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Sample records for high posterior probabilities

  1. Posterior Probability Matching and Human Perceptual Decision Making.

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    Richard F Murray

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Probability matching is a classic theory of decision making that was first developed in models of cognition. Posterior probability matching, a variant in which observers match their response probabilities to the posterior probability of each response being correct, is being used increasingly often in models of perception. However, little is known about whether posterior probability matching is consistent with the vast literature on vision and hearing that has developed within signal detection theory. Here we test posterior probability matching models using two tools from detection theory. First, we examine the models' performance in a two-pass experiment, where each block of trials is presented twice, and we measure the proportion of times that the model gives the same response twice to repeated stimuli. We show that at low performance levels, posterior probability matching models give highly inconsistent responses across repeated presentations of identical trials. We find that practised human observers are more consistent across repeated trials than these models predict, and we find some evidence that less practised observers more consistent as well. Second, we compare the performance of posterior probability matching models on a discrimination task to the performance of a theoretical ideal observer that achieves the best possible performance. We find that posterior probability matching is very inefficient at low-to-moderate performance levels, and that human observers can be more efficient than is ever possible according to posterior probability matching models. These findings support classic signal detection models, and rule out a broad class of posterior probability matching models for expert performance on perceptual tasks that range in complexity from contrast discrimination to symmetry detection. However, our findings leave open the possibility that inexperienced observers may show posterior probability matching behaviour, and our methods

  2. Elastic K-means using posterior probability.

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    Zheng, Aihua; Jiang, Bo; Li, Yan; Zhang, Xuehan; Ding, Chris

    2017-01-01

    The widely used K-means clustering is a hard clustering algorithm. Here we propose a Elastic K-means clustering model (EKM) using posterior probability with soft capability where each data point can belong to multiple clusters fractionally and show the benefit of proposed Elastic K-means. Furthermore, in many applications, besides vector attributes information, pairwise relations (graph information) are also available. Thus we integrate EKM with Normalized Cut graph clustering into a single clustering formulation. Finally, we provide several useful matrix inequalities which are useful for matrix formulations of learning models. Based on these results, we prove the correctness and the convergence of EKM algorithms. Experimental results on six benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed EKM and its integrated model.

  3. Multiclass Posterior Probability Twin SVM for Motor Imagery EEG Classification.

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    She, Qingshan; Ma, Yuliang; Meng, Ming; Luo, Zhizeng

    2015-01-01

    Motor imagery electroencephalography is widely used in the brain-computer interface systems. Due to inherent characteristics of electroencephalography signals, accurate and real-time multiclass classification is always challenging. In order to solve this problem, a multiclass posterior probability solution for twin SVM is proposed by the ranking continuous output and pairwise coupling in this paper. First, two-class posterior probability model is constructed to approximate the posterior probability by the ranking continuous output techniques and Platt's estimating method. Secondly, a solution of multiclass probabilistic outputs for twin SVM is provided by combining every pair of class probabilities according to the method of pairwise coupling. Finally, the proposed method is compared with multiclass SVM and twin SVM via voting, and multiclass posterior probability SVM using different coupling approaches. The efficacy on the classification accuracy and time complexity of the proposed method has been demonstrated by both the UCI benchmark datasets and real world EEG data from BCI Competition IV Dataset 2a, respectively.

  4. Bayesian maximum posterior probability method for interpreting plutonium urinalysis data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, G.; Inkret, W.C.

    1996-01-01

    A new internal dosimetry code for interpreting urinalysis data in terms of radionuclide intakes is described for the case of plutonium. The mathematical method is to maximise the Bayesian posterior probability using an entropy function as the prior probability distribution. A software package (MEMSYS) developed for image reconstruction is used. Some advantages of the new code are that it ensures positive calculated dose, it smooths out fluctuating data, and it provides an estimate of the propagated uncertainty in the calculated doses. (author)

  5. Learning about Posterior Probability: Do Diagrams and Elaborative Interrogation Help?

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    Clinton, Virginia; Alibali, Martha W.; Nathan, Mitchell J.

    2016-01-01

    To learn from a text, students must make meaningful connections among related ideas in that text. This study examined the effectiveness of two methods of improving connections--elaborative interrogation and diagrams--in written lessons about posterior probability. Undergraduate students (N = 198) read a lesson in one of three questioning…

  6. Posterior probability of linkage and maximal lod score.

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    Génin, E; Martinez, M; Clerget-Darpoux, F

    1995-01-01

    To detect linkage between a trait and a marker, Morton (1955) proposed to calculate the lod score z(theta 1) at a given value theta 1 of the recombination fraction. If z(theta 1) reaches +3 then linkage is concluded. However, in practice, lod scores are calculated for different values of the recombination fraction between 0 and 0.5 and the test is based on the maximum value of the lod score Zmax. The impact of this deviation of the test on the probability that in fact linkage does not exist, when linkage was concluded, is documented here. This posterior probability of no linkage can be derived by using Bayes' theorem. It is less than 5% when the lod score at a predetermined theta 1 is used for the test. But, for a Zmax of +3, we showed that it can reach 16.4%. Thus, considering a composite alternative hypothesis instead of a single one decreases the reliability of the test. The reliability decreases rapidly when Zmax is less than +3. Given a Zmax of +2.5, there is a 33% chance that linkage does not exist. Moreover, the posterior probability depends not only on the value of Zmax but also jointly on the family structures and on the genetic model. For a given Zmax, the chance that linkage exists may then vary.

  7. Probability in High Dimension

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-30

    precisely the content of the following result. The price we pay is that the assumption that A is a packing in (F, k ·k1) is too weak to make this happen...Regularité des trajectoires des fonctions aléatoires gaussiennes. In: École d’Été de Probabilités de Saint- Flour , IV-1974, pp. 1–96. Lecture Notes in...Lectures on probability theory and statistics (Saint- Flour , 1994), Lecture Notes in Math., vol. 1648, pp. 165–294. Springer, Berlin (1996) 50. Ledoux

  8. Bayesian selection of misspecified models is overconfident and may cause spurious posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees.

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    Yang, Ziheng; Zhu, Tianqi

    2018-02-20

    The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this overconfidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian selection of misspecified models is poorly understood, even though this is of great scientific interest since models are never true in real data analysis. Here we characterize the asymptotic behavior of Bayesian model selection and show that when the competing models are equally wrong, Bayesian model selection exhibits surprising and polarized behaviors in large datasets, supporting one model with full force while rejecting the others. If one model is slightly less wrong than the other, the less wrong model will eventually win when the amount of data increases, but the method may become overconfident before it becomes reliable. We suggest that this extreme behavior may be a major factor for the spuriously high posterior probabilities for evolutionary trees. The philosophical implications of our results to the application of Bayesian model selection to evaluate opposing scientific hypotheses are yet to be explored, as are the behaviors of non-Bayesian methods in similar situations.

  9. Bayes factor and posterior probability: Complementary statistical evidence to p-value.

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    Lin, Ruitao; Yin, Guosheng

    2015-09-01

    As a convention, a p-value is often computed in hypothesis testing and compared with the nominal level of 0.05 to determine whether to reject the null hypothesis. Although the smaller the p-value, the more significant the statistical test, it is difficult to perceive the p-value in a probability scale and quantify it as the strength of the data against the null hypothesis. In contrast, the Bayesian posterior probability of the null hypothesis has an explicit interpretation of how strong the data support the null. We make a comparison of the p-value and the posterior probability by considering a recent clinical trial. The results show that even when we reject the null hypothesis, there is still a substantial probability (around 20%) that the null is true. Not only should we examine whether the data would have rarely occurred under the null hypothesis, but we also need to know whether the data would be rare under the alternative. As a result, the p-value only provides one side of the information, for which the Bayes factor and posterior probability may offer complementary evidence. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Classification of Knee Joint Vibration Signals Using Bivariate Feature Distribution Estimation and Maximal Posterior Probability Decision Criterion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Zheng

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of knee joint vibration or vibroarthrographic (VAG signals using signal processing and machine learning algorithms possesses high potential for the noninvasive detection of articular cartilage degeneration, which may reduce unnecessary exploratory surgery. Feature representation of knee joint VAG signals helps characterize the pathological condition of degenerative articular cartilages in the knee. This paper used the kernel-based probability density estimation method to model the distributions of the VAG signals recorded from healthy subjects and patients with knee joint disorders. The estimated densities of the VAG signals showed explicit distributions of the normal and abnormal signal groups, along with the corresponding contours in the bivariate feature space. The signal classifications were performed by using the Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis, support vector machine with polynomial kernels, and the maximal posterior probability decision criterion. The maximal posterior probability decision criterion was able to provide the total classification accuracy of 86.67% and the area (Az of 0.9096 under the receiver operating characteristics curve, which were superior to the results obtained by either the Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis (accuracy: 81.33%, Az: 0.8564 or the support vector machine with polynomial kernels (accuracy: 81.33%, Az: 0.8533. Such results demonstrated the merits of the bivariate feature distribution estimation and the superiority of the maximal posterior probability decision criterion for analysis of knee joint VAG signals.

  11. High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation.

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    Farmer, Jenny; Jacobs, Donald

    2018-01-01

    In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference.

  12. A three-step Maximum-A-Posterior probability method for InSAR data inversion of coseismic rupture with application to four recent large earthquakes in Asia

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    Sun, J.; Shen, Z.; Burgmann, R.; Liang, F.

    2012-12-01

    We develop a three-step Maximum-A-Posterior probability (MAP) method for coseismic rupture inversion, which aims at maximizing the a posterior probability density function (PDF) of elastic solutions of earthquake rupture. The method originates from the Fully Bayesian Inversion (FBI) and the Mixed linear-nonlinear Bayesian inversion (MBI) methods , shares the same a posterior PDF with them and keeps most of their merits, while overcoming its convergence difficulty when large numbers of low quality data are used and improving the convergence rate greatly using optimization procedures. A highly efficient global optimization algorithm, Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA), is used to search for the maximum posterior probability in the first step. The non-slip parameters are determined by the global optimization method, and the slip parameters are inverted for using the least squares method without positivity constraint initially, and then damped to physically reasonable range. This step MAP inversion brings the inversion close to 'true' solution quickly and jumps over local maximum regions in high-dimensional parameter space. The second step inversion approaches the 'true' solution further with positivity constraints subsequently applied on slip parameters using the Monte Carlo Inversion (MCI) technique, with all parameters obtained from step one as the initial solution. Then the slip artifacts are eliminated from slip models in the third step MAP inversion with fault geometry parameters fixed. We first used a designed model with 45 degree dipping angle and oblique slip, and corresponding synthetic InSAR data sets to validate the efficiency and accuracy of method. We then applied the method on four recent large earthquakes in Asia, namely the 2010 Yushu, China earthquake, the 2011 Burma earthquake, the 2011 New Zealand earthquake and the 2008 Qinghai, China earthquake, and compared our results with those results from other groups. Our results show the effectiveness of

  13. Building a Model Using Bayesian Network for Assessment of Posterior Probabilities of Falling From Height at Workplaces

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    Seyed Shamseddin Alizadeh

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Falls from height are one of the main causes of fatal occupational injuries. The objective of this study was to present a model for estimating occurrence probability of falling from height. Methods: In order to make a list of factors affecting falls, we used four expert group's judgment, literature review and an available database. Then the validity and reliability of designed questionnaire were determined and Bayesian networks were built. The built network, nodes and curves were quantified. For network sensitivity analysis, four types of analysis carried out. Results: A Bayesian network for assessment of posterior probabilities of falling from height proposed. The presented Bayesian network model shows the interrelationships among 37 causes affecting the falling from height and can calculate its posterior probabilities. The most important factors affecting falling were Non-compliance with safety instructions for work at height (0.127, Lack of safety equipment for work at height (0.094 and Lack of safety instructions for work at height (0.071 respectively. Conclusion: The proposed Bayesian network used to determine how different causes could affect the falling from height at work. The findings of this study can be used to decide on the falling accident prevention programs.

  14. Prestack inversion based on anisotropic Markov random field-maximum posterior probability inversion and its application to identify shale gas sweet spots

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    Wang, Kang-Ning; Sun, Zan-Dong; Dong, Ning

    2015-12-01

    Economic shale gas production requires hydraulic fracture stimulation to increase the formation permeability. Hydraulic fracturing strongly depends on geomechanical parameters such as Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. Fracture-prone sweet spots can be predicted by prestack inversion, which is an ill-posed problem; thus, regularization is needed to obtain unique and stable solutions. To characterize gas-bearing shale sedimentary bodies, elastic parameter variations are regarded as an anisotropic Markov random field. Bayesian statistics are adopted for transforming prestack inversion to the maximum posterior probability. Two energy functions for the lateral and vertical directions are used to describe the distribution, and the expectation-maximization algorithm is used to estimate the hyperparameters of the prior probability of elastic parameters. Finally, the inversion yields clear geological boundaries, high vertical resolution, and reasonable lateral continuity using the conjugate gradient method to minimize the objective function. Antinoise and imaging ability of the method were tested using synthetic and real data.

  15. STUDY OF POSTERIOR FOSSA TUMORS BY HIGH RESOLUTION MRI

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    Sree Hari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI is the imaging modality used for the assessment of infratentorial neoplasms. Although Computed Tomography (CT provides better demonstration of small or subtle calcifications within tumors. OBJECTIVES Study is done to assess the potential of MRI in characterisation of different tumors in posterior fossa by evaluating various unenhanced and gadolinium enhanced sequences and to compare high resolution FSE MRI sequences with routine FSE MRI sequences in diagnosing posterior fossa brain tumors. Also correlate findings on Magnetic Resonance Imaging with Pathological diagnosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS A total of 52 patients were diagnosed by CT brain as having posterior fossa brain for a year of 2 years were included in the study. In all studies MR imaging was performed with a clinical 1.5 T system (General electrical medical systems. A dedicated phased-array coil was used. RESULTS The age group ranged from 1 year to 60 years, majority were between 1 to 20 years (39%. Slight male preponderance was seen (males 29, females 23. Commonest tumor encountered in our study was vestibular schwannoma. DWI alone can differentiate different pediatric posterior fossa brain tumors. One case of pilocytic astrocytoma showed solid lesion instead of typical cystic lesion with mural nodule. One case AT-RT showed 2 lesions one in cerebrum, one in CP angle. Common feature being intra-axial lesion involving cerebellum. MRI was able to predict diagnosis in 50 of the 52 tumors. CONCLUSION Magnetic Resonance Imaging was found to be a highly sensitive imaging procedure and method of choice for posterior fossa brain tumors.

  16. Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, A N

    1996-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables

  17. Laser Raman detection for oral cancer based on an adaptive Gaussian process classification method with posterior probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du, Zhanwei; Yang, Yongjian; Bai, Yuan; Wang, Lijun; Su, Le; Chen, Yong; Li, Xianchang; Zhou, Xiaodong; Shen, Aiguo; Hu, Jiming; Jia, Jun

    2013-01-01

    The existing methods for early and differential diagnosis of oral cancer are limited due to the unapparent early symptoms and the imperfect imaging examination methods. In this paper, the classification models of oral adenocarcinoma, carcinoma tissues and a control group with just four features are established by utilizing the hybrid Gaussian process (HGP) classification algorithm, with the introduction of the mechanisms of noise reduction and posterior probability. HGP shows much better performance in the experimental results. During the experimental process, oral tissues were divided into three groups, adenocarcinoma (n = 87), carcinoma (n = 100) and the control group (n = 134). The spectral data for these groups were collected. The prospective application of the proposed HGP classification method improved the diagnostic sensitivity to 56.35% and the specificity to about 70.00%, and resulted in a Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.36. It is proved that the utilization of HGP in LRS detection analysis for the diagnosis of oral cancer gives accurate results. The prospect of application is also satisfactory. (paper)

  18. Laser Raman detection for oral cancer based on an adaptive Gaussian process classification method with posterior probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Zhanwei; Yang, Yongjian; Bai, Yuan; Wang, Lijun; Su, Le; Chen, Yong; Li, Xianchang; Zhou, Xiaodong; Jia, Jun; Shen, Aiguo; Hu, Jiming

    2013-03-01

    The existing methods for early and differential diagnosis of oral cancer are limited due to the unapparent early symptoms and the imperfect imaging examination methods. In this paper, the classification models of oral adenocarcinoma, carcinoma tissues and a control group with just four features are established by utilizing the hybrid Gaussian process (HGP) classification algorithm, with the introduction of the mechanisms of noise reduction and posterior probability. HGP shows much better performance in the experimental results. During the experimental process, oral tissues were divided into three groups, adenocarcinoma (n = 87), carcinoma (n = 100) and the control group (n = 134). The spectral data for these groups were collected. The prospective application of the proposed HGP classification method improved the diagnostic sensitivity to 56.35% and the specificity to about 70.00%, and resulted in a Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.36. It is proved that the utilization of HGP in LRS detection analysis for the diagnosis of oral cancer gives accurate results. The prospect of application is also satisfactory.

  19. Femoral loosening of high-flexion total knee arthroplasty: The effect of posterior cruciate ligament retention and bone quality reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zelle, J.; van de Groes, S.A.W.; De Waal Malefijt, M.C.; Verdonschot, Nicolaas Jacobus Joseph

    2014-01-01

    High-flexion total knee arthroplasty (TKA) may be more sensitive to femoral loosening than conventional TKA as the knee joint force increases during deep flexion. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether the probability of femoral loosening is equal in posterior cruciate ligament (PCL)

  20. Uncommon evolution of probable central nervous system histoplasmosis: from leptomeningitis to posterior fossa granuloma. A case report with magnetic resonance images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrilho, Paulo Eduardo Mestrinelli; Alves, Orival

    2006-01-01

    We report a case of a young immunocompetent patient with probable central nervous system histoplasmosis with evolutive peculiar findings seen on magnetic resonance imaging. Leptomeningeal thickening was initially observed which subsequently became a posterior fossa granuloma. The diagnosis of fungal infection was only reached by histopathological study and the treatment was based on long term therapy with fluconazole wth good initial response. (author)

  1. The role of high-resolution CT in evaluating disease of the posterior tympanum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Funai, Hiroaki; Takubo, Masamichi; Iinuma, Toshitaka; Horiuchi, Yasuharu; Ichimura, Keiichi; Oyama, Kazuyuki.

    1989-01-01

    The posterior tympanum consists of several irregular eminences, ridges, and sinuses. These sinuses do not communicate with the mastoid air cell system, and cholesteatoma and/or granulation tissue prefer to fill them. This area cannot be visualized with ease by the usual surgical approach, and is thus quite important for surgeons. Recent developments in high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) allow more than ever precise identification of subtle changes in the posterior tympanum. Axial HRCT sections provide essential information for the preoperative evaluation of the posterior tympanum. The performance of surgeons has been promoted both in evaluation and treatment planning of patient with suspected posterior tympanic lesions. HRCT findings were compared with the operative findings in 52 patients (54 ears) who had the operation for chronic otitis media. Important findings by HRCT diagnosis of posterior tympanum are as follows; (1) Bone destruction in the posterosuperior part of the tympanic anulus and in the lateral wall of the facial sinus are the important findings for the diagnosis of invasion of cholesteatoma in the posterior tympanum. (2) Similarly important finding is the bone destruction of the pyramidal eminence. This was found in 6 of 9 cases with cholesteatomas extending into the sinus tympani. (3) The soft tissue density in the posterior tympanum does not necessarily indicate pathological processes. Effusion in the posterior tympanum is imaged as soft tissue density, and can not be differentiated from cholesteatoma or granulation by present HRCT. (author)

  2. Focus in High School Mathematics: Statistics and Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Council of Teachers of Mathematics, 2009

    2009-01-01

    Reasoning about and making sense of statistics and probability are essential to students' future success. This volume belongs to a series that supports National Council of Teachers of Mathematics' (NCTM's) "Focus in High School Mathematics: Reasoning and Sense Making" by providing additional guidance for making reasoning and sense making part of…

  3. Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bremer, J. E.; Harter, T.

    2012-08-01

    Onsite wastewater treatment systems are common in rural and semi-rural areas around the world; in the US, about 25-30% of households are served by a septic (onsite) wastewater treatment system, and many property owners also operate their own domestic well nearby. Site-specific conditions and local groundwater flow are often ignored when installing septic systems and wells. In areas with small lots (thus high spatial septic system densities), shallow domestic wells are prone to contamination by septic system leachate. Mass balance approaches have been used to determine a maximum septic system density that would prevent contamination of groundwater resources. In this study, a source area model based on detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling is applied for a stochastic analysis of domestic well contamination by septic leachate. Specifically, we determine the probability that a source area overlaps with a septic system drainfield as a function of aquifer properties, septic system density and drainfield size. We show that high spatial septic system density poses a high probability of pumping septic system leachate. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has a strong influence on the intersection probability. We find that mass balance calculations applied on a regional scale underestimate the contamination risk of individual drinking water wells by septic systems. This is particularly relevant for contaminants released at high concentrations, for substances that experience limited attenuation, and those that are harmful even at low concentrations (e.g., pathogens).

  4. Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Bremer

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Onsite wastewater treatment systems are common in rural and semi-rural areas around the world; in the US, about 25–30% of households are served by a septic (onsite wastewater treatment system, and many property owners also operate their own domestic well nearby. Site-specific conditions and local groundwater flow are often ignored when installing septic systems and wells. In areas with small lots (thus high spatial septic system densities, shallow domestic wells are prone to contamination by septic system leachate. Mass balance approaches have been used to determine a maximum septic system density that would prevent contamination of groundwater resources. In this study, a source area model based on detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling is applied for a stochastic analysis of domestic well contamination by septic leachate. Specifically, we determine the probability that a source area overlaps with a septic system drainfield as a function of aquifer properties, septic system density and drainfield size. We show that high spatial septic system density poses a high probability of pumping septic system leachate. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has a strong influence on the intersection probability. We find that mass balance calculations applied on a regional scale underestimate the contamination risk of individual drinking water wells by septic systems. This is particularly relevant for contaminants released at high concentrations, for substances that experience limited attenuation, and those that are harmful even at low concentrations (e.g., pathogens.

  5. High probability of disease in angina pectoris patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høilund-Carlsen, Poul F.; Johansen, Allan; Vach, Werner

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: According to most current guidelines, stable angina pectoris patients with a high probability of having coronary artery disease can be reliably identified clinically. OBJECTIVES: To examine the reliability of clinical evaluation with or without an at-rest electrocardiogram (ECG......) in patients with a high probability of coronary artery disease. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A prospective series of 357 patients referred for coronary angiography (CA) for suspected stable angina pectoris were examined by a trained physician who judged their type of pain and Canadian Cardiovascular Society grade...... on CA. Of the patients who had also an abnormal at-rest ECG, 14% to 21% of men and 42% to 57% of women had normal MPS. Sex-related differences were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical prediction appears to be unreliable. Addition of at-rest ECG data results in some improvement, particularly...

  6. Biomechanical analysis of posterior cruciate ligament retaining high-flexion total knee arthroplasty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zelle, J.; van der Zanden, A.C.; De Waal Malefijt, M.; Verdonschot, Nicolaas Jacobus Joseph

    2009-01-01

    Background High-flexion knee replacements have been developed to accommodate a large range of flexion (>120°) after total knee arthroplasty. Both posterior cruciate ligament retaining and sacrificing high-flexion knee designs have been marketed. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the

  7. Neutron emission probability at high excitation and isospin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aggarwal, Mamta

    2005-01-01

    One-neutron and two-neutron emission probability at different excitations and varying isospin have been studied. Several degrees of freedom like deformation, rotations, temperature, isospin fluctuations and shell structure are incorporated via statistical theory of hot rotating nuclei

  8. High-resolution urban flood modelling - a joint probability approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartnett, Michael; Olbert, Agnieszka; Nash, Stephen

    2017-04-01

    (Divoky et al., 2005). Nevertheless, such events occur and in Ireland alone there are several cases of serious damage due to flooding resulting from a combination of high sea water levels and river flows driven by the same meteorological conditions (e.g. Olbert et al. 2015). A November 2009 fluvial-coastal flooding of Cork City bringing €100m loss was one such incident. This event was used by Olbert et al. (2015) to determine processes controlling urban flooding and is further explored in this study to elaborate on coastal and fluvial flood mechanisms and their roles in controlling water levels. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology to assess combined effect of multiple source flooding on flood probability and severity in urban areas and to establish a set of conditions that dictate urban flooding due to extreme climatic events. These conditions broadly combine physical flood drivers (such as coastal and fluvial processes), their mechanisms and thresholds defining flood severity. The two main physical processes controlling urban flooding: high sea water levels (coastal flooding) and high river flows (fluvial flooding), and their threshold values for which flood is likely to occur, are considered in this study. Contribution of coastal and fluvial drivers to flooding and their impacts are assessed in a two-step process. The first step involves frequency analysis and extreme value statistical modelling of storm surges, tides and river flows and ultimately the application of joint probability method to estimate joint exceedence return periods for combination of surges, tide and river flows. In the second step, a numerical model of Cork Harbour MSN_Flood comprising a cascade of four nested high-resolution models is used to perform simulation of flood inundation under numerous hypothetical coastal and fluvial flood scenarios. The risk of flooding is quantified based on a range of physical aspects such as the extent and depth of inundation (Apel et al

  9. Uncommon evolution of probable central nervous system histoplasmosis: from leptomeningitis to posterior fossa granuloma. A case report with magnetic resonance images; Evolucao incomum de provavel histoplasmose de sistema nervoso central: de leptomeningite para granuloma da fossa posterior. Relato de caso com imagens por ressonancia magnetica

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    Carrilho, Paulo Eduardo Mestrinelli; Alves, Orival [Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Parana - UNIOESTE, Cascavel, PR (Brazil). Curso de Medicina. Disciplina de Neurologia e Neurocirurgia]. E-mail: carrilho@certto.com.br; Budant, Manfredo [UNITOM - Unidade de Diagnostico por Imagem, Cascavel, PR (Brazil). Centro de Tomografia; Bozo, Marlon K.; Meirelles, Noel [Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Parana - UNIOESTE, Cascavel, PR (Brazil). Curso de Medicina; Bueno, Alexandre Galvao [ANATOM - Instituto de Anatomia Patologica de Cascavel, PR (Brazil)

    2006-01-15

    We report a case of a young immunocompetent patient with probable central nervous system histoplasmosis with evolutive peculiar findings seen on magnetic resonance imaging. Leptomeningeal thickening was initially observed which subsequently became a posterior fossa granuloma. The diagnosis of fungal infection was only reached by histopathological study and the treatment was based on long term therapy with fluconazole wth good initial response. (author)

  10. ROLE OF HIGH RESOLUTION ULTRASONOGRAPHY IN THE EVALUATION OF POSTERIOR SEGMENT LESIONS OF THE EYE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rashmi Nagaraju

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGRO UND: The superficial location of the eye, its cystic composition, and the advent of high - frequency ultrasound make sonography ideal for imaging the eye. Ultrasonography is a simple, readily available, non - invasive, non - ionizing, highly accurate, real time and cost effective modality . OBJECTIVES: 1 To evaluate the accuracy of high resolution B - mode ultrasonography in the diagnosis of posterior segment lesions of eye as compared to ophthalmoscopic examination particularly in cases of opaque conducting media . 2 To evaluate sonographic appearances of various posterior segment lesions of the eye . MATERIALS AND METHODS: 1 A prospective study was carried out on 62 cases with suspected posterior segment lesions of eye. All patients clinically suspected to have p osterior segment lesions in the presence of opaque conducting media were included in the study. Cases suspected to have isolated anterior segmental and extra ocular lesions were excluded. 2 HRUS was performed with Philips IU22 using high frequency probe ( 5 to 17 MHz utilizing contact method. 3 Sonological diagnosis was made based on sonographic features such as location, morphology, echo pattern, color Doppler characteristics, kinetics of the lesion with eye movements and acoustic characteristics of the lesion. 4 Subsequent clinical, lab investigations, surgical and histopathological examinations were carried out as applicable and final diagnosis was made which was correlated with the sonological diagnosis. Sonological diagnosis was also compared with op hthalmoscopic diagnosis. STATISTICAL ANALYSES: The validities and diagnostic accuracies of high resolution ultrasound and ophthalmoscopic examinations were calculated and compared. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: 1 Ultrasound was the initial imaging modality opt ed in most of the cases as it was readily available, simple and cost effective modality. It establishes the diagnosis in significant number of cases superseding the accuracy

  11. Assessing Goodness of Fit in Item Response Theory with Nonparametric Models: A Comparison of Posterior Probabilities and Kernel-Smoothing Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sueiro, Manuel J.; Abad, Francisco J.

    2011-01-01

    The distance between nonparametric and parametric item characteristic curves has been proposed as an index of goodness of fit in item response theory in the form of a root integrated squared error index. This article proposes to use the posterior distribution of the latent trait as the nonparametric model and compares the performance of an index…

  12. Randomized trial of low versus high carbon dioxide insufflation pressures in posterior retroperitoneoscopic adrenalectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Sheila; Norlén, Olov; Bender, Kyle; Davidson, Joanne; Bajenov, Sonya; Fahey, David; Li, Shawn; Sidhu, Stan; Sywak, Mark

    2018-05-01

    Posterior retroperitoneoscopic adrenalectomy has gained widespread acceptance for the removal of benign adrenal tumors. Higher insufflation pressures using carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are required, although the ideal starting pressure is unclear. This prospective, randomized, single-blinded, study aims to compare physiologic differences with 2 different CO 2 insufflation pressures during posterior retroperitoneoscopic adrenalectomy. Participants were randomly assigned to a starting insufflation pressure of 20 mm Hg (low pressure) or 25 mm Hg (high pressure). The primary outcome measure was partial pressure of arterial CO 2 at 60 minutes. Secondary outcomes included end-tidal CO 2 , arterial pH, blood pressure, and peak airway pressure. Breaches of protocol to change insufflation pressure were permitted if required and were recorded. A prospective randomized trial including 31 patients (low pressure: n = 16; high pressure: n = 15) was undertaken. At 60 minutes, the high pressure group had greater mean partial pressure of arterial CO 2 (64 vs 50 mm Hg, P = .003) and end-tidal CO 2 (54 vs 45 mm Hg, P = .008) and a lesser pH (7.21 vs 7.29, P = .0005). There were no significant differences in base excess, peak airway pressure, operative time, or duration of hospital stay. Clinically indicated protocol breaches were more common in the low pressure than the high pressure group (8 vs 3, P = .03). In posterior retroperitoneoscopic adrenalectomy, greater insufflation pressures are associated with greater partial pressure of arterial CO 2 and end-tidal CO 2 and lesser pH at 60 minutes, be significant. Commencing with lesser CO 2 insufflation pressures decreases intraoperative acidosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. High-resolution elastic recoil detection utilizing Bayesian probability theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neumaier, P.; Dollinger, G.; Bergmaier, A.; Genchev, I.; Goergens, L.; Fischer, R.; Ronning, C.; Hofsaess, H.

    2001-01-01

    Elastic recoil detection (ERD) analysis is improved in view of depth resolution and the reliability of the measured spectra. Good statistics at even low ion fluences is obtained utilizing a large solid angle of 5 msr at the Munich Q3D magnetic spectrograph and using a 40 MeV 197 Au beam. In this way the elemental depth profiles are not essentially altered during analysis even if distributions with area densities below 1x10 14 atoms/cm 2 are measured. As the energy spread due to the angular acceptance is fully eliminated by ion-optical and numerical corrections, an accurate and reliable apparatus function is derived. It allows to deconvolute the measured spectra using the adaptive kernel method, a maximum entropy concept in the framework of Bayesian probability theory. In addition, the uncertainty of the reconstructed spectra is quantified. The concepts are demonstrated at 13 C depth profiles measured at ultra-thin films of tetrahedral amorphous carbon (ta-C). Depth scales of those profiles are given with an accuracy of 1.4x10 15 atoms/cm 2

  14. Posterior fossa abnormalities in high-risk term infants: comparison of ultrasound and MRI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steggerda, S.J.; Smits-Wintjens, V.E.H.J.; Verbon, P.; Walther, F.J. [Leiden University Medical Centre, Department of Neonatology, Leiden (Netherlands); Bruine, F.T. de [Leiden University Medical Centre, Department of Radiology, Leiden (Netherlands); Wezel-Meijler, G. van [Leiden University Medical Centre, Department of Radiology, Leiden (Netherlands); Isala Hospital, Department of Neonatology, Zwolle (Netherlands)

    2015-09-15

    We aimed to assess the characteristics of posterior fossa (PF) abnormalities in a cohort of high-risk term neonates, as well as the diagnostic performance of cranial ultrasound (CUS) with additional mastoid fontanelle (MF) views for the detection of these abnormalities, with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) being the reference standard. In this retrospective study, 113 term neonates with CUS and subsequent MRI were included. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of routine CUS and CUS with MF views were calculated. Posterior fossa abnormalities were diagnosed on CUS in 46 of 113 infants. MRI confirmed these findings in 43 and showed additional abnormalities in 32 infants. The sensitivity and specificity of anterior fontanelle views for major PF abnormalities as seen on MRI were 16 % and 99 %. Adding MF views increased the sensitivity of US to 82 %. The sensitivity and specificity of MF views for the detection of any (major or minor) PF abnormality were 57 % and 95 %. Especially acute hypoxic-ischemic injury and small subdural and punctate cerebellar haemorrhage remained undetected by CUS. PF abnormalities are frequent in high-risk term infants. MF-CUS enables early diagnosis of major PF abnormalities. We therefore advocate to perform MF-CUS in high-risk term neonates. (orig.)

  15. Posterior fossa abnormalities in high-risk term infants: comparison of ultrasound and MRI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steggerda, S.J.; Smits-Wintjens, V.E.H.J.; Verbon, P.; Walther, F.J.; Bruine, F.T. de; Wezel-Meijler, G. van

    2015-01-01

    We aimed to assess the characteristics of posterior fossa (PF) abnormalities in a cohort of high-risk term neonates, as well as the diagnostic performance of cranial ultrasound (CUS) with additional mastoid fontanelle (MF) views for the detection of these abnormalities, with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) being the reference standard. In this retrospective study, 113 term neonates with CUS and subsequent MRI were included. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of routine CUS and CUS with MF views were calculated. Posterior fossa abnormalities were diagnosed on CUS in 46 of 113 infants. MRI confirmed these findings in 43 and showed additional abnormalities in 32 infants. The sensitivity and specificity of anterior fontanelle views for major PF abnormalities as seen on MRI were 16 % and 99 %. Adding MF views increased the sensitivity of US to 82 %. The sensitivity and specificity of MF views for the detection of any (major or minor) PF abnormality were 57 % and 95 %. Especially acute hypoxic-ischemic injury and small subdural and punctate cerebellar haemorrhage remained undetected by CUS. PF abnormalities are frequent in high-risk term infants. MF-CUS enables early diagnosis of major PF abnormalities. We therefore advocate to perform MF-CUS in high-risk term neonates. (orig.)

  16. Probability based high temperature engineering creep and structural fire resistance

    CERN Document Server

    Razdolsky, Leo

    2017-01-01

    This volume on structural fire resistance is for aerospace, structural, and fire prevention engineers; architects, and educators. It bridges the gap between prescriptive- and performance-based methods and simplifies very complex and comprehensive computer analyses to the point that the structural fire resistance and high temperature creep deformations will have a simple, approximate analytical expression that can be used in structural analysis and design. The book emphasizes methods of the theory of engineering creep (stress-strain diagrams) and mathematical operations quite distinct from those of solid mechanics absent high-temperature creep deformations, in particular the classical theory of elasticity and structural engineering. Dr. Razdolsky’s previous books focused on methods of computing the ultimate structural design load to the different fire scenarios. The current work is devoted to the computing of the estimated ultimate resistance of the structure taking into account the effect of high temperatur...

  17. High probability of comorbidities in bronchial asthma in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heck, S; Al-Shobash, S; Rapp, D; Le, D D; Omlor, A; Bekhit, A; Flaig, M; Al-Kadah, B; Herian, W; Bals, R; Wagenpfeil, S; Dinh, Q T

    2017-04-21

    Clinical experience has shown that allergic and non-allergic respiratory, metabolic, mental, and cardiovascular disorders sometimes coexist with bronchial asthma. However, no study has been carried out that calculates the chance of manifestation of these disorders with bronchial asthma in Saarland and Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany. Using ICD10 diagnoses from health care institutions, the present study systematically analyzed the co-prevalence and odds ratios of comorbidities in the asthma population in Germany. The odds ratios were adjusted for age and sex for all comorbidities for patients with asthma vs. without asthma. Bronchial asthma was strongly associated with allergic and with a lesser extent to non-allergic comorbidities: OR 7.02 (95%CI:6.83-7.22) for allergic rhinitis; OR 4.98 (95%CI:4.67-5.32) allergic conjunctivitis; OR 2.41 (95%CI:2.33-2.52) atopic dermatitis; OR 2.47 (95%CI:2.16-2.82) food allergy, and OR 1.69 (95%CI:1.61-1.78) drug allergy. Interestingly, increased ORs were found for respiratory diseases: 2.06 (95%CI:1.64-2.58) vocal dysfunction; 1.83 (95%CI:1.74-1.92) pneumonia; 1.78 (95%CI:1.73-1.84) sinusitis; 1.71 (95%CI:1.65-1.78) rhinopharyngitis; 2.55 (95%CI:2.03-3.19) obstructive sleep apnea; 1.42 (95%CI:1.25-1.61) pulmonary embolism, and 3.75 (95%CI:1.64-8.53) bronchopulmonary aspergillosis. Asthmatics also suffer from psychiatric, metabolic, cardiac or other comorbidities. Myocardial infarction (OR 0.86, 95%CI:0.79-0.94) did not coexist with asthma. Based on the calculated chances of manifestation for these comorbidities, especially allergic and respiratory, to a lesser extent also metabolic, cardiovascular, and mental disorders should be taken into consideration in the diagnostic and treatment strategy of bronchial asthma. PREVALENCE OF CO-EXISTING DISEASES IN GERMANY: Patients in Germany with bronchial asthma are highly likely to suffer from co-existing diseases and their treatments should reflect this. Quoc Thai Dinh at Saarland

  18. Identifying Changes in the Probability of High Temperature, High Humidity Heat Wave Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, T.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding how heat waves will respond to climate change is critical for adequate planning and adaptation. While temperature is the primary determinant of heat wave severity, humidity has been shown to play a key role in heat wave intensity with direct links to human health and safety. Here we investigate the individual contributions of temperature and specific humidity to extreme heat wave conditions in recent decades. Using global NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II daily data, we identify regional variability in the joint probability distribution of humidity and temperature. We also identify a statistically significant positive trend in humidity over the eastern U.S. during heat wave events, leading to an increased probability of high humidity, high temperature events. The extent to which we can expect this trend to continue under climate change is complicated due to variability between CMIP5 models, in particular among projections of humidity. However, our results support the notion that heat wave dynamics are characterized by more than high temperatures alone, and understanding and quantifying the various components of the heat wave system is crucial for forecasting future impacts.

  19. Increasing Classroom Compliance: Using a High-Probability Command Sequence with Noncompliant Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Axelrod, Michael I.; Zank, Amber J.

    2012-01-01

    Noncompliance is one of the most problematic behaviors within the school setting. One strategy to increase compliance of noncompliant students is a high-probability command sequence (HPCS; i.e., a set of simple commands in which an individual is likely to comply immediately prior to the delivery of a command that has a lower probability of…

  20. High But Not Low Probability of Gain Elicits a Positive Feeling Leading to the Framing Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosling, Corentin J; Moutier, Sylvain

    2017-01-01

    Human risky decision-making is known to be highly susceptible to profit-motivated responses elicited by the way in which options are framed. In fact, studies investigating the framing effect have shown that the choice between sure and risky options depends on how these options are presented. Interestingly, the probability of gain of the risky option has been highlighted as one of the main factors causing variations in susceptibility to the framing effect. However, while it has been shown that high probabilities of gain of the risky option systematically lead to framing bias, questions remain about the influence of low probabilities of gain. Therefore, the first aim of this paper was to clarify the respective roles of high and low probabilities of gain in the framing effect. Due to the difference between studies using a within- or between-subjects design, we conducted a first study investigating the respective roles of these designs. For both designs, we showed that trials with a high probability of gain led to the framing effect whereas those with a low probability did not. Second, as emotions are known to play a key role in the framing effect, we sought to determine whether they are responsible for such a debiasing effect of the low probability of gain. Our second study thus investigated the relationship between emotion and the framing effect depending on high and low probabilities. Our results revealed that positive emotion was related to risk-seeking in the loss frame, but only for trials with a high probability of gain. Taken together, these results support the interpretation that low probabilities of gain suppress the framing effect because they prevent the positive emotion of gain anticipation.

  1. High But Not Low Probability of Gain Elicits a Positive Feeling Leading to the Framing Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosling, Corentin J.; Moutier, Sylvain

    2017-01-01

    Human risky decision-making is known to be highly susceptible to profit-motivated responses elicited by the way in which options are framed. In fact, studies investigating the framing effect have shown that the choice between sure and risky options depends on how these options are presented. Interestingly, the probability of gain of the risky option has been highlighted as one of the main factors causing variations in susceptibility to the framing effect. However, while it has been shown that high probabilities of gain of the risky option systematically lead to framing bias, questions remain about the influence of low probabilities of gain. Therefore, the first aim of this paper was to clarify the respective roles of high and low probabilities of gain in the framing effect. Due to the difference between studies using a within- or between-subjects design, we conducted a first study investigating the respective roles of these designs. For both designs, we showed that trials with a high probability of gain led to the framing effect whereas those with a low probability did not. Second, as emotions are known to play a key role in the framing effect, we sought to determine whether they are responsible for such a debiasing effect of the low probability of gain. Our second study thus investigated the relationship between emotion and the framing effect depending on high and low probabilities. Our results revealed that positive emotion was related to risk-seeking in the loss frame, but only for trials with a high probability of gain. Taken together, these results support the interpretation that low probabilities of gain suppress the framing effect because they prevent the positive emotion of gain anticipation. PMID:28232808

  2. Probabilistic analysis of Millstone Unit 3 ultimate containment failure probability given high pressure: Chapter 14

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bickel, J.H.

    1983-01-01

    The quantification of the containment event trees in the Millstone Unit 3 Probabilistic Safety Study utilizes a conditional probability of failure given high pressure which is based on a new approach. The generation of this conditional probability was based on a weakest link failure mode model which considered contributions from a number of overlapping failure modes. This overlap effect was due to a number of failure modes whose mean failure pressures were clustered within a 5 psi range and which had uncertainties due to variances in material strengths and analytical uncertainties which were between 9 and 15 psi. Based on a review of possible probability laws to describe the failure probability of individual structural failure modes, it was determined that a Weibull probability law most adequately described the randomness in the physical process of interest. The resultant conditional probability of failure is found to have a median failure pressure of 132.4 psia. The corresponding 5-95 percentile values are 112 psia and 146.7 psia respectively. The skewed nature of the conditional probability of failure vs. pressure results in a lower overall containment failure probability for an appreciable number of the severe accident sequences of interest, but also probabilities which are more rigorously traceable from first principles

  3. Posterior encephalopathy with vasospasm: MRI and angiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weidauer, S.; Gaa, J.; Lanfermann, H.; Zanella, F.E.; Sitzer, M.; Hefner, R.

    2003-01-01

    Posterior encephalopathy is characterised by headache, impairment of consciousness, seizures and progressive visual loss. MRI shows bilateral, predominantly posterior, cortical and subcortical lesions with a distribution. Our aim was to analyse the MRI lesion pattern and angiographic findings because the pathophysiology of posterior encephalopathy is incompletely understood. We report three patients with clinical and imaging findings consistent with posterior encephalopathy who underwent serial MRI including diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and construction of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps, and four-vessel digital subtraction angiography (DSA). DWI revealed symmetrical subcortical and cortical parieto-occipital high signal. High and also low ADCs indicated probable vasogenic and cytotoxic oedema. On follow-up there was focal cortical laminar necrosis, while the white-matter lesions resolved almost completely, except in the arterial border zones. DSA revealed diffuse arterial narrowing, slightly more marked in the posterior circulation. These findings suggest that posterior encephalopathy may in some cases be due to diffuse, severe vasospasm affecting especially in the parieto-occipital grey matter, with its higher vulnerability to ischemia. Cerebral vasospasm due to digitoxin intoxication, resulting in posterior encephalopathy, has not yet been described previously. (orig.)

  4. High-resolution MRI of cranial nerves in posterior fossa at 3.0 T.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zi-Yi; Chen, Jing; Liang, Qi-Zhou; Liao, Hai-Yan; Cheng, Qiong-Yue; Fu, Shui-Xi; Chen, Cai-Xiang; Yu, Dan

    2013-02-01

    To evaluate the influence of high-resolution imaging obtainable with the higher field strength of 3.0 T on the visualization of the brain nerves in the posterior fossa. In total, 20 nerves were investigated on MRI of 12 volunteers each and selected for comparison, respectively, with the FSE sequences with 5 mm and 2 mm section thicknesses and gradient recalled echo (GRE) sequences acquired with a 3.0-T scanner. The MR images were evaluated by three independent readers who rated image quality according to depiction of anatomic detail and contrast with use of a rating scale. In general, decrease of the slice thickness showed a significant increase in the detection of nerves as well as in the image quality characteristics. Comparing FSE and GRE imaging, the course of brain nerves and brainstem vessels was visualized best with use of the three-dimensional (3D) pulse sequence. The comparison revealed the clear advantage of a thin section. The increased resolution enabled immediate identification of all brainstem nerves. GRE sequence most distinctly and confidently depicted pertinent structures and enables 3D reconstruction to illustrate complex relations of the brainstem. Copyright © 2013 Hainan Medical College. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. High-resolution MRI of cranial nerves in posterior fossa at 3.0 T

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zi-Yi Guo; Jing Chen; Qi-Zhou Liang; Hai-Yan Liao; Qiong-Yue Cheng; Shui-Xi Fu; Cai-Xiang Chen; Dan Yu

    2013-01-01

    Objective:To evaluate the influence of high-resolution imaging obtainable with the higher field strength of3.0T on the visualization of the brain nerves in the posterior fossa.Methods:In total,20 nerves were investigated onMRI of12 volunteers each and selected for comparison, respectively, with theFSE sequences with5 mm and2 mm section thicknesses and gradient recalled echo(GRE) sequences acquired with a3.0-T scanner.TheMR images were evaluated by three independent readers who rated image quality according to depiction of anatomic detail and contrast with use of a rating scale.Results:In general, decrease of the slice thickness showed a significant increase in the detection of nerves as well as in the image quality characteristics. ComparingFSE andGRE imaging, the course of brain nerves and brainstem vessels was visualized best with use of the three-dimensional(3D) pulse sequence.Conclusions:The comparison revealed the clear advantage of a thin section.The increased resolution enabled immediate identification of all brainstem nerves.GRE sequence most distinctly and confidently depicted pertinent structures and enables3D reconstruction to illustrate complex relations of the brainstem.

  6. Neonatal posterior sagittal anorectoplasty for a subset of males with high anorectal malformations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilesh G Nagdeve

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To assess the results of primary posterior sagittal anorectoplasty (PSARP in male neonates with high anorectal malformations (ARM who on invertogram showed well descended rectum. Materials and Methods: Twelve full-term male neonates with high ARM over a period of one and half years were selected for primary PSARP based on the findings of invertogram. Primary PSARP was performed in all neonates with lower limit of rectal gas bubble at or below the ossified fifth sacral vertebra. The patients were followed-up for a period between three to four and half years. The clinical evaluation of fecal continence was performed using Pena′s criteria for assessment of continence. Results: All neonates underwent PSARP on second to fourth postnatal day. The fistula with urinary tract was found in 11 patients (seven had fistula to bulbar urethra and four to prostatic urethra. Rectal tapering was not required in any neonate. No patient had urinary problems after removal of catheter. Most of the neonates were discharged by ninth day. Postoperatively, two patients had superficial wound infection of anoplasty without any disruption or bowel retraction. Two patients had severe perianal excoriation. No patient had anorectal stenosis. Nine of twelve patients on follow-up had good voluntary bowel movements. Of the three patients who had grade I soiling two had recto-prostatic urethral fistula. No patient had constipation. All patients had good urinary stream. Conclusions: Repair of high ARM in male neonates with a well descended rectum is feasible without significant morbidity and good continence.

  7. Ectopic posterior pituitary high signal in preoperative and postoperative macroadenomas: dynamic MR imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Takahiro; Miki, Yukio; Takahashi, Jun A.; Kanagaki, Mitsunori; Yamamoto, Akira; Fushimi, Yasutaka; Okada, Tsutomu; Haque, Tabassum Laz; Hashimoto, Nobuo; Konishi, Junji; Togashi, Kaori

    2005-01-01

    Background and purpose: In patients with macroadenoma, posterior pituitary high signal (PPHS) on T1-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) imaging is sometimes observed in an ectopic location. The present study compared incidences of ectopic PPHS before and after macroadenoma surgery using MR imaging, including dynamic MR imaging to ascertain whether this ectopic change is irreversible. Materials and methods: MR imaging was performed preoperatively in 111 cases of macroadenoma, and then repeated more than 1-year postoperatively in 47 patients. Enhancement of PPHS was assessed using dynamic MR imaging. Areas of enhanced hyperintensity were considered true PPHS, and the relationship between presence and location of true PPHS and adenoma volume was analyzed. Moreover, changes in the presence and location of true PPHS were ascertained among the patients who underwent postoperative follow-up MR imaging. Results: Preoperatively, PPHS was seen only in the normal location in 29 patients (Group A: 26.1%). High signal was detected only in an ectopic location in 58 patients, and early enhancement of this ectopic high signal was confirmed by dynamic MR imaging in 56 patients (Group B: 50.5%). No PPHS was observed in 24 patients (Group C: 21.6%). Adenoma volume was significantly greater for Group B than for Group A (p < 0.001). Among the Group B patients who underwent MR imaging postoperatively (n = 31), the location of PPHS was not changed, except for two patients in whom PPHS was absent. Postoperatively, PPHS was not observed in the normal location in any patient in the Group B. Conclusions: Greater volume of adenoma is associated with a higher incidence of ectopic PPHS, and the ectopic change is irreversible

  8. The probability distribution of intergranular stress corrosion cracking life for sensitized 304 stainless steels in high temperature, high purity water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akashi, Masatsune; Kenjyo, Takao; Matsukura, Shinji; Kawamoto, Teruaki

    1984-01-01

    In order to discuss the probability distribution of intergranular stress corrsion carcking life for sensitized 304 stainless steels, a series of the creviced bent beem (CBB) and the uni-axial constant load tests were carried out in oxygenated high temperature, high purity water. The following concludions were resulted; (1) The initiation process of intergranular stress corrosion cracking has been assumed to be approximated by the Poisson stochastic process, based on the CBB test results. (2) The probability distribution of intergranular stress corrosion cracking life may consequently be approximated by the exponential probability distribution. (3) The experimental data could be fitted to the exponential probability distribution. (author)

  9. HORIZONTAL RIDGE AS A POSTERIOR POLE FINDING IN A HIGHLY MYOPIC EYE WITH DOME-SHAPED MACULA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, I Chia

    2017-07-01

    This article describes a case with a highly myopic eye and a posterior pole with ridge-like lesions. Case report. A 72-year-old man with unilateral high myopia showed poor vision and an extremely elongated axial length in his right eye, but normal vision and normal axial length in his left eye. He was examined using fundus examination and optical coherence tomography, and revealed to have dome-shaped macula with two horizontal ridges connecting the optic disc and the macula in his highly-myopic eye. The findings suggest that a dome-shaped macula may not be limited to the macula area, but may involve the whole posterior pole and is potentially involved in the elongation of highly myopic eyeballs.

  10. Nadir creatinine in posterior urethral valves: How high is low enough?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, R; King, T; Nicoara, C-D; Bader, M; McCarthy, L; Chandran, H; Parashar, K

    2015-12-01

    Large retrospective studies of people with posterior urethral valves (PUV) have reported chronic renal insufficiency (CRI) in up to one third of the participants and end-stage renal failure in up to one quarter of them. Nadir creatinine (lowest creatinine during the first year following diagnosis) is the recognised prognostic indicator for renal outcome in PUV, the most commonly used cut-off being 1 mg/dl (88.4 umol/l). To conduct a statistical analysis of nadir creatinine in PUV patients in order to identify the optimal cut-off level as a prognostic indicator for CRI. Patients treated by endoscopic valve ablation at the present institution between 1993 and 2004 were reviewed. Chronic renal insufficiency was defined as CKD2 or higher. Statistical methods included receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, Fisher exact test and diagnostic utility tests. Statistical significance was defined as P creatinine was identified in 96 patients. The median follow-up was 9.4 (IQR 7.0, 13.4) years. A total of 29 (30.2%) patients developed CRI, with nine (9.4%) reaching end-stage renal failure. On ROC analysis, Nadir creatinine was highly prognostic for future CRI, with an Area Under the Curve of 0.887 (P creatinine >88.4 umol/l compared with 19 of 86 (22.2%) patients with lower nadir creatinine (P creatinine cut-off of 88.4 umol/l gave a specificity of 100%, but poor sensitivity of 34.5%. Lowering the cut-off to 75 umol/l resulted in improvement in all diagnostic utility tests (Table). All 14 (100%) patients with nadir creatinine >75 umol/l developed CRI, compared with 15 of 82 (18.3%) patients with lower nadir creatinine (P creatinine creatinine >75 umol/l (OR 48.988; CI 4.9-490.11) to be independent risk factors for progression to CRI. Using cut-off values of 35 umol/l and 75 umol/l, patients can be stratified into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, with development of CRI in 5.3%, 28.3% and 100%, respectively (P creatinine >75 umol/l (0.85

  11. Decomposition of conditional probability for high-order symbolic Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melnik, S. S.; Usatenko, O. V.

    2017-07-01

    The main goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the conditional probability function of random stationary ergodic symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. We elaborate on a decomposition procedure for the conditional probability function of sequences considered to be high-order Markov chains. We represent the conditional probability function as the sum of multilinear memory function monomials of different orders (from zero up to the chain order). This allows us to introduce a family of Markov chain models and to construct artificial sequences via a method of successive iterations, taking into account at each step increasingly high correlations among random elements. At weak correlations, the memory functions are uniquely expressed in terms of the high-order symbolic correlation functions. The proposed method fills the gap between two approaches, namely the likelihood estimation and the additive Markov chains. The obtained results may have applications for sequential approximation of artificial neural network training.

  12. Burden of high fracture probability worldwide: secular increases 2010-2040.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odén, A; McCloskey, E V; Kanis, J A; Harvey, N C; Johansson, H

    2015-09-01

    The number of individuals aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture worldwide in 2010 was estimated at 158 million and is set to double by 2040. The aim of this study was to quantify the number of individuals worldwide aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture in 2010 and 2040. A threshold of high fracture probability was set at the age-specific 10-year probability of a major fracture (clinical vertebral, forearm, humeral or hip fracture) which was equivalent to that of a woman with a BMI of 24 kg/m(2) and a prior fragility fracture but no other clinical risk factors. The prevalence of high risk was determined worldwide and by continent using all available country-specific FRAX models and applied the population demography for each country. Twenty-one million men and 137 million women had a fracture probability at or above the threshold in the world for the year 2010. The greatest number of men and women at high risk were from Asia (55 %). Worldwide, the number of high-risk individuals is expected to double over the next 40 years. We conclude that individuals with high probability of osteoporotic fractures comprise a very significant disease burden to society, particularly in Asia, and that this burden is set to increase markedly in the future. These analyses provide a platform for the evaluation of risk assessment and intervention strategies.

  13. Multidetector computed tomographic pulmonary angiography in patients with a high clinical probability of pulmonary embolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moores, L; Kline, J; Portillo, A K; Resano, S; Vicente, A; Arrieta, P; Corres, J; Tapson, V; Yusen, R D; Jiménez, D

    2016-01-01

    ESSENTIALS: When high probability of pulmonary embolism (PE), sensitivity of computed tomography (CT) is unclear. We investigated the sensitivity of multidetector CT among 134 patients with a high probability of PE. A normal CT alone may not safely exclude PE in patients with a high clinical pretest probability. In patients with no clear alternative diagnosis after CTPA, further testing should be strongly considered. Whether patients with a negative multidetector computed tomographic pulmonary angiography (CTPA) result and a high clinical pretest probability of pulmonary embolism (PE) should be further investigated is controversial. This was a prospective investigation of the sensitivity of multidetector CTPA among patients with a priori clinical assessment of a high probability of PE according to the Wells criteria. Among patients with a negative CTPA result, the diagnosis of PE required at least one of the following conditions: ventilation/perfusion lung scan showing a high probability of PE in a patient with no history of PE, abnormal findings on venous ultrasonography in a patient without previous deep vein thrombosis at that site, or the occurrence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in a 3-month follow-up period after anticoagulation was withheld because of a negative multidetector CTPA result. We identified 498 patients with a priori clinical assessment of a high probability of PE and a completed CTPA study. CTPA excluded PE in 134 patients; in these patients, the pooled incidence of VTE was 5.2% (seven of 134 patients; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5-9.0). Five patients had VTEs that were confirmed by an additional imaging test despite a negative CTPA result (five of 48 patients; 10.4%; 95% CI 1.8-19.1), and two patients had objectively confirmed VTEs that occurred during clinical follow-up of at least 3 months (two of 86 patients; 2.3%; 95% CI 0-5.5). None of the patients had a fatal PE during follow-up. A normal multidetector CTPA result alone may not safely

  14. Imaging of posterior tibial tendon dysfunction—Comparison of high-resolution ultrasound and 3 T MRI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnoldner, Michael A., E-mail: michael.arnoldner@meduniwien.ac.at [Medical University of Vienna, Vienna General Hospital, Department of Biomedical Imaging and Image-guided Therapy, Währinger Gürtel 18-20, 1090 Vienna (Austria); Gruber, Michael [Medical University of Vienna, Vienna General Hospital, Department of Biomedical Imaging and Image-guided Therapy, Währinger Gürtel 18-20, 1090 Vienna (Austria); Syré, Stefanie [Medical University of Vienna, Vienna General Hospital, Department of Trauma-Surgery, Währinger Gürtel 18-20, 1090 Vienna (Austria); Kristen, Karl-Heinz [Foot & Ankle Centre Vienna, Alser Straße 43/8, 1080 Vienna (Austria); Trnka, Hans-Jörg [Foot & Ankle Centre Vienna, Alser Straße 43/8, 1080 Vienna (Austria); Orthopaedic Hospital Vienna, Speisinger Straße 109, 1130 Vienna (Austria); Kainberger, Franz; Bodner, Gerd [Medical University of Vienna, Vienna General Hospital, Department of Biomedical Imaging and Image-guided Therapy, Währinger Gürtel 18-20, 1090 Vienna (Austria)

    2015-09-15

    Highlights: • 18 MHz high-resolution ultrasound appears to be slightly more accurate than 3 T MRI in the diagnosis of PTTD. • High-resolution ultrasound is recommended as an initial diagnostic tool. • Long-lasting PTT discomfort may require MRI. • Other pathologies can mimic PTTD. - Abstract: Purpose: Posterior tibial tendon dysfunction is the most common cause of acquired asymmetric flatfoot deformity. The purpose of this study was to determine and compare the diagnostic value of MRI and high-resolution ultrasound (HR-US) in posterior tibial tendon dysfunction (PTTD), and assess their correlation with intraoperative findings. Materials and methods: We reviewed 23 posterior tibial tendons in 23 patients with clinical findings of PTTD (13 females, 10 males; mean age, 50 years) with 18 MHz HR-US and 3 T MRI. Surgical intervention was performed in nine patients. Results: HR-US findings included 2 complete tears, 6 partial tears, 10 tendons with tendinosis, and 5 unremarkable tendons. MRI demonstrated 2 complete tears, 7 partial tears, 10 tendons with tendinosis, and 4 unremarkable tendons. HR-US and MRI were concordant in 20/23 cases (87%). Image findings for HR-US were confirmed in six of nine patients (66.7%) by intraoperative inspection, whereas imaging findings for MRI were concordant with five of nine cases (55.6%). Conclusion: Our results indicate that HR-US can be considered slightly more accurate than MRI in the detection of PTTD.

  15. Mining of high utility-probability sequential patterns from uncertain databases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Binbin Zhang

    Full Text Available High-utility sequential pattern mining (HUSPM has become an important issue in the field of data mining. Several HUSPM algorithms have been designed to mine high-utility sequential patterns (HUPSPs. They have been applied in several real-life situations such as for consumer behavior analysis and event detection in sensor networks. Nonetheless, most studies on HUSPM have focused on mining HUPSPs in precise data. But in real-life, uncertainty is an important factor as data is collected using various types of sensors that are more or less accurate. Hence, data collected in a real-life database can be annotated with existing probabilities. This paper presents a novel pattern mining framework called high utility-probability sequential pattern mining (HUPSPM for mining high utility-probability sequential patterns (HUPSPs in uncertain sequence databases. A baseline algorithm with three optional pruning strategies is presented to mine HUPSPs. Moroever, to speed up the mining process, a projection mechanism is designed to create a database projection for each processed sequence, which is smaller than the original database. Thus, the number of unpromising candidates can be greatly reduced, as well as the execution time for mining HUPSPs. Substantial experiments both on real-life and synthetic datasets show that the designed algorithm performs well in terms of runtime, number of candidates, memory usage, and scalability for different minimum utility and minimum probability thresholds.

  16. High temperature triggers latent variation among individuals: oviposition rate and probability for outbreaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christer Björkman

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available It is anticipated that extreme population events, such as extinctions and outbreaks, will become more frequent as a consequence of climate change. To evaluate the increased probability of such events, it is crucial to understand the mechanisms involved. Variation between individuals in their response to climatic factors is an important consideration, especially if microevolution is expected to change the composition of populations.Here we present data of a willow leaf beetle species, showing high variation among individuals in oviposition rate at a high temperature (20 °C. It is particularly noteworthy that not all individuals responded to changes in temperature; individuals laying few eggs at 20 °C continued to do so when transferred to 12 °C, whereas individuals that laid many eggs at 20 °C reduced their oviposition and laid the same number of eggs as the others when transferred to 12 °C. When transferred back to 20 °C most individuals reverted to their original oviposition rate. Thus, high variation among individuals was only observed at the higher temperature. Using a simple population model and based on regional climate change scenarios we show that the probability of outbreaks increases if there is a realistic increase in the number of warm summers. The probability of outbreaks also increased with increasing heritability of the ability to respond to increased temperature.If climate becomes warmer and there is latent variation among individuals in their temperature response, the probability for outbreaks may increase. However, the likelihood for microevolution to play a role may be low. This conclusion is based on the fact that it has been difficult to show that microevolution affect the probability for extinctions. Our results highlight the urge for cautiousness when predicting the future concerning probabilities for extreme population events.

  17. Posterior fossa epidural hematoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kushner, M.J.; Luken, M.G. III

    1983-01-01

    CT demonstrated posterior fossa epidural hematoma in three patients with head trauma in whom this diagnosis was not clinically apparent. No patient was in stupor or coma and no patient experienced a lucid interval. Only one patient had signs referable to the posterior fossa. Two patients had occipital skull fracture disclosed by plain radiographs. CT revealed a unilateral biconvex hematoma in two cases, and a bilateral hematoma with supratentorial extension in the third. All patients underwent suboccipital craniectomy and recovered. Therapeutic success in these cases was facilitated by early CT and the rapid disclosure of the unsuspected posterior fossa lesions. CT showing contiguous hematoma below and above the tentorium cerebelli after posterior head trauma is highly suggestive of epidural hematoma arising from the posterior fossa. (orig.)

  18. Probability of fracture and life extension estimate of the high-flux isotope reactor vessel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, S.J.

    1998-01-01

    The state of the vessel steel embrittlement as a result of neutron irradiation can be measured by its increase in ductile-brittle transition temperature (DBTT) for fracture, often denoted by RT NDT for carbon steel. This transition temperature can be calibrated by the drop-weight test and, sometimes, by the Charpy impact test. The life extension for the high-flux isotope reactor (HFIR) vessel is calculated by using the method of fracture mechanics that is incorporated with the effect of the DBTT change. The failure probability of the HFIR vessel is limited as the life of the vessel by the reactor core melt probability of 10 -4 . The operating safety of the reactor is ensured by periodic hydrostatic pressure test (hydrotest). The hydrotest is performed in order to determine a safe vessel static pressure. The fracture probability as a result of the hydrostatic pressure test is calculated and is used to determine the life of the vessel. Failure to perform hydrotest imposes the limit on the life of the vessel. The conventional method of fracture probability calculations such as that used by the NRC-sponsored PRAISE CODE and the FAVOR CODE developed in this Laboratory are based on the Monte Carlo simulation. Heavy computations are required. An alternative method of fracture probability calculation by direct probability integration is developed in this paper. The present approach offers simple and expedient ways to obtain numerical results without losing any generality. In this paper, numerical results on (1) the probability of vessel fracture, (2) the hydrotest time interval, and (3) the hydrotest pressure as a result of the DBTT increase are obtained

  19. Prognostic value of stress echocardiography in women with high (⩾80%) probability of coronary artery disease

    OpenAIRE

    Davar, J; Roberts, E; Coghlan, J; Evans, T; Lipkin, D

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To assess the prognostic significance of stress echocardiography in women with a high probability of coronary artery disease (CAD).
SETTING—Secondary and tertiary cardiology unit at a university teaching hospital.
PARTICIPANTS—A total of 135 women (mean (SD) age 63 (9) years) with pre-test probability of CAD ⩾80% were selected from a database of patients investigated by treadmill or dobutamine stress echocardiography between 1995 and 1998.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Patients were followe...

  20. Traumatic Dislodgement of Tibial Polyethylene Insert after a High-Flex Posterior-Stabilized Total Knee Replacement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Felix Astoul Bonorino

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Many pathologic entities can produce a painful total knee replacement (TKR that may lead to potential prosthetic failure. Polyethylene insert dissociation from the tibial baseplate has been described most frequently after mobile-bearing and cruciate-retaining TKRs. However, only 3 tibial insert dislocations in primary fixed-bearing High-Flex posterior-stabilized TKRs have been reported. We present a new case of tibial insert dislocation in a High-Flex model that shares similarities and differences with the cases reported, facilitating the analysis of the potential causes, which still remain undefined.

  1. Spondylolisthesis and Posterior Instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niggemann, P.; Beyer, H.K.; Frey, H.; Grosskurth, D.; Simons, P.; Kuchta, J.

    2009-01-01

    We present the case of a patient with a spondylolisthesis of L5 on S1 due to spondylolysis at the level L5/S1. The vertebral slip was fixed and no anterior instability was found. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in an upright MRI scanner, posterior instability at the level of the spondylolytic defect of L5 was demonstrated. A structure, probably the hypertrophic ligament flava, arising from the spondylolytic defect was displaced toward the L5 nerve root, and a bilateral contact of the displaced structure with the L5 nerve root was shown in extension of the spine. To our knowledge, this is the first case described of posterior instability in patients with spondylolisthesis. The clinical implications of posterior instability are unknown; however, it is thought that this disorder is common and that it can only be diagnosed using upright MRI

  2. Spondylolisthesis and Posterior Instability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Niggemann, P.; Beyer, H.K.; Frey, H.; Grosskurth, D. (Privatpraxis fuer Upright MRT, Koeln (Germany)); Simons, P.; Kuchta, J. (Media Park Klinik, Koeln (Germany))

    2009-04-15

    We present the case of a patient with a spondylolisthesis of L5 on S1 due to spondylolysis at the level L5/S1. The vertebral slip was fixed and no anterior instability was found. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in an upright MRI scanner, posterior instability at the level of the spondylolytic defect of L5 was demonstrated. A structure, probably the hypertrophic ligament flava, arising from the spondylolytic defect was displaced toward the L5 nerve root, and a bilateral contact of the displaced structure with the L5 nerve root was shown in extension of the spine. To our knowledge, this is the first case described of posterior instability in patients with spondylolisthesis. The clinical implications of posterior instability are unknown; however, it is thought that this disorder is common and that it can only be diagnosed using upright MRI.

  3. Intelligent tutorial system for teaching of probability and statistics at high school in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Gudino Penaloza, Miguel Gonzalez Mendoza, Neil Hernandez Gress, Jaime Mora Vargas

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the implementation of an intelligent tutoring system dedicated to teaching probability and statistics atthe preparatory school (or high school in Mexico. The system solution was used as a desktop computer and adapted tocarry a mobile environment for the implementation of mobile learning or m-learning. The system complies with the idea ofbeing adaptable to the needs of each student and is able to adapt to three different teaching models that meet the criteriaof three student profiles.

  4. The Effect of High Frequency Pulse on the Discharge Probability in Micro EDM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Qu, Y.; Zhang, W.; Ma, F.; Sha, Z.; Wang, Y.; Rolfe, B.; Zhang, S.

    2017-12-01

    High frequency pulse improves the machining efficiency of micro electric discharge machining (micro EDM), while it also brings some changes in micro EDM process. This paper focuses on the influence of skin-effect under the high frequency pulse on energy distribution and transmission in micro EDM, based on which, the rules of discharge probability of electrode end face are also analysed. On the basis of the electrical discharge process under the condition of high frequency pulse in micro EDM, COMSOL Multiphysics software is used to establish energy transmission model in micro electrode. The discharge energy distribution and transmission within tool electrode under different pulse frequencies, electrical currents, and permeability situation are studied in order to get the distribution pattern of current density and electric field intensity in the electrode end face under the influence of electrical parameters change. The electric field intensity distribution is regarded as the influencing parameter of discharge probability on the electrode end. Finally, MATLAB is used to fit the curve and obtain the distribution of discharge probability of electrode end face.

  5. Cerebral gray matter volume losses in essential tremor: A case-control study using high resolution tissue probability maps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Eric; Dyke, Jonathan P; Hernandez, Nora; Louis, Elan D; Dydak, Ulrike

    2018-03-10

    Essential tremor (ET) is increasingly recognized as a multi-dimensional disorder with both motor and non-motor features. For this reason, imaging studies are more broadly examining regions outside the cerebellar motor loop. Reliable detection of cerebral gray matter (GM) atrophy requires optimized processing, adapted to high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). We investigated cerebral GM volume loss in ET cases using automated segmentation of MRI T1-weighted images. MRI was acquired on 47 ET cases and 36 controls. Automated segmentation and voxel-wise comparisons of volume were performed using Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) software. To improve upon standard protocols, the high-resolution International Consortium for Brain Mapping (ICBM) 2009a atlas and tissue probability maps were used to process each subject image. Group comparisons were performed: all ET vs. Controls, ET with head tremor (ETH) vs. Controls, and severe ET vs. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed between ET with and without head tremor and controls. Age, sex, and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) score were regressed out from each comparison. We were able to consistently identify regions of cerebral GM volume loss in ET and in ET subgroups in the posterior insula, superior temporal gyri, cingulate cortex, inferior frontal gyri and other occipital and parietal regions. There were no significant increases in GM volume in ET in any comparisons with controls. This study, which uses improved methodologies, provides evidence that GM volume loss in ET is present beyond the cerebellum, and in fact, is widespread throughout the cerebrum as well. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Probability modeling of high flow extremes in Yingluoxia watershed, the upper reaches of Heihe River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhanling; Li, Zhanjie; Li, Chengcheng

    2014-05-01

    Probability modeling of hydrological extremes is one of the major research areas in hydrological science. Most basins in humid and semi-humid south and east of China are concerned for probability modeling analysis of high flow extremes. While, for the inland river basin which occupies about 35% of the country area, there is a limited presence of such studies partly due to the limited data availability and a relatively low mean annual flow. The objective of this study is to carry out probability modeling of high flow extremes in the upper reach of Heihe River basin, the second largest inland river basin in China, by using the peak over threshold (POT) method and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), in which the selection of threshold and inherent assumptions for POT series are elaborated in details. For comparison, other widely used probability distributions including generalized extreme value (GEV), Lognormal, Log-logistic and Gamma are employed as well. Maximum likelihood estimate is used for parameter estimations. Daily flow data at Yingluoxia station from 1978 to 2008 are used. Results show that, synthesizing the approaches of mean excess plot, stability features of model parameters, return level plot and the inherent independence assumption of POT series, an optimum threshold of 340m3/s is finally determined for high flow extremes in Yingluoxia watershed. The resulting POT series is proved to be stationary and independent based on Mann-Kendall test, Pettitt test and autocorrelation test. In terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test and several graphical diagnostics such as quantile and cumulative density function plots, GPD provides the best fit to high flow extremes in the study area. The estimated high flows for long return periods demonstrate that, as the return period increasing, the return level estimates are probably more uncertain. The frequency of high flow extremes exhibits a very slight but not significant decreasing trend from 1978 to

  7. A prototype method for diagnosing high ice water content probability using satellite imager data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yost, Christopher R.; Bedka, Kristopher M.; Minnis, Patrick; Nguyen, Louis; Strapp, J. Walter; Palikonda, Rabindra; Khlopenkov, Konstantin; Spangenberg, Douglas; Smith, William L., Jr.; Protat, Alain; Delanoe, Julien

    2018-03-01

    Recent studies have found that ingestion of high mass concentrations of ice particles in regions of deep convective storms, with radar reflectivity considered safe for aircraft penetration, can adversely impact aircraft engine performance. Previous aviation industry studies have used the term high ice water content (HIWC) to define such conditions. Three airborne field campaigns were conducted in 2014 and 2015 to better understand how HIWC is distributed in deep convection, both as a function of altitude and proximity to convective updraft regions, and to facilitate development of new methods for detecting HIWC conditions, in addition to many other research and regulatory goals. This paper describes a prototype method for detecting HIWC conditions using geostationary (GEO) satellite imager data coupled with in situ total water content (TWC) observations collected during the flight campaigns. Three satellite-derived parameters were determined to be most useful for determining HIWC probability: (1) the horizontal proximity of the aircraft to the nearest overshooting convective updraft or textured anvil cloud, (2) tropopause-relative infrared brightness temperature, and (3) daytime-only cloud optical depth. Statistical fits between collocated TWC and GEO satellite parameters were used to determine the membership functions for the fuzzy logic derivation of HIWC probability. The products were demonstrated using data from several campaign flights and validated using a subset of the satellite-aircraft collocation database. The daytime HIWC probability was found to agree quite well with TWC time trends and identified extreme TWC events with high probability. Discrimination of HIWC was more challenging at night with IR-only information. The products show the greatest capability for discriminating TWC ≥ 0.5 g m-3. Product validation remains challenging due to vertical TWC uncertainties and the typically coarse spatio-temporal resolution of the GEO data.

  8. Re-assessment of road accident data-analysis policy : applying theory from involuntary, high-consequence, low-probability events like nuclear power plant meltdowns to voluntary, low-consequence, high-probability events like traffic accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-02-01

    This report examines the literature on involuntary, high-consequence, low-probability (IHL) events like nuclear power plant meltdowns to determine what can be applied to the problem of voluntary, low-consequence high-probability (VLH) events like tra...

  9. The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krupnick, A.J.; Markandya, A.; Nickell, E.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report

  10. The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krupnick, A J; Markandya, A; Nickell, E

    1994-07-01

    This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report.

  11. Red Blood Cell Transfusion Need for Elective Primary Posterior Lumbar Fusion in A High-Volume Center for Spine Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ristagno, Giuseppe; Beluffi, Simonetta; Tanzi, Dario; Belloli, Federica; Carmagnini, Paola; Croci, Massimo; D’Aviri, Giuseppe; Menasce, Guido; Pastore, Juan C.; Pellanda, Armando; Pollini, Alberto; Savoia, Giorgio

    2018-01-01

    (1) Background: This study evaluated the perioperative red blood cell (RBC) transfusion need and determined predictors for transfusion in patients undergoing elective primary lumbar posterior spine fusion in a high-volume center for spine surgery. (2) Methods: Data from all patients undergoing spine surgery between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2016 were reviewed. Patients’ demographics and comorbidities, perioperative laboratory results, and operative time were analyzed in relation to RBC transfusion. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the predictors of transfusion. (3) Results: A total of 874 elective surgeries for primary spine fusion were performed over the three years. Only 54 cases (6%) required RBC transfusion. Compared to the non-transfused patients, transfused patients were mainly female (p = 0.0008), significantly older, with a higher ASA grade (p = 0.0002), and with lower pre-surgery hemoglobin (HB) level and hematocrit (p < 0.0001). In the multivariate logistic regression, a lower pre-surgery HB (OR (95% CI) 2.84 (2.11–3.82)), a higher ASA class (1.77 (1.03–3.05)) and a longer operative time (1.02 (1.01–1.02)) were independently associated with RBC transfusion. (4) Conclusions: In the instance of elective surgery for primary posterior lumbar fusion in a high-volume center for spine surgery, the need for RBC transfusion is low. Factors anticipating transfusion should be taken into consideration in the patient’s pre-surgery preparation. PMID:29385760

  12. Red Blood Cell Transfusion Need for Elective Primary Posterior Lumbar Fusion in A High-Volume Center for Spine Surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Ristagno

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available (1 Background: This study evaluated the perioperative red blood cell (RBC transfusion need and determined predictors for transfusion in patients undergoing elective primary lumbar posterior spine fusion in a high-volume center for spine surgery. (2 Methods: Data from all patients undergoing spine surgery between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2016 were reviewed. Patients’ demographics and comorbidities, perioperative laboratory results, and operative time were analyzed in relation to RBC transfusion. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the predictors of transfusion. (3 Results: A total of 874 elective surgeries for primary spine fusion were performed over the three years. Only 54 cases (6% required RBC transfusion. Compared to the non-transfused patients, transfused patients were mainly female (p = 0.0008, significantly older, with a higher ASA grade (p = 0.0002, and with lower pre-surgery hemoglobin (HB level and hematocrit (p < 0.0001. In the multivariate logistic regression, a lower pre-surgery HB (OR (95% CI 2.84 (2.11–3.82, a higher ASA class (1.77 (1.03–3.05 and a longer operative time (1.02 (1.01–1.02 were independently associated with RBC transfusion. (4 Conclusions: In the instance of elective surgery for primary posterior lumbar fusion in a high-volume center for spine surgery, the need for RBC transfusion is low. Factors anticipating transfusion should be taken into consideration in the patient’s pre-surgery preparation.

  13. A 'new' Cromer-related high frequency antigen probably antithetical to WES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, G L; Green, C A; Darr, F W; Anderson, H; Sistonen, P

    1987-01-01

    An antibody to a high frequency antigen, made in a WES+ Black antenatal patient (Wash.), failed to react with the red cells of a presumed WES+ homozygote and is, therefore, probably antithetical to anti-WES. Like anti-WES, it reacted with papain, ficin, trypsin or neuraminidase treated cells but not with alpha-chymotrypsin or pronase treated cells and was specifically inhibited by concentrated serum. It also reacted more strongly in titration with WES- cells than with WES+ cells. The antibody is Cromer-related as it failed to react with Inab phenotype (IFC-) cells and reacted only weakly with Dr(a-) cells. Wash. cells and those of the other possible WES+ homozygote are Cr(a+) Tc(a+b-c-) Dr(a+) IFC+ but reacted only very weakly with anti-Esa.

  14. Endoscopic Management of Posterior Epistaxis

    OpenAIRE

    Paul, J.; Kanotra, Sohit Paul; Kanotra, Sonika

    2011-01-01

    The traditional method of management of posterior epistaxis has been with anteroposterior nasal packing. Apart from the high failure rate of 26–50% reported in various series, nasal packing is associated with marked discomfort and several complications. In order to avoid nasal packing, we started doing endoscopic cauterization in cases of posterior epistaxis. A total of 23 patients with posterior epistaxis were subjected to nasal endoscopy with the intent to stop bleeding by cauterization of ...

  15. Posterior capsule opacification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wormstone, I Michael; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Christopher S C

    2009-02-01

    Posterior Capsule Opacification (PCO) is the most common complication of cataract surgery. At present the only means of treating cataract is by surgical intervention, and this initially restores high visual quality. Unfortunately, PCO develops in a significant proportion of patients to such an extent that a secondary loss of vision occurs. A modern cataract operation generates a capsular bag, which comprises a proportion of the anterior and the entire posterior capsule. The bag remains in situ, partitions the aqueous and vitreous humours, and in the majority of cases, houses an intraocular lens. The production of a capsular bag following surgery permits a free passage of light along the visual axis through the transparent intraocular lens and thin acellular posterior capsule. However, on the remaining anterior capsule, lens epithelial cells stubbornly reside despite enduring the rigours of surgical trauma. This resilient group of cells then begin to re-colonise the denuded regions of the anterior capsule, encroach onto the intraocular lens surface, occupy regions of the outer anterior capsule and most importantly of all begin to colonise the previously cell-free posterior capsule. Cells continue to divide, begin to cover the posterior capsule and can ultimately encroach on the visual axis resulting in changes to the matrix and cell organization that can give rise to light scatter. This review will describe the biological mechanisms driving PCO progression and discuss the influence of IOL design, surgical techniques and putative drug therapies in regulating the rate and severity of PCO.

  16. Long-term followup of bilateral high (Sober) urinary diversion in patients with posterior urethral valves and its effect on bladder function

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghanem, MA; Nijman, RJM

    Purpose: Although valve ablation is the treatment of choice in patients with posterior urethral valves (PLTV), temporary high (ureterostomy) diversion remains controversial. In this study we evaluated the effect of bilateral Sober high urinary diversion on renal and bladder function. Materials and

  17. High-severity fire: evaluating its key drivers and mapping its probability across western US forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parks, Sean A.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Panunto, Matthew H.; Jolly, W. Matt; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dillon, Gregory K.

    2018-04-01

    Wildland fire is a critical process in forests of the western United States (US). Variation in fire behavior, which is heavily influenced by fuel loading, terrain, weather, and vegetation type, leads to heterogeneity in fire severity across landscapes. The relative influence of these factors in driving fire severity, however, is poorly understood. Here, we explore the drivers of high-severity fire for forested ecoregions in the western US over the period 2002–2015. Fire severity was quantified using a satellite-inferred index of severity, the relativized burn ratio. For each ecoregion, we used boosted regression trees to model high-severity fire as a function of live fuel, topography, climate, and fire weather. We found that live fuel, on average, was the most important factor driving high-severity fire among ecoregions (average relative influence = 53.1%) and was the most important factor in 14 of 19 ecoregions. Fire weather was the second most important factor among ecoregions (average relative influence = 22.9%) and was the most important factor in five ecoregions. Climate (13.7%) and topography (10.3%) were less influential. We also predicted the probability of high-severity fire, were a fire to occur, using recent (2016) satellite imagery to characterize live fuel for a subset of ecoregions in which the model skill was deemed acceptable (n = 13). These ‘wall-to-wall’ gridded ecoregional maps provide relevant and up-to-date information for scientists and managers who are tasked with managing fuel and wildland fire. Lastly, we provide an example of the predicted likelihood of high-severity fire under moderate and extreme fire weather before and after fuel reduction treatments, thereby demonstrating how our framework and model predictions can potentially serve as a performance metric for land management agencies tasked with reducing hazardous fuel across large landscapes.

  18. Approximation of rejective sampling inclusion probabilities and application to high order correlations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boistard, H.; Lopuhää, H.P.; Ruiz-Gazen, A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper is devoted to rejective sampling. We provide an expansion of joint inclusion probabilities of any order in terms of the inclusion probabilities of order one, extending previous results by Hájek (1964) and Hájek (1981) and making the remainder term more precise. Following Hájek (1981), the

  19. Measurements of atomic transition probabilities in highly ionized atoms by fast ion beams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinson, I.; Curtis, L.J.; Lindgaerd, A.

    1977-01-01

    A summary is given of the beam-foil method by which level lifetimes and transition probabilities can be determined in atoms and ions. Results are presented for systems of particular interest for fusion research, such as the Li, Be, Na, Mg, Cu and Zn isoelectronic sequences. The available experimental material is compared to theoretical transition probabilities. (author)

  20. An analytical calculation of neighbourhood order probabilities for high dimensional Poissonian processes and mean field models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tercariol, Cesar Augusto Sangaletti; Kiipper, Felipe de Moura; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2007-01-01

    Consider that the coordinates of N points are randomly generated along the edges of a d-dimensional hypercube (random point problem). The probability P (d,N) m,n that an arbitrary point is the mth nearest neighbour to its own nth nearest neighbour (Cox probabilities) plays an important role in spatial statistics. Also, it has been useful in the description of physical processes in disordered media. Here we propose a simpler derivation of Cox probabilities, where we stress the role played by the system dimensionality d. In the limit d → ∞, the distances between pair of points become independent (random link model) and closed analytical forms for the neighbourhood probabilities are obtained both for the thermodynamic limit and finite-size system. Breaking the distance symmetry constraint drives us to the random map model, for which the Cox probabilities are obtained for two cases: whether a point is its own nearest neighbour or not

  1. Skin damage probabilities using fixation materials in high-energy photon beams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carl, J.; Vestergaard, A.

    2000-01-01

    Patient fixation, such as thermoplastic masks, carbon-fibre support plates and polystyrene bead vacuum cradles, is used to reproduce patient positioning in radiotherapy. Consequently low-density materials may be introduced in high-energy photon beams. The aim of the this study was to measure the increase in skin dose when low-density materials are present and calculate the radiobiological consequences in terms of probabilities of early and late skin damage. An experimental thin-windowed plane-parallel ion chamber was used. Skin doses were measured using various overlaying low-density fixation materials. A fixed geometry of a 10 x 10 cm field, a SSD = 100 cm and photon energies of 4, 6 and 10 MV on Varian Clinac 2100C accelerators were used for all measurements. Radiobiological consequences of introducing these materials into the high-energy photon beams were evaluated in terms of early and late damage of the skin based on the measured surface doses and the LQ-model. The experimental ion chamber save results consistent with other studies. A relationship between skin dose and material thickness in mg/cm 2 was established and used to calculate skin doses in scenarios assuming radiotherapy treatment with opposed fields. Conventional radiotherapy may apply mid-point doses up to 60-66 Gy in daily 2-Gy fractions opposed fields. Using thermoplastic fixation and high-energy photons as low as 4 MV do increase the dose to the skin considerably. However, using thermoplastic materials with thickness less than 100 mg/cm 2 skin doses are comparable with those produced by variation in source to skin distance, field size or blocking trays within clinical treatment set-ups. The use of polystyrene cradles and carbon-fibre materials with thickness less than 100 mg/cm 2 should be avoided at 4 MV at doses above 54-60 Gy. (author)

  2. Jihadist Foreign Fighter Phenomenon in Western Europe: A Low-Probability, High-Impact Threat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Bakker

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The phenomenon of foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq is making headlines. Their involvement in the atrocities committed by terrorist groups such as the so-called “Islamic State” and Jabhat al-Nusra have caused grave concern and public outcry in the foreign fighters’ European countries of origin. While much has been written about these foreign fighters and the possible threat they pose, the impact of this phenomenon on Western European societies has yet to be documented. This Research Paper explores four particular areas where this impact is most visible: a violent incidents associated with (returned foreign fighters, b official and political responses linked to these incidents, c public opinion, and d anti-Islam reactions linked to these incidents. The authors conclude that the phenomenon of jihadist foreign fighters in European societies should be primarily regarded as a social and political threat, not a physical one. They consider the phenomenon of European jihadist foreign fighters a “low-probability, high-impact” threat.

  3. Probable high prevalence of limb-girdle muscular dystrophy type 2D in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Wen-Chen; Chou, Po-Ching; Hung, Chia-Cheng; Su, Yi-Ning; Kan, Tsu-Min; Chen, Wan-Zi; Hayashi, Yukiko K; Nishino, Ichizo; Jong, Yuh-Jyh

    2016-03-15

    Limb-girdle muscular dystrophy type 2D (LGMD2D), an autosomal-recessive inherited LGMD, is caused by the mutations in SGCA. SGCA encodes alpha-sarcoglycan (SG) that forms a heterotetramer with other SGs in the sarcolemma, and comprises part of the dystrophin-glycoprotein complex. The frequency of LGMD2D is variable among different ethnic backgrounds, and so far only a few patients have been reported in Asia. We identified five patients with a novel homozygous mutation of c.101G>T (p.Arg34Leu) in SGCA from a big aboriginal family ethnically consisting of two tribes in Taiwan. Patient 3 is the maternal uncle of patients 1 and 2. All their parents, heterozygous for c.101G>T, denied consanguineous marriages although they were from the same tribe. The heterozygous parents of patients 4 and 5 were from two different tribes, originally residing in different geographic regions in Taiwan. Haplotype analysis showed that all five patients shared the same mutation-associated haplotype, indicating the probability of a founder effect and consanguinity. The results suggest that the carrier rate of c.101G>T in SGCA may be high in Taiwan, especially in the aboriginal population regardless of the tribes. It is important to investigate the prevalence of LGMD2D in Taiwan for early diagnosis and treatment. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. Conditional probability of intense rainfall producing high ground concentrations from radioactive plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wayland, J.R.

    1977-03-01

    The overlap of the expanding plume of radioactive material from a hypothetical nuclear accident with rainstorms over dense population areas is considered. The conditional probability of the occurrence of hot spots from intense cellular rainfall is presented

  5. Learning difficulties of senior high school students based on probability understanding levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anggara, B.; Priatna, N.; Juandi, D.

    2018-05-01

    Identifying students' difficulties in learning concept of probability is important for teachers to prepare the appropriate learning processes and can overcome obstacles that may arise in the next learning processes. This study revealed the level of students' understanding of the concept of probability and identified their difficulties as a part of the epistemological obstacles identification of the concept of probability. This study employed a qualitative approach that tends to be the character of descriptive research involving 55 students of class XII. In this case, the writer used the diagnostic test of probability concept learning difficulty, observation, and interview as the techniques to collect the data needed. The data was used to determine levels of understanding and the learning difficulties experienced by the students. From the result of students' test result and learning observation, it was found that the mean cognitive level was at level 2. The findings indicated that students had appropriate quantitative information of probability concept but it might be incomplete or incorrectly used. The difficulties found are the ones in arranging sample space, events, and mathematical models related to probability problems. Besides, students had difficulties in understanding the principles of events and prerequisite concept.

  6. CGC/saturation approach for soft interactions at high energy: survival probability of central exclusive production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gotsman, E.; Maor, U. [Tel Aviv University, Department of Particle Physics, Raymond and Beverly Sackler Faculty of Exact Science, School of Physics and Astronomy, Tel Aviv (Israel); Levin, E. [Tel Aviv University, Department of Particle Physics, Raymond and Beverly Sackler Faculty of Exact Science, School of Physics and Astronomy, Tel Aviv (Israel); Universidad Tecnica Federico Santa Maria, Departemento de Fisica, Centro Cientifico-Tecnologico de Valparaiso, Valparaiso (Chile)

    2016-04-15

    We estimate the value of the survival probability for central exclusive production in a model which is based on the CGC/saturation approach. Hard and soft processes are described in the same framework. At LHC energies, we obtain a small value for the survival probability. The source of the small value is the impact parameter dependence of the hard amplitude. Our model has successfully described a large body of soft data: elastic, inelastic and diffractive cross sections, inclusive production and rapidity correlations, as well as the t-dependence of deep inelastic diffractive production of vector mesons. (orig.)

  7. High intensity signal of the posterior pituitary. A study with horizontal direction of frequency-encoding and fat suppression MR techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arslan, A.

    1999-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the consistency of fat in the high intensity signals of the normal neurohypophysis and to differentiate the high signal of posterior pituitary from that of dorsum sella. Sagittal SE T1-weighted images with frequency encoding in the horizontal direction were used in order to differentiate the high signal of posterior pituitary and dorsum sella by the vertically-oriented chemical shift artifact. Material and methods: The sellae of 46 normal volunteers were imaged with a commercially available fat suppression technique and SE sequences with frequency encoding in vertical (25 cases) and horizontal (21 cases) axes. Results: The high signal intensity was absent in 9% of the normal volunteers with no predilection to any specific age group. None of the cases with posterior pituitary high intensity signals showed suppression of the signal with fat suppression technique. A fat suppression technique was helpful in documenting the hyperintensity in 7% of normal volunteers. Nineteen of the 21 (90%) cases with high signal intensity were detected by routine SE T1-weighted images, whereas 18 of the 19 (95%) cases were detected by imaging with frequency encoding in the horizontal direction. Conclusion: The high signal does not indicate the presence of fat. Fat suppression technique and a horizontal direction of frequency encoding help in differentiating the high signal of the neurohypophysis from that of dorsum sella. (orig.)

  8. Hierarchical Decompositions for the Computation of High-Dimensional Multivariate Normal Probabilities

    KAUST Repository

    Genton, Marc G.

    2017-09-07

    We present a hierarchical decomposition scheme for computing the n-dimensional integral of multivariate normal probabilities that appear frequently in statistics. The scheme exploits the fact that the formally dense covariance matrix can be approximated by a matrix with a hierarchical low rank structure. It allows the reduction of the computational complexity per Monte Carlo sample from O(n2) to O(mn+knlog(n/m)), where k is the numerical rank of off-diagonal matrix blocks and m is the size of small diagonal blocks in the matrix that are not well-approximated by low rank factorizations and treated as dense submatrices. This hierarchical decomposition leads to substantial efficiencies in multivariate normal probability computations and allows integrations in thousands of dimensions to be practical on modern workstations.

  9. Hierarchical Decompositions for the Computation of High-Dimensional Multivariate Normal Probabilities

    KAUST Repository

    Genton, Marc G.; Keyes, David E.; Turkiyyah, George

    2017-01-01

    We present a hierarchical decomposition scheme for computing the n-dimensional integral of multivariate normal probabilities that appear frequently in statistics. The scheme exploits the fact that the formally dense covariance matrix can be approximated by a matrix with a hierarchical low rank structure. It allows the reduction of the computational complexity per Monte Carlo sample from O(n2) to O(mn+knlog(n/m)), where k is the numerical rank of off-diagonal matrix blocks and m is the size of small diagonal blocks in the matrix that are not well-approximated by low rank factorizations and treated as dense submatrices. This hierarchical decomposition leads to substantial efficiencies in multivariate normal probability computations and allows integrations in thousands of dimensions to be practical on modern workstations.

  10. Highly enhanced avalanche probability using sinusoidally-gated silicon avalanche photodiode

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suzuki, Shingo; Namekata, Naoto, E-mail: nnao@phys.cst.nihon-u.ac.jp; Inoue, Shuichiro [Institute of Quantum Science, Nihon University, 1-8-14 Kanda-Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan); Tsujino, Kenji [Tokyo Women' s Medical University, 8-1 Kawada-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-8666 (Japan)

    2014-01-27

    We report on visible light single photon detection using a sinusoidally-gated silicon avalanche photodiode. Detection efficiency of 70.6% was achieved at a wavelength of 520 nm when an electrically cooled silicon avalanche photodiode with a quantum efficiency of 72.4% was used, which implies that a photo-excited single charge carrier in a silicon avalanche photodiode can trigger a detectable avalanche (charge) signal with a probability of 97.6%.

  11. Development of probabilistic thinking-oriented learning tools for probability materials at junior high school students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, Dwi Ivayana; Hermanto, Didik

    2017-08-01

    This research is a developmental research of probabilistic thinking-oriented learning tools for probability materials at ninth grade students. This study is aimed to produce a good probabilistic thinking-oriented learning tools. The subjects were IX-A students of MTs Model Bangkalan. The stages of this development research used 4-D development model which has been modified into define, design and develop. Teaching learning tools consist of lesson plan, students' worksheet, learning teaching media and students' achievement test. The research instrument used was a sheet of learning tools validation, a sheet of teachers' activities, a sheet of students' activities, students' response questionnaire and students' achievement test. The result of those instruments were analyzed descriptively to answer research objectives. The result was teaching learning tools in which oriented to probabilistic thinking of probability at ninth grade students which has been valid. Since teaching and learning tools have been revised based on validation, and after experiment in class produced that teachers' ability in managing class was effective, students' activities were good, students' responses to the learning tools were positive and the validity, sensitivity and reliability category toward achievement test. In summary, this teaching learning tools can be used by teacher to teach probability for develop students' probabilistic thinking.

  12. Reversible posterior leucoencephalopathy syndrome associated with bone marrow transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teive, H A; Brandi, I V; Camargo, C H; Bittencourt, M A; Bonfim, C M; Friedrich, M L; de Medeiros, C R; Werneck, L C; Pasquini, R

    2001-09-01

    Reversible posterior leucoencephalopathy syndrome (RPLS) has previously been described in patients who have renal insufficiency, eclampsia, hypertensive encephalopathy and patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy. The mechanism by which immunosuppressive agents can cause this syndrome is not clear, but it is probably related with cytotoxic effects of these agents on the vascular endothelium. We report eight patients who received cyclosporine A (CSA) after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation or as treatment for severe aplastic anemia (SSA) who developed posterior leucoencephalopathy. The most common signs and symptoms were seizures and headache. Neurological dysfunction occurred preceded by or concomitant with high blood pressure and some degree of acute renal failure in six patients. Computerized tomography studies showed low-density white matter lesions involving the posterior areas of cerebral hemispheres. Symptoms and neuroimaging abnormalities were reversible and improvement occurred in all patients when given lower doses of CSA or when the drug was withdrawn. RPLS may be considered an expression of CSA neurotoxicity.

  13. Development of risk assessment simulation tool for optimal control of a low probability-high consequence disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yotsumoto, Hiroki; Yoshida, Kikuo; Genchi, Hiroshi

    2011-01-01

    In order to control low probability-high consequence disaster which causes huge social and economic damage, it is necessary to develop simultaneous risk assessment simulation tool based on the scheme of disaster risk including diverse effects of primary disaster and secondary damages. We propose the scheme of this risk simulation tool. (author)

  14. Recent trends in the probability of high out-of-pocket medical expenses in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine E Baird

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This article measures the probability that out-of-pocket expenses in the United States exceed a threshold share of income. It calculates this probability separately by individuals’ health condition, income, and elderly status and estimates changes occurring in these probabilities between 2010 and 2013. Data and Method: This article uses nationally representative household survey data on 344,000 individuals. Logistic regressions estimate the probabilities that out-of-pocket expenses exceed 5% and alternatively 10% of income in the two study years. These probabilities are calculated for individuals based on their income, health status, and elderly status. Results: Despite favorable changes in both health policy and the economy, large numbers of Americans continue to be exposed to high out-of-pocket expenditures. For instance, the results indicate that in 2013 over a quarter of nonelderly low-income citizens in poor health spent 10% or more of their income on out-of-pocket expenses, and over 40% of this group spent more than 5%. Moreover, for Americans as a whole, the probability of spending in excess of 5% of income on out-of-pocket costs increased by 1.4 percentage points between 2010 and 2013, with the largest increases occurring among low-income Americans; the probability of Americans spending more than 10% of income grew from 9.3% to 9.6%, with the largest increases also occurring among the poor. Conclusion: The magnitude of out-of-pocket’s financial burden and the most recent upward trends in it underscore a need to develop good measures of the degree to which health care policy exposes individuals to financial risk, and to closely monitor the Affordable Care Act’s success in reducing Americans’ exposure to large medical bills.

  15. Laparoscopic Versus Open Right Posterior Sectionectomy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in a High-Volume Center: A Propensity Score Matched Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhu, Jinsoo; Kim, Sung Joo; Choi, Gyu Seong; Kim, Jong Man; Joh, Jae-Won; Kwon, Choon Hyuck David

    2018-02-09

    While minimal invasive surgery is becoming popular in liver resection, right posterior sectionectomy (RPS) is still considered as a difficult procedure. We summarize the clinical data and investigate the feasibility of laparoscopic right posterior sectionectomy (LRPS) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by comparing its outcomes with those of open right posterior sectionectomy (ORPS). We retrospectively reviewed 191 patients who underwent RPS for HCC during January 2009 to August 2016 at Samsung Medical Center. After 1:2 propensity score matching, 53 patients in LRPS group were matched to 97 patients in ORPS group. There was no statistical difference in preoperative data. While operation time was significantly longer in LRPS group (381.1 ± 118.7 vs. 234.4 ± 63.7 min, P < 0.001), transfusion rate (13.2 vs. 2.1%, P = 0.061) and complication rate (9.4 vs. 8.3%, P = 0.709) were not statistically different between groups. Clustered Cox proportional hazards regression analysis for matched paired data showed no difference in both disease-free survival (P = 0.607) and overall survival (P = 0.858). In HCC, LRPS can be performed safely compared to ORPS, regarding the operative outcome, patient recovery, and oncological outcomes.

  16. Risk-averse decision-making for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability, high-consequence events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Eun Jeong; Ellingwood, Bruce R.

    2012-01-01

    Quantitative analysis and assessment of risk to civil infrastructure has two components: probability of a potentially damaging event and consequence of damage, measured in terms of financial or human losses. Decision models that have been utilized during the past three decades take into account the probabilistic component rationally, but address decision-maker attitudes toward consequences and risk only to a limited degree. The application of models reflecting these attitudes to decisions involving low-probability, high-consequence events that may impact civil infrastructure requires a fundamental understanding of risk acceptance attitudes and how they affect individual and group choices. In particular, the phenomenon of risk aversion may be a significant factor in decisions for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability events with severe consequences, such as earthquakes, hurricanes or floods. This paper utilizes cumulative prospect theory to investigate the role and characteristics of risk-aversion in assurance of structural safety.

  17. Probability of detection - Comparative study of computed and film radiography for high-energy applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venkatachalam, R.; Venugopal, M.; Prasad, T.

    2007-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: Suitability of computed radiography with Ir-192, Co-60 and up to 9 MeV x-rays for weld inspections is of importance to many heavy engineering and aerospace industries. CR is preferred because of lesser exposure and processing time as compared to film based radiography and also digital images offers other advantages such as image enhancements, quantitative measurements and easier archival. This paper describes systemic experimental approaches and image quality metrics to compare imaging performance of CR with film-based radiography. Experiments were designed using six-sigma methodology to validate performance of CR for steel thickness up to 160 mm with Ir- 192, Co-60 and x-ray energies varying from 100 kV up to 9 MeV. Weld specimens with defects such as lack of fusion, penetration, cracks, concavity, and porosities were studied for evaluating radiographic sensitivity and imaging performance of the system. Attempts were also made to quantify probability of detection using specimens with artificial and natural defects for various experimental conditions and were compared with film based systems. (authors)

  18. High-Throughput Sequencing Identifies MicroRNAs from Posterior Intestine of Loach (Misgurnus anguillicaudatus) and Their Response to Intestinal Air-Breathing Inhibition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Songqian; Cao, Xiaojuan; Tian, Xianchang; Wang, Weimin

    2016-01-01

    MicroRNAs (miRNAs) exert important roles in animal growth, immunity, and development, and regulate gene expression at the post-transcriptional level. Knowledges about the diversities of miRNAs and their roles in accessory air-breathing organs (ABOs) of fish remain unknown. In this work, we used high-throughput sequencing to identify known and novel miRNAs from the posterior intestine, an important ABO, in loach (Misgurnus anguillicaudatus) under normal and intestinal air-breathing inhibited conditions. A total of 204 known and 84 novel miRNAs were identified, while 47 miRNAs were differentially expressed between the two small RNA libraries (i.e. between the normal and intestinal air-breathing inhibited group). Potential miRNA target genes were predicted by combining our transcriptome data of the posterior intestine of the loach under the same conditions, and then annotated using COG, GO, KEGG, Swissprot and Nr databases. The regulatory networks of miRNAs and their target genes were analyzed. The abundances of nine known miRNAs were validated by qRT-PCR. The relative expression profiles of six known miRNAs and their eight corresponding target genes, and two novel potential miRNAs were also detected. Histological characteristics of the posterior intestines in both normal and air-breathing inhibited group were further analyzed. This study contributes to our understanding on the functions and molecular regulatory mechanisms of miRNAs in accessory air-breathing organs of fish.

  19. Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

    2017-05-01

    A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

  20. Posterior atlantoaxial dislocation without odontoid fracture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaudhary, Reema; Raut, Abhijit; Chaudhary, Kshitij; Metkar, Umesh; Rathod, Ashok; Sanghvi, Darshana

    2008-01-01

    We report a case of posterior atlantoaxial dislocation without a fracture of the odontoid in a 35-year-old woman. There have been nine reported cases of similar injury in the English literature. The integrity of the transverse ligament following posterior atlantoaxial dislocations has not been well documented in these reports. In the present case, MRI revealed an intact transverse ligament, which probably contributed to the stability of the C1-C2 complex following closed reduction. (orig.)

  1. Simple heuristic derivation of some charge-transfer probabilities at asymptotically high incident velocities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spruch, L.; Shakeshaft, R.

    1984-01-01

    For asymptotically high incident velocities we provide simple, heuristic, almost classical, derivations of the cross section for forward charge transfer, and of the ratio of the cross section for capture to the elastic-scattering cross section for the projectile scattered through an angle close to π/3

  2. Assessment of local variability by high-throughput e-beam metrology for prediction of patterning defect probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fuming; Hunsche, Stefan; Anunciado, Roy; Corradi, Antonio; Tien, Hung Yu; Tang, Peng; Wei, Junwei; Wang, Yongjun; Fang, Wei; Wong, Patrick; van Oosten, Anton; van Ingen Schenau, Koen; Slachter, Bram

    2018-03-01

    We present an experimental study of pattern variability and defectivity, based on a large data set with more than 112 million SEM measurements from an HMI high-throughput e-beam tool. The test case is a 10nm node SRAM via array patterned with a DUV immersion LELE process, where we see a variation in mean size and litho sensitivities between different unique via patterns that leads to a seemingly qualitative differences in defectivity. The large available data volume enables further analysis to reliably distinguish global and local CDU variations, including a breakdown into local systematics and stochastics. A closer inspection of the tail end of the distributions and estimation of defect probabilities concludes that there is a common defect mechanism and defect threshold despite the observed differences of specific pattern characteristics. We expect that the analysis methodology can be applied for defect probability modeling as well as general process qualification in the future.

  3. Ruin probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

    The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

  4. Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

    2004-01-01

    We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

  5. Reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Eun Ja; Yu, Won Jong; Ahn, Kook Jin; Jung, So Lyung; Lee, Yeon Soo; Kim, Ji Chang; Kang, Si Won; Song, Chang Joon; Song, Soon-Young; Koo, Ja Hong; Kim, Man Deuk

    2001-01-01

    To review reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome. We reviewed 22 patients (M:F=3:19; age, 17-46 years) with the characteristic clinical and imaging features of reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome. All underwent brain MRI, and in three cases both CT and MRI were performed. In one, MRA was obtained, and in eleven, follow-up MR images were obtained. We evaluated the causes of this syndrome, its clinical manifestations, and MR findings including the locations of lesions, the presence or absence of contrast enhancement, and the changes seen at follow-up MRI. Of the 22 patients, 13 had eclampsia (six during pregnancy and seven during puerperium). Four were receiving immunosuppressive therapy (three, cyclosporine ; one, FK 506). Four suffered renal failure and one had complicated migraine. The clinical manifestations included headache (n=12), visual disturbance (n=13), seizure (n=15), focal neurologic sign (n=3), and altered mental status (n=2). Fifteen patients had hypertension and the others normotension. MRI revealed that lesions were bilateral (n=20) or unilateral (n=2). In all patients the lesion was found in the cortical and subcortical areas of the parieto-occipital lobes ; other locations were the basal ganglia (n=9), posterior temporal lobe (n=8), frontal lobe (n=5), cerebellum (n=5), pons (n=2), and thalamus (n=1). All lesions were of high signal intensity on T2-weighted images, and of iso to low intensity on T1-weighted images. One was combined with acute hematoma in the left basal ganglia. In eight of 11 patients who underwent postcontrast T1-weighted MRI, there was no definite enhancement ; in one, enhancement was mild, and in tow, patchy. CT studies showed low attenuation, and MRA revealed mild vasospasm. The symptoms of all patients improved. Follow-up MRI in nine of 11 patients depicted complete resolution of the lesions ; in two, small infarctions remained but the extent of the lesions had decreased. Reversible posterior

  6. Reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Eun Ja; Yu, Won Jong; Ahn, Kook Jin; Jung, So Lyung; Lee, Yeon Soo; Kim, Ji Chang; Kang, Si Won [The Catholic Univ. of Korea, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Song, Chang Joon [Chungnam National Univ. School of Medicine, Cheonju (Korea, Republic of); Song, Soon-Young; Koo, Ja Hong [Kwandong Univ. College of Medicine, Myungji Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Man Deuk [College of Medicine Pochon CHA Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-10-01

    To review reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome. We reviewed 22 patients (M:F=3:19; age, 17-46 years) with the characteristic clinical and imaging features of reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome. All underwent brain MRI, and in three cases both CT and MRI were performed. In one, MRA was obtained, and in eleven, follow-up MR images were obtained. We evaluated the causes of this syndrome, its clinical manifestations, and MR findings including the locations of lesions, the presence or absence of contrast enhancement, and the changes seen at follow-up MRI. Of the 22 patients, 13 had eclampsia (six during pregnancy and seven during puerperium). Four were receiving immunosuppressive therapy (three, cyclosporine ; one, FK 506). Four suffered renal failure and one had complicated migraine. The clinical manifestations included headache (n=12), visual disturbance (n=13), seizure (n=15), focal neurologic sign (n=3), and altered mental status (n=2). Fifteen patients had hypertension and the others normotension. MRI revealed that lesions were bilateral (n=20) or unilateral (n=2). In all patients the lesion was found in the cortical and subcortical areas of the parieto-occipital lobes ; other locations were the basal ganglia (n=9), posterior temporal lobe (n=8), frontal lobe (n=5), cerebellum (n=5), pons (n=2), and thalamus (n=1). All lesions were of high signal intensity on T2-weighted images, and of iso to low intensity on T1-weighted images. One was combined with acute hematoma in the left basal ganglia. In eight of 11 patients who underwent postcontrast T1-weighted MRI, there was no definite enhancement ; in one, enhancement was mild, and in tow, patchy. CT studies showed low attenuation, and MRA revealed mild vasospasm. The symptoms of all patients improved. Follow-up MRI in nine of 11 patients depicted complete resolution of the lesions ; in two, small infarctions remained but the extent of the lesions had decreased. Reversible posterior

  7. Probability-1

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, Albert N

    2016-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

  8. Ignition Probability

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

  9. Conclusion: probable and possible futures. MRI with ultra high magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Bihan, D.

    2009-01-01

    MR neuroimaging does not interfere with brain function. Because it is safe, it can be used to study the brains of both patients and healthy volunteers. The tasks performed by neurons depend largely on their precise location, and high-field magnets have the potential to provide a 5- to 10-fold increase in spatio-temporal resolution. This should allow brain function to be studied on a scale of only a few thousand neurons, possibly at the intermediate scale of the 'neural code'. NeuroSpin, a new CEA research center, is dedicated to neuro-MRI at high magnetic field strengths. As a forum for dialogue between those developing and those using these instruments, it brings together researchers and engineers, technicians and medical doctors. NeuroSpin is one of the few institutions in Europe, if not the world, where these experts can come together in one place to design, construct and use machines equipped with ultra-strong magnets. The strongest 'routine' MR device currently operates at 3 Tesla (60 000 times the earth's magnetic field), whereas a first French system operating at 7 Tesla (140 000 times the earth's field) is now available for human studies, and another system operating at 11.7 Tesla (world record) should be delivered in 2011. Preclinical studies are also being conducted with magnets operating at 7 Tesla and, soon, 17.6 Tesla. (author)

  10. Advanced RESTART method for the estimation of the probability of failure of highly reliable hybrid dynamic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turati, Pietro; Pedroni, Nicola; Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The efficient estimation of system reliability characteristics is of paramount importance for many engineering applications. Real world system reliability modeling calls for the capability of treating systems that are: i) dynamic, ii) complex, iii) hybrid and iv) highly reliable. Advanced Monte Carlo (MC) methods offer a way to solve these types of problems, which are feasible according to the potentially high computational costs. In this paper, the REpetitive Simulation Trials After Reaching Thresholds (RESTART) method is employed, extending it to hybrid systems for the first time (to the authors’ knowledge). The estimation accuracy and precision of RESTART highly depend on the choice of the Importance Function (IF) indicating how close the system is to failure: in this respect, proper IFs are here originally proposed to improve the performance of RESTART for the analysis of hybrid systems. The resulting overall simulation approach is applied to estimate the probability of failure of the control system of a liquid hold-up tank and of a pump-valve subsystem subject to degradation induced by fatigue. The results are compared to those obtained by standard MC simulation and by RESTART with classical IFs available in the literature. The comparison shows the improvement in the performance obtained by our approach. - Highlights: • We consider the issue of estimating small failure probabilities in dynamic systems. • We employ the RESTART method to estimate the failure probabilities. • New Importance Functions (IFs) are introduced to increase the method performance. • We adopt two dynamic, hybrid, highly reliable systems as case studies. • A comparison with literature IFs proves the effectiveness of the new IFs.

  11. Serial follow up V/P scanning in assessment of treatment response in high probability scans for pulmonary embolism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moustafa, H; Elhaddad, SH; Wagih, SH; Ziada, G; Samy, A; Saber, R [Department of nuclear medicine and radiology, faculty of medicine, Cairo university, Cairo, (Egypt)

    1995-10-01

    138 patients proved with V/P scan to have different probabilities of pulmonary emboli event. Serial follow up scanning after 3 days, 2 weeks, 1 month and 3 months was done, with anticoagulant therapy. Out of the remaining 10 patients, 6 patients died with documented P.E. by P.M. study and lost follow up recorded in 4 patients. Complete response with disappearance of all perfusion defects after 2 weeks was detected in 37 patients (49.3%), partial improvement of lesions after 3 months was elicited in 32%. The overall incidence of response was (81.3%) such response was complete in low probability group (100%), (84.2%) in intermediate group and (79.3%) in high probability group with partial response in 45.3%. New lesions were evident in 18.7% of this series. To conclude that serial follow up V/P scan is mandatory for evaluation of response to anticoagulant therapy specially in first 3 months. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  12. Balancing forest-regeneration probabilities and maintenance costs in dry grasslands of high conservation priority

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolliger, Janine; Edwards, Thomas C.; Eggenberg, Stefan; Ismail, Sascha; Seidl, Irmi; Kienast, Felix

    2011-01-01

    Abandonment of agricultural land has resulted in forest regeneration in species-rich dry grasslands across European mountain regions and threatens conservation efforts in this vegetation type. To support national conservation strategies, we used a site-selection algorithm (MARXAN) to find optimum sets of floristic regions (reporting units) that contain grasslands of high conservation priority. We sought optimum sets that would accommodate 136 important dry-grassland species and that would minimize forest regeneration and costs of management needed to forestall predicted forest regeneration. We did not consider other conservation elements of dry grasslands, such as animal species richness, cultural heritage, and changes due to climate change. Optimal sets that included 95–100% of the dry grassland species encompassed an average of 56–59 floristic regions (standard deviation, SD 5). This is about 15% of approximately 400 floristic regions that contain dry-grassland sites and translates to 4800–5300 ha of dry grassland out of a total of approximately 23,000 ha for the entire study area. Projected costs to manage the grasslands in these optimum sets ranged from CHF (Swiss francs) 5.2 to 6.0 million/year. This is only 15–20% of the current total estimated cost of approximately CHF30–45 million/year required if all dry grasslands were to be protected. The grasslands of the optimal sets may be viewed as core sites in a national conservation strategy.

  13. Assessing the clinical probability of pulmonary embolism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miniati, M.; Pistolesi, M.

    2001-01-01

    Clinical assessment is a cornerstone of the recently validated diagnostic strategies for pulmonary embolism (PE). Although the diagnostic yield of individual symptoms, signs, and common laboratory tests is limited, the combination of these variables, either by empirical assessment or by a prediction rule, can be used to express a clinical probability of PE. The latter may serve as pretest probability to predict the probability of PE after further objective testing (posterior or post-test probability). Over the last few years, attempts have been made to develop structured prediction models for PE. In a Canadian multicenter prospective study, the clinical probability of PE was rated as low, intermediate, or high according to a model which included assessment of presenting symptoms and signs, risk factors, and presence or absence of an alternative diagnosis at least as likely as PE. Recently, a simple clinical score was developed to stratify outpatients with suspected PE into groups with low, intermediate, or high clinical probability. Logistic regression was used to predict parameters associated with PE. A score ≤ 4 identified patients with low probability of whom 10% had PE. The prevalence of PE in patients with intermediate (score 5-8) and high probability (score ≥ 9) was 38 and 81%, respectively. As opposed to the Canadian model, this clinical score is standardized. The predictor variables identified in the model, however, were derived from a database of emergency ward patients. This model may, therefore, not be valid in assessing the clinical probability of PE in inpatients. In the PISA-PED study, a clinical diagnostic algorithm was developed which rests on the identification of three relevant clinical symptoms and on their association with electrocardiographic and/or radiographic abnormalities specific for PE. Among patients who, according to the model, had been rated as having a high clinical probability, the prevalence of proven PE was 97%, while it was 3

  14. Fragility estimation for seismically isolated nuclear structures by high confidence low probability of failure values and bi-linear regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carausu, A.

    1996-01-01

    A method for the fragility estimation of seismically isolated nuclear power plant structure is proposed. The relationship between the ground motion intensity parameter (e.g. peak ground velocity or peak ground acceleration) and the response of isolated structures is expressed in terms of a bi-linear regression line, whose coefficients are estimated by the least-square method in terms of available data on seismic input and structural response. The notion of high confidence low probability of failure (HCLPF) value is also used for deriving compound fragility curves for coupled subsystems. (orig.)

  15. An Upper Bound on High Speed Satellite Collision Probability When Only One Object has Position Uncertainty Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.

    2015-01-01

    Upper bounds on high speed satellite collision probability, PC †, have been investigated. Previous methods assume an individual position error covariance matrix is available for each object. The two matrices being combined into a single, relative position error covariance matrix. Components of the combined error covariance are then varied to obtain a maximum PC. If error covariance information for only one of the two objects was available, either some default shape has been used or nothing could be done. An alternative is presented that uses the known covariance information along with a critical value of the missing covariance to obtain an approximate but potentially useful Pc upper bound.

  16. Factors associated with high probability of target blood pressure non-achievement in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Zhemanyuk

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the topic issue of modern cardiology is factors of target blood pressure level non-achievement clarifying due to a better understanding how we can reduce cardiovascular complications. The aim of the study is to determine the factors of poor blood pressure control using the ambulatory blood pressure monitoring parameters and adenosine 5'-diphosphate-induced platelet aggregation parameters in patients with arterial hypertension. Material and methods. The study involved 153 patients with essential hypertension (EH stage II, II degree. The ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM was performed in patients during at least two of first-line antihypertensive drugs in optimal daily doses usage by the ABPM bifunctional device (Incart, S.-P., R.F.. Platelet aggregation was carried out using light transmittance aggregation by optical analyzer (Solar, R.B. with adenosine 5'-diphosphate (Sigma-Aldrich at final concentration of 10.0 × 10-6 mol / L. The first group were inadequately controlled essential hypertensive individuals with high systolic or/and diastolic BP level according to the ABPM results, and the second one were patients with adequately controlled EH. Groups of patients were comparable in age (60.39 ± 10.74 years vs. 62.80 ± 9.63; p = 0.181, respectively. In the group of EH patients who reached the target level of blood pressure, women predominated (60% vs. 39.81%; p = 0.021, respectively. We used the binary logistic regression analysis to determine the predictors of target blood pressure level poor reaching using ABPM and platelet aggregation parameters. Results According to the univariate logistic regression analysis, the dependent factors influencing the target blood pressure level poor reaching are the average diurnal diastolic blood pressure (DBP (OR = 44.8; diurnal variability of systolic blood pressure (SBP (OR = 4.4; square index of hypertension for diurnal periods SBP (OR = 318.9; square index of hypertension for diurnal

  17. High-efficiency production of human serum albumin in the posterior silk glands of transgenic silkworms, Bombyx mori L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiujie Qian

    Full Text Available Human serum albumin (HSA is an important biological preparation with a variety of biological functions in clinical applications. In this study, the mRNA of a fusion transposase derived from the pESNT-PBase plasmid and a pBHSA plasmid containing the HSA gene under the control of a fibroin light chain (FL promoter were co-injected into fertilized eggs. Fifty-six transgenic silkworm pedigrees expressing theexogenous recombinant HSA (rHSA in the posterior silk glands (PSGs with stable inheritance were successfully obtained. The SDS-PAGE and Western blot results confirmed that the rHSA was secreted into the transgenic silkworm cocoon, and the rHSA could be easily extracted with phosphate-buffered saline (PBS. In our research, the isolated highest amount rHSA constituted up to 29.1% of the total soluble protein of the cocoon shell, indicating that the transgenic silkworm produced an average of 17.4 μg/mg of rHSA in the cocoon shell. The production of soluble rHSA in the PSGs by means of generating transgenic silkworms is a novel approach, whereby a large amount of virus-free and functional HSA can be produced through the simple rearing of silkworms.

  18. Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

  19. High-Throughput Sequencing Identifies MicroRNAs from Posterior Intestine of Loach (Misgurnus anguillicaudatus and Their Response to Intestinal Air-Breathing Inhibition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Songqian Huang

    Full Text Available MicroRNAs (miRNAs exert important roles in animal growth, immunity, and development, and regulate gene expression at the post-transcriptional level. Knowledges about the diversities of miRNAs and their roles in accessory air-breathing organs (ABOs of fish remain unknown. In this work, we used high-throughput sequencing to identify known and novel miRNAs from the posterior intestine, an important ABO, in loach (Misgurnus anguillicaudatus under normal and intestinal air-breathing inhibited conditions. A total of 204 known and 84 novel miRNAs were identified, while 47 miRNAs were differentially expressed between the two small RNA libraries (i.e. between the normal and intestinal air-breathing inhibited group. Potential miRNA target genes were predicted by combining our transcriptome data of the posterior intestine of the loach under the same conditions, and then annotated using COG, GO, KEGG, Swissprot and Nr databases. The regulatory networks of miRNAs and their target genes were analyzed. The abundances of nine known miRNAs were validated by qRT-PCR. The relative expression profiles of six known miRNAs and their eight corresponding target genes, and two novel potential miRNAs were also detected. Histological characteristics of the posterior intestines in both normal and air-breathing inhibited group were further analyzed. This study contributes to our understanding on the functions and molecular regulatory mechanisms of miRNAs in accessory air-breathing organs of fish.

  20. High-resolution STIR for 3-T MRI of the posterior fossa: visualization of the lower cranial nerves and arteriovenous structures related to neurovascular compression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiwatashi, Akio; Yoshiura, Takashi; Yamashita, Koji; Kamano, Hironori; Honda, Hiroshi

    2012-09-01

    Preoperative evaluation of small vessels without contrast material is sometimes difficult in patients with neurovascular compression disease. The purpose of this retrospective study was to evaluate whether 3D STIR MRI could simultaneously depict the lower cranial nerves--fifth through twelfth--and the blood vessels in the posterior fossa. The posterior fossae of 47 adults (26 women, 21 men) without gross pathologic changes were imaged with 3D STIR and turbo spin-echo heavily T2-weighted MRI sequences and with contrast-enhanced turbo field-echo MR angiography (MRA). Visualization of the cranial nerves on STIR images was graded on a 4-point scale and compared with visualization on T2-weighted images. Visualization of the arteries on STIR images was evaluated according to the segments in each artery and compared with that on MRA images. Visualization of the veins on STIR images was also compared with that on MRA images. Statistical analysis was performed with the Mann-Whitney U test. There were no significant differences between STIR and T2-weighted images with respect to visualization of the cranial nerves (p > 0.05). Identified on STIR and MRA images were 94 superior cerebellar arteries, 81 anteroinferior cerebellar arteries, and 79 posteroinferior cerebellar arteries. All veins evaluated were seen on STIR and MRA images. There were no significant differences between STIR and MRA images with respect to visualization of arteries and veins (p > 0.05). High-resolution STIR is a feasible method for simultaneous evaluation of the lower cranial nerves and the vessels in the posterior fossa without the use of contrast material.

  1. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

  2. Endoscopic management of posterior epistaxis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, J; Kanotra, Sohit Paul; Kanotra, Sonika

    2011-04-01

    The traditional method of management of posterior epistaxis has been with anteroposterior nasal packing. Apart from the high failure rate of 26-50% reported in various series, nasal packing is associated with marked discomfort and several complications. In order to avoid nasal packing, we started doing endoscopic cauterization in cases of posterior epistaxis. A total of 23 patients with posterior epistaxis were subjected to nasal endoscopy with the intent to stop bleeding by cauterization of the bleeding vessel. Of these, in four cases unsuspected diagnosis was made. Of the remaining 19, in three patients, the bleeding point could not be localized accurately and these patients were managed by anteroposterior packing. The rest of the 16 patients were managed by endoscopic cauterization. In four patients, there was recurrence of bleeding within 24 h. In one of these, cauterization controlled the bleeding while in the rest nasal packing had to be resorted to. Thus, of the 23 patients of posterior epistaxis subjected to nasal endoscopy, we could avoid nasal packing in 17 (74%). To conclude, endoscopic nasal cauterization is recommended as the first line to treatment in all cases of posterior epistaxis. This will not only prevent the uncomfortable and potentially dangerous nasal packing but also help in finding the underlying pathology.

  3. Probability tales

    CERN Document Server

    Grinstead, Charles M; Snell, J Laurie

    2011-01-01

    This book explores four real-world topics through the lens of probability theory. It can be used to supplement a standard text in probability or statistics. Most elementary textbooks present the basic theory and then illustrate the ideas with some neatly packaged examples. Here the authors assume that the reader has seen, or is learning, the basic theory from another book and concentrate in some depth on the following topics: streaks, the stock market, lotteries, and fingerprints. This extended format allows the authors to present multiple approaches to problems and to pursue promising side discussions in ways that would not be possible in a book constrained to cover a fixed set of topics. To keep the main narrative accessible, the authors have placed the more technical mathematical details in appendices. The appendices can be understood by someone who has taken one or two semesters of calculus.

  4. Probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Dorogovtsev, A Ya; Skorokhod, A V; Silvestrov, D S; Skorokhod, A V

    1997-01-01

    This book of problems is intended for students in pure and applied mathematics. There are problems in traditional areas of probability theory and problems in the theory of stochastic processes, which has wide applications in the theory of automatic control, queuing and reliability theories, and in many other modern science and engineering fields. Answers to most of the problems are given, and the book provides hints and solutions for more complicated problems.

  5. Midcourse Guidance Law Based on High Target Acquisition Probability Considering Angular Constraint and Line-of-Sight Angle Rate Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Random disturbance factors would lead to the variation of target acquisition point during the long distance flight. To acquire a high target acquisition probability and improve the impact precision, missiles should be guided to an appropriate target acquisition position with certain attitude angles and line-of-sight (LOS angle rate. This paper has presented a new midcourse guidance law considering the influences of random disturbances, detection distance restraint, and target acquisition probability with Monte Carlo simulation. Detailed analyses of the impact points on the ground and the random distribution of the target acquisition position in the 3D space are given to get the appropriate attitude angles and the end position for the midcourse guidance. Then, a new formulation biased proportional navigation (BPN guidance law with angular constraint and LOS angle rate control has been derived to ensure the tracking ability when attacking the maneuvering target. Numerical simulations demonstrates that, compared with the proportional navigation guidance (PNG law and the near-optimal spatial midcourse guidance (NSMG law, BPN guidance law demonstrates satisfactory performances and can meet both the midcourse terminal angular constraint and the LOS angle rate requirement.

  6. Posterior Reduction and Monosegmental Fusion with Intraoperative Three-dimensional Navigation System in the Treatment of High-grade Developmental Spondylolisthesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Tian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The treatment of high-grade developmental spondylolisthesis (HGDS is still challenging and controversial. In this study, we investigated the efficacy of the posterior reduction and monosegmental fusion assisted by intraoperative three-dimensional (3D navigation system in managing the HGDS. Methods: Thirteen consecutive HGDS patients were treated with posterior decompression, reduction and monosegmental fusion of L5/S1, assisted by intraoperative 3D navigation system. The clinical and radiographic outcomes were evaluated, with a minimum follow-up of 2 years. The differences between the pre- and post-operative measures were statistically analyzed using a two-tailed, paired t-test. Results: At most recent follow-up, 12 patients were pain-free. Only 1 patient had moderate pain. There were no permanent neurological complications or pseudarthrosis. The magnetic resonance imaging showed that there was no obvious disc degeneration in the adjacent segment. All radiographic parameters were improved. Mean slippage improved from 63.2% before surgery to 12.2% after surgery and 11.0% at latest follow-up. Lumbar lordosis changed from preoperative 34.9 ± 13.3° to postoperative 50.4 ± 9.9°, and 49.3 ± 7.8° at last follow-up. L5 incidence improved from 71.0 ± 11.3° to 54.0 ± 11.9° and did not change significantly at the last follow-up 53.1 ± 15.4°. While pelvic incidence remained unchanged, sacral slip significantly decreased from preoperative 32.7 ± 12.5° to postoperative 42.6 ± 9.8°and remained constant to the last follow-up 44.4 ± 6.9°. Pelvic tilt significantly decreased from 38.4 ± 12.5° to 30.9 ± 8.1° and remained unchanged at the last follow-up 28.1 ± 11.2°. Conclusions: Posterior reduction and monosegmental fusion of L5/S1 assisted by intraoperative 3D navigation are an effective technique for managing high-grade dysplastic spondylolisthesis. A complete reduction of local deformity and excellent correction of overall

  7. High-altitude cosmic ray neutrons: probable source for the high-energy protons of the earth's radiation belts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hajnal, F.; Wilson, J.

    1992-01-01

    'Full Text:' Several High-altitude cosmic-ray neutron measurements were performed by the NASA Ames Laboratory in the mid-to late-1970s using airplanes flying at about 13km altitude along constant geomagnetic latitudes of 20, 44 and 51 degrees north. Bonner spheres and manganese, gold and aluminium foils were used in the measurements. In addition, large moderated BF-3 counters served as normalizing instruments. Data analyses performed at that time did not provide complete and unambiguous spectral information and field intensities. Recently, using our new unfolding methods and codes, and Bonner-sphere response function extensions for higher energies, 'new' neutron spectral intensities were obtained, which show progressive hardening of neutron spectra as a function of increasing geomagnetic latitude, with substantial increases in the energy region iron, 1 0 MeV to 10 GeV. For example, we found that the total neutron fluences at 20 and 51 degrees magnetic north are in the ratio of 1 to 5.2 and the 10 MeV to 10 GeV fluence ratio is 1 to 18. The magnitude of these ratios is quite remarkable. From the new results, the derived absolute neutron energy distribution is of the correct strength and shape for the albedo neutrons to be the main source of the high-energy protons trapped in the Earth's inner radiation belt. In addition, the results, depending on the extrapolation scheme used, indicate that the neutron dose equivalent rate may be as high as 0.1 mSv/h near the geomagnetic north pole and thus a significant contributor to the radiation exposures of pilots, flight attendants and the general public. (author)

  8. Using extreme value theory approaches to forecast the probability of outbreak of highly pathogenic influenza in Zhejiang, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiangpeng Chen

    Full Text Available Influenza is a contagious disease with high transmissibility to spread around the world with considerable morbidity and mortality and presents an enormous burden on worldwide public health. Few mathematical models can be used because influenza incidence data are generally not normally distributed. We developed a mathematical model using Extreme Value Theory (EVT to forecast the probability of outbreak of highly pathogenic influenza.The incidence data of highly pathogenic influenza in Zhejiang province from April 2009 to November 2013 were retrieved from the website of Health and Family Planning Commission of Zhejiang Province. MATLAB "VIEM" toolbox was used to analyze data and modelling. In the present work, we used the Peak Over Threshold (POT model, assuming the frequency as a Poisson process and the intensity to be Pareto distributed, to characterize the temporal variability of the long-term extreme incidence of highly pathogenic influenza in Zhejiang, China.The skewness and kurtosis of the incidence of highly pathogenic influenza in Zhejiang between April 2009 and November 2013 were 4.49 and 21.12, which indicated a "fat tail" distribution. A QQ plot and a mean excess plot were used to further validate the features of the distribution. After determining the threshold, we modeled the extremes and estimated the shape parameter and scale parameter by the maximum likelihood method. The results showed that months in which the incidence of highly pathogenic influenza is about 4462/2286/1311/487 are predicted to occur once every five/three/two/one year, respectively.Despite the simplicity, the present study successfully offers the sound modeling strategy and a methodological avenue to implement forecasting of an epidemic in the midst of its course.

  9. Changes in the high-mountain vegetation of the Central Iberian Peninsula as a probable sign of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanz-Elorza, Mario; Dana, Elías D; González, Alberto; Sobrino, Eduardo

    2003-08-01

    Aerial images of the high summits of the Spanish Central Range reveal significant changes in vegetation over the period 1957 to 1991. These changes include the replacement of high-mountain grassland communities dominated by Festuca aragonensis, typical of the Cryoro-Mediterranean belt, by shrub patches of Juniperus communis ssp. alpina and Cytisus oromediterraneus from lower altitudes (Oro-Mediterranean belt). Climatic data indicate a shift towards warmer conditions in this mountainous region since the 1940s, with the shift being particularly marked from 1960. Changes include significantly higher minimum and maximum temperatures, fewer days with snow cover and a redistribution of monthly rainfall. Total yearly precipitation showed no significant variation. There were no marked changes in land use during the time frame considered, although there were minor changes in grazing species in the 19th century. It is hypothesized that the advance of woody species into higher altitudes is probably related to climate change, which could have acted in conjunction with discrete variations in landscape management. The pronounced changes observed in the plant communities of the area reflect the susceptibility of high-mountain Mediterranean species to environmental change.

  10. The prevalence of probable delayed-sleep-phase syndrome in students from junior high school to university in Tottori, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazama, Gen-i; Inoue, Yuichi; Kojima, Kazushige; Ueta, Toshiyuki; Nakagome, Kazuyuki

    2008-09-01

    Delayed sleep phase syndrome (DSPS) is a circadian rhythm sleep disorder with a typical onset in the second decade of life. DSPS is characterized by the sleep-onset insomnia and the difficulty in waking at the desired time in the morning. Although DSPS is associated with inability to attend school, the prevalence has been controversial. To elucidate a change in the prevalence of DSPS among young population, epidemiological survey was conducted on Japanese students. A total of 4,971 students of junior high school, senior high school, and university were enrolled in this cross sectional study in Tottori Prefecture. They answered anonymous screening questionnaire regarding school schedule, sleep hygiene and symptomatic items of sleep disorders. The prevalence of probable DSPS was estimated at 0.48% among the total subject students without gender difference. In university, the prevalence of the last year students showed the highest value (1.66%), while that of the first year students showed the lowest value (0.09%) among all school years from junior high school to university. The prevalence increased with advancing university school years. Thus, a considerable number of Japanese students are affected with DSPS. Senior students of university are more vulnerable to the disorder than younger students. Appropriate school schedule may decrease the mismatch between the individual's sleep-wake cycle and the school schedule. Promotion of a regular sleep habit is necessary to prevent DSPS among this population.

  11. Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

    2018-01-01

    An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

  12. Impact of high-flux haemodialysis on the probability of target attainment for oral amoxicillin/clavulanic acid combination therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Katrina; Patel, Kashyap; Kong, David C M; Kirkpatrick, Carl M J

    2017-07-01

    Clearance of small molecules such as amoxicillin and clavulanic acid is expected to increase during high-flux haemodialysis, which may result in lower concentrations and thus reduced efficacy. To date, clearance of amoxicillin/clavulanic acid (AMC) during high-flux haemodialysis remains largely unexplored. Using published pharmacokinetic parameters, a two-compartment model with first-order input was simulated to investigate the impact of high-flux haemodialysis on the probability of target attainment (PTA) of orally administered AMC combination therapy. The following pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic targets were used to calculate the PTA. For amoxicillin, the time that the free concentration remains above the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of ≥50% of the dosing period (≥50%ƒT >MIC ) was used. For clavulanic acid, the time that the free concentration was >0.1 mg/L of ≥45% of the dosing period (≥45%ƒT >0.1 mg/L ) was used. Dialysis clearance reported in low-flux haemodialysis for both compounds was doubled to represent the likely clearance during high-flux haemodialysis. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to produce concentration-time profiles over 10 days in 1000 virtual patients. Seven different regimens commonly seen in clinical practice were explored. When AMC was dosed twice daily, the PTA was mostly ≥90% for both compounds regardless of when haemodialysis commenced. When administered once daily, the PTA was 20-30% for clavulanic acid and ≥90% for amoxicillin. The simulations suggest that once-daily orally administered AMC in patients receiving high-flux haemodialysis may result in insufficient concentrations of clavulanic acid to effectively treat infections, especially on days when haemodialysis occurs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. and International Society of Chemotherapy. All rights reserved.

  13. Network Efficiency and Posterior Alpha Patterns Are Markers of Recovery from General Anesthesia: A High-Density Electroencephalography Study in Healthy Volunteers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanie Blain-Moraes

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have investigated local oscillations, long-range connectivity, and global network patterns to identify neural changes associated with anesthetic-induced unconsciousness. These studies typically employ anesthetic protocols that either just cross the threshold of unconsciousness, or induce deep unconsciousness for a brief period of time—neither of which models general anesthesia for major surgery. To study neural patterns of unconsciousness and recovery in a clinically-relevant context, we used a realistic anesthetic regimen to induce and maintain unconsciousness in eight healthy participants for 3 h. High-density electroencephalogram (EEG was acquired throughout and for another 3 h after emergence. Seven epochs of 5-min eyes-closed resting states were extracted from the data at baseline as well as 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, and 180-min post-emergence. Additionally, 5-min epochs were extracted during induction, unconsciousness, and immediately prior to recovery of consciousness, for a total of 10 analysis epochs. The EEG data in each epoch were analyzed using source-localized spectral analysis, phase-lag index, and graph theoretical techniques. Posterior alpha power was significantly depressed during unconsciousness, and gradually approached baseline levels over the 3 h recovery period. Phase-lag index did not distinguish between states of consciousness or stages of recovery. Network efficiency was significantly depressed and network clustering coefficient was significantly increased during unconsciousness; these graph theoretical measures returned to baseline during the 3 h recovery period. Posterior alpha power may be a potential biomarker for normal recovery of functional brain networks after general anesthesia.

  14. Traumatic posterior fossa epidural hematoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikeda, Yukio; Nakazawa, Shozo; Yamakawa, Kazuomi; Kobayashi, Shiro; Tsuji, Yukihide

    1981-01-01

    In this paper three acute cases and two subacute cases are reported. CT findings in acute cases show two different types. ''Type I'' shows crescent or lenticular high density area which is not enhanced after contrast infusion. ''Type II'' shows lenticular low density area with membranous high density region in its medial side after contrast infusion. In subacute cases plain CT scan shows lenticular iso or low density area with membranous high density region in its medial side. Forty five cases of posterior fossa epidural hematoma in the review of literature of this country are discussed. Disturbances of the consciousness are the most predominant symptoms in acute cases, while in subacute cases cerebellar signs, vomiting, headache and choked disc are noted. Angiographical examinations may not always be valuable in collecting the direct information of the existence of the epidural hematoma. Liquor cavity in the posterior fossa which is thought to serve as a buffer action of hematoma is about 20 ml, so we discuss about the volume of hematoma, especially of 20 ml, associated with clinical course and prognosis. Volume of epidural hematoma is one of the most important factors affecting clinical course and prognosis. In summary of these our experiences, we again emphasize the value of CT scan as the rapid, noninvasive, accurate radiological examination in the diagnosis of traumatic posterior fossa epidural hematoma. (author)

  15. The urinary antigen tests have high sensitivity in diagnosis of Pneumococcus caused community-acquired pneumonia posterior to antimicrobial therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ming; Zhou, Ming; Xiao, Wei; Ai, Biao; Liu, Xuezheng; Li, Yan

    2014-11-01

    Antibiotic treatment before microbiological test significant reduces the positive rate of culture methods of Streptococcus pneumoniae. The Binax NOW S. pneumoniae immunochromatographic test (ICT) has become a more commonly used procedure to diagnose S. pneumoniae from community-acquired pneumonia in adults. However, performance of this test after empirical antimicrobial therapy is uncertain. Therefore, in this prospective study, we evaluate the impact of antimicrobial therapy on sensitivity of ICT test in 487 hospitalized adult patients. The results showed that 192 (39.4 %) and 295 (60.6 %) specimens were collected before (Group 1) or after antibiotic treatment (Group 2), respectively. S. pneumoniae was detected by ICT in 21 (10.9 %) patients in the Group 1 and 39 (13.2 %) in the Group 2 and their positive rates were not different (P > 0.05). However, The positive rate of blood and pleural fluid was declined from 5.7 to 2.7 % and sputum, from 9.9 to 4.7 % after the antibiotic treatment, respectively. This study confirmed that the ICT urinary antigen test remained to have a high sensitivity for diagnosis of pneumococcal infection after empiric antibiotic treatment was started. The ICT urinary antigen test would have a potential to guide the right choice of therapy for pneumonia in adults earlier.

  16. A Probability Distribution over Latent Causes, in the Orbitofrontal Cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Stephanie C Y; Niv, Yael; Norman, Kenneth A

    2016-07-27

    The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) has been implicated in both the representation of "state," in studies of reinforcement learning and decision making, and also in the representation of "schemas," in studies of episodic memory. Both of these cognitive constructs require a similar inference about the underlying situation or "latent cause" that generates our observations at any given time. The statistically optimal solution to this inference problem is to use Bayes' rule to compute a posterior probability distribution over latent causes. To test whether such a posterior probability distribution is represented in the OFC, we tasked human participants with inferring a probability distribution over four possible latent causes, based on their observations. Using fMRI pattern similarity analyses, we found that BOLD activity in the OFC is best explained as representing the (log-transformed) posterior distribution over latent causes. Furthermore, this pattern explained OFC activity better than other task-relevant alternatives, such as the most probable latent cause, the most recent observation, or the uncertainty over latent causes. Our world is governed by hidden (latent) causes that we cannot observe, but which generate the observations we see. A range of high-level cognitive processes require inference of a probability distribution (or "belief distribution") over the possible latent causes that might be generating our current observations. This is true for reinforcement learning and decision making (where the latent cause comprises the true "state" of the task), and for episodic memory (where memories are believed to be organized by the inferred situation or "schema"). Using fMRI, we show that this belief distribution over latent causes is encoded in patterns of brain activity in the orbitofrontal cortex, an area that has been separately implicated in the representations of both states and schemas. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/367817-12$15.00/0.

  17. Effect of posterior crown margin placement on gingival health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reitemeier, Bernd; Hänsel, Kristina; Walter, Michael H; Kastner, Christian; Toutenburg, Helge

    2002-02-01

    The clinical impact of posterior crown margin placement on gingival health has not been thoroughly quantified. This study evaluated the effect of posterior crown margin placement with multivariate analysis. Ten general dentists reviewed 240 patients with 480 metal-ceramic crowns in a prospective clinical trial. The alloy was randomly selected from 2 high gold, 1 low gold, and 1 palladium alloy. Variables were the alloy used, oral hygiene index score before treatment, location of crown margins at baseline, and plaque index and sulcus bleeding index scores recorded for restored and control teeth after 1 year. The effect of crown margin placement on sulcular bleeding and plaque accumulation was analyzed with regression models (Prisk of bleeding at intrasulcular posterior crown margins was approximately twice that at supragingival margins. Poor oral hygiene before treatment and plaque also were associated with sulcular bleeding. Facial sites exhibited a lower probability of sulcular bleeding than lingual surfaces. Type of alloy did not influence sulcular bleeding. In this study, placement of crown margins was one of several parameters that affected gingival health.

  18. An Alternative Version of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of Probability Logic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satake, Eiki; Amato, Philip P.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an alternative version of formulas of conditional probabilities and Bayes' rule that demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic applies to the derivations of the conditional probabilities of various complex, compound statements. This new approach is used to calculate the prior and posterior probabilities…

  19. Posterior Urethral Valves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve J. Hodges

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The most common cause of lower urinary tract obstruction in male infants is posterior urethral valves. Although the incidence has remained stable, the neonatal mortality for this disorder has improved due to early diagnosis and intensive neonatal care, thanks in part to the widespread use of prenatal ultrasound evaluations. In fact, the most common reason for the diagnosis of posterior urethral valves presently is the evaluation of infants for prenatal hydronephrosis. Since these children are often diagnosed early, the urethral obstruction can be alleviated rapidly through catheter insertion and eventual surgery, and their metabolic derangements can be normalized without delay, avoiding preventable infant mortality. Of the children that survive, however, early diagnosis has not had much effect on their long-term prognosis, as 30% still develop renal insufficiency before adolescence. A better understanding of the exact cause of the congenital obstruction of the male posterior urethra, prevention of postnatal bladder and renal injury, and the development of safe methods to treat urethral obstruction prenatally (and thereby avoiding the bladder and renal damage due to obstructive uropathy are the goals for the care of children with posterior urethral valves[1].

  20. The spectrum of pelvic fracture urethral injuries and posterior urethroplasty in an Italian high-volume centre, from 1980 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbagli, Guido; Sansalone, Salvatore; Romano, Giuseppe; Lazzeri, Massimo

    2015-03-01

    To describe the emergency and delayed treatment of patients with pelvic fracture urethral injuries (PFUI) presenting to an Italian high-volume centre. In a retrospective, observational study we evaluated the spectrum of PFUI and posterior urethroplasty in an Italian high-volume centre, from 1980 to 2013. Patients requiring emergency treatment for PFUI and delayed treatment for pelvic fracture urethral defects (PFUD) were included. Patients with incomplete clinical records were excluded from the study. Descriptive statistical methods were applied. In all, 159 male patients (median age 35 years) were included in the study. A traffic accident was the most frequent (42.8%) cause of PFUI, and accidents at work were reported as the cause of trauma in 34% of patients. Agricultural accidents decreased from 24.4% to 6.2% over the course of the survey. A suprapubic cystostomy was the most frequent (49%) emergency treatment in patients with PFUI. The use of surgical realignment decreased from 31.7% to 6.2%, and endoscopic realignment increased from 9.7% to 35.3%. A bulbo-prostatic anastomosis was the most frequent (62.9%) delayed treatment in patients with PFUD. The use of the Badenoch pull-through decreased from 19.5% to 2.6%, and endoscopic holmium laser urethrotomy increased from 4.9% to 32.7%. The spectrum of PFUI and subsequent treatment of PFUD has changed greatly over the last 10 years at our centre. These changes involved patient age, aetiology, emergency and delayed treatments, and were found to be related to changes in the economy and lifestyle of the Italian patients.

  1. Posterior microphthalmos pigmentary retinopathy syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pehere, Niranjan; Jalali, Subhadra; Deshmukh, Himanshu; Kannabiran, Chitra

    2011-04-01

    Posterior Microphthalmos Pigmentary Retinopathy Syndrome (PMPRS). Posterior microphthalmos (PM) is a relatively infrequent type of microphthalmos where posterior segment is predominantly affected with normal anterior segment measurements. Herein, we report two siblings with posterior microphthalmos retinopathy syndrome with postulated autosomal recessive mode of inheritance. A 13-year-old child had PM and retinitis pigmentosa (RP) and his 7-year-old sister had PM, RP, and foveoschisis. The genetics of this syndrome and variable phenotype is discussed. Importance of being aware of posterior microphthalmos and its posterior segment associations is highlighted.

  2. The effectiveness of low-dose and high-dose tranexamic acid in posterior lumbar interbody fusion: a double-blinded, placebo-controlled randomized study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ki-Tack; Kim, Cheung-Kue; Kim, Yong-Chan; Juh, Hyung-Suk; Kim, Hyo-Jong; Kim, Hyeon-Soo; Hong, Se Jung; Hey, Hwee Weng Dennis

    2017-11-01

    Tranexamic acid is a proven drug used for reduction of intraoperative blood loss in spinal surgery. However, optimal dosing considering risk/benefits is not well established owing to the heterogeneity in patient selection and surgical procedures of previous studies. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of various tranexamic acid regimens in reducing perioperative blood loss in single-level posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF). Patients were randomly grouped into three different interventions: low-dose tranexamic acid (LD), high-dose tranexamic acid (HD), and placebo-controlled (PC) groups. The HD and LD groups received 10 and 5 mg/kg of bolus loading dose and 2 and 1 mg/kg of continuous infusion until 5 h after surgery, respectively. Data on patient demographics and preoperative and 24-h postoperative laboratory values were collected. Outcome parameters include intraoperative blood loss, 24-h postoperative blood loss, and blood loss during removal of the last drain. Seventy-two patients (mean age 63.3 ± 7.6 years) showed similar baseline characteristics. Intraoperatively, blood loss was reduced by the administration of tranexamic acid (P = 0.04), contributed predominantly by a difference between the LD and HD groups (123 mL; P tranexamic acid use were noted. Tranexamic acid administration for single-level PLIF was effective and safe in reducing perioperative blood loss in a dose-dependent manner. An HD regimen comprising 10 mg/kg of bolus loading dose and 2 mg/kg/h of continuous infusion is recommended. Level 1 study according to Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine 2011 Levels of Evidence.

  3. Posterior Reversible Encephalopathy (PRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moron E, Fanny E; Diaz Marchan, Pedro

    2005-01-01

    The Posterior Reversible Encephalopathy Syndrome (PRES) is a clinical Syndrome composed of cephalea, alteration in vision and convulsions, usually observed in patients with sudden elevation of arterial pressure. The imagenologic evidence shows reversible vasogenic brain edema without stroke. Its location is predominantly posterior; it affects the cortex and the subcortical white matter of the occipital, parietal and temporal lobes. The treatment with antihypertensive drugs and the removing of immunosupressor medication are generally associated with complete neurological recovery; this is reflected also in the images which return to their basal condition. The untreated hypertension, on the other side, can result in a progressive defect of the autoregulation system of the central nervous system with cerebral hemorrhage, irreversible brain stroke, coma and death

  4. Robotic posterior retroperitoneal adrenalectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okoh, Alexis Kofi; Yigitbas, Hakan; Berber, Eren

    2015-09-01

    Since its initial description by Mercan et al. laparoscopic posterior retroperitoneal (PR) adrenalectomy has served as an alternaltive to the transabdominal (TL) approach for the treatment of adrenal pathologies. Robotic adrenal surgery has been reported to improve surgeon ergonomics and facilitate dissection. In patients with bilateral adrenal masses, PR adrenalectomy may be the approach of choice. We herein describe the technique, discuss its limitations and present a critical review of the current literature. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Optimum Inductive Methods. A study in Inductive Probability, Bayesian Statistics, and Verisimilitude.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Festa, Roberto

    1992-01-01

    According to the Bayesian view, scientific hypotheses must be appraised in terms of their posterior probabilities relative to the available experimental data. Such posterior probabilities are derived from the prior probabilities of the hypotheses by applying Bayes'theorem. One of the most important

  6. Multiple model cardinalized probability hypothesis density filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgescu, Ramona; Willett, Peter

    2011-09-01

    The Probability Hypothesis Density (PHD) filter propagates the first-moment approximation to the multi-target Bayesian posterior distribution while the Cardinalized PHD (CPHD) filter propagates both the posterior likelihood of (an unlabeled) target state and the posterior probability mass function of the number of targets. Extensions of the PHD filter to the multiple model (MM) framework have been published and were implemented either with a Sequential Monte Carlo or a Gaussian Mixture approach. In this work, we introduce the multiple model version of the more elaborate CPHD filter. We present the derivation of the prediction and update steps of the MMCPHD particularized for the case of two target motion models and proceed to show that in the case of a single model, the new MMCPHD equations reduce to the original CPHD equations.

  7. Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Saad, Emad

    2013-01-01

    Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

  8. Introduction to imprecise probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin

  9. Prioritizing forest fuels treatments based on the probability of high-severity fire restores adaptive capacity in Sierran forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krofcheck, Daniel J; Hurteau, Matthew D; Scheller, Robert M; Loudermilk, E Louise

    2018-02-01

    In frequent fire forests of the western United States, a legacy of fire suppression coupled with increases in fire weather severity have altered fire regimes and vegetation dynamics. When coupled with projected climate change, these conditions have the potential to lead to vegetation type change and altered carbon (C) dynamics. In the Sierra Nevada, fuels reduction approaches that include mechanical thinning followed by regular prescribed fire are one approach to restore the ability of the ecosystem to tolerate episodic fire and still sequester C. Yet, the spatial extent of the area requiring treatment makes widespread treatment implementation unlikely. We sought to determine if a priori knowledge of where uncharacteristic wildfire is most probable could be used to optimize the placement of fuels treatments in a Sierra Nevada watershed. We developed two treatment placement strategies: the naive strategy, based on treating all operationally available area and the optimized strategy, which only treated areas where crown-killing fires were most probable. We ran forecast simulations using projected climate data through 2,100 to determine how the treatments differed in terms of C sequestration, fire severity, and C emissions relative to a no-management scenario. We found that in both the short (20 years) and long (100 years) term, both management scenarios increased C stability, reduced burn severity, and consequently emitted less C as a result of wildfires than no-management. Across all metrics, both scenarios performed the same, but the optimized treatment required significantly less C removal (naive=0.42 Tg C, optimized=0.25 Tg C) to achieve the same treatment efficacy. Given the extent of western forests in need of fire restoration, efficiently allocating treatments is a critical task if we are going to restore adaptive capacity in frequent-fire forests. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Posterior Urethral Strictures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel Gelman

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Pelvic fracture urethral injuries are typically partial and more often complete disruptions of the most proximal bulbar and distal membranous urethra. Emergency management includes suprapubic tube placement. Subsequent primary realignment to place a urethral catheter remains a controversial topic, but what is not controversial is that when there is the development of a stricture (which is usually obliterative with a distraction defect after suprapubic tube placement or urethral catheter removal, the standard of care is delayed urethral reconstruction with excision and primary anastomosis. This paper reviews the management of patients who suffer pelvic fracture urethral injuries and the techniques of preoperative urethral imaging and subsequent posterior urethroplasty.

  11. Posterior Urethral Strictures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelman, Joel; Wisenbaugh, Eric S.

    2015-01-01

    Pelvic fracture urethral injuries are typically partial and more often complete disruptions of the most proximal bulbar and distal membranous urethra. Emergency management includes suprapubic tube placement. Subsequent primary realignment to place a urethral catheter remains a controversial topic, but what is not controversial is that when there is the development of a stricture (which is usually obliterative with a distraction defect) after suprapubic tube placement or urethral catheter removal, the standard of care is delayed urethral reconstruction with excision and primary anastomosis. This paper reviews the management of patients who suffer pelvic fracture urethral injuries and the techniques of preoperative urethral imaging and subsequent posterior urethroplasty. PMID:26691883

  12. Robust estimation of the expected survival probabilities from high-dimensional Cox models with biomarker-by-treatment interactions in randomized clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nils Ternès

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Thanks to the advances in genomics and targeted treatments, more and more prediction models based on biomarkers are being developed to predict potential benefit from treatments in a randomized clinical trial. Despite the methodological framework for the development and validation of prediction models in a high-dimensional setting is getting more and more established, no clear guidance exists yet on how to estimate expected survival probabilities in a penalized model with biomarker-by-treatment interactions. Methods Based on a parsimonious biomarker selection in a penalized high-dimensional Cox model (lasso or adaptive lasso, we propose a unified framework to: estimate internally the predictive accuracy metrics of the developed model (using double cross-validation; estimate the individual survival probabilities at a given timepoint; construct confidence intervals thereof (analytical or bootstrap; and visualize them graphically (pointwise or smoothed with spline. We compared these strategies through a simulation study covering scenarios with or without biomarker effects. We applied the strategies to a large randomized phase III clinical trial that evaluated the effect of adding trastuzumab to chemotherapy in 1574 early breast cancer patients, for which the expression of 462 genes was measured. Results In our simulations, penalized regression models using the adaptive lasso estimated the survival probability of new patients with low bias and standard error; bootstrapped confidence intervals had empirical coverage probability close to the nominal level across very different scenarios. The double cross-validation performed on the training data set closely mimicked the predictive accuracy of the selected models in external validation data. We also propose a useful visual representation of the expected survival probabilities using splines. In the breast cancer trial, the adaptive lasso penalty selected a prediction model with 4

  13. Scaling Qualitative Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2017-01-01

    There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

  14. Posterior glenoid rim deficiency in recurrent (atraumatic) posterior shoulder instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weishaupt, D.; Zanetti, M.; Hodler, J.; Nyffeler, R.W.; Gerber, C.

    2000-01-01

    Objective. To assess the shape of the posterior glenoid rim in patients with recurrent (atraumatic) posterior instability.Design and patients. CT examinations of 15 shoulders with recurrent (atraumatic) posterior instability were reviewed in masked fashion with regard to abnormalities of the glenoid shape, specifically of its posterior rim. The glenoid version was also assessed. The findings were compared with the findings in 15 shoulders with recurrent anterior shoulder instability and 15 shoulders without instability. For all patients, surgical correlation was available.Results. Fourteen of the 15 (93%) shoulders with recurrent (atraumatic) posterior shoulder instability had a deficiency of the posteroinferior glenoid rim. In patients with recurrent anterior instability or stable shoulders such deficiencies were less common (60% and 73%, respectively). The craniocaudal length of the deficiencies was largest in patients with posterior instability. When a posteroinferior deficiency with a craniocaudal length of 12 mm or more was defined as abnormal, sensitivity and specificity for diagnosing recurrent (atraumatic) posterior instability were 86.7% and 83.3%, respectively. There was a statistically significant difference in glenoid version between shoulders with posterior instability and stable shoulders (P=0.01).Conclusion. Recurrent (atraumatic) posterior shoulder instability should be considered in patients with a bony deficiency of the posteroinferior glenoid rim with a craniocaudal length of more than 12 mm. (orig.)

  15. Irreducible Traumatic Posterior Shoulder Dislocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blake Collier

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available History of present illness: A 22-year-old male presented to the Emergency Department complaining of right shoulder pain after a motocross accident. He was traveling at approximately 10 mph around a turn when he lost control and was thrown over the handlebars, landing directly on his right shoulder. On arrival, he was holding his arm in adduction and internal rotation. An area of swelling was noted over his anterior shoulder. He was unable to abduct his shoulder. No humeral gapping was noted. He had normal neuro-vascular status distal to the injury. Significant findings: Radiographs demonstrated posterior displacement of the humeral head on the “Y” view (see white arrow and widening of the glenohumeral joint space on anterior-posterior view (see red arrow. The findings were consistent with posterior dislocation and a Hill-Sachs type deformity. Sedation was performed and reduction was attempted using external rotation, traction counter-traction. An immediate “pop” was felt during the procedure. Post-procedure radiographs revealed a persistent posterior subluxation with interlocking at posterior glenoid. CT revealed posterior dislocation with acute depressed impaction deformity medial to the biceps groove with the humeral head perched on the posterior glenoid, interlocked at reverse Hill-Sachs deformity (see blue arrow. Discussion: Posterior shoulder dislocations are rare and represent only 2% of all shoulder dislocations. Posterior shoulder dislocations are missed on initial diagnosis in more than 60% of cases.1 Posterior shoulder dislocations result from axial loading of the adducted and internally rotated shoulder, violent muscle contractions (resulting from seizures or electrocution, a direct posterior force applied to the anterior shoulder.1 Physical findings include decreased anterior prominence of the humeral head, increased palpable posterior prominence of the humeral head below the acromion, increased palpable prominence of the

  16. Progressive posterior cortical dysfunction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fábio Henrique de Gobbi Porto

    Full Text Available Abstract Progressive posterior cortical dysfunction (PPCD is an insidious syndrome characterized by prominent disorders of higher visual processing. It affects both dorsal (occipito-parietal and ventral (occipito-temporal pathways, disturbing visuospatial processing and visual recognition, respectively. We report a case of a 67-year-old woman presenting with progressive impairment of visual functions. Neurologic examination showed agraphia, alexia, hemispatial neglect (left side visual extinction, complete Balint's syndrome and visual agnosia. Magnetic resonance imaging showed circumscribed atrophy involving the bilateral parieto-occipital regions, slightly more predominant to the right . Our aim was to describe a case of this syndrome, to present a video showing the main abnormalities, and to discuss this unusual presentation of dementia. We believe this article can contribute by improving the recognition of PPCD.

  17. Progressive posterior cortical dysfunction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Fábio Henrique de Gobbi; Machado, Gislaine Cristina Lopes; Morillo, Lilian Schafirovits; Brucki, Sonia Maria Dozzi

    2010-01-01

    Progressive posterior cortical dysfunction (PPCD) is an insidious syndrome characterized by prominent disorders of higher visual processing. It affects both dorsal (occipito-parietal) and ventral (occipito-temporal) pathways, disturbing visuospatial processing and visual recognition, respectively. We report a case of a 67-year-old woman presenting with progressive impairment of visual functions. Neurologic examination showed agraphia, alexia, hemispatial neglect (left side visual extinction), complete Balint’s syndrome and visual agnosia. Magnetic resonance imaging showed circumscribed atrophy involving the bilateral parieto-occipital regions, slightly more predominant to the right. Our aim was to describe a case of this syndrome, to present a video showing the main abnormalities, and to discuss this unusual presentation of dementia. We believe this article can contribute by improving the recognition of PPCD. PMID:29213665

  18. Possibly Ill-behaved Posteriors in Econometric Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractHighly non-elliptical posterior distributions may occur in several econometric models, in particular, when the likelihood information is allowed to dominate and data information is weak. We explain the issue of highly non-elliptical posteriors in a model for the effect of education on

  19. Poor concordance of spiral CT (SCT) and high probability ventilation-perfusion (V/Q) studies in the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism (PE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roman, M.R.; Angelides, S.; Chen, N.

    2000-01-01

    Full text: Despite its limitations, V/Q scintigraphy remains the favoured non-invasive technique for the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism (PE). PE is present in 85-90% and 30-40% of high and intermediate probability V/Q studies respectively. The value of spiral CT (SCT), a newer imaging modality, has yet to be determined. The aims of this study were to determine the frequency of positive SCT for PE in high and intermediate probability V/Q studies performed within 24hr apart. 15 patients (6M, 9F, mean age - 70.2) with a high probability study were included. Six (40%) SCT were reported as positive (four with emboli present in the main pulmonary arteries), seven as negative, one equivocal and one was technically sub-optimal. Pulmonary angiography was not performed in any patient. In all seven negative studies, the SCT was performed before the V/Q study. Of these, two studies were revised to positive once the result of the V/Q study was known, while, three others had resolving mismatch V/Q defects on follow-up studies (performed 5-14 days later); two of these three also had a positive duplex scan of the lower limbs. One other was most likely due to chronic thromboembolic disease. Only three patients had a V/Q scan prior to the SCT; all were positive for PE on both imaging modalities. Of 26 patients (11M, 15F, mean age - 68.5) with an intermediate probability V/Q study, SCT was positive in only two (8%). Thus the low detection rate of PE by SCT in this albeit small series, raises doubts as to its role in the diagnosis of PE. Copyright (2000) The Australian and New Zealand Society of Nuclear Medicine Inc

  20. CT findings of posterior fossa venous angiomas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Satoh, Toru; Kinugasa, Kazushi; Nishimoto, Akira; Nishimoto, Ken.

    1986-01-01

    Three cases of posterior fossa venous angiomas were reported, with some comments on the CT findings. Case 1: A 53-year-old woman was admitted for the further examination of a viral meningitis which had appeared three months before. Neurological examination revealed no abnormality. Vertebral angiography, however, demonstrated numerous fine medullary veins, with an enlarged intraparenchymal draining vein, in the right cerebellum; they drained into the petrosal vein, which was characteristic of venous angioma. On the plain CT, part of the draining vein was identified as a slightly high-density node. A curvilinear draining vein was demonstrated by the enhanced CT. Case 2: A 29-year-old man was admitted complaining of headache, vomiting, and atxia. Neurological examination disclosed truncal ataxia. The enhanced CT demonstrated two distinct nodules on the anterior border of the hematoma in the deep median cerebellum, probably corresponding to the draining veins. On the angiogram, a venous angioma was found in the bilateral cerebellum; it drained into the precentral cerebellar veins and ultimately joined the straight sinus via the precentro-vermo-rectal vein. Case 3: A 4-year-old boy was admitted suffering from headache, vomiting, and ataxia. Neurological examination disclosed a co-ordination disturbance of the left side. The enhanced CT demonstrated a curvilinear structure inside the hematoma. Angiography showed a venous angioma in the left cerebellum which drained into the petrosal vein. Computerized angiotomography delineated the characteristic venous structure on the angiogram as many fine, high-density lines (medullary veins) converging to a large intraparenchymal linear structure (central medullary vein) and then to a superficial cortical vein. In all cases, large intraparenchymal draining veins were identified by the conventional CT. (J.P.N.)

  1. Orthodontic treatment for posterior crossbites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agostino, Paola; Ugolini, Alessandro; Signori, Alessio; Silvestrini-Biavati, Armando; Harrison, Jayne E; Riley, Philip

    2014-08-08

    included 15 studies, of which two were at low risk of bias, seven were at high risk of bias and six were unclear. Fixed appliances with mid-palatal expansionNine studies tested fixed appliances with mid-palatal expansion against each other. No study reported a difference between any type of appliance. Fixed versus removable appliancesFixed quad-helix appliances may be 20% more likely to correct crossbites than removable expansion plates (RR 1.20; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.37; two studies; 96 participants; low-quality evidence).Quad-helix appliances may achieve 1.15 mm more molar expansion than expansion plates (MD 1.15 mm; 95% CI 0.40 to 1.90; two studies; 96 participants; moderate-quality evidence).There was insufficient evidence of a difference in canine expansion or the stability of crossbite correction.Very limited evidence showed that both fixed quad-helix appliances and removable expansion plates were superior to composite onlays in terms of crossbite correction, molar and canine expansion. Other comparisonsVery limited evidence showed that treatments were superior to no treatment, but there was insufficient evidence of a difference between any active treatments. There is a very small body of low- to moderate-quality evidence to suggest that the quad-helix appliance may be more successful than removable expansion plates at correcting posterior crossbites and expanding the inter-molar width for children in the early mixed dentition (aged eight to 10 years). The remaining evidence we found was of very low quality and was insufficient to allow the conclusion that any one intervention is better than another for any of the outcomes in this review.

  2. OPTIMAL SURGICAL MANAGEMENT OF HIGH VELOCITY POSTERIOR TIBIAL PLATEAU FRACTURE SUBLUXATIONS (DUPARC, REVISED CLASSIFICATION, GROUP – V: POSTERO - MEDIAL FRACTURE BY DIRECT, DORSAL APPROACH – A CHANGING TREND: A PROSPECTIVE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pardhasaradhi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION : High - energy tibial plateau fractures are infrequent and technically demanding to treat especially if those are shearing type, coronal plane, displaced fractures. The most widely used the Schatzker system of classification , [1] ( B ased on the AP radiograph is more than likely to miss postero - medial and postero - lateral shear fractures, best visible on the lateral, than the AP radiograph. These fractures have recently been characterised by two studies, highlighti ng their clinical relevance [ 2,3] and showing that less invasive surgery and indirect reduction techniques are often inadequate. Hohl described unicondylar c oronal plane splitting fractures of the medial tibial plateau, noted that these injuries be considered as fracture - dislocations. Connolly and others have suggested that the mechanism involved in this fracture pattern is one of knee flexion, varus, and inter nal rotation of the medial femoral condyle . [4,5,6 ] Consistent among these and other authors is that the occurrence of this fragment is relatively unusual and that the use of a posteriorly based exposure with direct fracture visualization, anatomic reductio n and absolute stability appears to result in satisfactory outcomes. Though variations of a postero - medial approach been previously described ( by Trickey et al and also by Burks et al.,, more recently, Lobenhoffer et al described direct posterior exposure , Wang et al described postero - medial approach and Luo et al. described the approach for the management of posterior bicondylar tibial plateau fractures . [7,8] These approaches have been used in isolation or as a dual - incision approach for treating tibial plateau fractures . [9,10,11,12,13,14, 15] PURPOSE : The purpose of this study is to describe this unfamiliar direct posterior surgical (Medial Gastrocnemius approach to a general orthopod, highlighting the relevant anatomy and presenting our experience using this approach in treating a

  3. Development of Probability Evaluation Methodology for High Pressure/Temperature Gas Induced RCS Boundary Failure and SG Creep Rupture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Byung Chul; Hong, Soon Joon; Lee, Jin Yong; Lee, Kyung Jin; Lee, Kuh Hyung [FNC Tech. Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-04-15

    Existing MELCOR 1.8.5 model was improved in view of severe accident natural circulation and MELCOR 1.8.6 input model was developed and calculation sheets for detailed MELCOR 1.8.6 model were produced. Effects of natural circulation modeling were found by simulating SBO accident by comparing existing model with detailed model. Major phenomenon and system operations which affect on natural circulation by high temperature and high pressure gas were investigated and representative accident sequences for creep rupture model of RCS pipeline and SG tube were selected.

  4. On Probability Leakage

    OpenAIRE

    Briggs, William M.

    2012-01-01

    The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

  5. Gender Expression, Violence, and Bullying Victimization: Findings from Probability Samples of High School Students in 4 US School Districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Allegra R.; Conron, Kerith J.; Calzo, Jerel P.; White, Matthew T.; Reisner, Sari L.; Austin, S. Bryn

    2018-01-01

    Background: Young people may experience school-based violence and bullying victimization related to their gender expression, independent of sexual orientation identity. However, the associations between gender expression and bullying and violence have not been examined in racially and ethnically diverse population-based samples of high school…

  6. Late presentation of posterior urethral valves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalbani, Imran Khan; Biyabani, Syed Raziuddin

    2014-05-01

    Presence of posterior urethral valves (PUV) is the most common cause of urinary tract obstruction in the male neonate. Late presentation occurs in 10% of cases. We present a case of PUVs in an adult male who presented with history of obstructive lower urinary tract symptoms and hematuria. On evaluation, he was found to have raised serum creatinine level. A voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG) could not be completely performed because of narrowing in the posterior urethra. A rigid urethrocystoscopy was performed at which he was found to have type-I posterior urethral valve which were fulgurated. A repeat uroflowmetry revealed maximum flow rate of 12 ml/second. This case highlights that PUVs is not solely a disease of infancy but may also present late. VCUG is the radiological investigation of choice but the diagnosis may be missed. A urethrocystoscopy is advised if there is a high index of suspicion.

  7. Addendum to ‘Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities’

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galarraga, Ibon; Sainz de Murieta, Elisa; Markandya, Anil; María Abadie, Luis

    2018-02-01

    This addendum adds to the analysis presented in ‘Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities’ Abadie et al (2017 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 014017). We propose to use the framework developed earlier to enhance communication and understanding of risks, with the aim of bridging the gap between highly technical risk management discussion to the public risk aversion debate. We also propose that the framework could be used for stress-testing resilience.

  8. Analysis of HIV-1 intersubtype recombination breakpoints suggests region with high pairing probability may be a more fundamental factor than sequence similarity affecting HIV-1 recombination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Lei; Li, Lin; Gui, Tao; Liu, Siyang; Li, Hanping; Han, Jingwan; Guo, Wei; Liu, Yongjian; Li, Jingyun

    2016-09-21

    With increasing data on HIV-1, a more relevant molecular model describing mechanism details of HIV-1 genetic recombination usually requires upgrades. Currently an incomplete structural understanding of the copy choice mechanism along with several other issues in the field that lack elucidation led us to perform an analysis of the correlation between breakpoint distributions and (1) the probability of base pairing, and (2) intersubtype genetic similarity to further explore structural mechanisms. Near full length sequences of URFs from Asia, Europe, and Africa (one sequence/patient), and representative sequences of worldwide CRFs were retrieved from the Los Alamos HIV database. Their recombination patterns were analyzed by jpHMM in detail. Then the relationships between breakpoint distributions and (1) the probability of base pairing, and (2) intersubtype genetic similarities were investigated. Pearson correlation test showed that all URF groups and the CRF group exhibit the same breakpoint distribution pattern. Additionally, the Wilcoxon two-sample test indicated a significant and inexplicable limitation of recombination in regions with high pairing probability. These regions have been found to be strongly conserved across distinct biological states (i.e., strong intersubtype similarity), and genetic similarity has been determined to be a very important factor promoting recombination. Thus, the results revealed an unexpected disagreement between intersubtype similarity and breakpoint distribution, which were further confirmed by genetic similarity analysis. Our analysis reveals a critical conflict between results from natural HIV-1 isolates and those from HIV-1-based assay vectors in which genetic similarity has been shown to be a very critical factor promoting recombination. These results indicate the region with high-pairing probabilities may be a more fundamental factor affecting HIV-1 recombination than sequence similarity in natural HIV-1 infections. Our

  9. Posterior mediastinal teratoma diagnosis by computerized tomography and ultrasonography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choo, Yeon Myung; Im, Chung Kie; Yeon, Kyung Mo; Han, Man Chung [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1984-09-15

    Teratomas, usually arising in the anterior mediastinum, are very uncommon in the posterior mediastinum. Embryologic development of anterior mediastinal teratoma is thought to be from thymic anlage which descends from the third bronchial cleft and pouch, while that of posterior mediastinal teratoma is thought to be from the remnant of notochord. CT findings of posterior mediastinal teratomas are not different from teratomas elsewhere, containing fat, calcification, soft tissue and thick walled cyst. Ultrasonographic findings are mixed echogenic mass containing cystic portion, highly reflective solid portion and area of acoustic shadowing. Authors recently experienced 2 cases of surgically proven posterior mediastinal teratoma and report with review of literature.

  10. Posterior mediastinal teratoma diagnosis by computerized tomography and ultrasonography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choo, Yeon Myung; Im, Chung Kie; Yeon, Kyung Mo; Han, Man Chung

    1984-01-01

    Teratomas, usually arising in the anterior mediastinum, are very uncommon in the posterior mediastinum. Embryologic development of anterior mediastinal teratoma is thought to be from thymic anlage which descends from the third bronchial cleft and pouch, while that of posterior mediastinal teratoma is thought to be from the remnant of notochord. CT findings of posterior mediastinal teratomas are not different from teratomas elsewhere, containing fat, calcification, soft tissue and thick walled cyst. Ultrasonographic findings are mixed echogenic mass containing cystic portion, highly reflective solid portion and area of acoustic shadowing. Authors recently experienced 2 cases of surgically proven posterior mediastinal teratoma and report with review of literature.

  11. Probability 1/e

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  12. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Goldberg, Samuel

    1960-01-01

    Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

  13. Late-onset Alzheimer disease genetic variants in posterior cortical atrophy and posterior AD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasquillo, Minerva M; Khan, Qurat ul Ain; Murray, Melissa E; Krishnan, Siddharth; Aakre, Jeremiah; Pankratz, V Shane; Nguyen, Thuy; Ma, Li; Bisceglio, Gina; Petersen, Ronald C; Younkin, Steven G; Dickson, Dennis W; Boeve, Bradley F; Graff-Radford, Neill R; Ertekin-Taner, Nilüfer

    2014-04-22

    To investigate association of genetic risk factors for late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) with risk of posterior cortical atrophy (PCA), a syndrome of visual impairment with predominant Alzheimer disease (AD) pathology in posterior cortical regions, and with risk of "posterior AD" neuropathology. We assessed 81 participants with PCA diagnosed clinically and 54 with neuropathologic diagnosis of posterior AD vs 2,523 controls for association with 11 significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from published LOAD risk genome-wide association studies. There was highly significant association with APOE ε4 and increased risk of PCA (p = 0.0003, odds ratio [OR] = 3.17) and posterior AD (p = 1.11 × 10(-17), OR = 6.43). No other locus was significant after corrections for multiple testing, although rs11136000 near CLU (p = 0.019, OR = 0.60) and rs744373 near BIN1 (p = 0.025, OR = 1. 63) associated nominally significantly with posterior AD, and rs3851179 at the PICALM locus had significant association with PCA (p = 0.0003, OR = 2.84). ABCA7 locus SNP rs3764650, which was also tested under the recessive model because of Hardy-Weinberg disequilibrium, also had nominally significant association with PCA risk. The direction of association at APOE, CLU, and BIN1 loci was the same for participants with PCA and posterior AD. The effects for all SNPs, except rs3851179, were consistent with those for LOAD risk. We identified a significant effect for APOE and nominate CLU, BIN1, and ABCA7 as additional risk loci for PCA and posterior AD. Our findings suggest that at least some of the genetic risk factors for LOAD are shared with these atypical conditions and provide effect-size estimates for their future genetic studies.

  14. Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

    2004-01-01

    Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

  15. Applied probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Sumita, Ushio

    1999-01-01

    Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

  16. Diagnosis of abnormally invasive posterior placentation: the role of MR imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocher, Madison R; Sheafor, Douglas H; Bruner, Evelyn; Newman, Charles; Mateus Nino, Julio Fernando

    2017-06-01

    Abnormally invasive placentation is becoming more common with a recent increase in cesarean sections and maternal age, among other risk factors. Ultrasonography is the first line-imaging, but it can be difficult to diagnose when limiting factors are present. Failure to recognize this serious placental abnormality precludes us from making the appropriate plan for the delivery and consequently can lead to fatal results. In this report, we present a case in which magnetic resonance imaging was used to diagnose posterior placenta increta missed by multiple sonographic examinations in a patient with previous myomectomies, and we also include a review of the literature on this topic. It is our conclusion that magnetic resonance imaging is superior to sonography to diagnose abnormally invasive placentation in cases of posterior placenta previa and high pretesting probability.

  17. Diagnosis of abnormally invasive posterior placentation: the role of MR imaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madison R. Kocher, BS

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Abnormally invasive placentation is becoming more common with a recent increase in cesarean sections and maternal age, among other risk factors. Ultrasonography is the first line-imaging, but it can be difficult to diagnose when limiting factors are present. Failure to recognize this serious placental abnormality precludes us from making the appropriate plan for the delivery and consequently can lead to fatal results. In this report, we present a case in which magnetic resonance imaging was used to diagnose posterior placenta increta missed by multiple sonographic examinations in a patient with previous myomectomies, and we also include a review of the literature on this topic. It is our conclusion that magnetic resonance imaging is superior to sonography to diagnose abnormally invasive placentation in cases of posterior placenta previa and high pretesting probability.

  18. Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassinelli, G.

    1979-01-01

    The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)

  19. Overlapping sphincteroplasty and posterior repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crane, Andrea K; Myers, Erinn M; Lippmann, Quinn K; Matthews, Catherine A

    2014-12-01

    Knowledge of how to anatomically reconstruct extensive posterior-compartment defects is variable among gynecologists. The objective of this video is to demonstrate an effective technique of overlapping sphincteroplasty and posterior repair. In this video, a scripted storyboard was constructed that outlines the key surgical steps of a comprehensive posterior compartment repair: (1) surgical incision that permits access to posterior compartment and perineal body, (2) dissection of the rectovaginal space up to the level of the cervix, (3) plication of the rectovaginal muscularis, (4) repair of internal and external anal sphincters, and (5) reconstruction of the perineal body. Using a combination of graphic illustrations and live video footage, tips on repair are highlighted. The goals at the end of repair are to: (1) have improved vaginal caliber, (2) increase rectal tone along the entire posterior vaginal wall, (3) have the posterior vaginal wall at a perpendicular plane to the perineal body, (4) reform the hymenal ring, and (5) not have an overly elongated perineal body. This video provides a step-by-step guide on how to perform an overlapping sphincteroplasty and posterior repair.

  20. Classification of posterior vitreous detachment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakehashi, Akihiro; Takezawa, Mikiko; Akiba, Jun

    2014-01-01

    Diagnosing a posterior vitreous detachment (PVD) is important for predicting the prognosis and determining the indication for vitreoretinal surgery in many vitreoretinal diseases. This article presents both classifications of a PVD by slit-lamp biomicroscopy and of a shallow PVD by optical coherence tomography (OCT). By biomicroscopy, the vitreous condition is determined based on the presence or absence of a PVD. The PVD then is classified as either a complete posterior vitreous detachment (C-PVD) or a partial posterior vitreous detachment (P-PVD). A C-PVD is further divided into a C-PVD with collapse and a C-PVD without collapse, while a P-PVD is divided into a P-PVD with shrinkage of the posterior hyaloid membrane (P-PVD with shrinkage) and a P-PVD without shrinkage of the posterior hyaloid membrane (P-PVD without shrinkage). A P-PVD without shrinkage has a subtype characterized by vitreous gel attachment through the premacular hole in a posterior hyaloid membrane to the macula (P-PVD without shrinkage [M]). By OCT, a shallow PVD is classified as the absence of a shallow PVD or as a shallow PVD. A shallow PVD is then subclassified as a shallow PVD without shrinkage of the posterior vitreous cortex, a shallow PVD with shrinkage of the posterior vitreous cortex, and a peripheral shallow PVD. A shallow PVD without shrinkage of the posterior vitreous cortex has two subtypes: an age-related shallow PVD and a perifoveal PVD associated with a macular hole. PMID:24376338

  1. Primary Posterior Mediastinum Hydatid Cyst

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, M.; Eid, A. F.; Sheikh, M. Y.; Yiannakou, N.

    2014-01-01

    Primary posterior mediastinal hydatid cyst is a serious health problem for the Mediterranean countries. We diagnosed a case of a 46-year-old female with a primary posterior mediastinum hydatid cyst on CT and MRI. It was provisionally identified as either a hydatid cyst or bronchogenic cyst or neuroenteric cyst. CT guided aspiration with 18 gauge needle confirmed as hydatid sand. This is very rare in this population but it should be kept in mind when one is looking at any cyst in the posterior mediastinum. (author)

  2. A Probability Co-Kriging Model to Account for Reporting Bias and Recognize Areas at High Risk for Zebra Mussels and Eurasian Watermilfoil Invasions in Minnesota

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaushi S. T. Kanankege

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Zebra mussels (ZMs (Dreissena polymorpha and Eurasian watermilfoil (EWM (Myriophyllum spicatum are aggressive aquatic invasive species posing a conservation burden on Minnesota. Recognizing areas at high risk for invasion is a prerequisite for the implementation of risk-based prevention and mitigation management strategies. The early detection of invasion has been challenging, due in part to the imperfect observation process of invasions including the absence of a surveillance program, reliance on public reporting, and limited resource availability, which results in reporting bias. To predict the areas at high risk for invasions, while accounting for underreporting, we combined network analysis and probability co-kriging to estimate the risk of ZM and EWM invasions. We used network analysis to generate a waterbody-specific variable representing boater traffic, a known high risk activity for human-mediated transportation of invasive species. In addition, co-kriging was used to estimate the probability of species introduction, using waterbody-specific variables. A co-kriging model containing distance to the nearest ZM infested location, boater traffic, and road access was used to recognize the areas at high risk for ZM invasions (AUC = 0.78. The EWM co-kriging model included distance to the nearest EWM infested location, boater traffic, and connectivity to infested waterbodies (AUC = 0.76. Results suggested that, by 2015, nearly 20% of the waterbodies in Minnesota were at high risk of ZM (12.45% or EWM (12.43% invasions, whereas only 125/18,411 (0.67% and 304/18,411 (1.65% are currently infested, respectively. Prediction methods presented here can support decisions related to solving the problems of imperfect detection, which subsequently improve the early detection of biological invasions.

  3. A Probability Co-Kriging Model to Account for Reporting Bias and Recognize Areas at High Risk for Zebra Mussels and Eurasian Watermilfoil Invasions in Minnesota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanankege, Kaushi S T; Alkhamis, Moh A; Phelps, Nicholas B D; Perez, Andres M

    2017-01-01

    Zebra mussels (ZMs) ( Dreissena polymorpha ) and Eurasian watermilfoil (EWM) ( Myriophyllum spicatum ) are aggressive aquatic invasive species posing a conservation burden on Minnesota. Recognizing areas at high risk for invasion is a prerequisite for the implementation of risk-based prevention and mitigation management strategies. The early detection of invasion has been challenging, due in part to the imperfect observation process of invasions including the absence of a surveillance program, reliance on public reporting, and limited resource availability, which results in reporting bias. To predict the areas at high risk for invasions, while accounting for underreporting, we combined network analysis and probability co-kriging to estimate the risk of ZM and EWM invasions. We used network analysis to generate a waterbody-specific variable representing boater traffic, a known high risk activity for human-mediated transportation of invasive species. In addition, co-kriging was used to estimate the probability of species introduction, using waterbody-specific variables. A co-kriging model containing distance to the nearest ZM infested location, boater traffic, and road access was used to recognize the areas at high risk for ZM invasions (AUC = 0.78). The EWM co-kriging model included distance to the nearest EWM infested location, boater traffic, and connectivity to infested waterbodies (AUC = 0.76). Results suggested that, by 2015, nearly 20% of the waterbodies in Minnesota were at high risk of ZM (12.45%) or EWM (12.43%) invasions, whereas only 125/18,411 (0.67%) and 304/18,411 (1.65%) are currently infested, respectively. Prediction methods presented here can support decisions related to solving the problems of imperfect detection, which subsequently improve the early detection of biological invasions.

  4. Diagnostic accuracy of the MMSE in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease in ethnically diverse highly educated individuals: an analysis of the NACC database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spering, Cynthia C; Hobson, Valerie; Lucas, John A; Menon, Chloe V; Hall, James R; O'Bryant, Sid E

    2012-08-01

    To validate and extend the findings of a raised cut score of O'Bryant and colleagues (O'Bryant SE, Humphreys JD, Smith GE, et al. Detecting dementia with the mini-mental state examination in highly educated individuals. Arch Neurol. 2008;65(7):963-967.) for the Mini-Mental State Examination in detecting cognitive dysfunction in a bilingual sample of highly educated ethnically diverse individuals. Archival data were reviewed from participants enrolled in the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center minimum data set. Data on 7,093 individuals with 16 or more years of education were analyzed, including 2,337 cases with probable and possible Alzheimer's disease, 1,418 mild cognitive impairment patients, and 3,088 nondemented controls. Ethnic composition was characterized as follows: 6,296 Caucasians, 581 African Americans, 4 American Indians or Alaska natives, 2 native Hawaiians or Pacific Islanders, 149 Asians, 43 "Other," and 18 of unknown origin. Diagnostic accuracy estimates (sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio) of Mini-Mental State Examination cut scores in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease were examined. A standard Mini-Mental State Examination cut score of 24 (≤23) yielded a sensitivity of 0.58 and a specificity of 0.98 in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease across ethnicities. A cut score of 27 (≤26) resulted in an improved balance of sensitivity and specificity (0.79 and 0.90, respectively). In the cognitively impaired group (mild cognitive impairment and probable and possible Alzheimer's disease), the standard cut score yielded a sensitivity of 0.38 and a specificity of 1.00 while raising the cut score to 27 resulted in an improved balance of 0.59 and 0.96 of sensitivity and specificity, respectively. These findings cross-validate our previous work and extend them to an ethnically diverse cohort. A higher cut score is needed to maximize diagnostic accuracy of the Mini-Mental State Examination in individuals

  5. Posterior fossa meningioma (surgical experiences)

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Wael M. Moussa

    2012-08-27

    Aug 27, 2012 ... of the CNS, representing about a third of brain tumors. They arise from the ... subtypes based on cell structure.1–4 In 1979, the World Health. Organization .... anterior or posterior to the internal auditory meatus), petrocli-.

  6. Variations of posterior vitreous detachment

    OpenAIRE

    Kakehashi, A.; Kado, M.; Akiba, J.; Hirokawa, H.

    1997-01-01

    AIMS—To identify variations in posterior vitreous detachment (PVD) and establish a clinical classification system for PVD.
METHODS—400 consecutive eyes were examined using biomicroscopy and vitreous photography and classified the PVD variations—complete PVD with collapse, complete PVD without collapse, partial PVD with thickened posterior vitreous cortex (TPVC), or partial PVD without TPVC.
RESULTS—In each PVD type, the most frequently seen ocular pathologies were as follows: in complete PVD ...

  7. Philosophical theories of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2000-01-01

    The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

  8. MRI evaluation of the posterior meniscus root tear

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Jianjun; Zheng Zhuozhao; Li Xuan

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To determine the value of MRI for diagnosing the posterior meniscus root tear. Methods: MR examinations of 30 patients with tear of the posterior meniscus root confirmed by knee arthroscopies were retrospectively reviewed. Of the 30 patients, 17 with posterior medial meniscus root tear (MMRT) and 13 with posterior lateral meniscus root tear (LMRT). The diagnostic sensitivity of' MRI for the posterior meniscus root tear was analyzed. Fisher's exact test was used to compare the detection rate of MRI for MMRT with that for LMRT. Results: All 17 cases with MMRT and 9 cases out of 13 with LMRT were correctly diagnosed by MRI and the diagnostic sensitivity of MRI for the posterior meniscus root tear was 86.7% (26/30). The main MR appearance of the posterior meniscus root tear was distortion of the meniscal root, with its low signal replaced by abnormal high signal. The detection rate of MRI for MMRT (17/17) was significantly greater than that for LMRT (9/13) (P=0.026). The prevalence of MMRT associated with meniscus extrusion (15/17) was significantly greater than that of LMRT (6/13) (P=0.020), but the prevalence of MMRT associated with anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury (5/17) was significantly lower than that of LMRT (11/13) (P=0.004). Conclusion: MRI is a relatively good method for detection of posterior meniscus root tears and associated injuries. (authors)

  9. Non-Archimedean Probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

    We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

  10. Interpretations of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2009-01-01

    This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

  11. Comparison of Wells and Revised Geneva Rule to Assess Pretest Probability of Pulmonary Embolism in High-Risk Hospitalized Elderly Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Marca, Salvatore; Cilia, Chiara; Campagna, Andrea; D'Arrigo, Graziella; Abd ElHafeez, Samar; Tripepi, Giovanni; Puccia, Giuseppe; Pisano, Marcella; Mastrosimone, Gianluca; Terranova, Valentina; Cardella, Antonella; Buonacera, Agata; Stancanelli, Benedetta; Zoccali, Carmine; Malatino, Lorenzo

    2015-06-01

    To assess and compare the diagnostic power for pulmonary embolism (PE) of Wells and revised Geneva scores in two independent cohorts (training and validation groups) of elderly adults hospitalized in a non-emergency department. Prospective clinical study, January 2011 to January 2013. Unit of Internal Medicine inpatients, University of Catania, Italy. Elderly adults (mean age 76 ± 12), presenting with dyspnea or chest pain and with high clinical probability of PE or D-dimer values greater than 500 ng/mL (N = 203), were enrolled and consecutively assigned to a training (n = 101) or a validation (n = 102) group. The clinical probability of PE was assessed using Wells and revised Geneva scores. Clinical examination, D-dimer test, and multidetector computed angiotomography were performed in all participants. The accuracy of the scores was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analyses. PE was confirmed in 46 participants (23%) (24 training group, 22 validation group). In the training group, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.85-0.98) for the Wells score and 0.69 (95% CI = 0.56-0.82) for the revised Geneva score (P < .001). These results were confirmed in the validation group (P < .05). The positive (LR+) and negative likelihood ratios (LR-) (two indices combining sensitivity and specificity) of the Wells score were superior to those of the revised Geneva score in the training (LR+, 7.90 vs 1.34; LR-, 0.23 vs 0.66) and validation (LR+, 13.5 vs 1.46; LR-, 0.47 vs 0.54) groups. In high-risk elderly hospitalized adults, the Wells score is more accurate than the revised Geneva score for diagnosing PE. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

  12. Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications

    CERN Document Server

    Helms, Lester L

    2010-01-01

    This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process

  13. Probability with applications and R

    CERN Document Server

    Dobrow, Robert P

    2013-01-01

    An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c

  14. Hypertension as the trigger for posterior reversible encephalopathy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    RESEARCH. Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES) is a neuro ..... rise of blood pressure instead of the sustained levels of hypertension in these patients. .... high prevalence and more extensive imaging findings. Am J Kidney ...

  15. Epidural hematomas of posterior fossa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radulović Danilo

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Posterior fossa epidural hematomas represent 7-14% of all traumatic intracranial epidural hematomas. They are most frequently encountered posttraumatic mass lesions in the posterior fossa. The aim of this study was to identify clinical features that could lead to the early diagnosis of posterior fossa epidural hematoma. Methods. Between 1980 and 2002, 28 patients with epidural hematoma of the posterior fossa were operated on at the Institute for Neurosurgery, Belgrade. Clinical course neuroradiological investigations, and the results of surgical treatment of the patients with posterior fossa epidural hematomas were analyzed retrospectively. Results. Almost two thirds of patients were younger than 16 years of age. In 20 cases injury was caused by a fall, in 6 cases by a traffic accident, and in 2 by the assault. Clinical course was subacute or chronic in two thirds of the patients. On the admission Glasgow Coma Scale was 7 or less in 9 injured, 8-14 in 14 injured, and 15 in 5 injured patients. Linear fracture of the occipital bone was radiographically evident in 19 patients, but was intraoperatively encountered in all the patients except for a 4-year old child. In 25 patients the diagnosis was established by computer assisted tomography (CAT and in 3 by vertebral angiography. All the patients were operated on via suboccipital craniotomy. Four injured patients who were preoperatively comatose were with lethal outcome. Postoperatively, 24 patients were with sufficient neurologic recovery. Conclusion. Posterior fossa epidural hematoma should be suspected in cases of occipital injury, consciousness disturbances, and occipital bone fracture. In such cases urgent CAT-scan is recommended. Early recognition early diagnosis, and prompt treatment are crucial for good neurological recovery after surgery.

  16. Foundations of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraassen, B.C. van

    1979-01-01

    The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)

  17. Analytic Neutrino Oscillation Probabilities in Matter: Revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parke, Stephen J. [Fermilab; Denton, Peter B. [Copenhagen U.; Minakata, Hisakazu [Madrid, IFT

    2018-01-02

    We summarize our recent paper on neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter, explaining the importance, relevance and need for simple, highly accurate approximations to the neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter.

  18. Low-Probability High-Consequence (LPHC) Failure Events in Geologic Carbon Sequestration Pipelines and Wells: Framework for LPHC Risk Assessment Incorporating Spatial Variability of Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oldenburg, Curtis M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Budnitz, Robert J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-08-31

    If Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) is to be effective in mitigating climate change, it will need to be carried out on a very large scale. This will involve many thousands of miles of dedicated high-pressure pipelines in order to transport many millions of tonnes of CO2 annually, with the CO2 delivered to many thousands of wells that will inject the CO2 underground. The new CCS infrastructure could rival in size the current U.S. upstream natural gas pipeline and well infrastructure. This new infrastructure entails hazards for life, health, animals, the environment, and natural resources. Pipelines are known to rupture due to corrosion, from external forces such as impacts by vehicles or digging equipment, by defects in construction, or from the failure of valves and seals. Similarly, wells are vulnerable to catastrophic failure due to corrosion, cement degradation, or operational mistakes. While most accidents involving pipelines and wells will be minor, there is the inevitable possibility of accidents with very high consequences, especially to public health. The most important consequence of concern is CO2 release to the environment in concentrations sufficient to cause death by asphyxiation to nearby populations. Such accidents are thought to be very unlikely, but of course they cannot be excluded, even if major engineering effort is devoted (as it will be) to keeping their probability low and their consequences minimized. This project has developed a methodology for analyzing the risks of these rare but high-consequence accidents, using a step-by-step probabilistic methodology. A key difference between risks for pipelines and wells is that the former are spatially distributed along the pipe whereas the latter are confined to the vicinity of the well. Otherwise, the methodology we develop for risk assessment of pipeline and well failures is similar and provides an analysis both of the annual probabilities of

  19. The quantum probability calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jauch, J.M.

    1976-01-01

    The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

  20. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

  1. Unsuccessful outcomes after posterior urethroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Oliver; Fisch, Margit

    2015-03-01

    Posterior urethroplasty is the most common strategy for the treatment of post-traumatic urethral injuries. Especially in younger patients, post-traumatic injuries are a common reason for urethral strictures caused by road traffic accidents, with pelvic fracture or direct trauma to the perineum. In many cases early endoscopic realignment is the first attempt to restore the junction between proximal and distal urethra, but in some cases primary realignment is not possible or not enough to treat the urethral injury. In these cases suprapubic cystostomy alone and delayed repair by stricture excision and posterior urethroplasty is an alternative procedure to minimise the risk of stricture recurrence.

  2. Probability of satellite collision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccarter, J. W.

    1972-01-01

    A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

  3. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

  4. Handbook of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Florescu, Ionut

    2013-01-01

    THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

  5. Real analysis and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

    1972-01-01

    Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

  6. Evaluation of the probability of arrester failure in a high-voltage transmission line using a Q learning artificial neural network model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekonomou, L; Karampelas, P; Vita, V; Chatzarakis, G E

    2011-01-01

    One of the most popular methods of protecting high voltage transmission lines against lightning strikes and internal overvoltages is the use of arresters. The installation of arresters in high voltage transmission lines can prevent or even reduce the lines' failure rate. Several studies based on simulation tools have been presented in order to estimate the critical currents that exceed the arresters' rated energy stress and to specify the arresters' installation interval. In this work artificial intelligence, and more specifically a Q-learning artificial neural network (ANN) model, is addressed for evaluating the arresters' failure probability. The aims of the paper are to describe in detail the developed Q-learning ANN model and to compare the results obtained by its application in operating 150 kV Greek transmission lines with those produced using a simulation tool. The satisfactory and accurate results of the proposed ANN model can make it a valuable tool for designers of electrical power systems seeking more effective lightning protection, reducing operational costs and better continuity of service

  7. Evaluation of the probability of arrester failure in a high-voltage transmission line using a Q learning artificial neural network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekonomou, L.; Karampelas, P.; Vita, V.; Chatzarakis, G. E.

    2011-04-01

    One of the most popular methods of protecting high voltage transmission lines against lightning strikes and internal overvoltages is the use of arresters. The installation of arresters in high voltage transmission lines can prevent or even reduce the lines' failure rate. Several studies based on simulation tools have been presented in order to estimate the critical currents that exceed the arresters' rated energy stress and to specify the arresters' installation interval. In this work artificial intelligence, and more specifically a Q-learning artificial neural network (ANN) model, is addressed for evaluating the arresters' failure probability. The aims of the paper are to describe in detail the developed Q-learning ANN model and to compare the results obtained by its application in operating 150 kV Greek transmission lines with those produced using a simulation tool. The satisfactory and accurate results of the proposed ANN model can make it a valuable tool for designers of electrical power systems seeking more effective lightning protection, reducing operational costs and better continuity of service.

  8. No Bridge Too High: Infants Decide Whether to Cross Based on the Probability of Falling not the Severity of the Potential Fall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kretch, Kari S.; Adolph, Karen E.

    2013-01-01

    Do infants, like adults, consider both the probability of falling and the severity of a potential fall when deciding whether to cross a bridge? Crawling and walking infants were encouraged to cross bridges varying in width over a small drop-off, a large drop-off, or no drop-off. Bridge width affects the probability of falling, whereas drop-off…

  9. Back to Normal! Gaussianizing posterior distributions for cosmological probes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuhmann, Robert L.; Joachimi, Benjamin; Peiris, Hiranya V.

    2014-05-01

    We present a method to map multivariate non-Gaussian posterior probability densities into Gaussian ones via nonlinear Box-Cox transformations, and generalizations thereof. This is analogous to the search for normal parameters in the CMB, but can in principle be applied to any probability density that is continuous and unimodal. The search for the optimally Gaussianizing transformation amongst the Box-Cox family is performed via a maximum likelihood formalism. We can judge the quality of the found transformation a posteriori: qualitatively via statistical tests of Gaussianity, and more illustratively by how well it reproduces the credible regions. The method permits an analytical reconstruction of the posterior from a sample, e.g. a Markov chain, and simplifies the subsequent joint analysis with other experiments. Furthermore, it permits the characterization of a non-Gaussian posterior in a compact and efficient way. The expression for the non-Gaussian posterior can be employed to find analytic formulae for the Bayesian evidence, and consequently be used for model comparison.

  10. Introduction to probability

    CERN Document Server

    Freund, John E

    1993-01-01

    Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

  11. Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varacca, Daniele

    Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...

  12. Prevention of posterior capsular opacification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nibourg, Lisanne M; Gelens, Edith; Kuijer, Roelof; Hooymans, Johanna Mm; van Kooten, Theo G; Koopmans, Steven A

    Posterior capsular opacification (PCO) is a common complication of cataract surgery. The development of PCO is due to a combination of the processes of proliferation, migration, and transdifferentiation of residual lens epithelial cells (LECs) on the lens capsule. In the past decades, various forms

  13. The ectopic posterior pituitary gland

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-11-04

    Nov 4, 2013 ... crinology with short stature, delayed bone age and biochemical features suggestive of hypo pituitarism. Magnetic resonance imaging of the brain demonstrated a flattened anterior pituitary gland within the sella, associated with absence of the infundibular stalk and an ectopic posterior pituitary gland (Fig.

  14. [Posterior ceramic bonded partial restorations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainjot, Amélie; Vanheusden, Alain

    2006-01-01

    Posterior ceramic bonded partial restorations are conservative and esthetic approaches for compromised teeth. Overlays constitute a less invasive alternative for tooth tissues than crown preparations. With inlays and onlays they are also indicated in case of full arch or quadrant rehabilitations including several teeth. This article screens indications and realization of this type of restorations.

  15. Janus-faced probability

    CERN Document Server

    Rocchi, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

  16. Efficient visual object and word recognition relies on high spatial frequency coding in the left posterior fusiform gyrus: evidence from a case-series of patients with ventral occipito-temporal cortex damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Daniel J; Woollams, Anna M; Kim, Esther; Beeson, Pelagie M; Rapcsak, Steven Z; Lambon Ralph, Matthew A

    2013-11-01

    Recent visual neuroscience investigations suggest that ventral occipito-temporal cortex is retinotopically organized, with high acuity foveal input projecting primarily to the posterior fusiform gyrus (pFG), making this region crucial for coding high spatial frequency information. Because high spatial frequencies are critical for fine-grained visual discrimination, we hypothesized that damage to the left pFG should have an adverse effect not only on efficient reading, as observed in pure alexia, but also on the processing of complex non-orthographic visual stimuli. Consistent with this hypothesis, we obtained evidence that a large case series (n = 20) of patients with lesions centered on left pFG: 1) Exhibited reduced sensitivity to high spatial frequencies; 2) demonstrated prolonged response latencies both in reading (pure alexia) and object naming; and 3) were especially sensitive to visual complexity and similarity when discriminating between novel visual patterns. These results suggest that the patients' dual reading and non-orthographic recognition impairments have a common underlying mechanism and reflect the loss of high spatial frequency visual information normally coded in the left pFG.

  17. BL153 Partially Prevents High-Fat Diet Induced Liver Damage Probably via Inhibition of Lipid Accumulation, Inflammation, and Oxidative Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study was to investigate whether a magnolia extract, named BL153, can prevent obesity-induced liver damage and identify the possible protective mechanism. To this end, obese mice were induced by feeding with high fat diet (HFD, 60% kcal as fat and the age-matched control mice were fed with control diet (10% kcal as fat for 6 months. Simultaneously these mice were treated with or without BL153 daily at 3 dose levels (2.5, 5, and 10 mg/kg by gavage. HFD feeding significantly increased the body weight and the liver weight. Administration of BL153 significantly reduced the liver weight but without effects on body weight. As a critical step of the development of NAFLD, hepatic fibrosis was induced in the mice fed with HFD, shown by upregulating the expression of connective tissue growth factor and transforming growth factor beta 1, which were significantly attenuated by BL153 in a dose-dependent manner. Mechanism study revealed that BL153 significantly suppressed HFD induced hepatic lipid accumulation and oxidative stress and slightly prevented liver inflammation. These results suggest that HFD induced fibrosis in the liver can be prevented partially by BL153, probably due to reduction of hepatic lipid accumulation, inflammation and oxidative stress.

  18. Parascapular mass revealing primary tuberculosis of the posterior arch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbault, Anais; Ornetti, Paul; Chevallier, Olivier; Avril, Julien; Pottecher, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    We report the case of a parascapular abscess revealing primary tuberculosis of the posterior arch in a 31-year-old man. Sectional imaging is essential in order to detect the different lesions of this atypical spinal tuberculosis as osteolysis of the posterior arch extendible to vertebral body, osteocondensation, epidural extension which is common in this location, and high specificity of a zygapophysial, costo-vertebral or transverse arthritis. PMID:27709081

  19. Posterior Lattice Degeneration Characterized by Spectral Domain Optical Tomography

    OpenAIRE

    Manjunath, Varsha; Taha, Mohammed; Fujimoto, James G.; Duker, Jay S.

    2011-01-01

    PURPOSE: To utilize high-resolution spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) in the characterization of retinal and vitreal morphological changes overlying posterior lattice degeneration. METHODS: A cross-sectional, retrospective analysis was performed on 13 eyes of 13 nonconsecutive subjects with posterior lattice degeneration seen at the New England Eye Center, Tufts Medical Center between October 2009 and January 2010. SD-OCT images taken through the region of latti...

  20. Hematomas na fossa craniana posterior Haematomata in the posterior fossa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mário S. Cademartori

    1969-09-01

    Full Text Available São relatados 6 casos de hematomas sub-tentorias (um de hematoma subdural crônico, quatro de hematomas intra-cerebelares, um de hematoma extra-dural. Salientando a pequena freqüência dos hematomas da fossa craniana posterior, o autor mostra a necessidade de vários exames complementares para o diagnóstico exato, indispensável para a aplicação de terapêutica cirúrgica adequada.Six cases of sub-tentorial haematomata (one chronic sub-dural, four intra-cerebellar, one extra-dural are reported. Emphasizing the relative rarity of haematomata in the posterior cranial fossa, the author claims the necessity of complementary examinations for proper diagnosis, indispensable for adequate surgical treatment.

  1. Probability and Measure

    CERN Document Server

    Billingsley, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

  2. The concept of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bitsakis, E.I.; Nicolaides, C.A.

    1989-01-01

    The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs

  3. Probability for statisticians

    CERN Document Server

    Shorack, Galen R

    2017-01-01

    This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

  4. Concepts of probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Pfeiffer, Paul E

    1979-01-01

    Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.

  5. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  6. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  7. Probabilities in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hartmann, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

  8. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Grimmett, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

  9. Probability in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hemmo, Meir

    2012-01-01

    What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

  10. Probability in quantum mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Gilson

    1982-01-01

    Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.

  11. Quantum computing and probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-11-25

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

  12. Quantum computing and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-01-01

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction. (viewpoint)

  13. Posterior Urethroplasty Complexity and Prognosis Can be Described by a Novel Method: Posterior Urethral Stenosis Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lin; Lv, Xiangguo; Jin, Chongrui; Guo, Hailin; Shu, Huiquan; Fu, Qiang; Sa, Yinglong

    2018-02-01

    To develop a standardized PU-score (posterior urethral stenosis score), with the goal of using this scoring system as a preliminary predictor of surgical complexity and prognosis of posterior urethral stenosis. We retrospectively reviewed records of all patients who underwent posterior urethral surgery at our institution from 2013 to 2015. The PU-score is based on 5 components, namely etiology (1 or 2 points), location (1-3 points), length (1-3 points), urethral fistula (1 or 2 points), and posterior urethral false passage (1 point). We calculated the score of all patients and analyzed its association with surgical complexity, stenosis recurrence, intraoperative blood loss, erectile dysfunction, and urinary incontinence. There were 144 patients who underwent low complexity urethral surgery (direct vision internal urethrotomy, anastomosis with or without crural separation) with a mean score of 5.1 points, whereas 143 underwent high complexity urethroplasty (anastomosis with inferior pubectomy or urethrorectal fistula repair, perineal or scrotum skin flap urethroplasty, bladder flap urethroplasty) with a mean score of 6.9 points. The increase of PU-score was predictive of higher surgical complexity (P = .000), higher recurrence (P = .002), more intraoperative blood loss (P = .000), and decrease of preoperative (P = .037) or postoperative erectile function (P = .047). However, no association was observed between PU-score and urinary incontinence (P = .213). The PU-score is a novel and meaningful scoring system that describes the essential factors in determining the complexity and prognosis for posterior urethral stenosis. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  14. Visual attention in posterior stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fabricius, Charlotte; Petersen, Anders; Iversen, Helle K

    Objective: Impaired visual attention is common following strokes in the territory of the middle cerebral artery, particularly in the right hemisphere. However, attentional effects of more posterior lesions are less clear. The aim of this study was to characterize visual processing speed...... and apprehension span following posterior cerebral artery (PCA) stroke. We also relate these attentional parameters to visual word recognition, as previous studies have suggested that reduced visual speed and span may explain pure alexia. Methods: Nine patients with MR-verified focal lesions in the PCA......-territory (four left PCA; four right PCA; one bilateral, all >1 year post stroke) were compared to 25 controls using single case statistics. Visual attention was characterized by a whole report paradigm allowing for hemifield-specific speed and span measurements. We also characterized visual field defects...

  15. Managing and understanding risk perception of surface leaks from CCS sites: risk assessment for emerging technologies and low-probability, high-consequence events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augustin, C. M.

    2015-12-01

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as a partial solution to the greenhouse gas emissions problem. As CCS has become mainstream, researchers have raised multiple risk assessment issues typical of emerging technologies. In our research, we examine issues occuring when stored carbon dioxide (CO2) migrates to the near-surface or surface. We believe that both the public misperception and the physical reality of potential environmental, health, and commercial impacts of leak events from such subsurface sites have prevented widespread adoption of CCS. This paper is presented in three parts; the first is an evaluation of the systemic risk of a CCS site CO2 leak and models indicating potential likelihood of a leakage event. As the likelihood of a CCS site leak is stochastic and nonlinear, we present several Bayesian simulations for leak events based on research done with other low-probability, high-consequence gaseous pollutant releases. Though we found a large, acute leak to be exceptionally rare, we demonstrate potential for a localized, chronic leak at a CCS site. To that end, we present the second piece of this paper. Using a combination of spatio-temporal models and reaction-path models, we demonstrate the interplay between leak migrations, material interactions, and atmospheric dispersion for leaks of various duration and volume. These leak-event scenarios have implications for human, environmental, and economic health; they also have a significant impact on implementation support. Public acceptance of CCS is essential for a national low-carbon future, and this is what we address in the final part of this paper. We demonstrate that CCS remains unknown to the general public in the United States. Despite its unknown state, we provide survey findings -analyzed in Slovic and Weber's 2002 framework - that show a high unknown, high dread risk perception of leaks from a CCS site. Secondary findings are a

  16. Communicating Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk, Uncertainty and Expert Confidence: Induced Seismicity of Deep Geothermal Energy and Shale Gas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoblauch, Theresa A K; Stauffacher, Michael; Trutnevyte, Evelina

    2018-04-01

    Subsurface energy activities entail the risk of induced seismicity including low-probability high-consequence (LPHC) events. For designing respective risk communication, the scientific literature lacks empirical evidence of how the public reacts to different written risk communication formats about such LPHC events and to related uncertainty or expert confidence. This study presents findings from an online experiment (N = 590) that empirically tested the public's responses to risk communication about induced seismicity and to different technology frames, namely deep geothermal energy (DGE) and shale gas (between-subject design). Three incrementally different formats of written risk communication were tested: (i) qualitative, (ii) qualitative and quantitative, and (iii) qualitative and quantitative with risk comparison. Respondents found the latter two the easiest to understand, the most exact, and liked them the most. Adding uncertainty and expert confidence statements made the risk communication less clear, less easy to understand and increased concern. Above all, the technology for which risks are communicated and its acceptance mattered strongly: respondents in the shale gas condition found the identical risk communication less trustworthy and more concerning than in the DGE conditions. They also liked the risk communication overall less. For practitioners in DGE or shale gas projects, the study shows that the public would appreciate efforts in describing LPHC risks with numbers and optionally risk comparisons. However, there seems to be a trade-off between aiming for transparency by disclosing uncertainty and limited expert confidence, and thereby decreasing clarity and increasing concern in the view of the public. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. MRI of the fetal posterior fossa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adamsbaum, Catherine; Andre, Christine; Merzoug, Valerie; Ferey, Solene [St Vincent de Paul Hospital, Department of Radiology, Paris Cedex 14 (France); Moutard, Marie Laure [St Vincent de Paul Hospital, Department of Neuropaediatrics, Paris (France); Quere, Marie Pierre [CHU, Department of Radiology, Nantes (France); Lewin, Fanny [St Vincent de Paul Hospital, Maternity Department, Paris (France); Fallet-Bianco, Catherine [Ste Anne Hospital, Department of Neuropathology, Paris (France)

    2005-02-01

    MRI is a useful tool to complement US for imaging of the fetal posterior fossa (PF). In France, the discovery of a PF malformation in the fetus frequently leads to termination of pregnancy (80% in a personal series). However, despite improved accuracy in the diagnosis of PF abnormalities, prognosis remains uncertain. The first objective of this review is to document the normal MRI landmarks of the developing fetal PF. Because of their thinness, the visibility of the cerebellar fissures is dramatically delayed on MRI compared to macroscopic data. An important landmark is identification of the primary fissure of the vermis, normally seen at around 25-26 weeks' gestation (WG) on the sagittal slice, separating the larger posterior lobe from the anterior lobe (volume ratio around 2:1). The prepyramidal and secondary fissures are usually only identifiable after 32 WG and the hemispheric fissures are difficult to see until the end of pregnancy. Considering the signal changes, high signal on T2-weighted (T2-W) sequences is seen from 25 WG in the posterior part of the brain stem (tegmentum and ascending sensory tracts) related to myelination. The low signal intensities seen within the cerebellum on T2-W images correspond to high cellularity of grey matter (deep nuclei), as there is no myelination within the white matter before 38 WG. The second objective is to highlight the signs highly predictive of a poor neurological prognosis. Lack of pontine curvature or vermian agenesis without a PF cyst (small volume of PF) is greatly associated with poor neurological status. The third objective is to propose a diagnostic strategy in difficult cases where prognosis is important, e.g. the Dandy Walker continuum. (orig.)

  18. MRI of the fetal posterior fossa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adamsbaum, Catherine; Andre, Christine; Merzoug, Valerie; Ferey, Solene; Moutard, Marie Laure; Quere, Marie Pierre; Lewin, Fanny; Fallet-Bianco, Catherine

    2005-01-01

    MRI is a useful tool to complement US for imaging of the fetal posterior fossa (PF). In France, the discovery of a PF malformation in the fetus frequently leads to termination of pregnancy (80% in a personal series). However, despite improved accuracy in the diagnosis of PF abnormalities, prognosis remains uncertain. The first objective of this review is to document the normal MRI landmarks of the developing fetal PF. Because of their thinness, the visibility of the cerebellar fissures is dramatically delayed on MRI compared to macroscopic data. An important landmark is identification of the primary fissure of the vermis, normally seen at around 25-26 weeks' gestation (WG) on the sagittal slice, separating the larger posterior lobe from the anterior lobe (volume ratio around 2:1). The prepyramidal and secondary fissures are usually only identifiable after 32 WG and the hemispheric fissures are difficult to see until the end of pregnancy. Considering the signal changes, high signal on T2-weighted (T2-W) sequences is seen from 25 WG in the posterior part of the brain stem (tegmentum and ascending sensory tracts) related to myelination. The low signal intensities seen within the cerebellum on T2-W images correspond to high cellularity of grey matter (deep nuclei), as there is no myelination within the white matter before 38 WG. The second objective is to highlight the signs highly predictive of a poor neurological prognosis. Lack of pontine curvature or vermian agenesis without a PF cyst (small volume of PF) is greatly associated with poor neurological status. The third objective is to propose a diagnostic strategy in difficult cases where prognosis is important, e.g. the Dandy Walker continuum. (orig.)

  19. Reversible posterior leucoencephalopathy syndrome associated with bone marrow transplantation Leucoencefalopatia posterior reversível associada a transplante de medula óssea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hélio A.G. Teive

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available Reversible posterior leucoencephalopathy syndrome (RPLS has previously been described in patients who have renal insufficiency, eclampsia, hypertensive encephalopathy and patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy. The mechanism by which immunosuppressive agents can cause this syndrome is not clear, but it is probably related with cytotoxic effects of these agents on the vascular endothelium. We report eight patients who received cyclosporine A (CSA after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation or as treatment for severe aplastic anemia (SSA who developed posterior leucoencephalopathy. The most common signs and symptoms were seizures and headache. Neurological dysfunction occurred preceded by or concomitant with high blood pressure and some degree of acute renal failure in six patients. Computerized tomography studies showed low-density white matter lesions involving the posterior areas of cerebral hemispheres. Symptoms and neuroimaging abnormalities were reversible and improvement occurred in all patients when given lower doses of CSA or when the drug was withdrawn. RPLS may be considered an expression of CSA neurotoxicity.A síndrome de leucoencefalopatia posterior reversível (SLPR tem sido descrita em pacientes com insuficiência renal, eclâmpsia, encefalopatia hipertensiva e em pacientes que recebem terapia imunossupressora. O mecanismo pelo qual os agentes imunossupressores podem causar a síndrome ainda não são conhecidos, porém estão provavelmente relacionados aos efeitos citotóxicos destes agentes no endotélio vascular. Relatamos oito pacientes que receberam ciclosporina A (CSA após transplante de medula óssea alogênico ou para tratamento de anemia aplástica severa e que desenvolveram a SLPR. Os sinais e sintomas mais comuns foram convulsões e cefaléia. A disfunção neurológica ocorreu simultaneamente ou precedida por elevação da pressão arterial sistêmica e disfunção renal aguda em seis pacientes. O exame de

  20. Classification of posterior vitreous detachment

    OpenAIRE

    Kakehashi, Akihiro; Takezawa, Mikiko; Akiba, Jun

    2013-01-01

    Akihiro Kakehashi,1 Mikiko Takezawa,1 Jun Akiba21Department of Ophthalmology, Jichi Medical University, Saitama Medical Center, Saitama, 2Kanjodori Eye Clinic, Asahikawa, JapanAbstract: Diagnosing a posterior vitreous detachment (PVD) is important for predicting the prognosis and determining the indication for vitreoretinal surgery in many vitreoretinal diseases. This article presents both classifications of a PVD by slit-lamp biomicroscopy and of a shallow PVD by optical coherence tomography...

  1. Usefulness of high-resolution 3D multifusion medical imaging for preoperative planning in patients with posterior fossa hemangioblastoma: technical note.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshino, Masanori; Nakatomi, Hirofumi; Kin, Taichi; Saito, Toki; Shono, Naoyuki; Nomura, Seiji; Nakagawa, Daichi; Takayanagi, Shunsaku; Imai, Hideaki; Oyama, Hiroshi; Saito, Nobuhito

    2017-07-01

    Successful resection of hemangioblastoma depends on preoperative assessment of the precise locations of feeding arteries and draining veins. Simultaneous 3D visualization of feeding arteries, draining veins, and surrounding structures is needed. The present study evaluated the usefulness of high-resolution 3D multifusion medical imaging (hr-3DMMI) for preoperative planning of hemangioblastoma. The hr-3DMMI combined MRI, MR angiography, thin-slice CT, and 3D rotated angiography. Surface rendering was mainly used for the creation of hr-3DMMI using multiple thresholds to create 3D models, and processing took approximately 3-5 hours. This hr-3DMMI technique was used in 5 patients for preoperative planning and the imaging findings were compared with the operative findings. Hr-3DMMI could simulate the whole 3D tumor as a unique sphere and show the precise penetration points of both feeding arteries and draining veins with the same spatial relationships as the original tumor. All feeding arteries and draining veins were found intraoperatively at the same position as estimated preoperatively, and were occluded as planned preoperatively. This hr-3DMMI technique could demonstrate the precise locations of feeding arteries and draining veins preoperatively and estimate the appropriate route for resection of the tumor. Hr-3DMMI is expected to be a very useful support tool for surgery of hemangioblastoma.

  2. VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.

  3. The perception of probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

    2014-01-01

    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryan eCort

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.

  5. Irreversibility and conditional probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    The mathematical entropy - unlike physical entropy - is simply a measure of uniformity for probability distributions in general. So understood, conditional entropies have the same logical structure as conditional probabilities. If, as is sometimes supposed, conditional probabilities are time-reversible, then so are conditional entropies and, paradoxically, both then share this symmetry with physical equations of motion. The paradox is, of course that probabilities yield a direction to time both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, while the equations of motion do not. The supposed time-reversibility of both conditionals seems also to involve a form of retrocausality that is related to, but possibly not the same as, that described by Costa de Beaurgard. The retrocausality is paradoxically at odds with the generally presumed irreversibility of the quantum mechanical measurement process. Further paradox emerges if the supposed time-reversibility of the conditionals is linked with the idea that the thermodynamic entropy is the same thing as 'missing information' since this confounds the thermodynamic and mathematical entropies. However, it is shown that irreversibility is a formal consequence of conditional entropies and, hence, of conditional probabilities also. 8 refs. (Author)

  6. The pleasures of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Isaac, Richard

    1995-01-01

    The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

  7. Transformation of Bayesian posterior distribution into a basic analytical distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan Cizelj, R.; Vrbanic, I.

    2002-01-01

    Bayesian estimation is well-known approach that is widely used in Probabilistic Safety Analyses for the estimation of input model reliability parameters, such as component failure rates or probabilities of failure upon demand. In this approach, a prior distribution, which contains some generic knowledge about a parameter is combined with likelihood function, which contains plant-specific data about the parameter. Depending on the type of prior distribution, the resulting posterior distribution can be estimated numerically or analytically. In many instances only a numerical Bayesian integration can be performed. In such a case the posterior is provided in the form of tabular discrete distribution. On the other hand, it is much more convenient to have a parameter's uncertainty distribution that is to be input into a PSA model to be provided in the form of some basic analytical probability distribution, such as lognormal, gamma or beta distribution. One reason is that this enables much more convenient propagation of parameters' uncertainties through the model up to the so-called top events, such as plant system unavailability or core damage frequency. Additionally, software tools used to run PSA models often require that parameter's uncertainty distribution is defined in the form of one among the several allowed basic types of distributions. In such a case the posterior distribution that came as a product of Bayesian estimation needs to be transformed into an appropriate basic analytical form. In this paper, some approaches on transformation of posterior distribution to a basic probability distribution are proposed and discussed. They are illustrated by an example from NPP Krsko PSA model.(author)

  8. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  9. Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Melucci, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

  10. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

  11. Probability and stochastic modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Rotar, Vladimir I

    2012-01-01

    Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...

  12. Collision Probability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1998-01-01

    It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

  13. High probability of avian influenza virus (H7N7) transmission from poultry to humans active in disease control on infected farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.E.H. Bos (Marian); D.E. te Beest (Dennis); M. van Boven (Michiel); M.R.D.R.B. van Holle; A. Meijer (Adam); A. Bosman (Arnold); Y.M. Mulder (Yonne); M.P.G. Koopmans D.V.M. (Marion); A. Stegeman (Arjan)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractAn epizootic of avian influenza (H7N7) caused a large number of human infections in The Netherlands in 2003. We used data from this epizootic to estimate infection probabilities for persons involved in disease control on infected farms. Analyses were based on databases containing

  14. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

    2014-01-01

    either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments...... that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

  15. Classic Problems of Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gorroochurn, Prakash

    2012-01-01

    "A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin

  16. An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals)

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2012-01-01

    This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axioma

  17. Counterexamples in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Stoyanov, Jordan M

    2013-01-01

    While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.

  18. Epistemology and Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Plotnitsky, Arkady

    2010-01-01

    Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general

  19. Transition probabilities for atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Y.K.

    1980-01-01

    Current status of advanced theoretical methods for transition probabilities for atoms and ions is discussed. An experiment on the f values of the resonance transitions of the Kr and Xe isoelectronic sequences is suggested as a test for the theoretical methods

  20. Posterior consistency for Bayesian inverse problems through stability and regression results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vollmer, Sebastian J

    2013-01-01

    In the Bayesian approach, the a priori knowledge about the input of a mathematical model is described via a probability measure. The joint distribution of the unknown input and the data is then conditioned, using Bayes’ formula, giving rise to the posterior distribution on the unknown input. In this setting we prove posterior consistency for nonlinear inverse problems: a sequence of data is considered, with diminishing fluctuations around a single truth and it is then of interest to show that the resulting sequence of posterior measures arising from this sequence of data concentrates around the truth used to generate the data. Posterior consistency justifies the use of the Bayesian approach very much in the same way as error bounds and convergence results for regularization techniques do. As a guiding example, we consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the diffusion coefficient from noisy observations of the solution to an elliptic PDE in divergence form. This problem is approached by splitting the forward operator into the underlying continuum model and a simpler observation operator based on the output of the model. In general, these splittings allow us to conclude posterior consistency provided a deterministic stability result for the underlying inverse problem and a posterior consistency result for the Bayesian regression problem with the push-forward prior. Moreover, we prove posterior consistency for the Bayesian regression problem based on the regularity, the tail behaviour and the small ball probabilities of the prior. (paper)

  1. Hematomas na fossa craniana posterior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mário S. Cademartori

    1969-09-01

    Full Text Available São relatados 6 casos de hematomas sub-tentorias (um de hematoma subdural crônico, quatro de hematomas intra-cerebelares, um de hematoma extra-dural. Salientando a pequena freqüência dos hematomas da fossa craniana posterior, o autor mostra a necessidade de vários exames complementares para o diagnóstico exato, indispensável para a aplicação de terapêutica cirúrgica adequada.

  2. Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

  3. Huge interparietal posterior fontanel meningohydroencephalocele

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Félix Companioni Rosildo

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Congenital encephalocele is a neural tube defect characterized by a sac-like protrusion of the brain, meninges, and other intracranial structures through the skull, which is caused by an embryonic development abnormality. The most common location is at the occipital bone, and its incidence varies according to different world regions. We report a case of an 1-month and 7-day-old male child with a huge interparietal-posterior fontanel meningohydroencephalocele, a rare occurrence. Physical examination and volumetric computed tomography were diagnostic. The encephalocele was surgically resected. Intradural and extradural approaches were performed; the bone defect was not primarily closed. Two days after surgery, the patient developed hydrocephaly requiring ventriculoperitoneal shunting. The surgical treatment of the meningohydroencephalocele of the interparietal-posterior fontanel may be accompanied by technical challenges and followed by complications due to the presence of large blood vessels under the overlying skin. In these cases, huge sacs herniate through large bone defects including meninges, brain, and blood vessels. The latter present communication with the superior sagittal sinus and ventricular system. A favorable surgical outcome generally follows an accurate strategy taking into account individual features of the lesion.

  4. Contributions to quantum probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a finite set can occur as the outcome

  5. Bayesian Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  6. Contributions to quantum probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-06-25

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a

  7. Waste Package Misload Probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knudsen, J.K.

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a

  8. Probability theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Hsu, Elton P

    1999-01-01

    This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.

  9. Paradoxes in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Eckhardt, William

    2013-01-01

    Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory.  Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies.  Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.

  10. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  11. Model uncertainty and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

  12. Retrocausality and conditional probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Costa de Beauregard has proposed that physical causality be identified with conditional probability. The proposal is shown to be vulnerable on two accounts. The first, though mathematically trivial, seems to be decisive so far as the current formulation of the proposal is concerned. The second lies in a physical inconsistency which seems to have its source in a Copenhagenlike disavowal of realism in quantum mechanics. 6 refs. (Author)

  13. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  14. Spatial probability aids visual stimulus discrimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Druker

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We investigated whether the statistical predictability of a target's location would influence how quickly and accurately it was classified. Recent results have suggested that spatial probability can be a cue for the allocation of attention in visual search. One explanation for probability cuing is spatial repetition priming. In our two experiments we used probability distributions that were continuous across the display rather than relying on a few arbitrary screen locations. This produced fewer spatial repeats and allowed us to dissociate the effect of a high probability location from that of short-term spatial repetition. The task required participants to quickly judge the color of a single dot presented on a computer screen. In Experiment 1, targets were more probable in an off-center hotspot of high probability that gradually declined to a background rate. Targets garnered faster responses if they were near earlier target locations (priming and if they were near the high probability hotspot (probability cuing. In Experiment 2, target locations were chosen on three concentric circles around fixation. One circle contained 80% of targets. The value of this ring distribution is that it allowed for a spatially restricted high probability zone in which sequentially repeated trials were not likely to be physically close. Participant performance was sensitive to the high-probability circle in addition to the expected effects of eccentricity and the distance to recent targets. These two experiments suggest that inhomogeneities in spatial probability can be learned and used by participants on-line and without prompting as an aid for visual stimulus discrimination and that spatial repetition priming is not a sufficient explanation for this effect. Future models of attention should consider explicitly incorporating the probabilities of targets locations and features.

  15. A late neurological complication following posterior correction surgery of severe cervical kyphosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hojo, Yoshihiro; Ito, Manabu; Abumi, Kuniyoshi; Kotani, Yoshihisa; Sudo, Hideki; Takahata, Masahiko; Minami, Akio

    2011-06-01

    Though a possible cause of late neurological deficits after posterior cervical reconstruction surgery was reported to be an iatrogenic foraminal stenosis caused not by implant malposition but probably by posterior shift of the lateral mass induced by tightening screws and plates, its clinical features and pathomechanisms remain unclear. The aim of this retrospective clinical review was to investigate the clinical features of these neurological complications and to analyze the pathomechanisms by reviewing pre- and post-operative imaging studies. Among 227 patients who underwent cervical stabilization using cervical pedicle screws (CPSs), six patients who underwent correction of cervical kyphosis showed postoperative late neurological complications without any malposition of CPS (ND group). The clinical courses of the patients with deficits were reviewed from the medical records. Radiographic assessment of the sagittal alignment was conducted using lateral radiographs. The diameter of the neural foramen was measured on preoperative CT images. These results were compared with the other 14 patients who underwent correction of cervical kyphosis without late postoperative neurological complications (non-ND group). The six patients in the ND group showed no deficits in the immediate postoperative periods, but unilateral muscle weakness of the deltoid and biceps brachii occurred at 2.8 days postoperatively on average. Preoperative sagittal alignment of fusion area showed significant kyphosis in the ND group. The average of kyphosis correction in the ND was 17.6° per fused segment (range 9.7°-35.0°), and 4.5° (range 1.3°-10.0°) in the non-ND group. A statistically significant difference was observed in the degree of preoperative kyphosis and the correction angles at C4-5 between the two groups. The diameter of the C4-5 foramen on the side of deficits was significantly smaller than that of the opposite side in the ND group. Late postoperative neurological

  16. Probability mapping of contaminants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); McGraw, M.A. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Istok, J.D. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Sigda, J.M. [New Mexico Inst. of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM (United States)

    1994-04-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds).

  17. Probability mapping of contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G.; McGraw, M.A.; Istok, J.D.; Sigda, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds)

  18. Probability of causation approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jose, D.E.

    1988-01-01

    Probability of causation (PC) is sometimes viewed as a great improvement by those persons who are not happy with the present rulings of courts in radiation cases. The author does not share that hope and expects that PC will not play a significant role in these issues for at least the next decade. If it is ever adopted in a legislative compensation scheme, it will be used in a way that is unlikely to please most scientists. Consequently, PC is a false hope for radiation scientists, and its best contribution may well lie in some of the spin-off effects, such as an influence on medical practice

  19. Generalized Probability Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Souto Martinez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.

  20. Evaluation of nuclear power plant component failure probability and core damage probability using simplified PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Yoshio

    2000-01-01

    It is anticipated that the change of frequency of surveillance tests, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of safety related components may cause the change of component failure probability and result in the change of core damage probability. It is also anticipated that the change is different depending on the initiating event frequency or the component types. This study assessed the change of core damage probability using simplified PSA model capable of calculating core damage probability in a short time period, which is developed by the US NRC to process accident sequence precursors, when various component's failure probability is changed between 0 and 1, or Japanese or American initiating event frequency data are used. As a result of the analysis, (1) It was clarified that frequency of surveillance test, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of motor driven pumps (high pressure injection pumps, residual heat removal pumps, auxiliary feedwater pumps) should be carefully changed, since the core damage probability's change is large, when the base failure probability changes toward increasing direction. (2) Core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance test frequency change, since the core damage probability change is small, when motor operated valves and turbine driven auxiliary feed water pump failure probability changes around one figure. (3) Core damage probability change is small, when Japanese failure probability data are applied to emergency diesel generator, even if failure probability changes one figure from the base value. On the other hand, when American failure probability data is applied, core damage probability increase is large, even if failure probability changes toward increasing direction. Therefore, when Japanese failure probability data is applied, core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance tests frequency change etc. (author)

  1. Pippi — Painless parsing, post-processing and plotting of posterior and likelihood samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Pat

    2012-11-01

    Interpreting samples from likelihood or posterior probability density functions is rarely as straightforward as it seems it should be. Producing publication-quality graphics of these distributions is often similarly painful. In this short note I describe pippi, a simple, publicly available package for parsing and post-processing such samples, as well as generating high-quality PDF graphics of the results. Pippi is easily and extensively configurable and customisable, both in its options for parsing and post-processing samples, and in the visual aspects of the figures it produces. I illustrate some of these using an existing supersymmetric global fit, performed in the context of a gamma-ray search for dark matter. Pippi can be downloaded and followed at http://github.com/patscott/pippi.

  2. Bilateral Posterior Native Hip Dislocations after Fall from Standing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Xiao

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available We present a case of bilateral posterior native hip dislocations after a fall from standing. This exceedingly rare diagnosis is classically associated with younger patients whose bones are strong enough to dislocate rather than fracture in the setting of a high-momentum collision. We present an unusual case of an 88-year-old male with native hips who sustained a low-energy collision after falling from standing and was found to have bilateral posterior hip dislocations without associated pelvis or femur fractures.

  3. Striatal activity is modulated by target probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hon, Nicholas

    2017-06-14

    Target probability has well-known neural effects. In the brain, target probability is known to affect frontal activity, with lower probability targets producing more prefrontal activation than those that occur with higher probability. Although the effect of target probability on cortical activity is well specified, its effect on subcortical structures such as the striatum is less well understood. Here, I examined this issue and found that the striatum was highly responsive to target probability. This is consistent with its hypothesized role in the gating of salient information into higher-order task representations. The current data are interpreted in light of that fact that different components of the striatum are sensitive to different types of task-relevant information.

  4. A comparison of laparoscopic-assisted (LAARP) and posterior ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A comparison of laparoscopic-assisted (LAARP) and posterior sagittal (PSARP) anorectoplasty in the outcome of intermediate and high anorectal malformations. ... There were slightly more complications in the LAARP group; intra-operative injury to the vas deferens and urethra occurred once each. Post-operatively, 2 ...

  5. Estimation of Posterior Probabilities Using Multivariate Smoothing Splines and Generalized Cross-Validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-09-01

    Ciencia y Tecnologia -Mexico, by ONR under Contract No. N00014-77-C-0675, and by ARO under Contract No. DAAG29-80-K-0042. LUJ THE VIE~W, rTIJ. ’~v ’’~c...Department of Statis- tics. For financial support I thank the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia - Mexico, and the Department of Statistics of the...from the context of the expression what they should be. The ia element (covariate) of an observations y will be denoted by ",(4) and all vectors will be

  6. Probable maximum flood control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeGabriele, C.E.; Wu, C.L.

    1991-11-01

    This study proposes preliminary design concepts to protect the waste-handling facilities and all shaft and ramp entries to the underground from the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the current design configuration for the proposed Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation (NNWSI) repository protection provisions were furnished by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USSR) or developed from USSR data. Proposed flood protection provisions include site grading, drainage channels, and diversion dikes. Figures are provided to show these proposed flood protection provisions at each area investigated. These areas are the central surface facilities (including the waste-handling building and waste treatment building), tuff ramp portal, waste ramp portal, men-and-materials shaft, emplacement exhaust shaft, and exploratory shafts facility

  7. Cisternography of the posterior fossa with metrizamide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobayashi, N.; Saito, Y.; Miyashita, T.; Tajika, Y.

    1981-12-01

    Nine patients underwent metrizamide cisternography of the posterior fossa. Excellent opacification of the fourth ventricle resulted when the patient's head was suitably positioned and the contrast material was introduced via a C1-2 puncture. With this technique, a benign aqueductal stenosis can be readily identified and the posterior fossa and fourth ventricle can be studied easily.

  8. Selective posterior lumbosacral rhizotomy for the management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    tion in 95% of cases. The majority showed ... selective posterior rhizotomy technique whereby the cauda equina ... assessed pre- and postoperatively by means of clinical examination ... were attending cerebral palsy schools and receiving spe- cialised ... root sections on cats demonstrated clearly that posterior root section ...

  9. Evaluation of the outcomes after posterior urethroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberman, Daniel; Pagliara, Travis J; Pisansky, Andrew; Elliott, Sean P

    2015-03-01

    Posterior urethral injury is a clinically significant complication of pelvic fractures. The management is complicated by the associated organ injuries, distortion of the pelvic anatomy and the ensuing fibrosis that occurs with urethral injury. We report a review of the outcomes after posterior urethroplasty in the context of pelvic fracture urethral injury.

  10. Data analysis in emission tomography using emission-count posteriors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sitek, Arkadiusz

    2012-01-01

    A novel approach to the analysis of emission tomography data using the posterior probability of the number of emissions per voxel (emission count) conditioned on acquired tomographic data is explored. The posterior is derived from the prior and the Poisson likelihood of the emission-count data by marginalizing voxel activities. Based on emission-count posteriors, examples of Bayesian analysis including estimation and classification tasks in emission tomography are provided. The application of the method to computer simulations of 2D tomography is demonstrated. In particular, the minimum-mean-square-error point estimator of the emission count is demonstrated. The process of finding this estimator can be considered as a tomographic image reconstruction technique since the estimates of the number of emissions per voxel divided by voxel sensitivities and acquisition time are the estimates of the voxel activities. As an example of a classification task, a hypothesis stating that some region of interest (ROI) emitted at least or at most r-times the number of events in some other ROI is tested. The ROIs are specified by the user. The analysis described in this work provides new quantitative statistical measures that can be used in decision making in diagnostic imaging using emission tomography. (paper)

  11. Data analysis in emission tomography using emission-count posteriors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitek, Arkadiusz

    2012-11-01

    A novel approach to the analysis of emission tomography data using the posterior probability of the number of emissions per voxel (emission count) conditioned on acquired tomographic data is explored. The posterior is derived from the prior and the Poisson likelihood of the emission-count data by marginalizing voxel activities. Based on emission-count posteriors, examples of Bayesian analysis including estimation and classification tasks in emission tomography are provided. The application of the method to computer simulations of 2D tomography is demonstrated. In particular, the minimum-mean-square-error point estimator of the emission count is demonstrated. The process of finding this estimator can be considered as a tomographic image reconstruction technique since the estimates of the number of emissions per voxel divided by voxel sensitivities and acquisition time are the estimates of the voxel activities. As an example of a classification task, a hypothesis stating that some region of interest (ROI) emitted at least or at most r-times the number of events in some other ROI is tested. The ROIs are specified by the user. The analysis described in this work provides new quantitative statistical measures that can be used in decision making in diagnostic imaging using emission tomography.

  12. One-stage posterior approaches for treatment of thoracic spinal infection: Transforaminal and costotransversectomy, compared with anterior approach with posterior instrumentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Fu-Cheng; Tsai, Tsung-Ting; Niu, Chi-Chien; Lai, Po-Liang; Chen, Lih-Huei; Chen, Wen-Jer

    2017-10-01

    Treating thoracic infective spondylodiscitis with anterior surgical approaches carry a relatively high risk of perioperative and postoperative complications. Posterior approaches have been reported to result in lower complication rates than anterior procedures, but more evidence is needed to demonstrate the safety and efficacy of 1-stage posterior approaches for treating infectious thoracic spondylodiscitis.Preoperative and postoperative clinical data, of 18 patients who underwent 2 types of 1-stage posterior procedures, costotransversectomy and transforaminal thoracic interbody debridement and fusion and 7 patients who underwent anterior debridement and reconstruction with posterior instrumentation, were retrospectively assessed.The clinical outcomes of patients treated with 1-stage posterior approaches were generally good, with good infection control, back pain relief, kyphotic angle correction, and either partial or solid union for fusion status. Furthermore, they achieved shorter surgical time, fewer postoperative complications, and shorter hospital stay than the patients underwent anterior debridement with posterior instrumentation.The results suggested that treating thoracic spondylodiscitis with a single-stage posterior approach might prevent postoperative complications and avoid respiratory problems associated with anterior approaches. Single-stage posterior approaches would be recommended for thoracic spine infection, especially for patients with medical comorbidities.

  13. First estimates of the probability of survival in a small-bodied, high-elevation frog (Boreal Chorus Frog, Pseudacris maculata), or how historical data can be useful

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muths, Erin L.; Scherer, R. D.; Amburgey, S. M.; Matthews, T.; Spencer, A. W.; Corn, P.S.

    2016-01-01

    In an era of shrinking budgets yet increasing demands for conservation, the value of existing (i.e., historical) data are elevated. Lengthy time series on common, or previously common, species are particularly valuable and may be available only through the use of historical information. We provide first estimates of the probability of survival and longevity (0.67–0.79 and 5–7 years, respectively) for a subalpine population of a small-bodied, ostensibly common amphibian, the Boreal Chorus Frog (Pseudacris maculata (Agassiz, 1850)), using historical data and contemporary, hypothesis-driven information–theoretic analyses. We also test a priori hypotheses about the effects of color morph (as suggested by early reports) and of drought (as suggested by recent climate predictions) on survival. Using robust mark–recapture models, we find some support for early hypotheses regarding the effect of color on survival, but we find no effect of drought. The congruence between early findings and our analyses highlights the usefulness of historical information in providing raw data for contemporary analyses and context for conservation and management decisions.

  14. Probability concepts in quality risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claycamp, H Gregg

    2012-01-01

    Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

  15. Measurement of Posterior Tibial Slope Using Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, Elham; Norouzian, Mohsen; Birjandinejad, Ali; Zandi, Reza; Makhmalbaf, Hadi

    2017-11-01

    Posterior tibial slope (PTS) is an important factor in the knee joint biomechanics and one of the bone features, which affects knee joint stability. Posterior tibial slope has impact on flexion gap, knee joint stability and posterior femoral rollback that are related to wide range of knee motion. During high tibial osteotomy and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) surgery, proper retaining the mechanical and anatomical axis is important. The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of posterior tibial slope in medial and lateral compartments of tibial plateau and to assess the relationship among the slope with age, gender and other variables of tibial plateau surface. This descriptive study was conducted on 132 healthy knees (80 males and 52 females) with a mean age of 38.26±11.45 (20-60 years) at Imam Reza hospital in Mashhad, Iran. All patients, selected and enrolled for MRI in this study, were admitted for knee pain with uncertain clinical history. According to initial physical knee examinations the study subjects were reported healthy. The mean posterior tibial slope was 7.78± 2.48 degrees in the medial compartment and 6.85± 2.24 degrees in lateral compartment. No significant correlation was found between age and gender with posterior tibial slope ( P ≥0.05), but there was significant relationship among PTS with mediolateral width, plateau area and medial plateau. Comparison of different studies revealed that the PTS value in our study is different from other communities, which can be associated with genetic and racial factors. The results of our study are useful to PTS reconstruction in surgeries.

  16. Probability and rational choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Botting

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1808-1711.2014v18n1p1 In this paper I will discuss the rationality of reasoning about the future. There are two things that we might like to know about the future: which hypotheses are true and what will happen next. To put it in philosophical language, I aim to show that there are methods by which inferring to a generalization (selecting a hypothesis and inferring to the next instance (singular predictive inference can be shown to be normative and the method itself shown to be rational, where this is due in part to being based on evidence (although not in the same way and in part on a prior rational choice. I will also argue that these two inferences have been confused, being distinct not only conceptually (as nobody disputes but also in their results (the value given to the probability of the hypothesis being not in general that given to the next instance and that methods that are adequate for one are not by themselves adequate for the other. A number of debates over method founder on this confusion and do not show what the debaters think they show.

  17. COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.

    1979-01-01

    1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions

  18. Posterior labral injury in contact athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mair, S D; Zarzour, R H; Speer, K P

    1998-01-01

    Nine athletes (seven football offensive linemen, one defensive lineman, and one lacrosse player) were found at arthroscopy to have posterior labral detachment from the glenoid. In our series, this lesion is specific to contact athletes who engage their opponents with arms in front of the body. All patients had pain with bench pressing and while participating in their sport, diminishing their ability to play effectively. Conservative measures were ineffective in relieving their symptoms. Examination under anesthesia revealed symmetric glenohumeral translation bilaterally, without evidence of posterior instability. Treatment consisted of glenoid rim abradement and posterior labral repair with a bioabsorbable tack. All patients returned to complete at least one full season of contact sports and weightlifting without pain (minimum follow-up, > or = 2 years). Although many injuries leading to subluxation of the glenohumeral joint occur when an unanticipated force is applied, contact athletes ready their shoulder muscles in anticipation of impact with opponents. This leads to a compressive force at the glenohumeral joint. We hypothesize that, in combination with a posteriorly directed force at impact, the resultant vector is a shearing force to the posterior labrum and articular surface. Repeated exposure leads to posterior labral detachment without capsular injury. Posterior labral reattachment provides consistently good results, allowing the athlete to return to competition.

  19. Treatment implications of posterior fossa ependymoma subgroups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramaswamy, Vijay; Taylor, Michael D

    2016-11-15

    Posterior fossa ependymoma comprises two distinct molecular entities, ependymoma_posterior fossa A (EPN_PFA) and ependymoma_posterior fossa B (EPN_PFB), with differentiable gene expression profiles. As yet, the response of the two entities to treatment is unclear. To determine the relationship between the two molecular subgroups of posterior fossa ependymoma and treatment, we studied a cohort of 820 patients with molecularly profiled, clinically annotated posterior fossa ependymomas. We found that the strongest predictor of poor outcome in patients with posterior fossa ependymoma across the entire age spectrum was molecular subgroup EPN_PFA, which was recently reported in the paper entitled "Therapeutic impact of cytoreductive surgery and irradiation of posterior fossa ependymoma in the molecular era: a retrospective multicohort analysis" in the Journal of Clinical Oncology. Patients with incompletely resected EPN_PFA tumors had a very poor outcome despite receiving adjuvant radiation therapy, whereas a substantial proportion of patients with EPN_PFB tumors can be cured with surgery alone.

  20. Annular and central heavy pigment deposition on the posterior lens capsule in the pigment dispersion syndrome: pigment deposition on the posterior lens capsule in the pigment dispersion syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turgut, Burak; Türkçüoğlu, Peykan; Deniz, Nurettin; Catak, Onur

    2008-12-01

    To report annular and central heavy pigment deposition on the posterior lens capsule in a case of pigment dispersion syndrome. Case report. A 36-year-old female with bilateral pigment dispersion syndrome presented with progressive decrease in visual acuity in the right eye over the past 1-2 years. Clinical examination revealed the typical findings of pigment dispersion syndrome including bilateral Krunkenberg spindles, iris transillumination defects, and dense trabecular meshwork pigmentation. Remarkably, annular and central dense pigmentation of the posterior lens capsule was noted in the right eye. Annular pigment deposition on the posterior lens capsule may be a rare finding associated with pigment dispersion syndrome. Such a finding suggests that there may be aqueous flow into the retrolental space in some patients with this condition. The way of central pigmentation is the entrance of aqueous to Berger's space. In our case, it is probable that spontaneous detachment of the anterior hyaloid membrane aided this entrance.

  1. A Tale of Two Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

  2. A game with rules in the making - how the high probability of waiting games in nanomedicine is being mitigated through distributed regulation and responsible innovation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D'Silva, J.J.F.; Robinson, D.K.R.; Shelley Egan, Clare

    2012-01-01

    The potential benefits of nanotechnologies in healthcare are widely expected to be enormous and a considerable amount of investment is already pouring into public research in this area. These high expectations of benefits are coupled with uncertainty surrounding the potential risks of the

  3. Are polynuclear superhalogens without halogen atoms probable? A high-level ab initio case study on triple-bridged binuclear anions with cyanide ligands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Bing; Li, Teng; Li, Jin-Feng; Yu, Yang; Li, Jian-Li; Wen, Zhen-Yi; Jiang, Zhen-Yi

    2014-03-01

    The first theoretical exploration of superhalogen properties of polynuclear structures based on pseudohalogen ligand is reported here via a case study on eight triply-bridged [Mg2(CN)5]- clusters. From our high-level ab initio results, all these clusters are superhalogens due to their high vertical electron detachment energies (VDE), of which the largest value is 8.67 eV at coupled-cluster single double triple (CCSD(T)) level. Although outer valence Green's function results are consistent with CCSD(T) in most cases, it overestimates the VDEs of three anions dramatically by more than 1 eV. Therefore, the combined usage of several theoretical methods is important for the accuracy of purely theoretical prediction of superhalogen properties of new structures. Spatial distribution of the extra electron of high-VDE anions here indicates two features: remarkable aggregation on bridging CN units and non-negligible distribution on every CN unit. These two features lower the potential and kinetic energies of the extra electron respectively and thus lead to high VDE. Besides superhalogen properties, the structures, relative stabilities and thermodynamic stabilities with respect to detachment of CN-1 were also investigated for these anions. The collection of these results indicates that polynuclear structures based on pseudohalogen ligand are promising candidates for new superhalogens with enhanced properties.

  4. Are polynuclear superhalogens without halogen atoms probable? A high-level ab initio case study on triple-bridged binuclear anions with cyanide ligands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin, Bing; Wen, Zhen-Yi; Li, Teng; Li, Jin-Feng; Yu, Yang; Li, Jian-Li; Jiang, Zhen-Yi

    2014-01-01

    The first theoretical exploration of superhalogen properties of polynuclear structures based on pseudohalogen ligand is reported here via a case study on eight triply-bridged [Mg 2 (CN) 5 ] − clusters. From our high-level ab initio results, all these clusters are superhalogens due to their high vertical electron detachment energies (VDE), of which the largest value is 8.67 eV at coupled-cluster single double triple (CCSD(T)) level. Although outer valence Green's function results are consistent with CCSD(T) in most cases, it overestimates the VDEs of three anions dramatically by more than 1 eV. Therefore, the combined usage of several theoretical methods is important for the accuracy of purely theoretical prediction of superhalogen properties of new structures. Spatial distribution of the extra electron of high-VDE anions here indicates two features: remarkable aggregation on bridging CN units and non-negligible distribution on every CN unit. These two features lower the potential and kinetic energies of the extra electron respectively and thus lead to high VDE. Besides superhalogen properties, the structures, relative stabilities and thermodynamic stabilities with respect to detachment of CN −1 were also investigated for these anions. The collection of these results indicates that polynuclear structures based on pseudohalogen ligand are promising candidates for new superhalogens with enhanced properties

  5. Are polynuclear superhalogens without halogen atoms probable? A high-level ab initio case study on triple-bridged binuclear anions with cyanide ligands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yin, Bing, E-mail: rayinyin@gmail.com; Wen, Zhen-Yi [MOE Key Laboratory of Synthetic and Natural Functional Molecule Chemistry, Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Physico-Inorganic Chemistry, College of Chemistry and Materials Science, Northwest University, Xi' an 710069 (China); Institute of Modern Physics, Northwest University, Xi' an 710069 (China); Li, Teng; Li, Jin-Feng; Yu, Yang; Li, Jian-Li [MOE Key Laboratory of Synthetic and Natural Functional Molecule Chemistry, Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Physico-Inorganic Chemistry, College of Chemistry and Materials Science, Northwest University, Xi' an 710069 (China); Jiang, Zhen-Yi [Institute of Modern Physics, Northwest University, Xi' an 710069 (China)

    2014-03-07

    The first theoretical exploration of superhalogen properties of polynuclear structures based on pseudohalogen ligand is reported here via a case study on eight triply-bridged [Mg{sub 2}(CN){sub 5}]{sup −} clusters. From our high-level ab initio results, all these clusters are superhalogens due to their high vertical electron detachment energies (VDE), of which the largest value is 8.67 eV at coupled-cluster single double triple (CCSD(T)) level. Although outer valence Green's function results are consistent with CCSD(T) in most cases, it overestimates the VDEs of three anions dramatically by more than 1 eV. Therefore, the combined usage of several theoretical methods is important for the accuracy of purely theoretical prediction of superhalogen properties of new structures. Spatial distribution of the extra electron of high-VDE anions here indicates two features: remarkable aggregation on bridging CN units and non-negligible distribution on every CN unit. These two features lower the potential and kinetic energies of the extra electron respectively and thus lead to high VDE. Besides superhalogen properties, the structures, relative stabilities and thermodynamic stabilities with respect to detachment of CN{sup −1} were also investigated for these anions. The collection of these results indicates that polynuclear structures based on pseudohalogen ligand are promising candidates for new superhalogens with enhanced properties.

  6. Introduction to probability with R

    CERN Document Server

    Baclawski, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

  7. A first course in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon

    2014-01-01

    A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.

  8. Lectures on probability and statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yost, G.P.

    1984-09-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another

  9. Posterior lattice degeneration characterized by spectral domain optical coherence tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manjunath, Varsha; Taha, Mohammed; Fujimoto, James G; Duker, Jay S

    2011-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to use high-resolution spectral domain optical coherence tomography in the characterization of retinal and vitreal morphological changes overlying posterior lattice degeneration. A cross-sectional retrospective analysis was performed on 13 eyes of 13 nonconsecutive subjects with posterior lattice degeneration seen at the New England Eye Center, Tufts Medical Center between October 2009 and January 2010. Spectral domain optical coherence tomography images taken through the region of lattice degeneration were qualitatively analyzed. Four characteristic changes of the retina and vitreous were seen in the 13 eyes with lattice degeneration: 1) anterior/posterior U-shaped vitreous traction; 2) retinal breaks; 3) focal retinal thinning; and 4) vitreous membrane formation. The morphologic appearance of vitreous traction and retinal breaks were found to be consistent with previous histologic reports. It is possible to image posterior lattice degeneration in many eyes using spectral domain optical coherence tomography and to visualize the spectrum of retinal and vitreous changes throughout the area of lattice degeneration.

  10. Detection probability of Campylobacter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evers, E.G.; Post, J.; Putirulan, F.F.; Wal, van der F.J.

    2010-01-01

    A rapid presence/absence test for Campylobacter in chicken faeces is being evaluated to support the scheduling of highly contaminated broiler flocks as a measure to reduce public health risks [Nauta, M. J., & Havelaar, A. H. (2008). Risk-based standards for Campylobacter in the broiler meat

  11. Posterior alien hand syndrome: case report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rohde, S.; Weidauer, S.; Lanfermann, H.; Zanella, F.

    2002-01-01

    The alien hand syndrome (AHS) is involuntary uncontrolled movement of an arm with a sense of estrangement from the limb itself. AHS was initially used to describe interhemispheric disconnection phenomena in patients with lesions in the anterior corpus callosum, but it has been found in patients with posterior cerebral lesions without involvement of the corpus callosum, for example parietal infarcts or corticobasal degeneration. The posterior alien hand syndrome is less frequent and presents with nonpurposive behaviour like lifting the arm or writhing fingers. We report an 80-year-old woman with a posterior AHS of the dominant right hand. MRI showed atrophy of the pre- and postcentral gyri without involvement of the corpus callosum. We discuss the aetiology of the posterior AHS and the differences from the anterior varieties. (orig.)

  12. Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome: Some novel ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The third, a thalassaemic child receiving regular blood transfusions, had PRES ... anterior brain instead of the classically described posterior parts of .... 7 months. 3 years. 5 years. 4 years. Gender. Female. Male. Female. Female ... Developed.

  13. Congenital abnormalities of the posterior fossa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosemani, Thangamadhan; Orman, Gunes; Boltshauser, Eugen; Tekes, Aylin; Huisman, Thierry A G M; Poretti, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    The frequency and importance of the evaluation of the posterior fossa have increased significantly over the past 20 years owing to advances in neuroimaging. Nowadays, conventional and advanced neuroimaging techniques allow detailed evaluation of the complex anatomic structures within the posterior fossa. A wide spectrum of congenital abnormalities has been demonstrated, including malformations (anomalies due to an alteration of the primary developmental program caused by a genetic defect) and disruptions (anomalies due to the breakdown of a structure that had a normal developmental potential). Familiarity with the spectrum of congenital posterior fossa anomalies and their well-defined diagnostic criteria is crucial for optimal therapy, an accurate prognosis, and correct genetic counseling. The authors discuss the spectrum of posterior fossa malformations and disruptions, with emphasis on neuroimaging findings (including diagnostic criteria), neurologic presentation, systemic involvement, prognosis, and risk of recurrence. RSNA, 2015

  14. POSTERIOR APPROACH FOR HIP ARTHROPLASTY: A SINGLE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    postulated advantages and disadvantages. Objective: Presentation of a case series of primary and revision arthroplasty utilizing the posterior approach. ... Centre over a period of one year were queried and data extracted and recorded.

  15. Posterior Fossa Tumors and Intellectual Impairment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Gordon Millichap

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of cerebellar damage on intellectual function in 76 children treated surgically for malignant posterior fossa tumor was investigated at the Gustave Roussy Institute, Villejuif, and the Department of Pediatric Neurosurgery, Necker Hospital, Paris, France.

  16. Probability an introduction with statistical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Kinney, John J

    2014-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition""This is a well-written and impressively presented introduction to probability and statistics. The text throughout is highly readable, and the author makes liberal use of graphs and diagrams to clarify the theory.""  - The StatisticianThoroughly updated, Probability: An Introduction with Statistical Applications, Second Edition features a comprehensive exploration of statistical data analysis as an application of probability. The new edition provides an introduction to statistics with accessible coverage of reliability, acceptance sampling, confidence intervals, h

  17. Economic choices reveal probability distortion in macaque monkeys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stauffer, William R; Lak, Armin; Bossaerts, Peter; Schultz, Wolfram

    2015-02-18

    Economic choices are largely determined by two principal elements, reward value (utility) and probability. Although nonlinear utility functions have been acknowledged for centuries, nonlinear probability weighting (probability distortion) was only recently recognized as a ubiquitous aspect of real-world choice behavior. Even when outcome probabilities are known and acknowledged, human decision makers often overweight low probability outcomes and underweight high probability outcomes. Whereas recent studies measured utility functions and their corresponding neural correlates in monkeys, it is not known whether monkeys distort probability in a manner similar to humans. Therefore, we investigated economic choices in macaque monkeys for evidence of probability distortion. We trained two monkeys to predict reward from probabilistic gambles with constant outcome values (0.5 ml or nothing). The probability of winning was conveyed using explicit visual cues (sector stimuli). Choices between the gambles revealed that the monkeys used the explicit probability information to make meaningful decisions. Using these cues, we measured probability distortion from choices between the gambles and safe rewards. Parametric modeling of the choices revealed classic probability weighting functions with inverted-S shape. Therefore, the animals overweighted low probability rewards and underweighted high probability rewards. Empirical investigation of the behavior verified that the choices were best explained by a combination of nonlinear value and nonlinear probability distortion. Together, these results suggest that probability distortion may reflect evolutionarily preserved neuronal processing. Copyright © 2015 Stauffer et al.

  18. Posterior amorphous corneal dystrophy: case report

    OpenAIRE

    Oliveira, Lauro Augusto de [UNIFESP; Vieira, Luiz Antônio [UNIFESP; Freitas, Denise de [UNIFESP; Sousa, Luciene Barbosa de [UNIFESP

    2006-01-01

    O objetivo deste trabalho é alertar o oftalmologista da possibilidade de se deparar com casos raros de distrofias corneanas. Neste caso correlacionamos os achados clínicos da distrofia amorfa posterior com refração, topografia e biomicroscopia ultra-sônica.The purpose of this paper is to warn the ophthalmologist about the possibility of facing rare cases of corneal dystrophies. Clinical findings of a case of posterior amorphous dystrophy were correlated with refraction, topography, and ultras...

  19. Vermian agenesis without posterior fossa cyst

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adamsbaum, C.; Moreau, V.; Bulteau, C.; Burstyn, J.; Lair Milan, F.; Kalifa, G.

    1994-01-01

    We report 11 cases of vermian partial agenesis without posterior fossa cyst or hemispheric abnormalities. Characteristic MR signs were: absence of the posterior lobe, hypoplasia of the anterior lobe, a narrow sagittal cleft separating the hemispheres (''buttocks sign'') and fourth ventricle deformity. The main clinical signs were complex oculomotor dysfunction and developmental delay. None of the patients had respiratory symptoms. Consideration is given to the relationship between Joubert syndrome and this entity as well as to embroyological data. (orig.)

  20. Mature teratoma of the posterior mediastinum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurosaki, Y.; Tanaka, Y.O.; Itai, Y. [Department of Radiology, Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki-ken 305 (Japan)

    1998-02-01

    The vast majority of germ cell tumors in the thorax arise at or near the thymus. We report a case of a 41-year-old man with mature teratoma of the posterior mediastinum. He was asymptomatic and was incidentally found to have a posterior mediastinal mass. Computed tomography was helpful in suggesting a diagnosis of mature teratoma by demonstrating the presence of fat and calcification. The differential diagnosis included neurogenic tumors, liposarcoma, and extramedullary hematopoiesis. (orig.) With 2 figs., 18 refs.

  1. Mature teratoma of the posterior mediastinum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurosaki, Y.; Tanaka, Y.O.; Itai, Y.

    1998-01-01

    The vast majority of germ cell tumors in the thorax arise at or near the thymus. We report a case of a 41-year-old man with mature teratoma of the posterior mediastinum. He was asymptomatic and was incidentally found to have a posterior mediastinal mass. Computed tomography was helpful in suggesting a diagnosis of mature teratoma by demonstrating the presence of fat and calcification. The differential diagnosis included neurogenic tumors, liposarcoma, and extramedullary hematopoiesis. (orig.)

  2. An unusual cause of posterior mediastinal cyst

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahajal Dhooria

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Cystic lesions of the mediastinum may be congenital or acquired. The differential diagnosis depends on their location in the mediastinum. Cysts in the posterior mediastinum are generally developmental cysts and are neurogenic or of foregut origin. We report the case of a 14-year-old boy, who presented with dry cough and progressively increasing breathlessness, and was found to have a cystic lesion in the posterior mediastinum. Fine needle aspiration from the cyst helped make a diagnosis of tuberculosis.

  3. Analytic posteriors for Pearson's correlation coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ly, Alexander; Marsman, Maarten; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2018-02-01

    Pearson's correlation is one of the most common measures of linear dependence. Recently, Bernardo (11th International Workshop on Objective Bayes Methodology, 2015) introduced a flexible class of priors to study this measure in a Bayesian setting. For this large class of priors, we show that the (marginal) posterior for Pearson's correlation coefficient and all of the posterior moments are analytic. Our results are available in the open-source software package JASP.

  4. Analytic posteriors for Pearson's correlation coefficient

    OpenAIRE

    Ly, A.; Marsman, M.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2018-01-01

    Pearson's correlation is one of the most common measures of linear dependence. Recently, Bernardo (11th International Workshop on Objective Bayes Methodology, 2015) introduced a flexible class of priors to study this measure in a Bayesian setting. For this large class of priors, we show that the (marginal) posterior for Pearson's correlation coefficient and all of the posterior moments are analytic. Our results are available in the open‐source software package JASP.

  5. Post-partum posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome

    OpenAIRE

    B. V. Triveni; Salman Mohammed Sheikh; Deepak Shedde

    2014-01-01

    Posterior Reversible Encephalopathy Syndrome (PRES) is a clinicopathological syndrome associated with various clinical conditions presenting with headache, encephalopathy, seizure and cortical visual disturbances. Radiological findings in PRES are thought to be due to vasogenic edema predominantly in posterior cerebral hemispheres and are reversible with appropriate management. We present a case of post partum PRES,A 29 year old primigravida of 33 weeks 3 days period of gestation who prese...

  6. Central posterior capsule pigmentation in a patient with pigment dispersion and previous ocular trauma: a case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Mezaine, Hani S

    2010-01-01

    We report a 55-year-old man with unusually dense, unilateral central posterior capsule pigmentation associated with the characteristic clinical features of pigment dispersion syndrome, including a Krukenberg's spindle and dense trabecular pigmentation in both eyes. A history of an old blunt ocular trauma probably caused separation of the anterior hyaloid from the back of the lens, thereby creating an avenue by which pigment could reach the potential space of Berger's from the posterior chamber.

  7. Central posterior capsule pigmentation in a patient with pigment dispersion and previous ocular trauma: A case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Al-Mezaine Hani

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We report a 55-year-old man with unusually dense, unilateral central posterior capsule pigmentation associated with the characteristic clinical features of pigment dispersion syndrome, including a Krukenberg′s spindle and dense trabecular pigmentation in both eyes. A history of an old blunt ocular trauma probably caused separation of the anterior hyaloid from the back of the lens, thereby creating an avenue by which pigment could reach the potential space of Berger′s from the posterior chamber.

  8. A brief introduction to probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

    2018-02-01

    The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

  9. Estimating the Probability of Traditional Copying, Conditional on Answer-Copying Statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Jeff; Ghattas, Andrew

    2016-06-01

    Statistics for detecting copying on multiple-choice tests produce p values measuring the probability of a value at least as large as that observed, under the null hypothesis of no copying. The posterior probability of copying is arguably more relevant than the p value, but cannot be derived from Bayes' theorem unless the population probability of copying and probability distribution of the answer-copying statistic under copying are known. In this article, the authors develop an estimator for the posterior probability of copying that is based on estimable quantities and can be used with any answer-copying statistic. The performance of the estimator is evaluated via simulation, and the authors demonstrate how to apply the formula using actual data. Potential uses, generalizability to other types of cheating, and limitations of the approach are discussed.

  10. Delayed Single Stage Perineal Posterior Urethroplasty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, S.; Shahnawaz; Shahzad, I.; Baloch, M. U.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To determine the delayed single stage perineal posterior urethroplasty for treatment of posterior urethral stricture/distraction defect. Study Design: Descriptive case series. Place and Duration of Study: Department of Urology, Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre, Karachi, from January 2009 to December 2011. Methodology: Patients were selected for delayed single stage perineal posterior urethroplasty for treatment of posterior urethral stricture / distraction defect. All were initially suprapubically catheterized followed by definitive surgery after at least 3 months. Results: Thirty male patients were analyzed with a mean follow-up of 10 months, 2 patients were excluded as they developed failure in first 3 months postoperatively. Mean patients age was 26.25 ± 7.9 years. On follow-up, 7 patients (23.3 percentage) experienced recurrent stricture during first 10 months. Five (16.6 percentage) patients were treated successfully with single direct visual internal urethrotomy. Two patients (6.6 percentage) had more than one direct visual internal urethrotomy and considered failed. Re-do perineal urethroplasty was eventually performed. The overall success rate was 93.3 percentage with permissive criteria allowing single direct visual internal urethrotomy and 76.6% with strict criteria allowing no more procedures postoperatively. Conclusion: Posterior anastomotic urethroplasty offers excellent long-term results to patients with posterior urethral trauma and distraction defect even after multiple prior procedures. (author)

  11. Delayed Single Stage Perineal Posterior Urethroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Shahzad; Shahnawaz; Shahzad, Iqbal; Baloch, Muhammad Umar

    2015-06-01

    To determine the delayed single stage perineal posterior urethroplasty for treatment of posterior urethral stricture/distraction defect. Descriptive case series. Department of Urology, Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre, Karachi, from January 2009 to December 2011. Patients were selected for delayed single stage perineal posterior urethroplasty for treatment of posterior urethral stricture / distraction defect. All were initially suprapubically catheterized followed by definitive surgery after at least 3 months. Thirty male patients were analyzed with a mean follow-up of 10 months, 2 patients were excluded as they developed failure in first 3 months postoperatively. Mean patient's age was 26.25 ± 7.9 years. On follow-up, 7 patients (23.3%) experienced recurrent stricture during first 10 months. Five (16.6%) patients were treated successfully with single direct visual internal urethrotomy. Two patients (6.6%) had more than one direct visual internal urethrotomy and considered failed. Re-do perineal urethroplasty was eventually performed. The overall success rate was 93.3% with permissive criteria allowing single direct visual internal urethrotomy and 76.6% with strict criteria allowing no more procedures postoperatively. Posterior anastomotic urethroplasty offers excellent long-term results to patients with posterior urethral trauma and distraction defect even after multiple prior procedures.

  12. Early endoscopic realignment in posterior urethral injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, B; Baidya, J L

    2013-01-01

    Posterior urethral injury requires meticulous tertiary care and optimum expertise to manage successfully. The aim of our study is to describe our experiences with pelvic injuries involving posterior urethra and their outcome after early endoscopic realignment. A prospective study was carried out in 20 patients with complete posterior urethral rupture, from November 2007 till October 2010. They presented with blunt traumatic pelvic fracture and underwent primary realignment of posterior urethra in our institute. The definitive diagnosis of urethral rupture was made after retrograde urethrography and antegrade urethrography where applicable. The initial management was suprapubic catheter insertion after primary trauma management in casualty. After a week of conservative management with intravenous antibiotics and pain management, patients were subjected to the endoscopic realignment. The follow up period was at least six months. The results were analyzed with SPSS software. After endoscopic realignment, all patients were advised CISC for the initial 3 months. All patients voided well after three months of CISC. However, 12 patients were lost to follow up by the end of 6 postoperative months. Out of eight remaining patients, two had features of restricture and were managed with DVU followed by CISC again. One patient with restricture had some degree of erectile dysfunction who improved significantly after phospodiesterase inhibitors. None of the patients had features of incontinence. Early endoscopic realignment of posterior urethra is a minimally invasive modality in the management of complete posterior urethral injury with low rates of incontinence and impotency.

  13. Traumatic lesions of the posterior urethra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velarde-Ramos, L; Gómez-Illanes, R; Campos-Juanatey, F; Portillo-Martín, J A

    2016-11-01

    The posterior urethral lesions are associated with pelvis fractures in 5-10% of cases. The posterior urethra is attached to the pelvis bone by puboprostatic ligaments and the perineal membrane, which explains why disruption of the pelvic ring can injure the urethra at this level. To identify suspected cases of posterior urethral trauma and to perform the diagnosis and its immediate or deferred management. Search in PubMed of articles related to traumatic posterior urethral lesions, written in English or Spanish. We reviewed the relevant publications including literature reviews and chapters from books related to the topic. With patients with pelvis fractures, we must always rule out posterior urethral lesions. The diagnostic examination of choice is retrograde urethrography, which, along with the severity of the condition, will determine the management in the acute phase and whether the treatment will be performed immediately or deferred. Early diagnosis and proper acute management decrease the associated complications, such as strictures, urinary incontinence and erectile dysfunction. Despite the classical association between posterior urethral lesions and pelvic fractures, the management of those lesions (whether immediate or deferred) remains controversial. Thanks to the growing interest in urethral disease, there are an increasing number of studies that help us achieve better management of these lesions. Copyright © 2016 AEU. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  14. K-forbidden transition probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saitoh, T.R.; Sletten, G.; Bark, R.A.; Hagemann, G.B.; Herskind, B.; Saitoh-Hashimoto, N.; Tsukuba Univ., Ibaraki

    2000-01-01

    Reduced hindrance factors of K-forbidden transitions are compiled for nuclei with A∝180 where γ-vibrational states are observed. Correlations between these reduced hindrance factors and Coriolis forces, statistical level mixing and γ-softness have been studied. It is demonstrated that the K-forbidden transition probabilities are related to γ-softness. The decay of the high-K bandheads has been studied by means of the two-state mixing, which would be induced by the γ-softness, with the use of a number of K-forbidden transitions compiled in the present work, where high-K bandheads are depopulated by both E2 and ΔI=1 transitions. The validity of the two-state mixing scheme has been examined by using the proposed identity of the B(M1)/B(E2) ratios of transitions depopulating high-K bandheads and levels of low-K bands. A break down of the identity might indicate that other levels would mediate transitions between high- and low-K states. (orig.)

  15. Computed tomographic (CT) study of watershed area supplied by the posterior inferior cerebellar artery (PICA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nozaki, Junichi; Hirose, Satoshi; Hosotani, Kazuo; Kubota, Tetsuya; Kubota, Norihiko.

    1990-01-01

    Thirteen patients with clinical and computed tomographic (CT) evidence of cerebellar infarction were examined during 1987-1989. Six patients had onset of cerebellar infarction at ages ranging from 45 to 69, and seven patients had onset at ages over 70. In thirteen cases, we observed infarction in the inferior region of the cerebellum, and we studied these cases. CT demonstrated decreased density in 4 distinct anatomic areas. These areas are listed below, with estimation of the distribution of the hemispheric arteries of the posterior inferior cerebellar artery (PICA): Group 1 - posterior medial area, probably territory of the inferior vermian branch, tonsillar branch and/or medial artery of the hemispheric artery of the PICA; Group 2 - posterior intermediate area, probably territory of the intermediate artery of the hemispheric artery of the PICA; Group 3 - area including both areas of group 1 and group 3; Group 4 - lateral area, just posterior to pyramis, probably territory of the anterior inferior cerebellar artery and/or lateral artery of the hemispheric artery of PICA. The medial and intermedial cerebellar hemispheric segments were most commonly affected but the lateral segment was not. The PICA least frequently supplied the lateral segments. While the anterior inferior cerebellar artery usually anastomoses with the lateral artery of the hemispheric artery of the PICA. These vascular territories may provide good collateral circulation to this segment. And we also estimate the distribution of the PICA by the CT findings. (author)

  16. Echocardiographic Wall Motion Abnormality in Posterior Myocardial Infarction: The Diagnostic Value of Posterior Leads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Darehzereshki

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: For the purpose of ascertaining myocardial infarction (MI and ischemia, the sensitivity of the initial 12-lead ECG is inadequate. It is risky to diagnose posterior MI using only precordial reciprocal changes, since the other leads may be more optimally positioned for the identification of electrocardiographic changes. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between electrocardiography changes and wall motion abnormalities in patients with posterior MI for earlier and better diagnosis of posterior MI.Methods: In this prospective cross-sectional study, we enrolled patients with posterior MI who had come to the Emergency Department of Shariati Hospital with their first episode of chest pain. A 12-lead surface electrocardiogram using posterior leads (V7-V9 was performed for all participants. Patients with ST elevation >0.05 mV or pathologic Q wave in the posterior leads, as well as those with specific changes indicating posterior MI in V1-V2, were evaluated by echocardiography in terms of wall motion abnormalities. All data were analyzed using SPSS and p<0.05 were considered statistically significant.Results: Of a total 79 patients enrolled, 48 (60.8% were men, and the mean age was 57.35±8.22 years. Smoking (54.4% and diabetes (48% were the most prevalent risk factors. In the echocardiographic evaluation, all patients had wall motion abnormalities in the left ventricle and 19 patients (24.1% had wall motion abnormalities in the right ventricle. The most frequent segment with motion abnormality among the all patients was the mid-posterior. The posterior leads showed better positive predictive value than the anterior leads for posterior wall motion abnormality.Conclusion: Electrocardiography of the posterior leads in patients with acute chest pain can help in earlier diagnosis and in time treatment of posterior MI.

  17. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballentine, Leslie E.

    2016-08-01

    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  18. Failure probability analysis of optical grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Sun, Weiqiang; Jin, Yaohui; Hu, Weisheng

    2008-11-01

    Optical grid, the integrated computing environment based on optical network, is expected to be an efficient infrastructure to support advanced data-intensive grid applications. In optical grid, the faults of both computational and network resources are inevitable due to the large scale and high complexity of the system. With the optical network based distributed computing systems extensive applied in the processing of data, the requirement of the application failure probability have been an important indicator of the quality of application and an important aspect the operators consider. This paper will present a task-based analysis method of the application failure probability in optical grid. Then the failure probability of the entire application can be quantified, and the performance of reducing application failure probability in different backup strategies can be compared, so that the different requirements of different clients can be satisfied according to the application failure probability respectively. In optical grid, when the application based DAG (directed acyclic graph) is executed in different backup strategies, the application failure probability and the application complete time is different. This paper will propose new multi-objective differentiated services algorithm (MDSA). New application scheduling algorithm can guarantee the requirement of the failure probability and improve the network resource utilization, realize a compromise between the network operator and the application submission. Then differentiated services can be achieved in optical grid.

  19. Cognitive Control Signals in Posterior Cingulate Cortex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin eHayden

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Efficiently shifting between tasks is a central function of cognitive control. The role of the default network—a constellation of areas with high baseline activity that declines during task performance—in cognitive control remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that task switching demands cognitive control to shift the balance of processing towards the external world, and therefore predicted that switching between the two tasks would require suppression of activity of neurons within the CGp. To test this idea, we recorded the activity of single neurons in posterior cingulate cortex (CGp, a central node in the default network, in monkeys performing two interleaved tasks. As predicted, we found that basal levels of neuronal activity were reduced following a switch from one task to another and gradually returned to pre-switch baseline on subsequent trials. We failed to observe these effects in lateral intraparietal cortex (LIP, part of the dorsal fronto-parietal cortical attention network directly connected to CGp. These findings indicate that suppression of neuronal activity in CGp facilitates cognitive control, and suggest that activity in the default network reflects processes that directly compete with control processes elsewhere in the brain..

  20. Children's vomiting following posterior fossa surgery: A retrospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dundon Belinda

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Nausea and vomiting is a problem for children after neurosurgery and those requiring posterior fossa procedures appear to have a high incidence. This clinical observation has not been quantified nor have risk factors unique to this group of children been elucidated. Methods A six year retrospective chart audit at two Canadian children's hospitals was conducted. The incidence of nausea and vomiting was extracted. Hierarchical multivariable logistic regression was used to quantify risk and protective factors at 120 hours after surgery and early vs. late vomiting. Results The incidence of vomiting over a ten day postoperative period was 76.7%. Documented vomiting ranged from single events to greater than 20 over the same period. In the final multivariable model: adolescents (age 12 to Conclusion The incidence of vomiting in children after posterior fossa surgery is sufficient to consider all children requiring these procedures to be at high risk for POV. Nausea requires better assessment and documentation.

  1. Prediction and probability in sciences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.

    1998-01-01

    This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)

  2. Poisson Processes in Free Probability

    OpenAIRE

    An, Guimei; Gao, Mingchu

    2015-01-01

    We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of (compound) Poisson processes in classical probability. We proved that the sum of finitely many freely independent compound free Poisson processes is a compound free Poisson processes. We give a step by step procedure for constructing a (compound) free Poisso...

  3. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  4. Determining probabilities of geologic events and processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, R.L.; Mann, C.J.; Cranwell, R.M.

    1985-01-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency has recently published a probabilistic standard for releases of high-level radioactive waste from a mined geologic repository. The standard sets limits for contaminant releases with more than one chance in 100 of occurring within 10,000 years, and less strict limits for releases of lower probability. The standard offers no methods for determining probabilities of geologic events and processes, and no consensus exists in the waste-management community on how to do this. Sandia National Laboratories is developing a general method for determining probabilities of a given set of geologic events and processes. In addition, we will develop a repeatable method for dealing with events and processes whose probability cannot be determined. 22 refs., 4 figs

  5. Modulation of cognitive control levels via manipulation of saccade trial-type probability assessed with event-related BOLD fMRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, Jordan E; McDowell, Jennifer E

    2016-02-01

    Cognitive control supports flexible behavior adapted to meet current goals and can be modeled through investigation of saccade tasks with varying cognitive demands. Basic prosaccades (rapid glances toward a newly appearing stimulus) are supported by neural circuitry, including occipital and posterior parietal cortex, frontal and supplementary eye fields, and basal ganglia. These trials can be contrasted with complex antisaccades (glances toward the mirror image location of a stimulus), which are characterized by greater functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signal in the aforementioned regions and recruitment of additional regions such as dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. The current study manipulated the cognitive demands of these saccade tasks by presenting three rapid event-related runs of mixed saccades with a varying probability of antisaccade vs. prosaccade trials (25, 50, or 75%). Behavioral results showed an effect of trial-type probability on reaction time, with slower responses in runs with a high antisaccade probability. Imaging results exhibited an effect of probability in bilateral pre- and postcentral gyrus, bilateral superior temporal gyrus, and medial frontal gyrus. Additionally, the interaction between saccade trial type and probability revealed a strong probability effect for prosaccade trials, showing a linear increase in activation parallel to antisaccade probability in bilateral temporal/occipital, posterior parietal, medial frontal, and lateral prefrontal cortex. In contrast, antisaccade trials showed elevated activation across all runs. Overall, this study demonstrated that improbable performance of a typically simple prosaccade task led to augmented BOLD signal to support changing cognitive control demands, resulting in activation levels similar to the more complex antisaccade task. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

  6. [Displacement of the posterior part of the eyeball in myopia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akizawa, Yasuko; Masahiro, Ida

    2006-12-01

    The principal aim of this study was to investigate displacement of the posterior part of the eyeball within the muscle cone in myopic eyes, particularly in moderately myopic subjects as well as in high myopes. Secondly, the correlation of the amount of displacement and the outer axial length of the globe was studied. The direction of displacement was also examined to clarify whether the eyeball tends to shift toward a certain direction. Seven patients with moderate myopia (moderate myopia group), fifteen patients with high myopia without esotropia (high myopia group), five patients with high myopia and esotropia (myopic esotropia group), and twenty-two controls (control group) were examined. Using magnetic resonance imaging, the outer axial length and the displacement of the posterior portion of the eyeball in the muscle cone were measured. In order to eliminate interindividual differences in the facial configuration, the coronal scanning was done perpendicularly to the orbital axis. The displacement was measured in a plane 4 mm anterior to the globe-optic nerve junction. The displacement was represented by the distance and direction of the globe center from the center of the muscle cone. In the moderate myopia group, there was no displacement of the posterior part of the eyeball in the muscle cone. It was the same as in the control group. But among the three groups, the displacement (mean standard deviation) was significantly greater in the myopic esotropia group (1.53 +/- 0.49 mm) and the high myopia group (0.94 +/- 0.52 mm) than in the control group (0.11 +/- 0.18 mm) (one way ANOVA and multiple comparison). The outer axial length and the distance of the displacement in all cases was significantly correlated (r = 0.87, p = 0.01). Moreover, the posterior part of the eyeball of the myopic esotropia group and the high myopia group was displaced superiorly and temporally. The posterior part of the eyeball of myopic eyes was displaced superotemporally in the muscle

  7. Displacement of the posterior part of the eyeball in myopia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akizawa, Yasuko; Ida, Masahiro

    2006-01-01

    The principal aim of this study was to investigate displacement of the posterior part of the eyeball within the muscle cone in myopic eyes, particularly in moderately myopic subjects as well as in high myopes. Secondly, the correlation of the amount of displacement and the outer axial length of the globe was studied. The direction of displacement was also examined to clarify whether the eyeball tends to shift toward a certain direction. Seven patients with moderate myopia (moderate myopia group), fifteen patients with high myopia without esotropia (high myopia group), five patients with high myopia and esotropia (myopic esotropia group), and twenty-two controls (control group) were examined. Using magnetic resonance imaging, the outer axial length and the displacement of the posterior portion of the eyeball in the muscle cone were measured. In order to eliminate interindividual differences in the facial configuration, the coronal scanning was done perpendicularly to the orbital axis. The displacement was measured in a plane 4 mm anterior to the globe-optic nerve junction. The displacement was represented by the distance and direction of the globe center from the center of the muscle cone. In the moderate myopia group, there was no displacement of the posterior part of the eyeball in the muscle cone. It was the same as in the control group. But among the three groups, the displacement (mean±standard deviation) was significantly greater in the myopic esotropia group (1.53±0.49 mm) and the high myopia group (0.94±0.52 mm) than in the control group (0.11±0.18 mm) (one way ANOVA and multiple comparison). The outer axial length and the distance of the displacement in all cases was significantly correlated (r=0.87, p=0.01). Moreover, the posterior part of the eyeball of the myopic esotropia group and the high myopia group was displaced superiorly and temporally. The posterior part of the eyeball of myopic eyes was displaced superotemporally in the muscle cone

  8. Posterior dental size reduction in hominids: the Atapuerca evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bermúdez de Castro, J M; Nicolas, M E

    1995-04-01

    In order to reassess previous hypotheses concerning dental size reduction of the posterior teeth during Pleistocene human evolution, current fossil dental evidence is examined. This evidence includes the large sample of hominid teeth found in recent excavations (1984-1993) in the Sima de los Huesos Middle Pleistocene cave site of the Sierra de Atapuerca (Burgos, Spain). The lower fourth premolars and molars of the Atapuerca hominids, probably older than 300 Kyr, have dimensions similar to those of modern humans. Further, these hominids share the derived state of other features of the posterior teeth with modern humans, such as a similar relative molar size and frequent absence of the hypoconulid, thus suggesting a possible case of parallelism. We believe that dietary changes allowed size reduction of the posterior teeth during the Middle Pleistocene, and the present evidence suggests that the selective pressures that operated on the size variability of these teeth were less restrictive than what is assumed by previous models of dental reduction. Thus, the causal relationship between tooth size decrease and changes in food-preparation techniques during the Pleistocene should be reconsidered. Moreover, the present evidence indicates that the differential reduction of the molars cannot be explained in terms of restriction of available growth space. The molar crown area measurements of a modern human sample were also investigated. The results of this study, as well as previous similar analyses, suggest that a decrease of the rate of cell proliferation, which affected the later-forming crown regions to a greater extent, may be the biological process responsible for the general and differential dental size reduction that occurred during human evolution.

  9. Management of posterior urethral disruption injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Jeremy B; McAninch, Jack W

    2009-03-01

    Posterior urethral disruption is a traumatic injury to the male urethra, which most often results from pelvic fracture. After trauma, the distraction defect between the two ends of the urethra often scars and becomes fibrotic, blocking the urethra and bladder emptying. Increasing evidence suggests that many posterior urethral disruptions occur at the junction between the membranous urethra and the bulbar urethra, which is distal to the rhabdosphincter. In the acute setting, when a posterior urethral disruption is suspected, retrograde urethrography should be performed. Posterior urethral disruptions can be managed acutely by realignment of the urethra over a urethral catheter or by placement of a suprapubic catheter for bladder drainage only. Once fibrosis has stabilized, the patient can undergo posterior urethroplasty. In most cases, this procedure can be performed via a perineal approach in a single-stage surgery. The results of this single-stage perineal urethroplasty are excellent, and a patent urethra can be re-established in the majority of men who undergo surgery.

  10. International comparative evaluation of knee replacement with fixed or mobile-bearing posterior-stabilized prostheses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Stephen; Sedrakyan, Art; Baste, Valborg; Gioe, Terence J; Namba, Robert; Martínez Cruz, Olga; Stea, Susanna; Paxton, Elizabeth; Banerjee, Samprit; Isaacs, Abby J; Robertsson, Otto

    2014-12-17

    Posterior-stabilized total knee prostheses were introduced to address instability secondary to loss of posterior cruciate ligament function, and they have either fixed or mobile bearings. Mobile bearings were developed to improve the function and longevity of total knee prostheses. In this study, the International Consortium of Orthopaedic Registries used a distributed health data network to study a large cohort of posterior-stabilized prostheses to determine if the outcome of a posterior-stabilized total knee prosthesis differs depending on whether it has a fixed or mobile-bearing design. Aggregated registry data were collected with a distributed health data network that was developed by the International Consortium of Orthopaedic Registries to reduce barriers to participation (e.g., security, proprietary, legal, and privacy issues) that have the potential to occur with the alternate centralized data warehouse approach. A distributed health data network is a decentralized model that allows secure storage and analysis of data from different registries. Each registry provided data on mobile and fixed-bearing posterior-stabilized prostheses implanted between 2001 and 2010. Only prostheses associated with primary total knee arthroplasties performed for the treatment of osteoarthritis were included. Prostheses with all types of fixation were included except for those with the rarely used reverse hybrid (cementless tibial and cemented femoral components) fixation. The use of patellar resurfacing was reported. The outcome of interest was time to first revision (for any reason). Multivariate meta-analysis was performed with linear mixed models with survival probability as the unit of analysis. This study includes 137,616 posterior-stabilized knee prostheses; 62% were in female patients, and 17.6% had a mobile bearing. The results of the fixed-effects model indicate that in the first year the mobile-bearing posterior-stabilized prostheses had a significantly higher hazard

  11. Probability inequalities for decomposition integrals

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 315, č. 1 (2017), s. 240-248 ISSN 0377-0427 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Decomposition integral * Superdecomposition integral * Probability inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0470959.pdf

  12. Expected utility with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1994-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

  13. Reliability-based design optimization using a generalized subset simulation method and posterior approximation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yuan-Zhuo; Li, Hong-Shuang; Yao, Wei-Xing

    2018-05-01

    The evaluation of the probabilistic constraints in reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) problems has always been significant and challenging work, which strongly affects the performance of RBDO methods. This article deals with RBDO problems using a recently developed generalized subset simulation (GSS) method and a posterior approximation approach. The posterior approximation approach is used to transform all the probabilistic constraints into ordinary constraints as in deterministic optimization. The assessment of multiple failure probabilities required by the posterior approximation approach is achieved by GSS in a single run at all supporting points, which are selected by a proper experimental design scheme combining Sobol' sequences and Bucher's design. Sequentially, the transformed deterministic design optimization problem can be solved by optimization algorithms, for example, the sequential quadratic programming method. Three optimization problems are used to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

  14. Invariant probabilities of transition functions

    CERN Document Server

    Zaharopol, Radu

    2014-01-01

    The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...

  15. Introduction to probability with Mathematica

    CERN Document Server

    Hastings, Kevin J

    2009-01-01

    Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...

  16. The bihemispheric posterior inferior cerebellar artery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullen, Sean P.; Ozanne, Augustin; Alvarez, Hortensia; Lasjaunias, Pierre

    2005-01-01

    Rarely, a solitary posterior inferior cerebellar artery (PICA) will supply both cerebellar hemispheres. We report four cases of this variant. We present a retrospective review of clinical information and imaging of patients undergoing angiography at our institution to identify patients with a bihemispheric PICA. There were four patients: three males and one female. One patient presented with a ruptured arteriovenous malformation, and one with a ruptured aneurysm. Two patients had normal angiograms. The bihemispheric PICA was an incidental finding in all cases. The bihemispheric vessel arose from the dominant left vertebral artery, and the contralateral posterior inferior cerebellar artery was absent or hypoplastic. In all cases, contralateral cerebellar supply arose from a continuation of the ipsilateral PICA distal to the choroidal point and which crossed the midline dorsal to the vermis. We conclude that the PICA may supply both cerebellar hemispheres. This rare anatomic variant should be considered when evaluating patients with posterior fossa neurovascular disease. (orig.)

  17. Linear positivity and virtual probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartle, James B.

    2004-01-01

    We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics

  18. Anterior ST depression with acute transmural inferior infarction due to posterior infarction. A vectorcardiographic and scintigraphic study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukharji, J.; Murray, S.; Lewis, S.E.; Croft, C.H.; Corbett, J.R.; Willerson, J.T.; Rude, R.E.

    1984-01-01

    The hypothesis that anterior ST segment depression represents concomitant posterior infarction was tested in 49 patients admitted with a first transmural inferior myocardial infarction. Anterior ST depression was defined as 0.1 mV or more ST depression in leads V1, V2 or V3 on an electrocardiogram recorded within 18 hours of infarction. Serial vectorcardiograms and technetium pyrophosphate scans were obtained. Eighty percent of the patients (39 of 49) had anterior ST depression. Of these 39 patients, 34% fulfilled vectorcardiographic criteria for posterior infarction, and 60% had pyrophosphate scanning evidence of posterior infarction. Early anterior ST depression was neither highly sensitive (84%) nor specific (20%) for the detection of posterior infarction as defined by pyrophosphate imaging. Of patients with persistent anterior ST depression (greater than 72 hours), 87% had posterior infarction detected by pyrophosphate scan. In patients with inferior myocardial infarction, vectorcardiographic evidence of posterior infarction correlated poorly with pyrophosphate imaging data. Right ventricular infarction was present on pyrophosphate imaging in 40% of patients with pyrophosphate changes of posterior infarction but without vectorcardiographic evidence of posterior infarction. It is concluded that: 1) the majority of patients with acute inferior myocardial infarction have anterior ST segment depression; 2) early anterior ST segment depression in such patients is not a specific marker for posterior infarction; and 3) standard vectorcardiographic criteria for transmural posterior infarction may be inaccurate in patients with concomitant transmural inferior myocardial infarction or right ventricular infarction, or both

  19. Malignant ectomesenchymoma of the posterior mediastinum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, M. H.; Iqbal, R.; Hafeez-UR-Rehman; Yaqub, N.; Anwar-ul-Haq

    2001-01-01

    The surgical management of a four years old female child, presented at the Islamic International Medical Complex (IIMC), Islamabad, with three months history of recurrent chest infections and failure to thrive, is discussed. Posterior mediastinal tumor was diagnosed radiologically. Tumor had flimsy attachments with pericardium and thoracic aorta but was densely adherent with lower lobe of left lung. The tumor was completely removed along with a segment of lung. The postoperative recovery was uneventful. The diagnosis of malignant ectomesenchymoma was made on histopathology. The patients is well in follow-up. This is the first reported case of malignant ectomesenchymoma arising within posterior mediastinum. (author)

  20. Transverse posterior element fractures associated with torsion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abel, M.S.

    1989-01-01

    Six examples of a previously undescribed class of transverse vertebral element fractures are presented. These fractures differ from Chance and Smith fractures and their variants in the following respects: (1) the etiology is torsion and not flexion; (2) there is neither distraction of posterior ring fragments nor posterior ligament tears; (3) in contrast to Chance and Smith fractures, extension of the fracture into the vertebral body is absent or minimal; (4) the transverse process of the lumbar vertebra is avulsed at its base with a vertical fracture, not split horizontally. These fractures occur in cervical, lumbar, and sacral vertebrae in normal or compromised areas of the spine. (orig.)

  1. Treatment planning of implants in posterior quadrants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jivraj, S; Chee, W

    2006-07-08

    Differences in anatomy and biomechanics make treatment of posterior quadrants with dental implants substantially different to that of anterior areas. Without implants, when posterior teeth were lost, treatment options included a long span fixed partial denture or a removable prosthesis, especially when no terminal abutment was available. Today, with the use of implants, options are available that allow preservation of unrestored teeth.(1) When teeth are missing, implant supported restorations can be considered the treatment of choice from the perspective of occlusal support, preservation of adjacent teeth and avoidance of a removable partial denture.

  2. Posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome in poststretococcal acute glomerulonephritis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bazzino Borzone, F.; Pandolfo Arias, M.; Protasio Palomino, L.; Pujadas Ferrer, M.; Cerisola Cardozo, A.; Gonzalez, G.; Caggiani Malzone, M.; Rubio Santoro, I.

    2005-01-01

    Reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy (LEPR) is a clinical entity that affects radiation usually the white matter of the cerebral hemispheres. It is frequently associated with acute arterial hypertension and immunosuppressive therapy, among other causes. The clinical presentation is varied, with headache, nausea, vomiting, impaired consciousness and abnormal behavior, seizures and visual disturbances, symptoms that often regress. Computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images show white matter edema predominantly in posterior regions of the brain. We present a 10 year old boy with leprosy in the course of a nephrotic syndrome secondary to acute diffuse glomerunefritis (GNDA) poststreptococcal. (author) [es

  3. Neurenteric cyst of the posterior mediastinum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Setty, H.A.N.; Hegde, K.K.S.; Narvekar, V.N.

    2005-01-01

    We report a case of a large posterior mediastinal neurenteric cyst in a neonate demonstrated by chest radiographs, barium swallow examination, ultrasonography and CT of the thorax. All the investigations revealed a large posterior mediastinal cystic mass with vertebral anomalies in the form of scoliosis and hemivertebra. The cyst was completely excised by a right posterolateral thoracotomy and biopsy showed the features of a neurenteric cyst. The rarity of the lesion prompted us to report this case Copyright (2005) Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd

  4. A method for estimating failure rates for low probability events arising in PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorne, M.C.; Williams, M.M.R.

    1995-01-01

    The authors develop a method for predicting failure rates and failure probabilities per event when, over a given test period or number of demands, no failures have occurred. A Bayesian approach is adopted to calculate a posterior probability distribution for the failure rate or failure probability per event subsequent to the test period. This posterior is then used to estimate effective failure rates or probabilities over a subsequent period of time or number of demands. In special circumstances, the authors results reduce to the well-known rules of thumb, viz: 1/N and 1/T, where N is the number of demands during the test period for no failures and T is the test period for no failures. However, the authors are able to give strict conditions on the validity of these rules of thumb and to improve on them when necessary

  5. Evaluation of the probability distribution of intake from a single measurement on a personal air sampler

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birchall, A.; Muirhead, C.R.; James, A.C.

    1988-01-01

    An analytical expression has been derived for the k-sum distribution, formed by summing k random variables from a lognormal population. Poisson statistics are used with this distribution to derive distribution of intake when breathing an atmosphere with a constant particle number concentration. Bayesian inference is then used to calculate the posterior probability distribution of concentrations from a given measurement. This is combined with the above intake distribution to give the probability distribution of intake resulting from a single measurement of activity made by an ideal sampler. It is shown that the probability distribution of intake is very dependent on the prior distribution used in Bayes' theorem. The usual prior assumption, that all number concentrations are equally probable, leads to an imbalance in the posterior intake distribution. This can be resolved if a new prior proportional to w -2/3 is used, where w is the expected number of particles collected. (author)

  6. Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

    2011-01-01

    Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

  7. Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandy, W. T. Jr.

    2009-01-01

    In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

  8. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Ultrasonographic findings of posterior interosseous nerve syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, You Dong; Ha, Doo Hoe; Lee, Sang Min [Dept. of Radiology, CHA Bundang Medical Center, CHA University, Seongnam (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-10-15

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ultrasonographic findings associated with posterior interosseous nerve (PIN) syndrome. Approval from the Institutional Review Board was obtained. A retrospective review of 908 patients' sonographic images of the upper extremity from January 2001 to October 2010 revealed 10 patients suspicious for a PIN abnormality (7 male and 3 female patients; mean age of 51.8±13.1 years; age range, 32 to 79 years). The ultrasonographic findings of PIN syndrome, including changes in the PIN and adjacent secondary changes, were evaluated. The anteroposterior diameter of the pathologic PIN was measured in eight patients and the anteroposterior diameter of the contralateral asymptomatic PIN was measured in six patients, all at the level immediately proximal to the proximal supinator border. The size of the pathologic nerves and contralateral asymptomatic nerves was compared using the Mann-Whitney U test. Swelling of the PIN proximal to the supinator canal by compression at the arcade of Fröhse was observed in four cases. Swelling of the PIN distal to the supinator canal was observed in one case. Loss of the perineural fat plane in the supinator canal was observed in one case. Four soft tissue masses were noted. Secondary denervation atrophy of the supinator and extensor muscles was observed in two cases. The mean anteroposterior diameter of the pathologic nerves (n=8, 1.79±0.43 mm) was significantly larger than that of the contralateral asymptomatic nerves (n=6, 1.02±0.22 mm) (P=0.003). Ultrasonography provides high-resolution images of the PIN and helps to diagnose PIN syndrome through visualization of its various causes and adjacent secondary changes.

  10. An evaluation of Microleakage of Posterior Composites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammadi N

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available Polymerization contraction may produce defects in the composite - tooth bond. This may lead to bond failure and microleakage. The aim of this study was to reduce microleakage of posterior composites using different methods. 45 molar and premolars extracted teeth were choosen. The cavities were randomly assigned into 5 groups of 9. Box-shaped cavities were prepared on each side of proximal surfaces and restored by five different methods. Group 1 was filled by a light-cured composite and dentin bonding agents (DBAs with light curing from the occlusal area. Group 2 was filled by a light-cured {LC} composite and DBA, in addition the angle between the light source and occlusal area was 45 degree. After conditioning of teeth in-group 3, LC glass ionomer was placed on the gingival floor and then filled by a light-cured composite and DBA. In group 4, after conditioning, the teeth were lined by a LC glass ionomer and then self-cured composite was placed on gingival floor. This group was filled with LC composite. In Group 5 DBA was used followed by placing a self-curing composite on gingival floor and filled by LC composite. The teeth were subjected to 500 thermocycling (5°C and 55°C with dowel time 30 s and stored in 0.5% basic fushin for 24 hours. Dye penetration was evaluated by light microscope. The results were tested by Kruskat-Wallis one-way analysis of variance by rank. The comparison between treatment groups showed highly significant difference {P<0.0001. No significant difference was found between groups 3 versus 4 and groups 1,2,5 versus 3,4. Group 3 showed the least microleakage score. Therefore least microleakage was obtained by the group which used L C glass ionomer and DBA followed by filling a composite.

  11. Anterior Commissure-posterior commissure revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Sang Han; Chi, Je Geun; Kim, Young Bo; Cho, Zang Hee

    2013-01-01

    The anterior commissure (AC) and posterior commissure (PC) are the two distinct anatomic structures in the brain which are difficult to observe in detail with conventional MRI, such as a 1.5T MRI system. However, recent advances in ultra-high resolution MRI have enabled us to examine the AC and PC directly. The objective of the present study is to standardize the shape and size of the AC and PC using a 7.0T MRI and to propose a new brain reference line. Thirty-four, 21 males and 13 females, healthy volunteers were enrolled in this study. After determining the center of each AC and PC, we defined the connection of these centers as the central intercommissural line (CIL). We compared the known extra- and intra-cerebral reference lines with the CIL to determine the difference in the angles. Additionally, we obtained horizontal line from flat ground line of look front human. The difference in angle of the CIL and the tangential intercommissural line (TIL) from the horizontal line was 8.7 ± 5.1 (11 ± 4.8) and 17.4 ± 5.2 (19.8 ± 4.8) degrees in males and females, respectively. The difference in angle between the CIL and canthomeatal line was 10.1 in both male and female, and there was no difference between both sexes. Likewise, there was no significant difference in angle between the CIL and TIL between both sexes (8.3 +/- 1.1 in male and 8.8 +/- 0.7 in female). In this study, we have used 7.0T MRI to define the AC and PC quantitatively and in a more robust manner. We have showed that the CIL is a reproducible reference line and serves as a standard for the axial images of the human brain.

  12. A philosophical essay on probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Laplace, Marquis de

    1996-01-01

    A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application

  13. A Bernstein-Von Mises Theorem for discrete probability distributions

    OpenAIRE

    Boucheron, S.; Gassiat, E.

    2008-01-01

    We investigate the asymptotic normality of the posterior distribution in the discrete setting, when model dimension increases with sample size. We consider a probability mass function θ0 on ℕ∖{0} and a sequence of truncation levels (kn)n satisfying kn3≤ninf i≤knθ0(i). Let θ̂ denote the maximum likelihood estimate of (θ0(i))i≤kn and let Δn(θ0) denote the kn-dimensional vector which i-th coordinate is defined by $\\sqrt{n}(\\hat{\\theta}_{n}(i)-\\theta_{0}(i))$ for 1≤i≤kn. We check that under mild ...

  14. Diagnosis of radial tear of posterior horn of medial meniscus by MR imaging. Prospective study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motoyama, Tatsuo; Ihara, Hidetoshi; Kawashima, Mahito

    2002-01-01

    It is not easy to detect radial tears of the posterior horn of the medial meniscus (torn posterior horn) under arthroscopy if the surgeon does not notice the tear before arthroscopy. Occasionally the tear goes undetected or is missed during arthroscopy. The sagittal view of MR imaging is very useful for diagnosing torn posterior horns. The normal posterior horn of the medial meniscus appears as an image of low intensity triangle of the sagittal MRI medial slice next to the PCL. On the contrary, the image of the torn posterior horn shows a high intensity triangle, so we refer to the feature as a white meniscus sign. We prospectively examined the accuracy of white meniscus sign of MRI. Forty-two knees in 41 patients were studied. They were over 40 years of age, diagnosed with medial meniscus tear and had undergone MRI before arthroscopy. Before arthroscopy, we predicted the existence of torn posterior horn by the white meniscus sign and examined the accuracy of the MRI after arthroscopy. Total accuracy rate was 90.5%, sensitivity was 94.1%, and specificity was 88.0%. We concluded that the white meniscus sign on MRI is very useful for defecting torn posterior horn of the medial meniscus. (author)

  15. Quantitative regional validation of the visual rating scale for posterior cortical atrophy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, Christiane; Benedictus, Marije R.; Koedam, Esther L.G.M.; Scheltens, Philip; Flier, Wiesje M. van der; Versteeg, Adriaan; Wattjes, Mike P.; Barkhof, Frederik; Vrenken, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    Validate the four-point visual rating scale for posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) on magnetic resonance images (MRI) through quantitative grey matter (GM) volumetry and voxel-based morphometry (VBM) to justify its use in clinical practice. Two hundred twenty-nine patients with probable Alzheimer's disease and 128 with subjective memory complaints underwent 3T MRI. PCA was rated according to the visual rating scale. GM volumes of six posterior structures and the total posterior region were extracted using IBASPM and compared among PCA groups. To determine which anatomical regions contributed most to the visual scores, we used binary logistic regression. VBM compared local GM density among groups. Patients were categorised according to their PCA scores: PCA-0 (n = 122), PCA-1 (n = 143), PCA-2 (n = 79), and PCA-3 (n = 13). All structures except the posterior cingulate differed significantly among groups. The inferior parietal gyrus volume discriminated the most between rating scale levels. VBM showed that PCA-1 had a lower GM volume than PCA-0 in the parietal region and other brain regions, whereas between PCA-1 and PCA-2/3 GM atrophy was mostly restricted to posterior regions. The visual PCA rating scale is quantitatively validated and reliably reflects GM atrophy in parietal regions, making it a valuable tool for the daily radiological assessment of dementia. (orig.)

  16. Quantitative regional validation of the visual rating scale for posterior cortical atrophy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moeller, Christiane; Benedictus, Marije R.; Koedam, Esther L.G.M.; Scheltens, Philip [VU University Medical Center, Alzheimer Center and Department of Neurology, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Flier, Wiesje M. van der [VU University Medical Center, Alzheimer Center and Department of Neurology, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); VU University Medical Center, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Versteeg, Adriaan; Wattjes, Mike P.; Barkhof, Frederik [VU University Medical Center, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Vrenken, Hugo [VU University Medical Center, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); VU University Medical Center, Department of Physics and Medical Technology, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2014-02-15

    Validate the four-point visual rating scale for posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) on magnetic resonance images (MRI) through quantitative grey matter (GM) volumetry and voxel-based morphometry (VBM) to justify its use in clinical practice. Two hundred twenty-nine patients with probable Alzheimer's disease and 128 with subjective memory complaints underwent 3T MRI. PCA was rated according to the visual rating scale. GM volumes of six posterior structures and the total posterior region were extracted using IBASPM and compared among PCA groups. To determine which anatomical regions contributed most to the visual scores, we used binary logistic regression. VBM compared local GM density among groups. Patients were categorised according to their PCA scores: PCA-0 (n = 122), PCA-1 (n = 143), PCA-2 (n = 79), and PCA-3 (n = 13). All structures except the posterior cingulate differed significantly among groups. The inferior parietal gyrus volume discriminated the most between rating scale levels. VBM showed that PCA-1 had a lower GM volume than PCA-0 in the parietal region and other brain regions, whereas between PCA-1 and PCA-2/3 GM atrophy was mostly restricted to posterior regions. The visual PCA rating scale is quantitatively validated and reliably reflects GM atrophy in parietal regions, making it a valuable tool for the daily radiological assessment of dementia. (orig.)

  17. Spectral Domain Optical Coherence Tomography Findings in Posterior Microphthalmia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emine Tınkır Kayıtmazbatır

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The retinal spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT findings of two posterior microphthalmia cases are presented in this case report. For this purpose, the findings of two siblings aged five and seven years who presented to our clinic with the complain of far-sightedness and high hypermetropia were evaluated. Both cases diagnosed to have posterior microphthalmia demonstrated normal biomicroscopic anterior segment examination and gonioscopy findings and the axial lengths were measured to be shorter than 17mm. The SD-OCT analysis of papillomacular folds detected in fundus examination revealed contribution of only neurosensorial retina. Beneath the retinal fold, we observed bilateral cysts in the intraretinal area in one of the cases and a triangle-shaped hyporeflective space with an apex corresponding to that of the retinal fold in the subretinal area in both cases. SD-OCT is an adjunctive imaging tool for diagnosis and follow-up of degenerative changes in posterior microphthalmia. These changes may be also important for visual prognosis. (Turk J Ophthalmol 2014; 44: 240-2

  18. Posterior circulation aneurysms: A 10-year institutional analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saurabh Sharma

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background : Aneurysms are uncommon and challenging to manage. Materials and Methods: A retrospective study was designed to report 53 patients who are treated from June 2002 to June 2011. Results: The mean age at presentation was 46.34 ± 13.67 years (males, 26. Clinical features included subarachnoid hemorrhage (median Hunt and Hess Grade II, n = 42, cranial nerve palsies (9, hydrocephalus (5, and incidentally diagnosed (5. Locations included superior cerebellar artery (3, posterior cerebral artery (2, basilar trunk (4, vertebral (8, anterior inferior cerebellar artery (AICA (5, posterior inferior cerebellar artery (PICA (13, vertebrobasilar junction (6, and basilar top (13. Management included both endovascular intervention (26 and surgery (19, and both (2. Five patients presented as poor grade and underwent only extraventricular drain placement while one patient had thrombosed aneurysm and was managed conservatively. Mortality was 26.4% (n = 14 and morbidity included vasospasm (10, meningitis (2, pseudomeningocele (2, pneumonitis (2, and myocardial infarction (1. Conclusion: Posterior circulation aneurysms are highly challenging. They require the multimodality approach, and decision regarding surgery or embolization has to be individualized.

  19. Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome: Some novel ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Two cases occurred following cerebral anoxia due to accidental strangulation and near-drowning, respectively. The third patient, a child known to have E-β thalassaemia, presented with transient encephalopathy following blood transfusion but involving the anterior brain rather than the posterior part classically described in ...

  20. Surgical site infection in posterior spine surgery

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-03-20

    Mar 20, 2016 ... Methodology: All consecutive patients who had posterior spine surgeries between January 2012 ... However, spinal instrumentation, surgery on cervical region and wound inspection on or ... While advances have been made in infection control ... costs, due to loss of productivity, patient dissatisfaction and.

  1. A posterior tibial tendon skipping rope

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Sterkenburg, M. N.; Haverkamp, D.; van Dijk, C. N.; Kerkhoffs, G. M. M. J.

    2010-01-01

    This report presents an athletic patient with swelling and progressive pain on the posteromedial side of his right ankle on weight bearing. MRI demonstrated tenosynovitis and suspicion of a length rupture. On posterior tibial tendoscopy, there was no rupture, but medial from the tendon a tissue cord

  2. Hindfoot endoscopy for posterior ankle pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, C. Niek

    2006-01-01

    Hindfoot pain can be caused by a variety of pathologies, most of which can be diagnosed and treated with endoscopy. The main indications are posterior tibial tenosynovectomy, diagnosis of a longitudinal peroneus brevis rupture, peroneal tendon adhesiolysis, flexor hallucis longus release, os

  3. Posterior arch defects of the cervical spine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, A.M.; Wechsler, R.J.; Landy, M.D.; Wetzner, S.M.; Goldstein, S.A.

    1982-01-01

    Spondylolysis and absence of the pedicle are congenital anomalies of the posterior cervical spine. Their roentgenographic changes may be confused with other more serious entities which may necessitate either emergent therapy or require extensive diagnostic testing and treatment. Four cases are present and the literature is reviewed. A hypothesis for the embryologic etiology of these entities is proposed. (orig.)

  4. Frozen shoulder or missed posterior dislocation?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    initial diagnosis and management. ... D Leijnen,1,2 MD, MMed (Sports Med); J T Viljoen,1 BSc (Physio), MPhil (Exercise Sci); J H Kirby,1 MB ChB, MSc (Sports Med); ... diagnosis of posterior shoulder dislocation at the time of injury could.

  5. Restoration of the endodontically treated posterior tooth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Polesel

    2014-06-01

    Results and conclusions: Direct adhesive restorations, indirect bonded restorations and traditional full crown are three therapeutic options for the single posterior endodontically treated teeth. The amount of remaining sound tooth structure is the most significant factor influencing the therapeutic approach. The clinician's operative skill is a determining aspect for long-term success of adhesive inlays.

  6. Posterior arch defects of the cervical spine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwartz, A.M.; Wechsler, R.J.; Landy, M.D.; Wetzner, S.M.; Goldstein, S.A.

    1982-05-01

    Spondylolysis and absence of the pedicle are congenital anomalies of the posterior cervical spine. Their roentgenographic changes may be confused with other more serious entities which may necessitate either emergent therapy or require extensive diagnostic testing and treatment. Four cases are present and the literature is reviewed. A hypothesis for the embryologic etiology of these entities is proposed.

  7. Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome in patient

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    abp

    2015-05-26

    May 26, 2015 ... reversible Posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome [1, 2]. The. PRES is a clinical and radiological entity associating varying degrees, headaches, impaired consciousness, seizures and visual disturbances to neurological and radiological abnormalities of the parietal-occipital white matter [3]. PRES has a ...

  8. Extensive Supratentorial Hemorrhages Following Posterior Fossa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Remote supratentorial hematoma soon after posterior fossa surgery for the removal of a space-occupying lesion is a rare but dramatic and dreaded complication, carrying significant morbidity and mortality. A 47-year-old woman presented with headache of 1-year duration that worsened over last 2 months, progressive ...

  9. CT findings of posterior pararenal effusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koh, Byung Hee; Cho, On Koo; Kim, Sonn Yong

    1990-01-01

    The posterior pararenal space(PPS) is a potential space between the posterior renal fascia and the transversalis fascia. We reviewed 12 cases of posterior pararenal effusion. The causes of the effusion were retroperitoneal hemorrhage due to trauma(7 cases) or rupture of renal tumor(1 case), pancreatitis(2 cases), urinoma (1 case) and amebic colitis of the cecum(1 case). The CT findings of the effusion were semilunar fluid density in the dependant portion of the PPS(9/12), partial obliteration of the PPS extending to the flank stripe(2/12), and total obliteration of the PPS extending to the anterior abdominal wall(1/12). The effusion in the ipsilateral perirenal space and thickening of the ipsilateral posterior renal fascia were combined in all cases. The effusion in the ipsilateral anterior pararenal space was associated in 11 cases of 12. The effusion in the PPS is not uncommon findings of retroperitoneal hemorrhage or effusion, but usually related with perirenal or anterior pararenal effusion with no clinical significance

  10. Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

    2015-04-01

    This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Free probability and random matrices

    CERN Document Server

    Mingo, James A

    2017-01-01

    This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.

  12. Introduction to probability and measure

    CERN Document Server

    Parthasarathy, K R

    2005-01-01

    According to a remark attributed to Mark Kac 'Probability Theory is a measure theory with a soul'. This book with its choice of proofs, remarks, examples and exercises has been prepared taking both these aesthetic and practical aspects into account.

  13. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acacio de Barros, J.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  14. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)

    2012-12-18

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  15. Default probabilities and default correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans

    2001-01-01

    Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...

  16. The Probabilities of Unique Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    Washington, DC USA Max Lotstein and Phil Johnson-Laird Department of Psychology Princeton University Princeton, NJ USA August 30th 2012...social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. The participants ranked the probability that Linda is a feminist bank teller as...retorted that such a flagrant violation of the probability calculus was a result of a psychological experiment that obscured the rationality of the

  17. Probability Matching, Fast and Slow

    OpenAIRE

    Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta

    2014-01-01

    A prominent point of contention among researchers regarding the interpretation of probability-matching behavior is whether it represents a cognitively sophisticated, adaptive response to the inherent uncertainty of the tasks or settings in which it is observed, or whether instead it represents a fundamental shortcoming in the heuristics that support and guide human decision making. Put crudely, researchers disagree on whether probability matching is "smart" or "dumb." Here, we consider eviden...

  18. Probability & Statistics: Modular Learning Exercises. Teacher Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Actuarial Foundation, 2012

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of these modules is to provide an introduction to the world of probability and statistics to accelerated mathematics students at the high school level. The modules also introduce students to real world math concepts and problems that property and casualty actuaries come across in their work. They are designed to be used by teachers and…

  19. Probability & Statistics: Modular Learning Exercises. Student Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Actuarial Foundation, 2012

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of these modules is to provide an introduction to the world of probability and statistics to accelerated mathematics students at the high school level. The materials are centered on the fictional town of Happy Shores, a coastal community which is at risk for hurricanes. Actuaries at an insurance company figure out the risks and…

  20. One-stage posterior approaches for treatment of thoracic spinal infection

    OpenAIRE

    Kao, Fu-Cheng; Tsai, Tsung-Ting; Niu, Chi-Chien; Lai, Po-Liang; Chen, Lih-Huei; Chen, Wen-Jer

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Treating thoracic infective spondylodiscitis with anterior surgical approaches carry a relatively high risk of perioperative and postoperative complications. Posterior approaches have been reported to result in lower complication rates than anterior procedures, but more evidence is needed to demonstrate the safety and efficacy of 1-stage posterior approaches for treating infectious thoracic spondylodiscitis. Preoperative and postoperative clinical data, of 18 patients who underwent 2...

  1. To compare efficacy & discomfort in posterior nasal packing with foley's catheters versus bipp gauze packing in cases of posterior epistaxis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, M.A.; Ahmed, A.

    2015-01-01

    To compare efficacy and discomfort in posterior nasal packing with Foley's catheters versus BIPP gauze packing in cases of posterior epistaxis. Study Design: Randomized controlled trial. Place and Duration of Study: Combined Military Hospital (CMH) Kharian from October 2011 to October 2013. Material and Methods: A total of 206 patients of posterior epistaxis were included in the study through non-probability convenience sampling and randomly divided in two groups of 103 each. In group A patients were treated by posterior nasal packing with Foley's catheter and in group B patients were treated by posterior nasal packing with BIPP gauze and results in terms of control of epistaxis and discomfort during pack insertion, while the packs were in situ and pack removal, based on VAS (Visual Analogue Scale) were observed. Results: Average age in group A was 52.64 years (SD=9.57) and in group B it was 50.27 years (SD ± 10.13). There were 71 (68.9%) males in group A while 67 (65%) males in group B. During posterior nasal pack insertion, the mean pain score in Group A was 6.21 (SD ± I.13) and in Group B was 7.43 (SD ± 1.19). The mean pain score with the pack in situ was 4.27 (SD ± 0.08) in Group A versus 4.76 (SD ± 0.09) Group B. Similarly pack removal was also more painful in group B than group A (6.14 ± 0.91 vs 6.89 ± 1.09) (p =0.000). In the group A, 31 (30.1%) patients had rebleeding after pack removal, out of which 9 (8.7%) had significant bleeding requiring repacking. In 22 (21.4%) cases there was mild bleeding which settled without repacking. In group B 22 (21.4%) patients had rebleeding after pack removal, out of which 5 (4.7%) had significant bleeding requiring repacking. Conclusion: It is concluded that posterior nasal packing with BIPP gauze pack is effective for controlling posterior epistaxis but causes more discomfort to the patients as compared to Foley's catheter packing. (author)

  2. Imaging findings in posterior instability of the shoulder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harish, Srinivasan; Rebello, Ryan; O'Neill, John; Nagar, Arpit; Moro, Jaydeep; Pugh, David

    2008-01-01

    Posterior shoulder instability refers to the symptoms and signs resulting from excessive posterior translation of the humerus. Magnetic resonance (MR) imaging is the radiological modality of choice in the diagnostic assessment of posterior instability. Computed tomography (CT) is useful in the evaluation of osseous abnormalities associated with posterior instability. A detailed description of the posterior osseous and labroligamentous abnormalities has evolved recently, and many variant lesions of the posteroinferior labrum and/or capsular structures have been described. As the recommended surgical management of lesions associated with posterior instability is a lesion-specific approach, awareness of the specific lesions that have been described in association with posterior instability helps in pre-surgical planning. The purpose of this article is to review the classification of, and injury mechanisms leading to, posterior shoulder instability and to describe imaging findings associated with posterior instability, with emphasis on MR imaging. (orig.)

  3. Imaging findings in posterior instability of the shoulder

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harish, Srinivasan; Rebello, Ryan; O' Neill, John [St. Joseph' s Healthcare, Department of Diagnostic Imaging, Hamilton, ON (Canada); McMaster University, Faculty of Health Sciences, Hamilton (Canada); Nagar, Arpit [St. Joseph' s Healthcare, Department of Diagnostic Imaging, Hamilton, ON (Canada); Moro, Jaydeep [St. Joseph' s Healthcare, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Hamilton, ON (Canada); McMaster University, Faculty of Health Sciences, Hamilton (Canada); Pugh, David [Brantford General Hospital, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Brantford, ON (Canada)

    2008-08-15

    Posterior shoulder instability refers to the symptoms and signs resulting from excessive posterior translation of the humerus. Magnetic resonance (MR) imaging is the radiological modality of choice in the diagnostic assessment of posterior instability. Computed tomography (CT) is useful in the evaluation of osseous abnormalities associated with posterior instability. A detailed description of the posterior osseous and labroligamentous abnormalities has evolved recently, and many variant lesions of the posteroinferior labrum and/or capsular structures have been described. As the recommended surgical management of lesions associated with posterior instability is a lesion-specific approach, awareness of the specific lesions that have been described in association with posterior instability helps in pre-surgical planning. The purpose of this article is to review the classification of, and injury mechanisms leading to, posterior shoulder instability and to describe imaging findings associated with posterior instability, with emphasis on MR imaging. (orig.)

  4. Endoscopic repair of post-traumatic fistulae of posterior urethra using hyaluronic acid dextranomer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appignani, Antonino; Bertozzi, Mirko; Prestipino, Marco

    2010-07-01

    Many surgical approaches to posterior urethral diseases are reported in published data. The authors report a case of a patient with prostatic urethral post-traumatic fistulae, probably developed from an abscess that developed after a surgical intervention to correct a pubic symphysis fracture. The fistulae were repaired with an unusual mininvasive endourologic procedure, using the hyaluronic acid dextranomer, which is commonly used in vesicoureteral reflux treatment. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Dworsky, Lawrence N

    2008-01-01

    An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

  6. Alteraciones del polo posterior en la miopía degenerativa Alterations of the posterior pole in degenerative myopia patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzel Ivón Lapido Polanco

    2012-12-01

    . Posterior staphyloma was found among the typical lesions of high myopia, associated with patchy or diffuse chorioretinal atrophy, lacker cracks, choroidal neovascular membranes and macular hemorrhages secondary to them or stemmed from choroidal neovascular membranes. More accurate diagnosis of foveoschisis, macular holes, and more recently dome-shaped macula has been achieved with optical coherence tomography. The degenerative changes of posterior pole seem to be associated each other, but pathogenesis of myopic retinopathy has not been clearly stated, despite the recent technological advances.

  7. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  8. Posterior Mediastinal Tumors: Outcome of Surgery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abd Rahman, A.M.; Sedera, M.A.; Mourad, I.A.; Aziz, S.A.; Saber, T.K.H.; Al Sakary, M.A.

    2005-01-01

    The incidence of posterior mediastinal tumors relative to all tumors of the mediastinum is 23% to 30%. The posterior mediastinum is a potential space along each side of the vertebral column and adjacent proximal portion of the ribs. Primary tumors of posterior mediastinum are usually neurogenic. The aim of this study was to evaluate different surgical approaches used for the resection of posterior mediastinal tumors, and to assess morbidity, mortality and patients survival. Patients and Methods: Between January 200 I and January 2004, 30 patients with posterior mediastinal tumors were included. CT scan of the chest and CT guided biopsy were done for all patients; whereas MRI was done for suspected intraspinal extension. Posterolateral thoracotomy was the approach used in most of the patients. The Akwari approach was used in most of the patients with Dumbbell tumors. Neurogenic tumors constituted 67% of cases, being neuroblastoma in 60%. The non neurogenic tumors included a heterogenous group of rare tumors (n=10). Dumbbell tumors were found in 10 patients. Neuroblastoma was the commonest tumor to cause intraspinal extension (40%). Wide local excision was done in 13 patients; whereas extended resection was done in the remaining 17 patients. The mean intra-operative blood loss was 800cc and the mean hospital stay was 12 days. The size of the resected tumor ranged from 3X4cm to 30X22cm, 80% of tumors were malignant. Morbidity in relation to the procedures developed in 8 patients (atelectasis, meningitis, paraplegia, Horner syndrome and mild wound sepsis in 4, I, I, 1 and I of the patients; respectively). One postoperative mortality, due to meningitis was recorded. The overall survival by the end of three years was 87.7% with a mean survival of 30.4 months. The overall disease free survival was 55.9% with a mean disease free survival of 26.2 months. Posterior mediastinal tumors may reach large size before becoming symptomatic. Complete surgical excision (including

  9. Detection of posterior vortex veins in eyes with pathologic myopia by ultra-widefield indocyanine green angiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moriyama, Muka; Cao, Kejia; Ogata, Satoko; Ohno-Matsui, Kyoko

    2017-09-01

    To analyse the characteristics of posterior vortex veins detected in highly myopic eyes by wide-field indocyanine green angiography (ICGA). One hundred and fifty-eight consecutive patients (302 eyes) with high myopia (myopic refractive error >8.0 dioptres (D) or axial length ≥26.5 mm) were studied. Wide-field ICGA was performed with the Spectralis HRA module. Posterior vortex veins were found in 80 eyes (26%). The prevalence of posterior staphyloma was significantly higher in eyes in which posterior vortex vein was detected than in eyes without posterior vortex vein. The posterior vortex veins were classified into five types according to the site of exit from the eye; around the optic nerve in 28%, in the macular area in 17%, along the border of staphyloma in 6%, along the margin of macular atrophy or large peripapillary conus in 21%, and elsewhere in 28%. In one eye, two posterior vortex veins collected the choroidal venous blood from the entire fundus. Wide-field ICGA can analyse the characteristic features of choroidal blood outflow system through posterior vortex veins in highly myopic eyes. They may play an important role as routes of choroidal outflow in highly myopic eyes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  10. Posterior Pole Sparing Laser Photocoagulation Combined with Intravitreal Bevacizumab Injection in Posterior Retinopathy of Prematurity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To report the results of the posterior pole sparing laser photocoagulation combined with intravitreal bevacizumab injection (IVB in retinopathy of prematurity (ROP. Methods. A retrospective chart review of premature babies with ROP, all of whom received laser photocoagulation with IVB. Eleven eyes of 6 infants with advanced zone I ROP underwent laser ablation sparing posterior pole with concurrent IVB. The results were compared with those of full-laser treatment combined with IVB to 8 eyes of 5 infants with advanced ROP without involvement of the posterior pole. Results. The posterior pole sparing laser with IVB was performed with zone I, stage 3+ ROP at the mean postmenstrual age of 36 weeks and 5 days. The plus sign decreased significantly at postoperative day 1, the neovascular proliferation regressed by postoperative week 1, and the normal vascularization started at postoperative day 32 on the average. Two months after treatment, vascularization of the spared avascular area was completed. There was no macular dragging, tractional retinal detachment, foveal destruction by laser scars, or any other adverse event. No significant anatomical differences were identified from those of full-laser ablation combined with IVB. Conclusions. Posterior pole sparing laser with IVB can give favorable results without destruction of posterior pole retina.

  11. The probability of object-scene co-occurrence influences object identification processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauvé, Geneviève; Harmand, Mariane; Vanni, Léa; Brodeur, Mathieu B

    2017-07-01

    Contextual information allows the human brain to make predictions about the identity of objects that might be seen and irregularities between an object and its background slow down perception and identification processes. Bar and colleagues modeled the mechanisms underlying this beneficial effect suggesting that the brain stocks information about the statistical regularities of object and scene co-occurrence. Their model suggests that these recurring regularities could be conceptualized along a continuum in which the probability of seeing an object within a given scene can be high (probable condition), moderate (improbable condition) or null (impossible condition). In the present experiment, we propose to disentangle the electrophysiological correlates of these context effects by directly comparing object-scene pairs found along this continuum. We recorded the event-related potentials of 30 healthy participants (18-34 years old) and analyzed their brain activity in three time windows associated with context effects. We observed anterior negativities between 250 and 500 ms after object onset for the improbable and impossible conditions (improbable more negative than impossible) compared to the probable condition as well as a parieto-occipital positivity (improbable more positive than impossible). The brain may use different processing pathways to identify objects depending on whether the probability of co-occurrence with the scene is moderate (rely more on top-down effects) or null (rely more on bottom-up influences). The posterior positivity could index error monitoring aimed to ensure that no false information is integrated into mental representations of the world.

  12. Probability theory a foundational course

    CERN Document Server

    Pakshirajan, R P

    2013-01-01

    This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.

  13. Approximation methods in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Čekanavičius, Vydas

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.

  14. Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

  15. Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)

    2002-01-01

    When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.

  16. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2011-01-01

    A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d

  17. Statistical probability tables CALENDF program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribon, P.

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of the probability tables is: - to obtain dense data representation - to calculate integrals by quadratures. They are mainly used in the USA for calculations by Monte Carlo and in the USSR and Europe for self-shielding calculations by the sub-group method. The moment probability tables, in addition to providing a more substantial mathematical basis and calculation methods, are adapted for condensation and mixture calculations, which are the crucial operations for reactor physics specialists. However, their extension is limited by the statistical hypothesis they imply. Efforts are being made to remove this obstacle, at the cost, it must be said, of greater complexity

  18. Probability, statistics, and queueing theory

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Arnold O

    1990-01-01

    This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit

  19. Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits...... in these respects. Interviews with Nick Bingham, Luc Bovens, Terrence L. Fine, Haim Gaifman, Donald Gillies, James Hawthorne, Carl Hoefer, James M. Joyce, Joseph B. Kadane Isaac Levi, D.H. Mellor, Patrick Suppes, Jan von Plato, Carl Wagner, Sandy Zabell...

  20. Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome: A case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostić Dejan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES is characterized by the following symptoms: seizures, impaired consciousness and/or vision, vomiting, nausea, and focal neurological signs. Diagnostic imaging includes examination by magnetic resonance (MR and computed tomography (CT, where brain edema is visualized bi-laterally and symmetrically, predominantly posteriorly, parietally, and occipitally. Case report. We presented a 73-year-old patient with the years-long medical history of hipertension and renal insufficiency, who developed PRES with the symptomatology of the rear cranium. CT and MR verified changes in the white matter involving all lobes on both sides of the brain. After a two-week treatment (antihypertensive, hypolipemic and rehydration therapy clinical improvement with no complications occurred, with complete resolution of changes in the white matter observed on CT and MR. Conclusion. PRES is a reversible syndrome in which the symptoms withdraw after several days to several weeks if early diagnosis is made and appropriate treatment started without delay.

  1. Visual Dysfunction in Posterior Cortical Atrophy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maia da Silva, Mari N.; Millington, Rebecca S.; Bridge, Holly; James-Galton, Merle; Plant, Gordon T.

    2017-01-01

    Posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) is a syndromic diagnosis. It is characterized by progressive impairment of higher (cortical) visual function with imaging evidence of degeneration affecting the occipital, parietal, and posterior temporal lobes bilaterally. Most cases will prove to have Alzheimer pathology. The aim of this review is to summarize the development of the concept of this disorder since it was first introduced. A critical discussion of the evolving diagnostic criteria is presented and the differential diagnosis with regard to the underlying pathology is reviewed. Emphasis is given to the visual dysfunction that defines the disorder, and the classical deficits, such as simultanagnosia and visual agnosia, as well as the more recently recognized visual field defects, are reviewed, along with the evidence on their neural correlates. The latest developments on the imaging of PCA are summarized, with special attention to its role on the differential diagnosis with related conditions. PMID:28861031

  2. Shining a light on posterior cortical atrophy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crutch, Sebastian J; Schott, Jonathan M; Rabinovici, Gil D; Boeve, Bradley F; Cappa, Stefano F; Dickerson, Bradford C; Dubois, Bruno; Graff-Radford, Neill R; Krolak-Salmon, Pierre; Lehmann, Manja; Mendez, Mario F; Pijnenburg, Yolande; Ryan, Natalie S; Scheltens, Philip; Shakespeare, Tim; Tang-Wai, David F; van der Flier, Wiesje M; Bain, Lisa; Carrillo, Maria C; Fox, Nick C

    2013-07-01

    Posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) is a clinicoradiologic syndrome characterized by progressive decline in visual processing skills, relatively intact memory and language in the early stages, and atrophy of posterior brain regions. Misdiagnosis of PCA is common, owing not only to its relative rarity and unusual and variable presentation, but also because patients frequently first seek the opinion of an ophthalmologist, who may note normal eye examinations by their usual tests but may not appreciate cortical brain dysfunction. Seeking to raise awareness of the disease, stimulate research, and promote collaboration, a multidisciplinary group of PCA research clinicians formed an international working party, which had its first face-to-face meeting on July 13, 2012 in Vancouver, Canada, prior to the Alzheimer's Association International Conference. Copyright © 2013 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Visual Dysfunction in Posterior Cortical Atrophy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mari N. Maia da Silva

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Posterior cortical atrophy (PCA is a syndromic diagnosis. It is characterized by progressive impairment of higher (cortical visual function with imaging evidence of degeneration affecting the occipital, parietal, and posterior temporal lobes bilaterally. Most cases will prove to have Alzheimer pathology. The aim of this review is to summarize the development of the concept of this disorder since it was first introduced. A critical discussion of the evolving diagnostic criteria is presented and the differential diagnosis with regard to the underlying pathology is reviewed. Emphasis is given to the visual dysfunction that defines the disorder, and the classical deficits, such as simultanagnosia and visual agnosia, as well as the more recently recognized visual field defects, are reviewed, along with the evidence on their neural correlates. The latest developments on the imaging of PCA are summarized, with special attention to its role on the differential diagnosis with related conditions.

  4. Posterior sternoclavicular dislocation: an American football injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marker, L B; Klareskov, B

    1996-01-01

    Posterior dislocation of the sternoclavicular joint is uncommon, accounting for less than 0.1% of all dislocations. Since 1824 a little more than 100 cases have been reported, and the majority in the past 20 years. A review of published reports suggests that this injury is seen particularly in co...... in connection with American football. A typical case is described. The importance of this injury is that there is often a delay in diagnosis with potentially serious complications....

  5. Complications in posterior lumbar interbody fusion

    OpenAIRE

    Kreuzer, Rolf-Peter

    2010-01-01

    From 1993 to 2000, 220 consecutive patients with unstable degenerative spondylolisthesis were studied after posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF) using different types of grafts and pedicle screw systems. In a retrospective review the author detail the associated complications and their correlation with perioperative factors. The causes, strategies for their avoidance, and the clinical course of these complications are also disscused. The study group was composed of 136 women and 84 men...

  6. Reversible Posterior Leukoencephalopathy Syndrome Induced by Pazopanib

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chelis Leonidas

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome is a clinical/radiological syndrome characterized by headache, seizures, impaired vision, acute hypertension, and typical magnetic resonance imaging findings. There are several reports in the literature that depict its occurrence in cancer patients. The list of common anticancer and supportive care drugs that predispose to reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome is expanding and includes not only a large number of chemotherapeutic agents but also an increased number of new targeted drugs, particularly angiogenesis inhibitors such as bevacizumab,sorefenib and sunitinib. Pazopanib is an oral tyrosine kinase inhibitor targeting vascular endothelial growth factor receptor, platelet-derived growth factor receptor, and c-Kit which after a positive phase III randomized clinical trial in patients with advanced renal cell cancer received FDA approval for the treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma. Until now no cases of reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome induced by pazopanib have been reported. Case report We present the case of a 40 years old female patient with heavily pre-treated metastatic renal cell carcinoma who received pazopanib as salvage treatment. After 21 days of pazopanib therapy the patient referred to the emergency department with epileptic seizure, impaired vision at both eyes and headache. MRI of the brain revealed subcortical oedema at the occipital and parietal lobes bilaterally. She was treated with anticonvulsants, i.v. administration of mannitol and antihypertensives and she recovered completely from her symptoms and was discharged on the tenth hospital day. A brain MRI performed 3 weeks after showed that the subcortical oedema had been subsided. Conclusion In conclusion this is the first case of pazopanib induced reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome. Although usually reversible, this syndrome is a serious and

  7. Cervical disc hernia operations through posterior laminoforaminotomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yolas, Coskun; Ozdemir, Nuriye Guzin; Okay, Hilmi Onder; Kanat, Ayhan; Senol, Mehmet; Atci, Ibrahim Burak; Yilmaz, Hakan; Coban, Mustafa Kemal; Yuksel, Mehmet Onur; Kahraman, Umit

    2016-01-01

    The most common used technique for posterolateral cervical disc herniations is anterior approach. However, posterior cervical laminotoforaminomy can provide excellent results in appropriately selected patients with foraminal stenosis in either soft disc prolapse or cervical spondylosis. The purpose of this study was to present the clinical outcomes following posterior laminoforaminotomy in patients with radiculopathy. We retrospectively evaluated 35 patients diagnosed with posterolateral cervical disc herniation and cervical spondylosis with foraminal stenosis causing radiculopathy operated by the posterior cervical keyhole laminoforaminotomy between the years 2010 and 2015. The file records and the radiographic images of the 35 patients were assessed retrospectively. The mean age was 46.4 years (range: 34-66 years). Of the patients, 19 were males and 16 were females. In all of the patients, the neurologic deficit observed was radiculopathy. The posterolaterally localized disc herniations and the osteophytic structures were on the left side in 18 cases and on the right in 17 cases. In 10 of the patients, the disc level was at C5-6, in 18 at C6-7, in 2 at C3-4, in 2 at C4-5, in 1 at C7-T1, in 1 patient at both C5-6 and C6-7, and in 1 at both C4-5 and C5-6. In 14 of these 35 patients, both osteophytic structures and protruded disc herniation were present. Intervertebral foramen stenosis was present in all of the patients with osteophytes. Postoperatively, in 31 patients the complaints were relieved completely and four patients had complaints of neck pain and paresthesia radiating to the arm (the success of operation was 88.5%). On control examinations, there was no finding of instability or cervical kyphosis. Posterior cervical laminoforaminotomy is an alternative appropriate choice in both cervical soft disc herniations and cervical stenosis.

  8. Cervical disc hernia operations through posterior laminoforaminotomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coskun Yolas

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The most common used technique for posterolateral cervical disc herniations is anterior approach. However, posterior cervical laminotoforaminomy can provide excellent results in appropriately selected patients with foraminal stenosis in either soft disc prolapse or cervical spondylosis. The purpose of this study was to present the clinical outcomes following posterior laminoforaminotomy in patients with radiculopathy. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 35 patients diagnosed with posterolateral cervical disc herniation and cervical spondylosis with foraminal stenosis causing radiculopathy operated by the posterior cervical keyhole laminoforaminotomy between the years 2010 and 2015. Results: The file records and the radiographic images of the 35 patients were assessed retrospectively. The mean age was 46.4 years (range: 34-66 years. Of the patients, 19 were males and 16 were females. In all of the patients, the neurologic deficit observed was radiculopathy. The posterolaterally localized disc herniations and the osteophytic structures were on the left side in 18 cases and on the right in 17 cases. In 10 of the patients, the disc level was at C5-6, in 18 at C6-7, in 2 at C3-4, in 2 at C4-5, in 1 at C7-T1, in 1 patient at both C5-6 and C6-7, and in 1 at both C4-5 and C5-6. In 14 of these 35 patients, both osteophytic structures and protruded disc herniation were present. Intervertebral foramen stenosis was present in all of the patients with osteophytes. Postoperatively, in 31 patients the complaints were relieved completely and four patients had complaints of neck pain and paresthesia radiating to the arm (the success of operation was 88.5%. On control examinations, there was no finding of instability or cervical kyphosis. Conclusion: Posterior cervical laminoforaminotomy is an alternative appropriate choice in both cervical soft disc herniations and cervical stenosis.

  9. Primary posterior perineal herniation of urinary bladder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurumboor Prakash

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Primary perineal hernia is a rare clinical condition wherein herniation of viscera occurs through pelvic diaphragm. They are usually mistaken for sciatic hernia, rectal prolapse or other diseases in the perineum. Correct identification of the type of hernia by imaging is crucial for planning treatment. We present a case of primary posterior herniation of urinary bladder and rectal wall through levator ani repaired laparoscopically using a mesh repair.

  10. Posterior midline cervical fetal cystic hygroma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oak S

    1992-04-01

    Full Text Available Posterior midline cervical cystic hygromas (PMC are frequently found associated with chromosomal aberrations and usually do not survive. The present report illustrates diagnosis of this condition by sonography in an 18 weeks old fetus and an amniocentesis revealed 45 x0 karyotype and increased concentration of alpha-fetoproteins. Pregnancy was terminated in view of Turner′s syndrome. The etiology and natural history of the condition is reviewed.

  11. Reversible Posterior Leukoencephalopathy Syndrome Induced by Pazopanib

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chelis, Leonidas; Kakolyris, Stylianos; Souftas, Vasilios; Amarantidis, Kiriakos; Xenidis, Nikolaos; Chamalidou, Eleni; Dimopoulos, Prokopios; Michailidis, Prodromos; Christakidis, Evagelos; Prassopoulos, Panagiotis

    2012-01-01

    The reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome is a clinical/radiological syndrome characterized by headache, seizures, impaired vision, acute hypertension, and typical magnetic resonance imaging findings. There are several reports in the literature that depict its occurrence in cancer patients. The list of common anticancer and supportive care drugs that predispose to reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome is expanding and includes not only a large number of chemotherapeutic agents but also an increased number of new targeted drugs, particularly angiogenesis inhibitors such as bevacizumab,sorefenib and sunitinib. Pazopanib is an oral tyrosine kinase inhibitor targeting vascular endothelial growth factor receptor, platelet-derived growth factor receptor, and c-Kit which after a positive phase III randomized clinical trial in patients with advanced renal cell cancer received FDA approval for the treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma. Until now no cases of reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome induced by pazopanib have been reported. We present the case of a 40 years old female patient with heavily pre-treated metastatic renal cell carcinoma who received pazopanib as salvage treatment. After 21 days of pazopanib therapy the patient referred to the emergency department with epileptic seizure, impaired vision at both eyes and headache. MRI of the brain revealed subcortical oedema at the occipital and parietal lobes bilaterally. She was treated with anticonvulsants, i.v. administration of mannitol and antihypertensives and she recovered completely from her symptoms and was discharged on the tenth hospital day. A brain MRI performed 3 weeks after showed that the subcortical oedema had been subsided. In conclusion this is the first case of pazopanib induced reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome. Although usually reversible, this syndrome is a serious and potentially life threatening adverse effect, if untreated, that should

  12. Cyclosporine-related reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy: MRI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jarosz, J.M.; Howlett, D.C.; Cox, T.C.S.; Bingham, J.B.

    1997-01-01

    Three patients aged 48, 11 and 40 years, two of whom were recent recipients of renal transplants and one of a bone marrow transplant, developed seizures, with cortical blindness in two cases. All were immunosuppressed with cyclosporine and were hypertensive at the onset of symptoms. MRI showed predominantly posterior signal changes in all three cases. The abnormalities were more conspicuous on fast FLAIR images than on conventional T2-weighted spin-echo images. (orig.). With 4 figs

  13. Radiation retinopathy following treatment of posterior nasal space carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, G.M.; Migdal, C.S.; Whittle, R.J.M.

    1983-01-01

    Posterior nasal space carcinoma has a high mortality and most patents are treated with radiotherapy. Radiation retinopathy was encountered in 7 out of 10 survivors included in this study. Five of the affected patients lost vision as a result of the retinopathy. One patient required laser photocoagulation and responded well to this treatment. There was a variation in the severity of the retinopathy among the patients studied despite the fact that all patients received a similar dose of radiotherapy. We suspect that previously unrecognised factors in the planning of radiotherapy fields may explain this difference. (author)

  14. Management of Posterior Urethral Valves in Rural Kenya

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Management of Posterior Urethral Valves in Rural. Kenya .... Antwi S. Audit of Posterior Urethral Valve (PUV) in Children at ... Community Paediatrics Committee, Infectious. Diseases ... Effect of Circumcision on Risk of Urinary Tract. Infection in ...

  15. Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

    2015-10-01

    The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

  16. Conditional Independence in Applied Probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, Paul E.

    This material assumes the user has the background provided by a good undergraduate course in applied probability. It is felt that introductory courses in calculus, linear algebra, and perhaps some differential equations should provide the requisite experience and proficiency with mathematical concepts, notation, and argument. The document is…

  17. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  18. GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Mike

    2012-01-01

    It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…

  19. Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slunga, R.

    1979-03-01

    A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)

  20. DECOFF Probabilities of Failed Operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas

    2015-01-01

    A statistical procedure of estimation of Probabilities of Failed Operations is described and exemplified using ECMWF weather forecasts and SIMO output from Rotor Lift test case models. Also safety factor influence is investigated. DECOFF statistical method is benchmarked against standard Alpha-factor...

  1. Risk estimation using probability machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  2. Probability and statistics: A reminder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clement, B.

    2013-01-01

    The main purpose of these lectures is to provide the reader with the tools needed to data analysis in the framework of physics experiments. Basic concepts are introduced together with examples of application in experimental physics. The lecture is divided into two parts: probability and statistics. It is build on the introduction from 'data analysis in experimental sciences' given in [1]. (authors)

  3. Nash equilibrium with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groes, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1998-01-01

    We generalize the concept of Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies for strategic form games to allow for ambiguity in the players' expectations. In contrast to other contributions, we model ambiguity by means of so-called lower probability measures or belief functions, which makes it possible...

  4. On probability-possibility transformations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad

    1992-01-01

    Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.

  5. Isolated transient vertigo: posterior circulation ischemia or benign origin?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blasberg, Tobias F; Wolf, Lea; Henke, Christian; Lorenz, Matthias W

    2017-06-14

    Isolated transient vertigo can be the only symptom of posterior circulation ischemia. Thus, it is important to differentiate isolated vertigo of a cerebrovascular origin from that of more benign origins, as patients with cerebral ischemia have a much higher risk for future stroke than do those with 'peripheral' vertigo. The current study aims to identify risk factors for cerebrovascular origin of isolated transient vertigo, and for future cerebrovascular events. From the files of 339 outpatients with isolated transient vertigo we extracted history, clinical and technical findings, diagnosis, and follow-up information on subsequent stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). Risk factors were analyzed using multivariate regression models (logistic or Cox) and reconfirmed in univariate analyses. On first presentation, 48 (14.2%) patients received the diagnosis 'probable or definite cerebrovascular vertigo'. During follow-up, 41 patients suffered stroke or TIA (event rate 7.9 per 100 person years, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.5-10.4), 26 in the posterior circulation (event rate 4.8 per 100 person years, 95% CI 3.0-6.7). The diagnosis was not associated with follow-up cerebrovascular events. In multivariate models testing multiple potential determinants, only the presentation mode was consistently associated with the diagnosis and stroke risk: patients who presented because of vertigo (rather than reporting vertigo when they presented for other reasons) had a significantly higher risk for future stroke or TIA (p = 0.028, event rate 13.4 vs. 5.4 per 100 person years) and for future posterior circulation stroke or TIA (p = 0.044, event rate 7.8 vs. 3.5 per 100 person years). We here report for the first time follow-up stroke rates in patients with transient isolated vertigo. In such patients, the identification of those with cerebrovascular origin remains difficult, and presentation mode was found to be the only consistent risk factor. Confirmation in an independent

  6. Convergence of posteriors for discretized log Gaussian Cox processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge

    2004-01-01

    In Markov chain Monte Carlo posterior computation for log Gaussian Cox processes (LGCPs) a discretization of the continuously indexed Gaussian field is required. It is demonstrated that approximate posterior expectations computed from discretized LGCPs converge to the exact posterior expectations...... when the cell sizes of the discretization tends to zero. The effect of discretization is studied in a data example....

  7. The isolated posterior malleolar fracture and syndesmotic instability: A case report and review of the literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diederik P.J. Smeeing

    Full Text Available Introduction: Ankle fractures are among the most common type of fractures in the lower extremity. A posterior malleolar fracture is frequently part of a more complex ankle fracture and only in rare cases it occurs as isolated injury. Posterior malleolar fractures often occur with associated injuries, such as a Maisonneuve fracture or with bi- or trimalleolar ligamentous injuries. Knowledge about these associated injuries is essential to prevent missed diagnoses. The aim of this article is to describe the isolated posterior malleolar fracture, the possible associated injuries, the diagnostic work-up and therapeutic consequences. Presentation of case: We present a case of a 26-year-old male patient who sustained an isolated posterior malleolar fracture with 4.5 years follow-up. Discussion: Isolated fractures of the posterior malleolus are uncommon injuries. Diagnosis, treatment and outcome can seldom be extracted from large series. However, several cases have been described in literature, which we have summarized. Conclusion: This case report and literature review shows that isolated posterior malleolar fractures might occur as part of a more complex ankle injury, in combination with a fracture of the lower leg or after high energy trauma. Physicians should be aware of these associated injuries. Diagnostic work-up should include X-rays of the knee and lower leg and a CT scan of the ankle. If diagnosed and treated properly, isolated posterior malleolar fractures have a good long-term functional outcome. Keywords: Ankle fracture, Earle’s fracture, Syndesmotic fixation, Unimalleolar fracture, Volkmann’s fracture, Posterior malleolar fracture

  8. MRI features of posterior ankle impingement syndrome in ballet dancers: a review of 25 cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peace, K.A.L. E-mail: kalpeace@hotmail.com; Hillier, J.C.; Hulme, A.; Healy, J.C

    2004-11-01

    AIM: To describe the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features of posterior ankle impingement syndrome (PAIS) in classical ballet dancers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective review was undertaken of 25 MRI examinations of the ankle performed on 23 ballet dancers over a 26-month period. Images were examined for the presence of osseous and soft-tissue anatomical variants at the posterior ankle and imaging signs of PAIS. All patients presented with symptoms and signs suggestive of PAIS including posterior ankle pain, swelling and stiffness during plantar flexion. RESULTS: Anatomical variants predisposing to PAIS including as os trigonum and tuberosity arising from the superior calcaneum were clearly depicted. The most common imaging feature of PAIS in our series was high T2 signal posterior to the talocalcaneal joint indicating synovitis (n=25). Thickening of the posterior capsule (n=13) and tenosynovitis of flexor hallucis longus (n=17) were also common. An os trigonum was an infrequent finding (n=7). Bone marrow oedema, commonly in the posterior talus (n=10) or in a patchy distribution (n=10) was often noted. CONCLUSION: MRI is a useful diagnostic tool in PAIS, and in the present series, clearly demonstrates the anatomical variants and range of osseous and soft-tissue abnormalities associated with this condition. Prospective studies are needed to understand the significance and importance of individual MRI findings in producing the symptoms of PAIS.

  9. Blunt pediatric anterior and posterior urethral trauma: 32-year experience and outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voelzke, Bryan B; Breyer, Benjamin N; McAninch, Jack W

    2012-06-01

    To analyze our experience with delayed repair of pediatric urethral trauma. From 1978 to 2007, 26 boys posterior urethral injuries were separately stratified. There were 8 anterior and 18 posterior urethral strictures. All patients presented in a delayed fashion. Mean follow up of the anterior cohort was 2.9 years. All repairs were performed via a ventral onlay buccal graft or anastomotic approach. The mean follow up of the posterior cohort was 1.1 years, and all posterior urethral injuries were repaired via an anastomotic approach. Overall success for anterior stricture disease was 88.9% and for posterior stricture disease was 89.5%. All three urethroplasty failures responded favorably to internal urethrotomy; however, one failed anterior repair and one of the two failed posterior repairs required two internal urethrotomy operations for success. No secondary urethroplasty operations were required and ultimately all patients were voiding per urethra without need for urethral dilation. Delayed, definitive repair of pediatric urethral trauma via open urethroplasty has a high success rate. Copyright © 2011 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. MRI features of posterior ankle impingement syndrome in ballet dancers: a review of 25 cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peace, K.A.L.; Hillier, J.C.; Hulme, A.; Healy, J.C.

    2004-01-01

    AIM: To describe the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features of posterior ankle impingement syndrome (PAIS) in classical ballet dancers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective review was undertaken of 25 MRI examinations of the ankle performed on 23 ballet dancers over a 26-month period. Images were examined for the presence of osseous and soft-tissue anatomical variants at the posterior ankle and imaging signs of PAIS. All patients presented with symptoms and signs suggestive of PAIS including posterior ankle pain, swelling and stiffness during plantar flexion. RESULTS: Anatomical variants predisposing to PAIS including as os trigonum and tuberosity arising from the superior calcaneum were clearly depicted. The most common imaging feature of PAIS in our series was high T2 signal posterior to the talocalcaneal joint indicating synovitis (n=25). Thickening of the posterior capsule (n=13) and tenosynovitis of flexor hallucis longus (n=17) were also common. An os trigonum was an infrequent finding (n=7). Bone marrow oedema, commonly in the posterior talus (n=10) or in a patchy distribution (n=10) was often noted. CONCLUSION: MRI is a useful diagnostic tool in PAIS, and in the present series, clearly demonstrates the anatomical variants and range of osseous and soft-tissue abnormalities associated with this condition. Prospective studies are needed to understand the significance and importance of individual MRI findings in producing the symptoms of PAIS

  11. Posterior epidural disc fragment masquerading as spinal tumor: Review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Taejune; Lee, Ho Jun; Kim, Jae Seong; Nam, Kiyeun

    2018-03-09

    Posterior epidural lumbar disc fragment is infrequent because of anatomical barriers, and it is difficult to diagnose posterior epidural lumbar disc fragment because of its rare incidence and the ambiguity of radiologic evaluations. And it is difficult to differentiate it from other diseases such as spinal tumors. Differential diagnosis of posterior epidural lumbar disc fragment is clinically important because its diagnosis can affect treatment and prognosis. To investigate the incidence, anatomical concern, etiology, symptom, diagnostic tool, management and prognosis of posterior epidural lumbar disc fragment, we reviewed articles including case report. We performed a search of all clinical studies of posterior epidural lumbar disc fragment published to date. The following keywords were searched: Posterior epidural lumbar disc fragment, disc migration, posterior epidural disc, extradural migration, dorsal epidural migration, sequestrated disc, and disc fragment. We identified 40 patients of posterior epidural lumbar disc fragment from 28 studies. The most common presentation of posterior epidural lumbar disc fragment was sudden onset radiculopathy (70.0%), followed by cauda equina syndrome (27.5%). The most frequently used diagnostic modality was magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), conducted in 36 cases (90.0%), and followed by computed tomography in 14 cases (35.0%). After the imaging studies, the preoperative diagnoses were 45.0% masses, 20.0% lesions, and 12.5% tumors. Characteristic MRI findings in posterior epidural lumbar disc fragment are helpful for diagnosis; it typically displays low signals on T1-weighted images and high signals on T2-weighted images with respect to the parent disc. In addition, most of the disc fragments show peripheral rim enhancement on MRI with gadolinium administration. Electrodiagnostic testing is useful for verifying nerve damage. Surgical treatment was performed in all cases, and neurologic complications were observed in 12.5%. As

  12. Probability shapes perceptual precision: A study in orientation estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabar, Syaheed B; Anderson, Britt

    2015-12-01

    Probability is known to affect perceptual estimations, but an understanding of mechanisms is lacking. Moving beyond binary classification tasks, we had naive participants report the orientation of briefly viewed gratings where we systematically manipulated contingent probability. Participants rapidly developed faster and more precise estimations for high-probability tilts. The shapes of their error distributions, as indexed by a kurtosis measure, also showed a distortion from Gaussian. This kurtosis metric was robust, capturing probability effects that were graded, contextual, and varying as a function of stimulus orientation. Our data can be understood as a probability-induced reduction in the variability or "shape" of estimation errors, as would be expected if probability affects the perceptual representations. As probability manipulations are an implicit component of many endogenous cuing paradigms, changes at the perceptual level could account for changes in performance that might have traditionally been ascribed to "attention." (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Probability of collective excited state decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manykin, Eh.A.; Ozhovan, M.I.; Poluehktov, P.P.

    1987-01-01

    Decay mechanisms of condensed excited state formed of highly excited (Rydberg) atoms are considered, i.e. stability of so-called Rydberg substance is analyzed. It is shown that Auger recombination and radiation transitions are the basic processes. The corresponding probabilities are calculated and compared. It is ascertained that the ''Rydberg substance'' possesses macroscopic lifetime (several seconds) and in a sense it is metastable

  14. Probability and statistics in particle physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frodesen, A.G.; Skjeggestad, O.

    1979-01-01

    Probability theory is entered into at an elementary level and given a simple and detailed exposition. The material on statistics has been organised with an eye to the experimental physicist's practical need, which is likely to be statistical methods for estimation or decision-making. The book is intended for graduate students and research workers in experimental high energy and elementary particle physics, and numerous examples from these fields are presented. (JIW)

  15. Large deviations and idempotent probability

    CERN Document Server

    Puhalskii, Anatolii

    2001-01-01

    In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...

  16. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  17. Probability matching and strategy availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Derek J; James, Greta

    2010-09-01

    Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought to their attention, more participants subsequently engage in maximizing. Third, matchers are more likely than maximizers to base decisions in other tasks on their initial intuitions, suggesting that they are more inclined to use a choice strategy that comes to mind quickly. These results indicate that a substantial subset of probability matchers are victims of "underthinking" rather than "overthinking": They fail to engage in sufficient deliberation to generate a superior alternative to the matching strategy that comes so readily to mind.

  18. Probability as a Physical Motive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Martin

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent theoretical progress in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, linking thephysical principle of Maximum Entropy Production (“MEP” to the information-theoretical“MaxEnt” principle of scientific inference, together with conjectures from theoreticalphysics that there may be no fundamental causal laws but only probabilities for physicalprocesses, and from evolutionary theory that biological systems expand “the adjacentpossible” as rapidly as possible, all lend credence to the proposition that probability shouldbe recognized as a fundamental physical motive. It is further proposed that spatial order andtemporal order are two aspects of the same thing, and that this is the essence of the secondlaw of thermodynamics.

  19. Logic, Probability, and Human Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. The nature of deductive reasoning To be rational is to be able to make deductions...3–6] and they underlie mathematics, science, and tech- nology [7–10]. Plato claimed that emotions upset reason- ing. However, individuals in the grip...fundamental to human rationality . So, if counterexamples to its principal predictions occur, the theory will at least explain its own refutation

  20. Probability Measures on Groups IX

    CERN Document Server

    1989-01-01

    The latest in this series of Oberwolfach conferences focussed on the interplay between structural probability theory and various other areas of pure and applied mathematics such as Tauberian theory, infinite-dimensional rotation groups, central limit theorems, harmonizable processes, and spherical data. Thus it was attended by mathematicians whose research interests range from number theory to quantum physics in conjunction with structural properties of probabilistic phenomena. This volume contains 5 survey articles submitted on special invitation and 25 original research papers.

  1. Probability matching and strategy availability

    OpenAIRE

    J. Koehler, Derek; Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta

    2010-01-01

    Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought...

  2. Reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome in children; MR imaging findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Kwon; Kim, Yong Sun [Kyungpook National Univ. Taegu (Korea, Republic of); Kwon, Soon Hak [Ulsan Univ. College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-02-01

    To find out the characteristic MR findings of reversible posterior leukoen-cephalopathy syndrome (RPLS) due to various causes in chldren. Eigh children with RPLS underwent MR imaging, and the findings were retrospectively analyzed. All eight were acutely hypertensive at the time of a neurotoxic episode. Three had intra-abdominal tumors (one adrenal pheochromo-cytoma, one para-aortic paraganglioma and one para-aortic ganglioneuroma encasing the left renal artery): three were being treated with cyclosporine: one was being treated with steroid: and one had hemolytric uremic syndrome. Initial cranial MR images were analyzed with particular emphasis on the distribution of the lesions. To assess possible sequelae, follow-up MR images were obtained in seven patients at least one week after the treatment of hypertension. Four underwent proton MR spectroscopy. Characteristic distribution of lesions in the occipital and posterior parietal lobes was identified in all cases regardless of the causes of RPLS. The cerebellum, basal ganglia, anterior parietal, and frontal lobe were involved in four, two, one, and one case, respectively. Cortical gray matter involvement was predominant in six and subcortical white matter involvement predominated in two patients. The distribution of lesions was bilateral and asymmetric. Gyriform enhancement was identified in six cases, and small hemorrhage was noted in one. In seven patients, the clinical and MR findings improved without sequelae on follow-up study. In one, proton MR spectroscopy demonstrated a high lactate peak at the time of the neurologic event. Nearnormal spectra were noted in three children who underwent proton MR spectroscopy after recovery. The MR findings of RPLS are characteristic in that lesions are distributed in the posterior region of the brain and they are reversible on follow-up study. In children with RPLS due to unknown causes, the possibility of intra-abdominal tumors should also be consiodered.

  3. Reversible posterior leukoencephalopathy syndrome in children; MR imaging findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Kwon; Kim, Yong Sun; Kwon, Soon Hak

    2001-01-01

    To find out the characteristic MR findings of reversible posterior leukoen-cephalopathy syndrome (RPLS) due to various causes in chldren. Eigh children with RPLS underwent MR imaging, and the findings were retrospectively analyzed. All eight were acutely hypertensive at the time of a neurotoxic episode. Three had intra-abdominal tumors (one adrenal pheochromo-cytoma, one para-aortic paraganglioma and one para-aortic ganglioneuroma encasing the left renal artery): three were being treated with cyclosporine: one was being treated with steroid: and one had hemolytric uremic syndrome. Initial cranial MR images were analyzed with particular emphasis on the distribution of the lesions. To assess possible sequelae, follow-up MR images were obtained in seven patients at least one week after the treatment of hypertension. Four underwent proton MR spectroscopy. Characteristic distribution of lesions in the occipital and posterior parietal lobes was identified in all cases regardless of the causes of RPLS. The cerebellum, basal ganglia, anterior parietal, and frontal lobe were involved in four, two, one, and one case, respectively. Cortical gray matter involvement was predominant in six and subcortical white matter involvement predominated in two patients. The distribution of lesions was bilateral and asymmetric. Gyriform enhancement was identified in six cases, and small hemorrhage was noted in one. In seven patients, the clinical and MR findings improved without sequelae on follow-up study. In one, proton MR spectroscopy demonstrated a high lactate peak at the time of the neurologic event. Nearnormal spectra were noted in three children who underwent proton MR spectroscopy after recovery. The MR findings of RPLS are characteristic in that lesions are distributed in the posterior region of the brain and they are reversible on follow-up study. In children with RPLS due to unknown causes, the possibility of intra-abdominal tumors should also be consiodered

  4. Consolidation of Complex Events via Reinstatement in Posterior Cingulate Cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird, Chris M; Keidel, James L; Ing, Leslie P; Horner, Aidan J; Burgess, Neil

    2015-10-28

    It is well-established that active rehearsal increases the efficacy of memory consolidation. It is also known that complex events are interpreted with reference to prior knowledge. However, comparatively little attention has been given to the neural underpinnings of these effects. In healthy adults humans, we investigated the impact of effortful, active rehearsal on memory for events by showing people several short video clips and then asking them to recall these clips, either aloud (Experiment 1) or silently while in an MRI scanner (Experiment 2). In both experiments, actively rehearsed clips were remembered in far greater detail than unrehearsed clips when tested a week later. In Experiment 1, highly similar descriptions of events were produced across retrieval trials, suggesting a degree of semanticization of the memories had taken place. In Experiment 2, spatial patterns of BOLD signal in medial temporal and posterior midline regions were correlated when encoding and rehearsing the same video. Moreover, the strength of this correlation in the posterior cingulate predicted the amount of information subsequently recalled. This is likely to reflect a strengthening of the representation of the video's content. We argue that these representations combine both new episodic information and stored semantic knowledge (or "schemas"). We therefore suggest that posterior midline structures aid consolidation by reinstating and strengthening the associations between episodic details and more generic schematic information. This leads to the creation of coherent memory representations of lifelike, complex events that are resistant to forgetting, but somewhat inflexible and semantic-like in nature. Copyright © 2015 Bird, Keidel et al.

  5. Genetic investigation of 93 families with microphthalmia or posterior microphthalmos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, N; Khan, A O; Alsahli, S; Abdel-Salam, G; Nowilaty, S R; Mansour, A M; Nabil, A; Al-Owain, M; Sogati, S; Salih, M A; Kamal, A M; Alsharif, H; Alsaif, H S; Alzahrani, S S; Abdulwahab, F; Ibrahim, N; Hashem, M; Faquih, T; Shah, Z A; Abouelhoda, M; Monies, D; Dasouki, M; Shaheen, R; Wakil, S M; Aldahmesh, M A; Alkuraya, F S

    2018-06-01

    Microphthalmia is a developmental eye defect that is highly variable in severity and in its potential for systemic association. Despite the discovery of many disease genes in microphthalmia, at least 50% of patients remain undiagnosed genetically. Here, we describe a cohort of 147 patients (93 families) from our highly consanguineous population with various forms of microphthalmia (including the distinct entity of posterior microphthalmos) that were investigated using a next-generation sequencing multi-gene panel (i-panel) as well as whole exome sequencing and molecular karyotyping. A potentially causal mutation was identified in the majority of the cohort with microphthalmia (61%) and posterior microphthalmos (82%). The identified mutations (55 point mutations, 15 of which are novel) spanned 24 known disease genes, some of which have not or only very rarely been linked to microphthalmia (PAX6, SLC18A2, DSC3 and CNKSR1). Our study has also identified interesting candidate variants in 2 genes that have not been linked to human diseases (MYO10 and ZNF219), which we present here as novel candidates for microphthalmia. In addition to revealing novel phenotypic aspects of microphthalmia, this study expands its allelic and locus heterogeneity and highlights the need for expanded testing of patients with this condition. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Oral azithromycin for treatment of posterior blepharitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igami, Thais Zamudio; Holzchuh, Ricardo; Osaki, Tammy Hentona; Santo, Ruth Miyuki; Kara-Jose, Newton; Hida, Richard Y

    2011-10-01

    To evaluate the effects of oral azithromycin in patients with posterior blepharitis. Twenty-six eyes of 13 patients with posterior blepharitis diagnosed by a qualified ophthalmologist were enrolled in this study. Patients were instructed to use oral azithromycin 500 mg per day for 3 days in 3 cycles with 7-day intervals. Subjective clinical outcomes were graded and scored 1 day before and 30 days after the end of the treatment (53 days after initiating the treatment) based on severity scores of: (1) eyelid debris; (2) eyelid telangiectasia; (3) swelling of the eyelid margin; (4) redness of the eyelid margin; and (5) ocular mucus secretion. For the assessment of global efficacy, patients were asked by the investigator to rate the subjective symptoms (eyelid itching, ocular itching, eyelid hyperemia, ocular hyperemia, ocular mucus secretion, photophobia, foreign body sensation, and dry eye sensation) on a scale of 0 (no symptoms) to 5 (severe symptoms). Break-up time, Schirmer I test, corneal fluorescein staining score, and rose bengal staining score were also performed in all patients. All clinical outcomes scoring showed statistically significant improvement after oral azithromycin, except for eyelid swelling. Average subjective symptom grading improved statistically after treatment with oral azithromycin, except for eyelid hyperemia, photophobia, and foreign body sensation. Average tear film break-up time values showed statistically significant improvement after the treatment with oral azithromycin. No statistically significant improvement was observed on average values of Schirmer I test, corneal fluorescein staining score, and rose bengal staining score. The combination of multiple clinical parameters shown in this study supports the clinical efficacy of pulsed oral azithromycin therapy for the management of posterior blepharitis.

  7. SINDROME DE COLAPSO DE MORDIDA POSTERIOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Alejandra Baldión

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available El Síndrome de Colapso de Mordida posterior es una patología oclusal que se presenta como consecuencia de problemas dentales, periodontales y oclusales, que exige la correcta evaluación de los signos y síntomas que lo caracterizan.  El objetivo del artículo es describir la manera como evoluciona la enfermedad, la evaluación multidisciplinaria para obtener un diagnóstico preciso y la secuencia de tratamiento integral, revisando los conceptos para un mejor entendimiento del tratamiento periodontal y restaurativo que requieren los pacientes con síndrome de colapso de mordida posterior; caracterizado por procesos patológicos como enfermedad periodontal, caries dental con subsecuente alteración de la integridad del arco dentario que genera perdida de soporte posterior conllevando a un trauma oclusal secundario y disminución de la dimensión vertical oclusal. El control del proceso inflamatorio y la estabilización periodontal son puntos de partida indispensables en el tratamiento integral del paciente. La migración patológica de los dientes y las alteraciones del plano oclusal pueden exigir la corrección ortodóntica de los arcos y en algunos casos el concurso de cirugía oral para la nivelación del plano oclusal. La secuencia organizada del tratamiento por fases permite la restauración predecible de los pacientes con este síndrome, tomando en cuenta las diferentes alternativas protésicas tanto removibles como fijas con o sin implantes de oseointegración, para el éxito integral a largo plazo.

  8. The probability and severity of decompression sickness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hada, Ethan A.; Vann, Richard D.; Denoble, Petar J.

    2017-01-01

    Decompression sickness (DCS), which is caused by inert gas bubbles in tissues, is an injury of concern for scuba divers, compressed air workers, astronauts, and aviators. Case reports for 3322 air and N2-O2 dives, resulting in 190 DCS events, were retrospectively analyzed and the outcomes were scored as (1) serious neurological, (2) cardiopulmonary, (3) mild neurological, (4) pain, (5) lymphatic or skin, and (6) constitutional or nonspecific manifestations. Following standard U.S. Navy medical definitions, the data were grouped into mild—Type I (manifestations 4–6)–and serious–Type II (manifestations 1–3). Additionally, we considered an alternative grouping of mild–Type A (manifestations 3–6)–and serious–Type B (manifestations 1 and 2). The current U.S. Navy guidance allows for a 2% probability of mild DCS and a 0.1% probability of serious DCS. We developed a hierarchical trinomial (3-state) probabilistic DCS model that simultaneously predicts the probability of mild and serious DCS given a dive exposure. Both the Type I/II and Type A/B discriminations of mild and serious DCS resulted in a highly significant (p probability of ‘mild’ DCS resulted in a longer allowable bottom time for the same 2% limit. However, for the 0.1% serious DCS limit, we found a vastly decreased allowable bottom dive time for all dive depths. If the Type A/B scoring was assigned to outcome severity, the no decompression limits (NDL) for air dives were still controlled by the acceptable serious DCS risk limit rather than the acceptable mild DCS risk limit. However, in this case, longer NDL limits were allowed than with the Type I/II scoring. The trinomial model mild and serious probabilities agree reasonably well with the current air NDL only with the Type A/B scoring and when 0.2% risk of serious DCS is allowed. PMID:28296928

  9. Post-partum posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aaen, Anne Albers; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Obaid, Hayder

    2015-01-01

    Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES) is a complex clinical condition with vasogenic subcortical oedema caused by hypertension. Oedema is often seen on magnetic resonance imaging. The wide clinical spectrum ranges from headaches to vision loss and even death. Early diagnosis...... and treatment is important for the reversibility of the condition. In this case report we emphasize the importance of blood pressure control in a post-partum woman, who had a rather complicated pregnancy. The symptoms of PRES were not recognized immediately because of failure to use and acknowledge a blood...

  10. Superior labrum anterior-to-posterior tear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sum, Jonathan C; Omid, Reza

    2012-12-01

    The patient was a 25-year-old male college student with a chief complaint of right shoulder pain. The patient was initially diagnosed with bicipital tendinitis by his physician and had been treated for 4 weeks by a physical therapist. However, his symptoms did not improve and he was unable to return to his preinjury activity levels, so he sought the services of another physical therapist for a second opinion. Due to concern for a labrum tear, the physical therapist referred the patient to an orthopaedic surgeon. Magnetic resonance arthrography revealed findings consistent with a superior labrum anterior-to-posterior tear.

  11. Post-partum posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aaen, Anne Albers; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Obaid, Hayder

    2015-01-01

    and treatment is important for the reversibility of the condition. In this case report we emphasize the importance of blood pressure control in a post-partum woman, who had a rather complicated pregnancy. The symptoms of PRES were not recognized immediately because of failure to use and acknowledge a blood......Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES) is a complex clinical condition with vasogenic subcortical oedema caused by hypertension. Oedema is often seen on magnetic resonance imaging. The wide clinical spectrum ranges from headaches to vision loss and even death. Early diagnosis...

  12. [Post-partum posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aaen, Anne Albers; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Obaid, Hayder; Bülow, Hans Henrik

    2015-11-23

    Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES) is a complex clinical condition with vasogenic subcortical oedema caused by hypertension. Oedema is often seen on magnetic resonance imaging. The wide clinical spectrum ranges from headaches to vision loss and even death. Early diagnosis and treatment is important for the reversibility of the condition. In this case report we emphasize the importance of blood pressure control in a post-partum woman, who had a rather complicated pregnancy. The symptoms of PRES were not recognized immediately because of failure to use and acknowledge a blood pressure test.

  13. Posterior breast cancer: Mammographic and ultrasonographic features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janković Ana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Posterior breast cancers are located in the prepectoral region of the breast. Owing to this distinctive anatomical localization, physical examination and mammographic or ultrasonographic evaluation can be difficult. The purpose of the study was to assess possibilities of diagnostic mammography and breast ultrasonography in detection and differentiation of posterior breast cancers. Methods. The study included 40 women with palpable, histopathological confirmed posterior breast cancer. Mammographic and ultrasonographic features were defined according to Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS lexicon. Results. Based on standard two-view mammography 87.5%, of the cases were classified as BI-RADS 4 and 5 categories, while after additional mammographic views all the cases were defined as BIRADS 4 and 5 categories. Among 96 mammographic descriptors, the most frequent were: spiculated mass (24.0%, architectural distortion (16.7%, clustered microcalcifications (12.6% and focal asymmetric density (12.6%. The differentiation of the spiculated mass was significantly associated with the possibility to visualize the lesion at two-view mammography (p = 0.009, without the association with lesion diameter (p = 0.083 or histopathological type (p = 0.055. Mammographic signs of invasive lobular carcinoma were significantly different from other histopathological types (architectural distortion, p = 0.003; focal asymmetric density, p = 0.019; association of four or five subtle signs of malignancy, p = 0.006. All cancers were detectable by ultrasonography. Mass lesions were found in 82.0% of the cases. Among 153 ultrasonographic descriptors, the most frequent were: irregular mass (15.7%, lobulated mass (7.2%, abnormal color Doppler signals (20.3%, posterior acoustic attenuation (18.3%. Ultrasonographic BI-RADS 4 and 5 categories were defined in 72.5% of the cases, without a significant difference among various histopathological types (p = 0

  14. Distrofia corneana policromática posterior Polychromatic posterior corneal dystrophy

    OpenAIRE

    Patrick Frensel de Moraes Tzelikis; Ulisses Roberto dos Santos; Marco Antônio Guarino Tanure; Fernando Cançado Trindade

    2007-01-01

    Os autores descrevem quatro raros casos de distrofia corneana policromática posterior, ainda não descrito na literatura nacional. Observam-se opacidades puntiformes, policromáticas, de tamanho uniforme, localização estromal profunda, distribuídas de limbo a limbo e que não interferem na acuidade visual. É apresentada uma revisão dos casos de distrofia pré-Descemet existentes na literatura.The authors describe four rare cases of polychromatic posterior corneal dystrophy, not describe in nation...

  15. Distrofia corneana amorfa posterior: relato de caso Posterior amorphous corneal dystrophy: case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauro Augusto de Oliveira

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste trabalho é alertar o oftalmologista da possibilidade de se deparar com casos raros de distrofias corneanas. Neste caso correlacionamos os achados clínicos da distrofia amorfa posterior com refração, topografia e biomicroscopia ultra-sônica.The purpose of this paper is to warn the ophthalmologist about the possibility of facing rare cases of corneal dystrophies. Clinical findings of a case of posterior amorphous dystrophy were correlated with refraction, topography, and ultrasound biomicroscopy.

  16. Dependent Human Error Probability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; Vukovic, I.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of the dependence between dynamic operator actions modeled in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) PRA and estimate the associated impact on Core damage frequency (CDF). This assessment was done improve HEP dependencies implementation inside existing PRA. All of the dynamic operator actions modeled in the NPP PRA are included in this assessment. Determining the level of HEP dependence and the associated influence on CDF are the major steps of this assessment. A decision on how to apply the results, i.e., should permanent HEP model changes be made, is based on the resulting relative CDF increase. Some CDF increase was selected as a threshold based on the NPP base CDF value and acceptance guidelines from the Regulatory Guide 1.174. HEP dependence resulting in a CDF increase of > 5E-07 would be considered potential candidates for specific incorporation into the baseline model. The approach used to judge the level of dependence between operator actions is based on dependency level categories and conditional probabilities developed in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications NUREG/CR-1278. To simplify the process, NUREG/CR-1278 identifies five levels of dependence: ZD (zero dependence), LD (low dependence), MD (moderate dependence), HD (high dependence), and CD (complete dependence). NUREG/CR-1278 also identifies several qualitative factors that could be involved in determining the level of dependence. Based on the NUREG/CR-1278 information, Time, Function, and Spatial attributes were judged to be the most important considerations when determining the level of dependence between operator actions within an accident sequence. These attributes were used to develop qualitative criteria (rules) that were used to judge the level of dependence (CD, HD, MD, LD, ZD) between the operator actions. After the level of dependence between the various HEPs is judged, quantitative values associated with the

  17. Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

    OpenAIRE

    Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

    2015-01-01

    Background: Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. Method: We randomized 55 In...

  18. Consolidation of Complex Events via Reinstatement in Posterior Cingulate Cortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keidel, James L.; Ing, Leslie P.; Horner, Aidan J.

    2015-01-01

    It is well-established that active rehearsal increases the efficacy of memory consolidation. It is also known that complex events are interpreted with reference to prior knowledge. However, comparatively little attention has been given to the neural underpinnings of these effects. In healthy adults humans, we investigated the impact of effortful, active rehearsal on memory for events by showing people several short video clips and then asking them to recall these clips, either aloud (Experiment 1) or silently while in an MRI scanner (Experiment 2). In both experiments, actively rehearsed clips were remembered in far greater detail than unrehearsed clips when tested a week later. In Experiment 1, highly similar descriptions of events were produced across retrieval trials, suggesting a degree of semanticization of the memories had taken place. In Experiment 2, spatial patterns of BOLD signal in medial temporal and posterior midline regions were correlated when encoding and rehearsing the same video. Moreover, the strength of this correlation in the posterior cingulate predicted the amount of information subsequently recalled. This is likely to reflect a strengthening of the representation of the video's content. We argue that these representations combine both new episodic information and stored semantic knowledge (or “schemas”). We therefore suggest that posterior midline structures aid consolidation by reinstating and strengthening the associations between episodic details and more generic schematic information. This leads to the creation of coherent memory representations of lifelike, complex events that are resistant to forgetting, but somewhat inflexible and semantic-like in nature. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Memories are strengthened via consolidation. We investigated memory for lifelike events using video clips and showed that rehearsing their content dramatically boosts memory consolidation. Using MRI scanning, we measured patterns of brain activity while

  19. [Biometric bases: basic concepts of probability calculation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinya, E

    1998-04-26

    The author gives or outline of the basic concepts of probability theory. The bases of the event algebra, definition of the probability, the classical probability model and the random variable are presented.

  20. Probability and containment of turbine missiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeh, G.C.K.

    1976-01-01

    With the trend toward ever larger power generating plants with large high-speed turbines, an important plant design consideration is the potential for and consequences of mechanical failure of turbine rotors. Such rotor failure could result in high-velocity disc fragments (turbine missiles) perforating the turbine casing and jeopardizing vital plant systems. The designer must first estimate the probability of any turbine missile damaging any safety-related plant component for his turbine and his plant arrangement. If the probability is not low enough to be acceptable to the regulatory agency, he must design a shield to contain the postulated turbine missiles. Alternatively, the shield could be designed to retard (to reduce the velocity of) the missiles such that they would not damage any vital plant system. In this paper, some of the presently available references that can be used to evaluate the probability, containment and retardation of turbine missiles are reviewed; various alternative methods are compared; and subjects for future research are recommended. (Auth.)

  1. Bayesian noninferiority test for 2 binomial probabilities as the extension of Fisher exact test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doi, Masaaki; Takahashi, Fumihiro; Kawasaki, Yohei

    2017-12-30

    Noninferiority trials have recently gained importance for the clinical trials of drugs and medical devices. In these trials, most statistical methods have been used from a frequentist perspective, and historical data have been used only for the specification of the noninferiority margin Δ>0. In contrast, Bayesian methods, which have been studied recently are advantageous in that they can use historical data to specify prior distributions and are expected to enable more efficient decision making than frequentist methods by borrowing information from historical trials. In the case of noninferiority trials for response probabilities π 1 ,π 2 , Bayesian methods evaluate the posterior probability of H 1 :π 1 >π 2 -Δ being true. To numerically calculate such posterior probability, complicated Appell hypergeometric function or approximation methods are used. Further, the theoretical relationship between Bayesian and frequentist methods is unclear. In this work, we give the exact expression of the posterior probability of the noninferiority under some mild conditions and propose the Bayesian noninferiority test framework which can flexibly incorporate historical data by using the conditional power prior. Further, we show the relationship between Bayesian posterior probability and the P value of the Fisher exact test. From this relationship, our method can be interpreted as the Bayesian noninferior extension of the Fisher exact test, and we can treat superiority and noninferiority in the same framework. Our method is illustrated through Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the operating characteristics, the application to the real HIV clinical trial data, and the sample size calculation using historical data. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Probability for Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  3. Experiences in Performing Posterior Calvarial Distraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Kevin; Lloyd, Mark; Evans, Martin; White, Nicholas; Nishikawa, Hiroshi; Rodrigues, Desiderio; Sharp, Melanie; Noons, Pete; Solanki, Guirish; Dover, Stephen

    2017-05-01

    The use of posterior calvarial distraction (PCD) for the management of craniosynostosis is well recognized. The advantages of using this technique include increased cranial volume, decreased intracranial pressure, relief of posterior fossa crowding, improved cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) circulation at the cranio-cervical junction with cessation, and possible resolution of syrinx.The authors retrospectively review their first 50 patients who have undergone PCD under the senior author's care in our unit.The demographics, diagnoses, intraoperative approach with techniques in distractor placement and outcomes of each patient were obtained through an electronic craniofacial database and written patient records. Analysis of complication rates (bleeding, distraction problems, CSF leaks, and infection) was included.A total of 31 boys and 19 girls underwent the procedure between October 2006 and September 2015 with a median age was 17.7 months (range 4 months to 19 years). Of those 50 children, 34 of the cohort were proven to be syndromic by genetic testing.The median length of inpatient stay was 9.4 days (range 3-43 days). Average distraction distance was 24 mm.Complications including CSF leaks, bleeding, distractor problems, and severe complications (recorded in 3 patients) are discussed. Our overall complication rate was 50%.Favorable outcomes included resolution of Chiari, syrinx, and raised intracranial pressure in the majority of patients where distraction was successful.The authors recommend that PCD should be considered the primary treatment for increasing calvarial volume. The authors discuss our experiences and technical innovations over the past decade.

  4. Acute Spontaneous Posterior Fossa Subdural Hematoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osama Shukir Muhammed Amin

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Acute posterior fossa subdural hematomas are rare and most of them are trauma-related. Non-traumatic ones have been reported in patients who had idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura or those who had been receiving anticoagulant therapy. We report on the case of 57-year-old Iranian man who developed sudden severe occipital headache, drowsiness, repeated vomiting, and instability of stance and gait. He was neither hypertensive nor diabetic. No history of head trauma was obtained and he denied illicit drug or alcohol ingestion. A preliminary diagnosis of acute intra-cerebellar hemorrhage was made. His CT brain scan revealed an acute right-sided, extra-axial, crescent-shaped hyperdense area at the posterior fossa. His routine blood tests, platelets count, bleeding time, and coagulation profile were unremarkable. The patient had spontaneous acute infratentorial subdural hematoma. He was treated conservatively and discharged home well after 5 days. Since then, we could not follow-up him, clinically and radiologically because he went back to Iran. Our patient’s presentation, clinical course, and imaging study have called for conservative management, as the overall presentation was relatively benign. Unless the diagnosis is entertained and the CT brain scan is well-interpreted, the diagnosis may easily escape detection.

  5. MRI diagnosis of posterior fossa tumors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, Yasuyuki; Takahashi, Mutsumasa; Sakamoto, Yuuji; Kojima, Ryutarou; Bussaka, Hiromasa; Korogi, Yukunori

    1988-01-01

    Magnetic resonance images (MRI) of 58 patients with posterior fossa tumors were compared with computed tomography (CT). Spin echo (SE) technique and inversion recovery (IR) technique were obtained using 0.22 tesla resistive magnetic resonance unit. MRI was superior to CT in detecting the lesions and showing internal archtecture, hemorrhage, edema of the tumor and displacement of the normal brain. CT was superior to MRI in demonstrating calcification. MRI and CT were comparable in detecting erosions of the skull base, while MRI was superior to CT in showing erosions of the clivus. Most tumors showed hypointensity on T1 weighted images and hyperintensity on T2 weighted images. Meningioma showed equal or almost equal intensity to cerebral gray matter on both SE images. The boundary of intra-axial tumors was unclear in many cases without contrast enhancement using Gd-DTPA, while most extra-axial tumors showed clear margin surrounded by a thin band (rim). In 81.8 % of acoustic neurinomas, signal void rims were demonstrated on both SE images, and they were considered to be vessels around the tumor. The rims of meningioma, on the other hand, were hypointense on T1 weighted images and hyperintense on T2 weighted images. They were considered to be cerebrospinal fluid or capsule around the tumor. It has been concluded that MRI is the most important technique for diagnosis of posterior fossa tumors. (author)

  6. [Diagnosis and management of posterior urethra disruptions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensalah, K; Manunta, A; Guillé, F; Patard, J J

    2006-10-01

    Rupture of posterior urethra is usually seen in major traumas with associated pelvic fractures. Clinical presentation classically associates blood at the uretral meatus and urinary retention. Urinary diversion should be achieved by suprapubic puncture and major associated traumatic injuries (abdominal, orthopaedic, and neurological lesions) must be treated prior to urological management. Retrograde uretrocystography is performed a few days later in order to localize and classify the urethral lesion. Treatment of posterior urethral ruptures has evolved over the years. Immediate open repair is no longer recommended. The supra-pubic catheter can be left in place until resorption of the pelvic hematoma. Obliteration occurs in 100% of the cases and is treated by open surgery at 3 months. More and more patients are treated by early endoscopic realignment which has diminished by half the incidence of urethral strictures. Impotence and incontinence secondary to trauma or surgery occur in 20% and 10% of the patients respectively. Long term follow-up should be achieved in every patient.

  7. SINDROME DE COLAPSO DE MORDIDA POSTERIOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Alejandra Baldión

    2012-07-01

    El objetivo del artículo es describir la manera como evoluciona la enfermedad, la evaluación multidisciplinaria para obtener un diagnóstico preciso y la secuencia de tratamiento integral, revisando los conceptos para un mejor entendimiento del tratamiento periodontal y restaurativo que requieren los pacientes con síndrome de colapso de mordida posterior; caracterizado por procesos patológicos como enfermedad periodontal, caries dental con subsecuente alteración de la integridad del arco dentario que genera perdida de soporte posterior conllevando a un trauma oclusal secundario y disminución de la dimensión vertical oclusal. El control del proceso inflamatorio y la estabilización periodontal son puntos de partida indispensables en el tratamiento integral del paciente. La migración patológica de los dientes y las alteraciones del plano oclusal pueden exigir la corrección ortodóntica de los arcos y en algunos casos el concurso de cirugía oral para la nivelación del plano oclusal. La secuencia organizada del tratamiento por fases permite la restauración predecible de los pacientes con este síndrome, tomando en cuenta las diferentes alternativas protésicas tanto removibles como fijas con o sin implantes de oseointegración, para el éxito integral a largo plazo.

  8. Bayesian posterior distributions without Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B

    2012-03-01

    Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976-1983) assessing the relation between residential exposure to magnetic fields and the development of childhood cancer. Results from rejection sampling (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% posterior interval (PI): 0.57, 5.00) were similar to MCMC results (OR = 1.69, 95% PI: 0.58, 4.95) and approximations from data-augmentation priors (OR = 1.74, 95% PI: 0.60, 5.06). In example 2, the authors apply rejection sampling to a cohort study of 315 human immunodeficiency virus seroconverters (1984-1998) to assess the relation between viral load after infection and 5-year incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, adjusting for (continuous) age at seroconversion and race. In this more complex example, rejection sampling required a notably longer run time than MCMC sampling but remained feasible and again yielded similar results. The transparency of the proposed approach comes at a price of being less broadly applicable than MCMC.

  9. Study of hemostasis procedures for posterior epistaxis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iimura, Jiro; Hatano, Atsushi; Ando, Yuji; Arai, Chiaki; Arai, Satoshi; Shigeta, Yasushi; Kojima, Hiromi; Otori, Nobuyoshi; Wada, Kota

    2016-06-01

    Hemostasis is difficult in patients with bleeding emanating from the deep regions in the nasal cavity; however, there is no standard treatment method. We studied hemostasis procedures in patients who visited our outpatient department and presented with idiopathic epistaxis extending from the posterior nasal cavity to Kiesselbach's area. The subjects were patients with epistaxis who visited our hospital between June 2008 and May 2010. We asked specific questions at the time of the hospital visit and examined patients using a nasal speculum, a flexible endoscope, and a rigid endoscope (0 or 70 degree) to identify bleeding sites. Hemostasis using electrocoagulation was selected as the first-line therapy for patients in whom a bleeding point had been identified, whereas hemostasis using a gauze tampon was performed in patients in whom the bleeding point was unknown. The subjects were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The bleeding point was unknown in most cases of recurrent posterior epistaxis. Electrocoagulation was the best hemostasis procedure. Identifying the bleeding points as much as possible and performing electrocoagulation at these sites was the preferred procedures. We propose the treatment procedure for refractory epistaxis. When it is difficult to identify a bleeding point in a patient with refractory epistaxis due to a deviated nasal septum, a bleeding point should be identified after septoplasty; for bleeding from the sphenopalatine artery region, electrocoagulation or endoscopic cauterization of the sphenopalatine artery should be performed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes.   Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area.  The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and

  11. Probability, statistics, and computational science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.

  12. Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.

    2006-01-01

    Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values

  13. Comparing the mannitol-egg yolk-polymyxin agar plating method with the three-tube most-probable-number method for enumeration of Bacillus cereus spores in raw and high-temperature, short-time pasteurized milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Nigel M; Getty, Kelly J K; Schmidt, Karen A; Nutsch, Abbey L; Linton, Richard H

    2011-03-01

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Bacteriological Analytical Manual recommends two enumeration methods for Bacillus cereus: (i) standard plate count method with mannitol-egg yolk-polymyxin (MYP) agar and (ii) a most-probable-number (MPN) method with tryptic soy broth (TSB) supplemented with 0.1% polymyxin sulfate. This study compared the effectiveness of MYP and MPN methods for detecting and enumerating B. cereus in raw and high-temperature, short-time pasteurized skim (0.5%), 2%, and whole (3.5%) bovine milk stored at 4°C for 96 h. Each milk sample was inoculated with B. cereus EZ-Spores and sampled at 0, 48, and 96 h after inoculation. There were no differences (P > 0.05) in B. cereus populations among sampling times for all milk types, so data were pooled to obtain overall mean values for each treatment. The overall B. cereus population mean of pooled sampling times for the MPN method (2.59 log CFU/ml) was greater (P milk samples ranged from 2.36 to 3.46 and 2.66 to 3.58 log CFU/ml for inoculated milk treatments for the MYP plate count and MPN methods, respectively, which is below the level necessary for toxin production. The MPN method recovered more B. cereus, which makes it useful for validation research. However, the MYP plate count method for enumeration of B. cereus also had advantages, including its ease of use and faster time to results (2 versus 5 days for MPN).

  14. Ependymomas of the posterior cranial fossa: CT and MRI findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tortori-Donati, P.; Fondelli, M.P.; Cama, A.; Garre, M.L.; Rossi, A.; Andreussi, L.

    1995-01-01

    We studied nine children with posterior cranial fossa ependymomas to identify specific neuroradiological features. Patients were studied preoperatively with CT and MRI; T1-, T2- and proton-density (PD)-weighted images were obtained. All children underwent surgery and a definite histopathological diagnosis was made. All the tumours grew into the fourth ventricle and caused dilatation of its upper part, which resembled a cap. All but one were separated from the vermis by a cleavage plane. In eight cases there was desmoplastic development through the foramina of the fourth ventricle, and five were heterogeneous due to necrosis and cystic change; one had a haemorrhagic area. In most cases the solid portion was isointense with grey matter on T1-weighted images, hyperintense on PD weighting, and isointense on T2-weighted images. On CT the tumour was isodense in six cases and calcification was detected in four. The presence of both desmoplastic development and a tumour/vermis cleavage plane in a posterior cranial fossa tumour isodense on CT is highly suggestive of ependymoma. (orig.)

  15. Stress fracture in posterior aspect of the tibia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, Tae Yong; Jung, Hyun Woo; Park, Chung Hun; Chun, Kyung Ah; Koo, Bong Sig; Lee, Sang Yong

    1999-01-01

    To determine correlation between stress fracture of the posterior tibia and flexor digitorum longus muscle injury caused by athletic or sporting activity during adolescence. Eleven cases diagnosed as stress fracture after X-ray and MR imaging of the lower leg were reviewed. With regard to each fracture, the following features were noted : age, sex, and athletic or sporting activity of the patient, and site. Using MR imaging techniques, axial and sagittal T1 and T2 weighted imaged were obtained in all cases and T1-Gd DTPA images in seven. The activities undertaken were running (n=3), football (n=2), ballet (n=2), taekwando (n=1), badminton (n=1), field hockey (n=1), and basketball (n=1). MR images revealed localized cortical thickness (n=11), linear intramedullary callus showing a low signal on T1 and T2 weighted images (n=9), marrow hyperemia (n=7), and flexor digitorum longus muscle injury showing a high signal on T1-Gd DTPA and T2 weighted image (n=7). Stress fracture of the posterior tibia might be induced by flexor digitorum longus muscle activity induced by athletic or sporting activities during adolescence

  16. Stress fracture in posterior aspect of the tibia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Tae Yong; Jung, Hyun Woo; Park, Chung Hun [Pusan National Univ. College of Medicine, Pusan (Korea, Republic of); Chun, Kyung Ah [Catholic Univ Hospital, Pusan (Korea, Republic of); Koo, Bong Sig [Donga Univ. Hospital, Pusan (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sang Yong [Chunbuk Natinoal Univ. Hospital, Chunju (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-01-01

    To determine correlation between stress fracture of the posterior tibia and flexor digitorum longus muscle injury caused by athletic or sporting activity during adolescence. Eleven cases diagnosed as stress fracture after X-ray and MR imaging of the lower leg were reviewed. With regard to each fracture, the following features were noted : age, sex, and athletic or sporting activity of the patient, and site. Using MR imaging techniques, axial and sagittal T1 and T2 weighted imaged were obtained in all cases and T1-Gd DTPA images in seven. The activities undertaken were running (n=3), football (n=2), ballet (n=2), taekwando (n=1), badminton (n=1), field hockey (n=1), and basketball (n=1). MR images revealed localized cortical thickness (n=11), linear intramedullary callus showing a low signal on T1 and T2 weighted images (n=9), marrow hyperemia (n=7), and flexor digitorum longus muscle injury showing a high signal on T1-Gd DTPA and T2 weighted image (n=7). Stress fracture of the posterior tibia might be induced by flexor digitorum longus muscle activity induced by athletic or sporting activities during adolescence.

  17. Trial type probability modulates the cost of antisaccades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiau, Hui-Yan; Tseng, Philip; Su, Jia-Han; Tzeng, Ovid J. L.; Hung, Daisy L.; Muggleton, Neil G.

    2011-01-01

    The antisaccade task, where eye movements are made away from a target, has been used to investigate the flexibility of cognitive control of behavior. Antisaccades usually have longer saccade latencies than prosaccades, the so-called antisaccade cost. Recent studies have shown that this antisaccade cost can be modulated by event probability. This may mean that the antisaccade cost can be reduced, or even reversed, if the probability of surrounding events favors the execution of antisaccades. The probabilities of prosaccades and antisaccades were systematically manipulated by changing the proportion of a certain type of trial in an interleaved pro/antisaccades task. We aimed to disentangle the intertwined relationship between trial type probabilities and the antisaccade cost with the ultimate goal of elucidating how probabilities of trial types modulate human flexible behaviors, as well as the characteristics of such modulation effects. To this end, we examined whether implicit trial type probability can influence saccade latencies and also manipulated the difficulty of cue discriminability to see how effects of trial type probability would change when the demand on visual perceptual analysis was high or low. A mixed-effects model was applied to the analysis to dissect the factors contributing to the modulation effects of trial type probabilities. Our results suggest that the trial type probability is one robust determinant of antisaccade cost. These findings highlight the importance of implicit probability in the flexibility of cognitive control of behavior. PMID:21543748

  18. Aggressive Posterior Retinopathy of Prematurity in a Premature Male Infant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Zhou

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A premature male infant was born at 30 weeks’ gestation with a birth weight of 1,700 g in a rural hospital. He was diagnosed with respiratory distress syndrome and received continuous positive airway pressure treatment for 26 days. At 26 days after birth, the patient was transferred to our hospital for further evaluation and management. A comprehensive eye examination revealed a stage 3 retinopathy of prematurity (ROP involving zone 2 in both eyes. The patient was recommended to a provincial-level eye hospital for emergency laser therapy. Five months after birth, the feedback from the eye hospital showed that the patient had a high risk of blindness in both eyes. Our case report shows that delaying first screening examination increases the possibility of developing aggressive posterior ROP in infants with ROP. Doctors in rural hospitals should be aware of this possibility and trained for early screening and treatment in high-risk infants.

  19. The Influence of Phonotactic Probability on Word Recognition in Toddlers

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacRoy-Higgins, Michelle; Shafer, Valerie L.; Schwartz, Richard G.; Marton, Klara

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the influence of phonotactic probability on word recognition in English-speaking toddlers. Typically developing toddlers completed a preferential looking paradigm using familiar words, which consisted of either high or low phonotactic probability sound sequences. The participants' looking behavior was recorded in response to…

  20. Endoscopic third ventriculostomy and posterior fossa tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Rocco, Federico; Jucá, Carlos Eduardo; Zerah, Michel; Sainte-Rose, Christian

    2013-02-01

    The management of hydrocephalus associated with a posterior fossa tumor is debated. Some authors emphasize the advantages of an immediate tumor removal that may normalize the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) dynamics. However, in clinical practice, the mere excision of the lesion has been demonstrated to be accompanied by a persisting hydrocephalus in about one third of the cases. Preoperative endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV) offers several advantages. It may control the intracranial pressure (ICP), avoid the necessity of an emergency procedure, allow appropriate scheduling of the operation for tumor removal, and eliminate the risks related to the presence of an external drainage. The procedure also reduces the incidence of postoperative hydrocephalus. A final advantage, more difficult to weight, but obvious to the neurosurgeon, is the possibility to remove the lesion with a relaxed brain and normal ICP. In the postoperative phase, ETV can be used in case of persisting hydrocephalus, both in patients who underwent only the excision of the tumor and in those whose preoperative ETV failed as a consequence of intraventricular bleeding with secondary closure of the stoma (redoETV). The main advantage of postoperative ETV is that the procedure is carried out only in case of persisting hydrocephalus; its use is consequently more selective than preoperative ETV. The disadvantage consists in the common use of an external CSF drainage in the first few postoperative days, which is necessary to control the pressure and for ruling out those cases that reach a spontaneous cure of the hydrocephalus. The authors review the criteria for patient selection and the results of ETV performed in case of hydrocephalus secondary to a posterior fossa tumor. Preoperative ETV constitutes an effective procedure for controlling the hydrocephalus associated with posterior fossa tumors. It might lower the rate of persistent postoperative hydrocephalus and result in a short hospital stay. Low