Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Portnoy, David; Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer

2011-01-01

Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the 'threat' set of spectra

Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

Science.gov (United States)

Portnoy, David; Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer

2011-10-01

Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the "threat" set of spectra

Factors Affecting Detection Probability of Acoustic Tags in Coral Reefs

KAUST Repository

Bermudez, Edgar F.

2012-05-01

Acoustic telemetry is an important tool for studying the movement patterns, behaviour, and site fidelity of marine organisms; however, its application is challenged in coral reef environments where complex topography and intense environmental noise interferes with acoustic signals, and there has been less study. Therefore, it is particularly critical in coral reef telemetry studies to first conduct a long-term range test, a tool that provides informa- tion on the variability and periodicity of the transmitter detection range and the detection probability. A one-month range test of a coded telemetric system was conducted prior to a large-scale tagging project investigating the movement of approximately 400 fishes from 30 species on offshore coral reefs in the central Red Sea. During this range test we determined the effect of the following factors on transmitter detection efficiency: distance from receiver, time of day, depth, wind, current, moon-phase and temperature. The experiment showed that biological noise is likely to be responsible for a diel pattern of -on average- twice as many detections during the day as during the night. Biological noise appears to be the most important noise source in coral reefs overwhelming the effect of wind-driven noise, which is important in other studies. Detection probability is also heavily influenced by the location of the acoustic sensor within the reef structure. Understanding the effect of environmental factors on transmitter detection probability allowed us to design a more effective receiver array for the large-scale tagging study.

Mining of high utility-probability sequential patterns from uncertain databases.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Binbin Zhang

Full Text Available High-utility sequential pattern mining (HUSPM has become an important issue in the field of data mining. Several HUSPM algorithms have been designed to mine high-utility sequential patterns (HUPSPs. They have been applied in several real-life situations such as for consumer behavior analysis and event detection in sensor networks. Nonetheless, most studies on HUSPM have focused on mining HUPSPs in precise data. But in real-life, uncertainty is an important factor as data is collected using various types of sensors that are more or less accurate. Hence, data collected in a real-life database can be annotated with existing probabilities. This paper presents a novel pattern mining framework called high utility-probability sequential pattern mining (HUPSPM for mining high utility-probability sequential patterns (HUPSPs in uncertain sequence databases. A baseline algorithm with three optional pruning strategies is presented to mine HUPSPs. Moroever, to speed up the mining process, a projection mechanism is designed to create a database projection for each processed sequence, which is smaller than the original database. Thus, the number of unpromising candidates can be greatly reduced, as well as the execution time for mining HUPSPs. Substantial experiments both on real-life and synthetic datasets show that the designed algorithm performs well in terms of runtime, number of candidates, memory usage, and scalability for different minimum utility and minimum probability thresholds.

Probabilities of False Alarm for Vital Sign Detection on the Basis of a Doppler Radar System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nguyen Thi Phuoc Van

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Vital detection on the basis of Doppler radars has drawn a great deal of attention from researchers because of its high potential for applications in biomedicine, surveillance, and finding people alive under debris during natural hazards. In this research, the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR of the remote vital-sign detection system is investigated. On the basis of different types of noise, such as phase noise, Gaussian noise, leakage noise between the transmitting and receiving antennae, and so on, the SNR of the system has first been examined. Then the research has focused on the investigation of the detection and false alarm probabilities of the system when the transmission link between the human and the radar sensor system took the Nakagami-m channel model. The analytical model for the false alarm and the detection probabilities of the system have been derived. The proposed theoretical models for the SNR and detection probability match with the simulation and measurement results. These theoretical models have the potential to be used as good references for the hardware development of the vital-sign detection radar sensor system.

Diagnostic accuracy of the MMSE in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease in ethnically diverse highly educated individuals: an analysis of the NACC database.

Science.gov (United States)

Spering, Cynthia C; Hobson, Valerie; Lucas, John A; Menon, Chloe V; Hall, James R; O'Bryant, Sid E

2012-08-01

To validate and extend the findings of a raised cut score of O'Bryant and colleagues (O'Bryant SE, Humphreys JD, Smith GE, et al. Detecting dementia with the mini-mental state examination in highly educated individuals. Arch Neurol. 2008;65(7):963-967.) for the Mini-Mental State Examination in detecting cognitive dysfunction in a bilingual sample of highly educated ethnically diverse individuals. Archival data were reviewed from participants enrolled in the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center minimum data set. Data on 7,093 individuals with 16 or more years of education were analyzed, including 2,337 cases with probable and possible Alzheimer's disease, 1,418 mild cognitive impairment patients, and 3,088 nondemented controls. Ethnic composition was characterized as follows: 6,296 Caucasians, 581 African Americans, 4 American Indians or Alaska natives, 2 native Hawaiians or Pacific Islanders, 149 Asians, 43 "Other," and 18 of unknown origin. Diagnostic accuracy estimates (sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio) of Mini-Mental State Examination cut scores in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease were examined. A standard Mini-Mental State Examination cut score of 24 (≤23) yielded a sensitivity of 0.58 and a specificity of 0.98 in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease across ethnicities. A cut score of 27 (≤26) resulted in an improved balance of sensitivity and specificity (0.79 and 0.90, respectively). In the cognitively impaired group (mild cognitive impairment and probable and possible Alzheimer's disease), the standard cut score yielded a sensitivity of 0.38 and a specificity of 1.00 while raising the cut score to 27 resulted in an improved balance of 0.59 and 0.96 of sensitivity and specificity, respectively. These findings cross-validate our previous work and extend them to an ethnically diverse cohort. A higher cut score is needed to maximize diagnostic accuracy of the Mini-Mental State Examination in individuals

Improved detection probability of low level light and infrared image fusion system

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Yuxiang; Fu, Rongguo; Zhang, Junju; Wang, Wencong; Chang, Benkang

2018-02-01

Low level light(LLL) image contains rich information on environment details, but is easily affected by the weather. In the case of smoke, rain, cloud or fog, much target information will lose. Infrared image, which is from the radiation produced by the object itself, can be "active" to obtain the target information in the scene. However, the image contrast and resolution is bad, the ability of the acquisition of target details is very poor, and the imaging mode does not conform to the human visual habit. The fusion of LLL and infrared image can make up for the deficiency of each sensor and give play to the advantages of single sensor. At first, we show the hardware design of fusion circuit. Then, through the recognition probability calculation of the target(one person) and the background image(trees), we find that the trees detection probability of LLL image is higher than that of the infrared image, and the person detection probability of the infrared image is obviously higher than that of LLL image. The detection probability of fusion image for one person and trees is higher than that of single detector. Therefore, image fusion can significantly enlarge recognition probability and improve detection efficiency.

Factors Affecting Detection Probability of Acoustic Tags in Coral Reefs

KAUST Repository

Bermudez, Edgar F.

2012-01-01

of the transmitter detection range and the detection probability. A one-month range test of a coded telemetric system was conducted prior to a large-scale tagging project investigating the movement of approximately 400 fishes from 30 species on offshore coral reefs

Count data, detection probabilities, and the demography, dynamics, distribution, and decline of amphibians.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Benedikt R

2003-08-01

The evidence for amphibian population declines is based on count data that were not adjusted for detection probabilities. Such data are not reliable even when collected using standard methods. The formula C = Np (where C is a count, N the true parameter value, and p is a detection probability) relates count data to demography, population size, or distributions. With unadjusted count data, one assumes a linear relationship between C and N and that p is constant. These assumptions are unlikely to be met in studies of amphibian populations. Amphibian population data should be based on methods that account for detection probabilities.

Review of Literature for Model Assisted Probability of Detection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meyer, Ryan M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Crawford, Susan L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lareau, John P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Anderson, Michael T. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2014-09-30

This is a draft technical letter report for NRC client documenting a literature review of model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) for potential application to nuclear power plant components for improvement of field NDE performance estimations.

Camera trap arrays improve detection probability of wildlife: Investigating study design considerations using an empirical dataset.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, Kelly M; Nathan, Lucas R; Liberati, Marjorie R; Tingley, Morgan W; Vokoun, Jason C; Rittenhouse, Tracy A G

2017-01-01

Camera trapping is a standard tool in ecological research and wildlife conservation. Study designs, particularly for small-bodied or cryptic wildlife species often attempt to boost low detection probabilities by using non-random camera placement or baited cameras, which may bias data, or incorrectly estimate detection and occupancy. We investigated the ability of non-baited, multi-camera arrays to increase detection probabilities of wildlife. Study design components were evaluated for their influence on wildlife detectability by iteratively parsing an empirical dataset (1) by different sizes of camera arrays deployed (1-10 cameras), and (2) by total season length (1-365 days). Four species from our dataset that represented a range of body sizes and differing degrees of presumed detectability based on life history traits were investigated: white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), bobcat (Lynx rufus), raccoon (Procyon lotor), and Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana). For all species, increasing from a single camera to a multi-camera array significantly improved detection probability across the range of season lengths and number of study sites evaluated. The use of a two camera array increased survey detection an average of 80% (range 40-128%) from the detection probability of a single camera across the four species. Species that were detected infrequently benefited most from a multiple-camera array, where the addition of up to eight cameras produced significant increases in detectability. However, for species detected at high frequencies, single cameras produced a season-long (i.e, the length of time over which cameras are deployed and actively monitored) detectability greater than 0.75. These results highlight the need for researchers to be critical about camera trap study designs based on their intended target species, as detectability for each focal species responded differently to array size and season length. We suggest that researchers a priori identify

Camera trap arrays improve detection probability of wildlife: Investigating study design considerations using an empirical dataset.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelly M O'Connor

Full Text Available Camera trapping is a standard tool in ecological research and wildlife conservation. Study designs, particularly for small-bodied or cryptic wildlife species often attempt to boost low detection probabilities by using non-random camera placement or baited cameras, which may bias data, or incorrectly estimate detection and occupancy. We investigated the ability of non-baited, multi-camera arrays to increase detection probabilities of wildlife. Study design components were evaluated for their influence on wildlife detectability by iteratively parsing an empirical dataset (1 by different sizes of camera arrays deployed (1-10 cameras, and (2 by total season length (1-365 days. Four species from our dataset that represented a range of body sizes and differing degrees of presumed detectability based on life history traits were investigated: white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus, bobcat (Lynx rufus, raccoon (Procyon lotor, and Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana. For all species, increasing from a single camera to a multi-camera array significantly improved detection probability across the range of season lengths and number of study sites evaluated. The use of a two camera array increased survey detection an average of 80% (range 40-128% from the detection probability of a single camera across the four species. Species that were detected infrequently benefited most from a multiple-camera array, where the addition of up to eight cameras produced significant increases in detectability. However, for species detected at high frequencies, single cameras produced a season-long (i.e, the length of time over which cameras are deployed and actively monitored detectability greater than 0.75. These results highlight the need for researchers to be critical about camera trap study designs based on their intended target species, as detectability for each focal species responded differently to array size and season length. We suggest that researchers a priori

Detection probability of gyrfalcons and other cliff-nesting raptors during aerial surveys in Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Booms, Travis L.; Fuller, Mark R.; Schempf, Philip F.; McCaffery, Brian J.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Watson, Richard T.; Cade, Tom J.; Fuller, Mark; Hunt, Grainger; Potapov, Eugene

2011-01-01

Assessing the status of Gyrfalcons (Falco rusticolus) and other cliffnesting raptors as the Arctic climate changes often requires aerial surveys of their breeding habitats. Because traditional, count-based surveys that do not adjust for differing detection probabilities can provide faulty inference about population status (Link and Sauer 1998, Thompson 2002), it will be important to incorporate measures of detection probability into survey methods whenever possible. To evaluate the feasibility of this, we conducted repeated aerial surveys for breeding cliff-nesting raptors on the Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge (YDNWR) in western Alaska to estimate detection probabilities of Gyrfalcons, Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus), and also Common Ravens (Corvus corax). Using the program PRESENCE, we modeled detection histories of each species based on single species occupancy modeling following MacKenzie et al. (2002, 2006). We used different observers during four helicopter replicate surveys in the Kilbuck Mountains and five fixed-wing replicate surveys in the Ingakslugwat Hills (hereafter called Volcanoes) near Bethel, Alaska. We used the following terms and definitions throughout: Survey Site: site of a nest used previously by a raptor and marked with a GPS-obtained latitude and longitude accurate to within 20 m. All GPS locations were obtained in prior years from a helicopter hovering approximately 10?20 m from a nest. The site was considered occupied if a bird or an egg was detected within approximately 500 m of the nest and this area served as our sampling unit. When multiple historical nests were located on a single cliff, we used only one GPS location to locate the survey site. Detection probability (p): the probability of a species being detected at a site given the site is occupied. Occupancy (?): the probability that the species of interest is present at a site during the survey period. A site was considered occupied if the

Quantifying Detection Probabilities for Proliferation Activities in Undeclared Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Listner, C.; Canty, M.; Niemeyer, I.; Rezniczek, A.; Stein, G.

2015-01-01

International Safeguards is currently in an evolutionary process to increase effectiveness and efficiency of the verification system. This is an obvious consequence of the inability to detect the Iraq's clandestine nuclear weapons programme in the early 90s. By the adoption of the Programme 93+2, this has led to the development of Integrated Safeguards and the State-level concept. Moreover, the IAEA's focus was extended onto proliferation activities outside the State's declared facilities. The effectiveness of safeguards activities within declared facilities can and have been quantified with respect to costs and detection probabilities. In contrast, when verifying the absence of undeclared facilities this quantification has been avoided in the past because it has been considered to be impossible. However, when balancing the allocation of budget between the declared and the undeclared field, explicit reasoning is needed why safeguards effort is distributed in a given way. Such reasoning can be given by a holistic, information and risk-driven approach to Acquisition Path Analysis comprising declared and undeclared facilities. Regarding the input, this approach relies on the quantification of several factors, i.e., costs of attractiveness values for specific proliferation activities, potential safeguards measures and detection probabilities for these measures also for the undeclared field. In order to overcome the lack of quantification for detection probabilities in undeclared facilities, the authors of this paper propose a general verification error model. Based on this model, four different approaches are explained and assessed with respect to their advantages and disadvantages: the analogy approach, the Bayes approach, the frequentist approach and the process approach. The paper concludes with a summary and an outlook on potential future research activities. (author)

Modeling co-occurrence of northern spotted and barred owls: accounting for detection probability differences

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Larissa L.; Reid, Janice A.; Forsman, Eric D.; Nichols, James D.

2009-01-01

Barred owls (Strix varia) have recently expanded their range and now encompass the entire range of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). This expansion has led to two important issues of concern for management of northern spotted owls: (1) possible competitive interactions between the two species that could contribute to population declines of northern spotted owls, and (2) possible changes in vocalization behavior and detection probabilities of northern spotted owls induced by presence of barred owls. We used a two-species occupancy model to investigate whether there was evidence of competitive exclusion between the two species at study locations in Oregon, USA. We simultaneously estimated detection probabilities for both species and determined if the presence of one species influenced the detection of the other species. Model selection results and associated parameter estimates provided no evidence that barred owls excluded spotted owls from territories. We found strong evidence that detection probabilities differed for the two species, with higher probabilities for northern spotted owls that are the object of current surveys. Non-detection of barred owls is very common in surveys for northern spotted owls, and detection of both owl species was negatively influenced by the presence of the congeneric species. Our results suggest that analyses directed at hypotheses of barred owl effects on demographic or occupancy vital rates of northern spotted owls need to deal adequately with imperfect and variable detection probabilities for both species.

Structural health monitoring and probability of detection estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Forsyth, David S.

2016-02-01

Structural health monitoring (SHM) methods are often based on nondestructive testing (NDT) sensors and are often proposed as replacements for NDT to lower cost and/or improve reliability. In order to take advantage of SHM for life cycle management, it is necessary to determine the Probability of Detection (POD) of the SHM system just as for traditional NDT to ensure that the required level of safety is maintained. Many different possibilities exist for SHM systems, but one of the attractive features of SHM versus NDT is the ability to take measurements very simply after the SHM system is installed. Using a simple statistical model of POD, some authors have proposed that very high rates of SHM system data sampling can result in high effective POD even in situations where an individual test has low POD. In this paper, we discuss the theoretical basis for determining the effect of repeated inspections, and examine data from SHM experiments against this framework to show how the effective POD from multiple tests can be estimated.

More efficient integrated safeguards by applying a reasonable detection probability for maintaining low presence probability of undetected nuclear proliferating activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otsuka, Naoto

2013-01-01

Highlights: • A theoretical foundation is presented for more efficient Integrated Safeguards (IS). • Probability of undetected nuclear proliferation activities should be maintained low. • For nations under IS, the probability to start proliferation activities is very low. • The fact can decrease the detection probability of IS by dozens of percentage points. • The cost of IS per nation can be cut down by reducing inspection frequencies etc. - Abstract: A theoretical foundation is presented for implementing more efficiently the present International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) integrated safeguards (ISs) on the basis of fuzzy evaluation of the probability that the evaluated nation will continue peaceful activities. It is shown that by determining the presence probability of undetected nuclear proliferating activities, nations under IS can be maintained at acceptably low proliferation risk levels even if the detection probability of current IS is decreased by dozens of percentage from the present value. This makes it possible to reduce inspection frequency and the number of collected samples, allowing the IAEA to cut costs per nation. This will contribute to further promotion and application of IS to more nations by the IAEA, and more efficient utilization of IAEA resources from the viewpoint of whole IS framework

Summary of intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting detection probability of marsh birds

Science.gov (United States)

Conway, C.J.; Gibbs, J.P.

2011-01-01

Many species of marsh birds (rails, bitterns, grebes, etc.) rely exclusively on emergent marsh vegetation for all phases of their life cycle, and many organizations have become concerned about the status and persistence of this group of birds. Yet, marsh birds are notoriously difficult to monitor due to their secretive habits. We synthesized the published and unpublished literature and summarized the factors that influence detection probability of secretive marsh birds in North America. Marsh birds are more likely to respond to conspecific than heterospecific calls, and seasonal peak in vocalization probability varies among co-existing species. The effectiveness of morning versus evening surveys varies among species and locations. Vocalization probability appears to be positively correlated with density in breeding Virginia Rails (Rallus limicola), Soras (Porzana carolina), and Clapper Rails (Rallus longirostris). Movement of birds toward the broadcast source creates biases when using count data from callbroadcast surveys to estimate population density. Ambient temperature, wind speed, cloud cover, and moon phase affected detection probability in some, but not all, studies. Better estimates of detection probability are needed. We provide recommendations that would help improve future marsh bird survey efforts and a list of 14 priority information and research needs that represent gaps in our current knowledge where future resources are best directed. ?? Society of Wetland Scientists 2011.

Probability of defect detection of Posiva's electron beam weld

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanzler, D.; Mueller, C.; Pitkaenen, J.

2013-12-01

The report 'Probability of Defect Detection of Posiva's electron beam weld' describes POD curves of four NDT methods radiographic testing, ultrasonic testing, eddy current testing and visual testing. POD-curves are based on the artificial defects in reference blocks. The results are devoted to the demonstration of suitability of the methods for EB weld testing. Report describes methodology and procedure applied by BAM. Report creates a link from the assessment of the reliability and inspection performance to the risk assessment process of the canister final disposal project. Report ensures the confirmation of the basic quality of the NDT methods and their capability to describe the quality of the EB-weld. The probability of detection curves are determined based on the MIL-1823 standard and it's reliability guidelines. The MIL-1823 standard was developed for the determination of integrity of gas turbine engines for the US military. In the POD-process there are determined as a key parameter for the defect detectability the a90/95 magnitudes, i.e. the size measure a of the defect, for which the lower 95 % confidence band crosses the 90 % POD level. By this way can be confirmed that defects with a size of a90/95 will be detected with 90 % probability. In case the experiment will be repeated 5 % might fall outside this confidence limit. (orig.)

High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Farmer, Jenny; Jacobs, Donald

2018-01-01

In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference.

Optimal sample size for probability of detection curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Annis, Charles; Gandossi, Luca; Martin, Oliver

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We investigate sample size requirement to develop probability of detection curves. • We develop simulations to determine effective inspection target sizes, number and distribution. • We summarize these findings and provide guidelines for the NDE practitioner. -- Abstract: The use of probability of detection curves to quantify the reliability of non-destructive examination (NDE) systems is common in the aeronautical industry, but relatively less so in the nuclear industry, at least in European countries. Due to the nature of the components being inspected, sample sizes tend to be much lower. This makes the manufacturing of test pieces with representative flaws, in sufficient numbers, so to draw statistical conclusions on the reliability of the NDT system under investigation, quite costly. The European Network for Inspection and Qualification (ENIQ) has developed an inspection qualification methodology, referred to as the ENIQ Methodology. It has become widely used in many European countries and provides assurance on the reliability of NDE systems, but only qualitatively. The need to quantify the output of inspection qualification has become more important as structural reliability modelling and quantitative risk-informed in-service inspection methodologies become more widely used. A measure of the NDE reliability is necessary to quantify risk reduction after inspection and probability of detection (POD) curves provide such a metric. The Joint Research Centre, Petten, The Netherlands supported ENIQ by investigating the question of the sample size required to determine a reliable POD curve. As mentioned earlier manufacturing of test pieces with defects that are typically found in nuclear power plants (NPPs) is usually quite expensive. Thus there is a tendency to reduce sample sizes, which in turn increases the uncertainty associated with the resulting POD curve. The main question in conjunction with POS curves is the appropriate sample size. Not

Binomial Test Method for Determining Probability of Detection Capability for Fracture Critical Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Generazio, Edward R.

2011-01-01

The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that for a minimum flaw size and all greater flaw sizes, there is 0.90 probability of detection with 95% confidence (90/95 POD). Directed design of experiments for probability of detection (DOEPOD) has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields estimates of POD and confidence bounds for both Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing, where signal amplitudes are reduced to Hit-Miss by using a signal threshold Directed DOEPOD uses a nonparametric approach for the analysis or inspection data that does require any assumptions about the particular functional form of a POD function. The DOEPOD procedure identifies, for a given sample set whether or not the minimum requirement of 0.90 probability of detection with 95% confidence is demonstrated for a minimum flaw size and for all greater flaw sizes (90/95 POD). The DOEPOD procedures are sequentially executed in order to minimize the number of samples needed to demonstrate that there is a 90/95 POD lower confidence bound at a given flaw size and that the POD is monotonic for flaw sizes exceeding that 90/95 POD flaw size. The conservativeness of the DOEPOD methodology results is discussed. Validated guidelines for binomial estimation of POD for fracture critical inspection are established.

Compensating for geographic variation in detection probability with water depth improves abundance estimates of coastal marine megafauna.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagihara, Rie; Jones, Rhondda E; Sobtzick, Susan; Cleguer, Christophe; Garrigue, Claire; Marsh, Helene

2018-01-01

The probability of an aquatic animal being available for detection is typically probability of detection is important for obtaining robust estimates of the population abundance and determining its status and trends. The dugong (Dugong dugon) is a bottom-feeding marine mammal and a seagrass community specialist. We hypothesized that the probability of a dugong being available for detection is dependent on water depth and that dugongs spend more time underwater in deep-water seagrass habitats than in shallow-water seagrass habitats. We tested this hypothesis by quantifying the depth use of 28 wild dugongs fitted with GPS satellite transmitters and time-depth recorders (TDRs) at three sites with distinct seagrass depth distributions: 1) open waters supporting extensive seagrass meadows to 40 m deep (Torres Strait, 6 dugongs, 2015); 2) a protected bay (average water depth 6.8 m) with extensive shallow seagrass beds (Moreton Bay, 13 dugongs, 2011 and 2012); and 3) a mixture of lagoon, coral and seagrass habitats to 60 m deep (New Caledonia, 9 dugongs, 2013). The fitted instruments were used to measure the times the dugongs spent in the experimentally determined detection zones under various environmental conditions. The estimated probability of detection was applied to aerial survey data previously collected at each location. In general, dugongs were least available for detection in Torres Strait, and the population estimates increased 6-7 fold using depth-specific availability correction factors compared with earlier estimates that assumed homogeneous detection probability across water depth and location. Detection probabilities were higher in Moreton Bay and New Caledonia than Torres Strait because the water transparency in these two locations was much greater than in Torres Strait and the effect of correcting for depth-specific detection probability much less. The methodology has application to visual survey of coastal megafauna including surveys using Unmanned

Sampling little fish in big rivers: Larval fish detection probabilities in two Lake Erie tributaries and implications for sampling effort and abundance indices

Science.gov (United States)

Pritt, Jeremy J.; DuFour, Mark R.; Mayer, Christine M.; Roseman, Edward F.; DeBruyne, Robin L.

2014-01-01

Larval fish are frequently sampled in coastal tributaries to determine factors affecting recruitment, evaluate spawning success, and estimate production from spawning habitats. Imperfect detection of larvae is common, because larval fish are small and unevenly distributed in space and time, and coastal tributaries are often large and heterogeneous. We estimated detection probabilities of larval fish from several taxa in the Maumee and Detroit rivers, the two largest tributaries of Lake Erie. We then demonstrated how accounting for imperfect detection influenced (1) the probability of observing taxa as present relative to sampling effort and (2) abundance indices for larval fish of two Detroit River species. We found that detection probabilities ranged from 0.09 to 0.91 but were always less than 1.0, indicating that imperfect detection is common among taxa and between systems. In general, taxa with high fecundities, small larval length at hatching, and no nesting behaviors had the highest detection probabilities. Also, detection probabilities were higher in the Maumee River than in the Detroit River. Accounting for imperfect detection produced up to fourfold increases in abundance indices for Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis and Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum. The effect of accounting for imperfect detection in abundance indices was greatest during periods of low abundance for both species. Detection information can be used to determine the appropriate level of sampling effort for larval fishes and may improve management and conservation decisions based on larval fish data.

The intensity detection of single-photon detectors based on photon counting probability density statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Zijing; Song Jie; Zhao Yuan; Wu Long

2017-01-01

Single-photon detectors possess the ultra-high sensitivity, but they cannot directly respond to signal intensity. Conventional methods adopt sampling gates with fixed width and count the triggered number of sampling gates, which is capable of obtaining photon counting probability to estimate the echo signal intensity. In this paper, we not only count the number of triggered sampling gates, but also record the triggered time position of photon counting pulses. The photon counting probability density distribution is obtained through the statistics of a series of the triggered time positions. Then Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimation (MVUE) method is used to estimate the echo signal intensity. Compared with conventional methods, this method can improve the estimation accuracy of echo signal intensity due to the acquisition of more detected information. Finally, a proof-of-principle laboratory system is established. The estimation accuracy of echo signal intensity is discussed and a high accuracy intensity image is acquired under low-light level environments. (paper)

Detection probability of cliff-nesting raptors during helicopter and fixed-wing aircraft surveys in western Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Booms, T.L.; Schempf, P.F.; McCaffery, B.J.; Lindberg, M.S.; Fuller, M.R.

2010-01-01

We conducted repeated aerial surveys for breeding cliff-nesting raptors on the Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge (YDNWR) in western Alaska to estimate detection probabilities of Gyrfalcons (Falco rusticolus), Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus), and also Common Ravens (Corvus corax). Using the program PRESENCE, we modeled detection histories of each species based on single species occupancy modeling. We used different observers during four helicopter replicate surveys in the Kilbuck Mountains and five fixed-wing replicate surveys in the Ingakslugwat Hills near Bethel, AK. During helicopter surveys, Gyrfalcons had the highest detection probability estimate (p^;p^ 0.79; SE 0.05), followed by Golden Eagles (p^=0.68; SE 0.05), Common Ravens (p^=0.45; SE 0.17), and Rough-legged Hawks (p^=0.10; SE 0.11). Detection probabilities from fixed-wing aircraft in the Ingakslugwat Hills were similar to those from the helicopter in the Kilbuck Mountains for Gyrfalcons and Golden Eagles, but were higher for Common Ravens (p^=0.85; SE 0.06) and Rough-legged Hawks (p^=0.42; SE 0.07). Fixed-wing aircraft provided detection probability estimates and SEs in the Ingakslugwat Hills similar to or better than those from helicopter surveys in the Kilbucks and should be considered for future cliff-nesting raptor surveys where safe, low-altitude flight is possible. Overall, detection probability varied by observer experience and in some cases, by study area/aircraft type.

Effects of population variability on the accuracy of detection probability estimates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ordonez Gloria, Alejandro

2011-01-01

Observing a constant fraction of the population over time, locations, or species is virtually impossible. Hence, quantifying this proportion (i.e. detection probability) is an important task in quantitative population ecology. In this study we determined, via computer simulations, the ef- fect of...

Detection probability in aerial surveys of feral horses

Science.gov (United States)

Ransom, Jason I.

2011-01-01

Observation bias pervades data collected during aerial surveys of large animals, and although some sources can be mitigated with informed planning, others must be addressed using valid sampling techniques that carefully model detection probability. Nonetheless, aerial surveys are frequently employed to count large mammals without applying such methods to account for heterogeneity in visibility of animal groups on the landscape. This often leaves managers and interest groups at odds over decisions that are not adequately informed. I analyzed detection of feral horse (Equus caballus) groups by dual independent observers from 24 fixed-wing and 16 helicopter flights using mixed-effect logistic regression models to investigate potential sources of observation bias. I accounted for observer skill, population location, and aircraft type in the model structure and analyzed the effects of group size, sun effect (position related to observer), vegetation type, topography, cloud cover, percent snow cover, and observer fatigue on detection of horse groups. The most important model-averaged effects for both fixed-wing and helicopter surveys included group size (fixed-wing: odds ratio = 0.891, 95% CI = 0.850–0.935; helicopter: odds ratio = 0.640, 95% CI = 0.587–0.698) and sun effect (fixed-wing: odds ratio = 0.632, 95% CI = 0.350–1.141; helicopter: odds ratio = 0.194, 95% CI = 0.080–0.470). Observer fatigue was also an important effect in the best model for helicopter surveys, with detection probability declining after 3 hr of survey time (odds ratio = 0.278, 95% CI = 0.144–0.537). Biases arising from sun effect and observer fatigue can be mitigated by pre-flight survey design. Other sources of bias, such as those arising from group size, topography, and vegetation can only be addressed by employing valid sampling techniques such as double sampling, mark–resight (batch-marked animals), mark–recapture (uniquely marked and

A prototype method for diagnosing high ice water content probability using satellite imager data

Science.gov (United States)

Yost, Christopher R.; Bedka, Kristopher M.; Minnis, Patrick; Nguyen, Louis; Strapp, J. Walter; Palikonda, Rabindra; Khlopenkov, Konstantin; Spangenberg, Douglas; Smith, William L., Jr.; Protat, Alain; Delanoe, Julien

2018-03-01

Recent studies have found that ingestion of high mass concentrations of ice particles in regions of deep convective storms, with radar reflectivity considered safe for aircraft penetration, can adversely impact aircraft engine performance. Previous aviation industry studies have used the term high ice water content (HIWC) to define such conditions. Three airborne field campaigns were conducted in 2014 and 2015 to better understand how HIWC is distributed in deep convection, both as a function of altitude and proximity to convective updraft regions, and to facilitate development of new methods for detecting HIWC conditions, in addition to many other research and regulatory goals. This paper describes a prototype method for detecting HIWC conditions using geostationary (GEO) satellite imager data coupled with in situ total water content (TWC) observations collected during the flight campaigns. Three satellite-derived parameters were determined to be most useful for determining HIWC probability: (1) the horizontal proximity of the aircraft to the nearest overshooting convective updraft or textured anvil cloud, (2) tropopause-relative infrared brightness temperature, and (3) daytime-only cloud optical depth. Statistical fits between collocated TWC and GEO satellite parameters were used to determine the membership functions for the fuzzy logic derivation of HIWC probability. The products were demonstrated using data from several campaign flights and validated using a subset of the satellite-aircraft collocation database. The daytime HIWC probability was found to agree quite well with TWC time trends and identified extreme TWC events with high probability. Discrimination of HIWC was more challenging at night with IR-only information. The products show the greatest capability for discriminating TWC ≥ 0.5 g m-3. Product validation remains challenging due to vertical TWC uncertainties and the typically coarse spatio-temporal resolution of the GEO data.

Highly enhanced avalanche probability using sinusoidally-gated silicon avalanche photodiode

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Suzuki, Shingo; Namekata, Naoto, E-mail: nnao@phys.cst.nihon-u.ac.jp; Inoue, Shuichiro [Institute of Quantum Science, Nihon University, 1-8-14 Kanda-Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan); Tsujino, Kenji [Tokyo Women' s Medical University, 8-1 Kawada-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-8666 (Japan)

2014-01-27

We report on visible light single photon detection using a sinusoidally-gated silicon avalanche photodiode. Detection efficiency of 70.6% was achieved at a wavelength of 520 nm when an electrically cooled silicon avalanche photodiode with a quantum efficiency of 72.4% was used, which implies that a photo-excited single charge carrier in a silicon avalanche photodiode can trigger a detectable avalanche (charge) signal with a probability of 97.6%.

Imperfection detection probability at ultrasonic testing of reactor vessels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazinczy, F. de; Koernvik, L.Aa.

1980-02-01

The report is a lecture given at a symposium organized by the Swedish nuclear power inspectorate on February 1980. Equipments, calibration and testing procedures are reported. The estimation of defect detection probability for ultrasonic tests and the reliability of literature data are discussed. Practical testing of reactor vessels and welded joints are described. Swedish test procedures are compared with other countries. Series of test data for welded joints of the OKG-2 reactor are presented. Future recommendations for testing procedures are made. (GBn)

Probability of detection - Comparative study of computed and film radiography for high-energy applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Venkatachalam, R.; Venugopal, M.; Prasad, T.

2007-01-01

Full text of publication follows: Suitability of computed radiography with Ir-192, Co-60 and up to 9 MeV x-rays for weld inspections is of importance to many heavy engineering and aerospace industries. CR is preferred because of lesser exposure and processing time as compared to film based radiography and also digital images offers other advantages such as image enhancements, quantitative measurements and easier archival. This paper describes systemic experimental approaches and image quality metrics to compare imaging performance of CR with film-based radiography. Experiments were designed using six-sigma methodology to validate performance of CR for steel thickness up to 160 mm with Ir- 192, Co-60 and x-ray energies varying from 100 kV up to 9 MeV. Weld specimens with defects such as lack of fusion, penetration, cracks, concavity, and porosities were studied for evaluating radiographic sensitivity and imaging performance of the system. Attempts were also made to quantify probability of detection using specimens with artificial and natural defects for various experimental conditions and were compared with film based systems. (authors)

Probability-of-Superiority SEM (PS-SEM—Detecting Probability-Based Multivariate Relationships in Behavioral Research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johnson Ching-Hong Li

2018-06-01

Full Text Available In behavioral research, exploring bivariate relationships between variables X and Y based on the concept of probability-of-superiority (PS has received increasing attention. Unlike the conventional, linear-based bivariate relationship (e.g., Pearson's correlation, PS defines that X and Y can be related based on their likelihood—e.g., a student who is above mean in SAT has 63% likelihood of achieving an above-mean college GPA. Despite its increasing attention, the concept of PS is restricted to a simple bivariate scenario (X-Y pair, which hinders the development and application of PS in popular multivariate modeling such as structural equation modeling (SEM. Therefore, this study addresses an empirical-based simulation study that explores the potential of detecting PS-based relationship in SEM, called PS-SEM. The simulation results showed that the proposed PS-SEM method can detect and identify PS-based when data follow PS-based relationships, thereby providing a useful method for researchers to explore PS-based SEM in their studies. Conclusions, implications, and future directions based on the findings are also discussed.

Probability of acoustic transmitter detections by receiver lines in Lake Huron: results of multi-year field tests and simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Hayden, Todd A.; Holbrook, Christopher M.; Binder, Thomas; Dettmers, John M.; Cooke, Steven J.; Vandergoot, Christopher S.; Krueger, Charles C.

2016-01-01

BackgroundAdvances in acoustic telemetry technology have led to an improved understanding of the spatial ecology of many freshwater and marine fish species. Understanding the performance of acoustic receivers is necessary to distinguish between tagged fish that may have been present but not detected and from those fish that were absent from the area. In this study, two stationary acoustic transmitters were deployed 250 m apart within each of four acoustic receiver lines each containing at least 10 receivers (i.e., eight acoustic transmitters) located in Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron for nearly 2 years to determine whether the probability of detecting an acoustic transmission varied as a function of time (i.e., season), location, and distance between acoustic transmitter and receiver. Distances between acoustic transmitters and receivers ranged from 200 m to >10 km in each line. The daily observed probability of detecting an acoustic transmission was used in simulation models to estimate the probability of detecting a moving acoustic transmitter on a line of receivers.ResultsThe probability of detecting an acoustic transmitter on a receiver 1000 m away differed by month for different receiver lines in Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay but was similar for paired acoustic transmitters deployed 250 m apart within the same line. Mean probability of detecting an acoustic transmitter at 1000 m calculated over the study period varied among acoustic transmitters 250 m apart within a line and differed among receiver lines in Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay. The simulated probability of detecting a moving acoustic transmitter on a receiver line was characterized by short periods of time with decreased detection. Although increased receiver spacing and higher fish movement rates decreased simulated detection probability, the location of the simulated receiver line in Lake Huron had the strongest effect on simulated detection probability.ConclusionsPerformance of receiver

Estimation of the defect detection probability for ultrasonic tests on thick sections steel weldments. Technical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, D.P.; Toomay, T.L.; Davis, C.S.

1979-02-01

An inspection uncertainty analysis of published PVRC Specimen 201 data is reported to obtain an estimate of the probability of recording an indication as a function of imperfection height for ASME Section XI Code ultrasonic inspections of the nuclear reactor vessel plate seams and to demonstrate the advantages of inspection uncertainty analysis over conventional detection/nondetection counting analysis. This analysis found the probability of recording a significant defect with an ASME Section XI Code ultrasonic inspection to be very high, if such a defect should exist in the plate seams of a nuclear reactor vessel. For a one-inch high crack, for example, this analysis gives a best estimate recording probability of .985 and a 90% lower confidence bound recording probabilty of .937. It is also shown that inspection uncertainty analysis gives more accurate estimates and gives estimates over a much greater flaw size range than is possible with conventional analysis. There is reason to believe that the estimation procedure used is conservative, the estimation is based on data generated several years ago, on very small defects, in an environment that is different from the actual in-service inspection environment

Improving detection probabilities for pests in stored grain.

Science.gov (United States)

Elmouttie, David; Kiermeier, Andreas; Hamilton, Grant

2010-12-01

The presence of insects in stored grain is a significant problem for grain farmers, bulk grain handlers and distributors worldwide. Inspection of bulk grain commodities is essential to detect pests and thereby to reduce the risk of their presence in exported goods. It has been well documented that insect pests cluster in response to factors such as microclimatic conditions within bulk grain. Statistical sampling methodologies for grain, however, have typically considered pests and pathogens to be homogeneously distributed throughout grain commodities. In this paper, a sampling methodology is demonstrated that accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of insects in bulk grain. It is shown that failure to account for the heterogeneous distribution of pests may lead to overestimates of the capacity for a sampling programme to detect insects in bulk grain. The results indicate the importance of the proportion of grain that is infested in addition to the density of pests within the infested grain. It is also demonstrated that the probability of detecting pests in bulk grain increases as the number of subsamples increases, even when the total volume or mass of grain sampled remains constant. This study underlines the importance of considering an appropriate biological model when developing sampling methodologies for insect pests. Accounting for a heterogeneous distribution of pests leads to a considerable improvement in the detection of pests over traditional sampling models. Copyright © 2010 Society of Chemical Industry.

Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD)

Science.gov (United States)

Generazio, Edward R.

2015-01-01

Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD) Manual v.1.2 The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that there is 95% confidence that the POD is greater than 90% (90/95 POD). Design of experiments for validating probability of detection capability of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) systems (DOEPOD) is a methodology that is implemented via software to serve as a diagnostic tool providing detailed analysis of POD test data, guidance on establishing data distribution requirements, and resolving test issues. DOEPOD demands utilization of observance of occurrences. The DOEPOD capability has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields observed POD and confidence bounds for both Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing. DOEPOD does not assume prescribed POD logarithmic or similar functions with assumed adequacy over a wide range of flaw sizes and inspection system technologies, so that multi-parameter curve fitting or model optimization approaches to generate a POD curve are not required. DOEPOD applications for supporting inspector qualifications is included.

A fast algorithm for estimating transmission probabilities in QTL detection designs with dense maps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gilbert Hélène

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In the case of an autosomal locus, four transmission events from the parents to progeny are possible, specified by the grand parental origin of the alleles inherited by this individual. Computing the probabilities of these transmission events is essential to perform QTL detection methods. Results A fast algorithm for the estimation of these probabilities conditional to parental phases has been developed. It is adapted to classical QTL detection designs applied to outbred populations, in particular to designs composed of half and/or full sib families. It assumes the absence of interference. Conclusion The theory is fully developed and an example is given.

Estimating species occurrence, abundance, and detection probability using zero-inflated distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Wenger, Seth J; Freeman, Mary C

2008-10-01

Researchers have developed methods to account for imperfect detection of species with either occupancy (presence absence) or count data using replicated sampling. We show how these approaches can be combined to simultaneously estimate occurrence, abundance, and detection probability by specifying a zero-inflated distribution for abundance. This approach may be particularly appropriate when patterns of occurrence and abundance arise from distinct processes operating at differing spatial or temporal scales. We apply the model to two data sets: (1) previously published data for a species of duck, Anas platyrhynchos, and (2) data for a stream fish species, Etheostoma scotti. We show that in these cases, an incomplete-detection zero-inflated modeling approach yields a superior fit to the data than other models. We propose that zero-inflated abundance models accounting for incomplete detection be considered when replicate count data are available.

Using areas of known occupancy to identify sources of variation in detection probability of raptors: taking time lowers replication effort for surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Murn, Campbell; Holloway, Graham J

2016-10-01

Species occurring at low density can be difficult to detect and if not properly accounted for, imperfect detection will lead to inaccurate estimates of occupancy. Understanding sources of variation in detection probability and how they can be managed is a key part of monitoring. We used sightings data of a low-density and elusive raptor (white-headed vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis ) in areas of known occupancy (breeding territories) in a likelihood-based modelling approach to calculate detection probability and the factors affecting it. Because occupancy was known a priori to be 100%, we fixed the model occupancy parameter to 1.0 and focused on identifying sources of variation in detection probability. Using detection histories from 359 territory visits, we assessed nine covariates in 29 candidate models. The model with the highest support indicated that observer speed during a survey, combined with temporal covariates such as time of year and length of time within a territory, had the highest influence on the detection probability. Averaged detection probability was 0.207 (s.e. 0.033) and based on this the mean number of visits required to determine within 95% confidence that white-headed vultures are absent from a breeding area is 13 (95% CI: 9-20). Topographical and habitat covariates contributed little to the best models and had little effect on detection probability. We highlight that low detection probabilities of some species means that emphasizing habitat covariates could lead to spurious results in occupancy models that do not also incorporate temporal components. While variation in detection probability is complex and influenced by effects at both temporal and spatial scales, temporal covariates can and should be controlled as part of robust survey methods. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for detection probability in occupancy studies, particularly during presence/absence studies for species such as raptors that are widespread and

Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

OpenAIRE

Melucci, Massimo

2011-01-01

The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

Estimating occurrence and detection probabilities for stream-breeding salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain

Science.gov (United States)

Lamb, Jennifer Y.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Qualls, Carl P.

2017-01-01

Large gaps exist in our knowledge of the ecology of stream-breeding plethodontid salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Data describing where these salamanders are likely to occur along environmental gradients, as well as their likelihood of detection, are important for the prevention and management of amphibian declines. We used presence/absence data from leaf litter bag surveys and a hierarchical Bayesian multispecies single-season occupancy model to estimate the occurrence of five species of plethodontids across reaches in headwater streams in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Average detection probabilities were high (range = 0.432–0.942) and unaffected by sampling covariates specific to the use of litter bags (i.e., bag submergence, sampling season, in-stream cover). Estimates of occurrence probabilities differed substantially between species (range = 0.092–0.703) and were influenced by the size of the upstream drainage area and by the maximum proportion of the reach that dried. The effects of these two factors were not equivalent across species. Our results demonstrate that hierarchical multispecies models successfully estimate occurrence parameters for both rare and common stream-breeding plethodontids. The resulting models clarify how species are distributed within stream networks, and they provide baseline values that will be useful in evaluating the conservation statuses of plethodontid species within lotic systems in the Gulf Coastal Plain.

Comparing a recursive digital filter with the moving-average and sequential probability-ratio detection methods for SNM portal monitors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fehlau, P.E.

1993-01-01

The author compared a recursive digital filter proposed as a detection method for French special nuclear material monitors with the author's detection methods, which employ a moving-average scaler or a sequential probability-ratio test. Each of these nine test subjects repeatedly carried a test source through a walk-through portal monitor that had the same nuisance-alarm rate with each method. He found that the average detection probability for the test source is also the same for each method. However, the recursive digital filter may have on drawback: its exponentially decreasing response to past radiation intensity prolongs the impact of any interference from radiation sources of radiation-producing machinery. He also examined the influence of each test subject on the monitor's operation by measuring individual attenuation factors for background and source radiation, then ranked the subjects' attenuation factors against their individual probabilities for detecting the test source. The one inconsistent ranking was probably caused by that subject's unusually long stride when passing through the portal

Investigating the probability of detection of typical cavity shapes through modelling and comparison of geophysical techniques

Science.gov (United States)

James, P.

2011-12-01

With a growing need for housing in the U.K., the government has proposed increased development of brownfield sites. However, old mine workings and natural cavities represent a potential hazard before, during and after construction on such sites, and add further complication to subsurface parameters. Cavities are hence a limitation to certain redevelopment and their detection is an ever important consideration. The current standard technique for cavity detection is a borehole grid, which is intrusive, non-continuous, slow and expensive. A new robust investigation standard in the detection of cavities is sought and geophysical techniques offer an attractive alternative. Geophysical techniques have previously been utilised successfully in the detection of cavities in various geologies, but still has an uncertain reputation in the engineering industry. Engineers are unsure of the techniques and are inclined to rely on well known techniques than utilise new technologies. Bad experiences with geophysics are commonly due to the indiscriminate choice of particular techniques. It is imperative that a geophysical survey is designed with the specific site and target in mind at all times, and the ability and judgement to rule out some, or all, techniques. To this author's knowledge no comparative software exists to aid technique choice. Also, previous modelling software limit the shapes of bodies and hence typical cavity shapes are not represented. Here, we introduce 3D modelling software (Matlab) which computes and compares the response to various cavity targets from a range of techniques (gravity, gravity gradient, magnetic, magnetic gradient and GPR). Typical near surface cavity shapes are modelled including shafts, bellpits, various lining and capping materials, and migrating voids. The probability of cavity detection is assessed in typical subsurface and noise conditions across a range of survey parameters. Techniques can be compared and the limits of detection distance

Posterior Probability Matching and Human Perceptual Decision Making.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard F Murray

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Probability matching is a classic theory of decision making that was first developed in models of cognition. Posterior probability matching, a variant in which observers match their response probabilities to the posterior probability of each response being correct, is being used increasingly often in models of perception. However, little is known about whether posterior probability matching is consistent with the vast literature on vision and hearing that has developed within signal detection theory. Here we test posterior probability matching models using two tools from detection theory. First, we examine the models' performance in a two-pass experiment, where each block of trials is presented twice, and we measure the proportion of times that the model gives the same response twice to repeated stimuli. We show that at low performance levels, posterior probability matching models give highly inconsistent responses across repeated presentations of identical trials. We find that practised human observers are more consistent across repeated trials than these models predict, and we find some evidence that less practised observers more consistent as well. Second, we compare the performance of posterior probability matching models on a discrimination task to the performance of a theoretical ideal observer that achieves the best possible performance. We find that posterior probability matching is very inefficient at low-to-moderate performance levels, and that human observers can be more efficient than is ever possible according to posterior probability matching models. These findings support classic signal detection models, and rule out a broad class of posterior probability matching models for expert performance on perceptual tasks that range in complexity from contrast discrimination to symmetry detection. However, our findings leave open the possibility that inexperienced observers may show posterior probability matching behaviour, and our methods

A New Method Based on Two-Stage Detection Mechanism for Detecting Ships in High-Resolution SAR Images

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xu Yongli

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Ship detection in synthetic aperture radar (SAR remote sensing images, being a fundamental but challenging problem in the field of satellite image analysis, plays an important role for a wide range of applications and is receiving significant attention in recent years. Aiming at the requirements of ship detection in high-resolution SAR images, the accuracy, the intelligent level, a better real-time operation and processing efficiency, The characteristics of ocean background and ship target in high-resolution SAR images were analyzed, we put forward a ship detection algorithm in high-resolution SAR images. The algorithm consists of two detection stages: The first step designs a pre-training classifier based on improved spectral residual visual model to obtain the visual salient regions containing ship targets quickly, then achieve the purpose of probably detection of ships. In the second stage, considering the Bayesian theory of binary hypothesis detection, a local maximum posterior probability (MAP classifier is designed for the classification of pixels. After the parameter estimation and judgment criterion, the classification of pixels are carried out in the target areas to achieve the classification of two types of pixels in the salient regions. In the paper, several types of satellite image data, such as TerraSAR-X (TS-X, Radarsat-2, are used to evaluate the performance of detection methods. Comparing with classical CFAR detection algorithms, experimental results show that the algorithm can achieve a better effect of suppressing false alarms, which caused by the speckle noise and ocean clutter background inhomogeneity. At the same time, the detection speed is increased by 25% to 45%.

Evaluating species richness: biased ecological inference results from spatial heterogeneity in species detection probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

McNew, Lance B.; Handel, Colleen M.

2015-01-01

Accurate estimates of species richness are necessary to test predictions of ecological theory and evaluate biodiversity for conservation purposes. However, species richness is difficult to measure in the field because some species will almost always be overlooked due to their cryptic nature or the observer's failure to perceive their cues. Common measures of species richness that assume consistent observability across species are inviting because they may require only single counts of species at survey sites. Single-visit estimation methods ignore spatial and temporal variation in species detection probabilities related to survey or site conditions that may confound estimates of species richness. We used simulated and empirical data to evaluate the bias and precision of raw species counts, the limiting forms of jackknife and Chao estimators, and multi-species occupancy models when estimating species richness to evaluate whether the choice of estimator can affect inferences about the relationships between environmental conditions and community size under variable detection processes. Four simulated scenarios with realistic and variable detection processes were considered. Results of simulations indicated that (1) raw species counts were always biased low, (2) single-visit jackknife and Chao estimators were significantly biased regardless of detection process, (3) multispecies occupancy models were more precise and generally less biased than the jackknife and Chao estimators, and (4) spatial heterogeneity resulting from the effects of a site covariate on species detection probabilities had significant impacts on the inferred relationships between species richness and a spatially explicit environmental condition. For a real dataset of bird observations in northwestern Alaska, the four estimation methods produced different estimates of local species richness, which severely affected inferences about the effects of shrubs on local avian richness. Overall, our results

Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bryan eCort

2013-10-01

Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.

Optimize the Coverage Probability of Prediction Interval for Anomaly Detection of Sensor-Based Monitoring Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingyue Pang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Effective anomaly detection of sensing data is essential for identifying potential system failures. Because they require no prior knowledge or accumulated labels, and provide uncertainty presentation, the probability prediction methods (e.g., Gaussian process regression (GPR and relevance vector machine (RVM are especially adaptable to perform anomaly detection for sensing series. Generally, one key parameter of prediction models is coverage probability (CP, which controls the judging threshold of the testing sample and is generally set to a default value (e.g., 90% or 95%. There are few criteria to determine the optimal CP for anomaly detection. Therefore, this paper designs a graphic indicator of the receiver operating characteristic curve of prediction interval (ROC-PI based on the definition of the ROC curve which can depict the trade-off between the PI width and PI coverage probability across a series of cut-off points. Furthermore, the Youden index is modified to assess the performance of different CPs, by the minimization of which the optimal CP is derived by the simulated annealing (SA algorithm. Experiments conducted on two simulation datasets demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. Especially, an actual case study on sensing series from an on-orbit satellite illustrates its significant performance in practical application.

Burden of high fracture probability worldwide: secular increases 2010-2040.

Science.gov (United States)

Odén, A; McCloskey, E V; Kanis, J A; Harvey, N C; Johansson, H

2015-09-01

The number of individuals aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture worldwide in 2010 was estimated at 158 million and is set to double by 2040. The aim of this study was to quantify the number of individuals worldwide aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture in 2010 and 2040. A threshold of high fracture probability was set at the age-specific 10-year probability of a major fracture (clinical vertebral, forearm, humeral or hip fracture) which was equivalent to that of a woman with a BMI of 24 kg/m(2) and a prior fragility fracture but no other clinical risk factors. The prevalence of high risk was determined worldwide and by continent using all available country-specific FRAX models and applied the population demography for each country. Twenty-one million men and 137 million women had a fracture probability at or above the threshold in the world for the year 2010. The greatest number of men and women at high risk were from Asia (55 %). Worldwide, the number of high-risk individuals is expected to double over the next 40 years. We conclude that individuals with high probability of osteoporotic fractures comprise a very significant disease burden to society, particularly in Asia, and that this burden is set to increase markedly in the future. These analyses provide a platform for the evaluation of risk assessment and intervention strategies.

Device to detect the presence of a pure signal in a discrete noisy signal measured at an average rate of constant noise with a probability of false detection lower than one predeterminated

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poussier, E.; Rambaut, M.

1986-01-01

Detection consists of a measurement of a counting rate. A probability of wrong detection is associated with this counting rate and with an average estimated rate of noise. Detection consists also in comparing the wrong detection probability to a predeterminated rate of wrong detection. The comparison can use tabulated values. Application is made to corpuscule radiation detection [fr

Monitoring Least Bitterns (Ixobrychis exilis) in Vermont: Detection probability and occupancy modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Cherukuri, Aswini; Strong, Allan; Donovan, Therese M.

2018-01-01

Ixobrychus exillis (Least Bittern) is listed as a species of high concern in the North American Waterbird Conservation Plan and is a US Fish and Wildlife Service migratory bird species of conservation concern in the Northeast. Little is known about the population of Least Bitterns in the Northeast because of their low population density, tendency to nest in dense wetland vegetation, and secretive behavior. Urban and agricultural development is expected to encroach on and degrade suitable wetland habitat; however, we cannot predict the effects on Least Bittern populations without more accurate information on their abundance and distribution. We conducted surveys of wetlands in Vermont to assess the efficacy of a monitoring protocol and to establish baseline Least Bittern abundance and distribution data at a sample of 29 wetland sites. Surveys yielded detections of 31 individuals at 15 of 29 sites across 3 biophysical regions and at 5 sites where occupancy had not been previously reported. Probability of occupancy was positively related to wetland size and number of patches, though the relationships were not strong enough to conclude if these were true determinants of occupancy. Call—response broadcast surveys yielded 30 detections, while passive surveys yielded 13. Call—response broadcasts (P = 0.897) increased the rate of detection by 55% compared to passive surveys (P = 0.577). Our results suggest that call—response broadcast surveys are an effective means of assessing Least Bittern occupancy and may reduce bias in long-term monitoring programs.

An Estimation of a Passive Infra-Red Sensor Probability of Detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osman, E.A.; El-Gazar, M.I.; Shaat, M.K.; El-Kafas, A.A.; Zidan, W.I.; Wadoud, A.A.

2009-01-01

Passive Infera-Red (PIR) sensors are one of many detection sensors are used to detect any intrusion process of the nuclear sites. In this work, an estimation of a PIR Sensor's Probability of Detection of a hypothetical facility is presented. sensor performance testing performed to determine whether a particular sensor will be acceptable in a proposed design. We have access to a sensor test field in which the sensor of interest is already properly installed and the parameters have been set to optimal levels by preliminary testing. The PIR sensor construction, operation and design for the investigated nuclear site are explained. Walking and running intrusion tests were carried out inside the field areas of the PIR sensor to evaluate the sensor performance during the intrusion process. 10 trials experimentally performed for achieving the intrusion process via a passive infra-red sensor's network system. The performance and intrusion senses of PIR sensors inside the internal zones was recorded and evaluated.

Probability of detection as a function of multiple influencing parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pavlovic, Mato

2014-10-15

Non-destructive testing is subject to measurement uncertainties. In safety critical applications the reliability assessment of its capability to detect flaws is therefore necessary. In most applications, the flaw size is the single most important parameter that influences the probability of detection (POD) of the flaw. That is why the POD is typically calculated and expressed as a function of the flaw size. The capability of the inspection system to detect flaws is established by comparing the size of reliably detected flaw with the size of the flaw that is critical for the structural integrity. Applications where several factors have an important influence on the POD are investigated in this dissertation. To devise a reliable estimation of the NDT system capability it is necessary to express the POD as a function of all these factors. A multi-parameter POD model is developed. It enables POD to be calculated and expressed as a function of several influencing parameters. The model was tested on the data from the ultrasonic inspection of copper and cast iron components with artificial flaws. Also, a technique to spatially present POD data called the volume POD is developed. The fusion of the POD data coming from multiple inspections of the same component with different sensors is performed to reach the overall POD of the inspection system.

Probability of detection as a function of multiple influencing parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pavlovic, Mato

2014-01-01

Non-destructive testing is subject to measurement uncertainties. In safety critical applications the reliability assessment of its capability to detect flaws is therefore necessary. In most applications, the flaw size is the single most important parameter that influences the probability of detection (POD) of the flaw. That is why the POD is typically calculated and expressed as a function of the flaw size. The capability of the inspection system to detect flaws is established by comparing the size of reliably detected flaw with the size of the flaw that is critical for the structural integrity. Applications where several factors have an important influence on the POD are investigated in this dissertation. To devise a reliable estimation of the NDT system capability it is necessary to express the POD as a function of all these factors. A multi-parameter POD model is developed. It enables POD to be calculated and expressed as a function of several influencing parameters. The model was tested on the data from the ultrasonic inspection of copper and cast iron components with artificial flaws. Also, a technique to spatially present POD data called the volume POD is developed. The fusion of the POD data coming from multiple inspections of the same component with different sensors is performed to reach the overall POD of the inspection system.

Hotspots ampersand other hidden targets: Probability of detection, number, frequency and area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vita, C.L.

1994-01-01

Concepts and equations are presented for making probability-based estimates of the detection probability, and the number, frequency, and area of hidden targets, including hotspots, at a given site. Targets include hotspots, which are areas of extreme or particular contamination, and any object or feature that is hidden from direct visual observation--including buried objects and geologic or hydrologic details or anomalies. Being Bayesian, results are fundamentally consistent with observational methods. Results are tools for planning or interpreting exploration programs used in site investigation or characterization, remedial design, construction, or compliance monitoring, including site closure. Used skillfully and creatively, these tools can help streamline and expedite environmental restoration, reducing time and cost, making site exploration cost-effective, and providing acceptable risk at minimum cost. 14 refs., 4 figs

A scan statistic for binary outcome based on hypergeometric probability model, with an application to detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Xing; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Feng, Zijian; Guo, Pengfei; He, Hongyan; Zhang, Tao; Duan, Lei; Li, Xiaosong

2013-01-01

As a useful tool for geographical cluster detection of events, the spatial scan statistic is widely applied in many fields and plays an increasingly important role. The classic version of the spatial scan statistic for the binary outcome is developed by Kulldorff, based on the Bernoulli or the Poisson probability model. In this paper, we apply the Hypergeometric probability model to construct the likelihood function under the null hypothesis. Compared with existing methods, the likelihood function under the null hypothesis is an alternative and indirect method to identify the potential cluster, and the test statistic is the extreme value of the likelihood function. Similar with Kulldorff's methods, we adopt Monte Carlo test for the test of significance. Both methods are applied for detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis in Sichuan province, China, in 2009, and the detected clusters are identical. Through a simulation to independent benchmark data, it is indicated that the test statistic based on the Hypergeometric model outweighs Kulldorff's statistics for clusters of high population density or large size; otherwise Kulldorff's statistics are superior.

Real Time Robot Soccer Game Event Detection Using Finite State Machines with Multiple Fuzzy Logic Probability Evaluators

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elmer P. Dadios

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a new algorithm for real time event detection using Finite State Machines with multiple Fuzzy Logic Probability Evaluators (FLPEs. A machine referee for a robot soccer game is developed and is used as the platform to test the proposed algorithm. A novel technique to detect collisions and other events in microrobot soccer game under inaccurate and insufficient information is presented. The robots' collision is used to determine goalkeeper charging and goal score events which are crucial for the machine referee's decisions. The Main State Machine (MSM handles the schedule of event activation. The FLPE calculates the probabilities of the true occurrence of the events. Final decisions about the occurrences of events are evaluated and compared through threshold crisp probability values. The outputs of FLPEs can be combined to calculate the probability of an event composed of subevents. Using multiple fuzzy logic system, the FLPE utilizes minimal number of rules and can be tuned individually. Experimental results show the accuracy and robustness of the proposed algorithm.

High probability of disease in angina pectoris patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høilund-Carlsen, Poul F.; Johansen, Allan; Vach, Werner

2007-01-01

BACKGROUND: According to most current guidelines, stable angina pectoris patients with a high probability of having coronary artery disease can be reliably identified clinically. OBJECTIVES: To examine the reliability of clinical evaluation with or without an at-rest electrocardiogram (ECG......) in patients with a high probability of coronary artery disease. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A prospective series of 357 patients referred for coronary angiography (CA) for suspected stable angina pectoris were examined by a trained physician who judged their type of pain and Canadian Cardiovascular Society grade...... on CA. Of the patients who had also an abnormal at-rest ECG, 14% to 21% of men and 42% to 57% of women had normal MPS. Sex-related differences were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical prediction appears to be unreliable. Addition of at-rest ECG data results in some improvement, particularly...

Decomposition of conditional probability for high-order symbolic Markov chains

Science.gov (United States)

Melnik, S. S.; Usatenko, O. V.

2017-07-01

The main goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the conditional probability function of random stationary ergodic symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. We elaborate on a decomposition procedure for the conditional probability function of sequences considered to be high-order Markov chains. We represent the conditional probability function as the sum of multilinear memory function monomials of different orders (from zero up to the chain order). This allows us to introduce a family of Markov chain models and to construct artificial sequences via a method of successive iterations, taking into account at each step increasingly high correlations among random elements. At weak correlations, the memory functions are uniquely expressed in terms of the high-order symbolic correlation functions. The proposed method fills the gap between two approaches, namely the likelihood estimation and the additive Markov chains. The obtained results may have applications for sequential approximation of artificial neural network training.

INVESTIGATION OF INFLUENCE OF ENCODING FUNCTION COMPLEXITY ON DISTRIBUTION OF ERROR MASKING PROBABILITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. B. Levina

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Error detection codes are mechanisms that enable robust delivery of data in unreliable communication channels and devices. Unreliable channels and devices are error-prone objects. Respectively, error detection codes allow detecting such errors. There are two classes of error detecting codes - classical codes and security-oriented codes. The classical codes have high percentage of detected errors; however, they have a high probability to miss an error in algebraic manipulation. In order, security-oriented codes are codes with a small Hamming distance and high protection to algebraic manipulation. The probability of error masking is a fundamental parameter of security-oriented codes. A detailed study of this parameter allows analyzing the behavior of the error-correcting code in the case of error injection in the encoding device. In order, the complexity of the encoding function plays an important role in the security-oriented codes. Encoding functions with less computational complexity and a low probability of masking are the best protection of encoding device against malicious acts. This paper investigates the influence of encoding function complexity on the error masking probability distribution. It will be shownthat the more complex encoding function reduces the maximum of error masking probability. It is also shown in the paper that increasing of the function complexity changes the error masking probability distribution. In particular, increasing of computational complexity decreases the difference between the maximum and average value of the error masking probability. Our resultshave shown that functions with greater complexity have smoothed maximums of error masking probability, which significantly complicates the analysis of error-correcting code by attacker. As a result, in case of complex encoding function the probability of the algebraic manipulation is reduced. The paper discusses an approach how to measure the error masking

Modeling detection probability to improve marsh bird surveys in southern Canada and the Great Lakes states

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Douglas C. Tozer

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Marsh birds are notoriously elusive, with variation in detection probability across species, regions, seasons, and different times of day and weather. Therefore, it is important to develop regional field survey protocols that maximize detections, but that also produce data for estimating and analytically adjusting for remaining differences in detections. We aimed to improve regional field survey protocols by estimating detection probability of eight elusive marsh bird species throughout two regions that have ongoing marsh bird monitoring programs: the southern Canadian Prairies (Prairie region and the southern portion of the Great Lakes basin and parts of southern Québec (Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region. We accomplished our goal using generalized binomial N-mixture models and data from ~22,300 marsh bird surveys conducted between 2008 and 2014 by Bird Studies Canada's Prairie, Great Lakes, and Québec Marsh Monitoring Programs. Across all species, on average, detection probability was highest in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region from the beginning of May until mid-June, and then fell throughout the remainder of the season until the end of June; was lowest in the Prairie region in mid-May and then increased throughout the remainder of the season until the end of June; was highest during darkness compared with light; and did not vary significantly according to temperature (range: 0-30°C, cloud cover (0%-100%, or wind (0-20 kph, or during morning versus evening. We used our results to formulate improved marsh bird survey protocols for each region. Our analysis and recommendations are useful and contribute to conservation of wetland birds at various scales from local single-species studies to the continental North American Marsh Bird Monitoring Program.

Probability of failure of the watershed algorithm for peak detection in comprehensive two-dimensional chromatography

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vivó-Truyols, G.; Janssen, H.-G.

2010-01-01

The watershed algorithm is the most common method used for peak detection and integration In two-dimensional chromatography However, the retention time variability in the second dimension may render the algorithm to fail A study calculating the probabilities of failure of the watershed algorithm was

Focus in High School Mathematics: Statistics and Probability

Science.gov (United States)

National Council of Teachers of Mathematics, 2009

2009-01-01

Reasoning about and making sense of statistics and probability are essential to students' future success. This volume belongs to a series that supports National Council of Teachers of Mathematics' (NCTM's) "Focus in High School Mathematics: Reasoning and Sense Making" by providing additional guidance for making reasoning and sense making part of…

Detecting and locating light atoms from high-resolution STEM images : The quest for a single optimal design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gonnissen, J; De Backer, A; den Dekker, A.J.; Sijbers, J.; Van Aert, S.

2016-01-01

In the present paper, the optimal detector design is investigated for both detecting and locating light atoms from high resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy (HR STEM) images. The principles of detection theory are used to quantify the probability of error for the detection of

Normal mammogram detection based on local probability difference transforms and support vector machines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiracharit, W.; Kumhom, P.; Chamnongthai, K.; Sun, Y.; Delp, E.J.; Babbs, C.F

2007-01-01

Automatic detection of normal mammograms, as a ''first look'' for breast cancer, is a new approach to computer-aided diagnosis. This approach may be limited, however, by two main causes. The first problem is the presence of poorly separable ''crossed-distributions'' in which the correct classification depends upon the value of each feature. The second problem is overlap of the feature distributions that are extracted from digitized mammograms of normal and abnormal patients. Here we introduce a new Support Vector Machine (SVM) based method utilizing with the proposed uncrossing mapping and Local Probability Difference (LPD). Crossed-distribution feature pairs are identified and mapped into a new features that can be separated by a zero-hyperplane of the new axis. The probability density functions of the features of normal and abnormal mammograms are then sampled and the local probability difference functions are estimated to enhance the features. From 1,000 ground-truth-known mammograms, 250 normal and 250 abnormal cases, including spiculated lesions, circumscribed masses or microcalcifications, are used for training a support vector machine. The classification results tested with another 250 normal and 250 abnormal sets show improved testing performances with 90% sensitivity and 89% specificity. (author)

Raman spectroscopy detection of platelet for Alzheimer’s disease with predictive probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, L J; Du, X Q; Du, Z W; Yang, Y Y; Chen, P; Wang, X H; Cheng, Y; Peng, J; Shen, A G; Hu, J M; Tian, Q; Shang, X L; Liu, Z C; Yao, X Q; Wang, J Z

2014-01-01

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a common form of dementia. Early and differential diagnosis of AD has always been an arduous task for the medical expert due to the unapparent early symptoms and the currently imperfect imaging examination methods. Therefore, obtaining reliable markers with clinical diagnostic value in easily assembled samples is worthy and significant. Our previous work with laser Raman spectroscopy (LRS), in which we detected platelet samples of different ages of AD transgenic mice and non-transgenic controls, showed great effect in the diagnosis of AD. In addition, a multilayer perception network (MLP) classification method was adopted to discriminate the spectral data. However, there were disturbances, which were induced by noise from the machines and so on, in the data set; thus the MLP method had to be trained with large-scale data. In this paper, we aim to re-establish the classification models of early and advanced AD and the control group with fewer features, and apply some mechanism of noise reduction to improve the accuracy of models. An adaptive classification method based on the Gaussian process (GP) featured, with predictive probabilities, is proposed, which could tell when a data set is related to some kind of disease. Compared with MLP on the same feature set, GP showed much better performance in the experimental results. What is more, since the spectra of platelets are isolated from AD, GP has good expansibility and can be applied in diagnosis of many other similar diseases, such as Parkinson’s disease (PD). Spectral data of 4 month and 12 month AD platelets, as well as control data, were collected. With predictive probabilities, the proposed GP classification method improved the diagnostic sensitivity to nearly 100%. Samples were also collected from PD platelets as classification and comparison to the 12 month AD. The presented approach and our experiments indicate that utilization of GP with predictive probabilities in

Re-assessment of road accident data-analysis policy : applying theory from involuntary, high-consequence, low-probability events like nuclear power plant meltdowns to voluntary, low-consequence, high-probability events like traffic accidents

Science.gov (United States)

2002-02-01

This report examines the literature on involuntary, high-consequence, low-probability (IHL) events like nuclear power plant meltdowns to determine what can be applied to the problem of voluntary, low-consequence high-probability (VLH) events like tra...

Highly accurate determination of relative gamma-ray detection efficiency for Ge detector and its application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miyahara, H.; Mori, C.; Fleming, R.F.; Dewaraja, Y.K.

1997-01-01

When quantitative measurements of γ-rays using High-Purity Ge (HPGe) detectors are made for a variety of applications, accurate knowledge of oy-ray detection efficiency is required. The emission rates of γ-rays from sources can be determined quickly in the case that the absolute peak efficiency is calibrated. On the other hand, the relative peak efficiencies can be used for determination of intensity ratios for plural samples and for comparison to the standard source. Thus, both absolute and relative detection efficiencies are important in use of γ-ray detector. The objective of this work is to determine the relative gamma-ray peak detection efficiency for an HPGe detector with the uncertainty approaching 0.1% . We used some nuclides which emit at least two gamma-rays with energies from 700 to 2400 keV for which the relative emission probabilities are known with uncertainties much smaller than 0.1%. The relative peak detection efficiencies were calculated from the measurements of the nuclides, 46 Sc, 48 Sc, 60 Co and 94 Nb, emitting two γ- rays with the emission probabilities of almost unity. It is important that various corrections for the emission probabilities, the cascade summing effect, and the self-absorption are small. A third order polynomial function on both logarithmic scales of energy and efficiency was fitted to the data, and the peak efficiency predicted at certain energy from covariance matrix showed the uncertainty less than 0.5% except for near 700 keV. As an application, the emission probabilities of the 1037.5 and 1212.9 keV γ-rays for 48 Sc were determined using the function of the highly precise relative peak efficiency. Those were 0.9777+0,.00079 and 0.02345+0.00017 for the 1037.5 and 1212.9 keV γ-rays, respectively. The sum of these probabilities is close to unity within the uncertainty which means that the certainties of the results are high and the accuracy has been improved considerably

Serial follow up V/P scanning in assessment of treatment response in high probability scans for pulmonary embolism

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moustafa, H; Elhaddad, SH; Wagih, SH; Ziada, G; Samy, A; Saber, R [Department of nuclear medicine and radiology, faculty of medicine, Cairo university, Cairo, (Egypt)

1995-10-01

138 patients proved with V/P scan to have different probabilities of pulmonary emboli event. Serial follow up scanning after 3 days, 2 weeks, 1 month and 3 months was done, with anticoagulant therapy. Out of the remaining 10 patients, 6 patients died with documented P.E. by P.M. study and lost follow up recorded in 4 patients. Complete response with disappearance of all perfusion defects after 2 weeks was detected in 37 patients (49.3%), partial improvement of lesions after 3 months was elicited in 32%. The overall incidence of response was (81.3%) such response was complete in low probability group (100%), (84.2%) in intermediate group and (79.3%) in high probability group with partial response in 45.3%. New lesions were evident in 18.7% of this series. To conclude that serial follow up V/P scan is mandatory for evaluation of response to anticoagulant therapy specially in first 3 months. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

Kepler Planet Reliability Metrics: Astrophysical Positional Probabilities for Data Release 25

Science.gov (United States)

Bryson, Stephen T.; Morton, Timothy D.

2017-01-01

This document is very similar to KSCI-19092-003, Planet Reliability Metrics: Astrophysical Positional Probabilities, which describes the previous release of the astrophysical positional probabilities for Data Release 24. The important changes for Data Release 25 are:1. The computation of the astrophysical positional probabilities uses the Data Release 25 processed pixel data for all Kepler Objects of Interest.2. Computed probabilities now have associated uncertainties, whose computation is described in x4.1.3.3. The scene modeling described in x4.1.2 uses background stars detected via ground-based high-resolution imaging, described in x5.1, that are not in the Kepler Input Catalog or UKIRT catalog. These newly detected stars are presented in Appendix B. Otherwise the text describing the algorithms and examples is largely unchanged from KSCI-19092-003.

Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate

Science.gov (United States)

Bremer, J. E.; Harter, T.

2012-08-01

Onsite wastewater treatment systems are common in rural and semi-rural areas around the world; in the US, about 25-30% of households are served by a septic (onsite) wastewater treatment system, and many property owners also operate their own domestic well nearby. Site-specific conditions and local groundwater flow are often ignored when installing septic systems and wells. In areas with small lots (thus high spatial septic system densities), shallow domestic wells are prone to contamination by septic system leachate. Mass balance approaches have been used to determine a maximum septic system density that would prevent contamination of groundwater resources. In this study, a source area model based on detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling is applied for a stochastic analysis of domestic well contamination by septic leachate. Specifically, we determine the probability that a source area overlaps with a septic system drainfield as a function of aquifer properties, septic system density and drainfield size. We show that high spatial septic system density poses a high probability of pumping septic system leachate. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has a strong influence on the intersection probability. We find that mass balance calculations applied on a regional scale underestimate the contamination risk of individual drinking water wells by septic systems. This is particularly relevant for contaminants released at high concentrations, for substances that experience limited attenuation, and those that are harmful even at low concentrations (e.g., pathogens).

Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. E. Bremer

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Onsite wastewater treatment systems are common in rural and semi-rural areas around the world; in the US, about 25–30% of households are served by a septic (onsite wastewater treatment system, and many property owners also operate their own domestic well nearby. Site-specific conditions and local groundwater flow are often ignored when installing septic systems and wells. In areas with small lots (thus high spatial septic system densities, shallow domestic wells are prone to contamination by septic system leachate. Mass balance approaches have been used to determine a maximum septic system density that would prevent contamination of groundwater resources. In this study, a source area model based on detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling is applied for a stochastic analysis of domestic well contamination by septic leachate. Specifically, we determine the probability that a source area overlaps with a septic system drainfield as a function of aquifer properties, septic system density and drainfield size. We show that high spatial septic system density poses a high probability of pumping septic system leachate. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has a strong influence on the intersection probability. We find that mass balance calculations applied on a regional scale underestimate the contamination risk of individual drinking water wells by septic systems. This is particularly relevant for contaminants released at high concentrations, for substances that experience limited attenuation, and those that are harmful even at low concentrations (e.g., pathogens.

The correct estimate of the probability of false detection of the matched filter in weak-signal detection problems . II. Further results with application to a set of ALMA and ATCA data

Science.gov (United States)

Vio, R.; Vergès, C.; Andreani, P.

2017-08-01

The matched filter (MF) is one of the most popular and reliable techniques to the detect signals of known structure and amplitude smaller than the level of the contaminating noise. Under the assumption of stationary Gaussian noise, MF maximizes the probability of detection subject to a constant probability of false detection or false alarm (PFA). This property relies upon a priori knowledge of the position of the searched signals, which is usually not available. Recently, it has been shown that when applied in its standard form, MF may severely underestimate the PFA. As a consequence the statistical significance of features that belong to noise is overestimated and the resulting detections are actually spurious. For this reason, an alternative method of computing the PFA has been proposed that is based on the probability density function (PDF) of the peaks of an isotropic Gaussian random field. In this paper we further develop this method. In particular, we discuss the statistical meaning of the PFA and show that, although useful as a preliminary step in a detection procedure, it is not able to quantify the actual reliability of a specific detection. For this reason, a new quantity is introduced called the specific probability of false alarm (SPFA), which is able to carry out this computation. We show how this method works in targeted simulations and apply it to a few interferometric maps taken with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) and the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA). We select a few potential new point sources and assign an accurate detection reliability to these sources.

Identifying Changes in the Probability of High Temperature, High Humidity Heat Wave Events

Science.gov (United States)

Ballard, T.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2016-12-01

Understanding how heat waves will respond to climate change is critical for adequate planning and adaptation. While temperature is the primary determinant of heat wave severity, humidity has been shown to play a key role in heat wave intensity with direct links to human health and safety. Here we investigate the individual contributions of temperature and specific humidity to extreme heat wave conditions in recent decades. Using global NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II daily data, we identify regional variability in the joint probability distribution of humidity and temperature. We also identify a statistically significant positive trend in humidity over the eastern U.S. during heat wave events, leading to an increased probability of high humidity, high temperature events. The extent to which we can expect this trend to continue under climate change is complicated due to variability between CMIP5 models, in particular among projections of humidity. However, our results support the notion that heat wave dynamics are characterized by more than high temperatures alone, and understanding and quantifying the various components of the heat wave system is crucial for forecasting future impacts.

What is the probability that direct detection experiments have observed dark matter?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bozorgnia, Nassim; Schwetz, Thomas

2014-01-01

In Dark Matter direct detection we are facing the situation of some experiments reporting positive signals which are in conflict with limits from other experiments. Such conclusions are subject to large uncertainties introduced by the poorly known local Dark Matter distribution. We present a method to calculate an upper bound on the joint probability of obtaining the outcome of two potentially conflicting experiments under the assumption that the Dark Matter hypothesis is correct, but completely independent of assumptions about the Dark Matter distribution. In this way we can quantify the compatibility of two experiments in an astrophysics independent way. We illustrate our method by testing the compatibility of the hints reported by DAMA and CDMS-Si with the limits from the LUX and SuperCDMS experiments. The method does not require Monte Carlo simulations but is mostly based on using Poisson statistics. In order to deal with signals of few events we introduce the so-called ''signal length'' to take into account energy information. The signal length method provides a simple way to calculate the probability to obtain a given experimental outcome under a specified Dark Matter and background hypothesis

Increasing Classroom Compliance: Using a High-Probability Command Sequence with Noncompliant Students

Science.gov (United States)

Axelrod, Michael I.; Zank, Amber J.

2012-01-01

Noncompliance is one of the most problematic behaviors within the school setting. One strategy to increase compliance of noncompliant students is a high-probability command sequence (HPCS; i.e., a set of simple commands in which an individual is likely to comply immediately prior to the delivery of a command that has a lower probability of…

Multidetector computed tomographic pulmonary angiography in patients with a high clinical probability of pulmonary embolism.

Science.gov (United States)

Moores, L; Kline, J; Portillo, A K; Resano, S; Vicente, A; Arrieta, P; Corres, J; Tapson, V; Yusen, R D; Jiménez, D

2016-01-01

ESSENTIALS: When high probability of pulmonary embolism (PE), sensitivity of computed tomography (CT) is unclear. We investigated the sensitivity of multidetector CT among 134 patients with a high probability of PE. A normal CT alone may not safely exclude PE in patients with a high clinical pretest probability. In patients with no clear alternative diagnosis after CTPA, further testing should be strongly considered. Whether patients with a negative multidetector computed tomographic pulmonary angiography (CTPA) result and a high clinical pretest probability of pulmonary embolism (PE) should be further investigated is controversial. This was a prospective investigation of the sensitivity of multidetector CTPA among patients with a priori clinical assessment of a high probability of PE according to the Wells criteria. Among patients with a negative CTPA result, the diagnosis of PE required at least one of the following conditions: ventilation/perfusion lung scan showing a high probability of PE in a patient with no history of PE, abnormal findings on venous ultrasonography in a patient without previous deep vein thrombosis at that site, or the occurrence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in a 3-month follow-up period after anticoagulation was withheld because of a negative multidetector CTPA result. We identified 498 patients with a priori clinical assessment of a high probability of PE and a completed CTPA study. CTPA excluded PE in 134 patients; in these patients, the pooled incidence of VTE was 5.2% (seven of 134 patients; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5-9.0). Five patients had VTEs that were confirmed by an additional imaging test despite a negative CTPA result (five of 48 patients; 10.4%; 95% CI 1.8-19.1), and two patients had objectively confirmed VTEs that occurred during clinical follow-up of at least 3 months (two of 86 patients; 2.3%; 95% CI 0-5.5). None of the patients had a fatal PE during follow-up. A normal multidetector CTPA result alone may not safely

High But Not Low Probability of Gain Elicits a Positive Feeling Leading to the Framing Effect

Science.gov (United States)

Gosling, Corentin J.; Moutier, Sylvain

2017-01-01

Human risky decision-making is known to be highly susceptible to profit-motivated responses elicited by the way in which options are framed. In fact, studies investigating the framing effect have shown that the choice between sure and risky options depends on how these options are presented. Interestingly, the probability of gain of the risky option has been highlighted as one of the main factors causing variations in susceptibility to the framing effect. However, while it has been shown that high probabilities of gain of the risky option systematically lead to framing bias, questions remain about the influence of low probabilities of gain. Therefore, the first aim of this paper was to clarify the respective roles of high and low probabilities of gain in the framing effect. Due to the difference between studies using a within- or between-subjects design, we conducted a first study investigating the respective roles of these designs. For both designs, we showed that trials with a high probability of gain led to the framing effect whereas those with a low probability did not. Second, as emotions are known to play a key role in the framing effect, we sought to determine whether they are responsible for such a debiasing effect of the low probability of gain. Our second study thus investigated the relationship between emotion and the framing effect depending on high and low probabilities. Our results revealed that positive emotion was related to risk-seeking in the loss frame, but only for trials with a high probability of gain. Taken together, these results support the interpretation that low probabilities of gain suppress the framing effect because they prevent the positive emotion of gain anticipation. PMID:28232808

High But Not Low Probability of Gain Elicits a Positive Feeling Leading to the Framing Effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Gosling, Corentin J; Moutier, Sylvain

2017-01-01

Human risky decision-making is known to be highly susceptible to profit-motivated responses elicited by the way in which options are framed. In fact, studies investigating the framing effect have shown that the choice between sure and risky options depends on how these options are presented. Interestingly, the probability of gain of the risky option has been highlighted as one of the main factors causing variations in susceptibility to the framing effect. However, while it has been shown that high probabilities of gain of the risky option systematically lead to framing bias, questions remain about the influence of low probabilities of gain. Therefore, the first aim of this paper was to clarify the respective roles of high and low probabilities of gain in the framing effect. Due to the difference between studies using a within- or between-subjects design, we conducted a first study investigating the respective roles of these designs. For both designs, we showed that trials with a high probability of gain led to the framing effect whereas those with a low probability did not. Second, as emotions are known to play a key role in the framing effect, we sought to determine whether they are responsible for such a debiasing effect of the low probability of gain. Our second study thus investigated the relationship between emotion and the framing effect depending on high and low probabilities. Our results revealed that positive emotion was related to risk-seeking in the loss frame, but only for trials with a high probability of gain. Taken together, these results support the interpretation that low probabilities of gain suppress the framing effect because they prevent the positive emotion of gain anticipation.

Detection and Classification of Low Probability of Intercept Radar Signals Using Parallel Filter Arrays and Higher Order Statistics

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Taboada, Fernando

2002-01-01

Low probability of intercept (LPI) is that property of an emitter that because of its low power, wide bandwidth, frequency variability, or other design attributes, makes it difficult to be detected or identified by means of passive...

Unconventional signal detection techniques with Gaussian probability mixtures adaptation in non-AWGN channels: full resolution receiver

Science.gov (United States)

Chabdarov, Shamil M.; Nadeev, Adel F.; Chickrin, Dmitry E.; Faizullin, Rashid R.

2011-04-01

In this paper we discuss unconventional detection technique also known as «full resolution receiver». This receiver uses Gaussian probability mixtures for interference structure adaptation. Full resolution receiver is alternative to conventional matched filter receivers in the case of non-Gaussian interferences. For the DS-CDMA forward channel with presence of complex interferences sufficient performance increasing was shown.

A study on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction achieved by non-destructive inspection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cronvall, O.; Simola, K.; Männistö, I.; Gunnars, J.; Alverlind, L.; Dillström, P.; Gandossi, L.

2012-01-01

Leakages and ruptures of piping components lead to reduction or loss of the pressure retaining capability of the system, and thus contribute to the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. In-service inspection (ISI) aims at verifying that defects are not present in components of the pressure boundary or, if defects are present, ensuring that these are detected before they affect the safe operation of the plant. Reliability estimates of piping are needed e.g., in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) studies, risk-informed ISI (RI-ISI) applications, and other structural reliability assessments. Probabilistic fracture mechanics models can account for ISI reliability, but a quantitative estimate for the latter is needed. This is normally expressed in terms of probability of detection (POD) curves, which correlate the probability of detecting a flaw with flaw size. A detailed POD curve is often difficult (or practically impossible) to obtain. If sufficient risk reduction can be shown by using simplified (but reasonably conservative) POD estimates, more complex PODs are not needed. This paper summarises the results of a study on the effect of piping inspection reliability assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified POD curve. Further, the study compared various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of analysis cases. The results indicate that the use of a simplified POD could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications.

Rapid Target Detection in High Resolution Remote Sensing Images Using Yolo Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Z.; Chen, X.; Gao, Y.; Li, Y.

2018-04-01

Object detection in high resolution remote sensing images is a fundamental and challenging problem in the field of remote sensing imagery analysis for civil and military application due to the complex neighboring environments, which can cause the recognition algorithms to mistake irrelevant ground objects for target objects. Deep Convolution Neural Network(DCNN) is the hotspot in object detection for its powerful ability of feature extraction and has achieved state-of-the-art results in Computer Vision. Common pipeline of object detection based on DCNN consists of region proposal, CNN feature extraction, region classification and post processing. YOLO model frames object detection as a regression problem, using a single CNN predicts bounding boxes and class probabilities in an end-to-end way and make the predict faster. In this paper, a YOLO based model is used for object detection in high resolution sensing images. The experiments on NWPU VHR-10 dataset and our airport/airplane dataset gain from GoogleEarth show that, compare with the common pipeline, the proposed model speeds up the detection process and have good accuracy.

Reliability assessment for thickness measurements of pipe wall using probability of detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakamoto, Hiroyuki; Kojima, Fumio; Kato, Sho

2013-01-01

This paper proposes a reliability assessment method for thickness measurements of pipe wall using probability of detection (POD). Thicknesses of pipes are measured by qualified inspectors with ultrasonic thickness gauges. The inspection results are affected by human factors of the inspectors and include some errors, because the inspectors have different experiences and frequency of inspections. In order to ensure reliability for inspection results, first, POD evaluates experimental results of pipe-wall thickness inspection. We verify that the results have differences depending on inspectors including qualified inspectors. Second, two human factors that affect POD are indicated. Finally, it is confirmed that POD can identify the human factors and ensure reliability for pipe-wall thickness inspections. (author)

The probability distribution of intergranular stress corrosion cracking life for sensitized 304 stainless steels in high temperature, high purity water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akashi, Masatsune; Kenjyo, Takao; Matsukura, Shinji; Kawamoto, Teruaki

1984-01-01

In order to discuss the probability distribution of intergranular stress corrsion carcking life for sensitized 304 stainless steels, a series of the creviced bent beem (CBB) and the uni-axial constant load tests were carried out in oxygenated high temperature, high purity water. The following concludions were resulted; (1) The initiation process of intergranular stress corrosion cracking has been assumed to be approximated by the Poisson stochastic process, based on the CBB test results. (2) The probability distribution of intergranular stress corrosion cracking life may consequently be approximated by the exponential probability distribution. (3) The experimental data could be fitted to the exponential probability distribution. (author)

Estimating factors influencing the detection probability of semiaquatic freshwater snails using quadrat survey methods

Science.gov (United States)

Roesler, Elizabeth L.; Grabowski, Timothy B.

2018-01-01

Developing effective monitoring methods for elusive, rare, or patchily distributed species requires extra considerations, such as imperfect detection. Although detection is frequently modeled, the opportunity to assess it empirically is rare, particularly for imperiled species. We used Pecos assiminea (Assiminea pecos), an endangered semiaquatic snail, as a case study to test detection and accuracy issues surrounding quadrat searches. Quadrats (9 × 20 cm; n = 12) were placed in suitable Pecos assiminea habitat and randomly assigned a treatment, defined as the number of empty snail shells (0, 3, 6, or 9). Ten observers rotated through each quadrat, conducting 5-min visual searches for shells. The probability of detecting a shell when present was 67.4 ± 3.0%, but it decreased with the increasing litter depth and fewer number of shells present. The mean (± SE) observer accuracy was 25.5 ± 4.3%. Accuracy was positively correlated to the number of shells in the quadrat and negatively correlated to the number of times a quadrat was searched. The results indicate quadrat surveys likely underrepresent true abundance, but accurately determine the presence or absence. Understanding detection and accuracy of elusive, rare, or imperiled species improves density estimates and aids in monitoring and conservation efforts.

Extending the Generalised Pareto Distribution for Novelty Detection in High-Dimensional Spaces.

Science.gov (United States)

Clifton, David A; Clifton, Lei; Hugueny, Samuel; Tarassenko, Lionel

2014-01-01

Novelty detection involves the construction of a "model of normality", and then classifies test data as being either "normal" or "abnormal" with respect to that model. For this reason, it is often termed one-class classification. The approach is suitable for cases in which examples of "normal" behaviour are commonly available, but in which cases of "abnormal" data are comparatively rare. When performing novelty detection, we are typically most interested in the tails of the normal model, because it is in these tails that a decision boundary between "normal" and "abnormal" areas of data space usually lies. Extreme value statistics provides an appropriate theoretical framework for modelling the tails of univariate (or low-dimensional) distributions, using the generalised Pareto distribution (GPD), which can be demonstrated to be the limiting distribution for data occurring within the tails of most practically-encountered probability distributions. This paper provides an extension of the GPD, allowing the modelling of probability distributions of arbitrarily high dimension, such as occurs when using complex, multimodel, multivariate distributions for performing novelty detection in most real-life cases. We demonstrate our extension to the GPD using examples from patient physiological monitoring, in which we have acquired data from hospital patients in large clinical studies of high-acuity wards, and in which we wish to determine "abnormal" patient data, such that early warning of patient physiological deterioration may be provided.

Detection probabilities for time-domain velocity estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

1991-01-01

programs, it is demonstrated that the probability of correct estimation depends on the signal-to-noise ratio, transducer bandwidth, number of A-lines and number of samples used in the correlation estimate. The influence of applying a stationary echo-canceler is explained. The echo canceling can be modeled...

High-Speed Video System for Micro-Expression Detection and Recognition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diana Borza

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Micro-expressions play an essential part in understanding non-verbal communication and deceit detection. They are involuntary, brief facial movements that are shown when a person is trying to conceal something. Automatic analysis of micro-expression is challenging due to their low amplitude and to their short duration (they occur as fast as 1/15 to 1/25 of a second. We propose a fully micro-expression analysis system consisting of a high-speed image acquisition setup and a software framework which can detect the frames when the micro-expressions occurred as well as determine the type of the emerged expression. The detection and classification methods use fast and simple motion descriptors based on absolute image differences. The recognition module it only involves the computation of several 2D Gaussian probabilities. The software framework was tested on two publicly available high speed micro-expression databases and the whole system was used to acquire new data. The experiments we performed show that our solution outperforms state of the art works which use more complex and computationally intensive descriptors.

Probability in High Dimension

Science.gov (United States)

2014-06-30

precisely the content of the following result. The price we pay is that the assumption that A is a packing in (F, k ·k1) is too weak to make this happen...Regularité des trajectoires des fonctions aléatoires gaussiennes. In: École d’Été de Probabilités de Saint- Flour , IV-1974, pp. 1–96. Lecture Notes in...Lectures on probability theory and statistics (Saint- Flour , 1994), Lecture Notes in Math., vol. 1648, pp. 165–294. Springer, Berlin (1996) 50. Ledoux

High temperature triggers latent variation among individuals: oviposition rate and probability for outbreaks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christer Björkman

2011-01-01

Full Text Available It is anticipated that extreme population events, such as extinctions and outbreaks, will become more frequent as a consequence of climate change. To evaluate the increased probability of such events, it is crucial to understand the mechanisms involved. Variation between individuals in their response to climatic factors is an important consideration, especially if microevolution is expected to change the composition of populations.Here we present data of a willow leaf beetle species, showing high variation among individuals in oviposition rate at a high temperature (20 °C. It is particularly noteworthy that not all individuals responded to changes in temperature; individuals laying few eggs at 20 °C continued to do so when transferred to 12 °C, whereas individuals that laid many eggs at 20 °C reduced their oviposition and laid the same number of eggs as the others when transferred to 12 °C. When transferred back to 20 °C most individuals reverted to their original oviposition rate. Thus, high variation among individuals was only observed at the higher temperature. Using a simple population model and based on regional climate change scenarios we show that the probability of outbreaks increases if there is a realistic increase in the number of warm summers. The probability of outbreaks also increased with increasing heritability of the ability to respond to increased temperature.If climate becomes warmer and there is latent variation among individuals in their temperature response, the probability for outbreaks may increase. However, the likelihood for microevolution to play a role may be low. This conclusion is based on the fact that it has been difficult to show that microevolution affect the probability for extinctions. Our results highlight the urge for cautiousness when predicting the future concerning probabilities for extreme population events.

Probability of Detection (POD) as a statistical model for the validation of qualitative methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Wehling, Paul; LaBudde, Robert A; Brunelle, Sharon L; Nelson, Maria T

2011-01-01

A statistical model is presented for use in validation of qualitative methods. This model, termed Probability of Detection (POD), harmonizes the statistical concepts and parameters between quantitative and qualitative method validation. POD characterizes method response with respect to concentration as a continuous variable. The POD model provides a tool for graphical representation of response curves for qualitative methods. In addition, the model allows comparisons between candidate and reference methods, and provides calculations of repeatability, reproducibility, and laboratory effects from collaborative study data. Single laboratory study and collaborative study examples are given.

Probability of detecting perchlorate under natural conditions in deep groundwater in California and the Southwestern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Fram, Miranda S.; Belitz, Kenneth

2011-01-01

We use data from 1626 groundwater samples collected in California, primarily from public drinking water supply wells, to investigate the distribution of perchlorate in deep groundwater under natural conditions. The wells were sampled for the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Priority Basin Project. We develop a logistic regression model for predicting probabilities of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than multiple threshold concentrations as a function of climate (represented by an aridity index) and potential anthropogenic contributions of perchlorate (quantified as an anthropogenic score, AS). AS is a composite categorical variable including terms for nitrate, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds. Incorporating water-quality parameters in AS permits identification of perturbation of natural occurrence patterns by flushing of natural perchlorate salts from unsaturated zones by irrigation recharge as well as addition of perchlorate from industrial and agricultural sources. The data and model results indicate low concentrations (0.1-0.5 μg/L) of perchlorate occur under natural conditions in groundwater across a wide range of climates, beyond the arid to semiarid climates in which they mostly have been previously reported. The probability of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than 0.1 μg/L under natural conditions ranges from 50-70% in semiarid to arid regions of California and the Southwestern United States to 5-15% in the wettest regions sampled (the Northern California coast). The probability of concentrations above 1 μg/L under natural conditions is low (generally <3%).

Probability of crack-initiation and application to NDE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prantl, G [Nuclear Safety Inspectorate HSK, (Switzerland)

1988-12-31

Fracture toughness is a property with a certain variability. When a statistical distribution is assumed, the probability of crack initiation may be calculated for a given problem defined by its geometry and the applied stress. Experiments have shown, that cracks which experience a certain small amount of ductile growth can reliably be detected by acoustic emission measurements. The probability of crack detection by AE-techniques may be estimated using this experimental finding and the calculated probability of crack initiation. (author).

Rejecting probability summation for radial frequency patterns, not so Quick!

Science.gov (United States)

Baldwin, Alex S; Schmidtmann, Gunnar; Kingdom, Frederick A A; Hess, Robert F

2016-05-01

Radial frequency (RF) patterns are used to assess how the visual system processes shape. They are thought to be detected globally. This is supported by studies that have found summation for RF patterns to be greater than what is possible if the parts were being independently detected and performance only then improved with an increasing number of cycles by probability summation between them. However, the model of probability summation employed in these previous studies was based on High Threshold Theory (HTT), rather than Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We conducted rating scale experiments to investigate the receiver operating characteristics. We find these are of the curved form predicted by SDT, rather than the straight lines predicted by HTT. This means that to test probability summation we must use a model based on SDT. We conducted a set of summation experiments finding that thresholds decrease as the number of modulated cycles increases at approximately the same rate as previously found. As this could be consistent with either additive or probability summation, we performed maximum-likelihood fitting of a set of summation models (Matlab code provided in our Supplementary material) and assessed the fits using cross validation. We find we are not able to distinguish whether the responses to the parts of an RF pattern are combined by additive or probability summation, because the predictions are too similar. We present similar results for summation between separate RF patterns, suggesting that the summation process there may be the same as that within a single RF. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effect of High Frequency Pulse on the Discharge Probability in Micro EDM

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y.; Qu, Y.; Zhang, W.; Ma, F.; Sha, Z.; Wang, Y.; Rolfe, B.; Zhang, S.

2017-12-01

High frequency pulse improves the machining efficiency of micro electric discharge machining (micro EDM), while it also brings some changes in micro EDM process. This paper focuses on the influence of skin-effect under the high frequency pulse on energy distribution and transmission in micro EDM, based on which, the rules of discharge probability of electrode end face are also analysed. On the basis of the electrical discharge process under the condition of high frequency pulse in micro EDM, COMSOL Multiphysics software is used to establish energy transmission model in micro electrode. The discharge energy distribution and transmission within tool electrode under different pulse frequencies, electrical currents, and permeability situation are studied in order to get the distribution pattern of current density and electric field intensity in the electrode end face under the influence of electrical parameters change. The electric field intensity distribution is regarded as the influencing parameter of discharge probability on the electrode end. Finally, MATLAB is used to fit the curve and obtain the distribution of discharge probability of electrode end face.

Physicochemical properties determining the detection probability of tryptic peptides in Fourier transform mass spectrometry. A correlation study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Michael L; Savitski, Mikhail M; Kjeldsen, Frank

2004-01-01

Sequence verification and mapping of posttranslational modifications require nearly 100% sequence coverage in the "bottom-up" protein analysis. Even in favorable cases, routine liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry detects from protein digests peptides covering 50-90% of the sequence. Here we...... investigated the reasons for limited peptide detection, considering various physicochemical aspects of peptide behavior in liquid chromatography-Fourier transform mass spectrometry (LC-FTMS). No overall correlation was found between the detection probability and peptide mass. In agreement with literature data...... between pI and signal response. An explanation of this paradoxal behavior was found through the observation that more acidic tryptic peptide lengths tend to be longer. Longer peptides tend to acquire higher average charge state in positive mode electrospray ionization than more basic but shorter...

Comparing rapid methods for detecting Listeria in seafood and environmental samples using the most probably number (MPN) technique.

Science.gov (United States)

Cruz, Cristina D; Win, Jessicah K; Chantarachoti, Jiraporn; Mutukumira, Anthony N; Fletcher, Graham C

2012-02-15

The standard Bacteriological Analytical Manual (BAM) protocol for detecting Listeria in food and on environmental surfaces takes about 96 h. Some studies indicate that rapid methods, which produce results within 48 h, may be as sensitive and accurate as the culture protocol. As they only give presence/absence results, it can be difficult to compare the accuracy of results generated. We used the Most Probable Number (MPN) technique to evaluate the performance and detection limits of six rapid kits for detecting Listeria in seafood and on an environmental surface compared with the standard protocol. Three seafood products and an environmental surface were inoculated with similar known cell concentrations of Listeria and analyzed according to the manufacturers' instructions. The MPN was estimated using the MPN-BAM spreadsheet. For the seafood products no differences were observed among the rapid kits and efficiency was similar to the BAM method. On the environmental surface the BAM protocol had a higher recovery rate (sensitivity) than any of the rapid kits tested. Clearview™, Reveal®, TECRA® and VIDAS® LDUO detected the cells but only at high concentrations (>10(2) CFU/10 cm(2)). Two kits (VIP™ and Petrifilm™) failed to detect 10(4) CFU/10 cm(2). The MPN method was a useful tool for comparing the results generated by these presence/absence test kits. There remains a need to develop a rapid and sensitive method for detecting Listeria in environmental samples that performs as well as the BAM protocol, since none of the rapid tests used in this study achieved a satisfactory result. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tuned by experience: How orientation probability modulates early perceptual processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Jabar, Syaheed B; Filipowicz, Alex; Anderson, Britt

2017-09-01

Probable stimuli are more often and more quickly detected. While stimulus probability is known to affect decision-making, it can also be explained as a perceptual phenomenon. Using spatial gratings, we have previously shown that probable orientations are also more precisely estimated, even while participants remained naive to the manipulation. We conducted an electrophysiological study to investigate the effect that probability has on perception and visual-evoked potentials. In line with previous studies on oddballs and stimulus prevalence, low-probability orientations were associated with a greater late positive 'P300' component which might be related to either surprise or decision-making. However, the early 'C1' component, thought to reflect V1 processing, was dampened for high-probability orientations while later P1 and N1 components were unaffected. Exploratory analyses revealed a participant-level correlation between C1 and P300 amplitudes, suggesting a link between perceptual processing and decision-making. We discuss how these probability effects could be indicative of sharpening of neurons preferring the probable orientations, due either to perceptual learning, or to feature-based attention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal Sample Size for Probability of Detection Curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Annis, Charles; Gandossi, Luca; Martin, Oliver

2012-01-01

The use of Probability of Detection (POD) curves to quantify NDT reliability is common in the aeronautical industry, but relatively less so in the nuclear industry. The European Network for Inspection Qualification's (ENIQ) Inspection Qualification Methodology is based on the concept of Technical Justification, a document assembling all the evidence to assure that the NDT system in focus is indeed capable of finding the flaws for which it was designed. This methodology has become widely used in many countries, but the assurance it provides is usually of qualitative nature. The need to quantify the output of inspection qualification has become more important, especially as structural reliability modelling and quantitative risk-informed in-service inspection methodologies become more widely used. To credit the inspections in structural reliability evaluations, a measure of the NDT reliability is necessary. A POD curve provides such metric. In 2010 ENIQ developed a technical report on POD curves, reviewing the statistical models used to quantify inspection reliability. Further work was subsequently carried out to investigate the issue of optimal sample size for deriving a POD curve, so that adequate guidance could be given to the practitioners of inspection reliability. Manufacturing of test pieces with cracks that are representative of real defects found in nuclear power plants (NPP) can be very expensive. Thus there is a tendency to reduce sample sizes and in turn reduce the conservatism associated with the POD curve derived. Not much guidance on the correct sample size can be found in the published literature, where often qualitative statements are given with no further justification. The aim of this paper is to summarise the findings of such work. (author)

A Probability Co-Kriging Model to Account for Reporting Bias and Recognize Areas at High Risk for Zebra Mussels and Eurasian Watermilfoil Invasions in Minnesota

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaushi S. T. Kanankege

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Zebra mussels (ZMs (Dreissena polymorpha and Eurasian watermilfoil (EWM (Myriophyllum spicatum are aggressive aquatic invasive species posing a conservation burden on Minnesota. Recognizing areas at high risk for invasion is a prerequisite for the implementation of risk-based prevention and mitigation management strategies. The early detection of invasion has been challenging, due in part to the imperfect observation process of invasions including the absence of a surveillance program, reliance on public reporting, and limited resource availability, which results in reporting bias. To predict the areas at high risk for invasions, while accounting for underreporting, we combined network analysis and probability co-kriging to estimate the risk of ZM and EWM invasions. We used network analysis to generate a waterbody-specific variable representing boater traffic, a known high risk activity for human-mediated transportation of invasive species. In addition, co-kriging was used to estimate the probability of species introduction, using waterbody-specific variables. A co-kriging model containing distance to the nearest ZM infested location, boater traffic, and road access was used to recognize the areas at high risk for ZM invasions (AUC = 0.78. The EWM co-kriging model included distance to the nearest EWM infested location, boater traffic, and connectivity to infested waterbodies (AUC = 0.76. Results suggested that, by 2015, nearly 20% of the waterbodies in Minnesota were at high risk of ZM (12.45% or EWM (12.43% invasions, whereas only 125/18,411 (0.67% and 304/18,411 (1.65% are currently infested, respectively. Prediction methods presented here can support decisions related to solving the problems of imperfect detection, which subsequently improve the early detection of biological invasions.

A Probability Co-Kriging Model to Account for Reporting Bias and Recognize Areas at High Risk for Zebra Mussels and Eurasian Watermilfoil Invasions in Minnesota.

Science.gov (United States)

Kanankege, Kaushi S T; Alkhamis, Moh A; Phelps, Nicholas B D; Perez, Andres M

2017-01-01

Zebra mussels (ZMs) ( Dreissena polymorpha ) and Eurasian watermilfoil (EWM) ( Myriophyllum spicatum ) are aggressive aquatic invasive species posing a conservation burden on Minnesota. Recognizing areas at high risk for invasion is a prerequisite for the implementation of risk-based prevention and mitigation management strategies. The early detection of invasion has been challenging, due in part to the imperfect observation process of invasions including the absence of a surveillance program, reliance on public reporting, and limited resource availability, which results in reporting bias. To predict the areas at high risk for invasions, while accounting for underreporting, we combined network analysis and probability co-kriging to estimate the risk of ZM and EWM invasions. We used network analysis to generate a waterbody-specific variable representing boater traffic, a known high risk activity for human-mediated transportation of invasive species. In addition, co-kriging was used to estimate the probability of species introduction, using waterbody-specific variables. A co-kriging model containing distance to the nearest ZM infested location, boater traffic, and road access was used to recognize the areas at high risk for ZM invasions (AUC = 0.78). The EWM co-kriging model included distance to the nearest EWM infested location, boater traffic, and connectivity to infested waterbodies (AUC = 0.76). Results suggested that, by 2015, nearly 20% of the waterbodies in Minnesota were at high risk of ZM (12.45%) or EWM (12.43%) invasions, whereas only 125/18,411 (0.67%) and 304/18,411 (1.65%) are currently infested, respectively. Prediction methods presented here can support decisions related to solving the problems of imperfect detection, which subsequently improve the early detection of biological invasions.

Technologies for detection of nuclear materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeVolpi, A.

1996-01-01

Detection of smuggled nuclear materials at transit points requires monitoring unknown samples in large closed packages. This review contends that high-confidence nuclear-material detection requires induced fission as the primary mechanism, with passive radiation screening in a complementary role. With the right equipment, even small quantities of nuclear materials are detectable with a high probability at transit points. The equipment could also be linked synergistically with detectors of other contrabond. For screening postal mail and packages, passive monitors are probably more cost-effective. When a suspicious item is detected, a single active probe could then be used. Until active systems become mass produced, this two-stage screening/interrogation role for active/passive equipment is more economic for cargo at border crossings. For widespread monitoring of nuclear smuggling, it will probably be necessary to develop a system for simultaneously detecting most categories of contraband, including explosives and illicit drugs. With control of nuclear materials at known storage sites being the first line of defense, detection capabilities at international borders could establish a viable second line of defense against smuggling

Nonlinear detection for a high rate extended binary phase shift keying system.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xian-Qing; Wu, Le-Nan

2013-03-28

The algorithm and the results of a nonlinear detector using a machine learning technique called support vector machine (SVM) on an efficient modulation system with high data rate and low energy consumption is presented in this paper. Simulation results showed that the performance achieved by the SVM detector is comparable to that of a conventional threshold decision (TD) detector. The two detectors detect the received signals together with the special impacting filter (SIF) that can improve the energy utilization efficiency. However, unlike the TD detector, the SVM detector concentrates not only on reducing the BER of the detector, but also on providing accurate posterior probability estimates (PPEs), which can be used as soft-inputs of the LDPC decoder. The complexity of this detector is considered in this paper by using four features and simplifying the decision function. In addition, a bandwidth efficient transmission is analyzed with both SVM and TD detector. The SVM detector is more robust to sampling rate than TD detector. We find that the SVM is suitable for extended binary phase shift keying (EBPSK) signal detection and can provide accurate posterior probability for LDPC decoding.

Nonlinear Detection for a High Rate Extended Binary Phase Shift Keying System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Le-Nan Wu

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The algorithm and the results of a nonlinear detector using a machine learning technique called support vector machine (SVM on an efficient modulation system with high data rate and low energy consumption is presented in this paper. Simulation results showed that the performance achieved by the SVM detector is comparable to that of a conventional threshold decision (TD detector. The two detectors detect the received signals together with the special impacting filter (SIF that can improve the energy utilization efficiency. However, unlike the TD detector, the SVM detector concentrates not only on reducing the BER of the detector, but also on providing accurate posterior probability estimates (PPEs, which can be used as soft-inputs of the LDPC decoder. The complexity of this detector is considered in this paper by using four features and simplifying the decision function. In addition, a bandwidth efficient transmission is analyzed with both SVM and TD detector. The SVM detector is more robust to sampling rate than TD detector. We find that the SVM is suitable for extended binary phase shift keying (EBPSK signal detection and can provide accurate posterior probability for LDPC decoding.

Detecting and locating light atoms from high-resolution STEM images: The quest for a single optimal design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gonnissen, J.; De Backer, A. [Electron Microscopy for Materials Science (EMAT), University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp (Belgium); Dekker, A.J. den [iMinds-Vision Lab, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk (Belgium); Delft Center for Systems and Control (DCSC), Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 2, 2628 CD Delft (Netherlands); Sijbers, J. [iMinds-Vision Lab, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk (Belgium); Van Aert, S., E-mail: sandra.vanaert@uantwerpen.be [Electron Microscopy for Materials Science (EMAT), University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp (Belgium)

2016-11-15

In the present paper, the optimal detector design is investigated for both detecting and locating light atoms from high resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy (HR STEM) images. The principles of detection theory are used to quantify the probability of error for the detection of light atoms from HR STEM images. To determine the optimal experiment design for locating light atoms, use is made of the so-called Cramér–Rao Lower Bound (CRLB). It is investigated if a single optimal design can be found for both the detection and location problem of light atoms. Furthermore, the incoming electron dose is optimised for both research goals and it is shown that picometre range precision is feasible for the estimation of the atom positions when using an appropriate incoming electron dose under the optimal detector settings to detect light atoms. - Highlights: • The optimal detector design to detect and locate light atoms in HR STEM is derived. • The probability of error is quantified and used to detect light atoms. • The Cramér–Rao lower bound is calculated to determine the atomic column precision. • Both measures are evaluated and result in the single optimal LAADF detector regime. • The incoming electron dose is optimised for both research goals.

Poor concordance of spiral CT (SCT) and high probability ventilation-perfusion (V/Q) studies in the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism (PE)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roman, M.R.; Angelides, S.; Chen, N.

2000-01-01

Full text: Despite its limitations, V/Q scintigraphy remains the favoured non-invasive technique for the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism (PE). PE is present in 85-90% and 30-40% of high and intermediate probability V/Q studies respectively. The value of spiral CT (SCT), a newer imaging modality, has yet to be determined. The aims of this study were to determine the frequency of positive SCT for PE in high and intermediate probability V/Q studies performed within 24hr apart. 15 patients (6M, 9F, mean age - 70.2) with a high probability study were included. Six (40%) SCT were reported as positive (four with emboli present in the main pulmonary arteries), seven as negative, one equivocal and one was technically sub-optimal. Pulmonary angiography was not performed in any patient. In all seven negative studies, the SCT was performed before the V/Q study. Of these, two studies were revised to positive once the result of the V/Q study was known, while, three others had resolving mismatch V/Q defects on follow-up studies (performed 5-14 days later); two of these three also had a positive duplex scan of the lower limbs. One other was most likely due to chronic thromboembolic disease. Only three patients had a V/Q scan prior to the SCT; all were positive for PE on both imaging modalities. Of 26 patients (11M, 15F, mean age - 68.5) with an intermediate probability V/Q study, SCT was positive in only two (8%). Thus the low detection rate of PE by SCT in this albeit small series, raises doubts as to its role in the diagnosis of PE. Copyright (2000) The Australian and New Zealand Society of Nuclear Medicine Inc

Failure probability estimate of type 304 stainless steel piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daugherty, W.L.; Awadalla, N.G.; Sindelar, R.L.; Mehta, H.S.; Ranganath, S.

1989-01-01

The primary source of in-service degradation of the SRS production reactor process water piping is intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC). IGSCC has occurred in a limited number of weld heat affected zones, areas known to be susceptible to IGSCC. A model has been developed to combine crack growth rates, crack size distributions, in-service examination reliability estimates and other considerations to estimate the pipe large-break frequency. This frequency estimates the probability that an IGSCC crack will initiate, escape detection by ultrasonic (UT) examination, and grow to instability prior to extending through-wall and being detected by the sensitive leak detection system. These events are combined as the product of four factors: (1) the probability that a given weld heat affected zone contains IGSCC; (2) the conditional probability, given the presence of IGSCC, that the cracking will escape detection during UT examination; (3) the conditional probability, given a crack escapes detection by UT, that it will not grow through-wall and be detected by leakage; (4) the conditional probability, given a crack is not detected by leakage, that it grows to instability prior to the next UT exam. These four factors estimate the occurrence of several conditions that must coexist in order for a crack to lead to a large break of the process water piping. When evaluated for the SRS production reactors, they produce an extremely low break frequency. The objective of this paper is to present the assumptions, methodology, results and conclusions of a probabilistic evaluation for the direct failure of the primary coolant piping resulting from normal operation and seismic loads. This evaluation was performed to support the ongoing PRA effort and to complement deterministic analyses addressing the credibility of a double-ended guillotine break

Narrow CSF space at high convexity and high midline areas in idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus detected by axial and coronal MRI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sasaki, Makoto; Honda, Satoshi; Yuasa, Tatsuhiko; Iwamura, Akihide; Shibata, Eri; Ohba, Hideki

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the performance of axial and coronal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in detecting the narrowing of the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) space at the high convexity and high midline areas, which is speculated to be one of the clinical characteristics of idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH). We retrospectively examined axial and coronal T1-weighted images of 14 iNPH patients and 12 age-matched controls. The narrowness of the CSF space at the high convexity/midline was blindly evaluated by five raters using a continuous confidence rating scale for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Axial and coronal imaging accurately determined the presence of the narrow cisterns/sulci at the high convexity/midline and was capable of predicting probable/definite iNPH with a high degree of accuracy. there were also no significant differences in the detection of this finding between the axial and coronal images. Both axial and coronal T1-weighted MRI can detect the narrow CSF space at the high convexity/midline accurately and may therefore facilitate clinicians in choosing a management strategy for iNPH patients. (orig.)

Narrow CSF space at high convexity and high midline areas in idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus detected by axial and coronal MRI

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sasaki, Makoto [Iwate Medical University, Department of Radiology, Morioka (Japan); Honda, Satoshi [St. Luke' s International Hospital, Department of Radiology, Tokyo (Japan); Yuasa, Tatsuhiko; Iwamura, Akihide [Kohnodai Hospital, National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Department of Neurology, Ichikawa (Japan); Shibata, Eri [Iwate Medical University, Department of Neuropsychiatry, Morioka (Japan); Ohba, Hideki [Iwate Medical University, Department of Neurology, Morioka (Japan)

2008-02-15

The aim of this study was to determine the performance of axial and coronal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in detecting the narrowing of the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) space at the high convexity and high midline areas, which is speculated to be one of the clinical characteristics of idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH). We retrospectively examined axial and coronal T1-weighted images of 14 iNPH patients and 12 age-matched controls. The narrowness of the CSF space at the high convexity/midline was blindly evaluated by five raters using a continuous confidence rating scale for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Axial and coronal imaging accurately determined the presence of the narrow cisterns/sulci at the high convexity/midline and was capable of predicting probable/definite iNPH with a high degree of accuracy. there were also no significant differences in the detection of this finding between the axial and coronal images. Both axial and coronal T1-weighted MRI can detect the narrow CSF space at the high convexity/midline accurately and may therefore facilitate clinicians in choosing a management strategy for iNPH patients. (orig.)

Probabilistic analysis of Millstone Unit 3 ultimate containment failure probability given high pressure: Chapter 14

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bickel, J.H.

1983-01-01

The quantification of the containment event trees in the Millstone Unit 3 Probabilistic Safety Study utilizes a conditional probability of failure given high pressure which is based on a new approach. The generation of this conditional probability was based on a weakest link failure mode model which considered contributions from a number of overlapping failure modes. This overlap effect was due to a number of failure modes whose mean failure pressures were clustered within a 5 psi range and which had uncertainties due to variances in material strengths and analytical uncertainties which were between 9 and 15 psi. Based on a review of possible probability laws to describe the failure probability of individual structural failure modes, it was determined that a Weibull probability law most adequately described the randomness in the physical process of interest. The resultant conditional probability of failure is found to have a median failure pressure of 132.4 psia. The corresponding 5-95 percentile values are 112 psia and 146.7 psia respectively. The skewed nature of the conditional probability of failure vs. pressure results in a lower overall containment failure probability for an appreciable number of the severe accident sequences of interest, but also probabilities which are more rigorously traceable from first principles

METHOD OF FOREST FIRES PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT WITH POISSON LAW

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Plotnikova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article describes the method for the forest fire burn probability estimation on a base of Poisson distribution. The λ parameter is assumed to be a mean daily number of fires detected for each Forest Fire Danger Index class within specific period of time. Thus, λ was calculated for spring, summer and autumn seasons separately. Multi-annual daily Forest Fire Danger Index values together with EO-derived hot spot map were input data for the statistical analysis. The major result of the study is generation of the database on forest fire burn probability. Results were validated against EO daily data on forest fires detected over Irkutsk oblast in 2013. Daily weighted average probability was shown to be linked with the daily number of detected forest fires. Meanwhile, there was found a number of fires which were developed when estimated probability was low. The possible explanation of this phenomenon was provided.

Spatial probability aids visual stimulus discrimination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Druker

2010-08-01

Full Text Available We investigated whether the statistical predictability of a target's location would influence how quickly and accurately it was classified. Recent results have suggested that spatial probability can be a cue for the allocation of attention in visual search. One explanation for probability cuing is spatial repetition priming. In our two experiments we used probability distributions that were continuous across the display rather than relying on a few arbitrary screen locations. This produced fewer spatial repeats and allowed us to dissociate the effect of a high probability location from that of short-term spatial repetition. The task required participants to quickly judge the color of a single dot presented on a computer screen. In Experiment 1, targets were more probable in an off-center hotspot of high probability that gradually declined to a background rate. Targets garnered faster responses if they were near earlier target locations (priming and if they were near the high probability hotspot (probability cuing. In Experiment 2, target locations were chosen on three concentric circles around fixation. One circle contained 80% of targets. The value of this ring distribution is that it allowed for a spatially restricted high probability zone in which sequentially repeated trials were not likely to be physically close. Participant performance was sensitive to the high-probability circle in addition to the expected effects of eccentricity and the distance to recent targets. These two experiments suggest that inhomogeneities in spatial probability can be learned and used by participants on-line and without prompting as an aid for visual stimulus discrimination and that spatial repetition priming is not a sufficient explanation for this effect. Future models of attention should consider explicitly incorporating the probabilities of targets locations and features.

High-energy Neutrino Emission from Short Gamma-Ray Bursts: Prospects for Coincident Detection with Gravitational Waves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kimura, Shigeo S.; Murase, Kohta; Mészáros, Peter [Department of Physics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Kiuchi, Kenta [Center for Gravitational Physics, Yukawa Institute for Theoretical Physics, Kyoto, Kyoto 606-8502 (Japan)

2017-10-10

We investigate current and future prospects for coincident detection of high-energy neutrinos and gravitational waves (GWs). Short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) are believed to originate from mergers of compact star binaries involving neutron stars. We estimate high-energy neutrino fluences from prompt emission, extended emission (EE), X-ray flares, and plateau emission, and we show that neutrino signals associated with the EE are the most promising. Assuming that the cosmic-ray loading factor is ∼10 and the Lorentz factor distribution is lognormal, we calculate the probability of neutrino detection from EE by current and future neutrino detectors, and we find that the quasi-simultaneous detection of high-energy neutrinos, gamma-rays, and GWs is possible with future instruments or even with current instruments for nearby SGRBs having EE. We also discuss stacking analyses that will also be useful with future experiments such as IceCube-Gen2.

Study of the photo-detection efficiency of FBK High-Density silicon photomultipliers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zappalà, G.; Regazzoni, V.; Acerbi, F.; Ferri, A.; Gola, A.; Paternoster, G.; Zorzi, N.; Piemonte, C.

2016-01-01

This work presents a study of the factors contributing to the Photo-Detection Efficiency of Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPMs): Quantum Efficiency, Triggering Probability and Fill Factor. Two different SiPM High-Density technologies are tested, NUV-HD, based on n-on-p junction, and RGB-HD, based on p-on-n junction, developed at FBK, Trento. The quantum efficiency was measured on photodiodes produced along with the SiPMs. The triggering probability, as a function of wavelength and bias voltage, was measured on circular Single Photon Avalanche Diodes (SPADs) with 100% fill factor. Square SPADs, having the same layout of single SiPM cells, were studied to measure the effective fill factor and compare it to the nominal value. The comparison of the circular and square SPADs allows to get the transition region size between the effective active area of the cell and the one defined by the layout.

Probability modeling of high flow extremes in Yingluoxia watershed, the upper reaches of Heihe River basin

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhanling; Li, Zhanjie; Li, Chengcheng

2014-05-01

Probability modeling of hydrological extremes is one of the major research areas in hydrological science. Most basins in humid and semi-humid south and east of China are concerned for probability modeling analysis of high flow extremes. While, for the inland river basin which occupies about 35% of the country area, there is a limited presence of such studies partly due to the limited data availability and a relatively low mean annual flow. The objective of this study is to carry out probability modeling of high flow extremes in the upper reach of Heihe River basin, the second largest inland river basin in China, by using the peak over threshold (POT) method and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), in which the selection of threshold and inherent assumptions for POT series are elaborated in details. For comparison, other widely used probability distributions including generalized extreme value (GEV), Lognormal, Log-logistic and Gamma are employed as well. Maximum likelihood estimate is used for parameter estimations. Daily flow data at Yingluoxia station from 1978 to 2008 are used. Results show that, synthesizing the approaches of mean excess plot, stability features of model parameters, return level plot and the inherent independence assumption of POT series, an optimum threshold of 340m3/s is finally determined for high flow extremes in Yingluoxia watershed. The resulting POT series is proved to be stationary and independent based on Mann-Kendall test, Pettitt test and autocorrelation test. In terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test and several graphical diagnostics such as quantile and cumulative density function plots, GPD provides the best fit to high flow extremes in the study area. The estimated high flows for long return periods demonstrate that, as the return period increasing, the return level estimates are probably more uncertain. The frequency of high flow extremes exhibits a very slight but not significant decreasing trend from 1978 to

The perception of probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

2014-01-01

We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Saliency Detection via Absorbing Markov Chain With Learnt Transition Probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Lihe Zhang; Jianwu Ai; Bowen Jiang; Huchuan Lu; Xiukui Li

2018-02-01

In this paper, we propose a bottom-up saliency model based on absorbing Markov chain (AMC). First, a sparsely connected graph is constructed to capture the local context information of each node. All image boundary nodes and other nodes are, respectively, treated as the absorbing nodes and transient nodes in the absorbing Markov chain. Then, the expected number of times from each transient node to all other transient nodes can be used to represent the saliency value of this node. The absorbed time depends on the weights on the path and their spatial coordinates, which are completely encoded in the transition probability matrix. Considering the importance of this matrix, we adopt different hierarchies of deep features extracted from fully convolutional networks and learn a transition probability matrix, which is called learnt transition probability matrix. Although the performance is significantly promoted, salient objects are not uniformly highlighted very well. To solve this problem, an angular embedding technique is investigated to refine the saliency results. Based on pairwise local orderings, which are produced by the saliency maps of AMC and boundary maps, we rearrange the global orderings (saliency value) of all nodes. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on six publicly available benchmark data sets.

Midcourse Guidance Law Based on High Target Acquisition Probability Considering Angular Constraint and Line-of-Sight Angle Rate Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Random disturbance factors would lead to the variation of target acquisition point during the long distance flight. To acquire a high target acquisition probability and improve the impact precision, missiles should be guided to an appropriate target acquisition position with certain attitude angles and line-of-sight (LOS angle rate. This paper has presented a new midcourse guidance law considering the influences of random disturbances, detection distance restraint, and target acquisition probability with Monte Carlo simulation. Detailed analyses of the impact points on the ground and the random distribution of the target acquisition position in the 3D space are given to get the appropriate attitude angles and the end position for the midcourse guidance. Then, a new formulation biased proportional navigation (BPN guidance law with angular constraint and LOS angle rate control has been derived to ensure the tracking ability when attacking the maneuvering target. Numerical simulations demonstrates that, compared with the proportional navigation guidance (PNG law and the near-optimal spatial midcourse guidance (NSMG law, BPN guidance law demonstrates satisfactory performances and can meet both the midcourse terminal angular constraint and the LOS angle rate requirement.

Probability of fracture and life extension estimate of the high-flux isotope reactor vessel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, S.J.

1998-01-01

The state of the vessel steel embrittlement as a result of neutron irradiation can be measured by its increase in ductile-brittle transition temperature (DBTT) for fracture, often denoted by RT NDT for carbon steel. This transition temperature can be calibrated by the drop-weight test and, sometimes, by the Charpy impact test. The life extension for the high-flux isotope reactor (HFIR) vessel is calculated by using the method of fracture mechanics that is incorporated with the effect of the DBTT change. The failure probability of the HFIR vessel is limited as the life of the vessel by the reactor core melt probability of 10 -4 . The operating safety of the reactor is ensured by periodic hydrostatic pressure test (hydrotest). The hydrotest is performed in order to determine a safe vessel static pressure. The fracture probability as a result of the hydrostatic pressure test is calculated and is used to determine the life of the vessel. Failure to perform hydrotest imposes the limit on the life of the vessel. The conventional method of fracture probability calculations such as that used by the NRC-sponsored PRAISE CODE and the FAVOR CODE developed in this Laboratory are based on the Monte Carlo simulation. Heavy computations are required. An alternative method of fracture probability calculation by direct probability integration is developed in this paper. The present approach offers simple and expedient ways to obtain numerical results without losing any generality. In this paper, numerical results on (1) the probability of vessel fracture, (2) the hydrotest time interval, and (3) the hydrotest pressure as a result of the DBTT increase are obtained

Model-assisted probability of detection of flaws in aluminum blocks using polynomial chaos expansions

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Xiaosong; Leifsson, Leifur; Grandin, Robert; Meeker, William; Roberts, Ronald; Song, Jiming

2018-04-01

Probability of detection (POD) is widely used for measuring reliability of nondestructive testing (NDT) systems. Typically, POD is determined experimentally, while it can be enhanced by utilizing physics-based computational models in combination with model-assisted POD (MAPOD) methods. With the development of advanced physics-based methods, such as ultrasonic NDT testing, the empirical information, needed for POD methods, can be reduced. However, performing accurate numerical simulations can be prohibitively time-consuming, especially as part of stochastic analysis. In this work, stochastic surrogate models for computational physics-based measurement simulations are developed for cost savings of MAPOD methods while simultaneously ensuring sufficient accuracy. The stochastic surrogate is used to propagate the random input variables through the physics-based simulation model to obtain the joint probability distribution of the output. The POD curves are then generated based on those results. Here, the stochastic surrogates are constructed using non-intrusive polynomial chaos (NIPC) expansions. In particular, the NIPC methods used are the quadrature, ordinary least-squares (OLS), and least-angle regression sparse (LARS) techniques. The proposed approach is demonstrated on the ultrasonic testing simulation of a flat bottom hole flaw in an aluminum block. The results show that the stochastic surrogates have at least two orders of magnitude faster convergence on the statistics than direct Monte Carlo sampling (MCS). Moreover, the evaluation of the stochastic surrogate models is over three orders of magnitude faster than the underlying simulation model for this case, which is the UTSim2 model.

Cooperative Detection for Primary User in Cognitive Radio Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhu Jia

2009-01-01

Full Text Available We propose two novel cooperative detection schemes based on the AF (Amplify and Forward and DF (Decode and Forward protocols to achieve spatial diversity gains for cognitive radio networks, which are referred to as the AF-CDS, (AF-based Cooperative Detection Scheme and DF-CDS (DF-based Cooperative Detection Scheme, respectively. Closed-form expressions of detection probabilities for the noncooperation scheme, AND-CDS (AND-based Cooperative Detection Scheme, AF-CDS and DF-CDS, are derived over Rayleigh fading channels. Also, we analyze the overall agility for the proposed cooperative detection schemes and show that our schemes can further reduce the detection time. In addition, we compare the DF-CDS with the AF-CDS in terms of detection probability and agility gain, depicting the advantage of DF-CDS at low SNR region and high false alarm probability region.

High resolution surface scanning of Thick-GEM for single photo-electron detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamar, G.; Varga, D.

2012-01-01

An optical system for high resolution scanning of TGEM UV photon detection systems is introduced. The structure exploits the combination of a single Au-coated TGEM under study, and an asymmetric MWPC (Close Cathode Chamber) as post-amplification stage. A pulsed UV LED source with emission down to 240 nm has been focused to a spot of 0.07 mm on the TGEM surface, and single photo-electron charge spectra has been recorded over selected two dimensional regions. This way, the TGEM gain (order of 10–100) and TGEM photo-electron detection efficiency is clearly separated, unlike in case of continuous illumination. The surface structure connected to the TGEM photon detection is well observable, including inefficiencies in the holes and at the symmetry points between holes. The detection efficiency as well as the gas gain are fluctuating from hole to hole. The gain is constant in the hexagon around any hole, pointing to the fact that the gain depends on hole geometry, and less on the position where the electron enters. The detection probability map strongly changes with the field strength above the TGEM surface, in relation to the change of the actual surface field configuration. The results can be confronted with position-dependent simulations of TGEM electron transfer and gas multiplication. -- Highlights: ► First demonstration of Thick GEM surface scanning with single photo-electrons. ► Resolution of 0.1 mm is sufficient to identify structures connected to TGEM surface field structure. ► Gain and detection efficiency and separately measurable. ► Detection efficiency is high in a ring around the holes, and gain is constant in the hexagonal collection regions.

Variable terrestrial GPS telemetry detection rates: Addressing the probability of successful acquisitions

Science.gov (United States)

Ironside, Kirsten E.; Mattson, David J.; Choate, David; Stoner, David; Arundel, Terry; Hansen, Jered R.; Theimer, Tad; Holton, Brandon; Jansen, Brian; Sexton, Joseph O.; Longshore, Kathleen M.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Peters, Michael

2017-01-01

Studies using global positioning system (GPS) telemetry rarely result in 100% fix success rates (FSR), which may bias datasets because data loss is systematic rather than a random process. Previous spatially explicit models developed to correct for sampling bias have been limited to small study areas, a small range of data loss, or were study-area specific. We modeled environmental effects on FSR from desert to alpine biomes, investigated the full range of potential data loss (0–100% FSR), and evaluated whether animal body position can contribute to lower FSR because of changes in antenna orientation based on GPS detection rates for 4 focal species: cougars (Puma concolor), desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus). Terrain exposure and height of over story vegetation were the most influential factors affecting FSR. Model evaluation showed a strong correlation (0.88) between observed and predicted FSR and no significant differences between predicted and observed FSRs using 2 independent validation datasets. We found that cougars and canyon-dwelling bighorn sheep may select for environmental features that influence their detectability by GPS technology, mule deer may select against these features, and elk appear to be nonselective. We observed temporal patterns in missed fixes only for cougars. We provide a model for cougars, predicting fix success by time of day that is likely due to circadian changes in collar orientation and selection of daybed sites. We also provide a model predicting the probability of GPS fix acquisitions given environmental conditions, which had a strong relationship (r 2 = 0.82) with deployed collar FSRs across species.

Irish study of high-density Schizophrenia families: Field methods and power to detect linkage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kendler, K.S.; Straub, R.E.; MacLean, C.J. [Virginia Commonwealth Univ., Richmond, VA (United States)] [and others

1996-04-09

Large samples of multiplex pedigrees will probably be needed to detect susceptibility loci for schizophrenia by linkage analysis. Standardized ascertainment of such pedigrees from culturally and ethnically homogeneous populations may improve the probability of detection and replication of linkage. The Irish Study of High-Density Schizophrenia Families (ISHDSF) was formed from standardized ascertainment of multiplex schizophrenia families in 39 psychiatric facilities covering over 90% of the population in Ireland and Northern Ireland. We here describe a phenotypic sample and a subset thereof, the linkage sample. Individuals were included in the phenotypic sample if adequate diagnostic information, based on personal interview and/or hospital record, was available. Only individuals with available DNA were included in the linkage sample. Inclusion of a pedigree into the phenotypic sample required at least two first, second, or third degree relatives with non-affective psychosis (NAP), one of whom had schizophrenia (S) or poor-outcome schizoaffective disorder (PO-SAD). Entry into the linkage sample required DNA samples on at least two individuals with NAP, of whom at least one had S or PO-SAD. Affection was defined by narrow, intermediate, and broad criteria. 75 refs., 6 tabs.

Lamb wave-based damage quantification and probability of detection modeling for fatigue life assessment of riveted lap joint

Science.gov (United States)

He, Jingjing; Wang, Dengjiang; Zhang, Weifang

2015-03-01

This study presents an experimental and modeling study for damage detection and quantification in riveted lap joints. Embedded lead zirconate titanate piezoelectric (PZT) ceramic wafer-type sensors are employed to perform in-situ non-destructive testing during fatigue cyclical loading. A multi-feature integration method is developed to quantify the crack size using signal features of correlation coefficient, amplitude change, and phase change. In addition, probability of detection (POD) model is constructed to quantify the reliability of the developed sizing method. Using the developed crack size quantification method and the resulting POD curve, probabilistic fatigue life prediction can be performed to provide comprehensive information for decision-making. The effectiveness of the overall methodology is demonstrated and validated using several aircraft lap joint specimens from different manufactures and under different loading conditions.

Risk-averse decision-making for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability, high-consequence events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cha, Eun Jeong; Ellingwood, Bruce R.

2012-01-01

Quantitative analysis and assessment of risk to civil infrastructure has two components: probability of a potentially damaging event and consequence of damage, measured in terms of financial or human losses. Decision models that have been utilized during the past three decades take into account the probabilistic component rationally, but address decision-maker attitudes toward consequences and risk only to a limited degree. The application of models reflecting these attitudes to decisions involving low-probability, high-consequence events that may impact civil infrastructure requires a fundamental understanding of risk acceptance attitudes and how they affect individual and group choices. In particular, the phenomenon of risk aversion may be a significant factor in decisions for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability events with severe consequences, such as earthquakes, hurricanes or floods. This paper utilizes cumulative prospect theory to investigate the role and characteristics of risk-aversion in assurance of structural safety.

Detection probability of Campylobacter

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Evers, E.G.; Post, J.; Putirulan, F.F.; Wal, van der F.J.

2010-01-01

A rapid presence/absence test for Campylobacter in chicken faeces is being evaluated to support the scheduling of highly contaminated broiler flocks as a measure to reduce public health risks [Nauta, M. J., & Havelaar, A. H. (2008). Risk-based standards for Campylobacter in the broiler meat

Theory of overdispersion in counting statistics caused by fluctuating probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Semkow, Thomas M.

1999-01-01

It is shown that the random Lexis fluctuations of probabilities such as probability of decay or detection cause the counting statistics to be overdispersed with respect to the classical binomial, Poisson, or Gaussian distributions. The generating and the distribution functions for the overdispersed counting statistics are derived. Applications to radioactive decay with detection and more complex experiments are given, as well as distinguishing between the source and background, in the presence of overdispersion. Monte-Carlo verifications are provided

High resolution surface scanning of Thick-GEM for single photo-electron detection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamar, G., E-mail: hamar.gergo@wigner.mta.hu [Wigner Research Centre for Physics, Budapest (Hungary); Varga, D., E-mail: vdezso@mail.cern.ch [Eoetvoes Lorand University, Budapest (Hungary)

2012-12-01

An optical system for high resolution scanning of TGEM UV photon detection systems is introduced. The structure exploits the combination of a single Au-coated TGEM under study, and an asymmetric MWPC (Close Cathode Chamber) as post-amplification stage. A pulsed UV LED source with emission down to 240 nm has been focused to a spot of 0.07 mm on the TGEM surface, and single photo-electron charge spectra has been recorded over selected two dimensional regions. This way, the TGEM gain (order of 10-100) and TGEM photo-electron detection efficiency is clearly separated, unlike in case of continuous illumination. The surface structure connected to the TGEM photon detection is well observable, including inefficiencies in the holes and at the symmetry points between holes. The detection efficiency as well as the gas gain are fluctuating from hole to hole. The gain is constant in the hexagon around any hole, pointing to the fact that the gain depends on hole geometry, and less on the position where the electron enters. The detection probability map strongly changes with the field strength above the TGEM surface, in relation to the change of the actual surface field configuration. The results can be confronted with position-dependent simulations of TGEM electron transfer and gas multiplication. -- Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer First demonstration of Thick GEM surface scanning with single photo-electrons. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Resolution of 0.1 mm is sufficient to identify structures connected to TGEM surface field structure. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Gain and detection efficiency and separately measurable. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Detection efficiency is high in a ring around the holes, and gain is constant in the hexagonal collection regions.

Sequential probability ratio controllers for safeguards radiation monitors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fehlau, P.E.; Coop, K.L.; Nixon, K.V.

1984-01-01

Sequential hypothesis tests applied to nuclear safeguards accounting methods make the methods more sensitive to detecting diversion. The sequential tests also improve transient signal detection in safeguards radiation monitors. This paper describes three microprocessor control units with sequential probability-ratio tests for detecting transient increases in radiation intensity. The control units are designed for three specific applications: low-intensity monitoring with Poisson probability ratios, higher intensity gamma-ray monitoring where fixed counting intervals are shortened by sequential testing, and monitoring moving traffic where the sequential technique responds to variable-duration signals. The fixed-interval controller shortens a customary 50-s monitoring time to an average of 18 s, making the monitoring delay less bothersome. The controller for monitoring moving vehicles benefits from the sequential technique by maintaining more than half its sensitivity when the normal passage speed doubles

Neutron detection in a high gamma-ray background with EJ-301 and EJ-309 liquid scintillators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stevanato, L.; Cester, D.; Nebbia, G.; Viesti, G.

2012-01-01

Using a fast digitizer, the neutron–gamma discrimination capability of the new liquid scintillator EJ-309 is compared with that obtained using standard EJ-301. Moreover the capability of both the scintillation detectors to identify a weak neutron source in a high gamma-ray background is demonstrated. The probability of neutron detection is PD=95% at 95% confidence level for a gamma-ray background corresponding to a dose rate of 100 μSv/h.

Operational NDT simulator, towards human factors integration in simulated probability of detection

Science.gov (United States)

Rodat, Damien; Guibert, Frank; Dominguez, Nicolas; Calmon, Pierre

2017-02-01

In the aeronautic industry, the performance demonstration of Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) procedures relies on Probability Of Detection (POD) analyses. This statistical approach measures the ability of the procedure to detect a flaw with regard to one of its characteristic dimensions. The inspection chain is evaluated as a whole, including equipment configuration, probe effciency but also operator manipulations. Traditionally, a POD study requires an expensive campaign during which several operators apply the procedure on a large set of representative samples. Recently, new perspectives for the POD estimation have been introduced using NDT simulation to generate data. However, these approaches do not offer straightforward solutions to take the operator into account. The simulation of human factors, including cognitive aspects, often raises questions. To address these diffculties, we propose a concept of operational NDT simulator [1]. This work presents the first steps in the implementation of such simulator for ultrasound phased array inspection of composite parts containing Flat Bottom Holes (FBHs). The final system will look like a classical ultrasound testing equipment with a single exception: the displayed signals will be synthesized. Our hardware (ultrasound acquisition card, 3D position tracker) and software (position analysis, inspection scenario, synchronization, simulations) environments are developed as a bench to test the meta-modeling techniques able to provide fast-simulated realistic ultra-sound signals. The results presented here are obtained by on-the-fly merging of real and simulated signals. They confirm the feasibility of our approach: the replacement of real signals by purely simulated ones has been unnoticed by operators. We believe this simulator is a great prospect for POD evaluation including human factors, and may also find applications for training or procedure set-up.

Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

2004-01-01

We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

2017-03-01

Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

OpenAIRE

Saad, Emad

2013-01-01

Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

Cueing spatial attention through timing and probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Girardi, Giovanna; Antonucci, Gabriella; Nico, Daniele

2013-01-01

Even when focused on an effortful task we retain the ability to detect salient environmental information, and even irrelevant visual stimuli can be automatically detected. However, to which extent unattended information affects attentional control is not fully understood. Here we provide evidences of how the brain spontaneously organizes its cognitive resources by shifting attention between a selective-attending and a stimulus-driven modality within a single task. Using a spatial cueing paradigm we investigated the effect of cue-target asynchronies as a function of their probabilities of occurrence (i.e., relative frequency). Results show that this accessory information modulates attentional shifts. A valid spatial cue improved participants' performance as compared to an invalid one only in trials in which target onset was highly predictable because of its more robust occurrence. Conversely, cuing proved ineffective when spatial cue and target were associated according to a less frequent asynchrony. These patterns of response depended on asynchronies' probability and not on their duration. Our findings clearly demonstrate that through a fine decision-making, performed trial-by-trial, the brain utilizes implicit information to decide whether or not voluntarily shifting spatial attention. As if according to a cost-planning strategy, the cognitive effort of shifting attention depending on the cue is performed only when the expected advantages are higher. In a trade-off competition for cognitive resources, voluntary/automatic attending may thus be a more complex process than expected. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probability of detection for bolt hole eddy current in extracted from service aircraft wing structures

Science.gov (United States)

Underhill, P. R.; Uemura, C.; Krause, T. W.

2018-04-01

Fatigue cracks are prone to develop around fasteners found in multi-layer aluminum structures on aging aircraft. Bolt hole eddy current (BHEC) is used for detection of cracks from within bolt holes after fastener removal. In support of qualification towards a target a90/95 (detect 90% of cracks of depth a, 95% of the time) of 0.76 mm (0.030"), a preliminary probability of detection (POD) study was performed to identify those parameters whose variation may keep a bolt hole inspection from attaining its goal. Parameters that were examined included variability in lift-off due to probe type, out-of-round holes, holes with diameters too large to permit surface-contact of the probe and mechanical damage to the holes, including burrs. The study examined the POD for BHEC of corner cracks in unfinished fastener holes extracted from service material. 68 EDM notches were introduced into two specimens of a horizontal stabilizer from a CC-130 Hercules aircraft. The fastener holes were inspected in the unfinished state, simulating potential inspection conditions, by 7 certified inspectors using a manual BHEC setup with an impedance plane display and also with one inspection conducted utilizing a BHEC automated C-Scan apparatus. While the standard detection limit of 1.27 mm (0.050") was achieved, given the a90/95 of 0.97 mm (0.039"), the target 0.76 mm (0.030") was not achieved. The work highlighted a number of areas where there was insufficient information to complete the qualification. Consequently, a number of recommendations were made. These included; development of a specification for minimum probe requirements; criteria for condition of the hole to be inspected, including out-of-roundness and presence of corrosion pits; statement of range of hole sizes; inspection frequency and data display for analysis.

Neutron emission probability at high excitation and isospin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aggarwal, Mamta

2005-01-01

One-neutron and two-neutron emission probability at different excitations and varying isospin have been studied. Several degrees of freedom like deformation, rotations, temperature, isospin fluctuations and shell structure are incorporated via statistical theory of hot rotating nuclei

High-resolution urban flood modelling - a joint probability approach

Science.gov (United States)

Hartnett, Michael; Olbert, Agnieszka; Nash, Stephen

2017-04-01

(Divoky et al., 2005). Nevertheless, such events occur and in Ireland alone there are several cases of serious damage due to flooding resulting from a combination of high sea water levels and river flows driven by the same meteorological conditions (e.g. Olbert et al. 2015). A November 2009 fluvial-coastal flooding of Cork City bringing €100m loss was one such incident. This event was used by Olbert et al. (2015) to determine processes controlling urban flooding and is further explored in this study to elaborate on coastal and fluvial flood mechanisms and their roles in controlling water levels. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology to assess combined effect of multiple source flooding on flood probability and severity in urban areas and to establish a set of conditions that dictate urban flooding due to extreme climatic events. These conditions broadly combine physical flood drivers (such as coastal and fluvial processes), their mechanisms and thresholds defining flood severity. The two main physical processes controlling urban flooding: high sea water levels (coastal flooding) and high river flows (fluvial flooding), and their threshold values for which flood is likely to occur, are considered in this study. Contribution of coastal and fluvial drivers to flooding and their impacts are assessed in a two-step process. The first step involves frequency analysis and extreme value statistical modelling of storm surges, tides and river flows and ultimately the application of joint probability method to estimate joint exceedence return periods for combination of surges, tide and river flows. In the second step, a numerical model of Cork Harbour MSN_Flood comprising a cascade of four nested high-resolution models is used to perform simulation of flood inundation under numerous hypothetical coastal and fluvial flood scenarios. The risk of flooding is quantified based on a range of physical aspects such as the extent and depth of inundation (Apel et al

Detecting and locating light atoms from high-resolution STEM images: The quest for a single optimal design.

Science.gov (United States)

Gonnissen, J; De Backer, A; den Dekker, A J; Sijbers, J; Van Aert, S

2016-11-01

In the present paper, the optimal detector design is investigated for both detecting and locating light atoms from high resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy (HR STEM) images. The principles of detection theory are used to quantify the probability of error for the detection of light atoms from HR STEM images. To determine the optimal experiment design for locating light atoms, use is made of the so-called Cramér-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB). It is investigated if a single optimal design can be found for both the detection and location problem of light atoms. Furthermore, the incoming electron dose is optimised for both research goals and it is shown that picometre range precision is feasible for the estimation of the atom positions when using an appropriate incoming electron dose under the optimal detector settings to detect light atoms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CEST ANALYSIS: AUTOMATED CHANGE DETECTION FROM VERY-HIGH-RESOLUTION REMOTE SENSING IMAGES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Ehlers

2012-08-01

Full Text Available A fast detection, visualization and assessment of change in areas of crisis or catastrophes are important requirements for coordination and planning of help. Through the availability of new satellites and/or airborne sensors with very high spatial resolutions (e.g., WorldView, GeoEye new remote sensing data are available for a better detection, delineation and visualization of change. For automated change detection, a large number of algorithms has been proposed and developed. From previous studies, however, it is evident that to-date no single algorithm has the potential for being a reliable change detector for all possible scenarios. This paper introduces the Combined Edge Segment Texture (CEST analysis, a decision-tree based cooperative suite of algorithms for automated change detection that is especially designed for the generation of new satellites with very high spatial resolution. The method incorporates frequency based filtering, texture analysis, and image segmentation techniques. For the frequency analysis, different band pass filters can be applied to identify the relevant frequency information for change detection. After transforming the multitemporal images via a fast Fourier transform (FFT and applying the most suitable band pass filter, different methods are available to extract changed structures: differencing and correlation in the frequency domain and correlation and edge detection in the spatial domain. Best results are obtained using edge extraction. For the texture analysis, different 'Haralick' parameters can be calculated (e.g., energy, correlation, contrast, inverse distance moment with 'energy' so far providing the most accurate results. These algorithms are combined with a prior segmentation of the image data as well as with morphological operations for a final binary change result. A rule-based combination (CEST of the change algorithms is applied to calculate the probability of change for a particular location. CEST

What probabilities tell about quantum systems, with application to entropy and entanglement

CERN Document Server

Myers, John M

2010-01-01

The use of parameters to describe an experimenter's control over the devices used in an experiment is familiar in quantum physics, for example in connection with Bell inequalities. Parameters are also interesting in a different but related context, as we noticed when we proved a formal separation in quantum mechanics between linear operators and the probabilities that these operators generate. In comparing an experiment against its description by a density operator and detection operators, one compares tallies of experimental outcomes against the probabilities generated by the operators but not directly against the operators. Recognizing that the accessibility of operators to experimental tests is only indirect, via probabilities, motivates us to ask what probabilities tell us about operators, or, put more precisely, “what combinations of a parameterized density operator and parameterized detection operators generate any given set of parametrized probabilities?”

Proposal to detect an emission of unusual super-high energy electrons in electron storage rings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Da-peng Qian

2014-01-01

Full Text Available According to an extended Lorentz–Einstein mass formula taken into the uncertainty principle, it is predicted that the electron beams passing accelerating electric field should with a small probability generate abnormal super-high energy electrons which are much higher than the beam energy. Author’s preliminary experiment result at electron storage ring has hinted these signs, so suggests to more strictly detect this unusual phenomenon, and thus to test the extended mass formula as well as a more perfect special relativity.

Effects of concurrent caffeine and mobile phone exposure on local target probability processing in the human brain.

Science.gov (United States)

Trunk, Attila; Stefanics, Gábor; Zentai, Norbert; Bacskay, Ivett; Felinger, Attila; Thuróczy, György; Hernádi, István

2015-09-23

Millions of people use mobile phones (MP) while drinking coffee or other caffeine containing beverages. Little is known about the potential combined effects of MP irradiation and caffeine on cognitive functions. Here we investigated whether caffeine intake and concurrent exposure to Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) MP-like irradiation may interactively influence neuro-cognitive function in an active visual oddball paradigm. In a full factorial experimental design, 25 participants performed a simple visual target detection task while reaction time (RT) and electroencephalogram (EEG) was recorded. Target trials were divided into Low and High probability sets based on target-to-target distance. We analyzed single trial RT and alpha-band power (amplitude) in the pre-target interval. We found that RT was shorter in High vs. Low local probability trials, and caffeine further shortened RT in High probability trials relative to the baseline condition suggesting that caffeine improves the efficiency of implicit short-term memory. Caffeine also decreased pre-target alpha amplitude resulting in higher arousal level. Furthermore, pre-target gamma power positively correlated with RT, which may have facilitated target detection. However, in the present pharmacologically validated study UMTS exposure either alone or in combination with caffeine did not alter RT or pre-stimulus oscillatory brain activity.

A high-throughput qPCR system for simultaneous quantitative detection of dairy Lactococcus lactis and Leuconostoc bacteriophages

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Muhammed, Musemma Kedir; Krych, Lukasz; Nielsen, Dennis Sandris

2017-01-01

simultaneous quantitative detection of Lc. lactis 936 (now SK1virus), P335, c2 (now C2virus) and Leuconostoc phage groups. Component assays are designed to have high efficiencies and nearly the same dynamic detection ranges, i.e., from 1.1 x 105 to 1.1 x 101 phage genomes per reaction, which corresponds to 9 x......Simultaneous quantitative detection of Lactococcus (Lc.) lactis and Leuconostoc species bacteriophages (phages) has not been reported in dairies using undefined mixed-strain DL-starters, probably due to the lack of applicable methods. We optimized a high-throughput qPCR system that allows...... 107 to 9 x 103 phage particles mL-1 without any additional up-concentrating steps. The amplification efficiencies of the corresponding assays were 100.1±2.6, 98.7±2.3, 101.0±2.3 and 96.2±6.2. The qPCR system was tested on samples obtained from a dairy plant that employed traditional mother...

Prognostic value of stress echocardiography in women with high (⩾80%) probability of coronary artery disease

OpenAIRE

Davar, J; Roberts, E; Coghlan, J; Evans, T; Lipkin, D

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE—To assess the prognostic significance of stress echocardiography in women with a high probability of coronary artery disease (CAD).
SETTING—Secondary and tertiary cardiology unit at a university teaching hospital.
PARTICIPANTS—A total of 135 women (mean (SD) age 63 (9) years) with pre-test probability of CAD ⩾80% were selected from a database of patients investigated by treadmill or dobutamine stress echocardiography between 1995 and 1998.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Patients were followe...

Applied probability and stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Sumita, Ushio

1999-01-01

Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Spacecraft Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Carpenter, J. Russell; Markley, F. Landis

2013-01-01

A document discusses sequential probability ratio tests that explicitly allow decision-makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models the null hypotheses that the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming, highly elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

OpenAIRE

Burgin, Mark

2013-01-01

Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

Uncertainty relation and probability. Numerical illustration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujikawa, Kazuo; Umetsu, Koichiro

2011-01-01

The uncertainty relation and the probability interpretation of quantum mechanics are intrinsically connected, as is evidenced by the evaluation of standard deviations. It is thus natural to ask if one can associate a very small uncertainty product of suitably sampled events with a very small probability. We have shown elsewhere that some examples of the evasion of the uncertainty relation noted in the past are in fact understood in this way. We here numerically illustrate that a very small uncertainty product is realized if one performs a suitable sampling of measured data that occur with a very small probability. We introduce a notion of cyclic measurements. It is also shown that our analysis is consistent with the Landau-Pollak-type uncertainty relation. It is suggested that the present analysis may help reconcile the contradicting views about the 'standard quantum limit' in the detection of gravitational waves. (author)

Early results utilizing high-energy fission product gamma rays to detect fissionable material in cargo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slaughter, D.R.; Accatino, M.R.; Alford, O.J.; Bernstein, A.; Descalle, M.; Gosnell, T.B.; Hall, J.M.; Loshak, A.; Manatt, D.R.; McDowell, M.R.; Moore, T.L.; Petersen, D.C.; Pohl, B.A.; Pruet, J.A.; Prussin, S.G.

2004-01-01

Full text: A concept for detecting the presence of special nuclear material ( 235 U or 239 Pu) concealed in inter modal cargo containers is described. It is based on interrogation with a pulsed beam of 6-8 MeV neutrons and fission events are identified between beam pulses by their β-delayed neutron emission or β -delayed high-energy γ-radiation. The high-energy γ-ray signature is being employed for the first time. Fission product γ-rays above 3 MeV are distinct from natural radioactivity and from nearly all of the induced activity in a normal cargo. High-energy γ-radiation is nearly 10X more abundant than the delayed neutrons and penetrates even thick cargo's readily. The concept employs two large (8x20 ft) arrays of liquid scintillation detectors that have high efficiency for the detection of both delayed neutrons and delayed γ-radiation. Detector backgrounds and potential interferences with the fission signature radiation have been identified and quantified. This information, together with predicted signature strength, has been applied to the estimation of detection probability for the nuclear material and estimation of false alarm rates. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. W-7405-Eng-48

Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications

CERN Document Server

Helms, Lester L

2010-01-01

This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process

Assessing environmental DNA detection in controlled lentic systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Moyer, Gregory R; Díaz-Ferguson, Edgardo; Hill, Jeffrey E; Shea, Colin

2014-01-01

Little consideration has been given to environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling strategies for rare species. The certainty of species detection relies on understanding false positive and false negative error rates. We used artificial ponds together with logistic regression models to assess the detection of African jewelfish eDNA at varying fish densities (0, 0.32, 1.75, and 5.25 fish/m3). Our objectives were to determine the most effective water stratum for eDNA detection, estimate true and false positive eDNA detection rates, and assess the number of water samples necessary to minimize the risk of false negatives. There were 28 eDNA detections in 324, 1-L, water samples collected from four experimental ponds. The best-approximating model indicated that the per-L-sample probability of eDNA detection was 4.86 times more likely for every 2.53 fish/m3 (1 SD) increase in fish density and 1.67 times less likely for every 1.02 C (1 SD) increase in water temperature. The best section of the water column to detect eDNA was the surface and to a lesser extent the bottom. Although no false positives were detected, the estimated likely number of false positives in samples from ponds that contained fish averaged 3.62. At high densities of African jewelfish, 3-5 L of water provided a >95% probability for the presence/absence of its eDNA. Conversely, at moderate and low densities, the number of water samples necessary to achieve a >95% probability of eDNA detection approximated 42-73 and >100 L, respectively. Potential biases associated with incomplete detection of eDNA could be alleviated via formal estimation of eDNA detection probabilities under an occupancy modeling framework; alternatively, the filtration of hundreds of liters of water may be required to achieve a high (e.g., 95%) level of certainty that African jewelfish eDNA will be detected at low densities (i.e., <0.32 fish/m3 or 1.75 g/m3).

Learning difficulties of senior high school students based on probability understanding levels

Science.gov (United States)

Anggara, B.; Priatna, N.; Juandi, D.

2018-05-01

Identifying students' difficulties in learning concept of probability is important for teachers to prepare the appropriate learning processes and can overcome obstacles that may arise in the next learning processes. This study revealed the level of students' understanding of the concept of probability and identified their difficulties as a part of the epistemological obstacles identification of the concept of probability. This study employed a qualitative approach that tends to be the character of descriptive research involving 55 students of class XII. In this case, the writer used the diagnostic test of probability concept learning difficulty, observation, and interview as the techniques to collect the data needed. The data was used to determine levels of understanding and the learning difficulties experienced by the students. From the result of students' test result and learning observation, it was found that the mean cognitive level was at level 2. The findings indicated that students had appropriate quantitative information of probability concept but it might be incomplete or incorrectly used. The difficulties found are the ones in arranging sample space, events, and mathematical models related to probability problems. Besides, students had difficulties in understanding the principles of events and prerequisite concept.

Assessing the clinical probability of pulmonary embolism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miniati, M.; Pistolesi, M.

2001-01-01

Clinical assessment is a cornerstone of the recently validated diagnostic strategies for pulmonary embolism (PE). Although the diagnostic yield of individual symptoms, signs, and common laboratory tests is limited, the combination of these variables, either by empirical assessment or by a prediction rule, can be used to express a clinical probability of PE. The latter may serve as pretest probability to predict the probability of PE after further objective testing (posterior or post-test probability). Over the last few years, attempts have been made to develop structured prediction models for PE. In a Canadian multicenter prospective study, the clinical probability of PE was rated as low, intermediate, or high according to a model which included assessment of presenting symptoms and signs, risk factors, and presence or absence of an alternative diagnosis at least as likely as PE. Recently, a simple clinical score was developed to stratify outpatients with suspected PE into groups with low, intermediate, or high clinical probability. Logistic regression was used to predict parameters associated with PE. A score ≤ 4 identified patients with low probability of whom 10% had PE. The prevalence of PE in patients with intermediate (score 5-8) and high probability (score ≥ 9) was 38 and 81%, respectively. As opposed to the Canadian model, this clinical score is standardized. The predictor variables identified in the model, however, were derived from a database of emergency ward patients. This model may, therefore, not be valid in assessing the clinical probability of PE in inpatients. In the PISA-PED study, a clinical diagnostic algorithm was developed which rests on the identification of three relevant clinical symptoms and on their association with electrocardiographic and/or radiographic abnormalities specific for PE. Among patients who, according to the model, had been rated as having a high clinical probability, the prevalence of proven PE was 97%, while it was 3

Probability with applications and R

CERN Document Server

Dobrow, Robert P

2013-01-01

An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c

Economic choices reveal probability distortion in macaque monkeys.

Science.gov (United States)

Stauffer, William R; Lak, Armin; Bossaerts, Peter; Schultz, Wolfram

2015-02-18

Economic choices are largely determined by two principal elements, reward value (utility) and probability. Although nonlinear utility functions have been acknowledged for centuries, nonlinear probability weighting (probability distortion) was only recently recognized as a ubiquitous aspect of real-world choice behavior. Even when outcome probabilities are known and acknowledged, human decision makers often overweight low probability outcomes and underweight high probability outcomes. Whereas recent studies measured utility functions and their corresponding neural correlates in monkeys, it is not known whether monkeys distort probability in a manner similar to humans. Therefore, we investigated economic choices in macaque monkeys for evidence of probability distortion. We trained two monkeys to predict reward from probabilistic gambles with constant outcome values (0.5 ml or nothing). The probability of winning was conveyed using explicit visual cues (sector stimuli). Choices between the gambles revealed that the monkeys used the explicit probability information to make meaningful decisions. Using these cues, we measured probability distortion from choices between the gambles and safe rewards. Parametric modeling of the choices revealed classic probability weighting functions with inverted-S shape. Therefore, the animals overweighted low probability rewards and underweighted high probability rewards. Empirical investigation of the behavior verified that the choices were best explained by a combination of nonlinear value and nonlinear probability distortion. Together, these results suggest that probability distortion may reflect evolutionarily preserved neuronal processing. Copyright © 2015 Stauffer et al.

Evaluation of nuclear power plant component failure probability and core damage probability using simplified PSA model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimada, Yoshio

2000-01-01

It is anticipated that the change of frequency of surveillance tests, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of safety related components may cause the change of component failure probability and result in the change of core damage probability. It is also anticipated that the change is different depending on the initiating event frequency or the component types. This study assessed the change of core damage probability using simplified PSA model capable of calculating core damage probability in a short time period, which is developed by the US NRC to process accident sequence precursors, when various component's failure probability is changed between 0 and 1, or Japanese or American initiating event frequency data are used. As a result of the analysis, (1) It was clarified that frequency of surveillance test, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of motor driven pumps (high pressure injection pumps, residual heat removal pumps, auxiliary feedwater pumps) should be carefully changed, since the core damage probability's change is large, when the base failure probability changes toward increasing direction. (2) Core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance test frequency change, since the core damage probability change is small, when motor operated valves and turbine driven auxiliary feed water pump failure probability changes around one figure. (3) Core damage probability change is small, when Japanese failure probability data are applied to emergency diesel generator, even if failure probability changes one figure from the base value. On the other hand, when American failure probability data is applied, core damage probability increase is large, even if failure probability changes toward increasing direction. Therefore, when Japanese failure probability data is applied, core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance tests frequency change etc. (author)

High-sensitivity high-selectivity detection of CWAs and TICs using tunable laser photoacoustic spectroscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Pushkarsky, Michael; Webber, Michael; Patel, C. Kumar N.

2005-03-01

We provide a general technique for evaluating the performance of an optical sensor for the detection of chemical warfare agents (CWAs) in realistic environments and present data from a simulation model based on a field deployed discretely tunable 13CO2 laser photoacoustic spectrometer (L-PAS). Results of our calculations show the sensor performance in terms of usable sensor sensitivity as a function of probability of false positives (PFP). The false positives arise from the presence of many other gases in the ambient air that could be interferents. Using the L-PAS as it exists today, we can achieve a detection threshold of about 4 ppb for the CWAs while maintaining a PFP of less than 1:106. Our simulation permits us to vary a number of parameters in the model to provide guidance for performance improvement. We find that by using a larger density of laser lines (such as those obtained through the use of tunable semiconductor lasers), improving the detector noise and maintaining the accuracy of laser frequency determination, optical detection schemes can make possible CWA sensors having sub-ppb detection capability with TIC detection.

Influence of porcine circovirus type 2 vaccination on the probability and severity of pneumonia detected postmortem.

Science.gov (United States)

Raith, J; Kuchling, S; Schleicher, C; Schobesberger, H; Köfer, J

2015-01-31

To evaluate the influence of porcine circovirus type 2 vaccination (PCV-2) on the probability and severity of pneumonia, postmortem findings of 247,505 pigs slaughtered between 2008 and 2011 were analysed by applying a cumulative link mixed model. Three major effects could be observed: (1) PCV-2 vaccination significantly (P<0.01) reduced the odds (coefficient: -0.05) of postmortem findings of mild, moderate and severe pneumonia for vaccinated pigs. (2) Pigs from fattening farms were less likely (coefficient: -0.44; P<0.05) to exhibit signs of pneumonia at slaughter than pigs from farrow-to-finish farms. (3) When vaccinated, the odds of detecting postmortem signs showed an even more pronounced reduction (coefficient: -0.19; P<0.001) for pigs from fattening farms. Combining PCV-2 vaccination, farm type and interaction effects between these two factors, a pig vaccinated against PCV-2 from a fattening farm had only half the chance (OR 0.51) of pneumonia being detected at postmortem than a non-vaccinated pig from a farrow-to-finish farm. The study demonstrates the benefit of a vaccination programme against PCV-2 as an important tool to reduce the risk of postmortem pneumonia findings and the severity of pneumonia in pigs at slaughter. British Veterinary Association.

Possible standoff detection of ionizing radiation using high-power THz electromagnetic waves

Science.gov (United States)

Nusinovich, Gregory S.; Sprangle, Phillip; Romero-Talamas, Carlos A.; Rodgers, John; Pu, Ruifeng; Kashyn, Dmytro G.; Antonsen, Thomas M., Jr.; Granatstein, Victor L.

2012-06-01

Recently, a new method of remote detection of concealed radioactive materials was proposed. This method is based on focusing high-power short wavelength electromagnetic radiation in a small volume where the wave electric field exceeds the breakdown threshold. In the presence of free electrons caused by ionizing radiation, in this volume an avalanche discharge can then be initiated. When the wavelength is short enough, the probability of having even one free electron in this small volume in the absence of additional sources of ionization is low. Hence, a high breakdown rate will indicate that in the vicinity of this volume there are some materials causing ionization of air. To prove this concept a 0.67 THz gyrotron delivering 200-300 kW power in 10 microsecond pulses is under development. This method of standoff detection of concealed sources of ionizing radiation requires a wide range of studies, viz., evaluation of possible range, THz power and pulse duration, production of free electrons in air by gamma rays penetrating through container walls, statistical delay time in initiation of the breakdown in the case of low electron density, temporal evolution of plasma structure in the breakdown and scattering of THz radiation from small plasma objects. Most of these issues are discussed in the paper.

Probability mapping of scarred myocardium using texture and intensity features in CMR images

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background The myocardium exhibits heterogeneous nature due to scarring after Myocardial Infarction (MI). In Cardiac Magnetic Resonance (CMR) imaging, Late Gadolinium (LG) contrast agent enhances the intensity of scarred area in the myocardium. Methods In this paper, we propose a probability mapping technique using Texture and Intensity features to describe heterogeneous nature of the scarred myocardium in Cardiac Magnetic Resonance (CMR) images after Myocardial Infarction (MI). Scarred tissue and non-scarred tissue are represented with high and low probabilities, respectively. Intermediate values possibly indicate areas where the scarred and healthy tissues are interwoven. The probability map of scarred myocardium is calculated by using a probability function based on Bayes rule. Any set of features can be used in the probability function. Results In the present study, we demonstrate the use of two different types of features. One is based on the mean intensity of pixel and the other on underlying texture information of the scarred and non-scarred myocardium. Examples of probability maps computed using the mean intensity of pixel and the underlying texture information are presented. We hypothesize that the probability mapping of myocardium offers alternate visualization, possibly showing the details with physiological significance difficult to detect visually in the original CMR image. Conclusion The probability mapping obtained from the two features provides a way to define different cardiac segments which offer a way to identify areas in the myocardium of diagnostic importance (like core and border areas in scarred myocardium). PMID:24053280

Probability

CERN Document Server

Shiryaev, A N

1996-01-01

This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables

Probability of Detection (POD) Analysis for the Advanced Retirement for Cause (RFC)/Engine Structural Integrity Program (ENSIP) Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) System-Volume 3: Material Correlation Study

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Berens, Alan

2000-01-01

.... Volume 1 presents a description of changes made to the probability of detection (POD) analysis program of Mil-STD-1823 and the statistical evaluation of modifications that were made to version 3 of the Eddy Current Inspection System (ECIS v3...

Recent trends in the probability of high out-of-pocket medical expenses in the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katherine E Baird

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Objective: This article measures the probability that out-of-pocket expenses in the United States exceed a threshold share of income. It calculates this probability separately by individuals’ health condition, income, and elderly status and estimates changes occurring in these probabilities between 2010 and 2013. Data and Method: This article uses nationally representative household survey data on 344,000 individuals. Logistic regressions estimate the probabilities that out-of-pocket expenses exceed 5% and alternatively 10% of income in the two study years. These probabilities are calculated for individuals based on their income, health status, and elderly status. Results: Despite favorable changes in both health policy and the economy, large numbers of Americans continue to be exposed to high out-of-pocket expenditures. For instance, the results indicate that in 2013 over a quarter of nonelderly low-income citizens in poor health spent 10% or more of their income on out-of-pocket expenses, and over 40% of this group spent more than 5%. Moreover, for Americans as a whole, the probability of spending in excess of 5% of income on out-of-pocket costs increased by 1.4 percentage points between 2010 and 2013, with the largest increases occurring among low-income Americans; the probability of Americans spending more than 10% of income grew from 9.3% to 9.6%, with the largest increases also occurring among the poor. Conclusion: The magnitude of out-of-pocket’s financial burden and the most recent upward trends in it underscore a need to develop good measures of the degree to which health care policy exposes individuals to financial risk, and to closely monitor the Affordable Care Act’s success in reducing Americans’ exposure to large medical bills.

Probability cueing of distractor locations: both intertrial facilitation and statistical learning mediate interference reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Goschy, Harriet; Bakos, Sarolta; Müller, Hermann J; Zehetleitner, Michael

2014-01-01

Targets in a visual search task are detected faster if they appear in a probable target region as compared to a less probable target region, an effect which has been termed "probability cueing." The present study investigated whether probability cueing cannot only speed up target detection, but also minimize distraction by distractors in probable distractor regions as compared to distractors in less probable distractor regions. To this end, three visual search experiments with a salient, but task-irrelevant, distractor ("additional singleton") were conducted. Experiment 1 demonstrated that observers can utilize uneven spatial distractor distributions to selectively reduce interference by distractors in frequent distractor regions as compared to distractors in rare distractor regions. Experiments 2 and 3 showed that intertrial facilitation, i.e., distractor position repetitions, and statistical learning (independent of distractor position repetitions) both contribute to the probability cueing effect for distractor locations. Taken together, the present results demonstrate that probability cueing of distractor locations has the potential to serve as a strong attentional cue for the shielding of likely distractor locations.

An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals)

CERN Document Server

Gillies, Donald

2012-01-01

This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axioma

RDX Detection with THz Spectroscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Michalopoulou, Zoi-Heleni; Mukherjee, Suman; Hor, Yew Li; Su, Ke; Liu, Zhiwei; Barat, Robert B.; Gary, Dale E.; Federici, John F.

2010-10-01

Spectroscopic analysis in the Terahertz frequency range, providing characteristic “signatures” for explosive and non-explosive materials, is proposed as an efficient and powerful tool for explosive identification. It is demonstrated that spectral responses of materials can be used as fingerprints that distinguish cyclotrimethylenetrinitramine (RDX) from other materials even with simple detectors and a limited number of available frequencies. Detection is performed using a modified least squares approach and multilayer perceptrons that operate on smoothed reflectance spectra. The performance of the detectors is evaluated through application to spectra of RDX and several common materials. A Receiver Operating Characteristic curve analysis demonstrates that our detectors exhibit the desirable properties of high probability of detection and low probability of false alarm.

A comparison of Probability Of Detection (POD) data determined using different statistical methods

Science.gov (United States)

Fahr, A.; Forsyth, D.; Bullock, M.

1993-12-01

Different statistical methods have been suggested for determining probability of detection (POD) data for nondestructive inspection (NDI) techniques. A comparative assessment of various methods of determining POD was conducted using results of three NDI methods obtained by inspecting actual aircraft engine compressor disks which contained service induced cracks. The study found that the POD and 95 percent confidence curves as a function of crack size as well as the 90/95 percent crack length vary depending on the statistical method used and the type of data. The distribution function as well as the parameter estimation procedure used for determining POD and the confidence bound must be included when referencing information such as the 90/95 percent crack length. The POD curves and confidence bounds determined using the range interval method are very dependent on information that is not from the inspection data. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) method does not require such information and the POD results are more reasonable. The log-logistic function appears to model POD of hit/miss data relatively well and is easy to implement. The log-normal distribution using MLE provides more realistic POD results and is the preferred method. Although it is more complicated and slower to calculate, it can be implemented on a common spreadsheet program.

Analytic Neutrino Oscillation Probabilities in Matter: Revisited

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parke, Stephen J. [Fermilab; Denton, Peter B. [Copenhagen U.; Minakata, Hisakazu [Madrid, IFT

2018-01-02

We summarize our recent paper on neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter, explaining the importance, relevance and need for simple, highly accurate approximations to the neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter.

DHPLC technology for high-throughput detection of mutations in a durum wheat TILLING population.

Science.gov (United States)

Colasuonno, Pasqualina; Incerti, Ornella; Lozito, Maria Luisa; Simeone, Rosanna; Gadaleta, Agata; Blanco, Antonio

2016-02-17

Durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L.) is a cereal crop widely grown in the Mediterranean regions; the amber grain is mainly used for the production of pasta, couscous and typical breads. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) detection technologies and high-throughput mutation induction represent a new challenge in wheat breeding to identify allelic variation in large populations. The TILLING strategy makes use of traditional chemical mutagenesis followed by screening for single base mismatches to identify novel mutant loci. Although TILLING has been combined to several sensitive pre-screening methods for SNP analysis, most rely on expensive equipment. Recently, a new low cost and time saving DHPLC protocol has been used in molecular human diagnostic to detect unknown mutations. In this work, we developed a new durum wheat TILLING population (cv. Marco Aurelio) using 0.70-0.85% ethyl methane sulfonate (EMS). To investigate the efficiency of the mutagenic treatments, a pilot screening was carried out on 1,140 mutant lines focusing on two target genes (Lycopene epsilon-cyclase, ε-LCY, and Lycopene beta-cyclase, β-LCY) involved in carotenoid metabolism in wheat grains. We simplify the heteroduplex detection by two low cost methods: the enzymatic cleavage (CelI)/agarose gel technique and the denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC). The CelI/agarose gel approach allowed us to identify 31 mutations, whereas the DHPLC procedure detected a total of 46 mutations for both genes. All detected mutations were confirmed by direct sequencing. The estimated overall mutation frequency for the pilot assay by the DHPLC methodology resulted to be of 1/77 kb, representing a high probability to detect interesting mutations in the target genes. We demonstrated the applicability and efficiency of a new strategy for the detection of induced variability. We produced and characterized a new durum wheat TILLING population useful for a better understanding of key gene functions

Monte Carlo simulation of the sequential probability ratio test for radiation monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coop, K.L.

1984-01-01

A computer program simulates the Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) using Monte Carlo techniques. The program, SEQTEST, performs random-number sampling of either a Poisson or normal distribution to simulate radiation monitoring data. The results are in terms of the detection probabilities and the average time required for a trial. The computed SPRT results can be compared with tabulated single interval test (SIT) values to determine the better statistical test for particular monitoring applications. Use of the SPRT in a hand-and-foot alpha monitor shows that the SPRT provides better detection probabilities while generally requiring less counting time. Calculations are also performed for a monitor where the SPRT is not permitted to the take longer than the single interval test. Although the performance of the SPRT is degraded by this restriction, the detection probabilities are still similar to the SIT values, and average counting times are always less than 75% of the SIT time. Some optimal conditions for use of the SPRT are described. The SPRT should be the test of choice in many radiation monitoring situations. 6 references, 8 figures, 1 table

Review of Literature on Probability of Detection for Magnetic Particle Nondestructive Testing

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

a precipitation hardened martensitic stainless steel . The inspections were based on MIL-STD-1949A [51], now superseded but current at the time...inspector population involved in the tests, it is not possible to draw any further conclusions.  MPT of flat 17-4PH stainless steel plates. A brief...inspection method used to detect surface-breaking cracks in high-strength steel components. A survey of the available literature on the reliability

What is the probability of the Higgs boson discovery?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Unzicker, Alexander [Pestalozzi-Gymnasium Muenchen (Germany)

2010-07-01

The standard model of particle physics requires the existence of the Higgs boson which provides a mechanism for the appearance of masses. Its detection is one of the most important goals of high energy physics, and enormous efforts have been undertaken at Tevatron and specially at the Large Hadron Collider. But how sure can we be that the Higgs exits at all? At such controversial questions, the German philosopher Immanuel Kant recommended a bet, and nowadays this can be realized using online prediction markets like Intrade.com. Such platforms have been proven useful for giving estimates of unknown probabilities, and the application for evaluating scientific research is discussed in general.

Computer-aided mathematical analysis of probability of intercept for ground-based communication intercept system

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Sang Chul

1989-09-01

We develop a mathematical analysis model to calculate the probability of intercept (POI) for the ground-based communication intercept (COMINT) system. The POI is a measure of the effectiveness of the intercept system. We define the POI as the product of the probability of detection and the probability of coincidence. The probability of detection is a measure of the receiver's capability to detect a signal in the presence of noise. The probability of coincidence is the probability that an intercept system is available, actively listening in the proper frequency band, in the right direction and at the same time that the signal is received. We investigate the behavior of the POI with respect to the observation time, the separation distance, antenna elevations, the frequency of the signal, and the receiver bandwidths. We observe that the coincidence characteristic between the receiver scanning parameters and the signal parameters is the key factor to determine the time to obtain a given POI. This model can be used to find the optimal parameter combination to maximize the POI in a given scenario. We expand this model to a multiple system. This analysis is conducted on a personal computer to provide the portability. The model is also flexible and can be easily implemented under different situations.

Knowing where is different from knowing what: Distinct response time profiles and accuracy effects for target location, orientation, and color probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Jabar, Syaheed B; Filipowicz, Alex; Anderson, Britt

2017-11-01

When a location is cued, targets appearing at that location are detected more quickly. When a target feature is cued, targets bearing that feature are detected more quickly. These attentional cueing effects are only superficially similar. More detailed analyses find distinct temporal and accuracy profiles for the two different types of cues. This pattern parallels work with probability manipulations, where both feature and spatial probability are known to affect detection accuracy and reaction times. However, little has been done by way of comparing these effects. Are probability manipulations on space and features distinct? In a series of five experiments, we systematically varied spatial probability and feature probability along two dimensions (orientation or color). In addition, we decomposed response times into initiation and movement components. Targets appearing at the probable location were reported more quickly and more accurately regardless of whether the report was based on orientation or color. On the other hand, when either color probability or orientation probability was manipulated, response time and accuracy improvements were specific for that probable feature dimension. Decomposition of the response time benefits demonstrated that spatial probability only affected initiation times, whereas manipulations of feature probability affected both initiation and movement times. As detection was made more difficult, the two effects further diverged, with spatial probability disproportionally affecting initiation times and feature probability disproportionately affecting accuracy. In conclusion, all manipulations of probability, whether spatial or featural, affect detection. However, only feature probability affects perceptual precision, and precision effects are specific to the probable attribute.

Winter School on Operator Spaces, Noncommutative Probability and Quantum Groups

CERN Document Server

2017-01-01

Providing an introduction to current research topics in functional analysis and its applications to quantum physics, this book presents three lectures surveying recent progress and open problems.  A special focus is given to the role of symmetry in non-commutative probability, in the theory of quantum groups, and in quantum physics. The first lecture presents the close connection between distributional symmetries and independence properties. The second introduces many structures (graphs, C*-algebras, discrete groups) whose quantum symmetries are much richer than their classical symmetry groups, and describes the associated quantum symmetry groups. The last lecture shows how functional analytic and geometric ideas can be used to detect and to quantify entanglement in high dimensions.  The book will allow graduate students and young researchers to gain a better understanding of free probability, the theory of compact quantum groups, and applications of the theory of Banach spaces to quantum information. The l...

High Detectivity Graphene-Silicon Heterojunction Photodetector.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xinming; Zhu, Miao; Du, Mingde; Lv, Zheng; Zhang, Li; Li, Yuanchang; Yang, Yao; Yang, Tingting; Li, Xiao; Wang, Kunlin; Zhu, Hongwei; Fang, Ying

2016-02-03

A graphene/n-type silicon (n-Si) heterojunction has been demonstrated to exhibit strong rectifying behavior and high photoresponsivity, which can be utilized for the development of high-performance photodetectors. However, graphene/n-Si heterojunction photodetectors reported previously suffer from relatively low specific detectivity due to large dark current. Here, by introducing a thin interfacial oxide layer, the dark current of graphene/n-Si heterojunction has been reduced by two orders of magnitude at zero bias. At room temperature, the graphene/n-Si photodetector with interfacial oxide exhibits a specific detectivity up to 5.77 × 10(13) cm Hz(1/2) W(-1) at the peak wavelength of 890 nm in vacuum, which is highest reported detectivity at room temperature for planar graphene/Si heterojunction photodetectors. In addition, the improved graphene/n-Si heterojunction photodetectors possess high responsivity of 0.73 A W(-1) and high photo-to-dark current ratio of ≈10(7) . The current noise spectral density of the graphene/n-Si photodetector has been characterized under ambient and vacuum conditions, which shows that the dark current can be further suppressed in vacuum. These results demonstrate that graphene/Si heterojunction with interfacial oxide is promising for the development of high detectivity photodetectors. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Study of detection probability from lesion by scintiscanning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, D.C. da; Dias-Neto, A.L.

1992-01-01

The importance of work with the information density parameter in scintiscanning is described, fixing the minimum values of information density, above of which the existent injuries are not detected, allowing also the reproducibility of the examination. (C.G.C.)

Striatal activity is modulated by target probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Hon, Nicholas

2017-06-14

Target probability has well-known neural effects. In the brain, target probability is known to affect frontal activity, with lower probability targets producing more prefrontal activation than those that occur with higher probability. Although the effect of target probability on cortical activity is well specified, its effect on subcortical structures such as the striatum is less well understood. Here, I examined this issue and found that the striatum was highly responsive to target probability. This is consistent with its hypothesized role in the gating of salient information into higher-order task representations. The current data are interpreted in light of that fact that different components of the striatum are sensitive to different types of task-relevant information.

Introduction to imprecise probabilities

CERN Document Server

Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M

2014-01-01

In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin

Scaling Qualitative Probability

OpenAIRE

Burgin, Mark

2017-01-01

There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

Probability an introduction with statistical applications

CERN Document Server

Kinney, John J

2014-01-01

Praise for the First Edition""This is a well-written and impressively presented introduction to probability and statistics. The text throughout is highly readable, and the author makes liberal use of graphs and diagrams to clarify the theory.""  - The StatisticianThoroughly updated, Probability: An Introduction with Statistical Applications, Second Edition features a comprehensive exploration of statistical data analysis as an application of probability. The new edition provides an introduction to statistics with accessible coverage of reliability, acceptance sampling, confidence intervals, h

A Semi-Continuous State-Transition Probability HMM-Based Voice Activity Detector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Othman

2007-02-01

Full Text Available We introduce an efficient hidden Markov model-based voice activity detection (VAD algorithm with time-variant state-transition probabilities in the underlying Markov chain. The transition probabilities vary in an exponential charge/discharge scheme and are softly merged with state conditional likelihood into a final VAD decision. Working in the domain of ITU-T G.729 parameters, with no additional cost for feature extraction, the proposed algorithm significantly outperforms G.729 Annex B VAD while providing a balanced tradeoff between clipping and false detection errors. The performance compares very favorably with the adaptive multirate VAD, option 2 (AMR2.

A Semi-Continuous State-Transition Probability HMM-Based Voice Activity Detector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Othman H

2007-01-01

Full Text Available We introduce an efficient hidden Markov model-based voice activity detection (VAD algorithm with time-variant state-transition probabilities in the underlying Markov chain. The transition probabilities vary in an exponential charge/discharge scheme and are softly merged with state conditional likelihood into a final VAD decision. Working in the domain of ITU-T G.729 parameters, with no additional cost for feature extraction, the proposed algorithm significantly outperforms G.729 Annex B VAD while providing a balanced tradeoff between clipping and false detection errors. The performance compares very favorably with the adaptive multirate VAD, option 2 (AMR2.

Image Watermarking Scheme for Specifying False Positive Probability and Bit-pattern Embedding

Science.gov (United States)

Sayama, Kohei; Nakamoto, Masayoshi; Muneyasu, Mitsuji; Ohno, Shuichi

This paper treats a discrete wavelet transform(DWT)-based image watermarking with considering the false positive probability and bit-pattern embedding. We propose an iterative embedding algorithm of watermarking signals which are K sets pseudo-random numbers generated by a secret key. In the detection, K correlations between the watermarked DWT coefficients and watermark signals are computed by using the secret key. L correlations are made available for the judgment of the watermark presence with specified false positive probability, and the other K-L correlations are corresponding to the bit-pattern signal. In the experiment, we show the detection results with specified false positive probability and the bit-pattern recovery, and the comparison of the proposed method against JPEG compression, scaling down and cropping.

Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

Science.gov (United States)

Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

Guided waves based SHM systems for composites structural elements: statistical analyses finalized at probability of detection definition and assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Monaco, E.; Memmolo, V.; Ricci, F.; Boffa, N. D.; Maio, L.

2015-03-01

Maintenance approaches based on sensorised structures and Structural Health Monitoring systems could represent one of the most promising innovations in the fields of aerostructures since many years, mostly when composites materials (fibers reinforced resins) are considered. Layered materials still suffer today of drastic reductions of maximum allowable stress values during the design phase as well as of costly and recurrent inspections during the life cycle phase that don't permit of completely exploit their structural and economic potentialities in today aircrafts. Those penalizing measures are necessary mainly to consider the presence of undetected hidden flaws within the layered sequence (delaminations) or in bonded areas (partial disbonding); in order to relax design and maintenance constraints a system based on sensors permanently installed on the structure to detect and locate eventual flaws can be considered (SHM system) once its effectiveness and reliability will be statistically demonstrated via a rigorous Probability Of Detection function definition and evaluation. This paper presents an experimental approach with a statistical procedure for the evaluation of detection threshold of a guided waves based SHM system oriented to delaminations detection on a typical wing composite layered panel. The experimental tests are mostly oriented to characterize the statistical distribution of measurements and damage metrics as well as to characterize the system detection capability using this approach. Numerically it is not possible to substitute part of the experimental tests aimed at POD where the noise in the system response is crucial. Results of experiments are presented in the paper and analyzed.

Detection of actinides and rare earths in natural matrices with the AGLAE new, high sensitivity detection set-up

Science.gov (United States)

Zucchiatti, Alessandro; Alonso, Ursula; Lemasson, Quentin; Missana, Tiziana; Moignard, Brice; Pacheco, Claire; Pichon, Laurent; Camarena de la Mora, Sandra

2014-08-01

A series of granite samples (Grimsel and Äspö) enriched by sorption with natU (10-3 M, 10-4 M, 10-5 M in solution) and La (10-3 M, 10-4 M in solution) has been scanned by PIXE over a surface of 1920 × 1920 mm2 together with non-enriched Grimsel and Äspö granites and a glass standard. An assessment of minimum detection limits, MDL's, for several elements has been performed with the use of standard materials. Due to mapping and the high sensitivity of the new AGLAE detection system, U levels around 30 ppm can be detected from the whole PIXE spectrum (one low energy detector and four summed filtered detectors) while U reach grains, inhomogeneously distributed over the surface can be clearly identified through the multi elemental maps and analyzed separately. Even the nominally enriched samples have La levels below the MDL, probably because precipitation of the element (and not adsorption) mostly took place, and precipitates were eliminated after surface cleaning carried out before PIXE analyses. A multi detector system that implies a PIXE detection solid angle much wider than in any other similar set-up (a factor of 2-5); a higher events selectivity, given by the possibility of filtering individually up to 4 PIXE detectors; a double RBS detector, the new Ion Beam Induced Luminescence (IBIL) spectrometry and gamma spectrometry. Full mapping capability in air, assisted by a powerful event by event reconstruction software. These features allow lower Minimum Detection Limits (MDL) which are highly beneficial to the analysis of cultural heritage objects, meaning generally a reduction of irradiation time. Paintings will then be studied without any damage to the pigments that have color change tendencies which is a major drawback of the previous system. Alternatively they could allow an increase in information collected at equal time, particularly considering the detector's fast response and therefore the potential for high beam currents when sample damage can be

Male greater sage-grouse detectability on leks

Science.gov (United States)

Aleshia L. Fremgen; Christopher P. Hansen; Mark A. Rumble; R. Scott Gamo; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2016-01-01

It is unlikely all male sage-grouse are detected during lek counts, which could complicate the use of lek counts as an index to population abundance. Understanding factors that influence detection probabilities will allow managers to more accurately estimate the number of males present on leks. We fitted 410 males with global positioning system and very high...

Impact parameter dependence of inner-shell ionization probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cocke, C.L.

1974-01-01

The probability for ionization of an inner shell of a target atom by a heavy charged projectile is a sensitive function of the impact parameter characterizing the collision. This probability can be measured experimentally by detecting the x-ray resulting from radiative filling of the inner shell in coincidence with the projectile scattered at a determined angle, and by using the scattering angle to deduce the impact parameter. It is conjectured that the functional dependence of the ionization probability may be a more sensitive probe of the ionization mechanism than is a total cross section measurement. Experimental results for the K-shell ionization of both solid and gas targets by oxygen, carbon and fluorine projectiles in the MeV/amu energy range will be presented, and their use in illuminating the inelastic collision process discussed

Outage probability of dual-hop FSO fixed gain relay transmission systems

KAUST Repository

Zedini, Emna

2016-12-24

In this paper, we analyze the end-to-end performance of dual-hop free-space optical (FSO) fixed gain relaying systems in the presence of atmospheric turbulence as well as pointing errors. More specifically, an exact closed-form expression for the outage probability is presented in terms of the bivariate Fox\\'s H function that accounts for both heterodyne detection as well as intensity modulation with direct detection. At high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regime, we provide very tight asymptotic result for this performance metric in terms of simple elementary functions. By using dual-hop FSO relaying, we demonstrate a better system performance as compared to the single FSO link. Numerical and Monte-Carlo simulation results are provided to verify the accuracy of the newly proposed results, and a perfect agreement is observed.

Use of probabilistic methods for estimating failure probabilities and directing ISI-efforts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nilsson, F; Brickstad, B [University of Uppsala, (Switzerland)

1988-12-31

Some general aspects of the role of Non Destructive Testing (NDT) efforts on the resulting probability of core damage is discussed. A simple model for the estimation of the pipe break probability due to IGSCC is discussed. It is partly based on analytical procedures, partly on service experience from the Swedish BWR program. Estimates of the break probabilities indicate that further studies are urgently needed. It is found that the uncertainties about the initial crack configuration are large contributors to the total uncertainty. Some effects of the inservice inspection are studied and it is found that the detection probabilities influence the failure probabilities. (authors).

Probability concepts in quality risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Claycamp, H Gregg

2012-01-01

Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

Early detection monitoring for larval dreissenid mussels: how much plankton sampling is enough?

Science.gov (United States)

Counihan, Timothy D; Bollens, Stephen M

2017-03-01

The development of quagga and zebra mussel (dreissenids) monitoring programs in the Pacific Northwest provides a unique opportunity to evaluate a regional invasive species detection effort early in its development. Recent studies suggest that the ecological and economic costs of a dreissenid infestation in the Pacific Northwest of the USA would be significant. Consequently, efforts are underway to monitor for the presence of dreissenids. However, assessments of whether these efforts provide for early detection are lacking. We use information collected from 2012 to 2014 to characterize the development of larval dreissenid monitoring programs in the states of Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington in the context of introduction and establishment risk. We also estimate the effort needed for high-probability detection of rare planktonic taxa in four Columbia and Snake River reservoirs and assess whether the current level of effort provides for early detection. We found that the effort expended to monitor for dreissenid mussels increased substantially from 2012 to 2014, that efforts were distributed across risk categories ranging from high to very low, and that substantial gaps in our knowledge of both introduction and establishment risk exist. The estimated volume of filtered water required to fully census planktonic taxa or to provide high-probability detection of rare taxa was high for the four reservoirs examined. We conclude that the current level of effort expended does not provide for high-probability detection of larval dreissenids or other planktonic taxa when they are rare in these reservoirs. We discuss options to improve early detection capabilities.

Approximation of rejective sampling inclusion probabilities and application to high order correlations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boistard, H.; Lopuhää, H.P.; Ruiz-Gazen, A.

2012-01-01

This paper is devoted to rejective sampling. We provide an expansion of joint inclusion probabilities of any order in terms of the inclusion probabilities of order one, extending previous results by Hájek (1964) and Hájek (1981) and making the remainder term more precise. Following Hájek (1981), the

Statistics provide guidance for indigenous organic carbon detection on Mars missions.

Science.gov (United States)

Sephton, Mark A; Carter, Jonathan N

2014-08-01

Data from the Viking and Mars Science Laboratory missions indicate the presence of organic compounds that are not definitively martian in origin. Both contamination and confounding mineralogies have been suggested as alternatives to indigenous organic carbon. Intuitive thought suggests that we are repeatedly obtaining data that confirms the same level of uncertainty. Bayesian statistics may suggest otherwise. If an organic detection method has a true positive to false positive ratio greater than one, then repeated organic matter detection progressively increases the probability of indigeneity. Bayesian statistics also reveal that methods with higher ratios of true positives to false positives give higher overall probabilities and that detection of organic matter in a sample with a higher prior probability of indigenous organic carbon produces greater confidence. Bayesian statistics, therefore, provide guidance for the planning and operation of organic carbon detection activities on Mars. Suggestions for future organic carbon detection missions and instruments are as follows: (i) On Earth, instruments should be tested with analog samples of known organic content to determine their true positive to false positive ratios. (ii) On the mission, for an instrument with a true positive to false positive ratio above one, it should be recognized that each positive detection of organic carbon will result in a progressive increase in the probability of indigenous organic carbon being present; repeated measurements, therefore, can overcome some of the deficiencies of a less-than-definitive test. (iii) For a fixed number of analyses, the highest true positive to false positive ratio method or instrument will provide the greatest probability that indigenous organic carbon is present. (iv) On Mars, analyses should concentrate on samples with highest prior probability of indigenous organic carbon; intuitive desires to contrast samples of high prior probability and low prior

Detecting and classifying low probability of intercept radar

CERN Document Server

Pace, Philip E

2008-01-01

This revised and expanded second edition brings you to the cutting edge with new chapters on LPI radar design, including over-the-horizon radar, random noise radar, and netted LPI radar. You also discover critical LPI detection techniques, parameter extraction signal processing techniques, and anti-radiation missile design strategies to counter LPI radar.

Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassinelli, G.

1979-01-01

The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)

A 'new' Cromer-related high frequency antigen probably antithetical to WES.

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, G L; Green, C A; Darr, F W; Anderson, H; Sistonen, P

1987-01-01

An antibody to a high frequency antigen, made in a WES+ Black antenatal patient (Wash.), failed to react with the red cells of a presumed WES+ homozygote and is, therefore, probably antithetical to anti-WES. Like anti-WES, it reacted with papain, ficin, trypsin or neuraminidase treated cells but not with alpha-chymotrypsin or pronase treated cells and was specifically inhibited by concentrated serum. It also reacted more strongly in titration with WES- cells than with WES+ cells. The antibody is Cromer-related as it failed to react with Inab phenotype (IFC-) cells and reacted only weakly with Dr(a-) cells. Wash. cells and those of the other possible WES+ homozygote are Cr(a+) Tc(a+b-c-) Dr(a+) IFC+ but reacted only very weakly with anti-Esa.

Correlator bank detection of gravitational wave chirps--False-alarm probability, template density, and thresholds: Behind and beyond the minimal-match issue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Croce, R.P.; Demma, Th.; Pierro, V.; Pinto, I.M.; Longo, M.; Marano, S.; Matta, V.

2004-01-01

The general problem of computing the false-alarm probability vs the detection-threshold relationship for a bank of correlators is addressed, in the context of maximum-likelihood detection of gravitational waves in additive stationary Gaussian noise. Specific reference is made to chirps from coalescing binary systems. Accurate (lower-bound) approximants for the cumulative distribution of the whole-bank supremum are deduced from a class of Bonferroni-type inequalities. The asymptotic properties of the cumulative distribution are obtained, in the limit where the number of correlators goes to infinity. The validity of numerical simulations made on small-size banks is extended to banks of any size, via a Gaussian-correlation inequality. The result is used to readdress the problem of relating the template density to the fraction of potentially observable sources which could be dismissed as an effect of template space discreteness

High-speed detection of DNA translocation in nanopipettes

Science.gov (United States)

Fraccari, Raquel L.; Ciccarella, Pietro; Bahrami, Azadeh; Carminati, Marco; Ferrari, Giorgio; Albrecht, Tim

2016-03-01

We present a high-speed electrical detection scheme based on a custom-designed CMOS amplifier which allows the analysis of DNA translocation in glass nanopipettes on a microsecond timescale. Translocation of different DNA lengths in KCl electrolyte provides a scaling factor of the DNA translocation time equal to p = 1.22, which is different from values observed previously with nanopipettes in LiCl electrolyte or with nanopores. Based on a theoretical model involving electrophoresis, hydrodynamics and surface friction, we show that the experimentally observed range of p-values may be the result of, or at least be affected by DNA adsorption and friction between the DNA and the substrate surface.We present a high-speed electrical detection scheme based on a custom-designed CMOS amplifier which allows the analysis of DNA translocation in glass nanopipettes on a microsecond timescale. Translocation of different DNA lengths in KCl electrolyte provides a scaling factor of the DNA translocation time equal to p = 1.22, which is different from values observed previously with nanopipettes in LiCl electrolyte or with nanopores. Based on a theoretical model involving electrophoresis, hydrodynamics and surface friction, we show that the experimentally observed range of p-values may be the result of, or at least be affected by DNA adsorption and friction between the DNA and the substrate surface. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available: Gel electrophoresis confirming lengths and purity of DNA samples, comparison between Axopatch 200B and custom-built setup, comprehensive low-noise amplifier characterization, representative I-V curves of nanopipettes used, typical scatter plots of τ vs. peak amplitude for the four LDNA's used, table of most probable τ values, a comparison between different fitting models for the DNA translocation time distribution, further details on the stochastic numerical simulation of the scaling statistics and the derivation of the extended

Development and application of a most probable number-PCR assay to quantify flagellate populations in soil samples

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fredslund, Line; Ekelund, Flemming; Jacobsen, Carsten Suhr

2001-01-01

This paper reports on the first successful molecular detection and quantification of soil protozoa. Quantification of heterotrophic flagellates and naked amoebae in soil has traditionally relied on dilution culturing techniques, followed by most-probable-number (MPN) calculations. Such methods...... are biased by differences in the culturability of soil protozoa and are unable to quantify specific taxonomic groups, and the results are highly dependent on the choice of media and the skills of the microscopists. Successful detection of protozoa in soil by DNA techniques requires (i) the development...

Advanced RESTART method for the estimation of the probability of failure of highly reliable hybrid dynamic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turati, Pietro; Pedroni, Nicola; Zio, Enrico

2016-01-01

The efficient estimation of system reliability characteristics is of paramount importance for many engineering applications. Real world system reliability modeling calls for the capability of treating systems that are: i) dynamic, ii) complex, iii) hybrid and iv) highly reliable. Advanced Monte Carlo (MC) methods offer a way to solve these types of problems, which are feasible according to the potentially high computational costs. In this paper, the REpetitive Simulation Trials After Reaching Thresholds (RESTART) method is employed, extending it to hybrid systems for the first time (to the authors’ knowledge). The estimation accuracy and precision of RESTART highly depend on the choice of the Importance Function (IF) indicating how close the system is to failure: in this respect, proper IFs are here originally proposed to improve the performance of RESTART for the analysis of hybrid systems. The resulting overall simulation approach is applied to estimate the probability of failure of the control system of a liquid hold-up tank and of a pump-valve subsystem subject to degradation induced by fatigue. The results are compared to those obtained by standard MC simulation and by RESTART with classical IFs available in the literature. The comparison shows the improvement in the performance obtained by our approach. - Highlights: • We consider the issue of estimating small failure probabilities in dynamic systems. • We employ the RESTART method to estimate the failure probabilities. • New Importance Functions (IFs) are introduced to increase the method performance. • We adopt two dynamic, hybrid, highly reliable systems as case studies. • A comparison with literature IFs proves the effectiveness of the new IFs.

Failure probability of PWR reactor coolant loop piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lo, T.; Woo, H.H.; Holman, G.S.; Chou, C.K.

1984-02-01

This paper describes the results of assessments performed on the PWR coolant loop piping of Westinghouse and Combustion Engineering plants. For direct double-ended guillotine break (DEGB), consideration was given to crack existence probability, initial crack size distribution, hydrostatic proof test, preservice inspection, leak detection probability, crack growth characteristics, and failure criteria based on the net section stress failure and tearing modulus stability concept. For indirect DEGB, fragilities of major component supports were estimated. The system level fragility was then calculated based on the Boolean expression involving these fragilities. Indirect DEGB due to seismic effects was calculated by convolving the system level fragility and the seismic hazard curve. The results indicate that the probability of occurrence of both direct and indirect DEGB is extremely small, thus, postulation of DEGB in design should be eliminated and replaced by more realistic criteria

Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

2004-01-01

Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

Estimating the Probability of Traditional Copying, Conditional on Answer-Copying Statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Jeff; Ghattas, Andrew

2016-06-01

Statistics for detecting copying on multiple-choice tests produce p values measuring the probability of a value at least as large as that observed, under the null hypothesis of no copying. The posterior probability of copying is arguably more relevant than the p value, but cannot be derived from Bayes' theorem unless the population probability of copying and probability distribution of the answer-copying statistic under copying are known. In this article, the authors develop an estimator for the posterior probability of copying that is based on estimable quantities and can be used with any answer-copying statistic. The performance of the estimator is evaluated via simulation, and the authors demonstrate how to apply the formula using actual data. Potential uses, generalizability to other types of cheating, and limitations of the approach are discussed.

Modern Approaches to the Computation of the Probability of Target Detection in Cluttered Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Meitzler, Thomas J.

The field of computer vision interacts with fields such as psychology, vision research, machine vision, psychophysics, mathematics, physics, and computer science. The focus of this thesis is new algorithms and methods for the computation of the probability of detection (Pd) of a target in a cluttered scene. The scene can be either a natural visual scene such as one sees with the naked eye (visual), or, a scene displayed on a monitor with the help of infrared sensors. The relative clutter and the temperature difference between the target and background (DeltaT) are defined and then used to calculate a relative signal -to-clutter ratio (SCR) from which the Pd is calculated for a target in a cluttered scene. It is shown how this definition can include many previous definitions of clutter and (DeltaT). Next, fuzzy and neural -fuzzy techniques are used to calculate the Pd and it is shown how these methods can give results that have a good correlation with experiment. The experimental design for actually measuring the Pd of a target by observers is described. Finally, wavelets are applied to the calculation of clutter and it is shown how this new definition of clutter based on wavelets can be used to compute the Pd of a target.

Development of risk assessment simulation tool for optimal control of a low probability-high consequence disaster

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yotsumoto, Hiroki; Yoshida, Kikuo; Genchi, Hiroshi

2011-01-01

In order to control low probability-high consequence disaster which causes huge social and economic damage, it is necessary to develop simultaneous risk assessment simulation tool based on the scheme of disaster risk including diverse effects of primary disaster and secondary damages. We propose the scheme of this risk simulation tool. (author)

COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.

1979-01-01

1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions

On Probability Leakage

OpenAIRE

Briggs, William M.

2012-01-01

The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

Intelligent tutorial system for teaching of probability and statistics at high school in Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Gudino Penaloza, Miguel Gonzalez Mendoza, Neil Hernandez Gress, Jaime Mora Vargas

2009-12-01

Full Text Available This paper describes the implementation of an intelligent tutoring system dedicated to teaching probability and statistics atthe preparatory school (or high school in Mexico. The system solution was used as a desktop computer and adapted tocarry a mobile environment for the implementation of mobile learning or m-learning. The system complies with the idea ofbeing adaptable to the needs of each student and is able to adapt to three different teaching models that meet the criteriaof three student profiles.

New detection systems of bacteria using highly selective media designed by SMART: selective medium-design algorithm restricted by two constraints.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takeshi Kawanishi

Full Text Available Culturing is an indispensable technique in microbiological research, and culturing with selective media has played a crucial role in the detection of pathogenic microorganisms and the isolation of commercially useful microorganisms from environmental samples. Although numerous selective media have been developed in empirical studies, unintended microorganisms often grow on such media probably due to the enormous numbers of microorganisms in the environment. Here, we present a novel strategy for designing highly selective media based on two selective agents, a carbon source and antimicrobials. We named our strategy SMART for highly Selective Medium-design Algorithm Restricted by Two constraints. To test whether the SMART method is applicable to a wide range of microorganisms, we developed selective media for Burkholderia glumae, Acidovorax avenae, Pectobacterium carotovorum, Ralstonia solanacearum, and Xanthomonas campestris. The series of media developed by SMART specifically allowed growth of the targeted bacteria. Because these selective media exhibited high specificity for growth of the target bacteria compared to established selective media, we applied three notable detection technologies: paper-based, flow cytometry-based, and color change-based detection systems for target bacteria species. SMART facilitates not only the development of novel techniques for detecting specific bacteria, but also our understanding of the ecology and epidemiology of the targeted bacteria.

A Comparison of Error Bounds for a Nonlinear Tracking System with Detection Probability Pd < 1

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Huisi; Zhang, Hao; Meng, Huadong; Wang, Xiqin

2012-01-01

Error bounds for nonlinear filtering are very important for performance evaluation and sensor management. This paper presents a comparative study of three error bounds for tracking filtering, when the detection probability is less than unity. One of these bounds is the random finite set (RFS) bound, which is deduced within the framework of finite set statistics. The others, which are the information reduction factor (IRF) posterior Cramer-Rao lower bound (PCRLB) and enumeration method (ENUM) PCRLB are introduced within the framework of finite vector statistics. In this paper, we deduce two propositions and prove that the RFS bound is equal to the ENUM PCRLB, while it is tighter than the IRF PCRLB, when the target exists from the beginning to the end. Considering the disappearance of existing targets and the appearance of new targets, the RFS bound is tighter than both IRF PCRLB and ENUM PCRLB with time, by introducing the uncertainty of target existence. The theory is illustrated by two nonlinear tracking applications: ballistic object tracking and bearings-only tracking. The simulation studies confirm the theory and reveal the relationship among the three bounds. PMID:23242274

Influence of the Probability Level on the Framing Effect

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaja Damnjanovic

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Research of the framing effect of risky choice mostly applies to the tasks where the effect of only one probability or risk level on the choice of non-risky or risky options was examined. The conducted research was aimed to examine the framing effect in the function of probability level in the outcome of a risk option in three decision-making domains: health, money and human lives. It has been confirmed that the decision-making domain moderates the framing effect. In the monetary domain, the general risk aversion has been confirmed as registered in earlier research. At high probability levels, the framing effect is registered in both frames, while no framing effect is registered at lower probability levels. In the domain of decision-making about human lives, the framing effect is registered at medium high and medium low probability levels. In the domain of decision-making about health, the framing effect is registered almost in the entire probability range while this domain differs from the former two. The results show that the attitude to risk is not identical at different probability levels, that the dynamics of the attitude to risk influences the framing effect, and that the framing effect pattern is different in different decision-making domains. In other words, linguistic manipulation representing the frame in the tasks affects the change in the preference order only when the possibility of gain (expressed in probability is estimated as sufficiently high.

Evaluation of Correlation between Pretest Probability for Clostridium difficile Infection and Clostridium difficile Enzyme Immunoassay Results.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, Jennie H; Reske, Kimberly A; Hink, Tiffany; Burnham, C A; Dubberke, Erik R

2017-02-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the clinical characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized patients tested for Clostridium difficile and determine the correlation between pretest probability for C. difficile infection (CDI) and assay results. Patients with testing ordered for C. difficile were enrolled and assigned a high, medium, or low pretest probability of CDI based on clinical evaluation, laboratory, and imaging results. Stool was tested for C. difficile by toxin enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and toxigenic culture (TC). Chi-square analyses and the log rank test were utilized. Among the 111 patients enrolled, stool samples from nine were TC positive and four were EIA positive. Sixty-one (55%) patients had clinically significant diarrhea, 19 (17%) patients did not, and clinically significant diarrhea could not be determined for 31 (28%) patients. Seventy-two (65%) patients were assessed as having a low pretest probability of having CDI, 34 (31%) as having a medium probability, and 5 (5%) as having a high probability. None of the patients with low pretest probabilities had a positive EIA, but four were TC positive. None of the seven patients with a positive TC but a negative index EIA developed CDI within 30 days after the index test or died within 90 days after the index toxin EIA date. Pretest probability for CDI should be considered prior to ordering C. difficile testing and must be taken into account when interpreting test results. CDI is a clinical diagnosis supported by laboratory data, and the detection of toxigenic C. difficile in stool does not necessarily confirm the diagnosis of CDI. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

fatalityCMR: capture-recapture software to correct raw counts of wildlife fatalities using trial experiments for carcass detection probability and persistence time

Science.gov (United States)

Peron, Guillaume; Hines, James E.

2014-01-01

Many industrial and agricultural activities involve wildlife fatalities by collision, poisoning or other involuntary harvest: wind turbines, highway network, utility network, tall structures, pesticides, etc. Impacted wildlife may benefit from official protection, including the requirement to monitor the impact. Carcass counts can often be conducted to quantify the number of fatalities, but they need to be corrected for carcass persistence time (removal by scavengers and decay) and detection probability (searcher efficiency). In this article we introduce a new piece of software that fits a superpopulation capture-recapture model to raw count data. It uses trial data to estimate detection and daily persistence probabilities. A recurrent issue is that fatalities of rare, protected species are infrequent, in which case the software offers the option to switch to an ‘evidence of absence’ mode, i.e., estimate the number of carcasses that may have been missed by field crews. The software allows distinguishing between different turbine types (e.g. different vegetation cover under turbines, or different technical properties), as well between two carcass age-classes or states, with transition between those classes (e.g, fresh and dry). There is a data simulation capacity that may be used at the planning stage to optimize sampling design. Resulting mortality estimates can be used 1) to quantify the required amount of compensation, 2) inform mortality projections for proposed development sites, and 3) inform decisions about management of existing sites.

Alpha-particle emission probabilities of ²³⁶U obtained by alpha spectrometry.

Science.gov (United States)

Marouli, M; Pommé, S; Jobbágy, V; Van Ammel, R; Paepen, J; Stroh, H; Benedik, L

2014-05-01

High-resolution alpha-particle spectrometry was performed with an ion-implanted silicon detector in vacuum on a homogeneously electrodeposited (236)U source. The source was measured at different solid angles subtended by the detector, varying between 0.8% and 2.4% of 4π sr, to assess the influence of coincidental detection of alpha-particles and conversion electrons on the measured alpha-particle emission probabilities. Additional measurements were performed using a bending magnet to eliminate conversion electrons, the results of which coincide with normal measurements extrapolated to an infinitely small solid angle. The measured alpha emission probabilities for the three main peaks - 74.20 (5)%, 25.68 (5)% and 0.123 (5)%, respectively - are consistent with literature data, but their precision has been improved by at least one order of magnitude in this work. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Space Object Conjunction Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Carpenter, James R.; Markley, F Landis

2014-01-01

This paper shows how satellite owner/operators may use sequential estimates of collision probability, along with a prior assessment of the base risk of collision, in a compound hypothesis ratio test to inform decisions concerning collision risk mitigation maneuvers. The compound hypothesis test reduces to a simple probability ratio test, which appears to be a novel result. The test satisfies tolerances related to targeted false alarm and missed detection rates. This result is independent of the method one uses to compute the probability density that one integrates to compute collision probability. A well-established test case from the literature shows that this test yields acceptable results within the constraints of a typical operational conjunction assessment decision timeline. Another example illustrates the use of the test in a practical conjunction assessment scenario based on operations of the International Space Station.

Probability and containment of turbine missiles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeh, G.C.K.

1976-01-01

With the trend toward ever larger power generating plants with large high-speed turbines, an important plant design consideration is the potential for and consequences of mechanical failure of turbine rotors. Such rotor failure could result in high-velocity disc fragments (turbine missiles) perforating the turbine casing and jeopardizing vital plant systems. The designer must first estimate the probability of any turbine missile damaging any safety-related plant component for his turbine and his plant arrangement. If the probability is not low enough to be acceptable to the regulatory agency, he must design a shield to contain the postulated turbine missiles. Alternatively, the shield could be designed to retard (to reduce the velocity of) the missiles such that they would not damage any vital plant system. In this paper, some of the presently available references that can be used to evaluate the probability, containment and retardation of turbine missiles are reviewed; various alternative methods are compared; and subjects for future research are recommended. (Auth.)

Probability Model for Data Redundancy Detection in Sensor Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suman Kumar

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Sensor networks are made of autonomous devices that are able to collect, store, process and share data with other devices. Large sensor networks are often redundant in the sense that the measurements of some nodes can be substituted by other nodes with a certain degree of confidence. This spatial correlation results in wastage of link bandwidth and energy. In this paper, a model for two associated Poisson processes, through which sensors are distributed in a plane, is derived. A probability condition is established for data redundancy among closely located sensor nodes. The model generates a spatial bivariate Poisson process whose parameters depend on the parameters of the two individual Poisson processes and on the distance between the associated points. The proposed model helps in building efficient algorithms for data dissemination in the sensor network. A numerical example is provided investigating the advantage of this model.

ELIPGRID-PC: A PC program for calculating hot spot probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davidson, J.R.

1994-10-01

ELIPGRID-PC, a new personal computer program has been developed to provide easy access to Singer's 1972 ELIPGRID algorithm for hot-spot detection probabilities. Three features of the program are the ability to determine: (1) the grid size required for specified conditions, (2) the smallest hot spot that can be sampled with a given probability, and (3) the approximate grid size resulting from specified conditions and sampling cost. ELIPGRID-PC also provides probability of hit versus cost data for graphing with spread-sheets or graphics software. The program has been successfully tested using Singer's published ELIPGRID results. An apparent error in the original ELIPGRID code has been uncovered and an appropriate modification incorporated into the new program

Probability of undetected error after decoding for a concatenated coding scheme

Science.gov (United States)

Costello, D. J., Jr.; Lin, S.

1984-01-01

A concatenated coding scheme for error control in data communications is analyzed. In this scheme, the inner code is used for both error correction and detection, however the outer code is used only for error detection. A retransmission is requested if the outer code detects the presence of errors after the inner code decoding. Probability of undetected error is derived and bounded. A particular example, proposed for NASA telecommand system is analyzed.

Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vourdas, A.

2014-01-01

The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator D(H 1 ,H 2 ), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors P(H 1 ),P(H 2 ), to the subspaces H 1 , H 2 . As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities

Use of maternal information for QTL detection in a (granddaughter design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boichard Didier

2002-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract In a (granddaughter design, maternal information is often neglected because the number of progeny per dam is limited. The number of dams per maternal grandsire (MGS, however, could be large enough to contribute to QTL detection. But dams and MGS usually are not genotyped, there are two recombination opportunities between the MGS and the progeny, and at a given location, only half the progeny receive a MGS chromosomal segment. A 3-step procedure was developed to estimate: (1 the marker phenotypes probabilities of the MGS; (2 the probability of each possible MGS haplotype; (3 the probabilities that the progeny receives either the first, or second MGS segment, or a maternal grandam segment. These probabilities were used for QTL detection in a linear model including the effects of sire, MGS, paternal QTL, MGS QTL and maternal grandam QTL. Including the grandam QTL effect makes it possible to detect QTL in the grandam population, even when MGS are not informative. The detection power, studied by simulation, was rather high, provided that MGS family size was greater than 50. Using maternal information in the French dairy cattle granddaughter design made it possible to detect 23 additional QTL genomewise significant.

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

Science.gov (United States)

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Failure probability analysis of optical grid

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Sun, Weiqiang; Jin, Yaohui; Hu, Weisheng

2008-11-01

Optical grid, the integrated computing environment based on optical network, is expected to be an efficient infrastructure to support advanced data-intensive grid applications. In optical grid, the faults of both computational and network resources are inevitable due to the large scale and high complexity of the system. With the optical network based distributed computing systems extensive applied in the processing of data, the requirement of the application failure probability have been an important indicator of the quality of application and an important aspect the operators consider. This paper will present a task-based analysis method of the application failure probability in optical grid. Then the failure probability of the entire application can be quantified, and the performance of reducing application failure probability in different backup strategies can be compared, so that the different requirements of different clients can be satisfied according to the application failure probability respectively. In optical grid, when the application based DAG (directed acyclic graph) is executed in different backup strategies, the application failure probability and the application complete time is different. This paper will propose new multi-objective differentiated services algorithm (MDSA). New application scheduling algorithm can guarantee the requirement of the failure probability and improve the network resource utilization, realize a compromise between the network operator and the application submission. Then differentiated services can be achieved in optical grid.

From Remotely Sensed Vegetation Onset to Sowing Dates: Aggregating Pixel-Level Detections into Village-Level Sowing Probabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo Marinho

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Monitoring the start of the crop season in Sahel provides decision makers with valuable information for an early assessment of potential production and food security threats. Presently, the most common method for the estimation of sowing dates in West African countries consists of applying given thresholds on rainfall estimations. However, the coarse spatial resolution and the possible inaccuracy of these estimations are limiting factors. In this context, the remote sensing approach, which consists of deriving green-up onset dates from satellite remote sensing data, appears as an interesting alternative. It builds upon a novel statistic model that translates vegetation onset detections derived from MODIS time series into sowing probabilities at the village level. Results for Niger show that this approach outperforms the standard method adopted in the region based on rainfall thresholds.

Can Probability Maps of Swept-Source Optical Coherence Tomography Predict Visual Field Changes in Preperimetric Glaucoma?

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Won June; Kim, Young Kook; Jeoung, Jin Wook; Park, Ki Ho

2017-12-01

To determine the usefulness of swept-source optical coherence tomography (SS-OCT) probability maps in detecting locations with significant reduction in visual field (VF) sensitivity or predicting future VF changes, in patients with classically defined preperimetric glaucoma (PPG). Of 43 PPG patients, 43 eyes were followed-up on every 6 months for at least 2 years were analyzed in this longitudinal study. The patients underwent wide-field SS-OCT scanning and standard automated perimetry (SAP) at the time of enrollment. With this wide-scan protocol, probability maps originating from the corresponding thickness map and overlapped with SAP VF test points could be generated. We evaluated the vulnerable VF points with SS-OCT probability maps as well as the prevalence of locations with significant VF reduction or subsequent VF changes observed in the corresponding damaged areas of the probability maps. The vulnerable VF points were shown in superior and inferior arcuate patterns near the central fixation. In 19 of 43 PPG eyes (44.2%), significant reduction in baseline VF was detected within the areas of structural change on the SS-OCT probability maps. In 16 of 43 PPG eyes (37.2%), subsequent VF changes within the areas of SS-OCT probability map change were observed over the course of the follow-up. Structural changes on SS-OCT probability maps could detect or predict VF changes using SAP, in a considerable number of PPG eyes. Careful comparison of probability maps with SAP results could be useful in diagnosing and monitoring PPG patients in the clinical setting.

Robust estimation of the expected survival probabilities from high-dimensional Cox models with biomarker-by-treatment interactions in randomized clinical trials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nils Ternès

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Thanks to the advances in genomics and targeted treatments, more and more prediction models based on biomarkers are being developed to predict potential benefit from treatments in a randomized clinical trial. Despite the methodological framework for the development and validation of prediction models in a high-dimensional setting is getting more and more established, no clear guidance exists yet on how to estimate expected survival probabilities in a penalized model with biomarker-by-treatment interactions. Methods Based on a parsimonious biomarker selection in a penalized high-dimensional Cox model (lasso or adaptive lasso, we propose a unified framework to: estimate internally the predictive accuracy metrics of the developed model (using double cross-validation; estimate the individual survival probabilities at a given timepoint; construct confidence intervals thereof (analytical or bootstrap; and visualize them graphically (pointwise or smoothed with spline. We compared these strategies through a simulation study covering scenarios with or without biomarker effects. We applied the strategies to a large randomized phase III clinical trial that evaluated the effect of adding trastuzumab to chemotherapy in 1574 early breast cancer patients, for which the expression of 462 genes was measured. Results In our simulations, penalized regression models using the adaptive lasso estimated the survival probability of new patients with low bias and standard error; bootstrapped confidence intervals had empirical coverage probability close to the nominal level across very different scenarios. The double cross-validation performed on the training data set closely mimicked the predictive accuracy of the selected models in external validation data. We also propose a useful visual representation of the expected survival probabilities using splines. In the breast cancer trial, the adaptive lasso penalty selected a prediction model with 4

An novel frequent probability pattern mining algorithm based on circuit simulation method in uncertain biological networks

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Motif mining has always been a hot research topic in bioinformatics. Most of current research on biological networks focuses on exact motif mining. However, due to the inevitable experimental error and noisy data, biological network data represented as the probability model could better reflect the authenticity and biological significance, therefore, it is more biological meaningful to discover probability motif in uncertain biological networks. One of the key steps in probability motif mining is frequent pattern discovery which is usually based on the possible world model having a relatively high computational complexity. Methods In this paper, we present a novel method for detecting frequent probability patterns based on circuit simulation in the uncertain biological networks. First, the partition based efficient search is applied to the non-tree like subgraph mining where the probability of occurrence in random networks is small. Then, an algorithm of probability isomorphic based on circuit simulation is proposed. The probability isomorphic combines the analysis of circuit topology structure with related physical properties of voltage in order to evaluate the probability isomorphism between probability subgraphs. The circuit simulation based probability isomorphic can avoid using traditional possible world model. Finally, based on the algorithm of probability subgraph isomorphism, two-step hierarchical clustering method is used to cluster subgraphs, and discover frequent probability patterns from the clusters. Results The experiment results on data sets of the Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) networks and the transcriptional regulatory networks of E. coli and S. cerevisiae show that the proposed method can efficiently discover the frequent probability subgraphs. The discovered subgraphs in our study contain all probability motifs reported in the experiments published in other related papers. Conclusions The algorithm of probability graph isomorphism

Detecting Android Malwares with High-Efficient Hybrid Analyzing Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Liu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In order to tackle the security issues caused by malwares of Android OS, we proposed a high-efficient hybrid-detecting scheme for Android malwares. Our scheme employed different analyzing methods (static and dynamic methods to construct a flexible detecting scheme. In this paper, we proposed some detecting techniques such as Com+ feature based on traditional Permission and API call features to improve the performance of static detection. The collapsing issue of traditional function call graph-based malware detection was also avoided, as we adopted feature selection and clustering method to unify function call graph features of various dimensions into same dimension. In order to verify the performance of our scheme, we built an open-access malware dataset in our experiments. The experimental results showed that the suggested scheme achieved high malware-detecting accuracy, and the scheme could be used to establish Android malware-detecting cloud services, which can automatically adopt high-efficiency analyzing methods according to the properties of the Android applications.

Capturing alternative secondary structures of RNA by decomposition of base-pairing probabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagio, Taichi; Sakuraba, Shun; Iwakiri, Junichi; Mori, Ryota; Asai, Kiyoshi

2018-02-19

It is known that functional RNAs often switch their functions by forming different secondary structures. Popular tools for RNA secondary structures prediction, however, predict the single 'best' structures, and do not produce alternative structures. There are bioinformatics tools to predict suboptimal structures, but it is difficult to detect which alternative secondary structures are essential. We proposed a new computational method to detect essential alternative secondary structures from RNA sequences by decomposing the base-pairing probability matrix. The decomposition is calculated by a newly implemented software tool, RintW, which efficiently computes the base-pairing probability distributions over the Hamming distance from arbitrary reference secondary structures. The proposed approach has been demonstrated on ROSE element RNA thermometer sequence and Lysine RNA ribo-switch, showing that the proposed approach captures conformational changes in secondary structures. We have shown that alternative secondary structures are captured by decomposing base-paring probabilities over Hamming distance. Source code is available from http://www.ncRNA.org/RintW .

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Goldberg, Samuel

1960-01-01

Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

Estimation of probability density functions of damage parameter for valve leakage detection in reciprocating pump used in nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Jong Kyeom; Kim, Tae Yun; Kim, Hyun Su; Chai, Jang Bom; Lee, Jin Woo [Div. of Mechanical Engineering, Ajou University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

This paper presents an advanced estimation method for obtaining the probability density functions of a damage parameter for valve leakage detection in a reciprocating pump. The estimation method is based on a comparison of model data which are simulated by using a mathematical model, and experimental data which are measured on the inside and outside of the reciprocating pump in operation. The mathematical model, which is simplified and extended on the basis of previous models, describes not only the normal state of the pump, but also its abnormal state caused by valve leakage. The pressure in the cylinder is expressed as a function of the crankshaft angle, and an additional volume flow rate due to the valve leakage is quantified by a damage parameter in the mathematical model. The change in the cylinder pressure profiles due to the suction valve leakage is noticeable in the compression and expansion modes of the pump. The damage parameter value over 300 cycles is calculated in two ways, considering advance or delay in the opening and closing angles of the discharge valves. The probability density functions of the damage parameter are compared for diagnosis and prognosis on the basis of the probabilistic features of valve leakage.

Estimation of probability density functions of damage parameter for valve leakage detection in reciprocating pump used in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Jong Kyeom; Kim, Tae Yun; Kim, Hyun Su; Chai, Jang Bom; Lee, Jin Woo

2016-01-01

This paper presents an advanced estimation method for obtaining the probability density functions of a damage parameter for valve leakage detection in a reciprocating pump. The estimation method is based on a comparison of model data which are simulated by using a mathematical model, and experimental data which are measured on the inside and outside of the reciprocating pump in operation. The mathematical model, which is simplified and extended on the basis of previous models, describes not only the normal state of the pump, but also its abnormal state caused by valve leakage. The pressure in the cylinder is expressed as a function of the crankshaft angle, and an additional volume flow rate due to the valve leakage is quantified by a damage parameter in the mathematical model. The change in the cylinder pressure profiles due to the suction valve leakage is noticeable in the compression and expansion modes of the pump. The damage parameter value over 300 cycles is calculated in two ways, considering advance or delay in the opening and closing angles of the discharge valves. The probability density functions of the damage parameter are compared for diagnosis and prognosis on the basis of the probabilistic features of valve leakage

Estimation of Probability Density Functions of Damage Parameter for Valve Leakage Detection in Reciprocating Pump Used in Nuclear Power Plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jong Kyeom Lee

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an advanced estimation method for obtaining the probability density functions of a damage parameter for valve leakage detection in a reciprocating pump. The estimation method is based on a comparison of model data which are simulated by using a mathematical model, and experimental data which are measured on the inside and outside of the reciprocating pump in operation. The mathematical model, which is simplified and extended on the basis of previous models, describes not only the normal state of the pump, but also its abnormal state caused by valve leakage. The pressure in the cylinder is expressed as a function of the crankshaft angle, and an additional volume flow rate due to the valve leakage is quantified by a damage parameter in the mathematical model. The change in the cylinder pressure profiles due to the suction valve leakage is noticeable in the compression and expansion modes of the pump. The damage parameter value over 300 cycles is calculated in two ways, considering advance or delay in the opening and closing angles of the discharge valves. The probability density functions of the damage parameter are compared for diagnosis and prognosis on the basis of the probabilistic features of valve leakage.

Probability 1/e

Science.gov (United States)

Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

2011-01-01

Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

Microcystin Detection Characteristics of Fluorescence Immunochromatography and High Performance Liquid Chromatography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pyo, Dong Jin; Park, Geun Young; Choi, Jong Chon; Oh, Chang Suk

2005-01-01

Different detection characteristics of fluorescence immunochromatography method and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method for the analysis of cyanobacterial toxins were studied. In particular, low and high limits of detection, detection time and reproducibility and detectable microcystin species were compared when fluorescence immunochromatography method and high performance liquid chromatography method were applied for the detection of microcystin (MC), a cyclic peptide toxin of the freshwater cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa. A Fluorescence immunochromatography assay system has the unique advantages of short detection time and low detection limit, and high performance liquid chromatography detection method has the strong advantage of individual quantifications of several species of microcystins

Determining probabilities of geologic events and processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunter, R.L.; Mann, C.J.; Cranwell, R.M.

1985-01-01

The Environmental Protection Agency has recently published a probabilistic standard for releases of high-level radioactive waste from a mined geologic repository. The standard sets limits for contaminant releases with more than one chance in 100 of occurring within 10,000 years, and less strict limits for releases of lower probability. The standard offers no methods for determining probabilities of geologic events and processes, and no consensus exists in the waste-management community on how to do this. Sandia National Laboratories is developing a general method for determining probabilities of a given set of geologic events and processes. In addition, we will develop a repeatable method for dealing with events and processes whose probability cannot be determined. 22 refs., 4 figs

VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.

A high-throughput multiplex method adapted for GMO detection.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaouachi, Maher; Chupeau, Gaëlle; Berard, Aurélie; McKhann, Heather; Romaniuk, Marcel; Giancola, Sandra; Laval, Valérie; Bertheau, Yves; Brunel, Dominique

2008-12-24

A high-throughput multiplex assay for the detection of genetically modified organisms (GMO) was developed on the basis of the existing SNPlex method designed for SNP genotyping. This SNPlex assay allows the simultaneous detection of up to 48 short DNA sequences (approximately 70 bp; "signature sequences") from taxa endogenous reference genes, from GMO constructions, screening targets, construct-specific, and event-specific targets, and finally from donor organisms. This assay avoids certain shortcomings of multiplex PCR-based methods already in widespread use for GMO detection. The assay demonstrated high specificity and sensitivity. The results suggest that this assay is reliable, flexible, and cost- and time-effective for high-throughput GMO detection.

Event Discrimination Using Seismoacoustic Catalog Probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Albert, S.; Arrowsmith, S.; Bowman, D.; Downey, N.; Koch, C.

2017-12-01

Presented here are three seismoacoustic catalogs from various years and locations throughout Utah and New Mexico. To create these catalogs, we combine seismic and acoustic events detected and located using different algorithms. Seismoacoustic events are formed based on similarity of origin time and location. Following seismoacoustic fusion, the data is compared against ground truth events. Each catalog contains events originating from both natural and anthropogenic sources. By creating these seismoacoustic catalogs, we show that the fusion of seismic and acoustic data leads to a better understanding of the nature of individual events. The probability of an event being a surface blast given its presence in each seismoacoustic catalog is quantified. We use these probabilities to discriminate between events from natural and anthropogenic sources. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

Measurements of atomic transition probabilities in highly ionized atoms by fast ion beams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinson, I.; Curtis, L.J.; Lindgaerd, A.

1977-01-01

A summary is given of the beam-foil method by which level lifetimes and transition probabilities can be determined in atoms and ions. Results are presented for systems of particular interest for fusion research, such as the Li, Be, Na, Mg, Cu and Zn isoelectronic sequences. The available experimental material is compared to theoretical transition probabilities. (author)

Detecting and classifying low probability of intercept radar

CERN Document Server

Pace, Phillip E

2003-01-01

The drive is on to devise LPI radar systems that evade hostile detection as well as develop non-cooperative intercept devices that outsmart enemy LPI radar. Based on the author's own design experience, this comprehensive, hands-on book gives you the latest design and development techniques to innovate new LPI radar systems and discover new ways to intercept enemy LPI radar. and help you visually identify waveform parameters. Filled with more than 500 equations that provide rigorous mathematical detail, this book can be used by both entry-level and seasoned engineers. Besides thoroughly treatin

Low-resolution ship detection from high-altitude aerial images

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Shengxiang; Wu, Jianmin; Zhou, Qing; Kang, Minyang

2018-02-01

Ship detection from optical images taken by high-altitude aircrafts such as unmanned long-endurance airships and unmanned aerial vehicles has broad applications in marine fishery management, ship monitoring and vessel salvage. However, the major challenge is the limited capability of information processing on unmanned high-altitude platforms. Furthermore, in order to guarantee the wide detection range, unmanned aircrafts generally cruise at high altitudes, resulting in imagery with low-resolution targets and strong clutters suffered by heavy clouds. In this paper, we propose a low-resolution ship detection method to extract ships from these high-altitude optical images. Inspired by a recent research on visual saliency detection indicating that small salient signals could be well detected by a gradient enhancement operation combined with Gaussian smoothing, we propose the facet kernel filtering to rapidly suppress cluttered backgrounds and delineate candidate target regions from the sea surface. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used to compute the orientation of the target axis, followed by a simplified histogram of oriented gradient (HOG) descriptor to characterize the ship shape property. Finally, support vector machine (SVM) is applied to discriminate real targets and false alarms. Experimental results show that the proposed method actually has high efficiency in low-resolution ship detection.

Oil spill contamination probability in the southeastern Levantine basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldman, Ron; Biton, Eli; Brokovich, Eran; Kark, Salit; Levin, Noam

2015-02-15

Recent gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean Sea led to multiple operations with substantial economic interest, and with them there is a risk of oil spills and their potential environmental impacts. To examine the potential spatial distribution of this threat, we created seasonal maps of the probability of oil spill pollution reaching an area in the Israeli coastal and exclusive economic zones, given knowledge of its initial sources. We performed simulations of virtual oil spills using realistic atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The resulting maps show dominance of the alongshore northerly current, which causes the high probability areas to be stretched parallel to the coast, increasing contamination probability downstream of source points. The seasonal westerly wind forcing determines how wide the high probability areas are, and may also restrict these to a small coastal region near source points. Seasonal variability in probability distribution, oil state, and pollution time is also discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The exact probability distribution of the rank product statistics for replicated experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Eisinga, Rob; Breitling, Rainer; Heskes, Tom

2013-03-18

The rank product method is a widely accepted technique for detecting differentially regulated genes in replicated microarray experiments. To approximate the sampling distribution of the rank product statistic, the original publication proposed a permutation approach, whereas recently an alternative approximation based on the continuous gamma distribution was suggested. However, both approximations are imperfect for estimating small tail probabilities. In this paper we relate the rank product statistic to number theory and provide a derivation of its exact probability distribution and the true tail probabilities. Copyright © 2013 Federation of European Biochemical Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of spectral smoothing on gamma radiation portal alarm probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burr, T.; Hamada, M.; Hengartner, N.

2011-01-01

Gamma detector counts are included in radiation portal monitors (RPM) to screen for illicit nuclear material. Gamma counts are sometimes smoothed to reduce variance in the estimated underlying true mean count rate, which is the 'signal' in our context. Smoothing reduces total error variance in the estimated signal if the bias that smoothing introduces is more than offset by the variance reduction. An empirical RPM study for vehicle screening applications is presented for unsmoothed and smoothed gamma counts in low-resolution plastic scintillator detectors and in medium-resolution NaI detectors. - Highlights: → We evaluate options for smoothing counts from gamma detectors deployed for portal monitoring. → A new multiplicative bias correction (MBC) is shown to reduce bias in peak and valley regions. → Performance is measured using mean squared error and detection probabilities for sources. → Smoothing with the MBC improves detection probabilities and the mean squared error.

Foundations of probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fraassen, B.C. van

1979-01-01

The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)

Acoustic detection of the collapse of a sodium vapor bubble in an infinite sea of sodium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carey, W.M.

1975-12-01

A discussion of the problem of sodium vapor bubble collapse is presented. The physics of vapor collapse is presented in light of the work by Peppler et al. Theoretical estimates of the sound source level based on the work by Rayleigh and Judd are compared to an approximate pressure-volume work approach and recent experimental observations. Reactor ambient noise and transmission loss considerations are presented in regard to their impact on this detection problem. A methodology is proposed which considers the importance of the sound source level, ambient noise, transmission loss and a detection threshold and provides a means by which the feasibility of sodium vapor bubble collapse detection in an operating LMFBR may be assessed. The interrelationships between the detection threshold and the probability of detection and false alarm are discussed and applied to a standard acoustic square law detection system. This analysis clearly illustrates that the feasibility of such a detection system is strongly dependent on the knowledge of sound source levels, ambient noise levels and the transmission loss between the source and receiver. Furthermore, requirements of a high degree of probability of detection and a low probability of false alarm were found to require a high signal to noise ratio for a single sensor system but that the probability of false alarm requirement could be relaxed for systems multiple independent sensors. Finally, the need for additional experimental and theoretical information is presented in terms of sound source levels, ambient noise and a means for determining transmission loss

Non-Archimedean Probability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

Handbook of probability

CERN Document Server

Florescu, Ionut

2013-01-01

THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

Probability-1

CERN Document Server

Shiryaev, Albert N

2016-01-01

This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

Science.gov (United States)

Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

2011-01-01

Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

Highly sensitive real-time PCR for specific detection and quantification of Coxiella burnetii

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linke Sonja

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Coxiella burnetii, the bacterium causing Q fever, is an obligate intracellular biosafety level 3 agent. Detection and quantification of these bacteria with conventional methods is time consuming and dangerous. During the last years, several PCR based diagnostic assays were developed to detect C. burnetii DNA in cell cultures and clinical samples. We developed and evaluated TaqMan-based real-time PCR assays that targeted the singular icd (isocitrate dehydrogenase gene and the transposase of the IS1111a element present in multiple copies in the C. burnetii genome. Results To evaluate the precision of the icd and IS1111 real-time PCR assays, we performed different PCR runs with independent DNA dilutions of the C. burnetii Nine Mile RSA493 strain. The results showed very low variability, indicating efficient reproducibility of both assays. Using probit analysis, we determined that the minimal number of genome equivalents per reaction that could be detected with a 95% probability was 10 for the icd marker and 6.5 for the IS marker. Plasmid standards with cloned icd and IS1111 fragments were used to establish standard curves which were linear over a range from 10 to 107 starting plasmid copy numbers. We were able to quantify cell numbers of a diluted, heat-inactivated Coxiella isolate with a detection limit of 17 C. burnetii particles per reaction. Real-time PCR targeting both markers was performed with DNA of 75 different C. burnetii isolates originating from all over the world. Using this approach, the number of IS1111 elements in the genome of the Nine Mile strain was determined to be 23, close to 20, the number revealed by genome sequencing. In other isolates, the number of IS1111 elements varied widely (between seven and 110 and seemed to be very high in some isolates. Conclusion We validated TaqMan-based real-time PCR assays targeting the icd and IS1111 markers of C. burnetii. The assays were shown to be specific, highly

Hierarchical Decompositions for the Computation of High-Dimensional Multivariate Normal Probabilities

KAUST Repository

Genton, Marc G.

2017-09-07

We present a hierarchical decomposition scheme for computing the n-dimensional integral of multivariate normal probabilities that appear frequently in statistics. The scheme exploits the fact that the formally dense covariance matrix can be approximated by a matrix with a hierarchical low rank structure. It allows the reduction of the computational complexity per Monte Carlo sample from O(n2) to O(mn+knlog(n/m)), where k is the numerical rank of off-diagonal matrix blocks and m is the size of small diagonal blocks in the matrix that are not well-approximated by low rank factorizations and treated as dense submatrices. This hierarchical decomposition leads to substantial efficiencies in multivariate normal probability computations and allows integrations in thousands of dimensions to be practical on modern workstations.

Hierarchical Decompositions for the Computation of High-Dimensional Multivariate Normal Probabilities

KAUST Repository

Genton, Marc G.; Keyes, David E.; Turkiyyah, George

2017-01-01

We present a hierarchical decomposition scheme for computing the n-dimensional integral of multivariate normal probabilities that appear frequently in statistics. The scheme exploits the fact that the formally dense covariance matrix can be approximated by a matrix with a hierarchical low rank structure. It allows the reduction of the computational complexity per Monte Carlo sample from O(n2) to O(mn+knlog(n/m)), where k is the numerical rank of off-diagonal matrix blocks and m is the size of small diagonal blocks in the matrix that are not well-approximated by low rank factorizations and treated as dense submatrices. This hierarchical decomposition leads to substantial efficiencies in multivariate normal probability computations and allows integrations in thousands of dimensions to be practical on modern workstations.

Power allocation for target detection in radar networks based on low probability of intercept: A cooperative game theoretical strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Chenguang; Salous, Sana; Wang, Fei; Zhou, Jianjiang

2017-08-01

Distributed radar network systems have been shown to have many unique features. Due to their advantage of signal and spatial diversities, radar networks are attractive for target detection. In practice, the netted radars in radar networks are supposed to maximize their transmit power to achieve better detection performance, which may be in contradiction with low probability of intercept (LPI). Therefore, this paper investigates the problem of adaptive power allocation for radar networks in a cooperative game-theoretic framework such that the LPI performance can be improved. Taking into consideration both the transmit power constraints and the minimum signal to interference plus noise ratio (SINR) requirement of each radar, a cooperative Nash bargaining power allocation game based on LPI is formulated, whose objective is to minimize the total transmit power by optimizing the power allocation in radar networks. First, a novel SINR-based network utility function is defined and utilized as a metric to evaluate power allocation. Then, with the well-designed network utility function, the existence and uniqueness of the Nash bargaining solution are proved analytically. Finally, an iterative Nash bargaining algorithm is developed that converges quickly to a Pareto optimal equilibrium for the cooperative game. Numerical simulations and theoretic analysis are provided to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Laser Raman detection for oral cancer based on an adaptive Gaussian process classification method with posterior probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du, Zhanwei; Yang, Yongjian; Bai, Yuan; Wang, Lijun; Su, Le; Chen, Yong; Li, Xianchang; Zhou, Xiaodong; Shen, Aiguo; Hu, Jiming; Jia, Jun

2013-01-01

The existing methods for early and differential diagnosis of oral cancer are limited due to the unapparent early symptoms and the imperfect imaging examination methods. In this paper, the classification models of oral adenocarcinoma, carcinoma tissues and a control group with just four features are established by utilizing the hybrid Gaussian process (HGP) classification algorithm, with the introduction of the mechanisms of noise reduction and posterior probability. HGP shows much better performance in the experimental results. During the experimental process, oral tissues were divided into three groups, adenocarcinoma (n = 87), carcinoma (n = 100) and the control group (n = 134). The spectral data for these groups were collected. The prospective application of the proposed HGP classification method improved the diagnostic sensitivity to 56.35% and the specificity to about 70.00%, and resulted in a Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.36. It is proved that the utilization of HGP in LRS detection analysis for the diagnosis of oral cancer gives accurate results. The prospect of application is also satisfactory. (paper)

Laser Raman detection for oral cancer based on an adaptive Gaussian process classification method with posterior probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Zhanwei; Yang, Yongjian; Bai, Yuan; Wang, Lijun; Su, Le; Chen, Yong; Li, Xianchang; Zhou, Xiaodong; Jia, Jun; Shen, Aiguo; Hu, Jiming

2013-03-01

The existing methods for early and differential diagnosis of oral cancer are limited due to the unapparent early symptoms and the imperfect imaging examination methods. In this paper, the classification models of oral adenocarcinoma, carcinoma tissues and a control group with just four features are established by utilizing the hybrid Gaussian process (HGP) classification algorithm, with the introduction of the mechanisms of noise reduction and posterior probability. HGP shows much better performance in the experimental results. During the experimental process, oral tissues were divided into three groups, adenocarcinoma (n = 87), carcinoma (n = 100) and the control group (n = 134). The spectral data for these groups were collected. The prospective application of the proposed HGP classification method improved the diagnostic sensitivity to 56.35% and the specificity to about 70.00%, and resulted in a Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.36. It is proved that the utilization of HGP in LRS detection analysis for the diagnosis of oral cancer gives accurate results. The prospect of application is also satisfactory.

Accounting Fraud: an estimation of detection probability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Artur Filipe Ewald Wuerges

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Financial statement fraud (FSF is costly for investors and can damage the credibility of the audit profession. To prevent and detect fraud, it is helpful to know its causes. The binary choice models (e.g. logit and probit commonly used in the extant literature, however, fail to account for undetected cases of fraud and thus present unreliable hypotheses tests. Using a sample of 118 companies accused of fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC, we estimated a logit model that corrects the problems arising from undetected frauds in U.S. companies. To avoid multicollinearity problems, we extracted seven factors from 28 variables using the principal factors method. Our results indicate that only 1.43 percent of the instances of FSF were publicized by the SEC. Of the six significant variables included in the traditional, uncorrected logit model, three were found to be actually non-significant in the corrected model. The likelihood of FSF is 5.12 times higher when the firm’s auditor issues an adverse or qualified report.

Janus-faced probability

CERN Document Server

Rocchi, Paolo

2014-01-01

The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

Probability Distributome: A Web Computational Infrastructure for Exploring the Properties, Interrelations, and Applications of Probability Distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Dinov, Ivo D; Siegrist, Kyle; Pearl, Dennis K; Kalinin, Alexandr; Christou, Nicolas

2016-06-01

Probability distributions are useful for modeling, simulation, analysis, and inference on varieties of natural processes and physical phenomena. There are uncountably many probability distributions. However, a few dozen families of distributions are commonly defined and are frequently used in practice for problem solving, experimental applications, and theoretical studies. In this paper, we present a new computational and graphical infrastructure, the Distributome , which facilitates the discovery, exploration and application of diverse spectra of probability distributions. The extensible Distributome infrastructure provides interfaces for (human and machine) traversal, search, and navigation of all common probability distributions. It also enables distribution modeling, applications, investigation of inter-distribution relations, as well as their analytical representations and computational utilization. The entire Distributome framework is designed and implemented as an open-source, community-built, and Internet-accessible infrastructure. It is portable, extensible and compatible with HTML5 and Web2.0 standards (http://Distributome.org). We demonstrate two types of applications of the probability Distributome resources: computational research and science education. The Distributome tools may be employed to address five complementary computational modeling applications (simulation, data-analysis and inference, model-fitting, examination of the analytical, mathematical and computational properties of specific probability distributions, and exploration of the inter-distributional relations). Many high school and college science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses may be enriched by the use of modern pedagogical approaches and technology-enhanced methods. The Distributome resources provide enhancements for blended STEM education by improving student motivation, augmenting the classical curriculum with interactive webapps, and overhauling the

High prevalence of rheumatic heart disease detected by echocardiography in school children.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhaya, Maneesha; Panwar, Sadik; Beniwal, Rajesh; Panwar, Raja Babu

2010-04-01

It is fairly easy to detect advanced valve lesions of established rheumatic heart disease by echocardiography in the clinically identified cases of rheumatic heart disease. However, to diagnose a subclinical case of rheumatic heart disease, no uniform set of echocardiographic criteria exist. Moderate thickening of valve leaflets is considered an indicator of established rheumatic heart disease. World Health Organization criteria for diagnosing probable rheumatic heart disease are more sensitive and are based on the detection of significant regurgitation of mitral and/or aortic valves by color Doppler. We attempted diagnosing RHD in school children in Bikaner city by cardiac ultrasound. The stratified cluster sampling technique was employed to identify 31 random clusters in the coeducational schools of Bikaner city. We selected 1059 school children aged 6-15 years from these schools. An experienced operator did careful cardiac auscultation and echocardiographic study. A second expert confirmed the echocardiographic findings. The prevalence of lesions suggestive of rheumatic heart disease by echocardiography was 51 per 1,000 (denominator = 1059; 95% CI: 38-64 per 1,000). We were able to clinically diagnose RHD in one child. None of these children or their parents having echocardiographic evidence of RHD could provide a positive history of acute rheumatic fever. By echocardiographic screening, we found a high prevalence of rheumatic heart disease in the surveyed population. Clinical auscultation had much lower diagnostic efficacy.

Assessment of local variability by high-throughput e-beam metrology for prediction of patterning defect probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Fuming; Hunsche, Stefan; Anunciado, Roy; Corradi, Antonio; Tien, Hung Yu; Tang, Peng; Wei, Junwei; Wang, Yongjun; Fang, Wei; Wong, Patrick; van Oosten, Anton; van Ingen Schenau, Koen; Slachter, Bram

2018-03-01

We present an experimental study of pattern variability and defectivity, based on a large data set with more than 112 million SEM measurements from an HMI high-throughput e-beam tool. The test case is a 10nm node SRAM via array patterned with a DUV immersion LELE process, where we see a variation in mean size and litho sensitivities between different unique via patterns that leads to a seemingly qualitative differences in defectivity. The large available data volume enables further analysis to reliably distinguish global and local CDU variations, including a breakdown into local systematics and stochastics. A closer inspection of the tail end of the distributions and estimation of defect probabilities concludes that there is a common defect mechanism and defect threshold despite the observed differences of specific pattern characteristics. We expect that the analysis methodology can be applied for defect probability modeling as well as general process qualification in the future.

Sensitive and transportable gadolinium-core plastic scintillator sphere for neutron detection and counting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dumazert, Jonathan; Coulon, Romain; Carrel, Frédérick; Corre, Gwenolé; Normand, Stéphane [CEA, LIST, Laboratoire Capteurs Architectures Electroniques, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Méchin, Laurence [CNRS, UCBN, Groupe de Recherche en Informatique, Image, Automatique et Instrumentation de Caen, 14050 Caen (France); Hamel, Matthieu [CEA, LIST, Laboratoire Capteurs Architectures Electroniques, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

2016-08-21

Neutron detection forms a critical branch of nuclear-related issues, currently driven by the search for competitive alternative technologies to neutron counters based on the helium-3 isotope. The deployment of plastic scintillators shows a high potential for efficient detectors, safer and more reliable than liquids, more easily scalable and cost-effective than inorganic. In the meantime, natural gadolinium, through its 155 and mostly 157 isotopes, presents an exceptionally high interaction probability with thermal neutrons. This paper introduces a dual system including a metal gadolinium core inserted at the center of a high-scale plastic scintillator sphere. Incident fast neutrons are thermalized by the scintillator shell and then may be captured with a significant probability by gadolinium 155 and 157 nuclei in the core. The deposition of a sufficient fraction of the capture high-energy prompt gamma signature inside the scintillator shell will then allow discrimination from background radiations by energy threshold, and therefore neutron detection. The scaling of the system with the Monte Carlo MCNPX2.7 code was carried out according to a tradeoff between the moderation of incident fast neutrons and the probability of slow neutron capture by a moderate-cost metal gadolinium core. Based on the parameters extracted from simulation, a first laboratory prototype for the assessment of the detection method principle has been synthetized. The robustness and sensitivity of the neutron detection principle are then assessed by counting measurement experiments. Experimental results confirm the potential for a stable, highly sensitive, transportable and cost-efficient neutron detector and orientate future investigation toward promising axes.

Sensitive and transportable gadolinium-core plastic scintillator sphere for neutron detection and counting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumazert, Jonathan; Coulon, Romain; Carrel, Frédérick; Corre, Gwenolé; Normand, Stéphane; Méchin, Laurence; Hamel, Matthieu

2016-01-01

Neutron detection forms a critical branch of nuclear-related issues, currently driven by the search for competitive alternative technologies to neutron counters based on the helium-3 isotope. The deployment of plastic scintillators shows a high potential for efficient detectors, safer and more reliable than liquids, more easily scalable and cost-effective than inorganic. In the meantime, natural gadolinium, through its 155 and mostly 157 isotopes, presents an exceptionally high interaction probability with thermal neutrons. This paper introduces a dual system including a metal gadolinium core inserted at the center of a high-scale plastic scintillator sphere. Incident fast neutrons are thermalized by the scintillator shell and then may be captured with a significant probability by gadolinium 155 and 157 nuclei in the core. The deposition of a sufficient fraction of the capture high-energy prompt gamma signature inside the scintillator shell will then allow discrimination from background radiations by energy threshold, and therefore neutron detection. The scaling of the system with the Monte Carlo MCNPX2.7 code was carried out according to a tradeoff between the moderation of incident fast neutrons and the probability of slow neutron capture by a moderate-cost metal gadolinium core. Based on the parameters extracted from simulation, a first laboratory prototype for the assessment of the detection method principle has been synthetized. The robustness and sensitivity of the neutron detection principle are then assessed by counting measurement experiments. Experimental results confirm the potential for a stable, highly sensitive, transportable and cost-efficient neutron detector and orientate future investigation toward promising axes.

Ruin probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

Science.gov (United States)

Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M; Edwards, Thomas C; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M

2014-12-01

Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate ( r ) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density ( N ) relate to occurrence probability ( P occ ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, Western US, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with P occ , while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with P occ . Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

Interpretations of probability

CERN Document Server

Khrennikov, Andrei

2009-01-01

This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

Closed Form Aliasing Probability For Q-ary Symmetric Errors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Geetani Edirisooriya

1996-01-01

Full Text Available In Built-In Self-Test (BIST techniques, test data reduction can be achieved using Linear Feedback Shift Registers (LFSRs. A faulty circuit may escape detection due to loss of information inherent to data compaction schemes. This is referred to as aliasing. The probability of aliasing in Multiple-Input Shift-Registers (MISRs has been studied under various bit error models. By modeling the signature analyzer as a Markov process we show that the closed form expression derived for aliasing probability previously, for MISRs with primitive polynomials under q-ary symmetric error model holds for all MISRs irrespective of their feedback polynomials and for group cellular automata signature analyzers as well. If the erroneous behaviour of a circuit can be modelled with q-ary symmetric errors, then the test circuit complexity and propagation delay associated with the signature analyzer can be minimized by using a set of m single bit LFSRs without increasing the probability of aliasing.

Probability shapes perceptual precision: A study in orientation estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jabar, Syaheed B; Anderson, Britt

2015-12-01

Probability is known to affect perceptual estimations, but an understanding of mechanisms is lacking. Moving beyond binary classification tasks, we had naive participants report the orientation of briefly viewed gratings where we systematically manipulated contingent probability. Participants rapidly developed faster and more precise estimations for high-probability tilts. The shapes of their error distributions, as indexed by a kurtosis measure, also showed a distortion from Gaussian. This kurtosis metric was robust, capturing probability effects that were graded, contextual, and varying as a function of stimulus orientation. Our data can be understood as a probability-induced reduction in the variability or "shape" of estimation errors, as would be expected if probability affects the perceptual representations. As probability manipulations are an implicit component of many endogenous cuing paradigms, changes at the perceptual level could account for changes in performance that might have traditionally been ascribed to "attention." (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Cerebral gray matter volume losses in essential tremor: A case-control study using high resolution tissue probability maps.

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Eric; Dyke, Jonathan P; Hernandez, Nora; Louis, Elan D; Dydak, Ulrike

2018-03-10

Essential tremor (ET) is increasingly recognized as a multi-dimensional disorder with both motor and non-motor features. For this reason, imaging studies are more broadly examining regions outside the cerebellar motor loop. Reliable detection of cerebral gray matter (GM) atrophy requires optimized processing, adapted to high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). We investigated cerebral GM volume loss in ET cases using automated segmentation of MRI T1-weighted images. MRI was acquired on 47 ET cases and 36 controls. Automated segmentation and voxel-wise comparisons of volume were performed using Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) software. To improve upon standard protocols, the high-resolution International Consortium for Brain Mapping (ICBM) 2009a atlas and tissue probability maps were used to process each subject image. Group comparisons were performed: all ET vs. Controls, ET with head tremor (ETH) vs. Controls, and severe ET vs. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed between ET with and without head tremor and controls. Age, sex, and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) score were regressed out from each comparison. We were able to consistently identify regions of cerebral GM volume loss in ET and in ET subgroups in the posterior insula, superior temporal gyri, cingulate cortex, inferior frontal gyri and other occipital and parietal regions. There were no significant increases in GM volume in ET in any comparisons with controls. This study, which uses improved methodologies, provides evidence that GM volume loss in ET is present beyond the cerebellum, and in fact, is widespread throughout the cerebrum as well. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computing exact bundle compliance control charts via probability generating functions.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Binchao; Matis, Timothy; Benneyan, James

2016-06-01

Compliance to evidenced-base practices, individually and in 'bundles', remains an important focus of healthcare quality improvement for many clinical conditions. The exact probability distribution of composite bundle compliance measures used to develop corresponding control charts and other statistical tests is based on a fairly large convolution whose direct calculation can be computationally prohibitive. Various series expansions and other approximation approaches have been proposed, each with computational and accuracy tradeoffs, especially in the tails. This same probability distribution also arises in other important healthcare applications, such as for risk-adjusted outcomes and bed demand prediction, with the same computational difficulties. As an alternative, we use probability generating functions to rapidly obtain exact results and illustrate the improved accuracy and detection over other methods. Numerical testing across a wide range of applications demonstrates the computational efficiency and accuracy of this approach.

Individual tree detection based on densities of high points of high resolution airborne lidar

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Abd Rahman, M.Z.; Gorte, B.G.H.

2008-01-01

The retrieval of individual tree location from Airborne LiDAR has focused largely on utilizing canopy height. However, high resolution Airborne LiDAR offers another source of information for tree detection. This paper presents a new method for tree detection based on high points’ densities from a

Trial type probability modulates the cost of antisaccades

Science.gov (United States)

Chiau, Hui-Yan; Tseng, Philip; Su, Jia-Han; Tzeng, Ovid J. L.; Hung, Daisy L.; Muggleton, Neil G.

2011-01-01

The antisaccade task, where eye movements are made away from a target, has been used to investigate the flexibility of cognitive control of behavior. Antisaccades usually have longer saccade latencies than prosaccades, the so-called antisaccade cost. Recent studies have shown that this antisaccade cost can be modulated by event probability. This may mean that the antisaccade cost can be reduced, or even reversed, if the probability of surrounding events favors the execution of antisaccades. The probabilities of prosaccades and antisaccades were systematically manipulated by changing the proportion of a certain type of trial in an interleaved pro/antisaccades task. We aimed to disentangle the intertwined relationship between trial type probabilities and the antisaccade cost with the ultimate goal of elucidating how probabilities of trial types modulate human flexible behaviors, as well as the characteristics of such modulation effects. To this end, we examined whether implicit trial type probability can influence saccade latencies and also manipulated the difficulty of cue discriminability to see how effects of trial type probability would change when the demand on visual perceptual analysis was high or low. A mixed-effects model was applied to the analysis to dissect the factors contributing to the modulation effects of trial type probabilities. Our results suggest that the trial type probability is one robust determinant of antisaccade cost. These findings highlight the importance of implicit probability in the flexibility of cognitive control of behavior. PMID:21543748

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition. When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025). Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing.

Heart sounds analysis using probability assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Plesinger, F; Viscor, I; Halamek, J; Jurco, J; Jurak, P

2017-07-31

This paper describes a method for automated discrimination of heart sounds recordings according to the Physionet Challenge 2016. The goal was to decide if the recording refers to normal or abnormal heart sounds or if it is not possible to decide (i.e. 'unsure' recordings). Heart sounds S1 and S2 are detected using amplitude envelopes in the band 15-90 Hz. The averaged shape of the S1/S2 pair is computed from amplitude envelopes in five different bands (15-90 Hz; 55-150 Hz; 100-250 Hz; 200-450 Hz; 400-800 Hz). A total of 53 features are extracted from the data. The largest group of features is extracted from the statistical properties of the averaged shapes; other features are extracted from the symmetry of averaged shapes, and the last group of features is independent of S1 and S2 detection. Generated features are processed using logical rules and probability assessment, a prototype of a new machine-learning method. The method was trained using 3155 records and tested on 1277 hidden records. It resulted in a training score of 0.903 (sensitivity 0.869, specificity 0.937) and a testing score of 0.841 (sensitivity 0.770, specificity 0.913). The revised method led to a test score of 0.853 in the follow-up phase of the challenge. The presented solution achieved 7th place out of 48 competing entries in the Physionet Challenge 2016 (official phase). In addition, the PROBAfind software for probability assessment was introduced.

Steam generator tubes rupture probability estimation - study of the axially cracked tube case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mavko, B.; Cizelj, L.; Roussel, G.

1992-01-01

The objective of the present study is to estimate the probability of a steam generator tube rupture due to the unstable propagation of axial through-wall cracks during a hypothetical accident. For this purpose the probabilistic fracture mechanics model was developed taking into account statistical distributions of influencing parameters. A numerical example considering a typical steam generator seriously affected by axial stress corrosion cracking in the roll transition area, is presented; it indicates the change of rupture probability with different assumptions focusing mostly on tubesheet reinforcing factor, crack propagation rate and crack detection probability. 8 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

OpenAIRE

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Background: Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. Method: We randomized 55 In...

Semantic and associative factors in probability learning with words.

Science.gov (United States)

Schipper, L M; Hanson, B L; Taylor, G; Thorpe, J A

1973-09-01

Using a probability-learning technique with a single word as the cue and with the probability of a given event following this word fixed at .80, it was found (1) that neither high nor low associates to the original word and (2) that neither synonyms nor antonyms showed differential learning curves subsequent to original learning when the probability for the following event was shifted to .20. In a second study when feedback, in the form of knowledge of results, was withheld, there was a clear-cut similarity of predictions to the originally trained word and the synonyms of both high and low association value and a dissimilarity of these words to a set of antonyms of both high and low association value. Two additional studies confirmed the importance of the semantic dimension as compared with association value as traditionally measured.

Detection of water-quality contamination events based on multi-sensor fusion using an extented Dempster–Shafer method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hou, Dibo; He, Huimei; Huang, Pingjie; Zhang, Guangxin; Loaiciga, Hugo

2013-01-01

This study presents a method for detecting contamination events of sources of drinking water based on the Dempster–Shafer (D-S) evidence theory. The detection method has the purpose of protecting water supply systems against accidental and intentional contamination events. This purpose is achieved by first predicting future water-quality parameters using an autoregressive (AR) model. The AR model predicts future water-quality parameters using recent measurements of these parameters made with automated (on-line) water-quality sensors. Next, a probabilistic method assigns probabilities to the time series of residuals formed by comparing predicted water-quality parameters with threshold values. Finally, the D-S fusion method searches for anomalous probabilities of the residuals and uses the result of that search to determine whether the current water quality is normal (that is, free of pollution) or contaminated. The D-S fusion method is extended and improved in this paper by weighted averaging of water-contamination evidence and by the analysis of the persistence of anomalous probabilities of water-quality parameters. The extended D-S fusion method makes determinations that have a high probability of being correct concerning whether or not a source of drinking water has been contaminated. This paper's method for detecting water-contamination events was tested with water-quality time series from automated (on-line) water quality sensors. In addition, a small-scale, experimental, water-pipe network was tested to detect water-contamination events. The two tests demonstrated that the extended D-S fusion method achieves a low false alarm rate and high probabilities of detecting water contamination events. (paper)

Detecting cracks in aircraft engine fan blades using vibrothermography nondestructive evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Chunwang; Meeker, William Q.; Mayton, Donna

2014-01-01

Inspection is an important part of many maintenance processes, especially for safety-critical system components. This work was motivated by the need to develop more effective methods to detect cracks in rotating components of aircraft engines. This paper describes the analysis of data from vibrothermography inspections on aircraft engine turbine blades. Separate but similar analysis were done for two different purposes. In both analyses, we fit statistical models with random effects to describe the crack-to-crack variability and the effect that the experimental variables have on the responses. In the first analysis, the purpose of the study was to find vibrothermography equipment settings that will provide good crack detection capability over the population of similar cracks in the particular kind of aircraft engine turbine blades that were inspected. Then, the fitted model was used to determine the test conditions where the probability of detection (POD) is expected to be high and probability of alarm is expected to be low. In our second analysis, crack size information was added and a similar model was fit. This model provides an estimate of POD as a function of crack size for specified test conditions. This function is needed as an input to models for planning in-service inspection intervals. - Highlights: • Developed experimental design methods to optimize the inspection parameters for a vibrothermography inspection system. • Used mixed effects modeling to describe crack-to-crack variability. • Fit an extended model to provide estimates of the probability of detection as a function of crack length. • Investigated the coverage probability of confidence intervals for probability of detection

Investigation of photon detection probability dependence of SPADnet-I digital photon counter as a function of angle of incidence, wavelength and polarization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Játékos, Balázs, E-mail: jatekosb@eik.bme.hu; Ujhelyi, Ferenc; Lőrincz, Emőke; Erdei, Gábor

2015-01-01

SPADnet-I is a prototype, fully digital, high spatial and temporal resolution silicon photon counter, based on standard CMOS imaging technology, developed by the SPADnet consortium. Being a novel device, the exact dependence of photon detection probability (PDP) of SPADnet-I was not known as a function of angle of incidence, wavelength and polarization of the incident light. Our targeted application area of this sensor is next generation PET detector modules, where they will be used along with LYSO:Ce scintillators. Hence, we performed an extended investigation of PDP in a wide range of angle of incidence (0° to 80°), concentrating onto a 60 nm broad wavelength interval around the characteristic emission peak (λ=420 nm) of the scintillator. In the case where the sensor was optically coupled to a scintillator, our experiments showed a notable dependence of PDP on angle, polarization and wavelength. The sensor has an average PDP of approximately 30% from 0° to 60° angle of incidence, where it starts to drop rapidly. The PDP turned out not to be polarization dependent below 30°. If the sensor is used without a scintillator (i.e. the light source is in air), the polarization dependence is much less expressed, it begins only from 50°.

Mapping probabilities of extreme continental water storage changes from space gravimetry

Science.gov (United States)

Kusche, J.; Eicker, A.; Forootan, E.; Springer, A.; Longuevergne, L.

2016-12-01

Using data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, we derive statistically robust 'hotspot' regions of high probability of peak anomalous - i.e. with respect to the seasonal cycle - water storage (of up to 0.7 m one-in-five-year return level) and flux (up to 0.14 m/mon). Analysis of, and comparison with, up to 32 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis fields reveals generally good agreement of these hotspot regions to GRACE results, and that most exceptions are located in the Tropics. However, a simulation experiment reveals that differences observed by GRACE are statistically significant, and further error analysis suggests that by around the year 2020 it will be possible to detect temporal changes in the frequency of extreme total fluxes (i.e. combined effects of mainly precipitation and floods) for at least 10-20% of the continental area, assuming that we have a continuation of GRACE by its follow-up GRACE-FO. J. Kusche et al. (2016): Mapping probabilities of extreme continental water storage changes from space gravimetry, Geophysical Research Letters, accepted online, doi:10.1002/2016GL069538

Addendum to ‘Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities’

Science.gov (United States)

Galarraga, Ibon; Sainz de Murieta, Elisa; Markandya, Anil; María Abadie, Luis

2018-02-01

This addendum adds to the analysis presented in ‘Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities’ Abadie et al (2017 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 014017). We propose to use the framework developed earlier to enhance communication and understanding of risks, with the aim of bridging the gap between highly technical risk management discussion to the public risk aversion debate. We also propose that the framework could be used for stress-testing resilience.

Interrelationships Between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, Binomial, Logit, and Bayes' Rule Probability of Detection Methodologies

Science.gov (United States)

Generazio, Edward R.

2014-01-01

Unknown risks are introduced into failure critical systems when probability of detection (POD) capabilities are accepted without a complete understanding of the statistical method applied and the interpretation of the statistical results. The presence of this risk in the nondestructive evaluation (NDE) community is revealed in common statements about POD. These statements are often interpreted in a variety of ways and therefore, the very existence of the statements identifies the need for a more comprehensive understanding of POD methodologies. Statistical methodologies have data requirements to be met, procedures to be followed, and requirements for validation or demonstration of adequacy of the POD estimates. Risks are further enhanced due to the wide range of statistical methodologies used for determining the POD capability. Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' rule POD methodologies are widely used in determining POD capability. This work focuses on Hit-Miss data to reveal the framework of the interrelationships between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' Rule methodologies as they are applied to POD. Knowledge of these interrelationships leads to an intuitive and global understanding of the statistical data, procedural and validation requirements for establishing credible POD estimates.

A general formula for computing maximum proportion correct scores in various psychophysical paradigms with arbitrary probability distributions of stimulus observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Huanping; Micheyl, Christophe

2015-05-01

Proportion correct (Pc) is a fundamental measure of task performance in psychophysics. The maximum Pc score that can be achieved by an optimal (maximum-likelihood) observer in a given task is of both theoretical and practical importance, because it sets an upper limit on human performance. Within the framework of signal detection theory, analytical solutions for computing the maximum Pc score have been established for several common experimental paradigms under the assumption of Gaussian additive internal noise. However, as the scope of applications of psychophysical signal detection theory expands, the need is growing for psychophysicists to compute maximum Pc scores for situations involving non-Gaussian (internal or stimulus-induced) noise. In this article, we provide a general formula for computing the maximum Pc in various psychophysical experimental paradigms for arbitrary probability distributions of sensory activity. Moreover, easy-to-use MATLAB code implementing the formula is provided. Practical applications of the formula are illustrated, and its accuracy is evaluated, for two paradigms and two types of probability distributions (uniform and Gaussian). The results demonstrate that Pc scores computed using the formula remain accurate even for continuous probability distributions, as long as the conversion from continuous probability density functions to discrete probability mass functions is supported by a sufficiently high sampling resolution. We hope that the exposition in this article, and the freely available MATLAB code, facilitates calculations of maximum performance for a wider range of experimental situations, as well as explorations of the impact of different assumptions concerning internal-noise distributions on maximum performance in psychophysical experiments.

Landslide detection using very high-resolution satellite imageries

Science.gov (United States)

Suga, Yuzo; Konishi, Tomohisa

2012-10-01

The heavy rain induced by the 12th typhoon caused landslide disaster at Kii Peninsula in the middle part of Japan. We propose a quick response method for landslide disaster mapping using very high resolution (VHR) satellite imageries. Especially, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is effective because it has the capability of all weather and day/night observation. In this study, multi-temporal COSMO-SkyMed imageries were used to detect the landslide areas. It was difficult to detect the landslide areas using only backscatter change pattern derived from pre- and post-disaster COSMOSkyMed imageries. Thus, the authors adopted a correlation analysis which the moving window was selected for the correlation coefficient calculation. Low value of the correlation coefficient reflects land cover change between pre- and post-disaster imageries. This analysis is effective for the detection of landslides using SAR data. The detected landslide areas were compared with the area detected by EROS-B high resolution optical image. In addition, we have developed 3D viewing system for geospatial visualizing of the damaged area using these satellite image data with digital elevation model. The 3D viewing system has the performance of geographic measurement with respect to elevation height, area and volume calculation, and cross section drawing including landscape viewing and image layer construction using a mobile personal computer with interactive operation. As the result, it was verified that a quick response for the detection of landslide disaster at the initial stage could be effectively performed using optical and SAR very high resolution satellite data by means of 3D viewing system.

The optimal number of surveys when detectability varies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alana L Moore

Full Text Available The survey of plant and animal populations is central to undertaking field ecology. However, detection is imperfect, so the absence of a species cannot be determined with certainty. Methods developed to account for imperfect detectability during surveys do not yet account for stochastic variation in detectability over time or space. When each survey entails a fixed cost that is not spent searching (e.g., time required to travel to the site, stochastic detection rates result in a trade-off between the number of surveys and the length of each survey when surveying a single site. We present a model that addresses this trade-off and use it to determine the number of surveys that: 1 maximizes the expected probability of detection over the entire survey period; and 2 is most likely to achieve a minimally-acceptable probability of detection. We illustrate the applicability of our approach using three practical examples (minimum survey effort protocols, number of frog surveys per season, and number of quadrats per site to detect a plant species and test our model's predictions using data from experimental plant surveys. We find that when maximizing the expected probability of detection, the optimal survey design is most sensitive to the coefficient of variation in the rate of detection and the ratio of the search budget to the travel cost. When maximizing the likelihood of achieving a particular probability of detection, the optimal survey design is most sensitive to the required probability of detection, the expected number of detections if the budget were spent only on searching, and the expected number of detections that are missed due to travel costs. We find that accounting for stochasticity in detection rates is likely to be particularly important for designing surveys when detection rates are low. Our model provides a framework to do this.

Calculating the Probability of Returning a Loan with Binary Probability Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julian Vasilev

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to give a new approach in calculating the probability of returning a loan. A lot of factors affect the value of the probability. In this article by using statistical and econometric models some influencing factors are proved. The main approach is concerned with applying probit and logit models in loan management institutions. A new aspect of the credit risk analysis is given. Calculating the probability of returning a loan is a difficult task. We assume that specific data fields concerning the contract (month of signing, year of signing, given sum and data fields concerning the borrower of the loan (month of birth, year of birth (age, gender, region, where he/she lives may be independent variables in a binary logistics model with a dependent variable “the probability of returning a loan”. It is proved that the month of signing a contract, the year of signing a contract, the gender and the age of the loan owner do not affect the probability of returning a loan. It is proved that the probability of returning a loan depends on the sum of contract, the remoteness of the loan owner and the month of birth. The probability of returning a loan increases with the increase of the given sum, decreases with the proximity of the customer, increases for people born in the beginning of the year and decreases for people born at the end of the year.

A Study of Probability Models in Monitoring Environmental Pollution in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. E. Oguntunde

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In Lagos State, Nigeria, pollutant emissions were monitored across the state to detect any significant change which may cause harm to human health and the environment at large. In this research, three theoretical distributions, Weibull, lognormal, and gamma distributions, were examined on the carbon monoxide observations to determine the best fit. The characteristics of the pollutant observation were established and the probabilities of exceeding the Lagos State Environmental Protection Agency (LASEPA and the Federal Environmental Protection Agency (FEPA acceptable limits have been successfully predicted. Increase in the use of vehicles and increase in the establishment of industries have been found not to contribute significantly to the high level of carbon monoxide concentration in Lagos State for the period studied.

Developing a probability-based model of aquifer vulnerability in an agricultural region

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shih-Kai; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Peng, Yi-Huei

2013-04-01

SummaryHydrogeological settings of aquifers strongly influence the regional groundwater movement and pollution processes. Establishing a map of aquifer vulnerability is considerably critical for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a novel probability-based DRASTIC model of aquifer vulnerability in the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan, using indicator kriging and to determine various risk categories of contamination potentials based on estimated vulnerability indexes. Categories and ratings of six parameters in the probability-based DRASTIC model were probabilistically characterized according to the parameter classification methods of selecting a maximum estimation probability and calculating an expected value. Moreover, the probability-based estimation and assessment gave us an excellent insight into propagating the uncertainty of parameters due to limited observation data. To examine the prediction capacity of pollutants for the developed probability-based DRASTIC model, medium, high, and very high risk categories of contamination potentials were compared with observed nitrate-N exceeding 0.5 mg/L indicating the anthropogenic groundwater pollution. The analyzed results reveal that the developed probability-based DRASTIC model is capable of predicting high nitrate-N groundwater pollution and characterizing the parameter uncertainty via the probability estimation processes.

On the Possibility of Assigning Probabilities to Singular Cases, or: Probability Is Subjective Too!

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark R. Crovelli

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Both Ludwig von Mises and Richard von Mises claimed that numerical probability could not be legitimately applied to singular cases. This paper challenges this aspect of the von Mises brothers’ theory of probability. It is argued that their denial that numerical probability could be applied to singular cases was based solely upon Richard von Mises’ exceptionally restrictive definition of probability. This paper challenges Richard von Mises’ definition of probability by arguing that the definition of probability necessarily depends upon whether the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is argued that if the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws, a subjective definition of probability must be adopted. It is further argued that both the nature of human action and the relative frequency method for calculating numerical probabilities both presuppose that the world is indeed governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is finally argued that the subjective definition of probability undercuts the von Mises claim that numerical probability cannot legitimately be applied to singular, non-replicable cases.

Influence of call broadcast timing within point counts and survey duration on detection probability of marsh breeding birds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Douglas C. Tozer

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The Standardized North American Marsh Bird Monitoring Protocol recommends point counts consisting of a 5-min passive observation period, meant to be free of broadcast bias, followed by call broadcasts to entice elusive species to reveal their presence. Prior to this protocol, some monitoring programs used point counts with broadcasts during the first 5 min of 10-min counts, and have since used 15-min counts with an initial 5-min passive period (P1 followed by 5 min of broadcasts (B and a second 5-min passive period (P2 to ensure consistency across years and programs. Influence of timing of broadcasts within point counts and point count duration, however, have rarely been assessed. Using data from 23,973 broadcast-assisted 15-min point counts conducted throughout the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region between 2008 and 2016 by Bird Studies Canada's Marsh Monitoring Program and Central Michigan University's Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Monitoring Program, we estimated detection probabilities of individuals for 14 marsh breeding bird species during P1B compared to BP2, P1 compared to P2, and P1B compared to P1BP2. For six broadcast species and American Bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus, we found no significant difference in detection during P1B compared to BP2, and no significant difference in four of the same seven species during P1 compared to P2. We observed small but significant differences in detection for 7 of 14 species during P1B compared to P1BP2. We conclude that differences in timing of broadcasts causes no bias based on counts from entire 10-minute surveys, although P1B should be favored over BP2 because the same amount of effort in P1B avoids broadcast bias in all broadcast species, and 10-min surveys are superior to 15-min surveys because modest gains in detection of some species does not warrant the additional effort. We recommend point counts consisting of 5 min of passive observation followed by broadcasts, consistent with the standardized

Skin damage probabilities using fixation materials in high-energy photon beams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carl, J.; Vestergaard, A.

2000-01-01

Patient fixation, such as thermoplastic masks, carbon-fibre support plates and polystyrene bead vacuum cradles, is used to reproduce patient positioning in radiotherapy. Consequently low-density materials may be introduced in high-energy photon beams. The aim of the this study was to measure the increase in skin dose when low-density materials are present and calculate the radiobiological consequences in terms of probabilities of early and late skin damage. An experimental thin-windowed plane-parallel ion chamber was used. Skin doses were measured using various overlaying low-density fixation materials. A fixed geometry of a 10 x 10 cm field, a SSD = 100 cm and photon energies of 4, 6 and 10 MV on Varian Clinac 2100C accelerators were used for all measurements. Radiobiological consequences of introducing these materials into the high-energy photon beams were evaluated in terms of early and late damage of the skin based on the measured surface doses and the LQ-model. The experimental ion chamber save results consistent with other studies. A relationship between skin dose and material thickness in mg/cm 2 was established and used to calculate skin doses in scenarios assuming radiotherapy treatment with opposed fields. Conventional radiotherapy may apply mid-point doses up to 60-66 Gy in daily 2-Gy fractions opposed fields. Using thermoplastic fixation and high-energy photons as low as 4 MV do increase the dose to the skin considerably. However, using thermoplastic materials with thickness less than 100 mg/cm 2 skin doses are comparable with those produced by variation in source to skin distance, field size or blocking trays within clinical treatment set-ups. The use of polystyrene cradles and carbon-fibre materials with thickness less than 100 mg/cm 2 should be avoided at 4 MV at doses above 54-60 Gy. (author)

Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

Science.gov (United States)

Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M.

2014-01-01

Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions.The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density (N ) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, western USA, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments.Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

Using exceedance probabilities to detect anomalies in routinely recorded animal health data, with particular reference to foot-and-mouth disease in Viet Nam.

Science.gov (United States)

Richards, K K; Hazelton, M L; Stevenson, M A; Lockhart, C Y; Pinto, J; Nguyen, L

2014-10-01

The widespread availability of computer hardware and software for recording and storing disease event information means that, in theory, we have the necessary information to carry out detailed analyses of factors influencing the spatial distribution of disease in animal populations. However, the reliability of such analyses depends on data quality, with anomalous records having the potential to introduce significant bias and lead to inappropriate decision making. In this paper we promote the use of exceedance probabilities as a tool for detecting anomalies when applying hierarchical spatio-temporal models to animal health data. We illustrate this methodology through a case study data on outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Viet Nam for the period 2006-2008. A flexible binomial logistic regression was employed to model the number of FMD infected communes within each province of the country. Standard analyses of the residuals from this model failed to identify problems, but exceedance probabilities identified provinces in which the number of reported FMD outbreaks was unexpectedly low. This finding is interesting given that these provinces are on major cattle movement pathways through Viet Nam. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Partitioning detectability components in populations subject to within-season temporary emigration using binomial mixture models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katherine M O'Donnell

Full Text Available Detectability of individual animals is highly variable and nearly always < 1; imperfect detection must be accounted for to reliably estimate population sizes and trends. Hierarchical models can simultaneously estimate abundance and effective detection probability, but there are several different mechanisms that cause variation in detectability. Neglecting temporary emigration can lead to biased population estimates because availability and conditional detection probability are confounded. In this study, we extend previous hierarchical binomial mixture models to account for multiple sources of variation in detectability. The state process of the hierarchical model describes ecological mechanisms that generate spatial and temporal patterns in abundance, while the observation model accounts for the imperfect nature of counting individuals due to temporary emigration and false absences. We illustrate our model's potential advantages, including the allowance of temporary emigration between sampling periods, with a case study of southern red-backed salamanders Plethodon serratus. We fit our model and a standard binomial mixture model to counts of terrestrial salamanders surveyed at 40 sites during 3-5 surveys each spring and fall 2010-2012. Our models generated similar parameter estimates to standard binomial mixture models. Aspect was the best predictor of salamander abundance in our case study; abundance increased as aspect became more northeasterly. Increased time-since-rainfall strongly decreased salamander surface activity (i.e. availability for sampling, while higher amounts of woody cover objects and rocks increased conditional detection probability (i.e. probability of capture, given an animal is exposed to sampling. By explicitly accounting for both components of detectability, we increased congruence between our statistical modeling and our ecological understanding of the system. We stress the importance of choosing survey locations and

Detection of argan oil adulteration with vegetable oils by high-performance liquid chromatography-evaporative light scattering detection.

Science.gov (United States)

Salghi, Rachid; Armbruster, Wolfgang; Schwack, Wolfgang

2014-06-15

Triacylglycerol profiles were selected as indicator of adulteration of argan oils to carry out a rapid screening of samples for the evaluation of authenticity. Triacylglycerols were separated by high-performance liquid chromatography-evaporative light scattering detection. Different peak area ratios were defined to sensitively detect adulteration of argan oil with vegetable oils such as sunflower, soy bean, and olive oil up to the level of 5%. Based on four reference argan oils, mean limits of detection and quantitation were calculated to approximately 0.4% and 1.3%, respectively. Additionally, 19 more argan oil reference samples were analysed by high-performance liquid chromatography-refractive index detection, resulting in highly comparative results. The overall strategy demonstrated a good applicability in practise, and hence a high potential to be transferred to routine laboratories. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probability in physics

CERN Document Server

Hemmo, Meir

2012-01-01

What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krupnick, A.J.; Markandya, A.; Nickell, E.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report

The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krupnick, A J; Markandya, A; Nickell, E

1994-07-01

This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report.

Probability theory for 3-layer remote sensing radiative transfer model: univariate case.

Science.gov (United States)

Ben-David, Avishai; Davidson, Charles E

2012-04-23

A probability model for a 3-layer radiative transfer model (foreground layer, cloud layer, background layer, and an external source at the end of line of sight) has been developed. The 3-layer model is fundamentally important as the primary physical model in passive infrared remote sensing. The probability model is described by the Johnson family of distributions that are used as a fit for theoretically computed moments of the radiative transfer model. From the Johnson family we use the SU distribution that can address a wide range of skewness and kurtosis values (in addition to addressing the first two moments, mean and variance). In the limit, SU can also describe lognormal and normal distributions. With the probability model one can evaluate the potential for detecting a target (vapor cloud layer), the probability of observing thermal contrast, and evaluate performance (receiver operating characteristics curves) in clutter-noise limited scenarios. This is (to our knowledge) the first probability model for the 3-layer remote sensing geometry that treats all parameters as random variables and includes higher-order statistics. © 2012 Optical Society of America

Detectability of Gravitational Waves from High-Redshift Binaries.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosado, Pablo A; Lasky, Paul D; Thrane, Eric; Zhu, Xingjiang; Mandel, Ilya; Sesana, Alberto

2016-03-11

Recent nondetection of gravitational-wave backgrounds from pulsar timing arrays casts further uncertainty on the evolution of supermassive black hole binaries. We study the capabilities of current gravitational-wave observatories to detect individual binaries and demonstrate that, contrary to conventional wisdom, some are, in principle, detectable throughout the Universe. In particular, a binary with rest-frame mass ≳10^{10}M_{⊙} can be detected by current timing arrays at arbitrarily high redshifts. The same claim will apply for less massive binaries with more sensitive future arrays. As a consequence, future searches for nanohertz gravitational waves could be expanded to target evolving high-redshift binaries. We calculate the maximum distance at which binaries can be observed with pulsar timing arrays and other detectors, properly accounting for redshift and using realistic binary waveforms.

Detecting Weak Explosions at Local Distances by Fusing Multiple Geophysical Phenomenologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carmichael, Joshua D. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Nemzek, Robert J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Arrowsmith, Stephen J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sentz, Kari [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2015-03-23

Comprehensive explosion monitoring requires the technical capability to identify certain signatures at low signal strengths. For particularly small, evasively conducted explosions, conventional monitoring methods that use single geophysical phenomenologies may produce marginal or absent detections. To address this challenge, we recorded coincident acoustic, seismic and radio-frequency emissions during the above-ground detonation of ~ 2-12 kg solid charges and assessed how waveform data could be fused to increase explosion-screening capability. Our data provided identifiable explosion signatures that we implemented as template-events in multichannel correlation detectors to search for similar, matching waveforms. We thereby observed that these highly sensitive correlation detectors missed explosive events when applied separately to data streams that were heavily contaminated with noise and signal clutter. By then adding the p-values of these statistics through Fisher’s combined probability test, we correctly identified the explosion signals at thresholds consistent with the false alarm rates of the correlation detectors. This resulting Fisher test thereby provided high-probability detections, zero false alarms, and higher theoretical detection capability. We conclude that inclusion of these fusion methods in routine monitoring operations will likely lower both detection thresholds for small explosions, while reducing false attribution rates.

The research of high voltage switchgear detecting unit

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, Tong; Xie, Wei; Wang, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Jinbo

2017-07-01

In order to understand the status of the high voltage switch in the whole life circle, you must monitor the mechanical and electrical parameters that affect device health. So this paper gives a new high voltage switchgear detecting unit based on ARM technology. It can measure closing-opening mechanical wave, storage motor current wave and contactor temperature to judge the device’s health status. When something goes wrong, it can be on alert and give some advice. The practice showed that it can meet the requirements of circuit breaker mechanical properties temperature online detection.

Nitrogen detected TROSY at high field yields high resolution and sensitivity for protein NMR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takeuchi, Koh; Arthanari, Haribabu; Shimada, Ichio; Wagner, Gerhard

2015-01-01

Detection of 15 N in multidimensional NMR experiments of proteins has sparsely been utilized because of the low gyromagnetic ratio (γ) of nitrogen and the presumed low sensitivity of such experiments. Here we show that selecting the TROSY components of proton-attached 15 N nuclei (TROSY 15 N H ) yields high quality spectra in high field magnets (>600 MHz) by taking advantage of the slow 15 N transverse relaxation and compensating for the inherently low 15 N sensitivity. The 15 N TROSY transverse relaxation rates increase modestly with molecular weight but the TROSY gain in peak heights depends strongly on the magnetic field strength. Theoretical simulations predict that the narrowest line width for the TROSY 15 N H component can be obtained at 900 MHz, but sensitivity reaches its maximum around 1.2 GHz. Based on these considerations, a 15 N-detected 2D 1 H– 15 N TROSY-HSQC ( 15 N-detected TROSY-HSQC) experiment was developed and high-quality 2D spectra were recorded at 800 MHz in 2 h for 1 mM maltose-binding protein at 278 K (τ c  ∼ 40 ns). Unlike for 1 H detected TROSY, deuteration is not mandatory to benefit 15 N detected TROSY due to reduced dipolar broadening, which facilitates studies of proteins that cannot be deuterated, especially in cases where production requires eukaryotic expression systems. The option of recording 15 N TROSY of proteins expressed in H 2 O media also alleviates the problem of incomplete amide proton back exchange, which often hampers the detection of amide groups in the core of large molecular weight proteins that are expressed in D 2 O culture media and cannot be refolded for amide back exchange. These results illustrate the potential of 15 N H -detected TROSY experiments as a means to exploit the high resolution offered by high field magnets near and above 1 GHz

An analytical calculation of neighbourhood order probabilities for high dimensional Poissonian processes and mean field models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tercariol, Cesar Augusto Sangaletti; Kiipper, Felipe de Moura; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

2007-01-01

Consider that the coordinates of N points are randomly generated along the edges of a d-dimensional hypercube (random point problem). The probability P (d,N) m,n that an arbitrary point is the mth nearest neighbour to its own nth nearest neighbour (Cox probabilities) plays an important role in spatial statistics. Also, it has been useful in the description of physical processes in disordered media. Here we propose a simpler derivation of Cox probabilities, where we stress the role played by the system dimensionality d. In the limit d → ∞, the distances between pair of points become independent (random link model) and closed analytical forms for the neighbourhood probabilities are obtained both for the thermodynamic limit and finite-size system. Breaking the distance symmetry constraint drives us to the random map model, for which the Cox probabilities are obtained for two cases: whether a point is its own nearest neighbour or not

High-throughput detection of prostate cancer in histological sections using probabilistic pairwise Markov models.

Science.gov (United States)

Monaco, James P; Tomaszewski, John E; Feldman, Michael D; Hagemann, Ian; Moradi, Mehdi; Mousavi, Parvin; Boag, Alexander; Davidson, Chris; Abolmaesumi, Purang; Madabhushi, Anant

2010-08-01

In this paper we present a high-throughput system for detecting regions of carcinoma of the prostate (CaP) in HSs from radical prostatectomies (RPs) using probabilistic pairwise Markov models (PPMMs), a novel type of Markov random field (MRF). At diagnostic resolution a digitized HS can contain 80Kx70K pixels - far too many for current automated Gleason grading algorithms to process. However, grading can be separated into two distinct steps: (1) detecting cancerous regions and (2) then grading these regions. The detection step does not require diagnostic resolution and can be performed much more quickly. Thus, we introduce a CaP detection system capable of analyzing an entire digitized whole-mount HS (2x1.75cm(2)) in under three minutes (on a desktop computer) while achieving a CaP detection sensitivity and specificity of 0.87 and 0.90, respectively. We obtain this high-throughput by tailoring the system to analyze the HSs at low resolution (8microm per pixel). This motivates the following algorithm: (Step 1) glands are segmented, (Step 2) the segmented glands are classified as malignant or benign, and (Step 3) the malignant glands are consolidated into continuous regions. The classification of individual glands leverages two features: gland size and the tendency for proximate glands to share the same class. The latter feature describes a spatial dependency which we model using a Markov prior. Typically, Markov priors are expressed as the product of potential functions. Unfortunately, potential functions are mathematical abstractions, and constructing priors through their selection becomes an ad hoc procedure, resulting in simplistic models such as the Potts. Addressing this problem, we introduce PPMMs which formulate priors in terms of probability density functions, allowing the creation of more sophisticated models. To demonstrate the efficacy of our CaP detection system and assess the advantages of using a PPMM prior instead of the Potts, we alternately

WRHT: A Hybrid Technique for Detection of Wormhole Attack in Wireless Sensor Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rupinder Singh

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Wormhole attack is a challenging security threat to wireless sensor networks which results in disrupting most of the routing protocols as this attack can be triggered in different modes. In this paper, WRHT, a wormhole resistant hybrid technique, is proposed, which can detect the presence of wormhole attack in a more optimistic manner than earlier techniques. WRHT is based on the concept of watchdog and Delphi schemes and ensures that the wormhole will not be left untreated in the sensor network. WRHT makes use of the dual wormhole detection mechanism of calculating probability factor time delay probability and packet loss probability of the established path in order to find the value of wormhole presence probability. The nodes in the path are given different ranking and subsequently colors according to their behavior. The most striking feature of WRHT consists of its capacity to defend against almost all categories of wormhole attacks without depending on any required additional hardware such as global positioning system, timing information or synchronized clocks, and traditional cryptographic schemes demanding high computational needs. The experimental results clearly indicate that the proposed technique has significant improvement over the existing wormhole attack detection techniques.

Camera-Model Identification Using Markovian Transition Probability Matrix

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Guanshuo; Gao, Shang; Shi, Yun Qing; Hu, Ruimin; Su, Wei

Detecting the (brands and) models of digital cameras from given digital images has become a popular research topic in the field of digital forensics. As most of images are JPEG compressed before they are output from cameras, we propose to use an effective image statistical model to characterize the difference JPEG 2-D arrays of Y and Cb components from the JPEG images taken by various camera models. Specifically, the transition probability matrices derived from four different directional Markov processes applied to the image difference JPEG 2-D arrays are used to identify statistical difference caused by image formation pipelines inside different camera models. All elements of the transition probability matrices, after a thresholding technique, are directly used as features for classification purpose. Multi-class support vector machines (SVM) are used as the classification tool. The effectiveness of our proposed statistical model is demonstrated by large-scale experimental results.

Philosophical theories of probability

CERN Document Server

Gillies, Donald

2000-01-01

The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

Conditional probability of intense rainfall producing high ground concentrations from radioactive plumes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wayland, J.R.

1977-03-01

The overlap of the expanding plume of radioactive material from a hypothetical nuclear accident with rainstorms over dense population areas is considered. The conditional probability of the occurrence of hot spots from intense cellular rainfall is presented

Applications of high-throughput clonogenic survival assays in high-LET particle microbeams

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonios eGeorgantzoglou

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Charged particle therapy is increasingly becoming a valuable tool in cancer treatment, mainly due to the favorable interaction of particle radiation with matter. Its application is still limited due, in part, to lack of data regarding the radiosensitivity of certain cell lines to this radiation type, especially to high-LET particles. From the earliest days of radiation biology, the clonogenic survival assay has been used to provide radiation response data. This method produces reliable data but it is not optimized for high-throughput microbeam studies with high-LET radiation where high levels of cell killing lead to a very low probability of maintaining cells’ clonogenic potential. A new method, therefore, is proposed in this paper, which could potentially allow these experiments to be conducted in a high-throughput fashion. Cells are seeded in special polypropylene dishes and bright-field illumination provides cell visualization. Digital images are obtained and cell detection is applied based on corner detection, generating individual cell targets as x-y points. These points in the dish are then irradiated individually by a micron field size high-LET microbeam. Post-irradiation, time-lapse imaging follows cells’ response. All irradiated cells are tracked by linking trajectories in all time-frames, based on finding their nearest position. Cell divisions are detected based on cell appearance and individual cell temporary corner density. The number of divisions anticipated is low due to the high probability of cell killing from high-LET irradiation. Survival curves are produced based on cell’s capacity to divide at least 4-5 times. The process is repeated for a range of doses of radiation. Validation shows the efficiency of the proposed cell detection and tracking method in finding cell divisions.

Applications of High-Throughput Clonogenic Survival Assays in High-LET Particle Microbeams.

Science.gov (United States)

Georgantzoglou, Antonios; Merchant, Michael J; Jeynes, Jonathan C G; Mayhead, Natalie; Punia, Natasha; Butler, Rachel E; Jena, Rajesh

2015-01-01

Charged particle therapy is increasingly becoming a valuable tool in cancer treatment, mainly due to the favorable interaction of particle radiation with matter. Its application is still limited due, in part, to lack of data regarding the radiosensitivity of certain cell lines to this radiation type, especially to high-linear energy transfer (LET) particles. From the earliest days of radiation biology, the clonogenic survival assay has been used to provide radiation response data. This method produces reliable data but it is not optimized for high-throughput microbeam studies with high-LET radiation where high levels of cell killing lead to a very low probability of maintaining cells' clonogenic potential. A new method, therefore, is proposed in this paper, which could potentially allow these experiments to be conducted in a high-throughput fashion. Cells are seeded in special polypropylene dishes and bright-field illumination provides cell visualization. Digital images are obtained and cell detection is applied based on corner detection, generating individual cell targets as x-y points. These points in the dish are then irradiated individually by a micron field size high-LET microbeam. Post-irradiation, time-lapse imaging follows cells' response. All irradiated cells are tracked by linking trajectories in all time-frames, based on finding their nearest position. Cell divisions are detected based on cell appearance and individual cell temporary corner density. The number of divisions anticipated is low due to the high probability of cell killing from high-LET irradiation. Survival curves are produced based on cell's capacity to divide at least four to five times. The process is repeated for a range of doses of radiation. Validation shows the efficiency of the proposed cell detection and tracking method in finding cell divisions.

Variation in the standard deviation of the lure rating distribution: Implications for estimates of recollection probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Dopkins, Stephen; Varner, Kaitlin; Hoyer, Darin

2017-10-01

In word recognition semantic priming of test words increased the false-alarm rate and the mean of confidence ratings to lures. Such priming also increased the standard deviation of confidence ratings to lures and the slope of the z-ROC function, suggesting that the priming increased the standard deviation of the lure evidence distribution. The Unequal Variance Signal Detection (UVSD) model interpreted the priming as increasing the standard deviation of the lure evidence distribution. Without additional parameters the Dual Process Signal Detection (DPSD) model could only accommodate the results by fitting the data for related and unrelated primes separately, interpreting the priming, implausibly, as decreasing the probability of target recollection (DPSD). With an additional parameter, for the probability of false (lure) recollection the model could fit the data for related and unrelated primes together, interpreting the priming as increasing the probability of false recollection. These results suggest that DPSD estimates of target recollection probability will decrease with increases in the lure confidence/evidence standard deviation unless a parameter is included for false recollection. Unfortunately the size of a given lure confidence/evidence standard deviation relative to other possible lure confidence/evidence standard deviations is often unspecified by context. Hence the model often has no way of estimating false recollection probability and thereby correcting its estimates of target recollection probability.

Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Main Propulsion System (MPS) Gaseous Hydrogen (GH2) Flow Control Valve (FCV) Poppet Eddy Current (EC) Inspection Probability of Detection (POD) Study. Volume 1

Science.gov (United States)

Piascik, Robert S.; Prosser, William H.

2011-01-01

The Director of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), requested an independent assessment of the anomalous gaseous hydrogen (GH2) flow incident on the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Vehicle (OV)-105 during the Space Transportation System (STS)-126 mission. The main propulsion system (MPS) engine #2 GH2 flow control valve (FCV) LV-57 transition from low towards high flow position without being commanded. Post-flight examination revealed that the FCV LV-57 poppet had experienced a fatigue failure that liberated a section of the poppet flange. The NESC assessment provided a peer review of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD), stress analysis, and impact testing. A probability of detection (POD) study was requested by the SSP Orbiter Project for the eddy current (EC) nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques that were developed to inspect the flight FCV poppets. This report contains the findings and recommendations from the NESC assessment.

The probability of malignancy in small pulmonary nodules coexisting with potentially operable lung cancer detected by CT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan, Yue; Matsumoto, Tsuneo; Hiyama, Atsuto; Miura, Goji; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Emoto, Takuya; Kawamura, Takeo; Matsunaga, Naofumi

2003-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the probability of malignancy in one or two small nodules 1 cm or less coexisting with potentially operable lung cancer (coexisting small nodules). The preoperative helical CT scans of 223 patients with lung cancer were retrospectively reviewed. The probability of malignancy of coexisting small nodules was evaluated based on nodule size, location, and clinical stage of the primary lung cancers. Seventy-one coexisting small nodules were found on conventional CT in 58 (26%) of 223 patients, and 14 (6%) patients had malignant nodules. Eighteen (25%) of such nodules were malignant. The probability of malignancy was not significantly different between two groups of nodules larger and smaller than 0.5 cm (p=0.1). The probability of malignancy of such nodules within primary tumor lobe was significantly higher than that in the other lobes (p<0.01). Metastatic nodules were significantly fewer in clinical stage-IA patients than in the patients with the other stage (p<0.01); however, four (57%) of seven synchronous lung cancers were located in the non-primary tumor lobes in the clinical stage-I patients. Malignant coexisting small nodules are not infrequent, and such nodules in the non-primary tumor lobes should be carefully diagnosed. (orig.)

Probability for statisticians

CERN Document Server

Shorack, Galen R

2017-01-01

This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

A brief introduction to probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

2018-02-01

The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

Muon radiography technology for detecting high-Z materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma Lingling; Wang Wenxin; Zhou Jianrong; Sun Shaohua; Liu Zuoye; Li Lu; Du Hongchuan; Zhang Xiaodong; Hu Bitao

2010-01-01

This paper studies the possibility of using the scattering of cosmic muons to identify threatening high-Z materials. Various scenarios of threat material detection are simulated with the Geant4 toolkit. PoCA (Point of Closest Approach) algorithm reconstructing muon track gives 3D radiography images of the target material. Z-discrimination capability, effects of the placement of high-Z materials, shielding materials inside the cargo, and spatial resolution of position sensitive detector for muon radiography are carefully studied. Our results show that a detector position resolution of 50 μm is good enough for shielded materials detection. (authors)

Choice probability generating functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

2013-01-01

This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

Probability of satellite collision

Science.gov (United States)

Mccarter, J. W.

1972-01-01

A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

Real analysis and probability

CERN Document Server

Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

1972-01-01

Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

Probability and Measure

CERN Document Server

Billingsley, Patrick

2012-01-01

Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

Experimental Probability in Elementary School

Science.gov (United States)

Andrew, Lane

2009-01-01

Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

Subsequent investigation and management of patients with intermediate-category and - probability ventilation - perfusion scintigraphy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walsh, G.; Jones, D.N.

2000-01-01

The authors wished to determine the proportion of patients with intermediate-category and intermediate-probability ventilation-perfusion scintigraphy (IVQS) who proceed to further imaging for investigation of thromboembolism, to identify the defining clinical parameters and to determine the proportion of patients who have a definite imaging diagnosis of thromboembolism prior to discharge from hospital on anticoagulation therapy. One hundred and twelve VQS studies performed at the Flinders Medical Centre over a 9-month period were reported as having intermediate category and probability for pulmonary embolism. Medical case notes were available for review in 99 of these patients and from these the pretest clinical probability, subsequent patient progress and treatment were recorded. Eight cases were excluded because they were already receiving anticoagulation therapy. In the remaining 91 patients the pretest clinical probability was considered to be low in 25; intermediate in 30; and high in 36 cases. In total, 51.6% (n = 47) of these patients (8% (n = 2) with low, 66% (n = 20) with intermediate, and 69.4% (n = 25) with high pretest probability) proceeded to CT pulmonary angiography (CTPA) and/or lower limb duplex Doppler ultrasound (DUS) evaluation. Of the patients with IVQS results, 30.7% (n 28) were evaluated with CTPA. No patient with a low, all patients with a high and 46% of patients with an intermediate pretest probability initially received anticoagulation therapy. This was discontinued in three patients with high and in 12 patients with intermediate clinical probability prior to discharge from hospital. Overall, 40% of patients discharged on anticoagulation therapy (including 39% of those with a high pretest probability) had a positive imaging diagnosis of thromboembolism The results suggest that, although the majority of patients with intermediate-to-high pretest probability and IVQS proceed to further imaging investigation, CTPA is relatively underused in

Probability of misclassifying biological elements in surface waters.

Science.gov (United States)

Loga, Małgorzata; Wierzchołowska-Dziedzic, Anna

2017-11-24

Measurement uncertainties are inherent to assessment of biological indices of water bodies. The effect of these uncertainties on the probability of misclassification of ecological status is the subject of this paper. Four Monte-Carlo (M-C) models were applied to simulate the occurrence of random errors in the measurements of metrics corresponding to four biological elements of surface waters: macrophytes, phytoplankton, phytobenthos, and benthic macroinvertebrates. Long series of error-prone measurement values of these metrics, generated by M-C models, were used to identify cases in which values of any of the four biological indices lay outside of the "true" water body class, i.e., outside the class assigned from the actual physical measurements. Fraction of such cases in the M-C generated series was used to estimate the probability of misclassification. The method is particularly useful for estimating the probability of misclassification of the ecological status of surface water bodies in the case of short sequences of measurements of biological indices. The results of the Monte-Carlo simulations show a relatively high sensitivity of this probability to measurement errors of the river macrophyte index (MIR) and high robustness to measurement errors of the benthic macroinvertebrate index (MMI). The proposed method of using Monte-Carlo models to estimate the probability of misclassification has significant potential for assessing the uncertainty of water body status reported to the EC by the EU member countries according to WFD. The method can be readily applied also in risk assessment of water management decisions before adopting the status dependent corrective actions.

The Influence of Phonotactic Probability on Word Recognition in Toddlers

Science.gov (United States)

MacRoy-Higgins, Michelle; Shafer, Valerie L.; Schwartz, Richard G.; Marton, Klara

2014-01-01

This study examined the influence of phonotactic probability on word recognition in English-speaking toddlers. Typically developing toddlers completed a preferential looking paradigm using familiar words, which consisted of either high or low phonotactic probability sound sequences. The participants' looking behavior was recorded in response to…

Incidental learning of probability information is differentially affected by the type of visual working memory representation.

Science.gov (United States)

van Lamsweerde, Amanda E; Beck, Melissa R

2015-12-01

In this study, we investigated whether the ability to learn probability information is affected by the type of representation held in visual working memory. Across 4 experiments, participants detected changes to displays of coloured shapes. While participants detected changes in 1 dimension (e.g., colour), a feature from a second, nonchanging dimension (e.g., shape) predicted which object was most likely to change. In Experiments 1 and 3, items could be grouped by similarity in the changing dimension across items (e.g., colours and shapes were repeated in the display), while in Experiments 2 and 4 items could not be grouped by similarity (all features were unique). Probability information from the predictive dimension was learned and used to increase performance, but only when all of the features within a display were unique (Experiments 2 and 4). When it was possible to group by feature similarity in the changing dimension (e.g., 2 blue objects appeared within an array), participants were unable to learn probability information and use it to improve performance (Experiments 1 and 3). The results suggest that probability information can be learned in a dimension that is not explicitly task-relevant, but only when the probability information is represented with the changing dimension in visual working memory. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Probabilities in physics

CERN Document Server

Hartmann, Stephan

2011-01-01

Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Grimmett, Geoffrey

2014-01-01

Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at inspection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simola, K.; Cronvall, O.; Maennistoe, I. (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland)); Gunnars, J.; Alverlind, L.; Dillstroem, P. (Inspecta Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Gandossi, L. (European Commission Joint Research Centre, Brussels (Belgium))

2009-12-15

The aim of the project was to study the effect of POD assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified POD curve e.g. in risk-informed in-service inspection (RI-ISI) studies. The results of the study indicate that the use of a simplified POD curve could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications. Another aim was to compare various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of cases. Through benchmarking one can identify differences and similarities between modelling approaches, and provide added confidence on models and identify development needs. Comparing the leakage probabilities calculated by different approaches at the end of plant lifetime (60 years) shows that the results are very similar when inspections are not accounted for. However, when inspections are taken into account the predicted order of magnitude differs. Further studies would be needed to investigate the reasons for the differences. Development needs and plans for the benchmarked structural reliability models are discussed. (author)

Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at inspection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simola, K.; Cronvall, O.; Maennistoe, I.; Gunnars, J.; Alverlind, L.; Dillstroem, P.; Gandossi, L.

2009-12-01

The aim of the project was to study the effect of POD assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified POD curve e.g. in risk-informed in-service inspection (RI-ISI) studies. The results of the study indicate that the use of a simplified POD curve could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications. Another aim was to compare various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of cases. Through benchmarking one can identify differences and similarities between modelling approaches, and provide added confidence on models and identify development needs. Comparing the leakage probabilities calculated by different approaches at the end of plant lifetime (60 years) shows that the results are very similar when inspections are not accounted for. However, when inspections are taken into account the predicted order of magnitude differs. Further studies would be needed to investigate the reasons for the differences. Development needs and plans for the benchmarked structural reliability models are discussed. (author)

Avian metapneumovirus (AMPV) attachment protein involvement in probable virus evolution concurrent with mass live vaccine introduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Cecchinato, Mattia; Catelli, Elena; Lupini, Caterina; Ricchizzi, Enrico; Clubbe, Jayne; Battilani, Mara; Naylor, Clive J

2010-11-20

Avian metapneumoviruses detected in Northern Italy between 1987 and 2007 were sequenced in their fusion (F) and attachment (G) genes together with the same genes from isolates collected throughout western European prior to 1994. Fusion protein genes sequences were highly conserved while G protein sequences showed much greater heterogeneity. Phylogenetic studies based on both genes clearly showed that later Italian viruses were significantly different to all earlier virus detections, including early detections from Italy. Furthermore a serine residue in the G proteins and lysine residue in the fusion protein were exclusive to Italian viruses, indicating that later viruses probably arose within the country and the notion that these later viruses evolved from earlier Italian progenitors cannot be discounted. Biocomputing analysis applied to F and G proteins of later Italian viruses predicted that only G contained altered T cell epitopes. It appears likely that Italian field viruses evolved in response to selection pressure from vaccine induced immunity. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nitrogen detected TROSY at high field yields high resolution and sensitivity for protein NMR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Takeuchi, Koh [National Institute for Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Molecular Profiling Research Center for Drug Discovery (Japan); Arthanari, Haribabu [Harvard Medical School, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Pharmacology (United States); Shimada, Ichio, E-mail: shimada@iw-nmr.f.u-tokyo.ac.jp [National Institute for Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Molecular Profiling Research Center for Drug Discovery (Japan); Wagner, Gerhard, E-mail: gerhard-wagner@hms.harvard.edu [Harvard Medical School, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Pharmacology (United States)

2015-12-15

Detection of {sup 15}N in multidimensional NMR experiments of proteins has sparsely been utilized because of the low gyromagnetic ratio (γ) of nitrogen and the presumed low sensitivity of such experiments. Here we show that selecting the TROSY components of proton-attached {sup 15}N nuclei (TROSY {sup 15}N{sub H}) yields high quality spectra in high field magnets (>600 MHz) by taking advantage of the slow {sup 15}N transverse relaxation and compensating for the inherently low {sup 15}N sensitivity. The {sup 15}N TROSY transverse relaxation rates increase modestly with molecular weight but the TROSY gain in peak heights depends strongly on the magnetic field strength. Theoretical simulations predict that the narrowest line width for the TROSY {sup 15}N{sub H} component can be obtained at 900 MHz, but sensitivity reaches its maximum around 1.2 GHz. Based on these considerations, a {sup 15}N-detected 2D {sup 1}H–{sup 15}N TROSY-HSQC ({sup 15}N-detected TROSY-HSQC) experiment was developed and high-quality 2D spectra were recorded at 800 MHz in 2 h for 1 mM maltose-binding protein at 278 K (τ{sub c} ∼ 40 ns). Unlike for {sup 1}H detected TROSY, deuteration is not mandatory to benefit {sup 15}N detected TROSY due to reduced dipolar broadening, which facilitates studies of proteins that cannot be deuterated, especially in cases where production requires eukaryotic expression systems. The option of recording {sup 15}N TROSY of proteins expressed in H{sub 2}O media also alleviates the problem of incomplete amide proton back exchange, which often hampers the detection of amide groups in the core of large molecular weight proteins that are expressed in D{sub 2}O culture media and cannot be refolded for amide back exchange. These results illustrate the potential of {sup 15}N{sub H}-detected TROSY experiments as a means to exploit the high resolution offered by high field magnets near and above 1 GHz.

Introduction to probability

CERN Document Server

Freund, John E

1993-01-01

Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

A Field Evaluation of the Time-of-Detection Method to Estimate Population Size and Density for Aural Avian Point Counts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mathew W. Alldredge

2007-12-01

Full Text Available The time-of-detection method for aural avian point counts is a new method of estimating abundance, allowing for uncertain probability of detection. The method has been specifically designed to allow for variation in singing rates of birds. It involves dividing the time interval of the point count into several subintervals and recording the detection history of the subintervals when each bird sings. The method can be viewed as generating data equivalent to closed capture-recapture information. The method is different from the distance and multiple-observer methods in that it is not required that all the birds sing during the point count. As this method is new and there is some concern as to how well individual birds can be followed, we carried out a field test of the method using simulated known populations of singing birds, using a laptop computer to send signals to audio stations distributed around a point. The system mimics actual aural avian point counts, but also allows us to know the size and spatial distribution of the populations we are sampling. Fifty 8-min point counts (broken into four 2-min intervals using eight species of birds were simulated. Singing rate of an individual bird of a species was simulated following a Markovian process (singing bouts followed by periods of silence, which we felt was more realistic than a truly random process. The main emphasis of our paper is to compare results from species singing at (high and low homogenous rates per interval with those singing at (high and low heterogeneous rates. Population size was estimated accurately for the species simulated, with a high homogeneous probability of singing. Populations of simulated species with lower but homogeneous singing probabilities were somewhat underestimated. Populations of species simulated with heterogeneous singing probabilities were substantially underestimated. Underestimation was caused by both the very low detection probabilities of all distant

Theoretical determination of gamma spectrometry systems efficiency based on probability functions. Application to self-attenuation correction factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barrera, Manuel, E-mail: manuel.barrera@uca.es [Escuela Superior de Ingeniería, University of Cadiz, Avda, Universidad de Cadiz 10, 11519 Puerto Real, Cadiz (Spain); Suarez-Llorens, Alfonso [Facultad de Ciencias, University of Cadiz, Avda, Rep. Saharaui s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cadiz (Spain); Casas-Ruiz, Melquiades; Alonso, José J.; Vidal, Juan [CEIMAR, University of Cadiz, Avda, Rep. Saharaui s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cádiz (Spain)

2017-05-11

A generic theoretical methodology for the calculation of the efficiency of gamma spectrometry systems is introduced in this work. The procedure is valid for any type of source and detector and can be applied to determine the full energy peak and the total efficiency of any source-detector system. The methodology is based on the idea of underlying probability of detection, which describes the physical model for the detection of the gamma radiation at the particular studied situation. This probability depends explicitly on the direction of the gamma radiation, allowing the use of this dependence the development of more realistic and complex models than the traditional models based on the point source integration. The probability function that has to be employed in practice must reproduce the relevant characteristics of the detection process occurring at the particular studied situation. Once the probability is defined, the efficiency calculations can be performed in general by using numerical methods. Monte Carlo integration procedure is especially useful to perform the calculations when complex probability functions are used. The methodology can be used for the direct determination of the efficiency and also for the calculation of corrections that require this determination of the efficiency, as it is the case of coincidence summing, geometric or self-attenuation corrections. In particular, we have applied the procedure to obtain some of the classical self-attenuation correction factors usually employed to correct for the sample attenuation of cylindrical geometry sources. The methodology clarifies the theoretical basis and approximations associated to each factor, by making explicit the probability which is generally hidden and implicit to each model. It has been shown that most of these self-attenuation correction factors can be derived by using a common underlying probability, having this probability a growing level of complexity as it reproduces more precisely

Contingency bias in probability judgement may arise from ambiguity regarding additional causes.

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, Chris J; Griffiths, Oren; More, Pranjal; Lovibond, Peter F

2013-09-01

In laboratory contingency learning tasks, people usually give accurate estimates of the degree of contingency between a cue and an outcome. However, if they are asked to estimate the probability of the outcome in the presence of the cue, they tend to be biased by the probability of the outcome in the absence of the cue. This bias is often attributed to an automatic contingency detection mechanism, which is said to act via an excitatory associative link to activate the outcome representation at the time of testing. We conducted 3 experiments to test alternative accounts of contingency bias. Participants were exposed to the same outcome probability in the presence of the cue, but different outcome probabilities in the absence of the cue. Phrasing the test question in terms of frequency rather than probability and clarifying the test instructions reduced but did not eliminate contingency bias. However, removal of ambiguity regarding the presence of additional causes during the test phase did eliminate contingency bias. We conclude that contingency bias may be due to ambiguity in the test question, and therefore it does not require postulation of a separate associative link-based mechanism.

Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

CERN Document Server

Dworsky, Lawrence N

2008-01-01

An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

Effects of internal hydrogen on the vacancy loop formation probability in Al

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bui, T.X.; Sirois, E.; Robertson, I.M.

1990-04-01

The effect of internal hydrogen on the formation of vacancy dislocation loops from heavy-ion generated displacement cascades in Al has been investigated. Samples of high-purity aluminum and aluminum containing 900 and 1300 appM of hydrogen were irradiated at room temperature with 50 keV Kr+ ions. The ion dose rate was typically 2 x 10 10 ions cm -2 sec -1 and the ion dose was between 10 11 and 10 13 ion cm -2 . Under these irradiation conditions, dislocation loops were observed in all compositions, although the formation probability was relatively low (less than 10 percent of the displacement cascades produced a vacancy loop). The loop formation probability was further reduced by the presence of hydrogen. No difference in the geometry or the size of the loops created in the hydrogen free and hydrogen charged samples was found. These results are difficult to interpret, and the explanation may lie in the distribution and form of the hydrogen. To account for the large hydrogen concentrations and from calculations of the energy associated with hydrogen entry into aluminum, it has been suggested that the hydrogen enters the aluminum lattice with an accompanying vacancy. This will create hydrogen-vacancy complexes in the material; two dimensional complexes have been detected in the hydrogen-charged, but unirradiated, samples by the small-angle x-ray scattering technique. The possibility of these complexes trapping the vacancies produced by the cascade process exists thus lowering the formation probability. However, such a mechanism must occur within the lifetime of the cascade. Alternatively, if a displacement cascade overlaps with the hydrogen-vacancy complexes, the lower atomic density of the region will result in an increase in the cascade volume (decrease in the local vacancy concentration) which will also reduce the loop formation probability

Smart Sensor Based Obstacle Detection for High-Speed Unmanned Surface Vehicle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hermann, Dan; Galeazzi, Roberto; Andersen, Jens Christian

2015-01-01

This paper describes an obstacle detection system for a high-speed and agile unmanned surface vehicle (USV), running at speeds up to 30 m/s. The aim is a real-time and high performance obstacle detection system using both radar and vision technologies to detect obstacles within a range of 175 m. ...... performance using sensor fusion of radar and computer vision....

Failure probability analyses for PWSCC in Ni-based alloy welds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Udagawa, Makoto; Katsuyama, Jinya; Onizawa, Kunio; Li, Yinsheng

2015-01-01

A number of cracks due to primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) in pressurized water reactors and Ni-based alloy stress corrosion cracking (NiSCC) in boiling water reactors have been detected around Ni-based alloy welds. The causes of crack initiation and growth due to stress corrosion cracking include weld residual stress, operating stress, the materials, and the environment. We have developed the analysis code PASCAL-NP for calculating the failure probability and assessment of the structural integrity of cracked components on the basis of probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) considering PWSCC and NiSCC. This PFM analysis code has functions for calculating the incubation time of PWSCC and NiSCC crack initiation, evaluation of crack growth behavior considering certain crack location and orientation patterns, and evaluation of failure behavior near Ni-based alloy welds due to PWSCC and NiSCC in a probabilistic manner. Herein, actual plants affected by PWSCC have been analyzed using PASCAL-NP. Failure probabilities calculated by PASCAL-NP are in reasonable agreement with the detection data. Furthermore, useful knowledge related to leakage due to PWSCC was obtained through parametric studies using this code

System Geometries and Transit/Eclipse Probabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Howard A.

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Transiting exoplanets provide access to data to study the mass-radius relation and internal structure of extrasolar planets. Long-period transiting planets allow insight into planetary environments similar to the Solar System where, in contrast to hot Jupiters, planets are not constantly exposed to the intense radiation of their parent stars. Observations of secondary eclipses additionally permit studies of exoplanet temperatures and large-scale exo-atmospheric properties. We show how transit and eclipse probabilities are related to planet-star system geometries, particularly for long-period, eccentric orbits. The resulting target selection and observational strategies represent the principal ingredients of our photometric survey of known radial-velocity planets with the aim of detecting transit signatures (TERMS.

Risk Probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

Scale-invariant transition probabilities in free word association trajectories

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Elias Costa

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Free-word association has been used as a vehicle to understand the organization of human thoughts. The original studies relied mainly on qualitative assertions, yielding the widely intuitive notion that trajectories of word associations are structured, yet considerably more random than organized linguistic text. Here we set to determine a precise characterization of this space, generating a large number of word association trajectories in a web implemented game. We embedded the trajectories in the graph of word co-occurrences from a linguistic corpus. To constrain possible transport models we measured the memory loss and the cycling probability. These two measures could not be reconciled by a bounded diffusive model since the cycling probability was very high (16 % of order-2 cycles implying a majority of short-range associations whereas the memory loss was very rapid (converging to the asymptotic value in ∼ 7 steps which, in turn, forced a high fraction of long-range associations. We show that memory loss and cycling probabilities of free word association trajectories can be simultaneously accounted by a model in which transitions are determined by a scale invariant probability distribution.

Unrelated Hematopoietic Stem Cell Donor Matching Probability and Search Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.-M. Tiercy

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In transplantation of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs from unrelated donors a high HLA compatibility level decreases the risk of acute graft-versus-host disease and mortality. The diversity of the HLA system at the allelic and haplotypic level and the heterogeneity of HLA typing data of the registered donors render the search process a complex task. This paper summarizes our experience with a search algorithm that includes at the start of the search a probability estimate (high/intermediate/low to identify a HLA-A, B, C, DRB1, DQB1-compatible donor (a 10/10 match. Based on 2002–2011 searches about 30% of patients have a high, 30% an intermediate, and 40% a low probability search. Search success rate and duration are presented and discussed in light of the experience of other centers. Overall a 9-10/10 matched HSC donor can now be identified for 60–80% of patients of European descent. For high probability searches donors can be selected on the basis of DPB1-matching with an estimated success rate of >40%. For low probability searches there is no consensus on which HLA incompatibilities are more permissive, although HLA-DQB1 mismatches are generally considered as acceptable. Models for the discrimination of more detrimental mismatches based on specific amino acid residues rather than specific HLA alleles are presented.

Jihadist Foreign Fighter Phenomenon in Western Europe: A Low-Probability, High-Impact Threat

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edwin Bakker

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The phenomenon of foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq is making headlines. Their involvement in the atrocities committed by terrorist groups such as the so-called “Islamic State” and Jabhat al-Nusra have caused grave concern and public outcry in the foreign fighters’ European countries of origin. While much has been written about these foreign fighters and the possible threat they pose, the impact of this phenomenon on Western European societies has yet to be documented. This Research Paper explores four particular areas where this impact is most visible: a violent incidents associated with (returned foreign fighters, b official and political responses linked to these incidents, c public opinion, and d anti-Islam reactions linked to these incidents. The authors conclude that the phenomenon of jihadist foreign fighters in European societies should be primarily regarded as a social and political threat, not a physical one. They consider the phenomenon of European jihadist foreign fighters a “low-probability, high-impact” threat.

Quantum processes: probability fluxes, transition probabilities in unit time and vacuum vibrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oleinik, V.P.; Arepjev, Ju D.

1989-01-01

Transition probabilities in unit time and probability fluxes are compared in studying the elementary quantum processes -the decay of a bound state under the action of time-varying and constant electric fields. It is shown that the difference between these quantities may be considerable, and so the use of transition probabilities W instead of probability fluxes Π, in calculating the particle fluxes, may lead to serious errors. The quantity W represents the rate of change with time of the population of the energy levels relating partly to the real states and partly to the virtual ones, and it cannot be directly measured in experiment. The vacuum background is shown to be continuously distorted when a perturbation acts on a system. Because of this the viewpoint of an observer on the physical properties of real particles continuously varies with time. This fact is not taken into consideration in the conventional theory of quantum transitions based on using the notion of probability amplitude. As a result, the probability amplitudes lose their physical meaning. All the physical information on quantum dynamics of a system is contained in the mean values of physical quantities. The existence of considerable differences between the quantities W and Π permits one in principle to make a choice of the correct theory of quantum transitions on the basis of experimental data. (author)

Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Main Propulsion System (MPS) Gaseous Hydrogen (GH2) Flow Control Valve (FCV) Poppet Eddy Current (EC) Inspection Probability of Detection (POD) Study. Volume 2; Appendices

Science.gov (United States)

Piascik, Robert S.; Prosser, William H.

2011-01-01

The Director of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), requested an independent assessment of the anomalous gaseous hydrogen (GH2) flow incident on the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Vehicle (OV)-105 during the Space Transportation System (STS)-126 mission. The main propulsion system (MPS) engine #2 GH2 flow control valve (FCV) LV-57 transition from low towards high flow position without being commanded. Post-flight examination revealed that the FCV LV-57 poppet had experienced a fatigue failure that liberated a section of the poppet flange. The NESC assessment provided a peer review of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD), stress analysis, and impact testing. A probability of detection (POD) study was requested by the SSP Orbiter Project for the eddy current (EC) nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques that were developed to inspect the flight FCV poppets. This report contains the Appendices to the main report.

K-forbidden transition probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saitoh, T.R.; Sletten, G.; Bark, R.A.; Hagemann, G.B.; Herskind, B.; Saitoh-Hashimoto, N.; Tsukuba Univ., Ibaraki

2000-01-01

Reduced hindrance factors of K-forbidden transitions are compiled for nuclei with A∝180 where γ-vibrational states are observed. Correlations between these reduced hindrance factors and Coriolis forces, statistical level mixing and γ-softness have been studied. It is demonstrated that the K-forbidden transition probabilities are related to γ-softness. The decay of the high-K bandheads has been studied by means of the two-state mixing, which would be induced by the γ-softness, with the use of a number of K-forbidden transitions compiled in the present work, where high-K bandheads are depopulated by both E2 and ΔI=1 transitions. The validity of the two-state mixing scheme has been examined by using the proposed identity of the B(M1)/B(E2) ratios of transitions depopulating high-K bandheads and levels of low-K bands. A break down of the identity might indicate that other levels would mediate transitions between high- and low-K states. (orig.)

Sequential Analysis: Hypothesis Testing and Changepoint Detection

Science.gov (United States)

2014-07-11

maintains the flexibility of deciding sooner than the fixed sample size procedure at the price of some lower power [13, 514]. The sequential probability... markets , detection of signals with unknown arrival time in seismology, navigation, radar and sonar signal processing, speech segmentation, and the... skimming cruise missile can yield a significant increase in the probability of raid annihilation. Furthermore, usually detection systems are

Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Ballentine, Leslie E.

2016-08-01

Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

Human Error Probability Assessment During Maintenance Activities of Marine Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rabiul Islam

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Maintenance operations on-board ships are highly demanding. Maintenance operations are intensive activities requiring high man–machine interactions in challenging and evolving conditions. The evolving conditions are weather conditions, workplace temperature, ship motion, noise and vibration, and workload and stress. For example, extreme weather condition affects seafarers' performance, increasing the chances of error, and, consequently, can cause injuries or fatalities to personnel. An effective human error probability model is required to better manage maintenance on-board ships. The developed model would assist in developing and maintaining effective risk management protocols. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop a human error probability model considering various internal and external factors affecting seafarers' performance. Methods: The human error probability model is developed using probability theory applied to Bayesian network. The model is tested using the data received through the developed questionnaire survey of >200 experienced seafarers with >5 years of experience. The model developed in this study is used to find out the reliability of human performance on particular maintenance activities. Results: The developed methodology is tested on the maintenance of marine engine's cooling water pump for engine department and anchor windlass for deck department. In the considered case studies, human error probabilities are estimated in various scenarios and the results are compared between the scenarios and the different seafarer categories. The results of the case studies for both departments are also compared. Conclusion: The developed model is effective in assessing human error probabilities. These probabilities would get dynamically updated as and when new information is available on changes in either internal (i.e., training, experience, and fatigue or external (i.e., environmental and operational conditions

Detection and estimation research of high-speed railway catenary

CERN Document Server

Liu, Zhigang

2017-01-01

This book describes the wave characteristics of contact lines taking wind into consideration and discusses new methods for detecting catenary geometry, pantograph slide fault, and catenary support system faults. It also introduces wire-irregularity detection methods for catenary estimation, and discusses modern spectrum estimation tools for catenary. It is organized in three parts: the first discusses statistical characteristics of pantograph-catenary data, such as stationarity, periodicity, correlation, high-order statistical properties and wave characteristics of contact lines, which are the basis of pantograph-catenary relationship analysis. The second part includes geometry parameter detection and support-system fault detection in catenary, as well as slide-fault detection in pantographs, and presents some new detection algorithms and plans. The final part addresses catenary estimation, including detection of contact-line wire irregularities and estimation of catenary based on spectrum, and presents detec...

Analytical models of probability distribution and excess noise factor of solid state photomultiplier signals with crosstalk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinogradov, S.

2012-01-01

Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPM), also called Solid State Photomultipliers (SSPM), are based on Geiger mode avalanche breakdown that is limited by a strong negative feedback. An SSPM can detect and resolve single photons due to the high gain and ultra-low excess noise of avalanche multiplication in this mode. Crosstalk and afterpulsing processes associated with the high gain introduce specific excess noise and deteriorate the photon number resolution of the SSPM. The probabilistic features of these processes are widely studied because of its significance for the SSPM design, characterization, optimization and application, but the process modeling is mostly based on Monte Carlo simulations and numerical methods. In this study, crosstalk is considered to be a branching Poisson process, and analytical models of probability distribution and excess noise factor (ENF) of SSPM signals based on the Borel distribution as an advance on the geometric distribution models are presented and discussed. The models are found to be in a good agreement with the experimental probability distributions for dark counts and a few photon spectrums in a wide range of fired pixels number as well as with observed super-linear behavior of crosstalk ENF.

Choice Probability Generating Functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

Prediction and probability in sciences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.

1998-01-01

This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)

Entanglement probabilities of polymers: a white noise functional approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernido, Christopher C; Carpio-Bernido, M Victoria

2003-01-01

The entanglement probabilities for a highly flexible polymer to wind n times around a straight polymer are evaluated using white noise analysis. To introduce the white noise functional approach, the one-dimensional random walk problem is taken as an example. The polymer entanglement scenario, viewed as a random walk on a plane, is then treated and the entanglement probabilities are obtained for a magnetic flux confined along the straight polymer, and a case where an entangled polymer is subjected to the potential V = f-dot(s)θ. In the absence of the magnetic flux and the potential V, the entanglement probabilities reduce to a result obtained by Wiegel

Optical intensity modulation direct detection versus heterodyne detection: A high-SNR capacity comparison

KAUST Repository

Chaaban, Anas

2016-09-15

An optical wireless communications system which employs either intensity-modulation and direct-detection (IM-DD) or heterodyne detection (HD) is considered. IM-DD has lower complexity and cost than HD, but on the other hand, has lower capacity. It is therefore interesting to investigate the capacity gap between the two systems. The main focus of this paper is to investigate this gap at high SNR. Bounds on this gap are established for two cases: between IM-DD and HD, and between IM-DD and an HD-PAM which is an HD system employing pulse-amplitude modulation (PAM). While the gap between IM-DD and HD increases as the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) increases, the gap between IM-DD and an HD-PAM is upper bounded by a constant at high SNR. © 2015 IEEE.

Optical intensity modulation direct detection versus heterodyne detection: A high-SNR capacity comparison

KAUST Repository

Chaaban, Anas; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2016-01-01

An optical wireless communications system which employs either intensity-modulation and direct-detection (IM-DD) or heterodyne detection (HD) is considered. IM-DD has lower complexity and cost than HD, but on the other hand, has lower capacity. It is therefore interesting to investigate the capacity gap between the two systems. The main focus of this paper is to investigate this gap at high SNR. Bounds on this gap are established for two cases: between IM-DD and HD, and between IM-DD and an HD-PAM which is an HD system employing pulse-amplitude modulation (PAM). While the gap between IM-DD and HD increases as the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) increases, the gap between IM-DD and an HD-PAM is upper bounded by a constant at high SNR. © 2015 IEEE.

Mapping fire probability and severity in a Mediterranean area using different weather and fuel moisture scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Arca, B.; Salis, M.; Bacciu, V.; Duce, P.; Pellizzaro, G.; Ventura, A.; Spano, D.

2009-04-01

Although in many countries lightning is the main cause of ignition, in the Mediterranean Basin the forest fires are predominantly ignited by arson, or by human negligence. The fire season peaks coincide with extreme weather conditions (mainly strong winds, hot temperatures, low atmospheric water vapour content) and high tourist presence. Many works reported that in the Mediterranean Basin the projected impacts of climate change will cause greater weather variability and extreme weather conditions, with drier and hotter summers and heat waves. At long-term scale, climate changes could affect the fuel load and the dead/live fuel ratio, and therefore could change the vegetation flammability. At short-time scale, the increase of extreme weather events could directly affect fuel water status, and it could increase large fire occurrence. In this context, detecting the areas characterized by both high probability of large fire occurrence and high fire severity could represent an important component of the fire management planning. In this work we compared several fire probability and severity maps (fire occurrence, rate of spread, fireline intensity, flame length) obtained for a study area located in North Sardinia, Italy, using FlamMap simulator (USDA Forest Service, Missoula). FlamMap computes the potential fire behaviour characteristics over a defined landscape for given weather, wind and fuel moisture data. Different weather and fuel moisture scenarios were tested to predict the potential impact of climate changes on fire parameters. The study area, characterized by a mosaic of urban areas, protected areas, and other areas subject to anthropogenic disturbances, is mainly composed by fire-prone Mediterranean maquis. The input themes needed to run FlamMap were input as grid of 10 meters; the wind data, obtained using a computational fluid-dynamic model, were inserted as gridded file, with a resolution of 50 m. The analysis revealed high fire probability and severity in

Setting Performance Objectives for Radiation Detection Systems in Homeland Security Applications - Economic Models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wood, Thomas W.; Bredt, Ofelia P.; Heasler, Patrick G.; Reichmuth, Barbara A.; Milazzo, Matthew D.

2005-01-01

This paper develops simple frameworks for cost minimization of detector systems by trading off the costs of failed detection against the social costs of false alarms. A workable system must have a high degree of certainty in detecting real threats and yet impose low social costs. The models developed here use standard measures of detector performance and derive target detection probabilities and false-alarm tolerance specifications as functions of detector performance, threat traffic densities, and estimated costs

Setting Performance Objectives for Radiation Detection Systems in Homeland Security Applications - Economic Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wood, Thomas W.; Bredt, Ofelia P.; Heasler, Patrick G.; Reichmuth, Barbara A.; Milazzo, Matthew D.

2005-04-28

This paper develops simple frameworks for cost minimization of detector systems by trading off the costs of failed detection against the social costs of false alarms. A workable system must have a high degree of certainty in detecting real threats and yet impose low social costs. The models developed here use standard measures of detector performance and derive target detection probabilities and false-alarm tolerance specifications as functions of detector performance, threat traffic densities, and estimated costs.

The effect of faulty local detectors on a detection network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mirjalily, G.; Emadi, S.

2002-01-01

Distributed detection theory has received increasing attention recently. Development of multiple sensors for signal detection results in improved performance and increased reliability. in a detection network, each local sensor decides locally whether a signal is detected or not. The local decisions are sent to the fusion center, where the final decision is made. In this paper, a theoretic approach is considered to data fusion when one of the sensors is faulty. If the fusion center does not have any knowledge of this fault, the performance of the system is different than its normal performance. The changes in the error probabilities depend on the type of the fault and on the threshold value of the fission center test. We derived some expressions of the changes in the values of error probabilities. For some type of faults, the system false alarm probability increases significantly, whereas for some other faults, the system detection probability decreases significantly. To illustrate the results, a numerical example is also given

Posterior probability of linkage and maximal lod score.

Science.gov (United States)

Génin, E; Martinez, M; Clerget-Darpoux, F

1995-01-01

To detect linkage between a trait and a marker, Morton (1955) proposed to calculate the lod score z(theta 1) at a given value theta 1 of the recombination fraction. If z(theta 1) reaches +3 then linkage is concluded. However, in practice, lod scores are calculated for different values of the recombination fraction between 0 and 0.5 and the test is based on the maximum value of the lod score Zmax. The impact of this deviation of the test on the probability that in fact linkage does not exist, when linkage was concluded, is documented here. This posterior probability of no linkage can be derived by using Bayes' theorem. It is less than 5% when the lod score at a predetermined theta 1 is used for the test. But, for a Zmax of +3, we showed that it can reach 16.4%. Thus, considering a composite alternative hypothesis instead of a single one decreases the reliability of the test. The reliability decreases rapidly when Zmax is less than +3. Given a Zmax of +2.5, there is a 33% chance that linkage does not exist. Moreover, the posterior probability depends not only on the value of Zmax but also jointly on the family structures and on the genetic model. For a given Zmax, the chance that linkage exists may then vary.

The quantum probability calculus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jauch, J.M.

1976-01-01

The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

Fusion and normalization to enhance anomaly detection

Science.gov (United States)

Mayer, R.; Atkinson, G.; Antoniades, J.; Baumback, M.; Chester, D.; Edwards, J.; Goldstein, A.; Haas, D.; Henderson, S.; Liu, L.

2009-05-01

This study examines normalizing the imagery and the optimization metrics to enhance anomaly and change detection, respectively. The RX algorithm, the standard anomaly detector for hyperspectral imagery, more successfully extracts bright rather than dark man-made objects when applied to visible hyperspectral imagery. However, normalizing the imagery prior to applying the anomaly detector can help detect some of the problematic dark objects, but can also miss some bright objects. This study jointly fuses images of RX applied to normalized and unnormalized imagery and has a single decision surface. The technique was tested using imagery of commercial vehicles in urban environment gathered by a hyperspectral visible/near IR sensor mounted in an airborne platform. Combining detections first requires converting the detector output to a target probability. The observed anomaly detections were fitted with a linear combination of chi square distributions and these weights were used to help compute the target probability. Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) quantitatively assessed the target detection performance. The target detection performance is highly variable depending on the relative number of candidate bright and dark targets and false alarms and controlled in this study by using vegetation and street line masks. The joint Boolean OR and AND operations also generate variable performance depending on the scene. The joint SUM operation provides a reasonable compromise between OR and AND operations and has good target detection performance. In addition, new transforms based on normalizing correlation coefficient and least squares generate new transforms related to canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and a normalized image regression (NIR). Transforms based on CCA and NIR performed better than the standard approaches. Only RX detection of the unnormalized of the difference imagery in change detection provides adequate change detection performance.

Classification of Knee Joint Vibration Signals Using Bivariate Feature Distribution Estimation and Maximal Posterior Probability Decision Criterion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fang Zheng

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Analysis of knee joint vibration or vibroarthrographic (VAG signals using signal processing and machine learning algorithms possesses high potential for the noninvasive detection of articular cartilage degeneration, which may reduce unnecessary exploratory surgery. Feature representation of knee joint VAG signals helps characterize the pathological condition of degenerative articular cartilages in the knee. This paper used the kernel-based probability density estimation method to model the distributions of the VAG signals recorded from healthy subjects and patients with knee joint disorders. The estimated densities of the VAG signals showed explicit distributions of the normal and abnormal signal groups, along with the corresponding contours in the bivariate feature space. The signal classifications were performed by using the Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis, support vector machine with polynomial kernels, and the maximal posterior probability decision criterion. The maximal posterior probability decision criterion was able to provide the total classification accuracy of 86.67% and the area (Az of 0.9096 under the receiver operating characteristics curve, which were superior to the results obtained by either the Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis (accuracy: 81.33%, Az: 0.8564 or the support vector machine with polynomial kernels (accuracy: 81.33%, Az: 0.8533. Such results demonstrated the merits of the bivariate feature distribution estimation and the superiority of the maximal posterior probability decision criterion for analysis of knee joint VAG signals.

Fast Detection Method in Cooperative Cognitive Radio Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhengyi Li

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Cognitive Radio (CR technology improves the utilization of spectrum highly via opportunistic spectrum sharing, which requests fast detection as the spectrum utilization is dynamic. Taking into consideration the characteristic of wireless channels, we propose a fast detection scheme for a cooperative cognitive radio network, which consists of multiple CRs and a central control office. Specifically, each CR makes individual detection decision using the sequential probability ratio test combined with Neyman Pearson detection with respect to a specific observation window length. The proposed method upper bounds the detection delay. In addition, a weighted K out of N fusion rule is also proposed for the central control office to reach fast global decision based on the information collected from CRs, with more weights assigned for CRs with good channel conditions. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme can achieve fast detection while maintaining the detection accuracy.

Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

Science.gov (United States)

Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

2018-03-01

Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

The Probability of Detection in the Telephone Line of Device of the Unauthorized Removal of Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. V. Svintsov

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The article discusses the theory of quantitative description of the possible presence in the telephone line devices unauthorized removal of information, investigated with the help of probability theory.

Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goerlandt, Floris, E-mail: floris.goerlandt@tkk.f [Aalto University, School of Science and Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, P.O. Box 15300, FI-00076 AALTO, Espoo (Finland); Kujala, Pentti [Aalto University, School of Science and Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, P.O. Box 15300, FI-00076 AALTO, Espoo (Finland)

2011-01-15

Maritime traffic poses various risks in terms of human, environmental and economic loss. In a risk analysis of ship collisions, it is important to get a reasonable estimate for the probability of such accidents and the consequences they lead to. In this paper, a method is proposed to assess the probability of vessels colliding with each other. The method is capable of determining the expected number of accidents, the locations where and the time when they are most likely to occur, while providing input for models concerned with the expected consequences. At the basis of the collision detection algorithm lays an extensive time domain micro-simulation of vessel traffic in the given area. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to obtain a meaningful prediction of the relevant factors of the collision events. Data obtained through the Automatic Identification System is analyzed in detail to obtain realistic input data for the traffic simulation: traffic routes, the number of vessels on each route, the ship departure times, main dimensions and sailing speed. The results obtained by the proposed method for the studied case of the Gulf of Finland are presented, showing reasonable agreement with registered accident and near-miss data.

Ozone deposition velocities, reaction probabilities and product yields for green building materials

Science.gov (United States)

Lamble, S. P.; Corsi, R. L.; Morrison, G. C.

2011-12-01

Indoor surfaces can passively remove ozone that enters buildings, reducing occupant exposure without an energy penalty. However, reactions between ozone and building surfaces can generate and release aerosols and irritating and carcinogenic gases. To identify desirable indoor surfaces the deposition velocity, reaction probability and carbonyl product yields of building materials considered green (listed, recycled, sustainable, etc.) were quantified. Nineteen separate floor, wall or ceiling materials were tested in a 10 L, flow-through laboratory reaction chamber. Inlet ozone concentrations were maintained between 150 and 200 ppb (generally much lower in chamber air), relative humidity at 50%, temperature at 25 °C and exposure occurred over 24 h. Deposition velocities ranged from 0.25 m h -1 for a linoleum style flooring up to 8.2 m h -1 for a clay based paint; reaction probabilities ranged from 8.8 × 10 -7 to 6.9 × 10 -5 respectively. For all materials, product yields of C 1 thru C 12 saturated n-aldehydes, plus acetone ranged from undetectable to greater than 0.70 The most promising material was a clay wall plaster which exhibited a high deposition velocity (5.0 m h -1) and a low product yield (detection).

High mobility ZnO nanowires for terahertz detection applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Huiqiang; Peng, Rufang; Chu, Shijin; Chu, Sheng

2014-01-01

An oxide nanowire material was utilized for terahertz detection purpose. High quality ZnO nanowires were synthesized and field-effect transistors were fabricated. Electrical transport measurements demonstrated the nanowire with good transfer characteristics and fairly high electron mobility. It is shown that ZnO nanowires can be used as building blocks for the realization of terahertz detectors based on a one-dimensional plasmon detection configuration. Clear terahertz wave (∼0.3 THz) induced photovoltages were obtained at room temperature with varying incidence intensities. Further analysis showed that the terahertz photoresponse is closely related to the high electron mobility of the ZnO nanowire sample, which suggests that oxide nanoelectronics may find useful terahertz applications.

Linear positivity and virtual probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartle, James B.

2004-01-01

We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics

The pleasures of probability

CERN Document Server

Isaac, Richard

1995-01-01

The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandy, W. T. Jr.

2009-01-01

In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

Transition Dipole Moments and Transition Probabilities of the CN Radical

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Yuan; Shi, Deheng; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

2018-04-01

This paper studies the transition probabilities of electric dipole transitions between 10 low-lying states of the CN radical. These states are X2Σ+, A2Π, B2Σ+, a4Σ+, b4Π, 14Σ‑, 24Π, 14Δ, 16Σ+, and 16Π. The potential energy curves are calculated using the CASSCF method, which is followed by the icMRCI approach with the Davidson correction. The transition dipole moments between different states are calculated. To improve the accuracy of potential energy curves, core–valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections, as well as the extrapolation of potential energies to the complete basis set limit are included. The Franck–Condon factors and Einstein coefficients of emissions are calculated. The radiative lifetimes are determined for the vibrational levels of the A2Π, B2Σ+, b4Π, 14Σ‑, 24Π, 14Δ, and 16Π states. According to the transition probabilities and radiative lifetimes, some guidelines for detecting these states spectroscopically are proposed. The spin–orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic and vibrational properties is evaluated. The splitting energy in the A2Π state is determined to be 50.99 cm‑1, which compares well with the experimental ones. The potential energy curves, transition dipole moments, spectroscopic parameters, and transition probabilities reported in this paper can be considered to be very reliable. The results obtained here can be used as guidelines for detecting these transitions, in particular those that have not been measured in previous experiments or have not been observed in the Sun, comets, stellar atmospheres, dark interstellar clouds, and diffuse interstellar clouds.

Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Taiki

2011-03-01

A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

Ruin probability with claims modeled by a stationary ergodic stable process

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mikosch, T.; Samorodnitsky, G.

2000-01-01

For a random walk with negative drift we study the exceedance probability (ruin probability) of a high threshold. The steps of this walk (claim sizes) constitute a stationary ergodic stable process. We study how ruin occurs in this situation and evaluate the asymptotic behavior of the ruin

A comparator-hypothesis account of biased contingency detection.

Science.gov (United States)

Vadillo, Miguel A; Barberia, Itxaso

2018-02-12

Our ability to detect statistical dependencies between different events in the environment is strongly biased by the number of coincidences between them. Even when there is no true covariation between a cue and an outcome, if the marginal probability of either of them is high, people tend to perceive some degree of statistical contingency between both events. The present paper explores the ability of the Comparator Hypothesis to explain the general pattern of results observed in this literature. Our simulations show that this model can account for the biasing effects of the marginal probabilities of cues and outcomes. Furthermore, the overall fit of the Comparator Hypothesis to a sample of experimental conditions from previous studies is comparable to that of the popular Rescorla-Wagner model. These results should encourage researchers to further explore and put to the test the predictions of the Comparator Hypothesis in the domain of biased contingency detection. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of probability of defects in the disposal canisters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.-E.; Kuusela, P.

2011-06-01

This report presents a probability model for the reliability of the spent nuclear waste final disposal canister. Reliability means here that the welding of the canister lid has no critical defects from the long-term safety point of view. From the reliability point of view, both the reliability of the welding process (that no critical defects will be born) and the non-destructive testing (NDT) process (all critical defects will be detected) are equally important. In the probability model, critical defects in a weld were simplified into a few types. Also the possibility of human errors in the NDT process was taken into account in a simple manner. At this moment there is very little representative data to determine the reliability of welding and also the data on NDT is not well suited for the needs of this study. Therefore calculations presented here are based on expert judgements and on several assumptions that have not been verified yet. The Bayesian probability model shows the importance of the uncertainty in the estimation of the reliability parameters. The effect of uncertainty is that the probability distribution of the number of defective canisters becomes flat for larger numbers of canisters compared to the binomial probability distribution in case of known parameter values. In order to reduce the uncertainty, more information is needed from both the reliability of the welding and NDT processes. It would also be important to analyse the role of human factors in these processes since their role is not reflected in typical test data which is used to estimate 'normal process variation'.The reported model should be seen as a tool to quantify the roles of different methods and procedures in the weld inspection process. (orig.)

BER Analysis Using Beat Probability Method of 3D Optical CDMA Networks with Double Balanced Detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chih-Ta Yen

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This study proposes novel three-dimensional (3D matrices of wavelength/time/spatial code for code-division multiple-access (OCDMA networks, with a double balanced detection mechanism. We construct 3D carrier-hopping prime/modified prime (CHP/MP codes by extending a two-dimensional (2D CHP code integrated with a one-dimensional (1D MP code. The corresponding coder/decoder pairs were based on fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs and tunable optical delay lines integrated with splitters/combiners. System performance was enhanced by the low cross correlation properties of the 3D code designed to avoid the beat noise phenomenon. The CHP/MP code cardinality increased significantly compared to the CHP code under the same bit error rate (BER. The results indicate that the 3D code method can enhance system performance because both the beating terms and multiple-access interference (MAI were reduced by the double balanced detection mechanism. Additionally, the optical component can also be relaxed for high transmission scenery.

Fault Analysis and Detection in Microgrids with High PV Penetration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

El Khatib, Mohamed [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hernandez Alvidrez, Javier [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ellis, Abraham [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-05-01

In this report we focus on analyzing current-controlled PV inverters behaviour under faults in order to develop fault detection schemes for microgrids with high PV penetration. Inverter model suitable for steady state fault studies is presented and the impact of PV inverters on two protection elements is analyzed. The studied protection elements are superimposed quantities based directional element and negative sequence directional element. Additionally, several non-overcurrent fault detection schemes are discussed in this report for microgrids with high PV penetration. A detailed time-domain simulation study is presented to assess the performance of the presented fault detection schemes under different microgrid modes of operation.

Introduction to probability with R

CERN Document Server

Baclawski, Kenneth

2008-01-01

FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

Estimation of post-test probabilities by residents: Bayesian reasoning versus heuristics?

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Stacey; Phang, Sen Han; Schaefer, Jeffrey P; Ghali, William; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2014-08-01

Although the process of diagnosing invariably begins with a heuristic, we encourage our learners to support their diagnoses by analytical cognitive processes, such as Bayesian reasoning, in an attempt to mitigate the effects of heuristics on diagnosing. There are, however, limited data on the use ± impact of Bayesian reasoning on the accuracy of disease probability estimates. In this study our objective was to explore whether Internal Medicine residents use a Bayesian process to estimate disease probabilities by comparing their disease probability estimates to literature-derived Bayesian post-test probabilities. We gave 35 Internal Medicine residents four clinical vignettes in the form of a referral letter and asked them to estimate the post-test probability of the target condition in each case. We then compared these to literature-derived probabilities. For each vignette the estimated probability was significantly different from the literature-derived probability. For the two cases with low literature-derived probability our participants significantly overestimated the probability of these target conditions being the correct diagnosis, whereas for the two cases with high literature-derived probability the estimated probability was significantly lower than the calculated value. Our results suggest that residents generate inaccurate post-test probability estimates. Possible explanations for this include ineffective application of Bayesian reasoning, attribute substitution whereby a complex cognitive task is replaced by an easier one (e.g., a heuristic), or systematic rater bias, such as central tendency bias. Further studies are needed to identify the reasons for inaccuracy of disease probability estimates and to explore ways of improving accuracy.

Comparison of electrofishing techniques to detect larval lampreys in wadeable streams in the Pacific Northwest

Science.gov (United States)

Dunham, Jason B.; Chelgren, Nathan D.; Heck, Michael P.; Clark, Steven M.

2013-01-01

We evaluated the probability of detecting larval lampreys using different methods of backpack electrofishing in wadeable streams in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Our primary objective was to compare capture of lampreys using electrofishing with standard settings for salmon and trout to settings specifically adapted for capture of lampreys. Field work consisted of removal sampling by means of backpack electrofishing in 19 sites in streams representing a broad range of conditions in the region. Captures of lampreys at these sites were analyzed with a modified removal-sampling model and Bayesian estimation to measure the relative odds of capture using the lamprey-specific settings compared with the standard salmonid settings. We found that the odds of capture were 2.66 (95% credible interval, 0.87–78.18) times greater for the lamprey-specific settings relative to standard salmonid settings. When estimates of capture probability were applied to estimating the probabilities of detection, we found high (>0.80) detectability when the actual number of lampreys in a site was greater than 10 individuals and effort was at least two passes of electrofishing, regardless of the settings used. Further work is needed to evaluate key assumptions in our approach, including the evaluation of individual-specific capture probabilities and population closure. For now our results suggest comparable results are possible for detection of lampreys by using backpack electrofishing with salmonid- or lamprey-specific settings.

Direct inference of SNP heterozygosity rates and resolution of LOH detection.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaohong Li

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs have been increasingly utilized to investigate somatic genetic abnormalities in premalignancy and cancer. LOH is a common alteration observed during cancer development, and SNP assays have been used to identify LOH at specific chromosomal regions. The design of such studies requires consideration of the resolution for detecting LOH throughout the genome and identification of the number and location of SNPs required to detect genetic alterations in specific genomic regions. Our study evaluated SNP distribution patterns and used probability models, Monte Carlo simulation, and real human subject genotype data to investigate the relationships between the number of SNPs, SNP HET rates, and the sensitivity (resolution for detecting LOH. We report that variances of SNP heterozygosity rate in dbSNP are high for a large proportion of SNPs. Two statistical methods proposed for directly inferring SNP heterozygosity rates require much smaller sample sizes (intermediate sizes and are feasible for practical use in SNP selection or verification. Using HapMap data, we showed that a region of LOH greater than 200 kb can be reliably detected, with losses smaller than 50 kb having a substantially lower detection probability when using all SNPs currently in the HapMap database. Higher densities of SNPs may exist in certain local chromosomal regions that provide some opportunities for reliably detecting LOH of segment sizes smaller than 50 kb. These results suggest that the interpretation of the results from genome-wide scans for LOH using commercial arrays need to consider the relationships among inter-SNP distance, detection probability, and sample size for a specific study. New experimental designs for LOH studies would also benefit from considering the power of detection and sample sizes required to accomplish the proposed aims.

Probability of collective excited state decay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manykin, Eh.A.; Ozhovan, M.I.; Poluehktov, P.P.

1987-01-01

Decay mechanisms of condensed excited state formed of highly excited (Rydberg) atoms are considered, i.e. stability of so-called Rydberg substance is analyzed. It is shown that Auger recombination and radiation transitions are the basic processes. The corresponding probabilities are calculated and compared. It is ascertained that the ''Rydberg substance'' possesses macroscopic lifetime (several seconds) and in a sense it is metastable

The mediating effect of psychosocial factors on suicidal probability among adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Hur, Ji-Won; Kim, Won-Joong; Kim, Yong-Ku

2011-01-01

Suicidal probability is an actual tendency including negative self-evaluation, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, and hostility. The purpose of this study was to examine the role of psychosocial variances in the suicidal probability of adolescents, especially the role of mediating variance. This study investigated the mediating effects of psychosocial factors such as depression, anxiety, self-esteem, stress, and social support on the suicidal probability among 1,586 adolescents attending middle and high schools in the Kyunggi Province area of South Korea. The relationship between depression and anxiety/suicidal probability was mediated by both social resources and self-esteem. Furthermore, the influence of social resources was mediated by interpersonal and achievement stress as well as self-esteem. This study suggests that suicidal probability in adolescents has various relationships, including mediating relations, with several psychosocial factors. The interventions on suicidal probability in adolescents should focus on social factors as well as clinical symptoms.

Study on high power ultraviolet laser oil detection system

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Qi; Cui, Zihao; Bi, Zongjie; Zhang, Yanchao; Tian, Zhaoshuo; Fu, Shiyou

2018-03-01

Laser Induce Fluorescence (LIF) is a widely used new telemetry technology. It obtains information about oil spill and oil film thickness by analyzing the characteristics of stimulated fluorescence and has an important application in the field of rapid analysis of water composition. A set of LIF detection system for marine oil pollution is designed in this paper, which uses 355nm high-energy pulsed laser as the excitation light source. A high-sensitivity image intensifier is used in the detector. The upper machine sends a digital signal through a serial port to achieve nanoseconds range-gated width control for image intensifier. The target fluorescence spectrum image is displayed on the image intensifier by adjusting the delay time and the width of the pulse signal. The spectral image is coupled to CCD by lens imaging to achieve spectral display and data analysis function by computer. The system is used to detect the surface of the floating oil film in the distance of 25m to obtain the fluorescence spectra of different oil products respectively. The fluorescence spectra of oil products are obvious. The experimental results show that the system can realize high-precision long-range fluorescence detection and reflect the fluorescence characteristics of the target accurately, with broad application prospects in marine oil pollution identification and oil film thickness detection.

Voltage spike detection in high field superconducting accelerator magnets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Orris, D.F.; Carcagno, R.; Feher, S.; Makulski, A.; Pischalnikov, Y.M.; /Fermilab

2004-12-01

A measurement system for the detection of small magnetic flux changes in superconducting magnets, which are due to either mechanical motion of the conductor or flux jump, has been developed at Fermilab. These flux changes are detected as small amplitude, short duration voltage spikes, which are {approx}15mV in magnitude and lasts for {approx}30 {micro}sec. The detection system combines an analog circuit for the signal conditioning of two coil segments and a fast data acquisition system for digitizing the results, performing threshold detection, and storing the resultant data. The design of the spike detection system along with the modeling results and noise analysis will be presented. Data from tests of high field Nb{sub 3}Sn magnets at currents up to {approx}20KA will also be shown.