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Sample records for high confidence based

  1. The Effects of Game-Based Learning on Mathematical Confidence and Performance: High Ability vs. Low Ability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ku, Oskar; Chen, Sherry Y.; Wu, Denise H.; Lao, Andrew C. C.; Chan, Tak-Wai

    2014-01-01

    Many students possess low confidence toward learning mathematics, which, in turn, may lead them to give up pursuing more mathematics knowledge. Recently, game-based learning (GBL) is regarded as a potential means in improving students' confidence. Thus, this study tried to promote students' confidence toward mathematics by using GBL. In addition,…

  2. High Confidence Software and Systems Research Needs

    Data.gov (United States)

    Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — This White Paper presents a survey of high confidence software and systems research needs. It has been prepared by the High Confidence Software and Systems...

  3. High confidence in falsely recognizing prototypical faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaio, Cristina; Reinke, Victoria; Mathews, Jeffrey; Swart, Alexandra; Wallinger, Stephen

    2018-06-01

    We applied a metacognitive approach to investigate confidence in recognition of prototypical faces. Participants were presented with sets of faces constructed digitally as deviations from prototype/base faces. Participants were then tested with a simple recognition task (Experiment 1) or a multiple-choice task (Experiment 2) for old and new items plus new prototypes, and they showed a high rate of confident false alarms to the prototypes. Confidence and accuracy relationship in this face recognition paradigm was found to be positive for standard items but negative for the prototypes; thus, it was contingent on the nature of the items used. The data have implications for lineups that employ match-to-suspect strategies.

  4. Asymptotically Honest Confidence Regions for High Dimensional

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl

    While variable selection and oracle inequalities for the estimation and prediction error have received considerable attention in the literature on high-dimensional models, very little work has been done in the area of testing and construction of confidence bands in high-dimensional models. However...... develop an oracle inequality for the conservative Lasso only assuming the existence of a certain number of moments. This is done by means of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality which in our context provides sharper bounds than Nemirovski's inequality. As opposed to van de Geer et al. (2014) we allow...

  5. Learning from the coffee shop: increasing junior high school students’ self-confidence through contextual learning based on local culture of Aceh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmini; Supriono, A.; Ridwan

    2018-01-01

    Teachers should be able to provide meaningful learning, create a fun learning, and encourage the self-confidence of students. The reality is learning in Junior High School still teacher-centered learning that results the level of self-confidence of students is low. Pre-action showed 30% of students do not have self-confidence. The research aims to improve the self-confidence of students through contextual learning in the course from the social studies of Aceh based on the local culture. This type of research is classroom action research that conducted in two cycles. The research focus is the students’ responses. The coffee shop is a source of learning social studies. Students Involved in the coffee shop interact with villagers who have made the coffee shop as social media. Students participate meetings to address issues of rural villagers. The coffee shop as a public share with characteristics of particularly subject as a gathering place for many people regardless of social strata, convey information, chat, and informal atmosphere that stimulates self-confidence.

  6. Inferring high-confidence human protein-protein interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Xueping

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As numerous experimental factors drive the acquisition, identification, and interpretation of protein-protein interactions (PPIs, aggregated assemblies of human PPI data invariably contain experiment-dependent noise. Ascertaining the reliability of PPIs collected from these diverse studies and scoring them to infer high-confidence networks is a non-trivial task. Moreover, a large number of PPIs share the same number of reported occurrences, making it impossible to distinguish the reliability of these PPIs and rank-order them. For example, for the data analyzed here, we found that the majority (>83% of currently available human PPIs have been reported only once. Results In this work, we proposed an unsupervised statistical approach to score a set of diverse, experimentally identified PPIs from nine primary databases to create subsets of high-confidence human PPI networks. We evaluated this ranking method by comparing it with other methods and assessing their ability to retrieve protein associations from a number of diverse and independent reference sets. These reference sets contain known biological data that are either directly or indirectly linked to interactions between proteins. We quantified the average effect of using ranked protein interaction data to retrieve this information and showed that, when compared to randomly ranked interaction data sets, the proposed method created a larger enrichment (~134% than either ranking based on the hypergeometric test (~109% or occurrence ranking (~46%. Conclusions From our evaluations, it was clear that ranked interactions were always of value because higher-ranked PPIs had a higher likelihood of retrieving high-confidence experimental data. Reducing the noise inherent in aggregated experimental PPIs via our ranking scheme further increased the accuracy and enrichment of PPIs derived from a number of biologically relevant data sets. These results suggest that using our high-confidence

  7. Confidence-Based Learning in Investment Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serradell-Lopez, Enric; Lara-Navarra, Pablo; Castillo-Merino, David; González-González, Inés

    The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of using multiple choice tests in subjects related to the administration and business management. To this end we used a multiple-choice test with specific questions to verify the extent of knowledge gained and the confidence and trust in the answers. The tests were performed in a group of 200 students at the bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Management. The analysis made have been implemented in one subject of the scope of investment analysis and measured the level of knowledge gained and the degree of trust and security in the responses at two different times of the course. The measurements have been taken into account different levels of difficulty in the questions asked and the time spent by students to complete the test. The results confirm that students are generally able to obtain more knowledge along the way and get increases in the degree of trust and confidence in the answers. It is confirmed as the difficulty level of the questions set a priori by the heads of the subjects are related to levels of security and confidence in the answers. It is estimated that the improvement in the skills learned is viewed favourably by businesses and are especially important for job placement of students.

  8. Protein Correlation Profiles Identify Lipid Droplet Proteins with High Confidence*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krahmer, Natalie; Hilger, Maximiliane; Kory, Nora; Wilfling, Florian; Stoehr, Gabriele; Mann, Matthias; Farese, Robert V.; Walther, Tobias C.

    2013-01-01

    Lipid droplets (LDs) are important organelles in energy metabolism and lipid storage. Their cores are composed of neutral lipids that form a hydrophobic phase and are surrounded by a phospholipid monolayer that harbors specific proteins. Most well-established LD proteins perform important functions, particularly in cellular lipid metabolism. Morphological studies show LDs in close proximity to and interacting with membrane-bound cellular organelles, including the endoplasmic reticulum, mitochondria, peroxisomes, and endosomes. Because of these close associations, it is difficult to purify LDs to homogeneity. Consequently, the confident identification of bona fide LD proteins via proteomics has been challenging. Here, we report a methodology for LD protein identification based on mass spectrometry and protein correlation profiles. Using LD purification and quantitative, high-resolution mass spectrometry, we identified LD proteins by correlating their purification profiles to those of known LD proteins. Application of the protein correlation profile strategy to LDs isolated from Drosophila S2 cells led to the identification of 111 LD proteins in a cellular LD fraction in which 1481 proteins were detected. LD localization was confirmed in a subset of identified proteins via microscopy of the expressed proteins, thereby validating the approach. Among the identified LD proteins were both well-characterized LD proteins and proteins not previously known to be localized to LDs. Our method provides a high-confidence LD proteome of Drosophila cells and a novel approach that can be applied to identify LD proteins of other cell types and tissues. PMID:23319140

  9. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movem...

  10. Exploring Self - Confidence Level of High School Students Doing Sport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurullah Emir Ekinci

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate self-confidence levels of high school students, who do sport, in the extent of their gender, sport branch (individual/team sports and aim for participating in sport (professional/amateur. 185 active high school students from Kutahya voluntarily participated for the study. In the study as data gathering tool self-confidence scale was used. In the evaluation of the data as a hypothesis test Mann Whitney U non parametric test was used. As a result self-confidence levels of participants showed significant differences according to their gender and sport branch but there was no significant difference according to aim for participating in sport.

  11. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

  12. Concerns and developmental needs of highly confident and less ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The development of this study was based on three assumptions, namely 1) that coaching efficacy (confidence specific to the task of coaching) impacts the performance of coaches, 2) that coaching efficacy is influenced by the individual's procedural and declarative knowledge on coaching, and 3) that coaches do their work ...

  13. Autism Spectrum Disorder and High Confidence Gene Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Mai, MOCHIZUKI

    2017-01-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurological developmental disorder whose mechanism isyet unclear. However, recent ASD studies, which employ exome- and genome-wide sequencing,have identified some high-confidence ASD genes. Those ASD studies have revealed that CHD8is likely associated with ASD. In this article, we highlight that CHD8 may regulate othercandidate ASD risk genes. Current research indicates that there exist some thousand autismsusceptibility candidate genes. Moreover, we sugge...

  14. Confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schinkel, Stefan; Marwan, N.; Dimigen, O.; Kurths, J.

    2009-01-01

    In the recent past, recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) has gained an increasing interest in various research areas. The complexity measures the RQA provides have been useful in describing and analysing a broad range of data. It is known to be rather robust to noise and nonstationarities. Yet, one key question in empirical research concerns the confidence bounds of measured data. In the present Letter we suggest a method for estimating the confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures. We study the applicability of the suggested method with model and real-life data.

  15. Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Stuart G.

    2013-05-01

    Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

  16. Robust, Efficient Depth Reconstruction With Hierarchical Confidence-Based Matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Li; Chen, Ke; Song, Mingli; Tao, Dacheng; Chen, Gang; Chen, Chun

    2017-07-01

    In recent years, taking photos and capturing videos with mobile devices have become increasingly popular. Emerging applications based on the depth reconstruction technique have been developed, such as Google lens blur. However, depth reconstruction is difficult due to occlusions, non-diffuse surfaces, repetitive patterns, and textureless surfaces, and it has become more difficult due to the unstable image quality and uncontrolled scene condition in the mobile setting. In this paper, we present a novel hierarchical framework with multi-view confidence-based matching for robust, efficient depth reconstruction in uncontrolled scenes. Particularly, the proposed framework combines local cost aggregation with global cost optimization in a complementary manner that increases efficiency and accuracy. A depth map is efficiently obtained in a coarse-to-fine manner by using an image pyramid. Moreover, confidence maps are computed to robustly fuse multi-view matching cues, and to constrain the stereo matching on a finer scale. The proposed framework has been evaluated with challenging indoor and outdoor scenes, and has achieved robust and efficient depth reconstruction.

  17. GENERALISED MODEL BASED CONFIDENCE INTERVALS IN TWO STAGE CLUSTER SAMPLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Ouma Onyango

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Chambers and Dorfman (2002 constructed bootstrap confidence intervals in model based estimation for finite population totals assuming that auxiliary values are available throughout a target population and that the auxiliary values are independent. They also assumed that the cluster sizes are known throughout the target population. We now extend to two stage sampling in which the cluster sizes are known only for the sampled clusters, and we therefore predict the unobserved part of the population total. Jan and Elinor (2008 have done similar work, but unlike them, we use a general model, in which the auxiliary values are not necessarily independent. We demonstrate that the asymptotic properties of our proposed estimator and its coverage rates are better than those constructed under the model assisted local polynomial regression model.

  18. Secure and Usable Bio-Passwords based on Confidence Interval

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aeyoung Kim

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The most popular user-authentication method is the password. Many authentication systems try to enhance their security by enforcing a strong password policy, and by using the password as the first factor, something you know, with the second factor being something you have. However, a strong password policy and a multi-factor authentication system can make it harder for a user to remember the password and login in. In this paper a bio-password-based scheme is proposed as a unique authentication method, which uses biometrics and confidence interval sets to enhance the security of the log-in process and make it easier as well. The method offers a user-friendly solution for creating and registering strong passwords without the user having to memorize them. Here we also show the results of our experiments which demonstrate the efficiency of this method and how it can be used to protect against a variety of malicious attacks.

  19. Data assimilation method based on the constraints of confidence region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yong; Li, Siming; Sheng, Yao; Wang, Luheng

    2018-03-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a distinguished data assimilation method that is widely used and studied in various fields including methodology and oceanography. However, due to the limited sample size or imprecise dynamics model, it is usually easy for the forecast error variance to be underestimated, which further leads to the phenomenon of filter divergence. Additionally, the assimilation results of the initial stage are poor if the initial condition settings differ greatly from the true initial state. To address these problems, the variance inflation procedure is usually adopted. In this paper, we propose a new method based on the constraints of a confidence region constructed by the observations, called EnCR, to estimate the inflation parameter of the forecast error variance of the EnKF method. In the new method, the state estimate is more robust to both the inaccurate forecast models and initial condition settings. The new method is compared with other adaptive data assimilation methods in the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 models under various model parameter settings. The simulation results show that the new method performs better than the competing methods.

  20. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  1. Confidence Testing for Knowledge-Based Global Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

    2009-01-01

    This proposal advocates the position that the use of confidence wagering (CW) during testing can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during between-subject assessments. Data revealed female students were more favorable to taking risks when making CW and less inclined toward risk aversion than their male counterparts. Student…

  2. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuel Santos

    Full Text Available Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system.

  3. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Emanuel; Faria, Daniel; Pesquita, Catia; Couto, Francisco M

    2015-01-01

    Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system.

  4. miRBase: annotating high confidence microRNAs using deep sequencing data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozomara, Ana; Griffiths-Jones, Sam

    2014-01-01

    We describe an update of the miRBase database (http://www.mirbase.org/), the primary microRNA sequence repository. The latest miRBase release (v20, June 2013) contains 24 521 microRNA loci from 206 species, processed to produce 30 424 mature microRNA products. The rate of deposition of novel microRNAs and the number of researchers involved in their discovery continue to increase, driven largely by small RNA deep sequencing experiments. In the face of these increases, and a range of microRNA annotation methods and criteria, maintaining the quality of the microRNA sequence data set is a significant challenge. Here, we describe recent developments of the miRBase database to address this issue. In particular, we describe the collation and use of deep sequencing data sets to assign levels of confidence to miRBase entries. We now provide a high confidence subset of miRBase entries, based on the pattern of mapped reads. The high confidence microRNA data set is available alongside the complete microRNA collection at http://www.mirbase.org/. We also describe embedding microRNA-specific Wikipedia pages on the miRBase website to encourage the microRNA community to contribute and share textual and functional information.

  5. Secure and Usable Bio-Passwords based on Confidence Interval

    OpenAIRE

    Aeyoung Kim; Geunshik Han; Seung-Hyun Seo

    2017-01-01

    The most popular user-authentication method is the password. Many authentication systems try to enhance their security by enforcing a strong password policy, and by using the password as the first factor, something you know, with the second factor being something you have. However, a strong password policy and a multi-factor authentication system can make it harder for a user to remember the password and login in. In this paper a bio-password-based scheme is proposed as a unique authenticatio...

  6. The Effects of a Site-Based Mentoring Program on Teacher Confidence and Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dos Santos, Kimberley G.

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation was designed to examine the effects of a site-based teacher mentoring program on teacher confidence and effectiveness in an elementary school in Florida. Based on preliminary data, there was a need for system organizational change to improve teacher confidence and performance with the district's Document Based Question (DBQ)…

  7. Measuring the Confidence of 8th Grade Taiwanese Students' Knowledge of Acids and Bases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Tsai, Chun-Yen

    2012-01-01

    The present study investigated whether gender differences were present on the confidence judgments made by 8th grade Taiwanese students on the accuracy of their responses to acid-base test items. A total of 147 (76 male, 71 female) students provided item-specific confidence judgments during a test of their knowledge of acids and bases. Using the…

  8. Feedback for reinforcement learning based brain-machine interfaces using confidence metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prins, Noeline W.; Sanchez, Justin C.; Prasad, Abhishek

    2017-06-01

    Objective. For brain-machine interfaces (BMI) to be used in activities of daily living by paralyzed individuals, the BMI should be as autonomous as possible. One of the challenges is how the feedback is extracted and utilized in the BMI. Our long-term goal is to create autonomous BMIs that can utilize an evaluative feedback from the brain to update the decoding algorithm and use it intelligently in order to adapt the decoder. In this study, we show how to extract the necessary evaluative feedback from a biologically realistic (synthetic) source, use both the quantity and the quality of the feedback, and how that feedback information can be incorporated into a reinforcement learning (RL) controller architecture to maximize its performance. Approach. Motivated by the perception-action-reward cycle (PARC) in the brain which links reward for cognitive decision making and goal-directed behavior, we used a reward-based RL architecture named Actor-Critic RL as the model. Instead of using an error signal towards building an autonomous BMI, we envision to use a reward signal from the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) which plays a key role in the linking of reward to motor behaviors. To deal with the complexity and non-stationarity of biological reward signals, we used a confidence metric which was used to indicate the degree of feedback accuracy. This confidence was added to the Actor’s weight update equation in the RL controller architecture. If the confidence was high (>0.2), the BMI decoder used this feedback to update its parameters. However, when the confidence was low, the BMI decoder ignored the feedback and did not update its parameters. The range between high confidence and low confidence was termed as the ‘ambiguous’ region. When the feedback was within this region, the BMI decoder updated its weight at a lower rate than when fully confident, which was decided by the confidence. We used two biologically realistic models to generate synthetic data for MI (Izhikevich

  9. Professional confidence and job satisfaction: an examination of counselors' perceptions in faith-based and non-faith-based drug treatment programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Doris C; Sung, Hung-En

    2014-08-01

    Understanding substance abuse counselors' professional confidence and job satisfaction is important since such confidence and satisfaction can affect the way counselors go about their jobs. Analyzing data derived from a random sample of 110 counselors from faith-based and non-faith-based treatment programs, this study examines counselors' professional confidence and job satisfaction in both faith-based and non-faith-based programs. The multivariate analyses indicate years of experience and being a certified counselor were the only significant predictors of professional confidence. There was no significant difference in perceived job satisfaction and confidence between counselors in faith-based and non-faith-based programs. A majority of counselors in both groups expressed a high level of satisfaction with their job. Job experience in drug counseling and prior experience as an abuser were perceived by counselors as important components to facilitate counseling skills. Policy implications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2013.

  10. Bootstrap-based confidence estimation in PCA and multivariate statistical process control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Babamoradi, Hamid

    be used to detect outliers in the data since the outliers can distort the bootstrap estimates. Bootstrap-based confidence limits were suggested as alternative to the asymptotic limits for control charts and contribution plots in MSPC (Paper II). The results showed that in case of the Q-statistic......Traditional/Asymptotic confidence estimation has limited applicability since it needs statistical theories to estimate the confidences, which are not available for all indicators/parameters. Furthermore, in case the theories are available for a specific indicator/parameter, the theories are based....... The goal was to improve process monitoring by improving the quality of MSPC charts and contribution plots. Bootstrapping algorithm to build confidence limits was illustrated in a case study format (Paper I). The main steps in the algorithm were discussed where a set of sensible choices (plus...

  11. Categorizing Biases in High-Confidence High-Throughput Protein-Protein Interaction Data Sets*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xueping; Ivanic, Joseph; Memišević, Vesna; Wallqvist, Anders; Reifman, Jaques

    2011-01-01

    We characterized and evaluated the functional attributes of three yeast high-confidence protein-protein interaction data sets derived from affinity purification/mass spectrometry, protein-fragment complementation assay, and yeast two-hybrid experiments. The interacting proteins retrieved from these data sets formed distinct, partially overlapping sets with different protein-protein interaction characteristics. These differences were primarily a function of the deployed experimental technologies used to recover these interactions. This affected the total coverage of interactions and was especially evident in the recovery of interactions among different functional classes of proteins. We found that the interaction data obtained by the yeast two-hybrid method was the least biased toward any particular functional characterization. In contrast, interacting proteins in the affinity purification/mass spectrometry and protein-fragment complementation assay data sets were over- and under-represented among distinct and different functional categories. We delineated how these differences affected protein complex organization in the network of interactions, in particular for strongly interacting complexes (e.g. RNA and protein synthesis) versus weak and transient interacting complexes (e.g. protein transport). We quantified methodological differences in detecting protein interactions from larger protein complexes, in the correlation of protein abundance among interacting proteins, and in their connectivity of essential proteins. In the latter case, we showed that minimizing inherent methodology biases removed many of the ambiguous conclusions about protein essentiality and protein connectivity. We used these findings to rationalize how biological insights obtained by analyzing data sets originating from different sources sometimes do not agree or may even contradict each other. An important corollary of this work was that discrepancies in biological insights did not

  12. Integration of multiple biological features yields high confidence human protein interactome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karagoz, Kubra; Sevimoglu, Tuba; Arga, Kazim Yalcin

    2016-08-21

    The biological function of a protein is usually determined by its physical interaction with other proteins. Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are identified through various experimental methods and are stored in curated databases. The noisiness of the existing PPI data is evident, and it is essential that a more reliable data is generated. Furthermore, the selection of a set of PPIs at different confidence levels might be necessary for many studies. Although different methodologies were introduced to evaluate the confidence scores for binary interactions, a highly reliable, almost complete PPI network of Homo sapiens is not proposed yet. The quality and coverage of human protein interactome need to be improved to be used in various disciplines, especially in biomedicine. In the present work, we propose an unsupervised statistical approach to assign confidence scores to PPIs of H. sapiens. To achieve this goal PPI data from six different databases were collected and a total of 295,288 non-redundant interactions between 15,950 proteins were acquired. The present scoring system included the context information that was assigned to PPIs derived from eight biological attributes. A high confidence network, which included 147,923 binary interactions between 13,213 proteins, had scores greater than the cutoff value of 0.80, for which sensitivity, specificity, and coverage were 94.5%, 80.9%, and 82.8%, respectively. We compared the present scoring method with others for evaluation. Reducing the noise inherent in experimental PPIs via our scoring scheme increased the accuracy significantly. As it was demonstrated through the assessment of process and cancer subnetworks, this study allows researchers to construct and analyze context-specific networks via valid PPI sets and one can easily achieve subnetworks around proteins of interest at a specified confidence level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Local confidence limits for IMRT and VMAT techniques: a study based on TG119 test suite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, M.; Chandroth, M.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to generate a local confidence limit (CL) for intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) techniques used at Waikato Regional Cancer Centre. This work was carried out based on the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Task Group (TG) 119 report. The AAPM TG 119 report recommends CLs as a bench mark for IMRT commissioning and delivery based on its multiple institutions planning and dosimetry comparisons. In this study the locally obtained CLs were compared to TG119 benchmarks. Furthermore, the same bench mark was used to test the capabilities and quality of the VMAT technique in our clinic. The TG 119 test suite consists of two primary and four clinical tests for evaluating the accuracy of IMRT planning and dose delivery systems. Pre defined structure sets contoured on computed tomography images were downloaded from AAPM website and were transferred to a locally designed phantom. For each test case two plans were generated using IMRT and VMAT optimisation. Dose prescriptions and planning objectives recommended by TG119 report were followed to generate the test plans in Eclipse Treatment Planning System. For each plan the point dose measurements were done using an ion chamber at high dose and low dose regions. The planar dose distribution was analysed for percentage of points passing the gamma criteria of 3 %/3 mm, for both the composite plan and individual fields of each plan. The CLs were generated based on the results from the gamma analysis and point dose measurements. For IMRT plans, the CLs obtained were (1) from point dose measurements: 2.49 % at high dose region and 2.95 % for the low dose region (2) from gamma analysis: 2.12 % for individual fields and 5.9 % for the composite plan. For VMAT plans, the CLs obtained were (1) from point dose measurements: 2.56 % at high dose region and 2.6 % for the low dose region (2) from gamma analysis: 1.46 % for individual fields and 0

  14. A high confidence, manually validated human blood plasma protein reference set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schenk, Susann; Schoenhals, Gary J; de Souza, Gustavo

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The immense diagnostic potential of human plasma has prompted great interest and effort in cataloging its contents, exemplified by the Human Proteome Organization (HUPO) Plasma Proteome Project (PPP) pilot project. Due to challenges in obtaining a reliable blood plasma protein list......-trap-Fourier transform (LTQ-FT) and a linear ion trap-Orbitrap (LTQ-Orbitrap) for mass spectrometry (MS) analysis. Both instruments allow the measurement of peptide masses in the low ppm range. Furthermore, we employed a statistical score that allows database peptide identification searching using the products of two...... consecutive stages of tandem mass spectrometry (MS3). The combination of MS3 with very high mass accuracy in the parent peptide allows peptide identification with orders of magnitude more confidence than that typically achieved. RESULTS: Herein we established a high confidence set of 697 blood plasma proteins...

  15. Confidence-based learning CME: overcoming barriers in irritable bowel syndrome with constipation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cash, Brooks; Mitchner, Natasha A; Ravyn, Dana

    2011-01-01

    Performance of health care professionals depends on both medical knowledge and the certainty with which they possess it. Conventional continuing medical education interventions assess the correctness of learners' responses but do not determine the degree of confidence with which they hold incorrect information. This study describes the use of confidence-based learning (CBL) in an activity designed to enhance learners' knowledge, confidence in their knowledge, and clinical competence with regard to constipation-predominant IBS (IBS-C), a frequently underdiagnosed and misdiagnosed condition. The online CBL activity included multiple-choice questions in 2 modules: Burden of Care (BOC; 28 questions) and Patient Scenarios (PS; 9 case-based questions). After formative assessment, targeted feedback was provided, and the learner focused on material with demonstrated knowledge and/or confidence gaps. The process was repeated until 85% of questions were answered correctly and confidently (ie, mastery was attained). Of 275 participants (24% internal medicine, 13% gastroenterology, 32% family medicine, and 31% other), 249 and 167 completed the BOC and PS modules, respectively. Among all participants, 61.8% and 98.2% achieved mastery in the BOC and PS modules, respectively. Baseline mastery levels between specialties were significantly different in the BOC module (p = 0.002); no significant differences were evident between specialties in final mastery levels. Approximately one-third of learners were confident and wrong in topics of epidemiology, defining IBS and constipation, and treatments in the first iteration. No significant difference was observed between specialties for the PS module in either the first or last iterations. Learners achieved mastery in topics pertaining to IBS-C regardless of baseline knowledge or specialty. These data indicate that CME activities employing CBL can be used to address knowledge and confidence gaps. Copyright © 2010 The Alliance for

  16. Talking about cancer with confidence: evaluation of cancer awareness training for community-based health workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimmett, Chloe; Macherianakis, Alexis; Rendell, Helen; George, Helen; Kaplan, Gwen; Kilgour, Gillian; Power, Emily

    2014-09-01

    To examine the impact of cancer awareness training for community-based health workers on confidence to talk about cancer, and knowledge of cancer risk factors and signs and symptoms. Community-based health workers from Sandwell, Birmingham and Solihull were invited to take part in one of 14 one-day training workshops. Trainees completed questionnaires at the beginning of the workshop and were followed up one month later. Confidence in talking about cancer was examined. Knowledge of cancer risk factors and signs and symptoms was assessed. Trainees were asked to rate the usefulness of the workshop, whether they would recommend it to others and whether they had put what they had learnt into practice. A total of 187 community-based health workers took part in the workshops, and 167 (89%) completed the one-month follow-up. Considerable improvements were observed in confidence to discuss cancer. For example, the proportion of participants reporting feeling 'very confident'/'fairly confident' in discussing signs and symptoms of cancer increased from 32% to 96% (p cancer at one month compared with 21% before training (p cancer signs and symptoms also increased from 2.3 (± 1.6) to 2.7 (± 1.5), (p = .02). Most trainees (83%) rated the workshop as 'very useful', and 89% said they would 'definitely' recommend the workshop. The cancer awareness training was reviewed positively by community-based health workers and led to improvements in confidence to talk about cancer, and knowledge of risk factors and warning signs of cancer. It is hoped that raising awareness among this group will help them to communicate and drive behaviour change in the at-risk populations with whom they work. © Royal Society for Public Health 2014.

  17. A Regions of Confidence Based Approach to Enhance Segmentation with Shape Priors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appia, Vikram V; Ganapathy, Balaji; Abufadel, Amer; Yezzi, Anthony; Faber, Tracy

    2010-01-18

    We propose an improved region based segmentation model with shape priors that uses labels of confidence/interest to exclude the influence of certain regions in the image that may not provide useful information for segmentation. These could be regions in the image which are expected to have weak, missing or corrupt edges or they could be regions in the image which the user is not interested in segmenting, but are part of the object being segmented. In the training datasets, along with the manual segmentations we also generate an auxiliary map indicating these regions of low confidence/interest. Since, all the training images are acquired under similar conditions, we can train our algorithm to estimate these regions as well. Based on this training we will generate a map which indicates the regions in the image that are likely to contain no useful information for segmentation. We then use a parametric model to represent the segmenting curve as a combination of shape priors obtained by representing the training data as a collection of signed distance functions. We evolve an objective energy functional to evolve the global parameters that are used to represent the curve. We vary the influence each pixel has on the evolution of these parameters based on the confidence/interest label. When we use these labels to indicate the regions with low confidence; the regions containing accurate edges will have a dominant role in the evolution of the curve and the segmentation in the low confidence regions will be approximated based on the training data. Since our model evolves global parameters, it improves the segmentation even in the regions with accurate edges. This is because we eliminate the influence of the low confidence regions which may mislead the final segmentation. Similarly when we use the labels to indicate the regions which are not of importance, we will get a better segmentation of the object in the regions we are interested in.

  18. Data on electrical energy conservation using high efficiency motors for the confidence bounds using statistical techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaikh, Muhammad Mujtaba; Memon, Abdul Jabbar; Hussain, Manzoor

    2016-09-01

    In this article, we describe details of the data used in the research paper "Confidence bounds for energy conservation in electric motors: An economical solution using statistical techniques" [1]. The data presented in this paper is intended to show benefits of high efficiency electric motors over the standard efficiency motors of similar rating in the industrial sector of Pakistan. We explain how the data was collected and then processed by means of formulas to show cost effectiveness of energy efficient motors in terms of three important parameters: annual energy saving, cost saving and payback periods. This data can be further used to construct confidence bounds for the parameters using statistical techniques as described in [1].

  19. Decision-making patterns and self-confidence in high school adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro César Antonio Luna Bernal

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed to analyse the factor structure of the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire (DMQ-II, and to examine the relationships between the factors identified and Self-confidence, in order to conceptualize the decision-making process in adolescents under the Conflict Model of Decision Making. Participants were 992 Mexican high-school students, aged between 15 and 19 years. The three factors were identified as decision-making patterns in adolescents: a Vigilance, b Hipervigilance/Procrastination and c Buck-passing. The Self-confidence showed a positive effect on Vigilance, and a negative effect on theother two patterns. Results are discussed considering the literature on decision making in adolescence.

  20. A Game-Based Virtualized Reality Approach for Simultaneous Rehabilitation of Motor Skill and Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alasdair G. Thin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Virtualized reality games offer highly interactive and engaging user experience and therefore game-based approaches (GBVR may have significant potential to enhance clinical rehabilitation practice as traditional therapeutic exercises are often repetitive and boring, reducing patient compliance. The aim of this study was to investigate if a rehabilitation training programme using GBVR could simultaneously improve both motor skill (MS and confidence (CON, as they are both important determinants of daily living and physical and social functioning. The study was performed using a nondominant hand motor deficit model in nonambidextrous healthy young adults, whereby dominant and nondominant arms acted as control and intervention conditions, respectively. GBVR training was performed using a commercially available tennis-based game. CON and MS were assessed by having each subject perform a comparable real-world motor task (RWMT before and after training. Baseline CON and MS for performing the RWMT were significantly lower for the nondominant hand and improved after GBVR training, whereas there were no changes in the dominant (control arm. These results demonstrate that by using a GBVR approach to address a MS deficit in a real-world task, improvements in both MS and CON can be facilitated and such approaches may help increase patient compliance.

  1. Blind RSSD-Based Indoor Localization with Confidence Calibration and Energy Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tengyue Zou

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Indoor localization based on wireless sensor networks (WSNs is an important field of research with numerous applications, such as elderly care, miner security, and smart buildings. In this paper, we present a localization method based on the received signal strength difference (RSSD to determine a target on a map with unknown transmission information. To increase the accuracy of localization, we propose a confidence value for each anchor node to indicate its credibility for participating in the estimation. An automatic calibration device is designed to help acquire the values. The acceleration sensor and unscented Kalman filter (UKF are also introduced to reduce the influence of measuring noise in the application. Energy control is another key point in WSN systems and may prolong the lifetime of the system. Thus, a quadtree structure is constructed to describe the region correlation between neighboring areas, and the unnecessary anchor nodes can be detected and set to sleep to save energy. The localization system is implemented on real-time Texas Instruments CC2430 and CC2431 embedded platforms, and the experimental results indicate that these mechanisms achieve a high accuracy and low energy cost.

  2. Student Perceptions of and Confidence in Self-Care Course Concepts Using Team-based Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frame, Tracy R; Gryka, Rebecca; Kiersma, Mary E; Todt, Abby L; Cailor, Stephanie M; Chen, Aleda M H

    2016-04-25

    Objective. To evaluate changes in student perceptions of and confidence in self-care concepts after completing a team-based learning (TBL) self-care course. Methods. Team-based learning was used at two universities in first professional year, semester-long self-care courses. Two instruments were created and administered before and after the semester. The instruments were designed to assess changes in student perceptions of self-care using the theory of planned behavior (TPB) domains and confidence in learning self-care concepts using Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory. Wilcoxon signed rank tests were used to evaluate pre/post changes, and Mann Whitney U tests were used to evaluate university differences. Results. Fifty-three Cedarville University and 58 Manchester University students completed both instruments (100% and 92% response rates, respectively). Student self-care perceptions with TPB decreased significantly on nine of 13 items for Cedarville and decreased for one of 13 items for Manchester. Student confidence in self-care concepts improved significantly on all questions for both universities. Conclusion. Data indicate TBL self-care courses were effective in improving student confidence about self-care concepts. Establishing students' skill sets prior to entering the profession is beneficial because pharmacists will use self-directed learning to expand their knowledge and adapt to problem-solving situations.

  3. Interactive case-based learning improves resident knowledge and confidence in reproductive endocrinology and infertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, Kara N; Tiegs, Ashley W; Uquillas, Kristen; Nachtigall, Margaret; Fino, M Elizabeth; Winkel, Abigail F; Lerner, Veronica

    2017-06-01

    Resident physicians' scores on the REI section of the CREOG exam are traditionally low, and nearly 40% of house staff nation-wide perceive their REI knowledge to be poor. We aimed to assess whether an interactive case-based group-learning curriculum would narrow the REI knowledge gap by improving understanding and retention of core REI concepts under the time constraints affecting residents. A three-hour case-based workshop was developed to address four primary CREOG objectives. A multiple-choice test was administered immediately before and after the intervention and 7 weeks post-workshop, to evaluate both knowledge and confidence. Following the intervention, residents self-reported increased confidence with counseling and treatment of PCOS, ovulation induction cycle monitoring, counseling and treatment of POI, and breaking bad news related to infertility (p < 0.05). The multiple-choice exam was re-administered 7 weeks post-intervention, and scores remained significantly improved compared to pre-workshop scores (p < 0.05). At that time, all residents either strongly agreed (91.7%) or agreed (8.3%) that the case-based interactive format was preferable to traditional lecture-based teaching. In conclusion, a nontraditional curriculum aimed at teaching core REI concepts to residents through interactive case-based learning can be successfully integrated into a residency curriculum, and significantly improves knowledge and confidence of critical concepts in REI.

  4. Label-Driven Learning Framework: Towards More Accurate Bayesian Network Classifiers through Discrimination of High-Confidence Labels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Sun

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian network classifiers (BNCs have demonstrated competitive classification accuracy in a variety of real-world applications. However, it is error-prone for BNCs to discriminate among high-confidence labels. To address this issue, we propose the label-driven learning framework, which incorporates instance-based learning and ensemble learning. For each testing instance, high-confidence labels are first selected by a generalist classifier, e.g., the tree-augmented naive Bayes (TAN classifier. Then, by focusing on these labels, conditional mutual information is redefined to more precisely measure mutual dependence between attributes, thus leading to a refined generalist with a more reasonable network structure. To enable finer discrimination, an expert classifier is tailored for each high-confidence label. Finally, the predictions of the refined generalist and the experts are aggregated. We extend TAN to LTAN (Label-driven TAN by applying the proposed framework. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that LTAN delivers superior classification accuracy to not only several state-of-the-art single-structure BNCs but also some established ensemble BNCs at the expense of reasonable computation overhead.

  5. Confidence improvement of disosal safety bydevelopement of a safety case for high-level radioactive waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baik, Min Hoon; Ko, Nak Youl; Jeong, Jong Tae; Kim, Kyung Su [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    Many countries have developed a safety case suitable to their own countries in order to improve the confidence of disposal safety in deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste as well as to develop a disposal program and obtain its license. This study introduces and summarizes the meaning, necessity, and development process of the safety case for radioactive waste disposal. The disposal safety is also discussed in various aspects of the safety case. In addition, the status of safety case development in the foreign countries is briefly introduced for Switzerland, Japan, the United States of America, Sweden, and Finland. The strategy for the safety case development that is being developed by KAERI is also briefly introduced. Based on the safety case, we analyze the efforts necessary to improve confidence in disposal safety for high-level radioactive waste. Considering domestic situations, we propose and discuss some implementing methods for the improvement of disposal safety, such as construction of a reliable information database, understanding of processes related to safety, reduction of uncertainties in safety assessment, communication with stakeholders, and ensuring justice and transparency. This study will contribute to the understanding of the safety case for deep geological disposal and to improving confidence in disposal safety through the development of the safety case in Korea for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste.

  6. Types of Feedback in Competency-Based Predoctoral Orthodontics: Effects on Students' Attitudes and Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipp, Mitchell J; Cho, Kiyoung; Kim, Han Suk

    2017-05-01

    Feedback can exert a powerful influence on learning and achievement although its effect varies. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of three types of feedback on dental students' attitudes and confidence in a competency-based course in predoctoral orthodontics at New York University College of Dentistry. In 2013-14, all 253 third-year students in a course using test-enhanced instructional methods received written feedback on formative assessments. The type of feedback varied across three groups: pass/fail grades (PF) N=77, emoticons (EM) N=90, or written comments (WC) N=86. At the end of the course, students completed surveys that included four statements addressing their attitudes toward course instruction and confidence in their abilities. The survey response rate ranged from 75% to 100% among groups. The lowest response rate (75%) was in the PF group. In attitudes toward course instruction and confidence in their abilities, the WC group trended to more positive responses than the other groups, while the PF group trended to negative responses. On two of the four statements, the trend for the WC group was significant (95% CI). In both statements concerning attitudes toward instruction, the PF group trended to negative responses that were significant (95% CI). These results support the effectiveness of descriptive written comments over pass/fail grades or emoticons in improving dental students' confidence in their abilities and their attitudes toward instruction.

  7. Spatio-Spectral Method for Estimating Classified Regions with High Confidence using MODIS Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katiyal, Anuj; Rajan, Dr K S

    2014-01-01

    In studies like change analysis, the availability of very high resolution (VHR)/high resolution (HR) imagery for a particular period and region is a challenge due to the sensor revisit times and high cost of acquisition. Therefore, most studies prefer lower resolution (LR) sensor imagery with frequent revisit times, in addition to their cost and computational advantages. Further, the classification techniques provide us a global estimate of the class accuracy, which limits its utility if the accuracy is low. In this work, we focus on the sub-classification problem of LR images and estimate regions of higher confidence than the global classification accuracy within its classified region. The spectrally classified data was mined into spatially clustered regions and further refined and processed using statistical measures to arrive at local high confidence regions (LHCRs), for every class. Rabi season MODIS data of January 2006 and 2007 was used for this study and the evaluation of LHCR was done using the APLULC 2005 classified data. For Jan-2007, the global class accuracies for water bodies (WB), forested regions (FR) and Kharif crops and barren lands (KB) were 89%, 71.7% and 71.23% respectively, while the respective LHCRs had accuracies of 96.67%, 89.4% and 80.9% covering an area of 46%, 29% and 14.5% of the initially classified areas. Though areas are reduced, LHCRs with higher accuracies help in extracting more representative class regions. Identification of such regions can facilitate in improving the classification time and processing for HR images when combined with the more frequently acquired LR imagery, isolate pure vs. mixed/impure pixels and as training samples locations for HR imagery

  8. Functional enrichment analyses and construction of functional similarity networks with high confidence function prediction by PFP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kihara Daisuke

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A new paradigm of biological investigation takes advantage of technologies that produce large high throughput datasets, including genome sequences, interactions of proteins, and gene expression. The ability of biologists to analyze and interpret such data relies on functional annotation of the included proteins, but even in highly characterized organisms many proteins can lack the functional evidence necessary to infer their biological relevance. Results Here we have applied high confidence function predictions from our automated prediction system, PFP, to three genome sequences, Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and Plasmodium falciparum (malaria. The number of annotated genes is increased by PFP to over 90% for all of the genomes. Using the large coverage of the function annotation, we introduced the functional similarity networks which represent the functional space of the proteomes. Four different functional similarity networks are constructed for each proteome, one each by considering similarity in a single Gene Ontology (GO category, i.e. Biological Process, Cellular Component, and Molecular Function, and another one by considering overall similarity with the funSim score. The functional similarity networks are shown to have higher modularity than the protein-protein interaction network. Moreover, the funSim score network is distinct from the single GO-score networks by showing a higher clustering degree exponent value and thus has a higher tendency to be hierarchical. In addition, examining function assignments to the protein-protein interaction network and local regions of genomes has identified numerous cases where subnetworks or local regions have functionally coherent proteins. These results will help interpreting interactions of proteins and gene orders in a genome. Several examples of both analyses are highlighted. Conclusion The analyses demonstrate that applying high confidence predictions from PFP

  9. Unified voxel- and tensor-based morphometry (UVTBM) using registration confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Ali R; Wang, Lei; Beg, Mirza Faisal

    2015-01-01

    Voxel-based morphometry (VBM) and tensor-based morphometry (TBM) both rely on spatial normalization to a template and yet have different requirements for the level of registration accuracy. VBM requires only global alignment of brain structures, with limited degrees of freedom in transformation, whereas TBM performs best when the registration is highly deformable and can achieve higher registration accuracy. In addition, the registration accuracy varies over the whole brain, with higher accuracy typically observed in subcortical areas and lower accuracy seen in cortical areas. Hence, even the determinant of Jacobian of registration maps is spatially varying in their accuracy, and combining these with VBM by direct multiplication introduces errors in VBM maps where the registration is inaccurate. We propose a unified approach to combining these 2 morphometry methods that is motivated by these differing requirements for registration and our interest in harnessing the advantages of both. Our novel method uses local estimates of registration confidence to determine how to weight the influence of VBM- and TBM-like approaches. Results are shown on healthy and mild Alzheimer's subjects (N = 150) investigating age and group differences, and potential of differential diagnosis is shown on a set of Alzheimer's disease (N = 34) and frontotemporal dementia (N = 30) patients compared against controls (N = 14). These show that the group differences detected by our proposed approach are more descriptive than those detected from VBM, Jacobian-modulated VBM, and TBM separately, hence leveraging the advantages of both approaches in a unified framework. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Confidence Hills Mineralogy and Chemin Results from Base of Mt. Sharp, Pahrump Hills, Gale Crater, Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavanagh, P. D.; Bish, D. L.; Blake, D. F.; Vaniman, D. T.; Morris, R. V.; Ming, D. W.; Rampe, E. B.; Achilles, C. N.; Chipera, S. J.; Treiman, A. H.; hide

    2015-01-01

    The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover Curiosity recently completed its fourth drill sampling of sediments on Mars. The Confidence Hills (CH) sample was drilled from a rock located in the Pahrump Hills region at the base of Mt. Sharp in Gale Crater. The CheMin X-ray diffractometer completed five nights of analysis on the sample, more than previously executed for a drill sample, and the data have been analyzed using Rietveld refinement and full-pattern fitting to determine quantitative mineralogy. Confidence Hills mineralogy has several important characteristics: 1) abundant hematite and lesser magnetite; 2) a 10 angstrom phyllosilicate; 3) multiple feldspars including plagioclase and alkali feldspar; 4) mafic silicates including forsterite, orthopyroxene, and two types of clinopyroxene (Ca-rich and Ca-poor), consistent with a basaltic source; and 5) minor contributions from sulfur-bearing species including jarosite.

  11. Identification of High Confidence Nuclear Forensics Signatures. Results of a Coordinated Research Project and Related Research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-08-01

    The results of a Coordinated Research Project and related research on the identification of high confidence nuclear forensic isotopic, chemical and physical data characteristics, or signatures, provides information on signatures that can help identify the origin and history of nuclear and other radioactive material encountered out of regulatory control. This research report compiles findings from investigations of materials obtained from throughout the nuclear fuel cycle to include radioactive sources. The report further provides recent results used to identify, analyse in the laboratory, predict and interpret these signatures relative to the requirements of a nuclear forensics examination. The report describes some of the controls on the incorporation and persistence of these signatures in these materials as well as their potential use in a national system of identification to include a national nuclear forensics library.

  12. The Optimal Confidence Intervals for Agricultural Products’ Price Forecasts Based on Hierarchical Historical Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Wang

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available With the levels of confidence and system complexity, interval forecasts and entropy analysis can deliver more information than point forecasts. In this paper, we take receivers’ demands as our starting point, use the trade-off model between accuracy and informativeness as the criterion to construct the optimal confidence interval, derive the theoretical formula of the optimal confidence interval and propose a practical and efficient algorithm based on entropy theory and complexity theory. In order to improve the estimation precision of the error distribution, the point prediction errors are STRATIFIED according to prices and the complexity of the system; the corresponding prediction error samples are obtained by the prices stratification; and the error distributions are estimated by the kernel function method and the stability of the system. In a stable and orderly environment for price forecasting, we obtain point prediction error samples by the weighted local region and RBF (Radial basis function neural network methods, forecast the intervals of the soybean meal and non-GMO (Genetically Modified Organism soybean continuous futures closing prices and implement unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage tests for the simulation results. The empirical results are compared from various interval evaluation indicators, different levels of noise, several target confidence levels and different point prediction methods. The analysis shows that the optimal interval construction method is better than the equal probability method and the shortest interval method and has good anti-noise ability with the reduction of system entropy; the hierarchical estimation error method can obtain higher accuracy and better interval estimation than the non-hierarchical method in a stable system.

  13. Using the confidence interval confidently.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Avijit

    2017-10-01

    Biomedical research is seldom done with entire populations but rather with samples drawn from a population. Although we work with samples, our goal is to describe and draw inferences regarding the underlying population. It is possible to use a sample statistic and estimates of error in the sample to get a fair idea of the population parameter, not as a single value, but as a range of values. This range is the confidence interval (CI) which is estimated on the basis of a desired confidence level. Calculation of the CI of a sample statistic takes the general form: CI = Point estimate ± Margin of error, where the margin of error is given by the product of a critical value (z) derived from the standard normal curve and the standard error of point estimate. Calculation of the standard error varies depending on whether the sample statistic of interest is a mean, proportion, odds ratio (OR), and so on. The factors affecting the width of the CI include the desired confidence level, the sample size and the variability in the sample. Although the 95% CI is most often used in biomedical research, a CI can be calculated for any level of confidence. A 99% CI will be wider than 95% CI for the same sample. Conflict between clinical importance and statistical significance is an important issue in biomedical research. Clinical importance is best inferred by looking at the effect size, that is how much is the actual change or difference. However, statistical significance in terms of P only suggests whether there is any difference in probability terms. Use of the CI supplements the P value by providing an estimate of actual clinical effect. Of late, clinical trials are being designed specifically as superiority, non-inferiority or equivalence studies. The conclusions from these alternative trial designs are based on CI values rather than the P value from intergroup comparison.

  14. INEMO: Distributed RF-Based Indoor Location Determination with Confidence Indicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youxian Sun

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Using radio signal strength (RSS in sensor networks localization is an attractive method since it is a cost-efficient method to provide range indication. In this paper, we present a two-tier distributed approach for RF-based indoor location determination. Our approach, namely, INEMO, provides positioning accuracy of room granularity and office cube granularity. A target can first give a room granularity request and the background anchor nodes cooperate to accomplish the positioning process. Anchors in the same room can give cube granularity if the target requires further accuracy. Fixed anchor nodes keep monitoring status of nearby anchors and local reference matching is used to support room separation. Furthermore, we utilize the RSS difference to infer the positioning confidence. The simulation results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed RF-based indoor location determination.

  15. Political factors in the development and implementation of technology-based confidence-building measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinberg, G.M.

    1989-01-01

    The second half of the 20th century has been characterized by the continuous development and improvement of weapons of mass destruction, including strategic bombers, missiles, chemical and biological agents, and of course, a variety of nuclear weapons. In contrast to the massive change in military capabilities brought about by the rapid development of science and technology, international relations is still dominated by relations between sovereign nation states and characterized by distrust and narrow interests. At the same time that scientific developments created the foundation for the nuclear arms race, however the scientific and technical community has also sought some antidotes. Technology-based confidence building measures (TBCBMS), designed to reduce international conflict and to prevent nuclear war, have been proposed by scientists from the US and the USSR. These TBCBMS have taken a number of forms such as cooperative research and development programs, joint panels and meetings of professional societies, and specially dedicated international forums. These have provided a meeting ground for the exchange of views among scientists from many different countries. In addition, a number of more direct forms of TBCBMS, such as satellite-based observation systems and IAEA nuclear safeguards, have national technical means of verification. More recently, there have been a number of proposals to apply many of these technologies to verification of conventional force reduction, arms control, and other confidence-building measures in context of regional conflicts in the Third World. An International Satellite Monitoring Agency has bee proposed to develop space-based technologies such as observation satellites to increase stability and prevent the outbreak of accidental war in regional contexts such as the Middle East

  16. Authorization of Animal Experiments Is Based on Confidence Rather than Evidence of Scientific Rigor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathues, Christina; Würbel, Hanno

    2016-01-01

    Accumulating evidence indicates high risk of bias in preclinical animal research, questioning the scientific validity and reproducibility of published research findings. Systematic reviews found low rates of reporting of measures against risks of bias in the published literature (e.g., randomization, blinding, sample size calculation) and a correlation between low reporting rates and inflated treatment effects. That most animal research undergoes peer review or ethical review would offer the possibility to detect risks of bias at an earlier stage, before the research has been conducted. For example, in Switzerland, animal experiments are licensed based on a detailed description of the study protocol and a harm–benefit analysis. We therefore screened applications for animal experiments submitted to Swiss authorities (n = 1,277) for the rates at which the use of seven basic measures against bias (allocation concealment, blinding, randomization, sample size calculation, inclusion/exclusion criteria, primary outcome variable, and statistical analysis plan) were described and compared them with the reporting rates of the same measures in a representative sub-sample of publications (n = 50) resulting from studies described in these applications. Measures against bias were described at very low rates, ranging on average from 2.4% for statistical analysis plan to 19% for primary outcome variable in applications for animal experiments, and from 0.0% for sample size calculation to 34% for statistical analysis plan in publications from these experiments. Calculating an internal validity score (IVS) based on the proportion of the seven measures against bias, we found a weak positive correlation between the IVS of applications and that of publications (Spearman’s rho = 0.34, p = 0.014), indicating that the rates of description of these measures in applications partly predict their rates of reporting in publications. These results indicate that the authorities licensing

  17. The effectiveness of collaborative problem based physics learning (CPBPL) model to improve student’s self-confidence on physics learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prahani, B. K.; Suprapto, N.; Suliyanah; Lestari, N. A.; Jauhariyah, M. N. R.; Admoko, S.; Wahyuni, S.

    2018-03-01

    In the previous research, Collaborative Problem Based Physic Learning (CPBPL) model has been developed to improve student’s science process skills, collaborative problem solving, and self-confidence on physics learning. This research is aimed to analyze the effectiveness of CPBPL model towards the improvement of student’s self-confidence on physics learning. This research implemented quasi experimental design on 140 senior high school students who were divided into 4 groups. Data collection was conducted through questionnaire, observation, and interview. Self-confidence measurement was conducted through Self-Confidence Evaluation Sheet (SCES). The data was analyzed using Wilcoxon test, n-gain, and Kruskal Wallis test. Result shows that: (1) There is a significant score improvement on student’s self-confidence on physics learning (α=5%), (2) n-gain value student’s self-confidence on physics learning is high, and (3) n-gain average student’s self-confidence on physics learning was consistent throughout all groups. It can be concluded that CPBPL model is effective to improve student’s self-confidence on physics learning.

  18. Confidence-Based Progress-Driven Self-Generated Goals for Skill Acquisition in Developmental Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung eNgo

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A reinforcement learning agent that autonomously explores its environment can utilize a curiosity drive to enable continual learning of skills, in the absence of any external rewards. We formulate curiosity-driven exploration, and eventual skill acquisition, as a selective sampling problem. Each environment setting provides the agent with a stream of instances. An instance is a sensory observation that, when queried, causes an outcome that the agent is trying to predict. After an instance is observed, a query condition, derived herein, tells whether its outcome is statistically known or unknown to the agent, based on the confidence interval of an online linear classifier. Upon encountering the first unknown instance, the agent "queries'' the environment to observe the outcome, which is expected to improve its confidence in the corresponding predictor. If the environment is in a setting where all instances are known, the agent generates a plan of actions to reach a new setting, where an unknown instance is likely to be encountered. The desired setting is a self-generated goal, and the plan of action, essentially a program to solve a problem, is a skill. The success of the plan depends on the quality of the agent's predictors, which are improved as mentioned above. For validation, this method is applied to both a simulated and real Katana robot arm in its "blocks-world'' environment. Results show that the proposed method generates sample-efficient curious exploration behavior, which exhibits developmental stages, continual learning, and skill acquisition, in an intrinsically-motivated playful agent.

  19. Web-Based Parenting Support: Development of the COPING Confident Parenting Programme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Hutchings

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Parents have the most significant impact on children’s development and the key parenting factors that promote child development and wellbeing are well known. Furthermore, many behavioural, social and emotional problems in children are associated with poor parenting practices. Parenting interventions that address parental skill deficits and teach positive parenting principles based on social learning theory are effective and are the recommended treatment for conduct disorder. Alongside the development of treatment programmes, universal parenting programmes have been developed; many present the same core parenting principles but their rationales vary from promoting children’s development to addressing common behavioural challenges and the evidence for these programmes is less well established. Most parents now have internet access and are making daily use of it, including seeking advice on parenting matters but that advice is often anecdotal and lacking evidence. In the meantime, a small number of web-based programmes, including parenting programmes have been developed and evaluated. This paper summarises the rationale for web-based universal programmes to support parents and briefly describes the history, content and a summary of the initial research on the COPING (confident parent internet guide programme developed by the authors. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research directions.

  20. Confidence as a barrier to the use of problem-based learning in veterinary undergraduate students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarlinton, Rachael E; Yon, Lisa; Klisch, Karl; Tötemeyer, Sabine; Gough, Kevin C

    2011-01-01

    Problem-based or case-based learning is a popular method of instruction in clinical degrees such as veterinary science, nursing, and medicine. It is difficult, however, for students to adapt to this learning method, and this difficulty has been well described. The present study surveyed first-year undergraduate veterinary students at the University of Nottingham about the challenges they faced upon beginning problem-based learning sessions. A surprisingly large percentage of students (36% of females and 38% of males) reported a lack of confidence in speaking in front of the other students as a concern they experienced during their first term. Conversely, only 10% of the female students (and none of the male students) reported overconfidence as a problem. This is in contrast to the perceptions of the staff members who facilitated the sessions who reported that 14% of the students exhibited underconfidence and 14% exhibited overconfidence. The difference between the female and male students' responses as well as the difference between the perceptions of students and those of facilitators is statistically significant (G-test p<.05).

  1. PCA-based bootstrap confidence interval tests for gene-disease association involving multiple SNPs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Fuzhong

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genetic association study is currently the primary vehicle for identification and characterization of disease-predisposing variant(s which usually involves multiple single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs available. However, SNP-wise association tests raise concerns over multiple testing. Haplotype-based methods have the advantage of being able to account for correlations between neighbouring SNPs, yet assuming Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE and potentially large number degrees of freedom can harm its statistical power and robustness. Approaches based on principal component analysis (PCA are preferable in this regard but their performance varies with methods of extracting principal components (PCs. Results PCA-based bootstrap confidence interval test (PCA-BCIT, which directly uses the PC scores to assess gene-disease association, was developed and evaluated for three ways of extracting PCs, i.e., cases only(CAES, controls only(COES and cases and controls combined(CES. Extraction of PCs with COES is preferred to that with CAES and CES. Performance of the test was examined via simulations as well as analyses on data of rheumatoid arthritis and heroin addiction, which maintains nominal level under null hypothesis and showed comparable performance with permutation test. Conclusions PCA-BCIT is a valid and powerful method for assessing gene-disease association involving multiple SNPs.

  2. Improvement of Roller Bearing Diagnosis with Unlabeled Data Using Cut Edge Weight Confidence Based Tritraining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Li Qin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Roller bearings are one of the most commonly used components in rotational machines. The fault diagnosis of roller bearings thus plays an important role in ensuring the safe functioning of the mechanical systems. However, in most cases of bearing fault diagnosis, there are limited number of labeled data to achieve a proper fault diagnosis. Therefore, exploiting unlabeled data plus few labeled data, this paper proposed a roller bearing fault diagnosis method based on tritraining to improve roller bearing diagnosis performance. To overcome the noise brought by wrong labeling into the classifiers training process, the cut edge weight confidence is introduced into the diagnosis framework. Besides a small trick called suspect principle is adopted to avoid overfitting problem. The proposed method is validated in two independent roller bearing fault experiment vibrational signals that both include three types of faults: inner-ring fault, outer-ring fault, and rolling element fault. The results demonstrate the desirable diagnostic performance improvement by the proposed method in the extreme situation where there is only limited number of labeled data.

  3. Approach and development strategy for an agent-based model of economic confidence.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sprigg, James A.; Pryor, Richard J.; Jorgensen, Craig Reed

    2004-08-01

    We are extending the existing features of Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool, and introducing new features to simulate the role of confidence in economic activity. The new model is built from a collection of autonomous agents that represent households, firms, and other relevant entities like financial exchanges and governmental authorities. We simultaneously model several interrelated markets, including those for labor, products, stocks, and bonds. We also model economic tradeoffs, such as decisions of households and firms regarding spending, savings, and investment. In this paper, we review some of the basic principles and model components and describe our approach and development strategy for emulating consumer, investor, and business confidence. The model of confidence is explored within the context of economic disruptions, such as those resulting from disasters or terrorist events.

  4. Confidant Relations in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Isaacs

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.

  5. Effect of spotters on state anxiety and self-confidence during maximal squatting among male high school athletes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drew Rykert

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The ideal performance state is manifested by psychological and physiological efficiency. The psychological effects of anxiety and self-confidence has been shown to alter the efficiency of performance. This study attempted to identify the state anxiety and self-confidence of high school athletes just prior to a one repetition maximum (1-RM back squat and determine if the number of spotters affects an athlete’s level of state anxiety and/or self-confidence. Male high school athletes (10th and 11th grades were randomly separated into two experimental groups who performed the 1-RM back squat (BSQ with either 1 spotter (1SG: n=52 or 3 spotters (3SG: n=54. Following a dynamic warm-up period and several progressive BSQ warm-up sets, and just prior to attempts at a 1-RM BSQ, the participants completed the revised Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2 (CSAI-2R. The CSAI-2R included the number of spotters (1 or 3 that would be present during the subsequent 1-RM BSQ attempts. The CSAI-2R is a17-question instrument with three subscales (self-confidence, somatic anxiety, and cognitive anxiety. The subscale scores were compared between the 1SG and 3SG with an independent t-test (alpha≤0.05. None of the subscales (self-confidence, somatic anxiety, and cognitive anxiety were significantly different between the 1SG and 3SG experimental groups (p>0.05. Within the parameters of this study, the number of spotters present during the execution of the 1-RM BSQ had no practical or statistical impact on self-confidence, somatic anxiety, and cognitive anxiety. Coaches and athletes could use this information in the training environment in order to make best use of personnel (assigned to spotting tasks, physical resources (ex. squat racks, and time management.

  6. LipiDex: An Integrated Software Package for High-Confidence Lipid Identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchins, Paul D; Russell, Jason D; Coon, Joshua J

    2018-04-17

    State-of-the-art proteomics software routinely quantifies thousands of peptides per experiment with minimal need for manual validation or processing of data. For the emerging field of discovery lipidomics via liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), comparably mature informatics tools do not exist. Here, we introduce LipiDex, a freely available software suite that unifies and automates all stages of lipid identification, reducing hands-on processing time from hours to minutes for even the most expansive datasets. LipiDex utilizes flexible in silico fragmentation templates and lipid-optimized MS/MS spectral matching routines to confidently identify and track hundreds of lipid species and unknown compounds from diverse sample matrices. Unique spectral and chromatographic peak purity algorithms accurately quantify co-isolation and co-elution of isobaric lipids, generating identifications that match the structural resolution afforded by the LC-MS/MS experiment. During final data filtering, ionization artifacts are removed to significantly reduce dataset redundancy. LipiDex interfaces with several LC-MS/MS software packages, enabling robust lipid identification to be readily incorporated into pre-existing data workflows. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Speech-Language Pathologists' Knowledge of Genetics: Perceived Confidence, Attitudes, Knowledge Acquisition and Practice-Based Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramontana, G. Michael; Blood, Ingrid M.; Blood, Gordon W.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine (a) the general knowledge bases demonstrated by school-based speech-language pathologists (SLPs) in the area of genetics, (b) the confidence levels of SLPs in providing services to children and their families with genetic disorders/syndromes, (c) the attitudes of SLPs regarding genetics and communication…

  8. Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth: retention of knowledge, skills, and confidence nine months after obstetric simulation-based training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelissen, E.J.T.; Ersdal, H.; Mduma, E.; Evjen-Olsen, B.; Broerse, J.E.W.; van Roosmalen, J.; Stekelenburg, J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: It is important to know the decay of knowledge, skills, and confidence over time to provide evidence-based guidance on timing of follow-up training. Studies addressing retention of simulation-based education reveal mixed results. The aim of this study was to measure the level of

  9. Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth : retention of knowledge, skills, and confidence nine months after obstetric simulation-based training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelissen, Ellen; Ersdal, Hege; Mduma, Estomih; Evjen-Olsen, Bjorg; Broerse, Jacqueline; van Roosmalen, Jos; Stekelenburg, Jelle

    2015-01-01

    Background: It is important to know the decay of knowledge, skills, and confidence over time to provide evidence-based guidance on timing of follow-up training. Studies addressing retention of simulation-based education reveal mixed results. The aim of this study was to measure the level of

  10. How to confidently teach EBM on foot: development and evaluation of a web-based e-learning course

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weberschock, Tobias; Sorinola, Olanrewaju; Thangaratinam, Shakila; Oude Rengerink, Katrien; Arvanitis, Theodoros N.; Khan, Khalid S.; Weinbrenner, Susanne; Horvath, Andrea R.; Onody, Rita; Zanrei, Gianni; Kunz, Regina; Suter, Katja; Walczac, Jacek; Burnand, Bernard; Arditi, Chantal; Zamora, Javier; Mol, Ben W. J.; Barnfield, Gemma; Gee, Harry; Kaleta, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Scarcity of well-trained clinical tutors is a key constraint in integrating teaching of evidence-based medicine (EBM) into clinical activities. We developed a web-based educational course for clinical trainers to confidently teach EBM principles in everyday practice. Its e-learning modules defined

  11. Procedural confidence in hospital based practitioners: implications for the training and practice of doctors at all grades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsagkaraki Petroula A

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Medical doctors routinely undertake a number of practical procedures and these should be performed competently. The UK Postgraduate Medical Education and Training Board (PMETB curriculum lists the procedures trainees should be competent in. We aimed to describe medical practitioner's confidence in their procedural skills, and to define which practical procedures are important in current medical practice. Methods A cross sectional observational study was performed measuring procedural confidence in 181 hospital practitioners at all grades from 2 centres in East Anglia, England. Results Both trainees and consultants provide significant service provision. SpR level doctors perform the widest range and the highest median number of procedures per year. Most consultants perform few if any procedures, however some perform a narrow range at high volume. Cumulative confidence for the procedures tested peaks in the SpR grade. Five key procedures (central line insertion, lumbar puncture, pleural aspiration, ascitic aspiration, and intercostal drain insertion are the most commonly performed, are seen as important generic skills, and correspond to the total number of procedures for which confidence can be maintained. Key determinants of confidence are gender, number of procedures performed in the previous year and total number of procedures performed. Conclusion The highest volume of service requirement is for six procedures. The procedural confidence is dependent upon gender, number of procedures performed in the previous year and total number of procedures performed. This has implications for those designing the training curriculum and with regards the move to shorten the duration of training.

  12. Individuals with high obsessive-compulsive tendencies or undermined confidence rely more on external proxies to access their internal states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongming; Wang, Mengyun; Miao, Xiaocui; Li, Yijuan; Hitchman, Glenn; Yuan, Zhen

    2017-03-01

    The Seeking Proxies for Internal States (SPIS) hypothesis predicts that obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is associated with a deficit in subjective convictions, which may lead to a reliance on external substitutes for the perceptions of an individual's internal states. Two well-designed studies were performed for the present work that adopted a false bio-feedback procedure in a muscle tension task to examine the SPIS hypothesis. The false bio-feedback paradigm was used to investigate our hypothesis. NeXus-10 Mark II hardware and V2011 BioTrace + software (Mind Media B.V., Herten, Netherlands) were utilized to measure the muscle tension of the flexor carpiulnaris muscle, which characterized the target's internal state. In addition, false EMG changes were recorded and displayed on a computer monitor and were considered external proxies. Study 1 demonstrated that the participants with high obsessive-compulsive (OC) tendencies were more affected by the false bio-feedback and exhibited lower confidence in their judgments regarding their muscle tension compared with the participants with low OC tendencies. These findings indicate that subjects with high OC tendencies were more influenced by self-perception effects. In contrast, the subjects in the undermined confidence group in Study 2 were more easily influenced by the false bio-feedback compared with the control group, which suggests that the subjects in the undermined confidence group were more affected by self-perception effects. We did not combine the undermined confidence with OC tendencies or OCD symptoms in our paradigm to investigate their joint effects on self-perception. Our findings provide further evidence that supports the SPIS hypothesis, which indicates that OC tendencies and the confidence in an individual's recognition of internal states appear to have similar effects on the assessment of internal states and reliance on proxies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Influence of a School-Based Cooking Course on Students' Food Preferences, Cooking Skills, and Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahr, Rola; Sibeko, Lindiwe

    2017-03-01

    A quasi-experimental study was conducted to evaluate the influence of Project CHEF, a hands-on cooking and tasting program offered in Vancouver public schools, on students' food preferences, cooking skills, and confidence. Grade 4 and 5 students in an intervention group (n = 68) and a comparison group (n = 32) completed a survey at baseline and 2 to 3 weeks later. Students who participated in Project CHEF reported an increased familiarity and preference for the foods introduced through the program. This was statistically significant (P ≤ 0.05) for broccoli, swiss chard, carrots, and quinoa. A higher percentage of students exposed to Project CHEF reported a statistically significant increase (P ≤ 0.05) in: cutting vegetables and fruit (97% vs 81%), measuring ingredients (67% vs 44%), using a knife (94% vs 82%), and making a balanced meal on their own (69% vs 34%). They also reported a statistically significant increase (P ≤ 0.05) in confidence making the recipes introduced in the program: fruit salad (85% vs 81%), minestrone soup (25% vs 10%), and vegetable tofu stir fry (39% vs 26%). Involving students in hands-on cooking and tasting programs can increase their preferences for unpopular or unfamiliar foods and provide them with the skills and cooking confidence they need to prepare balanced meals.

  14. A NEW METHOD FOR CONSTRUCTING CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR CPM BASED ON FUZZY DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahram Sadeghpour Gildeh

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A measurement control system ensures that measuring equipment and measurement processes are fit for their intended use and its importance in achieving product quality objectives. In most real life applications, the observations are fuzzy. In some cases specification limits (SLs are not precise numbers and they are expressed in fuzzy terms, s o that the classical capability indices could not be applied. In this paper we obtain 100(1 - α% fuzzy confidence interval for C pm fuzzy process capability index, where instead of precise quality we have two membership functions for specification limits.

  15. Improving Nurses' Peripheral Intravenous Catheter Insertion Knowledge, Confidence, and Skills Using a Simulation-Based Blended Learning Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keleekai, Nowai L.; Schuster, Catherine A.; Murray, Connie L.; King, Mary Anne; Stahl, Brian R.; Labrozzi, Laura J.; Gallucci, Susan; LeClair, Matthew W.; Glover, Kevin R.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Peripheral intravenous catheter (PIVC) insertion is one of the most common invasive procedures performed in a hospital, but most nurses receive little formal training in this area. Blended PIVC insertion training programs that incorporate deliberate simulated practice have the potential to improve clinical practice and patient care. Methods The study was a randomized, wait-list control group with crossover using nurses on three medical/surgical units. Baseline PIVC knowledge, confidence, and skills assessments were completed for both groups. The intervention group then received a 2-hour PIVC online course, followed by an 8-hour live training course using a synergistic mix of three simulation tools. Both groups were then reassessed. After crossover, the wait-list group received the same intervention and both groups were reassessed. Results At baseline, both groups were similar for knowledge, confidence, and skills. Compared with the wait-list group, the intervention group had significantly higher scores for knowledge, confidence, and skills upon completing the training program. After crossover, the wait-list group had similarly higher scores for knowledge, confidence, and skills than the intervention group. Between the immediate preintervention and postintervention periods, the intervention group improved scores for knowledge by 31%, skills by 24%, and decreased confidence by 0.5%, whereas the wait-list group improved scores for knowledge by 28%, confidence by 16%, and skills by 15%. Conclusions Results demonstrate significant improvements in nurses' knowledge, confidence, and skills with the use of a simulation-based blended learning program for PIVC insertion. Transferability of these findings from a simulated environment into clinical practice should be further explored. PMID:27504890

  16. Predictors of Willingness to Read in English: Testing a Model Based on Possible Selves and Self-Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khajavy, Gholam Hassan; Ghonsooly, Behzad

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the present study is twofold. First, it tests a model of willingness to read (WTR) based on L2 motivation and communication confidence (communication anxiety and perceived communicative competence). Second, it applies the recent theory of L2 motivation proposed by Dörnyei [2005. "The Psychology of Language Learner: Individual…

  17. Integration testing through reusing representative unit test cases for high-confidence medical software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Youngsul; Choi, Yunja; Lee, Woo Jin

    2013-06-01

    As medical software is getting larger-sized, complex, and connected with other devices, finding faults in integrated software modules gets more difficult and time consuming. Existing integration testing typically takes a black-box approach, which treats the target software as a black box and selects test cases without considering internal behavior of each software module. Though it could be cost-effective, this black-box approach cannot thoroughly test interaction behavior among integrated modules and might leave critical faults undetected, which should not happen in safety-critical systems such as medical software. This work anticipates that information on internal behavior is necessary even for integration testing to define thorough test cases for critical software and proposes a new integration testing method by reusing test cases used for unit testing. The goal is to provide a cost-effective method to detect subtle interaction faults at the integration testing phase by reusing the knowledge obtained from unit testing phase. The suggested approach notes that the test cases for the unit testing include knowledge on internal behavior of each unit and extracts test cases for the integration testing from the test cases for the unit testing for a given test criteria. The extracted representative test cases are connected with functions under test using the state domain and a single test sequence to cover the test cases is produced. By means of reusing unit test cases, the tester has effective test cases to examine diverse execution paths and find interaction faults without analyzing complex modules. The produced test sequence can have test coverage as high as the unit testing coverage and its length is close to the length of optimal test sequences. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A Hierarchical Method for Transient Stability Prediction of Power Systems Using the Confidence of a SVM-Based Ensemble Classifier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanzhen Zhou

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Machine learning techniques have been widely used in transient stability prediction of power systems. When using the post-fault dynamic responses, it is difficult to draw a definite conclusion about how long the duration of response data used should be in order to balance the accuracy and speed. Besides, previous studies have the problem of lacking consideration for the confidence level. To solve these problems, a hierarchical method for transient stability prediction based on the confidence of ensemble classifier using multiple support vector machines (SVMs is proposed. Firstly, multiple datasets are generated by bootstrap sampling, then features are randomly picked up to compress the datasets. Secondly, the confidence indices are defined and multiple SVMs are built based on these generated datasets. By synthesizing the probabilistic outputs of multiple SVMs, the prediction results and confidence of the ensemble classifier will be obtained. Finally, different ensemble classifiers with different response times are built to construct different layers of the proposed hierarchical scheme. The simulation results show that the proposed hierarchical method can balance the accuracy and rapidity of the transient stability prediction. Moreover, the hierarchical method can reduce the misjudgments of unstable instances and cooperate with the time domain simulation to insure the security and stability of power systems.

  19. Speech-language pathologists' knowledge of genetics: perceived confidence, attitudes, knowledge acquisition and practice-based variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramontana, G Michael; Blood, Ingrid M; Blood, Gordon W

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine (a) the general knowledge bases demonstrated by school-based speech-language pathologists (SLPs) in the area of genetics, (b) the confidence levels of SLPs in providing services to children and their families with genetic disorders/syndromes, (c) the attitudes of SLPs regarding genetics and communication disorders, (d) the primary sources used by SLPs to learn about genetic disorders/syndromes, and (e) the association between general knowledge, confidence, attitudes, the number of years of experience working as an SLP, and the number of children currently provided services with genetic disorders/syndromes on SLPs' caseloads. Survey data from a nationwide sample of 533 SLPs was analyzed. Results showed SLPs earned a median knowledge score about genetics of 66% correct responses. Their mean confidence and attitude ratings were in the "unsure" categories while they reported they learned about genetics from three main sources, (a) self-study via web and internet-based searches, (b) on-the-job training and (c) popular press magazines and newspapers. Analyses revealed that Confidence summary scores, Attitude Summary scores, the number of children with genetic disorders/syndromes on SLPs' caseloads are positively associated with the ratings of participants with the highest Knowledge scores. Readers will be able to (a) explain the important links between developmental and communication disabilities and genetics, (b) describe the associations between knowledge about genetics and confidence, attitudes, and the number of children with genetic disorders/syndromes on their caseloads, and (c) outline the clinical and theoretical implications of the results from this study. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth: retention of knowledge, skills, and confidence nine months after obstetric simulation-based training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelissen, Ellen; Ersdal, Hege; Mduma, Estomih; Evjen-Olsen, Bjørg; Broerse, Jacqueline; van Roosmalen, Jos; Stekelenburg, Jelle

    2015-08-25

    It is important to know the decay of knowledge, skills, and confidence over time to provide evidence-based guidance on timing of follow-up training. Studies addressing retention of simulation-based education reveal mixed results. The aim of this study was to measure the level of knowledge, skills, and confidence before, immediately after, and nine months after simulation-based training in obstetric care in order to understand the impact of training on these components. An educational intervention study was carried out in 2012 in a rural referral hospital in Northern Tanzania. Eighty-nine healthcare workers of different cadres were trained in "Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth", which addresses basic delivery skills including active management of third stage of labour and management of postpartum haemorrhage (PPH). Knowledge, skills, and confidence were tested before, immediately after, and nine months after training amongst 38 healthcare workers. Knowledge was tested by completing a written 26-item multiple-choice questionnaire. Skills were tested in two simulated scenarios "basic delivery" and "management of PPH". Confidence in active management of third stage of labour, management of PPH, determination of completeness of the placenta, bimanual uterine compression, and accessing advanced care was self-assessed using a written 5-item questionnaire. Mean knowledge scores increased immediately after training from 70 % to 77 %, but decreased close to pre-training levels (72 %) at nine-month follow-up (p = 0.386) (all p-levels are compared to pre-training). The mean score in basic delivery skills increased after training from 43 % to 51 %, and was 49 % after nine months (p = 0.165). Mean scores of management of PPH increased from 39 % to 51 % and were sustained at 50 % at nine months (p = 0.003). Bimanual uterine compression skills increased from 19 % before, to 43 % immediately after, to 48 % nine months after training (p = 0

  1. Fragility estimation for seismically isolated nuclear structures by high confidence low probability of failure values and bi-linear regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carausu, A.

    1996-01-01

    A method for the fragility estimation of seismically isolated nuclear power plant structure is proposed. The relationship between the ground motion intensity parameter (e.g. peak ground velocity or peak ground acceleration) and the response of isolated structures is expressed in terms of a bi-linear regression line, whose coefficients are estimated by the least-square method in terms of available data on seismic input and structural response. The notion of high confidence low probability of failure (HCLPF) value is also used for deriving compound fragility curves for coupled subsystems. (orig.)

  2. Machine learning classification with confidence: application of transductive conformal predictors to MRI-based diagnostic and prognostic markers in depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nouretdinov, Ilia; Costafreda, Sergi G; Gammerman, Alexander; Chervonenkis, Alexey; Vovk, Vladimir; Vapnik, Vladimir; Fu, Cynthia H Y

    2011-05-15

    There is rapidly accumulating evidence that the application of machine learning classification to neuroimaging measurements may be valuable for the development of diagnostic and prognostic prediction tools in psychiatry. However, current methods do not produce a measure of the reliability of the predictions. Knowing the risk of the error associated with a given prediction is essential for the development of neuroimaging-based clinical tools. We propose a general probabilistic classification method to produce measures of confidence for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. We describe the application of transductive conformal predictor (TCP) to MRI images. TCP generates the most likely prediction and a valid measure of confidence, as well as the set of all possible predictions for a given confidence level. We present the theoretical motivation for TCP, and we have applied TCP to structural and functional MRI data in patients and healthy controls to investigate diagnostic and prognostic prediction in depression. We verify that TCP predictions are as accurate as those obtained with more standard machine learning methods, such as support vector machine, while providing the additional benefit of a valid measure of confidence for each prediction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Nurses' Knowledge, Perception, and Self-Confidence Regarding Evidence-Based Antibiotic Use in the Long-Term Care Setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hale, LaDonna S; Votaw, Lindsey L; Mayer, Janell E; Sobota, Kristen F

    2017-11-01

    Describe knowledge, perceptions, and self-confidence of nurses in the long-term care setting before and after online antibiotic stewardship education, and assess effectiveness and satisfaction with the education. Pre-/postsurvey. Three long-term care facilities, Topeka, Kansas. Convenience sample of 140 licensed practical and registered nurses. Nurses viewed a 12-minute online module developed by long-term care consultant pharmacists. The module discussed risks of antibiotic use and the Loeb minimum criteria for initiation of antibiotics in long-term care residents for urinary and respiratory tract infections and explored other conditions contributing to suspicion of these infections. Knowledge, perceptions, and self-confidence were measured using a 5-point Likert-scale survey modified from the Minnesota Department of Health taken before and after the module. Response rate was 45% (63/140) pre-education and 41% (57/140) post-education. Nurses had high baseline self-confidence (mean 4.2 to 4.5/5.0) and pre/post scores did not change significantly. Statistically significant improvements in knowledge and perceptions were seen in 15 of the 33 indices related to assumptions regarding antibiotic use, risks, and indicators of urinary and respiratory bacterial infections. Nurses rated the education as high quality (95%), applicable to practice (95%), and felt very likely to change practice (91%). Although baseline self-confidence was high, key misperceptions were identified, indicating that nurses may not be aware of their knowledge deficits or misperceptions. This low-cost, 12-minute, online education was highly valued and effectively improved nurses' knowledge and perceptions.

  4. Assessment of risk to wildlife from ionising radiation: can initial screening tiers be used with a high level of confidence?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beresford, N A; Barnett, C L; Hosseini, A; Brown, J E; Cailes, C; Copplestone, D; Beaugelin-Seiller, K

    2010-01-01

    A number of models are being used to assess the potential environmental impact of releases of radioactivity. These often use a tiered assessment structure whose first tier is designed to be highly conservative and simple to use. An aim of using this initial tier is to identify sites of negligible concern and to remove them from further consideration with a high degree of confidence. In this paper we compare the screening assessment outputs of three freely available models. The outputs of these models varied considerably in terms of estimated risk quotient (RQ) and the radionuclide-organism combinations identified as being the most limiting. A number of factors are identified as contributing to this variability: values of transfer parameters (concentration ratios and K d ) used; organisms considered; different input options and how these are utilised in the assessment; assumptions as regards secular equilibrium; geometries and exposure scenarios. This large variation in RQ values between models means that the level of confidence required by users is not achieved. We recommend that the factors contributing to the variation in screening assessments be subjected to further investigation so that they can be more fully understood and assessors (and those reviewing assessment outputs) can better justify and evaluate the results obtained.

  5. Identification of high-confidence RNA regulatory elements by combinatorial classification of RNA-protein binding sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang Eric; Xiao, Mu; Shi, Binbin; Yang, Yu-Cheng T; Wang, Dong; Wang, Fei; Marcia, Marco; Lu, Zhi John

    2017-09-08

    Crosslinking immunoprecipitation sequencing (CLIP-seq) technologies have enabled researchers to characterize transcriptome-wide binding sites of RNA-binding protein (RBP) with high resolution. We apply a soft-clustering method, RBPgroup, to various CLIP-seq datasets to group together RBPs that specifically bind the same RNA sites. Such combinatorial clustering of RBPs helps interpret CLIP-seq data and suggests functional RNA regulatory elements. Furthermore, we validate two RBP-RBP interactions in cell lines. Our approach links proteins and RNA motifs known to possess similar biochemical and cellular properties and can, when used in conjunction with additional experimental data, identify high-confidence RBP groups and their associated RNA regulatory elements.

  6. A Threat- and Efficacy-Based Framework to Understand Confidence in Vaccines among the Public Health Workforce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lainie Rutkow

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM is an established threat- and efficacy-based behavioral framework for understanding health behaviors in the face of uncertain risk. A growing body of research has applied this model to understand these behaviors among the public health workforce. In this manuscript, we aim to explore the application of this framework to the public health workforce, with a novel focus on their confidence in vaccines and perceptions of vaccine injury compensation mechanisms. We characterize specific connections between EPPM’s threat and efficacy dimensions and relevant vaccine policy frameworks and highlight how these connections can usefully inform training interventions for public health workers to enhance their confidence in these vaccine policy measures.

  7. A Novel Multiplayer Screen-Based Simulation Experience for African Learners Improved Confidence in Management of Postpartum Hemorrhage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey M. Taekman

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available IntroductionPostpartum hemorrhage (PPH remains a global challenge, affecting thirteen million women each year. In addition, PPH is a leading cause of maternal mortality in Asia and Africa. In the U.S.A., care of critically ill patients is often practiced using mannequin-based simulation. Mannequin-based simulation presents challenges in global health, particularly in low- or middle-income countries. We developed a novel multiplayer screen-based simulation in a virtual world enabling the practice of team coordination with PPH. We used this simulation with learners in Mulago, Uganda. We hypothesized that a multiplayer screen-based simulation experience would increase learner confidence in their ability to manage PPH.MethodsThe study design was a simple pre- and a post-intervention survey. Forty-eight interprofessional subjects participated in one of nine 1-h simulation sessions using the PPH software. A fifteen-question self-assessment administered before and after the intervention was designed to probe the areas of learning as defined by Bloom and Krathwohl: affective, cognitive, and psychomotor.ResultsCombined confidence scores increased significantly overall following the simulation experience and individually in each of the three categories of Bloom’s Taxonomy: affective, cognitive, and psychomotor.ConclusionWe provide preliminary evidence that multiplayer screen-based simulation represents a scalable, distributable form of learning that may be used effectively in global health education and training. Interestingly, despite our intervention being screen-based, our subjects showed improved confidence in their ability to perform psychomotor tasks. Although there is precedent for mental rehearsal improving performance, further research is needed to understand this finding.

  8. A Novel Multiplayer Screen-Based Simulation Experience for African Learners Improved Confidence in Management of Postpartum Hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taekman, Jeffrey M; Foureman, Megan F; Bulamba, Fred; Steele, Michael; Comstock, Emily; Kintu, Andrew; Mauritz, Amy; Olufolabi, Adeyemi

    2017-01-01

    Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) remains a global challenge, affecting thirteen million women each year. In addition, PPH is a leading cause of maternal mortality in Asia and Africa. In the U.S.A., care of critically ill patients is often practiced using mannequin-based simulation. Mannequin-based simulation presents challenges in global health, particularly in low- or middle-income countries. We developed a novel multiplayer screen-based simulation in a virtual world enabling the practice of team coordination with PPH. We used this simulation with learners in Mulago, Uganda. We hypothesized that a multiplayer screen-based simulation experience would increase learner confidence in their ability to manage PPH. The study design was a simple pre- and a post-intervention survey. Forty-eight interprofessional subjects participated in one of nine 1-h simulation sessions using the PPH software. A fifteen-question self-assessment administered before and after the intervention was designed to probe the areas of learning as defined by Bloom and Krathwohl: affective, cognitive, and psychomotor. Combined confidence scores increased significantly overall following the simulation experience and individually in each of the three categories of Bloom's Taxonomy: affective, cognitive, and psychomotor. We provide preliminary evidence that multiplayer screen-based simulation represents a scalable, distributable form of learning that may be used effectively in global health education and training. Interestingly, despite our intervention being screen-based, our subjects showed improved confidence in their ability to perform psychomotor tasks. Although there is precedent for mental rehearsal improving performance, further research is needed to understand this finding.

  9. Method Based on Confidence Radius to Adjust the Location of Mobile Terminals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    García-Fernández, Juan Antonio; Jurado-Navas, Antonio; Fernández-Navarro, Mariano

    2017-01-01

    The present paper details a technique for adjusting in a smart manner the position estimates of any user equipment given by different geolocation/positioning methods in a wireless radiofrequency communication network based on different strategies (observed time difference of arrival , angle of ar...

  10. Search for high confidence AGN candidates and its counterparts in the Fermi-LAT unassociated sample using machine learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Einecke, Sabrina [Technical University Dortmund (Germany); Doert, Marlene [Ruhr-University Bochum (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    The third Fermi-LAT source catalog (3FGL) is the deepest all-sky survey in gamma-rays and comprises 3033 point sources. While for 2023 sources plausible associations have been found, 1010 remain unassociated. A search for active galactic nuclei (AGN) will help to reduce the number of unassociated sources, and will increase our knowledge of the population of gamma-ray emitting AGN. Several machine learning approaches applied to Fermi data have shown the capability of this method. The extension to multiwavelength data improves these studies, and at the same time offers the possibility to determine the most likely corresponding counterpart. As the 95% confidence region of the localization by the Fermi measurement is in the order of several arcminutes, generally multiple point sources at different wavelengths are located within this region and the association is ambiguous. To figure out the most likely counterpart, the associated sample is used to train machine learning classifiers as e.g. the random forest. Therefore, all possible combinations of the Fermi measurement and the measurements at a second wavelength are considered for a particular source. In this talk, the statistical model to obtain high confidence AGN counterpart candidates is described as well as the validation of the model to estimate the performance.

  11. Using incomplete trios to boost confidence in family based association studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varsha eDhankani

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Most currently available family based association tests are designed to account only for nuclear families with complete genotypes for parents as well as offspring. Due to the availability of increasingly less expensive generation of whole genome sequencing information, genetic studies are able to collect data for more families and from large family cohorts with the goal of improving statistical power. However, due to missing genotypes, many families are not included in the family based association tests, negating the benefits of large scale sequencing data. Here, we present the CIFBAT method to use incomplete families in Family Based Association Test (FBAT to evaluate robustness against missing data. CIFBAT uses quantile intervals of the FBAT statistic by randomly choosing valid completions of incomplete family genotypes based on Mendelian inheritance rules. By considering all valid completions equally likely and computing quantile intervals over several randomized iterations, CIFBAT avoids assumption of a homogeneous population structure or any particular missingness pattern in the data. Using simulated data, we show that the quantile intervals computed by CIFBAT are useful in validating robustness of the FBAT statistic against missing data and in identifying genomic markers with higher precision. We also propose a novel set of candidate genomic markers for uterine related abnormalities from analysis of familial whole genome sequences, and provide validation for a previously established set of candidate markers for Type 1 diabetes. We have provided a software package that incorporates TDT, robustTDT, FBAT and CIFBAT. The data format proposed for the software uses half the memory space that the standard FBAT format (PED files use, making it efficient for large scale genome wide association studies.

  12. System-Based Assessments—Improving the Confidence in the EIA Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff Wilson

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This viewpoint article examines Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA practices in developed and transitioning nations, identifies weaknesses, and proposes a new quantitative approach. The literature indicates that there exists little to no standardization in EIA practice, transitioning nations rely on weak scientific impact analyses, and the establishment of baseline conditions is generally missing. The more fundamental issue is that the “receptor”-based approach leads to a qualitative and subjective EIA, as it does not adequately integrate the full measure of the complexity of ecosystems, ongoing project risks, and cumulative impacts. We propose the application of a new framework that aims to ensure full life cycle assessment of impacts applicable to any EIA process, within any jurisdictional context. System-Based EIA (SBEIA is based on modeling to predict changes and rests on data analysis with a statistically rigorous approach to assess impacts. This global approach uses technologies and methodologies that are typically applied to characterize ecosystem structure and functioning, including remote sensing, modeling, and in situ monitoring. The aim of this approach is to provide a method that can produce quantifiable reproducible values of impact and risk and move EIA towards its substantive goal of sustainable development. The adoption of this approach would provide a better evaluation of economic costs and benefits for all stakeholders.

  13. Using Confidence Interval-Based Estimation of Relevance to Select Social-Cognitive Determinants for Behavior Change Interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rik Crutzen

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available When developing an intervention aimed at behavior change, one of the crucial steps in the development process is to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants. These determinants can be seen as the buttons one needs to push to establish behavior change. Insight into these determinants is needed to select behavior change methods (i.e., general behavior change techniques that are applied in an intervention in the development process. Therefore, a study on determinants is often conducted as formative research in the intervention development process. Ideally, all relevant determinants identified in such a study are addressed by an intervention. However, when developing a behavior change intervention, there are limits in terms of, for example, resources available for intervention development and the amount of content that participants of an intervention can be exposed to. Hence, it is important to select those determinants that are most relevant to the target behavior as these determinants should be addressed in an intervention. The aim of the current paper is to introduce a novel approach to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants and use them in intervention development. This approach is based on visualization of confidence intervals for the means and correlation coefficients for all determinants simultaneously. This visualization facilitates comparison, which is necessary when making selections. By means of a case study on the determinants of using a high dose of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (commonly known as ecstasy, we illustrate this approach. We provide a freely available tool to facilitate the analyses needed in this approach.

  14. Using Confidence Interval-Based Estimation of Relevance to Select Social-Cognitive Determinants for Behavior Change Interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crutzen, Rik; Peters, Gjalt-Jorn Ygram; Noijen, Judith

    2017-01-01

    When developing an intervention aimed at behavior change, one of the crucial steps in the development process is to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants. These determinants can be seen as the buttons one needs to push to establish behavior change. Insight into these determinants is needed to select behavior change methods (i.e., general behavior change techniques that are applied in an intervention) in the development process. Therefore, a study on determinants is often conducted as formative research in the intervention development process. Ideally, all relevant determinants identified in such a study are addressed by an intervention. However, when developing a behavior change intervention, there are limits in terms of, for example, resources available for intervention development and the amount of content that participants of an intervention can be exposed to. Hence, it is important to select those determinants that are most relevant to the target behavior as these determinants should be addressed in an intervention. The aim of the current paper is to introduce a novel approach to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants and use them in intervention development. This approach is based on visualization of confidence intervals for the means and correlation coefficients for all determinants simultaneously. This visualization facilitates comparison, which is necessary when making selections. By means of a case study on the determinants of using a high dose of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (commonly known as ecstasy), we illustrate this approach. We provide a freely available tool to facilitate the analyses needed in this approach.

  15. Classroom-based Interventions and Teachers' Perceived Job Stressors and Confidence: Evidence from a Randomized Trial in Head Start Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Fuhua; Raver, C Cybele; Li-Grining, Christine

    2011-09-01

    Preschool teachers' job stressors have received increasing attention but have been understudied in the literature. We investigated the impacts of a classroom-based intervention, the Chicago School Readiness Project (CSRP), on teachers' perceived job stressors and confidence, as indexed by their perceptions of job control, job resources, job demands, and confidence in behavior management. Using a clustered randomized controlled trial (RCT) design, the CSRP provided multifaceted services to the treatment group, including teacher training and mental health consultation, which were accompanied by stress-reduction services and workshops. Overall, 90 teachers in 35 classrooms at 18 Head Start sites participated in the study. After adjusting for teacher and classroom factors and site fixed effects, we found that the CSRP had significant effects on the improvement of teachers' perceived job control and work-related resources. We also found that the CSRP decreased teachers' confidence in behavior management and had no statistically significant effects on job demands. Overall, we did not find significant moderation effects of teacher race/ethnicity, education, teaching experience, or teacher type. The implications for research and policy are discussed.

  16. Evaluating an undergraduate interprofessional simulation-based educational module: communication, teamwork, and confidence performing cardiac resuscitation skills

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marian Luctkar-Flude

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Marian Luctkar-Flude1, Cynthia Baker1, Cheryl Pulling1, Robert McGraw2, Damon Dagnone2, Jennifer Medves1, Carly Turner-Kelly11School of Nursing, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada; 2School of Medicine, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, CanadaPurpose: Interprofessional (IP collaboration during cardiac resuscitation is essential and contributes to patient wellbeing. The purpose of this study is to evaluate an innovative simulation-based IP educational module for undergraduate nursing and medical students on cardiac resuscitation skills.Methods: Nursing and medical trainees participated in a new cardiac resuscitation curriculum involving a 2-hour IP foundational cardiac resuscitation skills lab, followed by three 2-hour IP simulation sessions. Control group participants attended the existing two 2-hour IP simulation sessions. Study respondents (N = 71 completed a survey regarding their confidence performing cardiac resuscitation skills and their perceptions of IP collaboration.Results: Despite a consistent positive trend, only one out of 17 quantitative survey items were significantly improved for learners in the new curriculum. They were more likely to report feeling confident managing the airway during cardiac resuscitation (P = 0.001. Overall, quantitative results suggest that senior nursing and medical students were comfortable with IP communication and teamwork and confident with cardiac resuscitation skills. There were no significant differences between nursing students’ and medical students’ results. Through qualitative feedback, participants reported feeling comfortable learning with students from other professions and found value in the IP simulation sessions.Conclusion: Results from this study will inform ongoing restructuring of the IP cardiac resuscitation skills simulation module as defined by the action research process. Specific improvements that are suggested by these findings include strengthening the team

  17. Cadaver-Based Simulation Increases Resident Confidence, Initial Exposure to Fundamental Techniques, and May Augment Operative Autonomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Steven C; Fisher, Jeremy G; Delman, Keith A; Hinman, Johanna M; Srinivasan, Jahnavi K

    Surgical simulation is an important adjunct in surgical education. The majority of operative procedures can be simplified to core components. This study aimed to quantify a cadaver-based simulation course utility in improving exposure to fundamental maneuvers, resident and attending confidence in trainee capability, and if this led to earlier operative independence. A list of fundamental surgical procedures was established by a faculty panel. Residents were assigned to a group led by a chief resident. Residents performed skills on cadavers appropriate for PGY level. A video-recorded examination where they narrated and demonstrated a task independently was then graded by attendings using standardized rubrics. Participants completed surveys regarding improvements in knowledge and confidence. The course was conducted at the Emory University School of Medicine and the T3 Laboratories in Atlanta, GA. A total of 133 residents and 41 attendings participated in the course. 133 (100%) participating residents and 32 (78%) attendings completed surveys. Resident confidence in completing the assigned skill independently increased from 3 (2-3) to 4 (3-4), p 80%), p < 0.04. Attendings were more likely to grant autonomy in the operating room after this exercise (4 [3-5]). A cadaveric skills course focused on fundamental maneuvers with objective confirmation of success is a viable adjunct to clinical operative experience. Residents were formally exposed to fundamental surgical maneuvers earlier as a result of this course. This activity improved both resident and attending confidence in trainee operative skill, resulting in increased attending willingness to grant a higher level of autonomy in the operating room. Copyright © 2016 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Comparison of student confidence and perceptions of biochemistry concepts using a team-based learning versus traditional lecture-based format.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gryka, Rebecca; Kiersma, Mary E; Frame, Tracy R; Cailor, Stephanie M; Chen, Aleda M H

    To evaluate differences in student confidence and perceptions of biochemistry concepts using a team-based learning (TBL) format versus a traditional lecture-based format at two universities. Two pedagogies (TBL vs lecture-based) were utilized to deliver biochemistry concepts at two universities in a first-professional year, semester-long biochemistry course. A 21-item instrument was created and administered pre-post semester to assess changes in confidence in learning biochemistry concepts using Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory (eight items, 5-point, Likert-type) and changes in student perceptions of biochemistry utilizing the theory of planned behavior (TPB) domains (13 items, 7- point, Likert-type). Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to evaluate pre-post changes, and Mann Whitney U tests for differences between universities. All students (N=111) had more confidence in biochemistry concepts post-semester, but TBL students (N=53) were significantly more confident. TBL students also had greater agreement that they are expected to actively engage in science courses post-semester, according to the perceptions of biochemistry subscale. No other differences between lecture and TBL were observed post-semester. Students in a TBL course had greater gains in confidence. Since students often engage in tasks where they feel confident, TBL can be a useful pedagogy to promote student learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. A confidence metric for using neurobiological feedback in actor-critic reinforcement learning based brain-machine interfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noeline Wilhelmina Prins

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Brain-Machine Interfaces (BMIs can be used to restore function in people living with paralysis. Current BMIs require extensive calibration that increase the set-up times and external inputs for decoder training that may be difficult to produce in paralyzed individuals. Both these factors have presented challenges in transitioning the technology from research environments to activities of daily living (ADL. For BMIs to be seamlessly used in ADL, these issues should be handled with minimal external input thus reducing the need for a technician/caregiver to calibrate the system. Reinforcement Learning (RL based BMIs are a good tool to be used when there is no external training signal and can provide an adaptive modality to train BMI decoders. However, RL based BMIs are sensitive to the feedback provided to adapt the BMI. In actor-critic BMIs, this feedback is provided by the critic and the overall system performance is limited by the critic accuracy. In this work, we developed an adaptive BMI that could handle inaccuracies in the critic feedback in an effort to produce more accurate RL based BMIs. We developed a confidence measure, which indicated how appropriate the feedback is for updating the decoding parameters of the actor. The results show that with the new update formulation, the critic accuracy is no longer a limiting factor for the overall performance. We tested and validated the system on three different data sets: synthetic data generated by an Izhikevich neural spiking model, synthetic data with a Gaussian noise distribution, and data collected from a non-human primate engaged in a reaching task. All results indicated that the system with the critic confidence built in always outperformed the system without the critic confidence. Results of this study suggest the potential application of the technique in developing an autonomous BMI that does not need an external signal for training or extensive calibration.

  20. Validation of an instrument to assess evidence-based practice knowledge, attitudes, access, and confidence in the dental environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendricson, William D; Rugh, John D; Hatch, John P; Stark, Debra L; Deahl, Thomas; Wallmann, Elizabeth R

    2011-02-01

    This article reports the validation of an assessment instrument designed to measure the outcomes of training in evidence-based practice (EBP) in the context of dentistry. Four EBP dimensions are measured by this instrument: 1) understanding of EBP concepts, 2) attitudes about EBP, 3) evidence-accessing methods, and 4) confidence in critical appraisal. The instrument-the Knowledge, Attitudes, Access, and Confidence Evaluation (KACE)-has four scales, with a total of thirty-five items: EBP knowledge (ten items), EBP attitudes (ten), accessing evidence (nine), and confidence (six). Four elements of validity were assessed: consistency of items within the KACE scales (extent to which items within a scale measure the same dimension), discrimination (capacity to detect differences between individuals with different training or experience), responsiveness (capacity to detect the effects of education on trainees), and test-retest reliability. Internal consistency of scales was assessed by analyzing responses of second-year dental students, dental residents, and dental faculty members using Cronbach coefficient alpha, a statistical measure of reliability. Discriminative validity was assessed by comparing KACE scores for the three groups. Responsiveness was assessed by comparing pre- and post-training responses for dental students and residents. To measure test-retest reliability, the full KACE was completed twice by a class of freshman dental students seventeen days apart, and the knowledge scale was completed twice by sixteen faculty members fourteen days apart. Item-to-scale consistency ranged from 0.21 to 0.78 for knowledge, 0.57 to 0.83 for attitude, 0.70 to 0.84 for accessing evidence, and 0.87 to 0.94 for confidence. For discrimination, ANOVA and post hoc testing by the Tukey-Kramer method revealed significant score differences among students, residents, and faculty members consistent with education and experience levels. For responsiveness to training, dental students

  1. Confidence-Based Data Association and Discriminative Deep Appearance Learning for Robust Online Multi-Object Tracking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Seung-Hwan; Yoon, Kuk-Jin

    2018-03-01

    Online multi-object tracking aims at estimating the tracks of multiple objects instantly with each incoming frame and the information provided up to the moment. It still remains a difficult problem in complex scenes, because of the large ambiguity in associating multiple objects in consecutive frames and the low discriminability between objects appearances. In this paper, we propose a robust online multi-object tracking method that can handle these difficulties effectively. We first define the tracklet confidence using the detectability and continuity of a tracklet, and decompose a multi-object tracking problem into small subproblems based on the tracklet confidence. We then solve the online multi-object tracking problem by associating tracklets and detections in different ways according to their confidence values. Based on this strategy, tracklets sequentially grow with online-provided detections, and fragmented tracklets are linked up with others without any iterative and expensive association steps. For more reliable association between tracklets and detections, we also propose a deep appearance learning method to learn a discriminative appearance model from large training datasets, since the conventional appearance learning methods do not provide rich representation that can distinguish multiple objects with large appearance variations. In addition, we combine online transfer learning for improving appearance discriminability by adapting the pre-trained deep model during online tracking. Experiments with challenging public datasets show distinct performance improvement over other state-of-the-arts batch and online tracking methods, and prove the effect and usefulness of the proposed methods for online multi-object tracking.

  2. LitPathExplorer: a confidence-based visual text analytics tool for exploring literature-enriched pathway models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto, Axel J; Zerva, Chrysoula; Batista-Navarro, Riza; Ananiadou, Sophia

    2018-04-15

    Pathway models are valuable resources that help us understand the various mechanisms underpinning complex biological processes. Their curation is typically carried out through manual inspection of published scientific literature to find information relevant to a model, which is a laborious and knowledge-intensive task. Furthermore, models curated manually cannot be easily updated and maintained with new evidence extracted from the literature without automated support. We have developed LitPathExplorer, a visual text analytics tool that integrates advanced text mining, semi-supervised learning and interactive visualization, to facilitate the exploration and analysis of pathway models using statements (i.e. events) extracted automatically from the literature and organized according to levels of confidence. LitPathExplorer supports pathway modellers and curators alike by: (i) extracting events from the literature that corroborate existing models with evidence; (ii) discovering new events which can update models; and (iii) providing a confidence value for each event that is automatically computed based on linguistic features and article metadata. Our evaluation of event extraction showed a precision of 89% and a recall of 71%. Evaluation of our confidence measure, when used for ranking sampled events, showed an average precision ranging between 61 and 73%, which can be improved to 95% when the user is involved in the semi-supervised learning process. Qualitative evaluation using pair analytics based on the feedback of three domain experts confirmed the utility of our tool within the context of pathway model exploration. LitPathExplorer is available at http://nactem.ac.uk/LitPathExplorer_BI/. sophia.ananiadou@manchester.ac.uk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  3. Using Closed-Set Speaker Identification Score Confidence to Enhance Audio-Based Collaborative Filtering for Multiple Users

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shepstone, Sven Ewan; Tan, Zheng-Hua; Kristoffersen, Miklas Strøm

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we utilize a closed-set speaker-identification approach to convey the ratings needed for collaborative filtering-based recommendation. Instead of explicitly providing a rating for a given program, users use a speech interface to dictate the desired rating after watching a movie. Due...... to the inaccuracies that may be imposed by a state-of-the-art speaker identification system, it is possible to mistake a user for another user in the household, especially when the users exhibit similar or identical age and gender demographics. This leads to the undesirable effect of injecting unwanted ratings...... into the collaborative rating matrix, and when the users have different tastes, can result in the recommendation of undesirable items. We therefore propose a simple confidence-based heuristic that utilizes the log-likelihood scores from the speaker identification front-end. The algorithm limits the degree to which...

  4. "Joint Workshop on High Confidence Medical Devices, Software, and Systems (HCMDSS) and Medical Device Plug-and-Play (MD PnP) Interoperability"

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Goldman, Julian M

    2008-01-01

    Partial support was requested from TATRC, with joint funding from NSF, for a joint workshop to bring together the synergistic efforts and communities of the High Confidence Medical Devices, Software, and Systems (HCMDSS...

  5. Building metamemorial knowledge over time: insights from eye tracking about the bases of feeling-of-knowing and confidence judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Solinger, Lisa A

    2015-01-01

    Metamemory processes depend on different factors across the learning and memory time-scale. In the laboratory, subjects are often asked to make prospective feeling-of-knowing (FOK) judgments about target retrievability, or are asked to make retrospective confidence judgments (RCJs) about the retrieved target. We examined distinct and shared contributors to metamemory judgments, and how they were built over time. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative memory task. At test, participants viewed a studied scene, then rated their FOK that they would remember the associated face. This was followed by a forced choice recognition test and RCJs. FOK judgments were less accurate than RCJ judgments, showing that the addition of mnemonic experience can increase metacognitive accuracy over time. However, there was also evidence that the given FOK rating influenced RCJs. Turning to eye movements, initial analyses showed that higher cue fluency was related to both higher FOKs and higher RCJs. However, further analyses revealed that the effects of the scene cue on RCJs were mediated by FOKs. Turning to the target, increased viewing time and faster viewing of the correct associate related to higher FOKs, consistent with the idea that target accessibility is a basis of FOKs. In contrast, the amount of viewing directed to the chosen face, regardless of whether it was correct, predicted higher RCJs, suggesting that choice experience is a significant contributor RCJs. We also examined covariates of the change in RCJ rating from the FOK rating, and showed that increased and faster viewing of the chosen face predicted raising one's confidence above one's FOK. Taken together these results suggest that metamemory judgments should not be thought of only as distinct subjective experiences, but complex processes that interact and evolve as new psychological bases for subjective experience become available.

  6. Evidence-Based Practice Knowledge, Attitude, Access and Confidence: A comparison of dental hygiene and dental students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago, Victoria; Cardenas, Melissa; Charles, Anne Laure; Hernandez, Estefany; Oyoyo, Udochukwu; Kwon, So Ran

    2018-04-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether current educational strategies at a dental institution in the United States made a difference in dental hygiene (DNHY) and dental students' (D3) learning outcomes in the four domains of evidence-based practice (EBP), knowledge, attitude, accessing evidence, and confidence (KACE), following a 12-week research design course. Methods: All participants DNHY (n=19) and D3 (n=96) enrolled in the research design course at Loma Linda University completed a paper KACE survey distributed on the first day of class. Students completed the KACE survey once more at the end of the 12-week course. Pre- and post-survey results were compared both within and between the DNHY and D3 student groups to identify the learning outcomes in the four domains of EBP; knowledge, attitude, accessing evidence, and confidence in EBP. Descriptive statistics were conducted to profile all variables in the study; the level of significance was set at α=0.05. Results: All DNHY students (n=19) completed the pre and post KACE surveys; of the D3 (n=96) students enrolled in the course 82% (n=79) competed the post-survey. Comparison of the survey results showed that both DNHY and D3 students demonstrated statistically significant increases in their level of knowledge and attitude (p 0.05). Conclusion: DNHY and D3 students increased their knowledge and developed more positive attitudes towards EBP following a 12-week research design course. Study results identify improvement areas for EBP knowledge acquisition including determining levels of evidence, analysis of study results, and evaluating the appropriateness of research study designs through the use of validated EBP survey instrument. Copyright © 2018 The American Dental Hygienists’ Association.

  7. How to confidently teach EBM on foot: development and evaluation of a web-based e-learning course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weberschock, Tobias; Sorinola, Olanrewaju; Thangaratinam, Shakila; Oude Rengerink, Katrien; Arvanitis, Theodoros N; Khan, Khalid S

    2013-10-01

    Scarcity of well-trained clinical tutors is a key constraint in integrating teaching of evidence-based medicine (EBM) into clinical activities. We developed a web-based educational course for clinical trainers to confidently teach EBM principles in everyday practice. Its e-learning modules defined the learning objectives and incorporated video clips of practical and effective EBM teaching methods for exploiting educational opportunities in six different clinical settings. We evaluated the course with clinical tutors in different specialties across six European countries using a questionnaire to capture learning achievement against preset objectives. Among 56 tutors, 47 participants (84%) improved their scores from baseline. The mean pre-course score was 69.2 (SD=10.4), which increased to 77.3 (SD=11.7) postcourse (peffect size was moderate with a Cohen's d of 0.73. An e-learning approach incorporating videos of applied EBM teaching and learning based on real clinical scenarios in the workplace can be useful in facilitating EBM teaching on foot. It can be integrated in the continuing professional development programmes for clinical trainers.

  8. The Confidence-Accuracy Relationship in Eyewitness Identification: Effects of Lineup Instructions, Foil Similarity, and Target-Absent Base Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Neil; Wells, Gary L.

    2006-01-01

    Discriminating accurate from mistaken eyewitness identifications is a major issue facing criminal justice systems. This study examined whether eyewitness confidence assists such decisions under a variety of conditions using a confidence-accuracy (CA) calibration approach. Participants (N = 1,200) viewed a simulated crime and attempted 2 separate…

  9. Weighted profile likelihood-based confidence interval for the difference between two proportions with paired binomial data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Vivek; Saha, Krishna K; Banerjee, Tathagata; Evans, John C

    2014-07-30

    Inference on the difference between two binomial proportions in the paired binomial setting is often an important problem in many biomedical investigations. Tang et al. (2010, Statistics in Medicine) discussed six methods to construct confidence intervals (henceforth, we abbreviate it as CI) for the difference between two proportions in paired binomial setting using method of variance estimates recovery. In this article, we propose weighted profile likelihood-based CIs for the difference between proportions of a paired binomial distribution. However, instead of the usual likelihood, we use weighted likelihood that is essentially making adjustments to the cell frequencies of a 2 × 2 table in the spirit of Agresti and Min (2005, Statistics in Medicine). We then conduct numerical studies to compare the performances of the proposed CIs with that of Tang et al. and Agresti and Min in terms of coverage probabilities and expected lengths. Our numerical study clearly indicates that the weighted profile likelihood-based intervals and Jeffreys interval (cf. Tang et al.) are superior in terms of achieving the nominal level, and in terms of expected lengths, they are competitive. Finally, we illustrate the use of the proposed CIs with real-life examples. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Faults Diagnostics of Railway Axle Bearings Based on IMF’s Confidence Index Algorithm for Ensemble EMD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Cai; Lin, Jianhui; Zhang, Weihua; Ding, Jianming

    2015-01-01

    As train loads and travel speeds have increased over time, railway axle bearings have become critical elements which require more efficient non-destructive inspection and fault diagnostics methods. This paper presents a novel and adaptive procedure based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and Hilbert marginal spectrum for multi-fault diagnostics of axle bearings. EEMD overcomes the limitations that often hypothesize about data and computational efforts that restrict the application of signal processing techniques. The outputs of this adaptive approach are the intrinsic mode functions that are treated with the Hilbert transform in order to obtain the Hilbert instantaneous frequency spectrum and marginal spectrum. Anyhow, not all the IMFs obtained by the decomposition should be considered into Hilbert marginal spectrum. The IMFs’ confidence index arithmetic proposed in this paper is fully autonomous, overcoming the major limit of selection by user with experience, and allows the development of on-line tools. The effectiveness of the improvement is proven by the successful diagnosis of an axle bearing with a single fault or multiple composite faults, e.g., outer ring fault, cage fault and pin roller fault. PMID:25970256

  11. Processing of recognition information and additional cues: A model-based analysis of choice, confidence, and response time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Glockner

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Research on the processing of recognition information has focused on testing the recognition heuristic (RH. On the aggregate, the noncompensatory use of recognition information postulated by the RH was rejected in several studies, while RH could still account for a considerable proportion of choices. These results can be explained if either a a part of the subjects used RH or b nobody used it but its choice predictions were accidentally in line with predictions of the strategy used. In the current study, which exemplifies a new approach to model testing, we determined individuals' decision strategies based on a maximum-likelihood classification method, taking into account choices, response times and confidence ratings simultaneously. Unlike most previous studies of the RH, our study tested the RH under conditions in which we provided information about cue values of unrecognized objects (which we argue is fairly common and thus of some interest. For 77.5% of the subjects, overall behavior was best explained by a compensatory parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS strategy. The proportion of subjects using an enhanced RH heuristic (RHe was negligible (up to 7.5%; 15% of the subjects seemed to use a take the best strategy (TTB. A more-fine grained analysis of the supplemental behavioral parameters conditional on strategy use supports PCS but calls into question process assumptions for apparent users of RH, RHe, and TTB within our experimental context. Our results are consistent with previous literature highlighting the importance of individual strategy classification as compared to aggregated analyses.

  12. Confidence ellipses: A variation based on parametric bootstrapping applicable on Multiple Factor Analysis results for rapid graphical evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dehlholm, Christian; Brockhoff, Per B.; Bredie, Wender L. P.

    2012-01-01

    A new way of parametric bootstrapping allows similar construction of confidence ellipses applicable on all results from Multiple Factor Analysis obtained from the FactoMineR package in the statistical program R. With this procedure, a similar approach will be applied to Multiple Factor Analysis r...... in different studies performed on the same set of products. In addition, the graphical display of confidence ellipses eases interpretation and communication of results....

  13. Factorial-based response-surface modeling with confidence intervals for optimizing thermal-optical transmission analysis of atmospheric black carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conny, J.M.; Norris, G.A.; Gould, T.R.

    2009-01-01

    Thermal-optical transmission (TOT) analysis measures black carbon (BC) in atmospheric aerosol on a fibrous filter. The method pyrolyzes organic carbon (OC) and employs laser light absorption to distinguish BC from the pyrolyzed OC; however, the instrument does not necessarily separate the two physically. In addition, a comprehensive temperature protocol for the analysis based on the Beer-Lambert Law remains elusive. Here, empirical response-surface modeling was used to show how the temperature protocol in TOT analysis can be modified to distinguish pyrolyzed OC from BC based on the Beer-Lambert Law. We determined the apparent specific absorption cross sections for pyrolyzed OC (σ Char ) and BC (σ BC ), which accounted for individual absorption enhancement effects within the filter. Response-surface models of these cross sections were derived from a three-factor central-composite factorial experimental design: temperature and duration of the high-temperature step in the helium phase, and the heating increase in the helium-oxygen phase. The response surface for σ BC , which varied with instrument conditions, revealed a ridge indicating the correct conditions for OC pyrolysis in helium. The intersection of the σ BC and σ Char surfaces indicated the conditions where the cross sections were equivalent, satisfying an important assumption upon which the method relies. 95% confidence interval surfaces defined a confidence region for a range of pyrolysis conditions. Analyses of wintertime samples from Seattle, WA revealed a temperature between 830 deg. C and 850 deg. C as most suitable for the helium high-temperature step lasting 150 s. However, a temperature as low as 750 deg. C could not be rejected statistically

  14. Comparing the Effects of Simulation-Based and Traditional Teaching Methods on the Critical Thinking Abilities and Self-Confidence of Nursing Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    AlAmrani, Mashael-Hasan; AlAmmar, Kamila-Ahmad; AlQahtani, Sarah-Saad; Salem, Olfat A

    2017-10-10

    Critical thinking and self-confidence are imperative to success in clinical practice. Educators should use teaching strategies that will help students enhance their critical thinking and self-confidence in complex content such as electrocardiogram interpretation. Therefore, teaching electrocardiogram interpretation to students is important for nurse educators. This study compares the effect of simulation-based and traditional teaching methods on the critical thinking and self-confidence of students during electrocardiogram interpretation sessions. Thirty undergraduate nursing students volunteered to participate in this study. The participants were divided into intervention and control groups, which were taught respectively using the simulation-based and traditional teaching programs. All of the participants were asked to complete the study instrumentpretest and posttest to measure their critical thinking and self-confidence. Improvement was observed in the control and experimental groups with respect to critical thinking and self-confidence, as evidenced by the results of the paired samples t test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test (p .05). This study evaluated an innovative simulation-based teaching method for nurses. No significant differences in outcomes were identified between the simulator-based and traditional teaching methods, indicating that well-implemented educational programs that use either teaching method effectively promote critical thinking and self-confidence in nursing students. Nurse educators are encouraged to design educational plans with clear objectives to improve the critical thinking and self-confidence of their students. Future research should compare the effects of several teaching sessions using each method in a larger sample.

  15. Teaching evidence-based practice (EBP) to speech-language therapy students: are students competent and confident EBP users?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spek, B; Wieringa-de Waard, M; Lucas, C; van Dijk, N

    2013-01-01

    The importance and value of the principles of evidence-based practice (EBP) in the decision-making process is recognized by speech-language therapists (SLTs) worldwide and as a result curricula for speech-language therapy students incorporated EBP principles. However, the willingness actually to use EBP principles in their future profession not only depends on EBP knowledge and skills, but also on self-efficacy and task value students perceive towards EBP. To investigate the relation between EBP knowledge and skills, and EBP self-efficacy and task value in different year groups of Dutch SLT students. Students from three year groups filled in a tool that measured EBP knowledge and skills: the Dutch Modified Fresno (DMF). EBP self-efficacy and task value were assessed by using a 20-item questionnaire. Both tools were validated for this population. Mean scores for the three year groups were calculated and tested for group differences using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with a post-hoc Games-Howell procedure. With a multiple linear regression technique it was assessed whether EBP self-efficacy and task value predict learning achievement scores on the DMF. Other possible predictors included in the model were: level of prior education, standard of English, having had mathematics in prior education and the SLT study year. A total of 149 students filled in both measurement tools. Mean scores on EBP knowledge and skills were significantly different for the three year groups, with students who were further along their studies scoring higher on the DMF. Mean scores on the EBP self-efficacy and task value questionnaire were the same for the three year groups: all students valued EBP positive but self-efficacy was low in all groups. Of the possible predictors, only the year in which students study and EBP self-efficacy were significant predictors for learning achievements in EBP. Despite a significant increase in EBP knowledge and skills over the years as assessed by

  16. Improving Nurses' Peripheral Intravenous Catheter Insertion Knowledge, Confidence, and Skills Using a Simulation-Based Blended Learning Program: A Randomized Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keleekai, Nowai L; Schuster, Catherine A; Murray, Connie L; King, Mary Anne; Stahl, Brian R; Labrozzi, Laura J; Gallucci, Susan; LeClair, Matthew W; Glover, Kevin R

    2016-12-01

    Peripheral intravenous catheter (PIVC) insertion is one of the most common invasive procedures performed in a hospital, but most nurses receive little formal training in this area. Blended PIVC insertion training programs that incorporate deliberate simulated practice have the potential to improve clinical practice and patient care. The study was a randomized, wait-list control group with crossover using nurses on three medical/surgical units. Baseline PIVC knowledge, confidence, and skills assessments were completed for both groups. The intervention group then received a 2-hour PIVC online course, followed by an 8-hour live training course using a synergistic mix of three simulation tools. Both groups were then reassessed. After crossover, the wait-list group received the same intervention and both groups were reassessed. At baseline, both groups were similar for knowledge, confidence, and skills. Compared with the wait-list group, the intervention group had significantly higher scores for knowledge, confidence, and skills upon completing the training program. After crossover, the wait-list group had similarly higher scores for knowledge, confidence, and skills than the intervention group. Between the immediate preintervention and postintervention periods, the intervention group improved scores for knowledge by 31%, skills by 24%, and decreased confidence by 0.5%, whereas the wait-list group improved scores for knowledge by 28%, confidence by 16%, and skills by 15%. Results demonstrate significant improvements in nurses' knowledge, confidence, and skills with the use of a simulation-based blended learning program for PIVC insertion. Transferability of these findings from a simulated environment into clinical practice should be further explored.

  17. The Effectiveness of Blackboard-Based Blended Teaching in the Development of Academic Achievement, Study Skills and Self-Confidence among Students of Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Otaibi, Wadha H.

    2017-01-01

    The present study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of blended teaching, based on the e-learning management system "Blackboard," in the development of academic achievement, study skills and self-confidence among the students of Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University (PNU). The study sample consisted of (38) female students who…

  18. Comparison of physical impairment, functional, and psychosocial measures based on fear of reinjury/lack of confidence and return-to-sport status after ACL reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, Trevor A; Zeppieri, Giorgio; George, Steven Z; Tillman, Susan M; Moser, Michael W; Farmer, Kevin W; Chmielewski, Terese L

    2015-02-01

    Fear of reinjury and lack of confidence influence return-to-sport outcomes after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction. The physical, psychosocial, and functional recovery of patients reporting fear of reinjury or lack of confidence as their primary barrier to resuming sports participation is unknown. To compare physical impairment, functional, and psychosocial measures between subgroups based on return-to-sport status and fear of reinjury/lack of confidence in the return-to-sport stage and to determine the association of physical impairment and psychosocial measures with function for each subgroup at 6 months and 1 year after surgery. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Physical impairment (quadriceps index [QI], quadriceps strength/body weight [QSBW], hamstring:quadriceps strength ratio [HQ ratio], pain intensity), self-report of function (International Knee Documentation Committee [IKDC]), and psychosocial (Tampa Scale for Kinesiophobia-shortened form [TSK-11]) measures were collected at 6 months and 1 year after surgery in 73 patients with ACL reconstruction. At 1 year, subjects were divided into "return-to-sport" (YRTS) or "not return-to-sport" (NRTS) subgroups based on their self-reported return to preinjury sport status. Patients in the NRTS subgroup were subcategorized as NRTS-Fear/Confidence if fear of reinjury/lack of confidence was the primary reason for not returning to sports, and all others were categorized as NRTS-Other. A total of 46 subjects were assigned to YRTS, 13 to NRTS-Other, and 14 to NRTS-Fear/Confidence. Compared with the YRTS subgroup, the NRTS-Fear/Confidence subgroup was older and had lower QSBW, lower IKDC score, and higher TSK-11 score at 6 months and 1 year; however, they had similar pain levels. In the NRTS-Fear/Confidence subgroup, the IKDC score was associated with QSBW and pain at 6 months and QSBW, QI, pain, and TSK-11 scores at 1 year. Elevated pain-related fear of movement/reinjury, quadriceps weakness, and

  19. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.

  20. A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in community-based cluster randomization trials with a binary outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan

    2016-04-01

    Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith

  1. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hemez, Francois M.

    2015-01-01

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to ''forecast,'' that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists ''think.'' This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. ''Confidence'' derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  2. The reliability of prayer-based self-efficacy scale to assess self-confidence of Muslims with low back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Obaidi, Saud; Wall, James C; Mulekar, Madhuri S; Al-Mutairie, Rebecca

    2012-06-01

    Low back pain (LBP) may challenge an individual's self-confidence to perform usual daily activities such as Islamic daily prayer. Existing self-efficacy scales may not be appropriate to assess individual's self-confidence to perform Islamic prayers. This study aimed to develop a scale to assess self-confidence to prepare and perform Islamic prayer in the presence of LBP, the Islamic Prayer-based Self-efficacy Scale (IpbSeS), and to determine its consistency. The IpbSeS consists of three parts: pre-prayer preparation, getting to and from the mosque, and positions and movements during prayer. On a scale of 0 to 6, 0 indicates 'not at all confident' and 6 'fully confident'. Sixty individuals with LBP gave their responses on two different visits. Pain intensity was assessed by the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), and the pain intensity changes were assessed using a seven-point global patient rating scale. Descriptive statistics, Pearson's correlation coefficient, Wilcoxon test and t-test were used in the analysis (alpha set at 0.05). VAS scores did not differ significantly between visits. No association was found between VAS and age (r = 0.039, p = 0.77) and between VAS and body mass index (BMI; r = 0.06, p = 0. 67). All 28 questions have consistent responses on two visits (0.75 ≤ r ≤ 0.99, p Muslims in the presence of LBP to pray. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. The Effect of High-Fidelity Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) Simulation on Athletic Training Student Knowledge, Confidence, Emotions, and Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tivener, Kristin Ann; Gloe, Donna Sue

    2015-01-01

    Context: High-fidelity simulation is widely used in healthcare for the training and professional education of students though literature of its application to athletic training education remains sparse. Objective: This research attempts to address a wide-range of data. This includes athletic training student knowledge acquisition from…

  4. Developing confidence in a coupled TH model based on the results of experiment by using engineering scale test facility, 'COUPLE'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujisaki, Kiyoshi; Suzuki, Hideaki; Fujita, Tomoo

    2008-03-01

    It is necessary to understand quantitative changes of near-field conditions and processes over time and space for modeling the near-field evolution after emplacement of engineered barriers. However, the coupled phenomena in near-field are complicated because thermo-, hydro-, mechanical, chemical processes will interact each other. The question is, therefore, whether the applied model will represent the coupled behavior adequately or not. In order to develop confidence in the modeling, it is necessary to compare with results of coupled behavior experiments in laboratory or in site. In this report, we evaluated the applicability of a coupled T-H model under the conditions of simulated near-field for the results of coupled T-H experiment in laboratory. As a result, it has been shown that the fitting by the modeling with the measured data is reasonable under this condition. (author)

  5. Impaired action self-monitoring and cognitive confidence among ultra-high risk for psychosis and first-episode psychosis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawęda, Ł; Li, E; Lavoie, S; Whitford, T J; Moritz, S; Nelson, B

    2018-01-01

    Self-monitoring biases and overconfidence in incorrect judgments have been suggested as playing a role in schizophrenia spectrum disorders. Little is known about whether self-monitoring biases may contribute to early risk factors for psychosis. In this study, action self-monitoring (i.e., discrimination between imagined and performed actions) was investigated, along with confidence in judgments among ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis individuals and first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients. Thirty-six UHR for psychosis individuals, 25 FEP patients and 33 healthy controls (CON) participated in the study. Participants were assessed with the Action memory task. Simple actions were presented to participants verbally or non-verbally. Some actions were required to be physically performed and others were imagined. Participants were asked whether the action was presented verbally or non-verbally (action presentation type discrimination), and whether the action was performed or imagined (self-monitoring). Confidence self-ratings related to self-monitoring responses were obtained. The analysis of self-monitoring revealed that both UHR and FEP groups misattributed imagined actions as being performed (i.e., self-monitoring errors) significantly more often than the CON group. There were no differences regarding performed actions as being imagined. UHR and FEP groups made their false responses with higher confidence in their judgments than the CON group. There were no group differences regarding discrimination between the types of actions presented (verbal vs non-verbal). A specific type of self-monitoring bias (i.e., misattributing imagined actions with performed actions), accompanied by high confidence in this judgment, may be a risk factor for the subsequent development of a psychotic disorder. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  6. High confidence proteomic analysis of yeast LDs identifies additional droplet proteins and reveals connections to dolichol synthesis and sterol acetylation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Erin; Guo, Xiuling; Christiano, Romain; Chitraju, Chandramohan; Kory, Nora; Harrison, Kenneth; Haas, Joel; Walther, Tobias C; Farese, Robert V

    2014-07-01

    Accurate protein inventories are essential for understanding an organelle's functions. The lipid droplet (LD) is a ubiquitous intracellular organelle with major functions in lipid storage and metabolism. LDs differ from other organelles because they are bounded by a surface monolayer, presenting unique features for protein targeting to LDs. Many proteins of varied functions have been found in purified LD fractions by proteomics. While these studies have become increasingly sensitive, it is often unclear which of the identified proteins are specific to LDs. Here we used protein correlation profiling to identify 35 proteins that specifically enrich with LD fractions of Saccharomyces cerevisiae Of these candidates, 30 fluorophore-tagged proteins localize to LDs by microscopy, including six proteins, several with human orthologs linked to diseases, which we newly identify as LD proteins (Cab5, Rer2, Say1, Tsc10, YKL047W, and YPR147C). Two of these proteins, Say1, a sterol deacetylase, and Rer2, a cis-isoprenyl transferase, are enzymes involved in sterol and polyprenol metabolism, respectively, and we show their activities are present in LD fractions. Our results provide a highly specific list of yeast LD proteins and reveal that the vast majority of these proteins are involved in lipid metabolism. Copyright © 2014 by the American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

  7. OB/GYN boot cAMP using high-fidelity human simulators: enhancing residents' perceived competency, confidence in taking a leadership role, and stress hardiness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pliego, Jose F; Wehbe-Janek, Hania; Rajab, M Hasan; Browning, Jeff L; Fothergill, Russell E

    2008-01-01

    To evaluate the effectiveness of an obstetrical and gynecologic (Ob/Gyn) Boot Camp simulation training on perceived technical competency, confidence in a leadership role, and stress hardiness of resident training. We conducted a prospective pilot study on the effectiveness of an Ob/Gyn Boot Camp on resident training. Residents participated in an intensive immersion in clinical simulation of common obstetrical emergencies including shoulder dystocia, neonatal resuscitation, postpartum hemorrhage, and ruptured ectopic pregnancy. After the training, residents completed a Web-based survey on their perceptions of how the Ob/Gyn Boot Camp affected their 1) technical competency in the assessment and management of their patients, 2) confidence in taking a leadership role, and 3) stress hardiness. Residents rated their perceptions on a Likert scale of 1 to 5, 1 = poor to 5 = excellent. Twenty-three (14 Ob/Gyn and 9 family medicine) residents participated in this pilot study. Eighteen (78%) residents completed the online survey; 4 Ob/Gyn and 1 family medicine resident did not complete the survey. The residents reported that the simulation training stimulated an interest in learning key skills for obstetrical and gynecologic emergencies. Ob/Gyn residents reported significant improvement in their perceived technical competence and stress hardiness after the Boot Camp. However both Ob/Gyn and family medicine residents reported no significant improvement of confidence in their leadership abilities during obstetrical emergencies after the Boot Camp. Boot Camp simulation training early in the curriculum has the potential for enhancing residents' self-assessments of confidence, competency, and stress hardiness in managing obstetrical emergencies.

  8. Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A

    2018-02-01

    Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.

  9. A web-based survey of erection hardness score and its relationship to aging, sexual behavior, confidence, and risk factors in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Masaki; Shimura, Satoru; Tai, Toshihiro; Kobayashi, Hideyuki; Baba, Shiro; Kano, Munehide; Nagao, Koichi

    2013-12-01

    Erection hardness is an elemental component of men's sexual quality of life that can be easily measured by the Erection Hardness Score (EHS). However, there are few published data regarding EHS, and there is little understanding of its relationships to aging, men's sexual behavior, sexual confidence, and risk factors in Japan. To assess EHS and how it correlates to aging, sexual behaviors, sexual self-confidence, and risk factors in a Japanese population database. A web-based cross-sectional nationwide survey conducted between March and May 2009 in Japan. EHS, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, general health, sexual confidence, frequency of sexual behaviors, and attitudes toward treatment of erectile dysfunction (ED). A total of 7,710 men with a mean age of 39.3 ± 13.0 years participated in this survey. In 6,528 participants who were not using phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors, 3,540 (54.2%) had EHS ≤ 3 and 1,196 (18.3%) had EHS ≤ 2. We found a significant age-dependent decrease in EHS, sexual confidence, and frequency of sexual activities. Sexual confidence was strongly associated with higher EHS but was also associated with older age groups, presence of offspring, awareness of better general health, and greater frequency of sexual activity. In age-adjusted multivariate logistic regression, risk factors for a lower EHS (defined as EHS ≤ 2) were heavy smoking, which was defined as more than two packs per day (odds ratio [OR], 1.7) or a history of metabolic syndrome (OR, 1.4), hypertension (OR, 1.2), and diabetes mellitus (OR, 1.4). EHS correlates to various elements, such as aging, sexual behaviors, sexual confidence, and ED-related risk factors, and can be a valuable tool in clinical practice for monitoring and treating ED and thereby improving the quality of life for men and their sexual partners. Kimura M, Shimura S, Tai T, Kobayashi H, Baba S, Kano M, and Nagao K. A web-based survey of Erection Hardness Score and its relationship to aging, sexual

  10. Raising Confident Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... First Aid & Safety Doctors & Hospitals Videos Recipes for Kids Kids site Sitio para niños How the Body ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Raising Confident Kids KidsHealth / For Parents / Raising Confident Kids What's in ...

  11. A high-confidence interaction map identifies SIRT1 as a mediator of acetylation of USP22 and the SAGA coactivator complex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, Sean M; Bennett, Eric J; Braun, Craig R; Zhang, Xiao-Yong; McMahon, Steven B; Gygi, Steven P; Harper, J Wade; Sinclair, David A

    2013-04-01

    Although many functions and targets have been attributed to the histone and protein deacetylase SIRT1, a comprehensive analysis of SIRT1 binding proteins yielding a high-confidence interaction map has not been established. Using a comparative statistical analysis of binding partners, we have assembled a high-confidence SIRT1 interactome. Employing this method, we identified the deubiquitinating enzyme ubiquitin-specific protease 22 (USP22), a component of the deubiquitinating module (DUBm) of the SAGA transcriptional coactivating complex, as a SIRT1-interacting partner. We found that this interaction is highly specific, requires the ZnF-UBP domain of USP22, and is disrupted by the inactivating H363Y mutation within SIRT1. Moreover, we show that USP22 is acetylated on multiple lysine residues and that alteration of a single lysine (K129) within the ZnF-UBP domain is sufficient to alter interaction of the DUBm with the core SAGA complex. Furthermore, USP22-mediated recruitment of SIRT1 activity promotes the deacetylation of individual SAGA complex components. Our results indicate an important role of SIRT1-mediated deacetylation in regulating the formation of DUBm subcomplexes within the larger SAGA complex.

  12. On the Prevalence of Alternative Conceptions on Acid-Base Chemistry among Secondary Students: Insights from Cognitive and Confidence Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoe, Kai Yee; Subramaniam, R.

    2016-01-01

    This study presents an analysis of alternative conceptions (ACs) on acid--base chemistry harbored by grade 9 students in Singapore. The ACs were obtained by the development and validation of a 4-tier diagnostic instrument. It is among the very few studies in the science education literature that have focused on examining results based also on…

  13. The effect of a supervised community-based exercise program on balance, balance confidence, and gait in individuals with lower limb amputation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Carol A; Williams, Jennifer E; Durham, Katey L; Hom, Selena C; Smith, Julie L

    2017-10-01

    Many individuals with lower limb loss report concern with walking ability after completing structured traditional rehabilitation. The purpose of this study was to explore the impact of a supervised community-based exercise program on balance, balance confidence, and gait in individuals with lower limb amputation. Repeated measures. The supervised exercise program was offered biweekly for 6 weeks. The GAITRite System by CIR Systems, Inc., the Figure-of-8 Walk Test, and Activity-specific Balance Confidence Scale were used to measure clinical outcomes pre- and post-intervention. In total, 16 participants with lower limb amputation (mean age: 50.8 years) completed the study. A multivariate, repeated measures analysis of variance indicated a statistically significant effect of training across six clinical outcome measures ( F(6, 10) = 4.514, p = .018). Moderate effect sizes were found for the Figure-of-8 Walk Test ( η 2 = .586), Activity-specific Balance Confidence Scale ( η 2 = .504), and gait velocity at comfortable walking speed ( η 2 = .574). The average increase in gait speed was clinically meaningful at .14 m/s. The supervised community-based exercise program implemented in this study was designed to address specific functional needs for individuals with lower limb loss. Each participant experienced clinically meaningful improvements in balance, balance confidence, and walking ability. Clinical relevance The provision of a supervised community-based exercise program, after traditional rehabilitation, provides opportunity to offer a continuum of care that may enhance prosthetic functional ability and active participation in the community for individuals with lower limb amputation.

  14. Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    simulate a strong decrease in future long term annual precipitation, the dynamical DAs simulate a tendency towards increasing precipitation. The trend analysis suggests that precipitation has not changed significantly during the period 1961-2006. Therefore, the decrease simulated by the statistical DAs should be interpreted as a rather dry future projection. Concerning air temperature, measured and simulated trends agree on a positive trend. Also the uncertainty related to the hydrological model within the climate change modelling chain is comparably low when long-term averages are considered but increases significantly during extreme events. This proposed framework of combining an ensemble based modelling approach with measured trend analysis is a promising approach for regional stakeholders to gain more confidence into the final results of climate change impact assessments. However, climate change impact assessments will remain highly uncertain. Thus, flexible adaptation strategies need to be developed which should not only consider climate but also other aspects of global change.

  15. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  16. Communicating Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk, Uncertainty and Expert Confidence: Induced Seismicity of Deep Geothermal Energy and Shale Gas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoblauch, Theresa A K; Stauffacher, Michael; Trutnevyte, Evelina

    2018-04-01

    Subsurface energy activities entail the risk of induced seismicity including low-probability high-consequence (LPHC) events. For designing respective risk communication, the scientific literature lacks empirical evidence of how the public reacts to different written risk communication formats about such LPHC events and to related uncertainty or expert confidence. This study presents findings from an online experiment (N = 590) that empirically tested the public's responses to risk communication about induced seismicity and to different technology frames, namely deep geothermal energy (DGE) and shale gas (between-subject design). Three incrementally different formats of written risk communication were tested: (i) qualitative, (ii) qualitative and quantitative, and (iii) qualitative and quantitative with risk comparison. Respondents found the latter two the easiest to understand, the most exact, and liked them the most. Adding uncertainty and expert confidence statements made the risk communication less clear, less easy to understand and increased concern. Above all, the technology for which risks are communicated and its acceptance mattered strongly: respondents in the shale gas condition found the identical risk communication less trustworthy and more concerning than in the DGE conditions. They also liked the risk communication overall less. For practitioners in DGE or shale gas projects, the study shows that the public would appreciate efforts in describing LPHC risks with numbers and optionally risk comparisons. However, there seems to be a trade-off between aiming for transparency by disclosing uncertainty and limited expert confidence, and thereby decreasing clarity and increasing concern in the view of the public. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Self-Reported Student Confidence in Troubleshooting Ability Increases after Completion of an Inquiry-Based PCR Practical

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Anthony L.; Snow, Elizabeth T.; Binns, Henrica; Cook, Peta S.

    2015-01-01

    Inquiry-based learning (IBL) activities are complementary to the processes of laboratory discovery, as both are focused on producing new findings through research and inquiry. Here, we describe the results of student surveys taken pre- and postpractical to an IBL undergraduate practical on PCR. Our analysis focuses primarily student perceptions of…

  18. Teaching evidence-based practice (EBP) to speech-language therapy students : are students competent and confident EBP users?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N. van Dijk; B. Spek; M Wieringa-de Waard; C. Lucas

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The importance and value of the principles of evidence-based practice (EBP) in the decision-making process is recognized by speech-language therapists (SLTs) worldwide and as a result curricula for speech-language therapy students incorporated EBP principles. However, the willingness

  19. Teaching evidence-based practice (EBP) to speech-language therapy students: are students competent and confident EBP users?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spek, B.; Wieringa-de Waard, M.; Lucas, C.; van Dijk, N.

    2013-01-01

    The importance and value of the principles of evidence-based practice (EBP) in the decision-making process is recognized by speech-language therapists (SLTs) worldwide and as a result curricula for speech-language therapy students incorporated EBP principles. However, the willingness actually to use

  20. Derivation of confidence intervals of service measures in a base-stock inventory control system with low-frequent demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian

    We explore a base-stock system with backlogging where the demand process is a compound renewal process and the compound element is a delayed geometric distribution. For this setting it is proven in [4] that the long-run average service measures order fill rate (OFR) and volume fill rate (VFR) are...

  1. Derivation of confidence intervals of service measures in a base-stock inventory control system with low-frequent demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian

    2011-01-01

    We explore a base-stock system with backlogging where the demand process is a compound renewal process and the compound element is a delayed geometric distribution. For this setting it holds that the long-run average service measures order fill rate (OFR) and volume fill rate (VFR) are equal in v...

  2. Attitude and confidence of undergraduate medical programme educators to practice and teach evidence-based healthcare: a cross-sectional survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Taryn; Esterhuizen, Tonya M; Volmink, Jimmy; Clarke, Mike

    2016-06-01

    Medical student educators play critical roles in evidence-based healthcare (EBHC) teaching and learning and as role models practicing EBHC. This study assessed their confidence to practice and teach EBHC, their attitude to EBHC and barriers to practicing and teaching EBHC. We conducted a cross-sectional online survey of educators of undergraduate medical students at a South African academic institution. STATA 12 was used for quantitative data analysis. Responses to open-ended questions were coded, and further interpretation done using thematic content analysis. Forty two (19%) educators from various departments responded to the invitation sent to everyone formally involved in teaching undergraduate medical students. They had high levels of knowledge and understanding of EBHC. Many had received training in teaching and learning approaches, although EBHC training received was mainly on enabling competencies. Limitations to practicing EBHC included lack of time, clinical workload, limited access to Internet and resources, knowledge and skills. One quarter of the respondents indicated that they teach EBHC. Perceived barriers to teaching EBHC reported related to students (e.g. lack of interest), context (e.g. access to databases) and educators (e.g. competing priorities). Respondents' suggestions for support included reliable Internet access, easy point-of-care access to databases and resources, increasing awareness of EBHC, building capacity to practice and facilitate learning of EBHC and a supportive community of practice. Educators play a critical role in facilitating EBHC learning not just in the classroom, but also in practice. Without adequate support, training and development, they are ill equipped to be the role models future healthcare professionals need.

  3. Professional confidence: a concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana

    2012-03-01

    Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.

  4. The Effects of Smartphone-based Nebulizer Therapy Education on Parents' Knowledge and Confidence of Performance in Caring for Children with Respiratory Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jung Min; Kim, Shin-Jeong; Min, Hae Young

    This study aimed to identify the effects of smartphone-based nebulizer therapy education on the knowledge and confidence of parents while performing care for their children with respiratory disease. This quasi-experimental study employed a pretest-posttest design using a nonequivalent control group. Data were collected from children's parents who had not used nebulizer therapy for their children previously. Both the groups were given nebulizer therapy education using the same content but different learning methods. The experimental group (n=36) was taught using smartphones, while the control group (n=36) was taught using verbal and paper-based methods. The data were analyzed using the Chi Square test, repeated measures analysis of variance, and t-test. The mean scores on knowledge improvement (F=100.949, psmartphone-based education on nebulizer therapy might be effective in improving parents' knowledge and confidence in performing care for their children. This study suggests that smartphone-based education needs to be considered as an effective educational intervention in providing nursing support for parents of children with respiratory disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. The Model Confidence Set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.

    The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The MCS......, beyond the comparison of models. We apply the MCS procedure to two empirical problems. First, we revisit the inflation forecasting problem posed by Stock and Watson (1999), and compute the MCS for their set of inflation forecasts. Second, we compare a number of Taylor rule regressions and determine...... the MCS of the best in terms of in-sample likelihood criteria....

  6. Confidence Building Strategies in the Public Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achilles, C. M.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Data from the Phi Delta Kappa Commission on Public Confidence in Education indicate that "high-confidence" schools make greater use of marketing and public relations strategies. Teacher attitudes were ranked first and administrator attitudes second by 409 respondents for both gain and loss of confidence in schools. (MLF)

  7. Transition Services: An Investigation of the Knowledge, Confidence, and Practice of Special Education Teachers in District of Columbia Public Charter High Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Wallace R., III

    2015-01-01

    This study was intended to enhance the limited research on the knowledge and confidence of special education teachers in public education regarding transition services and the quality of transition plans they develop. The key variables examined in this study are knowledge, confidence, and the quality of student transition plans. The sample…

  8. The impact of a community-based food skills intervention on cooking confidence, food preparation methods and dietary choices - an exploratory trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrieden, Wendy L; Anderson, Annie S; Longbottom, Pat J; Valentine, Karen; Stead, Martine; Caraher, Martin; Lang, Tim; Gray, Bill; Dowler, Elizabeth

    2007-02-01

    To evaluate the feasibility of undertaking a food skills intervention study in areas of social deprivation aimed at altering cooking confidence, food preparation methods and dietary choices. A standardised skills programme was implemented in community-based settings. Pre- (T1) and post-intervention (T2) and 6-month follow-up (T3) measures (7-day diaries and self-administered questionnaires) were undertaken in intervention and comparison groups. Eight urban communities in Scotland. One hundred and thirteen adults living in areas of social deprivation. It was clear that many subjects led fragmented lives and found commitment to intervention classes problematic. Sixty-three subjects completed the final (T3) assessments. The response to each component varied due to inability to attend sessions, illness, study requirements, employment, moving out of the area, change in circumstances, loss of interest and loss of postal questionnaires. At baseline, reported consumption of fruit and vegetables was low (mean frequency 8.1 +/- 4.78 times per week). Fruit intake increased significantly (P food skills intervention is likely to have a small but positive effect on food choice and confidence in food preparation. A full-scale randomised controlled trial in this hard-to-reach group would require a range of flexible approaches rather than a fully defined intervention, and presents challenges for trial design.

  9. Assessment of cartilage-dedicated sequences at ultra-high-field MRI: comparison of imaging performance and diagnostic confidence between 3.0 and 7.0 T with respect to osteoarthritis-induced changes at the knee joint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stahl, Robert [University of California, Musculoskeletal and Quantitative Imaging Group, Department of Radiology, San Francisco, CA (United States); University Hospitals - Campus Grosshadern, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Department of Clinical Radiology, Munich (Germany); Krug, Roland; Zuo, Jin; Majumdar, Sharmila; Link, Thomas M. [University of California, Musculoskeletal and Quantitative Imaging Group, Department of Radiology, San Francisco, CA (United States); Kelley, Douglas A.C. [General Electrics Healthcare Technologies, San Francisco, CA (United States); Ma, C.B. [University of California, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, San Francisco, CA (United States)

    2009-08-15

    The objectives of the study were to optimize three cartilage-dedicated sequences for in vivo knee imaging at 7.0 T ultra-high-field (UHF) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to compare imaging performance and diagnostic confidence concerning osteoarthritis (OA)-induced changes at 7.0 and 3.0 T MRI. Optimized MRI sequences for cartilage imaging at 3.0 T were tailored for 7.0 T: an intermediate-weighted fast spin-echo (IM-w FSE), a fast imaging employing steady-state acquisition (FIESTA) and a T1-weighted 3D high-spatial-resolution volumetric fat-suppressed spoiled gradient-echo (SPGR) sequence. Three healthy subjects and seven patients with mild OA were examined. Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), diagnostic confidence in assessing cartilage abnormalities, and image quality were determined. Abnormalities were assessed with the whole organ magnetic resonance imaging score (WORMS). Focal cartilage lesions and bone marrow edema pattern (BMEP) were also quantified. At 7.0 T, SNR was increased (p<0.05) for all sequences. For the IM-w FSE sequence, limitations with the specific absorption rate (SAR) required modifications of the scan parameters yielding an incomplete coverage of the knee joint, extensive artifacts, and a less effective fat saturation. CNR and image quality were increased (p<0.05) for SPGR and FIESTA and decreased for IM-w FSE. Diagnostic confidence for cartilage lesions was highest (p<0.05) for FIESTA at 7.0 T. Evaluation of BMEP was decreased (p < 0.05) at 7.0 T due to limited performance of IM-w FSE. Gradient echo-based pulse sequences like SPGR and FIESTA are well suited for imaging at UHF which may improve early detection of cartilage lesions. However, UHF IM-w FSE sequences are less feasible for clinical use. (orig.)

  10. Assessment of cartilage-dedicated sequences at ultra-high-field MRI: comparison of imaging performance and diagnostic confidence between 3.0 and 7.0 T with respect to osteoarthritis-induced changes at the knee joint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stahl, Robert; Krug, Roland; Zuo, Jin; Majumdar, Sharmila; Link, Thomas M.; Kelley, Douglas A.C.; Ma, C.B.

    2009-01-01

    The objectives of the study were to optimize three cartilage-dedicated sequences for in vivo knee imaging at 7.0 T ultra-high-field (UHF) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to compare imaging performance and diagnostic confidence concerning osteoarthritis (OA)-induced changes at 7.0 and 3.0 T MRI. Optimized MRI sequences for cartilage imaging at 3.0 T were tailored for 7.0 T: an intermediate-weighted fast spin-echo (IM-w FSE), a fast imaging employing steady-state acquisition (FIESTA) and a T1-weighted 3D high-spatial-resolution volumetric fat-suppressed spoiled gradient-echo (SPGR) sequence. Three healthy subjects and seven patients with mild OA were examined. Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), diagnostic confidence in assessing cartilage abnormalities, and image quality were determined. Abnormalities were assessed with the whole organ magnetic resonance imaging score (WORMS). Focal cartilage lesions and bone marrow edema pattern (BMEP) were also quantified. At 7.0 T, SNR was increased (p<0.05) for all sequences. For the IM-w FSE sequence, limitations with the specific absorption rate (SAR) required modifications of the scan parameters yielding an incomplete coverage of the knee joint, extensive artifacts, and a less effective fat saturation. CNR and image quality were increased (p<0.05) for SPGR and FIESTA and decreased for IM-w FSE. Diagnostic confidence for cartilage lesions was highest (p<0.05) for FIESTA at 7.0 T. Evaluation of BMEP was decreased (p < 0.05) at 7.0 T due to limited performance of IM-w FSE. Gradient echo-based pulse sequences like SPGR and FIESTA are well suited for imaging at UHF which may improve early detection of cartilage lesions. However, UHF IM-w FSE sequences are less feasible for clinical use. (orig.)

  11. Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test at a fixed level of specificity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gengsheng Qin; Davis, Angela E; Jing, Bing-Yi

    2011-06-01

    For a continuous-scale diagnostic test, it is often of interest to find the range of the sensitivity of the test at the cut-off that yields a desired specificity. In this article, we first define a profile empirical likelihood ratio for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test and show that its limiting distribution is a scaled chi-square distribution. We then propose two new empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of the test at a fixed level of specificity by using the scaled chi-square distribution. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the finite sample performance of the newly proposed intervals with the existing intervals for the sensitivity in terms of coverage probability. A real example is used to illustrate the application of the recommended methods.

  12. Methodology for building confidence measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramson, Aaron L.

    2004-04-01

    This paper presents a generalized methodology for propagating known or estimated levels of individual source document truth reliability to determine the confidence level of a combined output. Initial document certainty levels are augmented by (i) combining the reliability measures of multiply sources, (ii) incorporating the truth reinforcement of related elements, and (iii) incorporating the importance of the individual elements for determining the probability of truth for the whole. The result is a measure of confidence in system output based on the establishing of links among the truth values of inputs. This methodology was developed for application to a multi-component situation awareness tool under development at the Air Force Research Laboratory in Rome, New York. Determining how improvements in data quality and the variety of documents collected affect the probability of a correct situational detection helps optimize the performance of the tool overall.

  13. GPs' knowledge, use, and confidence in national physical activity and health guidelines and tools: a questionnaire-based survey of general practice in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Robin; Chapman, Tim; Brannan, Mike Gt; Varney, Justin

    2017-10-01

    Physical activity (PA) brief advice in health care is effective at getting individuals active. It has been suggested that one in four people would be more active if advised by a GP or nurse, but as many as 72% of GPs do not discuss the benefits of physical activity with patients. To assess the knowledge, use, and confidence in national PA and Chief Medical Officer (CMO) health guidelines and tools among GPs in England. Online questionnaire-based survey of self-selecting GPs in England that took place over a 10-day period in March 2016. The questionnaire consisted of six multiple-choice questions and was available on the Doctors.net.uk (DNUK) homepage. Quotas were used to ensure good regional representation. The final analysis included 1013 responses. Only 20% of responders were broadly or very familiar with the national PA guidelines. In all, 70% of GPs were aware of the General Practice Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPPAQ), but 26% were not familiar with any PA assessment tools, and 55% reported that they had not undertaken any training with respect to encouraging PA. The majority of GPs in England (80%) are unfamiliar with the national PA guidelines. Awareness of the recommended tool for assessment, GPPAQ, is higher than use by GPs. This may be because it is used by other clinical staff, for example, as part of the NHS Health Check programme. Although brief advice in isolation by GPs on PA will only be a part of the behaviour change journey, it is an important prompt, especially if repeated as part of routine practice. This study highlights the need for significant improvement in knowledge, skills, and confidence to maximise the potential for PA advice in GP consultations. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

  14. Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Le Heron

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.

  15. Globalization of consumer confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Çelik Sadullah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The globalization of world economies and the importance of nowcasting analysis have been at the core of the recent literature. Nevertheless, these two strands of research are hardly coupled. This study aims to fill this gap through examining the globalization of the consumer confidence index (CCI by applying conventional and unconventional econometric methods. The US CCI is used as the benchmark in tests of comovement among the CCIs of several developing and developed countries, with the data sets divided into three sub-periods: global liquidity abundance, the Great Recession, and postcrisis. The existence and/or degree of globalization of the CCIs vary according to the period, whereas globalization in the form of coherence and similar paths is observed only during the Great Recession and, surprisingly, stronger in developing/emerging countries.

  16. We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

    2016-12-01

    The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence

  18. Space Based Infrared System High (SBIRS High)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    elements (five SMGTs) for the S2E2 Mobile Ground System. ​ SBIRS Block Buy (GEO 5-6) The GEO 5-6 Tech Refresh (TR) Engineering Change Proposal was...Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) RCS: DD-A&T(Q&A)823-210 Space Based Infrared System High ( SBIRS High) As of FY 2017 President’s Budget Defense...Acquisition Management Information Retrieval (DAMIR) March 23, 2016 11:24:26 UNCLASSIFIED SBIRS High December 2015 SAR March 23, 2016 11:24:26

  19. Towards confidence in transport safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robison, R.W.

    1992-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) plans to demonstrate to the public that high-level waste can be transported safely to the proposed repository. The author argues US DOE should begin now to demonstrate its commitment to safety by developing an extraordinary safety program for nuclear cargo it is now shipping. The program for current shipments should be developed with State, Tribal, and local officials. Social scientists should be involved in evaluating the effect of the safety program on public confidence. The safety program developed in cooperation with western states for shipments to the Waste Isolation Pilot plant is a good basis for designing that extraordinary safety program

  20. Consumer confidence or the business cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low...

  1. How “consistent” is “consistent”? A clinician-based assessment of the reliability of expressions used by radiologists to communicate diagnostic confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenkrantz, A.B.; Kiritsy, M.; Kim, S.

    2014-01-01

    Aim: To evaluate the degree of variability in clinicians' interpretation of expressions used by radiologists to communicate their level of diagnostic confidence within radiological reports. Materials and methods: Clinicians were solicited to complete a prospective survey asking them to select the approximate perceived level of certainty, expressed as a percentage, associated with 20 expressions used by radiologists to communicate their level of diagnostic confidence within radiological reports. The median and inter-decile range (IDR) were computed for each expression, with a smaller IDR indicating greater reproducibility. Clinicians were also asked questions regarding their attitudes about radiologists' communication of diagnostic confidence. Results: Forty-nine surveys were completed. Median confidence associated with the expressions ranged from 10–90%. Reproducibility of the expressions was variable, as IDR ranged from 15–53%, although a median IDR of 40% indicated overall poor reproducibility. Expressions with relatively higher reproducibility included “most likely”, “likely”, and “unlikely” (IDR 15–20%), whereas expressions with relatively lower reproducibility included “compatible with”, “suspicious for”, “possibly,” and “can be seen in the setting of” (IDR ≥45%). Only 20% of clinicians agreed or strongly agreed that radiologists consistently use such expressions within their reports. Fifty-five percent of clinicians preferred that diagnostic confidence be communicated as a percentage rather than as a textual expression. Conclusion: There was poor reproducibility in clinicians' interpretations of many expressions used by radiologists to communicate their level of diagnostic confidence. Use of percentages to convey diagnostic confidence within reports may mitigate this source of ambiguity in radiologists' communication with clinicians. - Highlights: • Clinicians recorded certainty associated with

  2. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-06-01

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

  3. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-12-15

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

  4. Food skills confidence and household gatekeepers' dietary practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Melissa; Reid, Mike; Worsley, Anthony; Mavondo, Felix

    2017-01-01

    Household food gatekeepers have the potential to influence the food attitudes and behaviours of family members, as they are mainly responsible for food-related tasks in the home. The aim of this study was to determine the role of gatekeepers' confidence in food-related skills and nutrition knowledge on food practices in the home. An online survey was completed by 1059 Australian dietary gatekeepers selected from the Global Market Insite (GMI) research database. Participants responded to questions about food acquisition and preparation behaviours, the home eating environment, perceptions and attitudes towards food, and demographics. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify groups based on confidence regarding food skills and nutrition knowledge. Chi-square tests and one-way ANOVAs were used to compare the groups on the dependent variables. Three groups were identified: low confidence, moderate confidence and high confidence. Gatekeepers in the highest confidence group were significantly more likely to report lower body mass index (BMI), and indicate higher importance of fresh food products, vegetable prominence in meals, product information use, meal planning, perceived behavioural control and overall diet satisfaction. Gatekeepers in the lowest confidence group were significantly more likely to indicate more perceived barriers to healthy eating, report more time constraints and more impulse purchasing practices, and higher convenience ingredient use. Other smaller associations were also found. Household food gatekeepers with high food skills confidence were more likely to engage in several healthy food practices, while those with low food skills confidence were more likely to engage in unhealthy food practices. Food education strategies aimed at building food-skills and nutrition knowledge will enable current and future gatekeepers to make healthier food decisions for themselves and for their families. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Fostering English Learners' Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondie, Rhonda; Gaughran, Laurie; Zusho, Akane

    2014-01-01

    A teacher is doing something right when his high school students--kids with limited English, no less--form groups and begin discussing a lesson on quadratic equations at the start of class, without any teacher direction. Bondie, Gaughran, and Zusho describe "discussion routines" that teachers at International Community High School in the…

  6. Perceived confidence, competence and training in evidence-based treatments for eating disorders: a survey of clinicians in an Australian regional health service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakeman, Richard; McIntosh, Christine

    2018-03-01

    Eating disorders (EDs) are challenging to treat and contribute to considerable morbidity and mortality. This study sought to identify the educational preparedness, competence and confidence of clinicians to work with people with EDs; and to identify how services might be improved. Clinicians who worked in the emergency department, medical, paediatric wards and mental health services were invited to complete an online survey. From the 136 surveys returned, 73% of respondents reported little or no confidence working with EDs. There was a strong linear correlation between perceived confidence and competence and hours of education. Those with 70 or more hours of self-reported training were 2.7 times more likely to rate themselves as both confident and competent. Improving services for people with eating disorders included the provision of appropriate training, improving access to services including psychotherapy, and facilitating consistency in and continuity of care. To increase the confidence and competence of the workforce, regular training around EDs should be undertaken. The establishment of a specialist team to provide services across the continuum of care for people with severe or complex EDs appears warranted in a regional health service.

  7. Confidence in Alternative Dispute Resolution: Experience from Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christof Schwenkel

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Alternative Dispute Resolution plays a crucial role in the justice system of Switzerland. With the unified Swiss Code of Civil Procedure, it is required that each litigation session shall be preceded by an attempt at conciliation before a conciliation authority. However, there has been little research on conciliation authorities and the public's perception of the authorities. This paper looks at public confidence in conciliation authorities and provides results of a survey conducted with more than 3,400 participants. This study found that public confidence in Swiss conciliation authorities is generally high, exceeds the ratings for confidence in cantonal governments and parliaments, but is lower than confidence in courts.Since the institutional models of the conciliation authorities (meaning the organization of the authorities and the selection of the conciliators differ widely between the 26 Swiss cantons, the influence of the institutional models on public confidence is analyzed. Contrary to assumptions based on New Institutional-ism approaches, this study reports that the institutional models do not impact public confidence. Also, the relationship between a participation in an election of justices of the peace or conciliators and public confidence in these authorities is found to be at most very limited (and negative. Similar to common findings on courts, the results show that general contacts with conciliation authorities decrease public confidence in these institutions whereas a positive experience with a conciliation authority leads to more confidence.The Study was completed as part of the research project 'Basic Research into Court Management in Switzerland', supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF. Christof Schwenkel is a PhD student at the University of Lucerne and a research associate and project manager at Interface Policy Studies. A first version of this article was presented at the 2013 European Group for Public

  8. Workshop on confidence limits. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, F.; Lyons, L.; Perrin, Y.

    2000-01-01

    The First Workshop on Confidence Limits was held at CERN on 17-18 January 2000. It was devoted to the problem of setting confidence limits in difficult cases: number of observed events is small or zero, background is larger than signal, background not well known, and measurements near a physical boundary. Among the many examples in high-energy physics are searches for the Higgs, searches for neutrino oscillations, B s mixing, SUSY, compositeness, neutrino masses, and dark matter. Several different methods are on the market: the CL s methods used by the LEP Higgs searches; Bayesian methods; Feldman-Cousins and modifications thereof; empirical and combined methods. The Workshop generated considerable interest, and attendance was finally limited by the seating capacity of the CERN Council Chamber where all the sessions took place. These proceedings contain all the papers presented, as well as the full text of the discussions after each paper and of course the last session which was a discussion session. The list of participants and the 'required reading', which was expected to be part of the prior knowledge of all participants, are also included. (orig.)

  9. The idiosyncratic nature of confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navajas, Joaquin; Hindocha, Chandni; Foda, Hebah; Keramati, Mehdi; Latham, Peter E; Bahrami, Bahador

    2017-11-01

    Confidence is the 'feeling of knowing' that accompanies decision making. Bayesian theory proposes that confidence is a function solely of the perceived probability of being correct. Empirical research has suggested, however, that different individuals may perform different computations to estimate confidence from uncertain evidence. To test this hypothesis, we collected confidence reports in a task where subjects made categorical decisions about the mean of a sequence. We found that for most individuals, confidence did indeed reflect the perceived probability of being correct. However, in approximately half of them, confidence also reflected a different probabilistic quantity: the perceived uncertainty in the estimated variable. We found that the contribution of both quantities was stable over weeks. We also observed that the influence of the perceived probability of being correct was stable across two tasks, one perceptual and one cognitive. Overall, our findings provide a computational interpretation of individual differences in human confidence.

  10. Automated and high confidence protein phosphorylation site localization using complementary collision-activated dissociation and electron transfer dissociation tandem mass spectrometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Thomas A; Sylvester, Marc; Jensen, Ole N

    2012-01-01

    -site localization and the number of assigned phospho-sites at a fixed false-localization rate. The average calculated Cscore from a large data set (>7000 phosphopeptide MS/MS spectra) was ∼32 compared to ∼23 and ∼17 for the Ascore using collision-activated dissociation (CAD) or electron transfer dissociation (ETD...... peptide fragmentation and the loss of labile phosphate groups complicate identification of the site of the phosphate motif. Here, we have implemented and evaluated a novel approach for phospho-site localization by the combined use of peptide tandem mass spectrometry data obtained using both collision......-activated dissociation and electron transfer dissociation, an approach termed the Cscore. The scoring algorithm used in the Cscore was adapted from the widely used Ascore method. The analytical benefit of integrating the product ion information of both ETD and CAD data are evident by increased confidence in phospho...

  11. Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2011-01-01

    of the 'value' of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. Such secondary assessment of confidence represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision and ultimately a tool for improving or targeting actions to improve the health......This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...

  12. Confidence bands for inverse regression models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birke, Melanie; Bissantz, Nicolai; Holzmann, Hajo

    2010-01-01

    We construct uniform confidence bands for the regression function in inverse, homoscedastic regression models with convolution-type operators. Here, the convolution is between two non-periodic functions on the whole real line rather than between two periodic functions on a compact interval, since the former situation arguably arises more often in applications. First, following Bickel and Rosenblatt (1973 Ann. Stat. 1 1071–95) we construct asymptotic confidence bands which are based on strong approximations and on a limit theorem for the supremum of a stationary Gaussian process. Further, we propose bootstrap confidence bands based on the residual bootstrap and prove consistency of the bootstrap procedure. A simulation study shows that the bootstrap confidence bands perform reasonably well for moderate sample sizes. Finally, we apply our method to data from a gel electrophoresis experiment with genetically engineered neuronal receptor subunits incubated with rat brain extract

  13. Diverse interpretations of confidence building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macintosh, J.

    1998-01-01

    This paper explores the variety of operational understandings associated with the term 'confidence building'. Collectively, these understandings constitute what should be thought of as a 'family' of confidence building approaches. This unacknowledged and generally unappreciated proliferation of operational understandings that function under the rubric of confidence building appears to be an impediment to effective policy. The paper's objective is to analyze these different understandings, stressing the important differences in their underlying assumptions. In the process, the paper underlines the need for the international community to clarify its collective thinking about what it means when it speaks of 'confidence building'. Without enhanced clarity, it will be unnecessarily difficult to employ the confidence building approach effectively due to the lack of consistent objectives and common operating assumptions. Although it is not the intention of this paper to promote a particular account of confidence building, dissecting existing operational understandings should help to identify whether there are fundamental elements that define what might be termed 'authentic' confidence building. Implicit here is the view that some operational understandings of confidence building may diverge too far from consensus models to count as meaningful members of the confidence building family. (author)

  14. Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

  15. A Probabilistic Tool that Aids Logistics Engineers in the Establishment of High Confidence Repair Need-Dates at the NASA Shuttle Logistics Depot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bullington, J. V.; Winkler, J. C.; Linton, D. G.; Khajenoori, S.

    1995-01-01

    The NASA Shuttle Logistics Depot (NSLD) is tasked with the responsibility for repair and manufacture of Line Replaceable Unit (LRU) hardware and components to support the Space Shuttle Orbiter. Due to shrinking budgets, cost effective repair of LRU's becomes a primary objective. To achieve this objective, is imperative that resources be assigned to those LRU's which have the greatest expectation of being needed as a spare. Forecasting the times at which spares are needed requires consideration of many significant factors including: failure rate, flight rate, spares availability, and desired level of support, among others. This paper summarizes the results of the research and development work that has been accomplished in producing an automated tool that assists in the assignment of effective repair start-times for LRU's at the NSLD. This system, called the Repair Start-time Assessment System (RSAS), uses probabilistic modeling technology to calculate a need date for a repair that considers the current repair pipeline status, as well as, serviceable spares and projections of future demands. The output from the system is a date for beginning the repair that has significantly greater confidence (in the sense that a desired probability of support is ensured) than times produced using other techniques. Since an important output of RSAS is the longest repair turn-around time that will ensure a desired probability of support, RSAS has the potential for being applied to operations at any repair depot where spares are on-hand and repair start-times are of interest. In addition, RSAS incorporates tenants of Just-in-Time (JIT) techniques in that the latest repair start-time (i.e., the latest time at which repair resources must be committed) may be calculated for every failed unit This could reduce the spares inventory for certain items, without significantly increasing the risk of unsatisfied demand.

  16. A View from the Inside: An In-Depth Look at a Female University Student's Experience with a Feel-Based Intervention to Enhance Self-Confidence and Self-Talk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerin, Eva; Arcand, Isabelle; Durand-Bush, Natalie

    2010-01-01

    The primary goal of this investigation was to document, using the participatory paradigm, a female university student's experience with a feel-based intervention intended to enhance the quality of her academic experiences including her self-confidence and self-talk. In this unique qualitative case study, the student participated in a 15-week…

  17. Clustering consumers based on trust, confidence and giving behaviour: data-driven model building for charitable involvement in the Australian not-for-profit sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Natalie Jane; Reis, Rodrigo; Moscato, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    Organisations in the Not-for-Profit and charity sector face increasing competition to win time, money and efforts from a common donor base. Consequently, these organisations need to be more proactive than ever. The increased level of communications between individuals and organisations today, heightens the need for investigating the drivers of charitable giving and understanding the various consumer groups, or donor segments, within a population. It is contended that `trust' is the cornerstone of the not-for-profit sector's survival, making it an inevitable topic for research in this context. It has become imperative for charities and not-for-profit organisations to adopt for-profit's research, marketing and targeting strategies. This study provides the not-for-profit sector with an easily-interpretable segmentation method based on a novel unsupervised clustering technique (MST-kNN) followed by a feature saliency method (the CM1 score). A sample of 1,562 respondents from a survey conducted by the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission is analysed to reveal donor segments. Each cluster's most salient features are identified using the CM1 score. Furthermore, symbolic regression modelling is employed to find cluster-specific models to predict `low' or `high' involvement in clusters. The MST-kNN method found seven clusters. Based on their salient features they were labelled as: the `non-institutionalist charities supporters', the `resource allocation critics', the `information-seeking financial sceptics', the `non-questioning charity supporters', the `non-trusting sceptics', the `charity management believers' and the `institutionalist charity believers'. Each cluster exhibits their own characteristics as well as different drivers of `involvement'. The method in this study provides the not-for-profit sector with a guideline for clustering, segmenting, understanding and potentially targeting their donor base better. If charities and not

  18. Clustering consumers based on trust, confidence and giving behaviour: data-driven model building for charitable involvement in the Australian not-for-profit sector.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Jane de Vries

    Full Text Available Organisations in the Not-for-Profit and charity sector face increasing competition to win time, money and efforts from a common donor base. Consequently, these organisations need to be more proactive than ever. The increased level of communications between individuals and organisations today, heightens the need for investigating the drivers of charitable giving and understanding the various consumer groups, or donor segments, within a population. It is contended that `trust' is the cornerstone of the not-for-profit sector's survival, making it an inevitable topic for research in this context. It has become imperative for charities and not-for-profit organisations to adopt for-profit's research, marketing and targeting strategies. This study provides the not-for-profit sector with an easily-interpretable segmentation method based on a novel unsupervised clustering technique (MST-kNN followed by a feature saliency method (the CM1 score. A sample of 1,562 respondents from a survey conducted by the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission is analysed to reveal donor segments. Each cluster's most salient features are identified using the CM1 score. Furthermore, symbolic regression modelling is employed to find cluster-specific models to predict `low' or `high' involvement in clusters. The MST-kNN method found seven clusters. Based on their salient features they were labelled as: the `non-institutionalist charities supporters', the `resource allocation critics', the `information-seeking financial sceptics', the `non-questioning charity supporters', the `non-trusting sceptics', the `charity management believers' and the `institutionalist charity believers'. Each cluster exhibits their own characteristics as well as different drivers of `involvement'. The method in this study provides the not-for-profit sector with a guideline for clustering, segmenting, understanding and potentially targeting their donor base better. If charities and not

  19. On Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculation

    CERN Document Server

    Tegenfeldt, Fredrik

    2005-01-01

    In high energy physics, a widely used method to treat systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculations is based on combining a frequentist construction of confidence belts with a Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties. In this note we present a study of the coverage of this method for the standard Likelihood Ratio (aka Feldman & Cousins) construction for a Poisson process with known background and Gaussian or log-Normal distributed uncertainties in the background or signal efficiency. For uncertainties in the signal efficiency of upto 40 % we find over-coverage on the level of 2 to 4 % depending on the size of uncertainties and the region in signal space. Uncertainties in the background generally have smaller effect on the coverage. A considerable smoothing of the coverage curves is observed. A software package is presented which allows fast calculation of the confidence intervals for a variety of assumptions on shape and size of systematic uncertainties for different nuisance paramete...

  20. High league bench players and starters: differences in group interactions, group cohesion, role acceptance and self-confidence in football teams

    OpenAIRE

    Simonenkova Irina Petrovna

    2015-01-01

    Main staff players differ from bench players in their perceptions and demonstrate different responses. This research compares the situation of bench players with the situation of starters in high league Latvian football teams.

  1. An Exploration of Students' Science Learning Interest Related to Their Cognitive Anxiety, Cognitive Load, Self-Confidence and Learning Progress Using Inquiry-Based Learning With an iPad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jon-Chao; Hwang, Ming-Yueh; Tai, Kai-Hsin; Tsai, Chi-Ruei

    2017-12-01

    Based on the cognitive-affective theory, the present study designed a science inquiry learning model, predict-observe-explain (POE), and implemented it in an app called "WhyWhy" to examine the effectiveness of students' science inquiry learning practice. To understand how POE can affect the cognitive-affective learning process, as well as the learning progress, a pretest and a posttest were given to 152 grade 5 elementary school students. The students practiced WhyWhy during six sessions over 6 weeks, and data related to interest in learning science (ILS), cognitive anxiety (CA), and extraneous cognitive load (ECL) were collected and analyzed through confirmatory factor analysis with structure equation modeling. The results showed that students with high ILS have low CA and ECL. In addition, the results also indicated that students with a high level of self-confidence enhancement showed significant improvement in the posttest. The implications of this study suggest that by using technology-enhanced science learning, the POE model is a practical approach to motivate students to learn.

  2. A Unique Marine and Environmental Science Program for High School Teachers in Hawai'i: Professional Development, Teacher Confidence, and Lessons Learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, Malia Ana J.; Manning, Mackenzie M.; Krupp, David A.

    2013-01-01

    Hawai'i is a unique and special place to conduct environmental science inquiry through place based learning and scientific investigation. Here, we describe and evaluate a unique professional development program for science teachers in Hawai'i that integrates the traditional approach of providing training to improve content knowledge, with the…

  3. Nuclear power: restoring public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, L.

    1986-01-01

    The paper concerns a one day conference on nuclear power organised by the Centre for Science Studies and Science Policy, Lancaster, April 1986. Following the Chernobyl reactor accident, the conference concentrated on public confidence in nuclear power. Causes of lack of public confidence, public perceptions of risk, and the effect of Chernobyl in the United Kingdom, were all discussed. A Select Committee on the Environment examined the problems of radioactive waste disposal. (U.K.)

  4. Confidence Intervals from Normalized Data: A correction to Cousineau (2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard D. Morey

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Presenting confidence intervals around means is a common method of expressing uncertainty in data. Loftus and Masson (1994 describe confidence intervals for means in within-subjects designs. These confidence intervals are based on the ANOVA mean squared error. Cousineau (2005 presents an alternative to the Loftus and Masson method, but his method produces confidence intervals that are smaller than those of Loftus and Masson. I show why this is the case and offer a simple correction that makes the expected size of Cousineau confidence intervals the same as that of Loftus and Masson confidence intervals.

  5. Confidence in critical care nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jeanne; Bell, Jennifer L; Sweeney, Annemarie E; Morgan, Jennifer I; Kelly, Helen M

    2010-10-01

    The purpose of the study was to gain an understanding of the nursing phenomenon, confidence, from the experience of nurses in the nursing subculture of critical care. Leininger's theory of cultural care diversity and universality guided this qualitative descriptive study. Questions derived from the sunrise model were used to elicit nurses' perspectives about cultural and social structures that exist within the critical care nursing subculture and the influence that these factors have on confidence. Twenty-eight critical care nurses from a large Canadian healthcare organization participated in semistructured interviews about confidence. Five themes arose from the descriptions provided by the participants. The three themes, tenuously navigating initiation rituals, deliberately developing holistic supportive relationships, and assimilating clinical decision-making rules were identified as social and cultural factors related to confidence. The remaining two themes, preserving a sense of security despite barriers and accommodating to diverse challenges, were identified as environmental factors related to confidence. Practice and research implications within the culture of critical care nursing are discussed in relation to each of the themes.

  6. Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

  7. Growing confidence, building skills | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    In 2012 Rashid explored the influence of think tanks on policy in Bangladesh, as well as their relationships with international donors and media. In 2014, he explored two-way student exchanges between Canadian and ... his IDRC experience “gave me the confidence to conduct high quality research in social sciences.”.

  8. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  9. Self Confidence Spillovers and Motivated Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banerjee, Ritwik; Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Villeval, Marie Claire

    that success when competing in a task increases the performers’ self-confidence and competitiveness in the subsequent task. We also find that such spillovers affect the self-confidence of low-status individuals more than that of high-status individuals. Receiving good news under Affirmative Action, however......Is success in a task used strategically by individuals to motivate their beliefs prior to taking action in a subsequent, unrelated, task? Also, is the distortion of beliefs reinforced for individuals who have lower status in society? Conducting an artefactual field experiment in India, we show...

  10. Confidence Leak in Perceptual Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D'Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan

    2015-11-01

    People live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a continuity field in which objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of metacognitive representations. In three experiments, we demonstrated a robust intertask confidence leak-that is, confidence in one's response on a given task or trial influencing confidence on the following task or trial. This confidence leak could not be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Better ability to modulate confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in the prefrontal cortex. © The Author(s) 2015.

  11. ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Luis, Gache

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.

  12. Simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function

    OpenAIRE

    Dudek, Anna; Gocwin, Maciej; Leskow, Jacek

    2006-01-01

    The construction of the simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function is considered. The Nelson--Aalen estimator is used. The simultaneous confidence bands based on bootstrap methods are presented. Two methods of construction of such confidence bands are proposed. The weird bootstrap method is used for resampling. Simulations are made to compare the actual coverage probability of the bootstrap and the asymptotic simultaneous confidence bands. It is shown that the equal--tai...

  13. Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cleminson, F.R. [Dept. of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Verification, Non-Proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament Div (IDA), Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

    1998-07-01

    Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

  14. Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cleminson, F.R.

    1998-01-01

    Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

  15. "Does a Spider Have Fur"?: A Teacher's Journey in Building the Confidence to Blend the English Language Learning of ESL Students with Inquiry-Based Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeegers, Yvonne; McKinnon, Heather

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes one aspect of an ESL teacher's journey, in which her voluntary involvement in a series of science-based professional learning events inspired her to use language-based objectives to develop and teach an integrated unit of work with ESL students. Her willingness to modify her usual pedagogical practice and the inspiration she…

  16. Faith Is Confidence: The Implication of Psychosocial Components in Faith-Based Educational Programs on Expressive Communication Skills of Adult Learners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Erin M.

    2016-01-01

    Faith-based programs for adult learners have environmental factors that differentiate them from non-faith based programs, but explicit empirical studies evaluating the impact of the psychosocial factors have been lacking in the literature. This study comparatively examines the achievement level of expressive communication skills as measured…

  17. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

  18. A Case Study of Culturally Relevant School-Based Programming for First Nations Youth: Improved Relationships, Confidence and Leadership, and School Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crooks, Claire V.; Burleigh, Dawn; Snowshoe, Angela; Lapp, Andrea; Hughes, Ray; Sisco, Ashley

    2015-01-01

    Schools are expected to promote social and emotional learning skills among youth; however, there is a lack of culturally-relevant programming available. The Fourth R: Uniting Our Nations programs for Aboriginal youth include strengths-based programs designed to promote healthy relationships and cultural connectedness, and improve school success…

  19. Comprehensive Plan for Public Confidence in Nuclear Regulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Kwang Sik; Choi, Young Sung; Kim, Ho ki

    2008-01-01

    Public confidence in nuclear regulator has been discussed internationally. Public trust or confidence is needed for achieving regulatory goal of assuring nuclear safety to the level that is acceptable by the public or providing public ease for nuclear safety. In Korea, public ease or public confidence has been suggested as major policy goal in the 'Nuclear regulatory policy direction' annually announced. This paper reviews theory of trust, its definitions and defines nuclear safety regulation, elements of public trust or public confidence developed based on the study conducted so far. Public ease model developed and 10 measures for ensuring public confidence are also presented and future study directions are suggested

  20. Leadership by Confidence in Teams

    OpenAIRE

    Kobayashi, Hajime; Suehiro, Hideo

    2008-01-01

    We study endogenous signaling by analyzing a team production problem with endogenous timing. Each agent of the team is privately endowed with some level of confidence about team productivity. Each of them must then commit a level of effort in one of two periods. At the end of each period, each agent observes his partner' s move in this period. Both agents are rewarded by a team output determined by team productivity and total invested effort. Each agent must personally incur the cost of effor...

  1. Social media sentiment and consumer confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Daas, Piet J.H.; Puts, Marco J.H.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in the sentiment of Dutch public social media messages were compared with changes in monthly consumer confidence over a period of three-and-a-half years, revealing that both were highly correlated (up to r = 0.9) and that both series cointegrated. This phenomenon is predominantly affected by changes in the sentiment of all Dutch public Facebook messages. The inclusion of various selections of public Twitter messages improved this association and the response to changes in sentiment. G...

  2. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaacs, T

    2002-01-01

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site. Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence and some of

  3. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaacs, T

    2002-01-01

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence, and some of

  4. Confidence and trust: empirical investigations for the Netherlands and the financial sector

    OpenAIRE

    Mosch, Robert; Prast, Henriëtte

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews the state of confidence and trust in the Netherlands, with special attention to the financial sector. An attempt has been made to identify the factors that determine individual trust and confidence and to uncover connections between the various variables. Based on surveys over the period 2003-2006, the data show that interpersonal trust in the Netherlands - the extent to which the Dutch trust each other - is high from both an international and an historical perspective. Peo...

  5. The Great Recession and confidence in homeownership

    OpenAIRE

    Anat Bracha; Julian Jamison

    2013-01-01

    Confidence in homeownership shifts for those who personally experienced real estate loss during the Great Recession. Older Americans are confident in the value of homeownership. Younger Americans are less confident.

  6. Confidence assessment. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-09-01

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Forsmark). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. The confidence in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface-based site investigations, have been assessed by exploring: Confidence in the site characterisation data base; Key remaining issues and their handling; Handling of alternative models; Consistency between disciplines; and, Main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. It is generally found that the key aspects of importance for safety assessment and repository engineering of the Forsmark site descriptive model are associated with a high degree of confidence. Because of the robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in Forsmark site descriptive model is judged to be high. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models. Most, but not all, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. Poor precision in the measured data are judged to have limited impact on uncertainties on the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of inaccuracy in determining the position of some boreholes at depth in 3-D space, as well as the poor precision of the orientation of BIPS images in some boreholes, and the poor precision of stress data determined by overcoring at the locations where the pre

  7. Public confidence and nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaussade, J.P.

    1990-01-01

    Today in France there are 54 nuclear power units in operation at 18 sites. They supply 75% of all electricity produced, 12% of which is exported to neighbouring countries, and play an important role in the French economy. For the French, nuclear power is a fact of life, and most accept it. However, the accident of Chernobyl has made public opinion more sensitive, and the public relations work has had to be reconsidered carefully with a view to increase the confidence of the French public in nuclear power, anticipating media crises and being equipped to deal with such crises. The three main approaches are the following: keeping the public better informed, providing clear information at time of crisis and international activities

  8. Knowledge, Self Confidence and Courage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selberg, Hanne; Steenberg Holtzmann, Jette; Hovedskov, Jette

    . Results The students identified their major learning outcomes as transfer of operational skills, experiencing self-efficacy and enhanced understanding of the patients' perspective.Involving simulated patients in the training of technical skills contributed to the development of the students' communication......Knowledge, self confidence and courage – long lasting learning outcomes through simulation in a clinical context. Hanne Selberg1, Jette Hovedskov2, Jette Steenberg Holtzmann2 The significance and methodology of the researchThe study focuses on simulation alongside the clinical practice and linked...... Development, Clinical Lecturer, Metropolitan University College, Faculty of Nursing, Email: hase@phoe.dk, phone: +45-72282830. 2. Jette Hovedskov, RN, Development Consultant, Glostrup University Hospital, Department of Development Email : jeho@glo.regionh.dk ,phone: +45- 43232090 3. Jette Holtzmann Steenberg...

  9. Teachers and Counselors: Building Math Confidence in Schools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph M. Furner

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Mathematics teachers need to take on the role of counselors in addressing the math anxious in today's math classrooms. This paper looks at the impact math anxiety has on the future of young adults in our high-tech society. Teachers and professional school counselors are encouraged to work together to prevent and reduce math anxiety. It is important that all students feel confident in their ability to do mathematics in an age that relies so heavily on problem solving, technology, science, and mathematics. It really is a school's obligation to see that their students value and feel confident in their ability to do math, because ultimately a child's life: all decisions they will make and careers choices may be determined based on their disposition toward mathematics. This paper raises some interesting questions and provides some strategies (See Appendix A for teachers and counselors for addressing the issue of math anxiety while discussing the importance of developing mathematically confident young people for a high-tech world of STEM.

  10. Effect of CALIPSO Cloud Aerosol Discrimination (CAD) Confidence Levels on Observations of Aerosol Properties near Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Weidong; Marshak, Alexander; Varnai, Tamas; Liu, Zhaoyan

    2012-01-01

    CALIPSO aerosol backscatter enhancement in the transition zone between clouds and clear sky areas is revisited with particular attention to effects of data selection based on the confidence level of cloud-aerosol discrimination (CAD). The results show that backscatter behavior in the transition zone strongly depends on the CAD confidence level. Higher confidence level data has a flatter backscatter far away from clouds and a much sharper increase near clouds (within 4 km), thus a smaller transition zone. For high confidence level data it is shown that the overall backscatter enhancement is more pronounced for small clear-air segments and horizontally larger clouds. The results suggest that data selection based on CAD reduces the possible effects of cloud contamination when studying aerosol properties in the vicinity of clouds.

  11. Forum on stakeholder confidence: Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vari, A.; Pescatore, C.

    2006-01-01

    The FSC workshop in Spain provided an important opportunity to carry out an in-depth examination of decision-making processes undertaken in an NEA member country, and to reflect on the evolution that has taken place over time. It offered a well-rounded perspective on the inclusion of stakeholders in decision making, and the atmosphere of the meetings was conducive to an honest and open exchange of ideas. The workshop started with the introduction of two case studies: the earlier attempt in Spain to locate a potential site for a high-level waste (HLW) disposal facility, and the dismantling of the Vandellos-I nuclear power plant. This was followed by two days of presentations and round-table discussions based on the recent COWAM Spain initiative (stemming from the EU-wide project on Community Waste Management), which aims at developing recommendations for institutional arrangements and decision-making processes concerning the siting of waste management facilities in Spain. This article provides a brief summary of the case studies and the COWAM Spain initiative, followed by some of the lessons learnt from an international perspective. (authors)

  12. Validation of self - confidence scale for clean urinary intermittent self - catheterization for patients and health - caregivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biaziolo, Cintia Fernandes Baccarin; Mazzo, Alessandra; Martins, José Carlos Amado; Jorge, Beatriz Maria; Batista, Rui Carlos Negrão; Tucci, Silvio Júnior

    2017-01-01

    To validate a measurement instrument for clean intermittent self-catheterization for patients and health-caregivers. Methodological study of instrument validation performed at a Rehabilitation Center in a University hospital for patients submitted to clean intermittent self-catheterization and their health-caregivers. Following ethical criteria, data were collected during interview with nurse staff using a Likert question form containing 16 items with 5 points each: "no confidence"=1, "little confidence"=2, "confident"=3, "very confident"=4 and "completely confident"=5. Questionnaire called "Self- Confident Scale for Clean Intermittent Self-catheterization" (SCSCISC) was constructed based on literature and previously validated (appearance and content). The instrument was validated by 122 patients and 119 health-caregivers, in a proportion of 15:1. It was observed a good linear association and sample adequacy KMO 0.931 and X2=2881.63, p<0.001. Anti-image matrix showed high values at diagonal suggesting inclusion of all factors. Screen plot analysis showed a suggestion of items maintenance in a single set. It was observed high correlation of all items with the total, alpha-Cronbach 0.944. The same results were obtained in subsamples of patients and health-caregivers. The instrument showed good psychometric adequacy corroborating its use for evaluation of self-confidence during clean intermittent self-catheterization. Copyright® by the International Brazilian Journal of Urology.

  13. Confidence building in safety assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grundfelt, Bertil

    1999-01-01

    Future generations should be adequately protected from damage caused by the present disposal of radioactive waste. This presentation discusses the core of safety and performance assessment: The demonstration and building of confidence that the disposal system meets the safety requirements stipulated by society. The major difficulty is to deal with risks in the very long time perspective of the thousands of years during which the waste is hazardous. Concern about these problems has stimulated the development of the safety assessment discipline. The presentation concentrates on two of the elements of safety assessment: (1) Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and (2) validation and review. Uncertainty is associated both with respect to what is the proper conceptual model and with respect to parameter values for a given model. A special kind of uncertainty derives from the variation of a property in space. Geostatistics is one approach to handling spatial variability. The simplest way of doing a sensitivity analysis is to offset the model parameters one by one and observe how the model output changes. The validity of the models and data used to make predictions is central to the credibility of safety assessments for radioactive waste repositories. There are several definitions of model validation. The presentation discusses it as a process and highlights some aspects of validation methodologies

  14. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-10-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.

  15. Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Settlemyer, Bradley W [ORNL; Hodson, Stephen W [ORNL; Kuehn, Jeffery A [ORNL; Poole, Stephen W [ORNL

    2011-04-01

    Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.

  16. Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Čižmešija

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.

  17. Decision time and confidence predict choosers' identification performance in photographic showups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagana, Anna; Sporer, Siegfried L.; Wixted, John T.

    2018-01-01

    In vast contrast to the multitude of lineup studies that report on the link between decision time, confidence, and identification accuracy, only a few studies looked at these associations for showups, with results varying widely across studies. We therefore set out to test the individual and combined value of decision time and post-decision confidence for diagnosing the accuracy of positive showup decisions using confidence-accuracy characteristic curves and Bayesian analyses. Three-hundred-eighty-four participants viewed a stimulus event and were subsequently presented with two showups which could be target-present or target-absent. As expected, we found a negative decision time-accuracy and a positive post-decision confidence-accuracy correlation for showup selections. Confidence-accuracy characteristic curves demonstrated the expected additive effect of combining both postdictors. Likewise, Bayesian analyses, taking into account all possible target-presence base rate values showed that fast and confident identification decisions were more diagnostic than slow or less confident decisions, with the combination of both being most diagnostic for postdicting accurate and inaccurate decisions. The postdictive value of decision time and post-decision confidence was higher when the prior probability that the suspect is the perpetrator was high compared to when the prior probability that the suspect is the perpetrator was low. The frequent use of showups in practice emphasizes the importance of these findings for court proceedings. Overall, these findings support the idea that courts should have most trust in showup identifications that were made fast and confidently, and least in showup identifications that were made slowly and with low confidence. PMID:29346394

  18. The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

  19. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  20. Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Verrill

    2003-01-01

    This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

  1. Constructivist-Based Asynchronous Tutorial to Improve Transfer between Math and Chemistry Domains: Design, Implementation, and Analysis of the Impact of ReMATCH on General Chemistry Course Performance and Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barker, M. Danielle

    2011-07-01

    The two-year implementation of ReMATCH, a web-based math and problem-solving tutorial, in a traditionally arranged general chemistry classroom at the University of Kansas examined the impact of a designed intervention to assist students with the transfer of their mathematical knowledge to a chemistry context where it could be readily used for quantitative problem solving. The ReMATCH intervention, designed on constructivist-based pedagogies, focused on illuminating the expert-processes of problem solving and transferring knowledge across domains to the novice chemistry. The two implementations of ReMATCH -- once as lab assignments and once lecture assignments -- resulted in very different student responses to the intervention. However, within both, the beneficial effects of sustained ReMATCH-use were visible. In 2006, students who attempted all of the ReMATCH homework assignments were predicted to earn ˜5% higher on their total exam points. The 2007 implementation of ReMATCH demonstrated that students who attempted all of the homework problems and visited at least half of the ReMATCH tutorial pages were predicted to earn ˜8.5% higher on their total exam points. Additionally, use of ReMATCH in 2006 also resulted in increased confidence (as measured by comfort-level) with some of the math-related chemistry topics covered in ReMATCH. In 2007, when only students who attempted all of the ReMATCH problems were considered, it became clear that individuals who were initially less confident in their math-related chemistry skills were more likely to view more of the ReMATCH tutorial pages. When students with lower initial comfort-levels on these topics viewed at least half of the ReMATCH tutorial pages, they were able to compensate for their initially lower levels of confidence and were equally comfortable with most of the math-related chemistry topics by the final survey. Student interactions with and perceptions of ReMATCH showed that student attitudes towards Re

  2. Multivoxel neurofeedback selectively modulates confidence without changing perceptual performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Kawato, Mitsuo; Lau, Hakwan

    2016-01-01

    A central controversy in metacognition studies concerns whether subjective confidence directly reflects the reliability of perceptual or cognitive processes, as suggested by normative models based on the assumption that neural computations are generally optimal. This view enjoys popularity in the computational and animal literatures, but it has also been suggested that confidence may depend on a late-stage estimation dissociable from perceptual processes. Yet, at least in humans, experimental tools have lacked the power to resolve these issues convincingly. Here, we overcome this difficulty by using the recently developed method of decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) to systematically manipulate multivoxel correlates of confidence in a frontoparietal network. Here we report that bi-directional changes in confidence do not affect perceptual accuracy. Further psychophysical analyses rule out accounts based on simple shifts in reporting strategy. Our results provide clear neuroscientific evidence for the systematic dissociation between confidence and perceptual performance, and thereby challenge current theoretical thinking. PMID:27976739

  3. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation,...

  4. Transparency as an element of public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, H.K.

    2007-01-01

    In the modern society, there is increasing demands for greater transparency. It has been discussed with respect to corruption or ethics issues in social science. The need for greater openness and transparency in nuclear regulation is widely recognised as public expectations on regulator grow. It is also related to the digital and information technology that enables disclosures of every activity and information of individual and organisation, characterised by numerous 'small brothers'. Transparency has become a key word in this ubiquitous era. Transparency in regulatory activities needs to be understood in following contexts. First, transparency is one of elements to build public confidence in regulator and eventually to achieve regulatory goal of providing the public with satisfaction at nuclear safety. Transparent bases of competence, independence, ethics and integrity of working process of regulatory body would enhance public confidence. Second, activities transmitting information on nuclear safety and preparedness to be accessed are different types of transparency. Communication is an active method of transparency. With increasing use of web-sites, 'digital transparency' is also discussed as passive one. Transparency in regulatory process may be more important than that of contents. Simply providing more information is of little value and specific information may need to be protected for security reason. Third, transparency should be discussed in international, national and organizational perspectives. It has been demanded through international instruments. for each country, transparency is demanded by residents, public, NGOs, media and other stakeholders. Employees also demand more transparency in operating and regulatory organisations. Whistle-blower may appear unless they are satisfied. Fourth, pursuing transparency may cause undue social cost or adverse effects. Over-transparency may decrease public confidence and the process for transparency may also hinder

  5. Confidence building in safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osthols, E.

    1999-01-01

    Engineered disposal systems are necessary to isolate radioactive waste from humans and the environment. It is essential to have access to basic thermochemical data relevant to varying geological environments for the radioactive elements involved. The OECD/NEA Thermochemical Data Base project (TDB) aims to make widely available basic thermochemical data of the type needed for safety assessment of nuclear storage facilities. The history and the present status of the project are presented. (K.A.)

  6. Confidence limits for small numbers of events in astrophysical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehrels, N.

    1986-01-01

    The calculation of limits for small numbers of astronomical counts is based on standard equations derived from Poisson and binomial statistics; although the equations are straightforward, their direct use is cumbersome and involves both table-interpolations and several mathematical operations. Convenient tables and approximate formulae are here presented for confidence limits which are based on such Poisson and binomial statistics. The limits in the tables are given for all confidence levels commonly used in astrophysics.

  7. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  8. Winning Public Confidence in Sellafield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preece, J. A.

    1991-01-01

    BNF operates the nuclear fuel reprocessing and waste management centre of Sellafield in North West England. It is the largest nuclear site in Britain and perhaps the most famous nuclear plant in Western Europe. It is famous largely because it has long been the target of anti-nuclear interests. Well organised, well funded and well informed anti-nuclear organisations, notably including Green peace and Friends of the Earth, have made propaganda capital based on a number of controversial claims: - that by importing spent nuclear fuel from overseas for reprocessing at Sellafield, BNFL was turning Britain into a nuclear dustbin for the world. That discharges of low level radioactivity from Sellafield cause unacceptable nuclear pollution and endanger health, that the radioactivity in store in various forms on site at Sellafield, for which no permanent disposal routes are yet available, are a danger to the public and constantly threaten a major nuclear accident

  9. Maternal Confidence for Physiologic Childbirth: A Concept Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neerland, Carrie E

    2018-06-06

    Confidence is a term often used in research literature and consumer media in relation to birth, but maternal confidence has not been clearly defined, especially as it relates to physiologic labor and birth. The aim of this concept analysis was to define maternal confidence in the context of physiologic labor and childbirth. Rodgers' evolutionary method was used to identify attributes, antecedents, and consequences of maternal confidence for physiologic birth. Databases searched included Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Sociological Abstracts from the years 1995 to 2015. A total of 505 articles were retrieved, using the search terms pregnancy, obstetric care, prenatal care, and self-efficacy and the keyword confidence. Articles were identified for in-depth review and inclusion based on whether the term confidence was used or assessed in relationship to labor and/or birth. In addition, a hand search of the reference lists of the selected articles was performed. Twenty-four articles were reviewed in this concept analysis. We define maternal confidence for physiologic birth as a woman's belief that physiologic birth can be achieved, based on her view of birth as a normal process and her belief in her body's innate ability to birth, which is supported by social support, knowledge, and information founded on a trusted relationship with a maternity care provider in an environment where the woman feels safe. This concept analysis advances the concept of maternal confidence for physiologic birth and provides new insight into how women's confidence for physiologic birth might be enhanced during the prenatal period. Further investigation of confidence for physiologic birth across different cultures is needed to identify cultural differences in constructions of the concept. © 2018 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

  10. How Confident can we be in Flood Risk Assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, B.

    2017-12-01

    Flood risk management should be based on risk analyses quantifying the risk and its reduction for different risk reduction strategies. However, validating risk estimates by comparing model simulations with past observations is hardly possible, since the assessment typically encompasses extreme events and their impacts that have not been observed before. Hence, risk analyses are strongly based on assumptions and expert judgement. This situation opens the door for cognitive biases, such as `illusion of certainty', `overconfidence' or `recency bias'. Such biases operate specifically in complex situations with many factors involved, when uncertainty is high and events are probabilistic, or when close learning feedback loops are missing - aspects that all apply to risk analyses. This contribution discusses how confident we can be in flood risk assessments, and reflects about more rigorous approaches towards their validation.

  11. Uranium ... long-term confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1983-01-01

    Half way through 1983 the outlook for the world's uranium producers was far from bright if one takes a short term view. The readily accessible facts present a gloomy picture. The spot prices of uranium over the past few years decreased from a high of $42-$43/lb to a low of $17 in 1982. It now hovers between $23 and $24. the contract prices negotiated between producers and consumers are not so accessible but they do not reflect the spot price. The reasons why contractual uranium prices do not follow the usual dictates of supply and demand are related to the position in which uranium and associated power industries find themselves. There is public reaction with strong emotional overtones as well as much reduced expectations about the electric power needs of the world. Furthermore the supply of uranium is not guaranteed despite present over production. However the people in the industry, taking the medium- and long-term view, are not despondent

  12. A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.

    1982-01-01

    One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.

  13. A Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp improves trainee confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Catherine K; Tannous, Paul; DeWitt, Elizabeth; Farias, Michael; Mansfield, Laura; Ronai, Christina; Schidlow, David; Sanders, Stephen P; Lock, James E; Newburger, Jane W; Brown, David W

    2016-12-01

    Introduction New paediatric cardiology trainees are required to rapidly assimilate knowledge and gain clinical skills to which they have limited or no exposure during residency. The Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp (PCBC) at Boston Children's Hospital was designed to provide incoming fellows with an intensive exposure to congenital cardiac pathology and a broad overview of major areas of paediatric cardiology practice. The PCBC curriculum was designed by core faculty in cardiac pathology, echocardiography, electrophysiology, interventional cardiology, exercise physiology, and cardiac intensive care. Individual faculty contributed learning objectives, which were refined by fellowship directors and used to build a programme of didactics, hands-on/simulation-based activities, and self-guided learning opportunities. A total of 16 incoming fellows participated in the 4-week boot camp, with no concurrent clinical responsibilities, over 2 years. On the basis of pre- and post-PCBC surveys, 80% of trainees strongly agreed that they felt more prepared for clinical responsibilities, and a similar percentage felt that PCBC should be offered to future incoming fellows. Fellows showed significant increase in their confidence in all specific knowledge and skills related to the learning objectives. Fellows rated hands-on learning experiences and simulation-based exercises most highly. We describe a novel 4-week-long boot camp designed to expose incoming paediatric cardiology fellows to the broad spectrum of knowledge and skills required for the practice of paediatric cardiology. The experience increased trainee confidence and sense of preparedness to begin fellowship-related responsibilities. Given that highly interactive activities were rated most highly, boot camps in paediatric cardiology should strongly emphasise these elements.

  14. Non-Asymptotic Confidence Sets for Circular Means

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Hotz

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The mean of data on the unit circle is defined as the minimizer of the average squared Euclidean distance to the data. Based on Hoeffding’s mass concentration inequalities, non-asymptotic confidence sets for circular means are constructed which are universal in the sense that they require no distributional assumptions. These are then compared with asymptotic confidence sets in simulations and for a real data set.

  15. Time-varying associations between confidence and motivation to abstain from marijuana during treatment among adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Tammy; Maisto, Stephen A

    2016-06-01

    An important goal of addictions treatment is to develop a positive association between high levels of confidence and motivation to abstain from substance use. This study modeled the time-varying association between confidence and motivation to abstain from marijuana use among youth in treatment, and the time-varying effect of pre-treatment covariates (marijuana abstinence goal and perceived peer marijuana use) on motivation to abstain. 150 adolescents (75% male, 83% White) in community-based intensive outpatient treatment in Pennsylvania completed a pre-treatment assessment of abstinence goal, perceived peer marijuana use, and motivation and confidence to abstain from marijuana. Ratings of motivation and confidence to abstain also were collected after each session. A time-varying effect model (TVEM) was used to characterize changes in the association between confidence and motivation to abstain (lagged), and included covariates representing pre-treatment abstinence goal and perceived peer marijuana use. Confidence and motivation to abstain from marijuana generally increased during treatment. The association between confidence and motivation strengthened across sessions 1-4, and was maintained through later sessions. Pre-treatment abstinence goal had an early time-limited effect (through session 6) on motivation to abstain. Pre-treatment perception of peer marijuana use had a significant effect on motivation to abstain only at session 2. Early treatment sessions represent a critical period during which the association between confidence and motivation to abstain generally increased. The time-limited effects of pre-treatment characteristics suggest the importance of early sessions in addressing abstinence goal and peer substance use that may impact motivation to abstain from marijuana. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-09-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

  17. Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

    2016-01-01

    As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

  18. Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Oshins

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

  19. Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, Marc M.

    2016-01-01

    We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.

  20. Confidence Interval Approximation For Treatment Variance In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In a random effects model with a single factor, variation is partitioned into two as residual error variance and treatment variance. While a confidence interval can be imposed on the residual error variance, it is not possible to construct an exact confidence interval for the treatment variance. This is because the treatment ...

  1. Aging and Confidence Judgments in Item Recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskuilen, Chelsea; Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

    2018-01-01

    We examined the effects of aging on performance in an item-recognition experiment with confidence judgments. A model for confidence judgments and response time (RTs; Ratcliff & Starns, 2013) was used to fit a large amount of data from a new sample of older adults and a previously reported sample of younger adults. This model of confidence…

  2. Organic labbeling systems and consumer confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Sønderskov, Kim Mannemar; Daugbjerg, Carsten

    2009-01-01

    A research analysis suggests that a state certification and labelling system creates confidence in organic labelling systems and consequently green consumerism. Danish consumers have higher levels of confidence in the labelling system than consumers in countries where the state plays a minor role in labelling and certification.

  3. Metacognition and Confidence: Comparing Math to Other Academic Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanna eErickson

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

  4. Self-confidence and metacognitive processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kleitman Sabina

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.

  5. Intermetallic-Based High-Temperature Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikka, V.K.

    1999-04-25

    The intermetallic-based alloys for high-temperature applications are introduced. General characteristics of intermetallics are followed by identification of nickel and iron aluminides as the most practical alloys for commercial applications. An overview of the alloy compositions, melting processes, and mechanical properties for nickel and iron aluminizes are presented. The current applications and commercial producers of nickel and iron aluminizes are given. A brief description of the future prospects of intermetallic-based alloys is also given.

  6. Confidence Intervals: From tests of statistical significance to confidence intervals, range hypotheses and substantial effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominic Beaulieu-Prévost

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available For the last 50 years of research in quantitative social sciences, the empirical evaluation of scientific hypotheses has been based on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis. However, more than 300 articles demonstrated that this method was problematic. In summary, null hypothesis testing (NHT is unfalsifiable, its results depend directly on sample size and the null hypothesis is both improbable and not plausible. Consequently, alternatives to NHT such as confidence intervals (CI and measures of effect size are starting to be used in scientific publications. The purpose of this article is, first, to provide the conceptual tools necessary to implement an approach based on confidence intervals, and second, to briefly demonstrate why such an approach is an interesting alternative to an approach based on NHT. As demonstrated in the article, the proposed CI approach avoids most problems related to a NHT approach and can often improve the scientific and contextual relevance of the statistical interpretations by testing range hypotheses instead of a point hypothesis and by defining the minimal value of a substantial effect. The main advantage of such a CI approach is that it replaces the notion of statistical power by an easily interpretable three-value logic (probable presence of a substantial effect, probable absence of a substantial effect and probabilistic undetermination. The demonstration includes a complete example.

  7. Confidence in the use of information management and technology (IM and T) in radiography: Is age a barrier?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rogers, Hywel, E-mail: rogershj1@cf.ac.u [Department of Radiography, School of Healthcare Studies, Cardiff University, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XN (United Kingdom); Pratt, Shaaron; Brown, Paul; Gambling, Tina [Department of Radiography, School of Healthcare Studies, Cardiff University, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XN (United Kingdom)

    2010-08-15

    Introduction: Age has been reported as a barrier to the use of Information Management and Technology (IM and T). Radiographers' confidence and ability in IM and T may be related to age and it is the aim of this research to investigate this relationship. Method: An online survey method gathered views from the radiographic population, between 31st August 2008 and 10th October 2008. The questionnaire encompassed IM and T ability, work based IM and T usage, personal IM and T usage, security and governance issues, education and training experience, the future and demographic details. For the purpose of this paper the first three sections and demographic section were considered. Results: Radiographers showed a good level of ability and confidence in the use of IM and T. Some general applications such as word processing showed a decreased confidence with age. Confidence in all radiography specific applications was scored highly although confidence in the use of Hospital Information Systems (HIS) and radiotherapy Treatment Planning Systems (TPS) showed the least confidence. Statistical analysis did not reveal a strong link between age and confidence in all applications. Discussion: While a link between age and confidence was not found in this study, frequency of use and training in IM and T require further investigation in relation to specific roles.

  8. Confidence in the use of information management and technology (IM and T) in radiography: Is age a barrier?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, Hywel; Pratt, Shaaron; Brown, Paul; Gambling, Tina

    2010-01-01

    Introduction: Age has been reported as a barrier to the use of Information Management and Technology (IM and T). Radiographers' confidence and ability in IM and T may be related to age and it is the aim of this research to investigate this relationship. Method: An online survey method gathered views from the radiographic population, between 31st August 2008 and 10th October 2008. The questionnaire encompassed IM and T ability, work based IM and T usage, personal IM and T usage, security and governance issues, education and training experience, the future and demographic details. For the purpose of this paper the first three sections and demographic section were considered. Results: Radiographers showed a good level of ability and confidence in the use of IM and T. Some general applications such as word processing showed a decreased confidence with age. Confidence in all radiography specific applications was scored highly although confidence in the use of Hospital Information Systems (HIS) and radiotherapy Treatment Planning Systems (TPS) showed the least confidence. Statistical analysis did not reveal a strong link between age and confidence in all applications. Discussion: While a link between age and confidence was not found in this study, frequency of use and training in IM and T require further investigation in relation to specific roles.

  9. Nearest unlike neighbor (NUN): an aid to decision confidence estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasarathy, Belur V.

    1995-09-01

    The concept of nearest unlike neighbor (NUN), proposed and explored previously in the design of nearest neighbor (NN) based decision systems, is further exploited in this study to develop a measure of confidence in the decisions made by NN-based decision systems. This measure of confidence, on the basis of comparison with a user-defined threshold, may be used to determine the acceptability of the decision provided by the NN-based decision system. The concepts, associated methodology, and some illustrative numerical examples using the now classical Iris data to bring out the ease of implementation and effectiveness of the proposed innovations are presented.

  10. Two sides of the same coin: Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebreton, Maël; Langdon, Shari; Slieker, Matthijs J; Nooitgedacht, Jip S; Goudriaan, Anna E; Denys, Damiaan; van Holst, Ruth J; Luigjes, Judy

    2018-05-01

    Decisions are accompanied by a feeling of confidence, that is, a belief about the decision being correct. Confidence accuracy is critical, notably in high-stakes situations such as medical or financial decision-making. We investigated how incentive motivation influences confidence accuracy by combining a perceptual task with a confidence incentivization mechanism. By varying the magnitude and valence (gains or losses) of monetary incentives, we orthogonalized their motivational and affective components. Corroborating theories of rational decision-making and motivation, our results first reveal that the motivational value of incentives improves aspects of confidence accuracy. However, in line with a value-confidence interaction hypothesis, we further show that the affective value of incentives concurrently biases confidence reports, thus degrading confidence accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate that the motivational and affective effects of incentives differentially affect how confidence builds on perceptual evidence. Together, these findings may provide new hints about confidence miscalibration in healthy or pathological contexts.

  11. Two sides of the same coin: Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebreton, Maël; Slieker, Matthijs J.; Nooitgedacht, Jip S.; van Holst, Ruth J.; Luigjes, Judy

    2018-01-01

    Decisions are accompanied by a feeling of confidence, that is, a belief about the decision being correct. Confidence accuracy is critical, notably in high-stakes situations such as medical or financial decision-making. We investigated how incentive motivation influences confidence accuracy by combining a perceptual task with a confidence incentivization mechanism. By varying the magnitude and valence (gains or losses) of monetary incentives, we orthogonalized their motivational and affective components. Corroborating theories of rational decision-making and motivation, our results first reveal that the motivational value of incentives improves aspects of confidence accuracy. However, in line with a value-confidence interaction hypothesis, we further show that the affective value of incentives concurrently biases confidence reports, thus degrading confidence accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate that the motivational and affective effects of incentives differentially affect how confidence builds on perceptual evidence. Together, these findings may provide new hints about confidence miscalibration in healthy or pathological contexts. PMID:29854944

  12. Parents' obesity-related behavior and confidence to support behavioral change in their obese child: data from the STAR study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, Lisa N; Xu, Kathleen; Taveras, Elsie M; Hacker, Karen A

    2014-01-01

    Successful childhood obesity interventions frequently focus on behavioral modification and involve parents or family members. Parental confidence in supporting behavior change may be an element of successful family-based prevention efforts. We aimed to determine whether parents' own obesity-related behaviors were related to their confidence in supporting their child's achievement of obesity-related behavioral goals. Cross-sectional analyses of data collected at baseline of a randomized control trial testing a treatment intervention for obese children (n = 787) in primary care settings (n = 14). Five obesity-related behaviors (physical activity, screen time, sugar-sweetened beverage, sleep duration, fast food) were self-reported by parents for themselves and their child. Behaviors were dichotomized on the basis of achievement of behavioral goals. Five confidence questions asked how confident the parent was in helping their child achieve each goal. Logistic regression modeling high confidence was conducted with goal achievement and demographics as independent variables. Parents achieving physical activity or sleep duration goals were significantly more likely to be highly confident in supporting their child's achievement of those goals (physical activity, odds ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval 1.19-2.60; sleep, odds ratio 1.74; 95% confidence interval 1.09-2.79) independent of sociodemographic variables and child's current behavior. Parental achievements of TV watching and fast food goals were also associated with confidence, but significance was attenuated after child's behavior was included in models. Parents' own obesity-related behaviors are factors that may affect their confidence to support their child's behavior change. Providers seeking to prevent childhood obesity should address parent/family behaviors as part of their obesity prevention strategies. Copyright © 2014 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Communication confidence in persons with aphasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babbitt, Edna M; Cherney, Leora R

    2010-01-01

    Communication confidence is a construct that has not been explored in the aphasia literature. Recently, national and international organizations have endorsed broader assessment methods that address quality of life and include participation, activity, and impairment domains as well as psychosocial areas. Individuals with aphasia encounter difficulties in all these areas on a daily basis in living with a communication disorder. Improvements are often reflected in narratives that are not typically included in standard assessments. This article illustrates how a new instrument measuring communication confidence might fit into a broad assessment framework and discusses the interaction of communication confidence, autonomy, and self-determination for individuals living with aphasia.

  14. Confidence building in implementation of geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeki, Hiroyuki

    2004-01-01

    Long-term safety of the disposal system should be demonstrated to the satisfaction of the stakeholders. Convincing arguments are therefore required that instil in the stakeholders confidence in the safety of a particular concept for the siting and design of a geological disposal, given the uncertainties that inevitably exist in its a priori description and in its evolution. The step-wise approach associated with making safety case at each stage is a key to building confidence in the repository development programme. This paper discusses aspects and issues on confidence building in the implementation of HLW disposal in Japan. (author)

  15. Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to open-quotes false alarms.close quotes This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a open-quotes false alarm?close quotes Do these machines and their algorithms that we put our trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

  16. Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to ''false alarms''. This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a ''false alarm''? Do these machines and their algorithms that we put our trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

  17. Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to ''false alarms''. This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a ''false alarm''? Do these machines and their algorithms that they put their trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

  18. The Development of Confidence Limits for Fatigue Strength Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SUTHERLAND, HERBERT J.; VEERS, PAUL S.

    1999-01-01

    Over the past several years, extensive databases have been developed for the S-N behavior of various materials used in wind turbine blades, primarily fiberglass composites. These data are typically presented both in their raw form and curve fit to define their average properties. For design, confidence limits must be placed on these descriptions. In particular, most designs call for the 95/95 design values; namely, with a 95% level of confidence, the designer is assured that 95% of the material will meet or exceed the design value. For such material properties as the ultimate strength, the procedures for estimating its value at a particular confidence level is well defined if the measured values follow a normal or a log-normal distribution. Namely, based upon the number of sample points and their standard deviation, a commonly-found table may be used to determine the survival percentage at a particular confidence level with respect to its mean value. The same is true for fatigue data at a constant stress level (the number of cycles to failure N at stress level S(sub 1)). However, when the stress level is allowed to vary, as with a typical S-N fatigue curve, the procedures for determining confidence limits are not as well defined. This paper outlines techniques for determining confidence limits of fatigue data. Different approaches to estimating the 95/95 level are compared. Data from the MSU/DOE and the FACT fatigue databases are used to illustrate typical results

  19. An Exact Confidence Region in Multivariate Calibration

    OpenAIRE

    Mathew, Thomas; Kasala, Subramanyam

    1994-01-01

    In the multivariate calibration problem using a multivariate linear model, an exact confidence region is constructed. It is shown that the region is always nonempty and is invariant under nonsingular transformations.

  20. How do regulators measure public confidence?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitt, A.; Besenyei, E.

    2006-01-01

    The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. - There are some important elements of confidence: visibility, satisfaction, credibility and reputation. The latter can consist of trust, positive image and knowledge of the role the organisation plays. A good reputation is hard to achieve but easy to lose. - There is a need to define what public confidence is and what to measure. The difficulty is that confidence is a matter of perception of the public, so what we try to measure is the perception. - It is controversial how to take into account the results of confidence measurement because of the influence of the context. It is not an exact science, results should be examined cautiously and surveys should be conducted frequently, at least every two years. - Different experiences were explained: - Quantitative surveys - among the general public or more specific groups like the media; - Qualitative research - with test groups and small panels; - Semi-quantitative studies - among stakeholders who have regular contracts with the regulatory body. It is not clear if the results should be shared with the public or just with other authorities and governmental organisations. - Efforts are needed to increase visibility, which is a prerequisite for confidence. - A practical example of organizing an emergency exercise and an information campaign without taking into account the real concerns of the people was given to show how public confidence can be decreased. - We learned about a new method - the so-called socio-drama - which addresses another issue also connected to confidence - the notion of understanding between stakeholders around a nuclear site. It is another way of looking at confidence in a more restricted group. (authors)

  1. Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven

    2013-10-23

    The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.

  2. Fechner’s law in metacognition: a quantitative model of visual working memory confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Berg, Ronald; Yoo, Aspen H.; Ma, Wei Ji

    2016-01-01

    Although visual working memory (VWM) has been studied extensively, it is unknown how people form confidence judgments about their memories. Peirce (1878) speculated that Fechner’s law – which states that sensation is proportional to the logarithm of stimulus intensity – might apply to confidence reports. Based on this idea, we hypothesize that humans map the precision of their VWM contents to a confidence rating through Fechner’s law. We incorporate this hypothesis into the best available model of VWM encoding and fit it to data from a delayed-estimation experiment. The model provides an excellent account of human confidence rating distributions as well as the relation between performance and confidence. Moreover, the best-fitting mapping in a model with a highly flexible mapping closely resembles the logarithmic mapping, suggesting that no alternative mapping exists that accounts better for the data than Fechner's law. We propose a neural implementation of the model and find that this model also fits the behavioral data well. Furthermore, we find that jointly fitting memory errors and confidence ratings boosts the power to distinguish previously proposed VWM encoding models by a factor of 5.99 compared to fitting only memory errors. Finally, we show that Fechner's law also accounts for metacognitive judgments in a word recognition memory task, which is a first indication that it may be a general law in metacognition. Our work presents the first model to jointly account for errors and confidence ratings in VWM and could lay the groundwork for understanding the computational mechanisms of metacognition. PMID:28221087

  3. Simulation experience enhances physical therapist student confidence in managing a patient in the critical care environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohtake, Patricia J; Lazarus, Marcilene; Schillo, Rebecca; Rosen, Michael

    2013-02-01

    Rehabilitation of patients in critical care environments improves functional outcomes. This finding has led to increased implementation of intensive care unit (ICU) rehabilitation programs, including early mobility, and an associated increased demand for physical therapists practicing in ICUs. Unfortunately, many physical therapists report being inadequately prepared to work in this high-risk environment. Simulation provides focused, deliberate practice in safe, controlled learning environments and may be a method to initiate academic preparation of physical therapists for ICU practice. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of participation in simulation-based management of a patient with critical illness in an ICU setting on levels of confidence and satisfaction in physical therapist students. A one-group, pretest-posttest, quasi-experimental design was used. Physical therapist students (N=43) participated in a critical care simulation experience requiring technical (assessing bed mobility and pulmonary status), behavioral (patient and interprofessional communication), and cognitive (recognizing a patient status change and initiating appropriate responses) skill performance. Student confidence and satisfaction were surveyed before and after the simulation experience. Students' confidence in their technical, behavioral, and cognitive skill performance increased from "somewhat confident" to "confident" following the critical care simulation experience. Student satisfaction was highly positive, with strong agreement the simulation experience was valuable, reinforced course content, and was a useful educational tool. Limitations of the study were the small sample from one university and a control group was not included. Incorporating a simulated, interprofessional critical care experience into a required clinical course improved physical therapist student confidence in technical, behavioral, and cognitive performance measures and was associated with high

  4. [Sources of leader's confidence in organizations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, Hiroshi; Furukawa, Hisataka

    2006-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the sources of confidence that organization leaders had. As potential sources of the confidence, we focused on fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, reflection on good as well as bad job experiences, and awareness of job experiences in terms of commonality, differentiation, and multiple viewpoints. A questionnaire was administered to 170 managers of Japanese companies. Results were as follows: First, confidence in leaders was more strongly related to fulfillment of expectations made by self and others than reflection on and awareness of job experiences. Second, the confidence was weakly related to internal processing of job experiences, in the form of commonality awareness and reflection on good job experiences. And finally, years of managerial experiences had almost no relation to the confidence. These findings suggested that confidence in leaders was directly acquired from fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, rather than indirectly through internal processing of job experiences. Implications of the findings for leadership training were also discussed.

  5. Python based high-level synthesis compiler

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieszewski, Radosław; Pozniak, Krzysztof; Romaniuk, Ryszard

    2014-11-01

    This paper presents a python based High-Level synthesis (HLS) compiler. The compiler interprets an algorithmic description of a desired behavior written in Python and map it to VHDL. FPGA combines many benefits of both software and ASIC implementations. Like software, the mapped circuit is flexible, and can be reconfigured over the lifetime of the system. FPGAs therefore have the potential to achieve far greater performance than software as a result of bypassing the fetch-decode-execute operations of traditional processors, and possibly exploiting a greater level of parallelism. Creating parallel programs implemented in FPGAs is not trivial. This article describes design, implementation and first results of created Python based compiler.

  6. Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younes, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ratkiewicz, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ressler, J. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-09-28

    Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235U(n, f) and 239Pu (n, f) cross sections.

  7. HIGH PERFORMANCE CERIA BASED OXYGEN MEMBRANE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    The invention describes a new class of highly stable mixed conducting materials based on acceptor doped cerium oxide (CeO2-8 ) in which the limiting electronic conductivity is significantly enhanced by co-doping with a second element or co- dopant, such as Nb, W and Zn, so that cerium and the co......-dopant have an ionic size ratio between 0.5 and 1. These materials can thereby improve the performance and extend the range of operating conditions of oxygen permeation membranes (OPM) for different high temperature membrane reactor applications. The invention also relates to the manufacturing of supported...

  8. Psychometric properties of the communication Confidence Rating Scale for Aphasia (CCRSA): phase 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherney, Leora R; Babbitt, Edna M; Semik, Patrick; Heinemann, Allen W

    2011-01-01

    Confidence is a construct that has not been explored previously in aphasia research. We developed the Communication Confidence Rating Scale for Aphasia (CCRSA) to assess confidence in communicating in a variety of activities and evaluated its psychometric properties using rating scale (Rasch) analysis. The CCRSA was administered to 21 individuals with aphasia before and after participation in a computer-based language therapy study. Person reliability of the 8-item CCRSA was .77. The 5-category rating scale demonstrated monotonic increases in average measures from low to high ratings. However, one item ("I follow news, sports, stories on TV/movies") misfit the construct defined by the other items (mean square infit = 1.69, item-measure correlation = .41). Deleting this item improved reliability to .79; the 7 remaining items demonstrated excellent fit to the underlying construct, although there was a modest ceiling effect in this sample. Pre- to posttreatment changes on the 7-item CCRSA measure were statistically significant using a paired samples t test. Findings support the reliability and sensitivity of the CCRSA in assessing participants' self-report of communication confidence. Further evaluation of communication confidence is required with larger and more diverse samples.

  9. Copper infiltrated high speed steels based composites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madej, M.; Lezanski, J.

    2003-01-01

    High hardness, mechanical strength, heat resistance and wear resistance of M3/2 high speed steel (HSS) make it an attractive material. Since technological and economical considerations are equally important, infiltration of high-speed steel skeleton with liquid cooper has proved to be a suitable technique whereby fully dense material is produced at low cost. Attempts have been made to describe the influence of the production process parameters and alloying additives, such as tungsten carbide on the microstructure and mechanical properties of copper infiltrated HSS based composites. The compositions of powder mixtures are 100% M3/2, M3/2+10% Wc, M3/2=30% WC. The powders were uniaxially cold compacted in a cylindrical die at 800 MPa. The green compacts were sintered in vacuum at 1150 o C for 60 minutes. Thereby obtained porous skeletons were subsequently infiltrated with cooper, by gravity method, in vacuum furnace at 1150 o C for 15 minutes. (author)

  10. Nurse leader certification preparation: how are confidence levels impacted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junger, Stacey; Trinkle, Nicole; Hall, Norma

    2016-09-01

    The aim was to examine the effect of a nurse leader certification preparation course on the confidence levels of the participants. Limited literature is available regarding nurse leader development and certifications. Barriers exist related to lack of confidence, high cost, time and lack of access to a preparation course. Nurse leaders (n = 51) completed a pre- and post-survey addressing confidence levels of participants related to the topics addressed in the nurse leader certification preparation course. There were statistically significant increases in confidence levels related to all course content for the participants. At the time of the study, there were 31.4% of participants intending to sit for the certification examination, and 5 of the 51 participants successfully sat for and passed the examination. A nurse leader certification preparation course increases confidence levels of the participants and removes barriers, thereby increasing the number of certifications obtained. The health-care climate is increasingly complex and nurse leaders need the expertise to navigate the ever-changing health-care environment. Certification in a specialty, such as leadership, serves as an indicator of a high level of competence in the field. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew

    2015-01-01

    Leaders in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food industries expressed a unilateral concern over product confidence throughout the total product lifecycle, an unsettling fact for these leaders to manage given that their products affect the lives of millions of people each year. Fueled by the heparin incident of intentional adulteration in 2008, initial efforts for increasing product confidence were focused on improving the confidence of incoming materials, with a belief that supplier performance must be the root cause. As in the heparin case, concern over supplier performance extended deep into the supply chain to include suppliers of the suppliers-which is often a blind spot for pharmaceutical, device, and food manufacturers. Resolved to address the perceived lack of supplier performance, these U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-regulated industries began to adopt the supplier relationship management strategy, developed by the automotive industry, that emphasizes "management" of suppliers for the betterment of the manufacturers. Current product and supplier management strategies, however, have not led to a significant improvement in product confidence. As a result of the enduring concern by industry leaders over the lack of product confidence, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and FDA officials. Through a methodical research approach, data generated by the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers surprisingly pointed to themselves as a source of the lack of product confidence, and revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. It is only through this paradigm shift that manufacturers can work collaboratively with their suppliers as equal partners, instead of viewing their suppliers as "lesser" entities needing to be controlled. The basis of this shift provides manufacturers

  12. Econometric analysis of realized covariation: high frequency based covariance, regression, and correlation in financial economics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler; Shephard, N.

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyses multivariate high frequency financial data using realized covariation. We provide a new asymptotic distribution theory for standard methods such as regression, correlation analysis, and covariance. It will be based on a fixed interval of time (e.g., a day or week), allowing...... the number of high frequency returns during this period to go to infinity. Our analysis allows us to study how high frequency correlations, regressions, and covariances change through time. In particular we provide confidence intervals for each of these quantities....

  13. A High Performance COTS Based Computer Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patte, Mathieu; Grimoldi, Raoul; Trautner, Roland

    2014-08-01

    Using Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) electronic components for space applications is a long standing idea. Indeed the difference in processing performance and energy efficiency between radiation hardened components and COTS components is so important that COTS components are very attractive for use in mass and power constrained systems. However using COTS components in space is not straightforward as one must account with the effects of the space environment on the COTS components behavior. In the frame of the ESA funded activity called High Performance COTS Based Computer, Airbus Defense and Space and its subcontractor OHB CGS have developed and prototyped a versatile COTS based architecture for high performance processing. The rest of the paper is organized as follows: in a first section we will start by recapitulating the interests and constraints of using COTS components for space applications; then we will briefly describe existing fault mitigation architectures and present our solution for fault mitigation based on a component called the SmartIO; in the last part of the paper we will describe the prototyping activities executed during the HiP CBC project.

  14. A systematic review of maternal confidence for physiologic birth: characteristics of prenatal care and confidence measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avery, Melissa D; Saftner, Melissa A; Larson, Bridget; Weinfurter, Elizabeth V

    2014-01-01

    Because a focus on physiologic labor and birth has reemerged in recent years, care providers have the opportunity in the prenatal period to help women increase confidence in their ability to give birth without unnecessary interventions. However, most research has only examined support for women during labor. The purpose of this systematic review was to examine the research literature for information about prenatal care approaches that increase women's confidence for physiologic labor and birth and tools to measure that confidence. Studies were reviewed that explored any element of a pregnant woman's interaction with her prenatal care provider that helped build confidence in her ability to labor and give birth. Timing of interaction with pregnant women included during pregnancy, labor and birth, and the postpartum period. In addition, we looked for studies that developed a measure of women's confidence related to labor and birth. Outcome measures included confidence or similar concepts, descriptions of components of prenatal care contributing to maternal confidence for birth, and reliability and validity of tools measuring confidence. The search of MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Scopus databases provided a total of 893 citations. After removing duplicates and articles that did not meet inclusion criteria, 6 articles were included in the review. Three relate to women's confidence for labor during the prenatal period, and 3 describe tools to measure women's confidence for birth. Research about enhancing women's confidence for labor and birth was limited to qualitative studies. Results suggest that women desire information during pregnancy and want to use that information to participate in care decisions in a relationship with a trusted provider. Further research is needed to develop interventions to help midwives and physicians enhance women's confidence in their ability to give birth and to develop a tool to measure confidence for use during prenatal care. © 2014 by

  15. Graphical interpretation of confidence curves in rankit plots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Blaabjerg, Ole; Andersen, Marianne

    2004-01-01

    A well-known transformation from the bell-shaped Gaussian (normal) curve to a straight line in the rankit plot is investigated, and a tool for evaluation of the distribution of reference groups is presented. It is based on the confidence intervals for percentiles of the calculated Gaussian distri...

  16. Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve P. Verrill; Richard A. Johnson

    2007-01-01

    For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations. To develop these confidence bounds and test, we first establish that estimators based on Newton steps from n-...

  17. Confidence building - is science the only approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bragg, K.

    1990-01-01

    The Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) has begun to develop some simplified methods to determine if it is possible to provide confidence that dose, risk and environmental criteria can be respected without undue reliance on detailed scientific models. The progress to date will be outlined and the merits of this new approach will be compared to the more complex, traditional approach. Stress will be given to generating confidence in both technical and non-technical communities as well as the need to enhance communication between them. 3 refs., 1 tab

  18. Robust High Performance Aquaporin based Biomimetic Membranes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helix Nielsen, Claus; Zhao, Yichun; Qiu, C.

    2013-01-01

    on top of a support membrane. Control membranes, either without aquaporins or with the inactive AqpZ R189A mutant aquaporin served as controls. The separation performance of the membranes was evaluated by cross-flow forward osmosis (FO) and reverse osmosis (RO) tests. In RO the ABM achieved a water......Aquaporins are water channel proteins with high water permeability and solute rejection, which makes them promising for preparing high-performance biomimetic membranes. Despite the growing interest in aquaporin-based biomimetic membranes (ABMs), it is challenging to produce robust and defect...... permeability of ~ 4 L/(m2 h bar) with a NaCl rejection > 97% at an applied hydraulic pressure of 5 bar. The water permeability was ~40% higher compared to a commercial brackish water RO membrane (BW30) and an order of magnitude higher compared to a seawater RO membrane (SW30HR). In FO, the ABMs had > 90...

  19. Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbatsch, T.J.

    1995-11-01

    MCNP's criticality methodology and some basic statistics are reviewed. Confidence intervals are discussed, as well as how to build them and their importance in the presentation of a Monte Carlo result. The combination of MCNP's three k eff estimators is shown, theoretically and empirically, by statistical studies and examples, to be the best k eff estimator. The method of combining estimators is based on a solid theoretical foundation, namely, the Gauss-Markov Theorem in regard to the least squares method. The confidence intervals of the combined estimator are also shown to have correct coverage rates for the examples considered

  20. Two sides of the same coin : Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lebreton, Maël; Langdon, Shari; Slieker, Matthijs J; Nooitgedacht, Jip S; Goudriaan, Anna E; Denys, D.; van Holst, Ruth J; Luigjes, Judy

    2018-01-01

    Decisions are accompanied by a feeling of confidence, that is, a belief about the decision being correct. Confidence accuracy is critical, notably in high-stakes situations such as medical or financial decision-making. We investigated how incentive motivation influences confidence accuracy by

  1. Effect of False Confidence on Asset Allocation Decisions of Households

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swarn Chatterjee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates whether false confidence, as characterized by a high level of personal mastery and a low level of intelligence (IQ, results in frequent investor trading and subsequent investor wealth erosion across time. Using the National Longitudinal Survey (NLSY79, change in wealth and asset allocation across time is modeled as a function of various behavioral, socio-economic and demographic variables drawn from prior literature.  Findings of this research reveal that false confidence is indeed a predictor of trading activity in individual investment assets, and it also has a negative impact on individual wealth creation across time.

  2. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  3. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Qian Sun

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  4. Institutional Confidence in the United States: Attitudes of Secular Americans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabella Kasselstrand

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The First Amendment to the United States’ Constitution addresses freedom of religion and the separation of church and state. However, the historical influence of religion in laws, policies, and political representation have left secular individuals feeling excluded. At the same time, levels of confidence in social and political institutions in the United States are at an all-time low. This begs the question: Is there a relationship between secularity and confidence in various social and political institutions (e.g. the armed forces, churches, major companies, government, police, and political parties? This question is examined using data on the United States from the World Values Survey from 1995–2011. While controlling for a range of key demographics, the findings show a negative relationship between secularity and institutional confidence. More specifically, atheists and nonreligious individuals are less likely than those who are religious to have confidence in all six institutions. Based on previous literature and the empirical evidence presented in this study, we argue that overall lower levels of institutional confidence among secular Americans is an outcome of the exclusion of such individuals from American social life. Thus, it highlights the importance of addressing the stereotypes and prejudice that this minority group faces.

  5. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D

    2015-12-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience-approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain-to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This "emotor" control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on "confidence." Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior.

  6. Errors and Predictors of Confidence in Condom Use amongst Young Australians Attending a Music Festival

    OpenAIRE

    Hall, Karina M.; Brieger, Daniel G.; De Silva, Sukhita H.; Pfister, Benjamin F.; Youlden, Daniel J.; John-Leader, Franklin; Pit, Sabrina W.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. To determine the confidence and ability to use condoms correctly and consistently and the predictors of confidence in young Australians attending a festival. Methods. 288 young people aged 18 to 29 attending a mixed-genre music festival completed a survey measuring demographics, self-reported confidence using condoms, ability to use condoms, and issues experienced when using condoms in the past 12 months. Results. Self-reported confidence using condoms was high (77%). Multivariate...

  7. Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Douglas A.

    This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…

  8. Principles of psychological confidence of NPP operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alpeev, A.S.

    1994-01-01

    The problems of operator interaction with subsystems supporting his activity are discussed from the point of view of formation of his psychological confidence on the basis of the automation intellectual means capabilities. The functions of operator activity supporting subsystems, which realization will provide to decrease greatly the portion of accidents at NPPs connected with mistakes in operator actions, are derived. 6 refs

  9. Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Jaeger

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.

  10. Current Developments in Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Paul

    2009-01-01

    Using published findings and by further analyses of existing data, the structure, validity and utility of the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC) is critically considered. Validity is primarily assessed through the scale's relationship with other existing scales as well as by looking for predicted differences. The utility of the ABC scale…

  11. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  12. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  13. Network Based High Speed Product Innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindgren, Peter

    In the first decade of the 21st century, New Product Development has undergone major changes in the way NPD is managed and organised. This is due to changes in technology, market demands, and in the competencies of companies. As a result NPD organised in different forms of networks is predicted...... to be of ever-increasing importance to many different kinds of companies. This happens at the same times as the share of new products of total turnover and earnings is increasing at unprecedented speed in many firms and industries. The latter results in the need for very fast innovation and product development...... - a need that can almost only be resolved by organising NPD in some form of network configuration. The work of Peter Lindgren is on several aspects of network based high speed product innovation and contributes to a descriptive understanding of this phenomenon as well as with normative theory on how NPD...

  14. Frontline nurse managers' confidence and self-efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyk, Jennifer; Siedlecki, Sandra L; Fitzpatrick, Joyce J

    2016-05-01

    This study was focused on determining relationships between confidence levels and self-efficacy among nurse managers. Frontline nurse managers have a pivotal role in delivering high-quality patient care while managing the associated costs and resources. The competency and skill of nurse managers affect every aspect of patient care and staff well-being as nurse managers are largely responsible for creating work environments in which clinical nurses are able to provide high-quality, patient-centred, holistic care. A descriptive, correlational survey design was used; 85 nurse managers participated. Years in a formal leadership role and confidence scores were found to be significant predictors of self-efficacy scores. Experience as a nurse manager is an important component of confidence and self-efficacy. There is a need to develop educational programmes for nurse managers to enhance their self-confidence and self-efficacy, and to maintain experienced nurse managers in the role. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Energy Efficient Graphene Based High Performance Capacitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Joonwon; Kwon, Oh Seok; Lee, Chang-Soo

    2017-07-10

    Graphene (GRP) is an interesting class of nano-structured electronic materials for various cutting-edge applications. To date, extensive research activities have been performed on the investigation of diverse properties of GRP. The incorporation of this elegant material can be very lucrative in terms of practical applications in energy storage/conversion systems. Among various those systems, high performance electrochemical capacitors (ECs) have become popular due to the recent need for energy efficient and portable devices. Therefore, in this article, the application of GRP for capacitors is described succinctly. In particular, a concise summary on the previous research activities regarding GRP based capacitors is also covered extensively. It was revealed that a lot of secondary materials such as polymers and metal oxides have been introduced to improve the performance. Also, diverse devices have been combined with capacitors for better use. More importantly, recent patents related to the preparation and application of GRP based capacitors are also introduced briefly. This article can provide essential information for future study. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  16. Planning an Availability Demonstration Test with Consideration of Confidence Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Müller

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The full service life of a technical product or system is usually not completed after an initial failure. With appropriate measures, the system can be returned to a functional state. Availability is an important parameter for evaluating such repairable systems: Failure and repair behaviors are required to determine this availability. These data are usually given as mean value distributions with a certain confidence level. Consequently, the availability value also needs to be expressed with a confidence level. This paper first highlights the bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation (BMCS for availability demonstration and inference with confidence intervals based on limited failure and repair data. The BMCS enables point-, steady-state and average availability to be determined with a confidence level based on the pure samples or mean value distributions in combination with the corresponding sample size of failure and repair behavior. Furthermore, the method enables individual sample sizes to be used. A sample calculation of a system with Weibull-distributed failure behavior and a sample of repair times is presented. Based on the BMCS, an extended, new procedure is introduced: the “inverse bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation” (IBMCS to be used for availability demonstration tests with consideration of confidence levels. The IBMCS provides a test plan comprising the required number of failures and repair actions that must be observed to demonstrate a certain availability value. The concept can be applied to each type of availability and can also be applied to the pure samples or distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. It does not require special types of distribution. In other words, for example, a Weibull, a lognormal or an exponential distribution can all be considered as distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. After presenting the IBMCS, a sample calculation will be carried out and the potential of the BMCS and the IBMCS

  17. Challenge for reconstruction of public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuura, S.

    2001-01-01

    Past incidents and scandals that have had a large influence on damaging public confidence in nuclear energy safety are presented. Radiation leak on nuclear-powered ship 'Mutsu' (1974), the T.M.I. incident in 1979, Chernobyl accident (1986), the sodium leak at the Monju reactor (1995), fire and explosion at a low level waste asphalt solidification facility (1997), J.C.O. incident (Tokai- MURA, 1999), are so many examples that have created feelings of distrust and anxiety in society. In order to restore public confidence there is no other course but to be prepared for difficulty and work honestly to our fullest ability, with all steps made openly and accountably. (N.C.)

  18. Tables of Confidence Limits for Proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-09-01

    0.972 180 49 0.319 0.332 0,357 175 165 0.964 0.969 0.976 ISO 50 0.325 0.338 0.363 175 166 0.969 0.973 0.980 180 51 0.331 0.344 0.368 175 167 0.973 0.977...0.528 180 18 0.135 0 145 0.164 180 19 0.141 0.151 0.171 ISO 80 0.495 0,508 0.534 347 UPPER CONFIDENCE LIMIT FOR PROPORTIONS CONFIDENCE LEVEL...500 409 0.8401 0.8459 0.8565 500 355 0.7364 0.7434 0.7564 500 356 0.7383 0.7453 0.7582 500 410 0.8420 0.8478 0 8583 500 357 0.7402 0.7472 0.7602 500

  19. Understanding Confidence Intervals With Visual Representations

    OpenAIRE

    Navruz, Bilgin; Delen, Erhan

    2014-01-01

    In the present paper, we showed how confidence intervals (CIs) are valuable and useful in research studies when they are used in the correct form with correct interpretations. The sixth edition of the APA (2010) Publication Manual strongly recommended reporting CIs in research studies, and it was described as “the best reporting strategy” (p. 34). Misconceptions and correct interpretations of CIs were presented from several textbooks. In addition, limitations of the null hypothesis statistica...

  20. Confidence, Visual Research, and the Aesthetic Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stan Ruecker

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this article is to identify and describe one of the primary purposes of aesthetic quality in the design of computer interfaces and visualization tools. We suggest that humanists can derive advantages in visual research by acknowledging by their efforts to advance aesthetic quality that a significant function of aesthetics in this context is to inspire the user’s confidence. This confidence typically serves to create a sense of trust in the provider of the interface or tool. In turn, this increased trust may result in an increased willingness to engage with the object, on the basis that it demonstrates an attention to detail that promises to reward increased engagement. In addition to confidence, the aesthetic may also contribute to a heightened degree of satisfaction with having spent time using or investigating the object. In the realm of interface design and visualization research, we propose that these aesthetic functions have implications not only for the quality of interactions, but also for the results of the standard measures of performance and preference.

  1. Using the Reliability Theory for Assessing the Decision Confidence Probability for Comparative Life Cycle Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Wei; Larrey-Lassalle, Pyrène; Faure, Thierry; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Roux, Philippe; Mathias, Jean-Denis

    2016-03-01

    Comparative decision making process is widely used to identify which option (system, product, service, etc.) has smaller environmental footprints and for providing recommendations that help stakeholders take future decisions. However, the uncertainty problem complicates the comparison and the decision making. Probability-based decision support in LCA is a way to help stakeholders in their decision-making process. It calculates the decision confidence probability which expresses the probability of a option to have a smaller environmental impact than the one of another option. Here we apply the reliability theory to approximate the decision confidence probability. We compare the traditional Monte Carlo method with a reliability method called FORM method. The Monte Carlo method needs high computational time to calculate the decision confidence probability. The FORM method enables us to approximate the decision confidence probability with fewer simulations than the Monte Carlo method by approximating the response surface. Moreover, the FORM method calculates the associated importance factors that correspond to a sensitivity analysis in relation to the probability. The importance factors allow stakeholders to determine which factors influence their decision. Our results clearly show that the reliability method provides additional useful information to stakeholders as well as it reduces the computational time.

  2. Limitations of high dose carrier based formulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeung, Stewart; Traini, Daniela; Tweedie, Alan; Lewis, David; Church, Tanya; Young, Paul M

    2018-06-10

    This study was performed to investigate how increasing the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) content within a formulation affects the dispersion of particles and the aerosol performance efficiency of a carrier based dry powder inhalable (DPI) formulation, using a custom dry powder inhaler (DPI) development rig. Five formulations with varying concentrations of API beclomethasone dipropionate (BDP) between 1% and 30% (w/w) were formulated as a multi-component carrier system containing coarse lactose and fine lactose with magnesium stearate. The morphology of the formulation and each component were investigated using scanning electron micrographs while the particle size was measured by laser diffraction. The aerosol performance, in terms of aerodynamic diameter, was assessed using the British pharmacopeia Apparatus E cascade impactor (Next generation impactor). Chemical analysis of the API was observed by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Increasing the concentration of BDP in the blend resulted in increasing numbers and size of individual agglomerates and densely packed BDP multi-layers on the surface of the lactose carrier. BDP present within the multi-layer did not disperse as individual primary particles but as dense agglomerates, which led to a decrease in aerosol performance and increased percentage of BDP deposition within the Apparatus E induction port and pre-separator. As the BDP concentration in the blends increases, aerosol performance of the formulation decreases, in an inversely proportional manner. Concurrently, the percentage of API deposition in the induction port and pre-separator could also be linked to the amount of micronized particles (BDP and Micronized composite carrier) present in the formulation. The effect of such dose increase on the behaviour of aerosol dispersion was investigated to gain greater insight in the development and optimisation of higher dosed carrier-based formulations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All

  3. Biased but in Doubt: Conflict and Decision Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Neys, Wim; Cromheeke, Sofie; Osman, Magda

    2011-01-01

    Human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics. A central question is whether the bias results from a failure to detect that the intuitions conflict with traditional normative considerations or from a failure to discard the tempting intuitions. The present study addressed this unresolved debate by using people's decision confidence as a nonverbal index of conflict detection. Participants were asked to indicate how confident they were after solving classic base-rate (Experiment 1) and conjunction fallacy (Experiment 2) problems in which a cued intuitive response could be inconsistent or consistent with the traditional correct response. Results indicated that reasoners showed a clear confidence decrease when they gave an intuitive response that conflicted with the normative response. Contrary to popular belief, this establishes that people seem to acknowledge that their intuitive answers are not fully warranted. Experiment 3 established that younger reasoners did not yet show the confidence decrease, which points to the role of improved bias awareness in our reasoning development. Implications for the long standing debate on human rationality are discussed. PMID:21283574

  4. Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

    2017-02-01

    With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.

  5. SOCIAL MEDIA – VITAL INSTRUMENT IN GAINING CONSUMERS CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela-Cristina VOICU

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given that, currently, the consumer has become more demanding and organizations face some of the greatest challenges due to the economic climate of recent years, the need to build and cultivate strong relationships has become vital not only for the company's success but also for its survival. And solid relationships are built over time through confidence. Trust is one of the most important elements in the process of purchasing and consumer loyalty; it is difficult to obtain but easy to lose. Companies that are enjoying a high degree of confidence benefit from best quotations for their shares, higher profits and a better retention of the best employees. The effects of the lack of confidence are obvious (unsatisfied consumers, lost sales and very expensive for the company. In this context, through the following paper we seek to bring more understanding on how a company can gain the confidence of consumers given that the forms of communication that consumers prefer and that are gaining momentum currently, are taking place online, especially in the social media.

  6. Growth Estimators and Confidence Intervals for the Mean of Negative Binomial Random Variables with Unknown Dispersion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Shilane

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The negative binomial distribution becomes highly skewed under extreme dispersion. Even at moderately large sample sizes, the sample mean exhibits a heavy right tail. The standard normal approximation often does not provide adequate inferences about the data's expected value in this setting. In previous work, we have examined alternative methods of generating confidence intervals for the expected value. These methods were based upon Gamma and Chi Square approximations or tail probability bounds such as Bernstein's inequality. We now propose growth estimators of the negative binomial mean. Under high dispersion, zero values are likely to be overrepresented in the data. A growth estimator constructs a normal-style confidence interval by effectively removing a small, predetermined number of zeros from the data. We propose growth estimators based upon multiplicative adjustments of the sample mean and direct removal of zeros from the sample. These methods do not require estimating the nuisance dispersion parameter. We will demonstrate that the growth estimators' confidence intervals provide improved coverage over a wide range of parameter values and asymptotically converge to the sample mean. Interestingly, the proposed methods succeed despite adding both bias and variance to the normal approximation.

  7. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

  8. National Debate and Public Confidence in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindquist, Ted

    2014-01-01

    Ted Lindquist, coordinator of the Association of Swedish Municipalities with Nuclear Facilities (KSO), closed the first day of conferences. He showed what the nuclear landscape was in Sweden, and in particular that through time there has been a rather good support from the population. He explained that the reason could be the confidence of the public in the national debate. On a more local scale, Ted Lindquist showed how overwhelmingly strong the support was in towns where the industry would like to operate long-term storage facilities

  9. Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Jan

    Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.

  10. Cognitive-behavioural therapy-based intervention to reduce fear of falling in older people: therapy development and randomised controlled trial - the Strategies for Increasing Independence, Confidence and Energy (STRIDE) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, Steve W; Bamford, Claire; Deary, Vincent; Finch, Tracy L; Gray, Jo; MacDonald, Claire; McMeekin, Peter; Sabin, Neil J; Steen, I Nick; Whitney, Sue L; McColl, Elaine M

    2016-07-01

    Falls cause fear, anxiety and loss of confidence, resulting in activity avoidance, social isolation and increasing frailty. The umbrella term for these problems is 'fear of falling', seen in up to 85% of older adults who fall. Evidence of effectiveness of physical and psychological interventions is limited, with no previous studies examining the role of an individually delivered cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) approach. Primary objective To develop and then determine the effectiveness of a new CBT intervention (CBTi) delivered by health-care assistants (HCAs) plus usual care compared with usual care alone in reducing fear of falling. Secondary objectives To measure the impact of the intervention on falls, injuries, functional abilities, anxiety/depression, quality of life, social participation and loneliness; investigate the acceptability of the intervention for patients, family members and professionals and factors that promote or inhibit its implementation; and measure the costs and benefits of the intervention. Phase I CBTi development. Phase II Parallel-group patient randomised controlled trial (RCT) of the new CBTi plus usual care compared with usual care alone. Multidisciplinary falls services. Consecutive community-dwelling older adults, both sexes, aged ≥ 60 years, with excessive or undue fear of falling per Falls Efficacy Scale-International (FES-I) score of > 23. Phase I Development of the CBTi. The CBTi was developed following patient interviews and taught to HCAs to maximise the potential for uptake and generalisability to a UK NHS setting. Phase II RCT. The CBTi was delivered by HCAs weekly for 8 weeks, with a 6-month booster session plus usual care. These were assessed at baseline, 8 weeks, 6 months and 12 months. Primary outcome measure Fear of falling measured by change in FES-I scores at 12 months. Secondary outcome measures These comprised falls, injuries, anxiety/depression [Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS

  11. Confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.; Naberejnev, D.G.

    2004-01-01

    The present communication addresses the topic of symmetric confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution. This distribution is frequently utilized to characterize inherently positive, continuous random variables that are selected to represent many physical quantities in applied nuclear science and technology. The basic formalism is outlined herein and a conjured numerical example is provided for illustration. It is demonstrated that when the uncertainty reflected in a lognormal probability distribution is large, the use of a confidence interval provides much more useful information about the variable used to represent a particular physical quantity than can be had by adhering to the notion that the mean value and standard deviation of the distribution ought to be interpreted as best value and corresponding error, respectively. Furthermore, it is shown that if the uncertainty is very large a disturbing anomaly can arise when one insists on interpreting the mean value and standard deviation as the best value and corresponding error, respectively. Reliance on using the mode and median as alternative parameters to represent the best available knowledge of a variable with large uncertainties is also shown to entail limitations. Finally, a realistic physical example involving the decay of radioactivity over a time period that spans many half-lives is presented and analyzed to further illustrate the concepts discussed in this communication

  12. Impact of an Advanced Cardiac Life Support Simulation Laboratory Experience on Pharmacy Student Confidence and Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Whitney D; Mohorn, Phillip L; Haney, Jason S; Phillips, Cynthia M; Lu, Z Kevin; Clark, Kimberly; Corboy, Alex; Ragucci, Kelly R

    2016-10-25

    Objective. To assess the impact of an advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) simulation on pharmacy student confidence and knowledge. Design. Third-year pharmacy students participated in a simulation experience that consisted of team roles training, high-fidelity ACLS simulations, and debriefing. Students completed a pre/postsimulation confidence and knowledge assessment. Assessment. Overall, student knowledge assessment scores and student confidence scores improved significantly. Student confidence and knowledge changes from baseline were not significantly correlated. Conversely, a significant, weak positive correlation between presimulation studying and both presimulation confidence and presimulation knowledge was discovered. Conclusions. Overall, student confidence and knowledge assessment scores in ACLS significantly improved from baseline; however, student confidence and knowledge were not significantly correlated.

  13. The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

    2009-01-01

    Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new

  14. Assessing Confidence in Performance Assessments Using an Evidence Support Logic Methodology: An Application of Tesla

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egan, M.; Paulley, A.; Lehman, L.; Lowe, J.; Rochette, E.; Baker, St.

    2009-01-01

    The assessment of uncertainties and their implications is a key requirement when undertaking performance assessment (PA) of radioactive waste facilities. Decisions based on the outcome of such assessments become translated into judgments about confidence in the information they provide. This confidence, in turn, depends on uncertainties in the underlying evidence. Even if there is a large amount of information supporting an assessment, it may be only partially relevant, incomplete or less than completely reliable. In order to develop a measure of confidence in the outcome, sources of uncertainty need to be identified and adequately addressed in the development of the PA, or in any overarching strategic decision-making processes. This paper describes a trial application of the technique of Evidence Support Logic (ESL), which has been designed for application in support of 'high stakes' decisions, where important aspects of system performance are subject to uncertainty. The aims of ESL are to identify the amount of uncertainty or conflict associated with evidence relating to a particular decision, and to guide understanding of how evidence combines to support confidence in judgments. Elicitation techniques are used to enable participants in the process to develop a logical hypothesis model that best represents the relationships between different sources of evidence to the proposition under examination. The aim is to identify key areas of subjectivity and other sources of potential bias in the use of evidence (whether for or against the proposition) to support judgments of confidence. Propagation algorithms are used to investigate the overall implications of the logic according to the strength of the underlying evidence and associated uncertainties. (authors)

  15. Post choice information integration as a causal determinant of confidence: Novel data and a computational account.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Rani; Teodorescu, Andrei R; Usher, Marius

    2015-05-01

    Confidence judgments are pivotal in the performance of daily tasks and in many domains of scientific research including the behavioral sciences, psychology and neuroscience. Positive resolution i.e., the positive correlation between choice-correctness and choice-confidence is a critical property of confidence judgments, which justifies their ubiquity. In the current paper, we study the mechanism underlying confidence judgments and their resolution by investigating the source of the inputs for the confidence-calculation. We focus on the intriguing debate between two families of confidence theories. According to single stage theories, confidence is based on the same information that underlies the decision (or on some other aspect of the decision process), whereas according to dual stage theories, confidence is affected by novel information that is collected after the decision was made. In three experiments, we support the case for dual stage theories by showing that post-choice perceptual availability manipulations exert a causal effect on confidence-resolution in the decision followed by confidence paradigm. These finding establish the role of RT2, the duration of the post-choice information-integration stage, as a prime dependent variable that theories of confidence should account for. We then present a novel list of robust empirical patterns ('hurdles') involving RT2 to guide further theorizing about confidence judgments. Finally, we present a unified computational dual stage model for choice, confidence and their latencies namely, the collapsing confidence boundary model (CCB). According to CCB, a diffusion-process choice is followed by a second evidence-integration stage towards a stochastic collapsing confidence boundary. Despite its simplicity, CCB clears the entire list of hurdles. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Building public confidence in the world's nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, C.D.

    1996-01-01

    Public confidence in the nuclear industry requires two things, which are trust and understanding. Trust is an emotional response based upon an instinctive reaction. Understanding, on the other hand, is an intellectual response based upon facts. To gain public confidence, both of these levels must be communicated and proactive strategies must be implemented to do this. To achieve this objective will require confidence and courage in communication programs. Each company operating in the nuclear sector must be proactive in building its individual reputation and must not retreat from controversy. Similarly, each industry body must continue the Herculean task of building understanding. The nuclear industry has powerful arguments. ICI, BP or Ford did not achieve their licences to operate by keeping their heads down, they achieved their current market positions by building a positive corporate reputation within their respective industrial contexts over many decades. In order to achieve a similar position for the nuclear industry and the companies, their examples must be followed. If it is continued to 'keep the heads down' in the trenches, public opinion will surely bury within it. (G.K.)

  17. Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

    2017-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

  18. False memories and memory confidence in borderline patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Lisa; Wingenfeld, Katja; Spitzer, Carsten; Nagel, Matthias; Moritz, Steffen

    2013-12-01

    Mixed results have been obtained regarding memory in patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Prior reports and anecdotal evidence suggests that patients with BPD are prone to false memories but this assumption has to been put to firm empirical test, yet. Memory accuracy and confidence was assessed in 20 BPD patients and 22 healthy controls using a visual variant of the false memory (Deese-Roediger-McDermott) paradigm which involved a negative and a positive-valenced picture. Groups did not differ regarding veridical item recognition. Importantly, patients did not display more false memories than controls. At trend level, borderline patients rated more items as new with high confidence compared to healthy controls. The results tentatively suggest that borderline patients show uncompromised visual memory functions and display no increased susceptibility for distorted memories. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Confidence crisis of results in biomechanics research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudson, Duane

    2017-11-01

    Many biomechanics studies have small sample sizes and incorrect statistical analyses, so reporting of inaccurate inferences and inflated magnitude of effects are common in the field. This review examines these issues in biomechanics research and summarises potential solutions from research in other fields to increase the confidence in the experimental effects reported in biomechanics. Authors, reviewers and editors of biomechanics research reports are encouraged to improve sample sizes and the resulting statistical power, improve reporting transparency, improve the rigour of statistical analyses used, and increase the acceptance of replication studies to improve the validity of inferences from data in biomechanics research. The application of sports biomechanics research results would also improve if a larger percentage of unbiased effects and their uncertainty were reported in the literature.

  20. Technology in a crisis of confidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Damodaran, G R

    1979-04-01

    The power that technological progress has given to engineers is examined to see if there has been a corresponding growth in human happiness. A credit/debit approach is discussed, whereby technological advancement is measured against the criteria of social good. The credit side includes medicine, agriculture, and energy use, while the debit side lists pollution, unequal distribution of technology and welfare, modern weaponry, resource depletion, and a possible decline in the quality of life. The present anti-technologists claim the debit side is now predominant, but the author challenges this position by examining the role of technology and the engineer in the society. He sees a need for renewed self-confidence and a sense of direction among engineers, but is generally optimistic that technology and civilization will continue to be intertwined. (DCK)

  1. Considering public confidence in developing regulatory programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, S.J.

    2001-01-01

    In the area of public trust and in any investment, planning and strategy are important. While it is accepted in the United States that an essential part of our mission is to leverage our resources to improving Public Confidence this performance goal must be planned for, managed and measured. Similar to our premier performance goal of Maintaining Safety, a strategy must be developed and integrated with our external stake holders but with internal regulatory staff as well. In order to do that, business is to be conducted in an open environment, the basis for regulatory decisions has to be available through public documents and public meetings, communication must be done in clear and consistent terms. (N.C.)

  2. Limited test data: The choice between confidence limits and inverse probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nichols, P.

    1975-01-01

    For a unit which has been successfully designed to a high standard of reliability, any test programme of reasonable size will result in only a small number of failures. In these circumstances the failure rate estimated from the tests will depend on the statistical treatment applied. When a large number of units is to be manufactured, an unexpected high failure rate will certainly result in a large number of failures, so it is necessary to guard against optimistic unrepresentative test results by using a confidence limit approach. If only a small number of production units is involved, failures may not occur even with a higher than expected failure rate, and so one may be able to accept a method which allows for the possibility of either optimistic or pessimistic test results, and in this case an inverse probability approach, based on Bayes' theorem, might be used. The paper first draws attention to an apparently significant difference in the numerical results from the two methods, particularly for the overall probability of several units arranged in redundant logic. It then discusses a possible objection to the inverse method, followed by a demonstration that, for a large population and a very reasonable choice of prior probability, the inverse probability and confidence limit methods give the same numerical result. Finally, it is argued that a confidence limit approach is overpessimistic when a small number of production units is involved, and that both methods give the same answer for a large population. (author)

  3. What are effective techniques for improving public confidence or restoring lost confidence in a regulator?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harbitz, O.; Isaksson, R.

    2006-01-01

    The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. The following list contains thoughts related to restoring lost confidence: - hard, long lasting event; - strategy: maximum transparency; - to listen, be open, give phone numbers etc. - ways to rebuild trust: frequent communication, being there, open and transparent; - don't be too defensive; if things could be done better, say it; - technical staff and public affair staff together from the beginning - answer all questions; - classifications, actions, instructions that differ much from the earlier ones must be well explained and motivated - and still cause a lot of problems; - things may turn out to be political; - communicative work in an early stage saves work later; - communication experts must be working shoulder to shoulder with other staff; On handling emergencies in general, some recipes proposed are: - better to over react than to under react; - do not avoid extreme actions: hit hard, hit fast; - base your decisions in strict principles; - first principle: public safety first; - when you are realizing plant A, you must have a plant B in your pocket: - be transparent - from the beginning; - crisis communication: early, frequent etc - people need to see political leaders, someone who is making decisions - technical experts are needed but are not enough. On how to involve stakeholders and the public in decision making, recommendations are: - new kind of thinking -. demanding for a organisation; - go to local level, meet local people, speak language people understand, you have to start from the very beginning - introducing yourself tell who you are and why you are there. (authors)

  4. Chinese Management Research Needs Self-Confidence but not Over-confidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xin; Ma, Li

    2018-01-01

    Chinese management research aims to contribute to global management knowledge by offering rigorous and innovative theories and practical recommendations both for managing in China and outside. However, two seemingly opposite directions that researchers are taking could prove detrimental......-confidence, limiting theoretical innovation and practical relevance. Yet going in the other direction of overly indigenous research reflects over-confidence, often isolating the Chinese management research from the mainstream academia and at times, even becoming anti-science. A more integrated approach of conducting...... to the healthy development of Chinese management research. We argue that the two directions share a common ground that lies in the mindset regarding the confidence in the work on and from China. One direction of simply following the American mainstream on academic rigor demonstrates a lack of self...

  5. Analysis of Mathematical Communication Skills and Confidence of 10th Grader of SMK in Geometry Material Viewed from Cognitive Style

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elanda Laksinta Putri

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study were to describe the mathematical communication skills and the confidence of grade X SMK students on Van Hiele model geometry learning based on their cognitive styles. It was a qualitative descriptive research. The subjects were 2 impulsive students and 2 reflective students which were selected with MFFT instrument. The data collection techniques were mathematical communication skills tests (written and orally, interviews, documentation, attitude scale and activity observation sheets. The results showed that both written and orally, reflective students were able to meet 5 indicators of mathematical communication skills, and less meet another indicators. While, impulsive students less meet all of the mathematical communication skills indictors. The impulsive students confidence was in the medium category. In contrary, the reflective students confidence was in the high category.

  6. Can information surety be assessed with high confidence?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, J.J.; Fletcher, S.K.; Halbgewachs, R.D.; Jansma, R.M.; Sands, P.D.; Watterberg, P.A.; Wyss, G.D.

    1994-01-01

    Several basic reasons are given to support the position that an integrated, systems methodology entailing probabilistic assessment offers the best means for addressing the problems in software safety. The recognized hard problems in software safety, or safety per se, and some of the techniques for hazard identification and analysis are then discussed relative to their specific strengths and limitations. The paper notes that it is the combination of techniques that will lead to safer systems, and that more experience, examples, and applications of techniques are needed to understand the limits to which software safety can be assessed. Lastly, some on-going project work at Sandia National Laboratories on developing a solution methodology is presented

  7. High-Confidence Flow Accelerated Corrosion Screening Technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryu, Kyung Ha; Kim, Ji Hak; Hwang, Il Soon; Lee, Na Young; Kim, Ji Hyun

    2008-01-01

    All carbon steel pipes with fluid traveling through it could potentially be threatened by flowing fluid have a potential threat of Flow Accelerated Corrosion (FAC). FAC in a nuclear power plant (NPP) could cause not only pipe failure leading but fatalities sometimes. It is almost impossible to inspect all carbon steel pipes in NPPs, and FAC prediction programs such as CHECWORKS, WATHEC, and BRT-CICERO have limited capability to in predicting FAC area

  8. An Exploration of Students' Science Learning Interest Related to Their Cognitive Anxiety, Cognitive Load, Self-Confidence and Learning Progress Using Inquiry-Based Learning with an iPad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jon-Chao; Hwang, Ming-Yueh; Tai, Kai-Hsin; Tsai, Chi-Ruei

    2017-01-01

    Based on the cognitive-affective theory, the present study designed a science inquiry learning model, "predict-observe-explain" (POE), and implemented it in an app called "WhyWhy" to examine the effectiveness of students' science inquiry learning practice. To understand how POE can affect the cognitive-affective learning…

  9. Evaluating best educational practices, student satisfaction, and self-confidence in simulation: A descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapko, Karen A; Ferranto, Mary Lou Gemma; Blasiman, Rachael; Shelestak, Debra

    2018-01-01

    The National League for Nursing (NLN) has endorsed simulation as a necessary teaching approach to prepare students for the demanding role of professional nursing. Questions arise about the suitability of simulation experiences to educate students. Empirical support for the effect of simulation on patient outcomes is sparse. Most studies on simulation report only anecdotal results rather than data obtained using evaluative tools. The aim of this study was to examine student perception of best educational practices in simulation and to evaluate their satisfaction and self-confidence in simulation. This study was a descriptive study designed to explore students' perceptions of the simulation experience over a two-year period. Using the Jeffries framework, a Simulation Day was designed consisting of serial patient simulations using high and medium fidelity simulators and live patient actors. The setting for the study was a regional campus of a large Midwestern Research 2 university. The convenience sample consisted of 199 participants and included sophomore, junior, and senior nursing students enrolled in the baccalaureate nursing program. The Simulation Days consisted of serial patient simulations using high and medium fidelity simulators and live patient actors. Participants rotated through four scenarios that corresponded to their level in the nursing program. Data was collected in two consecutive years. Participants completed both the Educational Practices Questionnaire (Student Version) and the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning Scale. Results provide strong support for using serial simulation as a learning tool. Students were satisfied with the experience, felt confident in their performance, and felt the simulations were based on sound educational practices and were important for learning. Serial simulations and having students experience simulations more than once in consecutive years is a valuable method of clinical instruction. When

  10. Re-thinking accountability: trust versus confidence in medical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checkland, K; Marshall, M; Harrison, S

    2004-04-01

    In seeking to prevent a reoccurrence of scandals such as that involving cardiac surgery in Bristol, the UK government has adopted a model of regulation that uses rules and surveillance as a way of both improving the quality of care delivered and increasing confidence in healthcare institutions. However, this approach may actually act to reduce confidence and trust while also reducing the moral motivation of practitioners. Accountability in health care is discussed, and it is suggested that openness about the difficult dilemmas that arise when practitioners have a duty to be accountable to more than one audience may be an alternative means of restoring trust. A greater emphasis on the sharing of information between individual health professionals and their patients would increase trust and would allow patients to hold their doctors to account for the quality of care they receive. Concentrating more on developing trust by the sharing of information and less on the futile search for complete confidence in systems and rules may improve the quality of care delivered while also nurturing the moral motivation of professionals upon which the delivery of high quality health care depends.

  11. The theory of confidence-building measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darilek, R.E.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the theory of Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) in two ways. First, it employs a top-down, deductively oriented approach to explain CBM theory in terms of the arms control goals and objectives to be achieved, the types of measures to be employed, and the problems or limitations likely to be encountered when applying CBMs to conventional or nuclear forces. The chapter as a whole asks how various types of CBMs might function during a political - military escalation from peacetime to a crisis and beyond (i.e. including conflict), as well as how they might operate in a de-escalatory environment. In pursuit of these overarching issues, the second section of the chapter raises a fundamental but complicating question: how might the next all-out war actually come aoubt - by unpremeditated escalation resulting from misunderstanding or miscalculation, or by premeditation resulting in a surprise attack? The second section of the paper addresses this question, explores its various implications for CBMs, and suggests the potential contribution of different types of CBMs toward successful resolution of the issues involved

  12. Changing job seekers' image perceptions during recruitment visits: the moderating role of belief confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaughter, Jerel E; Cable, Daniel M; Turban, Daniel B

    2014-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to understand how an important construct in social psychology-confidence in one's beliefs-could both (a) influence the effectiveness of organizations' recruiting processes and (b) be changed during recruitment. Using a sample of recruits to a branch of the United States military, the authors studied belief confidence before and after recruits' formal visits to the organization's recruiting stations. Personal sources of information had a stronger influence on recruits' belief confidence than impersonal sources. Moreover, recruits' confidence in their initial beliefs affected how perceptions of the recruiter changed their employer images. Among participants with low-initial confidence, the relation between recruitment experiences and employer images was positive and linear across the whole range of recruitment experiences. Among recruits with high-initial confidence, however, the recruitment experience-image relationship was curvilinear, such that recruitment experiences were related to images only at more positive recruitment experiences. The relationship between recruitment experiences and changes in belief confidence was also curvilinear, such that only more positive recruitment experiences led to changes in confidence. These results indicate not only that belief confidence influences the effectiveness of recruiting efforts but also that recruiting efforts can influence belief confidence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Daniel B

    2007-02-01

    Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.

  14. High sensitivity MOSFET-based neutron dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fragopoulou, M.; Konstantakos, V.; Zamani, M.; Siskos, S.; Laopoulos, T.; Sarrabayrouse, G.

    2010-01-01

    A new dosemeter based on a metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistor sensitive to both neutrons and gamma radiation was manufactured at LAAS-CNRS Laboratory, Toulouse, France. In order to be used for neutron dosimetry, a thin film of lithium fluoride was deposited on the surface of the gate of the device. The characteristics of the dosemeter, such as the dependence of its response to neutron dose and dose rate, were investigated. The studied dosemeter was very sensitive to gamma rays compared to other dosemeters proposed in the literature. Its response in thermal neutrons was found to be much higher than in fast neutrons and gamma rays.

  15. Modeling of a Robust Confidence Band for the Power Curve of a Wind Turbine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Wilmar; Méndez, Alfredo; Maldonado-Correa, Jorge L; Balleteros, Francisco

    2016-12-07

    Having an accurate model of the power curve of a wind turbine allows us to better monitor its operation and planning of storage capacity. Since wind speed and direction is of a highly stochastic nature, the forecasting of the power generated by the wind turbine is of the same nature as well. In this paper, a method for obtaining a robust confidence band containing the power curve of a wind turbine under test conditions is presented. Here, the confidence band is bound by two curves which are estimated using parametric statistical inference techniques. However, the observations that are used for carrying out the statistical analysis are obtained by using the binning method, and in each bin, the outliers are eliminated by using a censorship process based on robust statistical techniques. Then, the observations that are not outliers are divided into observation sets. Finally, both the power curve of the wind turbine and the two curves that define the robust confidence band are estimated using each of the previously mentioned observation sets.

  16. Thought confidence as a determinant of persuasion: the self-validation hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petty, Richard E; Briñol, Pablo; Tormala, Zakary L

    2002-05-01

    Previous research in the domain of attitude change has described 2 primary dimensions of thinking that impact persuasion processes and outcomes: the extent (amount) of thinking and the direction (valence) of issue-relevant thought. The authors examined the possibility that another, more meta-cognitive aspect of thinking is also important-the degree of confidence people have in their own thoughts. Four studies test the notion that thought confidence affects the extent of persuasion. When positive thoughts dominate in response to a message, increasing confidence in those thoughts increases persuasion, but when negative thoughts dominate, increasing confidence decreases persuasion. In addition, using self-reported and manipulated thought confidence in separate studies, the authors provide evidence that the magnitude of the attitude-thought relationship depends on the confidence people have in their thoughts. Finally, the authors also show that these self-validation effects are most likely in situations that foster high amounts of information processing activity.

  17. Examining Belief and Confidence in Schizophrenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Dan W.; Averbeck, Bruno B.; Frith, Chris D.; Shergill, Sukhwinder S.

    2018-01-01

    Background People with psychoses often report fixed, delusional beliefs that are sustained even in the presence of unequivocal contrary evidence. Such delusional beliefs are the result of integrating new and old evidence inappropriately in forming a cognitive model. We propose and test a cognitive model of belief formation using experimental data from an interactive “Rock Paper Scissors” game. Methods Participants (33 controls and 27 people with schizophrenia) played a competitive, time-pressured interactive two-player game (Rock, Paper, Scissors). Participant’s behavior was modeled by a generative computational model using leaky-integrator and temporal difference methods. This model describes how new and old evidence is integrated to form both a playing strategy to beat the opponent and provide a mechanism for reporting confidence in one’s playing strategy to win against the opponent Results People with schizophrenia fail to appropriately model their opponent’s play despite consistent (rather than random) patterns that can be exploited in the simulated opponent’s play. This is manifest as a failure to weigh existing evidence appropriately against new evidence. Further, participants with schizophrenia show a ‘jumping to conclusions’ bias, reporting successful discovery of a winning strategy with insufficient evidence. Conclusions The model presented suggests two tentative mechanisms in delusional belief formation – i) one for modeling patterns in other’s behavior, where people with schizophrenia fail to use old evidence appropriately and ii) a meta-cognitive mechanism for ‘confidence’ in such beliefs where people with schizophrenia overweight recent reward history in deciding on the value of beliefs about the opponent. PMID:23521846

  18. The Selective Cue Integration Framework: A Theory of Postidentification Witness Confidence Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charman, Steve D.; Carlucci, Marianna; Vallano, Jon; Gregory, Amy Hyman

    2010-01-01

    The current manuscript proposes a theory of how witnesses assess their confidence following a lineup identification, called the selective cue integration framework (SCIF). Drawing from past research on the postidentification feedback effect, the SCIF details a three-stage process of confidence assessment that is based largely on a…

  19. The Relationship between a Women's Leadership Development Program and Participant Self-Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, Janelle Perron

    2009-01-01

    According to Lundeberg, Fox, and Punccohar (1994), the reason that there are fewer women in certain professions is because of a lack of self-confidence. In a review of the literature, they found studies reporting a lack of self-confidence in sixth-grade girls, high school students, and women in undergraduate and graduate school. In her work on…

  20. GaN-based High Power High Frequency Wide Range LLC Resonant Converter, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — SET Group will design, build and demonstrate a Gallium Nitride (GaN) based High Power High Frequency Wide Range LLC Resonant Converter capable of handling high power...

  1. High Performance Graphene Oxide Based Rubber Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Yingyan; Wen, Shipeng; Chen, Yulong; Zhang, Fazhong; Panine, Pierre; Chan, Tung W.; Zhang, Liqun; Liang, Yongri; Liu, Li

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, graphene oxide/styrene-butadiene rubber (GO/SBR) composites with complete exfoliation of GO sheets were prepared by aqueous-phase mixing of GO colloid with SBR latex and a small loading of butadiene-styrene-vinyl-pyridine rubber (VPR) latex, followed by their co-coagulation. During co-coagulation, VPR not only plays a key role in the prevention of aggregation of GO sheets but also acts as an interface-bridge between GO and SBR. The results demonstrated that the mechanical properties of the GO/SBR composite with 2.0 vol.% GO is comparable with those of the SBR composite reinforced with 13.1 vol.% of carbon black (CB), with a low mass density and a good gas barrier ability to boot. The present work also showed that GO-silica/SBR composite exhibited outstanding wear resistance and low-rolling resistance which make GO-silica/SBR very competitive for the green tire application, opening up enormous opportunities to prepare high performance rubber composites for future engineering applications. PMID:23974435

  2. Learning about confidence intervals with software R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gariela Gonçalves

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available 0 0 1 202 1111 USAL 9 2 1311 14.0 Normal 0 21 false false false ES JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:ES; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through the proposal methodology, the acquisition of basic skills in statistical inference and to promote the positive relationships between teachers and students. It presents also a comparative study between the methodologies used and their quantitative and qualitative results on two consecutive school years, in several indicators. The data used in the study were obtained from the students to the exam questions in the years 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, from the achievement of a working group in 2011/2012 and via the responses to a questionnaire (optional and anonymous also applied in 2011 / 2012. In terms of results, we emphasize a better performance of students in the examination questions in 2011/2012, the year that students used the software R, and a very favorable student’s perspective about

  3. Mechanism of high-temperature resistant water-base mud

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, P

    1981-01-01

    Based on experiments, the causes and laws governing the changes in the performance of water-base mud under high temperature are analyzed, and the requisites and mechanism of treating agents resisting high temperature are discussed. Ways and means are sought for inhibiting, delaying and making use of the effect of high temperature on the performance of mud, while new ideas and systematic views have been expressed on the preparation of treating agents and set-up of a high temperature resistant water-base mud system. High temperature dispersion and high temperature surface inactivation of clay in the mud, as well as their effect and method of utilization are reviewed. Subjects also touched upon include degradation and cross-linking of the high-temperature resistant treating agents, their use and effect. Based on the above, the preparation of a water-base and system capable of resisting 180 to 250/sup 0/C is recommended.

  4. Determining frequentist confidence limits using a directed parameter space search

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniel, Scott F.; Connolly, Andrew J.; Schneider, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter space by intelligently targeting likelihood evaluations so as to quickly and accurately characterize the likelihood surface in both low- and high-likelihood regions. We compare our algorithm to Bayesian credible limits derived by the well-tested Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using both multi-modal toy likelihood functions and the seven yr Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe cosmic microwave background likelihood function. We find that our algorithm correctly identifies the location, general size, and general shape of high-likelihood regions in parameter space while being more robust against multi-modality than MCMC.

  5. Balance confidence is related to features of balance and gait in individuals with chronic stroke

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schinkel-Ivy, Alison; Wong, Jennifer S.; Mansfield, Avril

    2016-01-01

    Reduced balance confidence is associated with impairments in features of balance and gait in individuals with sub-acute stroke. However, an understanding of these relationships in individuals at the chronic stage of stroke recovery is lacking. This study aimed to quantify relationships between balance confidence and specific features of balance and gait in individuals with chronic stroke. Participants completed a balance confidence questionnaire and clinical balance assessment (quiet standing, walking, and reactive stepping) at 6 months post-discharge from inpatient stroke rehabilitation. Regression analyses were performed using balance confidence as a predictor variable and quiet standing, walking, and reactive stepping outcome measures as the dependent variables. Walking velocity was positively correlated with balance confidence, while medio-lateral centre of pressure excursion (quiet standing) and double support time, step width variability, and step time variability (walking) were negatively correlated with balance confidence. This study provides insight into the relationships between balance confidence and balance and gait measures in individuals with chronic stroke, suggesting that individuals with low balance confidence exhibited impaired control of quiet standing as well as walking characteristics associated with cautious gait strategies. Future work should identify the direction of these relationships to inform community-based stroke rehabilitation programs for individuals with chronic stroke, and determine the potential utility of incorporating interventions to improve balance confidence into these programs. PMID:27955809

  6. Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Rego, Henio H. A.; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2017-01-01

    Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index—both generated by our model—are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant. PMID:28231255

  7. Sources of sport confidence, imagery type and performance among competitive athletes: the mediating role of sports confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.

  8. Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionut Bebu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT, and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates.

  9. Curling for Confidence: Psychophysical Benefits of Curling for Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Rachael C; Rakhamilova, Zina; Gage, William H; Baker, Joseph

    2018-04-01

    While physical activity is increasingly promoted for older adults, there is a paucity of sport promotion, which has distinct benefits from exercise and remains stereotypically associated with younger age. Curling is a moderately intense and safe sport that continues to gain popularity; however, no research has investigated psychophysical benefits of curling for older adults. The present study compares high-experience (20+ years; n = 63) and low-experience (<20 years; n = 53) curlers (aged 60+ years) with older adult noncurlers (n = 44) on measures of daily functionality, balance confidence, and perceptions of the aging process. While no significant differences were found between high- and low-experience curlers, any level of experience reported significantly better functionality, physical confidence, and aging attitudes compared to noncurlers (p ≤ .05). Although further research is necessary, the results suggest that any level of curling experience can enhance older adult psychophysical well-being, and warrants consideration for physical activity promotion and falls prevention programs.

  10. Elevation-based upscaling of organic carbon stocks in High-Arctic permafrost terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weiss, Niels; Faucherre, Samuel; Lampiris, Nikos

    2017-01-01

    Accurate quantity and distribution estimates of permafrost soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are needed to project potential feedbacks to climate, following warming. Still, upscaling from local field observations to regional estimates to circumarctic assessments remains a challenge. Here we explore...... elevation-based upscaling techniques for High-Arctic permafrost SOC stocks. We combine two detailed, high-resolution SOC inventories on Spitsbergen (Svalbard) with regional validation data. We find a clear relationship between elevation and SOC content, and use this observed exponential correlation, as well...... as discrete elevation classes, as upscaling models for Spitsbergen. We estimate the total amount of permafrost SOC currently present in soils on Spitsbergen to be 105.36 Tg (0.11 Pg), with a mean SOC content of 2.84 ± 0.74 kg C m−2 (mean ± 95% confidence interval). Excluding glaciers and permanent snowfields...

  11. Alternative confidence measure for local matching stereo algorithms

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ndhlovu, T

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The authors present a confidence measure applied to individual disparity estimates in local matching stereo correspondence algorithms. It aims at identifying textureless areas, where most local matching algorithms fail. The confidence measure works...

  12. nigerian students' self-confidence in responding to statements

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Temechegn

    Altogether the test is made up of 40 items covering students' ability to recall definition ... confidence interval within which student have confidence in their choice of the .... is mentioned these equilibrium systems come to memory of the learner.

  13. The Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and Identification Accuracy: A New Synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wixted, John T; Wells, Gary L

    2017-05-01

    The U.S. legal system increasingly accepts the idea that the confidence expressed by an eyewitness who identified a suspect from a lineup provides little information as to the accuracy of that identification. There was a time when this pessimistic assessment was entirely reasonable because of the questionable eyewitness-identification procedures that police commonly employed. However, after more than 30 years of eyewitness-identification research, our understanding of how to properly conduct a lineup has evolved considerably, and the time seems ripe to ask how eyewitness confidence informs accuracy under more pristine testing conditions (e.g., initial, uncontaminated memory tests using fair lineups, with no lineup administrator influence, and with an immediate confidence statement). Under those conditions, mock-crime studies and police department field studies have consistently shown that, for adults, (a) confidence and accuracy are strongly related and (b) high-confidence suspect identifications are remarkably accurate. However, when certain non-pristine testing conditions prevail (e.g., when unfair lineups are used), the accuracy of even a high-confidence suspect ID is seriously compromised. Unfortunately, some jurisdictions have not yet made reforms that would create pristine testing conditions and, hence, our conclusions about the reliability of high-confidence identifications cannot yet be applied to those jurisdictions. However, understanding the information value of eyewitness confidence under pristine testing conditions can help the criminal justice system to simultaneously achieve both of its main objectives: to exonerate the innocent (by better appreciating that initial, low-confidence suspect identifications are error prone) and to convict the guilty (by better appreciating that initial, high-confidence suspect identifications are surprisingly accurate under proper testing conditions).

  14. Confidence of model based shape reconstruction from sparse data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baka, N.; de Bruijne, Marleen; Reiber, J. H. C.

    2010-01-01

    Statistical shape models (SSM) are commonly applied for plausible interpolation of missing data in medical imaging. However, when fitting a shape model to sparse information, many solutions may fit the available data. In this paper we derive a constrained SSM to fit noisy sparse input landmarks...

  15. Visualizing Confidence in Cluster-Based Ensemble Weather Forecast Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumpf, Alexander; Tost, Bianca; Baumgart, Marlene; Riemer, Michael; Westermann, Rudiger; Rautenhaus, Marc

    2018-01-01

    In meteorology, cluster analysis is frequently used to determine representative trends in ensemble weather predictions in a selected spatio-temporal region, e.g., to reduce a set of ensemble members to simplify and improve their analysis. Identified clusters (i.e., groups of similar members), however, can be very sensitive to small changes of the selected region, so that clustering results can be misleading and bias subsequent analyses. In this article, we - a team of visualization scientists and meteorologists-deliver visual analytics solutions to analyze the sensitivity of clustering results with respect to changes of a selected region. We propose an interactive visual interface that enables simultaneous visualization of a) the variation in composition of identified clusters (i.e., their robustness), b) the variability in cluster membership for individual ensemble members, and c) the uncertainty in the spatial locations of identified trends. We demonstrate that our solution shows meteorologists how representative a clustering result is, and with respect to which changes in the selected region it becomes unstable. Furthermore, our solution helps to identify those ensemble members which stably belong to a given cluster and can thus be considered similar. In a real-world application case we show how our approach is used to analyze the clustering behavior of different regions in a forecast of "Tropical Cyclone Karl", guiding the user towards the cluster robustness information required for subsequent ensemble analysis.

  16. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to the...

  17. 75 FR 81037 - Waste Confidence Decision Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-23

    ... radioactive wastes produced by NPPs ``can be safely disposed of, to determine when such disposal or offsite... safe permanent disposal of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) would be available when they were needed... proceedings designed to assess the degree of assurance that radioactive wastes generated by nuclear power...

  18. Empowerment as Interactions that Generate Self-Confidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poder, Poul

    2010-01-01

    to address this gap in understanding by theorizing how confidence and other positive emotions contribute to personal agency, which is an essential aspect of the empowerment process.                       It is generally understood that confidence – meaning faith in oneself as opposed to conceit or arrogance...... by particular social interactions that promote recognition and access to relevant resources for action. Drawing on emotion-focused sociological theory about agency and emotional energy, and Fredrickson’s ‘build and broaden’ theory of positive emotions, I argue that the focus on consciousness and intentionality...... as the defining features of human agency has led us to downplay the fact that agency is primarily an emotional phenomenon. As such, it is also dynamic and situational, since it is highly dependent on interactions that engender emotional energy and positive emotions that fuel and widen agency. As an example...

  19. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  20. High-Purity Glasses Based on Arsenic Chalcogenides

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-06-01

    Chemical interaction of chalcogenides and some impurities (CS 2, TeO2 ) with the quartz glass at high temperature leads to the thin layers formation...UNCLASSIFIED Defense Technical Information Center Compilation Part Notice ADPO1 1523 TITLE: High-Purity Glasses Based on Arsenic Chalcogenides...Materials Vol. 3, No. 2, June 2001, p. 341 - 349 HIGH-PURITY GLASSES BASED ON ARSENIC CHALCOGENIDES M. F. Churbanov, I. V. Scripachev, G. E. Snopatin, V. S

  1. Characteristics Data Base: Programmer's guide to the High-Level Waste Data Base

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, K.E.; Salmon, R.

    1990-08-01

    The High-Level Waste Data Base is a menu-driven PC data base developed as part of OCRWM's technical data base on the characteristics of potential repository wastes, which also includes spent fuel and other materials. This programmer's guide completes the documentation for the High-Level Waste Data Base, the user's guide having been published previously. 3 figs

  2. Distribution of the product confidence limits for the indirect effect: Program PRODCLIN

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, David P.; Fritz, Matthew S.; Williams, Jason; Lockwood, Chondra M.

    2010-01-01

    This article describes a program, PRODCLIN (distribution of the PRODuct Confidence Limits for INdirect effects), written for SAS, SPSS, and R, that computes confidence limits for the product of two normal random variables. The program is important because it can be used to obtain more accurate confidence limits for the indirect effect, as demonstrated in several recent articles (MacKinnon, Lockwood, & Williams, 2004; Pituch, Whittaker, & Stapleton, 2005). Tests of the significance of and confidence limits for indirect effects based on the distribution of the product method have more accurate Type I error rates and more power than other, more commonly used tests. Values for the two paths involved in the indirect effect and their standard errors are entered in the PRODCLIN program, and distribution of the product confidence limits are computed. Several examples are used to illustrate the PRODCLIN program. The PRODCLIN programs in rich text format may be downloaded from www.psychonomic.org/archive. PMID:17958149

  3. Building confidence: an exploration of nurses undertaking a postgraduate biological science course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Wissen, Kim; McBride-Henry, Karen

    2010-01-01

    This study aimed to explore the impact of studying biological science at a postgraduate level and how this impacted on nursing practice. The term biological sciences in this research encompasses elements of physiology, genetics, biochemistry and pathophysiology. A qualitative research study was designed, that involved the dissemination of a pre- and post-course semi-structured questionnaire for a biological science course, as part of a Master of Nursing programme at a New Zealand University, thus exploring the impact of undertaking a postgraduate biological sciences course. The responses were analysed into themes, based on interpretive concepts. The primary themes revealed improvement in confidence as: confidence in communication, confidence in linking nursing theoretical knowledge to practice and confidence in clinical nursing knowledge. This study highlights the need to privilege clinically-derived nursing knowledge, and that confidence in this nursing knowledge and clinical practice can be instilled through employing the model of theory-guided practice.

  4. Effects of postidentification feedback on eyewitness identification and nonidentification confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmler, Carolyn; Brewer, Neil; Wells, Gary L

    2004-04-01

    Two experiments investigated new dimensions of the effect of confirming feedback on eyewitness identification confidence using target-absent and target-present lineups and (previously unused) unbiased witness instructions (i.e., "offender not present" option highlighted). In Experiment 1, participants viewed a crime video and were later asked to try to identify the thief from an 8-person target-absent photo array. Feedback inflated witness confidence for both mistaken identifications and correct lineup rejections. With target-present lineups in Experiment 2, feedback inflated confidence for correct and mistaken identifications and lineup rejections. Although feedback had no influence on the confidence-accuracy correlation, it produced clear overconfidence. Confidence inflation varied with the confidence measure reference point (i.e., retrospective vs. current confidence) and identification response latency.

  5. Effects of confidence and anxiety on flow state in competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehn, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Confidence and anxiety are important variables that underlie the experience of flow in sport. Specifically, research has indicated that confidence displays a positive relationship and anxiety a negative relationship with flow. The aim of this study was to assess potential direct and indirect effects of confidence and anxiety dimensions on flow state in tennis competition. A sample of 59 junior tennis players completed measures of Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2d and Flow State Scale-2. Following predictive analysis, results showed significant positive correlations between confidence (intensity and direction) and anxiety symptoms (only directional perceptions) with flow state. Standard multiple regression analysis indicated confidence as the only significant predictor of flow. The results confirmed a protective function of confidence against debilitating anxiety interpretations, but there were no significant interaction effects between confidence and anxiety on flow state.

  6. PFP: Automated prediction of gene ontology functional annotations with confidence scores using protein sequence data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Troy; Chitale, Meghana; Luban, Stanislav; Kihara, Daisuke

    2009-02-15

    Protein function prediction is a central problem in bioinformatics, increasing in importance recently due to the rapid accumulation of biological data awaiting interpretation. Sequence data represents the bulk of this new stock and is the obvious target for consideration as input, as newly sequenced organisms often lack any other type of biological characterization. We have previously introduced PFP (Protein Function Prediction) as our sequence-based predictor of Gene Ontology (GO) functional terms. PFP interprets the results of a PSI-BLAST search by extracting and scoring individual functional attributes, searching a wide range of E-value sequence matches, and utilizing conventional data mining techniques to fill in missing information. We have shown it to be effective in predicting both specific and low-resolution functional attributes when sufficient data is unavailable. Here we describe (1) significant improvements to the PFP infrastructure, including the addition of prediction significance and confidence scores, (2) a thorough benchmark of performance and comparisons to other related prediction methods, and (3) applications of PFP predictions to genome-scale data. We applied PFP predictions to uncharacterized protein sequences from 15 organisms. Among these sequences, 60-90% could be annotated with a GO molecular function term at high confidence (>or=80%). We also applied our predictions to the protein-protein interaction network of the Malaria plasmodium (Plasmodium falciparum). High confidence GO biological process predictions (>or=90%) from PFP increased the number of fully enriched interactions in this dataset from 23% of interactions to 94%. Our benchmark comparison shows significant performance improvement of PFP relative to GOtcha, InterProScan, and PSI-BLAST predictions. This is consistent with the performance of PFP as the overall best predictor in both the AFP-SIG '05 and CASP7 function (FN) assessments. PFP is available as a web service at http

  7. Interpersonal confidence as a factor in the prevention of disorganized interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dontsov, Aleksander I.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Human communities are based on a certain set of everyday attitudes, on the coordination of the actions of “the self ” in a group, and on the regulation of social practices. The results of this study show that a number of factors act as determinants of trust/ distrust ambivalence: the multidimensionality and the dynamics of interactions among people; the high level of subjectivity in evaluating risks resulting from openness and from confidence in partners involved in an interaction; and a subject’s contradictory attitude toward the personal traits of an interacting partner (power, activity, honesty, trustworthiness. Japanese scholars have proved the necessity of taking into account quality of life (QOL as one of the determinants of the development of interpersonal confidence. The study demonstrates that people try to bring trust into their daily routines as a way of organizing conscientious, emotionally open interactions that take into account the interests of all parties. Mistrust blocks access to the emotional, intellectual, and activity-related resources supporting life and undermines faith in the possibility of virtue and morality. Yet a supplementary study (using instant diagnostics indicates that in practice respondents did not demonstrate a high level of confidence (in two cities it was 0%; in one city, it was 4.6%. In spite of emotionally positive views regarding trust, as well as constructive estimates of its moral/behavioral potential, a considerable number of respondents were not open and oriented to the interests of others. A tendency toward caution, inwardness, and constrained sincerity leads to nonconformity in one’s actions in a group and to changes in the vector of social practices from socio-partner regulation to disorganized interaction.

  8. Confidence intervals for distinguishing ordinal and disordinal interactions in multiple regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sunbok; Lei, Man-Kit; Brody, Gene H

    2015-06-01

    Distinguishing between ordinal and disordinal interaction in multiple regression is useful in testing many interesting theoretical hypotheses. Because the distinction is made based on the location of a crossover point of 2 simple regression lines, confidence intervals of the crossover point can be used to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interactions. This study examined 2 factors that need to be considered in constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point: (a) the assumption about the sampling distribution of the crossover point, and (b) the possibility of abnormally wide confidence intervals for the crossover point. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare 6 different methods for constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point in terms of the coverage rate, the proportion of true values that fall to the left or right of the confidence intervals, and the average width of the confidence intervals. The methods include the reparameterization, delta, Fieller, basic bootstrap, percentile bootstrap, and bias-corrected accelerated bootstrap methods. The results of our Monte Carlo simulation study suggest that statistical inference using confidence intervals to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interaction requires sample sizes more than 500 to be able to provide sufficiently narrow confidence intervals to identify the location of the crossover point. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Sorption databases for increasing confidence in performance assessment - 16053

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, Anke; Brendler, Vinzenz; Nebelung, Cordula; Payne, Timothy E.; Brasser, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    World-wide activities focus on the remediation of radioactively contaminated sites. One common aim is to deliver a more profound chemical base for risk assessment, namely all those physico-chemical phenomena governing the contamination plume development in time and space. Coupled transport codes able to tackle this challenge have to simplify the resulting very complex reaction pattern. To do so in an adequate way requires extending the knowledge about retardation and mobilisation phenomena and the underlying basic processes and interactions (e.g. physisorption, chemisorption, surface precipitation). Interactions at the solid-liquid interface can be described by complementary approaches, the empirical K d concept and the mechanistic Surface Complexation Models (SCM). K d 's are used by most reactive transport and risk assessment codes due to the straightforward numerics involved. In addition, the K d concept is often the only feasible option for complex solid phases. However, the K d concept is a rather simplistic approach. Many very different basic physicochemical phenomena are subsumed in just one conditional parameter. Therefore, extrapolating K d values may yield very large uncertainties. SCM account adsorption of ions on surface sites as complexation reaction comparable to complexation in solution. The electrical charge at the surface is determined by the chemical reactions of the mineral functional groups, including acid-base reactions and formation of ion pairs and coordinative complexes. The required parameters are site-independent and applicable despite large variations in geochemical conditions. This presents a high potential to increase confidence in safety analysis and risk assessment studies (performance assessment). The mechanistic description of sorption processes with SCM allows a thermodynamically consistent calculation of the species distribution between liquid and solid phase combined with more reliable inter- and extrapolations. However, this

  10. Validation of self - confidence scale for clean urinary intermittent self - catheterization for patients and health - caregivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cintia Fernandes Baccarin Biaziolo

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To validate a measurement instrument for clean intermittent self-catheterization for patients and health-caregivers. Material and Methods Methodological study of instrument validation performed at a Rehabilitation Center in a University hospital for patients submitted to clean intermittent self-catheterization and their health-caregivers. Following ethical criteria, data were collected during interview with nurse staff using a Likert question form containing 16 items with 5 points each: “no confidence”=1, “little confidence”=2, “confident”=3, “very confident”=4 and “completely confident”=5. Questionnaire called “Self-Confident Scale for Clean Intermittent Self-catheterization” (SCSCISC was constructed based on literature and previously validated (appearance and content. Results The instrument was validated by 122 patients and 119 health-caregivers, in a proportion of 15:1. It was observed a good linear association and sample adequacy KMO 0.931 and X2=2881.63, p<0.001. Anti-image matrix showed high values at diagonal suggesting inclusion of all factors. Screen plot analysis showed a suggestion of items maintenance in a single set. It was observed high correlation of all items with the total, alpha-Cronbach 0.944. The same results were obtained in subsamples of patients and health-caregivers. Conclusion The instrument showed good psychometric adequacy corroborating its use for evaluation of self-confidence during clean intermittent self-catheterization.

  11. Computationally efficient SVM multi-class image recognition with confidence measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makili, Lazaro; Vega, Jesus; Dormido-Canto, Sebastian; Pastor, Ignacio; Murari, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    Typically, machine learning methods produce non-qualified estimates, i.e. the accuracy and reliability of the predictions are not provided. Transductive predictors are very recent classifiers able to provide, simultaneously with the prediction, a couple of values (confidence and credibility) to reflect the quality of the prediction. Usually, a drawback of the transductive techniques for huge datasets and large dimensionality is the high computational time. To overcome this issue, a more efficient classifier has been used in a multi-class image classification problem in the TJ-II stellarator database. It is based on the creation of a hash function to generate several 'one versus the rest' classifiers for every class. By using Support Vector Machines as the underlying classifier, a comparison between the pure transductive approach and the new method has been performed. In both cases, the success rates are high and the computation time with the new method is up to 0.4 times the old one.

  12. Energy price dispute - companies are confident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcan, P.; Slovak, P.

    2007-01-01

    Energy prices stipulated for 2003 were not compliant with the valid legislation. The Constitutional Court has repeatedly confirmed this fact. The dispute between several Slovak companies and the state will address the damage caused by illegal actions taken by the public authority, including loss of profit. A group of claimants represented by the Club 500 association is claiming up to 2 bil. Sk (57.97 mil. EUR) as compensation for the mistake made by the Office for Regulation of Network Industries (URSO), including the unclear calculation of the lost profit of companies. It will be up to the courts to decide whether the price deregulation really caused damage to the companies or whether they just took advantage of the faulty legislation.The companies base their claims on a decision of the Constitutional Court. Last year the Court twice announced that the 2003 energy prices were not compliant with valid legislation. At that time, Slovakia lacked a generally binding regulation that should have been in place according to the Act on Regulation of Network Industries. Currently, the role of these missing regulations has been taken over by URSO decrees. These stipulate justified costs and adequate profit of energy suppliers. The regulator had such a decree prepared at the end of 2002, but due to material stipulations and time constraints it did not publish it. (authors)

  13. Sustainable nuclear development and public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gagarinski, A.

    2000-01-01

    This report discusses the objective preconditions, which would lead the world community to acceptance of nuclear energy. The following conditions deserve special emphasis: (a) Demographic growth, resulting in the increase of energy demand and promoting the understanding of the fact, that the world energy resources are limited and all possible energy sources, including nuclear ones, should be used. (b) Development of the 'third-world' countries, creating additional energy demand, which cannot be met without nuclear power. (c) Global (and influencing the plans of each country) need of availability and acceptable costs together with reliability and safety of energy supply, and, consequently, the interest to energy sources diversification in order to eliminate the dependence of fossil fuels import. The paper considers the ways to solve this strategic task. Its solution could take a long time (several decades) and should be properly perceived by the generation of specialists now starting their career in nuclear science and industry. Now it is a good time for the new generation of nuclear specialists to solve this problem - the large-scale NPP development is not yet needed, there is a large accumulated experience and perspective ideas, and there is enough time to analyze the problems in detail, propose and prepare the solutions and convince the general public, that these solutions are correct. And then the next phase of nuclear energy development would be based not only on correct technical solutions, but also on a favourable social environment. (authors)

  14. Systematic review of knowledge, confidence and education in nutritional genomics for students and professionals in nutrition and dietetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, O R L

    2014-06-01

    This review examines knowledge and confidence of nutrition and dietetics professionals in nutritional genomics and evaluates the teaching strategies in this field within nutrition and dietetics university programmes and professional development courses internationally. A systematic search of 10 literature databases was conducted from January 2000 to December 2012 to identify original research. Any studies of either nutrition and/or dietetics students or dietitians/nutritionists investigating current levels of knowledge or confidence in nutritional genomics, or strategies to improve learning and/or confidence in this area, were eligible. Eighteen articles (15 separate studies) met the inclusion criteria. Three articles were assessed as negative, eight as neutral and seven as positive according to the American Dietetics Association Quality Criteria Checklist. The overall ranking of evidence was low. Dietitians have low involvement, knowledge and confidence in nutritional genomics, and evidence for educational strategies is limited and methodologically weak. There is a need to develop training pathways and material to up-skill nutrition and/or dietetics students and nutrition and/or dietetics professionals in nutritional genomics through multidisciplinary collaboration with content area experts. There is a paucity of high quality evidence on optimum teaching strategies; however, methods promoting repetitive exposure to nutritional genomics material, problem-solving, collaborative and case-based learning are most promising for university and professional development programmes. © 2013 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

  15. Editorial: disarmament, non proliferation, confidence-building measures, armament control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soutou, Georges-Henri

    2015-01-01

    After having described the vicious circle existing between disarmament and security as it appeared before and during the first World War, the author deals with the specific case of nuclear disarmament as it was first addressed just after the Second World War, and was then not accepted by the Russians. He comments the political and strategical approach adopted by the Kennedy administration, notably within the context of severe crises (Berlin and Cuba). This resulted in the re-establishment of a relationship between war and policy as defined by Clausewitz, but based on a trilogy of three inseparable pairs: deterrence and armament control, armament control and non proliferation, armament control and confidence-building measures. The author shows that this trilogy has been somehow operating until the end of Cold War, and that nothing works anymore since the end of Cold War and of the bipolar world

  16. Confidence limits for Neyman type A-distributed events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morand, J.; Deperas-Standylo, J.; Urbanik, W.; Moss, R.; Hachem, S.; Sauerwein, W.; Wojcik, A.

    2008-01-01

    The Neyman type A distribution, a generalised, 'contagious' Poisson distribution, finds application in a number of disciplines such as biology, physics and economy. In radiation biology, it best describes the distribution of chromosomal aberrations in cells that were exposed to neutrons, alpha radiations or heavy ions. Intriguingly, no method has been developed for the calculation of confidence limits (CLs) of Neyman type A-distributed events. Here, an algorithm to calculate the 95% CL of Neyman type A-distributed events is presented. Although it has been developed in response to the requirements of radiation biology, it can find application in other fields of research. The algorithm has been implemented in a PC-based computer program that can be downloaded, free of charge, from www.pu.kielce.pl/ibiol/neta. (authors)

  17. Confidence limits for Neyman type A-distributed events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morand, Josselin; Deperas-Standylo, Joanna; Urbanik, Witold; Moss, Raymond; Hachem, Sabet; Sauerwein, Wolfgang; Wojcik, Andrzej

    2008-01-01

    The Neyman type A distribution, a generalised, 'contagious' Poisson distribution, finds application in a number of disciplines such as biology, physics and economy. In radiation biology, it best describes the distribution of chromosomal aberrations in cells that were exposed to neutrons, alpha radiations or heavy ions. Intriguingly, no method has been developed for the calculation of confidence limits (CLs) of Neyman type A-distributed events. Here, an algorithm to calculate the 95% CL of Neyman type A-distributed events is presented. Although it has been developed in response to the requirements of radiation biology, it can find application in other fields of research. The algorithm has been implemented in a PC-based computer program that can be downloaded, free of charge, from www.pu.kielce.pl/ibiol/neta.

  18. The 95% confidence intervals of error rates and discriminant coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuichi Shinmura

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Fisher proposed a linear discriminant function (Fisher’s LDF. From 1971, we analysed electrocardiogram (ECG data in order to develop the diagnostic logic between normal and abnormal symptoms by Fisher’s LDF and a quadratic discriminant function (QDF. Our four years research was inferior to the decision tree logic developed by the medical doctor. After this experience, we discriminated many data and found four problems of the discriminant analysis. A revised Optimal LDF by Integer Programming (Revised IP-OLDF based on the minimum number of misclassification (minimum NM criterion resolves three problems entirely [13, 18]. In this research, we discuss fourth problem of the discriminant analysis. There are no standard errors (SEs of the error rate and discriminant coefficient. We propose a k-fold crossvalidation method. This method offers a model selection technique and a 95% confidence intervals (C.I. of error rates and discriminant coefficients.

  19. IMPROVING SEMI-GLOBAL MATCHING: COST AGGREGATION AND CONFIDENCE MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. d’Angelo

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Digital elevation models are one of the basic products that can be generated from remotely sensed imagery. The Semi Global Matching (SGM algorithm is a robust and practical algorithm for dense image matching. The connection between SGM and Belief Propagation was recently developed, and based on that improvements such as correction of over-counting the data term, and a new confidence measure have been proposed. Later the MGM algorithm has been proposed, it aims at improving the regularization step of SGM, but has only been evaluated on the Middlebury stereo benchmark so far. This paper evaluates these proposed improvements on the ISPRS satellite stereo benchmark, using a Pleiades Triplet and a Cartosat-1 Stereo pair. The over-counting correction slightly improves matching density, at the expense of adding a few outliers. The MGM cost aggregation shows leads to a slight increase of accuracy.

  20. Factors affecting midwives' confidence in intrapartum care: a phenomenological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedwell, Carol; McGowan, Linda; Lavender, Tina

    2015-01-01

    midwives are frequently the lead providers of care for women throughout labour and birth. In order to perform their role effectively and provide women with the choices they require midwives need to be confident in their practice. This study explores factors which may affect midwives' confidence in their practice. hermeneutic phenomenology formed the theoretical basis for the study. Prospective longitudinal data collection was completed using diaries and semi-structured interviews. Twelve midwives providing intrapartum care in a variety of settings were recruited to ensure a variety of experiences in different contexts were captured. the principal factor affecting workplace confidence, both positively and negatively, was the influence of colleagues. Perceived autonomy and a sense of familiarity could also enhance confidence. However, conflict in the workplace was a critical factor in reducing midwives' confidence. Confidence was an important, but fragile, phenomenon to midwives and they used a variety of coping strategies, emotional intelligence and presentation management to maintain it. this is the first study to highlight both the factors influencing midwives' workplace confidence and the strategies midwives employed to maintain their confidence. Confidence is important in maintaining well-being and workplace culture may play a role in explaining the current low morale within the midwifery workforce. This may have implications for women's choices and care. Support, effective leadership and education may help midwives develop and sustain a positive sense of confidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A boost of confidence: The role of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex in memory, decision-making, and schemas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hebscher, Melissa; Gilboa, Asaf

    2016-09-01

    The ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) has been implicated in a wide array of functions across multiple domains. In this review, we focus on the vmPFC's involvement in mediating strategic aspects of memory retrieval, memory-related schema functions, and decision-making. We suggest that vmPFC generates a confidence signal that informs decisions and memory-guided behaviour. Confidence is central to these seemingly diverse functions: (1) Strategic retrieval: lesions to the vmPFC impair an early, automatic, and intuitive monitoring process ("feeling of rightness"; FOR) often associated with confabulation (spontaneous reporting of erroneous memories). Critically, confabulators typically demonstrate high levels of confidence in their false memories, suggesting that faulty monitoring following vmPFC damage may lead to indiscriminate confidence signals. (2) Memory schemas: the vmPFC is critically involved in instantiating and maintaining contextually relevant schemas, broadly defined as higher level knowledge structures that encapsulate lower level representational elements. The correspondence between memory retrieval cues and these activated schemas leads to FOR monitoring. Stronger, more elaborate schemas produce stronger FOR and influence confidence in the veracity of memory candidates. (3) Finally, we review evidence on the vmPFC's role in decision-making, extending this role to decision-making during memory retrieval. During non-mnemonic and mnemonic decision-making the vmPFC automatically encodes confidence. Confidence signal in the vmPFC is revealed as a non-linear relationship between a first-order monitoring assessment and second-order action or choice. Attempting to integrate the multiple functions of the vmPFC, we propose a posterior-anterior organizational principle for this region. More posterior vmPFC regions are involved in earlier, automatic, subjective, and contextually sensitive functions, while more anterior regions are involved in controlled actions

  2. High temperature oxidation behavior of TiAl-based intermetallics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroosnijder, M.F.; Sunderkoetter, J.D.; Haanappel, V.A.C.

    1996-01-01

    TiAl-based intermetallic compounds have attracted considerable interest as structural materials for high-temperature applications due to their low density and substantial mechanical strength at high temperatures. However, one major drawback hindering industrial application arises from the insufficient oxidation resistance at temperatures beyond 700 C. In the present contribution some general aspects of high temperature oxidation of TiAl-based intermetallics will be presented. This will be followed by a discussion of the influence of alloying elements, in particular niobium, and of the effect of nitrogen in the oxidizing environment on the high temperature oxidation behavior of such materials

  3. Confidence interval procedures for Monte Carlo transport simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pederson, S.P.

    1997-01-01

    The problem of obtaining valid confidence intervals based on estimates from sampled distributions using Monte Carlo particle transport simulation codes such as MCNP is examined. Such intervals can cover the true parameter of interest at a lower than nominal rate if the sampled distribution is extremely right-skewed by large tallies. Modifications to the standard theory of confidence intervals are discussed and compared with some existing heuristics, including batched means normality tests. Two new types of diagnostics are introduced to assess whether the conditions of central limit theorem-type results are satisfied: the relative variance of the variance determines whether the sample size is sufficiently large, and estimators of the slope of the right tail of the distribution are used to indicate the number of moments that exist. A simulation study is conducted to quantify the relationship between various diagnostics and coverage rates and to find sample-based quantities useful in indicating when intervals are expected to be valid. Simulated tally distributions are chosen to emulate behavior seen in difficult particle transport problems. Measures of variation in the sample variance s 2 are found to be much more effective than existing methods in predicting when coverage will be near nominal rates. Batched means tests are found to be overly conservative in this regard. A simple but pathological MCNP problem is presented as an example of false convergence using existing heuristics. The new methods readily detect the false convergence and show that the results of the problem, which are a factor of 4 too small, should not be used. Recommendations are made for applying these techniques in practice, using the statistical output currently produced by MCNP

  4. Errors and Predictors of Confidence in Condom Use amongst Young Australians Attending a Music Festival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Karina M; Brieger, Daniel G; De Silva, Sukhita H; Pfister, Benjamin F; Youlden, Daniel J; John-Leader, Franklin; Pit, Sabrina W

    2016-01-01

    Objectives . To determine the confidence and ability to use condoms correctly and consistently and the predictors of confidence in young Australians attending a festival. Methods . 288 young people aged 18 to 29 attending a mixed-genre music festival completed a survey measuring demographics, self-reported confidence using condoms, ability to use condoms, and issues experienced when using condoms in the past 12 months. Results . Self-reported confidence using condoms was high (77%). Multivariate analyses showed confidence was associated with being male ( P < 0.001) and having had five or more lifetime sexual partners ( P = 0.038). Reading packet instructions was associated with increased condom use confidence ( P = 0.011). Amongst participants who had used a condom in the last year, 37% had experienced the condom breaking and 48% had experienced the condom slipping off during intercourse and 51% when withdrawing the penis after sex. Conclusion . This population of young people are experiencing high rates of condom failures and are using them inconsistently or incorrectly, demonstrating the need to improve attitudes, behaviour, and knowledge about correct and consistent condom usage. There is a need to empower young Australians, particularly females, with knowledge and confidence in order to improve condom use self-efficacy.

  5. Building confidence and credibility amid growing model and computing complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, K. J.; Mahajan, S.; Veneziani, C.; Kennedy, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    As global Earth system models are developed to answer an ever-wider range of science questions, software products that provide robust verification, validation, and evaluation must evolve in tandem. Measuring the degree to which these new models capture past behavior, predict the future, and provide the certainty of predictions is becoming ever more challenging for reasons that are generally well known, yet are still challenging to address. Two specific and divergent needs for analysis of the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) model - but with a similar software philosophy - are presented to show how a model developer-based focus can address analysis needs during expansive model changes to provide greater fidelity and execute on multi-petascale computing facilities. A-PRIME is a python script-based quick-look overview of a fully-coupled global model configuration to determine quickly if it captures specific behavior before significant computer time and expense is invested. EVE is an ensemble-based software framework that focuses on verification of performance-based ACME model development, such as compiler or machine settings, to determine the equivalence of relevant climate statistics. The challenges and solutions for analysis of multi-petabyte output data are highlighted from the aspect of the scientist using the software, with the aim of fostering discussion and further input from the community about improving developer confidence and community credibility.

  6. Confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Zachary; Felker, Sydney

    2012-06-01

    On tasks that require the mental rotation of 3-dimensional figures, males typically exhibit higher accuracy than females. Using the most common measure of mental rotation (i.e., the Mental Rotations Test), we investigated whether individual variability in confidence mediates this sex difference in mental rotation performance. In each of four experiments, the sex difference was reliably elicited and eliminated by controlling or manipulating participants' confidence. Specifically, confidence predicted performance within and between sexes (Experiment 1), rendering confidence irrelevant to the task reliably eliminated the sex difference in performance (Experiments 2 and 3), and manipulating confidence significantly affected performance (Experiment 4). Thus, confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance and hence the sex difference appears to be a difference of performance rather than ability. Results are discussed in relation to other potential mediators and mechanisms, such as gender roles, sex stereotypes, spatial experience, rotation strategies, working memory, and spatial attention.

  7. Coping skills: role of trait sport confidence and trait anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cresswell, Scott; Hodge, Ken

    2004-04-01

    The current research assesses relationships among coping skills, trait sport confidence, and trait anxiety. Two samples (n=47 and n=77) of international competitors from surf life saving (M=23.7 yr.) and touch rugby (M=26.2 yr.) completed the Athletic Coping Skills Inventory, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Sport Anxiety Scale. Analysis yielded significant correlations amongst trait anxiety, sport confidence, and coping. Specifically confidence scores were positively associated with coping with adversity scores and anxiety scores were negatively associated. These findings support the inclusion of the personality characteristics of confidence and anxiety within the coping model presented by Hardy, Jones, and Gould, Researchers should be aware that confidence and anxiety may influence the coping processes of athletes.

  8. Ventral striatal activity correlates with memory confidence for old- and new-responses in a difficult recognition test.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrike Schwarze

    Full Text Available Activity in the ventral striatum has frequently been associated with retrieval success, i.e., it is higher for hits than correct rejections. Based on the prominent role of the ventral striatum in the reward circuit, its activity has been interpreted to reflect the higher subjective value of hits compared to correct rejections in standard recognition tests. This hypothesis was supported by a recent study showing that ventral striatal activity is higher for correct rejections than hits when the value of rejections is increased by external incentives. These findings imply that the striatal response during recognition is context-sensitive and modulated by the adaptive significance of "oldness" or "newness" to the current goals. The present study is based on the idea that not only external incentives, but also other deviations from standard recognition tests which affect the subjective value of specific response types should modulate striatal activity. Therefore, we explored ventral striatal activity in an unusually difficult recognition test that was characterized by low levels of confidence and accuracy. Based on the human uncertainty aversion, in such a recognition context, the subjective value of all high confident decisions is expected to be higher than usual, i.e., also rejecting items with high certainty is deemed rewarding. In an accompanying behavioural experiment, participants rated the pleasantness of each recognition response. As hypothesized, ventral striatal activity correlated in the current unusually difficult recognition test not only with retrieval success, but also with confidence. Moreover, participants indicated that they were more satisfied by higher confidence in addition to perceived oldness of an item. Taken together, the results are in line with the hypothesis that ventral striatal activity during recognition codes the subjective value of different response types that is modulated by the context of the recognition test.

  9. Confidence Limits for the Indirect Effect: Distribution of the Product and Resampling Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, David P.; Lockwood, Chondra M.; Williams, Jason

    2010-01-01

    The most commonly used method to test an indirect effect is to divide the estimate of the indirect effect by its standard error and compare the resulting z statistic with a critical value from the standard normal distribution. Confidence limits for the indirect effect are also typically based on critical values from the standard normal distribution. This article uses a simulation study to demonstrate that confidence limits are imbalanced because the distribution of the indirect effect is normal only in special cases. Two alternatives for improving the performance of confidence limits for the indirect effect are evaluated: (a) a method based on the distribution of the product of two normal random variables, and (b) resampling methods. In Study 1, confidence limits based on the distribution of the product are more accurate than methods based on an assumed normal distribution but confidence limits are still imbalanced. Study 2 demonstrates that more accurate confidence limits are obtained using resampling methods, with the bias-corrected bootstrap the best method overall. PMID:20157642

  10. Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

    OpenAIRE

    Kamini Solanki; Yudhvir Seetharam

    2014-01-01

    While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Ind...

  11. Preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching school violence prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandakai, Tina L; King, Keith A

    2002-01-01

    To examine preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention and the potential effect of violence-prevention training on preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. Six Ohio universities participated in the study. More than 800 undergraduate and graduate students completed surveys. Violence-prevention training, area of certification, and location of student- teaching placement significantly influenced preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention. Violence-prevention training positively influences preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. The results suggest that such training should be considered as a requirement for teacher preparation programs.

  12. The antecedents and belief-polarized effects of thought confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Hsuan-Yi; Lien, Nai-Hwa; Liang, Kuan-Yu

    2011-01-01

    This article investigates 2 possible antecedents of thought confidence and explores the effects of confidence induced before or during ad exposure. The results of the experiments indicate that both consumers' dispositional optimism and spokesperson attractiveness have significant effects on consumers' confidence in thoughts that are generated after viewing the advertisement. Higher levels of thought confidence will influence the quality of the thoughts that people generate, lead to either positively or negatively polarized message processing, and therefore induce better or worse advertising effectiveness, depending on the valence of thoughts. The authors posit the belief-polarization hypothesis to explain these findings.

  13. Ship Classification with High Resolution TerraSAR-X Imagery Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Ship surveillance using space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR, taking advantages of high resolution over wide swaths and all-weather working capability, has attracted worldwide attention. Recent activity in this field has concentrated mainly on the study of ship detection, but the classification is largely still open. In this paper, we propose a novel ship classification scheme based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP in order to achieve better performance. The main idea is to apply AHP on both feature selection and classification decision. On one hand, the AHP based feature selection constructs a selection decision problem based on several feature evaluation measures (e.g., discriminability, stability, and information measure and provides objective criteria to make comprehensive decisions for their combinations quantitatively. On the other hand, we take the selected feature sets as the input of KNN classifiers and fuse the multiple classification results based on AHP, in which the feature sets’ confidence is taken into account when the AHP based classification decision is made. We analyze the proposed classification scheme and demonstrate its results on a ship dataset that comes from TerraSAR-X SAR images.

  14. Research On Bi-Based High-Temperature Superconductors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Curtis; Doane, George B., III; Golben, John

    1993-01-01

    Brief report describes effects of melt sintering on Bi-based high-temperature superconductor system, as well as use of vibrating-sample magnetometer to determine hysteresis curves at 77 K for partially melt-sintered samples. Also discussed is production of high-temperature superconducting thin films by laser ablation: such films potentially useful in detection of signals of very low power.

  15. Effects of Problem Based Economics on High School Economics Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkelstein, Neal; Hanson, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The primary purpose of this study is to assess student-level impacts of a problem-based instructional approach to high school economics. The curriculum approach examined here was designed to increase class participation and content knowledge for high school students who are learning economics. This study tests the effectiveness of Problem Based…

  16. Smartphone-Based Fluorescent Diagnostic System for Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, Seon-Ju; Choi, Kyunghan; Cuc, Bui Thi; Hong, Nguyen Ngoc; Bao, Duong Tuan; Ngoc, Nguyen Minh; Le, Mai Quynh; Hang, Nguyen Le Khanh; Thach, Nguyen Co; Mallik, Shyam Kumar; Kim, Hak Sung; Chong, Chom-Kyu; Choi, Hak Soo; Sung, Haan Woo; Yu, Kyoungsik; Park, Hyun

    2016-01-01

    Field diagnostic tools for avian influenza (AI) are indispensable for the prevention and controlled management of highly pathogenic AI-related diseases. More accurate, faster and networked on-site monitoring is demanded to detect such AI viruses with high sensitivity as well as to maintain up-to-date information about their geographical transmission. In this work, we assessed the clinical and field-level performance of a smartphone-based fluorescent diagnostic device with an efficient reflective light collection module using a coumarin-derived dendrimer-based fluorescent lateral flow immunoassay. By application of an optimized bioconjugate, a smartphone-based diagnostic device had a two-fold higher detectability as compared to that of the table-top fluorescence strip reader for three different AI subtypes (H5N3, H7N1, and H9N2). Additionally, in a clinical study of H5N1-confirmed patients, the smartphone-based diagnostic device showed a sensitivity of 96.55% (28/29) [95% confidence interval (CI): 82.24 to 99.91] and a specificity of 98.55% (68/69) (95% CI: 92.19 to 99.96). The measurement results from the distributed individual smartphones were wirelessly transmitted via short messaging service and collected by a centralized database system for further information processing and data mining. Smartphone-based diagnosis provided highly sensitive measurement results for H5N1 detection within 15 minutes. Because of its high sensitivity, portability and automatic reporting feature, the proposed device will enable agile identification of patients and efficient control of AI dissemination.

  17. Smartphone-Based Fluorescent Diagnostic System for Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, Seon-Ju; Choi, Kyunghan; Cuc, Bui Thi; Hong, Nguyen Ngoc; Bao, Duong Tuan; Ngoc, Nguyen Minh; Le, Mai Quynh; Hang, Nguyen Le Khanh; Thach, Nguyen Co; Mallik, Shyam Kumar; Kim, Hak Sung; Chong, Chom-Kyu; Choi, Hak Soo; Sung, Haan Woo; Yu, Kyoungsik; Park, Hyun

    2016-01-01

    Field diagnostic tools for avian influenza (AI) are indispensable for the prevention and controlled management of highly pathogenic AI-related diseases. More accurate, faster and networked on-site monitoring is demanded to detect such AI viruses with high sensitivity as well as to maintain up-to-date information about their geographical transmission. In this work, we assessed the clinical and field-level performance of a smartphone-based fluorescent diagnostic device with an efficient reflective light collection module using a coumarin-derived dendrimer-based fluorescent lateral flow immunoassay. By application of an optimized bioconjugate, a smartphone-based diagnostic device had a two-fold higher detectability as compared to that of the table-top fluorescence strip reader for three different AI subtypes (H5N3, H7N1, and H9N2). Additionally, in a clinical study of H5N1-confirmed patients, the smartphone-based diagnostic device showed a sensitivity of 96.55% (28/29) [95% confidence interval (CI): 82.24 to 99.91] and a specificity of 98.55% (68/69) (95% CI: 92.19 to 99.96). The measurement results from the distributed individual smartphones were wirelessly transmitted via short messaging service and collected by a centralized database system for further information processing and data mining. Smartphone-based diagnosis provided highly sensitive measurement results for H5N1 detection within 15 minutes. Because of its high sensitivity, portability and automatic reporting feature, the proposed device will enable agile identification of patients and efficient control of AI dissemination. PMID:26877781

  18. Final report: High current capacity high temperature superconducting film based tape for high field magnets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ying Xin

    2000-01-01

    The primary goal of the program was to establish the process parameters for the continuous deposition of high quality, superconducting YBCO films on one meter lengths of buffered RABiTS tape using MOCVD and to characterize the potential utility of the resulting tapes in high field magnet applications

  19. Confidence Estimation of Reliability Indices of the System with Elements Duplication and Recovery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. V. Pavlov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers a problem to estimate a confidence interval of the main reliability indices such as availability rate, mean time between failures, and operative availability (in the stationary state for the model of the system with duplication and independent recovery of elements.Presents a solution of the problem for a situation that often arises in practice, when there are unknown exact values of the reliability parameters of the elements, and only test data of the system or its individual parts (elements, subsystems for reliability are known. It should be noted that the problems of the confidence estimate of reliability indices of the complex systems based on the testing results of their individual elements are fairly common function in engineering practice when designing and running the various engineering systems. The available papers consider this problem, mainly, for non-recovery systems.Describes a solution of this problem for the important particular case when the system elements are duplicated by the reserved elements, and the elements that have failed in the course of system operation are recovered (regardless of the state of other elements.An approximate solution of this problem is obtained for the case of high reliability or "fast recovery" of elements on the assumption that the average recovery time of elements is small as compared to the average time between failures.

  20. The relationship between fundamental movement skill proficiency and physical self-confidence among adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGrane, Bronagh; Belton, Sarahjane; Powell, Danielle; Issartel, Johann

    2017-09-01

    This study aims to assess fundamental movement skill (FMS) proficiency, physical self-confidence levels, and the relationship between these variables and gender differences among adolescents. Three hundred and ninety five adolescents aged 13.78 years (SD = ±1.2) from 20 schools were involved in this study. The Test of Gross Motor Development-2nd Edition (TGMD), TGMD-2 and Victorian Skills Manual were used to assess 15 FMS. Participants' physical self-confidence was also assessed using a valid skill-specific scale. A significant correlation was observed between FMS proficiency and physical self-confidence for females only (r = 0.305, P < 0.001). Males rated themselves as having significantly higher physical self-confidence levels than females (P = 0.001). Males scored significantly higher than females in FMS proficiency (P < 0.05), and the lowest physical self-confidence group were significantly less proficient at FMS than the medium (P < 0.001) and high physical self-confidence groups (P < 0.05). This information not only highlights those in need of assistance to develop their FMS but will also facilitate in the development of an intervention which aims to improve physical self-confidence and FMS proficiency.

  1. Evidence for a confidence-accuracy relationship in memory for same- and cross-race faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Thao B; Pezdek, Kathy; Wixted, John T

    2017-12-01

    Discrimination accuracy is usually higher for same- than for cross-race faces, a phenomenon known as the cross-race effect (CRE). According to prior research, the CRE occurs because memories for same- and cross-race faces rely on qualitatively different processes. However, according to a continuous dual-process model of recognition memory, memories that rely on qualitatively different processes do not differ in recognition accuracy when confidence is equated. Thus, although there are differences in overall same- and cross-race discrimination accuracy, confidence-specific accuracy (i.e., recognition accuracy at a particular level of confidence) may not differ. We analysed datasets from four recognition memory studies on same- and cross-race faces to test this hypothesis. Confidence ratings reliably predicted recognition accuracy when performance was above chance levels (Experiments 1, 2, and 3) but not when performance was at chance levels (Experiment 4). Furthermore, at each level of confidence, confidence-specific accuracy for same- and cross-race faces did not significantly differ when overall performance was above chance levels (Experiments 1, 2, and 3) but significantly differed when overall performance was at chance levels (Experiment 4). Thus, under certain conditions, high-confidence same-race and cross-race identifications may be equally reliable.

  2. Australian midwives and provision of nutrition education during pregnancy: A cross sectional survey of nutrition knowledge, attitudes, and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrish, Jamila; Yeatman, Heather; Williamson, Moira

    2016-10-01

    Maternal nutrition during pregnancy affects the health of the mother and the baby. Midwives are ideally placed to provide nutrition education to pregnant women. There is limited published research evidence of Australian midwives' nutrition knowledge, attitudes and confidence. To investigate Australian midwives' nutrition knowledge, attitudes and confidence in providing nutrition education during pregnancy. Members of the Australian College of Midwives (n=4770) were sent an invitation email to participate in a web-based survey, followed by two reminders. The completion rate was 6.9% (329 of 4770). The majority (86.6% and 75.7%, respectively) highly rated the importance of nutrition during pregnancy and the significance of their role in nutrition education. Midwives' nutrition knowledge was inadequate in several areas such as weight gain, dairy serves and iodine requirements (73.3%, 73.2% and 79.9% incorrect responses, respectively). The level of confidence in discussing general and specific nutrition issues ranged mostly from moderate to low. The majority of the midwives (93%) provided nutrition advice to pregnant women. This advice was mostly described as 'general' and focused on general nutrition topics. Only half of the midwives reported receiving nutrition education during midwifery education (51.1%) or after registration (54.1%). Australian midwives' attitudes towards nutrition during pregnancy and their role in educating pregnant women about it were positive but their knowledge and confidence did not align with these attitudes. This could be due to minimal nutrition education during midwifery education or during practice. Continued education to improve midwives' nutrition knowledge and confidence is essential. Copyright © 2016 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

    2014-01-01

    The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

  4. Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tak Fung

    Full Text Available The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%, a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L., occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

  5. Believing in "us": exploring leaders' capacity to enhance team confidence and performance by building a sense of shared social identity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, Katrien; Haslam, S Alexander; Steffens, Niklas K; Vanbeselaere, Norbert; De Cuyper, Bert; Boen, Filip

    2015-03-01

    The present study examined the impact of athlete leaders' perceived confidence on their teammates' confidence and performance. Male basketball players (N = 102) participated in groups of 4. To manipulate leaders' team confidence, the appointed athlete leader of each newly formed basketball team (a confederate) expressed either high or low team confidence. The results revealed an effect of team confidence contagion such that team members had greater team confidence when the leader expressed high (rather than low) confidence in the team's success. Second, the present study sought to explain the mechanisms through which this contagion occurs. In line with the social identity approach to leadership, structural equation modeling demonstrated that this effect was partially mediated by team members' increased team identification. Third, findings indicated that when leaders expressed high team confidence, team members' performance increased during the test, but when leaders expressed low confidence, team members' performance decreased. Athlete leaders thus have the capacity to shape team members' confidence--and hence their performance--in both positive and negative ways. In particular, by showing that they believe in "our team," leaders are able not only to make "us" a psychological reality, but also to transform "us" into an effective operational unit. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  6. Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

    2008-04-02

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

  7. Animal Spirits and Extreme Confidence: No Guts, No Glory?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G. Douwens-Zonneveld (Mariska)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis study investigates to what extent extreme confidence of either management or security analysts may impact financial or operating performance. We construct a multidimensional degree of company confidence measure from a wide range of corporate decisions. We empirically test this

  8. Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Timothy C

    2009-06-01

    The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.

  9. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  10. A scale for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Lans, van der I.A.; Renes, R.J.; Frewer, L.J.

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop and validate a scale to measure general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Results from exploratory and confirmatory analyses indicate that general consumer confidence in the safety of food consists of two distinct dimensions, optimism and pessimism,

  11. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  12. Monitoring consumer confidence in food safety: an exploratory study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.; Frewer, L.J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Renes, R.J.; Wit, de W.; Timmers, J.C.M.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract: In response to the potential for negative economic and societal effects resulting from a low level of consumer confidence in food safety, it is important to know how confidence is potentially influenced by external events. The aim of this article is to describe the development of a monitor

  13. Modeling Confidence and Response Time in Recognition Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.

    2009-01-01

    A new model for confidence judgments in recognition memory is presented. In the model, the match between a single test item and memory produces a distribution of evidence, with better matches corresponding to distributions with higher means. On this match dimension, confidence criteria are placed, and the areas between the criteria under the…

  14. Music educators : their artistry and self-confidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lion-Slovak, Brigitte; Stöger, Christine; Smilde, Rineke; Malmberg, Isolde; de Vugt, Adri

    2013-01-01

    How does artistic identity influence the self-confidence of music educators? What is the interconnection between the artistic and the teacher identity? What is actually meant by artistic identity in music education? What is a fruitful environment for the development of artistic self-confidence of

  15. To protect and serve: Restoring public confidence in the SAPS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Persistent incidents of brutality, criminal behaviour and abuse of authority by members of South Africa's police agencies have serious implications for public trust and confidence in the police. A decline in trust and confidence in the police is inevitably harmful to the ability of the government to reduce crime and improve public ...

  16. Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Buratti

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying confidence judgments in need of adjustment and then modifying them. The participants managed to increase their metacognitive realism, thus decreasing their absolute bias and improving their calibration, although the effects were small. We also examined the relationship between confidence judgments that were adjusted and the retrieval fluency and the phenomenological memory quality participants experienced when first answering the questions; this quality was one of either Remember (associated with concrete, vivid details or Know (associated with a feeling of familiarity. Confidence judgments associated with low retrieval fluency and the memory quality of knowing were modified more often. In brief, our results provide evidence that people can improve the realism of their confidence judgments, mainly by decreasing their confidence for incorrect answers. Thus, this study supports the conclusion that people can perform successful second-order metacognitive judgments.

  17. Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zylberberg, Ariel; Roelfsema, Pieter R.; Sigman, Mariano

    2014-01-01

    Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments

  18. On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2018-02-01

    Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. A simultaneous confidence band for sparse longitudinal regression

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Shujie; Yang, Lijian; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2012-01-01

    Functional data analysis has received considerable recent attention and a number of successful applications have been reported. In this paper, asymptotically simultaneous confidence bands are obtained for the mean function of the functional regression model, using piecewise constant spline estimation. Simulation experiments corroborate the asymptotic theory. The confidence band procedure is illustrated by analyzing CD4 cell counts of HIV infected patients.

  20. Family Health Histories and Their Impact on Retirement Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zick, Cathleen D; Mayer, Robert N; Smith, Ken R

    2015-08-01

    Retirement confidence is a key social barometer. In this article, we examine how personal and parental health histories relate to working-age adults' feelings of optimism or pessimism about their overall retirement prospects. This study links survey data on retirement planning with information on respondents' own health histories and those of their parents. The multivariate models control for the respondents' socio-demographic and economic characteristics along with past retirement planning activities when estimating the relationships between family health histories and retirement confidence. Retirement confidence is inversely related to parental history of cancer and cardiovascular disease but not to personal health history. In contrast, retirement confidence is positively associated with both parents being deceased. As members of the public become increasingly aware of how genetics and other family factors affect intergenerational transmission of chronic diseases, it is likely that the link between family health histories and retirement confidence will intensify. © The Author(s) 2015.

  1. Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2017-05-09

    Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This "confidence weighting" implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain's learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences.

  2. Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2017-01-01

    Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This “confidence weighting” implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain’s learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences. PMID:28439014

  3. Teachers' confidence in teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality in South African and Tanzanian schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helleve, Arnfinn; Flisher, Alan J; Onya, Hans; Kaaya, Sylvia; Mukoma, Wanjiru; Swai, Caroline; Klepp, Knut-Inge

    2009-06-01

    This study aimed to investigate how confident and comfortable teachers at Tanzanian and South African urban and rural schools are in teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality. It also aimed at identifying factors associated with teacher confidence and investigated how reported confidence was associated with the implementation of educational programmes on HIV/AIDS and sexuality. A survey was conducted among South African grade 8 and 9 Life Orientation teachers, and among science teachers for grade 5 to 7 in public primary schools in Tanzania. Teachers' confidence levels were measured on a four-item scale (0-3). A total number of 266 teachers participated in a survey in 86 schools in South Africa and Tanzania. Overall, teachers report to be rather confident in teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality. Tanzanian teachers reported higher levels of confidence then did their South Africa colleagues (2.1 vs. 1.8; p teaching was significantly associated with the numbers of years teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality, formal training in these subjects, experience in discussing the topics with others, school policy and priority given to teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality at school. Finally, confidence in teaching remained positively associated with self-reported successful implementation of school-based programmes after adjusting for gender, age, religion and numbers of years teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality. Across urban and rural sites in South Africa and Tanzania teachers reported to be fairly confident in teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality. Further strengthening of their confidence levels could, however, be an important measure for improving the implementation of such programmes.

  4. High reliability EPI-base radiation hardened power transistor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, L.E.; Saltich, J.L.

    1978-01-01

    A high-voltage power transistor is described which is able to withstand fluences as high as 3 x 10 14 neutrons per square centimeter and still be able to operate satisfactorily. The collector may be made essentially half as thick and twice as heavily doped as normally and its base is made in two regions which together are essentially four times as thick as the normal power transistor base region. The base region has a heavily doped upper region and a lower region intermediate the upper heavily doped region and the collector. The doping in the intermediate region is as close to intrinsic as possible, in any event less than about 3 x 10 15 impurities per cubic centimeter. The second base region has small width in comparison to the first base region, the ratio of the first to the second being at least about 5 to 1. The base region having the upper heavily doped region and the intermediate or lower low doped region contributes to the higher breakdown voltage which the transistor is able to withstand. The high doping of the collector region essentially lowers that portion of the breakdown voltage achieved by the collector region. Accordingly, it is necessary to transfer certain of this breakdown capability to the base region and this is achieved by using the upper region of heavily doped and an intermediate or lower region of low doping

  5. Mesoporous Silicon-Based Anodes for High Capacity, High Performance Li-ion Batteries, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A new high capacity anode composite based on mesoporous silicon is proposed. By virtue of a structure that resembles a pseudo one-dimensional phase, the active anode...

  6. Investigating the psychological resilience, self-confidence and problem-solving skills of midwife candidates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ertekin Pinar, Sukran; Yildirim, Gulay; Sayin, Neslihan

    2018-05-01

    The high level of psychological resilience, self-confidence and problem solving skills of midwife candidates play an important role in increasing the quality of health care and in fulfilling their responsibilities towards patients. This study was conducted to investigate the psychological resilience, self-confidence and problem-solving skills of midwife candidates. It is a convenience descriptive quantitative study. Students who study at Health Sciences Faculty in Turkey's Central Anatolia Region. Midwife candidates (N = 270). In collection of data, the Personal Information Form, Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults (PRSA), Self-Confidence Scale (SCS), and Problem Solving Inventory (PSI) were used. There was a negatively moderate-level significant relationship between the Problem Solving Inventory scores and the Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults scores (r = -0.619; p = 0.000), and between Self-Confidence Scale scores (r = -0.524; p = 0.000). There was a positively moderate-level significant relationship between the Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults scores and the Self-Confidence Scale scores (r = 0.583; p = 0.000). There was a statistically significant difference (p Problem Solving Inventory and the Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults scores according to getting support in a difficult situation. As psychological resilience and self-confidence levels increase, problem-solving skills increase; additionally, as self-confidence increases, psychological resilience increases too. Psychological resilience, self-confidence, and problem-solving skills of midwife candidates in their first-year of studies are higher than those who are in their fourth year. Self-confidence and psychological resilience of midwife candidates aged between 17 and 21, self-confidence and problem solving skills of residents of city centers, psychological resilience of those who perceive their monthly income as sufficient are high

  7. Confidence with and Barriers to Serious Illness Communication: A National Survey of Hospitalists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, Leah B; Greenwald, Jeff; Caponi, Bartho; Doshi, Ami; Epstein, Howard; Frank, Jeff; Lindenberger, Elizabeth; Marzano, Nick; Mills, Lynnea M; Razzak, Rab; Risser, James; Anderson, Wendy G

    2017-09-01

    To describe the concerns, confidence, and barriers of practicing hospitalists around serious illness communication. Hospitalist physicians are optimally positioned to provide primary palliative care, yet their experiences in serious illness communication are not well described. Web-based survey, conducted in May 2016. The survey link was distributed via email to 4000 members of the Society of Hospital Medicine. The 39-item survey assessed frequency of concerns about serious illness communication, confidence for common tasks, and barriers using Likert-type scales. It was developed by the authors based on prior work, a focus group, and feedback from pilot respondents. We received 332 completed surveys. On most or every shift, many participants reported having concerns about a patient's or family's understanding of prognosis (53%) or the patient's code status (63%). Most participants were either confident or very confident in discussing goals of care (93%) and prognosis (87%). Fewer were confident or very confident in responding to patients or families who had not accepted the seriousness of an illness (59%) or in managing conflict (50%). Other frequently cited barriers were lack of time, lack of prior discussions in the outpatient setting, unrealistic prognostic expectations from other physicians, limited institutional support, and difficulty finding records of previous discussions. Our results suggest opportunities to improve hospitalists' ability to lead serious illness communication by increasing the time hospitalists have for discussions, improving documentation systems and communication between inpatient and outpatient clinicians, and targeted training on challenging communication scenarios.

  8. Enhancing student engagement to positively impact mathematics anxiety, confidence and achievement for interdisciplinary science subjects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everingham, Yvette L.; Gyuris, Emma; Connolly, Sean R.

    2017-11-01

    Contemporary science educators must equip their students with the knowledge and practical know-how to connect multiple disciplines like mathematics, computing and the natural sciences to gain a richer and deeper understanding of a scientific problem. However, many biology and earth science students are prejudiced against mathematics due to negative emotions like high mathematical anxiety and low mathematical confidence. Here, we present a theoretical framework that investigates linkages between student engagement, mathematical anxiety, mathematical confidence, student achievement and subject mastery. We implement this framework in a large, first-year interdisciplinary science subject and monitor its impact over several years from 2010 to 2015. The implementation of the framework coincided with an easing of anxiety and enhanced confidence, as well as higher student satisfaction, retention and achievement. The framework offers interdisciplinary science educators greater flexibility and confidence in their approach to designing and delivering subjects that rely on mathematical concepts and practices.

  9. Government policy, research and stakeholder confidence - Current Trends in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Letourneau, Carmel

    2006-01-01

    for research can shift over time, as knowledge grows, and the roles of the public and private sectors evolve. Reference was made to the 'precautionary principle' that has been an important factor in setting priorities in science and technology research and development since the early 1990's. Precautionary decision-making is in keeping with Canadians social, environmental and economic values and priorities. The author commented that the application of 'precaution', the 'precautionary principle', the 'precautionary approach', also recognizes that the absence of full scientific uncertainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing decisions where there is a risk of serious or irreversible harm. R and D can assist to improve stakeholder confidence and risk management, but should not be used to unnecessarily delay decisions to reach zero risk. When considering public views, governments will need to balance their ability to practice good governance (making decisions) with the thoughtful application of precaution (delaying decisions until more research can be carried out). This approach should lead to increasing public confidence in RWM decisions based on sound R and D

  10. Cultural Repercussions: Extending Our Knowledge about How Values of Trust and Confidence Influence Tax Structures within Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna Lierse

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Within a unified Europe that is heading towards ever more harmonization,it is interesting to examine why there exists such diversity in tax regimesamong its countries. Is it possible that some of the decisions pertaining totaxation are based on latent cultural aspects? This study, set in a purelyEuropean context, seeks to analyze tax variations within Europe through thelens of cultural variations. Specifically, how trust, confidence and equalitymatter with regard to tax revenues and tax progressivity. Within this regard,we achieved strong results linking trust and confidence to higher tax revenuesand higher tax progressivity. That is, where trust among societal membersis low and confidence in public institutions is low, regimes opt for low taxrevenues and lenient tax rates. It is argued that where mistrust is high, theissue of income distribution between societal members is likely to stay withinthe private or individual sphere. Conversely, countries with high trust amongsocietal members exhibit higher levels of income distribution by delegatingmore responsibility to public institutions, reflected in higher tax revenues andmore progressive tax structures.

  11. High-Pressure Design of Advanced BN-Based Materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleksandr O. Kurakevych

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present review is to highlight the state of the art in high-pressure design of new advanced materials based on boron nitride. Recent experimental achievements on the governing phase transformation, nanostructuring and chemical synthesis in the systems containing boron nitride at high pressures and high temperatures are presented. All these developments allowed discovering new materials, e.g., ultrahard nanocrystalline cubic boron nitride (nano-cBN with hardness comparable to diamond, and superhard boron subnitride B13N2. Thermodynamic and kinetic aspects of high-pressure synthesis are described based on the data obtained by in situ and ex situ methods. Mechanical and thermal properties (hardness, thermoelastic equations of state, etc. are discussed. New synthetic perspectives, combining both soft chemistry and extreme pressure–temperature conditions are considered.

  12. Sapphire-fiber-based distributed high-temperature sensing system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bo; Yu, Zhihao; Hill, Cary; Cheng, Yujie; Homa, Daniel; Pickrell, Gary; Wang, Anbo

    2016-09-15

    We present, for the first time to our knowledge, a sapphire-fiber-based distributed high-temperature sensing system based on a Raman distributed sensing technique. High peak power laser pulses at 532 nm were coupled into the sapphire fiber to generate the Raman signal. The returned Raman Stokes and anti-Stokes signals were measured in the time domain to determine the temperature distribution along the fiber. The sensor was demonstrated from room temperature up to 1200°C in which the average standard deviation is about 3.7°C and a spatial resolution of about 14 cm was achieved.

  13. Towards a high throughput droplet-based agglutination assay

    KAUST Repository

    Kodzius, Rimantas; Castro, David; Foulds, Ian G.

    2013-01-01

    This work demonstrates the detection method for a high throughput droplet based agglutination assay system. Using simple hydrodynamic forces to mix and aggregate functionalized microbeads we avoid the need to use magnetic assistance or mixing structures. The concentration of our target molecules was estimated by agglutination strength, obtained through optical image analysis. Agglutination in droplets was performed with flow rates of 150 µl/min and occurred in under a minute, with potential to perform high-throughput measurements. The lowest target concentration detected in droplet microfluidics was 0.17 nM, which is three orders of magnitude more sensitive than a conventional card based agglutination assay.

  14. Towards a high throughput droplet-based agglutination assay

    KAUST Repository

    Kodzius, Rimantas

    2013-10-22

    This work demonstrates the detection method for a high throughput droplet based agglutination assay system. Using simple hydrodynamic forces to mix and aggregate functionalized microbeads we avoid the need to use magnetic assistance or mixing structures. The concentration of our target molecules was estimated by agglutination strength, obtained through optical image analysis. Agglutination in droplets was performed with flow rates of 150 µl/min and occurred in under a minute, with potential to perform high-throughput measurements. The lowest target concentration detected in droplet microfluidics was 0.17 nM, which is three orders of magnitude more sensitive than a conventional card based agglutination assay.

  15. Provider confidence in opioid prescribing and chronic pain management: results of the Opioid Therapy Provider Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Amy CS; Moman, Rajat N; Moeschler, Susan M; Eldrige, Jason S; Hooten, W Michael

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Many providers report lack of confidence in managing patients with chronic pain. Thus, the primary aim of this study was to investigate the associations of provider confidence in managing chronic pain with their practice behaviors and demographics. Materials and methods The primary outcome measure was the results of the Opioid Therapy Provider Survey, which was administered to clinicians attending a pain-focused continuing medical education conference. Nonparametric correlations were assessed using Spearman’s rho. Results Of the respondents, 55.0% were women, 92.8% were white, and 56.5% were physicians. Primary care providers accounted for 56.5% of the total respondents. The majority of respondents (60.8%) did not feel confident managing patients with chronic pain. Provider confidence in managing chronic pain was positively correlated with 1) following an opioid therapy protocol (P=0.001), 2) the perceived ability to identify patients at risk for opioid misuse (P=0.006), and 3) using a consistent practice-based approach to improve their comfort level with prescribing opioids (Pcorrelated with the perception that treating pain patients was a “problem in my practice” (P=0.005). Conclusion In this study, the majority of providers did not feel confident managing chronic pain. However, provider confidence was associated with a protocolized and consistent practice-based approach toward managing opioids and the perceived ability to identify patients at risk for opioid misuse. Future studies should investigate whether provider confidence is associated with measurable competence in managing chronic pain and explore approaches to enhance appropriate levels of confidence in caring for patients with chronic pain. PMID:28652805

  16. Estimating confidence intervals in predicted responses for oscillatory biological models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Peter C; Doyle, Francis J

    2013-07-29

    The dynamics of gene regulation play a crucial role in a cellular control: allowing the cell to express the right proteins to meet changing needs. Some needs, such as correctly anticipating the day-night cycle, require complicated oscillatory features. In the analysis of gene regulatory networks, mathematical models are frequently used to understand how a network's structure enables it to respond appropriately to external inputs. These models typically consist of a set of ordinary differential equations, describing a network of biochemical reactions, and unknown kinetic parameters, chosen such that the model best captures experimental data. However, since a model's parameter values are uncertain, and since dynamic responses to inputs are highly parameter-dependent, it is difficult to assess the confidence associated with these in silico predictions. In particular, models with complex dynamics - such as oscillations - must be fit with computationally expensive global optimization routines, and cannot take advantage of existing measures of identifiability. Despite their difficulty to model mathematically, limit cycle oscillations play a key role in many biological processes, including cell cycling, metabolism, neuron firing, and circadian rhythms. In this study, we employ an efficient parameter estimation technique to enable a bootstrap uncertainty analysis for limit cycle models. Since the primary role of systems biology models is the insight they provide on responses to rate perturbations, we extend our uncertainty analysis to include first order sensitivity coefficients. Using a literature model of circadian rhythms, we show how predictive precision is degraded with decreasing sample points and increasing relative error. Additionally, we show how this method can be used for model discrimination by comparing the output identifiability of two candidate model structures to published literature data. Our method permits modellers of oscillatory systems to confidently

  17. Highly Branched Bio-Based Unsaturated Polyesters by Enzymatic Polymerization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Hiep Dinh; Löf, David; Hvilsted, Søren

    2016-01-01

    A one-pot, enzyme-catalyzed bulk polymerization method for direct production of highly branched polyesters has been developed as an alternative to currently used industrial procedures. Bio-based feed components in the form of glycerol, pentaerythritol, azelaic acid, and tall oil fatty acid (TOFA)...... stability, very high water contact angles of up to 141° and a glass transition temperature that could be controlled through the feed composition....

  18. Functions and Design Scheme of Tibet High Altitude Test Base

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yu Yongqing; Guo Jian; Yin Yu; Mao Yan; Li Guangfan; Fan Jianbin; Lu Jiayu; Su Zhiyi; Li Peng; Li Qingfeng; Liao Weiming; Zhou Jun

    2010-01-01

    @@ The functional orientation of the Tibet High Altitude Test Base, subordinated to the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC), is to serve power transmission projects in high altitude areas, especially to provide technical support for southwestern hydropower delivery projects by UHVDC transmission and Qinghai-Tibet grid interconnection project. This paper presents the matters concerned during siting and planning, functions,design scheme, the main performances and parameters of the test facilities, as well as the tests and research tasks already carried out.

  19. ACHIEVEMENT GOALS AND INTENSIVITY OF PHYSICAL ACTIVITY DURING FREE PLAY IN CHILDREN: THE MODERATING ROLE OF PERCEIVED SPORT CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Lochbaum Marc

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to examine the moderating role of sport confidence and resultant the achievement goal profile with physical activity intensity during free play. Material: participants were 28 children participating in an after-school program. The 28 children completed measures of task and ego goal orientations and sport confidence two weeks prior to having their heart rate monitored during a free play session. Results: indicated that children with high sport confidence were characterized ( p 1.10 by higher task and ego orientations and average heart rate over the course of the free play session when compared to the low sport confidence children. The moderate sport confidence children were not significantly different than the other groups expect for ego orientation though effect sizes indicated this group tended towards being more similar to the high sport confidence group. The results were confounded as all children in the low sport confidence condition were girls. Conclusions: Sport confidence moderates physical activity intensity during free play in children and is characterized by a higher ego orientation and generally higher task orientation. But given all of the low confident children were females, intervention work is needed at early ages with girls to build sport confidence and motivations for both goal orientations to hopefully increase physical activity intensity during free play.

  20. Individual tree detection based on densities of high points of high resolution airborne lidar

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abd Rahman, M.Z.; Gorte, B.G.H.

    2008-01-01

    The retrieval of individual tree location from Airborne LiDAR has focused largely on utilizing canopy height. However, high resolution Airborne LiDAR offers another source of information for tree detection. This paper presents a new method for tree detection based on high points’ densities from a

  1. High dynamic range image acquisition based on multiplex cameras

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Hairui; Sun, Huayan; Zhang, Tinghua

    2018-03-01

    High dynamic image is an important technology of photoelectric information acquisition, providing higher dynamic range and more image details, and it can better reflect the real environment, light and color information. Currently, the method of high dynamic range image synthesis based on different exposure image sequences cannot adapt to the dynamic scene. It fails to overcome the effects of moving targets, resulting in the phenomenon of ghost. Therefore, a new high dynamic range image acquisition method based on multiplex cameras system was proposed. Firstly, different exposure images sequences were captured with the camera array, using the method of derivative optical flow based on color gradient to get the deviation between images, and aligned the images. Then, the high dynamic range image fusion weighting function was established by combination of inverse camera response function and deviation between images, and was applied to generated a high dynamic range image. The experiments show that the proposed method can effectively obtain high dynamic images in dynamic scene, and achieves good results.

  2. Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

    2017-11-01

    Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  3. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

    2015-10-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality.

  4. Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broten, G S; Wood, H C [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network`s ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor`s response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in

  5. Abstracting event-based control models for high autonomy systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luh, Cheng-Jye; Zeigler, Bernard P.

    1993-01-01

    A high autonomy system needs many models on which to base control, management, design, and other interventions. These models differ in level of abstraction and in formalism. Concepts and tools are needed to organize the models into a coherent whole. The paper deals with the abstraction processes for systematic derivation of related models for use in event-based control. The multifaceted modeling methodology is briefly reviewed. The morphism concepts needed for application to model abstraction are described. A theory for supporting the construction of DEVS models needed for event-based control is then presented. An implemented morphism on the basis of this theory is also described.

  6. What is 'confidence' and what could affect it?: A qualitative study of mothers who are hesitant about vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendel-Van Alstyne, Judith A; Nowak, Glen J; Aikin, Ann L

    2017-09-09

    Public confidence in immunization is critical to maintaining high vaccine-coverage rates needed to protect individuals and communities from vaccine-preventable diseases. Recent attention has been placed on factors influencing confidence in vaccination in the US and globally, but comprehensive understanding of what drives or hinders confidence in childhood vaccination is yet to be reached. As such, assessing parents' confidence in childhood vaccination and the ways in which educational materials affect confidence is needed. We sought to (1) learn how mothers who are hesitant about vaccination characterize confidence in health-related products for young children, including the recommended vaccines; (2) gain insights on what influences vaccine confidence beliefs; and (3) assess whether short, education materials affect parental confidence in childhood vaccinations. Eight moderator-lead focus groups (n=61), stratified by socioeconomic status, were undertaken with mothers of children 5years of age of less who are hesitant about vaccines. Four of the groups were held in the Philadelphia, PA area and four were held in the San Francisco/Oakland, CA area. Three educational material pairs, each consisting of a 2-3min video and an infographic poster about an immunization-related topic, were reviewed and assessed for influence on confidence. Qualitative data analysis was used to identify overarching themes across the focus groups. Themes, insights, and illustrative quotes were identified and provided for each of the major discussion areas: primary health concerns for young children; confidence beliefs and perceptions, including for recommended vaccines; facilitators and barriers to confidence; and reactions to the educational materials. Results provide helpful insights into how mothers who are hesitant about vaccines perceive confidence in childhood vaccines and health-related products, suggestions for how to improve confidence, and support for the value and use of short

  7. High Throughput WAN Data Transfer with Hadoop-based Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amin, A.; Bockelman, B.; Letts, J.; Levshina, T.; Martin, T.; Pi, H.; Sfiligoi, I.; Thomas, M.; Wüerthwein, F.

    2011-12-01

    Hadoop distributed file system (HDFS) is becoming more popular in recent years as a key building block of integrated grid storage solution in the field of scientific computing. Wide Area Network (WAN) data transfer is one of the important data operations for large high energy physics experiments to manage, share and process datasets of PetaBytes scale in a highly distributed grid computing environment. In this paper, we present the experience of high throughput WAN data transfer with HDFS-based Storage Element. Two protocols, GridFTP and fast data transfer (FDT), are used to characterize the network performance of WAN data transfer.

  8. High Throughput WAN Data Transfer with Hadoop-based Storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amin, A; Thomas, M; Bockelman, B; Letts, J; Martin, T; Pi, H; Sfiligoi, I; Wüerthwein, F; Levshina, T

    2011-01-01

    Hadoop distributed file system (HDFS) is becoming more popular in recent years as a key building block of integrated grid storage solution in the field of scientific computing. Wide Area Network (WAN) data transfer is one of the important data operations for large high energy physics experiments to manage, share and process datasets of PetaBytes scale in a highly distributed grid computing environment. In this paper, we present the experience of high throughput WAN data transfer with HDFS-based Storage Element. Two protocols, GridFTP and fast data transfer (FDT), are used to characterize the network performance of WAN data transfer.

  9. Parallel Microcracks-based Ultrasensitive and Highly Stretchable Strain Sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amjadi, Morteza; Turan, Mehmet; Clementson, Cameron P; Sitti, Metin

    2016-03-02

    There is an increasing demand for flexible, skin-attachable, and wearable strain sensors due to their various potential applications. However, achieving strain sensors with both high sensitivity and high stretchability is still a grand challenge. Here, we propose highly sensitive and stretchable strain sensors based on the reversible microcrack formation in composite thin films. Controllable parallel microcracks are generated in graphite thin films coated on elastomer films. Sensors made of graphite thin films with short microcracks possess high gauge factors (maximum value of 522.6) and stretchability (ε ≥ 50%), whereas sensors with long microcracks show ultrahigh sensitivity (maximum value of 11,344) with limited stretchability (ε ≤ 50%). We demonstrate the high performance strain sensing of our sensors in both small and large strain sensing applications such as human physiological activity recognition, human body large motion capturing, vibration detection, pressure sensing, and soft robotics.

  10. PV source based high voltage gain current fed converter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Soumya; Poddar, Sahityika; Chimonyo, Kudzai B.; Arunkumar, G.; Elangovan, D.

    2017-11-01

    This work involves designing and simulation of a PV source based high voltage gain, current fed converter. It deals with an isolated DC-DC converter which utilizes boost converter topology. The proposed converter is capable of high voltage gain and above all have very high efficiency levels as proved by the simulation results. The project intends to produce an output of 800 V dc from a 48 V dc input. The simulation results obtained from PSIM application interface were used to analyze the performance of the proposed converter. Transformer used in the circuit steps up the voltage as well as to provide electrical isolation between the low voltage and high voltage side. Since the converter involves high switching frequency of 100 kHz, ultrafast recovery diodes are employed in the circuitry. The major application of the project is for future modeling of solar powered electric hybrid cars.

  11. High power density reactors based on direct cooled particle beds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, J. R.; Horn, F. L.

    Reactors based on direct cooled High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTGR) type particle fuel are described. The small diameter particle fuel is packed between concentric porous cylinders to make annular fuel elements, with the inlet coolant gas flowing inwards. Hot exit gas flows out along the central channel of each element. Because of the very large heat transfer area in the packed beds, power densities in particle bed reactors (PBRs) are extremely high resulting in compact, lightweight systems. Coolant exit temperatures are high, because of the ceramic fuel temperature capabilities, and the reactors can be ramped to full power and temperature very rapidly. PBR systems can generate very high burst power levels using open cycle hydrogen coolant, or high continuous powers using closed cycle helium coolant. PBR technology is described and development requirements assessed.

  12. Soliton-based ultra-high speed optical communications

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    All these facts are the outcome of research on optical solitons in fibers in spite of the fact that the commonly used RZ format is not always called a soliton format. The overview presented here attempts to incorporate the role of soliton-based communications research in present day ultra-high speed communications.

  13. High temperature performance of soy-based adhesives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jane L. O’Dell; Christopher G. Hunt; Charles R. Frihart

    2013-01-01

    We studied the high temperature performance of soy meal processed to different protein concentrations (flour, concentrate, and isolate), as well as formulated soy-based adhesives, and commercial nonsoy adhesives for comparison. No thermal transitions were seen in phenol-resorcinol-formaldehyde (PRF) or soy-phenol-formaldehyde (SoyPF) or in as-received soy flour...

  14. Health. Nevada Competency-Based Adult High School Diploma Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevada Univ., Las Vegas. Coll. of Education.

    This document is one of ten curriculum guides developed by the Nevada Competency-Based Adult High School Diploma (CBAHSD) Project. This curriculum guide on health is divided into ten topics. The topics included are Nutrition, Reproduction, Menstruation, Contraception, Alcohol Abuse, Tobacco, Immunization, Disease, Accident Prevention, and…

  15. Carbon nanotube transistor based high-frequency electronics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroter, Michael

    At the nanoscale carbon nanotubes (CNTs) have higher carrier mobility and carrier velocity than most incumbent semiconductors. Thus CNT based field-effect transistors (FETs) are being considered as strong candidates for replacing existing MOSFETs in digital applications. In addition, the predicted high intrinsic transit frequency and the more recent finding of ways to achieve highly linear transfer characteristics have inspired investigations on analog high-frequency (HF) applications. High linearity is extremely valuable for an energy efficient usage of the frequency spectrum, particularly in mobile communications. Compared to digital applications, the much more relaxed constraints for CNT placement and lithography combined with already achieved operating frequencies of at least 10 GHz for fabricated devices make an early entry in the low GHz HF market more feasible than in large-scale digital circuits. Such a market entry would be extremely beneficial for funding the development of production CNTFET based process technology. This talk will provide an overview on the present status and feasibility of HF CNTFET technology will be given from an engineering point of view, including device modeling, experimental results, and existing roadblocks. Carbon nanotube transistor based high-frequency electronics.

  16. Frequency selective surfaces based high performance microstrip antenna

    CERN Document Server

    Narayan, Shiv; Jha, Rakesh Mohan

    2016-01-01

    This book focuses on performance enhancement of printed antennas using frequency selective surfaces (FSS) technology. The growing demand of stealth technology in strategic areas requires high-performance low-RCS (radar cross section) antennas. Such requirements may be accomplished by incorporating FSS into the antenna structure either in its ground plane or as the superstrate, due to the filter characteristics of FSS structure. In view of this, a novel approach based on FSS technology is presented in this book to enhance the performance of printed antennas including out-of-band structural RCS reduction. In this endeavor, the EM design of microstrip patch antennas (MPA) loaded with FSS-based (i) high impedance surface (HIS) ground plane, and (ii) the superstrates are discussed in detail. The EM analysis of proposed FSS-based antenna structures have been carried out using transmission line analogy, in combination with the reciprocity theorem. Further, various types of novel FSS structures are considered in desi...

  17. High Brightness Injectors Based On Photocathode DC Gun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    B. Yunn

    2001-01-01

    Sample results of new injector design method based on a photocathode dc gun are presented, based on other work analytically proving the validity of the emittance compensation scheme for the case even when beam bunching is involved. We have designed several new injectors appropriate for different bunch charge ranges accordingly. Excellent beam quality produced by these injectors clearly shows that a photocathode dc gun can compete with a rf gun on an equal footing as the source of an electron beam for the bunch charge ranging up to 2 nano Coulomb (nC). This work therefore elevates a dc gun based injector to the preferred choice for many ongoing high brightness accelerator projects considering the proven operational stability and high average power capability of the dc gun

  18. Highly Efficient Coherent Optical Memory Based on Electromagnetically Induced Transparency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiao, Ya-Fen; Tsai, Pin-Ju; Chen, Hung-Shiue; Lin, Sheng-Xiang; Hung, Chih-Chiao; Lee, Chih-Hsi; Chen, Yi-Hsin; Chen, Yong-Fan; Yu, Ite A.; Chen, Ying-Cheng

    2018-05-01

    Quantum memory is an important component in the long-distance quantum communication based on the quantum repeater protocol. To outperform the direct transmission of photons with quantum repeaters, it is crucial to develop quantum memories with high fidelity, high efficiency and a long storage time. Here, we achieve a storage efficiency of 92.0 (1.5)% for a coherent optical memory based on the electromagnetically induced transparency scheme in optically dense cold atomic media. We also obtain a useful time-bandwidth product of 1200, considering only storage where the retrieval efficiency remains above 50%. Both are the best record to date in all kinds of schemes for the realization of optical memory. Our work significantly advances the pursuit of a high-performance optical memory and should have important applications in quantum information science.

  19. A study of the correlation between self-confidence and professional achievement of designers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Rain

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study mainly investigated which mental state of designers, self-confidence or sense of inferiority, has positive effects on professional design achievement. This study attempted to find if there is correlation between designers’ self-confidence or sense of inferiority and their professional achievement. With regard to the tendency of designers’ psychological state, the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale was used to measure designers’ selfconfidence, and statistical computations were made based on gathered data. This study used correlation analysis to find if confidence level of 46 seniors of Design Department is relevant to their professional achievement. The results of the study showed that confidence level of designers has a slight correlation to professional achievement. Factors leading to the study’s findings may be the small amount of sample analyzed or may be the reason that the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale only detected the current level of self-confidence and could not give a proper feedback on designers’ self-confidence during the entire semester. In the future, the results of this study can be considered as a pre-test experiment for a more complete study, and it is expected that results of the study can be for design educators’ reference.

  20. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Document Server

    2007-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC), in 2007." (1 page)

  1. Confidence Measurement in the Light of Signal Detection Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sébastien eMassoni

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale, the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure and the Matching Probability (a generalization of the no-loss gambling method. We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory. We find that the Matching Probability provides better results in that respect. We conclude that Matching Probability is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use Signal Detection Theory as a theoretical framework.

  2. Confidence-building measures in the Asia-Pacific region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin Huasun

    1991-01-01

    The regional confidence-building, security and disarmament issues in the Asia-Pacific region, and in particular, support to non-proliferation regime and establishing nuclear-weapon-free zones are reviewed

  3. Building Supervisory Confidence--A Key to Transfer of Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byham, William C.; Robinson, James

    1977-01-01

    A training concept is described which suggests that efforts toward maintaining and/or building the confidence of the participants in supervisory training programs can increase their likelihood of using the skills on the job. (TA)

  4. Consumer’s and merchant’s confidence in internet payments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franc Bračun

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Performing payment transactions over the Internet is becoming increasingly important. Whenever one interacts with others, he or she faces the problem of uncertainty because in interacting with others, one makes him or herself vulnerable, i.e. one can be betrayed. Thus, perceived risk and confidence are of fundamental importance in electronic payment transactions. A higher risk leads to greater hesitance about entering into a business relationship with a high degree of uncertainty; and therefore, to an increased need for confidence. This paper has two objectives. First, it aims to introduce and test a theoretical model that predicts consumer and merchant acceptance of the Internet payment solution by explaining the complex set of relationships among the key factors influencing confidence in electronic payment transactions. Second, the paper attempts to shed light on the complex interrelationship among confidence, control and perceived risk. An empirical study was conducted to test the proposed model using data from consumers and merchants in Slovenia. The results show how perceived risk dimensions and post-transaction control influence consumer’s and merchant’s confidence in electronic payment transactions, and the impact of confidence on the adoption of mass-market on-line payment solutions.

  5. STUDY ON THE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT ROMANIAN CONSUMERS HAVE REGARDING THE ORGANIC PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narcis Alexandru BOZGA

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Organic agriculture is a domain that is growing rapidly both in Europe or worldwide and in Romania. However, there is a limited number of researches which, by the used methodology, are able to offer a definite and appropriate image of the Romanian market of organic products. In this respect, we considered as relevant to conduct certain market researches which can offer a wide image of the Romanian market of organic products. The present study aimed to briefly present some ideas learned from these researches concerning the level of confidence that the Romanian consumer has in organic products and the way in which the level of confidence may influence the purchasing behavior. Among the most important conclusions, it could be mentioned the low level of confidence that a large number of Romanian consumers has regarding the organic products, the decision to buy organic products is strongly influenced by the confidence expressed by the consumer, as well as the lack of confidence in organic products represents one of the main reasons for not buying it, in some cases being more important than the high price. After a deeper analysis, the final conclusion is that, at least partially, the low level of confidence in organic products is determined by the confusion and the low information level, on one hand, and by some producers' practices that so not seem to comply with the certification community norms.

  6. Vaccination Confidence and Parental Refusal/Delay of Early Childhood Vaccines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa B Gilkey

    Full Text Available To support efforts to address parental hesitancy towards early childhood vaccination, we sought to validate the Vaccination Confidence Scale using data from a large, population-based sample of U.S. parents.We used weighted data from 9,354 parents who completed the 2011 National Immunization Survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 19- to 35-month-old child in their households. Healthcare providers then verified children's vaccination status for vaccines including measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR, varicella, and seasonal flu. We used separate multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations between parents' mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status.A substantial minority of parents reported a history of vaccine refusal (15% or delay (27%. Vaccination confidence was negatively associated with refusal of any vaccine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.63 as well as refusal of MMR, varicella, and flu vaccines specifically. Negative associations between vaccination confidence and measures of vaccine delay were more moderate, including delay of any vaccine (OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76-0.86. Vaccination confidence was positively associated with having received vaccines, including MMR (OR = 1.53, 95% CI, 1.40-1.68, varicella (OR = 1.54, 95% CI, 1.42-1.66, and flu vaccines (OR = 1.32, 95% CI, 1.23-1.42.Vaccination confidence was consistently associated with early childhood vaccination behavior across multiple vaccine types. Our findings support expanding the application of the Vaccination Confidence Scale to measure vaccination beliefs among parents of young children.

  7. Comparison of Points of Departure for Health Risk Assessment Based on High-Throughput Screening Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sand, Salomon; Parham, Fred; Portier, Christopher J.; Tice, Raymond R.; Krewski, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Background: The National Research Council’s vision for toxicity testing in the 21st century anticipates that points of departure (PODs) for establishing human exposure guidelines in future risk assessments will increasingly be based on in vitro high-throughput screening (HTS) data. Objectives: The aim of this study was to compare different PODs for HTS data. Specifically, benchmark doses (BMDs) were compared to the signal-to-noise crossover dose (SNCD), which has been suggested as the lowest dose applicable as a POD. Methods: Hill models were fit to > 10,000 in vitro concentration–response curves, obtained for > 1,400 chemicals tested as part of the U.S. Tox21 Phase I effort. BMDs and lower confidence limits on the BMDs (BMDLs) corresponding to extra effects (i.e., changes in response relative to the maximum response) of 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40% were estimated for > 8,000 curves, along with BMDs and BMDLs corresponding to additional effects (i.e., absolute changes in response) of 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, and 25%. The SNCD, defined as the dose where the ratio between the additional effect and the difference between the upper and lower bounds of the two-sided 90% confidence interval on absolute effect was 1, 0.67, and 0.5, respectively, was also calculated and compared with the BMDLs. Results: The BMDL40, BMDL25, and BMDL18, defined in terms of extra effect, corresponded to the SNCD1.0, SNCD0.67, and SNCD0.5, respectively, at the median. Similarly, the BMDL25, BMDL17, and BMDL13, defined in terms of additional effect, corresponded to the SNCD1.0, SNCD0.67, and SNCD0.5, respectively, at the median. Conclusions: The SNCD may serve as a reference level that guides the determination of standardized BMDs for risk assessment based on HTS concentration–response data. The SNCD may also have application as a POD for low-dose extrapolation. Citation: Sand S, Parham F, Portier CJ, Tice RR, Krewski D. 2017. Comparison of points of departure for health risk assessment based on

  8. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Meyniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics. Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems

  9. Differentially Private Confidence Intervals for Empirical Risk Minimization

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Yue; Kifer, Daniel; Lee, Jaewoo

    2018-01-01

    The process of data mining with differential privacy produces results that are affected by two types of noise: sampling noise due to data collection and privacy noise that is designed to prevent the reconstruction of sensitive information. In this paper, we consider the problem of designing confidence intervals for the parameters of a variety of differentially private machine learning models. The algorithms can provide confidence intervals that satisfy differential privacy (as well as the mor...

  10. Learning style and confidence: an empirical investigation of Japanese employees

    OpenAIRE

    Yoshitaka Yamazaki

    2012-01-01

    This study aims to examine how learning styles relate to employees' confidence through a view of Kolb's experiential learning theory. For this aim, an empirical investigation was conducted using the sample of 201 Japanese employees who work for a Japanese multinational corporation. Results illustrated that the learning style group of acting orientation described a significantly higher level of job confidence than that of reflecting orientation, whereas the two groups of feeling and thinking o...

  11. Learning to make collective decisions: the impact of confidence escalation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoodi, Ali; Bang, Dan; Ahmadabadi, Majid Nili; Bahrami, Bahador

    2013-01-01

    Little is known about how people learn to take into account others' opinions in joint decisions. To address this question, we combined computational and empirical approaches. Human dyads made individual and joint visual perceptual decision and rated their confidence in those decisions (data previously published). We trained a reinforcement (temporal difference) learning agent to get the participants' confidence level and learn to arrive at a dyadic decision by finding the policy that either maximized the accuracy of the model decisions or maximally conformed to the empirical dyadic decisions. When confidences were shared visually without verbal interaction, RL agents successfully captured social learning. When participants exchanged confidences visually and interacted verbally, no collective benefit was achieved and the model failed to predict the dyadic behaviour. Behaviourally, dyad members' confidence increased progressively and verbal interaction accelerated this escalation. The success of the model in drawing collective benefit from dyad members was inversely related to confidence escalation rate. The findings show an automated learning agent can, in principle, combine individual opinions and achieve collective benefit but the same agent cannot discount the escalation suggesting that one cognitive component of collective decision making in human may involve discounting of overconfidence arising from interactions.

  12. High power density reactors based on direct cooled particle beds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Powell, J.R.; Horn, F.L.

    1985-01-01

    Reactors based on direct cooled HTGR type particle fuel are described. The small diameter particle fuel is packed between concentric porous cylinders to make annular fuel elements, with the inlet coolant gas flowing inwards. Hot exit gas flows out long the central channel of each element. Because of the very large heat transfer area in the packed beds, power densities in particle bed reactors (PBR's) are extremely high resulting in compact, lightweight systems. Coolant exit temperatures are high, because of the ceramic fuel temperature capabilities, and the reactors can be ramped to full power and temperature very rapidly. PBR systems can generate very high burst power levels using open cycle hydrogen coolant, or high continuous powers using closed cycle helium coolant. PBR technology is described and development requirements assessed. 12 figs

  13. GPU-based high-performance computing for radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jia, Xun; Jiang, Steve B; Ziegenhein, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Recent developments in radiotherapy therapy demand high computation powers to solve challenging problems in a timely fashion in a clinical environment. The graphics processing unit (GPU), as an emerging high-performance computing platform, has been introduced to radiotherapy. It is particularly attractive due to its high computational power, small size, and low cost for facility deployment and maintenance. Over the past few years, GPU-based high-performance computing in radiotherapy has experienced rapid developments. A tremendous amount of study has been conducted, in which large acceleration factors compared with the conventional CPU platform have been observed. In this paper, we will first give a brief introduction to the GPU hardware structure and programming model. We will then review the current applications of GPU in major imaging-related and therapy-related problems encountered in radiotherapy. A comparison of GPU with other platforms will also be presented. (topical review)

  14. Vanadium based materials as electrode materials for high performance supercapacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yan; Li, Bing; Guo, Wei; Pang, Huan; Xue, Huaiguo

    2016-10-01

    As a kind of supercapacitors, pseudocapacitors have attracted wide attention in recent years. The capacitance of the electrochemical capacitors based on pseudocapacitance arises mainly from redox reactions between electrolytes and active materials. These materials usually have several oxidation states for oxidation and reduction. Many research teams have focused on the development of an alternative material for electrochemical capacitors. Many transition metal oxides have been shown to be suitable as electrode materials of electrochemical capacitors. Among them, vanadium based materials are being developed for this purpose. Vanadium based materials are known as one of the best active materials for high power/energy density electrochemical capacitors due to its outstanding specific capacitance and long cycle life, high conductivity and good electrochemical reversibility. There are different kinds of synthetic methods such as sol-gel hydrothermal/solvothermal method, template method, electrospinning method, atomic layer deposition, and electrodeposition method that have been successfully applied to prepare vanadium based electrode materials. In our review, we give an overall summary and evaluation of the recent progress in the research of vanadium based materials for electrochemical capacitors that include synthesis methods, the electrochemical performances of the electrode materials and the devices.

  15. High-Performance Microsupercapacitors Based on Bioinspired Graphene Microfibers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Hui; Wang, Dawei; Peng, Qingfa; Ma, Jun; Meng, Xin; Zhang, Yaopeng; Ma, Yuning; Zhu, Shenmin; Zhang, Di

    2018-03-28

    The miniaturization of portable electronic devices has fueled the development of microsupercapacitors that hold great potential to complement or even replace microbatteries and electrolytic capacitors. In spite of recent developments taking advantage of printing and lithography, it remains a great challenge to attain a high energy density without sacrificing the power density. Herein, a new protocol mimicking the spider's spinning process is developed to create highly oriented microfibers from graphene-based composites via a purpose-designed microfluidic chip. The orientation provides the microfibers with an electrical conductivity of ∼3 × 10 4 S m -1 , which leads to a high power density; the energy density is sustained by nanocarbons and high-purity metallic molybdenum disulfide. The microfibers are patterned in-plane to fabricate asymmetric microsupercapacitors for flexible and on-chip energy storage. The on-chip microsupercapacitor with a high pattern resolution of 100 μm delivers energy density up to the order of 10 -2 W h cm -3 and retains an ultrahigh power density exceeding 100 W cm -3 in an aqueous electrolyte. This work provides new design of flexible and on-chip asymmetric microsupercapacitors based on microfibers. The unique biomimetic microfluidic fabrication of graphene microfibers for energy storage may also stimulate thinking of the bionic design in many other fields.

  16. Towards highly sensitive strain sensing based on nanostructured materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dao, Dzung Viet; Nakamura, Koichi; Sugiyama, Susumu; Bui, Tung Thanh; Dau, Van Thanh; Yamada, Takeo; Hata, Kenji

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents our recent theoretical and experimental study of piezo-effects in nanostructured materials for highly sensitive, high resolution mechanical sensors. The piezo-effects presented here include the piezoresistive effect in a silicon nanowire (SiNW) and single wall carbon nanotube (SWCNT) thin film, as well as the piezo-optic effect in a Si photonic crystal (PhC) nanocavity. Firstly, the electronic energy band structure of the silicon nanostructure is discussed and simulated by using the First-Principles Calculations method. The result showed a remarkably different energy band structure compared with that of bulk silicon. This difference in the electronic state will result in different physical, chemical, and therefore, sensing properties of silicon nanostructures. The piezoresistive effects of SiNW and SWCNT thin film were investigated experimentally. We found that, when the width of ( 110 ) p-type SiNW decreases from 500 to 35 nm, the piezoresistive effect increases by more than 60%. The longitudinal piezoresistive coefficient of SWCNT thin film was measured to be twice that of bulk p-type silicon. Finally, theoretical investigations of the piezo-optic effect in a PhC nanocavity based on Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) showed extremely high resolution strain sensing. These nanostructures were fabricated based on top-down nanofabrication technology. The achievements of this work are significant for highly sensitive, high resolution and miniaturized mechanical sensors

  17. LED-Based High-Voltage Lines Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eldar MUSA

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available LED-based system, running with the current of high-voltage lines and converting the current flowing through the line into the light by using a toroid transformer, has been developed. The transformer’s primary winding is constituted by the high voltage power line. Toroidal core consists of two equal parts and the secondary windings are evenly placed on these two parts. The system is mounted on the high-voltage lines as a clamp. The secondary winding ends are connected in series by the connector on the clamp. LEDs are supplied by the voltage at the ends of secondary. Current flowing through highvoltage transmission lines is converted to voltage by the toroidal transformer and the light emitting LEDs are supplied with this voltage. The theory of the conversion of the current flowing through the line into the light is given. The system, running with the current of the line and converting the current into the light, has been developed. System has many application areas such as warning high voltage lines (warning winches to not hinder the high-voltage lines when working under the lines, warning planes to not touch the high-voltage lines, remote measurement of high-voltage line currents, and local illumination of the line area

  18. High speed capacitor-inverter based carbon nanotube full adder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navi, K; Rashtian, M; Khatir, A; Keshavarzian, P; Hashemipour, O

    2010-03-18

    Carbon Nanotube filed-effect transistor (CNFET) is one of the promising alternatives to the MOS transistors. The geometry-dependent threshold voltage is one of the CNFET characteristics, which is used in the proposed Full Adder cell. In this paper, we present a high speed Full Adder cell using CNFETs based on majority-not (Minority) function. Presented design uses eight transistors and eight capacitors. Simulation results show significant improvement in terms of delay and power-delay product in comparison to contemporary CNFET Adder Cells. Simulations were carried out using HSPICE based on CNFET model with 0.6 V VDD.

  19. High chromium nickel base alloys hot cracking susceptibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tirand, G.; Primault, C.; Robin, V.

    2014-01-01

    High Chromium nickel based alloys (FM52) have a higher ductility dip cracking sensitivity. New filler material with higher niobium and molybdenum content are developed to decrease the hot crack formation. The behavior of these materials is studied by coupling microstructural analyses and hot cracking test, PVR test. The metallurgical analyses illustrate an Nb and Mo enrichment of the inter-dendritic spaces of the new materials. A niobium high content (FM52MSS) induces the formation of primary carbide at the end of solidification. The PVR test reveal a solidification crack sensitivity of the new materials, and a lowest ductility dip cracking sensitivity for the filler material 52MSS. (authors)

  20. High-power semiconductor RSD-based switch

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bezuglov, V G; Galakhov, I V; Grusin, I A [All-Russian Scientific Research Inst. of Experimental Physics, Sarov (Russian Federation); and others

    1997-12-31

    The operating principle and test results of a high-power semiconductor RSD-based switch with the following operating parameters is described: operating voltage 25 kV, peak operating current 200 kA, maximum transferred charge 70 C. The switch is intended for use by high-power capacitor banks of state-of-the-art research facilities. The switch was evaluated for applicability in commercial pulsed systems. The possibility of increasing the peak operating current to 500 kA is demonstrated. (author). 4 figs., 2 refs.

  1. Stability in the metamemory realism of eyewitness confidence judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buratti, Sandra; Allwood, Carl Martin; Johansson, Marcus

    2014-02-01

    The stability of eyewitness confidence judgments over time in regard to their reported memory and accuracy of these judgments is of interest in forensic contexts because witnesses are often interviewed many times. The present study investigated the stability of the confidence judgments of memory reports of a witnessed event and of the accuracy of these judgments over three occasions, each separated by 1 week. Three age groups were studied: younger children (8-9 years), older children (10-11 years), and adults (19-31 years). A total of 93 participants viewed a short film clip and were asked to answer directed two-alternative forced-choice questions about the film clip and to confidence judge each answer. Different questions about details in the film clip were used on each of the three test occasions. Confidence as such did not exhibit stability over time on an individual basis. However, the difference between confidence and proportion correct did exhibit stability across time, in terms of both over/underconfidence and calibration. With respect to age, the adults and older children exhibited more stability than the younger children for calibration. Furthermore, some support for instability was found with respect to the difference between the average confidence level for correct and incorrect answers (slope). Unexpectedly, however, the younger children's slope was found to be more stable than the adults. Compared to the previous research, the present study's use of more advanced statistical methods provides a more nuanced understanding of the stability of confidence judgments in the eyewitness reports of children and adults.

  2. Highly tailorable thiol-ene based emulsion-templated monoliths

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lafleur, J. P.; Kutter, J. P.

    2014-01-01

    The attractive surface properties of thiol-ene polymers combined with their ease of processing make them ideal substrates in many bioanalytical applications. We report the synthesis of highly tailorable emulsion-templated porous polymers and beads in microfluidic devices based on off-stoichiometr......The attractive surface properties of thiol-ene polymers combined with their ease of processing make them ideal substrates in many bioanalytical applications. We report the synthesis of highly tailorable emulsion-templated porous polymers and beads in microfluidic devices based on off......-stoichiometry thiolene chemistry. The method allows monolith synthesis and anchoring inside thiol-ene microchannels in a single step. Variations in the monomer stoichiometric ratios and/or amount of porogen used allow for the creation of extremely varied polymer morphologies, from foam-like materials to dense networks...

  3. Lithium-Based High Energy Density Flow Batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugga, Ratnakumar V. (Inventor); West, William C. (Inventor); Kindler, Andrew (Inventor); Smart, Marshall C. (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    Systems and methods in accordance with embodiments of the invention implement a lithium-based high energy density flow battery. In one embodiment, a lithium-based high energy density flow battery includes a first anodic conductive solution that includes a lithium polyaromatic hydrocarbon complex dissolved in a solvent, a second cathodic conductive solution that includes a cathodic complex dissolved in a solvent, a solid lithium ion conductor disposed so as to separate the first solution from the second solution, such that the first conductive solution, the second conductive solution, and the solid lithium ionic conductor define a circuit, where when the circuit is closed, lithium from the lithium polyaromatic hydrocarbon complex in the first conductive solution dissociates from the lithium polyaromatic hydrocarbon complex, migrates through the solid lithium ionic conductor, and associates with the cathodic complex of the second conductive solution, and a current is generated.

  4. A high sensitivity nanomaterial based SAW humidity sensor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, T-T; Chou, T-H [Institute of Applied Mechanics, National Taiwan University, Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Chen, Y-Y [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Tatung University, Taipei 104, Taiwan (China)], E-mail: wutt@ndt.iam.ntu.edu.tw

    2008-04-21

    In this paper, a highly sensitive humidity sensor is reported. The humidity sensor is configured by a 128{sup 0}YX-LiNbO{sub 3} based surface acoustic wave (SAW) resonator whose operating frequency is at 145 MHz. A dual delay line configuration is realized to eliminate external temperature fluctuations. Moreover, for nanostructured materials possessing high surface-to-volume ratio, large penetration depth and fast charge diffusion rate, camphor sulfonic acid doped polyaniline (PANI) nanofibres are synthesized by the interfacial polymerization method and further deposited on the SAW resonator as selective coating to enhance sensitivity. The humidity sensor is used to measure various relative humidities in the range 5-90% at room temperature. Results show that the PANI nanofibre based SAW humidity sensor exhibits excellent sensitivity and short-term repeatability.

  5. Investigation of self-compassion, self-confidence and submissive behaviors of nursing students studying in different curriculums.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eraydın, Şahizer; Karagözoğlu, Şerife

    2017-07-01

    Today, nursing education which educates the future members of the nursing profession aims to gain them high self-esteem, selfconfidence and self-compassion, independence, assertiveness and ability to establish good human relations. This aim can only be achieved through a contemporary curriculum supporting students in the educational process and enabling those in charge to make arrangements by taking the characters and needs of each individual into account. The study aims to investigate self-compassion, self-confidence and submissive behaviours of undergraduate nursing students studying in different curriculums. This descriptive, cross-sectional, comparative study was carried out with the 1st- and 4th-year students of the three schools, each of which has a different curriculum: conventional, integrated and Problem Based Learning (PBL). The study data were collected with the Self-Compassion Scale (SCS), Self-Confidence Scale (CS) and Submissive Acts Scale (SAS): The data were analyzed through frequency distribution, means, analysis of variance and the significance test for the difference between the two means. The mean scores the participating students obtained from the Self-Compassion, Self-confidence and Submissive Acts Scales were 3.31±0.56, 131.98±20.85 and 36.48±11.43 respectively. The integrated program students' mean self-compassion and self-confidence scores were statistically significantly higher and their mean submissive behaviour scores were lower than were those of the students studying in the other two programs (pscales revealed that there was a statistically significant relationships between the SCS and CS values (r=0.388, p<0.001), between the SCS and SAS values (r=-0307, p<0.001) and between the CS and SAS values (r=-0325, p<0.001). In line with the study results, it can be said that the participating nursing students tended to display moderate levels of selfcompassion, self-confidence and submissive behaviours, and that the selfcompassion and self-confidence

  6. Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 1. Sampling and Medical Key Parameters Calculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tudor DRUGAN

    2003-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper was to present the usefulness of the binomial distribution in studying of the contingency tables and the problems of approximation to normality of binomial distribution (the limits, advantages, and disadvantages. The classification of the medical keys parameters reported in medical literature and expressing them using the contingency table units based on their mathematical expressions restrict the discussion of the confidence intervals from 34 parameters to 9 mathematical expressions. The problem of obtaining different information starting with the computed confidence interval for a specified method, information like confidence intervals boundaries, percentages of the experimental errors, the standard deviation of the experimental errors and the deviation relative to significance level was solves through implementation in PHP programming language of original algorithms. The cases of expression, which contain two binomial variables, were separately treated. An original method of computing the confidence interval for the case of two-variable expression was proposed and implemented. The graphical representation of the expression of two binomial variables for which the variation domain of one of the variable depend on the other variable was a real problem because the most of the software used interpolation in graphical representation and the surface maps were quadratic instead of triangular. Based on an original algorithm, a module was implements in PHP in order to represent graphically the triangular surface plots. All the implementation described above was uses in computing the confidence intervals and estimating their performance for binomial distributions sample sizes and variable.

  7. Low Power and High Sensitivity MOSFET-Based Pressure Sensor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Zhao-Hua; Ren Tian-Ling; Zhang Yan-Hong; Han Rui-Rui; Liu Li-Tian

    2012-01-01

    Based on the metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistor (MOSFET) stress sensitive phenomenon, a low power MOSFET pressure sensor is proposed. Compared with the traditional piezoresistive pressure sensor, the present pressure sensor displays high performances on sensitivity and power consumption. The sensitivity of the MOSFET sensor is raised by 87%, meanwhile the power consumption is decreased by 20%. (cross-disciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  8. Progress in extremely high brightness LED-based light sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoelen, Christoph; Antonis, Piet; de Boer, Dick; Koole, Rolf; Kadijk, Simon; Li, Yun; Vanbroekhoven, Vincent; Van De Voorde, Patrick

    2017-09-01

    Although the maximum brightness of LEDs has been increasing continuously during the past decade, their luminance is still far from what is required for multiple applications that still rely on the high brightness of discharge lamps. In particular for high brightness applications with limited étendue, e.g. front projection, only very modest luminance values in the beam can be achieved with LEDs compared to systems based on discharge lamps or lasers. With dedicated architectures, phosphor-converted green LEDs for projection may achieve luminance values up to 200-300 Mnit. In this paper we report on the progress made in the development of light engines based on an elongated luminescent concentrator pumped by blue LEDs. This concept has recently been introduced to the market as ColorSpark High Lumen Density LED technology. These sources outperform the maximum brightness of LEDs by multiple factors. In LED front projection, green LEDs are the main limiting factor. With our green modules, we now have achieved peak luminance values of 2 Gnit, enabling LED-based projection systems with over 4000 ANSI lm. Extension of this concept to yellow and red light sources is presented. The light source efficiency has been increased considerably, reaching 45-60 lm/W for green under practical application conditions. The module architecture, beam shaping, and performance characteristics are reviewed, as well as system aspects. The performance increase, spectral range extensions, beam-shaping flexibility, and cost reductions realized with the new module architecture enable a breakthrough in LED-based projection systems and in a wide variety of other high brightness applications.

  9. Highly Accurate Timestamping for Ethernet-Based Clock Synchronization

    OpenAIRE

    Loschmidt, Patrick; Exel, Reinhard; Gaderer, Georg

    2012-01-01

    It is not only for test and measurement of great importance to synchronize clocks of networked devices to timely coordinate data acquisition. In this context the seek for high accuracy in Ethernet-based clock synchronization has been significantly supported by enhancements to the Network Time Protocol (NTP) and the introduction of the Precision Time Protocol (PTP). The latter was even applied to instrumentation and measurement applications through the introduction of LXI....

  10. Magnetron based high energy S-band linac system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tiwari, T.; Krishnan, R.; Phatangare, Manoj

    2012-01-01

    This paper deals with the study of magnetron based high energy S-band linear accelerator (linac) system operating at spot frequency 2.998 GHz. The energy and dose are two important parameters of linac system which depend on input power of microwave source and length of linac tube. Here the author has studied how these parameters can be improved for side coupled standing wave S-band linac system

  11. High Resolution Mass Spectrometry of Polyfluorinated Polyether-Based Formulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimzon, Ian Ken; Trier, Xenia; Frömel, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    High resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) was successfully applied to elucidate the structure of a polyfluorinated polyether (PFPE)-based formulation. The mass spectrum generated from direct injection into the MS was examined by identifying the different repeating units manually and with the aid o......-fluorinated polymers. The information from MS is essential in studying the physico-chemical properties of PFPEs and can help in assessing the risks they pose to the environment and to human health. Graphical Abstract ᅟ....

  12. Quantifying high dimensional entanglement with two mutually unbiased bases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Erker

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We derive a framework for quantifying entanglement in multipartite and high dimensional systems using only correlations in two unbiased bases. We furthermore develop such bounds in cases where the second basis is not characterized beyond being unbiased, thus enabling entanglement quantification with minimal assumptions. Furthermore, we show that it is feasible to experimentally implement our method with readily available equipment and even conservative estimates of physical parameters.

  13. Recent results in mirror based high power laser cutting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Flemming Ove; Nielsen, Jakob Skov; Elvang, Mads

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, recent results in high power laser cutting, obtained in reseach and development projects are presented. Two types of mirror based focussing systems for laser cutting have been developed and applied in laser cutting studies on CO2-lasers up to 12 kW. In shipyard environment cutting...... speed increase relative to state-of-the-art cutting of over 100 % has been achieved....

  14. The cognitive approach on self-confidence of the girl students with academic failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ommolbanin Sheibani

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The consequences of behavior attributed to external factors as chance, luck or help of other people are effective on one's self confidence and educational improvement. The aim of this study is to assess the effect of teaching “locus of control” on the basis of cognitive approach on Yazd high school students' self confidence.Materials and Method: This descriptive analytic research is done as an experimental project by using pre-test and post-test method on 15 first-grade high school students in Yazd city during 1387-88 educational year. The participants were chosen by the multistage cluster random sampling. Fifteen students were also chosen as the control group. The instruments used in this research were Eysenk self confidence test and also the “locus of control” teaching program. A t-test was used for the statistical analysis of the present study.Results: The results of the statistical analyses showed that there is a significant difference between the experimental and control group (p=0.01 in increasing the self confidence. Also the results of the t-test revealed that there is no significant difference in the educational improvement of the experimental group before and after teaching “locus of control”.Conclusion: According to this study, teaching “locus of control” on the basis of the cognitive approach has a significant effect on the self confidence but it doesn't have any positive effect on educational improvement

  15. Are You Sure? Confidence about the Satiating Capacity of a Food Affects Subsequent Food Intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiöth, Helgi B; Ferriday, Danielle; Davies, Sarah R; Benedict, Christian; Elmståhl, Helena; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M; Hogenkamp, Pleunie S

    2015-06-24

    Expectations about a food's satiating capacity predict self-selected portion size, food intake and food choice. However, two individuals might have a similar expectation, but one might be extremely confident while the other might be guessing. It is unclear whether confidence about an expectation affects adjustments in energy intake at a subsequent meal. In a randomized cross-over design, 24 subjects participated in three separate breakfast sessions, and were served a low-energy-dense preload (53 kcal/100 g), a high-energy-dense preload (94 kcal/100 g), or no preload. Subjects received ambiguous information about the preload's satiating capacity and rated how confident they were about their expected satiation before consuming the preload in its entirety. They were served an ad libitum test meal 30 min later. Confidence ratings were negatively associated with energy compensation after consuming the high-energy-dense preload (r = -0.61; p = 0.001). The same relationship was evident after consuming the low-energy-dense preload, but only after controlling for dietary restraint, hunger prior to, and liking of the test meal (p = 0.03). Our results suggest that confidence modifies short-term controls of food intake by affecting energy compensation. These results merit consideration because imprecise caloric compensation has been identified as a potential risk factor for a positive energy balance and weight gain.

  16. Are You Sure? Confidence about the Satiating Capacity of a Food Affects Subsequent Food Intake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helgi B. Schiöth

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Expectations about a food’s satiating capacity predict self-selected portion size, food intake and food choice. However, two individuals might have a similar expectation, but one might be extremely confident while the other might be guessing. It is unclear whether confidence about an expectation affects adjustments in energy intake at a subsequent meal. In a randomized cross-over design, 24 subjects participated in three separate breakfast sessions, and were served a low-energy-dense preload (53 kcal/100 g, a high-energy-dense preload (94 kcal/100 g, or no preload. Subjects received ambiguous information about the preload’s satiating capacity and rated how confident they were about their expected satiation before consuming the preload in its entirety. They were served an ad libitum test meal 30 min later. Confidence ratings were negatively associated with energy compensation after consuming the high-energy-dense preload (r = −0.61; p = 0.001. The same relationship was evident after consuming the low-energy-dense preload, but only after controlling for dietary restraint, hunger prior to, and liking of the test meal (p = 0.03. Our results suggest that confidence modifies short-term controls of food intake by affecting energy compensation. These results merit consideration because imprecise caloric compensation has been identified as a potential risk factor for a positive energy balance and weight gain.

  17. From confident medical students to confident doctors through exposure to simulated and clinical resuscitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdoolraheem MY

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Mohammad Yusuf Abdoolraheem,1 Mohammad Farwana2 1GKT School of Medical Education, King’s College London, UK; 2Frimley Health Foundation Trust, Camberley, UKWe read with great interest the research article published by Aggarwal and Khan1 concerning the experiences of final-year medical students in terms of both cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR and discussions of advanced directives during clinical placements. While we would agree with the concluding opinion that there should be standardized formal education concerning CPR and “Do Not Attempt CPR” (DNACPR; the knowledge and skills developed during theoretical and simulation based teaching should also be complemented by clinical exposure to various scenarios such that the students are more prepared prior to starting their Foundation year training. View the original paper by Aggarwal and Khan. 

  18. Cluster-based DBMS Management Tool with High-Availability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Woo Chang

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available A management tool which is needed for monitoring and managing cluster-based DBMSs has been little studied. So, we design and implement a cluster-based DBMS management tool with high-availability that monitors the status of nodes in a cluster system as well as the status of DBMS instances in a node. The tool enables users to recognize a single virtual system image and provides them with the status of all the nodes and resources in the system by using a graphic user interface (GUI. By using a load balancer, our management tool can increase the performance of a cluster-based DBMS as well as can overcome the limitation of the existing parallel DBMSs.

  19. Registered nurse leadership style and confidence in delegation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saccomano, Scott J; Pinto-Zipp, Genevieve

    2011-05-01

      Leadership and confidence in delegation are two important explanatory constructs of nursing practice. The relationship between these constructs, however, is not clearly understood. To be successful in their roles as leaders, regardless of their experience, registered nurses (RNs) need to understand how to best delegate. The present study explored and described the relationship between RN leadership styles, demographic variables and confidence in delegation in a community teaching hospital. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey design, RNs employed in one acute care hospital completed questionnaires that measured leadership style [Path-Goal Leadership Questionnaire (PGLQ)] and confidence in delegating patient care tasks [Confidence and Intent to Delegate Scale (CIDS)]. Contrary to expectations, the data did not confirm a relationship between confidence in delegating tasks to unlicensed assistive personnel (UAPs) and leadership style. Nurses who were diploma or associate degree prepared were initially less confident in delegating tasks to UAPs as compared with RNs holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Further, after 5 years of clinical nursing experience, nurses with less educational experience reported more confidence in delegating tasks as compared with RNs with more educational experience. The lack of a relationship between leadership style and confidence in delegating patient care tasks were discussed in terms of the PGLQ classification criteria and hospital unit differences. As suggested by the significant two-way interaction between educational preparation and clinical nursing experience, changes in the nurse's confidence in delegating patient care tasks to UAPs was a dynamic changing variable that resulted from the interplay between amount of educational preparation and years of clinical nursing experience in this population of nurses. Clearly, generalizability of these findings to nurses outside the US is questionable, thus nurse managers must be familiar

  20. Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broten, G.S.; Wood, H.C.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network's ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor's response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in