WorldWideScience

Sample records for high crash risk

  1. Time-varying Crash Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Feunoua, Bruno; Jeon, Yoontae

    We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on re...

  2. Time-varying Crash Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Feunoua, Bruno; Jeon, Yoontae

    We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly...... on return variance once we include market illiquidity as an economic variable in the model....

  3. Crash risk: How cycling flow can help explain crash data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dozza, Marco

    2016-05-12

    Crash databases are commonly queried to infer crash causation, prioritize countermeasures to prevent crashes, and evaluate safety systems. However, crash databases, which may be compiled from police and hospital records, alone cannot provide estimates of crash risk. Moreover, they fail to capture road user behavior before the crash. In Sweden, as in many other countries, crash databases are particularly sterile when it comes to bicycle crashes. In fact, not only are bicycle crashes underreported in police reports, they are also poorly documented in hospital reports. Nevertheless, these reports are irreplaceable sources of information, clearly highlighting the surprising prevalence of single-bicycle crashes and hinting at some cyclist behaviors, such as alcohol consumption, that may increase crash risk. In this study, we used exposure data from 11 roadside stations measuring cyclist flow in Gothenburg to help explain crash data and estimate risk. For instance, our results show that crash risk is greatest at night on weekends, and that this risk is larger for single-bicycle crashes than for crashes between a cyclist and another motorist. This result suggests that the population of night-cyclists on weekend nights is particularly prone to specific crash types, which may be influenced by specific contributing factors (such as alcohol), and may require specific countermeasures. Most importantly, our results demonstrate that detailed exposure data can help select, filter, aggregate, highlight, and normalize crash data to obtain a sharper view of the cycling safety problem, to achieve a more fine-tuned intervention.

  4. Effect of electronic stability control on automobile crash risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Charles

    2004-12-01

    Per vehicle crash involvement rates were compared for otherwise identical vehicle models with and without electronic stability control (ESC) systems. ESC was found to affect single-vehicle crashes to a greater extent than multiple-vehicle crashes, and crashes with fatal injuries to a greater extent than less severe crashes. Based on all police-reported crashes in 7 states over 2 years, ESC reduced single-vehicle crash involvement risk by approximately 41 percent (95 percent confidence limits 3348) and single-vehicle injury crash involvement risk by 41 percent (2752). This translates to an estimated 7 percent reduction in overall crash involvement risk (310) and a 9 percent reduction in overall injury crash involvement risk (314). Based on all fatal crashes in the United States over 3 years, ESC was found to have reduced single-vehicle fatal crash involvement risk by 56 percent (3968). This translates to an estimated 34 percent reduction in overall fatal crash involvement risk (2145).

  5. Syncope and Motor Vehicle Crash Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Numé, Anna-Karin; Gislason, Gunnar; Christiansen, Christine B

    2016-01-01

    IMPORTANCE: Syncope may have serious consequences for traffic safety. Current clinical guideline recommendations on driving following syncope are primarily based on expert consensus. OBJECTIVE: To identify whether there is excess risk of motor vehicle crashes among patients with syncope compared.......74-1.91) after adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic position, and relevant comorbidities and pharmacotherapy. Men had a relatively higher rate of motor vehicle crashes (RR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.79-2.03) than women (RR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.63-1.87). The excess risk of motor vehicle crashes persisted throughout...... identified 41 039 individuals with a first-time diagnosis of syncope from emergency department or hospital. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Rate of motor vehicle crashes (including nonfatal and fatal crashes), based on multivariate Poisson regression models, using the total Danish population as reference...

  6. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  7. Pedal cyclists, crash helmets and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, M

    1991-07-01

    As a rate per million kilometres travelled, the 'risk' of cycling appears to be high in relation to other forms of transport. Yet, in absolute numbers, there are far fewer cyclist deaths than pedestrian or motor vehicle occupant deaths, and most deaths and serious injuries to pedal cyclists are caused by other road users--principally motor vehicles. The large majority of pedal cyclist deaths are due to head injuries after collision with a motor vehicle. It is therefore commonly proposed that cyclists should wear crash helmets for their own 'safety'. Helmets may protect against fall injuries, but current models are not designed to withstand the impact of collisions with motor vehicles. Evidence for the benefit of pedal cyclists wearing helmets is limited: the existing studies cannot exclude the possibility of different risk-taking behaviour, either by cyclists or by motor vehicle drivers, for helmet wearers compared with non-wearers. A public health policy towards reducing pedal cyclist deaths should seek prevention of accidents, rather than protection from their consequences. Cycling in greater safety would reduce the 'risk' per kilometre travelled, but more cycling might not reduce total cyclist deaths or injuries--because of greater exposure. The 'risk' of cycling--the risk of injury or death--is a complex mix of exposure, 'danger' of the environment, and the perceived risk affecting our precautionary preventive behaviour.

  8. Effect of Accounting for Crash Severity on the Relationship between Mass Reduction and Crash Frequency and Risk per Crash

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Building Technology and Urban Systems Division. Energy Technologies Area

    2016-05-20

    Previous analyses have indicated that mass reduction is associated with an increase in crash frequency (crashes per VMT), but a decrease in fatality or casualty risk once a crash has occurred, across all types of light-duty vehicles. These results are counter-intuitive: one would expect that lighter, and perhaps smaller, vehicles have better handling and shorter braking distances, and thus should be able to avoid crashes that heavier vehicles cannot. And one would expect that heavier vehicles would have lower risk once a crash has occurred than lighter vehicles. However, these trends occur under several alternative regression model specifications. This report tests whether these results continue to hold after accounting for crash severity, by excluding crashes that result in relatively minor damage to the vehicle(s) involved in the crash. Excluding non-severe crashes from the initial LBNL Phase 2 and simultaneous two-stage regression models for the most part has little effect on the unexpected relationships observed in the baseline regression models. This finding suggests that other subtle differences in vehicles and/or their drivers, or perhaps biases in the data reported in state crash databases, are causing the unexpected results from the regression models.

  9. Evaluation of the predictability of real-time crash risk models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chengcheng; Liu, Pan; Wang, Wei

    2016-09-01

    The primary objective of the present study was to investigate the predictability of crash risk models that were developed using high-resolution real-time traffic data. More specifically the present study sought answers to the following questions: (a) how to evaluate the predictability of a real-time crash risk model; and (b) how to improve the predictability of a real-time crash risk model. The predictability is defined as the crash probability given the crash precursor identified by the crash risk model. An equation was derived based on the Bayes' theorem for estimating approximately the predictability of crash risk models. The estimated predictability was then used to quantitatively evaluate the effects of the threshold of crash precursors, the matched and unmatched case-control design, and the control-to-case ratio on the predictability of crash risk models. It was found that: (a) the predictability of a crash risk model can be measured as the product of prior crash probability and the ratio between sensitivity and false alarm rate; (b) there is a trade-off between the predictability and sensitivity of a real-time crash risk model; (c) for a given level of sensitivity, the predictability of the crash risk model that is developed using the unmatched case-controlled sample is always better than that of the model developed using the matched case-controlled sample; and (d) when the control-to-case ratio is beyond 4:1, the increase in control-to-case ratio does not lead to clear improvements in predictability.

  10. Crash risk analysis for Shanghai urban expressways: A Bayesian semi-parametric modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Rongjie; Wang, Xuesong; Yang, Kui; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2016-10-01

    Urban expressway systems have been developed rapidly in recent years in China; it has become one key part of the city roadway networks as carrying large traffic volume and providing high traveling speed. Along with the increase of traffic volume, traffic safety has become a major issue for Chinese urban expressways due to the frequent crash occurrence and the non-recurrent congestions caused by them. For the purpose of unveiling crash occurrence mechanisms and further developing Active Traffic Management (ATM) control strategies to improve traffic safety, this study developed disaggregate crash risk analysis models with loop detector traffic data and historical crash data. Bayesian random effects logistic regression models were utilized as it can account for the unobserved heterogeneity among crashes. However, previous crash risk analysis studies formulated random effects distributions in a parametric approach, which assigned them to follow normal distributions. Due to the limited information known about random effects distributions, subjective parametric setting may be incorrect. In order to construct more flexible and robust random effects to capture the unobserved heterogeneity, Bayesian semi-parametric inference technique was introduced to crash risk analysis in this study. Models with both inference techniques were developed for total crashes; semi-parametric models were proved to provide substantial better model goodness-of-fit, while the two models shared consistent coefficient estimations. Later on, Bayesian semi-parametric random effects logistic regression models were developed for weekday peak hour crashes, weekday non-peak hour crashes, and weekend non-peak hour crashes to investigate different crash occurrence scenarios. Significant factors that affect crash risk have been revealed and crash mechanisms have been concluded.

  11. Declines in fatal crashes of older drivers: changes in crash risk and survivability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Ivan; McCartt, Anne T

    2011-05-01

    Previous research has found that older driver fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver declined substantially in the United States during 1997-2006 and declined much faster than the rate for middle-age drivers. The current study examined whether the larger-than-expected decline for older drivers extended to nonfatal crashes and whether the decline in fatal crash risk reflects lower likelihood of crashing or an improvement in survivability of the crashes that occur. Trends in the rates of passenger vehicle crash involvements per 100,000 licensed drivers for drivers 70 and older (older drivers) were compared with trends for drivers ages 35-54 (middle-age drivers). Fatal crash information was obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System for years 1997-2008, and nonfatal crash information was obtained from 13 states with good reporting information for years 1997-2005. Analysis of covariance models compared trends in annual crash rates for older drivers relative to rates for middle-age drivers. Differences in crash survivability were measured in terms of the odds of fatality given a crash each year, and the historical trends for older versus middle-age drivers were compared. Fatal crash involvement rates declined for older and middle-age drivers during 1997-2008 (1997-2005 for the 13 state subsample), but the decline for drivers 70 and older far exceeded the decline for drivers ages 35-54 (37 versus 23 percent, nationally; 22 versus 1 percent, 13 states). Nonfatal injury crash involvement rates showed similarly larger-than-expected declines for older drivers in the 13 state subsample, but the differences were smaller and not statistically significant (27 percent reduction for older drivers versus 16 percent for middle-age drivers). Property-damage-only crash involvement rates declined for older drivers (10 percent) but increased for middle-age drivers (1 percent). In 1997, older drivers were 3.5 times more likely than middle-age drivers to die in police

  12. Characteristics of Crashes that Increase the Risk of Serious Injuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augenstein, Jeffrey; Perdeck, Elana; Stratton, James; Digges, Kennerly; Bahouth, George

    2003-01-01

    The advent of Automatic Crash Notification Systems (ACN) offers the possibility of immediately locating crashes and of determining the crash characteristics by analyzing the data transmitted from the vehicle. A challenge to EMS decision makers is to identify those crashes with serious injuries and deploy the appropriate rescue and treatment capabilities. The objective of this paper is to determine the crash characteristics that increase the risk of serious injury. Within this paper, regression models are presented which relate occupant, vehicle and impact characteristics to the probability of serious injury using the Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale Level (MAIS). The accuracy of proposed models were evaluated using National Automotive Sampling System/Crashworthiness Data System (NASS/CDS) and Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) case data. Cumulatively, the positive prediction rate of models identifying the likelihood of MAIS3 and higher injuries was 74.2%. Crash mode has a significant influence of injury risk. For crashes with 30 mph deltaV, the risk of MAIS3+ injury for each mode is 38.9%, 83.8%, 47.8% and 19.9% for frontal, near side, far side and rear impact crashes, respectively. In addition to deltaV, a number of crash variables were identified that assist in the accurate prediction of the probability of MAIS 3+ injury. These variables include occupant age, partial ejection, safety belt usage, intrusion near the occupant, and crashes with a narrow object. For frontal crashes, added crash variables include air bag deployment, steering wheel deformation, and multiple impact crashes. The quantitative relationship between each of these crash variables and injury risk has been determined and validated by regression analysis based on NASS/CDS and CIREN data. PMID:12941251

  13. Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dingus, Thomas A; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan

    2016-03-08

    The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk.

  14. Predicting crash risk and identifying crash precursors on Korean expressways using loop detector data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Ho-Chan; Kho, Seungyoung

    2016-03-01

    In order to improve traffic safety on expressways, it is important to develop proactive safety management strategies with consideration for segment types and traffic flow states because crash mechanisms have some differences by each condition. The primary objective of this study is to develop real-time crash risk prediction models for different segment types and traffic flow states on expressways. The mainline of expressways is divided into basic segment and ramp vicinity, and the traffic flow states are classified into uncongested and congested conditions. Also, Korean expressways have irregular intervals between loop detector stations. Therefore, we investigated on the effect and application of the detector stations at irregular intervals for the crash risk prediction on expressways. The most significant traffic variables were selected by conditional logistic regression analysis which could control confounding factors. Based on the selected traffic variables, separate models to predict crash risk were developed using genetic programming technique. The model estimation results showed that the traffic flow characteristics leading to crashes are differed by segment type and traffic flow state. Especially, the variables related to the intervals between detector stations had a significant influence on crash risk prediction under the uncongested condition. Finally, compared with the single model for all crashes and the logistic models used in previous studies, the proposed models showed higher prediction performance. The results of this study can be applied to develop more effective proactive safety management strategies for different segment types and traffic flow states on expressways with loop detector stations at irregular intervals.

  15. Externality of risk and crash severity at roundabouts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Stijn; Brijs, Tom; Nuyts, Erik; Wets, Geert

    2010-11-01

    The severity of 1491 crashes on 148 roundabouts in Flanders-Belgium was examined in order to investigate which factors might explain the severity of crashes or injuries and to relate these factors to the existing knowledge about contributing factors for injury severity in traffic. Logistic regression and hierarchical binomial logistic regression techniques were used. A clear externality of risk appeared to be present in the sense that vulnerable road user groups (pedestrians, bicyclists, moped riders and motorcyclists) are more severely affected than others. Fatalities or serious injuries in multiple-vehicle crashes for drivers of four-wheel vehicles are much rarer. Injury severity increases with higher age. Crashes at night and crashes outside built-up areas are more severe. Single-vehicle crashes seem to have more severe outcomes than multiple-vehicle crashes. However, systematic differences in the reporting rate of crashes are likely to exist and may have affected the stated results. Correlations with important, but unobserved variables like the impact speeds in the crashes might exist as well and could provide an alternative explanation for some results.

  16. Risk Factors Associated with Crash Severity on Low-Volume Rural Roads in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Kaplan, Sigal

    2014-01-01

    Safety on low-volume rural roads is drawing attention due to the high fatality and severe injury rates in comparison with high-volume roads and the increasing awareness of sustainable rural development among policy makers. This study analyzes the risk factors associated with crash severity on low....... The crashes were identified by map-matching the crash location to the geographic information system representing the national transport network and extracting the relevant crashes based on annual average traffic volumes. Injury severity was modeled by estimating a generalized ordered logit model due to its...... advantage in accommodating the ordered-response nature of severity while relaxing the proportional odds assumption. Model estimates and pseudoelasticities show that aggravated crash injury severity is significantly associated with (1) alcohol and failure to wear seatbelts, (2) involvement of vulnerable road...

  17. A method for predicting the risk of virtual crashes in a simulated driving task using behavioural and subjective drowsiness measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murata, Atsuo; Naitoh, Kensuke; Karwowski, Waldemar

    2017-05-01

    This study proposed a procedure for predicting the point in time with high risk of virtual crash using a control chart methodology for behavioural measures during a simulated driving task. Tracking error, human back pressure, sitting pressure and horizontal and vertical neck bending angles were measured during the simulated driving task. The time with a high risk of a virtual crash occurred in 9 out of 10 participants. The time interval between the successfully detected point in time with high risk of virtual crash and the point in time of virtual crash ranged from 80 to 324 s. The proposed procedure for predicting the point in time with a high risk of a crash is promising for warning drivers of the state of high risk of crash. Practitioner Summary: Many fatal crashes occur due to drowsy driving. We proposed a method to predict the point in time with high risk of virtual crash before such a virtual crash occurs. This is done using behavioural measures during a simulated driving task. The effectiveness of the method is also demonstrated.

  18. Assessing the Residual Teen Crash Risk Factors after Graduated Drivers License Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thor, Craig P.; Gabler, Hampton C.

    2010-01-01

    Graduated driving licensing laws are now in place in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. However, despite stricter supervised driving requirements, restrictions on the number of passengers, and earlier nighttime driving curfews, teen drivers continue to be at a higher crash risk than the adult driving population. The National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (NMVCCS) dataset was examined to compare and contrast the primary crash factors for teen drivers (16–18 years. old) and adult drivers (35–55 years. old) in the GDL era. It is was found that teen drivers were 2.40 (CI:1.19–4.85) times more likely to be in a control loss crash and 1.88 (CI:1.12–3.15) times more likely to be in a road departure crash relative adult drivers. Furthermore, teen drivers who were in a crash were 1.73 (CI:1.25–2.38) times more likely to be distracted, 1.83 (CI: 1.38–2.43) times more likely to be driving inappropriately, and 1.47 (CI:1.30–1.67) times more likely to be inadequately aware of their driving environment than adults. Passengers and aggressive driving also contributed significantly to the heightened crash risk for teen drivers, after GDL implementation. This study emphasizes that while the number of teen crashes has decreased with GDL, the relative crash risk for certain experience related causative factors and pre-crash scenarios remain high for teen drivers after GDL implementation nationwide. PMID:21050612

  19. Prescription medicines and the risk of road traffic crashes: a French registry-based study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludivine Orriols

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In recent decades, increased attention has been focused on the impact of disabilities and medicinal drug use on road safety. The aim of our study was to investigate the association between prescription medicines and the risk of road traffic crashes, and estimate the attributable fraction. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We extracted and matched data from three French nationwide databases: the national health care insurance database, police reports, and the national police database of injurious crashes. Drivers identified by their national health care number involved in an injurious crash in France, between July 2005 and May 2008, were included in the study. Medicines were grouped according to the four risk levels of the French classification system (from 0 [no risk] to 3 [high risk]. We included 72,685 drivers involved in injurious crashes. Users of level 2 (odds ratio [OR]  = 1.31 [1.24-1.40] and level 3 (OR  = 1.25 [1.12-1.40] prescription medicines were at higher risk of being responsible for a crash. The association remained after adjustment for the presence of a long-term chronic disease. The fraction of road traffic crashes attributable to levels 2 and 3 medications was 3.3% [2.7%-3.9%]. A within-person case-crossover analysis showed that drivers were more likely to be exposed to level 3 medications on the crash day than on a control day, 30 days earlier (OR  = 1.15 [1.05-1.27]. CONCLUSION: The use of prescription medicines is associated with a substantial number of road traffic crashes in France. In light of the results, warning messages appear to be relevant for level 2 and 3 medications and questionable for level 1 medications. A follow-up study is needed to evaluate the impact of the warning labeling system on road traffic crash prevention.

  20. Sawtooth crashes at high beta on JET

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alper, B.; Huysmans, G.T.A.; Sips, A.C.C. [Commission of the European Communities, Abingdon (United Kingdom). JET Joint Undertaking; Nave, M.F.F. [Universidade Tecnica, Lisbon (Portugal). Inst. Superior Tecnico

    1994-07-01

    The sawtooth crashes on JET display features which depend on beta. The main observation is a transient bulging of flux surfaces (duration inferior to 30 microsec.), which is predominantly on the low field side and extends to larger radii as beta increases. This phenomenon reaches the plasma boundary when beta{sub N} exceeds 0.5 and in these cases is followed by an ELM within 50 microsec. These sawtooth/ELM events limit plasma performance. Modelling of mode coupling shows qualitative agreement between observations of the structure of the sawtooth precursor and the calculated internal kink mode at high beta. (authors). 6 refs., 5 figs.

  1. THE ROLE OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY DISCLOSURE TOWARD COMPANY STOCK PRICE CRASH RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Handiyono M.Y.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the influence of corporate social responsibility disclosure to company stock price crash risk. If socially responsible companies are committed to high standards of information transparency and do not hide bad news, they will have a low risk of crash. However, if the manager reports CSR to distract the stakeholder from bad news, the CSR will be associated with a high risk of the company stock crash. The study was conducted at Indonesian manufacturing companies registered on the IDX (BEI for the 2010-2015 period Hypothesis testing technique used a multiple regression analysis. The results showed that activities of the corporate social responsibility disclosure by the company did not have a significant relationship to the risk of the company stock price crash. This study also found that companies that conduct and report social responsibility activities simultaneously have a low risk of crashes on their company's stock price but cannot prove the relationship between the two. The implication is that social accountability reports in Indonesia are still limited to reports only and have not been considered as anything that can contribute to add value to the company or that may prevent the company from unethical behavior.

  2. Modelling Drivers' Behaviour as a Crash Risk Reduction Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyyed Mohammad Sadat Hoseini

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The evermore widespread use of microscopic traffic simulationin the analysis of road systems has refocused attention onsub models, including car-following and lane-changing models.In this research a microscopic model is developed whichcombines car-following and lane-changing models and describesdriver behaviour as a crash risk reduction process ofdrivers. This model has been simulated by a cellular automatasimulator and compared with the real data. It has been shownthat there is no reason to consider the model invalid for drivers'behaviour in the basic segments of freeways in Iran, duringnot-congested conditions. Considering that uncertainty of positionof vehicles is caused by their acceleration or deceleration, aprobability function is calibrated for calculating the presenceprobability of vehicles in their feasible cells. Multiplying thepresence probability and impact of crash, crash risk of cells iscalculated. As an application of the model, it has been shownthat when difference between vehicles brake deceleration increases,the total crash risk increases.

  3. Urban sprawl as a risk factor in motor vehicle crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, Reid; Hamidi, Shima; Grace, James B.

    2016-01-01

    A decade ago, compactness/sprawl indices were developed for metropolitan areas and counties which have been widely used in health and other research. In this study, we first update the original county index to 2010, then develop a refined index that accounts for more relevant factors, and finally seek to test the relationship between sprawl and traffic crash rates using structural equation modelling. Controlling for covariates, we find that sprawl is associated with significantly higher direct and indirect effects on fatal crash rates. The direct effect is likely due to the higher traffic speeds in sprawling areas, and the indirect effect is due to greater vehicle miles driven in such areas. Conversely, sprawl has negative direct relationships with total crashes and non-fatal injury crashes, and these offset (and sometimes overwhelm) the positive indirect effects of sprawl on both types of crashes through the mediating effect of increased vehicle miles driven. The most likely explanation is the greater prevalence of fender benders and other minor accidents in the low speed, high conflict traffic environments of compact areas, negating the lower vehicle miles travelled per capita in such areas.

  4. Evaluation of rear-end crash risk at work zone using work zone traffic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian

    2011-07-01

    This paper aims to evaluate the rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area and merging area, as well as analyze the impacts of contributing factors by using work zone traffic data. Here, the rear-end crash risk is referred to as the probability that a vehicle is involved in a rear-end crash accident. The deceleration rate to avoid the crash (DRAC) is used in measuring rear-end crash risk. Based on work zone traffic data in Singapore, three rear-end crash risk models are developed to examine the relationship between rear-end crash risk at activity area and its contributing factors. The fourth rear-end crash risk model is developed to examine the effects of merging behavior on crash risk at merging area. The ANOVA results show that the rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area is statistically different from lane positions. Model results indicate that rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area increases with heavy vehicle percentage and lane traffic flow rate. An interesting finding is that the lane closer to work zone is strongly associated with higher rear-end crash risk. A truck has much higher probability involving in a rear-end accident than a car. Further, the expressway work zone activity area is found to have much larger crash risk than arterial work zone activity area. The merging choice has the dominated effect on risk reduction, suggesting that encouraging vehicles to merge early may be the most effective method to reduce rear-end crash risk at work zone merging area.

  5. Risk Factors Associated with Crash Severity on Low-Volume Rural Roads in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Kaplan, Sigal

    2014-01-01

    Safety on low-volume rural roads is drawing attention due to the high fatality and severe injury rates in comparison with high-volume roads and the increasing awareness of sustainable rural development among policy makers. This study analyzes the risk factors associated with crash severity on low......-volume rural roads, including crash characteristics, driver attributes and behavior, vehicle type, road features, environmental conditions, distance from the nearest hospital, and zone rurality degree. The data consist of a set of crashes occurred on low-volume rural roads in Denmark between 2007 and 2011...... users (i.e., pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists), (3) involvement of heavy vehicles, (4) speed limits of 80–90 km/h, (5) longer distance to the nearest hospital, and (6) peripheral rural regions....

  6. Disability risk in pediatric motor vehicle crash occupants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doud, Andrea N; Schoell, Samantha L; Weaver, Ashley A; Talton, Jennifer W; Barnard, Ryan T; Petty, John K; Stitzel, Joel D

    2017-05-01

    Mortality rates among children in motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) are typically low; however, nonfatal injuries can vary in severity by imposing differing levels of short- and long-term disability. To better discriminate the severity of nonfatal MVC injuries, a pediatric-specific disability risk (DR) metric was created. The National Automotive Sampling System 2000 to 2011 was used to define the top 95% most common Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ injuries among pediatric MVC occupants. Functional Independence Measure scores were abstracted from the National Trauma Data Bank 2002 to 2006. Multiple imputation was used to account for missing data. The DR and coinjury-adjusted DR (DRMAIS) of the most common AIS 2+ MVC-induced injuries were calculated for 7-year-old to 18-year-old children by determining the proportion of those disabled after an injury to those sustaining the injury. DR and DRMAIS values ranged from 0 to 1, representing 0% to 100% DR. The mean DR and DRMAIS of all injuries were 0.290 and 0.191, respectively. DR and DRMAIS were greatest for injuries to the head (DR, 0.340; DRMAIS, 0.279), thorax (DR, 0.320; DRMAIS, 0.233), and spine (DR, 0.315; DRMAIS, 0.200). The mean DR and DRMAIS increased with increasing AIS severity but there was significant variation and overlapping values across AIS severity levels. Comparison of DRMAIS to coinjury-adjusted mortality risk (MRMAIS) revealed that among 118 injuries with MRMAIS of 0.000, DRMAIS ranged from 0.000 to 0.429. Incorporation of DR metrics into injury severity metrics may improve the ability to distinguish between the severity of different nonfatal injuries. This is especially crucial in the pediatric population where permanent disability can result in a high number of years lost due to disability. The accuracy of such severity metrics is crucial to the success of pediatric triage algorithms such as Advanced Automatic Crash Notification algorithms. Epidemiologic/prognostic study, level III.

  7. A Hybrid Latent Class Analysis Modeling Approach to Analyze Urban Expressway Crash Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Rongjie; Wang, Xuesong; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2017-02-07

    Crash risk analysis is rising as a hot research topic as it could reveal the relationships between traffic flow characteristics and crash occurrence risk, which is beneficial to understand crash mechanisms which would further refine the design of Active Traffic Management System (ATMS). However, the majority of the current crash risk analysis studies have ignored the impact of geometric characteristics on crash risk estimation while recent studies proved that crash occurrence risk was affected by the various alignment features. In this study, a hybrid Latent Class Analysis (LCA) modeling approach was proposed to account for the heterogeneous effects of geometric characteristics. Crashes were first segmented into homogenous subgroups, where the optimal number of latent classes was identified based on bootstrap likelihood ratio tests. Then, separate crash risk analysis models were developed using Bayesian random parameter logistic regression technique; data from Shanghai urban expressway system were employed to conduct the empirical study. Different crash risk contributing factors were unveiled by the hybrid LCA approach and better model goodness-of-fit was obtained while comparing to an overall total crash model. Finally, benefits of the proposed hybrid LCA approach were discussed.

  8. Analysis of work zone rear-end crash risk for different vehicle-following patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Jinxian; Meng, Qiang; Yan, Xuedong

    2014-11-01

    This study evaluates rear-end crash risk associated with work zone operations for four different vehicle-following patterns: car-car, car-truck, truck-car and truck-truck. The deceleration rate to avoid the crash (DRAC) is adopted to measure work zone rear-end crash risk. Results show that the car-truck following pattern has the largest rear-end crash risk, followed by truck-truck, truck-car and car-car patterns. This implies that it is more likely for a car which is following a truck to be involved in a rear-end crash accident. The statistical test results further confirm that rear-end crash risk is statistically different between any two of the four patterns. We therefore develop a rear-end crash risk model for each vehicle-following pattern in order to examine the relationship between rear-end crash risk and its influencing factors, including lane position, the heavy vehicle percentage, lane traffic flow and work intensity which can be characterized by the number of lane reductions, the number of workers and the amount of equipment at the work zone site. The model results show that, for each pattern, there will be a greater rear-end crash risk in the following situations: (i) heavy work intensity; (ii) the lane adjacent to work zone; (iii) a higher proportion of heavy vehicles and (iv) greater traffic flow. However, the effects of these factors on rear-end crash risk are found to vary according to the vehicle-following patterns. Compared with the car-car pattern, lane position has less effect on rear-end crash risk in the car-truck pattern. The effect of work intensity on rear-end crash risk is also reduced in the truck-car pattern. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Chain-reaction crash on a highway in high visibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagatani, Takashi

    2016-05-01

    We study the chain-reaction crash (multiple-vehicle collision) in high-visibility condition on a highway. In the traffic situation, drivers control their vehicles by both gear-changing and braking. Drivers change the gears according to the headway and brake according to taillights of the forward vehicle. We investigate whether or not the first collision induces the chain-reaction crash numerically. It is shown that dynamic transitions occur from no collisions, through a single collision, to multiple collisions with decreasing the headway. Also, we find that the dynamic transition occurs from the finite chain reaction to the infinite chain reaction when the headway is less than the critical value. We compare the multiple-vehicle collisions in high-visibility with that in low-visibility. We derive the transition points and the region maps for the chain-reaction crash in high visibility.

  10. Crash risk analysis during fog conditions using real-time traffic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yina; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung

    2017-05-30

    This research investigates the changes of traffic characteristics and crash risks during fog conditions. Using real-time traffic flow and weather data at two regions in Florida, the traffic patterns at the fog duration were compared to the traffic patterns at the clear duration. It was found that the average 5-min speed and the average 5-min volume were prone to decreasing during fog. Based on previous studies, a "Crash Risk Increase Indicator (CRII)" was proposed to explore the differences of crash risk between fog and clear conditions. A binary logistic regression model was applied to link the increase of crash risks with traffic flow characteristics. The results suggested that the proposed indicator worked well in evaluating the increase of crash risk under fog condition. It was indicated that the crash risk was prone to increase at ramp vicinities in fog conditions. Also, the average 5-min volume during fog and the lane position are important factors for crash risk increase. The differences between the regions were also explored in this study. The results indicated that the locations with heavier traffic or locations at the lanes that were closest to the median in Region 2 were more likely to observe an increase in crash risks in fog conditions. It is expected that the proposed indicator can help identify the dangerous traffic status under fog conditions and then proper ITS technologies can be implemented to enhance traffic safety when the visibility declines. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. High-frequency Trading, Algorithmic Finance, and the Flash Crash

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borch, Christian

    2016-01-01

    The Flash Crash of 6 May 2010 has an interesting status in discussions of high-frequency trading, i.e. fully automated, superfast computerized trading: it is invoked both as an important illustration of how this field of algorithmic trading operates and, more often, as an example of how fully aut...

  12. The Heavy Vehicle Study: a case-control study investigating risk factors for crash in long distance heavy vehicle drivers in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grunstein Ron R

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Heavy vehicle transportation continues to grow internationally; yet crash rates are high, and the risk of injury and death extends to all road users. The work environment for the heavy vehicle driver poses many challenges; conditions such as scheduling and payment are proposed risk factors for crash, yet the precise measure of these needs quantifying. Other risk factors such as sleep disorders including obstructive sleep apnoea have been shown to increase crash risk in motor vehicle drivers however the risk of heavy vehicle crash from this and related health conditions needs detailed investigation. Methods and Design The proposed case control study will recruit 1034 long distance heavy vehicle drivers: 517 who have crashed and 517 who have not. All participants will be interviewed at length, regarding their driving and crash history, typical workloads, scheduling and payment, trip history over several days, sleep patterns, health, and substance use. All participants will have administered a nasal flow monitor for the detection of obstructive sleep apnoea. Discussion Significant attention has been paid to the enforcement of legislation aiming to deter problems such as excess loading, speeding and substance use; however, there is inconclusive evidence as to the direction and strength of associations of many other postulated risk factors for heavy vehicle crashes. The influence of factors such as remuneration and scheduling on crash risk is unclear; so too the association between sleep apnoea and the risk of heavy vehicle driver crash. Contributory factors such as sleep quality and quantity, body mass and health status will be investigated. Quantifying the measure of effect of these factors on the heavy vehicle driver will inform policy development that aims toward safer driving practices and reduction in heavy vehicle crash; protecting the lives of many on the road network.

  13. Estimating likelihood of future crashes for crash-prone drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subasish Das

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available At-fault crash-prone drivers are usually considered as the high risk group for possible future incidents or crashes. In Louisiana, 34% of crashes are repeatedly committed by the at-fault crash-prone drivers who represent only 5% of the total licensed drivers in the state. This research has conducted an exploratory data analysis based on the driver faultiness and proneness. The objective of this study is to develop a crash prediction model to estimate the likelihood of future crashes for the at-fault drivers. The logistic regression method is used by employing eight years' traffic crash data (2004–2011 in Louisiana. Crash predictors such as the driver's crash involvement, crash and road characteristics, human factors, collision type, and environmental factors are considered in the model. The at-fault and not-at-fault status of the crashes are used as the response variable. The developed model has identified a few important variables, and is used to correctly classify at-fault crashes up to 62.40% with a specificity of 77.25%. This model can identify as many as 62.40% of the crash incidence of at-fault drivers in the upcoming year. Traffic agencies can use the model for monitoring the performance of an at-fault crash-prone drivers and making roadway improvements meant to reduce crash proneness. From the findings, it is recommended that crash-prone drivers should be targeted for special safety programs regularly through education and regulations.

  14. The Impact of Driver Inattention on Near-Crash/Crash Risk: An Analysis Using the 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study Data

    OpenAIRE

    Klauer, Sheila G.; Dingus, Thomas A.; Neale, Vicki L.; Sudweeks, Jeremy D.; Ramsey, D J

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this report was to conduct in-depth analyses of driver inattention using the driving data collected in the 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study. An additional database of baseline epochs was reduced from the raw data and used in conjunction with the crash and near-crash data identified as part of the original 100-Car Study to account for exposure and establish near-crash/crash risk. The analyses presented in this report are able to establish direct relationships between driving b...

  15. DEVELOPMENT OF A CRASH RISK PROBABILITY MODEL FOR FREEWAYS BASED ON HAZARD PREDICTION INDEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Mahmud Hasan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a method for the identification of hazardous situations on the freeways. The hazard identification is done using a crash risk probability model. For this study, about 18 km long section of Eastern Freeway in Melbourne (Australia is selected as a test bed. Two categories of data i.e. traffic and accident record data are used for the analysis and modelling. In developing the crash risk probability model, Hazard Prediction Index is formulated in this study by the differences of traffic parameters with threshold values. Seven different prediction indices are examined and the best one is selected as crash risk probability model based on prediction error minimisation.

  16. Quantifying the role of risk-taking behaviour in causation of serious road crash-related injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Cathy; McClure, Rod

    2004-05-01

    This study was designed to quantify the increased risk of road crash-related injury, which can be attributed to risk-taking behaviour. A case-control study was conducted to compare motor vehicle drivers (car and bike) who had been hospitalised for injuries following crashes with population-based controls. Cases were recruited prospectively over 12 months and controls were randomly selected from license holders (car and bike) living in the same geographical location as cases. A self-administered questionnaire was used to ascertain participants' driving behaviour, general risk-taking behaviour and selected demographic characteristics. After adjusting for demographic variables, number of years of driving and total distance driven per week, logistic regression analysis showed that a high risk acceptance was associated with an eight-fold increased risk of having a crash that resulted in serious injury (OR 7.8, 95% CI 4.2-15.8). The findings of this study support the suggestion that certain host factors increase the risk of crash-related serious injury. There would appear to be a reasonable argument for persisting with injury prevention programmes, which concentrate on host as well as environment risk factor reduction.

  17. Young driver risky behaviour and predictors of crash risk in Australia, New Zealand and Colombia: Same but different?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Parker, Bridie; Oviedo-Trespalacios, Oscar

    2017-02-01

    Young drivers remain overrepresented in road crashes around the world, with road injury the leading cause of death among adolescents. In addition, the majority of road traffic crashes, fatalities and injuries occur in low- and middle-income countries. All young drivers are at risk due to a breadth of age- and inexperience-related factors; however it is well recognised that young drivers may also intentionally engage in risky driving behaviours which increase their crash risk. The aim of this paper is to examine the self-reported risky driving behaviour of young drivers in Australia, New Zealand (high-income countries), and Colombia (middle-income country), and to explore the utility of a crash risk assessment model in these three countries. Young drivers aged 16-25 years completed the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale (BYNDS), in addition to self-reporting crash involvement and driving offences. A hierarchical segmentation analysis via decision trees was used to study the relationship between self-reported crashes and risky driving. Young drivers in Colombia reported more risky driving than young drivers in New Zealand, and considerably more risky driving than young drivers in Australia. Significant differences among and across countries in individual BYNDS items were found, and 23.5% of all participants reported they had been involved in a road crash. Handheld mobile phone usage was the strongest predictor of crashes, followed by driving after drinking alcohol, and carrying friends as passengers. Country of origin predicted mobile phone usage, with New Zealand and Colombia grouped in the same decision tree branch which implies no significant differences in the behaviour between these countries. Despite cultural differences in licensing programs and enforcement, young drivers reported engaging in a similar breadth of risky behaviours. Road crashes were explained by mobile phone usage, drink driving and driving with passengers, suggesting interventions should

  18. Modeling the effect of operator and passenger characteristics on the fatality risk of motorcycle crashes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Tavakoli Kashani

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND:In Iran more than 25% of crash fatalities belong to motorcycle operators and passengers in the recent years, from which about 20% are related to passenger fatalities. METHODS: The aim of this study was to investigate the motorcycle operator and passenger characteristics as well as other contributory factors that may affect the fatality risk of motorcyclists involved in traffic crashes. To this end, motorcycle crash data between 2009 and 2012 was extracted from Iran traffic crash database and a logistic regression analysis was performed to obtain odds ratio estimates for each of the study variables. RESULTS: The fatality risk of motorcyclists has a direct relationship with the number of pillion passengers carried. Results also indicate that the amount of increase in the likelihood of having a fatality in a motorcycles crash is considerably higher when the operator is accompanied by a male passenger of the same age. Furthermore, results showed that if the crash is occurred in the darkness, on curves, in rural areas and on highways, then the crash would be more likely to be fatal. Moreover, the head-on collisions, older operators, unlicensed operators and not using a safety helmet were found to increase the likelihood of a fatality in a motorcycle crash. CONCLUSIONS: Preventative measures such as, imposing stricter rules regarding safety helmet usage and confining the number of pillion passengers to one, might be implemented to reduce the fatality risk in motorcycle crashes. In addition, more appropriate infrastructures for penalizing offending motorcyclists could also reduce the frequency of law violations such as not wearing helmet or riding without motorcycle license, which in turn, would result into a reduction in the fatality risk of motorcycle crashes

  19. Missing Just 1 Hour of Sleep May Double Drivers' Crash Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skip navigation U.S. National Library of Medicine Menu ... Double Drivers' Crash Risk Too little shut-eye can equal alcohol in terms of impairment behind the wheel, traffic safety group warns To use ...

  20. Self-harm and risk of motor vehicle crashes among young drivers : findings from the DRIVE Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martiniuk, Alexandra L. C.; Ivers, Rebecca Q.; Glozier, Nick; Patton, George C.; Lam, Lawrence T.; Boufous, Soufiane; Senserrick, Teresa; Williamson, Ann; Stevenson, Mark; Norton, Robyn

    2009-01-01

    Background: Some motor vehicle crashes, particularly single-vehicle crashes, may result from intentional self-harm. We conducted a prospective cohort study to assess the risk that intentional self-harm poses for motor vehicle crashes among young drivers. Methods: We prospectively linked survey data

  1. Headrest position during normal driving: implication to neck injury risk in rear crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viano, D C; Gargan, M F

    1996-11-01

    The gap and relative height of headrest behind drivers were determined for 1915 vehicles approaching an intersection on a two lane road. Vehicle type and headrest adjustment were also evaluated using film of normal driving taken by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Only 10% of drivers had headrests in the most favorable position to prevent neck extension during a rearend crash. 73% of cars had adjustable headrests, but only a quarter were placed in the up position. 83% of the adjustable headrests could have been raised to better protect the driver. Hyge sled tests were run to determine biomechanical responses for the various conditions observed in normal driving. This included three headrest heights and three gaps behind the head. Neck extension from the Hybrid III dummy was normalized to the response for a high, close headrest, and injury risk was assumed to be proportional to neck extension. The current driving situation has a relative injury risk of 3.4 in rearend crashes, compared to 1.0 for the favorable condition. If all adjustable headrests were placed in the up position, the relative risk would be lowered to 2.4, a 28.3% reduction in whiplash injury risk. Public education and vehicle design should address the importance of proper headrest placement for driving safety.

  2. Driving risk assessment using near-crash database through data mining of tree-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianqiang; Zheng, Yang; Li, Xiaofei; Yu, Chenfei; Kodaka, Kenji; Li, Keqiang

    2015-11-01

    This paper considers a comprehensive naturalistic driving experiment to collect driving data under potential threats on actual Chinese roads. Using acquired real-world naturalistic driving data, a near-crash database is built, which contains vehicle status, potential crash objects, driving environment and road types, weather condition, and driver information and actions. The aims of this study are summarized into two aspects: (1) to cluster different driving-risk levels involved in near-crashes, and (2) to unveil the factors that greatly influence the driving-risk level. A novel method to quantify the driving-risk level of a near-crash scenario is proposed by clustering the braking process characteristics, namely maximum deceleration, average deceleration, and percentage reduction in vehicle kinetic energy. A classification and regression tree (CART) is employed to unveil the relationship among driving risk, driver/vehicle characteristics, and road environment. The results indicate that the velocity when braking, triggering factors, potential object type, and potential crash type exerted the greatest influence on the driving-risk levels in near-crashes.

  3. Data development technical support document for the aircraft crash risk analysis methodology (ACRAM) standard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kimura, C.Y.; Glaser, R.E.; Mensing, R.W.; Lin, T.; Haley, T.A.; Barto, A.B.; Stutzke, M.A.

    1996-08-01

    The Aircraft Crash Risk Analysis Methodology (ACRAM) Panel has been formed by the US Department of Energy Office of Defense Programs (DOE/DP) for the purpose of developing a standard methodology for determining the risk from aircraft crashes onto DOE ground facilities. In order to accomplish this goal, the ACRAM panel has been divided into four teams, the data development team, the model evaluation team, the structural analysis team, and the consequence team. Each team, consisting of at least one member of the ACRAM plus additional DOE and DOE contractor personnel, specializes in the development of the methodology assigned to that team. This report documents the work performed by the data development team and provides the technical basis for the data used by the ACRAM Standard for determining the aircraft crash frequency. This report should be used to provide the generic data needed to calculate the aircraft crash frequency into the facility under consideration as part of the process for determining the aircraft crash risk to ground facilities as given by the DOE Standard Aircraft Crash Risk Assessment Methodology (ACRAM). Some broad guidance is presented on how to obtain the needed site-specific and facility specific data but this data is not provided by this document.

  4. Assessment of methodologies for analysis of the dungeness B accidental aircraft crash risk.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Hansen, Clifford W.

    2010-09-01

    The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) has requested Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to review the aircraft crash methodology for nuclear facilities that are being used in the United Kingdom (UK). The scope of the work included a review of one method utilized in the UK for assessing the potential for accidental airplane crashes into nuclear facilities (Task 1) and a comparison of the UK methodology against similar International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), United States (US) Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) methods (Task 2). Based on the conclusions from Tasks 1 and 2, an additional Task 3 would provide an assessment of a site-specific crash frequency for the Dungeness B facility using one of the other methodologies. This report documents the results of Task 2. The comparison of the different methods was performed for the three primary contributors to aircraft crash risk at the Dungeness B site: airfield related crashes, crashes below airways, and background crashes. The methods and data specified in each methodology were compared for each of these risk contributors, differences in the methodologies were identified, and the importance of these differences was qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. The bases for each of the methods and the data used were considered in this assessment process. A comparison of the treatment of the consequences of the aircraft crashes was not included in this assessment because the frequency of crashes into critical structures is currently low based on the existing Dungeness B assessment. Although the comparison found substantial differences between the UK and the three alternative methodologies (IAEA, NRC, and DOE) this assessment concludes that use of any of these alternative methodologies would not change the conclusions reached for the Dungeness B site. Performance of Task 3 is thus not recommended.

  5. Impact of an opioid risk reduction initiative on motor vehicle crash risk among chronic opioid therapy patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Ryan N; Walker, Rod L; Shortreed, Susan M; Dublin, Sascha; Saunders, Kathleen; Ludman, Evette J; Von Korff, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Although prescription opioids have been associated with higher motor vehicle crash (MVC) risk, it is unknown whether health system initiatives to better manage chronic opioid therapy (COT) can reduce MVC risk at the population level. We conducted an interrupted time series population-level cohort study at Group Health (GH), between January 2006 and September 2014, comparing MVC risk among COT patients who were GH members receiving care in either group practice or contracted care settings. Group practice COT risk reduction initiatives were implemented in two phases: (1) altered prescribing expectations and (2) multifaceted initiatives. These initiatives did not exist in the contracted care network. We compared the adjusted quarterly rate of MVC between group practice and contracted care patients over time using a modified Poisson regression model for a binary outcome. A total of 32 691 COT patients (27.4% from contracted care) met eligibility criteria and experienced a total of 1956 MVCs during study follow-up (mean, 8.1 quarters per person), of which 810 were serious injury crashes. Crash rates were not significantly different between the patient groups within any of the time periods. Analyses stratified by concurrent prescription of a sedative hypnotic or benzodiazepine found no significant difference between the group practice and contracted care patients. There was a modest elevation of MVC risk for high-dose patients relative to former COT patients who stopped receiving opioids. The risk of MVC was not mitigated in a large cohort of COT patients exposed to a health plan policy initiative that substantially lowered mean opioid dose. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Using medico-legal data to investigate fatal older road user crash circumstances and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koppel, Sjaan; Bugeja, Lyndal; Smith, Daisy; Lamb, Ashne; Dwyer, Jeremy; Fitzharris, Michael; Newstead, Stuart; D'Elia, Angelo; Charlton, Judith

    2017-07-31

    This study used medico-legal data to investigate fatal older road user (ORU, aged 65 years and older) crash circumstances and risk factors relating to 4 key components of the Safe System approach (e.g., roads and roadsides, vehicles, road users, and speeds) to identify areas of priority for targeted prevention activity. The Coroners' Court of Victoria's (CCOV) Surveillance Database was searched to identify and describe the frequency and rate per 100,000 population of fatal ORU crashes in the Australian state of Victoria for 2013-2014. Information relating to the deceased ORU, crash characteristics and circumstances, and risk factors was extracted and analyzed. One hundred and thirty-eight unintentional fatal ORU crashes were identified in the CCOV Surveillance Database. Of these fatal ORU crashes, most involved older drivers (44%), followed by older pedestrians (32%), older passengers (17%), older pedal cyclists (4%), older motorcyclists (1%), and older mobility scooter users (1%). The average annual rate of fatal ORU crashes per 100,000 population was 8.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.0-10.2). In terms of the crash characteristics and circumstances, most fatal ORU crashes involved a counterpart (98%), of which the majority were passenger cars (50%) or fixed/stationary objects (25%), including trees (46%) or embankments (23%). In addition, most fatal ORU crashes occurred close to home (73%), on-road (87%), on roads that were paved (94%), on roads with light traffic volume (37%), and during low-risk conditions: between 12 p.m. and 6 p.m. (44%), on weekdays (80%), during daylight (75%), and under dry/clear conditions (81%). Road user (RU) error was identified by the police and/or the coroner for the majority of fatal crashes (55%), with a significant proportion of deceased ORUs deemed to have failed to yield (54%) or misjudged (41%). RU error was the most significant factor identified in fatal ORU crashes, which suggests that there is a limited capacity of the

  7. Analysis of Casualty Risk per Police-Reported Crash for Model Year 2000 to 2004 Vehicles, using Crash Data from Five States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom

    2011-03-20

    In this report we compare two measures of driver risks: fatality risk per vehicle registration-year, and casualty (fatality plus serious injury) risk per police-reported crash. Our analysis is based on three sets of data from five states (Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Missouri, and Pennsylvania): data on all police-reported crashes involving model year 2000 to 2004 vehicles; 2005 county-level vehicle registration data by vehicle model year and make/model; and odometer readings from vehicle emission inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs conducted in urban areas of four of the five states (Florida does not have an I/M program). The two measures of risk could differ for three reasons: casualty risks are different from fatality risk; risks per vehicle registration-year are different from risks per crash; and risks estimated from national data are different from risks from the five states analyzed here. We also examined the effect of driver behavior, crash location, and general vehicle design on risk, as well as sources of potential bias in using the crash data from five states.

  8. Off-Road Vehicle Crash Risk during the Six Months after a Birthday

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodfine, Jason D.; Thiruchelvam, Deva; Redelmeier, Donald A.

    2016-01-01

    Background Off-road vehicles are popular and thrilling for youth outside urban settings, yet sometimes result in a serious crash that requires emergency medical care. The relation between birthdays and the subsequent risk of an off-road vehicle crash is unknown. Methods We conducted a population-based before-and-after longitudinal analysis of youth who received emergency medical care in Ontario, Canada, due to an off-road vehicle crash between April 1, 2002, and March 31, 2014. We identified youth injured in an off-road vehicle crash through population-based health-care databases of individuals treated for medical emergencies. We included youth aged 19 years or younger, distinguishing juniors (age ≤ 15 years) from juveniles (age ≥ 16 years). Results A total 32,777 youths accounted for 35,202 emergencies due to off-road vehicle crashes within six months of their nearest birthday. Comparing the six months following a birthday to the six months prior to a birthday, crashes increased by about 2.7 events per 1000 juniors (18.3 vs 21.0, p juveniles (19.2 vs 19.8, p = 0.61). Conclusions Off-road vehicle crashes leading to emergency medical care increase following a birthday in youth below age 16 years. An awareness of this association might inform public health messages, gift-giving practices, age-related parental permissions, and prevention by primary care physicians. PMID:27695070

  9. Analysis of real-time crash risk for expressway ramps using traffic, geometric, trip generation, and socio-demographic predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ling; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung; Shi, Qi

    2017-07-07

    There have been numerous studies on real-time crash prediction seeking to link real-time crash likelihood with traffic and environmental predictors. Nevertheless, none has explored the impact of socio-demographic and trip generation parameters on real-time crash risk. This study analyzed the real-time crash risk for expressway ramps using traffic, geometric, socio-demographic, and trip generation predictors. Two Bayesian logistic regression models were utilized to identify crash precursors and their impact on ramp crash risk. Meanwhile, four Support Vector Machines (SVM) were applied to predict crash occurrence. Bayesian logistic regression models and SVMs commonly showed that the models with the socio-demographic and trip generation variables outperform their counterparts without those parameters. It indicates that the socio-demographic and trip generation parameters have significant impact on the real-time crash risk. The Bayesian logistic regression model results showed that the logarithm of vehicle count, speed, and percentage of home-based-work production had positive impact on crash risk. Meanwhile, off-ramps or non-diamond-ramps experienced higher crash potential than on-ramps or diamond-ramps, respectively. Though the SVMs provided good model performance, the SVM model with all variables (i.e., all traffic, geometric, socio-demographic, and trip generation variables) had an overfitting problem. Therefore, it is recommended to build SVM models based on significant variables identified by other models, such as logistic regression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Understanding crash mechanism on urban expressways using high-resolution traffic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Moinul; Muromachi, Yasunori

    2013-08-01

    Urban expressways play a vital role in the modern mega cities by serving peak hour traffic alongside reducing travel time for moderate to long distance intra-city trips. Thus, ensuring safety on these roads holds high priority. Little knowledge has been acquired till date regarding crash mechanism on these roads. This study uses high-resolution traffic data collected from the detectors to identify factors influencing crash. It also identifies traffic patterns associated with different types of crashes and explains crash phenomena thereby. Unlike most of the previous studies on conventional expressways, the research separately investigates the basic freeway segments (BFS) and the ramp areas. The study employs random multinomial logit, a random forest of logit models, to rank the variables; expectation maximization clustering algorithm to identify crash prone traffic patterns and classification and regression trees to explain crash phenomena. As accentuated by the study outcome, crash mechanism is not generic throughout the expressway and it varies from the BFS to the ramp vicinities. The level of congestion and speed difference between upstream and downstream traffic best explains crashes and their types for the BFS, whereas, the ramp flow has the highest influence in determining the types of crashes within the ramp vicinities. The paper also discusses about the applicability of different countermeasures, such as, variable speed limits, temporary restriction on lane changing, posting warnings, etc., to attenuate different patterns of hazardous traffic conditions. The study outcome can be utilized in designing location and traffic condition specific proactive road safety management systems for urban expressways.

  11. Posttraumatic stress disorder: protective and risk factors in 18 survivors of a plane crash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catanesi, Roberto; Martino, Vito; Candelli, Chiara; Troccoli, Giuseppe; Grattagliano, Ignazio; Di Vella, Giancarlo; Carabellese, Felice

    2013-09-01

    The aim of this study is to identify protective and risk factors related to the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) on a sample of survivors from a single plane crash. Eighteen survivors were examined 6 months following the event. The subjects all underwent psychiatric interviews, Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale structured interviews, personality and cognitive tests. Only 38.9% of them presented with all of the symptoms of PTSD; 22.2% showed no symptoms for PTSD; remaining survivors exhibited emotional/affective symptoms related to the event. In addition to the severity of the traumatic event itself, other risk factors identified were the loss of a relative, the manifestation of depressive symptoms, and the severity of physical injuries sustained. Low levels of hostility and high levels of self-efficacy represented protective factors against developing PTSD.

  12. Side Impact Regulatory Trends, Crash Environment and Injury Risk in the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Priya; Dalmotas, Dainius; Chouinard, Aline

    2015-11-01

    Light duty vehicles in the US are designed to meet and exceed regulatory standards, self-imposed industry agreements and safety rating tests conducted by NHTSA and IIHS. The evolution of side impact regulation in the US from 1973 to 2015 is discussed in the paper along with two key industry agreements in 2003 affecting design of restraint systems and structures for side impact protection. A combination of all the above influences shows that vehicles in the US are being designed to more demanding and comprehensive requirements than in any other region of the world. The crash environment in the US related to side impacts was defined based on data in the nationally representative crash database NASS. Crash environment factors, including the distribution of cars, light trucks and vans (LTV's), and medium-to-heavy vehicles (MHV's) in the fleet, and the frequency of their interactions with one another in side impacts, were considered. Other factors like, crash severity in terms of closing velocity between two vehicles involved in crash, gender and age of involved drivers in two-vehicle and single vehicle crashes, were also examined. Injury risks in side impacts to drivers and passengers were determined in various circumstances such as near-side, far-side, and single vehicle crashes as a function of crash severity, in terms of estimated closing speed or lateral delta-V. Also injury risks in different pairs of striking and struck cars and LTV's, were estimated. A logistic regression model for studying injury risks in two vehicle crashes was developed. The risk factors included in the model include case and striking vehicles, consisting of cars, SUV's, vans, and pickup trucks, delta-V, damage extent, occupant proximity to the impact side, age and gender of the occupant, and belt use. Results show that car occupants make up the vast majority of serious-to-fatally injured occupants. Injury rates of car occupants in two-vehicle collision are highest when the car is struck by a

  13. An injury risk curve for the hip for use in frontal impact crash testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupp, Jonathan D; Flannagan, Carol A C; Kuppa, Shashi M

    2010-02-10

    To facilitate the assessment of hip injury risk in frontal motor-vehicle crashes, an injury risk curve that relates peak force transmitted to the hip to the probability of hip fracture was developed by using survival analysis to fit a lognormal distribution to a recently published dataset of hip fracture forces. This distribution was parameterized to account for the effect of subject stature, which was the only subject characteristic found to significantly affect hip fracture force (X(2)(1)=6.03, p=0.014). The distribution was further parameterized to account for the effects of hip flexion and abduction from a standard driving posture on hip fracture force using relationships between mean hip fracture force and hip flexion/abduction reported in the literature. The resulting parametric distribution was used to define relationships between force applied to the hip and the risk of hip fracture for the statures associated with the small female, midsize male, and large male crash-test dummies, thus allowing these dummies to assess hip fracture/dislocation risk in frontal crashes, provided that such dummies are sufficiently biofidelic. For the midsize male crash test dummy, a 50% risk of hip fracture was associated with a force of 6.00kN. For the small female and large male dummies, a 50% risk of hip fracture was associated with forces of 4.46 and 6.73kN, respectively. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Sedative Hypnotic Medication Use and the Risk of Motor Vehicle Crash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Ryan N; Boudreau, Denise M; Ebel, Beth E; Grossman, David C; Sullivan, Sean D

    2015-08-01

    We sought to estimate the association between sedative hypnotic use and motor vehicle crash risk. We conducted a new user cohort study of 409 171 adults in an integrated health care system. Health plan data were linked to driver license and collision records. Participants were aged 21 years or older, licensed to drive in Washington State, had at least 1 year of continuous enrollment between 2003 and 2008, and were followed until death, disenrollment, or study end. We used proportional hazards regression to estimate the risk of crash associated with 3 sedatives. We found 5.8% of patients received new sedative prescriptions, with 11 197 person-years of exposure. New users of sedatives were associated with an increased risk of crash relative to nonuse: temazepam hazard ratio (HR) = 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.85, 1.91), trazodone HR = 1.91 (95% CI = 1.62, 2.25), and zolpidem HR = 2.20 (95% CI = 1.64, 2.95). These risk estimates are equivalent to blood alcohol concentration levels between 0.06% and 0.11%. New use of sedative hypnotics is associated with increased motor vehicle crash risk. Clinicians initiating sedative hypnotic treatment should consider length of treatment and counseling on driving risk.

  15. Naturalistic Assessment of Novice Teenage Crash Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Suzanne E.; Simons-Morton, Bruce G.; Klauer, Sheila E.; Ouimet, Marie Claude; Dingus, Thomas A.

    2011-01-01

    teenage drivers.. Discussion The findings are the first comparing crash and near-crash rates among novice teenage drivers with those of adults using the same vehicle over the same period of time. The finding of highly elevated crash rates of novice teenagers during the first six months of licensure are consistent with and confirm the archival crash data showing high crash risk for novice teenagers. The NTDS convenience sample of teenage drivers was similar to the U.S. teenage driver population in terms of exposure and crash experience. The dataset is expected be a valuable resource for future in-depth analyses of crash risk, exposure to risky driving conditions, and comparisons of teenage and adult driving performance in various driving situations. PMID:21545880

  16. Using the U.S. National Household Travel Survey to estimate the impact of passenger characteristics on young drivers' relative risk of fatal crash involvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouimet, Marie Claude; Simons-Morton, Bruce G; Zador, Paul L; Lerner, Neil D; Freedman, Mark; Duncan, Glen D; Wang, Jing

    2010-03-01

    Motor vehicle crashes are the main cause of morbidity and mortality in teenagers and young adults in the United States. Driving exposure and passenger presence, which can both vary by driver and passenger characteristics, are known to influence crash risk. Some studies have accounted for driving exposure in calculating young driver fatal crash risk in the presence of passengers, but none have estimated crash risk by driver sex and passenger age and sex. One possible reason for this gap is that data collection on driving exposure often precludes appropriate analyses. The purpose of this study was to examine, per 10 million vehicle trips (VT) and vehicle-miles traveled (VMT), the relative risk of fatal crash involvement in 15-20-year-old male and female drivers as a function of their passenger's age and sex, using solo driving as the referent. The Fatality Analysis Reporting System provided fatal motor vehicle crash data from 1999 to 2003 and the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) provided VT and VMT. The NHTS collects driving exposure for both household and non-household members (e.g., friends, colleagues), but demographic characteristics only on household members. Missing age and sex of non-household passengers were imputed with hot deck using information from household passengers' trips with non-household drivers, thereby enabling the calculation of crash rate and relative risk estimates based upon driver and passenger characteristics. Using this approach, the highest risk was found for young male drivers with 16-20-year-old passengers (relative risk [RR] per 10 million VT=7.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.34-8.69; RR per 10 million VMT=9.94; 95% CI, 9.13-10.81). Relative risk was also high for 21-34-year-old passengers, again particularly when both drivers and passengers were male. These effects warrant further investigation and underscore the importance of considering driving exposure by passenger characteristics in understanding crash risk

  17. Risk and severity of motor vehicle crashes in patients with obstructive sleep apnoea/hypopnoea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulgrew, A T; Nasvadi, G; Butt, A; Cheema, R; Fox, N; Fleetham, J A; Ryan, C F; Cooper, P; Ayas, N T

    2008-06-01

    Obstructive sleep apnoea/hypopnoea (OSAH) appears to be associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle crashes (MVCs). However, its impact on crash patterns, particularly the severity of crashes, has not been well described. A study was undertaken to determine whether OSAH severity influenced crash severity in patients referred for investigation of suspected sleep-disordered breathing. Objective crash data (including the nature of crashes) for 783 patients with suspected OSAH for the 3 years prior to polysomnography were obtained from provincial insurance records and compared with data for 783 age- and sex-matched controls. The patient group was 71% male with a mean age of 50 years, a mean apnoea-hypopnoea index (AHI) of 22 events/h and a mean Epworth Sleepiness Scale score of 10. There were 375 crashes in the 3-year period, 252 in patients and 123 in controls. Compared with controls, patients with mild, moderate and severe OSAH had an increased rate of MVCs with relative risks of 2.6 (95% CI 1.7 to 3.9), 1.9 (95% CI 1.2 to 2.8) and 2.0 (95% CI 1.4 to 3.0), respectively. Patients with suspected OSAH and normal polysomnography (AHI 0-5) did not have an increased rate of MVC (relative risk 1.5 (95% CI 0.9 to 2.5), p = 0.21). When the impact of OSAH on MVC associated with personal injury was examined, patients with mild, moderate and severe OSAH had a substantially higher rate of MVCs than controls with relative risks of 4.8 (95% CI 1.8 to 12.4), 3.0 (95% CI 1.3 to 7.0) and 4.3 (95% CI 1.8 to 8.9), respectively, whereas patients without OSAH had similar crash rates to controls with a relative risk of 0.6 (95% CI 0.2 to 2.5). Very severe MVCs (head-on collisions or those involving pedestrians or cyclists) were rare, but 80% of these occurred in patients with OSAH (p = 0.06). Patients with OSAH have increased rates of MVCs, and disproportionately increased rates of MVCs are associated with personal injury.

  18. Risk factors of mobile phone use while driving in Queensland: Prevalence, attitudes, crash risk perception, and task-management strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oviedo-Trespalacios, Oscar; King, Mark; Haque, Md Mazharul; Washington, Simon

    2017-01-01

    Distracted driving is one of the most significant human factor issues in transport safety. Mobile phone interactions while driving may involve a multitude of cognitive and physical resources that result in inferior driving performance and reduced safety margins. The current study investigates characteristics of usage, risk factors, compensatory strategies in use and characteristics of high-frequency offenders of mobile phone use while driving. A series of questions were administered to drivers in Queensland (Australia) using an on-line questionnaire. A total of 484 drivers (34.9% males and 49.8% aged 17-25) participated anonymously. At least one of every two motorists surveyed reported engaging in distracted driving. Drivers were unable to acknowledge the increased crash risk associated with answering and locating a ringing phone in contrast to other tasks such as texting/browsing. Attitudes towards mobile phone usage were more favourable for talking than texting or browsing. Lowering the driving speed and increasing the distance from the vehicle in front were the most popular task-management strategies for talking and texting/browsing while driving. On the other hand, keeping the mobile phone low (e.g. in the driver's lap or on the passenger seat) was the favourite strategy used by drivers to avoid police fines for both talking and texting/browsing. Logistic regression models were fitted to understand differences in risk factors for engaging in mobile phone conversations and browsing/texting while driving. For both tasks, exposure to driving, driving experience, driving history (offences and crashes), and attitudes were significant predictors. Future mobile phone prevention efforts would benefit from development of safe attitudes and increasing risk literacy. Enforcement of mobile phone distraction should be re-engineered, as the use of task-management strategies to evade police enforcement seems to dilute its effect on the prevention of this behaviour. Some

  19. The impacts of multiple rest-break periods on commercial truck driver's crash risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chen; Xie, Yuanchang

    2014-02-01

    Driver fatigue has been a major contributing factor to fatal commercial truck crashes, which accounted for about 10% of all fatal motor vehicle crashes that happened between 2009 and 2011. Commercial truck drivers' safety performance can deteriorate easily due to fatigue caused by long driving hours and irregular working schedules. To ensure safety, truck drivers often use off-duty time and short rest breaks during a trip to recover from fatigue. This study thoroughly investigates the impacts of off-duty time prior to a trip and short rest breaks on commercial truck safety by using Cox proportional hazards model and Andersen-Gill model. It is found that increasing total rest-break duration can consistently reduce fatigue-related crash risk. Similarly, taking more rest breaks can help to reduce crash risk. The results suggest that two rest breaks are generally considered enough for a 10-hour trip, as three or more rest breaks may not further reduce crash risk substantially. Also, the length of each rest break does not need to be very long and 30min is usually adequate. In addition, this study investigates the safety impacts of when to take rest breaks. It is found that taking rest breaks too soon after a trip starts will cause the rest breaks to be less effective. The findings of this research can help policy makers and trucking companies better understand the impacts of multiple rest-break periods and develop more effective rules to improve the safety of truck drivers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  20. Effects of BMI on the risk and frequency of AIS 3+ injuries in motor-vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupp, Jonathan D; Flannagan, Carol A C; Leslie, Andrew J; Hoff, Carrie N; Reed, Matthew P; Cunningham, Rebecca M

    2013-01-01

    Determine the effects of BMI on the risk of serious-to-fatal injury (Abbreviated Injury Scale ≥ 3 or AIS 3+) to different body regions for adults in frontal, nearside, farside, and rollover crashes. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to a probability sample of adult occupants involved in crashes generated by combining the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS-CDS) with a pseudoweighted version of the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network database. Logistic regression models were applied to weighted data to estimate the change in the number of occupants with AIS 3+ injuries if no occupants were obese. Increasing BMI increased risk of lower-extremity injury in frontal crashes, decreased risk of lower-extremity injury in nearside impacts, increased risk of upper-extremity injury in frontal and nearside crashes, and increased risk of spine injury in frontal crashes. Several of these findings were affected by interactions with gender and vehicle type. If no occupants in frontal crashes were obese, 7% fewer occupants would sustain AIS 3+ upper-extremity injuries, 8% fewer occupants would sustain AIS 3+ lower-extremity injuries, and 28% fewer occupants would sustain AIS 3+ spine injuries. Results of this study have implications on the design and evaluation of vehicle safety systems. Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.

  1. Risk factors for roadway single- and multi-vehicle all-terrain vehicle crashes in Pennsylvania: 2010-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorucu, Serap; Murphy, Dennis; Kassab, Cathy

    2017-01-01

    All Terrain Vehicles on public roadways become major risk factors for the motorists. To compare characteristics of crashes and injury severity related to single vehicle (SV) and multi-vehicle (MV) All-Terrain Vehicle (ATV) roadway crashes in Pennsylvania, USA. Data on ATV crashes occurring on public roads during the years 2010-2013 was obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT) and analyzed. Almost two-thirds of the incidents were single-vehicle incidents. Single-ATV incidents have a greater risk for incapacitating injury to drivers than do multi-vehicle ATV incidents. Other factors that increase risk for incapacitating injury in SV crashes include being male, being a driver, alcohol/drug involvement, hitting a fixed object, and the incidents in non-daylight hours. For MV ATV incidents, head on and rear-end crashes and drivers who had alcohol/drug involvement were the two major incapacitating injury risk factors. This study has enabled us to better understand roadway ATV incidents, characteristics of SV and MV ATV crashes, and the incapacitating injury risks in both SV and MV crash incidents. Our study suggests that road safety and public health programs should focus on the users' knowledge on laws regarding ATV usage on public roadways.

  2. The relationship between impaired driving crashes and beliefs about impaired driving: do residents in high crash rate counties have greater concerns about impaired driving?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Kenneth H; Yan, Alice F; Wang, Min Qi; Kerns, Timothy J; Burch, Cynthia A

    2009-04-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to examine the relationship between impaired driving crashes and public beliefs and concerns about impaired driving across each of Maryland's twenty-four counties (including Baltimore City). It was hypothesized that residents of counties that experience higher impaired driving crashes would express more concerns about impaired driving and perceive more risks about driving impaired than residents of counties that have lower rates of impaired driving. Data for alcohol impaired driving crashes were obtained for the years 2004-2006. These data were compared to public opinion data that was obtained annually by random-digit-dial telephone surveys from 2004 to 2007. Concerns about drunk driving as well as perceptions of the likelihood of being stopped by the police if one were to drive after having too much to drink were related to counties with higher serious impaired driving crash rates, as were perceptions that the police and the legal system were too lenient. Perceptions about the likelihood of being stopped by the police were higher in those counties with more impaired driving enforcement activity. Perceptions of concern appear to be shaped more by crash exposure than enforcement activity. Campaigns that address impaired driving prevention should substantially increase enforcement, strengthen the adjudication process of impaired drivers, and emphasize the potential seriousness of drinking-driving crashes in their promotional activities.

  3. Estimated injury risk for specific injuries and body regions in frontal motor vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Ashley A; Talton, Jennifer W; Barnard, Ryan T; Schoell, Samantha L; Swett, Katrina R; Stitzel, Joel D

    2015-01-01

    Injury risk curves estimate motor vehicle crash (MVC) occupant injury risk from vehicle, crash, and/or occupant factors. Many vehicles are equipped with event data recorders (EDRs) that collect data including the crash speed and restraint status during a MVC. This study's goal was to use regulation-required data elements for EDRs to compute occupant injury risk for (1) specific injuries and (2) specific body regions in frontal MVCs from weighted NASS-CDS data. Logistic regression analysis of NASS-CDS single-impact frontal MVCs involving front seat occupants with frontal airbag deployment was used to produce 23 risk curves for specific injuries and 17 risk curves for Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ to 5+ body region injuries. Risk curves were produced for the following body regions: head and thorax (AIS 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+), face (AIS 2+), abdomen, spine, upper extremity, and lower extremity (AIS 2+, 3+). Injury risk with 95% confidence intervals was estimated for 15-105 km/h longitudinal delta-Vs and belt status was adjusted for as a covariate. Overall, belted occupants had lower estimated risks compared to unbelted occupants and the risk of injury increased as longitudinal delta-V increased. Belt status was a significant predictor for 13 specific injuries and all body region injuries with the exception of AIS 2+ and 3+ spine injuries. Specific injuries and body region injuries that occurred more frequently in NASS-CDS also tended to carry higher risks when evaluated at a 56 km/h longitudinal delta-V. In the belted population, injury risks that ranked in the top 33% included 4 upper extremity fractures (ulna, radius, clavicle, carpus/metacarpus), 2 lower extremity fractures (fibula, metatarsal/tarsal), and a knee sprain (2.4-4.6% risk). Unbelted injury risks ranked in the top 33% included 4 lower extremity fractures (femur, fibula, metatarsal/tarsal, patella), 2 head injuries with less than one hour or unspecified prior unconsciousness, and a lung contusion (4

  4. A model to identify high crash road segments with the dynamic segmentation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boroujerdian, Amin Mirza; Saffarzadeh, Mahmoud; Yousefi, Hassan; Ghassemian, Hassan

    2014-12-01

    Currently, high social and economic costs in addition to physical and mental consequences put road safety among most important issues. This paper aims at presenting a novel approach, capable of identifying the location as well as the length of high crash road segments. It focuses on the location of accidents occurred along the road and their effective regions. In other words, due to applicability and budget limitations in improving safety of road segments, it is not possible to recognize all high crash road segments. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to identify high crash road segments and their real length to be able to prioritize the safety improvement in roads. In this paper, after evaluating deficiencies of the current road segmentation models, different kinds of errors caused by these methods are addressed. One of the main deficiencies of these models is that they can not identify the length of high crash road segments. In this paper, identifying the length of high crash road segments (corresponding to the arrangement of accidents along the road) is achieved by converting accident data to the road response signal of through traffic with a dynamic model based on the wavelet theory. The significant advantage of the presented method is multi-scale segmentation. In other words, this model identifies high crash road segments with different lengths and also it can recognize small segments within long segments. Applying the presented model into a real case for identifying 10-20 percent of high crash road segment showed an improvement of 25-38 percent in relative to the existing methods.

  5. The impact of vehicle moving violations and freeway traffic flow on crash risk: An application of plugin development for microsimulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Yumeng; Stipancic, Joshua

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents the use of the Aimsun microsimulation program to simulate vehicle violating behaviors and observe their impact on road traffic crash risk. Plugins for violations of speeding, slow driving, and abrupt stopping were developed using Aimsun’s API and SDK module. A safety analysis plugin for investigating probability of rear-end collisions was developed, and a method for analyzing collision risk is proposed. A Fuzzy C-mean Clustering algorithm was developed to identify high risk states in different road segments over time. Results of a simulation experiment based on the G15 Expressway in Shanghai showed that abrupt stopping had the greatest impact on increasing collision risk, and the impact of violations increased with traffic volume. The methodology allows for the evaluation and monitoring of risks, alerting of road hazards, and identification of hotspots, and could be applied to the operations of existing facilities or planning of future ones. PMID:28886141

  6. Driver sleepiness and risk of motor vehicle crash injuries: a population-based case control study in Fiji (TRIP 12).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Josephine; Kafoa, Berlin; Wainiqolo, Iris; Robinson, Elizabeth; McCaig, Eddie; Connor, Jennie; Jackson, Rod; Ameratunga, Shanthi

    2014-03-01

    Published studies investigating the role of driver sleepiness in road crashes in low and middle-income countries have largely focused on heavy vehicles. We investigated the contribution of driver sleepiness to four-wheel motor vehicle crashes in Fiji, a middle-income Pacific Island country. The population-based case control study included 131 motor vehicles involved in crashes where at least one person died or was hospitalised (cases) and 752 motor vehicles identified in roadside surveys (controls). An interviewer-administered questionnaire completed by drivers or proxies collected information on potential risks for crashes including sleepiness while driving, and factors that may influence the quantity or quality of sleep. Following adjustment for confounders, there was an almost six-fold increase in the odds of injury-involved crashes for vehicles driven by people who were not fully alert or sleepy (OR 5.7, 95%CI: 2.7, 12.3), or those who reported less than 6 h of sleep during the previous 24 h (OR 5.9, 95%CI: 1.7, 20.9). The population attributable risk for crashes associated with driving while not fully alert or sleepy was 34%, and driving after less than 6 h sleep in the previous 24 h was 9%. Driving by people reporting symptoms suggestive of obstructive sleep apnoea was not significantly associated with crash risk. Driver sleepiness is an important contributor to injury-involved four-wheel motor vehicle crashes in Fiji, highlighting the need for evidence-based strategies to address this poorly characterised risk factor for car crashes in less resourced settings. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. In-depth analysis of drivers' merging behavior and rear-end crash risks in work zone merging areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Jinxian; Xue, Shan; Yang, Ying; Yan, Xuedong; Qu, Xiaobo

    2015-04-01

    This study investigates the drivers' merging behavior and the rear-end crash risk in work zone merging areas during the entire merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. With the merging traffic data from a work zone site in Singapore, a mixed probit model is developed to describe the merging behavior, and two surrogate safety measures including the time to collision (TTC) and deceleration rate to avoid the crash (DRAC) are adopted to compute the rear-end crash risk between the merging vehicle and its neighboring vehicles. Results show that the merging vehicle has a bigger probability of completing a merging maneuver quickly under one of the following situations: (i) the merging vehicle moves relatively fast; (ii) the merging lead vehicle is a heavy vehicle; and (iii) there is a sizable gap in the adjacent through lane. Results indicate that the rear-end crash risk does not monotonically increase as the merging vehicle speed increases. The merging vehicle's rear-end crash risk is also affected by the vehicle type. There is a biggest increment of rear-end crash risk if the merging lead vehicle belongs to a heavy vehicle. Although the reduced remaining distance to work zone could urge the merging vehicle to complete a merging maneuver quickly, it might lead to an increased rear-end crash risk. Interestingly, it is found that the rear-end crash risk could be generally increased over the elapsed time after the merging maneuver being triggered. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Child passenger injury risk in motor vehicle crashes: a comparison of nighttime and daytime driving by teenage and adult drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Irene G; Durbin, Dennis R; Elliott, Michael R; Senserrick, Teresa; Winston, Flaura K

    2006-01-01

    To examine the association between child passenger injury risk, restraint use, and crash time (day vs. night) for children in crashes of vehicles driven by teenage versus adult drivers. Cross-sectional study involving telephone interviews with insured drivers in a probability sample of 6,184 crashes involving 10,028 children. Child passengers in teen nighttime crashes had an increased injury risk and an increased risk of restraint nonuse compared with those in teen daytime crashes. This increased injury risk can be explained by differences in the age of child passengers, collision type, and child passenger's restraint status associated with time of day. In order to limit the risk of injury to child passengers driven by teens, Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) laws should include provisions restricting nighttime driving, as well as mandates for age-appropriate restraint for child passengers. Consideration should also be given for education in child passenger safety for novice teen drivers as part of the licensing process. Results of this study can be used to support advocacy efforts by the automotive industry and others to promote nighttime driving restrictions on novice drivers. In addition, given that both driver groups were more likely to be involved in a single-vehicle collision during the night, technologies such as electronic stability control may offer opportunities for protection. Further reseach on specific circumstances of teen nighttime crashes is needed to inform industry efforts to improve visibility or vehicle operation under poor lighting conditions.

  9. Factors Contributing to Crashes among Young Drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyndel J. Bates

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Young drivers are the group of drivers most likely to crash. There are a number of factors that contribute to the high crash risk experienced by these drivers. While some of these factors are intrinsic to the young driver, such as their age, gender or driving skill, others relate to social factors and when and how often they drive. This article reviews the factors that affect the risk of young drivers crashing to enable a fuller understanding of why this risk is so high in order to assist in developing effective countermeasures.

  10. Factors Contributing to Crashes among Young Drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Lyndel J; Davey, Jeremy; Watson, Barry; King, Mark J; Armstrong, Kerry

    2014-08-01

    Young drivers are the group of drivers most likely to crash. There are a number of factors that contribute to the high crash risk experienced by these drivers. While some of these factors are intrinsic to the young driver, such as their age, gender or driving skill, others relate to social factors and when and how often they drive. This article reviews the factors that affect the risk of young drivers crashing to enable a fuller understanding of why this risk is so high in order to assist in developing effective countermeasures.

  11. The roles of the trading time risks on stock investment return and risks in stock price crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Yang, Guo-Hui; Long, Chao

    2017-03-01

    The roles of the trading time risks (TTRs) on stock investment return and risks are investigated in the condition of stock price crashes with Hushen300 data (CSI300) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI), respectively. In order to describe the TTR, we employ the escape time that the stock price drops from the maximum to minimum value in a data window length (DWL). After theoretical and empirical research on probability density function of return, the results in both ˆDJI and CSI300 indicate that: (i) As increasing DWL, the expectation of returns and its stability are weakened. (ii) An optimal TTR is related to a maximum return and minimum risk of stock investment in stock price crashes.

  12. Psychoactive substance use and the risk of motor vehicle crash injuries in southern Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Ching-Cheng; Chen, Shou-Chien; Tan, Lia-Beng; Chu, Wen-Yang; Huang, Chen-Mao; Liu, Shyun-Yeu; Chen, Kow-Tong

    2012-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the association between psychoactive drug use and motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries requiring hospitalization in southern Taiwan. A case-control study was conducted in southern Taiwan from January 2009 to December 2009. The cases included car or van drivers who were involved in MVCs and required hospitalization. Demographic and trauma-related data were collected from questionnaires and hospital and ambulance records. Urine and/or blood samples were collected on admission. The controls consisted of drivers who were randomly recruited while driving on public roads. Study subjects were interviewed and asked to provide urine samples. All blood and urine samples were tested for alcohol and a number of other legal and illegal drugs. Only those subjects who provided urine and/or blood specimens were included in the study. During the study period, 254 case patients and 254 control drivers were enrolled. The analysis showed an odds ratio (OR) of 3.41 (95% confidence intervals (95% CI), 1.76-6.70; p < 0.001) for persons taking benzodiazepines, and an OR of 3.50 (95% CI, 1.81-6.85; p < 0.001) for those taking alcohol (blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) ≥ 0.8 g/l) with regard to hospitalizations due to MVCs. For persons taking combinations of benzodiazepines and alcohol, the OR increased to 5.12 (95% CI: 1.77-15.91, p < 0.001). This study concluded that drug use among motor vehicle drivers increases the risk of MVCs that require hospitalization. From a public health perspective, the high risk ratios are concerning, and preventive measures are warranted.

  13. Children with special physical health care needs: restraint use and injury risk in motor vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Patty; Kallan, Michael J; O'Neil, Joseph; Bull, Marilyn J; Blum, Nathan J; Durbin, Dennis R

    2011-10-01

    Physical disabilities may affect a child passenger's fit within a conventional motor vehicle restraint. The aim of this study is to describe and compare injury risk in motor vehicle crashes (MVC) among children with and without special physical health care needs (SPHCN). This analysis, conducted in 2007-2008, utilizes data collected between December 1998 and November 2002 in a cross-sectional study of children ≤15 years old involved in crashes of State-Farm insured vehicles in 15 states and the District of Columbia. Parent reports via telephone survey were used to define pre-crash SPHCN, restraint status, and occurrence of significant injuries using a validated survey. Complete data were collected for 18,852 children aged 0-15 years; 159 children were reported to have a SPHCN (0.8% and 0.7% of children aged 0-8 and 9-15 years, respectively). A greater proportion of children with SPHCN aged 0-8 years were appropriately restrained (P < 0.001), but there was no significant difference in restraint use among children with and without SPHCN aged 9-15 years. There was no significant association between the presence of a SPHCN and injury risk in either age group, after adjustment for child/driver characteristics (children aged 0-8 years: OR 1.27, 95% CI: 0.48-3.33; children aged 9-15 years: OR 1.51, 95% CI: 0.38-6.11). Children with and without SPHCN have similar injury risk in MVC, despite increased age-appropriate restraint usage among children aged 0-8 years. When counseling families about vehicle safety, practitioners should consider the fit of a child with SPHCN in a restraint system.

  14. Driver Sleepiness and Risk of Car Crashes in Shenyang, a Chinese Northeastern City: Population-based Case-control Study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAI-FEN LIU; SONG HAN; DUO-HONG LIANG; FENG-ZHI WANG; XIN-ZHU SHI; JIAN YU; ZHENG-LAI WU

    2003-01-01

    To estimate the association of driver sleepiness with the risk of car crashes.Methods A population-based case-control study was conducted in Shenyang, a northeastern city in China, between November 2001 and July 2002. The case group comprised 406 car drivers involved in crashes, and 438 car drivers recruited at randomly selected sites, and on the day of week, and the time of day when they were driving on highways in the study region during the study period were used as control groups. Face-to-face interviews with drivers were conducted according to a well-structured questionnaire covering the circumstances of their current trip and their background information.Stanford sleepiness scale and Epworth sleepiness scale were used to quantify acute sleepiness and chronic sleepiness respectively. Results There was a strong association between chronic sleepiness and the risk of car crash. Significantly increased risk of crash was associated with drivers who identified themselves as sleepy (Epworth sleepiness score ≥ 10 vs <10; adjusted odds ratio 2.07, 95%confidence interval 1.30 to 3.29), but no increased risk was associated with measures of acute sleepiness. Conclusions Chronic sleepiness in car drivers significantly increases the risk of car crash. Reductions in road traffic injuries may be achieved if fewer people drive when they are sleepy.

  15. Thoracic Injury Risk as a Function of Crash Severity - Car-to-car Side Impact Tests with WorldSID Compared to Real-life Crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunnevång, Cecilia; Rosén, Erik; Boström, Ola; Lechelt, Ulf

    2010-01-01

    Side airbags reduce the risk of fatal injury by approximately 30%. Due to limited real-life data the risk reducing effect for serious injury has not yet been established. Since side airbags are mainly designed and validated for crash severities used in available test procedures little is known regarding the protective effect when severity increases.The objective of this study was to understand for which crash severities AIS3+ thorax occupant protection in car-to-car nearside collisions need to and can be improved. The aim was fulfilled by means of real life data, for older cars without side airbag, and a series of car-to-car tests performed with the WorldSID 50%-ile in modern and older cars at different impact speeds.The real life data showed that the risk of AIS3+ injury was highest for the thorax followed by the pelvis and head. For both non-senior and senior occupants, most thorax injuries were sustained at lateral delta-v from 20 km/h to 40 km/h. In this severity range, senior occupants were found to have approximately four times higher risk of thoracic injury than non-senior occupants. The crash tests at lateral impact speed 55 km/h (delta-v 32 km/h) confirmed the improved performance at severities represented in current legal and rating tests. The structural integrity of the modern car impacted at 70 km/h showed a potential for improved side impact protection by interior countermeasures.

  16. A case-crossover study of alcohol consumption, meals and the risk of road traffic crashes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marchetti Riccardo

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The case-crossover (CC design has proved effective to investigate the association between alcohol use and injuries in general, but has never been applied to study alcohol use and road traffic crashes (RTCs specifically. This study aims at investigating the association between alcohol and meal consumption and the risk of RTCs using intrapersonal comparisons of subjects while driving. Methods Drivers admitted to an Italian emergency room (ER after RTCs in 2007 were interviewed about personal, vehicle, and crash characteristics as well as hourly patterns of driving, and alcohol and food intake in the 24 hours before the crash. The odds ratio (OR of a RTC was estimated through a CC, matched pair interval approach. Alcohol and meal consumption 6 and 2 hours before the RTC (case exposure window were compared with exposures in earlier control windows of analogous length. Results Of 574 patients enrolled, 326 (56.8% reported previous driving from 6 to 18 hours before the RTC and were eligible for analysis. The ORs (mutually adjusted were 2.25 (95%CI 1.11-4.57 for alcohol and 0.94 (0.47-1.88 for meals. OR for alcohol was already increased at low (1-2 units doses - 2.17 (1.03-4.57 and the trend of increase for each unit was significant - 1.64 (95%CI 1.05-2.57. In drivers at fault the OR for alcohol was 21.22 (2.31-194.79. The OR estimate for meal consumption seemed to increase in case of previous sleep deprivation, 2.06 (0.25-17.00. Conclusion Each single unit of acute alcohol consumption increases the risk of RTCs, in contrast with the 'legal' threshold allowed in some countries. Meal consumption is not associated with RTCs, but its combined effects with sleepiness need further elucidation.

  17. The returns and risks of investment portfolio in stock market crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Long, Chao; Chen, Xiao-Dan

    2015-06-01

    The returns and risks of investment portfolio in stock market crashes are investigated by considering a theoretical model, based on a modified Heston model with a cubic nonlinearity, proposed by Spagnolo and Valenti. Through numerically simulating probability density function of returns and the mean escape time of the model, the results indicate that: (i) the maximum stability of returns is associated with the maximum dispersion of investment portfolio and an optimal stop-loss position; (ii) the maximum risks are related with a worst dispersion of investment portfolio and the risks of investment portfolio are enhanced by increasing stop-loss position. In addition, the good agreements between the theoretical result and real market data are found in the behaviors of the probability density function and the mean escape time.

  18. Predicting Free Flow Speed and Crash Risk of Bicycle Traffic Flow Using Artificial Neural Network Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Xu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Free flow speed is a fundamental measure of traffic performance and has been found to affect the severity of crash risk. However, the previous studies lack analysis and modelling of impact factors on bicycles’ free flow speed. The main focus of this study is to develop multilayer back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN models for the prediction of free flow speed and crash risk on the separated bicycle path. Four different models with considering different combinations of input variables (e.g., path width, traffic condition, bicycle type, and cyclists’ characteristics were developed. 459 field data samples were collected from eleven bicycle paths in Hangzhou, China, and 70% of total samples were used for training, 15% for validation, and 15% for testing. The results show that considering the input variables of bicycle types and characteristics of cyclists will effectively improve the accuracy of the prediction models. Meanwhile, the parameters of bicycle types have more significant effect on predicting free flow speed of bicycle compared to those of cyclists’ characteristics. The findings could contribute for evaluation, planning, and management of bicycle safety.

  19. Older Adults at Increased Risk as Pedestrians in Victoria, Australia: An Examination of Crash Characteristics and Injury Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hern, Steve; Oxley, Jennifer; Logan, David

    2015-01-01

    Engaging in active transport modes (especially walking) is a healthy and environmentally friendly alternative to driving and may be particularly beneficial for older adults. However, older adults are a vulnerable group: they are at higher risk of injury compared with younger adults, mainly due to frailty and may be at increased risk of collision due to the effects of age on sensory, cognitive, and motor abilities. Moreover, our population is aging, and there is a trend for the current cohort of older adults to maintain mobility later in life compared with previous cohorts. Though these trends have serious implications for transport policy and safety, little is known about the contributing factors and injury outcomes of pedestrian collision. Further, previous research generally considers the older population as a homogeneous group and rarely considers the increased risks associated with continued ageing. Collision characteristics and injury outcomes for 2 subgroups of older pedestrians (65-74 years and 75+ years) were examined by extracting data from the state police-reported crash dataset and hospital admission/emergency department presentation data over the 10-year period between 2003 and 2012. Variables identified for analysis included pedestrian characteristics (age, gender, activity, etc.), crash location and type, injury characteristics and severity, and duration of hospital stay. A spatial analysis of crash locations was also undertaken to identify collision clusters and the contribution of environmental features on collision and injury risk. Adults over 65 years were involved in 21% of all pedestrian collisions. A high fatality rate was found among older adults, particularly for those aged 75 years and older: this group had 3.2 deaths per 100,000 population, compared to a rate of 1.3 for 65- to 74-year-olds and 0.7 for adults below 65 years of age. Older pedestrian injuries were most likely to occur while crossing the carriageway; they were also more likely

  20. THE RISK OF INJURY AND VEHICLE DAMAGE SEVERITY IN VEHICLE MISMATCHED SIDE IMPACT CRASHES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ediriweera DESAPRIYA

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available As occupant protection offered by new passenger vehicles has improved, there has been growing concern about the harm that some vehicle designs may inflict on occupants of other vehicles with which they collide. Preceding analyses of crash statistics have clearly demonstrated the incompatibility between passenger sedan cars (PS and pick-up trucks (PU involved in side impact crashes in British Columbia. A comparison of light truck and passenger car crashes in previous literature reveals that light truck vehicles inflict greater harm than passenger cars for a number of reasons including their greater weight, stiffer structure, and higher ride height. These features place occupants of passenger cars at a disadvantage should they be involved in a collision with a light truck vehicle. The injury risk for passenger sedan car occupants is greater than the risk for pick-up truck occupants in two-vehicle crashes (Odds Ratio (OR 1.87; 95% Confidence Interval (CI 1.38-2.52. In addition, the risk of vehicle damage severity was increased for passenger cars compared with pick-up trucks (write off vehicle-OR 5.35; 95% CI 3.75-7.63, severely damaged vehicles-OR 5.87; 95% CI 4.79–7.19, moderately damaged vehicles-OR 2.86; 95% CI 2.44–3.36. There is strong justification for injury prevention experts and policy makers to step up motor vehicle crash injury prevention advocacy by implementing evidence-based policies to reduce rates of injury as a result of passenger sedan cars and pick-up trucks involved in side impact crashes in the province of British Columbia.

  1. Effects of high-profile collisions on drink-driving penalties and alcohol-related crashes in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakahara, Shinji; Ichikawa, Masao

    2011-06-01

    Japanese road traffic law was amended in 2002 and 2007 to increase the penalties for drink-driving in response to media coverage, publicity campaigns, and debates following high-profile alcohol-related motor-vehicle crashes in 1999 and 2006. To test the hypothesis that the proportion of crashes involving drink-driving started to decline before the law amendments, because of changes in social norms and driver behaviour after the high-profile crashes. In order to assess the impact of the cases in 1999 and 2006, time-series analyses were used to examine the trends in the proportion of crashes involving drink-driving, and whether there were abrupt changes in the level or slope at the expected time points, using monthly police data for the period between January 1995 and December 2008. In 1999, the proportion of alcohol-related fatal crashes in which the driver had a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) ≥0.5 mg/ml started to decline with a slope change of -0.09 percentage points per month (95% CI -0.15 to -0.03) but no level change, whereas there were no changes for drivers with a BAC trends for drivers with a BAC ≥0.5 or Media coverage of high-profile crashes, and subsequent publicity campaigns and debates might have altered social norms and driver behaviour, reducing the proportion of alcohol-related crashes before the introduction of more severe penalties for drink-driving.

  2. Association between weight and risk of crash-related injuries for children in child restraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zonfrillo, Mark R; Elliott, Michael R; Flannagan, Carol A; Durbin, Dennis R

    2011-12-01

    To determine the association between weight and the risk of injury in motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) for children 1 through 8 years of age who were using child restraints. This was a cross-sectional study of children 1 to 8 years of age in MVCs, in which cases from the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System were used. Abbreviated Injury Scale scores of ≥2 indicated clinically significant injuries. The National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System study sample included 650 children 1 to 5 years of age in forward-facing child restraints who weighed 20 to 65 lb and 344 children 3 to 8 years of age in belt-positioning booster seats who weighed 30 to 100 lb. With adjustment for seating position, type of vehicle, direction of impact, crash severity, and vehicle model year, there was no association between absolute weight and clinically significant injuries in either age group (odds ratio: 1.17 [95% confidence interval: 0.96-1.42] for children 1-5 years of age in forward-facing child restraints and 1.22 [95% confidence interval: 0.96-1.55] for children 3-8 years of age in belt-positioning booster seats). The risk of clinically significant injuries was not associated with weight across a broad weight range in this sample of children in MVCs who were using child restraint systems. Parents should continue to restrain their children according to current recommendations from the American Academy of Pediatrics and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

  3. BMI and risk of serious upper body injury following motor vehicle crashes: concordance of real-world and computer-simulated observations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shankuan Zhu

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Men tend to have more upper body mass and fat than women, a physical characteristic that may predispose them to severe motor vehicle crash (MVC injuries, particularly in certain body regions. This study examined MVC-related regional body injury and its association with the presence of driver obesity using both real-world data and computer crash simulation.Real-world data were from the 2001 to 2005 National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System. A total of 10,941 drivers who were aged 18 years or older involved in frontal collision crashes were eligible for the study. Sex-specific logistic regression models were developed to analyze the associations between MVC injury and the presence of driver obesity. In order to confirm the findings from real-world data, computer models of obese subjects were constructed and crash simulations were performed. According to real-world data, obese men had a substantially higher risk of injury, especially serious injury, to the upper body regions including head, face, thorax, and spine than normal weight men (all p<0.05. A U-shaped relation was found between body mass index (BMI and serious injury in the abdominal region for both men and women (p<0.05 for both BMI and BMI(2. In the high-BMI range, men were more likely to be seriously injured than were women for all body regions except the extremities and abdominal region (all p<0.05 for interaction between BMI and sex. The findings from the computer simulation were generally consistent with the real-world results in the present study.Obese men endured a much higher risk of injury to upper body regions during MVCs. This higher risk may be attributed to differences in body shape, fat distribution, and center of gravity between obese and normal-weight subjects, and between men and women. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  4. The Use of a Vehicle Acceleration Exposure Limit Model and a Finite Element Crash Test Dummy Model to Evaluate the Risk of Injuries During Orion Crew Module Landings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Charles; Fasanella, Edwin L.; Tabiei, Ala; Brinkley, James W.; Shemwell, David M.

    2008-01-01

    A review of astronaut whole body impact tolerance is discussed for land or water landings of the next generation manned space capsule named Orion. LS-DYNA simulations of Orion capsule landings are performed to produce a low, moderate, and high probability of injury. The paper evaluates finite element (FE) seat and occupant simulations for assessing injury risk for the Orion crew and compares these simulations to whole body injury models commonly referred to as the Brinkley criteria. The FE seat and crash dummy models allow for varying the occupant restraint systems, cushion materials, side constraints, flailing of limbs, and detailed seat/occupant interactions to minimize landing injuries to the crew. The FE crash test dummies used in conjunction with the Brinkley criteria provides a useful set of tools for predicting potential crew injuries during vehicle landings.

  5. Risk factors associated with crash severity on low-volume rural roads in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Kaplan, Sigal

    -volume rural roads, including crash characteristics, driver attributes and behavior, vehicle type, road features, environmental conditions, distance from the nearest hospital, and zone rurality degree. The data consist of a set of crashes occurred on low-volume rural roads in Denmark between 2007 and 2011...

  6. Alcohol and marijuana use while driving--an unexpected crash risk in Pakistani commercial drivers: a cross-sectional survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mir Mohammed

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A significant proportion of road traffic crashes are attributable to alcohol and marijuana use while driving globally. Sale and use of both substances is illegal in Pakistan and is not considered a threat for road traffic injuries. However literature hints that this may not be the case. We did this study to assess usage of alcohol and marijuana in Pakistani commercial drivers. Methods A sample of 857 commercial bus and truck drivers was interviewed in October 2008 at the largest commercial vehicle station in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, Pakistan. Time location cluster sampling was used to select the subjects and a structured questionnaire was used to assess the basic demographic profile, substance abuse habits of the drivers while on the road, and reasons for usage of illicit substances while driving were recorded. Self reported information was collected after obtaining informed consent. Chi square and fisher exact tests were used to assess differences between groups and logistic regression was used to identify significant associations between driver characteristics and alcohol and marijuana use. Results Almost 10% of truck drivers use alcohol while driving on Pakistani roads. Marijuana use is almost 30% in some groups. Statistically different patterns of usage are seen between population subgroups based on age, ethnicity, education, and marital status. Regression analysis shows association of alcohol and marijuana use with road rage and error behaviours, and also with an increased risk of being involved in road crashes. The reported reasons for using alcohol or marijuana show a general lack of awareness of the hazardous nature of this practice among the commercial driver population. Conclusion Alcohol and marijuana use is highly prevalent in Pakistani commercial drivers. The issue needs to be recognized by concerned authorities and methods such as random breath tests and sobriety check points need to be employed for proper law

  7. Life-threatening motor vehicle crashes in bright sunlight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redelmeier, Donald A.; Raza, Sheharyar

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Bright sunlight may create visual illusions that lead to driver error, including fallible distance judgment from aerial perspective. We tested whether the risk of a life-threatening motor vehicle crash was increased when driving in bright sunlight. This longitudinal, case-only, paired-comparison analysis evaluated patients hospitalized because of a motor vehicle crash between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2014. The relative risk of a crash associated with bright sunlight was estimated by evaluating the prevailing weather at the time and place of the crash compared with the weather at the same hour and location on control days a week earlier and a week later. The majority of patients (n = 6962) were injured during daylight hours and bright sunlight was the most common weather condition at the time and place of the crash. The risk of a life-threatening crash was 16% higher during bright sunlight than normal weather (95% confidence interval: 9–24, P < 0.001). The increased risk was accentuated in the early afternoon, disappeared at night, extended to patients with different characteristics, involved crashes with diverse features, not apparent with cloudy weather, and contributed to about 5000 additional patient-days in hospital. The increased risk extended to patients with high crash severity as indicated by ambulance involvement, surgical procedures, length of hospital stay, intensive care unit admission, and patient mortality. The increased risk was not easily attributed to differences in alcohol consumption, driving distances, or anomalies of adverse weather. Bright sunlight is associated with an increased risk of a life-threatening motor vehicle crash. An awareness of this risk might inform driver education, trauma staffing, and safety warnings to prevent a life-threatening motor vehicle crash. Level of evidence: Epidemiologic Study, level III. PMID:28072708

  8. The relative contribution of system failures and extreme behaviour in South Australian crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wundersitz, Lisa; Baldock, Matthew; Raftery, Simon

    2014-12-01

    Within the road system, there are compliant road users who may make an error that leads to a crash, resulting in a 'system failure', and there are also road users who deliberately take risks and display dangerous or 'extreme' behaviours that lead to a crash. Crashes resulting from system failures can be addressed through improvements to road system design more readily than crashes resulting from extreme behaviours. The classification of crash causation in terms of system failures or extreme behaviour is important for determining the extent to which a Safe System approach (i.e. improvements to road system design to serve compliant road users) is capable of reducing the number of crashes. This study examined the relative contribution of system failures and extreme behaviour in South Australian crashes as identified from information in Coroner's investigation files and in-depth crash investigations conducted by the Centre for Automotive Safety Research (CASR). The analysis of 189 fatal crashes, 272 non-fatal metropolitan injury crashes and 181 non-fatal rural crashes indicated that very few non-fatal crashes (3% metropolitan, 9% rural) involved extreme behaviour by road users and, even in fatal crashes, the majority (54%) were the result of system failures. Fatal crashes resulting from system failures were more likely than those resulting from extreme behaviour to occur during the day, on weekdays, in rural areas and on roads with high speed limits. Findings from the current study suggest that improvements to the road transport system (i.e. forgiving road infrastructure, appropriate speed limits, and safe vehicle design) can be expected to be much more effective in reducing crashes than concentrating on preventing extreme behaviours. Such a strategy could reduce the incidence and severity of a large proportion of crashes in South Australia.

  9. Crash-Induced Vibration and Safety Assessment of Breakaway-Type Post Structures Made of High Anticorrosion Steels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Youl Lee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study deals with car crash effects and passenger safety assessment of post structures with breakaway types using high performance steel materials. To disperse the impact force when a car crashes into a post, the post could be designed with a breakaway feature. In this study, we used a new high anticorrosion steel for the development of advanced breakaways. Based on the improved Cowper-Symonds model, specific physical properties to the high anticorrosion steel were determined. In particular, the complex mechanism of breakaways was studied using various parameters. The parametric studies are focused on the various effects of car crash on the structural performance and passenger safety of breakaway-type posts. The combined effects of using different steel materials on the dynamic behavers are also investigated.

  10. Improving the crash behavior of structural components made of advanced high strength steel by local heat treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conrads, L.; Daamen, M.; Hirt, G.; Bambach, M.

    2016-11-01

    High manganese TWIP steel belongs to the second generation of advanced high strength steels. During the production of strip material, the microstructure and hence the mechanical properties of TWIP steel can be adapted to the specific needs of crash relevant structures. Whereas typically the whole steel strip is heat-treated after cold rolling, a local heat treatment can be applied to tailor the properties accordingly. In this work, a method is presented to identify a suitable process window for the local laser heat treatment of TWIP steel. The material is strain hardened and afterwards heat-treated at various temperatures for a short time. The influence of the respective heat treatment on microstructure and mechanical properties is evaluated and the most appropriate heat treatment is then reproduced using laser heating. To verify the effect of a local laser heat treatment at a structural component, crash boxes with different heat treatment patterns were produced and tested. The dynamic crash tests show that the local heat treatment can be used to improve the crash behavior of structural components. In addition, their deformation path can be influenced by using adapted heat treatment patterns and the crash behavior can be controlled.

  11. What influences the association between previous and future crashes among cyclists? A propensity score analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandar Tin Tin

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: It is known that experience of a previous crash is related to incidence of future crashes in a cohort of New Zealand cyclists. This paper investigated if the strength of such association differed by crash involvement propensity and by the need for medical care in the previous crash. METHODS: The Taupo Bicycle Study involved 2590 adult cyclists recruited in 2006 and followed over a median period of 4.6 years through linkage to four national databases. The crash involvement propensity was estimated using propensity scores based on the participants' demographic, cycling and residential characteristics. Cox regression modelling for repeated events was performed with multivariate and propensity score adjustments. Analyses were then stratified by quintiles of the propensity score. RESULTS: A total of 801 (31.0% participants reported having experienced at least one bicycle crash in the twelve months prior to the baseline survey. They had a higher risk of experiencing crash events during follow-up (hazard ratio (HR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.28, 1.60 but in the stratified analysis, this association was significant only in the highest two quintiles of the propensity score where the likelihood of having experienced a crash was more than 33%. The association was stronger for previous crashes that had received medical care (HR 1.63; 95% CI: 1.41, 1.88 compared to those that had not (HR 1.30; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.49. CONCLUSIONS: Previous crash experience increased the risk of future crash involvement in high-risk cyclists and the association was stronger for previous crashes attended medically. What distinguishes the high risk group warrants closer investigation, and the findings indicate also that health service providers could play an important role in prevention of bicycle crash injuries.

  12. Predicting crash likelihood and severity on freeways with real-time loop detector data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chengcheng; Tarko, Andrew P; Wang, Wei; Liu, Pan

    2013-08-01

    Real-time crash risk prediction using traffic data collected from loop detector stations is useful in dynamic safety management systems aimed at improving traffic safety through application of proactive safety countermeasures. The major drawback of most of the existing studies is that they focus on the crash risk without consideration of crash severity. This paper presents an effort to develop a model that predicts the crash likelihood at different levels of severity with a particular focus on severe crashes. The crash data and traffic data used in this study were collected on the I-880 freeway in California, United States. This study considers three levels of crash severity: fatal/incapacitating injury crashes (KA), non-incapacitating/possible injury crashes (BC), and property-damage-only crashes (PDO). The sequential logit model was used to link the likelihood of crash occurrences at different severity levels to various traffic flow characteristics derived from detector data. The elasticity analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of the traffic flow variables on the likelihood of crash and its severity.The results show that the traffic flow characteristics contributing to crash likelihood were quite different at different levels of severity. The PDO crashes were more likely to occur under congested traffic flow conditions with highly variable speed and frequent lane changes, while the KA and BC crashes were more likely to occur under less congested traffic flow conditions. High speed, coupled with a large speed difference between adjacent lanes under uncongested traffic conditions, was found to increase the likelihood of severe crashes (KA). This study applied the 20-fold cross-validation method to estimate the prediction performance of the developed models. The validation results show that the model's crash prediction performance at each severity level was satisfactory. The findings of this study can be used to predict the probabilities of crash at

  13. Comparison of injury mortality risk in motor vehicle crash versus other etiologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilgo, Patrick D; Weaver, Ashley A; Barnard, Ryan T; Love, Timothy P; Stitzel, Joel D

    2014-06-01

    The mortality risk ratio (MRR), a measure of the proportion of people who died that sustained a given injury, is reported to be among the most powerful discriminators of mortality following trauma. The primary aim was to determine whether mechanistic differences exist and are quantifiable when comparing MRR-based injury severity across two broadly defined etiologies (motor vehicle crash (MVC) versus non-MVC) for the clarification of important injury types that have some room for improvement by emergency treatment and vehicle design. All International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision (ICD-9) coded injuries in the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) database were stratified into MVC and non-MVC groups and the MRR for each injury was computed within each group. Injuries were classified as 11 different types for MRR comparison between etiologies. Overall, MRRs for specific injuries were 10-18% lower for MVC compared to non-MVC etiologies. MVCs however produced much higher mean MRRs for crushing injuries (0.184 versus 0.072) and internal injuries to the thorax, abdomen, and pelvis (0.200 versus 0.169). Non-MVCs produced much higher MRRs for intracranial injuries (0.199 versus 0.250). Analysis of the top 95% most frequent MVC injuries revealed higher MVC MRR values for 78% of the injuries with MRR ratios indicating an average 50% increase in a given injury's MRR when MVC was the etiology. Addressing the large differences in MRR in between etiologies for identical injuries could provide a reduction in fatalities and may be important to patient triage and vehicle safety design. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. An Analysis of the Relationship between Casualty Risk Per Crash and Vehicle Mass and Footprint for Model Year 2000-2007 Light-Duty Vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Energy Technologies Division. Building Technology and Urban Systems Dept.

    2012-08-01

    NHTSA recently completed a logistic regression analysis (Kahane 2012) updating its 2003 and 2010 studies of the relationship between vehicle mass and US fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT). The new study updates the previous analyses in several ways: updated FARS data for 2002 to 2008 involving MY00 to MY07 vehicles are used; induced exposure data from police reported crashes in several additional states are added; a new vehicle category for car-based crossover utility vehicles (CUVs) and minivans is created; crashes with other light-duty vehicles are divided into two groups based on the crash partner vehicle’s weight, and a category for all other fatal crashes is added; and new control variables for new safety technologies and designs, such as electronic stability controls (ESC), side airbags, and methods to meet voluntary agreement to improve light truck compatibility with cars, are included.

  15. Crash risk of older drivers after attending a mature driver education program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasvadi, Glenyth E; Vavrik, John

    2007-11-01

    The primary aim of this study was to determine if the crash rate of aging drivers can be mitigated by post-license driver education. This study of 884 older drivers who attended the 55 Alive/Mature Driving program was conducted in three phases. Phase 1, which examined self-selection bias of seniors attending the driver education program, and Phase 2, which examined changes in crash rate after attending the program, were carried out through analysis of driving records before and after attending the course. In Phase 3, the use of selection, optimization, and compensation strategies by older male drivers who attended 55 Alive/Mature Driving was addressed through focus group interviews. Findings showed a self-selection bias among older drivers who attended 55 Alive/Mature Driving. Results also showed attendance at the program was associated with an increased number of crashes for men aged 75 years and older, but no effect on subsequent crashes of younger men and women of all ages. Focus group sessions suggested older men who attended the program used fewer strategies to cope with their declining skills. Recognizing and understanding characteristics and behaviors of older drivers who attend remedial driver education is essential to the design and delivery of successful driver safety programs.

  16. Associations of repeated high alcohol use with unsafe driving behaviors, traffic offenses, and traffic crashes among young drivers: Findings from the New Zealand Drivers Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begg, Dorothy; Brookland, Rebecca; Connor, Jennie

    2017-02-17

    The objective of this study was to describe self-reported high alcohol use at each of the 3 licensing stages of graduated driver licensing and its relationship to drink-driving behaviors, intentional risky driving, aggressive driving, alcohol traffic offenses, non-alcohol traffic offenses, and traffic crashes. The New Zealand Drivers Study (NZDS) is a multistage, prospective cohort study of newly licensed drivers interviewed at all 3 stages of the graduated driver licensing system: learner (baseline), restricted (intermediate), and full license. At each stage, alcohol use was self-reported using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C), with high alcohol use defined as a score of ≥4 for males and ≥3 for females. Sociodemographic and personality data were obtained at the baseline interview. Alcohol-related, intentional risky, and aggressive driving behaviors were self-reported following each license stage. Traffic crashes and offenses were identified from police records. Crashes were also self-reported. Twenty-six percent (n = 397) reported no high alcohol use, 22% at one license stage, 30% at 2 stages, and 22% at 3 stages. Poisson regression results (unadjusted and adjusted) showed that the number of stages where high alcohol use was reported was significantly associated with each of the outcomes. For most outcomes, and especially the alcohol-involved outcomes, the relative risk increased with the number of stages of high alcohol use. We found that high alcohol use was common among young newly licensed drivers and those who repeatedly reported high alcohol use were at a significantly higher risk of unsafe driving behaviors. Recently introduced zero blood alcohol concentration (BAC) should help to address this problem, but other strategies are required to target persistent offenders.

  17. Using hierarchical Bayesian binary probit models to analyze crash injury severity on high speed facilities with real-time traffic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Rongjie; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2014-01-01

    Severe crashes are causing serious social and economic loss, and because of this, reducing crash injury severity has become one of the key objectives of the high speed facilities' (freeway and expressway) management. Traditional crash injury severity analysis utilized data mainly from crash reports concerning the crash occurrence information, drivers' characteristics and roadway geometric related variables. In this study, real-time traffic and weather data were introduced to analyze the crash injury severity. The space mean speeds captured by the Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) system on the two roadways were used as explanatory variables in this study; and data from a mountainous freeway (I-70 in Colorado) and an urban expressway (State Road 408 in Orlando) have been used to identify the analysis result's consistence. Binary probit (BP) models were estimated to classify the non-severe (property damage only) crashes and severe (injury and fatality) crashes. Firstly, Bayesian BP models' results were compared to the results from Maximum Likelihood Estimation BP models and it was concluded that Bayesian inference was superior with more significant variables. Then different levels of hierarchical Bayesian BP models were developed with random effects accounting for the unobserved heterogeneity at segment level and crash individual level, respectively. Modeling results from both studied locations demonstrate that large variations of speed prior to the crash occurrence would increase the likelihood of severe crash occurrence. Moreover, with considering unobserved heterogeneity in the Bayesian BP models, the model goodness-of-fit has improved substantially. Finally, possible future applications of the model results and the hierarchical Bayesian probit models were discussed.

  18. The increased risk of road crashes in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD adult drivers: driven by distraction? Results from a responsibility case-control study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamal El Farouki

    Full Text Available Both distractions (external and internal and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD are serious risk factors for traffic crashes and injuries. However, it is still unknown if ADHD (a chronic condition modifies the effect of distractions (irregular hazards on traffic crashes. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of distractions and ADHD on traffic crash responsibility.A responsibility case-control study was conducted in the adult emergency department of Bordeaux University Hospital, France. Subjects were recruited among drivers injured in a motor vehicle crash between April 2010 and August 2011. Responsibility levels were estimated using a standardized method. Frequencies of exposures were compared between drivers responsible and drivers not responsible for the crash. Independent risk factors were identified using a multivariate logistic regression including test interactions between distractions and ADHD.A total of 777 subjects were included in the analysis. Factors associated with responsibility were distraction induced by an external event (adjusted OR (aOR = 1.47; 95% confidence interval (CI [1.06-2.05], distraction induced by an internal thought (aOR = 2.38; CI: [1.50-3.77] and ADHD (aOR = 2.18 CI: [1.22-3.88]. The combined effect of ADHD and external distractions was strongly associated with responsibility for the crash (aOR = 5.79 CI: [2.06-16.32]. Interaction assessment showed that the attributable proportion due to the interaction among participants with both exposures was 68%.Adults with ADHD are a population at higher risk of being responsible for a road traffic crash when exposed to external distractions. This result reinforces the need to diagnose adult ADHD and to include road safety awareness messages delivered by the physician. Developing advanced driver assistance systems devoted to the management of attention lapses is also increasingly relevant for these drivers.

  19. 农村公路典型路段事故风险评价方法%Crash Risk As sessment Method for Typical Sections of Rural Roads Using Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡思涛; 朱艳茹; 项乔君

    2014-01-01

    农村公路急弯、陡坡、路侧险要等典型路段往往是事故易发多发路段。在现阶段农村公路安保工程资金有限的情况下,需对既有典型路段的事故风险进行定量评价和排序,为隐患路段的排查和安保工程分期实施提供依据。在现有研究成果的基础上,构建典型路段事故风险评价指标体系,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的农村公路典型路段事故风险评价方法。该方法能有效集结专家知识和经验定量评价典型路段(包括单一路段和组合路段)的事故风险,并可以随着数据的更新不断完善模型。在农村公路事故资料相对缺乏的情况下,该方法具有较强的实用性。%Typical sections such as sharp turns, steep slopes and dangerous roadsides of the rural roads tend to be crash prone sections.In the case of limited budget for highway safety enhancement project,in order to identi-fy potential high-risk sections and provide the basis for implement in phases of safety enhancement project, it is necessary to evaluate quantitatively and sort the crash risk of typical sections.On the basis of related resear-ches, a crash risk assessment index system for typical sections has been constructed.And a crash risk assess-ment method for typical sections of rural roads using Bayesian networks was proposed.It is effective to evaluate the crash risk of typical sections ( including single sections and combination sections ) by combining expert knowledge and experience with the proposed method.It was also noted that the proposed model could be con-stantly improved as related data updated.The proposed method showed promise to be used for crash risk assess-ment especially when lack of accident relative information.

  20. Contribution of exposure, risk of crash and fatality to explain age- and sex-related differences in traffic-related cyclist mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Ruiz, Virginia; Jiménez-Mejías, Eladio; Amezcua-Prieto, Carmen; Olmedo-Requena, Rocío; Luna-del-Castillo, Juan de Dios; Lardelli-Claret, Pablo

    2015-03-01

    This study was designed to quantify the percent contribution of exposure, risk of collision and fatality rate to the association of age and sex with the mortality rates among cyclists in Spain, and to track the changes in these contributions with time. Data were analyzed for 50,042 cyclists involved in road crashes in Spain from 1993 to 2011, and also for a subset of 13,119 non-infractor cyclists involved in collisions with a vehicle whose driver committed an infraction (used as a proxy sample of all cyclists on the road). We used decomposition and quasi-induced exposure methods to obtain the percent contributions of these three components to the mortality rate ratios for each age and sex group compared to males aged 25-34 years. Death rates increased with age, and the main component of this increase was fatality (around 70%). Among younger cyclists, however, the main component of increased death rates was risk of a collision. Males had higher death rates than females in every age group: this rate increased from 6.4 in the 5-14 year old group to 18.8 in the 65-79 year old group. Exposure, the main component of this increase, ranged between 70% and 90% in all age categories, although the fatality component also contributed to this increase. The contributions of exposure, risk of crash and fatality to cyclist death rates were strongly associated with age and sex. Young male cyclists were a high-risk group because all three components tended to increase their mortality rate.

  1. HEADWAY TIME AND CRASHES AMONG NOVICE TEENS AND EXPERIENCED ADULT DRIVERS IN A SIMULATED LEAD TRUCK BRAKING SCENARIO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Catherine C; Seacrist, Thomas S; Lee, Yi-Ching; Loeb, Helen; Kandadai, Venk; Winston, Flaura K

    2013-01-01

    Driving simulators can be used to evaluate driving performance under controlled, safe conditions. Teen drivers are at particular risk for motor vehicle crashes and simulated driving can provide important information on performance. We developed a new simulator protocol, the Simulated Driving Assessment (SDA), with the goal of providing a new tool for driver assessment and a common outcome measure for evaluation of training programs. As an initial effort to examine the validity of the SDA to differentiate performance according to experience, this analysis compared driving behaviors and crashes between novice teens (n=20) and experienced adults (n=17) on a high fidelity simulator for one common crash scenario, a rear-end crash. We examined headway time and crashes during a lead truck with sudden braking event in our SDA. We found that 35% of the novice teens crashed and none of the experienced adults crashed in this lead truck braking event; 50% of the teens versus 25% of the adults had a headway time headway time, 70% crashed. Among all participants with a headway time of 2-3 seconds, further investigation revealed descriptive differences in throttle position and brake pedal force when comparing teens who crashed, teens who did not crash and adults (none of whom crashed). Even with a relatively small sample, we found statistically significant differences in headway time for adults and teens, providing preliminary construct validation for our new SDA.

  2. Crash risk and aberrant driving behaviors among bus drivers: the role of personality and attitudes towards traffic safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallia, Luca; Lazuras, Lambros; Violani, Cristiano; Lucidi, Fabio

    2015-06-01

    Several studies have shown that personality traits and attitudes toward traffic safety predict aberrant driving behaviors and crash involvement. However, this process has not been adequately investigated in professional drivers, such as bus drivers. The present study used a personality-attitudes model to assess whether personality traits predicted aberrant self-reported driving behaviors (driving violations, lapses, and errors) both directly and indirectly, through the effects of attitudes towards traffic safety in a large sample of bus drivers. Additionally, the relationship between aberrant self-reported driving behaviors and crash risk was also assessed. Three hundred and one bus drivers (mean age=39.1, SD=10.7 years) completed a structured and anonymous questionnaire measuring personality traits, attitudes toward traffic safety, self-reported aberrant driving behaviors (i.e., errors, lapses, and traffic violations), and accident risk in the last 12 months. Structural equation modeling analysis revealed that personality traits were associated to aberrant driving behaviors both directly and indirectly. In particular altruism, excitement seeking, and normlessness directly predicted bus drivers' attitudes toward traffic safety which, in turn, were negatively associated with the three types of self-reported aberrant driving behaviors. Personality traits relevant to emotionality directly predicted bus drivers' aberrant driving behaviors, without any mediation of attitudes. Finally, only self-reported violations were related to bus drivers' accident risk. The present findings suggest that the hypothesized personality-attitudes model accounts for aberrant driving behaviors in bus drivers, and provide the empirical basis for evidence-based road safety interventions in the context of public transport.

  3. The effects of roadway characteristics on farm equipment crashes: A GIS approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenan, Mitchell Joseph

    for every 5 foot increase in shoulder width, the odds of a crash decreased by 8 percent. (CI: 0.86-0.98). Although not statically significant, unpaved roads increased the odds of a crash by 17 percent. (CI: 0.91-1.50) Lastly, it was found that Farm to Market routes increased the odds of a crash by two fold compared to local roads (which make up roughly 67 percent of Iowa public roads). (CI: 1.72-2.43) When the same model was stratified by rurality (urban/rural), it was found that high traffic density leads to a higher risk of a crash in rural areas. Iowa routes and Farm to Market routes had a greater odds of a crash in urban than rural areas, and road and shoulder width were more protective in rural than urban areas. When only using roads with a crash involving an injury versus all other roads as the outcome, Iowa routes and roads with increased speed limits had higher odds for an injury-involved crash, while increased road width were more protective against crashes involving injuries. Findings from the study suggest that several roadway characteristics were associated with farm-equipment crashes. Through administrative and engineering controls, the six static explanatory variables used in this study may be modified to decrease the risk of a farm equipment crash. Speed limit can be modified through administrative controls while traffic density, road and shoulder width, road type, and surface type can be modified through engineering controls. Results from this study provide information that will aid policy-makers in developing safer roads for farm equipment.

  4. Relationships amongst psychological determinants, risk behaviour, and road crashes of young adolescent pedestrians and cyclists : implications for road safety education programmes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Twisk, D.A.M. Commandeur, J.J.F. Vlakveld, W.P. Shope, J.T. & Kok, G.

    2015-01-01

    Road safety education (RSE) assumes that psychological determinants predict risk behaviour, and subsequently that risky road behaviour predicts crash involvement. This study examined the validity of this assumption, by analysing these relationships in two age groups of teen cyclists and pedestrians:

  5. New opioid analgesic use and the risk of injurious single-vehicle crashes in drivers aged 50-80 years : A population-based matched case-control study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Monárrez-Espino, Joel; Laflamme, Lucie; Rausch, Christian; Elling, Berty; Möller, Jette

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: the increasing trend in opioid analgesic use among older drivers has raised concerns about their risk of being involved in car crashes. AIM: to investigate if older drivers who started using opioid analgesics have a higher probability of being involved in injurious crashes. METHODS: popu

  6. Road Crashes in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Empirical Findings ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Generally, among other risk factors we assessed including road conditions and ... right of way to other vehicles were the leading risk factors for road crashes in the city. Key Words: Road Crash; Fatalities; Serious Injuries; Minor Injuries; Safety ...

  7. The use of conspicuity aids by cyclists and risk of crashes involving other road users: a protocol for a population based case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coupland Carol

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Regular cycling has been shown to improve health and has a role in tackling the threats posed by obesity and inactivity. Cycle collisions, particularly those involving motorised vehicles, can lead to significant mortality and morbidity and are currently a barrier to wider uptake of cycling. There is evidence that the conspicuity of cyclists is a factor in many injury collisions. Low-cost, easy to use retro-reflective and fluorescent clothing and accessories ('conspicuity aids' are available. Their effectiveness in reducing cycling collisions is unknown. The study is designed to investigate the relationship between the use of conspicuity aids and risk of collision or evasion crashes for utility and commuter cyclists in the UK. Methods/Design A matched case-control study is proposed. Cases are adult commuter and utility cyclists involved in a crash resulting from a collision or attempted evasion of a collision with another road user recruited at a UK emergency department. Controls are commuter and utility cyclists matched by journey purpose, time and day of travel and geographical area recruited at public and private cycle parking sites. Data on the use of conspicuity aids, crash circumstances, demographics, cycling experience, safety equipment use, journey characteristics and route will be collected using self-completed questionnaires and maps. Conditional logistic regression will be used to calculate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of the risk of a crash when using any item of fluorescent or reflective clothing or equipment. Discussion This study will provide information on the effectiveness of conspicuity aids in reducing the risk of injury to cyclists resulting from crashes involving other road users.

  8. Construction and evaluation of thoracic injury risk curves for a finite element human body model in frontal car crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-Vazquez, Manuel; Davidsson, Johan; Brolin, Karin

    2015-12-01

    There is a need to improve the protection to the thorax of occupants in frontal car crashes. Finite element human body models are a more detailed representation of humans than anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs). On the other hand, there is no clear consensus on the injury criteria and the thresholds to use with finite element human body models to predict rib fractures. The objective of this study was to establish a set of injury risk curves to predict rib fractures using a modified Total HUman Model for Safety (THUMS). Injury criteria at the global, structural and material levels were computed with a modified THUMS in matched Post Mortem Human Subjects (PMHSs) tests. Finally, the quality of each injury risk curve was determined. For the included PMHS tests and the modified THUMS, DcTHOR and shear stress were the criteria at the global and material levels that reached an acceptable quality. The injury risk curves at the structural level did not reach an acceptable quality.

  9. FOG RISKS IN AVIATION. CASE STUDY: PLANE CRASH AT SMOLENSK (RUSSIA ON 10.04.2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ŞCHIOPU COSMIN-LIVIU

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Fog, irrespective of its forms, has a negative impact on all aviation activities. Fog severely diminishes visibility, sometimes to such an extent that landing may become impossible. Fog is a serious weather threat and hazard in aviation and may produce deadly events. One such unfortunate event took place at Smolensk (Russia, on 10.04.2010, when the presidential aircraft, which was transporting Poland’s President, together with an official delegation, to commemorate 70 years from the Katyn massacre, simply crashed down close to the Smolensk North military aerodrome, at local hour 10:41:07.The present study actually makes an inventory of the extremely hazardous flying conditions, by thoroughly analyzing the weather reports and data, as well as visual and synoptic messages or official elements and information from that very day. All these materials show that the airdrome of destination was under the influence of a very active anti-cyclonic ridge, which accounted for very poor meteorological conditions. On such severe weather, the flight was doomed since greatly reduced visibility due to dense fog made landmarks orientation almost impossible and, furthermore, created false perceptions which led to fatal misjudgements and errors.

  10. A Network-Constrained Integrated Method for Detecting Spatial Cluster and Risk Location of Traffic Crash: A Case Study from Wuhan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Nie

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Research on spatial cluster detection of traffic crash (TC at the city level plays an essential role in safety improvement and urban development. This study aimed to detect spatial cluster pattern and identify riskier road segments (RRSs of TC constrained by network with a two-step integrated method, called NKDE-GLINCS combining density estimation and spatial autocorrelation. The first step is novel and involves in spreading TC count to a density surface using Network-constrained Kernel Density Estimation (NKDE. The second step is the process of calculating local indicators of spatial association (LISA using Network-constrained Getis-Ord Gi* (GLINCS. GLINCS takes the smoothed TC density as input value to identify locations of road segments with high risk. This method was tested using the TC data in 2007 in Wuhan, China. The results demonstrated that the method was valid to delineate TC cluster and identify risk road segments. Besides, it was more effective compared with traditional GLINCS using TC counting as input. Moreover, the top 20 road segments with high-high TC density at the significance level of 0.1 were listed. These results can promote a better identification of RRS, which is valuable in the pursuit of improving transit safety and sustainability in urban road network. Further research should address spatial-temporal analysis and TC factors exploration.

  11. Sleep-related crash characteristics: Implications for applying a fatigue definition to crash reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filtness, A J; Armstrong, K A; Watson, A; Smith, S S

    2017-02-01

    Sleep-related (SR) crashes are an endemic problem the world over. However, police officers report difficulties in identifying sleepiness as a crash contributing factor. One approach to improving the sensitivity of SR crash identification is by applying a proxy definition post hoc to crash reports. To identify the prominent characteristics of SR crashes and highlight the influence of proxy definitions, ten years of Queensland (Australia) police reports of crashes occurring in ≥100km/h speed zones were analysed. In Queensland, two approaches are routinely taken to identifying SR crashes. First, attending police officers identify crash causal factors; one possible option is 'fatigue/fell asleep'. Second, a proxy definition is applied to all crash reports. Those meeting the definition are considered SR and added to the police-reported SR crashes. Of the 65,204 vehicle operators involved in crashes 3449 were police-reported as SR. Analyses of these data found that male drivers aged 16-24 years within the first two years of unsupervised driving were most likely to have a SR crash. Collision with a stationary object was more likely in SR than in not-SR crashes. Using the proxy definition 9739 (14.9%) crashes were classified as SR. Using the proxy definition removes the findings that SR crashes are more likely to involve males and be of high severity. Additionally, proxy defined SR crashes are no less likely at intersections than not-SR crashes. When interpreting crash data it is important to understand the implications of SR identification because strategies aimed at reducing the road toll are informed by such data. Without the correct interpretation, funding could be misdirected. Improving sleepiness identification should be a priority in terms of both improvement to police and proxy reporting.

  12. Fleet Fatality Risk and its Sensitivity to Vehicle Mass Change in Frontal Vehicle-to-Vehicle Crashes, Using a Combined Empirical and Theoretical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Yibing; Nusholtz, Guy S

    2015-11-01

    The objective of this study is to analytically model the fatality risk in frontal vehicle-to-vehicle crashes of the current vehicle fleet, and its sensitivity to vehicle mass change. A model is built upon an empirical risk ratio-mass ratio relationship from field data and a theoretical mass ratio-velocity change ratio relationship dictated by conservation of momentum. The fatality risk of each vehicle is averaged over the closing velocity distribution to arrive at the mean fatality risks. The risks of the two vehicles are summed and averaged over all possible crash partners to find the societal mean fatality risk associated with a subject vehicle of a given mass from a fleet specified by a mass distribution function. Based on risk exponent and mass distribution from a recent fleet, the subject vehicle mean fatality risk is shown to increase, while at the same time that for the partner vehicles decreases, as the mass of the subject vehicle decreases. The societal mean fatality risk, the sum of these, incurs a penalty with respect to a fleet with complete mass equality. This penalty reaches its minimum (~8% for the example fleet) for crashes with a subject vehicle whose mass is close to the fleet mean mass. The sensitivity, i.e., the rate of change of the societal mean fatality risk with respect to the mass of the subject vehicle is assessed. Results from two sets of fully regression-based analyses, Kahane (2012) and Van Auken and Zellner (2013), are approximately compared with the current result. The general magnitudes of the results are comparable, but differences exist at a more detailed level. The subject vehicle-oriented societal mean fatality risk is averaged over all possible subject vehicle masses of a given fleet to obtain the overall mean fatality risk of the fleet. It is found to increase approximately linearly at a rate of about 0.8% for each 100 lb decrease in mass of all vehicles in the fleet.

  13. Re-visiting crash-speed relationships: A new perspective in crash modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imprialou, Maria-Ioanna M; Quddus, Mohammed; Pitfield, David E; Lord, Dominique

    2016-01-01

    Although speed is considered to be one of the main crash contributory factors, research findings are inconsistent. Independent of the robustness of their statistical approaches, crash frequency models typically employ crash data that are aggregated using spatial criteria (e.g., crash counts by link termed as a link-based approach). In this approach, the variability in crashes between links is explained by highly aggregated average measures that may be inappropriate, especially for time-varying variables such as speed and volume. This paper re-examines crash-speed relationships by creating a new crash data aggregation approach that enables improved representation of the road conditions just before crash occurrences. Crashes are aggregated according to the similarity of their pre-crash traffic and geometric conditions, forming an alternative crash count dataset termed as a condition-based approach. Crash-speed relationships are separately developed and compared for both approaches by employing the annual crashes that occurred on the Strategic Road Network of England in 2012. The datasets are modelled by injury severity using multivariate Poisson lognormal regression, with multivariate spatial effects for the link-based model, using a full Bayesian inference approach. The results of the condition-based approach show that high speeds trigger crash frequency. The outcome of the link-based model is the opposite; suggesting that the speed-crash relationship is negative regardless of crash severity. The differences between the results imply that data aggregation is a crucial, yet so far overlooked, methodological element of crash data analyses that may have direct impact on the modelling outcomes.

  14. Appropriate analysis of CIREN data: using NASS-CDS to reduce bias in estimation of injury risk factors in passenger vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Michael R; Resler, Alexa; Flannagan, Carol A; Rupp, Jonathan D

    2010-03-01

    The Crash Injury Research Engineering Network (CIREN) database contains detailed medical and crash information on a large number of severely injured occupants in motor vehicle crashes. CIREN's major limitation for stand-alone analyses to explore injury risk factors is that control subjects without a given injury type must have another severe injury to be included in the database. This leads to bias toward the null in the estimation of risk associations. One method to cope with this limitation is to obtain information about occupants without a given injury type from the National Automotive Sampling System's Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS), which is a probability sample of towaway crashes, containing similar crash information, but less medical detail. Combining CIREN and NASS-CDS in this manner takes advantage of the increased sample size when outcomes are available in both datasets; otherwise NASS-CDS can serve as a sample of controls to be combined with CIREN cases, possibly under a sensitivity analysis that includes and excludes NASS-CDS subjects whose status as a control is uncertain. Because CIREN is not a probability sample of crashes that meet its inclusion criteria, we develop a method to estimate the probability of selection for the CIREN cases using data from NASS-CDS. These estimated probabilities are then used to compute "pseudo-weights" for the CIREN cases. These pseudo-weights not only allow for reduced bias in the estimation of risk associations, they allow direct prevalence estimates to be made using medical outcome data available only in CIREN. We illustrate the use of these methods with both simulation studies and application to estimation of prevalence and predictors of AIS 3+ injury risk to head, thorax, and lower extremity regions, as well as prevalence and predictors of acetabular pelvic fractures. Results of these analyses demonstrate combining NASS and CIREN data can yield improvements in mean square error and nominal confidence

  15. Icing – A Risk Factor in Aviation.Case Study: the Plane Crash in the Apuseni Mountains (Romania) on 20.01.2014.

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Icing - a risk factor in aviation. Case study: The plane crash in the Apuseni Mountains (Romania) on 20.01.2014. Icing is a potentially harmful weather phenomenon for flight safety. Icing, irrespective of its forms, has a negative impact on all aviation activities since it severely impedes the aerodynamic properties of an aircraft, sometimes to such an extent that flying and landing may become impossible. Icing is a serious weather threat to aviation and may ultimately lead to deadly events. ...

  16. Children with special health care needs: patterns of safety restraint use, seating position, and risk of injury in motor vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Patty; Kallan, Michael J; O'Neil, Joseph; Bull, Marilyn J; Blum, Nathan J; Durbin, Dennis R

    2009-02-01

    Special health care needs associated with behavioral conditions may influence a child's safety in motor vehicle crashes. The aim of this study was to describe and compare variation in restraint use, seating position, and injury risk in motor vehicle crashes among children with and without special health care needs likely to affect behavior. This study uses data collected between December 1, 1998, and November 30, 2002, in a cross-sectional study of children vehicles in 15 states. Parent reports via a validated telephone survey were used to define precrash special health care needs, restraint status, seating position, and the occurrence of clinically significant injuries by using a previously validated survey instrument. Complete data were collected for 14654 children aged 4 to 15 years, representing 171633 children in crashes. Of these, 152 children were reported to have a special need likely to affect behavior, representing 1883 children. A greater proportion of children with special needs likely to affect behavior were appropriately restrained, particularly among children aged 4 to 8 years. Drivers of children with special needs likely to affect behavior were more often restrained and more often were the child passenger's parent. There were no differences in the rates of front-row seating. There was no significant association between the presence of a special need likely to affect behavior and risk of injury, after adjustment for child/driver characteristics and crash severity. Despite a greater proportion of children with special needs likely to affect behavior using proper vehicle restraint, their injury risk was similar to that of children without these special needs. Primary care pediatricians providing best practices for vehicle safety should consider the unique riding experience and risk of injury among children with special health care needs likely to affect behavior.

  17. Calibration of crash risk models on freeways with limited real-time traffic data using Bayesian meta-analysis and Bayesian inference approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chengcheng; Wang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Li, Zhibin

    2015-12-01

    This study aimed to develop a real-time crash risk model with limited data in China by using Bayesian meta-analysis and Bayesian inference approach. A systematic review was first conducted by using three different Bayesian meta-analyses, including the fixed effect meta-analysis, the random effect meta-analysis, and the meta-regression. The meta-analyses provided a numerical summary of the effects of traffic variables on crash risks by quantitatively synthesizing results from previous studies. The random effect meta-analysis and the meta-regression produced a more conservative estimate for the effects of traffic variables compared with the fixed effect meta-analysis. Then, the meta-analyses results were used as informative priors for developing crash risk models with limited data. Three different meta-analyses significantly affect model fit and prediction accuracy. The model based on meta-regression can increase the prediction accuracy by about 15% as compared to the model that was directly developed with limited data. Finally, the Bayesian predictive densities analysis was used to identify the outliers in the limited data. It can further improve the prediction accuracy by 5.0%.

  18. Commercial vehicles and road safety in Pakistan: exploring high-risk attributes among drivers and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mir, Mohammed Umer; Razzak, Junaid Abdul; Ahmad, Khabir

    2013-01-01

    Road traffic injuries are on the rise in developing countries with a disproportionately high number of crashes involving commercial vehicles. Baseline information on risk factors is necessary to develop targeted prevention programmes. A survey of commercial drivers was conducted at the largest bus and truck station in Rawalpindi, Pakistan. Structured interviews elicited information from 857 drivers on their socio-demographics, high-risk driving behaviours, fatigue, use of drugs while driving, vehicle maintenance and health conditions, as well as crash involvement. A binary logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the factors associated with crash involvement in the last five years. Overall, 92 (11.2%) drivers reported having had a road crash in the last 5 years. Factors independently associated with the occurrence of crashes were alcohol use (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.1-4.4), poor vehicle maintenance (OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.7-7.01) and lack of seat belt use (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.3-5.6). The high prevalence of high-risk attributes in the study population indicates a great need for targeted risk prevention.

  19. Definition of the risk grounding fatalities due to unintentional airplane crashes by calculates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    І.Л. Государська

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available  Estimates of the expected number of grounding fatalities, are given which probably will arise due to accident of air carriers, air taxi and general aviation. Measures regulation of the risk is considered.

  20. High-Risk Pregnancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... NICHD Research Information Clinical Trials Resources and Publications High-Risk Pregnancy: Condition Information Skip sharing on social media links Share this: Page Content A high-risk pregnancy refers to anything that puts the ...

  1. Powered two-wheeler drivers' crash risk associated with the use of bus lanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clabaux, Nicolas; Fournier, Jean-Yves; Michel, Jean-Emmanuel

    2014-10-01

    Authorizing powered two-wheeler drivers to drive in lanes reserved to buses is a measure that is sometimes mentioned to improve mobility conditions for these users. But what effect would this measure have on the safety of these users and on the safety of the other users with whom they share the traffic space? The objective of this study is to contribute elements to help answer this question. More precisely, the objective is to estimate the risk of having an accident per kilometer driven by powered two-wheeler drivers who drive in bus lanes and to compare this risk with that of powered two-wheeler drivers who drive in general traffic lanes. Using the bodily injury accidents recorded by the police over two years on 13 roads in the city of Marseille and a campaign of periodical observations of powered two-wheeler traffic, we estimated the risk per kilometer driven by powered two-wheeler drivers who drive in bus lanes and compared it with that of drivers who do not drive in them. The results show that the risk for powered two-wheeler drivers who drive in bus lanes of being involved in a bodily injury accident is significantly higher than the risk run by drivers who drive in general traffic lanes. For the 13 roads studied, it is on average 3.25 times higher (95% CI: 2.03; 5.21). In the current situation, powered two-wheeler drivers who drive in bus lanes are less safe than those who drive in general traffic lanes. The analysis of police reports suggests that part of this increased risk comes from collisions between automobile drivers turning right and powered two-wheelers driving in the bus lane who continue straight ahead. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Improved neck injury risk curves for tension and extension moment measurements of crash dummies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertz, H J; Prasad, P

    2000-11-01

    This paper describes improvements made to the injury risk curves for peak neck tension, peak neck extension moment and a linear combination of tension and extension moment that produce peak stress in the anterior-longitudinal ligament at the head-to-neck junction. Data from previously published experiments that correlated neck injuries to 10-week-old, anesthetized pigs and neck response measurements of a 3-year-old child dummy that were subjected to similar airbag deployments are updated and used to generate Normal probability curves for the risk of AIS >/= 3 neck injury for the 3-year-old child. These curves are extended to other sizes and ages by normalizing for neck size. Factors for percent of muscle tone and ligamentous failure stress as a function of age are incorporated in the risk analysis. The most sensitive predictor of AIS > 3 neck injury for this data set is peak neck tension. If two possible outliers are deleted from the data set, then the combined criterion of extension moment and axial force becomes the most sensitive predictor which is consistent with expectations.

  3. Comparison of teen and adult driver crash scenarios in a nationally representative sample of serious crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Catherine C; Curry, Allison E; Kandadai, Venk; Sommers, Marilyn S; Winston, Flaura K

    2014-11-01

    Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death and acquired disability during the first four decades of life. While teen drivers have the highest crash risk, few studies examine the similarities and differences in teen and adult driver crashes. We aimed to: (1) identify and compare the most frequent crash scenarios-integrated information on a vehicle's movement prior to crash, immediate pre-crash event, and crash configuration-for teen and adult drivers involved in serious crashes, and (2) for the most frequent scenarios, explore whether the distribution of driver critical errors differed for teens and adult drivers. We analyzed data from the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey, a nationally representative study of serious crashes conducted by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration from 2005 to 2007. Our sample included 642 16- to 19-year-old and 1167 35- to 54-year-old crash-involved drivers (weighted n=296,482 and 439,356, respectively) who made a critical error that led to their crash's critical pre-crash event (i.e., event that made the crash inevitable). We estimated prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to compare the relative frequency of crash scenarios and driver critical errors. The top five crash scenarios among teen drivers, accounting for 37.3% of their crashes, included: (1) going straight, other vehicle stopped, rear end; (2) stopped in traffic lane, turning left at intersection, turn into path of other vehicle; (3) negotiating curve, off right edge of road, right roadside departure; (4) going straight, off right edge of road, right roadside departure; and (5) stopped in lane, turning left at intersection, turn across path of other vehicle. The top five crash scenarios among adult drivers, accounting for 33.9% of their crashes, included the same scenarios as the teen drivers with the exception of scenario (3) and the addition of going straight, crossing over an intersection, and continuing on a

  4. Integrated traffic conflict model for estimating crash modification factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahdah, Usama; Saccomanno, Frank; Persaud, Bhagwant

    2014-10-01

    Crash modification factors (CMFs) for road safety treatments are usually obtained through observational models based on reported crashes. Observational Bayesian before-and-after methods have been applied to obtain more precise estimates of CMFs by accounting for the regression-to-the-mean bias inherent in naive methods. However, sufficient crash data reported over an extended period of time are needed to provide reliable estimates of treatment effects, a requirement that can be a challenge for certain types of treatment. In addition, these studies require that sites analyzed actually receive the treatment to which the CMF pertains. Another key issue with observational approaches is that they are not causal in nature, and as such, cannot provide a sound "behavioral" rationale for the treatment effect. Surrogate safety measures based on high risk vehicle interactions and traffic conflicts have been proposed to address this issue by providing a more "causal perspective" on lack of safety for different road and traffic conditions. The traffic conflict approach has been criticized, however, for lacking a formal link to observed and verified crashes, a difficulty that this paper attempts to resolve by presenting and investigating an alternative approach for estimating CMFs using simulated conflicts that are linked formally to observed crashes. The integrated CMF estimates are compared to estimates from an empirical Bayes (EB) crash-based before-and-after analysis for the same sample of treatment sites. The treatment considered involves changing left turn signal priority at Toronto signalized intersections from permissive to protected-permissive. The results are promising in that the proposed integrated method yields CMFs that closely match those obtained from the crash-based EB before-and-after analysis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Do Restricted Driver's Licenses Lower Crash Risk among Older Drivers? A Survival Analysis of Insurance Data from British Columbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasvadi, Glenyth Caragata; Wister, Andrew

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: Faced with an aging driving population, interest is increasing in the use of restricted licenses or "graduated delicensing" for older drivers to allow them to safely retain a driver's license. The primary purpose of this study was to determine whether restricted licenses are successful at mitigating number of crashes per year…

  6. Do Restricted Driver's Licenses Lower Crash Risk among Older Drivers? A Survival Analysis of Insurance Data from British Columbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasvadi, Glenyth Caragata; Wister, Andrew

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: Faced with an aging driving population, interest is increasing in the use of restricted licenses or "graduated delicensing" for older drivers to allow them to safely retain a driver's license. The primary purpose of this study was to determine whether restricted licenses are successful at mitigating number of crashes per year…

  7. Frontal crash simulation of vehicles against lighting columns using FEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yehia A. Abdel-Nasser

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available There are many severe and fatal crashes that result from vehicles colliding with street columns such as lighting columns. These cause extremely high impact forces and deformation on the frontal area of the car. The objective of the study is to demonstrate the frontal crash simulation of vehicle against lighting columns to examine injury risk and potential of safety. In particular, various FE models are used to perform contact–impact nonlinear dynamic analysis of lighting columns with vehicle. In this paper Abaqus explicit code is used to numerically simulate the crash of the vehicle with present columns and other lighting columns fabricated from a new suggested material. The acceleration, contact force and deformed energy at the frontal region of the vehicle are traced. It is found that the lighting columns with new suggested material have impact properties to decelerate the vehicle and absorb higher energy during impact.

  8. 会计稳健性、信息不透明与股价暴跌风险%Accounting Conservatism, Information Opacity and Stock Price Crash Risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王冲; 谢雅璐

    2013-01-01

    选取2001年至2009年A股数据,从市场信息的角度,通过考察会计稳健性、信息不透明程度与股价暴跌风险三者之间的交互影响,探索会计稳健性与信息环境之间的互动关系,采用Logistic回归和OLS回归模型进行实证分析.研究结果表明,伴随着会计稳健性的提高,公司股价的暴跌风险显著降低,证实会计稳健性作为会计信息质量特征所具有的市场功能;信息不透明程度越高的企业,其股价暴跌风险也越高.进一步考察信息不透明程度对会计稳健性治理效应的影响,发现会计稳健性对于股价暴跌风险的治理作用在信息不透明程度高的公司更加显著,也可以理解为会计稳健性和信息透明度之间可以部分替代.%Selecting data from Chinese A-share companies during 2001 and 2009 as samples, we take market information views to investigate the relationship among the accounting conservatism, information opacity and stock price crash risk, explore the interactive relationship between the conservatism and information environment and use Logistic regression model and OLS regression model for empirical analysis. The results indicate that along with the improvement of accounting conservatism, the stock price crash risk significantly decreases, which proves the market functions of accounting conservatism as accounting information quality characteristics. The stock price crash risk is greater in enterprises with higher degree of information opacity. Our research further examines how the information opacity affects the governance effect of accounting conservatism and we find the governance effect of accounting conservatism on the stock price crash risk is more distinct in enterprises with higher degree of information opacity. In another word, accounting conservatism and information transparency can partially substitute each other.

  9. Older drivers, crashes and injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koppel, Sjaanie; Bohensky, Megan; Langford, Jim; Taranto, David

    2011-10-01

    This article aimed to identify the main features of older driver casualty crashes, including detailed descriptions of injury outcomes. Data were obtained from the Transport Accident Commission insurance claims database for 2 groups of drivers: aged 41 to 55 years (middle-aged drivers) and aged 65 years and older (older drivers). In terms of crash circumstances, the majority of crashes involved a collision with another vehicle (70.0% of middle-aged drivers and 68.7% of older drivers). The 2 main maneuvers at the time of crash were driving straight ahead (44.6% of middle-aged drivers and 42.8% of older drivers) and turning right (equivalent of left turn in North America; 15.2% of middle-aged drivers and 17.6% of older drivers). In terms of injury outcomes, older drivers sustained a significantly higher proportion of injuries to the thorax (30.9% compared to 18.5% of middle-aged drivers). Conversely, a significantly higher proportion of middle-aged drivers sustained some form of injury to the neck (30.6% compared to 12.1% of older drivers). These findings highlight the situations that are particularly risky for older drivers and provide important insights for developing solutions to reduce older driver crash and injury risk.

  10. Mortality Risk in Pediatric Motor Vehicle Crash Occupants: Accounting for Developmental Stage and Challenging Abbreviated Injury Scale Metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doud, Andrea N; Weaver, Ashley A; Talton, Jennifer W; Barnard, Ryan T; Schoell, Samantha L; Petty, John K; Stitzel, Joel D

    2015-01-01

    Survival risk ratios (SRRs) and their probabilistic counterpart, mortality risk ratios (MRRs), have been shown to be at odds with Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) severity scores for particular injuries in adults. SRRs have been validated for pediatrics but have not been studied within the context of pediatric age stratifications. We hypothesized that children with similar motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries may have different mortality risks (MR) based upon developmental stage and that these MRs may not correlate with AIS severity. The NASS-CDS 2000-2011 was used to define the top 95% most common AIS 2+ injuries among MVC occupants in 4 age groups: 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-18 years. Next, the National Trauma Databank 2002-2011 was used to calculate the MR (proportion of those dying with an injury to those sustaining the injury) and the co-injury-adjusted MR (MRMAIS) for each injury within 6 age groups: 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-18, 0-18, and 19+ years. MR differences were evaluated between age groups aggregately, between age groups based upon anatomic injury patterns and between age groups on an individual injury level using nonparametric Wilcoxon tests and chi-square or Fisher's exact tests as appropriate. Correlation between AIS and MR within each age group was also evaluated. MR and MRMAIS distributions of the most common AIS 2+ injuries were right skewed. Aggregate MR of these most common injuries varied between the age groups, with 5- to 9-year-old and 10- to 14-year-old children having the lowest MRs and 0- to 4-year-old and 15- to 18-year-old children and adults having the highest MRs (all P injuries imparted the greatest mortality risk in all age groups with median MRMAIS ranging from 0 to 6% and 0 to 4.5%, respectively. Injuries to particular body regions also varied with respect to MR based upon age. For example, thoracic injuries in adults had significantly higher MRMAIS than such injuries among 5- to 9-year-olds and 10- to 14-year-olds (P =.04; P injuries

  11. 分析师利益冲突、乐观偏差与股价崩盘风险%Conflicts of Interest, Analyst Optimism and Stock Price Crash Risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    许年行; 江轩宇; 伊志宏; 徐信息

    2012-01-01

    “股价崩盘风险”是当前金融危机背景下财务学的一个研究热点。本文使用2003—2010年中国A股上市公司的数据,研究分析师乐观偏差是否影响上市公司股价崩盘风险,并考察分析师面临的“利益冲突”是否会加剧乐观偏差对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现:(1)分析师乐观偏差与上市公司未来股价崩盘风险之间显著正相关.且此关系在“牛市”更为显著;(2)机构投资者持股比例越高,机构投资者数量越多,公司存在再融资行为,以及来自前五大佣金收入券商的分析师比例越高,分析师乐观偏差与崩盘风险之间的正向关系就更为显著,说明“利益冲突”会加剧两者的关系。本文的研究对于全面认识分析师在资本市场中的作用,以及如何降低我国股价崩盘风险、促进股市平稳发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。%Stock price crash risk is a hot issue in finance research. Using a sample of A-share listed firms in China for the period 2003-2010, this paper investigates the relationship between analyst optimism and stock price crash risk at firm level, and how conflicts of interest affect this relationship. We provide strong evidence that analyst optimism is positively associated with stock price crash risk. And, this relation is more pronounced in the bull market. Moreover, Results show that the impact of analyst optimism on crash risk is more pronounced when institutional ownership is higher, the number of institutional investors is larger, there is seasoned equity offering and debt issuing, and the ratio of analysts from brokerage firms with high brokerage commissions is higher. These results indicate that conflicts of interest in sell-side research do affect this relation. Our paper contributes to the literature on stock price crash risk, and has important implications for our understanding the role of analysts and the development of capital

  12. Motor Carrier Crash Data -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — Contains data on large trucks and buses involved in Federally reportable crashes as per Title 49 U.S.C. Part 390.5 (crashes involving a commercial motor vehicle, and...

  13. Regional frontal gray matter volume associated with executive function capacity as a risk factor for vehicle crashes in normal aging adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroyuki Sakai

    Full Text Available Although low executive functioning is a risk factor for vehicle crashes among elderly drivers, the neural basis of individual differences in this cognitive ability remains largely unknown. Here we aimed to examine regional frontal gray matter volume associated with executive functioning in normal aging individuals, using voxel-based morphometry (VBM. To this end, 39 community-dwelling elderly volunteers who drove a car on a daily basis participated in structural magnetic resonance imaging, and completed two questionnaires concerning executive functioning and risky driving tendencies in daily living. Consequently, we found that participants with low executive function capacity were prone to risky driving. Furthermore, VBM analysis revealed that lower executive function capacity was associated with smaller gray matter volume in the supplementary motor area (SMA. Thus, the current data suggest that SMA volume is a reliable predictor of individual differences in executive function capacity as a risk factor for vehicle crashes among elderly persons. The implication of our results is that regional frontal gray matter volume might underlie the variation in driving tendencies among elderly drivers. Therefore, detailed driving behavior assessments might be able to detect early neurodegenerative changes in the frontal lobe in normal aging adults.

  14. 摩托车事故伤的伤情特点与影响因素%Injury patterns and risk factors of motorcycle crashes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈海斌

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the injury patterns and risk factors of motorcycle crashes.DATA SOURCES: A computer-based online search was undertaken to identify English articles about motorcycle crashes published from January 1980 to December 2005 in Medline database and from January 1995 to December 2005 in EMCC database, the keywords were "motorcycle,crash, injury, traffic accident". Meanwhile, a manual search of relevant journals and monographs was performed for the articles and data published in Chinese.STUDY SELECTION: Based on the principles of reliability, advancement and efficiency, the data were primarily examined, and the original articles in this research field were selected to look up the full-texts. The repetitive studies and reviews were excluded.DATA EXTRACTION: Totally 87 articles were collected about the incidence, mechanism and protective methods of motorcycle crashes and motorcycle injuries, 36 of them were excluded, and finally 51 were enrolled.DATA SYNTHESIS: The most important variable affecting mortality in motorcycle crashes is head injury. Wearing a helmet should continue to be compulsory, as this single measure can help to reduce the mortality in motorcyclists. Thoracic and abdominal trauma as well as pelvic ring fractures associated with long bone injuries appears to be the secondary factors contributing to reduced survival. The injured motorcyclists were predominant young, novice inexperienced riders and male. A fatal outcome was more likely to be associated with a larger engine capacity motorcycle, collision with a heavy vehicle, head on collision, and collision at a non-junction road. Alcohol and excessive speed were common factors associated with motorcyclist crash involvement.CONCLUSION: Motorcycle crashes are an increasing public health problem in the present world. A thorough understanding of the injury patterns and risk factors in motorcyclists may improve the initial assessment and management of these patients and reduce the risk of

  15. AISI/DOE Technology Roadmap Program: Characterization of Fatigue and Crash Performance of New Generation High Strength Steels for Automotive Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brenda Yan; Dennis Urban

    2003-04-21

    A 2-year project (2001-2002) to generate fatigue and high strain data for a new generation of high strength steels (HSS) has been completed in December 2002. The project tested eleven steel grades, including Dual Phase (DP) steels, Transformation-Induced Plasticity (TRIP) steels, Bake Hardenable (BH) steels, and conventional High Strength Low Alloy (HSLA) steels. All of these steels are of great interest in automotive industry due to the potential benefit in weight reduction, improved fuel economy, enhanced crash energy management and total system cost savings. Fatigue behavior includes strain controlled fatigue data notch sensitivity for high strength steels. High strain rate behavior includes stress-strain data for strain rates from 0.001/s to 1000/s, which are considered the important strain rate ranges for crash event. The steels were tested in two phases, seven were tested in Phase 1 and the remaining steels were tested in Phase. In a addition to the fatigue data and high st rain rate data generated for the steels studied in the project, analyses of the testing results revealed that Advanced High Strength Steels (AHSS) exhibit significantly higher fatigue strength and crash energy absorption capability than conventional HSS. TRIP steels exhibit exceptionally better fatigue strength than steels of similar tensile strength but different microstructure, for conditions both with or without notches present

  16. Icing – A Risk Factor in Aviation.Case Study: the Plane Crash in the Apuseni Mountains (Romania on 20.01.2014.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şchiopu Cosmin-Liviu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Icing - a risk factor in aviation. Case study: The plane crash in the Apuseni Mountains (Romania on 20.01.2014. Icing is a potentially harmful weather phenomenon for flight safety. Icing, irrespective of its forms, has a negative impact on all aviation activities since it severely impedes the aerodynamic properties of an aircraft, sometimes to such an extent that flying and landing may become impossible. Icing is a serious weather threat to aviation and may ultimately lead to deadly events. One such unfortunate event took place in the Western (Apuseni Mountains on the 20.01.2014, when an aircraft which was transporting a medical team on a humanitarian mission, simply crashed down in the area of the Western (Apuseni Mountains, at around 4:00 pm local time. The present study actually makes an inventory of the extremely hazardous flying conditions, by thoroughly analyzing the weather reports and data, as well as visual and synoptic messages or official elements and information from that very day. All these materials show that the flight route and the airdrome of destination were under the influence of a front which accounted for very poor meteorological conditions. On such bad weather, the flight was practically doomed to failure since low snow and sleet-bearing clouds were hanging down over the mountaintops. Flying straight through these clouds made any landmarks impossible to be seen and, furthermore, lack of orientation created false perceptions which led to fatal misjudgements and errors.

  17. An insight into the performance of road barriers - redistribution of barrier-relevant crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Yaotian; Tarko, Andrew P

    2016-11-01

    Unlike most of traffic safety treatments that prevent crashes, road barriers reduce the severity of crash outcomes by replacing crashes with a high risk of severe injury and fatality (such as median crossover head-on collisions or collisions with high-hazard objects) with less risky events (such as collisions with barriers). This "crash conversion" is actually more complex than one-to-one replacement and it has not been studied yet. The published work estimated the reduction of selected types of crashes (typically, median crossover collisions) or the overall effect of barriers on crash severity. The objective of this study was to study the probabilities of various types of crash events possible under various road and barrier scenarios. The estimated probabilities are conditional given that at least one vehicle left the travelled way and the resulted crash had been recorded. The results are meant to deliver a useful insight onto the conversion of crashes by barriers from more to less risky to help better understand the mechanism of crash severity reduction. Such knowledge should allow engineers more accurate estimation of barriers' benefits and help researchers evaluate barriers' performance to improve the barrier's design. Seven barrier-relevant crash events possible after a vehicle departs the road could be identified based on the existing crash data and their probabilities estimated given the presence and location of three types of barriers: median concrete barriers, median and roadside W-beam steel guardrails, and high-tension median cable barriers. A multinomial logit model with variable outcomes was estimated based on 2049 barrier-relevant crashes occurred between 2003 and 2012 on 1258 unidirectional travelled ways in Indiana. The developed model allows calculating the changes in the probabilities of the barrier-relevant crash events. The results of this study indicated that road departures lead to less frequent crossings of unprotected (no barriers) medians

  18. High risk pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardita Donoso Bernales

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available It is estimated that roughly 20% of pregnancies fall into the high risk category, which in turn are responsible for over 80% of perinatal adverse outcome. Modern obstetrics has been very successful in reducing maternal morbidity and mortality. It has focused mainly on fetal and neonatal aspects, and on identifying the subgroup of pregnant women that need greater surveillance and care because of clearly identifiable risk factors. The article describes the preconceptional advice, its components and recommendations for its implementation, as well as its role in maternal and perinatal risk assessment. These interventions attempt to reduce the rates of maternal and perinatal mortality.

  19. Robust human body model injury prediction in simulated side impact crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golman, Adam J; Danelson, Kerry A; Stitzel, Joel D

    2016-01-01

    This study developed a parametric methodology to robustly predict occupant injuries sustained in real-world crashes using a finite element (FE) human body model (HBM). One hundred and twenty near-side impact motor vehicle crashes were simulated over a range of parameters using a Toyota RAV4 (bullet vehicle), Ford Taurus (struck vehicle) FE models and a validated human body model (HBM) Total HUman Model for Safety (THUMS). Three bullet vehicle crash parameters (speed, location and angle) and two occupant parameters (seat position and age) were varied using a Latin hypercube design of Experiments. Four injury metrics (head injury criterion, half deflection, thoracic trauma index and pelvic force) were used to calculate injury risk. Rib fracture prediction and lung strain metrics were also analysed. As hypothesized, bullet speed had the greatest effect on each injury measure. Injury risk was reduced when bullet location was further from the B-pillar or when the bullet angle was more oblique. Age had strong correlation to rib fractures frequency and lung strain severity. The injuries from a real-world crash were predicted using two different methods by (1) subsampling the injury predictors from the 12 best crush profile matching simulations and (2) using regression models. Both injury prediction methods successfully predicted the case occupant's low risk for pelvic injury, high risk for thoracic injury, rib fractures and high lung strains with tight confidence intervals. This parametric methodology was successfully used to explore crash parameter interactions and to robustly predict real-world injuries.

  20. Crash Rates of Quebec Drivers with Medical Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Dow, Jamie; Gaudet, Michel; Turmel, Émilie

    2013-01-01

    Using a databank that combines comprehensive medical data with the driving records of 96% of the drivers in Quebec, odds ratios were calculated for crash risk involving death or serious injury according to the diagnosis of medical conditions traditionally associated with increased crash risk. Results were controlled for age, sex, residence (rural/urban), possession of a professional licence (classes 1 – 4), previous involvement in a crash with injury or death and for the presence of other med...

  1. Risk factors for vascular occlusive events and death due to bleeding in trauma patients; an analysis of the CRASH-2 cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Pealing

    Full Text Available Vascular occlusive events can complicate recovery following trauma. We examined risk factors for venous and arterial vascular occlusive events in trauma patients and the extent to which the risk of vascular occlusive events varies with the severity of bleeding.We conducted a cohort analysis using data from a large international, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial (The CRASH-2 trial [1]. We studied the association between patient demographic and physiological parameters at hospital admission and the risk of vascular occlusive events. To assess the extent to which risk of vascular occlusive events varies with severity of bleeding, we constructed a prognostic model for the risk of death due to bleeding and assessed the relationship between risk of death due to bleeding and risk of vascular occlusive events. There were 20,127 trauma patients with outcome data including 204 (1.01% patients with a venous event (pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis and 200 (0.99% with an arterial event (myocardial infarction or stroke. There were 81 deaths due to vascular occlusive events. Increasing age, decreasing systolic blood pressure, increased respiratory rates, longer central capillary refill times, higher heart rates and lower Glasgow Coma Scores (all p<0.02 were strong risk factors for venous and arterial vascular occlusive events. Patients with more severe bleeding as assessed by predicted risk of haemorrhage death had a greatly increased risk for all types of vascular occlusive event (all p<0.001.Patients with severe traumatic bleeding are at greatly increased risk of venous and arterial vascular occlusive events. Older age and blunt trauma are also risk factors for vascular occlusive events. Effective treatment of bleeding may reduce venous and arterial vascular occlusive complications in trauma patients.

  2. The Pattern of Road Traffic Crashes in South East Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rad, Mahdieh; Martiniuk, Alexandra Lc; Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza; Mohammadi, Mahdi; Rashedi, Fariborz; Ghasemi, Ardavan

    2016-09-01

    In the present study, the epidemiologic aspects of road traffic crashes in South East of Iran are described. This cross-sectional study included the profile of 2398 motor vehicle crashes recorded in the police office in one Year in South East of Iran. Data collected included: demographics, the type of crash, type of involved vehicle, location of crash and factors contributing to the crash. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. Collisions with other vehicles or objects contributed the highest proportion (62.4%) of motor vehicle crashes. Human factors including careless driving, violating traffic laws, speeding, and sleep deprivation/fatigue were the most important causal factors accounting for 90% of road crashes. Data shows that 41% of drivers were not using a seat belt at the time of crash. One- third of the crashes resulted in injury (25%) or death (5%). Reckless driving such as speeding and violation of traffic laws are major risk factors for crashes in the South East of Iran. This highlights the need for education along with traffic law enforcement to reduce motor vehicle crashes in future.

  3. [Detecting high risk pregnancy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doret, Muriel; Gaucherand, Pascal

    2009-12-20

    Antenatal care is aiming to reduce maternal land foetal mortality and morbidity. Maternal and foetal mortality can be due to different causes. Their knowledge allows identifying pregnancy (high risk pregnancy) with factors associated with an increased risk for maternal and/or foetal mortality and serious morbidity. Identification of high risk pregnancies and initiation of appropriate treatment and/or surveillance should improve maternal and/or foetal outcome. New risk factors are continuously described thanks to improvement in antenatal care and development in biology and cytopathology, increasing complexity in identifying high risk pregnancies. Level of risk can change all over the pregnancy. Ideally, it should be evaluated prior to the pregnancy and at each antenatal visit. Clinical examination is able to screen for intra-uterin growth restriction, pre-eclampsia, threatened for preterm labour; ultrasounds help in the diagnosis of foetal morphological anomalies, foetal chromosomal anomalies, placenta praevia and abnormal foetal growth; biological exams are used to screen for pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, trisomy 21 (for which screening method just changed), rhesus immunisation, seroconversion for toxoplasmosis or rubeola, unknown infectious disease (syphilis, hepatitis B, VIH). During pregnancy, most of the preventive strategies have to be initiated during the first trimester or even before conception. Prevention for neural-tube defects, neonatal hypocalcemia and listeriosis should be performed for all women. On the opposite, some measures are concerning only women with risk factors such as prevention for toxoplasmosis, rhesus immunization (which recently changed), tobacco complications and pre-eclampsia and intra-uterine growth factor restriction.

  4. AP statistics crash course

    CERN Document Server

    D'Alessio, Michael

    2012-01-01

    AP Statistics Crash Course - Gets You a Higher Advanced Placement Score in Less Time Crash Course is perfect for the time-crunched student, the last-minute studier, or anyone who wants a refresher on the subject. AP Statistics Crash Course gives you: Targeted, Focused Review - Study Only What You Need to Know Crash Course is based on an in-depth analysis of the AP Statistics course description outline and actual Advanced Placement test questions. It covers only the information tested on the exam, so you can make the most of your valuable study time. Our easy-to-read format covers: exploring da

  5. 会计稳健性、产品市场竞争与股价崩盘风险%Accounting Conservatism, Product Market Competition and Stock Price Crash Risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王雷

    2015-01-01

    采用我国上市公司2007—2012年数据,考察会计稳健性、产品市场竞争与股价崩盘风险之间的关系,实证结果显示:会计政策越稳健,企业未来的股价崩盘风险越低;产品市场竞争程度越高,企业未来的股价崩盘风险越低;产品市场竞争加强了会计稳健性和股价崩盘风险的关系。这说明会计稳健性和产品市场竞争均发挥了一定的治理作用,而且就降低股价崩盘风险而言,产品市场竞争与会计稳健性之间存在互补关系。%With the data of China’s listed companies during the period of 2007-2012 as a sample, this paper makes an analy-sis on the relationship between accounting conservatism, product market competition and firm’s future stock price crash risk. The results indicate that the accounting conservatism is significantly positive correlation with stock price crash risks, more competition in product market is associated with less stock price crash risks in the future. We also confirm that product market competition reinforces the relationship between accounting conservatism and stock price crash risk. It suggests that both ac-counting conservatism and product market competition play a significant role in corporate governance, and there exists a com-plementary relationship between product market competition and accounting conservatism in terms of reducing crash risk.

  6. Factors associated with crash severity on rural roadways in Wyoming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debbie S. Shinstine

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The ability to identify risk factors associated with crashes is critical to determine appropriate countermeasures for improving roadway safety. Many studies have identified risk factors for urban systems and intersections, but few have addressed crashes on rural roadways, and none have analyzed crashes on Indian Reservations. This study analyzes crash severity for rural highway systems in Wyoming. These rural systems include interstates, state highways, rural county local roads, and the roadway system on the Wind River Indian Reservation (WRIR. In alignment with the Wyoming strategic highway safety goal of reducing critical crashes (fatal and serious injury, crash severity was treated as a binary response in which crashes were classified as severe or not severe. Multiple logistic regression models were developed for each of the highway systems. Five effects were prevalent on all systems including animals, driver impairment, motorcycles, mean speed, and safety equipment use. With the exception of animal crashes, all of these effects increased the probability that a crash would be severe. Based upon these results, DOTs can pursue effective policies and targeted design decisions to reduce the severity of crashes on rural highways.

  7. 审计行业专长与股价崩盘风险--基于信息不对称与异质信念视角的检验%Auditor Industry Specialization and Stock Price Crash Risk:Evidence form Information Asymmetry and Heterogeneous Belief

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    熊家财

    2015-01-01

    使用2003-2012年A股非金融类上市公司数据,研究审计行业专长与股价崩盘风险之间的关系,发现审计行业专长有助于降低上市公司未来的股价崩盘风险,在信息不对称更严重以及投资者异质信念更大的公司,审计行业专长与股价崩盘风险之间的负相关关系更为显著。%Using data from publicly listed firms of A shares of non-financial securities in China during 2003 and 2012, we find that the auditor industry specialization is associated with a lower likelihood of a firm’ s future stock price crashes. Moreo-ver, we find that the relationship between auditor industry specialization and crash risk is more pronounced for firms with high-er information asymmetry and with more serious heterogeneous beliefs among investors. The findings of this paper indicate that enhancing corporate governance effect of audit, reducing stock price crash risk and promoting the development of capital mar-ket, the Chinese Government should continue to strengthen the construction of auditor industry specialization, deepen state en-terprise reforms and improve legal system.

  8. Analysis of fatal road traffic crashes in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackaah, Williams; Adonteng, David O

    2011-03-01

    The major objective of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with fatal road traffic crashes (RTCs) and to propose remedial measures to address them. Fatal RTC data for the period 2005-2007 in Ghana were analysed using the Micro-computer Accident Analysis Package (MAAP) software. Other transport-related research works were reviewed and incorporated in the article. The study showed that pedestrians accounted for 42% of all road traffic fatalities and nearly one-third (33%) of these crashes occurred during the early night-time hours. Children alone constituted almost one-third of all pedestrian fatalities. The occupants of goods vehicles accounted for 12% of all road traffic fatalities although goods vehicles constitute just about 9% of the total motor vehicle population in Ghana. Pedestrians, especially children bear a disproportionately high share of road traffic fatalities in Ghana. The risk of being killed as a pedestrian in traffic is exacerbated during night time. Excessive vehicular speeds, inappropriate use of goods vehicles for passenger transport, excessive loading and inadequate trauma care are the key contributory risk factors to the high number of road traffic fatalities. Concerted efforts spanning education, engineering, enforcement and trauma care are needed to stem the rise in fatal crashes in Ghana.

  9. Crash Under Investigation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The cause of a fatal cargo plane accident in Shanghai is still unknown The flight data recorder of the Zimbabwean cargo plane that crashed on November 28 at Shanghai Pudong International Airport has been found near the crash scene,local aviation control authorities said.

  10. Road crash costs.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2010-01-01

    Road crashes result in all kinds of social costs, such as medical costs, production loss, human losses, property damage, settlement costs and costs due to congestion. Studies into road crash costs and their trends are carried out quite regularly. In 2009, the costs amounted to € 12.5 billion, or 2.2

  11. Weather Conditions, Weather Information and Car Crashes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriaan Perrels

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Road traffic safety is the result of a complex interaction of factors, and causes behind road vehicle crashes require different measures to reduce their impacts. This study assesses how strongly the variation in daily winter crash rates associates with weather conditions in Finland. This is done by illustrating trends and spatiotemporal variation in the crash rates, by showing how a GIS application can evidence the association between temporary rises in regional crash rates and the occurrence of bad weather, and with a regression model on crash rate sensitivity to adverse weather conditions. The analysis indicates that a base rate of crashes depending on non-weather factors exists, and some combinations of extreme weather conditions are able to substantially push up crash rates on days with bad weather. Some spatial causation factors, such as variation of geophysical characteristics causing systematic differences in the distributions of weather variables, exist. Yet, even in winter, non-spatial factors are normally more significant. GIS data can support optimal deployment of rescue services and enhance in-depth quantitative analysis by helping to identify the most appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. However, the supportive role of GIS should not be inferred as existence of highly significant spatial causation.

  12. Opportunities for crash and injury reduction: A multiharm approach for crash data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallory, Ann; Kender, Allison; Moorhouse, Kevin

    2017-05-29

    A multiharm approach for analyzing crash and injury data was developed for the ultimate purpose of getting a richer picture of motor vehicle crash outcomes for identifying research opportunities in crash safety. Methods were illustrated using a retrospective analysis of 69,597 occupant cases from NASS CDS from 2005 to 2015. Occupant cases were analyzed by frequency and severity of outcome: fatality, injury by Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS), number of cases, attributable fatality, disability, and injury costs. Comparative analysis variables included precrash scenario, impact type, and injured body region. Crash and injury prevention opportunities vary depending on the search parameters. For example, occupants in rear-end crash scenarios were more frequent than in any other precrash configuration, yet there were significantly more fatalities and serious injury cases in control loss, road departure, and opposite direction crashes. Fatality is most frequently associated with head and thorax injury, and disability is primarily associated with extremity injury. Costs attributed to specific body regions are more evenly distributed, dominated by injuries to the head, thorax, and extremities but with contributions from all body regions. Though AIS 3+ can be used as a single measure of harm, an analysis based on multiple measures of harm gives a much more detailed picture of the risk presented by a particular injury or set of crash conditions. The developed methods represent a new approach to crash data mining that is expected to be useful for the identification of research priorities and opportunities for reduction of crashes and injuries. As the pace of crash safety improvement accelerates with innovations in both active and passive safety, these techniques for combining outcome measures for insights beyond fatality and serious injury will be increasingly valuable.

  13. Occupant and crash characteristics for case occupants with cervical spine injuries sustained in motor vehicle collisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Deborah M; Kufera, Joseph A; Ho, Shiu M; Ryb, Gabriel E; Dischinger, Patricia C; O'Connor, James V; Scalea, Thomas M

    2011-02-01

    .5%). In multivariate analysis, age, rollover impact, and airbag-only restraint systems were associated with an increased odds of CSI. Using the population-based National Automotive Sampling System's Crashworthiness Data System data, 0.35% of occupants sustained a CSI. In univariate analysis, older age was noted to be a significant risk factor for CSI. Airbag-only restraint systems and both rollover and lateral crashes were also identified as risk factors for CSI. In addition, increasing delta v was highly associated with CSIs. In multivariate analysis, similar risk factors were noted. Of all the restraint systems, seat belt use without airbag deployment was found to be the most protective restraint system (OR=0.29, 95% CI=0.16-0.50), whereas airbag-only restraint was associated with the highest risk of CSI (OR=3.54, 95% CI=2.29-5.46). Despite advances in automotive safety, CSIs sustained in MVC continue to occur too often. Older case occupants are at an increased risk of CSI. Rollover crashes and severe crashes led to a much higher risk of CSI than other types and severity of MVCs. Seat belt use is very effective in preventing CSI, whereas airbag deployment may increase the risk of occupants sustaining a CSI. More protection for older occupants is needed and protection in both rollover and lateral crashes should remain a focus of the automotive industry. The design of airbag restraint systems should be evaluated so that they are not causative of serious injury. In addition, engineers should continue to focus on improving automotive design to minimize the risk of spinal injury to occupants in high severity crashes.

  14. Effects of obesity on occupant responses in frontal crashes: a simulation analysis using human body models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xiangnan; Cao, Libo; Reed, Matthew P; Rupp, Jonathan D; Hu, Jingwen

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of obesity on occupant responses in frontal crashes using whole-body human finite element (FE) models representing occupants with different obesity levels. In this study, the geometry of THUMS 4 midsize male model was varied using mesh morphing techniques with target geometries defined by statistical models of external body contour and exterior ribcage geometry. Models with different body mass indices (BMIs) were calibrated against cadaver test data under high-speed abdomen loading and frontal crash conditions. A parametric analysis was performed to investigate the effects of BMI on occupant injuries in frontal crashes based on the Taguchi method while controlling for several vehicle design parameters. Simulations of obese occupants predicted significantly higher risks of injuries to the thorax and lower extremities in frontal crashes compared with non-obese occupants, which is consistent with previous field data analyses. These higher injury risks are mainly due to the increased body mass and relatively poor belt fit caused by soft tissues for obese occupants. This study demonstrated the feasibility of using a parametric human FE model to investigate the obesity effects on occupant responses in frontal crashes.

  15. Structural analysis of a metal spent-fuel storage cask in an aircraft crash for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almomani, Belal, E-mail: balmomani@kaist.ac.kr [Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sanghoon, E-mail: shlee1222@kmu.ac.kr [Department of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Keimyung University, Dalgubeol-daero 1095, Dalseo-gu, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Hyun Gook, E-mail: hyungook@kaist.ac.kr [Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • Several engine-applied loads with different locations of impact on the storage cask body were implemented. • Cask structural responses due to the influence of engine impact loadings were analyzed. • Leakage path areas from lid closure openings were numerically calculated. • Release fractions that depend on the generated seal opening areas and fuel damage ratios were estimated. - Abstract: Evaluations of the impact resistance of a dry storage cask under mechanical impact loadings resulting from a large commercial aircraft crash have become an important issue for designers and evaluators, in order to promote interim dry storage activities and to evaluate design safety margins. This study presents a method to evaluate the structural integrity of a generic metal cask subjected to various mechanical loading conditions, which represent aircraft engine impacts, on different locations of the cask body. Thirty representative impact conditions are analyzed to provide a comprehensive evaluation of cask damage response. The applied engine impact load–time functions were carefully re-derived by utilizing CRIEPI’s proposed curve through Riera’s approach for six impact velocities, and applied to five locations on a freestanding cask: lateral impacts on the lower half, center of gravity, and upper half of the cask body, corner impact on the lid closure, and vertical impact on the center of the lid closure. A nonlinear dynamic finite element analysis is performed to evaluate the dynamic response of the cask lid closure system and to calculate the lid gaps. The release fractions from the cask to the environment for each impact condition are preliminarily estimated by referring to a proposed methodology from literature. It is believed that this paper presents a systematic process to connect the mechanical analysis of a cask response at the moment of aircraft engine impact with its radiological consequence analysis.

  16. Crash patterns at signalized intersections

    OpenAIRE

    Polders, Evelien; Daniels, Stijn; HERMANS, Elke; Brijs, Tom; Wets, Geert

    2015-01-01

    Traffic signals are often implemented to provide for efficient movement and to improve traffic safety. Nevertheless, severe crashes still occur at signalized intersections. This study aims to improve the understanding of signalized intersection safety by identifying crash types, locations and factors associated with signalized intersections. For this purpose, 1295 police-reported crashes at 87 signalized intersections are analyzed based on detailed crash descriptions, i.e. crash data and c...

  17. Life-threatening motor vehicle crashes in bright sunlight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redelmeier, Donald A; Raza, Sheharyar

    2017-01-01

    Bright sunlight may create visual illusions that lead to driver error, including fallible distance judgment from aerial perspective. We tested whether the risk of a life-threatening motor vehicle crash was increased when driving in bright sunlight.This longitudinal, case-only, paired-comparison analysis evaluated patients hospitalized because of a motor vehicle crash between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2014. The relative risk of a crash associated with bright sunlight was estimated by evaluating the prevailing weather at the time and place of the crash compared with the weather at the same hour and location on control days a week earlier and a week later.The majority of patients (n = 6962) were injured during daylight hours and bright sunlight was the most common weather condition at the time and place of the crash. The risk of a life-threatening crash was 16% higher during bright sunlight than normal weather (95% confidence interval: 9-24, P vehicle crash. An awareness of this risk might inform driver education, trauma staffing, and safety warnings to prevent a life-threatening motor vehicle crash.

  18. Westmoreland County Crash Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — Contains locations and information about every crash incident reported to the police in Westmoreland County from 2011 to 2015. Fields include injury severity,...

  19. Allegheny County Crash Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — Contains locations and information about every crash incident reported to the police in Allegheny County from 2004 to 2015. Fields include injury severity,...

  20. Beaver County Crash Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — Contains locations and information about every crash incident reported to the police in Beaver County from 2011 to 2015. Fields include injury severity, fatalities,...

  1. Washington County Crash Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — Contains locations and information about every crash incident reported to the police in Washington County from 2011 to 2015. Fields include injury severity,...

  2. Butler County Crash Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — Contains locations and information about every crash incident reported to the police in Butler County from 2011 to 2015. Fields include injury severity, fatalities,...

  3. Identification methods of key contributing factors in crashes with high numbers of fatalities and injuries in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yikai; Li, Yiming; King, Mark; Shi, Qin; Wang, Changjun; Li, Pingfan

    2016-11-16

    In China, serious road traffic crashes (SRTCs) are those in which there are 10-30 fatalities, 50-100 serious injuries, or a total cost of 50-100 million RMB (U.S.$8-16 M), and particularly serious road traffic crashes (PSRTCs) are those that are more severe or costly. Due to the large number of fatalities and injuries as well as the negative public reaction they elicit, SRTCs and PSRTCs have become of great concern to China during recent years. The aim of this study is to identify the main factors contributing to these road traffic crashes and to propose preventive measures to reduce their number. 49 contributing factors of the SRTCs and PSRTCs that occurred from 2007 to 2013 were collected from the database "In-depth investigation and analysis system for major road traffic crashes" (IIASMRTC) and were analyzed through the integrated use of principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to determine the primary and secondary groups of contributing factors. Speeding and overloading of passengers were the primary contributing factors, featuring in up to 66.3 and 32.6% of accidents, respectively. Two secondary contributing factors were road related: lack of or nonstandard roadside safety infrastructure and slippery roads due to rain, snow, or ice. The current approach to SRTCs and PSRTCs is focused on the attribution of responsibility and the enforcement of regulations considered relevant to particular SRTCs and PSRTCs. It would be more effective to investigate contributing factors and characteristics of SRTCs and PSRTCs as a whole to provide adequate information for safety interventions in regions where SRTCs and PSRTCs are more common. In addition to mandating a driver training program and publicization of the hazards associated with traffic violations, implementation of speed cameras, speed signs, markings, and vehicle-mounted Global Positioning Systems (GPS) are suggested to reduce speeding of passenger vehicles, while increasing regular checks by

  4. Characteristics of Crashes with Farm Equipment that Increase Potential for Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peek-Asa, Corinne; Sprince, Nancy L.; Whitten, Paul S.; Falb, Scott R.; Madsen, Murray D.; Zwerling, Craig

    2007-01-01

    Context: Crash fatality and injury rates are higher on rural roadways than other roadway types. Although slow-moving farm vehicles and equipment are risk factors on rural roads, little is known about the characteristics of crashes with farm vehicles/equipment. Purpose: To describe crashes and injuries for the drivers of farm vehicles/equipment and…

  5. Bubbles and market crashes

    CERN Document Server

    Youssefmir, M; Hogg, T; Youssefmir, Michael; Huberman, Bernardo; Hogg, Tad

    1994-01-01

    We present a dynamical theory of asset price bubbles that exhibits the appearance of bubbles and their subsequent crashes. We show that when speculative trends dominate over fundamental beliefs, bubbles form, leading to the growth of asset prices away from their fundamental value. This growth makes the system increasingly susceptible to any exogenous shock, thus eventually precipitating a crash. We also present computer experiments which in their aggregate behavior confirm the predictions of the theory.

  6. Critical market crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, D.

    2003-04-01

    This review presents a general theory of financial crashes and of stock market instabilities that his co-workers and the author have developed over the past seven years. We start by discussing the limitation of standard analyses for characterizing how crashes are special. The study of the frequency distribution of drawdowns, or runs of successive losses shows that large financial crashes are “outliers”: they form a class of their own as can be seen from their statistical signatures. If large financial crashes are “outliers”, they are special and thus require a special explanation, a specific model, a theory of their own. In addition, their special properties may perhaps be used for their prediction. The main mechanisms leading to positive feedbacks, i.e., self-reinforcement, such as imitative behavior and herding between investors are reviewed with many references provided to the relevant literature outside the narrow confine of Physics. Positive feedbacks provide the fuel for the development of speculative bubbles, preparing the instability for a major crash. We demonstrate several detailed mathematical models of speculative bubbles and crashes. A first model posits that the crash hazard drives the market price. The crash hazard may sky-rocket at some times due to the collective behavior of “noise traders”, those who act on little information, even if they think they “know”. A second version inverses the logic and posits that prices drive the crash hazard. Prices may skyrocket at some times again due to the speculative or imitative behavior of investors. According the rational expectation model, this entails automatically a corresponding increase of the probability for a crash. We also review two other models including the competition between imitation and contrarian behavior and between value investors and technical analysts. The most important message is the discovery of robust and universal signatures of the approach to crashes. These precursory

  7. Mechanism of Start and Development of Aircraft Crash Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinkel, I. Irving; Preston, G. Merritt; Pesman, Gerard J.

    1952-01-01

    Full-scale aircraft crashes, devised to give surge fuel spillage and a high incidence of fire, were made to investigate the mechanism of the start and development of aircraft crash fires. The results are discussed. herein. This investigation revealed the characteristics of the ignition sources, the manner in which the combustibles spread., the mechanism of the union of the combustibles and ignition sources, and the pertinent factors governing the development of a crash fire as observed in this program.

  8. Brainstem injury in motor vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viano, David C; Parenteau, Chantal S

    2017-10-03

    This is a descriptive study of the frequency and risk for brainstem injury by crash type, belt use, and crash severity (delta-V). NASS-CDS electronic cases were reviewed to see whether the transition from vehicles without advanced airbags and seat belts and side airbags and curtains to vehicles with the safety technologies has influenced the risk for brainstem injury. 1994-2013 NASS-CDS was analyzed to determine the number of brainstem injuries in nonejected adults (15+ years old) in vehicle crashes. Crashes were grouped by front, side, rear, and rollover. The effect of belt use was investigated. Light vehicles were included with model year (MY) 1994+. Occupants with severe head injury (Abbreviated Injury Scale [AIS] 4+) and Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 4+F injury were also determined. The risk for injury with standard errors was determined using the MAIS 0+F exposure by belt use and crash type. NASS-CDS electronic cases were studied with brainstem injury in 2001-2013 MY vehicles. NASS-CDS indicates there are 872 ± 133 cases of brainstem injury per year. About 16.0% of AIS 4+ head injury involves the brainstem. For belted occupants, the highest risk for brainstem injury was in side impacts at 0.065 ± 0.010%. In contrast, the highest risk for brainstem injury was 0.310 ± 0.291% in rear impacts and 0.310 ± 0.170% in rollovers for unbelted occupants. The risk for brainstem injury increased with crash severity. The highest risk for brainstem injury was 3.54 ± 1.45% in crashes with >72 km/h (>45 mph) delta-V. Exponential functions fit the change in risk with delta-V. Eighteen NASS-CDS electronic cases showed that brainstem injury occurred in very severe collisions where the occupant experienced multiple injuries from intrusion or impact on vehicle structures stiffened by deformation. The risk for brainstem injury in belted occupants has remained essentially constant over 20 years, whereas the risk for MAIS 4+F injury has declined 38.3%. The prevention

  9. Braking news: link between crash severity and crash avoidance maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity, with differences emerging for different critical events. Moreover, results showed two trends:(a) most drivers failed to act when facing critical events and (b) drivers rarely performed crash avoidance maneuvers that were correlated with a higher probability...... of lower crash severity. These trends suggest that efforts to understand the mechanisms of reactions to different critical events should be made to improve in-vehicle warning systems, promote responsible driving behavior, and design forgiving infrastructures....

  10. Spatial panel analyses of alcohol outlets and motor vehicle crashes in California: 1999-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponicki, William R; Gruenewald, Paul J; Remer, Lillian G

    2013-06-01

    Although past research has linked alcohol outlet density to higher rates of drinking and many related social problems, there is conflicting evidence of density's association with traffic crashes. An abundance of local alcohol outlets simultaneously encourages drinking and reduces driving distances required to obtain alcohol, leading to an indeterminate expected impact on alcohol-involved crash risk. This study separately investigates the effects of outlet density on (1) the risk of injury crashes relative to population and (2) the likelihood that any given crash is alcohol-involved, as indicated by police reports and single-vehicle nighttime status of crashes. Alcohol outlet density effects are estimated using Bayesian misalignment Poisson analyses of all California ZIP codes over the years 1999-2008. These misalignment models allow panel analysis of ZIP-code data despite frequent redefinition of postal-code boundaries, while also controlling for overdispersion and the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Because models control for overall retail density, estimated alcohol-outlet associations represent the extra effect of retail establishments selling alcohol. The results indicate a number of statistically well-supported associations between retail density and crash behavior, but the implied effects on crash risks are relatively small. Alcohol-serving restaurants have a greater impact on overall crash risks than on the likelihood that those crashes involve alcohol, whereas bars primarily affect the odds that crashes are alcohol-involved. Off-premise outlet density is negatively associated with risks of both crashes and alcohol involvement, while the presence of a tribal casino in a ZIP code is linked to higher odds of police-reported drinking involvement. Alcohol outlets in a given area are found to influence crash risks both locally and in adjacent ZIP codes, and significant spatial autocorrelation also suggests important relationships across geographical units

  11. Catastrophic Equatorial Icing Caused the Air France 447 and Malaysian 370 Crashes: Risks of More Such Disasters Are Increased By Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, C. H.

    2014-12-01

    Dangerous icing conditions near the equator have been observed, and may account for the tragic crashes of Air France 447 in 2009 and Malaysian Airlines 370 in 2014, not pilot error in either case. Six cases of engine failures from icing were reported in 2013 at high altitudes for 747-8 and 787 Dreamliner planes at tropical latitudes (journalofcosmology.com volume 23). Lack of horizontal Coriolis forces accounts for the extreme intermittency of equatorial turbulence and turbulent mixing, Baker and Gibson (1987). Intermittency factors inferred from the available microstructure data sets were much larger than those at higher latitudes, reflecting the wide range of scales of the turbulence cascade from small scales to large in the horizontal direction. Lognormal statistical analysis implies mean values of dissipation rates are likely to be 30,000 times larger than mode values at the equator, compared to only 2000 times larger at midlatitudes. Modern stratified turbulence theory (journalofcosmology.com volume 21) shows turbulent mixing of heat, mass, momentum, and chemical species in natural fluids such as the ocean, atmosphere, and cosmological fluids is dominated by mixing chimneys directed perpendicular to vertical and radial layers of gravitational stratification by the inertial vortex forces that define turbulence. Rarely, thick columns of supercooled steam reach cruising altitudes of jet aircraft. After entering such a column, the plane is doomed.

  12. Road crash costs.

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    Road crashes result in all kinds of social costs, such as medical costs, production loss, human losses, property damage, settlement costs and costs due to congestion. Studies into road crash costs and their trends are carried out quite regularly. In 2009, the costs amounted to € 12.5 billion, or 2.2% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Insight into these costs is used for policy preparation and evaluation, and makes it possible to compare them with costs in other areas. Another important app...

  13. Safe Routes to Play? Pedestrian and Bicyclist Crashes Near Parks in Los Angeles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerrett, Michael; Su, Jason G.; MacLeod, Kara E.; Hanning, Cooper; Houston, Douglas; Wolch, Jennifer

    2017-01-01

    Background Areas near parks may present active travelers with higher risks than in other areas due to the confluence of more pedestrians and bicyclists, younger travelers, and the potential for increased traffic volumes. These risks may be amplified in low-income and minority neighborhoods due to generally higher rates of active travel or lack of safety infrastructure. This paper examines active travel crashes near parks and builds on existing research around disparities in park access and extends research from the Safe Routes to School and Safe Routes to Transit movements to parks. Methods We utilized the Green Visions Parks coverage, encompassing Los Angeles County and several other cities in the LA Metropolitan area. We used negative bionomial regression modeling techniques and ten years of geolocated pedestrian and bicyclist crash data to assess the number of active travel injuries within a quarter mile (~400 m) buffer around parks. We controlled for differential exposures to active travel using travel survey data and Bayesian smoothing models. Results Of 1,311,736 parties involved in 608,530 crashes, there were 896,359 injuries and 7317 fatalities. The number of active travel crash injuries is higher within a quarter-mile of a park, with a ratio of 1.52 per 100,000 residents, compared to areas outside that buffer. This higher rate near parks is amplified in neighborhoods with high proportions of minority and low-income residents. Higher traffic levels are highly predictive of active travel crash injuries. Conclusions Planners should consider the higher risks of active travel near parks and the socioeconomic modification of these risks. Additional traffic calming and safety infrastructure may be needed to provide safe routes to parks. PMID:27689542

  14. Motor vehicle fatal crash profiles of 13-15-year-olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Allan F; Tison, Julie

    2012-04-01

    The goal was to provide a description of fatal crashes involving 13-15-year-old drivers and passengers. Information was obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 2005-2009. The 1,994 passenger deaths during the 2005-2009 period far exceeded the number of driver deaths (299) or the number of drivers in fatal crashes (744). Passenger deaths occurring with teenage drivers, particularly 16-17-year-olds, increased with passenger age. Most 13-15-year-old drivers in crashes were driving either with no license or permit (63%), or with a permit but without required adult presence (10 percent). Fatal crashes involving illegal driving were most likely to involve high-risk actions such as speeding and nonuse of belts. Supervised learners were few in number (about 12 per year) and had the lowest rates of high-risk actions. The main issues for 13-15-year-olds' motor vehicle deaths are passenger deaths and driving without a license or adult supervision. Parents, pediatricians, and others need to recognize the increase in motor vehicle occupant deaths that occurs in the early teen years. Copyright © 2012 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Crash protection of stock car racing drivers--application of biomechanical analysis of Indy car crash research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melvin, John W; Begeman, Paul C; Faller, Ronald K; Sicking, Dean L; McClellan, Scott B; Maynard, Edwin; Donegan, Michael W; Mallott, Annette M; Gideon, Thomas W

    2006-11-01

    Biomechanical analysis of Indy car crashes using on-board impact recorders (Melvin et al. 1998, Melvin et al. 2001) indicates that Indy car driver protection in high-energy crashes can be achieved in frontal, side, and rear crashes with severities in the range of 100 to 135 G peak deceleration and velocity changes in the range of 50 to 70 mph. These crashes were predominantly single-car impacts with the rigid concrete walls of oval tracks. This impressive level of protection was found to be due to the unique combination of a very supportive and tight-fitting cockpit-seating package, a six-point belt restraint system, and effective head padding with an extremely strong chassis that defines the seat and cockpit of a modern Indy car. In 2000 and 2001, a series of fatal crashes in stock car racing created great concern for improving the crash protection for drivers in those racecars. Unlike the Indy car, the typical racing stock car features a more spacious driver cockpit due to its resemblance to the shape of a passenger car. The typical racing seat used in stock cars did not have the same configuration or support characteristics of the Indy car seat, and five-point belt restraints were used. The tubular steel space frame chassis of a stock car also differs from an Indy car's composite chassis structure in both form and mechanical behavior. This paper describes the application of results of the biomechanical analysis of the Indy car crash studies to the unique requirements of stock car racing driver crash protection. Sled test and full-scale crash test data using both Hybrid III frontal crash anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) and BioSID side crash ATDs for the purpose of evaluating countermeasures involving restraint systems, seats and head/neck restraints has been instrumental in guiding these developments. In addition, the development of deformable walls for oval tracks (the SAFER Barrier) is described as an adjunct to improved occupant restraint through control

  16. Motor vehicle road crashes during the fourteenth and fifteenth years of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begg, D J; Langley, J D; Chalmers, D

    1992-04-22

    From a sample of 848 teenagers, 50 individuals reported a total of 52 motor vehicle road crash events: 42 involved a car, six a motorcycle, and four a bus, over a two year period. Males and females were equally represented in each type of crash. Twenty-one of the car crashes, four of the motorcycle crashes and three of the bus crashes involved injury. The injuries sustained in the motorcycle crashes were predominantly to the extremities and in the other crashes they were mainly to the head or face. On average drivers less than 25 years of age had more passengers in their cars and were involved in more nighttime crashes. A seat belt was worn in only 18 (44%) of the car crashes. A motorcycle helmet was worn in four of the six motorcycle crashes. Six (15%) crashes were reported to have involved alcohol. The main areas of risk associated with motor vehicle road crashes involving teenagers and young adults have been addressed by legislation or the graduated drivers' licensing system. An evaluation of these measures is required to establish whether they are effective.

  17. Blind spot crashes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2009-01-01

    Crashes involving lorries turning right and cyclists going straight ahead usually have very serious consequences for the cyclist. The cyclist, who has right of way, is often overlooked by the lorry driver. For his part, the cyclist is often unaware that the lorry driver has not seen him or that the

  18. Identify sequence of events likely to result in severe crash outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Kun-Feng; Thor, Craig P; Ardiansyah, Muhammad Nashir

    2016-11-01

    The current practice of crash characterization in highway engineering reduces multiple dimensions of crash contributing factors and their relative sequential connections, crash sequences, into broad definitions, resulting in crash categories such as head-on, sideswipe, rear-end, angle, and fixed-object. As a result, crashes that are classified in the same category may contain many different crash sequences. This makes it difficult to develop effective countermeasures because these crash categorizations are based on the outcomes rather than the preceding events. Consequently, the efficacy of a countermeasure designed for a specific type of crash may not be appropriate due to different pre-crash sequences. This research seeks to explore the use of event sequence to characterize crashes. Additionally, this research seeks to identify crash sequences that are likely to result in severe crash outcomes so that researchers can develop effective countermeasures to reduce severe crashes. This study utilizes the sequence of events from roadway departure crashes in the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), and converts the information to form a new categorization called "crash sequences." The similarity distance between each pair of crash sequences were calculated using the Optimal Matching approach. Cluster analysis was applied to group crash sequences that are etiologically similar in terms of the similarity distance. A hybrid model was constructed to mitigate the potential sample selection bias of FARS data, which is biased toward more severe crashes. The major findings include: (1) in terms of a roadway departure crash, the crash sequences that are most likely to result in high crash severity include a vehicle that first crosses the median or centerline, runs-off-road on the left, and then collides with a roadside fixed-object; (2) seat-belt and airbag usage reduces the probability of dying in a roadway departure crash by 90%; and (3) occupants who are seated on the

  19. Crash Risk Prediction Modeling Based on the Traffic Conflict Technique and a Microscopic Simulation for Freeway Interchange Merging Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shen; Xiang, Qiaojun; Ma, Yongfeng; Gu, Xin; Li, Han

    2016-11-19

    This paper evaluates the traffic safety of freeway interchange merging areas based on the traffic conflict technique. The hourly composite risk indexes (HCRI) was defined. By the use of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photography and video processing techniques, the conflict type and severity was judged. Time to collision (TTC) was determined with the traffic conflict evaluation index. Then, the TTC severity threshold was determined. Quantizing the weight of the conflict by direct losses of different severities of freeway traffic accidents, the calculated weight of the HCRI can be obtained. Calibration of the relevant parameters of the micro-simulation simulator VISSIM is conducted by the travel time according to the field data. Variables are placed into orthogonal tables at different levels. On the basis of this table, the trajectory file of every traffic condition is simulated, and then submitted into a surrogate safety assessment model (SSAM), identifying the number of hourly traffic conflicts in the merging area, a statistic of HCRI. Moreover, the multivariate linear regression model was presented and validated to study the relationship between HCRI and the influencing variables. A comparison between the HCRI model and the hourly conflicts ratio (HCR), without weight, shows that the HCRI model fitting degree was obviously higher than the HCR. This will be a reference to design and implement operational planners.

  20. Crash Risk Prediction Modeling Based on the Traffic Conflict Technique and a Microscopic Simulation for Freeway Interchange Merging Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shen Li

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the traffic safety of freeway interchange merging areas based on the traffic conflict technique. The hourly composite risk indexes (HCRI was defined. By the use of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV photography and video processing techniques, the conflict type and severity was judged. Time to collision (TTC was determined with the traffic conflict evaluation index. Then, the TTC severity threshold was determined. Quantizing the weight of the conflict by direct losses of different severities of freeway traffic accidents, the calculated weight of the HCRI can be obtained. Calibration of the relevant parameters of the micro-simulation simulator VISSIM is conducted by the travel time according to the field data. Variables are placed into orthogonal tables at different levels. On the basis of this table, the trajectory file of every traffic condition is simulated, and then submitted into a surrogate safety assessment model (SSAM, identifying the number of hourly traffic conflicts in the merging area, a statistic of HCRI. Moreover, the multivariate linear regression model was presented and validated to study the relationship between HCRI and the influencing variables. A comparison between the HCRI model and the hourly conflicts ratio (HCR, without weight, shows that the HCRI model fitting degree was obviously higher than the HCR. This will be a reference to design and implement operational planners.

  1. Characteristics of Single Vehicle Crashes with a Teen Driver in South Carolina, 2005-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shults, Ruth A; Bergen, Gwen; Smith, Tracy J; Cook, Larry; Kindelberger, John; West, Bethany

    2017-09-22

    Teens' crash risk is highest in the first years of independent driving. Circumstances surrounding fatal crashes have been widely documented, but less is known about factors related to nonfatal teen driver crashes. This study describes single vehicle nonfatal crashes involving the youngest teen drivers (15-17 years), compares these crashes to single vehicle nonfatal crashes among adult drivers (35-44 years) and examines factors related to nonfatal injury producing crashes for teen drivers. Police crash data linked to hospital inpatient and emergency department data for 2005-2008 from the South Carolina Crash Outcomes Data Evaluation System (CODES) were analyzed. Nonfatal, single vehicle crashes involving passenger vehicles occurring on public roadways for teen (15-17 years) drivers were compared with those for adult (35-44 years) drivers on temporal patterns and crash risk factors per licensed driver and per vehicle miles traveled. Vehicle miles traveled by age group was estimated using data from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. Multivariable log-linear regression analysis was conducted for teen driver crashes to determine which characteristics were related to crashes resulting in a minor/moderate injury or serious injury to at least one vehicle occupant. Compared with adult drivers, teen drivers in South Carolina had 2.5 times the single vehicle nonfatal crash rate per licensed driver and 11 times the rate per vehicle mile traveled. Teen drivers were nearly twice as likely to be speeding at the time of the crash compared with adult drivers. Teen driver crashes per licensed driver were highest during the afternoon hours of 3:00-5:59 pm and crashes per mile driven were highest during the nighttime hours of 9:00-11:59 pm. In 66% of the teen driver crashes, the driver was the only occupant. Crashes were twice as likely to result in serious injury when teen passengers were present than when the teen driver was alone. When teen drivers crashed while

  2. Increased inequality in mortality from road crashes among Arabs and Jews in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magid, Avi; Leibovitch-Zur, Shalhevet; Baron-Epel, Orna

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies in several countries have shown that the economically disadvantaged seem to have a greater risk of being involved in a car crash. The aim of the present study was to compare rates and trends in mortality and injury from road crashes by age among the Arab and Jewish populations in Israel. Data on road crashes with casualties (2003-2011) from the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics were analyzed. Age-adjusted road crash injury rates and mortality rates for 2003 to 2011 were calculated and time trends for each age group and population group are presented. Time trend significance was evaluated by linear regression models. Arabs in Israel are at increased risk of injury and mortality from road crashes compared to Jews. Road crash injury rates have significantly decreased in both populations over the last decade, although the rates have been persistently higher among Arabs. Road crash mortality rates have also decreased significantly in the Jewish population but not in the Arab population. This implies an increase in the disparity in mortality between Jews and Arabs. The most prominent differences in road crash injury and mortality rates between Arabs and Jews can be observed in young adults and young children. The reduction in road crashes in the last decade is a positive achievement. However, the reductions are not equal among Arabs and Jews in Israel. Therefore, an increase in the disparities in mortality from road crashes is apparent. Public health efforts need to focus specifically on decreasing road crashes in the Arab community.

  3. Projecting Fatalities in Crashes Involving Older Drivers, 2000-2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, P.S.

    2001-03-23

    As part of this research effort, we developed a new methodology for projecting elderly traffic crash fatalities. This methodology separates exposure to crashes from crash risk per se, and further divides exposure into two components, the number of miles driven and the likelihood of being a driver. This component structure permits conceptually different determinants of traffic fatalities to be projected separately and has thorough motivation in behavioral theory. It also permits finer targeting of particular aspects of projections that need improvement and closer linking of projections to possible policy instruments for influencing them.

  4. Related risk factors for injury severity of non-motor vehicle crashes in Hefei%合肥市非机动车交通事故伤情相关危险因素研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕东来; 方健; 朱捷; 刘萍

    2012-01-01

    Objective To explore the related risk factors of injuries caused by non-motor vehicle crashes in Hefei,Anhui Province. Methods From June 2009 to June 2011,the wounded from nonmotor vehicle crashes in Hefei were admitted to our hospital.The data of the wounded were collected to perform hypothesis test to screen out the related risk factors,which were then analyzed with multiple-factor non-conditional Logistic regression analysis. Results A total of 205 cases who were wounded in the non-motor vehicle crashes were admitted to our hospital from June 2009 to June 2011.Among all the cases,146 cases were wounded in electric bicycle crashes and 59 cases in bicycle crashes.There were 147cases (71.7%) of mild to moderate injuries ( ISS ≤ 15 ),and 58 cases (28.3%) of severe injuries (ISS > 15 ) including six deaths (2.9%).Single factor of different categories of the hypothesis test suggested that age,category,driving behavior,crash model,impact type,vehicle type were all related with the severity of injuries caused by non-motor vehicle crashes in Hefei.The multiple-factor non-conditional Logistic regression analysis showed four risk factors for the injury severity in non-motor vehicle crashes in Hefei,ie,vehicle type,crash model,violations of rules and regulations as well as age,according to the degree of correlation. Conclusion With the study of non-motor vehicle crashes in Hefei,primary identification of the risk factors for the traffic injuries is obtained,which provides scientific basis for the decrease of casualty and establishment of intervention measures.%目的 研究合肥市非机动车辆交通事故伤情的相关危险因素. 方法 对2009年6月-2011年6月收治的合肥市非机动车交通事故的伤员资料归纳整理,行假设检验筛选相关危险因素,并进行多因素非条件Logistic回归分析. 结果 (1)2009年6月- 2011年6月共收治涉及非机动车交通伤患者205例:电动自行车146例,自行车59例.轻中度损伤( ISS

  5. The Impact of Built Environment on Pedestrian Crashes and the Identification of Crash Clusters on an Urban University Campus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strasser, Sheryl

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Motor vehicle-pedestrian crash is a significant public health concern. The urban campus of Georgia State University poses unique challenges due to a large number of students and university employees. The objectives of this study are twofold: (1 to examine the correlation between specific features of the built environment on and around the University campus and pedestrian crashes; and (2 to identify crash clusters in the study area using network-based geospatial techniques.Methods: We obtained pedestrian crash data (n=119 from 2003 to 2007 from Georgia Department of Transportation and evaluated environmental features pertaining to the road infrastructure, pedestrian infrastructure and streetscape for each road segment and intersection. Prevalence rate of each feature with pedestrian crashes present was calculated. We used network-based Kernel Density Estimation to identify the high density road segments and intersections, then used network-based K-function to examine the clustering of pedestrian crashes.Results: Over 50% of the crosswalk signs, pedestrian signals, public transit, and location branding signs (more than three at intersections involved pedestrian crashes. More than half of wider streets (greater than 29 feet, two-way streets, and streets in good condition had pedestrian crashes present. Crashes occurred more frequently in road segments with strong street compactness and mixed land use present and were significantly (p<0.05 clustered in these high-density zones.Conclusions: Findings can be used to understand the correlation between built environment and pedestrian safety, to prioritize the high-density zones for intervention efforts, and to formulate research hypotheses for investigating pedestrian crashes. [West J Emerg Med. 2010; 11(3: 295-302.

  6. Reading as Wedding Crashing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newkirk, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Grappling with difficult texts can make readers feel as though they're crashing a party that wasn't meant for them. They don't know the occasion. They don't know the guests. They have a hard time fitting in. In this article, Thomas Newkirk suggests several reasons why students find texts difficult to understand. Students may be…

  7. Advances in Crash Response

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2009-06-29

    In this podcast, Dr. Richard C. Hunt, Director of CDC's Division of Injury Response, provides an overview on the benefits of using an Advanced Automatic Collision Notification system, or AACN, to help with emergency triage of people injured in vehicle crashes.  Created: 6/29/2009 by National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (NCIPC), Division of Injury Response (DIR).   Date Released: 6/29/2009.

  8. Post-crash fuel dispersal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tieszen, S.R.

    1997-03-01

    This paper is a brief overview of work over the last several decades in understanding what occurs to jet fuel stored in aircraft fuel tanks on impact with the ground. Fuel dispersal is discussed in terms of the overall crash dynamics process and impact regimes are identified. In a generic sense, the types of flow regimes which can occur are identified and general descriptions of the processes are given. Examples of engineering level tools, both computational and experimental, which have applicability to analyzing the complex environments are presented. Finally, risk based decision is discussed as a quick means of identifying requirements for development of preventative or mitigation strategies, such as further work on the development of an anti-misting agent.

  9. New, Occasional, and Frequent Use of Zolpidem or Zopiclone (Alone and in Combination) and the Risk of Injurious Road Traffic Crashes in Older Adult Drivers: A Population-Based Case-Control and Case-Crossover Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevriana, Alicia; Möller, Jette; Laflamme, Lucie; Monárrez-Espino, Joel

    2017-08-01

    Previous studies on the effect of zolpidem or zopiclone use on the risk of road traffic crashes (RTCs) have shown mixed results. Our objective was to determine the association between zolpidem or zopiclone use (as separate drugs or combined) and the occurrence of injurious RTCs among older adult drivers. This was a population-based matched case-control and case-crossover study based on secondary data linked together from Swedish national registers. Cases were drivers aged 50-80 years involved in a vehicle crash resulting in injuries between January 2006 and December 2009 for the case-control study (n = 27,096) and from February 2006 to December 2009 for the case-crossover study (n = 26,586). For the first design, four controls were matched to each case by sex, age, and residential area, and exposure was categorized into new, occasional, and frequent use of zolpidem only, zopiclone only, and combined zolpidem and zopiclone. For the case-crossover study, newly dispensed zolpidem or zopiclone users were assessed during the 28 days prior to the crash and compared with an equally long control period using a 12-week washout period. Matched adjusted odds ratios (OR) were computed using conditional logistic regression. Increased ORs for all users were observed. In the case-control study, the highest odds were seen among newly initiated zolpidem-only users involved in single-vehicle crashes (adjusted OR 2.27; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21-4.24), followed by frequent combined zolpidem and zopiclone users [adjusted OR 2.20; CI 1.21-4.00]. In the case-crossover, newly initiated treatment with zolpidem or zopiclone showed an increased risk that was highest in the 2 weeks after the start of the treatment (OR 2.66; 95% CI 1.04-6.81). These results provide more compelling evidence for the role of zolpidem or zopiclone in the occurrence of RTCs among older adults, not only in frequent users, but also at the beginning of treatment.

  10. AP physics B crash course

    CERN Document Server

    Howell, Rebecca

    2012-01-01

    AP Physics B Crash Course - Get a Higher Advanced Placement Score in Less Time Crash Course is perfect for the time-crunched student, the last-minute studier, or anyone who wants a refresher on the subject. Our AP Physics B Crash Course gives you: Targeted, Focused Review - Study Only What You Need to Know The Crash Course is based on an in-depth analysis of the AP Physics B course description outline and actual AP test questions. It covers only the information tested on the exam, so you can make the most of your valuable study time. Our easy-to-read format covers: mechanics, kinetic theory, t

  11. CDC Vital Signs: Motor Vehicle Crash Deaths

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... government is Tracking the nation’s progress in reducing crash injuries and deaths. www.cdc.gov/psr/national-summary/ ... Motor Vehicle Crash Deaths Vital Signs: Motor Vehicle Crash Injuries Vital Signs: Child Passenger Safety CDC: Child Passenger ...

  12. DEBT MATURITY STRUCTURE AND STOCK PRICE CRASH RISK---Empirical Evidence of the China s A-share Markets%公司债务期限结构与股价崩盘风险*--基于中国A股上市公司的实证证据

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李栋栋

    2016-01-01

    Based on the liquidity risk and corporate governance function of short-term debt,this paper investigates the relationship between corporate debt maturity structure and stock price crash risk with the fixed effect model,using listed companies�data of China�s A-share markets from 2004 to 2014.It finds that the higher the proportion of short-term debt,the higher the stock price crash risk,which suggests that the short-term debt does not take an active part in monitoring directors�bad news hording behavior.Further research finds that the positive relationship between short-term debt and stock price crash risk is stronger among SOEs and high level information asymmetry corporations.%基于短期借款的流动性风险和公司治理作用双重特性,本文以中国 A股上市公司2004—2014年的数据为样本,利用固定效应模型,实证检验了公司债务期限结构与股价崩盘风险间的关系。研究发现,在控制其他可能影响股价崩盘风险因素和潜在的内生性问题后,短期借款占比越高,公司股价崩盘风险越高。这说明短期借款并没有发挥积极的治理作用,从而抑制借款偿还流动性风险而导致的管理层负面信息隐藏行为。进一步研究发现,短期借款占比与股价崩盘风险之间的正相关关系在国有企业和信息不对称程度高的公司更加显著。

  13. Pilot age and geographic region of commuter and air taxi crashes: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebok, George W; Qiang, Yandong; Baker, Susan P; Li, Guohua

    2011-02-01

    Previous studies of major airline and general aviation crashes have identified a host of risk factors. We examined risk factors related to crashes involving commuter air carrier and air taxi flights. A matched case-control design was applied to assess the association of pilot age, total flight time, and geographic region with commuter air carrier and air taxi crashes (14 CFR Part 135) from 1983-2002 in the United States. A total of 2033 commuter air carrier or air taxi crashes from the National Transportation Safety Board aviation crash database were identified as eligible cases. Controls were randomly selected incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) aviation incident database coded under Part 135 operation. Relative to controls, commuter air carrier and air taxi crashes were less likely to occur in pilots under 30 yr of age (adjusted odds ratio 0.68, 95% confidence interval 0.54-0.88) after adjusting for geographic region and total flight time. With adjustment for pilot age and total flight time, the commuter air carrier and air taxi crashes with pilot error were nearly 13 times as likely to be in Alaska as their matched controls (adjusted odds ratio 12.84, 95% confidence interval 5.24-31.45). These results suggest that pilot age may be associated with risk of crash involvement in Part 135 operations. The excess crash risk in Alaska with or without pilot error underscores the importance of environmental hazards in flight safety.

  14. Heavy Vehicle Crash Characteristics in Oman; 2009–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Islam Al-Bulushi

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, Oman has seen a shift in the burden of diseases towards road accidents. The main objective of this paper, therefore, is to describe key characteristics of heavy vehicle crashes in Oman and identify the key driving behaviours that influence fatality risks. Crash data from January 2009 to December 2011 were examined and it was found that, of the 22,543 traffic accidents that occurred within this timeframe, 3,114 involved heavy vehicles. While the majority of these crashes were attributed to driver behaviours, a small proportion was attributed to other factors. The results of the study indicate that there is a need for a more thorough crash investigation process in Oman. Future research should explore the reporting processes used by the Royal Oman Police, cultural influences on heavy vehicle operations in Oman and improvements to the current licensing system.

  15. Why Do Markets Crash? Bitcoin Data Offers Unprecedented Insights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donier, Jonathan; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

    2015-01-01

    Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical studies suggest that large price jumps cannot be explained by news and are the result of endogenous feedback loops. Although plausible, a clear-cut empirical evidence for such a scenario is still lacking. Here we show how crashes are conditioned by the market liquidity, for which we propose a new measure inspired by recent theories of market impact and based on readily available, public information. Our results open the possibility of a dynamical evaluation of liquidity risk and early warning signs of market instabilities, and could lead to a quantitative description of the mechanisms leading to market crashes.

  16. Why Do Markets Crash? Bitcoin Data Offers Unprecedented Insights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donier, Jonathan; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

    2015-01-01

    Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical studies suggest that large price jumps cannot be explained by news and are the result of endogenous feedback loops. Although plausible, a clear-cut empirical evidence for such a scenario is still lacking. Here we show how crashes are conditioned by the market liquidity, for which we propose a new measure inspired by recent theories of market impact and based on readily available, public information. Our results open the possibility of a dynamical evaluation of liquidity risk and early warning signs of market instabilities, and could lead to a quantitative description of the mechanisms leading to market crashes. PMID:26448333

  17. Why Do Markets Crash? Bitcoin Data Offers Unprecedented Insights.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Donier

    Full Text Available Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical studies suggest that large price jumps cannot be explained by news and are the result of endogenous feedback loops. Although plausible, a clear-cut empirical evidence for such a scenario is still lacking. Here we show how crashes are conditioned by the market liquidity, for which we propose a new measure inspired by recent theories of market impact and based on readily available, public information. Our results open the possibility of a dynamical evaluation of liquidity risk and early warning signs of market instabilities, and could lead to a quantitative description of the mechanisms leading to market crashes.

  18. Driving behaviors and accident risk under lifetime license revocation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hsin-Li; Woo, T Hugh; Tseng, Chien-Ming; Tseng, I-Yen

    2011-07-01

    This study explored the driving behaviors and crash risk of 768 drivers who were under administrative lifetime driver's license revocation (ALLR). It was found that most of the ALLR offenders (83.2%) were still driving and only a few (16.8%) of them gave up driving completely. Of the offenders still driving, 67.6% experienced encountering a police roadside check, but were not detained or ticketed by the police. Within this group, 50.6% continued driving while encountering a police check, 18.0% of them made an immediate U-turn and 9.5% of them parked and exited their car. As to crash risk, 15.2% of the ALLR offenders had at least one crash experience after the ALLR had been imposed. The results of the logistic regression models showed that the offenders' crash risk while under the ALLR was significantly correlated with their personal characteristics (personal income), penalty status (incarceration, civil compensation and the time elapsed since license revocation), annual distance driven, and needs for driving (working, commuting and driving kids). Low-income offenders were more inclined to have a crash while driving under the ALLR. Offenders penalized by being incarcerated or by paying a high civil compensation drove more carefully and were less of a crash risk under the ALLR. The results also showed there were no differences in crash risk under the ALLR between hit-and-run offences and drunk driving offences or for offenders with a professional license or an ordinary license. Generally, ALLR offenders drove somewhat more carefully and were less of a crash risk (4.3 crashes per million km driven) than legal licensed drivers (23.1 crashes per million km driven). Moreover, they seemed to drive more carefully than drivers who were under short-term license suspension/revocation which previous studies have found.

  19. Hotspot Identification for Shanghai Expressways Using the Quantitative Risk Assessment Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Can; Li, Tienan; Sun, Jian; Chen, Feng

    2016-01-01

    Hotspot identification (HSID) is the first and key step of the expressway safety management process. This study presents a new HSID method using the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) technique. Crashes that are likely to happen for a specific site are treated as the risk. The aggregation of the crash occurrence probability for all exposure vehicles is estimated based on the empirical Bayesian method. As for the consequences of crashes, crashes may not only cause direct losses (e.g., occupant injuries and property damages) but also result in indirect losses. The indirect losses are expressed by the extra delays calculated using the deterministic queuing diagram method. The direct losses and indirect losses are uniformly monetized to be considered as the consequences of this risk. The potential costs of crashes, as a criterion to rank high-risk sites, can be explicitly expressed as the sum of the crash probability for all passing vehicles and the corresponding consequences of crashes. A case study on the urban expressways of Shanghai is presented. The results show that the new QRA method for HSID enables the identification of a set of high-risk sites that truly reveal the potential crash costs to society.

  20. On Crises, Crashes and Comovements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.J.W.G. Kole (Erik)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractCrises and crashes in financial markets are investors’ worst fear. The combination of large losses, a persistent increase of price fluctuations, and a strengthening of comovements in prices causes investors great harm. While the severe consequences of crises and crashes are intuitively

  1. On Crises, Crashes and Comovements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.J.W.G. Kole (Erik)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractCrises and crashes in financial markets are investors’ worst fear. The combination of large losses, a persistent increase of price fluctuations, and a strengthening of comovements in prices causes investors great harm. While the severe consequences of crises and crashes are intuitively c

  2. Run-off-road crashes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2014-01-01

    In the Netherlands, one-third of all fatalities and one-sixth of all seriously injured are the consequence of run-off-road crashes. The outcome of run-off-road crashes is relatively severe, one fatality in five seriously injured, which is twice the average in the Netherlands. Serious run-off-road cr

  3. An Overview. High Risk Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    General Accounting Office, Washington, DC.

    This report provides an overview of efforts undertaken by the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) in 1990 to review and report on federal program areas its work identified as high risk because of vulnerabilities to waste, fraud, abuse, and mismanagement. It reviews the current status of efforts to address these concerns. The six categories of…

  4. Clinical high risk for psychosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Steen, Y; Gimpel-Drees, J; Lataster, T

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess associations between momentary stress and both affective and psychotic symptoms in everyday life of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR), compared to chronic psychotic patients and healthy controls, in search for evidence of early stress sensitiza...

  5. Analysis of factors associated with injury severity in crashes involving young New Zealand drivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weiss, Harold B.; Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    Young people are a risk to themselves and other road users, as motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of their death. A thorough understanding of the most important factors associated with injury severity in crashes involving young drivers is important for designing well-targeted restrictive...... measures within youth-oriented road safety programs. The current study estimates discrete choice models of injury severity of crashes involving young drivers conditional on these crashes having occurred. The analysis examined a comprehensive set of single-vehicle and two-vehicle crashes involving at least...... fit than a binary and a generalized ordered logit. Results show that the young drivers’ behavior, the presence of passengers and the involvement of vulnerable road users were the most relevant factors associated with higher injury severity in both single-vehicle and two-vehicle crashes. Seatbelt non...

  6. Prevalence and factors associated with road traffic crash among taxi drivers in Hanoi, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La, Quang Ngoc; Lee, Andy H; Meuleners, Lynn B; Van Duong, Dat

    2013-01-01

    Injury due to road traffic crash is a major cause of ill health and premature deaths in developing countries. Taxis provide a main mode of public transport in Vietnam but there has been little research on the risk of crash for taxi drivers. This retrospective study collected information on taxi crashes for the period 2006-2009 by interviewing drivers from five taxi companies in Hanoi, Vietnam, using a structured questionnaire. Of the total 1214 participants recruited, 276 drivers reported at least one crash, giving an overall crash prevalence of 22.7%. Among the crashed group, 50 drivers (18.1%) were involved in two to four crashes. Logistic regression analysis further identified age of driver, type of driving licence, employment status, perceived sufficiency of income, seat-belt usage, and traffic infringement history to be significantly associated with the crash risk. Further prospective and qualitative studies are recommended to provide detailed crash characteristics as well as behaviour and perception of taxi drivers, so that an effective intervention can be developed to improve road safety and to prevent injury of these commercial drivers. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Cuestionarios sobre factores de riesgo de la exposición y la accidentalidad por tráfico en conductores: Una revisión A review of questionnaires exploring driver´s exposure and risk factors in road crashes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Jiménez Mejías

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Dada la diversidad de cuestionarios empleados en el estudio de la epidemiología analítica de las lesiones por tráfico, realizamos una revisión de los estudios publicados al respecto entre 1989 a 2011, con objeto de identificar sus fortalezas y debilidades. Dicha revisión puso de relieve que la mayor parte de los cuestionarios se centran en el factor humano sobre el riesgo de accidente, pero son muy pocos los que incluyen la intensidad de exposición y la asociación de ésta con otros factores de riesgo de la accidentalidad. Muchos cuestionarios poseen un elevado número de ítems y complejas escalas de valoración. Además, en España son escasos los cuestionarios validados sobre la exposición y la accidentalidad por tráfico. Por todo ello, es necesario trabajar en el diseño y la validación de cuestionarios que recojan de forma sencilla información integral sobre la epidemiología de las lesiones por tráfico de cara a su mayor conocimiento y prevención.Given the diversity of questionnaires currently being used in the study of the analytic epidemiology of traffic injuries, we made a review of studies on this question published between 1989 and 2011 in order to identify their advantages and disadvantages. We were able to observe that most of the questionnaires were focused on the human factor regarding the risk of road crashes, but very few of them included intensity of exposure and its association with other risk factors in road crashes. Many questionnaires have a high number of items and complex rating scales. Furthermore, in Spain there are few validated questionnaires which contain complete information about exposure and road crashes. In Spain we should work on the design and validation of questionnaires containing questions aimed at obtaining complete and easy information about the epidemiology of traffic injuries. In this way we would be able to increase our awareness of traffic injuries and how to prevent them.

  8. Impact and injury patterns in between-rails frontal crashes of vehicles with good ratings for frontal crash protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Richard M; Cui, Chongzhen; Digges, Kennerly H; Cao, Libo; Kan, Cing-Dao Steve

    2012-01-01

    This research investigated (1) what are the key attributes of the between-rail, frontal crash, (2) what are the types of object contacted, and (3) what is the type of resulting trauma. The method was to study with both weighted and in-depth case reviews of NASS-CDS crash data with direct damage between the longitudinal rails in frontal crashes. Individual case selection was limited to belted occupants in between-rail, frontal impacts of good-rated, late-model vehicles equipped with air bags.This paper evaluates the risk of trauma for drivers in cars and LTVs in between-rail, frontal crashes, and suggests the between-rail impact is more dangerous to car drivers. Using weighted data-representing 227,305 tow-away crashes-the resulting trauma to various body regions was analyzed to suggest greatest injury is to the chest, pelvis/thigh/knee/leg, and foot/ankle. This study analyzed the type of object that caused the direct damage between the rails, including small tree or post, large tree or pole, and another vehicle; and found that the struck object was most often another vehicle or a large tree/pole. Both the extent of damage and the occupant compartment intrusion were explored, and suggest that 64% of the serious injuries are associated with increasing intrusion. Individual NASS cases were reviewed to gain a deeper understanding of the mechanical particulars in the between-rail crash.

  9. Driver injury severity outcome analysis in rural interstate highway crashes: a two-level Bayesian logistic regression interpretation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cong; Zhang, Guohui; Liu, Xiaoyue Cathy; Ci, Yusheng; Huang, Helai; Ma, Jianming; Chen, Yanyan; Guan, Hongzhi

    2016-12-01

    There is a high potential of severe injury outcomes in traffic crashes on rural interstate highways due to the significant amount of high speed traffic on these corridors. Hierarchical Bayesian models are capable of incorporating between-crash variance and within-crash correlations into traffic crash data analysis and are increasingly utilized in traffic crash severity analysis. This paper applies a hierarchical Bayesian logistic model to examine the significant factors at crash and vehicle/driver levels and their heterogeneous impacts on driver injury severity in rural interstate highway crashes. Analysis results indicate that the majority of the total variance is induced by the between-crash variance, showing the appropriateness of the utilized hierarchical modeling approach. Three crash-level variables and six vehicle/driver-level variables are found significant in predicting driver injury severities: road curve, maximum vehicle damage in a crash, number of vehicles in a crash, wet road surface, vehicle type, driver age, driver gender, driver seatbelt use and driver alcohol or drug involvement. Among these variables, road curve, functional and disabled vehicle damage in crash, single-vehicle crashes, female drivers, senior drivers, motorcycles and driver alcohol or drug involvement tend to increase the odds of drivers being incapably injured or killed in rural interstate crashes, while wet road surface, male drivers and driver seatbelt use are more likely to decrease the probability of severe driver injuries. The developed methodology and estimation results provide insightful understanding of the internal mechanism of rural interstate crashes and beneficial references for developing effective countermeasures for rural interstate crash prevention.

  10. Intelligent geocoding system to locate traffic crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Xiao; Parker, Steven; Liu, Yi; Graettinger, Andrew J; Forde, Susie

    2013-01-01

    State agencies continue to face many challenges associated with new federal crash safety and highway performance monitoring requirements that use data from multiple and disparate systems across different platforms and locations. On a national level, the federal government has a long-term vision for State Departments of Transportation (DOTs) to report state route and off-state route crash data in a single network. In general, crashes occurring on state-owned or state maintained highways are a priority at the Federal and State level; therefore, state-route crashes are being geocoded by state DOTs. On the other hand, crashes occurring on off-state highway system do not always get geocoded due to limited resources and techniques. Creating and maintaining a statewide crash geographic information systems (GIS) map with state route and non-state route crashes is a complicated and expensive task. This study introduces an automatic crash mapping process, Crash-Mapping Automation Tool (C-MAT), where an algorithm translates location information from a police report crash record to a geospatial map and creates a pinpoint map for all crashes. The algorithm has approximate 83 percent mapping rate. An important application of this work is the ability to associate the mapped crash records to underlying business data, such as roadway inventory and traffic volumes. The integrated crash map is the foundation for effective and efficient crash analyzes to prevent highway crashes.

  11. Crash course in readers' advisory

    CERN Document Server

    Orr, Cynthia

    2014-01-01

    One of the key services librarians provide is helping readers find books they'll enjoy. This ""crash course"" will furnish you with the basic, practical information you need to excel at readers' advisory (RA) for adults and teens.

  12. Crash helmets for moped riders.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noordzij, P.C. & Paar, H.G.

    1975-01-01

    Research has been done into the requirements for crash helmets for moped drivers not only in relation to their comfort but also to their protection. It is stated that any helmet is better than no helmet.

  13. Analysing the Severity and Frequency of Traffic Crashes in Riyadh City Using Statistical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saleh Altwaijri

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Traffic crashes in Riyadh city cause losses in the form of deaths, injuries and property damages, in addition to the pain and social tragedy affecting families of the victims. In 2005, there were a total of 47,341 injury traffic crashes occurred in Riyadh city (19% of the total KSA crashes and 9% of those crashes were severe. Road safety in Riyadh city may have been adversely affected by: high car ownership, migration of people to Riyadh city, high daily trips reached about 6 million, high rate of income, low-cost of petrol, drivers from different nationalities, young drivers and tremendous growth in population which creates a high level of mobility and transport activities in the city. The primary objective of this paper is therefore to explore factors affecting the severity and frequency of road crashes in Riyadh city using appropriate statistical models aiming to establish effective safety policies ready to be implemented to reduce the severity and frequency of road crashes in Riyadh city. Crash data for Riyadh city were collected from the Higher Commission for the Development of Riyadh (HCDR for a period of five years from 1425H to 1429H (roughly corresponding to 2004-2008. Crash data were classified into three categories: fatal, serious-injury and slight-injury. Two nominal response models have been developed: a standard multinomial logit model (MNL and a mixed logit model to injury-related crash data. Due to a severe underreporting problem on the slight injury crashes binary and mixed binary logistic regression models were also estimated for two categories of severity: fatal and serious crashes. For frequency, two count models such as Negative Binomial (NB models were employed and the unit of analysis was 168 HAIs (wards in Riyadh city. Ward-level crash data are disaggregated by severity of the crash (such as fatal and serious injury crashes. The results from both multinomial and binary response models are found to be fairly consistent but

  14. Model for Incomplete Reconnection in Sawtooth Crashes

    CERN Document Server

    Beidler, Matthew T

    2011-01-01

    A model for incomplete reconnection in sawtooth crashes is presented. The reconnection inflow during the crash phase of sawteeth self-consistently convects the high pressure core toward the reconnection site, raising the pressure gradient there. Reconnection shuts off if the diamagnetic drift speed at the reconnection site exceeds a threshold, which may explain incomplete reconnection. The relaxation of magnetic shear after reconnection stops may explain the destabilization of ideal interchange instabilities reported previously. Proof-of-principle two-fluid simulations confirm this basic picture. Predictions of the model compare favorably to data from the Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak. Applications to transport modeling of sawteeth are discussed. The results should apply across tokamaks, including ITER.

  15. Model for incomplete reconnection in sawtooth crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beidler, M T; Cassak, P A

    2011-12-16

    A model for incomplete reconnection in sawtooth crashes is presented. The reconnection inflow during the crash phase of sawteeth self-consistently convects the high pressure core toward the reconnection site, raising the pressure gradient there. Reconnection shuts off if the diamagnetic drift speed at the reconnection site exceeds a threshold, which may explain incomplete reconnection. The relaxation of magnetic shear after reconnection stops may explain the destabilization of ideal interchange instabilities reported previously. Proof-of-principle two-fluid simulations confirm this basic picture. Predictions of the model compare favorably to data from the Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak. Applications to transport modeling of sawteeth are discussed. The results should apply across tokamaks, including ITER.

  16. Role of Motorcycle Running Lights in Reducing Motorcycle Crashes during Daytime; A Review of the Current Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Rasoul Davoodi

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In comparison to other transportation modes, riding motorcycle is prone to accidents. Motorcyclists are more exposed to physical injury than the car drivers. Many multi-vehicle motorcycles crashes occur, there is right-of- way violation takes place in which another vehicle turns in fronts of a motorcycle, or a sudden cross of path of an on-coming motorcycle. One main factor which leads to high rate of motorcycle crashes is lack of conspicuity of motorcycles by other road users especially during day time traffic. This paper highlights previous studies on the implementation of motorcycle DRLs, focusing on the efficacy of the DRLs to improve motorcycle conspicuity. This paper reviews the impacts of DRL by motorcyclists on multi-vehicle motorcycle crash. The three categories of effects of motorcycle DRLs were reviewed. All literature, supporting that operating headlights during daytime appears to be an influential and effective approach to reduce rate of collision by improving motorcycle’s conspicuity in traffic. The motorcycle DRLs managed to reduce about 4 to 20% of motorcycle crash risk. This paper also recommends that motorcycle DRLs must be used globally, especially in countries with high motorcycle accidents to improve the safety of the riders as well as their pillion riders.

  17. Road traffic crashes among farm vehicle drivers in southern China: A cross-sectional survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xujun; Yang, Yaming; Chen, Yu; Yao, Hongyan; Wu, Ming; Cui, Mengjing; Li, Yang; Hu, Jie; Zhang, Cong; Li, Zhen; Stallones, Lorann; Xiang, Huiyun

    2017-01-02

    The objective of this study was to identify the prevalence and potential risk factors of farm vehicle-related road traffic crashes among farm vehicle drivers in southern China. A cross-sectional study was used to interview 1,422 farm vehicle drivers in southern China. Farm vehicle-related road traffic crashes that occurred from December 2013 to November 2014 were investigated. Data on farm vehicle-related road traffic crashes and related factors were collected by face-to-face interviews. The prevalence of farm vehicle-related road traffic crashes among the investigated drivers was 7.2%. Farm vehicle-related road traffic crashes were significantly associated with self-reported vision problem (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 6.48, 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.86-10.87), self-reported sleep disorders (AOR = 10.03, 95% CI, 6.28-15.99), self-reported stress (AOR = 20.47, 95% CI, 9.96-42.08), reported history of crashes (AOR = 5.40, 95% CI, 3.47-8.42), reported history of drunk driving (AOR = 5.07, 95% CI, 2.97-8.65), and reported history of fatigued driving (AOR = 5.72, 95% CI, 3.73-8.78). The number of road traffic crashes was highest in the daytime and during harvest season. In over 96% of farm vehicle-related road traffic crashes, drivers were believed to be responsible for the crash. Major crash-causing factors included improper driving, careless driving, violating of traffic signals or signs, and being in the wrong lane. Findings of this study suggest that farm vehicle-related road traffic crashes have become a burgeoning public health problem in China. Programs need to be developed to prevent farm vehicle-related road traffic crashes in this emerging country.

  18. Ambulance Crash Characteristics in the US Defined by the Popular Press: A Retrospective Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teri L. Sanddal

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Ambulance crashes are a significant risk to prehospital care providers, the patients they are carrying, persons in other vehicles, and pedestrians. No uniform national transportation or medical database captures all ambulance crashes in the United States. A website captures many significant ambulance crashes by collecting reports in the popular media (the website is mentioned in the introduction. This report summaries findings from ambulance crashes for the time period of May 1, 2007 to April 30, 2009. Of the 466 crashes examined, 358 resulted in injuries to prehospital personnel, other vehicle occupants, patients being transported in the ambulance, or pedestrians. A total of 982 persons were injured as a result of ambulance crashes during the time period. Prehospital personnel were the most likely to be injured. Provider safety can and should be improved by ambulance vehicle redesign and the development of improved occupant safety restraints. Seventy-nine (79 crashes resulted in fatalities to some member of the same groups listed above. A total of 99 persons were killed in ambulance crashes during the time period. Persons in other vehicles involved in collisions with ambulances were the most likely to die as a result of crashes. In the urban environment, intersections are a particularly dangerous place for ambulances.

  19. Statistical modeling of total crash frequency at highway intersections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arash M. Roshandeh

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Intersection-related crashes are associated with high proportion of accidents involving drivers, occupants, pedestrians, and cyclists. In general, the purpose of intersection safety analysis is to determine the impact of safety-related variables on pedestrians, cyclists and vehicles, so as to facilitate the design of effective and efficient countermeasure strategies to improve safety at intersections. This study investigates the effects of traffic, environmental, intersection geometric and pavement-related characteristics on total crash frequencies at intersections. A random-parameter Poisson model was used with crash data from 357 signalized intersections in Chicago from 2004 to 2010. The results indicate that out of the identified factors, evening peak period traffic volume, pavement condition, and unlighted intersections have the greatest effects on crash frequencies. Overall, the results seek to suggest that, in order to improve effective highway-related safety countermeasures at intersections, significant attention must be focused on ensuring that pavements are adequately maintained and intersections should be well lighted. It needs to be mentioned that, projects could be implemented at and around the study intersections during the study period (7 years, which could affect the crash frequency over the time. This is an important variable which could be a part of the future studies to investigate the impacts of safety-related works at intersections and their marginal effects on crash frequency at signalized intersections.

  20. A GIS-based Matched Case-control Study of Road Characteristics in Farm Vehicle Crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranapurwala, Shabbar I; Mello, Elizabeth R; Ramirez, Marizen R

    2016-11-01

    Farm vehicle-related crashes (crashes) are hazardous for farm and non-farm vehicle users; however, most studies examine risk factors of injury given a crash, and shed little light on risk factors of crashes. We evaluated the association of road sinuosity and gradient with crashes in nine Midwestern States from 2005 to 2010. We collected crash data from the state departments of transportation, and road segment data from the Environmental Sciences Research Institute. We measured gradient and sinuosity of road segments using ArcGIS. A road segment with a crash was defined as a case (n = 6,848), and that without a crash was defined as a control. Controls were matched to cases by ZIP code, road type, and length in 1:1 (controls = 6,808) matching scheme. In addition, a 1:many control matched scheme was employed such that all road segments adjacent to the case would serve as controls (n = 24,390). We computed odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using multivariable conditional logistic regression. The adjusted OR of a crash on a road segment with 6%-10% gradient was 0.60 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.75) as compared with a leveled (<1% gradient) road segment. Compared with a straight (<1% sinuosity) road segment, the adjusted OR of a crash on a road segment with 6%-10% sinuosity was 0.38 (95% CI: 0.29, 0.52). Roads with increased gradient and sinuosity had fewer farm crashes. These associations may be due to cautious driving behaviors on curvy or steep roads and road side signage alerting drivers of impending curve or grade.

  1. Toward an Effective Long-Term Strategy for Preventing Motor Vehicle Crashes and Injuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony R. Mawson

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Casualties due to motor vehicle crashes (MVCs include some 40,000 deaths each year in the United States and one million deaths worldwide. One strategy that has been recommended for improving automobile safety is to lower speed limits and enforce them with speed cameras. However, motor vehicles can be hazardous even at low speeds whereas properly protected human beings can survive high-speed crashes without injury. Emphasis on changing driver behavior as the focus for road safety improvements has been largely unsuccessful; moreover, drivers today are increasingly distracted by secondary tasks such as cell phone use and texting. Indeed, the true limiting factor in vehicular safety is the capacity of human beings to sense and process information and to make rapid decisions. Given that dramatic reductions in injuries and deaths from MVCs have occurred over the past century due to improvements in safety technology, despite increases in the number of vehicles on the road and miles driven per vehicle, we propose that an effective long-term strategy for reducing MVC-related injury would be continued technological innovation in vehicle design, aimed at progressively removing the driver from routine operational decision-making. Once this is achieved, high rates of speed could be achieved on open highways, with minimal risk of crashes and injury to occupants and pedestrians.

  2. "Crashing the gates" - selection criteria for television news reporting of traffic crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Ceunynck, Tim; De Smedt, Julie; Daniels, Stijn; Wouters, Ruud; Baets, Michèle

    2015-07-01

    This study investigates which crash characteristics influence the probability that the crash is reported in the television news. To this purpose, all news items from the period 2006-2012 about traffic crashes from the prime time news of two Belgian television channels are linked to the official injury crash database. Logistic regression models are built for the database of all injury crashes and for the subset of fatal crashes to identify crash characteristics that correlate with a lower or higher probability of being reported in the news. A number of significant biases in terms of crash severity, time, place, types of involved road users and victims' personal characteristics are found in the media reporting of crashes. More severe crashes are reported in the media more easily than less severe crashes. Significant fluctuations in media reporting probability through time are found in terms of the year and month in which the crash took place. Crashes during week days are generally less reported in the news. The geographical area (province) in which the crash takes place also has a significant impact on the probability of being reported in the news. Crashes on motorways are significantly more represented in the news. Regarding the age of the involved victims, a clear trend of higher media reporting rates of crashes involving young victims or young fatalities is observed. Crashes involving female fatalities are also more frequently reported in the news. Furthermore, crashes involving a bus have a significantly higher probability of being reported in the news, while crashes involving a motorcycle have a significantly lower probability. Some models also indicate a lower reporting rate of crashes involving a moped, and a higher reporting rate of crashes involving heavy goods vehicles. These biases in media reporting can create skewed perceptions in the general public about the prevalence of traffic crashes and eventually may influence people's behaviour.

  3. All-terrain vehicle crashes and associated injuries in north Queensland: findings from the Rural and Remote Road Safety Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Teresa; Hanks, Heather; Steinhardt, Dale

    2009-10-01

    To define characteristics of all-terrain vehicle (ATV) crashes occurring in north Queensland from March 2004 till June 2007 with the exploration of associated risk factors. Descriptive analysis of ATV crash data collected by the Rural and Remote Road Safety Study. Rural and remote north Queensland. Forty-two ATV drivers and passengers aged 16 years or over hospitalised at Atherton, Cairns, Mount Isa or Townsville for at least 24 hours as a result of a vehicle crash. Demographics of participants, reason for travel, nature of crash, injuries sustained and risk factors associated with ATV crash. The majority of casualties were men aged 16-64. Forty-one per cent of accidents occurred while performing agricultural tasks. Furthermore, 39% of casualties had less than one year's experience riding ATVs. Over half the casualties were not wearing a helmet at the time of the crash. Common injuries were head and neck and upper limb injuries. Rollovers tended to occur while performing agricultural tasks and most commonly resulted in multiple injuries. Considerable trauma results from ATV crashes in rural and remote north Queensland. These crashes are not included in most general vehicle crash data sets, as they are usually limited to events occurring on public roads. Minimal legislation and regulation currently applies to ATV use in agricultural, recreational and commercial settings. Legislation on safer design of ATVs and mandatory courses for riders is an essential part of addressing the burden of ATV crashes on rural and remote communities.

  4. Human fatigue and the crash of the airship Italia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendrick, Gregg A; Beckett, Scott A; Klerman, Elizabeth B

    2016-01-01

    The airship Italia, commanded by General Umberto Nobile, crashed during its return flight from the North Pole in 1928. The cause of the accident was never satisfactorily explained. We present evidence that the crash may have been fatigue-related. Nobile's memoirs indicate that at the time of the crash he had been awake for at least 72 h. Sleep deprivation impairs multiple aspects of cognitive functioning necessary for exploration missions. Just prior to the crash, Nobile made three command errors, all of which are of types associated with inadequate sleep. First, he ordered a release of lift gas when he should have restarted engines (an example of incorrect data synthesis, with deterioration of divergent thinking); second, he inappropriately ordered the ship above the cloud layer (a deficiency in the assessment of relative risks); and third, he remained above the cloud layer for a prolonged period of time (examples of attention to secondary problems, and calculation problems). We argue that as a result of these three errors, which would not be expected from such an experienced commander, there was no longer enough static lift to maintain level flight when the ship went below the cloud layer. Applying Circadian Performance Simulation Software to the sleep-wake patterns described by Nobile in his memoirs, we found that the predicted performance for someone awake as long as he had been is extremely low. This supports the historical evidence that human fatigue contributed to the crash of the Italia.

  5. Human fatigue and the crash of the airship Italia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregg A. Bendrick

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The airship Italia, commanded by General Umberto Nobile, crashed during its return flight from the North Pole in 1928. The cause of the accident was never satisfactorily explained. We present evidence that the crash may have been fatigue-related. Nobile's memoirs indicate that at the time of the crash he had been awake for at least 72 h. Sleep deprivation impairs multiple aspects of cognitive functioning necessary for exploration missions. Just prior to the crash, Nobile made three command errors, all of which are of types associated with inadequate sleep. First, he ordered a release of lift gas when he should have restarted engines (an example of incorrect data synthesis, with deterioration of divergent thinking; second, he inappropriately ordered the ship above the cloud layer (a deficiency in the assessment of relative risks; and third, he remained above the cloud layer for a prolonged period of time (examples of attention to secondary problems, and calculation problems. We argue that as a result of these three errors, which would not be expected from such an experienced commander, there was no longer enough static lift to maintain level flight when the ship went below the cloud layer. Applying Circadian Performance Simulation Software to the sleep–wake patterns described by Nobile in his memoirs, we found that the predicted performance for someone awake as long as he had been is extremely low. This supports the historical evidence that human fatigue contributed to the crash of the Italia.

  6. Systematic review of military motor vehicle crash-related injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krahl, Pamela L; Jankosky, Christopher J; Thomas, Richard J; Hooper, Tomoko I

    2010-01-01

    Motor vehicle crashes account for nearly one third of U.S. military fatalities annually. The objective of this review is to summarize the published evidence on injuries due specifically to military motor vehicle (MMV) crashes. A search of 18 electronic databases identified English language publications addressing MMV crash-related injuries between 1970 and 2006 that were available to the general public. Documents limited in distribution to military or government personnel were not evaluated. Relevant articles were categorized by study design. The search identified only 13 studies related specifically to MMV crashes. Most were case reports or case series (n=8); only one could be classified as an intervention study. Nine of the studies were based solely on data from service-specific military safety centers. Few studies exist on injuries resulting from crashes of military motor vehicles. Epidemiologic studies that assess injury rates, type, severity, and risk factors are needed, followed by studies to evaluate targeted interventions and prevention strategies. Interventions currently underway should be evaluated for effectiveness, and those proven effective in the civilian community, such as graduated driver licensing, should be considered for implementation and evaluation in military populations. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  7. Option pricing during post-crash relaxation times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dibeh, Ghassan; Harmanani, Haidar M.

    2007-07-01

    This paper presents a model for option pricing in markets that experience financial crashes. The stochastic differential equation (SDE) of stock price dynamics is coupled to a post-crash market index. The resultant SDE is shown to have stock price and time dependent volatility. The partial differential equation (PDE) for call prices is derived using risk-neutral pricing. European call prices are then estimated using Monte Carlo and finite difference methods. Results of the model show that call option prices after the crash are systematically less than those predicted by the Black-Scholes model. This is a result of the effect of non-constant volatility of the model that causes a volatility skew.

  8. Frequency of Injuries in Multiple Impact Crashes

    OpenAIRE

    Digges, K.; Bahouth, G.

    2003-01-01

    NASS 1998–2000 was queried to determine the frequency of serious injuries in multiple impact crashes and the distribution of injuries by crash sequence. The data set included all passenger cars and light trucks in NASS/CDS.

  9. The relation between speed and crashes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2006-01-01

    The exact relation between speed and crashes depends on many factors. However, in a general sense the relation is very clear: if on a road the driven speeds become higher, the crash rate will also increase. The crash rate is also higher for an individual vehicle that drives at higher speed than the

  10. Understanding traffic crash under-reporting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janstrup, Kira Hyldekær; Kaplan, Sigal; Hels, Tove

    2016-01-01

    Objective: This study aligns to the body of research dedicated to estimating the underreporting of road crash injuries and adds the perspective of understanding individual and crash factors contributing to the decision to report a crash to the police, the hospital, or both. Method: This study foc...

  11. Understanding traffic crash under-reporting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janstrup, Kira Hyldekær; Kaplan, Sigal; Hels, Tove;

    2016-01-01

    Objective: This study aligns to the body of research dedicated to estimating the underreporting of road crash injuries and adds the perspective of understanding individual and crash factors contributing to the decision to report a crash to the police, the hospital, or both. Method: This study foc...

  12. Exploring older driver crash trend: New Jersey case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanvi Trieu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Older drivers age 65 and above are known to experience greater risk on the roadway as well as increasing the risk to other roadway users. Within the next 20 years, their population is expected to increase from 41 million in 2011 to 70 million in 2030. To address this foreseeable change, the nation's recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century (MAP-21 act requires state and local governments to examine older drivers and pedestrian risks and implement countermeasures as appropriate. This research was conducted to assist agencies in strategising for future plans, programmes and initiatives to better address the problem presented. This was accomplished by performing a detailed engineering analysis on crash data of older drivers over a 10-year period (2003–2012 from the state of New Jersey to identify crash trends and characteristics. A major finding from this research was the increase in fatal crashes of older drivers as a function of age. Top-ranking collision types with other vehicles and non-vehicles were identified. Crashes as a function of seasonal change, climate and lighting conditions were also examined.

  13. Real-time wavelet detection of crashes in limit cycles of non-stationary fusion plasmas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berkel, M. van, E-mail: m.v.berkel@tue.nl [Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Control Systems Technology Group, PO Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven (Netherlands); FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen, Association EURATOM-FOM, Trilateral Euregio Cluster, PO Box 1207, 3430 BE Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Witvoet, G.; Baar, M.R. de [Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Control Systems Technology Group, PO Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven (Netherlands); FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen, Association EURATOM-FOM, Trilateral Euregio Cluster, PO Box 1207, 3430 BE Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Nuij, P.W.J.M. [Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Control Systems Technology Group, PO Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven (Netherlands); Morsche, H.G. ter [Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, PO Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven (Netherlands); Steinbuch, M. [Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Control Systems Technology Group, PO Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven (Netherlands)

    2011-12-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We propose a new wavelet-based method for accurate and robust detection of limit cycle crashes in fusion plasmas. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method is optimized for real-time applications such that it has small delay. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method is implemented in a real-time algorithm and is tested on experimental data. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Almost all crashes are detected flawlessly including off-waveforms with high SNR. - Abstract: The high performance mode (H-mode) is one of the baseline plasma scenarios for the experimental fusion reactor ITER. This scenario features a periodic crash-like reorganization of the plasma pressure and the magnetic flux in the plasma core and plasma periphery. The core instability is often referred to as the sawtooth instability while the instability at the edge of the plasma is referred to as ELM. In this paper we present an algorithm for optimized (low latency, robust and high fidelity) real-time sensing of the crashes. The algorithm is based on time-scale wavelet theory and edge-detection. It is argued that detection of crashes has considerably less delay than the other methods. The realized accuracy of the detection algorithm is well below the uncertainty of the crash period for most crashes. Multiresolution analysis enables distinction between different sizes of sawtooth crashes due to the different sizes of wavelets (scales), resulting in an algorithm, which is robust and accurate. Although strictly speaking, the crash detection method is demonstrated for sawteeth measured with ECE only, it can be applied to any periodic crash, measured with any temporally resolved data. Note that the possibility of differentiating between crash like events of different nature depends on their individual time-scales and used measurement setup.

  14. Enabling Radiative Transfer on AMR grids in CRASH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hariharan, N.; Graziani, L.; Ciardi, B.; Miniati, F.; Bungartz, H.-J.

    2017-01-01

    We introduce CRASH-AMR, a new version of the cosmological Radiative Transfer (RT) code CRASH, enabled to use refined grids. This new feature allows us to attain higher resolution in our RT simulations and thus to describe more accurately ionisation and temperature patterns in high density regions. We have tested CRASH-AMR by simulating the evolution of an ionised region produced by a single source embedded in gas at constant density, as well as by a more realistic configuration of multiple sources in an inhomogeneous density field. While we find an excellent agreement with the previous version of CRASH when the AMR feature is disabled, showing that no numerical artifact has been introduced in CRASH-AMR, when additional refinement levels are used the code can simulate more accurately the physics of ionised gas in high density regions. This result has been attained at no computational loss, as RT simulations on AMR grids with maximum resolution equivalent to that of a uniform cartesian grid can be run with a gain of up to 60% in computational time.

  15. Crash Frequency Modeling Using Real-Time Environmental and Traffic Data and Unbalanced Panel Data Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

    2016-06-18

    Traffic and environmental conditions (e.g., weather conditions), which frequently change with time, have a significant impact on crash occurrence. Traditional crash frequency models with large temporal scales and aggregated variables are not sufficient to capture the time-varying nature of driving environmental factors, causing significant loss of critical information on crash frequency modeling. This paper aims at developing crash frequency models with refined temporal scales for complex driving environments, with such an effort providing more detailed and accurate crash risk information which can allow for more effective and proactive traffic management and law enforcement intervention. Zero-inflated, negative binomial (ZINB) models with site-specific random effects are developed with unbalanced panel data to analyze hourly crash frequency on highway segments. The real-time driving environment information, including traffic, weather and road surface condition data, sourced primarily from the Road Weather Information System, is incorporated into the models along with site-specific road characteristics. The estimation results of unbalanced panel data ZINB models suggest there are a number of factors influencing crash frequency, including time-varying factors (e.g., visibility and hourly traffic volume) and site-varying factors (e.g., speed limit). The study confirms the unique significance of the real-time weather, road surface condition and traffic data to crash frequency modeling.

  16. Pre-crash performance of collision mitigation and avoidance systems: Results from the assess project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aparicio, A.; Baurès, S.; Bargalló, J.; Rodarius, C.; Vissers, J.; Bartels, O.; Seiniger, P.; Lemmen, P.; Unselt, T.; Ranovona, M.; Okawa, T.; Schaub, S.

    2013-01-01

    Integrated vehicle safety systems that combine elements from primary and secondary safety have a high potential to improve vehicle safety, due to their ability to influence crash conditions and/or to adapt to these crash conditions. So far no standard evaluation procedures have been developed and im

  17. Spatial panel analyses of alcohol outlets and motor vehicle crashes in California: 1999–2008

    OpenAIRE

    Ponicki, William R.; Gruenewald, Paul J.; Remer, Lillian G.

    2013-01-01

    Although past research has linked alcohol outlet density to higher rates of drinking and many related social problems, there is conflicting evidence of density’s association with traffic crashes. An abundance of local alcohol outlets simultaneously encourages drinking and reduces driving distances required to obtain alcohol, leading to an indeterminate expected impact on alcohol-involved crash risk. This study separately investigates the effects of outlet density on (1) the risk of injury cra...

  18. Exploring the effects of roadway characteristics on the frequency and severity of head-on crashes: case studies from Malaysian federal roads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseinpour, Mehdi; Yahaya, Ahmad Shukri; Sadullah, Ahmad Farhan

    2014-01-01

    Head-on crashes are among the most severe collision types and of great concern to road safety authorities. Therefore, it justifies more efforts to reduce both the frequency and severity of this collision type. To this end, it is necessary to first identify factors associating with the crash occurrence. This can be done by developing crash prediction models that relate crash outcomes to a set of contributing factors. This study intends to identify the factors affecting both the frequency and severity of head-on crashes that occurred on 448 segments of five federal roads in Malaysia. Data on road characteristics and crash history were collected on the study segments during a 4-year period between 2007 and 2010. The frequency of head-on crashes were fitted by developing and comparing seven count-data models including Poisson, standard negative binomial (NB), random-effect negative binomial, hurdle Poisson, hurdle negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial models. To model crash severity, a random-effect generalized ordered probit model (REGOPM) was used given a head-on crash had occurred. With respect to the crash frequency, the random-effect negative binomial (RENB) model was found to outperform the other models according to goodness of fit measures. Based on the results of the model, the variables horizontal curvature, terrain type, heavy-vehicle traffic, and access points were found to be positively related to the frequency of head-on crashes, while posted speed limit and shoulder width decreased the crash frequency. With regard to the crash severity, the results of REGOPM showed that horizontal curvature, paved shoulder width, terrain type, and side friction were associated with more severe crashes, whereas land use, access points, and presence of median reduced the probability of severe crashes. Based on the results of this study, some potential countermeasures were proposed to minimize the risk of head-on crashes.

  19. The use of technology to address patterns of risk among teenage drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brovold, Shawn; Ward, Nic; Donath, Max; Simon, Stephen; Shankwitz, Craig; Creaser, Janet

    2007-01-01

    The crash risk of teens is high, with fatal crash rates of teen drivers higher than any other age group. New approaches to reduce teen traffic fatalities are clearly needed. A possible approach to reduce the incidence of teen driver crashes and fatalities is through the use of vehicle-based intelligent driver support systems. To be most effective, the system should address the behaviors associated with an overwhelming number of teen fatal crashes: speed, low seatbelt use, and alcohol impairment. In-vehicle technology also offers an opportunity to address the issue of inexperience through enforcement of certain Graduated Driver's License provisions. To fully understand the capability of such technologies, there should be a concerted effort to further their development, and human factors testing should take place to understand their effects on the driver. If successfully implemented, a Teen Driver Support System (TDSS), such as the one described here, could significantly decrease the number of teens killed in traffic crashes.

  20. Mucormycosis complicating lower limb crash injury in a multiple traumatised patient: an unusual case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stasiak, Mariusz; Samet, Alfred; Lasek, Jerzy; Wujtewicz, Maria; Witkowski, Zbigniew; Komarnicka, Jolanta; Golabek-Dropiewska, Katarzyna; Rybak, Bartosz; Gross, Marta; Marks, Wojciech

    2009-01-01

    Necrotising skin and soft tissues infections are most commonly bacterial in origin. However, saprophytic fungi of the class Zygomycetes, family Mucoraceae, can cause highly aggressive infections (mucormycoses) mainly in immunocompromised patients. Severe trauma is one of the major risk factors for mucormycosis. Fungal traumatic wound infection is an unusual complication associated with crash limb injury. This report describes a case of serious necrotising soft tissue infection caused by Mucor sp following primary fungal environmental wound contamination in a multiply injured patient. Despite undelayed diagnosis and proper treatment (surgical debridement and limb amputation, amphotericin B therapy) the patient presented a fatal outcome.

  1. Potential Crash Location (PCL) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-02-05

    LCA ) model provides a method for calculating how large the actual lethal area at the site of impact would be. The LCA model is described in a...helicopter failures. The crash location calculations are just one portion of the TLS tool, the other portion is LCA . Although the LCA is not

  2. Technostress: Surviving a Database Crash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobb, Linda S.

    1990-01-01

    Discussion of technostress in libraries focuses on a database crash at California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo. Steps taken to restore the data are explained, strategies for handling technological accidents are suggested, the impact on library staff is discussed, and a 10-item annotated bibliography on technostress is provided.…

  3. Crash simulations for interior design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poeze, E.; Slaats, P.M.A.

    1996-01-01

    With the increasing number of compact cars, safety aspects becomes increasingly important for interior designs. The smaller dimensions of these cars do not only decrease the car mass, but also the energy absorption length, resulting in a more severe crash pulse. As a consequence, the inertia loading

  4. Impact of pavement conditions on crash severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yingfeng; Liu, Chunxiao; Ding, Liang

    2013-10-01

    Pavement condition has been known as a key factor related to ride quality, but it is less clear how exactly pavement conditions are related to traffic crashes. The researchers used Geographic Information System (GIS) to link Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) Crash Record Information System (CRIS) data and Pavement Management Information System (PMIS) data, which provided an opportunity to examine the impact of pavement conditions on traffic crashes in depth. The study analyzed the correlation between several key pavement condition ratings or scores and crash severity based on a large number of crashes in Texas between 2008 and 2009. The results in general suggested that poor pavement condition scores and ratings were associated with proportionally more severe crashes, but very poor pavement conditions were actually associated with less severe crashes. Very good pavement conditions might induce speeding behaviors and therefore could have caused more severe crashes, especially on non-freeway arterials and during favorable driving conditions. In addition, the results showed that the effects of pavement conditions on crash severity were more evident for passenger vehicles than for commercial vehicles. These results provide insights on how pavement conditions may have contributed to crashes, which may be valuable for safety improvement during pavement design and maintenance. Readers should notice that, although the study found statistically significant effects of pavement variables on crash severity, the effects were rather minor in reality as suggested by frequency analyses. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk Factors for High Blood Pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Share this page from the NHLBI on Twitter. Risk Factors for High Blood Pressure Anyone can develop high blood pressure; however, age, ... Lifestyle Habits Unhealthy lifestyle habits can raise your risk for high blood pressure, and they include: Eating too much sodium or ...

  6. A mixed methods investigation of bicycle exposure in crash rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournier, Nicholas; Christofa, Eleni; Knodler, Michael A

    2017-03-01

    Crash rates are an essential tool enabling researchers and practitioners to assess whether a location is truly more dangerous, or simply serves a higher volume of vehicles. Unfortunately, this simple crash rate is far more difficult to calculate for bicycles due to data challenges and the fact that they are uniquely exposed to both bicycle and automobile volumes on shared roadways. Bicycle count data, though increasingly more available, still represents a fraction of the available count data for automobiles. Further compounding on this, bicycle demand estimation methods often require more data than automobiles to account for the high variability that bicycle demand is subject to. This paper uses a combination of mixed methods to overcome these challenges and to perform an investigation of crash rates and exposure to different traffic volumes.

  7. Motor vehicle crashes during pregnancy and cerebral palsy during infancy: a longitudinal cohort analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redelmeier, Donald A; Naqib, Faisal; Thiruchelvam, Deva; R Barrett, Jon F

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To assess the incidence of cerebral palsy among children born to mothers who had their pregnancy complicated by a motor vehicle crash. Design Retrospective longitudinal cohort analysis of children born from 1 April 2002 to 31 March 2012 in Ontario, Canada. Participants Cases defined as pregnancies complicated by a motor vehicle crash and controls as remaining pregnancies with no crash. Main outcome Subsequent diagnosis of cerebral palsy by age 3 years. Results A total of 1 325 660 newborns were analysed, of whom 7933 were involved in a motor vehicle crash during pregnancy. A total of 2328 were subsequently diagnosed with cerebral palsy, equal to an absolute risk of 1.8 per 1000 newborns. For the entire cohort, motor vehicle crashes correlated with a 29% increased risk of subsequent cerebral palsy that was not statistically significant (95% CI −16 to +110, p=0.274). The increased risk was only significant for those with preterm birth who showed an 89% increased risk of subsequent cerebral palsy associated with a motor vehicle crash (95% CI +7 to +266, p=0.037). No significant increase was apparent for those with a term delivery (95% CI −62 to +79, p=0.510). A propensity score-matched analysis of preterm births (n=4384) yielded a 138% increased relative risk of cerebral palsy associated with a motor vehicle crash (95% CI +27 to +349, p=0.007), equal to an absolute increase of about 10.9 additional cases per 1000 newborns (18.2 vs 7.3, p=0.010). Conclusions Motor vehicle crashes during pregnancy may be associated with an increased risk of cerebral palsy among the subgroup of cases with preterm birth. The increase highlights a specific role for traffic safety advice in prenatal care. PMID:27650764

  8. Evaluating the police service quality for handling traffic crash reporting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janstrup, Kira Hyldekær; Kaplan, Sigal; Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    2017-01-01

    -based survey on the basis of the SERVQUAL approach to detecting strengths, opportunities and threats with crash reporting to the police at a strategic level. Transportation stakeholders (e.g. researchers, authorities, consultants, NGO representatives, suppliers) with an interest in traffic safety in Denmark....../value This study advances the knowledge about police service quality with a novel expert-based decision support tool based on SERVQUAL, MCDA and LCA, demonstrates its applicability in countries with a high-police service, and opportunities and barriers for increasing the crash reporting rate....

  9. A Review of Evidence-Based Traffic Engineering Measures Designed to Reduce Pedestrian-Motor Vehicle Crashes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Retting, Richard A; Ferguson, Susan A; McCartt, Anne T

    2003-01-01

    ... with adequate methodological designs, showed that modification of the built environment can substantially reduce the risk of pedestrian-vehicle crashes. (Am J Public Health. 2003;93:1456-1463) DESPITE DECLINING RATES OF pedestrian fatalities (most notably declines among children and older adults), pedestrian crash injuries remain a serious ...

  10. Comparison of pregnant and non-pregnant occupant crash and injury characteristics based on national crash data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manoogian, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study was to provide specific characteristics of injuries and crash characteristics for pregnant occupants from the National Automotive Sampling System/Crashworthiness Data System (NASS/CDS) database for pregnant women as a group, broken down by trimester, and compared to non-pregnant women. Using all NASS/CDS cases collected between the years 2000 and 2012 with at least one pregnant occupant, the entire pregnant data set included 321,820 vehicles, 324,535 occupants, and 640,804 injuries. The pregnant occupant data were compared to the characteristics of NASS/CDS cases for 14,719,533 non-pregnant females 13-44 years old in vehicle crashes from 2000 to 2012. Sixty five percent of pregnant women were located in the front left seat position and roughly the same percentage of pregnant women was wearing a lap and shoulder belt. The average change in velocity was 11.6 mph for pregnant women and over 50% of crashes for pregnant women were frontal collisions. From these collisions, less than seven percent of pregnant women sustained MAIS 2+ injuries. Minor differences between the pregnant and non-pregnant occupants were identified in the body region and source of injuries sustained. However, the data indicated no large differences in injury or crash characteristics based on trimester of pregnancy. Moreover, the risk of an MAIS 2+ level injury for pregnant occupants is similar to the risk of injury for non-pregnant occupants based on the total vehicle change in velocity. Overall this study provides useful data for researchers to focus future efforts in pregnant occupant research. Additionally, this study reinforces that more detailed and complete data on pregnant crashes needs to be collected to understand the risk for pregnant occupants.

  11. Efecto de las circunstancias ambientales sobre el riesgo de defunción de los conductores de vehículos de dos ruedas de motor implicados en accidentes de tráfico Effect of environmental factors on the risk of death for drivers of two-wheeled motorized vehicles involved in road crashes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Donate-López

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Objetivos: Valorar el efecto de las circunstancias ambientales sobre el riesgo de muerte de los conductores de vehículos de dos ruedas de motor (VDRM tras un accidente de tráfico. Métodos: Se ha estudiado la serie de casos formada por los 309.626 conductores de VDRM implicados en accidentes de tráfico con víctimas en España, entre 1993 y 2002, recogidos por la Dirección General de Tráfico. La variable dependiente ha sido la defunción del conductor. Como variables ambientales se han considerado factores temporales (año, mes, día y hora y espaciales (zona del accidente, iluminación, entre otros. También se han recogido potenciales factores de confusión dependientes del conductor (edad, sexo, uso de casco, del vehículo y el tipo de accidente. Se han obtenido, mediante modelos de regresión de Poisson, riesgos relativos crudos y ajustados para cada categoría ambiental. Resultados: Para la mayoría de las variables temporales, no hay asociación con el riesgo de defunción en el análisis ajustado, a excepción de un mayor riesgo para la conducción de madrugada. El riesgo aumenta fuertemente en carretera (especialmente autopistas y autovías con respecto a las zonas urbanas, para las que hay una clara relación dosis-respuesta entre un menor tamaño del municipio y una mayor letalidad. Conclusiones: Tras ajustar por los factores de riesgo dependientes del conductor, el efecto de los factores ambientales sobre el riesgo de muerte del conductor de un VDRM tras el accidente se circunscribe a la zona donde se produce el accidente y, en menor medida, a la hora en que ocurre.Objectives: To assess the effect of environmental factors on the risk of death for drivers of two-wheeled motorized vehicles (TWMV after a crash. Methods: We studied a case series comprising all 309,626 drivers of TWMV involved in road crashes with victims compiled by the Spanish Department of Transportation from 993 to 2002. The dependent variable was death of the

  12. Use of age-period-cohort models to estimate effects of vehicle age, year of crash and year of vehicle manufacture on driver injury and fatality rates in single vehicle crashes in New South Wales, 2003-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, R W G; Searson, D J

    2015-02-01

    A novel application of age-period-cohort methods are used to explain changes in vehicle based crash rates in New South Wales, Australia over the period 2003-2010. Models are developed using vehicle age, crash period and vehicle cohort to explain changes in the rate of single vehicle driver fatalities and injuries in vehicles less than 13 years of age. Large declines in risk are associated with vehicle cohorts built after about 1996. The decline in risk appears to have accelerated to 12 percent per vehicle cohort year for cohorts since 2004. Within each cohort, the risk of crashing appears to be a minimum at two years of age and increases as the vehicle ages beyond this. Period effects (i.e., other road safety measures) between 2003 and 2010 appear to have contributed to declines of up to about two percent per annum to the driver-fatality single vehicle crash rate, and possibly only negligible improvements to the driver-injury single vehicle crash rate. Vehicle improvements appear to have been responsible for a decline in per-vehicle crash risk of at least three percent per calendar year for both severity levels over the same period. Given the decline in risk associated with more recent vehicle cohorts and the dynamics of fleet turnover, continued declines in per-vehicle crash risk over coming years are almost certain. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Rates of intentionally caused and road crash deaths of US citizens abroad.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherry, Melissa K; Mossallam, Mahmoud; Mulligan, Matthew; Hyder, Adnan A; Bishai, David

    2015-04-01

    Currently, little is known about rates of death by cause and country among US travellers. Understanding the risk by cause and country is imperative to risk communication and the development of risk reduction strategies. Publicly available data on non-natural deaths of US citizens abroad were gathered from January 2003 to December 2009 from the US Department of State's Department Bureau of Consular Affairs. Traveller information was gathered from the US Department of Commerce Office of Travel and Tourism for the same time period. Rates of death were calculated by dividing the number of non-natural deaths of US citizens abroad by the number of US outbound visits for each country. A total of 5417 non-natural death events were retrieved between 2003 and 2009 from the US State Department. Intentionally caused death rates ranged from 21.44 per 1 000 000 visits in the Philippines to 0 per 1 000 000 visits in several countries; the majority of countries had fewer than five intentionally caused deaths per 1 000 000 visits. Rates of road traffic crashes were higher than rates of intentionally caused deaths in almost every instance. Thailand had the highest rate of deaths due to road traffic crashes (16.49 per 1 000 000), followed by Vietnam, Morocco and South Africa (15.12 per 1 000 000, 11.96 per 1 000 000 and 10.90 per 1 000 000, respectively). Motorcycle deaths account for most of the heightened risk observed in Thailand and Vietnam. The leading cause of non-natural deaths in US travellers abroad was road crashes, which exceeds intentional injury as the leading cause of non-natural deaths in almost every country where US citizens travel. Southeast Asia had the highest unintentional injury death rates for US citizens abroad due to the high rates of deaths from motorcycle crashes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  14. Vehicular crash data used to rank intersections by injury crash frequency and severity

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Liu, Yi; Li, Zongzhi; Liu, Jingxian; Patel, Harshingar

    2016-01-01

    .... For each intersection, vehicular crashes were counted by crash severity levels, including fatal, injury Types A, B, and C for major, moderate, and minor injury levels, property damage only (PDO), and unknown...

  15. Rayleigh-Taylor instability simulations with CRASH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, C.-C.; Fryxell, B.; Drake, R. P.

    2012-03-01

    CRASH is a code package developed for the predictive study of radiative shocks. It is based on the BATSRUS MHD code used extensively for space-weather research. We desire to extend the applications of this code to the study of hydrodynamically unstable systems. We report here the results of Rayleigh-Taylor instability (RTI) simulations with CRASH, as a necessary step toward the study of such systems. Our goal, motivated by the previous comparison of simulations and experiment, is to be able to simulate the magnetic RTI with self-generated magnetic fields produced by the Biermann Battery effect. Here we show results for hydrodynamic RTI, comparing the effects of different solvers and numerical parameters. We find that the early-time behavior converges to the analytical result of the linear theory. We observe that the late-time morphology is sensitive to the numerical scheme and limiter beta. At low-resolution limit, the growth of RTI is highly dependent on the setup and resolution, which we attribute to the large numerical viscosity at low resolution.

  16. Vehicular crash data used to rank intersections by injury crash frequency and severity

    OpenAIRE

    Yi Liu; Zongzhi Li; Jingxian Liu; Harshingar Patel

    2016-01-01

    This article contains data on research conducted in “A double standard model for allocating limited emergency medical service vehicle resources ensuring service reliability” (Liu et al., 2016) [1]. The crash counts were sorted out from comprehensive crash records of over one thousand major signalized intersections in the city of Chicago from 2004 to 2010. For each intersection, vehicular crashes were counted by crash severity levels, including fatal, injury Types A, B, and C for major, modera...

  17. Real-world car-to-pedestrian-crash data from an urban centre

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthes Gerrit

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pedestrians are at a high risk for crash and injury. This study aims at comparing data from real world crashes with data gathered from experimental settings. Methods IMPAIR (In-Depth Medical Pedestrian Accident Investigation and Reconstruction was a prospective, observational study performed in a metropolitan area. Data was collected on-scene, from clinical records, and interviews. Data comprise crash data, details on injury pattern and injury severity. Results Thirty-seven pedestrians (of which 19 males with a mean 37.1 years of age were included in the study. The mean collision speed was 49.5 km/h (SD 13.7, range, 28 - 93. The mean ISS (31.0, SD 25.4 and the 24% fatality rate indicate a substantial trauma load. The most common AIS 4+ injuries were to the head (23 subjects, followed by chest (8, pelvis (4, and abdomen (2. An association of impact side and injury side (right/left was found for abdominal, chest, pelvic, and upper limb injuries. Primary head impacts were documented on the windscreen (19 subjects, hood (10, A-pillar (2, and edge of the car roof (2. With bivariate analysis, a significant increase of MAIS 4+ head injury risk was found for collision speeds of >40 km/h (OR 9.00, 95% CI 1.96-41.36. Conclusion The real-world data from this study is in agreement with previous findings from biomechanical models and other simulations. This data suggest that there may be reason to include further pedestrian regulations in EuroNCAP.

  18. AP calculus AB & BC crash course

    CERN Document Server

    Rosebush, J

    2012-01-01

    AP Calculus AB & BC Crash Course - Gets You a Higher Advanced Placement Score in Less Time Crash Course is perfect for the time-crunched student, the last-minute studier, or anyone who wants a refresher on the subject. AP Calculus AB & BC Crash Course gives you: Targeted, Focused Review - Study Only What You Need to Know Crash Course is based on an in-depth analysis of the AP Calculus AB & BC course description outline and actual AP test questions. It covers only the information tested on the exams, so you can make the most of your valuable study time. Written by experienced math teachers, our

  19. Multifractal analysis of stock exchange crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siokis, Fotios M.

    2013-03-01

    We analyze the complexity of rare events of the DJIA Index. We reveal that the returns of the time series exhibit strong multifractal properties meaning that temporal correlations play a substantial role. The effect of major stock market crashes can be best illustrated by the comparison of the multifractal spectra of the time series before and after the crash. Aftershock periods compared to foreshock periods exhibit richer and more complex dynamics. Compared to an average crash, calculated by taking into account the larger 5 crashes of the DJIA Index, the 1929 event exhibits significantly more increase in multifractality than the 1987 crisis.

  20. AP English language & composition crash course

    CERN Document Server

    Hogue, Dawn

    2012-01-01

    AP English Language & Composition Crash Course - Gets You a Higher Advanced Placement Score in Less Time Crash Course is perfect for the time-crunched student, the last-minute studier, or anyone who wants a refresher on the subject. AP English Language & Composition Crash Course gives you: Targeted, Focused Review - Study Only What You Need to Know Crash Course is based on an in-depth analysis of the AP English Language & Composition course description outline and actual Advanced Placement test questions. It covers only the information tested on the exam, so you can make the most of your valua

  1. The interactive effect on injury severity of driver-vehicle units in two-vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Qiang; Wen, Huiying; Huang, Helai

    2016-12-01

    This study sets out to investigate the interactive effect on injury severity of driver-vehicle units in two-vehicle crashes. A Bayesian hierarchical ordered logit model is proposed to relate the variation and correlation of injury severity of drivers involved in two-vehicle crashes to the factors of both driver-vehicle units and the crash configurations. A total of 6417 crash records with 12,834 vehicles involved in Florida are used for model calibration. The results show that older, female and not-at-fault drivers and those without use of safety equipment are more likely to be injured but less likely to injure the drivers in the other vehicles. New vehicles and lower speed ratios are associated with lower injury degree of both drivers involved. Compared with automobiles, vans, pick-ups, light trucks, median trucks, and heavy trucks possess better self-protection and stronger aggressivity. The points of impact closer to the driver's seat in general indicate a higher risk to the own drivers while engine cover and vehicle rear are the least hazardous to other drivers. Head-on crashes are significantly more severe than angle and rear-end crashes. We found that more severe crashes occurred on roadways than on shoulders or safety zones. Based on these results, some suggestions for traffic safety education, enforcement and engineering are made. Moreover, significant within-crash correlation is found in the crash data, which demonstrates the applicability of the proposed model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  2. Car Crashes and Central Disorders of Hypersomnolence: A French Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Pizza

    Full Text Available Drowsiness compromises driving ability by reducing alertness and attentiveness, and delayed reaction times. Sleep-related car crashes account for a considerable proportion of accident at the wheel. Narcolepsy type 1 (NT1, narcolepsy type 2 (NT2 and idiopathic hypersomnia (IH are rare central disorders of hypersomnolence, the most severe causes of sleepiness thus being potential dangerous conditions for both personal and public safety with increasing scientific, social, and political attention. Our main objective was to assess the frequency of recent car crashes in a large cohort of patients affected with well-defined central disorders of hypersomnolence versus subjects from the general population.We performed a cross-sectional study in French reference centres for rare hypersomnia diseases and included 527 patients and 781 healthy subjects. All participants included needed to have a driving license, information available on potential accident events during the last 5 years, and on potential confounders; thus analyses were performed on 282 cases (71 IH, 82 NT2, 129 NT1 and 470 healthy subjects.Patients reported more frequently than healthy subjects the occurrence of recent car crashes (in the previous five years, a risk that was confirmed in both treated and untreated subjects at study inclusion (Untreated, OR = 2.21 95%CI = [1.30-3.76], Treated OR = 2.04 95%CI = [1.26-3.30], as well as in all disease categories, and was modulated by subjective sleepiness level (Epworth scale and naps. Conversely, the risk of car accidents of patients treated for at least 5 years was not different to healthy subjects (OR = 1.23 95%CI = [0.56-2.69]. Main risk factors were analogous in patients and healthy subjects.Patients affected with central disorders of hypersomnolence had increased risk of recent car crashes compared to subjects from the general population, a finding potentially reversed by long-term treatment.

  3. Tiring job and work related injury road crashes in the GAZEL cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiron, Mireille; Bernard, Marlène; Lafont, Sylviane; Lagarde, Emmanuel

    2008-05-01

    The objective was to describe at-work and commuting crashes occurring in a cohort of French employees and to investigate occupational risk factors. The subjects were employees of the French national electricity and gas companies, Electricité de France and Gaz de France (EDF-GDF), who volunteered to join a research cohort (the GAZEL cohort which included 20,625 participants in 1989). Only crashes with injuries were considered. Crashes for the periods 1989--2001 were recorded together with the type of journey (commuting, work, private), the type of road-user, self-estimated responsibility, and injuries sustained by the subject. Annual incidences for gender/age groups and socio-occupational groups were computed for each of the two types of work related crashes. Occupational risk factor analyses were conducted using a Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-dependent covariates adjusting for the main confounders. A total of 146,285 person years at work were observed. Two indicators of self-reported work fatigue were associated with the occurrence of at-work crashes: "nervously tiring work" for males (RR=1.6, 95% CI [1.1; 2.3]), sustained standing for females (RR=3.0, 95% CI [1.0; 8.4]), adjusting for health status, location of residence, type of family, transport mode and mileage. As regards crashes while commuting, a self-reported uncomfortable position at work was a risk factor among women (RR=1.9, 95% CI [1.1; 3.3]). On the other hand, these occupational factors were not linked to road crashes in private trips. Work related road crashes seem then to be a matter for a specific prevention. Preventing employees from becoming exhausted should be considered as the first way to initiate such a prevention.

  4. A Deadly Crash

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Train accident raises concerns about the safety of China’s high-speed trains Design flaws in railway signal equipment have been blamed for the July 23 train collision near Wenzhou in east China’s Zhejiang Province.

  5. Highly Enhanced Risk Management Emergency Satellite

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalmeir, Michael; Gataullin, Yunir; Indrajit, Agung

    HERMES (Highly Enhanced Risk Management Emergency Satellite) is potential European satellite mission for global flood management, being implemented by Technical University Munich and European Space Agency. With its main instrument - a reliable and precise Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) antenna...

  6. Understand Your Risk for High Cholesterol

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Aortic Aneurysm More Understand Your Risk for High Cholesterol Updated:Apr 1,2016 LDL (bad) cholesterol is ... content was last reviewed on 04/21/2014. Cholesterol Guidelines: Putting the pieces together Myth vs. Truth – ...

  7. High Blood Pressure May Hike Dementia Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... fullstory_161398.html High Blood Pressure May Hike Dementia Risk New statement from American Heart Association warns ... in middle age, might open the door to dementia, the American Heart Association warns in a new ...

  8. Modeling fault among motorcyclists involved in crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haque, Md Mazharul; Chin, Hoong Chor; Huang, Helai

    2009-03-01

    Singapore crash statistics from 2001 to 2006 show that the motorcyclist fatality and injury rates per registered vehicle are higher than those of other motor vehicles by 13 and 7 times, respectively. The crash involvement rate of motorcyclists as victims of other road users is also about 43%. The objective of this study is to identify the factors that contribute to the fault of motorcyclists involved in crashes. This is done by using the binary logit model to differentiate between at-fault and not-at-fault cases and the analysis is further categorized by the location of the crashes, i.e., at intersections, on expressways and at non-intersections. A number of explanatory variables representing roadway characteristics, environmental factors, motorcycle descriptions, and rider demographics have been evaluated. Time trend effect shows that not-at-fault crash involvement of motorcyclists has increased with time. The likelihood of night time crashes has also increased for not-at-fault crashes at intersections and expressways. The presence of surveillance cameras is effective in reducing not-at-fault crashes at intersections. Wet-road surfaces increase at-fault crash involvement at non-intersections. At intersections, not-at-fault crash involvement is more likely on single-lane roads or on median lane of multi-lane roads, while on expressways at-fault crash involvement is more likely on the median lane. Roads with higher speed limit have higher at-fault crash involvement and this is also true on expressways. Motorcycles with pillion passengers or with higher engine capacity have higher likelihood of being at-fault in crashes on expressways. Motorcyclists are more likely to be at-fault in collisions involving pedestrians and this effect is higher at night. In multi-vehicle crashes, motorcyclists are more likely to be victims than at-fault. Young and older riders are more likely to be at-fault in crashes than middle-aged group of riders. The findings of this study will help

  9. Observed and unobserved correlation between crash avoidance manoeuvers and crash severity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    Understanding drivers’ responses to critical events, analyzing drivers’ abilities to perform corrective manoeuvers, and investigating the correlation between these manoeuvers and crash severity provide the opportunity of increasing the knowledge about how to avoid crash occurrence or at least...... mitigate crash severity. We extend existing research on the determinants of engaging in crash avoidance manoeuvers by considering that observable and unobservable factors relate to both the selection of corrective manoeuvers and the severity outcome. Accordingly, we propose a joint multinomial......-logit ordered-probit model of single-vehicle crashes extracted from the NASS GES database for the years 2005–2009. Results show (1) the existence of unobserved correlation between crash avoidance manoeuvers and crash severity, and (2) the link between drivers’ attributes, risky driving behaviour, road...

  10. Sympathetic crashing acute pulmonary edema.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, Naman; Kumar, Akshay; Aggarwal, Praveen; Jamshed, Nayer

    2016-12-01

    Sympathetic crashing acute pulmonary edema (SCAPE) is the extreme end of the spectrum of acute pulmonary edema. It is important to understand this disease as it is relatively common in the emergency department (ED) and has better outcomes when managed appropriately. The patients have an abrupt redistribution of fluid in the lungs, and when treated promptly and effectively, these patients will rapidly recover. Noninvasive ventilation and intravenous nitrates are the mainstay of treatment which should be started within minutes of the patient's arrival to the ED. Use of morphine and intravenous loop diuretics, although popular, has poor scientific evidence.

  11. Crash response data system for the controlled impact demonstration (CID) of a full scale transport aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calloway, Raymond S.; Knight, Vernie H., Jr.

    1986-01-01

    NASA Langley's Crash Response Data System (CRDS) which is designed to acquire aircraft structural and anthropomorphic dummy responses during the full-scale transport CID test is described. Included in the discussion are the system design approach, details on key instrumentation subsystems and operations, overall instrumentation crash performance, and data recovery results. Two autonomous high-environment digital flight instrumentation systems, DAS 1 and DAS 2, were employed to obtain research data from various strain gage, accelerometer, and tensiometric sensors installed in the B-720 test aircraft. The CRDS successfully acquired 343 out of 352 measurements of dynamic crash data.

  12. Crash barrier research in the Netherlands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Flury, F.C. & Paar, H.G.

    1973-01-01

    Research by the SWOV has led to the development of a series of crash barriers of basically the same design but with varying degrees of resistance to lateral deflection. Requirements to which in general a crash barrier should fulfill are presented.

  13. VEDYAC : a powerful aid in crash research.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijer, T.

    1988-01-01

    The name VEDYAC is an acronym for VEhicle DYnamics And Crash. It pertains to a computer program capable of simulating a large variety of vehicles, vehicle manoevres and crash conditions in equally variable surroundings. These main features will be adstructed and some results of recent work are shown

  14. Action plan pre-crash evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bartels, O.; Langner, T.; Aparicio, A.; Lemmen, P.; Rodarius, C.

    2010-01-01

    This deliverable “Action plan pre-crash evaluation” forms the starting point of WP4 pre-crash evaluation. This document mainly is the outcome of a two days workshop held at BASt. It is strongly linked to the WP1.1 results that came up with data concerning the accident situation on European roads. WP

  15. Advances in numerical modelling of crash dummies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoeve, R.; Kant, R.; Margerie, L.

    2001-01-01

    Nowadays virtual testing and prototyping are generally accepted methods in crash safety research and design studies. Validated numerical crash dummy models are necessary tools in these methods. Computer models need to be robust, accurate and CPU efficient, where the balance between accuracy and effi

  16. Future of human models for crash analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, J.S.H.M.; Happee, R.; Hoof, J.F.A.M. van; Lange, R. de

    2001-01-01

    In the crash safety field mathematical models can be applied in practically all area's of research and development including: reconstruction of actual accidents, design (CAD) of the crash response of vehicles, safety devices and roadside facilities and in support of human impact biomechanical

  17. Advances in numerical modelling of crash dummies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoeve, R.; Kant, R.; Margerie, L.

    2001-01-01

    Nowadays virtual testing and prototyping are generally accepted methods in crash safety research and design studies. Validated numerical crash dummy models are necessary tools in these methods. Computer models need to be robust, accurate and CPU efficient, where the balance between accuracy and effi

  18. Future of human models for crash analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, J.S.H.M.; Happee, R.; Hoof, J.F.A.M. van; Lange, R. de

    2001-01-01

    In the crash safety field mathematical models can be applied in practically all area's of research and development including: reconstruction of actual accidents, design (CAD) of the crash response of vehicles, safety devices and roadside facilities and in support of human impact biomechanical studie

  19. Suppression of edge localized mode crashes by multi-spectral non-axisymmetric fields in KSTAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jayhyun; Park, Gunyoung; Bae, Cheonho; Yoon, Siwoo; Han, Hyunsun; Yoo, Min-Gu; Park, Young-Seok; Ko, Won-Ha; Juhn, June-Woo; Na, Yong Su; The KSTAR Team

    2017-02-01

    Among various edge localized mode (ELM) crash control methods, only non-axisymmetric magnetic perturbations (NAMPs) yield complete suppression of ELM crashes beyond their mitigation, and thus attract more attention than others. No other devices except KSTAR, DIII-D, and recently EAST have successfully achieved complete suppression with NAMPs. The underlying physics mechanisms of these successful ELM crash suppressions in a non-axisymmetric field environment, however, still remain uncertain. In this work, we investigate the ELM crash suppression characteristics of the KSTAR ELMy H-mode discharges in a controlled multi-spectral field environment, created by both n=2 middle reference and n=1 top/bottom proxy in-vessel control coils. Interestingly, the attempts have produced a set of contradictory findings, one expected (ELM crash suppression enhancement with the addition of n  =  1 to the n  =  2 field at relatively low heating discharges) and another unexpected (ELM crash suppression degradation at relatively high heating discharges) from the earlier findings in DIII-D. This contradiction indicates the dependence of the ELM crash suppression characteristics on the heating level and the associated kink-like plasma responses. Preliminary linear resistive MHD plasma response simulation shows the unexpected suppression performance degradation to be likely caused by the dominance of kink-like plasma responses over the island gap-filling effects.

  20. Influences of pre-crash braking induced dummy - forward displacements on dummy behaviour during EuroNCAP frontal crashtest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woitsch, Gernot; Sinz, Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    Combination of active and passive safety systems is a future key to further improvement in vehicle safety. Autonomous braking systems are able to reduce collision speeds, and therefore severity levels significantly. Passengers change their position due to pre-impact vehicle motion, a fact, which has not yet been considered in common crash tests. For this paper, finite elements simulations of crash tests were performed to show that forward displacements due to pre-crash braking do not necessarily increase dummy load levels. So the influence of different pre-crash scenarios, all leading to equal closing speeds in the crash phase, are considered in terms of vehicle motion (pitching, deceleration) and restraint system configurations (belt load limiter, pretensioner). The influence is evaluated by dummy loads as well as contact risk between the dummy and the interior. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Sleep Duration and Injury-Related Risk Behaviors Among High School Students--United States, 2007-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheaton, Anne G; Olsen, Emily O'Malley; Miller, Gabrielle F; Croft, Janet B

    2016-04-08

    Insufficient sleep is common among high school students and has been associated with an increased risk for motor vehicle crashes (1), sports injuries (2), and occupational injuries (3). To evaluate the association between self-reported sleep duration on an average school night and several injury-related risk behaviors (infrequent bicycle helmet use, infrequent seatbelt use, riding with a driver who had been drinking, drinking and driving, and texting while driving) among U.S. high school students, CDC analyzed data from 50,370 high school students (grades 9-12) who participated in the national Youth Risk Behavior Surveys (YRBSs) in 2007, 2009, 2011, or 2013. The likelihood of each of the five risk behaviors was significantly higher for students who reported sleeping ≤7 hours on an average school night; infrequent seatbelt use, riding with a drinking driver, and drinking and driving were also more likely for students who reported sleeping ≥10 hours compared with 9 hours on an average school night. Although insufficient sleep directly contributes to injury risk, some of the increased risk associated with insufficient sleep might be caused by engaging in injury-related risk behaviors. Intervention efforts aimed at these behaviors might help reduce injuries resulting from sleepiness, as well as provide opportunities for increasing awareness of the importance of sleep.

  2. Planning High-Risk High-Reward Activities.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Casault, Sébastien

    2014-01-01

    This body of work addresses a gap in financial and economic theories related to assets that are typically associated with high uncertainty. Specifically, this thesis provides some foundational work towards a new way to quantify and explain how high-risk high-reward activities, such as exploration,

  3. Crash-Related Mortality and Model Year: Are Newer Vehicles Safer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryb, Gabriel E; Dischinger, Patricia C; McGwin, Gerald; Griffin, Russell L

    2011-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this study was to determine whether occupants of newer vehicles experience a lower risk of crash-related mortality. Methods: The occurrence of death was studied in relation to vehicle model year (MY) among front seat vehicular occupants, age ≥ 16 captured in the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) between 2000 and 2008. The associations between death and other occupant, vehicular and crash characteristics were also explored. Multiple logistic regression models for the prediction of death were built with model year as the independent variable and other characteristics linked to death as covariates. Imputation was used for missing data; weighted data was used. Results: A total of 70,314 cases representing 30,514,372 weighted cases were available for analysis. Death occurred in 0.6% of the weighted population. Death was linked to age>60, male gender, higher BMI, near lateral direction of impact, high delta v, rollover, ejection and vehicle mismatch, and negatively associated with seatbelt use and rear and far lateral direction of impact. Mortality decreased with later model year groups (MY<94 0.78%, MY 94–97 0.53%, MY 98-04 0.51% and MY 05–08 0.38%, p=<0.0001). After adjustment for confounders, MY 94–97, MY 98-04 and MY 05–08 showed decreased odds of death [OR 0.80 (0.69–0.94), 0.82 (0.70–0.97), and 0.67 (0.47–0.96), respectively] when compared to MY <94. Conclusion: Newer vehicles are associated with lower crash-related mortality. Their introduction into the vehicle fleet may explain, at least in part, the decrease in mortality rates in the past two decades. PMID:22105389

  4. Not all risks are equal: the risk taking inventory for high-risk sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Tim; Barlow, Matt; Bandura, Comille; Hill, Miles; Kupciw, Dominika; Macgregor, Alexandra

    2013-10-01

    Although high-risk sport participants are typically considered a homogenous risk-taking population, attitudes to risk within the high-risk domain can vary considerably. As no validated measure allows researchers to assess risk taking within this domain, we validated the Risk Taking Inventory (RTI) for high-risk sport across four studies. The RTI comprises seven items across two factors: deliberate risk taking and precautionary behaviors. In Study 1 (n = 341), the inventory was refined and tested via a confirmatory factor analysis used in an exploratory fashion. The subsequent three studies confirmed the RTI's good model-data fit via three further separate confirmatory factor analyses. In Study 2 (n = 518) and in Study 3 (n = 290), concurrent validity was also confirmed via associations with other related traits (sensation seeking, behavioral activation, behavioral inhibition, impulsivity, self-esteem, extraversion, and conscientiousness). In Study 4 (n = 365), predictive validity was confirmed via associations with mean accidents and mean close calls in the high-risk domain. Finally, in Study 4, the self-report version of the inventory was significantly associated with an informant version of the inventory. The measure will allow researchers and practitioners to investigate risk taking as a variable that is conceptually distinct from participation in a high-risk sport.

  5. Psychological implications of high-risk pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumberbatch, Carla-Joy; Birndorf, Catherine; Dresner, Nehama

    2005-01-01

    The psychological adjustments of "normal" pregnancy are complex, and those of high-risk pregnancy are even more pronounced and severe. A pregnancy may be determined to be at high risk because of obstetric factors in previous pregnancies or the present one; more general medical factors, such as preexisting or emergent disease (often, diabetes); and conditions that are, themselves, psychosocial: anxiety disorders (GAD, OCD, panic disorder, PTSD), mood disorders, and schizophrenia, all of which are a background for a disturbed pregnancy and might complicate a pregnancy denominated high risk for some other reason. This paper discusses these concepts and, in addition, includes sections on pregnancy in adolescence, in the developmentally disabled, and in the situation of chemical dependence (substance abuse).

  6. Highway crash rates and age-related driver limitations: Literature review and evaluation of data bases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, P.S. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Young, J.R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States); Lu, An [Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc., TN (United States)

    1993-08-01

    American society is undergoing a major demographic transformation that is resulting in a larger proportion of older individuals in the population. Moreover, recent travel surveys show that an increasing number of older individuals are licensed to drive and that they drive more than their same age cohort a decade ago. However, they continue to take shorter trips than younger drivers and they avoid driving during congested hours. This recent demographic transformation in our society, the graying of America, coupled with the increasing mobility of the older population impose a serious highway safety issue that cannot be overlooked. Some of the major concerns are the identification of ``high-risk`` older drivers and the establishment of licensing guidelines and procedures that are based on conclusive scientific evidence. Oak Ridge National Laboratory`s (ORNL) objectives in this project can be characterized by the following tasks: Review and evaluate the 1980 American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators (AAMVA) and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) licensing guidelines. Determine whether the license restriction recommended in the 1980 AAMVA and NHTSA guidelines was based on scientific evidence or on judgement of medical advisors. Identify in the scientific literature any medical conditions which are found to be highly associated with highway crashes, and which are not mentioned in the 1980 guidelines. Summarize States` current licensing practices for drivers with age-related physical and mental limitations. Identify potential data sources to establish conclusive evidence on age-related functional impairments and highway crashes.

  7. Comparison of Thoracic Injury Risk in Frontal Car Crashes for Occupant Restrained without Belt Load Limiters and Those Restrained with 6 kN and 4 kN Belt Load Limiters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foret-Bruno, J Y; Trosseille, X; Page, Y; Huère, J F; Le Coz, J Y; Bendjellal, F; Diboine, A; Phalempin, T; Villeforceix, D; Baudrit, P; Guillemot, H; Coltat, J C

    2001-11-01

    In France, as in other countries, accident research studies show that a large proportion of restrained occupants who sustain severe or fatal injuries are involved in frontal impacts (65% and 50%, respectively). In severe frontal impacts with restrained occupants and where intrusion is not preponderant, the oldest occupants very often sustain severe thoracic injuries due to the conventional seat belt. As we have been observing over the last years, we will expect in the coming years developments which include more solidly-built cars, as offset crash test procedures are widely used to evaluate the passive safety of production vehicles. The reduction of intrusion for the most severe frontal impacts, through optimization of car deformation, usually translates into an increase in restraint forces and hence thoracic injury risk with a conventional retractor seat belt for a given impact severity. It is, therefore essential to limit the restraint forces exerted by the seat belt on the thorax in order to reduce the number of road casualties. In order to address thoracic injury risk in frontal impact, Renault cars have been equipped with the Programmed Restraint System (PRS) since 1995. The PRS is a restraint system that combines belt load limitation and pyrotechnic belt pretension. In an initial design of the Programmed Restraint System (PRS1), the belt load limiter was a steel component designed to shear at a given shoulder force, namely 6 kN. It was mounted between the retractor and the lower anchorage point of the belt. The design of the PRS was modified in 1998 (PRS2), but the principle of load limitation was maintained. The threshold was decreased to 4 kN and this lower belt belt-force limiter has been combined with a specially designed airbag. This paper reports on 347 real-world frontal accidents where the EES (Equivalent Energy Speed) ranged from 35 to 75 km/h. One hundred and ninety-eight (198) of these accidents involved cars equipped with the 6 kN load limiter

  8. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  9. A multivariate random-parameters Tobit model for analyzing highway crash rates by injury severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Qiang; Wen, Huiying; Huang, Helai; Pei, Xin; Wong, S C

    2017-02-01

    In this study, a multivariate random-parameters Tobit model is proposed for the analysis of crash rates by injury severity. In the model, both correlation across injury severity and unobserved heterogeneity across road-segment observations are accommodated. The proposed model is compared with a multivariate (fixed-parameters) Tobit model in the Bayesian context, by using a crash dataset collected from the Traffic Information System of Hong Kong. The dataset contains crash, road geometric and traffic information on 224 directional road segments for a five-year period (2002-2006). The multivariate random-parameters Tobit model provides a much better fit than its fixed-parameters counterpart, according to the deviance information criteria and Bayesian R(2), while it reveals a higher correlation between crash rates at different severity levels. The parameter estimates show that a few risk factors (bus stop, lane changing opportunity and lane width) have heterogeneous effects on crash-injury-severity rates. For the other factors, the variances of their random parameters are insignificant at the 95% credibility level, then the random parameters are set to be fixed across observations. Nevertheless, most of these fixed coefficients are estimated with higher precisions (i.e., smaller variances) in the random-parameters model. Thus, the random-parameters Tobit model, which provides a more comprehensive understanding of the factors' effects on crash rates by injury severity, is superior to the multivariate Tobit model and should be considered a good alternative for traffic safety analysis.

  10. Estimating under-reporting of road crash injuries to police using multiple linked data collections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Angela; Watson, Barry; Vallmuur, Kirsten

    2015-10-01

    The reliance on police data for the counting of road crash injuries can be problematic, as it is well known that not all road crash injuries are reported to police which under-estimates the overall burden of road crash injuries. The aim of this study was to use multiple linked data sources to estimate the extent of under-reporting of road crash injuries to police in the Australian state of Queensland. Data from the Queensland Road Crash Database (QRCD), the Queensland Hospital Admitted Patients Data Collection (QHAPDC), Emergency Department Information System (EDIS), and the Queensland Injury Surveillance Unit (QISU) for the year 2009 were linked. The completeness of road crash cases reported to police was examined via discordance rates between the police data (QRCD) and the hospital data collections. In addition, the potential bias of this discordance (under-reporting) was assessed based on gender, age, road user group, and regional location. Results showed that the level of under-reporting varied depending on the data set with which the police data was compared. When all hospital data collections are examined together the estimated population of road crash injuries was approximately 28,000, with around two-thirds not linking to any record in the police data. The results also showed that the under-reporting was more likely for motorcyclists, cyclists, males, young people, and injuries occurring in Remote and Inner Regional areas. These results have important implications for road safety research and policy in terms of: prioritising funding and resources; targeting road safety interventions into areas of higher risk; and estimating the burden of road crash injuries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Occupant injury in rollover crashes - Contribution of planar impacts with objects and other vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivarsson, Johan; Poplin, Gerald; McMurry, Tim; Crandall, Jeff; Kerrigan, Jason

    2015-12-01

    Planar impacts with objects and other vehicles may increase the risk and severity of injury in rollover crashes. The current study compares the frequency of injury measures (MAIS 2+, 3+, and 4+; fatal; AIS 2+ head and cervical spine; and AIS 3+ head and thorax) as well as vehicle type distribution (passenger car, SUV, van, and light truck), crash kinematics, and occupant demographics between single vehicle single event rollovers (SV Pure) and multiple event rollovers to determine which types of multiple event rollovers can be pooled with SV Pure to study rollover induced occupant injury. Four different types of multiple event rollovers were defined: single and multi-vehicle crashes for which the rollover is the most severe event (SV Prim and MV Prim) and single and multi-vehicle crashes for which the rollover is not the most severe event (SV Non-Prim and MV Non-Prim). Information from real world crashes was obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System - Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) for the period from 1995 through 2011. Belted, contained or partially ejected, adult occupants in vehicles that completed 1-16 lateral quarter turns were assigned to one of the five rollover categories. The results showed that the frequency of injury in non-primary rollovers (SV Non-Prim and MV Non-Prim) involving no more than one roof inversion is substantially greater than in SV Pure, but that this disparity diminishes for crashes involving multiple inversions. It can further be concluded that for a given number of roof inversions, the distribution of injuries and crash characteristics in SV Pure and SV Prim crashes are sufficiently similar for these categories to be considered collectively for purposes of understanding etiologies and developing strategies for prevention.

  12. 49 CFR 238.403 - Crash energy management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Crash energy management. 238.403 Section 238.403... Equipment § 238.403 Crash energy management. (a) Each power car and trailer car shall be designed with a crash energy management system to dissipate kinetic energy during a collision. The crash...

  13. CDC Vital Signs: Motor Vehicle Crash Injuries: Costly but Preventable

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... crashes, and how to prevent future crashes. Problem Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of injury in the US—harmful and expensive. What works to prevent crash injuries? Using primary enforcement seat belt laws that cover everyone in the car. A primary enforcement law means a police officer ...

  14. Psychological profile of high risk sports athlets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Kajtna

    2004-05-01

    Full Text Available The research attempted to compose a psycjhological profile of high risk sports athletes, based on personality, values and sensation seeking. 38 high risk sports athletes participated in the research (alpinists, sky divers, parachute gliders, white water kayakers, downhill mountain bikers, motocross riders, downhill skiers and Nordic jumpers, the non risk sports athletes consisted of 38 swimmers, track athletes, sailers, still water kayakers, rowers, Nordic skiers, sports climbers and karate players, whereas non athletes were equalled with both groups in age and education and included 76 non athletes. We used the self descriptive scale Big five observer, Musek's Value scale and Zuckerman' Sensation seeking scale IV. The dimensions, obtained from the discrimination analysis, were named personality maturity and sensation seeking in a social environment. Our results show that high risk sports athletes are more mature personalities than non risk sports athletes and non athletes and that they do not attempt to find stimulation in social environments. We also suggest some possibilities for further research.

  15. Identification of Patients at High Cardiovascular Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor V. Sergienko, PhD, ScD

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To identify individuals at high cardiovascular risk (CVR to check for an additional estimate of CVR with the use of the ESH/ESC Guidelines (2003, 2007 in patients earlier classified as being at low and moderate risk on «SCORE». Material and methods: The study included 600 people (155 men and 445 women with low and moderate cardiovascular risk on the SCORE scale. All patients were examined with duplex scanning of the carotid arteries (DSCA to the determined of the thickness of the intima – media (IMT, the presence of atherosclerotic plaques (ASP; it has also been performed sphygmographic computer (SC with automatic estimation of brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV, biochemical analysis of blood lipid spectrum. Results: The frequency of ASP was 59.5% (357 out of 600, and a thickening of thecomplex "intima-media" (IMT> 0.9 mm was detected in only 5% of the cases (28 persons out of 600, that indicated a slight contribution to the magnitude of the risk of such parameters as the IMT. The total number of patients with signs of preclinicallesions of the arterial wall (the presence of ASP and/or increased baPWV was 337 (56% of 600. Our results showed that the presence of subclinical atherosclerosis is in itself a risk factor. Conclusion: The usage of instrumental methods of research (DSCA, SC allowed to detect 32% of individuals with high CVR from 600 previously classified as low and moderate risk on SCORE scale. In our opinion, the proposed algorithm is convenient and easy to use for transfer of the patients into high-risk group.

  16. Will higher traffic flow lead to more traffic conflicts? A crash surrogate metric based analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Yan; Qu, Xiaobo; Yan, Yadan

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we aim to examine the relationship between traffic flow and potential conflict risks by using crash surrogate metrics. It has been widely recognized that one traffic flow corresponds to two distinct traffic states with different speeds and densities. In view of this, instead of simply aggregating traffic conditions with the same traffic volume, we represent potential conflict risks at a traffic flow fundamental diagram. Two crash surrogate metrics, namely, Aggregated Crash Index and Time to Collision, are used in this study to represent the potential conflict risks with respect to different traffic conditions. Furthermore, Beijing North Ring III and Next Generation SIMulation Interstate 80 datasets are utilized to carry out case studies. By using the proposed procedure, both datasets generate similar trends, which demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology and the transferability of our conclusions.

  17. Evaluation of an autonomous braking system in real-world PTW crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savino, Giovanni; Pierini, Marco; Rizzi, Matteo; Frampton, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Powered 2-wheelers (PTWs) are becoming increasingly popular in Europe. They have the ability to get around traffic queues, thus lowering fuel consumption and increasing mobility. The risk of rider injury in a traffic crash is however much higher than that associated with car users. The European project, Powered Two Wheeler Integrated Safety (PISa), identified an autonomous braking system (AB) as a priority to reduce the injury consequences of a PTW crash. The aim of this study was to assess the potential effectiveness of the AB system developed in PISa, taking into account the specific system characteristics that emerged during the design, development and testing phases. Fifty-eight PTW cases representing European crash configurations were examined, in which 43 percent of riders sustained a Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 2+ injury. Two of the most common crash types were a PTW impacting a stationary object (car following scenario) 16% and an object pulling across the PTW path (crossing scenario) 54%. An expert team analysed the in-depth material of the sample crashes and determined a posteriori to what extent the AB would have affected the crash. For those cases where the AB was evaluated as applicable, a further quantitative evaluation of the benefits was conducted by considering a set of different possible rider reactions in addition to that exhibited in the actual crash. In 67 percent of cases, the application of AB could have mitigated the crash outcome. Analysis of those real crash cases showed the potential for an expert rider to avoid the collision. An early reaction of the rider, associated with a correct application of the brakes would have avoided 18 of the 37 car following/crossing scenarios. Conversely, according to the analysis, an expert rider would not have been able to avoid 19 of the 37 cases. In 14 of those 19 cases, the AB would have contributed to mitigating the crash outcome. This study demonstrated significant potential for

  18. Forensic aspects of the highway crash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gikas, P W

    1983-01-01

    It can be stated that patterns of injury in highway crashes can often be related to specific design and damage features of the vehicle. The restraint systems designed to attenuate injury may also, under severe crash circumstances, produce trauma. Problems may arise as to identification of vehicular drivers. It behooves the pathologist concerned with the necropsy of crash victims and the physician responsible for treating crash victims to become familiar with the pathogenesis of injuries. Such knowledge can be utilized in the recommendation for improvement of vehicles to render them more crashworthy. Awareness of the various mechanisms of injury in vehicle crashes also enhances the diagnostic skill of the initial treating physician when he or she is confronted with a crash victim in the emergency department. Ideally, when the victim arrives at the hospital, the emergency room physician should be supplied with the details of the crash including the type of vehicle, position within the vehicle, use or nonuse of restraint systems, and the direction of the impact. When a fatality results from a car crash, ideally the autopsy pathologist should inspect the vehicle or at least view pictures of the exterior and interior of the vehicle to help establish the pathogenesis of injury in a specific collision. Unfortunately, because of time constraints, this ideal is not always achieved. Because of the considerable volume of civil and criminal litigation resulting from highway crashes, there is a need for competent medical expertise to help both the plaintiff and the defendent. The pathologist involved in forensic work and the treating physician play a particularly important role in the judicial arena.

  19. Early Identification of Educationally High Potential and High Risk Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keogh, Barbara K.; Smith, Carol E.

    Early identification of educationally high potential and high risk children was investigated by following the same 49 children from kindergarten entrance through grade five of a regular school program. Kindergarten predictive measures were the Bender Gestalt Test and teachers' evaluations; follow-up measures were yearly standard achievement test…

  20. Do driver training programs reduce crashes and traffic violations? — A critical examination of the literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond C. Peck

    2011-03-01

    There is no evidence or reason to believe that merely lengthening the number of hours on the road will increase effectiveness. Programs directed toward attitude change and risk taking better address the underlying cause of the elevated crash risk of young drivers but these behaviors are notoriously resistant to modification in young people.

  1. Breast MRI in high risk patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.I.M. Obdeijn (Inge-Marie)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractAbstract In this thesis we address various indications of breast MRI, with the emphasis on the value of MRI in screening of women with high genetic risk for breast cancer, and especially in BRCA1 mutation carriers. We showed that in the era of up-to-date MRI expertise and digital

  2. Motor vehicle crashes in diabetic patients with tight glycemic control: a population-based case control analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald A Redelmeier

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Complications from diabetes mellitus can compromise a driver's ability to safely operate a motor vehicle, yet little is known about whether euglycemia predicts normal driving risks among adults with diabetes. We studied the association between glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c and the risk of a motor vehicle crash using a population-based case control analysis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We identified consecutive drivers reported to vehicle licensing authorities between January 1, 2005 to January 1, 2007 who had a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus and a HbA1c documented. The risk of a crash was calculated taking into account potential confounders including blood glucose monitoring, complications, and treatments. A total of 57 patients were involved in a crash and 738 were not involved in a crash. The mean HbA1c was lower for those in a crash than controls (7.4% versus 7.9%, unpaired t-test, p = 0.019, equal to a 26% increase in the relative risk of a crash for each 1% reduction in HbA1c (odds ratio = 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.54. The trend was evident across the range of HbA1c values and persisted after adjustment for measured confounders (odds ratio = 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.55. The two other significant risk factors for a crash were a history of severe hypoglycemia requiring outside assistance (odds ratio = 4.07, 95% confidence interval 2.35-7.04 and later age at diabetes diagnosis (odds ratio per decade = 1.29, 95% confidence interval 1.07-1.57. CONCLUSIONS: In this selected population, tighter glycemic control, as measured by the HbA1c, is associated with an increased risk of a motor vehicle crash.

  3. Relationship of Worldwide Rocket Launch Crashes with Geophysical Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Romanova

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A statistical comparison of launch crashes at different worldwide space ports with geophysical factors has been performed. A comprehensive database has been compiled, which includes 50 years of information from the beginning of the space age in 1957 about launch crashes occurring world-wide. Special attention has been paid to statistics concerning launches at the largest space ports: Plesetsk, Baikonur, Cape Canaveral, and Vandenberg. In search of a possible influence of geophysical factors on launch failures, such parameters as the vehicle type, local time, season, sunspot number, high-energy electron fluxes, and solar proton events have been examined. Also, we have analyzed correlations with the geomagnetic indices as indirect indicators of the space weather condition. Regularities found in this study suggest that further detailed studies of space weather effects on launcher systems, especially in the high-latitude regions, should be performed.

  4. Braking News: the Link between Crash Severity and Crash Avoidance Maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    avoidance maneuvers and crash severity, with differences emerging for different critical events. Moreover, results show two trends: (i) most drivers fail to act when facing critical events, and (ii) drivers rarely perform crash avoidance maneuvers that are correlated with higher probability of lower crash...... severity. These trends suggest that effort should be posed toward understanding the reaction mechanisms to different critical events, improving in-vehicle warning systems, promoting responsible driving behavior, and designing forgiving infrastructures....

  5. A multinomial-logit ordered-probit model for jointly analyzing crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    the United States National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System (GES) crash database for the years 2005-2009. Results show (i) the correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity, and (ii) the link between drivers' attributes, risky driving behavior, road characteristics......Effective crash avoidance maneuvers in response to critical unexpected traffic events provide the opportunity to avoid crash occurrence and to minimize crash severity. The current study employs a joint multinomial-logit ordered-probit model (MNL-OR) for associating crash severity with drivers...

  6. Breast MRI in high risk patients

    OpenAIRE

    Obdeijn, Inge-Marie

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractAbstract In this thesis we address various indications of breast MRI, with the emphasis on the value of MRI in screening of women with high genetic risk for breast cancer, and especially in BRCA1 mutation carriers. We showed that in the era of up-to-date MRI expertise and digital mammography the screening efficacy is improved. However, the additional value of mammography over MRI is little while at the same time BRCA carriers are more sensitive the risks of low dose radiation ...

  7. Correlating the extent of pulmonary contusion to vehicle crash parameters in near-side impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danelson, Kerry A; Chiles, Caroline; Thompson, Aaron B; Donadino, Katherine; Weaver, Ashley A; Stitzel, Joel D

    2011-01-01

    Pulmonary contusion (PC) is the most common injury following blunt thoracic trauma with an associated mortality of 10% to 20%. The purpose of this study is to determine how crash parameters correlate to the volume of pulmonary contusion. The Crash Injury Research Engineering and Network (CIREN) database was queried to extract data on all occupants sustaining PC in a near-side crash. The selected CIREN data included all completed cases from 2005 through 2010. Cases involving a roll-over or without a thorax CT uploaded to the database were excluded. After all cases had been examined the study had 64 occupants with varying volumes of PC. Specific crash characteristics compiled included change in velocity due to the impact, energy, occupant characteristics, side airbag deployment, and crush profile measurements. Crush metrics quantifying the area of the crush profile and the location of the crush relative to the occupant were calculated. The thoracic CT scans from these cases were downloaded and segmented to determine the percent volume of high attenuation lung and PC as compared to the total volume of the lung. The results of the general linear model analysis suggest that maximum crush was the best predictor of high attenuation lung and lung location best predicted PC. An analysis of NASS and CIREN demonstrated that crashes with PC tended to have crash parameters that indicated higher severity. These correlations can be used in the future to develop an injury criterion for PC using finite element metrics.

  8. A simulator-based analysis of engineering treatments for right-hook bicycle crashes at signalized intersections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Jennifer; Hurwitz, David S; Monsere, Christopher M; Fleskes, Kayla

    2017-07-01

    A right-hook crash is a crash between a right-turning motor vehicle and an adjacent through-moving bicycle. At signalized intersections, these crashes can occur during any portion of the green interval when conflicting bicycles and vehicles are moving concurrently. The objective of this research was to evaluate the effectiveness of four types of engineering countermeasures - regulatory signage, intersection pavement marking, smaller curb radius, and protected intersection design - at modifying driver behaviors that are known contributing factors in these crashes. This research focused on right-hook crashes that occur during the latter stage of the circular green indication at signalized intersections with a shared right-turn and through lane. Changes in driver performance in response to treatments were measured in a high-fidelity driving simulator. Twenty-eight participants each completed 22 right-turn maneuvers. A partially counterbalanced experimental design exposed drivers to critical scenarios, which had been determined in a previous experiment. For each turn, driver performance measures, including visual attention, crash avoidance, and potential crash severity, were collected. A total of 75 incidents (47 near-collisions and 28 collisions) were observed during the 616 right turns. All treatments had some positive effect on measured driver performance with respect to the right-turn vehicle conflicts. Further work is required to map the magnitude of these changes in driver performance to crash-based outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Pedestrian- and driver-related factors associated with the risk of causing collisions involving pedestrians in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez-Mejías, Eladio; Martínez-Ruiz, Virginia; Amezcua-Prieto, Carmen; Olmedo-Requena, Rocío; Luna-Del-Castillo, Juan de Dios; Lardelli-Claret, Pablo

    2016-07-01

    This study aimed to quantify the association between pedestrian- and driver-related factors and the risk of causing road crashes involving pedestrians in urban areas in Spain between 1993 and 2011. From the nationwide police-based registry of road crashes with victims in Spain, we analyzed all 63,205 pairs of pedestrians and drivers involved in crashes in urban areas in which only the pedestrian or only the driver was at fault. Logistic regression models were used to obtain adjusted odds ratios to assess the strength of association between each individual-related variable and the pedestrian's odds of being at fault for the crash (and conversely, the driver's odds of not being at fault). The subgroups of road users at high risk of causing a road crash with a pedestrian in urban areas were young and male pedestrians, pedestrians with psychophysical conditions or health problems, the youngest and the oldest drivers, and drivers with markers of high-risk behaviors (alcohol use, nonuse of safety devices, and driving without a valid license). These subgroups should be targeted by preventive strategies intended to decrease the rate of urban road crashes involving pedestrians in Spain.

  10. Road traffic crash circumstances and consequences among young unlicensed drivers: A Swedish cohort study on socioeconomic disparities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laflamme Lucie

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Young car drivers run a higher risk of road traffic crash and injury not only because of their lack of experience but also because of their young age and their greater propensity for adopting unsafe driving practices. Also, low family socioeconomic position increases the risk of crash and of severe crash in particular. Whether this holds true for young unlicensed drivers as well is not known. Increasing attention is being drawn to the prevalence and practice of unlicensed driving among young people as an important contributor to road traffic fatalities. Methods This is a population-based cohort study linking Swedish national register data for a cohort of 1 616 621 individuals born between 1977 and 1991. Crash circumstances for first-time road traffic crash (RTC were compared considering licensed and unlicensed drivers. The socioeconomic distribution of injury was assessed considering household socioeconomic position, social welfare benefits, and level of urbanicity of the living area. The main outcome measure is relative risk of RTC. Results RTCs involving unlicensed drivers were over-represented among male drivers, suspected impaired drivers, severe injuries, crashes occurring in higher speed limit areas, and in fair road conditions. Unlicensed drivers from families in a lower socioeconomic position showed increased relative risks for RTC in the range of 1.75 to 3.25. Those living in rural areas had an increased relative risk for a severe RTC of 3.29 (95% CI 2.47 - 4.39 compared to those living in metropolitan areas. Conclusions At the time of the crash, young unlicensed drivers display more risky driving practices than their licensed counterparts. Just as licensed drivers, unlicensed young people from low socioeconomic positions are over-represented in the most severe injury crashes. Whether the mechanisms lying behind those similarities compare between these groups remains to be determined.

  11. Simulations of Laboratory Astrophysics Experiments using the CRASH code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trantham, Matthew; Kuranz, Carolyn; Fein, Jeff; Wan, Willow; Young, Rachel; Keiter, Paul; Drake, R. Paul

    2015-11-01

    Computer simulations can assist in the design and analysis of laboratory astrophysics experiments. The Center for Radiative Shock Hydrodynamics (CRASH) at the University of Michigan developed a code that has been used to design and analyze high-energy-density experiments on OMEGA, NIF, and other large laser facilities. This Eulerian code uses block-adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) with implicit multigroup radiation transport, electron heat conduction and laser ray tracing. This poster will demonstrate some of the experiments the CRASH code has helped design or analyze including: Kelvin-Helmholtz, Rayleigh-Taylor, magnetized flows, jets, and laser-produced plasmas. This work is funded by the following grants: DEFC52-08NA28616, DE-NA0001840, and DE-NA0002032.

  12. Multivariate poisson-lognormal model for modeling related factors in crash frequency by severity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Tazhibi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: Traditionally, roadway safety analyses have used univariate distributions to model crash data for each level of severity separately. This paper uses the multivariate Poisson lognormal (MVPLN models to estimate the expected crash frequency by two levels of severity and then compares those estimates with the univariate Poisson-lognormal (UVPLN and the univariate Poisson (UVP models. Materials and Methods: The parameters estimation is done by Bayesian method for crash data at two levels of severity at the intersection of Isfahan city for 6 months. Results: The results showed that there was over-dispersion issue in data. The UVP model is not able to overcome this problem while the MVPLN model can account for over-dispersion. Also, the estimates of the extra Poisson variation parameters in the MVPLN model were smaller than the UVPLN model that causes improvement in the precision of the MNPLN model. Hence, the MVPLN model is better fitted to the data set. Also, results showed effect of the total Average annual daily traffic (AADT on the property damage only crash was significant in the all of models but effect of the total left turn AADT on the injuries and fatalities crash was significant just in the UVP model. Hence, holding all other factors fixed more property damage only crashes were expected on more the total AADT. For example, under MVPLN model an increase of 1000 vehicles in (average the total AADT was predicted to result in 31% more property damage only crash. Conclusion: Hence, reduction of total AADT was predicted to be highly cost-effective, in terms of the crash cost reductions over the long run.

  13. Homogenization of vehicle fleet frontal crash pulses from 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locey, Caitlin M; Garcia-Espana, J Felipe; Toh, Akira; Belwadi, Aditya; Arbogast, Kristy B; Maltese, Matthew R

    2012-01-01

    Full-scale vehicle crash tests are performed globally to assess vehicle structure and restraint system performance. The crash pulse, captured by accelerometers mounted within the occupant compartment, measures the motion of the vehicle during the impact event. From an occupant's perspective, the crash pulse is the inertial event to which the vehicle's restraint systems must respond in order to mitigate the forces and accelerations that act on a passenger, and thus reduce injury risk. The objective of this study was to quantify the characteristics of crash pulses for different vehicle types in the contemporary North American fleet, and delineate current trends in crash pulse evolution. NHTSA and Transport Canada crash test databases were queried for full-frontal rigid barrier crash tests of passenger vehicles model year 2000-2010 with impact angle equaling zero degrees. Acceleration-time histories were analyzed for all accelerometers attached to the vehicle structure within the occupant compartment. Custom software calculated the following crash pulse characteristics (CPCs): peak deceleration, time of peak deceleration, onset rate, pulse duration, and change in velocity. Vehicle body types were classified by adapting the Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI) methodology, and vehicles were assigned a generation start year in place of model year in order to more accurately represent structural change over time. 1094 vehicle crash tests with 2795 individual occupant compartment-mounted accelerometers were analyzed. We found greater peak decelerations and and shorter pulse durations across multiple vehicle types in newer model years as compared to older. For midsize passenger cars, large passenger cars, and large SUVs in 56 km/h rigid barrier tests, maximum deceleration increased by 0.40, 0.96, and 1.57 g/year respectively, and pulse duration decreased by 0.74, 1.87, and 2.51 ms/year. We also found that the crash pulse characteristics are becoming more homogeneous in the

  14. Crash analysis of lower extremity injuries in children restrained in forward-facing car seats during front and rear impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Tellen D; Kaufman, Robert; Schiff, Melissa; Mock, Charles; Quan, Linda

    2006-09-01

    The mechanism, crash characteristics, and spectrum of lower extremity injuries in children restrained in forward-facing car seats during front and rear impacts have not been described. We identified in two databases children who sustained lower extremity injuries while restrained in forward-facing car seats. To identify the mechanism, we analyzed crash reconstructions from three frontal-impact cases from the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network. To further describe the crash and injury characteristics we evaluated children between 1 and 4 years of age with lower extremity injuries from front or rear impacts in the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) Crashworthiness Data System (CDS) database. Crash reconstruction data demonstrated that the likely mechanism of lower extremity injury was contact between the legs and the front seatbacks. In the CDS database, we identified 15 children with lower extremity injuries in a forward-facing child seat, usually (13 out of 15) placed in the rear seat, incurred in frontal impacts (11 out of 15). Several (5 out of 15) children were in unbelted or improperly secured forward-facing car seats. Injury Severity Scores varied widely (5-50). Children in forward-facing car seats involved in severe front or rear crashes may incur a range of lower extremity injury from impact with the car interior component in front of them. Crash scene photography can provide useful information about anatomic sites at risk for injury and alert emergency department providers to possible subtle injury.

  15. Vehicular crash data used to rank intersections by injury crash frequency and severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yi; Li, Zongzhi; Liu, Jingxian; Patel, Harshingar

    2016-09-01

    This article contains data on research conducted in "A double standard model for allocating limited emergency medical service vehicle resources ensuring service reliability" (Liu et al., 2016) [1]. The crash counts were sorted out from comprehensive crash records of over one thousand major signalized intersections in the city of Chicago from 2004 to 2010. For each intersection, vehicular crashes were counted by crash severity levels, including fatal, injury Types A, B, and C for major, moderate, and minor injury levels, property damage only (PDO), and unknown. The crash data was further used to rank intersections by equivalent injury crash frequency. The top 200 intersections with the highest number of crash occurrences identified based on crash frequency- and severity-based scenarios are shared in this brief. The provided data would be a valuable source for research in urban traffic safety analysis and could also be utilized to examine the effectiveness of traffic safety improvement planning and programming, intersection design enhancement, incident and emergency management, and law enforcement strategies.

  16. Vehicular crash data used to rank intersections by injury crash frequency and severity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Liu

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This article contains data on research conducted in “A double standard model for allocating limited emergency medical service vehicle resources ensuring service reliability” (Liu et al., 2016 [1]. The crash counts were sorted out from comprehensive crash records of over one thousand major signalized intersections in the city of Chicago from 2004 to 2010. For each intersection, vehicular crashes were counted by crash severity levels, including fatal, injury Types A, B, and C for major, moderate, and minor injury levels, property damage only (PDO, and unknown. The crash data was further used to rank intersections by equivalent injury crash frequency. The top 200 intersections with the highest number of crash occurrences identified based on crash frequency- and severity-based scenarios are shared in this brief. The provided data would be a valuable source for research in urban traffic safety analysis and could also be utilized to examine the effectiveness of traffic safety improvement planning and programming, intersection design enhancement, incident and emergency management, and law enforcement strategies.

  17. Epidemiology of Child Motor Vehicle Crash Injuries and Fatalities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbogast, Kristy B.; Durbin, Dennis R.

    Although children represent only 10-15 % of the overall traffic fatality burden in the United States, motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) remain the leading cause of death and disability for children and young adults; and, close to half of all unintentional injury deaths to children and adolescents (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System [CDC NCIPC WISQARS] 2010). Moreover, their exposure to motor vehicle risk is significant because they travel by motor vehicles nearly as much as adults. Prevention of the fatalities, injuries and disability associated with MVC must be a priority for ensuring our children's overall health.

  18. Diagnostic analysis of the logistic model for pedestrian injury severity in traffic crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sze, N N; Wong, S C

    2007-11-01

    This study attempts to evaluate the injury risk of pedestrian casualties in traffic crashes and to explore the factors that contribute to mortality and severe injury, using the comprehensive historical crash record that is maintained by the Hong Kong Transport Department. The injury, demographic, crash, environmental, geometric, and traffic characteristics of 73,746 pedestrian casualties that were involved in traffic crashes from 1991 to 2004 are considered. Binary logistic regression is used to determine the associations between the probability of fatality and severe injury and all contributory factors. A consideration of the influence of implicit attributes on the trend of pedestrian injury risk, temporal confounding, and interaction effects is progressively incorporated into the predictive model. To verify the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and logistic regression diagnostics are conducted. It is revealed that there is a decreasing trend in pedestrian injury risk, controlling for the influences of demographic, road environment, and other risk factors. In addition, the influences of pedestrian behavior, traffic congestion, and junction type on pedestrian injury risk are subject to temporal variation.

  19. A Study of Transport Airplane Crash-Resistant Fuel Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lisa (Technical Monitor); Robertson, S. H.; Johnson, N. B.; Hall, D. S.; Rimson, I. J.

    2002-01-01

    This report presents the results of a study, funded by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), of transport airplane crash-resistant fuel system (CRFS). The report covers the historical studies related to aircraft crash fires and fuel containment concepts undertaken by the FAA, NASA, and the U.S. Army, which ultimately led to the current state of the art in CRFS technology. It describes the basic research, testing, field investigations and production efforts which have led to the highly successful military CRFS, which has saved many lives and reduced costs of accidents. Current CRFS technology used in transport category airplanes is defined and compared to the available state-of-the-art technology. The report provides information to the FAA and other government organizations which can help them plan their efforts to improve the state of crash fire protection in the transport airplane fleet. The report provides guidance to designers looking for information about CRFS design problems, analysis tools to use for product improvement, and a summary of current and proposed regulations for transport category airplane fuel systems.

  20. The effectiveness of lane departure warning systems-A reduction in real-world passenger car injury crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sternlund, Simon; Strandroth, Johan; Rizzi, Matteo; Lie, Anders; Tingvall, Claes

    2017-02-17

    The objective of this study was to estimate the safety benefits of in vehicle lane departure warning (LDW) and lane keeping aid (LKA) systems in reducing relevant real-world passenger car injury crashes. The study used an induced exposure method, where LDW/LKA-sensitive and nonsensitive crashes were compared for Volvo passenger cars equipped with and without LDW/LKA systems. These crashes were matched by car make, model, model year, and technical equipment; that is, low-speed autonomous emergency braking (AEB) called City Safety (CS). The data were extracted from the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition database (STRADA) and consisted of 1,853 driver injury crashes that involved 146 LDW-equipped cars, 11 LKA-equipped cars, and 1,696 cars without LDW/LKA systems. The analysis showed a positive effect of the LDW/LKA systems in reducing lane departure crashes. The LDW/LKA systems were estimated to reduce head-on and single-vehicle injury crashes on Swedish roads with speed limits between 70 and 120 km/h and with dry or wet road surfaces (i.e., not covered by ice or snow) by 53% with a lower limit of 11% (95% confidence interval [CI]). This reduction corresponded to a reduction of 30% with a lower limit of 6% (95% CI) for all head-on and single-vehicle driver injury crashes (including all speed limits and all road surface conditions). LDW/LKA systems were estimated to lower the driver injury risk in crash types that the systems are designed to prevent; that is, head-on and single-vehicle crashes. Though these are important findings, they were based on a small data set. Therefore, further research is desirable to evaluate the effectiveness of LDW/LKA systems under real-world conditions and to differentiate the effectiveness between technical solutions (i.e., LDW and LKA) proposed by different manufacturers.

  1. Correlation Between Euro NCAP Pedestrian Test Results and Injury Severity in Injury Crashes with Pedestrians and Bicyclists in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strandroth, Johan; Sternlund, Simon; Lie, Anders; Tingvall, Claes; Rizzi, Matteo; Kullgren, Anders; Ohlin, Maria; Fredriksson, Rikard

    2014-11-01

    Pedestrians and bicyclists account for a significant share of deaths and serious injuries in the road transport system. The protection of pedestrians in car-to-pedestrian crashes has therefore been addressed by friendlier car fronts and since 1997, the European New Car Assessment Program (Euro NCAP) has assessed the level of protection for most car models available in Europe. In the current study, Euro NCAP pedestrian scoring was compared with real-life injury outcomes in car-to-pedestrian and car-tobicyclist crashes occurring in Sweden. Approximately 1200 injured pedestrians and 2000 injured bicyclists were included in the study. Groups of cars with low, medium and high pedestrian scores were compared with respect to pedestrian injury severity on the Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS)-level and risk of permanent medical impairment (RPMI). Significant injury reductions to both pedestrians and bicyclists were found between low and high performing cars. For pedestrians, the reduction of MAIS2+, MAIS3+, RPMI1+ and RPMI10+ ranged from 20-56% and was significant on all levels except for MAIS3+ injuries. Pedestrian head injuries had the highest reduction, 80-90% depending on level of medical impairment. For bicyclist, an injury reduction was only observed between medium and high performing cars. Significant injury reductions were found for all body regions. It was also found that cars fitted with autonomous emergency braking including pedestrian detection might have a 60-70% lower crash involvement than expected. Based on these results, it was recommended that pedestrian protection are implemented on a global scale to provide protection for vulnerable road users worldwide.

  2. Gasoline prices and their relationship to drunk-driving crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi, Guangqing; Zhou, Xuan; McClure, Timothy E; Gilbert, Paul A; Cosby, Arthur G; Zhang, Li; Robertson, Angela A; Levinson, David

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between changing gasoline prices and drunk-driving crashes. Specifically, we examine the effects of gasoline prices on drunk-driving crashes in Mississippi by several crash types and demographic groups at the monthly level from 2004 to 2008, a period experiencing great fluctuation in gasoline prices. An exploratory visualization by graphs shows that higher gasoline prices are generally associated with fewer drunk-driving crashes. Higher gasoline prices depress drunk-driving crashes among young and adult drivers, among male and female drivers, and among white and black drivers. Results from negative binomial regression models show that when gas prices are higher, there are fewer drunk-driving crashes, particularly among property-damage-only crashes. When alcohol consumption levels are higher, there are more drunk-driving crashes, particularly fatal and injury crashes. The effects of gasoline prices and alcohol consumption are stronger on drunk-driving crashes than on all crashes. The findings do not vary much across different demographic groups. Overall, gasoline prices have greater effects on less severe crashes and alcohol consumption has greater effects on more severe crashes.

  3. Car crash fatalities associated with fire in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viklund, Åsa; Björnstig, Johanna; Larsson, Magnus; Björnstig, Ulf

    2013-01-01

    To study the epidemiology and causes of death in fatal car crashes on Swedish roads in which the victim's vehicle caught fire. The data set is from the Swedish Transport Administrations in-depth studies of fatal crashes 1998-2008. Autopsies from all cases provided data on injuries, toxicological analyses, and cause of death. In total, 181 people died in 133 burning cars, accounting for 5 percent of all deaths in passenger cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and minibuses during 1998 to 2008. The cause of death for a third of the victims was fire related, as burns and/or smoke inhalation injuries, with no fatal trauma injuries. Twenty-five of these 55 deaths were persons 19 years or younger and included 15 of 18 rear seat deaths. Over half of the 181 deaths were in vehicles that had collided with another vehicle and, of these cases, half were killed in collisions with heavy vehicles. The percentage of drivers with illegal blood alcohol concentrations (27%) and suicides (5.5%) were not higher than in other fatal crashes on Swedish roads. The ignition point of the fire was indicated in only half of the cases and, of those, half started in the engine compartment and one fourth started around the fuel tank or lines. Car fires are a deadly postcrash problem. Reducing this risk would be primarily a responsibility for the automotive industry. A multifactor approach could be considered as follows: risk-reducing design, insulation, reduced flammability in motor compartment fluids and plastics, and automatic fire extinguishing equipment. Inspiration could be found in how, for example, the auto racing and aviation industries handle this problem.

  4. INVESTIGATION OF INFLUENTIAL FACTORS FOR BICYCLE CRASHES USING A SPATIOTEMPORAL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Gill

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Despite the numerous potential advantages of indulging in bicycling, such as elevation of health and environment along with mitigation of congestion, the cyclists are a vulnerable group of commuters which is exposed to safety risks. This study aims to investigate the explanatory variables at transportation planning level which have a significant impact on the bicycle crashes. To account for the serial changes around the built environment, the linear time trend as well as time-varying coefficients are utilized for the covariates. These model modifications help account for the variations in the environment which may escape the incorporated variables due to lack of robustness in data. Also, to incorporate the interaction of roadway, demographic, and socioeconomic features within a Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ, with the bicycle crashes of that area, a spatial correlation is integrated. This spatial correlation accounts for the spatially structured random effects which capture the unobserved heterogeneity and add towards building more comprehensive model with relatively precise estimates. Two different age groups, the student population in the TAZs, the presence of arterial roads and bike lanes, were observed to be statistically significant variables related with bicycle crashes. These observations will guide the transportation planning organizations which focus on the entity of TAZ while developing policies. The results of the current study establish a quantifies relationship between the significant factors and the crash count which will enable the planners to choose the most cost-efficient, yet most productive, factors which needs to be addressed for mitigation of crashes.

  5. The association between opioid analgesics and unsafe driving actions preceding fatal crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubois, Sacha; Bédard, Michel; Weaver, Bruce

    2010-01-01

    Currently, most epidemiological research into the impact of opioid analgesics on road safety has focused on the association between opioid use and traffic crash occurrence. Yet, the role of opioid analgesics on crash responsibility is still not properly understood. Therefore, we examined the impact of opioid analgesics on drivers (all had a confirmed BAC=0) involved in fatal crashes (1993-2006) using a case-control design based on data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System. Cases had one or more crash-related unsafe driving actions (UDA) recorded; controls had none. We calculated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of any UDA by medication exposure after controlling for age, sex, other medications, and driving record. Compared to drivers who tested negative for opioid analgesics, female drivers who tested positive demonstrated increased odds of performing an UDA from ages 25 (OR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.05; 1.74) to 55 (OR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.07; 1.58). For male drivers this was true from ages 25 (OR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.32; 2.09) to 65 (OR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.17; 1.67). The detection of opioid analgesics was not associated with greater risk of an UDA for older drivers. Research is necessary to examine why these age differences exist, and if possible, to ensure that opioid analgesics do not contribute to crashes.

  6. Information note about the protection of nuclear facilities against aircraft crashes; Note d'information sur la protection des installations nucleaires contre les chutes d'avions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    The protection of nuclear facilities against external risks (earthquakes, floods, fires etc..) is an aspect of safety taken into consideration by the French authority of nuclear safety (ASN). Concerning the aircraft crashes, the fundamental safety rules make three categories of aircraft: the small civil aircraft (weight < 5.7 t), the military aircraft, and the commercial aircraft (w > 5.7 t). Nuclear facilities are designed to resist against crashes of aircraft from the first category only, because the probability of the accidental crash of a big aircraft are extremely low. This document comprises an information note about the protection of nuclear facilities against aircraft crashes, a dossier about the safety of nuclear facilities with respect to external risks in general (natural disasters and aircraft crashes), and an article about the protection of nuclear power plants against aircraft crashes (design, safety measures, regulation, surveillance, experience feedback). (J.S.)

  7. Crash involvement during the different phases of the New Zealand Graduated Driver Licensing System (GDLS)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lewis Evans, B.

    2010-01-01

    Introduction: The New Zealand Graduated Driver Licensing System (GDLS) is designed to allow novice drivers to gain driving experience under conditions of reduced risk. Method: To examine the effectiveness of the GDLS, an analysis of how the crash involvement of novice drivers changes as drivers move

  8. Crash involvement during the different phases of the New Zealand Graduated Driver Licensing System (GDLS)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lewis Evans, B.

    2010-01-01

    Introduction: The New Zealand Graduated Driver Licensing System (GDLS) is designed to allow novice drivers to gain driving experience under conditions of reduced risk. Method: To examine the effectiveness of the GDLS, an analysis of how the crash involvement of novice drivers changes as drivers move

  9. Frequency of Injuries in Multiple Impact Crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Digges, K.; Bahouth, G.

    2003-01-01

    NASS 1998–2000 was queried to determine the frequency of serious injuries in multiple impact crashes and the distribution of injuries by crash sequence. The data set included all passenger cars and light trucks in NASS/CDS. The results showed that 42% of the MAIS 3+ injuries were in crashes that involved more than one harmful event. Approximately 24% of the MAIS 3+ injuries involved two harmful events, and 18% involved 3 or more harmful events. For multiple crashes with serious injuries, the most frequent initial impact direction was frontal (50%) followed by side (44.9%). The most frequent second impact was side (48.4%) followed by frontal (27.6%). The most harmful sequences were side-side (27.7%), front-side (15.8%) and front-front (14.9). The data suggests the need for further investigation and classification complex multiple impact crashes to aid in the in the design of safety systems. PMID:12941239

  10. Exploring Injury Panorama, Consequences, and Recovery among Bus Crash Survivors: A Mixed-Methods Research Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doohan, Isabelle; Björnstig, Ulf; Östlund, Ulrika; Saveman, Britt-Inger

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study was to explore physical and mental consequences and injury mechanisms among bus crash survivors to identify aspects that influence recovery. The study participants were the total population of survivors (N=56) from a bus crash in Sweden. The study had a mixed-methods design that provided quantitative and qualitative data on injuries, mental well-being, and experiences. Results from descriptive statistics and qualitative thematic analysis were interpreted and integrated in a mixed-methods analysis. Among the survivors, 11 passengers (20%) sustained moderate to severe injuries, and the remaining 45 (80%) had minor or no physical injuries. Two-thirds of the survivors screened for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) risk were assessed, during the period of one to three months after the bus crash, as not being at-risk, and the remaining one-third were at-risk. The thematic analysis resulted in themes covering the consequences and varying aspects that affected the survivors' recoveries. The integrated findings are in the form of four "core cases" of survivors who represent a combination of characteristics: injury severity, mental well-being, social context, and other aspects hindering and facilitating recovery. Core case Avery represents a survivor who had minor or no injuries and who demonstrated a successful mental recovery. Core case Blair represents a survivor with moderate to severe injuries who experienced a successful mental recovery. Core case Casey represents a survivor who sustained minor injuries or no injuries in the crash but who was at-risk of developing PTSD. Core case Daryl represents a survivor who was at-risk of developing PTSD and who also sustained moderate to severe injuries in the crash. The present study provides a multi-faceted understanding of mass-casualty incident (MCI) survivors (ie, having minor injuries does not always correspond to minimal risk for PTSD and moderate to severe injuries do not always correspond to

  11. Opioids No Better Than Ibuprofen for Pain After Car Crash

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Car Crash: Study But more patients prescribed powerful painkillers were still taking them 6 weeks later To ... persistent pain after a car crash, prescription opioid painkillers such as oxycodone (Oxycontin) are no more effective ...

  12. Financial Services Advertising before and after the Crash of 1987.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everett, Stephen E.

    1988-01-01

    Examines institutional changes in advertising before and after the stock market "crash" of 1987 as represented in the "Wall Street Journal." Finds that financial institutions increased the frequency and size of ads after the crash. (RS)

  13. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance--United States, 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Danice K.; Kann, Laura; Kinchen, Steve; Ross, James; Hawkins, Joseph; Harris, William A.; Lowry, Richard; McManus, Tim; Chyen, David; Shanklin, Shari; Lim, Connie; Grunbaum, Jo Anne; Wechsler, Howell

    2006-01-01

    In the United States, 71% of all deaths among persons aged 10-24 years result from 4 causes: motor vehicle crashes, other unintentional injuries, homicide, and suicide. Results from the 2005 national Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) indicated that during the 30 days preceding the survey, many high school students engaged in behaviors that…

  14. Pre-crash scenarios at road junctions: A clustering method for car crash data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nitsche, Philippe; Thomas, Pete; Stuetz, Rainer; Welsh, Ruth

    2017-08-22

    Given the recent advancements in autonomous driving functions, one of the main challenges is safe and efficient operation in complex traffic situations such as road junctions. There is a need for comprehensive testing, either in virtual simulation environments or on real-world test tracks. This paper presents a novel data analysis method including the preparation, analysis and visualization of car crash data, to identify the critical pre-crash scenarios at T- and four-legged junctions as a basis for testing the safety of automated driving systems. The presented method employs k-medoids to cluster historical junction crash data into distinct partitions and then applies the association rules algorithm to each cluster to specify the driving scenarios in more detail. The dataset used consists of 1056 junction crashes in the UK, which were exported from the in-depth "On-the-Spot" database. The study resulted in thirteen crash clusters for T-junctions, and six crash clusters for crossroads. Association rules revealed common crash characteristics, which were the basis for the scenario descriptions. The results support existing findings on road junction accidents and provide benchmark situations for safety performance tests in order to reduce the possible number parameter combinations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. A study to maximize the crash energy absorption efficiency within the limits of crash space

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bae Young; Jeong, Choong Min; Suh, Myung Won [Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Si Woo [Korea Automobile Testing and Research Institute, Hwaseong (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-04-15

    The design of an engine room is important to protect the passenger from a crash impact by improving the absorption of the crash impact energy. The side member in the engine room absorbs most of the crash impact energy when the vehicle experiences a frontal crash. The side member is of two types: hat and 'U.' Analysis of the extent of energy absorption and the mechanism of the side member are necessary through a collapse mode in various load conditions. In this study, the design of experiments was used for evaluating the characteristics of the absorption of crash energy by side members through design variables. First, crash analysis was performed by experiment number extracted from the design of the experiment. Then, using the results of crash analysis, multiple regressions were conducted and sensitivity analysis performed for each design variable. Finally, the optimum design was developed for maximizing the absorption energy per unit weight considering various boundary conditions. In the present study, as a basic step for modeling the fatigue behavior of an extruded Al alloy cylinder, the fatigue crack growth data of the alloy was collected in two orientations. Microstructural analysis revealed that the material had recrystallized grains and clusters of constituent particles aligned in the direction of extrusion. Fatigue life of the samples revealed a shorter fatigue life representing a higher fatigue crack growth rate in the transverse direction.

  16. Analysis of bubbles and crashes in the TRY/USD, TRY/EUR, TRY/JPY and TRY/CHF exchange rate within the scope of econophysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deviren, Bayram; Kocakaplan, Yusuf; Keskin, Mustafa; Balcılar, Mehmet; Özdemir, Zeynel Abidin; Ersoy, Ersan

    2014-09-01

    In this study, we analyze the Turkish Lira/US Dollar (TRY/USD), Turkish Lira/Euro (TRY/EUR), Turkish Lira/Japanese Yen (TRY/JPY) and Turkish Lira/Swiss Franc (TRY/CHF) exchange rates in the global financial crisis period to detect the bubbles and crashes in the TRY by using a mathematical methodology developed by Watanabe et al. (2007). The methodology defines the bubbles and crashes in financial market price fluctuations by considering an exponential fitting of the associated data. This methodology is applied to detect the bubbles and crashes in the TRY/USD, TRY/EUR, TRY/JPY and TRY/CHF exchange rates from January, 1, 2005 to December, 20, 2013. In this mathematical methodology, the whole period of bubbles and crashes can be determined purely from past data, and the start of bubbles and crashes can be identified even before its bursts. In this way, the periods of bubbles and crashes in the TRY/USD, TRY/EUR, TRY/JPY and TRY/CHF are determined, and the beginning and end points of these periods are detected. The results show that the crashes in the TRY/CHF exchange rate are commonly finished earlier than in the other exchange rates; hence it is probable that the crashes in the other exchange rates would be finished soon when the crashes in the TRY/CHF exchange rate ended. We also find that the periods of crashes in the TRY/EUR exchange rate take longer time than in the other exchange rates. This information can be used in risk management and/or speculative gain. The crashes' periods in the TRY/EUR and TRY/USD exchange rates are observed to be relatively longer than in the other exchange rates.

  17. Investigation of dynamics of ELM crashes and their mitigation techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pankin, Alexei Y. [Tech-X Corporation, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-08-14

    The accurate prediction of H-mode pedestal dynamics is critical for planning experiments in existing tokamaks and in the design of future tokamaks such as ITER and DEMO. The main objective of the proposed research is to advance the understanding of the physics of H-mode pedestal. Through advances in coupled kinetic-MHD simulations, a new model for H-mode pedestal and ELM crashes as well as an improved model for the bootstrap current will be developed. ELMmitigation techniques will also be investigated. The proposed research will help design efficient confinement scenarios and reduce transient heat loads on the divertor and plasma facing components. During the last two years, the principal investigator (PI) of this proposal actively participated in physics studies related to the DOE Joint Research Targets. These studies include the modeling of divertor heat load in the DIII-D, Alcator C-Mod, and NSTX tokamaks in 2010, and the modeling of H-mode pedestal structure in the DIII-D tokamak in 2011. It is proposed that this close collaboration with experimentalists from major US tokamaks continue during the next funding period. Verification and validation will be a strong component of the proposed research. During the course of the project, advances will be made in the following areas; Dynamics of the H-mode pedestal buildup and recovery after ELM crashes – The effects of neutral fueling, particle and thermal pinches will be explored; Dynamics of ELM crashes in realistic tokamak geometries – Heat loads associated with ELM crashes will be validated against experimental measurements. An improved model for ELM crashes will be developed; ELM mitigation – The effect of resonant magnetic perturbations on ELMs stability and their evolution will be investigated; Development of a new bootstrap current model – A reduced model for will be developed through careful verification of existing models for bootstrap current against first-principle kinetic neoclassical simulations

  18. High Blood Pressure, Afib and Your Risk of Stroke

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... atrial fibrillation has more than five times the risk of stroke.” “Because high blood pressure is so frequent, affecting tens of millions of ... is a more potent risk factor.” The two risk factors are also related to each other: High blood pressure is a risk factor for atrial fibrillation. Middle- ...

  19. High-Risk Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhojwani, Deepa; Howard, Scott C.; Pui, Ching-Hon

    2009-01-01

    Although most children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) are cured, certain subsets have a high risk of relapse. Relapse risk can be predicted by early response to therapy, clinical and pharmacogenetic features of the host, and genetic characteristics of leukemic cells. Though early treatment response can be assessed by the peripheral blast cell count after 1 week of single-agent glucocorticoid treatment or percent of bone marrow blasts by morphology after 1 or 2 weeks of multiagent induction treatment, determination of minimal residual disease by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or flow cytometry after 2 to 6 weeks of induction is the most precise and useful measure. Augmented therapy has improved outcome for the poor responders to initial treatment. Infants with mixed-lineage leukemia (MLL)–rearranged ALL comprise a very poor-risk group wherein further intensification of chemotherapy causes significant toxicity. Hybrid protocols incorporating drugs effective for acute myeloid leukemia could improve survival, a strategy being tested in international trials. Studies on the biology of MLL-induced leukemogenesis have prompted the development of novel targeted agents, currently under evaluation in clinical trials. Short-term outcomes of patients with Philadelphia chromosome (Ph)–positive ALL have improved significantly by adding tyrosine kinase inhibitors to standard chemotherapy regimens. New agents and methods to overcome resistance are under investigation, and allogeneic stem cell transplantation is recommended for certain subsets of patients, for example those with Ph+ and T-cell ALL with poor early response. Genome-wide interrogation of leukemic cell genetic abnormalities and germline genetic variations promise to identify new molecular targets for therapy. PMID:19778845

  20. High resolution fire risk mapping in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiorucci, Paolo; Biondi, Guido; Campo, Lorenzo; D'Andrea, Mirko

    2014-05-01

    The high topographic and vegetation heterogeneity makes Italy vulnerable to forest fires both in the summer and in winter. In particular, northern regions are predominantly characterized by a winter fire regime, mainly due to frequent extremely dry winds from the north, while southern and central regions and the large islands are characterized by a severe summer fire regime, because of the higher temperatures and prolonged lack of precipitation. The threat of wildfires in Italy is not confined to wooded areas as they extend to agricultural areas and urban-forest interface areas. The agricultural and rural areas, in the last century, have been gradually abandoned, especially in areas with complex topography. Many of these areas were subject to reforestation, leading to the spread of pioneer species mainly represented by Mediterranean conifer, which are highly vulnerable to fire. Because of the frequent spread of fire, these areas are limited to the early successional stages, consisting mainly of shrub vegetation; its survival in the competition with the climax species being ensured by the spread of fire itself. Due to the frequency of fire ignition — almost entirely man caused — the time between fires on the same area is at least an order of magnitude less than the time that would allow the establishment of forest climax species far less vulnerable to fire. In view of the limited availability of fire risk management resources, most of which are used in the management of national and regional air services, it is necessary to precisely identify the areas most vulnerable to fire risk. The few resources available can thus be used on a yearly basis to mitigate problems in the areas at highest risk by defining a program of forest management interventions, which is expected to make a significant contribution to the problem in a few years' time. The goal of such detailed planning is to dramatically reduce the costs associated with water bombers fleet management and fire

  1. Development and validation of a generic finite element vehicle buck model for the analysis of driver rib fractures in real life nearside oblique frontal crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iraeus, Johan; Lindquist, Mats

    2016-10-01

    Frontal crashes still account for approximately half of all fatalities in passenger cars, despite several decades of crash-related research. For serious injuries in this crash mode, several authors have listed the thorax as the most important. Computer simulation provides an effective tool to study crashes and evaluate injury mechanisms, and using stochastic input data, whole populations of crashes can be studied. The aim of this study was to develop a generic buck model and to validate this model on a population of real-life frontal crashes in terms of the risk of rib fracture. The study was conducted in four phases. In the first phase, real-life validation data were derived by analyzing NASS/CDS data to find the relationship between injury risk and crash parameters. In addition, available statistical distributions for the parameters were collected. In the second phase, a generic parameterized finite element (FE) model of a vehicle interior was developed based on laser scans from the A2MAC1 database. In the third phase, model parameters that could not be found in the literature were estimated using reverse engineering based on NCAP tests. Finally, in the fourth phase, the stochastic FE model was used to simulate a population of real-life crashes, and the result was compared to the validation data from phase one. The stochastic FE simulation model overestimates the risk of rib fracture, more for young occupants and less for senior occupants. However, if the effect of underestimation of rib fractures in the NASS/CDS material is accounted for using statistical simulations, the risk of rib fracture based on the stochastic FE model matches the risk based on the NASS/CDS data for senior occupants. The current version of the stochastic model can be used to evaluate new safety measures using a population of frontal crashes for senior occupants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. 49 CFR 563.10 - Crash test performance and survivability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... TRAFFIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EVENT DATA RECORDERS § 563.10 Crash test... 49 Transportation 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Crash test performance and survivability. 563.10... CFR 571.208, Occupant crash protection, must comply with the requirements in subpart (c) of...

  3. 14 CFR 29.952 - Fuel system crash resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fuel system crash resistance. 29.952... crash resistance. Unless other means acceptable to the Administrator are employed to minimize the hazard...) Separation of fuel and ignition sources. To provide maximum crash resistance, fuel must be located as far...

  4. 14 CFR 27.952 - Fuel system crash resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fuel system crash resistance. 27.952... crash resistance. Unless other means acceptable to the Administrator are employed to minimize the hazard...) Separation of fuel and ignition sources. To provide maximum crash resistance, fuel must be located as far...

  5. Simulation of an offset crash for tibia index evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mugnai, A.; Burke, G.

    2000-01-01

    In 1996, the European Community released new regulations relating to frontal impact vehicle crash. One of the tests, the European offset crash, consists of crashing the car on a deformable barrier at 56 km/h with 40% of the car impacting on the barrier. The regulations require the dummy injury param

  6. Development of a speeding-related crash typology.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Council, F.M. Srinivasan, R. Masten, S. Carter, C. & Reurings, M.

    2010-01-01

    The Highway Safety Information System has released a the summary of a report that examined recent crash data through the development of a speeding-related crash typology, which is designed to help define the crash, vehicle, and driver characteristics that seem to result in a higher probability of sp

  7. Adaptive Seat Energy Absorbers for Enhanced Crash Safety: Technology Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    ARL-TR-7743 ● AUG 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Adaptive Seat Energy Absorbers for Enhanced Crash Safety: Technology...AUG 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Adaptive Seat Energy Absorbers for Enhanced Crash Safety: Technology Demonstration by Muthuvel...COVERED (From - To) 10 January 2012–29 February 2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Adaptive Seat Energy Absorbers for Enhanced Crash Safety: Technology

  8. Real-time assessment of fog-related crashes using airport weather data: a feasibility analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Mohamed M; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung; Yu, Rongjie

    2014-11-01

    The effect of reduction of visibility on crash occurrence has recently been a major concern. Although visibility detection systems can help to mitigate the increased hazard of limited-visibility, such systems are not widely implemented and many locations with no systems are experiencing considerable number of fatal crashes due to reduction in visibility caused by fog and inclement weather. On the other hand, airports' weather stations continuously monitor all climate parameters in real-time, and the gathered data may be utilized to mitigate the increased risk for the adjacent roadways. This study aims to examine the viability of using airport weather information in real-time road crash risk assessment in locations with recurrent fog problems. Bayesian logistic regression was utilized to link six years (2005-2010) of historical crash data to real-time weather information collected from eight airports in the State of Florida, roadway characteristics and aggregate traffic parameters. The results from this research indicate that real-time weather data collected from adjacent airports are good predictors to assess increased risk on highways.

  9. Prescription of the High Risk Narcotics and Trading or Illicit Purchasing of High Risk Narcotics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta-Elena Buzatu

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The present essay will analyze the offence of prescribing high risk narcotics and trading or illicit purchasing of high risk narcotics, as it was regulated - together with other offences - by Law no 143 of July 26, 2000 on preventing and fighting against the traffic and illicit consumption of narcotics. The same law defines the meaning of such a phrase “substances which are under national control” by mentioning the fact that they are the narcotics and their precursors listed in Annexes I-IV of the law. The analysis of the offence of prescribing the high risk narcotics and trading or illicit purchasing of high risk narcotics is following the already known structure mentioned in the doctrine and which consists of: object and subjects of the offence, its constituent content: the objective side with its material element, the immediate consequence and causality connections; the subjective side of the offence, as well as forms and modalities of these offences, and the applicable sanctions, of course.

  10. Challenging Propofol Sedation in Gastrointestinal Endoscopy: High Risk Patients and High Risk Procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Redondo-Cerezo

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Sedation is increasingly becoming a must for most endoscopic procedures. Non-anesthesiologist administration of propofol is the standard of practice in many European countries. Nevertheless, despite anesthesiology societies concerns about sedation guided by endoscopist, practitioners find some limits to propofol administration, related to high risk patients or high risk and complex procedures, which can be long lasting and technically challenging. The main patient related risk factors for sedation are elderly patients, obesity, ASA≥3 patients, individuals with craniofacial abnormalities or with pharyngolaringeal tumors, patients with an acute gastrointestinal bleeding, under pain medications, sedatives, antidepressants, or who consume significant amounts of alcohol or drugs. Procedure related risk factors have more to do with the duration and complexity of the procedure than with other factors, in which considering a general anesthesia allows the endoscopist to concentrate on a difficult task. Published papers addressing the most challenging sedation groups in endoscopy are exploring and even trespassing previously assumed frontiers, and new scenarios are opening to the endoscopist, increasing his/her autonomy, reducing costs and giving patients levels of comfort previously unknown. In this review we analyse each risk group determining the ones in which a sedation protocol could be widely applied, and other in which the published evidence does not guarantee a safe endoscopist guided propofol sedation.

  11. The effects of mandatory seatbelt laws on seatbelt use, motor vehicle fatalities, and crash-related injuries among youths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Christopher S; Stehr, Mark

    2008-05-01

    We provide the first comprehensive assessment of the effects of mandatory seatbelt laws on self-reported seatbelt use, highway fatalities, and crash-related injuries among high school age youths using data from the Centers for Disease Control's (CDC) national, state, and local Youth Risk Behavior Surveys (YRBS) and the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) from 1991 to 2005, a period spanning over 20 changes in state seatbelt laws. Our quasi-experimental approaches isolate the independent effects of seatbelt laws net of demographic characteristics, area and year fixed effects, and smooth area-specific trends. Across all data sources, we find consistent evidence that state mandatory seatbelt laws - particularly those permitting primary enforcement - significantly increased seatbelt use among high school age youths by 45-80%, primarily at the extensive margin. Unlike previous research for adults, however, we find evidence against the selective recruitment hypothesis: seatbelt laws had consistently larger effects on those most likely to be involved in traffic accidents (drinkers, alcohol-involved drivers). We also find that mandatory seatbelt laws significantly reduced traffic fatalities and serious injuries resulting from fatal crashes by 8 and 9%, respectively. Our results suggest that if all states had primary enforcement seatbelt laws then regular youth seatbelt use would be nearly universal and youth fatalities would fall by about 120 per year.

  12. Crash response data system for the controlled impact demonstration (CID) of a full-scale transport aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calloway, R. S.; Knight, V. H., Jr.

    1986-01-01

    A study involving the Controlled Impact Demonstration (CID) of a transport category aircraft was conducted with the objective to improve occupant safety during survivable crash scenarios. in connection with this study, the first remotely-piloted Full-Scale Transport aircraft was purposely crashed into the California desert. The program was initated to demonstrate the effectiveness of an imisting kerosene (AMK), a fuel additive emplyed to reduce postcrash fires. The unmanned CID flight carried 73 life-like flight research dummies, multiple experiments, high-speed interior cabin cameras, and the high-environment Crash Response Data System. Attention is given to the design approach, a block diagram of the Crash Response Data System, measurements, the digital data subsystem, signal conditioning, telemetry, on-board recording, the power subsystem, preflight checkout and calibration, and aspects of system qualification.

  13. Crash characteristics and patterns of injury among hospitalized motorised two-wheeled vehicle users in urban India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzharris, Michael; Dandona, Rakhi; Kumar, G Anil; Dandona, Lalit

    2009-01-01

    Background Traffic crashes and consequent injuries represent a growing public health concern in India, particularly in light of increasing motorization. Motorised two-wheeled vehicles (MTV) constitute a large portion of the vehicle fleet in India. We report the crash characteristics and injury patterns among a cohort of MTV riders and pillions presenting to hospital post-crash. Methods Consecutive MTV riders and pillions, whether alive or dead, injured in a road traffic crash presenting to the emergency departments of two government hospitals and three branches of a private hospital in urban Hyderabad, India, were recruited to this study. Results 378 MTV users were enrolled to the study of whom 333 (88.1%) were male, 252 (66.7%) were riders and median age was 31.3 years. A total of 223 (59%) MTV users were injured in multi-vehicle crashes while one-third had a frontal impact. The majority (77%) were assessed as having a Glasgow coma score (GCS) of 13–15, 12% a GCS of 9–12 and 11% a GCS of 3–8. No difference was seen in the severity distribution of injuries based on GCS among riders and pillions. Open wounds and superficial injuries to the head (69.3%) and upper extremity (27%) and lower extremity (24%) were the most common injuries. 43 (11%) sustained an intracranial injury, including 12 (28%) with associated fracture of the bones of the head. There were few differences in types of injuries sustained by riders and pillions though riders had a significantly lower risk of crush injuries of the lower extremity than pillions (relative risk, RR 0.25, 95% CI 0.08–0.81) and female pillions were at a significantly lower risk of sustaining fractures of the lower extremity than male pillions (RR 0.30, 95% CI 0.09 – 0.94). Overall, 42 (11%) MTV users died, of which 42.8% died before reaching the hospital. Only 74 (19.6%) MTV users had worn a helmet correctly and failure to wear a helmet was associated with a five times greater risk of intracranial injury (RR 4

  14. Crash characteristics and patterns of injury among hospitalized motorised two-wheeled vehicle users in urban India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dandona Rakhi

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Traffic crashes and consequent injuries represent a growing public health concern in India, particularly in light of increasing motorization. Motorised two-wheeled vehicles (MTV constitute a large portion of the vehicle fleet in India. We report the crash characteristics and injury patterns among a cohort of MTV riders and pillions presenting to hospital post-crash. Methods Consecutive MTV riders and pillions, whether alive or dead, injured in a road traffic crash presenting to the emergency departments of two government hospitals and three branches of a private hospital in urban Hyderabad, India, were recruited to this study. Results 378 MTV users were enrolled to the study of whom 333 (88.1% were male, 252 (66.7% were riders and median age was 31.3 years. A total of 223 (59% MTV users were injured in multi-vehicle crashes while one-third had a frontal impact. The majority (77% were assessed as having a Glasgow coma score (GCS of 13–15, 12% a GCS of 9–12 and 11% a GCS of 3–8. No difference was seen in the severity distribution of injuries based on GCS among riders and pillions. Open wounds and superficial injuries to the head (69.3% and upper extremity (27% and lower extremity (24% were the most common injuries. 43 (11% sustained an intracranial injury, including 12 (28% with associated fracture of the bones of the head. There were few differences in types of injuries sustained by riders and pillions though riders had a significantly lower risk of crush injuries of the lower extremity than pillions (relative risk, RR 0.25, 95% CI 0.08–0.81 and female pillions were at a significantly lower risk of sustaining fractures of the lower extremity than male pillions (RR 0.30, 95% CI 0.09 – 0.94. Overall, 42 (11% MTV users died, of which 42.8% died before reaching the hospital. Only 74 (19.6% MTV users had worn a helmet correctly and failure to wear a helmet was associated with a five times greater risk of intracranial

  15. A preliminary investigation of the relationships between historical crash and naturalistic driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, Anurag; Chand, Sai; Saxena, Neeraj; Dixit, Vinayak; Loy, James; Wolshon, Brian; Kent, Joshua D

    2017-02-16

    This paper describes a project that was undertaken using naturalistic driving data collected via Global Positioning System (GPS) devices to demonstrate a proof-of-concept for proactive safety assessments of crash-prone locations. The main hypothesis for the study is that the segments where drivers have to apply hard braking (higher jerks) more frequently might be the "unsafe" segments with more crashes over a long-term. The linear referencing methodology in ArcMap was used to link the GPS data with roadway characteristic data of US Highway 101 northbound (NB) and southbound (SB) in San Luis Obispo, California. The process used to merge GPS data with quarter-mile freeway segments for traditional crash frequency analysis is also discussed in the paper. A negative binomial regression analyses showed that proportion of high magnitude jerks while decelerating on freeway segments (from the driving data) was significantly related with the long-term crash frequency of those segments. A random parameter negative binomial model with uniformly distributed parameter for ADT and a fixed parameter for jerk provided a statistically significant estimate for quarter-mile segments. The results also indicated that roadway curvature and the presence of auxiliary lane are not significantly related with crash frequency for the highway segments under consideration. The results from this exploration are promising since the data used to derive the explanatory variable(s) can be collected using most off-the-shelf GPS devices, including many smartphones.

  16. A comparative study on crash-influencing factors by facility types on urban expressway

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong Wu; Hideki Nakamura; Miho Asano

    2013-01-01

    This study aims at identifying crash-influencing factors by facility type of Nagoya Urban Expressway, considering the interaction of geometry, traffic flow, and ambient conditions. Crash rate (CR) model is firstly developed separately at four facility types: basic, merge, and diverge segments and sharp curve. Traffic flows are thereby categorized, and based on the traffic categories, the significances of factors affecting crashes are analyzed by principal component analysis. The results reveal that, the CR at merge segment is significantly higher than those at basic and diverge segments in uncongested flow, while the value is not significantly different at the three facility types in congested flow. In both un-and congested flows, sharp curve has the worst safety performance in view of its highest CR. Regarding influencing factors, geometric design and traffic flow are most significant in un- and congested flows, respectively. As mainline flow increases, the effect of merging ratio affecting crash is on the rise at basic and merge segments as opposed to the decreasing significance of diverging ratio at diverge segment. Mean-while, longer acceleration and deceleration lanes are adverse to safety in uncongested flow, while shorter acceleration and deceleration lanes are adverse in con-gested flow. Due to its special geometric design, crashes at sharp curve are highly associated with the large centrifugal force and heavy restricted visibility.

  17. The role of intersection and street design on severity of bicycle-motor vehicle crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Santosh; Mekary, Rania A; Courtney, Theodore K; Christiani, David C

    2017-01-01

    Background Safety concerns are a major barrier to cycling. Intersection and street design variables such as intersection angles and street width might contribute to the severity of crashes and the safety concerns. In this study we examined whether these design variables were associated with bicycle-motor vehicle crashes (BMVC) severity. Methods Using the geographical information system and latitudes/longitudes recorded by the police using a global positioning device, we extracted intersection angles, street width, bicycle facilities, posted speed limits and annual average daily traffic from 3266 BMVC data from New York City police records. Additional variables about BMVC, including age and sex of the bicyclist, time of the day, road surface conditions, road character, vehicle type and injury severity, were obtained from police reports. Injury severity was classified as severe (incapacitating or killed) or non-severe (non-incapacitating, possible injury). The associations between injury severity and environment design variables were examined using multivariate log-binomial regression model. Findings Compared with crashes at orthogonal intersections, crashes at non-orthogonal intersections had 1.37 times (95% CI 1.05 to 1.80) and non-intersection street segments had 1.31 times (95% CI 1.01 to 1.70) higher risk of a severe injury. Crashes that involved a truck or a bus were twice as likely to result in a severe injury outcome; street width was not significantly associated with injury severity. Conclusion Crashes at non-orthogonal intersections and non-intersection segments are more likely to result in higher injury severity. The findings can be used to improve road design and develop effective safety interventions. PMID:27881469

  18. CRASH3: cosmological radiative transfer through metals

    CERN Document Server

    Graziani, L; Ciardi, B

    2012-01-01

    Here we introduce CRASH3, the latest release of the 3D radiative transfer code CRASH. In its current implementation CRASH3 integrates into the reference algorithm the code Cloudy to evaluate the ionisation states of metals, self-consistently with the radiative transfer through H and He. The feedback of the heavy elements on the calculation of the gas temperature is also taken into account, making of CRASH3 the first 3D code for cosmological applications which treats self-consistently the radiative transfer through an inhomogeneous distribution of metal enriched gas with an arbitrary number of point sources and/or a background radiation. The code has been tested in idealized configurations, as well as in a more realistic case of multiple sources embedded in a polluted cosmic web. Through these validation tests the new method has been proven to be numerically stable and convergent. We have studied the dependence of the results on a number of physical quantities such as the source characteristics (spectral range...

  19. Vital Signs-Motor Vehicle Crash Injuries

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2014-10-07

    This podcast is based on the October 2014 CDC Vital Signs report. Motor vehicle crashes are costly and preventable. Learn what can be done to help prevent motor vehicle injuries.  Created: 10/7/2014 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP).   Date Released: 10/7/2014.

  20. Motor Vehicle Crash Injuries PSA (:60)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2014-10-07

    This 60 second Public Service Announcement is based on the October 2014 CDC Vital Signs report. Motor vehicle crashes are costly and preventable. Learn what can be done to help prevent motor vehicle injuries.  Created: 10/7/2014 by National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (NCIPC).   Date Released: 10/7/2014.

  1. Vehicle dynamics and crash dynamics with minicomputer.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giavotto, V. Puccinelli, L. Borri, M. Edelman, A. & Heijer, T.

    1982-01-01

    The definition and the development of the VEDYAC system is given. Following a previous large experience concerning the simulation of crashes with safety barriers, a basic philosophy has been developed and the requirements of the VEDYAC project have been fixed. The main features of the VEDYAC project

  2. Safety impacts of platform tram stops on pedestrians in mixed traffic operation: A comparison group before-after crash study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naznin, Farhana; Currie, Graham; Logan, David; Sarvi, Majid

    2016-01-01

    Tram stops in mixed traffic environments present a variety of safety, accessibility and transport efficiency challenges. In Melbourne, Australia the hundred year-old electric tram system is progressively being modernized to improve passenger accessibility. Platform stops, incorporating raised platforms for level entry into low floor trams, are being retro-fitted system-wide to replace older design stops. The aim of this study was to investigate the safety impacts of platform stops over older design stops (i.e. Melbourne safety zone tram stops) on pedestrians in the context of mixed traffic tram operation in Melbourne, using an advanced before-after crash analysis approach, the comparison group (CG) method. The CG method evaluates safety impacts by taking into account the general trends in safety and the unobserved factors at treatment and comparison sites that can alter the outcomes of a simple before-after analysis. The results showed that pedestrian-involved all injury crashes reduced by 43% after platform stop installation. This paper also explores a concern that the conventional CG method might underestimate safety impacts as a result of large differences in passenger stop use between treatment and comparison sites, suggesting differences in crash risk exposure. To adjust for this, a modified analysis explored crash rates (crash counts per 10,000 stop passengers) for each site. The adjusted results suggested greater reductions in pedestrian-involved crashes after platform stop installation: an 81% reduction in pedestrian-involved all injury crashes and 86% reduction in pedestrian-involved FSI crashes, both are significant at the 95% level. Overall, the results suggest that platform stops have considerable safety benefits for pedestrians. Implications for policy and areas for future research are explored.

  3. Study on the Effect of Corporate Social Responsibility Disclosure on Stock Price Crash Risk Based on Mediation Mechanism of Accounting Conservatism%社会责任披露对股价崩盘风险的影响研究:基于会计稳健性的中介机理

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    权小锋; 肖红军

    2016-01-01

    企业社会责任信息披露到底体现了股东“价值主义”还是管理层“机会主义”,这个问题成为近年来财务学和社会学交叉研究的热点问题。本文切入会计稳健性的中介效应检验视角,系统分析了社会责任信息披露与股价崩盘风险之间的内在关系及其形成机理。研究发现:社会责任信息披露水平与条件性会计稳健性存在显著负向关系,且这种负向关系仅在强制披露和未进行第三方信息鉴证的社会责任报告公司存在;而条件性会计稳健性会负面影响未来期股价的崩盘风险。进一步的机理分析证实会计稳健性是社会责任信息披露与股价崩盘风险之间的部分中介因子,表明在我国资本市场,非财务信息的披露会影响管理层的会计政策选择进而对资本市场产生极端影响。总体结论证实我国企业社会责任信息披露体现了“机会推动”而非“价值驱动”的假说。%Does the behavior of corporate social responsibility disclosure reflect “values strategy of shareholder” or“opportunism tool of management”? This question has become a hot issue in the interdisciplinary research of finance and sociology in recent years. This paper,from the perspective of the mediating analysis of accounting conservatism,made a systematic analysis on the internal relation and its formation mechanism between the corporate social responsibility disclosure and the stock price crash risk. The research indicated the following. First,the corporate social disclosure level is negative correlated with conditional accounting conservatism and this kind of negative correlation only exists in those corporate social responsibility reports which are mandatorily disclosed and have no third-party information assurance. Second,conditional accounting conservatism has a negative impact on future stock price crash risk. Last,path test revealed that accounting conservatism is part

  4. Defining and screening crash surrogate events using naturalistic driving data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Kun-Feng; Jovanis, Paul P

    2013-12-01

    Naturalistic driving studies provide an excellent opportunity to better understand crash causality and to supplement crash observations with a much larger number of near crash events. The goal of this research is the development of a set of diagnostic procedures to define, screen, and identify crash and near crash events that can be used in enhanced safety analyses. A way to better understand crash occurrence and identify potential countermeasures to improve safety is to learn from and use near crash events, particularly those near crashes that have a common etiology to crash outcomes. This paper demonstrates that a multi-stage modeling framework can be used to search through naturalistic driving data, extracting statistically similar crashes and near crashes. The procedure is tested using data from the VTTI 100-car study for road departure events. A total of 63 events are included in this application. While the sample size is limited in this empirical study, the authors believe the procedure is ready for testing in other applications.

  5. How similar are two-unit bicycle and motorcycle crashes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haworth, Narelle; Debnath, Ashim Kumar

    2013-09-01

    This paper explores the similarities and differences between bicycle and motorcycle crashes with other motor vehicles. If similar treatments can be effective for both bicycle and motorcycle crashes, then greater benefits in terms of crash costs saved may be possible for the same investment in treatments. To reduce the biases associated with under-reporting of these crashes to police, property damage and minor injury crashes were excluded. The most common crash type for both bicycles (31.1%) and motorcycles (24.5%) was intersection from adjacent approaches. Drivers of other vehicles were coded most at fault in the majority of two-unit bicycle (57.0%) and motorcycle crashes (62.7%). The crash types, patterns of fault and factors affecting fault were generally similar for bicycle and motorcycle crashes. This confirms the need to combat the factors contributing to failure of other drivers to yield right of way to two-wheelers, and suggest that some of these actions should prove beneficial to the safety of both motorized and non-motorized two-wheelers. In contrast, child bicyclists were more often at fault, particularly in crashes involving a vehicle leaving the driveway or footpath. The greater reporting of violations by riders and drivers in motorcycle crashes also deserves further investigation.

  6. Lung cancer screening: identifying the high risk cohort

    OpenAIRE

    Marcus, Michael W.; Raji, Olaide Y; John K. Field

    2015-01-01

    Low dose computed tomography (LDCT) is a viable screening tool for early lung cancer detection and mortality reduction. In practice, the success of any lung cancer screening programme will depend on successful identification of individuals at high risk in order to maximise the benefit-harm ratio. Risk prediction models incorporating multiple risk factors have been recognised as a method of identifying individuals at high risk of developing lung cancer. Identification of individuals at high ri...

  7. The mean time-limited crash rate of stock price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yun-Xian; Li, Jiang-Cheng; Yang, Ai-Jun; Tang, Nian-Sheng

    2017-05-01

    In this article we investigate the occurrence of stock market crash in an economy cycle. Bayesian approach, Heston model and statistical-physical method are considered. Specifically, Heston model and an effective potential are employed to address the dynamic changes of stock price. Bayesian approach has been utilized to estimate the Heston model's unknown parameters. Statistical physical method is used to investigate the occurrence of stock market crash by calculating the mean time-limited crash rate. The real financial data from the Shanghai Composite Index is analyzed with the proposed methods. The mean time-limited crash rate of stock price is used to describe the occurrence of stock market crash in an economy cycle. The monotonous and nonmonotonous behaviors are observed in the behavior of the mean time-limited crash rate versus volatility of stock for various cross correlation coefficient between volatility and price. Also a minimum occurrence of stock market crash matching an optimal volatility is discovered.

  8. Effectiveness of forward collision warning and autonomous emergency braking systems in reducing front-to-rear crash rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cicchino, Jessica B

    2017-02-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of forward collision warning (FCW) alone, a low-speed autonomous emergency braking (AEB) system operational at speeds up to 19mph that does not warn the driver prior to braking, and FCW with AEB that operates at higher speeds in reducing front-to-rear crashes and injuries. Poisson regression was used to compare rates of police-reported crash involvements per insured vehicle year in 22 U.S. states during 2010-2014 between passenger vehicle models with FCW alone or with AEB and the same models where the optional systems were not purchased, controlling for other factors affecting crash risk. Similar analyses compared rates between Volvo 2011-2012 model S60 and 2010-2012 model XC60 vehicles with a standard low-speed AEB system to those of other luxury midsize cars and SUVs, respectively, without the system. FCW alone, low-speed AEB, and FCW with AEB reduced rear-end striking crash involvement rates by 27%, 43%, and 50%, respectively. Rates of rear-end striking crash involvements with injuries were reduced by 20%, 45%, and 56%, respectively, by FCW alone, low-speed AEB, and FCW with AEB, and rates of rear-end striking crash involvements with third-party injuries were reduced by 18%, 44%, and 59%, respectively. Reductions in rear-end striking crashes with third-party injuries were marginally significant for FCW alone, and all other reductions were statistically significant. FCW alone and low-speed AEB reduced rates of being rear struck in rear-end crashes by 13% and 12%, respectively, but FCW with AEB increased rates of rear-end struck crash involvements by 20%. Almost 1 million U.S. police-reported rear-end crashes in 2014 and more than 400,000 injuries in such crashes could have been prevented if all vehicles were equipped with FCW and AEB that perform similarly as systems did for study vehicles. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Commuter motorcycle crashes in Malaysia: An understanding of contributing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oxley, Jennifer; Yuen, Jeremy; Ravi, Mano Deepa; Hoareau, Effie; Mohammed, Mohammed Azman Aziz; Bakar, Harun; Venkataraman, Saraswathy; Nair, Prame Kumar

    2013-01-01

    In Malaysia, two-thirds of reported workplace-related fatal and serious injury incidents are the result of commuting crashes (especially those involving motorcyclists), however, little is known about the contributing factors to these collisions. A telephone survey of 1,750 motorcyclists (1,004 adults who had been involved in a motorcycle commuting crash in the last 2 years and 746 adult motorcyclists who had not been involved in a motorcycle crash in the last 2 years) was undertaken. The contributions of a range of behavioural, attitudinal, employment and travel pattern factors to collision involvement were examined. The findings revealed that the majority of participants were licensed riders, rode substantial distances (most often for work purposes), and reported adopting safe riding practices (helmet wearing and buckling). However, there were some concerning findings regarding speeding behaviour, use of mobile phones while riding, and engaging in other risky behaviours. Participants who had been involved in a collision were younger (aged 25-29 years), had higher exposure (measured by distances travelled, frequency of riding, and riding on high volume and higher speed roads), reported higher rates of riding for work purposes, worked more shift hours and had a higher likelihood of riding at relatively high speeds compared with participants who had not been involved in a collision. Collisions generally occurred during morning and early evening hours, striking another vehicles, and during normal traffic flow. The implications of these findings for policy decisions and development of evidence-based behavioural/training interventions addressing key contributing factors are discussed.

  10. Survivors’ experiences from a train crash

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Forsberg

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Rarely described are people's lived experiences from severe injury events such as train crashes. The number of train crashes named disasters with ≥10 killed and/or ≥100 nonfatally injured grows globally and the trend shows that more people survive these disasters today than did so in the past. This results in an increased number of survivors needing care. The aim of the study was to explore survivors’ experiences from a train crash. Narrative interviews were performed with 14 passengers 4 years after a train crash event. Qualitative content analysis was used to analyse the interviews. Experiences were captured in three main themes: (1 Living in the mode of existential threat describes how the survivors first lost control, then were thrown into a state of unimaginable chaos as they faced death. (2 Dealing with the unthinkable described how survivors restored control, the central role of others, and the importance of reconstructing the event to move forward in their processing. (3 Having cheated death shows how some became shackled by their history, whereas others overcame the haunting of unforgettable memories. Furthermore, the result shows how all experienced a second chance in life. Experiencing a train crash meant that the passengers experienced severe vulnerability and a threat to life and interdependence turned out to play a crucial role. Focusing on helping other passengers on site was one way to regain the loss of control and kept the chaos at bay. Family, friends, and fellow passengers turned out to be extremely important during the recovery process why such closeness should be promoted and facilitated.

  11. Survivors' experiences from a train crash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsberg, Rebecca; Saveman, Britt-Inger

    2011-01-01

    Rarely described are people's lived experiences from severe injury events such as train crashes. The number of train crashes named disasters with ≥10 killed and/or ≥100 nonfatally injured grows globally and the trend shows that more people survive these disasters today than did so in the past. This results in an increased number of survivors needing care. The aim of the study was to explore survivors' experiences from a train crash. Narrative interviews were performed with 14 passengers 4 years after a train crash event. Qualitative content analysis was used to analyse the interviews. Experiences were captured in three main themes: (1) Living in the mode of existential threat describes how the survivors first lost control, then were thrown into a state of unimaginable chaos as they faced death. (2) Dealing with the unthinkable described how survivors restored control, the central role of others, and the importance of reconstructing the event to move forward in their processing. (3) Having cheated death shows how some became shackled by their history, whereas others overcame the haunting of unforgettable memories. Furthermore, the result shows how all experienced a second chance in life. Experiencing a train crash meant that the passengers experienced severe vulnerability and a threat to life and interdependence turned out to play a crucial role. Focusing on helping other passengers on site was one way to regain the loss of control and kept the chaos at bay. Family, friends, and fellow passengers turned out to be extremely important during the recovery process why such closeness should be promoted and facilitated.

  12. Spinal cord injuries from road traffic crashes in southeastern Iran

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mohammad R Rasouli; Mohsen Nouri; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar

    2007-01-01

    Objective: To analyze the data of patients with spinal cord injury (SCI) induced by road traffic crashes in southeastern Iran for better understanding the pattern of these injuries and therefore for better designing health system planning.Methods: In this historical cohort study, the patients who had been transferred to Level I trauma center in southeastern Iran due to road traffic accidents with radiographic documented SCI were evaluated.Results: Among 64 patients with SCI, 38 patients (59.4%, 36 males and 2 females, aged 27.42 years ± 9.44 years on average) were injured by road traffic accidents.Car and motorcycle accidents were responsible for 26 cases (68.4%) and 12 cases (31.6%), respectively. And 31 patients (81. 6%) had complete SCI. Conus medularis (T12-L2) was the most affected level.Conclusions: Results are discussed in terms of preventive measures, specifically those concerning the use of restraint and helmet and driving behavior. This study should be extended nationally to gain a larger case series so that the SCI risk of particular vehicle configurations,considering other crash factors, can be more precisely quantified and the characteristics for low occurrence of SCI can be more precisely identified.

  13. The effects of studded tires on fatal crashes with passenger cars and the benefits of electronic stability control (ESC) in Swedish winter driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strandroth, Johan; Rizzi, Matteo; Olai, Maria; Lie, Anders; Tingvall, Claes

    2012-03-01

    This study set out to examine the effects of studded tires on fatal crashes on roads covered with ice or snow in Sweden and also to investigate the extra benefits of electronic stability control (ESC) during the winter months. Two different studies are presented in this paper. Both studies used an induced exposure approach. In the main study, 369 in-depth studies of fatal crashes with passenger cars were analyzed to determine whether loss-of-control (LOC) had been a major component or not. Only crashes involving cars without ESC and equipped with approved studded or non-studded winter tires were analyzed. The additional study used police-reported crashes that occurred during the winter seasons 2003-2010, involving passenger cars with and without ESC. While police records in Sweden do not include any tire information, it was assumed that most cars involved in crashes during the winter period would be equipped with studded tires. Findings in the main study showed that in 64% of the fatal crashes on roads covered with ice or snow LOC had been a major component. Furthermore, in 82% of LOC crashes, the passenger car over-steered prior to collision. Studded tires were found to have a statistically significant effect of 42% in terms of fatal crash reduction on roads covered with ice or snow, compared to non-studded winter tires. The effect on dry or wet roads in the winter was negative, although statistically non-significant. In the additional study, it was found that ESC further reduced crashes with injuries by 29%. The benefits on severe and fatal crashes were slightly greater (32%), although the lower 95% confidence limit was lower. Although studded tires were shown to reduce the risk of fatal crash involvement, compared to non-studded winter tires, the proportion of LOC and over-steering among cars with studded tires was large (59% and 49%, respectively). It was therefore concluded that studded tires do not prevent all LOC crashes, while ESC has benefits in those

  14. Trainees operating on high-risk patients without cardiopulmonary bypass: a high-risk strategy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascione, Raimondo; Reeves, Barnaby C; Pano, Marco; Angelini, Gianni D

    2004-07-01

    The safety of teaching off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting to trainees is best tested in high-risk patients, who are more likely to experience significant morbidity after surgery. This study compared outcomes of off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting operations performed by consultants and trainees in high-risk patients. Data for consecutive patients undergoing off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting were collected prospectively. Patients satisfying at least one of the following criteria were classified as high-risk: age older than 75 years, ejection fraction less than 0.30, myocardial infarction in the previous month, current congestive heart failure, previous cerebrovascular accident, creatinine greater than 150 micromol/L, respiratory impairment, peripheral vascular disease, previous cardiac surgery, and left main stem stenosis greater than 50%. Early morbidity, 30-day mortality, and late survival were compared. From April 1996 to December 2002, 686 high-risk patients underwent off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting revascularization. Operations by five consultants (416; 61%) and four trainees (239; 35%) were the focus of subsequent analyses. Nine visiting or research fellows performed the other 31 operations. Prognostic factors were more favorable in trainee-led operations. On average, consultants and trainees grafted the same number of vessels. There were 18 (4.3%) and 5 (1.9%) deaths within 30 days, and 14 (3.4%) and 5 (1.9%) myocardial infarctions in consultant and trainee groups, respectively. After adjusting for imbalances in prognostic factors, odd ratios for almost all adverse outcomes implied no increased risk with trainee operators, although patients operated on by trainees had longer postoperative stays and were more likely to have a red blood cell transfusion. Kaplan-Meier cumulative mortality estimates at 24-month follow-up were 10.5% (95% confidence interval, 7.7% to 14.2%) and 6.4% (95% confidence interval, 3.8% to 10.9%) in consultant

  15. Prevalence and factors associated with road traffic crash among taxi drivers in Mekelle town, northern Ethiopia, 2014: a cross sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asefa, Nigus Gebremedhin; Ingale, Lalit; Shumey, Ashenafi; Yang, Hannah

    2015-01-01

    The 2013 World Health Organization Status Report on Road Safety estimated that approximately 1.24 million deaths occur annually due to road traffic crashes with most of the burden falling on low- and middle-income countries. The objective of this research is to study the prevalence of road traffic crashes in Mekelle, Tigray, Northern Ethiopia and to identify risk factors with the ultimate goal of informing prevention activities and policies. This study used a cross-sectional design to measure the prevalence and factors associated with road traffic crashes among 4-wheeled minibus (n = 130) and 3-wheeled Bajaj (n = 582) taxi drivers in Mekelle, Ethiopia. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to evaluate the association between risk factors and drivers' involvement in a road traffic crash within the 3 years prior to the survey. Among the 712 taxi drivers, 26.4% (n = 188) of them reported involvement in a road traffic crash within the past 3 years. Drivers who listened to mass media had decreased likelihood of road traffic crash involvement (AOR = 0.51, 0.33-0.78), while speedy driving (AOR = 4.57, 3.05-7.44), receipt of a prior traffic punishment (AOR = 4.57, 2.67-7.85), and driving a mechanically faulty taxi (AOR = 4.91, 2.81-8.61) were strongly associated with road traffic crash involvement. Receiving mobile phone calls while driving (AOR = 1.91, 1.24-2.92) and history of alcohol use (AOR = 1.51, 1.00-2.28) were also associated with higher odds of road traffic crash involvement. The results of this study show that taxi drivers in Mekelle habitually place themselves at increased risk of road traffic crashes by violating traffic laws, especially related to speedy driving, mobile phone use, and taxi maintenance. This research can be used to support re-evaluation of the type, severity, and enforcement of traffic violation penalties.

  16. Recession Depression: Mental Health Effects of the 2008 Stock Market Crash*

    Science.gov (United States)

    McInerney, Melissa; Mellor, Jennifer M.; Nicholas, Lauren Hersch

    2013-01-01

    Do sudden, large wealth losses affect mental health? We use exogenous variation in the interview dates of the 2008 Health and Retirement Study to assess the impact of large wealth losses on mental health among older U.S. adults. We compare cross-wave changes in wealth and mental health for respondents interviewed before and after the October 2008 stock market crash. We find that the crash reduced wealth and increased feelings of depression and use of antidepressant drugs, and that these effects were largest among respondents with high levels of stock holdings prior to the crash. These results suggest that sudden wealth losses cause immediate declines in subjective measures of mental health. However, we find no evidence that wealth losses lead to increases in clinically-validated measures of depressive symptoms or indicators of depression. PMID:24113241

  17. Recession depression: mental health effects of the 2008 stock market crash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McInerney, Melissa; Mellor, Jennifer M; Nicholas, Lauren Hersch

    2013-12-01

    Do sudden, large wealth losses affect mental health? We use exogenous variation in the interview dates of the 2008 Health and Retirement Study to assess the impact of large wealth losses on mental health among older U.S. adults. We compare cross-wave changes in wealth and mental health for respondents interviewed before and after the October 2008 stock market crash. We find that the crash reduced wealth and increased feelings of depression and use of antidepressant drugs, and that these effects were largest among respondents with high levels of stock holdings prior to the crash. These results suggest that sudden wealth losses cause immediate declines in subjective measures of mental health. However, we find no evidence that wealth losses lead to increases in clinically-validated measures of depressive symptoms or indicators of depression.

  18. Injury Severity of Motorcycle Riders Involved in Traffic Crashes in Hunan, China: A Mixed Ordered Logit Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangrong Chang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Issues related to motorcycle safety in China have not received enough research attention. As such, the causal relationship between injury outcomes of motorcycle crashes and potential risk factors remains unknown. This study intended to investigate the injury risk of motorcyclists involved in road traffic crashes in China. To account for the ordinal nature of response outcomes and unobserved heterogeneity, a mixed ordered logit model was employed. Given that the crash occurrence process is different between intersections and non-intersections, separate models were developed for these locations to independently estimate the impacts of various contributing factors on motorcycle riders’ injury severity. The analysis was based on the police-reported crash dataset obtained from the Traffic Administration Bureau of Hunan Provincial Public Security Ministry. Factors associated with a substantially higher probability of fatalities and severe injuries included motorcycle riders older than 60 years, the absence of helmets, motorcycle riders identified to be equal duty, and when a motorcycle collided with a heavy vehicle during the night time without lighting. Crashes occurred along county roads with curve and slope alignment or at regions with higher GDP were associated with an elevated risk of fatality of motorcycle riders, while unsignalized intersections were related to less severe injuries. Findings of this study are beneficial in forming several targeted countermeasures for motorcycle safety in China, including designing roads with appropriate road delineation and street lighting, strict enforcement for speeding and red light violations, promoting helmet usage, and improving the conspicuity of motorcyclists.

  19. Injury Severity of Motorcycle Riders Involved in Traffic Crashes in Hunan, China: A Mixed Ordered Logit Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Fangrong; Li, Maosheng; Xu, Pengpeng; Zhou, Hanchu; Haque, Md Mazharul; Huang, Helai

    2016-07-14

    Issues related to motorcycle safety in China have not received enough research attention. As such, the causal relationship between injury outcomes of motorcycle crashes and potential risk factors remains unknown. This study intended to investigate the injury risk of motorcyclists involved in road traffic crashes in China. To account for the ordinal nature of response outcomes and unobserved heterogeneity, a mixed ordered logit model was employed. Given that the crash occurrence process is different between intersections and non-intersections, separate models were developed for these locations to independently estimate the impacts of various contributing factors on motorcycle riders' injury severity. The analysis was based on the police-reported crash dataset obtained from the Traffic Administration Bureau of Hunan Provincial Public Security Ministry. Factors associated with a substantially higher probability of fatalities and severe injuries included motorcycle riders older than 60 years, the absence of helmets, motorcycle riders identified to be equal duty, and when a motorcycle collided with a heavy vehicle during the night time without lighting. Crashes occurred along county roads with curve and slope alignment or at regions with higher GDP were associated with an elevated risk of fatality of motorcycle riders, while unsignalized intersections were related to less severe injuries. Findings of this study are beneficial in forming several targeted countermeasures for motorcycle safety in China, including designing roads with appropriate road delineation and street lighting, strict enforcement for speeding and red light violations, promoting helmet usage, and improving the conspicuity of motorcyclists.

  20. Frontal Crash Analysis of a Fully Detailed Car Model Based on Finite Element Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Han Shan-Ling; Zhu Ping; Lin Zhong-Qin; Shi Yu-Liang

    2004-01-01

    This paper sets up a highly detailed finite element model of a car for frontal crashworthiness applications, and then explains the characteristics of it. The geometry model is preprocessed by Hypermesh software. The finite element method solver program selected for the simulation is LS-DYNA. After the crash simulation is carefully analyzed, the frontal crash experiment is aimed to validate the finite element model. The simulation results are basically in agreement with the experimental results. The validation of the finite element model is crucial for the further research in optimization of the automotive structure or lightweighting of the vehicle.

  1. Analysis of 86 fatal motorcycle frontal crashes in

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHAO Hui

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available 【Abstract】Objective: To analyze the injuries of motorcyclists involved in fatal motorcycle frontal crashes. Methods: A survey group involving multi-discipline experts was built to randomly collect data on fatal motor-cycle frontal collision accidents that occurred in Chongqing during 2006-2010. The sampled information included medi-cal or autopsy reports, blood alcohol concentration (BAC level, helmet use, accident witness, field sketch as well as field photos. The motorcyclist injuries were scored accord-ing to the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS 2005. The involved riders with a BAC level≥20 mg/ml were attributed to alco-hol use. Data were processed statistically with nonparamet-ric test via software SPSS 11.0. Results: A total of 86 fatal motorcycle frontal crashes were sampled and further analyzed. The age of motorcy-clists enrolled in this investigation showed nominal distri-bution and the middle-aged (30-39 years occupied the high-est percentage of fatalities. There were only 14 motorcyclists (16.3% wearing helmets at the moment of collision. And 12.8% of these motorcyclist crashes were attributable to alcohol use. Impact injury was the main fatal cause, accounting for 72% of motorcyclist deaths, followed by tumbling injury (26% and run-over (2%. Respectively 84%, 22% and 19% of motorcyclists who sustained head, chest and abdominal trauma died. Extremity injury was the most frequently ob-served injury type. Conclusions: This investigation is helpful to build accident prevention programs and develop protection de-vices which may effectively mitigate injuries and prevent deaths following motorcycle frontal collision accidents. Further investigations on motorcycle collision accidents are still needed. Key words: Motorcycles; Mortality; Accidents, traffic; Wounds and injuries

  2. [Anesthesiological management of the high-risk surgical patient].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertoldi, G; Avalle, M

    1980-03-01

    Evaluation of the anaesthesiological risk in surgical patients is described and an account is given of results obtained with an association of ketamin and NLA II in 57 high-risk patients subjected to general surgical management.

  3. Systemic Immunomodulatory Strategies in High-risk Corneal Transplantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abud, Tulio B.; Di Zazzo, Antonio; Kheirkhah, Ahmad; Dana, Reza

    2017-01-01

    The cornea is the most commonly transplanted tissue in the body. Although corneal grafts generally have high success rates, transplantation onto inflamed and vascularized host beds, or so-called high-risk corneal transplantation, has a high rate of graft rejection. The management of this high-risk corneal transplantation is challenging and involves numerous measures. One of the key measures to prevent graft rejection in these cases is the use of systemic immunosuppressive agents. In this article, we will review the systemic immunosuppressive agents most commonly used for high-risk corneal transplantation, which include corticosteroids, cysclosporine A, tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and rapamycin. Benefits, risks, and published data on the use of these medications for high-risk corneal transplantation will be detailed. We will also summarize novel immunoregulatory approaches that may be used to prevent graft rejection in high-risk corneal transplantation.

  4. Exemestane Reduces Breast Cancer Risk in High-Risk Postmenopausal Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinical trial results presented at the 2011 ASCO annual meeting showed that the aromatase inhibitor exemestane—used to treat early and advanced breast cancer—substantially reduced the risk of invasive breast cancer in high-risk postmenopausal women.

  5. Passenger compartment intrusion as a predictor of significant injury for children in motor vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Susan L; Nance, Michael L; Arbogast, Kristy B; Elliott, Michael R; Winston, Flaura K

    2009-02-01

    Passenger compartment intrusion, loss of integrity of the vehicle occupant compartment due to a motor vehicle crash, has frequently been used as a triage criterion. Data to support intrusion as a proxy for injury severity in child occupants are lacking. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between intrusion and injury to children in motor vehicle crashes. Crash investigation data were reviewed from the partners for child passenger safety database, a large, child-focused crash surveillance system. Data included: intrusion (centimeters), direction of impact, age of occupant, and Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score. Analyses examined the relationship between the amount of intrusion and the risk of any AIS > or = 2, or > or = 3 injury. Data were available on 880 children, age 0 year to 15 years. AIS > or = 2 and > or = 3 injuries occurred in 40.3% and 12.6% of child occupants, respectively. Intrusion was strongly and positively associated with the odds of both an AIS > or = 2 and > or = 3 injury (p or = 2, or > or = 3 injury increased on average by 2.9% (95% CI = 1.9-3.8%), or 4.0% (95% CI = 2.7-5.2%), respectively, for each additional centimeter of intrusion, adjusting for age, restraint use, seating row, and direction of impact. The association between passenger compartment intrusion and injury in children supports its application in triage, and usefulness in injury predictive models. Future studies should determine methods for providing valid field information on intrusion to the trauma team.

  6. Influence of deficiencies in traffic control devices in crashes on two-lane rural roads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Griselda; de Oña, Juan; Garach, Laura; Baena, Leticia

    2016-11-01

    One of the main objectives of all public administrations is reducing traffic crashes. To this end, Road Safety Inspections (RSI) stand out as a key measure. Signaling roads is one of the foremost tasks of RSI. A road that is improperly or poorly signaled can lead to incorrect placement or maneuvers of vehicles and ambiguous situations that can increase the risk of crashes. This paper analyses the relationship between road crashes in two-lane rural highways and certain deficiencies in signaling. The results show that deficiencies such as "incomplete removal of road works markings" or "no guide sign or in incorrect position" are the ones associated with a higher probability of crashes in two-lane rural highways. In view of these results, governmental agencies should verify that the original conditions of a highway are re-established after any construction work is completed. They should also continuously follow up on the signaling of this type of highway in order to maintain optimal conditions.

  7. Survey of NASA research on crash dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, R. G.; Carden, H. D.; Hayduk, R. J.

    1984-01-01

    Ten years of structural crash dynamics research activities conducted on general aviation aircraft by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are described. Thirty-two full-scale crash tests were performed at Langley Research Center, and pertinent data on airframe and seat behavior were obtained. Concurrent with the experimental program, analytical methods were developed to help predict structural behavior during impact. The effects of flight parameters at impact on cabin deceleration pulses at the seat/occupant interface, experimental and analytical correlation of data on load-limiting subfloor and seat configurations, airplane section test results for computer modeling validation, and data from emergency-locator-transmitter (ELT) investigations to determine probable cause of false alarms and nonactivations are assessed. Computer programs which provide designers with analytical methods for predicting accelerations, velocities, and displacements of collapsing structures are also discussed.

  8. Pilot ejection, parachute, and helicopter crash injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBratney, Colleen M; Rush, Stephen; Kharod, Chetan U

    2014-01-01

    USAF Pararescuemen (PJs) respond to downed aircrew as a fundamental mission for personnel recovery (PR), one of the Air Force's core functions. In addition to responding to these in Military settings, the PJs from the 212 Rescue Squadron routinely respond to small plane crashes in remote regions of Alaska. While there is a paucity of information on the latter, there have been articles detailing injuries sustained from helicopter crashes and while ejecting or parachuting from fixed wing aircraft. The following represents a new chapter added to the Pararescue Medical Operations Handbook, Sixth Edition (2014, editors Matt Wolf, MD, and Stephen Rush, MD, in press). It was designed to be a quick reference for PJs and their Special Operations flight surgeons to help with understanding of mechanism of injury with regard to pilot ejection, parachute, and helicopter accident injuries. It outlines the nature of the injuries sustained in such mishaps and provides an epidemiologic framework from which to approach the problem. 2014.

  9. The seismography of crashes in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Tanya; Louçã, Francisco

    2008-01-01

    This Letter investigates the dynamics of stocks in the S&P500 for the last 33 years, considering the population of all companies present in the index for the whole period. Using a stochastic geometry technique and defining a robust index of the dynamics of the market structure, which is able to provide information about the intensity of the crises, the Letter proposes a seismographic classification of the crashes that occurred during the period. The index is used in order to investigate and to classify the impact of the thirteen crashes between July 1973 and March 2006 and to discuss the available evidence of change of structure after the fin de siècle.

  10. Risk of cardiovascular disease? A qualitative study of risk interpretation among patients with high cholesterol

    OpenAIRE

    Kirkegaard, Pia; Edwards, Adrian; Risør, Mette Bech; Thomsen, Janus Laust

    2013-01-01

    Background Previous studies have shown the importance of paying attention to lay peoples’ interpretations of risk of disease, in order to explain health-related behavior. However, risk interpretations interplay with social context in complex ways. The objective was to explore how asymptomatic patients with high cholesterol interpret risk of cardiovascular disease. Methods Fourteen patients with high cholesterol and risk of cardiovascular disease were interviewed, and patterns across patient a...

  11. Real-time wavelet detection of crashes in limit cycles of non-stationary fusion plasmas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Berkel, M.; Witvoet, G.; M.R. de Baar,; Nuij, Pwjm; Morschec, H. G. ter; Steinbuch, M.

    2011-01-01

    The high performance mode (H-mode) is one of the baseline plasma scenarios for the experimental fusion reactor ITER. This scenario features a periodic crash-like reorganization of the plasma pressure and the magnetic flux in the plasma core and plasma periphery. The core instability is often referre

  12. News Source Use in the Crash of 1987: A Study of Four National Media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasorsa, Dominic L.; Reese, Stephen D.

    1990-01-01

    Examines coverage of the stock market crash in 1987 by CBS Evening News, "Newsweek," the "New York Times," and "Wall Street Journal." Finds that print media favored Wall Street sources whereas CBS favored government sources. Finds that news media favor high prestige sources and that use of different sources results in…

  13. MADYMO : a general purpose mathematical dynamical model for crash victim simulation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bacchetti, A.C. & Maltha, J.

    1978-01-01

    This report gives a complete overview of the work of tno-iw on the program package "madymo" for crash injury prevention research, since the start in 1973. The aim of this project is the development of a highly versatile program package for 2- and 3-dimensional simulations of traffic accidents,

  14. Motor Vehicle Crash Deaths PSA (:60)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-07-06

    This 60 second public service announcement is based on the July 2016 CDC Vital Signs report. In the U.S., about 90 people die in motor vehicle crashes each day and thousands more are injured, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in direct medical costs each year. Learn what you can do to stay safe.  Created: 7/6/2016 by National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (NCIPC).   Date Released: 7/6/2016.

  15. The high-risk plaque initiative

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Falk, Erling; Sillesen, Henrik; Muntendam, Pieter;

    2011-01-01

    were assessed for both risk factors and subclinical atherosclerosis (n = 6104). The latter two groups underwent baseline examination in a dedicated mobile facility equipped with advanced imaging tools suitable for noninvasive screening for subclinical atherosclerosis (coronary artery calcium...... have been initiated, including the BioImage Study in which novel approaches are tested in a typical health plan population. Asymptomatic at-risk individuals were enrolled, including a survey-only group (n = 865), a group undergoing traditional risk factor scoring (n = 718), and a group in which all...... by computed tomography [CT], carotid and aortic disease by ultrasound, and ankle-brachial index). Selected participants were offered advanced imaging (contrast-enhanced CT, magnetic resonance imaging, and positron emission tomography/CT). Plasma, PAXgene RNA, and DNA samples were obtained for biomarker...

  16. Rear seat safety: Variation in protection by occupant, crash and vehicle characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durbin, Dennis R; Jermakian, Jessica S; Kallan, Michael J; McCartt, Anne T; Arbogast, Kristy B; Zonfrillo, Mark R; Myers, Rachel K

    2015-07-01

    Current information on the safety of rear row occupants of all ages is needed to inform further advances in rear seat restraint system design and testing. The objectives of this study were to describe characteristics of occupants in the front and rear rows of model year 2000 and newer vehicles involved in crashes and determine the risk of serious injury for restrained crash-involved rear row occupants and the relative risk of fatal injury for restrained rear row vs. front passenger seat occupants by age group, impact direction, and vehicle model year. Data from the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) and Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) were queried for all crashes during 2007-2012 involving model year 2000 and newer passenger vehicles. Data from NASS-CDS were used to describe characteristics of occupants in the front and rear rows and to determine the risk of serious injury (AIS 3+) for restrained rear row occupants by occupant age, vehicle model year, and impact direction. Using a combined data set containing data on fatalities from FARS and estimates of the total population of occupants in crashes from NASS-CDS, logistic regression modeling was used to compute the relative risk (RR) of death for restrained occupants in the rear vs. front passenger seat by occupant age, impact direction, and vehicle model year. Among all vehicle occupants in tow-away crashes during 2007-2012, 12.3% were in the rear row where the overall risk of serious injury was 1.3%. Among restrained rear row occupants, the risk of serious injury varied by occupant age, with older adults at the highest risk of serious injury (2.9%); by impact direction, with rollover crashes associated with the highest risk (1.5%); and by vehicle model year, with model year 2007 and newer vehicles having the lowest risk of serious injury (0.3%). Relative risk of death was lower for restrained children up to age 8 in the rear compared with passengers in the right

  17. 基于藤Copula-MCMC-SV-T模型的马航空难对六国(地)股指的风险传染研究%A Study on Risk Contagion from Malaysia Airlines Air Crashes to the Stock Indices of Six Countries(Regions)Based on the Model of Vine Copula-MCMC-SV-T

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    韩超; 严太华

    2016-01-01

    The two air crashes of MH370 and MH17 in 2014 caused people anxiety in the world. Anxiety passed from Malaysia Airlines plane crashes to the world conflict,the conflict leads to panics. Panics caused‘long-short’investing by abnormal be⁃havior in stock markets,stimulate stock market risk,the risk spill over from Kuala Lumpur and spread to the world. This paper depicts the volatility processes of six-dimensional marginal stock indices with the model of SV-T,inferred marginal model pa⁃rameters by using Gibbs sampling method of MCMC algorithm in Bayesian,and described the path diagram of risk contagion of six stock indices in the world in the structure of canonical vine copula,represented four different types of risk contagion by four common types of copula functions,used corresponding value of tau to represent the parameters of corresponding risk con⁃tagion,and finally described the risk contagion path and the risk magnitude from Kuala Lumpur to the world. This paper tried to provide a new idea or method for investors to make‘long and short’decision when facing emergencies and for various au⁃thorities to grasp the path of crisis contagion,reduce the risk of chain reaction and cut chain of risk contagion.%2014年马航MH370和MH17两次空难,引发世界人民的焦虑。焦虑从马航空难直指世界矛盾冲突,矛盾冲突导致恐慌。恐慌引起股市多空异常行为,引发股市风险,风险从吉隆坡传出,向世界蔓延。论文以SV-T模型刻画六维边缘股指波动进程,以MCMC算法的Gibbs抽样方法贝叶斯推断出边缘模型参数,以C藤Copula结构描述世界六国(地)股指风险传染路径图,以四种常见类型的Copula函数代表四种不同的风险传染类型,以相应的Copula函数Tau值表示风险传染参数,最终描绘出空难引起的危机从吉隆坡向世界蔓延的脉络和风险强度。论文尝试为投资者面对突发事件时进行多、空投资决策,以

  18. Coupled simulation of kinetic pedestal growth and MHD ELM crash

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, G [Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University (United States); Cummings, J [California Institute of Technology (United States); Chang, C S [Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University (United States); Podhorszki, N [Univ. California at Davis (United States); Klasky, S [ORNL (United States); Ku, S [Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University (United States); Pankin, A [Lehigh Univ. (United States); Samtaney, R [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (United States); Shoshani, A [LBNL (United States); Snyder, P [General Atomics (United States); Strauss, H [Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University (United States); Sugiyama, L [MIT (United States)

    2007-07-15

    Edge pedestal height and the accompanying ELM crash are critical elements of ITER physics yet to be understood and predicted through high performance computing. An entirely self-consistent first principles simulation is being pursued as a long term research goal, and the plan is planned for completion in time for ITER operation. However, a proof-of-principle work has already been established using a computational tool that employs the best first principles physics available at the present time. A kinetic edge equilibrium code XGC0, which can simulate the neoclassically dominant pedestal growth from neutral ionization (using a phenomenological residual turbulence diffusion motion superposed upon the neoclassical particle motion) is coupled to an extended MHD code M3D, which can perform the nonlinear ELM crash. The stability boundary of the pedestal is checked by an ideal MHD linear peeling-ballooning code, which has been validated against many experimental data sets for the large scale (type I) ELMs onset boundary. The coupling workflow and scientific results to be enabled by it are described.

  19. Protection of rear seat occupants in frontal crashes, controlling for occupant and crash characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahraei, Elham; Soudbakhsh, Damoon; Digges, Kennerly

    2009-11-01

    In this study, the level of protection offered to rear seat occupants in frontal crashes is investigated. The Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System (NASS CDS) databases were used for the analyses. The investigation focused on: 1- estimating the fatality protection effectiveness of the rear seat position relative to the right front seat position, using the double paired comparison method, 2- evaluating the effect of control group selection method on effectiveness predictions, and 3- identifying trends in rear seat occupant protection over model years of vehicles. By applying a uniform control group to the double paired comparison analysis of FARS data, this study suggests that all ages of occupants are safer in the rear seat than in the right front seat. Effectiveness estimates ranged from 5.9% to 82% for different age groups of occupants. Results indicate that although occupants overall benefit from sitting in the rear seat compared to the right front seat, for all model year vehicles, the protective effect of the rear seat relative to that of the right front seat has decreased in the newer model year vehicles. The reduction in the effectiveness was 43.7% for unbelted occupants and 33.5% for belted occupants. Logistic regression analysis on NASS CDS data shows that vehicle model year has a significant effect (p-value = 0.0043) on increasing the risk of injury for belted rear seat occupants. Considering these results, protection of rear seat occupants deserves more attention from the automotive industry and government agencies.

  20. High risk pesticides in sugar beet protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šovljanski Radmila A.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available According to traits of pesticides permitted to use in sugar beet (oral percutaneus and inhalation toxicity, toxicity to wildlife, bees and aquatic organisms, re-entry interval, maximum number of treatments, effects on reproduction do not present health risk in sugar production/technology. However, the danger exists for workers by chronic exposure during the application, especially from pesticide being potential endocrine disruptors (EDS (fentin acetate, benomyl, endosulfan, methomyl, methidathion. EDS can cause sterility or decreased fertility, impaired development, birth defects of the reproductive tract and metabolic disorders. Authors recommend limited application of EDS pesticides (to limit the number of treatments to only one during the vegetation, replacement with pesticides with low risk to humans game and fishes, as well as mandatory submission of re-entry data for registration.

  1. High-risk pregnancy and the rheumatologist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soh, May Ching; Nelson-Piercy, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Rheumatologists are increasingly involved in the care of young women who, in the age of biologic therapy, are now gaining control of their rheumatic diseases and attempting pregnancy. With careful planning, most women with rheumatic diseases have successful pregnancies. This article focuses specifically on the highest-risk pregnancies and controversial areas. We discuss the women at risk of complications, the types of maternal and fetal complications, the treatments that can be used in pregnancy (and breastfeeding) and longer-term outcomes that could affect the mother. SLE, RA, ANCA-associated vasculitides, large vessel vasculitis (e.g. Takayasu's) and other CTDs (e.g. scleroderma) are among the conditions covered. The evidence and controversies regarding the recommendations for the use of biologics in pregnancy are discussed. The role of the rheumatologist in pregnancy planning and caring for the pregnant and post-partum woman as part of the multidisciplinary team is discussed.

  2. Association knowledge for fatal run-off-road crashes by Multiple Correspondence Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subasish Das

    2016-03-01

    Results of the MCA method can help researchers select the most effective crash countermeasures. Further work on the degree of association between the identified crash contributing factors can help safety management systems develop the most efficient crash reduction strategies.

  3. (Brown) adipose tissue associated metabolic dysfunction and risk of cardiovascular disease in high risk patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franssens, BT

    2016-01-01

    In this thesis it was shown that (brown) adipose tissue associated metabolic dysfunction increases the risk on development of cardiovascular disease in high risk patients. Quantity of adipose tissue is an important risk factor for adipose tissue dysfunction but functionality of adipose tissue not so

  4. How can we identify the high-risk patient?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankar, Ashwin; Beattie, W Scott; Wijeysundera, Duminda N

    2015-08-01

    Accurate and early identification of high-risk surgical patients allows for targeted use of perioperative monitoring and interventions that may improve their outcomes. This review summarizes current evidence on how information from the preoperative, operative, and immediate postoperative periods can help identify such individuals. Simple risk indices, such as the Revised Cardiac Risk Index or American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status scale, and online calculators allow risk to be estimated with moderate accuracy using readily available preoperative clinical information. Both specific specialized tests (i.e., cardiopulmonary exercise testing and cardiac stress testing) and promising novel biomarkers (i.e., troponins and natriuretic peptides) can help refine these risk estimates before surgery. Estimates of perioperative risk can be further informed by information acquired during the operative and immediate postoperative periods, such as risk indices (i.e., surgical Apgar score), individual risk factors (i.e., intraoperative hypotension), or postoperative biomarkers (i.e., troponins and natriuretic peptides). Preoperative clinical risk indices and risk calculators estimate surgical risk with moderate accuracy. Although novel biomarkers, specialized preoperative testing, and immediate postoperative risk indices show promise as methods to refine these risk estimates, more research is needed on how best to integrate risk information from these different sources.

  5. Calibration of safety performance function for crashes on inter-city four lane highways in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naveen Kumar ChikkaKrishna

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available There is a significant need to improve the highway safety during roadway planning, design and operations in developing countries like India. To receive appropriate consideration, safety needs to be dealt objectively within the transportation planning and highway design processes. Lack of available tools is a deterrent to quantify safety of a transportation facility during the planning or highway design process. The objective of this paper is to develop safety performance functions considering various elements involved in the planning, design and operation of a section on four-lane National Highway (NH-58 located in the state of Uttarakhand, India. The mixed traffic on Indian multilane highways comes with a lot of variability within, ranging from different vehicle types to different driver characteristics. This could result in variability in the effect of explanatory variables on crashes across locations. Hence, explanatory variables for highway segment safety analysis considered were geometric characteristics like curvature change rate, slope change rate, transverse slope and traffic characteristics in the form of average daily traffic, light vehicle traffic, light commercial vehicle traffic, heavy vehicle traffic, two-wheelers, non-motorised traffic volume and operating speed were analysed against dependent variable as crash count per 200 m per year. Safety performance functions involving the explanatory variables are calibrated to predict crash frequency using Poisson Weibull technique and crash types are predicted using ordered logit model. Model results suggest that increase in traffic volume leads to higher probability of crash risk and traffic safety is significantly distorted by higher curvature change rate values.

  6. Elite High Schools Breed Higher Risk of Addiction

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... html Elite High Schools Breed Higher Risk of Addiction: Study Rates are two to three times higher ... Privilege doesn't necessarily offer protection from drug addiction, new research suggests. Teens at elite U.S. high ...

  7. Toddlers at High Risk of Chemical Eye Burns

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... fullstory_160258.html Toddlers at High Risk of Chemical Eye Burns: Study Access to household cleaning products to blame, ... and 2 years have relatively high rates of chemical eye burns, with everyday cleaners a common cause, researchers say. ...

  8. High Blood Pressure, Afib and Your Risk of Stroke

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Peripheral Artery Disease Venous Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More High Blood Pressure, Afib and Your Risk of Stroke Updated:Sep ... have a stroke for the first time have high blood pressure . And an irregular atrial heart rhythm — a condition ...

  9. Comparison of crash rates and rear-end striking crashes among novice teens and experienced adults using the SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seacrist, Thomas; Belwadi, Aditya; Prabahar, Abhiti; Chamberlain, Samuel; Megariotis, James; Loeb, Helen

    2016-09-01

    Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death for teens. Previous teen and adult crash rates have been based upon fatal crashes, police-reported crashes, and estimated miles driven. Large-scale naturalistic driving studies offer the opportunity to compute crash rates using a reliable methodology to capture crashes and driving exposure. The Strategic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP2) Naturalistic Driving Study contains extensive real-world data on teen and adult driving. This article presents findings on the crash rates of novice teen and experienced adult drivers in naturalistic crashes. A subset from the SHRP2 database consisting of 539 crash events for novice teens (16-19 years, n = 549) and experienced adults (35-54 years, n = 591) was used. Onboard instrumentation such as scene cameras, accelerometers, and Global Positioning System logged time series data at 10 Hz. Scene videos were reviewed for all events to identify rear-end striking crashes. Dynamic variables such as acceleration and velocity were analyzed for rear-end striking events. Number of crashes, crash rates, rear-end striking crash severity, and rear-end striking impact velocity were compared between novice teens and experienced adults. Video review of the SHRP2 crashes identified significantly more crashes (P adult group. This yielded crash rates of 30.0 crashes per million miles driven for novice teens compared to 5.3 crashes per million miles driven for experienced adults. The crash rate ratio for teens vs. adults was 5.7. The rear-end striking crash rate was 13.5 and 1.8 per million miles driven for novice teens and experienced adults, respectively. The rear-end striking crash rate ratio for teens vs. adults was 7.5. The rear-end striking crash severity measured by the accelerometers was greater (P adult group (1.1 ± 0.4 g; median = 1.0 g), suggesting that teen crashes tend to be more serious than adult crashes. Increased rear-end striking impact velocity (P adults (3.3 ± 1.2

  10. Clinical options for women at high risk for breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, L C; Sellers, T A; Schaid, D J; Nayfield, S; Grant, C S; Bjoraker, J A; Woods, J; Couch, F

    1999-10-01

    Women at hereditary risk of breast cancer face a difficult clinical decision. Each of the options available to them has unique advantages and disadvantages that are summarized in Table 9. Many components enter a high-risk woman's decision: her objective risk of breast cancer; clinical features, such as the consistency of breast tissue and resultant ease of examination; breast density on mammography; personal characteristics, including her experience with cancer within her family; her role and [table: see text] responsibilities within her own nuclear family; her values and goals; her experiences with the medical system; and her subjective assessment of risk. It is generally believed that women significantly overestimate their risk of breast cancer. Thus, it is vital that a woman at risk have access to a genetic counselor who can provide accurate assessment of her risk. Women should be encouraged to take time to understand their risk level and the advantages and disadvantages of the options before them.

  11. High risk populations and HIV-1 infection in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tuo Fu ZHU; Chun Hui WANG; Peng LIN; Na HE

    2005-01-01

    China is currently experiencing one of the most rapidly expanding HIV epidemics in the world. Although the overall prevalence rate is still low, with a population of 1.3 billion, high-risk factors which have contributed to the HIV/AIDS epidemics worldwide continue to prevail in China, including a high rate of injecting drug use and needle sharing,commercial sex with low rates of condom use, and concurrent sex with both commercial sex workers and noncommercial casual or steady sex partners. In addition, there are increasing "double risk" populations overlapping drug users and sex workers, as well as increasing rates of STDs and HIV among high-risk populations. Sexual transmission,therefore, may serve as a bridge connecting high-risk populations with general populations. There is an urgent need to prevent the spread of HIV from these high-risk populations into the general population of China.

  12. Patients at High-Risk for Surgical Site Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueck, Krislynn M; Kao, Lillian S

    Surgical site infections (SSIs) are a significant healthcare quality issue, resulting in increased morbidity, disability, length of stay, resource utilization, and costs. Identification of high-risk patients may improve pre-operative counseling, inform resource utilization, and allow modifications in peri-operative management to optimize outcomes. Review of the pertinent English-language literature. High-risk surgical patients may be identified on the basis of individual risk factors or combinations of factors. In particular, statistical models and risk calculators may be useful in predicting infectious risks, both in general and for SSIs. These models differ in the number of variables; inclusion of pre-operative, intra-operative, or post-operative variables; ease of calculation; and specificity for particular procedures. Furthermore, the models differ in their accuracy in stratifying risk. Biomarkers may be a promising way to identify patients at high risk of infectious complications. Although multiple strategies exist for identifying surgical patients at high risk for SSIs, no one strategy is superior for all patients. Further efforts are necessary to determine if risk stratification in combination with risk modification can reduce SSIs in these patient populations.

  13. High-Risk and Low-Risk Human Papillomavirus and the Absolute Risk of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia or Cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Louise T; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Munk, Christian

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine the absolute risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or cervical cancer (CIN 3 or worse) after detection of low-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) and after a negative high-risk HPV test. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, consecutive liquid......-based cervical cytology samples were collected from women screened for cervical cancer in Copenhagen, Denmark, during 2002-2005. Samples were tested with a clinical test for 13 high-risk and five low-risk HPV types. The cohort (N=35,539; aged 14-90 years) was monitored in a nationwide pathology register for up...... cytology. Detection of low-risk HPV does not predict CIN 3 or worse. Cervical cancer screening should not include testing for low-risk HPV types. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II....

  14. A new access density definition and its correlation with crash rates by microscopic traffic simulation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Bing; Zhang, Yu; Lu, Linjun; Lu, Jian John

    2014-03-01

    Better access management can improve highway safety by reducing potential crashes and conflicts. To make adequate access management decisions, it is essential to understand the impact of different access types on roadway safety, usually represented by the crash rate of a roadway segment. The objective of this paper is to propose a new access density definition reflecting the impact of traffic speed variation of different access types. The traffic speed variation was obtained from a microscopic traffic simulation software package TSIS-CORSIM. A sample roadway Temple Terrace Highway was selected to perform traffic simulation. Access Weight was obtained from traffic speed variation, and access density was obtained from access weight. The proposed access density was then compared with the existing definition by analyzing their correlations with crash rates on one suburban street in Temple Terrace, Florida. The comparison demonstrates that crash rates are more highly correlated with the proposed access density than that in the previous study, which is helpful for Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), United States Department of Transportation (USDOT), and transportation consulting companies to regulate the construction, management and design of roadway segments.

  15. High Framingham risk score decreases quality of life in adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Yosaputra

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors, such as diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, and obesity tend to occur together in the general population. Increasing prevalence of multiple CVD risk factors has been related to increased risk of death from coronary heart disease and stroke. Studies have suggested that people with several risk factors of CVD may have impaired health-related quality of life. The objective of this study was to assess the association of CVD risk factors with quality of life (QOL among adults aged 40 to 65 years. A cross-sectional study was conducted involving 220 subjects 40 - 65 years of age at a health center. The CVD risk factors were assessed using the Framingham risk score that is the standard instrument for assessment of the risk of a first cardiac event. The risk factors assessed were age, smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol and high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations. QOL was assessed by means of the WHOQOL-BREF instrument that had been prevalidated. The results of the study showed that 28.2% of subjects were smokers, 56.4% had stage 1 hypertension, 42.8% high total cholesterol and 13.6% low HDL cholesterol. The high risk group amounted to 45.5% and 42.3% constitued an intermediate risk group. High CVD risk scores were significantly associated with a low QOL for all domains (physical, psychological, social and environment (p=0.000. Preventing or reducing the multiple CVD risk factors to improve QOL is necessary among adults.

  16. Effects of Manufacturing Process in Crash Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šašek J.

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This article describes an impact of a manufacturing, which can significantly change real parts behavior. The influence of technology process is neglected in regular simulations. However, advanced finite elements solvers make possible to involve themanufacturing process in final simulations. It brings distortions and initial distribution of stress and strain into simulations. The possibilities are demonstrated on a crash simulation of a simple box-beam, where stamping and welding processes and spring-back are considered. All mentioned operations are performed in Virtual Performance Solution. The effects of manufacturing process are discussed with a respect to common simulation practice at the end of the paper.

  17. Comparison of Multivariate Poisson lognormal spatial and temporal crash models to identify hot spots of intersections based on crash types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Wen; Gill, Gurdiljot Singh; Dasu, Ravi; Xie, Meiquan; Jia, Xudong; Zhou, Jiao

    2017-02-01

    Most of the studies are focused on the general crashes or total crash counts with considerably less research dedicated to different crash types. This study employs the Systemic approach for detection of hotspots and comprehensively cross-validates five multivariate models of crash type-based HSID methods which incorporate spatial and temporal random effects. It is anticipated that comparison of the crash estimation results of the five models would identify the impact of varied random effects on the HSID. The data over a ten year time period (2003-2012) were selected for analysis of a total 137 intersections in the City of Corona, California. The crash types collected in this study include: Rear-end, Head-on, Side-swipe, Broad-side, Hit object, and Others. Statistically significant correlations among crash outcomes for the heterogeneity error term were observed which clearly demonstrated their multivariate nature. Additionally, the spatial random effects revealed the correlations among neighboring intersections across crash types. Five cross-validation criteria which contains, Residual Sum of Squares, Kappa, Mean Absolute Deviation, Method Consistency Test, and Total Rank Difference, were applied to assess the performance of the five HSID methods at crash estimation. In terms of accumulated results which combined all crash types, the model with spatial random effects consistently outperformed the other competing models with a significant margin. However, the inclusion of spatial random effect in temporal models fell short of attaining the expected results. The overall observation from the model fitness and validation results failed to highlight any correlation among better model fitness and superior crash estimation.

  18. Sleepiness and Motor Vehicle Crashes in a Representative Sample of Portuguese Drivers: The Importance of Epidemiological Representative Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonçalves, M; Peralta, A R; Monteiro Ferreira, J; Guilleminault, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Sleepiness is considered to be a leading cause of crashes. Despite the huge amount of information collected in questionnaire studies, only some are based on representative samples of the population. Specifics of the populations studied hinder the generalization of these previous findings. For the Portuguese population, data from sleep-related car crashes/near misses and sleepiness while driving are missing. The objective of this study is to determine the prevalence of near-miss and nonfatal motor vehicle crashes related to sleepiness in a representative sample of Portuguese drivers. Structured phone interviews regarding sleepiness and sleep-related crashes and near misses, driving habits, demographic data, and sleep quality were conducted using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index and sleep apnea risk using the Berlin questionnaire. A multivariate regression analysis was used to determine the associations with sleepy driving (feeling sleepy or falling asleep while driving) and sleep-related near misses and crashes. Nine hundred subjects, representing the Portuguese population of drivers, were included; 3.1% acknowledged falling asleep while driving during the previous year and 0.67% recalled sleepiness-related crashes. Higher education, driving more than 15,000 km/year, driving more frequently between 12:00 a.m. and 6 a.m., fewer years of having a driver's license, less total sleep time per night, and higher scores on the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) were all independently associated with sleepy driving. Sleepiness-related crashes and near misses were associated only with falling asleep at the wheel in the previous year. Sleep-related crashes occurred more frequently in drivers who had also had sleep-related near misses. Portugal has lower self-reported sleepiness at the wheel and sleep-related near misses than most other countries where epidemiological data are available. Different population characteristics and cultural, social, and road safety specificities may

  19. Pilot age and error in air taxi crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebok, George W; Qiang, Yandong; Baker, Susan P; Li, Guohua

    2009-07-01

    The associations of pilot error with the type of flight operations and basic weather conditions are well documented. The correlation between pilot characteristics and error is less clear. This study aims to examine whether pilot age is associated with the prevalence and patterns of pilot error in air taxi crashes. Investigation reports from the National Transportation Safety Board for crashes involving non-scheduled Part 135 operations (i.e., air taxis) in the United States between 1983 and 2002 were reviewed to identify pilot error and other contributing factors. Crash circumstances and the presence and type of pilot error were analyzed in relation to pilot age using Chi-square tests. Of the 1751 air taxi crashes studied, 28% resulted from mechanical failure, 25% from loss of control at landing or takeoff, 7% from visual flight rule conditions into instrument meteorological conditions, 7% from fuel starvation, 5% from taxiing, and 28% from other causes. Crashes among older pilots were more likely to occur during the daytime rather than at night and off airport than on airport. The patterns of pilot error in air taxi crashes were similar across age groups. Of the errors identified, 27% were flawed decisions, 26% were inattentiveness, 23% mishandled aircraft kinetics, 15% mishandled wind and/or runway conditions, and 11% were others. Pilot age is associated with crash circumstances but not with the prevalence and patterns of pilot error in air taxi crashes. Lack of age-related differences in pilot error may be attributable to the "safe worker effect."

  20. Traffic crash liability determination: Danger and Dodge model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Sikui; Huang, Helai

    2016-10-01

    By proposing a systematic set of rules for traffic crash liability determination, this paper attempts to prove the feasibility and practicability of legal liability in handling traffic crashes. Two sequential elements are identified for crash occurrence, i.e., the occurrence of a dangerous situation and failure in dodging the dangerous situation. A Danger and Dodge model is subsequently established for liability determination in a traffic crash. By investigating the basic mechanism of a crash occurrence, the specific contents of causalties and the effect of the parties' acts in traffic crashes are specified. Based on the theories of social adequancy, the principle of reliance and the duty of care, the study further proposes to use the "peril" of a dangerous situation and the "possibility" of dodging the dangerous situation to appraise the effect of the parties' acts upon a crash occurrence, with the rule of the "pattern deciding effect". The proposed approach would be very helpful to the concreteness of the determination of liability in a traffic crash. Two case studies are presented for demonstration.

  1. Robust collaborative process interactions under system crash and network failures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Lei; Wombacher, Andreas; Ferreira Pires, Luis; van Sinderen, Marten J.; Chi, Chihung

    2013-01-01

    With the possibility of system crashes and network failures, the design of robust client/server interactions for collaborative process execution is a challenge. If a business process changes its state, it sends messages to the relevant processes to inform about this change. However, server crashes

  2. Numerical analyses of an aircraft crash on containment building

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sim, Jae Min; Kim, Seung Hyun; Chang, Yoon Suk [Kyunghee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The containment building is responsible to isolate and protect internal devices against external conditions like earthquake, hurricane and impact loading. It has also to protect leakage of radioactivity, like LOCA (Loss Of Coolant Accident), when severe accidents occurred. Meanwhile, social awareness such as terrorism has been increased globally after international aircraft crashes at World Trade Center and Pentagon. In this paper, FE (Finite Element) analyses according to variation of crash locations and speeds were carried out to examine the aircraft crash impact on a domestic containment building. In this paper, numerical analyses of aircraft crash on NPP's containment building were performed taking into account different locations and aircraft speeds. (1) Amounts of concrete failure were dependent on the crash locations and the connector was the most delicate location comparing to the dome and wall part. (2) Maximum stress values generated at the liner plate and rebars did not exceed their UTS values.

  3. A Precursor of Market Crashes

    CERN Document Server

    Kaizoji, T

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we quantitatively investigate the statistical properties of a statistical ensemble of stock prices. We focus attention on the real price defined as $ s = s(t)/s(0) $ where $ s(0) $ is the stock price for the initial time. We selected 3200 stocks traded in the Japanese Stock Exchange, and formed a statistical ensemble of daily real prices for each trading day in the 3-years period from January 4, 1999 to December 28, 2001, corresponding to the period of the {\\it internet Bubbles and the bursts} in the Japanese stock markets. We found that the tail of the complementary cumulative distribution function of the ensemble of the real prices in the high value of the price is well described by a power-law distribution, $ P(S>x) \\sim x^{-\\alpha} $, with an exponent that moves over time. Furthermore we found that as the power-law exponents $ \\alpha $ approached {\\it two}, the bubbles collapsed. It seems reasonable to suppose that this is a indication of bursting bubbles.

  4. Power laws and market crashes

    CERN Document Server

    Kaizoji, T

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the statistical properties of a statistical ensemble of stock prices. We selected 1200 stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and formed a statistical ensemble of daily stock prices for each trading day in the 3-year period from January 4, 1999 to December 28, 2001, corresponding to the period of the forming of the internet bubble in Japn, and its bursting in the Japanese stock market. We found that the tail of the complementary cumulative distribution function of the ensemble of stock prices in the high value of the price is well described by a power-law distribution, $ P(S>x) \\sim x^{-\\alpha} $, with an exponent that moves in the range of $ 1.09 < \\alpha < 1.27 $. Furthermore, we found that as the power-law exponents $ \\alpha $ approached unity, the bubbles collapsed. This suggests that Zipf's law for stock prices is a sign that bubbles are going to burst. PACS: 89.65.Gh

  5. A social work study high-risk behavior among teenagers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Reza Iravani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Teenagers are believed the people who are supposed to build the world's future. High-risk behaviors such as addiction to drugs, smoking cigarettes, sex, etc. could significantly hurts teenagers and there must be some supporting programs to reduce these issues as much as possible. This paper performs an empirical investigation to study the different factors influencing high- risk behavior among teenagers who live in a city of Esfahan, Iran. The proposed study designs a questionnaire and distribute between two groups of female and male teenagers. The results indicate that while there is a meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and average high school marks among male students there is no meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and high school grades among female students. The results also indicate that there is a meaningful difference between gender and high-risk behavior. The season of birth for female and male students is another important factor for having high-risk behaviors. While the order of birth plays an important role among male students, the order of birth is not an important factor among female teenagers. Finally, the results indicate that teenagers' parental financial affordability plays a vital role on both female and male teenagers.

  6. What the 2008 stock market crash means for retirement security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butrica, Barbara A; Smith, Karen E; Toder, Eric J

    2010-10-01

    The 2008 stock market crash raises concerns about retirement security, especially since the increased prevalence of 401(k) and similar retirement saving plans means that more Americans are now stakeholders in the equity market than in the past. Using a dynamic microsimulation model, this paper explores the ability of alternate future stock market scenarios to restore retirement assets. The authors find that those near retirement could fare the worst because they have no time to recoup their losses. Mid-career workers could fare better because they have more time to rebuild their wealth. They may even gain income if they buy stocks at low prices and get above-average rates of return. High-income groups will be the most affected because they are most likely to have financial assets and to be invested in the stock market.

  7. A multitask scientific investigation resolved an unusual road crash case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rella, R; Sturaro, A; Casellato, U; Zernar, E

    2003-01-01

    Crime or accident scenes are sometimes almost unbelievable. Elements of the scene can be so strange that a reconstruction of the event is almost impossible. What can the investigator do in such a case? The only solution is to collect all the evidence and samples, even if they appear useless, and send them to specialised laboratories. Scientific data are held in high esteem by the law and court proceedings consequent on crashes will almost certainly require analytical results of one sort or another to be presented as evidence. The case presented is one of those strange and almost unbelievable cases with little physical evidence, no eyewitnesses and the almost fortuitous collection of one unique, incredibly small, sample. The prosecutor's decision to instruct unusual but appropriate experts turned out to be successful.

  8. A joint econometric analysis of seat belt use and crash-related injury severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eluru, Naveen; Bhat, Chandra R

    2007-09-01

    This paper formulates a comprehensive econometric structure that recognizes two important issues in crash-related injury severity analysis. First, the impact of a factor on injury severity may be moderated by various observed and unobserved variables specific to an individual or to a crash. Second, seat belt use is likely to be endogenous to injury severity. That is, it is possible that intrinsically unsafe drivers do not wear seat belts and are the ones likely to be involved in high injury severity crashes because of their unsafe driving habits. The preceding issues are considered in the current research effort through the development of a comprehensive model of seat belt use and injury severity that takes the form of a joint correlated random coefficients binary-ordered response system. To our knowledge, this is the first instance of such a model formulation and application not only in the safety analysis literature, but in the econometrics literature in general. The empirical analysis is based on the 2003 General Estimates System (GES) data base. Several types of variables are considered to explain seat belt use and injury severity levels, including driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, roadway design attributes, environmental factors, and crash characteristics. The results, in addition to confirming the effects of various explanatory variables, also highlight the importance of (a) considering the moderating effects of unobserved individual/crash-related factors on the determinants of injury severity and (b) seat belt use endogeneity. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that seat belt non-users, when apprehended in the act, should perhaps be subjected to both a fine (to increase the chances that they wear seat belts) as well as mandatory enrollment in a defensive driving course (to attempt to change their aggressive driving behaviors).

  9. An empirical assessment of fixed and random parameter logit models using crash- and non-crash-specific injury data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ch Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis; Mannering, Fred L

    2011-05-01

    Traditional crash-severity modeling uses detailed data gathered after a crash has occurred (number of vehicles involved, age of occupants, weather conditions at the time of the crash, types of vehicles involved, crash type, occupant restraint use, airbag deployment, etc.) to predict the level of occupant injury. However, for prediction purposes, the use of such detailed data makes assessing the impact of alternate safety countermeasures exceedingly difficult due to the large number of variables that need to be known. Using 5-year data from interstate highways in Indiana, this study explores fixed and random parameter statistical models using detailed crash-specific data and data that include the injury outcome of the crash but not other detailed crash-specific data (only more general data are used such as roadway geometrics, pavement condition and general weather and traffic characteristics). The analysis shows that, while models that do not use detailed crash-specific data do not perform as well as those that do, random parameter models using less detailed data still can provide a reasonable level of accuracy.

  10. CrashEd – A live immersive, learning experience embedding STEM subjects in a realistic, interactive crime scene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie L. Bassford

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Interactive experiences are rapidly becoming popular via the surge of ‘escape rooms’; part game and part theatre, the ‘escape’ experience is exploding globally, having gone from zero offered at the outset of 2010 to at least 2800 different experiences available worldwide today. CrashEd is an interactive learning experience that parallels many of the attractions of an escape room – it incorporates a staged, realistic ‘crime scene’ and invites participants to work together to gather forensic evidence and question a witness in order to solve a crime, all whilst competing against a ticking clock. An animation can enhance reality and engage with cognitive processes to help learning; in CrashEd, it is the last piece of the jigsaw that consolidates the students’ incremental acquisition of knowledge to tie together the pieces of evidence, identify a suspect and ultimately solve the crime. This article presents the background to CrashEd and an overview of how a timely placed animation at the end of an educational experience can enhance learning. The lessons learned, from delivering bespoke versions of the experience to different demographic groups, are discussed. The article will consider the successes and challenges raised by the collaborative project, future developments and potential wider implications of the development of CrashEd.

  11. POPULATION CHARACTERS IN HIGH RISK PEDIGREES OF NASOPHARYNGEAL CARCINOMA (NPC)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Teng-bo; ZHANG Jin-ming; HUANG Hui-ming; LI Jing-lian; HUANG Guo-dong

    1999-01-01

    Objective: To investigate population characters in high risk pedigrees of NPC in Guangdong area and to explore the effect each other between tumor genetic susceptibility and infection of EB virus on pathogenic mechanism. Methods: Pedigree investigation, examination of DNA fingerprint, multi-antibodies of EB virus and nasopharyngeal cavity were done for all of the members in each high risk pedigree. Results: High positive rate of EBV VCA/IgA (23.22%), high percentage of high risk population of NPC (6.53-10.40%),high detected rate of malignant tumor (9552.59/105), and high detected rate of NPC (8464.32/105) were discovered and NPC was most common in first degree relative of a pedigree. Conclusion: Tumor genetic susceptibility,infection of EB virus might play a role in coordination of reinforced effect on occurrence of NPC.

  12. Communicating about risk: strategies for situations where public concern is high but the risk is low

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire Hooker

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we summarise research that identifies best practice for communicating about hazards where the risk is low but public concern is high. We apply Peter Sandman’s ‘risk = hazard + outrage’ formulation to these risks, and review factors associated with the amplification of risk signals. We discuss the structures that determine the success of risk communication strategies, such as the capacity for early communication to ‘capture’ the dominant representation of risk issues, the importance of communicating uncertainty, and the usefulness of engaging with communities. We argue that, when facing trade-offs in probable outcomes from communication, it is always best to choose strategies that maintain or build trust, even at the cost of initial overreactions. We discuss these features of successful risk communication in relation to a range of specific examples, particularly opposition to community water fluoridation, Ebola, and routine childhood immunisation.

  13. Treating Patients with High-Risk Smoldering Myeloma

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this phase III clinical trial, patients with smoldering myeloma classified as high risk for progression will be randomly assigned to undergo standard observation or six 4-week courses of treatment with the drug lenalidomide.

  14. DASH - Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS): High School

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 1991-2015. High School Dataset. The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six categories of priority health behaviors among youth and young...

  15. Risk-taking behaviour of Cape Peninsula high school students ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk-taking behaviour of Cape Peninsula high school students. ... PROMOTING ACCESS TO AFRICAN RESEARCH. AFRICAN ... South African Medical Journal ... 7 340 students from 16 schools in the three major ed ucation departments.

  16. High Pain Tolerance Tied to 'Silent' Heart Attack Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_162666.html High Pain Tolerance Tied to 'Silent' Heart Attack Risk Unusual symptoms ... is. But the new findings suggest that pain tolerance might be a factor. Using a standard test ...

  17. Suicide Risk Especially High for U.S. Farmers

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_166800.html Suicide Risk Especially High for U.S. Farmers Other occupations ... Two decades after the U.S. farm crisis, the suicide rate among American farmers remains much higher than ...

  18. review article risk factors, threats and prevention of highly ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Oboro VO

    2006-02-09

    Feb 9, 2006 ... mixing vehicle for re-assortment of the virus. The domestic ducks get ... importation of poultry and poultry products from high risk countries, effective disease surveillance ..... therefore an extremely important safety measure to ...

  19. Beijing Encourages High-Risk Groups to Undertake AIDS Test

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2004-01-01

    High-risk groups in Beijing, China's capital city, such as sex workers, drug-takers who share needles and gay communities are being encouraged to take voluntary counseling and tests (VCT) as part of an effort to stem the spread of AIDS. Tens of thousands of flyers have been distributed to disease control centers at district levels, and they will be handed to high-risk individuals by AIDS workers and volunteers over the next few weeks.

  20. Individuals at high risk for suicide are categorically distinct from those at low risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witte, Tracy K; Holm-Denoma, Jill M; Zuromski, Kelly L; Gauthier, Jami M; Ruscio, John

    2017-04-01

    Although suicide risk is often thought of as existing on a graded continuum, its latent structure (i.e., whether it is categorical or dimensional) has not been empirically determined. Knowledge about the latent structure of suicide risk holds implications for suicide risk assessments, targeted suicide interventions, and suicide research. Our objectives were to determine whether suicide risk can best be understood as a categorical (i.e., taxonic) or dimensional entity, and to validate the nature of any obtained taxon. We conducted taxometric analyses of cross-sectional, baseline data from 16 independent studies funded by the Military Suicide Research Consortium. Participants (N = 1,773) primarily consisted of military personnel, and most had a history of suicidal behavior. The Comparison Curve Fit Index values for MAMBAC (.85), MAXEIG (.77), and L-Mode (.62) all strongly supported categorical (i.e., taxonic) structure for suicide risk. Follow-up analyses comparing the taxon and complement groups revealed substantially larger effect sizes for the variables most conceptually similar to suicide risk compared with variables indicating general distress. Pending replication and establishment of the predictive validity of the taxon, our results suggest the need for a fundamental shift in suicide risk assessment, treatment, and research. Specifically, suicide risk assessments could be shortened without sacrificing validity, the most potent suicide interventions could be allocated to individuals in the high-risk group, and research should generally be conducted on individuals in the high-risk group. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. Analysis of Traffic Crashes Involving Pedestrians Using Big Data: Investigation of Contributing Factors and Identification of Hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Kun; Ozbay, Kaan; Kurkcu, Abdullah; Yang, Hong

    2017-08-01

    This study aims to explore the potential of using big data in advancing the pedestrian risk analysis including the investigation of contributing factors and the hotspot identification. Massive amounts of data of Manhattan from a variety of sources were collected, integrated, and processed, including taxi trips, subway turnstile counts, traffic volumes, road network, land use, sociodemographic, and social media data. The whole study area was uniformly split into grid cells as the basic geographical units of analysis. The cell-structured framework makes it easy to incorporate rich and diversified data into risk analysis. The cost of each crash, weighted by injury severity, was assigned to the cells based on the relative distance to the crash site using a kernel density function. A tobit model was developed to relate grid-cell-specific contributing factors to crash costs that are left-censored at zero. The potential for safety improvement (PSI) that could be obtained by using the actual crash cost minus the cost of "similar" sites estimated by the tobit model was used as a measure to identify and rank pedestrian crash hotspots. The proposed hotspot identification method takes into account two important factors that are generally ignored, i.e., injury severity and effects of exposure indicators. Big data, on the one hand, enable more precise estimation of the effects of risk factors by providing richer data for modeling, and on the other hand, enable large-scale hotspot identification with higher resolution than conventional methods based on census tracts or traffic analysis zones. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Is vehicle automation enough to prevent crashes? Role of traffic operations in automated driving environments for traffic safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Eunbi; Oh, Cheol; Lee, Seolyoung

    2017-07-01

    Automated driving systems (ADSs) are expected to prevent traffic accidents caused by driver carelessness on freeways. There is no doubt regarding this safety benefit if all vehicles in the transportation system were equipped with ADSs; however, it is implausible to expect that ADSs will reach 100% market penetration rate (MPR) in the near future. Therefore, the following question arises: 'Can ADSs, which consider only situations in the vicinity of an equipped vehicle, really contribute to a significant reduction in traffic accidents?' To address this issue, the interactions between equipped and unequipped vehicles must be investigated, which is the purpose of this study. This study evaluated traffic safety at different MPRs based on a proposed index to represent the overall rear-end crash risk of the traffic stream. Two approaches were evaluated for adjusting longitudinal vehicle maneuvers: vehicle safety-based maneuvering (VSM), which considers the crash risk of an equipped vehicle and its neighboring vehicles, and traffic safety-based maneuvering (TSM), which considers the overall crash risk in the traffic stream. TSM assumes that traffic operational agencies are able to monitor all the vehicles and to intervene in vehicle maneuvering. An optimization process, which attempts to obtain vehicle maneuvering control parameters to minimize the overall crash risk, is integrated into the proposed evaluation framework. The main purpose of employing the optimization process for vehicle maneuvering in this study is to identify opportunities to improve traffic safety through effective traffic management rather than developing a vehicle control algorithm that can be implemented in practice. The microscopic traffic simulator VISSIM was used to simulate the freeway traffic stream and to conduct systematic evaluations based on the proposed methodology. Both TSM and VSM achieved significant reductions in the potential for rear-end crashes. However, TSM obtained much greater

  3. Gasoline prices and traffic crashes in Alabama, 1999-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi, Guangqing; McClure, Timothy E; Brown, David B

    2012-09-01

    The price of gasoline has been found to be negatively associated with traffic crashes in a limited number of studies. However, most of the studies have focused either on fatal crashes only or on all crashes but measured over a very short time period. In this study, we examine gasoline price effects on all traffic crashes by demographic groups in the state of Alabama from 1999 to 2009. Using negative binomial regression techniques to examine monthly data from 1999 to 2009 in the state of Alabama, we estimate the effects of changes in gasoline price on changes in automobile crashes. We also examine how these effects differ by age group (16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-64, and 65+), gender (male and female), and race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic). The results show that gasoline prices have both short-term and long-term effects on reducing total traffic crashes and crashes of each age, gender, and race/ethnicity group (except Hispanic due to data limitations). The short-term and long-term effects are not statistically different for each individual demographic group. Gasoline prices have a stronger effect in reducing crashes involving drivers aged 16 to 20 than crashes involving drivers aged 31 to 64 and 65+ in the short term; the effects, however, are not statistically different across other demographic groups. Although gasoline price increases are not favored, our findings show that gasoline price increases (or decreases) are associated with reductions (or increases) in the incidence of traffic crashes. If gasoline prices had remained at the 1999 level of $1.41 from 1999 to 2009, applying the estimated elasticities would result in a predicted increase in total crashes of 169,492 (or 11.3%) from the actual number of crashes. If decision makers wish to reduce traffic crashes, increasing gasoline taxes is a possible option-however, doing so would increase travel costs and lead to equity concerns. These findings may help to shape transportation

  4. Review of screening for pancreatic cancer in high risk individuals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Alina Stoita; Ian D Penman; David B Williams

    2011-01-01

    Pancreatic cancer is difficult to diagnose at an early stage and is associated with a very poor survival. Ten percent of pancreatic cancers result from genetic susceptibility and/or familial aggregation. Individuals from families with multiple affected first-degree relatives and those with a known cancer-causing genetic mutation have been shown to be at much higher risk of developing pancreatic cancer. Recent efforts have focused on detecting disease at an earlier stage to improve survival in these high-risk groups. This article reviews high-risk groups, screening methods, and current screening programs and their results.

  5. Review of screening for pancreatic cancer in high risk individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoita, Alina; Penman, Ian D; Williams, David B

    2011-05-21

    Pancreatic cancer is difficult to diagnose at an early stage and is associated with a very poor survival. Ten percent of pancreatic cancers result from genetic susceptibility and/or familial aggregation. Individuals from families with multiple affected first-degree relatives and those with a known cancer-causing genetic mutation have been shown to be at much higher risk of developing pancreatic cancer. Recent efforts have focused on detecting disease at an earlier stage to improve survival in these high-risk groups. This article reviews high-risk groups, screening methods, and current screening programs and their results.

  6. High Risk for Thoracotomy but not Thoracoscopic Lobectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donahoe, Laura L; de Valence, Moira; Atenafu, Eshetu G; Hanna, Waël C; Waddell, Thomas K; Pierre, Andrew F; Yasufuku, Kazuhiro; de Perrot, Marc; Cypel, Marcelo; Keshavjee, Shaf; Darling, Gail E

    2017-06-01

    Pulmonary lobectomy is the standard of care for resection of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Patients with compromised lung function who are considered high risk may be denied surgical treatment; thus, proper identification of those truly at high risk is critical. Video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS) may reduce the operative risk. This study reviews our institutional experience of pulmonary lobectomy by open thoracotomy or VATS techniques in patients deemed to be high risk. A retrospective review of an institutional database was performed for all patients undergoing lobectomy from 2002 to 2010. Patients were grouped into high-risk (HR) and standard-risk (SR) cohorts according to the American College of Surgeons Oncology Group Z4099/Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 1021 criteria. From 2002 to 2010, 72 HR and 536 SR patients underwent lobectomy. Mean age was 73 years for HR and 66 years for SR (p risk for open lobectomy a feasible procedure, with no difference in overall survival compared with SR patients, and decreased morbidity compared with open lobectomy. VATS lobectomy should be considered for patients who historically may not have been considered for surgical resection. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Clinical risk factors for gestational hypertensive disorders in pregnant women at high risk for developing preeclampsia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wong, Tsz Y.; Groen, Henk; Faas, Marijke M.; van Pampus, Maria G.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: To evaluate clinical risk factors for the development of gestational hypertensive disorders in a group of pregnant women at high risk for developing preeclampsia. Secondly we evaluated the incidence and recurrence rate of preeclampsia and pregnancy-induced hypertension. Study design: A

  8. Clinical risk factors for gestational hypertensive disorders in pregnant women at high risk for developing preeclampsia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wong, Tsz Y.; Groen, Henk; Faas, Marijke M.; van Pampus, Maria G.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: To evaluate clinical risk factors for the development of gestational hypertensive disorders in a group of pregnant women at high risk for developing preeclampsia. Secondly we evaluated the incidence and recurrence rate of preeclampsia and pregnancy-induced hypertension. Study design: A p

  9. Who Takes Risks in High-Risk Sports? A Typological Personality Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castanier, Carole; Le Scanff, Christine; Woodman, Tim

    2010-01-01

    We investigated the risk-taking behaviors of 302 men involved in high-risk sports (downhill skiing, mountaineering, rock climbing, paragliding, or skydiving). The sportsmen were classified using a typological approach to personality based on eight personality types, which were constructed from combinations of neuroticism, extraversion, and…

  10. On risk, leverage and banks: do highly leveraged banks take on excessive risk?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koudstaal, M.; van Wijnbergen, S.

    2012-01-01

    This paper deals with the relation between excessive risk taking and capital structure in banks. Examining a quarterly dataset of U.S. banks between 1993 and 2010, we find that equity is valued higher when more risky portfolios are chosen when leverage is high, and that more risk taking has a negati

  11. Predicting reattendance at a high-risk breast cancer clinic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormseth, Sarah R; Wellisch, David K; Aréchiga, Adam E; Draper, Taylor L

    2015-10-01

    The research about follow-up patterns of women attending high-risk breast-cancer clinics is sparse. This study sought to profile daughters of breast-cancer patients who are likely to return versus those unlikely to return for follow-up care in a high-risk clinic. Our investigation included 131 patients attending the UCLA Revlon Breast Center High Risk Clinic. Predictor variables included age, computed breast-cancer risk, participants' perceived personal risk, clinically significant depressive symptomatology (CES-D score ≥ 16), current level of anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory), and survival status of participants' mothers (survived or passed away from breast cancer). A greater likelihood of reattendance was associated with older age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.07, p = 0.004), computed breast-cancer risk (AOR = 1.10, p = 0.017), absence of depressive symptomatology (AOR = 0.25, p = 0.009), past psychiatric diagnosis (AOR = 3.14, p = 0.029), and maternal loss to breast cancer (AOR = 2.59, p = 0.034). Also, an interaction was found between mother's survival and perceived risk (p = 0.019), such that reattendance was associated with higher perceived risk among participants whose mothers survived (AOR = 1.04, p = 0.002), but not those whose mothers died (AOR = 0.99, p = 0.685). Furthermore, a nonlinear inverted "U" relationship was observed between state anxiety and reattendance (p = 0.037); participants with moderate anxiety were more likely to reattend than those with low or high anxiety levels. Demographic, medical, and psychosocial factors were found to be independently associated with reattendance to a high-risk breast-cancer clinic. Explication of the profiles of women who may or may not reattend may serve to inform the development and implementation of interventions to increase the likelihood of follow-up care.

  12. A school-based study of adolescent all-terrain vehicle exposure, safety behaviors, and crash experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennissen, Charles A; Harland, Karisa K; Wetjen, Kristel; Peck, Jeffrey; Hoogerwerf, Pam; Denning, Gerene M

    2014-07-01

    More youth are killed every year in the United States in all-terrain vehicle (ATV) crashes than on bicycles, and since 2001, one-fifth of all ATV fatalities have involved victims aged 15 years or younger. Effectively preventing pediatric ATV-related deaths and injuries requires knowledge about youth riding practices. Our objective was to examine ATV use, crash prevalence, and riding behaviors among adolescent students in a rural state. We administered a cross-sectional survey to 4,684 youths aged 11 to 16 years at 30 schools across Iowa from November 2010 to April 2013. Descriptive and comparative analyses were performed. Regardless of rurality, at least 75% of students reported having been on an ATV, with 38% of those riding daily or weekly. Among ATV riders, 57% had been in a crash. Most riders engaged in risky behaviors, including riding with passengers (92%), on public roads (81%), or without a helmet (64%). Almost 60% reported engaging in all 3 behaviors; only 2% engaged in none. Multivariable modeling revealed male youth, students riding daily/weekly, and those reporting both riding on public roads and with passengers were 1.61 (95% CI, 1.36-1.91), 3.73 (95% CI, 3.10-4.50), and 3.24 (95% CI, 2.09-5.04) times more likely to report a crash, respectively. Three-fourths of youths surveyed were exposed to ATVs. The majority of riders had engaged in unsafe behaviors and experienced a crash. Given this widespread use and the potentially considerable morbidity of pediatric ATV crashes, prevention efforts, including anticipatory guidance by primary care clinicians serving families at risk, should be a higher priority. © 2014 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

  13. Application of a random effects negative binomial model to examine tram-involved crash frequency on route sections in Melbourne, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naznin, Farhana; Currie, Graham; Logan, David; Sarvi, Majid

    2016-07-01

    Safety is a key concern in the design, operation and development of light rail systems including trams or streetcars as they impose crash risks on road users in terms of crash frequency and severity. The aim of this study is to identify key traffic, transit and route factors that influence tram-involved crash frequencies along tram route sections in Melbourne. A random effects negative binomial (RENB) regression model was developed to analyze crash frequency data obtained from Yarra Trams, the tram operator in Melbourne. The RENB modelling approach can account for spatial and temporal variations within observation groups in panel count data structures by assuming that group specific effects are randomly distributed across locations. The results identify many significant factors effecting tram-involved crash frequency including tram service frequency (2.71), tram stop spacing (-0.42), tram route section length (0.31), tram signal priority (-0.25), general traffic volume (0.18), tram lane priority (-0.15) and ratio of platform tram stops (-0.09). Findings provide useful insights on route section level tram-involved crashes in an urban tram or streetcar operating environment. The method described represents a useful planning tool for transit agencies hoping to improve safety performance.

  14. Non-linear Finite Element Analysis for Bus High-speed Crashing Performance%客车高速碰撞性能的非线性有限元研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林繁国; 王昭均; 屈贤

    2015-01-01

    根据国家车辆高速碰撞法规要求,利用Hypermesh软件建立客车正面碰撞有限元模型,并基于Ls-Dyna求解器对客车正面撞击速度为50km/h进行数值仿真,得到了整车变形情况、碰撞力曲线、整车加速度曲线和前围板侵入量,这些数据对客车的结构设计具有重要参考价值。%According to the national vehicle speed collision regulations, this paper utilized Hypermesh software to establish a ifnite element model of the mini bus for crashing, and the ANSYS/Ls-Dyna solver was used for the numerical simulation of the bus under the velocity condition as 50 km/h, got the vehicle deformation , the curve of collision force , the curve of vehicle acceleration and the intrusion of dash panel,these data have important reference value for the structural design of passenger cars.

  15. Numerical simulation of aircraft crash on nuclear containment structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iqbal, M.A., E-mail: iqbalfce@iitr.ernet.in [Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee 247667 (India); Rai, S.; Sadique, M.R.; Bhargava, P. [Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee 247667 (India)

    2012-02-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The deformation was more localised at the center of cylindrical portion. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The peak deflection at the junction of dome and cylinder was found to be 67 mm. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The peak deflection at midpoint of the cylindrical portion was found to be 88.9 mm. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The strain rate was found to be an important parameter to effect the deformation. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The model without strain rate and 290 s{sup -1} strain rate predicted very high deformations. - Abstract: Numerical simulations were carried with ABAQUS/Explicit finite element code in order to predict the response of BWR Mark III type nuclear containment against Boeing 707-320 aircraft crash. The load of the aircraft was applied using and force history curve. The damaged plasticity model was used to predict the behavior of concrete while the Johnson-Cook elasto-viscoplastic material model was used to incorporate the behavior of steel reinforcement. The crash was considered to occur at two different locations i.e., the midpoint of the cylindrical portion and the junction of dome and cylinder. The midpoint of the cylindrical portion experienced more deformation. The strain rate in the material model was varied and found to have a significant effect on the response of containment. The results of the present investigation were compared with those of the studies available in literature and a close agreement with the previous results was found in terms of maximum target deformation.

  16. [Deep sea trip of the ship crash Northern Force fleet].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ushakov, I B; Bubeev, Iu A; Mazaĭkin, D N; Pisarev, A A

    2008-07-01

    A long-termed navy march of crash shupborn group of Northern Navy became a sign-oriented event in the life of the Armed Forces. After more then 10 years cessation this march signed recommencement of permanent Russia navy attendance in strategically important areas of the World Ocean. The authors highlight work of military-navy specialists in conditions of this march. The most important peculiarity of this march was participation of a hard aircraft carrier "Navy Admiral of the Soviet Union N.G.Kuznetsov". Activity of aircraft staff in carrying out the boardings and the deck starts requires the highest mobilization of all psycho-physiological resources. There was effectuated a complex medical-psychophysiological research of functional condition of aircraft and engineer staff of the group during the service. Also there was effectuated an operative recovery of functional condition among sailors and officers of the ship staff. Method of neuronsemantic diagnostics of psychological disadaptation and suicide risk was used during the analyze of groups of risk. The results of the analyze permitted to educe main psychotraumatizing factors, to form recommendations on psycho-correction, organization-educative measures taking into account individual peculiarities of motivation sphere and cognitive sensitivity. There were effectuated different trainings of moralities, communicativeness, strategy of negotiation and stress-managment in cooperation with the psychologist of the ship.

  17. Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tilburt Jon C

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92% used an observational design and focused on women (70% with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although

  18. Gender and Age Differences among Teen Drivers in Fatal Crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swedler, David I; Bowman, Stephen M; Baker, Susan P

    2012-01-01

    To identify age and gender differences among teen drivers in fatal crashes, we analyzed FARS data for 14,026crashes during 2007-2009. Compared with female teenagers, crashes of male teenagers were significantly more likely to involve BACs of 0.08% or more (21% vs. 12%), speeding (38% vs. 25%), reckless driving (17% vs. 14%), night driving (41% vs. 36%) and felony crashes (hit-and-run, homicide, or manslaughter) (8% vs. 6%) (all χ(2) pteens to involve speeding or reckless driving. Crashes of drivers with BACs of 0.08% or higher increased with age in both genders. Some age effects differed by gender: for example, the proportion of crashes of female teens that involved speeding dropped from 38% to 22% between ages 15 and 19, while for males about 38% of crashes at each age involved speeding. The gender and age differences observed in teen drivers suggest opportunities for targeted driver training - for example, simulator training modules specifically tailored for male or female teenagers. Technology-based tools could also be developed to help parents to focus on the reckless driving tendencies of their sons. Insurance companies should consider ways to incentivize young males to drive more responsibly.

  19. Impact of traffic states on freeway crash involvement rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, Hwasoo; Jang, Kitae; Skabardonis, Alexander; Kang, Seungmo

    2013-01-01

    Freeway traffic accidents are complicated events that are influenced by multiple factors including roadway geometry, drivers' behavior, traffic conditions and environmental factors. Among the various factors, crash occurrence on freeways is supposed to be strongly influenced by the traffic states representing driving situations that are changed by road geometry and cause the change of drivers' behavior. This paper proposes a methodology to investigate the relationship between traffic states and crash involvements on the freeway. First, we defined section-based traffic states: free flow (FF), back of queue (BQ), bottleneck front (BN) and congestion (CT) according to their distinctive patterns; and traffic states of each freeway section are determined based on actual measurements of traffic data from upstream and downstream ends of the section. Next, freeway crash data are integrated with the traffic states of a freeway section using upstream and downstream traffic measurements. As an illustrative study to show the applicability, we applied the proposed method on a 32-mile section of I-880 freeway. By integrating freeway crash occurrence and traffic data over a three-year period, we obtained the crash involvement rate for each traffic state. The results show that crash involvement rate in BN, BQ, and CT states are approximately 5 times higher than the one in FF. The proposed method shows promise to be used for various safety performance measurement including hot spot identification and prediction of the number of crash involvements on freeway sections.

  20. Overview of the Transport Rotorcraft Airframe Crash Testbed (TRACT) Full Scale Crash Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annett, Martin; Littell, Justin

    2015-01-01

    The Transport Rotorcraft Airframe Crash Testbed (TRACT) full-scale tests were performed at NASA Langley Research Center's Landing and Impact Research Facility in 2013 and 2014. Two CH-46E airframes were impacted at 33-ft/s forward and 25-ft/s vertical combined velocities onto soft soil, which represents a severe, but potentially survivable impact scenario. TRACT 1 provided a baseline set of responses, while TRACT 2 included retrofits with composite subfloors and other crash system improvements based on TRACT 1. For TRACT 2, a total of 18 unique experiments were conducted to evaluate Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATD) responses, seat and restraint performance, cargo restraint effectiveness, patient litter behavior, and activation of emergency locator transmitters and crash sensors. Combinations of Hybrid II, Hybrid III, and ES-2 ATDs were placed in forward and side facing seats and occupant results were compared against injury criteria. The structural response of the airframe was assessed based on accelerometers located throughout the airframe and using three-dimensional photogrammetric techniques. Analysis of the photogrammetric data indicated regions of maximum deflection and permanent deformation. The response of TRACT 2 was noticeably different in the horizontal direction due to changes in the cabin configuration and soil surface, with higher acceleration and damage occurring in the cabin. Loads from ATDs in energy absorbing seats and restraints were within injury limits. Severe injury was likely for ATDs in forward facing passenger seats.

  1. Bayesian log-periodic model for financial crashes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Knapik, Oskar

    2014-01-01

    part of the study, we analyze a well-known example of financial bubble – the S&P 500 1987 crash – to show the usefulness of the three methods under consideration and crashes of Merval-94, Bovespa-97, IPCMX-94, Hang Seng-97 using the simplest method. The novelty of this research is that the Bayesian......This paper introduces a Bayesian approach in econophysics literature about financial bubbles in order to estimate the most probable time for a financial crash to occur. To this end, we propose using noninformative prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions. Since these distributions...

  2. Roles of Motorcycle Type and Protective Clothing in Motorcycle Crash Injuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Ozgür Erdogan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The aims of this study were to identify subgroups of motorcyclists with a higher accident risk and evaluate the efficiency of protective clothing for preventing injuries. Methods. A 1-year prospective study of motorcycle crashes was conducted beginning in June 2012. Participants were patients involved in motorcycle crashes and admitted to our emergency department. Results. A total of 226 patients were included in the study. In total, 174 patients were involved in crashes with light motorcycles. Patients involved in a motorcycle accident without a helmet had a higher incidence of head and maxillofacial trauma. Motorcycle jackets were not protective for systemic injuries (P>0.05 or upper extremity fractures (P>0.05. Motorcycle pants (P>0.05 and motorcycle shoes (P>0.05 were not protective against leg and foot fractures. However, motorcycle protective clothes were protective against soft-tissue injuries (P=0.001. Conclusion. Riders of heavy motorcycles rode more safely than riders of light motorcycles. Light motorcycle riders were the most vulnerable and comprised the largest percentage of motorcyclists. Helmets may be effective for preventing head and facial injuries. Other protective clothes were not effective against fractures or systemic injuries.

  3. Motorcycle accidents in forensic pathology. Human factors, and injury and crash tipologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalisa Lanino

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the association between the main human factors, related to motorcycle accidents, and the accident configuration and the lesive pattern. The present study considers the 200 two-wheel crashes occurred in Italy in the Province of Pavia between 1999 and 2001. For all cases a revision of the injured people’s interviews and their clinical records has been made. All the accidents of the survey have been examined considering the traumatic lesion abscribed to the accident to assess a direct causal link between human factors and the crash tipology and the injury pattern. Chi-square test was used to evaluate the relationship between the variables and a logistic regression was performed to evaluate the association of injury severity with some variables supposed to be predictive factors. Frontal-lateral impact collisions are about 6 times more likely to be caused by a traffic scan error of the other vehicle driver (no rider than other types of crashes (OR= 5,8; p < 0,0001; IC 95%: 2,875-11,736. Contusions-abrasions show the highest percentages in motorcyclists with no coverage worn (p < 0,001 and riders with no clothing have a higher risk to be severely injured than riders with coverage, but it is not statistically significant. Instead, there is not a statistical significant association between: rider’s gender, rider’s age, riding experience and accident configuration; damaged region of the helmet and cranium injury severity.

  4. Telomerase activation by genomic rearrangements in high-risk neuroblastoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peifer, Martin; Hertwig, Falk; Roels, Frederik; Dreidax, Daniel; Gartlgruber, Moritz; Menon, Roopika; Krämer, Andrea; Roncaioli, Justin L; Sand, Frederik; Heuckmann, Johannes M; Ikram, Fakhera; Schmidt, Rene; Ackermann, Sandra; Engesser, Anne; Kahlert, Yvonne; Vogel, Wenzel; Altmüller, Janine; Nürnberg, Peter; Thierry-Mieg, Jean; Thierry-Mieg, Danielle; Mariappan, Aruljothi; Heynck, Stefanie; Mariotti, Erika; Henrich, Kai-Oliver; Gloeckner, Christian; Bosco, Graziella; Leuschner, Ivo; Schweiger, Michal R; Savelyeva, Larissa; Watkins, Simon C; Shao, Chunxuan; Bell, Emma; Höfer, Thomas; Achter, Viktor; Lang, Ulrich; Theissen, Jessica; Volland, Ruth; Saadati, Maral; Eggert, Angelika; de Wilde, Bram; Berthold, Frank; Peng, Zhiyu; Zhao, Chen; Shi, Leming; Ortmann, Monika; Büttner, Reinhard; Perner, Sven; Hero, Barbara; Schramm, Alexander; Schulte, Johannes H; Herrmann, Carl; O'Sullivan, Roderick J; Westermann, Frank; Thomas, Roman K; Fischer, Matthias

    2015-10-29

    Neuroblastoma is a malignant paediatric tumour of the sympathetic nervous system. Roughly half of these tumours regress spontaneously or are cured by limited therapy. By contrast, high-risk neuroblastomas have an unfavourable clinical course despite intensive multimodal treatment, and their molecular basis has remained largely elusive. Here we have performed whole-genome sequencing of 56 neuroblastomas (high-risk, n = 39; low-risk, n = 17) and discovered recurrent genomic rearrangements affecting a chromosomal region at 5p15.33 proximal of the telomerase reverse transcriptase gene (TERT). These rearrangements occurred only in high-risk neuroblastomas (12/39, 31%) in a mutually exclusive fashion with MYCN amplifications and ATRX mutations, which are known genetic events in this tumour type. In an extended case series (n = 217), TERT rearrangements defined a subgroup of high-risk tumours with particularly poor outcome. Despite a large structural diversity of these rearrangements, they all induced massive transcriptional upregulation of TERT. In the remaining high-risk tumours, TERT expression was also elevated in MYCN-amplified tumours, whereas alternative lengthening of telomeres was present in neuroblastomas without TERT or MYCN alterations, suggesting that telomere lengthening represents a central mechanism defining this subtype. The 5p15.33 rearrangements juxtapose the TERT coding sequence to strong enhancer elements, resulting in massive chromatin remodelling and DNA methylation of the affected region. Supporting a functional role of TERT, neuroblastoma cell lines bearing rearrangements or amplified MYCN exhibited both upregulated TERT expression and enzymatic telomerase activity. In summary, our findings show that remodelling of the genomic context abrogates transcriptional silencing of TERT in high-risk neuroblastoma and places telomerase activation in the centre of transformation in a large fraction of these tumours.

  5. Psychological characteristics in high-risk MSM in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Guanzhi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Men who have sex with men (MSM have become a high-risk group of HIV infection in China. To date, little is known regarding the behavioral, social and psychological characteristics in Chinese MSM, which makes the implementation of preventive and therapeutic strategies for this high-risk subpopulation of people extremely difficult. Methods A total of 714 questionnaires were retrieved from the database of a Chinese government-sponsored National Key Research Project titled "Risk Analysis and Strategic Prevention of HIV Transmission from MSM to the General Population in China". The respondents were categorized into a high-risk group and a control group. Their behavioral, social and psychological characteristics were comparatively analyzed. Results Of the 714 MSM analyzed, 59 (8.26% had high-risk homosexual behaviors. This sub-group of MSM had a higher in-marriage rate, a higher monthly income, heavier alcohol consumption and more serious problems with sexual abuse in childhood, intentional suicide attempts and mistaken assumption on condom's role in protecting HIV infection, as compared with the control group (P P > 0.05. A vast majority of the individuals in both behavior categories expressed support of legally protected gay clubs as well as gay marriage legislation in China. There was a strong correlation between high-risk behaviors and sexual abuse in childhood, alcohol drinking, income level and a mistaken belief in perfect HIV protection through the use of condoms. Conclusions MSM with and without high-risk homosexual behaviors have different social and psychological characteristics, which should be taken into account when implementing behavioral and therapeutic interventions aimed at preventing HIV/AIDS transmission among MSM as well as from MSM to the general population in China.

  6. A comparison of drivers with high versus low perceived risk of being caught and arrested for driving under the influence of alcohol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Kenneth H; Fell, James C; Yan, Alice F

    2009-08-01

    To examine the beliefs, behaviors, and knowledge of drivers concerning drunk driving and to compare those with greater or lesser perceptions of risk of being caught driving while impaired. A random-digit-dial telephone survey was conducted of 850 licensed drivers throughout Maryland who reported their driving behaviors, crash history, beliefs about various alcohol countermeasures, and their knowledge of state alcohol laws. Most drivers (72%) did not feel that it was very likely that they would be stopped by the police if they drove after having too much to drink (low-risk perceivers). High-risk perceivers (28%) felt that it was very likely that they would be stopped and most (70%) felt that it was very likely that they would be arrested and convicted. Less than half (45%) of the low-risk perceivers felt that they would be arrested and convicted if they drove impaired. High-risk perceivers were significantly more likely to be non-white, less likely to drive 10 mph above the speed limit, but were more likely have five or more tickets in their lifetime and believed that sobriety checkpoints are effective. They were also more aware of laws regarding mandatory use of ignition interlocks for repeat driving under the influence (DUI) offenders and the zero tolerance law for under-21-year-old drivers. There is a need to elevate the perceived risk of being caught when driving while alcohol impaired. Despite several years of prevention programs, a substantial portion of Maryland drivers do not feel it very likely that they would be stopped by the police if they were to drive after drinking too much. Drivers who perceive these risks are more accepting of enforcement and treatment countermeasures and are more likely to report safer driving behaviors.

  7. Detection of high risk campylobacteriosis clusters at three geographic levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Weisent

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Campylobacteriosis is a leading cause of bacterial gastroenteritis in the United States and many other developed countries. Understanding the spatial distribution of this disease and identifying high-risk areas is vital to focus resources for prevention and control measures. In addition, determining the appropriate scale for geographical analysis of surveillance data is an area of concern to epidemiologists and public health officials. The purpose of this study was to (i compare standardized risk estimates for campylobacteriosis in Tennessee over three distinct geographical scales (census tract, zip code and county subdivision, and (ii identify and investigate high-risk spatial clustering of campylobacteriosis at the three geographical scales to determine if clustering is scale dependent. Significant high risk clusters (P <0.05 were detected at all three spatial scales. There were overlaps in regions of high-risk and clusters at all three geographic levels. At the census tract level, spatial analysis identified smaller clusters of finer resolution and detected more clusters than the other two levels. However, data aggregation at zip code or county subdivision yielded similar findings. The importance of this line of research is to create a framework whereby economically efficient disease control strategies become more attainable through improved geographical precision and risk detection. Accurate identification of disease clusters for campylobacteriosis can enable public health personnel to focus scarce resources towards prevention and control programmes on the most at-risk populations. Consistent results at multiple spatial levels highlight the robustness of the geospatial techniques utilized in this study. Furthermore, analyses at the zip code and county subdivision levels can be useful when address level information (finer resolution data are not available. These procedures may also be used to help identify regionally specific risk factors for

  8. Reducing mortality for high risk surgical patients in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, B A; Carrothers, A D; Jones, Chris

    2012-06-01

    Over 40 million surgical procedures are performed per annum in the USA and Europe, including several million patients who are considered to be high risk (Bennett-Guerrero et al 2003). Overall, the risk of death or major complications after surgery in the general surgical patient population is low, with a post-operative mortality rate of less than1% during the same hospital admission (Niskanen et al 2001).

  9. Trends in fatal motor vehicle crashes before and after marijuana commercialization in Colorado*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomonsen-Sautel, Stacy; Min, Sung-Joon; Sakai, Joseph T.; Thurstone, Christian; Hopfer, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Background Legal medical marijuana has been commercially available on a widespread basis in Colorado since mid-2009; however, there is a dearth of information about the impact of marijuana commercialization on impaired driving. This study examined if the proportions of drivers in a fatal motor vehicle crash who were marijuana-positive and alcohol-impaired, respectively, have changed in Colorado before and after mid-2009 and then compared changes in Colorado with 34 non-medical marijuana states (NMMS). Methods Thirty-six 6-month intervals (1994–2011) from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System were used to examine temporal changes in the proportions of drivers in a fatal motor vehicle crash who were alcohol-impaired (≥ 0.08 g/dl) and marijuana-positive, respectively. The pre-commercial marijuana time period in Colorado was defined as 1994–June 2009 while July 2009–2011 represented the post-commercialization period. Results In Colorado, since mid-2009 when medical marijuana became commercially available and prevalent, the trend became positive in the proportion of drivers in a fatal motor vehicle crash who were marijuana-positive (change in trend, 2.16 (0.45), p < 0.0001); in contrast, no significant changes were seen in NMMS. For both Colorado and NMMS, no significant changes were seen in the proportion of drivers in a fatal motor vehicle crash who were alcohol-impaired. Conclusions Prevention efforts and policy changes in Colorado are needed to address this concerning trend in marijuana-positive drivers. In addition, education on the risks of marijuana-positive driving needs to be implemented. PMID:24831752

  10. Trends in fatal motor vehicle crashes before and after marijuana commercialization in Colorado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomonsen-Sautel, Stacy; Min, Sung-Joon; Sakai, Joseph T; Thurstone, Christian; Hopfer, Christian

    2014-07-01

    Legal medical marijuana has been commercially available on a widespread basis in Colorado since mid-2009; however, there is a dearth of information about the impact of marijuana commercialization on impaired driving. This study examined if the proportions of drivers in a fatal motor vehicle crash who were marijuana-positive and alcohol-impaired, respectively, have changed in Colorado before and after mid-2009 and then compared changes in Colorado with 34 non-medical marijuana states (NMMS). Thirty-six 6-month intervals (1994-2011) from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System were used to examine temporal changes in the proportions of drivers in a fatal motor vehicle crash who were alcohol-impaired (≥0.08 g/dl) and marijuana-positive, respectively. The pre-commercial marijuana time period in Colorado was defined as 1994-June 2009 while July 2009-2011 represented the post-commercialization period. In Colorado, since mid-2009 when medical marijuana became commercially available and prevalent, the trend became positive in the proportion of drivers in a fatal motor vehicle crash who were marijuana-positive (change in trend, 2.16 (0.45), p<0.0001); in contrast, no significant changes were seen in NMMS. For both Colorado and NMMS, no significant changes were seen in the proportion of drivers in a fatal motor vehicle crash who were alcohol-impaired. Prevention efforts and policy changes in Colorado are needed to address this concerning trend in marijuana-positive drivers. In addition, education on the risks of marijuana-positive driving needs to be implemented. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. All Terrain Vehicle (ATV crashes in an unregulated environment: A prospective study of 56 cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mushrek Alani

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available All terrain vehicle (ATV use is increasing at a rapid pace in settings without proper safety regulations. Aim: To define injury patterns, impairments, and outcomes among patients injured in ATV crashes; to determine prevalence of protective equipment use; and to define the potential role of injury prevention in addressing the problem. Methods: During a recent 10 month period, 56 patients were reported as injured in ATV crashes seriously enough to require admission and were prospectively entered into a study-specific database. Patient demographics, site of crash, prior ATV experience, and use of safety equipment were recorded. Injuries were characterized by body system and tabulated. Outcomes, including deaths and impairments, were defined. Results: There were 47 males (84% and 9 females (16%. Most injuries occurred in patients older than 18 years, but 20% occurred in children less than 14 years of age. Helmet use was confirmed in 12%. Three patients died (5% mortality. Significant disability occurred in 19 patients (34% and was permanent in 4 (7%. Head, face and musculoskeletal injuries were most common. Conclusions: ATV crashes can cause serious injuries including death and permanent disability. The lack of awareness of the injury potential for this popular recreational activity has escalated the risk of injury, and the absence of safety programs and regulations has further aggravated the problem. Based on these data, a public education program, compulsory use of helmets and other protective clothing, and penalties for non-compliance should be implemented. Interventions at recreation sites and the point of ATV sale may be most beneficial.

  12. Evaluation of the First Transport Rotorcraft Airframe Crash Testbed (TRACT 1) Full-Scale Crash Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annett, Martin S.; Littell, Justin D.; Jackson, Karen E.; Bark, Lindley W.; DeWeese, Rick L.; McEntire, B. Joseph

    2014-01-01

    In 2012, the NASA Rotary Wing Crashworthiness Program initiated the Transport Rotorcraft Airframe Crash Testbed (TRACT) research program by obtaining two CH-46E helicopters from the Navy CH-46E Program Office (PMA-226) at the Navy Flight Readiness Center in Cherry Point, North Carolina. Full-scale crash tests were planned to assess dynamic responses of transport-category rotorcraft under combined horizontal and vertical impact loading. The first crash test (TRACT 1) was performed at NASA Langley Research Center's Landing and Impact Research Facility (LandIR), which enables the study of critical interactions between the airframe, seat, and occupant during a controlled crash environment. The CH-46E fuselage is categorized as a medium-lift rotorcraft with fuselage dimensions comparable to a regional jet or business jet. The first TRACT test (TRACT 1) was conducted in August 2013. The primary objectives for TRACT 1 were to: (1) assess improvements to occupant loads and displacement with the use of crashworthy features such as pre-tensioning active restraints and energy absorbing seats, (2) develop novel techniques for photogrammetric data acquisition to measure occupant and airframe kinematics, and (3) provide baseline data for future comparison with a retrofitted airframe configuration. Crash test conditions for TRACT 1 were 33-ft/s forward and 25-ft/s vertical combined velocity onto soft soil, which represent a severe, but potentially survivable impact scenario. The extraordinary value of the TRACT 1 test was reflected by the breadth of meaningful experiments. A total of 8 unique experiments were conducted to evaluate ATD responses, seat and restraint performance, cargo restraint effectiveness, patient litter behavior, and photogrammetric techniques. A combination of Hybrid II, Hybrid III, and ES-2 Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) were placed in forward and side facing seats and occupant results were compared against injury criteria. Loads from ATDs in energy

  13. Identifying beliefs underlying pre-drivers' intentions to take risks: An application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Richard; Andrews, Elizabeth; Harris, Peter R; Armitage, Christopher J; McKenna, Frank P; Norman, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Novice motorists are at high crash risk during the first few months of driving. Risky behaviours such as speeding and driving while distracted are well-documented contributors to crash risk during this period. To reduce this public health burden, effective road safety interventions need to target the pre-driving period. We use the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to identify the pre-driver beliefs underlying intentions to drive over the speed limit (N=77), and while over the legal alcohol limit (N=72), talking on a hand-held mobile phone (N=77) and feeling very tired (N=68). The TPB explained between 41% and 69% of the variance in intentions to perform these behaviours. Attitudes were strong predictors of intentions for all behaviours. Subjective norms and perceived behavioural control were significant, though weaker, independent predictors of speeding and mobile phone use. Behavioural beliefs underlying these attitudes could be separated into those reflecting perceived disadvantages (e.g., speeding increases my risk of crash) and advantages (e.g., speeding gives me a thrill). Interventions that can make these beliefs safer in pre-drivers may reduce crash risk once independent driving has begun.

  14. Linux Crash Dump的设计与实现%AN INTRODUCTION TO DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION OF Linux Crash Dump

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王勇; 沈亚谦; 潘金贵

    2002-01-01

    本文介绍了Linux Crash Dump的设计与实现方法.Linux Crash Dump提供了一种保存系统在发生Crash时内存映象的能力.通过对Dump结果的分析,可以有效地帮助诊断系统出错的原因.本文介绍了如何进行Crash Dump,以及Dump的数据的组织和保存方法等.

  15. The impact of Michigan's text messaging restriction on motor vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehsani, Johnathon P; Bingham, C Raymond; Ionides, Edward; Childers, David

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of Michigan's universal text messaging restriction (effective July 2010) across different age groups of drivers and crash severities. Changes in monthly crash rates and crash trends per 10,000 licensed drivers aged 16, 17, 18, 19, 20-24, and 25-50 years were estimated using time series analysis for three levels of crash severity: (1) fatal/disabling injury; (2) nondisabling injury; and (3) possible injury/property damage only (PDO) crashes for the period 2005-2012. Analyses were adjusted for crash rates of drivers' aged 65-99 years, Michigan's unemployment rate, and gasoline prices. After the introduction of the texting restriction, significant increases were observed in crash rates and monthly trends in fatal/disabling injury crashes and nondisabling injury crashes, and significant decreases in possible injury/PDO crashes. The magnitude of the effects where significant changes were observed was small. The introduction of the texting restriction was not associated with a reduction in crash rates or trends in severe crash types. On the contrary, small increases in the most severe crash types (fatal/disabling and nondisabling injury) and small decreases in the least severe crash types (possible injury/PDO) were observed. These findings extend the literature on the effects of cell phone restrictions by examining the effects of the restriction on newly licensed adolescent drivers and adult drivers separately by crash severity. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Assessing the potential benefits of the motorcycle autonomous emergency braking using detailed crash reconstructions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savino, Giovanni; Giovannini, Federico; Baldanzini, Niccolò; Pierini, Marco; Rizzi, Matteo

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility and quantitative potential benefits of a motorcycle autonomous emergency braking (MAEB) system in fatal rear-end crashes. A further aim was to identify possible criticalities of this safety system in the field of powered 2-wheelers (PTWs; e.g., any additional risk introduced by the system itself). Seven relevant cases from the Swedish national in-depth fatal crash database were selected. All crashes involved car-following in which a non-anti-lock braking system (ABS)-equipped motorcycle was the bullet vehicle. Those crashes were reconstructed in a virtual environment with Prescan, simulating the road scenario, the vehicles involved, their precrash trajectories, ABS, and, alternatively, MAEB. The MAEB chosen as reference for the investigation was developed within the European Commission-funded Powered Two-Wheeler Integrated Safety (PISa) project and further detailed in later studies, with the addition of the ABS functionality. The boundary conditions of each simulation varied within a range compatible with the uncertainty of the in-depth data and also included a range of possible rider behaviors including the actual one. The benefits of the MAEB were evaluated by comparing the simulated impact speed in each configuration (no ABS/MAEB, ABS only, MAEB). The MAEB proved to be beneficial in a large number of cases. When applicable, the benefits of the system were in line with the expected values. When not applicable, there was no clear evidence of an increased risk for the rider due to the system. MAEB represents an innovative safety device in the field of PTWs, and the feasibility of such a system was investigated with promising results. Nevertheless, this technology is not mature yet for PTW application. Research in the field of passenger cars does not directly apply to PTWs because the activation logic of a braking system is more challenging on PTWs. The deployment of an autonomous deceleration would affect the

  17. Finite Element Crash Simulations and Impact-Induced Injuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Mackerle

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available This bibliography lists references to papers, conference proceedings and theses/dissertations dealing with finite element simulations of crashes, impact-induced injuries and their protection that were published in 1980–1998. 390 citations are listed.

  18. Relationship between organisational safety culture dimensions and crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varmazyar, Sakineh; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Arghami, Shirazeh; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim

    2016-01-01

    Knowing about organisational safety culture in public transportation system can provide an appropriate guide to establish effective safety measures and interventions to improve safety at work. The aim of this study was investigation of association between safety culture dimensions (leadership styles and company values, usage of crashes information and prevention programmes, management commitment and safety policy, participation and control) with involved self-reported crashes. The associations were considered through Spearman correlation, Pearson chi-square test and logistic regression. The results showed an association among self-reported crashes (occurrence or non-occurrence) and factors including leadership styles and company values; management commitment and safety policy; and control. Moreover, it was found a negative correlation and an odds ratio less than one between control and self-reported crashes.

  19. Legalized Pot May Lead to More Traffic Crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 166824.html Legalized Pot May Lead to More Traffic Crashes But auto accident deaths aren't on ... legal may have experienced a slight bump in traffic collisions, the good news is that there wasn' ...

  20. Finite Element Crash Simulations and Impact-Induced Injuries

    OpenAIRE

    Mackerle, Jaroslav

    1999-01-01

    This bibliography lists references to papers, conference proceedings and theses/dissertations dealing with finite element simulations of crashes, impact-induced injuries and their protection that were published in 1980–1998. 390 citations are listed.

  1. Optimal Occupant Kinematics and Crash Pulse for Automobile Frontal Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiqing Cheng

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on a lumped-parameter model of the occupant-vehicle system, optimal kinematics of the occupant in frontal impact are investigated. It is found that for the minimization of the peak occupant deceleration, the optimal kinematics move the occupant at a constant deceleration. Based on this the optimal vehicle crash pulse is investigated. The optimal crash pulse for passive restraint systems is found to be: a positive impulse at the onset, an immediate plunge followed by a gradual rebound, and finally a positive level period. The relation of the peak occupant deceleration to the impact speed, crash deformation, and vehicle interior rattlespace is established. The optimal crash pulse for active and pre-acting restraint systems is discussed.

  2. Where Medical Pot Is Legal, Fatal Car Crashes Often Decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 162675.html Where Medical Pot Is Legal, Fatal Car Crashes Often Decline It's possible that these state ... and Human Services. More Health News on: Marijuana Motor Vehicle Safety Recent Health News Related MedlinePlus Health ...

  3. Evaluation of developmental metrics for utilization in a pediatric advanced automatic crash notification algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doud, Andrea N; Weaver, Ashley A; Talton, Jennifer W; Barnard, Ryan T; Petty, John; Stitzel, Joel D

    2016-01-01

    Appropriate treatment at designated trauma centers (TCs) improves outcomes among injured children after motor vehicle crashes (MVCs). Advanced Automatic Crash Notification (AACN) has shown promise in improving triage to appropriate TCs. Pediatric-specific AACN algorithms have not yet been created. To create such an algorithm, it will be necessary to include some metric of development (age, height, or weight) as a covariate in the injury risk algorithm. This study sought to determine which marker of development should serve as a covariate in such an algorithm and to quantify injury risk at different levels of this metric. A retrospective review of occupants age pediatric AACN algorithm. Clinical judgment, literature review, and chi-square analysis were used to create groupings of the chosen metric that would discriminate injury patterns. Adjusted odds of particular injury types at the different levels of this metric were calculated from logistic regression while controlling for gender, vehicle velocity change (delta V), belted status (optimal, suboptimal, or unrestrained), and crash mode (rollover, rear, frontal, near-side, or far-side). NASS-CDS analysis produced 11,541 occupants age mass index (BMI) classifications. Adjusted odds of key injury types with respect to these age categorizations revealed that younger children were at increased odds of sustaining Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ and 3+ head injuries and AIS 3+ spinal injuries, whereas older children were at increased odds of sustaining thoracic fractures, AIS 3+ abdominal injuries, and AIS 2+ upper and lower extremity injuries. The injury patterns observed across developmental metrics in this study mirror those previously described among children with blunt trauma. This study identifies age as the metric best suited for use in a pediatric AACN algorithm and utilizes 12 years of data to provide quantifiable risks of particular injuries at different levels of this metric. This risk quantification will

  4. A prospective pilot cohort analysis of crash characteristics and pattern of injuries in riders and pillion passengers involved in motorcycle crashes in an urban area in Cameroon: lessons for prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chichom-Mefire, Alain; Atashili, Julius; Tsiagadigui, Jean G; Fon-Awah, Clovis; Ngowe-Ngowe, Marcelin

    2015-09-18

    Low and middle-income countries carry over ninety per cent of the burden of injury related mortality and disability. Motorcycles are gradually becoming a major mode of transportation in Cameroon and other African countries in the absence of an organized public transport. Consequently, the contribution of motorcycle crash to injury-related deaths seems to be on the rise. Currently, data addressing motorcycle crash characteristics, pattern, and severity of motorcycle-related injuries in Cameroon are scarce. We hypothesised that head and limb injuries are the most frequent cause of morbidity and mortality and equally affect riders and pillion passengers. This hospital-based prospective pilot cohort analysis involving 405 motorcycle crashes and 621 injury victims was conducted in Laquintinie Hospital, a large centre located in an urban area in Cameroon. All motorcycle riders and passengers received in the emergency department over a 4 months period with an injury following a traffic related crash were included. Crash characteristics and type, anatomical location and severity of injuries were recorded and analysed comparing the pattern of injuries between riders and pillion passengers involved in motorcyclecrashes. This pilot analysis is expected to propose a snapshot of motorcycle injuries in Douala and will be followed by a larger analysis over a longer period. We recorded a majority of motorcycle versus car and motorcycle versus motorcycle collisions. Most of these crashes occurred over the week-end and in the night. Helmet use was almost inexistent. We observed that females aged above 40 years represented the majority of pillion passengers. This accounted for the sex-ratio of 1.1/1. A total of 1311 injuries were identified in our patients, giving a mean of 2.1 injuries per victim. The head and the limbs were the most affected anatomical areas. Riders carried a higher risk of sustaining an injury to head and neck than pillion passengers. Riders and pillion passengers

  5. Caffeine and cognitive decline in elderly women at high vascular risk. : Caffeine and cognition in high-risk women

    OpenAIRE

    Vercambre, Marie-Noël; Berr, Claudine; Ritchie, Karen,; Kang, Jae,

    2013-01-01

    International audience; BACKGROUND: Persons with vascular disorders are at higher risk of cognitive decline. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether caffeine may be associated with cognitive decline reduction in elderly at high vascular risk. METHODS: We included 2,475 women aged 65+ years in the Women's Antioxidant Cardiovascular Study, a randomized trial of antioxidants and B vitamins for cardiovascular disease secondary prevention. We ascertained regular caffeine intake at baseline (1995-1996) usi...

  6. Hypertension Management in the High Cardiovascular Risk Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilir Maraj

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The incidence of hypertension is increasing every year. Blood pressure (BP control is an important therapeutic goal for the slowing of progression as well as for the prevention of Cardiovascular disease. The management of hypertension in the high cardiovascular risk population remains a real challenge as the population continues to age, the incidence of diabetes increases, and more and more people survive acute myocardial infarction. We will review hypertension management in the high cardiovascular risk population: patients with coronary heart disease (CHD and heart failure (HF as well as in diabetic patients.

  7. Pilot Age and Error in Air-Taxi Crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebok, George W.; Qiang, Yandong; Baker, Susan P.; Li, Guohua

    2010-01-01

    Introduction The associations of pilot error with the type of flight operations and basic weather conditions are well documented. The correlation between pilot characteristics and error is less clear. This study aims to examine whether pilot age is associated with the prevalence and patterns of pilot error in air-taxi crashes. Methods Investigation reports from the National Transportation Safety Board for crashes involving non-scheduled Part 135 operations (i.e., air taxis) in the United States between 1983 and 2002 were reviewed to identify pilot error and other contributing factors. Crash circumstances and the presence and type of pilot error were analyzed in relation to pilot age using Chi-square tests. Results Of the 1751 air-taxi crashes studied, 28% resulted from mechanical failure, 25% from loss of control at landing or takeoff, 7% from visual flight rule conditions into instrument meteorological conditions, 7% from fuel starvation, 5% from taxiing, and 28% from other causes. Crashes among older pilots were more likely to occur during the daytime rather than at night and off airport than on airport. The patterns of pilot error in air-taxi crashes were similar across age groups. Of the errors identified, 27% were flawed decisions, 26% were inattentiveness, 23% mishandled aircraft kinetics, 15% mishandled wind and/or runway conditions, and 11% were others. Conclusions Pilot age is associated with crash circumstances but not with the prevalence and patterns of pilot error in air-taxi crashes. Lack of age-related differences in pilot error may be attributable to the “safe worker effect.” PMID:19601508

  8. Car Crash Fatalities Associated With Fire in Sweden

    OpenAIRE

    Viklund, Åsa; Björnstig, Johanna; Larsson, Magnus; Björnstig, Ulf

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To study the epidemiology and causes of death in fatal car crashes on Swedish roads in which the victim's vehicle caught fire. Methods: The data set is from the Swedish Transport Administrations in-depth studies of fatal crashes 1998-2008. Autopsies from all cases provided data on injuries, toxicological analyses, and cause of death. Results: In total, 181 people died in 133 burning cars, accounting for 5 percent of all deaths in passenger cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and mi...

  9. Analyzing the Relationship Between Car Generation and Severity of Motor-Vehicle Crashes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe; Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Hels, Tove

    2013-01-01

    .e., car’s first registration year) and injury severity sustained by car drivers involved in accidents in Denmark between 2004 and 2010. A generalized ordered logit model was estimated while controlling for several characteristics of the crash, the vehicle and the persons involved, and a sensitivity...... car market with remarkably high registration tax that causes potential buyers to hold longer onto old cars, the relationship between technological enhancements of vehicles and severity of crashes requires particular attention. The current study investigated the relationship between car generation (i...... analysis was performed to assess the effect of car generation on drivers’ injury severity. Results illustrate that newer car generations are associated to significantly lower probability of injury and fatality, and that replacing older cars with newer ones introduces significant and not to be overlooked...

  10. Optimized Method for Knee Displacement Measurement in Vehicle Sled Crash Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sun Hang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an optimized method for measuring dummy’s knee displacement in vehicle sled crash test. The proposed method utilizes completely new elements for measurement, which are acceleration and angular velocity of dummy’s pelvis, as well as the rotational angle of its femur. Compared with the traditional measurement only using camera-based high-speed motion image analysis, the optimized one can not only maintain the measuring accuracy, but also avoid the disturbance caused by dummy movement, dashboard blocking and knee deformation during the crash. An experiment is made to verify the accuracy of the proposed method, which eliminates the strong dependence on single target tracing in traditional method. Moreover, it is very appropriate for calculating the penetration depth to the dashboard.

  11. Analyzing the Relationship Between Car Generation and Severity of Motor-Vehicle Crashes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe; Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Hels, Tove;

    2013-01-01

    car market with remarkably high registration tax that causes potential buyers to hold longer onto old cars, the relationship between technological enhancements of vehicles and severity of crashes requires particular attention. The current study investigated the relationship between car generation (i.......e., car’s first registration year) and injury severity sustained by car drivers involved in accidents in Denmark between 2004 and 2010. A generalized ordered logit model was estimated while controlling for several characteristics of the crash, the vehicle and the persons involved, and a sensitivity...... analysis was performed to assess the effect of car generation on drivers’ injury severity. Results illustrate that newer car generations are associated to significantly lower probability of injury and fatality, and that replacing older cars with newer ones introduces significant and not to be overlooked...

  12. Personality and sensation seeking in high-risk sports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polona Klinar

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Personality represents a relatively consistent and unique sum of psychological, cognitive and physical characteristics of an individual. Sensation seeking is defined as an action, characterized by the search for different, new, complex and intensive emotions and experiences and preparedness to take physical, social, legal and financial risks in order to achieve these experiences.Objective: We were looking for differences in personality and sensation seeking between high-risk sports athletes and recreational athletes and the correlation between one's purpose to participate in high-risk sports and actual participation.Method: The data was acquired using three different questionnaires: Sensation Seeking Scale (forms SSS - V and SSS - VI and the Big Five Questionnaire. The sample consisted of 76 high-risk sports athletes and 51 recreational athletes. Data was analyzed using the SPSS statistical program.Results: The results were unexpected because we noticed differences between the two groups in which recreational athletes received higher results, especially in openness. Mostly results from such research show the converse - athletes of high-risk sports are more open. We did not find any difference between the two groups in sensation seeking. We found some correlations between personality traits and factors of Sensation Seeking Scale (SSS - V and SSS - VI. Openness and the Thrill and adventure seeking factor correlated in both versions of SSS.Conclusions: We conclude that high-risk sports athletes differ from recreational athletes, especially in openness. Also, we can confirm that both used versions of SSS are equally effective for analyzing sensation seeking.

  13. HIV Sentinel Surveillance Among High Risk Groups: Scenario In Gujarat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L B Chavan, Prakash Patel, Vaibhav Gharat

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Surveillance is the ongoing systematic collection, collation, analysis and interpretation of data so that appropriate action can be taken within time. Aims and Objective: The present annual HIV sentinel surveillance (HSS was carried out for monitoring trends of HIV epidemic in high risk group populations in selected sites of Gujarat state.. Methodology: The HSS was carried out in representative populations from High Risk Group (HRG like Female Sex Workers (FSW, Man having Sex with Man (MSM and Single Male Migrant. Target sample size was 250 at each HRG site (Female Sex Worker, Male Sex Male & SMM. Consecutive sampling was done at designated sentinel site for selecting the survey participants. Results: Overall 3726 samples (1494 FSWs, 1732 MSMs & 500 SMM were tested in the High risk group of HSS 2008. The overall sero-positivity in samples from FSWs, MSMs sites was 4.5%. Sero-positivity was more or less high (? 5% among FSWs as well as MSMs irrespective of age, place of residence, literacy level, occupation; and migration status. Conclusion: The overall trend of sero-positivity in High risk groups shows decreasing trend of HIV in the state from 2004 to 2008.

  14. MOTORCYCLE CRASH TEST CENTRE: A MOVEABLE BARRIER APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V.Wong

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Over recent years, researchers have used full-scale motorcycle crash tests in the field of road safety research to simulate different types of crash technique and scenario. This study focuses on the development of laboratory-based motorcycle crash tests. A moveable barrier, designated as a ‘trolley’ in this study, is designed, developed and implemented in a laboratory-based motorcycle crash test. The design of the trolley underwent several versions prior to the final election. Various design considerations and factors, such as the trolley’s flexibility in various impact conditions, were weighted. Finite element analysis and experimental tests examine and explain the details of the design. The purposeful selection of this trolley is discussed, such as how it might meet wide industrial market applications. With a laboratory-based crash test facility, various crash scenarios and motorcycle crashworthiness could be determined in-situ, coupled with a reduction in exp