WorldWideScience

Sample records for high confidence based

  1. Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagstaff, Kiri L.; desJardins, Marie; MacGlashan, James

    2010-01-01

    Confidence-based Feature Acquisition (CFA) is a novel, supervised learning method for acquiring missing feature values when there is missing data at both training (learning) and test (deployment) time. To train a machine learning classifier, data is encoded with a series of input features describing each item. In some applications, the training data may have missing values for some of the features, which can be acquired at a given cost. A relevant JPL example is that of the Mars rover exploration in which the features are obtained from a variety of different instruments, with different power consumption and integration time costs. The challenge is to decide which features will lead to increased classification performance and are therefore worth acquiring (paying the cost). To solve this problem, CFA, which is made up of two algorithms (CFA-train and CFA-predict), has been designed to greedily minimize total acquisition cost (during training and testing) while aiming for a specific accuracy level (specified as a confidence threshold). With this method, it is assumed that there is a nonempty subset of features that are free; that is, every instance in the data set includes these features initially for zero cost. It is also assumed that the feature acquisition (FA) cost associated with each feature is known in advance, and that the FA cost for a given feature is the same for all instances. Finally, CFA requires that the base-level classifiers produce not only a classification, but also a confidence (or posterior probability).

  2. The Effects of Game-Based Learning on Mathematical Confidence and Performance: High Ability vs. Low Ability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ku, Oskar; Chen, Sherry Y.; Wu, Denise H.; Lao, Andrew C. C.; Chan, Tak-Wai

    2014-01-01

    Many students possess low confidence toward learning mathematics, which, in turn, may lead them to give up pursuing more mathematics knowledge. Recently, game-based learning (GBL) is regarded as a potential means in improving students' confidence. Thus, this study tried to promote students' confidence toward mathematics by using GBL. In addition,…

  3. The Effects of Game-Based Learning on Mathematical Confidence and Performance: High Ability vs. Low Ability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ku, Oskar; Chen, Sherry Y.; Wu, Denise H.; Lao, Andrew C. C.; Chan, Tak-Wai

    2014-01-01

    Many students possess low confidence toward learning mathematics, which, in turn, may lead them to give up pursuing more mathematics knowledge. Recently, game-based learning (GBL) is regarded as a potential means in improving students' confidence. Thus, this study tried to promote students' confidence toward mathematics by using GBL. In…

  4. High Confidence Software and Systems Research Needs

    Data.gov (United States)

    Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — This White Paper presents a survey of high confidence software and systems research needs. It has been prepared by the High Confidence Software and Systems...

  5. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  6. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  7. Explicit representation of confidence informs future value-based decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Folke, Tomas; Jacobsen, Catrine; Fleming, Stephen M.

    2016-01-01

    Humans can reflect on decisions and report variable levels of confidence. But why maintain an explicit representation of confidence for choices that have already been made and therefore cannot be undone? Here we show that an explicit representation of confidence is harnessed for subsequent changes...... of mind. Specifically, when confidence is low, participants are more likely to change their minds when the same choice is presented again, an effect that is most pronounced in participants with greater fidelity in their confidence reports. Furthermore, we show that choices reported with high confidence...... of confidence has a positive impact on the quality of future value-based decisions....

  8. Asymptotically Honest Confidence Regions for High Dimensional

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl

    While variable selection and oracle inequalities for the estimation and prediction error have received considerable attention in the literature on high-dimensional models, very little work has been done in the area of testing and construction of confidence bands in high-dimensional models. However...... develop an oracle inequality for the conservative Lasso only assuming the existence of a certain number of moments. This is done by means of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality which in our context provides sharper bounds than Nemirovski's inequality. As opposed to van de Geer et al. (2014) we allow...

  9. High-Confidence Quantum Gate Tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Blake; da Silva, Marcus; Ryan, Colm; Kimmel, Shelby; Donovan, Brian; Ohki, Thomas

    2014-03-01

    Debugging and verification of high-fidelity quantum gates requires the development of new tools and protocols to unwrap the performance of the gate from the rest of the sequence. Randomized benchmarking tomography[2] allows one to extract full information of the unital portion of the gate with high confidence. We report experimental confirmation of the technique's applicability to quantum gate tomography. We show that the method is robust to common experimental imperfections such as imperfect single-shot readout and state preparation. We also demonstrate the ability to characterize non-Clifford gates. To assist in the experimental implementation we introduce two techniques. ``Atomic Cliffords'' use phase ramping and frame tracking to allow single-pulse implementation of the full group of single-qubit Clifford gates. Domain specific pulse sequencers allow rapid implementation of the many thousands of sequences needed. This research was funded by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), through the Army Research Office contract no. W911NF-10-1-0324.

  10. Confidence-based somatic mutation evaluation and prioritization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Löwer

    Full Text Available Next generation sequencing (NGS has enabled high throughput discovery of somatic mutations. Detection depends on experimental design, lab platforms, parameters and analysis algorithms. However, NGS-based somatic mutation detection is prone to erroneous calls, with reported validation rates near 54% and congruence between algorithms less than 50%. Here, we developed an algorithm to assign a single statistic, a false discovery rate (FDR, to each somatic mutation identified by NGS. This FDR confidence value accurately discriminates true mutations from erroneous calls. Using sequencing data generated from triplicate exome profiling of C57BL/6 mice and B16-F10 melanoma cells, we used the existing algorithms GATK, SAMtools and SomaticSNiPer to identify somatic mutations. For each identified mutation, our algorithm assigned an FDR. We selected 139 mutations for validation, including 50 somatic mutations assigned a low FDR (high confidence and 44 mutations assigned a high FDR (low confidence. All of the high confidence somatic mutations validated (50 of 50, none of the 44 low confidence somatic mutations validated, and 15 of 45 mutations with an intermediate FDR validated. Furthermore, the assignment of a single FDR to individual mutations enables statistical comparisons of lab and computation methodologies, including ROC curves and AUC metrics. Using the HiSeq 2000, single end 50 nt reads from replicates generate the highest confidence somatic mutation call set.

  11. Confidence in value-based choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Martino, Benedetto; Fleming, Stephen M.; Garrett, Neil; Dolan, Raymond

    2013-01-01

    Summary Decisions are never perfect with confidence in one’s choices fluctuating over time. How subjective confidence and valuation of choice options interact at the level of brain and behavior is unknown. Using a dynamic model of the decision process we show that confidence reflects the evolution of a decision variable over time, explaining the observed relation between confidence, value, accuracy and reaction time. As predicted by our dynamic model, we show that an fMRI signal in human ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) reflects both value comparison and confidence in the value comparison process. Crucially, individuals varied in how they related confidence to accuracy, allowing us to show that this introspective ability is predicted by a measure of functional connectivity between vmPFC and rostrolateral prefrontal cortex (rlPFC). Our findings provide a mechanistic link between noise in value comparison and metacognitive awareness of choice, enabling us both to want and to express knowledge of what we want. PMID:23222911

  12. Engineering Student Self-Assessment through Confidence-Based Scoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuen-Reed, Gigi; Reed, Kyle B.

    2015-01-01

    A vital aspect of an answer is the confidence that goes along with it. Misstating the level of confidence one has in the answer can have devastating outcomes. However, confidence assessment is rarely emphasized during typical engineering education. The confidence-based scoring method described in this study encourages students to both think about…

  13. Inferring high-confidence human protein-protein interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Xueping

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As numerous experimental factors drive the acquisition, identification, and interpretation of protein-protein interactions (PPIs, aggregated assemblies of human PPI data invariably contain experiment-dependent noise. Ascertaining the reliability of PPIs collected from these diverse studies and scoring them to infer high-confidence networks is a non-trivial task. Moreover, a large number of PPIs share the same number of reported occurrences, making it impossible to distinguish the reliability of these PPIs and rank-order them. For example, for the data analyzed here, we found that the majority (>83% of currently available human PPIs have been reported only once. Results In this work, we proposed an unsupervised statistical approach to score a set of diverse, experimentally identified PPIs from nine primary databases to create subsets of high-confidence human PPI networks. We evaluated this ranking method by comparing it with other methods and assessing their ability to retrieve protein associations from a number of diverse and independent reference sets. These reference sets contain known biological data that are either directly or indirectly linked to interactions between proteins. We quantified the average effect of using ranked protein interaction data to retrieve this information and showed that, when compared to randomly ranked interaction data sets, the proposed method created a larger enrichment (~134% than either ranking based on the hypergeometric test (~109% or occurrence ranking (~46%. Conclusions From our evaluations, it was clear that ranked interactions were always of value because higher-ranked PPIs had a higher likelihood of retrieving high-confidence experimental data. Reducing the noise inherent in aggregated experimental PPIs via our ranking scheme further increased the accuracy and enrichment of PPIs derived from a number of biologically relevant data sets. These results suggest that using our high-confidence

  14. Business confidence still high in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amanor-wilks, D

    1995-12-01

    Business confidence has not been affected in Zimbabwe despite the AIDS epidemic in that country. An Australian mining company has recruited people to work at its platinum mine in Zimbabwe and also instituted an AIDS awareness program. The National Chamber of Commerce disclosed that semiskilled and unskilled workers who are the "easiest to replace" have been most affected by the epidemic. The impact of AIDS has not been as bad as had been predicted several years ago. By the end of the 1990s, however, there might be a skills shortage. The first AIDS case was detected in 1985 in Zimbabwe. By the end of 1995 a cumulative total of 38,500 cases had been reported, but the National AIDS Control Program believes that the true figure is over 100,000. The estimated number of HIV-infected people is about 1 million. The most economically productive age group (30-50) has the highest rates of infection. Transport is affected most, followed by mining and commercial farming. Infection rates among miners are estimated to be 20-30% and the rates are the highest at the mines on the major transport routes. The mining industry has not had any problems in recruiting labor, but, increasingly, deaths are AIDS-related. The growing sex industry at the mines has accelerated the spread of HIV. In addition, small mines do not have AIDS awareness programs in place. The National Employment Council runs a project for the transport industry, which seeks to intensify AIDS campaigns at truck stops. This also entails talks to drivers about AIDS; courses for police, nurses, and sex workers; and the distribution of condoms. In commercial farming, two-thirds of workers are unskilled casual laborers who live in squalid conditions that foster the spread of AIDS. At these farms there is also a growing number of orphans, whose number is estimated to rise to 60,000 by the late 1990s.

  15. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment, we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence. PMID:22171810

  16. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

  17. Stock market confidence and copula-based Markov models

    OpenAIRE

    Jovanovic, Mario

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a descriptive model of stock market confidence conditional on stock market uncertainty in a first-order copula-based Markov approach. By using monthly closing prices of the VIX as a stock market uncertainty proxy for the United States and the copula of Fang et al. (2000) a stable nonlinear relation between confidence and uncertainty is derived. Based on the existence of a specific dependence structure uncertainty-reducing policies by US institutions w...

  18. Contrasting Diversity Values: Statistical Inferences Based on Overlapping Confidence Intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGregor-Fors, Ian; Payton, Mark E.

    2013-01-01

    Ecologists often contrast diversity (species richness and abundances) using tests for comparing means or indices. However, many popular software applications do not support performing standard inferential statistics for estimates of species richness and/or density. In this study we simulated the behavior of asymmetric log-normal confidence intervals and determined an interval level that mimics statistical tests with P(α) = 0.05 when confidence intervals from two distributions do not overlap. Our results show that 84% confidence intervals robustly mimic 0.05 statistical tests for asymmetric confidence intervals, as has been demonstrated for symmetric ones in the past. Finally, we provide detailed user-guides for calculating 84% confidence intervals in two of the most robust and highly-used freeware related to diversity measurements for wildlife (i.e., EstimateS, Distance). PMID:23437239

  19. Word Spotting Based on a posterior Measure of Keyword Confidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郝杰; 李星

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, an approach of keyword confidence estimation is developed that well combines acoustic layer scores and syllable-based statistical language model (LM) scores.An a posteriori (AP) confidence measure and its forward-backward calculating algorithm are deduced. A zero false alarm (ZFA) assumption is proposed for evaluating relative confidence measures by word spotting task. In a word spotting experiment with a vocabulary of 240keywords, the keyword accuracy under the AP measure is above 94%, which well approaches its theoretical upper limit. In addition, a syllable lattice Hidden Markov Model (SLHMM) is formulated and a unified view of confidence estimation, word spotting, optimal path search,and N-best syllable re-scoring is presented. The proposed AP measure can be easily applied to various speech recognition systems as well.

  20. Autism Spectrum Disorder and High Confidence Gene Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Mai, MOCHIZUKI

    2017-01-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurological developmental disorder whose mechanism isyet unclear. However, recent ASD studies, which employ exome- and genome-wide sequencing,have identified some high-confidence ASD genes. Those ASD studies have revealed that CHD8is likely associated with ASD. In this article, we highlight that CHD8 may regulate othercandidate ASD risk genes. Current research indicates that there exist some thousand autismsusceptibility candidate genes. Moreover, we sugge...

  1. Confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schinkel, Stefan [Interdisciplinary Centre for Dynamics of Complex Systems, University of Potsdam (Germany)], E-mail: schinkel@agnld.uni-potsdam.de; Marwan, N. [Interdisciplinary Centre for Dynamics of Complex Systems, University of Potsdam (Germany); Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) (Germany); Dimigen, O. [Department of Psychology, University of Potsdam (Germany); Kurths, J. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) (Germany); Department of Physics, Humboldt University at Berlin (Germany)

    2009-06-15

    In the recent past, recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) has gained an increasing interest in various research areas. The complexity measures the RQA provides have been useful in describing and analysing a broad range of data. It is known to be rather robust to noise and nonstationarities. Yet, one key question in empirical research concerns the confidence bounds of measured data. In the present Letter we suggest a method for estimating the confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures. We study the applicability of the suggested method with model and real-life data.

  2. Enabling high confidence detections of gravitational-wave bursts

    CERN Document Server

    Littenberg, Tyson B; Cornish, Neil J; Millhouse, Margaret

    2015-01-01

    With the advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors taking observations the detection of gravitational waves is expected within the next few years. Extracting astrophysical information from gravitational wave detections is a well-posed problem and thoroughly studied when detailed models for the waveforms are available. However, one motivation for the field of gravitational wave astronomy is the potential for new discoveries. Recognizing and characterizing unanticipated signals requires data analysis techniques which do not depend on theoretical predictions for the gravitational waveform. Past searches for short-duration un-modeled gravitational wave signals have been hampered by transient noise artifacts, or "glitches," in the detectors. In some cases, even high signal-to-noise simulated astrophysical signals have proven difficult to distinguish from glitches, so that essentially any plausible signal could be detected with at most 2-3 $\\sigma$ level confidence. We have put forth the BayesWave algorithm to differentiat...

  3. Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Stuart G.

    2013-05-01

    Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

  4. Likelihood based observability analysis and confidence intervals for predictions of dynamic models

    CERN Document Server

    Kreutz, Clemens; Timmer, Jens

    2011-01-01

    Mechanistic dynamic models of biochemical networks such as Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) contain unknown parameters like the reaction rate constants and the initial concentrations of the compounds. The large number of parameters as well as their nonlinear impact on the model responses hamper the determination of confidence regions for parameter estimates. At the same time, classical approaches translating the uncertainty of the parameters into confidence intervals for model predictions are hardly feasible. In this article it is shown that a so-called prediction profile likelihood yields reliable confidence intervals for model predictions, despite arbitrarily complex and high-dimensional shapes of the confidence regions for the estimated parameters. Prediction confidence intervals of the dynamic states allow a data-based observability analysis. The approach renders the issue of sampling a high-dimensional parameter space into evaluating one-dimensional prediction spaces. The method is also applicable ...

  5. A Trust-Based Approach to Estimating the Confidence of the Software System in Open Environments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Feng Xu; Jing Pan; Wen Lu

    2009-01-01

    Emerging with open environments, the software paradigms, such as open resource coalition and Internetware,present several novel characteristics including user-centric, non-central control, and continual evolution. The goal of obtaining high confidence on such systems is more difficult to achieve. The general developer-oriented metrics and testing-based methods which are adopted in the traditional measurement for high confidence software seem to be infeasible in the new situation. Firstly, the software development is changed from the developer-centric to user-centric, while user's opinions are usually subjective, and cannot be generalized in one objective metric. Secondly, there is non-central control to guarantee the testing on components which formed the software system, and continual evolution makes it impossible to test on the whole software system. Therefore, this paper proposes a trust-based approach that consists of three sequential sub-stages:1) describing metrics for confidence estimation from users; 2) estimating the confidence of the components based on the quantitative information from the trusted recommenders; 3) estimating the confidence of the whole software system based on the component confidences and their interactions, as well as attempts to make a step toward a reasonable and effective method for confidence estimation of the software system in open environments.

  6. Secure and Usable Bio-Passwords based on Confidence Interval

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aeyoung Kim

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The most popular user-authentication method is the password. Many authentication systems try to enhance their security by enforcing a strong password policy, and by using the password as the first factor, something you know, with the second factor being something you have. However, a strong password policy and a multi-factor authentication system can make it harder for a user to remember the password and login in. In this paper a bio-password-based scheme is proposed as a unique authentication method, which uses biometrics and confidence interval sets to enhance the security of the log-in process and make it easier as well. The method offers a user-friendly solution for creating and registering strong passwords without the user having to memorize them. Here we also show the results of our experiments which demonstrate the efficiency of this method and how it can be used to protect against a variety of malicious attacks.

  7. Confidence of model based shape reconstruction from sparse data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baka, N.; de Bruijne, Marleen; Reiber, J. H. C.

    2010-01-01

    and assign a confidence value to the resulting reconstructed shape. An evaluation study is performed to compare three methods used for sparse SSM fitting w.r.t. specificity, generalization ability, and correctness of estimated confidence limits with an increasing amount of input information. We find...... that the proposed constrained shape model outperforms the other models, is robust against the selection and amount of sparse information, and indicates the shape confidence well....

  8. Utilitarian Model of Measuring Confidence within Knowledge-Based Societies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack, Brady Michael; Hung, Kuan-Ming; Liu, Chia Ju; Chiu, Houn Lin

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a utilitarian confidence testing statistic called Risk Inclination Model (RIM) which indexes all possible confidence wagering combinations within the confines of a defined symmetrically point-balanced test environment. This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings, a formal derivation, a hypothetical application, and…

  9. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  10. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario A Bertella

    Full Text Available Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  11. High-confidence coding and noncoding transcriptome maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    The advent of high-throughput RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) has led to the discovery of unprecedentedly immense transcriptomes encoded by eukaryotic genomes. However, the transcriptome maps are still incomplete partly because they were mostly reconstructed based on RNA-seq reads that lack their orientations (known as unstranded reads) and certain boundary information. Methods to expand the usability of unstranded RNA-seq data by predetermining the orientation of the reads and precisely determining the boundaries of assembled transcripts could significantly benefit the quality of the resulting transcriptome maps. Here, we present a high-performing transcriptome assembly pipeline, called CAFE, that significantly improves the original assemblies, respectively assembled with stranded and/or unstranded RNA-seq data, by orienting unstranded reads using the maximum likelihood estimation and by integrating information about transcription start sites and cleavage and polyadenylation sites. Applying large-scale transcriptomic data comprising 230 billion RNA-seq reads from the ENCODE, Human BodyMap 2.0, The Cancer Genome Atlas, and GTEx projects, CAFE enabled us to predict the directions of about 220 billion unstranded reads, which led to the construction of more accurate transcriptome maps, comparable to the manually curated map, and a comprehensive lncRNA catalog that includes thousands of novel lncRNAs. Our pipeline should not only help to build comprehensive, precise transcriptome maps from complex genomes but also to expand the universe of noncoding genomes. PMID:28396519

  12. Confidence-based Somatic Mutation Evaluation and Prioritization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lower, M.; Renard, B.Y.; Graaf, J. de; Wagner, M.; Paret, C.; Kneip, C.; Tureci, O.; Diken, M.; Britten, C.; Kreiter, S.; Koslowski, M.; Castle, J.C.; Sahin, U.

    2012-01-01

    Next generation sequencing (NGS) has enabled high throughput discovery of somatic mutations. Detection depends on experimental design, lab platforms, parameters and analysis algorithms. However, NGS-based somatic mutation detection is prone to erroneous calls, with reported validation rates near 54%

  13. A computational framework for boosting confidence in high-throughput protein-protein interaction datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosur, Raghavendra; Peng, Jian; Vinayagam, Arunachalam; Stelzl, Ulrich; Xu, Jinbo; Perrimon, Norbert; Bienkowska, Jadwiga; Berger, Bonnie

    2012-08-31

    Improving the quality and coverage of the protein interactome is of tantamount importance for biomedical research, particularly given the various sources of uncertainty in high-throughput techniques. We introduce a structure-based framework, Coev2Net, for computing a single confidence score that addresses both false-positive and false-negative rates. Coev2Net is easily applied to thousands of binary protein interactions and has superior predictive performance over existing methods. We experimentally validate selected high-confidence predictions in the human MAPK network and show that predicted interfaces are enriched for cancer -related or damaging SNPs. Coev2Net can be downloaded at http://struct2net.csail.mit.edu.

  14. Augmenting Chinese hamster genome assembly by identifying regions of high confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vishwanathan, Nandita; Bandyopadhyay, Arpan A; Fu, Hsu-Yuan; Sharma, Mohit; Johnson, Kathryn C; Mudge, Joann; Ramaraj, Thiruvarangan; Onsongo, Getiria; Silverstein, Kevin A T; Jacob, Nitya M; Le, Huong; Karypis, George; Hu, Wei-Shou

    2016-09-01

    Chinese hamster Ovary (CHO) cell lines are the dominant industrial workhorses for therapeutic recombinant protein production. The availability of genome sequence of Chinese hamster and CHO cells will spur further genome and RNA sequencing of producing cell lines. However, the mammalian genomes assembled using shot-gun sequencing data still contain regions of uncertain quality due to assembly errors. Identifying high confidence regions in the assembled genome will facilitate its use for cell engineering and genome engineering. We assembled two independent drafts of Chinese hamster genome by de novo assembly from shotgun sequencing reads and by re-scaffolding and gap-filling the draft genome from NCBI for improved scaffold lengths and gap fractions. We then used the two independent assemblies to identify high confidence regions using two different approaches. First, the two independent assemblies were compared at the sequence level to identify their consensus regions as "high confidence regions" which accounts for at least 78 % of the assembled genome. Further, a genome wide comparison of the Chinese hamster scaffolds with mouse chromosomes revealed scaffolds with large blocks of collinearity, which were also compiled as high-quality scaffolds. Genome scale collinearity was complemented with EST based synteny which also revealed conserved gene order compared to mouse. As cell line sequencing becomes more commonly practiced, the approaches reported here are useful for assessing the quality of assembly and potentially facilitate the engineering of cell lines.

  15. Developing confidence in adverse outcome pathway-based ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    An adverse outcome pathway (AOP) description linking inhibition of aromatase (cytochrome P450 [cyp] 19) to reproductive dysfunction was reviewed for scientific and technical quality and endorsed by the OECD. An intended application of the AOP framework is to support the use of mechanistic or pathway-based data to infer or predict chemical hazards and apical adverse outcomes. As part of this work, ToxCast high throughput screening data were used to identify a chemicals’ ability to inhibit aromatase activity in vitro. Twenty-four hour in vivo exposures, focused on effects on production and circulating concentrations of 17β-estradiol (E2), key events in the AOP, were conducted to verify in vivo activity. Based on these results, imazalil was selected as a case study chemical to test an AOP-based hazard prediction. A computational model of the fish hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal-liver axis and a statistically-based model of oocyte growth dynamics were used to predict impacts of different concentrations of imazalil on multiple key events along the AOP, assuming continuous exposure for 21 d. Results of the model simulations were used to select test concentrations and design a fathead minnow reproduction study in which fish were exposed to 20, 60, or 200 µg imazalil/L for durations of 2.5, 10, or 21d. Within 60 h of exposure, female fathead minnows showed significant reductions in ex vivo production of E2, circulating E2 concentrations, and significant increases in

  16. Preparation for high-acuity clinical placement: confidence levels of final-year nursing students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Porter J

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Joanne Porter, Julia Morphet, Karen Missen, Anita Raymond School of Nursing and Midwifery, Monash University, Churchill, VIC, Australia Aim: To measure final-year nursing students’ preparation for high-acuity placement with emphasis on clinical skill performance confidence. Background: Self-confidence has been reported as being a key component for effective clinical performance, and confident students are more likely to be more effective nurses. Clinical skill performance is reported to be the most influential source of self-confidence. Student preparation and skill acquisition are therefore important aspects in ensuring students have successful clinical placements, especially in areas of high acuity. Curriculum development should aim to assist students with their theoretical and clinical preparedness for the clinical environment. Method: A modified pretest/posttest survey design was used to measure the confidence of third-year undergraduate nursing students (n = 318 for placement into a high-acuity clinical setting. The survey comprised four questions related to clinical placement and prospect of participating in a cardiac arrest scenario, and confidence rating levels of skills related to practice in a high-acuity setting. Content and face validity were established by an expert panel (α = 0.90 and reliability was established by the pilot study in 2009. Comparisons were made between confidence levels at the beginning and end of semester. Results: Student confidence to perform individual clinical skills increased over the semester; however their feelings of preparedness for high-acuity clinical placement decreased over the same time period. Reported confidence levels improved with further exposure to clinical placement. Conclusion: There may be many external factors that influence students’ perceptions of confidence and preparedness for practice. Further research is recommended to identify causes of poor self-confidence in final-year nursing

  17. People’s Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors: Did They Know it All Along?

    OpenAIRE

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2011-01-01

    This study investigated the ‘knew it all along’ explanation of the hypercorrection effect. The hypercorrection effect refers to the finding that when given corrective feedback, errors that are committed with high confidence are easier to correct than low confidence errors. Experiment 1 showed that people were more likely to claim that they ‘knew it all along,’ when they were given the answers to high confidence errors as compared to low confidence errors. Experiments 2 and 3 investigated whet...

  18. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuel Santos

    Full Text Available Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system.

  19. People's Hypercorrection of High-Confidence Errors: Did They Know It All Along?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2011-01-01

    This study investigated the "knew it all along" explanation of the hypercorrection effect. The hypercorrection effect refers to the finding that when people are given corrective feedback, errors that are committed with high confidence are easier to correct than low-confidence errors. Experiment 1 showed that people were more likely to…

  20. Visual Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamassian, Pascal

    2016-10-14

    Visual confidence refers to an observer's ability to judge the accuracy of her perceptual decisions. Even though confidence judgments have been recorded since the early days of psychophysics, only recently have they been recognized as essential for a deeper understanding of visual perception. The reluctance to study visual confidence may have come in part from obtaining convincing experimental evidence in favor of metacognitive abilities rather than just perceptual sensitivity. Some effort has thus been dedicated to offer different experimental paradigms to study visual confidence in humans and nonhuman animals. To understand the origins of confidence judgments, investigators have developed two competing frameworks. The approach based on signal decision theory is popular but fails to account for response times. In contrast, the approach based on accumulation of evidence models naturally includes the dynamics of perceptual decisions. These models can explain a range of results, including the apparently paradoxical dissociation between performance and confidence that is sometimes observed.

  1. Different Confidence-Accuracy Relationships for Feature-Based and Familiarity-Based Memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinitz, Mark Tippens; Peria, William J.; Seguin, Julie Anne; Loftus, Geoffrey R.

    2011-01-01

    Participants studied naturalistic pictures presented for varying brief durations and then received a recognition test on which they indicated whether each picture was old or new and rated their confidence. In 1 experiment they indicated whether each "old"/"new" response was based on memory for a specific feature in the picture…

  2. Different Confidence-Accuracy Relationships for Feature-Based and Familiarity-Based Memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinitz, Mark Tippens; Peria, William J.; Seguin, Julie Anne; Loftus, Geoffrey R.

    2011-01-01

    Participants studied naturalistic pictures presented for varying brief durations and then received a recognition test on which they indicated whether each picture was old or new and rated their confidence. In 1 experiment they indicated whether each "old"/"new" response was based on memory for a specific feature in the picture…

  3. Measuring the Confidence of 8th Grade Taiwanese Students' Knowledge of Acids and Bases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Tsai, Chun-Yen

    2012-01-01

    The present study investigated whether gender differences were present on the confidence judgments made by 8th grade Taiwanese students on the accuracy of their responses to acid-base test items. A total of 147 (76 male, 71 female) students provided item-specific confidence judgments during a test of their knowledge of acids and bases. Using the…

  4. Measuring the Confidence of 8th Grade Taiwanese Students' Knowledge of Acids and Bases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Tsai, Chun-Yen

    2012-01-01

    The present study investigated whether gender differences were present on the confidence judgments made by 8th grade Taiwanese students on the accuracy of their responses to acid-base test items. A total of 147 (76 male, 71 female) students provided item-specific confidence judgments during a test of their knowledge of acids and bases. Using the…

  5. Bootstrap-based confidence estimation in PCA and multivariate statistical process control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Babamoradi, Hamid

    Traditional/Asymptotic confidence estimation has limited applicability since it needs statistical theories to estimate the confidences, which are not available for all indicators/parameters. Furthermore, in case the theories are available for a specific indicator/parameter, the theories are based...... on assumptions that do not always hold in practice. The aim of this thesis was to illustrate the concept of bootstrap-based confidence estimation in PCA and MSPC. It particularly shows how to build bootstrapbased confidence limits in these areas to be used as alternative to the traditional/asymptotic limits....... The goal was to improve process monitoring by improving the quality of MSPC charts and contribution plots. Bootstrapping algorithm to build confidence limits was illustrated in a case study format (Paper I). The main steps in the algorithm were discussed where a set of sensible choices (plus...

  6. Feedback for reinforcement learning based brain-machine interfaces using confidence metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prins, Noeline W; Sanchez, Justin C; Prasad, Abhishek

    2017-06-01

    For brain-machine interfaces (BMI) to be used in activities of daily living by paralyzed individuals, the BMI should be as autonomous as possible. One of the challenges is how the feedback is extracted and utilized in the BMI. Our long-term goal is to create autonomous BMIs that can utilize an evaluative feedback from the brain to update the decoding algorithm and use it intelligently in order to adapt the decoder. In this study, we show how to extract the necessary evaluative feedback from a biologically realistic (synthetic) source, use both the quantity and the quality of the feedback, and how that feedback information can be incorporated into a reinforcement learning (RL) controller architecture to maximize its performance. Motivated by the perception-action-reward cycle (PARC) in the brain which links reward for cognitive decision making and goal-directed behavior, we used a reward-based RL architecture named Actor-Critic RL as the model. Instead of using an error signal towards building an autonomous BMI, we envision to use a reward signal from the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) which plays a key role in the linking of reward to motor behaviors. To deal with the complexity and non-stationarity of biological reward signals, we used a confidence metric which was used to indicate the degree of feedback accuracy. This confidence was added to the Actor's weight update equation in the RL controller architecture. If the confidence was high (>0.2), the BMI decoder used this feedback to update its parameters. However, when the confidence was low, the BMI decoder ignored the feedback and did not update its parameters. The range between high confidence and low confidence was termed as the 'ambiguous' region. When the feedback was within this region, the BMI decoder updated its weight at a lower rate than when fully confident, which was decided by the confidence. We used two biologically realistic models to generate synthetic data for MI (Izhikevich model) and NAcc (Humphries

  7. Feedback for reinforcement learning based brain-machine interfaces using confidence metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prins, Noeline W.; Sanchez, Justin C.; Prasad, Abhishek

    2017-06-01

    Objective. For brain-machine interfaces (BMI) to be used in activities of daily living by paralyzed individuals, the BMI should be as autonomous as possible. One of the challenges is how the feedback is extracted and utilized in the BMI. Our long-term goal is to create autonomous BMIs that can utilize an evaluative feedback from the brain to update the decoding algorithm and use it intelligently in order to adapt the decoder. In this study, we show how to extract the necessary evaluative feedback from a biologically realistic (synthetic) source, use both the quantity and the quality of the feedback, and how that feedback information can be incorporated into a reinforcement learning (RL) controller architecture to maximize its performance. Approach. Motivated by the perception-action-reward cycle (PARC) in the brain which links reward for cognitive decision making and goal-directed behavior, we used a reward-based RL architecture named Actor-Critic RL as the model. Instead of using an error signal towards building an autonomous BMI, we envision to use a reward signal from the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) which plays a key role in the linking of reward to motor behaviors. To deal with the complexity and non-stationarity of biological reward signals, we used a confidence metric which was used to indicate the degree of feedback accuracy. This confidence was added to the Actor’s weight update equation in the RL controller architecture. If the confidence was high (>0.2), the BMI decoder used this feedback to update its parameters. However, when the confidence was low, the BMI decoder ignored the feedback and did not update its parameters. The range between high confidence and low confidence was termed as the ‘ambiguous’ region. When the feedback was within this region, the BMI decoder updated its weight at a lower rate than when fully confident, which was decided by the confidence. We used two biologically realistic models to generate synthetic data for MI (Izhikevich

  8. Confidence interval based parameter estimation--a new SOCR applet and activity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Christou

    Full Text Available Many scientific investigations depend on obtaining data-driven, accurate, robust and computationally-tractable parameter estimates. In the face of unavoidable intrinsic variability, there are different algorithmic approaches, prior assumptions and fundamental principles for computing point and interval estimates. Efficient and reliable parameter estimation is critical in making inference about observable experiments, summarizing process characteristics and prediction of experimental behaviors. In this manuscript, we demonstrate simulation, construction, validation and interpretation of confidence intervals, under various assumptions, using the interactive web-based tools provided by the Statistics Online Computational Resource (http://www.SOCR.ucla.edu. Specifically, we present confidence interval examples for population means, with known or unknown population standard deviation; population variance; population proportion (exact and approximate, as well as confidence intervals based on bootstrapping or the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimates. Like all SOCR resources, these confidence interval resources may be openly accessed via an Internet-connected Java-enabled browser. The SOCR confidence interval applet enables the user to empirically explore and investigate the effects of the confidence-level, the sample-size and parameter of interest on the corresponding confidence interval. Two applications of the new interval estimation computational library are presented. The first one is a simulation of confidence interval estimating the US unemployment rate and the second application demonstrates the computations of point and interval estimates of hippocampal surface complexity for Alzheimers disease patients, mild cognitive impairment subjects and asymptomatic controls.

  9. Confidence interval based parameter estimation--a new SOCR applet and activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christou, Nicolas; Dinov, Ivo D

    2011-01-01

    Many scientific investigations depend on obtaining data-driven, accurate, robust and computationally-tractable parameter estimates. In the face of unavoidable intrinsic variability, there are different algorithmic approaches, prior assumptions and fundamental principles for computing point and interval estimates. Efficient and reliable parameter estimation is critical in making inference about observable experiments, summarizing process characteristics and prediction of experimental behaviors. In this manuscript, we demonstrate simulation, construction, validation and interpretation of confidence intervals, under various assumptions, using the interactive web-based tools provided by the Statistics Online Computational Resource (http://www.SOCR.ucla.edu). Specifically, we present confidence interval examples for population means, with known or unknown population standard deviation; population variance; population proportion (exact and approximate), as well as confidence intervals based on bootstrapping or the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimates. Like all SOCR resources, these confidence interval resources may be openly accessed via an Internet-connected Java-enabled browser. The SOCR confidence interval applet enables the user to empirically explore and investigate the effects of the confidence-level, the sample-size and parameter of interest on the corresponding confidence interval. Two applications of the new interval estimation computational library are presented. The first one is a simulation of confidence interval estimating the US unemployment rate and the second application demonstrates the computations of point and interval estimates of hippocampal surface complexity for Alzheimers disease patients, mild cognitive impairment subjects and asymptomatic controls.

  10. Common and specific brain regions in high- versus low-confidence recognition memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hongkeun; Cabeza, Roberto

    2009-01-01

    The goal of the present functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study was to investigate whether and to what extent brain regions involved in high-confidence recognition (HCR) versus low-confidence recognition (LCR) overlap or separate from each other. To this end, we performed conjunction analyses involving activations elicited during high-confidence hit, low-confidence hit, and high-confidence correct-rejection responses. The analyses yielded 3 main findings. First, sensory/perceptual and associated posterior regions were common to HCR and LCR, indicating contribution of these regions to both HCR and LCR activity. This finding may help explain why these regions are among the most common in functional neuroimaging studies of episodic retrieval. Second, medial temporal lobe (MTL) and associated midline regions were associated with HCR, possibly reflecting recollection-related processes, whereas specific prefrontal cortex (PFC) regions were associated with LCR, possibly reflecting executive control processes. This finding is consistent with the notion that the MTL and PFC networks play complementary roles during episodic retrieval. Finally, within posterior parietal cortex, a dorsal region was associated with LCR, possibly reflecting top-down attentional processes, whereas a ventral region was associated with HCR, possibly reflecting bottom-up attentional processes. This finding may help explain why functional neuroimaging studies have found diverse parietal effects during episodic retrieval. Taken together, our findings provide strong evidence that HCR versus LCR, and by implication, recollection versus familiarity processes, are represented in common as well as specific brain regions. PMID:19501072

  11. Understanding Parental Confidence in an Inclusive High School: A Pilot Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morewood, Gareth D.; Bond, Caroline

    2012-01-01

    A questionnaire was developed and trialled in an inclusive high school with the aim of understanding factors that contribute to parental confidence in school provision for students with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). Parents of all students at School Action, School Action Plus and those with Statements of special educational…

  12. Refutations in science texts lead to hypercorrection of misconceptions held with high confidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Loon, Mariëtte H.; Dunlosky, John; Van Gog, Tamara; Van Merriënboer, Jeroen J.g.; De Bruin, Anique B.h.

    2015-01-01

    Misconceptions about science are often not corrected during study when they are held with high confidence. However, when corrective feedback co-activates a misconception together with the correct conception, this feedback may surprise the learner and draw attention, especially when the misconception

  13. High-fidelity nursing simulation: impact on student self-confidence and clinical competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, Cynthia A; Borglund, Susan; Parcells, Dax

    2010-01-01

    Development of safe nursing practice in entry-level nursing students requires special consideration from nurse educators. The paucity of data supporting high-fidelity patient simulation effectiveness in this population informed the development of a quasi-experimental, quantitative study of the relationship between simulation and student self-confidence and clinical competence. Moreover, the study reports a novel approach to measuring self-confidence and competence of entry-level nursing students. Fifty-three baccalaureate students, enrolled in either a traditional or simulation-enhanced laboratory, participated during their first clinical rotation. Student self-confidence and faculty perception of student clinical competence were measured using selected scale items of the Lasater Clinical Judgment Rubric. The results indicated an overall improvement in self-confidence and competence across the semester, however, simulation did not significantly enhance these caring attributes. The study highlights the need for further examination of teaching strategies developed to promote the transfer of self-confidence and competence from the laboratory to the clinical setting.

  14. Empirical Likelihood based Confidence Regions for first order parameters of a heavy tailed distribution

    CERN Document Server

    Worms, Julien

    2010-01-01

    Let $X_1, \\ldots, X_n$ be some i.i.d. observations from a heavy tailed distribution $F$, i.e. such that the common distribution of the excesses over a high threshold $u_n$ can be approximated by a Generalized Pareto Distribution $G_{\\gamma,\\sigma_n}$ with $\\gamma >0$. This work is devoted to the problem of finding confidence regions for the couple $(\\gamma,\\sigma_n)$ : combining the empirical likelihood methodology with estimation equations (close but not identical to the likelihood equations) introduced by J. Zhang (Australian and New Zealand J. Stat n.49(1), 2007), asymptotically valid confidence regions for $(\\gamma,\\sigma_n)$ are obtained and proved to perform better than Wald-type confidence regions (especially those derived from the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimators). By profiling out the scale parameter, confidence intervals for the tail index are also derived.

  15. A Near-Term, High-Confidence Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothschild, William J.; Talay, Theodore A.

    2009-01-01

    The use of well understood, legacy elements of the Space Shuttle system could yield a near-term, high-confidence Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle that offers significant performance, reliability, schedule, risk, cost, and work force transition benefits. A side-mount Shuttle-Derived Vehicle (SDV) concept has been defined that has major improvements over previous Shuttle-C concepts. This SDV is shown to carry crew plus large logistics payloads to the ISS, support an operationally efficient and cost effective program of lunar exploration, and offer the potential to support commercial launch operations. This paper provides the latest data and estimates on the configurations, performance, concept of operations, reliability and safety, development schedule, risks, costs, and work force transition opportunities for this optimized side-mount SDV concept. The results presented in this paper have been based on established models and fully validated analysis tools used by the Space Shuttle Program, and are consistent with similar analysis tools commonly used throughout the aerospace industry. While these results serve as a factual basis for comparisons with other launch system architectures, no such comparisons are presented in this paper. The authors welcome comparisons between this optimized SDV and other Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle concepts.

  16. An Optimization-Based Approach to Calculate Confidence Interval on Mean Value with Interval Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kais Zaman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a methodology for construction of confidence interval on mean values with interval data for input variable in uncertainty analysis and design optimization problems. The construction of confidence interval with interval data is known as a combinatorial optimization problem. Finding confidence bounds on the mean with interval data has been generally considered an NP hard problem, because it includes a search among the combinations of multiple values of the variables, including interval endpoints. In this paper, we present efficient algorithms based on continuous optimization to find the confidence interval on mean values with interval data. With numerical experimentation, we show that the proposed confidence bound algorithms are scalable in polynomial time with respect to increasing number of intervals. Several sets of interval data with different numbers of intervals and type of overlap are presented to demonstrate the proposed methods. As against the current practice for the design optimization with interval data that typically implements the constraints on interval variables through the computation of bounds on mean values from the sampled data, the proposed approach of construction of confidence interval enables more complete implementation of design optimization under interval uncertainty.

  17. Local confidence limits for IMRT and VMAT techniques: a study based on TG119 test suite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, M; Chandroth, M

    2014-03-01

    The aim of this study was to generate a local confidence limit (CL) for intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) techniques used at Waikato Regional Cancer Centre. This work was carried out based on the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Task Group (TG) 119 report. The AAPM TG 119 report recommends CLs as a bench mark for IMRT commissioning and delivery based on its multiple institutions planning and dosimetry comparisons. In this study the locally obtained CLs were compared to TG119 benchmarks. Furthermore, the same bench mark was used to test the capabilities and quality of the VMAT technique in our clinic. The TG 119 test suite consists of two primary and four clinical tests for evaluating the accuracy of IMRT planning and dose delivery systems. Pre defined structure sets contoured on computed tomography images were downloaded from AAPM website and were transferred to a locally designed phantom. For each test case two plans were generated using IMRT and VMAT optimisation. Dose prescriptions and planning objectives recommended by TG119 report were followed to generate the test plans in Eclipse Treatment Planning System. For each plan the point dose measurements were done using an ion chamber at high dose and low dose regions. The planar dose distribution was analysed for percentage of points passing the gamma criteria of 3%/3 mm, for both the composite plan and individual fields of each plan. The CLs were generated based on the results from the gamma analysis and point dose measurements. For IMRT plans, the CLs obtained were (1) from point dose measurements: 2.49% at high dose region and 2.95% for the low dose region (2) from gamma analysis: 2.12% for individual fields and 5.9% for the composite plan. For VMAT plans, the CLs obtained were (1) from point dose measurements: 2.56% at high dose region and 2.6% for the low dose region (2) from gamma analysis: 1.46% for individual fields and 0.8% for

  18. Content-based image retrieval for interstitial lung diseases using classification confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dash, Jatindra Kumar; Mukhopadhyay, Sudipta; Prabhakar, Nidhi; Garg, Mandeep; Khandelwal, Niranjan

    2013-02-01

    Content Based Image Retrieval (CBIR) system could exploit the wealth of High-Resolution Computed Tomography (HRCT) data stored in the archive by finding similar images to assist radiologists for self learning and differential diagnosis of Interstitial Lung Diseases (ILDs). HRCT findings of ILDs are classified into several categories (e.g. consolidation, emphysema, ground glass, nodular etc.) based on their texture like appearances. Therefore, analysis of ILDs is considered as a texture analysis problem. Many approaches have been proposed for CBIR of lung images using texture as primitive visual content. This paper presents a new approach to CBIR for ILDs. The proposed approach makes use of a trained neural network (NN) to find the output class label of query image. The degree of confidence of the NN classifier is analyzed using Naive Bayes classifier that dynamically takes a decision on the size of the search space to be used for retrieval. The proposed approach is compared with three simple distance based and one classifier based texture retrieval approaches. Experimental results show that the proposed technique achieved highest average percentage precision of 92.60% with lowest standard deviation of 20.82%.

  19. Confidence-based integrated reweighting model of task-difficulty explains location-based specificity in perceptual learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talluri, Bharath Chandra; Hung, Shao-Chin; Seitz, Aaron R; Seriès, Peggy

    2015-01-01

    Perceptual learning is classically thought to be highly specific to the trained stimuli's retinal locations. However, recent research using a novel double-training paradigm has found dramatic transfer of perceptual learning to untrained locations. These results challenged existing models of perceptual learning and provoked intense debate in the field. Recently, Hung and Seitz (2014) showed that previously reported results could be reconciled by considering the details of the training procedure, in particular, whether it involves prolonged training at threshold using a single staircase procedure or multiple staircases. Here, we examine a hierarchical neural network model of the visual pathway, built upon previously proposed integrated reweighting models of perceptual learning, to understand how retinotopic transfer depends on the training procedure adopted. We propose that the transfer and specificity of learning between retinal locations can be explained by considering the task-difficulty and confidence during training. In our model, difficult tasks lead to higher learning of weights from early visual cortex to the decision unit, and thus to specificity, while easy tasks lead to higher learning of weights from later stages of the visual hierarchy and thus to more transfer. To model interindividual difference in task-difficulty, we relate task-difficulty to the confidence of subjects. We show that our confidence-based reweighting model can account for the results of Hung and Seitz (2014) and makes testable predictions.

  20. Decision-making patterns and self-confidence in high school adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro César Antonio Luna Bernal

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed to analyse the factor structure of the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire (DMQ-II, and to examine the relationships between the factors identified and Self-confidence, in order to conceptualize the decision-making process in adolescents under the Conflict Model of Decision Making. Participants were 992 Mexican high-school students, aged between 15 and 19 years. The three factors were identified as decision-making patterns in adolescents: a Vigilance, b Hipervigilance/Procrastination and c Buck-passing. The Self-confidence showed a positive effect on Vigilance, and a negative effect on theother two patterns. Results are discussed considering the literature on decision making in adolescence.

  1. Data on electrical energy conservation using high efficiency motors for the confidence bounds using statistical techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaikh, Muhammad Mujtaba; Memon, Abdul Jabbar; Hussain, Manzoor

    2016-09-01

    In this article, we describe details of the data used in the research paper "Confidence bounds for energy conservation in electric motors: An economical solution using statistical techniques" [1]. The data presented in this paper is intended to show benefits of high efficiency electric motors over the standard efficiency motors of similar rating in the industrial sector of Pakistan. We explain how the data was collected and then processed by means of formulas to show cost effectiveness of energy efficient motors in terms of three important parameters: annual energy saving, cost saving and payback periods. This data can be further used to construct confidence bounds for the parameters using statistical techniques as described in [1].

  2. Confidence Level Based Approach to Total Dose Specification for Spacecraft Electronics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xapsos, M. A.; Stauffer, C.; Phan, A.; McClure, S. S.; Ladbury, R. L.; Pellish, J. A.; Campola, M. J.; Label, K. A.

    2017-01-01

    A confidence level based approach to total dose radiation hardness assurance is presented for spacecraft electronics. It is applicable to both ionizing and displacement damage dose. Results are compared to the traditional approach that uses radiation design margin and advantages of the new approach are discussed.

  3. Confidence intervals for a random-effects meta-analysis based on Bartlett-type corrections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noma, Hisashi

    2011-12-10

    In medical meta-analysis, the DerSimonian-Laird confidence interval for the average treatment effect has been widely adopted in practice. However, it is well known that its coverage probability (the probability that the interval actually includes the true value) can be substantially below the target level. One particular reason is that the validity of the confidence interval depends on the assumption that the number of synthesized studies is sufficiently large. In typical medical meta-analyses, the number of studies is fewer than 20. In this article, we developed three confidence intervals for improving coverage properties, based on (i) the Bartlett corrected likelihood ratio statistic, (ii) the efficient score statistic, and (iii) the Bartlett-type adjusted efficient score statistic. The Bartlett and Bartlett-type corrections improve the large sample approximations for the likelihood ratio and efficient score statistics. Through numerical evaluations by simulations, these confidence intervals demonstrated better coverage properties than the existing methods. In particular, with a moderate number of synthesized studies, the Bartlett and Bartlett-type corrected confidence intervals performed well. An application to a meta-analysis of the treatment for myocardial infarction with intravenous magnesium is presented.

  4. Blind RSSD-Based Indoor Localization with Confidence Calibration and Energy Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Tengyue; Lin, Shouying; Li, Shuyuan

    2016-05-31

    Indoor localization based on wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is an important field of research with numerous applications, such as elderly care, miner security, and smart buildings. In this paper, we present a localization method based on the received signal strength difference (RSSD) to determine a target on a map with unknown transmission information. To increase the accuracy of localization, we propose a confidence value for each anchor node to indicate its credibility for participating in the estimation. An automatic calibration device is designed to help acquire the values. The acceleration sensor and unscented Kalman filter (UKF) are also introduced to reduce the influence of measuring noise in the application. Energy control is another key point in WSN systems and may prolong the lifetime of the system. Thus, a quadtree structure is constructed to describe the region correlation between neighboring areas, and the unnecessary anchor nodes can be detected and set to sleep to save energy. The localization system is implemented on real-time Texas Instruments CC2430 and CC2431 embedded platforms, and the experimental results indicate that these mechanisms achieve a high accuracy and low energy cost.

  5. Blind RSSD-Based Indoor Localization with Confidence Calibration and Energy Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tengyue Zou

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Indoor localization based on wireless sensor networks (WSNs is an important field of research with numerous applications, such as elderly care, miner security, and smart buildings. In this paper, we present a localization method based on the received signal strength difference (RSSD to determine a target on a map with unknown transmission information. To increase the accuracy of localization, we propose a confidence value for each anchor node to indicate its credibility for participating in the estimation. An automatic calibration device is designed to help acquire the values. The acceleration sensor and unscented Kalman filter (UKF are also introduced to reduce the influence of measuring noise in the application. Energy control is another key point in WSN systems and may prolong the lifetime of the system. Thus, a quadtree structure is constructed to describe the region correlation between neighboring areas, and the unnecessary anchor nodes can be detected and set to sleep to save energy. The localization system is implemented on real-time Texas Instruments CC2430 and CC2431 embedded platforms, and the experimental results indicate that these mechanisms achieve a high accuracy and low energy cost.

  6. A Game-Based Virtualized Reality Approach for Simultaneous Rehabilitation of Motor Skill and Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alasdair G. Thin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Virtualized reality games offer highly interactive and engaging user experience and therefore game-based approaches (GBVR may have significant potential to enhance clinical rehabilitation practice as traditional therapeutic exercises are often repetitive and boring, reducing patient compliance. The aim of this study was to investigate if a rehabilitation training programme using GBVR could simultaneously improve both motor skill (MS and confidence (CON, as they are both important determinants of daily living and physical and social functioning. The study was performed using a nondominant hand motor deficit model in nonambidextrous healthy young adults, whereby dominant and nondominant arms acted as control and intervention conditions, respectively. GBVR training was performed using a commercially available tennis-based game. CON and MS were assessed by having each subject perform a comparable real-world motor task (RWMT before and after training. Baseline CON and MS for performing the RWMT were significantly lower for the nondominant hand and improved after GBVR training, whereas there were no changes in the dominant (control arm. These results demonstrate that by using a GBVR approach to address a MS deficit in a real-world task, improvements in both MS and CON can be facilitated and such approaches may help increase patient compliance.

  7. Student Perceptions of and Confidence in Self-Care Course Concepts Using Team-based Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frame, Tracy R; Gryka, Rebecca; Kiersma, Mary E; Todt, Abby L; Cailor, Stephanie M; Chen, Aleda M H

    2016-04-25

    Objective. To evaluate changes in student perceptions of and confidence in self-care concepts after completing a team-based learning (TBL) self-care course. Methods. Team-based learning was used at two universities in first professional year, semester-long self-care courses. Two instruments were created and administered before and after the semester. The instruments were designed to assess changes in student perceptions of self-care using the theory of planned behavior (TPB) domains and confidence in learning self-care concepts using Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory. Wilcoxon signed rank tests were used to evaluate pre/post changes, and Mann Whitney U tests were used to evaluate university differences. Results. Fifty-three Cedarville University and 58 Manchester University students completed both instruments (100% and 92% response rates, respectively). Student self-care perceptions with TPB decreased significantly on nine of 13 items for Cedarville and decreased for one of 13 items for Manchester. Student confidence in self-care concepts improved significantly on all questions for both universities. Conclusion. Data indicate TBL self-care courses were effective in improving student confidence about self-care concepts. Establishing students' skill sets prior to entering the profession is beneficial because pharmacists will use self-directed learning to expand their knowledge and adapt to problem-solving situations.

  8. Confidence improvement of disosal safety bydevelopement of a safety case for high-level radioactive waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baik, Min Hoon; Ko, Nak Youl; Jeong, Jong Tae; Kim, Kyung Su [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    Many countries have developed a safety case suitable to their own countries in order to improve the confidence of disposal safety in deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste as well as to develop a disposal program and obtain its license. This study introduces and summarizes the meaning, necessity, and development process of the safety case for radioactive waste disposal. The disposal safety is also discussed in various aspects of the safety case. In addition, the status of safety case development in the foreign countries is briefly introduced for Switzerland, Japan, the United States of America, Sweden, and Finland. The strategy for the safety case development that is being developed by KAERI is also briefly introduced. Based on the safety case, we analyze the efforts necessary to improve confidence in disposal safety for high-level radioactive waste. Considering domestic situations, we propose and discuss some implementing methods for the improvement of disposal safety, such as construction of a reliable information database, understanding of processes related to safety, reduction of uncertainties in safety assessment, communication with stakeholders, and ensuring justice and transparency. This study will contribute to the understanding of the safety case for deep geological disposal and to improving confidence in disposal safety through the development of the safety case in Korea for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste.

  9. A high confidence, manually validated human blood plasma protein reference set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schenk, Susann; Schoenhals, Gary J; de Souza, Gustavo

    2008-01-01

    sources, including the HUPO PPP dataset. CONCLUSION: Superior instrumentation combined with rigorous validation criteria gave rise to a set of 697 plasma proteins in which we have very high confidence, demonstrated by an exceptionally low false peptide identification rate of 0.29%.......BACKGROUND: The immense diagnostic potential of human plasma has prompted great interest and effort in cataloging its contents, exemplified by the Human Proteome Organization (HUPO) Plasma Proteome Project (PPP) pilot project. Due to challenges in obtaining a reliable blood plasma protein list...

  10. Types of Feedback in Competency-Based Predoctoral Orthodontics: Effects on Students' Attitudes and Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipp, Mitchell J; Cho, Kiyoung; Kim, Han Suk

    2017-05-01

    Feedback can exert a powerful influence on learning and achievement although its effect varies. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of three types of feedback on dental students' attitudes and confidence in a competency-based course in predoctoral orthodontics at New York University College of Dentistry. In 2013-14, all 253 third-year students in a course using test-enhanced instructional methods received written feedback on formative assessments. The type of feedback varied across three groups: pass/fail grades (PF) N=77, emoticons (EM) N=90, or written comments (WC) N=86. At the end of the course, students completed surveys that included four statements addressing their attitudes toward course instruction and confidence in their abilities. The survey response rate ranged from 75% to 100% among groups. The lowest response rate (75%) was in the PF group. In attitudes toward course instruction and confidence in their abilities, the WC group trended to more positive responses than the other groups, while the PF group trended to negative responses. On two of the four statements, the trend for the WC group was significant (95% CI). In both statements concerning attitudes toward instruction, the PF group trended to negative responses that were significant (95% CI). These results support the effectiveness of descriptive written comments over pass/fail grades or emoticons in improving dental students' confidence in their abilities and their attitudes toward instruction.

  11. Evaluating Atlantic tropical cyclone track error distributions based on forecast confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Hauke, Matthew D.

    2006-01-01

    A new Tropical Cyclone (TC) surface wind speed probability product from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) takes into account uncertainty in track, maximum wind speed, and wind radii. A Monte Carlo (MC) model is used that draws from probability distributions based on historic track errors. In this thesis, distributions of forecast track errors conditioned on forecast confidence are examined to determine if significant differences exist in distribution characteristics. Two predictors are ...

  12. Confidence-based multiclass AdaBoost for physical activity monitoring

    OpenAIRE

    Reiss, Attila; Hendeby, Gustaf; Stricker, Didier

    2013-01-01

    Physical activity monitoring has recently become an important topic in wearable computing, motivated by e.g. healthcare applications. However, new benchmark results show that the difficulty of the complex classification problems exceeds the potential of existing classifiers. Therefore, this paper proposes the ConfAdaBoost.M1 algorithm. The proposed algorithm is a variant of the AdaBoost.M1 that incorporates well established ideas for confidence based boosting. The method is compared to the mo...

  13. Simulation training based on observation with minimal participation improves paediatric emergency medicine knowledge, skills and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloch, Scott A; Bloch, Amy J

    2015-03-01

    Simulation is becoming standard during emergency medicine (EM) training. To determine if observation-based simulation with minimal participation improves knowledge, skill performance and confidence, we created and evaluated 12 paediatric emergency medicine (PEM) simulations focusing on the educational value of observation. Thirty-one EM residents participated in 1-2 simulations each and observed multiple others. Scores obtained on a knowledge test presimulation and postsimulation, clinical skills assessed for changes in performance over the course of the study, and confidence questionnaires given presimulation and postsimulation were analysed. Participants' feedback regarding the observation model was also evaluated. Average scores obtained on the knowledge test improved significantly presimulation to postsimulation (36.3% vs 51.4%), and remained consistent postsimulation to 4 months after simulation training (51.4% vs 48.8%). Gain scores for participants who observed >80% of the simulations were significantly higher than for those who observedobserved was stressful but beneficial, as clinical emergencies are stressful as well. Using observation with minimal participation as the foundation of simulation training may lead to improvement in observer knowledge, skills and confidence. Observation-based simulation training may also save time and resources, allowing a broader coverage of clinical scenarios than programmes requiring active participation by all learners. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  14. Confidence Hills Mineralogy and Chemin Results from Base of Mt. Sharp, Pahrump Hills, Gale Crater, Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavanagh, P. D.; Bish, D. L.; Blake, D. F.; Vaniman, D. T.; Morris, R. V.; Ming, D. W.; Rampe, E. B.; Achilles, C. N.; Chipera, S. J.; Treiman, A. H.; hide

    2015-01-01

    The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover Curiosity recently completed its fourth drill sampling of sediments on Mars. The Confidence Hills (CH) sample was drilled from a rock located in the Pahrump Hills region at the base of Mt. Sharp in Gale Crater. The CheMin X-ray diffractometer completed five nights of analysis on the sample, more than previously executed for a drill sample, and the data have been analyzed using Rietveld refinement and full-pattern fitting to determine quantitative mineralogy. Confidence Hills mineralogy has several important characteristics: 1) abundant hematite and lesser magnetite; 2) a 10 angstrom phyllosilicate; 3) multiple feldspars including plagioclase and alkali feldspar; 4) mafic silicates including forsterite, orthopyroxene, and two types of clinopyroxene (Ca-rich and Ca-poor), consistent with a basaltic source; and 5) minor contributions from sulfur-bearing species including jarosite.

  15. Are Confidence Ratings Test- or Trait-Driven? Individual Differences among High, Average, and Low Comprehenders in Fourth Grade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasperski, Ronen; Katzir, Tami

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine whether low, average, and high comprehenders (LC, AC, and HC, respectively) differed in their reading self-confidence and bias ratings, and whether confidence ratings were driven by reading ability or distributed evenly among diverse readers. Seventy fourth-graders with good decoding abilities were administered…

  16. Are Confidence Ratings Test- or Trait-Driven? Individual Differences among High, Average, and Low Comprehenders in Fourth Grade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasperski, Ronen; Katzir, Tami

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine whether low, average, and high comprehenders (LC, AC, and HC, respectively) differed in their reading self-confidence and bias ratings, and whether confidence ratings were driven by reading ability or distributed evenly among diverse readers. Seventy fourth-graders with good decoding abilities were administered…

  17. A High-confidence Cyber-Physical Alarm System: Design and Implementation

    CERN Document Server

    Ma, Longhua; Xia, Feng; Xu, Ming; Yao, Jun; Shao, Meng

    2010-01-01

    Most traditional alarm systems cannot address security threats in a satisfactory manner. To alleviate this problem, we developed a high-confidence cyber-physical alarm system (CPAS), a new kind of alarm systems. This system establishes the connection of the Internet (i.e. TCP/IP) through GPRS/CDMA/3G. It achieves mutual communication control among terminal equipments, human machine interfaces and users by using the existing mobile communication network. The CPAS will enable the transformation in alarm mode from traditional one-way alarm to two-way alarm. The system has been successfully applied in practice. The results show that the CPAS could avoid false alarms and satisfy residents' security needs.

  18. Decreased memory confidence in obsessive-compulsive disorder for scenarios high and low on responsibility: is low still too high?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moritz, Steffen; Jaeger, Anne

    2017-03-28

    Previous research suggests that patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), particularly checkers, display an inflated sense of responsibility. For the present study, we tested whether memory confidence in OCD is reduced under conditions of heightened responsibility and/or reflects poor memory vividness. A computerized task designed to modulate perceived responsibility was administered to 26 OCD patients (12 checkers) and 21 healthy controls. In the experimental condition (high responsibility), participants had to allocate daily medications to ten fictive patients in a hospital emergency ward, whereas in the control condition (low responsibility) participants had to allocate bath essences for ten hotel guests. Participants' response time and accuracy were recorded as well as their memory confidence, memory vividness, and subjective success. Irrespective of the condition, OCD patients performed as accurately as healthy controls, but appraised their performance as worse than that of controls. Memory confidence was decreased in patients, particularly checkers. No group differences emerged on vividness, and none of the effects were moderated by the condition (high versus low responsibility). The relationship between responsibility and OCD behavior is complex. Results suggest metamemory problems in OCD checkers, even when induced responsibility is low. The findings speak against "cold" memory deficits in OCD, as patients did not differ from controls on accuracy, reaction time, or vividness. Future research should focus on idiosyncratic beliefs and scenarios that inflate responsibility and elicit cognitive biases.

  19. An approach for Web service selection based on confidence level of decision maker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khezrian, Mojtaba; Jahan, Ali; Kadir, Wan Mohd Nasir Wan; Ibrahim, Suhaimi

    2014-01-01

    Web services today are among the most widely used groups for Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). Service selection is one of the most significant current discussions in SOA, which evaluates discovered services and chooses the best candidate from them. Although a majority of service selection techniques apply Quality of Service (QoS), the behaviour of QoS-based service selection leads to service selection problems in Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM). In the existing works, the confidence level of decision makers is neglected and does not consider their expertise in assessing Web services. In this paper, we employ the VIKOR (VIšekriterijumskoKOmpromisnoRangiranje) method, which is absent in the literature for service selection, but is well-known in other research. We propose a QoS-based approach that deals with service selection by applying VIKOR with improvement of features. This research determines the weights of criteria based on user preference and accounts for the confidence level of decision makers. The proposed approach is illustrated by an example in order to demonstrate and validate the model. The results of this research may facilitate service consumers to attain a more efficient decision when selecting the appropriate service.

  20. Gene expression correlation analysis predicts involvement of high- and low-confidence risk genes in different stages of prostate carcinogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yano, Kojiro

    2010-12-01

    Whole genome association studies have identified many loci associated with the risk of prostate cancer (PC). However, very few of the genes associated with these loci have been related to specific processes of prostate carcinogenesis. Therefore I inferred biological functions associated with these risk genes using gene expression correlation analysis. PC risk genes reported in the literature were classified as having high (Plow (Phigh-confidence genes and other genes in the microarray dataset, whereas correlation between low-confidence genes and other genes in PC showed smaller decrease. Genes involved in developmental processes were significantly correlated with all risk gene categories. Ectoderm development genes, which may be related to squamous metaplasia, and genes enriched in fetal prostate stem cells (PSCs) showed strong association with the high-confidence genes. The association between the PSC genes and the low-confidence genes was weak, but genes related to neural system genes showed strong association with low-confidence genes. The high-confidence risk genes may be associated with an early stage of prostate carcinogenesis, possibly involving PSCs and squamous metaplasia. The low-confidence genes may be involved in a later stage of carcinogenesis. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  1. A Confidence Index Approach Based on ERA-40 Data for Numerical Short Range Forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Prenosil

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Critical weather related missions increasingly rely on highly automated numerical products, even if only limited computer capacities are available to generate them. This holds true especially for military tactical decision aids but also for civil requirements from firebrigades, the Red Cross or technical relief organizations. With respect to inherent atmospheric indeterminateness, a systematic quality control of numerical input turns out to become more and more essential for the users. As an economical alternative to the complex and expensive ensemble prediction method, the German Bundeswehr Geoinformation Centre has decided in favour of an analogue approach called similar synoptic situations (3s, which is based on ECMWF's ERA-40 re-analysis archive. Similarity is defined by a special distance measure for synoptic fields. The typical range of interest is 2500km×2500km$2500\\,\\text{km}\\times2500\\,\\text{km}$ in space with approximately one degree of horizontal resolution and up to 36 hours of forecast time. Historical 12, 24 and 36 hours ERA-40 forecast qualities are merged by 3s into a confidence index, indicating current anomalies of numerical quality versus monthly means in special areas of interest. As the results from the ERA-40 archive are used without any statistical adaption, this assessment is exclusively valid for trouble-free synoptic model runs in the short range. For a better understanding of the estimated anomalies in numerical forecast quality, the involved synoptic conditions are classified by a well established weather type classification. The overall method has been verified from 45 years of ERA-40 data and 10 years of GME forecasts from the Deutscher Wetterdienst. The 3s technique is highly flexible all over the globe with the exception of the tropics, because the present version includes the geostrophic approximation. At present, 3s runs operationally within four geographic areas: (1 Central Europe, (2 Kosovo with

  2. Fixed-b Subsampling and Block Bootstrap: Improved Confidence Sets Based on P-value Calibration

    CERN Document Server

    Shao, Xiaofeng

    2012-01-01

    Subsampling and block-based bootstrap methods have been used in a wide range of inference problems for time series. To accommodate the dependence, these resampling methods involve a bandwidth parameter, such as subsampling window width and block size in the block-based bootstrap. In empirical work, using different bandwidth parameters could lead to different inference results, but the traditional first order asymptotic theory does not capture the choice of the bandwidth. In this article, we propose to adopt the fixed-b approach, as advocated by Kiefer and Vogelsang (2005) in the heteroscedasticity-autocorrelation robust testing context, to account for the influence of the bandwidth on the inference. Under the fixed-b asymptotic framework, we derive the asymptotic null distribution of the p-values for subsampling and the moving block bootstrap, and further propose a calibration of the traditional small-b based confidence intervals (regions, bands) and tests. Our treatment is fairly general as it includes both ...

  3. Unconditional efficient one-sided confidence limits for the odds ratio based on conditional likelihood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Chris J; Moldovan, Max V

    2007-12-10

    We compare various one-sided confidence limits for the odds ratio in a 2 x 2 table. The first group of limits relies on first-order asymptotic approximations and includes limits based on the (signed) likelihood ratio, score and Wald statistics. The second group of limits is based on the conditional tilted hypergeometric distribution, with and without mid-P correction. All these limits have poor unconditional coverage properties and so we apply the general transformation of Buehler (J. Am. Statist. Assoc. 1957; 52:482-493) to obtain limits which are unconditionally exact. The performance of these competing exact limits is assessed across a range of sample sizes and parameter values by looking at their mean size. The results indicate that Buehler limits generated from the conditional likelihood have the best performance, with a slight preference for the mid-P version. This confidence limit has not been proposed before and is recommended for general use, especially when the underlying probabilities are not extreme.

  4. Quest-V: A Virtualized Multikernel for High-Confidence Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Ye; West, Richard

    2011-01-01

    This paper outlines the design of `Quest-V', which is implemented as a collection of separate kernels operating together as a distributed system on a chip. Quest-V uses virtualization techniques to isolate kernels and prevent local faults from affecting remote kernels. This leads to a high-confidence multikernel approach, where failures of system subcomponents do not render the entire system inoperable. A virtual machine monitor for each kernel keeps track of shadow page table mappings that control immutable memory access capabilities. This ensures a level of security and fault tolerance in situations where a service in one kernel fails, or is corrupted by a malicious attack. Communication is supported between kernels using shared memory regions for message passing. Similarly, device driver data structures are shareable between kernels to avoid the need for complex I/O virtualization, or communication with a dedicated kernel responsible for I/O. In Quest-V, device interrupts are delivered directly to a kernel...

  5. Discovery of a high confidence soft lag from an X-ray flare of Markarian 421

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    We present the X-ray variability properties of the X-ray and TeV bright blazar Mrk 421 with a-60 ks long XMM-Newton observation performed on November 9-10,2005.The source experienced a pronounced flare,of which the inter-band time lags were determined with a very high confidence level.The soft(0.6-0.8 keV) X-ray variations lagged the hard(4-10 keV) ones by 1.09+0.11-0.12 ks,and the soft lag increases with increasing difference in the photon energy.The energy-dependent soft lags can be well fitted with the difference of the energy-dependent cooling timescales of the relativistic electron distribution responsible for the observed X-ray emission,which constrains the magnetic field strength and Doppler factor of the emitting region to be Bδ 1/3-1.78 Gauss.

  6. INEMO: Distributed RF-Based Indoor Location Determination with Confidence Indicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youxian Sun

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Using radio signal strength (RSS in sensor networks localization is an attractive method since it is a cost-efficient method to provide range indication. In this paper, we present a two-tier distributed approach for RF-based indoor location determination. Our approach, namely, INEMO, provides positioning accuracy of room granularity and office cube granularity. A target can first give a room granularity request and the background anchor nodes cooperate to accomplish the positioning process. Anchors in the same room can give cube granularity if the target requires further accuracy. Fixed anchor nodes keep monitoring status of nearby anchors and local reference matching is used to support room separation. Furthermore, we utilize the RSS difference to infer the positioning confidence. The simulation results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed RF-based indoor location determination.

  7. Curriculum-based measurement of oral reading: A preliminary investigation of confidence interval overlap to detect reliable growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Norman, Ethan R

    2016-09-01

    Curriculum-based measurement of oral reading (CBM-R) progress monitoring data is used to measure student response to instruction. Federal legislation permits educators to use CBM-R progress monitoring data as a basis for determining the presence of specific learning disabilities. However, decision making frameworks originally developed for CBM-R progress monitoring data were not intended for such high stakes assessments. Numerous documented issues with trend line estimation undermine the validity of using slope estimates to infer progress. One proposed recommendation is to use confidence interval overlap as a means of judging reliable growth. This project explored the degree to which confidence interval overlap was related to true growth magnitude using simulation methodology. True and observed CBM-R scores were generated across 7 durations of data collection (range 6-18 weeks), 3 levels of dataset quality or residual variance (5, 10, and 15 words read correct per minute) and 2 types of data collection schedules. Descriptive and inferential analyses were conducted to explore interactions between overlap status, progress monitoring scenarios, and true growth magnitude. A small but statistically significant interaction was observed between overlap status, duration, and dataset quality, b = -0.004, t(20992) =-7.96, p < .001. In general, confidence interval overlap does not appear to meaningfully account for variance in true growth across many progress monitoring conditions. Implications for research and practice are discussed. Limitations and directions for future research are addressed. (PsycINFO Database Record

  8. Authorization of Animal Experiments Is Based on Confidence Rather than Evidence of Scientific Rigor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogt, Lucile; Reichlin, Thomas S; Nathues, Christina; Würbel, Hanno

    2016-12-01

    Accumulating evidence indicates high risk of bias in preclinical animal research, questioning the scientific validity and reproducibility of published research findings. Systematic reviews found low rates of reporting of measures against risks of bias in the published literature (e.g., randomization, blinding, sample size calculation) and a correlation between low reporting rates and inflated treatment effects. That most animal research undergoes peer review or ethical review would offer the possibility to detect risks of bias at an earlier stage, before the research has been conducted. For example, in Switzerland, animal experiments are licensed based on a detailed description of the study protocol and a harm-benefit analysis. We therefore screened applications for animal experiments submitted to Swiss authorities (n = 1,277) for the rates at which the use of seven basic measures against bias (allocation concealment, blinding, randomization, sample size calculation, inclusion/exclusion criteria, primary outcome variable, and statistical analysis plan) were described and compared them with the reporting rates of the same measures in a representative sub-sample of publications (n = 50) resulting from studies described in these applications. Measures against bias were described at very low rates, ranging on average from 2.4% for statistical analysis plan to 19% for primary outcome variable in applications for animal experiments, and from 0.0% for sample size calculation to 34% for statistical analysis plan in publications from these experiments. Calculating an internal validity score (IVS) based on the proportion of the seven measures against bias, we found a weak positive correlation between the IVS of applications and that of publications (Spearman's rho = 0.34, p = 0.014), indicating that the rates of description of these measures in applications partly predict their rates of reporting in publications. These results indicate that the authorities licensing animal

  9. Inferring Advisor-Student Relationships from Publication Networks Based on Approximate MaxConfidence Measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongjun Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A publication network contains abundant knowledge about advisor-student relationships. However, these relationship labels are not explicitly shown and need to be identified based on the hidden knowledge. The exploration of such relationships can benefit many interesting applications such as expert finding and research community analysis and has already drawn many scholars’ attention. In this paper, based on the common knowledge that a student usually coauthors his papers with his advisor, we propose an approximate MaxConfidence measure and present an advisor-student relationship identification algorithm based on the proposed measure. Based on the comparison of two authors’ publication list, we first employ the proposed measure to determine the time interval that a potential advising relationship lasts and then infer the likelihood of this potential advising relationship. Our algorithm suggests an advisor for each student based on the inference results. The experiment results show that our algorithm can infer advisor-student relationships efficiently and achieve a better accuracy than the time-constrained probabilistic factor graph (TPFG model without any supervised information. Also, we apply some reasonable restrictions on the dataset to reduce the search space significantly.

  10. Stepwise Method Based on Confidence Bound and Information Incorporation for Identifying the Maximum Tolerable Dose

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王雪丽; 陶剑; 史宁中

    2005-01-01

    The primary goal of a phase I clinical trial is to find the maximum tolerable dose of a treatment. In this paper, we propose a new stepwise method based on confidence bound and information incorporation to determine the maximum tolerable dose among given dose levels. On the one hand, in order to avoid severe even fatal toxicity to occur and reduce the experimental subjects, the new method is executed from the lowest dose level, and then goes on in a stepwise fashion. On the other hand,in order to improve the accuracy of the recommendation, the final recommendation of the maximum tolerable dose is accomplished through the information incorporation of an additional experimental cohort at the same dose level. Furthermore, empirical simulation results show that the new method has some real advantages in comparison with the modified continual reassessment method.

  11. Visualization of the significance of Receiver Operating Characteristics based on confidence ellipses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarlis, Nicholas V.; Christopoulos, Stavros-Richard G.

    2014-03-01

    The Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) is used for the evaluation of prediction methods in various disciplines like meteorology, geophysics, complex system physics, medicine etc. The estimation of the significance of a binary prediction method, however, remains a cumbersome task and is usually done by repeating the calculations by Monte Carlo. The FORTRAN code provided here simplifies this problem by evaluating the significance of binary predictions for a family of ellipses which are based on confidence ellipses and cover the whole ROC space. Catalogue identifier: AERY_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AERY_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen’s University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 11511 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 72906 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: FORTRAN. Computer: Any computer supporting a GNU FORTRAN compiler. Operating system: Linux, MacOS, Windows. RAM: 1Mbyte Classification: 4.13, 9, 14. Nature of problem: The Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) is used for the evaluation of prediction methods in various disciplines like meteorology, geophysics, complex system physics, medicine etc. The estimation of the significance of a binary prediction method, however, remains a cumbersome task and is usually done by repeating the calculations by Monte Carlo. The FORTRAN code provided here simplifies this problem by evaluating the significance of binary predictions for a family of ellipses which are based on confidence ellipses and cover the whole ROC space. Solution method: Using the statistics of random binary predictions for a given value of the predictor threshold ɛt, one can construct the corresponding confidence ellipses. The envelope of these corresponding confidence ellipses is estimated when

  12. Confidence-Based Progress-Driven Self-Generated Goals for Skill Acquisition in Developmental Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung eNgo

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A reinforcement learning agent that autonomously explores its environment can utilize a curiosity drive to enable continual learning of skills, in the absence of any external rewards. We formulate curiosity-driven exploration, and eventual skill acquisition, as a selective sampling problem. Each environment setting provides the agent with a stream of instances. An instance is a sensory observation that, when queried, causes an outcome that the agent is trying to predict. After an instance is observed, a query condition, derived herein, tells whether its outcome is statistically known or unknown to the agent, based on the confidence interval of an online linear classifier. Upon encountering the first unknown instance, the agent "queries'' the environment to observe the outcome, which is expected to improve its confidence in the corresponding predictor. If the environment is in a setting where all instances are known, the agent generates a plan of actions to reach a new setting, where an unknown instance is likely to be encountered. The desired setting is a self-generated goal, and the plan of action, essentially a program to solve a problem, is a skill. The success of the plan depends on the quality of the agent's predictors, which are improved as mentioned above. For validation, this method is applied to both a simulated and real Katana robot arm in its "blocks-world'' environment. Results show that the proposed method generates sample-efficient curious exploration behavior, which exhibits developmental stages, continual learning, and skill acquisition, in an intrinsically-motivated playful agent.

  13. More confident trauma resuscitation team leaders: a novel simulation-based training curriculum utilizing video feedback

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John L. Falcone

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available There are deficiencies in trauma leader performance. Simulation training and video-based feedback can lead to durable changes in behavior. A trauma resuscitation team leader training curriculum was developed. The curriculum consisted of eight simulated trauma scenarios with a mix of acuities and injury patterns using patient simulators. Other team members included a surgeon, an anesthesiologist, a chief resident, a trauma nurse, a medical student, and presenting emergency medicine staff. Each scenario was followed by video-based feedback. Attitudes regarding this curriculum were evaluated before and after the intervention with Likert-based surveys. Eight residents completed the curriculum. On a seven-point Likert scale, the median overall curriculum rating, the video discussion quality, the plan to apply leadership skills, and the plan to apply learned knowledge and behaviors was 7/7. A Wilcoxon Sign-Rank test showed improved confidence for leading Level 1 trauma resuscitations, improved beliefs in adequate training, and improved attitudes regarding team leader training (P<0.05. There was reduced nervousness of being the team leader (P=0.048. Qualitative analyses showed that the learners valued the feedback process and scenario realism. This pilot curriculum was well-received by trauma residents and offers insight into meta-cognition of trauma team leaders.

  14. Confidence as a barrier to the use of problem-based learning in veterinary undergraduate students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarlinton, Rachael E; Yon, Lisa; Klisch, Karl; Tötemeyer, Sabine; Gough, Kevin C

    2011-01-01

    Problem-based or case-based learning is a popular method of instruction in clinical degrees such as veterinary science, nursing, and medicine. It is difficult, however, for students to adapt to this learning method, and this difficulty has been well described. The present study surveyed first-year undergraduate veterinary students at the University of Nottingham about the challenges they faced upon beginning problem-based learning sessions. A surprisingly large percentage of students (36% of females and 38% of males) reported a lack of confidence in speaking in front of the other students as a concern they experienced during their first term. Conversely, only 10% of the female students (and none of the male students) reported overconfidence as a problem. This is in contrast to the perceptions of the staff members who facilitated the sessions who reported that 14% of the students exhibited underconfidence and 14% exhibited overconfidence. The difference between the female and male students' responses as well as the difference between the perceptions of students and those of facilitators is statistically significant (G-test p<.05).

  15. Method Based on Confidence Radius to Adjust the Location of Mobile Terminals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    García-Fernández, Juan Antonio; Jurado-Navas, Antonio; Fernández-Navarro, Mariano

    2017-01-01

    of the geographical positions associated to all reported mobile terminals will be remarkable improved independent on the geolocation technique employed. The proposed method will move each position estimate towards a previously calculated area of confidence in a smart manner. This reduced area of confidence...

  16. High-confidence software for safety-critical process-control systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bastani, F.B. [Univ. of Houston, TX (United States)

    1997-12-01

    Software for safety-critical systems, such as nuclear power plant control systems; avionic systems; and medical, defense, and manufacturing systems, must be highly reliable because failures can have catastrophic consequences. While existing methods, such as formal techniques, testing, and fault-tolerant software, can significantly enhance software reliability, they have some limitations in achieving ultrahigh reliability requirements. Formal methods are not able to cope with specification faults, testing is not cost-effective for high-assurance systems, and fault-tolerant software based on diverse designs is susceptible to common-mode failures.

  17. Confidant Relations in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Isaacs

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.

  18. Increased student self-confidence in clinical reasoning skills associated with case-based learning (CBL).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Jon S

    2006-01-01

    Second-year veterinary students were surveyed at the beginning and end of a 15-week semester regarding their confidence in performing three clinical reasoning skills: (1) making Problem Lists; (2) making Rule-Out Lists; and (3) selecting appropriate diagnostic tests. Each week during the semester, these skills were practiced in small-group case discussions. Changes in self-confidence were analyzed and studied in light of faculty assessments of student competence in performance of the three skills. The purpose of the study was to determine if students' self-confidence in performing three clinical reasoning skills increased with practice. On the first and last days of class, students rated their confidence in each of the three skills on a scale of 0 to 10. Mean confidence scores for the whole class both for time points and for each of the three skills were analyzed. There were significant increases in students' self-confidence in all three clinical reasoning skills over the semester each year. A greater percentage of students expressed improved confidence in selecting appropriate diagnostic tests than in the other two skills in three of the four years studied. Students' self-confidence in performing three clinical reasoning skills improved over the course of a semester in which they practiced the skills in a CBL format. Subjective faculty assessment of students' competence in these skills generally indicated improvement. However, no meaningful conclusions about the correlation of skill competence and student confidence could be drawn because of inadequacies in the measurement of student performance.

  19. Confidence intervals for single-case effect size measures based on randomization test inversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michiels, Bart; Heyvaert, Mieke; Meulders, Ann; Onghena, Patrick

    2017-02-01

    In the current paper, we present a method to construct nonparametric confidence intervals (CIs) for single-case effect size measures in the context of various single-case designs. We use the relationship between a two-sided statistical hypothesis test at significance level α and a 100 (1 - α) % two-sided CI to construct CIs for any effect size measure θ that contain all point null hypothesis θ values that cannot be rejected by the hypothesis test at significance level α. This method of hypothesis test inversion (HTI) can be employed using a randomization test as the statistical hypothesis test in order to construct a nonparametric CI for θ. We will refer to this procedure as randomization test inversion (RTI). We illustrate RTI in a situation in which θ is the unstandardized and the standardized difference in means between two treatments in a completely randomized single-case design. Additionally, we demonstrate how RTI can be extended to other types of single-case designs. Finally, we discuss a few challenges for RTI as well as possibilities when using the method with other effect size measures, such as rank-based nonoverlap indices. Supplementary to this paper, we provide easy-to-use R code, which allows the user to construct nonparametric CIs according to the proposed method.

  20. Sieve-based confidence intervals and bands for L\\'{e}vy densities

    CERN Document Server

    Figueroa-López, José E

    2011-01-01

    The estimation of the L\\'{e}vy density, the infinite-dimensional parameter controlling the jump dynamics of a L\\'{e}vy process, is considered here under a discrete-sampling scheme. In this setting, the jumps are latent variables, the statistical properties of which can be assessed when the frequency and time horizon of observations increase to infinity at suitable rates. Nonparametric estimators for the L\\'{e}vy density based on Grenander's method of sieves was proposed in Figueroa-L\\'{o}pez [IMS Lecture Notes 57 (2009) 117--146]. In this paper, central limit theorems for these sieve estimators, both pointwise and uniform on an interval away from the origin, are obtained, leading to pointwise confidence intervals and bands for the L\\'{e}vy density. In the pointwise case, our estimators converge to the L\\'{e}vy density at a rate that is arbitrarily close to the rate of the minimax risk of estimation on smooth L\\'{e}vy densities. In the case of uniform bands and discrete regular sampling, our results are consis...

  1. Factors Related to Family Therapists' Breaking Confidence When Clients Disclose High-Risks-to-HIV/AIDS Sexual Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pais, Shobha; Piercy, Fred; Miller, JoAnn

    1998-01-01

    Through a national survey of marriage and family therapists, this study examines what therapists do when their HIV-positive clients disclose that they are engaging in high-risk sexual behavior. Participants (N=309) were more likely to break confidence when their clients were male, young, gay, or African American. Describes characteristic of…

  2. Factors Related to Family Therapists' Breaking Confidence When Clients Disclose High-Risks-to-HIV/AIDS Sexual Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pais, Shobha; Piercy, Fred; Miller, JoAnn

    1998-01-01

    Through a national survey of marriage and family therapists, this study examines what therapists do when their HIV-positive clients disclose that they are engaging in high-risk sexual behavior. Participants (N=309) were more likely to break confidence when their clients were male, young, gay, or African American. Describes characteristic of…

  3. Computationally efficient permutation-based confidence interval estimation for tail-area FDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua eMillstein

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Challenges of satisfying parametric assumptions in genomic settings with thousands or millions of tests have led investigators to combine powerful False Discovery Rate (FDR approaches with computationally expensive but exact permutation testing. We describe a computationally efficient permutation-based approach that includes a tractable estimator of the proportion of true null hypotheses, the variance of the log of tail-area FDR, and a confidence interval (CI estimator, which accounts for the number of permutations conducted and dependencies between tests. The CI estimator applies a binomial distribution and an overdispersion parameter to counts of positive tests. The approach is general with regards to the distribution of the test statistic, it performs favorably in comparison to other approaches, and reliable FDR estimates are demonstrated with as few as 10 permutations. An application of this approach to relate sleep patterns to gene expression patterns in mouse hypothalamus yielded a set of 11 transcripts associated with 24 hour REM sleep (FDR = .15 (.08, .26. Two of the corresponding genes, Sfrp1 and Sfrp4, are involved in wnt signaling and several others, Irf7, Ifit1, Iigp2, and Ifih1, have links to interferon signaling. These genes would have been overlooked had a typical a priori FDR threshold such as 0.05 or 0.1 been applied. The CI provides the flexibility for choosing a significance threshold based on tolerance for false discoveries and precision of the FDR estimate. That is, it frees the investigator to use a more data-driven approach to define significance, such as the minimum estimated FDR, an option that is especially useful for weak effects, often observed in studies of complex diseases.

  4. Approach and development strategy for an agent-based model of economic confidence.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sprigg, James A.; Pryor, Richard J.; Jorgensen, Craig Reed

    2004-08-01

    We are extending the existing features of Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool, and introducing new features to simulate the role of confidence in economic activity. The new model is built from a collection of autonomous agents that represent households, firms, and other relevant entities like financial exchanges and governmental authorities. We simultaneously model several interrelated markets, including those for labor, products, stocks, and bonds. We also model economic tradeoffs, such as decisions of households and firms regarding spending, savings, and investment. In this paper, we review some of the basic principles and model components and describe our approach and development strategy for emulating consumer, investor, and business confidence. The model of confidence is explored within the context of economic disruptions, such as those resulting from disasters or terrorist events.

  5. Speech-Language Pathologists' Knowledge of Genetics: Perceived Confidence, Attitudes, Knowledge Acquisition and Practice-Based Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramontana, G. Michael; Blood, Ingrid M.; Blood, Gordon W.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine (a) the general knowledge bases demonstrated by school-based speech-language pathologists (SLPs) in the area of genetics, (b) the confidence levels of SLPs in providing services to children and their families with genetic disorders/syndromes, (c) the attitudes of SLPs regarding genetics and communication…

  6. Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth : retention of knowledge, skills, and confidence nine months after obstetric simulation-based training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelissen, Ellen; Ersdal, Hege; Mduma, Estomih; Evjen-Olsen, Bjorg; Broerse, Jacqueline; van Roosmalen, Jos; Stekelenburg, Jelle

    2015-01-01

    Background: It is important to know the decay of knowledge, skills, and confidence over time to provide evidence-based guidance on timing of follow-up training. Studies addressing retention of simulation-based education reveal mixed results. The aim of this study was to measure the level of

  7. Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth : retention of knowledge, skills, and confidence nine months after obstetric simulation-based training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelissen, Ellen; Ersdal, Hege; Mduma, Estomih; Evjen-Olsen, Bjorg; Broerse, Jacqueline; van Roosmalen, Jos; Stekelenburg, Jelle

    2015-01-01

    Background: It is important to know the decay of knowledge, skills, and confidence over time to provide evidence-based guidance on timing of follow-up training. Studies addressing retention of simulation-based education reveal mixed results. The aim of this study was to measure the level of knowledg

  8. Procedural confidence in hospital based practitioners: implications for the training and practice of doctors at all grades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsagkaraki Petroula A

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Medical doctors routinely undertake a number of practical procedures and these should be performed competently. The UK Postgraduate Medical Education and Training Board (PMETB curriculum lists the procedures trainees should be competent in. We aimed to describe medical practitioner's confidence in their procedural skills, and to define which practical procedures are important in current medical practice. Methods A cross sectional observational study was performed measuring procedural confidence in 181 hospital practitioners at all grades from 2 centres in East Anglia, England. Results Both trainees and consultants provide significant service provision. SpR level doctors perform the widest range and the highest median number of procedures per year. Most consultants perform few if any procedures, however some perform a narrow range at high volume. Cumulative confidence for the procedures tested peaks in the SpR grade. Five key procedures (central line insertion, lumbar puncture, pleural aspiration, ascitic aspiration, and intercostal drain insertion are the most commonly performed, are seen as important generic skills, and correspond to the total number of procedures for which confidence can be maintained. Key determinants of confidence are gender, number of procedures performed in the previous year and total number of procedures performed. Conclusion The highest volume of service requirement is for six procedures. The procedural confidence is dependent upon gender, number of procedures performed in the previous year and total number of procedures performed. This has implications for those designing the training curriculum and with regards the move to shorten the duration of training.

  9. Is it possible to enhance the confidence of student dietitians prior to professional placements? A design-based research model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, L J; Mitchell, L J; Williams, L T

    2017-10-01

    Student confidence is an important contributor to a successful professional placement experience. The present study aimed to evaluate a placement preparation program for student dietitians and to assess the impact on self-rated confidence with respect to commencing placements. The present study is part of a design-based research approach that involves students in a cyclic enquiry to evaluate and improve curricula. Nutrition and Dietetics students at an Australian university participated in a 1-week mandatory workshop - Pre-Placement week (PrePW), N = 98 students: in 2015 (n = 54) and 2016 (n = 44). An online survey was conducted before and after PrePW using a five-point Likert scale (1 = not confident; 5 = very confident) to assess self-rated confidence to commence placements. Mean (SD) scores were calculated. Paired and independent t-tests evaluated within- and between-group differences, respectively. Before PrePW, the mean (SD) for student confidence to commence placements overall (in all areas of practise) was 'somewhat confident' [2.9 (0.6) in 2015 and 3.0 (0.7) in 2016]. Students were least confident to commence Clinical Practice [2015: 2.5 (0.6); 2016: 2.8 (0.6)] compared to Food Service Management (FSM) [2015: 3.2 (0.9); 2016: 3.1 (0.9)] and Community and Public Health Nutrition (CPHN) [2015: 3.3 (0.9); 2016: 3.2 (0.8)]. Student feedback from PrePW 2015 was used to change the curriculum and PrePW program. The 2016 students reported significantly greater confidence within all areas of practice: Clinical Practice [3.4 (0.6)], FSM [3.7 (0.6)] and CPHN [3.8 (0.6)], including confidence to commence placements overall [3.6 (0.6)] (P confidence in preparation for professional placement. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Journal of Human Nutrition and Dietetics © 2017 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

  10. Confidence-Based Learning CME: Overcoming Barriers in Irritable Bowel Syndrome with Constipation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cash, Brooks; Mitchner, Natasha A.; Ravyn, Dana

    2011-01-01

    Introduction: Performance of health care professionals depends on both medical knowledge and the certainty with which they possess it. Conventional continuing medical education interventions assess the correctness of learners' responses but do not determine the degree of confidence with which they hold incorrect information. This study describes…

  11. A Stereo Matching Algorithm Based on Four-Mo ded Census and Relative Confidence Plane Fitting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MEN Yubo; ZHANG Guoyin; MEN Chaoguang; LI Xiang; MA Ning

    2015-01-01

    A four-moded Census transform stereo matching algorithm using bidirectional constraint dynamic programming and relative confidence plane fitting is pro-posed to solve the problems of matching quality. Using the four-moded Census transform which adds a restrictive condition replaces traditional Census transform to improve matching accuracy and mean value of all pixels intensity replaces the center pixel intensity in the Census window to solve the problem of the center pixel distortion eff ectively, a refined initial local matching cost can be obtained. Dur-ing the disparity optimization, the difficulty of disparity computation in textureless areas is overcome by the esti-mated condition and defined relative confident pixels. Ex-periment results show that a better dense matching map can be obtained by the proposed algorithm.

  12. Semi-empiricial Likelihood Confidence Intervals for the Differences of Two Populations Based on Fractional Imputation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BAI YUN-XIA; QIN YONG-SONG; WANG LI-RONG; LI LING

    2009-01-01

    Suppose that there axe two populations x and y with missing data on both of them, where x has a distribution function F(.) which is unknown and y has form depending on some unknown parameter θ. Fractional imputation is used to fill in missing data. The asymptotic distributions of the semi-empirical likelihood ration statistic are obtained under some mild conditions. Then, empirical likelihood confidence intervals on the differences of x and y are constructed.

  13. Improving Nurses' Peripheral Intravenous Catheter Insertion Knowledge, Confidence, and Skills Using a Simulation-Based Blended Learning Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keleekai, Nowai L.; Schuster, Catherine A.; Murray, Connie L.; King, Mary Anne; Stahl, Brian R.; Labrozzi, Laura J.; Gallucci, Susan; LeClair, Matthew W.; Glover, Kevin R.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Peripheral intravenous catheter (PIVC) insertion is one of the most common invasive procedures performed in a hospital, but most nurses receive little formal training in this area. Blended PIVC insertion training programs that incorporate deliberate simulated practice have the potential to improve clinical practice and patient care. Methods The study was a randomized, wait-list control group with crossover using nurses on three medical/surgical units. Baseline PIVC knowledge, confidence, and skills assessments were completed for both groups. The intervention group then received a 2-hour PIVC online course, followed by an 8-hour live training course using a synergistic mix of three simulation tools. Both groups were then reassessed. After crossover, the wait-list group received the same intervention and both groups were reassessed. Results At baseline, both groups were similar for knowledge, confidence, and skills. Compared with the wait-list group, the intervention group had significantly higher scores for knowledge, confidence, and skills upon completing the training program. After crossover, the wait-list group had similarly higher scores for knowledge, confidence, and skills than the intervention group. Between the immediate preintervention and postintervention periods, the intervention group improved scores for knowledge by 31%, skills by 24%, and decreased confidence by 0.5%, whereas the wait-list group improved scores for knowledge by 28%, confidence by 16%, and skills by 15%. Conclusions Results demonstrate significant improvements in nurses' knowledge, confidence, and skills with the use of a simulation-based blended learning program for PIVC insertion. Transferability of these findings from a simulated environment into clinical practice should be further explored. PMID:27504890

  14. Influence of a School-Based Cooking Course on Students' Food Preferences, Cooking Skills, and Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahr, Rola; Sibeko, Lindiwe

    2017-03-01

    A quasi-experimental study was conducted to evaluate the influence of Project CHEF, a hands-on cooking and tasting program offered in Vancouver public schools, on students' food preferences, cooking skills, and confidence. Grade 4 and 5 students in an intervention group (n = 68) and a comparison group (n = 32) completed a survey at baseline and 2 to 3 weeks later. Students who participated in Project CHEF reported an increased familiarity and preference for the foods introduced through the program. This was statistically significant (P ≤ 0.05) for broccoli, swiss chard, carrots, and quinoa. A higher percentage of students exposed to Project CHEF reported a statistically significant increase (P ≤ 0.05) in: cutting vegetables and fruit (97% vs 81%), measuring ingredients (67% vs 44%), using a knife (94% vs 82%), and making a balanced meal on their own (69% vs 34%). They also reported a statistically significant increase (P ≤ 0.05) in confidence making the recipes introduced in the program: fruit salad (85% vs 81%), minestrone soup (25% vs 10%), and vegetable tofu stir fry (39% vs 26%). Involving students in hands-on cooking and tasting programs can increase their preferences for unpopular or unfamiliar foods and provide them with the skills and cooking confidence they need to prepare balanced meals.

  15. Assessment of individual agreements with repeated measurements based on generalized confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiroz, Jorge; Burdick, Richard K

    2009-01-01

    Individual agreement between two measurement systems is determined using the total deviation index (TDI) or the coverage probability (CP) criteria as proposed by Lin (2000) and Lin et al. (2002). We used a variance component model as proposed by Choudhary (2007). Using the bootstrap approach, Choudhary (2007), and generalized confidence intervals, we construct bounds on TDI and CP. A simulation study was conducted to assess whether the bounds maintain the stated type I error probability of the test. We also present a computational example to demonstrate the statistical methods described in the paper.

  16. Amplitude estimation of a sine function based on confidence intervals and Bayes' theorem

    CERN Document Server

    Eversmann, Dennis; Rosenthal, Marcel

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the amplitude estimation using data originating from a sine-like function as probability density function. If a simple least squares fit is used, a significant bias is observed for small amplitudes. It is shown that a proper treatment using the Feldman-Cousins algorithm of likelihood ratios allows one to construct improved confidence intervals. Using Bayes' theorem a probability density function is derived for the amplitude. It is used in an application to show that it leads to better estimates compared to a simple least squares fit.

  17. A NEW METHOD FOR CONSTRUCTING CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR CPM BASED ON FUZZY DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahram Sadeghpour Gildeh

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A measurement control system ensures that measuring equipment and measurement processes are fit for their intended use and its importance in achieving product quality objectives. In most real life applications, the observations are fuzzy. In some cases specification limits (SLs are not precise numbers and they are expressed in fuzzy terms, s o that the classical capability indices could not be applied. In this paper we obtain 100(1 - α% fuzzy confidence interval for C pm fuzzy process capability index, where instead of precise quality we have two membership functions for specification limits.

  18. High School Students' Proficiency and Confidence Levels in Displaying Their Understanding of Basic Electrolysis Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sia, Ding Teng; Treagust, David F.; Chandrasegaran, A. L.

    2012-01-01

    This study was conducted with 330 Form 4 (grade 10) students (aged 15-16 years) who were involved in a course of instruction on electrolysis concepts. The main purposes of this study were (1) to assess high school chemistry students' understanding of 19 major principles of electrolysis using a recently developed 2-tier multiple-choice diagnostic…

  19. High School Students' Proficiency and Confidence Levels in Displaying Their Understanding of Basic Electrolysis Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sia, Ding Teng; Treagust, David F.; Chandrasegaran, A. L.

    2012-01-01

    This study was conducted with 330 Form 4 (grade 10) students (aged 15-16 years) who were involved in a course of instruction on electrolysis concepts. The main purposes of this study were (1) to assess high school chemistry students' understanding of 19 major principles of electrolysis using a recently developed 2-tier multiple-choice diagnostic…

  20. Construction of Fuzzy Map for Autonomous Mobile Robots Based on Fuzzy Confidence Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung-Fu Hou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the use of fuzzy models to explicitly consider sensor uncertainty and finite resolution in solving the SLAM (simultaneous localization and mapping problem for autonomous mobile robots. The approach establishes fuzzy confidence models in describing occupied obstacles and available space. The problem is transformed into an optimization task of minimizing the alignment error between newly scanned local fuzzy maps and selected parts of a developing global fuzzy map. In aligning local fuzzy maps into a global fuzzy map, we developed a prediction strategy to crop the most potential part from the sensed local fuzzy maps to be overlapped with the global fuzzy map. A mobile vehicle equipped with a laser range finder, the Hokuyo URG-04LX, is used to demonstrate the procedure of fuzzy map building. Experimental results show that the proposed architecture is effective in generating a comprehensive global fuzzy map, which is suitable for both human comprehension and path design during real-time navigation.

  1. Empowerment of health professionals: how high level security education can raise awareness and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbst, Matthias; Busch, Christoph; Pharow, Peter; Blobel, Bernd

    2008-01-01

    Setting up networks among physicians and other health professionals in virtually any medical discipline is an important part of establishing eHealth world-wide. Medical research strategies nowadays advance diagnostic and therapeutic knowledge and guidelines allowing patients to benefits. Patient data and samples are among the most sensitive information and must carefully be protected according to rules of ethics and professional discretion as well as national and international privacy legislation. A lot has been said about "patient involvement, patient empowerment". What about health professionals? How can they be involved and empowered to address the paradigm shift towards a personalized health service provision? Information and communication technology (ICT), medical devices, and software applications are not among the topics health professionals typically deal with while being theoretically and practically trained to diagnose diseases and treat patients. An ICT-based training and information provision is required to update the ICT skills of health professionals. The German CAST association provides such an information platform where health professionals attend applied computer security education events. This article aims at describing how ICT and security education is provided to health professionals, and how these training courses are designed, structured, performed, and assessed.

  2. Assessment of risk to wildlife from ionising radiation: can initial screening tiers be used with a high level of confidence?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beresford, N A; Barnett, C L [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Lancaster, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP (United Kingdom); Hosseini, A; Brown, J E [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, Department of Emergency Preparedness and Environmental Radioactivity, Grini naeringspark 13 Postbox 55, NO-1332 Oesteraas (Norway); Cailes, C; Copplestone, D [Environment Agency, PO Box 12, Richard Fairclough House, Knutsford Road, Warrington WA4 1HG (United Kingdom); Beaugelin-Seiller, K, E-mail: nab@ceh.ac.u [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire DEI/SECRE, CE Cadarache-Batiment 159, BP 3, 13115 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France)

    2010-06-15

    A number of models are being used to assess the potential environmental impact of releases of radioactivity. These often use a tiered assessment structure whose first tier is designed to be highly conservative and simple to use. An aim of using this initial tier is to identify sites of negligible concern and to remove them from further consideration with a high degree of confidence. In this paper we compare the screening assessment outputs of three freely available models. The outputs of these models varied considerably in terms of estimated risk quotient (RQ) and the radionuclide-organism combinations identified as being the most limiting. A number of factors are identified as contributing to this variability: values of transfer parameters (concentration ratios and K{sub d}) used; organisms considered; different input options and how these are utilised in the assessment; assumptions as regards secular equilibrium; geometries and exposure scenarios. This large variation in RQ values between models means that the level of confidence required by users is not achieved. We recommend that the factors contributing to the variation in screening assessments be subjected to further investigation so that they can be more fully understood and assessors (and those reviewing assessment outputs) can better justify and evaluate the results obtained.

  3. Bayesian estimation of keyword confidence in Chinese continuous speech recognition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HAO Jie; LI Xing

    2003-01-01

    In a syllable-based speaker-independent Chinese continuous speech recognition system based on classical Hidden Markov Model (HMM), a Bayesian approach of keyword confidence estimation is studied, which utilizes both acoustic layer scores and syllable-based statistical language model (LM) score. The Maximum a posteriori (MAP) confidence measure is proposed, and the forward-backward algorithm calculating the MAP confidence scores is deduced. The performance of the MAP confidence measure is evaluated in keyword spotting application and the experiment results show that the MAP confidence scores provide high discriminability for keyword candidates. Furthermore, the MAP confidence measure can be applied to various speech recognition applications.

  4. A Novel Multiplayer Screen-Based Simulation Experience for African Learners Improved Confidence in Management of Postpartum Hemorrhage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey M. Taekman

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available IntroductionPostpartum hemorrhage (PPH remains a global challenge, affecting thirteen million women each year. In addition, PPH is a leading cause of maternal mortality in Asia and Africa. In the U.S.A., care of critically ill patients is often practiced using mannequin-based simulation. Mannequin-based simulation presents challenges in global health, particularly in low- or middle-income countries. We developed a novel multiplayer screen-based simulation in a virtual world enabling the practice of team coordination with PPH. We used this simulation with learners in Mulago, Uganda. We hypothesized that a multiplayer screen-based simulation experience would increase learner confidence in their ability to manage PPH.MethodsThe study design was a simple pre- and a post-intervention survey. Forty-eight interprofessional subjects participated in one of nine 1-h simulation sessions using the PPH software. A fifteen-question self-assessment administered before and after the intervention was designed to probe the areas of learning as defined by Bloom and Krathwohl: affective, cognitive, and psychomotor.ResultsCombined confidence scores increased significantly overall following the simulation experience and individually in each of the three categories of Bloom’s Taxonomy: affective, cognitive, and psychomotor.ConclusionWe provide preliminary evidence that multiplayer screen-based simulation represents a scalable, distributable form of learning that may be used effectively in global health education and training. Interestingly, despite our intervention being screen-based, our subjects showed improved confidence in their ability to perform psychomotor tasks. Although there is precedent for mental rehearsal improving performance, further research is needed to understand this finding.

  5. Statistics with confidence confidence intervals and statistical guidelines

    CERN Document Server

    Altman, Douglas; Bryant, Trevor; Gardner, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    This highly popular introduction to confidence intervals has been thoroughly updated and expanded. It includes methods for using confidence intervals, with illustrative worked examples and extensive guidelines and checklists to help the novice.

  6. Improving teamwork, confidence, and collaboration among members of a pediatric cardiovascular intensive care unit multidisciplinary team using simulation-based team training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa, Mayte I; Sepanski, Robert; Goldberg, Steven P; Shah, Samir

    2013-03-01

    Findings show that simulation-based team training (SBTT) is effective at increasing teamwork skills. Postpediatric cardiac surgery cardiac arrest (PPCS-CA) is a high-risk clinical situation with high morbidity and mortality. Whereas adult guidelines managing cardiac arrest after cardiac surgery are available, little exists for pediatric cardiac surgery. The authors developed a post-PPCS-CA algorithm and used SBTT to improve identification and management of PPCS-CA in the pediatric cardiovascular intensive care unit. Their goal was to determine whether participation aids in improving teamwork, confidence, and communication during these events. The authors developed a simulation-based training course using common postcardiac surgical emergency scenarios with specific learning objectives. Simulated scenarios are followed by structured debriefings. Participants were evaluated based on critical performance criteria, key elements in the PPCS-CA algorithm, and Team Strategies and Tools to Enhance Performance and Patient Safety (Team STEPPS) principles. Surveys performed before, immediately after, and 3 months after participation evaluated perception of skill, knowledge, and confidence. The study had 37 participants (23 nurses, 5 cardiology/critical care trainees, 5 respiratory therapists, and 4 noncategorized subjects). Confidence and skill in the roles of team leader, advanced airway management, and cardioversion/defibrillation were increased significantly (p < 0.05) immediately after training and 3 months later. A significant increase (p < 0.05) also was observed in the use of Team STEPPS concepts immediately after training and 3 months later. This study showed SBTT to be effective in improving communication and increasing confidence among members of a multidisciplinary team during crisis scenarios. Thus, SBTT provides an excellent tool for teaching and implementing new processes.

  7. Classroom-based Interventions and Teachers' Perceived Job Stressors and Confidence: Evidence from a Randomized Trial in Head Start Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Fuhua; Raver, C Cybele; Li-Grining, Christine

    2011-09-01

    Preschool teachers' job stressors have received increasing attention but have been understudied in the literature. We investigated the impacts of a classroom-based intervention, the Chicago School Readiness Project (CSRP), on teachers' perceived job stressors and confidence, as indexed by their perceptions of job control, job resources, job demands, and confidence in behavior management. Using a clustered randomized controlled trial (RCT) design, the CSRP provided multifaceted services to the treatment group, including teacher training and mental health consultation, which were accompanied by stress-reduction services and workshops. Overall, 90 teachers in 35 classrooms at 18 Head Start sites participated in the study. After adjusting for teacher and classroom factors and site fixed effects, we found that the CSRP had significant effects on the improvement of teachers' perceived job control and work-related resources. We also found that the CSRP decreased teachers' confidence in behavior management and had no statistically significant effects on job demands. Overall, we did not find significant moderation effects of teacher race/ethnicity, education, teaching experience, or teacher type. The implications for research and policy are discussed.

  8. Evaluating an undergraduate interprofessional simulation-based educational module: communication, teamwork, and confidence performing cardiac resuscitation skills

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marian Luctkar-Flude

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Marian Luctkar-Flude1, Cynthia Baker1, Cheryl Pulling1, Robert McGraw2, Damon Dagnone2, Jennifer Medves1, Carly Turner-Kelly11School of Nursing, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada; 2School of Medicine, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, CanadaPurpose: Interprofessional (IP collaboration during cardiac resuscitation is essential and contributes to patient wellbeing. The purpose of this study is to evaluate an innovative simulation-based IP educational module for undergraduate nursing and medical students on cardiac resuscitation skills.Methods: Nursing and medical trainees participated in a new cardiac resuscitation curriculum involving a 2-hour IP foundational cardiac resuscitation skills lab, followed by three 2-hour IP simulation sessions. Control group participants attended the existing two 2-hour IP simulation sessions. Study respondents (N = 71 completed a survey regarding their confidence performing cardiac resuscitation skills and their perceptions of IP collaboration.Results: Despite a consistent positive trend, only one out of 17 quantitative survey items were significantly improved for learners in the new curriculum. They were more likely to report feeling confident managing the airway during cardiac resuscitation (P = 0.001. Overall, quantitative results suggest that senior nursing and medical students were comfortable with IP communication and teamwork and confident with cardiac resuscitation skills. There were no significant differences between nursing students’ and medical students’ results. Through qualitative feedback, participants reported feeling comfortable learning with students from other professions and found value in the IP simulation sessions.Conclusion: Results from this study will inform ongoing restructuring of the IP cardiac resuscitation skills simulation module as defined by the action research process. Specific improvements that are suggested by these findings include strengthening the team

  9. Students' Confidence and Perceived Value for Participating in Cross-Cultural Wiki-Based Collaborations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ertmer, Peggy A.; Newby, Timothy J.; Liu, Wei; Tomory, Annette; Yu, Ji Hyun; Lee, Young Mi

    2011-01-01

    An international wiki-based collaboration was integrated into a large introductory educational technology course enrolling 346 students, divided into 43 teams. Student teams participated in a 5-week project in which they created wiki chapters about the educational uses of specific Web 2.0 tools. Two to four international students, located in their…

  10. A confidence metric for using neurobiological feedback in actor-critic reinforcement learning based brain-machine interfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noeline Wilhelmina Prins

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Brain-Machine Interfaces (BMIs can be used to restore function in people living with paralysis. Current BMIs require extensive calibration that increase the set-up times and external inputs for decoder training that may be difficult to produce in paralyzed individuals. Both these factors have presented challenges in transitioning the technology from research environments to activities of daily living (ADL. For BMIs to be seamlessly used in ADL, these issues should be handled with minimal external input thus reducing the need for a technician/caregiver to calibrate the system. Reinforcement Learning (RL based BMIs are a good tool to be used when there is no external training signal and can provide an adaptive modality to train BMI decoders. However, RL based BMIs are sensitive to the feedback provided to adapt the BMI. In actor-critic BMIs, this feedback is provided by the critic and the overall system performance is limited by the critic accuracy. In this work, we developed an adaptive BMI that could handle inaccuracies in the critic feedback in an effort to produce more accurate RL based BMIs. We developed a confidence measure, which indicated how appropriate the feedback is for updating the decoding parameters of the actor. The results show that with the new update formulation, the critic accuracy is no longer a limiting factor for the overall performance. We tested and validated the system on three different data sets: synthetic data generated by an Izhikevich neural spiking model, synthetic data with a Gaussian noise distribution, and data collected from a non-human primate engaged in a reaching task. All results indicated that the system with the critic confidence built in always outperformed the system without the critic confidence. Results of this study suggest the potential application of the technique in developing an autonomous BMI that does not need an external signal for training or extensive calibration.

  11. Using Incomplete Trios to Boost Confidence in Family Based Association Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhankani, Varsha; Gibbs, David L; Knijnenburg, Theo; Kramer, Roger; Vockley, Joseph; Niederhuber, John; Shmulevich, Ilya; Bernard, Brady

    2016-01-01

    Most currently available family based association tests are designed to account only for nuclear families with complete genotypes for parents as well as offspring. Due to the availability of increasingly less expensive generation of whole genome sequencing information, genetic studies are able to collect data for more families and from large family cohorts with the goal of improving statistical power. However, due to missing genotypes, many families are not included in the family based association tests, negating the benefits of large scale sequencing data. Here, we present the CIFBAT method to use incomplete families in Family Based Association Test (FBAT) to evaluate robustness against missing data. CIFBAT uses quantile intervals of the FBAT statistic by randomly choosing valid completions of incomplete family genotypes based on Mendelian inheritance rules. By considering all valid completions equally likely and computing quantile intervals over many randomized iterations, CIFBAT avoids assumption of a homogeneous population structure or any particular missingness pattern in the data. Using simulated data, we show that the quantile intervals computed by CIFBAT are useful in validating robustness of the FBAT statistic against missing data and in identifying genomic markers with higher precision. We also propose a novel set of candidate genomic markers for uterine related abnormalities from analysis of familial whole genome sequences, and provide validation for a previously established set of candidate markers for Type 1 diabetes. We have provided a software package that incorporates TDT, robustTDT, FBAT, and CIFBAT. The data format proposed for the software uses half the memory space that the standard FBAT format (PED) files use, making it efficient for large scale genome wide association studies.

  12. Using incomplete trios to boost confidence in family based association studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varsha eDhankani

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Most currently available family based association tests are designed to account only for nuclear families with complete genotypes for parents as well as offspring. Due to the availability of increasingly less expensive generation of whole genome sequencing information, genetic studies are able to collect data for more families and from large family cohorts with the goal of improving statistical power. However, due to missing genotypes, many families are not included in the family based association tests, negating the benefits of large scale sequencing data. Here, we present the CIFBAT method to use incomplete families in Family Based Association Test (FBAT to evaluate robustness against missing data. CIFBAT uses quantile intervals of the FBAT statistic by randomly choosing valid completions of incomplete family genotypes based on Mendelian inheritance rules. By considering all valid completions equally likely and computing quantile intervals over several randomized iterations, CIFBAT avoids assumption of a homogeneous population structure or any particular missingness pattern in the data. Using simulated data, we show that the quantile intervals computed by CIFBAT are useful in validating robustness of the FBAT statistic against missing data and in identifying genomic markers with higher precision. We also propose a novel set of candidate genomic markers for uterine related abnormalities from analysis of familial whole genome sequences, and provide validation for a previously established set of candidate markers for Type 1 diabetes. We have provided a software package that incorporates TDT, robustTDT, FBAT and CIFBAT. The data format proposed for the software uses half the memory space that the standard FBAT format (PED files use, making it efficient for large scale genome wide association studies.

  13. Confidence-Building in Cyberspace: A Comparison of Territorial and Weapons-based Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Service Attacks • Cyberespionage • Preemptive strikes • Weaponization of code (Malware) • Encryption Issues How Addressed International Courts...risk of preemptive action by either side was high. If we consider how a security dilemma in real space is addressed when it is difficult to...distinguish between offensive and de- fensive activities, and between preemptive war and offensive war, we can draw insights into how similar dilemmas in

  14. Increasing the Confidence in Student's $t$ Interval

    OpenAIRE

    Goutis, Constantinos; Casella, George

    1992-01-01

    The usual confidence interval, based on Student's $t$ distribution, has conditional confidence that is larger than the nominal confidence level. Although this fact is known, along with the fact that increased conditional confidence can be used to improve a confidence assertion, the confidence assertion of Student's $t$ interval has never been critically examined. We do so here, and construct a confidence estimator that allows uniformly higher confidence in the interval and is closer (than $1 ...

  15. Increasing the Confidence in Student's $t$ Interval

    OpenAIRE

    Goutis, Constantinos; Casella, George

    1992-01-01

    The usual confidence interval, based on Student's $t$ distribution, has conditional confidence that is larger than the nominal confidence level. Although this fact is known, along with the fact that increased conditional confidence can be used to improve a confidence assertion, the confidence assertion of Student's $t$ interval has never been critically examined. We do so here, and construct a confidence estimator that allows uniformly higher confidence in the interval and is closer (than $1 ...

  16. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…

  17. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…

  18. Global high resolution versus Limited Area Model climate change projections over Europe: quantifying confidence level from PRUDENCE results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Meteo-France, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Jones, R.G.; Hassell, D.C. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Devon (United Kingdom); Wild, M.; Vidale, P.L. [Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich (Switzerland); Giorgi, F.; Kucharski, F. [Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Christensen, J.H. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen (Denmark); Rockel, B. [Institute of Coastal Research, GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Geesthacht (Germany); Jacob, D. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Kjellstroem, E. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Castro, M. de. [Universidad de Castilla La Mancha, Dept. de Ciencias Ambientales, Toledo (Spain); Hurk, B. van den [KNMI, Postbus 201, AE De Bilt (Netherlands)

    2005-11-01

    Four high resolution atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature and sea-ice extent. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071-2100 and the 1961-1990 means is compared with the same diagnostic obtained with nine Regional Climate Models (RCM) all driven by the Hadley Centre atmospheric GCM. The seasonal mean response for 2m temperature and precipitation is investigated. For temperature, GCMs and RCMs behave similarly, except that GCMs exhibit a larger spread. However, during summer, the spread of the RCMs - in particular in terms of precipitation - is larger than that of the GCMs. This indicates that the European summer climate is strongly controlled by parameterized physics and/or high-resolution processes. The temperature response is larger than the systematic error. The situation is different for precipitation. The model bias is twice as large as the climate response. The confidence in PRUDENCE results comes from the fact that the models have a similar response to the IPCC-SRES A2 forcing, whereas their systematic errors are more spread. In addition, GCM precipitation response is slightly but significantly different from that of the RCMs. (orig.)

  19. Adaptive grid-based confidence assessment for synthetic optoelectronic images by Physical Reasonable Infrared Scene Simulation Engine (PRISSE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xin; Sun, Hao; Ma, Xiangchao; Wang, Yucheng; Han, Yiping

    2017-09-01

    Like visible spectrum, synthetic infrared scenes reflect the invisible world of infrared features. Propagation of a typical infrared radiation involves a variety of sources of different sizes, shapes, intensities, roughness, temperature, etc., all of which would impose impacts on the fidelity of the synthetic images. Assessing the confidence of a synthetic infrared scene is therefore not so intuitive as evaluating the quality of a visible image. An adaptive grid-based method is proposed in this paper for similarity assessments between synthetic infrared images and the corresponding real infrared images, which is on a grid-by-grid basis. Different from many traditional methods, each grid in our work is weighted by a value that is simulated by a 2D Gamma distribution. Introducing adaptive grids and exerting a weighting value on each grid are the aspects of our method. To investigate the effectiveness of our method, an experiment was conducted for taking real mid-wavelength infrared (MWIR) images, and the corresponding synthetic MWIR images were simulated by Physical Reasonable Infrared Scene Simulation Engine (PRISSE). The confidence of similarity assessments evaluated by our method is then compared to some popularly-used traditional assessment methods.

  20. Fostering RN-to-BSN students' confidence in searching online for scholarly information on evidence-based practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCulley, Carol; Jones, Melissa

    2014-01-01

    Graduates of bachelor of science in nursing (BSN) programs are increasingly expected to take an active role in assessing and improving nursing practice, and nurse educators are expected to prepare BSN students for this expanding role. Information literacy, the ability to search for, find, get, and use scholarly information to inform nursing practice, should be a critical component of nursing education. This article focuses on five strategies for teaching information literacy to registered nurse (RN)-to-BSN students in an online continuing education environment. These strategies include the addition of an embedded librarian to the online courses, collaboration between the librarian and nursing faculty, a subject guide with access to resources and tutorials at the point of need, student-centered learning with authentic assignments, and reflection on the learning process. Student reflections suggest that these strategies result in increased confidence in searching for and finding the evidence-based scholarship that they need.

  1. Derivation of confidence intervals of service measures in a base-stock inventory control system with low-frequent demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian

    We explore a base-stock system with backlogging where the demand process is a compound renewal process and the compound element is a delayed geometric distribution. For this setting it is proven in [4] that the long-run average service measures order fill rate (OFR) and volume fill rate (VFR......) are equal in values. In [4] it is also demonstrated that although equal ex ante one will ex post observe differences as actual sample paths are different. By including a low-frequency assumption in the model, we are able to derive mathematical expressions of the confidence intervals one will get if OFR...... and VFR are estimated in a simulation using the regenerative method. Through numerical examples we show that of the two service measures it is OFR that can be estimated most accurately. However, simulation results show that the opposite conclusion holds if we instead consider finitehorizon service...

  2. Confidence intervals for the MMPI-2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munley, P H

    1991-08-01

    The confidence intervals for the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI-2) clinical scales were investigated. Based on the clinical scale reliabilities published in the MMPI-2 manual, estimated true scores, standard errors of measurement for estimated true scores, and 95% confidence intervals centered around estimated true scores were calculated at 5-point MMPI-2 T-score intervals. The relationships between obtained T-scores, estimated true T-scores, scale reliabilities, and confidence intervals are discussed. The possible role of error measurement in defining scale high point and code types is noted.

  3. How to confidently teach EBM on foot: development and evaluation of a web-based e-learning course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weberschock, Tobias; Sorinola, Olanrewaju; Thangaratinam, Shakila; Oude Rengerink, Katrien; Arvanitis, Theodoros N; Khan, Khalid S

    2013-10-01

    Scarcity of well-trained clinical tutors is a key constraint in integrating teaching of evidence-based medicine (EBM) into clinical activities. We developed a web-based educational course for clinical trainers to confidently teach EBM principles in everyday practice. Its e-learning modules defined the learning objectives and incorporated video clips of practical and effective EBM teaching methods for exploiting educational opportunities in six different clinical settings. We evaluated the course with clinical tutors in different specialties across six European countries using a questionnaire to capture learning achievement against preset objectives. Among 56 tutors, 47 participants (84%) improved their scores from baseline. The mean pre-course score was 69.2 (SD=10.4), which increased to 77.3 (SD=11.7) postcourse (pEBM teaching and learning based on real clinical scenarios in the workplace can be useful in facilitating EBM teaching on foot. It can be integrated in the continuing professional development programmes for clinical trainers.

  4. Varieties of Confidence Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousineau, Denis

    2017-01-01

    Error bars are useful to understand data and their interrelations. Here, it is shown that confidence intervals of the mean (CI M s) can be adjusted based on whether the objective is to highlight differences between measures or not and based on the experimental design (within- or between-group designs). Confidence intervals (CIs) can also be adjusted to take into account the sampling mechanisms and the population size (if not infinite). Names are proposed to distinguish the various types of CIs and the assumptions underlying them, and how to assess their validity is explained. The various CIs presented here are easily obtained from a succession of multiplicative adjustments to the basic (unadjusted) CI width. All summary results should present a measure of precision, such as CIs, as this information is complementary to effect sizes.

  5. Weighted profile likelihood-based confidence interval for the difference between two proportions with paired binomial data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Vivek; Saha, Krishna K; Banerjee, Tathagata; Evans, John C

    2014-07-30

    Inference on the difference between two binomial proportions in the paired binomial setting is often an important problem in many biomedical investigations. Tang et al. (2010, Statistics in Medicine) discussed six methods to construct confidence intervals (henceforth, we abbreviate it as CI) for the difference between two proportions in paired binomial setting using method of variance estimates recovery. In this article, we propose weighted profile likelihood-based CIs for the difference between proportions of a paired binomial distribution. However, instead of the usual likelihood, we use weighted likelihood that is essentially making adjustments to the cell frequencies of a 2 × 2 table in the spirit of Agresti and Min (2005, Statistics in Medicine). We then conduct numerical studies to compare the performances of the proposed CIs with that of Tang et al. and Agresti and Min in terms of coverage probabilities and expected lengths. Our numerical study clearly indicates that the weighted profile likelihood-based intervals and Jeffreys interval (cf. Tang et al.) are superior in terms of achieving the nominal level, and in terms of expected lengths, they are competitive. Finally, we illustrate the use of the proposed CIs with real-life examples.

  6. Solar PV power generation forecasting using hybrid intelligent algorithms and uncertainty quantification based on bootstrap confidence intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    AlHakeem, Donna Ibrahim

    This thesis focuses on short-term photovoltaic forecasting (STPVF) for the power generation of a solar PV system using probabilistic forecasts and deterministic forecasts. Uncertainty estimation, in the form of a probabilistic forecast, is emphasized in this thesis to quantify the uncertainties of the deterministic forecasts. Two hybrid intelligent models are proposed in two separate chapters to perform the STPVF. In Chapter 4, the framework of the deterministic proposed hybrid intelligent model is presented, which is a combination of wavelet transform (WT) that is a data filtering technique and a soft computing model (SCM) that is generalized regression neural network (GRNN). Additionally, this chapter proposes a model that is combined as WT+GRNN and is utilized to conduct the forecast of two random days in each season for 1-hour-ahead to find the power generation. The forecasts are analyzed utilizing accuracy measures equations to determine the model performance and compared with another SCM. In Chapter 5, the framework of the proposed model is presented, which is a combination of WT, a SCM based on radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), and a population-based stochastic particle swarm optimization (PSO). Chapter 5 proposes a model combined as a deterministic approach that is represented as WT+RBFNN+PSO, and then a probabilistic forecast is conducted utilizing bootstrap confidence intervals to quantify uncertainty from the output of WT+RBFNN+PSO. In Chapter 5, the forecasts are conducted by furthering the tests done in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 forecasts the power generation of two random days in each season for 1-hour-ahead, 3-hour-ahead, and 6-hour-ahead. Additionally, different types of days were also forecasted in each season such as a sunny day (SD), cloudy day (CD), and a rainy day (RD). These forecasts were further analyzed using accuracy measures equations, variance and uncertainty estimation. The literature that is provided supports that the proposed

  7. The role of confidence in world-class sport performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Kate; Thomas, Owen; Maynard, Ian; Bawden, Mark

    2009-09-01

    In this study, we examined the role of confidence in relation to the cognitive, affective, and behavioural responses it elicits, and identified the factors responsible for debilitating confidence within the organizational subculture of world-class sport. Using Vealey's (2001) integrative model of sport confidence as a broad conceptual base, 14 athletes (7 males, 7 females) were interviewed in response to the research aims. Analysis indicated that high sport confidence facilitated performance through its positive effect on athletes' thoughts, feelings, and behaviours. However, the athletes participating in this study were susceptible to factors that served to debilitate their confidence. These factors appeared to be associated with the sources from which they derived their confidence and influenced to some extent by gender. Thus, the focus of interventions designed to enhance sport confidence must reflect the individual needs of the athlete, and might involve identifying an athlete's sources and types of confidence, and ensuring that these are intact during competition preparation phases.

  8. Feature Augmentation for Learning Confidence Measure in Stereo Matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sunok; Min, Dongbo; Kim, Seungryong; Sohn, Kwanghoon

    2017-09-08

    Confidence estimation is essential for refining stereo matching results through a post-processing step. This problem has recently been studied using a learning-based approach, which demonstrates a substantial improvement on conventional simple non-learning based methods. However, the formulation of learning-based methods that individually estimates the confidence of each pixel disregards spatial coherency that might exist in the confidence map, thus providing a limited performance under challenging conditions. Our key observation is that the confidence features and resulting confidence maps are smoothly varying in the spatial domain, and highly correlated within the local regions of an image. We present a new approach that imposes spatial consistency on the confidence estimation. Specifically, a set of robust confidence features is extracted from each superpixel decomposed using the Gaussian mixture model (GMM), and then these features are concatenated with pixel-level confidence features. The features are then enhanced through adaptive filtering in the feature domain. In addition, the resulting confidence map, estimated using the confidence features with a random regression forest, is further improved through K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) based aggregation scheme on both pixel-and superpixel-level. To validate the proposed confidence estimation scheme, we employ cost modulation or ground control points (GCPs) based optimization in stereo matching. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on various benchmarks including challenging outdoor scenes.

  9. Processing of recognition information and additional cues: A model-based analysis of choice, confidence, and response time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Glockner

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Research on the processing of recognition information has focused on testing the recognition heuristic (RH. On the aggregate, the noncompensatory use of recognition information postulated by the RH was rejected in several studies, while RH could still account for a considerable proportion of choices. These results can be explained if either a a part of the subjects used RH or b nobody used it but its choice predictions were accidentally in line with predictions of the strategy used. In the current study, which exemplifies a new approach to model testing, we determined individuals' decision strategies based on a maximum-likelihood classification method, taking into account choices, response times and confidence ratings simultaneously. Unlike most previous studies of the RH, our study tested the RH under conditions in which we provided information about cue values of unrecognized objects (which we argue is fairly common and thus of some interest. For 77.5% of the subjects, overall behavior was best explained by a compensatory parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS strategy. The proportion of subjects using an enhanced RH heuristic (RHe was negligible (up to 7.5%; 15% of the subjects seemed to use a take the best strategy (TTB. A more-fine grained analysis of the supplemental behavioral parameters conditional on strategy use supports PCS but calls into question process assumptions for apparent users of RH, RHe, and TTB within our experimental context. Our results are consistent with previous literature highlighting the importance of individual strategy classification as compared to aggregated analyses.

  10. Effect of a community-based Argentine tango dance program on functional balance and confidence in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinley, Patricia; Jacobson, Allison; Leroux, Alain; Bednarczyk, Victoria; Rossignol, Michel; Fung, Joyce

    2008-10-01

    Tango-dancing and walking programs are compared in nondemented seniors at risk for falls. Fallers (N = 30) age 62-91 were randomly assigned to a 10-wk (40 hr, 2 hr 2x/wk) tango class or walk group. The Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale, sit-to-stand scores, and normal and fast walk were measured pre-, post-, and 1 month postintervention. Two-way repeated-measures ANOVAs indicated a significant main effect (p tango because of high baseline mean for the walk group. Clinical improvements measured using Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly scoring were greater for the tango group. From these preliminary results it is suggested that although both interventions are effective activities for increasing strength and walk speed, tango might result in greater improvements than walking in balance skills and in walking speed in the 10-wk intervention. The study needs to be repeated with a greater sample size to determine the effectiveness of walking on fear of falling.

  11. Upsampling range camera depth maps using high-resolution vision camera and pixel-level confidence classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Chao; Vaishampayan, Vinay; Zhang, Yifu

    2011-03-01

    We consider the problem of upsampling a low-resolution depth map generated by a range camera, by using information from one or more additional high-resolution vision cameras. The goal is to provide an accurate high resolution depth map from the viewpoint of one of the vision cameras. We propose an algorithm that first converts the low resolution depth map into a depth/disparity map through coordinate mappings into the coordinate frame of one vision camera, then classifies the pixels into regions according to whether the range camera depth map is trustworthy, and finally refine the depth values for the pixels in the untrustworthy regions. For the last refinement step, both a method based on graph cut optimization and that based on bilateral filtering are examined. Experimental results show that the proposed methods using classification are able to upsample the depth map by a factor of 10 x 10 with much improved depth details, with significantly better accuracy comparing to those without the classification. The improvements are visually perceptible on a 3D auto-stereoscopic display.

  12. Confidence ellipses: A variation based on parametric bootstrapping applicable on Multiple Factor Analysis results for rapid graphical evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dehlholm, Christian; Brockhoff, Per B.; Bredie, Wender L. P.

    2012-01-01

    A new way of parametric bootstrapping allows similar construction of confidence ellipses applicable on all results from Multiple Factor Analysis obtained from the FactoMineR package in the statistical program R. With this procedure, a similar approach will be applied to Multiple Factor Analysis...... results regardless of the origin of data and the nature of the original variables. The approach is suitable for getting an overview of product confidence intervals and also applicable for data obtained from ‘one repetition’ evaluations. Furthermore, it is a convenient way to get an overview of variations...

  13. Dental esthetics and its impact on psycho-social well-being and dental self confidence: a campus based survey of north Indian university students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afroz, Shaista; Rathi, Shraddha; Rajput, Geeta; Rahman, Sajjad Abdur

    2013-12-01

    To evaluate the subjects perceived satisfaction of their dental appearance and to compare it with a various attitudes and practices which may affect social and psychological behavior and dental self confidence. This was a questionnaire based cross-sectional study done in the campus of Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh (India). 426 students participated in the study. Questions were pooled in from various components of psychosocial impact of dental esthetics questionnaire (PIDAQ) for various attitudes and practices. Quantitative analysis was done using descriptive analysis and Chi square test using SPSS software. Majority of subjects (57.7 %) was highly satisfied with their smile, more than one-third (37.3 %) were satisfied and there were only 4.9 % subjects who were not satisfied with their smile. Tooth color was the most common (27.9 %) smile component causing dissatisfaction amongst the subjects. More than two-fifth (42.5 %) liked to show their teeth, one-half (49.5 %) liked to see their teeth in mirror, photographs and videos, almost one quarter (23.9 %) subjects used to hide their teeth while smiling. As compared to females, significantly higher proportion of males was conscious of opposite sex while smiling. The proportion of subjects which was highly satisfied with their smile was significantly higher for the item 'like to show their teeth and who liked to see their teeth in mirror, photographs and video' whereas for all the other items the proportion of respondents which was not satisfied with their smile was significantly higher. Self perceived satisfaction of dental esthetics has positive impact on person's social and psychological behavior and dental self confidence.

  14. Teaching evidence-based practice (EBP) to speech-language therapy students: are students competent and confident EBP users?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spek, B; Wieringa-de Waard, M; Lucas, C; van Dijk, N

    2013-01-01

    The importance and value of the principles of evidence-based practice (EBP) in the decision-making process is recognized by speech-language therapists (SLTs) worldwide and as a result curricula for speech-language therapy students incorporated EBP principles. However, the willingness actually to use EBP principles in their future profession not only depends on EBP knowledge and skills, but also on self-efficacy and task value students perceive towards EBP. To investigate the relation between EBP knowledge and skills, and EBP self-efficacy and task value in different year groups of Dutch SLT students. Students from three year groups filled in a tool that measured EBP knowledge and skills: the Dutch Modified Fresno (DMF). EBP self-efficacy and task value were assessed by using a 20-item questionnaire. Both tools were validated for this population. Mean scores for the three year groups were calculated and tested for group differences using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with a post-hoc Games-Howell procedure. With a multiple linear regression technique it was assessed whether EBP self-efficacy and task value predict learning achievement scores on the DMF. Other possible predictors included in the model were: level of prior education, standard of English, having had mathematics in prior education and the SLT study year. A total of 149 students filled in both measurement tools. Mean scores on EBP knowledge and skills were significantly different for the three year groups, with students who were further along their studies scoring higher on the DMF. Mean scores on the EBP self-efficacy and task value questionnaire were the same for the three year groups: all students valued EBP positive but self-efficacy was low in all groups. Of the possible predictors, only the year in which students study and EBP self-efficacy were significant predictors for learning achievements in EBP. Despite a significant increase in EBP knowledge and skills over the years as assessed by

  15. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    modelling strategy is applied to different training sets. For each modelling strategy we estimate a confidence score based on the same repeated bootstraps. A new decomposition of the expected Brier score is obtained, as well as the estimates of population average confidence scores. The latter can be used...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...

  16. The Model Confidence Set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.

    The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The M...

  17. Increasing Mobility Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Español In Your Area NPF Shop Increasing Mobility Confidence To increase your confidence moving, you have to move! Make Text Smaller ... It might seem counterintuitive, but to increase your confidence moving, you have to move! Build physical activity ...

  18. Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A

    2017-07-01

    Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.

  19. A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in community-based cluster randomization trials with a binary outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan

    2016-04-01

    Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith

  20. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.

  1. The Effect of High-Fidelity Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) Simulation on Athletic Training Student Knowledge, Confidence, Emotions, and Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tivener, Kristin Ann; Gloe, Donna Sue

    2015-01-01

    Context: High-fidelity simulation is widely used in healthcare for the training and professional education of students though literature of its application to athletic training education remains sparse. Objective: This research attempts to address a wide-range of data. This includes athletic training student knowledge acquisition from…

  2. The Effect of High-Fidelity Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) Simulation on Athletic Training Student Knowledge, Confidence, Emotions, and Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tivener, Kristin Ann; Gloe, Donna Sue

    2015-01-01

    Context: High-fidelity simulation is widely used in healthcare for the training and professional education of students though literature of its application to athletic training education remains sparse. Objective: This research attempts to address a wide-range of data. This includes athletic training student knowledge acquisition from…

  3. Prediction Models of Retention Indices for Increased Confidence in Structural Elucidation during Complex Matrix Analysis: Application to Gas Chromatography Coupled with High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dossin, Eric; Martin, Elyette; Diana, Pierrick; Castellon, Antonio; Monge, Aurelien; Pospisil, Pavel; Bentley, Mark; Guy, Philippe A

    2016-08-02

    Monitoring of volatile and semivolatile compounds was performed using gas chromatography (GC) coupled to high-resolution electron ionization mass spectrometry, using both headspace and liquid injection modes. A total of 560 reference compounds, including 8 odd n-alkanes, were analyzed and experimental linear retention indices (LRI) were determined. These reference compounds were randomly split into training (n = 401) and test (n = 151) sets. LRI for all 552 reference compounds were also calculated based upon computational Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (QSPR) models, using two independent approaches RapidMiner (coupled to Dragon) and ACD/ChromGenius software. Correlation coefficients for experimental versus predicted LRI values calculated for both training and test set compounds were calculated at 0.966 and 0.949 for RapidMiner and at 0.977 and 0.976 for ACD/ChromGenius, respectively. In addition, the cross-validation correlation was calculated at 0.96 from RapidMiner and the residual standard error value obtained from ACD/ChromGenius was 53.635. These models were then used to predict LRI values for several thousand compounds reported present in tobacco and tobacco-related fractions, plus a range of specific flavor compounds. It was demonstrated that using the mean of the LRI values predicted by RapidMiner and ACD/ChromGenius, in combination with accurate mass data, could enhance the confidence level for compound identification from the analysis of complex matrixes, particularly when the two predicted LRI values for a compound were in close agreement. Application of this LRI modeling approach to matrixes with unknown composition has already enabled the confirmation of 23 postulated compounds, demonstrating its ability to facilitate compound identification in an analytical workflow. The goal is to reduce the list of putative candidates to a reasonable relevant number that can be obtained and measured for confirmation.

  4. Reader Accuracy and Confidence in Diagnosing Diffuse Lung Disease on High-Resolution Computed Tomography of the Lungs: Impact of Sampling Frequency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sundaram, B.; Gross, B.H.; Oh, E.; Mueller, N.; Myles, J.D.; Kazerooni, E.A. (Dept. of Radiology, Michigan Institute for Clinical Health Research, Univ. of Michigan Health System, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States))

    2008-10-15

    Background: The accuracy of the number of high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) images necessary to diagnose diffuse lung disease (DLD) is not well established. Purpose: To evaluate the impact of HRCT sampling frequency on reader confidence and accuracy for diagnosing DLD. Material and Methods: HRCT images of 100 consecutive patients with proven DLD were reviewed. They were: 48 usual interstitial pneumonia, 22 sarcoidosis, six hypersensitivity pneumonitis, five each of desquamative interstitial pneumonitis, eosinophilic granulomatosis, and lymphangioleiomyomatosis, and nine others. Inspiratory images at 1-cm increments throughout the lungs and three specified levels formed complete and limited examinations. In random order, three experts (readers 1, 2, and 3) ranked their top three diagnoses and rated confidence for their top diagnosis, independently and blinded to clinical information. Results: Using the complete versus limited examinations for correct first-choice diagnosis, accuracy for reader 1 (R1) was 81% versus 80%, respectively, for reader 2 (R2) 70% versus 70%, and for reader 3 (R3) 64% versus 59%. Reader accuracy within their top three choices for complete versus limited examinations was: R1 91% versus 91% of cases, respectively, R2 84% versus 83%, and R3 79% versus 72% of cases. No statistically significant differences were found between the diagnosis methods (P=0.28 for first diagnosis and P=0.17 for top three choices). The confidence intervals for individual raters showed considerable overlap, and the point estimates are almost identical. The mean interreader agreement for complete versus limited HRCT for both top and top three diagnoses were the same (moderate and fair, respectively). The mean intrareader agreement between complete and limited HRCT for top and top three diagnoses were substantial and moderate, respectively. Conclusion: Overall reader accuracy and confidence in diagnosis did not significantly differ when fewer or more HRCT images

  5. Fast Bootstrapping-Based Estimation of Confidence Intervals of Expression Levels and Differential Expression from RNA-Seq Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandric, Igor; Temate-Tiagueu, Yvette; Shcheglova, Tatiana; Al Seesi, Sahar; Zelikovsky, Alex; Mandoiu, Ion I

    2017-06-10

    This note presents IsoEM2 and IsoDE2, new versions with enhanced features and faster runtime of the IsoEM and IsoDE packages for expression level estimation and differential expression. IsoEM2 estimates FPKM and TPM levels for genes and isoforms with confidence intervals through bootstrapping, while IsoDE2 performs differential expression (DE) analysis using the bootstrap samples generated by IsoEM2. Both tools are available with a command line interface as well as a graphical user interface through wrappers for the Galaxy platform. The source code of this software suite is available at https://github.com/mandricigor/isoem2 . The Galaxy wrappers are available at https://toolshed.g2.bx.psu.edu/view/saharlcc/isoem2_isode2/c6d2dbdf0a4d. imandric1@student.gsu.edu , ion@engr.uconn.edu.

  6. Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2011-01-01

    This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...

  7. Strengthening Public Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herlihy, John J.

    Board members and administrators can build public confidence in their schools by taking every opportunity to communicate positive attitudes about the people in the schools. As leaders, they have the responsibility to use people power to promote the schools. If school employees feel good about their jobs, they will build confidence within the…

  8. THE IMPACT OF AN EVIDENCE-BASED MEDICINE WORKSHOP ON RESIDENTS’ ATTITUDES TOWARDS AND CONFIDENCE IN THE DAILY PRACTICE OF EVIDENCE-BASED MEDICINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karyn Baum, MD

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Evidence-based medicine (EBM is a part of many medical school and residency curricula worldwide, but there is little research into the most effective methods to teach these skills. Purpose: To evaluate whether a course on EBM utilizing adult learning principals leads to both immediate and short-term attitudinal, confidence, and behavioral change. Methods: Seventy-three (73 Internal Medicine and Internal Medicine/Pediatric residents attended a half-day seminar on EBM. Participants completed pre- and post-course 5-point Likert questionnaires, and set two personal goals for integrating EBM into their daily practice. We performed nonparametric two-sample Wilcoxon Rank-Sum tests to compare responses. We also elicited the self-reported success of the residents in meeting their goals one-month post-course. Results: Attitudes about EBM improved (3.5 pre-course vs. 3.7 post-course, as well as self-reported EBM skills (3.0 vs. 3.3. Seventy-two percent of residents reported having met at least one of their two goals for the integration of EBM into their practice. Conclusions: An EBM workshop based upon adult learning principles was successful in meeting multiple educational goals. The links between andragogy, learners’ internal drive for behavior change, and successful EBM education should be further explored.

  9. Communicating Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk, Uncertainty and Expert Confidence: Induced Seismicity of Deep Geothermal Energy and Shale Gas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoblauch, Theresa A K; Stauffacher, Michael; Trutnevyte, Evelina

    2017-08-10

    Subsurface energy activities entail the risk of induced seismicity including low-probability high-consequence (LPHC) events. For designing respective risk communication, the scientific literature lacks empirical evidence of how the public reacts to different written risk communication formats about such LPHC events and to related uncertainty or expert confidence. This study presents findings from an online experiment (N = 590) that empirically tested the public's responses to risk communication about induced seismicity and to different technology frames, namely deep geothermal energy (DGE) and shale gas (between-subject design). Three incrementally different formats of written risk communication were tested: (i) qualitative, (ii) qualitative and quantitative, and (iii) qualitative and quantitative with risk comparison. Respondents found the latter two the easiest to understand, the most exact, and liked them the most. Adding uncertainty and expert confidence statements made the risk communication less clear, less easy to understand and increased concern. Above all, the technology for which risks are communicated and its acceptance mattered strongly: respondents in the shale gas condition found the identical risk communication less trustworthy and more concerning than in the DGE conditions. They also liked the risk communication overall less. For practitioners in DGE or shale gas projects, the study shows that the public would appreciate efforts in describing LPHC risks with numbers and optionally risk comparisons. However, there seems to be a trade-off between aiming for transparency by disclosing uncertainty and limited expert confidence, and thereby decreasing clarity and increasing concern in the view of the public. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  11. Professional confidence: a concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana

    2012-03-01

    Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.

  12. Trust vs. Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    defined. Although there are many different definitions of trust, our definition (Adams and Webb, 2003) is as follows: Trust is a psychological state...Judgments: Experiments on the Time to Determine Confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology : Human Perception and Performance, 24(3), 929-945. BARANSKI...PETRUSIC, W. (2001). Testing Architectures of the Decision-Confidence Relation. Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology , 55(3): 195-206. PETRUSIC, W

  13. On the Prevalence of Alternative Conceptions on Acid-Base Chemistry among Secondary Students: Insights from Cognitive and Confidence Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoe, Kai Yee; Subramaniam, R.

    2016-01-01

    This study presents an analysis of alternative conceptions (ACs) on acid--base chemistry harbored by grade 9 students in Singapore. The ACs were obtained by the development and validation of a 4-tier diagnostic instrument. It is among the very few studies in the science education literature that have focused on examining results based also on…

  14. A Mathematical Framework for Statistical Decision Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hangya, Balázs; Sanders, Joshua I; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-09-01

    Decision confidence is a forecast about the probability that a decision will be correct. From a statistical perspective, decision confidence can be defined as the Bayesian posterior probability that the chosen option is correct based on the evidence contributing to it. Here, we used this formal definition as a starting point to develop a normative statistical framework for decision confidence. Our goal was to make general predictions that do not depend on the structure of the noise or a specific algorithm for estimating confidence. We analytically proved several interrelations between statistical decision confidence and observable decision measures, such as evidence discriminability, choice, and accuracy. These interrelationships specify necessary signatures of decision confidence in terms of externally quantifiable variables that can be empirically tested. Our results lay the foundations for a mathematically rigorous treatment of decision confidence that can lead to a common framework for understanding confidence across different research domains, from human and animal behavior to neural representations.

  15. Self-Reported Student Confidence in Troubleshooting Ability Increases after Completion of an Inquiry-Based PCR Practical

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Anthony L.; Snow, Elizabeth T.; Binns, Henrica; Cook, Peta S.

    2015-01-01

    Inquiry-based learning (IBL) activities are complementary to the processes of laboratory discovery, as both are focused on producing new findings through research and inquiry. Here, we describe the results of student surveys taken pre- and postpractical to an IBL undergraduate practical on PCR. Our analysis focuses primarily student perceptions of…

  16. Determination of red blood cell fatty acid profiles: Rapid and high-confident analysis by chemical ionization-gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schober, Yvonne; Wahl, Hans Günther; Renz, Harald; Nockher, Wolfgang Andreas

    2017-01-01

    Cellular fatty acid (FA) profiles have been acknowledged as biomarkers in various human diseases. Nevertheless, common FA analysis by gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC-MS) requires long analysis time. Hence, there is a need for feasible methods for high throughput analysis in clinical studies. FA was extracted from red blood cells (RBC) and derivatized to fatty acid methyl esters (FAME). A method using gas chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS) with ammonia-induced chemical ionization (CI) was developed for the analysis of FA profiles in human RBC. We compared this method with classical single GC-MS using electron impact ionization (EI). The FA profiles of 703 RBC samples were determined by GC-MS/MS. In contrast to EI ammonia-induced CI resulted in adequate amounts of molecular ions for further fragmentation of FAME. Specific fragments for confident quantification and fragmentation were determined for 45 FA. The GC-MS/MS method has a total run time of 9min compared to typical analysis times of up to 60min in conventional GC-MS. Intra and inter assay variations were <10% for all FA analyzed. Analysis of RBC FA composition revealed an age-dependent increase of the omega-3 eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acid, and a decline of the omega-6 linoleic acid with a corresponding rise of the omega-3 index. The combination of ammonia-induced CI and tandem mass spectrometry after GC separation allows for high-throughput, robust and confident analysis of FA profiles in the clinical laboratory. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  17. Confidence and Construal Framing: When Confidence Increases versus Decreases Information Processing

    OpenAIRE

    Echo Wen Wan; Derek D. Rucker

    2013-01-01

    A large literature demonstrates that people process information more carefully in states of low compared to high confidence. This article presents an alternative hypothesis that either high or low confidence can increase or decrease information processing on the basis of how information is construed. Five experiments demonstrate two sets of findings supporting this alternative formulation. First, low confidence leads people to focus on concrete construals, whereas high confidence leads people...

  18. Linguistic Weighted Aggregation under Confidence Levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chonghui Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop some new linguistic aggregation operators based on confidence levels. Firstly, we introduce the confidence linguistic weighted averaging (CLWA operator and the confidence linguistic ordered weighted averaging (CLOWA operator. These two new linguistic aggregation operators are able to consider the confidence level of the aggregated arguments provided by the information providers. We also study some of their properties. Then, based on the generalized means, we introduce the confidence generalized linguistic ordered weighted averaging (CGLOWA operator. The main advantage of the CGLOWA operator is that it includes a wide range of special cases such as the CLOWA operator, the confidence linguistic ordered weighted quadratic averaging (CLOWQA operator, and the confidence linguistic ordered weighted geometric (CLOWG operator. Finally, we develop an application of the new approach in a multicriteria decision-making under linguistic environment and illustrate it with a numerical example.

  19. The Confidence Trick

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve Keen

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This article reflects on the role that confidence plays in recovery from a financial crisis.The author reflects on lessons from the past – specifically The Great Crash of 1929 and on thework of economists Keynes and Fisher to apply to our current economic woes.The role of overconfidence in our current crisis is also examined.

  20. The Confidence Trick

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    This article reflects on the role that confidence plays in recovery from a financial crisis.The author reflects on lessons from the past – specifically The Great Crash of 1929 and on thework of economists Keynes and Fisher to apply to our current economic woes.The role of overconfidence in our current crisis is also examined.

  1. Confidence in Coastal Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baart, F.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis answers the question "How can we show and improve our confidence in coastal forecasts?", by providing four examples of common coastal forecasts. The first example shows how to improve the estimate of the one in ten thousand year storm-surge level. The three dimensional reconstruction,

  2. Adding Confidence to Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodson, Ludwika Aniela; Slater, Don; Zubovic, Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    A "knowledge survey" and a formative evaluation process led to major changes in an instructor's course and teaching methods over a 5-year period. Design of the survey incorporated several innovations, including: a) using "confidence survey" rather than "knowledge survey" as the title; b) completing an instructional…

  3. Raising Confident Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... new skill and milestone, kids can develop increasing confidence. Parents can help by giving kids lots of opportunities to practice and master their skills, letting kids make mistakes and being there to boost their spirits so they keep trying. Respond with ...

  4. Resolving the Confidence Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apter, Terri

    2006-01-01

    As children approach adolescence, they often experience confusion and uncertainty as they attempt to appear more grown up than they really feel. Research on both girls and boys has documented that the buoyant self-confidence of younger children often gives way to self-consciousness as young adolescents become aware of the complexity and difficulty…

  5. Business Confidence Survey 2000

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guo Yan

    2009-01-01

    @@ In order to gain a better understanding about the depth and breadth of its effect on European companies'businesses,the new strategies they are adopting to cope with the crisis,and how their attitudes to towards China-including long-term plans-have changed in its aftermath,the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China today launches its sixth annual European Chamber Business Confidence Survey,which is published in partnership with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants in Beijing on June 30,2009.Drawing on the responses of more than 300 European companies active in China.the 2009 Survey highlights a European business community that remains bullish in China in most sectors and read to back up that confidence with continued investment in the local economy provided that Chinese government is committed to creating a more free,fair and competitive market.

  6. Assessment of cartilage-dedicated sequences at ultra-high-field MRI: comparison of imaging performance and diagnostic confidence between 3.0 and 7.0 T with respect to osteoarthritis-induced changes at the knee joint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stahl, Robert [University of California, Musculoskeletal and Quantitative Imaging Group, Department of Radiology, San Francisco, CA (United States); University Hospitals - Campus Grosshadern, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Department of Clinical Radiology, Munich (Germany); Krug, Roland; Zuo, Jin; Majumdar, Sharmila; Link, Thomas M. [University of California, Musculoskeletal and Quantitative Imaging Group, Department of Radiology, San Francisco, CA (United States); Kelley, Douglas A.C. [General Electrics Healthcare Technologies, San Francisco, CA (United States); Ma, C.B. [University of California, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, San Francisco, CA (United States)

    2009-08-15

    The objectives of the study were to optimize three cartilage-dedicated sequences for in vivo knee imaging at 7.0 T ultra-high-field (UHF) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to compare imaging performance and diagnostic confidence concerning osteoarthritis (OA)-induced changes at 7.0 and 3.0 T MRI. Optimized MRI sequences for cartilage imaging at 3.0 T were tailored for 7.0 T: an intermediate-weighted fast spin-echo (IM-w FSE), a fast imaging employing steady-state acquisition (FIESTA) and a T1-weighted 3D high-spatial-resolution volumetric fat-suppressed spoiled gradient-echo (SPGR) sequence. Three healthy subjects and seven patients with mild OA were examined. Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), diagnostic confidence in assessing cartilage abnormalities, and image quality were determined. Abnormalities were assessed with the whole organ magnetic resonance imaging score (WORMS). Focal cartilage lesions and bone marrow edema pattern (BMEP) were also quantified. At 7.0 T, SNR was increased (p<0.05) for all sequences. For the IM-w FSE sequence, limitations with the specific absorption rate (SAR) required modifications of the scan parameters yielding an incomplete coverage of the knee joint, extensive artifacts, and a less effective fat saturation. CNR and image quality were increased (p<0.05) for SPGR and FIESTA and decreased for IM-w FSE. Diagnostic confidence for cartilage lesions was highest (p<0.05) for FIESTA at 7.0 T. Evaluation of BMEP was decreased (p < 0.05) at 7.0 T due to limited performance of IM-w FSE. Gradient echo-based pulse sequences like SPGR and FIESTA are well suited for imaging at UHF which may improve early detection of cartilage lesions. However, UHF IM-w FSE sequences are less feasible for clinical use. (orig.)

  7. We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

    2016-12-01

    The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Improving clinician confidence and skills: piloting a web-based learning program for clinicians in supportive care screening of cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beattie, Jill; Brady, Lisa; Tobias, Tracey

    2014-03-01

    Lean thinking and quality improvement processes identified a need to develop and implement a short concise web-based program for clinicians to increase their confidence and skills in supportive care screening of cancer patients. An independent pretest-posttest design evaluated the program which consisted of three modules, a self-directed learning quiz, and multimedia. Questionnaires were completed anonymously via SurveyMonkey®. There was an increase in mean scores from pre- to post-program in perceived knowledge (pre M = 1.97 SD = .847; post M = 3.05 SD = .486; 3 months M = 2.72 SD = .575), educational preparedness (pre M = 2.33 SD = .957; post M = 3.45 SD = .510; 3 months M = 3.05 SD = .486), and confidence (pre M = 2.39 SD = .998; post M = 3.32 SD = .646; 3 months M = 3.28 SD = .826), indicating improvement in readiness to implement supportive care screening. The number of participants using the tool increased from 57.57% pre-program to 77.78% 3 months post-program. Overall, participants agreed that screening elicited more patient information (post M = 3.82 SD = 1.006; 3 months M = 3.83 SD = .786) and would assist in addressing patients' supportive care needs (post M = 4.00 SD.926; 3 months M = 3.94 SD = .998). It was unclear whether they had made more appropriate referrals as a result of their participation in the program (post M = 3.29 SD = 1.102; 3 months M = 3.11 SD = .963). The majority of participants agreed that the web-based program provided the required information to implement supportive care screening (post M = 3.83 SD = 1.032; 3 months M = 3.61 SD = .702), and that the quiz helped their learning (post M = 3.68 SD = 1.041; 3 months M = 3.65 SD = .702). This pilot indicates that provision of a short concise web-based program may improve clinicians' confidence and skills to implement supportive care

  9. Consumer confidence or the business cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low....... Consumer confidence and the output gap are also highly positively correlated. In fact, we find that consumer confidence does not contain independent information (i.e. information over and above that contained by the output gap) about expected returns. Our use of European data allows us to examine both...... aggregate European and local-country data on consumer confidence and output gaps. We find that even local-country consumer confidence does not contain independent information about expected returns. Our findings have asset pricing implication: We show taht the cross-country distribution of expected returns...

  10. Expenditure, Confidence, and Uncertainty: Identifying Shocks to Consumer Confidence Using Daily Data

    OpenAIRE

    Lachowska, Marta

    2013-01-01

    The importance of consumer confidence in stimulating economic activity is a disputed issue in macroeconomics. Do changes in confidence represent autonomous fluctuations in optimism, independent of information on economic fundamentals, or are they a reflection of economic news? I study this question by using high-frequency microdata on spending and consumer confidence, and I find that consumer confidence contains information relevant to predicting spending, independent from other indicators. T...

  11. Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Le Heron

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.

  12. Interrelation of economic confidence with other types of confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Бонецький, Орест Олегович

    2013-01-01

    The paper gives the object and the subject of the study, which are used as a criterion allowing to separate the economic confidence from other types of confidence. The terms describing the psychological and sociological confidence are proposed. It was found that the economic confidence is interrelated with psychological confidence by motivation and advertising, sociological – by the results of activity of public organizations, state regulation of the economy. On the example of information-com...

  13. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-12-15

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

  14. Food skills confidence and household gatekeepers' dietary practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Melissa; Reid, Mike; Worsley, Anthony; Mavondo, Felix

    2017-01-01

    Household food gatekeepers have the potential to influence the food attitudes and behaviours of family members, as they are mainly responsible for food-related tasks in the home. The aim of this study was to determine the role of gatekeepers' confidence in food-related skills and nutrition knowledge on food practices in the home. An online survey was completed by 1059 Australian dietary gatekeepers selected from the Global Market Insite (GMI) research database. Participants responded to questions about food acquisition and preparation behaviours, the home eating environment, perceptions and attitudes towards food, and demographics. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify groups based on confidence regarding food skills and nutrition knowledge. Chi-square tests and one-way ANOVAs were used to compare the groups on the dependent variables. Three groups were identified: low confidence, moderate confidence and high confidence. Gatekeepers in the highest confidence group were significantly more likely to report lower body mass index (BMI), and indicate higher importance of fresh food products, vegetable prominence in meals, product information use, meal planning, perceived behavioural control and overall diet satisfaction. Gatekeepers in the lowest confidence group were significantly more likely to indicate more perceived barriers to healthy eating, report more time constraints and more impulse purchasing practices, and higher convenience ingredient use. Other smaller associations were also found. Household food gatekeepers with high food skills confidence were more likely to engage in several healthy food practices, while those with low food skills confidence were more likely to engage in unhealthy food practices. Food education strategies aimed at building food-skills and nutrition knowledge will enable current and future gatekeepers to make healthier food decisions for themselves and for their families. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence

  16. GPs' knowledge, use, and confidence in national physical activity and health guidelines and tools: a questionnaire-based survey of general practice in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Robin; Chapman, Tim; Brannan, Mike Gt; Varney, Justin

    2017-10-01

    Physical activity (PA) brief advice in health care is effective at getting individuals active. It has been suggested that one in four people would be more active if advised by a GP or nurse, but as many as 72% of GPs do not discuss the benefits of physical activity with patients. To assess the knowledge, use, and confidence in national PA and Chief Medical Officer (CMO) health guidelines and tools among GPs in England. Online questionnaire-based survey of self-selecting GPs in England that took place over a 10-day period in March 2016. The questionnaire consisted of six multiple-choice questions and was available on the Doctors.net.uk (DNUK) homepage. Quotas were used to ensure good regional representation. The final analysis included 1013 responses. Only 20% of responders were broadly or very familiar with the national PA guidelines. In all, 70% of GPs were aware of the General Practice Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPPAQ), but 26% were not familiar with any PA assessment tools, and 55% reported that they had not undertaken any training with respect to encouraging PA. The majority of GPs in England (80%) are unfamiliar with the national PA guidelines. Awareness of the recommended tool for assessment, GPPAQ, is higher than use by GPs. This may be because it is used by other clinical staff, for example, as part of the NHS Health Check programme. Although brief advice in isolation by GPs on PA will only be a part of the behaviour change journey, it is an important prompt, especially if repeated as part of routine practice. This study highlights the need for significant improvement in knowledge, skills, and confidence to maximise the potential for PA advice in GP consultations. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

  17. Nonparametric confidence intervals for monotone functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneboom, P.; Jongbloed, G.

    2015-01-01

    We study nonparametric isotonic confidence intervals for monotone functions. In [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1699–1731], pointwise confidence intervals, based on likelihood ratio tests using the restricted and unrestricted MLE in the current status model, are introduced. We extend the method to the trea

  18. Nonparametric confidence intervals for monotone functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneboom, P.; Jongbloed, G.

    2015-01-01

    We study nonparametric isotonic confidence intervals for monotone functions. In [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1699–1731], pointwise confidence intervals, based on likelihood ratio tests using the restricted and unrestricted MLE in the current status model, are introduced. We extend the method to the

  19. Simulation integration with confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strelich, Tom; Stalcup, Bruce W.

    1999-07-01

    Current financial, schedule and risk constraints mandate reuse of software components when building large-scale simulations. While integration of simulation components into larger systems is a well-understood process, it is extremely difficult to do while ensuring that the results are correct. Illgen Simulation Technologies Incorporated and Litton PRC have joined forces to provide tools to integrate simulations with confidence. Illgen Simulation Technologies has developed an extensible and scaleable, n-tier, client- server, distributed software framework for integrating legacy simulations, models, tools, utilities, and databases. By utilizing the Internet, Java, and the Common Object Request Brokering Architecture as the core implementation technologies, the framework provides built-in scalability and extensibility.

  20. Automated and high confidence protein phosphorylation site localization using complementary collision-activated dissociation and electron transfer dissociation tandem mass spectrometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Thomas A; Sylvester, Marc; Jensen, Ole N

    2012-01-01

    -activated dissociation and electron transfer dissociation, an approach termed the Cscore. The scoring algorithm used in the Cscore was adapted from the widely used Ascore method. The analytical benefit of integrating the product ion information of both ETD and CAD data are evident by increased confidence in phospho...

  1. The computation of Buehler confidence limits

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FANG; Xiangzhong; CHEN; Jiading

    2005-01-01

    In medicine and industry, small sample size often arises owing to the high test cost. Then exact confidence inference is important. Buehler confidence limit is a kind of exact confidence limit for the function of parameters in a model. It can be always defined if the order in sample space is given. But the computing problem is often difficult, especially for the cases with high dimension parameter or with incomplete data. This paper presents an algorithm to compute the Buehler confidence limits by EM algorithm. This is the firsttime usage of EM algorithm on Buehler confidence limits, but the algorithm is often used for maximum likelihood estimate in literatures. Three computation examples are given to illustrate the method.

  2. Comparison of knowledge, confidence in skill performance (CSP) and satisfaction in problem-based learning (PBL) and simulation with PBL educational modalities in caring for children with bronchiolitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Kyung-Ah; Kim, Sunghee; Kim, Shin-Jeong; Oh, Jina; Lee, Myungnam

    2015-02-01

    In most nursing curricula, simulation and problem-based learning (PBL) are used separately as individual learning methods. Nursing educators are in a unique position to improve students' clinical performance and critical thinking skills by utilizing varied educational modalities. This study attempted to compare changes in nursing students' knowledge, confidence in skill performance (CSP), and satisfaction resulting from training using three educational modalities. Data from a convenient sample of 205 senior nursing students from three nursing schools in Seoul and Chuncheon, South Korea, was obtained between September 1 and December 10, 2013. This comparison study used three groups: the PBL group, simulation with the PBL group, and the control group. For data analysis, descriptive statistics, paired t-test, one-way ANOVA, and post-hoc tests (Duncan test) were performed. No significant difference in the students' baseline knowledge of patient care for patients with bronchiolitis was found. There were significant differences in the mean scores of knowledge (F=14.718, pPBL and a combined learning method in this study suggests that it can be an effective approach in pediatric nursing practice. These results provide a much-needed template and starting point for educators introducing active learning approaches for pediatric nursing courses. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A dissociation in judgements of confidence in people with dandruff based on self-reports compared to reports from other observers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godbehere, A; McDonald, L; Baines, F; Sutherland, C A M; Andrews, T J

    2017-08-01

    It is not clear how well evaluations made by other people correspond with self-evaluations of esteem or confidence. To address this question, we compared measurements of confidence in participants with and without dandruff. Participants with dandruff were significantly different from healthy control participants on a quality of life measure of scalp dermatitis, but not on self-evaluations of esteem or confidence. To determine whether there were differences in the evaluation of confidence by others, both groups of participants were videoed while they prepared for or gave a presentation in an interview scenario. Raters, who were unfamiliar with the identities of the participants, evaluated confidence from the muted videos. In contrast to their self-evaluations, male participants with dandruff were rated as having lower confidence compared to participants who reported a healthy scalp. These findings reveal a difference between explicit and implicit measures of self-esteem in men compared to women with dandruff. © 2017 Society of Cosmetic Scientists and the Société Française de Cosmétologie.

  4. Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2009-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

  5. Fostering English Learners' Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondie, Rhonda; Gaughran, Laurie; Zusho, Akane

    2014-01-01

    A teacher is doing something right when his high school students--kids with limited English, no less--form groups and begin discussing a lesson on quadratic equations at the start of class, without any teacher direction. Bondie, Gaughran, and Zusho describe "discussion routines" that teachers at International Community High School in the…

  6. Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denney, Ewen; Paim Ganesh J.; Habli, Ibrahim

    2011-01-01

    Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations

  7. Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2011-01-01

    This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...... of the 'value' of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. Such secondary assessment of confidence represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision and ultimately a tool for improving or targeting actions to improve the health...

  8. US outlook and German confidence : does the confidence channel work?

    OpenAIRE

    Horn, Gustav Adolf

    2003-01-01

    One channel of business cycle shock transmission which gained attraction only recently is the confidence channel. The aim of the paper is to find out whether the confidence channel is actually working between the US and Germany. This is analysed using times series methods. In contrast to other studies the direct informational content of leading US indicators for German producer confidence and the significance of asymmetric reactions is tested. The results show that there is a relationship bet...

  9. Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

  10. Lucky guess or knowledge: a cross-sectional study using the Bland and Altman analysis to compare confidence-based testing of pharmacological knowledge in 3rd and 5th year medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kampmeyer, Daniela; Matthes, Jan; Herzig, Stefan

    2015-05-01

    Multiple-choice-questions are common in medical examinations, but guessing biases assessment results. Confidence-based-testing (CBT) integrates indicated confidence levels. It has been suggested that correctness of and confidence in an answer together indicate knowledge levels thus determining the quality of a resulting decision. We used a CBT approach to investigate whether decision quality improves during undergraduate medical education. 3rd- and 5th-year students attended formative multiple-choice exams on pharmacological issues. Students were asked to indicate their confidence in a given answer. Correctness of answers was scored binary (1-correct; 0-wrong) and confidence levels were transformed to an ordinal scale (guess: 0; rather unsure: 0.33; rather sure: 0.66; very sure: 1). 5th-year students gave more correct answers (73 ± 16 vs. 49 ± 13 %, p confident regarding the correctness of their answers (0.61 ± 0.18 vs. 0.46 ± 0.13, p students (r = 0.81 vs. r = 0.52), but agreement of confidence and correctness ('centration') was lower. By combining the Bland-and-Altman approach with categories of decision-quality we found that 5th-year students were more likely to be 'well-informed' (41 vs. 5 %), while more 3rd-students were 'uninformed' (24 vs. 76 %). Despite a good correlation of exam results and confidence in given answers increased knowledge might be accompanied by a more critical view at the own abilities. Combining the statistical Bland-and-Altman analysis with a theoretical approach to decision-quality, more advanced students are expected to apply correct beliefs, while their younger fellows are rather at risk to hesitate or to act amiss.

  11. Toward a Theory of Assurance Case Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    assurance case claim. The framework is based on the notion of eliminative induction—the princi- ple (first put forward by Francis Bacon ) that confidence in...eliminative induction. As first proposed by Francis Bacon [Schum 2001] and extended by L. Jonathan Cohen [Cohen 1970, 1977, 1989], eliminative induction is...eliminative in- duction—the principle (first put forward by Francis Bacon ) that confidence in the truth of a hypothesis (or claim) increases as reasons for

  12. Characteristics of successful opinion leaders in a bounded confidence model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuwei; Glass, David H.; McCartney, Mark

    2016-05-01

    This paper analyses the impact of competing opinion leaders on attracting followers in a social group based on a bounded confidence model in terms of four characteristics: reputation, stubbornness, appeal and extremeness. In the model, reputation differs among leaders and normal agents based on the weights assigned to them, stubbornness of leaders is reflected by their confidence towards normal agents, appeal of the leaders is represented by the confidence of followers towards them, and extremeness is captured by the opinion values of leaders. Simulations show that increasing reputation, stubbornness or extremeness makes it more difficult for the group to achieve consensus, but increasing the appeal will make it easier. The results demonstrate that successful opinion leaders should generally be less stubborn, have greater appeal and be less extreme in order to attract more followers in a competing environment. Furthermore, the number of followers can be very sensitive to small changes in these characteristics. On the other hand, reputation has a more complicated impact: higher reputation helps the leader to attract more followers when the group bound of confidence is high, but can hinder the leader from attracting followers when the group bound of confidence is low.

  13. Better Confidence Intervals for Importance Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    HALIS SAK; WOLFGANG HÖRMANN; JOSEF LEYDOLD

    2010-01-01

    It is well known that for highly skewed distributions the standard method of using the t statistic for the confidence interval of the mean does not give robust results. This is an important problem for importance sampling (IS) as its final distribution is often skewed due to a heavy tailed weight distribution. In this paper, we first explain Hall's transformation and its variants to correct the confidence interval of the mean and then evaluate the performance of these methods for two numerica...

  14. Space Based Infrared System High (SBIRS High)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Aviation Blvd Bldg 271 Los Angeles Air Force Base (LAAFB) El Segundo, CA 90245-2808 michael.guetlein@us.af.mil Phone: 310-653-3018 Fax: 310-653-4414 DSN...mission areas: Missile Warning , Missile Defense, Technical Intelligence and Battlespace Awareness. The constellation architecture for SBIRS High...Integrated Tactical Warning /Attack Assessment (ITW/AA) mission in November 2008 and technical intelligence mission in August 2009. The SBIRS GEO 1

  15. Assessing Undergraduate Students' Conceptual Understanding and Confidence of Electromagnetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leppavirta, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    The study examines how students' conceptual understanding changes from high confidence with incorrect conceptions to high confidence with correct conceptions when reasoning about electromagnetics. The Conceptual Survey of Electricity and Magnetism test is weighted with students' self-rated confidence on each item in order to infer how strongly…

  16. Confidence Estimation in Structured Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Mejer, Avihai

    2011-01-01

    Structured classification tasks such as sequence labeling and dependency parsing have seen much interest by the Natural Language Processing and the machine learning communities. Several online learning algorithms were adapted for structured tasks such as Perceptron, Passive- Aggressive and the recently introduced Confidence-Weighted learning . These online algorithms are easy to implement, fast to train and yield state-of-the-art performance. However, unlike probabilistic models like Hidden Markov Model and Conditional random fields, these methods generate models that output merely a prediction with no additional information regarding confidence in the correctness of the output. In this work we fill the gap proposing few alternatives to compute the confidence in the output of non-probabilistic algorithms.We show how to compute confidence estimates in the prediction such that the confidence reflects the probability that the word is labeled correctly. We then show how to use our methods to detect mislabeled wor...

  17. The Effectiveness of a Program Based on the Combination of Relevance and Confidence Motivational Strategies in Developing EFL Argumentative Writing Skills and Overcoming Writing Apprehension among Students Teachers at Faculty of Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed Helwa, Hasnaa Sabry Abdel-Hamid

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this research is to investigate the effectiveness of a program based on the combination of relevance and confidence motivational strategies in developing EFL argumentative writing skills and overcoming writing apprehension among students teachers at Faculty of Education. The design of the research is a mixed research methodology. It…

  18. Confidence Intervals from Normalized Data: A correction to Cousineau (2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard D. Morey

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Presenting confidence intervals around means is a common method of expressing uncertainty in data. Loftus and Masson (1994 describe confidence intervals for means in within-subjects designs. These confidence intervals are based on the ANOVA mean squared error. Cousineau (2005 presents an alternative to the Loftus and Masson method, but his method produces confidence intervals that are smaller than those of Loftus and Masson. I show why this is the case and offer a simple correction that makes the expected size of Cousineau confidence intervals the same as that of Loftus and Masson confidence intervals.

  19. APPLICATION OF ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE ESTIMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriy S. Ayzatullen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The socio-economic category of “trust” is studied in the article. The analysis of the existing views about the term “trust” was conducted. A model of the interaction of “Power - Business - People”, using the concept of “trust”, was made. The application and the structure of confidence estimations in economy and politics are studied. The accumulated experience of application of confidence estimations in the macroeconomics of the major countries of the world was showed. The current weaknesses of the confidence indexes are reflected.

  20. An Exploration of Students' Science Learning Interest Related to Their Cognitive Anxiety, Cognitive Load, Self-Confidence and Learning Progress Using Inquiry-Based Learning With an iPad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jon-Chao; Hwang, Ming-Yueh; Tai, Kai-Hsin; Tsai, Chi-Ruei

    2017-01-01

    Based on the cognitive-affective theory, the present study designed a science inquiry learning model, predict-observe-explain (POE), and implemented it in an app called "WhyWhy" to examine the effectiveness of students' science inquiry learning practice. To understand how POE can affect the cognitive-affective learning process, as well as the learning progress, a pretest and a posttest were given to 152 grade 5 elementary school students. The students practiced WhyWhy during six sessions over 6 weeks, and data related to interest in learning science (ILS), cognitive anxiety (CA), and extraneous cognitive load (ECL) were collected and analyzed through confirmatory factor analysis with structure equation modeling. The results showed that students with high ILS have low CA and ECL. In addition, the results also indicated that students with a high level of self-confidence enhancement showed significant improvement in the posttest. The implications of this study suggest that by using technology-enhanced science learning, the POE model is a practical approach to motivate students to learn.

  1. Coverage Accuracy of Confidence Intervals in Nonparametric Regression

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song-xi Chen; Yong-song Qin

    2003-01-01

    Point-wise confidence intervals for a nonparametric regression function with random design points are considered. The confidence intervals are those based on the traditional normal approximation and the empirical likelihood. Their coverage accuracy is assessed by developing the Edgeworth expansions for the coverage probabilities. It is shown that the empirical likelihood confidence intervals are Bartlett correctable.

  2. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  3. Confidence and the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Sylvain Leduc

    2010-01-01

    The idea that business cycle fluctuations may stem partly from changes in consumer and business confidence is controversial. One way to test the idea is to use professional economic forecasts to measure confidence at specific points in time and correlate the results with future economic activity. Such an analysis suggests that changes in expectations regarding future economic performance are important drivers of economic fluctuations. Moreover, periods of heightened optimism are followed by a...

  4. Two-Sided Tests and One-Sided Confidence Bounds

    OpenAIRE

    1994-01-01

    Based on the duality between tests and confidence sets we introduce a new method to derive one-sided confidence bounds following the rejection of a null hypothesis with two-sided alternatives. This method imputes that the experimenter is only interested in confidence bounds if the null hypothesis is rejected. Furthermore, we suppose that he is only interested in the direction and a lower confidence bound concerning the distance of the true parameter value to the parameter values in the null h...

  5. Fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making method based on decision maker's Vague confidence%基于决策者Vague信心度的模糊多准则方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王坚强; 张红宇; 秦育智

    2011-01-01

    Trapezoidal Vague numbers and the decision maker's Vague confidence degree based on the risk attitude of decision maker are defined. A fuzzy multi-criteria decision making method based on decision maker's Vague confidence degree under incomplete information is proposed. In this method, criteria weights are derived through a linear programming model, and the decision maker's confidence degrees for alternatives are obtained through integrating all the decision maker's confidence degrees of criteria values in every alternative.Alternatives are ranked with the possibility degree method. An example shows that the proposed method is reasonable and effective.%定义了梯形Vague数和基于决策者风险态度的Vague信心度,提出了一种基于决策者Vague信心度的信息不完全的模糊多准则决策方法.该方法利用线性规划模型求出准则权重,并对方案在各个准则值下的决策者的Vague信心度进行集成,求出决策者对各个方案的综合信心度,进而利用可能度法对方案进行排序.最后实例验证了所提出方法的合理性与有效性.

  6. Regaining confidence in confidence intervals for the mean treatment effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Gorman, Thomas W

    2014-09-28

    In many experiments, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of a treatment by comparing the responses of two groups of subjects. This evaluation is often performed by using a confidence interval for the difference between the population means. To compute the limits of this confidence interval, researchers usually use the pooled t formulas, which are derived by assuming normally distributed errors. When the normality assumption does not seem reasonable, the researcher may have little confidence in the confidence interval because the actual one-sided coverage probability may not be close to the nominal coverage probability. This problem can be avoided by using the Robbins-Monro iterative search method to calculate the limits. One problem with this iterative procedure is that it is not clear when the procedure produces a sufficiently accurate estimate of a limit. In this paper, we describe a multiple search method that allows the user to specify the accuracy of the limits. We also give guidance concerning the number of iterations that would typically be needed to achieve a specified accuracy. This multiple iterative search method will produce limits for one-sided and two-sided confidence intervals that maintain their coverage probabilities with non-normal distributions.

  7. Clustering consumers based on trust, confidence and giving behaviour: data-driven model building for charitable involvement in the Australian not-for-profit sector.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Jane de Vries

    Full Text Available Organisations in the Not-for-Profit and charity sector face increasing competition to win time, money and efforts from a common donor base. Consequently, these organisations need to be more proactive than ever. The increased level of communications between individuals and organisations today, heightens the need for investigating the drivers of charitable giving and understanding the various consumer groups, or donor segments, within a population. It is contended that `trust' is the cornerstone of the not-for-profit sector's survival, making it an inevitable topic for research in this context. It has become imperative for charities and not-for-profit organisations to adopt for-profit's research, marketing and targeting strategies. This study provides the not-for-profit sector with an easily-interpretable segmentation method based on a novel unsupervised clustering technique (MST-kNN followed by a feature saliency method (the CM1 score. A sample of 1,562 respondents from a survey conducted by the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission is analysed to reveal donor segments. Each cluster's most salient features are identified using the CM1 score. Furthermore, symbolic regression modelling is employed to find cluster-specific models to predict `low' or `high' involvement in clusters. The MST-kNN method found seven clusters. Based on their salient features they were labelled as: the `non-institutionalist charities supporters', the `resource allocation critics', the `information-seeking financial sceptics', the `non-questioning charity supporters', the `non-trusting sceptics', the `charity management believers' and the `institutionalist charity believers'. Each cluster exhibits their own characteristics as well as different drivers of `involvement'. The method in this study provides the not-for-profit sector with a guideline for clustering, segmenting, understanding and potentially targeting their donor base better. If charities and not

  8. Clustering Consumers Based on Trust, Confidence and Giving Behaviour: Data-Driven Model Building for Charitable Involvement in the Australian Not-For-Profit Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Natalie Jane; Reis, Rodrigo; Moscato, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    Organisations in the Not-for-Profit and charity sector face increasing competition to win time, money and efforts from a common donor base. Consequently, these organisations need to be more proactive than ever. The increased level of communications between individuals and organisations today, heightens the need for investigating the drivers of charitable giving and understanding the various consumer groups, or donor segments, within a population. It is contended that `trust' is the cornerstone of the not-for-profit sector's survival, making it an inevitable topic for research in this context. It has become imperative for charities and not-for-profit organisations to adopt for-profit's research, marketing and targeting strategies. This study provides the not-for-profit sector with an easily-interpretable segmentation method based on a novel unsupervised clustering technique (MST-kNN) followed by a feature saliency method (the CM1 score). A sample of 1,562 respondents from a survey conducted by the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission is analysed to reveal donor segments. Each cluster's most salient features are identified using the CM1 score. Furthermore, symbolic regression modelling is employed to find cluster-specific models to predict `low' or `high' involvement in clusters. The MST-kNN method found seven clusters. Based on their salient features they were labelled as: the `non-institutionalist charities supporters', the `resource allocation critics', the `information-seeking financial sceptics', the `non-questioning charity supporters', the `non-trusting sceptics', the `charity management believers' and the `institutionalist charity believers'. Each cluster exhibits their own characteristics as well as different drivers of `involvement'. The method in this study provides the not-for-profit sector with a guideline for clustering, segmenting, understanding and potentially targeting their donor base better. If charities and not

  9. Clustering consumers based on trust, confidence and giving behaviour: data-driven model building for charitable involvement in the Australian not-for-profit sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Natalie Jane; Reis, Rodrigo; Moscato, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    Organisations in the Not-for-Profit and charity sector face increasing competition to win time, money and efforts from a common donor base. Consequently, these organisations need to be more proactive than ever. The increased level of communications between individuals and organisations today, heightens the need for investigating the drivers of charitable giving and understanding the various consumer groups, or donor segments, within a population. It is contended that `trust' is the cornerstone of the not-for-profit sector's survival, making it an inevitable topic for research in this context. It has become imperative for charities and not-for-profit organisations to adopt for-profit's research, marketing and targeting strategies. This study provides the not-for-profit sector with an easily-interpretable segmentation method based on a novel unsupervised clustering technique (MST-kNN) followed by a feature saliency method (the CM1 score). A sample of 1,562 respondents from a survey conducted by the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission is analysed to reveal donor segments. Each cluster's most salient features are identified using the CM1 score. Furthermore, symbolic regression modelling is employed to find cluster-specific models to predict `low' or `high' involvement in clusters. The MST-kNN method found seven clusters. Based on their salient features they were labelled as: the `non-institutionalist charities supporters', the `resource allocation critics', the `information-seeking financial sceptics', the `non-questioning charity supporters', the `non-trusting sceptics', the `charity management believers' and the `institutionalist charity believers'. Each cluster exhibits their own characteristics as well as different drivers of `involvement'. The method in this study provides the not-for-profit sector with a guideline for clustering, segmenting, understanding and potentially targeting their donor base better. If charities and not

  10. “On Air”: Participation in an Online Radio Show to Foster Speaking Confidence. A Cooperative Learning-Based Strategies Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lemos Tello Nubia Consuelo

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available

    The daily observation of class sessions has enabled me to recognize that students possess a feeling of self-distrust in oral activities. For this reason, I designed a study carried out with a group of twelve eighth graders. This article illustrates an action research project conducted to enhance students’ confidence when speaking on an online radio show. The data were collected by using surveys applied to students, audio and video recordings and a teacher’s journal. The data analysis procedures included a blend of inductive analysis, grounded theory and trend analysis. Results indicated that the research process prompted students’ speaking confidence through the use of technology. The study was also an opportunity to improve the teacher’s performance, and become a facilitator by steering a pedagogical intervention that allowed students to make decisions to overcome their lack of speaking confidence.

     

    La observación diaria de las clases de inglés me ha hecho reconocer que los estudiantes manifiestan una sensación de frustración al participar en actividades de producción oral. Por esta razón decidí diseñar un estudio para desarrollar la confianza de los estudiantes en la producción oral, participando en un programa de radio en línea. Dicho estudio de investigación-acción se llevó a cabo con un grupo de doce estudiantes de octavo grado. Los datos fueron recolectados con encuestas aplicadas a los estudiantes, grabaciones en audio y video y diarios de la docente. El análisis de datos se realizó usando una combinación de análisis inductivo, teoría fundamentada y análisis de tendencias. Los resultados indican que el proceso de investigación fue una experiencia positiva que facilitó la confianza al hablar en lengua extranjera usando la tecnología. El estudio fue también una oportunidad para apoyar y mejorar el trabajo del docente, quien asumió el papel de facilitador al diseñar una intervención pedag

  11. Confidence and coverage for Bland-Altman limits of agreement and their approximate confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carkeet, Andrew; Goh, Yee Teng

    2016-09-01

    Bland and Altman described approximate methods in 1986 and 1999 for calculating confidence limits for their 95% limits of agreement, approximations which assume large subject numbers. In this paper, these approximations are compared with exact confidence intervals calculated using two-sided tolerance intervals for a normal distribution. The approximations are compared in terms of the tolerance factors themselves but also in terms of the exact confidence limits and the exact limits of agreement coverage corresponding to the approximate confidence interval methods. Using similar methods the 50th percentile of the tolerance interval are compared with the k values of 1.96 and 2, which Bland and Altman used to define limits of agreements (i.e. [Formula: see text]+/- 1.96Sd and [Formula: see text]+/- 2Sd). For limits of agreement outer confidence intervals, Bland and Altman's approximations are too permissive for sample sizes confidence limits the approximations are poorer, being permissive for sample sizes of confidence intervals for 95% limits of agreements, based on two-sided tolerance factors, can be calculated easily based on tables and should be used in preference to the approximate methods, especially for small sample sizes. © The Author(s) 2016.

  12. GRADE guidelines: 11. Making an overall rating of confidence in effect estimates for a single outcome and for all outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyatt, Gordon; Oxman, Andrew D; Sultan, Shahnaz; Brozek, Jan; Glasziou, Paul; Alonso-Coello, Pablo; Atkins, David; Kunz, Regina; Montori, Victor; Jaeschke, Roman; Rind, David; Dahm, Philipp; Akl, Elie A; Meerpohl, Joerg; Vist, Gunn; Berliner, Elise; Norris, Susan; Falck-Ytter, Yngve; Schünemann, Holger J

    2013-02-01

    GRADE requires guideline developers to make an overall rating of confidence in estimates of effect (quality of evidence-high, moderate, low, or very low) for each important or critical outcome. GRADE suggests, for each outcome, the initial separate consideration of five domains of reasons for rating down the confidence in effect estimates, thereby allowing systematic review authors and guideline developers to arrive at an outcome-specific rating of confidence. Although this rating system represents discrete steps on an ordinal scale, it is helpful to view confidence in estimates as a continuum, and the final rating of confidence may differ from that suggested by separate consideration of each domain. An overall rating of confidence in estimates of effect is only relevant in settings when recommendations are being made. In general, it is based on the critical outcome that provides the lowest confidence.

  13. [GRADE guidelines: 11. Making an overall rating of confidence in effect estimates for a single outcome and for all outcomes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaminski-Hartenthaler, Angela; Gartlehner, Gerald; Kien, Christina; Meerpohl, Joerg J; Langer, Gero; Perleth, Matthias; Schünemann, Holger

    2013-01-01

    GRADE requires guideline developers to make an overall rating of confidence in estimates of effect (quality of evidence-high, moderate, low, or very low) for each important or critical outcome. GRADE suggests, for each outcome, the initial separate consideration of five domains of reasons for rating down the confidence in effect estimates, thereby allowing systematic review authors and guideline developers to arrive at an outcome-specific rating of confidence. Although this rating system represents discrete steps on an ordinal scale, it is helpful to view confidence in estimates as a continuum, and the final rating of confidence may differ from that suggested by separate consideration of each domain. An overall rating of confidence in estimates of effect is only relevant in settings when recommendations are being made. In general, it is based on the critical outcome that provides the lowest confidence.

  14. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.M.W.J. Beetsma; J. Cimadomo; O. Furtuna; M. Giuliodori

    2014-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the fiscal transmission that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on the action-b

  15. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Beetsma; J. Cimadomo; O. Furtuna; M. Giuliodori

    2015-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the transmission of fiscal policy that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on th

  16. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.; Cimadomo, J.; Furtuna, O.; Giuliodori, M.

    2015-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the transmission of fiscal policy that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on

  17. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Cimadomo, J.; Furtuna, O.; Giuliodori, M.

    2014-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the fiscal transmission that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on the

  18. A Unique Marine and Environmental Science Program for High School Teachers in Hawai'i: Professional Development, Teacher Confidence, and Lessons Learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, Malia Ana J.; Manning, Mackenzie M.; Krupp, David A.

    2013-01-01

    Hawai'i is a unique and special place to conduct environmental science inquiry through place based learning and scientific investigation. Here, we describe and evaluate a unique professional development program for science teachers in Hawai'i that integrates the traditional approach of providing training to improve content knowledge, with the…

  19. Effects of High Fidelity Simulation on Knowledge Acquisition, Self-Confidence, and Satisfaction with Baccalaureate Nursing Students Using the Solomon-Four Research Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Rachel Mattson

    2013-01-01

    High Fidelity Simulation is a teaching strategy that is becoming well-entrenched in the world of nursing education and is rapidly expanding due to the challenges and demands of the health care environment. The problem addressed in this study is the conflicting research results regarding the effectiveness of HFS for students' knowledge acquisition…

  20. A Quantitative Assessment of Gender and Career Decision-Making Confidence Levels of High School Seniors in a School-to-Work Program Using the Career Decision Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fawcett, Mary; Maycock, George

    This study measured differences in the levels of career indecision for urban male and female high school seniors who had varying levels of experience in vocational programs or job related activities through school-to-work (STW) vocational programs. The 113 students, of whom 44% were male and 56% were female, completed the Career Decision Scale…

  1. ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Luis, Gache

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.

  2. 农村初中英语学困生自信心的干预研究%Interference Study on the Confidence of Students with Learning Difficulties in English in Rural Junior High School

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐伟; 苏静

    2012-01-01

    We categorized 28 students with learning difficuhies in English from a rural junior high school into experimental and control group randomly, and carried out group guidance for nine times, and measured their confidence before and after the group guid- ance, to explore if the confidence intervention - oriented group guidance have a positive impact on the academic achievements of students with learning difficulties in rural junior school. After the group guidance, the confidence of the experimental group has been improved obviously, and students has made certain progress in English. So, the confidence intervention - oriented group guidance has positive intervention effect on rural junior school students with learning difficulties in English.%我们将某农村中学28名英语学困生随机分为实验组与对照组,并对实验组进行9次团体辅导,在实施团体辅导前后采用自信心量表进行测量,探讨以自信心干预为主的团体辅导是否对农村初中英语学困生的成绩有积极影响。团体辅导后,实验组被试的自信心水平显著提高,且英语学习成绩取得一定的进步。所以,以自信心干预为主的团体辅导对农村初中英语学困生具有积极的干预效果。

  3. Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

  4. The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, Richard D.; Hoekstra, Rink; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Lee, Michael D.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2016-01-01

    Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true

  5. The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, R.D.; Hoekstra, R.; Rouder, J.N.; Lee, M.D.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true

  6. Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stark, Philip B.

    1992-01-01

    The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

  7. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors’ opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors’ opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual’s confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors’ opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation. PMID:28264038

  8. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, YunHong; Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors' opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors' opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual's confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors' opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation.

  9. PhenoMeter: a metabolome database search tool using statistical similarity matching of metabolic phenotypes for high-confidence detection of functional links

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam James Carroll

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This article describes PhenoMeter, a new type of metabolomics database search that accepts metabolite response patterns as queries and searches the MetaPhen database of reference patterns for responses that are statistically significantly similar or inverse for the purposes of detecting functional links. To identify a similarity measure that would detect functional links as reliably as possible, we compared the performance of four statistics in correctly top-matching metabolic phenotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana metabolism mutants affected in different steps of the photorespiration metabolic pathway to reference phenotypes of mutants affected in the same enzymes by independent mutations. The best performing statistic, the PhenoMeter Score (PM Score, was a function of both Pearson correlation and Fisher’s Exact Test of directional overlap. This statistic outperformed Pearson correlation, biweight midcorrelation and Fisher’s Exact Test used alone. To demonstrate general applicability, we show that the PhenoMeter reliably retrieved the most closely functionally-linked response in the database when queried with responses to a wide variety of environmental and genetic perturbations. Attempts to match metabolic phenotypes between independent studies were met with varying success and possible reasons for this are discussed. Overall, our results suggest that integration of pattern-based search tools into metabolomics databases will aid functional annotation of newly recorded metabolic phenotypes analogously to the way sequence similarity search algorithms have aided the functional annotation of genes and proteins. PhenoMeter is freely available at MetabolomeExpress (https://www.metabolome-express.org/phenometer.php.

  10. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

  11. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, R.; Morey, R.D.; Rouder, J.N.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2014-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

  12. CONFIDENCE LOWER LIMITS FOR RESPONSE PROBABILITIES UNDER THE LOGISTIC RESPONSE MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TIAN Yubin; LI Guoying; YANG Jie

    2004-01-01

    The lower confidence limits for response probabilities based on binary response data under the logistic response model are considered by saddlepoint approach. The high order approximation to the conditional distribution of a statistic for an interested parameter and then the lower confidence limits of response probabilities are derived. A simulation comparing these lower confidence limits with those obtained from the asymptotic normality is conducted. The proposed approximation is applied to two real data sets. Numerical results show that the saddlepoint approximations are much more accurate than the asymptotic normality approximations, especially for the cases of small or moderate sample sizes.

  13. Term-Dependent Confidence Normalisation for Out-of-Vocabulary Spoken Term Detection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dong Wang; Javier Tejedor; Simon King; Joe Frankel

    2012-01-01

    An important component of a spoken term detection (STD) system involves estimating confidence measures of hypothesised detections.A potential problem of the widely used lattice-based confidence estimation,however,is that the confidence scores are treated uniformly for all search terms,regardless of how much they may differ in terms of phonetic or linguistic properties.This problem is particularly evident for out-of-vocabulary (OOV) terms which tend to exhibit high intra-term diversity. To address the impact of term diversity on confidence measures,we propose in this work a term-dependent normalisation technique which compensates for term diversity in confidence estimation.We first derive an evaluation-metric-oriented normalisation that optimises the evaluation metric by compensating for the diverse occurrence rates among terms,and then propose a linear bias compensation and a discriminative compensation to deal with the bias problem that is inherent in lattice-based confidence measurement and from which the Term Specific Threshold (TST) approach suffers.We tested the proposed technique on speech data from the multi-party meeting domain with two state-ofthe-art STD systems based on phonemes and words respectively.The experimental results demonstrate that the confidence normalisation approach leads to a significant performance improvement in STD,particularly for OOV terms with phonemebased systems.

  14. Perceived Sources of Team Confidence in Soccer and Basketball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, Katrien; Vanbeselaere, Norbert; De Cuyper, Bert; Vande Broek, Gert; Boen, Filip

    2015-07-01

    Although it is generally accepted that team confidence is beneficial for optimal team functioning and performance, little is known about the predictors of team confidence. The present study was aimed to shed light on the precursors of both high and low team confidence in two different sports. A distinction is made between sources of process-oriented team confidence (i.e., collective efficacy) and sources of outcome-oriented team confidence (i.e., team outcome confidence), which have often been confounded in previous research. In a first step, two qualitative studies were conducted to identify all possible sources of team confidence in basketball and in soccer. In a second step, three quantitative studies were conducted to further investigate the sources of team outcome confidence in soccer (N = 1028) and in basketball (N = 867), and the sources of collective efficacy in basketball (N = 825). Players perceived high-quality performance as the most important factor for their team outcome confidence. With regard to collective efficacy, team enthusiasm was perceived as most predictive determinant. Positive coaching emerged as second most decisive factor for both types of team confidence. In contrast, negative communication and expression by the players or the coach was perceived as the most decisive predictor of low levels of team confidence. At item level, all studies pointed to the importance of team confidence expression by the athlete leaders (i.e., leader figures within the team) and the coach. The present manuscript sheds light on the precursors of high and low levels of team confidence. Athlete leaders and the coach emerged as key triggers of both upward and downward spirals of team confidence, thereby contaminating all team members.

  15. Short-Term Estimates of Growth Using Curriculum-Based Measurement of Oral Reading Fluency: Estimating Standard Error of the Slope to Construct Confidence Intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christ, Theodore J.

    2006-01-01

    Curriculum-based measurement of oral reading fluency (CBM-R) is an established procedure used to index the level and trend of student growth. A substantial literature base exists regarding best practices in the administration and interpretation of CBM-R; however, research has yet to adequately address the potential influence of measurement error.…

  16. Faith Is Confidence: The Implication of Psychosocial Components in Faith-Based Educational Programs on Expressive Communication Skills of Adult Learners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Erin M.

    2016-01-01

    Faith-based programs for adult learners have environmental factors that differentiate them from non-faith based programs, but explicit empirical studies evaluating the impact of the psychosocial factors have been lacking in the literature. This study comparatively examines the achievement level of expressive communication skills as measured…

  17. High-Effect Priority Bounded Confidence Model for Network Opinion Evolution%网络舆论演化的高影响力优先有限信任模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈桂茸; 蔡皖东; 徐会杰; 晏沛湘; 王剑平

    2013-01-01

    针对经典有限信任模型在观点更新时需考虑其他全部个体的观点,以及虚拟社会网络规模巨大、用户时间和精力有限等问题,提出了基于影响力和信任阈值、含有双重选择机制的网络舆论演化模型,并对参与网络舆论演化个体的观点坚持策略进行建模,在多个参数集下对该模型与经典有限信任模型进行仿真.结果表明,所获得结果与实际网络舆论演化的情况相符.%Artificial social networks which include thousands of members have become an important platform for network opinion evolution. People will not try their best to get and consider all other people's opinions when they give their opinions in Internet, because they do not have enough time and energy to do this, and they don't think it is- necessary. But in bounded confidence model, it needs to take into account all the other people's opinions when any people update his opinion, which is in conflict with the real networks. To solve this problem, a novelty network opinion evolution model with dual-choices based on effect and confidence was proposed, according to human behavioral patterns in real networks, and a model of people's opinion insistence strategy was made. The new model and the bounded confidence model with different sets of parameters were simulated for many times, and the results are in good agreement with what happened in real networks.

  18. “道路自信、理论自信、制度自信”的路径选择--大学生思想政治教育中基于显性教育和隐性教育的双重视角%"Road self-confident, theory system of self-confidence, self-confidence"path choice---The ideological and political education of college students based on the dual perspectives of dominant education and recessive education

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高新满

    2014-01-01

    The road confidence, theory confidence, institutional self-confidence put forward on the Eighteenth National Congress of the CPC is the road insurance, the theoretical basis and system security of the rise of the Chinese nation in the new century. It is also the political foundation to achieve political goals of the two hundred years.The explicit education focuses on the main channel of dominant education of ideological and political class, through the courses construction and teaching, especially courses examination and assessment, firm college students roadsconfidence, self-confidence and institutional theory confidence. The implicit education focuses on the students extracurricular activities, with the various ways college students loved and in the form of voluntary participation, such as the youth forum, speech contests, social practice, special investigation, auditorium and other current affairs, consolidate and enhance students road confidence, self-confidence and system theory confidence.%党的十八大提出的“道路自信、理论自信、制度自信”,是中华民族在21世纪崛起的道路保证、理论依据和制度保障,也是实现两个百年目标的政治根基。显性教育的视角着眼于大学生的思想政治课堂这一主渠道,通过课程建设及教育教学尤其是课程的考试考核,坚定大学生的道路自信、理论自信和制度自信。隐性教育的视角着眼于大学生的课外实践活动,借助大学生所喜闻乐见、自愿参与的各种途径形式,如青年论坛、演讲比赛、社会实践、专项调查、时政讲堂等,巩固和增强大学生的道路自信、理论自信和制度自信。

  19. Signatures of a Statistical Computation in the Human Sense of Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Joshua I; Hangya, Balázs; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-05-04

    Human confidence judgments are thought to originate from metacognitive processes that provide a subjective assessment about one's beliefs. Alternatively, confidence is framed in mathematics as an objective statistical quantity: the probability that a chosen hypothesis is correct. Despite similar terminology, it remains unclear whether the subjective feeling of confidence is related to the objective, statistical computation of confidence. To address this, we collected confidence reports from humans performing perceptual and knowledge-based psychometric decision tasks. We observed two counterintuitive patterns relating confidence to choice and evidence: apparent overconfidence in choices based on uninformative evidence, and decreasing confidence with increasing evidence strength for erroneous choices. We show that these patterns lawfully arise from statistical confidence, and therefore occur even for perfectly calibrated confidence measures. Furthermore, statistical confidence quantitatively accounted for human confidence in our tasks without necessitating heuristic operations. Accordingly, we suggest that the human feeling of confidence originates from a mental computation of statistical confidence.

  20. High-Confidence Predictions under Adversarial Uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Drucker, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    We study the setting in which the bits of an unknown infinite binary sequence x are revealed sequentially to an observer. We show that very limited assumptions about x allow one to make successful predictions about unseen bits of x. First, we study the problem of successfully predicting a single 0 from among the bits of x. In our model we have only one chance to make a prediction, but may do so at a time of our choosing. We describe and motivate this as the problem of a frog who wants to cross a road safely. Letting N_t denote the number of 1s among the first t bits of x, we say that x is "eps-weakly sparse" if lim inf (N_t/t) 0, we give a randomized forecasting algorithm S_eps that, given sequential access to a binary sequence x, makes a predi ction of the form: "A p fraction of the next N bits will be 1s." (The algorithm gets to choose p, N, and the time of the prediction.) For any fixed sequence x, the forecast fraction p is accurate to within +-eps with probability 1 - eps.

  1. Self-Confidence & Social Interactions

    OpenAIRE

    Bénabou, Roland; Tirole, Jean

    2000-01-01

    This paper studies the interactions between an individual's self-esteem and his social environment - in the workplace, at school, and in personal relationships. Because a person generally has only imperfect knowledge of his own abilities, people who derive benefits from his performance (parent, spouse, friend, teacher, manager, etc.) have incentives to manipulate his self--confidence. We first study situations where an informed principal chooses an incentive structure, such as offering paymen...

  2. The Confidence Information Ontology: a step towards a standard for asserting confidence in annotations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastian, Frederic B; Chibucos, Marcus C; Gaudet, Pascale; Giglio, Michelle; Holliday, Gemma L; Huang, Hong; Lewis, Suzanna E; Niknejad, Anne; Orchard, Sandra; Poux, Sylvain; Skunca, Nives; Robinson-Rechavi, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Biocuration has become a cornerstone for analyses in biology, and to meet needs, the amount of annotations has considerably grown in recent years. However, the reliability of these annotations varies; it has thus become necessary to be able to assess the confidence in annotations. Although several resources already provide confidence information about the annotations that they produce, a standard way of providing such information has yet to be defined. This lack of standardization undermines the propagation of knowledge across resources, as well as the credibility of results from high-throughput analyses. Seeded at a workshop during the Biocuration 2012 conference, a working group has been created to address this problem. We present here the elements that were identified as essential for assessing confidence in annotations, as well as a draft ontology--the Confidence Information Ontology--to illustrate how the problems identified could be addressed. We hope that this effort will provide a home for discussing this major issue among the biocuration community. Tracker URL: https://github.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology Ontology URL: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology/master/src/ontology/cio-simple.obo

  3. Confidence assessment. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-09-15

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Forsmark). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. The confidence in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface-based site investigations, have been assessed by exploring: Confidence in the site characterisation data base; Key remaining issues and their handling; Handling of alternative models; Consistency between disciplines; and, Main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. It is generally found that the key aspects of importance for safety assessment and repository engineering of the Forsmark site descriptive model are associated with a high degree of confidence. Because of the robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in Forsmark site descriptive model is judged to be high. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models. Most, but not all, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. Poor precision in the measured data are judged to have limited impact on uncertainties on the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of inaccuracy in determining the position of some boreholes at depth in 3-D space, as well as the poor precision of the orientation of BIPS images in some boreholes, and the poor precision of stress data determined by overcoring at the locations where the pre

  4. Social media sentiment and consumer confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Piet J.H. Daas; Puts, Marco J.H.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in the sentiment of Dutch public social media messages were compared with changes in monthly consumer confidence over a period of three-and-a-half years, revealing that both were highly correlated (up to r = 0.9) and that both series cointegrated. This phenomenon is predominantly affected by changes in the sentiment of all Dutch public Facebook messages. The inclusion of various selections of public Twitter messages improved this association and the response to changes in sentiment. G...

  5. Effect of CALIPSO Cloud Aerosol Discrimination (CAD) Confidence Levels on Observations of Aerosol Properties near Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Weidong; Marshak, Alexander; Varnai, Tamas; Liu, Zhaoyan

    2012-01-01

    CALIPSO aerosol backscatter enhancement in the transition zone between clouds and clear sky areas is revisited with particular attention to effects of data selection based on the confidence level of cloud-aerosol discrimination (CAD). The results show that backscatter behavior in the transition zone strongly depends on the CAD confidence level. Higher confidence level data has a flatter backscatter far away from clouds and a much sharper increase near clouds (within 4 km), thus a smaller transition zone. For high confidence level data it is shown that the overall backscatter enhancement is more pronounced for small clear-air segments and horizontally larger clouds. The results suggest that data selection based on CAD reduces the possible effects of cloud contamination when studying aerosol properties in the vicinity of clouds.

  6. An Empirical Study on Real Estate Confidence Index based on the FA and VAR Model%基于FA和VAR模型的房地产信心指数实证研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宋永发; 邢燕婷

    2013-01-01

    近几年,政府的宏观调控政策层出不穷,房地产市场受到影响的同时,各参与主体的心理也产生了极大的冲击。文章首先选择线性模型构建购房者信心指数,利用因子分析法确定各项指标的权重系数,计算合成购房者信心指数。然后在向量自回归模型基础之上,分析其和房地产开发综合景气指数之间的互动关系来评价购房者信心指数的性能。通过脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解分析,研究二者的脉冲响应特性。 Granger因果关系检验结果表明,购房者信心指数和房地产开发综合景气指数之间存在单向的因果关系。脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析表明,购房者信心指数对房地产开发综合景气指数的影响远远大于后者对购房者信心指数的影响。因此,购房者信心指数能够反映消费者对房地产市场的心理变化,对未来房地产市场的发展有指导和预测作用。%In recent years, the government's macro-control policies are emerging in an endless stream. While the real estate market is affected, the mentality of each participant also has a tremendous impact. At first, the paper selected a linear model to build homebuyer confidence index, used factor analysis to determine the indicators weight coefficient, and then calculated to syn-thesize homebuyer confidence index. The interaction between homebuyer confidence index and real estate development climate in-dex was analyzed to evaluate the performance of homebuyer confidence index based on vector autoregressive model. Impulse re-sponse function and variance decomposition analysis were used to describe impulse response characteristic. The results of Granger causality test indicated that there was a one-way causal relationship from homebuyer confidence index to real estate development climate index. The impulse response and variance decomposition analysis showed that the impact of homebuyer confidence

  7. ETX 1.3a: A program to calculate confidence limits for hazardous concentrations based on small samples of toxicity data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aldenberg T

    1993-01-01

    ETX (EcoToX) is a computer program for MS-DOS computers for the extrapolation of laboratory toxicity data to environmental concentrations that are safe for the majority of the biological species. It is based on the theory of Van Straalen and Denneman (1989), as modified by Aldenberg and Slob (1993).

  8. ETX 1.3a: A program to calculate confidence limits for hazardous concentrations based on small samples of toxicity data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aldenberg T

    1993-01-01

    ETX (EcoToX) is a computer program for MS-DOS computers for the extrapolation of laboratory toxicity data to environmental concentrations that are safe for the majority of the biological species. It is based on the theory of Van Straalen and Denneman (1989), as modified by Aldenberg and Slob (1993)

  9. Farmers' confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enticott, G; Maye, D; Ilbery, B; Fisher, R; Kirwan, J

    2012-02-25

    This paper examines UK farmers' levels of confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and their trust in the Government's ability to deal with bTB. In 2010, a badger vaccine based on the BCG vaccine was licensed following field trials and used as part of the UK Government's Badger Vaccination Deployment Project. A stratified random sample of cattle farmers in five different locations of England was surveyed using a telephone survey to elicit their views of badger vaccination. The survey provided a total of 341 responses with a response rate of 80 per cent. Results suggest that the farmers are cautious about badger vaccination, appearing to be neither overly confident nor unconfident in it. However, the farmers did not reveal high levels of trust in the Government to manage bTB policy or badger vaccination. There were no differences in the levels of confidence or trust between farms that were under bTB restrictions at the time of the survey and those that were not or between farms with historically high levels of bTB. Analysis of principal components suggests that 33 per cent of the farmers accepted badger vaccination, but that acceptance is dependent on the wider social and political environment.

  10. Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

    2017-03-01

    The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

  11. Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

    2016-10-01

    The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

  12. Confidence leak in perceptual decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D’Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan

    2015-01-01

    We live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that, to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a “continuity field” such that objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of our metacognitive representations. In three experiments we demonstrate a robust inter-task “confidence leak” that cannot be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Observers’ ability to modulate this confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in prefrontal cortex. PMID:26408037

  13. ;Agreement; in the IPCC Confidence measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehg, William; Staley, Kent

    2017-02-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in its most recent Assessment Report (AR5), articulated guidelines for evaluating and communicating uncertainty that include a qualitative scale of confidence. We examine one factor included in that scale: the ;degree of agreement.; Some discussions of the degree of agreement in AR5 suggest that the IPCC is employing a consensus-oriented social epistemology. We consider the application of the degree of agreement factor in practice in AR5. Our findings, though based on a limited examination, suggest that agreement attributions do not so much track the overall consensus among investigators as the degree to which relevant research findings substantively converge in offering support for IPCC claims. We articulate a principle guiding confidence attributions in AR5 that centers not on consensus but on the notion of support. In concluding, we tentatively suggest a pluralist approach to the notion of support.

  14. Signatures of a statistical computation in the human sense of confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Joshua I.; Hangya, Balázs; Kepecs, Adam

    2017-01-01

    Summary Human confidence judgments are thought to originate from metacognitive processes that provide a subjective assessment about one’s beliefs. Alternatively, confidence is framed in mathematics as an objective statistical quantity: the estimated probability that a chosen hypothesis is correct. Despite similar terminology, it remains unclear whether the subjective feeling of confidence is related to the objective, statistical computation of confidence. To address this, we collected confidence reports from humans performing perceptual and knowledge-based psychometric decision tasks. We observed two counterintuitive patterns relating confidence to choice and evidence: apparent overconfidence in choices based on uninformative evidence, and for erroneous choices, that confidence decreased with increasing evidence strength. We show that these patterns lawfully arise when statistical confidence qualifies a decision. Furthermore, statistical confidence quantitatively accounted for human confidence in our tasks without necessitating heuristic operations. Accordingly, we suggest that the human feeling of confidence originates from a mental computation of statistical confidence. PMID:27151640

  15. "Yes, we can!" review on team confidence in sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, Katrien; Mertens, Niels; Feltz, Deborah; Boen, Filip

    2017-08-01

    During the last decade, team confidence has received more and more attention in the sport psychology literature. Research has demonstrated that athletes who are more confident in their team's abilities exert more effort, set more challenging goals, are more resilient when facing adversities, and ultimately perform better. This article reviews the existing literature in order to provide more clarity in terms of the conceptualization and the operationalization of team confidence. We thereby distinguish between collective efficacy (i.e., process-oriented team confidence) and team outcome confidence (i.e., outcome-oriented team confidence). In addition, both the sources as well as the outcomes of team confidence will be discussed. Furthermore, we will go deeper into the dispersion of team confidence and we will evaluate the current guidelines on how to measure both types of team confidence. Building upon this base, the article then highlights interesting avenues for future research in order to further improve both our theoretical knowledge on team confidence and its application to the field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Eyewitness confidence : the relation between accuracy and confidence in episodic memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Odinot, Geralda

    2008-01-01

    Many decisions in the legal system are based on eyewitness evidence. It seems to be a matter of common sense that the level of confidence expressed by a witness can be used as a diagnostic tool to discriminate between accurate and inaccurate memories. Contrary to this general belief, the bulk of

  17. Eyewitness confidence : the relation between accuracy and confidence in episodic memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Odinot, Geralda

    2008-01-01

    Many decisions in the legal system are based on eyewitness evidence. It seems to be a matter of common sense that the level of confidence expressed by a witness can be used as a diagnostic tool to discriminate between accurate and inaccurate memories. Contrary to this general belief, the bulk of emp

  18. Relating confidence to measured information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Zerkle, David K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Key, Brian P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shevitz, Daniel W [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-10-07

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to relate confidence to the available information uncertainty in the result using fuzzy sets. Information uncertainty can be quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values.

  19. Measurement of confidence: the development and psychometric evaluation of a stroke-specific, measure of confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, Jane C; Lincoln, Nadina B; Logan, Pip A

    2017-04-01

    To design, develop and psychometrically evaluate a stroke-specific measure of confidence, the Confidence after Stroke Measure (CaSM). Cross-sectional. Adults in the community. Stroke survivors and healthy elderly participants. Questionnaire items were generated based on the literature and qualitative interviews and piloted with expert groups to establish face validity. A 53-item CaSM was administered to stroke survivors and healthy elderly participants in the community. A second copy was posted four weeks later. Completed questionnaires were analysed for extreme responses, missing values, construct validity (factor analysis), convergent validity, divergent validity, reliability (internal consistency and temporal stability) and comparing responses according to age and gender. Stroke ( n = 101) and healthy elderly participants ( n = 101) returned questionnaires. Eight items were removed that had extreme responses and large numbers of missing values. Six items had item total correlations Confidence, Positive Attitude and Social Confidence, which explained 52% of variance. Cronbach's alpha coefficient demonstrated good internal consistency ( α = 0.94). A test re-test on the 27 items indicated good temporal stability ( r = 0.85, P = 0.001). The 27-item CaSM was a valid and reliable measure for assessing confidence in stroke survivors.

  20. Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Čižmešija

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.

  1. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-01-01

    . It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall...... test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence...... intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated...

  2. Computer Use, Confidence, Attitudes, and Knowledge: A Causal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Tamar; Donitsa-Schmidt, Smadar

    1998-01-01

    Introduces a causal model which links measures of computer experience, computer-related attitudes, computer-related confidence, and perceived computer-based knowledge. The causal model suggests that computer use has a positive effect on perceived computer self-confidence, as well as on computer-related attitudes. Questionnaires were administered…

  3. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  4. The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

  5. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  6. The Self-Consistency Model of Subjective Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koriat, Asher

    2012-01-01

    How do people monitor the correctness of their answers? A self-consistency model is proposed for the process underlying confidence judgments and their accuracy. In answering a 2-alternative question, participants are assumed to retrieve a sample of representations of the question and base their confidence on the consistency with which the chosen…

  7. Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Verrill

    2003-01-01

    This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

  8. Confidence sets for network structure

    CERN Document Server

    Airoldi, Edoardo M; Wolfe, Patrick J

    2011-01-01

    Latent variable models are frequently used to identify structure in dichotomous network data, in part because they give rise to a Bernoulli product likelihood that is both well understood and consistent with the notion of exchangeable random graphs. In this article we propose conservative confidence sets that hold with respect to these underlying Bernoulli parameters as a function of any given partition of network nodes, enabling us to assess estimates of 'residual' network structure, that is, structure that cannot be explained by known covariates and thus cannot be easily verified by manual inspection. We demonstrate the proposed methodology by analyzing student friendship networks from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health that include race, gender, and school year as covariates. We employ a stochastic expectation-maximization algorithm to fit a logistic regression model that includes these explanatory variables as well as a latent stochastic blockmodel component and additional node-specific...

  9. RIASEC Interest and Confidence Cutoff Scores: Implications for Career Counseling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonitz, Verena S.; Armstrong, Patrick Ian; Larson, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    One strategy commonly used to simplify the joint interpretation of interest and confidence inventories is the use of cutoff scores to classify individuals dichotomously as having high or low levels of confidence and interest, respectively. The present study examined the adequacy of cutoff scores currently recommended for the joint interpretation…

  10. nigerian students' self-confidence in responding to statements of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Temechegn

    The goal of the study was to find out the self-confidence and confidence level of senior ... Specifically, chemistry teachers ask students this question when an ... high school students from connecting with scientific principles in the way ... chemical reaction, ability to identify factors that affect equilibrium reactions and ability to.

  11. What Are Confidence Judgments Made of? Students' Explanations for Their Confidence Ratings and What that Means for Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Parkinson, Meghan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although calibration has been widely studied, questions remain about how best to capture confidence ratings, how to calculate continuous variable calibration indices, and on what exactly students base their reported confidence ratings. Undergraduates in a research methods class completed a prior knowledge assessment, two sets of readings and…

  12. What Are Confidence Judgments Made of? Students' Explanations for Their Confidence Ratings and What that Means for Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Parkinson, Meghan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although calibration has been widely studied, questions remain about how best to capture confidence ratings, how to calculate continuous variable calibration indices, and on what exactly students base their reported confidence ratings. Undergraduates in a research methods class completed a prior knowledge assessment, two sets of readings and…

  13. Confidence Intervals for the Coefficient of Variation in a Normal Distribution with a Known Population Mean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wararit Panichkitkosolkul

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents three confidence intervals for the coefficient of variation in a normal distribution with a known population mean. One of the proposed confidence intervals is based on the normal approximation. The other proposed confidence intervals are the shortest-length confidence interval and the equal-tailed confidence interval. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the proposed confidence intervals with the existing confidence intervals. Simulation results have shown that all three proposed confidence intervals perform well in terms of coverage probability and expected length.

  14. Can nursing students' confidence levels increase with repeated simulation activities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Cynthia L; Connelly, Linda K

    2016-01-01

    In 2014, nursing faculty conducted a study with undergraduate nursing students on their satisfaction, confidence, and educational practice levels, as it related to simulation activities throughout the curriculum. The study was a voluntary survey conducted on junior and senior year nursing students. It consisted of 30 items based on the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning and the Educational Practices Questionnaire (Jeffries, 2012). Mean averages were obtained for each of the 30 items from both groups and were compared using T scores for unpaired means. The results showed that 8 of the items had a 95% confidence level and when combined the items were significant for p confidence and active learning. Based on these findings, it can be assumed that repeated simulation experiences can lead to an increase in student confidence and active learning.

  15. Properties of frequentist confidence levels derivatives

    CERN Document Server

    Martínez, Miriam Lucio; Dettori, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    In high energy physics, results from searches for new particles or rare processes are often reported using a modified frequentist approach, known as $\\rm{CL_s}$ method. In this paper, we study the properties of the derivatives of $\\rm{CL_s}$ and $\\rm{CL_{s+b}}$ as signal strength estimators if the confidence levels are interpreted as credible intervals. Our approach allows obtaining best fit points and $\\chi^2$ functions which can be used for phenomenology studies. In addition, this approach can be used to incorporate $\\rm{CL_s}$ results into Bayesian combinations.

  16. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-10-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.

  17. Constructivist-Based Asynchronous Tutorial to Improve Transfer between Math and Chemistry Domains: Design, Implementation, and Analysis of the Impact of ReMATCH on General Chemistry Course Performance and Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barker, M. Danielle

    2011-07-01

    The two-year implementation of ReMATCH, a web-based math and problem-solving tutorial, in a traditionally arranged general chemistry classroom at the University of Kansas examined the impact of a designed intervention to assist students with the transfer of their mathematical knowledge to a chemistry context where it could be readily used for quantitative problem solving. The ReMATCH intervention, designed on constructivist-based pedagogies, focused on illuminating the expert-processes of problem solving and transferring knowledge across domains to the novice chemistry. The two implementations of ReMATCH -- once as lab assignments and once lecture assignments -- resulted in very different student responses to the intervention. However, within both, the beneficial effects of sustained ReMATCH-use were visible. In 2006, students who attempted all of the ReMATCH homework assignments were predicted to earn ˜5% higher on their total exam points. The 2007 implementation of ReMATCH demonstrated that students who attempted all of the homework problems and visited at least half of the ReMATCH tutorial pages were predicted to earn ˜8.5% higher on their total exam points. Additionally, use of ReMATCH in 2006 also resulted in increased confidence (as measured by comfort-level) with some of the math-related chemistry topics covered in ReMATCH. In 2007, when only students who attempted all of the ReMATCH problems were considered, it became clear that individuals who were initially less confident in their math-related chemistry skills were more likely to view more of the ReMATCH tutorial pages. When students with lower initial comfort-levels on these topics viewed at least half of the ReMATCH tutorial pages, they were able to compensate for their initially lower levels of confidence and were equally comfortable with most of the math-related chemistry topics by the final survey. Student interactions with and perceptions of ReMATCH showed that student attitudes towards Re

  18. Stepwise Method Based on Confidence Bound and Information Incorporation for Identifying the Maximum Tolerable Dose%基于置信界及信息附加寻找最大耐受剂量的逐步方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王雪丽; 陶剑; 史宁中

    2005-01-01

    The primary goal of a phase I clinical trial is to find the maximum tolerable dose of a treatment. In this paper, we propose a new stepwise method based on confidence bound and information incorporation to determine the maximum tolerable dose among given dose levels. On the one hand, in order to avoid severe even fatal toxicity to occur and reduce the experimental subjects, the new method is executed from the lowest dose level, and then goes on in a stepwise fashion. On the other hand,in order to improve the accuracy of the recommendation, the final recommendation of the maximum tolerable dose is accomplished through the information incorporation of an additional experimental cohort at the same dose level. Furthermore, empirical simulation results show that the new method has some real advantages in comparison with the modified continual reassessment method.

  19. Status and Confidence, in the Lab

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey V. Butler

    2009-01-01

    It is widely recognized that confidence can have important economic consequences. While most of the focus has been on overconfidence, systematic variation in confidence can imply systematic variation in economic outcomes. Intriguingly, sociological and social psychological research suggests that being on the wrong side of inequality undermines confidence. This paper examines the link between inequality and confidence in a controlled, incentive-compatible laboratory setting. Inequality was int...

  20. A Confidence Paradigm for Classification Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    M.U. Thomas Date Dean, Graduate School of Engineering and Management Table of Contents Page List of Figures...Plato, Aristotle, Plotinus, St Augustine, St Aquinas , Machi- avelli, Descartes, Hobbes, Locke, Rousseau, Kant, Marx, Mill, Confucius) discuss having...independence, and aggregation of confidence is a linear summation of individual confidence values. Thomas and Allcock [61] develop a statistical confidence

  1. Engine Test Confidence Evaluation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-09-13

    Tech nolog y Ele ment s Demonstrator: Silicon Nitride Blade Example Date of Rating: Now Feb 07 High Turbine Compressor Combustor Low Turbine Fan...TFI*STE 6 5.8*6*6*6*9*9 6 6.8 Demonstrator: Silicon Nitride Blade Example Date of Rating: Now Feb 07 High Turbine Compressor Combustor Low Turbine Fan

  2. Sustaining Vaccine Confidence in the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Hardt

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Vaccination provides many health and economic benefits to individuals and society, and public support for immunization programs is generally high. However, the benefits of vaccines are often not fully valued when public discussions on vaccine safety, quality or efficacy arise, and the spread of misinformation via the internet and other media has the potential to undermine immunization programs. Factors associated with improved public confidence in vaccines include evidence-based decision-making procedures and recommendations, controlled processes for licensing and monitoring vaccine safety and effectiveness and disease surveillance. Community engagement with appropriate communication approaches for each audience is a key factor in building trust in vaccines. Vaccine safety/quality issues should be handled rapidly and transparently by informing and involving those most affected and those concerned with public health in effective ways. Openness and transparency in the exchange of information between industry and other stakeholders is also important. To maximize the safety of vaccines, and thus sustain trust in vaccines, partnerships are needed between public health sector stakeholders. Vaccine confidence can be improved through collaborations that ensure high vaccine uptake rates and that inform the public and other stakeholders of the benefits of vaccines and how vaccine safety is constantly assessed, assured and communicated.

  3. Confidence in the use of information management and technology (IM and T) in radiography: Is age a barrier?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rogers, Hywel, E-mail: rogershj1@cf.ac.u [Department of Radiography, School of Healthcare Studies, Cardiff University, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XN (United Kingdom); Pratt, Shaaron; Brown, Paul; Gambling, Tina [Department of Radiography, School of Healthcare Studies, Cardiff University, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XN (United Kingdom)

    2010-08-15

    Introduction: Age has been reported as a barrier to the use of Information Management and Technology (IM and T). Radiographers' confidence and ability in IM and T may be related to age and it is the aim of this research to investigate this relationship. Method: An online survey method gathered views from the radiographic population, between 31st August 2008 and 10th October 2008. The questionnaire encompassed IM and T ability, work based IM and T usage, personal IM and T usage, security and governance issues, education and training experience, the future and demographic details. For the purpose of this paper the first three sections and demographic section were considered. Results: Radiographers showed a good level of ability and confidence in the use of IM and T. Some general applications such as word processing showed a decreased confidence with age. Confidence in all radiography specific applications was scored highly although confidence in the use of Hospital Information Systems (HIS) and radiotherapy Treatment Planning Systems (TPS) showed the least confidence. Statistical analysis did not reveal a strong link between age and confidence in all applications. Discussion: While a link between age and confidence was not found in this study, frequency of use and training in IM and T require further investigation in relation to specific roles.

  4. Embracing the World With Confidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    President Hu Jintao’s Asian tour thrusts post-Olympic China into global spotlight As Chinese President Hu Jintao embarked on his first overseas trip after the Beijing Olympics, hopes were high that this tour would set the tone for post-Olympic Chinese diplomacy.

  5. Supervised and Unsupervised Speaker Adaptation Using Confidence Measure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIUJia; LIHusheng; LIUJing; LIURunsheng

    2003-01-01

    The speaker adaptation is an effective means of improving the performance of a speech recognition system,and it can be divided into supervised or unsupervised speaker adaptation.In this paper a kind of confidence measure based on the word lattice structure is proposed and is used for the supervised and unsupervised speaker adaptation.The reliability of the recognition results can be evaluated by the confidence measure,and the uncertain parts in the recognition results can be removed or be given smaller weights in the speaker adaptation process.The experiments show that the confidence can effectively eliminate the suspicious speech and improve the performance of the supervised and unsupervised adaptation considerably.The performance difference between the supervised and unsupervised adaptation is reduced by using the confidence measure based on the word lattice structure.

  6. Market entry decisions: effects of absolute and relative confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolger, Fergus; Pulford, Briony D; Colman, Andrew M

    2008-01-01

    In a market entry game, the number of entrants usually approaches game-theoretic equilibrium quickly, but in real-world markets business start-ups typically exceed market capacity, resulting in chronically high failure rates and suboptimal industry profits. Excessive entry has been attributed to overconfidence arising when expected payoffs depend partly on skill. In an experimental test of this hypothesis, 96 participants played 24 rounds of a market entry game, with expected payoffs dependent partly on skill on half the rounds, after their confidence was manipulated and measured. The results provide direct support for the hypothesis that high levels of confidence are largely responsible for excessive entry, and they suggest that absolute confidence, independent of interpersonal comparison, rather than confidence about one's abilities relative to others, drives excessive entry decisions when skill is involved.

  7. Confidence and rejection in automatic speech recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colton, Larry Don

    Automatic speech recognition (ASR) is performed imperfectly by computers. For some designated part (e.g., word or phrase) of the ASR output, rejection is deciding (yes or no) whether it is correct, and confidence is the probability (0.0 to 1.0) of it being correct. This thesis presents new methods of rejecting errors and estimating confidence for telephone speech. These are also called word or utterance verification and can be used in wordspotting or voice-response systems. Open-set or out-of-vocabulary situations are a primary focus. Language models are not considered. In vocabulary-dependent rejection all words in the target vocabulary are known in advance and a strategy can be developed for confirming each word. A word-specific artificial neural network (ANN) is shown to discriminate well, and scores from such ANNs are shown on a closed-set recognition task to reorder the N-best hypothesis list (N=3) for improved recognition performance. Segment-based duration and perceptual linear prediction (PLP) features are shown to perform well for such ANNs. The majority of the thesis concerns vocabulary- and task-independent confidence and rejection based on phonetic word models. These can be computed for words even when no training examples of those words have been seen. New techniques are developed using phoneme ranks instead of probabilities in each frame. These are shown to perform as well as the best other methods examined despite the data reduction involved. Certain new weighted averaging schemes are studied but found to give no performance benefit. Hierarchical averaging is shown to improve performance significantly: frame scores combine to make segment (phoneme state) scores, which combine to make phoneme scores, which combine to make word scores. Use of intermediate syllable scores is shown to not affect performance. Normalizing frame scores by an average of the top probabilities in each frame is shown to improve performance significantly. Perplexity of the wrong

  8. Setting confidence intervals in coincidence search analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Baggio, L; Baggio, Lucio; Prodi, Giovanni A.

    2003-01-01

    The main technique that has been used to estimate the rate of gravitational wave (gw) bursts is to search for coincidence among times of arrival of candidate events in different detectors. Coincidences are modeled as a (possibly non-stationary) random time series background with gw events embedded in it, at random times but constant average rate. It is critical to test whether the statistics of the coincidence counts is Poisson, because the counts in a single detector often are not. At some point a number of parameters are tuned to increase the chance of detection by reducing the expected background: source direction, epoch vetoes based on sensitivity, goodness-of-fit thresholds, etc. Therefore, the significance of the confidence intervals itself has to be renormalized. This review is an insight of the state-of-the-art methods employed in the recent search performed by the International Gravitational Event Collaboration for the worldwide network of resonant bar detectors.

  9. The Stock Market and the Consumer Confidence Channel in Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Lilia Karnizova; Hashmat Khan

    2010-01-01

    When stock prices rise, so does aggregate consumer spending. A traditional explanation for this phenomenon is based on wealth effects. However, movements of the stock market may affect consumer spending indirectly, by influencing consumer confidence. A bullish stock market may make consumers feel more optimistic about the future of the aggregate economy, and hence increase their spending. This paper investigates the existence of the consumer confidence channel of asset price transmission in C...

  10. Parents' obesity-related behavior and confidence to support behavioral change in their obese child: data from the STAR study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, Lisa N; Xu, Kathleen; Taveras, Elsie M; Hacker, Karen A

    2014-01-01

    Successful childhood obesity interventions frequently focus on behavioral modification and involve parents or family members. Parental confidence in supporting behavior change may be an element of successful family-based prevention efforts. We aimed to determine whether parents' own obesity-related behaviors were related to their confidence in supporting their child's achievement of obesity-related behavioral goals. Cross-sectional analyses of data collected at baseline of a randomized control trial testing a treatment intervention for obese children (n = 787) in primary care settings (n = 14). Five obesity-related behaviors (physical activity, screen time, sugar-sweetened beverage, sleep duration, fast food) were self-reported by parents for themselves and their child. Behaviors were dichotomized on the basis of achievement of behavioral goals. Five confidence questions asked how confident the parent was in helping their child achieve each goal. Logistic regression modeling high confidence was conducted with goal achievement and demographics as independent variables. Parents achieving physical activity or sleep duration goals were significantly more likely to be highly confident in supporting their child's achievement of those goals (physical activity, odds ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval 1.19-2.60; sleep, odds ratio 1.74; 95% confidence interval 1.09-2.79) independent of sociodemographic variables and child's current behavior. Parental achievements of TV watching and fast food goals were also associated with confidence, but significance was attenuated after child's behavior was included in models. Parents' own obesity-related behaviors are factors that may affect their confidence to support their child's behavior change. Providers seeking to prevent childhood obesity should address parent/family behaviors as part of their obesity prevention strategies. Copyright © 2014 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-09-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

  12. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods.

  13. A Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp improves trainee confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Catherine K; Tannous, Paul; DeWitt, Elizabeth; Farias, Michael; Mansfield, Laura; Ronai, Christina; Schidlow, David; Sanders, Stephen P; Lock, James E; Newburger, Jane W; Brown, David W

    2016-12-01

    Introduction New paediatric cardiology trainees are required to rapidly assimilate knowledge and gain clinical skills to which they have limited or no exposure during residency. The Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp (PCBC) at Boston Children's Hospital was designed to provide incoming fellows with an intensive exposure to congenital cardiac pathology and a broad overview of major areas of paediatric cardiology practice. The PCBC curriculum was designed by core faculty in cardiac pathology, echocardiography, electrophysiology, interventional cardiology, exercise physiology, and cardiac intensive care. Individual faculty contributed learning objectives, which were refined by fellowship directors and used to build a programme of didactics, hands-on/simulation-based activities, and self-guided learning opportunities. A total of 16 incoming fellows participated in the 4-week boot camp, with no concurrent clinical responsibilities, over 2 years. On the basis of pre- and post-PCBC surveys, 80% of trainees strongly agreed that they felt more prepared for clinical responsibilities, and a similar percentage felt that PCBC should be offered to future incoming fellows. Fellows showed significant increase in their confidence in all specific knowledge and skills related to the learning objectives. Fellows rated hands-on learning experiences and simulation-based exercises most highly. We describe a novel 4-week-long boot camp designed to expose incoming paediatric cardiology fellows to the broad spectrum of knowledge and skills required for the practice of paediatric cardiology. The experience increased trainee confidence and sense of preparedness to begin fellowship-related responsibilities. Given that highly interactive activities were rated most highly, boot camps in paediatric cardiology should strongly emphasise these elements.

  14. Intelligence, Self-confidence and Entrepreneurship

    OpenAIRE

    Asoni, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    I investigate the effect of human capital on entrepreneurship using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth - 1979. I find that individuals with higher measured intelligence and self-confidence are more likely to be entrepreneurs. Furthermore I present evidence suggesting that intelligence and self-confidence affect business ownership through two different channels: intelligence increases business survival while self-confidence increases business creation. Finally, once we control for intel...

  15. Knowledge, Self Confidence and Courage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selberg, Hanne; Steenberg Holtzmann, Jette; Hovedskov, Jette

    2010-01-01

    in a safe and appreciative learning environment.The project has been evaluated in a formative design using a triangulation of questionnaires, field observations, focus group interviews and document reviews. This allowed for a continuously adjustment to the clinical context and the needs of the students...... skills.The clinical educators identified their major learning outcomes as improved competencies in synthesizing theory and practice and improved collaboration with the students. Conclusion The personal physical experience both in relation to hands-on training and patient-acting brought on a longer...... lasting learning experience than traditional education.Scenario based simulation in a clinical setting created a creative synthesis between simulation and clinical practice and between theory and practice in addition to improving the learning environment. Authors 1.Hanne Selberg, RN, Master in Educational...

  16. Confidence Intervals from One One Observation

    CERN Document Server

    Rodriguez, Carlos C

    2008-01-01

    Robert Machol's surprising result, that from a single observation it is possible to have finite length confidence intervals for the parameters of location-scale models, is re-produced and extended. Two previously unpublished modifications are included. First, Herbert Robbins nonparametric confidence interval is obtained. Second, I introduce a technique for obtaining confidence intervals for the scale parameter of finite length in the logarithmic metric. Keywords: Theory/Foundations , Estimation, Prior Distributions, Non-parametrics & Semi-parametrics Geometry of Inference, Confidence Intervals, Location-Scale models

  17. A model for developing disability confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, Sally; Cancelliere, Sara

    2017-05-15

    Many clinicians, educators, and employers lack disability confidence which can affect their interactions with, and inclusion of people with disabilities. Our objective was to explore how disability confidence developed among youth who volunteered with children who have a disability. We conducted 30 in-depth interviews (16 without a disability, 14 with disabilities), with youth aged 15-25. We analyzed our data using an interpretive, qualitative, thematic approach. We identified four main themes that led to the progression of disability confidence including: (1) "disability discomfort," referring to lacking knowledge about disability and experiencing unease around people with disabilities; (2) "reaching beyond comfort zone" where participants increased their understanding of disability and became sensitized to difference; (3) "broadened perspectives" where youth gained exposure to people with disabilities and challenged common misperceptions and stereotypes; and (4) "disability confidence" which includes having knowledge of people with disabilities, inclusive, and positive attitudes towards them. Volunteering is one way that can help to develop disability confidence. Youth with and without disabilities both reported a similar process of developing disability confidence; however, there were nuances between the two groups. Implications for Rehabilitation The development of disability confidence is important for enhancing the social inclusion of people with disabilities. Volunteering with people who have a disability, or a disability different from their own, can help to develop disability confidence which involves positive attitudes, empathy, and appropriate communication skills. Clinicians, educators, and employers should consider promoting working with disabled people through such avenues as volunteering or service learning to gain disability confidence.

  18. The STRIDE (Strategies to Increase confidence, InDependence and Energy) study: cognitive behavioural therapy-based intervention to reduce fear of falling in older fallers living in the community - study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, Steve W; Deary, Vincent; Finch, Tracy; Bamford, Claire; Sabin, Neil; McMeekin, Peter; O'Brien, John; Caldwell, Alma; Steen, Nick; Whitney, Susan L; Macdonald, Claire; McColl, Elaine

    2014-06-06

    Around 30% to 62% of older individuals fall each year, with adverse consequences of falls being by no means limited to physical injury and escalating levels of dependence. Many older individuals suffer from a variety of adverse psychosocial difficulties related to falling including fear, anxiety, loss of confidence and subsequent increasing activity avoidance, social isolation and frailty. Such 'fear of falling' is common and disabling, but definitive studies examining the effective management of the syndrome are lacking. Cognitive behavioural therapy has been trialed with some success in a group setting, but there is no adequately powered randomised controlled study of an individually based cognitive behavioural therapy intervention, and none using non-mental health professionals to deliver the intervention. We are conducting a two-phase study examining the role of individual cognitive behavioural therapy delivered by healthcare assistants in improving fear of falling in older adults. In Phase I, the intervention was developed and taught to healthcare assistants, while Phase II is the pragmatic randomised controlled study examining the efficacy of the intervention in improving fear of falling in community-dwelling elders attending falls services. A qualitative process evaluation study informed by Normalization Process Theory is being conducted throughout to examine the potential promoters and inhibitors of introducing such an intervention into routine clinical practice, while a health economic sub-study running alongside the trial is examining the costs and benefits of such an approach to the wider health economy. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN78396615.

  19. Development of 3-D lithostratigraphic and confidence models at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buesch, D.C.; Nelson, J.E.; Dickerson, R.P.; Spengler, R.W.

    1993-01-01

    Computerized three-dimensional geologic models of potential high-level nuclear waste repositories such as Yucca Moutain, Nevada, are important for visualizing the complex interplay of (1) thickness and facies variations in lithostratigraphic units and (2) the disruption of these units by faults. The concept of a 'model of confidence' in the lithostratigraphic model is introduced to show where data are located versus regions where interpolations are included. Models of confidence can be based on (1) expert judgment, (2) geostatistical analysis, or (3) a simplified combination of these two methods. Linking of lithostratigraphic models and models of confidence provide guidelines for future characterization and modeling activities, as well as for design and construction of the Exploratory Studies Facility.

  20. Self-confidence, gender and academic achievement of undergraduate nursing students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukulu, K; Korukcu, O; Ozdemir, Y; Bezci, A; Calik, C

    2013-04-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the self-confidence levels of nursing students and the factors related to such self-confidence. Data were obtained via a questionnaire for socio-demographic characteristics and a 'Self-Confidence Scale' prepared by the researchers. High self-confidence levels were noted in 78.6% of female students and 92.3% of male students. While 84.5% of second-year students had high self-confidence levels, this rate was 76% in fourth-year students. Female nursing students were significantly less self-confident than male students. Self-confidence should be nurtured in a caring nursing curriculum; however, there is a lack of clarity as to what confidence means, how it is perceived by students and what educators can do to instil self-confidence in nursing students.

  1. Fusing photovoltaic data for improved confidence intervals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ansgar Steland

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing and testing photovoltaic modules requires carefully made measurements on important variables such as the power output under standard conditions. When additional data is available, which has been collected using a different measurement system and therefore may be of different accuracy, the question arises how one can combine the information present in both data sets. In some cases one even has prior knowledge about the ordering of the variances of the measurement errors, which is not fully taken into account by commonly known estimators. We discuss several statistical estimators to combine the sample means of independent series of measurements, both under the assumption of heterogeneous variances and ordered variances. The critical issue is then to assess the estimator’s variance and to construct confidence intervals. We propose and discuss the application of a new jackknife variance estimator devised by [1] to such photovoltaic data, in order to assess the variability of common mean estimation under heterogeneous and ordered variances in a reliable and nonparametric way. When serial correlations are present, which usually a ect the marginal variances, it is proposed to construct a thinned data set by downsampling the series in such a way that autocorrelations are removed or dampened. We propose a data adaptive procedure which downsamples a series at irregularly spaced time points in such a way that the autocorrelations are minimized. The procedures are illustrated by applying them to real photovoltaic power output measurements from two different sun light flashers. In addition, focusing on simulations governed by real photovoltaic data, we investigate the accuracy of the jackknife approach and compare it with other approaches. Among those is a variance estimator based on Nair’s formula for Gaussian data and, as a parametric alternative, two Bayesian models. We investigate the statistical accuracy of the resulting confidence

  2. Metacognition and Confidence: Comparing Math to Other Academic Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanna eErickson

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

  3. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math. PMID:26082742

  4. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

  5. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-11-30

    An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve. It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated using a public dataset and simulations based on the Emax and sigmoid Emax models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Measurement of tag confidence in user generated contents retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sihyoung; Min, Hyun-Seok; Lee, Young Bok; Ro, Yong Man

    2009-01-01

    As online image sharing services are becoming popular, the importance of correctly annotated tags is being emphasized for precise search and retrieval. Tags created by user along with user-generated contents (UGC) are often ambiguous due to the fact that some tags are highly subjective and visually unrelated to the image. They cause unwanted results to users when image search engines rely on tags. In this paper, we propose a method of measuring tag confidence so that one can differentiate confidence tags from noisy tags. The proposed tag confidence is measured from visual semantics of the image. To verify the usefulness of the proposed method, experiments were performed with UGC database from social network sites. Experimental results showed that the image retrieval performance with confidence tags was increased.

  7. National study of parental confidence in general practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freed, Gary L; Spike, Neil; O'Hara, Jonathan; Hiscock, Harriet; Rhodes, Anthea L

    2017-09-03

    To assess a national sample of Australian parental confidence in general practitioner (GP) care for illness and injury for their children. Cross-sectional, internet-based survey of a national, representative sample of parents of children birth - 17 years in Australia was used. Purposeful recruitment was used to achieve a national, representative sample of 2100 Australian parents, reflective of demographic and geographic distribution based on census data. Parents were asked to indicate their degree of confidence in a GP to handle medical problems as well as their preference for, and use of, paediatric speciality care for their children. Fewer than half of parents (44%) reported that they were completely confident in a GP to provide general care as defined as 'can handle almost all general health issues for my child'. A slightly greater proportion of parents (56%) were completely confident in a GP to provide care for minor injuries, defined as injuries not requiring an X-ray. Greater confidence in general care was seen among parents >40 years of age and those whose GP is always bulk billed. Parental confidence in GPs is an important issue. Our findings that fewer than half of parents are completely confident in their GP to provide general care to their child may be an influencing factor on current health-care utilisation trends. The potential implications of low parental confidence in GPs are greater numbers of emergency department presentations for children with lower urgency conditions and increased referrals of children for specialty care. © 2017 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  8. Fechner's law in metacognition: A quantitative model of visual working memory confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Berg, Ronald; Yoo, Aspen H; Ma, Wei Ji

    2017-03-01

    Although visual working memory (VWM) has been studied extensively, it is unknown how people form confidence judgments about their memories. Peirce (1878) speculated that Fechner's law-which states that sensation is proportional to the logarithm of stimulus intensity-might apply to confidence reports. Based on this idea, we hypothesize that humans map the precision of their VWM contents to a confidence rating through Fechner's law. We incorporate this hypothesis into the best available model of VWM encoding and fit it to data from a delayed-estimation experiment. The model provides an excellent account of human confidence rating distributions as well as the relation between performance and confidence. Moreover, the best-fitting mapping in a model with a highly flexible mapping closely resembles the logarithmic mapping, suggesting that no alternative mapping exists that accounts better for the data than Fechner's law. We propose a neural implementation of the model and find that this model also fits the behavioral data well. Furthermore, we find that jointly fitting memory errors and confidence ratings boosts the power to distinguish previously proposed VWM encoding models by a factor of 5.99 compared to fitting only memory errors. Finally, we show that Fechner's law also accounts for metacognitive judgments in a word recognition memory task, which is a first indication that it may be a general law in metacognition. Our work presents the first model to jointly account for errors and confidence ratings in VWM and could lay the groundwork for understanding the computational mechanisms of metacognition. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. 75 FR 81037 - Waste Confidence Decision Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-23

    ... COMMISSION 10 CFR Part 51 Waste Confidence Decision Update AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Update and final revision of Waste Confidence Decision. SUMMARY: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission... update to the Decision were products of rulemaking proceedings designed to assess the degree of...

  10. Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Oshins

    2014-01-01

    Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

  11. Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Oshins

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

  12. Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches Slide presentation at GlobalChem conference and workshop in Washington, DC on Case Study on Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches

  13. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  14. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  15. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  16. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  17. Lower confidence limits for structure reliability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Jiading; LI Ji

    2006-01-01

    For a class of data often arising in engineering,we have developed an approach to compute the lower confidence limit for structure reliability with a given confidence level.Especially,in a case with no failure and a case with only one failure,the concrete computational methods are presented.

  18. Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, Marc M.

    2016-01-01

    We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.

  19. Self-confidence and metacognitive processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kleitman Sabina

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.

  20. Ensemble of classifiers for confidence-rated classification of NDE signal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Portia; Safdarnejad, Seyed; Udpa, Lalita; Udpa, Satish

    2016-02-01

    Ensemble of classifiers in general, aims to improve classification accuracy by combining results from multiple weak hypotheses into a single strong classifier through weighted majority voting. Improved versions of ensemble of classifiers generate self-rated confidence scores which estimate the reliability of each of its prediction and boost the classifier using these confidence-rated predictions. However, such a confidence metric is based only on the rate of correct classification. In existing works, although ensemble of classifiers has been widely used in computational intelligence, the effect of all factors of unreliability on the confidence of classification is highly overlooked. With relevance to NDE, classification results are affected by inherent ambiguity of classifica-tion, non-discriminative features, inadequate training samples and noise due to measurement. In this paper, we extend the existing ensemble classification by maximizing confidence of every classification decision in addition to minimizing the classification error. Initial results of the approach on data from eddy current inspection show improvement in classification performance of defect and non-defect indications.

  1. Confidence Intervals: From tests of statistical significance to confidence intervals, range hypotheses and substantial effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominic Beaulieu-Prévost

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available For the last 50 years of research in quantitative social sciences, the empirical evaluation of scientific hypotheses has been based on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis. However, more than 300 articles demonstrated that this method was problematic. In summary, null hypothesis testing (NHT is unfalsifiable, its results depend directly on sample size and the null hypothesis is both improbable and not plausible. Consequently, alternatives to NHT such as confidence intervals (CI and measures of effect size are starting to be used in scientific publications. The purpose of this article is, first, to provide the conceptual tools necessary to implement an approach based on confidence intervals, and second, to briefly demonstrate why such an approach is an interesting alternative to an approach based on NHT. As demonstrated in the article, the proposed CI approach avoids most problems related to a NHT approach and can often improve the scientific and contextual relevance of the statistical interpretations by testing range hypotheses instead of a point hypothesis and by defining the minimal value of a substantial effect. The main advantage of such a CI approach is that it replaces the notion of statistical power by an easily interpretable three-value logic (probable presence of a substantial effect, probable absence of a substantial effect and probabilistic undetermination. The demonstration includes a complete example.

  2. A Reformulation of Support Vector Machines for General Confidence Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yuhong; Schuurmans, Dale

    We present a generalized view of support vector machines that does not rely on a Euclidean geometric interpretation nor even positive semidefinite kernels. We base our development instead on the confidence matrix—the matrix normally determined by the direct (Hadamard) product of the kernel matrix with the label outer-product matrix. It turns out that alternative forms of confidence matrices are possible, and indeed useful. By focusing on the confidence matrix instead of the underlying kernel, we can derive an intuitive principle for optimizing example weights to yield robust classifiers. Our principle initially recovers the standard quadratic SVM training criterion, which is only convex for kernel-derived confidence measures. However, given our generalized view, we are then able to derive a principled relaxation of the SVM criterion that yields a convex upper bound. This relaxation is always convex and can be solved with a linear program. Our new training procedure obtains similar generalization performance to standard SVMs on kernel-derived confidence functions, but achieves even better results with indefinite confidence functions.

  3. Test Anxiety Reduction and Confidence Training: A Replication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, Noah; Driscoll, Richard

    2013-01-01

    This study was undertaken to replicate prior research in which a brief counter-conditioning and confidence training program was found to reduce anxiety and raise test scores. First-semester college students were screened with the Westside Test Anxiety Scale, and the 25 identified as having high or moderately-high anxiety were randomly divided…

  4. Building Scientific Confidence in Read-Across: Progress in ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presentation at the 41st Annual Winter Meeting of The Toxicology Forum - From Assay to Assessment: Incorporating High Throughput Strategies into Health and Safety Evaluations on Building Scientific Confidence in Read-Across: Progress in using HT Data to inform Read-Across Performance Presentation at the 41st Annual Winter Meeting of The Toxicology Forum - From Assay to Assessment: Incorporating High Throughput Strategies into Health and Safety Evaluations on Building Scientific Confidence in Read-Across: Progress in using HT Data to inform Read-Across Performance

  5. 利用改进非参数估计法的DEM误差置信区间估计%Confidence Interval Estimation for DEM Errors Based on a Modified Non-Parameter Estimating Function

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈传法; 卢秀山

    2011-01-01

    A modified non-parameter method(M-NPM) for the confidence interval estimation of DEM errors was developed based on NPM.Six different DEMs obtained by an airborne laser scanner were employed to comparatively analyze the accuracy of M-NPM and NPM.The six DEM error populations with three slightly non-normal and three very non-normal distributions were acquired with an across-validation process.Stochastic sampling from error populations allows us to report that when the sampling number is smaller than 40,both NPM and M-NPM are obviously affected by the degree of normality of the population distribution,but the influential degree of M-NPM is smaller than that of NPM.No matter what the population distribution is,and how many the sampling points are,the results of M-NPM are more robust than NPM,which is attributed to the fact that M-NPM presents wider confidence intervals than NPM.%为了降低误差母体分布的非正态性和较少采样数对DEM误差方差置信区间估计精度的影响,发展了改进的非参数估计法(M-NPM)。以机载激光扫描仪获取的6个不同区域的DEM数据为研究对象,基于交叉验证法分别获取了三组近似正态分布和三组非正态分布的DEM误差数据,并将其作为试验母体。从母体中随机采样,基于M-NPM获取方差置信度为95%的置信区间,借助母体进行精度验证,并与NPM结果比较。结果分析表明,当采样数小于40时,两种方法的模拟结果精度均受误差母体分布的影响,但M-NPM受影响的程度小于NPM;相比误差母体正态分布,当误差母体非正态分布时,M-NPM的估计精度明显优于NPM;无论误差母体服从何种分布,采样总量为多少,M-NPM的精度始终高于NPM,但M-NPM较高的精度是以较宽的置信区间为代价的。

  6. Subjective Confidence in Perceptual Judgments: A Test of the Self-Consistency Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koriat, Asher

    2011-01-01

    Two questions about subjective confidence in perceptual judgments are examined: the bases for these judgments and the reasons for their accuracy. Confidence in perceptual judgments has been claimed to rest on qualitatively different processes than confidence in memory tasks. However, predictions from a self-consistency model (SCM), which had been…

  7. Early Childhood Practicum Students' Professional Growth in the USA: Areas of Confidence and Concern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wee, Su-Jeong; Weber, Elsa K.; Park, Soyeon

    2014-01-01

    This research examines specific areas of confidence and concern as expressed by 40 American undergraduate early childhood students on a practicum (supervised field-based internships); if their beliefs changed over the course of their practicum, and if prior teaching experience had an impact on their confidence levels. Areas of confidence and…

  8. Early Childhood Practicum Students' Professional Growth in the USA: Areas of Confidence and Concern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wee, Su-Jeong; Weber, Elsa K.; Park, Soyeon

    2014-01-01

    This research examines specific areas of confidence and concern as expressed by 40 American undergraduate early childhood students on a practicum (supervised field-based internships); if their beliefs changed over the course of their practicum, and if prior teaching experience had an impact on their confidence levels. Areas of confidence and…

  9. Subjective Confidence in Perceptual Judgments: A Test of the Self-Consistency Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koriat, Asher

    2011-01-01

    Two questions about subjective confidence in perceptual judgments are examined: the bases for these judgments and the reasons for their accuracy. Confidence in perceptual judgments has been claimed to rest on qualitatively different processes than confidence in memory tasks. However, predictions from a self-consistency model (SCM), which had been…

  10. Early Childhood Practicum Students' Professional Growth in the USA: Areas of Confidence and Concern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wee, Su-Jeong; Weber, Elsa K.; Park, Soyeon

    2014-01-01

    This research examines specific areas of confidence and concern as expressed by 40 American undergraduate early childhood students on a practicum (supervised field-based internships); if their beliefs changed over the course of their practicum, and if prior teaching experience had an impact on their confidence levels. Areas of confidence and…

  11. Differentiating small (≤1 cm) focal liver lesions as metastases or cysts by means of computed tomography: a case-study to illustrate a fuzzy logic-based method to assess the impact of diagnostic confidence on radiological diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girometti, Rossano; Fabris, Francesco; Sgarro, Andrea; Zanella, Gloria; Pullini, Serena; Cereser, Lorenzo; Como, Giuseppe; Zuiani, Chiara; Bazzocchi, Massimo

    2014-01-01

    To quantify the impact of diagnostic confidence on radiological diagnosis with a fuzzy logic-based method. Twenty-two oncologic patients with 20 cysts and 30 metastases ≤1 cm in size found at 64-row computed tomography were included. Two readers (R1/R2) expressed diagnoses as a subjective level of confidence P(d) in malignancy within the interval [0,1] rather than on a "crisp" basis (malignant/benign); confidence in benignancy was 1 - p(d). When cross-tabulating data according to the standard of reference, 2 × 2 table cells resulted from the aggregation between p(d)/1 - p(d) and final diagnosis. We then assessed (i) readers diagnostic performance on a fuzzy and crisp basis; (ii) the "divergence" δ(F, C) (%) as a measure of how confidence impacted on crisp diagnosis. Diagnoses expressed with lower confidence increased fuzzy false positives compared to crisp ones (from 0 to 0.2 for R1; from 1 to 2.4 for R2). Crisp/fuzzy accuracy was 94.0%/93.6% (R1) and 94.0/91.6% (R2). δ(F, C) (%) was larger in the case of the less experienced reader (R2) (up to +7.95% for specificity). According to simulations, δ(F, C) (%) was negative/positive depending on the level of confidence in incorrect diagnoses. Fuzzy evaluation shows a measurable effect of uncertainty on radiological diagnoses.

  12. European Businesses Remain Confident about China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    @@ On June 30th, 2009, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China launches its sixth annual European Chamber Business Confidence Survey, which is published in partnership with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.

  13. Confidence intervals with a priori parameter bounds

    CERN Document Server

    Lokhov, A V

    2014-01-01

    We review the methods of constructing confidence intervals that account for a priori information about one-sided constraints on the parameter being estimated. We show that the so-called method of sensitivity limit yields a correct solution of the problem. Derived are the solutions for the cases of a continuous distribution with non-negative estimated parameter and a discrete distribution, specifically a Poisson process with background. For both cases, the best upper limit is constructed that accounts for the a priori information. A table is provided with the confidence intervals for the parameter of Poisson distribution that correctly accounts for the information on the known value of the background along with the software for calculating the confidence intervals for any confidence levels and magnitudes of the background (the software is freely available for download via Internet).

  14. When business is a confidence game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, J W; Alba, J W

    2001-06-01

    When it comes to making business decisions, being overconfident about your choices can actually be more harmful than just guessing. Here's how managers can calibrate their confidence levels-and avoid being too sure in the wrong situations.

  15. Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven

    2013-10-23

    The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.

  16. The Asteroid Identification Problem. II. Target Plane Confidence Boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milani, Andrea; Valsecchi, Giovanni B.

    1999-08-01

    The nominal orbit solution for an asteroid/comet resulting from a least squares fit to astrometric observations is surrounded by a region containing solutions equally compatible with the data, the confidence region. If the observed arc is not too short, and for an epoch close to the observations, the confidence region in the six-dimensional space of orbital elements is well approximated by an ellipsoid. This uncertainty of the orbital elements maps to a position uncertainty at close approach, which can be represented on a Modified Target Plane (MTP), a modification of the one used by Öpik. The MTP is orthogonal to the geocentric velocity at the closest approach point along the nominal orbit. In the linear approximation, the confidence ellipsoids are mapped on the MTP into concentric ellipses, computed by solving the variational equation. For an object observed at only one opposition, however, if the close approach is expected after many revolutions, the ellipses on the MTP become extremely elongated, therefore the linear approximation may fail, and the confidence boundaries on the MTP, by definition the nonlinear images of the confidence ellipsoids, may not be well approximated by the ellipses. In theory the Monte Carlo method by Muinonen and Bowell (1993, Icarus104, 255-279) can be used to compute the nonlinear confidence boundaries, but in practice the computational load is very heavy. We propose a new method to compute semilinear confidence boundaries on the MTP, based on the theory developed by Milani (1999, Icarus137, 269-292) to efficiently compute confidence boundaries for predicted observations. This method is a reasonable compromise between reliability and computational load, and can be used for real time risk assessment. These arguments can be applied to any small body approaching any planet, but in the case of a potentially hazardous object (PHO), either an asteroid or a comet whose orbit comes very close to that of the Earth, the application is most

  17. Intermetallic-based high-temperature materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikka, V.K.

    1999-07-01

    The intermetallic-based alloys for high-temperature applications are introduced. General characteristics of intermetallics are followed by identification of nickel and iron aluminides as the most practical alloys for commercial applications. An overview of the alloy compositions, melting processes, and mechanical properties for nickel and iron aluminizes are presented. The current applications and commercial producers of nickel and iron aluminides are given. A brief description of the future prospects of intermetallic-based alloys is also given.

  18. Intermetallic-Based High-Temperature Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikka, V.K.

    1999-04-25

    The intermetallic-based alloys for high-temperature applications are introduced. General characteristics of intermetallics are followed by identification of nickel and iron aluminides as the most practical alloys for commercial applications. An overview of the alloy compositions, melting processes, and mechanical properties for nickel and iron aluminizes are presented. The current applications and commercial producers of nickel and iron aluminizes are given. A brief description of the future prospects of intermetallic-based alloys is also given.

  19. Econometric analysis of realized covariation: high frequency based covariance, regression, and correlation in financial economics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler; Shephard, N.

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyses multivariate high frequency financial data using realized covariation. We provide a new asymptotic distribution theory for standard methods such as regression, correlation analysis, and covariance. It will be based on a fixed interval of time (e.g., a day or week), allowing...... the number of high frequency returns during this period to go to infinity. Our analysis allows us to study how high frequency correlations, regressions, and covariances change through time. In particular we provide confidence intervals for each of these quantities....

  20. HIGH PERFORMANCE CERIA BASED OXYGEN MEMBRANE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    The invention describes a new class of highly stable mixed conducting materials based on acceptor doped cerium oxide (CeO2-8 ) in which the limiting electronic conductivity is significantly enhanced by co-doping with a second element or co- dopant, such as Nb, W and Zn, so that cerium and the co...

  1. Sieving hydrogen based on its high compressibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hangyan; Sun, Deyan; Gong, Xingao; Liu, Zhifeng

    2011-03-01

    Based on carbon nanotube intramolecular junction and a C60, a molecular sieve for hydrogen is presented. The small interspace between C60 and junction provides a size changeable channel for the permselectivity of hydrogen while blocking Ne and Ar. The sieving mechanism is due to the high compressibility of hydrogen.

  2. Continued Commitment Not Unconditional——Business Confidence Survey 2010

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guo Yan

    2010-01-01

    @@ The European Union Chamber of Commerce Business Confidence Survey 2010 was released by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China in partnership with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants on June 29,2010,which surveyed over 500 European companies based in China between March and April of 2010.

  3. Testing 40 Predictions from the Transtheoretical Model Again, with Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velicer, Wayne F.; Brick, Leslie Ann D.; Fava, Joseph L.; Prochaska, James O.

    2013-01-01

    Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions.…

  4. Continued misinterpretation of confidence intervals : Response to Miller and Ulrich

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, Richard D.; Hoekstra, Rink; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2015-01-01

    Miller and Ulrich (2015) critique our claim (Hoekstra et al., Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21(5), 1157–1164, 2014), based on a survey given to researchers and students, of widespread misunderstanding of confidence intervals (CIs). They suggest that survey respondents may have interpreted the state

  5. Constructing seasonally adjusted data with time-varying confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.J. Koopman (Siem Jan); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractSeasonal adjustment methods transform observed time series data into estimated data, where these estimated data are constructed such that they show no or almost no seasonal variation. An advantage of model-based methods is that these can provide confidence intervals around the seasonally

  6. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  7. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  8. Institutional Confidence in the United States: Attitudes of Secular Americans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabella Kasselstrand

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The First Amendment to the United States’ Constitution addresses freedom of religion and the separation of church and state. However, the historical influence of religion in laws, policies, and political representation have left secular individuals feeling excluded. At the same time, levels of confidence in social and political institutions in the United States are at an all-time low. This begs the question: Is there a relationship between secularity and confidence in various social and political institutions (e.g. the armed forces, churches, major companies, government, police, and political parties? This question is examined using data on the United States from the World Values Survey from 1995–2011. While controlling for a range of key demographics, the findings show a negative relationship between secularity and institutional confidence. More specifically, atheists and nonreligious individuals are less likely than those who are religious to have confidence in all six institutions. Based on previous literature and the empirical evidence presented in this study, we argue that overall lower levels of institutional confidence among secular Americans is an outcome of the exclusion of such individuals from American social life. Thus, it highlights the importance of addressing the stereotypes and prejudice that this minority group faces.

  9. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Qian Sun

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  10. Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew

    2015-01-01

    Leaders in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food industries expressed a unilateral concern over product confidence throughout the total product lifecycle, an unsettling fact for these leaders to manage given that their products affect the lives of millions of people each year. Fueled by the heparin incident of intentional adulteration in 2008, initial efforts for increasing product confidence were focused on improving the confidence of incoming materials, with a belief that supplier performance must be the root cause. As in the heparin case, concern over supplier performance extended deep into the supply chain to include suppliers of the suppliers-which is often a blind spot for pharmaceutical, device, and food manufacturers. Resolved to address the perceived lack of supplier performance, these U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-regulated industries began to adopt the supplier relationship management strategy, developed by the automotive industry, that emphasizes "management" of suppliers for the betterment of the manufacturers. Current product and supplier management strategies, however, have not led to a significant improvement in product confidence. As a result of the enduring concern by industry leaders over the lack of product confidence, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and FDA officials. Through a methodical research approach, data generated by the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers surprisingly pointed to themselves as a source of the lack of product confidence, and revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. It is only through this paradigm shift that manufacturers can work collaboratively with their suppliers as equal partners, instead of viewing their suppliers as "lesser" entities needing to be controlled. The basis of this shift provides manufacturers

  11. Relating the Content and Confidence of Recognition Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selmeczy, Diana; Dobbins, Ian G.

    2014-01-01

    The Remember/Know procedure, developed by Tulving (1985) to capture the distinction between the conscious correlates of episodic and semantic retrieval, has spurned considerable research and debate. However, only a handful of reports have examined the recognition content beyond this dichotomous simplification. To address this, we collected participants’ written justifications in support of ordinary old/new recognition decisions accompanied by confidence ratings using a 3-point scale (high/medium/low). Unlike prior research, we did not provide the participants with any descriptions of Remembering or Knowing and thus, if the justifications mapped well onto theory, they would do so spontaneously. Word frequency analysis (unigrams, bigrams, and trigrams), independent ratings, and machine learning techniques (Support Vector Machine - SVM) converged in demonstrating that the linguistic content of high and medium confidence recognition differs in a manner consistent with dual process theories of recognition. For example, the use of ‘I remember’, particularly when combined with temporal or perceptual information (e.g., ‘when’, ‘saw’, ‘distinctly’), was heavily associated with high confidence recognition. Conversely, participants also used the absence of remembering for personally distinctive materials as support for high confidence new reports (‘would have remembered’). Thus, participants afford a special status to the presence or absence of remembering and use this actively as a basis for high confidence during recognition judgments. Additionally, the pattern of classification successes and failures of a SVM was well anticipated by the Dual Process Signal Detection model of recognition and inconsistent with a single process, strictly unidimensional approach. “One might think that memory should have something to do with remembering, and remembering is a conscious experience.”(Tulving, 1985, p. 1) PMID:23957366

  12. MorePower 6.0 for ANOVA with relational confidence intervals and Bayesian analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Jamie I D; Thompson, Valerie A

    2012-12-01

    MorePower 6.0 is a flexible freeware statistical calculator that computes sample size, effect size, and power statistics for factorial ANOVA designs. It also calculates relational confidence intervals for ANOVA effects based on formulas from Jarmasz and Hollands (Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology 63:124-138, 2009), as well as Bayesian posterior probabilities for the null and alternative hypotheses based on formulas in Masson (Behavior Research Methods 43:679-690, 2011). The program is unique in affording direct comparison of these three approaches to the interpretation of ANOVA tests. Its high numerical precision and ability to work with complex ANOVA designs could facilitate researchers' attention to issues of statistical power, Bayesian analysis, and the use of confidence intervals for data interpretation. MorePower 6.0 is available at https://wiki.usask.ca/pages/viewpageattachments.action?pageId=420413544 .

  13. Python based high-level synthesis compiler

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieszewski, Radosław; Pozniak, Krzysztof; Romaniuk, Ryszard

    2014-11-01

    This paper presents a python based High-Level synthesis (HLS) compiler. The compiler interprets an algorithmic description of a desired behavior written in Python and map it to VHDL. FPGA combines many benefits of both software and ASIC implementations. Like software, the mapped circuit is flexible, and can be reconfigured over the lifetime of the system. FPGAs therefore have the potential to achieve far greater performance than software as a result of bypassing the fetch-decode-execute operations of traditional processors, and possibly exploiting a greater level of parallelism. Creating parallel programs implemented in FPGAs is not trivial. This article describes design, implementation and first results of created Python based compiler.

  14. Maximum confidence measurements via probabilistic quantum cloning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Wen-Hai; Yu Long-Bao; Cao Zhuo-Liang; Ye Liu

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic quantum cloning (PQC) cannot copy a set of linearly dependent quantum states.In this paper,we show that if incorrect copies are allowed to be produced,linearly dependent quantum states may also be cloned by the PQC.By exploiting this kind of PQC to clone a special set of three linearly dependent quantum states,we derive the upper bound of the maximum confidence measure of a set.An explicit transformation of the maximum confidence measure is presented.

  15. Using the Reliability Theory for Assessing the Decision Confidence Probability for Comparative Life Cycle Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Wei; Larrey-Lassalle, Pyrène; Faure, Thierry; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Roux, Philippe; Mathias, Jean-Denis

    2016-03-01

    Comparative decision making process is widely used to identify which option (system, product, service, etc.) has smaller environmental footprints and for providing recommendations that help stakeholders take future decisions. However, the uncertainty problem complicates the comparison and the decision making. Probability-based decision support in LCA is a way to help stakeholders in their decision-making process. It calculates the decision confidence probability which expresses the probability of a option to have a smaller environmental impact than the one of another option. Here we apply the reliability theory to approximate the decision confidence probability. We compare the traditional Monte Carlo method with a reliability method called FORM method. The Monte Carlo method needs high computational time to calculate the decision confidence probability. The FORM method enables us to approximate the decision confidence probability with fewer simulations than the Monte Carlo method by approximating the response surface. Moreover, the FORM method calculates the associated importance factors that correspond to a sensitivity analysis in relation to the probability. The importance factors allow stakeholders to determine which factors influence their decision. Our results clearly show that the reliability method provides additional useful information to stakeholders as well as it reduces the computational time.

  16. Domain Decomposition Based High Performance Parallel Computing

    CERN Document Server

    Raju, Mandhapati P

    2009-01-01

    The study deals with the parallelization of finite element based Navier-Stokes codes using domain decomposition and state-ofart sparse direct solvers. There has been significant improvement in the performance of sparse direct solvers. Parallel sparse direct solvers are not found to exhibit good scalability. Hence, the parallelization of sparse direct solvers is done using domain decomposition techniques. A highly efficient sparse direct solver PARDISO is used in this study. The scalability of both Newton and modified Newton algorithms are tested.

  17. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  18. Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Jaeger

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.

  19. Diagnosing dementia with confidence by GPs.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hout, H.P.J. van; Vernooij-Dassen, M.J.F.J.; Stalman, W.A.B.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Earlier reports suggest limited clinical reasoning and substantial uncertainty of GPs in assessing patients suspected of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictors of GPs to decide on the presence and absence of dementia as well as the predictors of diagnostic confidence of GPs.

  20. Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Douglas A.

    This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…

  1. Diagnosing dementia with confidence by GPs.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hout, H.P.J. van; Vernooij-Dassen, M.J.F.J.; Stalman, W.A.B.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Earlier reports suggest limited clinical reasoning and substantial uncertainty of GPs in assessing patients suspected of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictors of GPs to decide on the presence and absence of dementia as well as the predictors of diagnostic confidence of GPs. DESI

  2. Computation of confidence intervals for Poisson processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar-Saavedra, J. A.

    2000-07-01

    We present an algorithm which allows a fast numerical computation of Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals for Poisson processes, even when the number of background events is relatively large. This algorithm incorporates an appropriate treatment of the singularities that arise as a consequence of the discreteness of the variable.

  3. Computation of confidence intervals for Poisson processes

    CERN Document Server

    Aguilar-Saavedra, J A

    2000-01-01

    We present an algorithm which allows a fast numerical computation of Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals for Poisson processes, even when the number of background events is relatively large. This algorithm incorporates an appropriate treatment of the singularities that arise as a consequence of the discreteness of the variable.

  4. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, L.; Perotti, E.C.

    2001-01-01

    Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that sus

  5. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; Laeven, L.; van Oijen, P.

    2000-01-01

    Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that sus

  6. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, L.; Perotti, E.C.

    2001-01-01

    Investor confidence is a necessary condition for the development of emerging markets. Investors recognize that since market-oriented reform policies may be reversed or hindered, they face the risk of ex post policy changes with redistributive impact on investment returns. We argue that a sustained p

  7. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  8. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  9. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  10. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; Laeven, L.; van Oijen, P.

    2000-01-01

    Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that

  11. Nutrition Knowledge, Attitudes, and Confidence of Australian General Practice Registrars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caryl A. Nowson

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Nutrition knowledge, attitudes, and confidence were assessed in General Practice Registrars (GPRs throughout Australia. Of approximately 6,000 GPRs invited to complete a nutrition survey, 93 respondents (2% completed the online survey, with 89 (20 males, 69 females providing demographic and educational information. Fifty-one percent had graduated from medical school within the last two years. From a list of 11 dietary strategies to reduce cardiovascular risk, respondents selected weight loss (84%, reducing saturated fats (90%, a maximum of two alcoholic drinks/day (82%, and increasing vegetables (83% as “highly appropriate” strategies, with only 51% indicating that salt reduction was “highly appropriate.” Two-thirds of registrars felt “moderately” (51% or “very” confident (16% providing nutrition advice. Most of them (84% recalled receiving information during training, but only 34% recalled having to demonstrate nutritional knowledge. The results indicate that this group of Australian GPRs understood most of the key dietary recommendations for reducing cardiovascular risk but lacked consensus regarding the recommendation to reduce salt intake and expressed mixed levels of confidence in providing nutritional advice. Appropriate nutrition education before and after graduation is recommended for GPRs to ensure the development of skills and confidence to support patients to make healthy dietary choices and help prevent chronic diseases.

  12. Diamond based detectors for high temperature, high radiation environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, A.; Fern, G. R.; Hobson, P. R.; Smith, D. R.; Lefeuvre, G.; Saenger, R.

    2017-01-01

    Single crystal CVD diamond has many desirable properties as a radiation detector; exceptional radiation hardness and physical hardness, chemical inertness, low Z (close to human tissue, good for dosimetry and transmission mode applications), wide bandgap (high temperature operation with low noise and solar blind), an intrinsic pathway to fast neutron detection through the 12C(n,α)9Be reaction. This combination of radiation hardness, temperature tolerance and ability to detect mixed radiation types with a single sensor makes diamond particularly attractive as a detector material for harsh environments such as nuclear power station monitoring (fission and fusion) and oil well logging. Effective exploitation of these properties requires the development of a metallisation scheme to give contacts that remain stable over extended periods at elevated temperatures (up to 250°C in this instance). Due to the cost of the primary detector material, computational modelling is essential to best utilise the available processing methods for optimising sensor response through geometry and conversion media configurations and to fully interpret experimental data. Monte Carlo simulations of our diamond based sensor have been developed, using MCNP6 and FLUKA2011, assessing the sensor performance in terms of spectral response and overall efficiency as a function of the detector and converter geometry. Sensors with varying metallisation schemes for high temperature operation have been fabricated at Brunel University London and by Micron Semiconductor Limited. These sensors have been tested under a varied set of conditions including irradiation with fast neutrons and alpha particles at high temperatures. The presented study indicates that viable metallisation schemes for high temperature contacts have been successfully developed and the modelling results, supported by preliminary experimental data from partners, indicate that the simulations provide a reasonable representation of

  13. Parents' confidence in recommended childhood vaccinations: Extending the assessment, expanding the context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowak, Glen J; Cacciatore, Michael A

    2017-03-04

    There has been significant and growing interest in vaccine hesitancy and confidence in the United States as well as across the globe. While studies have used confidence measures, few studies have provided in-depth assessments and no studies have assessed parents' confidence in vaccines in relationship to other frequently recommended health-related products for young children. This study used a nationally representative sample of 1000 US parents to identify confidence levels for recommended vaccinations, antibiotics, over-the-counter (OTC) medicines, and vitamins for children. The analyses examined associations between confidence ratings, vaccination behaviors and intentions, and trust in healthcare provider, along with associations between confidence ratings and use of the other health-related products. Parents' confidence in vaccines was relatively high and high relative to antibiotics, OTC medicines and vitamins. For all 4 health-related products examined, past product experience and knowledge of bad or adverse outcomes negatively impacted parents' confidence levels. Confidence levels were associated with both trust in advice from their child's healthcare provider and acceptance of healthcare provider recommendations. Parents in some groups, such as those with lower income and education levels, were more likely to have less confidence not just in vaccines, but also in antibiotics and OTC medicines for children. Overall, the findings extend understanding of vaccine confidence, including by placing it into a broader context.

  14. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  15. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  16. Highly stretchable nanoalginate based polyurethane elastomers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daemi, Hamed; Barikani, Mehdi; Barmar, Mohammad

    2013-06-20

    Highly stretchable elastomeric samples based on cationic polyurethane dispersions-sodium alginate nanoparticles (CPUD/SA) were prepared by the solution blending of sodium alginate and aqueous polyurethane dispersions. CPUDs were synthesized by step growth polymerization technique using N-methyldiethanolamine (MDEA) as a source of cationic emulsifier. The chemical structure and thermal-mechanical properties of these systems were characterized using FTIR and DMTA, respectively. The presence of nanoalginate particles including nanobead and nanorod particles were proved by SEM and EDX. It was observed that thermal properties of composites increased with increasing SA content. All prepared samples were known as thermoplastic-elastomers with high percentages of elongation. Excellent compatibility of prepared nanocomposites was proved by the DMTA data.

  17. Silver based batteries for high power applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpinski, A. P.; Russell, S. J.; Serenyi, J. R.; Murphy, J. P.

    The present status of silver oxide-zinc technology and applications has been described by Karpinski et al. [A.P. Karpinski, B. Makovetski, S.J. Russell, J.R. Serenyi, D.C. Williams, Silver-Zinc: status of technology and applications, Journal of Power Sources, 80 (1999) 53-60], where the silver-zinc couple is still the preferred choice where high specific energy/energy density, coupled with high specific power/power density are important for high-rate, weight or size/configuration sensitive applications. Perhaps the silver oxide cathode can be considered one of the most versatile electrode materials. When coupled with other anodes and corresponding electrolyte management system, the silver electrode provides for a wide array of electrochemical systems that can be tailored to meet the most demanding, high power requirements. Besides zinc, the most notable include cadmium, iron, metal hydride, and hydrogen electrode for secondary systems, while primary systems include lithium and aluminum. Alloys including silver are also available, such as silver chloride, which when coupled with magnesium or aluminum are primarily used in many seawater applications. The selection and use of these couples is normally the result of a trade-off of many factors. These include performance, safety, risk, reliability, and cost. When high power is required, silver oxide-zinc, silver oxide-aluminum, and silver oxide-lithium are the most energetic. For moderate performance (i.e., lower power), silver oxide-zinc or silver-cadmium would be the system of choice. This paper summarizes the suitability of the silver-based couples, with an emphasis on the silver-zinc system, as primary or rechargeable power sources for high energy/power applications.

  18. Mesolimbic confidence signals guide perceptual learning in the absence of external feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guggenmos, Matthias; Wilbertz, Gregor; Hebart, Martin N; Sterzer, Philipp

    2016-03-29

    It is well established that learning can occur without external feedback, yet normative reinforcement learning theories have difficulties explaining such instances of learning. Here, we propose that human observers are capable of generating their own feedback signals by monitoring internal decision variables. We investigated this hypothesis in a visual perceptual learning task using fMRI and confidence reports as a measure for this monitoring process. Employing a novel computational model in which learning is guided by confidence-based reinforcement signals, we found that mesolimbic brain areas encoded both anticipation and prediction error of confidence-in remarkable similarity to previous findings for external reward-based feedback. We demonstrate that the model accounts for choice and confidence reports and show that the mesolimbic confidence prediction error modulation derived through the model predicts individual learning success. These results provide a mechanistic neurobiological explanation for learning without external feedback by augmenting reinforcement models with confidence-based feedback.

  19. Impact of an Advanced Cardiac Life Support Simulation Laboratory Experience on Pharmacy Student Confidence and Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Whitney D; Mohorn, Phillip L; Haney, Jason S; Phillips, Cynthia M; Lu, Z Kevin; Clark, Kimberly; Corboy, Alex; Ragucci, Kelly R

    2016-10-25

    Objective. To assess the impact of an advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) simulation on pharmacy student confidence and knowledge. Design. Third-year pharmacy students participated in a simulation experience that consisted of team roles training, high-fidelity ACLS simulations, and debriefing. Students completed a pre/postsimulation confidence and knowledge assessment. Assessment. Overall, student knowledge assessment scores and student confidence scores improved significantly. Student confidence and knowledge changes from baseline were not significantly correlated. Conversely, a significant, weak positive correlation between presimulation studying and both presimulation confidence and presimulation knowledge was discovered. Conclusions. Overall, student confidence and knowledge assessment scores in ACLS significantly improved from baseline; however, student confidence and knowledge were not significantly correlated.

  20. SOCIAL MEDIA – VITAL INSTRUMENT IN GAINING CONSUMERS CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela-Cristina VOICU

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given that, currently, the consumer has become more demanding and organizations face some of the greatest challenges due to the economic climate of recent years, the need to build and cultivate strong relationships has become vital not only for the company's success but also for its survival. And solid relationships are built over time through confidence. Trust is one of the most important elements in the process of purchasing and consumer loyalty; it is difficult to obtain but easy to lose. Companies that are enjoying a high degree of confidence benefit from best quotations for their shares, higher profits and a better retention of the best employees. The effects of the lack of confidence are obvious (unsatisfied consumers, lost sales and very expensive for the company. In this context, through the following paper we seek to bring more understanding on how a company can gain the confidence of consumers given that the forms of communication that consumers prefer and that are gaining momentum currently, are taking place online, especially in the social media.

  1. Nurturing Confidence in Preservice Elementary Science Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleicher, Robert E.

    2007-12-01

    This study examined changes in personal science teaching self-efficacy (PSTE), outcome expectancy (STOE), and science conceptual understanding and relationships among these in preservice teachers. Seventy preservice teachers enrolled in science teaching methods courses participated in this study. PSTE, STOE, and science conceptual understanding increased significantly during participation in the course. The study established that novice learners with minimal prior knowledge could not be expected to understand and employ core concepts in their learning schema without extensive guidance. The relationship between science learning confidence and science teaching confidence has not been theoretically delineated in the area of science teacher education. Findings suggest there may be important connections between the 2 for preservice teachers that would be fruitful areas for future research.

  2. A bounded confidence approach to understanding user participation in peer production systems

    CERN Document Server

    Ciampaglia, Giovanni Luca

    2011-01-01

    Commons-based peer production does seem to rest upon a paradox. Although users produce all contents, at the same time participation is commonly on a voluntary basis, and largely incentivized by achievement of project's goals. This means that users have to coordinate their actions and goals, in order to keep themselves from leaving. While this situation is easily explainable for small groups of highly committed, like-minded individuals, little is known about large-scale, heterogeneous projects, such as Wikipedia. In this contribution we present a model of peer production in a large online community. The model features a dynamic population of bounded confidence users, and an endogenous process of user departure. Using global sensitivity analysis, we identify the most important parameters affecting the lifespan of user participation. We find that the model presents two distinct regimes, and that the shift between them is governed by the bounded confidence parameter. For low values of this parameter, users depart...

  3. Learning about confidence intervals with software R

    OpenAIRE

    Gariela Gonçalves; Luís Afonso; Marta Ferreira; Teresa Ferro; Nascimento, Maria M.

    2013-01-01

    This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through t...

  4. Understanding Confidence Intervals With Visual Representations

    OpenAIRE

    Navruz, Bilgin; DELEN, Erhan

    2014-01-01

    In the present paper, we showed how confidence intervals (CIs) are valuable and useful in research studies when they are used in the correct form with correct interpretations. The sixth edition of the APA (2010) Publication Manual strongly recommended reporting CIs in research studies, and it was described as “the best reporting strategy” (p. 34). Misconceptions and correct interpretations of CIs were presented from several textbooks. In addition, limitations of the null hypothesis statistica...

  5. Self-Confidence and Social Interactions

    OpenAIRE

    Roland Benabou; Jean Tirole

    2000-01-01

    This paper studies the interactions between an individual's self esteem and his social environment in the workplace, at school, and in personal relationships. Because a person generally has only imperfect knowledge of his own abilities, people who derive benefits from his performance (parent, spouse, friend, teacher, manager, etc.) have incentives to manipulate his self confidence. We first study situations where an informed principal chooses an incentive structure, such as offering payments ...

  6. Confidence Sets for a Change-Point.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-10-01

    probability credible set for j. In fact, even without the explicit evaluation in (1), one knows from a general theorem of Stein (1965) and Hora and...confidence sets with smallest expected measure, Ann. Statist. , 10, 1283-94. Hora , R. B. and Buehler, R. J. (1966), Fiducial theory and invariant...simple cumulative sum type statistic for the change-point problem -’-"C with zero -one observations, Biometrika 67, 79-84. Raferty, A. E. and Akman, V

  7. 基于增量队列的在全置信度下的关联挖掘%Association Mining on Massive Text under Full Confidence Based on Incremental Queue

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘炜

    2015-01-01

    关联挖掘是一种重要的数据分析方法, 提出了一种在全置信度下的增量队列关联挖掘算法模型, 在传统的 FP-Growth 及 PF-Tree 算法的关联挖掘中使用了全置信度规则, 算法的适应性得到提升, 由此提出FP4W-Growth 算法并运用到对文本数据的关联计算以及对增量式的数据进行关联性挖掘的研究中, 通过实验验证了此算法及模型的可行性与优化性, 为在庞大的文本数据中发现隐藏着的先前未知的并潜在有用的新信息和新模式, 提供了科学的决策方法.%Association mining is an important data analysis method, this article proposes an incremental queue association mining algorithm model under full confidence,using the full confidence rules in the traditional FP-Growth and PF-Tree association mining algorithm can improve the algorithm adaptability. Thus, the article proposes FP4W-Growth algorithm, and applies this algotithm to the association calculation of text data and association mining of incremental data. Then this paper conducted verification experiment. The experimental results show the feasibility of this algorithm and model. The article provides a scientific approach to finding hidden but useful information and patterns from large amount of text data.

  8. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

  9. Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

    2014-05-01

    One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input

  10. Calibration with confidence: a principled method for panel assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKay, R. S.; Low, R. J.; Parker, S.

    2017-01-01

    Frequently, a set of objects has to be evaluated by a panel of assessors, but not every object is assessed by every assessor. A problem facing such panels is how to take into account different standards among panel members and varying levels of confidence in their scores. Here, a mathematically based algorithm is developed to calibrate the scores of such assessors, addressing both of these issues. The algorithm is based on the connectivity of the graph of assessors and objects evaluated, incorporating declared confidences as weights on its edges. If the graph is sufficiently well connected, relative standards can be inferred by comparing how assessors rate objects they assess in common, weighted by the levels of confidence of each assessment. By removing these biases, ‘true’ values are inferred for all the objects. Reliability estimates for the resulting values are obtained. The algorithm is tested in two case studies: one by computer simulation and another based on realistic evaluation data. The process is compared to the simple averaging procedure in widespread use, and to Fisher's additive incomplete block analysis. It is anticipated that the algorithm will prove useful in a wide variety of situations such as evaluation of the quality of research submitted to national assessment exercises; appraisal of grant proposals submitted to funding panels; ranking of job applicants; and judgement of performances on degree courses wherein candidates can choose from lists of options. PMID:28386432

  11. Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Jan

    Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.

  12. Simulators help improve student confidence to acquire skills in urology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Díez, M C; Díez, N; Merino, I; Velis, J M; Tienza, A; Robles-García, J E

    2014-01-01

    To know the level of confidence of fifth year medical students in order to perform maneuvers in bladder catheterization and rectal examination before and after training with simulators. To be able to assess student satisfaction regarding the use of the simulation as a learning method. The study was conducted in the Simulation Center of the Faculty of Medicine. A total of 173 students who completed a practical workshop on the subject of Urology participated. The students were asked to answer anonymous questionnaires on their level of confidence in performing a bladder catheterization and rectal examination before and after the workshop as well as their satisfaction in using the simulation as a training tool. The workshops were organized using groups of 10 students. A teacher or a resident in that area of expertise supervised each student individually, resolving their doubts and teaching them the proper technique. All the evaluations made on the different abilities were significantly higher after training (P<.001). Significant differences were found in the confidence level between men and women before the training regarding male urethral catheterization maneuvers and recognition of normal or pathological prostate, The confidence level was lower in women (P<.05). These differences disappeared after training. The level of overall satisfaction with the workshop was high, going from 4.47 ± 0.9 to a maximum score of 5. Simulation is a training method that helps improve the confidence of the medical student in performing a bladder catheterization and digital rectal examination. Copyright © 2013 AEU. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  13. The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

    2009-01-01

    Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new longitu

  14. The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

    2009-01-01

    Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new

  15. Trust, confidence, procedural fairness, outcome fairness, moral conviction, and the acceptance of GM field experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegrist, Michael; Connor, Melanie; Keller, Carmen

    2012-08-01

    In 2005, Swiss citizens endorsed a moratorium on gene technology, resulting in the prohibition of the commercial cultivation of genetically modified crops and the growth of genetically modified animals until 2013. However, scientific research was not affected by this moratorium, and in 2008, GMO field experiments were conducted that allowed us to examine the factors that influence their acceptance by the public. In this study, trust and confidence items were analyzed using principal component analysis. The analysis revealed the following three factors: "economy/health and environment" (value similarity based trust), "trust and honesty of industry and scientists" (value similarity based trust), and "competence" (confidence). The results of a regression analysis showed that all the three factors significantly influenced the acceptance of GM field experiments. Furthermore, risk communication scholars have suggested that fairness also plays an important role in the acceptance of environmental hazards. We, therefore, included measures for outcome fairness and procedural fairness in our model. However, the impact of fairness may be moderated by moral conviction. That is, fairness may be significant for people for whom GMO is not an important issue, but not for people for whom GMO is an important issue. The regression analysis showed that, in addition to the trust and confidence factors, moral conviction, outcome fairness, and procedural fairness were significant predictors. The results suggest that the influence of procedural fairness is even stronger for persons having high moral convictions compared with persons having low moral convictions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Rare attributes in finite universe: Hypotheses testing specification and exact randomized upper confidence bounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, T.

    1993-03-01

    When attributes are rare and few or none are observed in the selected sample from a finite universe, sampling statisticians are increasingly being challenged to use whatever methods are available to declare with high probability or confidence that the universe is near or completely attribute-free. This is especially true when the attribute is undesirable. Approximations such as those based on normal theory are frequently inadequate with rare attributes. For simple random sampling without replacement, an appropriate probability distribution for statistical inference is the hypergeometric distribution. But even with the hypergeometric distribution, the investigator is limited from making claims of attribute-free with high confidence unless the sample size is quite large using nonrandomized techniques. In the hypergeometric setting with rare attributes, exact randomized tests of hypothesis a,re investigated to determine the effect on power of how one specifies the null hypothesis. In particular, specifying the null hypothesis as zero attributes does not always yield maximum possible power. We also consider the hypothesis specification question under complex sampling designs including stratified random sampling and two-stage cluster sampling (one case involves random selection at first stage and another case involves probability proportional to size without replacement selection at first stage). Also under simple random sampling, this article defines and presents a simple algorithm for the construction of exact ``randomized`` upper confidence bounds which permit one to possibly report tighter bounds than those exact bounds obtained using ``nonrandomized`` methods.

  17. Rare attributes in finite universe: Hypotheses testing specification and exact randomized upper confidence bounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, T.

    1993-03-01

    When attributes are rare and few or none are observed in the selected sample from a finite universe, sampling statisticians are increasingly being challenged to use whatever methods are available to declare with high probability or confidence that the universe is near or completely attribute-free. This is especially true when the attribute is undesirable. Approximations such as those based on normal theory are frequently inadequate with rare attributes. For simple random sampling without replacement, an appropriate probability distribution for statistical inference is the hypergeometric distribution. But even with the hypergeometric distribution, the investigator is limited from making claims of attribute-free with high confidence unless the sample size is quite large using nonrandomized techniques. In the hypergeometric setting with rare attributes, exact randomized tests of hypothesis a,re investigated to determine the effect on power of how one specifies the null hypothesis. In particular, specifying the null hypothesis as zero attributes does not always yield maximum possible power. We also consider the hypothesis specification question under complex sampling designs including stratified random sampling and two-stage cluster sampling (one case involves random selection at first stage and another case involves probability proportional to size without replacement selection at first stage). Also under simple random sampling, this article defines and presents a simple algorithm for the construction of exact randomized'' upper confidence bounds which permit one to possibly report tighter bounds than those exact bounds obtained using nonrandomized'' methods.

  18. Network Based High Speed Product Innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindgren, Peter

    In the first decade of the 21st century, New Product Development has undergone major changes in the way NPD is managed and organised. This is due to changes in technology, market demands, and in the competencies of companies. As a result NPD organised in different forms of networks is predicted...... to be of ever-increasing importance to many different kinds of companies. This happens at the same times as the share of new products of total turnover and earnings is increasing at unprecedented speed in many firms and industries. The latter results in the need for very fast innovation and product development...... - a need that can almost only be resolved by organising NPD in some form of network configuration. The work of Peter Lindgren is on several aspects of network based high speed product innovation and contributes to a descriptive understanding of this phenomenon as well as with normative theory on how NPD...

  19. Highly explosive nanosilicon-based composite materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clement, D.; Diener, J.; Gross, E.; Kuenzner, N.; Kovalev, D. [Technical University of Munich, Physics Department, James-Franck-Str., 85747 Garching (Germany); Timoshenko, V.Yu. [Moscow State M.V. Lomonosov University, Physics Department, 119899 Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2005-06-01

    We present a highly explosive binary system based on porous silicon layers with their pores filled with solid oxidizers. The porous layers are produced by a standard electrochemical etching process and exhibit properties that are different from other energetic materials. Its production is completely compatible with the standard silicon technology and full bulk silicon wafers can be processed and therefore a large number of explosive elements can be produced simultaneously. The application-relevant parameters: the efficiency and the long-term stability of various porous silicon/oxidizer systems have been studied in details. Structural properties of porous silicon, its surface termination, the atomic ratio of silicon to oxygen and the chosen oxidizers were optimized to achieve the highest efficiency of the explosive reaction. This explosive system reveals various possible applications in different industrial fields, e.g. as a novel, very fast airbag igniter. (copyright 2005 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  20. A Simultaneous Confidence Corridor for Varying Coefficient Regression with Sparse Functional Data

    OpenAIRE

    Gu, Lijie; Li WANG; Härdle, Wolfgang Karl; Yang, Lijian

    2014-01-01

    We consider a varying coefficient regression model for sparse functional data, with time varying response variable depending linearly on some time independent covariates with coefficients as functions of time dependent covariates. Based on spline smoothing, we propose data driven simultaneous confidence corridors for the coefficient functions with asymptotically correct confidence level. Such confidence corridors are useful benchmarks for statistical inference on the global shapes of coeffici...

  1. ‘HeART of Stroke (HoS)’, a community-based Arts for Health group intervention to support self-confidence and psychological well-being following a stroke: protocol for a randomised controlled feasibility study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis-Hill, Caroline; Gracey, Fergus; Thomas, Sarah; Lamont-Robinson, Catherine; Thomas, Peter W; Marques, Elsa M R; Grant, Mary; Nunn, Samantha; Cant, Robin P I; Galvin, Kathleen T; Reynolds, Frances; Jenkinson, Damian F

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Over 152 000 people in the UK have strokes annually and a third experience residual disability. Low mood also affects a third of stroke survivors; yet psychological support is poor. While Arts for Health interventions have been shown to improve well-being in people with mild-to-moderate depression post-stroke, their role in helping people regain sense of self, well-being and confidence has yet to be evaluated. The main aim of this study is to explore the feasibility of conducting a pragmatic multicentre randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an Arts for Health group intervention (‘HeART of Stroke’ (HoS)) for stroke survivors. HoS is a 10-session artist-facilitated group intervention held in the community over 14 weeks. It offers a non-judgemental, supportive environment for people to explore sense of self, potentially enhancing well-being and confidence. Methods and analysis Sixty-four people, up to 2 years post-stroke, recruited via secondary care research staff or community stroke/rehabilitation teams in two UK centres will be randomised to either HoS plus usual care or usual care only. Self-reported outcomes, measured at baseline and approximately 5 months postrandomisation, will include stroke-related, well-being, mood, self-esteem, quality of life and process measures. Analyses will focus on estimating key feasibility parameters (eg, rates of recruitment, retention, intervention attendance). We will develop outcome and resource use data collection methods to inform an effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analysis in the future trial. Interviews, with a sample of participants, will explore the acceptability of the intervention and study processes, as well as experiences of the HoS group. Ethics and dissemination National Health Service (NHS), Research and Development and University ethical approvals have been obtained. Two peer-reviewed journal publications are planned plus one service user led

  2. What is your savings personality? The 1998 Retirement Confidence Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakoboski, P; Ostuw, P; Hicks, J

    1998-08-01

    This Issue Brief presents the findings of the 1998 Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS). The survey tracks Americans' retirement planning and saving behavior and their confidence regarding various aspects of their retirement. It also categorizes workers and retirees into six distinct groups, based on their very different views on retirement, retirement planning, and saving. The six personality types identified in the RCS are Deniers (10 percent of the population), Strugglers (9 percent), Impulsives (20 percent), Cautious Savers (21 percent), Planners (23 percent), and Retiring Savers (17 percent). The survey shows that working Americans have become more focused on retirement; 45 percent have tried to determine how much they need to save before they retire, up from 32 percent in 1996. Americans' growing attention to their retirement has not increased their retirement income confidence. Since 1993, the portion of working Americans who are very confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably throughout retirement has consistently ranged from 20 percent to 25 percent. Sixty-three percent of Americans have begun to save for retirement. Fifty-five percent of those not saving for retirement say it is reasonably possible for them to save $20 per week (over $1,000 per year). In addition, 57 percent of workers who have begun to save say that it is reasonably possible for them to save an additional $20 per week. The findings demonstrate the continuing need for broad-based educational efforts designed to make retirement savings a priority for individuals. The good news is the evidence that education can have a real impact at the individual level. For the first time the 1998 RCS examined retirement planning, saving, and attitudes across ethnic groups (African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, Asian-Americans, and whites). African-Americans are the least confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement. African-Americans and Hispanic

  3. Effects of the Emergency Trauma Training Course on the confidence of final-year medical students dealing with trauma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hsing-Lin; Chen, Chao-Wen; Lee, Wei-Che; Kuo, Liang-Chi; Cheng, Yuan-Chia; Lin, Yen-Ko; Lin, Jiun-Nong; Chan, Hon-Man

    2009-01-01

    Trauma is an important issue that has been neglected in the training of medical students. This study evaluated the effects of the Emergency Trauma Training Course (ETTC), after completion of standard medical training, on seventh-year medical students. The ETTC was designed in Taiwan by the Taiwan Society of Emergency Medicine to train physicians and registered nurses who care for trauma patients in the emergency department (ED). We implemented the course for our medical students' internship. One hundred and fifty-one participants were divided into three groups: Group A included 36 medical students before they entered their internship in hospital; Group B included 41 medical students who had received 6 months of internship training in hospital; and Group C included 74 ED nurses. Group C was used to test Cronbach's alpha coefficient of the questionnaire. After the training course, the participants had a final examination and filled out a questionnaire about the training course and their levels of self-confidence. There were no differences in scores between the medical students in Groups A and B (p = 0.064). Using repeated measures analysis of variance, we found that confidence before training was low, with no difference between Groups A and B. Confidence improved after training, but there was still no significant difference between the groups (p = 0.875). However, there were significant differences between confidence levels before and after the training course (p confidence, the confidence of final year medical students after completion of their training was improved by the ETTC. This indicates that the ETTC could increase the confidence of participants. This is the first evaluation of the implementation of the ETTC for final-year medical students in Taiwan. Based on our results, we highly recommend that this training course be taught to final-year medical students before they practice in hospital.

  4. False memories and memory confidence in borderline patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Lisa; Wingenfeld, Katja; Spitzer, Carsten; Nagel, Matthias; Moritz, Steffen

    2013-12-01

    Mixed results have been obtained regarding memory in patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Prior reports and anecdotal evidence suggests that patients with BPD are prone to false memories but this assumption has to been put to firm empirical test, yet. Memory accuracy and confidence was assessed in 20 BPD patients and 22 healthy controls using a visual variant of the false memory (Deese-Roediger-McDermott) paradigm which involved a negative and a positive-valenced picture. Groups did not differ regarding veridical item recognition. Importantly, patients did not display more false memories than controls. At trend level, borderline patients rated more items as new with high confidence compared to healthy controls. The results tentatively suggest that borderline patients show uncompromised visual memory functions and display no increased susceptibility for distorted memories. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Daniel B

    2007-02-01

    Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.

  6. Closed-form fiducial confidence intervals for some functions of independent binomial parameters with comparisons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamoorthy, K; Lee, Meesook; Zhang, Dan

    2017-02-01

    Approximate closed-form confidence intervals (CIs) for estimating the difference, relative risk, odds ratio, and linear combination of proportions are proposed. These CIs are developed using the fiducial approach and the modified normal-based approximation to the percentiles of a linear combination of independent random variables. These confidence intervals are easy to calculate as the computation requires only the percentiles of beta distributions. The proposed confidence intervals are compared with the popular score confidence intervals with respect to coverage probabilities and expected widths. Comparison studies indicate that the proposed confidence intervals are comparable with the corresponding score confidence intervals, and better in some cases, for all the problems considered. The methods are illustrated using several examples.

  7. Cognitive-behavioural therapy-based intervention to reduce fear of falling in older people: therapy development and randomised controlled trial - the Strategies for Increasing Independence, Confidence and Energy (STRIDE) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, Steve W; Bamford, Claire; Deary, Vincent; Finch, Tracy L; Gray, Jo; MacDonald, Claire; McMeekin, Peter; Sabin, Neil J; Steen, I Nick; Whitney, Sue L; McColl, Elaine M

    2016-07-01

    Falls cause fear, anxiety and loss of confidence, resulting in activity avoidance, social isolation and increasing frailty. The umbrella term for these problems is 'fear of falling', seen in up to 85% of older adults who fall. Evidence of effectiveness of physical and psychological interventions is limited, with no previous studies examining the role of an individually delivered cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) approach. Primary objective To develop and then determine the effectiveness of a new CBT intervention (CBTi) delivered by health-care assistants (HCAs) plus usual care compared with usual care alone in reducing fear of falling. Secondary objectives To measure the impact of the intervention on falls, injuries, functional abilities, anxiety/depression, quality of life, social participation and loneliness; investigate the acceptability of the intervention for patients, family members and professionals and factors that promote or inhibit its implementation; and measure the costs and benefits of the intervention. Phase I CBTi development. Phase II Parallel-group patient randomised controlled trial (RCT) of the new CBTi plus usual care compared with usual care alone. Multidisciplinary falls services. Consecutive community-dwelling older adults, both sexes, aged ≥ 60 years, with excessive or undue fear of falling per Falls Efficacy Scale-International (FES-I) score of > 23. Phase I Development of the CBTi. The CBTi was developed following patient interviews and taught to HCAs to maximise the potential for uptake and generalisability to a UK NHS setting. Phase II RCT. The CBTi was delivered by HCAs weekly for 8 weeks, with a 6-month booster session plus usual care. These were assessed at baseline, 8 weeks, 6 months and 12 months. Primary outcome measure Fear of falling measured by change in FES-I scores at 12 months. Secondary outcome measures These comprised falls, injuries, anxiety/depression [Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS

  8. Establishment of Forklift Idling Vibration Comfort Evaluation Based on Confidence Interval%基于置信区间建立叉车怠速振动舒适性评价指标

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张少波; 曾庆懿; 蓝秋玲

    2015-01-01

    The idling vibration comfort of forklift seriously affects the customer's purchase desire, yet there is no specific test method and evaluation criterion; in this paper, the focus and the lack of the existing evaluation criteria for vibration comfort are listed, the characteristics of the truck idling vibration signal is analyzed, and the testing methods for idling vibration are regulated.Under the uniform test methods, a lot of idling vibration test data and the evaluation of the customers are collected, then the relationship between the customer evaluation and test data is found with the use of confidence intervals MINITAB tools.This relationship can be used in forklift development, quality inspection and other services in the after-market.%叉车怠速振动舒适性严重地影响客户的购机愿望,目前还没有专门的测试方法和评价标准;列举了现有振动舒适度评价标准的侧重点与不足,分析了叉车怠速振动信号的特征,并规范了怠速振动测试方法。在统一的测试方法下,收集了大量的怠速振动测试数据以及客户的评价,利用 MINITAB 中置信区间工具,找到了客户评价与测试数据之间的关系。此关系可以应用在叉车研发、质量检验和后市场等业务中。

  9. A novel nonparametric confidence interval for differences of proportions for correlated binary data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Chongyang; Cao, Yingshu; Zhou, Lizhi; Tan, Ming T; Chen, Pingyan

    2016-11-16

    Various confidence interval estimators have been developed for differences in proportions resulted from correlated binary data. However, the width of the mostly recommended Tango's score confidence interval tends to be wide, and the computing burden of exact methods recommended for small-sample data is intensive. The recently proposed rank-based nonparametric method by treating proportion as special areas under receiver operating characteristic provided a new way to construct the confidence interval for proportion difference on paired data, while the complex computation limits its application in practice. In this article, we develop a new nonparametric method utilizing the U-statistics approach for comparing two or more correlated areas under receiver operating characteristics. The new confidence interval has a simple analytic form with a new estimate of the degrees of freedom of n - 1. It demonstrates good coverage properties and has shorter confidence interval widths than that of Tango. This new confidence interval with the new estimate of degrees of freedom also leads to coverage probabilities that are an improvement on the rank-based nonparametric confidence interval. Comparing with the approximate exact unconditional method, the nonparametric confidence interval demonstrates good coverage properties even in small samples, and yet they are very easy to implement computationally. This nonparametric procedure is evaluated using simulation studies and illustrated with three real examples. The simplified nonparametric confidence interval is an appealing choice in practice for its ease of use and good performance. © The Author(s) 2016.

  10. Mediated Sources of Public Confidence: Lazarsfeld and Merton Revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonson, Peter

    1999-01-01

    Contributes to scholarship on mass media's role in generating public confidence. Discusses the current crisis of confidence, confidence as "faith-together," varied routes by which media confer status, and ways both journalistic expose and public debate can generate cynicism and undercut public confidence. Sketches three types of civil…

  11. Modeling of a Robust Confidence Band for the Power Curve of a Wind Turbine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Wilmar; Méndez, Alfredo; Maldonado-Correa, Jorge L; Balleteros, Francisco

    2016-12-07

    Having an accurate model of the power curve of a wind turbine allows us to better monitor its operation and planning of storage capacity. Since wind speed and direction is of a highly stochastic nature, the forecasting of the power generated by the wind turbine is of the same nature as well. In this paper, a method for obtaining a robust confidence band containing the power curve of a wind turbine under test conditions is presented. Here, the confidence band is bound by two curves which are estimated using parametric statistical inference techniques. However, the observations that are used for carrying out the statistical analysis are obtained by using the binning method, and in each bin, the outliers are eliminated by using a censorship process based on robust statistical techniques. Then, the observations that are not outliers are divided into observation sets. Finally, both the power curve of the wind turbine and the two curves that define the robust confidence band are estimated using each of the previously mentioned observation sets.

  12. A Comparative Investigation of Confidence Intervals for IndependentVariables in Linear Regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudgeon, Paul

    2016-01-01

    In linear regression, the most appropriate standardized effect size for individual independent variables having an arbitrary metric remains open to debate, despite researchers typically reporting a standardized regression coefficient. Alternative standardized measures include the semipartial correlation, the improvement in the squared multiple correlation, and the squared partial correlation. No arguments based on either theoretical or statistical grounds for preferring one of these standardized measures have been mounted in the literature. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, the performance of interval estimators for these effect-size measures was compared in a 5-way factorial design. Formal statistical design methods assessed both the accuracy and robustness of the four interval estimators. The coverage probability of a large-sample confidence interval for the semipartial correlation coefficient derived from Aloe and Becker was highly accurate and robust in 98% of instances. It was better in small samples than the Yuan-Chan large-sample confidence interval for a standardized regression coefficient. It was also consistently better than both a bootstrap confidence interval for the improvement in the squared multiple correlation and a noncentral interval for the squared partial correlation.

  13. Modeling of a Robust Confidence Band for the Power Curve of a Wind Turbine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Wilmar; Méndez, Alfredo; Maldonado-Correa, Jorge L.; Balleteros, Francisco

    2016-01-01

    Having an accurate model of the power curve of a wind turbine allows us to better monitor its operation and planning of storage capacity. Since wind speed and direction is of a highly stochastic nature, the forecasting of the power generated by the wind turbine is of the same nature as well. In this paper, a method for obtaining a robust confidence band containing the power curve of a wind turbine under test conditions is presented. Here, the confidence band is bound by two curves which are estimated using parametric statistical inference techniques. However, the observations that are used for carrying out the statistical analysis are obtained by using the binning method, and in each bin, the outliers are eliminated by using a censorship process based on robust statistical techniques. Then, the observations that are not outliers are divided into observation sets. Finally, both the power curve of the wind turbine and the two curves that define the robust confidence band are estimated using each of the previously mentioned observation sets. PMID:27941604

  14. Rules for confidence intervals of permeability coefficients for water flow in over-broken rock mass

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Weiqun; Fei Xiaodong; Fang Jingnian

    2012-01-01

    Based on the steady-state seepage method,we used the Mechanical Testing and Simulation 815.02 System and a self-designed seepage instrument for over-broken stone to measure seepage properties of water flows in three types of crushed rock samples.Three methods of confidence interval in describing permeability coefficients are presented:the secure interval,the calculated interval and the systemic interval.The lower bound of the secure interval can be applied to water-inrush and the upper bound can solve the problem of connectivity.For the calculated interval,as the axial pressure increases,the length of confidence interval is shortened and the upper and lower bounds are reduced.For the systemic interval,the length of its confidence interval,as well as the upper and lower bounds,clearly vary under low axial pressure but are fairly similar under high axial pressure.These three methods provide useful information and references for analyzing the permeability coefficient of over-broken rock.

  15. Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 6. Excess Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorana BOLBOACĂ

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available We present the problem of the confidence interval estimation for excess risk (Y/n-X/m fraction, a parameter which allows evaluating of the specificity of an association between predisposing or causal factors and disease in medical studies. The parameter is computes based on 2x2 contingency table and qualitative variables. The aim of this paper is to introduce four new methods of computing confidence intervals for excess risk called DAC, DAs, DAsC, DBinomial, and DBinomialC and to compare theirs performance with the asymptotic method called here DWald.In order to assess the methods, we use the PHP programming language and a PHP program was creates. The performance of each method for different sample sizes and different values of binomial variables were assess using a set of criterions. First, the upper and lower boundaries for a given X, Y and a specified sample size for choused methods were compute. Second, were assessed the average and standard deviation of the experimental errors, and the deviation relative to imposed significance level α = 5%. Four methods were assessed on random numbers for binomial variables and for sample sizes from 4 to 1000 domain.The experiments show that the DAC methods obtain performances in confidence intervals estimation for excess risk.

  16. Written Language Disorders: Speech-Language Pathologists' Training, Knowledge, and Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blood, Gordon W.; Mamett, Callie; Gordon, Rebecca; Blood, Ingrid M.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: This study examined speech-language pathologists' (SLPs') perceptions of their (a) educational and clinical training in evaluating and treating written language disorders, (b) knowledge bases in this area, (c) sources of knowledge about written language disorders, (d) confidence levels, and (e) predictors of confidence in working with…

  17. Mathematics Confidence, Grade-Level Choice, Gender, and Age in Preservice Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Lesley Knoth

    2012-01-01

    Problem: The purpose of the study was to determine whether teachers' mathematics confidence influenced their choice of grade level. The study also examined whether there was a difference in teachers' mathematics confidence based on their age or gender. Method: A 6-item Mathematics Survey was distributed to 83 single-and multiple-subject preservice…

  18. Confidence intervals for proportion difference from two independent partially validated series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Shi-Fang; Poon, Wai-Yin; Tang, Man-Lai

    2016-10-01

    Partially validated series are common when a gold-standard test is too expensive to be applied to all subjects, and hence a fallible device is used accordingly to measure the presence of a characteristic of interest. In this article, confidence interval construction for proportion difference between two independent partially validated series is studied. Ten confidence intervals based on the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER) are proposed, with each using the confidence limits for the two independent binomial proportions obtained by the asymptotic, Logit-transformation, Agresti-Coull and Bayesian methods. The performances of the proposed confidence intervals and three likelihood-based intervals available in the literature are compared with respect to the empirical coverage probability, confidence width and ratio of mesial non-coverage to non-coverage probability. Our empirical results show that (1) all confidence intervals exhibit good performance in large samples; (2) confidence intervals based on MOVER combining the confidence limits for binomial proportions based on Wilson, Agresti-Coull, Logit-transformation, Bayesian (with three priors) methods perform satisfactorily from small to large samples, and hence can be recommended for practical applications. Two real data sets are analysed to illustrate the proposed methods. © The Author(s) 2014.

  19. Mathematics Confidence, Grade-Level Choice, Gender, and Age in Preservice Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Lesley Knoth

    2012-01-01

    Problem: The purpose of the study was to determine whether teachers' mathematics confidence influenced their choice of grade level. The study also examined whether there was a difference in teachers' mathematics confidence based on their age or gender. Method: A 6-item Mathematics Survey was distributed to 83 single-and multiple-subject preservice…

  20. Confidence intervals for annual wind power production******

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bensoussan Alain

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Wind power is an intermittent resource due to wind speed intermittency. However wind speed can be described as a stochastic process with short memory. This allows us to derive a central limit theorem for the annual or pluri-annual wind power production and then get quantiles of the wind power production for one, ten or twenty years future periods. On the one hand, the interquantile spread offers a measurement of the intrinsic uncertainties of wind power production. On the other hand, different quantiles with different periods of time are used by financial institutions to quantify the financial risk of the wind turbine. Our method is then applied to real datasets corresponding to a French wind turbine. Since confidence intervals can be enhanced by taking into account seasonality, we present some tools for change point analysis on wind series.

  1. Confidence crisis of results in biomechanics research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudson, Duane

    2017-11-01

    Many biomechanics studies have small sample sizes and incorrect statistical analyses, so reporting of inaccurate inferences and inflated magnitude of effects are common in the field. This review examines these issues in biomechanics research and summarises potential solutions from research in other fields to increase the confidence in the experimental effects reported in biomechanics. Authors, reviewers and editors of biomechanics research reports are encouraged to improve sample sizes and the resulting statistical power, improve reporting transparency, improve the rigour of statistical analyses used, and increase the acceptance of replication studies to improve the validity of inferences from data in biomechanics research. The application of sports biomechanics research results would also improve if a larger percentage of unbiased effects and their uncertainty were reported in the literature.

  2. Disparities in Confidence to Manage Chronic Diseases in Men

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith Elder

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Chronic diseases are highly prevalent among men in the United States and chronic disease management is problematic for men, particularly for racial and ethnic minority men. Objectives: This study examined the association between health information seeking and confidence to manage chronic diseases among men. Methods: Study data were drawn from the 2007 Health Tracking Household Survey and analyzed using multiple binary logistic regressions. The analytical sample included 2,653 men, 18 years and older with a chronic illness. Results: Health information seeking was not associated with confidence to manage chronic illnesses. African-American men had lower odds than White men to agree to take actions to prevent symptoms with their health. Hispanic men had lower odds than White men to agree to tell a doctor concerns they have, even when not asked. Conclusions: Racial and ethnic minority men with a chronic condition appear to be less confident to manage their health compared to white men. Chronic disease management needs greater exploration to understand the best ways to help racial and ethnic minority men successfully manage their chronic condition.

  3. Confidence sets for optimal factor levels of a response surface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Fang; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Han, Yang

    2016-12-01

    Construction of confidence sets for the optimal factor levels is an important topic in response surfaces methodology. In Wan et al. (2015), an exact (1-α) confidence set has been provided for a maximum or minimum point (i.e., an optimal factor level) of a univariate polynomial function in a given interval. In this article, the method has been extended to construct an exact (1-α) confidence set for the optimal factor levels of response surfaces. The construction method is readily applied to many parametric and semiparametric regression models involving a quadratic function. A conservative confidence set has been provided as an intermediate step in the construction of the exact confidence set. Two examples are given to illustrate the application of the confidence sets. The comparison between confidence sets indicates that our exact confidence set is better than the only other confidence set available in the statistical literature that guarantees the (1-α) confidence level. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  4. The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey: confidence stabilizing, but preparations continue to erode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2010-03-01

    20TH ANNUAL RCS: The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey-the 20th annual wave of this survey-finds that the record-low confidence levels measured during the past two years of economic decline appear to have bottomed out. The percentage of workers veryconfident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement has stabilized at 16 percent, which is statistically equivalent to the 20-year low of 13 percent measured in 2009 (Fig. 1, pg. 7). Retiree confidence about having a financially secure retirement has also stabilized, with 19 percent saying now they are very confident (statistically equivalent to the 20 percent measured in 2009) (Fig. 2, pg. 8). Worker confidence about paying for basic expenses in retirement has rebounded slightly, with 29 percent now saying they are very confident about having enough money to pay for basic expenses during retirement (up from 25 percent in 2009, but still down from 34 percent in 2008) (Fig. 3, pg. 9). PREPARATIONS STILL ERODING: Fewer workers report that they and/or their spouse have saved for retirement (69 percent, down from 75 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to 72 percent in 2008) (Fig. 11, page 14). Moreover, fewer workers say that they and/or their spouse are currently saving for retirement (60 percent, down from 65 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to percentages measured in other years) (Fig. 13, pg. 15). MORE PEOPLE HAVE NO SAVINGS AT ALL: An increased percentage of workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. Among RCS workers providing this type of information, 27 percent say they have less than $1,000 in savings (up from 20 percent in 2009). In total, more than half of workers (54 percent) report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000 (Fig. 14, pg. 16). CLUELESS ABOUT SAVINGS GOALS: Many workers continue to be unaware of how much they need to save for

  5. Multidimensional confidence regions for pareto, exponential, and normal distributions

    OpenAIRE

    Lennartz, Jens

    2017-01-01

    The two classical approaches in estimation theory are point estimation and confidence interval estimation. A confidence interval contains the unknown parameter of interest of a parametric family of distributions with a probability greater than or equal to a certain value, called confidence coefficient or confidence level. If we deal with multiparametric families of distributions, we are interested in simultaneously estimating the parameter vector by determining a multidimensional confidence r...

  6. Bootstrap method-based estimation on the confidence interval for additive interaction in cohort studies%队列研究资料相加交互作用可信区间的Bootstrap法估计

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    潘金仁; 陈坤

    2010-01-01

    交互作用评估是流行病学数据分析的重要环节,病因学研究中得到广泛应用的指数模型如logistic回归或Cox比例风险模型,常将危险因素的乘积项纳入模型,其乘积项系数反映了因素间的相乘交互作用,而在公共卫生方面交互作用分析应基于加法模型才更合适.文中根据Rothman提出的评估相加交互作用的指标,通过一个队列研究实例拟合Cox比例风险模型,应用RR值计算两因素的相加交互作用指标,并利用内置Bootstrap功能的S-Plus软件,较为方便地得到Bootstrap法估计的可信区间,避免队列研究资料应用OR值计算导致的估值偏差,且有更高的估计精度.相加和相乘交互作用分析的组合模式相当复杂,当两者冲突时宜选择加法模型.%Interaction assessment is an important step in epidemiological analysis. When etiological study is carried out, the logarithmic models such as logistic model or Cox proportional hazard model are commonly used to estimate the independent effects of the risk factors. However,estimating interaction between risk factors by the regression coefficient of the product term is on multiplicative scale, and for public-health purposes, it is supposed to be on additive scale or departure from additivity. This paper illustrates with a example of cohort study by fitting Cox proportional hazard model to estimate three measures for additive interaction which presented by Rothman.Adopting the S-Plus application with a built-in Bootstrap function, it is convenient to estimate the confidence interval for additive interaction. Furthermore, this method can avoid the exaggerated estimation by using ORs in a cohort study to gain better precision. When using the complex combination models between additive interaction and multiplicative interaction, it is reasonable to choose the former one when the result is inconsistent.

  7. Consumer Confidence in the Safety of Food and Newspaper Coverage of Food Safety Issues: A Longitudinal Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Renes, R.J.; Frewer, L.J.

    2010-01-01

    This study develops a longitudinal perspective on consumer confidence in the safety of food to explore if, how, and why consumer confidence changes over time. In the first study, a theory-based monitoring instrument for consumer confidence in the safety of food was developed and validated. The monit

  8. A new thermographic NDT for condition monitoring of electrical components using ANN with confidence level analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huda, A S N; Taib, S; Ghazali, K H; Jadin, M S

    2014-05-01

    Infrared thermography technology is one of the most effective non-destructive testing techniques for predictive faults diagnosis of electrical components. Faults in electrical system show overheating of components which is a common indicator of poor connection, overloading, load imbalance or any defect. Thermographic inspection is employed for finding such heat related problems before eventual failure of the system. However, an automatic diagnostic system based on artificial neural network reduces operating time, human efforts and also increases the reliability of system. In the present study, statistical features and artificial neural network (ANN) with confidence level analysis are utilized for inspection of electrical components and their thermal conditions are classified into two classes namely normal and overheated. All the features extracted from images do not produce good performance. Features having low performance reduce the diagnostic performance. The study reveals the performance of each feature individually for selecting the suitable feature set. In order to find the individual feature performance, each feature of thermal image was used as input for neural network and the classification of condition types were used as output target. The multilayered perceptron network using Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm was used as classifier. The performances were determined in terms of percentage of accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, false positive and false negative. After selecting the suitable features, the study introduces the intelligent diagnosis system using suitable features as inputs of neural network. Finally, confidence percentage and confidence level were used to find out the strength of the network outputs for condition monitoring. The experimental result shows that multilayered perceptron network produced 79.4% of testing accuracy with 43.60%, 12.60%, 21.40, 9.20% and 13.40% highest, high, moderate, low and lowest confidence level respectively.

  9. Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Rego, Henio H. A.; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2017-01-01

    Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index—both generated by our model—are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant. PMID:28231255

  10. Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Rego, Henio H A; Silva, Jonathas N; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H Eugene

    2017-01-01

    Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index-both generated by our model-are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant.

  11. Unbounded evidence accumulation characterizes subjective visual vertical (SVV) forced-choice perceptual choice and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Koeun; Wang, Wei; Merfeld, Daniel M

    2017-07-26

    Humans can subjectively yet quantitatively assess choice confidence based on perceptual precision even when a perceptual decision is made without an immediate reward or feedback. However, surprisingly little is known about choice confidence. Here we investigate the dynamics of choice confidence by merging two parallel conceptual frameworks of decision-making, signal detection theory and sequential analyses (i.e., drift diffusion modeling). Specifically, in order to capture end-point statistics of binary choice and confidence, we built on a previous study that defined choice confidence in terms of psychophysics derived from signal detection theory. At the same time, we augmented this mathematical model to include accumulator dynamics of a drift-diffusion model to characterize the time-dependency of the choice behaviors in a standard forced-choice paradigm in which stimulus duration is controlled by the operator. Human subjects performed a subjective visual vertical task, simultaneously reporting binary orientation choice and probabilistic confidence. Both binary choice and confidence experimental data displayed statistics and dynamics consistent with both signal detection theory and evidence accumulation, respectively. Specifically, the computational simulations showed that the unbounded evidence accumulator model fits the confidence data better than the classical bounded model, while bounded and unbounded models were indistinguishable for binary choice data. These results suggest that the brain can utilize mechanisms consistent with signal detection theory - especially when judging confidence without time pressure. Copyright © 2017, Journal of Neurophysiology.

  12. Balance Confidence Is Related to Features of Balance and Gait in Individuals with Chronic Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schinkel-Ivy, Alison; Wong, Jennifer S; Mansfield, Avril

    2017-02-01

    Reduced balance confidence is associated with impairments in features of balance and gait in individuals with subacute stroke. However, an understanding of these relationships in individuals at the chronic stage of stroke recovery is lacking. This study aimed to quantify the relationships between balance confidence and specific features of balance and gait in individuals with chronic stroke. Participants completed a balance confidence questionnaire and clinical balance assessment (quiet standing, walking, and reactive stepping) at 6 months postdischarge from inpatient stroke rehabilitation. Regression analyses were performed using balance confidence as a predictor variable, and quiet standing, walking, and reactive stepping outcome measures as the dependent variables. Walking velocity was positively correlated with balance confidence, whereas mediolateral center of pressure excursion (quiet standing) and double support time, step width variability, and step time variability (walking) were negatively correlated with balance confidence. This study provides insight into the relationships between balance confidence and balance and gait measures in individuals with chronic stroke, suggesting that individuals with low balance confidence exhibited impaired control of quiet standing as well as walking characteristics associated with cautious gait strategies. Future work should identify the direction of these relationships to inform community-based stroke rehabilitation programs for individuals with chronic stroke, and determine the potential utility of incorporating interventions to improve balance confidence into these programs. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  13. Confidence intervals make a difference : Effects of showing confidence intervals on inferential reasoning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

    2012-01-01

    The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting result

  14. Inferring High-Confidence Human Protein-Protein Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Similarly, the top-ranked interaction between L-threonine dehydrogenase ( TDH ) and aminoacetone synthetase (alias of GCAT) catalyzes the conversion of L...acetyltransferase TDH 2 L-threonine dehydrogenase 2 577.4 11.0 1328.0 CXCL16 4 Inducible T cell co-stimulator CXCR6 4 Inducible T cell co-stimulator

  15. Fall 2014 SEI Research Review High Confidence Cyber Physical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-28

    FY11,FY12 LENS Collaborators • Prof. Marsha Chechik, Univ. of Toronto • Prof. Ed Clarke, CMU /CS • Prof. Lui Sha, UIUC • Prof. John Lehoczky... CMU /Stat • Prof. Raj Rajkumar, CMU /ECE • Prof. Anthony Rowe, CMU /ECE • Prof. Paul Scerri, CMU /RI • Prof. Natasha Sharygina, Univ. of Lugano • Prof

  16. Exhibitors: Full of Confidence Adequate Preparation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    From March 26th,three most important trade fairs for Chinese textile industry opened successively inBeijing.Several exhibitors showed their confidence and preparation to TA Weekly. Bosideng:CHIC is an everlasting marketing chance"We’ll definitely participate in CHIC 2009,with even moreinvestment."Gao Dekang,the President of Bosideng Co.,Ltd said,"Bosideng is going to make full use of this trade fair for furtherdevelopment."According to the organizer of CHIC 2009,Bosidengreserved 1000 square meters for its show."CHIC witnessed the blooming development of Chinese clothingindustry for the last ten years.CHIC has made a progress to catch upwith the world trend as well as in the social influence.It has becomethe pioneer of fashion and is regarded as the releasing center,innovation center and brand center."As a long-term participant,Bosideng has the right to say these words.It is in this fair,Bosideng

  17. The Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and Identification Accuracy: A New Synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wixted, John T; Wells, Gary L

    2017-05-01

    The U.S. legal system increasingly accepts the idea that the confidence expressed by an eyewitness who identified a suspect from a lineup provides little information as to the accuracy of that identification. There was a time when this pessimistic assessment was entirely reasonable because of the questionable eyewitness-identification procedures that police commonly employed. However, after more than 30 years of eyewitness-identification research, our understanding of how to properly conduct a lineup has evolved considerably, and the time seems ripe to ask how eyewitness confidence informs accuracy under more pristine testing conditions (e.g., initial, uncontaminated memory tests using fair lineups, with no lineup administrator influence, and with an immediate confidence statement). Under those conditions, mock-crime studies and police department field studies have consistently shown that, for adults, (a) confidence and accuracy are strongly related and (b) high-confidence suspect identifications are remarkably accurate. However, when certain non-pristine testing conditions prevail (e.g., when unfair lineups are used), the accuracy of even a high-confidence suspect ID is seriously compromised. Unfortunately, some jurisdictions have not yet made reforms that would create pristine testing conditions and, hence, our conclusions about the reliability of high-confidence identifications cannot yet be applied to those jurisdictions. However, understanding the information value of eyewitness confidence under pristine testing conditions can help the criminal justice system to simultaneously achieve both of its main objectives: to exonerate the innocent (by better appreciating that initial, low-confidence suspect identifications are error prone) and to convict the guilty (by better appreciating that initial, high-confidence suspect identifications are surprisingly accurate under proper testing conditions).

  18. Sources of sport confidence, imagery type and performance among competitive athletes: the mediating role of sports confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.

  19. PRODUCTION OF HIGH QUALITY LUBRICATING BASE OIL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    @@High VI lubricating oil is produced in hydrocracker through hydrocracking (HDC) and hydroisome-rization reactions. In order to effectively produce high VI component, such as iso-pafaffins and monocyclic naphtenes, it is important to load suitable HDC catalysts and operate them in the appropriate reaction conditions.   Nippon Mitsubishi Oil Corporation (NMOC) and its affiliate company, Nippon Mitsubishi Petroleum Refining Company (NMPRC) reported their original HDC catalysts four years ago in this Japan-China joint se-minar in Beijing[1]. NMOC and NMPRC operate their hydrocracker both in fuel oil production mode and in lubricating oil production mode. In lubricating oil production mode, high VI lubricating oil called VHDC are produced.   In this paper, at first, the advantages of high VI lubricating oil are described. And then it is announced that NMOC and NMPRC have developed a new generation of HDC catalyst with higher cracking activity, higher middle distillate selectivity and longer life than the other commercial HDC catalysts. In addition to those properties, the catalyst is able to yield high VI lubricating oil as well.

  20. Is simulation training effective in increasing podiatrists' confidence in foot ulcer management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    scores reflected the participant populations' high baseline knowledge and pre-requisite completion of web-based modules. Satisfaction, relevance and fidelity of all course elements were rated highly. Conclusions This pilot study suggests simulation training programs can improve participants' clinical confidence in the management of foot ulcers. The approach has the potential to enhance clinical training in diabetes-related foot complications and chronic wounds in general. PMID:21639935

  1. Monotonicity in the Sample Size of the Length of Classical Confidence Intervals

    CERN Document Server

    Kagan, Abram M

    2012-01-01

    It is proved that the average length of standard confidence intervals for parameters of gamma and normal distributions monotonically decrease with the sample size. The proofs are based on fine properties of the classical gamma function.

  2. Determining Frequentist Confidence Limits Using a Directed Parameter Space Search

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, Scott F.; Connolly, Andrew J.; Schneider, Jeff

    2014-10-01

    We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter space by intelligently targeting likelihood evaluations so as to quickly and accurately characterize the likelihood surface in both low- and high-likelihood regions. We compare our algorithm to Bayesian credible limits derived by the well-tested Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using both multi-modal toy likelihood functions and the seven yr Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe cosmic microwave background likelihood function. We find that our algorithm correctly identifies the location, general size, and general shape of high-likelihood regions in parameter space while being more robust against multi-modality than MCMC.

  3. An empirical method for establishing positional confidence intervals tailored for composite interval mapping of QTL.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Crossett

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Improved genetic resolution and availability of sequenced genomes have made positional cloning of moderate-effect QTL realistic in several systems, emphasizing the need for precise and accurate derivation of positional confidence intervals (CIs for QTL. Support interval (SI methods based on the shape of the QTL likelihood curve have proven adequate for standard interval mapping, but have not been shown to be appropriate for use with composite interval mapping (CIM, which is one of the most commonly used QTL mapping methods. RESULTS: Based on a non-parametric confidence interval (NPCI method designed for use with the Haley-Knott regression method for mapping QTL, a CIM-specific method (CIM-NPCI was developed to appropriately account for the selection of background markers during analysis of bootstrap-resampled data sets. Coverage probabilities and interval widths resulting from use of the NPCI, SI, and CIM-NPCI methods were compared in a series of simulations analyzed via CIM, wherein four genetic effects were simulated in chromosomal regions with distinct marker densities while heritability was fixed at 0.6 for a population of 200 isolines. CIM-NPCIs consistently capture the simulated QTL across these conditions while slightly narrower SIs and NPCIs fail at unacceptably high rates, especially in genomic regions where marker density is high, which is increasingly common for real studies. The effects of a known CIM bias toward locating QTL peaks at markers were also investigated for each marker density case. Evaluation of sub-simulations that varied according to the positions of simulated effects relative to the nearest markers showed that the CIM-NPCI method overcomes this bias, offering an explanation for the improved coverage probabilities when marker densities are high. CONCLUSIONS: Extensive simulation studies herein demonstrate that the QTL confidence interval methods typically used to positionally evaluate CIM results can be

  4. Alternative confidence measure for local matching stereo algorithms

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ndhlovu, T

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The authors present a confidence measure applied to individual disparity estimates in local matching stereo correspondence algorithms. It aims at identifying textureless areas, where most local matching algorithms fail. The confidence measure works...

  5. Mathematical Foundations for a Theory of Confidence Structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Michael Scott

    2012-10-01

    This paper introduces a new mathematical object: the confidence structure. A confidence structure represents inferential uncertainty in an unknown parameter by defining a belief function whose output is commensurate with Neyman-Pearson confidence. Confidence structures on a group of input variables can be propagated through a function to obtain a valid confidence structure on the output of that function. The theory of confidence structures is created by enhancing the extant theory of confidence distributions with the mathematical generality of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Mathematical proofs grounded in random set theory demonstrate the operative properties of confidence structures. The result is a new theory which achieves the holistic goals of Bayesian inference while maintaining the empirical rigor of frequentist inference.

  6. Assessing Residents' Confidence in the Context of Pharmacotherapy Competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakofsky, Jeffrey J; Garlow, Steven J; Haroon, Ebrahim; Hermida, Adriana P; Young, John Q; Dunlop, Boadie W

    2017-06-01

    We aimed to determine whether residents' confidence initiating medications increased with the number of times they prescribed individual medications and to quantify the relationship between prescription frequency and gains in confidence. From July 2011 to June 2014, PGY-3 residents completed a survey of confidence levels at their psychopharmacology clinic orientation and then again 12 months later. The Emory Healthcare electronic medical record was used to identify all medications prescribed by each resident during their 12-month rotation and the frequency of these prescriptions. Confidence in initiating treatment with all medicines/medication classes increased over the 12-month period. For three of the medication classes for which residents indicated they were least confident at orientation, the number of prescriptions written during the year was significantly associated with an increase in confidence. Measuring resident confidence is a relevant and achievable outcome and provides data for educators regarding the amount of experience needed to increase confidence.

  7. Mathematical Foundations for a Theory of Confidence Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Michael Scott

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces a new mathematical object: the confidence structure. A confidence structure represents inferential uncertainty in an unknown parameter by defining a belief function whose output is commensurate with Neyman-Pearson confidence. Confidence structures on a group of input variables can be propagated through a function to obtain a valid confidence structure on the output of that function. The theory of confidence structures is created by enhancing the extant theory of confidence distributions with the mathematical generality of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Mathematical proofs grounded in random set theory demonstrate the operative properties of confidence structures. The result is a new theory which achieves the holistic goals of Bayesian inference while maintaining the empirical rigor of frequentist inference. PMID:25190904

  8. On the Confidence Interval for the parameter of Poisson Distribution

    CERN Document Server

    Bityukov, S I; Taperechkina, V A

    2000-01-01

    In present paper the possibility of construction of continuous analogue of Poisson distribution with the search of bounds of confidence intervals for parameter of Poisson distribution is discussed and the results of numerical construction of confidence intervals are presented.

  9. Highly Mobile Triphenylene Based Organogel Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kotlewski, A.

    2009-01-01

    Organogels and liquid crystals are both well known classes of materials covering a broad spectrum of molecules, structures and morphologies. In this thesis characterization of novel triphenylene based organogels is described in connection with the mesomorphic liquid crystalline properties of the pur

  10. Generalized confidence interval plots using commands or dialogs

    OpenAIRE

    Roger Newson

    2005-01-01

    Confidence intervals may be presented as publication-ready tables or as presentation-ready plots. -eclplot- produces plots of estimates and confidence intervals. It inputs a dataset (or resultsset) with one observation per parameter and variables containing estimates, lower and upper confidence limits, and a fourth variable, against which the confidence intervals are plotted. This resultsset can be used for producing both plots and tables, and may be generated using a spreadsheet or using -st...

  11. Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments Peter H. Feiler Charles B. Weinstock John B. Goodenough...Design 8 2.3 Architecture Fault Modeling and Analysis with EMV2 8 2.4 Confidence Map Concepts and Notation 11 Overview of the Stepper-Motor System...Comparison of the SMS Designs 43 Establishing Confidence in the SMS 45 6.1 Confidence Maps for SMS 45 CMU/SEI-2015-TR-006 | SOFTWARE ENGINEERING

  12. How to Strengthen Child Learners’Self-confidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李文敬

    2013-01-01

    Self-confidence is closely related to L2 learning. In order to make their learners enjoy English learning, English teach-ers need to strengthen the learners’English learning confidence. This article is to find out English teachers’role to strengthening learners’self-confidence in ELL by means of class observation. The writer concludes improving speaking ability; giving praise and offering gentle error correcting can help to strengthen the learners’confidence.

  13. Web business confidence collaborative computing based on dynamic demand service feedback%基于动态需求服务反馈的 Web 业务可信度协同计算

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴彬; 李俊娥

    2015-01-01

    For Web service and Web business selection problem,this paper proposed a based on the dynamic needs of Web business credibility feedback collaborative computing algorithms.Dynamic analysis of the problem of Web service selection and combination of the user’s choice using a service-based model of user satisfaction feedback information to address Web serv-ices,Web business in order to prevent poor quality of services to choose the type of service.In selecting business on the Web using a calculation method based on credibility,the credibility of the size of feedback capability,trust serviced in three areas determined by the business reputation,to choose the best Web credibility by comparing the size of the business.Simulation re-sults show that the algorithm has a higher accuracy in selecting the best Web services and Web business,especially in contrast to the precise rate compared choose the best algorithm for Web service higher than 1 1 %.%针对 Web 服务和 Web 业务的选择问题,提出一种基于动态需求服务反馈的 Web 业务可信度协同计算算法,动态分析了用户的 Web 服务选择和组合问题,采用了基于用户满意度信息的服务反馈模型来解决 Web 服务的选择问题,从而防止 Web 业务选择到服务质量较差的服务类型。在 Web 业务的选择上采用了基于可信度计算的方法,可信度大小由业务信誉度、反馈能力、服务信任度三方面决定,通过可信度大小的比较来选择最佳的 Web 业务。实验仿真结果表明,该算法在选择最佳的 Web 服务和 Web 业务上具有较高的精确度,尤其在选择最佳 Web 服务的精确率上相比对比算法高出11%以上。

  14. Increasing Self-Confidence of Indonesian Low Ability Student with Green’s Motivational Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, I.; Darhim; Asih, E. C. M.

    2017-02-01

    Self-confidence is the important factor of mathematical learning, But in the reality, many 8th grade students do not have good self-confidence. To increasing the self-confidence is used Green’s motivational strategies. So the purpose of the research is to know whether the Green’s motivational strategies can increase the self-confidence of 8th grade students. The research focus on Indonesian junior high school student with lower ability. The research used qualitative research method, with basic qualitative research approach design. The activity included teaching material development and interview with student. From all conversation on the interview with students, students have satisfied feel. Students’s self-confidence has changed better. All students show up that they can handle all matematical problems.

  15. Knowledge and Confidence of Emergency Clinicians in Managing Toxicological Presentations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Monteith

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Acute poisonings are common presentations to emergency departments (EDs worldwide and require rapid assessment. Consultant emergency physicians (EPs faced with various toxicological presentations must initiate rapid investigations and empirical management. This study aimed to determine emergency department doctors’ level of knowledge and confidence in toxicological presentations, and factors that predicted these outcomes. Methods: Target participants included members of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine (ACEM and readers of the emergency medicine website, “Life in the Fast Lane”. The survey was distributed electronically via the ACEM bulletin and posted on Life in the Fast Lane. A survey was designed based on toxicology multiple choice questions (MCQs. The questionnaire comprised 59 items: 10 demographic items; 20 items about confidence; 28 MCQs assessing knowledge of common and serious toxicological presentations. Results: There were 467 consenting respondents from 31 countries, with most residing in Australia (306/467, 66%. Respondents comprised similar proportions of consultant emergency physicians (196/467, 42.0%, and trainees (197/467, 42.2%.  Almost two-thirds (292/467; 62.1% had received formal training in toxicological emergencies, while a third (166/467, 35.5% had participated in a relevant conference or workshop. A total of 284/339 (83.8% participants completing all items achieved a knowledge test score >50%. More than 65% incorrectly answered questions on pharmacology of serotonin syndrome and lithium toxicity, and more than half incorrectly answered questions on use of 12 lead ECG in toxicology, calcium channel antagonist or tricyclic antidepressant toxicities. Predictors of overall knowledge for toxicology were receipt of formal toxicology education, and clinicians’ experience and seniority. Conclusion: The knowledge and confidence of doctors working in emergency departments is varied, yet

  16. Graphical interpretation of confidence curves in rankit plots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Blaabjerg, Ole; Andersen, Marianne; Jørgensen, Lone G M; Schousboe, Karoline; Jensen, Esther

    2004-01-01

    A well-known transformation from the bell-shaped Gaussian (normal) curve to a straight line in the rankit plot is investigated, and a tool for evaluation of the distribution of reference groups is presented. It is based on the confidence intervals for percentiles of the calculated Gaussian distribution and the percentage of cumulative points exceeding these limits. The process is to rank the reference values and plot the cumulative frequency points in a rankit plot with a logarithmic (In=log(e)) transformed abscissa. If the distribution is close to In-Gaussian the cumulative frequency points will fit to the straight line describing the calculated In-Gaussian distribution. The quality of the fit is evaluated by adding confidence intervals (CI) to each point on the line and calculating the percentage of points outside the hyperbola-like CI-curves. The assumption was that the 95% confidence curves for percentiles would show 5% of points outside these limits. However, computer simulations disclosed that approximate 10% of the series would have 5% or more points outside the limits. This is a conservative validation, which is more demanding than the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The graphical presentation, however, makes it easy to disclose deviations from In-Gaussianity, and to make other interpretations of the distributions, e.g., comparison to non-Gaussian distributions in the same plot, where the cumulative frequency percentage can be read from the ordinate. A long list of examples of In-Gaussian distributions of subgroups of reference values from healthy individuals is presented. In addition, distributions of values from well-defined diseased individuals may show up as In-Gaussian. It is evident from the examples that the rankit transformation and simple graphical evaluation for non-Gaussianity is a useful tool for the description of sub-groups.

  17. 78 FR 56621 - Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-13

    ...; ] NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 10 CFR Part 51 RIN 3150-AJ20 Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental... Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement,'' that forms the regulatory basis for the proposed... Confidence rule). The NRC staff plans to hold 12 public meetings during the public comment period to present...

  18. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26... COMMUNITY Specific Sector Provisions for Medical Devices § 26.37 Confidence building activities. (a) At the beginning of the transitional period, the Joint Sectoral Group will establish a joint confidence building...

  19. 7 CFR 97.18 - Applications handled in confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Applications handled in confidence. 97.18 Section 97.18 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING... confidence. (a) Pending applications shall be handled in confidence. Except as provided below, no information...

  20. Developing Self-confidence%培养自信心

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Robert Kokoska

    2006-01-01

    @@ Ideally,self-confidence is something you develop early and maintain throughout life. For many of us,though, that just isn't the case-either the process of developing self-confidence is stymied early on,or we lose confidence because of life events.

  1. Predicting Postfeedback Performance from Students' Confidence in Their Responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Timothy A.

    The model of feedback processing proposed by R. W. Kulhavy and W. A. Stock (1989) was studied in a traditional classroom setting in which methods of assessing students' response confidence as predictors of postfeedback performance were also examined. The relationship between confidence ratings at the time of the test and confidence assessed prior…

  2. Learning about confidence intervals with software R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gariela Gonçalves

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available 0 0 1 202 1111 USAL 9 2 1311 14.0 Normal 0 21 false false false ES JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:ES; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through the proposal methodology, the acquisition of basic skills in statistical inference and to promote the positive relationships between teachers and students. It presents also a comparative study between the methodologies used and their quantitative and qualitative results on two consecutive school years, in several indicators. The data used in the study were obtained from the students to the exam questions in the years 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, from the achievement of a working group in 2011/2012 and via the responses to a questionnaire (optional and anonymous also applied in 2011 / 2012. In terms of results, we emphasize a better performance of students in the examination questions in 2011/2012, the year that students used the software R, and a very favorable student’s perspective about

  3. Systematic review of knowledge, confidence and education in nutritional genomics for students and professionals in nutrition and dietetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, O R L

    2014-06-01

    This review examines knowledge and confidence of nutrition and dietetics professionals in nutritional genomics and evaluates the teaching strategies in this field within nutrition and dietetics university programmes and professional development courses internationally. A systematic search of 10 literature databases was conducted from January 2000 to December 2012 to identify original research. Any studies of either nutrition and/or dietetics students or dietitians/nutritionists investigating current levels of knowledge or confidence in nutritional genomics, or strategies to improve learning and/or confidence in this area, were eligible. Eighteen articles (15 separate studies) met the inclusion criteria. Three articles were assessed as negative, eight as neutral and seven as positive according to the American Dietetics Association Quality Criteria Checklist. The overall ranking of evidence was low. Dietitians have low involvement, knowledge and confidence in nutritional genomics, and evidence for educational strategies is limited and methodologically weak. There is a need to develop training pathways and material to up-skill nutrition and/or dietetics students and nutrition and/or dietetics professionals in nutritional genomics through multidisciplinary collaboration with content area experts. There is a paucity of high quality evidence on optimum teaching strategies; however, methods promoting repetitive exposure to nutritional genomics material, problem-solving, collaborative and case-based learning are most promising for university and professional development programmes. © 2013 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

  4. A boost of confidence: The role of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex in memory, decision-making, and schemas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hebscher, Melissa; Gilboa, Asaf

    2016-09-01

    The ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) has been implicated in a wide array of functions across multiple domains. In this review, we focus on the vmPFC's involvement in mediating strategic aspects of memory retrieval, memory-related schema functions, and decision-making. We suggest that vmPFC generates a confidence signal that informs decisions and memory-guided behaviour. Confidence is central to these seemingly diverse functions: (1) Strategic retrieval: lesions to the vmPFC impair an early, automatic, and intuitive monitoring process ("feeling of rightness"; FOR) often associated with confabulation (spontaneous reporting of erroneous memories). Critically, confabulators typically demonstrate high levels of confidence in their false memories, suggesting that faulty monitoring following vmPFC damage may lead to indiscriminate confidence signals. (2) Memory schemas: the vmPFC is critically involved in instantiating and maintaining contextually relevant schemas, broadly defined as higher level knowledge structures that encapsulate lower level representational elements. The correspondence between memory retrieval cues and these activated schemas leads to FOR monitoring. Stronger, more elaborate schemas produce stronger FOR and influence confidence in the veracity of memory candidates. (3) Finally, we review evidence on the vmPFC's role in decision-making, extending this role to decision-making during memory retrieval. During non-mnemonic and mnemonic decision-making the vmPFC automatically encodes confidence. Confidence signal in the vmPFC is revealed as a non-linear relationship between a first-order monitoring assessment and second-order action or choice. Attempting to integrate the multiple functions of the vmPFC, we propose a posterior-anterior organizational principle for this region. More posterior vmPFC regions are involved in earlier, automatic, subjective, and contextually sensitive functions, while more anterior regions are involved in controlled actions

  5. Interpersonal confidence as a factor in the prevention of disorganized interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dontsov, Aleksander I.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Human communities are based on a certain set of everyday attitudes, on the coordination of the actions of “the self ” in a group, and on the regulation of social practices. The results of this study show that a number of factors act as determinants of trust/ distrust ambivalence: the multidimensionality and the dynamics of interactions among people; the high level of subjectivity in evaluating risks resulting from openness and from confidence in partners involved in an interaction; and a subject’s contradictory attitude toward the personal traits of an interacting partner (power, activity, honesty, trustworthiness. Japanese scholars have proved the necessity of taking into account quality of life (QOL as one of the determinants of the development of interpersonal confidence. The study demonstrates that people try to bring trust into their daily routines as a way of organizing conscientious, emotionally open interactions that take into account the interests of all parties. Mistrust blocks access to the emotional, intellectual, and activity-related resources supporting life and undermines faith in the possibility of virtue and morality. Yet a supplementary study (using instant diagnostics indicates that in practice respondents did not demonstrate a high level of confidence (in two cities it was 0%; in one city, it was 4.6%. In spite of emotionally positive views regarding trust, as well as constructive estimates of its moral/behavioral potential, a considerable number of respondents were not open and oriented to the interests of others. A tendency toward caution, inwardness, and constrained sincerity leads to nonconformity in one’s actions in a group and to changes in the vector of social practices from socio-partner regulation to disorganized interaction.

  6. On how the brain decodes vocal cues about speaker confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xiaoming; Pell, Marc D

    2015-05-01

    In speech communication, listeners must accurately decode vocal cues that refer to the speaker's mental state, such as their confidence or 'feeling of knowing'. However, the time course and neural mechanisms associated with online inferences about speaker confidence are unclear. Here, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine the temporal neural dynamics underlying a listener's ability to infer speaker confidence from vocal cues during speech processing. We recorded listeners' real-time brain responses while they evaluated statements wherein the speaker's tone of voice conveyed one of three levels of confidence (confident, close-to-confident, unconfident) or were spoken in a neutral manner. Neural responses time-locked to event onset show that the perceived level of speaker confidence could be differentiated at distinct time points during speech processing: unconfident expressions elicited a weaker P2 than all other expressions of confidence (or neutral-intending utterances), whereas close-to-confident expressions elicited a reduced negative response in the 330-500 msec and 550-740 msec time window. Neutral-intending expressions, which were also perceived as relatively confident, elicited a more delayed, larger sustained positivity than all other expressions in the 980-1270 msec window for this task. These findings provide the first piece of evidence of how quickly the brain responds to vocal cues signifying the extent of a speaker's confidence during online speech comprehension; first, a rough dissociation between unconfident and confident voices occurs as early as 200 msec after speech onset. At a later stage, further differentiation of the exact level of speaker confidence (i.e., close-to-confident, very confident) is evaluated via an inferential system to determine the speaker's meaning under current task settings. These findings extend three-stage models of how vocal emotion cues are processed in speech comprehension (e.g., Schirmer & Kotz, 2006) by

  7. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  8. Activities-Specific Balance Confidence in People with Multiple Sclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ylva Nilsagård

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To evaluate the validity of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS. Design. A multicentre, cross-sectional study. Setting. Six rural and urban Swedish sites, including specialized units at hospitals and primary care centers. Participants. A sample of 84 PwMS with subjective gait and balance impairment but still able to walk 100 m (comparable with EDSS 1–6. Outcome Measures. Timed Up and Go, Timed Up and Gocog, 25-foot Timed Walk Test, Four Square Step Test, Dynamic Gait Index, Chair Stand Test, 12-item MS Walking Scale, self-reported falls, and use of assistive walking device were used for validation. Results. The concurrent convergent validity was moderate to good (0.50 to −0.75 with the highest correlation found for the 12-item MS Walking Scale. The ABC discriminated between multiple fallers and nonfallers but not between men and women. Ecological validity is suggested since ABC discriminated between users of assistive walking device and nonusers. The internal consistency was high at α=0.95, and interitem correlations were between 0.30 and 0.83. Conclusion. This study supports the validity of the ABC for persons with mild-to-moderate MS. The participants lacked balance confidence in many everyday activities, likely restricting their participation in society.

  9. Activities-specific balance confidence in people with multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsagård, Ylva; Carling, Anna; Forsberg, Anette

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate the validity of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC) in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Design. A multicentre, cross-sectional study. Setting. Six rural and urban Swedish sites, including specialized units at hospitals and primary care centers. Participants. A sample of 84 PwMS with subjective gait and balance impairment but still able to walk 100 m (comparable with EDSS 1-6). Outcome Measures. Timed Up and Go, Timed Up and Go(cog), 25-foot Timed Walk Test, Four Square Step Test, Dynamic Gait Index, Chair Stand Test, 12-item MS Walking Scale, self-reported falls, and use of assistive walking device were used for validation. Results. The concurrent convergent validity was moderate to good (0.50 to -0.75) with the highest correlation found for the 12-item MS Walking Scale. The ABC discriminated between multiple fallers and nonfallers but not between men and women. Ecological validity is suggested since ABC discriminated between users of assistive walking device and nonusers. The internal consistency was high at α = 0.95, and interitem correlations were between 0.30 and 0.83. Conclusion. This study supports the validity of the ABC for persons with mild-to-moderate MS. The participants lacked balance confidence in many everyday activities, likely restricting their participation in society.

  10. Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Predictive Turbulence Modeling: A Priori Assessment of Prediction Confidence

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, Jin-Long; Xiao, Heng; Ling, Julia

    2016-01-01

    Although Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations are still the dominant tool for engineering design and analysis applications involving turbulent flows, standard RANS models are known to be unreliable in many flows of engineering relevance, including flows with separation, strong pressure gradients or mean flow curvature. With increasing amounts of 3-dimensional experimental data and high fidelity simulation data from Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS), data-driven turbulence modeling has become a promising approach to increase the predictive capability of RANS simulations. Recently, a data-driven turbulence modeling approach via machine learning has been proposed to predict the Reynolds stress anisotropy of a given flow based on high fidelity data from closely related flows. In this work, the closeness of different flows is investigated to assess the prediction confidence a priori. Specifically, the Mahalanobis distance and the kernel density estimation (KDE) technique...

  11. The Sensitivity of Adolescent School-Based Hearing Screens Is Significantly Improved by Adding High Frequencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekhar, Deepa L; Zalewski, Thomas R; Beiler, Jessica S; Czarnecki, Beth; Barr, Ashley L; King, Tonya S; Paul, Ian M

    2016-12-01

    High frequency hearing loss (HFHL), often related to hazardous noise, affects one in six U.S. adolescents. Yet, only 20 states include school-based hearing screens for adolescents. Only six states test multiple high frequencies. Study objectives were to (1) compare the sensitivity of state school-based hearing screens for adolescents to gold standard sound-treated booth testing and (2) consider the effect of adding multiple high frequencies and two-step screening on sensitivity/specificity. Of 134 eleventh-grade participants (2013-2014), 43 of the 134 (32%) did not pass sound-treated booth testing, and 27 of the 43 (63%) had HFHL. Sensitivity/specificity of the most common protocol (1,000, 2,000, 4,000 Hz at 20 dB HL) for these hearing losses was 25.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = [13.5, 41.2]) and 85.7% (95% CI [76.8, 92.2]), respectively. A protocol including 500, 1,000, 2,000, 4,000, 6,000 Hz at 20 dB HL significantly improved sensitivity to 76.7% (95% CI [61.4, 88.2]), p < .001. Two-step screening maintained specificity (84.6%, 95% CI [75.5, 91.3]). Adolescent school-based hearing screen sensitivity improves with high frequencies.

  12. Mn based olivine electrode material with high power and energy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jongsoon; Seo, Dong-Hwa; Kim, Sung-Wook; Park, Young-Uk; Kang, Kisuk

    2010-02-28

    We report the Mn based olivine electrode material with high power and energy. Easier and more frequent nucleation by Fe and Co in Mn-based olivines significantly enhanced the rate capability as evidenced by the electrochemical results.

  13. Base of aquifer contours for the Northern High Plains aquifer

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Several pre-existing datasets that characterize portions of the Northern High Plains aquifer base were merged together in order to define the entire base of the...

  14. Errors and Predictors of Confidence in Condom Use amongst Young Australians Attending a Music Festival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karina M. Hall

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To determine the confidence and ability to use condoms correctly and consistently and the predictors of confidence in young Australians attending a festival. Methods. 288 young people aged 18 to 29 attending a mixed-genre music festival completed a survey measuring demographics, self-reported confidence using condoms, ability to use condoms, and issues experienced when using condoms in the past 12 months. Results. Self-reported confidence using condoms was high (77%. Multivariate analyses showed confidence was associated with being male (P<0.001 and having had five or more lifetime sexual partners (P=0.038. Reading packet instructions was associated with increased condom use confidence (P=0.011. Amongst participants who had used a condom in the last year, 37% had experienced the condom breaking and 48% had experienced the condom slipping off during intercourse and 51% when withdrawing the penis after sex. Conclusion. This population of young people are experiencing high rates of condom failures and are using them inconsistently or incorrectly, demonstrating the need to improve attitudes, behaviour, and knowledge about correct and consistent condom usage. There is a need to empower young Australians, particularly females, with knowledge and confidence in order to improve condom use self-efficacy.

  15. The persistence of the fluency-confidence association in problem solving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Rakefet; Zalmanov, Hagar

    2012-12-01

    Confidence in answers is known to be sensitive to the fluency with which answers come to mind. One aspect of fluency is response latency. Latency is often a valid cue for accuracy, showing an inverse relationship with both accuracy rates and confidence. The present study examined the independent latency-confidence association in problem-solving tasks. The tasks were ecologically valid situations in which latency showed no validity, moderate validity, and high validity as a predictor of accuracy. In Experiment 1, misleading problems, which often elicit initial wrong solutions, were answered in open-ended and multiple-choice test formats. Under the open-ended test format, latency was absolutely not valid in predicting accuracy: Quickly and slowly provided solutions had a similar chance of being correct. Under the multiple-choice test format, latency predicted accuracy better. In Experiment 2, nonmisleading problems were used; here, latency was highly valid in predicting accuracy. A breakdown into correct and incorrect solutions allowed examination of the independent latency-confidence relationship when latency necessarily had no validity in predicting accuracy. In all conditions, regardless of latency's validity in predicting accuracy, confidence was persistently sensitive to latency: The participants were more confident in solutions provided quickly than in those that involved lengthy thinking. The study suggests that the reliability of the latency-confidence association in problem solving depends on the strength of the inverse relationship between latency and accuracy in the particular task.

  16. Ventral striatal activity correlates with memory confidence for old- and new-responses in a difficult recognition test.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrike Schwarze

    Full Text Available Activity in the ventral striatum has frequently been associated with retrieval success, i.e., it is higher for hits than correct rejections. Based on the prominent role of the ventral striatum in the reward circuit, its activity has been interpreted to reflect the higher subjective value of hits compared to correct rejections in standard recognition tests. This hypothesis was supported by a recent study showing that ventral striatal activity is higher for correct rejections than hits when the value of rejections is increased by external incentives. These findings imply that the striatal response during recognition is context-sensitive and modulated by the adaptive significance of "oldness" or "newness" to the current goals. The present study is based on the idea that not only external incentives, but also other deviations from standard recognition tests which affect the subjective value of specific response types should modulate striatal activity. Therefore, we explored ventral striatal activity in an unusually difficult recognition test that was characterized by low levels of confidence and accuracy. Based on the human uncertainty aversion, in such a recognition context, the subjective value of all high confident decisions is expected to be higher than usual, i.e., also rejecting items with high certainty is deemed rewarding. In an accompanying behavioural experiment, participants rated the pleasantness of each recognition response. As hypothesized, ventral striatal activity correlated in the current unusually difficult recognition test not only with retrieval success, but also with confidence. Moreover, participants indicated that they were more satisfied by higher confidence in addition to perceived oldness of an item. Taken together, the results are in line with the hypothesis that ventral striatal activity during recognition codes the subjective value of different response types that is modulated by the context of the recognition test.

  17. High accuracy GNSS based navigation in GEO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capuano, Vincenzo; Shehaj, Endrit; Blunt, Paul; Botteron, Cyril; Farine, Pierre-André

    2017-07-01

    Although significant improvements in efficiency and performance of communication satellites have been achieved in the past decades, it is expected that the demand for new platforms in Geostationary Orbit (GEO) and for the On-Orbit Servicing (OOS) on the existing ones will continue to rise. Indeed, the GEO orbit is used for many applications including direct broadcast as well as communications. At the same time, Global Navigation Satellites System (GNSS), originally designed for land, maritime and air applications, has been successfully used as navigation system in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and its further utilization for navigation of geosynchronous satellites becomes a viable alternative offering many advantages over present ground based methods. Following our previous studies of GNSS signal characteristics in Medium Earth Orbit (MEO), GEO and beyond, in this research we specifically investigate the processing of different GNSS signals, with the goal to determine the best navigation performance they can provide in a GEO mission. Firstly, a detailed selection among different GNSS signals and different combinations of them is discussed, taking into consideration the L1 and L5 frequency bands, and the GPS and Galileo constellations. Then, the implementation of an Orbital Filter is summarized, which adaptively fuses the GN1SS observations with an accurate orbital forces model. Finally, simulation tests of the navigation performance achievable by processing the selected combination of GNSS signals are carried out. The results obtained show an achievable positioning accuracy of less than one meter. In addition, hardware-in-the-loop tests are presented using a COTS receiver connected to our GNSS Spirent simulator, in order to collect real-time hardware-in-the-loop observations and process them by the proposed navigation module.

  18. The Impact of Manager's Over-confidence on M&A Performances -- An Analytical and Empirical Research Based on Group Decision Making Perspective%管理者过度自信对并购绩效的影响——基于群体决策视角的分析和实证

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢玲红; 刘善存; 邱菀华

    2012-01-01

    Most of the China's corporate decision-making are group deeision-making rather than individual. Will group decision-making strengthen or weaken the overconfidence bias? This paper studies the impact of managers' over-confidence on company's M&A performances from the group decision-making perspective. Rejection of the traditional corporate M&A theories which regard managers as rational. We make an analytical and empirical research from the behavior of corporate finance theory which take China's 422 listed and issuing A shares companies for our samples. Results show that: Managers are prevalence of over-confidence in group decision making. There are significantly negative correlation be- tween managers over-confidence and long-term M&A performances. Though the correlation between managers over-confidence and short-term M&A performances are also negative, statistically not significant. Finally, Based on results of this analysis, Give some alternative initiatives to overcome or reduce the manager's decision deviant behavior.%我国公司决策更多的是群体而非个体决策,群体决策强化还是弱化了过度自信偏差?本文从群体决策的层面研究了管理者的过度自信对公司并购绩效的影响。摈弃传统公司并购理论中的管理者理性假设,从行为公司金融理论出发,以我国422家上市发行A股的并购公司为样本进行了实证分析和研究。结果表明:群体决策中的管理者普遍存在着过度自信;管理者过度自信与并购长期绩效显著负相关;与短期绩效也负相关,但在统计上不显著。最后,根椐分析结果提出了克服或减少管理者决策偏差行为的若干可行的举措。

  19. Reducing the width of confidence intervals for the difference between two population means by inverting adaptive tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Gorman, Thomas W

    2016-08-08

    In the last decade, it has been shown that an adaptive testing method could be used, along with the Robbins-Monro search procedure, to obtain confidence intervals that are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals. However, these confidence interval limits require a great deal of computation and some familiarity with stochastic search methods. We propose a method for estimating the limits of confidence intervals that uses only a few tests of significance. We compare these limits to those obtained by a lengthy Robbins-Monro stochastic search and find that the proposed method is nearly as accurate as the Robbins-Monro search. Adaptive confidence intervals that are produced by the proposed method are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals when the distributions are long-tailed, skewed, or bimodal. Moreover, the proposed method of estimating confidence interval limits is easy to understand, because it is based solely on the p-values from a few tests of significance.

  20. Confidence-Based Robot Policy Learning from Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-05

    Asada, Oliver Obst , Daniel Polani, Brett Browning, Andrea Bonarini, Masahiro Fujit, Thomas Christaller, Tomoichi Takahashi, Satoshi Tadokoro, Elizabeth...Chung, Ross Edwards, Nathan Wong, Eileen Mak, Raymond Sheh, Min Sub Kim, Alex Tang, Nicodemus Sutanto, Bernhard Hengst, Claude Sammut, and William Uther...1040–1046. MIT press, 1997. [76] William D. Smart. Making Reinforcement Learning Work on Real Robots. PhD thesis, Department of Computer Science, Brown