation point. Dependence of these features on rainfall duration is quite limited. The characteristics of the spatial rainfall organisation are exploited to understand the performances and results of three different rainfall interpolation techniques: nearest neighbour (NN), inverse distance weighting (IDW) and ordinary kriging (OK). We show that the features of the spatial organization of the debris flow triggering rainfall

  16. Which downscaled rainfall data for climate change impact studies in urban areas? Review of current approaches and trends (United States)

    Gooré Bi, Eustache; Gachon, Philippe; Vrac, Mathieu; Monette, Frédéric


    Changes in extreme precipitation should be one of the primary impacts of climate change (CC) in urban areas. To assess these impacts, rainfall data from climate models are commonly used. The main goal of this paper is to report on the state of knowledge and recent works on the study of CC impacts with a focus on urban areas, in order to produce an integrated review of various approaches to which future studies can then be compared or constructed. Model output statistics (MOS) methods are increasingly used in the literature to study the impacts of CC in urban settings. A review of previous works highlights the non-stationarity nature of future climate data, underscoring the need to revise urban drainage system design criteria. A comparison of these studies is made difficult, however, by the numerous sources of uncertainty arising from a plethora of assumptions, scenarios, and modeling options. All the methods used do, however, predict increased extreme precipitation in the future, suggesting potential risks of combined sewer overflow frequencies, flooding, and back-up in existing sewer systems in urban areas. Future studies must quantify more accurately the different sources of uncertainty by improving downscaling and correction methods. New research is necessary to improve the data validation process, an aspect that is seldom reported in the literature. Finally, the potential application of non-stationarity conditions into generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution should be assessed more closely, which will require close collaboration between engineers, hydrologists, statisticians, and climatologists, thus contributing to the ongoing reflection on this issue of social concern.

  17. Automatic prediction of high-resolution daily rainfall fields for multiple extents: the potential of operational radar

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuurmans, J.M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; Pebesma, E.J.; Uijlenhoet, R.


    This study investigates the added value of operational radar with respect to rain gauges in obtaining high-resolution daily rainfall fields as required in distributed hydrological modeling. To this end data from the Netherlands operational national rain gauge network (330 gauges nationwide) is

  18. Development of a low-budget, remote, solar powered, and self-operating rain gauge for spatial rainfall real time data monitoring in pristine and urban areas (United States)

    Shafiei Shiva, J.; Chandler, D. G.; Nucera, K. J.; Valinski, N.


    Precipitation is one of the main components of the hydrological cycle and simulations and it is generally stated as an average value for the study area. However, due to high spatial variability of precipitation in some situations, more precise local data is required. In order to acquire the precipitation data, interpolation of neighbor gauged precipitation data is used which is the most affordable technique for a watershed scale study. Moreover, novel spatial rain measurements such as Doppler radars and satellite image processing have been widely used in recent studies. Although, due to impediments in the radar data processing and the effect of the local setting on the accuracy of the interpolated data, the local measurement of the precipitation remains as one of the most reliable approaches in attaining rain data. In this regard, development of a low-budget, remote, solar powered, and self-operating rain gauge for spatial rainfall real time data monitoring for pristine and urban areas has been presented in this research. The proposed rain gauge consists of two main parts: (a) hydraulic instruments and (b) electrical devices. The hydraulic instruments will collect the rain fall and store it in a PVC container which is connected to the high sensitivity pressure transducer systems. These electrical devices will transmit the data via cellphone networks which will be available for further analysis in less than one minute, after processing. The above-mentioned real time rain fall data can be employed in the precipitation measurement and the evaporation estimation. Due to the installed solar panel for battery recharging and designed siphon system for draining cumulative rain, this device is considered as a self-operating rain gauge. At this time, more than ten rain gauges are built and installed in the urban area of Syracuse, NY. Furthermore, these data are also useful for calibration and validation of data obtained by other rain gauging devices and estimation techniques

  19. Evapotranspiration of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) under the highly seasonal rainfall regime of the Asian monsoon in mainland Southeast Asia (United States)

    Giambelluca, T. W.; Mudd, R. G.; Liu, W.; Kobayashi, N.; Ziegler, A. D.; Miyazawa, Y.; Kumagai, T.; Huang, M.


    The Asian Monsoon dominates the climate of the mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) region, characterized by a highly seasonal rainfall regime in which 80-90% of annual rainfall occurs during the 6-month (May-October) wet season. The accompanying extremes in soil moisture, solar radiation, and vapor pressure deficit exert strong controls on ecosystem fluxes, including evapotranspiration (ET). Rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), the major commercial crop currently replacing traditional agriculture and secondary forests in MSEA is a native of the equatorial Amazon rainforest, and differs physiologically from the dominant native SE Asian forest tree species. It sheds its leaves in the middle of the dry season and flushes new leaves before the onset of the wet season. In some areas, rubber cultivation is suspected of having caused changes in local climate and watershed processes, including a dramatic downward trend in fog frequency and large increases in surface runoff and soil erosion (Wu et al., 2001, Int. J. Sust. Dev. World Ecol. 8:337-345). Guardiola-Claramonte et al. (2008, Ecohydrology 1:13-22; 2010, Ecohydrology 3:306-314) noted striking differences in the timing and rate of dry season root-water extraction under rubber as compared with other vegetation types. To investigate the environmental impacts of rubber, eddy covariance flux towers were installed to monitor energy, water, and carbon exchange at rubber plantation sites in northeastern Thailand and Cambodia. Results of the first two years of observations at the sites indicate that controls on ET differ between wet and dry seasons, with varying responses to energy, soil moisture, canopy wetness, and leaf area. Despite the long dry season and loss of leaves for several weeks, rubber accumulates exceptionally high annual ET totals, exceeding those of natural forest and other plant functional types in the region. The phenology of rubber represents a disruption of the land-atmosphere interactions of native and other non

  20. Comparison of different synthetic 5-min rainfall time series on the results of rainfall runoff simulations in urban drainage modelling (United States)

    Krämer, Stefan; Rohde, Sophia; Schröder, Kai; Belli, Aslan; Maßmann, Stefanie; Schönfeld, Martin; Henkel, Erik; Fuchs, Lothar


    The design of urban drainage systems with numerical simulation models requires long, continuous rainfall time series with high temporal resolution. However, suitable observed time series are rare. As a result, usual design concepts often use uncertain or unsuitable rainfall data, which renders them uneconomic or unsustainable. An expedient alternative to observed data is the use of long, synthetic rainfall time series as input for the simulation models. Within the project SYNOPSE, several different methods to generate synthetic rainfall data as input for urban drainage modelling are advanced, tested, and compared. Synthetic rainfall time series of three different precipitation model approaches, - one parametric stochastic model (alternating renewal approach), one non-parametric stochastic model (resampling approach), one downscaling approach from a regional climate model-, are provided for three catchments with different sewer system characteristics in different climate regions in Germany: - Hamburg (northern Germany): maritime climate, mean annual rainfall: 770 mm; combined sewer system length: 1.729 km (City center of Hamburg), storm water sewer system length (Hamburg Harburg): 168 km - Brunswick (Lower Saxony, northern Germany): transitional climate from maritime to continental, mean annual rainfall: 618 mm; sewer system length: 278 km, connected impervious area: 379 ha, height difference: 27 m - Friburg in Brisgau (southern Germany): Central European transitional climate, mean annual rainfall: 908 mm; sewer system length: 794 km, connected impervious area: 1 546 ha, height difference 284 m Hydrodynamic models are set up for each catchment to simulate rainfall runoff processes in the sewer systems. Long term event time series are extracted from the - three different synthetic rainfall time series (comprising up to 600 years continuous rainfall) provided for each catchment and - observed gauge rainfall (reference rainfall) according national hydraulic design

  1. Extreme flood event analysis in Indonesia based on rainfall intensity and recharge capacity (United States)

    Narulita, Ida; Ningrum, Widya


    Indonesia is very vulnerable to flood disaster because it has high rainfall events throughout the year. Flood is categorized as the most important hazard disaster because it is causing social, economic and human losses. The purpose of this study is to analyze extreme flood event based on satellite rainfall dataset to understand the rainfall characteristic (rainfall intensity, rainfall pattern, etc.) that happened before flood disaster in the area for monsoonal, equatorial and local rainfall types. Recharge capacity will be analyzed using land cover and soil distribution. The data used in this study are CHIRPS rainfall satellite data on 0.05 ° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution, and GSMap satellite rainfall dataset operated by JAXA on 1-hour temporal resolution and 0.1 ° spatial resolution, land use and soil distribution map for recharge capacity analysis. The rainfall characteristic before flooding, and recharge capacity analysis are expected to become the important information for flood mitigation in Indonesia.

  2. Improving Rainfall Erosivity Estimates Using Merged TRMM and Gauge Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongfen Teng


    Full Text Available Soil erosion is a global issue that threatens food security and causes environmental degradation. Management of water erosion requires accurate estimates of the spatial and temporal variations in the erosive power of rainfall (erosivity. Rainfall erosivity can be estimated from rain gauge stations and satellites. However, the time series rainfall data that has a high temporal resolution are often unavailable in many areas of the world. Satellite remote sensing allows provision of the continuous gridded estimates of rainfall, yet it is generally characterized by significant bias. Here we present a methodology that merges daily rain gauge measurements and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42 data using collocated cokriging (ColCOK to quantify the spatial distribution of rainfall and thereby to estimate rainfall erosivity across China. This study also used block kriging (BK and TRMM to estimate rainfall and rainfall erosivity. The methodologies are evaluated based on the individual rain gauge stations. The results from the present study generally indicate that the ColCOK technique, in combination with TRMM and gauge data, provides merged rainfall fields with good agreement with rain gauges and with the best accuracy with rainfall erosivity estimates, when compared with BK gauges and TRMM alone.

  3. Mobilisation or dilution? Nitrate response of karst springs to high rainfall events (United States)

    Huebsch, M.; Fenton, O.; Horan, B.; Hennessy, D.; Richards, K. G.; Jordan, P.; Goldscheider, N.; Butscher, C.; Blum, P.


    Nitrate (NO3-) contamination of groundwater associated with agronomic activity is of major concern in many countries. Where agriculture, thin free draining soils and karst aquifers coincide, groundwater is highly vulnerable to nitrate contamination. As residence times and denitrification potential in such systems are typically low, nitrate can discharge to surface waters unabated. However, such systems also react quickest to agricultural management changes that aim to improve water quality. In response to storm events, nitrate concentrations can alter significantly, i.e. rapidly decreasing or increasing concentrations. The current study examines the response of a specific karst spring situated on a grassland farm in South Ireland to rainfall events utilising high-resolution nitrate and discharge data together with on-farm borehole groundwater fluctuation data. Specifically, the objectives of the study are to formulate a scientific hypothesis of possible scenarios relating to nitrate responses during storm events, and to verify this hypothesis using additional case studies from the literature. This elucidates the controlling key factors that lead to mobilisation and/or dilution of nitrate concentrations during storm events. These were land use, hydrological condition and karstification, which in combination can lead to differential responses of mobilised and/or diluted nitrate concentrations. Furthermore, the results indicate that nitrate response in karst is strongly dependent on nutrient source, whether mobilisation and/or dilution occur and on the pathway taken. This will have consequences for the delivery of nitrate to a surface water receptor. The current study improves our understanding of nitrate responses in karst systems and therefore can guide environmental modellers, policy makers and drinking water managers with respect to the regulations of the European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (WFD). In future, more research should focus on the high

  4. Calibration of commercial microwave link derived- rainfall and its relevance to flash flood occurrence in the Dead Sea area (United States)

    Eshel, Adam; Alpert, Pinhas; Raich, Roi; Laronne, Jonathan; Merz, Ralf; Geyer, Stefan; Corsmeier, Ulrich


    Flash floods are a common phenomenon in arid and semi-arid areas such as the Dead Sea. These floods are generated due to a combination of short lasting, yet intense rainfall and typical low infiltration rates. The rare flow events in ephemeral rivers have significant importance in the replenishment of groundwater via transmission losses and in sustaining the vivid ecology of drylands. In some cases, flash floods cause severe damage to infrastructure as well as to private property, constituting a threat to human life. The temporal variation of rainfall intensity is the main driver generating the majority of flash floods in the Judean Desert, hence its monitoring is crucial in this area as in other remote arid areas worldwide. Cellular communication towers are profusely located. Commercial Microwave Links (CML) attenuation data obtained by cellular companies can be used for environmental monitoring. Rain is one of the most effective meteorological phenomena to attenuate a CML signal which, unlike radar backscatter, relates to near-surface conditions and is, therefore, suitable for surface hydrology. A 16 km CML crosses the Wadi Ze'elim drainage basin (~250 square kilometers), at the outlet of which the discharge is calculated using the Manning formula. The hydrometric data include accurate longitudinal and cross sectional measurements, water level and importantly mean water surface velocity when present during a flash flood. The latter is first-ever obtained in desert flash floods by portable, radar-based surface velocimetry. Acquisition of water velocity data is essential to avoid assuming a constant roughness coefficient, thereby more accurately calculating water discharge. Calibrating the CML-rain intensity, derived from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU)'s power law, is necessary to correlate the surface hydrologic response to the link. Our calibration approach is as follows: all the Israel Meteorological Service C-band radar cells over the CML

  5. Accuracy of rainfall measurement for scales of hydrological interest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Wood


    Full Text Available The dense network of 49 raingauges over the 135 km2 Brue catchment in Somerset, England is used to examine the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained from raingauges and from weather radar. Methods for data quality control and classification of precipitation types are first described. A super-dense network comprising eight gauges within a 2 km grid square is employed to obtain a 'true value' of rainfall against which the 2 km radar grid and a single 'typical gauge' estimate can be compared. Accuracy is assessed as a function of rainfall intensity, for different periods of time-integration (15 minutes, 1 hour and 1 day and for two 8-gauge networks in areas of low and high relief. In a similar way, the catchment gauge network is used to provide the 'true catchment rainfall' and the accuracy of a radar estimate (an area-weighted average of radar pixel values and a single 'typical gauge' estimate of catchment rainfall evaluated as a function of rainfall intensity. A single gauge gives a standard error of estimate for rainfall in a 2 km square and over the catchment of 33% and 65% respectively, at rain rates of 4 mm in 15 minutes. Radar data at 2 km resolution give corresponding errors of 50% and 55%. This illustrates the benefit of using radar when estimating catchment scale rainfall. A companion paper (Wood et al., 2000 considers the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained using raingauge and radar in combination. Keywords: rainfall, accuracy, raingauge, radar

  6. Flood Prediction using Rainfall – Runoff Spatial Variation: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    High intensity rainfall and associated floods have become frequent in most cities and urban areas in recent years, within the lower reaches of the Niger Delta. The magnitude and time variation of rainfall and associated runoff has proved more difficult to predict. This is mainly as a result of the inherent stochastic nature of ...

  7. Weather forecast performances for complex orographic areas: Impact of different grid resolutions and of geographic data on heavy rainfall event simulations in Sicily (United States)

    Caccamo, M. T.; Castorina, G.; Colombo, F.; Insinga, V.; Maiorana, E.; Magazù, S.


    Over the past decades, Sicily has undergone an increasing sequence of extreme weather events that have produced, besides huge damages to both environment and territory, the death of hundreds of people together with the evacuation of thousands of residents, which have permanently lost their properties. In this framework, with this paper we have investigated the impact of different grid spacing and geographic data on the performance of forecasts over complex orographic areas. In order to test the validity of this approach we have analyzed and discussed, as case study, the heavy rainfall occurred in Sicily during the night of October 10, 2015. In just 9 h, a Mediterranean depression, centered on the Tunisian coastline, produced a violent mesoscale storm localized on the Peloritani Mountains with a maximum rain accumulation of about 200 mm. The results of these simulations were obtained using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model, version 3.7.1, at different grid spacing values and the Two Way Nesting procedure with a sub-domain centered on the area of interest. The results highlighted that providing correct and timely forecasts of extreme weather events is a challenge that could have been efficiently and effectively countered using proper employment of high spatial resolution models.

  8. Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression (United States)

    Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel


    Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum

  9. Rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy (United States)

    Peruccacci, Silvia; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Rossi, Mauro; Guzzetti, Fausto


    The large physiographic variability and the abundance of landslide and rainfall data make Italy an ideal site to investigate variations in the rainfall conditions that can result in rainfall-induced landslides. We used landslide information obtained from multiple sources and rainfall data captured by 2228 rain gauges to build a catalogue of 2309 rainfall events with - mostly shallow - landslides in Italy between January 1996 and February 2014. For each rainfall event with landslides, we reconstructed the rainfall history that presumably caused the slope failure, and we determined the corresponding rainfall duration D (in hours) and cumulated event rainfall E (in mm). Adopting a power law threshold model, we determined cumulated event rainfall-rainfall duration (ED) thresholds, at 5% exceedance probability, and their uncertainty. We defined a new national threshold for Italy, and 26 regional thresholds for environmental subdivisions based on topography, lithology, land-use, land cover, climate, and meteorology, and we used the thresholds to study the variations of the rainfall conditions that can result in landslides in different environments, in Italy. We found that the national and the environmental thresholds cover a small part of the possible DE domain. The finding supports the use of empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide forecasting in Italy, but poses an empirical limitation to the possibility of defining thresholds for small geographical areas. We observed differences between some of the thresholds. With increasing mean annual precipitation (MAP), the thresholds become higher and steeper, indicating that more rainfall is needed to trigger landslides where the MAP is high than where it is low. This suggests that the landscape adjusts to the regional meteorological conditions. We also observed that the thresholds are higher for stronger rocks, and that forested areas require more rainfall than agricultural areas to initiate landslides. Finally, we

  10. Land cover effects on infiltration and preferential flow pathways in the high rainfall zone of Madagascar (United States)

    Zwartendijk, Bob; van Meerveld, Ilja; Ravelona, Maafaka; Razakamanarivo, Herintsitohaina; Ghimire, Chandra; Bruijnzeel, Sampurno; Jones, Julia


    Shortened slash-and-burn cycles exhaust agricultural land and have resulted in extensive tracts of highly degraded land across the tropics. Land degradation typically results in decreased rainfall infiltration due to a reduced field-saturated hydraulic conductivity of the topsoil because of a progressive decline in soil organic matter, exposure to raindrop impact, surface sealing and compaction. This results, in turn, in enhanced surface runoff and erosion, and consequently less subsurface flow and groundwater recharge. On the other hand, natural vegetation regrowth or active reforestation can lead to a renewed accumulation of soil organic matter, macropore development and increased infiltration rates. As part of the P4GES project (Can Paying 4 Global Ecosystem Services values reduce poverty?;, we study the effects of land use change and reforestation on water resources in the Corridor Ankeniheny-Zahamena (CAZ) in eastern Madagascar. In this poster, we present the results of infiltration and preferential flow measurements in four different land uses in the southern part of the CAZ: (i) closed canopy forest, (ii) 3-14 year-old regrowth on fallow land (savokas), (iii) exhausted and severely degraded land (tany maty), and (iv) recently reforested sites (6-8 years old). The results show that infiltrability increases significantly after several years of forest regrowth after land abandonment, but it remains unclear whether active replanting decreases the time required for restoration of soil hydrological functioning. Preferential flow pathways differed strikingly between the respective land cover types: infiltration in mature forests was predominantly characterized by macropore flow (preferential flow pathways), whereas infiltration in exhausted agricultural land was dominated by matrix flow (few preferential flow pathways). Occurrence of preferential flow pathways in reforestation and fallow sites varied considerably. These results suggest that land

  11. Recharge heterogeneity and high intensity rainfall events increase contamination risk for Mediterranean groundwater resources (United States)

    Hartmann, Andreas; Jasechko, Scott; Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Andreo, Bartolomé; Barberá, Juan Antonio; Brielmann, Heike; Charlier, Jean-Baptiste; Darling, George; Filippini, Maria; Garvelmann, Jakob; Goldscheider, Nico; Kralik, Martin; Kunstmann, Harald; Ladouche, Bernard; Lange, Jens; Mudarra, Matías; Francisco Martín, José; Rimmer, Alon; Sanchez, Damián; Stumpp, Christine; Wagener, Thorsten


    Karst develops through the dissolution of carbonate rock and results in pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity of hydrological processes. Karst groundwater in Europe is a major source of fresh water contributing up to half of the total drinking water supply in some countries like Austria or Slovenia. Previous work showed that karstic recharge processes enhance and alter the sensitivity of recharge to climate variability. The enhanced preferential flow from the surface to the aquifer may be followed by enhanced risk of groundwater contamination. In this study we assess the contamination risk of karst aquifers over Europe and the Mediterranean using simulated transit time distributions. Using a new type of semi-distributed model that considers the spatial heterogeneity of karst hydraulic properties, we were able to simulate karstic groundwater recharge including its heterogeneous spatiotemporal dynamics. The model is driven by gridded daily climate data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Transit time distributions are calculated using virtual tracer experiments. We evaluated our simulations by independent information on transit times derived from observed time series of water isotopes of >70 karst springs over Europe. The simulations indicate that, compared to humid, mountain and desert regions, the Mediterranean region shows a stronger risk of contamination in Europe because preferential flow processes are most pronounced given thin soil layers and the seasonal abundance of high intensity rainfall events in autumn and winter. Our modelling approach includes strong simplifications and its results cannot easily be generalized but it still highlights that the combined effects of variable climate and heterogeneous catchment properties constitute a strong risk on water quality.

  12. Linking river nutrient concentrations to land use and rainfall in a paddy agriculture-urban area gradient watershed in southeast China. (United States)

    Xia, Yongqiu; Ti, Chaopu; She, Dongli; Yan, Xiaoyuan


    The effects of land use and land-use changes on river nutrient concentrations are not well understood, especially in the watersheds of developing countries that have a mixed land use of rice paddy fields and developing urban surfaces. Here, we present a three-year study of a paddy agricultural-urban area gradient watershed in southeast China. The annual anthropogenic nitrogen (N) input from the agricultural region to the urban region was high, yet the results showed that the monthly nutrient concentrations in the river were low in the rainy seasons. The nutrient concentrations decreased continuously as the river water passed through the traditional agriculture region (TAR; paddy rice and wheat rotation) and increased substantially in the city region (CR). The traditional agricultural reference region exported most of the nutrient loads at high flows (>1mmd(-1)), the intensified agricultural region (IAR, aquaculture and poultry farming) exported most of the nutrient loads at moderate flows (between 0.5 and 1mmd(-1)), and the CR reference area exported most of the nutrient loads under low to moderate flows. We developed a statistical model to link variations in the nutrient concentrations to the proportion of land-use types and rainfall. The statistical results showed that impervious surfaces, which we interpret as a proxy for urban activities including sewage disposal, were the most important drivers of nutrient concentrations, whereas water surfaces accounted for a substantial proportion of the nutrient sinks. Therefore, to efficiently reduce water pollution, sewage from urban areas must be addressed as a priority, although wetland restoration could also achieve substantial pollutant removal. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  13. Exploring the relationship between malaria, rainfall intermittency, and spatial variation in rainfall seasonality (United States)

    Merkord, C. L.; Wimberly, M. C.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.


    Malaria is a major public health problem throughout tropical regions of the world. Successful prevention and treatment of malaria requires an understanding of the environmental factors that affect the life cycle of both the malaria pathogens, protozoan parasites, and its vectors, anopheline mosquitos. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates (TRMM and GPM), evapotranspiration derived from a simplified surface energy balance, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave imagery. Previous studies have found links between malaria cases and total monthly or weekly rainfall in areas where both are highly seasonal. However it is far from clear that monthly or weekly summaries are the best metrics to use to explain malaria outbreaks. It is possible that particular temporal or spatial patterns of rainfall result in better mosquito habitat and thus higher malaria risk. We used malaria case data from the Amhara region of Ethiopia and satellite-derived rainfall estimates to explore the relationship between malaria outbreaks and rainfall with the goal of identifying the most useful rainfall metrics for modeling malaria occurrence. First, we explored spatial variation in the seasonal patterns of both rainfall and malaria cases in Amhara. Second, we assessed the relative importance of different metrics of rainfall intermittency, including alternation of wet and dry spells, the strength of intensity fluctuations, and spatial variability in these measures, in determining the length and severity of malaria outbreaks. We also explored the sensitivity of our results to the choice of method for describing rainfall intermittency and the spatial and temporal scale at which metrics were calculated. Results

  14. Flood Hazard Areas - High Risk (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The S_Fld_Haz_Ar table contains information about the flood hazards within the study area. A spatial file with locational information also corresponds with this data...

  15. An all-timescales rainfall probability distribution (United States)

    Papalexiou, S. M.; Koutsoyiannis, D.


    The selection of a probability distribution for rainfall intensity at many different timescales simultaneously is of primary interest and importance as typically the hydraulic design strongly depends on the rainfall model choice. It is well known that the rainfall distribution may have a long tail, is highly skewed at fine timescales and tends to normality as the timescale increases. This behaviour, explained by the maximum entropy principle (and for large timescales also by the central limit theorem), indicates that the construction of a "universal" probability distribution, capable to adequately describe the rainfall in all timescales, is a difficult task. A search in hydrological literature confirms this argument, as many different distributions have been proposed as appropriate models for different timescales or even for the same timescale, such as Normal, Skew-Normal, two- and three-parameter Log-Normal, Log-Normal mixtures, Generalized Logistic, Pearson Type III, Log-Pearson Type III, Wakeby, Generalized Pareto, Weibull, three- and four-parameter Kappa distribution, and many more. Here we study a single flexible four-parameter distribution for rainfall intensity (the JH distribution) and derive its basic statistics. This distribution incorporates as special cases many other well known distributions, and is capable of describing rainfall in a great range of timescales. Furthermore, we demonstrate the excellent fitting performance of the distribution in various rainfall samples from different areas and for timescales varying from sub-hourly to annual.

  16. Rainfall interception and distribution patterns of gross precipitation around an isolated Ficus benjamina tree in an urban area (United States)

    Guevara-Escobar, A.; González-Sosa, E.; Véliz-Chávez, C.; Ventura-Ramos, E.; Ramos-Salinas, M.


    SummaryInterception of rainfall by urban trees can be an important component of urban landscapes. This work evaluated rainfall interception and distribution patterns of gross precipitation around the canopy of a single evergreen tree Ficus benjamina (L.). Nineteen individual storms occurring from July to October, 2005, were analyzed. Total precipitation for the studied period was 152 mm representing 46% of the annual precipitation. Rainfall was partitioned as follows: 38.1% throughfall, 2.4% stemflow, and 59.5% interception by the tree canopy. Canopy saturation was estimated at 1.5 mm using a linear relationship between throughfall and stemflow. Average time for saturation of canopy was 19.5 min. The screen effect was important and accounted for 18.7% of the interception losses by the tree canopy alone. A kriging model was used to explore spatial distribution patterns of rainfall and the screen effect around the projected crown. The results indicated that the tree modifies the precipitation pattern around the tree and suggested that these patterns were similar among events.

  17. Hydrologic conditions and quality of rainfall and storm runoff for two agricultural areas of the Oso Creek Watershed, Nueces County, Texas, 2005-07 (United States)

    Ockerman, Darwin J.


    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, Coastal Bend Bays and Estuaries Program, and Texas AgriLife Research and Extension Center at Corpus Christi, studied hydrologic conditions and quality of rainfall and storm runoff of two (primarily) agricultural areas (subwatersheds) of the Oso Creek watershed in Nueces County, Texas. One area, the upper West Oso Creek subwatershed, is 5,145 acres. The other area, a subwatershed drained by an unnamed Oso Creek tributary (hereinafter, Oso Creek tributary), is 5,287 acres. Rainfall and runoff (streamflow) were continuously monitored at the outlets of the two subwatersheds during October 2005-September 2007. Fourteen rainfall samples were collected and analyzed for nutrients and major inorganic ions. Nineteen composite runoff samples (10 West Oso Creek, nine Oso Creek tributary) were collected and analyzed for nutrients, major inorganic ions, and pesticides. Twenty-two discrete suspended-sediment samples (10 West Oso Creek, 12 Oso Creek tributary) and 13 bacteria samples (eight West Oso Creek, five Oso Creek tributary) were collected and analyzed. These data were used to estimate, for selected constituents, rainfall deposition to and runoff loads and yields from the study subwatersheds. Quantities of fertilizers and pesticides applied in the subwatersheds were compared with quantities of nutrients and pesticides in rainfall and runoff. For the study period, total rainfall was greater than average. Most of the runoff at both subwatershed outlet sites occurred in response to a few specific storm periods. The West Oso Creek subwatershed produced more runoff during the study period than the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed, 10.83 inches compared with 7.28 inches. Runoff response was quicker and peak flows were higher in the West Oso Creek subwatershed than in the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed. Total nitrogen runoff yield for the 2-year study period averaged 2.61 pounds

  18. The chemistry of suspended particulate material in a highly contaminated embayment of Port Jackson (Australia) under quiescent, high-wind and heavy-rainfall conditions (United States)

    Birch, Gavin; O'Hea, Laura


    This study investigated physico-chemical characteristics of the water column and chemistry of suspended particulate material (SPM) under quiescent, high-wind and high-wind/heavy-rainfall conditions in Homebush Bay, a highly contaminated embayment of Port Jackson (Australia) to distinguish source and possible adverse effects to benthic and pelagic animals. Mean concentrations in surficial sediment were chemistry indicated these metals had multiple sources, i.e. the estuary, stormwater and industry. Mean total suspended solids (TSS) were 7, 17 and 20 mg L-1 during quiescent, high-rainfall and heavy rainfall/high wind conditions, respectively, whereas SPM Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn concentrations varied between 13-25, 166-259, 127-198, 38-82, 236-305 and 605-865 μg g-1, respectively under these conditions. TSS and total water metal concentrations were lowest during quiescent conditions. High TSS and metal loads in surface water characterised high-rainfall events. Wind-induced resuspension contributed the greatest mass of SPM and metals to the water column. Benthic animals may be adversely affected by Pb and Zn in sediment. Total water Cu and Zn concentrations may pose a risk to filter-feeding animals in the water column due to resuspension of contaminated sediment.

  19. Verlorenvlei - The first continuous Holocene high-resolution lake sediment record from the Winter Rainfall Zone of South Africa (United States)

    Haberzettl, T.; Kasper, T.; Lederer, M.; Wündsch, M.; Frenzel, P.; Zabel, M.; Kirsten, K. L.; Meadows, M. E.; Quick, L. J.; St-Onge, G.; Maeusbacher, R.


    Verlorenvlei is a coastal lake in the Winter Rainfall Zone of the Western Cape Province of South Africa. Up to now several attempts have been made to recover sediment cores from this lake. However, no continuous high-resolution record covering large parts of the Holocene has been available so far. Within the project RAIN (Regional Archives for Integrated iNvestigations) it was possible to recover a 14.2 m paired parallel core from the central part of Verlorenvlei. Investigations on recent surface sediment distributions (elemental composition and grain sizes) indicate that this sediment core is very well suited for paleoenvironmental reconstructions. Using a set of 23 radiocarbon ages, a chronology for the past 9,000 cal BP was established which suggests continuous sedimentation over this period. Preliminary lithological and geochemical investigations show that this record can be used for sea level reconstructions as the lake was periodically inundated by the ocean during the past 9,000 cal BP. This is recorded in distinctly elevated Ca and Sr contents as well as the occurrence of marine indicator species (snail and mussel shells) in parts of the sediment core. Thin, pale grey layers of fine sediment occurring at various sediment depths seem to reflect event related deposits. In terms of lithology, geochemical and magnetic composition, the upper 50 cm clearly differ from the rest of the record and indicate increased sediment supply from the catchment, which is likely linked to anthropogenic farming activities. In conclusion, the newly recovered sediment record from Verlorenvlei offers excellent potential for a detailed, high-resolution reconstruction of sea level changes, climate variations and anthropogenic impact during the past 9,000 cal BP in an area in which natural archives are very scarce or poorly dated.

  20. Hydrologic conditions and water quality of rainfall and storm runoff for two agricultural areas of the Oso Creek watershed, Nueces County, Texas, 2005-08 (United States)

    Ockerman, Darwin J.; Fernandez, Carlos J.


    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, Coastal Bend Bays and Estuaries Program, and Texas AgriLife Research and Extension Center at Corpus Christi, studied hydrologic conditions and water quality of rainfall and storm runoff of two primarily agricultural subwatersheds of the Oso Creek watershed in Nueces County, Texas. One area, the upper West Oso Creek subwatershed, is about 5,145 acres. The other area, a subwatershed drained by an unnamed tributary to Oso Creek (hereinafter, Oso Creek tributary), is about 5,287 acres. Rainfall and runoff (streamflow) were continuously monitored at the outlets of the two subwatersheds during the study period October 2005-September 2008. Seventeen rainfall samples were collected and analyzed for nutrients and major inorganic ions. Twenty-four composite runoff water-quality samples (12 at West Oso Creek, 12 at Oso Creek tributary) were collected and analyzed for nutrients, major inorganic ions, and pesticides. Twenty-six discrete suspended-sediment samples (12 West Oso Creek, 14 Oso Creek tributary) and 17 bacteria samples (10 West Oso Creek, 7 Oso Creek tributary) were collected and analyzed. These data were used to estimate, for selected constituents, rainfall deposition to and runoff loads and yields from the two subwatersheds. Quantities of fertilizers and pesticides applied in the two subwatersheds were compared with quantities of nutrients and pesticides in rainfall and runoff. For the study period, total rainfall was greater than average. Most of the runoff from the two subwatersheds occurred in response to a few specific storm periods. The West Oso Creek subwatershed produced more runoff during the study period than the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed, 13.95 inches compared with 9.45 inches. Runoff response was quicker and peak flows were higher in the West Oso Creek subwatershed than in the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed. Total nitrogen runoff yield for the 3

  1. Requirements for future development of small scale rainfall simulators (United States)

    Iserloh, Thomas; Ries, Johannes B.; Seeger, Manuel


    Rainfall simulation with small scale simulators is a method used worldwide to assess the generation of overland flow, soil erosion, infiltration and interrelated processes such as soil sealing, crusting, splash and redistribution of solids and solutes. Following the outcomes of the project "Comparability of simulation results of different rainfall simulators as input data for soil erosion modelling (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft - DFG, Project No. Ri 835/6-1)" and the "International Rainfall Simulator Workshop 2011" in Trier, the necessity for further technical improvements of simulators and strategies towards an adaption of designs and methods becomes obvious. Uniform measurements of artificially generated rainfall and comparative measurements on a prepared bare fallow with rainfall simulators used by European research groups showed limitations of the comparability of the results. The following requirements, essential for small portable rainfall simulators, were identified: (I) Low and efficient water consumption for use in areas with water shortage, (II) easy handling and control of test conditions, (III) homogeneous spatial rainfall distribution, (IV) best possible drop spectrum (physically), (V) reproducibility and knowledge of spatial distribution and drop spectrum, (VI) easy and fast training of operators to obtain reproducible experiments and (VII) good mobility and easy installation for use in remote areas and in regions where highly erosive rainfall events are rare or irregular. The presentation discusses possibilities for a common use of identical plot designs, rainfall intensities and nozzles.

  2. Validation of TRMM 3B42 V6 for estimation of mean annual rainfall over ungauged area in semiarid climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Akbari, Abolghasem; Daryabor, Farshid; Samah, Azizan Abu


    This research compares data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 V6 with data obtained from 19 synoptic rain gauges during the period 1998–2010 over the semiarid climate of Khorasan Razavi, Iran. Validation was performed using three spatial extents, including 1 TRMM grid face from......–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, the TRMM satellite can predict the spatial variation of the mean annual rainfall by 0.23, 0.43 and 0.38 for 1PTRM, 3PTRM and 5PTRM, respectively, at 19 stations. The agreement significantly increases by 0.88, 0.83 and 0.80 for 1PTRM, 3PTRM and 5PTRM, respectively, when gauges S05, S07...

  3. Identifying Areas of Potential Wetland Hydrology in Irrigated Croplands Using Aerial Image Interpretation and Analysis of Rainfall Normality (United States)


    reservoir seepage in a semi - arid landscape. Wetlands 33(5):799-810. Summerford, S. E. 2009. Characterization of soil/vegetation on flood the USDA-NRCS National Water and Climate Center (Berkowitz and Noble 2015). Monthly rainfall totals are compared with the 30th and 70th...precipitation data obtained from the Nicolaus 2 Climate Station in southern Sutter County at approximately 43 ft in elevation. The Nicolaus 2 Climate

  4. Rainfall Simulation: methods, research questions and challenges (United States)

    Ries, J. B.; Iserloh, T.


    In erosion research, rainfall simulations are used for the improvement of process knowledge as well as in the field for the assessment of overland flow generation, infiltration, and erosion rates. In all these fields of research, rainfall experiments have become an indispensable part of the research methods. In this context, small portable rainfall simulators with small test-plot sizes of one square-meter or even less, and devices of low weight and water consumption are in demand. Accordingly, devices with manageable technical effort like nozzle-type simulators seem to prevail against larger simulators. The reasons are obvious: lower costs and less time consumption needed for mounting enable a higher repetition rate. Regarding the high number of research questions, of different fields of application, and not least also due to the great technical creativity of our research staff, a large number of different experimental setups is available. Each of the devices produces a different rainfall, leading to different kinetic energy amounts influencing the soil surface and accordingly, producing different erosion results. Hence, important questions contain the definition, the comparability, the measurement and the simulation of natural rainfall and the problem of comparability in general. Another important discussion topic will be the finding of an agreement on an appropriate calibration method for the simulated rainfalls, in order to enable a comparison of the results of different rainfall simulator set-ups. In most of the publications, only the following "nice" sentence can be read: "Our rainfall simulator generates a rainfall spectrum that is similar to natural rainfall!". The most substantial and critical properties of a simulated rainfall are the drop-size distribution, the fall velocities of the drops, and the spatial distribution of the rainfall on the plot-area. In a comparison of the most important methods, the Laser Distrometer turned out to be the most up

  5. Trends in Heavy Rainfalls in the Observed Record in Selected Areas of the U.S. (Invited) (United States)

    Bonnin, G. M.


    There is popular perception driven by statements in authoritative literature that heavy rainfalls have become more frequent, and that this trend will increase with global warming. Most of the literature examines this question from the point of view of climatology using definitions of “heavy”, “very heavy”, or “extreme” rainfall, which are different from those commonly used by civil engineers. These differences in meaning have led to a gap in the understanding of the impacts of climate change on precipitation frequency estimates, and hence on the observed and potential impact of climate change on engineering hydrology. This presentation identifies the differences in meaning used by the climate and civil engineering communities and examines trends in the observed record in precipitation frequency estimates used by Civil Engineers for the design of civil infrastructure. We look at trends in the number of exceedances of thresholds for a variety of precipitation frequencies and event durations, with thresholds taken from Volumes of NOAA Atlas 14, “Precipitation-Frequency Atlas of the United States”. NOAA Atlas 14 provides Federal Government precipitation frequency estimates for the U.S., and is the source of civil engineering, probabilistic design standards for rainfall, and for the regulations issued by many Federal, State and local governments. We quantify observed trends and place them in the context of the uncertainty associated with the precipitation frequency estimates themselves

  6. Seasonality in cholera dynamics: A rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns in endemic areas (United States)

    Baracchini, Theo; King, Aaron A.; Bouma, Menno J.; Rodó, Xavier; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Pascual, Mercedes


    Seasonal patterns in cholera dynamics exhibit pronounced variability across geographical regions, showing single or multiple peaks at different times of the year. Although multiple hypotheses related to local climate variables have been proposed, an understanding of this seasonal variation remains incomplete. The historical Bengal region, which encompasses the full range of cholera's seasonality observed worldwide, provides a unique opportunity to gain insights on underlying environmental drivers. Here, we propose a mechanistic, rainfall-temperature driven, stochastic epidemiological model which explicitly accounts for the fluctuations of the aquatic reservoir, and analyze with this model the historical dataset of cholera mortality in the Bengal region. Parameters are inferred with a recently developed sequential Monte Carlo method for likelihood maximization in partially observed Markov processes. Results indicate that the hydrological regime is a major driver of the seasonal dynamics of cholera. Rainfall tends to buffer the propagation of the disease in wet regions due to the longer residence times of water in the environment and an associated dilution effect, whereas it enhances cholera resurgence in dry regions. Moreover, the dynamics of the environmental water reservoir determine whether the seasonality is unimodal or bimodal, as well as its phase relative to the monsoon. Thus, the full range of seasonal patterns can be explained based solely on the local variation of rainfall and temperature. Given the close connection between cholera seasonality and environmental conditions, a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms would allow the better management and planning of public health policies with respect to climate variability and climate change.

  7. Satellite-derived estimates of forest leaf area index in southwest Western Australia are not tightly coupled to interannual variations in rainfall: implications for groundwater decline in a drying climate. (United States)

    Smettem, Keith R J; Waring, Richard H; Callow, John N; Wilson, Melissa; Mu, Qiaozhen


    There is increasing concern that widespread forest decline could occur in regions of the world where droughts are predicted to increase in frequency and severity as a result of climate change. The average annual leaf area index (LAI) is an indicator of canopy cover and the difference between the annual maximum and minimum LAI is an indicator of annual leaf turnover. In this study, we analyzed satellite-derived estimates of monthly LAI across forested coastal catchments of southwest Western Australia over a 12 year period (2000-2011) that included the driest year on record for the last 60 years. We observed that over the 12 year study period, the spatial pattern of average annual satellite-derived LAI values was linearly related to mean annual rainfall. However, interannual changes to LAI in response to changes in annual rainfall were far less than expected from the long-term LAI-rainfall trend. This buffered response was investigated using a physiological growth model and attributed to availability of deep soil moisture and/or groundwater storage. The maintenance of high LAIs may be linked to a long-term decline in areal average underground water storage and diminished summer flows, with an emerging trend toward more ephemeral flow regimes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. A Rationale for Pollutograph Evaluation in Ungauged Areas, Using Daily Rainfall Patterns: Case Studies of the Apulian Region in Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Gorgoglione


    Full Text Available In the context of the implementation of sustainable water treatment technologies for soil pollution prevention, a methodology that try to overcome the lack of runoff quality data in Puglia (Southern Italy is firstly tackled in this paper. It provides a tool to obtain total suspended solid (TSS pollutographs in areas without availability of monitoring campaigns. The proposed procedure is based on the relationship between rainfall characteristics and pollutant wash-off. In particular, starting from the evaluation of the observed regional rainfall patterns by using a rainfall generator model, the storm water management model (SWMM was applied on five case studies located in different climatic subareas. The quantity SWMM parameters were evaluated starting from the drainage network and catchments characteristics, while the quality parameters were obtained from results of a monitoring campaign conducted for quality model calibration and validation with reference to the pollutograph’s shape and the peak-time. The research yields a procedure useful to evaluate the first flush phenomenon in ungauged sites and, in particular, it provides interesting information for designing efficient and sustainable drainage systems for first flush treatment and diffuse pollution treatment.

  9. ICUD-0420 Testing high resolution synthetic rainfall time series representing current and future climates on CSO and other indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Davidsen, S.; Löwe, Roland


    Combined sewer systems have a long technical lifetime, thus climate change must be taken into consideration when designing new CSO structures, basins, and pipe system enhancements. At the same time, the performance is highly dependent on antecedent conditions in the sewer system and is therefore...... best modelled using LTS. In the present study, we calculate indicators related to CSO statistics using synthetic time series created with different methodologies for both present and future climatic conditions. The methodology for synthetic rainfall generation influences the obtained results along...

  10. Monitoring Niger River Floods from satellite Rainfall Estimates : overall skill and rainfall uncertainty propagation. (United States)

    Gosset, Marielle; Casse, Claire; Peugeot, christophe; boone, aaron; pedinotti, vanessa


    Global measurement of rainfall offers new opportunity for hydrological monitoring, especially for some of the largest Tropical river where the rain gauge network is sparse and radar is not available. Member of the GPM constellation, the new French-Indian satellite Mission Megha-Tropiques (MT) dedicated to the water and energy budget in the tropical atmosphere contributes to a better monitoring of rainfall in the inter-tropical zone. As part of this mission, research is developed on the use of satellite rainfall products for hydrological research or operational application such as flood monitoring. A key issue for such applications is how to account for rainfall products biases and uncertainties, and how to propagate them into the end user models ? Another important question is how to choose the best space-time resolution for the rainfall forcing, given that both model performances and rain-product uncertainties are resolution dependent. This paper analyses the potential of satellite rainfall products combined with hydrological modeling to monitor the Niger river floods in the city of Niamey, Niger. A dramatic increase of these floods has been observed in the last decades. The study focuses on the 125000 km2 area in the vicinity of Niamey, where local runoff is responsible for the most extreme floods recorded in recent years. Several rainfall products are tested as forcing to the SURFEX-TRIP hydrological simulations. Differences in terms of rainfall amount, number of rainy days, spatial extension of the rainfall events and frequency distribution of the rain rates are found among the products. Their impacts on the simulated outflow is analyzed. The simulations based on the Real time estimates produce an excess in the discharge. For flood prediction, the problem can be overcome by a prior adjustment of the products - as done here with probability matching - or by analysing the simulated discharge in terms of percentile or anomaly. All tested products exhibit some

  11. Multivariate Analysis of Erosivity Indices and Rainfall Physical Characteristics Associated with Rainfall Patterns in Rio de Janeiro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roriz Luciano Machado


    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The identification of areas with greater erosive potential is important for planning soil and water conservation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the physical characteristics of rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and their interactions with rainfall patterns through multivariate statistical analysis. Rainfall depth, kinetic energy, 30-min intensity (I30, duration of rainfall events, and the erosivity indices KE >10, KE >25, and EI30 in 36 locations (stations were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA and canonical discriminant analysis (CDA. Based on evaluation of the respective historical series of hyetographs, it was found that the advanced pattern occurs with highest frequency (51.8 %, followed by the delayed pattern (26.1 %, and by the intermediate pattern (22.1 %. All the evaluated rainfall characteristics have high response capacity in describing localities and rainfall patterns through PCA and CDA. In CDA, the Tukey test (p<0.05 applied to the scores of the first canonical discriminant function (CDF1 allowed differentiation of the stations with respect to the rainfall and erosivity characteristics for the advanced and delayed patterns. In the delayed pattern, the localities of Angra dos Reis, Campos, Eletrobrás, Manuel Duarte, Santa Isabel do Rio Preto, Tanguá, Teresópolis, Vila Mambucaba, and Xerém had the highest CDF1 scores, indicating that they have rainfalls with higher depth, I30, and duration because the standardized canonical coefficient (SCC and the correlation coefficient (“r” of these characteristics were positive. The rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro differ from one locality to another in relation to the advanced and delayed rainfall patterns, mainly due to the physical characteristics of rainfall depth, I30, and duration, indicating a higher risk of soil loss and runoff in the localities where rainfall events with the delayed pattern prevail.

  12. Rainfall erosivity index for the Ghana Atomic Energy Commission site. (United States)

    Essel, Paul; Glover, Eric T; Yeboah, Serwaa; Adjei-Kyereme, Yaw; Yawo, Israel Nutifafa Doyi; Nyarku, Mawutoli; Asumadu-Sakyi, Godfred S; Gbeddy, Gustav Kudjoe; Agyiri, Yvette Agyiriba; Ameho, Evans Mawuli; Aberikae, Emmanuel Atule


    Rainfall erosivity is the potential ability for rainfall to cause soil loss. The purpose of this study was to estimate the rainfall erosivity index for the Ghana Atomic Energy Commission site in order to compute the surface erosion rate. Monthly rainfall data, for the period 2003-2012 were used to compute annual rainfall erosivity indices for the site, using the Modified Fournier index. Values of the annual rainfall erosivity indices ranged from 73.5 mm for 2004 to 200.4 mm for the year 2003 with a mean annual erosivity index of 129.8 mm for the period. The Pearson's Coefficient of Correlation was used to establish the relationship between annual rainfall and annual rainfall erosivity. This showed a high degree of positive relationship (r = 0.7) for the study area. The computed mean annual erosivity index revealed that the site is in the high erosion risk zone. Therefore, it is necessary to develop soil protection and management strategies to protect the soil from erosion.

  13. Rainfall and throughfall chemistry in the Atlantic Forest: a comparison between urban and natural areas (São Paulo State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. Forti


    Full Text Available Two areas in the Atlantic Forest (São Paulo State, Brazil, with contrasting environments in respect of human occupation, were monitored from 1999 to 2001. One area named PEFI (23°38'08''-23°40'18'' S and 46°36'48''-46°38'00'' W at an altitude of 798 m a.s.l., 526.4 ha in area and about 50 km from the sea, lies in a State Park within the largest metropolis of South America - São Paulo. The other area, named CUNHA (between 23°13'18'' and 23°16'10'' S and 45°02'53'' and 45°05'15'' W about 1050 m a.s.l. with an area of 2854 ha and about 15 km from the sea, is also within a State Park in the Atlantic Forest, but is surrounded by rural areas and small villages. For each area, the rainfall and throughfall chemistry were examined and pH and Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, NH4+, Cl-, NO3- and SO42- as well as trace metals were determined. Compared with PEFI, CUNHA is characterised by low chemical fluxes and the largest differences are for the ions such as Ca2+, H+, NO3- and SO42- which are mainly anthropogenic in origin. Differences in throughfall chemical fluxes are linked to the nutritional status of the trees.

  14. Evaluation of satellite and simulated rainfall products for hydrological applications in the Notwane catchment, Botswana (United States)

    Kenabatho, P. K.; Parida, B. P.; Moalafhi, D. B.


    In semi-arid catchments, hydrological modeling, water resources planning and management are hampered by insufficient spatial rainfall data which is usually derived from limited rain gauge networks. Satellite products are potential candidates to augment the limited spatial rainfall data in these areas. In this paper, the utility of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) product (3B42 v7) is evaluated using data from the Notwane catchment in Botswana. In addition, rainfall simulations obtained from a multi-site stochastic rainfall model based on the generalised linear models (GLMs) were used as additional spatial rainfall estimates. These rainfall products were compared to the observed rainfall data obtained from six (6) rainfall stations available in the catchment for the period 1998-2012. The results show that in general the two approaches produce reasonable spatial rainfall estimates. However, the TRMM products provided better spatial rainfall estimates compared to the GLM rainfall outputs on an average, as more than 90% of the monthly rainfall variations were explained by the TRMM compared to 80% from the GLMs. However, there is still uncertainty associated mainly with limited rainfall stations, and the inability of the two products to capture unusually high rainfall values in the data sets. Despite this observation, rainfall indices computed to further assess the daily rainfall products (i.e. rainfall occurrence and amounts, length of dry spells) were adequately represented by the TRMM data compared to the GLMs. Performance from the GLMs is expected to improve with addition of further rainfall predictors. A combination of these rainfall products allows for reasonable spatial rainfall estimates and temporal (short term future) rainfall simulations from the TRMM and GLMs, respectively. The results have significant implications on water resources planning and management in the catchment which has, for the past three years, been experiencing prolonged

  15. Estimation of Real-Time Flood Risk on Roads Based on Rainfall Calculated by the Revised Method of Missing Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eunmi Kim


    Full Text Available Recently, flood damage by frequent localized downpours in cities is on the increase on account of abnormal climate phenomena and the growth of impermeable areas due to urbanization. This study suggests a method to estimate real-time flood risk on roads for drivers based on the accumulated rainfall. The amount of rainfall of a road link, which is an intensive type, is calculated by using the revised method of missing rainfall in meteorology, because the rainfall is not measured on roads directly. To process in real time with a computer, we use the inverse distance weighting (IDW method, which is a suitable method in the computing system and is commonly used in relation to precipitation due to its simplicity. With real-time accumulated rainfall, the flooding history, rainfall range causing flooding from previous rainfall information and frequency probability of precipitation are used to determine the flood risk on roads. The result of simulation using the suggested algorithms shows the high concordance rate between actual flooded areas in the past and flooded areas derived from the simulation for the research region in Busan, Korea.

  16. Temporal variation in methane emissions in a shallow lake at a southern mid latitude during high and low rainfall periods. (United States)

    Fusé, Victoria S; Priano, M Eugenia; Williams, Karen E; Gere, José I; Guzmán, Sergio A; Gratton, Roberto; Juliarena, M Paula


    The global methane (CH4) emission of lakes is estimated at between 6 and 16 % of total natural CH4 emissions. However, these values have a high uncertainty due to the wide variety of lakes with important differences in their morphological, biological, and physicochemical parameters and the relatively scarse data from southern mid-latitude lakes. For these reasons, we studied CH4 fluxes and CH4 dissolved in water in a typical shallow lake in the Pampean Wetland, Argentina, during four periods of consecutive years (April 2011-March 2015) preceded by different rainfall conditions. Other water physicochemical parameters were measured and meteorological data were reported. We identified three different states of the lake throughout the study as the result of the irregular alternation between high and low rainfall periods, with similar water temperature values but with important variations in dissolved oxygen, chemical oxygen demand, water turbidity, electric conductivity, and water level. As a consequence, marked seasonal and interannual variations occurred in CH4 dissolved in water and CH4 fluxes from the lake. These temporal variations were best reflected by water temperature and depth of the Secchi disk, as a water turbidity estimation, which had a significant double correlation with CH4 dissolved in water. The mean CH4 fluxes values were 0.22 and 4.09 mg/m2/h for periods with low and high water turbidity, respectively. This work suggests that water temperature and turbidity measurements could serve as indicator parameters of the state of the lake and, therefore, of its behavior as either a CH4 source or sink.

  17. Rainfall monitoring with microwave link networks -state of the art (United States)

    de Vos, Lotte; Overeem, Aart; Ríos Gaona, Manuel; van Leth, Tommy; Uijlenhoet, Remko


    For the purpose of hydrological applications, meteorology, climate monitoring and agriculture, accurate high resolution rainfall monitoring is highly desirable. Often used techniques to measure rainfall include rain gauge networks and radar. However, accurate rainfall information is lacking in large areas in the world, and the number of rain gauges is even severely declining in Europe, South-America and Africa. The investments required for the installation and maintenance of dense sensor networks can form a large obstacle. Over the past decade, various investigations have shown that microwave links from cellular communication networks may be used for rainfall monitoring. These commercial networks are installed for the purpose of cellular communication. These consist of antennas that transmit microwave link signals through the atmosphere over a path of typically several kilometers. Microwave signals are sensitive to rainfall at the frequencies that are typically used. The loss of signal (attenuation) over the link-path, which is logged in real-time by cellular communication companies for quality monitoring, can therefore be interpreted as a rainfall measurement. In recent years, various techniques have been developed to quantitatively determine rainfall from these microwave link attenuations. An overview of error sources in this process, quantitative rainfall determination techniques, as well as the results of various validation studies are provided. These studies show that there is considerable potential in using commercial microwave link networks for rainfall monitoring. This is a promising development, as these networks cover 20% of the land surface of the earth and have high density, especially in urban areas where there is generally a lack of in situ ground measurements.

  18. Analysis of spatial autocorrelation patterns of heavy and super-heavy rainfall in Iran (United States)

    Rousta, Iman; Doostkamian, Mehdi; Haghighi, Esmaeil; Ghafarian Malamiri, Hamid Reza; Yarahmadi, Parvane


    Rainfall is a highly variable climatic element, and rainfall-related changes occur in spatial and temporal dimensions within a regional climate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial autocorrelation changes of Iran's heavy and super-heavy rainfall over the past 40 years. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data of 664 meteorological stations between 1971 and 2011 are used. To analyze the changes in rainfall within a decade, geostatistical techniques like spatial autocorrelation analysis of hot spots, based on the Getis-Ord G i statistic, are employed. Furthermore, programming features in MATLAB, Surfer, and GIS are used. The results indicate that the Caspian coast, the northwest and west of the western foothills of the Zagros Mountains of Iran, the inner regions of Iran, and southern parts of Southeast and Northeast Iran, have the highest likelihood of heavy and super-heavy rainfall. The spatial pattern of heavy rainfall shows that, despite its oscillation in different periods, the maximum positive spatial autocorrelation pattern of heavy rainfall includes areas of the west, northwest and west coast of the Caspian Sea. On the other hand, a negative spatial autocorrelation pattern of heavy rainfall is observed in central Iran and parts of the east, particularly in Zabul. Finally, it is found that patterns of super-heavy rainfall are similar to those of heavy rainfall.

  19. Measuring urban rainfall using microwave links from commercial cellular communication networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overeem, A.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.


    The estimation of rainfall using commercial microwave links is a new and promising measurement technique. Commercial link networks cover large parts of the land surface of the earth and have a high density, particularly in urban areas. Rainfall attenuates the electromagnetic signals transmitted

  20. Urban rainfall monitoring with crowdsourced automatic weather stations in Amsterdam (United States)

    de Vos, Lotte; Leijnse, Hidde; Overeem, Aart; Uijlenhoet, Remko


    The high density of built-up areas and resulting imperviousness of the land surface makes urban areas vulnerable to extreme rainfall, which can lead to considerable damage. In order to design and manage cities to be able to deal with the growing number of extreme rainfall events, rainfall data is required at higher temporal and spatial resolutions than those needed for rural catchments. However, the density of operational rainfall monitoring networks managed by local or national authorities is typically low in urban areas. A growing number of automatic personal weather stations (PWSs) link rainfall measurements to online platforms. Here, we examine the potential of such crowdsourced datasets for obtaining the desired resolution and quality of rainfall measurements for the capital of the Netherlands. Data from 63 stations in Amsterdam (˜575 km2}) that measure rainfall over at least 4 months in a 17-month period are evaluated. In addition, a detailed assessment is made of three Netatmo stations, the largest contributor to this dataset, in an experimental set-up. The sensor performance in the experimental set-up and the density of the PWS-network are promising. However, features in the online platforms, like rounding and thresholds, cause changes from the original time series, resulting in considerable errors in the datasets obtained. These errors are especially large during low intensity rainfall, although they can be reduced by accumulating rainfall over longer intervals. Accumulation improves the correlation coefficient with gauge-adjusted radar data from 0.48 at 5 min intervals to 0.60 at hourly intervals. Spatial rainfall correlation functions derived from PWS data show much more small-scale variability than those based on gauge-adjusted radar data and those found in similar research using dedicated rain gauge networks. This can largely be attributed to the noise in the PWS data resulting from both the measurement setup and the processes occurring in the data

  1. Heterogeneity of Dutch rainfall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Witter, J.V.


    Rainfall data for the Netherlands have been used in this study to investigate aspects of heterogeneity of rainfall, in particular local differences in rainfall levels, time trends in rainfall, and local differences in rainfall trend. The possible effect of urbanization and industrialization on the

  2. Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand (United States)

    Duangdai, Eakkapong; Likasiri, Chulin


    In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973-2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year.

  3. High Surface Area Tunnels in Hexagonal WO₃. (United States)

    Sun, Wanmei; Yeung, Michael T; Lech, Andrew T; Lin, Cheng-Wei; Lee, Chain; Li, Tianqi; Duan, Xiangfeng; Zhou, Jun; Kaner, Richard B


    High surface area in h-WO3 has been verified from the intracrystalline tunnels. This bottom-up approach differs from conventional templating-type methods. The 3.67 Å diameter tunnels are characterized by low-pressure CO2 adsorption isotherms with nonlocal density functional theory fitting, transmission electron microscopy, and thermal gravimetric analysis. These open and rigid tunnels absorb H(+) and Li(+), but not Na(+) in aqueous electrolytes without inducing a phase transformation, accessing both internal and external active sites. Moreover, these tunnel structures demonstrate high specific pseudocapacitance and good stability in an H2SO4 aqueous electrolyte. Thus, the high surface area created from 3.67 Å diameter tunnels in h-WO3 shows potential applications in electrochemical energy storage, selective ion transfer, and selective gas adsorption.

  4. Global-Scale Associations of Vegetation Phenology with Rainfall and Temperature at a High Spatio-Temporal Resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Clinton


    Full Text Available Phenology response to climatic variables is a vital indicator for understanding changes in biosphere processes as related to possible climate change. We investigated global phenology relationships to precipitation and land surface temperature (LST at high spatial and temporal resolution for calendar years 2008–2011. We used cross-correlation between MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI, MODIS LST and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN gridded rainfall to map phenology relationships at 1-km spatial resolution and weekly temporal resolution. We show these data to be rich in spatiotemporal information, illustrating distinct phenology patterns as a result of complex overlapping gradients of climate, ecosystem and land use/land cover. The data are consistent with broad-scale, coarse-resolution modeled ecosystem limitations to moisture, temperature and irradiance. We suggest that high-resolution phenology data are useful as both an input and complement to land use/land cover classifiers and for understanding climate change vulnerability in natural and anthropogenic landscapes.

  5. Rainfall control of debris-flow triggering in the Réal Torrent, Southern French Prealps (United States)

    Bel, Coraline; Liébault, Frédéric; Navratil, Oldrich; Eckert, Nicolas; Bellot, Hervé; Fontaine, Firmin; Laigle, Dominique


    This paper investigates the occurrence of debris flow due to rainfall forcing in the Réal Torrent, a very active debris flow-prone catchment in the Southern French Prealps. The study is supported by a 4-year record of flow responses and rainfall events, from three high-frequency monitoring stations equipped with geophones, flow stage sensors, digital cameras, and rain gauges measuring rainfall at 5-min intervals. The classic method of rainfall intensity-duration (ID) threshold was used, and a specific emphasis was placed on the objective identification of rainfall events, as well as on the discrimination of flow responses observed above the ID threshold. The results show that parameters used to identify rainfall events significantly affect the ID threshold and are likely to explain part of the threshold variability reported in the literature. This is especially the case regarding the minimum duration of rain interruption (MDRI) between two distinct rainfall events. In the Réal Torrent, a 3-h MDRI appears to be representative of the local rainfall regime. A systematic increase in the ID threshold with drainage area was also observed from the comparison of the three stations, as well as from the compilation of data from experimental debris-flow catchments. A logistic regression used to separate flow responses above the ID threshold, revealed that the best predictors are the 5-min maximum rainfall intensity, the 48-h antecedent rainfall, the rainfall amount and the number of days elapsed since the end of winter (used as a proxy of sediment supply). This emphasizes the critical role played by short intense rainfall sequences that are only detectable using high time-resolution rainfall records. It also highlights the significant influence of antecedent conditions and the seasonal fluctuations of sediment supply.

  6. Radar rainfall estimation for the identification of debris-flow precipitation thresholds (United States)

    Marra, Francesco; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Borga, Marco


    Identification of rainfall thresholds for the prediction of debris-flow occurrence is a common approach for warning procedures. Traditionally the debris-flow triggering rainfall is derived from the closest available raingauge. However, the spatial and temporal variability of intense rainfall on mountainous areas, where debris flows take place, may lead to large uncertainty in point-based estimates. Nikolopoulos et al. (2014) have shown that this uncertainty translates into a systematic underestimation of the rainfall thresholds, leading to a step degradation of the performances of the rainfall threshold for identification of debris flows occurrence under operational conditions. A potential solution to this limitation lies on use of rainfall estimates from weather radar. Thanks to their high spatial and temporal resolutions, these estimates offer the advantage of providing rainfall information over the actual debris flow location. The aim of this study is to analyze the value of radar precipitation estimations for the identification of debris flow precipitation thresholds. Seven rainfall events that triggered debris flows in the Adige river basin (Eastern Italian Alps) are analyzed using data from a dense raingauge network and a C-Band weather radar. Radar data are elaborated by using a set of correction algorithms specifically developed for weather radar rainfall application in mountainous areas. Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of debris flows are identified in the form of average intensity-duration power law curves using a frequentist approach by using both radar rainfall estimates and raingauge data. Sampling uncertainty associated to the derivation of the thresholds is assessed by using a bootstrap technique (Peruccacci et al. 2012). Results show that radar-based rainfall thresholds are largely exceeding those obtained by using raingauge data. Moreover, the differences between the two thresholds may be related to the spatial characteristics (i.e., spatial

  7. Analysis of Spatial Characteristics of Rainfall for Optimal Observation Network in Korea (United States)

    Park, Sojung; Lee, Ebony; Park, Seon Ki; Park, Yunho; Lee, Jeung Whan


    Accurate prediction of high impact weather phenomena can reduce damages to people as well as property. Among the meteorological disasters occurred in Korea, heavy rainfall causes the second largest damage, next to typhoons. Therefore, proper observation network of rainfall is important for better understanding of the rainfall characteristics and for more accurate rainfall forecast over Korea. Precipitating weather systems in Korea are highly influenced by East Asian Monsoon, hence they have not only high seasonal variation in rainfall, but also high spatial variation due to complex topographic characteristics. In this study, we identify the spatial characteristics of rainfall in Korea with the geostatistical analyses, including autocorrelogram, variogram, Moran's I, and general G. We develop a testbed system to design an appropriate observation network for rainfall, which can be applied to other high impact weather systems. Geostatistical analyses are conducted using data sets collected from Automatic Weather Stations (AWS; 600 rain gauge data), global/regional numerical weather prediction outputs (i.e., temperature, geopotential height and humidity), Himawari satellite measurements (i.e., water vapor) over Korea in a period of 2013 - 2015. A heavy rainfall is defined as a case with the rainfall rate larger than 80 mm/24 hr over at least one station. In order to consider different characteristics of heavy rainfall systems, we have classified them into several groups: isolated thunderstorms, convective bands, squall lines, cloud clusters, migratory cyclones, typhoons, Changma (monsoon) frontal systems, and showers. We also perform the spatial analyses of rainfall by dividing Korea into several areas based on topographic characteristics. Our results show different properties for different heavy rainfall systems in terms of correlation distances, separation distances, clustered vs. random patterns, and hot vs. cold spots; thus suggesting clues for optimal observation

  8. 20-50-day oscillation of summer Yangtze rainfall in response to intraseasonal variations in the subtropical high over the western North Pacific and South China Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mao, Jiangyu; Wu, Guoxiong [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), P.O. Box 9804, Beijing (China); Sun, Zhang [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), P.O. Box 9804, Beijing (China); Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory, Hangzhou (China)


    The spatio-temporal variability in summer rainfall within eastern China is identified based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of daily rain-gauge precipitation data for the period 1979-2003. Spatial coherence of rainfall is found in the Yangtze Basin, and a wavelet transform is applied to the corresponding principal component to capture the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of Yangtze rainfall. The ensemble mean wavelet spectrum, representing statistically significant intraseasonal variability, shows a predominant oscillation in summer Yangtze rainfall with a period of 20-50 days; a 10-20-day oscillation is pronounced during June and July. This finding suggests that the 20-50-day oscillation is a major agent in regulating summer Yangtze rainfall. Composite analyses reveal that the 20-50-day oscillation of summer Yangtze rainfall arises in response to intraseasonal variations in the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), which in turn is modulated by a Rossby wave-like coupled circulation-convection system that propagates northward and northwestward from the equatorial western Pacific. When an anomalous cyclone associated with this Rossby wave-like system reaches the South China Sea (SCS) and Philippine Sea, the WNPSH retreats northeastward due to a reduction in local pressure. Under these conditions, strong monsoonal southwesterlies blow mainly toward the SCS-Philippine Sea, while dry conditions form in the Yangtze Basin, with a pronounced divergent flow pattern. In contrast, the movement of an anomalous anticyclone over the SCS-Philippine Sea results in the southwestward extension of the WNPSH; consequently, the tropical monsoonal southwesterlies veer to the northeast over the SCS and then converge toward the Yangtze Basin, producing wet conditions. Therefore, the 20-50-day oscillation of Yangtze rainfall is also manifest as a seesaw pattern in convective anomalies between the Yangtze Basin and the SCS-Philippine Sea. A considerable zonal

  9. High surface area fibrous silica nanoparticles

    KAUST Repository

    Polshettiwar, Vivek


    Disclosed are high surface area nanoparticles that have a fibrous morphology. The nanoparticles have a plurality of fibers, wherein each fiber is in contact with one other fiber and each fiber has a length of between about 1 nm and about 5000 nm. Also disclosed are applications of the nanoparticles of the present invention, and methods of fabrication of the nanoparticles of the present invention.

  10. Impact of high-resolution data assimilation of GPS zenith delay on Mediterranean heavy rainfall forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Boniface


    Full Text Available Impact of GPS (Global Positioning System data assimilation is assessed here using a high-resolution numerical weather prediction system at 2.5 km horizontal resolution. The Zenithal Tropospheric Delay (ZTD GPS data from mesoscale networks are assimilated with the 3DVAR AROME data assimilation scheme. Data from more than 280 stations over the model domain have been assimilated during 15-day long assimilation cycles prior each of the two studied events. The results of these assimilation cycles show that the assimilation of GPS ZTD with the AROME system performs well in producing analyses closer to the ZTD observations in average. Then the impacts of assimilating GPS data on the precipitation forecast have been evaluated. For the first case, only the AROME runs starting a few hours prior the triggering of the convective system are able to simulate the convective precipitation. The assimilation of GPS ZTD observations improves the simulation of the spatial extent of the precipitation, but slightly underestimates the heaviest precipitation in that case compared with the experiment without GPS. The accuracy of the precipitation forecast for the second case is much better. The analyses from the control assimilation cycle provide already a good description of the atmosphere state that cannot be further improved by the assimilation of GPS observations. Only for the latest day (22 November 2007, significant differences have been found between the two parallel cycles. In that case, the assimilation of GPS ZTD allows to improve the first 6 to 12 h of the precipitation forecast.

  11. Impact of high-resolution data assimilation of GPS zenith delay on Mediterranean heavy rainfall forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boniface, K.; Champollion, C.; Chery, J.; Doerflinger, E. [Geosciences Montpellier, UMR 5243 CNRS-UM2 (France); Ducrocq, V.; Jaubert, G.; Yan, X.; Brousseau, P. [GAME-CNRM, CNRS-Meteo-France, Toulouse (France); Masson, F. [UMR 7516-IPGS-CNRS-EOST, Strasbourg (France)


    Impact of GPS (Global Positioning System) data assimilation is assessed here using a high-resolution numerical weather prediction system at 2.5 km horizontal resolution. The Zenithal Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) GPS data from mesoscale networks are assimilated with the 3DVAR AROME data assimilation scheme. Data from more than 280 stations over the model domain have been assimilated during 15-day long assimilation cycles prior each of the two studied events. The results of these assimilation cycles show that the assimilation of GPS ZTD with the AROME system performs well in producing analyses closer to the ZTD observations in average. Then the impacts of assimilating GPS data on the precipitation forecast have been evaluated. For the first case, only the AROME runs starting a few hours prior the triggering of the convective system are able to simulate the convective precipitation. The assimilation of GPS ZTD observations improves the simulation of the spatial extent of the precipitation, but slightly underestimates the heaviest precipitation in that case compared with the experiment without GPS. The accuracy of the precipitation forecast for the second case is much better. The analyses from the control assimilation cycle provide already a good description of the atmosphere state that cannot be further improved by the assimilation of GPS observations. Only for the latest day (22 November 2007), significant differences have been found between the two parallel cycles. In that case, the assimilation of GPS ZTD allows to improve the first 6 to 12 h of the precipitation forecast. (orig.)

  12. Impact of high-resolution data assimilation of GPS zenith delay on Mediterranean heavy rainfall forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Boniface


    Full Text Available Impact of GPS (Global Positioning System data assimilation is assessed here using a high-resolution numerical weather prediction system at 2.5 km horizontal resolution. The Zenithal Tropospheric Delay (ZTD GPS data from mesoscale networks are assimilated with the 3DVAR AROME data assimilation scheme. Data from more than 280 stations over the model domain have been assimilated during 15-day long assimilation cycles prior each of the two studied events. The results of these assimilation cycles show that the assimilation of GPS ZTD with the AROME system performs well in producing analyses closer to the ZTD observations in average.

    Then the impacts of assimilating GPS data on the precipitation forecast have been evaluated. For the first case, only the AROME runs starting a few hours prior the triggering of the convective system are able to simulate the convective precipitation. The assimilation of GPS ZTD observations improves the simulation of the spatial extent of the precipitation, but slightly underestimates the heaviest precipitation in that case compared with the experiment without GPS. The accuracy of the precipitation forecast for the second case is much better. The analyses from the control assimilation cycle provide already a good description of the atmosphere state that cannot be further improved by the assimilation of GPS observations. Only for the latest day (22 November 2007, significant differences have been found between the two parallel cycles. In that case, the assimilation of GPS ZTD allows to improve the first 6 to 12 h of the precipitation forecast.

  13. Pattern Analysis of El Nino and La Nina Phenomenon Based on Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Rainfall Intensity using Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) in West Java Area (United States)

    Prasetyo, Yudo; Nabilah, Farras


    Climate change occurs in 1998-2016 brings significant alteration in the earth surface. It is affects an extremely anomaly temperature such as El Nino and La Nina or mostly known as ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). West Java is one of the regions in Indonesia that encounters the impact of this phenomenon. Climate change due to ENSO also affects food production and other commodities. In this research, processing data method is conducted using programming language to process SST data and rainfall data from 1998 to 2016. The data are sea surface temperature from NOAA satellite, SST Reynolds (Sea Surface Temperature) and daily rainfall temperature from TRMM satellite. Data examination is done using analysis of rainfall spatial pattern and sea surface temperature (SST) where is affected by El Nino and La Nina phenomenon. This research results distribution map of SST and rainfall for each season to find out the impacts of El Nino and La Nina around West Java. El Nino and La Nina in Java Sea are occurring every August to February. During El Nino, sea surface temperature is between 27°C - 28°C with average temperature on 27.71°C. Rainfall intensity is 1.0 mm/day – 2.0 mm/day and the average are 1.63 mm/day. During La Nina, sea surface temperature is between 29°C - 30°C with average temperature on 29.06°C. Rainfall intensity is 9.0 mm/day - 10 mm/day, and the average is 9.74 mm/day. The correlation between rainfall and SST is 0,413 which is expresses a fairly strong correlation between parameters. The conclusion is, during La Nina SST and rainfall increase. While during El Nino SST and rainfall decrease. Hopefully this research could be a guideline to plan disaster mitigation in West Java region that is related extreme climate change.

  14. Atmosphere-Truth Z-R Rainfall Estimates: A Fresh Approach to an Old Problem (United States)

    Henz, J. F.


    Common modeling practice for basin calibration uses rainfall fields developed by the statistical use of surface rain gauge observed data or the direct application of NEXRAD National Weather Service WSR-88D Doppler radar Storm Total Rainfall or 1-hr rainfall estimations. Each of these approaches has significant limitations. Rain gages often lack sufficient spatial coverage to measure true storm intensity or the distribution of rainfall in a basin. The NWS WSR-88D Doppler radar algorithms are constantly being improved but still fail to deliver consistent rainfall estimates. Significant problems are caused by an under-estimation of warm coalescence rains and an over-estimation of rainfall in both dry environments and storms with hail contamination. Finally, storm updraft areas are frequently counted as raining portions of the storm producing immediate errors. The statistical techniques often under-estimate rainfall when the heavy rain core of the storm misses the rain gauges or if high winds cause an under-catchment of rainfall. Gauge-adjusted rainfall estimates are also dependant on the core of the storm being observed by a gauge. Statistical approaches often under-estimate rainfall producing insufficient runoff to drive the observed flooding runoffs. The Atmosphere-Truth ZR (ATZR) technique uses an atmosphere-truthed algorithm to produce highly accurate estimates of surface rainfall from Doppler radar data. This approach relies on using a cloud physics approach to determine the atmosphere’s ability to produce 15-min to hourly rain rates. The atmsopheric rainfall is utilizes surface, boundary layer and cloud layer observations of temperature and moisture from conventional National Weather Service observations. The depth of the thunderstorm updraft region that exceeds 0C is used with the precipitable water index and updraft speeds to provide estimates of 15-min to hourly rainfall rates from radar reflectivity areas in the storm greather than 50 dBZ. Rainfall rates

  15. Simulation of rainfall interception using multilayer model in evergreen broadleaf forest, Cambodia (United States)

    Nobuhiro, T.; Shimizu, A.; Tanaka, K.; Kabeya, N.; Tamai, K.; Chann, S.; Keth, N.


    The proportion of forest area is relatively high in Cambodia compared with neighboring countries. Therefore forest is one of the important factors on the water cycle in this country. The rainfall interception by a tree canopy and evaporation after the rainfall event are one of the important factors for considering such a water cycle. To clarify those processes, a rainfall interception measurement plot (25 x 25 m) was constructed in the evergreen broadleaf forest area in Kampong Thom province, central part of Cambodia. We measured rainfall, through fall and stem flow in the interception plot, and then we analyzed the relationship between those components. Moreover, the simulation of rainfall interception was carried out using multilayer model. Model parameters such as canopy structure and leaf characteristics were estimated using observed interception components and meteorological elements during large rainfall event. Annual rainfall interception was reproduced using multilayer model with obtained parameters and observed meteorological elements. The simulation results were in agreement with the observed value. The rainfall interception rate in the interception plot was considered to be about 15 % against annual rainfall.

  16. High surface area electrode for high efficient microbial electrosynthesis (United States)

    Nie, Huarong; Cui, Mengmeng; Lu, Haiyun; Zhang, Tian; Russell, Thomas; Lovley, Derek


    Microbial electrosynthesis, a process in which microorganisms directly accept electrons from an electrode to convert carbon dioxide and water into multi carbon organic compounds, affords a novel route for the generation of valuable products from electricity or even wastewater. The surface area of the electrode is critical for high production. A biocompatible, highly conductive, three-dimensional cathode was fabricated from a carbon nanotube textile composite to support the microorganism to produce acetate from carbon dioxide. The high surface area and macroscale porous structure of the intertwined CNT coated textile ?bers provides easy microbe access. The production of acetate using this cathode is 5 fold larger than that using a planar graphite electrode with the same volume. Nickel-nanowire-modified carbon electrodes, fabricated by microwave welding, increased the surface area greatly, were able to absorb more bacteria and showed a 1.5 fold increase in performance

  17. Rainfall: Features and Variations over Saudi Arabia, A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hosny Hasanean


    Full Text Available The Saudi Arabia (SA climate varies greatly, depending on the geography and the season. According to K ppen and Geiger, the climates of SA is “desert climate”. The analysis of the seasonal rainfall detects that spring and winter seasons have the highestrainfall incidence, respectively. Through the summer,small quantities of precipitation are observed, while autumn received more precipitation more than summer season considering the total annual rainfall. In all seasons, the SW area receives rainfall, with a maximum in spring, whereas in the summer season, the NE and NW areas receive very little quantities of precipitation. The Rub Al-Khali (the SE region is almost totally dry. The maximum amount of annual rainfall does not always happen at the highest elevation. Therefore, the elevation is not the only factor in rainfall distribution.A great inter-annual change in the rainfall over the SA for the period (1978–2009 is observed. In addition, in the same period, a linear decreasing trend is found in the observed rainfall, whilst in the recent past (1994–2009 a statistically significant negative trend is observed. In the Southern part of the Arabian Peninsula (AP and along the coast of the Red Sea, it is interesting to note that rainfall increased, whilst it decreased over most areas of SA during the 2000–2009 decade, compared to 1980–1989.Statistical and numerical models are used to predict rainfall over Saudi Arabia (SA. The statistical models based on stochastic models of ARIMA and numerical models based on Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies of Hadley Centre (PRECIS. Climate and its qualitative character and quantified range of possible future changes are investigated. The annual total rainfall decreases in most regions of the SA and only increases in the south. The summertime precipitation will be the highest between other seasons over the southern, the southwestern provinces and Asir mountains, while the wintertime

  18. A rainfall-based warning model for shallow landslides (United States)

    Zeng, Yi-Chao; Wang, Ji-Shang; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Yin, Hsiao-Yuan; Lo, Wen-Chun


    According to the statistical data of past rainfall events, the climate has changed in recent decades. Rainfall patterns have presented a more concentrated, high-intensity and long-duration trend in Taiwan. The most representative event is Typhoon Morakot which induced a total of 67 enormous landslides by the extreme amount of rain during August 7 to 10 in 2009 and resulted in the heaviest casualties in southern Taiwan. In addition, the nature of vulnerability such as steep mountains and rushing rivers, fragile geology and loose surface soil results in more severe sediment-relative disasters, in which shallow landslides are widespread hazards in mountainous regions. This research aims to develop and evaluate a model for predicting shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in mountainous area. Considering the feasibility of large-scale application and practical operation, the statistical techniques is adopted to form the landslide model based on abundant historical rainfall data and landslide events. The 16 landslide inventory maps and 15 variation results by comparing satellite images taken before and after the rainfall event were interpreted and delineated since 2004 to 2011. Logit model is utilized for interpreting the relationship between rainfall characteristics and landslide events delineated from satellite. Based on the analysis results of logistic regression, the rainfall factors that are highly related to shallow landslide occurrence are selected which are 3 hours rainfall intensity I3 (mm/hr) and the effective cumulative precipitation Rt (mm) including accumulated rainfall at time t and antecedent rainfall. A landslide rainfall triggering index (LRTI) proposed for assessing the occurrence potential of shallow landslides is defined as the product of I3 and Rt. A form of probability of shallow landslide triggered threshold is proposed to offer a measure of the likelihood of landslide occurrence. Two major critical lines which represent the lower and upper

  19. Probability and volume of potential postwildfire debris flows in the 2012 High Park Burn Area near Fort Collins, Colorado (United States)

    Verdin, Kristine L.; Dupree, Jean A.; Elliott, John G.


    This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the 2012 High Park fire near Fort Collins in Larimer County, Colorado. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows along the burned area drainage network and to estimate the same for 44 selected drainage basins along State Highway 14 and the perimeter of the burned area. Input data for the models included topographic parameters, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall (25 millimeters); (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall (43 millimeters); and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall (51 millimeters). Estimated debris-flow probabilities along the drainage network and throughout the drainage basins of interest ranged from 1 to 84 percent in response to the 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall; from 2 to 95 percent in response to the 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall; and from 3 to 97 in response to the 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall. Basins and drainage networks with the highest probabilities tended to be those on the eastern edge of the burn area where soils have relatively high clay contents and gradients are steep. Estimated debris-flow volumes range from a low of 1,600 cubic meters to a high of greater than 100,000 cubic meters. Estimated debris-flow volumes increase with basin size and distance along the drainage network, but some smaller drainages were also predicted to produce substantial volumes of material. The predicted probabilities and some of the volumes predicted for the modeled storms indicate a potential for substantial debris-flow impacts on structures, roads, bridges, and culverts located both within and

  20. Origin of the water vapor responsible for the European extreme rainfalls of August 2002: 1. High-resolution simulations and tracking of air masses (United States)

    Gangoiti, G.; SáEz de CáMara, E.; Alonso, L.; Navazo, M.; Gómez, M. C.; Iza, J.; GarcíA, J. A.; Ilardia, J. L.; MilláN, M. M.


    This article investigates an extreme rainfall event occurred over wide areas of central Europe on August 11-13, 2002. By using a synergistic approach that includes regional modeling, air mass tracking, and observational data sets, the importance of moisture accumulation processes in the Western Mediterranean basin (WMB) is acknowledged as an important mechanism responsible for the magnitude of this event. The RAMS-HYPACT modeling system is used to track air masses from potential marine sources of evaporation. MODIS water vapor products, wind profilers and surface rain gauge measurements are used to substantiate our simulations. Results show that most of the precipitation occurring in central Europe during the initiation of the rainfall episode (August 11) came from vapor accumulated over 4 days (August 6-9) within the WMB: the vapor was transported, after the irruption of the Vb cyclone Ilse, through the Italian Peninsula and the Adriatic Sea, into the target area, causing the precipitation episode. On August 12 and 13 the marine sources of evaporation changed to include the north-Atlantic region. The north-African convergence region, the eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea are revealed to be sources more related to the intense rainfall experienced in eastern Europe. The subsidence-related processes through which pollutants and water vapor can accumulate for several days in the WMB are shown to be very relevant for this event. The quantification of the evaporative sources, responsible for the extreme rainfall events in central Europe, and the relative importance of marine and terrestrial sources within a chosen regional domain are discussed in the companion following article.

  1. Rainfall erosivity in New Zealand (United States)

    Klik, Andreas; Haas, Kathrin; Dvorackova, Anna; Fuller, Ian


    Rainfall and its kinetic energy expressed by the rainfall erosivity is the main driver of soil erosion processes by water. The Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity Factor (R) of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation is one oft he most widely used parameters describing rainfall erosivity. This factor includes the cumulative effects of the many moderate-sized storms as well as the effects oft he occasional severe ones: R quantifies the effect of raindrop impact and reflects the amopunt and rate of runoff associated with the rain. New Zealand is geologically young and not comparable with any other country in the world. Inordinately high rainfall and strong prevailing winds are New Zealand's dominant climatic features. Annual rainfall up to 15000 mm, steep slopes, small catchments and earthquakes are the perfect basis for a high rate of natural and accelerated erosion. Due to the multifacted landscape of New Zealand its location as island between the Pacific and the Tasmanian Sea there is a high gradient in precipitation between North and South Island as well as between West and East Coast. The objective of this study was to determine the R-factor for the different climatic regions in New Zealand, in order to create a rainfall erosivity map. We used rainfall data (breakpoint data in 10-min intervals) from 34 gauging stations for the calcuation of the rainfall erosivity. 15 stations were located on the North Island and 19 stations on the South Island. From these stations, a total of 397 station years with 12710 rainstorms were analyzed. The kinetic energy for each rainfall event was calculated based on the equation by Brown and Foster (1987), using the breakpoint precipitation data for each storm. On average, a mean annual precipitation of 1357 mm was obtained from the 15 observed stations on the North Island. Rainfall distribution throughout the year is relatively even with 22-24% of annual rainfall occurring in spring , fall and winter and 31% in summer. On the South Island

  2. Three Years of Country-Wide Rainfall Maps from Cellular Communication Networks (United States)

    Overeem, Aart; Rios Gaona, Manuel Felipe; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko


    Accurate rainfall observations with high spatial and temporal resolutions are needed for hydrological applications, agriculture, meteorology, and climate monitoring. However, the majority of the land surface of the earth lacks accurate rainfall information and the number of rain gauges is even severely declining in Europe, South-America, and Africa. This calls for alternative sources of rainfall information. Various studies have shown that microwave links from operational cellular communication networks may be used for rainfall monitoring. Such networks cover 20% of the land surface of the earth and have a high density, especially in urban areas. The basic principle of rainfall estimation using microwave links is as follows. Rainfall attenuates the electromagnetic signals transmitted from one telephone tower to another. By measuring the received power at one end of a microwave link as a function of time, the path-integrated attenuation due to rainfall can be calculated, which can be converted to average rainfall intensities over the length of a link. This is particularly interesting for those countries where few surface rainfall observations are available. A data set from a commercial microwave link network over the Netherlands is analyzed. The data set runs from January 2011 - January 2014 and consists of roughly 2,000 links covering the land surface of the Netherlands (35,500 square kilometers). From this 3-year data set country-wide rainfall maps are retrieved, which are compared to a gauge-adjusted radar data set. The ability of cellular communication networks to estimate rainfall is studied for different temporal and spatial scales (including the catchment scale). To summarize, the results further confirm the potential of these networks for rainfall monitoring for hydrological applications.

  3. The Potential of Lr19 and Bdv2 Translocations to Improve Yield and Disease Resistance in the High Rainfall Wheat Zones of Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garry Rosewarne


    Full Text Available Chromosomal translocations in wheat derived from alien species are a valuable source of genetic diversity that have provided increases in resistance to various diseases and improved tolerance to abiotic stresses in wheat. These alien genomic segments can also affect multiple traits, with a concomitant ability to alter yield potential in either a positive or negative fashion. The aim of this work was to characterize the effects on yield of two types of translocations, namely T4-derived translocations from Thinopyrum ponticum, carrying the leaf rust resistance gene Lr19, and the TC14 translocation from Th. intermedium, carrying the barley yellow dwarf virus resistance gene Bdv2, in Australian adapted genetic backgrounds and under Australian conditions. A large range of germplasm was developed by crossing donor sources of the translocations into 24 Australian adapted varieties producing 340 genotypes. Yield trials were conducted in 14 environments to identify effects on yield and yield components. The T4 translocations had a positive effect on yield in one high yielding environment, but negatively affected yield in low-yielding environments. The TC14 translocation was generally benign, however, it was associated with a negative impact on yield and reduced height in two genetic backgrounds. The translocation was also associated with a delayed maturity in several backgrounds. The T4 translocations results were consistent with previously published data, whilst this is the first time that such an investigation has been undertaken on the TC14 translocation. Our data suggests a limited role for each of these translocations in Australia. The T4 translocations may be useful in high yielding environments, such as under irrigation in NSW and in the more productive high rainfall regions of south-eastern Australia. Traits associated with the TC14 translocation, such as BYDV resistance and delayed maturity, would make this translocation useful in BYDV

  4. Critical rainfall conditions for the initiation of torrential flows. Results from the Rebaixader catchment (Central Pyrenees) (United States)

    Abancó, Clàudia; Hürlimann, Marcel; Moya, José; Berenguer, Marc


    Torrential flows like debris flows or debris floods are fast movements formed by a mix of water and different amounts of unsorted solid material. They generally occur in steep torrents and pose high risk in mountainous areas. Rainfall is their most common triggering factor and the analysis of the critical rainfall conditions is a fundamental research task. Due to their wide use in warning systems, rainfall thresholds for the triggering of torrential flows are an important outcome of such analysis and are empirically derived using data from past events. In 2009, a monitoring system was installed in the Rebaixader catchment, Central Pyrenees (Spain). Since then, rainfall data of 25 torrential flows (;TRIG rainfalls;) were recorded, with a 5-min sampling frequency. Other 142 rainfalls that did not trigger torrential flows (;NonTRIG rainfalls;) were also collected and analyzed. The goal of this work was threefold: (i) characterize rainfall episodes in the Rebaixader catchment and compare rainfall data that triggered torrential flows and others that did not; (ii) define and test Intensity-Duration (ID) thresholds using rainfall data measured inside the catchment by with different techniques; (iii) analyze how the criterion used for defining the rainfall duration and the spatial variability of rainfall influences the value obtained for the thresholds. The statistical analysis of the rainfall characteristics showed that the parameters that discriminate better the TRIG and NonTRIG rainfalls are the rainfall intensities, the mean rainfall and the total rainfall amount. The antecedent rainfall was not significantly different between TRIG and NonTRIG rainfalls, as it can be expected when the source material is very pervious (a sandy glacial soil in the study site). Thresholds were derived from data collected at one rain gauge located inside the catchment. Two different methods were applied to calculate the duration and intensity of rainfall: (i) using total duration, Dtot

  5. PREGRIDBAL 1.0: towards a high-resolution rainfall atlas for the Balearic Islands (1950-2009) (United States)

    López Mayol, Toni; Homar, Víctor; Ramis, Climent; Guijarro, José Antonio


    This work presents a catalog of daily precipitation fields in the Balearic Islands created with data from AEMET (State Meteorological Agency) assistant observations, including records from 1912. The original digital daily data file has been interpolated onto a regular 100 m-resolution grid (namely PREGRIDBAL), defined with the aim of becoming a valid standard for future methodological improvements and catalog upgrades. Daily precipitation amounts on each grid point are calculated using an analysis method based on ordinary kriging, using the daily anomaly with respect to the annual mean for all available observations each day. Due to quality concerns, the time span for products derived from the catalog is limited to the 1950-2009 period, when the number of operating stations reached 200. Therefore, from the time series of daily maps, monthly-, annual-, quinquennial-, and decadal-accumulations are produced. Similarly, the catalog allowed for quantification of climate trends in rainfall amounts in the Balearic Islands, with the significant advantage of minimizing the biases originated from heterogeneities in the spatial distribution of stations across the archipelago. Results show a general decrease in precipitation during the 1950-2009 period. From 1950 to 1979, the average annual precipitation across the islands was 624.3 mm, while from 1980 to 2009 it diminished to 555.36 mm. Changes in precipitation patterns, which vary among the different areas, are also detected. The most significant reductions are found in the northern half of the archipelago and especially in Mallorca, where the Tramuntana mountain range stands out. All seasonal trends show a decrease, with values ranging between 1 and 3 mm decade-1, with the exception of autumn, which reaches a positive trend up to 7 mm decade-1. October shows the most dramatic decrease (-10. 34 mm decade-1) and, conversely, September and November show an increase in precipitation (3.28 and 1.82 mm decade-1, respectively

  6. Freshwater mollusc diversity in the Kruger National Park: a comparison between a period of prolonged drought and a period of exceptionally high rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.N. de Kock


    Full Text Available Most of the previous records of the freshwater molluscs from the Kruger National Park date back to 1966 and earlier. On account of several droughts between 1966 and 1995, a survey was done in 1995 to evaluate the effect of these droughts on the mollusc population. As a result of extensive rainfall between 1995 and 2000 another survey was conducted to establish the effect of a period of exceptionally high rainfall on the species’ diversity of the mollusc population. With the exception of three habitats, an increase in mollusc diversity was recorded for all the other habitats previously surveyed. One of the invader freshwater snail species, Aplexa marmorata, collected in only one habitat in 1995, was found in seven habitats located mainly in the south during the 2001 survey. Another interesting finding was that juvenile specimens of Lanistes ovum, of which large specimens were present prior to 1966 but none found in 1995, were present in the Sirheni Dam in 2001. From this study the positive effect of the high rainfall on the species’ diversity is highly evident.

  7. Local-level ground valuation of rainfall estimates by GPM IMERG Final run using the WegenerNet high-resolution precipitation data (United States)

    Oh, Sungmin; Foelsche, Ulrich; Fuchsberger, Jürgen; Kirchengast, Gottfried


    We first performed a study on evaluation of Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) Early, Late, and Final rainfall estimates. Afterwards we proceeded to use the WegenerNet gridded precipitation data for detailed analysis of the performance of IMERG Final run data. In this current work, IMERG Final run estimates during the period from April to October for 3 years (2014-2016) are assessed with focus put on various parameters affecting the satellite rainfall retrieval techniques, for example, IR/PMW sensor data involved and seasonal rainfall variations or spatial variability. The WegenerNet gridded data (on a 200 m x 200 m grid, updated every 5-min) are generated from 1km-scale gauge measurements of its 151 weather stations through an Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation method. Given that the network is located within an area of about 15 km × 20 km (centered at 46.93 ˚ N/15.90 ˚ E in south-eastern Austria), two 0.1˚ x 0.1˚ IMERG grid cells can be selected for a direct pixel-to-pixel validation of IMERG data. This presentation will summarize the first study evaluating the three different IMERG runs with updated IMERG data (v4) and then show the results from the current study focusing on the IMERG Final run data.

  8. Zonation of High Disaster Potential Communities for Remote Mountainous Areas in Southern Taiwan (United States)

    Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chang, Chwen-Ming; Chen, Jing-Wen; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Lu, Yi-Ching; Tsai, Hui-Wen


    About three-quarters of Taiwan are covered by hillside areas. Most of the hillside regions in Taiwan are sedimentary and metamorphic rocks which are fragile and highly weathered. In recent years, human development coupled with the global impact of extreme weather, typhoons and heavy rains have caused the landslide disasters and leaded to human causalities and properties loss. The landslides also endanger the major public works and almost make the overall industrial economic development and transport path overshadowed by disasters. Therefore, this research assesses the exploration of landslide potential analysis and zonation of high disaster potential communities for remote mountainous areas in southern Taiwan. In this study, the time series of disaster records and land change of remote mountainous areas in southern Taiwan are collected using techniques of interpretation from satellite images corresponding to multi-year and multi-rainfall events. To quantify the slope hazards, we adopt statistical analysis model to analyze massive data of slope disasters and explore the variance, difference and trend of influence factors of hillside disaster; establish the disaster potential analysis model under the climate change and construct the threshold of disaster. Through analysis results of disaster potential assessment, the settlement distribution with high-risk hazard potential of study area is drawn with geographic information system. Results of image classification show that the values of coefficient of agreement for different time periods are at high level. Compared with the historical disaster records of research areas, the accuracy of predicted landslide potential is in reasonable confidence level. The spatial distribution of landslide depends on the interaction of rainfall patterns, slope and elevation of the research area. The results also show that the number and scale of secondary landslide sites are much larger than those of new landslide sites after rainfall

  9. Sustainability Analysis of Existing Agriculture on High Risk Erosion Area (Case Studies in Lembang, West Bandung District and in Dongko, Trenggalek District)




    There are three main constraints for the upland agriculture development, namely (1) steep slopes that limit the suitable farm land, (2) soil erosion rate tends to be higher than the rate of soil losses and (3) high average annual rainfall. This research focused on sustainability analysis at high risk erosion area in Lembang sub district and Dongko sub district. The aim of this research was to analyze index and sustainability status of the border area, existing farming on high risk erosion. Mu...

  10. Constraining relationships between rainfall and landsliding with satellite derived rainfall measurements and landslide inventories. (United States)

    Marc, Odin; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Stumpf, Andre; Gosset, Marielle


    In mountainous and hilly regions, landslides are an important source of damage and fatalities. Landsliding correlates with extreme rainfall events and may increase with climate change. Still, how precipitation drives landsliding at regional scales is poorly understood quantitatively in part because constraining simultaneously landsliding and rainfall across large areas is challenging. By combining optical images acquired from satellite observation platforms and rainfall measurements from satellite constellations we are building a database of landslide events caused by with single storm events. We present results from storm-induced landslides from Brazil, Taiwan, Micronesia, Central America, Europe and the USA. We present scaling laws between rainfall metrics derived by satellites (total rainfall, mean intensity, antecedent rainfall, ...) and statistical descriptors of landslide events (total area and volume, size distribution, mean runout, ...). Total rainfall seems to be the most important parameter driving non-linearly the increase in total landslide number, and area and volume. The maximum size of bedrock landslides correlates with the total number of landslides, and thus with total rainfall, within the limits of available topographic relief. In contrast, the power-law scaling exponent of the size distribution, controlling the relative abundance of small and large landslides, appears rather independent of the rainfall metrics (intensity, duration and total rainfall). These scaling laws seem to explain both the intra-storm pattern of landsliding, at the scale of satellite rainfall measurements ( 25kmx25km), and the different impacts observed for various storms. Where possible, we evaluate the limits of standard rainfall products (TRMM, GPM, GSMaP) by comparing them to in-situ data. Then we discuss how slope distribution and other geomorphic factors (lithology, soil presence,...) modulate these scaling laws. Such scaling laws at the basin scale and based only on a

  11. Changes in rainfall thresholds for debris flow initiation and run-out on a local and regional scale in the Wenchuan earthquake area, SW China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asch, Th.W.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304839558; Quan Luna, B.; Tang, C.; van Westen, A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/068876572; Alkema, D.; Fan, X.


    For the development of early warning systems for the initiation and run-out distances of debris flows, to avoid or mitigate intolerable risks, it is necessary to assess rainfall thresholds. However one must be aware that these thresholds can change. These changes can be ascribed to environmental and

  12. Rainfall spatiotemporal variability relation to wetlands hydroperiods (United States)

    Serrano-Hidalgo, Carmen; Guardiola-Albert, Carolina; Fernandez-Naranjo, Nuria


    Doñana natural space (Southwestern Spain) is one of the largest protected wetlands in Europe. The wide marshes present in this natural space have such ecological value that this wetland has been declared a Ramsar reserve in 1982. Apart from the extensive marsh, there are also small lagoons and seasonally flooded areas which are likewise essential to maintain a wide variety of valuable habitats. Hydroperiod, the length of time each point remains flooded along an annual cycle, is a critical ecological parameter that shapes aquatic plants and animals distribution and determines available habitat for many of the living organisms in the marshes. Recently, there have been published two different works estimating the hydroperiod of Doñana lagoons with Landsat Time Series images (Cifuentes et al., 2015; Díaz-Delgado et al., 2016). In both works the flooding cycle hydroperiod in Doñana marshes reveals a flooding regime mainly driven by rainfall, evapotranspiration, topography and local hydrological management actions. The correlation found between rainfall and hydroperiod is studied differently in both works. While in one the rainfall is taken from one raingauge (Cifuentes et al., 2015), the one performed by Díaz-Delgado (2016) uses annual rainfall maps interpolated with the inverse of the distance method. The rainfall spatiotemporal variability in this area can be highly significant; however the amount of this importance has not been quantified at the moment. In the present work the geostatistical tool known as spatiotemporal variogram is used to study the rainfall spatiotemporal variability. The spacetime package implemented in R (Pebesma, 2012) facilities its computation from a high rainfall data base of more than 100 raingauges from 1950 to 2016. With the aid of these variograms the rainfall spatiotemporal variability is quantified. The principal aim of the present work is the study of the relation between the rainfall spatiotemporal variability and the

  13. Rainfall Erosivity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale


    Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the Rfactor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national...... and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based....... Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months...

  14. The effects of simulated rainfall on immature population dynamics of Aedes albopictus and female oviposition (United States)

    Dieng, Hamady; Rahman, G. M. Saifur; Abu Hassan, A.; Che Salmah, M. R.; Satho, Tomomitsu; Miake, Fumio; Boots, Michael; Sazaly, Abubakar


    Larvae of Aedes albopictus Skuse typically inhabit natural and artificial containers. Since these larval habitats are replenished by rainfall, Ae. albopictus may experience increased loss of immature stages in areas with high levels of rainfall. In this study, we investigated the effects of rainfall and container water level on population density, and oviposition activity of Ae. albopictus. In field and laboratory experiments, we found that rainfall resulted in the flushing of breeding habitats. Excess rain negatively impacted larval and pupal retention, especially in small habitats. When filled with water to overflowing, container habitats were significantly repellent to ovipositing females. Taken together, these data suggest that rainfall triggers population loss of Ae. albopictus and related species through a direct detrimental effect (flushing out) and an indirect effect (ovipositional repellency).

  15. On the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM): Bringing NASA's Earth System Science Program to the Classroom (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall


    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission is the first mission dedicated to measuring tropical and subtropical rainfall using a variety of remote sensing instrumentation, including the first spaceborne rain-measuring radar. Since the energy released when tropical rainfall occurs is a primary "fuel" supply for the weather and climate "engine"; improvements in computer models which predict future weather and climate states may depend on better measurements of global tropical rainfall and its energy. In support of the STANYS conference theme of Education and Space, this presentation focuses on one aspect of NASA's Earth Systems Science Program. We seek to present an overview of the TRMM mission. This overview will discuss the scientific motivation for TRMM, the TRMM instrument package, and recent images from tropical rainfall systems and hurricanes. The presentation also targets educational components of the TRMM mission in the areas of weather, mathematics, technology, and geography that can be used by secondary school/high school educators in the classroom.

  16. Characteristics of rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. K. W. Cheung


    Full Text Available Due to the Central Mountain Range with an elevation up to about 4 km, the amount and distribution of rainfall in Taiwan associated with typhoons or tropical cyclones (TCs depends not only on the distribution of convection within the TCs (internal structure and influences from monsoon-scale environmental flow, but also on the orographic effect. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall associated with 62 TC cases that affected Taiwan by using observations from the 371 automatic rain stations available in the period 1989–2002. It is found from the climatology maps that highly different rainfall distributions occurred for TCs that approached the Taiwan area from different directions. By performing objective clustering analysis of the rainfall time series of all the rain gauges, several characteristic temporal rainfall profiles are obtained. The geographic distribution of rain gauges that possess a particular temporal profile is also consistent with the possible TC track types that bring maximum rain to the Taiwan area at different times.

    Based on data in the 1989–2002 period, the development of a TC rainfall climatology-persistence (CLIPER model is described. CLIPER is an optimized combination of climatology and persistence with different relative weighting for different forecast periods. Independent cases (other than the model development database during 2003–2004 are used to validate the model. Objective measures like equitable threat score and bias score show that CLIPER's skill is acceptable for practical applications for 24-h rain threshold below 100 mm. However, the underestimation bias for more heavy rainfall is serious and CLIPER seems to have better performance for the northwestern Taiwan than for the other locations. Future directions for improvement of the CLIPER model are discussed.

  17. Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe. (United States)

    Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Spinoni, Jonathan; Meusburger, Katrin; Michaelides, Silas; Beguería, Santiago; Klik, Andreas; Petan, Sašo; Janeček, Miloslav; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Diodato, Nazzareno; Kostalova, Julia; Rousseva, Svetla; Banasik, Kazimierz; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos


    Rainfall erosivity as a dynamic factor of soil loss by water erosion is modelled intra-annually for the first time at European scale. The development of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and its 2015 update with the extension to monthly component allowed to develop monthly and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part of Britain and Ireland) in May and the highest values are registered during summer months. Starting from September, R-factor has a decreasing trend. The mean rainfall erosivity in summer is almost 4 times higher (315MJmmha-1h-1) compared to winter (87MJmmha-1h-1). The Cubist model has been selected among various statistical models to perform the spatial interpolation due to its excellent performance, ability to model non-linearity and interpretability. The monthly prediction is an order more difficult than the annual one as it is limited by the number of covariates and, for consistency, the sum of all months has to be close to annual erosivity. The performance of the Cubist models proved to be generally high, resulting in R2 values between 0.40 and 0.64 in cross-validation. The obtained months show an increasing trend of erosivity occurring from winter to summer starting from western to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events. Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in

  18. An operative X-band mini-radar network to monitor rainfall events with high time and space resolution


    S. Bertoldo; C. Lucianaz; Allegretti, M.; Rorato, O.; A. Prato; Perona, G.


    The increasing frequency of extreme and very localized precipitation events have been causing landslides, floods and casualties, especially in Sicily, due to its complex orography, and to the presence of densely inhabited areas just at the mouth of small basins. In order to monitor such phenomena with the needed high resolution in time and space, an experimental network of X-band mini-radars, exclusively devoted to monitor rain, has been installed in some parts of Sicily since November 2010. ...

  19. Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010 (United States)

    Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony


    This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south

  20. Rainfall-Runoff Parameters Uncertainity (United States)

    Heidari, A.; Saghafian, B.; Maknoon, R.


    Karkheh river basin, located in southwest of Iran, drains an area of over 40000 km2 and is considered a flood active basin. A flood forecasting system is under development for the basin, which consists of a rainfall-runoff model, a river routing model, a reservior simulation model, and a real time data gathering and processing module. SCS, Clark synthetic unit hydrograph, and Modclark methods are the main subbasin rainfall-runoff transformation options included in the rainfall-runoff model. Infiltration schemes, such as exponentioal and SCS-CN methods, account for infiltration losses. Simulation of snow melt is based on degree day approach. River flood routing is performed by FLDWAV model based on one-dimensional full dynamic equation. Calibration and validation of the rainfall-runoff model on Karkheh subbasins are ongoing while the river routing model awaits cross section surveys.Real time hydrometeological data are collected by a telemetry network. The telemetry network is equipped with automatic sensors and INMARSAT-C comunication system. A geographic information system (GIS) stores and manages the spatial data while a database holds the hydroclimatological historical and updated time series. Rainfall runoff parameters uncertainty is analyzed by Monte Carlo and GLUE approaches.

  1. High resolution, high bandwidth global shutter CMOS area scan sensors (United States)

    Faramarzpour, Naser; Sonder, Matthias; Li, Binqiao


    Global shuttering, sometimes also known as electronic shuttering, enables the use of CMOS sensors in a vast range of applications. Teledyne DALSA Global shutter sensors are able to integrate light synchronously across millions of pixels with microsecond accuracy. Teledyne DALSA offers 5 transistor global shutter pixels in variety of resolutions, pitches and noise and full-well combinations. One of the recent generations of these pixels is implemented in 12 mega pixel area scan device at 6 um pitch and that images up to 70 frames per second with 58 dB dynamic range. These square pixels include microlens and optional color filters. These sensors also offer exposure control, anti-blooming and high dynamic range operation by introduction of a drain and a PPD reset gate to the pixel. The state of the art sense node design of Teledyne DALSA's 5T pixel offers exceptional shutter rejection ratio. The architecture is consistent with the requirements to use stitching to achieve very large area scan devices. Parallel or serial digital output is provided on these sensors using on-chip, column-wise analog to digital converters. Flexible ADC bit depth combined with windowing (adjustable region of interest, ROI) allows these sensors to run with variety of resolution/bandwidth combinations. The low power, state of the art LVDS I/O technology allows for overall power consumptions of less than 2W at full performance conditions.

  2. An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Q. Hung


    Full Text Available This paper presents a new approach using an Artificial Neural Network technique to improve rainfall forecast performance. A real world case study was set up in Bangkok; 4 years of hourly data from 75 rain gauge stations in the area were used to develop the ANN model. The developed ANN model is being applied for real time rainfall forecasting and flood management in Bangkok, Thailand. Aimed at providing forecasts in a near real time schedule, different network types were tested with different kinds of input information. Preliminary tests showed that a generalized feedforward ANN model using hyperbolic tangent transfer function achieved the best generalization of rainfall. Especially, the use of a combination of meteorological parameters (relative humidity, air pressure, wet bulb temperature and cloudiness, the rainfall at the point of forecasting and rainfall at the surrounding stations, as an input data, advanced ANN model to apply with continuous data containing rainy and non-rainy period, allowed model to issue forecast at any moment. Additionally, forecasts by ANN model were compared to the convenient approach namely simple persistent method. Results show that ANN forecasts have superiority over the ones obtained by the persistent model. Rainfall forecasts for Bangkok from 1 to 3 h ahead were highly satisfactory. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most important input parameter besides rainfall itself is the wet bulb temperature in forecasting rainfall.

  3. Spatiotemporal monthly rainfall forecasts for south-eastern and eastern Australia using climatic indices (United States)

    Montazerolghaem, Maryam; Vervoort, Willem; Minasny, Budiman; McBratney, Alex


    Knowledge about future rainfall is important for agriculture management and planning in arid and semi-arid regions. Australia has complex variations in rainfall patterns in time and space, arising from the combination of the geographic structure and the dual effects of Indian and Pacific Ocean. This study aims to develop a forecasting model of spatiotemporal monthly rainfall totals using lagged climate indices and historical rainfall data from 1950-2011 for south-eastern and eastern Australia. Data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) from 136 high-quality weather stations. To reduce spatial complexity, climate regionalization was used to divide the stations in homogenous sub-regions based on similarity of rainfall patterns and intensity using principal component analysis (PCA) and K-means clustering. Subsequently, a fuzzy ranking algorithm (FRA) was applied to the lagged climatic predictors and monthly rainfall in each sub-region to identify the best predictors. Selected predictors by FRA were found to vary by sub-region. After these two stages of pre-processing, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed and optimized separately for each sub-region and the entire area. The results indicate that climate regionalization can improve a monthly spatiotemporal rainfall forecast model. The location and number of sub-regions were important for ranking predictors and modeling. This further suggests that the impact of climate variables on Australian rainfall is more variable in both time and space than indicated thus far.

  4. Nonseparating High-Area-Ratio Supersonic Nozzles (United States)

    Wagner, W. R.; Kassner, R. R.


    Procedure determines supersonic-nozzle contours that allow higher nozzle-exit wall pressures, reducing chamber pressure without causing wall-flow separation as encountered in optimum large-area-ratio nozzle designs. Procedure applies to chemical-laser nozzles, jet-engine and gas turbines, wind tunnels and rocket nozzles.

  5. Spatial-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Rainfall in Northeastern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umar M. Bibi


    Full Text Available In Northeastern Nigeria seasonal rainfall is critical for the availability of water for domestic use through surface and sub-surface recharge and agricultural production, which is mostly rain fed. Variability in rainfall over the last 60 years is the main cause for crop failure and water scarcity in the region, particularly, due to late onset of rainfall, short dry spells and multi-annual droughts. In this study, we analyze 27 years (1980–2006 of gridded daily rainfall data obtained from a merged dataset by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction and Climate Research Unit reanalysis data (NCEP-CRU for spatial-temporal variability of monthly amounts and frequency in rainfall and rainfall trends. Temporal variability was assessed using the percentage coefficient of variation and temporal trends in rainfall were assessed using maps of linear regression slopes for the months of May through October. These six months cover the period of the onset and cessation of the wet season throughout the region. Monthly rainfall amount and frequency were then predicted over a 24-month period using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA Model. The predictions were evaluated using NCEP-CRU data for the same period. Kolmogorov Smirnov test results suggest that despite there are some months during the wet season (May–October when there is no significant agreement (p < 0.05 between the monthly distribution of the values of the model and the corresponding 24-month NCEP-CRU data, the model did better than simply replicating the long term mean of the data used for the prediction. Overall, the model does well in areas and months with lower temporal rainfall variability. Maps of the coefficient of variation and regression slopes are presented to indicate areas of high rainfall variability and water deficit over the period under study. The implications of these results for future policies on Agriculture and Water Management in the region are

  6. Predictability of the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics variables over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Phakula, S


    Full Text Available for the homogeneous rainfall regions. Keywords: Retro-active validation, Forecast skill, Area-averaged ROC scores, Reliability diagrams. Introduction Southern Africa is a region of significant rainfall variability on a range of temporal and spacial scales... attributes of the downscaled forecasts are to be tested, namely, discrimination and reliability. For the former relative operating characteristics (ROC) is used and for the latter the attributes or reliability diagram is used. A high ROC score (>0...

  7. Spatiotemporal monthly rainfall forecasting for south-eastern and eastern Australia using climatic indices (United States)

    Montazerolghaem, Maryam; Vervoort, Willem; Minasny, Budiman; McBratney, Alex


    Knowledge about future rainfall would significantly benefit land, water resources and agriculture management, as this assists with planning and management decisions. Forecasting spatiotemporal monthly rainfall is difficult, especially in Australia where there is a complex interaction between topography and the effect of Indian and Pacific Ocean. This study describes a method for spatiotemporal monthly rainfall forecasting in south-eastern and eastern part of Australia using climatic and non-climatic variables. Rainfall data were obtained from Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) from 136 high quality weather stations from the south-eastern and eastern part of Australia with monthly rainfall records from 1879 to 2012. To reduce spatial complexity of the area and improve model accuracy, spatial classification (regionalization) was considered as first step. Significant predictors for each sub-region among lagged climatic input variables were selected using Fuzzy Ranking Algorithm (FRA). Climate classification: 1) discovered homogenous sub-regions with a similar rainfall patterns and investigated spatiotemporal rainfall variations in the area, 2) allowed selection of significant predictors with a fine resolution for each area, 3) improved the prediction model and increased model accuracy. PCA was used to reduce the dimensions of the dataset and to remove the rainfall time series correlation. K-means clustering was used on the loadings of PCs describing 93% of long-term monthly rainfall variations. The analysis was repeated for different numbers of sub-regions (3 - 8) to identify the best number of clusters to improve the forecast model performance. Subsequently, a Fuzzy Ranking Algorithm (FRA) was applied to the lagged climatic predictors and monthly rainfall in each sub-region to identify the best predictors. After these two stages of pre-processing, a Neural Network model was developed and optimized for each of the sub-regions as well as for the entire area. It is concluded

  8. Rainfall simulation experiments in the southwestern USA using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator


    V. Polyakov; J. Stone; C. Holifield Collins; M. A. Nearing; G. Paige; J. Buono; R.-L. Gomez-Pond


    This dataset contains hydrological, erosion, vegetation, ground cover, and other supplementary information from 272 rainfall simulation experiments conducted on 23 semiarid rangeland locations in Arizona and Nevada between 2002 and 2013. On 30 % of the plots, simulations were conducted up to five times during the decade of study. The rainfall was generated using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator on 2 m by 6 m plots. Simulation sites included brush and grassland areas with ...

  9. Assessment of Rainfall-induced Landslide Potential and Spatial Distribution (United States)

    Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Jing-Wen; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Hsieh, Shun-Chieh; Chue, Yung-Sheng


    Recently, due to the global climate change, most of the time the rainfall in Taiwan is of short duration but with high intensity. Due to Taiwan's steep terrain, rainfall-induced landslides often occur and lead to human causalities and properties loss. Taiwan's government has invested huge reconstruction funds to the affected areas. However, after rehabilitation they still face the risk of secondary sediment disasters. Therefore, this study assesses rainfall-induced (secondary) landslide potential and spatial distribution in watershed of Southern Taiwan under extreme climate change. The study areas in this research are Baolai and Jianshan villages in the watershed of the Laonongxi River Basin in the Southern Taiwan. This study focused on the 3 years after Typhoon Morakot (2009 to 2011). During this period, the study area experienced six heavy rainfall events including five typhoons and one heavy rainfall. The genetic adaptive neural network, texture analysis and GIS were implemented in the analysis techniques for the interpretation of satellite images and to obtain surface information and hazard log data and to analyze land use change. A multivariate hazards evaluation method was applied to quantitatively analyze the weights of various natural environmental and slope development hazard factors. Furthermore, this study established a slope landslide potential assessment model and depicted a slope landslide potential diagram by using the GIS platform. The interaction between (secondary) landslide mechanism, scale, and location was analyzed using association analysis of landslide historical data and regional environmental characteristics. The results of image classification before and after six heavy rainfall events show that the values of coefficient of agreement are at medium-high level. By multivariate hazards evaluation method, geology and the effective accumulative rainfall (EAR) are the most important factors. Slope, distance from fault, aspect, land disturbance

  10. Mining highly stressed areas, part 1.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Johnson, R


    Full Text Available The aim of this long-term project has been to focus on the extreme high-stress end of the mining spectrum. Such high stress conditions will prevail in certain ultra-deep mining operation of the near future, and are already being experienced...

  11. Rainfall Variability, Drought Characterization, and Efficacy of Rainfall Data Reconstruction: Case of Eastern Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Oscar Kisaka


    Full Text Available This study examined the extent of seasonal rainfall variability, drought occurrence, and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in eastern Kenya. Analyses of rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance, and probability analyses. Spline, Kriging, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and digital elevation model using ArcGIS. Validation of these interpolation methods was evaluated by comparing the modelled/generated rainfall values and the observed daily rainfall data using root mean square errors and mean absolute errors statistics. Results showed 90% chance of below cropping threshold rainfall (500 mm exceeding 258.1 mm during short rains in Embu for one year return period. Rainfall variability was found to be high in seasonal amounts (CV = 0.56, 0.47, and 0.59 and in number of rainy days (CV = 0.88, 0.49, and 0.53 in Machang’a, Kiritiri, and Kindaruma, respectively. Monthly rainfall variability was found to be equally high during April and November (CV = 0.48, 0.49, and 0.76 with high probabilities (0.67 of droughts exceeding 15 days in Machang’a and Kindaruma. Dry-spell probabilities within growing months were high, (91%, 93%, 81%, and 60% in Kiambere, Kindaruma, Machang’a, and Embu, respectively. Kriging interpolation method emerged as the most appropriate geostatistical interpolation technique suitable for spatial rainfall maps generation for the study region.

  12. Rainfall characteristics and thresholds for periglacial debris flows in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Mingfeng Deng


    Feb 14, 2018 ... daily rainfall days among the different meteoro- logical stations corresponded well. In particular, rainfall days were more abundant in the down- stream area. The maximum daily rainfall (MDR) from 1961 to. 2015 at the Bomi meteorological station fluctuated wildly. Most of the MDR data were near the mean.

  13. Application of vector autoregressive model for rainfall and groundwater level analysis (United States)

    Keng, Chai Yoke; Shan, Fam Pei; Shimizu, Kunio; Imoto, Tomoaki; Lateh, Habibah; Peng, Koay Swee


    Groundwater is a crucial water supply for industrial, agricultural and residential use, hence it is important to understand groundwater system. Groundwater is a dynamic natural resource and can be recharged. The amount of recharge depends on the rate and duration of rainfall, as rainfall comprises an important component of the water cycle and is the prime source of groundwater recharge. This study applies Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model in the analysis of rainfall and groundwater level. The study area that is focused in the study is along the East-West Highway, Gerik-Jeli, Malaysia. The VAR model with optimum lag length 8, VAR(8) is selected to model the rainfall and groundwater level in the study area. Result of Granger causality test shows significant influence of rainfall to groundwater level. Impulse Response Function reveals that changes in rainfall significantly affect changes in groundwater level after some time lags. Moreover, Variance Decomposition reported that rainfall contributed to the forecast of the groundwater level. The VAR(8) model is validated by comparing the actual value with the in-sample forecasted value and the result is satisfied with all forecasted groundwater level values lies inside the confidence interval which indicate that the model is reliable. Furthermore, the closeness of both actual and forecasted groundwater level time series plots implies the high degree of accurateness of the estimated model.

  14. Effects of Rainfall Intensity and Duration on the First Flush from Parking Lots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth C. Schiff


    Full Text Available Urban stormwater with large impervious (paved areas often produces runoff with a variety of contaminants. Although southern California is among the most urbanized coastal areas in the United States, the effect of rainfall variations on washoff efficiency of contaminants from pervious and impervious surfaces is largely unknown. The goal of this study was to investigate the effect of varying rainfall intensities and duration on runoff composition from highly impervious parking lots. In order to control the tremendous natural variability in precipitation of the arid climate in southern California, rainfall simulators were used to generate and quantify pollutant washoff at changing intensities and durations. Washoff of suspended solids, total and dissolved trace metals, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons was strongly inversely correlated with rainfall duration. Rainfall intensity only affected washoff at the smallest measured duration; higher intensities produced decreased concentrations. The effect of rainfall duration was a reflection of the first flush observed in pollutographs for every duration and intensity sampled. Peak concentrations, up to an order of magnitude higher than concentrations later in the event, occurred during the first 10 min after the onset of rainfall. Longer simulated storms effectively diluted the first flush.

  15. Mining highly stressed areas, part 2.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Johnson, R


    Full Text Available A questionnaire related to mining at great depth and in very high stress conditions has been completed with the assistance of mine rock mechanics personnel on over twenty mines in all mining districts, and covering all deep level mines...

  16. Hydrogeochemical Characteristics of Groundwater Highly Polluted with Nitrate in an Agricultural Area of Hongseong, Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun-su Kim


    Full Text Available The hydrogeochemical characteristics of groundwater, in an area where widespread contamination by nitrate ( NO 3 − was anticipated, were studied using traditional geochemical investigation and multivariate statistical analysis. Widespread NO 3 − contamination as high as 67.2 mg/L as NO3–N was observed, and positively correlated with that for chemicals ( Cl − , major cations with surface origin. Principal component analysis (PCA revealed that three processes affected groundwater chemistry of the area: (1 leaching of pollutants from the ground surface; (2 reduction of NO 3 − in areas with low dissolved oxygen (DO; and (3 ingress of low NO 3 − deep groundwater. Five sample groups were identified from cluster analysis, and analysis of land use patterns around each group showed that fate and distribution of NO 3 − contamination were mainly controlled by surface topography and predominant land use type. The highest NO 3 − concentrations were associated with confined livestock feeding operations in hilly terrain areas, where infiltrating water also had high DO. Lower NO 3 − concentrations found in the lowland flat areas were thought to be due to either reducing conditions in rice paddies leading to N attenuation or drawing in of deep groundwater by pumping to meet agricultural needs during periods of low rainfall.

  17. An Operative X-band Mini-radar Network to Monitor Rainfall Events with High Time and Space Resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Bertoldo


    Full Text Available The increasing frequency of extreme and very localized precipitation events have been causing landslides, floods and casualties, especially in Sicily, due to its complex orography, and to the presence of densely inhabited areas just at the mouth of small basins. In order to monitor such phenomena with the needed high resolution in time and space, an experimental network of X-band mini-radars, exclusively devoted to monitor rain, has been installed in some parts of Sicily since November 2010. The network is made up by 4 mini weather radars able to acquire a rain map every minute (or even at shorter intervals with a radial space resolution better than 100 m within a range of up to 30 km. Their low cost and the easiness of installation make such radars ideal for monitoring small areas or even just limited angular sectors, since it is more convenient to install more than one instrument instead of choosing special site locations or spending for installation support. The raw data are immediately processed in real time by the software installed on each radar unit, Cartesian maps are locally produced, compressed and transmitted via GPRS to a server where ad hoc products for the users are prepared and made available on a web site. A few examples of final products and some comparisons with rain gauges are presented.

  18. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick


    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...... necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall...... estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...

  19. Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Cross


    Full Text Available Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett–Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett–Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

  20. Quality-control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK. (United States)

    Blenkinsop, Stephen; Lewis, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven C; Fowler, Hayley J


    Sub-daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non-operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short-duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub-daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near-complete hourly records for 1992-2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n-largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north-south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub-daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality-controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality-control procedures for sub-daily data, the validation of the new generation of very high

  1. Rainfall feedback via persistent effects on bioaerosols (United States)

    Bigg, E. K.; Soubeyrand, S.; Morris, C. E.


    Consistent temporal differences between ice nucleus concentrations after and before a heavy fall of rain have been found in four areas of Australia. Closely similar differences were found between rainfall quantity or frequency at 106 sites in south-eastern and 61 sites in south-western Australia that had >92 years of daily rainfall records. The differences suggest an impulsive increase in ice nuclei or in rain on the day following heavy rain that decreased exponentially with time and was often still detectable after 20 days. The similarity of ice nucleus concentrations, bacterial populations, bioaerosols and rainfall responses to heavy rain strongly corroborate the involvement of biological ice nuclei in a rainfall feedback process. Cumulative differences of after-before rainfall amount or frequency for each rainfall event were next combined to form a historical record of the feedback process for each site. Comparison of cumulative totals pre-1960 and post-1960 showed differences bearing apparent relations to upwind coal-fired power stations, growth of metropolitan areas and increased areas of cultivation of wheat. These observations suggested that fungal spores or other bioaerosols as well as ice-nucleating bacteria were involved in the feedback. The overall conclusion is that interactions between micro-organisms, bioaerosols and rainfall have impacts over longer time spans and are stronger than have been previously described.

  2. Rainfall Variability of South East Queensland (United States)

    Wilson, Louise; Manton, Michael; Siems, Steven


    The seasonal weather of southeastern Queensland (SEQ) is commonly described by a wet and a dry season. Rainfall in this area has been declining for the past fifty years and climate projections indicate decreasing trends in annual rainfall and increases in temperature. These factors combined with population growth suggest a need for Queensland to re-evaluate its water management. In order to understand the rainfall variability of SEQ, it is useful to consider the impact of the different weather patterns or synoptic regimes on the regional rainfall. Previous studies have examined the synoptic patterns associated with extreme wind and rainfall events in SEQ and the correlation between rainfall in northern Queensland and atmospheric variables, but a comprehensive climatology for the SEQ region is missing. Analysis of routine soundings is found to reveal relationships between surface precipitation and atmospheric structure. Cluster analysis was performed on daily radiosonde data for Brisbane Airport spanning the period 01/01/1990-11/11/2009. The clustering was initially performed on seven atmospheric variables: total-totals, 850mb winds, wind shear between 850mb and 500mb, moisture flux and total water calculated from the sounding data. A sensitivity study reveals that the moisture flux parameters followed by total water and total-totals are the key variables in determining the regimes. The clusters were combined with daily rainfall records spanning the period 01/01/1995 - 01/06/2008 to determine the contribution of each regime to monthly rainfall. The seven-cluster case describes three separate southeasterly regimes, three westerly regimes and an easterly regime. The contribution of each regime to annual rainfall was also determined. The regimes for SEQ can be divided into ‘wet' and ‘dry' cases. It is apparent that the rainfall is largely limited to the coastal strip, with maxima near regions with steep terrain. The main rainfall period is from November through to

  3. Assessment of probabilistic areal reduction factors of precipitations for the entire French territory with gridded rainfall data. (United States)

    Fouchier, Catherine; Maire, Alexis; Arnaud, Patrick; Cantet, Philippe; Odry, Jean


    high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis over France with the SAFRAN-gauge-based analysis system (Vidal et al., 2010). We have then built samples of maximal rainfalls for each cell location (the "point" rainfalls) and for different areas centered on each cell location (the areal rainfalls) of these gridded data. To compute rainfall quantiles, we have fitted a Gumbel law, with the L-moment method, on each of these samples. Our daily and hourly ARF have then shown four main trends: i) a sensitivity to the return period, with ARF values decreasing when the return period increases; ii) a sensitivity to the rainfall duration, with ARF values decreasing when the rainfall duration decreases; iii) a sensitivity to the season, with ARF values smaller for the summer period than for the winter period; iv) a sensitivity to the geographical location, with low ARF values in the French Mediterranean area and ARF values close to 1 for the climatic zones of Northern and Western France (oceanic to semi-continental climate). The results of this data-intensive study led for the first time on the whole French territory are in agreement with studies led abroad (e.g. Allen and DeGaetano 2005, Overeem et al. 2010) and confirm and widen the results of previous studies that were carried out in France on smaller areas and with fewer rainfall durations (e.g. Ramos et al., 2006, Neppel et al., 2003). References Allen R. J. and DeGaetano A. T. (2005). Areal reduction factors for two eastern United States regions with high rain-gauge density. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 10(4): 327-335. Arnaud P., Fine J.-A. and Lavabre J. (2007). An hourly rainfall generation model applicable to all types of climate. Atmospheric Research 85(2): 230-242. Cantet, P. and Arnaud, P. (2014). Extreme rainfall analysis by a stochastic model: impact of the copula choice on the sub-daily rainfall generation, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 28(6), 1479-1492. Neppel L

  4. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily (United States)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe


    The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce

  5. The potential of urban rainfall monitoring with crowdsourced automatic weather stations in Amsterdam (United States)

    de Vos, Lotte; Leijnse, Hidde; Overeem, Aart; Uijlenhoet, Remko


    The high density of built-up areas and resulting imperviousness of the land surface makes urban areas vulnerable to extreme rainfall, which can lead to considerable damage. In order to design and manage cities to be able to deal with the growing number of extreme rainfall events, rainfall data are required at higher temporal and spatial resolutions than those needed for rural catchments. However, the density of operational rainfall monitoring networks managed by local or national authorities is typically low in urban areas. A growing number of automatic personal weather stations (PWSs) link rainfall measurements to online platforms. Here, we examine the potential of such crowdsourced datasets for obtaining the desired resolution and quality of rainfall measurements for the capital of the Netherlands. Data from 63 stations in Amsterdam (˜ 575 km2) that measure rainfall over at least 4 months in a 17-month period are evaluated. In addition, a detailed assessment is made of three Netatmo stations, the largest contributor to this dataset, in an experimental setup. The sensor performance in the experimental setup and the density of the PWS network are promising. However, features in the online platforms, like rounding and thresholds, cause changes from the original time series, resulting in considerable errors in the datasets obtained. These errors are especially large during low-intensity rainfall, although they can be reduced by accumulating rainfall over longer intervals. Accumulation improves the correlation coefficient with gauge-adjusted radar data from 0.48 at 5 min intervals to 0.60 at hourly intervals. Spatial rainfall correlation functions derived from PWS data show much more small-scale variability than those based on gauge-adjusted radar data and those found in similar research using dedicated rain gauge networks. This can largely be attributed to the noise in the PWS data resulting from both the measurement setup and the processes occurring in the data

  6. Identification and Diagnosis of Rainfall Types over Southern West Africa Using Satellite and Rain Gauge Data (United States)

    Maranan, Marlon; Fink, Andreas H.; Amekudzi, Leonard K.; Atiah, Winifred A.


    Rainfall over Southern West Africa (SWA) is mainly controlled by the West African Monsoon circulation. Not much is known, however, about the (thermo-)dynamic environmental conditions and storm dynamics of various regional rainfall systems that contribute to the total annual rainfall. This study exploits both satellite and rain gauge measurements to quantify the contribution and to examine the importance of different rainfall types in SWA. For the period of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 1998-2014, the rainfall types are identified by analyzing the 3-D reflectivity structure using scans of the TRMM Precipitation Radar (TRMM-PR). Since TRMM-PR scans only provide instantaneous snapshots, the rainfall events are then traced back and forward in time with observations from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) over the overlapping period of 2004-2014 to obtain information about their life cycle. The composition of the ensemble of the different rainfall types exhibits a substantial regional variability across SWA. Strong convection (Radar echo > 40 dBZ) generally makes a dominant contribution to the number of rainfall events and to the total rainfall amount. However, the influence of deeper (40 dBZ echo at altitudes > 10 km) and wider (Area of 40 dBZ echo > 1000 km2) systems on the total rainfall amount increases going farther northward into the continent. Additionally, the number of tracks of those systems features relative minima along the Ivorian and Ghanaian-Togolese coast, the latter reflecting the climatologically dry Dahomey Gap. In contrast, local warm rain from isolated shallow convection develops more often along the immediate coast line. Yet, their contribution to total rainfall remains negligible and is almost non-existent further north. Compared with high-resolution rain gauge data around Kumasi, Ghana, for the year 2016, it can be assumed that warm rain events show an even higher occurrence frequency. Likewise, their

  7. Rainfall simulation in education (United States)

    Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia


    Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

  8. Propagation of radar rainfall uncertainty in urban flood simulations (United States)

    Liguori, Sara; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel


    hydrodynamic sewer network model implemented in the Infoworks software was used to model the rainfall-runoff process in the urban area. The software calculates the flow through the sewer conduits of the urban model using rainfall as the primary input. The sewer network is covered by 25 radar pixels with a spatial resolution of 1 km2. The majority of the sewer system is combined, carrying both urban rainfall runoff as well as domestic and trade waste water [11]. The urban model was configured to receive the probabilistic radar rainfall fields. The results showed that the radar rainfall ensembles provide additional information about the uncertainty in the radar rainfall measurements that can be propagated in urban flood modelling. The peaks of the measured flow hydrographs are often bounded within the uncertainty area produced by using the radar rainfall ensembles. This is in fact one of the benefits of using radar rainfall ensembles in urban flood modelling. More work needs to be done in improving the urban models, but this is out of the scope of this research. The rainfall uncertainty cannot explain the whole uncertainty shown in the flow simulations, and additional sources of uncertainty will come from the structure of the urban models as well as the large number of parameters required by these models. Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge the BADC, the UK Met Office and the UK Environment Agency for providing the various data sets. We also thank Yorkshire Water Services Ltd for providing the urban model. The authors acknowledge the support from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) via grant EP/I012222/1. References [1] Browning KA, 1978. Meteorological applications of radar. Reports on Progress in Physics 41 761 Doi: 10.1088/0034-4885/41/5/003 [2] Rico-Ramirez MA, Cluckie ID, Shepherd G, Pallot A, 2007. A high-resolution radar experiment on the island of Jersey. Meteorological Applications 14: 117-129. [3] Villarini G, Krajewski WF

  9. Disaggregating radar-derived rainfall measurements in East Azarbaijan, Iran, using a spatial random-cascade model (United States)

    Fouladi Osgouei, Hojjatollah; Zarghami, Mahdi; Ashouri, Hamed


    The availability of spatial, high-resolution rainfall data is one of the most essential needs in the study of water resources. These data are extremely valuable in providing flood awareness for dense urban and industrial areas. The first part of this paper applies an optimization-based method to the calibration of radar data based on ground rainfall gauges. Then, the climatological Z-R relationship for the Sahand radar, located in the East Azarbaijan province of Iran, with the help of three adjacent rainfall stations, is obtained. The new climatological Z-R relationship with a power-law form shows acceptable statistical performance, making it suitable for radar-rainfall estimation by the Sahand radar outputs. The second part of the study develops a new heterogeneous random-cascade model for spatially disaggregating the rainfall data resulting from the power-law model. This model is applied to the radar-rainfall image data to disaggregate rainfall data with coverage area of 512 × 512 km2 to a resolution of 32 × 32 km2. Results show that the proposed model has a good ability to disaggregate rainfall data, which may lead to improvement in precipitation forecasting, and ultimately better water-resources management in this arid region, including Urmia Lake.

  10. Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun


    This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

  11. Snowmelt water drives higher soil erosion than rainfall water in a mid-high latitude upland watershed (United States)

    Wu, Yuyang; Ouyang, Wei; Hao, Zengchao; Yang, Bowen; Wang, Li


    The impacts of precipitation and temperature on soil erosion are pronounced in mid-high latitude areas, which lead to seasonal variations in soil erosion. Determining the critical erosion periods and the reasons behind the increased erosion loads are essential for soil management decisions. Hence, integrated approaches combining experiments and modelling based on field investigations were applied to investigate watershed soil erosion characteristics and the dynamics of water movement through soils. Long-term and continuous data for surface runoff and soil erosion variation characteristics of uplands in a watershed were observed via five simulations by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In addition, laboratory experiments were performed to quantify the actual soil infiltrabilities in snowmelt seasons (thawed treatment) and rainy seasons (non-frozen treatment). The results showed that over the course of a year, average surface runoff and soil erosion reached peak values of 31.38 mm and 1.46 t ha-1 a-1, respectively, in the month of April. They also ranked high in July and August, falling in the ranges of 23.73 mm to 24.91 mm and 0.55 t ha-1 a-1 to 0.59 t ha-1 a-1, respectively. With the infiltration time extended, thawed soils showed lower infiltrabilities than non-frozen soils, and the differences in soil infiltration amounts between these two were considerable. These results highlighted that soil erosion was very closely and positively correlated with surface runoff. Soil loss was higher in snowmelt periods than in rainy periods due to the higher surface runoff in early spring, and the decreased soil infiltrability in snowmelt periods contributed much to this higher surface runoff. These findings are helpful for identification of critical soil erosion periods when making soil management before critical months, especially those before snowmelt periods.

  12. Forecasting Global Point Rainfall using ECMWF's Ensemble Forecasting System (United States)

    Pillosu, Fatima; Hewson, Timothy; Zsoter, Ervin; Baugh, Calum


    ECMWF (the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts), in collaboration with the EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) and GLOFAS (GLObal Flood Awareness System) teams, has developed a new operational system that post-processes grid box rainfall forecasts from its ensemble forecasting system to provide global probabilistic point-rainfall predictions. The project attains a higher forecasting skill by applying an understanding of how different rainfall generation mechanisms lead to different degrees of sub-grid variability in rainfall totals. In turn this approach facilitates identification of cases in which very localized extreme totals are much more likely. This approach aims also to improve the rainfall input required in different hydro-meteorological applications. Flash flood forecasting, in particular in urban areas, is a good example. In flash flood scenarios precipitation is typically characterised by high spatial variability and response times are short. In this case, to move beyond radar based now casting, the classical approach has been to use very high resolution hydro-meteorological models. Of course these models are valuable but they can represent only very limited areas, may not be spatially accurate and may give reasonable results only for limited lead times. On the other hand, our method aims to use a very cost-effective approach to downscale global rainfall forecasts to a point scale. It needs only rainfall totals from standard global reporting stations and forecasts over a relatively short period to train it, and it can give good results even up to day 5. For these reasons we believe that this approach better satisfies user needs around the world. This presentation aims to describe two phases of the project: The first phase, already completed, is the implementation of this new system to provide 6 and 12 hourly point-rainfall accumulation probabilities. To do this we use a limited number of physically relevant global model parameters (i

  13. Modifying rainfall patterns in a Mediterranean shrubland: system design, plant responses, and experimental burning. (United States)

    Parra, Antonio; Ramírez, David A; Resco, Víctor; Velasco, Ángel; Moreno, José M


    Global warming is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the Mediterranean region, as well as the occurrence of large fires. Understanding the interactions between drought, fire and plant responses is therefore important. In this study, we present an experiment in which rainfall patterns were modified to simulate various levels of drought in a Mediterranean shrubland of central Spain dominated by Cistus ladanifer, Erica arborea and Phillyrea angustifolia. A system composed of automatic rainout shelters with an irrigation facility was used. It was designed to be applied in vegetation 2 m tall, treat relatively large areas (36 m2), and be quickly dismantled to perform experimental burning and reassembled back again. Twenty plots were subjected to four rainfall treatments from early spring: natural rainfall, long-term average rainfall (2 months drought), moderate drought (25% reduction from long-term rainfall, 5 months drought) and severe drought (45% reduction, 7 months drought). The plots were burned in late summer, without interfering with rainfall manipulations. Results indicated that rainfall manipulations caused differences in soil moisture among treatments, leading to reduced water availability and growth of C. ladanifer and E. arborea in the drought treatments. However, P. angustifolia was not affected by the manipulations. Rainout shelters had a negligible impact on plot microenvironment. Experimental burns were of high fire intensity, without differences among treatments. Our system provides a tool to study the combined effects of drought and fire on vegetation, which is important to assess the threats posed by climate change in Mediterranean environments.

  14. Weekend Effect" in Summertime U.S. Rainfall: Evidence for Midweek Intensification of Storms by Pollution (United States)

    Bell, Thomas L.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Hahnenberger, Maura


    Persistent and strong dependence of rain rate on the day of the week has been found in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates of summer afternoon rainfall over the southeast U.S. and the nearby Atlantic from 1998 to 2005. Midweek (Tue-Thu) rain rates and rain area appear to increase over land, and this increase is accompanied by a corresponding diminution of rainfall over nearby waters. Reanalysis data from atmospheric models, suggest that there is a corresponding weekly variation in atmospheric winds consistent with the changes in rainfall. These variations are almost certainly caused by weekly variations in human activity. The most likely cause of the observed changes in rainfall is the well documented weekly variation in atmospheric pollution. Particulate pollution is highest in the middle of the week. Considerable observational and modeling evidence has accumulated concerning the effects of aerosols on precipitation. Most of this evidence relates to the suppression of precipitation by aerosols, but it has been argued that storms in highly unstable moist environments can be invigorated by aerosols, and some modeling studies seem to confirm this. The strong weekly cycle in rainfall observed over the southeast U.S. along with what appears to be dynamical suppression of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic, and the lack of an observable cycle over the southwest U.S., are consistent with this theory.

  15. Modifying rainfall patterns in a Mediterranean shrubland: system design, plant responses, and experimental burning (United States)

    Parra, Antonio; Ramírez, David A.; Resco, Víctor; Velasco, Ángel; Moreno, José M.


    Global warming is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the Mediterranean region, as well as the occurrence of large fires. Understanding the interactions between drought, fire and plant responses is therefore important. In this study, we present an experiment in which rainfall patterns were modified to simulate various levels of drought in a Mediterranean shrubland of central Spain dominated by Cistus ladanifer, Erica arborea and Phillyrea angustifolia. A system composed of automatic rainout shelters with an irrigation facility was used. It was designed to be applied in vegetation 2 m tall, treat relatively large areas (36 m2), and be quickly dismantled to perform experimental burning and reassembled back again. Twenty plots were subjected to four rainfall treatments from early spring: natural rainfall, long-term average rainfall (2 months drought), moderate drought (25% reduction from long-term rainfall, 5 months drought) and severe drought (45% reduction, 7 months drought). The plots were burned in late summer, without interfering with rainfall manipulations. Results indicated that rainfall manipulations caused differences in soil moisture among treatments, leading to reduced water availability and growth of C. ladanifer and E. arborea in the drought treatments. However, P. angustifolia was not affected by the manipulations. Rainout shelters had a negligible impact on plot microenvironment. Experimental burns were of high fire intensity, without differences among treatments. Our system provides a tool to study the combined effects of drought and fire on vegetation, which is important to assess the threats posed by climate change in Mediterranean environments.

  16. Toxicity of parking lot runoff after application of simulated rainfall. (United States)

    Greenstein, D; Tiefenthaler, L; Bay, S


    Stormwater runoff is an important source of toxic substances to the marine environment, but the effects of antecedent dry period, rainfall intensity, and duration on the toxicity of runoff are not well understood. In this study, simulated rainfall was applied to parking lots to examine the toxicity of runoff while controlling for antecedent period, intensity, and duration of rainfall. Parking areas were divided into high and low use and maintained and unmaintained treatments. The parking stalls were cleaned by pressure washing at time zero. Simulated rainfall was then applied to subplots of the parking lots so that antecedent periods of 1, 2, and 3 months were achieved, and all of the runoff was collected for analysis. On a separate parking lot, rainfall was applied at a variety of intensities and durations after a 3-month antecedent period. Runoff samples were tested for toxicity using the purple sea urchin fertilization test. Every runoff sample tested was found to be toxic. Mean toxicity for the sea urchin fertilization test ranged from 2.0 to 12.1 acute toxic units. The toxicity increased rapidly during the first month but then decreased approximately to precleaning levels and remained there. No difference in toxicity was found between the different levels of use or maintenance treatments. The intensity and duration of rainfall were inversely related to degree of toxicity. For all intensities tested, toxicity was always greatest in the first sampling time interval. Dissolved zinc was most likely the primary cause of toxicity based on toxicant characterization of selected runoff samples.

  17. Rainfall Variability and Agricultural Vulnerability in the Amhara ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ethiopian agriculture is mostly rain fed, whereas inter-annual and seasonal rainfall variability is high and droughts are frequent in many parts of the country. Rainfall variability has historically been a major cause of food insecurity and famines in the country. Surprisingly, however, the relationships between rainfall variability ...

  18. An assessment of the performance of global rainfall estimates without ground-based observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Massari


    Full Text Available Satellite-based rainfall estimates over land have great potential for a wide range of applications, but their validation is challenging due to the scarcity of ground-based observations of rainfall in many areas of the planet. Recent studies have suggested the use of triple collocation (TC to characterize uncertainties associated with rainfall estimates by using three collocated rainfall products. However, TC requires the simultaneous availability of three products with mutually uncorrelated errors, a requirement which is difficult to satisfy with current global precipitation data sets. In this study, a recently developed method for rainfall estimation from soil moisture observations, SM2RAIN, is demonstrated to facilitate the accurate application of TC within triplets containing two state-of-the-art satellite rainfall estimates and a reanalysis product. The validity of different TC assumptions are indirectly tested via a high-quality ground rainfall product over the contiguous United States (CONUS, showing that SM2RAIN can provide a truly independent source of rainfall accumulation information which uniquely satisfies the assumptions underlying TC. On this basis, TC is applied with SM2RAIN on a global scale in an optimal configuration to calculate, for the first time, reliable global correlations (vs. an unknown truth of the aforementioned products without using a ground benchmark data set. The analysis is carried out during the period 2007–2012 using daily rainfall accumulation products obtained at 1° × 1° spatial resolution. Results convey the relatively high performance of the satellite rainfall estimates in eastern North and South America, southern Africa, southern and eastern Asia, eastern Australia, and southern Europe, as well as complementary performances between the reanalysis product and SM2RAIN, with the first performing reasonably well in the Northern Hemisphere and the second providing very good performance in the Southern

  19. An assessment of the performance of global rainfall estimates without ground-based observations (United States)

    Massari, Christian; Crow, Wade; Brocca, Luca


    Satellite-based rainfall estimates over land have great potential for a wide range of applications, but their validation is challenging due to the scarcity of ground-based observations of rainfall in many areas of the planet. Recent studies have suggested the use of triple collocation (TC) to characterize uncertainties associated with rainfall estimates by using three collocated rainfall products. However, TC requires the simultaneous availability of three products with mutually uncorrelated errors, a requirement which is difficult to satisfy with current global precipitation data sets. In this study, a recently developed method for rainfall estimation from soil moisture observations, SM2RAIN, is demonstrated to facilitate the accurate application of TC within triplets containing two state-of-the-art satellite rainfall estimates and a reanalysis product. The validity of different TC assumptions are indirectly tested via a high-quality ground rainfall product over the contiguous United States (CONUS), showing that SM2RAIN can provide a truly independent source of rainfall accumulation information which uniquely satisfies the assumptions underlying TC. On this basis, TC is applied with SM2RAIN on a global scale in an optimal configuration to calculate, for the first time, reliable global correlations (vs. an unknown truth) of the aforementioned products without using a ground benchmark data set. The analysis is carried out during the period 2007-2012 using daily rainfall accumulation products obtained at 1° × 1° spatial resolution. Results convey the relatively high performance of the satellite rainfall estimates in eastern North and South America, southern Africa, southern and eastern Asia, eastern Australia, and southern Europe, as well as complementary performances between the reanalysis product and SM2RAIN, with the first performing reasonably well in the Northern Hemisphere and the second providing very good performance in the Southern Hemisphere. The

  20. A nonlinear model coupling rockfall and rainfall intensity based ewline on a four year measurement in a high Alpine rock wall (Reintal, German Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Krautblatter


    Full Text Available A total of more than 140 000 kg of small-magnitude rockfall deposits was measured in eight rockfall collectors of altogether 940 m2 in size between 1999–2003 below a 400–600 m high rock face in the Reintal, German Alps. Measurements were conducted with a temporal resolution up to single days to attribute rockfall intensity to observed triggering events. Precipitation was assessed by a rain gauge and high-resolution precipitation radar. Intense rainstorms triggered previously unreported rockfall intensities of up to 300 000 g/(m2h that we term "secondary rockfall event." In comparison to dry periods without frost (10−2g/(m2h, rockfall deposition increased by 2–218 times during wet freeze-thaw cycles and by 56-thousand to 40-million times during secondary rockfall events. We obtained three nonlinear logistic growth models that relate rockfall intensity [g/(m2h] to rainfall intensity [mm/h]. The models account for different rock wall intermediate storage volumes, triggering thresholds and storage depletion. They apply to all rockfall collector positions with correlations from R2=0.89 to 0.99. Thus, the timing of more than 90% of the encountered rockfall is explained by the triggering factor rainfall intensity. A combination of rockfall response models with radar-supported storm cell forecast could be used to anticipate hazardous rockfall events, and help to reduce the exposure of individuals and mobile structures (e.g. cable cars to the hazard. According to meteorological recordings, the frequency of these intense rockfall events is likely to increase in response to global warming.

  1. The Climatology of Extreme Rainfall in the Eastern US (Invited) (United States)

    Smith, J. A.; Baeck, M. L.; Yeung, J. K.; Villarini, G.; Krajewski, W. F.


    Recent studies have shown that flood peak distributions in the eastern US can be represented through mixtures of flood generating mechanisms, including landfalling tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones and organized convective systems. The eastern US is a complex setting for examining rainfall climatology, with land-ocean boundaries, mountainous terrain and the urban megalopolis all playing important roles in controlling rainfall distribution. In this study we examine the dynamics of extreme rainfall in the eastern US through a combination of observational analyses and numerical modeling studies. Observational analyses utilize long records of high-resolution rainfall fields from the Hydro-NEXRAD system. We also utilize observational resources from the Princeton environmental sensor network, including a network of rain gages and disdrometer, to examine rainfall microstructure. Numerical model studies are based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In addition to rainfall microstructure, analyses focus on spatial heterogeneities of rainfall associated with land surface processes and the diurnal cycle of warm season rainfall.

  2. Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale (United States)

    Peleg, Nadav; Marra, Francesco; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo


    Extreme rainfall is quantified in engineering practice using Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) that are traditionally derived from rain-gauges and more recently also from remote sensing instruments, such as weather radars. These instruments measure rainfall at different spatial scales: rain-gauge samples rainfall at the point scale while weather radar averages precipitation on a relatively large area, generally around 1 km2. As such, a radar derived IDF curve is representative of the mean areal rainfall over a given radar pixel and neglects the within-pixel rainfall variability. In this study, we quantify subpixel variability of extreme rainfall by using a novel space-time rainfall generator (STREAP model) that downscales in space the rainfall within a given radar pixel. The study was conducted using a unique radar data record (23 years) and a very dense rain-gauge network in the Eastern Mediterranean area (northern Israel). Radar-IDF curves, together with an ensemble of point-based IDF curves representing the radar subpixel extreme rainfall variability, were developed fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to annual rainfall maxima. It was found that the mean areal extreme rainfall derived from the radar underestimate most of the extreme values computed for point locations within the radar pixel (on average, ∼70%). The subpixel variability of rainfall extreme was found to increase with longer return periods and shorter durations (e.g. from a maximum variability of 10% for a return period of 2 years and a duration of 4 h to 30% for 50 years return period and 20 min duration). For the longer return periods, a considerable enhancement of extreme rainfall variability was found when stochastic (natural) climate variability was taken into account. Bounding the range of the subpixel extreme rainfall derived from radar-IDF can be of major importance for different applications that require very local estimates of rainfall extremes.

  3. Effect of monthly areal rainfall uncertainty on streamflow simulation (United States)

    Ndiritu, J. G.; Mkhize, N.


    Areal rainfall is mostly obtained from point rainfall measurements that are sparsely located and several studies have shown that this results in large areal rainfall uncertainties at the daily time step. However, water resources assessment is often carried out a monthly time step and streamflow simulation is usually an essential component of this assessment. This study set out to quantify monthly areal rainfall uncertainties and assess their effect on streamflow simulation. This was achieved by; i) quantifying areal rainfall uncertainties and using these to generate stochastic monthly areal rainfalls, and ii) finding out how the quality of monthly streamflow simulation and streamflow variability change if stochastic areal rainfalls are used instead of historic areal rainfalls. Tests on monthly rainfall uncertainty were carried out using data from two South African catchments while streamflow simulation was confined to one of them. A non-parametric model that had been applied at a daily time step was used for stochastic areal rainfall generation and the Pitman catchment model calibrated using the SCE-UA optimizer was used for streamflow simulation. 100 randomly-initialised calibration-validation runs using 100 stochastic areal rainfalls were compared with 100 runs obtained using the single historic areal rainfall series. By using 4 rain gauges alternately to obtain areal rainfall, the resulting differences in areal rainfall averaged to 20% of the mean monthly areal rainfall and rainfall uncertainty was therefore highly significant. Pitman model simulations obtained coefficient of efficiencies averaging 0.66 and 0.64 in calibration and validation using historic rainfalls while the respective values using stochastic areal rainfalls were 0.59 and 0.57. Average bias was less than 5% in all cases. The streamflow ranges using historic rainfalls averaged to 29% of the mean naturalised flow in calibration and validation and the respective average ranges using stochastic

  4. The relation of vegetation over the Tibetan Plateau to rainfall in China during the boreal summer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zuo, Zhiyan; Zhang, Renhe [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Beijing (China); Zhao, Ping [National Meteorological Information Centre, Beijing (China)


    The relationship between vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and summer (June-August) rainfall in China is investigated using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Earth Resources Observation System and observed rainfall data from surface 616 stations in China for the period 1982-2001. The leading mode of empirical orthogonal functions analysis for summer rainfall variability in China shows a negative anomaly in the area from the Yangtze River valley to the Yellow River valley (YYR) and most of western China, and positive anomalies in southern China and North China. This mode is significantly correlated with summer NDVI around the southern TP. This finding indicates that vegetation around the southern TP has a positive correlation with summer rainfall in southern China and North China, but a negative correlation with summer rainfall in YYR and western China. We investigate the physical process by which vegetation change affects summer rainfall in China. Increased vegetation around the southern TP is associated with a descending motion anomaly on the TP and the neighboring area to the east, resulting in reduced surface heating and a lower Bowen ratio, accompanied by weaker divergence in the upper troposphere and convergence in the lower troposphere on the TP. In turn, these changes result in the weakening of and a westward shift in the southern Asian High in the upper troposphere and thereby the weakening of and an eastward withdrawal in the western Pacific subtropical high. These features result in weak circulation in the East Asian summer monsoon. Consequently, enhanced summer rainfall occurs in southern China and North China, but reduced rainfall in YYR. (orig.)

  5. Quantifying Rainfall Interception Loss of a Subtropical Broadleaved Forest in Central Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Ying Chen


    Full Text Available The factors controlling seasonal rainfall interception loss are investigated by using a double-mass curve analysis, based on direct measurements of high-temporal resolution gross rainfall, throughfall and stemflow from 43 rainfall events that occurred in central Taiwan from April 2008 to April 2009. The canopy water storage capacity for the wet season was estimated to be 1.86 mm, about twice that for the dry season (0.91 mm, likely due to the large reduction in the leaf area index (LAI from 4.63 to 2.23 (m2·m−2. Changes in seasonal canopy structure and micro-meteorological conditions resulted in temporal variations in the amount of interception components, and rainfall partitioning into stemflow and throughfall. Wet canopy evaporation after rainfall contributed 41.8% of the wet season interception loss, but only 17.1% of the dry season interception loss. Wet canopy evaporation during rainfall accounted for 82.9% of the dry season interception loss, but only 58.2% of the wet season interception loss. Throughfall accounted for over 79.7% of the dry season precipitation and 76.1% of the wet season precipitation, possibly due to the change in gap fraction from 64.2% in the dry season to 50.0% in the wet season. The reduced canopy cover in the dry season also produced less stemflow than that of the wet season. The rainfall stemflow ratio ( P s f / P g was reduced from 12.6% to 8.9%. Despite relatively large changes in canopy structure, seasonal variation of the ratio of rainfall partitioned to interception was quite small. Rainfall interception loss accounted for nearly 12% of gross precipitation for both dry and wet seasons.

  6. Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong


    Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

  7. Uncertainty of Areal Rainfall Estimation Using Point Measurements (United States)

    McCarthy, D.; Dotto, C. B. S.; Sun, S.; Bertrand-Krajewski, J. L.; Deletic, A.


    The spatial variability of precipitation has a great influence on the quantity and quality of runoff water generated from hydrological processes. In practice, point rainfall measurements (e.g., rain gauges) are often used to represent areal rainfall in catchments. The spatial rainfall variability is difficult to be precisely captured even with many rain gauges. Thus the rainfall uncertainty due to spatial variability should be taken into account in order to provide reliable rainfall-driven process modelling results. This study investigates the uncertainty of areal rainfall estimation due to rainfall spatial variability if point measurements are applied. The areal rainfall is usually estimated as a weighted sum of data from available point measurements. The expected error of areal rainfall estimates is 0 if the estimation is an unbiased one. The variance of the error between the real and estimated areal rainfall is evaluated to indicate the uncertainty of areal rainfall estimates. This error variance can be expressed as a function of variograms, which was originally applied in geostatistics to characterize a spatial variable. The variogram can be evaluated using measurements from a dense rain gauge network. The areal rainfall errors are evaluated in two areas with distinct climate regimes and rainfall patterns: Greater Lyon area in France and Melbourne area in Australia. The variograms of the two areas are derived based on 6-minute rainfall time series data from 2010 to 2013 and are then used to estimate uncertainties of areal rainfall represented by different numbers of point measurements in synthetic catchments of various sizes. The error variance of areal rainfall using one point measurement in the centre of a 1-km2 catchment is 0.22 (mm/h)2 in Lyon. When the point measurement is placed at one corner of the same-size catchment, the error variance becomes 0.82 (mm/h)2 also in Lyon. Results for Melbourne were similar but presented larger uncertainty. Results

  8. Seasonality in cholera dynamics : a rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns of an infectious disease in endemic areas (United States)

    Baracchini, Theo; Pascual, Mercedes; King, Aaron A.; Bouma, Menno J.; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rinaldo, Andrea


    An explanation for the spatial variability of seasonal cholera patterns has remained an unresolved problem in tropical medicine te{pascual_2002}. Previous studies addressing the role of climate drivers in disease dynamics have focused on interannual variability and modelled seasonality as given te{king_nature}. Explanations for seasonality have relied on complex environmental interactions that vary with spatial location (involving regional hydrological models te{bertuzzo_2012}, river discharge, sea surface temperature, and plankton blooms). Thus, no simple and unified theory based on local climate variables has been formulated te{emch_2008}, leaving our understanding of seasonal variations of cholera outbreaks in different regions of the world incomplete. Through the analysis of a unique historical dataset containing 50 years of monthly meteorological, demographic and epidemiological records, we propose a mechanistic, SIR-based stochastic model for the population dynamics of cholera driven by local rainfall and temperature that is able to capture the full range of seasonal patterns in this large estuarine region, which encompasses the variety of patterns worldwide. Parameter inference was implemented via new statistical methods that allow the computation of maximum-likelihood estimates for partially observed Markov processes through sequential Monte-Carlo te{ionides_2011}. Such a model may provide a unprecedented opportunity to gain insights on the conditions and factors responsible for endemicity around the globe, and therefore, to also revise our understanding of the ecology of Vibrio cholerae. Results indicate that the hydrological regime is a decisive driver determining the seasonal dynamics of cholera. It was found that rainfall and longer water residence times tend to buffer the propagation of the disease in wet regions due to a dilution effect, while also enhancing cholera incidence in dry regions. This indicates that overall water levels matter and appear

  9. Are anthropogenic aerosols affecting rainfall? (United States)

    Junkermann, Wolfgang; Hacker, Jorg


    Modification of cloud microphysics by anthropogenic aerosols is well known since several decades. Whether the underlying processes leads to changes in precipitation is by far less confirmed. Several different factors affect the production of rain in a way that a causality between increasing aerosol load in the atmosphere and a change of annual rainfall is very difficult to confirm. What would be expected as an effect of additional cloud condensation nuclei is a shift in the spatial and temporal rainfall distribution towards a lower number of days with low rain intensity and more frequent or more vigorous single events. In fact such a shift has been observed in several locations worldwide and has been suggested to be caused by increasing aerosol load, however, without further specification of the nature and number of the aerosols involved. Measurements of aerosols which might be important for cloud properties are extremely sparse and no long term monitoring data sets are available up to now. The problem of missing long term aerosol data that could be compared to available long term meteorological data sets can possibly be resolved in certain areas where well characterized large anthropogenic aerosol sources were installed in otherwise pristine areas without significant changes in land use over several decades. We investigated aerosol sources and current aerosol number, size and spatial distributions with airborne measurements in the planetary boundary layer over two regions in Australia that are reported to suffer from extensive drought despite the fact that local to regional scale water vapor in the atmosphere is slowly and constantly increasing. Such an increase of the total water in the planetary boundary layer would imply also an increase in annual precipitation as observed in many other locations elsewhere. The observed decline of rainfall in these areas thus requires a local to regional scale physical process modifying cloud properties in a way that rain

  10. Heavy Rainfall Monitoring by Polarimetric C-Band Weather Radars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Cremonini


    Full Text Available Piemonte region, in the north-western Italy, is characterized by complex orography and Mediterranean influence that often causes extreme rainfall event, during the warm season. Although the region is monitored by a dense gauge network (more than one gauge per 100 km2, the ground measurements are often inadequate to properly observe intense and highly variable precipitations. Polarimetric weather radars provide a unique way to monitor rainfall over wide areas, with the required spatial detail and temporal resolution. Nevertheless, most European weather radar networks are operating at C-band, which may seriously limit quantitative precipitation estimation in heavy rainfall due to relevant power signal attenuation. Phase measurements, unlike power measurements, are not affected by signal attenuation. For this reason, polarimetric radars, for which the differential phase shift measurements are available, provide an additional way in which to estimate precipitation, which is immune to signal attenuation. In this work differential phase based rainfall estimation techniques are applied to analyze two flash-floods: the first one occurred on the Ligurian Apennines on 16 August 2006 and the second occurred on 13 September 2008, causing rain accumulations above 270 mm in few hours.

  11. Seasonal variation and climate change impact in Rainfall Erosivity across Europe (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine; Ballabio, Cristiano


    Rainfall erosivity quantifies the climatic effect on water erosion and is of high importance for soil scientists, land use planners, agronomists, hydrologists and environmental scientists in general. The rainfall erosivity combines the influence of rainfall duration, magnitude, frequency and intensity. Rainfall erosivity is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years). The European Commission's Joint Research Centr(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,675 stations. The interpolation of those point erosivity values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511: 801-815). In 2016, REDES extended with a monthly component, which allowed developing monthly and seasonal erosivity maps and assessing rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally for European Union and Switzerland. The monthly erosivity maps have been used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315). Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year. Finally, the identification of the most erosive month allows recommending certain agricultural management practices (crop

  12. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology (United States)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick; Ellerbæk Nielsen, Jesper; ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Molnar, Peter


    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological applications. The paper also reviews how the focus in urban hydrology research has shifted over the last decade to fields such as climate change impacts, resilience of urban areas to hydrological extremes, and online prediction/warning systems. It is discussed how radar rainfall data can add value to the aforementioned emerging fields in current and future applications, but also to the analysis of integrated water systems.

  13. Uncertainty based modeling of rainfall-runoff: Combined differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and K-means clustering (United States)

    Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad; Nazif, Sara


    Simulation of rainfall-runoff process in urban areas is of great importance considering the consequences and damages of extreme runoff events and floods. The first issue in flood hazard analysis is rainfall simulation. Large scale climate signals have been proved to be effective in rainfall simulation and prediction. In this study, an integrated scheme is developed for rainfall-runoff modeling considering different sources of uncertainty. This scheme includes three main steps of rainfall forecasting, rainfall-runoff simulation and future runoff prediction. In the first step, data driven models are developed and used to forecast rainfall using large scale climate signals as rainfall predictors. Due to high effect of different sources of uncertainty on the output of hydrologic models, in the second step uncertainty associated with input data, model parameters and model structure is incorporated in rainfall-runoff modeling and simulation. Three rainfall-runoff simulation models are developed for consideration of model conceptual (structural) uncertainty in real time runoff forecasting. To analyze the uncertainty of the model structure, streamflows generated by alternative rainfall-runoff models are combined, through developing a weighting method based on K-means clustering. Model parameters and input uncertainty are investigated using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Finally, calibrated rainfall-runoff models are driven using the forecasted rainfall to predict future runoff for the watershed. The proposed scheme is employed in the case study of the Bronx River watershed, New York City. Results of uncertainty analysis of rainfall-runoff modeling reveal that simultaneous estimation of model parameters and input uncertainty significantly changes the probability distribution of the model parameters. It is also observed that by combining the outputs of the hydrological models using the proposed clustering scheme, the accuracy of runoff simulation in the

  14. On the relationship of coastal tropical rainfall and the large-scale atmosphere

    CERN Document Server

    Bergemann, Martin; Lane, Todd P


    Rainfall in coastal areas of the tropics is often shaped by the presence of circulations directly associated with the topography, such as land-sea and/or mountain-valley breezes. In many regions the coastally-affected rainfall consitutes more than half of the overall rainfall received. Weather and climate models with parametrized convection produce large errors in rainfall in tropical coastal regions, most commonly underestimating rainfall over land and overestimating it over the ocean. Building on an algorithm to objectively identify rainfall that is associated with land-sea interaction we investigate whether the relationship between rainfall in coastal regions and the large-scale atmosphere differs from that over the open ocean or over inland areas. We combine 3-hourly satellite estimates of rainfall with estimates of the large-scale atmospheric state from reanalyses. We find that when grouped by rainfall intensity, medium-intensity coastal rainfall in the tropics occurs in more stable conditions and drier ...

  15. Impact of rainfall spatial aggregation on the identification of debris flow occurrence thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Marra


    Full Text Available The systematic underestimation observed in debris flow early warning thresholds has been associated with the use of sparse rain gauge networks to represent highly non-stationary rainfall fields. Remote sensing products permit concurrent estimates of debris-flow-triggering rainfall for areas poorly covered by rain gauges, but the impact of using coarse spatial resolutions to represent such rainfall fields is still to be assessed. This study uses fine-resolution radar data for ∼  100 debris flows in the eastern Italian Alps to (i quantify the effect of spatial aggregation (1–20 km grid size on the estimation of debris-flow-triggering rainfall and on the identification of early warning thresholds and (ii compare thresholds derived from aggregated estimates and rain gauge networks of different densities. The impact of spatial aggregation is influenced by the spatial organization of rainfall and by its dependence on the severity of the triggering rainfall. Thresholds from aggregated estimates show 8–21 % variation in the parameters whereas 10–25 % systematic variation results from the use of rain gauge networks, even for densities as high as 1∕10 km−2.

  16. Impact of rainfall spatial aggregation on the identification of debris flow occurrence thresholds (United States)

    Marra, Francesco; Destro, Elisa; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Zoccatelli, Davide; Creutin, Jean Dominique; Guzzetti, Fausto; Borga, Marco


    The systematic underestimation observed in debris flow early warning thresholds has been associated with the use of sparse rain gauge networks to represent highly non-stationary rainfall fields. Remote sensing products permit concurrent estimates of debris-flow-triggering rainfall for areas poorly covered by rain gauges, but the impact of using coarse spatial resolutions to represent such rainfall fields is still to be assessed. This study uses fine-resolution radar data for ˜  100 debris flows in the eastern Italian Alps to (i) quantify the effect of spatial aggregation (1-20 km grid size) on the estimation of debris-flow-triggering rainfall and on the identification of early warning thresholds and (ii) compare thresholds derived from aggregated estimates and rain gauge networks of different densities. The impact of spatial aggregation is influenced by the spatial organization of rainfall and by its dependence on the severity of the triggering rainfall. Thresholds from aggregated estimates show 8-21 % variation in the parameters whereas 10-25 % systematic variation results from the use of rain gauge networks, even for densities as high as 1/10 km-2.

  17. Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro José Back


    Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

  18. Application of the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Recharge estimation in arid and semi-arid areas is very challenging. The chloride mass balance method applied in western South Africa fails to provide reliable recharge estimates near coastal areas. A relationship between rainfall events and water level fluctuations (WLF) on a monthly basis was proposed in the rainfall ...

  19. Remote sensing estimates of impervious surfaces for hydrological modelling of changes in flood risk during high-intensity rainfall events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Fensholt, Rasmus; Drews, Martin

    This paper addresses the accuracy and applicability of medium resolution (MR) remote sensing estimates of impervious surfaces (IS) for urban land cover change analysis. Landsat-based vegetation indices (VI) are found to provide fairly accurate measurements of sub-pixel imperviousness for urban...... areas at different geographical locations within Europe, and to be applicable for cities with diverse morphologies and dissimilar climatic and vegetative conditions. Detailed data on urban land cover changes can be used to examine the diverse environmental impacts of past and present urbanisation...

  20. Modelling and assessment of urban flood hazards based on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves reformation


    Ghazavi, Reza; Moafi Rabori, Ali; Ahadnejad Reveshty, Mohsen


    Estimate design storm based on rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves is an important parameter for hydrologic planning of urban areas. The main aim of this study was to estimate rainfall intensities of Zanjan city watershed based on overall relationship of rainfall IDF curves and appropriate model of hourly rainfall estimation (Sherman method, Ghahreman and Abkhezr method). Hydrologic and hydraulic impacts of rainfall IDF curves change in flood properties was evaluated via Stormw...

  1. Analysis of trends in the Sahelian 'rain-use efficiency' using GIMMS NDVI, RFE and GPCP rainfall data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fensholt, Rasmus; Rasmussen, Kjeld


    Rain-use efficiency (RUE; the ratio of vegetation productivity to annual precipitation) has been suggested as a measure for assessing land degradation in arid/semi-arid areas. In the absence of anthropogenic influence, RUE has been reported to be constant over time, and any observed change may...... therefore be attributed to non-rainfall impacts. This study presents an analysis of the decadal time-scale changes in the relationship between a proxy for vegetation productivity (SNDVI) and annual rainfall in the Sahel-Sudanian zone of Africa. The aim is to test the quality of data input and the usefulness....... An alternativemethod identify temporal trends in residuals of SNDVI, after regressing it against annual rainfall, is tested, yet is shown to be useful only where a high correlation between SNDVI and annual rainfall exists. For the areas in the Sahel-Sudanian zone forwhich this condition is fulfilled, trend analyses...

  2. Spatiotemporal variations in rainfall erosivity during the period of 1960-2011 in Guangdong Province, southern China (United States)

    Zhao, Qinghe; Liu, Qian; Ma, Lijiao; Ding, Shengyan; Xu, Shanshan; Wu, Changsong; Liu, Pu


    Rainfall erosivity, which shows a potential risk of soil loss caused by water erosion, is an important factor in soil erosion process. In consideration of the critical condition of soil erosion induced by rainfall in Guangdong Province of southern China, this study analyzed the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall erosivity based on daily rainfall data observed at 25 meteorological stations during the period of 1960-2011. The methods of global spatial autocorrelation, kriging interpolation, Mann-Kendall test, and continuous wavelet transform were used. Results revealed that the annual rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province, which spatially varied with the maximum level observed in June, was classified as high erosivity with two peaks that occur in spring and summer. In the direction of south-north, mean annual rainfall erosivity, which showed significant relationships with mean annual rainfall and latitude, gradually decreased with the high values mainly distributed in the coastal area and the low values mainly occurring in the lowlands of northwestern Guangdong. Meanwhile, a significant positive spatial autocorrelation which implied a clustered pattern was observed for annual rainfall erosivity. The spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall erosivity exhibited clustering tendencies, except spring erosivity with Moran's I and Z values of 0.1 and 1.04, respectively. The spatial distribution of monthly rainfall erosivity presented clustered patterns in January-March and July-October as well as random patterns in the remaining months. The temporal trend of mean rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province showed no statistically significant trend at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales. However, at each station, 1 out of 25 stations exhibited a statistically significant trend at the annual scale; 4 stations located around the Pearl River Delta presented significant trends in summer at the seasonal scale; significant trends were observed in March (increasing

  3. Asian primate species richness correlates with rainfall. (United States)

    Wang, Yi-Chen; Srivathsan, Amrita; Feng, Chen-Chieh; Salim, Agus; Shekelle, Myron


    Previous studies of meta-analyses found significantly positive correlations between primate species richness and rainfall for Africa, Madagascar and the Neotropics, with the exception of Asia, leaving the open question whether that anomaly is the result of sampling bias, biogeography, or some other factor. This study re-examines the question using modelled data, with primate species richness data from the Southeast Asian Mammals Databank and rainfall data from the Climatic Research Unit. Data processing with Geographical Information Systems resulted in 390 sample points. Reduced major axis and ordinary least squares regressions were employed to examine the relationship for six regions, including the whole study area of Southeast Asia, and the subareas of Huxley West, Huxley East, Mainland Southeast Asia, Borneo, and Sumatra. The results showed a significant positive relationship between primate species richness and mean annual rainfall for Southeast Asia (r = 0.26, Pcorrelation (r = 0.58; Pspecies richness is positively associated with mean annual rainfall in Southeast Asia. Our findings contrast to prior studies of meta-analyses that showed no relationship between rainfall and primate species richness in Asia, and thereby bring Asia into agreement with results showing significant positive correlations between rainfall and primate species richness everywhere else in the world. The inference is that previous anomalous results for Asia were result of sampling bias in the meta-analysis.

  4. What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa? (United States)

    Guan, Kaiyu; Sultan, Benjamin; Biasutti, Michela; Baron, Christian; Lobell, David B.


    How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity, the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intraseasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500 mm/yr) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa.

  5. The added value of stochastic spatial disaggregation for short-term rainfall forecasts currently available in Canada (United States)

    Gagnon, Patrick; Rousseau, Alain N.; Charron, Dominique; Fortin, Vincent; Audet, René


    Several businesses and industries rely on rainfall forecasts to support their day-to-day operations. To deal with the uncertainty associated with rainfall forecast, some meteorological organisations have developed products, such as ensemble forecasts. However, due to the intensive computational requirements of ensemble forecasts, the spatial resolution remains coarse. For example, Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) data is freely available on a 1-degree grid (about 100 km), while those of the so-called High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) are available on a 2.5-km grid (about 40 times finer). Potential users are then left with the option of using either a high-resolution rainfall forecast without uncertainty estimation and/or an ensemble with a spectrum of plausible rainfall values, but at a coarser spatial scale. The objective of this study was to evaluate the added value of coupling the Gibbs Sampling Disaggregation Model (GSDM) with ECCC products to provide accurate, precise and consistent rainfall estimates at a fine spatial resolution (10-km) within a forecast framework (6-h). For 30, 6-h, rainfall events occurring within a 40,000-km2 area (Québec, Canada), results show that, using 100-km aggregated reference rainfall depths as input, statistics of the rainfall fields generated by GSDM were close to those of the 10-km reference field. However, in forecast mode, GSDM outcomes inherit of the ECCC forecast biases, resulting in a poor performance when GEPS data were used as input, mainly due to the inherent rainfall depth distribution of the latter product. Better performance was achieved when the Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS), available on a 10-km grid and aggregated at 100-km, was used as input to GSDM. Nevertheless, most of the analyzed ensemble forecasts were weakly consistent. Some areas of improvement are identified herein.

  6. Local influence of south-east France topography and land cover on the distribution and characteristics of intense rainfall cells (United States)

    Renard, Florent


    The Greater Lyon area is strongly built up, grouping 58 communes and a population of 1.3 million in approximately 500 km2. The flood risk is high as the territory is crossed by two large watercourses and by streams with torrential flow. Floods may also occur in case of runoff after heavy rain or because of a rise in the groundwater level. The whole territory can therefore be affected, and it is necessary to possess in-depth knowledge of the depths, causes and consequences of rainfall to achieve better management of precipitation in urban areas and to reduce flood risk. This study is thus focused on the effects of topography and land cover on the occurrence, intensity and area of intense rainfall cells. They are identified by local radar meteorology (C-band) combined with a processing algorithm running in a geographic information system (GIS) which identified 109,979 weighted mean centres of them in a sample composed of the five most intense rainfall events from 2001 to 2005. First, analysis of spatial distribution at an overall scale is performed, completed by study at a more detailed scale. The results show that the distribution of high-intensity rainfall cells is spread in cluster form. Subsequently, comparison of intense rainfall cells with the topography shows that cell density is closely linked with land slope but that, above all, urbanised zones feature nearly twice as many rainfall cells as farm land or forest, with more intense intensity.

  7. Evaluating rainfall errors in global climate models through cloud regimes (United States)

    Tan, Jackson; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Jakob, Christian; Jin, Daeho


    Global climate models suffer from a persistent shortcoming in their simulation of rainfall by producing too much drizzle and too little intense rain. This erroneous distribution of rainfall is a result of deficiencies in the representation of underlying processes of rainfall formation. In the real world, clouds are precursors to rainfall and the distribution of clouds is intimately linked to the rainfall over the area. This study examines the model representation of tropical rainfall using the cloud regime concept. In observations, these cloud regimes are derived from cluster analysis of joint-histograms of cloud properties retrieved from passive satellite measurements. With the implementation of satellite simulators, comparable cloud regimes can be defined in models. This enables us to contrast the rainfall distributions of cloud regimes in 11 CMIP5 models to observations and decompose the rainfall errors by cloud regimes. Many models underestimate the rainfall from the organized convective cloud regime, which in observation provides half of the total rain in the tropics. Furthermore, these rainfall errors are relatively independent of the model's accuracy in representing this cloud regime. Error decomposition reveals that the biases are compensated in some models by a more frequent occurrence of the cloud regime and most models exhibit substantial cancellation of rainfall errors from different regimes and regions. Therefore, underlying relatively accurate total rainfall in models are significant cancellation of rainfall errors from different cloud types and regions. The fact that a good representation of clouds does not lead to appreciable improvement in rainfall suggests a certain disconnect in the cloud-precipitation processes of global climate models.

  8. Microwave links for rainfall estimation in urban environment: insights from an experimental setup in Luxembourg city

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fenicia, F.; Pfister, L.; Kavetski, D.; Matgen, P.; Iffly, J.F.; Hoffman, L.; Uijlenhoet, R.


    Although the theoretical aspects of rainfall monitoring through microwave links are quite well established, only few practical applications have evaluated this technique in an operational setting. Microwave links are of particular interest in urban areas, where high frequency measurements are needed

  9. Instrumental record of debris flow initiation during natural rainfall: Implications for modeling slope stability (United States)

    David R. Montgomery; Kevin M. Schmidt; William E. Dietrich; Jim. McKean


    The middle of a hillslope hollow in the Oregon Coast Range failed and mobilized as a debris flow during heavy rainfall in November 1996. Automated pressure transducers recorded high spatial variability of pore water pressure within the area that mobilized as a debris flow, which initiated where local upward flow from bedrock developed into overlying colluvium....

  10. Constraining frequency–magnitude–area relationships for rainfall and flood discharges using radar-derived precipitation estimates: example applications in the Upper and Lower Colorado River basins, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. A. Orem


    Full Text Available Flood-envelope curves (FECs are useful for constraining the upper limit of possible flood discharges within drainage basins in a particular hydroclimatic region. Their usefulness, however, is limited by their lack of a well-defined recurrence interval. In this study we use radar-derived precipitation estimates to develop an alternative to the FEC method, i.e., the frequency–magnitude–area-curve (FMAC method that incorporates recurrence intervals. The FMAC method is demonstrated in two well-studied US drainage basins, i.e., the Upper and Lower Colorado River basins (UCRB and LCRB, respectively, using Stage III Next-Generation-Radar (NEXRAD gridded products and the diffusion-wave flow-routing algorithm. The FMAC method can be applied worldwide using any radar-derived precipitation estimates. In the FMAC method, idealized basins of similar contributing area are grouped together for frequency–magnitude analysis of precipitation intensity. These data are then routed through the idealized drainage basins of different contributing areas, using contributing-area-specific estimates for channel slope and channel width. Our results show that FMACs of precipitation discharge are power-law functions of contributing area with an average exponent of 0.82 ± 0.06 for recurrence intervals from 10 to 500 years. We compare our FMACs to published FECs and find that for wet antecedent-moisture conditions, the 500-year FMAC of flood discharge in the UCRB is on par with the US FEC for contributing areas of  ∼ 102 to 103 km2. FMACs of flood discharge for the LCRB exceed the published FEC for the LCRB for contributing areas in the range of  ∼ 103 to 104 km2. The FMAC method retains the power of the FEC method for constraining flood hazards in basins that are ungauged or have short flood records, yet it has the added advantage that it includes recurrence-interval information necessary for estimating event probabilities.

  11. Spatiotemporal Scaling Effect on Rainfall Network Design Using Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiang Wei


    Full Text Available Because of high variation in mountainous areas, rainfall data at different spatiotemporal scales may yield potential uncertainty for network design. However, few studies focus on the scaling effect on both the spatial and the temporal scale. By calculating the maximum joint entropy of hourly typhoon events, monthly, six dry and wet months and annual rainfall between 1992 and 2012 for 1-, 3-, and 5-km grids, the relocated candidate rain gauges in the National Taiwan University Experimental Forest of Central Taiwan are prioritized. The results show: (1 the network exhibits different locations for first prioritized candidate rain gauges for different spatiotemporal scales; (2 the effect of spatial scales is insignificant compared to temporal scales; and (3 a smaller number and a lower percentage of required stations (PRS reach stable joint entropy for a long duration at finer spatial scale. Prioritized candidate rain gauges provide key reference points for adjusting the network to capture more accurate information and minimize redundancy.

  12. Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ballabio, C; Meusburger, K; Klik, A


    Rainfall erosivity as a dynamic factor of soil loss by water erosion is modelled intra-annually for the first time at European scale. The development of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and its 2015 update with the extension to monthly component allowed to develop monthly...... events. Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year....... to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive...

  13. Wavy channel transistor for area efficient high performance operation

    KAUST Repository

    Fahad, Hossain M.


    We report a wavy channel FinFET like transistor where the channel is wavy to increase its width without any area penalty and thereby increasing its drive current. Through simulation and experiments, we show the effectiveness of such device architecture is capable of high performance operation compared to conventional FinFETs with comparatively higher area efficiency and lower chip latency as well as lower power consumption.

  14. Tear Break-up Time in High Altitude Areas. (United States)

    Jha, K N


    In high altitude areas, patients report with irritation, redness and foreign body sensation in their eyes suggesting tear film abnormality due to low humidity and windy environmental conditions. Tear Break- up Time (TBUT) was studied in 100 subjects consisting of local population and those originally from plains residing in high altitude areas in Ladakh. There were 24% individuals with TBUT of 10 seconds. In symptomatic patients with TBUT of <5 seconds, eight cases had irritation of eyes, six foreign body sensation and two cases had pain, watering, irritation and redness of eyes. Pterygium was seen in 12 individuals and inter palpebral congestion in 4 cases. A total of 24% cases showed abnormal (<5 seconds) TBUT. Abnormality of tear film in the presence of low humidity and windy condition with high ultraviolet radiation may lead to ocular discomfort and pterygium in these areas.

  15. Potential Analysis of Rainfall-induced Sediment Disaster (United States)

    Chen, Jing-Wen; Chen, Yie-Ruey; Hsieh, Shun-Chieh; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chue, Yung-Sheng


    Most of the mountain regions in Taiwan are sedimentary and metamorphic rocks which are fragile and highly weathered. Severe erosion occurs due to intensive rainfall and rapid flow, the erosion is even worsen by frequent earthquakes and severely affects the stability of hillsides. Rivers are short and steep in Taiwan with large runoff differences in wet and dry seasons. Discharges respond rapidly with rainfall intensity and flood flows usually carry large amount of sediment. Because of the highly growth in economics and social change, the development in the slope land is inevitable in Taiwan. However, sediment disasters occur frequently in high and precipitous region during typhoon. To make the execution of the regulation of slope land development more efficiency, construction of evaluation model for sediment potential is very important. In this study, the Genetic Adaptive Neural Network (GANN) was implemented in texture analysis techniques for the classification of satellite images of research region before and after typhoon or extreme rainfall and to obtain surface information and hazard log data. By using GANN weight analysis, factors, levels and probabilities of disaster of the research areas are presented. Then, through geographic information system the disaster potential map is plotted to distinguish high potential regions from low potential regions. Finally, the evaluation processes for sediment disaster after rainfall due to slope land use are established. In this research, the automatic image classification and evaluation modules for sediment disaster after rainfall due to slope land disturbance and natural environment are established in MATLAB to avoid complexity and time of computation. After implementation of texture analysis techniques, the results show that the values of overall accuracy and coefficient of agreement of the time-saving image classification for different time periods are at intermediate-high level and above. The results of GANN show that

  16. Spatial moments of catchment rainfall: rainfall spatial organisation, basin morphology, and flood response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Zoccatelli


    Full Text Available This paper describes a set of spatial rainfall statistics (termed "spatial moments of catchment rainfall" quantifying the dependence existing between spatial rainfall organisation, basin morphology and runoff response. These statistics describe the spatial rainfall organisation in terms of concentration and dispersion statistics as a function of the distance measured along the flow routing coordinate. The introduction of these statistics permits derivation of a simple relationship for the quantification of catchment-scale storm velocity. The concept of the catchment-scale storm velocity takes into account the role of relative catchment orientation and morphology with respect to storm motion and kinematics. The paper illustrates the derivation of the statistics from an analytical framework recently proposed in literature and explains the conceptual meaning of the statistics by applying them to five extreme flash floods occurred in various European regions in the period 2002–2007. High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are employed to examine how effective are these statistics in describing the degree of spatial rainfall organisation which is important for runoff modelling. This is obtained by quantifying the effects of neglecting the spatial rainfall variability on flood modelling, with a focus on runoff timing. The size of the study catchments ranges between 36 to 982 km2. The analysis reported here shows that the spatial moments of catchment rainfall can be effectively employed to isolate and describe the features of rainfall spatial organization which have significant impact on runoff simulation. These statistics provide useful information on what space-time scales rainfall has to be monitored, given certain catchment and flood characteristics, and what are the effects of space-time aggregation on flood response modeling.

  17. Relationship between rainfall and shallow landslides in the southern Apuan Alps (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Giannecchini


    Full Text Available The Apuan Alps region is one of the rainiest areas in Italy (more than 3000 mm/year, in which frequently heavy and concentrated rainfall occurs. This is particularly due to its geographical position and conformation: the Apuan chain is located along the northern Tuscan coast, close to the Ligurian Sea, and the main peaks reach almost 2000 m. In several cases, the storms that hit the area have triggered many shallow landslides (soil slip-debris flows, which exposed the population to serious risks (during the 19 June 1996 rainstorm about 1000 landslides were triggered and 14 people died. The assessment of the rainfall thresholds is very important in order to prepare efficient alarm systems in a region particularly dedicated to tourism and marble activities. With the aim of contributing to the landslide hazard evaluation of the southern Apuan Alps territory (upper Versilia area, a detailed analysis of the main pluviometric events was carried out. The data recorded at the main rain gauge of the area from 1975 to 2002 were analysed and compared with the occurrence of soil slips, in order to examine the relationship between soil slip initiation and rainfall. The most important rainstorms which triggered shallow landslides occurred in 1984, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998 and 2000. Many attempts were made to obtain a possible correlation between rainfall parameters and the occurrence of soil slip phenomena and to identify the local rainfall threshold for triggering shallow landslides. A threshold for soil slip activity in terms of mean intensity, duration and mean annual precipitation (MAP was defined for the study area. The thresholds obtained for the southern Apuan Alps were also compared with those proposed by other authors for several regions in the world. This emphasized the high value of the rain threshold for shallow landslide activity in the Apuan area. The high threshold is probably also linked to the high mean annual precipitation and to the high

  18. Rainfall Stochastic models (United States)

    Campo, M. A.; Lopez, J. J.; Rebole, J. P.


    This work was carried out in north of Spain. San Sebastian A meteorological station, where there are available precipitation records every ten minutes was selected. Precipitation data covers from October of 1927 to September of 1997. Pulse models describe the temporal process of rainfall as a succession of rainy cells, main storm, whose origins are distributed in time according to a Poisson process and a secondary process that generates a random number of cells of rain within each storm. Among different pulse models, the Bartlett-Lewis was used. On the other hand, alternative renewal processes and Markov chains describe the way in which the process will evolve in the future depending only on the current state. Therefore they are nor dependant on past events. Two basic processes are considered when describing the occurrence of rain: the alternation of wet and dry periods and temporal distribution of rainfall in each rain event, which determines the rainwater collected in each of the intervals that make up the rain. This allows the introduction of alternative renewal processes and Markov chains of three states, where interstorm time is given by either of the two dry states, short or long. Thus, the stochastic model of Markov chains tries to reproduce the basis of pulse models: the succession of storms, each one composed for a series of rain, separated by a short interval of time without theoretical complexity of these. In a first step, we analyzed all variables involved in the sequential process of the rain: rain event duration, event duration of non-rain, average rainfall intensity in rain events, and finally, temporal distribution of rainfall within the rain event. Additionally, for pulse Bartlett-Lewis model calibration, main descriptive statistics were calculated for each month, considering the process of seasonal rainfall in each month. In a second step, both models were calibrated. Finally, synthetic series were simulated with calibration parameters; series

  19. First-Year Evaluation of GPM-Rainfall over the Netherlands: IMERG Day 1 Final Run (V03D) (United States)

    Weerts, A.; Rios Gaona, M. F.; Overeem, A.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.


    The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is the successor to the rainfall satellite mission TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) which orbited Earth for 17 years. With its core observatory launched on February 27, 2014, GPM offers global precipitation estimates between 60°N to 60°S at 0.1° x 0.1° resolution every 30 min. Conversely to the TRMM era, now the Netherlands is within the coverage provided by GPM. Here we assess the first year of GPM rainfall retrievals from the half-hourly gridded product IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM) Day 1 Final Run (V03D). This product is compared against gauge-adjusted radar rainfall maps over the land surface of the Netherlands at half-hourly, daily, monthly, and yearly scales. These radar rainfall maps are considered to be ground truth. The evaluation of the first year of IMERG operations is done through time series, scatter plots, empirical exceedance probabilities and various statistical indicators. In general, there is a tendency of IMERG to slightly underestimate (2%) country-wide rainfall depths. Nevertheless, the relative underestimation is small enough to propose IMERG as a reliable source of precipitation data, especially for areas where rain gauge networks or ground-based radars do not offer this type of high-resolution data and availability. The potential of GPM for rainfall estimation in a mid-latitude country is confirmed.

  20. Large area high-speed metrology SPM system (United States)

    Klapetek, P.; Valtr, M.; Picco, L.; Payton, O. D.; Martinek, J.; Yacoot, A.; Miles, M.


    We present a large area high-speed measuring system capable of rapidly generating nanometre resolution scanning probe microscopy data over mm2 regions. The system combines a slow moving but accurate large area XYZ scanner with a very fast but less accurate small area XY scanner. This arrangement enables very large areas to be scanned by stitching together the small, rapidly acquired, images from the fast XY scanner while simultaneously moving the slow XYZ scanner across the region of interest. In order to successfully merge the image sequences together two software approaches for calibrating the data from the fast scanner are described. The first utilizes the low uncertainty interferometric sensors of the XYZ scanner while the second implements a genetic algorithm with multiple parameter fitting during the data merging step of the image stitching process. The basic uncertainty components related to these high-speed measurements are also discussed. Both techniques are shown to successfully enable high-resolution, large area images to be generated at least an order of magnitude faster than with a conventional atomic force microscope.

  1. Hydrological assessment of TRMM rainfall data over Yangtze River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang-he Gu


    Full Text Available High-quality rainfall information is critical for accurate simulation of runoff and water cycle processes on the land surface. In situ monitoring of rainfall has a very limited utility at the regional and global scale because of the high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. As a step toward overcoming this problem, microwave remote sensing observations can be used to retrieve the temporal and spatial rainfall coverage because of their global availability and frequency of measurement. This paper addresses the question of whether remote sensing rainfall estimates over a catchment can be used for water balance computations in the distributed hydrological model. The TRMM 3B42V6 rainfall product was introduced into the hydrological cycle simulation of the Yangtze River Basin in South China. A tool was developed to interpolate the rain gauge observations at the same temporal and spatial resolution as the TRMM data and then evaluate the precision of TRMM 3B42V6 data from 1998 to 2006. It shows that the TRMM 3B42V6 rainfall product was reliable and had good precision in application to the Yangtze River Basin. The TRMM 3B42V6 data slightly overestimated rainfall during the wet season and underestimated rainfall during the dry season in the Yangtze River Basin. Results suggest that the TRMM 3B42V6 rainfall product can be used as an alternative data source for large-scale distributed hydrological models.

  2. Pattern-oriented memory interpolation of sparse historical rainfall records (United States)

    Matos, J. P.; Cohen Liechti, T.; Portela, M. M.; Schleiss, A. J.


    The pattern-oriented memory (POM) is a novel historical rainfall interpolation method that explicitly takes into account the time dimension in order to interpolate areal rainfall maps. The method is based on the idea that rainfall patterns exist and can be identified over a certain area by means of non-linear regressions. Having been previously benchmarked with a vast array of interpolation methods using proxy satellite data under different time and space availabilities, in the scope of the present contribution POM is applied to rain gauge data in order to produce areal rainfall maps. Tested over the Zambezi River Basin for the period from 1979 to 1997 (accurate satellite rainfall estimates based on spaceborne instruments are not available for dates prior to 1998), the novel pattern-oriented memory historical interpolation method has revealed itself as a better alternative than Kriging or Inverse Distance Weighing in the light of a Monte Carlo cross-validation procedure. Superior in most metrics to the other tested interpolation methods, in terms of the Pearson correlation coefficient and bias the accuracy of POM's historical interpolation results are even comparable with that of recent satellite rainfall products. The new method holds the possibility of calculating detailed and performing daily areal rainfall estimates, even in the case of sparse rain gauging grids. Besides their performance, the similarity to satellite rainfall estimates inherent to POM interpolations can contribute to substantially extend the length of the rainfall series used in hydrological models and water availability studies in remote areas.

  3. Landslide hazard mapping considering rainfall probability in Inje, Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.J. Lee


    Full Text Available This study evaluated the landslide hazard at Inje, Korea, using a geographic information system (GIS and rainfall probabilistic data. The locations of landslides were identified in the study area by aerial photograph interpretation and field surveys. Data about rainfall probability, topography, and geology were collected, processed, and compiled in a spatial database using GIS. Then, the probability of landslides in the study area in recurrence interval years in the future was calculated assuming that landslides are triggered by a daily rainfall of 202 mm or a three-day cumulative rainfall of 449 mm. Twelve factors that influence landslide occurrence were chosen from a database of topography, soil, and forest cover. Landslide susceptibilities were analysed and mapped according to these landslide-occurrence factors, employing the frequency ratio method. Of the total landslide locations, 50% were used for hazard analysis and the remaining 50% were used for model validation. Validation results for the daily rainfall of 202 mm and three-day cumulative rainfall of 449 mm for recurrence interval years were from 89.22% to 91.80% and from 89.38% to 93.80%, respectively. This analysis of landslide hazards took rainfall probability into account. Rainfall, including heavy rainfall, is expected to increase in the future.

  4. Seasonal prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over cluster ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Shared nearest neighbour (SNN) cluster algorithm has been applied to seasonal (June–September) rainfall departures over 30 sub-divisions of India to identify the contiguous homogeneous cluster regions over India. Five cluster regions are identified. Rainfall departure series for these cluster regions are prepared by area ...

  5. Urban Run-off Volumes Dependency on Rainfall Measurement Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, L.; Jensen, N. E.; Rasmussen, Michael R.


    Urban run-off is characterized with fast response since the large surface run-off in the catchments responds immediately to variations in the rainfall. Modeling such type of catchments is most often done with the input from very few rain gauges, but the large variation in rainfall over small area...

  6. modelling relationship between rainfall variability and yields in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    yield models should be used for planning and forecasting the yield of millet and sorghum in the study area. Key words: modelling, rainfall, yields, millet, sorghum. INTRODUCTION. Meteorological variables, such as rainfall parameters, temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity, and wind velocity and soil moisture are.

  7. Simulation of Rainfall Variability Over West Africa (United States)

    Bader, J.; Latif, M.

    The impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and vegetation on precipitation over West Africa is investigated with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4.x/T42. Ensemble experiments -driven with observed SST- show that At- lantic SST has a significant influence on JJA precipitation over West Africa. Four- teen experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced or decreased by one Kelvin in certain ocean areas. Changing SST in the eastern tropi- cal Atlantic only caused significant changes along the Guinea Coast, with a positive SSTA increasing rainfall and a negative reducing it. The response was nearly linear. Changing SST in other ocean areas caused significant changes over West Africa, es- pecially in the Sahel area. The response is found to be non linear, with only negative SSTA leading to significant reduction in Sahel rainfall. Also, the impact of the SSTAs from the different ocean regions was not additive with respect to the rainfall. Four simulations with a coupled model (the simple dynamic vegetation model (SVege) and the ECHAM4-AGCM were coupled) were also performed, driven with observed SST from 1945 to 1998. The standard ECHAM-AGCM -forced by the same observed SST- was able to reproduce the drying trend from the fifties to the mid-eighties in the Sahel, but failed to mirror the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies. The coupled model was not only able to reproduce this drying trend, but was also able to better reproduce the amplitudes of the rainfall anomalies. The dynamic vegetation acted like an amplifier, increasing the SST induced rainfall anomalies.

  8. Performance assessment of three convective parameterization schemes in WRF for downscaling summer rainfall over South Africa (United States)

    Ratna, Satyaban B.; Ratnam, J. V.; Behera, S. K.; Rautenbach, C. J. deW.; Ndarana, T.; Takahashi, K.; Yamagata, T.


    Austral summer rainfall over the period 1991/1992 to 2010/2011 was dynamically downscaled by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model at 9 km resolution for South Africa. Lateral boundary conditions for WRF were provided from the European Centre for medium-range weather (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA) interim data. The model biases for the rainfall were evaluated over the South Africa as a whole and its nine provinces separately by employing three different convective parameterization schemes, namely the (1) Kain-Fritsch (KF), (2) Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) and (3) Grell-Devenyi ensemble (GDE) schemes. All three schemes have generated positive rainfall biases over South Africa, with the KF scheme producing the largest biases and mean absolute errors. Only the BMJ scheme could reproduce the intensity of rainfall anomalies, and also exhibited the highest correlation with observed interannual summer rainfall variability. In the KF scheme, a significantly high amount of moisture was transported from the tropics into South Africa. The vertical thermodynamic profiles show that the KF scheme has caused low level moisture convergence, due to the highly unstable atmosphere, and hence contributed to the widespread positive biases of rainfall. The negative bias in moisture, along with a stable atmosphere and negative biases of vertical velocity simulated by the GDE scheme resulted in negative rainfall biases, especially over the Limpopo Province. In terms of rain rate, the KF scheme generated the lowest number of low rain rates and the maximum number of moderate to high rain rates associated with more convective unstable environment. KF and GDE schemes overestimated the convective rain and underestimated the stratiform rain. However, the simulated convective and stratiform rain with BMJ scheme is in more agreement with the observations. This study also documents the performance of regional model in downscaling the large scale climate mode such as El Niño Southern Oscillation

  9. Genetic differentiation of populations residing in areas of high ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... Public Lectures · Lecture Workshops · Refresher Courses · Symposia. Home; Journals; Journal of Genetics; Volume 88; Issue 1. Genetic differentiation of populations residing in areas of high malaria endemicity in India. Swapnil Sinha Vandana Arya Sarita Agarwal Indian Genome Variation Consortium Saman Habib.

  10. Improving the understanding of rainfall distribution and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Oct 4, 2016 ... Rainfall interpolation using data from a limited number of rain-gauges is one method that hydrologists use to derive the spatial distribution of precipitation in mountainous areas. (Groisman et al., 2005, Masson and Frei, 2014, Vogel et al.,. 2012, Duethmann et al., 2013, Jacquin and Soto-Sandoval,. 2013).

  11. Mangrove rehabilitation in high erosion areas: Assessment using bioindicators (United States)

    Thornton, Stephen Ryan; Johnstone, Ron William


    This study identifies a potentially effective rehabilitation technique for implementation in high erosion areas through the use of bioindicators. This is significant given that one third of mangroves have been cleared globally with clearing continuing at a rate of 1-2% per annum. There have been various attempts to rehabilitate degraded mangrove forests, however the success or failure of these is mostly unclear due to a lack of assessment. The two rehabilitation techniques assessed in this study were a basic fence system and another more elaborate fence technique designed by the Kien Giang Biosphere Reserve Project (KGBRP), Vietnam. The assessment was conducted by comparing vegetation and faunal communities in rehabilitation areas to those in adjacent old-growth areas. The indicators included: tree and understory plant diversity and density; forest cover and the density of crabs, mudskippers and gastropods. The results show the KGBRP rehabilitation fence technique delivered tree diversity, plant diversity, tree density and forest cover that most closely resembled old-growth areas. This suggests that the additional protection provided by the KGBRP fence was instrumental in achieving these results. In terms of total mudskipper, Boleophthalmus spp., Periophthalmodon spp. and ocypodid crab density, the KGBRP rehabilitation was most similar to the old-growth areas. This similarity is thought to be related to the comparable forest cover at these sites. The density of large crab holes was much higher in old-growth areas than in basic or KGBRP rehabilitation areas. The disparity between large crab hole density at KGBRP rehabilitation and old-growth areas, despite similar levels of forest cover, is thought to be linked to the immaturity of the KGBRP rehabilitation sites. As the KGBRP rehabilitation is most similar in terms of vegetation and faunal communities to the old-growth areas, it appears to be the most successful rehabilitation.

  12. Nitrate Accumulation and Leaching in Surface and Ground Water Based on Simulated Rainfall Experiments


    Hong Wang; Jian-en Gao; Xing-hua Li; Shao-long Zhang; Hong-jie Wang


    To evaluate the process of nitrate accumulation and leaching in surface and ground water, we conducted simulated rainfall experiments. The experiments were performed in areas of 5.3 m2 with bare slopes of 3° that were treated with two nitrogen fertilizer inputs, high (22.5 g/m2 NH4NO3) and control (no fertilizer), and subjected to 2 hours of rainfall, with. From the 1st to the 7th experiments, the same content of fertilizer mixed with soil was uniformly applied to the soil surface at 10 minut...

  13. Synoptic analysis of heavy rainfall events over the Mumbai Region (United States)

    Roth, G.; Lomazzi, M.; Entekhabi, D.; Pinto, J.; Rudari, R.


    Over the Indian Subcontinent, almost 75% of the annual precipitation is expected to fall during the South Asia Monsoon (SAM) season, conventionally defined between June 1 and September 30. While precipitation patterns show a very strong spatial heterogeneity, the maximum annual values, mainly associated with orographic forcing, occur in the Western Coast of the Indian Peninsula. This is a relatively narrow strip (width generally lower than 100 km) bounded to the West by the North Indian Ocean and to the East by the Western Ghats mountain range. The interaction between SAM rainfall events and relatively short and steep rivers makes this area particularly prone to flash floods. As a consequence, great damages are produced both in terms of life and economic losses. This work aims at identifying large-scale SAM meteorological patterns associated with the triggering of extreme rainfall events affecting the Mumbai region (approximately 18-20°N, 72.5-73.5°E), an area of great economic importance for India and a very highly populated one (around 20 million people). To this aim, seventy years of daily rainfall data are analyzed and compared to a database of damage-causing precipitations. Event days are selected with a twin-threshold function related to daily rainfall height and soil moisture content. To detect typical large-scale features, event days are compared to non-event days by analyzing MSLP, SST, and vertical wind profiles. Further, the storm-related processes are analyzed with moisture sources (via backtracing) and moisture flux convergence fields. First results on selected event days show that they are typically characterized by remote moisture sources (from S-W Arabian Sea) and increased lower level westerly winds which cause enhanced moisture flux convergence, leading to precipitable water’s enhancement.

  14. Comparing Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Landslides and Rainfall, Using Remote Sensing (United States)

    MacLeod, A. J.; Roering, J.; Yuter, S.


    Although many non-climate factors contribute to slope instability, the intensity and duration of rainfall has been strongly linked to the initiation of shallow, rapidly moving landslides. Our primary focus is to characterize the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall during an intense storm, using ground-based radar, for comparison with the distribution of associated landslides. Unlike rain gauges (which are sparsely distributed), radar can provide meteorological data of a high spatial and temporal resolution, giving information on the location, size, and intensity, and duration of storms cells. NEXRAD radar data represents the reflectivity of raindrops (and thus intensity of rainfall) in a storm, and is produced every six minutes. During February 6th-9th, 1996, a 100-year storm occurred in Oregon and Washington, generating 140 to 180% the average seasonal rainfall, in some areas spawning thousands of landslides. Our study site in the Tillamook State Forest is a steep and highly dissected landscape near the Oregon Coast, with a variety of forest stand ages. Mapped from a 1996 aerial photo set, landslides in different forest stand ages appear clustered, despite the general uniformity of other landscape characteristics, suggesting that systematic variations in rainfall intensity may be the primary factor controlling landslide distribution. At a distance of about 60 km from the Portland NEXRAD station, the region is sufficiently close as to minimize most topographic and resolution issues that can affect radar accuracy. We processed Level II NEXRAD data at 1 km2 spatial resolution, and compared it with landslide location and properties. Preliminary results indicate that areas with high radar reflectivity (a proxy for storm intensity) correlate with the pattern of landsliding. Additional factors such as slope, topographic geometry, land use, stand age, geology, and soil properties are simultaneously considered as slope stability factors. Ground-based radar is a

  15. Numerical representation of rainfall field in the Yarmouk River Basin (United States)

    Shentsis, Isabella; Inbar, Nimrod; Magri, Fabien; Rosenthal, Eliyahu


    Rainfall is the decisive factors in evaluating the water balance of river basins and aquifers. Accepted methods rely on interpolation and extrapolation of gauged rain to regular grid with high dependence on the density and regularity of network, considering the relief complexity. We propose an alternative method that makes up to those restrictions by taking into account additional physical features of the rain field. The method applies to areas with (i) complex plain- and mountainous topography, which means inhomogeneity of the rainfall field and (ii) non-uniform distribution of a rain gauge network with partial lack of observations. The rain model is implemented in two steps: 1. Study of the rainfall field, based on the climatic data (mean annual precipitation), its description by the function of elevation and other factors, and estimation of model parameters (normalized coefficients of the Taylor series); 2. Estimation of rainfall in each historical year using the available data (less complete and irregular versus climatic data) as well as the a-priori known parameters (by the basic hypothesis on inter-annual stability of the model parameters). The proposed method was developed by Shentsis (1990) for hydrological forecasting in Central Asia and was later adapted to the Lake Kinneret Basin. Here this model (the first step) is applied to the Yarmouk River Basin. The Yarmouk River is the largest tributary of the Jordan River. Its transboundary basin (6,833 sq. km) extends over Syria (5,257, Jordan (1,379 sq. km) and Israel (197 sq. km). Altitude varies from 1800 m (and more) to -235 m asl. The total number of rain stations in use is 36 (17 in Syria, 19 in Jordan). There is evidently lack and non-uniform distribution of a rain gauge network in Syria. The Yarmouk Basin was divided into five regions considering typical relationship between mean annual rain and elevation for each region. Generally, the borders of regions correspond to the common topographic

  16. Rainfall variability and seasonality in northern Bangladesh (United States)

    Bari, Sheikh Hefzul; Hussain, Md. Manjurul; Husna, Noor-E.-Ashmaul


    This paper aimed at the analysis of rainfall seasonality and variability for the northern part of South-Asian country, Bangladesh. The coefficient of variability was used to determine the variability of rainfall. While rainfall seasonality index ( SI ) and mean individual seasonality index ( \\overline{SI_i} ) were used to identify seasonal contrast. We also applied Mann-Kendall trend test and sequential Mann-Kendall test to determine the trend in seasonality. The lowest variability was found for monsoon among the four seasons whereas winter has the highest variability. Observed variability has a decreasing tendency from the northwest region towards the northeast region. The mean individual seasonality index (0.815378 to 0.977228) indicates that rainfall in Bangladesh is "markedly seasonal with a long dry season." It was found that the length of the dry period is lower at the northeastern part of northern Bangladesh. Trend analysis results show no significant change in the seasonality of rainfall in this region. Regression analysis of \\overline{SI_i} and SI, and longitude and mean individual seasonality index show a significant linear correlation for this area.

  17. High surface area carbon and process for its production (United States)

    Romanos, Jimmy; Burress, Jacob; Pfeifer, Peter; Rash, Tyler; Shah, Parag; Suppes, Galen


    Activated carbon materials and methods of producing and using activated carbon materials are provided. In particular, biomass-derived activated carbon materials and processes of producing the activated carbon materials with prespecified surface areas and pore size distributions are provided. Activated carbon materials with preselected high specific surface areas, porosities, sub-nm (<1 nm) pore volumes, and supra-nm (1-5 nm) pore volumes may be achieved by controlling the degree of carbon consumption and metallic potassium intercalation into the carbon lattice during the activation process.

  18. How important is tropospheric humidity for coastal rainfall in the tropics?

    CERN Document Server

    Bergemann, Martin


    Recent research has community have shown that tropical convection and rainfall is sensitive to mid-tropospheric humidity. Therefore it has been suggested to improve the representation of moist convection by making cumulus parameterizations more sensitive to mid-tropospheric moisture. Climate models show considerable rainfall biases in coastal tropical areas, where approx. 33 % of the overall rainfall received is associated with coastal land-sea interaction. Building on an algorithm to objectively identify rainfall that is associated with land-sea interaction we investigate whether the relationship between rainfall in coastal regions and atmospheric humidity differs from that over the open ocean or over inland areas. We combine 3-hourly satellite estimates of rainfall with humidity estimates from reanalyses and investigate if coastal rainfall reveals the well known relationship between area-averaged precipitation and column integrated moisture. We find that rainfall that is associated with coastal land-sea eff...

  19. Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon onset-phase rainfall using a regional model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. V. Srinivas


    northeast, east and west coast areas, the ARW captured these regional features showing improvement upon NNRP reanalysis, which may be due to the high resolution (30 km employed. The onset-phase rainfall characteristics during the contrasting ISM of 2003 and 2009 are well simulated in terms of the variations in the strength of low-level jet (LLJ and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR.

  20. The Amazon forest-rainfall feedback: the roles of transpiration and interception (United States)

    Dekker, Stefan; Staal, Arie; Tuinenburg, Obbe


    In the Amazon, deep-rooted trees increase local transpiration and high tree cover increase local interception evaporation. These increased local evapotranspiration fluxes to the atmosphere have both positive effects on forests down-wind, as they stimulate rainfall. Although important for the functioning of the Amazon, we have an inadequate assessment on the strength and the timing of these forest-rainfall feedbacks. In this study we (i) estimate local forest transpiration and local interception evaporation, (ii) simulate the trajectories of these moisture flows through the atmosphere and (iii) quantify their contributions to the forest-rainfall feedback for the whole Amazon basin. To determine the atmospheric moisture flows in tropical South America we use a Lagrangian moisture tracking algorithm on 0.25° (c. 25 km) resolution with eight atmospheric layers on a monthly basis for the period 2003-2015. With our approach we account for multiple re-evaporation cycles of this moisture. We also calculate for each month the potential effects of forest loss on evapotranspiration. Combined, these calculations allow us to simulate the effects of land-cover changes on rainfall in downwind areas and estimate the effect on the forest. We found large regional and temporal differences in the importance how forest contribute to rainfall. The transpiration-rainfall feedback is highly important during the dry season. Between September-November, when large parts of the Amazon are at the end of the dry season, more than 50% of the rainfall is caused by the forests upstream. This means that droughts in the Amazon are alleviated by the forest. Furthermore, we found that much moisture cycles several times during its trajectory over the Amazon. After one evapotranspiration-rainfall cycle, more than 40% of the moisture is re-evaporated again. The interception-evaporation feedback is less important during droughts. Finally from our analysis, we show that the forest-rainfall feedback is

  1. Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon onset-phase rainfall using a regional model

    KAUST Repository

    Srinivas, C. V.


    west coast areas, the ARW captured these regional features showing improvement upon NNRP reanalysis, which may be due to the high resolution (30 km) employed. The onset-phase rainfall characteristics during the contrasting ISM of 2003 and 2009 are well simulated in terms of the variations in the strength of low-level jet (LLJ) and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR).

  2. High resolution forecast of heavy precipitation with Lokal Modell: analysis of two case studies in the Alpine area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Elementi


    Full Text Available Northern Italy is frequently affected by severe precipitation conditions often inducing flood events with associated loss of properties, damages and casualties. The capability of correctly forecast these events, strongly required for an efficient support to civil protection actions, is still nowadays a challenge. This difficulty is also related with the complex structure of the precipitation field in the Alpine area and, more generally, over the Italian territory. Recently a new generation of non-hydrostatic meteorological models, suitable to be used at very high spatial resolution, has been developed. In this paper the performance of the non-hydrostatic Lokal Modell developed by the COSMO Consortium, is analysed with regard to a couple of intense precipitation events occurred in the Piemonte region in Northern Italy. These events were selected among the reference cases of the Hydroptimet/INTERREG IIIB project. LM run at the operational resolution of 7km provides a good forecast of the general rain structure, with an unsatisfactory representation of the precipitation distribution across the mountain ranges. It is shown that the inclusion of the new prognostic equations for cloud ice, rain and snow produces a remarkable improvement, reducing the precipitation in the upwind side and extending the intense rainfall area to the downwind side. The unrealistic maxima are decreased towards observed values. The use of very high horizontal resolution (2.8 km improves the general shape of the precipitation field in the flat area of the Piemonte region but, keeping active the moist convection scheme, sparse and more intense rainfall peaks are produced. When convective precipitation is not parametrised but explicitly represented by the model, this negative effect is removed.

  3. Karst Aquifer in Qatar and its bearing on Natural Rainfall Recharge (United States)

    Baalousha, Husam; Ackerer, Philippe


    Qatar is an arid country with little rainfall and high evaporation. Surface water is non-existent so aquifer is the only source of natural water. The annual long-term averages of rainfall and evaporation are 80 mm and more than 2000 mm, respectively. Despite the low rainfall and high evaporation, natural recharge from rainfall occurs at an average of approximately 50 million m3 per year. Rainfall recharge in Qatar takes in land depressions that occur all over the country. These depressions are a result of land collapse due to sinkholes and cavity in the limestone formation. In the northern part of the country, karst features occur as a result of dissolution of limestone, which leads to land depressions. Results of this study shows groundwater recharge occurs in land depression areas, especially in the northern part of the country, where surface runoff accumulates in these land depressions and recharges the aquifer. This paper was made possible by NPRP grant # [NPRP 9-030-1-008] from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation). The findings achieved herein are solely the responsibility of the author[s]."

  4. Underwater Acoustic Measurements to Estimate Wind and Rainfall in the Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Pensieri


    Full Text Available Oceanic ambient noise measurements can be analyzed to obtain qualitative and quantitative information about wind and rainfall phenomena over the ocean filling the existing gap of reliable meteorological observations at sea. The Ligurian Sea Acoustic Experiment was designed to collect long-term synergistic observations from a passive acoustic recorder and surface sensors (i.e., buoy mounted rain gauge and anemometer and weather radar to support error analysis of rainfall rate and wind speed quantification techniques developed in past studies. The study period included combination of high and low wind and rainfall episodes and two storm events that caused two floods in the vicinity of La Spezia and in the city of Genoa in 2011. The availability of high resolution in situ meteorological data allows improving data processing technique to detect and especially to provide effective estimates of wind and rainfall at sea. Results show a very good correspondence between estimates provided by passive acoustic recorder algorithm and in situ observations for both rainfall and wind phenomena and demonstrate the potential of using measurements provided by passive acoustic instruments in open sea for early warning of approaching coastal storms, which for the Mediterranean coastal areas constitutes one of the main causes of recurrent floods.

  5. Systematic Evaluation of Satellite-Based Rainfall Products over the Brahmaputra Basin for Hydrological Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sagar Ratna Bajracharya


    Full Text Available Estimation of the flow generated in the Brahmaputra river basin is important for establishing an effective flood prediction and warning services as well as for water resources assessment and management. But this is a data scarce region with few and unevenly distributed hydrometeorological stations. Five high-resolution satellite rainfall products (CPC RFE2.0, RFE2.0-Modified, CMORPH, GSMaP, and TRMM 3B42 were evaluated at different spatial and temporal resolutions (daily, dekadal, monthly, and seasonal with observed rain gauge data from 2004 to 2006 to determine their ability to fill the data gap and suitability for use in hydrological and water resources management applications. Grid-to-grid (G-G and catchment-to-catchment (C-C comparisons were performed using the verification methods developed by the International Precipitation Working Group (IPWG. Comparing different products, RFE2.0-Modified, TRMM 3B42, and CMORPH performed best; they all detected heavy, moderate, and low rainfall but still significantly underestimated magnitude of rainfall, particularly in orographically influenced areas. Overall, RFE2.0-Modified performed best showing a high correlation coefficient with observed data and low mean absolute error, root mean square error, and multiple bias and is reasonably good at detecting the occurrence of rainfall. TRMM 3B42 showed the second best performance. The study demonstrates that there is a potential use of satellite rainfall in a data scarce region.

  6. High-capacity transport, floor area ratio and its relationship with urbanization of metropolitan areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carvalho da Costa, B.L. de; Carvalho da Costa, F.B. de


    Most of the world’s population lives in urban areas (54%). Near 42% of the global urban population live in cities with more than 1 million inhabitants, where problems associated with urban sprawl such as informal settlement, social-economic changes, environmental degradation and deficient high-capacity transport (HCT) systems are common. Meanwhile, urbanization and its associated transportation infrastructure define the relationship between city and countryside, between the city’s inner core and the periphery, between the citizen and his right to move. This article discusses and presents an overview about the relationship between the planning and extension of HCT systems and urban planning, (in the figure of the floor-area ratio - FAR- prescribed in regulations). The methodological approach consists of drawing a conceptual framework and studying 33 different cities of metropolitan areas on five continents. It’s noticed that areas in cities with a high construction potential but with an insufficient HCT negatively influence in urban mobility and hence the right to the city. We consider right to the city the various social and fundamental rights that, among others, includes the right to public transportation. Therefore there’s a real need of an integrated approach of community participation, FAR distribution, urban planning and transportation planning and so that urbanization, inevitable these days, takes place in a fair and harmonious way. (Author)

  7. Sources of Uncertainty in Rainfall Maps from Cellular Communication Networks (United States)

    Rios Gaona, Manuel Felipe; Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko


    Accurate measurements of rainfall are important in many hydrological applications, for instance, flash-flood early-warning systems, hydraulic structures design, agriculture, weather forecasting, and climate modelling. Rainfall intensities can be retrieved from (commercial) microwave link networks. Whenever possible, link networks measure and store the decrease in power of the electromagnetic signal at regular intervals. The decrease in power is largely due to the attenuation by raindrops along the link paths. Such an alternative technique fulfills the continuous strive for measurements of rainfall in time and space at higher resolutions, especially in places where traditional rain gauge networks are scarce or poorly maintained. Rainfall maps from microwave link networks have recently been introduced at country-wide scales. Despite their potential in rainfall estimation at high spatiotemporal resolutions, the uncertainties present in rainfall maps from link networks are not yet fully comprehended. The aim of this work is to identify and quantify the sources of uncertainty present in interpolated rainfall maps from link rainfall depths. In order to disentangle these sources of uncertainty, we classified them into two categories: (1) those associated with the individual microwave link measurements, i.e., the physics involved in the measurements such as wet antenna attenuation, sampling interval of measurements, wet/dry period classification, drop size distribution (DSD), and multi-path propagation; (2) those associated with mapping, i.e., the combined effect of the interpolation methodology, the spatial density of the network, and the availability of link measurements. We computed ~ 3500 rainfall maps from real and simulated link rainfall depths for 12 days for the land surface of The Netherlands. These rainfall maps were compared against quality-controlled gauge-adjusted radar rainfall fields (assumed to be the ground truth). Thus, we were able to not only identify

  8. Analysis of rainfall in the Brazilian semiarid (United States)

    Teixeira, Nivaldo; Vide, Javier; Nery, Jonas


    The Brazilian semiarid sub region is located in the Northeast and a small part of the territory of the Southeast region of Brazil. The study area lies between latitudes 3º to 18º S and between longitudes 35° to 46° W. According to the Köppen classification, semi-arid climate BSh and BSk is dominated, and the mean annual temperatures is between 26 and 28 ºC. In total nine units are incorporated in the federation, eight Northeast and a small portion of the southeast region. The land area is 982,563.3 km² with 22,598,318 inhabitants residents, nearly 12% of the national population, divided into 1,133 municipalities. The sub region has population density of 23.06 inhabitants per km2. Northeast Brazil is characterized by precipitation variability and irregularity in its spatiotemporal distribution, which make it to be under a severe water shortage. This study is aimed to analyze the rainfall variability through anomalies for El Niño and La Niña years (severe, moderate and weak), calculation the values of the Concentration Index, and numbers of irregular rainy days. The first part is concerning in analyzing the consistency and standardization of rainfall, using R-Package CLIMATOL. The work was achieved using daily rainfall data, during the period 1970-2012, based on the 104 series long enough rainfall observatories in the Brazilian semiarid region. Study of daily rainfall events, may contribute in improving land use and regional economic development, based on the water, the source of life of living beings. Results show rainfall anomalies, especially in the strong El Niño years, such as 1983 and 1992, a large variability appears in precipitation semiarid region, especially in the northern part. This study also shows a sever precipitation variability between years. The semiarid area has years of drought and years with rainfall above the climatological average normal. The stronger are the events, the more erratic rainfall, ie intense El Niño events cause intense

  9. Validating NEXRAD MPE and Stage III precipitation products for uniform rainfall on the Upper Guadalupe River Basin of the Texas Hill Country (United States)

    Wang, Xianwei; Xie, Hongjie; Sharif, Hatim; Zeitler, Jon


    SummaryThis study examines the performance of the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) and Stage III precipitation products, using a high-density rain gauge network located on the Upper Guadalupe River Basin of the Texas Hill Country. As point-area representativeness error of gauge rainfall is a major concern in assessment of radar rainfall estimation, this study develops a new method to automatically select uniform rainfall events based on coefficient of variation criterion of 3 by 3 radar cells. Only gauge observations of those uniform rainfall events are used as ground truth to evaluate radar rainfall estimation. This study proposes a new parameter probability of rain detection (POD) instead of the conditional probability of rain detection (CPOD) commonly used in previous studies to assess the capability that a radar or gauge detects rainfall. Results suggest that: (1) gauge observations of uniform rainfall better represent ground truth of a 4 × 4 km 2 radar cell than non-uniform rainfall; (2) the MPE has higher capability of rain detection than either gauge-only or Stage III; (3) the MPE has much higher linear correlation and lower mean relative difference with gauge measurements than the Stage III does; (4) the Stage III tends to overestimate precipitation (20%), but the MPE tends to underestimate (7%).

  10. Response mechanism of post-earthquake slopes under heavy rainfall (United States)

    Qiu, Hong-zhi; Kong, Ji-ming; Wang, Ren-chao; Cui, Yun; Huang, Sen-wang


    This paper uses the catastrophic landslide that occurred in Zhongxing Town, Dujiangyan City, as an example to study the formation mechanism of landslides induced by heavy rainfall in the post-Wenchuan earthquake area. The deformation characteristics of a slope under seismic loading were investigated via a shaking table test. The results show that a large number of cracks formed in the slope due to the tensile and shear forces of the vibrations, and most of the cracks had angles of approximately 45° with respect to the horizontal. A series of flume tests were performed to show how the duration and intensity of rainfall influence the responses of the shaken and non-shaken slopes. Wetting fronts were recorded under different rainfall intensities, and the depth of rainfall infiltration was greater in the shaken slope than in the non-shaken slope because the former experienced a greater extreme rainfall intensity under the same early rainfall and rainfall duration conditions. At the beginning of the rainfall infiltration experiment, the pore water pressure in the slope was negative, and settling occurred at the top of the slope. With increasing rainfall, the pore water pressure changed from negative to positive, and cracks were observed on the back surface of the slope and the shear outlet of the landslide on the front of the slope. The shaken slope was more susceptible to crack formation than the non-shaken slope under the same rainfall conditions. A comparison of the responses of the shaken and non-shaken slopes under heavy rainfall revealed that cracks formed by earthquakes provided channels for infiltration. Soil particles in the cracks of slopes were washed away, and the pore water pressure increased rapidly, especially the transient pore water pressure in the slope caused by short-term concentrated rainfall which decreased rock strength and slope stability.

  11. Multiple causes of an unexpected malaria outbreak in a high-transmission area in Madagascar. (United States)

    Kesteman, Thomas; Rafalimanantsoa, Solofoniaina A; Razafimandimby, Harimahefa; Rasamimanana, Heriniaina H; Raharimanga, Vaomalala; Ramarosandratana, Benjamin; Ratsimbasoa, Arsene; Ratovonjato, Jocelyn; Elissa, Nohal; Randrianasolo, Laurence; Finlay, Alyssa; Rogier, Christophe; Randrianarivelojosia, Milijaona


    The malaria burden in Madagascar dropped down last decade, largely due to scale-up of control measures. Nevertheless, a significant rise of malaria cases occurred in 2011-2012 in two regions of the rainy South-Eastern Madagascar, where malaria is considered as mesoendemic and the population is supposed to be protected by its acquired immunity against Plasmodium. A multidisciplinary investigation was conducted in order to identify the causes of the outbreak. In March 2012, a cross-sectional study was conducted in 20 randomly selected clusters, involving the rapid diagnostic testing of all ≥6 month-old members of households and a questionnaire about socio-demographic data and exposure to malaria control interventions. Changes in environmental conditions were evaluated by qualitative interview of local authorities, climatic conditions were evaluated by remote-sensing, and stock outs of malaria supplies in health facilities were evaluated by quantitative means. Two long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) were sampled in each cluster in order to evaluate their condition and the remanence of their insecticidal activity. The entomological investigation also encompassed the collection Anopheles vectors in two sites, and the measure of their sensitivity to deltamethrin. The cross-sectional survey included 1615 members of 440 households. The mean Plasmodium infection rate was 25.6 % and the mean bed net use on the day before survey was 71.1 %. The prevalence of Plasmodium infections was higher in 6-14 year-old children (odds ratio (OR) 7.73 [95 % CI 3.58-16.68]), in rural areas (OR 6.25 [4.46-8.76]), in poorest socio-economic tercile (OR 1.54 [1.13-2.08]), and it was lower in individuals sleeping regularly under the bed net (OR 0.51 [0.32-0.82]). Stock outs of anti-malarial drugs in the last 6 months have been reported in two third of health facilities. Rainfalls were increased as compared with the three previous rainy seasons. Vectors collected were sensitive to

  12. Past, present and future variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow

    of non-stationary extreme rainfall behaviour, in Denmark as well as worldwide. To provide recommendations on future design intensities it is necessary to explore and understand patterns of temporal variation in urban design rainfall and identify potential drivers behind past, present and future changes....... In addition, there is a need for an extreme value model that can include both regional and temporal explanatory variables, evaluate their significance and on this basis estimate the design rainfall. Both topics are addressed in this thesis. The analysed data material includes 137 years of observed daily...... of sub-daily extreme rainfall have increased over the last 34 years. Analysis of the long daily rainfall series show that the number of extreme rainfall events, smoothed by a 10-year moving average, fluctuates between periods of relative high and periods of relatively low number of extremes. The increase...

  13. Monthly Rainfall Erosivity: Conversion Factors for Different Time Resolutions and Regional Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panos Panagos


    Full Text Available As a follow up and an advancement of the recently published Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES and the respective mean annual R-factor map, the monthly aspect of rainfall erosivity has been added to REDES. Rainfall erosivity is crucial to be considered at a monthly resolution, for the optimization of land management (seasonal variation of vegetation cover and agricultural support practices as well as natural hazard protection (landslides and flood prediction. We expanded REDES by 140 rainfall stations, thus covering areas where monthly R-factor values were missing (Slovakia, Poland or former data density was not satisfactory (Austria, France, and Spain. The different time resolutions (from 5 to 60 min of high temporal data require a conversion of monthly R-factor based on a pool of stations with available data at all time resolutions. Because the conversion factors show smaller monthly variability in winter (January: 1.54 than in summer (August: 2.13, applying conversion factors on a monthly basis is suggested. The estimated monthly conversion factors allow transferring the R-factor to the desired time resolution at a European scale. The June to September period contributes to 53% of the annual rainfall erosivity in Europe, with different spatial and temporal patterns depending on the region. The study also investigated the heterogeneous seasonal patterns in different regions of Europe: on average, the Northern and Central European countries exhibit the largest R-factor values in summer, while the Southern European countries do so from October to January. In almost all countries (excluding Ireland, United Kingdom and North France, the seasonal variability of rainfall erosivity is high. Very few areas (mainly located in Spain and France show the largest from February to April. The average monthly erosivity density is very large in August (1.67 and July (1.63, while very small in January and February (0.37. This study addresses

  14. Evaluation of spatial correlations of dynamically downscaled rainfall data for eastern Australia (United States)

    Parana Manage, Nadeeka; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony; Kamal Chowdhury, A. F. M.


    As part of the Eastern Seaboard Climate Change Initiative (ESCCI) - East Coast Low project, we assess three high resolution dynamically downscaled regional climate model datasets simulated by the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model over the east coast of Australia. The datasets have been produced by the NARCliM (NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling) project at 10km resolution spanning a 60-year period (1950-2010) and driven by the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In the analysis, the RCM simulated data was first examined considering the possible spatial reduction of the point rainfall intensity occurs when transforming point rainfall to areal average rainfall at the pixel level. The ability of RCM simulated data to reproduce the observed spatial correlations was assessed using two data sets: 1) point rainfall data for selected Bureau of Meteorology daily rainfall stations within the study area and 2) the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) gridded (0.05° ×0.05°, 5km x 5km) daily rainfall dataset. The standard deviation of the RCM time series is less than the standard deviation of the observed rainfall even when allowing for the differences between point scale observed data and pixel averaged RCM data. The spatial pattern of the RCM correlations was qualitatively similar to that of the observed data. A topographic influence in the spatial correlations was also found. We studied the spatial correlation structure of both the RCM data and the observed raingauge data. The RCM correlation function was about 15-20% higher than the observed data for all separations from 10km to 200km.

  15. Rainfall prediction of Cimanuk watershed regions with canonical correlation analysis (CCA) (United States)

    Rustiana, Shailla; Nurani Ruchjana, Budi; Setiawan Abdullah, Atje; Hermawan, Eddy; Berliana Sipayung, Sinta; Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, I.; Krismianto


    Rainfall prediction in Indonesia is very influential on various development sectors, such as agriculture, fisheries, water resources, industry, and other sectors. The inaccurate predictions can lead to negative effects. Cimanuk watershed is one of the main pillar of water resources in West Java. This watersheds divided into three parts, which is a headwater of Cimanuk sub-watershed, Middle of Cimanuk sub-watershed and downstream of Cimanuk sub- watershed. The flow of this watershed will flow through the Jatigede reservoir and will supply water to the north-coast area in the next few years. So, the reliable model of rainfall prediction is very needed in this watershed. Rainfall prediction conducted with Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) method using Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) software. The prediction is every 3months on 2016 (after January) based on Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data over West Java. Predictors used in CPT were the monthly data index of Nino3.4, Dipole Mode (DMI), and Monsoon Index (AUSMI-ISMI-WNPMI-WYMI) with initial condition January. The initial condition is chosen by the last data update. While, the predictant were monthly rainfall data CHIRPS region of West Java. The results of prediction rainfall showed by skill map from Pearson Correlation. High correlation of skill map are on MAM (Mar-Apr-May), AMJ (Apr-May-Jun), and JJA (Jun-Jul-Aug) which means the model is reliable to forecast rainfall distribution over Cimanuk watersheds region (over West Java) on those seasons. CCA score over those season prediction mostly over 0.7. The accuracy of the model CPT also indicated by the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve of the results of Pearson correlation 3 representative point of sub-watershed (Sumedang, Majalengka, and Cirebon), were mostly located in the top line of non-skill, and evidenced by the same of rainfall patterns between observation and forecast. So, the model of CPT with CCA method

  16. Intra-Seasonal Rainfall Variations and Linkage with Kharif Crop Production: An Attempt to Evaluate Predictability of Sub-Seasonal Rainfall Events (United States)

    Singh, Ankita; Ghosh, Kripan; Mohanty, U. C.


    The sub-seasonal variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall highly impacts Kharif crop production in comparison with seasonal total rainfall. The rainfall frequency and intensity corresponding to various rainfall events are found to be highly related to crop production and therefore, the predictability of such events are considered to be diagnosed. Daily rainfall predictions are made available by one of the coupled dynamical model National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (NCEPCFS). A large error in the simulation of daily rainfall sequence influences to take up a bias correction and for that reason, two approaches are used. The bias-corrected GCM is able to capture the inter-annual variability in rainfall events. Maximum prediction skill of frequency of less rainfall (LR) event is observed during the month of September and a similar result is also noticed for moderate rainfall event with maximum skill over the central parts of the country. On the other hand, the impact of rainfall weekly rainfall intensity is evaluated against the Kharif rice production. It is found that weekly rainfall intensity during July is having a significant impact on Kharif rice production, but the corresponding skill was found very low in GCM. The GCM are able to simulate the less and moderate rainfall frequency with significant skill.

  17. Gauging Through the Crowd: A Crowd-Sourcing Approach to Urban Rainfall Measurement and Storm Water Modeling Implications (United States)

    Yang, Pan; Ng, Tze Ling


    Accurate rainfall measurement at high spatial and temporal resolutions is critical for the modeling and management of urban storm water. In this study, we conduct computer simulation experiments to test the potential of a crowd-sourcing approach, where smartphones, surveillance cameras, and other devices act as precipitation sensors, as an alternative to the traditional approach of using rain gauges to monitor urban rainfall. The crowd-sourcing approach is promising as it has the potential to provide high-density measurements, albeit with relatively large individual errors. We explore the potential of this approach for urban rainfall monitoring and the subsequent implications for storm water modeling through a series of simulation experiments involving synthetically generated crowd-sourced rainfall data and a storm water model. The results show that even under conservative assumptions, crowd-sourced rainfall data lead to more accurate modeling of storm water flows as compared to rain gauge data. We observe the relative superiority of the crowd-sourcing approach to vary depending on crowd participation rate, measurement accuracy, drainage area, choice of performance statistic, and crowd-sourced observation type. A possible reason for our findings is the differences between the error structures of crowd-sourced and rain gauge rainfall fields resulting from the differences between the errors and densities of the raw measurement data underlying the two field types.

  18. A rainfall simulator based on multifractal generator (United States)

    Akrour, Nawal; mallet, Cecile; barthes, Laurent; chazottes, Aymeric


    The Precipitations are due to complex meteorological phenomenon's and unlike other geophysical constituents such as water vapour concentration they present a relaxation behaviour leading to an alternation of dry and wet periods. Thus, precipitations can be described as intermittent process. The spatial and temporal variability of this phenomenon is significant and covers large scales. This high variability can cause extreme events which are difficult to observe properly because of their suddenness and their localized character. For all these reasons, the precipitations are therefore difficult to model. This study aims to adapt a one-dimensional time series model previously developed by the authors [Akrour et al., 2013, 2014] to a two-dimensional rainfall generator. The original time series model can be divided into 3 major steps : rain support generation, intra event rain rates generation using multifractal and finally calibration process. We use the same kind of methodology in the present study. Based on dataset obtained from meteorological radar of Météo France with a spatial resolution of 1 km x 1 km we present the used approach : Firstly, the extraction of rain support (rain/no rain area) allowing the retrieval of the rain support structure function (variogram) and fractal properties. This leads us to use either the rain support modelisation proposed by ScleissXXX [ref] or directly real rain support extracted from radar rain maps. Then, the generation (over rain areas) of rain rates is made thanks to a 2D multifractal Fractionnally Integrated Flux (FIF) model [ref]. This second stage is followed by a calibration/forcing step (forcing average rain rate per events) added in order to provide rain rate coherent with observed rain-rate distribution. The forcing process is based on a relation identified from the average rain rate of observed events and their surfaces. The presentation will first explain the different steps presented above, then some results

  19. An interdecadal American rainfall mode (United States)

    Jury, Mark R.


    Low-frequency climate variability across the American continents and surrounding oceans is analyzed by application of singular value decomposition (SVD) to gauge-based rainfall and environmental anomaly fields in the period 1901-2002. A 5-year filter is used to maintain a focus on interdecadal cycles. The rainfall regime of particular interest (mode 1) is when West Africa and the Caribbean share positive loading and North and South America share negative loading. Wavelet cospectral energy is found at ˜8, 24, and 50 years for Caribbean/West African zones and 16 and 32 years for North/South America. West Africa and South America exhibit antiphase multidecadal variability, while North America and the Caribbean rainfall exhibit quasi-decadal cycles. The rainfall associations are nonstationary. In the early 1900s, Caribbean and South American rainfall were antiphase. Since 1930 low-frequency oscillations of North American (West African) rainfall have been positively (negatively) associated with South America. Low-frequency oscillations of North American rainfall have been consistently antiphase with respect to Caribbean rainfall; however, West Africa rainfall fluctuations have been in phase with the Caribbean more in the period 1920-1950 than at other times. Hemispheric-scale environmental SVD patterns and scores were compared with the leading rainfall modes. The north-south gradient modes in temperature are influential in respect of mode 1 rainfall, while east-west gradients relate to mode 2 (northern Brazil) rainfall. The ability of the GFDL2.1 coupled (ocean-atmosphere) general circulation model to represent interdecadal rainfall modes in the 20th century was evaluated. While mode 2 is reproduced, mode 1 remains elusive.

  20. Using multinomial and imprecise probability for non-parametric modelling of rainfall in Manizales (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas


    Full Text Available This article presents a rainfall model constructed by applying non-parametric modelling and imprecise probabilities; these tools were used because there was not enough homogeneous information in the study area. The area’s hydro-logical information regarding rainfall was scarce and existing hydrological time series were not uniform. A distributed extended rainfall model was constructed from so-called probability boxes (p-boxes, multinomial probability distribu-tion and confidence intervals (a friendly algorithm was constructed for non-parametric modelling by combining the last two tools. This model confirmed the high level of uncertainty involved in local rainfall modelling. Uncertainty en-compassed the whole range (domain of probability values thereby showing the severe limitations on information, leading to the conclusion that a detailed estimation of probability would lead to significant error. Nevertheless, rele-vant information was extracted; it was estimated that maximum daily rainfall threshold (70 mm would be surpassed at least once every three years and the magnitude of uncertainty affecting hydrological parameter estimation. This paper’s conclusions may be of interest to non-parametric modellers and decisions-makers as such modelling and imprecise probability represents an alternative for hydrological variable assessment and maybe an obligatory proce-dure in the future. Its potential lies in treating scarce information and represents a robust modelling strategy for non-seasonal stochastic modelling conditions

  1. Continuous rainfall simulation: 2. A regionalized daily rainfall generation approach (United States)

    Mehrotra, Rajeshwar; Westra, Seth; Sharma, Ashish; Srikanthan, Ratnasingham


    This paper is the second of two in the current issue that presents a framework for simulating continuous (uninterrupted) rainfall sequences at both gaged and ungaged locations. The ultimate objective of the papers is to present a methodology for stochastically generating continuous subdaily rainfall sequences at any location such that the statistics at a range of aggregation scales are preserved. In this paper we complete the regionalized algorithm by adopting a rationale for generating daily sequences at any location by sampling daily rainfall records from "nearby" gages with statistically similar rainfall sequences.The approach consists of two distinct steps: first the identification of a set of locations with daily rainfall sequences that are statistically similar to the location of interest, and second the development of an algorithm to sample daily rainfall from those locations. In the first step, the similarity between all bivariate combinations of 2708 daily rainfall records across Australia were considered, and a logistic regression model was formulated to predict the similarity between stations as a function of a number of physiographic covariates. Based on the model results, a number of nearby locations with adequate daily rainfall records are identified for any ungaged location of interest (the "target" location), and then used as the basis for stochastically generating the daily rainfall sequences. The continuous simulation algorithm was tested at five locations where long historical daily rainfall records are available for comparison, and found to perform well in representing the distributional and dependence attributes of the observed daily record. These daily sequences were then used to disaggregate to a subdaily time step using the rainfall state-based disaggregation approach described in the first paper, and found to provide a good representation of the continuous rainfall sequences at the location of interest.

  2. Asian primate species richness correlates with rainfall.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Chen Wang

    Full Text Available Previous studies of meta-analyses found significantly positive correlations between primate species richness and rainfall for Africa, Madagascar and the Neotropics, with the exception of Asia, leaving the open question whether that anomaly is the result of sampling bias, biogeography, or some other factor. This study re-examines the question using modelled data, with primate species richness data from the Southeast Asian Mammals Databank and rainfall data from the Climatic Research Unit. Data processing with Geographical Information Systems resulted in 390 sample points. Reduced major axis and ordinary least squares regressions were employed to examine the relationship for six regions, including the whole study area of Southeast Asia, and the subareas of Huxley West, Huxley East, Mainland Southeast Asia, Borneo, and Sumatra. The results showed a significant positive relationship between primate species richness and mean annual rainfall for Southeast Asia (r = 0.26, P<0.001. Comparing the results for the large islands and Mainland Southeast Asia showed that Sumatra had the highest correlation (r = 0.58; P<0.05. After controlling for the major biogeographic effect associated with Huxley's Line, our results showed that primate species richness is positively associated with mean annual rainfall in Southeast Asia. Our findings contrast to prior studies of meta-analyses that showed no relationship between rainfall and primate species richness in Asia, and thereby bring Asia into agreement with results showing significant positive correlations between rainfall and primate species richness everywhere else in the world. The inference is that previous anomalous results for Asia were result of sampling bias in the meta-analysis.

  3. General Rainfall Patterns in Indonesia and the Potential Impacts of Local Seas on Rainfall Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Soo Lee


    Full Text Available The relationships between observed rainfall, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO and sea surface temperature (SST variations in the Pacific and Indian Oceans were analyzed using a 1° latitude–longitude grid over Indonesia. The Global Summary of the Day rainfall records provide 26 years of rainfall data (January 1985 to August 2010 for 23 stations throughout the Indonesian islands. The ENSO and SST variations were calculated using the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, NINO1 + 2, NINO3, NINO3.4, NINO4, the Dipole Mode Index (DMI for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD, and Indian Ocean Basin-wide (IOBW index. The results show that the rainfall in the southern Sumatra and southern Java Islands, which face the Indian Ocean, was positively correlated with the negative IOD, whereas the rainfall in northwestern Sumatra was positively correlated with the positive IOD. In eastern Indonesia, the rainfall was positively correlated with La Niña. The PDO index was also strongly correlated with the rainfall in this region. In central Indonesia, seasonal variations due to monsoons are predominant, and the rainfall exhibited strong negative and positive correlations with the MEI and NINO.WEST, respectively, indicating that high rainfall occurred during strong La Niña episodes. The highly negative and positive correlations with the MEI and NINO.WEST, respectively, in central Indonesia led us to analyze the impacts of Indonesian seas on the rainfall in the region. Using four synoptic-scale scenarios, we investigated the relative residence time of Indonesian seawater along the pathways associated with the Pacific-Indian hydraulic head difference. The results show that when both the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans are warm (positive NINO.WEST and negative DMI, the rainfall intensity over central Indonesia is strongest. This increase is explained by the relationship between the residence time of Indonesian seawater and the

  4. Assessing operative natural and anthropogenic forcing factors from long-term climate time series of Uttarakhand (India) in the backdrop of recurring extreme rainfall events over northwest Himalaya (United States)

    Agnihotri, Rajesh; Dimri, A. P.; Joshi, H. M.; Verma, N. K.; Sharma, C.; Singh, J.; Sundriyal, Y. P.


    The entire Indo-Himalayan region from northwest (Kashmir) to northeast (Assam) is facing prevalence of floods and landslides in recent years causing massive loss of property, human and animal lives, infrastructure, and eventually threatening tourist activities substantially. Extremely intense rainfall event of 2013 C.E. (between 15 and 17 June) kicked off mammoth flash floods in the Kedarnath area of Uttarakhand state, resulting in huge socioeconomic losses to the state and country. Uttarakhand is an important hilly region attracting thousands of tourists every year owing to numerous shrines and forested mountainous tourist spots. Though recent studies indicate a plausible weakening of Indian summer monsoon rainfall overall, recurrent anomalous high rainfall events over northwest Himalaya (e.g. -2010, 2013, and 2016) point out the need for a thorough reassessment of long-term time series data of regional rainfall and ambient temperatures in order to trace signatures of a shifting pattern in regional meteorology, if any. Accordingly, here we investigate 100-year-long monthly rainfall and air temperature time series data for a selected grid (28.5°N, 31.25°N; 78.75°E, 81.25°E) covering most parts of Uttarakhand state. We also examined temporal variance in interrelationships among regional meteorological data (temperature and precipitation) and key global climate variability indices using advance statistical methods. Major findings are (i) significant increase in pre-monsoon air temperature over Uttarakhand after 1997, (ii) increasing upward trend in June-July rainfall and its relationship with regional May temperatures (iii) monsoonal rainfall (June, July, August, and September; JJAS) showing covariance with interannual variability in Eurasian snow cover (ESC) extent during the month of March, and (iv) enhancing tendency of anomalous high rainfall events during negative phases of Arctic Oscillation. Obtained results indicate that under warming scenario, JJ

  5. Deforestation alters rainfall: a myth or reality (United States)

    Hanif, M. F.; Mustafa, M. R.; Hashim, A. M.; Yusof, K. W.


    To cope with the issue of food safety and human shelter, natural landscape has gone through a number of alterations. In the coming future, the expansion of urban land and agricultural farms will likely disrupt the natural environment. Researchers have claimed that land use change may become the most serious issue of the current century. Thus, it is necessary to understand the consequences of land use change on the climatic variables, e.g., rainfall. This study investigated the impact of deforestation on local rainfall. An integrated methodology was adopted to achieve the objectives. Above ground biomass was considered as the indicator of forest areas. Time series data of a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor were obtained for the year of 2000, 2005, and 2010. Rainfall data were collected from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage, Malaysia. The MODIS time series data were classified and four major classes were developed based on the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) ranges. The results of the classification showed that water, and urban and agricultural lands have increased in their area by 2, 3, and 6%, respectively. On the other hand, the area of forest has decreased 10% collectively from 2000 to 2010. The results of NDVI and rainfall data were analysed by using a linear regression analysis. The results showed a significant relationship at a 90% confidence interval between rainfall and deforestation (t = 1.92, p = 0.06). The results of this study may provide information about the consequences of land use on the climate on the local scale.

  6. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino


    regional level. This is done for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy, i.e. the Flumendosa catchment, using climate model rainfall and atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project ( In doing so, we split the historical rainfall record of mean areal precipitation (MAP) in 15-year calibration and 45-year validation periods, and compare the historical rainfall statistics to those obtained from: a) Q-Q corrected climate model rainfall products, and b) synthetic rainfall series generated by the suggested downscaling scheme. To our knowledge, this is the first time that climate model rainfall and statistically downscaled precipitation are compared to catchment-averaged MAP at a daily resolution. The obtained results are promising, since the proposed downscaling scheme is more accurate and robust in reproducing a number of historical rainfall statistics, independent of the climate model used and the length of the calibration period. This is particularly the case for the yearly rainfall maxima, where direct statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs shows increased sensitivity to the length of the calibration period and the climate model used. The robustness of the suggested downscaling scheme in modeling rainfall extremes at a daily resolution, is a notable feature that can effectively be used to assess hydrologic risk at a regional level under changing climatic conditions. Acknowledgments The research project is implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General Secretariat for Research and Technology), and is co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Greek State. CRS4 highly acknowledges the contribution of the Sardinian regional authorities.

  7. Critical Phenomena of Rainfall in Ecuador (United States)

    Serrano, Sh.; Vasquez, N.; Jacome, P.; Basile, L.


    Self-organized criticality (SOC) is characterized by a power law behavior over complex systems like earthquakes and avalanches. We study rainfall using data of one day, 3 hours and 10 min temporal resolution from INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia) station at Izobamba, DMQ (Metropolitan District of Quito), satellite data over Ecuador from Tropical Rainfall Measure Mission (TRMM,) and REMMAQ (Red Metropolitana de Monitoreo Atmosferico de Quito) meteorological stations over, respectively. Our results show a power law behavior of the number of rain events versus mm of rainfall measured for the high resolution case (10 min), and as the resolution decreases this behavior gets lost. This statistical property is the fingerprint of a self-organized critical process (Peter and Christensen, 2002) and may serve as a benchmark for models of precipitation based in phase transitions between water vapor and precipitation (Peter and Neeling, 2006).

  8. Impact of an intense rainfall event on soil properties following a wildfire in a Mediterranean environment (North-East Spain). (United States)

    Francos, Marcos; Pereira, Paulo; Alcañiz, Meritxell; Mataix-Solera, Jorge; Úbeda, Xavier


    Intense rainfall events after severe wildfires can have an impact on soil properties, above all in the Mediterranean environment. This study seeks to examine the immediate impact and the effect after a year of an intense rainfall event on a Mediterranean forest affected by a high severity wildfire. The work analyses the following soil properties: soil aggregate stability, total nitrogen, total carbon, organic and inorganic carbon, the C/N ratio, carbonates, pH, electrical conductivity, extractable calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, available phosphorous and the sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR). We sampled soils in the burned area before, immediately after and one year after the rainfall event. The results showed that the intense rainfall event did not have an immediate impact on soil aggregate stability, but a significant difference was recorded one year after. The intense precipitation did not result in any significant changes in soil total nitrogen, total carbon, inorganic carbon, the C/N ratio and carbonates during the study period. Differences were only registered in soil organic carbon. The soil organic carbon content was significantly higher after the rainfall than in the other sampling dates. The rainfall event did increase soil pH, electrical conductivity, major cations, available phosphorous and the SPAR. One year after the fire, a significant decrease in soil aggregate stability was observed that can be attributed to high SPAR levels and human intervention, while the reduction in extractable elements can be attributed to soil leaching and vegetation consumption. Overall, the intense rainfall event, other post-fire rainfall events and human intervention did not have a detrimental impact on soil properties in all probability owing to the flat plot topography. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Rainfall Variability along the Southern Flank of the Bambouto ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Oct 27, 2008 ... the zone where frequent tornadoes are encountered, which can explain why despite its long dry season, annual rainfall is high. The atmosphere here is very cloudy towards the caldera. Rainfall from this station decreases sharply, as well as the elevation in the southern direction, up to the relatively dry zone ...

  10. Climatology of daily rainfall semi-variance in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, van de C.Z.; Leijnse, H.; Torfs, P.J.J.F.; Uijlenhoet, R.


    Rain gauges can offer high quality rainfall measurements at their locations. Networks of rain gauges can offer better insight into the space-time variability of rainfall, but they tend to be too widely spaced for accurate estimates between points. While remote sensing systems, such as radars and

  11. Bias adjustment of infrared-based rainfall estimation using Passive Microwave satellite rainfall data (United States)

    Karbalaee, Negar; Hsu, Kuolin; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Braithwaite, Dan


    This study explores using Passive Microwave (PMW) rainfall estimation for spatial and temporal adjustment of Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS). The PERSIANN-CCS algorithm collects information from infrared images to estimate rainfall. PERSIANN-CCS is one of the algorithms used in the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (Global Precipitation Mission) estimation for the time period PMW rainfall estimations are limited or not available. Continued improvement of PERSIANN-CCS will support Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM for current as well as retrospective estimations of global precipitation. This study takes advantage of the high spatial and temporal resolution of GEO-based PERSIANN-CCS estimation and the more effective, but lower sample frequency, PMW estimation. The Probability Matching Method (PMM) was used to adjust the rainfall distribution of GEO-based PERSIANN-CCS toward that of PMW rainfall estimation. The results show that a significant improvement of global PERSIANN-CCS rainfall estimation is obtained.

  12. Fitting monthly Peninsula Malaysian rainfall using Tweedie distribution (United States)

    Yunus, R. M.; Hasan, M. M.; Zubairi, Y. Z.


    In this study, the Tweedie distribution was used to fit the monthly rainfall data from 24 monitoring stations of Peninsula Malaysia for the period from January, 2008 to April, 2015. The aim of the study is to determine whether the distributions within the Tweedie family fit well the monthly Malaysian rainfall data. Within the Tweedie family, the gamma distribution is generally used for fitting the rainfall totals, however the Poisson-gamma distribution is more useful to describe two important features of rainfall pattern, which are the occurrences (dry months) and the amount (wet months). First, the appropriate distribution of the monthly rainfall was identified within the Tweedie family for each station. Then, the Tweedie Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with no explanatory variable was used to model the monthly rainfall data. Graphical representation was used to assess model appropriateness. The QQ plots of quantile residuals show that the Tweedie models fit the monthly rainfall data better for majority of the stations in the west coast and mid land than those in the east coast of Peninsula. This significant finding suggests that the best fitted distribution depends on the geographical location of the monitoring station. In this paper, a simple model is developed for generating synthetic rainfall data for use in various areas, including agriculture and irrigation. We have showed that the data that were simulated using the Tweedie distribution have fairly similar frequency histogram to that of the actual data. Both the mean number of rainfall events and mean amount of rain for a month were estimated simultaneously for the case that the Poisson gamma distribution fits the data reasonably well. Thus, this work complements previous studies that fit the rainfall amount and the occurrence of rainfall events separately, each to a different distribution.

  13. Radar rainfall image repair techniques


    Wesson, Stephen M.; Pegram, Geoffrey G. S.


    There are various quality problems associated with radar rainfall data viewed in images that include ground clutter, beam blocking and anomalous propagation, to name a few. To obtain the best rainfall estimate possible, techniques for removing ground clutter (non-meteorological echoes that influence radar data quality) on 2-D radar rainfall image data sets are presented here. These techniques concentrate on repairing the images in both a computationally fast and accurate manner, and...

  14. Radar rainfall image repair techniques


    Wesson, Stephen M.; Pegram, Geoffrey G. S.


    There are various quality problems associated with radar rainfall data viewed in images that include ground clutter, beam blocking and anomalous propagation, to name a few. To obtain the best rainfall estimate possible, techniques for removing ground clutter (non-meteorological echoes that influence radar data quality) on 2-D radar rainfall image data sets are presented here. These techniques concentrate on repairing the images in both a computationally fast...

  15. Calibration of a Hydrological Model using Ensemble Satellite Rainfall Inputs (United States)

    Skinner, Christopher; Bellerby, Timothy


    A combination of satellite rainfall estimates (SRFE) and hydrological models can provide useful information for many remote areas of the planet. However, each component contains its own uncertainties and these uncertainties will interact when SRFE are used as inputs for hydrological models. For any assessment of a coupled system such as this there is a requirement for a comprehensive analysis of all sources of uncertainty, with full consideration of both facets. SRFE have been shown to be useful in many areas that lack the infrastructure to make timely and accurate estimations of rainfall from the ground. Sub-Saharan Africa is typical of this, where a paucity of rain recording radar and sparse gauging networks combine with a highly variable climate and a reliance on rain-fed agriculture. When operating at higher spatial and temporal resolutions, SRFE contain large uncertainties which will propagate through a hydrological model if used as a driving input. This study used a sequential method to produce ensemble SRFE based around the full conditional distribution of recorded rainfall from a sparse, historic raingauge network. The TAMSIM method (introduced by Teo, 2006) was used to produce 200 unique yet equiprobable SRFE, each used as a driver to a downstream hydrological model. Traditional hydrological modelling uses the adjustment of variable parameters within the model to reduce the error between a recorded record of discharge and the modelled one, and many automatic procedures have been produced to refine this calibration process. When SRFE have been used as a driver, little consideration has been paid to this process and often a calibration using the raingauge data has been used, without any consideration to the resulting uncertainty within the hydrological model and its calibration. A similar issue arises when ensemble inputs are used to a hydrological model that has been calibrated using a deterministic estimate of rainfall. This study has shown that such

  16. Multifractals and the temporal structure of rainfall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lima, de M.I.P.


    Rainfall is a highly non-linear hydrological process that exhibits wide variability over a broad range of time and space scales. The strongly irregular fluctuations of rain are difficult to capture instrumentally and to handle mathematically. The purpose of this work is to contribute to a

  17. The Effect of Rainfall Patterns on the Mechanisms of Shallow Slope Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Suradi


    Full Text Available This paper examines how rainfall patterns affect the mechanisms of shallow slope failure. Numerical modelling, utilising the commercial software SVFlux and SVSlope, was carried out for a coupled analysis of rainfall-induced slope seepage and instability, with reference to a shallow landslide took place in Jabiru, Northern Territory (NT Australia in 2007. Rainfall events were varied in terms of pattern in this analysis. The results revealed that slopes are sensitive to rainfall pattern when the rainfall intensity has a high degree of fluctuation at around the same value as that of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Average rainfall intensity at the beginning of a rainfall period plays a primary role in determining the rate of decrease in initial factor of safety (Fi towards minimum factor of safety (Fmin. The effect of rainfall events on the slope instability is attributed to the amount of rainwater infiltration into slope associated with rainfall pattern.

  18. Cross-validation Methodology between Ground and GPM Satellite-based Radar Rainfall Product over Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) Metroplex (United States)

    Chen, H.; Chandrasekar, V.; Biswas, S.


    Over the past two decades, a large number of rainfall products have been developed based on satellite, radar, and/or rain gauge observations. However, to produce optimal rainfall estimation for a given region is still challenging due to the space time variability of rainfall at many scales and the spatial and temporal sampling difference of different rainfall instruments. In order to produce high-resolution rainfall products for urban flash flood applications and improve the weather sensing capability in urban environment, the center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA), in collaboration with National Weather Service (NWS) and North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG), has developed an urban radar remote sensing network in DFW Metroplex. DFW is the largest inland metropolitan area in the U.S., that experiences a wide range of natural weather hazards such as flash flood and hailstorms. The DFW urban remote sensing network, centered by the deployment of eight dual-polarization X-band radars and a NWS WSR-88DP radar, is expected to provide impacts-based warning and forecasts for benefit of the public safety and economy. High-resolution quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is one of the major goals of the development of this urban test bed. In addition to ground radar-based rainfall estimation, satellite-based rainfall products for this area are also of interest for this study. Typical example is the rainfall rate product produced by the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) onboard Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory satellite. Therefore, cross-comparison between ground and space-based rainfall estimation is critical to building an optimal regional rainfall system, which can take advantages of the sampling differences of different sensors. This paper presents the real-time high-resolution QPE system developed for DFW urban radar network, which is based upon the combination of S-band WSR-88DP and X

  19. Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling (United States)

    Murla Tuyls, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren


    Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g. DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized catchment area of 440ha and 10.400inhab. located in Jutland (Denmark), which has received the impact of several pluvial flooding in the last recent years. A historical rainfall dataset from the last 35 years from two different rain gauges located at 2 and 10 km from the study area has been provided by the Danish Wastewater Pollution Committee and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). The most extreme 25 rainfall events have been selected through a two-step multi-criteria procedure, ensuring an adequate variability of rainfall, from extreme high peak storms with a short duration to moderate rainfall with longer duration. In addition, a coupled 1D/2D surface and network UDS model of the catchment area developed in an integrated MIKE URBAN and MIKE Flood model (DHI 2014), considering both permeable and impermeable areas, in combination with a DTM (2x2m res.) has been used to study and assess in detail flood RP. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall RP and flood response. Local flood levels, flood area and volume RP estimates should therefore not be neglected in

  20. Impacts of changing rainfall regime on the demography of tropical birds (United States)

    Brawn, Jeffrey D.; Benson, Thomas J.; Stager, Maria; Sly, Nicholas D.; Tarwater, Corey E.


    Biodiversity in tropical regions is particularly high and may be highly sensitive to climate change. Unfortunately, a lack of long-term data hampers understanding of how tropical species, especially animals, may react to projected environmental changes. The amount and timing of rainfall is key to the function of tropical ecosystems and, although specific model predictions differ, there is general agreement that rainfall regimes will change over large areas of the tropics. Here, we estimate associations between dry season length (DSL) and the population biology of 20 bird species sampled in central Panama over a 33-year period. Longer dry seasons decreased the population growth rates and viability of nearly one-third of the species sampled. Simulations with modest increases in DSL suggest that consistently longer dry seasons will change the structure of tropical bird communities. Such change may occur even without direct loss of habitat--a finding with fundamental implications for conservation planning. Systematic changes in rainfall regime may threaten some populations and communities of tropical animals even in large tracts of protected habitat. These findings suggest the need for collaboration between climate scientists and conservation biologists to identify areas where rainfall regimes will be able to plausibly maintain wildlife populations.

  1. Historical trend of hourly extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia (United States)

    Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.


    Hourly rainfall data between the years 1975 and 2010 across the Peninsular Malaysia were analyzed for trends in hourly extreme rainfall events. The analyses were conducted on rainfall occurrences during the northeast monsoon (November-February) known as NEM, the southwest monsoon (May-August) known as SWM, and the two inter-monsoon seasons, i.e., March-April (MA) and September-October (SO). Several extreme rainfall indices were calculated at the station level. The extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia showed an increasing trend between the years 1975 and 2010. The trend analysis was conducted using linear regression; no serial correlation was detected from the Durbin-Watson test. Ordinary kriging was used to determine the spatial patterns of trends in seasonal extremes. The total amount of rainfall received during NEM is higher compared to rainfall received during inter-monsoon seasons. However, intense rainfall is observed during the inter-monsoon season with higher hourly total amount of rainfall. The eastern part of peninsular was most affected by stratiform rains, while convective rain contributes more precipitation to areas in the western part of the peninsular. From the distribution of spatial pattern of trend, the extreme frequency index (Freq >20) gives significant contribution to the positive extreme rainfall trend during the monsoon seasons. Meanwhile, both extreme frequency and extreme intensity (24-Hr Max, Freq >95th, Tot >95th, Tot >99th, and Hr Max) indices give significant contribution to the positive extreme rainfall trend during the inter-monsoon seasons. Most of the significant extreme indices showed the positive sign of trends. However, a negative trend of extreme rainfall was found in the northwest coast due to the existence of Titiwangsa Range. The extreme intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme cumulative indices showed increasing trends during the NEM and MA while extreme intensity and extreme frequency had similar trends during

  2. On the asymmetric distribution of shear-relative typhoon rainfall (United States)

    Gao, Si; Zhai, Shunan; Li, Tim; Chen, Zhifan


    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 precipitation, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final analysis and the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo best-track data during 2000-2015 are used to compare spatial rainfall distribution associated with Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) with different vertical wind shear directions and investigate possible mechanisms. Results show that the maximum TC rainfall are all located in the downshear left quadrant regardless of shear direction, and TCs with easterly shear have greater magnitudes of rainfall than those with westerly shear, consistent with previous studies. Rainfall amount of a TC is related to its relative position and proximity from the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the intensity of water vapor transport, and low-level jet is favorable for water vapor transport. The maximum of vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (MFC) are located on the downshear side regardless of shear direction, and the contribution of wind convergence to the total MFC is far larger than that of moisture advection. The cyclonic displacement of the maximum rainfall relative to the maximum MFC is possibly due to advection of hydrometeors by low- and middle-level cyclonic circulation of TCs. The relationship between TC rainfall and the WPSH through water vapor transport and vertical wind shear implies that TC rainfall may be highly predictable given the high predictability of the WPSH.

  3. Highly Flexible and High-Performance Complementary Inverters of Large-Area Transition Metal Dichalcogenide Monolayers

    KAUST Repository

    Pu, Jiang


    Complementary inverters constructed from large-area monolayers of WSe2 and MoS2 achieve excellent logic swings and yield an extremely high gain, large total noise margin, low power consumption, and good switching speed. Moreover, the WSe2 complementary-like inverters built on plastic substrates exhibit high mechanical stability. The results provide a path toward large-area flexible electronics. © 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  4. High surface area aerogels for energy storage and efficiency (United States)

    Maloney, Ryan Patrick

    ADAI are demonstrated in a third-generation prototypical thermoelectric generator for automotive waste heat recovery. The second chapter then details two different aerogel-based materials for electrochemical energy storage. It begins with lithium titanate aerogel, which takes advantage of the high surface area of the aerogel morphology to display a batt-cap behavior. This should allow the lithium titanate aerogel to perform at higher rates than would normally be expected for the bulk oxide material. Additionally, the flexibility of the sol-gel process is demonstrated through the incorporation of electrically conductive high-surface area exfoliated graphite nanoplatelets in the oxide. The last section describes the characterization of a LiMn2O 4 spinel coated carbon nanofoam in a non-aqueous electrolyte. The short diffusion path, high surface area and intimately wired architecture of the nanofoam allows the oxide to retain its capacity at significantly higher rates when compared with literature values for the bulk oxide. Additionally, the nanometric length scale improves cycle life, and the high surface area dramatically increases the insertion capacity by providing a higher concentration of surface defects. Taken together, it is clear that aerogels are an extremely attractive class of material for applications pertaining to energy and efficiency, and further research in this area will provide valuable solutions for pressing societal needs. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

  5. Dynamic Hydrological Modeling in Drylands with TRMM Based Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Tarnavsky


    Full Text Available This paper introduces and evaluates DryMOD, a dynamic water balance model of the key hydrological process in drylands that is based on free, public-domain datasets. The rainfall model of DryMOD makes optimal use of spatially disaggregated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM datasets to simulate hourly rainfall intensities at a spatial resolution of 1-km. Regional-scale applications of the model in seasonal catchments in Tunisia and Senegal characterize runoff and soil moisture distribution and dynamics in response to varying rainfall data inputs and soil properties. The results highlight the need for hourly-based rainfall simulation and for correcting TRMM 3B42 rainfall intensities for the fractional cover of rainfall (FCR. Without FCR correction and disaggregation to 1 km, TRMM 3B42 based rainfall intensities are too low to generate surface runoff and to induce substantial changes to soil moisture storage. The outcomes from the sensitivity analysis show that topsoil porosity is the most important soil property for simulation of runoff and soil moisture. Thus, we demonstrate the benefit of hydrological investigations at a scale, for which reliable information on soil profile characteristics exists and which is sufficiently fine to account for the heterogeneities of these. Where such information is available, application of DryMOD can assist in the spatial and temporal planning of water harvesting according to runoff-generating areas and the runoff ratio, as well as in the optimization of agricultural activities based on realistic representation of soil moisture conditions.

  6. Generating monthly rainfall amount using multivariate skew-t copula (United States)

    Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Zanariah Satari, Siti


    This study aims to generate rainfall data in cases where the data is not available or not enough for a certain area of study. In general, the rainfall data is rightly skewed, so the multivariate skew-t copula is used as it able to model rainfall amount and capture the spatial dependence in the data. To illustrate the methodology, three rainfall stations in Kelantan are used. Firstly, the observed data is transformed to uniform unit. The Spearman’s correlation coefficient is calculated between the three stations. It is found that the correlations between the stations are significance at α = 0.05. The next step involved generating the synthetic rainfall data using the multivariate skew-t copula. The data is then transformed to uniform unit and the correlation coefficient is calculated for the generated data. Finally, the correlation coefficient of the observed and the generated data are compared. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit test is used to assess the fit between theoretical and empirical copula and supported by graphical representation. The results show that there is no significant difference between empirical and theoretical copula at 5% significance level. Thus, the multivariate skew-t copula is suitable to generate synthetic rainfall data that can mimic the observed rainfall data. It can also be used to present different rainfall scenarios by changing the value of the parameters in the model.

  7. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Variables: Assessing Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Kaleris, Vassilios


    Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, and the modeling parameterizations used, precipitation is one of the least well reproduced hydrologic variables by both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). This is especially the case at a regional level (where hydrologic risks are assessed) and at small temporal scales (e.g. daily) used to run hydrologic models. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings and assess the effect of climate change on rainfall statistics at hydrologically relevant scales, Langousis and Kaleris (2013) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables. The developed downscaling scheme was tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (, and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece, and was proved capable of reproducing several statistical properties of actual rainfall records, at both annual and seasonal levels. This was done solely by conditioning rainfall simulation on a vector of atmospheric predictors, properly selected to reflect the relative influence of upper-air variables on ground-level rainfall statistics. In this study, we apply the developed framework for conditional rainfall simulation using atmospheric data from different GCM/RCM combinations. This is done using atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (, and daily rainfall measurements for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy; i.e. the Flumendosa catchment. Since GCM/RCM products are suited to reproduce the local climatology in a statistical sense (i.e. in terms of relative frequencies), rather than ensuring a one-to-one temporal correspondence between observed and simulated fields (i.e. as is the case for ERA-interim reanalysis data), we proceed in three steps: a) we use statistical tools to establish a linkage between ERA-Interim upper-air atmospheric forecasts and

  8. Study on the standard of soil erosion gradation based on erosive daily rainfall (United States)

    Li, Gang; Ye, Suigao; Shen, Zhaowei; Lu, Fangchun; Zhang, Jinjuan


    This paper took Yuyao city as the research area. the daily rainfall data of 30-year was collected from the typical rainfall station. And the daily rainfall power function model was used to calculate the rainfall erosivity. The weight that the rainfall erosivity of the rainfall less than 30mm accounted for the total annual rainfall erosivity was calculated and analyzed. A method for soil erosion intensity gradation based on daily rainfall was proposed. At the same time, according to People’s Republic of China water conservancy industry standard “the standards for classification and gradation of soil erosion”, the weight value was used to establish the gradation standard of soil erosion intensity. The daily soil loss tolerance was 7 t/km2 calculated by this method.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Diego León Peláez


    amount and intensity of rainfall. In conclusion, oak forests showed the highest rainfall regulation capacity, followed by the pine plantation. In contrast, the cypress plantation had a very low rainfall regulation potential once that this forest type was characterized by high and fast water losses by deep drainage.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sisuru Sendanayake


    Full Text Available There are many correlations developed to predict incident solar radiation at a givenlocation developed based on geographical and meteorological parameters. However, allcorrelations depend on accurate measurement and availability of weather data such assunshine duration, cloud cover, relative humidity, maximum and minimumtemperatures etc, which essentially is a costly exercise in terms of equipment andlabour. Sri Lanka being a tropical island of latitudinal change of only 30 along thelength of the country, the meteorological factors govern the amount of incidentradiation. Considering the cloud formation and wind patterns over Sri Lanka as well asthe seasonal rainfall patterns, it can be observed that the mean number of rainy dayscan be used to predict the monthly average daily global radiation which can be used forcalculations in solar related activities conveniently.

  11. East coast lows, atmospheric blocking and rainfall: A Tasmanian perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pook, Michael; Risbey, James; McIntosh, Peter, E-mail: Mike.Pook@csiro.a [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (A partnership between CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology), Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tasmania 7000 (Australia)


    Although the term 'east coast low' is normally associated with intense cyclones near the east coast of mainland Australia, cutoff lows of similar type also affect Tasmania. This paper demonstrates that the cutoff low is a major source of rainfall for the agricultural districts and water catchments of eastern Tasmania. In particular, an analysis of synoptic systems and daily rainfall reveals that cutoff lows are responsible for almost 50% of April to October rainfall in parts of the northeast and a slightly lower proportion in the southeast. The other large contribution to rainfall is from frontal systems but the relative effects of the various synoptic types vary widely across the state as a result of the complex topography. Cutoff lows commonly form the cyclonic portion of a blocking dipole which can have opposing influences on Tasmanian rainfall. The high latitude anticyclone suppresses rainfall in western and southwestern Tasmania, while the cutting off of a relatively small cyclonic component equatorwards of the high frequently results in enhanced rainfall over eastern Tasmania. Results from two climate models indicate that the accurate simulation of blocking and cutoff lows remains difficult to achieve and this has implications for projections of Tasmanian rainfall on seasonal and longer time scales.

  12. Potential of satellite rainfall products to predict Niger River flood events in Niamey (United States)

    Casse, C.; Gosset, M.; Peugeot, C.; Pedinotti, V.; Boone, A.; Tanimoun, B. A.; Decharme, B.


    A dramatic increase in the frequency and intensity of flood events in the city of Niamey, Niger, has been observed in the last decade. The Niger River exhibits a double outflow peak in Niamey. The first peak, is due to the rainfall occurring within about 500 km of Niamey. It has reached high values in recent years and caused four drastic flood events since 2000. This paper analyses the potential of satellite rainfall products combined with hydrological modelling to monitor these floods. The study focuses on the 125,000 km2 area in the vicinity of Niamey, where local runoff supplies the first flood. Six rainfall products are tested : a gauge only product - the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC); two gauge adjusted satellite products - the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Multi-Platform Analysis (TMPA 3B42v7) and the CPC regional product African Rainfall Estimate (RFE version 2); and three satellite only products, 3B42RT, the CPC Morphing method (CMORPH) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN). The products are first inter-compared over the region of interest. Differences in terms of rainfall amount, number of rainy days, spacial extension of the rainfall events and frequency distribution of the rain rates are highlighted. The satellite only products provide more rain than the gauge adjusted ones. The hydrological model ISBA-TRIP is forced with the six products and the simulated discharge is analysed and compared with the discharge observed in Niamey over the period 2000 to 2013. The simulations based on the satellite only rainfall produce an excess in the discharge. For flood prediction, the problem can be overcome by a prior adjustment of the products - as done here with probability matching - or by analysing the simulated discharge in terms of percentile or anomaly. All tested products exhibit some skills in detecting the relatively heavy rainfall that preceded the flood and in

  13. Rainfall Estimation over the Nile Basin using Multi-Spectral, Multi- Instrument Satellite Techniques (United States)

    Habib, E.; Kuligowski, R.; Sazib, N.; Elshamy, M.; Amin, D.; Ahmed, M.


    Management of Egypt's Aswan High Dam is critical not only for flood control on the Nile but also for ensuring adequate water supplies for most of Egypt since rainfall is scarce over the vast majority of its land area. However, reservoir inflow is driven by rainfall over Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, and several other countries from which routine rain gauge data are sparse. Satellite- derived estimates of rainfall offer a much more detailed and timely set of data to form a basis for decisions on the operation of the dam. A single-channel infrared (IR) algorithm is currently in operational use at the Egyptian Nile Forecast Center (NFC). In this study, the authors report on the adaptation of a multi-spectral, multi-instrument satellite rainfall estimation algorithm (Self- Calibrating Multivariate Precipitation Retrieval, SCaMPR) for operational application by NFC over the Nile Basin. The algorithm uses a set of rainfall predictors that come from multi-spectral Infrared cloud top observations and self-calibrate them to a set of predictands that come from the more accurate, but less frequent, Microwave (MW) rain rate estimates. For application over the Nile Basin, the SCaMPR algorithm uses multiple satellite IR channels that have become recently available to NFC from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). Microwave rain rates are acquired from multiple sources such as the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E), and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). The algorithm has two main steps: rain/no-rain separation using discriminant analysis, and rain rate estimation using stepwise linear regression. We test two modes of algorithm calibration: real- time calibration with continuous updates of coefficients with newly coming MW rain rates, and calibration using static

  14. Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas (United States)

    Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Conrad, Olaf; Böhner, Jürgen; Kawohl, Tobias; Kreft, Holger; Soria-Auza, Rodrigo Wilber; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Linder, H. Peter; Kessler, Michael


    High-resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) data of downscaled model output temperature and precipitation estimates of the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The temperature algorithm is based on statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperatures. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors including wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, with a subsequent bias correction. The resulting data consist of a monthly temperature and precipitation climatology for the years 1979-2013. We compare the data derived from the CHELSA algorithm with other standard gridded products and station data from the Global Historical Climate Network. We compare the performance of the new climatologies in species distribution modelling and show that we can increase the accuracy of species range predictions. We further show that CHELSA climatological data has a similar accuracy as other products for temperature, but that its predictions of precipitation patterns are better.

  15. High-speed interconnection for storage area networks (United States)

    Liu, ZhaoBin; Xie, Changsheng; Wu, Fei; Fu, Xianglin


    The steady and fast increase of data intensive application is violently driving the demand for more data storage capacity and new storage architecture. The server-attached storage approach is being replaced by storage area networks (SANs), whose primary purpose is the transfer of data between computer systems and storage elements or among storage elements, allowing storage devices to be shared among multiple servers. In this paper, we mainly analyze the different characters of Fibre Channel, iSCSI and InfiniBand used within the SANs environment. This paper discusses the issues of protocol performance, protocol scalability, the security mechanism, the interoperability and adaptability with SAN environments, the cost of investment of each architecture and so on. Comparing the performance of traditional direct attached storage, the findings show that all Fibre Channel, InfiniBand and iSCSI are the competent gigabit networking technology for storage area networks. Each protocol has its own advantages and disadvantages. Due to the overwhelming benefits of economy, covenience and high performance/cost ratio, more enterprise can deploy iSCSI SAN based on mature and existing TCP/IP infrastructure.

  16. Radioactivity in the groundwater of a high background radiation area. (United States)

    Shabana, E I; Kinsara, A A


    Natural radioactivity was measured in groundwater samples collected from 37 wells scattered in an inhabited area of high natural background radiation, in a purpose of radiation protection. The study area is adjacent to Aja heights of granitic composition in Hail province, Saudi Arabia. Initial screening for gross α and gross β activities showed levels exceeded the national regulation limits set out for gross α and gross β activities in drinking water. The gross α activity ranged from 0.17 to 5.41 Bq L(-)(1) with an average value of 2.15 Bq L(-)(1), whereas gross β activity ranged from 0.48 to 5.16 Bq L(-)(1), with an average value of 2.60 Bq L(-)(1). The detail analyses indicated that the groundwater of this province is contaminated with uranium and radium ((226)Ra and (228)Ra). The average activity concentrations of (238)U, (234)U, (226)Ra and (228)Ra were 0.40, 0.77, 0.29 and 0.46 Bq L(-)(1), respectively. The higher uranium content was found in the samples of granitic aquifers, whereas the higher radium content was found in the samples of sandstone aquifers. Based on the obtained results, mechanism of leaching of the predominant radionuclides has been discussed in detail. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. The spatial extent of rainfall events and its relation to precipitation scaling (United States)

    Lochbihler, Kai; Lenderink, Geert; Siebesma, A. Pier


    Observations show that subdaily precipitation extremes increase with dew point temperature at a rate exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. The understanding of this so-called super CC scaling is still incomplete, and observations of convective cell properties could provide important information. Here the size and intensity of rain cells are investigated by using a tracking of rainfall events in high-resolution radar data. Higher intensities are accompanied by larger rainfall areas. However, whereas small rain cells mainly follow CC scaling, larger cells display super CC behavior. Even more, for dew point exceeding 15°C, the rain cell size has to increase in order to sustain super CC scaling and a remarked increase in rain cell area is found. Our results imply that the source area of moisture, the cloud size, and the degree of mesoscale organization play key roles in the context of a warming climate.

  18. Can we improve streamflow simulation by using higher resolution rainfall information? (United States)

    Lobligeois, Florent; Andréassian, Vazken; Perrin, Charles


    corrected and adjusted with both hourly and daily raingauge data. Based on this new high resolution product, we propose a framework to evaluate the improvements in streamflow simulation by using higher resolution rainfall information. Semi-distributed modelling is performed for different spatial resolution of precipitation forcing: from lumped to semi-distributed simulations. Here we do not work on synthetic (simulated) streamflow, but with actual measurements, on a large set of 181 French catchments representing a variety of size and climate. The rainfall-runoff model is re-calibrated for each resolution of rainfall spatial distribution over a 5-year sub-period and evaluated on the complementary sub-period in validation mode. The results are analysed by catchment classes based on catchment area and for various types of rainfall events based on the spatial variability of precipitation. References Ajami, N. K., Gupta, H. V, Wagener, T. & Sorooshian, S. (2004) Calibration of a semi-distributed hydrologic model for streamflow estimation along a river system. Journal of Hydrology 298(1-4), 112-135. Andréassian, V., Oddos, A., Michel, C., Anctil, F., Perrin, C. & Loumagne, C. (2004) Impact of spatial aggregation of inputs and parameters on the efficiency of rainfall-runoff models: A theoretical study using chimera watersheds. Water Resources Research 40(5), 1-9.

  19. Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall (United States)

    Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri


    This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

  20. Radar rainfall image repair techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen M. Wesson


    Full Text Available There are various quality problems associated with radar rainfall data viewed in images that include ground clutter, beam blocking and anomalous propagation, to name a few. To obtain the best rainfall estimate possible, techniques for removing ground clutter (non-meteorological echoes that influence radar data quality on 2-D radar rainfall image data sets are presented here. These techniques concentrate on repairing the images in both a computationally fast and accurate manner, and are nearest neighbour techniques of two sub-types: Individual Target and Border Tracing. The contaminated data is estimated through Kriging, considered the optimal technique for the spatial interpolation of Gaussian data, where the 'screening effect' that occurs with the Kriging weighting distribution around target points is exploited to ensure computational efficiency. Matrix rank reduction techniques in combination with Singular Value Decomposition (SVD are also suggested for finding an efficient solution to the Kriging Equations which can cope with near singular systems. Rainfall estimation at ground level from radar rainfall volume scan data is of interest and importance in earth bound applications such as hydrology and agriculture. As an extension of the above, Ordinary Kriging is applied to three-dimensional radar rainfall data to estimate rainfall rate at ground level. Keywords: ground clutter, data infilling, Ordinary Kriging, nearest neighbours, Singular Value Decomposition, border tracing, computation time, ground level rainfall estimation

  1. Leaf Area Index Retrieval Using High Resolution Remote Sensing Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele Rinaldi


    Full Text Available Vegetation indices obtained from remote sensed data can be used to characterize crop canopy on a large scale using a non-destructive method. With the recent launch of the IKONOS satellite, very high spatial resolution (1 meter images are available for the detailed monitoring of ecosystems as well as for precision agriculture. The aim of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of leaf area index (LAI retrieval over agricultural area that can be obtained by empirical relationships between different spectral vegetation indices (VI and LAI measured on three different dates over the spring-summer period of 2008, in the Capitanata plain (Southern Italy. All the VIs used (NDVI, RDVI, WDVI, MSAVI and GEMI were related to the LAI through exponential regression functions, either global or crop-dependent. In the first case, LAI was estimated with comparable accuracies for all VIs employed, with a slightly higher accuracy for GEMI, which determination coefficient achieved the value of 0.697. Whereas the LAI regression functions were calculated separately for each crop, the WDVI, GEMI and RDVI vegetation indices provided the highest determination coefficients with values close to 0.90 for wheat and sugar beet, and with values close to 0.70 for tomatoes. A validation of the models was carried out with a selection of independent sampling data. The validation confirmed that WDVI and GEMI were the VIs that provided the highest LAI retrieval accuracies, with RMSE values of about to 1.1 m2 m-2. The exponential functions, calibrated and validated to calculate LAI from GEMI, were used to derive LAI maps from IKONOS high-resolution remote sensing images with good accuracy. These maps can be used as input variables for crop growth models, obtaining relevant information that can be useful in agricultural management strategies (in particular irrigation and fertilization, as well as in the application of precision farming.

  2. A spatio-temporal evaluation of the WRF physical parameterisations for numerical rainfall simulation in semi-humid and semi-arid catchments of Northern China (United States)

    Tian, Jiyang; Liu, Jia; Wang, Jianhua; Li, Chuanzhe; Yu, Fuliang; Chu, Zhigang


    Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction systems can provide rainfall products at high resolutions in space and time, playing an increasingly more important role in water management and flood forecasting. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is one of the most popular mesoscale systems and has been extensively used in research and practice. However, for hydrologists, an unsolved question must be addressed before each model application in a different target area. That is, how are the most appropriate combinations of physical parameterisations from the vast WRF library selected to provide the best downscaled rainfall? In this study, the WRF model was applied with 12 designed parameterisation schemes with different combinations of physical parameterisations, including microphysics, radiation, planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and cumulus parameterisations. The selected study areas are two semi-humid and semi-arid catchments located in the Daqinghe River basin, Northern China. The performance of WRF with different parameterisation schemes is tested for simulating eight typical 24-h storm events with different evenness in space and time. In addition to the cumulative rainfall amount, the spatial and temporal patterns of the simulated rainfall are evaluated based on a two-dimensional composed verification statistic. Among the 12 parameterisation schemes, Scheme 4 outperforms the other schemes with the best average performance in simulating rainfall totals and temporal patterns; in contrast, Scheme 6 is generally a good choice for simulations of spatial rainfall distributions. Regarding the individual parameterisations, Single-Moment 6 (WSM6), Yonsei University (YSU), Kain-Fritsch (KF) and Grell-Devenyi (GD) are better choices for microphysics, planetary boundary layers (PBL) and cumulus parameterisations, respectively, in the study area. These findings provide helpful information for WRF rainfall downscaling in semi-humid and semi

  3. Intraseasonal to interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall and its influence on the Agricultural corps in mountainous Kashmir (United States)

    Hussain, Z.; Saeed, S.


    By using high resolution APHRODITE precipitation and meteorological station data (1961-2007) the present study examines the intraseasonal to interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall over mountainous Kashmir and its influence on the agricultural crops such as Maiz and Wheat. It is found that an intraseasonal to interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall can severely affect the crop production in the hilly areas of Kashmir. We found an increasing trend in the extreme precipitation events over Kashmir and adjacent areas in the recent years. The associated crop production shows significant decreasing trend especially over the hilly areas in Kashmir. The enhanced rainfall can result in the soil erosion that impose a major threat to sustainable agriculture in the mountainous areas of Kashmir. The heavy rainfall associated with the orographic uplifitng removes the uppermost fertile layer of soil, depleting fertility and leaving the soil in poor physical condition. This further causes severe deficiency of most important nutrients required for plant growth and crop yield. We further analysed the IPCC AR4 ECHAM5/MPIOM climate model simulations to examine the future interannual variability of monsoon rainfall over Kashmir and adjoining areas. In the following we analysed the transient run with a 1% per year increase in CO2 until reaching double concentrations and held constant thereafter. We found enhanced interannual variability of the summer monsoon rainfall (July-August) with increasing drought like conditions over Kashmir and adjoining northern parts of Pakistan in future climate. The enhanced interannual variability of precipitation in future could further affect severely growth of various agricultural crops in mountainous parts of Kashmir.

  4. Panel regressions to estimate low‐flow response to rainfall variability in ungaged basins

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bassiouni, Maoya; Vogel, Richard M; Archfield, Stacey A


    Multicollinearity and omitted‐variable bias are major limitations to developing multiple linear regression models to estimate streamflow characteristics in ungaged areas and varying rainfall conditions...

  5. Analysis of Rainfall induced landslides susceptibility along 50-110k section of the Southern Cross Island Highway in Taiwan (United States)

    Wu, Tzu-Chia; Chan, Hsun-Chuan; Hong, Yu-Jou


    Landslide located at the Southern Cross Island Highway, Taiwan damaged the natural environment and caused economic losses, damaged basic facilities, and resulted in human casualties in recent years. In order to reduce the reconstruction cost of broken roads, the study areas were chosen from mileage ranging from 50 to 110 kilometers and buffer range of 1,400 meters of the highway. The landslide susceptibilities along the highway were established. Two steps, the selection procedure and the model development procedure, have been used to establish landslide susceptibility model. The landslide inventories of the study area triggered by typhoon Mindulle, Morakot, and 0719 rainfall event, produced by the Central Geological Survey, were used for analyzing and modeling. In the selection procedure, the potential environmental factors, including the elevation, slope, slope aspect, slope high, lithology, terrain roughness, slope roughness, plan curvature, profile curvature, total curvature, distance of road, and distance of river, were selected as landslide causative factors. In order to select the factors efficiently, each factor was normalized from 0 to 1 to reduce the difference between the range of various factors. In the model development procedure, the Logistic regression method was used to establish the landslide susceptibility model. The classification error matrix and ROC-curve were used to evaluate the accuracy of landslide predicted by the developed model. The rainfall intensities of different rainfall durations were used as a landslide triggering factor in different rainfall events. The present model could predict landslide effectively. The overall accuracy of the three rainfall events was up to 70% or above. However, the predictions of Mindulle and 0719 rainfall event did not improve obviously by using landslide triggering factors, while the overall accuracy of Morakot event increased from 66.82% to 71.34%. The result suggests that if the rainfall event is long

  6. The effect of differences rainfall data duration and time period in the assessment of rainwater harvesting system performance for domestic water use (United States)

    Juliana, Imroatul C.; Kusuma, M. Syahril Badri; Cahyono, M.; Martokusumo, Widjaja; Kuntoro, Arno Adi


    One of the attempts to tackle the problem in water resources is to exploit the potential of rainwater volume with rainwater harvesting (RWH) system. A number of rainfall data required for analyzing the RWH system performance. In contrast, the availability of rainfall data is occasionally difficult to obtain. The main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of difference rainfall data duration and time period to assess the RWH system performance. An analysis was conducted on the rainfall data based on rainfall data duration and time period. The analysis was performed considering 15, 5, 3, 2 years, average year, wet year, and dry year for Palembang city in South Sumatera. The RWH system performance is calculated based on the concept of yield before spillage algorithm. A number of scenarios were conducted by varying the tank capacity, roof area, and the rainwater demand. It was observed that the use of data with a smaller duration provides a significant difference, especially for high rainwater demand. In addition, the use of daily rainfall data would describe th e behavior of the system more thoroughly. As for time step, the use of monthly rainfall data is only sufficient for low rainwater demand and bigger tank capacity.

  7. Simulation of the diurnal variation of rainfall over the western Maritime Continent using a regional climate model (United States)

    Im, Eun-Soon; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.


    This study evaluates the performance of the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) in simulating the temporal and spatial structure of the diurnal variation of rainfall over the western Maritime Continent. In order to investigate the effect of model resolution, two identical simulations with 27 and 12 km horizontal resolutions are performed for a 30-year period (1982-2011). The simulated climatological features are compared with the TRMM 3B42 3-h observations. The analysis is focused on the regional characteristics of diurnal variation of rainfall in terms of phase and amplitude, with an emphasis on the difference in behaviors between land and ocean. Systematic modulation of the diurnal cycle over land and ocean characterizes the rainfall pattern over the Maritime Continent. The evening peak with strong amplitude over land and the morning peak with weak amplitude over ocean reflect the contrast in behavior between land and ocean. In general, both simulations are able to capture major features of diurnal rainfall variations with similarity in several aspects to TRMM observation. However, the improvement from increasing resolution is more apparent in the coastal and offshore areas, where rainfall processes are strongly tied with low-level wind that varies diurnally and regionally. A more realistic coastline and a sharp gradient of elevation derived from high resolution boundary conditions enhance the local circulation associated with land-sea breeze and topographic complexity, which in turn induces a favorable condition for the offshore convergence and associated rainfall occurrence. The MRCM with 12 km resolution simulates propagation of rainfall from inland to coastal or offshore areas, such as in the vicinity of western Sumatra, northern Java, and western Borneo Islands. However, further improvements can be gained from even higher resolution models, such as convection-permitting scale.

  8. Large-scale rainfall characteristics around the Japan Islands in East Asia relating to the typhoon approach near late autumn (A case study for Ty1326 comparing with the cases in the midsummer and "autumn rainfall" seasons) (United States)

    Kato, Kuranoshin; Kojima, Yumi; Matsumoto, Kengo; Otani, Kazuo


    The tropical cyclones, called the typhoons around East Asia, the hurricanes around North America, and so on, develop through the CISK mechanism and their rainfall systems are characterized basically by the organized ensemble of deep convective clouds. However, although the intense typhoons with wide strong-wind area sometimes approach the Japan Islands in mid-latitude from summer to late autumn, the large-scale atmospheric fields there including baroclinicity and stability for deep moist convection, etc., show rather rapid seasonal transition only in a few months, influenced greatly by the global-scale Asian monsoon. These would result in the seasonal variety of the large-scale rainfall characteristics, as well as the total precipitation, relating to the typhoon approach from summer to late autumn. In turn, detailed analyses of such rainfall variety in association with the typhoon approaches also could give us important information for understanding the seasonal cycles of the East Asian climate systems more deeply. Thus the present study examined a case in which a typhoon approached the eastern Japan around 15-16 October 2013 (near late autumn, Ty1326), comparing with those in the midsummer and "autumn rainfall" seasons (Ty1112 and Ty1115, which approached the Japan Islands around 2-4 September 2011 and around 19-21 September 2011, respectively). 10-minutes precipitation data at the meteorological stations by the JMA, the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data at the grid points with every 2.5 degrees latitude/longitude interval and so on, were mainly used for analysis. During the stage when Ty1112 passed northward around the western Japan along the western edge of the North Pacific high, the Japan Islands area was covered with very warm and moist air mass, and the stratification for deep moist convection was rather unstable. Besides, the strong low-level S-ly wind area toward the northern frontal zone extended widely to the east of the typhoon center. In this case, many

  9. Southern Tunisia: A still high endemicity area for hepatitis A. (United States)

    Neffatti, Houcine; Lebraud, Patricia; Hottelet, Corinne; Gharbi, Jawher; Challouf, Taieb; Roque-Afonso, Anne-Marie


    Hepatitis A (HAV) and E (HEV) viruses are responsible for enterically transmitted hepatitis. Tunisia is reported to be of intermediate endemicity for HAV and of low seroprevalence for HEV; however, data from rural areas of South Tunisia are lacking. Sera from 216 asymptomatic pregnant women and from 92 patients with acute hepatitis were collected between October 2014 and November 2015. Total and IgM anti-HAV immunoglobulins and anti-HEV IgG and IgM were investigated. Anti-HAV IgM-positive samples were subjected to RT-PCR targeting the VP1/2A region and sequenced. HEV IgM positive samples and all samples from acute hepatitis patients were assessed for HEV RNA. Among pregnant women (mean age 32+/-8), HAV seroprevalence was 98.6%, none presented anti-HAV IgM; HEV seroprevalence was 5.1% and three presented weakly reactive anti-HEV IgM without detectable RNA. Among acute hepatitis patients (mean age 18.5 +/- 14), HEV seroprevalence was 19,5%, none presented anti-HEV IgM, nor HEV RNA. HAV seroprevalence exceeded 90% by age 5 and acute HAV infection was detected in 20 patients (21,7%), younger than patients with other hepatitis causes (9,8 years vs. 20,4 years, p = 0,004); 65% were male. Most acute HAV infections were observed in a coastal area where HAV infections represented 52% of hepatitis etiology. Phylogenetic analysis identified genotype IA strains, clustering close to previously published Tunisian sequences. The present study confirmed a low HEV endemicity and evidenced a still high level of HAV circulation in Southern Tunisia, suggesting distinct dissemination patterns for these viruses.

  10. Southern Tunisia: A still high endemicity area for hepatitis A.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Houcine Neffatti

    Full Text Available Hepatitis A (HAV and E (HEV viruses are responsible for enterically transmitted hepatitis. Tunisia is reported to be of intermediate endemicity for HAV and of low seroprevalence for HEV; however, data from rural areas of South Tunisia are lacking.Sera from 216 asymptomatic pregnant women and from 92 patients with acute hepatitis were collected between October 2014 and November 2015. Total and IgM anti-HAV immunoglobulins and anti-HEV IgG and IgM were investigated. Anti-HAV IgM-positive samples were subjected to RT-PCR targeting the VP1/2A region and sequenced. HEV IgM positive samples and all samples from acute hepatitis patients were assessed for HEV RNA.Among pregnant women (mean age 32+/-8, HAV seroprevalence was 98.6%, none presented anti-HAV IgM; HEV seroprevalence was 5.1% and three presented weakly reactive anti-HEV IgM without detectable RNA. Among acute hepatitis patients (mean age 18.5 +/- 14, HEV seroprevalence was 19,5%, none presented anti-HEV IgM, nor HEV RNA. HAV seroprevalence exceeded 90% by age 5 and acute HAV infection was detected in 20 patients (21,7%, younger than patients with other hepatitis causes (9,8 years vs. 20,4 years, p = 0,004; 65% were male. Most acute HAV infections were observed in a coastal area where HAV infections represented 52% of hepatitis etiology. Phylogenetic analysis identified genotype IA strains, clustering close to previously published Tunisian sequences.The present study confirmed a low HEV endemicity and evidenced a still high level of HAV circulation in Southern Tunisia, suggesting distinct dissemination patterns for these viruses.

  11. Sunspot numbers: Implications on Eastern African rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Gachari


    Full Text Available Following NASA's prediction of sunspot numbers for the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, we now include sunspot numbers as an explanatory variable in a statistical model. This model is based on fitting monthly rainfall values with factors and covariates obtained from solarlunar geometry values and sunspot numbers. The model demonstrates high predictive skill in estimating monthly values by achieving a correlation coefficient of 0.9 between model estimates and the measurements. Estimates for monthly total rainfall for the period from 1901 to 2020 for Kenya indicate that the model can be used not only to estimate historical values of rainfall, but also to predict monthly total rainfall. We have found that the 11-year solar sunspot cycle has an influence on the frequency and timing of extreme hydrology events in Kenya, with these events occurring every 5-2 years after the turning points of sunspot cycles. While solar declination is the major driver of monthly variability, sunspots and the lunar declinations play a role in the annual variability and may have influenced the occurrence of the Sahelian drought of the mid-1980s that affected the Sahel region including the Greater Horn of Africa. Judging from the reflection symmetry, the trend of the current maximum and the turning point of the sunspot minimum at the end of the Modern Maximum, with a 95% level of confidence, drought conditions similar to those of the early 1920s may reoccur in the year 2020:2.

  12. Relationships between atmospheric circulation indices and rainfall in Northern Algeria and comparison of observed and RCM-generated rainfall (United States)

    Taibi, S.; Meddi, M.; Mahé, G.; Assani, A.


    This work aims, as a first step, to analyze rainfall variability in Northern Algeria, in particular extreme events, during the period from 1940 to 2010. Analysis of annual rainfall shows that stations in the northwest record a significant decrease in rainfall since the 1970s. Frequencies of rainy days for each percentile (5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th) and each rainfall interval class (1-5, 5-10, 10-20, 20-50, and ≥50 mm) do not show a significant change in the evolution of daily rainfall. The Tenes station is the only one to show a significant decrease in the frequency of rainy days up to the 75th percentile and for the 10-20-mm interval class. There is no significant change in the temporal evolution of extreme events in the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. The relationships between rainfall variability and general atmospheric circulation indices for interannual and extreme event variability are moderately influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Mediterranean Oscillation. Significant correlations are observed between the Southern Oscillation Index and annual rainfall in the northwestern part of the study area, which is likely linked with the decrease in rainfall in this region. Seasonal rainfall in Northern Algeria is affected by the Mediterranean Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in the west. The ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) are assessed using the bias method to test their ability to reproduce rainfall variability at different time scales. The Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETHZ), and Forschungszentrum Geesthacht (GKSS) models yield the least biased results.

  13. Hydrologic and Erosional Response to Natural Rainfall and Effects of Conservation and Rehabilitation Measures in a Degraded Dry Sub-Humid Watershed of the Ethiopian Highlands (United States)

    McHugh, O. V.; Liu, B. M.; Steenhuis, T. S.


    A good understanding of runoff and erosion under actual field conditions is essential for effective planning of land conservation in the Ethiopian highlands. Hydrologic and sediment yield response to natural rainfall was measured during 3 rainy seasons (2003-2004) at plot and catchment scales with and without conservation practices. Results show that as expected surface runoff generation and erosion rates are significantly influenced by rainfall intensity, land use, scale of measurement, land slope, and the presence or not of conservation measures. Seasonal runoff coefficient and sediment yield were significantly better correlated to number of storms with high 30-minute maximum rainfall intensity (I30 > 20 mm h-1) than to total seasonal rainfall depth. Under conventional management systems cropland on slopes greater than 3 % generated significantly more (over twice) surface runoff and sediment yield compared with shrub and open forest grazing land on steep slopes (34 %). Plot measured surface runoff coefficients (for crop and grazing land uses which cover over 90 % of the catchment area) exceeded total catchment streamflow discharge demonstrating a scale effect. The observed scale effect, a stronger correlation of runoff with maximum rainfall intensity than rainfall depth and average rainfall intensity, and observed significant increases in runoff with steeper land slopes indicate that Hortonian overland flow is the primary runoff generation mechanism in the study zone. Concerning slope effects, cropland on mild slopes produced relatively low seasonal sediment yields (land preparation practice. However, sediment yield was drastically high (up to 35 t ha-1) on steep slopes (9 -11 %) especially during seasons with several high intensity rainfall events. The community protected open forest grazing area soil loss was low at sustainable levels (land exceeded sustainable soil loss rates (7.4 t ha-1 season-1) during a season with high intensity rainfall. Gully

  14. Radar subpixel-scale rainfall variability and uncertainty: lessons learned from observations of a dense rain-gauge network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Peleg


    Full Text Available Runoff and flash flood generation are very sensitive to rainfall's spatial and temporal variability. The increasing use of radar and satellite data in hydrological applications, due to the sparse distribution of rain gauges over most catchments worldwide, requires furthering our knowledge of the uncertainties of these data. In 2011, a new super-dense network of rain gauges containing 14 stations, each with two side-by-side gauges, was installed within a 4 km2 study area near Kibbutz Galed in northern Israel. This network was established for a detailed exploration of the uncertainties and errors regarding rainfall variability within a common pixel size of data obtained from remote sensing systems for timescales of 1 min to daily. In this paper, we present the analysis of the first year's record collected from this network and from the Shacham weather radar, located 63 km from the study area. The gauge–rainfall spatial correlation and uncertainty were examined along with the estimated radar error. The nugget parameter of the inter-gauge rainfall correlations was high (0.92 on the 1 min scale and increased as the timescale increased. The variance reduction factor (VRF, representing the uncertainty from averaging a number of rain stations per pixel, ranged from 1.6% for the 1 min timescale to 0.07% for the daily scale. It was also found that at least three rain stations are needed to adequately represent the rainfall (VRF < 5% on a typical radar pixel scale. The difference between radar and rain gauge rainfall was mainly attributed to radar estimation errors, while the gauge sampling error contributed up to 20% to the total difference. The ratio of radar rainfall to gauge-areal-averaged rainfall, expressed by the error distribution scatter parameter, decreased from 5.27 dB for 3 min timescale to 3.21 dB for the daily scale. The analysis of the radar errors and uncertainties suggest that a temporal scale of at least 10 min should be used for

  15. Identification of homogeneous rainfall regimes in parts of Western ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 116; Issue 4. Identification ... The study area comprises of one coastal district and its adjoining areas in Karnataka State. Mean annual rainfall data of 93 rain gauge stations distributed over the study area for a period of 10–50 years are used for the study. In order to ...

  16. Rainfall variability in the Himalayan orogen and its relevance to erosion processes (United States)

    Deal, Eric; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Braun, Jean


    Rainfall is an important driver of erosion processes. The mean rainfall rate is often used to account for the erosive impact of a particular climate. However, for some erosion processes, erosion rate is a nonlinear function of rainfall, e.g., due to a threshold for erosion. When this is the case, it is important to take into account the full distribution of rainfall, instead of just the mean. In light of this, we have characterized the variability of daily rainfall over the Himalayan orogen using high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall data sets. We find significant variations in rainfall variability over the Himalayan orogen, with increasing rainfall variability to the west and north of the orogen. By taking into account variability of rainfall in addition to mean rainfall rate, we find a pattern of rainfall that, from a geomorphological perspective, is significantly different from mean rainfall rate alone. Using these findings, we argue that short-term rainfall variability may help explain observed short and long-term erosion rates in the Himalayan orogen.

  17. Crop area estimation using high and medium resolution satellite imagery in areas with complex topography (United States)

    Husak, G. J.; Marshall, M. T.; Michaelsen, J.; Pedreros, D.; Funk, C.; Galu, G.


    Reliable estimates of cropped area (CA) in developing countries with chronic food shortages are essential for emergency relief and the design of appropriate market-based food security programs. Satellite interpretation of CA is an effective alternative to extensive and costly field surveys, which fail to represent the spatial heterogeneity at the country-level. Bias-corrected, texture based classifications show little deviation from actual crop inventories, when estimates derived from aerial photographs or field measurements are used to remove systematic errors in medium resolution estimates. In this paper, we demonstrate a hybrid high-medium resolution technique for Central Ethiopia that combines spatially limited unbiased estimates from IKONOS images, with spatially extensive Landsat ETM+ interpretations, land-cover, and SRTM-based topography. Logistic regression is used to derive the probability of a location being crop. These individual points are then aggregated to produce regional estimates of CA. District-level analysis of Landsat based estimates showed CA totals which supported the estimates of the Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Development. Continued work will evaluate the technique in other parts of Africa, while segmentation algorithms will be evaluated, in order to automate classification of medium resolution imagery for routine CA estimation in the future.

  18. High resolution modelling of extreme precipitation events in urban areas (United States)

    Siemerink, Martijn; Volp, Nicolette; Schuurmans, Wytze; Deckers, Dave


    The present day society needs to adjust to the effects of climate change. More extreme weather conditions are expected, which can lead to longer periods of drought, but also to more extreme precipitation events. Urban water systems are not designed for such extreme events. Most sewer systems are not able to drain the excessive storm water, causing urban flooding. This leads to high economic damage. In order to take appropriate measures against extreme urban storms, detailed knowledge about the behaviour of the urban water system above and below the streets is required. To investigate the behaviour of urban water systems during extreme precipitation events new assessment tools are necessary. These tools should provide a detailed and integral description of the flow in the full domain of overland runoff, sewer flow, surface water flow and groundwater flow. We developed a new assessment tool, called 3Di, which provides detailed insight in the urban water system. This tool is based on a new numerical methodology that can accurately deal with the interaction between overland runoff, sewer flow and surface water flow. A one-dimensional model for the sewer system and open channel flow is fully coupled to a two-dimensional depth-averaged model that simulates the overland flow. The tool uses a subgrid-based approach in order to take high resolution information of the sewer system and of the terrain into account [1, 2]. The combination of using the high resolution information and the subgrid based approach results in an accurate and efficient modelling tool. It is now possible to simulate entire urban water systems using extreme high resolution (0.5m x 0.5m) terrain data in combination with a detailed sewer and surface water network representation. The new tool has been tested in several Dutch cities, such as Rotterdam, Amsterdam and The Hague. We will present the results of an extreme precipitation event in the city of Schiedam (The Netherlands). This city deals with

  19. Impact of merging methods on radar based nowcasting of rainfall (United States)

    Shehu, Bora; Haberlandt, Uwe


    Radar data with high spatial and temporal resolution are commonly used to track and predict rainfall patterns that serve as input for hydrological applications. To mitigate the high errors associated with the radar, many merging methods employing ground measurements have been developed. However these methods have been investigated mainly for simulation purposes, while for nowcasting they are limited to the application of the mean field bias correction. Therefore this study aims to investigate the impact of different merging methods on the nowcasting of the rainfall volumes regarding urban floods. Radar bias correction based on mean fields and quantile mapping are analyzed individually and also are implemented in conditional merging. Special attention is given to the impact of spatial and temporal filters on the predictive skill of all methods. The relevance of the radar merging techniques is demonstrated by comparing the performance of the forecasted rainfall field from the radar tracking algorithm HyRaTrac for both raw and merged radar data. For this purpose several extreme events are selected and the respective performance is evaluated by cross validation of the continuous criteria (bias and rmse) and categorical criteria (POD, FAR and GSS) for lead times up to 2 hours. The study area is located within the 128 km radius of Hannover radar in Lower Saxony, Germany and the data set constitutes of 80 recording stations in 5 min time steps for the period 2000-2012. The results reveal how the choice of merging method and the implementation of filters impacts the performance of the forecast algorithm.

  20. Observations of cloud and rainfall enhancement over irrigated agriculture in an arid environment (United States)

    Garcia-Carreras, Luis; Marsham, John H.; Spracklen, Dominick V.


    The impact of irrigated agriculture on clouds and rainfall remains uncertain, particularly in less studied arid regions. Irrigated crops account for 20% of global cropland area, and non-renewable groundwater accounts for 20% of global irrigation water demand. Quantifying the feedbacks between agriculture and the atmosphere are therefore not only necessary to better understand the climate impacts of land-use change, but are also crucial for predicting long-term water use in water-scarce regions. Here we use high spatial-resolution satellite data to show the impact of irrigated crops in the arid environment of northern Saudi Arabia on cloud cover and rainfall patterns. Land surface temperatures over the crops are 5-10 K lower than their surroundings, linked to evapotranspiration rates of up to 20 mm/ month. Daytime cloud cover is up to 30% higher over the cropland compared to its immediate surroundings, and this enhancement is highly correlated with the seasonal variability in leaf area index. The cloud enhancement is associated with a much more rapid cloud cloud development during the morning. Afternoon rainfall is 85% higher over, and just downwind, of the cropland during the growing season, although rainfall remains very low in absolute terms. The feedback sign we find is the opposite to what has been observed in tropical and semiarid regions, where temperature gradients promote convergence and clouds on the warmer side of land-surface type discontinuities. This suggests that different processes are responsible for the land-atmosphere feedback in very dry environments, where lack of moisture may be a stronger constraint. Increased cloud and rainfall, and associated increases in diffuse radiation and reductions in temperature, can affect vegetation growth thus producing an internal feedback. These effects will therefore need to be taken into account to properly assess the impact of climate change on crop productivity and water use, as well as how global land

  1. Identification of areas with high levels of untreated dental caries. (United States)

    Ellwood, R P; O'Mullane, D M


    In order to examine the geographical variation of dental health within 10 county districts in North Wales, 3538 children were examined. The associations between three demographic indicators, based on the 1981 OPCS census, and dental health outcomes were assessed for electoral wards within the county districts. The Townsend and Jarman indices were the first two indicators employed and the third was based on a mathematical model representing the variation in the mean number of untreated decayed surfaces per person for the wards. This model was developed using the children examined in the five most westerly county districts. Using the data derived from the five most easterly county districts, the three indicators were assessed. All three showed strong correlations (r > or = 0.88) with dental health. These results indicate that measures of dental health based on large administrative units may obscure variation within them. It is concluded that geographical methods of this type may be useful for targeting dental resources at small areas with high levels of need.

  2. Adjustment of rainfall estimates from weather radars using in-situ stormwater drainage sensors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahm, Malte

    The topic of this Ph.D. thesis is adjustment of weather radar rainfall measurements for urban drainage applications by the use of in-situ stormwater runoff measurements. It is possible to obtain the high spatiotemporal resolution rainfall data desired for advanced distributed urban drainage...... applications by the use of weather radars. Rainfall data representing the spatiotemporal distribution is a necessity for accurate modelling and real-time control of distributed urban drainage systems. Weather radar measurements are indirect measurements of the rainfall in the atmosphere, which poses some...... challenges for using the data in urban drainage applications. There are discrepancies between radar-rainfall measured in the atmosphere and the “true” rainfall at ground level. Consequently, radar-rainfall estimates are usually adjusted to rainfall observations at ground level from rain gauges. When radar...

  3. Long-term changes and variability in rainfall and streamflow in Luvuvhu River Catchment, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John O. Odiyo


    Full Text Available We investigated long-term changes and variability in daily rainfall and streamflow in the Luvuvhu River Catchment, South Africa. Changes and variability in rainfall and streamflow impact on available water resources and the allocation of these resources. Daily rainfall data for six stations and daily streamflow data for four stations for the period 1920/1921�2005/2006 were grouped into cycles of 5 and 10 years. Daily means and standard deviations were computed for each cycle. Standard deviation was used to define the rainfall and streamflow variability. Linear regression was used to compute trends in 5- and 10-year average rainfall and streamflow and their standard deviations. Paired two-tailed�t-tests (significance level of 0.05 were carried out to verify the spatial variability of rainfall and streamflow in the study area. Mann�Kendall and linear regression were used to determine trend analyses based on long-term annual rainfall and streamflow data. All but two rainfall stations showed decreasing trends in 5- and 10-year mean rainfall; 10-year mean daily rainfall showed decadal rainfall fluctuations. Contrasting trends were observed in 5- and 10-year mean streamflow, indicating that other factors such as anthropogenic activities and impoundments could be impacting on streamflow. Trend directions identified from Mann-Kendall and linear regression analyses of long-term annual rainfall and streamflow were similar to those identified by linear regression of 5- and 10-year mean daily rainfall. Results of paired two-tailed�t-tests verified the spatial variability of rainfall and streamflow in the study area. We have shown that the variability of rainfall and streamflow has increased in the Luvuvhu River Catchment over the 86-year study period.

  4. Effect of Slope, Rainfall Intensity and Mulch on Erosion and Infiltration under Simulated Rain on Purple Soil of South-Western Sichuan Province, China

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    Muhammad Naeem Khan


    Full Text Available Purple soil is widely distributed in the hilly areas of the Sichuan basin, southwest China, and is highly susceptible to water erosion. The triggering of this process is related to slope, rainfall intensity and surface cover. Therefore, this study assesses the effects of different simulated rainfall intensities with different slopes on hydrological and erosional processes in un-mulched and mulched purple soils. Results show that the sediment and water losses increased with an increase of rainfall intensity and slope steepness. Generally, the slope contribution (Sc on water and sediment losses decreased with increasing rainfall intensity and slope steepness under both un-mulched and mulched soil. In un-mulched conditions, water losses were independent of slope steepness (Sc < 50% during the highest rainfall intensity. However, in mulched soil, the higher contributions of slope (Sc and rainfall (Rc were found for water and sediment losses, respectively, i.e., >50%, except during the increase in slope steepness from 15° to 25° under the highest rainfall intensity (120 mm·h−1. The effectiveness of mulch was more pronounced in reducing sediment losses (81%–100% compared with water losses (14%–100%. The conservation effectiveness of mulch both decreased and increased with slope steepness for water and sediment losses, respectively, under higher rainfall intensities. Water infiltration and recharge coefficient (RC decreased with an increase of slope steepness, while with an increase in rainfall intensity, the water infiltration and RC were increased and decreased, respectively, in both un-mulched and mulched soil. On the other hand, mulched soil maintained a significantly (α = 0.05 higher infiltration capacity and RC compared to that of the un-mulched soil.

  5. Hydrological Modelling Using a Rainfall Simulator over an Experimental Hillslope Plot

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    Arpit Chouksey


    Full Text Available Hydrological processes are complex to compute in hilly areas when compared to plain areas. The governing processes behind runoff generation on hillslopes are subsurface storm flow, saturation excess flow, overland flow, return flow and pipe storage. The simulations of the above processes in the soil matrix require detailed hillslope hydrological modelling. In the present study, a hillslope experimental plot has been designed to study the runoff generation processes on the plot scale. The setup is designed keeping in view the natural hillslope conditions prevailing in the Northwestern Himalayas, India where high intensity rainfall events occur frequently. A rainfall simulator was installed over the experimental hillslope plot to generate rainfall with an intensity of 100 mm/h, which represents the dominating rainfall intensity range in the region. Soil moisture sensors were also installed at variable depths from 100 to 1000 mm at different locations of the plot to observe the soil moisture regime. From the experimental observations it was found that once the soil is saturated, it remains at field capacity for the next 24–36 h. Such antecedent moisture conditions are most favorable for the generation of rapid stormflow from hillslopes. A dye infiltration test was performed on the undisturbed soil column to observe the macropore fraction variability over the vegetated hillslopes. The estimated macropore fractions are used as essential input for the hillslope hydrological model. The main objective of the present study was to develop and test a method for estimating runoff responses from natural rainfall over hillslopes of the Northwestern Himalayas using a portable rainfall simulator. Using the experimental data and the developed conceptual model, the overland flow and the subsurface flow through a macropore-dominated area have been estimated/analyzed. The surface and subsurface runoff estimated using the developed hillslope hydrological model

  6. Development of a landlside EWS based on rainfall thresholds for Tuscany Region, Italy (United States)

    Rosi, Ascanio; Segoni, Samuele; Battistini, Alessandro; Rossi, Guglielmo; Catani, Filippo; Casagli, Nicola


    We present the set-up of a landslide EWS based on rainfall thresholds for the Tuscany region (central Italy), that shows a heterogeneous distribution of reliefs and precipitation. The work started with the definition of a single set of thresholds for the whole region, but it resulted unsuitable for EWS purposes, because of the heterogeneity of the Tuscan territory and non-repeatability of the analyses, that were affected by a high degree of subjectivity. To overcome this problem, the work started from the implementation of a software capable of objectively defining the rainfall thresholds, since some of the main issues of these thresholds are the subjectivity of the analysis and therefore their non-repeatability. This software, named MaCumBA, is largely automated and can analyze, in a short time, a high number of rainfall events to define several parameters of the threshold, such as the intensity (I) and the duration (D) of the rainfall event, the no-rain time gap (NRG: how many hours without rain are needed to consider two events as separated) and the equation describing the threshold. The possibility of quickly perform several analyses lead to the decision to divide the territory in 25 homogeneous areas (named alert zones, AZ), so as a single threshold for each AZ could be defined. For the definition of the thresholds two independent datasets (of joint rainfall-landslide occurrences) have been used: a calibration dataset (data from 2000 to 2007) and a validation dataset (2008-2009). Once the thresholds were defined, a WebGIS-based EWS has been implemented. In this system it is possible to focus both on monitoring of real-time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h; forecasting data are collected from LAMI (Limited Area Model Italy) rainfall forecasts. The EWS works on the basis of the threshold parameters defined by MaCumBA (I, D, NRG). An important feature of the warning system is that the visualization of the thresholds in the Web

  7. NEXRAD Rainfall Data: Eureka, California (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 (WSR-88D) measurements were used to support AMSR-E rainfall validation efforts in Eureka, California,...

  8. Assessing the impact of African wetlands on rainfall (United States)

    Taylor, Christopher; Dadson, Simon; Prigent, Catherine


    Wetlands are an important component of the landscape in many low-lying tropical regions. Compared to their surroundings, wetlands provide strongly contrasting fluxes of sensible and latent heat into the atmosphere, with the potential to affect convective rainfall locally and regionally. The extents of many tropical wetlands exhibit strong seasonal and interannual variations, in response to rain which may have fallen in previous seasons, many hundreds of kilometres upstream. The timing and extent of wetland flooding is also vulnerable to upstream water management. This suggests that future rainfall patterns around wetlands may change in response to both remote rainfall, and new water infrastructure, for example in hydropower and irrigation projects. Here we use a range of observational datasets to explore the impacts of different wetlands across sub-Saharan Africa on rainfall under current climate conditions. Satellite observations include gridded 3-hourly precipitation (e.g. CMORPH), TRMM precipitation radar, and a dynamic wetland extent dataset based on multiple satellites. These remotely-sensed sources are complemented by river discharge and gauge-based rainfall data. We find that regions containing extensive wetlands typically exhibit suppressed daytime rainfall over the wetland itself, whilst new convective rain events are more likely to develop above nearby drier surfaces. This behaviour, previously documented around the Niger Inland Delta in Mali, is consistent with the development of wetland breezes which provide local convergence zones favourable for convective initiation. In some regions, where long-lived organised convective systems contribute substantially to rainfall totals, local wetland triggers can therefore influence rainfall over a much larger area. Around wetlands which exhibit strong interannual variability driven by remote upstream rainfall, the analysis provides evidence for a surface feedback

  9. Rainfall Estimation over the Nile Basin using an Adapted Version of the SCaMPR Algorithm (United States)

    Habib, E. H.; Kuligowski, R. J.; Elshamy, M. E.; Ali, M. A.; Haile, A.; Amin, D.; Eldin, A.


    Management of Egypt's Aswan High Dam is critical not only for flood control on the Nile but also for ensuring adequate water supplies for most of Egypt since rainfall is scarce over the vast majority of its land area. However, reservoir inflow is driven by rainfall over Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, and several other countries from which routine rain gauge data are sparse. Satellite-derived estimates of rainfall offer a much more detailed and timely set of data to form a basis for decisions on the operation of the dam. A single-channel infrared algorithm is currently in operational use at the Egyptian Nile Forecast Center (NFC). This study reports on the adaptation of a multi-spectral, multi-instrument satellite rainfall estimation algorithm (Self-Calibrating Multivariate Precipitation Retrieval, SCaMPR) for operational application over the Nile Basin. The algorithm uses a set of rainfall predictors from multi-spectral Infrared cloud top observations and self-calibrates them to a set of predictands from Microwave (MW) rain rate estimates. For application over the Nile Basin, the SCaMPR algorithm uses multiple satellite IR channels recently available to NFC from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). Microwave rain rates are acquired from multiple sources such as SSM/I, SSMIS, AMSU, AMSR-E, and TMI. The algorithm has two main steps: rain/no-rain separation using discriminant analysis, and rain rate estimation using stepwise linear regression. We test two modes of algorithm calibration: real-time calibration with continuous updates of coefficients with newly coming MW rain rates, and calibration using static coefficients that are derived from IR-MW data from past observations. We also compare the SCaMPR algorithm to other global-scale satellite rainfall algorithms (e.g., 'Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and other sources' (TRMM-3B42) product, and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center (NOAA

  10. Schistosomiasis mansoni in urban Northeast Brazil: influence of rainfall regime on the population dynamics of Biomphalaria sp.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Santos Oliveira


    Full Text Available Introduction Our objective was to evaluate the influence of rainfall regime on the population dynamics of Biomphalaria in a potential urban focus of schistosomiasis in Aracaju, Brazil, during 2009-2010. Methods Snails were collected monthly and were counted, measured and identified; the level of infection and fecal contamination at the sampling sites was determined; rainfall data were obtained. Results High levels of fecal contamination were observed, and the abundance of Biomphalaria glabrata increased during the rainy and post-rainy seasons. The snails' size was variable, and infected snails were identified independently of rainfall. Conclusions These results provide evidence of anthropogenic and climate interference in an urban focus of schistosomiasis in the Aracaju metropolitan area.

  11. The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on food production in the Ganges basin (United States)

    Siderius, Christian; Biemans, Hester; van Walsum, Paul; hellegers, Petra; van Ierland, Ekko; Kabat, Pavel


    Rainfall variability is expected to increase in the coming decades as the world warms. Especially in regions already water stressed, a higher rainfall variability will jeopardize food security. Recently, the impact of inter-annual rainfall variability has received increasing attention in regional to global analysis on water availability and food security. But the description of the dynamics behind it is still incomplete in most models. Contemporary land surface and hydrological models used for such analyses describe variability in production primarily as a function of yield, a process driven by biophysical parameters, thereby neglecting yearly variations in cropped area, a process driven largely by management decisions. Agricultural statistics for northern India show that the latter process could explain up to 40% of the observed inter-annual variation in food production in various states. We added a simple dynamic land use decision module to a land surface model (LPJmL) and analyzed to what extent this improved the estimation of variability in food production. Using this improved modelling framework we then assessed if and at which scale rainfall variability affects meeting the food self-sufficiency threshold. Early results for the Ganges Basin indicate that, while on basin level variability in crop production is still relatively low, several districts and states are highly affected (RSTD > 50%). Such insight can contribute to better recommendations on the most effective measures, at the most appropriate scale, to buffer variability in food production.

  12. The size distribution of spatiotemporal extreme rainfall clusters around the globe (United States)

    Traxl, D.; Boers, N.; Rheinwalt, A.; Goswami, B.; Kurths, J.


    The scaling behavior of rainfall has been extensively studied both in terms of event magnitudes and in terms of spatial extents of the events. Different heavy-tailed distributions have been proposed as candidates for both instances, but statistically rigorous treatments are rare. Here we combine the domains of event magnitudes and event area sizes by a spatiotemporal integration of 3-hourly rain rates corresponding to extreme events derived from the quasi-global high-resolution rainfall product Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42. A maximum likelihood evaluation reveals that the distribution of spatiotemporally integrated extreme rainfall cluster sizes over the oceans is best described by a truncated power law, calling into question previous statements about scale-free distributions. The observed subpower law behavior of the distribution's tail is evaluated with a simple generative model, which indicates that the exponential truncation of an otherwise scale-free spatiotemporal cluster size distribution over the oceans could be explained by the existence of land masses on the globe.

  13. The impact of climat change on shortages of rainfall and water resources in Dunajec basin (United States)

    Limanówka, Danuta; Malota, Agnieszka; Cebulak, Elżbieta; Kasina, Michał; Doktor, Radosław; Pyrc, Robert


    Dunajec basin as a one of the larger and with the biggest potential of water resources in the whole Upper Vistula basin, has a big significant impact on the whole Vistula basin. However, there are periods of shortage of rainfall which result are droughts. These may have effects as devastating as excess in rainfall. Analysis of historical "proxy data" and contemporary instrumental measurements and observations allowed to extract the years that have experienced long lasting periods of high temperatures and shortages of rainfall. Drought periods caused low water levels in large areas of the basin. The collected historical material and the measurement was used to develop scenarios for the years 2001-2060 to determine the impact of climate change on the frequency and extent of occurrence of shortage of rainfall in the future and the impact on the water regime across the whole Vistula. In analysis of climate variability for the first time were used daily data derived from the results of six regional simulations generated in different models in the EU project ENSEMBLES Detailed analysis were performed for DMI-HIRLAM 5 ARPEGE & KNMI-RACMO2_ECHAM5 simulation.

  14. Heavy rainfall intensity triggering the landslide at Sungai Ruil Cameron Highland Malaysia - A Case study (United States)

    Jaafar, K. B.


    Landslide in the village of Sungai Ruil, Brinchang, Cameron Highlands, Malaysia occurred on August 7, 2011 at 5:50 pm. This incident has caused six houses buried by debris or mud which engaged seven fatalities and two injuries This landslide has been classified as landslide debris flow. Total area of the village involved is around 40 hectares whilst the catchment area of the village is around 80 hectares. The landslide forensic investigation was carried out to identify the caused of the failure. There are three methods in conducting the study that involved geological mapping and interpretation for assessment of geological hazards. The second method is the debris flow hazard assessment in all the drainage including rainfall analysis. The rainfall analysis was carried out to produce the snake line and critical line. The third method is an analysis of slope stability in locations with high potential of slope failure in the area. There are three factors identified that resulted from this incident. The first factor is the presence of geological factors weakness (covered by colluviums), weathered material, orientation and location of adversely discontinuities and relict slope failure. While the second factor is the appearance of the morphology of hilly terrain, presence of channel order 0 or 'ephemeral drainage' and river bed gradient more than 35 degrees. The third factor is human activity that build water barrier. While the high intensity of rainfall in a short period of time is believed to be a triggering factor. This paper will discuss in detail on how intensity and duration of rainfall induce the landslide and predict the threshold value at the area.

  15. Ten-Year Climatology of Summertime Diurnal Rainfall Rate Over the Conterminous U.S. (United States)

    Matsui, Toshihisa; Mocko, David; Lee, Myong-In; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Suarez, Max J.; Pielke, Roger A., Sr.


    Diurnal cycles of summertime rainfall rates are examined over the conterminous United States, using radar-gauge assimilated hourly rainfall data. As in earlier studies, rainfall diurnal composites show a well-defined region of rainfall propagation over the Great Plains and an afternoon maximum area over the south and eastern portion of the United States. Zonal phase speeds of rainfall in three different small domains are estimated, and rainfall propagation speeds are compared with background zonal wind speeds. Unique rainfall propagation speeds in three different regions can be explained by the evolution of latent-heat theory linked to the convective available potential energy, than by gust-front induced or gravity wave propagation mechanisms.


    Ushiyama, Tomoki; Yorozuya, Atsuhiro; Kanno, Yuya; Fukami, Kazuhiko

    Torrential rainfall events often brought sudden flood and damages especially in urban area. However, it is still hard to forecast the occurrence of torrential rainfall. In this study we analyzed evolution process of a torrential rainfall event that was occurred at Itabashi, Tokyo, on July 5, 2010, to accumulate knowledge of developing mechanism and possibility of forecast of this type of rainfall. The regional meteorological model, WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting), reproduced the torrential rainfall event fairly well by the use of JMA-MSM (Japan Meteorological Agency-Mesoscale Model) data as initial and boundary conditions. For the development and maintenance of the rainfall, three streams of see-breezes from Sagami bay/ Tokyo bay/ Kashima Nada played a key role in accumulating moisture and supplying it into the precipitating system. The model reproduced the sea-breezes well, that is why it could reproduce the rainfall well.

  17. Disparity in rainfall trend and patterns among different regions: analysis of 158 years' time series of rainfall dataset across India (United States)

    Saha, Saurav; Chakraborty, Debasish; Paul, Ranjit Kumar; Samanta, Sandipan; Singh, S. B.


    Rainfall anomaly during crop-growing season can have large impact on the agricultural output of a country, especially like India, where two-thirds of the crop land is rain-fed. In such situation, decreased agricultural production not only challenges food security of the country but directly and immediately hits the livelihood of its farming community. In a vast country like India, rainfall or its anomalies hardly follow a specific pattern, rather it is having high variability in spatial domain. This study focused on the trends of national and regional rainfall anomalies (wetness/dryness) along with their interrelationship using time series data of past 158 years. The significant reducing wetness trend (p tests indicate that major abrupt changes occurred between early to mid-twentieth century having regional variations. The regional interrelationship was studied using principal component, hierarchical clustering, and pair-wise difference test, which clearly indicated a significantly different pattern in rainfall anomalies for north east India (p = 0.022), north central India (p = 0.022), and north mountainous India (p = 0.011) from that of the all India. Result of this study affirmed high spatial variability in rainfall anomaly and most importantly established the unalike pattern in trends of regional rainfall vis-à-vis national level, ushering towards paradigm shift in rainfall forecast from country scale to regional scale for pragmatic planning.

  18. Landslide prediction system for rainfall induced landslides in Slovenia (Masprem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mateja Jemec Auflič


    Full Text Available In this paper we introduce a landslide prediction system for modelling the probabilities of landslides through time in Slovenia (Masprem. The system to forecast rainfall induced landslides is based on the landslide susceptibility map, landslide triggering rainfall threshold values and the precipitation forecasting model. Through the integrated parameters a detailed framework of the system, from conceptual to operational phases, is shown. Using fuzzy logic the landslide prediction is calculated. Potential landslide areas are forecasted on a national scale (1: 250,000 and on a local scale (1: 25,000 for fie selected municipalities where the exposure of inhabitants, buildings and different type of infrastructure is displayed, twice daily. Due to different rainfall patterns that govern landslide occurrences, the system for landslide prediction considers two different rainfall scenarios (M1 and M2. The landslides predicted by the two models are compared with a landslide inventory to validate the outputs. In this study we highlight the rainfall event that lasted from the 9th to the 14th of September 2014 when abundant precipitation triggered over 800 slope failures around Slovenia and caused large material damage. Results show that antecedent rainfall plays an important role, according to the comparisons of the model (M1 where antecedent rainfall is not considered. Although in general the landslides areas are over-predicted and largely do not correspond to the landslide inventory, the overall performance indicates that the system is able to capture the crucial factors in determining the landslide location. Additional calibration of input parameters and the landslide inventory as well as improved spatially distributed rainfall forecast data can further enhance the model's prediction.

  19. Rainfall simulators in hydrological and geomorphological sciences: benefits, applications and future research directions (United States)

    Iserloh, Thomas; Cerdà, Artemi; Fister, Wolfgang; Seitz, Steffen; Keesstra, Saskia; Green, Daniel; Gabriels, Donald


    Rainfall simulators are used extensively within the hydrological and geomorphological sciences and provide a useful investigative tool to understand many processes, such as: (i) plot-scale runoff, infiltration and erosion; (ii) irrigation and crop management, and; (iii) investigations into flooding within a laboratory setting. Although natural rainfall is desirable as it represents actual conditions in a given geographic location, data acquisition relying on natural rainfall is often hindered by its unpredictable nature. Furthermore, rainfall characteristics such as the intensity, duration, drop size distribution and kinetic energy cannot be spatially or temporally regulated or repeated between experimentation. Rainfall simulators provide a suitable method to overcome the issues associated with depending on potentially erratic and unpredictable natural rainfall as they allow: (i) multiple measurements to be taken quickly without waiting for suitable natural rainfall conditions; (ii) the simulation of spatially and/or temporally controlled rainfall patterns over a given plot area, and; (iii) the creation of a closed environment, allowing simplified measurement of input and output conditions. There is no standardisation of rainfall simulation and as such, rainfall simulators differ in their design, rainfall characteristics and research application. Although this impedes drawing meaningful comparisons between studies, this allows researchers to create a bespoke and tailored rainfall simulator for the specific research application. This paper summarises the rainfall simulators used in European research institutions (Universities of Trier, Valencia, Basel, Tuebingen, Wageningen, Loughborough and Ghent) to investigate a number of hydrological and geomorphological issues and includes details on the design specifications (such as the extent and characteristics of simulated rainfall), as well as a discussion of the purpose and application of the rainfall simulator.

  20. A comparison of methods to estimate future sub-daily design rainfall (United States)

    Li, J.; Johnson, F.; Evans, J.; Sharma, A.


    Warmer temperatures are expected to increase extreme short-duration rainfall due to the increased moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere. While attention has been paid to the impacts of climate change on future design rainfalls at daily or longer time scales, the potential changes in short duration design rainfalls have been often overlooked due to the limited availability of sub-daily projections and observations. This study uses a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) to predict the changes in sub-daily design rainfalls for the Greater Sydney region in Australia. Sixteen methods for predicting changes to sub-daily future extremes are assessed based on different options for bias correction, disaggregation and frequency analysis. A Monte Carlo cross-validation procedure is employed to evaluate the skill of each method in estimating the design rainfall for the current climate. It is found that bias correction significantly improves the accuracy of the design rainfall estimated for the current climate. For 1 h events, bias correcting the hourly annual maximum rainfall simulated by the RCM produces design rainfall closest to observations, whereas for multi-hour events, disaggregating the daily rainfall total is recommended. This suggests that the RCM fails to simulate the observed multi-duration rainfall persistence, which is a common issue for most climate models. Despite the significant differences in the estimated design rainfalls between different methods, all methods lead to an increase in design rainfalls across the majority of the study region.

  1. The analysis of the possibility of using 10-minute rainfall series to determine the maximum rainfall amount with 5 minutes duration (United States)

    Kaźmierczak, Bartosz; Wartalska, Katarzyna; Wdowikowski, Marcin; Kotowski, Andrzej


    Modern scientific research in the area of heavy rainfall analysis regarding to the sewerage design indicates the need to develop and use probabilistic rain models. One of the issues that remains to be resolved is the length of the shortest amount of rain to be analyzed. It is commonly believed that the best time is 5 minutes, while the least rain duration measured by the national services is often 10 or even 15 minutes. Main aim of this paper is to present the difference between probabilistic rainfall models results given from rainfall time series including and excluding 5 minutes rainfall duration. Analysis were made for long-time period from 1961-2010 on polish meteorological station Legnica. To develop best fitted to measurement rainfall data probabilistic model 4 probabilistic distributions were used. Results clearly indicates that models including 5 minutes rainfall duration remains more appropriate to use.

  2. Changes in land cover, rainfall and stream flow in Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment, Blue Nile basin – Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. H. M. Rientjes


    Full Text Available In this study we evaluated changes in land cover and rainfall in the Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment in the Upper Blue Nile basin and how changes affected stream flow in terms of annual flow, high flows and low flows. Land cover change assessment was through classification analysis of remote sensing based land cover data while assessments on rainfall and stream flow data are by statistical analysis. Results of the supervised land cover classification analysis indicated that 50.9 % and 16.7 % of the catchment area was covered by forest in 1973 and 2001, respectively. This significant decrease in forest cover is mainly due to expansion of agricultural land.

    By use of a change detection procedure, three periods were identified for which changes in rainfall and stream flow were analyzed. Rainfall was analyzed at monthly base by use of the Mann-Kendall test statistic and results indicated a statistically significant, decreasing trend for most months of the year. However, for the wet season months of June, July and August rainfall has increased. In the period 1973–2005, the annual flow of the catchment decreased by 12.1 %. Low flow and high flow at daily base were analyzed by a low flow and a high flow index that is based on a 95 % and 5 % exceedance probability. Results of the low flow index indicated decreases of 18.1 % and 66.6 % for the periods 1982–2000 and 2001–2005 respectively. Results of high flows indicated an increase of 7.6 % and 46.6 % for the same periods. In this study it is concluded that over the period 1973–2005 stream flow has changed in the Gilgel Abbay catchment by changes in land cover and changes in rainfall.

  3. Modelling urban rainfall-runoff responses using an experimental, two-tiered physical modelling environment (United States)

    Green, Daniel; Pattison, Ian; Yu, Dapeng


    Surface water (pluvial) flooding occurs when rainwater from intense precipitation events is unable to infiltrate into the subsurface or drain via natural or artificial drainage channels. Surface water flooding poses a serious hazard to urban areas across the world, with the UK's perceived risk appearing to have increased in recent years due to surface water flood events seeming more severe and frequent. Surface water flood risk currently accounts for 1/3 of all UK flood risk, with approximately two million people living in urban areas at risk of a 1 in 200-year flood event. Research often focuses upon using numerical modelling techniques to understand the extent, depth and severity of actual or hypothetical flood scenarios. Although much research has been conducted using numerical modelling, field data available for model calibration and validation is limited due to the complexities associated with data collection in surface water flood conditions. Ultimately, the data which numerical models are based upon is often erroneous and inconclusive. Physical models offer a novel, alternative and innovative environment to collect data within, creating a controlled, closed system where independent variables can be altered independently to investigate cause and effect relationships. A physical modelling environment provides a suitable platform to investigate rainfall-runoff processes occurring within an urban catchment. Despite this, physical modelling approaches are seldom used in surface water flooding research. Scaled laboratory experiments using a 9m2, two-tiered 1:100 physical model consisting of: (i) a low-cost rainfall simulator component able to simulate consistent, uniformly distributed (>75% CUC) rainfall events of varying intensity, and; (ii) a fully interchangeable, modular plot surface have been conducted to investigate and quantify the influence of a number of terrestrial and meteorological factors on overland flow and rainfall-runoff patterns within a modelled

  4. Modeling of rainfall events and trends through multifractal analysis on the Ebro River Basin (United States)

    Valencia, Jose Luis; María Tarquis, Ana; Saá-Requejo, Antonio; Villeta, María; María Gascó, Jose


    Water supplies in the Ebro River Basin present high seasonal fluctuations, with extreme rainfall events during autumn and spring, and demands are increasingly stressed during summer. At the same time, repeated anomalous annual fluctuations in recent decades have become a serious concern for regional hydrology, agriculture and several related industries in the region. In fact, it has had a devastating impact, both socially and economically. In addition it has resulted in debate over the changing seasonal patterns of rainfall and the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events. The aim of this work is to evaluate these challenges on the Ebro River Basin.For this purpose, 132 complete and regular spatial rainfall daily datasets (from 1931 to 2009) were analyzed. Each dataset corresponds to a grid of 25 km x 25 km and belongs to the area studied. First, classical statistical tests were applied to the series at annual scale to check the randomness and trends. No trends where found. Then, we analyzed the change in the rainfall variability pattern in the Ebro River Basin. We have used universal multifractal (UM) analysis, which estimates the concentration of the data around the precipitation average (C1, codimension average), the degree of multiscaling behavior in time (α index) and the maximum probable singularity in the rainfall distribution (γs). Daily rainfall series were subdivided (1931-1975 and 1965-2009) to study the difference between the two periods in these three UM parameters, in an attempt to relate them to geographical coordinates and relative positions in the river basin. The variations observed in C1 and α in some areas of the Ebro River Basin indicate that a precipitation regime change has begun in the last few decades, and therefore, this change should be considered in terms of its potential effects on the social and economical development of the region. This confirms some postulates drawn by conservative scientists who reject a catastrophic

  5. Do rainfalls wash out anthropogenic airborne magnetic particulates? (United States)

    Baatar, Amarjargal; Ha, Raegyung; Yu, Yongjae


    We separated dust particles from the mesh-filtered sets of rainwaters collected on rainy days with daily precipitations exceeding 10 mm per day. A total of 136 rainwaters (or snow during the winter season) samples collected from February 2009 to February 2013 were analyzed. In particular, 33 out of 136 rainwaters were collected during or just after the Asian dust storm (ADS) events. Values of pH were relatively higher during warmer seasons. During ADS events, precipitations were alkaline, possibly due to abundant supply of alkaline minerals from the deserts source area to the precipitation. Compositional analysis on particulate matter (PM) indicated that Fe (and Al, K, and Mg) enriched the dusts collected during ADS, with respect to events than those without ADS. We found that ADS rainfall events are effective in selectively eliminating dust particles. However, high rainfall does not necessarily indicate more dilution of dusts. On microscopic examination, we observed natural soils, natural dust of pedogenesis or weathering origin, anthropogenic C-Fe-rich particles, and anthropogenic C-rich particles. Because of its small size, the stoichiometry of ADS-related, Fe-rich dust particles was inferred from the magnetic analysis. Presence of Verwey transition near 100-120 K and experimental determination of Curie points near 580 °C indicate that magnetic mineral responsible for the magnetic properties of ADS-related dusts was magnetite.

  6. Identification and prioritization of areas with high environmental risk in Mediterranean coastal areas: A flexible approach. (United States)

    Marignani, Michela; Bruschi, Daniele; Astiaso Garcia, Davide; Frondoni, Raffaella; Carli, Emanuela; Pinna, Maria Silvia; Cumo, Fabrizio; Gugliermetti, Franco; Saatkamp, Arne; Doxa, Aggeliki; Queller, Emi Martín; Chaieb, Mohamed; Bou Dagher-Kharrat, Magda; El Zein, Rana; El Jeitani, Sarah; Khater, Carla; Mansour, Sophie; Al-Shami, Anwar; Harik, Ghinwa; Alameddine, Ibrahim; El-Fadel, Mutasem; Blasi, Carlo


    Interdisciplinarity and transdisciplinarity are the cornerstone for the future management of coastal ecosystems with many vulnerability and hazard indexes developed for this purpose, especially in the engineering literature, but with limited studies that considered ecological implications within a risk assessment. Similarly, the concept of prioritization of sites has been widely examined in biodiversity conservation studies, but only recently as an instrument for territory management. Considering coastal plant diversity at the species and community levels, and their vulnerability to three main potential hazards threatening coastal areas (oil spills, Hazardous and Noxious Substances pollution, fragmentation of natural habitats), the objective of this paper is to define an easy-to-use approach to locate and prioritize the areas more susceptible to those stressors, in order to have a practical instrument for risk management in the ordinary and extra-ordinary management of the coastline. The procedure has been applied at pilot areas in four Mediterranean countries (Italy, France, Lebanon and Tunisia). This approach can provide policy planners, decision makers and local communities an easy-to-use instrument able to facilitate the implementation of the ICZM (Integrated Coastal Zone Management) process in their territory. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. A space-time multifractal analysis on radar rainfall sequences from central Poland (United States)

    Licznar, Paweł; Deidda, Roberto


    Rainfall downscaling belongs to most important tasks of modern hydrology. Especially from the perspective of urban hydrology there is real need for development of practical tools for possible rainfall scenarios generation. Rainfall scenarios of fine temporal scale reaching single minutes are indispensable as inputs for hydrological models. Assumption of probabilistic philosophy of drainage systems design and functioning leads to widespread application of hydrodynamic models in engineering practice. However models like these covering large areas could not be supplied with only uncorrelated point-rainfall time series. They should be rather supplied with space time rainfall scenarios displaying statistical properties of local natural rainfall fields. Implementation of a Space-Time Rainfall (STRAIN) model for hydrometeorological applications in Polish conditions, such as rainfall downscaling from the large scales of meteorological models to the scale of interest for rainfall-runoff processes is the long-distance aim of our research. As an introduction part of our study we verify the veracity of the following STRAIN model assumptions: rainfall fields are isotropic and statistically homogeneous in space; self-similarity holds (so that, after having rescaled the time by the advection velocity, rainfall is a fully homogeneous and isotropic process in the space-time domain); statistical properties of rainfall are characterized by an "a priori" known multifractal behavior. We conduct a space-time multifractal analysis on radar rainfall sequences selected from the Polish national radar system POLRAD. Radar rainfall sequences covering the area of 256 km x 256 km of original 2 km x 2 km spatial resolution and 15 minutes temporal resolution are used as study material. Attention is mainly focused on most severe summer convective rainfalls. It is shown that space-time rainfall can be considered with a good approximation to be a self-similar multifractal process. Multifractal

  8. Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan. (United States)

    Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Lee, Ming-Hsi; Chen, Yie-Ruey


    Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan. Kuang-Jung Tsai 1, Jie-Lun Chiang 2,Ming-Hsi Lee 2, Yie-Ruey Chen 1, 1Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian Universityt, Tainan, Taiwan. 2Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung, Taiwan. ABSTRACT The accumulated rainfall amount was recorded more than 2,900mm that were brought by Morakot typhoon in August, 2009 within continuous 3 days. Very serious landslides, and sediment related disasters were induced by this heavy rainfall event. The satellite image analysis project conducted by Soil and Water Conservation Bureau after Morakot event indicated that more than 10,904 sites of landslide with total sliding area of 18,113ha were found by this project. At the same time, all severe sediment related disaster areas are also characterized based on their disaster type, scale, topography, major bedrock formations and geologic structures during the period of extremely heavy rainfall events occurred at the southern Taiwan. Characteristics and mechanism of large scale landslide are collected on the basis of the field investigation technology integrated with GPS/GIS/RS technique. In order to decrease the risk of large scale landslides on slope land, the strategy of slope land conservation, and critical rainfall database should be set up and executed as soon as possible. Meanwhile, study on the establishment of critical rainfall value used for predicting large scale landslides induced by heavy rainfall become an important issue which was seriously concerned by the government and all people live in Taiwan. The mechanism of large scale landslide, rainfall frequency analysis ,sediment budge estimation and river hydraulic analysis under the condition of extremely climate change during the past 10 years would be seriously concerned and recognized as a required issue by this

  9. Partitioning the impacts of spatial rainfall variability and climate variability in urban drainage flow modelling (United States)

    Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo


    The performance of urban drainage systems is typically examined using hydrological and hydrodynamic models where rainfall is uniformly distributed and derived from a single rain gauge, or spatially distributed and obtained from a weather radar system. When models are fed with a single realization, the response of the urban drainage system to the spatiotemporal variability of rainfall remains unexplored. High resolution stochastic rainfall generators allow studying the response and sensitivity of urban drainage networks to these spatial and climatological rainfall variabilities. The goal in this study was to understand how climate variability and spatial rainfall variability affect the response of a calibrated hydrodynamic urban drainage model. A stochastic high resolution rainfall generator (STREAP) was used to simulate many realizations of rainfall, accounting for both climate variability and spatial rainfall variability. The generated rainfall was then used as input into a calibrated hydrodynamic model (EPA SWMM) to simulate surface runoff and channel flow for a small urban catchment. The variability of peak flows at three different locations in the urban drainage network in response to rainfall of different return periods was evaluated and partitioned among it sources. We found that the main contribution to the total flow variability originates from the natural climate variability. In addition, the contribution of spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with longer return periods.

  10. High Energy Astrophysics with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (United States)

    Hays, Elizabeth


    This slide presentation reviews some of the findings of the Large Area Telescope (LAT) aboard the Fermi Observatory. It includes information about the LAT, and the Gamma-Ray Burst Monitor (GBM), detection of the quiet sun and the moon in gamma rays, Pulsars observed by the observatory, Globular Star Clusters, Active Galactic Nucleus, and Gamma-Ray Bursts, with specific information about GRB 080916C.

  11. Flooding from Intense Rainfall: an overview of project SINATRA (United States)

    Cloke, Hannah


    Project SINATRA (Susceptibility of catchments to INTense RAinfall and flooding) is part of the UK NERC's Flooding From Intense Rainfall (FFIR) research programme which aims to reduce the risks of damage and loss of life caused by surface water and flash floods through improved identification, characterisation and prediction of interacting meteorological, hydrological and hydro-morphological processes that contribute to flooding associated with high-intensity rainfall events. Extreme rainfall events may only last for a few hours at most, but can generate terrifying and destructive floods. Their impact can be affected by a wide range factors (or processes) such as the location and intensity of the rainfall, the shape and steepness of the catchment it falls on, how much sediment is moved by the water and the vulnerability of the communities in the flood's path. Furthermore, FFIR are by their nature rapid, making it very difficult for researchers to 'capture' measurements during events. The complexity, speed and lack of field measurements on FFIR make it difficult to create computer models to predict flooding and often we are uncertain as to their accuracy. In addition there is no consensus on how to identify how particular catchments may be vulnerable to FFIR, due to factors such as catchment area, shape, geology and soil type as well as land-use. Additionally, the catchments most susceptible to FFIR are often small and un-gauged. Project SINATRA will: (1) Increase our understanding of what factors cause FFIR and gathering new, high resolution measurements of FFIR by: assembling an archive of past FFIR events in Britain and their impacts, as a prerequisite for improving our ability to predict future occurrences of FFIR; making real time observations of flooding during flood events as well as post-event surveys and historical event reconstruction, using fieldwork and crowd-sourcing methods; and characterizing the physical drivers for UK summer flooding events by

  12. Statistical atmospheric downscaling for rainfall estimation in Kyushu Island, Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Bertacchi Uvo


    Full Text Available The present paper develops linear regression models based on singular value decomposition (SVD with the aim of downscaling atmospheric variables statistically to estimate average rainfall in the Chikugo River Basin, Kyushu Island, southern Japan, on a 12-hour basis. Models were designed to take only significantly correlated areas into account in the downscaling procedure. By using particularly precipitable water in combination with wind speeds at 850 hPa, correlation coefficients between observed and estimated precipitation exceeding 0.8 were reached. The correlations exhibited a seasonal variation with higher values during autumn and winter than during spring and summer. The SVD analysis preceding the model development highlighted three important features of the rainfall regime in southern Japan: (1 the so-called Bai-u front which is responsible for the majority of summer rainfall, (2 the strong circulation pattern associated with autumn rainfall, and (3 the strong influence of orographic lifting creating a pronounced east-west gradient across Kyushu Island. Results confirm the feasibility of establishing meaningful statistical relationships between atmospheric state and basin rainfall even at time scales of less than one day. Keywords: atmospheric downscaling, precipitation, rainfall, singular value decomposition, southern Japan

  13. Method for the preparation of high surface area high permeability carbons (United States)

    Lagasse, R.R.; Schroeder, J.L.


    A method for preparing carbon materials having high surface area and high macropore volume to provide high permeability. These carbon materials are prepared by dissolving a carbonizable polymer precursor, in a solvent. The solution is cooled to form a gel. The solvent is extracted from the gel by employing a non-solvent for the polymer. The non-solvent is removed by critical point drying in CO{sub 2} at an elevated pressure and temperature or evaporation in a vacuum oven. The dried product is heated in an inert atmosphere in a first heating step to a first temperature and maintained there for a time sufficient to substantially cross-link the polymer material. The cross-linked polymer material is then carbonized in an inert atmosphere. 3 figs.

  14. Regionalization of monthly rainfall erosivity patterns in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Schmidt


    proportion of 62 % of the total annual rainfall erosivity is identified within four months only (June–September. The highest erosion risk can be expected in July, where not only rainfall erosivity but also erosivity density is high. In addition to the intra-annual temporal regime, a spatial variability of this seasonality was detectable between different regions of Switzerland. The assessment of the dynamic behavior of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of susceptible seasons and regions.

  15. Space–Time Characterization of Rainfall Field in Tuscany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Mazza


    Full Text Available Precipitation during the period 2001–2016 over the northern and central part of Tuscany was studied in order to characterize the rainfall regime. The dataset consisted of hourly cumulative rainfall series recorded by a network of 801 rain gauges. The territory was divided into 30 × 30 km2 square areas where the annual and seasonal Average Cumulative Rainfall (ACR and its uncertainty were estimated using the Non-Parametric Ordinary Block Kriging (NPOBK technique. The choice of area size was a compromise that allows a satisfactory spatial resolution and an acceptable uncertainty of ACR estimates. The daily ACR was estimated using a less computationally expensive technique, averaging the cumulative rainfall measurements in the area. The trend analysis of annual and seasonal ACR time series was performed by means of the Mann–Kendall test. Four climatic zones were identified: the north-western was the rainiest, followed by the north-eastern, northcentral and south-central. An overall increase in precipitation was identified, more intense in the north-west, and determined mostly by the increase in winter precipitation. On the entire territory, the number of rainy days, mean precipitation intensity and sum of daily ACR in four intensity groups were evaluated at annual and seasonal scale. The main result was a magnitude of the ACR trend evaluated as 35 mm/year, due mainly to an increase in light and extreme precipitations. This result is in contrast with the decreasing rainfall detected in the past decades.

  16. Space-time organization of debris flows-triggering rainfall and its effect on the identification of the rainfall threshold relationship (United States)

    Marra, F.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Creutin, J. D.; Borga, M.


    Debris flow occurrence is generally forecasted by means of empirical rainfall depth-duration thresholds based on raingauge observations. Rainfall estimation errors related to the sparse nature of raingauge data are enhanced in case of convective rainfall events characterized by limited spatial extent. Such errors have been shown to cause underestimation of the rainfall thresholds and, thus, less efficient forecasts of debris flows occurrence. This work examines the spatial organization of debris flows-triggering rainfall around the debris flow initiation points using high-resolution, carefully corrected radar data for a set of short duration (Alps. On average, triggering rainfall presents a local peak corresponding to the debris flow initiation point, with rain depth at 5 km (10 km) distance being on average around 70% (40%) of rain depth observed at the debris flow initiation points. The peak is consistently enhanced for events characterized by short durations and causes a systematic underestimation of the rainfall depth-duration thresholds when rainfall is measured away from the debris flow initiation points. We develop an analytical framework that exploits the general characteristics of the spatial rainfall organization to predict the systematic underestimation of the depth-duration thresholds when rainfall is sampled away from the initiation points. Predictions obtained based on this analytical framework are assessed using a Monte Carlo sampling technique.

  17. 76 FR 82212 - Grants for Transportation of Veterans in Highly Rural Areas (United States)


    ... AFFAIRS 38 CFR Part 17 RIN 2900-AO01 Grants for Transportation of Veterans in Highly Rural Areas AGENCY... to ``RIN 2900-AO01, Grants for Transportation of Veterans in Highly Rural Areas.'' Copies of comments... award grants to eligible entities to assist veterans in highly rural areas to travel to VA medical...

  18. Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones: Contribution of deep convection and warm conveyor belt (United States)

    Flaounas, Emmanouil; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Gray, Suzanne; Rysman, Jean-Francois; Claud, Chantal


    In this study, we provide an insight to the role of deep convection (DC) and the warm conveyor belt (WCB) as leading processes to Mediterranean cyclones heavy rainfall. To this end, we use reanalysis data, lighting and satellite observations in order to quantify the relative contribution of DC and the WCB to cyclones rainfall, as well as to analyse these processes spatial and temporal variability respect to the cyclones centre and life cycle. Results show that the relationship between cyclone rainfall and intensity shows high variability and demonstrates that even intense cyclones may produce low rainfall amounts. However, when considering rainfall averages for cyclone intensity bins, a linear relationship was found. We focus on the 500 most intense tracked cyclones (responsible for about 40-50% of the total Mediterranean rainfall) and distinguish between the ones producing high and low rainfall amounts. DC and the WCB are found to be the main cause of rainfall for the former (producing up to 70% of cyclone rainfall), while, for the latter, DC and WCB play a secondary role (producing up to 40% of rainfall). Further analysis showed that DC and WCB are rather distinct processes, being rarely collocated. In fact, rainfall due to DC tends to occur close to the cyclones' centre and to their eastern sides, while WCB tends to produce rainfall towards the northeast. Finally, DC was found to be able to produce higher rain rates than WCBs. Our results demonstrate in a climatological framework the relationship between cyclones intensity and processes that lead to heavy rainfall, one of the most prominent environmental risks in the Mediterranean. Therefore, we set perspectives for a deeper analysis of the favourable atmospheric conditions that provoke high impact weather. Our study has been performed in the context of the project: Cyclone processes leading to extreme rainfall in the Mediterranean region (ExMeCy; Marie Skłodowska-Curie actions, grant agreement-658997)

  19. Comparing rainfall variability, model complexity and hydrological response at the intra-event scale (United States)

    Cristiano, Elena; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; Ochoa-Rodriguez, Susana; van de Giesen, Nick


    The high variability in space and time of rainfall is one of the main aspects that influence hydrological response and generation of pluvial flooding. This phenomenon has a bigger impact in urban areas, where response is usually faster and flow peaks are typically higher, due to the high degree of imperviousness. Previous researchers have investigated sensitivity of urban hydrodynamic models to rainfall space-time resolution as well as interactions with model structure and resolution. They showed that finding a proper match between rainfall resolution and model complexity is important and that sensitivity increases for smaller urban catchment scales. Results also showed high variability in hydrological response sensitivity, the origins of which remain poorly understood. In this work, we investigate the interaction between rainfall input variability and model structure and scale at high resolution, i.e. 1-15 minutes in time and 100m to 3 km in space. Apart from studying summary statistics such as relative peak flow errors and coefficient of determination, we look into characteristics of response hydrographs to find explanations for response variability in relation to catchment properties as well storm event characteristics (e.g. storm scale and movement, single-peak versus multi-peak events). The aim is to identify general relations between storm temporal and spatial scale and catchment scale in explaining variability of hydrological response. Analyses are conducted for the Cranbrook catchment (London, UK), using 3 hydrodynamic models set up in InfoWorks ICM: a low resolution semi-distributed (SD1) model, a high resolution semi-distributed (SD2) model and a fully distributed (FD) model. These models represent the spatial variability of the land in different ways: semi-distributed models divide the surface in subcatchments, each of them modelled in a lumped way (51 subcatchment for the S model and 4409 subcatchments for the SD model), while the fully distributed

  20. An Apparent Paradox in Verification of Rainfall Estimates. (United States)

    Ciach, G. J.


    A problem that is a source of permanent cognitive confusion in comprehensive evaluations of different rainfall estimates is presented. The problem stems from the existence of two conditional biases (CB) inherent to the uncertainties of the estimates. The two CBs, called "CB type 1" and "CB type 2," are recognized by researchers familiar with the distribution-oriented framework for complete verification of hydrological and meteorological products. Although the mathematical definitions of the two CBs are clear, a reality check reveals that their meaningful interpretation is problematic. It can even result in self-contradictory conclusions suggesting both systematic overestimation and underestimation of strong rainfall by the same rainfall estimation products. A solution to this apparent paradox is discussed. This investigation is based on large data samples of different radar rainfall estimates and the corresponding highly accurate ground reference. Understanding the two CBs, their physical consequences and the fundamental inter-relations between them is essential for informed usage of these uncertainty characteristics.

  1. Observed change in extreme daily rainfalls in the French Mediterranean (United States)

    Ribes, Aurélien; Thao, Soulivanh; Vautard, Robert; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Somot, Samuel; Colin, Jeanne; Planton, Serge; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel


    In spite of a relatively dry mean climate, the Mediterranean regions in Southern France use to experience heavy rainfalls over short durations - typically a few minutes to one day. Here we examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area, where many long homogeneous time-series are available. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series, according to their statistical dependence. This procedure substantially enhances the signal-to-noise ratio. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at +22% (+7% to +39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequencies for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200mm in one day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this risk ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events during the last decades. We argue that the diagnosed trends can hardly be explained without invoking the human influence on climate.

  2. The Influence of Leaf Angle and Leaf Surface Characteristics on the Process of Rainfall Interception (United States)

    Holder, C.; Ginebra, R.; Webb, R.


    Individual choice in plant selection for household landscaping influences differences in runoff from urban watersheds because the variation in plant canopy architecture results in rainfall interception differences. Understanding the variables that influence rainfall interception and understanding the mechanism of rainfall interception are important concepts for sustainable watershed management. The broad objective of this study was to explore the influence of leaf hydrophobicity, water droplet retention, and leaf angle on the mechanism and process of rainfall interception and raindrop impaction on leaf surfaces of common tree species from the semi-arid regions of the western United States. Leaf hydrophobicity is determined by the cohesive forces of the water molecules among themselves and the adhesive forces that result from the molecular interactions between the water droplet and the leaf surface. Water droplet retention is a measure of how easily a water droplet drains off a leaf surface. The specific hypotheses examined were 1) larger raindrops falling on leaf surfaces will deflect the leaf to an angle greater than the water droplet retention angle; 2) an increased leaf angle, whether from natural position or deflection due to droplet impact and retention, reduces interception from raindrop impaction on hydrophobic and hydrophilic leaf surfaces; and 3) increased droplet size and frequency decrease rainfall interception more significantly in the hydrophilic case. These hypotheses were addressed in a laboratory experiment by 1) measuring leaf hydrophobicity and water droplet retention using a goniometer with a tilting base; 2) measuring leaf traits such as leaf area, leaf surface roughness, trichome density, and specific storage capacity; 3) examining raindrop splash on leaf surfaces with varying leaf hydrophobicity, water droplet retention, and leaf angle with a raindrop generator and high-speed video camera; and 4) modeling the impact of raindrop splash on leaf

  3. Satellite observations of rainfall effect on sea surface salinity in the waters adjacent to Taiwan (United States)

    Ho, Chung-Ru; Hsu, Po-Chun; Lin, Chen-Chih; Huang, Shih-Jen


    Changes of oceanic salinity are highly related to the variations of evaporation and precipitation. To understand the influence of rainfall on the sea surface salinity (SSS) in the waters adjacent to Taiwan, satellite remote sensing data from the year of 2012 to 2014 are employed in this study. The daily rain rate data obtained from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Microwave Imager (TRMM/TMI), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR), and WindSat Polarimetric Radiometer. The SSS data was derived from the measurements of radiometer instruments onboard the Aquarius satellite. The results show the average values of SSS in east of Taiwan, east of Luzon and South China Sea are 33.83 psu, 34.05 psu, and 32.84 psu, respectively, in the condition of daily rain rate higher than 1 mm/hr. In contrast to the rainfall condition, the average values of SSS are 34.07 psu, 34.26 psu, and 33.09 psu in the three areas, respectively at no rain condition (rain rate less than 1 mm/hr). During the cases of heavy rainfall caused by spiral rain bands of typhoon, the SSS is diluted with an average value of -0.78 psu when the average rain rate is higher than 4 mm/hr. However, the SSS was increased after temporarily decreased during the typhoon cases. A possible reason to explain this phenomenon is that the heavy rainfall caused by the spiral rain bands of typhoon may dilute the sea surface water, but the strong winds can uplift the higher salinity of subsurface water to the sea surface.

  4. High Yield Chemical Vapor Deposition Growth of High Quality Large-Area AB Stacked Bilayer Graphene (United States)

    Liu, Lixin; Zhou, Hailong; Cheng, Rui; Yu, Woo Jong; Liu, Yuan; Chen, Yu; Shaw, Jonathan; Zhong, Xing; Huang, Yu; Duan, Xiangfeng


    Bernal stacked (AB stacked) bilayer graphene is of significant interest for functional electronic and photonic devices due to the feasibility to continuously tune its band gap with a vertical electrical field. Mechanical exfoliation can be used to produce AB stacked bilayer graphene flakes but typically with the sizes limited to a few micrometers. Chemical vapor deposition (CVD) has been recently explored for the synthesis of bilayer graphene but usually with limited coverage and a mixture of AB and randomly stacked structures. Herein we report a rational approach to produce large-area high quality AB stacked bilayer graphene. We show that the self-limiting effect of graphene growth on Cu foil can be broken by using a high H2/CH4 ratio in a low pressure CVD process to enable the continued growth of bilayer graphene. A high temperature and low pressure nucleation step is found to be critical for the formation of bilayer graphene nuclei with high AB stacking ratio. A rational design of a two-step CVD process is developed for the growth of bilayer graphene with high AB stacking ratio (up to 90 %) and high coverage (up to 99 %). The electrical transport studies demonstrated that devices made of the as-grown bilayer graphene exhibit typical characteristics of AB stacked bilayer graphene with the highest carrier mobility exceeding 4,000 cm2/V·s at room temperature, comparable to that of the exfoliated bilayer graphene. PMID:22906199

  5. High Resolution Orthoimagery = Orthorectified Metro Areas: 2000 - Present (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — High resolution orthorectified images combine the image characteristics of an aerial photograph with the geometric qualities of a map. An orthoimage is a...

  6. Cascading rainfall uncertainty into flood inundation impact models (United States)

    Souvignet, Maxime; Freer, Jim E.; de Almeida, Gustavo A. M.; Coxon, Gemma; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Champion, Adrian J.; Cloke, Hannah L.; Bates, Paul D.


    . The study is performed in the Severn catchment over summer 2007, where a series of large rainfall events (over 100mm between the 20th and 21rst of July in certain sub-catchments) caused record floods in the study area. Differences in water level at benchmark stations are compared and the resulting prediction uncertainties are analysed for the different rainfall products. These results quantify how different cascading techniques and rainfall input uncertainty affects the resultant set of behavioural simulations. This allows us to compare the performance of different rainfall products used for real forecasting situations.

  7. Multifractal Downscaling of Rainfall Using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Andes Plateau. (United States)

    Duffaut Espinosa, L A; Posadas, A N; Carbajal, M; Quiroz, R


    In this paper, a multifractal downscaling technique is applied to adequately transformed and lag corrected normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in order to obtain daily estimates of rainfall in an area of the Peruvian Andean high plateau. This downscaling procedure is temporal in nature since the original NDVI information is provided at an irregular temporal sampling period between 8 and 11 days, and the desired final scale is 1 day. The spatial resolution of approximately 1 km remains the same throughout the downscaling process. The results were validated against on-site measurements of meteorological stations distributed in the area under study.

  8. Rainfall simulation for environmental application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shriner, D.S.; Abner, C.H.; Mann, L.K.


    Rain simulation systems have been designed for field and greenhouse studies which have the capability of reproducing the physical and chemical characteristics of natural rainfall. The systems permit the simulation of variations in rainfall and droplet size similar to that of natural precipitation. The systems are completely automatic and programmable, allowing unattended operation for periods of up to one week, and have been used to expose not only vegetation but also soils and engineering materials, making them versatile tools for studies involving simulated precipitation.

  9. Rainfall intensity-duration equations (United States)

    Froehlich, David C.


    A method for rapidly developing a rainfall intensity-duration equation for durations less than one hour and recurrence intervals between 2 and 100 years for any location in the conterminous United States is presented. Optimal parameters of a general rainfall-intensity duration equation are determined using precipitation depths for durations of 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60 minutes obtained from commonly available isopluvial maps. A single set of parameters applies to the entire western U.S. For the central and eastern U.S, a graphical means of determining the parameters is provided.

  10. High Resolution Marine Magnetic Survey of Shallow Water Littoral Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Sharvit


    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present a system developed for detection andaccurate mapping of ferro-metallic objects buried below the seabed in shallow waters. Thesystem comprises a precise magnetic gradiometer and navigation subsystem, both installedon a non-magnetic catamaran towed by a low-magnetic interfering boat. In addition wepresent the results of a marine survey of a near-shore area in the vicinity of Atlit, a townsituated on the Mediterranean coast of Israel, about 15 km south of Haifa. The primarypurpose of the survey was to search for a Harvard airplane that crashed into the sea in 1960.A magnetic map of the survey area (3.5 km2 on a 0.5 m grid was created revealing theanomalies at sub-meter accuracy. For each investigated target location a correspondingferro-metallic item was dug out, one of which turned to be very similar to a part of thecrashed airplane. The accuracy of location was confirmed by matching the position of theactual dug artifacts with the magnetic map within a range of ± 1 m, in a water depth of 9 m.

  11. Data sources on landscape structure in a highly industrialized area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazurek Kinga


    Full Text Available Landscape may be described as a part of space characterized by a certain physiognomy, which is a dynamic system subject to evolution. An important factor influencing the type and condition of the landscape is human activity which shapes or rebuilds its structure. Interesting results may be obtained on comparison of archival cartographic materials with contemporary studies and zoning plans. The Upper Silesian Coal Basin is a region with a clearly transformed landscape. The determinant of the geographical environment transformation here is the anthropogenic factor. The study area includes the upper part of the Kłodnica catchment (229.6 sq km. The study is a review, and its aim is to systematize data sources used in the research on the transformation of landscape structure of a heavily industrialized area. In the first half of the nineteenth century created the "Urmesstischblätter" in the scale of 1:25 000. Afterwards preparations began to take new topographic images of the country (the "Messtischblätter". In the 1990s initiated the development of a new topographic map (in the scale of 1:10 000. Recent data source is for example the project CORINE Land Cover 2006. There are many of various sources of data on land cover. An important aspect is the proper selection of documents and maps, and their proper interpretation.

  12. Rainfall intensity - rainfall kinetic energy relationships: a critical literature appraisal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, A.I.J.M.; Bruijnzeel, L.A.; Rosewell, C.J.


    Knowledge of the relationship between rainfall intensity and kinetic energy and its variations in time and space is important for erosion prediction. However, between studies considerable variations exist in the reported shape and coefficients of this relationship. Some differences can be explained

  13. Parallelization of the TRIGRS model for rainfall-induced landslides using the message passing interface (United States)

    Alvioli, M.; Baum, R.L.


    We describe a parallel implementation of TRIGRS, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model for the timing and distribution of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. We have parallelized the four time-demanding execution modes of TRIGRS, namely both the saturated and unsaturated model with finite and infinite soil depth options, within the Message Passing Interface framework. In addition to new features of the code, we outline details of the parallel implementation and show the performance gain with respect to the serial code. Results are obtained both on commercial hardware and on a high-performance multi-node machine, showing the different limits of applicability of the new code. We also discuss the implications for the application of the model on large-scale areas and as a tool for real-time landslide hazard monitoring.

  14. Simulation of rainfall effects on sediment transport on steep slopes in an Alpine catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kaiser


    Full Text Available The Alps represent a young, high mountain range which displays strong geomorphological activity. As the major source area in Central Europe, they deliver large quantities of sediment to the lowlands. However, our knowledge on process differentiation is still not sufficient to distinguish between the summer and winter periods of denudation. To increase our understanding of soil detachment, artificial rainfall experiments were carried out to generate data for the physically-based soil erosion model EROSION 2D/3D. Additionally, state-of-the-art, close-range remote sensing methods were applied to validate the results. The first rainfall simulations showed promising results for predicting denudation during the summer period, thus indicating the applicability of this experimental approach. However, further research is required for seasonal dynamics during other times of the year.