Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A

2018-02-01

Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.

Decision-making patterns and self-confidence in high school adolescents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alejandro César Antonio Luna Bernal

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The present study aimed to analyse the factor structure of the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire (DMQ-II, and to examine the relationships between the factors identified and Self-confidence, in order to conceptualize the decision-making process in adolescents under the Conflict Model of Decision Making. Participants were 992 Mexican high-school students, aged between 15 and 19 years. The three factors were identified as decision-making patterns in adolescents: a Vigilance, b Hipervigilance/Procrastination and c Buck-passing. The Self-confidence showed a positive effect on Vigilance, and a negative effect on theother two patterns. Results are discussed considering the literature on decision making in adolescence.

Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-06-01

The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2008-12-15

The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

2016-12-01

The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integration of multiple biological features yields high confidence human protein interactome.

Science.gov (United States)

Karagoz, Kubra; Sevimoglu, Tuba; Arga, Kazim Yalcin

2016-08-21

The biological function of a protein is usually determined by its physical interaction with other proteins. Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are identified through various experimental methods and are stored in curated databases. The noisiness of the existing PPI data is evident, and it is essential that a more reliable data is generated. Furthermore, the selection of a set of PPIs at different confidence levels might be necessary for many studies. Although different methodologies were introduced to evaluate the confidence scores for binary interactions, a highly reliable, almost complete PPI network of Homo sapiens is not proposed yet. The quality and coverage of human protein interactome need to be improved to be used in various disciplines, especially in biomedicine. In the present work, we propose an unsupervised statistical approach to assign confidence scores to PPIs of H. sapiens. To achieve this goal PPI data from six different databases were collected and a total of 295,288 non-redundant interactions between 15,950 proteins were acquired. The present scoring system included the context information that was assigned to PPIs derived from eight biological attributes. A high confidence network, which included 147,923 binary interactions between 13,213 proteins, had scores greater than the cutoff value of 0.80, for which sensitivity, specificity, and coverage were 94.5%, 80.9%, and 82.8%, respectively. We compared the present scoring method with others for evaluation. Reducing the noise inherent in experimental PPIs via our scoring scheme increased the accuracy significantly. As it was demonstrated through the assessment of process and cancer subnetworks, this study allows researchers to construct and analyze context-specific networks via valid PPI sets and one can easily achieve subnetworks around proteins of interest at a specified confidence level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Regions of Confidence Based Approach to Enhance Segmentation with Shape Priors.

Science.gov (United States)

Appia, Vikram V; Ganapathy, Balaji; Abufadel, Amer; Yezzi, Anthony; Faber, Tracy

2010-01-18

We propose an improved region based segmentation model with shape priors that uses labels of confidence/interest to exclude the influence of certain regions in the image that may not provide useful information for segmentation. These could be regions in the image which are expected to have weak, missing or corrupt edges or they could be regions in the image which the user is not interested in segmenting, but are part of the object being segmented. In the training datasets, along with the manual segmentations we also generate an auxiliary map indicating these regions of low confidence/interest. Since, all the training images are acquired under similar conditions, we can train our algorithm to estimate these regions as well. Based on this training we will generate a map which indicates the regions in the image that are likely to contain no useful information for segmentation. We then use a parametric model to represent the segmenting curve as a combination of shape priors obtained by representing the training data as a collection of signed distance functions. We evolve an objective energy functional to evolve the global parameters that are used to represent the curve. We vary the influence each pixel has on the evolution of these parameters based on the confidence/interest label. When we use these labels to indicate the regions with low confidence; the regions containing accurate edges will have a dominant role in the evolution of the curve and the segmentation in the low confidence regions will be approximated based on the training data. Since our model evolves global parameters, it improves the segmentation even in the regions with accurate edges. This is because we eliminate the influence of the low confidence regions which may mislead the final segmentation. Similarly when we use the labels to indicate the regions which are not of importance, we will get a better segmentation of the object in the regions we are interested in.

Robust, Efficient Depth Reconstruction With Hierarchical Confidence-Based Matching.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Li; Chen, Ke; Song, Mingli; Tao, Dacheng; Chen, Gang; Chen, Chun

2017-07-01

In recent years, taking photos and capturing videos with mobile devices have become increasingly popular. Emerging applications based on the depth reconstruction technique have been developed, such as Google lens blur. However, depth reconstruction is difficult due to occlusions, non-diffuse surfaces, repetitive patterns, and textureless surfaces, and it has become more difficult due to the unstable image quality and uncontrolled scene condition in the mobile setting. In this paper, we present a novel hierarchical framework with multi-view confidence-based matching for robust, efficient depth reconstruction in uncontrolled scenes. Particularly, the proposed framework combines local cost aggregation with global cost optimization in a complementary manner that increases efficiency and accuracy. A depth map is efficiently obtained in a coarse-to-fine manner by using an image pyramid. Moreover, confidence maps are computed to robustly fuse multi-view matching cues, and to constrain the stereo matching on a finer scale. The proposed framework has been evaluated with challenging indoor and outdoor scenes, and has achieved robust and efficient depth reconstruction.

Confidence-based learning CME: overcoming barriers in irritable bowel syndrome with constipation.

Science.gov (United States)

Cash, Brooks; Mitchner, Natasha A; Ravyn, Dana

2011-01-01

Performance of health care professionals depends on both medical knowledge and the certainty with which they possess it. Conventional continuing medical education interventions assess the correctness of learners' responses but do not determine the degree of confidence with which they hold incorrect information. This study describes the use of confidence-based learning (CBL) in an activity designed to enhance learners' knowledge, confidence in their knowledge, and clinical competence with regard to constipation-predominant IBS (IBS-C), a frequently underdiagnosed and misdiagnosed condition. The online CBL activity included multiple-choice questions in 2 modules: Burden of Care (BOC; 28 questions) and Patient Scenarios (PS; 9 case-based questions). After formative assessment, targeted feedback was provided, and the learner focused on material with demonstrated knowledge and/or confidence gaps. The process was repeated until 85% of questions were answered correctly and confidently (ie, mastery was attained). Of 275 participants (24% internal medicine, 13% gastroenterology, 32% family medicine, and 31% other), 249 and 167 completed the BOC and PS modules, respectively. Among all participants, 61.8% and 98.2% achieved mastery in the BOC and PS modules, respectively. Baseline mastery levels between specialties were significantly different in the BOC module (p = 0.002); no significant differences were evident between specialties in final mastery levels. Approximately one-third of learners were confident and wrong in topics of epidemiology, defining IBS and constipation, and treatments in the first iteration. No significant difference was observed between specialties for the PS module in either the first or last iterations. Learners achieved mastery in topics pertaining to IBS-C regardless of baseline knowledge or specialty. These data indicate that CME activities employing CBL can be used to address knowledge and confidence gaps. Copyright © 2010 The Alliance for

A high confidence, manually validated human blood plasma protein reference set

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schenk, Susann; Schoenhals, Gary J; de Souza, Gustavo

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: The immense diagnostic potential of human plasma has prompted great interest and effort in cataloging its contents, exemplified by the Human Proteome Organization (HUPO) Plasma Proteome Project (PPP) pilot project. Due to challenges in obtaining a reliable blood plasma protein list......-trap-Fourier transform (LTQ-FT) and a linear ion trap-Orbitrap (LTQ-Orbitrap) for mass spectrometry (MS) analysis. Both instruments allow the measurement of peptide masses in the low ppm range. Furthermore, we employed a statistical score that allows database peptide identification searching using the products of two...... consecutive stages of tandem mass spectrometry (MS3). The combination of MS3 with very high mass accuracy in the parent peptide allows peptide identification with orders of magnitude more confidence than that typically achieved. RESULTS: Herein we established a high confidence set of 697 blood plasma proteins...

Confidence improvement of disosal safety bydevelopement of a safety case for high-level radioactive waste disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baik, Min Hoon; Ko, Nak Youl; Jeong, Jong Tae; Kim, Kyung Su [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-15

Many countries have developed a safety case suitable to their own countries in order to improve the confidence of disposal safety in deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste as well as to develop a disposal program and obtain its license. This study introduces and summarizes the meaning, necessity, and development process of the safety case for radioactive waste disposal. The disposal safety is also discussed in various aspects of the safety case. In addition, the status of safety case development in the foreign countries is briefly introduced for Switzerland, Japan, the United States of America, Sweden, and Finland. The strategy for the safety case development that is being developed by KAERI is also briefly introduced. Based on the safety case, we analyze the efforts necessary to improve confidence in disposal safety for high-level radioactive waste. Considering domestic situations, we propose and discuss some implementing methods for the improvement of disposal safety, such as construction of a reliable information database, understanding of processes related to safety, reduction of uncertainties in safety assessment, communication with stakeholders, and ensuring justice and transparency. This study will contribute to the understanding of the safety case for deep geological disposal and to improving confidence in disposal safety through the development of the safety case in Korea for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste.

Measuring the Confidence of 8th Grade Taiwanese Students' Knowledge of Acids and Bases

Science.gov (United States)

Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Tsai, Chun-Yen

2012-01-01

The present study investigated whether gender differences were present on the confidence judgments made by 8th grade Taiwanese students on the accuracy of their responses to acid-base test items. A total of 147 (76 male, 71 female) students provided item-specific confidence judgments during a test of their knowledge of acids and bases. Using the…

Confidant Relations in Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jenny Isaacs

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.

Comparison of student confidence and perceptions of biochemistry concepts using a team-based learning versus traditional lecture-based format.

Science.gov (United States)

Gryka, Rebecca; Kiersma, Mary E; Frame, Tracy R; Cailor, Stephanie M; Chen, Aleda M H

To evaluate differences in student confidence and perceptions of biochemistry concepts using a team-based learning (TBL) format versus a traditional lecture-based format at two universities. Two pedagogies (TBL vs lecture-based) were utilized to deliver biochemistry concepts at two universities in a first-professional year, semester-long biochemistry course. A 21-item instrument was created and administered pre-post semester to assess changes in confidence in learning biochemistry concepts using Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory (eight items, 5-point, Likert-type) and changes in student perceptions of biochemistry utilizing the theory of planned behavior (TPB) domains (13 items, 7- point, Likert-type). Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to evaluate pre-post changes, and Mann Whitney U tests for differences between universities. All students (N=111) had more confidence in biochemistry concepts post-semester, but TBL students (N=53) were significantly more confident. TBL students also had greater agreement that they are expected to actively engage in science courses post-semester, according to the perceptions of biochemistry subscale. No other differences between lecture and TBL were observed post-semester. Students in a TBL course had greater gains in confidence. Since students often engage in tasks where they feel confident, TBL can be a useful pedagogy to promote student learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, Stuart G.

2013-05-01

Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

Confidence-Based Learning in Investment Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Serradell-Lopez, Enric; Lara-Navarra, Pablo; Castillo-Merino, David; González-González, Inés

The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of using multiple choice tests in subjects related to the administration and business management. To this end we used a multiple-choice test with specific questions to verify the extent of knowledge gained and the confidence and trust in the answers. The tests were performed in a group of 200 students at the bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Management. The analysis made have been implemented in one subject of the scope of investment analysis and measured the level of knowledge gained and the degree of trust and security in the responses at two different times of the course. The measurements have been taken into account different levels of difficulty in the questions asked and the time spent by students to complete the test. The results confirm that students are generally able to obtain more knowledge along the way and get increases in the degree of trust and confidence in the answers. It is confirmed as the difficulty level of the questions set a priori by the heads of the subjects are related to levels of security and confidence in the answers. It is estimated that the improvement in the skills learned is viewed favourably by businesses and are especially important for job placement of students.

Using the confidence interval confidently.

Science.gov (United States)

Hazra, Avijit

2017-10-01

Biomedical research is seldom done with entire populations but rather with samples drawn from a population. Although we work with samples, our goal is to describe and draw inferences regarding the underlying population. It is possible to use a sample statistic and estimates of error in the sample to get a fair idea of the population parameter, not as a single value, but as a range of values. This range is the confidence interval (CI) which is estimated on the basis of a desired confidence level. Calculation of the CI of a sample statistic takes the general form: CI = Point estimate ± Margin of error, where the margin of error is given by the product of a critical value (z) derived from the standard normal curve and the standard error of point estimate. Calculation of the standard error varies depending on whether the sample statistic of interest is a mean, proportion, odds ratio (OR), and so on. The factors affecting the width of the CI include the desired confidence level, the sample size and the variability in the sample. Although the 95% CI is most often used in biomedical research, a CI can be calculated for any level of confidence. A 99% CI will be wider than 95% CI for the same sample. Conflict between clinical importance and statistical significance is an important issue in biomedical research. Clinical importance is best inferred by looking at the effect size, that is how much is the actual change or difference. However, statistical significance in terms of P only suggests whether there is any difference in probability terms. Use of the CI supplements the P value by providing an estimate of actual clinical effect. Of late, clinical trials are being designed specifically as superiority, non-inferiority or equivalence studies. The conclusions from these alternative trial designs are based on CI values rather than the P value from intergroup comparison.

Talking about cancer with confidence: evaluation of cancer awareness training for community-based health workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Grimmett, Chloe; Macherianakis, Alexis; Rendell, Helen; George, Helen; Kaplan, Gwen; Kilgour, Gillian; Power, Emily

2014-09-01

To examine the impact of cancer awareness training for community-based health workers on confidence to talk about cancer, and knowledge of cancer risk factors and signs and symptoms. Community-based health workers from Sandwell, Birmingham and Solihull were invited to take part in one of 14 one-day training workshops. Trainees completed questionnaires at the beginning of the workshop and were followed up one month later. Confidence in talking about cancer was examined. Knowledge of cancer risk factors and signs and symptoms was assessed. Trainees were asked to rate the usefulness of the workshop, whether they would recommend it to others and whether they had put what they had learnt into practice. A total of 187 community-based health workers took part in the workshops, and 167 (89%) completed the one-month follow-up. Considerable improvements were observed in confidence to discuss cancer. For example, the proportion of participants reporting feeling 'very confident'/'fairly confident' in discussing signs and symptoms of cancer increased from 32% to 96% (p cancer at one month compared with 21% before training (p cancer signs and symptoms also increased from 2.3 (± 1.6) to 2.7 (± 1.5), (p = .02). Most trainees (83%) rated the workshop as 'very useful', and 89% said they would 'definitely' recommend the workshop. The cancer awareness training was reviewed positively by community-based health workers and led to improvements in confidence to talk about cancer, and knowledge of risk factors and warning signs of cancer. It is hoped that raising awareness among this group will help them to communicate and drive behaviour change in the at-risk populations with whom they work. © Royal Society for Public Health 2014.

Food skills confidence and household gatekeepers' dietary practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Burton, Melissa; Reid, Mike; Worsley, Anthony; Mavondo, Felix

2017-01-01

Household food gatekeepers have the potential to influence the food attitudes and behaviours of family members, as they are mainly responsible for food-related tasks in the home. The aim of this study was to determine the role of gatekeepers' confidence in food-related skills and nutrition knowledge on food practices in the home. An online survey was completed by 1059 Australian dietary gatekeepers selected from the Global Market Insite (GMI) research database. Participants responded to questions about food acquisition and preparation behaviours, the home eating environment, perceptions and attitudes towards food, and demographics. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify groups based on confidence regarding food skills and nutrition knowledge. Chi-square tests and one-way ANOVAs were used to compare the groups on the dependent variables. Three groups were identified: low confidence, moderate confidence and high confidence. Gatekeepers in the highest confidence group were significantly more likely to report lower body mass index (BMI), and indicate higher importance of fresh food products, vegetable prominence in meals, product information use, meal planning, perceived behavioural control and overall diet satisfaction. Gatekeepers in the lowest confidence group were significantly more likely to indicate more perceived barriers to healthy eating, report more time constraints and more impulse purchasing practices, and higher convenience ingredient use. Other smaller associations were also found. Household food gatekeepers with high food skills confidence were more likely to engage in several healthy food practices, while those with low food skills confidence were more likely to engage in unhealthy food practices. Food education strategies aimed at building food-skills and nutrition knowledge will enable current and future gatekeepers to make healthier food decisions for themselves and for their families. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

2014-01-01

Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

Professional confidence: a concept analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana

2012-03-01

Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.

Interactive case-based learning improves resident knowledge and confidence in reproductive endocrinology and infertility.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldman, Kara N; Tiegs, Ashley W; Uquillas, Kristen; Nachtigall, Margaret; Fino, M Elizabeth; Winkel, Abigail F; Lerner, Veronica

2017-06-01

Resident physicians' scores on the REI section of the CREOG exam are traditionally low, and nearly 40% of house staff nation-wide perceive their REI knowledge to be poor. We aimed to assess whether an interactive case-based group-learning curriculum would narrow the REI knowledge gap by improving understanding and retention of core REI concepts under the time constraints affecting residents. A three-hour case-based workshop was developed to address four primary CREOG objectives. A multiple-choice test was administered immediately before and after the intervention and 7 weeks post-workshop, to evaluate both knowledge and confidence. Following the intervention, residents self-reported increased confidence with counseling and treatment of PCOS, ovulation induction cycle monitoring, counseling and treatment of POI, and breaking bad news related to infertility (p < 0.05). The multiple-choice exam was re-administered 7 weeks post-intervention, and scores remained significantly improved compared to pre-workshop scores (p < 0.05). At that time, all residents either strongly agreed (91.7%) or agreed (8.3%) that the case-based interactive format was preferable to traditional lecture-based teaching. In conclusion, a nontraditional curriculum aimed at teaching core REI concepts to residents through interactive case-based learning can be successfully integrated into a residency curriculum, and significantly improves knowledge and confidence of critical concepts in REI.

Student Perceptions of and Confidence in Self-Care Course Concepts Using Team-based Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Frame, Tracy R; Gryka, Rebecca; Kiersma, Mary E; Todt, Abby L; Cailor, Stephanie M; Chen, Aleda M H

2016-04-25

Objective. To evaluate changes in student perceptions of and confidence in self-care concepts after completing a team-based learning (TBL) self-care course. Methods. Team-based learning was used at two universities in first professional year, semester-long self-care courses. Two instruments were created and administered before and after the semester. The instruments were designed to assess changes in student perceptions of self-care using the theory of planned behavior (TPB) domains and confidence in learning self-care concepts using Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory. Wilcoxon signed rank tests were used to evaluate pre/post changes, and Mann Whitney U tests were used to evaluate university differences. Results. Fifty-three Cedarville University and 58 Manchester University students completed both instruments (100% and 92% response rates, respectively). Student self-care perceptions with TPB decreased significantly on nine of 13 items for Cedarville and decreased for one of 13 items for Manchester. Student confidence in self-care concepts improved significantly on all questions for both universities. Conclusion. Data indicate TBL self-care courses were effective in improving student confidence about self-care concepts. Establishing students' skill sets prior to entering the profession is beneficial because pharmacists will use self-directed learning to expand their knowledge and adapt to problem-solving situations.

Blind RSSD-Based Indoor Localization with Confidence Calibration and Energy Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tengyue Zou

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Indoor localization based on wireless sensor networks (WSNs is an important field of research with numerous applications, such as elderly care, miner security, and smart buildings. In this paper, we present a localization method based on the received signal strength difference (RSSD to determine a target on a map with unknown transmission information. To increase the accuracy of localization, we propose a confidence value for each anchor node to indicate its credibility for participating in the estimation. An automatic calibration device is designed to help acquire the values. The acceleration sensor and unscented Kalman filter (UKF are also introduced to reduce the influence of measuring noise in the application. Energy control is another key point in WSN systems and may prolong the lifetime of the system. Thus, a quadtree structure is constructed to describe the region correlation between neighboring areas, and the unnecessary anchor nodes can be detected and set to sleep to save energy. The localization system is implemented on real-time Texas Instruments CC2430 and CC2431 embedded platforms, and the experimental results indicate that these mechanisms achieve a high accuracy and low energy cost.

Speech-language pathologists' knowledge of genetics: perceived confidence, attitudes, knowledge acquisition and practice-based variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Tramontana, G Michael; Blood, Ingrid M; Blood, Gordon W

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine (a) the general knowledge bases demonstrated by school-based speech-language pathologists (SLPs) in the area of genetics, (b) the confidence levels of SLPs in providing services to children and their families with genetic disorders/syndromes, (c) the attitudes of SLPs regarding genetics and communication disorders, (d) the primary sources used by SLPs to learn about genetic disorders/syndromes, and (e) the association between general knowledge, confidence, attitudes, the number of years of experience working as an SLP, and the number of children currently provided services with genetic disorders/syndromes on SLPs' caseloads. Survey data from a nationwide sample of 533 SLPs was analyzed. Results showed SLPs earned a median knowledge score about genetics of 66% correct responses. Their mean confidence and attitude ratings were in the "unsure" categories while they reported they learned about genetics from three main sources, (a) self-study via web and internet-based searches, (b) on-the-job training and (c) popular press magazines and newspapers. Analyses revealed that Confidence summary scores, Attitude Summary scores, the number of children with genetic disorders/syndromes on SLPs' caseloads are positively associated with the ratings of participants with the highest Knowledge scores. Readers will be able to (a) explain the important links between developmental and communication disabilities and genetics, (b) describe the associations between knowledge about genetics and confidence, attitudes, and the number of children with genetic disorders/syndromes on their caseloads, and (c) outline the clinical and theoretical implications of the results from this study. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Teachers and Counselors: Building Math Confidence in Schools

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph M. Furner

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Mathematics teachers need to take on the role of counselors in addressing the math anxious in today's math classrooms. This paper looks at the impact math anxiety has on the future of young adults in our high-tech society. Teachers and professional school counselors are encouraged to work together to prevent and reduce math anxiety. It is important that all students feel confident in their ability to do mathematics in an age that relies so heavily on problem solving, technology, science, and mathematics. It really is a school's obligation to see that their students value and feel confident in their ability to do math, because ultimately a child's life: all decisions they will make and careers choices may be determined based on their disposition toward mathematics. This paper raises some interesting questions and provides some strategies (See Appendix A for teachers and counselors for addressing the issue of math anxiety while discussing the importance of developing mathematically confident young people for a high-tech world of STEM.

Confidence Building Strategies in the Public Schools.

Science.gov (United States)

Achilles, C. M.; And Others

1985-01-01

Data from the Phi Delta Kappa Commission on Public Confidence in Education indicate that "high-confidence" schools make greater use of marketing and public relations strategies. Teacher attitudes were ranked first and administrator attitudes second by 409 respondents for both gain and loss of confidence in schools. (MLF)

Confidence bands for inverse regression models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birke, Melanie; Bissantz, Nicolai; Holzmann, Hajo

2010-01-01

We construct uniform confidence bands for the regression function in inverse, homoscedastic regression models with convolution-type operators. Here, the convolution is between two non-periodic functions on the whole real line rather than between two periodic functions on a compact interval, since the former situation arguably arises more often in applications. First, following Bickel and Rosenblatt (1973 Ann. Stat. 1 1071–95) we construct asymptotic confidence bands which are based on strong approximations and on a limit theorem for the supremum of a stationary Gaussian process. Further, we propose bootstrap confidence bands based on the residual bootstrap and prove consistency of the bootstrap procedure. A simulation study shows that the bootstrap confidence bands perform reasonably well for moderate sample sizes. Finally, we apply our method to data from a gel electrophoresis experiment with genetically engineered neuronal receptor subunits incubated with rat brain extract

Confidence Testing for Knowledge-Based Global Communities

Science.gov (United States)

Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

2009-01-01

This proposal advocates the position that the use of confidence wagering (CW) during testing can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during between-subject assessments. Data revealed female students were more favorable to taking risks when making CW and less inclined toward risk aversion than their male counterparts. Student…

Confidence in Alternative Dispute Resolution: Experience from Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christof Schwenkel

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Alternative Dispute Resolution plays a crucial role in the justice system of Switzerland. With the unified Swiss Code of Civil Procedure, it is required that each litigation session shall be preceded by an attempt at conciliation before a conciliation authority. However, there has been little research on conciliation authorities and the public's perception of the authorities. This paper looks at public confidence in conciliation authorities and provides results of a survey conducted with more than 3,400 participants. This study found that public confidence in Swiss conciliation authorities is generally high, exceeds the ratings for confidence in cantonal governments and parliaments, but is lower than confidence in courts.Since the institutional models of the conciliation authorities (meaning the organization of the authorities and the selection of the conciliators differ widely between the 26 Swiss cantons, the influence of the institutional models on public confidence is analyzed. Contrary to assumptions based on New Institutional-ism approaches, this study reports that the institutional models do not impact public confidence. Also, the relationship between a participation in an election of justices of the peace or conciliators and public confidence in these authorities is found to be at most very limited (and negative. Similar to common findings on courts, the results show that general contacts with conciliation authorities decrease public confidence in these institutions whereas a positive experience with a conciliation authority leads to more confidence.The Study was completed as part of the research project 'Basic Research into Court Management in Switzerland', supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF. Christof Schwenkel is a PhD student at the University of Lucerne and a research associate and project manager at Interface Policy Studies. A first version of this article was presented at the 2013 European Group for Public

Consumer confidence or the business cycle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper

2014-01-01

Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low...

Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

2011-01-01

of the 'value' of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. Such secondary assessment of confidence represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision and ultimately a tool for improving or targeting actions to improve the health......This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...

Unified voxel- and tensor-based morphometry (UVTBM) using registration confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Ali R; Wang, Lei; Beg, Mirza Faisal

2015-01-01

Voxel-based morphometry (VBM) and tensor-based morphometry (TBM) both rely on spatial normalization to a template and yet have different requirements for the level of registration accuracy. VBM requires only global alignment of brain structures, with limited degrees of freedom in transformation, whereas TBM performs best when the registration is highly deformable and can achieve higher registration accuracy. In addition, the registration accuracy varies over the whole brain, with higher accuracy typically observed in subcortical areas and lower accuracy seen in cortical areas. Hence, even the determinant of Jacobian of registration maps is spatially varying in their accuracy, and combining these with VBM by direct multiplication introduces errors in VBM maps where the registration is inaccurate. We propose a unified approach to combining these 2 morphometry methods that is motivated by these differing requirements for registration and our interest in harnessing the advantages of both. Our novel method uses local estimates of registration confidence to determine how to weight the influence of VBM- and TBM-like approaches. Results are shown on healthy and mild Alzheimer's subjects (N = 150) investigating age and group differences, and potential of differential diagnosis is shown on a set of Alzheimer's disease (N = 34) and frontotemporal dementia (N = 30) patients compared against controls (N = 14). These show that the group differences detected by our proposed approach are more descriptive than those detected from VBM, Jacobian-modulated VBM, and TBM separately, hence leveraging the advantages of both approaches in a unified framework. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

INEMO: Distributed RF-Based Indoor Location Determination with Confidence Indicator

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Youxian Sun

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Using radio signal strength (RSS in sensor networks localization is an attractive method since it is a cost-efficient method to provide range indication. In this paper, we present a two-tier distributed approach for RF-based indoor location determination. Our approach, namely, INEMO, provides positioning accuracy of room granularity and office cube granularity. A target can first give a room granularity request and the background anchor nodes cooperate to accomplish the positioning process. Anchors in the same room can give cube granularity if the target requires further accuracy. Fixed anchor nodes keep monitoring status of nearby anchors and local reference matching is used to support room separation. Furthermore, we utilize the RSS difference to infer the positioning confidence. The simulation results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed RF-based indoor location determination.

Confidence assessment. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-09-01

The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Forsmark). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. The confidence in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface-based site investigations, have been assessed by exploring: Confidence in the site characterisation data base; Key remaining issues and their handling; Handling of alternative models; Consistency between disciplines; and, Main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. It is generally found that the key aspects of importance for safety assessment and repository engineering of the Forsmark site descriptive model are associated with a high degree of confidence. Because of the robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in Forsmark site descriptive model is judged to be high. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models. Most, but not all, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. Poor precision in the measured data are judged to have limited impact on uncertainties on the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of inaccuracy in determining the position of some boreholes at depth in 3-D space, as well as the poor precision of the orientation of BIPS images in some boreholes, and the poor precision of stress data determined by overcoring at the locations where the pre

Effect of spotters on state anxiety and self-confidence during maximal squatting among male high school athletes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Drew Rykert

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The ideal performance state is manifested by psychological and physiological efficiency. The psychological effects of anxiety and self-confidence has been shown to alter the efficiency of performance. This study attempted to identify the state anxiety and self-confidence of high school athletes just prior to a one repetition maximum (1-RM back squat and determine if the number of spotters affects an athlete’s level of state anxiety and/or self-confidence. Male high school athletes (10th and 11th grades were randomly separated into two experimental groups who performed the 1-RM back squat (BSQ with either 1 spotter (1SG: n=52 or 3 spotters (3SG: n=54. Following a dynamic warm-up period and several progressive BSQ warm-up sets, and just prior to attempts at a 1-RM BSQ, the participants completed the revised Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2 (CSAI-2R. The CSAI-2R included the number of spotters (1 or 3 that would be present during the subsequent 1-RM BSQ attempts. The CSAI-2R is a17-question instrument with three subscales (self-confidence, somatic anxiety, and cognitive anxiety. The subscale scores were compared between the 1SG and 3SG with an independent t-test (alpha≤0.05. None of the subscales (self-confidence, somatic anxiety, and cognitive anxiety were significantly different between the 1SG and 3SG experimental groups (p>0.05. Within the parameters of this study, the number of spotters present during the execution of the 1-RM BSQ had no practical or statistical impact on self-confidence, somatic anxiety, and cognitive anxiety. Coaches and athletes could use this information in the training environment in order to make best use of personnel (assigned to spotting tasks, physical resources (ex. squat racks, and time management.

Speech-Language Pathologists' Knowledge of Genetics: Perceived Confidence, Attitudes, Knowledge Acquisition and Practice-Based Variables

Science.gov (United States)

Tramontana, G. Michael; Blood, Ingrid M.; Blood, Gordon W.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine (a) the general knowledge bases demonstrated by school-based speech-language pathologists (SLPs) in the area of genetics, (b) the confidence levels of SLPs in providing services to children and their families with genetic disorders/syndromes, (c) the attitudes of SLPs regarding genetics and communication…

Simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function

OpenAIRE

Dudek, Anna; Gocwin, Maciej; Leskow, Jacek

2006-01-01

The construction of the simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function is considered. The Nelson--Aalen estimator is used. The simultaneous confidence bands based on bootstrap methods are presented. Two methods of construction of such confidence bands are proposed. The weird bootstrap method is used for resampling. Simulations are made to compare the actual coverage probability of the bootstrap and the asymptotic simultaneous confidence bands. It is shown that the equal--tai...

Comparing the Effects of Simulation-Based and Traditional Teaching Methods on the Critical Thinking Abilities and Self-Confidence of Nursing Students.

Science.gov (United States)

AlAmrani, Mashael-Hasan; AlAmmar, Kamila-Ahmad; AlQahtani, Sarah-Saad; Salem, Olfat A

2017-10-10

Critical thinking and self-confidence are imperative to success in clinical practice. Educators should use teaching strategies that will help students enhance their critical thinking and self-confidence in complex content such as electrocardiogram interpretation. Therefore, teaching electrocardiogram interpretation to students is important for nurse educators. This study compares the effect of simulation-based and traditional teaching methods on the critical thinking and self-confidence of students during electrocardiogram interpretation sessions. Thirty undergraduate nursing students volunteered to participate in this study. The participants were divided into intervention and control groups, which were taught respectively using the simulation-based and traditional teaching programs. All of the participants were asked to complete the study instrumentpretest and posttest to measure their critical thinking and self-confidence. Improvement was observed in the control and experimental groups with respect to critical thinking and self-confidence, as evidenced by the results of the paired samples t test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test (p .05). This study evaluated an innovative simulation-based teaching method for nurses. No significant differences in outcomes were identified between the simulator-based and traditional teaching methods, indicating that well-implemented educational programs that use either teaching method effectively promote critical thinking and self-confidence in nursing students. Nurse educators are encouraged to design educational plans with clear objectives to improve the critical thinking and self-confidence of their students. Future research should compare the effects of several teaching sessions using each method in a larger sample.

Confidence and trust: empirical investigations for the Netherlands and the financial sector

OpenAIRE

Mosch, Robert; Prast, Henriëtte

2010-01-01

This paper reviews the state of confidence and trust in the Netherlands, with special attention to the financial sector. An attempt has been made to identify the factors that determine individual trust and confidence and to uncover connections between the various variables. Based on surveys over the period 2003-2006, the data show that interpersonal trust in the Netherlands - the extent to which the Dutch trust each other - is high from both an international and an historical perspective. Peo...

Nurses' Knowledge, Perception, and Self-Confidence Regarding Evidence-Based Antibiotic Use in the Long-Term Care Setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Hale, LaDonna S; Votaw, Lindsey L; Mayer, Janell E; Sobota, Kristen F

2017-11-01

Describe knowledge, perceptions, and self-confidence of nurses in the long-term care setting before and after online antibiotic stewardship education, and assess effectiveness and satisfaction with the education. Pre-/postsurvey. Three long-term care facilities, Topeka, Kansas. Convenience sample of 140 licensed practical and registered nurses. Nurses viewed a 12-minute online module developed by long-term care consultant pharmacists. The module discussed risks of antibiotic use and the Loeb minimum criteria for initiation of antibiotics in long-term care residents for urinary and respiratory tract infections and explored other conditions contributing to suspicion of these infections. Knowledge, perceptions, and self-confidence were measured using a 5-point Likert-scale survey modified from the Minnesota Department of Health taken before and after the module. Response rate was 45% (63/140) pre-education and 41% (57/140) post-education. Nurses had high baseline self-confidence (mean 4.2 to 4.5/5.0) and pre/post scores did not change significantly. Statistically significant improvements in knowledge and perceptions were seen in 15 of the 33 indices related to assumptions regarding antibiotic use, risks, and indicators of urinary and respiratory bacterial infections. Nurses rated the education as high quality (95%), applicable to practice (95%), and felt very likely to change practice (91%). Although baseline self-confidence was high, key misperceptions were identified, indicating that nurses may not be aware of their knowledge deficits or misperceptions. This low-cost, 12-minute, online education was highly valued and effectively improved nurses' knowledge and perceptions.

Spatio-Spectral Method for Estimating Classified Regions with High Confidence using MODIS Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katiyal, Anuj; Rajan, Dr K S

2014-01-01

In studies like change analysis, the availability of very high resolution (VHR)/high resolution (HR) imagery for a particular period and region is a challenge due to the sensor revisit times and high cost of acquisition. Therefore, most studies prefer lower resolution (LR) sensor imagery with frequent revisit times, in addition to their cost and computational advantages. Further, the classification techniques provide us a global estimate of the class accuracy, which limits its utility if the accuracy is low. In this work, we focus on the sub-classification problem of LR images and estimate regions of higher confidence than the global classification accuracy within its classified region. The spectrally classified data was mined into spatially clustered regions and further refined and processed using statistical measures to arrive at local high confidence regions (LHCRs), for every class. Rabi season MODIS data of January 2006 and 2007 was used for this study and the evaluation of LHCR was done using the APLULC 2005 classified data. For Jan-2007, the global class accuracies for water bodies (WB), forested regions (FR) and Kharif crops and barren lands (KB) were 89%, 71.7% and 71.23% respectively, while the respective LHCRs had accuracies of 96.67%, 89.4% and 80.9% covering an area of 46%, 29% and 14.5% of the initially classified areas. Though areas are reduced, LHCRs with higher accuracies help in extracting more representative class regions. Identification of such regions can facilitate in improving the classification time and processing for HR images when combined with the more frequently acquired LR imagery, isolate pure vs. mixed/impure pixels and as training samples locations for HR imagery

Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cleminson, F.R.

1998-01-01

Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

Frontline nurse managers' confidence and self-efficacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Dyk, Jennifer; Siedlecki, Sandra L; Fitzpatrick, Joyce J

2016-05-01

This study was focused on determining relationships between confidence levels and self-efficacy among nurse managers. Frontline nurse managers have a pivotal role in delivering high-quality patient care while managing the associated costs and resources. The competency and skill of nurse managers affect every aspect of patient care and staff well-being as nurse managers are largely responsible for creating work environments in which clinical nurses are able to provide high-quality, patient-centred, holistic care. A descriptive, correlational survey design was used; 85 nurse managers participated. Years in a formal leadership role and confidence scores were found to be significant predictors of self-efficacy scores. Experience as a nurse manager is an important component of confidence and self-efficacy. There is a need to develop educational programmes for nurse managers to enhance their self-confidence and self-efficacy, and to maintain experienced nurse managers in the role. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

Science.gov (United States)

de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

2015-01-01

Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

Local confidence limits for IMRT and VMAT techniques: a study based on TG119 test suite

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, M.; Chandroth, M.

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to generate a local confidence limit (CL) for intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) techniques used at Waikato Regional Cancer Centre. This work was carried out based on the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Task Group (TG) 119 report. The AAPM TG 119 report recommends CLs as a bench mark for IMRT commissioning and delivery based on its multiple institutions planning and dosimetry comparisons. In this study the locally obtained CLs were compared to TG119 benchmarks. Furthermore, the same bench mark was used to test the capabilities and quality of the VMAT technique in our clinic. The TG 119 test suite consists of two primary and four clinical tests for evaluating the accuracy of IMRT planning and dose delivery systems. Pre defined structure sets contoured on computed tomography images were downloaded from AAPM website and were transferred to a locally designed phantom. For each test case two plans were generated using IMRT and VMAT optimisation. Dose prescriptions and planning objectives recommended by TG119 report were followed to generate the test plans in Eclipse Treatment Planning System. For each plan the point dose measurements were done using an ion chamber at high dose and low dose regions. The planar dose distribution was analysed for percentage of points passing the gamma criteria of 3 %/3 mm, for both the composite plan and individual fields of each plan. The CLs were generated based on the results from the gamma analysis and point dose measurements. For IMRT plans, the CLs obtained were (1) from point dose measurements: 2.49 % at high dose region and 2.95 % for the low dose region (2) from gamma analysis: 2.12 % for individual fields and 5.9 % for the composite plan. For VMAT plans, the CLs obtained were (1) from point dose measurements: 2.56 % at high dose region and 2.6 % for the low dose region (2) from gamma analysis: 1.46 % for individual fields and 0

Confidence Leak in Perceptual Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D'Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan

2015-11-01

People live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a continuity field in which objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of metacognitive representations. In three experiments, we demonstrated a robust intertask confidence leak-that is, confidence in one's response on a given task or trial influencing confidence on the following task or trial. This confidence leak could not be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Better ability to modulate confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in the prefrontal cortex. © The Author(s) 2015.

Decision time and confidence predict choosers' identification performance in photographic showups

Science.gov (United States)

Sagana, Anna; Sporer, Siegfried L.; Wixted, John T.

2018-01-01

In vast contrast to the multitude of lineup studies that report on the link between decision time, confidence, and identification accuracy, only a few studies looked at these associations for showups, with results varying widely across studies. We therefore set out to test the individual and combined value of decision time and post-decision confidence for diagnosing the accuracy of positive showup decisions using confidence-accuracy characteristic curves and Bayesian analyses. Three-hundred-eighty-four participants viewed a stimulus event and were subsequently presented with two showups which could be target-present or target-absent. As expected, we found a negative decision time-accuracy and a positive post-decision confidence-accuracy correlation for showup selections. Confidence-accuracy characteristic curves demonstrated the expected additive effect of combining both postdictors. Likewise, Bayesian analyses, taking into account all possible target-presence base rate values showed that fast and confident identification decisions were more diagnostic than slow or less confident decisions, with the combination of both being most diagnostic for postdicting accurate and inaccurate decisions. The postdictive value of decision time and post-decision confidence was higher when the prior probability that the suspect is the perpetrator was high compared to when the prior probability that the suspect is the perpetrator was low. The frequent use of showups in practice emphasizes the importance of these findings for court proceedings. Overall, these findings support the idea that courts should have most trust in showup identifications that were made fast and confidently, and least in showup identifications that were made slowly and with low confidence. PMID:29346394

Comprehensive Plan for Public Confidence in Nuclear Regulator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Kwang Sik; Choi, Young Sung; Kim, Ho ki

2008-01-01

Public confidence in nuclear regulator has been discussed internationally. Public trust or confidence is needed for achieving regulatory goal of assuring nuclear safety to the level that is acceptable by the public or providing public ease for nuclear safety. In Korea, public ease or public confidence has been suggested as major policy goal in the 'Nuclear regulatory policy direction' annually announced. This paper reviews theory of trust, its definitions and defines nuclear safety regulation, elements of public trust or public confidence developed based on the study conducted so far. Public ease model developed and 10 measures for ensuring public confidence are also presented and future study directions are suggested

Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence

Types of Feedback in Competency-Based Predoctoral Orthodontics: Effects on Students' Attitudes and Confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Lipp, Mitchell J; Cho, Kiyoung; Kim, Han Suk

2017-05-01

Feedback can exert a powerful influence on learning and achievement although its effect varies. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of three types of feedback on dental students' attitudes and confidence in a competency-based course in predoctoral orthodontics at New York University College of Dentistry. In 2013-14, all 253 third-year students in a course using test-enhanced instructional methods received written feedback on formative assessments. The type of feedback varied across three groups: pass/fail grades (PF) N=77, emoticons (EM) N=90, or written comments (WC) N=86. At the end of the course, students completed surveys that included four statements addressing their attitudes toward course instruction and confidence in their abilities. The survey response rate ranged from 75% to 100% among groups. The lowest response rate (75%) was in the PF group. In attitudes toward course instruction and confidence in their abilities, the WC group trended to more positive responses than the other groups, while the PF group trended to negative responses. On two of the four statements, the trend for the WC group was significant (95% CI). In both statements concerning attitudes toward instruction, the PF group trended to negative responses that were significant (95% CI). These results support the effectiveness of descriptive written comments over pass/fail grades or emoticons in improving dental students' confidence in their abilities and their attitudes toward instruction.

Maternal Confidence for Physiologic Childbirth: A Concept Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Neerland, Carrie E

2018-06-06

Confidence is a term often used in research literature and consumer media in relation to birth, but maternal confidence has not been clearly defined, especially as it relates to physiologic labor and birth. The aim of this concept analysis was to define maternal confidence in the context of physiologic labor and childbirth. Rodgers' evolutionary method was used to identify attributes, antecedents, and consequences of maternal confidence for physiologic birth. Databases searched included Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Sociological Abstracts from the years 1995 to 2015. A total of 505 articles were retrieved, using the search terms pregnancy, obstetric care, prenatal care, and self-efficacy and the keyword confidence. Articles were identified for in-depth review and inclusion based on whether the term confidence was used or assessed in relationship to labor and/or birth. In addition, a hand search of the reference lists of the selected articles was performed. Twenty-four articles were reviewed in this concept analysis. We define maternal confidence for physiologic birth as a woman's belief that physiologic birth can be achieved, based on her view of birth as a normal process and her belief in her body's innate ability to birth, which is supported by social support, knowledge, and information founded on a trusted relationship with a maternity care provider in an environment where the woman feels safe. This concept analysis advances the concept of maternal confidence for physiologic birth and provides new insight into how women's confidence for physiologic birth might be enhanced during the prenatal period. Further investigation of confidence for physiologic birth across different cultures is needed to identify cultural differences in constructions of the concept. © 2018 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cleminson, F.R. [Dept. of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Verification, Non-Proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament Div (IDA), Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

1998-07-01

Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

Secure and Usable Bio-Passwords based on Confidence Interval

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aeyoung Kim

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The most popular user-authentication method is the password. Many authentication systems try to enhance their security by enforcing a strong password policy, and by using the password as the first factor, something you know, with the second factor being something you have. However, a strong password policy and a multi-factor authentication system can make it harder for a user to remember the password and login in. In this paper a bio-password-based scheme is proposed as a unique authentication method, which uses biometrics and confidence interval sets to enhance the security of the log-in process and make it easier as well. The method offers a user-friendly solution for creating and registering strong passwords without the user having to memorize them. Here we also show the results of our experiments which demonstrate the efficiency of this method and how it can be used to protect against a variety of malicious attacks.

GENERALISED MODEL BASED CONFIDENCE INTERVALS IN TWO STAGE CLUSTER SAMPLING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher Ouma Onyango

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Chambers and Dorfman (2002 constructed bootstrap confidence intervals in model based estimation for finite population totals assuming that auxiliary values are available throughout a target population and that the auxiliary values are independent. They also assumed that the cluster sizes are known throughout the target population. We now extend to two stage sampling in which the cluster sizes are known only for the sampled clusters, and we therefore predict the unobserved part of the population total. Jan and Elinor (2008 have done similar work, but unlike them, we use a general model, in which the auxiliary values are not necessarily independent. We demonstrate that the asymptotic properties of our proposed estimator and its coverage rates are better than those constructed under the model assisted local polynomial regression model.

A Novel Multiplayer Screen-Based Simulation Experience for African Learners Improved Confidence in Management of Postpartum Hemorrhage.

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Taekman, Jeffrey M; Foureman, Megan F; Bulamba, Fred; Steele, Michael; Comstock, Emily; Kintu, Andrew; Mauritz, Amy; Olufolabi, Adeyemi

2017-01-01

Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) remains a global challenge, affecting thirteen million women each year. In addition, PPH is a leading cause of maternal mortality in Asia and Africa. In the U.S.A., care of critically ill patients is often practiced using mannequin-based simulation. Mannequin-based simulation presents challenges in global health, particularly in low- or middle-income countries. We developed a novel multiplayer screen-based simulation in a virtual world enabling the practice of team coordination with PPH. We used this simulation with learners in Mulago, Uganda. We hypothesized that a multiplayer screen-based simulation experience would increase learner confidence in their ability to manage PPH. The study design was a simple pre- and a post-intervention survey. Forty-eight interprofessional subjects participated in one of nine 1-h simulation sessions using the PPH software. A fifteen-question self-assessment administered before and after the intervention was designed to probe the areas of learning as defined by Bloom and Krathwohl: affective, cognitive, and psychomotor. Combined confidence scores increased significantly overall following the simulation experience and individually in each of the three categories of Bloom's Taxonomy: affective, cognitive, and psychomotor. We provide preliminary evidence that multiplayer screen-based simulation represents a scalable, distributable form of learning that may be used effectively in global health education and training. Interestingly, despite our intervention being screen-based, our subjects showed improved confidence in their ability to perform psychomotor tasks. Although there is precedent for mental rehearsal improving performance, further research is needed to understand this finding.

A Novel Multiplayer Screen-Based Simulation Experience for African Learners Improved Confidence in Management of Postpartum Hemorrhage

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Jeffrey M. Taekman

2017-09-01

Full Text Available IntroductionPostpartum hemorrhage (PPH remains a global challenge, affecting thirteen million women each year. In addition, PPH is a leading cause of maternal mortality in Asia and Africa. In the U.S.A., care of critically ill patients is often practiced using mannequin-based simulation. Mannequin-based simulation presents challenges in global health, particularly in low- or middle-income countries. We developed a novel multiplayer screen-based simulation in a virtual world enabling the practice of team coordination with PPH. We used this simulation with learners in Mulago, Uganda. We hypothesized that a multiplayer screen-based simulation experience would increase learner confidence in their ability to manage PPH.MethodsThe study design was a simple pre- and a post-intervention survey. Forty-eight interprofessional subjects participated in one of nine 1-h simulation sessions using the PPH software. A fifteen-question self-assessment administered before and after the intervention was designed to probe the areas of learning as defined by Bloom and Krathwohl: affective, cognitive, and psychomotor.ResultsCombined confidence scores increased significantly overall following the simulation experience and individually in each of the three categories of Bloom’s Taxonomy: affective, cognitive, and psychomotor.ConclusionWe provide preliminary evidence that multiplayer screen-based simulation represents a scalable, distributable form of learning that may be used effectively in global health education and training. Interestingly, despite our intervention being screen-based, our subjects showed improved confidence in their ability to perform psychomotor tasks. Although there is precedent for mental rehearsal improving performance, further research is needed to understand this finding.

Data on electrical energy conservation using high efficiency motors for the confidence bounds using statistical techniques.

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Shaikh, Muhammad Mujtaba; Memon, Abdul Jabbar; Hussain, Manzoor

2016-09-01

In this article, we describe details of the data used in the research paper "Confidence bounds for energy conservation in electric motors: An economical solution using statistical techniques" [1]. The data presented in this paper is intended to show benefits of high efficiency electric motors over the standard efficiency motors of similar rating in the industrial sector of Pakistan. We explain how the data was collected and then processed by means of formulas to show cost effectiveness of energy efficient motors in terms of three important parameters: annual energy saving, cost saving and payback periods. This data can be further used to construct confidence bounds for the parameters using statistical techniques as described in [1].

How to confidently teach EBM on foot: development and evaluation of a web-based e-learning course

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weberschock, Tobias; Sorinola, Olanrewaju; Thangaratinam, Shakila; Oude Rengerink, Katrien; Arvanitis, Theodoros N.; Khan, Khalid S.; Weinbrenner, Susanne; Horvath, Andrea R.; Onody, Rita; Zanrei, Gianni; Kunz, Regina; Suter, Katja; Walczac, Jacek; Burnand, Bernard; Arditi, Chantal; Zamora, Javier; Mol, Ben W. J.; Barnfield, Gemma; Gee, Harry; Kaleta, Anna

2013-01-01

Scarcity of well-trained clinical tutors is a key constraint in integrating teaching of evidence-based medicine (EBM) into clinical activities. We developed a web-based educational course for clinical trainers to confidently teach EBM principles in everyday practice. Its e-learning modules defined

Effect of CALIPSO Cloud Aerosol Discrimination (CAD) Confidence Levels on Observations of Aerosol Properties near Clouds

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Yang, Weidong; Marshak, Alexander; Varnai, Tamas; Liu, Zhaoyan

2012-01-01

CALIPSO aerosol backscatter enhancement in the transition zone between clouds and clear sky areas is revisited with particular attention to effects of data selection based on the confidence level of cloud-aerosol discrimination (CAD). The results show that backscatter behavior in the transition zone strongly depends on the CAD confidence level. Higher confidence level data has a flatter backscatter far away from clouds and a much sharper increase near clouds (within 4 km), thus a smaller transition zone. For high confidence level data it is shown that the overall backscatter enhancement is more pronounced for small clear-air segments and horizontally larger clouds. The results suggest that data selection based on CAD reduces the possible effects of cloud contamination when studying aerosol properties in the vicinity of clouds.

On Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculation

CERN Document Server

Tegenfeldt, Fredrik

2005-01-01

In high energy physics, a widely used method to treat systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculations is based on combining a frequentist construction of confidence belts with a Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties. In this note we present a study of the coverage of this method for the standard Likelihood Ratio (aka Feldman & Cousins) construction for a Poisson process with known background and Gaussian or log-Normal distributed uncertainties in the background or signal efficiency. For uncertainties in the signal efficiency of upto 40 % we find over-coverage on the level of 2 to 4 % depending on the size of uncertainties and the region in signal space. Uncertainties in the background generally have smaller effect on the coverage. A considerable smoothing of the coverage curves is observed. A software package is presented which allows fast calculation of the confidence intervals for a variety of assumptions on shape and size of systematic uncertainties for different nuisance paramete...

Multivoxel neurofeedback selectively modulates confidence without changing perceptual performance

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Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Kawato, Mitsuo; Lau, Hakwan

2016-01-01

A central controversy in metacognition studies concerns whether subjective confidence directly reflects the reliability of perceptual or cognitive processes, as suggested by normative models based on the assumption that neural computations are generally optimal. This view enjoys popularity in the computational and animal literatures, but it has also been suggested that confidence may depend on a late-stage estimation dissociable from perceptual processes. Yet, at least in humans, experimental tools have lacked the power to resolve these issues convincingly. Here, we overcome this difficulty by using the recently developed method of decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) to systematically manipulate multivoxel correlates of confidence in a frontoparietal network. Here we report that bi-directional changes in confidence do not affect perceptual accuracy. Further psychophysical analyses rule out accounts based on simple shifts in reporting strategy. Our results provide clear neuroscientific evidence for the systematic dissociation between confidence and perceptual performance, and thereby challenge current theoretical thinking. PMID:27976739

Improving Nurses' Peripheral Intravenous Catheter Insertion Knowledge, Confidence, and Skills Using a Simulation-Based Blended Learning Program

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Keleekai, Nowai L.; Schuster, Catherine A.; Murray, Connie L.; King, Mary Anne; Stahl, Brian R.; Labrozzi, Laura J.; Gallucci, Susan; LeClair, Matthew W.; Glover, Kevin R.

2016-01-01

Introduction Peripheral intravenous catheter (PIVC) insertion is one of the most common invasive procedures performed in a hospital, but most nurses receive little formal training in this area. Blended PIVC insertion training programs that incorporate deliberate simulated practice have the potential to improve clinical practice and patient care. Methods The study was a randomized, wait-list control group with crossover using nurses on three medical/surgical units. Baseline PIVC knowledge, confidence, and skills assessments were completed for both groups. The intervention group then received a 2-hour PIVC online course, followed by an 8-hour live training course using a synergistic mix of three simulation tools. Both groups were then reassessed. After crossover, the wait-list group received the same intervention and both groups were reassessed. Results At baseline, both groups were similar for knowledge, confidence, and skills. Compared with the wait-list group, the intervention group had significantly higher scores for knowledge, confidence, and skills upon completing the training program. After crossover, the wait-list group had similarly higher scores for knowledge, confidence, and skills than the intervention group. Between the immediate preintervention and postintervention periods, the intervention group improved scores for knowledge by 31%, skills by 24%, and decreased confidence by 0.5%, whereas the wait-list group improved scores for knowledge by 28%, confidence by 16%, and skills by 15%. Conclusions Results demonstrate significant improvements in nurses' knowledge, confidence, and skills with the use of a simulation-based blended learning program for PIVC insertion. Transferability of these findings from a simulated environment into clinical practice should be further explored. PMID:27504890

The Optimal Confidence Intervals for Agricultural Products’ Price Forecasts Based on Hierarchical Historical Errors

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Yi Wang

2016-12-01

Full Text Available With the levels of confidence and system complexity, interval forecasts and entropy analysis can deliver more information than point forecasts. In this paper, we take receivers’ demands as our starting point, use the trade-off model between accuracy and informativeness as the criterion to construct the optimal confidence interval, derive the theoretical formula of the optimal confidence interval and propose a practical and efficient algorithm based on entropy theory and complexity theory. In order to improve the estimation precision of the error distribution, the point prediction errors are STRATIFIED according to prices and the complexity of the system; the corresponding prediction error samples are obtained by the prices stratification; and the error distributions are estimated by the kernel function method and the stability of the system. In a stable and orderly environment for price forecasting, we obtain point prediction error samples by the weighted local region and RBF (Radial basis function neural network methods, forecast the intervals of the soybean meal and non-GMO (Genetically Modified Organism soybean continuous futures closing prices and implement unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage tests for the simulation results. The empirical results are compared from various interval evaluation indicators, different levels of noise, several target confidence levels and different point prediction methods. The analysis shows that the optimal interval construction method is better than the equal probability method and the shortest interval method and has good anti-noise ability with the reduction of system entropy; the hierarchical estimation error method can obtain higher accuracy and better interval estimation than the non-hierarchical method in a stable system.

Factorial-based response-surface modeling with confidence intervals for optimizing thermal-optical transmission analysis of atmospheric black carbon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conny, J.M.; Norris, G.A.; Gould, T.R.

2009-01-01

Thermal-optical transmission (TOT) analysis measures black carbon (BC) in atmospheric aerosol on a fibrous filter. The method pyrolyzes organic carbon (OC) and employs laser light absorption to distinguish BC from the pyrolyzed OC; however, the instrument does not necessarily separate the two physically. In addition, a comprehensive temperature protocol for the analysis based on the Beer-Lambert Law remains elusive. Here, empirical response-surface modeling was used to show how the temperature protocol in TOT analysis can be modified to distinguish pyrolyzed OC from BC based on the Beer-Lambert Law. We determined the apparent specific absorption cross sections for pyrolyzed OC (σ Char ) and BC (σ BC ), which accounted for individual absorption enhancement effects within the filter. Response-surface models of these cross sections were derived from a three-factor central-composite factorial experimental design: temperature and duration of the high-temperature step in the helium phase, and the heating increase in the helium-oxygen phase. The response surface for σ BC , which varied with instrument conditions, revealed a ridge indicating the correct conditions for OC pyrolysis in helium. The intersection of the σ BC and σ Char surfaces indicated the conditions where the cross sections were equivalent, satisfying an important assumption upon which the method relies. 95% confidence interval surfaces defined a confidence region for a range of pyrolysis conditions. Analyses of wintertime samples from Seattle, WA revealed a temperature between 830 deg. C and 850 deg. C as most suitable for the helium high-temperature step lasting 150 s. However, a temperature as low as 750 deg. C could not be rejected statistically

Confidence Intervals from Normalized Data: A correction to Cousineau (2005

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Richard D. Morey

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Presenting confidence intervals around means is a common method of expressing uncertainty in data. Loftus and Masson (1994 describe confidence intervals for means in within-subjects designs. These confidence intervals are based on the ANOVA mean squared error. Cousineau (2005 presents an alternative to the Loftus and Masson method, but his method produces confidence intervals that are smaller than those of Loftus and Masson. I show why this is the case and offer a simple correction that makes the expected size of Cousineau confidence intervals the same as that of Loftus and Masson confidence intervals.

The Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and Identification Accuracy: A New Synthesis.

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Wixted, John T; Wells, Gary L

2017-05-01

The U.S. legal system increasingly accepts the idea that the confidence expressed by an eyewitness who identified a suspect from a lineup provides little information as to the accuracy of that identification. There was a time when this pessimistic assessment was entirely reasonable because of the questionable eyewitness-identification procedures that police commonly employed. However, after more than 30 years of eyewitness-identification research, our understanding of how to properly conduct a lineup has evolved considerably, and the time seems ripe to ask how eyewitness confidence informs accuracy under more pristine testing conditions (e.g., initial, uncontaminated memory tests using fair lineups, with no lineup administrator influence, and with an immediate confidence statement). Under those conditions, mock-crime studies and police department field studies have consistently shown that, for adults, (a) confidence and accuracy are strongly related and (b) high-confidence suspect identifications are remarkably accurate. However, when certain non-pristine testing conditions prevail (e.g., when unfair lineups are used), the accuracy of even a high-confidence suspect ID is seriously compromised. Unfortunately, some jurisdictions have not yet made reforms that would create pristine testing conditions and, hence, our conclusions about the reliability of high-confidence identifications cannot yet be applied to those jurisdictions. However, understanding the information value of eyewitness confidence under pristine testing conditions can help the criminal justice system to simultaneously achieve both of its main objectives: to exonerate the innocent (by better appreciating that initial, low-confidence suspect identifications are error prone) and to convict the guilty (by better appreciating that initial, high-confidence suspect identifications are surprisingly accurate under proper testing conditions).

A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in community-based cluster randomization trials with a binary outcome.

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Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan

2016-04-01

Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith

Non-Asymptotic Confidence Sets for Circular Means

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Thomas Hotz

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The mean of data on the unit circle is defined as the minimizer of the average squared Euclidean distance to the data. Based on Hoeffding’s mass concentration inequalities, non-asymptotic confidence sets for circular means are constructed which are universal in the sense that they require no distributional assumptions. These are then compared with asymptotic confidence sets in simulations and for a real data set.

ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE

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Fernando Luis, Gache

2010-01-01

Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.

Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

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Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

2012-01-01

Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

Procedural confidence in hospital based practitioners: implications for the training and practice of doctors at all grades

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Tsagkaraki Petroula A

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Medical doctors routinely undertake a number of practical procedures and these should be performed competently. The UK Postgraduate Medical Education and Training Board (PMETB curriculum lists the procedures trainees should be competent in. We aimed to describe medical practitioner's confidence in their procedural skills, and to define which practical procedures are important in current medical practice. Methods A cross sectional observational study was performed measuring procedural confidence in 181 hospital practitioners at all grades from 2 centres in East Anglia, England. Results Both trainees and consultants provide significant service provision. SpR level doctors perform the widest range and the highest median number of procedures per year. Most consultants perform few if any procedures, however some perform a narrow range at high volume. Cumulative confidence for the procedures tested peaks in the SpR grade. Five key procedures (central line insertion, lumbar puncture, pleural aspiration, ascitic aspiration, and intercostal drain insertion are the most commonly performed, are seen as important generic skills, and correspond to the total number of procedures for which confidence can be maintained. Key determinants of confidence are gender, number of procedures performed in the previous year and total number of procedures performed. Conclusion The highest volume of service requirement is for six procedures. The procedural confidence is dependent upon gender, number of procedures performed in the previous year and total number of procedures performed. This has implications for those designing the training curriculum and with regards the move to shorten the duration of training.

Self Confidence Spillovers and Motivated Beliefs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Banerjee, Ritwik; Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Villeval, Marie Claire

that success when competing in a task increases the performers’ self-confidence and competitiveness in the subsequent task. We also find that such spillovers affect the self-confidence of low-status individuals more than that of high-status individuals. Receiving good news under Affirmative Action, however......Is success in a task used strategically by individuals to motivate their beliefs prior to taking action in a subsequent, unrelated, task? Also, is the distortion of beliefs reinforced for individuals who have lower status in society? Conducting an artefactual field experiment in India, we show...

Confidence-Based Data Association and Discriminative Deep Appearance Learning for Robust Online Multi-Object Tracking.

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Bae, Seung-Hwan; Yoon, Kuk-Jin

2018-03-01

Online multi-object tracking aims at estimating the tracks of multiple objects instantly with each incoming frame and the information provided up to the moment. It still remains a difficult problem in complex scenes, because of the large ambiguity in associating multiple objects in consecutive frames and the low discriminability between objects appearances. In this paper, we propose a robust online multi-object tracking method that can handle these difficulties effectively. We first define the tracklet confidence using the detectability and continuity of a tracklet, and decompose a multi-object tracking problem into small subproblems based on the tracklet confidence. We then solve the online multi-object tracking problem by associating tracklets and detections in different ways according to their confidence values. Based on this strategy, tracklets sequentially grow with online-provided detections, and fragmented tracklets are linked up with others without any iterative and expensive association steps. For more reliable association between tracklets and detections, we also propose a deep appearance learning method to learn a discriminative appearance model from large training datasets, since the conventional appearance learning methods do not provide rich representation that can distinguish multiple objects with large appearance variations. In addition, we combine online transfer learning for improving appearance discriminability by adapting the pre-trained deep model during online tracking. Experiments with challenging public datasets show distinct performance improvement over other state-of-the-arts batch and online tracking methods, and prove the effect and usefulness of the proposed methods for online multi-object tracking.

Political factors in the development and implementation of technology-based confidence-building measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steinberg, G.M.

1989-01-01

The second half of the 20th century has been characterized by the continuous development and improvement of weapons of mass destruction, including strategic bombers, missiles, chemical and biological agents, and of course, a variety of nuclear weapons. In contrast to the massive change in military capabilities brought about by the rapid development of science and technology, international relations is still dominated by relations between sovereign nation states and characterized by distrust and narrow interests. At the same time that scientific developments created the foundation for the nuclear arms race, however the scientific and technical community has also sought some antidotes. Technology-based confidence building measures (TBCBMS), designed to reduce international conflict and to prevent nuclear war, have been proposed by scientists from the US and the USSR. These TBCBMS have taken a number of forms such as cooperative research and development programs, joint panels and meetings of professional societies, and specially dedicated international forums. These have provided a meeting ground for the exchange of views among scientists from many different countries. In addition, a number of more direct forms of TBCBMS, such as satellite-based observation systems and IAEA nuclear safeguards, have national technical means of verification. More recently, there have been a number of proposals to apply many of these technologies to verification of conventional force reduction, arms control, and other confidence-building measures in context of regional conflicts in the Third World. An International Satellite Monitoring Agency has bee proposed to develop space-based technologies such as observation satellites to increase stability and prevent the outbreak of accidental war in regional contexts such as the Middle East

A Game-Based Virtualized Reality Approach for Simultaneous Rehabilitation of Motor Skill and Confidence

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Alasdair G. Thin

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Virtualized reality games offer highly interactive and engaging user experience and therefore game-based approaches (GBVR may have significant potential to enhance clinical rehabilitation practice as traditional therapeutic exercises are often repetitive and boring, reducing patient compliance. The aim of this study was to investigate if a rehabilitation training programme using GBVR could simultaneously improve both motor skill (MS and confidence (CON, as they are both important determinants of daily living and physical and social functioning. The study was performed using a nondominant hand motor deficit model in nonambidextrous healthy young adults, whereby dominant and nondominant arms acted as control and intervention conditions, respectively. GBVR training was performed using a commercially available tennis-based game. CON and MS were assessed by having each subject perform a comparable real-world motor task (RWMT before and after training. Baseline CON and MS for performing the RWMT were significantly lower for the nondominant hand and improved after GBVR training, whereas there were no changes in the dominant (control arm. These results demonstrate that by using a GBVR approach to address a MS deficit in a real-world task, improvements in both MS and CON can be facilitated and such approaches may help increase patient compliance.

A Threat- and Efficacy-Based Framework to Understand Confidence in Vaccines among the Public Health Workforce

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Lainie Rutkow

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM is an established threat- and efficacy-based behavioral framework for understanding health behaviors in the face of uncertain risk. A growing body of research has applied this model to understand these behaviors among the public health workforce. In this manuscript, we aim to explore the application of this framework to the public health workforce, with a novel focus on their confidence in vaccines and perceptions of vaccine injury compensation mechanisms. We characterize specific connections between EPPM’s threat and efficacy dimensions and relevant vaccine policy frameworks and highlight how these connections can usefully inform training interventions for public health workers to enhance their confidence in these vaccine policy measures.

A Hierarchical Method for Transient Stability Prediction of Power Systems Using the Confidence of a SVM-Based Ensemble Classifier

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Yanzhen Zhou

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Machine learning techniques have been widely used in transient stability prediction of power systems. When using the post-fault dynamic responses, it is difficult to draw a definite conclusion about how long the duration of response data used should be in order to balance the accuracy and speed. Besides, previous studies have the problem of lacking consideration for the confidence level. To solve these problems, a hierarchical method for transient stability prediction based on the confidence of ensemble classifier using multiple support vector machines (SVMs is proposed. Firstly, multiple datasets are generated by bootstrap sampling, then features are randomly picked up to compress the datasets. Secondly, the confidence indices are defined and multiple SVMs are built based on these generated datasets. By synthesizing the probabilistic outputs of multiple SVMs, the prediction results and confidence of the ensemble classifier will be obtained. Finally, different ensemble classifiers with different response times are built to construct different layers of the proposed hierarchical scheme. The simulation results show that the proposed hierarchical method can balance the accuracy and rapidity of the transient stability prediction. Moreover, the hierarchical method can reduce the misjudgments of unstable instances and cooperate with the time domain simulation to insure the security and stability of power systems.

Raising Confident Kids

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... First Aid & Safety Doctors & Hospitals Videos Recipes for Kids Kids site Sitio para niños How the Body ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Raising Confident Kids KidsHealth / For Parents / Raising Confident Kids What's in ...

Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth: retention of knowledge, skills, and confidence nine months after obstetric simulation-based training.

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Nelissen, Ellen; Ersdal, Hege; Mduma, Estomih; Evjen-Olsen, Bjørg; Broerse, Jacqueline; van Roosmalen, Jos; Stekelenburg, Jelle

2015-08-25

It is important to know the decay of knowledge, skills, and confidence over time to provide evidence-based guidance on timing of follow-up training. Studies addressing retention of simulation-based education reveal mixed results. The aim of this study was to measure the level of knowledge, skills, and confidence before, immediately after, and nine months after simulation-based training in obstetric care in order to understand the impact of training on these components. An educational intervention study was carried out in 2012 in a rural referral hospital in Northern Tanzania. Eighty-nine healthcare workers of different cadres were trained in "Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth", which addresses basic delivery skills including active management of third stage of labour and management of postpartum haemorrhage (PPH). Knowledge, skills, and confidence were tested before, immediately after, and nine months after training amongst 38 healthcare workers. Knowledge was tested by completing a written 26-item multiple-choice questionnaire. Skills were tested in two simulated scenarios "basic delivery" and "management of PPH". Confidence in active management of third stage of labour, management of PPH, determination of completeness of the placenta, bimanual uterine compression, and accessing advanced care was self-assessed using a written 5-item questionnaire. Mean knowledge scores increased immediately after training from 70 % to 77 %, but decreased close to pre-training levels (72 %) at nine-month follow-up (p = 0.386) (all p-levels are compared to pre-training). The mean score in basic delivery skills increased after training from 43 % to 51 %, and was 49 % after nine months (p = 0.165). Mean scores of management of PPH increased from 39 % to 51 % and were sustained at 50 % at nine months (p = 0.003). Bimanual uterine compression skills increased from 19 % before, to 43 % immediately after, to 48 % nine months after training (p = 0

Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market

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Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Rego, Henio H. A.; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H. Eugene

2017-01-01

Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index—both generated by our model—are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant. PMID:28231255

Individuals with high obsessive-compulsive tendencies or undermined confidence rely more on external proxies to access their internal states.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhongming; Wang, Mengyun; Miao, Xiaocui; Li, Yijuan; Hitchman, Glenn; Yuan, Zhen

2017-03-01

The Seeking Proxies for Internal States (SPIS) hypothesis predicts that obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is associated with a deficit in subjective convictions, which may lead to a reliance on external substitutes for the perceptions of an individual's internal states. Two well-designed studies were performed for the present work that adopted a false bio-feedback procedure in a muscle tension task to examine the SPIS hypothesis. The false bio-feedback paradigm was used to investigate our hypothesis. NeXus-10 Mark II hardware and V2011 BioTrace + software (Mind Media B.V., Herten, Netherlands) were utilized to measure the muscle tension of the flexor carpiulnaris muscle, which characterized the target's internal state. In addition, false EMG changes were recorded and displayed on a computer monitor and were considered external proxies. Study 1 demonstrated that the participants with high obsessive-compulsive (OC) tendencies were more affected by the false bio-feedback and exhibited lower confidence in their judgments regarding their muscle tension compared with the participants with low OC tendencies. These findings indicate that subjects with high OC tendencies were more influenced by self-perception effects. In contrast, the subjects in the undermined confidence group in Study 2 were more easily influenced by the false bio-feedback compared with the control group, which suggests that the subjects in the undermined confidence group were more affected by self-perception effects. We did not combine the undermined confidence with OC tendencies or OCD symptoms in our paradigm to investigate their joint effects on self-perception. Our findings provide further evidence that supports the SPIS hypothesis, which indicates that OC tendencies and the confidence in an individual's recognition of internal states appear to have similar effects on the assessment of internal states and reliance on proxies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Approach and development strategy for an agent-based model of economic confidence.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sprigg, James A.; Pryor, Richard J.; Jorgensen, Craig Reed

2004-08-01

We are extending the existing features of Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool, and introducing new features to simulate the role of confidence in economic activity. The new model is built from a collection of autonomous agents that represent households, firms, and other relevant entities like financial exchanges and governmental authorities. We simultaneously model several interrelated markets, including those for labor, products, stocks, and bonds. We also model economic tradeoffs, such as decisions of households and firms regarding spending, savings, and investment. In this paper, we review some of the basic principles and model components and describe our approach and development strategy for emulating consumer, investor, and business confidence. The model of confidence is explored within the context of economic disruptions, such as those resulting from disasters or terrorist events.

Impaired action self-monitoring and cognitive confidence among ultra-high risk for psychosis and first-episode psychosis patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Gawęda, Ł; Li, E; Lavoie, S; Whitford, T J; Moritz, S; Nelson, B

2018-01-01

Self-monitoring biases and overconfidence in incorrect judgments have been suggested as playing a role in schizophrenia spectrum disorders. Little is known about whether self-monitoring biases may contribute to early risk factors for psychosis. In this study, action self-monitoring (i.e., discrimination between imagined and performed actions) was investigated, along with confidence in judgments among ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis individuals and first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients. Thirty-six UHR for psychosis individuals, 25 FEP patients and 33 healthy controls (CON) participated in the study. Participants were assessed with the Action memory task. Simple actions were presented to participants verbally or non-verbally. Some actions were required to be physically performed and others were imagined. Participants were asked whether the action was presented verbally or non-verbally (action presentation type discrimination), and whether the action was performed or imagined (self-monitoring). Confidence self-ratings related to self-monitoring responses were obtained. The analysis of self-monitoring revealed that both UHR and FEP groups misattributed imagined actions as being performed (i.e., self-monitoring errors) significantly more often than the CON group. There were no differences regarding performed actions as being imagined. UHR and FEP groups made their false responses with higher confidence in their judgments than the CON group. There were no group differences regarding discrimination between the types of actions presented (verbal vs non-verbal). A specific type of self-monitoring bias (i.e., misattributing imagined actions with performed actions), accompanied by high confidence in this judgment, may be a risk factor for the subsequent development of a psychotic disorder. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp improves trainee confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Allan, Catherine K; Tannous, Paul; DeWitt, Elizabeth; Farias, Michael; Mansfield, Laura; Ronai, Christina; Schidlow, David; Sanders, Stephen P; Lock, James E; Newburger, Jane W; Brown, David W

2016-12-01

Introduction New paediatric cardiology trainees are required to rapidly assimilate knowledge and gain clinical skills to which they have limited or no exposure during residency. The Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp (PCBC) at Boston Children's Hospital was designed to provide incoming fellows with an intensive exposure to congenital cardiac pathology and a broad overview of major areas of paediatric cardiology practice. The PCBC curriculum was designed by core faculty in cardiac pathology, echocardiography, electrophysiology, interventional cardiology, exercise physiology, and cardiac intensive care. Individual faculty contributed learning objectives, which were refined by fellowship directors and used to build a programme of didactics, hands-on/simulation-based activities, and self-guided learning opportunities. A total of 16 incoming fellows participated in the 4-week boot camp, with no concurrent clinical responsibilities, over 2 years. On the basis of pre- and post-PCBC surveys, 80% of trainees strongly agreed that they felt more prepared for clinical responsibilities, and a similar percentage felt that PCBC should be offered to future incoming fellows. Fellows showed significant increase in their confidence in all specific knowledge and skills related to the learning objectives. Fellows rated hands-on learning experiences and simulation-based exercises most highly. We describe a novel 4-week-long boot camp designed to expose incoming paediatric cardiology fellows to the broad spectrum of knowledge and skills required for the practice of paediatric cardiology. The experience increased trainee confidence and sense of preparedness to begin fellowship-related responsibilities. Given that highly interactive activities were rated most highly, boot camps in paediatric cardiology should strongly emphasise these elements.

Identification of high-confidence RNA regulatory elements by combinatorial classification of RNA-protein binding sites.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yang Eric; Xiao, Mu; Shi, Binbin; Yang, Yu-Cheng T; Wang, Dong; Wang, Fei; Marcia, Marco; Lu, Zhi John

2017-09-08

Crosslinking immunoprecipitation sequencing (CLIP-seq) technologies have enabled researchers to characterize transcriptome-wide binding sites of RNA-binding protein (RBP) with high resolution. We apply a soft-clustering method, RBPgroup, to various CLIP-seq datasets to group together RBPs that specifically bind the same RNA sites. Such combinatorial clustering of RBPs helps interpret CLIP-seq data and suggests functional RNA regulatory elements. Furthermore, we validate two RBP-RBP interactions in cell lines. Our approach links proteins and RNA motifs known to possess similar biochemical and cellular properties and can, when used in conjunction with additional experimental data, identify high-confidence RBP groups and their associated RNA regulatory elements.

Nurse leader certification preparation: how are confidence levels impacted?

Science.gov (United States)

Junger, Stacey; Trinkle, Nicole; Hall, Norma

2016-09-01

The aim was to examine the effect of a nurse leader certification preparation course on the confidence levels of the participants. Limited literature is available regarding nurse leader development and certifications. Barriers exist related to lack of confidence, high cost, time and lack of access to a preparation course. Nurse leaders (n = 51) completed a pre- and post-survey addressing confidence levels of participants related to the topics addressed in the nurse leader certification preparation course. There were statistically significant increases in confidence levels related to all course content for the participants. At the time of the study, there were 31.4% of participants intending to sit for the certification examination, and 5 of the 51 participants successfully sat for and passed the examination. A nurse leader certification preparation course increases confidence levels of the participants and removes barriers, thereby increasing the number of certifications obtained. The health-care climate is increasingly complex and nurse leaders need the expertise to navigate the ever-changing health-care environment. Certification in a specialty, such as leadership, serves as an indicator of a high level of competence in the field. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Web-Based Parenting Support: Development of the COPING Confident Parenting Programme

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Judith Hutchings

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Parents have the most significant impact on children’s development and the key parenting factors that promote child development and wellbeing are well known. Furthermore, many behavioural, social and emotional problems in children are associated with poor parenting practices. Parenting interventions that address parental skill deficits and teach positive parenting principles based on social learning theory are effective and are the recommended treatment for conduct disorder. Alongside the development of treatment programmes, universal parenting programmes have been developed; many present the same core parenting principles but their rationales vary from promoting children’s development to addressing common behavioural challenges and the evidence for these programmes is less well established. Most parents now have internet access and are making daily use of it, including seeking advice on parenting matters but that advice is often anecdotal and lacking evidence. In the meantime, a small number of web-based programmes, including parenting programmes have been developed and evaluated. This paper summarises the rationale for web-based universal programmes to support parents and briefly describes the history, content and a summary of the initial research on the COPING (confident parent internet guide programme developed by the authors. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research directions.

Validation of self - confidence scale for clean urinary intermittent self - catheterization for patients and health - caregivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Biaziolo, Cintia Fernandes Baccarin; Mazzo, Alessandra; Martins, José Carlos Amado; Jorge, Beatriz Maria; Batista, Rui Carlos Negrão; Tucci, Silvio Júnior

2017-01-01

To validate a measurement instrument for clean intermittent self-catheterization for patients and health-caregivers. Methodological study of instrument validation performed at a Rehabilitation Center in a University hospital for patients submitted to clean intermittent self-catheterization and their health-caregivers. Following ethical criteria, data were collected during interview with nurse staff using a Likert question form containing 16 items with 5 points each: "no confidence"=1, "little confidence"=2, "confident"=3, "very confident"=4 and "completely confident"=5. Questionnaire called "Self- Confident Scale for Clean Intermittent Self-catheterization" (SCSCISC) was constructed based on literature and previously validated (appearance and content). The instrument was validated by 122 patients and 119 health-caregivers, in a proportion of 15:1. It was observed a good linear association and sample adequacy KMO 0.931 and X2=2881.63, p<0.001. Anti-image matrix showed high values at diagonal suggesting inclusion of all factors. Screen plot analysis showed a suggestion of items maintenance in a single set. It was observed high correlation of all items with the total, alpha-Cronbach 0.944. The same results were obtained in subsamples of patients and health-caregivers. The instrument showed good psychometric adequacy corroborating its use for evaluation of self-confidence during clean intermittent self-catheterization. Copyright® by the International Brazilian Journal of Urology.

Psychometric properties of the communication Confidence Rating Scale for Aphasia (CCRSA): phase 1.

Science.gov (United States)

Cherney, Leora R; Babbitt, Edna M; Semik, Patrick; Heinemann, Allen W

2011-01-01

Confidence is a construct that has not been explored previously in aphasia research. We developed the Communication Confidence Rating Scale for Aphasia (CCRSA) to assess confidence in communicating in a variety of activities and evaluated its psychometric properties using rating scale (Rasch) analysis. The CCRSA was administered to 21 individuals with aphasia before and after participation in a computer-based language therapy study. Person reliability of the 8-item CCRSA was .77. The 5-category rating scale demonstrated monotonic increases in average measures from low to high ratings. However, one item ("I follow news, sports, stories on TV/movies") misfit the construct defined by the other items (mean square infit = 1.69, item-measure correlation = .41). Deleting this item improved reliability to .79; the 7 remaining items demonstrated excellent fit to the underlying construct, although there was a modest ceiling effect in this sample. Pre- to posttreatment changes on the 7-item CCRSA measure were statistically significant using a paired samples t test. Findings support the reliability and sensitivity of the CCRSA in assessing participants' self-report of communication confidence. Further evaluation of communication confidence is required with larger and more diverse samples.

Diverse interpretations of confidence building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Macintosh, J.

1998-01-01

This paper explores the variety of operational understandings associated with the term 'confidence building'. Collectively, these understandings constitute what should be thought of as a 'family' of confidence building approaches. This unacknowledged and generally unappreciated proliferation of operational understandings that function under the rubric of confidence building appears to be an impediment to effective policy. The paper's objective is to analyze these different understandings, stressing the important differences in their underlying assumptions. In the process, the paper underlines the need for the international community to clarify its collective thinking about what it means when it speaks of 'confidence building'. Without enhanced clarity, it will be unnecessarily difficult to employ the confidence building approach effectively due to the lack of consistent objectives and common operating assumptions. Although it is not the intention of this paper to promote a particular account of confidence building, dissecting existing operational understandings should help to identify whether there are fundamental elements that define what might be termed 'authentic' confidence building. Implicit here is the view that some operational understandings of confidence building may diverge too far from consensus models to count as meaningful members of the confidence building family. (author)

Chinese Management Research Needs Self-Confidence but not Over-confidence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Xin; Ma, Li

2018-01-01

Chinese management research aims to contribute to global management knowledge by offering rigorous and innovative theories and practical recommendations both for managing in China and outside. However, two seemingly opposite directions that researchers are taking could prove detrimental......-confidence, limiting theoretical innovation and practical relevance. Yet going in the other direction of overly indigenous research reflects over-confidence, often isolating the Chinese management research from the mainstream academia and at times, even becoming anti-science. A more integrated approach of conducting...... to the healthy development of Chinese management research. We argue that the two directions share a common ground that lies in the mindset regarding the confidence in the work on and from China. One direction of simply following the American mainstream on academic rigor demonstrates a lack of self...

Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Settlemyer, Bradley W [ORNL; Hodson, Stephen W [ORNL; Kuehn, Jeffery A [ORNL; Poole, Stephen W [ORNL

2011-04-01

Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.

Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth: retention of knowledge, skills, and confidence nine months after obstetric simulation-based training

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nelissen, E.J.T.; Ersdal, H.; Mduma, E.; Evjen-Olsen, B.; Broerse, J.E.W.; van Roosmalen, J.; Stekelenburg, J.

2015-01-01

Background: It is important to know the decay of knowledge, skills, and confidence over time to provide evidence-based guidance on timing of follow-up training. Studies addressing retention of simulation-based education reveal mixed results. The aim of this study was to measure the level of

Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth : retention of knowledge, skills, and confidence nine months after obstetric simulation-based training

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nelissen, Ellen; Ersdal, Hege; Mduma, Estomih; Evjen-Olsen, Bjorg; Broerse, Jacqueline; van Roosmalen, Jos; Stekelenburg, Jelle

2015-01-01

Background: It is important to know the decay of knowledge, skills, and confidence over time to provide evidence-based guidance on timing of follow-up training. Studies addressing retention of simulation-based education reveal mixed results. The aim of this study was to measure the level of

Confidence Limits for the Indirect Effect: Distribution of the Product and Resampling Methods

Science.gov (United States)

MacKinnon, David P.; Lockwood, Chondra M.; Williams, Jason

2010-01-01

The most commonly used method to test an indirect effect is to divide the estimate of the indirect effect by its standard error and compare the resulting z statistic with a critical value from the standard normal distribution. Confidence limits for the indirect effect are also typically based on critical values from the standard normal distribution. This article uses a simulation study to demonstrate that confidence limits are imbalanced because the distribution of the indirect effect is normal only in special cases. Two alternatives for improving the performance of confidence limits for the indirect effect are evaluated: (a) a method based on the distribution of the product of two normal random variables, and (b) resampling methods. In Study 1, confidence limits based on the distribution of the product are more accurate than methods based on an assumed normal distribution but confidence limits are still imbalanced. Study 2 demonstrates that more accurate confidence limits are obtained using resampling methods, with the bias-corrected bootstrap the best method overall. PMID:20157642

The idiosyncratic nature of confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Navajas, Joaquin; Hindocha, Chandni; Foda, Hebah; Keramati, Mehdi; Latham, Peter E; Bahrami, Bahador

2017-11-01

Confidence is the 'feeling of knowing' that accompanies decision making. Bayesian theory proposes that confidence is a function solely of the perceived probability of being correct. Empirical research has suggested, however, that different individuals may perform different computations to estimate confidence from uncertain evidence. To test this hypothesis, we collected confidence reports in a task where subjects made categorical decisions about the mean of a sequence. We found that for most individuals, confidence did indeed reflect the perceived probability of being correct. However, in approximately half of them, confidence also reflected a different probabilistic quantity: the perceived uncertainty in the estimated variable. We found that the contribution of both quantities was stable over weeks. We also observed that the influence of the perceived probability of being correct was stable across two tasks, one perceptual and one cognitive. Overall, our findings provide a computational interpretation of individual differences in human confidence.

Methodology for building confidence measures

Science.gov (United States)

Bramson, Aaron L.

2004-04-01

This paper presents a generalized methodology for propagating known or estimated levels of individual source document truth reliability to determine the confidence level of a combined output. Initial document certainty levels are augmented by (i) combining the reliability measures of multiply sources, (ii) incorporating the truth reinforcement of related elements, and (iii) incorporating the importance of the individual elements for determining the probability of truth for the whole. The result is a measure of confidence in system output based on the establishing of links among the truth values of inputs. This methodology was developed for application to a multi-component situation awareness tool under development at the Air Force Research Laboratory in Rome, New York. Determining how improvements in data quality and the variety of documents collected affect the probability of a correct situational detection helps optimize the performance of the tool overall.

Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Daniel B

2007-02-01

Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.

Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Younes, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ratkiewicz, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ressler, J. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2017-09-28

Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the ²³⁵U(n, f) and ²³⁹Pu (n, f) cross sections.

Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation

Science.gov (United States)

Steve P. Verrill; Richard A. Johnson

2007-01-01

For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations. To develop these confidence bounds and test, we first establish that estimators based on Newton steps from n-...

Reclaim your creative confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

2012-12-01

Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.

The reliability of prayer-based self-efficacy scale to assess self-confidence of Muslims with low back pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Obaidi, Saud; Wall, James C; Mulekar, Madhuri S; Al-Mutairie, Rebecca

2012-06-01

Low back pain (LBP) may challenge an individual's self-confidence to perform usual daily activities such as Islamic daily prayer. Existing self-efficacy scales may not be appropriate to assess individual's self-confidence to perform Islamic prayers. This study aimed to develop a scale to assess self-confidence to prepare and perform Islamic prayer in the presence of LBP, the Islamic Prayer-based Self-efficacy Scale (IpbSeS), and to determine its consistency. The IpbSeS consists of three parts: pre-prayer preparation, getting to and from the mosque, and positions and movements during prayer. On a scale of 0 to 6, 0 indicates 'not at all confident' and 6 'fully confident'. Sixty individuals with LBP gave their responses on two different visits. Pain intensity was assessed by the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), and the pain intensity changes were assessed using a seven-point global patient rating scale. Descriptive statistics, Pearson's correlation coefficient, Wilcoxon test and t-test were used in the analysis (alpha set at 0.05). VAS scores did not differ significantly between visits. No association was found between VAS and age (r = 0.039, p = 0.77) and between VAS and body mass index (BMI; r = 0.06, p = 0. 67). All 28 questions have consistent responses on two visits (0.75 ≤ r ≤ 0.99, p Muslims in the presence of LBP to pray. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Confidence Hills Mineralogy and Chemin Results from Base of Mt. Sharp, Pahrump Hills, Gale Crater, Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Cavanagh, P. D.; Bish, D. L.; Blake, D. F.; Vaniman, D. T.; Morris, R. V.; Ming, D. W.; Rampe, E. B.; Achilles, C. N.; Chipera, S. J.; Treiman, A. H.;

Confidence limits for small numbers of events in astrophysical data

Science.gov (United States)

Gehrels, N.

1986-01-01

The calculation of limits for small numbers of astronomical counts is based on standard equations derived from Poisson and binomial statistics; although the equations are straightforward, their direct use is cumbersome and involves both table-interpolations and several mathematical operations. Convenient tables and approximate formulae are here presented for confidence limits which are based on such Poisson and binomial statistics. The limits in the tables are given for all confidence levels commonly used in astrophysics.

LitPathExplorer: a confidence-based visual text analytics tool for exploring literature-enriched pathway models.

Science.gov (United States)

Soto, Axel J; Zerva, Chrysoula; Batista-Navarro, Riza; Ananiadou, Sophia

2018-04-15

Pathway models are valuable resources that help us understand the various mechanisms underpinning complex biological processes. Their curation is typically carried out through manual inspection of published scientific literature to find information relevant to a model, which is a laborious and knowledge-intensive task. Furthermore, models curated manually cannot be easily updated and maintained with new evidence extracted from the literature without automated support. We have developed LitPathExplorer, a visual text analytics tool that integrates advanced text mining, semi-supervised learning and interactive visualization, to facilitate the exploration and analysis of pathway models using statements (i.e. events) extracted automatically from the literature and organized according to levels of confidence. LitPathExplorer supports pathway modellers and curators alike by: (i) extracting events from the literature that corroborate existing models with evidence; (ii) discovering new events which can update models; and (iii) providing a confidence value for each event that is automatically computed based on linguistic features and article metadata. Our evaluation of event extraction showed a precision of 89% and a recall of 71%. Evaluation of our confidence measure, when used for ranking sampled events, showed an average precision ranging between 61 and 73%, which can be improved to 95% when the user is involved in the semi-supervised learning process. Qualitative evaluation using pair analytics based on the feedback of three domain experts confirmed the utility of our tool within the context of pathway model exploration. LitPathExplorer is available at http://nactem.ac.uk/LitPathExplorer_BI/. sophia.ananiadou@manchester.ac.uk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Predictors of Willingness to Read in English: Testing a Model Based on Possible Selves and Self-Confidence

Science.gov (United States)

Khajavy, Gholam Hassan; Ghonsooly, Behzad

2017-01-01

The aim of the present study is twofold. First, it tests a model of willingness to read (WTR) based on L2 motivation and communication confidence (communication anxiety and perceived communicative competence). Second, it applies the recent theory of L2 motivation proposed by Dörnyei [2005. "The Psychology of Language Learner: Individual…

Confidence Intervals: From tests of statistical significance to confidence intervals, range hypotheses and substantial effects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dominic Beaulieu-Prévost

2006-03-01

Full Text Available For the last 50 years of research in quantitative social sciences, the empirical evaluation of scientific hypotheses has been based on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis. However, more than 300 articles demonstrated that this method was problematic. In summary, null hypothesis testing (NHT is unfalsifiable, its results depend directly on sample size and the null hypothesis is both improbable and not plausible. Consequently, alternatives to NHT such as confidence intervals (CI and measures of effect size are starting to be used in scientific publications. The purpose of this article is, first, to provide the conceptual tools necessary to implement an approach based on confidence intervals, and second, to briefly demonstrate why such an approach is an interesting alternative to an approach based on NHT. As demonstrated in the article, the proposed CI approach avoids most problems related to a NHT approach and can often improve the scientific and contextual relevance of the statistical interpretations by testing range hypotheses instead of a point hypothesis and by defining the minimal value of a substantial effect. The main advantage of such a CI approach is that it replaces the notion of statistical power by an easily interpretable three-value logic (probable presence of a substantial effect, probable absence of a substantial effect and probabilistic undetermination. The demonstration includes a complete example.

Building public confidence in the world's nuclear industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duncan, C.D.

1996-01-01

Public confidence in the nuclear industry requires two things, which are trust and understanding. Trust is an emotional response based upon an instinctive reaction. Understanding, on the other hand, is an intellectual response based upon facts. To gain public confidence, both of these levels must be communicated and proactive strategies must be implemented to do this. To achieve this objective will require confidence and courage in communication programs. Each company operating in the nuclear sector must be proactive in building its individual reputation and must not retreat from controversy. Similarly, each industry body must continue the Herculean task of building understanding. The nuclear industry has powerful arguments. ICI, BP or Ford did not achieve their licences to operate by keeping their heads down, they achieved their current market positions by building a positive corporate reputation within their respective industrial contexts over many decades. In order to achieve a similar position for the nuclear industry and the companies, their examples must be followed. If it is continued to 'keep the heads down' in the trenches, public opinion will surely bury within it. (G.K.)

Cadaver-Based Simulation Increases Resident Confidence, Initial Exposure to Fundamental Techniques, and May Augment Operative Autonomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Steven C; Fisher, Jeremy G; Delman, Keith A; Hinman, Johanna M; Srinivasan, Jahnavi K

Surgical simulation is an important adjunct in surgical education. The majority of operative procedures can be simplified to core components. This study aimed to quantify a cadaver-based simulation course utility in improving exposure to fundamental maneuvers, resident and attending confidence in trainee capability, and if this led to earlier operative independence. A list of fundamental surgical procedures was established by a faculty panel. Residents were assigned to a group led by a chief resident. Residents performed skills on cadavers appropriate for PGY level. A video-recorded examination where they narrated and demonstrated a task independently was then graded by attendings using standardized rubrics. Participants completed surveys regarding improvements in knowledge and confidence. The course was conducted at the Emory University School of Medicine and the T3 Laboratories in Atlanta, GA. A total of 133 residents and 41 attendings participated in the course. 133 (100%) participating residents and 32 (78%) attendings completed surveys. Resident confidence in completing the assigned skill independently increased from 3 (2-3) to 4 (3-4), p 80%), p < 0.04. Attendings were more likely to grant autonomy in the operating room after this exercise (4 [3-5]). A cadaveric skills course focused on fundamental maneuvers with objective confirmation of success is a viable adjunct to clinical operative experience. Residents were formally exposed to fundamental surgical maneuvers earlier as a result of this course. This activity improved both resident and attending confidence in trainee operative skill, resulting in increased attending willingness to grant a higher level of autonomy in the operating room. Copyright © 2016 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A systematic review of maternal confidence for physiologic birth: characteristics of prenatal care and confidence measurement.

Science.gov (United States)

Avery, Melissa D; Saftner, Melissa A; Larson, Bridget; Weinfurter, Elizabeth V

2014-01-01

Because a focus on physiologic labor and birth has reemerged in recent years, care providers have the opportunity in the prenatal period to help women increase confidence in their ability to give birth without unnecessary interventions. However, most research has only examined support for women during labor. The purpose of this systematic review was to examine the research literature for information about prenatal care approaches that increase women's confidence for physiologic labor and birth and tools to measure that confidence. Studies were reviewed that explored any element of a pregnant woman's interaction with her prenatal care provider that helped build confidence in her ability to labor and give birth. Timing of interaction with pregnant women included during pregnancy, labor and birth, and the postpartum period. In addition, we looked for studies that developed a measure of women's confidence related to labor and birth. Outcome measures included confidence or similar concepts, descriptions of components of prenatal care contributing to maternal confidence for birth, and reliability and validity of tools measuring confidence. The search of MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Scopus databases provided a total of 893 citations. After removing duplicates and articles that did not meet inclusion criteria, 6 articles were included in the review. Three relate to women's confidence for labor during the prenatal period, and 3 describe tools to measure women's confidence for birth. Research about enhancing women's confidence for labor and birth was limited to qualitative studies. Results suggest that women desire information during pregnancy and want to use that information to participate in care decisions in a relationship with a trusted provider. Further research is needed to develop interventions to help midwives and physicians enhance women's confidence in their ability to give birth and to develop a tool to measure confidence for use during prenatal care. © 2014 by

A confidence metric for using neurobiological feedback in actor-critic reinforcement learning based brain-machine interfaces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Noeline Wilhelmina Prins

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Brain-Machine Interfaces (BMIs can be used to restore function in people living with paralysis. Current BMIs require extensive calibration that increase the set-up times and external inputs for decoder training that may be difficult to produce in paralyzed individuals. Both these factors have presented challenges in transitioning the technology from research environments to activities of daily living (ADL. For BMIs to be seamlessly used in ADL, these issues should be handled with minimal external input thus reducing the need for a technician/caregiver to calibrate the system. Reinforcement Learning (RL based BMIs are a good tool to be used when there is no external training signal and can provide an adaptive modality to train BMI decoders. However, RL based BMIs are sensitive to the feedback provided to adapt the BMI. In actor-critic BMIs, this feedback is provided by the critic and the overall system performance is limited by the critic accuracy. In this work, we developed an adaptive BMI that could handle inaccuracies in the critic feedback in an effort to produce more accurate RL based BMIs. We developed a confidence measure, which indicated how appropriate the feedback is for updating the decoding parameters of the actor. The results show that with the new update formulation, the critic accuracy is no longer a limiting factor for the overall performance. We tested and validated the system on three different data sets: synthetic data generated by an Izhikevich neural spiking model, synthetic data with a Gaussian noise distribution, and data collected from a non-human primate engaged in a reaching task. All results indicated that the system with the critic confidence built in always outperformed the system without the critic confidence. Results of this study suggest the potential application of the technique in developing an autonomous BMI that does not need an external signal for training or extensive calibration.

Growing confidence, building skills | IDRC - International ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

In 2012 Rashid explored the influence of think tanks on policy in Bangladesh, as well as their relationships with international donors and media. In 2014, he explored two-way student exchanges between Canadian and ... his IDRC experience “gave me the confidence to conduct high quality research in social sciences.”.

Improving Nurses' Peripheral Intravenous Catheter Insertion Knowledge, Confidence, and Skills Using a Simulation-Based Blended Learning Program: A Randomized Trial.

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Keleekai, Nowai L; Schuster, Catherine A; Murray, Connie L; King, Mary Anne; Stahl, Brian R; Labrozzi, Laura J; Gallucci, Susan; LeClair, Matthew W; Glover, Kevin R

2016-12-01

Peripheral intravenous catheter (PIVC) insertion is one of the most common invasive procedures performed in a hospital, but most nurses receive little formal training in this area. Blended PIVC insertion training programs that incorporate deliberate simulated practice have the potential to improve clinical practice and patient care. The study was a randomized, wait-list control group with crossover using nurses on three medical/surgical units. Baseline PIVC knowledge, confidence, and skills assessments were completed for both groups. The intervention group then received a 2-hour PIVC online course, followed by an 8-hour live training course using a synergistic mix of three simulation tools. Both groups were then reassessed. After crossover, the wait-list group received the same intervention and both groups were reassessed. At baseline, both groups were similar for knowledge, confidence, and skills. Compared with the wait-list group, the intervention group had significantly higher scores for knowledge, confidence, and skills upon completing the training program. After crossover, the wait-list group had similarly higher scores for knowledge, confidence, and skills than the intervention group. Between the immediate preintervention and postintervention periods, the intervention group improved scores for knowledge by 31%, skills by 24%, and decreased confidence by 0.5%, whereas the wait-list group improved scores for knowledge by 28%, confidence by 16%, and skills by 15%. Results demonstrate significant improvements in nurses' knowledge, confidence, and skills with the use of a simulation-based blended learning program for PIVC insertion. Transferability of these findings from a simulated environment into clinical practice should be further explored.

Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey

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Lorenz, Jan

Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.

Fechner’s law in metacognition: a quantitative model of visual working memory confidence

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van den Berg, Ronald; Yoo, Aspen H.; Ma, Wei Ji

2016-01-01

Although visual working memory (VWM) has been studied extensively, it is unknown how people form confidence judgments about their memories. Peirce (1878) speculated that Fechner’s law – which states that sensation is proportional to the logarithm of stimulus intensity – might apply to confidence reports. Based on this idea, we hypothesize that humans map the precision of their VWM contents to a confidence rating through Fechner’s law. We incorporate this hypothesis into the best available model of VWM encoding and fit it to data from a delayed-estimation experiment. The model provides an excellent account of human confidence rating distributions as well as the relation between performance and confidence. Moreover, the best-fitting mapping in a model with a highly flexible mapping closely resembles the logarithmic mapping, suggesting that no alternative mapping exists that accounts better for the data than Fechner's law. We propose a neural implementation of the model and find that this model also fits the behavioral data well. Furthermore, we find that jointly fitting memory errors and confidence ratings boosts the power to distinguish previously proposed VWM encoding models by a factor of 5.99 compared to fitting only memory errors. Finally, we show that Fechner's law also accounts for metacognitive judgments in a word recognition memory task, which is a first indication that it may be a general law in metacognition. Our work presents the first model to jointly account for errors and confidence ratings in VWM and could lay the groundwork for understanding the computational mechanisms of metacognition. PMID:28221087

Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?

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Mirjana Čižmešija

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.

Growth Estimators and Confidence Intervals for the Mean of Negative Binomial Random Variables with Unknown Dispersion

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David Shilane

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The negative binomial distribution becomes highly skewed under extreme dispersion. Even at moderately large sample sizes, the sample mean exhibits a heavy right tail. The standard normal approximation often does not provide adequate inferences about the data's expected value in this setting. In previous work, we have examined alternative methods of generating confidence intervals for the expected value. These methods were based upon Gamma and Chi Square approximations or tail probability bounds such as Bernstein's inequality. We now propose growth estimators of the negative binomial mean. Under high dispersion, zero values are likely to be overrepresented in the data. A growth estimator constructs a normal-style confidence interval by effectively removing a small, predetermined number of zeros from the data. We propose growth estimators based upon multiplicative adjustments of the sample mean and direct removal of zeros from the sample. These methods do not require estimating the nuisance dispersion parameter. We will demonstrate that the growth estimators' confidence intervals provide improved coverage over a wide range of parameter values and asymptotically converge to the sample mean. Interestingly, the proposed methods succeed despite adding both bias and variance to the normal approximation.

Sources of sport confidence, imagery type and performance among competitive athletes: the mediating role of sports confidence.

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Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J

2015-01-01

This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.

Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

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Steve Verrill

2003-01-01

This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

Machine learning classification with confidence: application of transductive conformal predictors to MRI-based diagnostic and prognostic markers in depression.

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Nouretdinov, Ilia; Costafreda, Sergi G; Gammerman, Alexander; Chervonenkis, Alexey; Vovk, Vladimir; Vapnik, Vladimir; Fu, Cynthia H Y

2011-05-15

There is rapidly accumulating evidence that the application of machine learning classification to neuroimaging measurements may be valuable for the development of diagnostic and prognostic prediction tools in psychiatry. However, current methods do not produce a measure of the reliability of the predictions. Knowing the risk of the error associated with a given prediction is essential for the development of neuroimaging-based clinical tools. We propose a general probabilistic classification method to produce measures of confidence for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. We describe the application of transductive conformal predictor (TCP) to MRI images. TCP generates the most likely prediction and a valid measure of confidence, as well as the set of all possible predictions for a given confidence level. We present the theoretical motivation for TCP, and we have applied TCP to structural and functional MRI data in patients and healthy controls to investigate diagnostic and prognostic prediction in depression. We verify that TCP predictions are as accurate as those obtained with more standard machine learning methods, such as support vector machine, while providing the additional benefit of a valid measure of confidence for each prediction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Consumer’s and merchant’s confidence in internet payments

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Franc Bračun

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Performing payment transactions over the Internet is becoming increasingly important. Whenever one interacts with others, he or she faces the problem of uncertainty because in interacting with others, one makes him or herself vulnerable, i.e. one can be betrayed. Thus, perceived risk and confidence are of fundamental importance in electronic payment transactions. A higher risk leads to greater hesitance about entering into a business relationship with a high degree of uncertainty; and therefore, to an increased need for confidence. This paper has two objectives. First, it aims to introduce and test a theoretical model that predicts consumer and merchant acceptance of the Internet payment solution by explaining the complex set of relationships among the key factors influencing confidence in electronic payment transactions. Second, the paper attempts to shed light on the complex interrelationship among confidence, control and perceived risk. An empirical study was conducted to test the proposed model using data from consumers and merchants in Slovenia. The results show how perceived risk dimensions and post-transaction control influence consumer’s and merchant’s confidence in electronic payment transactions, and the impact of confidence on the adoption of mass-market on-line payment solutions.

Data assimilation method based on the constraints of confidence region

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Li, Yong; Li, Siming; Sheng, Yao; Wang, Luheng

2018-03-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a distinguished data assimilation method that is widely used and studied in various fields including methodology and oceanography. However, due to the limited sample size or imprecise dynamics model, it is usually easy for the forecast error variance to be underestimated, which further leads to the phenomenon of filter divergence. Additionally, the assimilation results of the initial stage are poor if the initial condition settings differ greatly from the true initial state. To address these problems, the variance inflation procedure is usually adopted. In this paper, we propose a new method based on the constraints of a confidence region constructed by the observations, called EnCR, to estimate the inflation parameter of the forecast error variance of the EnKF method. In the new method, the state estimate is more robust to both the inaccurate forecast models and initial condition settings. The new method is compared with other adaptive data assimilation methods in the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 models under various model parameter settings. The simulation results show that the new method performs better than the competing methods.

The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

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Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

2012-01-01

The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isaacs, T

2002-01-01

Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site. Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence and some of

Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isaacs, T

2002-01-01

Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence, and some of

Nearest unlike neighbor (NUN): an aid to decision confidence estimation

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Dasarathy, Belur V.

1995-09-01

The concept of nearest unlike neighbor (NUN), proposed and explored previously in the design of nearest neighbor (NN) based decision systems, is further exploited in this study to develop a measure of confidence in the decisions made by NN-based decision systems. This measure of confidence, on the basis of comparison with a user-defined threshold, may be used to determine the acceptability of the decision provided by the NN-based decision system. The concepts, associated methodology, and some illustrative numerical examples using the now classical Iris data to bring out the ease of implementation and effectiveness of the proposed innovations are presented.

Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy

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Edwin Le Heron

2006-12-01

Full Text Available To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.

Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

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Xiao-Qian Sun

Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

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Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

2016-01-01

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

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Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

2012-01-01

Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

Biased but in Doubt: Conflict and Decision Confidence

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De Neys, Wim; Cromheeke, Sofie; Osman, Magda

2011-01-01

Human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics. A central question is whether the bias results from a failure to detect that the intuitions conflict with traditional normative considerations or from a failure to discard the tempting intuitions. The present study addressed this unresolved debate by using people's decision confidence as a nonverbal index of conflict detection. Participants were asked to indicate how confident they were after solving classic base-rate (Experiment 1) and conjunction fallacy (Experiment 2) problems in which a cued intuitive response could be inconsistent or consistent with the traditional correct response. Results indicated that reasoners showed a clear confidence decrease when they gave an intuitive response that conflicted with the normative response. Contrary to popular belief, this establishes that people seem to acknowledge that their intuitive answers are not fully warranted. Experiment 3 established that younger reasoners did not yet show the confidence decrease, which points to the role of improved bias awareness in our reasoning development. Implications for the long standing debate on human rationality are discussed. PMID:21283574

Self-confidence and metacognitive processes

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Kleitman Sabina

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.

The effect of a supervised community-based exercise program on balance, balance confidence, and gait in individuals with lower limb amputation.

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Miller, Carol A; Williams, Jennifer E; Durham, Katey L; Hom, Selena C; Smith, Julie L

2017-10-01

Many individuals with lower limb loss report concern with walking ability after completing structured traditional rehabilitation. The purpose of this study was to explore the impact of a supervised community-based exercise program on balance, balance confidence, and gait in individuals with lower limb amputation. Repeated measures. The supervised exercise program was offered biweekly for 6 weeks. The GAITRite System by CIR Systems, Inc., the Figure-of-8 Walk Test, and Activity-specific Balance Confidence Scale were used to measure clinical outcomes pre- and post-intervention. In total, 16 participants with lower limb amputation (mean age: 50.8 years) completed the study. A multivariate, repeated measures analysis of variance indicated a statistically significant effect of training across six clinical outcome measures ( F(6, 10) = 4.514, p = .018). Moderate effect sizes were found for the Figure-of-8 Walk Test ( η 2 = .586), Activity-specific Balance Confidence Scale ( η 2 = .504), and gait velocity at comfortable walking speed ( η 2 = .574). The average increase in gait speed was clinically meaningful at .14 m/s. The supervised community-based exercise program implemented in this study was designed to address specific functional needs for individuals with lower limb loss. Each participant experienced clinically meaningful improvements in balance, balance confidence, and walking ability. Clinical relevance The provision of a supervised community-based exercise program, after traditional rehabilitation, provides opportunity to offer a continuum of care that may enhance prosthetic functional ability and active participation in the community for individuals with lower limb amputation.

Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.

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Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew

2015-01-01

Leaders in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food industries expressed a unilateral concern over product confidence throughout the total product lifecycle, an unsettling fact for these leaders to manage given that their products affect the lives of millions of people each year. Fueled by the heparin incident of intentional adulteration in 2008, initial efforts for increasing product confidence were focused on improving the confidence of incoming materials, with a belief that supplier performance must be the root cause. As in the heparin case, concern over supplier performance extended deep into the supply chain to include suppliers of the suppliers-which is often a blind spot for pharmaceutical, device, and food manufacturers. Resolved to address the perceived lack of supplier performance, these U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-regulated industries began to adopt the supplier relationship management strategy, developed by the automotive industry, that emphasizes "management" of suppliers for the betterment of the manufacturers. Current product and supplier management strategies, however, have not led to a significant improvement in product confidence. As a result of the enduring concern by industry leaders over the lack of product confidence, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and FDA officials. Through a methodical research approach, data generated by the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers surprisingly pointed to themselves as a source of the lack of product confidence, and revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. It is only through this paradigm shift that manufacturers can work collaboratively with their suppliers as equal partners, instead of viewing their suppliers as "lesser" entities needing to be controlled. The basis of this shift provides manufacturers

"Joint Workshop on High Confidence Medical Devices, Software, and Systems (HCMDSS) and Medical Device Plug-and-Play (MD PnP) Interoperability"

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Goldman, Julian M

2008-01-01

Partial support was requested from TATRC, with joint funding from NSF, for a joint workshop to bring together the synergistic efforts and communities of the High Confidence Medical Devices, Software, and Systems (HCMDSS...

How Confident can we be in Flood Risk Assessments?

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Merz, B.

2017-12-01

Flood risk management should be based on risk analyses quantifying the risk and its reduction for different risk reduction strategies. However, validating risk estimates by comparing model simulations with past observations is hardly possible, since the assessment typically encompasses extreme events and their impacts that have not been observed before. Hence, risk analyses are strongly based on assumptions and expert judgement. This situation opens the door for cognitive biases, such as `illusion of certainty', `overconfidence' or `recency bias'. Such biases operate specifically in complex situations with many factors involved, when uncertainty is high and events are probabilistic, or when close learning feedback loops are missing - aspects that all apply to risk analyses. This contribution discusses how confident we can be in flood risk assessments, and reflects about more rigorous approaches towards their validation.

Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

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Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

2008-09-01

This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

A web-based survey of erection hardness score and its relationship to aging, sexual behavior, confidence, and risk factors in Japan.

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Kimura, Masaki; Shimura, Satoru; Tai, Toshihiro; Kobayashi, Hideyuki; Baba, Shiro; Kano, Munehide; Nagao, Koichi

2013-12-01

Erection hardness is an elemental component of men's sexual quality of life that can be easily measured by the Erection Hardness Score (EHS). However, there are few published data regarding EHS, and there is little understanding of its relationships to aging, men's sexual behavior, sexual confidence, and risk factors in Japan. To assess EHS and how it correlates to aging, sexual behaviors, sexual self-confidence, and risk factors in a Japanese population database. A web-based cross-sectional nationwide survey conducted between March and May 2009 in Japan. EHS, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, general health, sexual confidence, frequency of sexual behaviors, and attitudes toward treatment of erectile dysfunction (ED). A total of 7,710 men with a mean age of 39.3 ± 13.0 years participated in this survey. In 6,528 participants who were not using phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors, 3,540 (54.2%) had EHS ≤ 3 and 1,196 (18.3%) had EHS ≤ 2. We found a significant age-dependent decrease in EHS, sexual confidence, and frequency of sexual activities. Sexual confidence was strongly associated with higher EHS but was also associated with older age groups, presence of offspring, awareness of better general health, and greater frequency of sexual activity. In age-adjusted multivariate logistic regression, risk factors for a lower EHS (defined as EHS ≤ 2) were heavy smoking, which was defined as more than two packs per day (odds ratio [OR], 1.7) or a history of metabolic syndrome (OR, 1.4), hypertension (OR, 1.2), and diabetes mellitus (OR, 1.4). EHS correlates to various elements, such as aging, sexual behaviors, sexual confidence, and ED-related risk factors, and can be a valuable tool in clinical practice for monitoring and treating ED and thereby improving the quality of life for men and their sexual partners. Kimura M, Shimura S, Tai T, Kobayashi H, Baba S, Kano M, and Nagao K. A web-based survey of Erection Hardness Score and its relationship to aging, sexual

A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions

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Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.

1982-01-01

One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.

Simulation experience enhances physical therapist student confidence in managing a patient in the critical care environment.

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Ohtake, Patricia J; Lazarus, Marcilene; Schillo, Rebecca; Rosen, Michael

2013-02-01

Rehabilitation of patients in critical care environments improves functional outcomes. This finding has led to increased implementation of intensive care unit (ICU) rehabilitation programs, including early mobility, and an associated increased demand for physical therapists practicing in ICUs. Unfortunately, many physical therapists report being inadequately prepared to work in this high-risk environment. Simulation provides focused, deliberate practice in safe, controlled learning environments and may be a method to initiate academic preparation of physical therapists for ICU practice. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of participation in simulation-based management of a patient with critical illness in an ICU setting on levels of confidence and satisfaction in physical therapist students. A one-group, pretest-posttest, quasi-experimental design was used. Physical therapist students (N=43) participated in a critical care simulation experience requiring technical (assessing bed mobility and pulmonary status), behavioral (patient and interprofessional communication), and cognitive (recognizing a patient status change and initiating appropriate responses) skill performance. Student confidence and satisfaction were surveyed before and after the simulation experience. Students' confidence in their technical, behavioral, and cognitive skill performance increased from "somewhat confident" to "confident" following the critical care simulation experience. Student satisfaction was highly positive, with strong agreement the simulation experience was valuable, reinforced course content, and was a useful educational tool. Limitations of the study were the small sample from one university and a control group was not included. Incorporating a simulated, interprofessional critical care experience into a required clinical course improved physical therapist student confidence in technical, behavioral, and cognitive performance measures and was associated with high

The Model Confidence Set

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.

The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The MCS......, beyond the comparison of models. We apply the MCS procedure to two empirical problems. First, we revisit the inflation forecasting problem posed by Stock and Watson (1999), and compute the MCS for their set of inflation forecasts. Second, we compare a number of Taylor rule regressions and determine...... the MCS of the best in terms of in-sample likelihood criteria....

Confidence in Numerical Simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hemez, Francois M.

2015-01-01

This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to ''forecast,'' that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists ''think.'' This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. ''Confidence'' derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

Investigating the psychological resilience, self-confidence and problem-solving skills of midwife candidates.

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Ertekin Pinar, Sukran; Yildirim, Gulay; Sayin, Neslihan

2018-05-01

The high level of psychological resilience, self-confidence and problem solving skills of midwife candidates play an important role in increasing the quality of health care and in fulfilling their responsibilities towards patients. This study was conducted to investigate the psychological resilience, self-confidence and problem-solving skills of midwife candidates. It is a convenience descriptive quantitative study. Students who study at Health Sciences Faculty in Turkey's Central Anatolia Region. Midwife candidates (N = 270). In collection of data, the Personal Information Form, Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults (PRSA), Self-Confidence Scale (SCS), and Problem Solving Inventory (PSI) were used. There was a negatively moderate-level significant relationship between the Problem Solving Inventory scores and the Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults scores (r = -0.619; p = 0.000), and between Self-Confidence Scale scores (r = -0.524; p = 0.000). There was a positively moderate-level significant relationship between the Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults scores and the Self-Confidence Scale scores (r = 0.583; p = 0.000). There was a statistically significant difference (p Problem Solving Inventory and the Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults scores according to getting support in a difficult situation. As psychological resilience and self-confidence levels increase, problem-solving skills increase; additionally, as self-confidence increases, psychological resilience increases too. Psychological resilience, self-confidence, and problem-solving skills of midwife candidates in their first-year of studies are higher than those who are in their fourth year. Self-confidence and psychological resilience of midwife candidates aged between 17 and 21, self-confidence and problem solving skills of residents of city centers, psychological resilience of those who perceive their monthly income as sufficient are high

Thought confidence as a determinant of persuasion: the self-validation hypothesis.

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Petty, Richard E; Briñol, Pablo; Tormala, Zakary L

2002-05-01

Previous research in the domain of attitude change has described 2 primary dimensions of thinking that impact persuasion processes and outcomes: the extent (amount) of thinking and the direction (valence) of issue-relevant thought. The authors examined the possibility that another, more meta-cognitive aspect of thinking is also important-the degree of confidence people have in their own thoughts. Four studies test the notion that thought confidence affects the extent of persuasion. When positive thoughts dominate in response to a message, increasing confidence in those thoughts increases persuasion, but when negative thoughts dominate, increasing confidence decreases persuasion. In addition, using self-reported and manipulated thought confidence in separate studies, the authors provide evidence that the magnitude of the attitude-thought relationship depends on the confidence people have in their thoughts. Finally, the authors also show that these self-validation effects are most likely in situations that foster high amounts of information processing activity.

Limited test data: The choice between confidence limits and inverse probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nichols, P.

1975-01-01

For a unit which has been successfully designed to a high standard of reliability, any test programme of reasonable size will result in only a small number of failures. In these circumstances the failure rate estimated from the tests will depend on the statistical treatment applied. When a large number of units is to be manufactured, an unexpected high failure rate will certainly result in a large number of failures, so it is necessary to guard against optimistic unrepresentative test results by using a confidence limit approach. If only a small number of production units is involved, failures may not occur even with a higher than expected failure rate, and so one may be able to accept a method which allows for the possibility of either optimistic or pessimistic test results, and in this case an inverse probability approach, based on Bayes' theorem, might be used. The paper first draws attention to an apparently significant difference in the numerical results from the two methods, particularly for the overall probability of several units arranged in redundant logic. It then discusses a possible objection to the inverse method, followed by a demonstration that, for a large population and a very reasonable choice of prior probability, the inverse probability and confidence limit methods give the same numerical result. Finally, it is argued that a confidence limit approach is overpessimistic when a small number of production units is involved, and that both methods give the same answer for a large population. (author)

Confidence-Based Progress-Driven Self-Generated Goals for Skill Acquisition in Developmental Robots

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Hung eNgo

2013-11-01

Full Text Available A reinforcement learning agent that autonomously explores its environment can utilize a curiosity drive to enable continual learning of skills, in the absence of any external rewards. We formulate curiosity-driven exploration, and eventual skill acquisition, as a selective sampling problem. Each environment setting provides the agent with a stream of instances. An instance is a sensory observation that, when queried, causes an outcome that the agent is trying to predict. After an instance is observed, a query condition, derived herein, tells whether its outcome is statistically known or unknown to the agent, based on the confidence interval of an online linear classifier. Upon encountering the first unknown instance, the agent "queries'' the environment to observe the outcome, which is expected to improve its confidence in the corresponding predictor. If the environment is in a setting where all instances are known, the agent generates a plan of actions to reach a new setting, where an unknown instance is likely to be encountered. The desired setting is a self-generated goal, and the plan of action, essentially a program to solve a problem, is a skill. The success of the plan depends on the quality of the agent's predictors, which are improved as mentioned above. For validation, this method is applied to both a simulated and real Katana robot arm in its "blocks-world'' environment. Results show that the proposed method generates sample-efficient curious exploration behavior, which exhibits developmental stages, continual learning, and skill acquisition, in an intrinsically-motivated playful agent.

Classroom-based Interventions and Teachers' Perceived Job Stressors and Confidence: Evidence from a Randomized Trial in Head Start Settings.

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Zhai, Fuhua; Raver, C Cybele; Li-Grining, Christine

2011-09-01

Preschool teachers' job stressors have received increasing attention but have been understudied in the literature. We investigated the impacts of a classroom-based intervention, the Chicago School Readiness Project (CSRP), on teachers' perceived job stressors and confidence, as indexed by their perceptions of job control, job resources, job demands, and confidence in behavior management. Using a clustered randomized controlled trial (RCT) design, the CSRP provided multifaceted services to the treatment group, including teacher training and mental health consultation, which were accompanied by stress-reduction services and workshops. Overall, 90 teachers in 35 classrooms at 18 Head Start sites participated in the study. After adjusting for teacher and classroom factors and site fixed effects, we found that the CSRP had significant effects on the improvement of teachers' perceived job control and work-related resources. We also found that the CSRP decreased teachers' confidence in behavior management and had no statistically significant effects on job demands. Overall, we did not find significant moderation effects of teacher race/ethnicity, education, teaching experience, or teacher type. The implications for research and policy are discussed.

Functional enrichment analyses and construction of functional similarity networks with high confidence function prediction by PFP

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Kihara Daisuke

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A new paradigm of biological investigation takes advantage of technologies that produce large high throughput datasets, including genome sequences, interactions of proteins, and gene expression. The ability of biologists to analyze and interpret such data relies on functional annotation of the included proteins, but even in highly characterized organisms many proteins can lack the functional evidence necessary to infer their biological relevance. Results Here we have applied high confidence function predictions from our automated prediction system, PFP, to three genome sequences, Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and Plasmodium falciparum (malaria. The number of annotated genes is increased by PFP to over 90% for all of the genomes. Using the large coverage of the function annotation, we introduced the functional similarity networks which represent the functional space of the proteomes. Four different functional similarity networks are constructed for each proteome, one each by considering similarity in a single Gene Ontology (GO category, i.e. Biological Process, Cellular Component, and Molecular Function, and another one by considering overall similarity with the funSim score. The functional similarity networks are shown to have higher modularity than the protein-protein interaction network. Moreover, the funSim score network is distinct from the single GO-score networks by showing a higher clustering degree exponent value and thus has a higher tendency to be hierarchical. In addition, examining function assignments to the protein-protein interaction network and local regions of genomes has identified numerous cases where subnetworks or local regions have functionally coherent proteins. These results will help interpreting interactions of proteins and gene orders in a genome. Several examples of both analyses are highlighted. Conclusion The analyses demonstrate that applying high confidence predictions from PFP

Evaluating an undergraduate interprofessional simulation-based educational module: communication, teamwork, and confidence performing cardiac resuscitation skills

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Marian Luctkar-Flude

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Marian Luctkar-Flude1, Cynthia Baker1, Cheryl Pulling1, Robert McGraw2, Damon Dagnone2, Jennifer Medves1, Carly Turner-Kelly11School of Nursing, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada; 2School of Medicine, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, CanadaPurpose: Interprofessional (IP collaboration during cardiac resuscitation is essential and contributes to patient wellbeing. The purpose of this study is to evaluate an innovative simulation-based IP educational module for undergraduate nursing and medical students on cardiac resuscitation skills.Methods: Nursing and medical trainees participated in a new cardiac resuscitation curriculum involving a 2-hour IP foundational cardiac resuscitation skills lab, followed by three 2-hour IP simulation sessions. Control group participants attended the existing two 2-hour IP simulation sessions. Study respondents (N = 71 completed a survey regarding their confidence performing cardiac resuscitation skills and their perceptions of IP collaboration.Results: Despite a consistent positive trend, only one out of 17 quantitative survey items were significantly improved for learners in the new curriculum. They were more likely to report feeling confident managing the airway during cardiac resuscitation (P = 0.001. Overall, quantitative results suggest that senior nursing and medical students were comfortable with IP communication and teamwork and confident with cardiac resuscitation skills. There were no significant differences between nursing students’ and medical students’ results. Through qualitative feedback, participants reported feeling comfortable learning with students from other professions and found value in the IP simulation sessions.Conclusion: Results from this study will inform ongoing restructuring of the IP cardiac resuscitation skills simulation module as defined by the action research process. Specific improvements that are suggested by these findings include strengthening the team

Confidence in critical care nursing.

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Evans, Jeanne; Bell, Jennifer L; Sweeney, Annemarie E; Morgan, Jennifer I; Kelly, Helen M

2010-10-01

The purpose of the study was to gain an understanding of the nursing phenomenon, confidence, from the experience of nurses in the nursing subculture of critical care. Leininger's theory of cultural care diversity and universality guided this qualitative descriptive study. Questions derived from the sunrise model were used to elicit nurses' perspectives about cultural and social structures that exist within the critical care nursing subculture and the influence that these factors have on confidence. Twenty-eight critical care nurses from a large Canadian healthcare organization participated in semistructured interviews about confidence. Five themes arose from the descriptions provided by the participants. The three themes, tenuously navigating initiation rituals, deliberately developing holistic supportive relationships, and assimilating clinical decision-making rules were identified as social and cultural factors related to confidence. The remaining two themes, preserving a sense of security despite barriers and accommodating to diverse challenges, were identified as environmental factors related to confidence. Practice and research implications within the culture of critical care nursing are discussed in relation to each of the themes.

Two sides of the same coin : Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lebreton, Maël; Langdon, Shari; Slieker, Matthijs J; Nooitgedacht, Jip S; Goudriaan, Anna E; Denys, D.; van Holst, Ruth J; Luigjes, Judy

2018-01-01

Decisions are accompanied by a feeling of confidence, that is, a belief about the decision being correct. Confidence accuracy is critical, notably in high-stakes situations such as medical or financial decision-making. We investigated how incentive motivation influences confidence accuracy by

Confidence intervals for distinguishing ordinal and disordinal interactions in multiple regression.

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Lee, Sunbok; Lei, Man-Kit; Brody, Gene H

2015-06-01

Distinguishing between ordinal and disordinal interaction in multiple regression is useful in testing many interesting theoretical hypotheses. Because the distinction is made based on the location of a crossover point of 2 simple regression lines, confidence intervals of the crossover point can be used to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interactions. This study examined 2 factors that need to be considered in constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point: (a) the assumption about the sampling distribution of the crossover point, and (b) the possibility of abnormally wide confidence intervals for the crossover point. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare 6 different methods for constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point in terms of the coverage rate, the proportion of true values that fall to the left or right of the confidence intervals, and the average width of the confidence intervals. The methods include the reparameterization, delta, Fieller, basic bootstrap, percentile bootstrap, and bias-corrected accelerated bootstrap methods. The results of our Monte Carlo simulation study suggest that statistical inference using confidence intervals to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interaction requires sample sizes more than 500 to be able to provide sufficiently narrow confidence intervals to identify the location of the crossover point. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Planning an Availability Demonstration Test with Consideration of Confidence Level

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Frank Müller

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The full service life of a technical product or system is usually not completed after an initial failure. With appropriate measures, the system can be returned to a functional state. Availability is an important parameter for evaluating such repairable systems: Failure and repair behaviors are required to determine this availability. These data are usually given as mean value distributions with a certain confidence level. Consequently, the availability value also needs to be expressed with a confidence level. This paper first highlights the bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation (BMCS for availability demonstration and inference with confidence intervals based on limited failure and repair data. The BMCS enables point-, steady-state and average availability to be determined with a confidence level based on the pure samples or mean value distributions in combination with the corresponding sample size of failure and repair behavior. Furthermore, the method enables individual sample sizes to be used. A sample calculation of a system with Weibull-distributed failure behavior and a sample of repair times is presented. Based on the BMCS, an extended, new procedure is introduced: the “inverse bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation” (IBMCS to be used for availability demonstration tests with consideration of confidence levels. The IBMCS provides a test plan comprising the required number of failures and repair actions that must be observed to demonstrate a certain availability value. The concept can be applied to each type of availability and can also be applied to the pure samples or distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. It does not require special types of distribution. In other words, for example, a Weibull, a lognormal or an exponential distribution can all be considered as distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. After presenting the IBMCS, a sample calculation will be carried out and the potential of the BMCS and the IBMCS

PCA-based bootstrap confidence interval tests for gene-disease association involving multiple SNPs

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Xue Fuzhong

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genetic association study is currently the primary vehicle for identification and characterization of disease-predisposing variant(s which usually involves multiple single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs available. However, SNP-wise association tests raise concerns over multiple testing. Haplotype-based methods have the advantage of being able to account for correlations between neighbouring SNPs, yet assuming Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE and potentially large number degrees of freedom can harm its statistical power and robustness. Approaches based on principal component analysis (PCA are preferable in this regard but their performance varies with methods of extracting principal components (PCs. Results PCA-based bootstrap confidence interval test (PCA-BCIT, which directly uses the PC scores to assess gene-disease association, was developed and evaluated for three ways of extracting PCs, i.e., cases only(CAES, controls only(COES and cases and controls combined(CES. Extraction of PCs with COES is preferred to that with CAES and CES. Performance of the test was examined via simulations as well as analyses on data of rheumatoid arthritis and heroin addiction, which maintains nominal level under null hypothesis and showed comparable performance with permutation test. Conclusions PCA-BCIT is a valid and powerful method for assessing gene-disease association involving multiple SNPs.

Categorizing Biases in High-Confidence High-Throughput Protein-Protein Interaction Data Sets*

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Yu, Xueping; Ivanic, Joseph; Memišević, Vesna; Wallqvist, Anders; Reifman, Jaques

2011-01-01

We characterized and evaluated the functional attributes of three yeast high-confidence protein-protein interaction data sets derived from affinity purification/mass spectrometry, protein-fragment complementation assay, and yeast two-hybrid experiments. The interacting proteins retrieved from these data sets formed distinct, partially overlapping sets with different protein-protein interaction characteristics. These differences were primarily a function of the deployed experimental technologies used to recover these interactions. This affected the total coverage of interactions and was especially evident in the recovery of interactions among different functional classes of proteins. We found that the interaction data obtained by the yeast two-hybrid method was the least biased toward any particular functional characterization. In contrast, interacting proteins in the affinity purification/mass spectrometry and protein-fragment complementation assay data sets were over- and under-represented among distinct and different functional categories. We delineated how these differences affected protein complex organization in the network of interactions, in particular for strongly interacting complexes (e.g. RNA and protein synthesis) versus weak and transient interacting complexes (e.g. protein transport). We quantified methodological differences in detecting protein interactions from larger protein complexes, in the correlation of protein abundance among interacting proteins, and in their connectivity of essential proteins. In the latter case, we showed that minimizing inherent methodology biases removed many of the ambiguous conclusions about protein essentiality and protein connectivity. We used these findings to rationalize how biological insights obtained by analyzing data sets originating from different sources sometimes do not agree or may even contradict each other. An important corollary of this work was that discrepancies in biological insights did not

The Development of Confidence Limits for Fatigue Strength Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

SUTHERLAND, HERBERT J.; VEERS, PAUL S.

1999-01-01

Over the past several years, extensive databases have been developed for the S-N behavior of various materials used in wind turbine blades, primarily fiberglass composites. These data are typically presented both in their raw form and curve fit to define their average properties. For design, confidence limits must be placed on these descriptions. In particular, most designs call for the 95/95 design values; namely, with a 95% level of confidence, the designer is assured that 95% of the material will meet or exceed the design value. For such material properties as the ultimate strength, the procedures for estimating its value at a particular confidence level is well defined if the measured values follow a normal or a log-normal distribution. Namely, based upon the number of sample points and their standard deviation, a commonly-found table may be used to determine the survival percentage at a particular confidence level with respect to its mean value. The same is true for fatigue data at a constant stress level (the number of cycles to failure N at stress level S(sub 1)). However, when the stress level is allowed to vary, as with a typical S-N fatigue curve, the procedures for determining confidence limits are not as well defined. This paper outlines techniques for determining confidence limits of fatigue data. Different approaches to estimating the 95/95 level are compared. Data from the MSU/DOE and the FACT fatigue databases are used to illustrate typical results

Time-varying associations between confidence and motivation to abstain from marijuana during treatment among adolescents.

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Chung, Tammy; Maisto, Stephen A

2016-06-01

An important goal of addictions treatment is to develop a positive association between high levels of confidence and motivation to abstain from substance use. This study modeled the time-varying association between confidence and motivation to abstain from marijuana use among youth in treatment, and the time-varying effect of pre-treatment covariates (marijuana abstinence goal and perceived peer marijuana use) on motivation to abstain. 150 adolescents (75% male, 83% White) in community-based intensive outpatient treatment in Pennsylvania completed a pre-treatment assessment of abstinence goal, perceived peer marijuana use, and motivation and confidence to abstain from marijuana. Ratings of motivation and confidence to abstain also were collected after each session. A time-varying effect model (TVEM) was used to characterize changes in the association between confidence and motivation to abstain (lagged), and included covariates representing pre-treatment abstinence goal and perceived peer marijuana use. Confidence and motivation to abstain from marijuana generally increased during treatment. The association between confidence and motivation strengthened across sessions 1-4, and was maintained through later sessions. Pre-treatment abstinence goal had an early time-limited effect (through session 6) on motivation to abstain. Pre-treatment perception of peer marijuana use had a significant effect on motivation to abstain only at session 2. Early treatment sessions represent a critical period during which the association between confidence and motivation to abstain generally increased. The time-limited effects of pre-treatment characteristics suggest the importance of early sessions in addressing abstinence goal and peer substance use that may impact motivation to abstain from marijuana. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SOCIAL MEDIA – VITAL INSTRUMENT IN GAINING CONSUMERS CONFIDENCE

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Mirela-Cristina VOICU

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Given that, currently, the consumer has become more demanding and organizations face some of the greatest challenges due to the economic climate of recent years, the need to build and cultivate strong relationships has become vital not only for the company's success but also for its survival. And solid relationships are built over time through confidence. Trust is one of the most important elements in the process of purchasing and consumer loyalty; it is difficult to obtain but easy to lose. Companies that are enjoying a high degree of confidence benefit from best quotations for their shares, higher profits and a better retention of the best employees. The effects of the lack of confidence are obvious (unsatisfied consumers, lost sales and very expensive for the company. In this context, through the following paper we seek to bring more understanding on how a company can gain the confidence of consumers given that the forms of communication that consumers prefer and that are gaining momentum currently, are taking place online, especially in the social media.

Parents' obesity-related behavior and confidence to support behavioral change in their obese child: data from the STAR study.

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Arsenault, Lisa N; Xu, Kathleen; Taveras, Elsie M; Hacker, Karen A

2014-01-01

Successful childhood obesity interventions frequently focus on behavioral modification and involve parents or family members. Parental confidence in supporting behavior change may be an element of successful family-based prevention efforts. We aimed to determine whether parents' own obesity-related behaviors were related to their confidence in supporting their child's achievement of obesity-related behavioral goals. Cross-sectional analyses of data collected at baseline of a randomized control trial testing a treatment intervention for obese children (n = 787) in primary care settings (n = 14). Five obesity-related behaviors (physical activity, screen time, sugar-sweetened beverage, sleep duration, fast food) were self-reported by parents for themselves and their child. Behaviors were dichotomized on the basis of achievement of behavioral goals. Five confidence questions asked how confident the parent was in helping their child achieve each goal. Logistic regression modeling high confidence was conducted with goal achievement and demographics as independent variables. Parents achieving physical activity or sleep duration goals were significantly more likely to be highly confident in supporting their child's achievement of those goals (physical activity, odds ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval 1.19-2.60; sleep, odds ratio 1.74; 95% confidence interval 1.09-2.79) independent of sociodemographic variables and child's current behavior. Parental achievements of TV watching and fast food goals were also associated with confidence, but significance was attenuated after child's behavior was included in models. Parents' own obesity-related behaviors are factors that may affect their confidence to support their child's behavior change. Providers seeking to prevent childhood obesity should address parent/family behaviors as part of their obesity prevention strategies. Copyright © 2014 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Selective Cue Integration Framework: A Theory of Postidentification Witness Confidence Assessment

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Charman, Steve D.; Carlucci, Marianna; Vallano, Jon; Gregory, Amy Hyman

2010-01-01

The current manuscript proposes a theory of how witnesses assess their confidence following a lineup identification, called the selective cue integration framework (SCIF). Drawing from past research on the postidentification feedback effect, the SCIF details a three-stage process of confidence assessment that is based largely on a…

Workshop on confidence limits. Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

James, F.; Lyons, L.; Perrin, Y.

2000-01-01

The First Workshop on Confidence Limits was held at CERN on 17-18 January 2000. It was devoted to the problem of setting confidence limits in difficult cases: number of observed events is small or zero, background is larger than signal, background not well known, and measurements near a physical boundary. Among the many examples in high-energy physics are searches for the Higgs, searches for neutrino oscillations, B s mixing, SUSY, compositeness, neutrino masses, and dark matter. Several different methods are on the market: the CL s methods used by the LEP Higgs searches; Bayesian methods; Feldman-Cousins and modifications thereof; empirical and combined methods. The Workshop generated considerable interest, and attendance was finally limited by the seating capacity of the CERN Council Chamber where all the sessions took place. These proceedings contain all the papers presented, as well as the full text of the discussions after each paper and of course the last session which was a discussion session. The list of participants and the 'required reading', which was expected to be part of the prior knowledge of all participants, are also included. (orig.)

Ventral striatal activity correlates with memory confidence for old- and new-responses in a difficult recognition test.

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Ulrike Schwarze

Full Text Available Activity in the ventral striatum has frequently been associated with retrieval success, i.e., it is higher for hits than correct rejections. Based on the prominent role of the ventral striatum in the reward circuit, its activity has been interpreted to reflect the higher subjective value of hits compared to correct rejections in standard recognition tests. This hypothesis was supported by a recent study showing that ventral striatal activity is higher for correct rejections than hits when the value of rejections is increased by external incentives. These findings imply that the striatal response during recognition is context-sensitive and modulated by the adaptive significance of "oldness" or "newness" to the current goals. The present study is based on the idea that not only external incentives, but also other deviations from standard recognition tests which affect the subjective value of specific response types should modulate striatal activity. Therefore, we explored ventral striatal activity in an unusually difficult recognition test that was characterized by low levels of confidence and accuracy. Based on the human uncertainty aversion, in such a recognition context, the subjective value of all high confident decisions is expected to be higher than usual, i.e., also rejecting items with high certainty is deemed rewarding. In an accompanying behavioural experiment, participants rated the pleasantness of each recognition response. As hypothesized, ventral striatal activity correlated in the current unusually difficult recognition test not only with retrieval success, but also with confidence. Moreover, participants indicated that they were more satisfied by higher confidence in addition to perceived oldness of an item. Taken together, the results are in line with the hypothesis that ventral striatal activity during recognition codes the subjective value of different response types that is modulated by the context of the recognition test.

Interpersonal confidence as a factor in the prevention of disorganized interaction

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Dontsov, Aleksander I.

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Human communities are based on a certain set of everyday attitudes, on the coordination of the actions of “the self ” in a group, and on the regulation of social practices. The results of this study show that a number of factors act as determinants of trust/ distrust ambivalence: the multidimensionality and the dynamics of interactions among people; the high level of subjectivity in evaluating risks resulting from openness and from confidence in partners involved in an interaction; and a subject’s contradictory attitude toward the personal traits of an interacting partner (power, activity, honesty, trustworthiness. Japanese scholars have proved the necessity of taking into account quality of life (QOL as one of the determinants of the development of interpersonal confidence. The study demonstrates that people try to bring trust into their daily routines as a way of organizing conscientious, emotionally open interactions that take into account the interests of all parties. Mistrust blocks access to the emotional, intellectual, and activity-related resources supporting life and undermines faith in the possibility of virtue and morality. Yet a supplementary study (using instant diagnostics indicates that in practice respondents did not demonstrate a high level of confidence (in two cities it was 0%; in one city, it was 4.6%. In spite of emotionally positive views regarding trust, as well as constructive estimates of its moral/behavioral potential, a considerable number of respondents were not open and oriented to the interests of others. A tendency toward caution, inwardness, and constrained sincerity leads to nonconformity in one’s actions in a group and to changes in the vector of social practices from socio-partner regulation to disorganized interaction.

[Sources of leader's confidence in organizations].

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Ikeda, Hiroshi; Furukawa, Hisataka

2006-04-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the sources of confidence that organization leaders had. As potential sources of the confidence, we focused on fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, reflection on good as well as bad job experiences, and awareness of job experiences in terms of commonality, differentiation, and multiple viewpoints. A questionnaire was administered to 170 managers of Japanese companies. Results were as follows: First, confidence in leaders was more strongly related to fulfillment of expectations made by self and others than reflection on and awareness of job experiences. Second, the confidence was weakly related to internal processing of job experiences, in the form of commonality awareness and reflection on good job experiences. And finally, years of managerial experiences had almost no relation to the confidence. These findings suggested that confidence in leaders was directly acquired from fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, rather than indirectly through internal processing of job experiences. Implications of the findings for leadership training were also discussed.

Confidence in the use of information management and technology (IM and T) in radiography: Is age a barrier?

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Rogers, Hywel, E-mail: rogershj1@cf.ac.u [Department of Radiography, School of Healthcare Studies, Cardiff University, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XN (United Kingdom); Pratt, Shaaron; Brown, Paul; Gambling, Tina [Department of Radiography, School of Healthcare Studies, Cardiff University, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XN (United Kingdom)

2010-08-15

Introduction: Age has been reported as a barrier to the use of Information Management and Technology (IM and T). Radiographers' confidence and ability in IM and T may be related to age and it is the aim of this research to investigate this relationship. Method: An online survey method gathered views from the radiographic population, between 31st August 2008 and 10th October 2008. The questionnaire encompassed IM and T ability, work based IM and T usage, personal IM and T usage, security and governance issues, education and training experience, the future and demographic details. For the purpose of this paper the first three sections and demographic section were considered. Results: Radiographers showed a good level of ability and confidence in the use of IM and T. Some general applications such as word processing showed a decreased confidence with age. Confidence in all radiography specific applications was scored highly although confidence in the use of Hospital Information Systems (HIS) and radiotherapy Treatment Planning Systems (TPS) showed the least confidence. Statistical analysis did not reveal a strong link between age and confidence in all applications. Discussion: While a link between age and confidence was not found in this study, frequency of use and training in IM and T require further investigation in relation to specific roles.

Confidence in the use of information management and technology (IM and T) in radiography: Is age a barrier?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogers, Hywel; Pratt, Shaaron; Brown, Paul; Gambling, Tina

2010-01-01

Introduction: Age has been reported as a barrier to the use of Information Management and Technology (IM and T). Radiographers' confidence and ability in IM and T may be related to age and it is the aim of this research to investigate this relationship. Method: An online survey method gathered views from the radiographic population, between 31st August 2008 and 10th October 2008. The questionnaire encompassed IM and T ability, work based IM and T usage, personal IM and T usage, security and governance issues, education and training experience, the future and demographic details. For the purpose of this paper the first three sections and demographic section were considered. Results: Radiographers showed a good level of ability and confidence in the use of IM and T. Some general applications such as word processing showed a decreased confidence with age. Confidence in all radiography specific applications was scored highly although confidence in the use of Hospital Information Systems (HIS) and radiotherapy Treatment Planning Systems (TPS) showed the least confidence. Statistical analysis did not reveal a strong link between age and confidence in all applications. Discussion: While a link between age and confidence was not found in this study, frequency of use and training in IM and T require further investigation in relation to specific roles.

Vaccination Confidence and Parental Refusal/Delay of Early Childhood Vaccines.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melissa B Gilkey

Full Text Available To support efforts to address parental hesitancy towards early childhood vaccination, we sought to validate the Vaccination Confidence Scale using data from a large, population-based sample of U.S. parents.We used weighted data from 9,354 parents who completed the 2011 National Immunization Survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 19- to 35-month-old child in their households. Healthcare providers then verified children's vaccination status for vaccines including measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR, varicella, and seasonal flu. We used separate multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations between parents' mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status.A substantial minority of parents reported a history of vaccine refusal (15% or delay (27%. Vaccination confidence was negatively associated with refusal of any vaccine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.63 as well as refusal of MMR, varicella, and flu vaccines specifically. Negative associations between vaccination confidence and measures of vaccine delay were more moderate, including delay of any vaccine (OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76-0.86. Vaccination confidence was positively associated with having received vaccines, including MMR (OR = 1.53, 95% CI, 1.40-1.68, varicella (OR = 1.54, 95% CI, 1.42-1.66, and flu vaccines (OR = 1.32, 95% CI, 1.23-1.42.Vaccination confidence was consistently associated with early childhood vaccination behavior across multiple vaccine types. Our findings support expanding the application of the Vaccination Confidence Scale to measure vaccination beliefs among parents of young children.

Two sides of the same coin: Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments.

Science.gov (United States)

Lebreton, Maël; Langdon, Shari; Slieker, Matthijs J; Nooitgedacht, Jip S; Goudriaan, Anna E; Denys, Damiaan; van Holst, Ruth J; Luigjes, Judy

2018-05-01

Decisions are accompanied by a feeling of confidence, that is, a belief about the decision being correct. Confidence accuracy is critical, notably in high-stakes situations such as medical or financial decision-making. We investigated how incentive motivation influences confidence accuracy by combining a perceptual task with a confidence incentivization mechanism. By varying the magnitude and valence (gains or losses) of monetary incentives, we orthogonalized their motivational and affective components. Corroborating theories of rational decision-making and motivation, our results first reveal that the motivational value of incentives improves aspects of confidence accuracy. However, in line with a value-confidence interaction hypothesis, we further show that the affective value of incentives concurrently biases confidence reports, thus degrading confidence accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate that the motivational and affective effects of incentives differentially affect how confidence builds on perceptual evidence. Together, these findings may provide new hints about confidence miscalibration in healthy or pathological contexts.

Two sides of the same coin: Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments

Science.gov (United States)

Lebreton, Maël; Slieker, Matthijs J.; Nooitgedacht, Jip S.; van Holst, Ruth J.; Luigjes, Judy

2018-01-01

Decisions are accompanied by a feeling of confidence, that is, a belief about the decision being correct. Confidence accuracy is critical, notably in high-stakes situations such as medical or financial decision-making. We investigated how incentive motivation influences confidence accuracy by combining a perceptual task with a confidence incentivization mechanism. By varying the magnitude and valence (gains or losses) of monetary incentives, we orthogonalized their motivational and affective components. Corroborating theories of rational decision-making and motivation, our results first reveal that the motivational value of incentives improves aspects of confidence accuracy. However, in line with a value-confidence interaction hypothesis, we further show that the affective value of incentives concurrently biases confidence reports, thus degrading confidence accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate that the motivational and affective effects of incentives differentially affect how confidence builds on perceptual evidence. Together, these findings may provide new hints about confidence miscalibration in healthy or pathological contexts. PMID:29854944

Modeling of a Robust Confidence Band for the Power Curve of a Wind Turbine.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernandez, Wilmar; Méndez, Alfredo; Maldonado-Correa, Jorge L; Balleteros, Francisco

2016-12-07

Having an accurate model of the power curve of a wind turbine allows us to better monitor its operation and planning of storage capacity. Since wind speed and direction is of a highly stochastic nature, the forecasting of the power generated by the wind turbine is of the same nature as well. In this paper, a method for obtaining a robust confidence band containing the power curve of a wind turbine under test conditions is presented. Here, the confidence band is bound by two curves which are estimated using parametric statistical inference techniques. However, the observations that are used for carrying out the statistical analysis are obtained by using the binning method, and in each bin, the outliers are eliminated by using a censorship process based on robust statistical techniques. Then, the observations that are not outliers are divided into observation sets. Finally, both the power curve of the wind turbine and the two curves that define the robust confidence band are estimated using each of the previously mentioned observation sets.

On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

2018-02-01

Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cultural Repercussions: Extending Our Knowledge about How Values of Trust and Confidence Influence Tax Structures within Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanna Lierse

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Within a unified Europe that is heading towards ever more harmonization,it is interesting to examine why there exists such diversity in tax regimesamong its countries. Is it possible that some of the decisions pertaining totaxation are based on latent cultural aspects? This study, set in a purelyEuropean context, seeks to analyze tax variations within Europe through thelens of cultural variations. Specifically, how trust, confidence and equalitymatter with regard to tax revenues and tax progressivity. Within this regard,we achieved strong results linking trust and confidence to higher tax revenuesand higher tax progressivity. That is, where trust among societal membersis low and confidence in public institutions is low, regimes opt for low taxrevenues and lenient tax rates. It is argued that where mistrust is high, theissue of income distribution between societal members is likely to stay withinthe private or individual sphere. Conversely, countries with high trust amongsocietal members exhibit higher levels of income distribution by delegatingmore responsibility to public institutions, reflected in higher tax revenues andmore progressive tax structures.

Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

2017-05-09

Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This "confidence weighting" implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain's learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences.

Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning

Science.gov (United States)

Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

2017-01-01

Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This “confidence weighting” implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain’s learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences. PMID:28439014

Graphical interpretation of confidence curves in rankit plots

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Blaabjerg, Ole; Andersen, Marianne

2004-01-01

A well-known transformation from the bell-shaped Gaussian (normal) curve to a straight line in the rankit plot is investigated, and a tool for evaluation of the distribution of reference groups is presented. It is based on the confidence intervals for percentiles of the calculated Gaussian distri...

How do regulators measure public confidence?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmitt, A.; Besenyei, E.

2006-01-01

The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. - There are some important elements of confidence: visibility, satisfaction, credibility and reputation. The latter can consist of trust, positive image and knowledge of the role the organisation plays. A good reputation is hard to achieve but easy to lose. - There is a need to define what public confidence is and what to measure. The difficulty is that confidence is a matter of perception of the public, so what we try to measure is the perception. - It is controversial how to take into account the results of confidence measurement because of the influence of the context. It is not an exact science, results should be examined cautiously and surveys should be conducted frequently, at least every two years. - Different experiences were explained: - Quantitative surveys - among the general public or more specific groups like the media; - Qualitative research - with test groups and small panels; - Semi-quantitative studies - among stakeholders who have regular contracts with the regulatory body. It is not clear if the results should be shared with the public or just with other authorities and governmental organisations. - Efforts are needed to increase visibility, which is a prerequisite for confidence. - A practical example of organizing an emergency exercise and an information campaign without taking into account the real concerns of the people was given to show how public confidence can be decreased. - We learned about a new method - the so-called socio-drama - which addresses another issue also connected to confidence - the notion of understanding between stakeholders around a nuclear site. It is another way of looking at confidence in a more restricted group. (authors)

Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Urbatsch, T.J.

1995-11-01

MCNP's criticality methodology and some basic statistics are reviewed. Confidence intervals are discussed, as well as how to build them and their importance in the presentation of a Monte Carlo result. The combination of MCNP's three k eff estimators is shown, theoretically and empirically, by statistical studies and examples, to be the best k eff estimator. The method of combining estimators is based on a solid theoretical foundation, namely, the Gauss-Markov Theorem in regard to the least squares method. The confidence intervals of the combined estimator are also shown to have correct coverage rates for the examples considered

A high-confidence interaction map identifies SIRT1 as a mediator of acetylation of USP22 and the SAGA coactivator complex.

Science.gov (United States)

Armour, Sean M; Bennett, Eric J; Braun, Craig R; Zhang, Xiao-Yong; McMahon, Steven B; Gygi, Steven P; Harper, J Wade; Sinclair, David A

2013-04-01

Although many functions and targets have been attributed to the histone and protein deacetylase SIRT1, a comprehensive analysis of SIRT1 binding proteins yielding a high-confidence interaction map has not been established. Using a comparative statistical analysis of binding partners, we have assembled a high-confidence SIRT1 interactome. Employing this method, we identified the deubiquitinating enzyme ubiquitin-specific protease 22 (USP22), a component of the deubiquitinating module (DUBm) of the SAGA transcriptional coactivating complex, as a SIRT1-interacting partner. We found that this interaction is highly specific, requires the ZnF-UBP domain of USP22, and is disrupted by the inactivating H363Y mutation within SIRT1. Moreover, we show that USP22 is acetylated on multiple lysine residues and that alteration of a single lysine (K129) within the ZnF-UBP domain is sufficient to alter interaction of the DUBm with the core SAGA complex. Furthermore, USP22-mediated recruitment of SIRT1 activity promotes the deacetylation of individual SAGA complex components. Our results indicate an important role of SIRT1-mediated deacetylation in regulating the formation of DUBm subcomplexes within the larger SAGA complex.

The Great Recession and confidence in homeownership

OpenAIRE

Anat Bracha; Julian Jamison

2013-01-01

Confidence in homeownership shifts for those who personally experienced real estate loss during the Great Recession. Older Americans are confident in the value of homeownership. Younger Americans are less confident.

Social media sentiment and consumer confidence

OpenAIRE

Daas, Piet J.H.; Puts, Marco J.H.

2014-01-01

Changes in the sentiment of Dutch public social media messages were compared with changes in monthly consumer confidence over a period of three-and-a-half years, revealing that both were highly correlated (up to r = 0.9) and that both series cointegrated. This phenomenon is predominantly affected by changes in the sentiment of all Dutch public Facebook messages. The inclusion of various selections of public Twitter messages improved this association and the response to changes in sentiment. G...

Confidence as a barrier to the use of problem-based learning in veterinary undergraduate students.

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Tarlinton, Rachael E; Yon, Lisa; Klisch, Karl; Tötemeyer, Sabine; Gough, Kevin C

2011-01-01

Problem-based or case-based learning is a popular method of instruction in clinical degrees such as veterinary science, nursing, and medicine. It is difficult, however, for students to adapt to this learning method, and this difficulty has been well described. The present study surveyed first-year undergraduate veterinary students at the University of Nottingham about the challenges they faced upon beginning problem-based learning sessions. A surprisingly large percentage of students (36% of females and 38% of males) reported a lack of confidence in speaking in front of the other students as a concern they experienced during their first term. Conversely, only 10% of the female students (and none of the male students) reported overconfidence as a problem. This is in contrast to the perceptions of the staff members who facilitated the sessions who reported that 14% of the students exhibited underconfidence and 14% exhibited overconfidence. The difference between the female and male students' responses as well as the difference between the perceptions of students and those of facilitators is statistically significant (G-test p<.05).

Comparison of physical impairment, functional, and psychosocial measures based on fear of reinjury/lack of confidence and return-to-sport status after ACL reconstruction.

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Lentz, Trevor A; Zeppieri, Giorgio; George, Steven Z; Tillman, Susan M; Moser, Michael W; Farmer, Kevin W; Chmielewski, Terese L

2015-02-01

Fear of reinjury and lack of confidence influence return-to-sport outcomes after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction. The physical, psychosocial, and functional recovery of patients reporting fear of reinjury or lack of confidence as their primary barrier to resuming sports participation is unknown. To compare physical impairment, functional, and psychosocial measures between subgroups based on return-to-sport status and fear of reinjury/lack of confidence in the return-to-sport stage and to determine the association of physical impairment and psychosocial measures with function for each subgroup at 6 months and 1 year after surgery. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Physical impairment (quadriceps index [QI], quadriceps strength/body weight [QSBW], hamstring:quadriceps strength ratio [HQ ratio], pain intensity), self-report of function (International Knee Documentation Committee [IKDC]), and psychosocial (Tampa Scale for Kinesiophobia-shortened form [TSK-11]) measures were collected at 6 months and 1 year after surgery in 73 patients with ACL reconstruction. At 1 year, subjects were divided into "return-to-sport" (YRTS) or "not return-to-sport" (NRTS) subgroups based on their self-reported return to preinjury sport status. Patients in the NRTS subgroup were subcategorized as NRTS-Fear/Confidence if fear of reinjury/lack of confidence was the primary reason for not returning to sports, and all others were categorized as NRTS-Other. A total of 46 subjects were assigned to YRTS, 13 to NRTS-Other, and 14 to NRTS-Fear/Confidence. Compared with the YRTS subgroup, the NRTS-Fear/Confidence subgroup was older and had lower QSBW, lower IKDC score, and higher TSK-11 score at 6 months and 1 year; however, they had similar pain levels. In the NRTS-Fear/Confidence subgroup, the IKDC score was associated with QSBW and pain at 6 months and QSBW, QI, pain, and TSK-11 scores at 1 year. Elevated pain-related fear of movement/reinjury, quadriceps weakness, and

The Effects of Smartphone-based Nebulizer Therapy Education on Parents' Knowledge and Confidence of Performance in Caring for Children with Respiratory Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jung Min; Kim, Shin-Jeong; Min, Hae Young

This study aimed to identify the effects of smartphone-based nebulizer therapy education on the knowledge and confidence of parents while performing care for their children with respiratory disease. This quasi-experimental study employed a pretest-posttest design using a nonequivalent control group. Data were collected from children's parents who had not used nebulizer therapy for their children previously. Both the groups were given nebulizer therapy education using the same content but different learning methods. The experimental group (n=36) was taught using smartphones, while the control group (n=36) was taught using verbal and paper-based methods. The data were analyzed using the Chi Square test, repeated measures analysis of variance, and t-test. The mean scores on knowledge improvement (F=100.949, psmartphone-based education on nebulizer therapy might be effective in improving parents' knowledge and confidence in performing care for their children. This study suggests that smartphone-based education needs to be considered as an effective educational intervention in providing nursing support for parents of children with respiratory disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Institutional Confidence in the United States: Attitudes of Secular Americans

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isabella Kasselstrand

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The First Amendment to the United States’ Constitution addresses freedom of religion and the separation of church and state. However, the historical influence of religion in laws, policies, and political representation have left secular individuals feeling excluded. At the same time, levels of confidence in social and political institutions in the United States are at an all-time low. This begs the question: Is there a relationship between secularity and confidence in various social and political institutions (e.g. the armed forces, churches, major companies, government, police, and political parties? This question is examined using data on the United States from the World Values Survey from 1995–2011. While controlling for a range of key demographics, the findings show a negative relationship between secularity and institutional confidence. More specifically, atheists and nonreligious individuals are less likely than those who are religious to have confidence in all six institutions. Based on previous literature and the empirical evidence presented in this study, we argue that overall lower levels of institutional confidence among secular Americans is an outcome of the exclusion of such individuals from American social life. Thus, it highlights the importance of addressing the stereotypes and prejudice that this minority group faces.

The Relationship between a Women's Leadership Development Program and Participant Self-Confidence

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Jennings, Janelle Perron

2009-01-01

According to Lundeberg, Fox, and Punccohar (1994), the reason that there are fewer women in certain professions is because of a lack of self-confidence. In a review of the literature, they found studies reporting a lack of self-confidence in sixth-grade girls, high school students, and women in undergraduate and graduate school. In her work on…

Using the Reliability Theory for Assessing the Decision Confidence Probability for Comparative Life Cycle Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Wei; Larrey-Lassalle, Pyrène; Faure, Thierry; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Roux, Philippe; Mathias, Jean-Denis

2016-03-01

Comparative decision making process is widely used to identify which option (system, product, service, etc.) has smaller environmental footprints and for providing recommendations that help stakeholders take future decisions. However, the uncertainty problem complicates the comparison and the decision making. Probability-based decision support in LCA is a way to help stakeholders in their decision-making process. It calculates the decision confidence probability which expresses the probability of a option to have a smaller environmental impact than the one of another option. Here we apply the reliability theory to approximate the decision confidence probability. We compare the traditional Monte Carlo method with a reliability method called FORM method. The Monte Carlo method needs high computational time to calculate the decision confidence probability. The FORM method enables us to approximate the decision confidence probability with fewer simulations than the Monte Carlo method by approximating the response surface. Moreover, the FORM method calculates the associated importance factors that correspond to a sensitivity analysis in relation to the probability. The importance factors allow stakeholders to determine which factors influence their decision. Our results clearly show that the reliability method provides additional useful information to stakeholders as well as it reduces the computational time.

Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.

Science.gov (United States)

Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

2017-02-01

With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.

Errors and Predictors of Confidence in Condom Use amongst Young Australians Attending a Music Festival

OpenAIRE

Hall, Karina M.; Brieger, Daniel G.; De Silva, Sukhita H.; Pfister, Benjamin F.; Youlden, Daniel J.; John-Leader, Franklin; Pit, Sabrina W.

2016-01-01

Objectives. To determine the confidence and ability to use condoms correctly and consistently and the predictors of confidence in young Australians attending a festival. Methods. 288 young people aged 18 to 29 attending a mixed-genre music festival completed a survey measuring demographics, self-reported confidence using condoms, ability to use condoms, and issues experienced when using condoms in the past 12 months. Results. Self-reported confidence using condoms was high (77%). Multivariate...

Distribution of the product confidence limits for the indirect effect: Program PRODCLIN

Science.gov (United States)

MacKinnon, David P.; Fritz, Matthew S.; Williams, Jason; Lockwood, Chondra M.

2010-01-01

This article describes a program, PRODCLIN (distribution of the PRODuct Confidence Limits for INdirect effects), written for SAS, SPSS, and R, that computes confidence limits for the product of two normal random variables. The program is important because it can be used to obtain more accurate confidence limits for the indirect effect, as demonstrated in several recent articles (MacKinnon, Lockwood, & Williams, 2004; Pituch, Whittaker, & Stapleton, 2005). Tests of the significance of and confidence limits for indirect effects based on the distribution of the product method have more accurate Type I error rates and more power than other, more commonly used tests. Values for the two paths involved in the indirect effect and their standard errors are entered in the PRODCLIN program, and distribution of the product confidence limits are computed. Several examples are used to illustrate the PRODCLIN program. The PRODCLIN programs in rich text format may be downloaded from www.psychonomic.org/archive. PMID:17958149

Building confidence: an exploration of nurses undertaking a postgraduate biological science course.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Wissen, Kim; McBride-Henry, Karen

2010-01-01

This study aimed to explore the impact of studying biological science at a postgraduate level and how this impacted on nursing practice. The term biological sciences in this research encompasses elements of physiology, genetics, biochemistry and pathophysiology. A qualitative research study was designed, that involved the dissemination of a pre- and post-course semi-structured questionnaire for a biological science course, as part of a Master of Nursing programme at a New Zealand University, thus exploring the impact of undertaking a postgraduate biological sciences course. The responses were analysed into themes, based on interpretive concepts. The primary themes revealed improvement in confidence as: confidence in communication, confidence in linking nursing theoretical knowledge to practice and confidence in clinical nursing knowledge. This study highlights the need to privilege clinically-derived nursing knowledge, and that confidence in this nursing knowledge and clinical practice can be instilled through employing the model of theory-guided practice.

Towards confidence in transport safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robison, R.W.

1992-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) plans to demonstrate to the public that high-level waste can be transported safely to the proposed repository. The author argues US DOE should begin now to demonstrate its commitment to safety by developing an extraordinary safety program for nuclear cargo it is now shipping. The program for current shipments should be developed with State, Tribal, and local officials. Social scientists should be involved in evaluating the effect of the safety program on public confidence. The safety program developed in cooperation with western states for shipments to the Waste Isolation Pilot plant is a good basis for designing that extraordinary safety program

Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

Science.gov (United States)

McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

2006-01-01

The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D

2015-12-01

Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience-approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain-to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This "emotor" control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on "confidence." Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior.

Empowerment as Interactions that Generate Self-Confidence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poder, Poul

2010-01-01

to address this gap in understanding by theorizing how confidence and other positive emotions contribute to personal agency, which is an essential aspect of the empowerment process.                       It is generally understood that confidence – meaning faith in oneself as opposed to conceit or arrogance...... by particular social interactions that promote recognition and access to relevant resources for action. Drawing on emotion-focused sociological theory about agency and emotional energy, and Fredrickson’s ‘build and broaden’ theory of positive emotions, I argue that the focus on consciousness and intentionality...... as the defining features of human agency has led us to downplay the fact that agency is primarily an emotional phenomenon. As such, it is also dynamic and situational, since it is highly dependent on interactions that engender emotional energy and positive emotions that fuel and widen agency. As an example...

A study on effects of packaging characteristics on consumer's purchasing confidence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naser Azad

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Packaging plays an important role on marketing products and services in many competitive environments. A good packaging can increase sales of products, reduces the level of inventory, which yields to higher profitability. In this paper, we study the relationship between a good packaging program and customer's confidence as well as customer's attraction on purchasing goods and services. The paper uses a questionnaire based on Likert scale and distributes among the target population of this survey and the information of packaging are divided into two groups of visibility and informative. The results indicate that a good and label with detailed and precise information on product could significantly impact customer's confidence while other visible information do not have much impact on customer's confidence.

Evaluating best educational practices, student satisfaction, and self-confidence in simulation: A descriptive study.

Science.gov (United States)

Zapko, Karen A; Ferranto, Mary Lou Gemma; Blasiman, Rachael; Shelestak, Debra

2018-01-01

The National League for Nursing (NLN) has endorsed simulation as a necessary teaching approach to prepare students for the demanding role of professional nursing. Questions arise about the suitability of simulation experiences to educate students. Empirical support for the effect of simulation on patient outcomes is sparse. Most studies on simulation report only anecdotal results rather than data obtained using evaluative tools. The aim of this study was to examine student perception of best educational practices in simulation and to evaluate their satisfaction and self-confidence in simulation. This study was a descriptive study designed to explore students' perceptions of the simulation experience over a two-year period. Using the Jeffries framework, a Simulation Day was designed consisting of serial patient simulations using high and medium fidelity simulators and live patient actors. The setting for the study was a regional campus of a large Midwestern Research 2 university. The convenience sample consisted of 199 participants and included sophomore, junior, and senior nursing students enrolled in the baccalaureate nursing program. The Simulation Days consisted of serial patient simulations using high and medium fidelity simulators and live patient actors. Participants rotated through four scenarios that corresponded to their level in the nursing program. Data was collected in two consecutive years. Participants completed both the Educational Practices Questionnaire (Student Version) and the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning Scale. Results provide strong support for using serial simulation as a learning tool. Students were satisfied with the experience, felt confident in their performance, and felt the simulations were based on sound educational practices and were important for learning. Serial simulations and having students experience simulations more than once in consecutive years is a valuable method of clinical instruction. When

Confidence with and Barriers to Serious Illness Communication: A National Survey of Hospitalists.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenberg, Leah B; Greenwald, Jeff; Caponi, Bartho; Doshi, Ami; Epstein, Howard; Frank, Jeff; Lindenberger, Elizabeth; Marzano, Nick; Mills, Lynnea M; Razzak, Rab; Risser, James; Anderson, Wendy G

2017-09-01

To describe the concerns, confidence, and barriers of practicing hospitalists around serious illness communication. Hospitalist physicians are optimally positioned to provide primary palliative care, yet their experiences in serious illness communication are not well described. Web-based survey, conducted in May 2016. The survey link was distributed via email to 4000 members of the Society of Hospital Medicine. The 39-item survey assessed frequency of concerns about serious illness communication, confidence for common tasks, and barriers using Likert-type scales. It was developed by the authors based on prior work, a focus group, and feedback from pilot respondents. We received 332 completed surveys. On most or every shift, many participants reported having concerns about a patient's or family's understanding of prognosis (53%) or the patient's code status (63%). Most participants were either confident or very confident in discussing goals of care (93%) and prognosis (87%). Fewer were confident or very confident in responding to patients or families who had not accepted the seriousness of an illness (59%) or in managing conflict (50%). Other frequently cited barriers were lack of time, lack of prior discussions in the outpatient setting, unrealistic prognostic expectations from other physicians, limited institutional support, and difficulty finding records of previous discussions. Our results suggest opportunities to improve hospitalists' ability to lead serious illness communication by increasing the time hospitalists have for discussions, improving documentation systems and communication between inpatient and outpatient clinicians, and targeted training on challenging communication scenarios.

A problem with double-blind photospread procedures: photospread administrators use one eyewitness's confidence to influence the identification of another eyewitness.

Science.gov (United States)

Douglass, Amy Bradfield; Smith, Caroline; Fraser-Thill, Rebecca

2005-10-01

In Experiment 1, photospread administrators (PAs, N = 50) showed a target-absent photospread to a confederate eyewitness (CW), who was randomly assigned to identify one photo with either high or low confidence. PAs subsequently administered the same target-absent photospread to participant eyewitnesses (PWs, N = 50), all of whom had viewed a live staged crime 1 week earlier. CWs were rated by the PAs as significantly more confident in the high-confidence condition versus low-confidence condition. More importantly, the confidence of the CW affected the identification decision of the PW. In the low-confidence condition, the photo identified by the CW was identified by the PW significantly more than the other photos; there was no significant difference in photo choice in the high-confidence condition. In spite of the obvious influence exerted in the low-confidence condition, observers were not able to detect bias in the photospread procedures. A second experiment was conducted to test a post-hoc explanation for the results of Experiment 1: PAs exerted influence in the low-confidence condition because they perceived the task as more difficult for the eyewitness than in the high-confidence condition. Independent observers (N = 84) rated the difficulty of the confederate's task as higher in the low-confidence condition compared with the high-confidence condition, suggesting that expectations of task difficulty might be driving the effect observed in Experiment 1. Results support recommendations for double-blind photospreads and emphasize that the same investigator should not administer photo lineups to multiple eyewitnesses in an investigation.

Assessment of risk to wildlife from ionising radiation: can initial screening tiers be used with a high level of confidence?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beresford, N A; Barnett, C L; Hosseini, A; Brown, J E; Cailes, C; Copplestone, D; Beaugelin-Seiller, K

2010-01-01

A number of models are being used to assess the potential environmental impact of releases of radioactivity. These often use a tiered assessment structure whose first tier is designed to be highly conservative and simple to use. An aim of using this initial tier is to identify sites of negligible concern and to remove them from further consideration with a high degree of confidence. In this paper we compare the screening assessment outputs of three freely available models. The outputs of these models varied considerably in terms of estimated risk quotient (RQ) and the radionuclide-organism combinations identified as being the most limiting. A number of factors are identified as contributing to this variability: values of transfer parameters (concentration ratios and K d ) used; organisms considered; different input options and how these are utilised in the assessment; assumptions as regards secular equilibrium; geometries and exposure scenarios. This large variation in RQ values between models means that the level of confidence required by users is not achieved. We recommend that the factors contributing to the variation in screening assessments be subjected to further investigation so that they can be more fully understood and assessors (and those reviewing assessment outputs) can better justify and evaluate the results obtained.

Errors and Predictors of Confidence in Condom Use amongst Young Australians Attending a Music Festival.

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Karina M; Brieger, Daniel G; De Silva, Sukhita H; Pfister, Benjamin F; Youlden, Daniel J; John-Leader, Franklin; Pit, Sabrina W

2016-01-01

Objectives . To determine the confidence and ability to use condoms correctly and consistently and the predictors of confidence in young Australians attending a festival. Methods . 288 young people aged 18 to 29 attending a mixed-genre music festival completed a survey measuring demographics, self-reported confidence using condoms, ability to use condoms, and issues experienced when using condoms in the past 12 months. Results . Self-reported confidence using condoms was high (77%). Multivariate analyses showed confidence was associated with being male ( P < 0.001) and having had five or more lifetime sexual partners ( P = 0.038). Reading packet instructions was associated with increased condom use confidence ( P = 0.011). Amongst participants who had used a condom in the last year, 37% had experienced the condom breaking and 48% had experienced the condom slipping off during intercourse and 51% when withdrawing the penis after sex. Conclusion . This population of young people are experiencing high rates of condom failures and are using them inconsistently or incorrectly, demonstrating the need to improve attitudes, behaviour, and knowledge about correct and consistent condom usage. There is a need to empower young Australians, particularly females, with knowledge and confidence in order to improve condom use self-efficacy.

Communicating Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk, Uncertainty and Expert Confidence: Induced Seismicity of Deep Geothermal Energy and Shale Gas.

Science.gov (United States)

Knoblauch, Theresa A K; Stauffacher, Michael; Trutnevyte, Evelina

2018-04-01

Subsurface energy activities entail the risk of induced seismicity including low-probability high-consequence (LPHC) events. For designing respective risk communication, the scientific literature lacks empirical evidence of how the public reacts to different written risk communication formats about such LPHC events and to related uncertainty or expert confidence. This study presents findings from an online experiment (N = 590) that empirically tested the public's responses to risk communication about induced seismicity and to different technology frames, namely deep geothermal energy (DGE) and shale gas (between-subject design). Three incrementally different formats of written risk communication were tested: (i) qualitative, (ii) qualitative and quantitative, and (iii) qualitative and quantitative with risk comparison. Respondents found the latter two the easiest to understand, the most exact, and liked them the most. Adding uncertainty and expert confidence statements made the risk communication less clear, less easy to understand and increased concern. Above all, the technology for which risks are communicated and its acceptance mattered strongly: respondents in the shale gas condition found the identical risk communication less trustworthy and more concerning than in the DGE conditions. They also liked the risk communication overall less. For practitioners in DGE or shale gas projects, the study shows that the public would appreciate efforts in describing LPHC risks with numbers and optionally risk comparisons. However, there seems to be a trade-off between aiming for transparency by disclosing uncertainty and limited expert confidence, and thereby decreasing clarity and increasing concern in the view of the public. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Changing job seekers' image perceptions during recruitment visits: the moderating role of belief confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Slaughter, Jerel E; Cable, Daniel M; Turban, Daniel B

2014-11-01

The purpose of this study was to understand how an important construct in social psychology-confidence in one's beliefs-could both (a) influence the effectiveness of organizations' recruiting processes and (b) be changed during recruitment. Using a sample of recruits to a branch of the United States military, the authors studied belief confidence before and after recruits' formal visits to the organization's recruiting stations. Personal sources of information had a stronger influence on recruits' belief confidence than impersonal sources. Moreover, recruits' confidence in their initial beliefs affected how perceptions of the recruiter changed their employer images. Among participants with low-initial confidence, the relation between recruitment experiences and employer images was positive and linear across the whole range of recruitment experiences. Among recruits with high-initial confidence, however, the recruitment experience-image relationship was curvilinear, such that recruitment experiences were related to images only at more positive recruitment experiences. The relationship between recruitment experiences and changes in belief confidence was also curvilinear, such that only more positive recruitment experiences led to changes in confidence. These results indicate not only that belief confidence influences the effectiveness of recruiting efforts but also that recruiting efforts can influence belief confidence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Using Closed-Set Speaker Identification Score Confidence to Enhance Audio-Based Collaborative Filtering for Multiple Users

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shepstone, Sven Ewan; Tan, Zheng-Hua; Kristoffersen, Miklas Strøm

2018-01-01

In this paper, we utilize a closed-set speaker-identification approach to convey the ratings needed for collaborative filtering-based recommendation. Instead of explicitly providing a rating for a given program, users use a speech interface to dictate the desired rating after watching a movie. Due...... to the inaccuracies that may be imposed by a state-of-the-art speaker identification system, it is possible to mistake a user for another user in the household, especially when the users exhibit similar or identical age and gender demographics. This leads to the undesirable effect of injecting unwanted ratings...... into the collaborative rating matrix, and when the users have different tastes, can result in the recommendation of undesirable items. We therefore propose a simple confidence-based heuristic that utilizes the log-likelihood scores from the speaker identification front-end. The algorithm limits the degree to which...

Impact of an Advanced Cardiac Life Support Simulation Laboratory Experience on Pharmacy Student Confidence and Knowledge.

Science.gov (United States)

Maxwell, Whitney D; Mohorn, Phillip L; Haney, Jason S; Phillips, Cynthia M; Lu, Z Kevin; Clark, Kimberly; Corboy, Alex; Ragucci, Kelly R

2016-10-25

Objective. To assess the impact of an advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) simulation on pharmacy student confidence and knowledge. Design. Third-year pharmacy students participated in a simulation experience that consisted of team roles training, high-fidelity ACLS simulations, and debriefing. Students completed a pre/postsimulation confidence and knowledge assessment. Assessment. Overall, student knowledge assessment scores and student confidence scores improved significantly. Student confidence and knowledge changes from baseline were not significantly correlated. Conversely, a significant, weak positive correlation between presimulation studying and both presimulation confidence and presimulation knowledge was discovered. Conclusions. Overall, student confidence and knowledge assessment scores in ACLS significantly improved from baseline; however, student confidence and knowledge were not significantly correlated.

Nuclear power: restoring public confidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnold, L.

1986-01-01

The paper concerns a one day conference on nuclear power organised by the Centre for Science Studies and Science Policy, Lancaster, April 1986. Following the Chernobyl reactor accident, the conference concentrated on public confidence in nuclear power. Causes of lack of public confidence, public perceptions of risk, and the effect of Chernobyl in the United Kingdom, were all discussed. A Select Committee on the Environment examined the problems of radioactive waste disposal. (U.K.)

Effect of False Confidence on Asset Allocation Decisions of Households

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Swarn Chatterjee

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates whether false confidence, as characterized by a high level of personal mastery and a low level of intelligence (IQ, results in frequent investor trading and subsequent investor wealth erosion across time. Using the National Longitudinal Survey (NLSY79, change in wealth and asset allocation across time is modeled as a function of various behavioral, socio-economic and demographic variables drawn from prior literature.  Findings of this research reveal that false confidence is indeed a predictor of trading activity in individual investment assets, and it also has a negative impact on individual wealth creation across time.

Metacognition and Confidence: Comparing Math to Other Academic Subjects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shanna eErickson

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

Organic labbeling systems and consumer confidence

OpenAIRE

Sønderskov, Kim Mannemar; Daugbjerg, Carsten

2009-01-01

A research analysis suggests that a state certification and labelling system creates confidence in organic labelling systems and consequently green consumerism. Danish consumers have higher levels of confidence in the labelling system than consumers in countries where the state plays a minor role in labelling and certification.

False memories and memory confidence in borderline patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Schilling, Lisa; Wingenfeld, Katja; Spitzer, Carsten; Nagel, Matthias; Moritz, Steffen

2013-12-01

Mixed results have been obtained regarding memory in patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Prior reports and anecdotal evidence suggests that patients with BPD are prone to false memories but this assumption has to been put to firm empirical test, yet. Memory accuracy and confidence was assessed in 20 BPD patients and 22 healthy controls using a visual variant of the false memory (Deese-Roediger-McDermott) paradigm which involved a negative and a positive-valenced picture. Groups did not differ regarding veridical item recognition. Importantly, patients did not display more false memories than controls. At trend level, borderline patients rated more items as new with high confidence compared to healthy controls. The results tentatively suggest that borderline patients show uncompromised visual memory functions and display no increased susceptibility for distorted memories. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification of High Confidence Nuclear Forensics Signatures. Results of a Coordinated Research Project and Related Research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2017-08-01

The results of a Coordinated Research Project and related research on the identification of high confidence nuclear forensic isotopic, chemical and physical data characteristics, or signatures, provides information on signatures that can help identify the origin and history of nuclear and other radioactive material encountered out of regulatory control. This research report compiles findings from investigations of materials obtained from throughout the nuclear fuel cycle to include radioactive sources. The report further provides recent results used to identify, analyse in the laboratory, predict and interpret these signatures relative to the requirements of a nuclear forensics examination. The report describes some of the controls on the incorporation and persistence of these signatures in these materials as well as their potential use in a national system of identification to include a national nuclear forensics library.

Computationally efficient SVM multi-class image recognition with confidence measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makili, Lazaro; Vega, Jesus; Dormido-Canto, Sebastian; Pastor, Ignacio; Murari, Andrea

2011-01-01

Typically, machine learning methods produce non-qualified estimates, i.e. the accuracy and reliability of the predictions are not provided. Transductive predictors are very recent classifiers able to provide, simultaneously with the prediction, a couple of values (confidence and credibility) to reflect the quality of the prediction. Usually, a drawback of the transductive techniques for huge datasets and large dimensionality is the high computational time. To overcome this issue, a more efficient classifier has been used in a multi-class image classification problem in the TJ-II stellarator database. It is based on the creation of a hash function to generate several 'one versus the rest' classifiers for every class. By using Support Vector Machines as the underlying classifier, a comparison between the pure transductive approach and the new method has been performed. In both cases, the success rates are high and the computation time with the new method is up to 0.4 times the old one.

Search for high confidence AGN candidates and its counterparts in the Fermi-LAT unassociated sample using machine learning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Einecke, Sabrina [Technical University Dortmund (Germany); Doert, Marlene [Ruhr-University Bochum (Germany)

2016-07-01

The third Fermi-LAT source catalog (3FGL) is the deepest all-sky survey in gamma-rays and comprises 3033 point sources. While for 2023 sources plausible associations have been found, 1010 remain unassociated. A search for active galactic nuclei (AGN) will help to reduce the number of unassociated sources, and will increase our knowledge of the population of gamma-ray emitting AGN. Several machine learning approaches applied to Fermi data have shown the capability of this method. The extension to multiwavelength data improves these studies, and at the same time offers the possibility to determine the most likely corresponding counterpart. As the 95% confidence region of the localization by the Fermi measurement is in the order of several arcminutes, generally multiple point sources at different wavelengths are located within this region and the association is ambiguous. To figure out the most likely counterpart, the associated sample is used to train machine learning classifiers as e.g. the random forest. Therefore, all possible combinations of the Fermi measurement and the measurements at a second wavelength are considered for a particular source. In this talk, the statistical model to obtain high confidence AGN counterpart candidates is described as well as the validation of the model to estimate the performance.

Metacognitive Confidence Increases with, but Does Not Determine, Visual Perceptual Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Zizlsperger, Leopold; Kümmel, Florian; Haarmeier, Thomas

2016-01-01

While perceptual learning increases objective sensitivity, the effects on the constant interaction of the process of perception and its metacognitive evaluation have been rarely investigated. Visual perception has been described as a process of probabilistic inference featuring metacognitive evaluations of choice certainty. For visual motion perception in healthy, naive human subjects here we show that perceptual sensitivity and confidence in it increased with training. The metacognitive sensitivity-estimated from certainty ratings by a bias-free signal detection theoretic approach-in contrast, did not. Concomitant 3Hz transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS) was applied in compliance with previous findings on effective high-low cross-frequency coupling subserving signal detection. While perceptual accuracy and confidence in it improved with training, there were no statistically significant tACS effects. Neither metacognitive sensitivity in distinguishing between their own correct and incorrect stimulus classifications, nor decision confidence itself determined the subjects' visual perceptual learning. Improvements of objective performance and the metacognitive confidence in it were rather determined by the perceptual sensitivity at the outset of the experiment. Post-decision certainty in visual perceptual learning was neither independent of objective performance, nor requisite for changes in sensitivity, but rather covaried with objective performance. The exact functional role of metacognitive confidence in human visual perception has yet to be determined.

Communication confidence in persons with aphasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Babbitt, Edna M; Cherney, Leora R

2010-01-01

Communication confidence is a construct that has not been explored in the aphasia literature. Recently, national and international organizations have endorsed broader assessment methods that address quality of life and include participation, activity, and impairment domains as well as psychosocial areas. Individuals with aphasia encounter difficulties in all these areas on a daily basis in living with a communication disorder. Improvements are often reflected in narratives that are not typically included in standard assessments. This article illustrates how a new instrument measuring communication confidence might fit into a broad assessment framework and discusses the interaction of communication confidence, autonomy, and self-determination for individuals living with aphasia.

Analysis of Mathematical Communication Skills and Confidence of 10th Grader of SMK in Geometry Material Viewed from Cognitive Style

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elanda Laksinta Putri

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study were to describe the mathematical communication skills and the confidence of grade X SMK students on Van Hiele model geometry learning based on their cognitive styles. It was a qualitative descriptive research. The subjects were 2 impulsive students and 2 reflective students which were selected with MFFT instrument. The data collection techniques were mathematical communication skills tests (written and orally, interviews, documentation, attitude scale and activity observation sheets. The results showed that both written and orally, reflective students were able to meet 5 indicators of mathematical communication skills, and less meet another indicators. While, impulsive students less meet all of the mathematical communication skills indictors. The impulsive students confidence was in the medium category. In contrary, the reflective students confidence was in the high category.

Fragility estimation for seismically isolated nuclear structures by high confidence low probability of failure values and bi-linear regression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carausu, A.

1996-01-01

A method for the fragility estimation of seismically isolated nuclear power plant structure is proposed. The relationship between the ground motion intensity parameter (e.g. peak ground velocity or peak ground acceleration) and the response of isolated structures is expressed in terms of a bi-linear regression line, whose coefficients are estimated by the least-square method in terms of available data on seismic input and structural response. The notion of high confidence low probability of failure (HCLPF) value is also used for deriving compound fragility curves for coupled subsystems. (orig.)

CONFIDENCE LEVELS AND/VS. STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS TESTING IN STATISTICAL ANALYSIS. CASE STUDY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ILEANA BRUDIU

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Estimated parameters with confidence intervals and testing statistical assumptions used in statistical analysis to obtain conclusions on research from a sample extracted from the population. Paper to the case study presented aims to highlight the importance of volume of sample taken in the study and how this reflects on the results obtained when using confidence intervals and testing for pregnant. If statistical testing hypotheses not only give an answer "yes" or "no" to some questions of statistical estimation using statistical confidence intervals provides more information than a test statistic, show high degree of uncertainty arising from small samples and findings build in the "marginally significant" or "almost significant (p very close to 0.05.

Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

Science.gov (United States)

Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

2017-11-01

Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

The relationship between fundamental movement skill proficiency and physical self-confidence among adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

McGrane, Bronagh; Belton, Sarahjane; Powell, Danielle; Issartel, Johann

2017-09-01

This study aims to assess fundamental movement skill (FMS) proficiency, physical self-confidence levels, and the relationship between these variables and gender differences among adolescents. Three hundred and ninety five adolescents aged 13.78 years (SD = ±1.2) from 20 schools were involved in this study. The Test of Gross Motor Development-2nd Edition (TGMD), TGMD-2 and Victorian Skills Manual were used to assess 15 FMS. Participants' physical self-confidence was also assessed using a valid skill-specific scale. A significant correlation was observed between FMS proficiency and physical self-confidence for females only (r = 0.305, P < 0.001). Males rated themselves as having significantly higher physical self-confidence levels than females (P = 0.001). Males scored significantly higher than females in FMS proficiency (P < 0.05), and the lowest physical self-confidence group were significantly less proficient at FMS than the medium (P < 0.001) and high physical self-confidence groups (P < 0.05). This information not only highlights those in need of assistance to develop their FMS but will also facilitate in the development of an intervention which aims to improve physical self-confidence and FMS proficiency.

Validation of an instrument to assess evidence-based practice knowledge, attitudes, access, and confidence in the dental environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hendricson, William D; Rugh, John D; Hatch, John P; Stark, Debra L; Deahl, Thomas; Wallmann, Elizabeth R

2011-02-01

This article reports the validation of an assessment instrument designed to measure the outcomes of training in evidence-based practice (EBP) in the context of dentistry. Four EBP dimensions are measured by this instrument: 1) understanding of EBP concepts, 2) attitudes about EBP, 3) evidence-accessing methods, and 4) confidence in critical appraisal. The instrument-the Knowledge, Attitudes, Access, and Confidence Evaluation (KACE)-has four scales, with a total of thirty-five items: EBP knowledge (ten items), EBP attitudes (ten), accessing evidence (nine), and confidence (six). Four elements of validity were assessed: consistency of items within the KACE scales (extent to which items within a scale measure the same dimension), discrimination (capacity to detect differences between individuals with different training or experience), responsiveness (capacity to detect the effects of education on trainees), and test-retest reliability. Internal consistency of scales was assessed by analyzing responses of second-year dental students, dental residents, and dental faculty members using Cronbach coefficient alpha, a statistical measure of reliability. Discriminative validity was assessed by comparing KACE scores for the three groups. Responsiveness was assessed by comparing pre- and post-training responses for dental students and residents. To measure test-retest reliability, the full KACE was completed twice by a class of freshman dental students seventeen days apart, and the knowledge scale was completed twice by sixteen faculty members fourteen days apart. Item-to-scale consistency ranged from 0.21 to 0.78 for knowledge, 0.57 to 0.83 for attitude, 0.70 to 0.84 for accessing evidence, and 0.87 to 0.94 for confidence. For discrimination, ANOVA and post hoc testing by the Tukey-Kramer method revealed significant score differences among students, residents, and faculty members consistent with education and experience levels. For responsiveness to training, dental students

Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Oshins

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

Re-thinking accountability: trust versus confidence in medical practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Checkland, K; Marshall, M; Harrison, S

2004-04-01

In seeking to prevent a reoccurrence of scandals such as that involving cardiac surgery in Bristol, the UK government has adopted a model of regulation that uses rules and surveillance as a way of both improving the quality of care delivered and increasing confidence in healthcare institutions. However, this approach may actually act to reduce confidence and trust while also reducing the moral motivation of practitioners. Accountability in health care is discussed, and it is suggested that openness about the difficult dilemmas that arise when practitioners have a duty to be accountable to more than one audience may be an alternative means of restoring trust. A greater emphasis on the sharing of information between individual health professionals and their patients would increase trust and would allow patients to hold their doctors to account for the quality of care they receive. Concentrating more on developing trust by the sharing of information and less on the futile search for complete confidence in systems and rules may improve the quality of care delivered while also nurturing the moral motivation of professionals upon which the delivery of high quality health care depends.

Believing in "us": exploring leaders' capacity to enhance team confidence and performance by building a sense of shared social identity.

Science.gov (United States)

Fransen, Katrien; Haslam, S Alexander; Steffens, Niklas K; Vanbeselaere, Norbert; De Cuyper, Bert; Boen, Filip

2015-03-01

The present study examined the impact of athlete leaders' perceived confidence on their teammates' confidence and performance. Male basketball players (N = 102) participated in groups of 4. To manipulate leaders' team confidence, the appointed athlete leader of each newly formed basketball team (a confederate) expressed either high or low team confidence. The results revealed an effect of team confidence contagion such that team members had greater team confidence when the leader expressed high (rather than low) confidence in the team's success. Second, the present study sought to explain the mechanisms through which this contagion occurs. In line with the social identity approach to leadership, structural equation modeling demonstrated that this effect was partially mediated by team members' increased team identification. Third, findings indicated that when leaders expressed high team confidence, team members' performance increased during the test, but when leaders expressed low confidence, team members' performance decreased. Athlete leaders thus have the capacity to shape team members' confidence--and hence their performance--in both positive and negative ways. In particular, by showing that they believe in "our team," leaders are able not only to make "us" a psychological reality, but also to transform "us" into an effective operational unit. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Assessing Confidence in Performance Assessments Using an Evidence Support Logic Methodology: An Application of Tesla

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egan, M.; Paulley, A.; Lehman, L.; Lowe, J.; Rochette, E.; Baker, St.

2009-01-01

The assessment of uncertainties and their implications is a key requirement when undertaking performance assessment (PA) of radioactive waste facilities. Decisions based on the outcome of such assessments become translated into judgments about confidence in the information they provide. This confidence, in turn, depends on uncertainties in the underlying evidence. Even if there is a large amount of information supporting an assessment, it may be only partially relevant, incomplete or less than completely reliable. In order to develop a measure of confidence in the outcome, sources of uncertainty need to be identified and adequately addressed in the development of the PA, or in any overarching strategic decision-making processes. This paper describes a trial application of the technique of Evidence Support Logic (ESL), which has been designed for application in support of 'high stakes' decisions, where important aspects of system performance are subject to uncertainty. The aims of ESL are to identify the amount of uncertainty or conflict associated with evidence relating to a particular decision, and to guide understanding of how evidence combines to support confidence in judgments. Elicitation techniques are used to enable participants in the process to develop a logical hypothesis model that best represents the relationships between different sources of evidence to the proposition under examination. The aim is to identify key areas of subjectivity and other sources of potential bias in the use of evidence (whether for or against the proposition) to support judgments of confidence. Propagation algorithms are used to investigate the overall implications of the logic according to the strength of the underlying evidence and associated uncertainties. (authors)

Bronchoscopic Lung Cryobiopsy Increases Diagnostic Confidence in the Multidisciplinary Diagnosis of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomassetti, Sara; Wells, Athol U; Costabel, Ulrich; Cavazza, Alberto; Colby, Thomas V; Rossi, Giulio; Sverzellati, Nicola; Carloni, Angelo; Carretta, Elisa; Buccioli, Matteo; Tantalocco, Paola; Ravaglia, Claudia; Gurioli, Christian; Dubini, Alessandra; Piciucchi, Sara; Ryu, Jay H; Poletti, Venerino

2016-04-01

Surgical lung biopsy is often required for a confident multidisciplinary diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Alternative, less-invasive biopsy methods, such as bronchoscopic lung cryobiopsy (BLC), are highly desirable. To address the impact of BLC on diagnostic confidence in the multidisciplinary diagnosis of IPF. In this cross-sectional study we selected 117 patients with fibrotic interstitial lung disease without a typical usual interstitial pneumonia pattern on high-resolution computed tomography. All cases underwent lung biopsies: 58 were BLC, and 59 were surgical lung biopsy (SLB). Two clinicians, two radiologists, and two pathologists sequentially reviewed clinical-radiologic findings and biopsy results, recording at each step in the process their diagnostic impressions and confidence levels. We observed a major increase in diagnostic confidence after the addition of BLC, similar to SLB (from 29 to 63%, P = 0.0003 and from 30 to 65%, P = 0.0016 of high confidence IPF diagnosis, in the BLC group and SLB group, respectively). The overall interobserver agreement in IPF diagnosis was similar for both approaches (BLC overall kappa, 0.96; SLB overall kappa, 0.93). IPF was the most frequent diagnosis (50 and 39% in the BLC and SLB group, respectively; P = 0.23). After the addition of histopathologic information, 17% of cases in the BLC group and 19% of cases in the SLB group, mostly idiopathic nonspecific interstitial pneumonia and hypersensitivity pneumonitis, were reclassified as IPF. BLC is a new biopsy method that has a meaningful impact on diagnostic confidence in the multidisciplinary diagnosis of interstitial lung disease and may prove useful in the diagnosis of IPF. This study provides a robust rationale for future studies investigating the diagnostic accuracy of BLC compared with SLB.

The Confidence-Accuracy Relationship in Eyewitness Identification: Effects of Lineup Instructions, Foil Similarity, and Target-Absent Base Rates

Science.gov (United States)

Brewer, Neil; Wells, Gary L.

2006-01-01

Discriminating accurate from mistaken eyewitness identifications is a major issue facing criminal justice systems. This study examined whether eyewitness confidence assists such decisions under a variety of conditions using a confidence-accuracy (CA) calibration approach. Participants (N = 1,200) viewed a simulated crime and attempted 2 separate…

The cognitive approach on self-confidence of the girl students with academic failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ommolbanin Sheibani

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Background: The consequences of behavior attributed to external factors as chance, luck or help of other people are effective on one's self confidence and educational improvement. The aim of this study is to assess the effect of teaching “locus of control” on the basis of cognitive approach on Yazd high school students' self confidence.Materials and Method: This descriptive analytic research is done as an experimental project by using pre-test and post-test method on 15 first-grade high school students in Yazd city during 1387-88 educational year. The participants were chosen by the multistage cluster random sampling. Fifteen students were also chosen as the control group. The instruments used in this research were Eysenk self confidence test and also the “locus of control” teaching program. A t-test was used for the statistical analysis of the present study.Results: The results of the statistical analyses showed that there is a significant difference between the experimental and control group (p=0.01 in increasing the self confidence. Also the results of the t-test revealed that there is no significant difference in the educational improvement of the experimental group before and after teaching “locus of control”.Conclusion: According to this study, teaching “locus of control” on the basis of the cognitive approach has a significant effect on the self confidence but it doesn't have any positive effect on educational improvement

Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

Earle, Timothy C

2009-06-01

The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.

49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to the...

Curling for Confidence: Psychophysical Benefits of Curling for Older Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Stone, Rachael C; Rakhamilova, Zina; Gage, William H; Baker, Joseph

2018-04-01

While physical activity is increasingly promoted for older adults, there is a paucity of sport promotion, which has distinct benefits from exercise and remains stereotypically associated with younger age. Curling is a moderately intense and safe sport that continues to gain popularity; however, no research has investigated psychophysical benefits of curling for older adults. The present study compares high-experience (20+ years; n = 63) and low-experience (<20 years; n = 53) curlers (aged 60+ years) with older adult noncurlers (n = 44) on measures of daily functionality, balance confidence, and perceptions of the aging process. While no significant differences were found between high- and low-experience curlers, any level of experience reported significantly better functionality, physical confidence, and aging attitudes compared to noncurlers (p ≤ .05). Although further research is necessary, the results suggest that any level of curling experience can enhance older adult psychophysical well-being, and warrants consideration for physical activity promotion and falls prevention programs.

How to confidently teach EBM on foot: development and evaluation of a web-based e-learning course.

Science.gov (United States)

Weberschock, Tobias; Sorinola, Olanrewaju; Thangaratinam, Shakila; Oude Rengerink, Katrien; Arvanitis, Theodoros N; Khan, Khalid S

2013-10-01

Scarcity of well-trained clinical tutors is a key constraint in integrating teaching of evidence-based medicine (EBM) into clinical activities. We developed a web-based educational course for clinical trainers to confidently teach EBM principles in everyday practice. Its e-learning modules defined the learning objectives and incorporated video clips of practical and effective EBM teaching methods for exploiting educational opportunities in six different clinical settings. We evaluated the course with clinical tutors in different specialties across six European countries using a questionnaire to capture learning achievement against preset objectives. Among 56 tutors, 47 participants (84%) improved their scores from baseline. The mean pre-course score was 69.2 (SD=10.4), which increased to 77.3 (SD=11.7) postcourse (peffect size was moderate with a Cohen's d of 0.73. An e-learning approach incorporating videos of applied EBM teaching and learning based on real clinical scenarios in the workplace can be useful in facilitating EBM teaching on foot. It can be integrated in the continuing professional development programmes for clinical trainers.

A study of the correlation between self-confidence and professional achievement of designers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen Rain

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This study mainly investigated which mental state of designers, self-confidence or sense of inferiority, has positive effects on professional design achievement. This study attempted to find if there is correlation between designers’ self-confidence or sense of inferiority and their professional achievement. With regard to the tendency of designers’ psychological state, the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale was used to measure designers’ selfconfidence, and statistical computations were made based on gathered data. This study used correlation analysis to find if confidence level of 46 seniors of Design Department is relevant to their professional achievement. The results of the study showed that confidence level of designers has a slight correlation to professional achievement. Factors leading to the study’s findings may be the small amount of sample analyzed or may be the reason that the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale only detected the current level of self-confidence and could not give a proper feedback on designers’ self-confidence during the entire semester. In the future, the results of this study can be considered as a pre-test experiment for a more complete study, and it is expected that results of the study can be for design educators’ reference.

The Applicability of Confidence Intervals of Quantiles for the Generalized Logistic Distribution

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Shin, H.; Heo, J.; Kim, T.; Jung, Y.

2007-12-01

The generalized logistic (GL) distribution has been widely used for frequency analysis. However, there is a little study related to the confidence intervals that indicate the prediction accuracy of distribution for the GL distribution. In this paper, the estimation of the confidence intervals of quantiles for the GL distribution is presented based on the method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (ML), and probability weighted moments (PWM) and the asymptotic variances of each quantile estimator are derived as functions of the sample sizes, return periods, and parameters. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are also performed to verify the applicability of the derived confidence intervals of quantile. As the results, the relative bias (RBIAS) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the confidence intervals generally increase as return period increases and reverse as sample size increases. And PWM for estimating the confidence intervals performs better than the other methods in terms of RRMSE when the data is almost symmetric while ML shows the smallest RBIAS and RRMSE when the data is more skewed and sample size is moderately large. The GL model was applied to fit the distribution of annual maximum rainfall data. The results show that there are little differences in the estimated quantiles between ML and PWM while distinct differences in MOM.

A boost of confidence: The role of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex in memory, decision-making, and schemas.

Science.gov (United States)

Hebscher, Melissa; Gilboa, Asaf

2016-09-01

The ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) has been implicated in a wide array of functions across multiple domains. In this review, we focus on the vmPFC's involvement in mediating strategic aspects of memory retrieval, memory-related schema functions, and decision-making. We suggest that vmPFC generates a confidence signal that informs decisions and memory-guided behaviour. Confidence is central to these seemingly diverse functions: (1) Strategic retrieval: lesions to the vmPFC impair an early, automatic, and intuitive monitoring process ("feeling of rightness"; FOR) often associated with confabulation (spontaneous reporting of erroneous memories). Critically, confabulators typically demonstrate high levels of confidence in their false memories, suggesting that faulty monitoring following vmPFC damage may lead to indiscriminate confidence signals. (2) Memory schemas: the vmPFC is critically involved in instantiating and maintaining contextually relevant schemas, broadly defined as higher level knowledge structures that encapsulate lower level representational elements. The correspondence between memory retrieval cues and these activated schemas leads to FOR monitoring. Stronger, more elaborate schemas produce stronger FOR and influence confidence in the veracity of memory candidates. (3) Finally, we review evidence on the vmPFC's role in decision-making, extending this role to decision-making during memory retrieval. During non-mnemonic and mnemonic decision-making the vmPFC automatically encodes confidence. Confidence signal in the vmPFC is revealed as a non-linear relationship between a first-order monitoring assessment and second-order action or choice. Attempting to integrate the multiple functions of the vmPFC, we propose a posterior-anterior organizational principle for this region. More posterior vmPFC regions are involved in earlier, automatic, subjective, and contextually sensitive functions, while more anterior regions are involved in controlled actions

OB/GYN boot cAMP using high-fidelity human simulators: enhancing residents' perceived competency, confidence in taking a leadership role, and stress hardiness.

Science.gov (United States)

Pliego, Jose F; Wehbe-Janek, Hania; Rajab, M Hasan; Browning, Jeff L; Fothergill, Russell E

2008-01-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of an obstetrical and gynecologic (Ob/Gyn) Boot Camp simulation training on perceived technical competency, confidence in a leadership role, and stress hardiness of resident training. We conducted a prospective pilot study on the effectiveness of an Ob/Gyn Boot Camp on resident training. Residents participated in an intensive immersion in clinical simulation of common obstetrical emergencies including shoulder dystocia, neonatal resuscitation, postpartum hemorrhage, and ruptured ectopic pregnancy. After the training, residents completed a Web-based survey on their perceptions of how the Ob/Gyn Boot Camp affected their 1) technical competency in the assessment and management of their patients, 2) confidence in taking a leadership role, and 3) stress hardiness. Residents rated their perceptions on a Likert scale of 1 to 5, 1 = poor to 5 = excellent. Twenty-three (14 Ob/Gyn and 9 family medicine) residents participated in this pilot study. Eighteen (78%) residents completed the online survey; 4 Ob/Gyn and 1 family medicine resident did not complete the survey. The residents reported that the simulation training stimulated an interest in learning key skills for obstetrical and gynecologic emergencies. Ob/Gyn residents reported significant improvement in their perceived technical competence and stress hardiness after the Boot Camp. However both Ob/Gyn and family medicine residents reported no significant improvement of confidence in their leadership abilities during obstetrical emergencies after the Boot Camp. Boot Camp simulation training early in the curriculum has the potential for enhancing residents' self-assessments of confidence, competency, and stress hardiness in managing obstetrical emergencies.

Provider confidence in opioid prescribing and chronic pain management: results of the Opioid Therapy Provider Survey

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Pearson, Amy CS; Moman, Rajat N; Moeschler, Susan M; Eldrige, Jason S; Hooten, W Michael

2017-01-01

Introduction Many providers report lack of confidence in managing patients with chronic pain. Thus, the primary aim of this study was to investigate the associations of provider confidence in managing chronic pain with their practice behaviors and demographics. Materials and methods The primary outcome measure was the results of the Opioid Therapy Provider Survey, which was administered to clinicians attending a pain-focused continuing medical education conference. Nonparametric correlations were assessed using Spearman’s rho. Results Of the respondents, 55.0% were women, 92.8% were white, and 56.5% were physicians. Primary care providers accounted for 56.5% of the total respondents. The majority of respondents (60.8%) did not feel confident managing patients with chronic pain. Provider confidence in managing chronic pain was positively correlated with 1) following an opioid therapy protocol (P=0.001), 2) the perceived ability to identify patients at risk for opioid misuse (P=0.006), and 3) using a consistent practice-based approach to improve their comfort level with prescribing opioids (Pcorrelated with the perception that treating pain patients was a “problem in my practice” (P=0.005). Conclusion In this study, the majority of providers did not feel confident managing chronic pain. However, provider confidence was associated with a protocolized and consistent practice-based approach toward managing opioids and the perceived ability to identify patients at risk for opioid misuse. Future studies should investigate whether provider confidence is associated with measurable competence in managing chronic pain and explore approaches to enhance appropriate levels of confidence in caring for patients with chronic pain. PMID:28652805

Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 1. Sampling and Medical Key Parameters Calculation

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Tudor DRUGAN

2003-08-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper was to present the usefulness of the binomial distribution in studying of the contingency tables and the problems of approximation to normality of binomial distribution (the limits, advantages, and disadvantages. The classification of the medical keys parameters reported in medical literature and expressing them using the contingency table units based on their mathematical expressions restrict the discussion of the confidence intervals from 34 parameters to 9 mathematical expressions. The problem of obtaining different information starting with the computed confidence interval for a specified method, information like confidence intervals boundaries, percentages of the experimental errors, the standard deviation of the experimental errors and the deviation relative to significance level was solves through implementation in PHP programming language of original algorithms. The cases of expression, which contain two binomial variables, were separately treated. An original method of computing the confidence interval for the case of two-variable expression was proposed and implemented. The graphical representation of the expression of two binomial variables for which the variation domain of one of the variable depend on the other variable was a real problem because the most of the software used interpolation in graphical representation and the surface maps were quadratic instead of triangular. Based on an original algorithm, a module was implements in PHP in order to represent graphically the triangular surface plots. All the implementation described above was uses in computing the confidence intervals and estimating their performance for binomial distributions sample sizes and variable.

ACHIEVEMENT GOALS AND INTENSIVITY OF PHYSICAL ACTIVITY DURING FREE PLAY IN CHILDREN: THE MODERATING ROLE OF PERCEIVED SPORT CONFIDENCE

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R. Lochbaum Marc

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Purpose: to examine the moderating role of sport confidence and resultant the achievement goal profile with physical activity intensity during free play. Material: participants were 28 children participating in an after-school program. The 28 children completed measures of task and ego goal orientations and sport confidence two weeks prior to having their heart rate monitored during a free play session. Results: indicated that children with high sport confidence were characterized ( p 1.10 by higher task and ego orientations and average heart rate over the course of the free play session when compared to the low sport confidence children. The moderate sport confidence children were not significantly different than the other groups expect for ego orientation though effect sizes indicated this group tended towards being more similar to the high sport confidence group. The results were confounded as all children in the low sport confidence condition were girls. Conclusions: Sport confidence moderates physical activity intensity during free play in children and is characterized by a higher ego orientation and generally higher task orientation. But given all of the low confident children were females, intervention work is needed at early ages with girls to build sport confidence and motivations for both goal orientations to hopefully increase physical activity intensity during free play.

Econometric analysis of realized covariation: high frequency based covariance, regression, and correlation in financial economics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler; Shephard, N.

2004-01-01

This paper analyses multivariate high frequency financial data using realized covariation. We provide a new asymptotic distribution theory for standard methods such as regression, correlation analysis, and covariance. It will be based on a fixed interval of time (e.g., a day or week), allowing...... the number of high frequency returns during this period to go to infinity. Our analysis allows us to study how high frequency correlations, regressions, and covariances change through time. In particular we provide confidence intervals for each of these quantities....

Evidence for a confidence-accuracy relationship in memory for same- and cross-race faces.

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Nguyen, Thao B; Pezdek, Kathy; Wixted, John T

2017-12-01

Discrimination accuracy is usually higher for same- than for cross-race faces, a phenomenon known as the cross-race effect (CRE). According to prior research, the CRE occurs because memories for same- and cross-race faces rely on qualitatively different processes. However, according to a continuous dual-process model of recognition memory, memories that rely on qualitatively different processes do not differ in recognition accuracy when confidence is equated. Thus, although there are differences in overall same- and cross-race discrimination accuracy, confidence-specific accuracy (i.e., recognition accuracy at a particular level of confidence) may not differ. We analysed datasets from four recognition memory studies on same- and cross-race faces to test this hypothesis. Confidence ratings reliably predicted recognition accuracy when performance was above chance levels (Experiments 1, 2, and 3) but not when performance was at chance levels (Experiment 4). Furthermore, at each level of confidence, confidence-specific accuracy for same- and cross-race faces did not significantly differ when overall performance was above chance levels (Experiments 1, 2, and 3) but significantly differed when overall performance was at chance levels (Experiment 4). Thus, under certain conditions, high-confidence same-race and cross-race identifications may be equally reliable.

Transparency as an element of public confidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, H.K.

2007-01-01

In the modern society, there is increasing demands for greater transparency. It has been discussed with respect to corruption or ethics issues in social science. The need for greater openness and transparency in nuclear regulation is widely recognised as public expectations on regulator grow. It is also related to the digital and information technology that enables disclosures of every activity and information of individual and organisation, characterised by numerous 'small brothers'. Transparency has become a key word in this ubiquitous era. Transparency in regulatory activities needs to be understood in following contexts. First, transparency is one of elements to build public confidence in regulator and eventually to achieve regulatory goal of providing the public with satisfaction at nuclear safety. Transparent bases of competence, independence, ethics and integrity of working process of regulatory body would enhance public confidence. Second, activities transmitting information on nuclear safety and preparedness to be accessed are different types of transparency. Communication is an active method of transparency. With increasing use of web-sites, 'digital transparency' is also discussed as passive one. Transparency in regulatory process may be more important than that of contents. Simply providing more information is of little value and specific information may need to be protected for security reason. Third, transparency should be discussed in international, national and organizational perspectives. It has been demanded through international instruments. for each country, transparency is demanded by residents, public, NGOs, media and other stakeholders. Employees also demand more transparency in operating and regulatory organisations. Whistle-blower may appear unless they are satisfied. Fourth, pursuing transparency may cause undue social cost or adverse effects. Over-transparency may decrease public confidence and the process for transparency may also hinder

Influence of a School-Based Cooking Course on Students' Food Preferences, Cooking Skills, and Confidence.

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Zahr, Rola; Sibeko, Lindiwe

2017-03-01

A quasi-experimental study was conducted to evaluate the influence of Project CHEF, a hands-on cooking and tasting program offered in Vancouver public schools, on students' food preferences, cooking skills, and confidence. Grade 4 and 5 students in an intervention group (n = 68) and a comparison group (n = 32) completed a survey at baseline and 2 to 3 weeks later. Students who participated in Project CHEF reported an increased familiarity and preference for the foods introduced through the program. This was statistically significant (P ≤ 0.05) for broccoli, swiss chard, carrots, and quinoa. A higher percentage of students exposed to Project CHEF reported a statistically significant increase (P ≤ 0.05) in: cutting vegetables and fruit (97% vs 81%), measuring ingredients (67% vs 44%), using a knife (94% vs 82%), and making a balanced meal on their own (69% vs 34%). They also reported a statistically significant increase (P ≤ 0.05) in confidence making the recipes introduced in the program: fruit salad (85% vs 81%), minestrone soup (25% vs 10%), and vegetable tofu stir fry (39% vs 26%). Involving students in hands-on cooking and tasting programs can increase their preferences for unpopular or unfamiliar foods and provide them with the skills and cooking confidence they need to prepare balanced meals.

Music educators : their artistry and self-confidence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lion-Slovak, Brigitte; Stöger, Christine; Smilde, Rineke; Malmberg, Isolde; de Vugt, Adri

2013-01-01

How does artistic identity influence the self-confidence of music educators? What is the interconnection between the artistic and the teacher identity? What is actually meant by artistic identity in music education? What is a fruitful environment for the development of artistic self-confidence of

Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kramer, Marc M.

2016-01-01

We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.

Confidence building in implementation of geological disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Umeki, Hiroyuki

2004-01-01

Long-term safety of the disposal system should be demonstrated to the satisfaction of the stakeholders. Convincing arguments are therefore required that instil in the stakeholders confidence in the safety of a particular concept for the siting and design of a geological disposal, given the uncertainties that inevitably exist in its a priori description and in its evolution. The step-wise approach associated with making safety case at each stage is a key to building confidence in the repository development programme. This paper discusses aspects and issues on confidence building in the implementation of HLW disposal in Japan. (author)

Teachers' confidence in teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality in South African and Tanzanian schools.

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Helleve, Arnfinn; Flisher, Alan J; Onya, Hans; Kaaya, Sylvia; Mukoma, Wanjiru; Swai, Caroline; Klepp, Knut-Inge

2009-06-01

This study aimed to investigate how confident and comfortable teachers at Tanzanian and South African urban and rural schools are in teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality. It also aimed at identifying factors associated with teacher confidence and investigated how reported confidence was associated with the implementation of educational programmes on HIV/AIDS and sexuality. A survey was conducted among South African grade 8 and 9 Life Orientation teachers, and among science teachers for grade 5 to 7 in public primary schools in Tanzania. Teachers' confidence levels were measured on a four-item scale (0-3). A total number of 266 teachers participated in a survey in 86 schools in South Africa and Tanzania. Overall, teachers report to be rather confident in teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality. Tanzanian teachers reported higher levels of confidence then did their South Africa colleagues (2.1 vs. 1.8; p teaching was significantly associated with the numbers of years teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality, formal training in these subjects, experience in discussing the topics with others, school policy and priority given to teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality at school. Finally, confidence in teaching remained positively associated with self-reported successful implementation of school-based programmes after adjusting for gender, age, religion and numbers of years teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality. Across urban and rural sites in South Africa and Tanzania teachers reported to be fairly confident in teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality. Further strengthening of their confidence levels could, however, be an important measure for improving the implementation of such programmes.

Balance confidence is related to features of balance and gait in individuals with chronic stroke

Science.gov (United States)

Schinkel-Ivy, Alison; Wong, Jennifer S.; Mansfield, Avril

2016-01-01

Reduced balance confidence is associated with impairments in features of balance and gait in individuals with sub-acute stroke. However, an understanding of these relationships in individuals at the chronic stage of stroke recovery is lacking. This study aimed to quantify relationships between balance confidence and specific features of balance and gait in individuals with chronic stroke. Participants completed a balance confidence questionnaire and clinical balance assessment (quiet standing, walking, and reactive stepping) at 6 months post-discharge from inpatient stroke rehabilitation. Regression analyses were performed using balance confidence as a predictor variable and quiet standing, walking, and reactive stepping outcome measures as the dependent variables. Walking velocity was positively correlated with balance confidence, while medio-lateral centre of pressure excursion (quiet standing) and double support time, step width variability, and step time variability (walking) were negatively correlated with balance confidence. This study provides insight into the relationships between balance confidence and balance and gait measures in individuals with chronic stroke, suggesting that individuals with low balance confidence exhibited impaired control of quiet standing as well as walking characteristics associated with cautious gait strategies. Future work should identify the direction of these relationships to inform community-based stroke rehabilitation programs for individuals with chronic stroke, and determine the potential utility of incorporating interventions to improve balance confidence into these programs. PMID:27955809

Post choice information integration as a causal determinant of confidence: Novel data and a computational account.

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Moran, Rani; Teodorescu, Andrei R; Usher, Marius

2015-05-01

Confidence judgments are pivotal in the performance of daily tasks and in many domains of scientific research including the behavioral sciences, psychology and neuroscience. Positive resolution i.e., the positive correlation between choice-correctness and choice-confidence is a critical property of confidence judgments, which justifies their ubiquity. In the current paper, we study the mechanism underlying confidence judgments and their resolution by investigating the source of the inputs for the confidence-calculation. We focus on the intriguing debate between two families of confidence theories. According to single stage theories, confidence is based on the same information that underlies the decision (or on some other aspect of the decision process), whereas according to dual stage theories, confidence is affected by novel information that is collected after the decision was made. In three experiments, we support the case for dual stage theories by showing that post-choice perceptual availability manipulations exert a causal effect on confidence-resolution in the decision followed by confidence paradigm. These finding establish the role of RT2, the duration of the post-choice information-integration stage, as a prime dependent variable that theories of confidence should account for. We then present a novel list of robust empirical patterns ('hurdles') involving RT2 to guide further theorizing about confidence judgments. Finally, we present a unified computational dual stage model for choice, confidence and their latencies namely, the collapsing confidence boundary model (CCB). According to CCB, a diffusion-process choice is followed by a second evidence-integration stage towards a stochastic collapsing confidence boundary. Despite its simplicity, CCB clears the entire list of hurdles. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandra Buratti

2012-09-01

Full Text Available We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying confidence judgments in need of adjustment and then modifying them. The participants managed to increase their metacognitive realism, thus decreasing their absolute bias and improving their calibration, although the effects were small. We also examined the relationship between confidence judgments that were adjusted and the retrieval fluency and the phenomenological memory quality participants experienced when first answering the questions; this quality was one of either Remember (associated with concrete, vivid details or Know (associated with a feeling of familiarity. Confidence judgments associated with low retrieval fluency and the memory quality of knowing were modified more often. In brief, our results provide evidence that people can improve the realism of their confidence judgments, mainly by decreasing their confidence for incorrect answers. Thus, this study supports the conclusion that people can perform successful second-order metacognitive judgments.

Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

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Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

2017-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

Science.gov (United States)

Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

2016-01-01

As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

Induced forgetting and reduced confidence in our personal past? The consequences of selectively retrieving emotional autobiographical memories.

Science.gov (United States)

Stone, Charles B; Luminet, Olivier; Hirst, William

2013-10-01

People build their sense of self, in part, through their memories of their personal past. What is striking about these personal memories is that, in many instances, they are inaccurate, yet confidently held. Most researchers assume that confidence ratings are based, in large part, on the memory's mnemonic features. That is, the more vivid or detailed the memory, the higher the confidence people have in its accuracy. However, we explore a heretofore underappreciated source on which confidence ratings may be based: the accessibility of memories as a result of selective retrieval. To explore this possibility, we use Anderson, Bjork, and Bjork's retrieval-induced forgetting (RIF) paradigm with emotional (positive and negative) autobiographical memories. We found the standard RIF effect for memory recall across emotional valence. That is, selective retrieval of emotional autobiographical memories induced forgetting of related, but not retrieved emotional autobiographical memories compared to the baseline. More interestingly, we found that the confidence ratings for positive memories mirrored the RIF pattern: decreased confidence for related, unpracticed autobiographical memories relative to the baseline. For negative memories, we found the opposite pattern: increased confidence for both practiced autobiographical memories and related, unpracticed autobiographical memories. We discuss these results in terms of accessibility, the diverging mnemonic consequences of selectively retrieving positive and negative autobiographical memories and personal identity. © 2013.

A fuzzy logic algorithm to assign confidence levels to heart and respiratory rate time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, J; McKenna, T M; Gribok, A; Reifman, J; Beidleman, B A; Tharion, W J

2008-01-01

We have developed a fuzzy logic-based algorithm to qualify the reliability of heart rate (HR) and respiratory rate (RR) vital-sign time-series data by assigning a confidence level to the data points while they are measured as a continuous data stream. The algorithm's membership functions are derived from physiology-based performance limits and mass-assignment-based data-driven characteristics of the signals. The assigned confidence levels are based on the reliability of each HR and RR measurement as well as the relationship between them. The algorithm was tested on HR and RR data collected from subjects undertaking a range of physical activities, and it showed acceptable performance in detecting four types of faults that result in low-confidence data points (receiver operating characteristic areas under the curve ranged from 0.67 (SD 0.04) to 0.83 (SD 0.03), mean and standard deviation (SD) over all faults). The algorithm is sensitive to noise in the raw HR and RR data and will flag many data points as low confidence if the data are noisy; prior processing of the data to reduce noise allows identification of only the most substantial faults. Depending on how HR and RR data are processed, the algorithm can be applied as a tool to evaluate sensor performance or to qualify HR and RR time-series data in terms of their reliability before use in automated decision-assist systems

Using Confidence Interval-Based Estimation of Relevance to Select Social-Cognitive Determinants for Behavior Change Interventions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rik Crutzen

2017-07-01

Full Text Available When developing an intervention aimed at behavior change, one of the crucial steps in the development process is to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants. These determinants can be seen as the buttons one needs to push to establish behavior change. Insight into these determinants is needed to select behavior change methods (i.e., general behavior change techniques that are applied in an intervention in the development process. Therefore, a study on determinants is often conducted as formative research in the intervention development process. Ideally, all relevant determinants identified in such a study are addressed by an intervention. However, when developing a behavior change intervention, there are limits in terms of, for example, resources available for intervention development and the amount of content that participants of an intervention can be exposed to. Hence, it is important to select those determinants that are most relevant to the target behavior as these determinants should be addressed in an intervention. The aim of the current paper is to introduce a novel approach to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants and use them in intervention development. This approach is based on visualization of confidence intervals for the means and correlation coefficients for all determinants simultaneously. This visualization facilitates comparison, which is necessary when making selections. By means of a case study on the determinants of using a high dose of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (commonly known as ecstasy, we illustrate this approach. We provide a freely available tool to facilitate the analyses needed in this approach.

Using Confidence Interval-Based Estimation of Relevance to Select Social-Cognitive Determinants for Behavior Change Interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Crutzen, Rik; Peters, Gjalt-Jorn Ygram; Noijen, Judith

2017-01-01

When developing an intervention aimed at behavior change, one of the crucial steps in the development process is to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants. These determinants can be seen as the buttons one needs to push to establish behavior change. Insight into these determinants is needed to select behavior change methods (i.e., general behavior change techniques that are applied in an intervention) in the development process. Therefore, a study on determinants is often conducted as formative research in the intervention development process. Ideally, all relevant determinants identified in such a study are addressed by an intervention. However, when developing a behavior change intervention, there are limits in terms of, for example, resources available for intervention development and the amount of content that participants of an intervention can be exposed to. Hence, it is important to select those determinants that are most relevant to the target behavior as these determinants should be addressed in an intervention. The aim of the current paper is to introduce a novel approach to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants and use them in intervention development. This approach is based on visualization of confidence intervals for the means and correlation coefficients for all determinants simultaneously. This visualization facilitates comparison, which is necessary when making selections. By means of a case study on the determinants of using a high dose of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (commonly known as ecstasy), we illustrate this approach. We provide a freely available tool to facilitate the analyses needed in this approach.

Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

OpenAIRE

Kamini Solanki; Yudhvir Seetharam

2014-01-01

While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Ind...

Confidence Interval Approximation For Treatment Variance In ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In a random effects model with a single factor, variation is partitioned into two as residual error variance and treatment variance. While a confidence interval can be imposed on the residual error variance, it is not possible to construct an exact confidence interval for the treatment variance. This is because the treatment ...

Self-confidence of anglers in identification of freshwater sport fish

Science.gov (United States)

Chizinski, C.J.; Martin, D. R.; Pope, Kevin L.

2014-01-01

Although several studies have focused on how well anglers identify species using replicas and pictures, there has been no study assessing the confidence that can be placed in angler's ability to identify recreationally important fish. Understanding factors associated with low self-confidence will be useful in tailoring education programmes to improve self-confidence in identifying common species. The purposes of this assessment were to quantify the confidence of recreational anglers to identify 13 commonly encountered warm water fish species and to relate self-confidence to species availability and angler experience. Significant variation was observed in anglers self-confidence among species and levels of self-declared skill, with greater confidence associated with greater skill and with greater exposure. This study of angler self-confidence strongly highlights the need for educational programmes that target lower skilled anglers and the importance of teaching all anglers about less common species, regardless of skill level.

Effects of postidentification feedback on eyewitness identification and nonidentification confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Semmler, Carolyn; Brewer, Neil; Wells, Gary L

2004-04-01

Two experiments investigated new dimensions of the effect of confirming feedback on eyewitness identification confidence using target-absent and target-present lineups and (previously unused) unbiased witness instructions (i.e., "offender not present" option highlighted). In Experiment 1, participants viewed a crime video and were later asked to try to identify the thief from an 8-person target-absent photo array. Feedback inflated witness confidence for both mistaken identifications and correct lineup rejections. With target-present lineups in Experiment 2, feedback inflated confidence for correct and mistaken identifications and lineup rejections. Although feedback had no influence on the confidence-accuracy correlation, it produced clear overconfidence. Confidence inflation varied with the confidence measure reference point (i.e., retrospective vs. current confidence) and identification response latency.

Political Ideology, Confidence in Science, and Participation in Alzheimer Disease Research Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabel, Matthew; Gooblar, Jonathan; Roe, Catherine M; Selsor, Natalie J; Morris, John C

2018-01-18

Americans' confidence in science varies based on their political ideology. This ideological divide has potentially important effects on citizens' engagement with and participation in clinical studies of Alzheimer disease (AD). A probability sample of 1583 Americans was surveyed about their willingness to participate in longitudinal AD research and about their political attitudes. These survey results were compared with a survey of 382 participants in a longitudinal AD study at the Knight Alzheimer Disease Research Center. Among Americans, more conservative ideology decreases willingness to participate in a hypothetical longitudinal cohort study of AD both directly and through its negative effect on confidence in science. The Knight Alzheimer Disease Research Center study participants expressed more liberal ideology and greater confidence in science than Americans in general. Of the survey respondents opposed to participation, over a quarter changed to neutral or positive if the study returned their research results to them. Clinical studies of AD are likely biased toward participants who are more liberal and have higher confidence in science than the general population. This recruitment bias may be reduced by lowering the trust demanded of participants through measures such as returning research results to participants.

On the need and use of models to explore the role of economic confidence:a survey.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sprigg, James A.; Paez, Paul J. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Hand, Michael S. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM)

2005-04-01

Empirical studies suggest that consumption is more sensitive to current income than suggested under the permanent income hypothesis, which raises questions regarding expectations for future income, risk aversion, and the role of economic confidence measures. This report surveys a body of fundamental economic literature as well as burgeoning computational modeling methods to support efforts to better anticipate cascading economic responses to terrorist threats and attacks. This is a three part survey to support the incorporation of models of economic confidence into agent-based microeconomic simulations. We first review broad underlying economic principles related to this topic. We then review the economic principle of confidence and related empirical studies. Finally, we provide a brief survey of efforts and publications related to agent-based economic simulation.

Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

2015-10-01

Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality.

Registered nurse leadership style and confidence in delegation.

Science.gov (United States)

Saccomano, Scott J; Pinto-Zipp, Genevieve

2011-05-01

  Leadership and confidence in delegation are two important explanatory constructs of nursing practice. The relationship between these constructs, however, is not clearly understood. To be successful in their roles as leaders, regardless of their experience, registered nurses (RNs) need to understand how to best delegate. The present study explored and described the relationship between RN leadership styles, demographic variables and confidence in delegation in a community teaching hospital. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey design, RNs employed in one acute care hospital completed questionnaires that measured leadership style [Path-Goal Leadership Questionnaire (PGLQ)] and confidence in delegating patient care tasks [Confidence and Intent to Delegate Scale (CIDS)]. Contrary to expectations, the data did not confirm a relationship between confidence in delegating tasks to unlicensed assistive personnel (UAPs) and leadership style. Nurses who were diploma or associate degree prepared were initially less confident in delegating tasks to UAPs as compared with RNs holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Further, after 5 years of clinical nursing experience, nurses with less educational experience reported more confidence in delegating tasks as compared with RNs with more educational experience. The lack of a relationship between leadership style and confidence in delegating patient care tasks were discussed in terms of the PGLQ classification criteria and hospital unit differences. As suggested by the significant two-way interaction between educational preparation and clinical nursing experience, changes in the nurse's confidence in delegating patient care tasks to UAPs was a dynamic changing variable that resulted from the interplay between amount of educational preparation and years of clinical nursing experience in this population of nurses. Clearly, generalizability of these findings to nurses outside the US is questionable, thus nurse managers must be familiar

Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Jaeger

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.

Confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Estes, Zachary; Felker, Sydney

2012-06-01

On tasks that require the mental rotation of 3-dimensional figures, males typically exhibit higher accuracy than females. Using the most common measure of mental rotation (i.e., the Mental Rotations Test), we investigated whether individual variability in confidence mediates this sex difference in mental rotation performance. In each of four experiments, the sex difference was reliably elicited and eliminated by controlling or manipulating participants' confidence. Specifically, confidence predicted performance within and between sexes (Experiment 1), rendering confidence irrelevant to the task reliably eliminated the sex difference in performance (Experiments 2 and 3), and manipulating confidence significantly affected performance (Experiment 4). Thus, confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance and hence the sex difference appears to be a difference of performance rather than ability. Results are discussed in relation to other potential mediators and mechanisms, such as gender roles, sex stereotypes, spatial experience, rotation strategies, working memory, and spatial attention.

Aging and Confidence Judgments in Item Recognition

Science.gov (United States)

Voskuilen, Chelsea; Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

2018-01-01

We examined the effects of aging on performance in an item-recognition experiment with confidence judgments. A model for confidence judgments and response time (RTs; Ratcliff & Starns, 2013) was used to fit a large amount of data from a new sample of older adults and a previously reported sample of younger adults. This model of confidence…

Confidence ellipses: A variation based on parametric bootstrapping applicable on Multiple Factor Analysis results for rapid graphical evaluation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dehlholm, Christian; Brockhoff, Per B.; Bredie, Wender L. P.

2012-01-01

A new way of parametric bootstrapping allows similar construction of confidence ellipses applicable on all results from Multiple Factor Analysis obtained from the FactoMineR package in the statistical program R. With this procedure, a similar approach will be applied to Multiple Factor Analysis r...... in different studies performed on the same set of products. In addition, the graphical display of confidence ellipses eases interpretation and communication of results....

Maximum-confidence discrimination among symmetric qudit states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jimenez, O.; Solis-Prosser, M. A.; Delgado, A.; Neves, L.

2011-01-01

We study the maximum-confidence (MC) measurement strategy for discriminating among nonorthogonal symmetric qudit states. Restricting to linearly dependent and equally likely pure states, we find the optimal positive operator valued measure (POVM) that maximizes our confidence in identifying each state in the set and minimizes the probability of obtaining inconclusive results. The physical realization of this POVM is completely determined and it is shown that after an inconclusive outcome, the input states may be mapped into a new set of equiprobable symmetric states, restricted, however, to a subspace of the original qudit Hilbert space. By applying the MC measurement again onto this new set, we can still gain some information about the input states, although with less confidence than before. This leads us to introduce the concept of sequential maximum-confidence (SMC) measurements, where the optimized MC strategy is iterated in as many stages as allowed by the input set, until no further information can be extracted from an inconclusive result. Within each stage of this measurement our confidence in identifying the input states is the highest possible, although it decreases from one stage to the next. In addition, the more stages we accomplish within the maximum allowed, the higher will be the probability of correct identification. We will discuss an explicit example of the optimal SMC measurement applied in the discrimination among four symmetric qutrit states and propose an optical network to implement it.

Are You Sure? Confidence about the Satiating Capacity of a Food Affects Subsequent Food Intake.

Science.gov (United States)

Schiöth, Helgi B; Ferriday, Danielle; Davies, Sarah R; Benedict, Christian; Elmståhl, Helena; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M; Hogenkamp, Pleunie S

2015-06-24

Expectations about a food's satiating capacity predict self-selected portion size, food intake and food choice. However, two individuals might have a similar expectation, but one might be extremely confident while the other might be guessing. It is unclear whether confidence about an expectation affects adjustments in energy intake at a subsequent meal. In a randomized cross-over design, 24 subjects participated in three separate breakfast sessions, and were served a low-energy-dense preload (53 kcal/100 g), a high-energy-dense preload (94 kcal/100 g), or no preload. Subjects received ambiguous information about the preload's satiating capacity and rated how confident they were about their expected satiation before consuming the preload in its entirety. They were served an ad libitum test meal 30 min later. Confidence ratings were negatively associated with energy compensation after consuming the high-energy-dense preload (r = -0.61; p = 0.001). The same relationship was evident after consuming the low-energy-dense preload, but only after controlling for dietary restraint, hunger prior to, and liking of the test meal (p = 0.03). Our results suggest that confidence modifies short-term controls of food intake by affecting energy compensation. These results merit consideration because imprecise caloric compensation has been identified as a potential risk factor for a positive energy balance and weight gain.

Are You Sure? Confidence about the Satiating Capacity of a Food Affects Subsequent Food Intake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helgi B. Schiöth

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Expectations about a food’s satiating capacity predict self-selected portion size, food intake and food choice. However, two individuals might have a similar expectation, but one might be extremely confident while the other might be guessing. It is unclear whether confidence about an expectation affects adjustments in energy intake at a subsequent meal. In a randomized cross-over design, 24 subjects participated in three separate breakfast sessions, and were served a low-energy-dense preload (53 kcal/100 g, a high-energy-dense preload (94 kcal/100 g, or no preload. Subjects received ambiguous information about the preload’s satiating capacity and rated how confident they were about their expected satiation before consuming the preload in its entirety. They were served an ad libitum test meal 30 min later. Confidence ratings were negatively associated with energy compensation after consuming the high-energy-dense preload (r = −0.61; p = 0.001. The same relationship was evident after consuming the low-energy-dense preload, but only after controlling for dietary restraint, hunger prior to, and liking of the test meal (p = 0.03. Our results suggest that confidence modifies short-term controls of food intake by affecting energy compensation. These results merit consideration because imprecise caloric compensation has been identified as a potential risk factor for a positive energy balance and weight gain.

Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

2008-04-02

A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

Functional Dissociation of Confident and Not-Confident Errors in the Spatial Delayed Response Task Demonstrates Impairments in Working Memory Encoding and Maintenance in Schizophrenia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jutta S. Mayer

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Even though extensively investigated, the nature of working memory (WM deficits in patients with schizophrenia (PSZ is not yet fully understood. In particular, the contribution of different WM sub-processes to the severe WM deficit observed in PSZ is a matter of debate. So far, most research has focused on impaired WM maintenance. By analyzing different types of errors in a spatial delayed response task (DRT, we have recently demonstrated that incorrect yet confident responses (which we labeled as false memory errors rather than incorrect/not-confident responses reflect failures of WM encoding, which was also impaired in PSZ. In the present study, we provide further evidence for a functional dissociation between confident and not-confident errors by manipulating the demands on WM maintenance, i.e., the length over which information has to be maintained in WM. Furthermore, we investigate whether these functionally distinguishable WM processes are impaired in PSZ. Twenty-four PSZ and 24 demographically matched healthy controls (HC performed a spatial DRT in which the length of the delay period was varied between 1, 2, 4, and 6 s. In each trial, participants also rated their level of response confidence. Across both groups, longer delays led to increased rates of incorrect/not-confident responses, while incorrect/confident responses were not affected by delay length. This functional dissociation provides additional support for our proposal that false memory errors (i.e., confident errors reflect problems at the level of WM encoding, while not-confident errors reflect failures of WM maintenance. Schizophrenic patients showed increased numbers of both confident and not-confident errors, suggesting that both sub-processes of WM—encoding and maintenance—are impaired in schizophrenia. Combined with the delay length-dependent functional dissociation, we propose that these impairments in schizophrenic patients are functionally distinguishable.

Effects of confidence and anxiety on flow state in competition.

Science.gov (United States)

Koehn, Stefan

2013-01-01

Confidence and anxiety are important variables that underlie the experience of flow in sport. Specifically, research has indicated that confidence displays a positive relationship and anxiety a negative relationship with flow. The aim of this study was to assess potential direct and indirect effects of confidence and anxiety dimensions on flow state in tennis competition. A sample of 59 junior tennis players completed measures of Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2d and Flow State Scale-2. Following predictive analysis, results showed significant positive correlations between confidence (intensity and direction) and anxiety symptoms (only directional perceptions) with flow state. Standard multiple regression analysis indicated confidence as the only significant predictor of flow. The results confirmed a protective function of confidence against debilitating anxiety interpretations, but there were no significant interaction effects between confidence and anxiety on flow state.

Dead certain: confidence and conservatism predict aggression in simulated international crisis decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Dominic D P; McDermott, Rose; Cowden, Jon; Tingley, Dustin

2012-03-01

Evolutionary psychologists have suggested that confidence and conservatism promoted aggression in our ancestral past, and that this may have been an adaptive strategy given the prevailing costs and benefits of conflict. However, in modern environments, where the costs and benefits of conflict can be very different owing to the involvement of mass armies, sophisticated technology, and remote leadership, evolved tendencies toward high levels of confidence and conservatism may continue to be a contributory cause of aggression despite leading to greater costs and fewer benefits. The purpose of this paper is to test whether confidence and conservatism are indeed associated with greater levels of aggression-in an explicitly political domain. We present the results of an experiment examining people's levels of aggression in response to hypothetical international crises (a hostage crisis, a counter-insurgency campaign, and a coup). Levels of aggression (which range from concession to negotiation to military attack) were significantly predicted by subjects' (1) confidence that their chosen policy would succeed, (2) score on a liberal-conservative scale, (3) political party affiliation, and (4) preference for the use of military force in real-world U.S. policy toward Iraq and Iran. We discuss the possible adaptive and maladaptive implications of confidence and conservatism for the prospects of war and peace in the modern world.

Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emanuel Santos

Full Text Available Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system.

Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Emanuel; Faria, Daniel; Pesquita, Catia; Couto, Francisco M

2015-01-01

Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system.

Preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching school violence prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Kandakai, Tina L; King, Keith A

2002-01-01

To examine preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention and the potential effect of violence-prevention training on preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. Six Ohio universities participated in the study. More than 800 undergraduate and graduate students completed surveys. Violence-prevention training, area of certification, and location of student- teaching placement significantly influenced preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention. Violence-prevention training positively influences preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. The results suggest that such training should be considered as a requirement for teacher preparation programs.

Building technical and social confidence in the safety of geological disposal in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tochiyama, Osamu; Masuda, Sumio

2013-01-01

Geological disposal has been adopted as the most feasible option for the method of long-term management of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) in every country in the world, regardless of the pros and cons of the nuclear power generation. Building stakeholders’ confidence in safety of geological disposal is indispensable to reach the point where the implementation of geological disposal is accepted by the current generation. The safety case is a key input to build confidence in geological disposal stepwise as the program progresses and regarded to play an important role as a common platform in the communication among stakeholders. The aim of this paper is to review arguments relevant to building technical and social confidence in the progress of Japanese research and development activities as well as international discussions. (author)

How “consistent” is “consistent”? A clinician-based assessment of the reliability of expressions used by radiologists to communicate diagnostic confidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosenkrantz, A.B.; Kiritsy, M.; Kim, S.

2014-01-01

Aim: To evaluate the degree of variability in clinicians' interpretation of expressions used by radiologists to communicate their level of diagnostic confidence within radiological reports. Materials and methods: Clinicians were solicited to complete a prospective survey asking them to select the approximate perceived level of certainty, expressed as a percentage, associated with 20 expressions used by radiologists to communicate their level of diagnostic confidence within radiological reports. The median and inter-decile range (IDR) were computed for each expression, with a smaller IDR indicating greater reproducibility. Clinicians were also asked questions regarding their attitudes about radiologists' communication of diagnostic confidence. Results: Forty-nine surveys were completed. Median confidence associated with the expressions ranged from 10–90%. Reproducibility of the expressions was variable, as IDR ranged from 15–53%, although a median IDR of 40% indicated overall poor reproducibility. Expressions with relatively higher reproducibility included “most likely”, “likely”, and “unlikely” (IDR 15–20%), whereas expressions with relatively lower reproducibility included “compatible with”, “suspicious for”, “possibly,” and “can be seen in the setting of” (IDR ≥45%). Only 20% of clinicians agreed or strongly agreed that radiologists consistently use such expressions within their reports. Fifty-five percent of clinicians preferred that diagnostic confidence be communicated as a percentage rather than as a textual expression. Conclusion: There was poor reproducibility in clinicians' interpretations of many expressions used by radiologists to communicate their level of diagnostic confidence. Use of percentages to convey diagnostic confidence within reports may mitigate this source of ambiguity in radiologists' communication with clinicians. - Highlights: • Clinicians recorded certainty associated with

Alternative confidence measure for local matching stereo algorithms

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Ndhlovu, T

2009-11-01

Full Text Available The authors present a confidence measure applied to individual disparity estimates in local matching stereo correspondence algorithms. It aims at identifying textureless areas, where most local matching algorithms fail. The confidence measure works...

People’s confidence in innovation: A component of the entrepreneurial mindset, embedded in gender and culture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ashourizadeh, Shayegheh; Hassannezhad Chavousi, Zohreh; Schøtt, Thomas

2014-01-01

People may have confidence in innovation, prone to try, buy and use new services and products. Expectedly, confidence in innovation is a component in the entrepreneurial mindset that promotes intention to become entrepreneur and is embedded in the micro-level context of gender and in the macro......-level context of culture. – People’s confidence in innovation is examined for a representative sample of 384,444 adults in 71 societies surveyed in the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor. – Linear modelling shows that people’s confidence in innovation is a component in the entrepreneurial mindset by being...... in innovation promotes entrepreneurial intention, as expected and the benefit is especially high for men and in traditional culture, as hypothesised....

Coping skills: role of trait sport confidence and trait anxiety.

Science.gov (United States)

Cresswell, Scott; Hodge, Ken

2004-04-01

The current research assesses relationships among coping skills, trait sport confidence, and trait anxiety. Two samples (n=47 and n=77) of international competitors from surf life saving (M=23.7 yr.) and touch rugby (M=26.2 yr.) completed the Athletic Coping Skills Inventory, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Sport Anxiety Scale. Analysis yielded significant correlations amongst trait anxiety, sport confidence, and coping. Specifically confidence scores were positively associated with coping with adversity scores and anxiety scores were negatively associated. These findings support the inclusion of the personality characteristics of confidence and anxiety within the coping model presented by Hardy, Jones, and Gould, Researchers should be aware that confidence and anxiety may influence the coping processes of athletes.

Identifying the bad guy in a lineup using confidence judgments under deadline pressure.

Science.gov (United States)

Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Wootton, David; Lindsay, D Stephen

2012-10-01

Eyewitness-identification tests often culminate in witnesses not picking the culprit or identifying innocent suspects. We tested a radical alternative to the traditional lineup procedure used in such tests. Rather than making a positive identification, witnesses made confidence judgments under a short deadline about whether each lineup member was the culprit. We compared this deadline procedure with the traditional sequential-lineup procedure in three experiments with retention intervals ranging from 5 min to 1 week. A classification algorithm that identified confidence criteria that optimally discriminated accurate from inaccurate decisions revealed that decision accuracy was 24% to 66% higher under the deadline procedure than under the traditional procedure. Confidence profiles across lineup stimuli were more informative than were identification decisions about the likelihood that an individual witness recognized the culprit or correctly recognized that the culprit was not present. Large differences between the maximum and the next-highest confidence value signaled very high accuracy. Future support for this procedure across varied conditions would highlight a viable alternative to the problematic lineup procedures that have traditionally been used by law enforcement.

Systematic review of knowledge, confidence and education in nutritional genomics for students and professionals in nutrition and dietetics.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, O R L

2014-06-01

This review examines knowledge and confidence of nutrition and dietetics professionals in nutritional genomics and evaluates the teaching strategies in this field within nutrition and dietetics university programmes and professional development courses internationally. A systematic search of 10 literature databases was conducted from January 2000 to December 2012 to identify original research. Any studies of either nutrition and/or dietetics students or dietitians/nutritionists investigating current levels of knowledge or confidence in nutritional genomics, or strategies to improve learning and/or confidence in this area, were eligible. Eighteen articles (15 separate studies) met the inclusion criteria. Three articles were assessed as negative, eight as neutral and seven as positive according to the American Dietetics Association Quality Criteria Checklist. The overall ranking of evidence was low. Dietitians have low involvement, knowledge and confidence in nutritional genomics, and evidence for educational strategies is limited and methodologically weak. There is a need to develop training pathways and material to up-skill nutrition and/or dietetics students and nutrition and/or dietetics professionals in nutritional genomics through multidisciplinary collaboration with content area experts. There is a paucity of high quality evidence on optimum teaching strategies; however, methods promoting repetitive exposure to nutritional genomics material, problem-solving, collaborative and case-based learning are most promising for university and professional development programmes. © 2013 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Factors affecting midwives' confidence in intrapartum care: a phenomenological study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bedwell, Carol; McGowan, Linda; Lavender, Tina

2015-01-01

midwives are frequently the lead providers of care for women throughout labour and birth. In order to perform their role effectively and provide women with the choices they require midwives need to be confident in their practice. This study explores factors which may affect midwives' confidence in their practice. hermeneutic phenomenology formed the theoretical basis for the study. Prospective longitudinal data collection was completed using diaries and semi-structured interviews. Twelve midwives providing intrapartum care in a variety of settings were recruited to ensure a variety of experiences in different contexts were captured. the principal factor affecting workplace confidence, both positively and negatively, was the influence of colleagues. Perceived autonomy and a sense of familiarity could also enhance confidence. However, conflict in the workplace was a critical factor in reducing midwives' confidence. Confidence was an important, but fragile, phenomenon to midwives and they used a variety of coping strategies, emotional intelligence and presentation management to maintain it. this is the first study to highlight both the factors influencing midwives' workplace confidence and the strategies midwives employed to maintain their confidence. Confidence is important in maintaining well-being and workplace culture may play a role in explaining the current low morale within the midwifery workforce. This may have implications for women's choices and care. Support, effective leadership and education may help midwives develop and sustain a positive sense of confidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

nigerian students' self-confidence in responding to statements

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Temechegn

Altogether the test is made up of 40 items covering students' ability to recall definition ... confidence interval within which student have confidence in their choice of the .... is mentioned these equilibrium systems come to memory of the learner.

Conquering Credibility for Monetary Policy Under Sticky Confidence

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Jaylson Jair da Silveira

2015-06-01

Full Text Available We derive a best-reply monetary policy when the confidence by price setters on the monetary authority’s commitment to price level targeting may be both incomplete and sticky. We find that complete confidence (or full credibility is not a necessary condition for the achievement of a price level target even when heterogeneity in firms’ price level expectations is endogenously time-varying and may emerge as a long-run equilibrium outcome. In fact, in the absence of exogenous perturbations to the dynamic of confidence building, it is the achievement of a price level target for long enough that, due to stickiness in the state of confidence, rather ensures the conquering of full credibility. This result has relevant implications for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of price stability. One implication is that setting a price level target matters more as a means to provide monetary policy with a sharper focus on price stability than as a device to conquer credibility. As regards the conquering of credibility for monetary policy, it turns out that actions speak louder than words, as the continuing achievement of price stability is what ultimately performs better as a confidence-building device.

Evidence-Based Practice Knowledge, Attitude, Access and Confidence: A comparison of dental hygiene and dental students.

Science.gov (United States)

Santiago, Victoria; Cardenas, Melissa; Charles, Anne Laure; Hernandez, Estefany; Oyoyo, Udochukwu; Kwon, So Ran

2018-04-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether current educational strategies at a dental institution in the United States made a difference in dental hygiene (DNHY) and dental students' (D3) learning outcomes in the four domains of evidence-based practice (EBP), knowledge, attitude, accessing evidence, and confidence (KACE), following a 12-week research design course. Methods: All participants DNHY (n=19) and D3 (n=96) enrolled in the research design course at Loma Linda University completed a paper KACE survey distributed on the first day of class. Students completed the KACE survey once more at the end of the 12-week course. Pre- and post-survey results were compared both within and between the DNHY and D3 student groups to identify the learning outcomes in the four domains of EBP; knowledge, attitude, accessing evidence, and confidence in EBP. Descriptive statistics were conducted to profile all variables in the study; the level of significance was set at α=0.05. Results: All DNHY students (n=19) completed the pre and post KACE surveys; of the D3 (n=96) students enrolled in the course 82% (n=79) competed the post-survey. Comparison of the survey results showed that both DNHY and D3 students demonstrated statistically significant increases in their level of knowledge and attitude (p 0.05). Conclusion: DNHY and D3 students increased their knowledge and developed more positive attitudes towards EBP following a 12-week research design course. Study results identify improvement areas for EBP knowledge acquisition including determining levels of evidence, analysis of study results, and evaluating the appropriateness of research study designs through the use of validated EBP survey instrument. Copyright © 2018 The American Dental Hygienists’ Association.

The antecedents and belief-polarized effects of thought confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Chou, Hsuan-Yi; Lien, Nai-Hwa; Liang, Kuan-Yu

2011-01-01

This article investigates 2 possible antecedents of thought confidence and explores the effects of confidence induced before or during ad exposure. The results of the experiments indicate that both consumers' dispositional optimism and spokesperson attractiveness have significant effects on consumers' confidence in thoughts that are generated after viewing the advertisement. Higher levels of thought confidence will influence the quality of the thoughts that people generate, lead to either positively or negatively polarized message processing, and therefore induce better or worse advertising effectiveness, depending on the valence of thoughts. The authors posit the belief-polarization hypothesis to explain these findings.

Improvement of Roller Bearing Diagnosis with Unlabeled Data Using Cut Edge Weight Confidence Based Tritraining

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Wei-Li Qin

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Roller bearings are one of the most commonly used components in rotational machines. The fault diagnosis of roller bearings thus plays an important role in ensuring the safe functioning of the mechanical systems. However, in most cases of bearing fault diagnosis, there are limited number of labeled data to achieve a proper fault diagnosis. Therefore, exploiting unlabeled data plus few labeled data, this paper proposed a roller bearing fault diagnosis method based on tritraining to improve roller bearing diagnosis performance. To overcome the noise brought by wrong labeling into the classifiers training process, the cut edge weight confidence is introduced into the diagnosis framework. Besides a small trick called suspect principle is adopted to avoid overfitting problem. The proposed method is validated in two independent roller bearing fault experiment vibrational signals that both include three types of faults: inner-ring fault, outer-ring fault, and rolling element fault. The results demonstrate the desirable diagnostic performance improvement by the proposed method in the extreme situation where there is only limited number of labeled data.

Authorization of Animal Experiments Is Based on Confidence Rather than Evidence of Scientific Rigor

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Nathues, Christina; Würbel, Hanno

2016-01-01

Accumulating evidence indicates high risk of bias in preclinical animal research, questioning the scientific validity and reproducibility of published research findings. Systematic reviews found low rates of reporting of measures against risks of bias in the published literature (e.g., randomization, blinding, sample size calculation) and a correlation between low reporting rates and inflated treatment effects. That most animal research undergoes peer review or ethical review would offer the possibility to detect risks of bias at an earlier stage, before the research has been conducted. For example, in Switzerland, animal experiments are licensed based on a detailed description of the study protocol and a harm–benefit analysis. We therefore screened applications for animal experiments submitted to Swiss authorities (n = 1,277) for the rates at which the use of seven basic measures against bias (allocation concealment, blinding, randomization, sample size calculation, inclusion/exclusion criteria, primary outcome variable, and statistical analysis plan) were described and compared them with the reporting rates of the same measures in a representative sub-sample of publications (n = 50) resulting from studies described in these applications. Measures against bias were described at very low rates, ranging on average from 2.4% for statistical analysis plan to 19% for primary outcome variable in applications for animal experiments, and from 0.0% for sample size calculation to 34% for statistical analysis plan in publications from these experiments. Calculating an internal validity score (IVS) based on the proportion of the seven measures against bias, we found a weak positive correlation between the IVS of applications and that of publications (Spearman’s rho = 0.34, p = 0.014), indicating that the rates of description of these measures in applications partly predict their rates of reporting in publications. These results indicate that the authorities licensing

Male partner selectivity, romantic confidence, and media depictions of partner scarcity.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Laramie D

2013-01-18

An experiment was conducted to explore the effects of exposure to partner scarcity or abundance messages on men's partner selectivity, romantic confidence, and self-assessed attractiveness. Undergraduate male participants watched a soap opera narrative featuring either two men competing over one potential female partner (partner scarcity) or two women competing over one potential male partner (partner abundance). Relative to control subjects, watching either narrative reduced romantic confidence. Experimental condition also affected partner selectivity and self-assessed attractiveness, though both effects were moderated by endorsement of traditional masculine ideology. Viewing the abundance narrative resulted in greater selectivity and self-assessed attractiveness for men high in endorsement of traditional masculinity but diminished selectivity and self-assessed attractiveness for men low in endorsement of traditional masculine identity.

Male Partner Selectivity, Romantic Confidence, and Media Depictions of Partner Scarcity

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Laramie D. Taylor

2013-01-01

Full Text Available An experiment was conducted to explore the effects of exposure to partner scarcity or abundance messages on men's partner selectivity, romantic confidence, and self-assessed attractiveness. Undergraduate male participants watched a soap opera narrative featuring either two men competing over one potential female partner (partner scarcity or two women competing over one potential male partner (partner abundance. Relative to control subjects, watching either narrative reduced romantic confidence. Experimental condition also affected partner selectivity and self-assessed attractiveness, though both effects were moderated by endorsement of traditional masculine ideology. Viewing the abundance narrative resulted in greater selectivity and self-assessed attractiveness for men high in endorsement of traditional masculinity but diminished selectivity and self-assessed attractiveness for men low in endorsement of traditional masculine identity.

Confidence in Numerical Simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2015-02-23

This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

The Perceived Importance of Youth Educator's Confidence in Delivering Leadership Development Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Brumbaugh, Laura; Cater, Melissa

2016-01-01

A successful component of programs designed to deliver youth leadership develop programs are youth educators who understand the importance of utilizing research-based information and seeking professional development opportunities. The purpose of this study was to determine youth educator's perceived confidence in leading youth leadership…

PFP: Automated prediction of gene ontology functional annotations with confidence scores using protein sequence data.

Science.gov (United States)

Hawkins, Troy; Chitale, Meghana; Luban, Stanislav; Kihara, Daisuke

2009-02-15

Protein function prediction is a central problem in bioinformatics, increasing in importance recently due to the rapid accumulation of biological data awaiting interpretation. Sequence data represents the bulk of this new stock and is the obvious target for consideration as input, as newly sequenced organisms often lack any other type of biological characterization. We have previously introduced PFP (Protein Function Prediction) as our sequence-based predictor of Gene Ontology (GO) functional terms. PFP interprets the results of a PSI-BLAST search by extracting and scoring individual functional attributes, searching a wide range of E-value sequence matches, and utilizing conventional data mining techniques to fill in missing information. We have shown it to be effective in predicting both specific and low-resolution functional attributes when sufficient data is unavailable. Here we describe (1) significant improvements to the PFP infrastructure, including the addition of prediction significance and confidence scores, (2) a thorough benchmark of performance and comparisons to other related prediction methods, and (3) applications of PFP predictions to genome-scale data. We applied PFP predictions to uncharacterized protein sequences from 15 organisms. Among these sequences, 60-90% could be annotated with a GO molecular function term at high confidence (>or=80%). We also applied our predictions to the protein-protein interaction network of the Malaria plasmodium (Plasmodium falciparum). High confidence GO biological process predictions (>or=90%) from PFP increased the number of fully enriched interactions in this dataset from 23% of interactions to 94%. Our benchmark comparison shows significant performance improvement of PFP relative to GOtcha, InterProScan, and PSI-BLAST predictions. This is consistent with the performance of PFP as the overall best predictor in both the AFP-SIG '05 and CASP7 function (FN) assessments. PFP is available as a web service at http

The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

2009-01-01

Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new

Weighted profile likelihood-based confidence interval for the difference between two proportions with paired binomial data.

Science.gov (United States)

Pradhan, Vivek; Saha, Krishna K; Banerjee, Tathagata; Evans, John C

2014-07-30

Inference on the difference between two binomial proportions in the paired binomial setting is often an important problem in many biomedical investigations. Tang et al. (2010, Statistics in Medicine) discussed six methods to construct confidence intervals (henceforth, we abbreviate it as CI) for the difference between two proportions in paired binomial setting using method of variance estimates recovery. In this article, we propose weighted profile likelihood-based CIs for the difference between proportions of a paired binomial distribution. However, instead of the usual likelihood, we use weighted likelihood that is essentially making adjustments to the cell frequencies of a 2 × 2 table in the spirit of Agresti and Min (2005, Statistics in Medicine). We then conduct numerical studies to compare the performances of the proposed CIs with that of Tang et al. and Agresti and Min in terms of coverage probabilities and expected lengths. Our numerical study clearly indicates that the weighted profile likelihood-based intervals and Jeffreys interval (cf. Tang et al.) are superior in terms of achieving the nominal level, and in terms of expected lengths, they are competitive. Finally, we illustrate the use of the proposed CIs with real-life examples. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Balance confidence and falls in nondemented essential tremor patients: the role of cognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Rao, Ashwini K; Gilman, Arthur; Louis, Elan D

2014-10-01

To examine (1) the effect of cognitive ability on balance confidence and falls, (2) the relationship of balance confidence and falls with quantitative measures of gait, and (3) measures that predict falls, in people with essential tremor (ET). Cross-sectional study. General community. People with ET (n=132) and control subjects (n=48). People with ET were divided into 2 groups based on the median score on the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination: those with lower cognitive test scores (ET-LCS) and those with higher cognitive test scores (ET-HCS). Not applicable. Six-item Activities of Balance Confidence (ABC-6) Scale and falls in the previous year. Participants with ET-LCS had lower ABC-6 scores and a greater number of falls than those with ET-HCS (Pcontrol subjects (Pfalls. Gait speed (Pfalls. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that gait speed balance confidence and a higher number of falls than their counterparts (ET-HCS) and than control subjects. We have identified assessments that are easily administered (gait speed, ABC-6 Scale) and are associated with falls in ET. Copyright © 2014 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

LipiDex: An Integrated Software Package for High-Confidence Lipid Identification.

Science.gov (United States)

Hutchins, Paul D; Russell, Jason D; Coon, Joshua J

2018-04-17

State-of-the-art proteomics software routinely quantifies thousands of peptides per experiment with minimal need for manual validation or processing of data. For the emerging field of discovery lipidomics via liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), comparably mature informatics tools do not exist. Here, we introduce LipiDex, a freely available software suite that unifies and automates all stages of lipid identification, reducing hands-on processing time from hours to minutes for even the most expansive datasets. LipiDex utilizes flexible in silico fragmentation templates and lipid-optimized MS/MS spectral matching routines to confidently identify and track hundreds of lipid species and unknown compounds from diverse sample matrices. Unique spectral and chromatographic peak purity algorithms accurately quantify co-isolation and co-elution of isobaric lipids, generating identifications that match the structural resolution afforded by the LC-MS/MS experiment. During final data filtering, ionization artifacts are removed to significantly reduce dataset redundancy. LipiDex interfaces with several LC-MS/MS software packages, enabling robust lipid identification to be readily incorporated into pre-existing data workflows. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Family Health Histories and Their Impact on Retirement Confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Zick, Cathleen D; Mayer, Robert N; Smith, Ken R

2015-08-01

Retirement confidence is a key social barometer. In this article, we examine how personal and parental health histories relate to working-age adults' feelings of optimism or pessimism about their overall retirement prospects. This study links survey data on retirement planning with information on respondents' own health histories and those of their parents. The multivariate models control for the respondents' socio-demographic and economic characteristics along with past retirement planning activities when estimating the relationships between family health histories and retirement confidence. Retirement confidence is inversely related to parental history of cancer and cardiovascular disease but not to personal health history. In contrast, retirement confidence is positively associated with both parents being deceased. As members of the public become increasingly aware of how genetics and other family factors affect intergenerational transmission of chronic diseases, it is likely that the link between family health histories and retirement confidence will intensify. © The Author(s) 2015.

Confidence Measurement in the Light of Signal Detection Theory

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Sébastien eMassoni

2014-12-01

Full Text Available We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale, the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure and the Matching Probability (a generalization of the no-loss gambling method. We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory. We find that the Matching Probability provides better results in that respect. We conclude that Matching Probability is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use Signal Detection Theory as a theoretical framework.

Self-confidence, overconfidence and prenatal testosterone exposure : Evidence from the lab

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dalton, Patricio S.; Ghosal, Sayantan

2018-01-01

This paper examines whether foetal testosterone exposure predicts the extent of confidence and over-confidence in own absolute ability in adulthood. To study this question, we elicited incentive-compatible measures of confidence and over-confidence in the lab and correlate them with measures of

Nonverbal Communication of Confidence in Soccer Referees: An Experimental Test of Darwin's Leakage Hypothesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Furley, Philip; Schweizer, Geoffrey

2016-12-01

The goal of the present paper was to investigate whether soccer referees' nonverbal behavior (NVB) differed based on the difficulty of their decisions and whether perceivers could detect these systematic variations. On the one hand, communicating confidence via NVB is emphasized in referee training. On the other hand, it seems feasible from a theoretical point of view that particularly following relatively difficult decisions referees have problems controlling their NVB. We conducted three experiments to investigate this question. Experiment 1 (N = 40) and Experiment 2 (N = 60) provided evidence that perceivers regard referees' NVB as less confident following ambiguous decisions as compared with following unambiguous decisions. Experiment 3 (N = 58) suggested that perceivers were more likely to debate with the referee when referees nonverbally communicated less confidence. We discuss consequences for referee training.

Enhancing student engagement to positively impact mathematics anxiety, confidence and achievement for interdisciplinary science subjects

Science.gov (United States)

Everingham, Yvette L.; Gyuris, Emma; Connolly, Sean R.

2017-11-01

Contemporary science educators must equip their students with the knowledge and practical know-how to connect multiple disciplines like mathematics, computing and the natural sciences to gain a richer and deeper understanding of a scientific problem. However, many biology and earth science students are prejudiced against mathematics due to negative emotions like high mathematical anxiety and low mathematical confidence. Here, we present a theoretical framework that investigates linkages between student engagement, mathematical anxiety, mathematical confidence, student achievement and subject mastery. We implement this framework in a large, first-year interdisciplinary science subject and monitor its impact over several years from 2010 to 2015. The implementation of the framework coincided with an easing of anxiety and enhanced confidence, as well as higher student satisfaction, retention and achievement. The framework offers interdisciplinary science educators greater flexibility and confidence in their approach to designing and delivering subjects that rely on mathematical concepts and practices.

The Influence of MUET Score and First Language towards English as a Second (ESL Learners’ Self-Confidence

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Zulaikha Khairuddin

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Speaking skill is an important skill among the four English skills and it is also known as expressive skill.  Hence, it is important for students to speak in English confidently and using speaking strategies in order to avoid anxiousness. The two objectives of this study are to identify level of confidence when speaking among Law students and to determine if there is any significant difference in level of confidence when speaking among Law students based on their demographic details (MUET result, first language respectively. This study employed a purely quantitative study. The instrument used in this study was questionnaire and 380 respondents which consisted of Law students from four local universities in Malaysia participated in this study The result from this study indicated the level of self-confidence among Law students was above average and it was also portrayed that there was a significant difference in terms of Law students’ level of self-confidence based on their MUET result and first language correspondingly. Thus, from the results of the study, it is recommended for the stakeholders which are lecturers, the Faculty of Law, the universities and the policy maker to develop more authentic materials and environment for the students.

Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2014-01-01

Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

Stability in the metamemory realism of eyewitness confidence judgments.

Science.gov (United States)

Buratti, Sandra; Allwood, Carl Martin; Johansson, Marcus

2014-02-01

The stability of eyewitness confidence judgments over time in regard to their reported memory and accuracy of these judgments is of interest in forensic contexts because witnesses are often interviewed many times. The present study investigated the stability of the confidence judgments of memory reports of a witnessed event and of the accuracy of these judgments over three occasions, each separated by 1 week. Three age groups were studied: younger children (8-9 years), older children (10-11 years), and adults (19-31 years). A total of 93 participants viewed a short film clip and were asked to answer directed two-alternative forced-choice questions about the film clip and to confidence judge each answer. Different questions about details in the film clip were used on each of the three test occasions. Confidence as such did not exhibit stability over time on an individual basis. However, the difference between confidence and proportion correct did exhibit stability across time, in terms of both over/underconfidence and calibration. With respect to age, the adults and older children exhibited more stability than the younger children for calibration. Furthermore, some support for instability was found with respect to the difference between the average confidence level for correct and incorrect answers (slope). Unexpectedly, however, the younger children's slope was found to be more stable than the adults. Compared to the previous research, the present study's use of more advanced statistical methods provides a more nuanced understanding of the stability of confidence judgments in the eyewitness reports of children and adults.

Nurses' training and confidence on deep venous catheterization.

Science.gov (United States)

Liachopoulou, A P; Synodinou-Kamilou, E E; Deligiannidi, P G; Giannakopoulou, M; Birbas, K N

2008-01-01

The rough estimation of the education and the self-confidence of nurses, both students and professionals, regarding deep venous catheterization in adult patients, the evaluation of the change in self-confidence of one team of students who were trained with a simulator on deep venous catheterization and the correlation of their self-confidence with their performance recorded by the simulator. Seventy-six nurses and one hundred twenty-four undergraduate students participated in the study. Fourty-four University students took part in a two-day educational seminar and were trained on subclavian and femoral vein paracentesis with a simulator and an anatomical model. Three questionnaires were filled in by the participants: one from nurses, one from students of Technological institutions, while the University students filled in the previous questionnaire before their attendance of the seminar, and another questionnaire after having attended it. Impressive results in improving the participants' self-confidence were recorded. However, the weak correlation of their self-confidence with the score automatically provided by the simulator after each user's training obligates us to be particularly cautious about the ability of the users to repeat the action successfully in a clinical environment. Educational courses and simulators are useful educational tools that are likely to shorten but in no case can efface the early phase of the learning curve in clinical setting, substituting the clinical training of inexperienced users.

Improving medical student toxicology knowledge and self-confidence using mannequin simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Halm, Brunhild M; Lee, Meta T; Franke, Adrian A

2010-01-01

Learning medicine without placing patients at increased risk of complications is of utmost importance in the medical profession. High-fidelity patient simulators can potentially achieve this and are therefore increasingly used in the training of medical students. Preclinical medical students have minimal exposure to clinical rotations and commonly feel anxious and apprehensive when starting their clinical years. The objective of this pilot study was to determine if toxicology knowledge and confidence of preclinical second-year medical students could be augmented with simulation training. We designed and implemented a simulation exercise for second-year medical students to enhance learning of Basic Life Support, toxidromes, and management of a semiconscious overdose victim. Groups of 5-6 students were tasked to identify abnormal findings, order tests, and initiate treatment on a mannequin. Faculty observers provided video-assisted feedback immediately afterwards. On-line pre- and posttests were completed in the simulation lab before and after the exercise. This simulation exercise, completed by 52 students, increased test scores on average from 60% to 71% compared to a pre-test. Among the topics tested, students scored worst in identifying normal/abnormal vital signs. Mean confidence increased from 2.0 to 2.6 using a 5-point Likert scale (1-very low to 5-very high). This study suggests that simulation exercises for second-year medical students may be a valuable tool to increase knowledge and student self-confidence at a key transition period prior to beginning clerkship experiences. Further research is needed to prove long-term educational benefits of simulation interventions in the preclinical setting.

STUDY ON THE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT ROMANIAN CONSUMERS HAVE REGARDING THE ORGANIC PRODUCTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Narcis Alexandru BOZGA

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Organic agriculture is a domain that is growing rapidly both in Europe or worldwide and in Romania. However, there is a limited number of researches which, by the used methodology, are able to offer a definite and appropriate image of the Romanian market of organic products. In this respect, we considered as relevant to conduct certain market researches which can offer a wide image of the Romanian market of organic products. The present study aimed to briefly present some ideas learned from these researches concerning the level of confidence that the Romanian consumer has in organic products and the way in which the level of confidence may influence the purchasing behavior. Among the most important conclusions, it could be mentioned the low level of confidence that a large number of Romanian consumers has regarding the organic products, the decision to buy organic products is strongly influenced by the confidence expressed by the consumer, as well as the lack of confidence in organic products represents one of the main reasons for not buying it, in some cases being more important than the high price. After a deeper analysis, the final conclusion is that, at least partially, the low level of confidence in organic products is determined by the confusion and the low information level, on one hand, and by some producers' practices that so not seem to comply with the certification community norms.

Modeling Confidence and Response Time in Recognition Memory

Science.gov (United States)

Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.

2009-01-01

A new model for confidence judgments in recognition memory is presented. In the model, the match between a single test item and memory produces a distribution of evidence, with better matches corresponding to distributions with higher means. On this match dimension, confidence criteria are placed, and the areas between the criteria under the…

Investigation of self-compassion, self-confidence and submissive behaviors of nursing students studying in different curriculums.

Science.gov (United States)

Eraydın, Şahizer; Karagözoğlu, Şerife

2017-07-01

Today, nursing education which educates the future members of the nursing profession aims to gain them high self-esteem, selfconfidence and self-compassion, independence, assertiveness and ability to establish good human relations. This aim can only be achieved through a contemporary curriculum supporting students in the educational process and enabling those in charge to make arrangements by taking the characters and needs of each individual into account. The study aims to investigate self-compassion, self-confidence and submissive behaviours of undergraduate nursing students studying in different curriculums. This descriptive, cross-sectional, comparative study was carried out with the 1st- and 4th-year students of the three schools, each of which has a different curriculum: conventional, integrated and Problem Based Learning (PBL). The study data were collected with the Self-Compassion Scale (SCS), Self-Confidence Scale (CS) and Submissive Acts Scale (SAS): The data were analyzed through frequency distribution, means, analysis of variance and the significance test for the difference between the two means. The mean scores the participating students obtained from the Self-Compassion, Self-confidence and Submissive Acts Scales were 3.31±0.56, 131.98±20.85 and 36.48±11.43 respectively. The integrated program students' mean self-compassion and self-confidence scores were statistically significantly higher and their mean submissive behaviour scores were lower than were those of the students studying in the other two programs (pscales revealed that there was a statistically significant relationships between the SCS and CS values (r=0.388, p<0.001), between the SCS and SAS values (r=-0307, p<0.001) and between the CS and SAS values (r=-0325, p<0.001). In line with the study results, it can be said that the participating nursing students tended to display moderate levels of selfcompassion, self-confidence and submissive behaviours, and that the selfcompassion and self-confidence

A NEW METHOD FOR CONSTRUCTING CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR CPM BASED ON FUZZY DATA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bahram Sadeghpour Gildeh

2011-06-01

Full Text Available A measurement control system ensures that measuring equipment and measurement processes are fit for their intended use and its importance in achieving product quality objectives. In most real life applications, the observations are fuzzy. In some cases specification limits (SLs are not precise numbers and they are expressed in fuzzy terms, s o that the classical capability indices could not be applied. In this paper we obtain 100(1 - α% fuzzy confidence interval for C pm fuzzy process capability index, where instead of precise quality we have two membership functions for specification limits.

Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures

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Ionut Bebu

2016-06-01

Full Text Available For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT, and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates.

Lifetime Estimation of Electrolytic Capacitors in Fuel Cell Power Converter at Various Confidence Levels

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Dao; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

2016-01-01

DC capacitors in power electronic converters are a major constraint on improvement of the power density and the reliability. In this paper, according to the degradation data of tested capacitors, the lifetime model of the component is analyzed at various confidence levels. Then, the mission profile...... based lifetime expectancy of the individual capacitor and the capacitor bank is estimated in a fuel cell backup power converter operating in both standby mode and operation mode. The lifetime prediction of the capacitor banks at different confidence levels is also obtained....

Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven

2013-10-23

The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.

Bootstrap resampling: a powerful method of assessing confidence intervals for doses from experimental data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iwi, G.; Millard, R.K.; Palmer, A.M.; Preece, A.W.; Saunders, M.

1999-01-01

Bootstrap resampling provides a versatile and reliable statistical method for estimating the accuracy of quantities which are calculated from experimental data. It is an empirically based method, in which large numbers of simulated datasets are generated by computer from existing measurements, so that approximate confidence intervals of the derived quantities may be obtained by direct numerical evaluation. A simple introduction to the method is given via a detailed example of estimating 95% confidence intervals for cumulated activity in the thyroid following injection of 99m Tc-sodium pertechnetate using activity-time data from 23 subjects. The application of the approach to estimating confidence limits for the self-dose to the kidney following injection of 99m Tc-DTPA organ imaging agent based on uptake data from 19 subjects is also illustrated. Results are then given for estimates of doses to the foetus following administration of 99m Tc-sodium pertechnetate for clinical reasons during pregnancy, averaged over 25 subjects. The bootstrap method is well suited for applications in radiation dosimetry including uncertainty, reliability and sensitivity analysis of dose coefficients in biokinetic models, but it can also be applied in a wide range of other biomedical situations. (author)

"Depressive Realism" assessed via Confidence in Decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Hancock, J A

1996-08-01

There are two currently influential views regarding the link between cognitive distortions and depression. The first states that depressed individuals perceive the world and themselves with a strong negative bias or distortion, and that mentally healthy individuals perceive the word with relative accuracy. The second ''depressive realism'' camp argues that healthy individuals are positively biased and the depressed are relatively unbiased and hence, more realistic. In the present investigation, subjects suffering from major depression, subjects recovered from major depression, and a group of healthy controls were examined with regard to their confidence in answering each of 99 general knowledge questions. Confidence ratings were analysed separately according to correct or incorrect responses. There were no significant differences in performance (i.e. accuracy of answer between the three groups). When answering correctly, depressed subjects were significantly less confident than healthy control subjects. On answering incorrectly, none of the three groups were significantly different in their confidence ratings. These findings support the cognitive distortion view of depression and provide no evidence of ''depressive realism''.

Australasian emergency physicians: a learning and educational needs analysis. Part two: confidence of FACEM for tasks and skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Paltridge, Debbie; Dent, Andrew W; Weiland, Tracey J

2008-02-01

To determine the degree of confidence perceived by Fellows of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine for a variety of procedural, patient management, educational and research skills, and tasks that may be required of them. Mailed survey with Likert scales and grouped qualitative responses. More than 90% of emergency physicians (EP) feel usually or always confident of their skills for peripheral vascular access, procedural sedation, fluid resuscitation, tube thoracostomy, managing patients with altered conscious state, cardiac emergencies, behavioural disturbance, and interpreting acid base and other blood tests. Less than 50% felt confident performing surgical airways, ED ultrasound, managing neonatal emergencies or interpreting MRI. Of non-clinical skills, while most EP were confident of their ability to write references, debrief staff, lead group tutorials and prepare slides, a minority felt usually or always confident about budgeting and finance, preparing submissions, dealing with the media, appearing in court or marking examination papers. Whilst nearly 75% were confident about the information technology skills required of them for clinical practice, less than 25% of EP felt confident about conducting research and less than 15% were confident applying or interpreting statistics. This information may assist in the planning of future educational interventions for EP.

Challenge for reconstruction of public confidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuura, S.

2001-01-01

Past incidents and scandals that have had a large influence on damaging public confidence in nuclear energy safety are presented. Radiation leak on nuclear-powered ship 'Mutsu' (1974), the T.M.I. incident in 1979, Chernobyl accident (1986), the sodium leak at the Monju reactor (1995), fire and explosion at a low level waste asphalt solidification facility (1997), J.C.O. incident (Tokai- MURA, 1999), are so many examples that have created feelings of distrust and anxiety in society. In order to restore public confidence there is no other course but to be prepared for difficulty and work honestly to our fullest ability, with all steps made openly and accountably. (N.C.)

The Impact of Self-Access Centres in Fostering Confidence, Motivation and Autonomy to Develop Language Skills

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asjad Ahmed Saeed Balla

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This Paper investigates the relation between studying in Self-Access centres and learners’ confidence, motivation and autonomous learning. The study based on three questions: (a To what extent autonomous learning motivates students/users of SAC? (b Is the use of SAC reinforcing students’ confidence? (c To what extent using SAC help in developing the students; learning skills? A questionnaire conducted to show learners; attitudes towards using SAC. The data was statistically analysed. The most important result revealed that the learners felt more confident and motivated after using SAC. Besides, there were a noticeable change in their language understanding and remarkable improvement in their language skills.

Graduating general surgery resident operative confidence: perspective from a national survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Fonseca, Annabelle L; Reddy, Vikram; Longo, Walter E; Gusberg, Richard J

2014-08-01

General surgical training has changed significantly over the last decade with work hour restrictions, increasing subspecialization, the expanding use of minimally invasive techniques, and nonoperative management for solid organ trauma. Given these changes, this study was undertaken to assess the confidence of graduating general surgery residents in performing open surgical operations and to determine factors associated with increased confidence. A survey was developed and sent to general surgery residents nationally. We queried them regarding demographics and program characteristics, asked them to rate their confidence (rated 1-5 on a Likert scale) in performing open surgical procedures and compared those who indicated confidence with those who did not. We received 653 responses from the fifth year (postgraduate year 5) surgical residents: 69% male, 68% from university programs, and 51% from programs affiliated with a Veterans Affairs hospital; 22% from small programs, 34% from medium programs, and 44% from large programs. Anticipated postresidency operative confidence was 72%. More than 25% of residents reported a lack of confidence in performing eight of the 13 operations they were queried about. Training at a university program, a large program, dedicated research years, future fellowship plans, and training at a program that performed a large percentage of operations laparoscopically was associated with decreased confidence in performing a number of open surgical procedures. Increased surgical volume was associated with increased operative confidence. Confidence in performing open surgery also varied regionally. Graduating surgical residents indicated a significant lack of confidence in performing a variety of open surgical procedures. This decreased confidence was associated with age, operative volume as well as type, and location of training program. Analyzing and addressing this confidence deficit merits further study. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All

The Effectiveness of Blackboard-Based Blended Teaching in the Development of Academic Achievement, Study Skills and Self-Confidence among Students of Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University

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Al-Otaibi, Wadha H.

2017-01-01

The present study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of blended teaching, based on the e-learning management system "Blackboard," in the development of academic achievement, study skills and self-confidence among the students of Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University (PNU). The study sample consisted of (38) female students who…

Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

2018-01-01

Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

Science.gov (United States)

Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

2016-01-01

Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

The Influence of Endogenous and Exogenous Spatial Attention on Decision Confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurtz, Phillipp; Shapcott, Katharine A; Kaiser, Jochen; Schmiedt, Joscha T; Schmid, Michael C

2017-07-25

Spatial attention allows us to make more accurate decisions about events in our environment. Decision confidence is thought to be intimately linked to the decision making process as confidence ratings are tightly coupled to decision accuracy. While both spatial attention and decision confidence have been subjected to extensive research, surprisingly little is known about the interaction between these two processes. Since attention increases performance it might be expected that confidence would also increase. However, two studies investigating the effects of endogenous attention on decision confidence found contradictory results. Here we investigated the effects of two distinct forms of spatial attention on decision confidence; endogenous attention and exogenous attention. We used an orientation-matching task, comparing the two attention conditions (endogenous and exogenous) to a control condition without directed attention. Participants performed better under both attention conditions than in the control condition. Higher confidence ratings than the control condition were found under endogenous attention but not under exogenous attention. This finding suggests that while attention can increase confidence ratings, it must be voluntarily deployed for this increase to take place. We discuss possible implications of this relative overconfidence found only during endogenous attention with respect to the theoretical background of decision confidence.

Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

2003-08-01

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

Improved NN-GM(1,1 for Postgraduates’ Employment Confidence Index Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lu Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Postgraduates’ employment confidence index (ECI forecasting can help the university to predict the future trend of postgraduates’ employment. However, the common forecast method based on the grey model (GM has unsatisfactory performance to a certain extent. In order to forecast postgraduates’ ECI efficiently, this paper discusses a novel hybrid forecast model using limited raw samples. Different from previous work, the residual modified GM(1,1 model is combined with the improved neural network (NN in this work. In particullar, the hybrid model reduces the residue of the standard GM(1,1 model as well as accelerating the convergence rate of the standard NN. After numerical studies, the illustrative results are provided to demonstrate the forecast performance of the proposed model. In addition, some strategies for improving the postgraduates’ employment confidence have been discussed.

Confidence interval procedures for Monte Carlo transport simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pederson, S.P.

1997-01-01

The problem of obtaining valid confidence intervals based on estimates from sampled distributions using Monte Carlo particle transport simulation codes such as MCNP is examined. Such intervals can cover the true parameter of interest at a lower than nominal rate if the sampled distribution is extremely right-skewed by large tallies. Modifications to the standard theory of confidence intervals are discussed and compared with some existing heuristics, including batched means normality tests. Two new types of diagnostics are introduced to assess whether the conditions of central limit theorem-type results are satisfied: the relative variance of the variance determines whether the sample size is sufficiently large, and estimators of the slope of the right tail of the distribution are used to indicate the number of moments that exist. A simulation study is conducted to quantify the relationship between various diagnostics and coverage rates and to find sample-based quantities useful in indicating when intervals are expected to be valid. Simulated tally distributions are chosen to emulate behavior seen in difficult particle transport problems. Measures of variation in the sample variance s 2 are found to be much more effective than existing methods in predicting when coverage will be near nominal rates. Batched means tests are found to be overly conservative in this regard. A simple but pathological MCNP problem is presented as an example of false convergence using existing heuristics. The new methods readily detect the false convergence and show that the results of the problem, which are a factor of 4 too small, should not be used. Recommendations are made for applying these techniques in practice, using the statistical output currently produced by MCNP

Methods for confidence interval estimation of a ratio parameter with application to location quotients

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Beyene Joseph

2005-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The location quotient (LQ ratio, a measure designed to quantify and benchmark the degree of relative concentration of an activity in the analysis of area localization, has received considerable attention in the geographic and economics literature. This index can also naturally be applied in the context of population health to quantify and compare health outcomes across spatial domains. However, one commonly observed limitation of LQ is its widespread use as only a point estimate without an accompanying confidence interval. Methods In this paper we present statistical methods that can be used to construct confidence intervals for location quotients. The delta and Fieller's methods are generic approaches for a ratio parameter and the generalized linear modelling framework is a useful re-parameterization particularly helpful for generating profile-likelihood based confidence intervals for the location quotient. A simulation experiment is carried out to assess the performance of each of the analytic approaches and a health utilization data set is used for illustration. Results Both the simulation results as well as the findings from the empirical data show that the different analytical methods produce very similar confidence limits for location quotients. When incidence of outcome is not rare and sample sizes are large, the confidence limits are almost indistinguishable. The confidence limits from the generalized linear model approach might be preferable in small sample situations. Conclusion LQ is a useful measure which allows quantification and comparison of health and other outcomes across defined geographical regions. It is a very simple index to compute and has a straightforward interpretation. Reporting this estimate with appropriate confidence limits using methods presented in this paper will make the measure particularly attractive for policy and decision makers.

A simultaneous confidence band for sparse longitudinal regression

KAUST Repository

Ma, Shujie; Yang, Lijian; Carroll, Raymond J.

2012-01-01

Functional data analysis has received considerable recent attention and a number of successful applications have been reported. In this paper, asymptotically simultaneous confidence bands are obtained for the mean function of the functional regression model, using piecewise constant spline estimation. Simulation experiments corroborate the asymptotic theory. The confidence band procedure is illustrated by analyzing CD4 cell counts of HIV infected patients.

Anatomy-Specific Virtual Reality Simulation in Temporal Bone Dissection: Perceived Utility and Impact on Surgeon Confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Locketz, Garrett D; Lui, Justin T; Chan, Sonny; Salisbury, Kenneth; Dort, Joseph C; Youngblood, Patricia; Blevins, Nikolas H

2017-06-01

Objective To evaluate the effect of anatomy-specific virtual reality (VR) surgical rehearsal on surgeon confidence and temporal bone dissection performance. Study Design Prospective pre- and poststudy of a novel virtual surgical rehearsal platform. Setting Academic otolaryngology-head and neck surgery residency training programs. Subjects and Methods Sixteen otolaryngology-head and neck surgery residents from 2 North American training institutions were recruited. Surveys were administered to assess subjects' baseline confidence in performing 12 subtasks of cortical mastoidectomy with facial recess. A cadaver temporal bone was randomly assigned to each subject. Cadaver specimens were scanned with a clinical computed tomography protocol, allowing the creation of anatomy-specific models for use in a VR surgical rehearsal platform. Subjects then rehearsed a virtual mastoidectomy on data sets derived from their specimens. Surgical confidence surveys were administered again. Subjects then dissected assigned cadaver specimens, which were blindly graded with a modified Welling scale. A final survey assessed the perceived utility of rehearsal on dissection performance. Results Of 16 subjects, 14 (87.5%) reported a significant increase in overall confidence after conducting an anatomy-specific VR rehearsal. A significant correlation existed between perceived utility of rehearsal and confidence improvement. The effect of rehearsal on confidence was dependent on trainee experience and the inherent difficulty of the surgical subtask. Postrehearsal confidence correlated strongly with graded dissection performance. Subjects rated anatomy-specific rehearsal as having a moderate to high contribution to their dissection performance. Conclusion Anatomy-specific virtual rehearsal improves surgeon confidence in performing mastoid dissection, dependent on surgeon experience and task difficulty. The subjective confidence gained through rehearsal correlates positively with subsequent

Confidence Estimation of Reliability Indices of the System with Elements Duplication and Recovery

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I. V. Pavlov

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article considers a problem to estimate a confidence interval of the main reliability indices such as availability rate, mean time between failures, and operative availability (in the stationary state for the model of the system with duplication and independent recovery of elements.Presents a solution of the problem for a situation that often arises in practice, when there are unknown exact values of the reliability parameters of the elements, and only test data of the system or its individual parts (elements, subsystems for reliability are known. It should be noted that the problems of the confidence estimate of reliability indices of the complex systems based on the testing results of their individual elements are fairly common function in engineering practice when designing and running the various engineering systems. The available papers consider this problem, mainly, for non-recovery systems.Describes a solution of this problem for the important particular case when the system elements are duplicated by the reserved elements, and the elements that have failed in the course of system operation are recovered (regardless of the state of other elements.An approximate solution of this problem is obtained for the case of high reliability or "fast recovery" of elements on the assumption that the average recovery time of elements is small as compared to the average time between failures.

Transition Services: An Investigation of the Knowledge, Confidence, and Practice of Special Education Teachers in District of Columbia Public Charter High Schools

Science.gov (United States)

Henry, Wallace R., III

2015-01-01

This study was intended to enhance the limited research on the knowledge and confidence of special education teachers in public education regarding transition services and the quality of transition plans they develop. The key variables examined in this study are knowledge, confidence, and the quality of student transition plans. The sample…

Tables of Confidence Limits for Proportions

Science.gov (United States)

1990-09-01

0.972 180 49 0.319 0.332 0,357 175 165 0.964 0.969 0.976 ISO 50 0.325 0.338 0.363 175 166 0.969 0.973 0.980 180 51 0.331 0.344 0.368 175 167 0.973 0.977...0.528 180 18 0.135 0 145 0.164 180 19 0.141 0.151 0.171 ISO 80 0.495 0,508 0.534 347 UPPER CONFIDENCE LIMIT FOR PROPORTIONS CONFIDENCE LEVEL...500 409 0.8401 0.8459 0.8565 500 355 0.7364 0.7434 0.7564 500 356 0.7383 0.7453 0.7582 500 410 0.8420 0.8478 0 8583 500 357 0.7402 0.7472 0.7602 500

Confidence building - is science the only approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bragg, K.

1990-01-01

The Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) has begun to develop some simplified methods to determine if it is possible to provide confidence that dose, risk and environmental criteria can be respected without undue reliance on detailed scientific models. The progress to date will be outlined and the merits of this new approach will be compared to the more complex, traditional approach. Stress will be given to generating confidence in both technical and non-technical communities as well as the need to enhance communication between them. 3 refs., 1 tab

Australian midwives and provision of nutrition education during pregnancy: A cross sectional survey of nutrition knowledge, attitudes, and confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Arrish, Jamila; Yeatman, Heather; Williamson, Moira

2016-10-01

Maternal nutrition during pregnancy affects the health of the mother and the baby. Midwives are ideally placed to provide nutrition education to pregnant women. There is limited published research evidence of Australian midwives' nutrition knowledge, attitudes and confidence. To investigate Australian midwives' nutrition knowledge, attitudes and confidence in providing nutrition education during pregnancy. Members of the Australian College of Midwives (n=4770) were sent an invitation email to participate in a web-based survey, followed by two reminders. The completion rate was 6.9% (329 of 4770). The majority (86.6% and 75.7%, respectively) highly rated the importance of nutrition during pregnancy and the significance of their role in nutrition education. Midwives' nutrition knowledge was inadequate in several areas such as weight gain, dairy serves and iodine requirements (73.3%, 73.2% and 79.9% incorrect responses, respectively). The level of confidence in discussing general and specific nutrition issues ranged mostly from moderate to low. The majority of the midwives (93%) provided nutrition advice to pregnant women. This advice was mostly described as 'general' and focused on general nutrition topics. Only half of the midwives reported receiving nutrition education during midwifery education (51.1%) or after registration (54.1%). Australian midwives' attitudes towards nutrition during pregnancy and their role in educating pregnant women about it were positive but their knowledge and confidence did not align with these attitudes. This could be due to minimal nutrition education during midwifery education or during practice. Continued education to improve midwives' nutrition knowledge and confidence is essential. Copyright © 2016 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A theory of planned behaviour-based analysis of TIMSS 2011 to determine factors influencing inquiry teaching practices in high-performing countries

Science.gov (United States)

Pongsophon, Pongprapan; Herman, Benjamin C.

2017-07-01

Given the abundance of literature describing the strong relationship between inquiry-based teaching and student achievement, more should be known about the factors impacting science teachers' classroom inquiry implementation. This study utilises the theory of planned behaviour to propose and validate a causal model of inquiry-based teaching through analysing data relating to high-performing countries retrieved from the 2011 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study assessments. Data analysis was completed through structural equation modelling using a polychoric correlation matrix for data input and diagonally weighted least squares estimation. Adequate fit of the full model to the empirical data was realised. The model demonstrates that the extent the teachers participated in academic collaborations was positively related to their occupational satisfaction, confidence in teaching inquiry, and classroom inquiry practices. Furthermore, the teachers' confidence with implementing inquiry was positively related to their classroom inquiry implementation and occupational satisfaction. However, perceived student-generated constraints demonstrated a negative relationship with the teachers' confidence with implementing inquiry and occupational satisfaction. Implications from this study include supporting teachers through promoting collaborative opportunities that facilitate inquiry-based practices and occupational satisfaction.

Animal Spirits and Extreme Confidence: No Guts, No Glory?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.G. Douwens-Zonneveld (Mariska)

2012-01-01

textabstractThis study investigates to what extent extreme confidence of either management or security analysts may impact financial or operating performance. We construct a multidimensional degree of company confidence measure from a wide range of corporate decisions. We empirically test this

Knowledge and reported confidence of final year midwifery students regarding giving advice on contraception and sexual health.

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Susan H; Davis, Geraldine

2014-05-01

this study explored the views of three cohorts of final year midwifery students, regarding their confidence in giving advice to women on contraception and sexual health in the postnatal period. The project also investigated knowledge of contraception using a factual quiz, based on clinical scenarios regarding contraception and sexual health in the postpartum period. a mixed method design using qualitative data from focus groups, and mixed qualitative and quantitative data from a paper based questionnaire was used. the project was carried out in one higher educational institution in England. findings demonstrate that expressed confidence varies according to contraceptive method, with most confidence being reported when advising on the male condom. The findings of the factual quiz indicate that students applied theoretical knowledge poorly in a practically oriented context. These findings also indicated that most students limited advice to general advice. the paper concludes that midwifery students need more practically oriented education in contraception and sexual health, and that the role of mentors is very important in helping students feel confident when giving advice in this area. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Undergraduate Confidence When Undertaking Root Canal Treatment and Their Perception of the Quality of Their Endodontic Education

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James Puryer

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The General Dental Council expects graduating dentists to be competent at treating pulpal disease. Previous studies have found dental undergraduates to have low levels of confidence with respect to endodontic treatments. The aim of this study was to investigate the confidence of undergraduate dental students at the University of Bristol when performing root canal treatment, and to investigate their perception of the quality of their endodontic education. An anonymous questionnaire, based upon one used in a 2015 study at Cardiff University, was distributed to all (n = 204 undergraduate students in Years 3–5 at the University of Bristol. The results were analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences software (SPSS. There was a 59% (n = 120 response rate and a significant (p < 0.01 difference in confidence levels for root canal treatments (RCTs completed between these students. All (100% Year-5 students felt confident in completing anterior RCTs, and 91% felt confident in completing posterior RCTs. The majority (93% of Year-4 students felt confident in completing anterior RCTs, and 77% felt confident in completing posterior RCTs. Over one-half (56% of Year-3 students felt confident in anterior RCTs and 17% in posterior RCTs. With respect to the individual stages of RCT (access cavity, cleaning and shaping of root canal system, and obturation/filling, results showed that there was a significant difference (p < 0.01 in confidence levels between year groups. Many students thought the amount of time spent on endodontic teaching and the quality of teaching to be satisfactory. Improvements suggested for future endodontic teaching included higher numbers of staff supervision and additional endodontic practice on extracted teeth before seeing patients. There was a strong association between students’ clinical experience and their levels of confidence when completing RCT. Increasing the amount of clinical experience of RCTs could

Open cholecystectomy: Exposure and confidence of surgical trainees and new fellows.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Beth M; Lambrianides, Andreas L; Dulhunty, Joel M

2018-03-01

The laparoscopic approach to cholecystectomy has overtaken open procedures in terms of frequency, despite open procedures playing an important role in certain clinical situations. This study explored exposure and confidence of Australasian surgical trainees and new fellows in performing an open versus laparoscopic cholecystectomy. An online survey was disseminated via the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons to senior general surgery trainees (years 3-5 of surgical training) and new fellows (fellowship within the previous 5 years). The survey included questions regarding level of experience and confidence in performing an open cholecystectomy and converting from a laparoscopic to an open approach. A total of 135 participants responded; 58 (43%) were surgical trainees, 58 (43%) were fellows and 19 (14%) did not specify their level of training. Respondents who were involved in more than 20 open cholecystectomy procedures as an assistant or independent operator compared with those less exposed were more likely to feel confident to independently perform an elective open cholecystectomy (87.8% vs. 57.3%, P = 0.001), independently convert from a laparoscopic to open cholecystectomy (87.8% vs. 58.7%, P = 0.001) and independently perform an open cholecystectomy as a surgical consultant based on their level of exposure as a trainee (73.2% vs. 45.3%, P = 0.004). This study suggests the need to ensure surgical trainees are exposed to sufficient open cholecystectomies to enable confidence and skill with performing these procedures when indicated. Greater recognition of the need for exposure during training, including meaningful simulation, may assist. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of self - confidence scale for clean urinary intermittent self - catheterization for patients and health - caregivers

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Cintia Fernandes Baccarin Biaziolo

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To validate a measurement instrument for clean intermittent self-catheterization for patients and health-caregivers. Material and Methods Methodological study of instrument validation performed at a Rehabilitation Center in a University hospital for patients submitted to clean intermittent self-catheterization and their health-caregivers. Following ethical criteria, data were collected during interview with nurse staff using a Likert question form containing 16 items with 5 points each: “no confidence”=1, “little confidence”=2, “confident”=3, “very confident”=4 and “completely confident”=5. Questionnaire called “Self-Confident Scale for Clean Intermittent Self-catheterization” (SCSCISC was constructed based on literature and previously validated (appearance and content. Results The instrument was validated by 122 patients and 119 health-caregivers, in a proportion of 15:1. It was observed a good linear association and sample adequacy KMO 0.931 and X2=2881.63, p<0.001. Anti-image matrix showed high values at diagonal suggesting inclusion of all factors. Screen plot analysis showed a suggestion of items maintenance in a single set. It was observed high correlation of all items with the total, alpha-Cronbach 0.944. The same results were obtained in subsamples of patients and health-caregivers. Conclusion The instrument showed good psychometric adequacy corroborating its use for evaluation of self-confidence during clean intermittent self-catheterization.

The influence of endogenous and exogenous spatial attention on decision confidence

OpenAIRE

Kurtz, Phillipp; Shapcott, Katharine A.; Kaiser , Jochen; Schmiedt, Joscha T.; Schmid, Michael C.

2017-01-01

Spatial attention allows us to make more accurate decisions about events in our environment. Decision confidence is thought to be intimately linked to the decision making process as confidence ratings are tightly coupled to decision accuracy. While both spatial attention and decision confidence have been subjected to extensive research, surprisingly little is known about the interaction between these two processes. Since attention increases performance it might be expected that confidence wou...

Learning to make collective decisions: the impact of confidence escalation.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoodi, Ali; Bang, Dan; Ahmadabadi, Majid Nili; Bahrami, Bahador

2013-01-01

Little is known about how people learn to take into account others' opinions in joint decisions. To address this question, we combined computational and empirical approaches. Human dyads made individual and joint visual perceptual decision and rated their confidence in those decisions (data previously published). We trained a reinforcement (temporal difference) learning agent to get the participants' confidence level and learn to arrive at a dyadic decision by finding the policy that either maximized the accuracy of the model decisions or maximally conformed to the empirical dyadic decisions. When confidences were shared visually without verbal interaction, RL agents successfully captured social learning. When participants exchanged confidences visually and interacted verbally, no collective benefit was achieved and the model failed to predict the dyadic behaviour. Behaviourally, dyad members' confidence increased progressively and verbal interaction accelerated this escalation. The success of the model in drawing collective benefit from dyad members was inversely related to confidence escalation rate. The findings show an automated learning agent can, in principle, combine individual opinions and achieve collective benefit but the same agent cannot discount the escalation suggesting that one cognitive component of collective decision making in human may involve discounting of overconfidence arising from interactions.

Confidence, Visual Research, and the Aesthetic Function

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stan Ruecker

2007-05-01

Full Text Available The goal of this article is to identify and describe one of the primary purposes of aesthetic quality in the design of computer interfaces and visualization tools. We suggest that humanists can derive advantages in visual research by acknowledging by their efforts to advance aesthetic quality that a significant function of aesthetics in this context is to inspire the user’s confidence. This confidence typically serves to create a sense of trust in the provider of the interface or tool. In turn, this increased trust may result in an increased willingness to engage with the object, on the basis that it demonstrates an attention to detail that promises to reward increased engagement. In addition to confidence, the aesthetic may also contribute to a heightened degree of satisfaction with having spent time using or investigating the object. In the realm of interface design and visualization research, we propose that these aesthetic functions have implications not only for the quality of interactions, but also for the results of the standard measures of performance and preference.

Experiential Education Builds Student Self-Confidence in Delivering Medication Therapy Management

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Wendy M. Parker

2017-07-01

Full Text Available To determine the impact of advanced pharmacy practice experiences (APPE on student self-confidence related to medication therapy management (MTM, fourth-year pharmacy students were surveyed pre/post APPE to: identify exposure to MTM learning opportunities, assess knowledge of the MTM core components, and assess self-confidence performing MTM services. An anonymous electronic questionnaire administered pre/post APPE captured demographics, factors predicted to impact student self-confidence (Grade point average (GPA, work experience, exposure to MTM learning opportunities, MTM knowledge and self-confidence conducting MTM using a 5-point Likert scale (1 = Not at all Confident; 5 = Extremely Confident. Sixty-two students (26% response rate responded to the pre-APPE questionnaire and n = 44 (18% to the post-APPE. Over 90% demonstrated MTM knowledge and 68.2% completed MTM learning activities. APPE experiences significantly improved students’ overall self-confidence (pre-APPE = 3.27 (0.85 SD, post-APPE = 4.02 (0.88, p < 0.001. Students engaging in MTM learning opportunities had higher self-confidence post-APPE (4.20 (0.71 vs. those not reporting MTM learning opportunities (3.64 (1.08, p = 0.05. Post-APPE, fewer students reported MTM was patient-centric or anticipated engaging in MTM post-graduation. APPE learning opportunities increased student self-confidence to provide MTM services. However, the reduction in anticipated engagement in MTM post-graduation and reduction in sensing the patient-centric nature of MTM practice, may reveal a gap between practice expectations and reality.

Determining frequentist confidence limits using a directed parameter space search

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daniel, Scott F.; Connolly, Andrew J.; Schneider, Jeff

2014-01-01

We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter space by intelligently targeting likelihood evaluations so as to quickly and accurately characterize the likelihood surface in both low- and high-likelihood regions. We compare our algorithm to Bayesian credible limits derived by the well-tested Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using both multi-modal toy likelihood functions and the seven yr Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe cosmic microwave background likelihood function. We find that our algorithm correctly identifies the location, general size, and general shape of high-likelihood regions in parameter space while being more robust against multi-modality than MCMC.

Is simulation training effective in increasing podiatrists' confidence in foot ulcer management?

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Régo Patricia M

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Foot ulcers are a frequent reason for diabetes-related hospitalisation. Clinical training is known to have a beneficial impact on foot ulcer outcomes. Clinical training using simulation techniques has rarely been used in the management of diabetes-related foot complications or chronic wounds. Simulation can be defined as a device or environment that attempts to replicate the real world. The few non-web-based foot-related simulation courses have focused solely on training for a single skill or "part task" (for example, practicing ingrown toenail procedures on models. This pilot study aimed to primarily investigate the effect of a training program using multiple methods of simulation on participants' clinical confidence in the management of foot ulcers. Methods Sixteen podiatrists participated in a two-day Foot Ulcer Simulation Training (FUST course. The course included pre-requisite web-based learning modules, practicing individual foot ulcer management part tasks (for example, debriding a model foot ulcer, and participating in replicated clinical consultation scenarios (for example, treating a standardised patient (actor with a model foot ulcer. The primary outcome measure of the course was participants' pre- and post completion of confidence surveys, using a five-point Likert scale (1 = Unacceptable-5 = Proficient. Participants' knowledge, satisfaction and their perception of the relevance and fidelity (realism of a range of course elements were also investigated. Parametric statistics were used to analyse the data. Pearson's r was used for correlation, ANOVA for testing the differences between groups, and a paired-sample t-test to determine the significance between pre- and post-workshop scores. A minimum significance level of p Results An overall 42% improvement in clinical confidence was observed following completion of FUST (mean scores 3.10 compared to 4.40, p Conclusions This pilot study suggests simulation training

Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Broten, G S; Wood, H C [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

1996-12-31

This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network`s ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor`s response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in

Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broten, G.S.; Wood, H.C.

1995-01-01

This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network's ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor's response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in

The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.

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Florent Meyniel

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics. Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems

Perceived confidence, competence and training in evidence-based treatments for eating disorders: a survey of clinicians in an Australian regional health service.

Science.gov (United States)

Lakeman, Richard; McIntosh, Christine

2018-03-01

Eating disorders (EDs) are challenging to treat and contribute to considerable morbidity and mortality. This study sought to identify the educational preparedness, competence and confidence of clinicians to work with people with EDs; and to identify how services might be improved. Clinicians who worked in the emergency department, medical, paediatric wards and mental health services were invited to complete an online survey. From the 136 surveys returned, 73% of respondents reported little or no confidence working with EDs. There was a strong linear correlation between perceived confidence and competence and hours of education. Those with 70 or more hours of self-reported training were 2.7 times more likely to rate themselves as both confident and competent. Improving services for people with eating disorders included the provision of appropriate training, improving access to services including psychotherapy, and facilitating consistency in and continuity of care. To increase the confidence and competence of the workforce, regular training around EDs should be undertaken. The establishment of a specialist team to provide services across the continuum of care for people with severe or complex EDs appears warranted in a regional health service.

Assessment of cartilage-dedicated sequences at ultra-high-field MRI: comparison of imaging performance and diagnostic confidence between 3.0 and 7.0 T with respect to osteoarthritis-induced changes at the knee joint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stahl, Robert [University of California, Musculoskeletal and Quantitative Imaging Group, Department of Radiology, San Francisco, CA (United States); University Hospitals - Campus Grosshadern, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Department of Clinical Radiology, Munich (Germany); Krug, Roland; Zuo, Jin; Majumdar, Sharmila; Link, Thomas M. [University of California, Musculoskeletal and Quantitative Imaging Group, Department of Radiology, San Francisco, CA (United States); Kelley, Douglas A.C. [General Electrics Healthcare Technologies, San Francisco, CA (United States); Ma, C.B. [University of California, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, San Francisco, CA (United States)

2009-08-15

The objectives of the study were to optimize three cartilage-dedicated sequences for in vivo knee imaging at 7.0 T ultra-high-field (UHF) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to compare imaging performance and diagnostic confidence concerning osteoarthritis (OA)-induced changes at 7.0 and 3.0 T MRI. Optimized MRI sequences for cartilage imaging at 3.0 T were tailored for 7.0 T: an intermediate-weighted fast spin-echo (IM-w FSE), a fast imaging employing steady-state acquisition (FIESTA) and a T1-weighted 3D high-spatial-resolution volumetric fat-suppressed spoiled gradient-echo (SPGR) sequence. Three healthy subjects and seven patients with mild OA were examined. Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), diagnostic confidence in assessing cartilage abnormalities, and image quality were determined. Abnormalities were assessed with the whole organ magnetic resonance imaging score (WORMS). Focal cartilage lesions and bone marrow edema pattern (BMEP) were also quantified. At 7.0 T, SNR was increased (p<0.05) for all sequences. For the IM-w FSE sequence, limitations with the specific absorption rate (SAR) required modifications of the scan parameters yielding an incomplete coverage of the knee joint, extensive artifacts, and a less effective fat saturation. CNR and image quality were increased (p<0.05) for SPGR and FIESTA and decreased for IM-w FSE. Diagnostic confidence for cartilage lesions was highest (p<0.05) for FIESTA at 7.0 T. Evaluation of BMEP was decreased (p < 0.05) at 7.0 T due to limited performance of IM-w FSE. Gradient echo-based pulse sequences like SPGR and FIESTA are well suited for imaging at UHF which may improve early detection of cartilage lesions. However, UHF IM-w FSE sequences are less feasible for clinical use. (orig.)

Assessment of cartilage-dedicated sequences at ultra-high-field MRI: comparison of imaging performance and diagnostic confidence between 3.0 and 7.0 T with respect to osteoarthritis-induced changes at the knee joint

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stahl, Robert; Krug, Roland; Zuo, Jin; Majumdar, Sharmila; Link, Thomas M.; Kelley, Douglas A.C.; Ma, C.B.

2009-01-01

The objectives of the study were to optimize three cartilage-dedicated sequences for in vivo knee imaging at 7.0 T ultra-high-field (UHF) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to compare imaging performance and diagnostic confidence concerning osteoarthritis (OA)-induced changes at 7.0 and 3.0 T MRI. Optimized MRI sequences for cartilage imaging at 3.0 T were tailored for 7.0 T: an intermediate-weighted fast spin-echo (IM-w FSE), a fast imaging employing steady-state acquisition (FIESTA) and a T1-weighted 3D high-spatial-resolution volumetric fat-suppressed spoiled gradient-echo (SPGR) sequence. Three healthy subjects and seven patients with mild OA were examined. Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), diagnostic confidence in assessing cartilage abnormalities, and image quality were determined. Abnormalities were assessed with the whole organ magnetic resonance imaging score (WORMS). Focal cartilage lesions and bone marrow edema pattern (BMEP) were also quantified. At 7.0 T, SNR was increased (p<0.05) for all sequences. For the IM-w FSE sequence, limitations with the specific absorption rate (SAR) required modifications of the scan parameters yielding an incomplete coverage of the knee joint, extensive artifacts, and a less effective fat saturation. CNR and image quality were increased (p<0.05) for SPGR and FIESTA and decreased for IM-w FSE. Diagnostic confidence for cartilage lesions was highest (p<0.05) for FIESTA at 7.0 T. Evaluation of BMEP was decreased (p < 0.05) at 7.0 T due to limited performance of IM-w FSE. Gradient echo-based pulse sequences like SPGR and FIESTA are well suited for imaging at UHF which may improve early detection of cartilage lesions. However, UHF IM-w FSE sequences are less feasible for clinical use. (orig.)

The impact of a community-based food skills intervention on cooking confidence, food preparation methods and dietary choices - an exploratory trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Wrieden, Wendy L; Anderson, Annie S; Longbottom, Pat J; Valentine, Karen; Stead, Martine; Caraher, Martin; Lang, Tim; Gray, Bill; Dowler, Elizabeth

2007-02-01

To evaluate the feasibility of undertaking a food skills intervention study in areas of social deprivation aimed at altering cooking confidence, food preparation methods and dietary choices. A standardised skills programme was implemented in community-based settings. Pre- (T1) and post-intervention (T2) and 6-month follow-up (T3) measures (7-day diaries and self-administered questionnaires) were undertaken in intervention and comparison groups. Eight urban communities in Scotland. One hundred and thirteen adults living in areas of social deprivation. It was clear that many subjects led fragmented lives and found commitment to intervention classes problematic. Sixty-three subjects completed the final (T3) assessments. The response to each component varied due to inability to attend sessions, illness, study requirements, employment, moving out of the area, change in circumstances, loss of interest and loss of postal questionnaires. At baseline, reported consumption of fruit and vegetables was low (mean frequency 8.1 +/- 4.78 times per week). Fruit intake increased significantly (P food skills intervention is likely to have a small but positive effect on food choice and confidence in food preparation. A full-scale randomised controlled trial in this hard-to-reach group would require a range of flexible approaches rather than a fully defined intervention, and presents challenges for trial design.

Monitoring consumer confidence in food safety: an exploratory study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jonge, de J.; Frewer, L.J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Renes, R.J.; Wit, de W.; Timmers, J.C.M.

2004-01-01

Abstract: In response to the potential for negative economic and societal effects resulting from a low level of consumer confidence in food safety, it is important to know how confidence is potentially influenced by external events. The aim of this article is to describe the development of a monitor

An Exploration of Students' Science Learning Interest Related to Their Cognitive Anxiety, Cognitive Load, Self-Confidence and Learning Progress Using Inquiry-Based Learning With an iPad

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Jon-Chao; Hwang, Ming-Yueh; Tai, Kai-Hsin; Tsai, Chi-Ruei

2017-12-01

Based on the cognitive-affective theory, the present study designed a science inquiry learning model, predict-observe-explain (POE), and implemented it in an app called "WhyWhy" to examine the effectiveness of students' science inquiry learning practice. To understand how POE can affect the cognitive-affective learning process, as well as the learning progress, a pretest and a posttest were given to 152 grade 5 elementary school students. The students practiced WhyWhy during six sessions over 6 weeks, and data related to interest in learning science (ILS), cognitive anxiety (CA), and extraneous cognitive load (ECL) were collected and analyzed through confirmatory factor analysis with structure equation modeling. The results showed that students with high ILS have low CA and ECL. In addition, the results also indicated that students with a high level of self-confidence enhancement showed significant improvement in the posttest. The implications of this study suggest that by using technology-enhanced science learning, the POE model is a practical approach to motivate students to learn.

Differentially Private Confidence Intervals for Empirical Risk Minimization

OpenAIRE

Wang, Yue; Kifer, Daniel; Lee, Jaewoo

2018-01-01

The process of data mining with differential privacy produces results that are affected by two types of noise: sampling noise due to data collection and privacy noise that is designed to prevent the reconstruction of sensitive information. In this paper, we consider the problem of designing confidence intervals for the parameters of a variety of differentially private machine learning models. The algorithms can provide confidence intervals that satisfy differential privacy (as well as the mor...

PHYSIOTHERAPISTS ATTIRE: DOES IT AFFECT PATIENTS COMFORT, CONFIDENCE AND OVERALL PATIENT-THERAPIST RELATIONSHIP

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adamu Ahmad Rufa'i

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Background: Attire is one of the major determinants of appearance and a key element of non-verbal communication that plays a critical role in the establishment and sustainability of therapeutic relationships. This study aimed to determine the patients’ preferred physiotherapists’ attire and the effect of physiotherapists’ attire on patients’ confidence, comfort and patient-therapists relationship. Methods: A questionnaire was used to collect data in this cross sectional study design. Patients (N=281 attending outpatients physiotherapy clinics in six selected tertiary health institutions in North-eastern Nigeria completed a questionnaire consisting of two sections. Section one solicited sociodemographic information while in section two patients rated their level of confidence and comfort with physiotherapists based on a photo pictures of a male and a female physiotherapists models in four different attires. Descriptive statistics were performed to characterize participants and the differences in patients’ confidence and comfort level by different types of attire were assessed using chi-square. The correlation between physiotherapists’ attire and patient-physiotherapist relationship was determined using spearman rank correlation. Results: Overwhelming majority of the participants were more comfortable (91.1% and more confident (89.0% with the physiotherapists dressed in white coat, while they were less comfortable and less confident when their therapists are dressed in suit, native or casual wear. Positive patient-therapist relationship was observed with white coat dressed physiotherapists; while the relationship with business, native and casual wears were inverse. Conclusion: The study supports for continuing recommendation of lab coat as a professional dressing for physiotherapists in Nigeria and affirms the importance of professional dressing in patient-therapists relationship.

What is 'confidence' and what could affect it?: A qualitative study of mothers who are hesitant about vaccines.

Science.gov (United States)

Mendel-Van Alstyne, Judith A; Nowak, Glen J; Aikin, Ann L

2017-09-09

Public confidence in immunization is critical to maintaining high vaccine-coverage rates needed to protect individuals and communities from vaccine-preventable diseases. Recent attention has been placed on factors influencing confidence in vaccination in the US and globally, but comprehensive understanding of what drives or hinders confidence in childhood vaccination is yet to be reached. As such, assessing parents' confidence in childhood vaccination and the ways in which educational materials affect confidence is needed. We sought to (1) learn how mothers who are hesitant about vaccination characterize confidence in health-related products for young children, including the recommended vaccines; (2) gain insights on what influences vaccine confidence beliefs; and (3) assess whether short, education materials affect parental confidence in childhood vaccinations. Eight moderator-lead focus groups (n=61), stratified by socioeconomic status, were undertaken with mothers of children 5years of age of less who are hesitant about vaccines. Four of the groups were held in the Philadelphia, PA area and four were held in the San Francisco/Oakland, CA area. Three educational material pairs, each consisting of a 2-3min video and an infographic poster about an immunization-related topic, were reviewed and assessed for influence on confidence. Qualitative data analysis was used to identify overarching themes across the focus groups. Themes, insights, and illustrative quotes were identified and provided for each of the major discussion areas: primary health concerns for young children; confidence beliefs and perceptions, including for recommended vaccines; facilitators and barriers to confidence; and reactions to the educational materials. Results provide helpful insights into how mothers who are hesitant about vaccines perceive confidence in childhood vaccines and health-related products, suggestions for how to improve confidence, and support for the value and use of short

True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

Science.gov (United States)

Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

2015-01-01

Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

Science.gov (United States)

Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

2014-01-01

The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tak Fung

Full Text Available The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%, a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L., occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

Confidence in Phase Definition for Periodicity in Genes Expression Time Series.

Science.gov (United States)

El Anbari, Mohammed; Fadda, Abeer; Ptitsyn, Andrey

2015-01-01

Circadian oscillation in baseline gene expression plays an important role in the regulation of multiple cellular processes. Most of the knowledge of circadian gene expression is based on studies measuring gene expression over time. Our ability to dissect molecular events in time is determined by the sampling frequency of such experiments. However, the real peaks of gene activity can be at any time on or between the time points at which samples are collected. Thus, some genes with a peak activity near the observation point have their phase of oscillation detected with better precision then those which peak between observation time points. Separating genes for which we can confidently identify peak activity from ambiguous genes can improve the analysis of time series gene expression. In this study we propose a new statistical method to quantify the phase confidence of circadian genes. The numerical performance of the proposed method has been tested using three real gene expression data sets.

An assessment of the precision and confidence of aquatic eddy correlation measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Donis, Daphne; Holtappels, Moritz; Noss, Christian

2015-01-01

facility with well-constrained hydrodynamics. These observations are used to review data processing procedures and to recommend improved deployment methods, thus improving the precision, reliability, and confidence of EC measurements. Specifically, this study demonstrates that 1) the alignment of the time...... series based on maximum cross correlation improved the precision of EC flux estimations; 2) an oxygen sensor with a response time of

A View from the Inside: An In-Depth Look at a Female University Student's Experience with a Feel-Based Intervention to Enhance Self-Confidence and Self-Talk

Science.gov (United States)

Guerin, Eva; Arcand, Isabelle; Durand-Bush, Natalie

2010-01-01

The primary goal of this investigation was to document, using the participatory paradigm, a female university student's experience with a feel-based intervention intended to enhance the quality of her academic experiences including her self-confidence and self-talk. In this unique qualitative case study, the student participated in a 15-week…

Building and strengthening confidence and security in Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Corden, P.S.

1992-01-01

This paper presents a few thoughts on the question of building and strengthening confidence and security in Asia, in particular in the area centred on the Korean peninsula. This question includes the process of establishing and implementing confidence- and security-building measures, some of which might involve States other than North and South Korea. The development of CSBMs has now been well established in Europe, and there are encouraging signs that such measures are taking hold in other areas of the world, including in Korea. Consequently there is a fairly rich mine of information, precedent and experience from which to draw in focusing on the particular subject at hand. In these remarks the concept of confidence- and security-building is briefly addressed and measures are examined that have proven useful in other circumstances and review some possibilities that appear of interest in the present context

The Effect of a Surgical Skills Course on Confidence Levels of Rural General Practitioners: An Observational Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Byrd, Pippa; Ward, Olga; Hamdorf, Jeffrey

2016-10-01

Objective  To investigate the effect of a short surgical skills course on general practitioners' confidence levels to perform procedural skills. Design  Prospective observational study. Setting  The Clinical Evaluation and Training Centre, a practical skills-based educational facility, at The University of Western Australia. Participants  Medical practitioners who participated in these courses. Nurses, physiotherapists, and medical students were excluded. The response rate was 61% with 61 participants providing 788 responses for pre- and postcourse confidence levels regarding various surgical skills. Intervention  One- to two-day surgical skills courses consisting of presentations, demonstrations, and practical stations, facilitated by specialists. Main Outcome Measures  A two-page precourse and postcourse questionnaire was administered to medical practitioners on the day. Participants rated their confidence levels to perform skills addressed during the course on a 4-point Likert scale. Results  Of the 788 responses regarding confidence levels, 621 were rated as improved postcourse, 163 were rated as no change, and 4 were rated as lower postcourse. Seven of the courses showed a 25% median increase in confidence levels, and one course demonstrated a 50% median increase. All courses showed statistically significant results ( p  skills course resulted in a statistically significant improvement in the confidence levels of rural general practitioners to perform these skills.

Faults Diagnostics of Railway Axle Bearings Based on IMF’s Confidence Index Algorithm for Ensemble EMD

Science.gov (United States)

Yi, Cai; Lin, Jianhui; Zhang, Weihua; Ding, Jianming

2015-01-01

As train loads and travel speeds have increased over time, railway axle bearings have become critical elements which require more efficient non-destructive inspection and fault diagnostics methods. This paper presents a novel and adaptive procedure based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and Hilbert marginal spectrum for multi-fault diagnostics of axle bearings. EEMD overcomes the limitations that often hypothesize about data and computational efforts that restrict the application of signal processing techniques. The outputs of this adaptive approach are the intrinsic mode functions that are treated with the Hilbert transform in order to obtain the Hilbert instantaneous frequency spectrum and marginal spectrum. Anyhow, not all the IMFs obtained by the decomposition should be considered into Hilbert marginal spectrum. The IMFs’ confidence index arithmetic proposed in this paper is fully autonomous, overcoming the major limit of selection by user with experience, and allows the development of on-line tools. The effectiveness of the improvement is proven by the successful diagnosis of an axle bearing with a single fault or multiple composite faults, e.g., outer ring fault, cage fault and pin roller fault. PMID:25970256

The integrated model of sport confidence: a canonical correlation and mediational analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Koehn, Stefan; Pearce, Alan J; Morris, Tony

2013-12-01

The main purpose of the study was to examine crucial parts of Vealey's (2001) integrated framework hypothesizing that sport confidence is a mediating variable between sources of sport confidence (including achievement, self-regulation, and social climate) and athletes' affect in competition. The sample consisted of 386 athletes, who completed the Sources of Sport Confidence Questionnaire, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Dispositional Flow Scale-2. Canonical correlation analysis revealed a confidence-achievement dimension underlying flow. Bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals in AMOS 20.0 were used in examining mediation effects between source domains and dispositional flow. Results showed that sport confidence partially mediated the relationship between achievement and self-regulation domains and flow, whereas no significant mediation was found for social climate. On a subscale level, full mediation models emerged for achievement and flow dimensions of challenge-skills balance, clear goals, and concentration on the task at hand.

Medical Students? Confidence Judgments Using a Factual Database and Personal Memory: A Comparison.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Keefe, Karen M.; Wildemuth, Barbara M.; Friedman, Charles P.

1999-01-01

This study examined the quality of medical students' confidence estimates in answering questions in bacteriology based on personal knowledge alone and what they retrieved from a factual database in microbiology, in order to determine whether medical students can recognize when an information need has been fulfilled and when it has not. (Author/LRW)

Elevation-based upscaling of organic carbon stocks in High-Arctic permafrost terrain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Weiss, Niels; Faucherre, Samuel; Lampiris, Nikos

2017-01-01

Accurate quantity and distribution estimates of permafrost soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are needed to project potential feedbacks to climate, following warming. Still, upscaling from local field observations to regional estimates to circumarctic assessments remains a challenge. Here we explore...... elevation-based upscaling techniques for High-Arctic permafrost SOC stocks. We combine two detailed, high-resolution SOC inventories on Spitsbergen (Svalbard) with regional validation data. We find a clear relationship between elevation and SOC content, and use this observed exponential correlation, as well...... as discrete elevation classes, as upscaling models for Spitsbergen. We estimate the total amount of permafrost SOC currently present in soils on Spitsbergen to be 105.36 Tg (0.11 Pg), with a mean SOC content of 2.84 ± 0.74 kg C m−2 (mean ± 95% confidence interval). Excluding glaciers and permanent snowfields...

Social Information Is Integrated into Value and Confidence Judgments According to Its Reliability.

Science.gov (United States)

De Martino, Benedetto; Bobadilla-Suarez, Sebastian; Nouguchi, Takao; Sharot, Tali; Love, Bradley C

2017-06-21

How much we like something, whether it be a bottle of wine or a new film, is affected by the opinions of others. However, the social information that we receive can be contradictory and vary in its reliability. Here, we tested whether the brain incorporates these statistics when judging value and confidence. Participants provided value judgments about consumer goods in the presence of online reviews. We found that participants updated their initial value and confidence judgments in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account both the uncertainty of their initial beliefs and the reliability of the social information. Activity in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex tracked the degree of belief update. Analogous to how lower-level perceptual information is integrated, we found that the human brain integrates social information according to its reliability when judging value and confidence. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The field of perceptual decision making has shown that the sensory system integrates different sources of information according to their respective reliability, as predicted by a Bayesian inference scheme. In this work, we hypothesized that a similar coding scheme is implemented by the human brain to process social signals and guide complex, value-based decisions. We provide experimental evidence that the human prefrontal cortex's activity is consistent with a Bayesian computation that integrates social information that differs in reliability and that this integration affects the neural representation of value and confidence. Copyright © 2017 De Martino et al.

Perceptual learning effect on decision and confidence thresholds.

Science.gov (United States)

Solovey, Guillermo; Shalom, Diego; Pérez-Schuster, Verónica; Sigman, Mariano

2016-10-01

Practice can enhance of perceptual sensitivity, a well-known phenomenon called perceptual learning. However, the effect of practice on subjective perception has received little attention. We approach this problem from a visual psychophysics and computational modeling perspective. In a sequence of visual search experiments, subjects significantly increased the ability to detect a "trained target". Before and after training, subjects performed two psychophysical protocols that parametrically vary the visibility of the "trained target": an attentional blink and a visual masking task. We found that confidence increased after learning only in the attentional blink task. Despite large differences in some observables and task settings, we identify common mechanisms for decision-making and confidence. Specifically, our behavioral results and computational model suggest that perceptual ability is independent of processing time, indicating that changes in early cortical representations are effective, and learning changes decision criteria to convey choice and confidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Summary of the activities of the ISAM Confidence Building Working Group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dolinar, G.M.; Batandjieva, B.

2002-01-01

During the early stages of the ISAM project confidence building was a relatively new topic in the radioactive waste disposal literature, but it was beginning to receive some attention. Although almost all safety assessment activities are intended to provide a level of confidence in the results of the assessment, considering the activities from the viewpoint of how they contributed to the decision making of various 'audiences' was relatively new. The ISAM project included the Confidence Building Working Group (CBWG) to examine the topic of Confidence Building and this paper provides a summary of the working group findings. (author)

Confidence intervals for modeling anthocyanin retention in grape pomace during nonisothermal heating.

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, D K; Dolan, K D; Yang, L

2008-01-01

Degradation of nutraceuticals in low- and intermediate-moisture foods heated at high temperature (>100 degrees C) is difficult to model because of the nonisothermal condition. Isothermal experiments above 100 degrees C are difficult to design because they require high pressure and small sample size in sealed containers. Therefore, a nonisothermal method was developed to estimate the thermal degradation kinetic parameter of nutraceuticals and determine the confidence intervals for the parameters and the predicted Y (concentration). Grape pomace at 42% moisture content (wb) was heated in sealed 202 x 214 steel cans in a steam retort at 126.7 degrees C for > 30 min. Can center temperature was measured by thermocouple and predicted using Comsol software. Thermal conductivity (k) and specific heat (C(p)) were estimated as quadratic functions of temperature using Comsol and nonlinear regression. The k and C(p) functions were then used to predict temperature inside the grape pomace during retorting. Similar heating experiments were run at different time-temperature treatments from 8 to 25 min for kinetic parameter estimation. Anthocyanin concentration in the grape pomace was measured using HPLC. Degradation rate constant (k(110 degrees C)) and activation energy (E(a)) were estimated using nonlinear regression. The thermophysical properties estimates at 100 degrees C were k = 0.501 W/m degrees C, Cp= 3600 J/kg and the kinetic parameters were k(110 degrees C)= 0.0607/min and E(a)= 65.32 kJ/mol. The 95% confidence intervals for the parameters and the confidence bands and prediction bands for anthocyanin retention were plotted. These methods are useful for thermal processing design for nutraceutical products.

Effects of maternal confidence and competence on maternal parenting stress in newborn care.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Chien-Chi; Chen, Yueh-Chih; Yeh, Yen-Po; Hsieh, Yeu-Sheng

2012-04-01

This paper is a report of a correlational study of the relations of maternal confidence and maternal competence to maternal parenting stress during newborn care. Maternal role development is a cognitive and social process influenced by cultural and family contexts and mother and child characteristics. Most knowledge about maternal role development comes from western society. However, perceptions of the maternal role in contemporary Taiwanese society may be affected by contextual and environmental factors. A prospective correlational design was used to recruit 372 postpartum Taiwanese women and their infants from well-child clinics at 16 health centres in central Taiwan. Inclusion criteria for mothers were gestational age >37 weeks, ≥18 years old, and healthy, with infants maternal confidence, maternal competence and self-perceived maternal parenting stress. After controlling for maternal parity and infant temperament, high maternal confidence and competence were associated with low maternal parenting stress. Maternal confidence influenced maternal parenting stress both directly and indirectly via maternal competence. To assist postpartum women in infant care programmes achieve positive outcomes, nurses should evaluate and bolster mothers' belief in their own abilities. Likewise, nurses should not only consider mothers' infant care skills, but also mothers' parity and infant temperament. Finally, it is crucial for nurses and researchers to recognize that infant care programmes should be tailored to mothers' specific maternal characteristics. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Method and system for assigning a confidence metric for automated determination of optic disc location

Science.gov (United States)

Karnowski, Thomas P [Knoxville, TN; Tobin, Jr., Kenneth W.; Muthusamy Govindasamy, Vijaya Priya [Knoxville, TN; Chaum, Edward [Memphis, TN

2012-07-10

A method for assigning a confidence metric for automated determination of optic disc location that includes analyzing a retinal image and determining at least two sets of coordinates locating an optic disc in the retinal image. The sets of coordinates can be determined using first and second image analysis techniques that are different from one another. An accuracy parameter can be calculated and compared to a primary risk cut-off value. A high confidence level can be assigned to the retinal image if the accuracy parameter is less than the primary risk cut-off value and a low confidence level can be assigned to the retinal image if the accuracy parameter is greater than the primary risk cut-off value. The primary risk cut-off value being selected to represent an acceptable risk of misdiagnosis of a disease having retinal manifestations by the automated technique.

Kangaroo Care Education Effects on Nurses' Knowledge and Skills Confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Almutairi, Wedad Matar; Ludington-Hoe, Susan M

2016-11-01

Less than 20% of the 996 NICUs in the United States routinely practice kangaroo care, due in part to the inadequate knowledge and skills confidence of nurses. Continuing education improves knowledge and skills acquisition, but the effects of a kangaroo care certification course on nurses' knowledge and skills confidence are unknown. A pretest-posttest quasi-experiment was conducted. The Kangaroo Care Knowledge and Skills Confidence Tool was administered to 68 RNs at a 2.5-day course about kangaroo care evidence and skills. Measures of central tendency, dispersion, and paired t tests were conducted on 57 questionnaires. The nurses' characteristics were varied. The mean posttest Knowledge score (M = 88.54, SD = 6.13) was significantly higher than the pretest score (M = 78.7, SD = 8.30), t [54] = -9.1, p = .000), as was the posttest Skills Confidence score (pretest M = 32.06, SD = 3.49; posttest M = 26.80, SD = 5.22), t [53] = -8.459, p = .000). The nurses' knowledge and skills confidence of kangaroo care improved following continuing education, suggesting a need for continuing education in this area. J Contin Educ Nurs. 2016;47(11):518-524. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

Confidence limits for contribution plots in multivariate statistical process control using bootstrap estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Babamoradi, Hamid; van den Berg, Frans; Rinnan, Åsmund

2016-02-18

In Multivariate Statistical Process Control, when a fault is expected or detected in the process, contribution plots are essential for operators and optimization engineers in identifying those process variables that were affected by or might be the cause of the fault. The traditional way of interpreting a contribution plot is to examine the largest contributing process variables as the most probable faulty ones. This might result in false readings purely due to the differences in natural variation, measurement uncertainties, etc. It is more reasonable to compare variable contributions for new process runs with historical results achieved under Normal Operating Conditions, where confidence limits for contribution plots estimated from training data are used to judge new production runs. Asymptotic methods cannot provide confidence limits for contribution plots, leaving re-sampling methods as the only option. We suggest bootstrap re-sampling to build confidence limits for all contribution plots in online PCA-based MSPC. The new strategy to estimate CLs is compared to the previously reported CLs for contribution plots. An industrial batch process dataset was used to illustrate the concepts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Confidence intervals for experiments with background and small numbers of events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruechle, W.

2003-01-01

Methods to find a confidence interval for Poisson distributed variables are illuminated, especially for the case of poor statistics. The application of 'central' and 'highest probability density' confidence intervals is compared for the case of low count-rates. A method to determine realistic estimates of the confidence intervals for Poisson distributed variables affected with background, and their ratios, is given. (orig.)

Confidence intervals for experiments with background and small numbers of events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruechle, W.

2002-07-01

Methods to find a confidence interval for Poisson distributed variables are illuminated, especially for the case of poor statistics. The application of 'central' and 'highest probability density' confidence intervals is compared for the case of low count-rates. A method to determine realistic estimates of the confidence intervals for Poisson distributed variables affected with background, and their ratios, is given. (orig.)

A National Radiation Oncology Medical Student Clerkship Survey: Didactic Curricular Components Increase Confidence in Clinical Competency

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jagadeesan, Vikrant S. [Department of Radiation and Cellular Oncology, Pritzker School of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (United States); Raleigh, David R. [Department of Radiation Oncology, School of Medicine, University of California–San Francisco, San Francisco, California (United States); Koshy, Matthew; Howard, Andrew R.; Chmura, Steven J. [Department of Radiation and Cellular Oncology, Pritzker School of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (United States); Golden, Daniel W., E-mail: dgolden@radonc.uchicago.edu [Department of Radiation and Cellular Oncology, Pritzker School of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (United States)

2014-01-01

Purpose: Students applying to radiation oncology residency programs complete 1 or more radiation oncology clerkships. This study assesses student experiences and perspectives during radiation oncology clerkships. The impact of didactic components and number of clerkship experiences in relation to confidence in clinical competency and preparation to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident are evaluated. Methods and Materials: An anonymous, Internet-based survey was sent via direct e-mail to all applicants to a single radiation oncology residency program during the 2012-2013 academic year. The survey was composed of 3 main sections including questions regarding baseline demographic information and prior radiation oncology experience, rotation experiences, and ideal clerkship curriculum content. Results: The survey response rate was 37% (70 of 188). Respondents reported 191 unique clerkship experiences. Of the respondents, 27% (19 of 70) completed at least 1 clerkship with a didactic component geared towards their level of training. Completing a clerkship with a didactic component was significantly associated with a respondent's confidence to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident (Wilcoxon rank–sum P=.03). However, the total number of clerkships completed did not correlate with confidence to pursue radiation oncology as a specialty (Spearman ρ P=.48) or confidence to function as a first year resident (Spearman ρ P=.43). Conclusions: Based on responses to this survey, rotating students perceive that the majority of radiation oncology clerkships do not have formal didactic curricula. Survey respondents who completed a clerkship with a didactic curriculum reported feeling more prepared to function as a radiation oncology resident. However, completing an increasing number of clerkships does not appear to improve confidence in the decision to pursue radiation oncology as a career or to function as a radiation oncology resident. These

A national radiation oncology medical student clerkship survey: didactic curricular components increase confidence in clinical competency.

Science.gov (United States)

Jagadeesan, Vikrant S; Raleigh, David R; Koshy, Matthew; Howard, Andrew R; Chmura, Steven J; Golden, Daniel W

2014-01-01

Students applying to radiation oncology residency programs complete 1 or more radiation oncology clerkships. This study assesses student experiences and perspectives during radiation oncology clerkships. The impact of didactic components and number of clerkship experiences in relation to confidence in clinical competency and preparation to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident are evaluated. An anonymous, Internet-based survey was sent via direct e-mail to all applicants to a single radiation oncology residency program during the 2012-2013 academic year. The survey was composed of 3 main sections including questions regarding baseline demographic information and prior radiation oncology experience, rotation experiences, and ideal clerkship curriculum content. The survey response rate was 37% (70 of 188). Respondents reported 191 unique clerkship experiences. Of the respondents, 27% (19 of 70) completed at least 1 clerkship with a didactic component geared towards their level of training. Completing a clerkship with a didactic component was significantly associated with a respondent's confidence to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident (Wilcoxon rank-sum P=.03). However, the total number of clerkships completed did not correlate with confidence to pursue radiation oncology as a specialty (Spearman ρ P=.48) or confidence to function as a first year resident (Spearman ρ P=.43). Based on responses to this survey, rotating students perceive that the majority of radiation oncology clerkships do not have formal didactic curricula. Survey respondents who completed a clerkship with a didactic curriculum reported feeling more prepared to function as a radiation oncology resident. However, completing an increasing number of clerkships does not appear to improve confidence in the decision to pursue radiation oncology as a career or to function as a radiation oncology resident. These results support further development of structured didactic

A National Radiation Oncology Medical Student Clerkship Survey: Didactic Curricular Components Increase Confidence in Clinical Competency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jagadeesan, Vikrant S.; Raleigh, David R.; Koshy, Matthew; Howard, Andrew R.; Chmura, Steven J.; Golden, Daniel W.

2014-01-01

Purpose: Students applying to radiation oncology residency programs complete 1 or more radiation oncology clerkships. This study assesses student experiences and perspectives during radiation oncology clerkships. The impact of didactic components and number of clerkship experiences in relation to confidence in clinical competency and preparation to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident are evaluated. Methods and Materials: An anonymous, Internet-based survey was sent via direct e-mail to all applicants to a single radiation oncology residency program during the 2012-2013 academic year. The survey was composed of 3 main sections including questions regarding baseline demographic information and prior radiation oncology experience, rotation experiences, and ideal clerkship curriculum content. Results: The survey response rate was 37% (70 of 188). Respondents reported 191 unique clerkship experiences. Of the respondents, 27% (19 of 70) completed at least 1 clerkship with a didactic component geared towards their level of training. Completing a clerkship with a didactic component was significantly associated with a respondent's confidence to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident (Wilcoxon rank–sum P=.03). However, the total number of clerkships completed did not correlate with confidence to pursue radiation oncology as a specialty (Spearman ρ P=.48) or confidence to function as a first year resident (Spearman ρ P=.43). Conclusions: Based on responses to this survey, rotating students perceive that the majority of radiation oncology clerkships do not have formal didactic curricula. Survey respondents who completed a clerkship with a didactic curriculum reported feeling more prepared to function as a radiation oncology resident. However, completing an increasing number of clerkships does not appear to improve confidence in the decision to pursue radiation oncology as a career or to function as a radiation oncology resident. These results

Confidence in emotion perception in point-light displays varies with the ability to perceive own emotions.

Science.gov (United States)

Lorey, Britta; Kaletsch, Morten; Pilgramm, Sebastian; Bischoff, Matthias; Kindermann, Stefan; Sauerbier, Isabell; Stark, Rudolf; Zentgraf, Karen; Munzert, Jörn

2012-01-01

One central issue in social cognitive neuroscience is that perceiving emotions in others relates to activating the same emotion in oneself. In this study we sought to examine how the ability to perceive own emotions assessed with the Toronto Alexithymia Scale related to both the ability to perceive emotions depicted in point-light displays and the confidence in these perceptions. Participants observed video scenes of human interactions, rated the depicted valence, and judged their confidence in this rating. Results showed that people with higher alexithymia scores were significantly less confident about their decisions, but did not differ from people with lower alexithymia scores in the valence of their ratings. Furthermore, no modulating effect of social context on the effect of higher alexithymia scores was found. It is concluded that the used stimuli are fit to investigate the kinematic aspect of emotion perception and possibly separate people with high and low alexithymia scores via confidence differences. However, a general difference in emotion perception was not detected in the present setting.

Confidence in emotion perception in point-light displays varies with the ability to perceive own emotions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Britta Lorey

Full Text Available One central issue in social cognitive neuroscience is that perceiving emotions in others relates to activating the same emotion in oneself. In this study we sought to examine how the ability to perceive own emotions assessed with the Toronto Alexithymia Scale related to both the ability to perceive emotions depicted in point-light displays and the confidence in these perceptions. Participants observed video scenes of human interactions, rated the depicted valence, and judged their confidence in this rating. Results showed that people with higher alexithymia scores were significantly less confident about their decisions, but did not differ from people with lower alexithymia scores in the valence of their ratings. Furthermore, no modulating effect of social context on the effect of higher alexithymia scores was found. It is concluded that the used stimuli are fit to investigate the kinematic aspect of emotion perception and possibly separate people with high and low alexithymia scores via confidence differences. However, a general difference in emotion perception was not detected in the present setting.

Promoting an "Active Start" for Young Children: Developing Competent and Confident Early Movers

Science.gov (United States)

Goodway, Jacqueline D.; Wall, Sarah; Getchell, Nancy

2009-01-01

With childhood obesity and physical inactivity at an all-time high, parents and physical educators alike must look to the early years to promote competent and confident young movers. Popular opinion believes that children are naturally active and motor skill development progresses as a normal function of getting older. However, if one looks at…

Attitude and confidence of undergraduate medical programme educators to practice and teach evidence-based healthcare: a cross-sectional survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Taryn; Esterhuizen, Tonya M; Volmink, Jimmy; Clarke, Mike

2016-06-01

Medical student educators play critical roles in evidence-based healthcare (EBHC) teaching and learning and as role models practicing EBHC. This study assessed their confidence to practice and teach EBHC, their attitude to EBHC and barriers to practicing and teaching EBHC. We conducted a cross-sectional online survey of educators of undergraduate medical students at a South African academic institution. STATA 12 was used for quantitative data analysis. Responses to open-ended questions were coded, and further interpretation done using thematic content analysis. Forty two (19%) educators from various departments responded to the invitation sent to everyone formally involved in teaching undergraduate medical students. They had high levels of knowledge and understanding of EBHC. Many had received training in teaching and learning approaches, although EBHC training received was mainly on enabling competencies. Limitations to practicing EBHC included lack of time, clinical workload, limited access to Internet and resources, knowledge and skills. One quarter of the respondents indicated that they teach EBHC. Perceived barriers to teaching EBHC reported related to students (e.g. lack of interest), context (e.g. access to databases) and educators (e.g. competing priorities). Respondents' suggestions for support included reliable Internet access, easy point-of-care access to databases and resources, increasing awareness of EBHC, building capacity to practice and facilitate learning of EBHC and a supportive community of practice. Educators play a critical role in facilitating EBHC learning not just in the classroom, but also in practice. Without adequate support, training and development, they are ill equipped to be the role models future healthcare professionals need.

Examination of the Relationship between TEOG Score Transition (from Basic to Secondary Education), Self-Confidence, Self-Efficacy and Motivation Level

Science.gov (United States)

Usta, H. Gonca

2017-01-01

The relationship between individuals' academic success, motivation and self-confidence and self-efficacy levels cannot be ignored. The aim of this study is to develop and test a theoretical model considering the relationship between academic motivation, self-confidence and self-efficacy levels in transition from middle school to high school. For…

Effects of parental divorce on marital commitment and confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitton, Sarah W; Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J

2008-10-01

Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that compared with offspring of nondivorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes toward marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their own ability to maintain a happy marriage with their spouse. However, this prediction has not been tested. In the current study, we assessed relationship commitment and relationship confidence, as well as parental divorce and retrospectively reported interparental conflict, in a sample of 265 engaged couples prior to their first marriage. Results demonstrated that women's, but not men's, parental divorce was associated with lower relationship commitment and lower relationship confidence. These effects persisted when controlling for the influence of recalled interparental conflict and premarital relationship adjustment. The current findings suggest that women whose parents divorced are more likely to enter marriage with relatively lower commitment to, and confidence in, the future of those marriages, potentially raising their risk for divorce. Copyright 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

The relative impact of cognitive anxiety and self-confidence upon sport performance: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Tim; Hardy, Lew

2003-06-01

This meta-analysis (k = 48) investigated two relationships in competitive sport: (1) state cognitive anxiety with performance and (2) state self-confidence with performance. The cognitive anxiety mean effect size was r = -0.10 (P cognitive anxiety mean effect size. The moderator variables for the cognitive anxiety-performance relationship were sex and standard of competition. The mean effect size for men (r = -0.22) was significantly greater than the mean effect size for women (r = -0.03). The mean effect size for high-standard competition (r = -0.27) was significantly greater than that for comparatively low-standard competition (r = -0.06). The significant moderator variables for the self-confidence-performance relationship were sex, standard of competition and measurement. The mean effect size for men (r = 0.29) was significantly greater than that for women (r = 0.04) and the mean effect size for high-standard competition (r = 0.33) was significantly greater than that for low-standard competition (r = 0.16). The mean effect size derived from studies employing the Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2 (r = 0.19) was significantly smaller than the mean effect size derived from studies using other measures of self-confidence (r = 0.38). Measurement issues are discussed and future research directions are offered in light of the results.

Smartphone-Based Fluorescent Diagnostic System for Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Viruses

Science.gov (United States)

Yeo, Seon-Ju; Choi, Kyunghan; Cuc, Bui Thi; Hong, Nguyen Ngoc; Bao, Duong Tuan; Ngoc, Nguyen Minh; Le, Mai Quynh; Hang, Nguyen Le Khanh; Thach, Nguyen Co; Mallik, Shyam Kumar; Kim, Hak Sung; Chong, Chom-Kyu; Choi, Hak Soo; Sung, Haan Woo; Yu, Kyoungsik; Park, Hyun

2016-01-01

Field diagnostic tools for avian influenza (AI) are indispensable for the prevention and controlled management of highly pathogenic AI-related diseases. More accurate, faster and networked on-site monitoring is demanded to detect such AI viruses with high sensitivity as well as to maintain up-to-date information about their geographical transmission. In this work, we assessed the clinical and field-level performance of a smartphone-based fluorescent diagnostic device with an efficient reflective light collection module using a coumarin-derived dendrimer-based fluorescent lateral flow immunoassay. By application of an optimized bioconjugate, a smartphone-based diagnostic device had a two-fold higher detectability as compared to that of the table-top fluorescence strip reader for three different AI subtypes (H5N3, H7N1, and H9N2). Additionally, in a clinical study of H5N1-confirmed patients, the smartphone-based diagnostic device showed a sensitivity of 96.55% (28/29) [95% confidence interval (CI): 82.24 to 99.91] and a specificity of 98.55% (68/69) (95% CI: 92.19 to 99.96). The measurement results from the distributed individual smartphones were wirelessly transmitted via short messaging service and collected by a centralized database system for further information processing and data mining. Smartphone-based diagnosis provided highly sensitive measurement results for H5N1 detection within 15 minutes. Because of its high sensitivity, portability and automatic reporting feature, the proposed device will enable agile identification of patients and efficient control of AI dissemination. PMID:26877781

Smartphone-Based Fluorescent Diagnostic System for Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Viruses.

Science.gov (United States)

Yeo, Seon-Ju; Choi, Kyunghan; Cuc, Bui Thi; Hong, Nguyen Ngoc; Bao, Duong Tuan; Ngoc, Nguyen Minh; Le, Mai Quynh; Hang, Nguyen Le Khanh; Thach, Nguyen Co; Mallik, Shyam Kumar; Kim, Hak Sung; Chong, Chom-Kyu; Choi, Hak Soo; Sung, Haan Woo; Yu, Kyoungsik; Park, Hyun

2016-01-01

Field diagnostic tools for avian influenza (AI) are indispensable for the prevention and controlled management of highly pathogenic AI-related diseases. More accurate, faster and networked on-site monitoring is demanded to detect such AI viruses with high sensitivity as well as to maintain up-to-date information about their geographical transmission. In this work, we assessed the clinical and field-level performance of a smartphone-based fluorescent diagnostic device with an efficient reflective light collection module using a coumarin-derived dendrimer-based fluorescent lateral flow immunoassay. By application of an optimized bioconjugate, a smartphone-based diagnostic device had a two-fold higher detectability as compared to that of the table-top fluorescence strip reader for three different AI subtypes (H5N3, H7N1, and H9N2). Additionally, in a clinical study of H5N1-confirmed patients, the smartphone-based diagnostic device showed a sensitivity of 96.55% (28/29) [95% confidence interval (CI): 82.24 to 99.91] and a specificity of 98.55% (68/69) (95% CI: 92.19 to 99.96). The measurement results from the distributed individual smartphones were wirelessly transmitted via short messaging service and collected by a centralized database system for further information processing and data mining. Smartphone-based diagnosis provided highly sensitive measurement results for H5N1 detection within 15 minutes. Because of its high sensitivity, portability and automatic reporting feature, the proposed device will enable agile identification of patients and efficient control of AI dissemination.

The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

2008-10-31

A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

Views That Are Shared With Others Are Expressed With Greater Confidence and Greater Fluency Independent of Any Social Influence.

Science.gov (United States)

Koriat, Asher; Adiv, Shiri; Schwarz, Norbert

2016-05-01

Research on group influence has yielded a prototypical majority effect (PME): Majority views are endorsed faster and with greater confidence than minority views, with the difference increasing with majority size. The PME was attributed to conformity pressure enhancing confidence in consensual views and causing inhibition in venturing deviant opinions. Our results, however, indicate that PME for binary choices can arise from the process underlying confidence and latency independent of social influence. PME was demonstrated for tasks and conditions that are stripped of social relevance; it was observed in within-individual analyses in contrasting the individual's more frequent and less frequent responses to the same item, and was found for the predictions of others' responses. A self-consistency model, which assumes that choice and confidence are based on the sampling of representations from a commonly shared pool of representations, yielded a PME for confidence and latency. Behavioral implications of the results are discussed. © 2015 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

An Exact Confidence Region in Multivariate Calibration

OpenAIRE

Mathew, Thomas; Kasala, Subramanyam

1994-01-01

In the multivariate calibration problem using a multivariate linear model, an exact confidence region is constructed. It is shown that the region is always nonempty and is invariant under nonsingular transformations.

The Effect of Learning Method and Confidence Level on the Ability of Interpreting Religious Poem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kinayati Djojosuroto

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This research aims to determine the effect of the learning method (expository and authentic and the level of confidence in the ability of religious poetry interpretation of the students of the third semester, majoring in the Indonesian Language and Literature Education of Universitas Negeri Manado. The method used is the quasi-experimental method with 2 x 2 factorial designs. The measurement of Y variable (ability to interpret the religious poetry uses the writing test and the level of confidence uses a questionnaire. Data analysis technique in this study is analysis of variance (ANOVA followed by two lanes and Tuckey test to look at the interaction of the group. Before the test, the hypothesis is that analysis requirements normality data test using Liliefors test and homogeneity test data using Bartlett test. The results show differences in the ability to explain the religious poetry among students who study with the expository method and the students who study with the authentic method. That is, overall, the expository method is better than the authentic method to improve the ability of the students. To improve the ability of the students to interpret the religious poetry, it is better to use the authentic method for the group that has a lower level of confidence. There is the influence of the interaction between learning method (expository and authentic and the level of confidence in the ability of religious poetry interpretation. Based on these results, it can be concluded that: First, lecturers can determine what materials and method that can be used to enhance the ability to interpret religious poetry when the level of confidence of the students has been known. Second, expository teaching methods and authentic teaching method for group of students with different level of confidence will give you different result on the ability of that group of students to interpret religious poetry as well. Third, the increase of the ability to interpret

Maternal self-confidence during the first four months postpartum and its association with anxiety and early infant regulatory problems.

Science.gov (United States)

Matthies, Lina Maria; Wallwiener, Stephanie; Müller, Mitho; Doster, Anne; Plewniok, Katharina; Feller, Sandra; Sohn, Christof; Wallwiener, Markus; Reck, Corinna

2017-11-01

Maternal self-confidence has become an essential concept in understanding early disturbances in the mother-child relationship. Recent research suggests that maternal self-confidence may be associated with maternal mental health and infant development. The current study investigated the dynamics of maternal self-confidence during the first four months postpartum and the predictive ability of maternal symptoms of depression, anxiety, and early regulatory problems in infants. Questionnaires assessing symptoms of depression (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale), anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory), and early regulatory problems (Questionnaire for crying, sleeping and feeding) were completed in a sample of 130 women at three different time points (third trimester (T1), first week postpartum (T2), and 4 months postpartum (T3). Maternal self-confidence increased significantly over time. High maternal trait anxiety and early infant regulatory problems negatively contributed to the prediction of maternal self-confidence, explaining 31.8% of the variance (R=.583, F 3,96 =15.950, pself-confidence, regulatory problems in infants, and maternal mental distress. There is an urgent need for appropriate programs to reduce maternal anxiety and to promote maternal self-confidence in order to prevent early regulatory problems in infants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Formal and Computational Properties of the Confidence Boost of Association Rules

OpenAIRE

Balcázar, José L.

2011-01-01

Some existing notions of redundancy among association rules allow for a logical-style characterization and lead to irredundant bases of absolutely minimum size. One can push the intuition of redundancy further and find an intuitive notion of interest of an association rule, in terms of its "novelty" with respect to other rules. Namely: an irredundant rule is so because its confidence is higher than what the rest of the rules would suggest; then, one can ask: how much higher? We propose to mea...

Missed nursing care and its relationship with confidence in delegation among hospital nurses.

Science.gov (United States)

Saqer, Tahani J; AbuAlRub, Raeda F

2018-04-06

To (i) identify the types and reasons for missed nursing care among Jordanian hospital nurses; (ii) identify predictors of missed nursing care based on study variables; and (iii) examine the relationship between nurses' confidence in delegation and missed nursing care. Missed nursing care is a global concern for nurses and nurse administrators. Investigating the relation between the confidence in delegation and missed nursing care might help in designing strategies that enable nurses to minimise missed care and enhance quality of services. A correlational research design was used for this study. A convenience sample of 362 hospital nurses completed the missed nursing care survey, and confidence and intent to delegate scale. The results of the study revealed that ambulating and feeding patients on time, doing mouth care and attending interdisciplinary care conferences were the most frequent types of missed care. The mean score for missed nursing care was (2.78) on a scale from 1-5. The most prevalent reasons for missed care were "labour resources, followed by material resources, and then communication". Around 45% of the variation in the perceived level of "missed nursing care" was explained by background variables and perceived reasons for missed nursing. However, the relationship between confidence in delegation and missed care was insignificant. The results of this study add to the body of international literature on most prevalent types and reasons for missed nursing care in a different cultural context. Highlighting most prevalent reasons for missed nursing care could help nurse administrators in designing responsive strategies to eliminate or reduces such reasons. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A scale for consumer confidence in the safety of food

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jonge, de J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Lans, van der I.A.; Renes, R.J.; Frewer, L.J.

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a scale to measure general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Results from exploratory and confirmatory analyses indicate that general consumer confidence in the safety of food consists of two distinct dimensions, optimism and pessimism,

Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

2012-01-01

The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zylberberg, Ariel; Roelfsema, Pieter R.; Sigman, Mariano

2014-01-01

Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments

Power, effects, confidence, and significance: an investigation of statistical practices in nursing research.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaskin, Cadeyrn J; Happell, Brenda

2014-05-01

To (a) assess the statistical power of nursing research to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes; (b) estimate the experiment-wise Type I error rate in these studies; and (c) assess the extent to which (i) a priori power analyses, (ii) effect sizes (and interpretations thereof), and (iii) confidence intervals were reported. Statistical review. Papers published in the 2011 volumes of the 10 highest ranked nursing journals, based on their 5-year impact factors. Papers were assessed for statistical power, control of experiment-wise Type I error, reporting of a priori power analyses, reporting and interpretation of effect sizes, and reporting of confidence intervals. The analyses were based on 333 papers, from which 10,337 inferential statistics were identified. The median power to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes was .40 (interquartile range [IQR]=.24-.71), .98 (IQR=.85-1.00), and 1.00 (IQR=1.00-1.00), respectively. The median experiment-wise Type I error rate was .54 (IQR=.26-.80). A priori power analyses were reported in 28% of papers. Effect sizes were routinely reported for Spearman's rank correlations (100% of papers in which this test was used), Poisson regressions (100%), odds ratios (100%), Kendall's tau correlations (100%), Pearson's correlations (99%), logistic regressions (98%), structural equation modelling/confirmatory factor analyses/path analyses (97%), and linear regressions (83%), but were reported less often for two-proportion z tests (50%), analyses of variance/analyses of covariance/multivariate analyses of variance (18%), t tests (8%), Wilcoxon's tests (8%), Chi-squared tests (8%), and Fisher's exact tests (7%), and not reported for sign tests, Friedman's tests, McNemar's tests, multi-level models, and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Effect sizes were infrequently interpreted. Confidence intervals were reported in 28% of papers. The use, reporting, and interpretation of inferential statistics in nursing research need substantial

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test at a fixed level of specificity.

Science.gov (United States)

Gengsheng Qin; Davis, Angela E; Jing, Bing-Yi

2011-06-01

For a continuous-scale diagnostic test, it is often of interest to find the range of the sensitivity of the test at the cut-off that yields a desired specificity. In this article, we first define a profile empirical likelihood ratio for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test and show that its limiting distribution is a scaled chi-square distribution. We then propose two new empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of the test at a fixed level of specificity by using the scaled chi-square distribution. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the finite sample performance of the newly proposed intervals with the existing intervals for the sensitivity in terms of coverage probability. A real example is used to illustrate the application of the recommended methods.

Assessing confidence in management adaptation approaches for climate-sensitive ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

West, J M; Julius, S H; Weaver, C P

2012-01-01

A number of options are available for adapting ecosystem management to improve resilience in the face of climatic changes. However, uncertainty exists as to the effectiveness of these options. A report prepared for the US Climate Change Science Program reviewed adaptation options for a range of federally managed systems in the United States. The report included a qualitative uncertainty analysis of conceptual approaches to adaptation derived from the review. The approaches included reducing anthropogenic stressors, protecting key ecosystem features, maintaining representation, replicating, restoring, identifying refugia and relocating organisms. The results showed that the expert teams had the greatest scientific confidence in adaptation options that reduce anthropogenic stresses. Confidence in other approaches was lower because of gaps in understanding of ecosystem function, climate change impacts on ecosystems, and management effectiveness. This letter discusses insights gained from the confidence exercise and proposes strategies for improving future assessments of confidence for management adaptations to climate change. (letter)

THE USE OF SKIT TECHNIQUE TO INCREASE STUDENTS’ SELF-CONFIDENCE IN SPEAKING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dini Deswarni

2017-12-01

The study aimed to know the use of Skit Technique to increase students’ self-confidence in speaking English. Speaking is one of important skills in English. Self-Confidence is really need to speak in English. Someone needs self-confidence to express their idea and their feelings in a foreign language especially in English. Not all of the people have good self-confidence in using English to express or to share their idea and their opinion. The aim of this study is to know whether the Skit Technique can increase self- confidence in speaking English. In other words Skit Technique can help to increase self-confidence in speaking English. The design of this research is experiment. The population of the research is 46 students at the eight grade students of MTs Darul Ihsan Duri. The sample technique is random sampling. From the data, it can be seen that Ttable < Tvalue (2.101 < 12.466. It means Ha is accepted and Skit Technique done in experiment class.

Confidence limits for Neyman type A-distributed events.

Science.gov (United States)

Morand, Josselin; Deperas-Standylo, Joanna; Urbanik, Witold; Moss, Raymond; Hachem, Sabet; Sauerwein, Wolfgang; Wojcik, Andrzej

2008-01-01

The Neyman type A distribution, a generalised, 'contagious' Poisson distribution, finds application in a number of disciplines such as biology, physics and economy. In radiation biology, it best describes the distribution of chromosomal aberrations in cells that were exposed to neutrons, alpha radiations or heavy ions. Intriguingly, no method has been developed for the calculation of confidence limits (CLs) of Neyman type A-distributed events. Here, an algorithm to calculate the 95% CL of Neyman type A-distributed events is presented. Although it has been developed in response to the requirements of radiation biology, it can find application in other fields of research. The algorithm has been implemented in a PC-based computer program that can be downloaded, free of charge, from www.pu.kielce.pl/ibiol/neta.

Confidence limits for Neyman type A-distributed events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morand, J.; Deperas-Standylo, J.; Urbanik, W.; Moss, R.; Hachem, S.; Sauerwein, W.; Wojcik, A.

2008-01-01

The Neyman type A distribution, a generalised, 'contagious' Poisson distribution, finds application in a number of disciplines such as biology, physics and economy. In radiation biology, it best describes the distribution of chromosomal aberrations in cells that were exposed to neutrons, alpha radiations or heavy ions. Intriguingly, no method has been developed for the calculation of confidence limits (CLs) of Neyman type A-distributed events. Here, an algorithm to calculate the 95% CL of Neyman type A-distributed events is presented. Although it has been developed in response to the requirements of radiation biology, it can find application in other fields of research. The algorithm has been implemented in a PC-based computer program that can be downloaded, free of charge, from www.pu.kielce.pl/ibiol/neta. (authors)

Level of confidence in venepuncture and knowledge in determining causes of blood sample haemolysis among clinical staff and phlebotomists.

Science.gov (United States)

Makhumula-Nkhoma, Nellie; Whittaker, Vicki; McSherry, Robert

2015-02-01

To investigate the association between confidence level in venepuncture and knowledge in determining causes of blood sample haemolysis among clinical staff and phlebotomists. Various collection methods are used to perform venepuncture, also called phlebotomy, the act of drawing blood from a patient using a needle. The collection method used has an impact on preanalytical blood sample haemolysis. Haemolysis is the breakdown of red blood cells, which makes the sample unsuitable. Despite available evidence on the common causes, extensive literature search showed a lack of published evidence on the association of haemolysis with staff confidence and knowledge. A quantitative primary research design using survey method. A purposive sample of 290 clinical staff and phlebotomists conducting venepuncture in one North England hospital participated in this quantitative survey. A three-section web-based questionnaire comprising demographic profile, confidence and competence levels, and knowledge sections was used to collect data in 2012. The chi-squared test for independence was used to compare the distribution of responses for categorical data. anova was used to determine mean difference in the knowledge scores of staff with different confidence levels. Almost 25% clinical staff and phlebotomists participated in the survey. There was an increase in confidence at the last venepuncture among staff of all categories. While doctors' scores were higher compared with healthcare assistants', p ≤ 0·001, nurses' were of wide range and lowest. There was no statistically significant difference (at the 5% level) in the total knowledge scores and confidence level at the last venepuncture F(2,4·690) = 1·67, p = 0·31 among staff of all categories. Evidence-based measures are required to boost staff knowledge base of preanalytical blood sample haemolysis for standardised and quality service. Monitoring and evaluation of the training, conducting and monitoring haemolysis rate are

Using an R Shiny to Enhance the Learning Experience of Confidence Intervals

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Immanuel James; Williams, Kelley Kim

2018-01-01

Many students find understanding confidence intervals difficult, especially because of the amalgamation of concepts such as confidence levels, standard error, point estimates and sample sizes. An R Shiny application was created to assist the learning process of confidence intervals using graphics and data from the US National Basketball…

Development and Evaluation of a Confidence-Weighting Computerized Adaptive Testing

Science.gov (United States)

Yen, Yung-Chin; Ho, Rong-Guey; Chen, Li-Ju; Chou, Kun-Yi; Chen, Yan-Lin

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine whether the efficiency, precision, and validity of computerized adaptive testing (CAT) could be improved by assessing confidence differences in knowledge that examinees possessed. We proposed a novel polytomous CAT model called the confidence-weighting computerized adaptive testing (CWCAT), which combined a…

Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Douglas A.

This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…

Statistical variability and confidence intervals for planar dose QA pass rates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bailey, Daniel W.; Nelms, Benjamin E.; Attwood, Kristopher; Kumaraswamy, Lalith; Podgorsak, Matthew B. [Department of Physics, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 14260 (United States) and Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Canis Lupus LLC, Merrimac, Wisconsin 53561 (United States); Department of Biostatistics, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Department of Molecular and Cellular Biophysics and Biochemistry, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States) and Department of Physiology and Biophysics, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 14214 (United States)

2011-11-15

Purpose: The most common metric for comparing measured to calculated dose, such as for pretreatment quality assurance of intensity-modulated photon fields, is a pass rate (%) generated using percent difference (%Diff), distance-to-agreement (DTA), or some combination of the two (e.g., gamma evaluation). For many dosimeters, the grid of analyzed points corresponds to an array with a low areal density of point detectors. In these cases, the pass rates for any given comparison criteria are not absolute but exhibit statistical variability that is a function, in part, on the detector sampling geometry. In this work, the authors analyze the statistics of various methods commonly used to calculate pass rates and propose methods for establishing confidence intervals for pass rates obtained with low-density arrays. Methods: Dose planes were acquired for 25 prostate and 79 head and neck intensity-modulated fields via diode array and electronic portal imaging device (EPID), and matching calculated dose planes were created via a commercial treatment planning system. Pass rates for each dose plane pair (both centered to the beam central axis) were calculated with several common comparison methods: %Diff/DTA composite analysis and gamma evaluation, using absolute dose comparison with both local and global normalization. Specialized software was designed to selectively sample the measured EPID response (very high data density) down to discrete points to simulate low-density measurements. The software was used to realign the simulated detector grid at many simulated positions with respect to the beam central axis, thereby altering the low-density sampled grid. Simulations were repeated with 100 positional iterations using a 1 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, a 2 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, and similar random detector grids. For each simulation, %/DTA composite pass rates were calculated with various %Diff/DTA criteria and for both local and global %Diff normalization

CONFIDENCE MASTERY AS THE FUNDAMENTAL TASK IN LEARNING A FOREIGN LANGUAGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

KOTEKOVÁ, Daniela

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The aim of language learning is not only to achieve an academic success carried out by a fluent speaking; mastering the grammar and vocabulary but it should also focus on the psychological comfort and the intrinsic readiness of the students to participate in their education - to receive and perform. The learners’ self-esteem plays the fundamental role in any language classroom but gaining it is the task on its own and can be quite a challenge for the teachers. How students feel is closely related to their ability to learn. Teachers’ task is thus not only to provide knowledge and information but first of all they should immerse themselves into the student’s mind and discover the best way to awake learner’s will to communicate. This paper focuses on two kinds of aspects participating on the emotional state of the learner, academic and psychological. The students of two different levels of English have answered the questionnaire, assessing their attitude, anxiety and motivation towards learning English. Each opinion has been evaluated and put into relationship with the ability to relax, understand, learn and enjoy at the same time. Their analyses have become the base of several teaching techniques that would build and encourage the students’ confidence as the main condition to start any cognitive process. If confidence is the cause or the outcome of mastering a foreign language was the question asked and answered in this work. Confidence mastery has thus played the fundamental role in the present survey.

Resident physicians' attitudes and confidence in communicating with patients: a pilot study at a Japanese university hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Ishikawa, Hirono; Eto, Masato; Kitamura, Kiyoshi; Kiuchi, Takahiro

2014-09-01

This study aimed to explore the relationships among physicians' confidence in conducting medical interviews, their attitudes toward the patient-physician relationship, and undergraduate training in communication skills among resident physicians in Japan. Participants were 63 first-year resident physicians at a university hospital in Tokyo. The Physician Confidence in the Medical Interview scale (PCMI) was constructed based on the framework of the Calgary-Cambridge Guide. Additionally, participants' attitudes toward the patient-physician relationship (Patient-Practitioner Orientation Scale; PPOS), undergraduate experience of communication skills training, and demographic characteristics were assessed through a self-reported questionnaire. The internal consistency of the PCMI and PPOS scales were adequate. As expected from the undergraduate curriculum for medical interviews in Japan, residents had relatively higher confidence in their communication skills with respect to gathering information and building the relationship, whereas less confident about sharing information and planning treatment. The PCMI was associated with a more patient-centered attitude as measured by the PPOS. These scales could be useful tools to measure physicians' confidence and attitudes in communicating with patients and to explore their changes through medical education. Residency programs should consider including systematic training and assessment in communication skills related to sharing information and planning treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reducing public communication apprehension by boosting self confidence on communication competence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eva Rachmi

2012-07-01

medical doctor should be competent in communicating with others. Some students at the medical faculty Universitas Mulawarman tend to be silent at public communication training, and this is thought to be influenced by communication anxiety. This study aimed to analyze the possibility of self-confidence on communication competence and communication skills are risk factors of communication apprehension. Methods: This study was conducted on 55 students at the medical faculty Universitas Mulawarman.  Public communication apprehension was measured using the Personal Report of Communication Apprehension (PRCA-24. Confidence in communication competence was determined by the Self Perceived Communication Competence scale (SPCC.  Communication skills were based on the instructor’s score during the communication training program. Data were analyzed by linear regression to identify dominant factors using STATA 9.0. Results: The study showed a negative association between public communication apprehension and students’ self confidence in communication competence [coefficient regression (CR =-0.13; p=0.000; 95% confidence interval (CI=-0.20; -0.52]. However, it was not related to communication skills (p=0.936. Among twelve traits of self confidence on communication competence, students who had confidence to talk to a group of strangers had lower public communication apprehension (adjusted CR=-0.13; CI=-0.21; 0.05; p=0.002. Conclusions:  Increased confidence in their communication competence will reduce the degree of public communication apprehension by students. Therefore, the faculty should provide more opportunities for students to practice public communication, in particular, talking to a group of strangers more frequently. (Health Science Indones 2010; 1: 37 - 42

Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

1993-01-01

Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to ''false alarms''. This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a ''false alarm''? Do these machines and their algorithms that we put our trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

1994-01-01

Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to ''false alarms''. This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a ''false alarm''? Do these machines and their algorithms that they put their trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

The application of deep confidence network in the problem of image recognition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chumachenko О.І.

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In order to study the concept of deep learning, in particular the substitution of multilayer perceptron on the corresponding network of deep confidence, computer simulations of the learning process to test voters was carried out. Multi-layer perceptron has been replaced by a network of deep confidence, consisting of successive limited Boltzmann machines. After training of a network of deep confidence algorithm of layer-wise training it was found that the use of networks of deep confidence greatly improves the accuracy of multilayer perceptron training by method of reverse distribution errors.

The accuracy of meta-metacognitive judgments: regulating the realism of confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Buratti, Sandra; Allwood, Carl Martin

2012-08-01

Can people improve the realism of their confidence judgments about the correctness of their episodic memory reports by deselecting the least realistic judgments? An assumption of Koriat and Goldsmith's (Psychol Rev 103:490-517, 1996) model is that confidence judgments regulate the reporting of memory reports. We tested whether this assumption generalizes to the regulation of the realism (accuracy) of confidence judgments. In two experiments, 270 adults in separate conditions answered 50 recognition and recall questions about the contents of a just-seen video. After each answer, they made confidence judgments about the answer's correctness. In Experiment 1, the participants in the recognition conditions significantly increased their absolute bias when they excluded 15 questions. In Experiment 2, the participants in the recall condition significantly improved their calibration. The results indicate that recall, more than recognition, offers valid cues for participants to increase the realism of their report. However, the effects were small with only weak support for the conclusion that people have some ability to regulate the realism in their confidence judgments.

Building metamemorial knowledge over time: insights from eye tracking about the bases of feeling-of-knowing and confidence judgments.

Science.gov (United States)

Chua, Elizabeth F; Solinger, Lisa A

2015-01-01

Metamemory processes depend on different factors across the learning and memory time-scale. In the laboratory, subjects are often asked to make prospective feeling-of-knowing (FOK) judgments about target retrievability, or are asked to make retrospective confidence judgments (RCJs) about the retrieved target. We examined distinct and shared contributors to metamemory judgments, and how they were built over time. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative memory task. At test, participants viewed a studied scene, then rated their FOK that they would remember the associated face. This was followed by a forced choice recognition test and RCJs. FOK judgments were less accurate than RCJ judgments, showing that the addition of mnemonic experience can increase metacognitive accuracy over time. However, there was also evidence that the given FOK rating influenced RCJs. Turning to eye movements, initial analyses showed that higher cue fluency was related to both higher FOKs and higher RCJs. However, further analyses revealed that the effects of the scene cue on RCJs were mediated by FOKs. Turning to the target, increased viewing time and faster viewing of the correct associate related to higher FOKs, consistent with the idea that target accessibility is a basis of FOKs. In contrast, the amount of viewing directed to the chosen face, regardless of whether it was correct, predicted higher RCJs, suggesting that choice experience is a significant contributor RCJs. We also examined covariates of the change in RCJ rating from the FOK rating, and showed that increased and faster viewing of the chosen face predicted raising one's confidence above one's FOK. Taken together these results suggest that metamemory judgments should not be thought of only as distinct subjective experiences, but complex processes that interact and evolve as new psychological bases for subjective experience become available.

[Increased self-confidence and decreased sexual discomfort after subpectoral mammaplasty].

Science.gov (United States)

Bruck, J C; Kleinschmidt, A; Ottomann, C

2011-04-01

The study objectively discusses the causal relationship between submuscular breast augmentation mammaplasty and improved aspects of quality of life. The goal was to assess a possible increase in certain aspects after undergoing cosmetic breast enlargement surgery under consideration of 4 different aspects. Between 2005 and 2006, a total of 65 women were given a standardised patient questionnaire (body image assessment questionnaire) preoperatively as well as 6 months postoperatively after undergoing cosmetic submuscular augmentation mammaplasty: 58 of these questionnaires could be evaluated successfully. All of the patients had undergone augmentation mammaplasty for the first time. The following criteria were assessed and evaluated using a point value system (0-100 points): attractiveness/self-confidence, insecurity/anxiety, emphasis placed on physical appearance, and sexual discomfort. With regard to the questions dealing with attractiveness/self-confidence, a highly significant improvement in the patient's self-assessment of said criteria after undergoing cosmetic submuscular augmentation mammaplasty as compared to their own preoperative assessment was apparent. In addition, a significantly improved level of sexual satisfaction after the medical procedure was also demonstrated. In the same fashion, the answers to the series of questions dealing with emphasis placed on physical appearance also exhibited a positive change. The only topic that exhibited next to no change was the series of questions dealing with insecurity/anxiety. Cosmetic augmentation mammaplasty is an available therapy that can increase a patient's own self-assessment of attractiveness and self-confidence in a significant way. In addition, this operation leads to a significant increase in sexual satisfaction, and because of this and the aforementioned change of emphasis placed on physical appearance, an overall improvement in certain aspects of the quality of life can be achieved. © Georg Thieme

How Is Gender Self-Confidence Related to Subjective Well-Being?

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffman, Rose Marie

2006-01-01

This study of ethnically diverse participants explored the relationship of gender self-confidence to subjective well-being. The 2 components of gender self-confidence (gender self-definition and gender self-acceptance) were assessed using the Hoffman Gender Scale (R. M. Hoffman, 1996; R. M. Hoffman, L. D. Borders, & J. A. Hattie, 2000). The…

To protect and serve: Restoring public confidence in the SAPS ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Persistent incidents of brutality, criminal behaviour and abuse of authority by members of South Africa's police agencies have serious implications for public trust and confidence in the police. A decline in trust and confidence in the police is inevitably harmful to the ability of the government to reduce crime and improve public ...

The Impact of Simulation on Pediatric Nursing Students' Knowledge, Self-Efficacy, Satisfaction, and Confidence

Science.gov (United States)

Saied, Hala

2017-01-01

The simulation technology is rapidly expanding and has been used in several nursing programs around the world and in Saudi Arabia too. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of using a simulation based scenarios on the pediatric nursing students' students' knowledge, self-efficacy, satisfaction, and confidence. This study used Bandura's…

Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland.

Science.gov (United States)

Kłopocka, Aneta Maria

2017-01-01

Consumer confidence plays an important role in households' decision-making processes. This study investigates the effects of consumer confidence on household saving and borrowing behavior that are unsatisfactorily considered in previous discussions. The questions of interest are first, whether indexes of consumer confidence have any predictive power on their own for future household saving and borrowing rates, and second, whether they contain information about future household saving and borrowing rates aside from the information contained in other available indicators. In addition to aggregate confidence indicators, their components are used to provide more precise information. Overall, the multiple linear regression analysis (OLS technique) of Polish time-series data gives positive answers to both questions. This finding supports the recommendation of combining the strengths of objective indicators (such as economic fundamentals) and subjective indicators (such as consumer confidence) to improve household financial behavior forecasts.

Nurses' knowledge of advance directives and perceived confidence in end-of-life care: a cross-sectional study in five countries.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Coffey, Alice

2016-01-28

Nurses\\' knowledge regarding advance directives may affect their administration and completion in end-of-life care. Confidence among nurses is a barrier to the provision of quality end-of-life care. This study investigated nurses\\' knowledge of advance directives and perceived confidence in end-of-life care, in Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy and the USA using a cross-sectional descriptive design (n = 1089). In all countries, older nurses and those who had more professional experience felt more confident managing patients\\' symptoms at end-of-life and more comfortable stopping preventive medications at end-of-life. Nurses in the USA reported that they have more knowledge and experience of advance directives compared with other countries. In addition, they reported the highest levels of confidence and comfort in dealing with end-of-life care. Although legislation for advance directives does not yet exist in Ireland, nurses reported high levels of confidence in end-of-life care.

A Comparative Study of Self-Confidence from the Perspectives of Quran, Ahadith and Psychology

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